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United States
Department of
Agriculture

Forest
Service

Forest
Resource
\ Report
\ No. 22

/ eae

F )bber
., Y An Assessment

of the Forest and
Range Land Situation
in the United States

Docu: ment ae Ecn‘res B a

40504 Batim sore Blyd
Beltsville, MB 20705-235]

eS

An Assessment of the
Forest and Range Land Situation
in the United States

Prepared by the Forest Service,

U.S. Department of Agriculture, for submission to Congress
as required by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable
Resources Planning Act as amended by the National Forest
Management Act of 1976

Forest
Resource
Report

No. 22
October 1981

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402

Foreword

This Assessment, the second comprehensive study
of the renewable resources of forest and range land
and the associated waters, has been prepared in
response to provisions of the Forest and Rangeland
Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 as
amended by the National Forest Management Act
of 1976. It shows that the Nation’s demands for
outdoor recreation, wildlife and fish, range grazing,
timber, and water have been growing rapidly. It also
shows that, in response to increases in population,
economic activity, and income, demands for these
products will continue to rise in the decades ahead.

Although projected growth in demand differs for
the various products, the increases are much above
the levels that can be supplied with present manage-
ment programs and existing physical facilities. Thus,
we are faced with a future of intensifying competi-
tion for the available supplies of renewable resource
products, and the resulting and adverse impacts on
the economy, the natural environment, and the gen-
eral quality of life.

This outlook can be changed. There are many
opportunities on the 1.7 billion acres of forest and
range land and associated waters to increase and
extend supplies of nearly all renewable resource
products. For example, these lands and waters have
the physical capacity to supply sites for most types
of outdoor recreation well in excess of expected
increases in demand and to support much larger
numbers of most species of wildlife and fish. Under
intensive management, the forest and range lands
have the capability of producing nearly three times
the volume of forage and in time more than twice
the volume of timber grown today.

With proper management, the increased levels of
output can be maintained for the benefit of future
generations. In appraising the need for action, this is
a major consideration. In the long run, with growing
pressure on the environment and nonrenewable
stocks of ores and fuels, renewable resources will
surely become increasingly important to our econ-
omy and society.

{One bo

R. Max Peterson
Chief

Acknowledgments

Many members of the Forest Service, other Fed-
eral agencies, State agencies, universities, and con-
servation and industrial organizations have contrib-
uted to this study. The names of the principal
authors and contributors to the individual chapters
are listed below.! The help of all others who com-
piled material or contributed in other ways is also
gratefully acknowledged.

The principal authors of Chapter 1, Basic Assump-
tions, were Dwight Hair and Perry R. Hagenstein
(New England Natural Resources Center).

The principal authors of Chapter 2, Forest and
Range Lands, were Thomas E. Hamilton and Daniel
D. Oswald. Other substantive contributors included
Lee J. Bardwell and Brian R. Wall—land use
trends; Dwane D. Van Hooser — forest land; Jack E.
Schmautz — rangeland, Kermit N. Larson — regional
overviews; Neal P. Kingsley — North; Paul A. Mur-
phy — South; Alan W. Green— Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains; Charles L. Bolsinger — Pacific
Coast; Howard E. Banta— minerals; Elwood L.
Shafer — urban forests; Neil Paulson and Leon S.
Dochinger — air.

The principal author of Chapter 3, Outdoor Rec-
reation and Wilderness, was H. Fred Kaiser. Other
substantive contributors included Charles C. Harris
—implications and opportunities; John Hof (Uni-
versity of Florida) demand analysis; H. Kenneth
Cordell and Robert McLellan (Clemson University),
and Michael Legg (Stephen F. Austin University) —
private lands; Mack L. Hogans—dispersed land
activities; Wilbur F. LaPage and Malcolm Bevins
(University of Vermont) — developed land activities;
David L. Lime-water activities; H. Peter Wingle —
snow activities; and Robert C. Lucas and Thomas J.
Kovalicky — wilderness.

The principal authors of Chapter 4, Wildlife and
Fish were Dennis L. Schweitzer, Charles T. Cushwa
(Fish and Wildlife Service), and Thomas W. Hoek-
stra. Other substantive contributors included William
E. Wegert (Colorado State University — consump-
tive demand projections; Thomas More — noncon-
sumptive demands; Larry A. Dunkeson (Fish and
Wildlife Service) — waterfowl; David E. Capen (Uni-
versity of Vermont)—nongame bird populations;
Alexander T. Cringan (Colorado State University)
— fur trade; National Marine Fisheries Service —

salmon; Dale A. Jones, Robert W. Phillips, C. John

Ralph, James Wiley (Fish and Wildlife Service),
Tamra Taylor, William L. Sheridan, Robert E.
Radtke, Malcolm G. Edwards, Randall C. Long,
Keith Guenther, John C. Capp, David J. Dunaway,

' Contributors are members of the Forest Service unless other-
wise noted.

ill

John Adams, Paul W. Shields, William D. Zeedyk,
David R. Patton, A. F. C. Green, Edward R.
Schneegas, Carl Frounfelker, and Gregory R. Super
— regional compilations of data on demand, supply
and species-habitat relationships, and coordinators
with State Wildlife and fish agencies; Samuel P.
Shaw (retired, FS) and Nathan A. Byrd — oppor-
tunities on private lands; Glen E. Brink — data man-
agement and analysis.

The principal authors of Chapter 5, Range, were
Jack E. Schmautz, Melvin D. Belinger, Robert W.
Harris (retired, FS). Other substantive contributors
included Robert S. Rummell— Chapter manager;
John Chambers, Thomas E. Jordan, Jr., Gary R.
Evans (Soil Conservation Service), Donald T. Pendle-
ton (Soil Conservation Service), Ronald J. Younger
(Bureau of Land Management — resource analysis;
LeRoy C. Quance (Economics Statistics and Coop-
erative Service), Pramila K. Poudel — demand analy-
sis; Richard N. Ross, Nathan A. Byrd, Lester Fluck-
iger — supply analysis; Wayne E. Burton (University
of Alaska), C. Peairs Wilson (University of Hawaii) —
special analysis; and Gale L. Wolters — research
opportunities.

The principal author of Chapter 6, Timber, was
Dwight Hair. Other substantive contributors
included Robert B. Phelps, Thomas C. Marcin, H.
Edward Dickerhoof, and William H. Reid — the
demand for timber; David R. Darr and Gary R.
Lindell—trade in timber products; David B.
McKeever and Robert N. Stone — primary timber
processing industries; Dwane D. Van Hooser, James
LaBau, and Glen E. Brink —domestic timber re-
sources; Thomas J. Mills, Ralph Alig, and Donald
R. Gedney — projected timber supplies; Darius M.
Adams (Oregon State University) and Richard W.
Haynes — timber demand-supply relationships; Wil-
liam McKillop (University of California, Berkeley)
— social, economic, and environmental effects of ris-
ing prices; Stephen C. Boyce — biological and re-
search opportunities for increasing timber supplies;
George F. Dutrow, Joseph M. Vasievich, and Merle
E. Conkin (National Forest Products Association)—
economic opportunities for increasing timber sup-
plies; Neal P. Kingsley — importance of forest owner-
ship; Edward C. Thor — environmental and multiple-
use impacts of intensified management; and Thomas

. Ellis — extending timber supplies through im-
proved utilization.

The principal author of Chapter 7, Water, was
Adrian L. Haught. Other substantive contributors
included James E. Eggleston and Michael W. Mur-
phy — demand and supply situation for water;
Junior D. Helvey, Richard Lee (West Virginia Uni-

versity), David D. Woolridge (University of Washing-
ton)— opportunities for increasing water supply
through vegetation management; James O. Evans —
research opportunities; James E. Eggleston, Noel D.
Larson, James O. Evans, Clifford R. Benoit, Rich-
ard Burns, Marvin C. Meier, Coryell Ohlander, and
Thomas M. Welsch — water quality.

The principal authors of Chapter 8, Multiple Re-
source Interactions, were Peter G. Ashton, Stuart D.
Gresswell, and Ross S. Whaley. The chapter pre-
sented in the review draft was prepared by the staff
in thethe Land Use and Landscape Planning Meth-
odology Research Work Unit located at the Pacific
Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station.

The principal authors of Chapter 9, Scientific In-
formation and Data Needs, were Benjamin Spada
and Perry R. Hagenstein (New England Natural Re-
sources Center).

Dwight Hair was the study manager and con-
tributed in various ways to the preparation of the
report. J. Lamar Beasley, Perry R. Hagenstein (New
England Natural Resources Center), Max A. David-
son, and Susan J. Branham also made significant
general contributions.

The hundreds of reviewers of the draft of this
Assessment have also contributed in substantive
ways. Their suggestions and comments have been
especially helpful in preparing this final draft, and
they are gratefully acknowledged.

The detailed comments of John Fedkiw (Office of
Budget Planning and Evaluation) and his consulta-
tions with the principal authors and managers
deserve specific recognition. These have led to signif-
icant improvements in the analyses and the presen-
tation of results.

Preface

Most decisions on the management of forest and
range lands and the associated waters have long-
term impacts on renewable resources and, in a
broader sense, on the economy, the society, and the
natural environment. As a matter of common sense,
it is desirable to base these decisions on factual and
objective analyses of the present and prospective
renewable resource situation.

The need for such analyses has long been recog-
nized by Congress and by others interested in the
administration, management, and use of the Nation’s
forest lands. Congressional interest was first ex-
pressed in the Appropriations Act of August 15,
1876, which appropriated $2,000 for the employment
of an expert to study and report upon forest condi-
tions.! Other Congressional directives followed for
forestry or timber studies on an as-needed basis. In
1927 the McSweeney-McNary Act directed the Secre-
tary of Agriculture to assess, on a continuing basis,
the forest situation in the United States.2 The assess-
ment provision of this Act was amended and broad-
ened to include rangelands} by the Renewable Re-
sources Planning Act of 1974 as amended by the
National Forest Management Act of 1976. Under
this legislation, the Secretary of Agriculture is
directed to:4

“... prepare a Renewable Resource Assess-
ment .. . the Assessment shall be prepared
not later than December 31, 1975, and shall
be updated during 1979 and each tenth
year thereafter, and shall include but not be
limited to:

(1) An analysis of present and antici-
pated uses, demand for, and supply of the
renewable resources of forest, range, and
other asseciated lands with consideration
of the international resource situation, and
an emphasis of pertinent supply and de-
mand and price relationship trends;

' Hough, Franklin B., Report upon forestry. U.S. Gov. Print.
Office, Washington; Vol. I, 650 p., 1978; vol. II, 618 p. 1880; Vol.
III, 318 p., 1882.

2Section 9 of this Act authorized and directed the Secretary of
Agriculture to cooperate with States, private owners, and other
agencies “. . . in making and keeping current a comprehensive
survey of the present and prospective requirements from timber
and other forest products in the United States, and potential pro-
ductivity of forested land therein and of such other facts as may
be necessary in the determination of ways and means to balance
the timber budget of the United States.”

3 Congressional interest in an assessment of the range situation
was first expressed in 1934. This resulted in the preparation of the
first range assessment — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service. The western range. A report to the Senate. S. Doc. No.
199, 74th Cong., 2nd Sess. 620 p. 1936.

4Section 3(a)(1) and (2), Section 3(c) and Section 5(5)(E).

(2) An inventory, based on information
developed by the Forest Service and other
Federal Agencies, of present and potential
renewable resources, and an evaluation of
opportunities for improving their yield of
tangible and intangible goods and ser-
vices... ,

(3) A discussion of important policy con-
siderations, laws, regulations, and other fac-
tors expected to influence and affect signifi-
cantly the use, ownership, and management
of forest, range, and other associated lands.”

In accordance with the provisions of the legisla-
tion, this Assessment presents an analysis of the
present situation and the outlook for outdoor recre-
ation and wilderness, wildlife and fish, forest-range
grazing, timber, and water. It includes information
on:

e Trends in use and prices of major products of
forest and range lands and inland waters, such
as timber, forage, water, outdoor recreation
and wilderness, wildlife, and fish.

e@ International trade in timber and range prod-
ucts and the timber resources of important
trading countries.

@ Long-run projections of demand for major
products.

e The extent, location, ownership, condition,
and productivity of the Nation’s 1.7 billion
acres of forest and range lands and associated
inland waters.

e The uses of the forest and range lands and
inland waters including use for designated pur-
poses such as parks, refuges, wildernesses, and
mines.

e Recent changes in the area, ownership, use, and
productivity of forest and range lands and
inland waters.

e The capacity of forest and range lands and the
associated inland waters to meet projected de-
mands for renewable resource products.

e Economic, social, and environmental implica-
tions of the relationship between longrun pro-
jections of demands and supplies.

e Opportunities for increasing and extending sup-
plies of major products beyond the levels at-
tainable with present programs, with analysis
of the related economic, social, and environ-
mental impacts.

e Potential resource interactions resulting from
changes in the management of forest and range
lands.

e The discussion of important policy considera-

tions, laws, and regulations as described under
(3) above is interwoven throughout the report.

This assessment also includes a discussion of the
additional fiber potential in the Nation’s forests;
opportunities for increased utilization and recycling
of forest, processing, and urban wood and fiber
residues; primary wood manufacturing and process-
ing facilities; the impact of the export and import of
logs upon domestic timber supplies and prices; and
the role of urban areas in meeting the demands for
renewable resource products.

A number of needs are served by the descriptive
material and data on the forest and range lands and
inland water base; the ownership, use, and produc-
tivity of these lands and waters; and on uses, prices,
and international trade in products. Such material
and data provide a factual basis for judging the
results of forest and range land policies and pro-
grams. In addition, it provides a basis for analyzing
trends in markets and prices of many products, for
appraising the need for and the economic feasibility
of expanding manufacturing, ranching, and recrea-
tional facilities, and for identifying the States and
regions where forest and range land resources can
support such expansion. It also provides the factual
foundation required for projecting future trends in
demands and supplies for renewable resource
products.

The material on future demands and the capacity
to meet these demands is a very basic part of the
Assessment. The demand projections show the vol-
ume of forest and range land and water products
that people would like to consume under the given
assumptions on future changes in population, eco-
nomic activity, income, energy costs, technology,
institutions, relative prices, and other determinants.
The supply material describes the capacity of forest
and range lands and the associated waters to meet
these demands if recent trends in investments, man-
agement, utilization, research, and facilities continue
through the projection period.

Comparisons of the demand-supply projections
thus provide a means of identifying future imbal-
ances between the volume of products that would be
consumed under the given assumptions on demand
determinants and the volume that would be avail-
able for use if recent trends in investments continue.
In addition, these projections provide a basis for
estimating prospective increases in relative prices of
products, such as timber and forage, necessary to
bring about an equilibrium between the projected
demands and supplies. They also provide a measure

5 This discussion is included as a response to the direction in
Section 3(c) and Section 5(5)(E) of the Renewable Resources

Planning Act as amended by the National Forest Management
Act.

Vi

of the unsatisfied demand for products where the
price system does not act to bring about an
equilibrium.

The projections of timber demands and supplies
and the equilibrium prices provide guidance for
many decisions on long-range commitments, such as
the construction of recreation or manufacturing
facilities or investment in management practices such
as reforestation or habitat improvement whose
effects can be realized only over an extended period.
They also provide a basis for analyzing the eco-
nomic, social, environmental, and resource implica-
tions which would result from a continuation of
recent trends in investments in management, re-
search, assistance, and construction programs. This
analysis is the key to determining whether to con-
tinue existing policies and programs or to change
them in ways perceived to be more desirable from
the standpoint of the economy and the society.

This is the second in the series of required Assess-
ments under the Renewable Resources Planning Act
as amended. The first Assessment® was submitted to
Congress in March 1976. Although that Assessment,
and the associated Forest Service Program, were
used in the Executive Branch and Congress in for-
mulating and funding Forest Service programs, it is
too early to appraise the more general effects on
renewable resource policies and programs. The im-
pacts of the earlier assessments of the forest situa-
tion, however, are clear.’ These past assessments
have played an important role in the development
and guidance of public and private forest policies
and programs. They have defined problems, aroused
public interest, and provided a factual and analytical
foundation for policies and programs that had pro-
found impacts upon the management of the Nation’s
forest resource. Uses of these kinds are evident in the
records of hearings held before Federal and State
legislative committees on forestry legislation and the
budget statements prepared by forestry agencies re-
questing funds for forest programs. Available infor-
mation suggests that the recent assessments have
been used in much the same way in the private
sector — to identify prospective supply problems and
as a factual and analytical base for the establishment
and funding of forestry programs.

In preparing this Assessment, the demand and
supply analysis required by the basic legislation has
necessarily been confined to the more tangible prod-
ucts of forest and range lands and inland waters. It

6 Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Nation’s
renewable resources —an assessment, 1975. For. Resource Rep.
21, U.S. Gov. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. 243 p. 1977.

7The most recent of these assessments are cited in the timber
chapter of this document.

is recognized, however, that these lands and waters
provide intangible goods and services that are impor-
tant to many and contribute to the quality of life for
all people.

The demand and supply analysis is also of neces-
sity concerned with individual products. However,
an effort has been made to recognize the increasing
emphasis on multiple-use management, protection of
the forest and range environment, and the multiple
resource interactions which will result from in-
creased output of products. Specific allowances were
made for the continuing transfer of forest and range
lands to other uses in estimating demand and supply
of such products as timber and forage where area
changes have substantive effects.

Vil

The analysis in this study covers the next five
decades. For the longer run, with growing popula-
tion pressure on the environment and accelerated
use of nonrenewable stocks of ores and fuels, forest
and range lands and the renewable resources prod-
ucts they provide will become increasingly important
to the economy and the society.

Thus, in appraising the needs for programs and
the urgency for action, consideration must be given
to the situation beyond the period covered in this
report. With proper management, the output of
renewable forest and range products, including in-
tangibles, can in time be greatly increased and higher
levels of output maintained for future generations.

Highlights

Most decisions on the management and use of the
Nation’s forest and range lands and associated waters
have long-term impacts on the output of forest,
range, and water products; in a broader sense of the
society, the economy, and the natural environment.
The purpose of this Assessment is to provide a factual
and analytical basis for making these decisions. Thus,
and as directed by Congress, this Assessment is pri-
marily concerned with prospective trends in demands
and supplies of forest, range, and water products; the
economic, social, and environmental implications of
these trends, the forest and range land and water
base; and the opportunities to manage and use this
resource base in ways which will enhance the quality
of life for present and future generations.

An Assessment of this kind must be based on a
series of assumptions on the basic determinants of
demand and supply, such as growth in population,
economic activity, and income; technological and
institutional changes; energy costs; capital avail-
ability; and investments in forest, range, and water
management, utilization, assistance, and research
programs.

In making assumptions about these basic deter-
minants, it is recognized the longrun course of events
may be quite different from what is assumed here.!
However, trends in these determinants are the result
of massive economic, social, and political forces
which are not easily or quickly changed. Barring
major catastrophes, such as a world war, such trends
are likely to continue over a considerable time. Thus,
it is reasonably certain that the given basic assump-
tions provide a realistic basis for preparing an
Assessment for use in developing and guiding renew-
able resource policies and programs in the 1980's.
Near the end of that decade, and as required by the
Renewable Resources Planning Act, another Assess-
ment will be prepared. At that time, the basic assump-
tions will be reevaluated and new expectations incor-
porated in the Assessment which will guide Forest
Service policies and programs in the 1990's.

' The course of events in the short run can also vary from that
assumed. However, the variation which could be reasonably
expected is not likely to have major impacts on most projections.
For example, if the rate of increase in the gross national product in
the 1977-90 years continued during the last 5 years at the average
rate of 2.8 percent instead of the assumed rate of 3.7 percent, the
demand for outdoor recreation in 1990 would only be reduced |
percent below the medium projected level. There would be bigger
reductions in the demand for most timber products, about 5 per-
cent for lumber and plywood. But the reductions would not be
large enough to significantly change the basic timber demand-
supply outlook or the projected increases in timber prices.

Vill

(1) Substantial growth is anticipated in
population, economic activity,
and income

In the five decades since the late 1920’s, the popula-
tion of the United States has increased by about 97
million people, to the 1979 level of 220 million. The
most recent projections of the Bureau of the Census
indicated that population is likely to continue to grow
fairly rapidly during the next five decades. The Cen-
sus Series II projection—the medium projection of
this report — shows population rising by another 80
million to 300 million. In line with recent trends,
however, the annual rate of growth will decline from
about | percent in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s to
0.3 percent in the decade 2020-2029.

Between 1929 and 1978, the gross national product,
measured in constant 1972 dollars, increased more
than four times to $1,386 billion. Projections pre-
pared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate a
gross national product of $2,690 billion (1972 dollars)
in 2000 — nearly twice that of 1978. By 2030, it would
amount to $5,160 billion—some 3.7 times that of
1978. The associated projection of per capita gross
national product in 2030 would rise to $17,180 —
nearly triple the 1978 average.

Disposable personal income, i.e., the income avail-
able for spending by the Nation’s population, is pro-
jected to grow from about $960 billion in 1978 to
$3,610 billion (1972 dollars) in 2030.

Per capita disposable income is projected to rise to
$12,020 in 2030, some 2.7 times the 1978 average.
This growth would mean that the Nation is faced not
only with the task of meeting the resource demands of
an additional 80 million people, but the demands of
300 million people with much greater purchasing
power than today’s population.

(2)

Consumption of forest and range land
products has been rising rapidly

In response to past increases in populations, eco-
nomic activity, and income, the consumption or use
of nearly all products of forest and range lands, and
associated inland waters, has risen rapidly. For
example, the number of camping households has
roughly quadrupled since the early 1960’s and now
totals around 15 million. Timber consumption has
increased from a level of around 11.5 billion cubic
feet to 13.7 billion cubic feet in 1977.

(3) Projections show demands for forest
and range products rising faster
than supplies

Projections based on expected increases in popula-
tion, economic activity, and income show that the
demands on forest and range lands and the associated
waters for outdoor recreation, wildlife, forage, tim-
ber, and water are likely to continue to grow rapidly
in the decades ahead. However, as indicated in figure
1, there are differences in the amount of the increase.

Despite the differences, the projected growth in de-
mand is substantial for all products. On the other
hand, and as schematically illustrated in figure 2, the
capacity to meet these demands, assuming a contin-
uation of recent trends in investments in forest and
range land and water programs and facilities, shows
slower increases. Thus, the Nation is faced with a
growing imbalance between supply and the quantity
of forest, range, and water products that people
would like to consume.

This outlook has some important and adverse eco-
nomic, social, and environmental implications. For
example, the projected imbalance between demand
and supply for timber means that the Nation is faced
with the prospect of rapid and continuing increases in
the prices of stumpage (standing timber) and timber
products, relative to the general price level and to
prices of most competing materials. This, in turn,
means that the economy must depend to an increas-
ing degree on imports of timber products and substi-
tute materials. It also means increased cost to consum-
ers of products such as houses and furniture made
wholly or in part from wood; rising environmental
costs resulting from the mining, industrial processing,
and power generation associated with the increased
use of substitute materials, and an acceleration in the
rate of use of nonrenewable resources.

The outlook for forage and water is similar in
many respects — higher costs to consumers with the
associated impacts on the economy, the environment,
and the society.

For users of wildlife, fish, and outdoor recreation
resources, it will mean intensifying competition for
the available resources. This may well lead to shrink-
ing populations of wildlife and fish and a more re-
stricted distribution; fewer and less satisfying outdoor
recreation opportunities for such activities as camp-
ing, hunting, birdwatching, and wilderness camping;
and overall, a gradual deterioration in the quality of
life which the Nation has come to appreciate and
expect.

ix

Projected Demand Increases for
Selected Products

Demand Index (Medium Level)
1975-77 Base Years = 100

100 250 300

150 200

350
Product

Downhill |
Skiing

Timber

Dispersed |
Camping

Freshwater
Fishing

Waterfowl
Hunting

- Water
Consumption

Demand in 2030

Hiking

Range
Grazing

a

Schematic Illustration of Projected Demands and Supplies for Renewable

Resources Products

Units

Time

supply

(4) The Nation has a huge forest
and range iand and water base

The widespread and the adverse effects associated
with this outlook are not inevitable. There is a huge
forest and range land and water base which can be
used to meet demands for nearly all products. In
1977, 1.7 billion acres, some 71 percent of the
Nation’s area, was classified as forest and range land
and water. A little over half, or some 820 million
acres, was classified as rangeland (fig. 3). This land
includes natural grasslands, savannas, shrublands,
most deserts, tundra, coastal marshes, and wet mea-
dows. Another 737 million acres was classified as
forest land, i.e., land that is at least 10 percent
stocked with forest trees, or formerly had such cover,
and not currently developed for other uses. Of this
area, about 482 million acres is commercial timber-
land, i.e., land capable of producing in excess of 20
cubic feet of industrial wood per acre per year in
natural stands and not withdrawn for other uses. The
remaining area — some 107 million acres — was clas-
sified as water and consisted of lakes, reservoirs,
ponds, streams, and estuaries.

Nearly three-tenths of the rangeland, some 231 mil-
lion acres, is in Alaska. Most of the remainder is in

the States stretching westward from the Great Plains
to the Pacific Coast. Relatively little is found in the
island territories and possessions.

Forest and commercial timberlands are more
widely distributed and, with the exception of the
Great Plains and some of the Southwest, compose a
significant part of the area of each State. However,
nearly three-quarters of the commercial timberland
area is in the humid eastern half of the country where
it is about equally divided between the North and
South. The one-quarter of the commercial timber-
land in the West is located in the Rocky Mountain
States of Montana, Idaho, and Colorado. The other
forest land — 254 million acres —is concentrated in
Alaska and the Rocky Mountain States.

The water area in the United States, including
estuaries associated with the contiguous States, is 107
million acres, about 5 percent of the Nation’s total
area. Nearly half of the water area, some 50.9 million
acres, is in lakes and ponds at least 40 acres in size or
streams 1/8 of a mile or more in width. Slightly more
than half of this, 27.3 million acres, is in the humid
eastern half of the country. Another 12.8 million
acres, about a quarter of the total large water area, is
in Alaska. Most of the remainder, some 10.8 million
acres, is in the West. A substantial part of this area is
manmade reservoirs and impoundments constructed

to store water for irrigation, electric power genera-
tion, and flood control.

The area in small streams less than 1/8 mile in
width and lakes and ponds between 2 and 40 acres in
size amounts to 8.1 million acres, or about 8 percent
of the total water area. The geographic distribution of
these small water areas is similar to that for the large
water areas, and generally for the same reasons,
primarily rainfall and land form. A significant part of
these small water areas in nearly all States is man-
made, largely the product of Federal and State pro-
grams concerned with watershed protection and
flood prevention.

The remaining water area, 47.6 million acres,
includes the Great Lakes; bays such as the Chesa-
peake, Delaware, and San Francisco; sound such as
Long Island and Puget; harbors such as New York;
Straits of Juan de Fuca and Georgia and other coastal
waters along the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific Coasts
except those in Alaska and Hawaii. As a result of the
inclusion of the Great Lakes, three-quarters of this
other water area is in the North Central region. Most
of the rest is in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast States and
in Washington.

Land and Water Areas
of the United States

Xi

(5) The bulk of the forest and range land
is privately owned

The great bulk of the Nation’s forest and range
land is in private ownerships. In 1977, the area in
these ownerships, plus relatively small areas in State,
county and municipal ownerships, amounted to 832
million acres — about 53 percent of the total forest
and range land area.

Some 381 million acres or 46 percent of the range-
land area in 1977 was in non-Federal ownership,
nearly all private (fig. 4). These lands are concen-
trated in the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains
States and in Oregon and California. There are large
acreages of rangelands in Federal ownership in such
Rocky Mountain States as Nevada, Utah, Wyoming,
and Colorado. In addition, in Alaska nearly all of the
rangeland — some 231 million acres — was in Federal
ownership.

Approximately 451 million acres, or 61 percent of
the Nation’s forest land, was in non-Federal owner-
ships in 1977 (fig. 5). Much of this area is in produc-
tive sites and close to markets for timber products.
These ownerships, consequently, have long been of
major importance as a source of timber supplies for
the wood-using industries. Forty-five percent of these
forests are in the South, with most of the remainder
in the North.

The 286 million acres of forest land in public
ownership, largely Federal, is concentrated in the
Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast sections. Most
lands are of relatively low site quality and located at
higher elevations. Because a substantial part of these
forests has never been harvested, they contain a large
part of the Nation’s timber inventory — somewhat
more than half of the softwood sawtimber.

(6) Production on forest and range lands
is below potential

The output of nearly all renewable resource prod-
ucts from forest and range lands varies widely as a
result of differences in climate, soils, elevation, and
latitude. In general, however, it is much below what
can be attained. In 1976, for example, range grazing
in the contiguous United States amounted to 217 mil-
lion animal unit months, which is only a little over a
third of the biological potential.

The situation on commercial timberland is similar
to that on rangeland. Average net annual timber
growth per acre in 1976 was 49 cubic feet. This is
three-fifths of what can be attained in fully stocked
natural stands and far below what can be achieved
with intensive management practices such as spacing

Ownership of Rangeland

Forest Service

Other Federal

Bureau of
Land Management
42%

control and the use of genetically improved stock and
fertilizers. The potential for increasing timber growth
exists in all regions and on all ownerships. The largest
potential, however, is on the farmer and miscel-
laneous private ownerships which collectively contain
58 percent of the Nation’s commercial timberlands.
Most of these lands are advantageously located with
respect to markets and are largely composed of the
more fertile sites used for timber production.

In addition to increasing timber growth, there is a
large potential for extending timber supplies through
improvements in utilization. Logging and primary
manufacturing plant residues in 1976 totaled about 2
billion cubic feet. About 67 billion cubic feet of wood
was represented in rough and rotten and salvable
trees, and dead trees. Large additional volumes were
in tops, limbs, and stumps and urban wood wastes.
Although part of the available residue is in remote
locations or occurs in such small volumes as to be
unusable, much of the material is potentially suitable
for pulp or fuel.

Increased efficiency in processing, manufacturing,
and construction can also significantly extend the
available wood supplies.

Xll

Non-Federal
46%

There is no quantitative way of comparing present
production of outdoor recreation with the potential.
However, the 1.7 billion acres of forest and range
lands and the associated waters have the physical
capacity to supply sites for picnicking, camping, hik-
ing, skiing, birdwatching, canoeing, swimming, and
most other types of outdoor recreation far in excess
of foreseeable increases in demand.

Forest and range lands and waters also have the
potential to support a greater diversity of wildlife
species and increased numbers of most wildlife and
fish species. Included are species of high recreational
and commercial importance and some that are classi-
fied as endangered or threatened by the Federal and
State governments. Commercial stocks of fish and
wildlife can support more jobs and provide protein
for human consumption through improvements in
habitats, appropriate harvest regulations, and other
activities.

Research has shown that water yields from forest
and range lands can be augmented by intensive man-
agement. Watershed management can significantly
improve water quality and reduce soil erosion includ-
ing the associated sedimentation of streams.

Ownership of Forest Land

Other Federal

Bureau of Land
Management
16%

Forest Service
19%

(7) Opportunities exist to greatly increase
production of renewable resource
products of forest and range lands —
enough to meet projected demands
for nearly all products

In summation, the Nation’s 1.7 billion acres of
forest and range land and waters have the physical
potential to produce much larger quantities of renew-
able resource products —enough to meet the pro-
jected demands for nearly all products. The potential
for increased output and use exists in all regions of
the country, on all ownerships and for all products.

Achieving this potential will require more intensive
management of much of the land and water base, the
integration of all renewable resources in management
plans, construction of new facilities, improvements in
the efficiency of utilization, and the preservation of
some renewable resources. More specifically, and by
element, it will involve:

Outdoor Recreation

e Providing adequate maintenance of existing

facilities and improved pollution abatement.

xiii

Non-Federal
61%

Constructing additional facilities such as trails,
campgrounds, picnic areas, and boat ramps.
Improving access to forest and range land suit-
able for outdoor recreation, especially near
urban areas.

Providing improved opportunities to inform
and educate people about outdoor recreation
opportunities.

Coordinating and integrating outdoor recrea-
tion, including scenic values, with other uses in
resource and land planning.

Coordinating the planning and implementation
improve cover, stock desirable species, and
more fully integrate wildlife and fish into the
management of the forest, rangeland, and water
base.

Defining, protecting, and augmenting habitats
of endangered and threatened species and pro-
tecting critical habitat of other species threat-
ened by changes in the management or use of
the land and water base. Transplanting or artifi-
cially rearing individuals in some circumstances.
Expanding waterfowl wetlands nesting habitats
through fee purchase of key tracts and wetlands

easements in the United States and Canada,
and preserving and enhancing migration and
wintering habitats.

Fully integrating the planning, development,
and use of fish with other water resources.
Avoiding damage to fish by terrestrial resource
use. Ensuring free passage of anadromous
species.

Providing access by constructing trails, boat
landings, and other facilities where the existing
wildlife and fish resources are underutilized,
and spreading use through time and to devel-
oped areas where the resources can support
additional use.

Limiting the harvesting of wildlife and fish to
long-run sustainable levels.

Improving the coordination of wildlife-and
fish-centered activities of all levels of govern-
ment and of the private sector.

Range Grazing

Shifting grazing from ecosystems with low re-
sponse to those with higher efficiency of forage
production.

Intensifying management on all ranges in all
ownerships to improve range conditions, pro-
mote production of palatable and nutritious
forage, obtain uniform forage utilization, and
meet needs of other uses besides grazing.
Improving the amount and quality of forage
produced by seeding, seeding improved forage
species on selected sites, controlling less produc-
tive or less palatable plants on selected areas,
controlling poisonous and noxious plants, and
employing land treatments to increase produc-
tion on selected area.

Constructing needed livestock control and han-
dling facilities.

Reducing loss of range forage by controlling
wildfire and range insects and diseases.
Reducing livestock loss to diseases, parasites,
and predators.

Timber

Increasing the net annual growth and im-
proving tree quality by such measures as con-
trolling species composition, stand density, and
age classes; prompt restocking of harvested
stands; reforestation of nonstocked areas; use
of genetically improved planting stock; control
of harvesting methods; and maintaining site
quality.

Extending wood supplies through increased use
of wood residues; more efficient harvesting,
manufacturing, and construction practices; in-
creased use of preservative-treated products and

XiV

improved maintenance of existing structures.
Reducing timber losses through integrated
management techniques which prevent or mini-
mize losses caused by suppression, insects, dis-
eases, and other destructive agents.

Water

Intensifying watershed protection and manage-
ment of forest and range lands to enhance the
natural recharge of groundwater and improve
the timing of flows by storage or vegetation
modification, improve water quality, prevent
erosion of productive land, and reduce the sedi-
mentation of streams.

Increasing the efficiency of irrigation systems

by reducing losses from transmission systems
and phreatophytes and improving application
methods.

Improving the efficiency of central supply
systems by elimination of leaks in transmission
systems, use of water meters with charges
according to use, and implementation of water-
saving technology such as more efficient plumb-
ing fixtures and appliances.

Pricing to encourage more efficient use of
water.

General Opportunities

Various studies have shown that most private
owners, who collectively control most of the
Nation’s forest and range lands, have diverse
objectives, widely different characteristics and
attitudes, a limited knowledge of existing man-
agement opportunities, and varying willingness
and capacity to make investments which will
increase and extend supplies of forest and
range products.

Substantial increases in the supplies of most
forest and range products from these owner-
ships can only be achieved by such measures as
cost-sharing programs to help finance man-
agement practices, and technical assistance and
educational programs to show landowners
how to develop and manage forest and range
resources.

Much can be done to increase and extend
supplies of forest and range products by better
use of existing technology and by further re-
search to develop new technology. Investments
in management practices and facilities could be
made more efficient by expanding research.
More information is needed about physical
responses in terms of changes in wildlife popu-
lations and in forage and timber growth to var-
ious kinds of management practices. More
data are also needed on the cost of manage-

ment practices, the prices and uses of forest
and range products, and the physical aspects
of the forest and range resource. Need for
research is becoming increasingly urgent on
ways of using forest and range land, and
water, which will minimize impacts on the
environment.

Inevitably in expanding programs to increase
supplies of forest, range and water products,
the point will be reached where increasing the
output of one product will constrain or reduce
the output of another. Research is perhaps the
best hope of developing ways of integrating
and balancing multiple uses of renewable re-
sources and reducing the conflicts which are
likely to result from rapidly expanding
demands.

Finally, there is the need to further explore the
economic, social, and environmental implica-
tions of a future in which the demands for
nearly all forest and range land products are
increasing more rapidly than supplies. This is a
basic need — it is the societal basis for chang-
ing policies and programs. The results of this
research are likely to have profound impacts
on the future management and use of the
Nation’s forest, range, and water resources.

XV

(8) Moving forward to meet projected
demands for forest and range products
requires substantial investments,
but these investments promise
to be profitable

Increasing and extending supplies of renewable
resource products is technically feasible and can be
done while maintaining the forest and range envi-
ronment. However, substantive progress in meeting
prospective increases in the demand for forest, range,
and water products will require large public and pri-
vate investments in a variety of management, re-
search, and assistance programs. Large expenditures
will also be required to provide the necessary physi-
cal facilities and the plant and equipment needed to
harvest, process, and use the additional supplies of
products.

It has not been feasible in this Assessment to eval-
uate in aggregative ways the costs and benefits asso-
ciated with moving forward to meet demands for
renewable resource products. However, the partial
analyses that have been made indicate that when the
economic, social, and environmental benefits are
considered, the investments are likely to be profit-
able from the standpoint of the society and the
economy.

Contents

PRighlights 6202066005045 cidacs decease ese ca

Chapter 1.— Basic Assumptions..............
Populationicsssa<cw vss ear eads wee eoe es
Gross, National Product: .isc;40%.05s8s ude.
Disposable Personal Income .............
Institutional and Technological Change....
EMnerey COStS ics acij0ic.cic era io ais. arscace Sheree eos as
Capital Availability ........0sc00cce8e08
Other ASSUMPLIONS 66:6 60 s-4:c-n iets soni wees

Chapter 2.— Forest and Range Lands.........
OVERVIEW Cites 5 crags Ae oo Owe bea SY Mies
Vegetative COVER 24cenccecGe tea at Seeiaes
Trends in Area. 02tascastidses dues eee
OWNERSHIP. oid cchadctete ds See eae
PrOGuctivity: o.02isctintiddendw te. ceommsenne

Use of Forest and Range Lands ..........
Water Areds G0 io cuse potas ances eeas
Whe NOt sc ain a5 cucia's Bai hard ctiehe eile wthetts

Ranpelangs an t4hat ons sv eee te oemaes
Water Areas: c.iiie scrote oheees ctodis
THES OUthas bscg seeders cites Se nee ob hess

Raneelands «2x s054dseceae ome Soe bee bore
Water Areas <i34ee. te cew trues casa ee
The Rocky Mountains and Great Plains.....
POrest Wand sss ecince nae seg oes eo aees
Ream gelandts o.c5.c.0% ote cete ue aes wi aeaes nent
WALI ALEAS it's 42k HG biti Gerais wea Ramee

Forest. Wand: csccase esate tes od sid acd aavcdicvesers
IRAN GEIANGS 4 4.4 cds an ttaisha gig He eet geen
Water Area's: te sisca tne Sime reiacs arta Sree eae eiens

Wetlands: .7s.9:5 curacdacsiet aarea beware
PMI os star crs Atos arateaaect eaten ganar Ae cust ete et

Chapter 3.— Outdoor Recreation
and Wilderness.................
Outdoor RECreation 6 iii ss bnasyciuee oe dbees
Trends in Participation
in Outdoor Recreation: :.2..2e6.4 ihe. .54

Outdoor Recreation Supply..............
Supply and Demand Comparisons........
Implications of Supply
and Demand Comparisons.............
Opportunities for Increasing the Supply
of Outdoor Recreation: . 2203 se..<bee0:
WiIGeINESS <<). S144 hee eee cece ret eet eae

Page
The National Wilderness
Preservation System: esc sisho.ck aie Seite less 100
Opportunities for Meeting Future
Demands for Wilderness............... 105
Chapter 4.— Wildlife and Fish............... 109
A Brief Overview of the Resource........... 109
Demands for Wildlife and Fish............. 110
Demands for Market Products ........... 112
Demands for Social Experiences.......... 114
Demands Related to
Ecological Perceptions °2). 23. i Gee oe 116
Supplies of Wildlife and Fish
and Comparisons with Demands.......... 119
Supply of Rishi <.. 0.503 otihhek. cess pea es 119
Supply of Furbearers. oii. :0.0 Ses 121
Supply of Other Small Mammals
and Upland Game Birds............... 122
Supply of Large Mammals and Turkeys ...123
Supply ‘of: Waterfowl .!.)s.ectie ds Boe. 124
Supply of Nongame Wildlife ............. 127
Supplies Related to
Ecological Perceptions. 14 i22s 1s sete 128
Implications of Not Meeting Demands
on Wildlife and Fish Resources........... 131
Problems in Improving the Status
of Wildlife-and: Fishes is e032 sk Sone eG 133
Modifications of Terrestrial Ecosystems ..... 134
Loss. of WetlandS:.::. atisse tain cee oreoeees 136
Modifications of Aquatic Ecosystems........ 137
Pollution and Sedimentation ............... 138
Other Problems in Management............ 139
Problems Perceived. by Statesi<i << 630%234 139
Problems Perceived by Recreationists ....... 140
Opportunities to Maintain and Enhance
Wildlife and Fish Resources.............. 140
Managing Terrestrial Habitats
and Populations. 6:04.08 aces tees 140
Managing Fish Habitats and
Populations s:. sic 2.ss. 26s 00 ees 145
Managing Wildlife and Fish Use.......... 148
Opportunities for Cooperative Activities
of Private Lands. «0.03 .aimcwuemeseses 148
Opportunities for Research {..0..4.02 70 150
Chapter 5.— Range.’ ios) 0 0c. bo ie Seis eat 155
The Nation's Range"Base'.: 225%, unset 155
DisttibUtiony 32.05 oe es 5 as coasters 155
Ownership i235. .0% ete eae ee een 156
Condition of the Rangelands............. 157
Grazing Usé"of Ranges. i. s.-2s-2 stem apenas 161
Non-grazing USES 's o.50 oe oes c ot arco acrenniene 167
Management ofthe Range =. 2.2). s.0.05 1.56 169

Factors Affecting Demand
for Range Grazing os ic oec3 ovo ees 171

Demand: forsMeatyee nero re ss sees esse.
Relative Price of Feed Elements...........
World:Agriculturali Trades). 2. i... 8.
Livestock-Grazed Roughage
Relationships) pisvaeaeat ctraice isis cn ees te
The Projected Demand for Range Grazing ...
Projected Demand for Meat..............
Projected Demand for Livestock Feeds ....
Projected Regional Demands
for AlliGrazing hes. Oise ive ts Gee kel ss
Local Demand and Federal Lands.........
Potential Supplies of Grazing...............
Nonrange’Sources: “sos ete wee.
Range Sources! scons gone ee ss te ciate
Projected Demand and Supply
Relationships ate: oles cei ce tlielshelo eh are
Demand and Supply Comparisons ........
Optimization*of Grazing 2.153% S2 eo es
Impact of Increased Energy Prices.........
Environmental Constraints...............
Rederalulands iii critters axle eetee
Opportunities for Increasing
Range: Grazing ie cicicce <iosleiessie aioccisietem «cate
Management Application Opportunities. ...
MechnicalvAssistance!:ccctscso ssc ccsens 5
Financing Range Management
and Range Development...............
Research and Technology Transfer ..........
ResearchiNeed sie cictmvaters ols ciate ols eeeierovtie os

Chapter 6.— Timber ........................
ihe Demandifor Timbere. 2) oes. e ss coke oe.
Trends in the Major Timber
ProducteMarketsi oi 3 case neice «oe cists.
iirendsiniWniciise mines sere oes
Projected Demand for Lumber
andsPancliPnoducts vance cree cies ss
Projected Demand for Pulpwood .........
Projected Demand for Other
Industrial Timber Products.............
FUE] WOOGE pyar ene teag ste seksi rere ccitutca eae
Projected Demand for Timber ............
jFrade}in Himber Products.22%..0..2.0-..+
Trends in Timber Product Exports ........
Trends in Timber Product Imports ........
Trends in World Timber Demands ........
World Forest Land
and) Timber Resources. ).11.-602- 5% ++
Prospective Trends in U.S. Timber
FROGUCtOMTAd eh ccicee rein oie tics 0i5 ess dueys
Demand for Timber from
Domesticuhorests mapper iciere siete os eels
Primary Timber Processing Industries .......
umber’ Manufacturing. 2:....%......-..

173 Plywood and Veneer Manufacturing....... 224
174 Woodpulp Manufacturing................ 226
174 Other Primary Timber Manufacturing ..... 227)
Domestic Timber Resources).!. 3). 6 0 «ss 227
175 Commercial Timberland= = 2). 0.3... ... 227),
175 dhimber‘Inventony 2. oe cas scceae oe tees 3s 229
176 (himben’Montalitym eit cae wiccrntet ceetor 231
177 Net Annual Timber Growth .............. 231
TiumberiRemovals ie Gece sce a cece ces 235
180 Timber Growth-Removal Balances ........ 236
181 Projected Base Level Changes
182 in@bimbersRESOULCES: esse aes 236
182 Projected Base Level Timber Supplies ..... 237,
184 Projected Base Level Net Annual Timber
Growth\and: Mortality 7.0. oe so. 245
186 Projected Base Level Timber Inventories . . .246
186 fhe Qualified Outlook swiss. Bese 247
186 Projected Timber Demand-Supply
187 Relationships vcieia yeh sisicoe seer scutier tere 247
188 The Demand-Supply-Price Outlook
188 for Softwoodsy.is cisco Nee ee, 247
The Demand-Supply-Price Outlook
189 for Hardwoods 205i. aioks cies eater tee 251
189 ihe 'General-Price!Outlook.... 2s see ae 251
191 Social, Economic, and Environmental
Effects of Rising Timber Prices ........... 254
191 Biological and Research Opportunities
192 for Increasing Timber Supplies
192 and Reducing ossesici. <1, sisters recto reeecrs 256
192 Increasing Timber Supplies............... 256
197 Reducing cle oSses isin jassicras'o;c1oheccts concretions erate 259
197 Economic Opportunities for Increasing
limber Supplies. ois seer ote ores ene 259
197 Prospective Impacts of Implementing
201 the Economic Opportunities
for Management Intensification......... 263
202 The Importance of Forest Ownership ........ 264
203 Environmental and Multiple Use Impacts
of Intensified Management............. 265
207 Extending Timber Supplies Through
208 Improved Utilization and Research...... 266
210 Possibilities for Improvement............. 268
F11 Reduction of Demand
211 formMimberiProductsy 12 never sya ress ae 269
216 The General Role of Research .............. 269
216 Chapter 7: Water sy. eis ieee oie ioyctletatedanelar sie 298
MWhe!Demand: for Watery. 255-5 sca ceyetes elo 213
218 Water Withdrawals by Major Use......... 274
Water Withdrawals by Region and Use ....276
220 Consumptive Use of Water. 2. 5. ..02)2.0) 2 « 276
Consumption by Region and Use ......... 284
220 INSCreamiUWSesta wie sie stare searonesueraavareiatolsays 286
221 he Sup plysOrgWaten weer. tsicc sie elo sisnesehe ovone ole 287
224 Probie mvATe aS: civcievsccsroccusrsteletcvecensiensl evens 7s 290

XVil

Water Quantity. 0.0% sccac agatnieu dened
Adequacy -of Instream. FIOW wots: 5.255005

Flooding
Water Quality
Point Source Pollution— Problem Areas...
Nonpoint Source Pollution —

Cee Ce Ta ee SC Mt Sat YT EO Ya a POOR Yar St YT YC St SCOT Pa

ed

PLODIEM: ATCAS~ 05.04.01 5. ys die nereishotensieysi S%
Opportunities for Mitigating

Water Problems ¢ is .56 outsale oc ettewmmaye sd
Extending or Increasing Water Supplies ...
Flood Damage Management .............
Pollution Control — Point Source.........
Pollution Control— Nonpoint Source .....
Technical and Financial Assistance........
INCSCAPON) 209.5 ¢ anc. 5 «sash. aie's cals Sia eo atecne

Chapter 8. — Multiple Resource Interactions ..
Complexity of Estimating Renewable
Resource Supplies
Quantifying Multiple Resource Interactions...
Implications of Meeting Projected
Regional Timber and Range
Grazing Demands
CONCHISIONS Miiicca Dae ose Caiateane ceme csheues

Ce

i

Chapter 9. — Scientific Information

and Data Needs

Progress Since 1975
Inventories of Forest

and Range Resources

Physical Responses to Change

in. Managements tina ithe sine aot

Surveys of Product Use

Improving Techniques

for Data Collection

Continuing Need soca i.ccd stages deceseiakt Beato Ae
Inventories of Forest

and Range Resources

Physical Responses of Resources

to Management Practices

Surveys of Use of Forest and Range

Land Products

Techniques of Collecting Data

for Management Purposes

Other Data Needs

GlOSSALY so sis bis Saha d owe a'y om Rel Rees

List of Tables

Index

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2

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Poet ee ett Pe Ee ek et Yat et et Ca Yat at Pe Yat

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Cd

oe

XVill

:

a)
1}

i

Chapter 1. — Basic Assumptions

This chapter presents the general basic assump-
tions used in making demand and supply projections
for outdoor recreation and wilderness, wildlife and
fish, forest-range grazing, timber, and water which
are presented in following chapters. In partial recog-
nition of the uncertainty about future changes, three
alternative assumptions are presented for popula-
tion, economic activity, and income. The alternatives
cover the range over which growth in these major
determinants, and the associated projections of de-
mand for renewable resource products, could rea-
sonably be expected to vary. They also illustrate the
sensitivity of the demand projections to changes in
these basic determinants.

In making the general assumptions used here, it is
recognized that completely accurate predictions
about longrun population and economic growth, or
any of the other determinants of demand for or
supply of renewable resource products, are beyond
attainment. The intent is to make assumptions,
based on historical trends, current knowledge about
developments which affect these trends, and present
expectations about future changes which can be gen-
erally accepted as reasonable at this time.

Past trends in the major determinants used here
result from massive social, political, technological,
and institutional forces that are not easily or quickly
changed. Barring major catastrophes, such as a
world war or depression, recent trends are likely to
persist over a considerable time. Thus, basic assump-
tions, derived as described, provide a realistic basis
for preparing an assessment for the development and
guidance of renewable resource policies and pro-
grams in 1980’s. Near the end of that decade, and as
required by the Renewable Resources Planning Act,
the basic assumptions will be reevaluated; new ex-
pectations will be incorporated in the assessment
which must be submitted to Congress in 1990.

1U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Popu-
lation estimates and projections. “Projections of the population of
the United States: 1977 to 2050.” Cur. Pop. Rep. Ser. P-25, No.
704, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 87 p.
1977.

2 Fertility rates indicate the number of births per 1,000 women
during their childbearing years. For a more detailed technical
definition, see U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Wel-
fare, Public Health Service. Natality statistics analysis United
States, 1965-67. National Center for Health Statistics, Ser. 21,
No. 19, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 39 p.
1970.

3U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Popu-
lation characteristics. “Fertility of American women: June 1976.”
Cur. Pop. Rep. Ser. P-20, No. 308, U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 75 p. 1977.

4U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analy-
sis. Population, personal income, and earnings by State projec-
tions to 2030. 25 p. 1977.

Population

Changes in population have an important effect
on the demand for outdoor recreation, wildlife and
fish, timber, forage, water, and the other forest,
range, and inland water products included in this
study. They also influence the size of the labor force,
a major determinant of the level of economic activity
and related materials use.

In the five decades between the late 1920’s and the
late 1970’s, the population of the United States in-
creased by about 98 million people, rising at an
average annual rate of 1.2 percent (table 1.1, fig.
1.1). The most recent projections of the Bureau of
the Census! indicate that population is likely to con-
tinue to grow fairly rapidly through the projection
period. The Census Series II projection — the
medium projection of this study — shows population
rising by another 81 milion by 2030. In line with
recent trends, however, the annual rate of growth
declines from about | percent in the late 1960’s and
early 1970’s to 0.3 percent in the decade 2020-2029.

The alternative projections (Series I and III) pre-
pared by the Bureau of Census show substantial
increases in population. However, under the low
projections (Series III) nearly all of this occurs prior
to 2010-19 decade and begins to decline in the first
half of the following decade.

The decline in the rate of population growth re-
flects Bureau of the Census assumptions about fertil-
ity rates.2 Fertility rates fluctuated widely in recent
decades, but since the late 1950’s have fallen sharply.
The medium projection is based on an assumed fer-
tility rate of 2.1—a level close to current birth
expectations of young American wives. The current
fertility rate is below this figure and approximates a
level which would end population growth in the first
part of the twenty-first century.

Legal immigration accounts for a significant part
of population growth, and the estimates shown in
table 1.1 includes a net addition of 400,000 immi-
grants each year. Legal immigration has declined
recently and some further reduction could result
from growing national concern about unemployment
and population pressure on resources and the envi-
ronment. No allowance has been made for illegal
immigration.

The geographic distribution of the population has
a strong influence on State and regional demands
for renewable resources, particularly those that must
be produced and consumed at the same place. State
projections prepared by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis,’ are used as the basis for regional projec-
tions in this work. They show significant differences

Table 1.1 — Population, gross national product, and disposable personal income in the United States,
selected years 1920-78, with projections to 2030

Gross national Per capita gross Disposable personal
Population product! national product income’

Per capita disposable
personal income

Annual Billions Annual Annual Billions Annual Annual
of 1972 rate of 1972 rate of of 1972 rate of 1972 rate of
dollars change dollars change dollars change dollars change

1929-------- 314.6 --- 2,583 --- 229.8 --- 1,886 ---
1933-------- 222.1 -8.3 1,767 -9.1 169.7 -7.3 1,350 -8.0
1940-------- 343.3 6.4 2,589 5.6 244.3 5.3 1,849 4.6
1945------ -- 560.0 10.3 3,986 9.0 338.6 6.7 2,420 5.5
1950-------- 533.5 -1.0 3,503 -2.6 361.9 1:3 2,386 - 3
1955-------- 654.8 4.2 3,947 2.4 425.9 3.3 2,577 2.6
1960-------- 736.8 2.4 4,077 aif 487.3 2.7 2,697 9
1965-------- 925.9 4.7 4,765 3.2 612.4 4.7 3,152 3.2
o------ al 1,075.3 3.0 5,248 1.9 741.6 3.9 3,619 2.8
-------- i 1,107.5 3.0 5,348 1.9 769.0 3.7 3,714 2.6
-------- 8 AAA 5.7 5,609 4.9 801.3 4.2 3,837 3.3

8 1,235.0 5.5 5,870 4.7 854.7 6.7 4,062 5.9

-------- at 1,217.8 -1.4 5,747 -2.1 842.0 -1.5 3,973 -2.2
jnan----- 8 1,202.3 -1.3 5,629 -2.1 859.7 2.1 4,025 1.3
------- ATA 1,273.0 5.9 5,915 5.1 891.8 3.7 4,144 3.0
-------- 8 1,340.5 5.3 6,180 4.5 929.5 4.2 4,285 3.4

nn aenn- == Tf 1,399.2 4.4 6,404 3.6 972.5 4,449 3.8

Low projections

Medium projections

High projections
8,640

10,640
12,850

14,630
17,060

'Preliminary.

Note: Annual rates of increase were calculated for the various periods indi-
cated, except for the 1990 projections which were derived from the 1977 trend
level ($1,290 billion) for gross national product.

Sources:

Population: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Population
estimates and projections. Curr. Pop. Reps. Ser. P-25. 1929-69 — “Estimates of
the population of the United States and components of change: 1940 to 1978.”
No. 802, 14 p. 1979. 1970-78 — “Estimates of the population of the United States

to August 1, 1979.” No. 864, 2 p. 1979. Projections — “Estimates of the population
of the United States: 1977 to 2050." No. 704, 87 p. 1977.
Gross national product: Council of Economic Advisers. 1929-78 — Economic
report of the President. 329 p. January 1980. Projections, Medium — US.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Unpublished data.
Projections, Low and High — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.
Disposable personal income: Council of Economic Advisers. 1929-78 —
Economic report of the President. 329 p. January 1980. Projections — U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

Figure 1.1

Population 1929-77, with Projections to 2030

Mil. People

1950 1970

cer Medium

Low

1990 2010 2030

in population trends among the States and regions.
In general, the most rapid growth will be in the
South and on the Pacific Coast. Rapid growth is
also likely in some areas in the Rocky Mountains.
The major population concentrations, however, will
be much as they are today in the North Central
region and in the regions along the Atlantic and
Pacific Coasts.

The age distribution of the population is another
significant factor in estimating demands for many
renewable resource products, especially for outdoor
recreation. The Bureau of the Census projections of
age classes associated with the population projec-
tions shown in table 1.1 have been used in this study.
These projections indicate a substantial increase dur-
ing most of the projection period in the number and
proportion of people in the middle age classes — the
classes that have the highest income levels and the
largest demands for goods and services.

Population is also important as.a determinant of
the labor force, which in turn is a major determinant
of the gross national product. The labor force asso-
ciated with the medium population projection is
expected to grow somewhat more rapidly than total
population during most of the projection period.

This mostly reflects increased female participation in
the labor force — which is associated with the rela-
tively low fertility rates underlying the medium pro-
jection.5 The age structure is also important, how-
ever, and changes in the distribution by age classes
are expected to result in a fairly sharp decline in the
rate of growth in the labor force after 2010.

In addition to the size of the labor force, the aver-
age number of hours worked per year has a substan-
tial impact on the gross national product and on
demand for most kinds of outdoor recreation. His-
torical trends in the hours worked per year show a
slow decline that is projected to continue through
2030. Although the decline is slow, the average
number of hours worked per year in 2030 is pro-
jected to be some 317 hours below the 1975 average,
the equivalent of about eight 40-hour weeks.

5 The alternative assumptions of fertility rates underlying the
low and high population projections result in substantial differ-
ences in the rate of growth in the labor force. The highest rates of
growth would be associated with the low population projection
because, with the associated low fertility rates, more females
would be free to join the labor force. Conversely, the lowest rate
of growth in the labor force would be with the high population
projection and the associated high fertility rates.

Gross National Product

In recent decades, changes in the consumption of
most forest and range land products have been
closely associated with changes in the Nation’s gross
national product.

Between 1929 and 1977, the gross national prod-
uct, measured in constant 1972 dollars, increased
more than four times —rising at an average annual
rate of 3.1 percent (table 1.1, fig. 1.2). Annual
changes have fluctuated widely, from as much as
+16.0 percent to -14.7 percent. The highest sustained
rate of growth in gross national product occurred in
the 1960’s, when it averaged 4.3 percent per year.

The wide fluctuations in annual rates of growth in
the gross national product have reflected factors
such as differences in the rates of change in labor
force, rates of unemployment, hours worked per
year, and productivity. These factors will presuma-
bly continue to cause fluctuations in the years ahead.
But for this Assessment, only trends in growth were
considered, and projections were based on the fol-
lowing assumed rates of increase:

Figure 1.2

(Percent)
Period Low Medium High
1977-89 SD) 357 4.2
1990-99 2:2 2 SD,
2000-09 2.0 Pais 3.0
2010-19 1.5 2.0 25
2020-29 1.6 Zl 2.6

The assumed medium rates for the decades be-
yond the 1970’s are based upon projections of the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. These in turn are
partly based upon the medium projections of popu-
lation and the associated projections of labor force
and hours worked per year. The low and high rates
are Forest Service assumptions which are chosen to
display a range over which growth rates are likely to
vary.

The medium assumed rate of growth would result
in a gross national product of $2,690 billion (1972

6U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Unpublished data. 1979.

Gross National Product 1929-77, with Projections to 2030

Billions of 1972 Dollars
10,000
8,000

6,000
4,000

2,000

1,000
800

600
400

200

1950

1970

1990 2010 2030

dollars) in 2000 — some two times that of 1977 (table
1.1). By 2030, this projection would reach $5,160
billion— some four times that of 1977. The asso-
ciated projection of per capita gross national prod-
uct in 2030 rises to $17,180 — nearly three times the
1977 average.

The detailed projections of gross national product
by industry, prepared by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis, indicate that the proportion of the gross
national product originating in manufacturing and
construction activity declines slowly over the projec-
tion period. Transportation, trade, and other ser-
vices account for a slowly growing share of the total.
These changes are consistent with long-established
trends.

Even though there is some decline in their relative
importance, the projected increases in manufactur-
ing and construction are big. This means that the
U.S. economy will continue to produce huge quanti-
ties of physical goods. In turn, large supplies of
energy, minerals, and other raw materials will be
needed to produce those goods.

The future adequacy of supplies of raw materials,
and especially energy, is a matter of widespread con-
cern. Concern is also evident about the ways the var-
ious programs designed to protect or improve the
environment will affect the kinds of goods produced,
person-hour productivity, and various other factors
which determine the rate of growth in economic
activity. Of course, no one knows how things will
work out. Up to this time, economic activity has
continued to increase much as it has in the recent
past. Thus it appears that the economic growth
assumptions adopted provide an acceptable basis for
evaluating future demands for forest and range land
products, and as a partial basis for guiding man-
agement policies and programs during the next sev-
eral years. After that, and as required by the Forest
and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act,
the outlook will be reevaluated and new expecta-
tions on economic growth incorporated in the 1990
Renewable Resource Assessment.

Disposable Personal Income

Disposable personal income, i.e., the income avail-
able for spending or saving by the Nation’s popula-
tion, has been another important determinant of the
demand for certain products, such as many types of
recreation, red meat, and various grades of paper
and board. It also influences household formation,
size of dwellings, and furniture consumption— which
influence the demand for lumber and other timber
products.

Since 1929, disposable personal income has
equaled about 70 percent of the gross national prod-
uct. This historical and rather constant relationship
was assumed to continue through the projection
period (table 1.1).

The resulting estimates (medium level) show per
capita disposable personal income rising to $12,020
by 2030 (1972 dollars), nearly three times the 1977
average. This growth means that the Nation is faced
not only with the task of meeting the resource
demands of an additional 81 million people, but also
the demands of 300 million people with much greater
purchasing power than today’s population.

Institutional and Technological Change

In the past, institutional and technological changes
have substantially influenced use of renewable re-
sources. Increasing urbanization, for example, has
led to increased demand for some types of outdoor
recreation and been an important source of the
intensifying concern about the environment. It has
also caused important shifts in the use of raw mate-
rials, including the partial displacement of timber
products by steel, concrete, and other materials suit-
able for use in large urban structures.

Technological changes have also affected the de-
mand for certain resources. For example, the devel-
opment of freeze-dried foods and camping equip-
ment has been important in the rapid growth in the
recreational use of wilderness and backcountry
areas. The development of economical water-
resistant adhesives for exterior grades of plywood
led to huge increases in plywood use, and was a
major factor in holding down the consumption of
lumber for roughly two decades. Similarly, new tech-
nology has led to large increases of hardwood lum-
ber in pallets and of panel products such as hard-
board and particleboard in a wide variety of end
uses. On the other hand, recent developments in the
pulp industry have substantially reduced the amount
of water required to produce a ton of wood pulp.
Innovations in the metals and plastics industries
have resulted in displacement of lumber and ply-
wood in such products as furniture and containers.

At any time, potential institutional and techno-
logical changes on the horizon could affect the de-
mand for renewable resources. But the nature and
effect of many of these potential changes are similar
to those that have taken place in the past and that
are accounted for in the use of historical data in
preparing the projections.

A recent development not adequately reflected in
the historical data base is the growing constraints on

5

the extractive, manufacturing, and energy industries
to satisfy environmental and health objectives. This
development is certain to have major implications
for the projection period. Although it is too early to
define the changes that will actually take place and
their overall impacts with any certainty, such con-
straints have been taken into account in projecting
economic activity and demands and supplies of re-
newable resources.

A related development, the reservation of forest
and range lands for designated uses such as wilder-
ness, parks, and wildlife refuges, has been going on
for a long time; this development is specifically
taken into account in the projections of forest and
range land areas.

Energy Costs

Changes in energy costs have substantial effects
on the demand for forest and range land products,
both through their impact on the level of economic
activity’ and through their direct impact on the use
of forest and range land products.’

7Edward Fried and Charles Schultze (In Higher oil prices and
the world economy. The Brookings Institution. Washington, D.C.
1974 p. 47, 54) estimated that the increase in world oil prices will
result in a decrease in aggregate demand in the United States of
0.4 percent in 1980 and that these higher prices will reduce the
rate of economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percent in the early 1980's.
Edward Denison (In Effects of selected changes in the institu-
tional and human environment upon output per unit of input.
Survey of Current Business. U.S. Department of Commerce.
January, 1978 p. 2144) stated that pollution abatement regula-
tions have substantially lowered the rate of increase in output per
unit of input in the United States and that the effect of these
regulations is becoming more pronounced. He estimated that
output in the nonresidential business sector in 1975 was 1.0 per-
cent smaller than it would have been without such pollution
abatement regulations.

8 The estimates by Fried and Schultze of the effect of higher oil
prices (see footnote 7) were for the U.S. economy as a whole.
There are no comparable estimates of the impacts of recent
increases in energy prices on the use of renewable natural resour-
ces. However, it is evident that there will be a tendency to increase
use of those renewable resources that require relatively little
energy in use and processing at the expense of substitute resour-
ces that require relatively large amounts of energy, and vice versa.
For example, lumber and plywood are likely to be substituted to
some extent for steel and concrete, which have heavy energy
requirements in processing. On the other hand, demand for those
kinds of outdoor recreation that require long-distance travel may
be dampened somewhat by higher travel costs that result from
higher energy prices.

9Harold Barnet and Chandler Mose (In Scarcity and growth.
The Johns Hopkins Press 1963. p. 164-201) show that the unit
cost of energy minerals declined from 1870 to 1957. Data for
recent years show a continuation of this downward trend in rela-
tive energy prices until 1969. See, for example, The New York
Times National Economic Survey, January 8, 1978.

6

The unit cost of energy minerals, which today
accounts for the bulk of United States energy pro-
duction, decreased steadily from about 1870 to the
late 1960’s.9 Since then, however, there have been
very large increases in energy prices, with the aver-
age relative price of crude oil in the United States
more than doubling, and the price of coal and natu-
ral gas also doubling. At the same time, dependence
on relatively high-cost imported crude oil and petro-
leum products has also grown rapidly.

A long historical period has obviously ended.
During that time, improvements in technology offset
the increase in costs as energy materials were used to
process lower quality and less accessible resources.
Many of the remaining petroleum reserves are con-
centrated in areas such as interior Alaska, the Arc-
tic, and the outer continental shelf where the physi-
cal environment is severe and where development,
operating, and transportation costs are high. Pro-
duction of oil from shale and tar sands, which may
begin before the end of this century, will entail very
high development costs. In recent years, programs to
protect the environment have also added to energy
costs.

In summary, it seems fairly clear that the use of
increasingly high-cost energy reserves, the removal
of remaining controls on natural gas and second-tier
oil prices, and added environmental protection costs
are likely to push energy prices still higher relative to
the general price level. At this time, there are no
authoritative and generally accepted estimates of the
size of the future increases. It does seem, however,
that substantial and persistent upward movement is
in prospect. This has been taken into account in pro-
jecting demands and supplies for those products
where the higher prices can be expected to have a
significant effect.

Capital Availability

Large amounts of capital will be required to make
the necessary investments in management, physical
facilities, and processing plants to accommodate in-
creased demands for forest and range land resources.
Far larger amounts of capital will be needed to make
possible the levels of overall economic growth that
are projected in this chapter. It is reasonable to ask
whether such vast amounts of capital will be avail-
able to develop new energy sources, meet environ-
mental protection requirements, provide for general
economic activity, and meet the requirements for
forest and range land resources. However, when cap-
ital requirements are required with past investment
rates in the United States and western European

countries, and with expected growth in gross na-
tional product, future requirements for capital do
not appear particularly imposing.!° It has, therefore,
been assumed that capital availability will not signifi-
cantly constrain long-term economic growth in gen-
eral or intensified use of forest and range lands and
the production of renewable resources products.

'0At current levels of gross national product, a | percent
increase in the rate of annual investment would yield about 20
billion dollars of additional capital. Such an increase is well within
the range of experience of the United States and western European
countries. See, for example, Edward F. Denison (/Jn Why growth
rates differ. The Brookings Institution. Washington, D.C. 1967,
p. 117-120) and Barry Bosworth. (/n Hearings on long-term
economic growth) Joint Economic Committee. U.S. Congress.
November 16, 1976, p. 109.

Other Assumptions

In addition to the general assumptions outlined
above, the projections of demands and supplies for
the products included in this document rest on a va-
riety of other specified and implied assumptions.
The most important are described in the appropriate
places in the chapters that follow. Such assumptions
include those on prices, changes in commercial tim-
berland and rangeland areas, management intensi-
ties, the continuation of past relationships between
variables, and constraints on the supplies of renew-
able resources associated with multiple-use manage-
ment.

Chapter 2. — Forest and Range Lands

This chapter contains information on the area,
characteristics, ownership, and use of the Nation’s
forest and range lands and associated waters. These
lands and waters cover some 1.7 billion acres —
nearly 70 percent of the total area in the United States
(table 2.1, fig. 2.1). They provide not only tangible
resources such as wood, water, wildlife, and forage,
but also intangibles such as scenery and opportunities
for outdoor recreation and study.

The Nation’s forest and range lands and associated
waters are diverse and complex encompassing a wide
variety of characteristics, ownerships, productive
capabilities, and uses. This chapter gives a brief
national overview of that diversity and complexity
and then describes the forest and range land and
water base of each of four major geographic sections
—North, South, Rocky Mountains and Great Plains,
and Pacific Coast (see frontispiece).

The resource base for this Assessment has been
divided into three major categories: forest land, range-
land, and water areas (table 2.1).

Forest land is land at least 10 percent stocked by
forest trees of any size, including land that formerly
had such tree cover and that will be naturally or arti-
ficially reforested. Included in these lands are transi-
tion zones, such as areas between heavily forested and
nonforested lands that are at least 10 percent stocked
with forest trees, and forest areas adjacent to urban
and built-up lands.

Rangeland is land on which the potential natural
vegetation is predominantly grasses, grass-like plants,
forbs, or shrubs; including land revegetated naturally
or artificially that is managed like native vegetation.
Rangeland includes natural grasslands, savannas,
shrublands, most deserts, tundra, alpine commu-
nities, coastal marshes, and wet meadows, that are
less than 10 percent stocked with forest trees of any
size.

