172 FROM ABORTIVE REVOLUTION TO OPEN WAR

Germany's need for colonies. He spoke ironically regarding the anti-
Comintern agreement. The Ambassador emphasized the fact that
Soviet-Japanese relations had suffered a severe set-back as a result of
the German-Japanese agreement.

AS JAPAN PREPARED TO FIGHT THE WORLD

January i, 1937

The New Year for Japan, so far as her international relations are
concerned, opens in an ominous key. Not only has her reputation
in the world, suffered an important deterioration during the past
year, but her relations with Great Britain, Soviet Russia and China
are on a far from satisfactory footing and recently have been growing
worse. With the Dutch East Indies relations have improved. Only
with the United States, among her nearer neighbours, can it be said
that the status quo has been maintained, but with the expiration of
the Washington Naval Treaty, due to Japan's intransigeance, and the
risk of a race in sea power and fortifications, the long future as
contrasted with the immediate present holds out no evident grounds
for optimism. *

For this unhappy situation Japan herself is primarily to blame, for
she has played her cards unwisely and is now reaping the logical
results. It is the old story of the defects arising out of a dual control
of foreign policy wherein the civil authorities of the Government,
including the Prime Minister and the Foreign Office, are overridden
by the military and are subject to the behests of the Army and Navy,
which know or care little about developing good relations with
foreign countries but without whose support the cabinet could not
long survive. We saw very much the same thing working out in
Germany in 1914.

United States

General Araki observed to the British Ambassador a year or two
ago that if it were not for the exclusion clause of the Immigration
Act of 1924, the relations between Japan and the United States
might be considered as thoroughly satisfactory. While it is true that
no current controversies of prime importance are at present sufficiently
acute seriously to disturb those relations, nevertheless we should not
close our eyes to the fact that several current issues may in due
course become acute and are potentially hazardous.

First and foremost is the naval issue which has automatically arisen
with the termination of the Washington Naval Treaty. How the
future will shape up in this respect we cannot yet foresee, but it is
safe to say that if a race in naval building and in the construction of
fortifications results, the suspicion and uneasiness engendered will
inevitably make for tenseness in those relations. Other issues which
appear to be potentially disturbing are Japan's aggressive policy in
China with the possibility of that policy eventually interfering with