SECRETARY STIMSON REPLIES 71

Japanese nation together in opposition to the League and the United
States. Any hint of force, either military or economic, I believe,
would result in the uniting of the nation behind the military and
would completely overwhelm the more moderate influences which
are working beneath the surface to restore Japan to its former high
place in the councils of nations. Moral pressure, however, I think,
can be exerted without this danger and might tend to widen the
rift now beginning to be noticed between the military and the moderate
elements. Eventually the force of public opinion throughout the
world, coupled with the difficulty and overburdening expense of
pacifying Manchuria, might cause Japan to change its attitude
towards the problem. Anyway, as I see it, it is our only chance,
as the threat of material pressure would almost certainly have the
opposite effect from that desired. Thus the time factor is important,
and a gradual rather than an immediate solution of the problem
indicated.

My speech in Osaka appears to have been helpful. Its main purpose
was to correct the general belief here that the American people are
not behind you in your active support of the peace treaties. The
contrary was clearly brought out by the words :

As for the American people, they are heart and soul behind this
[peace] movement and behind those who have laboured to bring
about a situation where warfare between civilized nations will
be as extinct as human slavery in civilized nations is to-day. This
peace movement represents a fundamental, united, and unanimous
desire of the American people as a whole. The position of the
United States in this issue is clear-cut and unambiguous. It has
repeatedly been made clear.

On the other hand, the speech was eminently friendly in tone and
substance, so that the pill was administered without causing irritation.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs last night expressed to me personally
his appreciation of the address.

May I take this occasion to say that I think your instructions to
Norman Davis and Hugh Wilson relating to the Manchurian issue
meet the situation exactly ?

Respectfully yours,

SECRETARY STIMSON REPLIES

January 21, 1933

The fortnightly pouch came in late last night with a very pleasant
personal letter from Mr. Stimson in which he says, among other
things:

The picture which, you give of the situation is substantially in
accord with ours, and our line of procedure has been substantially
in accord with that which you suggest.