The forest and range land data in this Assessment
may differ from those in other reports, due to dif-
ferences in definitions. For example, the pinyon-
juniper and chaparral plant communities of the
western United States, classed as forest ecosystems
herein, are sometimes counted as rangelands due to
their forage values. The transition zone between
forest and nonfcrest is considered forest here, but
rangeland in some studies. The urban fringe forests
are included as forest in the report, but other reports
have classified them as nonforest.

Water areas are divided into several categories.
Large inland water areas are lakes, ponds, and reser-
voirs at least 40 acres in size and streams and rivers at
least one-eighth of a mile wide. Small water areas
include lakes and ponds that are at least 2 acres but

less than 40 acres in size, and rivers and streams at
least 120 feet wide but less than one-eighth of a mile.
Other water includes the Great Lakes, and the estuar-
ies of the contiguous States, but excludes the estuar-
ies of Alaska and Hawaii.

Overview
Vegetative Cover

The vegetative cover on the 1.6 billion acres of
forest and range land in the United States varies
greatly from one part of the country to another. The
basic vegetative cover largely determines the uses that
can be made of the land and is directly related to
annual precipitation. In the areas of the Nation that
receive substantial moisture throughout the year, the
dominant vegetative cover is forests. In arid and
semiarid areas, the dominant cover is grasses and
shrubs typically associated with rangelands.

The total forest and range land base of the Nation
is almost evenly divided between the two categories,
820 million acres of rangeland and 736 million acres
of forests. In addition, there are 698 million acres of
cropland, improved pasture, developed, or barren
land (table 2.1).

Most of the Nation’s rangelands are found in the
Great Plains, the western United States, and Interior
Alaska (fig. 2.2). Rangelands occupy more than 50
percent of the total land area in each of eight States:
Alaska, Arizona, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,
Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. These States together
account for more than 45 percent of the Nation’s total
rangeland base.

The States east of the Great Plains generally sup-
port either a highly developed agricultural economy
or are heavily forested. They account for only 13 per-
cent of the Nation’s rangeland.

Forest land, unlike rangeland, is distributed widely
in both the eastern and western United States (fig.
2.3). The land east of the Great Plains that has not
been cleared for agriculture is usually heavily for-
ested. In addition, humid portions of the Pacific
Coast and high elevation areas in the West that
receive adequate precipitation are also forested. The
eastern States account for slightly more than half of
the Nation’s forest land while the Rocky Mountain
and Pacific Coast States account for most of the re-
mainder. The Great Plains States have relatively little
forest land.

Vegetative cover on the Nation’s forests and range-
lands is diverse as a result of differences in climate,
topography, and soils. The classification system for
forests and for rangelands used in this Assessment is

11

Table 2.1— Land and water areas of the United States, by class of land, water, and section,

Section, region,
and State

North:

Northeast:
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia

Total

North Central:
Illinois
Indiana
lowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Ohio
Wisconsin

Total

Total, North

South:

Southeast:
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia

Total

South Central:
Alabama
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas

Total

Total, South

Rocky Mountain and
Great Plains:
Rocky Mountain:

Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
New Mexico
Utah
Wyoming

Total, Rocky Mountain

region, and State’
(Thousand acres)

Land Water
Forest and Inland water
Total range land
forest Other =a Other
and Range- land* ola Large | Small | water’
i :
range land} Forest land3 mane area® | area®

138,491.8] 126,700.8

37,072.7 35,441.7 977.0
23,370.1 22,951.1 146.0
36,025.2 35,634.2 0
61,946.5 36,172.5 24,688.0
55,288.0 50,382.0 1,416.0
44,598.8 43,867.8 0
28,683.0 26,121.0 : 2,212.0
42,379.0 34,616.0 7.0 6,440.0

38,588.6 33,993.6 ,228. 189. 14,764.8] 4,595.0
37,711.7 36,795.7 : ‘ 11,539.7 916.0
33,654.7 30,955.7 ,043. : 10,912.4] 2,699.0
19,963.0 19,143.0 ,269. i 6,873.6 820.0
27,090.2 25,286.2 16,444.9 1,804.0

157,008.2] 146,174.2 93,242.4

885.0
2,699.0
732.0

33,388.1| 32,231.1] 21,415.1] 21,361.1 .0| 10,816.0 358.0
33,986.6| 33,090.8] 18,281.7] 18,281.5 21 14,809.1 0
25,853.0| 25,282.0] 12,160.8| 12,160.8 0] 13,121.2 0
31,705.2| 28,409.2| 15,074.7| 14,558.1 6] 13,334.5 309. 650.0
30,953.7| 29,929.7] 16,735.3] 16,715.6 7] 13,194.4 356.0
44,748.8| 43,727.8| 17,814.2| 8,513.3] 9,300.9] 25,913.6 0
27,035.9| 26,289.9| 13,560.9 12,729.0]- : 0

171,149.8| 167,282.8] 114,878.1 52,404.7 315. 53.0
386,243.3 1,417.0
555,829.5 104,127.2 19,799.0 3,613.0
72,902.3] 72,580.3] 63,662.2| 18,493.9] 45,168.3| 8,918.1 0
66,720.1| 66,283.1] 50,092.7] 22,271.0| 27,821.7| 16,190.4 0
53,476.1| 52,676.1] 45,324.7| 21,726.6] 23,598.1| 7,351.4 0
94,168.2| 92,896.2| 75,893.3] 22,559.3| 53,334.0] 17,002.9 0
70,739.8| 70,294.8] 64,571.0| 7,683.3] 56,887.7| 5,723.8 0
77,864.0| 77,669.0| 66,785.3| 18,059.8] 48,725.5| 10,883.7 0
54,343.7| 52,504.7] 45,258.4] 15,557.4] 29,701.0| 7,246.3 0
62,666.3 896. 0
552,882.5| 546,959.5 5,923.0| 5,923.0] 5,313.0 0

See footnote at end of table.

12

Table 2.1— Land and water areas of the United States, by class of land, water, and section,
region, and State’— continued
(Thousand acres)

Total
forest
and

Section, region,
and State

Great Plains:
Kansas 17,622.6
Nebraska 25,303.5

North Dakota
South Dakota

Total, Great Plains

12,717.7
25,099.7

Total, Rocky Mountain
and Great Plains

Pacific Coast:
Pacific Northwest:
Alaska
Oregon
Washington

Total

Pacific Southwest:
California
Hawaii

Total

Total, Pacific Coast

Total, United States

'Data for forest land as of January 1, 1977; data for rangeland and other land as
of 1976; data on inland water as of 1977; data on other water as of 1970.

?Land at least 10 percent stocked by forest trees of any size, or formerly having
such cover, and not currently developed for nontimber use. Included in these
lands are transition zones, such as areas between heavily forested and non-
forested lands and forest areas adjacent to urban built-up lands, which may have
timber production as a primary use.

35Land on which the natural vegetation is predominately grasses, grasslike
plants, forbs, or shrubs; and which is not currently developed for nonrange use.

‘Residual obtained by subtracting forest land arid rangeland from total land
area. This category includes cropland, improved pasture, and industrial and
urban areas.

5Lakes and ponds at least 40 acres in size; waterways % mile or more in width.

®Lakes and ponds between 2 and 40 acres in size; waterways less than % mile in
width.

Forest and
range land

Other

Total
pucta Large | Small
mend area’ area®
water

34,504.1 522.0
23,524.6 597.0
31,221.0 1,287.0

16,278.2
24,274.4
12,295.9

o}o000

1,534.0
1,565.0

1,716.0
19.0

1,489.0] 227.0
16.0 3.0

44.0

1,609.0
47,642.0

™Includes Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf Coastal waters: Chesapeake and Delaware
Bays; Long Island and Puget Sounds: New York Harbor; Straits of Juan de Fuca
and Georgia; and the Great Lakes. Excludes Alaska and Hawaii.

Sources: Forest land — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Forest
Statistics of the U.S. 1977.

Rangeland — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service estimates based
on data supplied by U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service
U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Indian
Affairs, and National Park Service; and U.S. Department of Defense.

Inland water — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service
(preliminary data)

All other land and water. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census.
Area Measurement Reports. GE-20 No. 1, 22 p. 1970.

13

Figure 2.1

Forest and Range Land Areas in the Contiguous United States

- Forest and Range

Medium - Mixed Forest, Range, and
Cropland

Dark - Cropland, Irrigated and
Urban

based on vegetation. Closely related plant communi-
ties have been aggregated into single ecosystems.
Forest ecosystems are synonymous with forest cover
types developed and defined in the Forest Survey
conducted by the Forest Service.! Rangeland ecosys-
tems are based on potential natural plant communi-
ties termed phytocoenoses.? Detailed descriptions of
each ecosystem can be found in “Vegetation and
Environmental Features of Forest and Range Eco-
systems.”3

'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Geographic
forest types used in the forest survey. For. Serv. Handbk. 4813.1,
sec. 74, March 1967.

>Kuchler, A. W. Potential natural vegetation of the contermi-
nous United States. Am. Geogr. Soc. Spec. publ. no. 36, 116 p.
with map. 1964.

Kuchler, A. W. Potential natural vegetation. Nat. Atlas of the
U.S.A., U.S. Dep. of the Interior, Geol. Survey, p. 89-92. 1970.

’Garrison, George A., Ardell J. Byjugstad, Don A. Duncan,
Mont E. Lewis, and Dixie R. Smith. Vegetation and environmental
features of forest and range ecosystems. U.S. Department of Agri-
culture, Agric. Handbk. 475, 68 p. 1977.

14

= on
OG sorte

Trends in Area

The available data indicate that the area in forest
and range land has been declining in recent decades.
The inland water area, on the other hand, has been
increasing mainly due to reservoir construction.
These trends are expected to continue. For example,
the total area of forest and range land is projected to
be about 5 percent lower by 2030, with decreases of
2 percent for forest lands (from 736 to 718 million
acres) and 7 percent for rangelands (from 820 to 764
million acres) (table 2.2).

During the 1980's, a significant portion of the pro-
jected decline in forest area is expected to result from
conversion of forest to cropland, particularly on del-
tas and bottomlands of southern rivers. However,
after 1990, reduction in forest land area will mainly
result from conversion to other land uses such as
reservoirs, urban expansion, highway and airport
construction, and surface mining. As indicated in the

Figure 2.2

Forest Land as a Percentage of Total Land Area

14

° ; go) Ss oe @
we a 48 © cS

discussion on mining later in this chapter, increased
reclamation of mined lands in the future will limit the
longrun impacts of surface mining on the total area of
forest land.

The loss of 56 million acres of rangeland will occur
largely on private lands, due to changes to cropland
and developed uses such as residential sites, high-
ways, airports, and mines. Some rangeland areas will
be converted to improved pasture, which is an intensi-
fication, rather than a change, in land use. As with
forests, required reclamation of mined lands will limit
the longrun effects of surface mining on the total area

_of rangelands.

Ownership

About 54 percent of the Nation’s present area of
forest and range land is non-Federal ownership,
which is mainly private, but also includes State and
municipal lands (table 2.3). This proportion is chang-
ing due to State and Native selections of Federal
lands in Alaska. After these selections of well over
100 million acres have been completed, the propor-

tion of forest and range lands in non-Federal owner-
ship will increase several percent.

Forest and range lands under Federal jurisdiction
in the contiguous States include 174 million acres
administered by the Bureau of Land Management
and 167 million acres of National Forest System
lands. Other Federal forest and range lands, totaling
only 45 million acres, are administered by various
agencies in the Department of the Interior and the
Department of Defense.

Of the 351 million acres of forest and range land in
Alaska, 6 percent are National Forests, 81 percent are
administered by the Bureau of Land Management,
9 percent are other Federal lands, and only 4 percent
are non-Federal lands. The bulk of the State and
Native selections of Federal lands in Alaska will come
from lands administered by the Bureau of Land
Management; however, most of the highly productive
forest lands selected will come from National Forests.

Most of the eastern forest lands are State and pri-
vately owned. Federal ownership is heavily concen-
trated in the western forest and range land. Only 9
percent of the eastern forest lands are Federal, but 72

15

Figure 2.3

Rangeland as a Percentage of Total Land Area

*Less than 0.5 percent

percent of the western forest lands and 61 percent of
the western rangelands are in Federal ownership
(table 2.3). These proportions, too, will change some-
what as the selections in Alaska are made and title is
transferred to the State and to Native groups.

Productivity

Productivity is a measure of the ability of land to
produce timber, forage, wildlife, or other biological!
outputs. There is no single measure that adequately
describes the productivity of forest and range lands
for all of the products or outputs that can be obtained
from them. Measures such as cubic feet or board feet
of timber or pounds of forage produced per acre
annually are often used as estimates of productivity.
Although measures of productivity for other uses,
such as wildlife or recreation, are not well developed,
biological productivity as measured for timber and
forage is often useful in helping to determine capacity
for other uses.

A number of factors determine productivity for
timber and forage. Chief among them are soil, cli-
mate, and topography. Thus, lands with arid cli-
mates, at high elevations or in northern latitudes,
tend to have lower productivity for timber and forage
than lands more favorably situated. However, an
unfavorable situation for the production of timber or
forage may in some cases be taken as an indicator
of high productivity for some kinds of outdoor
recreation.

The inherent productivity of forest and range lands
can in many cases be altered by investments in inten-
sive management. The productivity levels discussed in
this chapter are the maximum potentials for forest
and range ecosystems in the absence of such intensi-
fied management. Natural potentials have been used
because they are available for most areas, and because
they provide a uniform means of describing the rela-
tive productivity of the Nation’s forests and range-
lands.

Table 2.2 — Land and water areas of the United States, by class of land and water, 1970, 1977,
with projections to 2030

(Million acres)

Class Projections
1970 1977 2000 2010 2020 2030
Land:

Forest and range land:
Forest land’ 754 737 732 728 724 720 718
Rangeland? 819 820 808 796 785 776 764
Total 1,573 1,557 1,540 1,524 1,509 1,496 1,482
Other land? 686 697 711 724 737 749 761
Total 2,259 2,254 2,251 2,248 2,246 2,245 2,243
Total 2,361 2,361 2,361 2,361 2,361 2,361

‘Land at least 10 percent stocked by forest trees of any size, or formerly having
such cover, and not currently developed for nontimber use. Included in these
lands are transition zones, such as areas between heavily forested and non-
forested lands and forest areas adjacent to urban and built-up lands, which may
not have timber production as a primary use.

For this Assessment, productivity of forest land is
defined as the amount of wood per acre per year that
can be produced in fully stocked natural stands. At
the present time, the Nation’s forest lands as a whole
are capable of producing an average of 74 cubic feet
of wood per acre per year. But such averages obscure
some significant geographic differences. The two
eastern sections of the country, for example, have an
average productive potential of 65 and 77 cubic feet
per acre per year, while the forest land in the Pacific
Coast has an average annual productive potential of
97 cubic feet.

Even within a single section, there is a wide range
of productivity. On the Pacific Coast, extensive areas
in the Douglas-fir ecosystem are capable of produc-
ing over 200 cubic feet of wood per acre per year, but
extensive areas of fir-spruce and pinyon-juniper can-
not produce 20 cubic feet of wood per acre per year
(tables 2.4 and 2.5).

Rangeland productivity is measured by annual
production of herbage and browse per acre. Of the
various categories of rangelands, wet grasslands have
the highest inherent productivity, producing on the
average over 5,100 pounds (air-dry) of herbage and
browse per acre per year (table 2.6). The desert eco-
system produces practically no herbage and browse.
The desert shrub and desert grasslands ecosystems
are also low producers, averaging only 249 and 307
pounds, respectively. In general, grasslands have
higher average productivity than do the shrublands.

?Land on which the natural vegetation is predominantly grasses, grasslike
plants, forbs, or shrubs; and which is not currently developed for nonrange use.

3Other land includes cropland, improved pasture, industrial and urban land,
and all other land categories except forest land and range land.

‘Water area includes lakes and ponds over 2 acres in size, waterways, the Great
Lakes and coastal waters and estuaries excluding Alaska and Hawaii.

Forest lands generally have a high potential for
production of herbage and browse if they have little
or only partial tree cover. For example, the redwood
forest ecosystem is capable of producing an average
of 4,800 pounds of herbage and browse per acre
annually; the hemlock-sitka spruce ecosystem could
average 4,200 pounds. Average potential production
for most other forest lands is in the range of 1,000-
2,000 pounds per acre.

It is unlikely that major areas of forest land will be
cleared for use as rangeland, even though potential
productivity is high. Some forest lands, especially the
open-grown pine lands of the western United States,
now produce considerable forage for domestic live-
stock; and most forest lands produce herbage and
browse for deer and other wildlife. Forest stands can
be managed to increase the production or availability
of herbage and browse for livestock and wildlife,
while continuing the production of timber. However,
such management may lead to a reduction in timber
production.

With the exception of southeast Alaska coastal
forests, the Alaska forest land and rangeland ecosys-
tems have generally lower productivity levels than
counterpart ecosystems in the other States. The
Hawaiian forest ecosystems have high inherent pro-
ductivities for herbage and browse, well over 4,000
pounds per acre.

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22

Table 2.6 — Average annual herbage and browse production and area by productivity class of range
ecosystem in the contiguous States

Ecosystem INroa
average

Ecosystem

Productivity class'

4

Pounds Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand
per acre acres acres acres acres acres
Grassland:
Mountain grasslands 1,661 26,871 914 20,826 5,131
Mountain meadows 2,824 3,284 2,090 1,194 0
Plains grasslands 1,016 175,239 1,826 80,595 92,818
Prairie 3,318 41,186 9,692 29,509 0
Desert grasslands 307 24,744 0 0 24,744
Annual grasslands 2,064 10,153 1,987 5,992 2,174
Wet grasslands 5,139 4,411 2,461 0 632
Alpine 564 6,775 0 783 5,992
Shrublands:
Sagebrush 1,027 129,872 61,847 68,025
Desert shrub 249 81,171 2,908 78,263
Southwestern shrubsteppe 488 43,213 790 42,423
Shinnery 1,870 4,726 385 2,644
Texas savanna 2,142 28,429 21,610 1,317
Chaparral-mountain shrub? 1,929 15,477 7,253 3,613
Pinyon-juniper? 385 47,305 0 47,305
Desert 0 7,490 0 7,490
Western forests:
Douglas-fir 2,262 38,505 23,710 7,603
Ponderosa pine 1,627 33,502 4,733 23,904
Western white pine 3,823 566 147 5
Fir-spruce 1,232 113,378 71,177 42,201
Hemlock-Sitka spruce 4,189 19,777 2,535 0
Larch 2,537 2,815 1,818 0
Lodgepole pine 1,762 21,218 10,950 5,280
Redwood 4,781 786 0 0
Hardwoods 1,880 39,764 27,976 11,625
Eastern forests:
White-red-jack pine 1,346 12,496 12,496 0
Spruce-fir 784 21,224 695 20,529
Longleaf-slash pine 2,096 17,060 14,120 0
Loblolly-shortleaf pine 2,230 50,348 44,485 0
Oak-pine 2,358 35,084 28,331 813
Oak-hickory 1,153 113,762 3,420 99,955
Oak-gum-cypress 1,241 29,185 2,813 25,072
Elm-ash-cottonwood 2,619 23,315 19,536 0
Maple-beech-birch 1,476 38,751 38,751 0
Aspen-birch 1,410 20,430 20,430 0

‘Productivity classes: 1 - 5,000 pounds or more per acre per year; 2 - 3,000 to 4,999 pounds; 3 - 1,000 to 2,999 pounds; 4 - less than 1,000 pounds.

2 Considered as other forest in previous tables.

Use of Forest and Range Lands

Forest and range lands and associated water areas
are important sources of basic raw materials for the
Nation’s economy; at the same time, they play a vital
role in the social and cultural life of its people. In
addition to supplying materials such as timber, min-
erals, and forage for domestic livestock, these lands
and waters also provide wilderness, a wide range of
recreation activities, water, and wildlife and fish.
Because of their great extent and basically natural
character, they are also important in maintaining a
balance in the natural environment.

The uses of forest and range lands are many and
variable, and depend in part on the nature, character,
and location of these lands. They also depend on the
density and character of the population that uses
them. Major ones are discussed in a summary manner
in the parts of this chapter that deal with each major
geographic section and in more detail in succeeding
chapters. However, some major points are noted
here.

First, uses of forests and rangelands take place in
many different combinations depending on the char-
acter of the lands, their past treatment, their present
ownership and management, and even the time of

23

year. Practically every acre of forest and range land
contributes to more than a single use at one time or
another and, in this sense, all forest and range lands
are multiple-use lands. For a variety of reasons, cer-
tain uses are restricted or prohibited on some lands.
But even these lands typically support uses other than
the one that is designated the major use. For exam-
ple, areas designated as wilderness and used primarily
for recreation provide wildlife habitat and water, and
in some areas, grazing.

Many of the Nation’s forests and rangelands are
often termed “multiple-use” lands because no specific
use is automatically assigned dominance. Most of the
460 million acres administered by the Bureau of Land
Management and the 187 million acres of National
Forests are called multiple-use lands because no
overall use priorities have been established. Many,
perhaps most, private forest and range lands are also
used and managed for a variety of purposes.

Second, conflicts among uses are often minimal for
common combinations and intensities of use and
management. That is, the use of an area for one pur-
pose does not usually preclude its use and value for
other purposes. As the intensity of management and
use increases, however, the potential for competition
among uses also increases; careful planning is re-
quired to integrate various uses on each area. Overall,
the use of forest and range lands can be maximized
under management that encourages multiple uses of
most areas.

Third, the various uses of forest and range lands
must be considered in terms of quality, as well as
quantity. This is true for commodity uses, such as
timber and forage, and for noncommodity uses such
as recreation and wilderness. In the same sense that
small trees cannot substitute for large, high-quality
trees for some products, high-density campgrounds
are not a satisfactory substitute for remote areas, for
a primitive camping experience. Although the need
for qualitative as well as quantitative judgments is
well recognized, data that adequately reflect quality
differences in uses of forest and range lands are often
not available.

Finally, it is important to understand that the
Nation’s forest and range lands vary in their multi-
resource potentials to meet our needs for timber,
water, wildlife, forage, recreation, and other goods
and services. To relate uses to resource area poten-
tials, it is necessary to consider specific requirements
to meet specific product or service needs. For exam-
ple, water used for irrigation differs in its require-
ments from water used for drinking, swimming, or
fishing. Some bodies of water may serve all of these
purposes, others only one.

24

In view of the large size of the United States and its
diversity in climate and physical characteristics, forest
and range land resources are described for each of the
four major geographic sections used in this Assess-
ment — North, South, Rocky Mountains and Great
Plains, and Pacific Coast.

Water Areas

The water area in the United States, including
estuaries associated with the contiguous States, is 107
million acres, about 5 percent of the Nation’s total
area (table 2.1). As with forest and range land, the
characteristics of this water area vary greatly as a
result of differences in size, type of water body
(stream, pond, bay, etc.), and source.

Large lakes and streams account for nearly half of
the total water area, 50.9 million acres. This area
includes lakes and ponds at least 40 acres in size and
streams one-eighth of a mile or more in width.
Slightly more than half of the area of large lakes and
streams, 27 million acres, is in the humid eastern half
of the country. Within the East, the large water areas
tend to be geographically concentrated in the
northern-most tier of States, where glaciation has
formed numerous basins for lakes, and in the
southern-most tier of States where part of low-lying
land along the coasts and major rivers is covered with
water.

Another 12.8 million acres, about a quarter of the
total large water area, is in Alaska. Most of the
remainder, some 10 milion acres, is in the contiguous
Western States. A substantial part of this area is
manmade reservoirs and impoundments, constructed
to store water for irrigation, electric power genera-
tion, and flood control.

Small inland water areas total 8.1 million acres.
They include streams of less than one-eighth mile in
width and lakes and ponds between 2 and 40 acres in
size. The geographic distribution of these small water
areas is similar to that for the large water areas, gen-
erally for the same reasons — rainfall and landform.
Many of these small water areas are manmade, largely
the product of Federal and State programs concerned
with watershed protection and flood prevention.
Associated objectives include improving water sup-
plies and increasing water-based outdoor recreation
opportunities.

The 47.6 million acres of other water area include
the Great Lakes; bays such as the Chesapeake, Dela-
ware, and San Francisco; sounds such as Long Island
and Puget; harbors such as New York; Straits of Juan
de Fuca and Georgia; and other coastal waters along
the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific Coasts except those in

Water areas include ponds, lakes, and reservoirs greater than 2 acres in size and streams greater than 120 feet wide.

Alaska and Hawaii. The Great Lakes of the North
Central region account for three-quarters of the other
water areas. Most of the rest is located in the Atlantic
and Gulf Coast States and in Washington.

In the last few decades, as the result of the con-
struction of dams and other impoundments, both
large and small water area categories have been grow-
ing. The upward trend is expected to continue,
although at a slower rate. The water area is accord-
ingly projected to rise from 107 to 118 million acres
by 2030, an increase of 10 percent (table 2.2). Most of
this increase is likely to be in the large water area
category and result from the construction of
reservoirs.

All navigable waters — streams, lakes, reservoirs,
bays, etc. — have always been considered as publicly
owned. Public access, however, is controlled by the
owners of adjoining lands.

No single measure of the productivity of the
Nation’s waters is meaningful because of the different
requirements for different uses. Water that cannot
sustain aquatic life might be highly desirable for
domestic or industrial use. It is evident, however, that
these surface waters are of great importance to the

Nation. In addition to the domestic and industrial
uses, they provide water for irrigation, navigation,
and power generation; habitat for waterfowl; and the
necessary medium for the existence of fish and other
forms of aquatic life. Much of our outdoor recreation
is water-based. The suitability of the Nation’s water
areas for various uses depends in part on the man-
agement and use of the adjoining forest and range
lands.

The North

The North geographic section of the United States
includes 20 States from the Atlantic seaboard west to
Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri, and south to the
Ohio River, including West Virginia and Maryland.
The northern portion of this section is characterized
by moderately long, relatively severe winters. Pre-
cipitation is moderate and ranges from 25 to 45
inches. A short growing season of 100-140 frost-free
days imposes severe restrictions on agriculture. Most
of this area has low relief with some rolling hills and
low mountains in the Northeast. Much of the area
has been glaciated; glacial landforms are common.

o>)

Soils are well suited for forests. Most soils are acid
and strongly leached, and have an upper layer of
organic matter. Soils with high water tables are
common in many areas.

The mid- and southern portion of this section has
cold winters and warm summers. Precipitation is
greater in the summer months and ranges from 35-60
inches. Most of the area is rolling or nearly flat, but
the Appalachian Mountains have high relief up to
3,000 feet. Much of the area has been glaciated. Soils
are generally productive and are well suited for
deciduous forests and grassland.

Forest Land

Of the 467.8 million acres in the North, 162.4 mil-
lion acres are forested (table 2.1). This is the second
most densely forested section in the country with 39
percent of its land area in forest. Much of the forested
area in this densely populated section of the country
is in close proximity to large numbers of people.

Forests are the natural or climax vegetation on
nearly all the land in this section. Only scattered
areas, mostly in Missouri, are natural grasslands.
Thus, much of what is now open land in the North
would soon revert to forest without man’s inter-
vention. This has already happened in many places.
During the early settlement, forests were cleared for
crop and pasture land. However, some of this land is
poorly suited for these uses. As better land was devel-
oped, much of the land originally used for crops and
pastures was abandoned and reverted to forests.

The spruce-fir ecosystem covers 21.2 million acres
of the North (table 2.7). This forest is a mainstay of
the section’s woodpulp industry. Spruce studs, white-
cedar fencing and siding, maple and birch furniture
stock, veneer, and turned products are also products
of these forests. The more remote spruce-fir forests
are also popular with recreationists. The numerous
lakes and streams found in these forests are famous
for trout, salmon, and other cold water sport fishing.

The maple-beech-birch ecosystem covers 36.9 mil-
lion acres of the North section of the country. It con-
tains some of the most valuable hardwood species for
wood products in the North including sugar maple,
yellow birch, white birch, and basswood, as well as
less valuable species such as red maple and beech.
Most maple-beech-birch stands have been logged for
their most valuable trees. As a result, they often con-
tain more red maple and beech and a higher percent-
age of rough or rotten trees than would be found in
either natural or managed stands.

In addition to providing valuable timber for a wide
range of finished products, the maple-beech-birch

26

Beech-birch-maple forests have become established on large areas
previously used for crops or pasture. Typical of this forest type, this
pole-sized stand needs a commercial thinning to release crop trees.

ecosystem provides other resource values. This eco-
system is primarily responsible for a profusion of fall
color; in much of the North, the fall foliage display is
a highly valued asset to millions of tourists and resi-
dents. Because the maple-beech-birch ecosystem con-
tains a large variety of plant species existing under
variable conditions, it also has a great variety of wild-
life species.

Elm-ash-cottonwood is another major forest eco-
system in the North. In recent years, the area of this
ecosystem has substantially increased from less than
16 million acres in 1962 to 17.8 million in 1978. One
reason is that this is often the first ecosystem to estab-
lish itself on abandoned crop- and pastureland, par-
ticularly on wet fields and pastures. Another reason
has been the past high-grading of maple-beech-birch
stands, leaving the elm and ash.

Elm-ash-cottonwood is not a highly desirable eco-
system for timber production. Through most of the
North, elm, though noted for its superior bending
qualities, toughness, and strength, is seldom found in
commercial quantities or sizes because of Dutch Elm
disease. But ash, particularly white ash, is still much
in demand for such products as baseball bats, hockey
sticks, tennis rackets, and tool handles. This eco-
system also provides the bright crimson and yellow
fall foliage of the low-lying swamps and meadows in
the North.

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28

The oak-hickory ecosystem covers over 43 million
acres, more forest land than any other ecosystem in
the region. This ecosystem takes on different charac-
teristics depending on where it is found; in fact, there
are eight separate associations under the broad oak-
hickory ecosystem — post, blackjack oak, black or
bear oak; chestnut oak; white oak-red oak-hickory;
white oak; northern red oak; yellow poplar-white
oak-northern red oak; sweetgum-yellow poplar; and
mixed hardwoods.

The commercial value of the oak-hickory forest is
as variable as the ecosystem itself. Associated with
many oak-hickory communities is black walnut, the
most valuable native tree species in North America.
White oak is important to the tight cooperage indus-
try, and has been a perennial favorite for furniture
manufacture. Yellow poplar is important for uphol-
stered furniture and container veneers. However, a
major deterrent to management of oak-hickory
forests has been the lack of adequate markets for less
desirable hardwoods, which are a part of most stands.

There are 20.3 million acres of aspen-birch forest
land in the North and over 80 percent is found in the
North Central region. This ecosystem is usually a
pioneer. If ecological succession is not interrupted by
fire, logging, or windstorm, it will gradually give way
to one of the other ecosystems because aspen, and, to
a lesser degree, the birches, are incapable of repro-
ducing in their own shade.

For upland and big game wildlife species, the
aspen-birch ecosystem is a particularly valuable plant
community. These forests provide a highly desirable
source of food and shelter for ruffed grouse, and
young seedling-sapling stands are an important
source of browse for deer and moose.

The white-red-jack pine ecosystem covers 11.8 mil-
lion acres in the North. The ecosystem has two dis-
tinct subsystems. In the Northeast, it is usually east-
ern white pine-eastern hemlock; in the North Central
region, red and jack pine are more important. If natu-
ral succession is permitted to continue, this ecosystem
eventually evolves to maple-beech-birch or fir-spruce.

Eastern white pine was a mainstay of the softwood
lumber industry in the late 1800’s and early 1900's. It
is still highly prized for its fine working qualities. Red
pine has a coarser texture and is used mostly for
rough construction lumber. Jack pine, a relatively
small rough tree, is used mainly as a source of soft-
wood puplwood. The white-red-jack pine ecosystem
is also significant to wildlife. Whitetailed deer and
black bear are the most common larger mammals in
this ecosystem and the jack pine subsystem provides
habitat for Kirtland’s warbler, an endangered species.

The aspen-birch forest type provides prime ruffed grouse habitat.

Trends in area— Across the North as a whole,
forest land area increased slightly during the 25 years
from 1952 to 1977. However, a decline of about
5 percent is expected over the next 50 years.

The two regions of the North have had different
trends in the past and this is expected to continue. In
the Northeast, forest land area increased 8 percent
during the 1952-1977 period. This increase . was
attributable almost entirely to the abandonment of
marginal crop and pasture land. In the North Central
region, forest land area has declined about 6 percent
during the past 25 years due almost entirely to land
clearing for agriculture. The current trends are
expected to continue over the next 50 years, although
at a more modest rate.

Ownership — Of the 162.4 million acres of forest
land in the North, 92 percent is in non-Federal,
mostly private, ownerships (table 2.3). In the north-
eastern States, the percentage of non-Federal owner-
ship is even higher; 96 percent of the forest land is in
private or non-Federal public ownerships.

The non-Federal forest lands in the Northern sec-
tion of the country are predominantly private lands
held by many owners whose individual holdings are
small in size. Maine, where half of the private land is
owned by forest industries, is an exception to this
ownership pattern.

Although non-Federal public forest lands are scat- °
tered throughout the States in the North, the largest

29

concentrations are in New York and Pennsylvania in
the Northeast, and in Michigan, Minnesota, and
Wisconsin.

Federal forest land in the North accounts for 13.6
million acres, only 8 percent of the total. National
Forest lands, which account for 84 percent of all Fed-
eral forests in the section, are found in 13 of the 20
States, but are concentrated in the North Central
region. The relatively small amount of public forest
land in the North emphasizes the importance of pri-
vate forests in meeting the many forest resource needs
of the large urban population.

Productivity — In the North, about 5 percent of the
forest land is capable of producing more than 120
cubic feet of wood per acre per year (table 2.4).
Another 16 percent is capable of producing 85-120
cubic feet per acre per year and 35 percent could
produce 50-85 cubic feet. Of the remainder, most is
marginal or submarginal as timber land, capable of
producing less than 50 cubic feet per acre per year.
About 6 million acres are potentially productive
forest lands reserved from timber production.

Generally speaking, the productive capability of
forest land is higher in the Northeast region than in
the North Central. In the Northeast, 30 percent of the
forest land can produce in excess of 85 cubic feet per
acre, while only 29 percent of forest area falls in the
0-50 cubic foot category. In the North Central region,
only 12 percent of the forest area can produce in
excess of 84 cubic feet per acre and the 0-50 cubic foot
class accounts for 52 percent of all forest land.

There are several reasons for the poorer forest pro-
ductivity in the North Central region. Through a
large portion of the northern Lake States, wet, boggy
lands support slow-growing black spruce, northern
white-cedar, and tamarack. Also, extensive areas that
were heavily logged and repeatedly burned are
covered with aspen and jack pine — two post-fire spe-
cies that come in under such adverse conditions. In
Missouri, where 71 percent of the forest land is in the
0-50 cubic foot class, large areas of shallow hardpan
soils support blackjack and post oak forest types.

Rangelands

Rangelands make up only a small portion — 1.8
million acres — of the land area of the 20 States in the
North. Most of the rangeland — 1.4 million acres — is
in Missouri (table 2.8). Practically all of the re-
mainder is in four States— Maryland, New Jersey,
Iowa, and Minnesota.

The wet grasslands and the prairie ecosystems are
the only rangeland ecosystems in the North. The wet
grasslands in the Northeast region are primarily

30

northern cordgrass prairie communities. Smooth and
saltmeadow cordgrasses and seashore saltgrass are
dominant grass species. Other important plants
include such forbs as seaside gerardia, sea-lavender,
seaside plantain, glasswort, and shore podgrass. In
the North Central region, the wet grasslands include
the tule marshes in low, poorly drained areas. Several
species of tules, bulrushes, and cattails are predomi-
nant plant species. Sedges are abundant and contrib-
ute significantly to the production of herbage.

The prairie ecosystem is the most important range-
land ecosystem in the North Central region. Two
communities, the bluestem prairie and the cedar
glades, dominate. The bluestem prairie, a rich and
productive mixture of grasses and forbs, was once a
sea of tall grasses between the eastern deciduous
forests and the shorter grasses of the plains grassland
ecosystem. Only vestiges remain now, as most of it
was converted to high-yielding croplands. Big and
little bluestem, switchgrass, and Indian grass are
major components of this once-extensive grassland
which also includes a large variety of forbs such as
leadplant, sunflower, blazing star, and surfpea. The
cedar glades, more common in Missouri than the
other States in the region, are less productive than the
bluestem communities. They have a very rich mixture
of grasses, forbs, and small trees: Hackberry, juniper
(redcedar), post oak and winged elm are common
trees. Grasses provide a good supply of forage for
grazing animals. Many of the forbs characteristic of
the bluestem prairies are also important plants in the
glades. Locally, shrubs such as coralberry and such
trees as blackjack oak, chinkapin, and black oak
become important members of the community.

Ownership — Private landowners and non-Federal
public agencies control 1.5 million acres, or 84 per-
cent, of the rangeland, in the North (table 2.3). Of the
294,000 acres of Federal rangelands, the Forest Ser-
vice administers 175,000, all in Missouri.

Productivity — The wet grasslands found in several
States in the North are the most productive ecosys-
tem of all those identified in this Assessment; produc-
tion ranges up to 10,000 pounds of herbage per acre
per year on the most productive sites. The prairie
ecosystem is the second most productive grassland
ecosystem, producing more than 3 tons of herbage
annually on a per acre basis.

Water Areas

The North has over half of the Nation’s water area
(table 2.1). Large and small inland lakes and streams
are found in every State in this section of the country.
About 60 percent of the 13.5 million acres of inland

water is in the North Central region, with largest
concentrations in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michi-
gan. Maine and New York in the Northeast also have
numerous inland water areas.

The northern section also has 42 million acres of
other water areas, most of the Nation’s total. The
largest part of this water area is in the Great Lakes;
the remainder is in the coastal estuaries, including
Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, Long Island Sound,
and New York Harbor.

The inland waters in the North provide habitat for
fish and waterfowl. With the heavy concentration of
population, particularly in the Northeast, they are
used by tens of miilions of people for various outdoor
recreation activities. They also provide most of the
water used for domestic and industrial purposes in
the area.

The South

The South stretches from Virginia and Kentucky
along the South Atlantic and along the Gulf Coast to
include Texas and Oklahoma. Much of this 13-State
section is characterized by a subtropical climate with
mild winters and high humidity, particularly in the
coastal plain and Piedmont areas. The Appalachian
Mountain area has cool winters and hot summers. In
both areas, rainfall is generally ample at all times of
the year. In contrast, the plains grasslands ecosystem
in west Texas has an arid climate with long, hot
summers.

The Coastal Plain has gentle slopes with little local
relief. Marshes, lakes, and swamps are common. The
Piedmont is gently sloping with local relief between
100 and 600 feet. The southern Appalachian Moun-
tains are steep with much relief up to 3,000 feet, and
peaks exceeding 6,000 feet. The western grassland
ecosystems are characterized by gently rolling plains.

Soils in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain are usually
strongly leached, rich in iron and aluminum oxides,
and deficient in many of the plant nutrients essential
for successful agricultural production. Loess areas of
the Mississippi Valley and flood plains of the major
streams have the better soils for crops in the South.

Forest Land

The South contains over 532 million acres of land
with forests a dominant part of the landscape. Forests
cover 41 percent of this area—219 million acres
(table 2.1).

The importance of forests as vegetative cover varies
by region and State within the South. In the five
Atlantic seaboard States, 91 million acres, or almost

Over half of the forest land in the South is grazed.

two-thirds of the land area, is forested. In the South
Central region, comprising eight Gulf Coast and inte-
rior States, only one-third of the land area is forested.
In the South Central region, forests reach their west-
ern limits in the arid rangelands of western Texas and
Oklahoma.

The forest ecosystems of the South include areas
that vary from highly productive timberlands to
extremely poor sites that are submarginal for invest-
ment in timber growing.

Native forage often grows abundantly beneath
timber stands, in natural openings, and on cutover
lands, providing food for substantial numbers of
range livestock.

The South is a major timber-producing region.
This is largely attributable to the loblolly-shortleaf
pine ecosystem, which occupies almost 48 million
acres. Loblolly pine is the keystone of the southern
pine forest products industry. Except in Florida,
where slash pine prevails, loblolly is the dominant
pine species in each of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal
tates south of New Jersey. Nearly half of the total
southern pine inventory in the United States is of
loblolly.

Although the standing inventory of shortleaf pine
is only about half that of loblolly, shorteaf is still far
more abundant than longleaf and slash pines com-
bined. The heaviest concentration of shortleaf pine is
in the Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas; other short-

31

7]

leaf areas are in east Texas and in the Piedmont,
especially the Carolinas.4 Throughout much of the
loblolly-shortleaf pine ecosystem, the two species
often grow in association. But shortleaf pine is also
found in commercial quantities well beyond the
botanical range of loblolly pine.

Bordering the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts from
South Carolina to east Texas is the longleaf-slash
pine ecosystem. Altogether, there are over 17 million
acres in the ecosystem, of which two-thirds is concen-
trated in Florida and Georgia. Widespread fire con-
trol enabled slash pine to invade sites formerly occu-
pied by longleaf; slash pine has also been extensively
planted through the ecosystem.

Nearly 32 million acres or 91 percent of the entire
oak-pine ecosystem is found in the South, frequently
in residual stands left after cutting of merchantable
pine in mixed pine-hardwood forests. Through cultu-
ral practices such as cull hardwood removal, some
areas have been converted to productive timberlands,
and other areas offer similar opportunities. The oak-
pine ecosystem, though not as productive as the pine
ecosystems for timber production, provides valuable
habitat for numerous wildlife species.

The 69 million acres in the oak-hickory ecosystem
make up one-third of the total forest land area in the
South. This ecosystem is composed of a large number
of species in many local associations growing on a
wide variety of sites. Some localities within the eco-
system are capable of growing choice industrial
hardwoods — examples are the loessial bluffs that
flank the eastern edge of the lower Mississippi Valley
and the deep coves of the southern Appalachians.
The ecosystem also occurs on millions of acres, espe-
cially on the Coastal Plain, that are regarded as better
adapted to growing pine than hardwoods.5

The relatively valuable swamp and bottomland
forests that make up the oak-gum-cypress and elm-
ash-cottonwood ecosystems total 33 million acres.
These ecosystems have long been the mainstay of the
southern hardwood forest products industry. In
recent years, however, changing land-use patterns
have adversely affected them. Extensive acreages of
prime bottomland hardwoods have been cleared for
agriculture on the alluvial soils of the Mississippi Val-
ley. At the same time, reservoirs in the South have
inundated sites capable of producing sweetgum,
tupelo, sycamore, and other preferred hardwood spe-

4Sternitzke, H. S., and T. C. Nelson. The southern pines of the
United States. Econ. Bot. 24(2):142-150. 1970.

5Sternitzke, H. S. Coastal plain hardwood problem. J. For.
76(3): 152-153. 1978.

6Sternitzke, H. S. Impact of changing land use of Delta
hardwood forest. J. For. 74(1): 52-57. 1976.

32

Areas of bottomland hardwoods, like this site formerly covered with
cypress and gum, have been cleared for crop or pasture use,
destroying prime timber stands and wildlife habitat for many
species.

cies. Though the impoundments are a boon to fishing
and other water-based recreation, they usually flood
acres that are above average in hardwood-producing
capability, and are also prime habitat for many wild-
life species.’

Other forest ecosystems that occur in the South
account for less than 10 percent of the total forest
area. Most of this acreage consists of woodlands in
central and west Texas and Oklahoma that are largely
useful for nontimber goods and services such as graz-
ing, wildlife, and recreation.

Most forests of the South provide good to excellent
habitat for wildlife. The hardwood and mixed
hardwood-conifer ecosystems, however, provide gen-
erally better habitat for a wide variety of wildlife than
do the pine forests. Deer and squirrel are important
game animals throughout the South. Hunting for
quail and turkey attracts people from outside the
South, and management of large tracts for these birds
is common in the Southeastern region. In addition,
parts of the South, especially along the Gulf Coast
and lower Mississippi, are important wintering areas
for migratory birds.

Recreational opportunities abound in the South’s
forests. Forested areas of the southern Appalachians
in Virginia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, and the
Ouachita and Ozark Mountains of Arkansas, are
focal points for many forms of outdoor recreation
and draw visitors from many parts of the country.
Throughout the South, most forested areas are
locally important to nearby populations for camping,
hunting, hiking, and other outdoor recreational
activities.

7Sternitzke, H. S. Eastern hardwood resources: trends and
prospects. For. Prod. J. 24(3):13-16. 1974.

Trends in area — During the past quarter of a cen-
tury, forest area in the South has increased in some
places, declined in others, and changed in composi-
tion as the result of shifts in land use. In 1952, forest
land totaled over 225 million acres; a decade later, it
had increased to almost 231 million acres. Many
farmers stopped cultivating land that was eroded, had
declined in fertility, or had otherwise proved sub-
marginal as cropland. This change occurred primarily
in upland areas, such as the Piedmont. These old
abandoned fields provided ideal conditions for natu-
ral reseeding, particularly by southern pines; many
were also planted. Although some forest land was
diverted to other uses, this diversion was over-
shadowed by the shift from crop- and pasture-land to
forest.

Since 1962, the trend has reversed, and forest
acreage has declined to a level of 219 million acres.
This decline signaled the end of significant additions
to forest through crop and pasture land abandonment.

Although reversions of crop and pasture land to
forest will continue, the additions are expected to be
minor in the future. Furthermore, there appears to be
no other major land use change in the offing that
would add significantly to forest land. Instead, forests
have been cleared to produce soybeans and other
crops, first in the Mississippi River alluvial valley and
more recently in such areas as the North Carolina
coast.’ Other shifts of land for nonforest uses include
conversion to pasture, urban expansion, reservoir

8 Carter, L. J. Agriculture: a new frontier in coastal North Caro-
lina. Science 189(4199): 272-275. 1975.

Although some abandoned crop and pasture land will revert to
forest land in the future, the additions are expected to be much less
than the losses.

construction, and powerlines. This loss had an impact
on timber production, as well as some other forest
uses. For example, cleared bottomlands represent an
important loss of highly productive wildlife habitat.
A few States have responded to this decline by pur-
chasing bottomlands for wildlife management areas.

The more productive forest sites in the Mississippi
Valley have been cleared for cropping, and the
remaining forest area may not be as desirable for
conversion. Thus, though clearing will probably con-
tinue, the rate of conversion will likely decline. It is
not yet apparent whether the large-scale clearing
noted in North Carolina will become more wide-
spread in the Atlantic Coastal Plain. The other major
agricultural use for cleared forest land has been pas-
ture. The shift to pasture has been on the upswing in
many areas of the South in recent years, and that
trend is expected to continue.

Land clearing for crops and pastures is but a part
of a larger changing land use pattern. Farmland itself
has been lost in recent years due to urban expansion
and other causes. As prime crop and pasture land is
taken for high-value commercial and _ residential
developments, the need for replacement land will
continue to impinge on forests.

Losses of forest land to other uses will also con-
tinue. Many metropolitan areas in the South are
growing, and rural homesites have also claimed forest
land. Powerlines, pipelines, highways, commercial
recreational developments, and a host of other uses
that are rather permanent in nature will continue to
take some forest.

Within the forest land category, the trend of
increases in productive-reserved forest is expected to
continue as demand for nontimber uses such as
recreation grows. Asa result, some public forest land
available for multiple use will likely be transferred to
reserved status. In the private sector, forest industry
is expected to increase its holdings as acquisition
opportunities become available. Miscellaneous pri-
vate ownerships have been affected the most by past
land use changes, and will continue to lose acreage as
forests are claimed for agriculture and other uses in
the years ahead.

Ownership — Non-Federal forests in the South
total 201.6 million acres, 92 percent of the South’s
forested area (table 2.3). Non-Federal public forest
lands, mostly State lands, are found in every southern
State. And private forest lands, about four-fifths of
which are in nonindustrial ownerships, constitute a
large majority of the forest area in each State.

Both regions in the South — the Southeast and the
South Central — have relatively little Federal land.
Of the 17.4 million acres of Federal forests, about 71

33

percent is administered by the Forest Service. These
Forest Service lands are found in each of the South’s
13 States; the greatest concentration is in Arkansas,
with 2.5 million acres. Of the other Federal forest
land, 5 million acres are scattered throughout this
section — primarily in National Parks and Monu-
ments, and Department of Defense facilities.

Productivity — The South’s forest lands have the
highest average potential for timber production of
any section of the country. Over 76 percent of the 219
million acres of forest are capable of producing 50
cubic feet or more per acre each year (table 2.4).

The South’s most productive forest lands, which
can produce over 120 cubic feet of wood per acre per
year, total 13.6 million acres. Most of this highly pro-
ductive land is situated in the South Central region.
This same region also accounts for over two-thirds of
the South’s 50.9 million acres capable of producing
85 to 120 cubic feet of wood per year.

Forest lands of moderately productive capacity —
50 to 85 cubic feet — account for almost half of the
South’s forest land total, and are almost evenly dis-
tributed between the South Central and Southeast
regions. The same even distribution between regions
is true for the 32 million acres in the 20-50 cubic foot
class.

In addition, almost 17 million acres of Southern
forest land have a productive capacity of less than 20
cubic feet per acre. About three-fourths of the total is
in west and central Texas and Oklahoma, mostly in
the pinyon-juniper and oak-hickory ecosystems.
Most of the remainder is in lowland sites in the Flor-
ida Panhandle.

Rangelands

Of the 323.2 million acres of forest and range land
in the South, one-third is rangeland, 97 percent of
which is in Texas and Oklahoma (table 2.8).

Nine rangeland ecosystems are represented in the
South. Scattered along the coastline from Virginia to
Texas are the northern and southern cordgrass prai-
ries, both part of the highly productive wet grasslands
ecosystem. Plants of the Virginia and Carolina coasts
are similar to those of the coastal prairies of the
North. On the southern cordgrass prairie, smooth
cordgrass, reed, seashore saltgrass, panic grasses, and
several species of bulrushes grow up to 8 feet in
height. In Florida, which accounts for most of the
Southeast’s 2.2 million acres of rangeland, the most
important communities of the wet grasslands ecosys-
tem are the palmetto prairie, with its wiregrass and
saw palmetto, and the Everglades dominated by saw-
grass and sweet and red bog.

34

Wet grasslands —a common range type along the
coastal areas of the South.

The South’s 13.6 million acres of prairie ecosystem,
centered in Oklahoma and Texas, are similar to the
prairie ecosystem in Missouri, but have some typi-
cally southern species such as Texas needlegrass. In
southern Texas, the prairie ecosystem may include
groves of oak-hickory forest. Typically, however, the
trees are short and branchy and generally considered
noncommercial. Further to the West, the 31.5 million
acres of shinnery and Texas savanna — mixed grass,
shrub and small tree lands — give way to more arid
shrub and grassland ecosystems.

The plains grassland ecosystem, the largest eco-
system in the contiguous States, totals 36.2 million
acres in the South, dominating western Oklahoma
and northern Fexas. Once termed “The Great Ameri-
can Desert” because of its lack of trees, the ecosystem
provided pastureland for millions of buffalo, elk, and
antelope. Though the large herds of wild animals are
gone, the medium and short grasses still remain to
provide forage for cattle and sheep as well as remnant
populations of wild ungulates. The plains grassland is
a mosaic of grass species whose distribution is
affected by local soil conditions. Blue, hairy, and
sideoats gramas, threeawn, and squirreltails are
common on well-drained sites.

Ownership — As in the north, the bulk of the range-
lands of the South are owned by private individuals
or corporations, States, counties, and local munici-
palities. The Forest Service administers almost a

{

quarter million acres in Texas and Oklahoma (table
2.5). Other Federal agencies administer 1.5 million
acres of rangeland, mostly in Texas, Oklahoma, and
Florida.

Productivity — Southern rangelands include both
the most and the least productive rangelands in the
contiguous States. The southern cordgrass and Ever-
glades communities of the wet grasslands ecosystem
average from 2 to 4 tons of herbage and browse pro-
duction annually. The best sites are capable of pro-
ducing 5 tons or more. The arid shrub and grass eco-
systems of western Texas are among the least
productive rangeland, producing only 200 to 400
pounds annually (table 2.6). Between these two
extremes are the prairie and Texas savanna eco-
systems, which annually average 3,300 and 2,100
pounds, respectively. On the best sites, however, they
may produce 5,000 to 6,000 pounds of herbage and
browse annually.

Water Areas

Water areas of the South total 23.4 million acres, 4
percent of the section’s total area (table 2.1). About
70 percent of both the total water area, and the 16
million acres in large bodies of inland water, are
located in five States— Virginia, Florida, North
Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas. The large inland
water area includes the lower Mississippi and its
major tributaries, the large lakes and waterways of
the Mississippi Delta, Lake Okeechobee and other
lowland lakes in Florida, and the many large water
impoundments constructed throughout the South for
flood control, power generation, recreation, and
water storage. Small ponds and streams total over
3 million acres, and are well distributed throughout
the South.

The natural and artificial inland waters, as well as
the 3.6 million acres of coastal bays and estuaries,
provide valuable habitat for fish and wildlife. While
most waters provide such habitat for resident popula-
tions of wildlife on a continuing basis, many water
areas in the South — such as the Mississippi Delta —
also provide crucial habitat for vast populations of
overwintering migratory birds. The areas also pro-
vide sites for water based recreational activities
enjoyed by millions of people each year.

The Rocky Mountains and Great Plains

The Rocky Mountain area stretches from Canada
to the Mexican border and includes eight States
(Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Colo-
rado, Arizona, and New Mexico). The neighboring

Great Plains area includes four States (North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). Together,
these areas contain 740 million acres, about one-third
of the entire land area of the United States.

This section of the country has a semiarid conti-
nental climate in which evaporation usually exceeds
precipitation, despite maximum rainfall during the
summer. Winters are cold and dry; summers warm to
hot. Winter precipitation is greater in mountainous
areas than in the plains area.

This vast section of the country exhibits many
landforms. The rolling plains of the Plains States and
eastern extremes of the Rocky Mountain States give
way to the steep, glaciated terrain of the Rocky
Mountains. The Rocky Mountain States are also
characterized by high elevation plateaus and interior
basins, and the highly eroded tablelands of Utah and
Arizona. In southern and western portions of this
section — Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada
—there are extensive desert areas.

The dominant soil-forming process is calcification,
with salinization on the poorly drained soils. Soils
often contain an excess of precipitated calcium car-
bonate and are very rich in bases. Organic matter
content is low except for forested areas and the tall
grass prairies. Moisture is generally the most limiting
factor for plant growth.

The Rocky Mountains have a wide range of land
forms and vegetation.

Table 2.8— Rangeland area in the contiguous States by ecosystem and section, region,
and State, 1976

(Thousand acres)

Total Grasslands
rangeland
and other Mountain Mountain Plains th Annual

forest grass- ES grass- Prairie grass-

land lands lands lands

Section, region,
and State

North:

Northeast:
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia

Total

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North Central:
Illinois
Indiana
lowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Ohio i

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Wisconsin 7.0 7.0
1,652.6 1,652.6 1,648.1

Total

Total, North 1,799.4 1,799.4 =) 1,648.1

South:

Southeast:
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia

Total 2,236.6 2,236.6 Perel

South Central:

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Texas 91,598.8 44,350.4

Total 101,890.6 54,037.4

Total, South 104,127.2 56,274.0

Rocky Mountain and
Great Plains:
Rocky Mountain:

Alabama 54.0 54.0 0 0
Arkansas 2 2 0 0
Kentucky 0 0 0 0
Louisiana 516.6 516.6 0 0
Mississippi 19.7 19.7 0 0
Oklahoma 9,300.9 8,696.1 0 0
Tennessee 400.4 400.4 0 0
0 0

0

0

Arizona 58,823.6 10,354.7 ‘ ; 0

Colorado 35,227.4 19,421.1 365. : 15,270.0

Idaho 24,182.4 1,797.6 : : 0

Montana 54,155.6 49,299.5 ; ? : 36,994.4 : ;
Nevada 62,735.7 635.5 i : 0 : 0
New Mexico 59,831.8 25,789.0 ; ; 14,097.7 : 10,881.2
Utah 39,614.7 2,469.5 3 ; 0 : 1,181.8
Wyoming 47,607.9 23,830.1 ; ; : 20,667.3 : me)

Total, Rocky Mountain 382,179.1 133,597.0 | 16,874.6 1,856.6 87,029.4 123. 21,993.8

‘Less than 0.05 thousand acres.

36

Table 2.8— Rangeland area in the contiguous States by ecosystem and section, region,

Section, region,
and State

North:

Northeast:
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia

Total

North Central:
Ilinois
Indiana
lowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Ohio
Wisconsin

Total
Total, North

South:

Southeast:
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia

Total

South Central:
Alabama
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas

Total

Rocky Mountain and
Great Plains:
Rocky Mountain:

Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
New Mexico
Utah
Wyoming

0 0 0 0
Total, Rocky Mountain | 198,535.5 | 104,523.2| 58, 26,911.4 | 1,629.7 ey 7,382.3 | 50,046.6 7,859.0

and State, 1976 — continued
(Thousand acres)

Shrublands Other forest land

wilt Chaparral-
Shinnery Mexas eDesert Total mountain | Pinyon-
savanna Sa juniper

western
shrub-
steppe

Sage- Desert
brush shrub

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SC}O00000000000

eC0000000
co000000

So0000000

SC0000000

eco000000
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SCO0000000
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SC0000000

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34,813.6

8,400.6
21,800.5

4,034.5
56,252.2
22,936.5
27,231.5
23,066.1

13,655.3
7,405.7
584.3
821.6
5,848.0
11,106.3
9,913.7
711.7

12,026.3
4,407.0
404.3
476.2
4,659.2
10,678.7
8,958.2
577.7

42,187.6

'Less than 0.05 thousand acres.

37

Table 2.8— Rangeland area in the contiguous States by ecosystem and section, region,
and State, 1976— continued
‘\ (Thousand acres)

Total
rangeland
and other Total
forest grass-
land lands

Section, region,
and State

Mountain
grass-

Great Plains:
Kansas 16,278.2 16,278.2
Nebraska 24,274.4 24,272.0

North Dakota
South Dakota

12,295.9
23,402.1

12,295.9
23,396.8

“Mountain
meadow

Grasslands

Plains
grass-
lands

Prairie Alpine

8,196.1
9,746.9
12,089.8

- 21,922.4

Total, Great Plains 76,242.9

76,250.6

Total, Rocky Mountain
and Great Plains

Pacific Coast:
Pacific Northwest:

Oregon 24,803.7
Washington 7,895.0
Total

Pacific Southwest:
California

Total

Total, Pacific Coast

Total, contiguous

States 650,344.7

‘Less than 0.05 thousand acres

Forest Land

Nearly 141 million acres, 19 percent of the total
land area of the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains
section, is forested (table 2.1). Forests of the Rocky
Mountain States total over 136 million acres, and are
predominantly softwood species (table 2.9). The most
heavily forested States, and the land areas occupied
by forest, are: Idaho, 41 percent; Colorado, 34 per-
cent; Utah, 30 percent; Arizona, 23 percent; Mon-
tana, 24 percent and New Mexico, 23 percent (fig.
2.3). Three States — Montana, Idaho, and Colorado
— have nearly half the total forest land in the Rocky
Mountains. Forests of the Plains States, which total
only 4.5 million acres, are largely of hardwood
species.

Two eastern hardwood ecosystems are found in the
Plains States: elm-ash-cottonwood in major river
bottoms, and oak-hickory, an upland forest type. The
five largest forest ecosystems in the Rocky Moun-
tains, totaling some 111 million acres, are pinyon-
juniper, ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, fir-spruce, and
lodgepole pine. Together these ecosystems account
for roughly 80 percent of the forest area in this sec-
tion of the country. All except pinyon-juniper are
important producers of wood products.

38

458,429.7 | 209,839.9] 16,938.2 1 vere ees 6 138, Mussels) 6 | 25,947.5 | 21,993.8 Pa

Fase | Sena ore | ee

53,289.7 17,074.6 4,194.2 1,230.2

o}o0000

51,955.2

475.2

The pinyon-juniper ecosystem occupies over 42
million acres, principally in the arid regions of Ari-
zona, New Mexico, western Colorado, Utah, and
Nevada. In Arizona and New Mexico, it is the pre-
dominant forest ecosystem. This rather uniform type
with few tree species occupies an elevation zone
below ponderosa pine and above the desert shrubs.
The species composition, however, changes geograph-
ically and can vary from pure pinyon to pure juniper.

The ponderosa pine ecosystem is found in all the
Rocky Mountain and Plains States except Kansas
and North Dakota. It occupies some 18 million acres,
nearly half of which is in Arizona and New Mexico.
Found primarily in the arid transition zone, it is the
first forest ecosystem of importance for wood pro-
duction encountered above the desert floor, and also
the most important in this section of the country in
terms of timber output. Ponderosa pine often consists
of pure stands, especially in Arizona, New Mexico,
and the Black Hills of South Dakota. In Idaho and
Montana, ponderosa is often associated with Douglas-
fir, larch, and other species requiring more moisture.

The Douglas-fir ecosystem in this section occupies
the area immediately above the ponderosa pine zone
and below the fir-spruce ecosystem. Over 12 million
of the total 17.5 million acres of this ecosystem are in

Table 2.8— Rangeland area in the contiguous States by ecosystem and section, region,
and State, 1976 — continued
(Thousand acres)

Shrublands Other forest land
Section, region, South- Chaparral- ,
and State eacs Doser wcerern Shinnery VEES Desert Total mountain EInYCR
brush shrub shrub- savanna tia juniper
steppe

Great Plains:
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota

Total, Great Plains

aA; ROOO

>;

Total, Rocky Mountain
and Great Plains

Pacific Coast:
Pacific Northwest:

14,994.6 ae
4,081.8

DSHS | [Wea] 58,088.9 | 26,911.4 1,629.7

emi cSS2: Cea hae t220

Oregon 18,461.3 | 2,417.0
Washington 4,081.8 m0)
Total 22,543.1 2,417.0

Pacific Southwest:
California

Total

Total, Pacific Coast

Total, contiguous
States

'Less than 0.05 thousand acres.

Idaho and Montana. Pure stands of Douglas-fir are
found in southeast Idaho, northern Colorado, Wyo-
ming, and Utah, wherever it has developed as a
climax forest. In Montana and northern Idaho, grand
fir, Engelmann spruce, and western larch are com-
mon associates and frequently are the dominant spe-
cies. In terms of timber output, this ecosystem is
second only to ponderosa pine in this section of the
country.

The lodgepole pine ecosystem typically consists of
pure, or nearly pure, very dense stands of the name-
sake species. This ecosystem totals nearly 17 million
acres, about 60 percent of which is in Idaho and
Montana; most of the rest is in western Wyoming and
central Colorado. Lodgepole pine stands are fre-
quently replaced through succession by such other
conifers as Douglas-fir, grand fir, and subalpine fir.
In many cases, however, pure stands of lodgepole
pine may take on the appearance of a climax type.
Dense stands in this ecosystem usually have no
understory flora.

Of the fir-spruce ecosystem, nearly all 16 million
acres are found in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colo-
rado, and Utah. The system occupies high elevation
areas where temperatures are cool and moisture
abundant. Grand fir, subalpine fir, and Engelmann

iors] aaee7 [of 0
al ers

spruce are major species. Some of the more common
associates in the northern Rocky Mountains are
larch, western redcedar, and western white pine. In
Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah, this ecosystem
occurs up to timberline.

The western white pine, larch, and hemlock eco-
systems are found exclusively in Idaho and Montana
and comprise less than 4 percent of the total forest
land in the section. The western white pine ecosystem
occupies roughly the same temperature belt as the
Douglas-fir ecosystem — moist sites above the pon-
derosa pine and below the fir-spruce. In this sub-
climax type, there is generally a mixture of western
redcedar, western hemlock, grand fir, Douglas-fir
and western larch, with ponderosa pine at lower eleva-
tions and Engelmann spruce at higher elevations.

The larch ecosystem occurs west of the Continental
Divide in Montana and generally north of the Sal-
mon River in Idaho. Western larch, a deciduous
conifer, is a subclimax species often maintained by
fire. In some areas of North Idaho, it is a pioneer
species. On cooler and moister sites, associated
species are Douglas-fir and grand fir; on drier sites,
ponderosa pine is found.

The hemlock ecosystem has both western and
mountain hemlock as major species. Mountain hem-

39

lock is found at higher elevations up to timberline in
association with whitebark pine, subalpine fir, and
Engelmann spruce. Western hemlock is a major com-
ponent of the ecosystem at elevations up to 6,000 feet.
Where western redcedar is a major associate, the
ecosystem may represent a climax forest; where exist-
ing areas of the ecosystem have followed fires, less
shade-tolerant species such as white pine and
Douglas-fir are still retained. About 85 percent of this
ecosystem is in Idaho.

The 1.3 million acres of the elm-ash-cottonwood
ecosystem are found along major river drainages in
the Plains States: the Red River in North Dakota, the
Big Sioux and James Rivers in eastern South
Dakota, the Platte and Republican Rivers in
Nebraska, and the Kansas River and its tributaries in
north-central Kansas. The oak-hickory ecosystem is
found in all the Plains States, but the most extensive
area is in east and southeast Kansas. North Dakota
has a small area of aspen-birch along the Canadian
border. The aspen-birch ecosystem is also found in
scattered areas throughout the Rocky Mountains.

The forest ecosystems of the Rocky Mountain
States are valued for a number of uses. While an
important segment of the Nation’s softwood timber
industry depends on these forests, some forests are
also components of valuable wilderness areas. This
section’s forests provide dispersed recreation oppor-
tunities for millions of people, habitat for big game
animals including elk and mule deer, and are among
the most valuable watersheds in the Nation. Because
much of the region is sparsely settled and relatively
inaccessible for logging, only in recent years have
conflicts among alternative forest land uses become a
matter of widespread concern. However, increased
accessibility and the growing demand for outdoor
recreation, wilderness protection, and timber have
made the forests of this section highly prized by a
wide range of interests.

Trends in area — Historical trends in forest area in
the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains section are
difficult to evaluate because of lack of early historical
data. Some forest land was cleared of trees for early
settlement and, in many cases, forests were exploited
for railroad ties, mine timbers, and charcoaling for
ore reduction. Most areas cleared for these latter uses
have reverted back to forest.

During the past 10 years, total forest land area in
the section has declined by 600,000 acres. The bulk of
this loss occurred in the southwest in the pinyon-
juniper ecosystem, where large areas have been
cleared for livestock range.

Future prospects are for forest land acreage to
remain relatively stable. Although some decline in

40

area can be expected from water development proj-
ects and conversion to range, these reductions should
be minor.

Even though the total area of forest land is not
expected to change significantly in the future, alloca-
tion of forest land for various uses may change. In the
Rocky Mountain States, 3 million acres of roadless
areas on the National Forests are being evaluated for
suitability for inclusion in the Wilderness System.
The forest land associated with those areas selected
will not be used to produce timber, although most
other resource uses and values would be maintained
and available in varying degrees.

Ownership — About 68 percent of the forest land
in the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains section is
administered by Federal agencies. In the Plains
States, 72 percent of the forests are in private and
State or county ownership (table 2.3). Most Federal
land in this region is in the Black Hills National
Forest in South Dakota.

In the Rocky Mountain States, Federally owned or
administered forest land totals 94 million acres, two-
thirds of the forest area. No State has less than 51
percent of the forest land in Federal ownership; and
Idaho has 77 percent, Utah, 74 percent, Montana, 72
percent, and Nevada 86 percent.

The Forest Service administers the majority of
Federal forest lands in every Rocky Mountain State
except Nevada and Utah, where the Bureau of Land
Management has the major holdings. For the section
as a whole, the Forest Service manages over 67 mil-
lion acres of forest, almost half of all forest lands.

Non-Federal, mostly private, forest lands are
found in every State in the section, but constitute the
majority of forest land only in three Plains States —
Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota. Most of the
small amount of forest land owned by forest indus-
tries is in Idaho and Montana; most of that held by
nonindustrial private owners is in Idaho, Montana,
Colorado, and. New Mexico.

Productivity — Based on the capacity of the land to
produce wood fiber, the productivity of the forest
land in the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains sec-
tion is low. About half the forest land cannot produce
20 cubic feet of wood per acre per year, the standard
below which forest land is generally considered unpro-
ductive (table 2.4). Less than 20 percent has the
capacity to produce 50 or more cubic feet per acre per
year. The most highly productive land is found in
northern Idaho and in Montana west of the Conti-
nental Divide. In these two States, some 19 million
acres are capable of producing in excess of 50 cubic
feet per acre per year.

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41

There is some variation in productivity among
ecosystems, due to the site requirements of the species
and the soil-moisture-temperature relationships char-
acteristic of the sites on which the ecosystems occur.
The ecosystems occupying the most highly productive
land are Douglas-fir, ponderosa pine, and fir-spruce.

At the other end of the scale are pinyon-juniper
and chaparral-mountain shrub; because of the very
nature of these systems and the climatic conditions
under which they exist, they cannot produce even 20
cubic feet of wood per acre per year. However, the
combined 50 million acres of these two types is valu-
able for other resource uses.

In addition, some 11.5 million acres of forest land
that is capable of producing 20 cubic feet or more per
acre annually is in either a reserved category where
timber cannot be harvested, or ina deferred category
under study for possible use as wilderness.

Rangelands

About half of the rangelands in the United States is
in the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. The
rangelands, along with the pinyon-juniper and
chaparral-mountain shrub forest ecosystems (which
are often included with the rangeland ecosystems),
occupy some 458 million acres or 62 percent of the
land area of this section (table 2.8). The Rocky
Mountains and the Great Plains areas differ greatly
in physical and climatic characteristics and corre-
sponding differences in rangeland ecosystems.

The Great Plains area with its hot, dry summers
and cold, windswept winters is dominated by grasses
— short, medium, and tall. Interspersed within these
grasslands are stringers of deciduous forest along the
tributaries of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.
Coniferous forests cover isolated mountain uplifts
such as the Black Hills in South Dakota and the Bear
Paws in Montana. About 26 million acres of the east-
ern part of the Plains are covered with tall grasses of
the prairie ecosystem, including big, little, and sand
bluestems; switchgrass; and Indian grass with a rich
assortment of forbs. To the west, the prairie eco-
system gives way to the short and medium grasses of
the vast plains grassland, which totals 139 million
acres, and is the largest in the United States. The
bluestems, switchgrass, and Indian grass are replaced
by thickspike and western wheatgrass, green needle-
grass, needle-and-thread, blue grama, and buffalo
grass. The grasslands also include a large and colorful
variety of forbs mostly from the aster, snapdragon,
pea, and wild buckwheat families.

