gg THE ASSASSIN'S SHADOW LIES ACROSS JAPAN

1914. The Japanese military machine is not dissimilar. It has
been built for war, feels prepared for war, and would welcome war.
It has never yet been beaten and possesses unlimited self-confidence.
I am not an alarmist but I believe that we should have our eyes
open to all possible future contingencies. The facts of history would
render it criminal to close them.

Respectfully yours.

MANCHURIA AND THE LYTTON REPORT

Tokyo, October 8, 1932
Strictly Confidential

DEAR MR. SECRETARY,—Since my last letter to you the two out-
standing events in Japan have been the recognition of Manchukuo
and the publication of the Lytton Report. The hastiness of the
Government's action in recognizing Manchukuo had a twofold
purpose : to confront the League of Nations and the United States
with an accomplished fact before the Lytton Report could be acted
upon, and to afford a sop to the Army to prevent their wrecking the
present Saito Government and perhaps setting up a military dictator-
ship. The net result has been the internal pacification of the
country, which is a great deal less restive than before the step
was taken.

The Japanese were apparently surprised when no action was
taken by the United States at the moment of recognition and that
the step caused so comparatively little repercussion in the world at
large. This feeling may have been one of relief, but I am inclined
to believe that the relief was tinged with a measure of disappoint-
ment, because in the present temper of the country the last thing
the Japanese really want is to be ignored by the nations. They
prefer dramatics.

The reaction to the Lytton Report here has been just what was
expected—a general condemnation of the findings and an outburst
of self-righteous indignation, but without any serious attempt to
refute the findings save by blunt denials of their accuracy. This
public bluster is, however, not shared by the saner and more moderate
thinkers, of whom one, Baron Hayashi, Master of the Emperor's
Household and a thoroughly outspoken' man, recently observed
to a group of friends that he considered the Report an admirable
and well-balanced document, especially Chapter 6 indicating that
the Manchukuo regime had been set up by the Japanese military.
There are plenty of people in Japan who have serious misgivings as
to where the Manchurian venture is going to lead the country, but
the press does not dare to publish their views. The military are
still completely in control.

In explaining the present psychology of the Japanese, two recent
conversations are significant. Recently Prince Chichibu invited to