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H. Duthel: THE END IS NEAR

Author: H. Duthel, www.duthel.de
Keywords: H. Duthel; Author; Philosoph; History; University
Language: English
Collection: opensource

Description

H. Duthel,








THE END IS NEAR

« The End of the Western World we have known since 1945 »



Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best-paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."

"Are We 'Running Out'? I Thought There Was 40 Years of the Stuff Left"

Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.

Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.

In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the worldâs population in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200-pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.

The effects of even a small drop in production can be devastating. For instance, during the 1970s oil shocks, shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple. The same thing happened in California a few years ago with natural gas: a production drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.

Fortunately, those price shocks were only temporary.

The coming oil shocks won't be so short-lived. They represent the onset of a new, permanent condition. Once the decline gets under way, production will drop (conservatively) by 3% per year, every year.

That estimate comes from numerous sources, not the least of which is Vice President Dick Cheney himself. In a 1999 speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney stated:

By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.

Cheney's assessment is supported by the estimates of numerous non-political, retired, and now disinterested scientists, many of whom believe global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline within the next five years. Unfortunately, many of these experts are nowhere near as optimistic as Dick Cheney was in 1999. Andrew Gould, CEO of the giant oil services firm Schlumberger, for instance, recently explained the global decline rate might be far higher than what Cheney predicted seven years ago:

An accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption.

An 8% yearly decline would cut global oil production by a whopping 50% in less than nine years. If a 5% cut in production caused prices to triple in the 1970s, what do you think a 50% cut is going to do?

Other experts are predicting decline rates as high as 10%-to-13%. Some geologists expect 2005 to be the last year of the cheap-oil bonanza, while many estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate "a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007," which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning around 2008-2012. As we slide down the down slope of the global oil production curve, we may find ourselves slipping into what some scientists are calling the "post-industrial stone age."

Dr. Richard Duncan: The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge. Ultimately, the energy-intensive industrial age may be little more than a blip in the course of human history:

Peak Oil is also called "Hubbert's Peak," named for the Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970. He also predicted global production would peak in 1995, which it would have had the politically created oil shocks of the 1970s not delayed the peak for about 10-15 years.
"Big deal. If gas prices get high, Iâll just drive less. Why should I give a damn?"

Because petrochemicals are key components too much more than just the gas in your car. As geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer points out in his article entitled, "Eating Fossil Fuels," approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1-calorie of food eaten in the US.

The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

1. Pesticides are made from oil;

2. Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 years after oil peaks;

3. With the exception of a few experimental prototypes, all farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil;

4. Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed across oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal;

5. In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. In Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed.

In short, people gobble oil like two-legged SUVs.

It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defence are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals.

In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern medicine, mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics, all computers and all high-tech devices.

Some specific examples may help illustrate the degree to which our technological base is dependent on fossil fuels:

1. The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 20 barrels of oil, which equates to 840 gallons, of oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will consume an amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice the carâs final weight.

2. The production of one gram of microchips consumes 630 grams of fossil fuels. According to the American Chemical Society, the construction of single 32 megabyte DRAM chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels in addition to 70.5 pounds of water.

3. The construction of the average desktop computer consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.

4. The Environmental Literacy Council tells us that due to the "purity and sophistication of materials (needed for) a microchip, . . . the energy used in producing nine or ten computers is enough to produce an automobile."

When considering the role of oil in the production of modern technology, remember that most alternative systems of energy â including solar panels/solar-Nan technology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, bio diesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. â rely on sophisticated technology.

In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper, and/or platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted, transported, and fashioned using oil-powered machinery. For instance, in his book, The Lean Years: Politics of Scarcity, author Richard J. Barnet writes:

To produce a ton of copper requires 112 million BTU's or the equivalent of 17.8 barrels of oil. The energy cost component of aluminium is twenty times higher.

Nuclear energy requires uranium, which is also discovered, extracted, and transported using oil-powered machinery.

Most of the feedstock (soybeans, corn) for bio fuels such as bio diesel and ethanol are grown using the high-tech, oil-powered industrial methods of agriculture described above.

In short, the so-called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil. Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, we have no way of scaling these alternatives to the degree necessary to power the modern world.