West of the Great Plains is the Rocky Mountain
region, a land of contrasts in temperatures, physio-

42

The Great Plains area is dominated by grasses.

graphic relief, and vegetation. Rangelands of this
area are usually divided into three general kinds —the
foothill and mountain grasslands, the lush mountain
meadows and alpine grasslands of the Rockies
proper, and the arid and semiarid shrublands and
grasslands of the deserts, interior basins, and isolated
mountain ranges of the Southwest.

The mountain grasslands, totaling almost 17 mil-
lion acres, are found in all of the Rocky Mountain
States. Montana accounts for over two-thirds of the
acreage. Bluebunch wheatgrass, needle-and-thread,
rough and Idaho fescues, June grass, and oatgrass are
the important grasses in the foothills and mountain
grasslands of the northern Rockies. In the central and
southern Rockies, rough and Idaho fescues are re-
placed by Thurbers and Arizona fescue. Forbs make
up a large part of the herbaceous vegetation in this
ecosystem. Penstemons, larkspurs, lupines, phloxes,
vetches, forget-me-not, and brown-eyed susan are
colorful components of these ecosystems.

Mountain meadows and alpine grasslands cap the
highest ridges and the flanks of the tallest peaks
throughout the Rockies. Bent grasses, tufted hair-
grass, sedges of many species, mountain timothy and
bluegrasses, many forbs, and patches of dwarf wil-
lows provide a close and tight ground cover through-
out the alpine area in spite of the short growing sea-
son and severe climate common to the area.

Sagebrush is the second largest rangeland ecosys-
tem in the United States. Over 104 million acres, or
80 percent of this ecosystem, is in the Rocky Moun-
tain area. It is the major vegetation of the Snake
River plains of Idaho, the Bighorn and Wyoming
Basins in Wyoming, the basins and isolated mountain

ranges of Nevada and Utah, and the Colorado Pla-
teaus of Arizona. Associated with the many species of
sagebrush are wheatgrasses, fescues, bluegrasses and
bromes, and broadleaved forbs, all well adapted to
the harsh climatic conditions of the area.

Generally south of the sagebrush ecosystem (but
interspersed with it in Nevada) lie some 50 million
acres of two forest ecosystems often grouped with range —
pinyon-juniper and chaparral-mountain shrub. The
pinyon-juniper ecosystem, the so-called pygmy forest
of the Southwest, is characterized by juniper and
pinyon pine growing as open to dense woodlands or
savannas. Understory vegetation of wheatgrasses,
Indian ricegrass, gramas, and shrubs such as moun-
tain mahogany, sagebrush, and rabbitbrush, depends
to a large extent upon the density of the crown can-
opy. Intermingled with and below the pinyon-juniper
lies the main portion of the chaparral ecosystem.
Dense-to-open stands of deciduous and evergreen
low trees and shrubs occupy the lower flanks of the
mountains in Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. Principal
trees are alligator and one-seeded junipers and several
evergreen oaks. Shrubs such as manzanita, cliff-rose,
ceanothus, Apache plume, and silktassel, sometimes
form stands so dense that herbaceous vegetation is
absent. The acreage in this ecosystem has been
reduced in the southwest through clearing to increase
forage yields.

Below the pinyon-juniper and the chaparral on
even more arid sites, are 80 million acres of the desert
shrub and desert grassland ecosystems. Desert shrubs
vary from a few inches to several feet tall, and are
generally in open stands interspersed among areas of
bare soil and rock pavement. Mesquite and acacia are
low-growing trees present in the ecosystem. Black-
brush, creosote bush, palo verde, jojoba, prickly pear,
cholla, and other cactuses form open to very dense
shrub stands. Herbaceous species are mostly absent
except in the years of high winter and spring mois-
ture. In such years, forbs that have been unseen for
many years will form bright carpets of color.

The dry desert grassland ecosystems occur on
tablelands in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. Vege-
tation is predominantly grass with blue grama, gal-
leta, and tabosa being the most common. Shrubs are
few and forbs generally not prominent except in the
occasional years of abundant rainfall.

The rangelands of the Rocky Mountains and Great
Plains support the Nation’s range cattle and sheep
industries. Cow-calf operations based here provide
many of the beef cattle that eventually pass through
feedlots on their way to packing plants and to the
Nation’s tables. These rangelands also support wild
horses and burros, antelope, deer, and bighorn sheep,
and provide winter range for elk.

The role of the rangelands in the Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains in providing outdoor recreation
opportunities varies because of the great variation in
the lands themselves. Mountain meadows and alpine
areas are used for primitive and wilderness camping.
Off-road vehicle excursions are common over desert
and semi-desert areas.

Established wilderness areas in the Rocky Moun-
tains include some rangelands, especially the moun-
tain meadows in the Rocky Mountain States. How-
ever, there are few untouched remnants of the
rangelands in the Great Plains, and little has been
done to protect examples of desert rangeland types.
Desert rangelands are likely to receive consideration
in the near future as the Bureau of Land Management
prepares an inventory of potential wilderness areas
on lands it administers.

Ownership — About 58 percent of the rangeland
area in the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains is in
non-Federal ownership (table 2.3). In the Great
Plains States, 95 percent of the rangeland is in non-
Federal ownership; but 50 percent is Federally owned
in the Rocky Mountain States. The Forest Service
administers 7 percent of the rangeland in the section;
the Bureau of Land Management, 30 percent; and the
other Federal agencies, only 4 percent. In Nevada,
the Federal agencies administer 92 percent of all
rangelands.

Productivity — Productivity of the rangeland eco-
systems in the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains is
highly variable. The grassland and prairie ecosystems
of the Great Plains produce on the average 1,000 to
3,000 pounds of herbage and browse per year (table
2.6). On the better sites, they will yield as much as
7,000 pounds per acre. In the rest of the section, only
the mountain meadows average better than a ton of
herbage and browse per acre. Except for sagebrush
and chaparral-mountain shrub, the arid and semi-
arid ecosystems of the Southwest produce only small
amounts of herbage and browse, averaging well
below a half ton. The sagebrush and chaparral
ecosystems will average from 1,000 to 2,000 pounds
per acre, with as much as 3,000 pounds on the best
sites.

Water Areas

The Rocky Mountains and Great Plains section is
the driest in the country in terms of rainfall. And it
has the smallest water area —in absolute as well as
relative terms — of all of the sections. The total water
acreage —all inland water—is 9.3 million acres,
slightly more than | percent of the total area (table
2.1). The largest concentrations of water are in Utah,
Montana, North and South Dakota.

43

The water areas of the Dakotas and Montana
include the upper Missouri river system with its large
water impoundments, and many water storage reser-
voirs. Utah has 20 percent of this section’s water,
concentrated mostly in the Great Salt Lake.

In addition to the major river systems flowing from
the Rocky Mountains—the Missouri and Snake in
the Northern Rockies, and the Colorado — this
mountainous area has many small lakes and streams.
Arizona, Utah, and Nevada have minimal amounts of
these small waters.

Although the inland water areas in the Rocky
Mountains and Great Plains are relatively small, they
are of great importance. They support fish and wild-
life and are the focal points for many outdoor recrea-
tional activities. They also provide most of the water
for domestic use and for the irrigation of much of the
cropland and improved pasture in the more arid parts
of the section.

The Pacific Coast

This section includes five States: California,
Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii. The range
of environmental conditions within the region is
extreme.

The coastal areas of Southeast Alaska, Washing-
ton, Oregon, and Northern California are character-
ized by a maritime climate with ample precipitation
and small ranges in annual temperature. Precipita-
tion ranges from 30-150 inches or more and is well
distributed throughout the year. Temperatures are
cool and produce a very damp, humid climate with
much cloud cover. This area has many steep, rugged
mountains fronted in places by narrow coastal plains.
The interior mountains rise to 8,000 feet or more.
Much of the area has been glaciated, particularly in
the northern portion. Soils are strongly leached and
acid and have thick surface organic layers. They are
highly productive for coniferous forests.

In contrast, the eastern portions of Oregon and
Washington, and northeastern California are similar
to the more semi-arid Rocky Mountain region. This
area is a relatively dry upland with occasional moun-
tain uplifts, and is dissected by the Columbia River
and its major tributaries. Soils are very productive
where water is available.

Most of California is dominated by a Mediterra-
nean climate with distinct wet and dry seasons. Pre-
cipitation falls mainly in the winter months and
summers are hot and dry. Physiography ranges from
the flat central valley to the steep, low mountains on
the coast and the high, rugged Sierra Nevada in the
interior. Soils are extremely variable.

44

The northern and western coastal plains of Alaska
are dominated by an arctic climate with short cool
summers and long, extremely severe winters. Precipi-
tation is light, often less than 10 inches. Broad, level
plains and low, rolling foothills occupy the area. The
tundra soil sare wet and cold, and underlain by sand,
gravel, and marine sediments. Most soils have a thick
permafrost layer.

Interior Alaska is characterized by a subarctic cli-
mate and the steep, rugged Brooks and Alaska
Mountain ranges. Broad valleys, dissected uplands,
and lowland basins occur between the mountain
ranges. Soils are strongly leached and have severe
climatic limitations. Permafrost is common.

The islands of Hawaii have a tropical climate and
are hilly and mountainous. The islands have a com-
plex pattern of leached soils, rocky highlands, and
coastlines.

Forest Land

Forests cover 93 million acres, or 46 percent, of the
land in the lower Pacific Coast States — California,
Oregon, and Washington (table 2.1). The forests in
these States are known throughout the world for their
large trees. Less well known, but of great importance
to resource managers, is the extreme variability in
productivity and composition of the forest.

The lower Pacific Coast States’ forest ecosystems
fall into two forest subregions — the humid coastal
area, and the arid eastern or interior area.

The coastal subregion — western Washington and
Oregon, and northwestern California —has three
major forest types, redwood, Douglas-fir, and
hemlock-sitka spruce. The forests in this subregion of
heavy rainfall and mild winters are among the most
productive in the world. Biomass accumulations in
the redwood and Douglas-fir ecosystems exceed
those reported for any other ecosystem.?

The redwood ecosystem of the California Coast
totals only about 800,000 acres, but is important as a
timber producing region, scenic wonder, and recre-
ational resource far out of proportion to its limited
acreage (table 2.9). Douglas-fir is the major conifer
associate throughout the ecosystem, although west-
ern hemlock, grand fir, and western redcedar are
locally important. Tanoak and Pacific madrone are
common hardwood associates throughout most of
this ecosystem.

The Douglas-fir ecosystem, which totals 21 million
acres, is the largest and most important in terms of

9 Franklin, J. F., and C. T. Dryness. Natural vegetation of
Oregon and Washington. U.S. Department of Agriculture, For.
Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-8. 1973.

A forest of giant redwoods — an important timber and recreational resource in the Coastal regions of northern California.

timber production of all forest ecosystems in the
coastal subregion. It dominates most of the forested
area in Washington and Oregon west of the Cascade
Range crest, except for the most humid coastal sites.
In northern California, it is found generally east of
the redwood forests in the coast ranges.

Although Douglas-fir is often found in almost pure
stands, common associates include western hemlock
and western redcedar. To the south, this ecosystem
includes tanoak, live oaks, and pacific madrone. Red
alder, tanoak, and hemlock often succeed this shade
intolerant species following disturbance.

The hemlock-Sitka spruce ecosystem is found on
the Washington and Oregon coasts; it totals almost
6 million acres in these two States, and is limited to
moist sites, mostly on the coastal side of the coast
range and Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. The
namesake species of this ecosystem have long been of
secondary value to Douglas-fir, but, in recent years,
they have found increased use in this country for
lumber as well as pulp and as log exports.

The predominant use of these three forest ecosys-
tems has been for timber production. In 1970, soft-
wood sawtimber output from these forests accounted
for about one-third of the Nation’s total, from only
6 percent of the Nation’s timberlands. The forests
also support a rich variety of wildlife; and the streams
in the region are used by most of the anadromous
salmonids in the contiguous United States.

As in other parts of the country, recreational use of
these forest ecosystems is important and has been
increasing. At higher elevations, especially in the
Cascades, the forest floor is relatively open and suit-
able for hiking and backpacking. Heavy winter snow
accumulations above 4,000 feet have made the forests
of the Cascades attractive for winter sports.

The interior subregion of Oregon, Washington,
and California has forest ecosystems suited to the
hot, dry summers and cold winters of this area. The
forests of much of the area are similar in composition
to Rocky Mountain forests, but they are generally
more productive. The largest specimens of ponderosa

45

pine, lodgepole pine, and Engelmann spruce are
found here.!°

Nine forest ecosystems are found mostly in the
interior portions of Oregon, Washington, and Cali-
fornia. Of these, the largest and perhaps most impor-
tant for several uses is the ponderosa pine ecosystem,
which totals almost 16 million acres. About half of
this area is in California, where ponderosa pine is
found in the interior coast ranges and on the lower
west slopes and east side of the Sierra Nevada. In
Oregon and Washington, ponderosa pine is found on
the easternmost slopes of the Cascades and at lower
elevations in the mountains east of the Cascades.
Stand composition varies from pure stands to stands
with numerous associates; depending upon location,
these associates include western larch, Douglas-fir,
sugarpine, true firs, lodgepole pine and incense-cedar.
Ponderosa pine forests are favored for camping,
hunting, and hiking, due largely to the open parklike
nature of mature stands. They also are important to
the livestock industry for grazing, and have sup-
ported the important western pine lumber industry
for over a century.

The fir-spruce ecosystem in these three States totals
13.5 million acres. It is found at medium to high ele-
vations in most mountain ranges from southern Cali-
fornia to the Canadian border. The fir-spruce forests
of California are dominated by white fir and Califor-
nia and shasta red firs; in Oregon and Washington,
Pacific silver fir, noble fir, alpine fir, grand fir, and
Engelmann spruce are the primary species. The fir
forests were for decades of little importance for
timber, but were valued as part of the scenic beauty of
the high mountains. As the more accessible pine
forests have been harvested, the fir forests have been
increasingly utilized for timber, and in many areas are
now approaching the pine forests in terms of total
output.

The lodgepole pine ecosystem totals 4.2 million
acres, and is found at high elevations in California’s
Sierra Nevada, and in many mountain locations from
the Cascades east in Oregon and Washington.

Western larch and western white pine are two
conifer ecosystems whose occurrence and acreage are
limited in these States.

The western hardwood ecosystem is well repre-
sented in each State, and totals 9 million acres. In
California and southern Oregon, California black
oak, tanoak, live oaks, and Pacific madrone are
major species; further north, red alder and bigleaf
maple are the primary species. This ecosystem is often
found on disturbed sites that formerly were domi-
nated by conifers. Often found intermingled with

10 American Forests 72(5), 1966, and 73, Nov. 9, 1976.

46

Ponderosa pine —a characteristic forest in the Sierra Nevada
mountains and on the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

conifer forests, the hardwood ecosystem is highly
valued for wildlife habitat. The three other ecosys-
tems found in these States—chaparral, pinyon-
juniper, and miscellaneous woodlands — total 19 mil-
lion acres (table 2.9).

The 7.6 million acre area of chaparral stands —
dense evergreen, woody shrubs — is almost entirely in
California; it is the predominant form of forest cover
in the mountains in southern California, and is found
in coast ranges and the Sierra Nevada to the north.
Most of the 6.3 million acres of miscellaneous wood-
lands is also found in California, where it is the lowest
elevation forest community in the foothills of the
coast range and Sierra Nevada surrounding the Great
Central Valley. Several species of oaks and Digger
pine are most common in this ecosystem. The pinyon-
juniper forests are found in eastern Oregon and in
California, generally east of the Sierra Nevada and in
the mountains of southern California.

These three ecosystems, due to type and yield of
vegetation, have very limited value for production of
wood products. But they are important as wildlife
habitat, and beneficial for watershed protection. To
stockmen, these forests are a nuisance. Because graz-
ing is their predominant use, the main treatment has
been designed to get rid of the cover by burning or
mechanical means. The hardwoods, long used for
home fires, are now being considered as a possible
source of energy on a larger scale.

The forests of Alaska total 119 million acres, 56
percent of the total forest area of the Pacific Coast
region (table 2.1). In productivity and timber vol-
umes, the Alaska forests are much less important
than those to the south. Only in southeast Alaska are
there substantial areas of productive forest land
accessible for timber harvesting. The 12.7 million
acres of hemlock-Sitka spruce—the dominant coastal
ecosystem — are found from sea level to an elevation
of 2,000 feet on the islands and along the fiords of the
Alexander Archipelago and southeast Alaska.

The interior forests of Alaska are an extension of
the Canadian taiga and aspen-birch forests. The 83.4
million acres of the fir-spruce ecosystem and 22.7 mil-
lion acres of hardwood forest are in some places
locally important for timber processing. However,
most of these forests are far from markets, inaccessi-
ble, and some 80 percent are not capable of growing
more than 20 cubic feet per acre annually. The more
productive forests are limited to the major interior
river valleys.

Both the intericr forests and those of southeast
Alaska include vast untrammeled areas that support
wildlife in wilderness or near-wilderness settings.
Many of the streams contain spawning areas that
support the major salmon fishery of North America.
Some of these forests, which are intermingled with
spectacular mountains, are being considered by Con-
gress for inclusion in the National Park System and
the National Wildlife Refuge System. In addition, a

number of major areas are being reviewed for wilder-
ness designation.

Trends in area — Forest areas have decreased sig-
nificantly in parts of the Pacific Coast section since
1952. The decline in forest areas in the lower Pacific
Coast States since 1952 totals over 3 million acres,
and includes 1.2 million acres capable of producing
more than 20 cubic feet of wood per acre per year and
1.8 million acres of lesser capability. For the 1.2 mil-
lion acres in the higher productivity group, the great-
est causes of loss were road building and grazing
clearings in Oregon, and urban expansion in the
Puget Sound area in Washington.

In California, clearing for grazing and reservoir
construction were the leading causes of forest land
losses. Almost all of the decline in forest land area for
the lower productivity groups occurred in California,
where about 1.7 million acres‘of oak and chaparral
have been converted to rangeland since 1952!! and
100,000 acres have been converted to roads, reser-
voirs, and other clearings. The decline in California
more than offsets an increase in areas of these lands
in Oregon and Washington. Juniper woodland has
expanded markedly on calcareous soils in eastern
Oregon. This is a result of overgrazing in the early
1900’s followed by fire control, which favored juniper
over the bunchgrass and sagebrush. Foothill and
mountain meadows have steadily closed in due to
encroachment of trees and brush. Fire control and
changing water tables are thought to be the primary
causes.

In recent years, the rate of conversion of timber-
lands and brushlands to farm and open grazing lands
has decreased rapidly in California, due in large part
to limitations on the use of fire for conversions. It is
anticipated that these and other limitations will serve
to slow the rate of such conversions in the future.

Road, reservoir, and powerline development, as
well as urbanization in some areas, will likely con-
tinue to make inroads into the acreage of forests on
the Pacific Coast.

Ownership — Almost three-fourths of the 214 mil-
lion acres of forest land on the Pacific Coast are
administered by agencies of the Federal government
(table 2.3). In Alaska, 94 percent of the forest area is
currently under Federal administration; but selection
of State lands and native claims from public domain
lands will change the distribution considerably. Cur-
rently, the Bureau of Land Management administers
80 percent of the Federal forests in Alaska, the Forest
Service, 11 percent.

‘State of California Division of Forestry. Brushland Range
Improvement. (Annual report). 1954-1974.

47

Of all forest lands, Federal ownership represents 63
percent in Oregon, 41 percent in Washington, and 47
percent in California. In Washington and California,
National Forests account for almost all of the Federal
forests. In Oregon, however, the Bureau of Land
Management manages 25 percent of the Federal
forests, and the Forest Service, most of the re-
mainder. There are no Federal forest lands in Hawaii.
The non-Federal lands are largely privately owned in
Oregon, Washington, and California, but in Hawaii,
State ownership is important.

Of over 26 million acres of private forest in the
Pacific Coast States that can produce in excess of 20
cubic feet of wood annually, 47 percent is owned and
managed by forest industries. Industry ownership has
increased in recent years through purchase of other
nonindustrial, private lands; forest area in the
nonindustrial-private category has been decreasing
due to industrial acquistion and conversions to other
uses.

Productivity — Two-thirds of the forest acres of
the Pacific Coast are in the lowest productivity class;
they do not have the capability to produce 20 cubic
feet of wood per year. Over three-fourths of these low
productivity forests are found in Alaska’s harsh
interior. Most of the remainder is in the chaparral
forest and wooded lowlands of California, and the
pinyon-juniper forests in Oregon, Washington, and
California.

This section also has 38 million acres of forests
capable of producing from 50 to 120 cubic feet of
wood, and almost | 1 million acres in the class of 20 to
50 cubic feet. In addition, about 4 million acres, or 2
percent, of the forests are capable of producing in
excess of 20 cubic feet, but are reserved from timber
production due to inclusion in parks and wilderness
areas. The acreage in this latter category is likely to
increase somewhat in the future.

The productivity of the Pacific Coast forests is as
variable for other outputs or uses as it is for timber.
Recreation, wildlife habitat, water yield, and forage
yield all vary with ecosystem; sites less productive for
timber can be highly productive in terms of other
uses.

Rangelands

Over one-third of the Nation’s rangelands are in
the Pacific Coast section. Altogether, the rangelands
(including pinyon-juniper and chaparral-mountain
shrub) occupy 318.4 million acres, about 56 percent

48

of the five-State area (tables 2.1, 2.8). Almost three-
fourths of the rangeland is in Alaska. Minor amounts
are in Hawaii.

The rangeland ecosystems can be broken into three
groups, those in California, Oregon and Washington;
those in Alaska; and those in Hawaii.

The rangeland ecosystems of California, Oregon,
and Washington are similar to those of the Rocky
Mountains region. The grasslands ecosystems in
these three States total about 25 million acres. The
mountain grasslands of some 10 million acres are
found in abundance in all three States (table 2.8). The
mountain meadow and alpine grassland ecosystems
are found at high elevations in each State, accounting
for over 4.5 million acres in total. The wet grassland
ecosystem is found in limited areas in California. The
central valleys of California were once occupied by
highly productive tule marshes of that ecosystem, but
most of those marshes have been converted to crop-
land and are no longer part of the rangeland base.

The annual grasslands of California — totaling 10
million acres —are unique in that the vegetation is
dominated by annual grasses, most of which are not
native to the United States. Dominant plants are wild
oats, bromes, wild barley, and species of fescue.
Forbs are of secondary importance, except during
years of abundant rainfall when the California poppy
forms a blazing orange blanket over much of the
rangelands. Filaree, a member of the geranium fam-
ily, is probably the most important forb in the annual
grasslands. This ecosystem is found in uncultivated
areas of California’s Great Central Valley, and in the
low foothills surrounding it.

Oregon and California have a combined total of
over 44 million acres of shrub ecosystems and 12.7
million acres of the two forest ecosystems often
included with range — chaparral and pinyon-juniper.
Most of the 23 million acres of desert shrub is found
in the desert interior of southern California; about 3.5
million acres are located in southeastern Oregon. The
sagebrush ecosystem in this section totals 25 million
acres, 15 million acres of which are in arid lands of
eastern Oregon. In California, the sagebrush eco-
system is mostly in the northeastern corner of the
State.

The Alaska rangelands total over 231 million acres.
The Alaskan tundra ecosystems are dominated by
low shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs. Cottongrass is
the most widespread of all vegetative types in the
tundra ecosystems. In the wet sites, cottongrass and
other sedges form a dense mat, but in moist sites, it
forms a continuous well-developed cover of tussocks.
In the drier sites, cottongrass and sedges give way to

low shrubs such as cranberries, dwarf willows, bog
rosemary, and Labrador tea. In the Aleutian tundras,
the tall bluejoint reedgrass and low heath shrubs are
dominant. Shrub thickets are composed of dense to
open stands of alder, devilsclub, salmonberry, willow,
and blueberries. Vegetation of the muskeg-bog, with
its high water tables, is characterized by sphagnum
moss, sedges, rushes, lichens, and low shrubs.

The Hawaiian rangelands, which total almost |
million acres, are a mixture of trees including koa,
guava, and sandalwood; shrubs (cactus and mes-
quite), and grasses (tanglehead and hairgrasses).

Productivity — Productivity of the rangelands in
the three lower Pacific Coast States ranges from
about 5,100 pounds per acre in the wet grasslands to
about 250 pounds in some of the communities of the
desert shrub ecosystem (table 2.6). The annual grass-
lands are surprisingly productive, averaging better
than 2,000 pounds per acre. On the better sites, the
annual grasslands can be expected to average 3,000
pounds or more. This type has consistently shown
marked and profitable response to fertilization.

The Alaskan ecosystems have generally low pro-
ductivity levels. Only the shrub thickets and the Aleu-
tian moist tundra with the tall bluejoint reedgrass
produce over a ton of herbage and browse per acre on
their best sites. In Hawaii, the grass-shrub-barren
mosaic is the highest, averaging almost 4,200 pounds
per acre and capable of producing up to 9,000 pounds
on the best sites.

Ownership — Rangelands in the three States of
California, Oregon, and Washington are about
equally split between the Federal Government and
non-Federal owners (table 2.3). In Washington,
which has the smallest area of rangelands of the three
States, over three-quarters is in non-Federal owner-
ship. In Oregon and California, on the other hand,
only 41 percent is in non-Federal ownership. Over 64
percent of the Federal rangeland in these three States
is administered by the Bureau of Land Management.

Of the 231 million acres of rangeland in Alaska,
225 million acres, or 97 percent, is in Federal owner-
ship. The Bureau of Land Management administers
the great bulk of the Federal rangelands in the State,
196 million acres, or 87 percent. The Forest Service
administers only 8 million acres and the other Federal
agencies some 21 million acres. A large part of the
rangeland in Hawaii is in State ownership. These
lands are often leased to private ranchers for grazing
of domestic livestock.

Water Areas

Water areas of the Pacific Coast total 18.1 million
acres, about 3 percent of this section’s total area
(table 2.1). Alaska, with its many large inland lakes
and streams, has over 70 percent of the total water
area in the Pacific Coast States. Oregon, Washington,
and California have a number of large rivers includ-
ing the Columbia and Sacramento rivers and their
tributaries. These States also have many large lakes
— both artificial and natural — and many small lakes
and streams. The islands of Hawaii have only 19,000
acres of water area, less than 0.5 percent of their total
area. Washington, in addition to its inland waters,
has 1.5 million acres of coastal water area in the
Puget Sound and the Straits of Juan de Fuca.

The rivers and streams of Alaska and the lower
Pacific Coast States are vital to the important salmon
industry of the Pacific Coast, and provide habitat for
other fishes, waterfowl, and other wildlife. Many of
these rivers are also used for water sources and power
generation.

Other Uses and Resources

In addition to the forest and range land resources
described above for each of the major sections of the
country, four other resources deserve discussion here:
minerals, urban forests, wetlands, and air. All are
relevant to an assessment of forest and range lands.

Minerals

Mining of most minerals in the United States takes
place on forest and range lands. In part, this is
because forest and range lands are the most extensive
category of lands in the country, but these lands also
happen to coincide with major areas of mineraliza-
tion. For example, the coal mines of Appalachia, the
iron and copper mines of the Lake States, and the
lead mines of Missouri all fall in heavily forested
areas. Most of the oil and natural gas in Texas,
Wyoming, and New Mexico, the coal in Montana
and Wyoming, and the oil shale in Colorado under-
lies major rangeland zones.

Although minerals are not renewable products of
forest and range lands, they are very important re-
sources; their production has major effects on surface
resources and is affected by the production and use of
those resources. The greatest impacts occur from sur-
face mining, but the surface effect of underground

49

Over half of the Nation’s reserves of coal and nuclear materials,
nearly all the oil shale deposits, and many of the prime petroleum
prospecting sites are located on Federal forest and range lands in the
western United States.

mining (facilities, waste dumps, land subsidence, and
road or rail access) can also be substantial. Where
reclamation does not take place, the effects of mining
can be long lasting.

The list of minerals that occur beneath forest and
range lands in the United States is very long. In terms
of their impact on surface uses, three categories of
minerals should be recognized: fuels (oil and gas,
coal, uranium, and geothermal resources); metals
(iron, aluminum, -copper and lead); and non-metals
(barite, phosphate, potash, sand, gravel, clay, rock
and gypsum).

Location — Of present and prospective commercial
mineral sources of fuel — coal, shale, crude oil, natu-
ral gas, uranium, and geothermal — coal is the most
abundant and widespread. Coal underlies about 13
percent of the Nation and is found in 37 States. Since
much of it can be mined only by surface methods,
coal mining has the potential for serious impacts on
other forest and range resources. On the other hand,
oil, natural gas, and geothermal resources are asso-
ciated with relatively low-level impacts on other re-
sources. Oil shale mining could become important in
terms of effects on renewable resources; however, at
present, problems in extraction have limited its use.

50

National Forest System lands and Bureau of Land
Management lands contain many of the Nation’s
energy-related minerals. These include about 50 per-
cent of the coal reserves, 60 percent of the nuclear
minerals, nearly all of the oil shale deposits, and large
quantities of materials such as vermiculite and perlite,
important in the manufacture of insulating materials
used in the conservation of energy (fig. 2.4).

Most metallic minerals occur in localized areas,
primarily in the western United States. Many of these
metallic minerals underlie lands managed by the
Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management
(fig. 2.5). Probably half of the Nation’s copper, lead,
zinc, nickel, and molybdenum are contained in these
lands, concentrated mostly in the Northern Rocky
Mountain and Pacific regions. The lead belt in Mis-
souri, which ranks first nationally in lead production,
falls largely on National Forest lands. Only copper,
aluminum, iron, and titanium are mined mostly by
surface methods, although such other significant
metals as uranium and thorium are mined in a variety
of ways depending on local situations.

Nonmetallic minerals also generally occur in local-
ized areas, except for construction materials such as
sand, gravel, clay, rock, and gypsum. There are vast
phosphate deposits in the Rocky Mountain region,
and large phosphate and potash deposits in the
South.

Construction materials are found both on Federal
and non-Federal lands, but only a small proportion is
produced on Federal lands. Usually these materials
can be obtained at lowest costs from areas close to
where they are needed. Unlike most metals and other
nonmetallics, the low unit-value construction mate-
rials are most often mined from open pits and quar-
ries. They account for a large portion of the surface
area disturbed by mining activities, but this portion is
widely dispersed for the most part.

Trends in production — The constant dollar value
of United States mineral production has grown from
$11 billion in 1950 to $33.1 billion in 1975, a threefold
increase (table 2.10).

Fuel minerals are by far the most important seg-
ment of United States mineral production in terms of
value, accounting for 78 percent of the total in 1975.
Nonmetals accounted for 14 percent of the total value
of production in 1975, and metals made up 8 percent.

United States production and demand for nearly
all minerals has been rising. These past trends are
likely to continue as shown by projections for some
major minerals in table 2.11. Primary production of
coal is projected to nearly triple by 2000, rising from
about 0.6 billion to 1.7 billion short tons.

Minable coal reserves are about equal east and

Figure 2.4

Geographic Distribution of Coal, Oil Shale, and Tar Sands With Respect to Federally-Owned Lands

Federal Lands
eA Forest Service Lands

eo Bureau of Land Management Lands

eal Other Federal Lands

Q Coal, Oil Shale, and Tar Sands

west of the 100th meridian. But 44 percent of the
western coal can be mined by stripping methods,
while only about 19 percent of the eastern coal is
strippable. Strippable western coalbeds are typically
thick and low in sulfur, making them attractive for
mining and for burning where sulfur oxide emissions
must be kept low. Eastern coal beds are generally thin
and high in sulfur, making them more difficult to
mine and use than western coals. Generally, eastern
coals are privately owned, whereas the Federal
Government owns 60 percent of western coal re-
sources. These facts suggest that, with good transpor-
tation facilities and favorable freight rates, Federal
coal under western forest and range lands will supply
much of the projected demands.

Iron production in 1985 is estimated at 129 million
short tons and in 2000 at 159 million short tons.
These figures represent production rates 40 percent
and 73 percent above 1974. Forested private and

State lands in Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin
will likely supply the bulk of expected future produc-
tion. Molybdenum production is also expected to rise
sharply in response to domestic and foreign demand.
Forest and range lands in Colorado, Arizona, and
New Mexico are expected to supply most of the pro-
jected production.

Production of nonmetals such as phosphate rock,
sand and gravel, and stone is expected to roughly
double by 2000. Most of the increase in phosphate
rock production is expected to come from Federal
forest and range lands in Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and
Montana. Most production of the other nonmetals is
expected to come from private forest and range lands
and be much more widely distributed geographically.

It is generally acknowledged that Alaska has large
mineral deposits, although their magnitude can only
be speculated upon. The development of the petro-
leum fields on the north slope of the Brooks Range is

51

Figure 2.5

Geographic Distribution of Metallic Minerals With Respect to Federally-Owned Lands

Federal Lands

eae Forest Service Lands

gs Bureau of Land Management Lands
ee Other Federal Lands
ye Metallic Minerals

underway, and the oil pipeline completed between
Prudhoe Bay and Valdez supplies an estimated 10
percent of the domestic consumption of the United
States. The associated gas pipeline is still in the plan-
ning stage but, once completed, these fields are
expected to supply from 4 to 7 percent of U.S. natural
gas consumption by 1990. Additional petroleum
fields with commercial potential are believed to exist
in other parts of Alaska including the Outer Conti-
nental Shelf, but information is lacking as to the size
of this resource.

As with most resources in undeveloped regions,
there is a strong distinction between physical exist-
ence and a viable market. Mineral development is
hampered by the uncertainty regarding the quantita-
tive and qualitative aspects of mineral deposits, the
inaccessibility of most areas, and the high cost of
extraction. Minerals including coal, iron, copper and
zinc are known to exist in large quantities, but it is

52

uncertain if they can be competitively developed at
this time. Plans are underway to develop the second
largest molybdenum deposit known to exist in the
world at Quartz Hill in southeast Alaska.

In summation, it seems clear that the Nation is
faced with the prospect of a substantial expansion of
mining activity. Mining will have impacts on forest
and range lands, and uses of forest and range lands
will also affect mining activity.

Impacts of mining on forest and range lands — The
character of a mineral and its occurrence (liquid, gas,
vein, bedded deposit, disseminated body), and the
depth at which it occurs determine the method of
extraction. Oil and gas are usually produced from
wells, although development of methods to get oil
from oil shale and gas from coal may lead to mining
to obtain these minerals. Coal and other bedded de-
posits are removed by strip mining where they occur
close to the surface and by underground mining else-

where. Phosphate, potash, uranium, and some metals
(copper and iron, for example) are often mined in
large pits. Many of the metals are typically in ore
bodies that are best mined by underground methods.
Sand and gravel, dimension stone, clays, and rock for
aggregate are usually quarried or mined in open pits.

Impacts of mining on forest and range lands vary
greatly depending upon the mineral extraction
method. Clearance of vegetation usually amounts to
an acre or two per well, less than 100 acres per under-
ground mine, but frequently hundreds or even thou-
sands of acres per surface mine. However, this is
necessary to obtain access to the minerals and to pro-
tect against fire. In some areas, construction of access
roads and other ancillary facilities such as power lines
may have greater impacts than the mining itself.
Similarly, prospecting for minerals, especially for
uranium and other metals, may have greater impacts
on the surface than actual mining.

Removal of vegetation obviously affects timber
and forage production. It also results in a change of
wildlife habitat, often with substantial effects on
associated wildlife populations. Impacts on fish habi-
tat can be drastic, too, but it is usually possible to
avoid vegetation clearance adjacent to streams and
bodies of water. Where this is not possible, mitigation
measures are necessary.

Effects of mineral development on air quality and
on water yield and quality also vary greatly depend-
ing upon the extraction method. Dust, combustion,

Prospecting and access to mining sites may have greater surface
impacts than actual mining.

engine emission, erosion, sedimentation, water pollu-
tion, interruption of hydrologic regimes, and reduc-
tions in water yield are associated with many mineral
operations. These effects tend to be extensive in the
case of surface mines and more local with respect to
underground mines. Usually, little or no impact is
experienced from wells if preventive measures are
taken. Preventive and mitigating measures, designed
to insure compliance with applicable laws, regula-
tions, and standards, can minimize impacts on air
and water resources but cannot eliminate them.
Except for the large excavations in bedrock, reclama-
tion is normally required once the mineral operations
are completed.

Up to July 1, 1977, it is estimated that more than
5.7 million acres of the United States had been uti-
lized for mining.!2 While this is a large area, it can be
put in perspective by noting that mining has dis-
turbed only about 0.25 percent of the land in the
United States and that about 40 percent of this has
been reclaimed. The data in table 2.12, adapted from
a Bureau of Mines publication, shows the relation-
ships between land utilized by mining and land that
has been reclaimed during the period 1930-71.!3

Table 2.13, prepared by the Bureau of Mines,
shows cumulative mining areas utilized and re-
claimed, by section, region, and State, for the period
1930-71.

Energy resource development, particularly for coal
and possibly oil shale, and the mining of copper,
sand, gravel, and phosphate rock are likely to have
the greatest future impacts on forest and range lands.
Over the next few decades, the area disturbed may
increase and this disturbance could have important
local impacts. However, the area involved should
continue to be small relative to the 1.6 billion acres
classified as forest and range land. Moreoever,
requirements for surface reclamation are becoming
more stringent. The Surface Mining Control and
Reclamation Act of 1977 (P.L. 95-87), which requires
State regulation of surface mining for coal, will affect
reclamation on forest and range lands throughout the
country. Many States, on their own, have been adopt-
ing strict reclamation requirements for coal and other
minerals. Woody plant cover is important in stabili-
zation and rehabilitation of disturbed sites for ero-
sion control, amenity values, and timber production.
Better methods of revegetating disturbed lands with
woody plants are needed for expanded rehabilitation.
In addition, integrated pest management systems will
be needed to meet quality standards set for protection

'2 Soil Conservation Service, unpublished estimate, Feb. 1978.

13 Bureau of Mines, Land utilization and reclamation in the min-
ing industry, 1930-71. I. C. 8642, 54 p. 1974.

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Table 2.11 —///ustrative primary mineral demand-production comparisons in the United States by
class of mineral, 1974, with projections to 1985 and 2000

(Thousand short tons)

1974

Class of mineral

Fuels:
Coal:
Anthracite 5,000 7,000
Bituminous and lignite 553,000 603,000

Uranium (nuclear) 8 10

Metals:
Copper 1,953 1,597
Iron content 144,480 91,840
Nonmetals:
Clays 59,000 61,000
Phosphate rock 34,720 45,686
Sand and gravel 978,000 978,000
Stone, crushed 1,041,000 1,042,000

Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary
demand production demand production demand

2000

Primary
production

5,000 6,000 5,000 6,000
918,000 993,000 1,555,000 1,655,000
41 36 70 60

2,700 2,500 4,200 3,800
170,240 128,800 204,960 159,040
101,000 100,000 181,000 190,000
45,000 80,000 69,000 85,000
1,390,000 1,390,000 2,090,000 2,090,000
1,550,000 1,550,000 2,500,000 .2,500,000

Source: Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Mineral trends and forecasts, 1976.

Table 2.12 —Area utilized for mining and area
reclaimed in the United States by class of
mineral, 1930-1971

(Thousand acres)

1930-1971

Class of mineral

Area
reclaimed

Area
utilized

Fossil fuels:
Bituminous
Coal
Other

Total

Metals:
Copper
Iron ore
Uranium
Other

Total

Nonmetals:
Clays
Phosphate rock
Sand and gravel
Stone
Other

Total
Total

Note: Columns may not add to totals because of rounding

Source: Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Information circular
8642 and unpublished data

of watersheds. Reclamation of disturbed land should
minimize the impacts of mining on the output of prod-
ucts such as forage and timber.

56

Impacts of forest and range land uses on mining —
While mining has affected uses of forest and range
land, the reverse is also true. Use of forest and range
lands for wilderness, parks, and other special uses has
had significant effects on mineral development.
Particular and growing concern has been expressed
about restrictions placed on the availability of
Federal lands for mineral exploration and develop-
ment. In recent years, the area of such land open to
these activities has dropped substantially. As a result,
according to a 1977 report prepared by the Depart-
ment of the Interior, mineral exploration and develop-
ment are prohibited, severely restricted, or moder-
ately restricted on two-thirds of all Federal lands.!4
The restrictions comprise three major categories:

1. Classification for disposal pursuant to spe-
cific Acts of Congress.

2. Withdrawal specifically to protect against
impacts associated with mineral exploration
and development.

3. Reservation (dedication) for a particular
public purpose or use.

Much of the recent reduction has been in Alaska.
As lands are finally classified and reserved pursuant
to the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act, some
Alaska lands presently unavailable will be opened for
mineral development. But, elsewhere, future wilder-
ness designations seem likely to result in even further
reductions in land available for mineral development.

14U.S. Department of the Interior, Final report of the task force
on the availability of Federally-owned lands, 43 p. 1977.

Table 2.13 — Area’ utilized for mining and area reclaimed in the United States by class of mineral,
section, region, and State, 1930-1971
(Thousand acres)

and State Area Area Area Area Area Area Area
utilized | reclaimed | utilized utilized reclaimed | utilized | reclaimed
North:
Northeast:
Connecticut 3.4
Delaware 4
Maine 3.1
Maryland 5.8
Massachusetts 5.6
New Hampshire 1.6
New Jersey 7.1
New York 20.6
Pennsylvania 11.2
Rhode Island 5
Vermont 1.0
West Virginia 3.8
Total 64.1
North Central:
Illinois 17.9
Indiana 12.0
lowa 12.0
Michigan 22.9
Minnesota 9.6
Missouri 11.7
Ohio 24.2
Wisconsin 12.2
Total 122.5
Total, North 186.6
South:
Southeast:
Florida 15.1
Georgia 9.4
North Carolina 9.5
South Carolina 4.1

Virginia 2.3 4 9.5
Total 19.1 202.3 47.6

South Central:

Alabama 6.4
Arkansas 6.0
Kentucky 6.4
Louisiana 5.2
Mississippi 3.3
Oklahoma 5.3
Tennessee 10.9
Texas 19.6

Se a

See footnote at end of table.

57

Table 2.13 — Area’ utilized for mining and area reclaimed in the United States by class of mineral,
section, region, and State, 1930-1971 (continued)
(Thousand acres)

and State Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area
utilized reclaimed utilized reclaimed utilized reclaimed utilized reclaimed

Rocky Mountain and
Great Plains:
Rocky Mountain:

Arizona 4.2
Colorado 5.8
Idaho 5.2
Montana 5,
Nevada 2.5
New Mexico 3.0
Utah 3.9
Wyoming 3.8
Total, Rocky Mountain 34.1
Great Plains:
Kansas 5.3
Nebraska 3.7
North Dakota 2.3
South Dakota 4.3
Total, Great Plains 15.6
Total, Rocky Mountain
and Great Plains: 49.7
Pacific Coast:
Pacific Northwest:
Alaska 3.0
Oregon ehh
Washington 9.0
Total 19.7
Pacific Southwest:
California 38.5
Hawaii 1.2
Total 39.7
Total, Pacific Coast : : : : 59.3
Total, United States 3,654.3 | 1,463.2 | 1.571.6 | 1,031.6 523.4 1,559.3 406.3
‘Includes surface mine excavation area used for disposal of surface mine sLess than 50,000 acres.
waste, surface area subsided or disturbed as a result of underground workings, Note: Columns may not add to totals because of rounding
surface area used for disposal of underground waste, and surface area used for Source: Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines /nformation Circular 8642 and
disposal of mill or processing waste. unpublished data.

?Excludes oil and gas operations

58

Urban Forests

Although the great bulk of the Nation’s forest and
range lands is in rural areas, there are lands in the
urbanized parts of the country with many of the same
characteristics as rural forest and range lands and
used for many of the same purposes. They contribute
to soil and water conservation, provide habitat for
wildlife and sites for many kinds of outdoor recrea-
tion, and upgrade the environment and the quality of
life in urban environments.

These lands, frequently called urban forests, in-
clude greenbelts, buffer strips, roadside forests,
community parks, and wooded residential and indus-
trial zones. There is no readily available information
that defines the extent and location of urban forests
in the United States. Interest in such areas and their
management, however, has grown to the point where
urban forestry is now recognized as an area of study
in some universities and in programs of Federal and
State agencies. Federal commitment and concern for
urban forestry issues is evident in the urban forestry
research effort of the Pinchot Institute for Environ-
mental Forestry Research at the Northeastern Forest
Experiment Station and in the Human and Com-
munity Development Element of the Forest Service
Program.!5 !6

Urban forests and open space can be looked to asa
resource in meeting some of the outdoor recreation,
wildlife, and environmental needs of the future. They
are located close to population centers and can be
especially important in meeting the needs of those
who are unable, for one reason for another, to use
more distant forest and range lands.

Wetlands

As a category of land that is part of the Nation’s
forest and range land base, wetlands deserve special
attention because of their high biological productivity
and their importance as habitat for wildlife and fish
at critical times in their life cycles. Wetlands include
swamps, marshes, bogs, sloughs, potholes, wet mea-
dows, river overflows, mud flats, and natural ponds
and support vegetation that requires saturated soils
for at least part of the year.!7

'S Forest Service. The Pinchot Institute system for environmen-
tal forestry studies. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE 2, Northeast. For. Exp.
Sta., Upper Darby, Pa., 60 p. 1973.

'6Riddle, J. R.,G. H. Moeller and W. H. Smith. Breaking new
ground in urban America. American Forests, 82(11):26-30, 66.
1976.

'7 Executive Order 11990, Protection of Wetlands, May 24, 1977,
Federal Register, 42(101), Wednesday, May 25, 1977.

Most of these wetland areas are also classed as
forest or range lands. Salt marshes along the Atlantic
Coast; spruce bogs in Maine, the Lake States, and
Alaska; and prairie potholes in the Great Plains are
all wetland components of forest or range lands. The
particular value of wetlands derives from their impor-
tance as breeding areas for wildlife and fish; as
sources of water for wildlife and livestock; and, de-
spite their generally high productivity, as environ-
mentally sensitive areas. Disruption of the water
regime of wetlands can affect water tables and hydro-
logic conditions in surrounding areas. In addition,
disturbance of soil and vegetation in wetlands can
lead to stream sedimentation and loss of fragile eco-
systems that are important for fish breeding.

Several national wetlands inventories have been
conducted beginning with an inventory by the U.S.
Department of Agriculture in 1906. These inventories
have shown conclusively that wetland acreages are
declining. The Soil Conservation Service has esti-
mated that there were once 127 million acres of
wetlands in the United States.!8 This had declined to
82 million acres by 1953.!9 Continued drainage, flood
control, and related activities since that time have
undoubtedly reduced the wetland area even more.

Concern over loss of wetlands has led a number of
States to pass wetlands protection laws. These laws
generally prohibit or restrict filling and other actions
in wetlands that are detrimental to waterflows and to
the ability of the wetlands to sustain wildlife and fish
populations. Their overall impact in reducing the loss
of wetlands in the face of major drainage programs
and reservoir construction has been limited, however.
Protection of remaining wetlands is an important
land management objective for both private and pub-
lic lands.

The normal uses of forest and range lands in
wetlands areas, including timber harvesting and graz-
ing of domestic livestock, are compatible with
wetlands protection objectives as long as reasonable
care is exercised. The wet grassland ecosystem, most
of which occurs in wetlands, is the most productive
range ecosystem. Some forested wetlands, such as
bottomlands in the Mississippi Delta and along the
Southeast Atlantic Coast, are highly productive for
valuable hardwood timber species. Restricting log-
ging and grazing during certain times of the year and
minimizing construction of logging roads or other
soil-moving activities will minimize the impacts of
logging and grazing on these lands.

'8Shaw, S. P., and C. G. Fredine. Wetlands of the United States,
U.S. Department of Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service Circ. 39.
1971.

'7 Wooten, H. H. Major uses of land in the United States. U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Tech. Bull. 1082. 1953.

59

Air pollution, such as that evident here, can damage forests and rangelands up to 70 miles from the source.

Air

Air is a resource that significantly affects and is
affected by the Nation’s forest and range lands.

Impacts of air on forest and range lands — Air is
made up of many constituents that originate from
natural and unnatural sources. These constituents
eventually are deposited on the soil, vegetation, and
waters of the earth. Constituents causing undesirable
effects on living organisms or materials are called pol-
lutants. Air pollution is most common in industrial-
ized population centers and the forest and range
lands nearest these centers are most likely to be dam-

60

aged. Pollution from some urban and industrial sites
has caused reductions in growth, increased suscepti-
bility to insect attack, and death to some vegetation
more than 70 miles distant.

Most of the Nation’s forest and range lands are in
areas of low population densities and have relatively
good air quality. Even so, air pollutants, transported
over long distances from urban and industrial cen-
ters, have direct adverse effects. Of major national
and international importance is acid precipitation,
caused by oxidation in the atmosphere of sulphur and
nitrogen oxides. Acid precipitation is now causing
adverse impacts on sensitive aquatic life, soils, and
vegetation, particularly in the northeastern United

States. Increased energy production from fossil fuels
has the potential for increasing these impacts and
extending them to other areas of the country. A 10-
year accelerated study of this problem has been
recently proposed by the President.

Air pollution affects scenic values of some forest
and range lands. Thirty million acres of Federally
owned land in 37 States has been designated by Con-
gress for special protection of visibility and other air
quality-related values. Protecting these lands will
have indirect impacts because major emitting facili-
ties will not be permitted to locate in any area where
adverse effects may result on these Federal lands.

Impacts of forest and range lands on air — Natural
emissions from forest and range lands vegetation con-
tributes to the composition of the air resource. Plants
exchange compounds with the air. For example, an
elm tree of medium size will give off 15,000 pounds of
water on a clear, dry, hot day. Millions of tons of
hydrocarbons are emitted into the air daily from
decomposing plant materials and living plants. Wild-
fires emit thousands of tons of particulates and other
matter into the air each year, reducing visibility in
broad areas of the Nation.

Other emission sources from forest and range lands
are associated with production of goods and services.
Fire is used intentionally on large areas under certain
environmental conditions to manage vegetation for
wildlife habitat, insect and disease control, wildfire
prevention, timber production, and other objectives.
Emissions from these fires are significant, but can be
managed to minimize adverse effects. Roads and
their attendant traffic and off-road vehicles and
equipment used for logging, mining, and recreation
produce emissions, but to a lesser extent than fire. In
the future as the intensity of use of forest and range
lands grows, greater efforts may be necessary to con-
trol undesirable emissions.

Summary

The Nation’s forest and range lands, in their great
variety, support a broad array of uses that are impor-
tant to the economy and to general social well-being
of the Nation. As the population grows, and incomes
and tastes change, the demands for these resources
will also grow and change. As long as the inherent
productivity of these lands is protected and main-
tained, they can be managed to provide increased
amounts of practically all resources and uses.

Almost every one of the 1.6 billion acres of forest
and range lands now provides two or more major
outputs — outdoor recreation range for domestic
livestock, timber, water, wilderness, and wildlife and
fish. On much of the land multiple-use takes place
with no apparent conflict among resource uses; on
many other areas, conflicts among uses are mini-
mized through careful management.

As demands for the resources on these lands
increase, however, the intensity of management and
regulation of use must also increase to cope with the
inevitable intensification of conflicts among alterna-
tive uses. In some instances, one important use will
have to give way to another. The purpose of this
report is to provide information to facilitate the effi-
cient allocation of the Nation’s forest, range, and
related water resources.

The following chapters will provide information on
the likely trends in the demands for each of the major
uses of forest and range lands and will assess the
capability of these lands to satisfy expected demands.
Although major uses are discussed separately, it must
be borne in mind that they take place on the ground
in a myriad of overlapping combinations. No re-
source or use can be examined in isolation and with-
out consideration of other resources and uses on the
same limited areas. Every effort has been made to
keep this salient feature of the use of forest and range
lands in view throughout this report. The great chal-
lenge facing the owners and managers of private and
public forest and range lands is the integrated man-
agement of all of these resources.

61

Chapter 3. — Outdoor Recreation and Wilderness

This chapter presents information on: (1) Current
economic and social demands for outdoor recreation
and wilderness and projected participation trends to
2030; (2) the current supply of outdoor recreation and
wilderness opportunities; (3) a comparison of pro-
jected demands and supplies and the socioeconomic
implications of those comparisons; and (4) oppor-
tunities for increasing and enhancing the outdoor
recreational and wilderness experiences obtainable
on forest and range lands.

For the purposes of this assessment, outdoor
recreation opportunities are defined as those natural
and cultural resources on forest and range lands that
are used by people during their leisure time to enjoy
or obtain a change of pace, a change of social environ-
ment, and other physical or psychic satisfactions.
These resources involve both the natural environ-
ments and manmade facilities, including the visual
features of an area that affect the esthetic quality of a
visitor’s recreational experience.

The demand and supply of outdoor recreation re-
sources are evaluated in terms of recreational
activities.

These activities are grouped into three classes to
differentiate among important management oppor-
tunities and resource characteristics:

Land activities — The large forest and range land
base provides opportunities for people to enjoy their
recreational pursuits in dispersed or relatively unde-
veloped settings. Many of the activities enjoyed on
these lands center around travel methods, including
hiking, horseback riding, automobile driving, and
off-road vehicle travel. While these activities are fre-
quently pursued for their own sakes, they also make
other recreation opportunities possible, including
both primitive and roadside camping, sightseeing,
fishing, hunting, and nature study.

In addition, development of forest and range lands
has provided people with an expanded range of
recreation opportunities. On private lands, recrea-
tional home development enables an_ increasing
number of people to enjoy the scenic and recreational
values of forest and range lands. On public lands,
recreational use is often concentrated around travel
routes and special scenic or recreational features; fre-
quently service facilities are constructed in these areas
to enhance the comfort, convenience, and safety of
the visiting public.

Water activities — Water is a prime attraction for
recreational activities. People use rivers, lakes, and
other wetlands for a wide variety of recreational
activities. Many are directly water-based such as
swimming, fishing, boating, and kayaking. Others,
such as camping, hiking, driving for pleasure, pic-

nicking, and relaxing are often pursued with water as
an important backdrop.

Snow and ice activities — The occurrence of snow
and ice on forest and range lands broadens the range
of recreational opportunities. They include such
activities as downhill skiing, snowmobiling, cross-
country skiing, and snow play. Forested areas, roads,
and cleared sites that may not be particularly
attractive for recreation during the summer often
assume added recreational value with the presence of
snow and ice. Logging roads covered with snow, for
instance, are highly suitable for both snowmobiles
and cross-country ski trails.

Outdoor Recreation

No national surveys have been conducted of out-
door recreation participation or expenditures specifi-
cally on the Nation’s forest and range lands.
However, significant insights can be gained from the
1977 National Outdoor Recreation Survey conducted
by Heritage, Conservation and Recreation Service.!
The survey consisted of personal interviews with
members of 4,029 randomly selected households
distributed throughout the contiguous United States.
The survey focused on what people said they did, the
frequency of their participation, and other factors
influencing their outdoor recreation activity.

Consistent with the findings from previous national
recreation surveys, the 1977 National Outdoor Rec-
reation Survey reported that the activities people said
they participated in most were picnicking, sight-
seeing, swimming, and driving for pleasure (table
3.1). For many of the activities, the majority of the
respondents said they participated more than four
times in 1977, while smaller percentages had just
begun to participate or indicated a desire to do so. A
few of these activities that had lower participation
rates tended to be the ones which people said they
were most interested in trying. These pursuits
included snow skiing, water skiing, and horseback
riding.

In terms of regional participation, individuals from
the Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Great Plains
States were more likely to participate in outdoor
recreation activities. In particular, more westerners
participated in such activities as camping, backpack-
ing, and skiing than the residents of other regions of
the country. Individuals in the North were more fre-
quent participants than westerners in ice skating,
snowmobiling, and sledding, as well as swimming and
canoeing; southerners, on the other hand, partici-
pated as much or more than recreationists in western

'U.S. Department of the Interior, Heritage, Conservation and

Recreation Service. 1977 National Outdoor Recreation Survey. (In
process).

63

' SS

Picknicking, swimming, and sledding are the most popular
land-based, water-based, and snow and ice recreation activities, respectively.

64

States in such pursuits as water skiing, driving for
pleasure, hunting, and fishing.

The National Outdoor Recreation Survey also
revealed that most participants come from metropoli-
tan areas and high- or middle-income groups. Also, a
larger share of the participants was in the 18-44 age
group than in any other group.

Trends in Participation
in Outdoor Recreation

Participation in most types of outdoor recreation
has been growing rapidly based on national participa-
tion surveys, industry reports, and managing agency
records. For example, participation in outdoor recrea-
tion on National Forests has increased by 37 percent
over the last decade. Many factors are responsible,
but they all relate to increased growth in population,
higher incomes, increased mobility, more leisure
time, improved technology, better access to recrea-
tional areas, and better information for recreationists
about where to go and what to do in the out-of-doors.

The most rapid increases in outdoor recreational
participation have been in snow and ice activities.

New and improved facilities, equipment, and light-
weight winter clothing, and a rediscovery of the
enjoyment that cold weather activities can provide
have resulted in year-round participation in regions
where outdoor recreation was once largely limited to
the summer season.

One significant indicator of the expanding interest
in snow and ice activities is increasing participation in
cross-country skiing. Public land managers and
industry spokesmen agree that the number of these
skiers has at least tripled over the last few years. Sales
of cross-country skis also confirm these estimates. In
contrast to a decade ago, when only 12,000 cross-
country skis were imported annually and none were
manufactured in the United States, imports now
amount to 50,000 skis each year, and one United
States company alone produces 250,000 skis annually.

Participation in water activities has likewise in-
creased substantially in all regions of the country in
recent years.* Indicators of the growing use of water-
ways for recreation include the Boating Industry

2U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard.

Recreational Boating in the Continental United States in 1973 and
1976; The nationwide boating survey. Washington, D.C. 1978.

Table 3.1 — Percent of households participating in outdoor recreation in the United States by type
of activity, 1977
(Percent)

Activity group and
type of activity

Participating
at least once

Land:

Camping (developed)
Camping (dispersed)
Driving off-road vehicles
Hiking

Horseback riding

Nature study/photography
Picnicking

Pleasure driving
Sightseeing

Water:

Canoeing

Sailing

Other boating
Swimming outdoors
Water skiing

Snow and ice:

Cross-country skiing
Downhill skiing

Ice skating
Sledding
Snowmobiling

Participating more
more than four times

Wanting to
participate
in future

Having just
started

| 42a MAwD

o-rmWPr

O-nwoofh

Source: U.S. Department of Interior, Heritage, Conservation, and Recreation Service. 1977 National outdoor recreation plan. (In process).

65

Magazine’s? estimates that nearly 0.6 million new
boats were purchased in 1977. Estimates of canoe
sales (excluding kayaks), nationwide, rose from
35,000 in 1966, to 82,000 in 1977. Furthermore, in-
creasing memberships in river-related organizations,
sponsored river events, and river-oriented magazine
circulation all point to growing water-based recrea-
tional activity. Memberships in the American Canoe
Association climbed from 1,000 in 1965, to over 5,000
by 1976. The number of Sierra Club river outings has
more than doubled since 1969. Circulation of Canoe
Magazine, which began in 1973 with 5,000 subscrib-
ers, had increased to over 30,000 in 1977.

Similarly participation increases have been re-
ported for both developed and dispersed land activi-
ties. For instance, more than 39 million recreation
visitor days were spent in National Forest camp-
grounds in 1977, representing a 29 percent increase
over the last decade. Similar trends have been
reported by Kampgrounds of America and Nielsen in
their national participation surveys.4 A specific indi-
cator of the expanding interest and participation in
dispersed land recreation is the growth of the use of
National Forest trails for hiking, which grew from 5.8
million recreation visitor days in 1975, to 6.4 million
in 1977. The Appalachian National Scenic Trail, in
particular, experienced a 35 percent increase in
recreation use between 1974 and 1976.

As participation has grown rapidly, so have
expenditures for outdoor recreation. Estimates of
total expenditures for the leisure and recreation
market vary depending on the breadth of the cate-
gories of goods and services included. The Depart-
ment of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis
reports a figure for direct recreation expenditures of
almost $93.2 billion in 1977, or 7.0 percent of total
personal consumption expenditures.> These expendi-
tures, which do not include significant indirect
expenditures associated with recreational participa-
tion, such as travel costs and licenses, represent an
increase of nearly $48 billion, or 110 percent since
1970.

Other estimates of direct recreational expenditures
are even higher. According to an industry analyst
with the Department of Commerce’s Office of Con-
sumer Goods and Services, $160 billion was spent in
1977 on recreational equipment, sporting goods,

3 Personal communication (P. Glauckman, Boating Industry
Magazine staff, Aug. 1979).

4 Kampgrounds of America. 1976 camper survey. Billings, Mont.
1976; and A. C. Nielsen Company. The boom in leisure — Where.
U.S. News and World Report, May 23, 1977.

5U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Survey of current business, July, 1978. Washington, D.C. 64 p.
1978.

66

admissions and dues, and $60.2 billion on vacations
and trips in the United States.°’ The $160.2 billion
represents in increase of 9.2 percent over the office’s
1976 figure of $146.5 billion and a 125 percent
increase over the 1967 spending levels.

Outdoor Recreation Demand

Traditionally, outdoor recreation has been pre-
dominantly a public good, in that market values have
been largely nonexistent for many outputs of outdoor
recreation. The last few decades, however, have seen
greater involvement of the private sector in providing
outdoor recreational activities. Increasingly, senti-
ment in the public sector has favored leaving the
development of more capital-intensive, convenience-
oriented facilities to the private sector. Growing
emphasis on the complementary nature of public and
private supplies of outdoor recreation has contrib-
uted to the expansion of the private sector’s role in
meeting recreation demand.

The principal outdoor recreational activities now
commonly provided through the private sector are
those requiring highly developed areas such as
marinas, campgrounds, and skiing facilities (both
downhill and cross-country). Private enterprise also
makes a significant contribution to the supply of
recreational facilities and services on public lands
through concessionaire and outfitter operations.
Goods and services provided by such enterprises
include food and lodging and various types of such
guided trips as horseback riding, fishing, and
river-rafting.

Despite the existence of markets for some outdoor
recreation services, outdoor recreation on forest and
range lands remains predominantly a nonmarket
good. To provide long term estimates, outdoor
recreation “demand” is assessed in this chapter in
terms of projected participation levels. The projec-
tions presented are the expected number of partici-
pants in various activities as an index of the future
quantities demanded.’

6 Owne, Elizabeth. The magnitude and general characteristics of
the recreation industry. Speech presented at the Oklahoma Recrea-
tion and Tourism Conference. Oklahoma City, Okla. Feb. 22,
1978.

7 Browth, Irwin and Associates. Sporting goods markets in 1979.
National Sporting Goods Association, Chicago, Ill. 1979.

8 Because of the lack of reliable national trend data on participa-
tion in most outdoor recreation activities, estimates were devel-
oped using a cross-sectional regression analysis of the 1977 Out-
door Recreation Survey. Equations were developed which relate a
set of explanatory variables to the probability that the average
American will participate in a given activity and these equations
were used to project participation through time with prices and
quantities supplied determined external to the model. For details
of procedures used, see John G. Hof. “Projection and evaluation of
outdoor recreation use of forest lands.” Colorado State University,
PhD. Thesis. 209 p. 1979.

Determinants of demand for outdoor recreation —
Growth in population and income of the magnitudes
assumed in the assessment will obviously have an
upward influence on the future participation in out-
door recreation activities. In addition, a number of
other factors will likely influence future participation
levels, particularly in such activities as downhill ski-
ing, sightseeing, and camping. Based on information
for the Office of Consumer Goods and Service Indus-
tries, Americans are increasingly enjoying their afflu-
ence in the form of more leisure.? Individual workers
received an average of 16 days vacation annually, the
highest average in history. Leisure also increased for
all workers measured in the period 1965-1975, regard-
less of whether the individual was male or female,
married or single.!° For instance, working married
men increased their leisure time from 33.7 to 36.1
hours each week. Similarly, employed married
women increased their weekly leisure from 26.7 hours
in 1965, to 31.7 hours in 1975.

Increasing participation by women in outdoor rec-
reational activities should also continue to affect total
outdoor recreational participation. As early as a
decade ago, sports and outdoor recreational activi-
ties, especially the active ones, were almost entirely
male-oriented. However, the interest of women in
exercise and outdoor activities is growing rapidly. In
the 1971-1975 period, the National Federation of
State High School Associations found dramatic
increases in the numbers of women participating in
golf, skiing, and tennis competitions.'! Increasing
numbers of women are single, lack family obliga-
tions, and have incomes. Such factors have contrib-
uted to more than doubling participation by women
since 1970 in such activities as cross-country skiing,
fishing, hunting, and scuba diving. Nonetheless, par-
ticipations rates for women in outdoor recreational
activities can still increase substantially before they
equal rates for men.

Some factors, however, are expected to reduce the
rate of growth in participation. One influence
expected to dampen future participation, especially
for strenuous activities such as backpacking, water
skiing, and primitive camping, is the general aging of
the population. America’s population is growing sig-
nificantly older. Whereas, the median age was 29.4 in
1977, in 1990 it is projected to be 32.8, and by 2030, it

° Owen, E. The growth of leisure markets and its impact on the
U.S. economy. The Office of Consumer Goods and Services Indus-
tries, U.S. Department of Commerce. 1978. (In process).

'0Robinson, J. Change in Americans’ use of time: 1965-1975, A
Progress Report, Communication Research Center, Cleveland
State University. 1977.

1A. C. Nielsen Survey, National Tennis Foundation. Comes the
revolution. Time. Jul. 26, 1978.

is expected to reach 39.9. Since older individuals tend
to participate less in strenuous activities and to be
more selective in the choice of activities in general,
participation rates are expected to fall with age.

Perhaps a major factor contributing to the phe-
nomenon, beyond the normal aging process, has been
the physical inactivity of many Americans; 43 percent
of all American adults, according to a recent poll,
never exercise.!2 However, this situation may be
changing. It is estimated that over 6 million Ameri-
cans, including the President, have started running or
jogging in the 3-year period from 1975-1978, and
organized exercise programs appear to be growing in
popularity.

Another factor which may dampen outdoor recrea-
tional participation is rising energy costs and the pos-
sibility of future increases in participation fees — on
both public and private recreational areas. Inexpen-
sive or free recreation opportunities have been a key
factor in the growth in outdoor recreation participa-
tion. Although recreation participation has been rela-
tively insensitive to cost changes in the past,!3 future
increases in travel costs, caused by rising energy
prices and potential fee increases, may significantly
affect demands — especially where long-distance
travel is involved.

National projections of demand — Projected par-
ticipation levels based on the above considerations
and the assumed increases in population, economic
activity, and income used in this study are shown in
table 3.2. In general, the snow and ice activities show
the most pronounced increases in participation.
While there are some indications that the growth
rates of downhill skiing and snowmobiling have
slowed from the rates experienced in the 1960’s and
early 1970’s, participation in these and other snow
and ice activities is projected to increase 140 percent
by 2030. Downhill skiing and cross-country skiing
show some of the largest increases among all
activities.

Participation for water activities is also projected
to increase fairly rapidly, with sailing and canoeing
showing large growth. It is anticipated that water
activities, as a group, will increase 106 percent by
2030. Water activities attract a broad cross-section of
the population, although regional differences in par-
ticipation do exist for some activities. People living in
the North are more likely to participate in canoeing
and sailing, while those located in the South, Pacific

'2The Fitness Mania. U.S. News and World Report. Feb. 27,
1978.

'3U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Admin-
istration. Recreational travel impacts. Washington, D.C. 171 p.
1978.

67

Coast, and Rocky Mountain and Great Plains States
are more frequent participants in motor boating and
water skiing.

Projections for land activities also suggest that par-
ticipation will continue to increase by 61 percent
(table 3.2, fig. 3.1). However, except for developed
and dispersed camping, which are projected to in-
crease more than those for several water and snow and
ice activities, comparative increases in participation
in land activities tend to be modest. Nonetheless, the
feelings of independence and individuality, adventure,
and self-sufficiency, which many land activities can
provide, should ensure their continuing popularity.

The projections are sensitive in the long run to
changes in such variables as population levels, eco-
nomic activity, and income. For instance, under the
low-level assumptions made with respect to these
determinants, developed camping is projected to
increase only 81 percent by 2030; under the high level
assumptions, it is expected to increase 269 percent
(table 3.2). However, in the short run, the projections
are rather insensitive to assumed changes in popula-
tion and income. For example, if the rate of increase
in the gross national product in the 1977-90 years
were reduced by 1.0 percent, the medium projected
demand for outdoor recreation in 1990 would only be
reduced by about 2 percent.

Regional projections of demand — Projections of
participation in outdoor recreation vary widely from
region to region (table 3.3). The projections for land
activities indicate large increases in participation in
the South and Pacific Southwest, with more modest
increases in the Northeast and North Central regions.
For snow activities, most regions in the North and
West exhibit increases, especially the Pacific South-
west region. The increase in participation in water
activities, by comparison, is more even across the dif-
ferent regions.

Two key factors account for much of the variation
among regions. One important component is the
regional characteristics of the forest and range
resource. For instance, Rocky Mountain States have
terrain and climate for downhill skiing superior to
that in many other States. A second factor is the basic
assumption that the population will continue to
migrate to the sunbelt. This migration contributes to
comparative increases in participation for the Pacific
Southwest, southern Rocky Mountains, and south-
ern States. For example, the Phoenix-Tucson area in
Arizona and the Front Range area in Colorado,
which stretches from Fort Collins in the north to
Pueblo in the south, are expected to grow at rates
substantially above national levels.

68

Figure 3.1

Projections of Demand for
Outdoor Recreation

Demand Index (1977 Demand Level = 100)
100 200 300 400

Sailing |

Downhill (=~
Skiing |

Cross Country

Skiing |

Developed
Camping |}

Ice ff
Skating |

Canoeing

Sledding ||
Other |
Boating

Dispersed
Camping

Swimming fi Projected
ncrease by
Outdoors f 1990

=| Projected
~ Increase by
2030

Snowmobiling

Water

Skiing
Horseback f

Riding I]
Picnicking}} |

Sightseeing ||

Hiking

Nature
Study

Pleasure
Driving
Driving |

Off-Road

Vehicles

Table 3.2 — Indexes of demand for outdoor recreation in the contiguous States by activity group
and type of activity, 1977, with projections to 2030

Activity group and
type of activity

Population index?
Land:

Camping (developed)

Camping (dispersed)

Driving off-road vehicles

Hiking

Horseback riding

Nature study

Picnicking

Pleasure driving

Sightseeing

Water:

Canoeing

Sailing

Other boating

Swimming outdoors

Water skiing

Projection
level!

