g28 ONE WORLD : TWO WARS

About that, we shall see in due course. At any rate, Mr. Matsuoka
could hardly have picked a worse moment for his visit, for on his
arrival in Berlin the Nazi celebration of getting Yugoslavia into the
Axis had turned to complete discomfiture, while on the very day of
his arrival in Rome, or thereabouts, the serious Italian defeat in the
naval battle of Matapan was announced. The appearance of a
black cat could hardly have been more untimely than Matsuoka's
arrival in the two capitals.

The domestic situation in Japan, both politically and economically,
was steadily growing worse and dissatisfaction with Konoye and his
cabinet was growing. This dissatisfaction led, in the early days of
April, to a revamping of the cabinet with the inclusion of Ogura,
Admiral Toyoda, and General Suzuki. Ogura is the head of the
great business firm of Sumitomo and, incidentally, President of the
America-Japan Society of the Kwansai (Osaka). Toyoda is sound
and sensible. I know both of them, Ogura very well and Toyoda
fairly well. Hiranuma is no doubt responsible for these changes and
is, we believe, directing affairs behind the scenes, lending strength
to Prince Konoye's weakness. The result should be healthy and we
may expect to see a restraining influence on the hothead extremists.
In fact, we begin to see symptoms of at least a slight cooling of pro-
Axis sentiment.

But in the last analysis, as I have continually said, future develop-
ments will depend in large measure on the result of affairs in Europe,
particularly the Battle of Britain.

With great reluctance and disappointment I have given up all
thought of taking leave of absence this spring. This is no time for
vacations while the world burns, and since these coming months
may well be critical for Europe, they may bring equally critical
developments in the Far East. It would be very easy to persuade
myself that other hands could run the Embassy adequately during
the comparatively brief period necessary to enable me to accept an
important academic invitation in the United States in June, and that
during that period nothing of importance might happen. But, on
the other hand, something of importance might happen when only
the Ambassador could exact influence. It nearly breaks my heart
because, in the quiet watches of the night, I have sometimes dared
to let myself hope that such an academic invitation might some
day be extended, and now that it has been extended I can't accept
it. The old New England conscience wins.

RUMOURS OF A JAPANESE ATTACK ON SINGAPORE

GO THE ROUNDS
April 15, 1941

During my absence in Kawana a report was circulating in Tokyo
that Japan intended to attack Singapore within a few days, even
before Matauoka's return. It became so persistent that some of the