348 ONE WORLD : TWO WARS

Japan's accepted commitments, and (3) a decreasing confidence in
the good faith of Germany.

It is being said by foreign observers in Tokyo that the Imperial
Conference has decided, before attacking the Maritime Provinces, to
sit on the fence and watch the general trend of the German-Soviet
war, and in the meantime to push the south-west advance. In this
plan the first step is-alleged to be aimed at Indo-China, with the
purpose of acquiring bases on Camranh Bay and elsewhere, but to
proceed gradually and step by step in order to avoid an open conflict
with the United States. The view is also expressed that this alleged
decision to push the southward advance is actually aimed at Germany
so that Japan may consolidate her position to the southward before
Germany is in a position to interfere with Japanese ambitions after
attaining full victory in the war.

It is generally held that what Germany most wants Japan to do is
to take steps which will tend to divert America's attention from Europe
and that she is not pressing Japan to intervene in Soviet Russia. If
these are actually the desires of Germany, it would seem that the
above-described plan attributed to the Imperial Conference would
fairly well coincide therewith.

On the other hand, the " momentous decision " which the Imperial
Conference is alleged to have taken may well be a determination to
follow a policy of watchful waiting in the hope of a collapse in the
Soviet Union. Several points tend to support this estimate, namely,
(i) Prince Konoye's statement to Menken of Paramount Pictures
that Japan will honour its commitments both to Germany and to
Soviet Russia, (2) Mr. Matsuoka's statement to the Soviet Ambassador,

and (3) the Foreign Minister's statement to ----- on July 4. In

connection with the last point, the impression which Matsuoka wished

to convey to -----, namely, that unanimity of opinion prevails in

Japan and that the confidence among the members of the Tripartite
Pact remains unimpaired, is so palpably contrary to the truth that we
must take the Minister's statement with reserve.

JAPAN'S MOBILIZATION EFFORTS GO INTO

HIGH GEAR
July 12, 1941

According to persistent rumours in Tokyo, certain categories of
reservists are being called up by the military authorities, but these
measures do not appear to constitute more than precautionary steps
natural in the present situation.

This was one of the early indications of the large mobilization
movement which was continued during the next several weeks, and
reports soon began to come in from Kobe, Dairen, Mukden, and
Harbin that the flow of troops seemed to be largely in the direction
of Manchuria. We learned that men from thirty-five to forty-two
years were being called on one or two days' notice and that in one