Medium
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low

(1977 = 100)

Projections

218
158
124

243
170
128

305
231
183

209
159
127

189
146
117

204
137
96

261
181
134

305
200
141

396
281
212

257
182
137

229
164
125

249
155
101

2030
139

245
161
120

369
245
181

311
205
155

201
147
126

270
159
109

284
173
119

247
155
131

230
162
127

215
149
118

237
159
120

322
206
144

384
233
155

511
337
242

315
207
147

278
183
131

308
175
105

69

Table 3.2 — Indexes of demand for outdoor recreation in the contiguous States by activity group
and type of activity, 1977, with projections to 2030 — continued
(1977 = 100)

Activity group and
type of activity

Projection
level’

Snow and ice: High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low

Cross-country skiing

Downhill skiing

Ice skating

Sledding

Snowmobiling

Projections
2030

377
240
170

479
280
190

538
334
226
367
237
170

334
215
154

277
181

‘Projection levels are keyed to the projections of population, economic activity and income shown in table 1.1.
? Index of projected increases in population (medium level).

International Demands

International travel for outdoor recreation con-
tinues to expand despite the constraining effects of
the world energy shortages and inflationary pressures
on disposable income. Historically, the number of
U.S. citizens traveling to other nations has far out-
weighed the number of foreign visitors to the United
States. The United States Travel Survey! statistics
reveal that 133 million foreign trips were made by
U.S. citizens for outdoor recreation in 1977. This
amounts to 10 percent of all foreign trips made. Over
half of the trips by Americans to other countries were
to Canada, while another 14 percent were to Mexico.
Europe is by far most popular overseas destination,
accounting for over 40 percent of the overseas tour-
ists in 1977.

One indication of the outdoor recreational activi-
ties which American tourists enjoy in other countries
can be found ina study by the Canadian Government
Office of Tourism.!5 Its survey of United States auto-
mobile visitors found that trips for pleasure were the
most popular, and that activities participated in by

'$U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. U.S.
travel survey, 1977. Washington, D.C. 1977.

'S Canadian Government Office of Tourism. Canadian summer
travel surveys — 1977 auto exit survey. Ottawa, Ontario, Can.
1977.

70

the largest numbers of visitors included swimming,
fishing, hiking, picnicking, motor boating, and canoe-
ing. Most outdoor recreation occurs in the settled
southern one-third of Canada, which contains about
a million square miles. Land in the northern two-
thirds of the country, the majority of which is pub-
licly owned and under Federal or Provincial jurisdic-
tion, is open to outdoor recreational activities, such
as fishing and hunting.

Trips for pleasure were also the primary reason
that travelers from other countries visited the United
States. During the period of 1965-1978, the travel
market to the United States grew at an average
annual rate of 7 percent in terms of visitor arrivals,
and nearly 12 percent in terms of tourist spending. By
1978, the international market reached 19.8 million
arrivals and nearly $33 billion in expenditures.!®
About 57 percent of the arrivals in the United States
are from Canada, 31 percent from overseas, and 12
percent from Mexico. However, arrivals from over-
seas contribute 49 percent of the total expenditures
here, while Canada contributes 29 percent and Mex-
ico 22 percent.

The designations of many visitors from other coun-
tries tend to reflect the point of origin. The Pacific

16Shipka, B. D. International travel to and from the United
States. Paper presented at the Travel Outlook Forum, U.S. Travel
Service, Research and Analysis Division, Washington, D.C. 1976.

Table 3.3 — /ndexes of demand for outdoor recreation in the contiguous States by activity group
and region, in 1977, with projections to 2030
(1977 x 100)

Activity group and region with
percentage of national total

Land:

Northeast (26)

North Central (27)

Southeast (15)

South Central (11)

Rocky Mountains and Great Plains (7)
Northern Rocky Mountains’
Southern Rocky Mountains?
Great Plains?

Pacific Northwest (3)

Pacific Southwest (11)

All regions (100)

Water:

Northeast (26)

North Central (28)

Southeast (16)

South Central (11)

Rocky Mountain and Great Plains (6)
Northern Rocky Mountains’
Southern Rocky Mountains?
Great Plains?

Pacific Northwest (3)

Pacific Southwest (10)

All regions (100)

Snow and ice:

Northeast (32)

North Central (43)

Southeast (5)

South Central (4)

Rocky Mountains and Great Plains (6)
Northern Rocky Mountains'
Southern Rocky Mountains?
Great Plains?

Pacific Northwest (2)

Pacific Southwest (8)

All regions (100)

‘Northern Rocky Mountains includes the States of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.

Projections

152

158
171

156
158
126
179
139
166
188
161

205
211
218
199
180
143
204
158
188
214
206

246
248
175
161
228
182
258
200
235
257

?Southern Rocky Mountains includes the States of Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico.
’Great Plains includes the States of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas.

Coast is the most popular travel destination of any
region in the Nation, with many of its international
visitors originating in Asia and Oceania. Other popu-
lar areas are the Northeast, especially for Europeans,
and the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains, which
receive more long term visits than other regions.
These extended stays suggest that the visitors making
them tended to prefer touring and outdoor recrea-
tional activities.

In 1976, U.S. Travel Service’s Market Survey!’ also
reports that most visitors from other countries “saw
beautiful scenery,” while over a third participated in
warm weather sports and 4 percent in winter sports

'7 [bid.

and activities; more specifically, 9 percent went camp-
ing, and 3 percent went snow skiing. Initial estimates
indicate that international visitors represented about
2 percent of all users of the Nation’s outdoor recrea-
tional facilities.!8

Overall, trends in international tourism over the
past decade suggest that if the steady expansion of the
world economy and repeated improvements in trans-
portation technology continue, the Nation’s interna-
tional travel trade deficit eventually can be reduced.
The Nation’s balance-of-trade deficit of $30-$40 bil-

'8U.S. Department of Interior, Heritage, Conservation, and
Recreation Service. Federal estate outdoor recreation participa-
tion survey. (In process).

71

lion will also have a significant impact on inter-
national tourism in the future. It is expected that
relative prices in other countries will rise, with an
accompanying relative decrease in prices in the Uni-
ted States; as a result, Americans will spend less
money traveling abroad and more on vacationing at
home, while the opposite will occur in other countries.

Projections by the U.S. Travel Service support this
trend: An 8 percent increase in foreign visits to the
United States is projected during the next decade,
while only a 3 percent increase in U.S. travel to other
countries is expected. One result of such a situation
would be an increase of about | percent in the total
demand for recreational opportunities on U.S. forest
and range land.

Outdoor Recreation Supply

Forest and range lands provide a broad spectrum
of opportunities for recreational experiences. At one
end of the continuum is the opportunity for primitive
experiences, which require little or no modification of

Scenic beauty attracts many visitors to the U.S. from other countries.

The lake, Spirit Lake, and forest in this picture were

the natural environment. These experiences can be
characterized by limited or difficult access, the
absence of convenience facilities, low and relatively
dispersed use densities, and the absence of on-the-
ground controls. At the other end of the spectrum are
highly developed opportunities, which are distin-
guished by easy access, highly developed facilities and
user conveniences, high and relatively concentrated
use densities, and highly visible visitor controls.!9
Although nearly all of the Nation’s 1.7 billion acres
of forest and range lands and the associated waters
are capable of supporting some types of outdoor
recreation activities, currently only a small propor-
tion of that acreage is being intensively managed for

'9 Brown, P. J., B. L. Driver, and C. McConnell. Opportunity
spectrum concept, behavioral information in outdoor recreation
resources supply inventory: Background and application. Paper
presented at National Workshop of Integrated Inventories of
Renewable Natural Resources, Tucson, Ariz., Jan. 8-12, 1978.
Also Clark, R. N. and G. H. Stankey. The outdoor recreation
opportunity spectrum: A framework for management planning
and research. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,
Pacific Northwest Forest Exp. Sta., Portland, Ore. (In process).

ravaged by an eruption of Mount St. Helens (in the background) in May 1980.

qe

recreational purposes. Limited use areas, such as
parks and reservoirs, and developed recreational
sites, such as campgrounds and picnic areas, account
for a high proportion of this acreage.

Private outdoor recreation supply. — The 740 mil-
lion acres of private forest and range lands in the
United States represent a substantial land base for
outdoor recreation, especially in the eastern United
States. Of the 672 million acres of private, noncor-
porate forest and range lands in the United States,
about 50 percent is located in the eastern United
States. Also, over half of the Nation’s 68 million acres
or corporate forest and range lands are in the South
with 19 percent in the populated Northeast.2°

In providing a wide variety of outdoor recreational
opportunities, the private sector has assumed an
expanding role as a supplier in recent years. In the
public sector, where sentiment is more and more one
of leaving the development of capital-intensive,
convenience-oriented facilities to the private sector,
trends reflect a growing recognition of the comple-
mentary nature of public and private supplies of out-
door recreation.

Presently, the majority of the developed ski areas,
campgrounds, marinas, swimming pools, and guest
houses and ranches are on private lands. In addition,
private lands constitute a sizable recreation resource
for such dispersed opportunities as hunting, fishing,
hiking, picnicking, horseback riding, and off-road
vehicle use. Currently, about 29 percent of the pri-
vate, noncorporate and 54 percent of the corporate
forest and range lands in the United States, are open
to the public for some form of recreation (table 3.4).?!
Further, an additional 50 percent of noncorporate
and 15 percent of corporate lands are currently avail-
able either to family members, friends, and employees
of the owners, or to special groups through lease or
other arrangements. Although unavailable to the
general public, considerable recreational use is made
of these lands by the owners and their guests. For

20 Corporate forest and range lands include holdings by business
(mostly manufacturers, but including other commercial enter-
prises) as opposed to private, noncorporate holding where objec-
tives of ownership are usually personal.

2! Cordell, H. K., R. McLellan, H. Stevens, G. Tyre, and M.
Legg. Existing and potential recreation role of privately owned
forest and range lands in the United States: An assessment. (In
process). (Information describing private lands and their recrea-
tional potential as described in this section was derived through a
nationwide survey during 1977 and 1978 of private, corporate, and
government landowners and managers. This study was a coopera-
tive effort among the Forest Service and Soil Conservation Service
of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Clemson University, Ste-
phen F. Austin State University, and the University of Kentucky.
Detailed data from the study will be published as technical reports
in the near future by the Southeastern Forest Experiment Station).

example, 64 percent of owners allow guests to hunt
on their property.

The availability of land to the general public for
outdoor recreation varies considerably among regions.
For example, the percentage of corporate land avail-
able for public use varies from a high of 67 percent in
the Pacific Southwest and 63 percent in the North
Central region, to a low of 49 percent in the Pacific
Northwest and 51 percent in the Northwest. The per-
centage of private noncorporate land available varies
from highs of 44 percent in the Rocky Mountain and
Great Plains and 42 percent in the Northeast, to lows
of 16 percent in the South Central States and less
than 10 percent in the Southeast. The high percentage
in the Northeast is heavily influenced by the land
available in Maine where, traditionally, much of the
private land is open for public use.2?

Noncorporate and corporate owners have several
reasons for their particular public use policies. Im-
proved public relations, or some other form of a
“good neighbor” policy, is the primary motivation of
41 percent of noncorporate and 63 percent of cor-
porate landowners to open lands (fig. 3.2).

An additional 8 percent of noncorporate and 3 per-
cent of corporate owners cited income earning poten-
tial. Twenty-one and 13 percent, respectively, indi-
cated that their land is open because it would be too
difficult and costly to post and enforce the postings.
Another reason for opening significant acreages
of corporate land for public use is multiple-use
management.

Hunting is by far the most common recreation use
allowed by both noncorporate and corporate land-
owners. Sixty-three percent of noncorporate land-
owners permit hunting on the lands they have desig-
nated as generally open to public use. Similarly, 84
percent of corporate owners permit hunting. Hiking
and fishing also are commonly permitted activities
with 37 percent of the noncorporate owners permit-
ting these activities; for corporate owners, 70 percent
permit hiking and 63 percent permit fishing. Activi-
ties such as picnicking, camping, horseback riding,
and off-road vehicular use are also commonly
allowed. Other activities, such as snow skiing, boat-
ing, and swimming are permitted, but by many fewer
owners, perhaps due to a lack of suitable climate or
facilities.

Future prospects for increasing the availability of
developed private lands for such recreational uses as
campgrounds, ski developments, and marinas are
encouraging where returns on investments may be

22Steward, B. E. Recreation use of private land in a portion
eastern Maine. Maine Agricultural Experiment Station, Misc.
Pub. 685. 1963.

73

Table 3.4 — Percent of private forest and range land in the United States available for public
recreation use by availability status, ownership, and region, 1977
(Percent)

Availability status Ownership status

Open to public
without permission

Noncorporate'

Corporate’
Open only with fee,
permit, or verbal

permission

Noncorporate'

Corporate’

Closed except for
owner, special group
or employee use

Not designated

Noncorporate'

Corporate’
Noncorporate'
Corporate’

‘Corporate forest and range lands include holdings by business (mostly
manufacturers but including other commercial enterprises as opposed to private,

noncorporate forest and range lands which includes individual, family, or
partnership Ownership where the objectives for ownership are usually personal).

satisfactory. However, prospects are not promising
for activities which offer little or no economic return.
For instance, current percentages of noncorporate
lands being put to recreational use indicate a signifi-
cant drop in availability when compared with earlier
studies. Brown reported a 68 percent increase in land
posting in New York between 1963 and 1972.23

The major reasons for closing lands include inter-
ference with other activities, property damage, dis-
turbance of privacy, and wildlife disturbance. Also,
many landowners who have land open for public use
feel that recreational visitors create problems such as
littering, fire, illegal hunting, vandalism, crop dam-
age, and theft. In most of these situations, the land-
owners are protected by laws which prohibit such acts
as fire setting and vandalism. Apparently, however,
landowners do not feel that existing levels of law
enforcement are adequate to fully protect their rights
and property, and future closure of their lands is a
possibility.

An underlying cause of the lack of management
programs for recreation is that most private land-
owners have objectives or primary uses for their lands

23 Brown, T. L. and D. Q. Thompson. Changes in posting and
landowners attitudes in New York State, 1963-1973. New York
Fish and Game Journal 23 (2): 101-137. 1976.

74

Total | North- | North | South- | South
U.S. east | Central] east | Central
6 15 1 4 4

Region

Rocky
Mountains Pacific Pacific
and Great | Southwest | Northwest
Plains

10
25

Source: Cordell, H. Ken, Robert McLellan, Herbert Stevens, Gary Tyre, and
Michael Legg. Existing and potential recreation role of privately owned forest and
range lands in the United States: An assessment. (In process).

other than recreation. In fact, recreation is seldom a
major land-management objective for private lands.
Only 3.7 percent of the corporate land managers and
| percent of the noncorporate owners have commer-
cial recreation as a primary management objective for
their forest and range lands. Other land uses which
take precedence over recreation include timber or
pulpwood production, livestock grazing, agriculture
production, and residential developments. It would
appear that, if problems with recreational use of pri-
vate lands could be reduced, more private lands
would be available to the general public; this would
reduce the pressure for increased government acquisi-
tion, development, and operation of recreation lands.

Public outdoor recreation supply — Federal forest
and range lands in the United States represent a sub-
stantial land base for outdoor recreation with the
Federal Government owning 718 million acres or
nearly 46 percent of the total United States forest and
range land acreage. Although more than 100 agen-
cies, boards, and commissions have an influence on
recreational supply, seven Forest agencies provided
most of the outdoor recreational opportunities on
those lands in 1977. The Forest Service supplied the
largest number in terms of visitor days of recreation,
followed by the Corps of Engineers, National Park
Service, and Bureau of Land Management (table 3.5,
fig. 3.3). Together these agencies managed lands

Timberline Lodge on Mt. Hood, constructed by the Federal Government in the 1930’s. Now the construction and operation of such
capital-intensive, convenience-oriented outdoor recreation facilities are almost entirely in the private sector.

Figure 3.2

Reasons Given by Landowners for Allowing Public Use of Their Land

63

| Corporate

Noncorporate

a Gi ETE Lit ig Z i a Wooo GRID, iz
Improves Posting Reduces Part of Can Help Required Public Other
Public Too Vandalism Multiple Make Avoid by Pressure
Relations _ Difficult Use Income Condem- Law To Open
nation

75

Figure 3.3

Recreation Visitor-Days of Use Provided at Federal Areas

Recreation Visitor Days (Millions)

225

Fee Management Areas
a Ess g

Non-Fee Management Areas
175

150
125
100
75
50

25

Bsn iS
Bureau of

Bureau of Corps of
Land Reclamation Engineers
Management

supporting over 90 percent of the recreational use on
the Federal estate. Other Federal agencies supplying
significant recreational opportunities included the
Bureau of Reclamation, Fish and Wildlife Service,
and Tennessee Valley Authority.

The prevalent type of recreational experience pro-
vided differs markedly among the various Federal
agencies. Most recreational visits to National Park
and Corps of Engineers lands occur in areas with
well-developed facilities such as visitor centers, mari-
nas, campgrounds, and picnic areas. On lands admin-
istered by the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land
Management, a majority of the recreational use
occurs in dispersed areas where the most popular
activities pursued are primitive camping, summer and
winter recreation travel, hunting, and fishing.

The types of experiences sought by recreationists
on Federal lands also appear to differ significantly
according to the results of an on-site survey which
was part of the 1977 National Outdoor Recreation
Survey.”4 Interviews with 11,549 recreationists indi-

24U.S. Department of Interior, Heritage, Conservation and

Recreation Service. Federal estate outdoor recreation participa-
tion survey. (In process).

76

Fish and
Wildlife
Service

Tennessee

Forest National
Service Park Valley
Service Authority

cated that the main attraction of Corps of Engineers
areas was their “good” facilities, while scenic beauty
was most important to National Forest visitors. The
desire to see a new area was expressed as the most
frequent reason individuals visited National Parks.
This survey also showed that the Forest Service pro-
vided the greatest number of long term recreational
experiences on Federal lands. Over 50 percent of the
Forest Service visitors stayed more than 2 days dur-
ing their visits, while another 20 percent spent at least
7 days.

Differences in recreational opportunities on Fed-
eral lands reflect the management directions of the
administering agencies and the resources available for
use. One major class of Federal areas is comprised of
those units administered by the National Park Ser-
vice, which oversees the best-known and most distinc-
tive recreation resources in the United States. In
1977, there were 34 National Parks containing some
of the most outstanding scenic areas in the world. In
addition, there are a large number of other units such
as battlefields, seashores, and historic sites. Overall,
the National Park Service administers nearly 300
areas covering some 31 million acres in 49 States, the

Table 3.5 — Recreation visitor days' of use of federal recreation areas in the United States by
managing agency and fee status, 1977

Thousands Percent
60,225 10.6

Bureau of Land
Management?

Bureau of Reclamation 33,607 5.9
Corps of Engineers 162,751 28.8
Fish and Wildlife 6,010 1.1

Service
Forest Service
National Park Service

Tennessee Valley
Authority

Total

36.1
16.3 .
1.2

204,797
92,029
6,980

‘Recreation use which aggregates 12 person hours may entail 1 person for 12
hours, 12 persons for only 1 hour, or any equivalent combination of individual or
group use.

2A Federal fee area provides certain specialized outdoor recreation facilities,
equipment, or services at Federal expense and then charges fees — entrance,

District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands.

The fundamental purpose for which the National
Park System was established was stated in the Act of
1916 creating the National Park Service: “.. . to con-
serve the scenery and natural and historic objects and
wildlife therein; and to provide for the enjoyment of
the same in such manner and by such means as will
leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of future
generations.” The National Park Service has at-
tempted to adhere to this policy over the years, but
has experienced increasing difficulty as use pressure
has mounted. While fulfilling an important role in
providing outdoor recreation, their lands must serve
varied preservation, scientific, educational, and cul-
tural purposes. For instance, recreational facilities in
National Parks are designed to protect the unique
qualities of each area. Often, this means restricting
concentrations of people to developed areas such as
campgrounds and visitor centers, channeling visitors’
movements with hardened foot paths, and restricting
backcountry travel to well-marked areas. The recrea-
tional activities allowed are also limited. As an exam-
ple, hunting is forbidden in most National Parks.

A second major class of Federal areas important
for outdoor recreation is “water” areas. The Bureau
of Reclamation, the Corps of Engineers, and the
Tennessee Valley Authority are all Federal agencies
which administer reservoirs, other impounded waters,
rivers, and the land surrounding them. While serving
such primary purposes as flood control, irrigation,
and hydroelectric power generation, the projects
administered by these agencies also provide signifi-

566,399 100.0 158,206 408,193

Nonfee
management units

Fee
management units

Thousands Percent Thousands Percent

39,915 7.0 20,310 3.6
146 33,461 5.9
10,238 151,513 26.8
1,123 4,887 9
25,646 179,151 31.6
79,596 12,433 2.2
542 6,438 1.1

user, and/or special permit — to cover costs. The Bureau of Land Management is
the only Federal agency which includes areas charging special permit fees under
this category.

Source: U.S. Department of Interior, Heritage Conservation and Recreation
Service. Federal recreation fees-1977. (In process)

cant water recreation opportunities. These include
swimming, boating, water skiing, picnicking, camp-
ing, fishing, and sightseeing. Together, these agencies
have constructed over 750 reservoirs with 7.7 million
surface acres of water and 69,000 miles of shoreline.

A third distinctive type of Federal area includes all
units administered by the Forest Service and the
Bureau of Land Management. Together, these agen-
cies administer 93 percent of the forest and range land
in Federal ownership and provide significant dis-
persed recreational opportunities. For instance, dis-
persed recreation accounts for two-thirds of the par-
ticipation on the National Forests (table 3.6).

Although the official policy of the Forest Service
and Bureau of Land Management has been to
encourage outdoor recreation, most of these lands are
managed to ensure the continuous provision of all
forest and range products, including timber, water,
grazing, and wildlife. Consequently, as with all other
resource opportunities, the recreational opportunities
offered to the public must be compatible with the
overall objectives established for each area. Also, the
type of recreational opportunities provided is often
influenced by management activities for other forest
uses or products. For instance, roads built principally
for timber harvest also provide opportunities for
dispersed camping with motorized vehicles and can
serve as cross-country ski and snowmobile trails
when snow-covered.

Special designation of Federal lands also influences
the recreational opportunities they provide. One type
of specially designated Federal lands is the National

Te

Table 3.6— Number of recreation visitor days of
outdoor recreation activities on National For-
ests in the United States by types of activity
and area, 1978

(Thousands)

Developed | Dispersed

Activity group and
type of activity

Land:
Bicycling 434.2 1S 422.7
Camping 59,902.6 | 41,539.8 18,362.8
Motor bike 4,520.7 2.8 4,517.9
Hiking! 10,925.6 196.8 10,728.8
Horseback riding 3,038.3 31.5 3,006.8
Hunting 14,946.2 13.9 14,932.3
Nature study 1,;257:3 205.9 1,051.4
Picnicking 8,762.8 6,094.1 2,668.7
Pleasure walks 1,587.0 132.8 1,454.2
Sightseeing? 52,387.5 4,851.3 47 536.2
Other? 16,028.0 | 12,395.9 3,632.1

Water:
Canoeing 890.1
Sailing 185.0
Other watercraft* 4,870.4
Fishing 15,977.9
Swimming 2,651.7
Water skiing 917.6

25,492.7

Snow and Ice:
Cross-country skiing
Downhill skiing

Ice skating
Sledding
Ice and snowcraft
Snowplay
15,072.7 | 10,015.5
Grand Total 218,494.3 | 79,630.5 | 138,863.8

‘Includes mountain climbing.

?Includes viewing outstanding scenery, auto driving, aerial trams and lifts,
viewing works of man, and VIS related.

3 Includes spectator sports and activities, team sports, games, other accommo-
dations, gathering forest products, and acquiring general knowledge and
understanding

*Includes ship, yacht, ferry, and powered boats.

Recreation Area. With primary management direc-
tion in National Recreation Areas centering on out-
door recreational opportunities, management of such
other resources as timber, range, and minerais may be
secondary, depending upon the use restrictions
imposed by the administering agency. The concept of
these areas has grown to encompass a wide variety of
lands and waters set aside by Congress for recrea-
tional use, especially around major urban areas. The
acreage of these lands has grown from 116,000 acres
in 1962 to more than 3 million acres by 1977. Pres-
ently, 17 National Recreation Areas are administered
by the Park Service and seven by the Forest Service.

78

Other systems established by Congress to promote,
preserve, and protect recreation and other resources
across the Nation include the National Wilderness
Preservation System, the National Wild and Scenic
Rivers System, and the National Trails System. These
systems will be discussed later.

Many of the problems associated with providing
outdoor recreation opportunities on public lands
arise from the uneven geographic distribution of Fed-
eral lands. Although Federal units are represented
throughout the United States, over 90 percent of the
forest and range lands in Federal ownership are
located in the western United States, including
Alaska. This means that for every individual living in
the western United States, there are 16 Federal forest
acres. In contrast, the northern States have 1.9 per-
cent of the Federal forest and range land or 0.1 acre
per person, and the southern States have 2.4 percent
or 0.3 acre per person.

To some degree, Federal agencies can offset
regional acreage limitations by expending more funds
and committing available acres to outdoor recrea-
tion. However, it appears that even these actions cur-
rently reflect geographic differences. For instance,
there are 16 National Recreation Areas located in the
western United States, while there are only four in the
southeast and four in the Northeast. Similarly, the
distribution of expenditures for outdoor recreation
by Federal Government agencies on a per capita basis
is largest in the western regions (fig. 3.4).

The geographic balance of public lands is more
evenly distributed, however, if the 6 percent of the
forest and range lands owned by State and local
governments is also considered. Although States own
only 1.6 million acres in the southeastern and 3.3
million acres in the South Central regions, States in
the Northeastern region own 9.6 million acres and
those in the North Central region own 11.8 million.
Noteworthy examples of State-owned tracts are the
Adirondack (2.5 million acres) and Catskill (259,000
acres) State Parks in New York, and Baxter State
Park (200,000 acres) in Maine. The addition of State
lands more than doubles the per capita availability of
public forest and range lands in the North to 0.3 acre
per person.

State and local lands thus constitute an important
supply of outdoor recreational opportunities which
can complement those provided on Federal areas.
Many State parks, forests, and wildlife areas possess
significant scenic, historical, cultural, and other
recreational features. Others provide outdoor recrea-
tional opportunities to metropolitan centers. States
reported that their parks had more than 565 million

Recreation can be compatible with other forest management objectives.
Logging roads can serve as cross country ski trails in winter and
hiking trails in summer.

visits in 1975, which represented an increase of 45
percent in the number of visits over those made in
1967.26

Nonetheless, it is difficult to fully assess the
national impact of State and locally owned units on
outdoor recreation. There are few common denomi-
nators between States and local governments with
respect to the administration of lands. Some States
manage their land strictly according to use desig-
nation — like those State Parks managed solely for
outdoor recreation and preservation of resources. In
other States, State Parks and State forests are man-
aged for both recreational purposes and other forest
and range products without special distinction be-
tween the two systems. Also, some States have not yet
given their lands any special classification. An exam-
ple is Alaska, which, as a result of the Statehood Act,
has 36.4 million acres in State ownership, but pres-
ently lacks any special management classification of
its land. Similarly, several western States have school
trust lands. Some of these tracts are administered by
agencies, like public school systems, whose primary
responsibility is not land or recreation management.

26 The National Association of State Park Directors and Mis-
souri Division of Parks and Recreation. State park statistics —
1975. National Recreation and Park Association, Arlington, Va.
34 p. 1977.

Future prospects for increasing the availability of
outdoor recreational opportunities on public lands
will depend on two factors: (1) The continued recog-
nition of outdoor recreation values to society and (2)
a continuing commitment to the funding necessary
for the expansion and maintenance of outdoor
recreational resources. While fulfilling an important
role in supplying recreational opportunities, most
public lands must also serve other purposes. These
include such diverse purposes as generation of hydro-
electric power, timber production, fish and wildlife
habitat, preservation of wilderness, municipal water-
sheds, a source of minerals, and livestock production.
In planning future programs for public lands, out-
door recreation must be given adequate consideration
with other objectives for public lands if future genera-
tions are to enjoy outdoor recreational experiences
equal to what the Nation has come to appreciate.

Equally important will be the need for adequate
funding in the future. Expenditures by the Federal
Government in outdoor recreation totalled $1.5 bil-
lion in 1975, an increase of 91 percent over the 1965
level.2”7 Due to inflation, however, this rise repre-
sented only a slight increase in real value and may

27 Federal outdoor recreation expenditure study, 1975, op. cit.

79

actually have reflected a decrease in Federal com-
mitment given the broadened coverage of the more
recent compilations. At the same time, there was an
increasing emphasis being placed on the maintenance
and rehabilitation of existing facilities rather than
developing new ones. Appropriations for outdoor
recreation larger than those presently allocated are
needed if public recreational opportunities are to be
sufficiently expanded to meet the demand created by
increasing public participation.

Supply and Demand Comparisons

Because of the lack of data, it was not possible to
adequately prepare longrun projections of supplies
for the various outdoor recreational activities. How-
ever, the projected increases in demand (table 3.2)
indicate how much supplies might have to be
increased if demands are to be met. In addition,
regional demand increased in each region of the
country. The national and regional needs for in-
creases in supplies, as shown by the demand projec-
tions, are supplemented in the following discussion:

Dispersed land activities — Recent increases in par-
ticipation of dispersed land activities have been sub-
stantial. In 1978, for example, over half of the recrea-
tional use of National Forest lands was for dispersed
land activities, amounting to over 108 million recrea-
tion visitor days of use. That figure represents an
increase of approximately 35 million recreation
visitor days over the last decade.

Increased participation in dispersed land recreation
can be attributed to a number of factors. Over a
decade ago, the back-to-nature movement and mount-
ing interest in physical fitness and outdoor activity
together spawned the resurgence of hiking, backpack-
ing, mountain climbing, and similar activities. The
availability of recreational vehicles, both for camping
and off-road driving, has also added a completely
new dimension to dispersed land recreation. Camping
along roadsides has increased with the growing popu-
larity of recreation vehicles such as truck campers,
camping and travel trailers, and motor homes. And
the development of lightweight, dependable, and
high-performance off-road vehicles (motorcycles, all-
terrain vehicles, and four-wheel drive vehicles) and
the extension of forest roads has established motor-
ized travel as a popular activity on forest and range
lands.

The very freedom and lack of development which
characterize dispersed land activities make any pre-
cise statement about the current supply situation for
these opportunities difficult. Nonetheless, it appears
that the potential supply of dispersed land oppor-
tunities — both nonmotorized and motorized —is
considerable.

80

Figure 3.4

Comparison of Population, Forest
and Rangeland Area and Outdoor
Recreation Expenditures by
Geographic Area

Population

Pacific
Coast

13.1%

Rocky
Mountains
and

Great
Plains

Forest and
Rangeland |
Area

Outdoor
Recreation
Expendi-
tures

16.3%

ES

For nonmotorized activities, many of the public
lands are available as well as about a third of private
forest and range lands in the United States. However,
the provision of trails is important for the enjoyment
of nonmotorized recreational activities. Originally
established as travel routes by Indians and early
settlers, trail networks were improved and augmented
by early land managers to help protect and manage
forest and range resources. Because trails have only
recently assumed their primary value as recreational
resources, most trails were designed for other uses.
Also, many trails have been replaced by roads. As
one result, the 150,000 miles of trails existing on
National Forest lands in 1944 have been reduced by
93,000 miles (table 3.7). Currently, trails on all Fed-
eral lands total over 109,000 miles, while more than
36,000 miles of trail are under State ownership, and
116,000 miles are on private land. The estimated cost
of construction for Forest Service trails presently
averages about $10,000 per mile. Maintenance costs
run about $130 per mile per year.

Congressional recognition of the importance of
recreational trails resulted in the passage of the
National Trails System Act in 1968. An important
step in ensuring the development and maintenance of
the country’s supply of trails, the Act called for desig-
nation of National Trails, and connecting and side
trails. Thus far, three scenic trails have been estab-
lished — the Appalachian Trail (2,050 miles), Contin-
ental Divide Trail (3,100 miles), and the Pacific Crest
Trail (2,460 miles) —and four historic trails — Oregon
Trail, Lewis and Clark Trail, Mormon Trail, and Idi-
tarod Trail (Gold Rush Trail). Another 10 trails are
either under study or have yet to be acted upon by
Congress (fig. 3.5).

Numerous opportunities for dispersed motorized
activities exist on the Nation’s forest and range lands.
For example, nearly 247,000 miles of Forest Service
roads provide a substantial opportunity base. These
roads include just over 10,000 miles of paved roads,
over 55,000 of rock and graveled roads, and over
99,000 miles of primitive condition roads. Informal
dispersed recreational sites located along these roads,
such as clearings resulting from timber harvest, pro-
vide a large number of opportunities for activities
including roadside camping and motorcycling.

One indication of the quantity of such sites now in
use can be found in a study of dispersed road recrea-
tion on three National Forests in the Pacific North-
west.28 This study identified 622 sites, which if defined

8 Hendee, J. C., M. L. Hogans, and R. Koch. Dispersed recrea-
tion on three forest road systems in Washington and Oregon: First-
year data. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Pacific Northwest
Forest and Range Experiment Station, PNW Publication No. 280.
20 p. 1976.

as specific locations showing evidence of camping or
other recreational activity, along 316 miles of road.
From 10 to 17 percent of these sites had experienced a
heavy degree of environmental impact from use and
appeared to be among the most popular with users.

In addition to existing roads, many trails and open
areas on public lands are available for off-road vehi-
cle use, although restrictions on certain vehicles and
seasons of use have been placed on 41 million acres.
Additional lands could be made available if areas
being considered for wilderness designations are
opened to nonwilderness uses.

Regulations on off-road vehicle use are being devel-
oped by the Bureau of Land Management. They may
result in a moderate reduction in the supply of off-
road vehicle opportunities. For example, 12 million
acres of the Bureau’s land in California Deserts Con-
servation Area have already been classified to protect
endangered species and areas of high scientific value.
Five percent of this land has been completely closed
to off-road vehicles, 5 percent is open to all off-road
vehicle travel, while 90 percent has been left open, but
with travel restricted to particular seasons and exist-
ing roads and trails.

Complementing the use of Federal lands as a
supply of dispersed recreational opportunities are
State, local, and private lands. Private lands consti-
tute a particularly important supply of dispersed
motorized activities, especially in the East. Whereas,
off-road motorcyclists in the western United States
rely equally on National Forest, Bureau of Land
Management, and private lands, eastern riders rely
very heavily on private lands. In Michigan, for exam-
ple, the largest proportion of trail biking — 59 per-
cent — occurs on private land, according to a survey
conducted by the Michigan Department of Natural
Resources in 1976.29 Although the informality of the
use of private lands makes any estimation of their
supply difficult, the extent of these lands and their
dispersed recreation potential are considerable.

As the popularity of dispersed land recreation has
continued to grow, so have the problems associated
with dispersed land activities. Environmental prob-
lems have intensified with continuing increases in
recreation users. Soil and vegetation disruption by
foot, horse, and vehicular traffic is destroying the
environmental integrity of some areas. Soil compac-
tion has resulted at most heavily used campsites, leav-
ing them barren of vegetation and often either dusty
or muddy. Trails are threatened by erosion, which

29Michigan Department of Natural Resources. Analysis of
recreation participation and public opinions on off-road vehicles
from a 1976 telephone survey. Recreation Planning and Research
Service Section, Recreation Survey Report No. |. Lansing, Mich.
1977.

81

Table 3.7 — Trail mileage in the United States and territories, by ownership, and section, region,

Section, region
and State

North:

Northeast:
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia

Total

North Central:
Illinois
Indiana
lowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Ohio
Wisconsin

Total

Total, North

South:

Southeast:
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia

Total

South Central:
Alabama
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas

Total

Total, South

82

State and territory, 1978'

Ownership
Federal

Bureau of
Land
Management

National
Park
Service

Corps
of
Engineers

Forest
Service

Total
Federal

County
Other? | State and Private
Municipal

489
78
5,450
672
5,630
480
2,585
1,558
4,469
301
20,903
996

OCOCOO0O0CO0COOCONC Oo
oo0o0o0o000o00 0000
oo0o0oo0o0o0o0o0CcC0C0

1,418
1,181

640
3,099
2,460
1,098
4,581
1,598

oOoOoOOnD00C oO
oOoOO0O0C0CO0C 0

851
1,321
2,657

966
2,011

7,806

426
499
689
278
208
329
2,087

4,516

Table 3.7 — Trail mileage in the United States and territories, by ownership, and section, region,
State and territory, 1978’ — continued

, ; Federal
Section, region

and State iota

National
Park
Service

Forest
Service

Total
Federal

Rocky Mountains and

Great Plains:
Arizona 4,932 3,610 3,338
Colorado 14,886 8,153 7,609
Idaho 18,215 | 17,509 | 17,384
Kansas 794 4 0
Montana 18,635 | 14,608} 13,552
Nebraska 12,393 63 63
Nevada 2,242 2,136 1,756
New Mexico 3,535 3,244 3,002

North Dakota 634 138 15

South Dakota 1,044 351 338

Utah 11,816 6,084 | 5,722

Wyoming 5,797 4,219 2,262
Total

Bureau of

Management

Ownership

Corps
Land of
Engineers

County
and
Municipal

Other?| State Private

1,322
6,071
569
680
3,988
12,305
64
254
142
518
571
1,453

27,937

GDCODODOOCOOFNWO

Pacific Northwest:
Alaska
Oregon
Washington

Total

102 1,089
136 592
662 4,715

Pacific Southwest:

California 33,995 | 19,758
Hawaii 864 269
Total 34,859 | 20,027

Total, Pacific Coast

2; re 9,563
180
uae OC aha 9,743

Total, United States

Virgin Islands
Puerto Rico
Total 74

'Does not include additional snow-covered roads or routes such as snow-
mobile and cross-country ski trails.

2The category “other” consists of the Fish and Wildlife Service and the
Tennessee Valley Authority.

not only scars the land, but also pollutes water and
impairs fisheries and aquatic wildlife. Desert lands
and alpine tundra are especially fragile environments
where resource damage can require decades of natu-
ral repair.

Off-road vehicle use has intensified the recreational
pressures on public land and has resulted in addi-
tional problems such as air, noise, and esthetic pollu-
tion. Noise pollution, in particular, may disrupt wild-
life. It can also reduce the quality of the esthetic
environment, detracting from the enjoyment of some
recreational users who desire a quieter, more peaceful
experience.

"Sy 2 FN 55

Source: U.S. Department of Interior, National Park Service, National Park
trails, Part 1, Special Report. Service Center 86 p. 1973; National Association of
Conservation Districts, Inventory of private recreation facilities-1977.

Crowding can be a significant social problem at
those times when users experience higher densities of
use than they desire. Often, it is not only the number
of other recreationists encountered that decreases the
users’ satisfaction with their experiences, but also the
type of use. Conflicts can arise between hikers and
horseback riders and between these users and vehicle
drivers. Other social problems, such as littering, van-
dalism, and even theft, have resulted from greater
participation in dispersed land activities. And prob-
lems of public health and sanitation, including
human injury and improper waste disposal, have also
increased.

83

Figure 3.5

National Trails System, National Scenic and National Historic Trails, September 1, 1979

: Sie
( yee Sf \o
\ es
. ee
! ™~ < s ty
| Pee ge oO
ane Se
Si KITTANNING @
moneen <7 ie
=) . =? hide &
eae Aon “a
on DOMINGUEZ i rs ben _: ws “eR
a ANTE | ee mM p wwoee yeeeaan Designation
. x P § ant H gartauo® pap Dag
e Ni kb ©. on = | { es es Existing
e gf why — © < i Scenic eee
e < J e <a = d Eaten YY Historic — —_ oo:
e N ae i= al
‘i je | TOES Study* ———a
°, Ss ie | ~ 3 0" ; (approximate route)
=
MORMON & le | < |
7 ! ‘oe =
. ‘ 2; *Studies completed.

See

IDITAROD
co.p pushy |S

ee

‘44 Recommended for designation:
Potomac Heritage Trail
North Country Trail

Not recommended for
designation:
Old Cattle Trails
Mormon Battalion Trail
Long Trail
Kittanning Path
Sante Fe Trail
El Camino Real

EL CAMINO
REAL

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior
Heritage Conservation and Recreation
Service

Managerial problems of maintenance and enforce-
ment can be expected to increase, particularly on
public lands where freedom from regulation has been
an important element of dispersed recreation activi-
ties. On some public lands, for instance, restrictions
are being placed on off-road vehicular use, while lim-
itations on the backcountry use of some National
Forests now include restrictive regulations on camp-
ing and open fires, party size, and length of stay.

Managers are also faced with increasing conflicts
between recreationists on public lands and the owners
of adjacent private property who are sometimes
plagued by trespassing and destructive behavior.
These conflicts dissuade private property owners
from allowing the access necessary to public lands if
the opportunities for dispersed recreation are to be
maximized.

84

Developed land activities — Development of recrea-
tion sites on forest and range lands has provided an
expanded range of recreational opportunities. On
public lands, site development now focuses on service
facilities that serve the public. Recreational use tends
to be concentrated around special scenic or recreation
features, facilities, or travel routes. For instance, Yel-
lowstone National Park has about 95 percent of its
total use on a few easily accessible and highly popular
spots comprising | percent of its total area. And on
National Forests, developed recreational sites ac-
count for 36 percent of total recreational use, but
only 0.3 percent of National Forest lands.

The development of recreational sites can be the
result of any number of factors. In the past, recrea-
tional homes on both public and private lands
enabled individuals to enjoy the scenic and recrea-

<2

2 BRS y,

Outdoor recreational use tends to be concentrated around recrea-
tional facilities.

tional values of forest and range lands. More
recently, recreational home development has been
mostly limited to private lands. At the present time,
an estimated 10 percent of all households in the
United States own recreational property.*°

Sites on public lands are developed with facilities
because of their specific capabilities, such as scenic
values, or to permit uses otherwise unavailable be-
cause of fire hazards or fragile environments. Some
sites, such as campgrounds and picnic areas, provide
services like safe drinking water, sanitation facilities,
and other conveniences which are necessary for main-
taining some recreation opportunities.

Sites may also be developed on public lands at a
central location, such as a visitor center, in order to
inform and to educate visitors. For many people, vis-
itor centers, with the associated interpretive services,
are an important part of the outdoor recreational ex-
perience. Over 500 such centers are now located on
Federal lands. These facilities are often concentrated
in areas of especially high use and help to orient visi-
tors to recreational opportunities, to interpret the
national and cultural history of the area, and to
develop an appreciation for the basic ecology, man-
agement, use, and protection of the Nation’s forest
and range lands. In so doing, interpretive services
fulfill an important role by encouraging user self-
regulation while enriching the recreational experience.

The nature of developed recreational sites is such
that a number of opportunities may be available

30Ragatz, R. L. Private seasonal-recreational property devel-
opment and its relationship to forest management and public use
of forest lands. Unpublished report for the Southeastern Forest
Experiment Station. 301 p. 1978.

which induce entrepreneurs to provide services on
either public or private lands. Because developed and
dispersed recreational activities are often complemen-
tary, such site development can contribute to the
availability of a wide range of recreational opportuni-
ties, which, in turn, can promote a private operation’s
success. For example, campgrounds may serve as a
focal point for the placement of trail heads or visitor
centers as well as a prime area for rest and relaxation.

Large numbers of developed outdoor recreation
areas appear throughout the United States. For
instance, there were 15,852 campgrounds listed in the
Rand McNally directory in 19773! (table 3.8). The
private sector supplies a majority of the campgrounds
in the North and South, while a majority of the
campgrounds in the Rocky Mountains and Great
Plains and Pacific Coast States are public. In the
public sector, the Forest Service supplied 43 percent
of the campgrounds; States, 26 percent; local govern-
ments, 10 percent; and the National Park Service,
5 percent.

Generally, public campgrounds have placed greater
emphasis on scenic and other qualities of the natural
environment, while private campgrounds tend to
provide more convenience facilities. This situation is
reflected in 1977 Woodall statistics which indicate
that three-fourths or more of all private campsites
had electricity and water.32 By comparison, less than
one-fourth of the public sites had electricity, and one
in ten had water at each site. The basic camp site fee
at private campgrounds averaged $4.60 in 1977, while
the fee at public campgrounds averaged $3.22.33

These campgrounds may accommodate either tents
or recreational vehicles or both. The tent has been the
traditional shelter for many years, but, by 1976, the
use of recreational vehicles had surpassed that of
tents. Nonetheless, there are some indications from
recent surveys that tents may be regaining their
former popularity.34. The tent camper generally
requires a site offering flat ground, water, sanitary
facilities, tables, and fireplaces. By comparison,
recreational vehicles require a level place to park,
facilities for depositing wastes and refilling with fuel
and water, and usually an electrical hookup. Camp-
sites usually cost in the range of $2,500 to $10,000.

31Rand McNally and Company. Rand McNally campground
and trailer park guide. Editors’ annual. Chicago, Ill. 1973 and
1977.

32 Woodall Publishing Company. Woodall’s campground direc-
tory, 1977. North American edition. Highland Park, Ill. 1977.

33Rand McNally campground and trailer park guide, op. cil.

34 Kottke, M. W., and M. I. Bevins, G. L. Cole, K. J. Hock, and
W. F. LaPage. Analysis of the campground market in the North-
east, report III: A prospective on the camping-involvement cycle.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, NE Forest Experi-
ment Station, Upper Darby, Pa. Research paper NE-322. 1975.

85

Table 3.8 — Number of campgrounds in the
United States by section and region and
ownership, 1973 and 1977

Ownership
Section and Private
North:
Northeast

2147 | 2265} 469 | 476 | 1678
3154 | 3314] 1340 | 1351 | 1814

1543 | 1632] 400 | 435 | 1143
1932 | 1957] 955 |1012 | 977

North Central
Total

South:
Southeast
South Central

Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains: | 3673 | 3526 | 2228 | 2230 | 1445

Pacific Coast:
Pacific
Northwest 1510 | 144711036 | 1003 | 474
Pacific
Southwest 1803 | 1711 |1067 | 1062 | 736
Total 3313 3313 | 3158 1210

Total
United States 5852 |7495 | 7569 | 8267 | 8283

Source: Rand McNally and Company. Rand McNally campground and trailer
park guide. Chicago, Illinois, 1973 and 1977 edition. Annual

The variation in costs is caused by such factors as
level and scale of development, types of pollution-
control measures needed, and local land values.

The most significant growth in the supply of devel-
oped land opportunities occurred during the sixties
and early seventies. The slow growth in facilities in
recent years can be attributed to the significant
increases in development costs. Also, there appeared
to be an overexpansion of the number of recreational
facilities, such as campgrounds, in the early seventies.
For instance, a nationwide campground occupancy
monitoring system, established by the National Camp-
ground Owners Association, indicated that average
occupancy for the summer season was only 58 per-
cent in 1978.35 The long-term, break-even point is
estimated at approximately 65 percent.

Discussion continues over defining the proper roles
of the private and public sectors in meeting demands
for developed facilities such as campgrounds. Senti-
ment in the public sector has been increasingly one of
leaving the development of more capital-intensive,
convenience-oriented facilities to the private sector.

Issues are also evolving over the expansion of other
facilities. For example, in Europe, lodging and meal

35 Brown, T. L. and B. P. Wilkins. A study of campground busi-
ness in New York. Dep. Natural Resources, Research Series No. 2.
1975.

86

In Europe, lodging and meal facilities are commonly spaced along
well-traveled trails. In the U.S., hikers and trail riders must provide
their own shelter and meals in most areas.

services are commonly spaced along well-traveled
trails to provide hikers with a combination back-
country and social experience. Proponents claim that
such systems aid resource managers in minimizing
undesirable use impact on natural resources and
other uses. Currently, the only United States hut sys-
tem of any significance is one maintained by the
Appalachian Mountain Club in New Hampshire’s
White Mountain National Forest. The Club’s system
of eight huts provides bunkroom lodging and staff-
served meals. During nonsummer months, hikers
provide their own bedding and meals, although an
Appalachian Mountain Club caretaker may be
present.

Attitudes toward developing more hut systems in
the United States are mixed. Persons in favor of
developing overnight hut systems cite hiker con-
venience and more effective management, while those
opposed to hut systems feel that such facilities con-
tribute to a lower quality backcountry experience and
do not belong on public lands.

Alternative facilities that could provide similar
types of opportunities are hostels on private lands
linked by travel routes across public lands. Hostels
are a European travel lodging system that lies some-
where between camping and the motel-hotel system.
The hostel movement has become an international

movement and has spread to 49 nations.

More than 4,500 hostels are now in operation
worldwide where traveling members can find a dor-
mitory bunk and communal kitchen. These hostels
include barns, castles, homes, old churches, railroad
stations, hotels, a three-masted sailing ship, and even
a former city jail. So far, however, growth of United
States hostels has been slow with few hostels outside
the Northeast and North Central regions. Of the
present 194 hostels chartered in the United States, 81
are actually motels or hotels which give hostelers a
discount.

The projected growth of the recreational properties
market also has definite ramifications for the use of
forest and range lands. Currently, about 3.5 million
families in the United States own vacation homes,
which receive approximately 700 million person-days
of use a year. Present estimates are that between 12
and 15 million recreation lots, representing 6 million
acres of land, have been subdivided in the United
States.3¢ It is estimated that only one-third to one-
half of these lots have been sold. Regional trends in
the supply of recreational lots can be inferred from
statistics on recreational land projects containing
more than 50 lots and marketed to consumers outside
the State in which they are located. Figures suggest
that 82 percent of these projects are located in the
western and southern United States with half of all
recreational land projects in four States: Florida,
Texas, Arizona, and California.

Most vacation home developments are located
within or near environmentally attractive areas and
can have significant impacts on those areas, especially
on lands that are publicly owned. For example, prop-
erties in close proximity to public land, such as those
set aside for wilderness, are especially appealing to
developers who assume that this land will remain in
an undeveloped primitive state. While these locations
ensure that a wide variety of recreational opportuni-
ties are available to the recreational property owner,
they can create problems for others. Impacts which
can result include environmental problems, such as
pollution, man-caused fires, the disruption of wild-
life, and increased use pressure on public lands; the
visual impacts of roadways and power, pipe, and
communication lines; and administrative problems,
such as impacts on resource management activities,
increased administrative costs, and obstacles to land
acquisition.

Equally important are the impacts of recreational
property development on local communities. Often,
local governments can derive substantial revenues
from new developments, while the initial costs of util-

36Ragatz, R. L., op. cit.

ities, roads, police and fire protection, and other ser-
vices are low. These costs can be expected to rise over
time, however. In the case of schools, educational
costs may exceed tax revenues if an influx of families
with school-aged children occurs. Other local impacts
may include the lack of commercial and industrial
bases from which rural governments can draw taxes,
and perhaps most significantly of all, the transfor-
mation of traditional rural cultures and lifestyles
(which attract the property owner in the first place) to
a more urban environment.

Water activities — Over 12 million recreation boats
are owned and used in the United States (table 3.9).
This represents an increase of 34 percent between
1973 and 1976. The North Central region experienced
the largest increases in recreational boat ownership,
followed by the Pacific Northwest.

One factor associated with the increasing interest in
the use of water for outdoor recreation is the reduc-
tion of pollution in many waterways. This has been
achieved by legislation such as the Water Quality Act
of 1965 and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendment of 1972. The improvement of recrea-
tional opportunities through pollution abatement has
been particularly significant near urban areas. Other
probable factors stimulating participation in water-
based recreation include the seemingly crowded condi-
tions associated with other alternative recreational
activities; rising energy prices and uncertain supplies
that have focused attention on close-to-home recrea-
tional pursuits; a growing number of books, maga-
zines, films, and advertisements about water-related
activities; and growth in the number of boat liveries
and commercial outfitters that provide relatively in-
expensive services.

Presently, it is virtually impossible to fully assess
the supply situation for water activities in the United
States. Despite attempts by States to define their
water resources in statewide comprehensive outdoor
recreation plans, inventory data frequently are based
on varying assumptions and definitions. Conse-
quently, data cannot be aggregated among States and
collection agencies. Supply data seldom reflect the
suitability of the water for various recreational activi-
ties and pursuits.

One may, however, assume that nearly all of the
Nation’s 2 million rivers and streams are available for
recreational use, either for direct or indirect water
activities. This supply of waterways totals more than
3.2 million linear miles. Approximately 30,000 miles
of that total have been displaced by reservoirs. This
condition often has resulted in conflicting viewpoints
among persons with varying perspectives as to
appropriate use of available resources. In some areas

87

Table 3.9 — Ownership of recreational boats in
the contiguous United States, 1976, percent
increase from 1973, by section and region

Ownership of
recreational boats

Increase
from 1973
to 1976

Section and region

Thousands | Thousands | Percent

North:

Northeast’ Teas

North Central 58.5
Total 4,790 6,410
South:

Southeast 1,340 1,750

South Central ny a 8) 2,310
Total 3,050 4,060

Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains

Pacific Coast:
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest

Total

430 630
670 860

9,510 12,750

‘Includes Washington, D.C.

Source: Personal Communication (A. J. Marmo) Policy Planning and Informa-
tion Analysis Staff, Office of Boating Safety, United States Coast Guard, Depart-
ment of Transportation.

Total contiguous
United States

—particularly parts of the Pacific Southwest and
South Central regions — the modification of drainage
patterns in this way has been well accepted, because it
has led to increased variety and diversity of recrea-
tional opportunities.

Strong public pressure to preserve rivers and
streams with high scenic and recreational values cur-
rently exists. This is evident by the inclusion of many
rivers under Federal and State river preservation
programs. The National Wild and Scenic Rivers Act
of 1968 designated eight rivers (or portions thereof)
as the nucleus of a National Wild and Scenic Rivers
System and designated 27 other rivers to be studied as
potential additions (fig. 3.6). Since that time, addi-
tional amendments to the Act have added other rivers
to the System as well as designating additional rivers
for study as potential components of the System.

As of January 1978, 28 rivers or river segments
totalling 2,318 miles were in the National Wild and
Scenic Rivers System. Forty-eight additional rivers
also were being considered as potential components
of the System. Principal management responsibilities
rest with the Forest Service, National Park Service,
and the Bureau of Land Management, as well as
State governments. Pressures to preserve more rivers
under this program will likely continue.

88

There is strong public pressure to preserve rivers and streams with
high scenic and recreation values.

In addition to the National System, 24 States have
authorized wild and scenic river systems. The most
recent was established by South Carolina in 1974. To
date, about 20 States have designed over 120 rivers.
All of the States have identified at least some poten-
tial candidates. Programs range from active, dynamic
planning programs to minimal efforts at initiating
such programs.

Besides those rivers reserved under Federal and
State programs, thousands of other waterways
throughout the country have considerable potential
for river recreational use— many of which could
offer the user the feeling of being in a relatively wild
place. Many of these rivers and streams are located
on public lands, particularly on the National Forests.

The continued popularity of rivers, streams, lakes,
and reservoirs for recreation has created conflicts and
problems not only for users and managers, but also
for many segments of society. Frequent debates have
centered around the appropriate use of water re-
sources. Efforts to curb pollution and to improve
water quality have been based partly on demands for
recreation. Also common are the conflicts between
recreational uses and nonrecreational uses of water
such as commercial fishing and trapping, transporta-
tion, hydropower, irrigation, water supply, and

Figure 3.6

National Wild and Scenic Rivers System, September 1, 1979

As Authorized by P.L. 90-542 as Amended

Yama. V hem. Ly suacee
[oS Se oe
FATHER @ | | j
ee

Y aloe r i
? \ wenne 9 i

SALTO

waste-water treatment. Other conflicts that have
arisen among recreational uses and nonrecreational
riparian uses take place with regard to forest indus-
tries, mining, agriculture, and residential land use.

New problems, both social and environmental,
have been created by the increased number of recrea-
tional users. Many rivers, reservoirs, and lakes are
faced with accelerated and unregulated shoreline
development which could degrade water quality, re-
strict public access, and impair natural beauty. In-
creased recreational use may adversely affect plants,
birds, and animals along rivers. Erosion of banks,
campsites, and boat landings is a common problem in
some locations. Growth in use without proper admin-
istration may result in more littering and vandalism
to public and private property along waterways. The
extent of sanitation, maintenance, and law enforce-
ment may also be expected to increase.

UPPER
mississippi ™ uh

a TWA TAC mssnanse

bassoon ka

K
GASCONADE A

\ <PLORADO 4,-- SMITE oe VAI
\ GUNNISON :
TuOLu! '
ME te | aoe. LOS PINOS @ f
\ erases: meme fae “7 Cones Se i
KERN @ \ aa PiEpRAS ote se eee

\o *
Source: U.S. Department of the Interior

Heritage Conservation and Recreation Service

ALLAGASH tx

A
F(CoMERO

5
e

Management or Study Responsibility
Ww U.S. Department of the Interior

@ U.S. Department of Agriculture

4& Army Corps of Engineers

tr State/Local

Periodic crowding on some waterways may lessen
the enjoyment of some users. Even small changes in
the densities and kinds of river uses could greatly
influence the quality of experiences for some visitors.
In fact, people seeking low-density use and a solitary
enjoyment of nature may be displaced altogether.
Conversely, crowds appeal to some people, and cer-
tain river users may also enjoy the sociability
afforded by crowds.

Recreational use often generates other conflicts in
addition to crowding. Conflicts have arisen between
anglers and boaters, between motorized and non-
motorized boaters, and between recreationists and
private landowners. As uses increase, conflicts will
probably grow and so will debate over how to
mediate such conflicts.

Probably the most serious and immediate water
recreation management problems involve conflicts

89

among and between recreational users and nonrecre-
ational users. These problems are acute for managers
of public lands — particularly the Forest Service and
Bureau of Land Management. Problems are chang-
ing fast, faster than techniques are being developed to
cope with them, and probably faster than changes to
the natural, biological system resulting from recrea-
tional use. Unfortunately, less is known about river,
reservoir, and lake users than about their impact on
the physical resources.3”

In the absence of full documentation of recrea-
tional use, many decisions have been made intuitively
by recreation planners and managers to minimize
problems and to maintain quality recreational oppor-
tunities. For example, some States in the North Cen-
tral region have found it necessary to limit the time of
day that motorboats may be operated on some lakes
in order to assure anglers that they can enjoy reason-
ably safe and productive fishing experiences. In
numerous other situations, waters have been zoned to
provide or to limit various boating activities. Also,
use rationing on rivers through limitations on camp-
ing and open fires, party-size restrictions, limitations
on length of stay, and other use restrictions have been
imposed or are anticipated. Daily launch limitations
(controlling the number of groups permitted to start
per day at an access point) and party-size restrictions
are common measures for controlling use on about 30
rivers or river segments in the United States.38 Some
management strategies seem to have worked well and
have gained public support; many others have not.
Managerial action frequently has been reflected both
in dissatisfied recreational users and in litigation by a
variety of recreation interests.

Snow and ice activities — Snow and ice activities
attract participants from all regions of the country.
However, individuals from the Rocky Mountains and
Great Plains region and the Pacific Coast are more
likely to participate in downhill skiing, while individ-
uals located in the Northeast and North Central
regions are more frequent participants in ice skating
and sledding.3° For activities like snowmobiling and
cross-country skiing, persons living in the Rocky
Mountains and Great Plains, North Central, and
Northeast have participation levels greater than those
in other regions.

37 Anderson, Dorothy H., Earl C. Leatherberry, and David W.
Lime. Annotated bibliography on river recreation. USDA For.
Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC41, North Central For. Exp. Sta., St.
Paul, Minn. 62 p. 1978.

38 McCool, Stephen F., David W. Lime, and Dorothy H. Ander-
son. Simulation model as a tool for managing river recreation.
USDA Forest Service. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-28, North Central For.
Exp. Sta., St. Paul, Minn. 8 p. 1977.

391977 National Outdoor Recreation Survey, op. cit.

90

These cold weather activities attract a cross section
of people, with a growing number of families and
older individuals becoming participants. These trends
are supported by the 1977 National Outdoor Recrea-
tion Survey*® which showed that downhill skiing,
cross-country skiing, and snowmobiling were among
the top activities that individuals who are not cur-
rently participants would like to try in the future
(table 3.1). A national survey of the skiing market
conducted by the Forest Service in 1978 indicated
that 11 million adults are active downhill skiers.4!
Also, about 4 million adults participate in cross-
country skiing.

The supply of snow and ice recreational activities
can be divided into two basic types. Developed
opportunities are provided for such activities as
downhill skiing and ice skating in winter sports com-
plexes which often charge fees for the use of their
facilities. For example, the cost of a lift ticket for a
day of downhill skiing ranges from $8 to $16. These
developed areas vary in size from small community
facilities to major corporate ventures which support
communities and serve international clientele. Dis-
persed cold weather recreational opportunities in-
clude activities such as cross-country skiing, snow-
mobiling, snowshoeing, mountaineering, ice fishing,
and general snow play in undeveloped areas. Access,
parking, sanitation facilities, trails, weather and
safety information are normally needed for these
activities.

For downhill skiing, the supply of facilities de-
pends on suitable access, terrain, and weather con-
ditions that will give adequate snowfall. In some
cases, snowmaking machines are used to extend the
season or range. There are 2,246 ski lifts in the United
States of which 1,337 are aerial (table 3.10). Forty-
one percent are located in the Northeast and 22 per-
cent in the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains States.
The Forest Service, the largest public supplier of
downhill skiing opportunities, has 30 percent of all
the Nation’s ski lifts operating under permit by
concessioners.

The number of ski lifts is not, however, an accurate
measure of the downhill skiing opportunities or the
capacity of a region. A long lift going to the top of a
steep hill provides a longer ride and a more challeng-
ing skiing experience than does a short lift to the top
of a gentle hill. The concept of “vertical transport
feet” has been developed to provide a more meaning-
ful interpretation of capacity.

The measurement of lift capacity in terms of verti-

401977 National Outdoor Recreation Survey, op. cil.
4! LaPage, W., and Standley, S. Growth potential of the skier
market. USDA For. Serv. (In press).

cal transport feet reveals a different pattern of relative
downhill skiing opportunities among the regions
(table 3.10). Because longer lifts and steeper moun-
tains are common to the western States, these States
generally produce more capacity per lift than lifts
located elsewhere. For example, while the Rocky
Mountain and Great Plains region has 22 percent of
the total number of lifts, this represents 34 percent of
the capacity in vertical transport feet. Similarly, the
National Forest percentage of capacity in vertical
transport feet increases from 30 percent for the
number of lifts to 54 percent of the national study.

A cross-country ski trail network has been devel-
oped in the last 10 years through the efforts of public
agencies and private enterprise. Much of this trail
system is comprised of those snow-covered roads and
hiking trails used by both cross-country skiers and
snowmobilers. Although in some areas snow- and
cross-country skiers recreate in relative harmony, in
others the quiet recreational encounter sought by
some skiers is disrupted by passing snowmobiles. The
creation of specially designed trails on some public
lands for cross-country skiing reflects the sensitivity
of land managers to this situation. Altogether, the
supply of trails for cross-country skiing totals 3,442
miles on National Forest lands. So far, these trails
have been relatively inexpensive to construct.

Despite the significant progress made in the last
decade, prospects for increasing opportunities for
snow and ice recreation are not all favorable. The
most controversial issue deterring further develop-
‘ment is the allocation of public lands for specific uses.
An example is the development of downhill skiing
facilities. National and local groups have effectively
prevented the development of most new ski areas on
public land from being approved. Initially, ski area
developments were not controversial, because they
were few in number and did not create major impacts.
It was not until the sixties that such impacts as exten-
sive private land development, the need for expanded
community services, and environmental damage were
noticed. Since then, planning and construction
controls have lessened direct environmental effects of
developed ski slopes.

Current issues concerning new developments on
public lands relate less to the site itself than to the
overall character changes in the area. These issues
include such impacts as development encroachment
on unroaded or undeveloped areas of public land,
development of new communities and changes in
existing ones, proliferation of second-home develop-
ments, and the effects of these developments on water
and air quality. Coupled with these concerns is the
long planning period required on public lands for

these types of developments. Figure 3.7 illustrates the
timing and extent of various aspects of planning,
financing, and construction that are necessary to
develop a major resort under current conditions ona
National Forest. The cost of planning a development
of this type is estimated to be over $500,000, exclud-
ing private land options and carrying costs. Overall
costs to the investors for a 4-year planning effort at
Ski Yellowstone, Mont., was reported in 1978 to be
$2 million. Those individuals have no assurance of
any return on their investment.

Because of these development issues, construction
of winter sport complexes featuring downhill skiing
has slowed on public lands. Only one new site, Beaver
Creek, Colo., is scheduled to open in 1980, and it has
been in the planning stage since 1970. The future of
other areas in various phases of planning is uncertain.
Several key areas that have undergone intensive analy-
sis will probably not be developed in the foreseeable
future because of land-use conflicts or the inability of
the private sector to continue studies and investment
with little hope of a return. Until land-use allocation
questions are resolved, most ski lift expansion will
have to occur within existing special-use permit areas
or on private lands.

The problems associated with increasing opportuni-
ties for dispersed snow and ice activities differ from
the developed ones. Although land-use allocations
can significantly affect such activities as snow-
mobiling, environmental effects and social impacts
caused by cross-country skiing and snowmobiling are
relatively minor when compared to winter sport
complexes. However, with increasing interest in these
activities, a loss in solitude and more frequent dis-
ruptions of wildlife are occurring in some locations.
Also, conflicts have arisen between cross-country ski-
ers, snowmobilers, recreationists, and private land-
owners, particularly those whose land adjoins public
lands. Some of these problems occur because rights-
of-way currently used by snowmobilers and cross-
country skiers are informal and without full legal
status. Also, there is a concern, especially in the north-
eastern States, that access to private lands for snow-
mobiles and cross-country skiers may be curtailed.
Rights-of-way, agreements with States for payment,
and insurance have reduced this concern, but a long
term problem still exists.

Snow avalanches, which are killing an increasing
number of snowmobilers, cross-country skiers, moun-
tain climbers, and others each year, constitute
another growing problem. Research findings attrib-
ute this increase to one cause. More and more people
are venturing into steep mountain terrain. With the
desire to get away from crowds and ski lift expenses,

91

Table 3.10 — Total number of ski lifts and lift capacity operating in the United States by land

Section, region

and State

North:
Northeast:
Connecticut
Delaware

District of Columbia

Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont

West Virginia

Total

North Central:
Illinois
Indiana
lowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Ohio
Wisconsin

Total
Total, North

South:

Southeast:
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia

Total

South Central:
Alabama
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas

Total

Total, South

92

ownership, section, region, and State, 1978

Forest Service land Other

Aerial_surface Aerial_surface

Number Millions Millions Number Millions
13 11 ee 0 0 0 0 13 11 6.9 a heyé
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.5
23 32 17.4 11.8 3 0 1.9 0 20 32 15.5 11.8
2 3 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 2 3 0.8 0.8
PX 55 14.9 10.5 0 0 0 0 27 55 14.9 10.5
64 59 48.0 13.6 19 5 Al 1.1 45 54 30.9 12.5
21 3 9.9 0.4 0 0 0 0 21 3 9.9 0.4
112 175 67.2 36.8 0 0 0 0 112 175 67.2 36.8
68 68 30.6 11.6 0 0 0 0 68 68 30.6 11.6
3 2 0.6 0.6 0 0 0 0 3 2 0.6 0.6
95 70 88.4 18.9 30 8 22.0 2.1 65 62 66.4 16.8
6 5 4.7 0.5 0 0 0 0 6 5 4.7 0.5
289.4 107.7 41.0 32 | 382 471 | 248.4 104.5
0.3 2:5 0.3

0 122 0 12

0.4 1.3 0.4

38.5 9.6

8.0 15.5 8.0

0 0.1 0 0.1

2.3 15 5.8 2.3

35 22.8 8.1

0.8 257 157 30.0

d 134.5
0

0

0.6

0

0.6

1.2

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0.3 0

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

0 0 1.9 0.1

0) 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

b 2.2 0.1

Table 3.10 — Total number of ski lifts and lift capacity operating in the United States by land
ownership, section, region, and State, 1978 — continued

Total
Section, region
and State

Forest Service land Other

VR

Aerial surface |Aerial surface | Aerial surface| Aerial surface | Aerial surface} Aerial surface

p Millions
Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains:

Arizona 4.3 0.7
Colorado 172.9 8.8
Idaho 48.2 7.5
Montana 23.7 10.6
Nebraska 0.4 0.1
Nevada 7.3 2.9
New Mexico 19.4 4.3

0 0.5
2.2

North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming

Total

Pacific Northwest:
Alaska
Oregon
Washington

Number Millions Millions
F 0.6 3 1 2.6 0.1
136.4 6.1 29 20 36.5 2.7
44.0 3.8 5 9 4.2 3.7
20.0 4.8 4 8 Salt 5.8
0 0 1 2 0:4 0.1
3.4 0.8 7 9 3.9 2.1
3.6 7 5 3.9 0.7
0 3 0 0.5
6 10 3.4 1.8
9 3 29.2 1.6
3 5 3.4 0.9
91.2 20.0
eth 1.0
1.0 0.3
4.5 0.6

Pacific Southwest:
California
Hawaii

ee a 135. ; 10. - i oR is le ; - = 35.2 3.7
0 0

Total, Pacific Coast

Total, United States

1.337 909 | 909 |973.0 202.6 511 158 | 487.3 41.2 485.7 161.4

Vertical transport feet (V.T.F.H.) is an expression of capacity. One vertical transport foot is the capacity to raise one skier vertically one foot per hour.
Source: Dufresne - Henry Engineering Corporation. United States ski area growth statistics 1963-1977. North Springfield.

many people are entering areas that previously had
not seen a climber, skier, or snowmobiler. With more
people taking risks, the number of avalanche victims
can only increase as long as information and manage-
ment controls are inadequate.

Implications of Supply
and Demand Comparisons

The substantial growth in outdoor recreational
participation projected for all the activities studied in
this assessment has important implications for the
future use of the Nation’s forest and range lands. In
the past, the supply of outdoor recreational oppor-
tunities has been generally sufficient to meet public
demands for a variety of recreational experiences.
Both the public and private sectors have made impor-
tant contributions in providing a wide variety of
recreational opportunities.