"Is the Modern Banking System Entirely Dependent on Cheap Oil?"
Yes.
The global financial system is entirely dependent on a constantly increasing supply of oil and natural gas. The relationship between the supply of oil and natural gas and the workings of the global financial system is arguably the key issue to understanding and dealing with Peak Oil, far more important than alternative sources of energy, energy conservation, or the development of new technologies, all of which are discussed in detail on page two of this site.

Dr. Colin Campbell presents an understandable model of this complex (and often difficult to explain) relationship:

It is becoming evident that the financial and investment community begins to accept the reality of Peak Oil, which ends the first half of the age of oil. They accept that banks created capital during this epoch by lending more than they had on deposit, being confident that tomorrowâs expansion, fuelled by cheap oil-based energy, was adequate collateral for todayâs debt. The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth, undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn erodes the valuation of most entities quoted on Stock Exchanges. The investment community however faces a dilemma. It desires to protect its own fortunes and those of its privileged clients while at the same time is reluctant to take action that might itself trigger the meltdown. It is a closely-knit community so that it is hard for one to move without the others becoming aware of his actions.

The scene is set for the Second Great Depression, but the conservatism and outdated mindset of institutional investors, together with the momentum of the massive flows of institutional money they are required to place, may help to diminish the sense of panic that a vision of reality might impose. On the other hand, the very momentum of the flow may cause a greater deluge when the foundations of the dam finally crumble. It is a situation without precedent.

Commentator Robert Wise explains the connection between energy and money as follows:

It's not physics, but it's true: money equals energy. Real, liquid wealth represents usable energy. It can be exchanged for fuel, for work, or for something built by the work of humans or fuel-powered machines. Real cost reflects the energy cost of doing something; real value reflects the energy expended to build something.

Nearly all the work done in the world economy -- all the manufacturing, construction, and transportation -- is done with energy derived from fuel. The actual work done by human muscle power is miniscule by comparison. And, the lion's share of that fuel comes from oil and natural gas, the primary sources of the world's wealth.

In October 2005, the normally conservative London Times acknowledged that the world's wealth might soon evaporate as we enter a technological and economic "Dark Age." In an article entitled "Waiting for the Lights to Go Out" Times reporter Bryan Appleyard wrote the following:

Oil is running out; the climate is changing at a potentially catastrophic rate; wars over scarce resources are brewing; finally, most shocking of all, we don't seem to be having enough ideas about how to fix any of these things.

Almost daily, new evidence is emerging that progress can no longer be taken for granted, that a new Dark Age is lying in wait for ourselves and our children.

. . . growth may be coming to an end. Since our entire financial order â interest rates, pension funds, insurance, stock markets â is predicated on growth, the social and economic consequences may be cataclysmic.

If you want to understand just how cataclysmic these consequences might be, consider the current crisis in the UK as a "preview of coming attractions." On October 23, 2005 the London Telegraph reported:

The Government has admitted that companies across Britain might be forced to close this winter because of fuel shortages. "The balance between supply and demand for energy is uncomfortably tight. I think if we have a colder -than-usual winter given the supply shortages, certain industries could suffer real difficulties." The admission was made after this newspaper revealed that Britain could be paralysed by energy shortages if the winter is colder than average.

The Met Office says there is a 67 per cent likelihood of prolonged cold this year after almost a decade of mild winters. That, coupled with high fuel prices, raises the fear that industry will not be able to cope.

The severe consequences of these relatively small shortfalls between supply and demand (less than 5%) have prompted the UK government to look into draconian energy conservation measures that would be enforced via house-to-house searches by a force of "energy-police."

Parts of the US are facing similarly dire possibilities. In December 2005, US News and World Report published a six-page article documenting some potentially nightmarish scenarios about to descend on the US. According to the normally conservative publication, people in the north-eastern US could be facing massive layoffs, rotating blackouts, permanent industrial shutdowns, and catastrophic breakdowns in public services this winter as a result of shortages of heating oil and natural gas.

This is happening despite the fact we are probably at least a few years away from seeing the peak in either oil or natural gas production. You have to ask yourself, "What's going to happen when the 'real problems' start showing up?"

"Are the Banks Aware of This Situation?"

The central ones certainly are. (Those new bankruptcy laws were passed for a reason.) On June 28, 2005, Gary Duncan, the economics editor for the UK based Sunday Times, reported that the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), aka "the central banker's central bank", had issued the following warnings regarding the economic fallout of further rises in the price of oil:

Oil prices may well remain high for a prolonged period of time . . . Further rises â if they materialize â may have more severe consequences than currently anticipated . . .

