BOLSHEVIK THEORY
political reasons. America, being self-contained and
strong, would be capable, so far as material conditions
go, of achieving a successful revolution; but in America
the psychological conditions are as yet adverse. There
is no other civilized country where capitalism is so
strong and revolutionary Socialism so weak as in
America. At the present moment, therefore, though it
is by no means impossible that Communist revolutions
may occur all over the Continent, it is nearly certain
that they cannot be successful in any real sense. They
will have to begin by a war against America, and
possibly England, by a paralysis of industry, by starva-
tion, militarism and the whole attendant train of evils
with which Russia has made us familiar.
That Communism, whenever and wherever it is
adopted, will have to begin by fighting the bour-
geoisie, is highly probable. The important question is
not whether there is to be fighting, but how long and
severe it is to be. A short war, in which Communism
won a rapid and easy victory, would do little harm. It
is long, bitter and doubtful wars that must be avoided
if anything of what makes Communism desirable is to
survive.
Two practical consequences flow from this con-
clusion: first, that nothing can succeed until America
is either converted to Socialism, or at any rate willing
to remain neutral; secondly, that it is a mistake to
attempt to inaugurate Socialism in a country where the
majority are hostile, or rather, where the active oppo-
nents are as strong as the active supporters, because in
such a state of opinion a very severe civil war is likely
to result. It is necessary to have a great body of opinion
favourable to Communism, and a rather weak opposi-
tion, before a really successful Socialist state can be
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