2g0 ONE WORLD I TWO WARS

to respect the interests and rights of the United States in China, the
pressure for an embargo against Japan next winter is going to be
great and Congress may demand it. By negative steps I mean
cessation of the bombings, indignities, ^ and other flagrant inter-
ferences with American rights ; by positive steps I mean something
like the opening of the Yangtze to foreign trade as concrete evidence
to present to the American public. That thesis I am presenting to
all with whom I talk and shall continue to do so unreservedly. This
is not a threat but the statement of an objective fact. If and when
we impose an embargo we must expect to see American-Japanese
relations go steadily downhill; it will then be too late for any possible
hope of improvement, and that is why the coming months will be
critical.

AMERICA'S ALTERNATIVES IN ITS RELATIONS
TOWARDS JAPAN

December i, 1939

A Japanese recently remarked that what Japan most needs at
present is a statesman of the calibre of Prince Ito. No such figure,
alas, has emerged nor is likely to emerge, and through lack of strong
statesmanship Japan is bound to suffer. The Government is weak
and is " floundering.55 Yet to control and unify the heterogeneous
forces in Japan to-day would require a statesman of almost super-
human ability.

The crux of Japanese-American relations lies in the fact that
while the Government is prone to give us soothing assurances, no
individual or group in Japan is strong enough to bring about the
full implementation of those assurances. There is little doubt that
the great majority of Japanese, bpth in the Government and out of
it, who know anything about foreign relationships want good rela-
tions with the United States, but they have yet to grasp securely the
power of directing policy and taking measures in the effective way
which alone can bring about good relations. International relations
cannot thrive on mere pious expressions of intentions. I have told
them this, and am steadily continuing so to tell them, but it does
little good. The outlook for the future relations between the United
States and Japan* does not now appear to be bright.

It is this outlook that now requires our most careful study and
concern.

Two Main Desiderata

Before proceeding further with these observations, I wish to make
clear the following points : my functions as American Ambassador
to Japan, as I conceive them, and therefore the functions of the
Embassy, involve two fundamental duties : first, the maximum pro-
tection and promotion of American interests in this field ; second,
the maintenance and furtherance of good relations between the