Everyone needs to commit to some unpleasant compromises now, in order to avoid even more unpleasant alternatives in the future . . .

Duncan goes on to summarize the bank's report as follows:

The US current account deficit meant that a further slide in the dollar was "almost inevitable", while the BIS sounded a warning that the deficit could yet lead to "a disorderly decline of the dollar, associated turmoil in other financial markets, and even recession."

A bank as crucially important to the world economy and as influential to the markets as the BIS doesnât just casually toss out terms like "unpleasant compromises", "severe consequences", "even more unpleasant alternatives", "turmoil," and "disorderly decline" in relation to the oil markets and the dollar (which is the reserve currency for all oil transactions in the world) unless something very nasty is brewing in the background.

On a similar note, Warren Buffet, the world's second richest man, recently warned of "mega-catastrophic risks" and "investment time bombs" currently threatening the global economy. Add those to a mix of sky-high energy prices, destabilizing resource wars, less than inspiring leadership, a possible currency collapse, moreâ petrodollar warfare", and well, the picture begins to look pretty grim, pretty quick.

"What Does All of This Mean for Me?"

What all of this means, in short, is that the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. If you are focusing solely on the price at the pump, more fuel-efficient forms of transportation, or alternative sources of energy, you arenât seeing the bigger picture.

"Is the Bush Administration Aware of This Situation?"
Of course they are.
As mentioned previously, Dick Cheney made the following statement in late 1999:

By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.

To put Cheneyâs statement in perspective, remember that the oil producing nations of the world is currently pumping at full capacity but are struggling to produce much more than 84 million barrels per day. Cheneyâs statement was a tacit admission of the severity and imminence of Peak Oil as the possibility of the world raising its production by such a huge amount is borderline ridiculous.
A report commissioned by Cheney and released in April 2001 was no less disturbing:
The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.

Not surprisingly, George W. Bush has echoed Dick Cheneyâs sentiments. In May 2001, Bush stated, "What people need to hear loud and clear is that weâre running out of energy in America."

One of George W. Bush's energy advisors, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, has spoken at length about the impending crisis.

(Note: Although he has advised Bush/Cheney, Simmons considers himself strongly non-partisan on energy issues. His writings are highly regarded amongst the energy and banking community for their grounding in non partisan, heavily documented, and virtually infallible research & analysis.)

Simmons' investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world.

Given Simmons' background, what he has to say about the situation is truly terrifying. For instance, in an August 2003 interview with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:

It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the worldâs 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our health â greater than anyone could ever imagine.

When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded:

I donât think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that itâs a certainty.

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Reviewer: philosophe - - December 2, 2007
Subject: Just one Word: GREAT
How to Plan for Peak Oil on a Limited Budget

Preparing for peak oil can be relatively easy, since the preparation is 75% mental, 15% physical, and 10% fiscal. Don’t be flabbergasted at what to do. Quit asking should I buy solar? Should I buy an axe? Should I buy a gun? The answers are no, no, and no. If in fact, billions of people will die, look at all the stuff that will be left behind. So, don’t buy it, pick it up off the ground when others leave it behind.

This feeling of a need to buy stuff is in fact the very reason why we have this predicament. We over-consume. The preparation problem is not addressed by buying more stuff; it’s addressed by mentally and physically getting used to the idea of getting by on less stuff. The more you learn, the less you need to carry on your back. People spend 80% of their time worrying about things that don’t happen. So, stop worry and start acting.

To illustrate the absurdity of buying stuff, what would you buy? It’s impossible to know what to buy, because the event of peak oil is unknown in both time and scope. Preparing for peak oil is not like preparing for a hurricane, which we know, will hit sometime next week, so we will buy wood to board up the doors, some extra batteries, and maybe get out of town for awhile. Peak oil will not be some isolated calamity that you somehow survive and wake up the next morning and count your blessings. Preparing for peak oil is all about preparing yourself mentally and physically for a complete and permanent change in lifestyle. It is first realizing that there will be no one to come to your rescue the next morning - there will only be you and those around you, and the realization that the next morning will be more of the same, maybe worse than the day before. It’s the realization that you will have to learn to get by using less. So start now by getting over the idea you have to buy stuff and get into more debt.

