JAPAN REFUSES TO ATTEND THE BRUSSELS CONFERENCE 195

anyone else force China to make peace ? And if peace is not made,
can the Japanese afford to withdraw any substantial number of their
troops ?

They must hold the ground already won. Their lines of supply are
becoming more and more attenuated. How long can they afford
to maintain this great force in China with constant guerrilla war-
fare seeking to harry and deplete their strength ? And what about
Soviet Russia—after the Japanese forces are thus thoroughly in-
volved and correspondingly weakened ? That, it seems to me, is the
big imponderable factor in the situation. But, in the meantime,
will China collapse, morally disintegrate and descend into utter
chaos ? That, of course, is what the Japanese are aiming at; it
explains their constant bombing of defenceless cities. These are just
a few of the headaches that confront us.

Meanwhile, what can the Nine-Power Conference accomplish ?
Press the combatants to negotiate for peace—and get thoroughly
rebuffed ? Try economic sanctions and ignominiously fail as they
did in the case of Abyssinia ? Or content themselves with moral
thunderbolts which would have about as much effect in Japan as a
mild hailstorm in the country ?

Perhaps the answer to some or all of these questions will be clearer
by the time that this inadequate soliloquy reaches American shores.

JAPAN REFUSES TO ATTEND THE BRUSSELS
CONFERENCE

October 21, 1937

A diplomatic colleague said that he had yesterday made renewed
representations to Hirota, repeating the representations made on
October 15, in an effort to persuade the Japanese Government to
participate in the Nine-Power Conference at Brussels. He advanced
the argument that the Japanese case had gone by default at Geneva
and that Brussels would offer a further opportunity to present Japan's
case, which would be carefully considered by the assembled powers
who wished above all to be helpful towards arriving at a peaceful
settlement of the Sino-Japanese hostilities. The Minister replied
that since his last talk with the Ambassador he had consulted a
great number of prominent people here and that the sentiment
against participation in the conference, especially among the leaders
of the political parties, was practically unanimous. However, as no
invitation had yet been received, no final decision had yet been
reached.

October 22, 1937

Yoshizawa told Dooman yesterday that so far as the Foreign Office
was concerned, the Nine-Power Conference invitation would definitely
be declined, and that a favourable reply could not be expected so