Future expansion of the Nation’s recreational re-
sources will be necessary, however, if adequate oppor-
tunities are to be ensured. Demand for snow and ice
activities is expected to show the most pronounced
increase, closely followed by water and then land
activities. For land activities, projections suggest
large increases in participation in the South Central
and Pacific Southwest regions, whereas modest
increases can be expected in the Northeast and North
Central States. For snow and ice activities, most
regions in the North and West exhibit increases, espe-
cially the Pacific Southwest region.

These trends suggest that cleaner water, a greater
number of capital-intensive facility complexes, such
as those for winter sports, and the preservation of
large acreages of natural environment are some of the
management concerns that will grow in importance
as demands for outdoor recreational opportunities
increase. Without sufficient increases in supply, lim-

93

Figure 3.7

Development Schedule for a Major New Ski Resort

Development
Phases

Forest Sub-Area
Plans

Roadless Area
Study

Preliminary Consul-

Year 1

Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6

Considers Time for Studies, Environmental
Statements and Administrative Review Process

Roadless Areas Are Involved in Most
New or Expansion Opportunities

Year 7

tant Study

Winter Ski
Potential Studies

Environmental
Studies-Site
Specific, Off Site &
Socio-Economic

Site Specific En-
vironmental State- Sade,
ment and State

Review Processes

Conceptual

ha i ae,

Issue Special

Conceptual Administrative
Plans Reviews

Final Environmental Administrative
Impact Statement Appeal

Plan Overall Project

a. Base and
Village Plan

b. Mountain
Plan

Finance

Construction .

Final Approval

Design and Engineering Construction

Arrange Financing for Facilities, Construction, Etc.

Surveys Trails Foundations Final Open
Site Development Construction

itations on outdoor recreational opportunities will
constrain future participation and could lead to deg-
radation of both the physical resource and the recrea-
tional experiences it supports.

Traditionally, public lands have provided numer-
ous recreational opportunities. However, increasing
needs for water, minerals, energy, and other forest
and range products require that the recreational use
of these lands vie with other important resource uses.
If the public sector is to continue to provide recrea-
tional experiences, future plans for the management
of public lands must recognize that outdoor recrea-
tion has values commensurate with those of other
resource elements.

It has become apparent, however, that public lands
alone cannot bear the burden which increased
demands for outdoor recreation opportunities are
placing of them. Even now, the supply of outdoor
recreation appears to be limited. The 1977 National

94

Outdoor Recreation Survey identified several factors
affecting participation in outdoor recreation. One of
the most frequently cited reasons for not participat-
ing was the crowded conditions encountered*? (table
3.11). Other important reasons included the incon-
venience of engaging in outdoor recreational activi-
ties, polluted and poorly maintained conditions, and
the lack of information about available outdoor
recreational opportunities.

In the future, private lands must provide a larger
share of outdoor recreation experiences. In the past,
the problems which recreationists create for private
landowners, the inability of the private sector to
compete financially with public recreation opera-
tions, and other factors have limited the availability
of private lands for recreational use. Actions to

encourage private investment and involve private

*2U.S. Department of the Interior, Heritage, Conservation and
Recreation Service, op. cit.

Table 3.11 — Percent of population not participating in outdoor recreation in the United States
by reasons and region
(Percent)

Crowded
Money
Information

Home recreation
Convenience
Pollution

Interest

Poor maintenance
Health
Transportation
Safety

Other

North South
tt a pe

Rocky

Mountains Pacific Pacific
and Great | Northwest | Southwest
Plains

29.7
21.1
26.4
25.3
16.4
18.3
19.2
19.4
20.8

Source: U.S. Department of Interior, Heritage, Conservation and Recreation Service. 1977 national outdoor recreation plan. (In process).

Many National Forests and other lands have designated trails or
areas for snowmobiles. This is necessary to protect the environment
and interests of other users.

landowners in outdoor recreation enterprises will be
necessary if the private sector is to expand its role asa
supplier of outdoor recreation.

Failure to provide for the prospective growth in
demand for outdoor recreation could have impacts
on economic development. The production and con-
sumption of recreational goods and services have
economic effects at all levels — National, State, and
local — and in a variety of forms. Industries produc-
ing recreational goods and services — from vacation
homes to fishing poles to skiing vacations — stimu-
late local economies with their business revenues,
employment, payrolls, and profits. The resultant cash
flows create a rippling effect throughout the economy
as earnings are spent on other goods and services by
businesses and employees alike. These revenues, in
turn, provide a tax base from which moneys for the
support of the local, State, and Federal governments
are derived; part of these funds are used to further
provide public recreation services.

In conjunction with direct sales of recreational
goods and services, expenditures accruing to outdoor
recreational travel are especially beneficial for local
economies. Small communities that are dependent on
tourism derive income and jobs from the money spent
by recreationists on gasoline, lodging, food, equip-
ment, and various services. A National Travel
Expenditure Model developed by the United States
Travel Data Center indicates that expenditures for
outdoor recreation totalled $11 billion, or 11 percent
of total expenditures for trips over 200 miles round
trip within the United States.43

4U.S. Travel Data Center. 1976 National travel expenditure

study: Summary report. Washington, D.C. 110 p. 1977.

95

Related areas of economic development sometimes
have substantial impacts on local or State economies
by the sale of recreational properties and second
homes. The Office of Interstate Land Sales Regula-
tion has estimated the national annual sales of recrea-
tional property at roughly $5.5 billion.44 The growth
of this market is most dramatic in areas close to
recreational amenities which have caused land values
to climb sharply. Summit County, Colo., for in-
stance, has experienced skyrocketing land values
from $500 to $8,500 an acre and higher. When these
properties are in use, the spending of the seasonal
residents can further stimulate the local economy. It
is estimated that some 3.5 million second-home
households contribute $5.2 billion annually to rural
economies where these expenditures are especially
significant.

Individual and social benefits of outdoor recrea-
tional participation are more difficult to measure, but
are equally important for the social well-being of the
American public. These benefits include the work-
time gained from avoiding such health problems as
heart attacks due to greater individual participation
in recreation; the lower incidence of crime, especially
among youths, because of the availability of outdoor
recreation sites, facilities, and programs; and the
saved costs to society in health care resulting froma
more physically fit population.**

One physical benefit of recreation participation is
the equilibrium ensured by the rest and relaxation it
provides. Research has indicated that escape from the
stresses of the home, neighborhood, and job is a
prime motivation for recreational participation.*®
Strenuous physical activities, such as swimming or
cross-country skiing, serve as relaxing outlets for the
tension or relief from the boredom often experienced
on the job.

Participation in outdoor recreational activities can
also promote feelings of competency and _ self-
fulfillment and, in turn, psychological balance. These
benefits are enhanced by the significant educational
opportunities that outdoor activities offer. The
achievement of making discoveries, taking risks, and
meeting challenges in the outdoors improves the indi-

44 American Society of Planning Officials with contributions
from the Conservation Foundation, Urban Land Institute, and
Richard L. Ragatz Associates, Inc. Subdividing rural America:
Impacts of recreation lot and second-home development. Prepared
for the Council of Environmental Quality, Department of Housing
and Urban Development, and the Appalachian Regional Commis-
sion. Gov. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 139 p. 1976.

45 Newsweek. Keeping fit: America tries to shape up.
89(21):7886.

46 For a review of such studies, see Driver, B. L., and R. C.
Knopf. Temporary escape, one product of sport fisheries manage-
ment. Fisheries 9(2):21, 24-29. 1976.

96

People of all ages benefit from participating in outdoor recreation
activities.

vidual’s self-concept and self-reliance.” Evidence that
these individual benefits are highly valued can be
found in the growing enrollments in such nationally
known outdoor experience schools as Outward
Bound and the National Outdoor Leadership School
as well as in numerous other private and school-
sponsored courses.

Similarly, social benefits are derived from the
social interaction which is often an integral part of
the outdoor recreational experience. The affiliation
experienced through recreational pursuits fosters per-
sonal development, while the family solidarity pro-
moted by shared recreational experiences is basic to
social stability.48 In a society of increasing transient
and short term relationships among people, outdoor
recreation can provide a common ground which facil-
itates meaningful interaction among individuals.
Outdoor recreation thus provides a means for old
friends to strengthen emotional ties while creating
opportunities for making new friends.

47 Harris, D. V. Perceptions of self. Research Camping and
Environmental Education. HPER Series II, The University of
Pennsylvania, University Park, Pa. 1977.

48 Yoesting, D. R., and D. L. Burkhead. Significance of child-
hood recreation experiences on adult leisure behavior: An explana-
tory analysis. Journal of Leisure Research 5(1):2536. 1976.

Opportunities for Increasing the Supply
of Outdoor Recreation

It is clear that efforts on the part of both the public
and private sectors will be necessary to ensure the
availability of a wide range of outdoor recreational
opportunities on forest and range lands and achieve
the benefits described above. Presently, over half of
the individuals in the Nation feel that outdoor recrea-
tion is a “very important” activity.49 However, these
individuals have a wide variety of motivations, inter-
ests, and desires regarding their recreational pursuits.

There are several major opportunities for realizing
the full recreational potential of the Nation’s forest
and range lands. These opportunities include the
continued development of the recreation resource,
the improved use of the resource, more extensive and
effective cooperative activities to enhance the re-
souces on private lands and their use, and the
development of an improved information base for
managerial decision-making.

Development of outdoor recreation resource —The
greatest opportunity for realizing the recreation
potential of lands already used for recreational pur-
poses is the further development of such facilities as
trails, campgrounds, picnic areas, and boat ramps.
Facility development, when planned and accomp-
lished properly, can contribute to an increase in the
quantity, quality, and availability of outdoor recrea-
tion opportunities. With proper design and manage-
ment, these new developments can reduce conflicts
among recreationists, minimize damage to other
resources, and provide for user convenience and
safety. In particular, recreation management must
consider the special needs of the elderly and handi-
capped. As called of for in the Architectural Barriers
Act (P.L. 90-480 as amended), an appropriate
number of facilities must be made available to special
populations.

Trails are an example of a development that can
serve a spectrum of uses. The design of a trail and the
extent of its maintenance can function to regulate the
kinds and intensity of use it receives. Trails that qual-
ify can be designated under the National Trails Sys-
tem Act.

The designation of a trail is a way to promote pub-
lic knowledge of a trail’s existence and availability
and to ensure that the trail meets certain construction
and management standards. New trails can be devel-
oped by taking advantage of abandoned railroad
grades, old canal banks, pipelines, utility line rights-

49U.S. Department of the Interior, Heritage, Conservation, and
Recreation Service, op. cit.

of-way, highway corridors, abandoned roads, and
undeveloped lands.

Numerous other types of recreational develop-
ments could help meet the growing demands for a
broad range of recreational opportunities. For in-
stance, boat ramps and designated beaches could
provide for participation in water activities. In addi-
tion, National Forest and public lands could provide
camp areas for such groups as senior citizens and
clubs and also day camps to serve young underprivi-
leged urbanites.

Innovative management actions focusing on facil-
ity development could include renovation of surplus
buildings to create a national system of hostels. Such
a system would enable people of all ages to enjoy the
outdoors through hiking, cycling, skiing, canoeing,
and other recreational activities. Moreover, winter
sports complexes could be redesigned to provide a
mix of recreational opportunities. For instance, a
variety of activities, including downhill and cross-
country skiing, skating and snowmobiling, might be
served by the same parking, sanitation, and lodging
facilities. These areas also could support other forms
of recreation during the nonskiing season.

Opportunities to improve use of the resource —
Equally important to providing new recreational
developments is the provision for the proper main-
tenance of existing ones. Progressive site deteriora-
tion on public lands continues to be a problem, espe-
cially at heavily used camping and picnic areas.
Rehabilitation programs could aid in solving this
problem.

Increasing recreation pressures on forest and range
lands could also be eased through efforts ensuring
that the recreation resource is used to its fullest
potential. Management actions are needed to pro-
mote use which is both more evenly distributed over
the available resource acreage and productive of the
most satisfying recreation experiences possible.

Improving access to the Nation’s forest and range
lands and waters is one such management action.
Lack of public access is often a major obstacle to
participation in dispersed and other types of recre-
ational activities. Florida seems to typify the situation
in many States. There are more than 12,000 miles of
streams throughout the State, and 21 canoeing routes
have been designated and publicized by the Depart-
ment of Natural Resources. Planners there feel that
limited public access currently is the main deterrent
to further site development. Expanded public access
is particularly needed in densely populated urban
areas where access often is tightly controlled.

In many areas, expanded access through public
ownership of rights-of-way seems to be the best

97

chance to increase and extend resources available for
outdoor recreational activities. For example, addi-
tional rights-of-way and land acquisition are needed
in the Northeast to continue its network of cross-
country ski trails.

Providing improved information and education
opportunities for outdoor recreationists is also an
important opportunity for improving the use of forest
and range lands. An informed, educated public could
result in more self-regulation and greater user satis-
faction. Public information on where to go, how to
get there, and what conditions to expect could be
provided in the form of maps, signs, and verbal
communication. Information could also be made
readily available to visitors by establishing informa-
tion arrival stations, dispensing pamphlets, bulletins,
and cassette tapes.

Opportunities to improve cooperative efforts —
Cooperative efforts by government agencies, private
interests, and individuals— whether in technical
assistance or coordinated planning — is one means by
which a greater abundance of recreational opportuni-
ties can be provided. In the past, the interest and
involvement of private individuals and organizations
at the grassroots level has helped to stimulate legisla-
tion resulting in the designation, development, and
protection of the recreation resource. The Appalachian
Mountain Club, for example, has been a constructive
force in developing and protecting the Appalachian
Trail, while other organizations like the American
Camping Association have generated pressures influ-
encing public policy on resource management.

A program to exchange technical information and
research findings can also help to improve recrea-
tional opportunities. Standards, technologies, and
designs developed by one agency that enhance recrea-
tional opportunities could be utilized by others.
Opportunities for expanding expertise include: the
establishment of management objectives to ensure the
maintenance of visual quality; the design and con-
struction of roads, trails, campgrounds, and winter
sports complexes to provide a variety of outdoor
experiences; and the modification of operations and
the provision of additional facilities to expand the
recreational use of reservoirs.

Equally important, private landowners can con-
tribute to the availability of lands suitable for recrea-
tion use. Some public corporations have opened their
forest and range lands to public recreation while con-
tinuing their business operations. These landowners
include the Southern Paper Corporation, which has
set aside several scenic “pocket wilderness” areas cov-
ering 1,636 acres and 29 miles of trail.

Forest industry organizations have also made

98

Improving access to forest and range lands and waters is one way of
meeting projected increases in demands.

significant contributions to the current recreation re-
source supply. The Texas Forest Association is one
such organization. Working with six forest product
companies and several individual landowners, it has
established a system of woodland trails throughout
eastern Texas.

However, more needs to be done if future demands
for outdoor recreation are to be met. Cooperative
Federal and State assistance to individual landowners
can help meet the growing future demand for recrea-
tion by adding to the recreation resource base. Nearly
two-thirds of the privately owned forest and range
lands in the United States is closed to the general
public for recreational use. To make this land more
accessible and to prevent future closure, problems
which now confront landowners must be reduced or
eliminated. Among owners with land not open to
public recreation, the most cited reason for closure
has been interference with other activities. Assistance
in activity coordination might help to open more
lands to users.

Other reasons for not opening private land to pub-
lic use have been property damage, disturbance of
privacy, and wildlife disturbance. Cooperative pro-
grams to reduce these problems and to promote the
expanded involvement of landowners could include
educating potential users on an appropriate “use

ethic” and providing stronger law enforcement and
regulatory measures.

In addition, more positive inducements for land-
owners could help realize an increase in the amount
of private lands offering recreational opportunities.
Possible inducements most frequently cited by pri-
vate landowners and government managers alike
include protection from lawsuits, advice on develop-
ment and operation, tax credit, and insurance (table
Sad):

Table 3.12 — Conditions under which landown-
ers would open land now closed to recreation
use in the United States, by condition and type
of ownership, 1978

(Percent of landowners)

Private ownership

Noncorporate

Conditions for opening lands

Under no conditions 39
To make a reasonable profit 20
With protection from lawsuits 16
With tax break incentive 4
To improve public relations 5
If income equals cost 4
If someone else managed 2
Provide insurance for

liability or loss 6
Other 4

Source: Cordell, H. Ken., Robert McLellan, Herbert Stevens, Gary Tyre, and
Michael Legg. Existing and potential recreation role of privately owned forest
and range lands in the United States: an assessment. (In process).

Research opportunities. — Effective planning and
national decisionmaking regarding proper resource
allocation and facility development is a necessity if
the Nation’s demands for outdoor recreation are to
be met. The effectiveness of these processes, however,
greatly depends upon the usefulness and accuracy of
the information available to resource planners and
managers. The inputs of decisionmakers at all man-
agement levels are necessary if the kinds of informa-
tion they need to perform more efficiently and effec-
tively are to be provided.

In general, better information is needed to describe
the existing and potential recreation resource, moni-
tor present participation trends, evaluate the outdoor
recreation experiences provided on forest and range
lands in terms of their social and economic implica-
tions, assess relative benefits of various management
actions, and provide methods to increase the contri-
bution the forest recreation resource can make to
improving the urban environment.

Better descriptive information is needed if a more
accurate understanding of both outdoor recreation

supply and demand is to be available at all decision-
making levels — local, regional, and national. On the
supply side, the managers’ knowledge of resource
capability and managerial suitability could be im-
proved with a continuing systematic survey of the
recreation resource with standards and specifications
used nationwide. Research is needed to develop
methods for inventorying those forest and range
lands available and suitable for outdoor recreation as
well as existing outdoor recreation facilities. Informa-
tion could also be provided which would help to
explain the effect of physical attributes of the
resource on specific recreation activity patterns, guide
data analysis and interpretation, and determine
future recreation supply patterns. Further, studies on
increasing the supply of recreation activities on pri-
vate land could further identify opportunities for
cooperation, as well as areas of conflict, between pub-
lic and private land management agencies.

On the demand side, a standardized, cost-effective
method of monitoring trends in use is necessary if
planning decisions are to be based on adequate
information concerning present and future participa-
tion levels. A comprehensive analysis of recreation
participation also involves evaluation of special
requirements for participation by particular popula-
tions. Research is needed to identify barriers which
deter participation in outdoor recreation by urban
populations, minority groups, and handicapped indi-
viduals, and the needs of these people must be more
fully considered in future recreation planning. Also,
the impacts of the changing energy situation need to
be studied.

Managerial decisions must also be guided by an
evaluation of the social and economic implications of
various management actions. Greater knowledge of
the social and economic benefits of outdoor recrea-
tion is needed if decisions concerning the allocation
of resources and funds are to meaningfully reflect the
values which people derive from various recreation
experiences.

Knowledge of recreation values is also necessary to
guide the coordination and integration of recreation
management with other resource uses. Evaluation
procedures for determining the tradeoffs being made,
in terms of the outdoor recreation and other resource
values foregone, are becoming increasingly important
as the need grows for integrating recreation uses of
forest and range land with other management activi-
ties. Basic to such a process is the determination of
the nonmarket values of recreation, for which the
state of the art lags far behind that for evaluating
market commodities such as timber.

Finally, it must be recognized that the outdoor
recreation resource is not confined to rural areas.

99

Trees in the city are becoming increasingly important
in upgrading the quality of an urban environment.
Open spaces, greenbelts, buffer strips, roadsides,
community parks, wooded residential and industrial
zones, expanding urban areas, and new communities
are all areas of forest recreation research. Many
potential benefits, including pleasant and serene
environments, increased natural beauty, cooling
shade, recreational opportunities, better air to
breathe, less street noise, protection from the winds,
and more birds and wildlife, are thought to be pro-
vided by the urban forest.

Here, additional research is needed to: assess the
human benefits from urban forests for recreation and
amenity values; develop methods to breed, select,
establish, maintain, and protect urban forests from
insects and diseases to improve human benefits, and
develop strategies to integrate sound urban forest
planning and management into the total urban plan-
ning and development process.

Wilderness

In the last few decades, the wilderness resource in
the United States has received increasing attention.
Recreation and other uses of wilderness have grown
substantially since World War II, while the land area
available for wilderness designation has been reduced
by development. In the last decade, few forest and
range issues have created as much interest and con-
troversy as the designation of forest and range land as
wilderness. This section presents information on
(1) the use of forest and range lands as wilderness and
(2) opportunities for meeting future demands for
wilderness.

The National Wilderness
Preservation System

Although the creation of Yellowstone National
Park and the Adirondack Forest Preserve were early
attempts to protect areas in the United States from
traditional development, the first wilderness area —
a half million acres in the headwaters of the Gila
River on the Gila National Forest in New Mexico —
was set aside in 1924 by the Secretary of Agriculture
in response to a proposal by Aldo Leopold. Other
areas were soon added and by 1940 the system com-
prised 73 areas.

Various groups sought more permanence in wil-
derness designations by proposing Federal legislation
to establish a national wilderness system. In response
to this interest, Congress passed the “Wilderness Act”
in 1964, which established a National Wilderness

100

Preservation System composed of Federally owned
lands designated as “wilderness areas.”

The 1964 Act required all of the areas which had
been classified under the Secretary of Agriculture
regulations as wilderness, wild, or canoe areas to be
designated as wilderness areas. The legislation di-
rected the Forest Service to review all National
Forest areas classified as “primitive” and make
recommendations to the President and Congress
within 10 years as to their suitability for preservation
in the national wilderness system. The Secretary of
the Interior was directed to review every roadless area
of 5,000 contiguous acres or more in the National
Parks, National Monuments, and National Wildlife
Refuges for possible inclusion in the National Wil-
derness Preservation System.

The Wilderness Act of 1964 also declared it to be
the policy of Congress “to secure for the American
people of present and future generations, the benefits
of an enduring resource of wilderness.” Congress
could designate federally owned areas to be “adminis-
tered for the use and enjoyment of the American peo-
ple in such a manner as will leave them unimpaired
for future use and enjoyment as wilderness . . .” The
Act states that wilderness is “an area where the earth
and its community of life are untrammeled by man,
where man himself is a visitor who does not remain.”
Wilderness is further defined in the Act as “an area of
undeveloped Federal land retaining its primeval
character and influence . . .” and which (1) generally
appears to have been affected primarily by the forces
of nature, with the imprint of man’s work substan-
tially unnoticeable; (2) has outstanding opportunities
for solitude or a primitive and unconfined type of
recreation; (3) has at least 5,000 acres of land or is of
sufficient size as to make practical its preservation
and use in an unimpaired condition, and (4) may also
contain ecological, geological, or other features of
scientific, educational, scenic, or historical value.”

In 1975, a Congressional Act, (P.L. 93622) estab-
lished 16 wildernesses with a total area of about
171,000 acres east of the 100th meridian. This Act
also designated 17 additional areas to be studied for
possible inclusion into the National Wilderness Pres-
ervation System. The 17 areas cover approximately
125,000 acres. The Act required that the studies be
completed and a report made to Congress within 5
years on their suitability.

As of July 1, 1979, 191 Federal wilderness areas
containing 19.0 million acres had been designated in
the United States (fig. 3.8). About 80 percent of this
area is administered by the Forest Service, 16 percent
by the National Park Service and 4 percent by the
Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition, 12,000 acres of

Figure 3.8

National Wilderness Preservation System, September 1,

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public land administered by the Bureau of Land
Management have been designated wilderness. As a
result of past land development patterns (or more
precisely, the lack of development), the designated
wilderness areas are concentrated in western States.
However, lands within the system, and those under
review and study, include areas from all of the major
forest and range land ecosystems represented in the
United States (table 3.13).

Recreational use of wilderness—In 1978, the
National Forest wildernesses received more than 8
million recreation visitor days of use or 4 percent of
all National Forest System recreation visitor days.
Recreation use on National Park and National Wild-
life Refuge wildernesses amounted to another several
hundred thousand recreation visitor days.

Wilderness recreation use must be kept at low den-
sity levels if unmodified natural conditions are to be
protected and if “outstanding opportunities for soli-
tude,” as described in the Wilderness Act, are to be

1979

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maintained. Present use of National Forest wilder-
ness units amounts to about one-half of a recreation
visitor day per acre per year. Wilderness managers of
different areas experiencing varying use pressures
suggest this average may be close to a desirable upper
limit for some wildernesses. Carrying capacity, how-
ever, is influenced by many factors, such as length of
season, number of access points, abundance of trails,
or other travel routes, number of camping areas,
attractions, fragility of soils and vegetation, and the
presence of wildlife sensitive to human use pressures.

The intensity of use varies greatly from wilderness
to wilderness. Two National Forest wildernesses each
reported about | million recreation visitor days of use
in 1978— The John Muir Wilderness in California
and the Boundary Waters Canoe Area in Minnesota.
In contrast, some wildernesses had only a few thou-
sand recreation visitor days of use. Estimated visitor
days per acre per year varied in 1978 from a high of
about 7 to a low of 0.04. Even allowing for variation

101

Table 3.13— Area of the National Wilderness Preservation System (NWPS) and endorsed
administration’ additions in the contiguous United States by ecosystem and managing
agency, July 1, 1979
(Acres)

NWPS proposals endorsed by
the Administration’

Existing NWPS units

Total

Ecosystem NWPS endorsed y

: National National |Fish and areas National National Fish and

units Forest Park Wildlife Forest Park Wildlife

Service Service Service Service Service Service

Forest land:
Eastern forest:
White-red-jack pine 565,837 563,510 0 2,327 2,830 2,830 0 0
Spruce-fir 418,658 250,230 131,880 36,548 235,976 39,070 195,500 1,406
Longleaf-slash pine 39,309 23,432 14,109 1,768 39,230 39,230 0
Loblolly-shortleaf pine 0 0 0 0 55,070 54,480 590
Oak-pine 115,670 26,990 79,579 9,101 80,153 79,990 163
Oak-hickory 125,229 98,420 10,529 16,280 268,681 174,180 90,191 4,310
Oak-gum-cypress 1,278,073 0 823,305 | 454,768 11,655 10,320 1,335
Elm-ash-cottonwood 7,275 0 q; re fs 5,800 5,800 9 0
Maple-beech-birch 61,030 61,001 270,281 152,660 117,000 621
Total 8,425
Western forest:

Douglas-fir 1,465,188 | 1,464,833 1,183,910 677,910 506,000 0
Ponderosa pine 1,507,068 1,390,444 : E 2,470,546 | 2,109,040 304,888 56,618
Western white pine 30,808 30,808 293,600 151,600 142,000 0
Fir-spruce 6,168,970 | 6,093,937 ; 7,328,799 | 3,661,195 | 3,667,604 0
Hemlock-sitka-spruce 0 0 2,439,900 | 2,199,900 240,000 0
Larch 484,337 484,337 0 0 0 0
Lodgepole pine 473,542 473,542 715,967 103,800 612,167 0
Redwood 25,047 4,751 20, oe 0 0 0
Western hardwoods Ts ec 77,025 26,700 26,700 0

Other forest:
Chapparal-mountain shrub 645,741 614,175 30,605 ae 503,890 466,890 37,000 0
Pinyon-juniper 270,311 202,591 67,720 1,210,459 650,875 383,874 175,710

Total 916,052 816,766 | 98,325 eal 1,714,349 | 1,117,765 420,084] 175,710
Total, forest land 13,759,118 | 11,860,026 | 1,375,243 | 523,849 | 17,143,447 | 10,606,470 | 6,296,224] 240,753

Range land:
Grasslands:
Plains grasslands 132,419 0 86,792 45,447 189,580 28,000 0 161,580
Prairie 12,315 12,315 0 49,219 8,400 0 40,819
Mountain grasslands 104,176 99,102 5,074 80,800 67,800 13,000 0
Desert grasslands 98,770 48,510 50,260 228,000 87,000 141,000 0
Wet grasslands 474,358 0 460,886 ; 6,345 0 440 5,905
Desert 30,243 0 30, an 24,000 24,000 0 0
Alpine 2,877,902 | 2,877,972 2,381,358 | 1,273,645 | 1,107,713 0
Total 208,304
Shrublands:
Sagebrush 163,707 118,357 13,000 1,772,689 385,920 86,000 | 1,300,769
Desert shrub 954,094 222,807 731,289 3,768,413 60,900 | 2,071,882 | 1,635,631
Southwestern shrubsteppe 149,929 30,046 79,975 511,250 5,000 506,250 0

Total 1,267,730 | 371,210] 824,262 | 72,258 | 6,052,352] 451,820 | 2,664,132 | 2,936,400
Total, range land | 4,997,983 | 3,409,109 | 1,457,697 9,011,654 | 1,940,665 | 3,926,285 | 3,144,704

Total, forest and
range land 18,757,101 | 15,269,135 | 2,832,940 | 655,026 |} 26,155,101 | 12,547,135 | 10,222,501 | 3,385,457

‘Administration endorsement is a position favoring the addition of land area to 2Includes 12,000 acres of Bureau of Land Management lands adjacent to
the National Wilderness Preservation System that reflects the support recom- National Park Service lands.
mendation of the White House, Office of Management and Budget, and the 3Includes 113 acres of Bureau of Land Management lands adjacent to National
Department of Agriculture and the Department of Interior. Park Service lands.

102

in capacity, it is clear that some wildernesses are
overused, while others could accommodate more use,
especially with effective management.

The most heavily visited wildernesses are those
located relatively close to large population centers.
Visitor surveys and analyses of visitor permits show
that, although some visitors come from the most dis-
tant corners of the country, most are within a few
hundred miles of their homes. For example, most
National Forest wildernesses in Montana draw about
three-fourths of their visitors from within Montana.
The Boundary Waters Canoe: Area in Minnesota
receives about two-thirds of its use from Minneso-
tans. Similarly, only about 5 percent of the National
Forest wilderness visitors in California are from other
States.

Recreational use is also very unevenly distributed
within most individual wildernesses. A small propor-
tion of access points and travel routes usually
accounts for most use. For instance, in several wil-
derness studies, it was found that about half of all
travel was concentrated on only one-tenth of the trail
system. This poses a management challenge — to try
to redistribute use more in keeping with area
capacity.

The need for intensified management of visitor use
is greatest in the heavily used wildernesses. Some
National Park wildernesses and a half dozen National
Forest wildernesses have some form of limitation on
use. In other areas, managers will probably be forced
to consider limiting use, although alternative actions
to inform and educate visitors might shift use pat-
terns and improve wilderness skills enough to reduce
impacts and avoid or postpone these controls.
Research indicates that most visitors, even in heavily
used wildernesses, consider a reasonable degree of
solitude to be an important wilderness characteristic
and support controls on use when needed.5° How-
ever, studies of wilderness visitors suggest that a sub-
stantial proportion, perhaps one-fourth to one-half of
those who now visit wilderness, would find the
recreation opportunities they are seeking as well or
better in a nonwilderness, roadless area.

Recreational demand for wilderness — The accu-
racy of recreational use estimates is generally low and
any analysis of demand must be cautious. However,
based on reported use figures, recreational use in wil-

50 Fazio, James R., and Douglas L. Gilbert. Mandatory wilder-
ness permits: Some indications of success. J. For. 72(12):753-756.
1974; Hay, Edwards. Wilderness experiment: It’s working. Am.
For. 80(12): No. 2629. 1974; Stankey, George H. Visitor perception
of wilderness recreation carrying capacity. USDA For. Serv. Res.
Pap. INT-142, 619. Intermt. For. and Range Exp. Sta., Ogden,
Utah. 1973: Taylor, Ronald B. No vacancy in the wilderness.
Sierra Club Bull. 57(1):58. 1972.

derness has outpaced the overall rate of growth for
outdoor recreation in other areas since the first
National Forest recreation estimates were released
over 30 years ago. Total visits to National Forest
wilderness have increased about fifteenfold since
World War II, and National Park roadless areas have
had similarly large increases. However, the annual
rate of growth has been falling. Prior to 1960, the
annual average increase in use of National Forest
wildernesses and primitive areas was 15 percent —
about twice the 7 percent average annual increase
since 1960.

The character of wilderness recreation use has also
been shifting. Backpacking, a popular family activity,
has surpassed horseback riding in growth. Similarly,
in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, visitors who
paddle canoes have increased faster than those who
use outboard motors on boats and canoes. The pro-
portion of visitors who go on do-it-yourself trips, in
contrast to outfitted and guided trips, has grown toa
majority — usually a very large majority — every-
where data are available. This is especially true in
wildernesses in the East, where few visitors go with
guides and outfitters.

“Wilderness areas must have outstanding opportunities for soli-
tude” ...— The Wilderness Act.

103

Research has shown that wilderness visitors are
overwhelmingly urban.*! In addition, research shows
that (1) wilderness visitors have high education levels,
(2) most are white-collar workers, primarily in the
social service and educational occupations, and
(3)they are somewhat above average in income.
Young adults are the most common visitors, although
children and older adults are well represented.
Although this youthful segment of the population has
grown enormously in the last 30 years, it will grow
more slowly in the decades immediately ahead and
eventually decline at a proportion relative to older
persons.*?

Considering the various factors affecting demand,
such as population, income, and education, it is esti-
mated that recreational use of wilderness will con-
tinue to grow in future decades, although the rate of
that growth will decrease. If no acreage is added to
the National Wilderness Preservation System, its
recreational use is expected to grow approximately 2
percent each year for the next several decades.*?
Larger increases are expected, however, if significant
acreage is added to the National Wilderness Preserva-
tion System.*4

Nonrecreational uses of wilderness — Although
recreational activities are the most common uses of
wilderness, other wilderness and resource values have
important implications for assessing demands for
future wildernesses and preparing management plans
for existing ones.

Several research studies have suggested that many
people enjoy wilderness vicariously, rather than on-
site.55 Some of these people have made, or will make,
on-site visits and value the option to visit wilderness,
while others never set foot in wilderness. However, all

5! Hendee, John C., George H. Stankey, and Robert C. Lucas.
Wilderness management. USDA For. Serv. Misc. Publ. No. 1365.
Washington, D.C. (see ch. 13). 1978.

52Marcin, Thomas C., and David W. Lime, our aging pop-
ulation structure: What will it mean for future outdoor recreation
use? p. 42-53. /n Proc. of the Nat. Symp. on the Econ. of Outdoor
Recreation, New Orleans, Nov. 11-13, 1974. Comp by Jay M.
Hughes, and R. Duane Lloyd. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-2. 1977.

3Jungst, Steven E. projecting future use of the National Forest
Wilderness System. lowa State University, Doctoral dissertation,
1978.

54[bid.

55Fisher, Anthony C., John V. Krutilla and Charles J. Cicchetti.
The economics of environmental preservation: a theoretical and
empirical analysis. Am. Econ. Rev. 62(4):605-619. 1972: and Tom-
baugh, Larry W., External benefits of natural environments.
Recreation Symp. Proc. USDA For. Serv., Northeast. For. and
Range Exp. Sta., Upper Darby, Pa. 1971: and Cicchetti, Charles
J..and A. Myrick Freeman Ill. Option demand and consumer
surplus: further comment. Q. J. Econ. vol. 85, p. 528-539. 1971.

104

these individuals value the existence of designated
wilderness.

Other wilderness uses include scientific, educa-
tional, therapeutic, and cultural activities. For in-
stance, ecologists, biologists, and scientists in other
related fields use wilderness as a natural laboratory.
The contrast between the natural wilderness ecosys-
tems found in most other places helps scientists
understand each kind of system better.5¢

Equally significant, the relatively large size of most
wildernesses permits many ecological processes to
work more freely and with less interference than in
small Research Natural Areas. This is particularly
important for endangered species and some mammals
with large ranges, such as grizzly bears and mountain
lions, both of which have been studied in wilderness.
In addition, wilderness serves as a potential gene pool
for indigenous species of plants and animals.

Educational use is another input of the wilderness
use. Specific data on this activity are unavailable, but
it clearly is substantial and growing, enough so that it
may be a significant source of use pressures in a few
places. A study of the use of wilderness by seven edu-
cational organizations in the Pacific Northwest esti-
mated 13,000 recreation visitor days of educational
use of eight wildernesses in Washington and Ore-
gon.*’” This accounted for about 5 percent of all use of
these areas.

Other uses are part educational and part therapeu-
tic. For example, Oregon mental hospital patients
have been taken on wilderness trips with impressive
success in patient improvement. Several studies have
shown that the isolation and challenge of a wilderness
setting have beneficial effects on delinquent or dis-
turbed young people.*8

In addition, other activities may appear to some to
be inconsistent with the special qualities of wilder-
ness, but take place in wilderness because of special
provisions of the Wilderness Act of 1964. For exam-
ple, the Wilderness Act permits the staking of mining
claims until the end of 1983. However, presently only
a few small mines are in operation within the Wilder-

56 Craighead, John J., Joel R. Verney, and Frank C. Craighead.

A population analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears. Mont. For.
and Conserv. Exp. Sta., School of Forestry, Univ. of Montana.
Bull. No. 40. 1974; and Hornocker, Maurice G. Mountain lion.
Naturalist. 22(3):27-32. 1971.

57 Dick, R. J., Oltremari, D. Shepard, and A. Wilcox. Wilder-
ness as a classroom —a preliminary report. (Unpbl. rep. on file at
Pac. Northwest. For. and Range Exp. Sta., Seattle, Wash.) 1972.

58 Thorstenson, Clark T., and Richard A. Heaps. Outdoor sur-
vival and its implications for rehabilitation. Therapeutic Recrea-
tion J. 6(4):16-161, 185. 1972; Kaplan, Rachel. Some psychological
benefits of an outdoor challenge program. Environ. and Behav.
(1):101-106. 1974; and Hanson, Robert A. Outdoor challenge and
mental health. Naturalist, 24(1):26-31. 1973.

ness System.

Similarly, livestock grazing and water storage are
other activities permitted by the Wilderness Act. At
present, about 200,000 animal unit months (one
animal unit month is equal to one cow or five sheep
for 1 month) of livestock grazing are taking place in
National Forest wildernesses. Also, there are a
number of small reservoirs for irrigation or stream-
flow regulation built before passage of the Wilderness
Act.

While it is not feasible to quantify demands for
nonrecreational uses and activities of wilderness in
any meaningful way, demands for most of these uses,
as for recreation, seem likely to increase in the decades
immediately ahead. A 1977 poll by Opinion Research
Corporation of Princeton, N.J., indicates strong pub-
lic support for the National Wilderness Preservation
System, although interviewees were not always clear
about what is a wilderness.59 The survey, sponsored
by the American Forest Institute and National Forest
Products Association, found that only 7 percent of
the 2,049 individuals questioned said there is “too
much” wilderness. Thirty-two percent said there is
“too little,” while 46 percent said the current amount
of wilderness is about right.

Opportunities for Meeting Future
Demands for Wilderness

It is probably unrealistic to consider, as some sug-
gest, that all currently undeveloped lands should be
set aside as wilderness to preserve future options.
There are, however, a number of opportunities for
increasing the size and improving the management of
the National Wilderness Preservation System.

Additional units — As of July 1, 1979, Congress
was considering 320 Administration-endorsed pro-
posals covering 26.1 million acres for inclusion in the
Wilderness System in the contiguous United States
(table 3.13). Of these proposals, 271 with a total area
of 12.5 million acres were National Forest lands; 23
proposals, with an area of 10.2 million acres, were
National Park System lands; the remaining 26 pro-
posals involved 3.4 million acres of lands adminis-
tered by the Fish and Wildlife Service.

These proposals have resulted from a series of stud-
ies by Federal land management agencies of their
roadless or undeveloped lands. For instance, the
Forest Service recently conducted a nationwide

59 Opinion Research Corporation, Caravan Survey. The public’s
participation in wilderness areas. Opinion Res. Corp., Caravan
Surveys, Princeton, N.J. 115 p. 1977.

6U.S. Department of Agriculture, For. Serv. Draft environ-
mental statement. Roadless areas review and evaluation, Washing-
ton, D.C., June 1978. 112 p.

study, the Roadless Area Review and Evaluation
(RARE II). The purpose of this study was to: (1)
Recommend to Congress roadless areas that should
be designated as wilderness to help round out the
National Wilderness Preservation System, (2) Deter-
mine roadless areas that should be made immediately
available to nonwilderness uses, (3) Identify areas
that require further study. Over 2,600 roadless areas,
covering 62 million acres and located in 37 States and
Puerto Rico were evaluated by the Forest Service. An
evaluation procedure was used which incorporates
public response received on the Draft Environmental
Statement, the determination of National, Regional,
and local needs for goods and services, and pertinent
legislation and administrative direction. On the basis
of these criteria, about 9.9 million acres were
proposed by the President for inclusion in the
National Wilderness Preservation System in the
lower 48 States. The largest chunks of land being
proposed for wilderness are 2.2 million acres in Idaho
and 2 million acres in Colorado. Almost 1 million
acres have been proposed in California and about
700,000 in Wyoming. In addition, another 10.6
million acres will be studied for possible inclusion in
the system.

In addition to the proposals before Congress, Fed-
eral land management agencies are continuing to
review the roadless or undeveloped lands for their
potential to be included in the National Wilderness
Preservation System. In particular, the Bureau of
Land Management has considerable land that has
potential for wilderness designation. The Bureau
estimates that over 120 million acres of the land it
administers are roadless and undeveloped. Over half
of these lands are located in Alaska with the
remainder in other western States. These roadless and
undeveloped lands will be studied for possible inclu-
sion in the National Wilderness Preservation System
as required by the Federal Land Policy and Man-
agement Act of 1976. Presently, the Bureau of Land
Management is studying 56 million acres in the 11
western States to determine whether wilderness char-
acteristics exist and if they should become wilderness
study areas. Six million acres in the California Desert
Conservation Areas already have undergone inten-
sive study.

Congress also is reviewing lands in Alaska for pos-
sible wilderness classification. Although the 94th and
95th Congress failed to complete the Alaska lands
legislation, it is expected to be taken up again in the
96th Congress. Proposals for wilderness in Alaska
vary. The Administration’s recommendations to the
Congress in 1979 were for 50 million acres of wilder-
ness in Alaska of which 30.8 million acres would be in

105

new or existing National Parks, 13 million acres
would be in new or existing National Wildlife
Refuges, and 6.2 million would be in existing and
additions to the Chugach and Tongass National
Forests. During the 96th Congress, the House passed
a bill designating approximately 67 million acres of
wilderness including 6.4 million acres in National
Forests. The Senate committee on Energy and Natu-
ral Resources also is considering a bill which calls for
the classification of about 35 million acres (including
3.9 million acres of National Forest lands and 1.4
million acres in a National Park Preserve) as wilder-
ness. Judging from the proposals considered by the
96th Congress, it is likely that a large proportion of
the National Wilderness Preservation System will be
located in Alaska.

State, local governments, and private lands consti-
tute another potential source of wilderness. Nine
States throughout the Nation have established wil-
derness systems within their boundaries, and other
public lands also have potential for wilderness desig-
nation. A noteworthy example is New York State
whose 16 areas total approximately | million acres.
Additional public units, together with such lands as
the “pocket” wildernesses established by Bowaters
Paper Corporation in Tennessee, could provide
important protection for the Nation’s wilderness
resource.

Opportunities to improve wilderness management
and planning — In addition to increasing the size of
the wilderness resource, more indirect but nonethe-
less effective efforts are being made to increase the
quantity and quality of wilderness experiences. One
important opportunity is improved coordination and
management of recreation and other uses in estab-
lished wildernesses. By considering the particular
characteristics of an area and its specific problems or
conflicts, management plans are helping to achieve a
balance between consistent policy application and
responsiveness to individual area differences. In par-
ticular, a recreational carrying capacity — the num-
ber of recreationists an area can support without
unacceptable change in the wilderness resource and
the recreation experiences it provides — needs to be
established for each unit. Actions to maintain visita-
tion levels at or below that capacity can help in en-
suring resource protection and in providing quality
wilderness opportunities. For instance, trailhead man-
agement at or near the wilderness boundary can serve
both the visitor and resource. Establishing new trail-
heads, closing others, and coordinating all trailheads
can be aids to successful wilderness management. Pre-
vious neglect of this opportunity has caused some of
the present user distribution problems.

106

Wilderness areas and wilderness use must be actively managed if
the full wilderness recreation potential of the land is to be attained.

Improved coordination of wilderness planning
with other resource planning efforts is also helping to
facilitate effective management. Many of the most
effective management techniques are those which are
applied outside the wilderness rather than within it,
stressing the importance of coordinated planning.
For instance, an opportunity for maintaining an
enduring wilderness resource is to make quality
recreational experiences available on nonwilderness
lands. Fishing might be equally enjoyable in a
dispersed recreation area managed for this purpose
but lacking such wilderness attributes as non-
motorized travel, iittle resource modification, and
low-density use. Efforts are currently being made to
develop and apply a planning technology — based on
the concept of an outdoor recreation opportunity
spectrum — which will serve to promote this broader
range of alternative recreation opportunities. That
broader range of opportunities, in turn, could in-
directly help to ease the growing use pressures on
wildernesses.

Opportunities to increase visitor information and
education efforts — Another important opportunity
for enhancing the management of the wilderness
resource is providing improved information and edu-
cation programs for the public. Increased efforts
to promote visitor understanding and cooperation
through education could help reduce the need for
control of public recreation in many wildernesses.
Before prospective wilderness visitors enter the wil-

derness, they could be instructed on the purpose and
value of wilderness, the proper way to use it, and any
rules and regulations regarding its use. Information
for visitors could be made available through environ-
mental education programs, the distribution of book-
lets and pamphlets, the news media, and administra-
tion of the permit system where in effect.

There is also a need for more seasonal wilderness
rangers to help inform and assist visitors once they
are inside wildernesses. Seasonal rangers now em-
ployed perform a variety of functions, including col-
lection of resource data for wilderness management
planning, cleanup work, fire suppression, wilderness
regulation enforcement, and sign, trail and bridge
maintenance. More of these seasonal employees
could increase management effectiveness and help
inform the public in a manner which perpetuates wil-
derness values.

Research opportunities —The ability to make
sound, effective planning and management decisions
concerning the wilderness resource will continue to
improve as more is learned about how the wilderness
resource is affected by use and management activities.
Managers need to understand more about the wilder-
ness resource, the people using it, and the impacts of
use on the resource if management is to meet future
social demands while maintaining the ecological

integrity of existing units. Greater understanding of
the recreation experiences which wilderness provides
can be gained from visitor studies that utilize the
principles and concepts of the social sciences. In par-
ticular, current efforts to gather knowledge of visitor
satisfactions and benefits will enhance management
effectiveness and aid in the development of improved
techniques for resource inventory and visitor
management.

The determination of baseline resource conditions
and development of measures to monitor impacts of
use on the resource needs further development to help
maintain the quality of the wilderness. For instance,
further information, including a better understanding
of the effects of wilderness use on water and air qual-
ity, wildlife behavior, human sanitation, and basic
ecological conditions and processes, is also needed
for the determination of carrying capacities.

Finally, research is being conducted that involves
the development of criteria and guidelines to aid
managers in making decisions. Inventory systems
that provide information on resource attributes can
be useful in allocating roadless lands to wilderness.
Improved analytical frameworks within which the
consequences or trade-offs of alternative manage-
ment directions regarding roadless lands can be accu-
rately portrayed would also be useful.

107

Chapter 4. — Wildlife and Fish

This chapter describes the current and likely future
status of forest- and range-related wildlife and fish
resources and ways in which those resources can be
improved. The approach is to describe (1) current and
prospective market, social, and ecological demands
for the resources; (2) extent to which supplies may
meet those demands; (3) implications of imbalances
between demands and supplies; (4) most significant
problems in the management of the resources; and (5)
broad opportunities to enhance wildlife and fish
resources.

The future of wildlife and fish resources depends
directly on the management and use of lands and
waters. Decisions regarding all resources — including
the timber, range, water, and outdoor recreational
resources discussed elsewhere in this report — will be
critical to the future welfare of wildlife and fish.

Ecological systems are dynamic and changes in
species occurrence and populations are to be ex-
pected. Such changes usually reflect changes in the
condition of the land and water base. In some in-
stances, changes in animal populations have been
viewed as reflections of changes in the Nation’s envi-
ronmental health or quality of life.’ In any event,
public concerns about the values of wildlife and fish
and of many other components of the natural world
have risen dramatically over the last few decades.
This is reflected in the passage of laws intended to
insure the maintenance and enlightened management
of these resources, increases in membership of wild-
life interest groups, and widespread public interest in
both public and private decisions affecting wildlife
and fish.

The following pages first provide a brief overview
of the wildlife and fish resources of the Nation. The
values ascribed to these resources and the demands
placed on them are defined and compared to likely
future supplies as a basis for general conclusions
about the extent to which desires for wildlife and fish
values might be realized. Finally, opportunities to
resolve broad problems are defined in terms of habi-
tat and population manipulations, regulations and
enhancement of uses, cooperative efforts to enhance
the condition of private lands, and the generation of
new information through research.

A Brief Overview of the Resource

The 1.7 billion acres of forest and range lands and
associated waters of the United States contain an
enormous variety of wildlife and fish, ranging from
tropical species in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands

'See, for example, “10 year EQ Trend” printed annually in the
February issue of National Wildlife Magazine.

to caribou above the Arctic Circle to songbirds dis-
tributed throughout the Nation. The resident and
common migrant vertebrate species and major sub-
species directly associated with forest and range
lands, or directly influenced by changes on these
lands, include about 200 amphibians, 900 birds, 1,100
fish, 400 mammals, and 350 reptiles.2 The distribu-
tion of these animals in the United States is indicated
in figure 4.1. There are perhaps six or eight times as
many species of invertebrates that are also distributed
across the Nation.

Many of these animals spend their lives in rela-
tively small areas, such as in or near ponds or forest
clearings. In contrast, many of the birds range widely
over several continents during their life cycles and are
true international resources. The anadromous salmon
of the Northwest spend their early lives in fresh water
as far inland as Idaho and their maturing years in the
ocean, returning inland to spawn and die. They, too,
transcend national boundaries. Other animals, such
as elk, migrate on a more local basis, moving with the
seasons from summering to wintering areas. Still
other species, such as the California condor, travel
widely each day in search of food.

As described in the Forest and Range Lands chap-
ter, the Nation’s land base is subdivided into forest
ecosystems (defined on the basis of the existing dom-
inant timber type) and range ecosystems (defined on
the basis of potential vegetation). Of the resident and
common migrant vertebrate species associated with
forest and range lands, about half are found in both
forest and range ecosystems. Slightly more than a
third are found only in forest ecosystems and the
remainder are found only in range ecosystems (table
4.1).

Wildlife and fish are unique resources with respect
to ownership and regulation. British common law,

2 These numbers and all other data in this chapter for which an
alternative citation is not provided have been assembled by the
Forest Service in cooperation with other Federal agencies and the
States, Territories, and Possessions. Descriptions, rationales, the
most promising uses, and the availability of the data base are given
in Schweitzer, D. L., C. T. Cushwa, and T. W. Hoekstra. The 1979
National assessment of wildlife and fish: a progress report. Jn
Trans. No. Amer. Wildl. and Nat. Res. Conf. 43:266273. 1978.
Included are data concerning all resident and common migrant
vertebrate species found on forest or range lands or in the asso-
ciated waters or that are directly influenced by the management of
those lands and waters. In addition, vertebrate subspecies and
invertebrates are included if they are (1) listed by the Federal ora
State government as endangered or threatened by extinction, (2)
known or likely to be particularly sensitive to the management of
those lands and waters, (3) recreationally important, or (4) com-
mercially important. A partial critique of these data is contained in
Hoekstra, T. W., D. L. Schweitzer, C. T. Cushwa, S. H. Anderson,
and R. B. Barnes. Preliminary evaluation of a national wildlife and
fish data base. In Trans. No. Amer. Wildl. and Nat. Res. Conf.
44:380-391. 1979.

109

Figure 4.1

Distribution of Resident and Common Migrant Vertebrate Species

and Subspecies of Special Concern Associated with Forest and

A- &
ie Range Land in the United States, by Section
M- 76
R- 1
Alaska North Central
Rocky Great Plains
Mountains Northeast
a A - 32
Pacific : As B - 373 A- 5¢ A- 49
Coast 2 F - 167 B - 328 B - 344
F - 236 Ml. 467 F - 262 F - 208
ae R- 71 M - 107 M- 81
A - Amphibians - 34 ieee i i
B - Birds - 458
F - Fish - 199
M-Mammals-~ - 200
R-Reptiles - 115 Southeast
A - 102 ee
B - 357
se F - 505 .
F - 382 M- 99 Caribbean
M - 172 R-i05 /!slands
A 2 6 R eee 145 A = 24
B - 200 B - 284
F- 32 F - 215
m- 34 Pacific South Central M- 25
R - 48 Islands R- 55

which stated that wildlife was held in trust by the king
in his role as sovereign, was the basis for U.S. law.
Each State retained its sovereign rights except in
those instances where particular rights were explicitly
granted to the Federal government by the Constitu-
tion.’ At first this philosophy was accepted as giving
to the States essentially full control over wild ani-
mals. However, the Federal role has been undergoing
a redefinition and expansion, at least since the late
1800’s. The constitutional basis for the Federal role is
found in its treaty making, property, and commerce
powers.

In general, private landowners have little legal
standing in the ownership and regulation of wild ani-
mals. Like the Federal land managing agencies, they
can regulate the use of animals by regulating access to
their properties. A series of Federal court cases is now
determining the extent to which Native Americans
are a special case and do, in fact, have property rights
in these resources.

3 Bean, M. J. The evolution of national wildlife law. Council on
Environmental Quality. Washington, D.C. 485 p. 1977.

110

Demands for Wildlife and Fish

Demands for wildlife and fish reflect the interest of
people in the many types of values associated with
those resources. For discussion purposes, these values
and demands can be sorted into three partially over-
lapping categories: those associated with market prod-
ucts, with social experiences, and with ecological per-
ceptions (table 4.2).

Market demands are those centered on capturing
the market values generated by the sale or barter of
wildlife (e.g., furs) and fish (food) products. The
extent or intensity of demand for these products is
usually measured by market prices and quantities
sold or bartered. Those wildlife and fish products that
are not sold or bartered but are substitutes for prod-
ucts that would otherwise be purchased — as where
sport hunters eat venison rather than beef—also
have “market-equivalent” values.

Social demands are defined as demands for experi-
ences that require wildlife and fish; included are
demands for hunting, fishing, and wildlife observa-

Table 4.1— Numbers of resident and common migrant vertebrate species and subspecies of
special concern found in forest and range ecosystems in the United States,
by section and category of species’

Total North- North | South-| South | Great Rocky Pacific Naska Pacific | Caribbean
U.S. east Central| east | Central| Plains |} Mountains | Coast Islands Islands

Category

All vertebrates:

Amphibians 24
Birds 284
Fish 215
Mammals
Reptiles

Total

Vertebrates in
forest ecosystem:

Amphibians 49 56 85 6 6 24
Birds 344 325 336 198 192 284
Fish 208 262 505 44 32 215
Mammals 2 S e
Reptiles

Total

Vertebrates in
range ecosystem:

Amphibians 0 17 39 0

Birds 0 203 207 0

Fish 0 70 81 0

Mammals 0 63 48 0

Reptiles 0 32 67 0

‘Subspecies of special concern are: those listed by the Federal or a State Source: Schweitzer, D. L., D. T. Cushwa, and T. W. Hoekstra. The 1979
government as endangered or threatened, those judged sensitive to land or water National assessment of wildlife and fish: a progress report. /n Trans. N. Am.
management practices, and those of commercial or recreational importance. Wildlife and Nat. Res. Conf. 43-266-273. 1978.

Table 4.2 — Categories of wildlife and fish values and common evidence of demand

Category of values Brief description Common evidence of demand
Market products Products produced from wildlife and fish that are Numbers of units of products
exchanged or serve as income supplements; includes purchased or consumed.
commodities such as wild furs and canned salmon
and other meat and fish that are consumed, Market prices or costs of harvest.
regardless of the principal reason for harvesting.
Social experiences Experiences having wildlife and fish as central focus; Numbers of individuals participating
includes hunting, fishing, and nonconsumptive in experience.
recreational activities as well as cultural activities
dependent upon wildlife and fish; includes Actual expenditures for licenses,
contribution of commercial and recreational use of equipment, and travel.

wildlife and fish to maintenance of lifestyle.
Estimates of willingness to pay for
recreational experiences based on
questionnaires.

Ecological perceptions Perceptions that wildlife and fish are important for Numbers of people belonging to
other than economic or social reasons; includes environmental organization.
belief in protection of individual species and
communities of species and “ecological integrity.” Laws, treaties.

CC eC Oo

111

tion. Common evidence of the extent of these
demands includes the numbers of participants and
the dollars spent to participate. In addition to provid-
ing a basis or focus for recreational experiences, wild-
life and fish occasionally play a critical role in the
cultural life of particular subgroups; that role is also
included here as a social value.

A third group of demands is that focused on eco-
logical or environmental values. While such demands
and values are difficult to precisely define, they are
nevertheless real. Ecological demands exist because
people believe that wildlife and fish have other than
direct market and social values. Such a perception
might have a purely philosophical basis, as when wild
animals are thought to have an absolute right to exist,
or it might be quite pragmatic, as when wild species
are thought to provide information that will be of
practical importance to people. The clearest evidence
of these demands are laws such as the Endangered
Species Act. Changes in the numbers of people
belonging to organizations that express concerns for
the preservation or wise use of wildlife and fish prob-
ably are also related to changes in ecological
demands.

Our ability to measure the extent of demands is
greatest for products that are sold in commercial
markets. Where appropriate data have been com-
piled, as for timber products, it is possible to define
the quantities sold and likely to be sold at alternative
prices—to determine from empirical evidence at
least the dollar values that purchasers place on the
products.

Although available information suggests that con-
sumers of recreational experiences generally value
those experiences more highly than is reflected by the
numbers of dollars they spend, there is little agree-
ment on how such information can be translated into
actual-dollar-spent equivalents.4

Those who are concerned with one category of
value often given weight to others; a focus on market
values does not rule out an appreciation of social or
ecological values. Indeed, there is evidence that, as
knowledge of wildlife and fish resources increases, so
does the individual’s appreciation of all kinds of
values. Similarly, many wild species are perceived to
have all of these values. Given the previous defini-
tions, every species has some ecological value.

4 Most commonly, the value of recreational experiences to users
is estimated by asking them what they would do or pay under
certain circumstances. Rationales and methodologies are summar-
ized in Dwyer, J. F., F. R. Kelly, and M. D. Bower. Improved
procedures for valuation of the contribution of recreation to
rational economic development. Res. Rep. 128, Water Resources
Center, Univ. Illinois. Urbana. 1977.

112

Demands for Market Products

There are strong worldwide commercial markets
for the salmon of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska
and a strong European demand for the furs of mam-
mals that are trapped throughout the United States.
The fish provide a livelihood for substantial numbers
of fishermen, and trapping supplements the income
of numerous (mostly rural) participants.

Commercial fishing. —The most direct reflection
of the market demand for salmon is its selling price,
which has risen more quickly than the average price
for all fish since the early 1970’s. The United States
value at dockside of commercial landings of Pacific
salmon reached $116 million in 1975 and $196 million
in 1976:5

Dockside value of salmon

Species

1975) 1976

Million
dollars

197511976

Chinook
Chum
Pink
Sockeye
Coho

All species 116 196: 4-57-4263

Salmon are processed for canning or for fresh, fro-
zen, or specialty products. This processing adds sig-
nificantly to the income and employment generated
by salmon. In 1977, salmon fishermen in Alaska
received $166 million for the fish while the value of
the salmon after processing was about $420 million.

Domestic demand for edible fishery products in-
creased by more than half from 1967 to 1976 because
of increasing per capita consumption and a continu-
ing growth in population. During the same years,
domestic landings increased by only 17 percent. As a
consequence, in 1976 nearly two-thirds of the fishery
products consumed in the United States were im-
ported at a cost of about $1,861 million. Salmon prod-
ucts have played an important role in offsetting part
of this cost through exports annually valued at about
$100 million in the mid-1970’s. From 1973 through
1977, France and Japan together purchased more
than half of the total exports.

5U.S. Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries

Service. Fisheries of the United States, 1976. Current Fishery
Statistics No. 7200. Washington, D.C. 96 p. 1977.

Commercial fishing and trapping provide livelihoods to some Americans and supplement the incomes of many others.

Fur production.— Those mammals collectively
called furbearers are both raised on fur farms for
eventual harvesting and trapped in the wild. The
numbers of farms and trappers have varied with the
market price of furs. Currently, slightly more than
half of all furs are harvested by trappers.

Fur production flourished in the United States
until the late 1940’s when a decrease in demand for
fur coats and low pelt prices sharply reduced produc-
tion. By 1970, demand had largely recovered, and
from 1970 to 1976 both prices and harvests increased
substantially. Pelt prices more than doubled for
badger, bobcat, coyote, fisher, fox, lynx, opossum,
raccoon, wolf, and wolverine in this period.®

There is a strong international trade in furs.
Throughout the 1960’s the United States was a net
importer of furs; since 1972, the country has been a
net exporter. In 1977 about three-quarters of all furs
harvested were exported; these were worth $208 mil-
lion, while imported furs were worth about $122
million.

If recent trends in domestic and international
fashions continue, there will continue to be a strong
demand for furs from the United States. This is espe-
cially true in light of recent restrictions on the inter-
national trade in furs of spotted cats, which tradi-
tionally had been supplied primarily by African and
South American countries.

6 Demas, E. F., and D. Pursley (eds.). North American furbear-
ers: their management, research, and harvest status in 1976. Inter-
national Assoc. Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Univ. Maryland Press,
College Park. 1978. Prices for furs have continued to increase since
these data were compiled. The authors note that some unknown
portion of the apparent increases in the value of furs is due to more
comprehensive and more accurate recordkeeping.

Wildlife and fish as food.— Many wild animals
that are commonly consumed, such as ducks and
deer, are sought by recreationists. Many other spe-
cies, such as muskrats and raccoons, are appreciated
by relatively small groups. In addition, nearly all
game fish are considered edible. Hunters and fisher-
men realize market-equivalent dollar values when
they consume wild animals.

Several estimates have been made of these market-
equivalent values. For example, from 1969 through
1973 the annual recreational harvest of deer averaged
somewhat more than 2 million animals or about 106
million pounds of boneless meat. This venison was
worth more than $100 million to hunters at prevailing
local prices of premium grade ground beef. In 1974
and 1975, the market-equivalent value of the annual
harvest increased to about $134 million.’ Similarly, it
has been estimated that the 1975 freshwater sport fish
catch of 829 million pounds was worth $1.3 billion.’

While such values are important to recreationists,
they are critical to subsistence hunters and fishermen
for whom wild animals are a primary source of food.
In the mid-1970’s, for example, the harvest of salmon
in Alaska for subsistence purposes totaled about 3
million pounds annually. Applying the average
dockside price paid to commercial fishermen for
salmon at that time — $0.63 per pound — yields a
market-equivalent value of about $2 million. This is
probably an underestimate because the harvests of

TWilcox, S. W. Deer production in the United States: 1969-1973.
(plus annual reports) Arizona State Univ., Tempe. 1976.

8Stroud, R. H. Recreational fishing. /n Wildlife and America.
H. P. Brokaw (ed.) Council on Environmental Quality. Washing-
ton, D.C. p. 53-66. 1978.

113

fish by subsistence users are not entirely known. Even
less is known about the harvest of other animals.

A study based on partial data suggests the
consumption by Alaskan natives of foods that were
not sold through commercial channels in 1973
included the following:°

Proportion
of total
Kind as Major
of food purchased” components
diet
Mammals 49 percent Caribou —
44 percent
Moose, seal —
33 percent
Fish, 46 percent Whitefish, chum
shellfish and pink
salmon —
54 percent
Birds 2 percent Geese, ducks,
and ptarmigan
— 87 percent
Berries,
greens,
roots,
vegetables 3 percent

Little attention has been paid to the extent to
which nonmarketed animals are sources of food. It
seems likely, though, that they are an important
component of the national diet. In the face of rising
prices for marketed red meat, market-equivalent
values will undoubtedly continue to increase.

Demands for Social Experiences

Many believe it is important to maintain the
present diversity of cultures or ways of life in the
United States, either because the Nation will be
somehow better or stronger or simply because
citizens should be able to live in the manner they
choose. The right to harvest wildlife and fish is
critical to maintaining some cultures. For example,
the importance to Native Americans of subsistence
rights to fish and wildlife has been widely recognized

9 Thomas, M. E., V. H. Burke, and W. C. Thomas. Some mea-
sures of food availability consumption in Alaska. Agrico Exp.
Sta., Univ. Alaska, Fairbanks. Tables 6 and 7. 1976.

114

Saher a oem
Wild animals are an important source of food for natives in Alaska
and Canada and ina smaller way for many hunters and fishermen.

in the past decade.!° Unfortunately, there are no
comprehensive measures of the extent of the needs
for the resources for this purpose.

By contrast, recreational demands for wildlife and
fish have been the subject of numerous descriptive
studies. Substantial sums are spent each year for pro-
fessional guides, transportation, cameras, birdseed,
and a host of other items related to recreational
activities. The major kinds of activities for which
comparable national data are available are shown in
table 4.3.!!

Fishing is the most popular consumptive activity.
Because of the relative abundance of warm water
habitats near population centers, the most sought-
after species are those adapted to warm waters; they
include panfish such as perch, black bass, catfish,

10 See, for example, Federal-State Land Use Planning Commis-
sion for Alaska. Summary of the conference on taking fish and
game resources to meet subsistence needs. Study 16. 19 p. memo.
Anchorage. 1974.

11 Unless noted otherwise, all descriptive data concerning recrea-
tionists and their characteristics are taken from U.S. Department
of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. 1975 national survey of
hunting, fishing, and wildlife associated recreation (including
unpublished supporting statistical data). 91 p. Washington, D.C.
1977. Due to varying definitions and sampling problems, estimates
of numbers of participants vary widely among studies of this
nature and are not highlighted here. The relative importance of
various activities is believed to have been accurately estimated.

northern and walleye pike, and muskie. The most
popular anadromous fish species in 1975 included:

Proportion
of anglers | Species Principal range

(Percent)

40 Salmon Chinook and coho —
Alaska to California,
inland to Idaho (trans-
planted to Great Lakes)

Chum — Alaska to Oregon

Pink, sockeye — Alaska to
Puget Sound

Atlantic — remnants in
northeast; population
now being re-estblished

36 Striped
bass

Canada to Louisiana
(transplanted to Pacific
Coast and to inland
States)

21 Steelhead Alaska to California,
inland to Idaho (trans-
planted to Great Lakes)

14 Sea-run
trout

Cutthroat, Dolly Varden —
Alaska to California

5 Shad Canada to Florida (trans-
planted to Pacific Coast)

Most hunters do not specialize in one type of
hunting. For example, 73 percent of those who hunt
big game also hunt small game. Consider the
following cross-tabulation of those who hunt several
kinds of animals:

this proportion
also hunts these:

Of those who
hunt these
animals —

Percent

Big game 39 29
Small game 34
Migratory

birds 36

Other species

Table 4.3 — Participation and annual expendi-
tures in selected recreational uses of wildlife
and fish in the United States, 1975!

Portion

of Days | Annual
popu- per cost per
Activity lation? | person

Percent

All fishing (29)

Warmwater 22

Coldwater 10

Anadromous 4

Saltwater 9
All hunting (11)

Small game

Big game

Migratory birds
Clamming and
crabbing
Wildlife observation
Wildlife photography

‘Days per person and cost data rounded.

? Includes those at least 9 years of age who participated to any extent in 1975.

3 Comparable national data not available.

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. 1975 national
survey of hunting, fishing and wildlife associated recreation. (Including unpub-
lished supporting statistical data.) Washington, D.C. 1977.

Only a third of those who fish also hunt; 90 percent
of the much smaller number who hunt also fish.
About half of those who go on outings specifically to
observe or photograph wildlife also hunt or fish at
other times. The average age of participants in all
hunting and fishing activities is about 30. Less than
10 percent of the hunters and 25 to 30 percent of the
anglers are women; nearly half of the participants in
nonconsumptive activities are women. Average fam-
ily incomes are between $10,000 and $15,000 except
for saltwater anglers and nonconsumptive users,
whose average incomes are slightly higher.

Future recreational demands. — Although outdoor
recreation centered on wildlife and fish includes
commercial operations for which there is information
on market values, most that occurs on forest and
range lands is available without charge or at a nomi-
nal charge determined administratively. As a result,
future demands for the Nation cannot be estimated
by traditional economic procedures. Instead, it is
necessary to express expectations of future participa-
tion in terms of desired participation levels.

Although disparities exist among available surveys,
appreciative or nonconsumptive users have increased
in numbers rather substantially in the last decade.
Birding appears to be continuing to increase in
popularity. Wildlife photography is increasing more
rapidly, but the number of photographers is so small
that projecting trends is risky. On the other hand,
nature and wildlife observers and memberships in

115

wildlife-related organizations are increasing moder-
ately and will probably continue to grow in the near
future. Although more comprehensive data collecting
is undoubtedly the cause of some of the apparent
increases, at the minimum, modest growth will occur
over the next few decades.!?

National projections of participation in hunting
and fishing can be made with somewhat more cer-
tainty. Available data suggest there will continue to
be substantial growth in the numbers of people who
want to participate. This growth will continue the
upward trends established during the past 30 years,
during which the number of licensed hunters has
doubled and the number of licensed fishermen has
more than tripled. Given the opportunity to partici-
pate at an acceptable cost, within a decade there will
be 20 percent more freshwater anglers and waterfowl
hunters and smaller increases in the numbers of big
game and small game hunters (fig. 4.2).!3

There are significant differences in the projections
of participation by region (table 4.4). The largest
increases will generally be on the Pacific Coast and in
the Southeast.

Figure 4.2

Demands Related to Ecological Perceptions

Ecological demands are concerned with values
other than those associated with market products or
social experiences. Included are demands that each
species be preserved and that at least the existing
variety of species be maintained throughout the
Nation. The Endangered Species Act is evidence of
the national demand or concern for the preservation
of each species. And taken together, the total com-

'2 More, T. A. The demand for nonconsumptive wildlife uses: a
review of the literature. U.S. Department of Agriculture, For.
Serv. Northeastern For. and Range Exp. Sta. Tech. Rep. NE-52.
16 p. Broomall, Pa. 1979.

13 Dyer, A. D., and W. E. Wegert. Demand analysis and projec-
tion of use for hunting and fishing opportunities. M.S. disserta-
tion. College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Colorado State
Univ. Fort Collins. 1978. These projections are essentially extrapo-
lations to a growing population of past participation rates by age
groups, as reported in the periodic national hunting and fishing
surveys. Adjustments of some data were made to compensate for
changes in definitions among surveys. Because many of the deter-
minants of actual participation — such as energy availability and
disposable income — were not explicitly considered, the order of
magnitude of each projection is its most important characteristic.