So how do you prepare for a situation like peak oil, which is so indefinite in time and scope? Since we don’t know exactly what will happen and when, any preparation has to prepare you for any contingency at any time - now or 20 years from now. If you do the following, you and your family will be prepared for peak oil or any thing else life may throw at you. Those things are: (1) develop the right attitude; (2) stay healthy; (3) get out of debt; (4) decide where your going to live (build your shelter); (5) buy a good sleeping bag; (6) have a month of food on hand; (7) get good peers.

Attitude
Positive attitude is the most important aspect of surviving anything, including life in general. Life in general is just one big survival course and we all die in the end anyway. So life isn’t about surviving death, it’s about enjoying what time you have. A positive attitude is important to success in life and it’s the difference between living and dying in a true survival situation. All survival courses begin by telling you to get the right attitude, no matter what. To survive anything, including life, you must first adopt a "can do," "will survive" attitude. If you don’t believe you will survive, you won’t, plain and simple.

You have to always believe that you will survive; you can’t be a quitter. It’s the same thing you teach your kids everyday, don’t quit. Go to school each day, do your homework, try, don’t quit, and everything else will work itself out. Why is it that simply not quitting will get you to the finish line? It’s the law of averages; it's because others will quit. As others quit, it moves you forward. A good example of this is the old joke about two hunters. Two hunters see a bear coming into their campsite and one starts putting on his running shoes. The other hunter says, "You can’t outrun that bear." The first guy says, "I’m not going to outrun the bear. I’m going to outrun you."

In any situation, all you have to do is outlast the ones that quit. Think of peak oil as the bear. All you have to do is outrun the others, not the bear. Don’t worry if others will quit, they always do. Look at all the millions of people that drop out of high school. Of those that do finish high school fewer go on to college, and fewer still finish college. These are people that quit even though it’s so easy to get through high school and college. In America, an average student can make it through high school and college if they simply don’t quit. I made a "C" average my whole life, but now everyone thinks I’m successful simply because I got my degrees and became a lawyer. I’m a lawyer not because I’m brilliant, but because I finished and never gave up. If a person doesn’t quit and gets through high school and college, they will finish ahead of the vast majority. So, with peak oil, have a good attitude, never quit, and know that you and your family will survive. As they say in Army Ranger School, "Hard times don’t last, hard people do."

Health

It never makes any since not to be physically fit and healthy. Staying fit and healthy should be a part of life whether you are preparing for peak oil or not. But for those who need some extra motivation to get in shape, find it in peak oil. How can anyone believe in peak oil and not be in shape? For example, there may be little or no medicines right? Vast numbers of Americans, both young and old, suffer from obesity and are kept alive by a health system that may not survive peak oil. Those unhealthy people can barely walk up a flight of stairs right now. What are they going to do if there are no medicines to support their unhealthy lifestyle and no air conditioning, elevators, escalators, or motorized shopping carts to get their groceries? These unhealthy people are the ones that will quit first and not survive peak oil - don’t you be one of them. All these millions of unhealthy people have little chance of making it. The bear of peak oil will swallow them up. All you have to do is outlast them, and that won’t be hard if you just do a little today to get in shape and stay healthy. Just a little exercise and you will be okay. Basic physical fitness costs you and your family nothing, but pays big dividends not only in everything you do but also in your mental attitude - remember, attitude is the first key to survival.
So, you had better be on your way to physical fitness or you will be swallowed up by the bear of peak oil. The more physically fit you are, the less sick you will be. Further, in a culture that will be more and more dependent upon physical labour, you will be prepared to take on that challenge. This means you start eating right and getting some exercise. If you smoke, quit. You don’t have to join a gym. You don’t have to buy anything. All it takes is a little discipline to set aside a some time each day. Exercising a mere three times a week and practicing some discipline at the dinner table will put you ahead of millions of others. Do some pushes and sit-ups three times a week, and run, walk or bike three times a week and you will be okay - cut the deserts and fried foods.
If you believe in the calamities of peak oil but are not willing to get in shape and start eating right, then you don’t really believe in peak oil, it’s only "peaked" your interest. Further, if you can’t discipline yourself to workout, you don’t have the winning attitude it is going to take to survive peak oil, and probably won’t survive life’s normal ups and downs. Life is and always has been about survival of the fittest. Survival of the fittest, literally, starts now. Make sure you and your family keep regular dental and health exams each year - prevention now, because there may be no future cure.

