RUSSO-JAPANESE TENSION BEGINS TO EASE ln

so* In addition, the modern urge for improved living conditions has
affected rural areas, and the people there are no longer content
with the simple hard life of their ancestors. These factors, added
to the heavy taxation which rural communities have to bear, have
caused a great deal of unrest in the country districts. They naturally
desire relief, and are showing more interest in, and opposition to,
heavy military expenditures than they have ever done before.

(6) The highest influences in the country are pacific. The Em-
peror is a man of mild and peaceful character. The era of his reign
is characterized by the word " showa," which he himself chose and
which means " enlightened peace." There is no reason to believe
that he approved of the Manchurian adventure, for the matter did
not lie in his decision. Prince Saionji, the Genro, and Count Makino
are profoundly imbued with the horrors of war. Since 1931 they
have not been able to make their view publicly felt, but they are
constantly working behind the scenes and it is believed that their
influence is gradually increasing.

The Prime Minister is personally an influence more peaceful than
bellicose. Hirota, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, has displayed
unexpected strength and is personally largely responsible for the
comparatively milder tone of the press since he took office and for
a new orientation in endeavouring to develop better relations with
foreign countries. A strong group of liberals in the country have
been steadily working behind the scenes and are, it is believed, de-
veloping more strength than they formerly possessed. At a recent
dinner at the Tokyo Club in honour of Sir Francis Lindley, the
British Ambassador, and Ambassador Debuchi, Baron Hayashi, the
chairman, in introducing the speakers, said slowly and with firmness,
in a tone nearly menacing and emphasizing his remark with a bang
of his fist on the table : " We want peace ! " This is a small detail,
but Baron Hayashi is Grand Master of Ceremonies of the Imperial
Court and one of the Emperor's favourites.

(7) From the point of view of the Army itself—for in the last
analysis the Army is likely to have the last word as to whether it
shall be peace or war—new factors may exert a restraining influence.
Even in the Army itself there are not lacking sane elements who
are aware of the seriousness of a Japanese-Soviet conflict and who
question whether the end to be attained would justify the risks run—
whether the game would be worth the candle.

.Undoubtedly the Army has complete confidence as to its ability
to take Vladivostok and the Maritime Provinces and probably all of
the territory up to Lake Baikal, for the Russians, separated by several
thousand kilometres from their home base of supplies, will always
be in a strategically hazardous position. But their defences in the
East have been materially strengthened, and their air forces in
Vladivostok and elsewhere along the frontier constitute a serious
threat to Tokyo and other important Japanese cities. Furthermore,
American recognition of Soviet Russia has injected an important