Projections of Participation in Major Hunting and Fishing Activities Under
Medium Level Population Assumptions, 1978-2030

Index of Participation (1978 = 100)
260

240
220
200
180
160
140

120

1990 2000

Salt Water
Fishing

Fresh Water

Fishing

ting
Water Fowl! Hun
Big Game Hunting
Small Game Hunting
2010 2020 2030

Table 4.4— Projections of indexes of participa-
tion (medium population level) in fishing and
hunting in the contiguous States by activity

and section, 1990-2030

(1977 = 100)

Type of activity
and region

Population index'

Saltwater fishing
Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central
Rocky Mountains
Great Plains
Pacific Coast
All regions

Freshwater fishing
Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central
Rocky Mountains
Great Plains
Pacific Coast
All regions

Waterfowl hunting
Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central
Rocky Mountains
Great Plains
Pacific Coast
All regions

Big game hunting
Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central
Rocky Mountains
Great Plains
Pacific Coast
All regions

Small game hunting
Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central
Rocky Mountains
Great Plains
Pacific Coast
All regions

‘Index of projected increases in population (medium level)

Source: Dyer, A. D. and W. E. Wegert. Demand analysis and projection of use
for hunting and fishing opportunities. M.S. dissertation, College of Forestry and
Natural Resources, Colorado State University. Fort Collins. 1978

plex of Federal laws sets as a national objective the
maintenance of a variety of physical conditions capa-
ble of supporting as wide a variety of species as possi-
ble.!4 The reasons behind these laws vary from a philo-
sophical belief that preservation is morally right to a
recognition of the practical value of preserving gene
pools.

From the perspective of altering the physical condi-
tion of forest and range lands and associated waters,
the first ecological concerns are for those species that
are already in danger of extinction. The numbers of
endangered or threatened species and major sub-
species listed by the Federal government are shown
by animal category and geographic area in the top
quarter of table 4.5. By law, Federal agencies are
required to try to improve the status of each until it
can be removed from the list.

The second quarter of table 4.5 lists the additional
numbers of species that have been placed on compar-
able lists by individual States. Occurrence of a species
on a State list is frequently an indication that it will
later appear on the Federal list.

The third quarter of the table contains the addi-
tional numbers of species judged by Forest Service
wildlife biologists to be particularly “sensitive” to
changes in physical conditions caused by applying
standard management practices. These species have
been designated as requiring particular consideration
when evaluating the likely impacts of management
activities on the National Forests.

The bottom part of table 4.5 shows that nearly
2,000 species and major subspecies of vertebrates and
invertebrates may require some sort of special con-
sideration in the management of our forests and
rangelands.

The entire preceding discussion of demands is
based on the notion that wildlife and fish have clien-
teles or advocates because those resources are recog-
nized by people as having value. But given our rudi-
mentary understanding of how ecological systems
function and of the actual and potential contributions
made by wild fauna, it is certainly true that there can
also be actual values that are not recognized. For
want of a more suitable categorization, the insistence
by some that our present limited knowledge calls for
a conservative approach to altering our land and
water base is included here as an ecological demand.!5

14Bean, M. J. The evolution of national wildlife law, op. cit.

'5 See Fisher, A. C. and J. V. Krutilla. Valuing long run ecologi-
cal consequences and irreversibilities. J. Environ. Econ. and Man-
age. 1:96-108. 1974. For a discussion of American attitudes
towards animals, see S. R. Kellert. Perceptions of animals in
American Society. /n Trans. No. Amer. Wildl. and Nat. Res. Conf.
41:546-553. 1976.

117

Table 4.5 — Numbers of endangered, threatened and sensitive-to-management species and
subspecies in the United States, by category and section, January 1979

Total | North- North | South-| South | Great Rocky Pacific Alaska Pacific | Caribbean
U.S. east Central} east | Central} Plains | Mountains | Coast Islands Islands

Federally-listed endangered and threatened species'

Category

Amphibians 7 ) 0 1 0 0 2 0 0
Birds 70 3 4 9 3 6 12 4 40
Fish 41 4 3 4 Q 16 8 (e) 0
Mammals 25 4 4 vi 2 8 7 0 3
Reptiles 18 0 0 5 0 1 4 0 0 1
Invertebrates 39 4 9 14 20 0 1 6 0 0

Amphibians 9 16 12 ata 9 6 0 0
Birds 2 34 77 48 25 5 1 23
Fish 11 103 58 46 18 6 0 0
Mammals 2 19 28 6 22 6 5 1
Reptiles 8 33 12 11 12 2 0 0
Invertebrates 0 2 20 94 0 0 0 0 0

Amphibians
Birds

Fish
Mammals
Reptiles
Invertebrates

Total

Amphibians
Birds

Fish 0
Mammals 4
Reptiles 20
Invertebrates 5 11 39 13

‘This tabulation agrees with that published in the Federal Register (Vol. 44, No.
12, 1/17/79), except that eight whales have been omitted.

Source: Schweitzer, D. L.,.C. T. Cushwa, and T. W. Hoekstra. The 1979
National assessment of wildlife and fish: a progress report, op cit. See source
note table 4.1.

The people especially concerned about ecological
values have been quite effective since about the mid-
1960’s in stimulating the passage of Federal laws.
Whether this trend will continue is open to debate.
For example, there has been growing support to pro-
vide in law and by appropriations a greater recogni-
tion of the values of nongame wildlife. On the other
hand, the original absolute requirements of the
Endangered Species Act have been modified to per-
mit conflicting resource values to be realized where
that course of action is judged to be in the best inter-
est of the Nation. As a generalization, however,
developments in this country suggest that public con-

The Endangered Species Act is evidence of national demand for
preservation of all species of wildlife and fish.

118

cerns about ecological values are likely to continue to
be significant.

Supplies of Wildlife and Fish
and Comparisons with Demands

The major values associated with wild animals that
are found on forest and range lands and the national
demands for those values have been broadly de-
scribed. In this section, trends in the supplies of wild-
life and fish are discussed and contrasted to trends in
demands so that likely future imbalances can be
identified.

With some notable exceptions, the numbers of
animals in wild populations are essentially unknown.
As a consequence, professional judgments of resource
changes over time and recorded changes in harvest
levels must serve as the principal bases for discussions
of trends in supplies, and only short-term projections
into the future are feasible.

The information presented below on recent trends,
and the prospects for the next decade, suggest that
some types of demands may not be met; in fact, just
maintaining present population levels of many spe-
cies will be difficult.

Supply of Fish

The fish associated with forest and range lands are
found in marshes, ponds, lakes, streams, estuaries,
and the ocean. The total number of fish species and
major subspecies and the numbers that are recrea-
tionally and commercially important are summarized
in table 4.6 by type of water and geographic area.

Fifteen years ago, the Outdoor Recreation Re-
sources Review Commission noted that the creation
of fishing sites at artificial impoundments plus inten-
sified management of natural lakes and ponds were
the primary means by which future demands for
freshwater fishing could be met!® Subsequently, 3.3
million acres of reservoirs, farm ponds, and fishing
lakes were constructed in the 1960’s. Today, nearly
half of all warmwater fishing takes place in artificially
stocked impoundments or reservoirs or in association
with dams (table 4.7). In roughly the same period,
more than a million acres of natural fishing waters
were renovated, restocked, or made newly accessible
to anglers. In many instances, undesirable species
were replaced with more popular fish, fertilizers were
applied to stimulate food production, and nesting
and rearing cover was installed.

Coldwater populations are also being supple-
mented with hatchery fish, though to a lesser extent
than is true for warmwater fish; a quarter of all cold-

'6OQutdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission. Sport
fishing — today and tomorrow. Study Rep. No. 7, 84 p. Washing-
ton, D.C. 1962.

The construction of millions of acres of reservoirs and ponds in
recent decades has greatly benefited wildlife and been a primary
means of meeting growing demands for fishing.

water fishing is related to artificial impoundments. It
is common to stock even high mountain lakes in Wil-
dernesses in an attempt to meet the constantly grow-
ing demand for sport fishing.

The story is similar for anadromous fish. In
Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and California, a sub-
stantial proportion of all caught salmon are now pro-
duced in fish hatcheries. In contrast, nearly the entire
Alaska salmon population is still produced naturally.
In both Alaska and the Northwest, private fish hat-
cheries are beginning to supplement those built with
State and Federal funds.

In the mid-1970’s, annual harvests of Pacific sal-
mon averaged about 40 million fish (table 4.8). Over
the past 20 years, both the sports harvest and the
number of recreational anglers have increased by
about 10 percent. There are now about 1.3 million
anglers in the Northwest and 13,000 in Alaska.

Subsistence users annually harvest about 350,000
salmon in Alaska. At least 7,000 subsistence users are
known; the numbers in interior and arctic Alaska are
not known.

During the last two decades, commercial harvests
have varied greatly from year to year (fig. 4.3). This
has been particularly true for pink and sockeye sal-
mon, with the years from 1972 through 1975 yielding
exceptionally low harvests. (In contrast, Canadian
harvests of sockeye were near record high levels in
1972 and 1974.) In spite of the great fluctuations over
the past two decades, no long-term increasing or
decreasing trend in harvests is apparent for this

119

Table 4.6 — Numbers of fish species and major subspecies of recreational and commercial impor-
tance associated with forest and rangelands in the United States, by type of water and section

Type of Total North- North South- South Great Rocky Pacific Alaska Pacific | Caribbean
water! U.S. east Central east Central Plains | Mountains | Coast Islands Islands

All species
Marsh 45 88 32 133 104
Lake 113 151 158 158 130 ye i a
River 195 241 374 156 185 51 RE 68
Estuary as a ° ; 42 171
Ocean 31 185
Recreationally important species
Marsh 41 42 46 19 50 71 4 5 5 25
Lake 95 71 79 95 57 89 56 16 11 26
River 130 73 106 162 53 113 62 26 16 42
Estuary 23 0) 57 7 0 1 48 21 3 57
Ocean 16 0 87 3 0 63
oe important species
Marsh 19 30 53 0 23
Lake 40 49 37 - 55 1 20
River 62 48 ey aS 56 1 40
Estuary a : 0 46
Ocean Sea 49

‘A given species can be found in several types of water and all species included
have been judged to be directly influenced by the management of forest and/or
range ecosystems. Type of water follows classification of palustrine, lacustrine,
riverine, estuarine, and marine suggested by L. M. Cowardin, F. C. Golet, and E.

Table 4.7 — Percentages of fishing days in the
United States, by species group and type of
water, 1975

Species group

Type of water

Great Lakes
Other lakes and

ponds 28
Impoundments,

reservoirs,

and tailwaters 41
Streams and rivers 25

Estuaries
Saltwater

Total

Fishing days for
species group as
percent of total

Source: See source note table 4.3.

120

T. LaRoe, Classification of wetlands and deep water habitats of the United States.
U.S. Department of Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D.C., p. 100,
1977. Reservoirs and impoundments are excluded.

Source: See source note table 4.1.

period.!’? The Alaskan share of the total U.S. harvest
has varied from 62 percent (in 1973) to 91 percent (in
1977) and has averaged about three-quarters of the
total.

About 570,000 sport anglers annually caught 1.4
million steelhead in the Northwest in the mid-1970’s.
A third of the land-based steelhead fishing was on the
National Forests, with most of the rest split between
State and private lands. State lands were most impor-
tant for salmon fishing, accounting for nearly half of
all land-based fishing; private land accounted for
most of the rest.

'7The greatest catches in history, of well over 600 million
pounds, were taken in the middle and late 1930’s. There was a
continuing decrease in annual catches to an average of less than
half that total during the 1950’s. Department of Agricultural and
Resource Economics, Oregon State Univ. Socio-economics of the
Idaho, Washington, Oregon, and California coho and chinook
salmon industry. Report to the Pacific Fishery Management
Council. Vols. A and B. Corvallis, Oregon. 1978.

Council on Environmental Quality. 1978. Wash., D.C. p. 314.
1978.

Table 4.8 — Average annual harvest of Pacific salmon, by species and type of harvest, mid-1970’s
(Thousands of fish)

Species

Pink salmon Nearly all

Sockeye salmon Nearly all
Chum salmon Nearly all
Coho salmon 60 percent

Chinook salmon
Total

30 percent

Note: Data derived from information supplied by individual States

Figure 4.3

Commercial Harvest of Pacific Salmon by Species, 1956-1977

Mil. Lb. (Round Weight)
440
All Species

Pink Salmon

Sockeye Salmon

Chinook, Coho, Chum Salmon

1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976

In the 1950’s and 60’s, coho and chinook salmon
were first introduced to the Great Lakes from the
West Coast. Continuing stocking programs (and con-
trol of the lamprey eel) resulted in harvests in the
mid-1970’s of about 1.7 million sport fish annually.

As a result of the increasing demand and gradually
increasing prices for fishery products, by the mid-
1970’s more than 130 million pounds of finfish and
shellfish were raised in controlled habitats and sold
for human consumption annually by the aquaculture

Harvest in Washington, Oregon,
California, |ldaho
Totaltte t Commercial harvest as Total Commercial Recreational
Se Cen percent of total harvest harvest harvest

Harvest in Alaska

Subsistence
harvest

industry in the United States. Warmwater channel
catfish was the most important species, yielding
about 80 million pounds of fish and over $40 million
in sales. This industry now includes at least 2,000
commercial fish farmers and perhaps an additional
1,000 fee-fishing operations; it is centered in Missis-
sippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Thirty million pounds
of trout are sold by about 100 commercial farms and
another 1,200 farms provide fish for stocking private
waters; this industry is centered in Idaho and Mon-
tana. Salmon, oysters, crayfish, and shrimp are also
produced in significant quantities. Although it has
been estimated that a total production of 2 billion
pounds is possible within two or three decades, there
are major institutional, environmental, and economic
problems that would have to be overcome.!8

Supply of Furbearers

Furbearers are discussed separately from other
mammals because of their significant economic
values as a source of pelts for the national and inter-
national fur trade.

In 1975-76, 13 million pelts brought about $123
million at public auctions in the contiguous United
States. This figure represents a sixfold increase in the
value of pelts between the 1970-71 and 1975-76 sea-
sons. The increase in value is due to both an increase
in harvests, from 7 million to 13 million pelts, and
increases in the values of individual furskins.

'8 Lowell, R. T. Fish culture in the United States. Science 206:
1368-72. 1979.

National Research Council. Aquaculture in the United States
—constraints and opportunities. National Academy of Sciences,
Washington, D.C. 123 p. 1978.

Klontz, G. W., and J. G. King. Aquaculture in Idaho and
nationwide Idaho Water Resources Institute, Univ. Idaho, Mos-
cow. 86 p. plus appendix. 1975.

121

In the 1975-76 season, half the pelts were muskrat;
another third of the total consisted of raccoon and
nutria. Raccoon accounted for 50 percent of the total
value, muskrat for 18 percent, and nutria, red fox,
and coyote for 6 or 7 percent each (table 4.9).

With the exception of the opossum and nutria, all
the above species are widespread, occurring in at least
70 percent of the area of the Nation. The opossum is
spread across perhaps half of the country, primarily
in the East, and the nutria is restricted to the South
Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and to the West Coast. Pri-
vate lands, and especially riparian areas, provide
most of the habitat for furbearers. Exceptions are
Alaska, where public lands are most important, and
the Rockies, where critical habitats are spread among
all ownerships.!9

The demand for furskins is governed by trends in
fashions. The current, relatively high demand is
expected to continue for some time. It is felt by many
that existing population levels of furbearers are ade-
quate to support demand during the next decade or
so, at least for most species. However, at this time
there is a particularly sharp dispute over the status of
existing populations of bobcats, which are in high
demand as a source of “spotted cat” furs.

'9Sisson-Lopez, P. J.. and A. T. Cringan. An analysis of the
U.S. fur trade. Dep. Fishery and Wildlife Biology, Colorado State
Univ., Fort Collins, Colo., 57 p. 1979.

Supply of Other Small Mammals
and Upland Game Birds

This group includes hunted upland birds and small
mammals other than furbearers. About 40 million
rabbits and hares, squirrels, and quails, and perhaps
12 million pheasants, 3 million grouses, and | million
partridges are harvested each year. The small game
species attracting more than a million hunters each in
1975 were:20

Species | Number of hunters

Millions

Rabbit, hare 10.2
Squirrel 8.6
Quail 6.0
Pheasant 5.9
Dove 4.7
Woodchuck,

ground squirrel ul
Crow 2-5
Grouse 233

Table 4.9 — Harvests and commercial values of pelts of furbearers sold in the contiguous States,
by section, 1975-76

Furbearer and
commercial value

Beaver
Coyote
Gray fox
Red fox
Mink
Muskrat
Nutria
Opossum
Raccoon
Other’

Total

Commercial value
to trappers and
fur-farmers 15 55 6

‘Includes 15 species yielding less than 100,000 pelts each.
Source: E. F. Deems, and D. Pursley (eds.). North American furbearers: their

122

North South | Rocky Mountains | Pacific

21 54 10
[zars_[ soe [6190 | aes [oes

Proportion of
commercial value

Percent

on _
DO-A-?NWOMNNOD—

10

15 2 123

management, research, and harvest status in 1976. International Assoc. of Fish
and Wildlife Agencies, Univ., Maryland Press, College Park, 1978.

Perhaps as many as 12 million pheasants are harvested each year.

As the numbers of hunters have increased over
time, greater pressures have been placed on animal
populations. A measure of changes in this pressure is
provided by the ratios of numbers of animals to
numbers of hunters. Such ratios for small mammals
and upland game birds are presented in figure 4.4.
Any ratio greater than 1.0 represents a time when
there were more animals per hunter than was true in
the mid-1970’s, which is the base period for these
data.?!

For all parts of the Nation, pressures on popula-
tions of upland game birds have increased substan-
tially during the past 20 years. By contrast, at least in
the Northeast, North Central, and Pacific Coast
regions, there has been little increase in pressures on
small mammal populations, which seems to be due to
a combination of actual increases in those popula-
tions and changes in the way the populations are
estimated. The extraordinary changes in pressures in
the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains sections reflect
the fact that until recently small game species were
hunted by relatively few recreationists.

21 Data on the numbers of hunters and animals at the mid-point
of each decade were provided by the individual States and are
included in the data base cited in footnote 2. Because these data are
incomplete, it was necessary to exercise considerable proféssional
judgment to construct the ratios for groups of species and groups
of States shown in figures 4.4 and 4.5. Tables 4.-1 and 4.13 were
developed in a similar fashion.

Seventy-one percent of all small game hunting
occurs on private lands (table 4.10). These lands pro-
vide most hunting opportunities even in the West,
where Federal ownerships are most extensive (table
4.11).

Table 4.10 — Percentage distribution of days
hunting in the United States, by land owner-
ship and major activity, 1975

All Migratory
Ownership , bird
neotng hunting’
Private 67 69
Federal 10 8
State 10 8
Public,
unspecified 8 8
Unknown 5 6 4

‘Includes ducks, geese, doves, woodcock, rails, coots, and gallinules.
Source: See source note table 4.3.

Supply of Large Mammals and Turkeys

This discussion includes the big game species and,
for convenience, turkeys. By far, the most widely
hunted big game species in the United States is the
white-tailed deer. Mule deer, turkey, elk, bear, ante-
lope, moose, mountain sheep, mountain goat, and
javelina are all regionally important species. The pro-
portion of hunters seeking each of these species and
national trends in harvest since the mid-1950’s is
shown in table 4.12.

With a few exceptions, these data show increasing
harvests over time. Both turkey and javelina are spe-
cies that have become more popular as game recently.
The exceptions to these increases are generally those
species that have relatively specialized habitat require-
ments that either are not capable of sustaining large
numbers of animals or that are particularly sensitive
to intrusions by man.

Changes in pressures on big game animal popula-
tions are expressed by ratios of numbers of animals to
numbers of hunters in figure 4.5. Pressures have
increased substantially over the past 20 years in most
parts of the country. It is noteworthy that, with the
exception of the South Central and Great Plains sec-
tions, State wildlife experts expect that big game
populations will increase at least as fast as the
number of hunters over the next 5 to 10 years. In
some areas, these judgments are based on the belief
that animal populations will increase substantially as
the result of management and protection activities.

123

Figure 4.4

ie ec SSS De nC
Numbers of Small Game Mammals! and Upland Game Birds Relative to Numbers of
Hunters in the Contiguous United States by Section, Mid-1950’s through Mid-1980’s

Index of Small Game Mammals per Hunter (70’s

1.0)

|

SLT |
ait
anece
HTT
‘

50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s

North-
east

North
Central

South-
east

South
Central

Pacific
Coast

Great
Plains

Rocky
Mountains

50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s

1No data for Pacific Coast before 1970's; indexes exceed scale for Rocky Mountains and Great Plains before 1970’s.

(This has generally been true in the past for white-
tailed deer and for turkeys.) In other areas, particu-
larly in the West, this result is based on expectations
that many who would like to hunt big game will not
be given that opportunity. Limits on the numbers of
licenses sold will reduce the numbers of hunter-
participants.

While two-thirds of all hunting takes place on pri-
vate lands, the proportion for big game hunting is
somewhat less because most of these species are
found in relatively remote areas. The pattern of land
use varies, of course, by area and by species (table
4.13). There is generally much greater dependence on
private lands east of the Mississippi River.

124

Supply of Waterfowl

The annual harvest of ducks has fluctuated be-
tween 4 and 16 million birds in the last 20 years
because of changing climatic conditions in the major
breeding grounds. High duck harvests in the late
1950’s and in the early and middle 1970’s followed
relatively wet years; low harvests in the early and late
1960’s and late 1970’s followed much drier conditions
in the prairie pothole region (fig. 4.6).

Mallards, pintails, wood ducks, scaup, and teal are
the most heavily harvested species. The distribution
of harvests by species in the early 1970’s for each
flyway is summarized in table 4.14. Wintering duck

Table 4.11 — Average percentages of days of small game and upland game bird hunting for selected

species in the contiguous States, by major land ownership and the land ownership with major

Hunted
species

Northeastern States
Rabbits, hares
Squirrels
Quail
Pheasant
Forest grouse
Doves
Woodcock

North Central States
Rabbits, hares
Squirrels
Quail
Pheasant
Forest grouse
Woodcock

Southeastern States
Rabbits, hares
Squirrels
Quail
Pheasant
Forest grouse
Doves
Woodcock

South Central States
Rabbits, hares
Squirrels
Quail
Forest grouse
Doves
Woodcock

Great Plains
Rabbit, hare
Squirrels
Quail
Pheasant
Prairie grouse
Doves

Rocky Mountain States .

Rabbit, hare
Squirrels
Quail
Pheasant
Forest grouse
Prairie grouse
Doves

Pacific Coast
Rabbit, hare
Quail
Pheasant
Forest grouse
Prairie grouse
Doves

‘Includes some local government lands.

? Less than 3 percent.

National
Forest

Other 1 Private
ee ee ere

Source: Data derived from information supplied by individual states.

Ownership

potential for increased hunting, by section, mid-1970’s

Ownership with
major potential

for increased hunting

Private
Private
State, private
Private
Private
Private, State
Private

Private
Private
Private
Private
All
All

Private

Private

Private

Private
National Forest
Private

All

Private

All

Private
National Forest
Private

All

Private, other Federal
Private

All

Private

Private, other Federal
Private

All

National Forest
Private

Private
National Forest
Other Federal
All

Private

All

Private
National Forest
Limited to none
Limited to none

125

Table 4.12 — Trends in harvests of principal big game species and proportion of big game hunters
pursuing species in the United States in 1975

Pr rtion : ra Index of harvest (mid-70's = 100)
i pone Species Principal range mid-1970's
of hunters mid-60's | mid-70's

Percent Number
Deer, white-tailed Everywhere except western
mountains and prairies 1,740,000
95 Deer, mule Forested mountains, western
desert foothills to Cascade
Mountains 285,900
Deer, black-tailed Forest from Cascade Mountains
west; coastal Alaska (Sitka black-
tailed) 51,800
13 Turkey Southeastern and Southern
deciduous forest (eastern);
Texas and Oklahoma (Rio
Grande); western mountains of
Colorado, Arizona, and New
Mexico (Merriam’s) 167,2005
7 Drier portions of Rocky Mountains
(Rocky Mountain elk) and
Cascade and Coastal Mountains
(Roosevelt elk) 98,800
Bear, grizzly and Forests of Wyoming, Idaho,
brown Montana, and Alaska (grizzly
5 bear); coastal areas of Alaska
forests (brown bear) 750°
Bear, black Isolated blocks of coniferous and
deciduous forest land 16,300
2 Pronghorn antelope Open grasslands from Texas to
Canada 81,900
1 Moose Riparian and wetland habitats
producing hardwoods in Alaska,
Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, 10,000°
Minnesota, and Maine 2,100*
: Bighorn sheep High mountain ranges in Alaska
(Dall sheep), Northern Rockies
(Rocky Mountain sheep), and the 1,000°
Southwest (desert sheep) 4004
: Mountain goat Above timberline in Southern
Alaska, Washington, Idaho and 800°
Montana, and Colorado 6004
2 Javelina Southwestern desert shrub and
adjacent habitats F 9,800
‘Less than 1 percent. Sources: Harvest information derived from U.S. Department of the Interior,
2Not reported. Fish and Wildlife Service. Big game inventory. Washington, D.C., (annual reports)
3Harvest in Alaska. 1950-1970, and from National Rifle Association of America, NRA hunting annual.
‘Harvest in contiguous United States. Washington, D.C., (annual publications) 1970-1977. Information on hunters
5About three-quarters were eastern turkeys. derived from U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. 1975

national survey of hunting, fishing, and wildlife associated recreation. (Including
unpublished supporting statistical data.) Washington, D.C.

126

populations were distributed among flyways in
roughly the same proportions. The most heavily
hunted species are:

Average | Apparent
breeding | population| Trend

Species population | trend from| since
1955-1976 | mid-1950's| then
(Millions) | to early
1970°s
Mallard 8.8 Down Steady
Green-winged
teal Tp2 Down Up
Greater and
lesser scaup 6.7 Up Up
Pintail 6.2 Down Up
American
wigeon Sal Down Down
Northern
shoveler 1.9 Down Steady
Gadwall 1.4 Up Down
Redhead w) Up Up
Canvasback 6 Up Steady

The harvest of geese has not exhibited the radical
fluctuations that have characterized the duck harvest,
primarily because breeding habitat conditions in the
northern forested and Arctic tundra regions of Can-
ada and Alaska are more stable. The harvest of geese
has increased in the United States since the mid-
1950’s and, in the first half of the 1970’s, averaged
about 1,600,000 birds per year. Canada geese have
been most important, followed by snow and white-
fronted geese.

Populations of the only swan species hunted in the
United States, the whistling swan, increased from
81,000 in 1967 to 157,000 in 1976. About 1,000 have
been harvested each year since 1971. Trumpeter
swans, which are found in western Montana, north-
eastern Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Alaska, and Canada,
are estimated to number about 6,000.

In every section of the country, more waterfowl are
harvested on private lands than on any other
ownership. Federal lands are most important in the
interior West, but they contribute only a fourth of the
total harvest in any section. State lands are most
important in the Northeast and on the Pacific Coast.

Supply of Nongame Wildlife

For the great majority of wildlife species that are of
particular interest to “nonconsuming” recreationists,
there is little empirical evidence of changes in popula-
tion levels. Trends have been evaluated systematically

only for bird populations. Variations in the numbers
of birds in North America have been derived from
breeding population studies, autumn migration
counts, and winter population counts.

Preliminary analyses indicate that most nongame
bird species associated with forest habitats have had
relatively stable populations during the past decade
when viewed on a continent-wide basis, although
there have been significant changes in the populations
of particular species (table 4.15). Most of these
changes appear to be related to changes in forest
stocking levels. A number of eastern species have suf-
fered significant population declines. Compensating
increases in populations of species typical of stocked
forest stands in the same areas is suggested by avail-
able data, but the evidence is not strong enough to
permit firm conclusions.?2

Raptorial birds, often regarded as the most sensi-
tive indicators of environmental change, have been
monitored by autumn migration counts, or “hawk
watches,” and by winter population counts, or
“Christmas bird counts.” Raptor population trends
were examined for 12 species for the period 1967-74
to see whether changes could be correlated with
decreases in the use of organochlorine pesticides and
increased protection of the birds. The findings
include statistically significant decreases in the red-
shouldered hawk and increases in the sharp-shinned
and Cooper’s hawk. Lesser decreases (not siatistically
significant) were found in populations of the Harris
hawk, northern harrier, and the peregrine falcon, and
lesser increases were found in goshawk, kestrel, and
great horned owl populations.?3

In a separate effort, average population levels of 17
raptorial species in the period 1948-1966 were com-
pared to average levels in 1967-74. Five species had
greater populations in the more recent period, five
had lower levels, and seven had no sigificant change.

22Capen, D. E., and S. P. Ahlefeld. Habitat associations and
population trends of nongame birds in forest ecosystems. School
of Natural Resources, Univ. Vermont, Burlington, Progress report
(mimeo). 1979.

Cooper, R. J.,and D. E. Capen. The 1979 RPA national assess-
ment of wildlife and fish: nongame birds. School of Natural Re-
sources, Univ. Vermont. Burlington. Final report (mimeo). 61 p.
1978.

Robbins, C. S., and A. J. Erskine. Population trends in non-
game birds in North America. /n Trans. No. Amer. Wildl. and Nat.
Res. Conf. 40:288-293. 1975.

23U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service
Environmental Assessment: proposed falconry regulations. Wash-
ington, D.C., 61 p. 1976.

127

Figure 4.5

Numbers of Big Game Animals in Populations Relative to Numbers of Hunters
in the Contiguous United States by Section, Mid-1950’s through Mid-1980’s

Index of Animals in Population per Hunter (Mid-1970’s = 1.0)

(
ar cl
Ne

a>
a

u
VF lel

ee a a ey ey

50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s 50s 60s 70s 80s

Figure 4.6

Duck Harvests by Major Flyways, 1955-1975
Mil. Ducks Harvested

“wg

Total U.S. Harvest

Mississippi
a
ri
/ ~ ra
A a. ~-
\ 4 oY wf’ Pacific

central ‘fe -

y= -47 -on a

ee as Atlantic. "7t2007"

| : Sole |
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975

Supplies Related to Ecological Perceptions

Ecological demands are largely focused on insuring
the preservation of individual species and of entire
communities of species. The Endangered Species Act
addressed the first concern. The Marine Mammal
Protection Act addressed the second concern by
emphasizing that the management of entire ecosys-
tems, including communities of wild fauna rather
than species-by-species management, offers the best
chance to realize the full continuum of wildlife
values.*4

24This has been generalized to say that management activities
should lead to maximizing the total complex of values of an eco-
system, that future management options should be preserved, and
that the risk of long-term adverse effects should be minimized by
explicitly making allowances to compensate for incomplete knowl-
edge, for imperfect decisions, and for imperfect implementation of
decisions. Holt, S. J., and L. M. Talbot. New principles for the
conservation of wild living resources. Wildlife Monograph 59,
Wildlife Society. 33 p. 1978.

128

The only available direct measure of the degree to
which ecological demands are being met is the success
(or lack of success) in preventing the extinction of
individual species.

It has been suggested that the historical rate of
species extinction in the United States has paralleled
the rate of population growth.’5 Fossil evidence indi-
cates that in prehuman times mammal and bird spe-
cies became extinct at the rate of three per century. The
rate of extinction apparently had accelerated to about
150 species per century by the 1800’s. Eighty-five spe-
cies and subspecies of vertebrate animals are known
to have been extinguished since 1900. There is general
agreement that extinctions are likely to continue to
accelerate in the absence of intense (and expensive)
corrective actions.*6

Because the present process of defining and listing
species as endangered or threatened is quite new, the
benchmark for measuring success in preventing
extinction is not firm. Efforts are at an early state of
development. For endangered species, most available
resources are still being devoted to determining
exactly where they are found, their habitat require-
ments, the potential extent of their range, and strate-
gies for their rehabilitation. Since the first official
Federal listing of endangered species was made, fewer
than 10 species have been delisted because their num-
bers have increased to the point where they are no
longer endangered.

Many endangered and threatened species are geo-
graphic isolates, the most obvious being those
endemic to oceanic islands. Some species never were
abundant but developed in severely restricted habi-
tats. The “islands” of suitable habitats that support
other rare species are remnants of vegetation types
that were once much more extensive. A continual
subdividing or shrinking of blocks of similar vegeta-
tion is one explanation for the decline of carnivorous
birds and mammals.

The remaining endangered species have suffered
from a variety of ills, including exposure to chemicals
at concentrations greater than could be tolerated. Ina
number of instances, and particularly in the Pacific
and Caribbean Islands, the introduction of compet-
ing exotic species and of predators has had devastat-
ing impacts on native fauna.

25 Opler, P. A. The parade of passing species: a survey of extinc-
tions in the U.S. The Science Teacher 44(1):14. 1977.

26 Fawcett, C. W. Vanishing wildlife and federal protective
efforts. Ecology Law Quarterly 1(3):520-560. 1971.

Table 4.13 — Average percentages of days of big game hunting for selected species in the contiguous
States and Alaska, by major land ownership and the land ownership with major potential for

Hunted
species

Northeastern States
Deer
Turkey
Bear

North Central States
Deer
Turkey
Bear

Southeastern States
Deer
Turkey
Bear

South Central States
Deer
Turkey
Bear

Great Plains
Deer
Turkey
Antelope

Rocky Mountain States
Deer
Turkey
Bear
Antelope
Elk
Moose

Pacific Coast States
Deer
Turkey
Bear
Antelope
Elk

Alaska
Deer
Bear
Moose
Caribou

‘Includes local government lands.

?Less than 3 percent.

increased hunting, by section, mid-1970’s

National Other : :

Source: Data derived from information supplied by individual States.

Ownership with
major potential

Private
Private
Limited to none

Private, State
National Forest, State
National Forest

Limited to none

All
All
Limited to none

Private
Private
All

All -

National Forest
National Forest
Other Federal
National Forest
National Forest

National Forest

All

National Forest
Other Federal, State
National Forest

National Forest

All (black bear only)
None

None

129

Table 4.14 — Average distribution of duck
harvest within flyways in the United States
1970-1977, by species

(Percent)

Species

Mallard
Pintail
Wood duck
American
widgeon
All teal
Black duck
Gadwall
Shoveler
Canvasback
All scaup
Ring-
necked
duck
Redhead
Goldeneye
Others

Total

—_k ok
@O---30NV A

'Less than 1 percent. 3 3 . :
Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, unpublished Populations of most nongame bird species with forest habitats have
file of Office of Migratory Bird Management, Washington, D.C. 1978. been relatively stable in recent decades.

Table 4.15 — Relative population trends of selected nongame birds on forest land, by species
and section of the contiguous States, 1968-1977'

Rocky
Mountains
Great Plains

Pacific

Contiguous Northeast North Southeast South
Coast

species States Central Central
Indigo bunting

Horned lark

Red-eyed vireo
Savannah sparrow
Northern parula

Tufted titmouse

Pine warbler

Warbling vireo

Pileated woodpecker
Black and white warbler
Eastern wood pewee
Eastern kingbird
Loggerhead shrike
Eastern meadowlark
Chipping sparrow
Grasshopper sparrow
Dickcissel

Vesper sparrow

Brown thrasher

+++
+ + +
'
ict

+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

‘Entry of zero means no significant trend. Entry of plus sign (minus sign) Source: D. E. Capen and S. P. Ahlefeld. Habitat associations and population
means significant increase (decrease) in population. Increase in number of signs trends of nongame birds in forest ecosystems. School of Natural Resources.
indicates stronger evidence. See source for statistical meaning. University of Vermont. Burlington. Study progress report (mimeo.) 1979.

2No data, or species is not resident in section.

130

Implications of Not Meeting Demands
for Wildlife and Fish Resources

It seems clear that demands for wildlife and fish
resources are likely to increase in the decades ahead.
While the ability to predict future supplies of these
resources is limited, continuing losses and degrada-
tion of habitats suggest that even maintaining some
present population levels will be difficult. To the
extent that demands for wildlife and fish are not met,
there will be a reduction in some of the values that
might have been realized from these resources. The
major kinds of direct and derived values associated
with these resources are summarized in table 4.16.

Pacific salmon currently are the basis for the
employment of both commercial fishermen and
employees in shore-based fish processing plants. Any
reduction in current harvests would lead to losses in
these jobs and to locally severe economic conse-
quences in fishing communities in Alaska and the
Northwest. Steadily increasing market prices for sal-
mon products suggest that increases in salmon popu-
lations would result in income and employment
above current levels.

Trapping most commonly provides supplemental
income to rural residents. A reduction in the oppor-
tunity to harvest furbearers would result in losses of
some income to many individuals across the Nation.

Unless action is taken to increase supplies, there will be intensifying competition and
less satisfying opportunities for outdoor recreation based on wildlife and fish resources.

Table 4.16 — Major values associated with wildlife and fish occurring on forest and range land

Category of values

Market products Marketed salmon products

Marketed fur products

Nonmarketed wildlife and
fish consumed as food

Social experiences Recreational experiences

Cultural experiences

Ecological perceptions Perceptions that species

and communities of
species should be
preserved

Current projections suggest that substantial in-
creases in opportunities to hunt and fish will be
necessary to meet future recreational demands. To
the extent additional opportunities are not available,
conditions will be more crowded and success ratios
will be lower. In addition, some who would have par-
ticipated will not have that opportunity. This is
already true for hunters of some big game species
which are available in such limited numbers that only
the winners of special lotteries can hunt them.

The current numbers of hunters and sport anglers
and their expenditures indicate that such recreation is
valuable to the participants. Evidence that recreation-
ists are willing to spend more for some kinds of activi-
ties than others provides a basis for a rough ranking
of the values of these activities to the recreationists.
For example, differences in average expenditures per
day (table 4.3) suggest that the loss of a given number
of recreation-days of salmon fishing or big game
hunting would represent a larger loss to participants

132

Major components Direct values

Derived values

Income, employment of
fishermen

Income, employment in
dependent fish processing
and marketing industry
Income of trappers Income, employment in
dependent fur processing
and marketing industry

Contributions to national
balance of payments

Dollar-equivalent income
supplements of sub-
sistence users (major) and
of sport hunters and
anglers (less)

Contributions to physical
and mental health

Income, employment in
dependent recreation
industry

Funds to support State
wildlife and fish
management programs

Preservation of dependent
cultures and means of
self-identification

Natural control of
economic pests

Preservation of national
heritage, gene pools,
opportunities for study
and understanding

Benchmark for measuring
conditions where resources
are not preserved

than would a loss of the same number of oppor-
tunities for warmwater fishing or small game hunting.
This seems reasonable because (1) that loss would
represent a larger share of all opportunities of the
more highly valued activities, and (2) there are gener-
ally perceived to be fewer opportunities to substitute
other “equivalent” experiences for those that are most
highly valued.2’

A second-order consequence of not meeting de-
mands for recreational opportunities would be a
slowing in the growth of income to the supporting
recreation industries (although other firms might
benefit as substitute activities become more popular).
Many rural communities depend substantially on the
expenditures of hunters and anglers, and the manu-
facture of sport hunting and fishing equipment is of
national economic significance. The 1975 national
survey of the Fish and Wildlife Service estimated that
sport hunters and anglers spent more than $15 billion
annually in the United States.?8

Because most money available to State agencies
concerned with fish and wildlife is derived from
sportsmen, a reduction in hunting and fishing partic-
ipation could reduce or slow the growth in State
funds available for fish and wildlife activities.2? For
figure 4.7, the source of the $135 million available to
the States for the administration of inland sport
fisheries and wildlife resources in 1971 are shown in
figure 4.7.

Wildlife- and fish-related activities have social and
cultural implications, whether those activities are pri-
marily economic or recreational in nature. Wild
animals provide an opportunity for commercial
fishermen and trappers to maintain a particular way
of life and contribute to the lifestyles of recreationists.
Where these resources are important for ceremonial
or religious purposes, they may be critical to the con-
tinuing existence of a particular culture.3?

The extinction of a species diminishes the Nation’s
natural heritage and reduces future options for study
and, perhaps, breeding. Losing a particular com-
ponent of fauna from an ecosystem can lead to eco-

27 There is evidence, for example, that waterfowl hunters have
been turning to woodcock in the Northeast. Artman, J. W. The
status of American woodcock 1975. U.S. Department of the In-
terior, Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C. 1975.

For more general discussions concerning substitutability among
outdoor recreation activities, see:

Hendee, J. C., and R. J. Burdge. The substitutability concept:
implications for recreation research and management. J. Leisure
Research. 6:157-162. 1974.

Krieger, M. H. What’s wrong with plastic trees? Science 179:446-
455. 1973.

For discussions concerning the determinants of satisfaction in
hunting and fishing, see:

Potter, D. R., J. C. Hendee, and R. N. Clark. Hunting satisfac-
tion: game, guns, or nature? Jn Trans. No. Amer. Wildl. and Nat.
Res. Conf. 38:220-229. 1973.

Stankey, G. H., R. C. Lucas, and R. H. Ream. Relationships
between hunting success and satisfaction. In Trans. No. Amer.
Wildl. and Nat. Res. Conf. 38:235-242. 1973.

For a discussion of the contribution of genera! outdoor recrea-
tion activities to physical and mental health, see the earlier chapter
on outdoor recreation.

28 The prices recreationists will pay to use private lands for wild-
life or fish-centered recreational activities sometimes have been
found to be greater than the values of those lands in commodity
-production. For example, an Arizona study found that twice as
many dollars could be charged for sport hunting on certain Ari-
zona rangelands as for cattle ranching. Martin, W. E., and R. L.
Gunn. Economic value of hunting, fishing, and general rural out-
door recreation. Wild. Soc. Bul. 6(1):3-7. 1978.

29 Wildlife Management Institute. National survey of state fish
and wildlife funding. Washington, D.C., 40 p. 1973.

30 For a comprehensive discussion of the cultural significance of
salmon in the Northwest, see Department of Agriculture and
Resource Economics, Oregon State University. Socio-economics
of the Idaho, Washington, Oregon, and California coho and chi-
nook salmon industry. Report to the Pacific Fishery, Management
Council. Corvallis, Oreg. Vols. A and B. 1978.

nomic losses, as when reductions in the populations
of birds that eat insects lead to buildups of insect
populations; these insects then must sometimes be
controlled by chemicals or the introduction of preda-
tors. And a reduction in the variety of wildlife in a
particular area probably diminishes the satisfaction
of many recreationists.

A somewhat similar cost is incurred when animal
populations are out of balance with the way man
chooses to use lands. Animals cause economic losses
by destroying agricultural crops and livestock, delay-
ing successful regeneration, and reducing growth
rates on forest lands. It is believed that the value of
agricultural crops lost to wildlife exceeds $100 million
per year. Rodents probably cause the most damage,
but birds and mammals also are locally important
causes of damage to particular crops. Losses of live-
stock to predators were reported at about $170 mil-
lion in the 22 Western States in 1973, including $80
million for cattle and calves, $53 million for sheep
and lambs, $32 million for chickens and turkeys, and
$5 million for pigs and hogs. Coyotes, bears, foxes,
lions, raccoons, and skunks all contributed to these
losses.3!

Problems in Improving the Status
of Wildlife and Fish

The preceding has compared trends in demands
and supplies and broadly discussed the implications
of any future imbalances. This section provides an
overview of the factors that inhibit-correcting imbal-
ances, primarily from the perspective of the forest
and range land manager.

The major problems facing managers have been
ranked by importance for each part of the Nation by
Forest Service wildlife and fisheries biologists, who
are charged with very broad land and water manage-
ment responsibilities for the National Forest System.
These :problems, listed in order of overall national
importance, are presented in table 4.17.

Greatest concern was shown for the broad category
of conversions of forest and range vegetative types by
man. Such conversions alter faunal communities
radically. More specifically, the continuing loss and
degradation of wetlands and riparian zones and of
old-growth components of forests pose significant
problems in discharging Federal land management

31U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service

National Animal Damage Control Program: environmental state-
ment (preliminary draft). Washington, D.C. 1978.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
Sheep and lamb losses to predators and other causes in the western
United States. Agriculture Economic Report 369. Washington,
D.C. 41 p. 1977.

133

Figure 4.7

Sources of Funds for Fish and Wildlife Management—1971

State Taxes and
Miscellaneous

Agency Land
Investments

Boat and Motor
Fuel Taxes

Federal Excise Taxes
Fishing
Equipment }

Hunting
Equipment

Commercial 1%

Licenses

responsibilities. Second-rank concerns of these biolo-
gists include the impacts on terrestrial and aquatic
habitats of urban and energy developments, decreas-
ing water quality (in spite of recent legislation), and
difficulties in maintaining the variety of habitat con-
ditions necessary to support a wide variety of animal
species.

When considering particular species in particular
geographic areas, other problems are seen as most
critical. Illegal harvesting of black bears, mink,
panthers, turtles, and white-tailed deer in the South,
over-harvesting of salmon in the Pacific Northwest,
competition by exotics in Hawaii, and withdrawals of
water in the Rockies and on the West Coast are all
regionally significant problems for some wildlife and
fish species.

Modifications of Terrestrial Ecosystems
The major broad problem in maintaining or en-
hancing socially desirable animal populations and

communities of animals has been the conversion of
forest and range lands to lands used for agricultural

134

and urban-related activities. The extremes are found
in Alaska, which is relatively untouched by develop-
ment, and in the Pacific and Caribbean Islands,
where the native ecosystems have been eradicated or
at least greatly modified. These changes have been
accompanied by changes in species occurrence and
population levels.

In general, current conditions in the eastern United
States are more favorable for deer and farm-type
wildlife than were the mature forests in the time of the
first colonists. On the other hand, the available habi-
tat has been decreased for those large mammals that
require extensive blocks of vegetation, such as elk,
and for large birds of prey and cavity-nesting birds
that require (Commercially) overmature trees. At the
extreme, particular populations have become geo-
graphic isolations that are unable to interbreed with
other populations. This is a major concern in the
management of a number of large mammals, includ-
ing the mountain lion, bighorn sheep, and wolf.

By the early 1900’s, most species requiring exten-
sive habitats, such as wolf and elk, were gone from
the eastern United States and there had been sharp

Table 4.17 — Relative importance of problems faced by managers of wildlife and fish associated with
forest and range lands in the United States, by region, as judged by Forest Service wildlife and
fisheries biologists!

Northeast, | Southeast, Rocky Mountains — Great Plains Pacific Coast Hawail,
Type of problem North South h East West South See ak
Central Central Northern Central | Central |POU erin Sait

2 1 1 1

Puerto
Rico

Conversion of vegetative
types by man

Loss of wetlands and
riparian zones

Loss of specialized
habitats especially old
growth, snags

Broad disturbances from
urban development

Broad disturbances from
energy development

Restrictions on manage-
ment in special-use
areas

Lack of habitat diversity

Deteriorating water quality

Inadequate water quantity
or inadequate
distribution

Fragmentation of habitats

Loss of habitats through
natural plant succession

Industrial and mining
pollution

Inadequate harvest
regulation

Competition of nonnative
species

Poor health of animal
population (parasites,
diseases)

1" means judged most important.

?1 — Appalachia; 3 — elsewhere.

*2 — Lake States; 1 — elsewhere.

*1 — Interior North Central; 3 — elsewhere.
°1 — Lake States; 2 — Interior North Central.
®1 — Texas; 3 — elsewhere.

135

declines in populations of grizzly bears, antelope, and
mountain sheep in the West. But there also had been
substantial increases in populations of wildlife asso-
ciated with farming, such as mourning doves, bob-
white quail, cottontail rabbits, meadowlarks, and
crows. The regrowth of previously cutover forest
lands was accompanied by tremendous increases dur-
ing the thirties in the numbers of white-tailed deer in
the East and, a decade later, in black-tailed deer in
the West. Prairie grouse in the Lake States gave way
to ruffed grouse; beaver, coyotes, and black bears
became abundant.?2

Man’s activities tend to lead to “islands” of homo-
geneous vegetation. For example, on lands devoted
to commercial timber production, every effort is
made to speed the juvenile stage of growth so timber
can be harvested as early as possible. On range lands,
shrubs and forbs are removed and grasses encouraged
to provide as much forage as possible for livestock.
As a result of such activities, the range of habitats
available to wildlife within an area is reduced and the
species remaining are the relatively few adapted to
this limited range (although the number of animals
within each species may increase). The borders
between homogeneous areas must provide the “edge”
that is essential for a wide variety of species.

Natural succession also changes habitat conditions,
generally in the opposite direction of man’s activities.
Abandoned agricultural lands tend to return to
forests. Openings in forests are filled in as new trees
grow. On prairie agricultural lands, annual plants are
replaced by combinations of perennial grasses, herbs,
and shrubs. To the extent that those interested in wild
animals favor the species associated with farm lands
or that require openings in forests, the manager has
the task of fighting nature to artificially maintain
approximately those conditions.

Loss of Wetlands

During the two centuries of the Nation’s existence,
the area of wetlands in the contiguous States has been
reduced by nearly half, from 127 million to about 70
million acres. These areas provide key habitat for
waterfowl and many other wildlife species. The areas
currently most threatened by drainage, primarily for
agricultural purposes, and the most critical areas of
waterfowl habitat, are shown in fig. 4.8. Drainage of
wetlands in the prairie-pothole country of Minnesota
and the Dakotas and in the coastal zone of the south-
eastern United States poses a continuing threat to
wetland-associated wildlife populations.

32 Abstracted from Allen, D. L. Historical perspective. /n Land

use and wildlife resources. National Academy of Sciences.
Washington, D.C. 128 p. 1970.

136

The “edge” where two different vegetation types meet is an
essential habitat for many species of wildlife.

Overall, perhaps 80 percent of all riparian habitats
found in wetlands adjacent to rivers, streams, and
other bodies of water has been lost. No ecosystems
are more essential to the survival of the Nation’s fish
and wildlife. For example, western riparian eco-
systems contain approximately 42 percent of the
mammal species of North America, 38 percent of the
bird species, 30 percent of the reptiles, and 14 percent
of the amphibians. Seventy-seven percent of the
breeding bird species and 75 species of fish of the
Southwest depend on riparian ecosystems. Eastern
wildlife most severely affected by the loss of riparian
wetlands includes otter, muskrat, mink, beaver, rac-
coon, Canadian geese, and wood ducks.33

Endangered species are associated with at least 20
percent of all riparian lands. Nine riparian wetland
habitats are on the Critical Habitat List and 17 more
have been proposed. (A critical habitat is defined by
the Endangered Species Act as the area of land, air,
or water required for the normal needs and survival
of a species listed as endangered or threatened.)
Sixty-four species which are dependent upon riparian
ecosystems have been listed as endangered and 47
more have been proposed for listing.

When wetlands are filled or drained, they are usu-
ally turned to other valuable but competing uses.
Indeed, one-quarter of all privately-owned agricul-
tural soils in the United States were originally
wetland. The recent high price of soybeans has stimu-
lated the clearing and draining of bottom land hard-
woods in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the south-
eastern coastal States. Similar activities in the prairie

33 Council on Environmental Quality. Environmental quality —
1978. Washington, D.C. p. 316. 1978.

Figure 4.8

Status of Wetlands in the United States

‘6 °F,

(i) Wetlands facing greatest threat of drainage

aR Waterfowl! breeding habitat needing protection ®

States resulted when the price of wheat accelerated
after large sales to the Communist bloc nations in the
early 1970's.

Riparian habitats on rangelands are very suscepti-
ble to damage from overgrazing by livestock. Re-
moval of tree cover in the understory is of special
concern, particularly in the Southwest where this rel-
atively limited habitat is vital to the native fauna. Its
removal reduces wildlife population levels and ulti-
mately the variety of wildlife that can be supported.
When riparian lands are grazed too heavily, stream-
banks are damaged, movement of sediment into the
stream channel is accelerated, stream channels tend
to become wider and shallower, and the water
becomes warmer. These physical changes may adver-
sely affect aquatic organisms. To some degree, down-
stream habitats are also affected.

Modifications of Aquatic Ecosystems

The relative importance of current water-related
activities and conditions that have major implications
for wildlife and fish is shown by section in table 4.18.

ye

“Uf Waterfowl wintering habitat needing protection

(fis

IP

ri jue

ul i)

ig
liga

© Destroyed by highway construction
and water facilities

Urban or industrial encroachment

The problems of major concern include reductions in
streamflows, physical changes to free-flowing streams
and rivers, pollution, and sedimentation.*4

The consumptive use of water for urban, agricul-
tural, and industrial purposes and the consequent
reductions in streamflows is great enough in some
areas to threaten the existence of aquatic organisms.
This is particularly true in the Southwest and in the
southern portions of the Rocky Mountains and Great
Plains. In especially dry years, problems also com-
monly occur in central California, as far north in the
Great Plains as Kansas, and in the south central por-
tion of Oregon and in southern Florida.35

34 This discussion is primarily drawn from U.S. Water Resource
Council. The Nation’s water resources — Part III, functional water
uses, Chapter 10: water requirements for fish and wildlife and
related instream flows (review draft). p. 232-270. 1978.

35 An inference from the Supreme Court decision in the Rio
Mimbres case of 1978 is that the Forest Service has no legal right
to divert water solely for wildlife or fishery purposes in the western
States; the applicability to other Federal land-managing agencies
has not yet been tested. See Wengert, N. Reserved rights and Fed-
eral claims to waters. In Proc., Legal, institutional, and social
aspects of irrigation and drainage and water resources planning
and management. Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers. (NYC). p. 93-107.
1979.

137

Table 4.18 — Relative importance to wildlife and fish of water-related activities and conditions in the
contiguous States and Hawaii, by region, 1975'

Source of concern

Pollution, sedimentation,
and eutrophication

Residential, commercial,
industrial development

Dams, irrigation, navigation
and channelization projects

Volumes and fluctuations
of streamflows

Agriculture activities
Mining activities

1" means of greatest importance. No entry means not of major concern.
Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Outdoor Recreation.
Nationwide analysis of outdoor recreation. 1975. In U.S. Water Resource Council.

Free-flowing streams and rivers have been physi-
cally changed for many purposes, including power
generation, flood control, and transportation routes
for barges. While most hydroelectric construction has
been centered in the West, channelization continues
as a major activity in the East, and particularly along
the Mississippi River and its tributaries.

The damming of rivers, reductions in the flow of
freshwater, and dredging of navigation waterways in
coastal zones change water circulation patterns and
the volumes of sediment entering estuaries. The sedi-
ments themselves are important, for they are sites for
microbial activity responsible for the decomposition
of organic matter. Substantial reductions in sediment
loads lead to the erosion of tidal shores, beaches, and
the deltas themselves.

Leveeing of the Mississippi River has altered the
distribution of silt-laden freshwater to such an extent
that the Louisiana coastline is subsiding rapidly. Salt-
water intrusions are dramatically altering the fresh-
water and brackish marshes. On the Texas Gulf
Coast, predicted increases in freshwater consumption
may well lead to increased salinity, which would have
a serious impact on the shrimp and shellfish indus-
tries and on fishery habitats. The diversion of fresh-
water supplies through the cross-Florida navigation
system to Lake Okeechobee has reduced the extent of
the Everglades and of the estuarine ecosystem off
south Florida, and has increased the adverse impacts
of normal dry years. Finally, massive diversions of
water from the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers
to supply southern California cities with water
threaten to change San Francisco Bay from an estua-
rine to a marine environment; the anadromous fish
and waterfowl populations of central California also
have been affected.

138

North South Rocky Mountains- | Pacific

The Nation’s water resources — Part I/l, Chapter 8; Water requirements for
recreation and related resource considerations (review draft). p. 203, 1978.

Pollution and Sedimentation

Pollutants from a variety of sources, including
agricultural and industrial chemicals, pose a threat to
populations of wildlife and fish. Perhaps best known
has been the sometimes devastating impact on large
birds of prey, which accumulate some of the chemi-
cals assimilated by organisms that are at lower levels
in their food chains. The brown pelican, bald eagle,
and peregrine falcon are species that have suffered
from contamination of their food chains.

Pollution can have devastating effects on scenic beauty and-on
wildlife and fish habitat.

The Federal Water Pollution Control Act and its
amendments established an interim national goal of
ensuring waters of a quality sufficient to support
water-related recreation, fish, and wildlife. The initial
concentration of control efforts on point source pol-
lution was successful to the point that non-point
source pollution (primarily in the form of chemicals
and sediment carried by surface runoff from agricul-
tural lands, urban developments, and sites disturbed
by logging operations and road construction) is now
the major concern.

In 1940, surface mining accounted for less than 10
percent of domestic coal production. Currently,
about half of our coal is produced in this manner,
with disturbances distributed over 4 to 5 million
acres. Strip mining is now expected to increase sub-
stantially in the East and in the northern Great Plains
and Rocky Mountains with attending increases in
erosion and sediment loads downstream. The ecology
of streams might be changed through changes in
runoff patterns, changes in sediment loads, changes
in temperature regimes, or by chemical enrichment or
toxic pollution.

The effects of sediments on aquatic organisms in-
clude direct fish kills, covering of spawning beds of
trout and salmon, reductions in populations of a var-
iety of aquatic organisms, reduction in light transmit-
tance, and alteration of streamflow patterns. Desira-
ble species can be seriously reduced in number. At the
same time, conditions may become favorable for less
desired species.

The presence of toxic waste materials in runoff
waters can affect organisms by eliminating certain
species if concentrations are great. Lesser concentra-
tions can suppress stream productivity and the
growth rate or reproduction of many aquatic species.
The duration of toxic water pollution can be long
term. In Appalachia, it is estimated that the time
required to completely leach out toxic materials from
spoil piles can be as long as 3,000 years.

Other Problems in Management

In addition to habitat conditions, there are other
kinds of problems facing wildlife and fish managers.

Harvest regulation. — For most species, regula-
tions on harvesting are set by individual States. The
intent is to adjust these regulations as required to
insure continuing healthy populations while they are
used for man’s benefit.

Illegal taking of game species is a continuing prob-
lem to some degree across the Nation. Ina few places,
poaching of deer and other big game occasionally
disrupts management programs for particular species.

Regulating the harvest of animals that migrate over
considerable distances, particularly those that are
international resources, is always a technically and
politically difficult task. The harvests of both salmon
and waterfowl are regulated under international
agreements. That such agreements are difficult was
illustrated by the “fish war” off the northeastern coast
between Canada and the United States in the summer
of 1978.

The ownership of harvest rights by Native Ameri-
cans is a major issue in the Northwest and Alaska.
Future court decisions will have a major influence on
salmon fishing rights, rights to subsistence harvest-
ing, and perhaps on the management obligations of
agencies that are responsible for the habitats of sal-
mon and other animals.

Competition of nonnative species. — Domestic cat-
tle and sheep have had major impacts on wildlife and
fish. In some areas, wild horses and burros now pose
a significant problem in maintaining critical habitat
for many species and frequently have the same kinds
of impacts on riparian zones as those resulting from
overgrazing by cattle. Introduced birds occasionally
compete directly with native birds. In the Caribbean
and Pacific Islands, nonnative animals have had dev-
astating impacts on native fauna and flora.

Health of wild populations.— Although knowledge
about the health of wild populations is still rudimen-
tary, it is known that diseases and parasites are
locally severe in many species. Hatchery-raised fish
are particularly susceptible, as are some native popu-
lations of sockeye salmon. In the past, some parasites
have been transferred from domestic sheep to big-
horn sheep. Fowl cholera enteritis and botulism have
also had severe impacts on waterfowl populations. It
is likely that diseases are more important in limiting
populations than is now generally recognized.

Problems Perceived by States

State agencies responsible for wildlife and fish
management have defined a number of problems that
are barriers to improving the condition of those
resources.*6

Western States particularly feel that shortages of
dollars and skilled biologists are major barriers.

Absolute shortages of suitable habitat and frequent
poor quality habitat are major problem areas. The
management of private lands in the East and on the
West Coast and inadequate cooperation of Federal
land-managing agencies with State fish and wildlife
agencies in the. West are frequently cited problems.

36 Schweitzer, Cushwa and Hoekstra. 1978. op. cit.

139

Agricultural, grazing, timber, and water management
practices are all seen as critical for particular species.

Shortages of animals for transplanting, limited
capabilities of fish hatcheries, overharvesting in the
East, and pesticides and pollution are other problem
areas. Lack of knowledge of the life cycle require-
ments of wildlife and fish, lack of adequate guidelines
for their management, and the need for public under-
standing and acceptance of management activities
have also been noted.

Probiems Perceived by Recreationists

Those who hunt and fish for sport generally share
the managers’ concern for ensuring suitable habitats.
Hunters, regardless of the type of hunting, rank the
most serious problems in the following order:3”

¢ posting of private lands against hunting
and closure of access to public lands

¢ loss of game habitat

¢ littering and trespassing

¢ illegal hunting

In addition, big game hunters say they do not hunt
more because of a lack of animals, a too-high cost of
hunting, concern for their personal safety, and regula-
tions that they find too restrictive.

Most anglers agree that they would like to see im-
proved fish habitat conditions, increased stocking
programs, better access to fishing sites, and stricter
enforcement of fishing regulations. Warmwater
anglers are particularly concerned about water pollu-
tion, competition from speedboats and water skiers,
and too many other anglers. Those who prefer cold-
water fishing call for longer seasons, more “wild”
trout streams, and streams where only fly fishing is
permitted. Salmon anglers frequently feel that a
major need is to restrict commercial fishing.

Opportunities to Maintain and
Enhance Wildlife and Fish Resources

It is clear that the use of each of our forest and
range ecosystems will continue to increase. The
preceding discussion has suggested that the values
inherent in our wildlife and fish resources will gener-
ate more intense pressures on many animal popula-
tions. At the same time, some of the habitats which
are critical to these resources will be lost or degraded
if present trends in the treatment of forest and range
lands continue.

Many of the uses and modifications of our land
and water base that have major undesirable implica-

371975 National Survey of Hunting, Fishing, and Wildlife Asso-
ciated Recreation, op. cit.

140

tions for wildlife and fish resources result from strong
social and economic forces. The resulting problems
cannot be resolved just by the wildlife profession, by
public resource or land managing agencies, or by the
owners of private lands. Their resolution depends
upon a general recognition of the values of wildlife
and fish and a willingness to make the tradeoffs
necessary to capture those values.

This is particularly true with regard to activities
that radically alter aquatic systems, such as the dis-
charge of pollutants, the construction of dams, chan-
nelization, and water diversion projects. Comparable
problems in terrestrial systems include the spread of
agricultural activities to forest and range lands, and
particularly to wetlands, and the encroachment of
residential and industrial developments, especially
those at the edges of waters and on big game winter
ranges. Energy developments already pose major
problems to wild fauna in some areas and will
become more significant, particularly along the ocean
coasts and in the interior West.

The general evolution of wildlife-oriented laws
reflects the realization that Federal legislation is
sometimes essential to deal with these problems. A
supportive body of State laws has also been devel-
oped to deal with more localized problems.

Because forest and range ecosystems will continue
to be used for a variety of purposes, specific wildlife
populations will continue to be depleted for relatively
short periods of time. In general, though, there are a
variety of opportunities for ensuring continued sub-
stantial populations of most species; in the past, tak-
ing advantage of such opportunities has contributed
greatly to the present abundance of the resources.
The major, partially overlapping opportunities, can
be categorized as managing habitats and populations,
regulating or enhancing the use of animals, improv-
ing Federal-State-private cooperative programs
aimed at enhancing the resources on private lands,
and improving the research information base for
management and decisionmaking.

Managing Terrestrial
Habitats and Populations

The most direct approach to ensure that habitats of
particular animals are protected is to eliminate or
strongly control all activities that are not consistent
with that goal. This has frequently been done to pro-
tect habitats for endangered and threatened species.

The National Wildlife Refuge System is probably
the best-known example of forbidding destructive
activities. In 1974, the system included about 40 mil-
lion acres. The refuges are widely distributed, with

The most direct approach to protecting wildlife is the
establishment of refuges. The National Wildlife Refuge System
now includes about 34 million acres in the contiguous States.

half in Alaska and major concentrations in the pot-
hole region of North Dakota and along the Atlantic
Coast. Although the refuges were established pri-
marily to ensure adequate habitat for international
waterfowl populations, they also are critical for many
other birds and mammals that occupy the refuges and
the surrounding lands.

In general, the approach of relying on absolute
prohibitions is expensive in that some of the signifi-
cant values that could be realized from forest and
range lands are foregone. The endangered red-
cockaded woodpecker of the South provides an
illustration.

This bird requires large trees for nesting and a mix-
ture of age classes of mixed pines and hardwoods for
foraging within a short distance of its nest. These
requirements can be met in a forest managed for
timber products, but only at an economic cost. Har-
vest rotations of 80 years in loblolly pine and 100
years in longleaf pine may be necessary. Under a
management regime more concerned with the dollars
or jobs associated with commercial timber products,
at least two salable crops of trees could be raised in
the same time periods. Similarly, an economic cri-
terion would most likely discriminate against the
hardwood component of the forest and lead toward a
monoculture of pine.

The general situation facing the manager charged
with multiple-use management or with coordinating
wildlife management with the management of com-

modity products has been summarized in the context

of timber management on private lands:38
“The management procedures that enhance
wildlife habitats are nearly all of a sort that
cut profits to the timber operator: leaving
strips or corners of mature trees uncut, leav-
ing snags and potential snags in the forest,
keeping clearcut blocks small, desisting
from excessive use of herbicides and pesti-
cides, maintaining some uneven-aged stands
when even-aged stands are simpler to man-
age mechanically.”

On private lands, the loss of profit to the land-
owner is easily understood. On public lands, there is a
less apparent but still real cost because securing
wildlife-related values for society frequently requires
foregoing dollar returns and other resource values
that would be realized if emphasis were placed on the
wildlife.

There is a continuous scale of possible trade-off
costs associated with the management of wildlife or
fish. On the small-cost end are those activities that
have little impact on the production or use of other
resources. Removing logs from streams to allow free
passage for salmon, installing nest boxes for water-
fowl, and transplanting bighorn sheep are examples.
At the large-cost end of the scale are activities that
severely reduce the values derived from other re-
sources. These activities would include fencing live-
stock away from streambanks or removing them
entirely, reserving buffer strips of old-growth timber
along streambanks for cavity-nesting birds and to
minimize stream siltation, and closing forest roads to
recreationists to minimize disturbances of wildlife.

In all but the unusual situations where extraordi-
narily high values (such as those associated with an
endangered species) are at stake, the preferred man-
agement position is somewhere between these ex-
tremes. Historically, most activities modifying wild-
life habitats on forest and range lands have been
carried out in conjunction with grazing, logging, or
road construction. In some instances, careful plan-
ning can insure that wildlife and other resources can
be simultaneously enhanced without additional cost.
In other instances, there is a modest cost, as when
logging costs are increased because the required
spacing of clearings and residual timber stands
requires a somewhat longer haul or slower pace.

38 Leopold, A. S. Wildlife and forest practice. In Wildlife and
America. H. P. Brokaw (ed.) Council on Environmental Quality.
Washington, D.C. p. 108-120. 1978. See separate chapters in the
same book by Burger, G. V. and by F. H. Wagner for comparable
discussions concerning conflicts between wildlife and agriculture
and between wildlife and livestock management, respectively.

141

When wildlife activities fall in this complementary
part of the total scale, more can be done witha given
budget.

Unfortunately, there are few direct opportunities to
directly improve the production of fish as a spinoff of
timber harvesting or range use. Instead, multiple-use
management for fish means avoiding damage from
activities on the land, including avoiding the removal
of streamside vegetation, physical damage to stream-
banks, excessive siltation, and the introduction of
debris into water channels. Many streams that have
been degraded in the past have the potential to once
again become productive habitat for fish through
natural processes if they are adequately protected.
This process can be accelerated through management
practices ranging from planting trees on streambanks
or in denuded areas to mechanically altering a
streambed.

The maintenance of critical water levels through
damming for both waterfowl and fish is an example
of an activity that works to the advantage of several
species. More often, changes in habitat conditions
will favor some species and work against others. This
is another sort of trade-off. A delicate balancing is
sometimes necessary to simultaneously enhance habi-
tats for species that require, say, mature forests and
for species that prosper in openings.

Endangered and threatened species. — Enhance-
ment activities directed at endangered and threatened
species vary widely because this designation includes
dissimilar fauna. For some of these species, notably
those restricted to limited areas, management consists
of preserving the available habitat and protecting it
from disruption. It is sometimes possible to extend
restricted or depleted ranges by transplanting animals
to presently unoccupied or newly developed habitats.
Erecting artificial nests, incubating eggs, and elimi-
nating competitor species might each be applicable in
a particular instance.3?

These species have been a major focus of attention
of all Federal land managing agencies. Substantial
efforts have been necessary to plan, conduct, and
monitor land management activities in a manner that
meets the requirements and the spirit of the Endan-
gered Species Act. Significant budget expenditures,
increased planning time to allow for consultations
and coordination, and delays and occasional reduc-
tions in the production of other resources will con-
tinue to be necessary to adequately protect or
enhance these animals.

39 See, for example, U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish
and Wildlife Service. Puerto Rican parrot on the upswing.
Endangered Species Tech. Bull. 4(1):4-5. 1979.

142

The management of forest and range land for fish largely means
avoiding damage from timber harvesting and grazing activities.

Large mammals. — Many large mammals require
some sort of relatively dense cover for security and
edges or openings for feeding. Those that migrate
also frequently require corridors of cover between
summer and winter ranges or extensive open ranges.

Major considerations in managing habitat for

selected species are listed below:

Species

General considerations
in management

White-tailed Flourish in second-growth,

deer

Elk

Antelope

Javelina

Bighorn
sheep

Black bear

discontinuous forests man-
aged under short rotations.
Mixture of hardwoods and
softwoods preferred. Timber
harvesting in old-growth for-
ests beneficial. Winter range
can be limiting in West.

Require nearly continuous
corridors of mature timber
on migratory routes for cover.
Because winter range is gen-
erally limited in extent, im-
proving forage production on
winter range is critical.

Domestic livestock can be
serious competitors for for-
age on heavily grazed lands.
Pass-through range fencing
necessary to allow free move-
ment. Transplanting is occa-
sionally valuable.

Brush encroachment on heav-
ily grazed southwestern ranges
provides habitat. Most prac-
tices that encourage grasses
are detrimental.

Major problem is limited suit-
able habitat. Transplanting
to unoccupied areas has been
successful. Contact with do-
mestic sheep should be min-
imized to minimize transfer
of parasites.

Generally require large blocks
of forest interspersed with
grasslands. Some timbering
and grazing is tolerable. Con-
frontations with humans fre-
quently lead to eradication or
transplanting.