Debt

Get out of debt! You should begin getting out of debt immediately. I say this as a lawyer. Everyday, I see people’s lives ruined because of debt they can’t sustain. One minute, they are happy thinking their world is okay. Then, they are suddenly and completely debilitated by an injury or illness, or they lose their job, and their financial house of cards comes crashing down on them. Peak oil will do the same. Get out of debt now. This requires as much discipline as getting in shape. Most of you will probably have to completely change your lives to get out of debt. You should do this now while you control it before peak oil forces it on you.
By definition, getting out of debt doesn’t cost you anything, but it’s not easy. You must learn to live on less. You will be preparing yourself and your family for a post peak oil economy and keeping the creditors away at the same time. Hopefully, as you get out of debt you will also be stockpiling some cash savings and increasing assets. Getting out of debt is like the old credit card commercials where the hordes go after those people with high interest credit cards and pass by the low interest credit card holder. Thus, if you get out of debt, the bear of peak oil will pass you by and go gobble up those millions of other Americans who are out spending like there is no tomorrow. The problem with the philosophy of spending like there is no tomorrow is that it’s unrealistic. There is always another tomorrow, and no one knows what it will bring. So, be prepared for that unknown tomorrow by getting out of debt.
There are always ways to cut costs. You save money not by getting a better paying job, but by cutting costs/expenses. To save money and get out of debt, you need to immediately quit buying stuff that you don’t need. Use that money saved to get you out of debt. If you have to, cancel all nonessentials like cable, newspaper, and cell phone, quit eating out and start eating at home. Cancel your credit cards!
Getting out of debt may mean downsizing your life-style like selling a car that’s too expensive or a house that you can’t afford. The home and the car are the biggest expenses for most people. People can often downsize a home by selling one that’s too expensive, make a little money on it, and then buy a cheaper smaller house. Bottom line - get out of a lifestyle that you can probably barely afford now and certainly can’t afford in a time of crisis.
Learn to discipline you buying - before you buy anything, ask whether you need it or desire it. There is a big difference between need and desire. For example, you need to eat, but you don’t need to eat desert. Craving a desert is desire, not need. Save the money, don’t get the desert, and you get in shape and out of debt at the same time. In this way, you are preparing for peak oil and so far, you haven’t spent a dime. By recognizing the difference between need and desire, you are also working on your attitude, which is so critical to surviving a changing world.
Your Home
Shelter is the first priority in a true survival situation - then water, then food. In a true survival situation, more people die of hypothermia than for lack of thirst or food. This will be true with peak oil. So, let’s talk about your shelter. Your shelter is your home. In a true survival situation, you need a shelter near a source of water and out of the extremes of the environment if possible. So, how do you select a home site meeting these criteria? Here are some considerations:
(1) Own your home if possible. You need to own if possible, not rent. Owning a home is always the best thing financially, peak oil or no peak oil. Keep the home simple and inexpensive. Further, it is usually harder to get a person out of a home they own than it is to evict a tenant. Everyone does not need his or her own bedroom and bathroom. Abe Lincoln was raised in a one-room cabin, and he turned out okay, and so will your kids.
(2) You need a home with a yard. You need a yard to be able to have a garden, collect water, etc.
(3) Don’t live in a condo or any type of multi-housing. Don’t live in an apartment or a trailer park. Condos and apartments probably don’t have any usable yard space and become unbearable if the heat or AC goes off. That housing is unliveable if the elevators don’t work or the water shuts off. So, move to a home and get out of the apartment or condo.

(4) Live in a mild climate area. Live in a part of the United States where you can will not need heating or air-conditioning to survive. The area also needs ample rainfall each year (not Arizona or New Mexico). For example, in my home state of Arkansas, the climate is mild enough you can survive the winter, if you had to, with a blanket. You can survive summers by sitting on your porch. There are no droughts here, at least not yet.
(5) Live in a state where your home is not subject to foreclosure by any creditor other than your home lender. In many states, Arkansas for example, the home is exempt from foreclosure by anyone other than the home mortgage holder. So, if you get your house paid off in Arkansas, it is truly your castle. Move to a state where your home is exempt from creditors. This makes the most financial and survival sense.
(6) Downsize your home. Many people have too much home. Big homes are expensive to heat and cool, expensive to keep up, and cost more. Downsize everything, including your home. Do more with less! Get lean and mean.
(7) What home should you buy? Any small home in a small community, within walking distance of a school and store, a home with a yard, preferably an acre lot to plant a garden, with a pond or a swimming pool for a source of water (pools hold up to 15,000 gallons of water or more), in an area with ample yearly rainfall. You can buy homes in small communities in rural states very cheap. Check any of the following states: Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, and Arkansas. At one time, some communities in Kansas were offering free lots to anyone who would build a home on them and take up a residence there.
So far, nothing I have suggested has cost you anything. However, if you get your body and budget in shape, and you make sure your shelter is in the right place and the right cost, you stand a good chance of surviving the bear of peak oil; at least you will be ahead of the curve.

