256 LAW AND FREEDOM IN HISTORY

wave-lengths, while the first regular cycle (currebat A.D. 1568-1672),
with its duration of 104 years, had been equal to the sum of a couple of
'Kondratieff cycles' of average length.

It is also noticeable that the shortness of the total span of the overture
by comparison with the spans of the three regular cycles was accounted
for mainly by the abnormal shortness of its two spells of Peace, and that,
by contrast, its two bouts of War were not appreciably shorter than
those of the regular cycles. The breathing-space after the general war
had lasted for 11 years in the overture, as compared with 9 years in the
first cycle, 20 years in the second, and 33 years in the third; the general
peace after the supplementary wars had lasted for 9 years in the over-
ture, as compared with 24 years in the first cycle, 29 years in the second,
and 43 years in the third. On the other hand the general war had con-
tinued for 31 years (A.D. 1494-1525) in the overture as compared with 41
years each (A.D. 1568-1609 and A.D. 1672-1713) in the first and second
cycles, and 23 years (A.D. 1792-1815) in the third cycle, while the bout
of supplementary wars had continued for 23 years (A.D. 1536-59) in the
overture as compared with 30 years each (A.D. 1618-48 and A.D. 1733-63)
in the first and second cycles and 23 years (A.D. 1848-71) in the third
cycle.

Our table also brings out a tendency, which we have already noticed
by anticipation,1 for the number of war years in a cycle to diminish, and
for the ratio between the numbers of war years and of peace years to
change to the numerical advantage of the peace years, with each succes-
sive repetition of the sequence.

This tendency does not, it is true, pronounce itself so sharply when
measured in terms of individual years as when measured in terms of the
groups of years, representing alternate bouts of War and spells of Peace,
into which the sequence has been analysed; for, though the overall
length of the bout that we have labelled 'the general war' falls off
strikingly from the figure of 41 years at which it stands in the first and
second cycles to its 23 years in the third cycle and its 4 years in the
fourth, these reductions of the span are partly offset by concurrent
eliminations of intercalated peace years. No less than 15 peace years, for
example, were intercalated in the general war of A.D. 1672-1713—con-
sisting, as this did, of three constituent bouts separated by two truces
lasting from A.D. 1678 to 1688 and from A.D. 1697 to 1702, whereas in
the General War of A.D. 1792-1815 the truces following, in A.D. 1802-3,
the abortive conclusion of peace at Amiens and preceding, in A.D. 1814-
15, 'the Hundred Days* were matters, not of years, but of months, while
the sole truce during the General War of A.D. 1914-18 was the fraterniza-
tion on the first Christmas Day after the outbreak of hostilities. When,
however, the overall figures have been duly corrected to allow for such
intercalations of peace years and peace months, the tendency towards a
diminution in the relative lengths of the war periods still stands out

basis -would be to measure the intervals between restorations of general peace; and on
this basis the length of Regular Cycle I would work out at 89 years (1550-1648), that of
Cycle II at 115 years (1648-1763), and that of Cycle III at 108 years (1763-1871).
* On p. zss, above.