Moose Require willow bottom ripar-
ian habitats for overwinter-
ing, but can destroy food
supply if not controlled. Con-
trolled burning is often effec-
tive in increasing food supply.
Eastern turkeys require hard-
wood forests with open under-
stories. Rio Grande turkeys
are affected by heavy live-
stock grazing pressures. Mer-
riam’s turkeys require both
forested uplands and open
ponderosa pine stands and
minimal disturbances.

Turkey

Small mammals. — Small mammals include spe-
cies with a variety of often competing habitat require-
ments. For example, because squirrels den in older
trees, long rotations in timber-producing areas are
advantageous. By contrast, rabbits require forests in
early stages of succession, so timber harvesting on
short rotations is most advantageous.

Several systems have been devised to insure a wide
variety of habitats are maintained.4° Timber man-
agement systems that lead to mixtures of newly
regenerated areas, and a variety of age classes are
necessary. Prescribed burning is probably the most
widely-used technique for obtaining desired charac-
teristics of vegetative understories.

Many small mammals depend heavily on the under-
story vegetation in riparian zones and wetlands.
Where those habitats are relatively scarce, as in the
Great Plains and Southwest, the understory vegeta-
tion has frequently been destroyed by cattle. The
most useful first step in management is often simply
fencing; attention can then be directed to stimulating
plant growth.#!

The major available example of direct population
manipulation is the introduction of the nutria to the
United States. This furbearer is now found in at least
14 States and in 1976 yielded furs worth more than $8
million to trappers and fur farmers.

40 See, for example, Holbrook, H. L. A system of wildlife habitat
management on southern National Forests. Wildlife Society Bull.
2(3):119-123. 1974. Siderits, K. and R. E. Radtke. Enhancing
forest wildlife habitat through diversity. Im Trans., No. Amer.
Wildl. and Nat. Res. Conf. 42:425-434. 1977. U.S. Department of
Agriculture. Wildlife habitats in managed forests—the Blue
Mountains of Oregon and Washington. Agr. Handb. 553,
Washington, D.C. 512 p. 1979.

4! See, for example, separate papers by C. R. Ames and by J. P.
Hubbard, /n Johnson, R. R., and D. A. Jones (Tech. Coord.).
Importance, preservation and management of riparian habitat.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Gen. Tech. Rep.
RM-43. Rocky Mountain For. and Range Experiment Station,
Fort Collins, Colo. 217 p. 1977.

143

Most small mammals and upland game birds, such as the ruffed
grouse, require a mixture of cover and openings. Maintaining
suitable openings is a major management problem in forested areas.

Waterfowl. — For most waterfowl species, the
most critical determinants of abundance are the
quantities and qualities of water and wetland habitat
that are available. Some species, such as the mallard,
demonstrate great adaptability; others, such as can-
vasbacks, require more specific conditions. Unlike
the management of resident game habitat, mainte-
nance or creation of habitat in one area may greatly
influence the number of waterfowl in other areas.

The maintenance and enhancement of breeding,
migration, and wintering habitats offer possibilities
for maintaining waterfowl resources as well as
increasing hunting opportunities. Flooding of hard-
wood bottom lands in the Southeast during the fall
and winter, either artificially or through natural
flooding, significantly increases the habitat base and
carrying capacity for waterfowl.

Return irrigation flows are a vital source of water
for migrating and wintering waterfowl, particularly in
the arid West. Loss of this water source or increased
consumption for industrial and residential uses would
have serious impacts on waterfowl. Providing addi-
tional water during the dry seasons would signifi-
cantly increase the habitat base. Other practices for
improving food and cover include mowing, pres-
cribed burning, disking, planting, and — on a limited
scale — carefully managed livestock grazing.

The Fish and Wildlife Service administers about 4
million acres of migratory bird refuges throughout
the four flyways and another 1.4 million acres of
small waterfowl production areas located mostly in
the glaciated prairie pothole region. As of 1975, State
conservation agencies controlled approximately 5

144

million additional acres of land and water of major
value to waterfowl, much of which is open to public
hunting. About half of the acreage was State-owned
and the remainder under lease or other agreement.
About 11,000 private waterfowl hunting clubs con-
trolled, through leases and ownership, more than 5
million acres of waterfowl habitat. Many of these
acres provide opportunities to help ensure healthy
waterfowl populations through cooperative programs.

One notable milestone in the management and
protection of waterfowl and other migratory birds is
the 1976 Convention Between the United States of
America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
Concerning the Conservation of Migratory Birds and
Their Environment. This Convention goes a step
further in the protection of migratory birds than do
similar treaties with Canada, Mexico, and Japan. The
treaty with the Soviet Union also:

e generally prohibits disturbance of nesting
colonies;

@ agrees that both countries will undertake
measures necessary to enhance the habi-
tat of migratory birds and will provide
immediate warning if pollution or de-
struction of habitat occurs or is expected;
and

e calls for special protection of species in
danger of extinction.

Other birds. — As is true for small mammals, the
many species of resident and common migrant birds
in the Nation have a variety of habitat requirements.
In general, the habitat requirements for native non-
game birds can be met on forest lands if representa-
tive vegetation types, age classes, and forest openings
are maintained and interspersed on a management-
unit basis. To adequately provide for cavity nesters,
some portion must be managed on long rotations
and/or some trees not harvested at all. After timber is
harvested, to the extent that is feasible, slash should
be left on the ground and not chopped or burned.*?

On range lands, the first concerns are to avoid
overgrazing and to minimize the trampling of vegeta-
tion near water sources. Periodically resting lands
from grazing for at least a year is beneficial. Because
grasslands have little vertical vegetative structure,
bird populations are usually smaller than on forest
lands. Maintaining occasional areas in forbs and
shrubs and small trees, rather than converting to pure
grass, will lead to the greatest variety of species.

42 See separate papers by Zeedyk, W. D., by K. E. Evans, R. F.
Buttery, and P. W. Shields, and by J. W. Thomas and others. /n
Symposium on management of forest and range habitats for non-
game birds. Smith, D. R. (Tech. Coord.). Forest Service, Gen.
Tech. Rep. WO-1. 343 p. Washington, D.C. 1975. Also see Whit-

comb, R. F. and others. Island biogeography and conservation:
strategy and limitations. Science 193:1030-1032. 1976.

Increasing supplies of water and building structures
and fences also is often beneficial.

Upland game birds generally require a mixture of
cover and openings. Prescribed burning, moderate
grazing, logging, and planting food crops are benefi-
cial for bobwhite quail, ruffed grouse, and woodcock.
A major management problem at this time in eastern
hardwood and mixed hardwood and pine forests is
maintaining the forest openings that are gradually
closing as the forests age. Large-scale impoundments,
the conversion of bottom land forests to croplands
and improved pastures, and urban development pose
the major threats to these species. By contrast, popu-
lations of mourning doves prosper as certain agricul-
tural practices become more intensive.

Recreational demands for these birds have been
much greater than could be supported by native wild
populations. Three of the most popular game species
have been introduced to this country: Ring-necked
pheasant, Hungarian partridge, and chukar par-
tridge. There are extensive programs by which these
and other birds are produced artificially and then
released or sold to private owners of hunting lands.

Managing Fish Habitats and Populations

The general means available to enhance fish popu-
lations are to increase the acreage of fishable waters,
to increase the productivity of existing waters, and to
supplement wild populations with hatchery-produced
fish.

Increasing acreage of fishable waters. —In 1965, a
State-by-State inventory showed about 82 million
acres of fresh waters in the United States capable of
supporting fish. Aside from the Great Lakes, this
total included about 6 million acres of cold waters
and 24 million acres of warm waters in the contiguous
48 States. By the year 2000, it was expected that the
total acreages of these cold waters should be.
increased by about one-quarter and warm waters by
about one-third (table 4.19). Essentially all increases
would be in new impoundments, particularly of
public reservoirs and privately-owned farm ponds.
About 300,000 acres of streams would be lost through
inundation following reservoir construction.43

“U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service.
National survey of needs for hatchery fish. Resource Pub. 65.
Washington, D.C. 1968. The estimates for 1965 are 16 percent
higher for warm waters and 2 percent higher for cold waters than
those reported by the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review
Commission in 1962. That earlier report suggested that 10 million
more acres would be needed by 2000 if future anglers were to have
the opportunities available to anglers in 1960; the 1968 report
suggested that target would be met.

Table 4.19 — Fishable freshwaters of the United
States in 1965 and projections to 2000

(Million acres)

Year

a ena

Category of water

Total fishing waters 10.1
Great Lakes
Alaska
Other 10.1
Total fishing waters 10.1
Warm waters' 8.7
Cold waters' 1.4
Public fishing waters 8.5
Streams and rivers -0.3
Other 8.8
Private fishing waters lees
Farm ponds 1.5

Other

‘Cold waters are generally defined as those that can support salmonids and
warm waters as those that cannot. About 7 million acres categorized as co!d water
can, in fact, also support warmwater species and 0.3 million acres categorized as
warm water can also support coldwater species.

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. National
survey of needs for hatchery fish. Resource Pub. 63. 71 p. Washington, D.C. 1968.

In 1960, about three-quarters of all impounded
water surface acreage in the contiguous States was in
reservoirs larger than 500 acres. From 1970 to 1976,
nearly 500 new reservoirs of this size-class were com-
pleted, increasing the total surface acreage by half,
from 6.5 to 9.8 million acres.44 The 1976 distribution
of these reservoirs across the Nation was:

Section | Millions of acres

Northeast 0.5

North Central 0.8

Southeast 0.9

South Central 4.0

Rocky Mountains- 2.6
Great Plains

Pacific Coast 0.9
Total 7]

44 Jenkins, R. M., U.S. reservoir inventory. U.S. Department of
the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Reservoir
Research Program. (mimeo) Fayetteville, Ark. 1976. A reservoir is
here defined as an impoundment with a mean annual pool of 500
acres or more; natural lakes regulated by a dam are included if the
original volume of water has been at least doubled.

145

A substantial number of smaller fishing lakes have
also been constructed or restored over the years. For
example, $30 million in cooperative Federal-State
funds have been spent in the last 25 years to create
38,000 acres of fishable waters. About half this
acreage is in the South Central and Great Plains
sections.45

Making it possible for anadromous fish to travel
up streams has the effect of creating new spawning
and rearing habitat for them. In the contiguous
States, this generally has included removing debris,
screening pipes that are used to withdraw water for
various purposes, and ensuring that fish ladders or
passageways are included in structures intended to
develop water resources. While these activities are
becoming more common in Alaska, the major efforts
there are in extending natural habitats by ensuring
access to streams not previously available to salmon.
Current efforts to restore Atlantic salmon runs in the
Northeast include artificial propagation and habitat
improvement, as well as creating passageways past
existing dams to spawning and rearing areas.

Increasing productivity of waters. — Intensive man-
agement techniques are most highly developed for
enclosed bodies of water. Undesirable species are poi-
soned or removed from ponds and small lakes or
reservoirs and replaced with desirable species, often
in conjunction with the construction of structures
that regulate water levels. Other techniques include
fertilizing to stimulate food production and installing
nesting and rearing cover.

Relatively new Federal and State laws designed to
reduce the pollution of the Nation’s waters will
undoubtedly increase the productivity for fish of
many rivers and streams. For example, the Colorado
State Division of Wildlife has estimated that water
quality improvement could increase the proportion of
streams capable of sustaining trout populations in the
State by 30 percent. To the extent that pollution is
concentrated in and near urban centers, reductions in
pollution can be expected to increase fishing oppor-
tunities where demands are greatest while reducing
travel costs for many users.*¢

Increasing hatchery production. — A _ substantial
share of the freshwater and anadromous sport and
commercial fish caught in the United States are pro-

45 Massmann, W. H. Accomplishments under the Federal aid in
fish restoration program, 1950-1975. United States Department of
the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D.C. 37 p.
1976.

46 Walsh, R. G. Recreational user benefits from water quality
improvement. Jn Outdoor recreation: advances in application of
economics. Hughes, J. M. and R. D. Lloyd (comp.), U.S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture, Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-2.
Washington, D.C. p. 121-132. 1977.

146

duced in hatcheries and then stocked in fishing
waters. In 1965, a survey of likely future hatchery
capacities and stocking needs to maintain reasonable
catches by anglers of trout and warmwater fishes
indicated that about 90 percent of requirements
might be met in 2000 (table 4.20). The southern States
were expected to have the greatest difficulty in meet-
ing requirements for trout, and the south-central and
western States the greatest difficulties in meeting
requirements for warmwater species.4”

Private hatcheries were expected to continue to
supply 3-4 percent of the trout and 1-2 percent of the
warmwater fishes. There were expected to be changes
in the proportions of fishing waters that are stocked:

Estimated | Anticipated
Type of water in 1965 in 2000

Public lakes

& streams 34 percent 21 percent
Public reservoirs 55 percent 66 percent
Private waters 11 percent 13 percent

For both categories of fish, these projections may
be overoptimistic because they do not consider the
sizes of fish that will be required in the future. In
1965, the greatest shortages occurred in producing
“catchable” fish. To the extent that urban-related
reservoirs and put-and-take fishing continue to
increase in popularity, there will be a greater demand
for these relatively large (and expensive-to-produce)
fish.

In 1970, it was estimated that taking advantage of
all opportunities to increase hatchery production and
to upgrade the productivity of rivers and streams in
the Northwest and Alaska could increase total sal-
mon production by half by the end of the century.
The programs that seemed most likely to be imple-
mented promised about a 10 percent increase in sal-
mon production.*8

In 1978, planned hatchery expansions and other
activities were the bases for estimates that the produc-
tion of adult salmon and steelhead available to Wash-
ington State commercial and recreational fishermen
would be increased by one-half or by about 5.5 mil-
lion adult fish per year within a decade. Additional

47U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service.
National survey of needs for hatchery fish. Res. Pub. 63. 71 p.
Washington, D.C. 1968.

48U.S. Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries
Service. Basic economic indicators: Salmon, 1947-72. Current
Fisheries Statistics No. 6129.p. 33. Washington, D.C. 1973. Also
see U.S. Department of Commerce. A marine fisheries program
for the Nation. (Statement of Secretary of Commerce). Wash-
ington, D.C. 74 p. 1967.

Improvements such as fish ladders around dams let anadromous fish travel upstream to spawn.

Increasing hatchery production is one way of meeting growing
demands for fishing.

efforts could add another 6.0 million adult fish an-
nually within 10 years (at least doubling the State’s
current harvest) at a cost of at least $70 million in
(largely FederaJ) capital investments and operation
and maintenance costs of $7 million per year.4? _

Several of the major success stories in meeting
recreational demands for fishing are due to the ability
of some anadromous species to prosper when re-
stricted to freshwater. Initially, striped bass were res-
tricted to Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters. In the late
1800’s, they were introduced to the West Coast and
subsequently to inland areas. They are now found in
38 States.5°

To balance such spectacular success stories, there
have been many more attempts that have failed.
Transplanting living organisms is always a gamble, as
it the artificial propagation of fish. Hatchery pro-
duction is generally most valuable when used to sup-
plement wild populations for relatively brief periods.

49 Merkel, J. C., D. L. Alverson, and J. H. Hough. Settlement
plan for Washington State salmon and _ steelhead fisheries.
Regional Team of the Federal Task Force on Washington State
Fisheries (Dept. Justice, Commerce, and Interior). 348 p. Washing-
ton, D.C. 1978. The proposal also calls for certain stream
enhancement, research, monitoring, and regulatory activities.

50 Massmann, op. cit.

147

Table 4.20. — Capacities of fish hatcheries to
produce trout and warmwater fish in the
contiguous United States and the relationships
to production requirements by section,
1965 to 2000'

Capacity as
proportion of
requirements

Millions of fish Percent

Capacity
Section

Trout
Northeast 23 37 ia ATS 115
North Central 16 45 109 85 85
Southeast 96 83 70

South Central

Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains

Pacific Coast

Total

34 37 28

104 106 104
93

Warmwater species
Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central
Rocky Mountains

and Great Plains

Pacific Coast

Total

88 87 88
89 90 88
16 57 67

85 76 79
15 55 59

1,189 1,973 85 86

‘In 1965, 90 percent and 47 percent of the requirements for catchable trout and
warmwater species, respectively, were produced.

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. National
survey of needs for hatchery fish. Resource Pub. 63. 71 p. Washington, D.C. 1968.

To produce a sustainable increase in the numbers of
fish usually requires that the fish-producing acreage
or carrying capacity be increased. The fact that
hatchery operations are sometimes desirable suggests
the preservation of wild populations and _ their
habitats has substantial economic values.>!

Managing Wildlife and Fish Use

Given the many increasing demands on our wildlife
and fish resources, opportunities to manage use are
being more and more viewed as needs to limit use.
More people participating means a change in the type
of recreational experience. In the years to come,
either the numbers of people permitted to use the
resources will be limited, or crowding and lower suc-
cess ratios will follow.

Sportsmen who wish to hunt several big game spe-
cies in some areas already must take their chances

51 Opportunities and problems associated with the artificial
propagation of salmonids are discussed by Cooper, E. L., E. O.
Salo, and H. Tanner. Salmonid management. Trout 15(1): Special
supplement, 32 p. 1974.

148

with lottery systems, particularly for elk, moose,
mountain goats, bighorn sheep, and antelope. For
other species, limits on season takes have become
more restrictive. These limitations are likely to con-
tinue to be necessary but they can sometimes be
relieved by applying good habitat and population
management practices more extensively.

It has long been the custom to require licenses for
hunting and fishing, with the receipts used to enforce
regulations and to fund activities for improving habi-
tat and population. One approach that has been fre-
quently discussed, both to provide more adequate
funding and to limit use, is to increase basic license
fees or to add a surcharge for hunting in particular
areas. This issue is politically volatile and each pro-
posal has encountered opposition, primarily on the
grounds of equity, concern for impacts on total
receipts, and Federal-State jurisdictional disputes.*?

Much higher levels of nonconsumptive uses are
possible in most parts of the Nation. Meeting such
demands generally amounts to providing nondestruc-
tive access and publicizing opportunities for wildlife
observation. In undeveloped areas, new trails often
can be constructed at low cost, perhaps with self-
guiding signs, and when one area is overused, others
can be publicized. However, because most wildlife
observation takes place near where people live, meet-
ing nonconsumptive demands frequently requires
providing permanent, hardened trails and sites in or
near urban areas.

The general problem of limited access to private
lands is discussed in the next section, but this prob-
lem also is important on public lands. In some in-
stances, access must be limited to protect the wildlife
and fish resources or to protect fragile areas from
physical degradation. In other instances, improved
access is possible. In the past 25 years, 800,000 acres
of stillwaters and 2,000 miles of free-flowing streams
have become available for fishing through the pur-
chase and development of access sites.

Opportunities for Cooperative
Activities on Private Lands

Privately-owned forest and range lands play a
major role in providing key habitats for waterfowl
and in providing opportunities for hunting — espe-
cially for small game mammals, upland game birds,
and waterfowl—and for warmwater fishing. In
heavily farmed areas, particularly in the Great Plains,
fence rows and shelterbelts on private lands fre-

52 Hoover, R. L. User fees for hunting and fishing on public
lands. Publications DOW-RM-M-6-78, Colorado Division of
Wildlife, Denver, 65 p. 1978.

quently provide the principal habitat over relatively
large areas for a number of species of birds and small
mammals.

Past efforts of private groups and public agencies
have improved conditions for wildlife and fish and
have helped increase opportunities for use of these
resources on private lands. Conservation groups such
as the Audubon Society, Nature Conservancy, Isaak
Walton League, and The Wildlife Federation have
worked at national and local levels to foster protec-
tion and improvement of fish and wildlife habitat.
Organized groups of hunters and anglers have helped
increase the general awareness of the values of these
resources and have been sources of income to land-
owners. Some States directly compensate farmers for
damages to their crops by big game and some provide
relatively low tax rates for critical habitats, par-
ticularly for wetlands. Federal, State, and local levels
of government have provided general education
and limited technical assistance and cost-sharing
programs.

But much more could be done. Numerous surveys
have shown that landowners often regard the enjoy-
ment of wildlife as a major benefit of owning a few
acres of land. There are inexpensive options for
attracting more wild animals available to most of
these owners. Leaving selected trees and shrubs when
clearing land, allowing weeds to grow along fences,
modifying harvest practices to favor certain types of
trees, and creating openings in woodlots all can
greatly improve conditions for a wide variety of birds
and small mammals.

Limited access to private lands remains a major
complaint of sportsmen. But lands are posted against
public use for many reasons, including the very real
threat of claims for liability if recreationists are
injured. Several States have passed laws that partially
relieve landowners of liability not involving negli-
gence when hunters and fishermen use their property.
Some insurance companies provide policies for hunt-
ing and fishing use, but most landowners do not
know about them. Such options for protection
against liability could be improved and expanded and
publicized more effectively.53

Even when liability and other problems such as
littering and vandalism are overcome, it is still
unreasonable to expect owners to open their lands
unless they are adequately compensated. This fre-
quently requires informing owners about the possibil-
ities for establishing a business and then setting up
some mechanism to help them get started.

53 See the chapter on outdoor recreation in this report for a more
complete discussion of the extent and reasons for closures of pri-
vate lands to hunters, anglers, and other recreationists.

Technical and financial assistance for increasing and improving
habitat on private lands can contribute to meeting the growing
demands on wildlife and fish resources.

A number of wood-products companies in the
South (where there is relatively little public land)
have been successful in converting the wildlife and
fish on their lands into cash crops by charging a daily
use fee or selling seasonal leases on hunting and fish-
ing rights. Some of these firms have entered into
agreements whereby State wildlife agencies are
responsible for wildlife management. Examples of
profitable fish and wildlife-centered operations could
be publicized and technical assistance provided to
landowners to get them started.

To help owners of smaller tracts of land, several
State agencies also have programs for game and fish
management in which they manage aggregations of
private tracts for hunting and fishing. Recreationists
purchase annual hunting or fishing permits and the
landowners receive a portion of the receipts. Such
programs could be made more generally available.

Since the second World War, many farm ponds and
other impoundments have been improved for fishing,
but little attention has been paid to the thousands of
miles of small warmwater streams on private lands.
Similarly, little attention has been paid to the control
of predators or to animal damage on private owner-
ships in the East. As on public lands, coyotes and
free-running dogs occasionally pose problems for
deer and other wild animals. Porcupines seriously
damage trees in particular areas. And through their
dam building and subsequent flooding of nearby
lands, beavers can have a devastating local impact on
timber management programs and destroy bottom-
land hardwoods that provide key habitats for other
species.

149

Historically, most Federal-State cooperative tech-
nical assistance and cost-sharing programs directed at
landowners have concentrated on one or two com-
modity products. These programs also provide a
ready vehicle for informing owners about wildlife
enhancement opportunities when considering forest,
range, and agriculture management practices.

Landowners usually do not know that standard
commodity practices can be modified to help protect
and enhance wildlife, often at low cost. Relatively
minor changes in the location, intensity, and timing
of land treatments can often be valuable. For exam-
ple, if fall plowing is limited, waste grain or green
grass shoots can attract more waterfowl. As was pre-
viously mentioned, other practices that can some-
times be used to improve wildlife food and cover
including mowing, disking, planting, and carefully
controlling livestock grazing.

On lands that support commercially valuable
timber, attention to how timber harvesting is carried
out can often improve the wildlife carrying capacity
of the land by providing more food and cover. Unfor-
tunately, even when options are generally under-
stood, landowners frequently do not really know
where to turn for technical assistance for multi-
resource planning and implementation. To take full
advantage of such opportunities, agencies and other
organizations would have to improve coordination of
technical assistance and information programs
substantially.54

In addition te direct assistance programs, lands
have also been bought outright by conservation
groups and public agencies to ensure preservation of
key habitats, most notably for waterfowl in the
northern Great Plains. Easements have been pur-
chased to provide an economic incentive to land-
owners to not drain, burn, or fill wetlands, while
allowing use of those areas for grazing, haying, and
cultivation in the dry season. The Fish and Wildlife
Improvement Act of 1978 recently provided for con-
tinuing purchases of such “conservation easements.”

In general, at least the costs of improving habitat
conditions or providing recreational opportunities

54The need to improve coordination among public assistance
programs was a frequent comment received during public review of
the draft of this assessment document. The owners of relatively
small acreages still face a variety of practical problems even when
they have the desire to invest in their lands and when adequate
technical assistance programs are available. These problems
include diseconomies of small scale, difficulties in hiring skilled
labor, and difficulties in acquiring investment capital. For discus-
sion of the problems and the approaches available for overcoming
them through cooperative programs among public and private
groups, see: U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Federal role in
the conservation and management of private nonindustrial forest
lands. Washington, D.C. 63 p. plus appendices. 1978.

150

must be covered if private landowners are to become
interested in such activities. While public ownership
is needed in some instances to protect key habitats,
most wildlife- and fish-related recreational oppor-
tunities will continue to be on private lands, simply
because there are more private than public lands.

Opportunities for Research

The ability to satisfy future demands for the
market, social, and ecological values of wildlife and
fish associated with forest and range lands will con-
tinue to depend on the understanding of those
resources and progress in translating that understand-
ing into a form that can be used by those who decide
on budgets and by on-the-ground managers of land
and water resources.

In recognition of the rapid changes occurring in the
resource base, recent State and Federal legislation
has accelerated planning processes that will largely
determine conditions for many years to come. For
example, the National Forest Management Act of
1976 requires that intensive land and resource man-
agement planning be completed on all National
Forests by 1985. To the extent that critical informa-
tion on wildlife and fish resources is not available, it
is likely that the activities that follow planning will be
less effective than they could be.

During late 1977 and early 1978, a series of work-
shops were held throughout the United States to
define the major research needs related to forest and
range lands. The following were rated as the subjects
needing top priority in research programs concerning
wildlife and fish:

e Evaluate the effects of prescribed burning
techniques, silvicultural practices, and
livestock grazing systems on water quality
and on wildlife and fish habitats; develop
improved management alternatives where
advantageous.

e Develop multiple use management strate-
gies for aquatic and associated riparian
ecosystems that will protect, rehabilitate,
and enhance wildlife and fish habitats.

e Define minimum habitat conditions
needed to maintain populations of vari-
ous wildlife species.

e Establish a system for placing quantita-
tive values on such non-marketed forest
and range resources such as wildlife.

e Determine the impacts of wilderness
designation and of general recreation
activities on the future abundance and
diversity of wildlife.

The selection of these and other topics and
experience gained in assembling this document
suggest more comprehensive information and im-
proved analytical techniques are needed to better
describe the status of wildlife and fish resources, to
define effective and efficient management strategies
to improve that status, and to evaluate those
strategies to ensure the most effective activities
receive the highest priorities under limited budgets.

Except for a few recreationally and commercially
important species, little quantitative information is
available on either the demand for or supply of wild-
life and fish populations. The only widely available
information concerns the numbers of licenses sold to
hunters and anglers and the numbers of animals and
fish harvested. No State believes it has credible
information of this type for more than 40 species;
most are comfortable only when speaking to half that
number. Credible estimates of statewide population
levels are still rarer, and estimates of the numbers of
nonconsumptive users are fragmentary at best. More
complete information is available for some much
smaller areas, but it probably never includes more
than a small fraction of the entire spectrum of fauna.
In many areas, available information is inadequate to
allow a complete list of vertebrate species to be
compiled.

These kinds of data are needed simply to monitor
what people want and the present conditions of wild-
life and fish, so that the greatest needs for manage-
ment programs to correct unsatisfactory conditions
can be identified. Identifying programs that will be of
the greatest benefit in the future requires projecting
demands and populations and the availability of
those populations to users. At this time, projecting
demands for these resources is almost entirely a mat-
ter of personal judgment; the understanding of the
determinants of demand is still rudimentary.

The state of the art of projecting population levels
is relatively advanced for a few species of importance
to consumptive users. Unfortunately, traditional ap-
proaches for dealing with one species at a time have
two major drawbacks: the process is so expensive and
slow that serious attention is seldom focused on
“minor” species and little information is gained about
the interrelationships within faunal communities.
Current work in developing “species profiles” as a
basis for grouping species by similar habitat require-
ments promises to allow at least first-order projec-
tions of the conditions of entire faunal communities
within the near future and to provide a comprehen-
sive basis for more detailed species-by-species anal-
yses that will be needed for improved projections.

A major constraint on projecting wildlife condi-
tions is the dearth of inventory data defining the
extent of existing habitats. No comprehensive and
quantitative inventory of available habitats exists for
any substantial part of the Nation, nor are there a
commonly accepted conceptual basis and set of tools
for developing such an inventory.°> To predict condi-
tions and develop management programs oriented to
the future, quantitative measurements are needed
that can be related to inventory data on other re-
sources. The extent to which habitat measurements
can be correlated with existing historical data, and
particularly with the relatively extensive information
that is available for timber resources, will determine
the ability to develop historical trends and projections.

To develop management strategies that are most
likely to enhance wildlife and fish in the future, it is
necessary to better understand the impacts on wildlife
and fish of both major and minor changes in the land
and water base. The conversion of forest and range
lands to agricultural and urban uses will continue,
and it is likely that energy and water-related develop-
ments will expand considerably.

What are the quantitative implications of man-
agement activities to animal populations? How many
more deer or salmon will be produced by following a
particular habitat management regime or by limiting
consumptive use? With few exceptions, we have little
ability to quantitatively predict the consequences of
alternative combinations of habitat manipulation and
use regulation. Of general concern in the manage-
ment of terrestrial species are the potential gains and
losses of using controlled fire and chemicals and care-
fully tailored silvicultural and livestock grazing
techniques.

Insects, diseases, and wild fires have direct impacts
on the vegetation that provides habitat for wildlife
and indirect impacts on aquatic habitats. Research is
needed to define short-term and long-term conse-
quences to wild fauna and to utilize or compensate
for these potentially destructive agents in forest and
range land management.

In general, good management strategies are those
that lead to desired conditions most quickly, are eco-
nomically efficient, place low demands on budgets,
and have low negative impacts on other resources.
Insuring desirable conditions for wildlife and fish
populations frequently imposes constraints on the
uses of other resources. Because such constraints
imply very real costs, research is needed to set those

55 Hirsch, A., W. B. Krohn, D. L. Schweitzer, and C. H. Thomas.

Trends and needs in Federal inventories of wildlife habitat. In
Trans. No. Amer. Wildl. and Natur. Resource Conf. 44:267-284.
1979.

151

constraints as precisely as possible so that neither
excessive safety margins nor inadequate guidelines
dominate. Where management techniques affect only
wildlife or fish resources, the major need is to develop
cost-effective approaches.

What is the expected gain from spending dollars in
different ways? If the physical consequences of
expenditures can be predicted, what are the social
and economic implications? Such questions are rele-
vant to those who must decide how limited funds are
to be distributed among many apparently worthy
possibilities. The state of the art in conducting such
evaluations of programs centered on wildlife and fish
resources is far behind that concerning commodity
values because the nonmarket aspects make it a more
demanding task, and because the resources devoted
to making such evaluations have never approached
the scale of the many efforts to evaluate water devel-
opments, timber harvesting, and similar activities.

152

Expressing ecological values in a manner that is com-
parable to market values of commodity resources is
particularly difficult.

There is also a need to define the values of trade-
offs. As recognized in the Fish and Wildlife Coordi-
nation Act, it is appropriate to charge certain mitiga-
tion costs for wildlife and fish to water resource
development projects. Similarly, it may also be
appropriate to charge foregone values due to restric-
tions on timber harvesting along streambanks to local
fisheries. In such cases, foregone values should be
charged as costs against the anticipated gains of imple-
menting a particular management strategy if rea-
soned decisions are to be made.

As the pressure for a wide spectrum of goods and
services from forest and range lands increases, the
need for more comprehensive information on the full
range of wildlife and fish species will intensify.

Chapter 5. — Range

The Nation’s Range Base

This chapter includes (1) a description of the range
resource base, its distribution, ownership, condition,
utilization, and management; (2) a discussion of the
demand for range grazing by livestock as influenced
by national demands for meat and fiber; (3) projec-
tions of the supply of range grazing; (4) demand-
supply relationships; and (5) the opportunities and
research needed for improving and managing the
range resource to increase supplies of range grazing.
The discussion concentrates on the use of forests and
rangelands for livestock grazing. Other products and
uses, such as wildlife, water, recreation, and timber
and their interactions, are discussed in other chapters
in this report.

The material presented here relies heavily on the
conceptual framework and issue delineation of “The
Nation’s Range Resources — A Forest-Range Envi-
ronmental Study,”! “Opportunities to Increase Red
Meat Production from Ranges of the United States,”?
and “The Nation’s Renewable Resources — an Assess-
ment.”3 Many agencies and many people cooperated
in developing the resource data and providing infor-
mation about condition and productivity of the range
resource.4

Definition of range. — Range is land that provides
or is capable of providing forage for grazing or brows-
ing animals. It includes all grasslands and shrublands
(collectively called rangelands) and those forest lands
that will continually or periodically, naturally or
through management, support an understory of her-
baceous or shrubby vegetation that provides forage
for grazing and browsing animals. Also included are
those lands that have been seeded to nonnative plants
but are managed as if the species were native.’ The
pinyon-juniper and chaparral-mountain shrub eco-
systems, classed as other forest land in the chapter on

'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. The Nation’s
range resource—a forest-range environmental study. Forest
Resource Rep. 19, 147 p., illus. 1972.

2U.S. Department of Agriculture, Interagency Work Group.
Opportunities to increase red meat production from ranges of the
United States. Washington, D.C., 100 p. 1974.

3U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. The Nation’s
renewable resources — an assessment, 1975. Forest Resource Rep.
21, 243, p., illus. 1977.

4 Data on non-Federal lands were provided by the Soil Conser-
vation Service and by State agencies. Data about the Federal lands
were provided by the Bureau of Indian Affairs, Bureau of Land
Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, Forest Service, National
Park Service, and the Department of Defense. In addition, more
than 200 people from Federal and State agencies and universities
participated in four workshops. They developed production co-
efficients and estimates of range potential.

5 Adapted from the Glossary of range terms used in range man-
agement, Society for Range Management, 32 p. 1964.

Forest and Range Lands, are included in rangelands
in this chapter because their responses to range man-
agement principles and practices are similar to those
of shrubland ecosystems.® Lands designated as im-
proved pasture, cropland pasture, and grazed crop-
land are not included in the range base used in this
assessment because they are routinely cultivated,
seeded, fertilized, or irrigated.’

Description of the range. — A complex array of 54
ecosystems, characterized by a variety of vegetation
life forms, makes up the Nation’s range base. More
than half the range area is dominated by grasslands
and shrublands and the balance by coniferous and
deciduous forests. In the Pacific Coast area, the range-
land ecosystems are characterized by annual grasses,
bunchgrasses, sagebrush, chaparral, and mountain
meadows while the forests are primarily coniferous.
The arid and semiarid ranges of the Southwest and
the Intermountain Great Basin area are dominated by
a complex of bunchgrasses, annual grasses, cacti,
salt-tolerant shrubs, sagebrush, pinyonjuniper, and
chaparral. A mosaic of sagebrush, grasslands, mead-
ows, aspen, and conifers makes up the rangelands
and forests of the Rocky Mountains. East of the
Rockies are the Great Plains ecosystems character-
ized by short grasses and midgrasses and low shrubs
on the western part of the plains, and by tall grasses,
shrubs, shinnery, and savanna on the eastern edge.
East of the 95th meridian, forest ecosystems domi-
nate the landscape with only remnants of prairie and
wet grasslands.

Distribution

When the Europeans first colonized what is now
the United States, virtually all of the 2.255 billion
acres of land were forests or rangelands. As settle-
ments occurred, first in the Southwest in the early
1500’s and later in the East, forests and rangelands
were converted into cropland and pastureland to
provide food for the people and forage for livestock.
Later, towns, cities, highways, railroads, mining, and
other industrial activities further encroached upon
the forests and rangelands. By 1976, about 1,557 mil-
lion acres, or 69 percent of the Nation’s land area,
remained as forests and rangelands (table 2.1). In the
lower 48 States, 64 percent of the land area remains

6 The pinyon-juniper and chaparral-mountain shrub ecosystems

occupy 62,782,000 acres in the 17 western States (table 2.8). There-
fore, in this chapter, total forest area is short and total rangeland
long by that amount as compared to forests and rangelands in the
chapter on Forest and Range Lands.

7 These lands were classified according to accepted definitions
and standards developed by the Soil Conservation Service and are
included in “other lands,” table 2.1.

155

occupied by forests and rangelands and 73 percent in
the 17 western States (fig. 5.1).

Each State still has a significant proportion of its
total land area classified as forests or rangelands (figs.
2.2 and 2.3). Alaska has the largest proportion, 97
percent. Even the highly industrialized and densely
populated States of the Northeast such as Pennsyl-
vania, New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut
still have well over half of their respective land areas
occupied by forests. Only in North Dakota, Iowa,
Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio do forests and rangelands
occupy less than 30 percent of the land area.

The forests and rangelands of Hawaii and the
island territories and possessions, while important
locally (e.g., 72 percent of Hawaii is either forests or
rangelands), make up less than 0.5 percent of the
Nation’s range base.

The location and distribution of the forests and
rangelands influence the uses made of them, espe-
cially with respect to livestock grazing. Where range-
lands and forests occupy much of the land area, live-
stock grazing is almost always an important use of
the land. Often it is the major use. In those areas,
range grazing and the activities associated with it
attain a local and even regional importance, econom-
ically, socially, and culturally, that may far transcend
its importance from a broader standpoint.

Most people commonly think of livestock grazing
in the 17 western States when the Nation’s range and
its resources and uses are discussed. There is good
reason for this thinking. Ninety-nine percent of the
650 million acres of rangeland in the contiguous 48
States and 37 percent of the forest lands are in these
States (fig. 5.2). Only | percent of the rangelands,

Figure 5.1

mainly remnants of the prairie and wet grassland eco-
systems, are in the eastern 31 States and most of that
is in the South.’ Although the eastern States do have
the bulk (63 percent) of the forest lands, only a small
portion of those lands is grazed. They do, however,
have a potential to make a greater contribution to the
Nation’s forage supply through conversion of forest
to improved pasture.

Ownership

Non-Federal owners control over three-fourths of
the forest lands and almost two-thirds of the range-
lands in the contiguous States (fig. 5.3). Except for
local zoning ordinances and laws relating to public
health and safety, private landowners are seldom con-
strained by laws or regulations concerning livestock
use of their lands. They can use any system of grazing
or level of management they desire.

Federal lands, on the other hand, are very directly
affected by Federal laws and regulations relating to
uses made of the land. The Bureau of Land Manage-
ment and the Forest Service, the two largest Federal
land managing agencies, are required to manage the
public lands they administer in accordance with
multiple-use principles and policies and to maintain

8In this chapter, Oklahoma and Texas are included in the Great

Plains Region and not in the South as in the other chapters. The
physiography, climate, vegetation, soils, and ecological relation-
ships in Oklahoma and Texas are more closely identified with
Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota than with
any other aggregation of States. As a result, the range relationships
and interactions concerned with land use, range management
practices, economics, culture, and social values are far more
similar to Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas than to Louisiana,
Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and the other southern States.

Land Area of the United States by Type, 1976

Mil. Acres

Rangeland
883

Forest
674

50 States
(2,255)

Contiguous States
(1,888)

17 Western States
(1,155)

156

Figure 5.2

Geographic Distribution of Forests and Rangelands

in the Contiguous States, 1976
Mil. Acres

Rocky
Mountains
and

Great Plains

Forest
(553)

Rangeland
(650)

Figure 5.3

Ownership of Range in the Contiguous States, 1976

Mil. Acres
Bureau

of Land
Management

Non-Federal

Other
816

Federal

Total Range
(1203)

Forest Land
(553)

Rangeland
(650)

the productivity of those lands. Livestock grazing is
recognized as one of the multiple uses and must be
managed consistent with maintaining the productiv-
ity of the land. Lands such as national parks, wildlife
refuges, and military reservations are administered by
other Federal agencies and are not managed for mul-
tiple uses, and grazing by livestock is often limited or
prohibited. As a result, most of these Federal lands
cannot be considered as suppliers of range grazing
under present laws and regulations.

Condition of the Rangelands

Many things may affect the productivity of the
Nation’s forests and rangelands. Natural catastrophes
such as wildfires, insect and disease outbreaks, and
prolonged droughts can drastically modify the vege-
tation cover, at least for a short time. Some of man’s
activities such as timber harvesting, off-road vehicles,
concentrated recreational use, and herbicides also
modify vegetation and soils. But, of all of man’s activ-

157

ities, grazing by livestock has been the most wide-
spread and prolonged use and has had the most pro-
found effect upon the Nation’s ranges.

Most of the Nation’s forests and rangelands have
been grazed by livestock for well over 100 years —
some for over 450 years. Ponce de Leon is believed to
have introduced livestock to Florida in 1519. Live-
stock first trod the arid and semiarid rangeland of the
Southwest in 1540 when the Spanish captain general
Coronado took with him “1,000 horses and 500 of
our cows and more than 5,000 rams and ewes” on his
march through Colorado and Kansas in his quest for
the fabled seven golden cities of Cibola.°

In the eastern States, livestock grazing was an early
and important use of the forest land. By 1614, James-
town Colony, Virginia, was “. . . furnished with two
hundred neate cattell, as many goates, infinite hogges
in heards all over the wood . . .”.!° By the middle of
the 1600’s and early 1700's, herds of wild cattle and
horses were considered as troublesome problems in
the forested areas of the East Coast.!!

As settlement of the New World occurred, livestock
were moved eastward and northward from the South-
west and westward from the East Coast for the ‘next
200 to 300 years until virtually all rangelands and
most of the forest lands that produced forage in the
48 States were being grazed at the beginning of the
twentieth century.

Range condition defined. — Range condition is an
estimate of the degree to which the present vegetation
and ground cover depart from that which is presumed
to be the natural potential (or climax) for the site.
The natural or ecological potential of a site is consid-
ered to be the amount and kinds of vegetation that
would exist on the site under the existing climate,
physiography, and soils if the effects of man and his
agents were removed and natural catastrophes had
not occurred. The less the departure in terms of plant
species composition, production, and ground cover,
the better the condition; the greater the departure in
composition or ground cover and the less the produc-
tion relative to the potential for the site, the lower the
range condition. The rating is ecological and provides
an effective way to evaluate changes as the result of
past or present use.

Some rangelands have been seeded to improved
forage grasses and legumes, but are managed as if the
vegetation were native and agricultural practices such

9 Barnes, Will C., The story of the range. U.S. Department of
Agriculture, 60 p. 1926.

'0 Hamer, Ralph. A true discourse of the present estate of Vir-
ginia. Reprinted from the London edition, 1615 with an intro-
duction by A. L. Rowse, Virginia State Library, 1957. Publ. No. 3.
1615.

'l Barnes, 1926, op. cit.

158

as cultivation, fertilization, irrigation, etc., are not
routinely employed. Condition of such ranges is
based upon comparing present production and
ground cover with that expected for the site. The
more closely present production and cover are to
potential for the site, the better the condition.

Classification — For this Assessment, rangelands
were rated into four condition classes — good, fair,
poor, and very poor — depending upon the degree of
departure of the present vegetation from the ecologi-
cal potential of the site.!2 Good condition rangelands
are those on which the present vegetation and soils
are between 61 to 100 percent of the potential for the
site. Fair condition rangelands are 41 to 60 percent of
potential; poor, 21 to 40 percent; and very poor 20
percent or less.

Geographic variation in condition. — More than
one-half of the rangelands in the 50 States are judged
to be in fair to good condition (table 5.1). However, if
the 48 contiguous States are considered separately,
only 46 percent of the rangelands are in fair or good
condition.

There is a consistent gradient in condition of range-
lands in the western States with conditions being
judged lowest in the southernmost States and highest
in the northernmost. Although no detailed studies
have been made, it is reasonable to associate the
lower rangeland conditions of the southwestern
States with their arid climate, prolonged grazing sea-
sons, and the long history, 400 years, of sustained
grazing by livestock. Less than 40 percent of the
rangelands in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and
Texas are in good or fair condition. In the northern
States of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and
North and South Dakota, more than 50 percent of
the rangelands are fair or better. The rest of the west-
ern States have from 40 to 50 percent of their range-
lands in fair or good condition.

12 The philosophical base for judging condition, 1.e., rating the
present community against the ecological potential, is quite uni-
form among Forest Service, Soil Conservation Service, and the
Bureau of Land Management. There is, however, some variation
among these agencies with respect to the number of condition
classes and class limits used. For many years, the Forest Service
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fair, poor, and very poor — using 20 percent class limits. The Soil
Conservation Service and the Bureau of Land Management have
used four condition classes —excellent, good, fair, and poor —
with 25 percent class limits. In order to use existing Forest Service
data in this Assessment, the five condition classes were reduced to
four by combining the excellent and good classes into the good
class. The resulting four classes are considered to be essentially
equivalent to the four classes used by the Soil Conservation Service
and the Bureau of Land Management.

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Less than half of the rangeland in the contiguous States is in fair or good condition.

Nevada is a major anomaly to this latitudinal gra-
dient in range condition with 60 percent of the range-
lands being judged in fair or better condition. This
relatively high rating of Nevada rangelands is surpris-
ing in view of recent concerns expressed about poor
range conditions in that State.

Conditions of rangelands in Hawaii and Alaska are
generally better than in most of the contiguous
States. Slightly more than one-half of Hawaii’s
968,000 acres of rangelands are in fair or good condi-
tion. Almost all (98 percent) of the rangeland in
Alaska is estimated to be in fair or good condition.
The high condition of Alaska’s rangeland most prob-
ably reflects continuation of the cyclic pattern of wild
ruminant grazing under which Alaska’s rangelands
evolved. Estimates made locally indicate that of the
lands in the Aleutian Islands that are being grazed by
cattle, 65-70 percent are in good condition and 25-30
percent are in fair.

Condition by ecosystem. —In general, the grass-
lands are in slightly better condition than the shrub-
lands (fig. 5.4), but the differences are not significant.
The high-producing, high elevation rangelands —
mountain grasslands and mountain meadows — are
in much better condition than are the low-producing

160

arid and semiarid rangelands (table 5.2). This may be
due to the history and short duration of grazing,
ownership patterns, levels of management practices,
and, most certainly, the relatively favorable moisture
conditions prevailing in these high elevation eco-
systems. The favorable growing conditions of the
mountain grasslands and meadows enable them to
recover fairly rapidly from the effects of past misuse
once better management is implemented.

The Great Plains ecosystems, Texas savanna,
plains grasslands, and prairie, are in generally higher
condition than the arid and semiarid ecosystems of
the Southwest. The generally better growing condi-
tions in these ecosystems have contributed to their
present relatively high condition ratings.

Most of the arid and semiarid ecosystems of the
Southwest are in generally poorer condition than the
other rangeland ecosystems, reflecting their long his-
tory of unmanaged grazing and the tough growing
conditions. The high condition of the desert shrub
ecosystem, 54 percent being in fair and good condi-
tion, may therefore be surprising. However, many
areas in this ecosystem are grazed only in the winter,
while other areas in the ecosystem are ungrazed
because of lack of drinking water for livestock.

Figure 5.4

Condition of Shrublands and Grasslands in the Contiguous States, 1976

Mil. Acres

Very Poor
106

All Rangeland
(650)

Shrublands
(358)

Grasslands
(292)

Effect of condition on forage supply. — Each eco-
system has its inherent natural potential productivity
or ability to produce herbage and browse. The natu-
ral potential production is the average annual pro-
duction that could be expected from an ecosystem
without irrigation or fertilization if that ecosystem
were in good condition. Thus the two largest range-
land ecosystems, plains grasslands and sagebrush,
containing 175 and 130 million acres respectively,
each have a potential to produce an average of a little
over one-half ton per acre annually. Wet grasslands
have the highest potential, over 5,100 pounds; and the
desert shrub the lowest, about 250 pounds (table 2.6).
Natural potential of deserts for forage is virtually nil.

Since rangeland in fair, poor, or very poor condi-
tion produces less than its natural potential, any
improvement in range condition can usually be
expected to increase the supply of forage produced.
Conversely, any downward departure from good
condition will usually have a negative effect upon the
supply. Thus, the actual production of rangelands is a
function of present condition and the inherent pro-
duction of the ecosystem.

Figure 5.5 shows the present production of the
rangelands in the contiguous States. The rangelands
having the highest production of herbage and browse
are the grasslands in the Central Plains and in the
coastal and near coastal Southern and Pacific South-
west areas. The sagebrush lands of the Intermountain
and Pacific Northwest also are significant contribu-
tors of herbage and browse. Although areas to the
east of the Great Plains have the water and soil
requirements for high forage growth, plant succession

has resulted in their being covered with forests rather
than with rangeland plant communities. In the
Pacific Northwest, the heavily timbered zones are
similarly high in timber growth but low in forage
output, while the arid lands of the Southwest repre-
sent the least productive areas for forage under his-
torical management for reasons noted previously.
Should range conditions of higher herbage and
browse producing areas be improved, significant in-
creases in forage production can be expected.

Grazing Use Of Range

Use by livestock. — Livestock grazing is the major
use of the range. In 1976, almost two-thirds of the
1,207 million acres of forests and rangelands, or 789
million acres, were grazed in the contiguous States.
Most of the grazed range is in the 17 traditional range
States west of the Mississippi River. Here the forests
and rangelands are characterized by large acreages of
palatable and nutritious forage plants and have been
grazed by livestock ever since settlement by the early
pioneers and before that by large wild herbivores.
These States have about 70 percent of the forests and
rangelands in the 48 States, but they provide some
720 million acres of range grazing, or 91 percent of
the range grazed in the 48 States (table 5.3).

The 31 States east of the Mississippi River supply
some 69 million acres of grazed range, only 9 percent
of the total grazed in the contiguous States. The
range grazing in the East reported here relates mostly
to livestock grazing in forest lands under varying lev-
els of management. Most livestock grazing in the East

161

Table 5.2 — Condition of rangeland ecosystems in the United States, 1976'
(Thousand acres)

Contiguous States:
Grasslands
Mountain grasslands 4,049
Mountain meadows 253
Plains grasslands 20,178
Prairie 5,654
Desert grasslands 4,066
Wet grasslands 1,533
Annual grasslands 4,576
Alpine 95
Shrublands:
Sagebrush 129,872 21,495
Desert shrub 81,171 11,913
Shinnery 4,726 723
Texas savanna 28,429 4,037
Southwestern shrubsteppe 43,213 14,358
Chapparal-mountain shrub? 15,477 4,063
Pinyon-juniper? 47,305 8,498
Desert 7,490 400
Alaska:?
Muskeg-bog 14,383 0
Shrub thickets 17,762 0)
Moist tundra 66,576 0
Wet tundra 26,256 0
Alpine tundra 103,114 0
Aleutian moist tundra 1,215 0
Aleutian alpine 2,165 0
Hawaii:
Forest-shrub-grass mosaic 493 72 72 95 254
Koa-mamani-parkland 250 a ire 58 73 2

Grass-shrub-barren mosaic 225

30

Total, United States

‘For definition of condition.class, see text.
?Considered as other forest in the Forest and Range Land chapter.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

is now, and has been for many decades, confined pri-
marily to lands cleared of forests and then seeded to
domesticated grasses and forbs. These cleared lands
are considered as improved pastures and are not
included in the Nation’s range base.

Only a small portion of Alaska is currently grazed
by livestock. There are cattle and sheep on some of
the Aleutian Islands; cattle on Kodiak Island; rein-
deer on Umnak, Atka, and Nunivak Island, and on
the Seward Peninsula; and musk ox on Nunivak
Island. In the past, cattle grazed small isolated areas

162

882,784 219;975 247,545 249,109

154 36

1

106,152

in the mountains and the reindeer herds roamed over
most of the North Slope and western tundra areas.
Their numbers and area grazed have declined steadily
in recent decades.

While livestock grazing occurs on some large
ranches using range in Hawaii, there is little range
grazing in the remaining Pacific Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Virgin Islands. Grazing in these islands is
important locally, but it represents a very tiny frac-
tion of the Nation’s grazing use.

Figure 5.5

Herbage and Browse Production in the Contiguous United States, Under Prevailing
Vegetation Cover and Range Condition, 1976

Pounds Per Acre

GER Greater Than 2000
HB 800 - 2000

GB 400 - 800

[J 0 - 400

Livestock grazing (nearly all beef cattle) is the major use of range.

Most of the range grazing occurs on non-Federal
lands. In 1976, 531 million acres of non-Federal range
were grazed — two-thirds of all the range grazed by
livestock (table 5.4). The predominance of non-
Federal grazed lands is especially evident in the east-
ern sections where more than 99 percent of the area
grazed in the North and 91 percent in the South are in
non-Federal ownership. More importantly, non-
Federal landowners own 98 percent of the range
grazed in the six Great Plains States. This accounts
for 25 percent of all the range grazed in the con-
tiguous States.

Some 258 million acres of Federally owned range
were grazed in 1976. Almost 98 percent of the grazed
Federal lands are in the 17 western States and only
2 percent, or 4.7 million acres, are in the 31 States
east of the Mississippi River. Only in the Pacific
Northwest section do Federal lands supply more than
half of the grazed range. About 57 percent of the
grazed lands in Federal ownership are administered

163

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by the Bureau of Land Management, 39 percent by
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Use by wild horses and burros. — Wild horses and
burros in the western United States date back to the
16th century when some of the mounts and pack
animals of the Spanish conquistadors escaped captiv-
ity and survived and prospered in the wild. By the
1930’s, populations of these feral animals had grown
until they were considered as serious problems on
many western ranges. In the late 1940’s and early
1950’s, Federal agencies encouraged the removal of
feral horses and burros because they competed for
forage needed by other grazing animals and were
causing serious resource damage, especially in their
winter ranges.

As a result of public concern over the control pro-
grams being carried on, Congress passed the Wild
Horses and Burros Protection Act of 1971.!3 The Act
delegated to the Secretary of the Interior and the
Secretary of Agriculture the authority and responsi-
bility for the protection, management, and control of
wild free-roaming horses and burros on public lands
administered by the Bureau of Land Management and
the Forest Service. The Act does not apply to horses
and burros roaming yearlong on private lands or on
lands administered by other Federal or State agencies.

Prior to passage of this Act, direct management
and welfare of wild animals on Federal lands, except
those included in international treaties, had been gen-
erally considered as the responsibility of the States,
while the Federal agencies were responsible for man-
aging the habitat. Now the Bureau of Land Manage-
ment and the Forest Service have direct responsibili-
ties for the wild horses and burros on lands they
administer.

Most of the wild horses and burros are on Federal
lands administered by the Bureau of Land Manage-
ment. Only a small proportion of their population is
on land administered by the Forest Service. This is
believed to be due to the generally rougher terrain
and more severe winters of National Forest System
land.!4

Wild horse populations on lands administered by
the Bureau of Land Management and Forest Service
have increased dramatically since passage of the Act,
while burro populations are believed to be stable or
perhaps declining (table 5.5). The 1971 estimates for

'392nd U.S. Congress. Wild Horses and Burros Protection Act.
Public law 92-195. 1971.

'fU.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Second
report to Congress: Administration of the Wild Free-Roaming
Horse and Burro Act (sic). 1976. Washington, D.C. 45 p., with
appendix. 1976.

166

both kinds of animals are rather crude and consid-
ered as unreliable, especially for wild horses. The
1974 burro estimate is also considered unreliable
because of highly inflated estimates made in Arizona
prior to an aerial census.

Table 5.5 — Estimates of wild horses and burros
in 10 western States in 1971, 1974, and 1976

Animal

Horses
Burros

17,300
8,045

45,207
14,6462

56,335
7,101

Total 25,345 59,853 63,436

‘1971 estimates are for Federal lands administered by Bureau of Land Manage-
ment only. Other years include lands administered by Forest Service as well as the
Bureau of Land Management.

? Estimate made prior to aerial census in 1975 and not considered reliable.

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Second report to Congress: Administra-
tion of the Wild Free-Roaming Horse and Burro Act (sic) 1976. Washington, D.C.
45 p., with appendix. 1976.

U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture, Forest Service. 1978 report to Congress: Management of wild
free-roaming horses and burros on the Public Lands and lands of the National
Forest System. (\n draft)

Passage of the Wild Horses and Burros Protection Act of 1971 has
resulted in dramatic increases in wild horse populations on Federal
lands. Concerns are mounting about the impacts of the horses on
vegetation and soil resources and other grazing animals.

The increasing horse numbers, 25 percent increase
in the 1974-1976 period, are resulting in heavy range
use in some places. Concerns are mounting about the
impacts of these animals upon vegetation and soils
resources and their competition with other grazing
animals, both domestic and wild. The Public Range-
lands Improvement Act of 1978!5 may offer some
relief because it provides improved measures for the
two agencies to dispose of surplus animals, i.e., ani-
mals in excess of the sustained grazing capacity of the
range.

Use by wildlife. — In addition to providing forage
for livestock and wild horses and burros, the Nation’s
range, as stated previously, also furnishes food and
cover for millions of wild animals. No reliable
national population data are available for most wild-
life species, or even such common big game animals
as deer and elk. However, Wagner!® has summarized
recent population estimates by the fish and game de-
partments of the western States (table 5.6).

These estimates, even though incomplete, indicate
big game populations in excess of 4 million animals
for the 11 western States. Present numbers, except for
deer, are far lower than for the populations believed
to have been in the area when Columbus landed in
the New World. Wagner speculates that the pre-
Columbus populations were: bison, 5-10 million;
pronghorn 10-15 million; bighorn sheep, 1-2 million;
mule deer and blacktail deer; 5 million; and elk,
2 million.

An estimated 11 million animal unit months
(AUM’s) of forage are required to sustain Wagner’s
present populations.!'? Data developed for this report
indicate that as much as 154 million AUM’s of her-
bage and browse are currently available for wild rumi-
nants (e.g. deer, elk, moose, etc.) in the 11 western
States. This is far more than that required to meet the
forage requirements of the populations listed by
Wagner.

Wildlife use of the Nation’s forests and rangelands
is discussed in further detail in the wildlife chapter of
this report.

Nongrazing Uses

While the common product from range is forage

'S95th U.S. Congress. Public Rangelands Improvement Act.
Public Law 95-514. 1978.

16 Wagner, Frederic H. Livestock grazing and the livestock
industry. Chapter 9, p. 121-149, in Wildlife and America: Contri-
butions to an understanding of American wildlife and its conser-
vation, H. P. Brokaw, editor, Council on Environmental Quality.
1978.

"An animal unit month (AUM) is the amount of forage
required by a 1,000-pound cow or its equivalent in 1 month.

for livestock, big game, and other herbivores, the
range does yield many other products. Rangelands
are important sources of coal, oil, uranium, and other
economically significant minerals. They provide sites
for many forms of outdoor recreation such as hunt-
ing, hiking, off-road vehicle use, birdwatching, flower
viewing, and rock hounding to name a few. They also
serve other purposes described below.

Commercial plants. —Some old and well-estab-
lished range uses are assuming far greater importance
now than they did in the past. For example, the har-
vesting of pinyon nuts was once largely the activity of
some Indian tribes of the Southwest. Now it is also a
popular recreational activity for many people. Juni-
per has traditionally provided fenceposts and, along
with pinyon, firewood for ranchers. Now with esca-
lating costs of fuel oil and natural gas, urban dwellers
are also demanding juniper and pinyon for use as
fuel. The demands are so great in some areas that
supplies must be closely managed.

In 1910, about half of all United States rubber
came from guayule, a range shrub of arid lands in
Texas and Mexico. The wild guayule stands were
soon depleted and the hevea rubber tree of the East
Indies became the source of natural rubber. But in
World War II, when the United States lost more than
90 percent of its rubber supplies, attention focused
once again upon guayule as a source of rubber. Three
million pounds of rubber for the war effort were pro-
duced from the shrub. After the war, the Nation re-
turned to the hevea rubber tree and to petroleum as
its sources of rubber.'8 Recent research, however,
shows that rubber production in young guayule
plants can be increased from two to six times by
spraying with mixtures of chemicals called bioregula-
tors. Should these developments prove to be com-
mercially feasible, some 5 million acres of arid range-
land in New Mexico, Arizona, California, and Texas
may be involved in the production of guayule
rubber.!9

Other research has led to pilot-scale production of
petroleum from range plants of the genus Euphor-
bia.2°” As much as 25 million acres of dry rangelands
could be managed as “hydrocarbon plantations,” if
the pilot tests prove to be economically successful.?!

'8 National Academy of Science. Guayule: an alternative source
of natural rubber. 80 p. 1977.

'9 Dean, J. Paul. New method increases rubber from guayule.
Agr. Res. 27(2): 810, illus. 1978.

20 Calvin, M. Energy and materials via photosynthesis. P. 231-
259 in R. Buvet and M. J. Allen, eds. Living systems as energy
converters. North Holland Publishing Co., New York. 1977.

2! Pimental, David, Donald Nafus, Walter Vergara, Dan Papaj,
Linda Jaconetta, Marty Wulfe, Linda Olsvig, Kerry French, Mark
Loye, and Ellen Medoza. Biological solar energy conversion and
U.S. energy policy. Bioscience 28(6): 376-382. 1978.

167

Table 5.6 — Current estimates of big game populations in the western States

Mule and
blacktail
deer

130,000

State Bison Pronghorn Bighorn

Arizona 10,000

California 650,000 3,392 662,011
Colorado 325,000 120,000 479,500
idaho 178,000 50,600 244,850
Montana No est. No est. —
Nevada 81,700 200 90,900
New Mexico 261,600 27,500 316,800
Oregon 1,050,000 107,000 1,168,400
Utah 275,000 13,000 291,100
Washington 373,500 60,000

Wyoming

4,350,966

Percentage of
Pre-Columbus

population 25
Source: State fish and game departments as reported by Wagner, Frederic H. “Trace
Livestock grazing and the livestock industry. Chapter 9, p. 121-149. In Wildlife ** Approx.

and America: Contributions to an understanding of American wildlife and its
conservation. H. P. Brokaw, editor, Council on Environmental Quality, 1978.

Some range types, such as the pinyon-juniper forests, provide products such as fence posts, firewood and nuts, in addition to forage.

Another shrub of the Southwest, jojoba, is used as a
commercial source of wax. More recently, research
has shown that jojoba wax can substitute for whale
oil, a finding of great importance since many whales
are classified as endangered and are protected under
terms of the Endangered Species Act of 1973.?2
Numerous range plants contain medicinal properties;
one, false hellebore, contains an alkaloid used as a
heart and arterial sedative.

These recent developments could lead to conflict-
ing demands for rangeland areas in the future. Sound
planning must ensure that these uses will be compati-
ble with the many other uses of rangelands.

Endangered and threatened plants. — The Endan-
gered Species Act of 1973 is the strongest legislation
yet enacted by Congress to protect endangered and
threatened animals and plants. As required by the
Act, the Smithsonian Institution reviewed the status
of plant species in the United States and reported to
the Secretary of the Interior that 3,187 species, sub-
species, and varieties needed protection.?3 The Secre-
tary reduced the list of plants and in June 1976 pro-
posed that 1,783 plants be classified. By July 1, 1979,
only 19 of 1,783 proposed plants had been officially
classified by the Secretary as threatened or endan-
gered and are under protection of Federal law (table
Se):

Under the Endangered Species Act, Federal agen-
cies must ensure that actions they authorize, fund, or
carry out will not jeopardize the existence of those
species. Potentially, this may pose problems regard-
ing management of some rangelands. At this time,
however, conflicts between well-managed grazing and
endangered or threatened plants are considered to be
minor. None of the classified species has been so
categorized because of livestock grazing. However,
should any classified plants be jeopardized by graz-
ing, adequate steps must be taken to protect them.

Management of the Range

Management of the range varies greatly in the
United States. Climate, weather, topography, pro-
ductivity of the ecosystem, markets, goals, and finan-
cial positions of the operator — even tradition — all
bear importantly on the choice of operation and level
of management practiced. The complex interrelation-
ships and interactions among these factors provide an
almost infinite number of management situations.

2293rd U.S. Congress. The Endangered Species Act of 1973.
Public Law 93-204. 1973.

3 Smithsonian Institution. Report on endangered and threat-
ened species of the United States. 200 p. 1974.

Management levels defined. — To facilitate discus-
sions, the vast array of management situations has
been classified into five broad management levels:

Land management without livestock (no livestock).
Livestock grazing is eliminated (except for use by
recreational pack and saddle stock), but the range is
protected from such natural catastrophes as wildfire
and insect epidemics. Any previous damage to the
resource is corrected to maintain a stewardship level
of management. Examples of areas managed at this
level are most national and State parks, many wildlife
refuges and wildernesses, and many research natural
areas.

Land management with some livestock (some live-
stock). Goal is to control livestock numbers within
present capacity of the range, but little or no attempt
is made to achieve uniform distribution of livestock.
Range management investments are minimal and
only to the extent needed to maintain stewardship of
the range in the presence of grazing. Past resource
damage is corrected and resources are protected from
natural catastrophes.

Extensive management of the range and livestock
(extensive management). Goal is to maintain full
plant vigor and to achieve full livestock utilization of
available forage. Goal is achieved through imple-
mentation of improved grazing systems and construc-
tion and installation of range improvements. Cultural
practices, such as seeding and fertilizing to improve
forage quality and quantity, are not used.

Intensive management of range and _ livestock
(intensive management). Goal is to maximize produc-
tion and utilization of livestock forage consistent with
maintaining the range and its environment and to
provide for the multiple use of the range. All avail-
able technology and practices are considered and
used as they may be cost-efficient to improve live-
stock production, quality, and utilization.

Land management with livestock production maxi-
mized (maximize livestock). Goal is to maximize
production of livestock while maintaining the soil
and water resources. Existing vegetation may be
replaced with better forage species. This level requires
large investments for construction and implementa-
tion of improvements, cultural practices, and animal
husbandry, but all practices used must be cost-
efficient. Multiple use of the resources is not a con-
straint. This management level generally does not
meet the legal management requirements for most
Federal lands.

Maintenance of the soils and water resources is
required in all five management levels, but multiple-
use requirements apply only in some livestock, inten-
sive management, and extensive management levels.

169

Table 5.7 — Plants classified as endangered or threatened in the United States by date, classification,
State and land ownership, as of July 1, 1979

Technical name
Classified Aug. 11, 1977:

Castilleja grisea

Delphinum kinkiense

Lotus scoparius

Melicothamnus
clementinus

Classified April 4, 1978:

Aconitum
novoboracense

Astragalus perianus
Baptisia arachnifera

Betula uber
Dudleya traskiae
Erysimum capitatum

var. angustatum

Oenothera avita
ssp. eurekensis

Oenothera deltoides
ssp. howellii

Pedicularis furbishiae

Swallenia alexandrae

Trillium persistens
Vicia menziesii
Zizania texana

Classified April 24, 1979

Rhododendron chapmannii

Classified June 6, 1979:

Echinaceae tennesseensis

San Clemente Island
Indian paintbrush

San Clemente Island
larkspur

San Clemente broom

San Clemente Island
bush mallow

Northern wild
monkshood

Rydberg milkvetch
Hairy rattleweed

Virginia roundleaf
birch

Santa Barbara Island
liveforever

Contra Costa wallflower
Eureka evening
primrose

Antioch Dunes evening
primrose

Furbish lousewort

Eureka dune grass

Persistent trillium
Hawaiian wild broadbean

Texas wild-rice

Chapman rhododendron

Tennessee purple
coneflower

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of

Endangered Species.

170

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Threatened
Threatened

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

Endangered

California

California

California

California

lowa, New York,
Ohio, Wisconsin

Utah

Georgia

Virginia

California

California

California

California

Maine

California

Georgia,
South Carolina

Hawaii

Texas

Florida

Tennessee

Land Ownership

Other Federal

Other Federal

Other Federal

Other Federal

Non-Federal
Forest Service
Non-Federal

Forest Service
Non-Federal

Other Federal

Non-Federal

Bureau of
Land Mgmt.

Non-Federal
Non-Federal

Bureau of

Land Mgmt.

Forest Service
Non-Federal

Non-Federal

Non-Federal

Non-Federal

Other Federal

Non-Federal

In addition to these five management levels,
another situation — exploitative grazing, i.e., grazing
with no concern for multiple use or the maintenance
of basic soil and water resources — is, unfortunately,
much too common. Though such grazing is practiced,
it is not desirable management because the sacrifice
of soil and water resources to obtain short-term mone-
tary gains is too detrimental to the Nation’s welfare in
the long run. In addition to being used as a general
level of management, this kind of grazing also occurs
in local spots or areas on ranges that overall are being
managed under any of the other five management
levels.

Production by management level.—To be truly
cost-efficient, higher management levels should be em-
ployed where productive potentials are the greatest,
and lower levels of management should be used on
ecosystems with lower potentials. At present, this is
only partly the case. For example, only about 40 per-
cent of the production from perennial grassland eco-
systems comes from lands managed in the two highest
management categories — intensive management and
maximization of livestock (table 5.8). In the annual
grasslands, a somewhat different situation exists in
that 52 percent of the grazing production comes from
extensive management —a relatively low manage-
ment level. Shrublands are managed less intensively
than the grasslands, with 36 percent of the output
coming from the two highest management levels.
Unfortunately, exploitative grazing occurs at far too
great an extent regardless of the productive potential
of the ecosystems.

Large differences in the quality and quantity of
forage occur among the ecosystem groups. Grazing
potential varies accordingly. In 1976, the forest and
rangeland ecosystems produced 212 million animal
unit months (AUM’s) of grazing (table 5.8). The
grassland ecosystems accounted for 64 percent of the
total AUM’s produced. Shrublands contributed 25
percent, and despite their large area, the eastern
forests made up only 8 percent, and the western
forests-only 2 percent of the total. Although the west-
ern forests provide only a small proportion of the
total grazing, they are producing over 5 million
AUM’s and their importance as a resource should not
be discounted.

About three-fourths of all the AUM’s come from
five range ecosystems and each of them produced
more than 10 million AUM’s of grazing in 1976. The
plains grassland, with 54.3 million AUM’s, produced
the most, followed by the prairie (45.4 million), sage-
brush (24.6 million), mountain grassland (16.6 mil-
lion), and Texas savanna (16.5 million). All of these
are relatively high producing ecosystems (table 2.6)

and all have substantial areas that could be improved
in condition (table 5.2); therefore, all could be
expected to produce substantially more AUM’s of
grazing if management levels were intensified and
range conditions improved, and if economic and
ownership circumstances permitted it.