Your Sleeping Bag

There’s only one item I recommend you buy, and that’s a good sleeping bag. A good sleeping bag is worth its weight in gold. You need a good sleeping bag for many reasons. In a true survival situation, most people die because of hypothermia, not because of lack of water or food. A person can die of hypothermia in temperatures well above freezing. Just getting cold and wet at 60 degrees can make someone go hypothermic. In any survival situation, maintaining body temperature is critical to surviving. Further, getting sleep is essential to a good attitude and essential for making good decisions. Cave men would have killed for a good sleeping bag.
How does a good sleeping bag have anything to do with peak oil? As fuel supplies dwindle, people wonder how to heat their homes without any home heating oils. The answer is easy, a $400 or less sleeping bag. I’ve slept comfortably in the snowy Italian Alps and in Alaska with no fire, no tent, and no ground pad - all I had was a good sleeping bag. I’ve spent many nights outside, and I am here to say that a good sleeping bag can keep you cozy warm in any climate under any conditions, be it rain, sleet, or snow. Even if you now live in a warm climate like southern Florida, you never know where you will be in 10 years if forced to migrate for some reason because of changes brought about by peak oil. You too will need a good sleeping bag. It is your mobile shelter.
A good sleeping bag is a survival must and first on my list of survival/peak oil equipment. For a one-time expense of $400 or less, you never have to worry about electric heat, wood heat, gas heat, or where you are going to sleep. The sleeping bag is lightweight, will last a lifetime if cared for, and easily transportable. If you trust me and buy a sleeping bag, buy a synthetic bag, not a down bag. Synthetic bags keep you warm even when wet, down bags don’t. Always buy a bag with a temperature rating at least 15 degrees colder than your average winters. In my opinion, you should buy a synthetic bag rated down to minus 20 or 25 degrees (trust me). Here are some good dealers in cheap synthetic sleeping bags - "Cheaper than Dirt" and "High Peak." I recently bought three synthetic sleeping bags rated down to -20 degrees for $60 each. I can survive anywhere now. Have bag, will travel.

Food

Have a month’s supply of food on hand ($500). There are numerous websites dealing with food supplies etc. But basically, buy things you will eat. Remember, though, you are eating to survive, not for taste. When choosing foods, dry milk, white rice and dried beans will last almost indefinitely if stored right (and their cheap, a fifty pound bag of white rice costs about $13.00). Canned foods will last two years, longer if stored right. Honey is good food, stores for a long time, and is also a good home medicine. Honey is a natural antibiotic and can be used to treat wounds, even gunshot wounds and burns. Do an Internet search on honey and wound care. Learn all about it. Iodised salt is a must and will last indefinitely. Pure sugar is a must, and lasts almost indefinitely. Peanut butter is the best all round survival food. You don’t have to heat or cook it, it comes in its own container, you can eat it with your finger, and its crammed full of protein, crabs and fats. It will keep you going. It lasts two years on the shelf.


Peers

We all know that peers are an important part of growing up, but they are just as important to us as adults as they were to us as kids. Though I’ve been through many extreme survival courses, I have no illusions that I could survive alone for very long. Surviving alone in the wilderness is for movies. Even cave men lived in small groups and depended on the group to survive. Nations are just bigger groups. Peak oil will not be the death of us all, there will be survivors. To survive peak oil and life, you are going to have to be surrounded by good, honest, trustworthy people - people that help each other out. A group provides strength and security in many ways. For example, you cannot learn everything you need to learn. It would be impossible to know all trades or even know what trades to learn, so just find a community of people, develop good relationships, and you will be okay. The collective knowledge and power of your community is what will get you through peak oil.

If you feel the need to tell friends or family, be forewarned that most people don't take too kindly to this information. Your best bet, in my opinion, is either send them an email with a link to www.duthel.eu and some of the other excellent Peak Oil websites or give them a copy of the documentary End of Suburbia.

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