Stewardship management. — Description of man-
agement strategies would be seriously incomplete
without mention of the range stewardship concept.
Stewardship is simply exercising sufficient care of the
land so that it is passed on to succeeding generations
in as good or better condition as it was received. Thus
stewardship assures future availability of a produc-
tive range resource. Future generations will then have
options as to the uses to be made of the range,
whether it be used for grazing, wildlife habitat, water,
air, Open space, or recreation. The stewardship con-
cept is essential to ensure progress in restoring and
maintaining the productivity of rangelands. While
meat production is a primary factor in the demand
for range, as will later be discussed, stewardship of
soil and vegetation resources is a matter of vital pub-
lic interest, and is an important element in discussions
about supplying future demands for meat.

One index of the effectiveness of land stewardship
is the rate of soil loss from the Nation’s lands. Pimen-
tel, et al?4 estimated that the United States has lost
one-third of its original topsoil in only 200 years, and
that the rate of loss on agricultural lands is increasing
rather than decreasing. More recent estimates? indi-
cate that about 77 percent of the agricultural lands in
now Federal ownership have soil losses due to sheet
and rill erosion of less than 5 tons per acre per year, a
loss generally considered as acceptable on average
croplands. These estimates also indicate that over 80
percent of the non-Federal rangelands and forests
have soil losses averaging less than 2 tons per acre per
year. No comparable estimates are available for Fed-
eral forests and rangelands, but preliminary data col-
lected for this assessment suggest that the bulk of the
Federal forests and rangelands have erosion rates
that are no higher than those for non-Federal lands.

Factors Affecting Demand
for Range Grazing

The demand for range grazing is derived from con-
sumers’ demands for livestock products. These live-
stock products are meat, hides, wool, tallow, insulin,

24 Pimentel, D.; E. Terhune; R. Dyson-Hudson; S. Rochereau;
R. Samis; E. Smith; D. Denman; D. Reifschneider; and M. Shep-
ard. Land degradation: Effect on food and energy resources.
Science 194: 149. 1976.

25U.S. Department of Agriculture. Soil and Water Resources
Conservation Act: Appraisal 1980, review draft, part 1. 1979.

171

Table 5.8 — Production of range grazing in the 48 contiguous States ecosystem group, by ecosystem,
and management level, 1976
(Thousand animal unit months)

Management level

Extensive Intensive Livestock
management | management maximized

Ecosystem group
and ecosystem

Some
livestock

Exploitative
grazing

Grasslands
Mountain grasslands 16,597 GL CAC
Mountain meadows 822 (0)
Plains grasslands 54,325 7,331 9,178
Prairie 45,350 15,558 6,241
Desert grasslands 2,998 113 2,258
Annual grasslands 10,649 139 5,402 5,030 0 78
Wet grasslands 5,425 225 734 1,168 1,645 1,652
Alpine 216 193 23 0 0 0
Total, Grasslands 136,382 5,982 53,268 26,921 29,626 20,584
Shrublands
Sagebrush 24,641 2,446 8,571 2,610 2,950 8,064
Desert shrub 2,809 369 1,645 0 0 795
Southwestern shrubsteppe 3,775 18 184 2,793 0 781
Shinnery 1,848 117 536 643 511 42
Texas savanna 16,493 434 1,337 6,830 1,094 6,799
Chaparral-mountain
shrub 1,612 337 73 430 743 29
Pinyon-juniper 2,393 994 439 647 137 176
Desert 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total, Shrublands 53,571 4,715 12,785 13,953 5,435 16,686
Western Forests
Douglas-fir 1,000 827 113 53 0 6
Ponderosa pine 1,617 431 508 102 291 285
Western white pine 50 8 5 . 37 0
Fir-spruce 418 190 224 2 0 2
Hemlock-Sitka spruce 173 21 18 * 134 0
Larch 178 39 26 3 109 1
Lodgepole pine 527 352 175 0 0 id
Redwood 28 16 12 0 0 0
Hardwood 1,222 178 431 487 116 10
Total, Western Forests 5,213 2,062 L502 647 687 304
Eastern Forests
White-red-jack pine 32 8 22 1 0 1
Spruce-fir 15 : 2 : 12 0
Longleaf-slash pine 3,152 2,010 1,064 : 0) 0 78
Loblolly-shortleaf pine 203 74 16 15 0 it
Oak-pine 1,567 1,039 466 16 0 46
Oak-hickory 7,946 1,547 2,526 2,197 408 1,269
Oak-gum-cypress 1,989 3 21 1,964 1
Elm-oak-cottonwood 748 107 480 0 160
Maple-beech-birch 961 0 13
Aspen-birch 206 i 3
Total, Eastern Forests 2,384 1574
Total, Contiguous States 211,986

‘Less than 1,000 AUM's

172

Grasslands provide nearly two-thirds of the animal unit months of
grazing on forest and range lands.

and a long list of other byproducts. The demand for
grazing for dairy cattle has influenced the demand for
range grazing in the past, but dairy will not be a
significant claimant of range use in the future. Range
grazing by sheep to meet the demand for lamb, mut-
ton, and wool will have some minor influence on
future demand for range grazing, but historical data
show the decline in the volume of these products in
the United States. Each of these livestock products is
important, but the magnitude of individual and col-
lective demands for other products is very low as com-
pared to the demand for meat.

Thus, the main factors affecting demand for range
grazing are: (1) The demand for meat, (2) the change
in relative prices of feed elements, and (3) the change
in technology — possible feed substitutions or feed
mixtures for producing a given number of livestock
efficiently.

Production of beef in the United States typically
involves rearing the young animals on pasture and
range and finishing them by feeding large amounts of
grain. The feed for maintenance of cow herd and calf
production depends primarily on grazed and har-
vested roughages. Grazing (range and non-range)
now supplies about 64 percent of the feed consumed
by all beef cattle and 79 percent of the feed consumed
by sheep in the United States. Therefore, grazing is
critical to the continuation of the current system of
beef and lamb production.

Range grazing is an important part of the economy
for many localities and regions, particularly in the
West. Maintenance and enhancement of pasture and
range have the potential to stabilize or strengthen
local rural economies and to improve the economic
welfare of rural families.

Demand for Meat

Foremost among the factors influencing future
demands for range grazing are the demand for beef
and veal per capita and the size of the U.S. popula-
tion. While demand for many other types of meat or
dairy products, i.e., lamb, pork, poultry, milk, etc.,
also affects the demand for range grazing, the
demand for beef by far overshadows the demand for
other types of meat. Even though all types of meat are
mentioned throughout the analysis, the primary
emphasis is on consumption and production of beef.

Per capita meat consumption is a function of many
variables, such as disposable income, availability of
meat substitutes, consumer preference for different
types of meat, and meat grading systems. Changes in
any factor will change per capita meat consumption
and the demand for range grazing.

Per capita disposable income.— As disposable
income increases, a smaller percentage of the income
is needed for basic necessities and more of the income
is available for increased purchases of meat.

Consumer demand for red meat is the principal factor influencing
the demand for range grazing.

173

Substitutes for meat. — Historically, rising per
capita incomes have led to increased per capita con-
sumption of beef and fresh fruits and decreased con-
sumption of foods such as milk, eggs, potatoes, and
grain products.”° This in turn has led to an increase in
demand for grazing and harvested roughages.

The only major permanent penetration of the
animal protein market by plant protein in the United
States has been by soybean products. Soybeans have
been used both as meat extenders in processed meats
and as meat substitutes. Per capita consumption of
soybean products is not expected to increase unless it
is assumed that preferences of consumers change.
Evidence supporting such a change in preference is
not available. Therefore, soybean-derived meat sub-
stitutes are expected to have only a negligible effect
on the demand for meat. Furthermore, when energy
requirements for production of soybean meat analogs
are compared to those for beef production, and when
other land uses and animal byproducts are consid-
ered, beef may be more favorable than formerly
thought.?’

Meat grading and consumer preferences. — Prior
to 1975, standards for grading beef as “choice” or
“prime” favored grain in cattle rations over grazing
and other roughages because extensive feeding of
grain was necessary for beef to grade “choice” or bet-
ter and thus command top market prices. In 1975,
meat grading standards were changed so that a
smaller portion of grain was needed in cattle rations
for beef to be graded “USDA choice.”?8 Further
changes in grading standards favoring a decreased
use of grains and an increased use of roughages are
still possible. Current efforts of some other consumer
groups are also directed toward decreasing the pro-
portion of grain in the ration, thereby decreasing the
amount of fat in beef. However, since consumers
have developed a preference for marbled beef pro-
duced by using grains as a large part of the total feed
ration, the amount and duration of change in con-
sumer preferences are uncertain at this time. Changes
in the production process which decrease the quantity
of grain fed per animal will increase the amount of
roughages needed to produce a given quantity of beef
and eventually will cause increases in the demand for
grazing.

26U.S. Department of Agriculture, Interagency Work Group,
op. cit.

27 Yorks, Terence P. Energy use in soybean analog manufacture:
a comparison with beef. J. Sci. Food and Agric. (29)895-902. 1978.

28 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Interagency Work Group, op
cit.

174

Relative Prices of Feed Elements

Just as many potential combinations of meat,
cereals, and vegetables provide a satisfactory diet for
people, there are many combinations of feeds which
can be used to produce a given livestock product.
Range grazing is one of the several feed elements in
the production of livestock. The demand for range
grazing is greatly influenced by the relative prices and
costs of production of other feed sources, including
nonrange grazing.

Feed represents a major portion of total livestock-
production costs. Because livestock can be raised
effectively on grain or forage or combinations of the
two, anything which substantially affects the prices of
either will have an impact on the livestock production
process. If feed grain prices are relatively low, grain
feeding will replace forage in the livestock production
process.?? For example, in the 1950’s, grain was rela-
tively inexpensive and it became profitable to feed
more grain to livestock, especially beef cattle. Pro-
ducers placed calves in the feedlot at an earlier age
and fed the animals relatively more grain and less
forage to reach marketable weight.

Conversely, high grain prices encourage producers
to finish animals for slaughter with less feeding of
grain. For example, in the early 1970's, high grain
prices caused livestock producers to rely more on
grazing and other forage.3° As a result of low prices
for slaughter and feeder cattle, producers reduced or
liquidated herds, and the beef market became satu-
rated, leading to depressed beef prices which raised
the price ratio of grain to beef. Because of the high
ratio, roughages increased from 80 percent of total
feed consumed by all beef cattle in 1971 to 88 percent
in 1974. During the same period, the percent of rough-
ages in the ration of cattle not in feedlots remained
stable at 96 percent. Fluctuating grain prices have
little effect on rations fed to sheep because pasture
and range grazing has always been their principal
source of nutrients.?!

World Agricultural Trade

World demands for food and fiber have the poten-
tial to influence the domestic prices of livestock prod-

29Council for Agricultural Science and Technology. Multiple

use of public lands in 17 western States. Dep. of Agronomy, Iowa
State University, Ames, Rep. 45, 36 p. 1975.

30 Ward, Gerald M. Structure of the United States beef industry
as it affects resource use. Unpublished manuscript developed as
part of National Science Foundation’s Research Applied to
National Needs (RANN) Project. “Resource requirements for
alternative beef production systems.” Washington, D.C. 1976.

31 Ward, 1976, op. cit.

ucts and, therefore, indirectly influence domestic
demands for those products and ultimately, range
grazing. Although some meat is exported, the United
States is a feed grain exporter rather than a meat
exporter.

Many nations have greater potential as producers
of meat supplies than as markets for United States
meat production. They could produce more livestock
through increasing their own forage and feed grain
production and through increased imports of feed
grains. Some nations are protecting their own red
meat producers by restricting imports of meat.

The food consumption in several nations has
shifted from cereal grains toward animal protein. The
result has been a growth in demand for livestock feed
grains and oilseeds, and acceleration of world trade in
these commodities. The impact of these changes upon
the United States livestock industry has been more
evident in the feed grain market than directly through
meat exports. The effect of increasing United States
grain exports may be of greater significance upon the
demand for forage than the exportation of meat.
However, in projecting the demand for range grazing,
agricultural trade is assumed to continue its historical
trend in world economic development and trade poli-
cies. This includes the policies of trade constraint by
countries promoting self-sufficiency. These world
trade attributes constitute a moderate growth in
demand and will not have a major impact on range
grazing in this country.32

Livestock-Grazed Roughage Relationships

Grazed roughage consumed by beef cattle in-
creased 19 percent from 1965-67 to 1974-76 (table
5.9). At the same time, producers of dairy cattle
reduced their use of grazed roughage by 55 percent,
as they moved to increased use of concentrates and a
reduced number of dairy cows. Despite an increase in
horse and mule populations, use of grazed roughage
decreased by 20 percent, or 5 million AUM’s, because
horse owners shifted to greater use of concentrates
and harvested roughage.

Declining sheep and goat populations and reduc-
tions in the use of grazed roughage by cattle in feed-
lots resulted in further reduction of 35 million and 4
million AUM’s respectively. Thus, the increase of 150
million AUM’s in demand for grazing for beef cattle
was almost offset by the 146 million AUM’s decline

32 Liu, Chun-lan, Gerald Plato, and Allen G. Smith. The demand
for grazing roughages in the United States: alternative futures to
the year 2030. Unpublished manuscript developed under coopera-
tive agreement between Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives
Service and Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 1978,
revised 1979.

for the other kinds of livestock. Total grazing use,
therefore, increased only by 4 million AUM’s during
that period.33

This small increase in grazing use is more apparent
than real and should not be used to estimate trends in
grazing use during the period 1965-1978. Average use
of only two peak periods, 1965-1967 and 1974-1976,
were compared to show the changes in grazing use by
different kinds of livestock and their effects upon
total grazing use. When the annual grazing use data
are used to estimate the linear trend, a downward
trend of total grazing use becomes apparent for the
1965-1978 period (fig. 5.6).

This downward trend occurred during a period
when significant increases occurred in beef produc-
tion. From 1965 to 1978, beef cattle production was
able to increase without increasing total range graz-
ing supplies because a large amount of grazing was
released by sheep and dairy cattle and by the substitu-
tion of grains for grazing. While the use of grains was
caused by need to produce a particular kind of meat,
the overall effect on feed supplies was to produce a
larger total meat quantity without requiring addi-
tional grazing.

Table 5.9— Comparison of average total grazing
by kinds of livestock, for the contiguous States,
1965-1967 and 1974-1976

(Million animal unit months-AUM'’s)'

1,063
1,067
+4

Sheep | Horses

Feedlot
cattle

1965-1967
1974-1976
Change
percent
change

*

*Less than 1 percent.
‘An animal unit month (AUM) is the amount of forage required by a 1,000-
pound cow or equivalent in 1 month.

The Projected Demand for Range Grazing

The history of grazing use does not provide suffi-
cient basis for projecting future demand for grazing.
The projected demand for range grazing is related to
all aspects of national and international agriculture
as discussed in the previous section, including chang-
ing demands for livestock products and changes in
the livestock production process. From this general
framework, projections of roughage requirements

- 33U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
Livestock-feed relationships: National and State. Sta. Bull. No.
530. 192 p. 1974. Supplement 1974 to Sta. Bull. No. 530. 101 p.
1975. Also unpublished data.

175

Figure 5.6

Grazing by Kind of Livestock, 1965-1978
Mil. Animal Unit Months

1200
Total Grazing
1000 = Se ea
Linear Trend of Total Grazing < a
o=™ pect Cattle, vee
- he = attle ~
&
600
400
Dair Horses and Mules
i - Cattle
Feed
waa a = — Lots
0 ——————— oo Sa — Ce — = |
1965 1970 1975 1980

and specific indications of demand for range grazing
were developed.34

34 The projections and the associated analyses were derived from
the National Interregional Agricultural Projections (NIRAP) Sys-
tem, as developed and used by the Economics, Statistics, and
Cooperatives Service (ESCS) of the United States Department of
Agriculture. Disposable income is assumed to be a function of
population and economic activities. Per capita consumptions of
beef, veal, and lamb are expressed as a function of per capita
disposable income; the trends in consumptions are nonlinear. The
magnitudes of income elasticity used in the model for beef and
lamb are 0.66 and 1.15 respectively. This income elasticity for beef
and veal is adjusted downward as income increases.

For additional discussion of the NIRAP System, see the
following:

Allen, George, Greg Gage, Larry Otto, Gerald Plato, and
Reuben Weisz. General user’s manual for the goal programing
algorithm. Working paper for the Commodity Economics Division
of the Economic Research Service and the Natural Resource Eco-
nomics Division of the Economic Research Service (now part of
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service), U.S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture, August 1977.

Liu, Chun-lan. Statistical analysis of the demand for feed by
kind of livestock. Manuscript in review process. 1978.

Liu, Chun-lan, et al., 1978, op cit.

Yeh, Chung J. Prices, farm outputs, and income projection
under alternative assumed demand and supply conditions. Am.
Jour. of Agri. Econ. 58(4): November 1976.

176

Projected Demand for Meat

Per capita consumption of beef and veal increased
from 91 pounds (carcass weight) in 1960 to 133
pounds in 1976 (table 5.10). Consumption of beef and
veal is expected to increase to 148 pounds (medium
projection level) by 2030. Consumption of lamb and
mutton decreased from nearly 5 pounds in 1960 to 2
pounds per capita in 1976. The downward trend is
also expected to continue bringing per capita con-
sumption of lamb and mutton to less than | pound by
2030.35 The increasing population and the per capita
consumption of beef lead to substantial increases in
the projected beef and veal production. On the other
hand, the decline in per capita consumption of lamb
and mutton is sufficiently great to result in an overall
decline in the production of lamb and mutton in spite
of the higher population levels (table 5.11).

35 The decrease in per capita consumption of lamb and mutton is
also a result of decline in sheep production due to increased cost
related to predator losses, shortage of labor, and other factors.

Table 5.10 — Historical consumption and pro-
jected demand for beef and veal and lamb and

mutton in the United States for selected years
(Pounds per capita)

Historical consumption

| 1960 | 1965 1970
105 117
4 3

Projected demand

Low 138 | 142 | 146 | 148 | 153

Kinds of meat 1976

Beef and veal
Lamb and mutton

Kinds
of meat

Beef

and veal Medium | 135 140 144 145
High 134 139 141 138

Lamb

and mutton

2 Pl teaa
2 1 1
2 ibe

Table 5.11 — Historical and projected produc-
tion of beef and veal and lamb and mutton

in the United States for selected years
(Million pounds carcass weight)

*Less than 1 pound

Historical production

15,862 | 19,747 | 22,273 | 26,822
768 685 551 371

Projected production

Projec-

34,363 | 34,882
38,432 | 40,488
44,774] 48,949

Kinds of meat

Beef and veal
Lamb and mutton

Kinds
of meat

Beef
and
veal

Lamb
and
mutton

Medium | 30,714

In the high level projection, per capita consump-
tion of beef and veal is lower than in the medium
projection. This is because, in this level, the rate of
population increase is predicted to be larger than the
rate of increase of disposable income. Therefore, per
capita disposable income will decrease. As per capita
disposable income goes down, per capita consump-
tion of beef will also go down. In addition, the larger
population will be competing for beef produced from
a limited resource base.

All three projection levels result in significant
increases in the total demand for beef. By 2030, the
domestic production of beef is projected to increase
by 30, 51, and 82 percent for the low, medium, and
high projection levels, respectively (table 5.11).

Projected Demand for Livestock Feeds

Projected increase in demands for beef will result in
increased demand for all types of livestock feed. If
additional beef production is to be achieved, feed
supplies must be expanded.

Feed/livestock ratio. — Livestock convert rough-
ages, feed, and cereal grains into protein, vitamins,
and other nutrients required and consumed by man-
kind. This conversion process is measured by the
feed/livestock conversion ratio. The ratio compares
the total quantity of feeds consumed by all kinds of
livestock to the total live weight of those livestock
when slaughtered. Thus, the ratio measures all feed,
including waste or other losses, that are necessary to
deliver a pound of live weight animal. Improvements
in such things as animal disease control, nutritional
knowledge, improved handling, and storage of feeds
all contribute to an improved feed/livestock ratio.
The higher the ratio, the more feed is necessary to
produce a pound of livestock weight.3> Management
and research efforts are continually underway to
lower the feed conversion ratio or to improve feed
sources. The feed/livestock ratio for beef animals is
expected to decline slowly after 1985. The conversion
ratio for dairy cattle and sheep should remain stable
or improve. The changing ratios indicate that less
total feed will be needed to support a constant num-
ber of cattle.3’7 Although the feed/livestock ratio for
beef is assumed to decrease, the increasing beef cattle
populations will offset that trend and increase the
importance of grazing.

Cattle cycle. — Cattle prices and production move
through a continuous series of cycles, each cycle
completed in roughly 10 years (fig. 5.7). These cycles
are characterized by high prices when numbers are
low, followed by increased livestock numbers, then
high production and declining prices, and declining
livestock numbers. In the 1978-1979 period, prices are
relatively high and the cycle appears to be near the
low in cattle numbers. This cyclical pattern is
recognized in this demand analysis but the cyclical
pattern itself is not projected. Projection data are in
terms of 10-year averages around the target year. The
cattle cycle also explains the cyclical fluctuations in
the consumption of grazing (fig. 5.6).

36Council for Agricultural Sciences and Technology, 1975, op.
cit.
37 Liu, Chun-lan, et. al. 1978, op. cit.

LT

Figure 5.7
Cattle Cycles, 1930-1979

Cattle and Calves on Farms January 1
Mil.
140

120

100

Number
of Cattle

80 \

60

40

20

0

1930 1940 1950

The shaded sections are periods of herd building.

1960 1970 1980

SS

Roughage components. — Projections of the de-
mand for roughage3* are made on the basis of feed
required to produce a given quantity of beef, sheep,
and mutton which will meet the projected demand for
meat consumption over time. Projections of rough-
age demand were distributed among harvested rough-
ages, nonrange grazing, and range grazing (fig. 5.8).
Under these projections and assumptions, the de-
mand for roughage in medium level projection would
increase from 1,420 million AUM’s in 1976, to 1,966
million AUM’s in year 2030. Total roughage require-
ments will increase by 38 percent, while harvested
roughage requirements will increase by 5 percent and
all grazing by 54 percent. Harvested roughages
expand at a slower rate than grazing because har-
vested roughages are competing for the use of the
same land needed to produce food and feed grains.

38 For the analysis of this report, livestock feeds are grouped into
two main categories — concentrates and roughage. Concentrates
are grains and feed supplements. Roughage is harvested roughage
(hay, silage, sugar beet pulp, etc.) and grazing. Grazing is sub-
divided into two groups — range and nonrange. Nonrange grazing
is further broken down into three types — aftermath grazing (crop
residues in field), cropland pasture (5-year rotation, irrigation,
etc.), and other pasture (permanent pasture other than range).

178

Total grazing has been divided into range and non-
range grazing and the projected demand is shown
separately (table 5.12). Under the medium level of
projections, range grazing increases to 300 million
AUM’s in 2030 from 213 million AUM’s in 1976, an
increase of 41 percent. During the same period, 1976
to 2030, nonrange grazing is projected to increase by
57 percent. Total grazing (range and nonrange) of
1,288 million AUM’s in 1990 and 1,501 million-
AUM’s in 2030 will be required to meet the demands
for beef and other grazing livestock products given
the assumptions of the medium projections.

The projections of expanding grazing requirements
are supported by analysis of the historical changes
and trends in grazing by the various kinds of livestock
(fig. 5.9). Total grazing use shows a downward trend
during 1965-1978 because the decrease in grazing by
dairy cows, sheep, and horses more than offsets the
increase in beef cattle grazing during that period.
However, the trends in demands for grazing by dairy
cattle, sheep, and horses are expected to stabilize by
1985 and remain steady through 2035.39 Demands for
beef cattle grazing (the major determinant of grazing
demand) will continue to rise. As a result, the trend in

Figure 5.8

Current and Projected Levels of Demand for Roughage Components

_ | Harvested Roughage
| Non-Range Grazing
Range Grazing

1805

406 | 432,

1420

444

1976

(animal unit months)

1830 gee

2000

2251

1903 1966

436

2030

demand for total range grazing is expected to bottom
out in the decade 1980-1990 and be upward thereafter
through 2030.

Various rational explanations can be provided for
the projected upward trend in demand for range graz-
ing. Dairy production cannot be expected to continue
to decline and so release grazing as in the past. Even
though per capita consumption of milk is expected to
continue to fall, the expanding population will re-
quire a higher level of milk production; that is, more
dairy cattle will be needed by 2030. Therefore, only
very small amounts of grazing, if any, now used by
dairy cattle will be released in the future for beef
cattle use. Sheep and horse populations may have
reached their minimums; in fact, horse populations
are presently increasing. Therefore, the shifting of
grazing from these kinds of livestock to beef cattle use
as done in the past may possibly not occur in the
future.

39 The magnitude of grazing use by any kind of livestock may
decline to any number including zero over time, but grazing cannot
be negative at any time. Therefore, the future grazing use trend is
projected by using the exponential curve fitting technique. This
technique restricts the magnitude of grazing to take only a positive
or zero number.

Table 5.12 — Projected demand for range and
non-range grazing in the United States under
alternative projections to 2030

(Million animal unit months-AUM'’s)!

Projection
level

Low
Medium
High

287 284
213 270 287 290 295
301 313

Low
Medium
High

Low
Medium
High

All levels

‘An animal unit month is the amount of forage required by a 1,000-pound cow
or equivalent in 1 month.

179

Figure 5.9

SS

Historical Trend in Grazing by Type of Livestock and Extension of Trend to 2030

Mil. Animal Unit Months
1400
1200

Total Grazing
1000

as =

Beef Cattle

_== =

800

600

400

Dairy Sheep and Goats

Horses and Mules

1995

2005 2015 2025

In addition, the heavy substitution of grains for
grazing in beef production cannot be repeated. In
fact, the desire for less fat in beef may result in less
grain used in beef production, resulting in further
increases in demand for grazing. Thus, increases in
beef production will require additional quantities of
grazed roughages.

Projected Regional Demands
for All Grazing

Projections of demand for grazing by geographic
regions are based on the distribution of the demand
for all grazing (table 5.13). Projections were based
upon the traditional pattern of grazing and do not
include alternatives that consider the relative produc-
tion capabilities and costs of grazing among the
regions. It is assumed that the regional distribution of
demand for all grazing will be the same for both
range and nonrange grazing.

180

Table 5.13 — /ndexes of projected demand
(medium level) for grazing by sections and
regions in the contiguous States

(1976 = 100)

Section

and 1976 | 1990 | 2000 | 2010} 2020
region

North

Northeast 138

North Central 137
South 185
Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains

Rocky

Mountains 136

Great Plains 161

Pacific Coast 138

Total

Local Demand and Federal Lands

The discussions and analysis of demand for range
grazing up to this point have been solely in terms of
the relationship to demand for food at the national
level. However, since grazing as a source of livestock
feed is geographically fixed, there are important
aspects of local demand for range grazing which
differ from national and regional demands. In gen-
eral, local demand for range grazing responds to the
local mix and availability of other livestock feeds.
Range grazing is currently integrated into the bal-
anced operation of each individual cattle and sheep
producing operation. Changes in the amount of range
grazing or inability of the range to increase produc-
tion relative to increases in total demand for grazing
will adversely impact livestock producers using range
grazing.

Importance of Federal lands. — Livestock grazing
on Federal range is of major importance in the live-
stock production process in the 11 western States,
where 90 percent of the Federally-owned grazed lands
are located. The quantity of grazing permitted is con-
trolled by the capacity of the land to sustain livestock
grazing in relation to other use requirements.

Much of the Federal land grazing is seasonal and
falls into a natural complementary role in year-round
cattle or sheep production enterprises. The Federal
lands provide feed in one or more seasons of the year,
often when forage on associated privately owned
lands is not available, and the rancher provides feed
for the remainder of the year from the privately
owned lands. Since this complementary use of land in
private and Federal ownership follows the natural
production capacity of the land, it represents a more
efficient use of grazing resources than can be accom-
plished by other combinations of land use. Thus, the
efficiency of the livestock industry in areas with large
acreages of Federal land open to grazing has a strong
relationship to Federal range grazing. In such areas,
the demand for Federal range grazing is very strong.

The limiting factor in many local areas (especially
in the West) that determines the operating size of
many livestock operations is often the amount of
Federal range available during seasons of feed short-
age on the privately-owned range.4? Such critical
periods may occur in the fall prior to hay feeding, in
the summer when forage on private lands is low in
nutritive value compared to forage on Federal ranges
at higher elevations, or when private lands are needed
to produce crops for winter forage. The relationship

40 Bartlett, E. T., L. E. Mack, Garth Taylor. Economic effects of
reductions in Federal grazing upon the economy of Colorado.
Unpublished manuscript. June 1979.

of range grazing on Federal lands is very strong in
many local areas, and variations in the supply of this
source of grazing have a significant impact on the
livestock industry in those areas. Alternative sources
of feed are available to the private sector in some
situations, while some livestock operations depend
wholly upon the Federal lands for their livestock for-
age. While the growth rate of the cattle industry over-
all might be reduced, the industry can make adjust-
ments to restrictions in the quantity of Federal
grazing available.*!

Much of the grazing on Federal lands, such as that in this
high basin, is seasonal, taking place only in the warm
months of the year.

The sheep industry is especially dependent upon
Federal grazing lands. Nearly half of the sheep pro-
ducers that own more than 2,500 head of sheep use
Federal range, which provides about 42 percent of
their annual forage requirements. The cattle industry
and production of beef is widely distributed through
the United States, and the Federal lands provide a
minor portion of the total feed consumed by beef
cattle. While the Federal land relationship to cattle
production is not as dramatic as with sheep, the rela-
tionship between sources of feed and cattle produc-
tion is often very important in local situations and to
individual users throughout the western States. Fed-
eral land has minor local impacts on the livestock
production process outside the western States.

41 Godfrey, E. Bruce. Private adjustments to changes in grazing

on public lands. Unpublished manuscript prepared under contract
by Utah State University for RPA, Forest Service. May 1978.

181

Demand in Alaska and Hawaii. — In Alaska, 10 to
13 million acres of grassland have been estimated to
have range potential for cattle, sheep, and horses.4?
However, the prospects for increasing Alaskan pro-
duction of red meat from cattle and sheep and, hence,
demand for range grazing are very low.*3 The lack of
development of Alaska’s latent agricultural regions
and the absence of any organized effort to promote
the required infrastructure preclude the development
of an expanding meat production industry. Devel-
opment of meat production for subsistence from wild
game is not expected to respond to changing
imported meat costs until there is a philosophical
change in wildlife management which accommodates
a staging of resources and harvest techniques to
inaugurate a maximum “sustained yield harvest” of
meat from “wild” animal species. Moreover, even if
commitment of the public and private sectors were
made at this time (1979), at least 10 years would be
needed to stage resources, institutional and agency
programs, philosophical and technical concepts, and
personnel and experience sufficient to initiate the
needed flow of knowledge, technology, and services.
A second decade would be needed to stage significant
production capability and infrastructures.

The primary basis for the Hawaiian beef industry is
the utilization of some 1.3 million acres of grasslands
(pasture and range).44 Increases in the demand for
grazing will primarily be met through improved man-
agement. However, the higher demand for red meat
will be met primarily through increased shipment of
meat to Hawaii from other States.

Potential Supplies of Grazing

The quantity of grazed roughages needed to meet
the demands for livestock feed is a function of the
available feed sources. Grazed roughages can be pro-
duced from both nonrange and range sources.

Nonrange Sources

Data on nonrange sources of grazing in the United
States are limited and incomplete. The following
analysis is constructed from a variety of sources and

42 Tomlin, D. C. Grazing lands of Alaska. Alaska’s agricultural
potential. Alaska Rural Dev. Counc. Publ. N.1. (as cited in USDA
appraisal 1980, Rev. draft, Part I). Soil and Water Resource Con-
servation Act. 1979. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conser-
vation Service. 1979.

43 Burton, Wayne E. Range grazing demands in Alaska. Unpub-
lished manuscript prepared under contract by the University of
Alaska for RPA, Forest Service. December 1977.

44 Wilson, C. Peairs. Range grazing demand in Hawaii. Unpub-
lished manuscript prepared under contract by the University of
Hawaii for RPA, Forest Service. May 1978.

182

reconciled with data on total grazing and range
grazing.

Part of the increasing demands for livestock prod-
ucts and the subsequent increase in demand for
grazed roughages can be met by several nonrange
grazing alternatives including: (1) Use of more crop-
land for grazing, (2) grazing of crop aftermath, and
(3) increasing pasture and cropland pasture yields.
Each alternative offers opportunities to increase the
amount of grazed roughage from nonrange lands.

Cropland used for grazing. — Shifts of land use
between crop production and cropland used for pas-
ture have historically occurred in response to chang-
ing markets and governmental policies and programs.
In 1910, cropland used for pasture amounted to
about 84 million acres and this declined to a low of 66
million acres in 1959. By 1969, total cropland pasture
had increased to 88 million acres, and then declined
to 84 million acres in 1975.45

There is a potential to divert additional cropland
acreage from crop production to livestock grazing.*6
For example, Federal grain production control pro-
grams whereby farmers are paid to divert cropland
from grain production can encourage the use of crop-
land for grazing. The cost of such a change is the
difference between the net return of producing crops
and the net return for pasture. The amount of such
increased conversion is limited. Much of the diverted
acreage is controlled by farmers who either do not
own cattle or sheep or who may not wish to increase
the size of their livestock operation. And finally, the
land available for diversion is frequently unfenced,
and fencing represents a significant cost which could
not be recovered in the brief time the area was grazed.

The amount of land under these programs varies
from year to year. In 1972, nearly 60 million acres
were withheld from grain production. In the 1973-
1977 period, the program was smaller or nonexistent.
In 1978 and 1979, the program again involved sub-
stantial acreages. Assuming about 40 percent of the
acreage diverted in 1972 to be representative, there
could be approximately 24 million acres of additional
land available for grazing.4” This land is estimated to
have a potential production of 4.6 to 9.3 AUM’s per
acre or 110 to 220 million AUM’s annually. However,

45U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agricultural statistics 1977.
Unnumbered publication, 614 p. Washington, D.C. 1977.

46 Gilliam, Henry C., Jr. Beef cattle production potential of set-
aside land. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research
Service, Washington, D.C. ERS-530. November 1973.

47 Johnson, James, and Milton H. Erickson. Commodity pro-
gram provisions under the Food and Agriculture Act of 1977. U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (now
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service), Agric. Econ.
Rep. 389, 31 p. 1977.

it is expected that little, if any, of the potential
acreage will be used for grazing. Grazing use is not
likely because of the large annual variations in the
diverted acreage and because of the increased
demand for other uses of cropland. Thus, it is
expected that no more than 84 million acres of crop-
land will be used for pasture in future years.

Pasture acreage. — It is possible to convert croland
to pasture and thereby increase the acreage and pro-
duction of grazed roughages from pastures. Conver-
sion of cropland to pasture to meet livestock feed
needs, however, is not feasible under the alternative
situations projected. Crop production must increase
by 50 to 97 percent to meet basic food needs during
the same time that livestock roughage production is
increasing. In addition, because of nonagricultural
uses, less total cropland will be available. Since the
conversion of cropland to pastureland is not likely to
occur in a significant amount in the future in this
analysis, the pasture acreage is assumed to remain
constant through the 1976 to 2030 period.*8

Crop aftermath. — Crop aftermath is that portion
of the plant left in the field after the primary harvest.
The amount available depends on the crop, produc-
tion systems, and the demand for that crop rather
than any response to the need for livestock feed. Pro-
duction of hay, for example, results in considerable
aftermath grazing while production of corn silage
yields very little aftermath. At present, grazing of
aftermath is a common practice in many areas and
expansion of aftermath grazing does represent an
opportunity to provide additional feed as feed pro-
duction costs and demands for feed increase. The role
of aftermath grazing in production of cattle and
sheep is uncertain. Changes in the supply of after-
math available for grazing are a function of the crop-
producing system and is not derived by the demand
for grazing. Currently, an estimated 14 million
AUM’s of grazing in the form of aftermath, or 2 per-
cent of all nonrange grazing, are consumed. The in-
creased quantity of aftermath grazing is assumed not
to exceed 5 percent (60 million AUM’s) of nonrange
grazing by 2030.%9

Increasing pasture and cropland pasture yields. —
Because the acreages of pasture and cropland pasture

48 The analysis does not consider the conversion of range to
pasture. Increased outputs from range are considered as a function
of range improvements and not as a conversion to pasture.

49 Higher estimates of aftermath grazing are available. A huge
quantity of roughage from corn, milo, wheat, etc., remains in the
fields. However, removal of this roughage requires replacement of
nutrients by fertilizers of increasing cost or the roughage may
become an energy source. Existence of these factors prompted use
of a conservative estimate of livestock use of crop aftermath in this
analysis.

are very unlikely to increase, greater amounts of
roughages from nonrange sources must be achieved
through increased yield per acre. Increased herbage
yields from pasture and cropland pasture are feasible.
The production of dry matter on grazing lands in the
humid, temperate climates of the United States can
be increased as much as three times by improved
practices. °>!

Increased production from grazed roughages can
also be achieved by better management of the live-
stock and livestock use of the grazing lands as well as
through improved quality.52 However, all such im-
provements are included in this analysis as an
increase in dry matter per acre and, hence, as in-
creased animal unit months of grazing per acre.

Cropland pasture on 84 million acres produced 385
million AUM’s of grazing in 1976 with an average
yield per acre of 4.6 AUM’s of grazing (table 5.14).
Projected increased yields per acre of 70 and 79 per-
cent by 2000 and 2030 are assumed. The high yield
level of cropland pasture, both current and projected,
reflects the high productive capacity of cropland rela-
tive to other pasture. Cropland pasture also includes
irrigated cropland pasture. Because of the basic
higher productive capacity of cropland pasture, irri-
gation, and the availability of the means to further
increase production via irrigation and fertilization, it
is expected that cropland pasture will yield higher
amounts of forage.

Pasture is the permanent grazing area which is not
classified as range. Pasturelands are generally more
productive than range but generally less productive
than the croplands and the average yield per acre in
1976-78 was only 70 percent of the cropland pasture
yields. It is estimated that pasture yields could be
increased threefold, to over 8 AUM’s of grazing per
acre under intensive management and fertilization.%3
This estimate is optimistic because it was estimated
during a period when the cost of fertilization was low.
Because the higher costs of energy are reflected in
fertilizer prices, the feasible level of fertilization will
be lower than previously estimated. Pasture yields are
expected to increase during the 1976-78 to 2030
period but at a slower rate than cropland pasture.

50Bula, R. M., U. L. Lechtenberg, D. A. Holt. Potential of
temperate zone cultivated forages for ruminant animal production.
In: Potential of the world’s forages for ruminant animal produc-
tion. 91 p. Winrock International Livestock Research and Training
Center, Morrilton, Ark. p. 14, 15, and 27. September 1977.

5! Martin, J. H., W. H. Leonard, D. L. Stamp. Principles of field
crop production, McMillan, N.Y. p. 272. 1976.

°? Hodgson, Harlow J. Food from plant products — forage.
Proceedings of Symposium on complementary roles of plant and
animal products in the U.S. food system. November 29-30, 1977.
National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. p. 56-74. 1977.

53 Hodgson, op cit.

183

The production of herbage from pastures in the humid eastern half
of the country can be increased by as much as three times with
improved practices.

Pasture yields are assumed to increase by 50 percent
or to 4 AUM’s of grazing per acre by 2030. By 2030,
pasture yields per acre would be less than 50 percent
of cropland pasture yields. Under these yield esti-
mates, pasture could provide 454 million AUM’s of
grazing by 2030.

Range Sources

Range grazing trends. — The supply of range graz-
ing has historically followed the pattern of changing
beef cattle numbers and the price relationships of
range grazing to other livestock feed sources. Range
grazing increased as the West was settled and peaked
during the food crisis of World War I, especially on
Federal lands. Thereafter, it stabilized at a somewhat
lower level. From the 1940’s until the present, most of
the increases in livestock feed for the rapidly growing
beef cattle numbers were supplied, not by range graz-
ing, but by increased use of grain and by roughage
sources formerly used for dairy cattle, sheep, and
horses. Thus, the production and use of range grazing
has been relatively unchanged. In 1976, range pro-
duced about 213 million AUM’s of livestock grazing,
the same produced in 1970. Extending this 1970 to
1976 trend to 2030, the supply of range grazing would
remain about 213 million AUM’s of grazing if the
investment in range improvement is not increased
above the current level.

Biological potential. — The Nation’s range has the
physical capacity to produce more grazing to meet
projected demands. The ultimate biological potential
production from the range has been estimated at 566
million AUM’s, more than 2/4 times the 1976 supply

184

level of 213 million AUM’s. This could be achieved
by applying intensive management levels on all of the
more than | billion acres of range. This production
level (566 million AUM’s) is not attainable as a prac-
tical matter because much of the range is used for
other purposes, such as timber production; the
increased management for range grazing purposes
would adversely affect production of timber and
other range outputs.

A more useful estimate of biological potential is
derived by considering only that portion of the range
which is currently being grazed (789 million acres) as
available for intensive management. Under intensive
management, improved grazing systems and range
developments are used to maintain and improve the
condition of the range ecosystems. Since ranges in
less than good condition produce less forage than
those in good condition, improvements can be rea-
sonably expected to increase production. An illustra-
tion of this that does not consider the economic feasi-
bility of such improvements follows:

The largest rangeland ecosystem, plains grasslands,
occupies 175.2 million acres and has a natural aver-
age potential production of 1,016 pounds per acre
(table 2.6). About 25.8 million acres are in good con-
dition, 59.9 million acres are in very poor condition
(table 5.2). If the 172.4 million acres grazed in this
ecosystem were improved to good condition, thereby
achieving an average production of 1,016 pounds per
acre from all lands in the ecosystem, the expected
increase in production would be 21.2 million tons of
herbage and browse (table 5.15). This is a third more
than the 66.4 million-ton production now obtained
from the ecosystem. Similarly, production could be
increased from the smaller but more productive
prairie ecosystem by 14.3 million tons, from sage-
brush by 13.8 million tons, and from desert shrub by
1.4 million tons.

The biological potential for grazing on the Nation’s ranges is more
than two and a half times current production levels.

Table 5.14 — Non-range grazing, 1976-78 average and projected grazing capacity in the United States
for 2000 and 2030

Million
acres

Million
animal
unit
months
1

Non-range

grazing unit

Pasture
Cropland
pasture
Aftermath
Total

Million
animal

months

Percent change
in yield

Animal Million Animal
unit animal unit ReGacle
months unit months :
per months per to
acre acre

‘An animal unit month (AUM) is the amount of forage required by a 1,000-pound cow or equivalent in 1 month.

Table 5.15 — Present and expected production of herbage and browse and range grazing on the two
largest grassland and shrubland ecosystems

Ecosystem

Million
Acres

Tons

66.4
50.6
oe S

172.4

39.1
116.8
57.1

Plains grasslands
Prairie
Sagebrush
Desert shrub

‘Production expected if all lands grazed were in “good” condition.

2 Assumes that 45 percent of the herbage and browse would be available as
forage if the range were in good condition and that 1 ton of forage equals 2.5
AUM's.

Thus, the plains grasslands, prairie, sagebrush, and
desert shrub ecosystems could provide a total of 219.6
million tons of herbage if all lands grazed in those
ecosystems were improved to good condition. Assum-
ing 45 percent of the herbage and browse is available,
this production is the equivalent of 247 million
AUM’s of grazing, 120 million more than the eco-
systems now produce. In other words, these four
ecosystems, which now supply about 60 percent of
the Nation’s range grazing, could in themselves pro-
vide almost as many AUM’s of range grazing as are
projected to be needed in year 2000 without increas-
ing area grazed in the ecosystems if all of their
acreage were improved to good condition, a prob-
ability highly unlikely because of economic con-
siderations.

The biological potential indicates only the physical
capacity of the ecosystem for producing forage. Addi-
tional grazing above the current level is possible only
at increasing costs because more intense manage-
ment, technology, and improvements are needed. The
physical limits of range grazing supply do not restrict

| ——s~Present production =| | ——s~Present production =|

Area Herbage Range Herbage
grazed & browse grazing & browse

Million

Potential production’

Range
grazing?

Million Million Million
AUM’s? Tons AUM’s
54.3 87.6 98.6
45.4 64.9 73.0
e 3 es ; 67.5

8.0

3An animal unit month (AUM) is the amount of forage required by a 1,000
pound cow or equivalent in one month.

the demand, but the question remains how much
range grazing can be increased and at what cost. The
per unit costs of range grazing at biological potential
are likely to be more than double the current costs.
Such cost levels would exceed the amounts that could
be recovered and would probably result in the use of
nonrange sources of feed for livestock.

Institutional constraints such as maintenance of
undisturbed ecosystems, perpetuation of all plant and
animal species, and multiple use constraints may
often prevent reaching the biological potential on
range ecosystem. Constraints against application of
certain technology may further limit achievement of
the biological potential, primarily by increasing the
cost of range management.

It is possible that production per acre on range will
increase at a slower rate than that shown for cropland
pasture and other pasture (table 5.14). Much of the
range is in the semiarid areas of the United States. In
the drier areas, range yields can be very low with very
limited opportunities to increase output to any signifi-
cant extent. However, the yields and responses of the

185

range ecosystems vary widely. Range includes land in
humid areas where current yields per acre reach
3 AUM’s, and under intensive management, yields of
6 AUM’s per acre are expected by 2030.

Projected Demand
and Supply Relationships

Demand and Supply Comparisons

Meeting the projected demands for range over the
next 50 years will require a substantial increase in
supply above the current level. Demand under the
medium projection series is estimated at 300 million
AUWM’s by 2030 (table 5.12), 87 million AUM’s above
current supply (fig. 5.10). Such a deficit would result
in a rise in the production cost of beef and other
livestock products or result in a reduction in the
amount of beef consumed per capita because of
increased consumer prices for beef. Under the
assumptions of the high projections, demand in-
creases to 347 million AUM’s, while the low projec-
tions assumptions result in a 280 million AUM
estimate.

Figure 5.10

Another focus of the demand/supply relationship
is the annual variability of grazing supplies as
opposed to the constant need for livestock to have
feed. Because of the variability in growth of demand
and the time lag and uncertainties of range produc-
tion, the costs and benefits of adequate supplies ver-
sus supply deficits become important. If deficits are
to be avoided, the range grazing supply must be
related to the peak demands which occur with the
high animal numbers at the peak of the cattle cycle.
The development and maintenance of range grazing
supplies in the semiarid areas of the West are particu-
larly critical because of the magnitude of range graz-
ing’s contribution to livestock production in that
area. The relatively long time required to modify
range supplies after investments are made (3 to 10
years may be required to achieve production in-
creases) also supports the need to plan for peak
periods.

Optimization of Grazing

The concept of grazing output optimization inte-
grates the cost of production and the value of produc-
tion at the margin. The optimization of grazing
requires the condition of equalization of the cost

Comparison of Current Trend in Supply with Projected Trend in Demand for

Animal Unit Months of Range Grazing
Mil. Animal Unit Months

300 ieee
=—e
—— aa ih
acorn
om
y a
215 of
fo
4
7
7
/ .
250 7 eseeeeee Historical Demand Supply Relationship
4 eeess== Projected Supply
4 == === Projected Demand

220

200
1970

1976

1990

2000

2010 2020 2030

186

incurred and benefits derived from the production of
an additional unit of AUM of grazing to the nation.
So, the determination of the optimum grazing neces-
sitates the estimate of the marginal cost (i.e., the ratio
of the increase in cost to the increase in output) and
the benefit (i.e., the AUM value) of grazing at differ-
ent levels of demand and supply.

The estimated value for an AUM of grazing in 1976
is $4.22 and would increase (in constant dollars) to
$6.12 by 2030. The marginal cost is estimated at $4.46
in 1976 for a production level of 213 million AUM’s
of grazing and would increase to $5.00 for a produc-
tion level of 365 million AUM’s. These estimates
indicate that the projected demand of 300 million
AUM’s, medium projection, or 347 million AUM’s
high projection, for 2030 could be supplied with eco-
nomic justification, because the estimated value of
grazing covers the cost of producing this level of
AUM. Annual production up to 365 million AUM’s
falls within the range of economic feasibility, but
increasing production above 365 million AUM’s
would increase costs more than the economic value of
AUM’s produced.

Estimated cost of supplying the different levels of
range grazing indicates that the nation has the capa-
bility to meet expected demands. Achieving this level,
however, will require investments in management and
range development programs to increase the supply
of range grazing above the current level. However, if
grazing could be distributed across the rangeland in
the most advantageous way from both economic and
environmental points of view, the cost of producing
the. current level of grazing would be significantly
reduced. Such a distribution has been analyzed as a
part of this assessment effort.54 Increased manage-
ment intensity and grazing would occur on desirable
locations, and grazing would be eliminated from
marginal or undesirable locations. Average produc-
tion on the acreage grazed would increase by 85 per-
cent, from 0.27 to 0.50 AUM’s per acre per year. The
most significant changes were suggested for private
lands and the Federal lands administered by the
Bureau of Land Management.

Impact of Increased Energy Prices

Increases in the prices of energy used in agricul-
tural production may change the projected economic

54 Ashton, Peter G., James B. Pickens, Coryell Ohlander, and
Bruce Benninghaff. Many resources, many uses . . . a system analy-
sis approach to current and future renewable resource develop-
ment. Presented at the 15th Annual American Water Resources
Association Conference on Water Resources Management in a
Changing Society. Las Vegas, Nevada, September 24-28, 1979.
Estimates are derived from use of this multi-resource interaction,
linear programing model.

supply of range grazing. Increases in energy prices
increase the production costs of all agricultural pro-
duction including range grazing. It is estimated that a
doubling of real energy prices could result in on-farm
agricultural production costs rising by 8 percent.*5

Energy prices will be significant to projected range
grazing only if range production costs increase at a
different rate than production costs of other sources
of livestock feed. The increased costs of energy will
have the largest impact on costs of producing those
feeds using the most energy (particularly fertilizer)
such as the feed grains. Therefore, the first impact of
increased energy costs is to increase the cost of grains
relative to forages, and hence lead to increased use of
grazing in the production of beef.

Increased energy costs also are expected to modify
the geographic distribution of grazing at economi-
cally feasible levels. For example, those areas with
lower levels of response to fertilization become less
competitive as fertilizer prices increase. As the price
of fuels increases, range practices requiring large
inputs of such fuels will become more expensive. Sim-
ilarly, grazing areas in more remote locations requir-
ing the use of vehicles over long distances also
become less competitive as the price of fuel for these
vehicles increases.

Range livestock production is a relatively low con-
sumer of energy compared to production systems
using large quantities of grains. Forage production
on range is largely a function of natural processes
using energy from the sun, whereas grain production
depends on cultivation activities using high-cost fossil
fuel energy. Therefore, one way for the livestock
industry to meet production and income goals in the
face of higher energy costs is to produce red meat by
more effectively utilizing range and other roughages
and by reducing the use of grains. Thus, energy price
increases will result in grazing, including range graz-
ing, being an increasingly advantageous economic
situation. Eventually, the production limitations of
the land use for grazing, and especially range grazing
in the more arid areas, can be expected to equalize the
energy cost relationship as more intensive manage-
ment is applied. Therefore, the initial effect of energy
price increases will increase the relative demand for
range grazing. Later, as the resource capability of the
range is utilized, the increased demand for livestock
feeds will have diminishing impact on the demand for
range grazing.

55U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economics, Statistics, and
Cooperatives Service. Energy policies: Price impacts on the U.S.
food system. Agric. Econ. Rep. No. 407, 44 p. 1978.

187

35 : a g ie 28 ee 2s
Rising energy costs are likely to increase the demand for range
forage, the product of natural processes using energy from the sun.

Environmental Constraints

Producers of livestock could be affected by several
forms of environmental constraints, including limita-
tions on the use of pesticides and feed additives,
restrictions on tillage practices, restrictions on soil
erosion, controls upon irrigation water discharge, and
animal waste disposal. Most of the environmental
constraints would favor increased feeding of forage
and greater range grazing and cause decreases in use
of grains. However, rising energy prices may mitigate
part of the restrictive impacts of stricter environ-
mental controls upon waste disposal from animal
feedlots. Manure may become an economical substi-
tute for high energy-using chemical fertilizers, thus
solving the disposal problems.°® Similarly, environ-
mental constraints and higher energy costs will
impact on pasture and range improvements and vege-
tation manipulation. In any event, while it is evident
that tighter regulations can be expected to increase
the cost of meat to the consumer, it is not certain to
what degree the mix of grain, pasture, and range used
will be affected. The general conclusion, however, is
that environmental constraints will improve the eco-
nomic advantage of grazing relative to grains and
harvested forages as sources of livestock feed.

56 Hodgson, H. J., and R. E. Hodgson. Changing patterns in
beef cattle production. Agri. Sci. Rev. 8(4): 16-24. 1970.

188

Federal Lands

Wilderness. — Classification of Federal land areas
into wilderness under provisions of the Wilderness
Act of 1964 has had some effect on Federal range
grazing. Although the Act permits grazing to con-
tinue where it was established prior to the effective
date of the Act (September 3, 1964), meeting other
requirements of the Act has been somewhat inhibit-
ing to range use of these areas. Proposed range devel-
opments in wilderness must be limited to those that
leave the classified areas essentially unimpaired for
future use and enjoyment as wilderness. A 1978 study
of National Forest System roadless areas (ne., RARE
II) for prospective classification into wilderness indi-
cated a reduction in grazing of about 500,000 AU M’s
may occur if all the studied areas were classified as
wilderness.

Endangered species. — Another factor potentially
restrictive to achievement of Federal range grazing
potential is associated with requirements of the
Endangered Species Act of 1973. Some plants, pro-
posed for classification as endangered and threat-
ened, are present today because of grazing; the habi-
tat for others can be improved with improved grazing
management; while other species require total protec-
tion from grazing. To meet the provisions of the Act,
all Federal programs must be carefully analyzed to
determine the potential for harm in each situation
and to provide for protection and conservation of the
classified species. To date, the impact upon Federal
range programs has been minimal because none of
the plants (as of July 1, 1979) classified as endangered
or threatened has been so classified because of graz-
ing. The potential impact will depend upon the needs
of species classified and the nature of future programs.

Wild horses and burros. — A potentially inhibiting
situation which would constrain expansion of grazing
for livestock applies only to Federal lands adminis-
tered by the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land
Management. The Wild Horses and Burros Protec-
tion Act of 1971 directs that wild horses and burros
be considered an integral part, or component, of the
natural system on the public lands where they were
found as of 1971. Forage and other habitat require-
ments for wild free-roaming horses and burros in
established territories must be considered when use of
the range is being allocated. However, the 1976 wild
horse and burro population consumed less than four-
tenths of | percent of all range grazing and less than
5 percent of the grazing on Federal lands adminis-
tered by the two agencies.

Opportunities for Increasing Range Grazing
Management Application Opportunities

The amount of range grazing can be expanded by
improving grazing management systems, installing
structural and nonstructural range improvements,
and plant control. The increase in range grazing must
be related to both the demand for range grazing and
the demand for improved environmental quality.

Increased supplies of range grazing can be achieved
by applying existing range management technology.
Some of the primary management tools are (1) graz-
ing management including kinds and classes of live-
stock, stocking rates, grazing seasons and improved
systems of grazing; (2) range improvements including
water development, fencing, seeding, and undesirable
plant control and pest management and control using
mechanical, fire, chemical, and biological methods;
and (3) through coordination with others uses.

Better range condition and stewardship of the
range resource can be achieved through improved
management. The science of range management has
developed under a philosophy of stewardship —pre-
venting damage to public and private resources and
restoring depleted rangelands.*’**? Through proper
management, range can be used perpetually for graz-
ing while simultaneously providing the public with
high-quality air and water, open space, and recre-
ation.

Grazing systems are one means for getting the kind
of grazing desired throughout a management area.
Some simple systems entail no more than turning live-
stock into a fenced area, providing them with water
and salt, and removing the animals when the vegeta-
tion has been grazed to a desired amount. Other sys-
tems are quite complex and involve rotating livestock
among several pasture units during a given grazing
season with the order of rotation varied between
years.

Improved grazing systems designed to consider the
multiple requirements of soil, vegetation, livestock,
wildlife, and nongrazing uses of the range usually will
support more grazing use over time than the grazing
management currently practiced in most areas. Initia-
tion of improved range management programs on
ranges suffering from too many livestock and too lit-

57Roberts, Paul H. Hoofprints on forest ranges —the early
years of National Forest range administration. 151 p., illus. San
Antonio, Texas. 1963.

58Stoddard, Laurence A., and Arthur D. Smith. Range man-
agement. Ed. 2, 433 p., illus. New York. 1955.

59U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. The western
range. Senate Doc. 199, 620 p. 1936.

60 Lloyd, R. Duane, et. al. Range ecosystem research: The chal-
lenge of change. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agric. Info. Bull.
No. 346, 26 p. 1970.

tle management can produce significant increases in
forage and environmental quality at low cost.

Providing forage in relation to the physiological
needs of both the plants and grazing animals is one
way toward increased effectiveness through manage-
ment. An example is managing range in a manner
which provides forage for elk winter use, deer spring
use, and fall livestock use, and simultaneously main-
taining a high ecological condition. Grazing systems
and related improvements must be designed to meet
specific site requirements and must be applied accord-
ingly to economic feasibility, site production poten-
tial, and vegetation needs. As range management
intensifies, better care and management of the envi-
ronment will result. Management systems must con-
sider costs of the predicted outputs, i.e., cost-
effectiveness is an important criterion of successful
grazing systems.

Structural improvements, such as fences and water
developments, are designed to control the movement
and distribution of livestock and facilitate their han-
dling. Nonstructural improvements are practices,
such as seeding, fertilization, and plant control, that
are designed to increase production, nutritional qual-
ity, and availability of forage.

Some rangeland is currently underused or not used
at all because of inadequate drinking water for live-
stock. Under intensive and improved management
systems, these ranges often can be brought into pro-
ductive use by constructing fences and developing
additional water supplies.

Seeding of palatable grasses and legumes also pro-
vides significant opportunities to increase forage pro-
duction. Seeding can be used to hasten rehabilitation
of depleted ranges, replace less palatable or less desir-
able species, or provide forage at critical seasons. For
example, crested wheatgrass is often seeded to pro-
vide palatable early spring forage so that grazing of
native range can be delayed until the native plants are
more fully developed and better able to withstand
grazing.

Control of poisonous plants, such as larkspur in
the foothills and mountain grasslands of the Rocky
Mountains, can open large areas to early summer
grazing by cattle. Another opportunity to provide
additional range forage, especially in the West, is the
control of shrubs such as mesquite, sagebrush, and
juniper that have invaded grasslands.

Insects and diseases consume large amounts of
vegetation and limit seed supplies of many range
plants. Integrated pest management programs, though
now in their infancy, have promise to enhance range
yields.

189

Good fencing is an important tool in managing livestock grazing on range.

Forest management practices can be modified to increase the
production of forage from forest lands.

Use of fertilizers in native range, though often con-
sidered, has not been extensive in the past. It is not
expected to be a widespread activity in the future
because of continuously escalating costs of inorganic
fertilizers in relation to benefits. However, fertiliza-

190

tion does offer limited opportunities to increase for-
age, especially on private lands with high productivity
and where livestock can be very intensively managed.

Significant opportunities to increase range grazing
occur on portions of the 482 million acres of com-
mercial forest land. Commercial harvesting of mature
tree stands will often result in temporary (5 to 10
years) production of grasses, shrubs, and forbs that
are palatable to livestock. Intensive timber manage-
ment practices such as thinning, pruning, and site
preparation, can be modified in scope, timing, and
intensity to Increase the amount, and to extend the
period of forage production throughout the timber
rotation as well as improve the forest stand. There are
some spinoffs from grazing in the forest that are
advantageous to timber production. When properly
managed, livestock can benefit the forest through
consuming vegetation that competes with trees.
Improper or uncontrolled grazing, of course, can
seriously jeopardize the timber resource. It is impera-
tive, therefore, that livestock grazing in forest stands
be planned, controlled, and coordinated so that use
of the forage resource will not impair the productivity
of the land.

Not only is grazing compatible with other uses on
vast acreages of public lands, range grazing and asso-
ciated activities can be used to benefit other resource
uses. There can be both economic and social benefits
in multiple-use management of these lands. In Cali-
fornia, for example, cattle and goats are used to help
maintain fuel breaks in the chaparral-type to reduce
wildfire hazards. Controlled grazing is often used to

maintain grassy and shrubby openings in forested
areas, thus improving habitat for certain species of
wildlife such as wild turkey, white-tailed deer, and
quail. Many range improvements designed to im-
prove livestock grazing also improve habitat for wild-
life. Fences built for livestock control provide perches
for a variety of birds and small mammals, and are
frequently used to help manage hunter use. Water
developments, range seedings, and prescribed range
burns enhance the value of range for upland game
birds. Livestock production programs geared to min-
imize energy costs have resulted in considerable sav-
ings of water per unit of meat produced, an important
consideration in water-short areas of the western
United States.®!

The key to wise use of the range is sound and coor-
dinated land management planning. Land manage-
ment planning is predicated on the basic premise that
a mutuality of private and public interests exists to
preserve and develop the resources of the land. Con-
servation of the range is an economic and political
issue dealing with the question of allocation of
resources between or among generations over longer
periods of time. Private owners usually adopt range
improvement practices in response to the expected
economic gain resulting from the practices. Because
their perceptions and interests do not extend as far as
do those of nations, private owners may tend to dis-
count the value of future range production more than
is consistent with the national interest. That is, the
public may have a greater appreciation for the con-
servation of the soil and vegetation today to protect
the potential for output in the year 2030 than do the
private owners with their need for current income.
While meat production is a primary factor in the
demand for range, stewardship of the range resource
is also a matter of vital public interest and must be
considered as well as the demand for meat.

Technical Assistance

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, through its
research, technical assistance, and extension pro-
grams, works closely with the owners and managers
of non-Federal lands to improve the productivity and
profitability of their operation. Asa result, significant
progress has been made in the appreciation of sound
range management on non-Federal lands. However,
range scientists recognize that much can still be done
to improve range resources by using presently avail-
able technology.

61 Ward, 1976, op. cit.

Modification and intensification of the technical
assistance process can help materially in using avail-
able technology to achieve more effective range man-
agement. Range management systems make their
greatest contributions to the conservation and pro-
ductivity of range resources if they are well planned,
efficiently installed, and adequately maintained.
Strengthening the technical assistance program in all
three phases of range management systems will result
in increased forage and meat production as well as
maintaining range resources for future generations.

Technical assistance appears to be especially
needed for forested ranges in non-Federal ownership.
A 1974 U.S. Department of Agriculture report recog-
nized, “Though the mechanism appears to be avail-
able, the forest-range assistance program is not as
fully operational as it should be.”62 Recommenda-
tions to improve the program include “Federal
agency assignments and responsibilities in range mat-
ters need to be more closely defined and clarified,
especially on State and private lands with noncom-
mercial forest types. State agency commitment to
sound grazing practices in the woodlands must be
generated. Funds and personnel knowledgeable about
proper livestock grazing in the forest types must be
made available to the agencies so the landowner will
be assured of sound technical assistance in accord-
ance with his needs.”

Significant opportunities for technical assistance to
private landowners exist, especially in the West,
where Federal, State-owned, and private lands are
intermingled, and where policies and practices ap-
plied on one ownership may greatly influence the
productivity, use, and management of lands of other
ownerships. The use of all appropriate educational
methods, including demonstration of range manage-
ment technology, is needed to promote reasonable
returns on investments of landowners. Good range-
land management requires cooperation among all
rangeland users.

Financing Range Management
and Range Development

In addition to additional technical assistance, meet-
ing the demand for range grazing will require consid-
erable investment in range improvements and the
maintenance of a higher livestock inventory on farms
and ranches. Management and production costs will,
therefore, be higher and additional financing will be
needed.

62U.S. Department of Agriculture, Interagency Work Group,

1974, op cit.

19]

A critical factor in the production picture is that
grazing systems must be implemented and range
improvements must be in place from 5 to 10 years
before they will become effective in increasing live-
stock production. In order to finance needed improve-
ments, the rancher and farmer must have access to
financing that can be adjusted to the expected timing
of benefits or returns. Some credit agencies do offer
long-term, low-interest loans; however, investment
capital for range improvements still remains scarce
and is often limited to the larger operators with con-
siderable equity.

Research and Technology Transfer
Research Needs

No comprehensive estimate of the total research
effort is available. However, in 1975, there were 27
scientist-years (SY) of range research effort expended
at State Agricultural Experiment Stations, Forestry
Schools, and the Forest Service to meet the needs of
the Forest Service.®3.64 An increase of nearly three
times, to 75 scientist-years, has been projected for
1985 to meet minimum Forest Service range man-
agement technology goals established under the 1975
Resources Planning Act Program for National Forest
rangelands and its State and Private Forestry obliga-
tions. Substantially more research effort is required
to provide the technology needed to meet range man-
agement goals of the Bureau of Land Management,
other Federal agencies, and the non-Federal land-
owners.

Range research in recent years has turned from the
single purpose range livestock grazing systems ap-
proach to the ecosystem approach; that is, research
is based on understanding the interrelationships of
multiresource productivity and use. Responding to
needs of multiple use management, increased effort
has also been devoted to the study of interactions and
compatibilities of forage production and livestock
grazing on wildlife and fisheries habitat, watershed,
recreation, and timber supply.

Ecosystem analysis. — Understanding the structure
of biological systems and how they function is basic
to the wise management of those systems. Intensifica-
tion of research into the structure and functioning of

63 National program of research for forests and associated range-
lands. Prepared by a Joint Task Force of U.S. Department of
Agriculture and National Association of State Universities and
Land Grant Colleges, 40 p., August, 1978.

64The cost of an average SY in 1975 was $70,000. The cost
included all technical and clerical support, together with facility,
administrative, and other operational costs needed to support one
scientist for | year.

192

range ecosystems offers solutions to many concerns
such as energy flows, water availability, nutrient
cycling through range ecosystems, the interactions
among the plants and animals, and their relationship
to the physical environment. Such knowledge is
needed if the desired output of goods and services will
be achieved at a management level that will sustain or
enhance the ecosystem structure and function.

Increased concern about preservation of plant and
animal species and the use of pesticides focuses atten-
tion on the need for improved understanding of eco-
system function. Research is urgently needed to
determine habitat requirements and management
strategies necessary for preservation and maintenance
of endangered species, and to establish guidelines for
ecosystem protection and management that will pro-
vide the optimum mix of plants and animals.

Range resource inventory. — As of 1979, there was
no national system of range resource identification
and classification that is consistent among agencies
responsible for inventory, administration, research,
and providing technical assistance and education
concerning the Nation’s ranges. Many classification
systems are currently in use. The resulting array of
systems fosters duplication of effort, but perhaps
even more importantly, the inventories and data
obtained often are not comparable, seriously restrict-
ing their usefulness. Technical research is urgently
needed to develop a universally acceptable multi-
resource identification and classification system.

Resource improvement. — Major gains can be real-
ized from research aimed at better approaches to
rehabilitating deteriorated rangelands. Some ranges
have been depleted by attempts to cultivate them, by
past mismanagement of livestock, by encroachment
of undesirable shrubs and trees, and by rodents,
insects, and diseases. Past improvement practices
generally included mechanical or chemical treatments
to control undesirable plant species followed by seed-
ing with desirable forage species. Increased forage
production and/or nutritive value was the objective
but treatment impacts on other range uses and values
were underestimated or undetermined. A more posi-
tive ecosystem approach is needed especially with
respect to harmful rodents, insects, and diseases. Pest
management systems must be developed to regulate
the harmful impacts of rodents, insects, and diseases
and also to enhance their beneficial impacts.

Restoration of range ecosystems to correspond
more closely with their ecological potential should
improve stability of all range resource values as well
as increase forase supplies. Biological control of
insect and disease pests and undesirable plants, pre-
scribed use of fire, and use of grazing livestock to

Deteriorated range can be restored. Research leading to biological controls of undesirable plants and improved varieties of grasses, forbs and
shrubs could greatly facilitate restoration efforts.

manipulate range ecosystems for the betterment of
associated resources and uses seem to have fewer un-
desirable side effects than do use of pesticides or herbi-
cides. Further testing is required to determine their
effectiveness and application. New germ plasm and
improved varieties of grasses, forbs, shrubs, and, in
particular, nitrogen-fixing plants could greatly en-
hance productivity and forage quality characteristics
of many ranges.

Many factors contribute to inefficient use of range
forage. Prominent among these are climatic fluctua-
tions and their effects on forage quality and quantity,
and inefficient digestion by herbivores. When and to
what extent forage can be used most efficiently while

maintaining ecosystem stability, and what class or
mix of herbivores can most effectively convert forage
into a desirable commodity need additional testing.
Knowledge gained through basic morphological
and physiological studies of plant species is needed to
determine how a species and the ecosystem will
respond to management alternatives, and to provide
guidelines for proper management and effective utili-
zation. Efficiency of animals in converting forage into
animal protein needs to be increased. This can be
done through additional knowledge of specific food
habits and nutritive requirements of herbivores.
Improved animal management to include such bene-
fits as control of internal and external parasites,

193

improved breeds and breeding, and higher birth rates
shows promise for improving efficiency of forage
conversion but requires further study.

Coordination with other uses. — Range ecosystems
are capable of producing a variety of products.
Expanded research efforts are needed to improve our
knowledge and understanding of multiresource use
interactions. Examples include the compatibilities of
livestock grazing with goals for water quality, soil
stability, water yield, timber supply, recreation, wild-
life, and protection and management of fish habitat
on mountain meadow and other riparian ecosystems.
The impacts and trade-offs among resources must be
understood, particularly in arid and semiarid eco-
systems. On forested range, the interrelations of for-
age values and other resources with silvicultural
requirements must be fully understood.

Social and economic aspects of resources use. —
Research efforts are needed to identify and quantify
the managerial alternatives for range grazing in rela-
tion to local, regional, and national socioeconomic
needs. Only through understanding of resource inter-
actions can guidelines be developed to assure eco-
system integrity and economic feasibility. Facts and
analyses necessary for formulation and guidance of
range policies and programs are essential to this
range assessment. Current and reliable information
for local area planning that is capable of aggregation
to regional and national levels, is not now available.
A social science approach, parallel to the ecosystem
concept which is now providing useful biological
range information, is urgently needed. Continued
emphasis on developing a systems approach to range
assessment must link land supply capability and cost
with demand in surfacing alternative ways to meet
resource goals at the national level.®

Much needs to be learned about the use of range
along with pasture and crop residues in the produc-
tion of red meat without dependence upon grain for
finishing. Much low-producing cropland could be
used to extend the grazing season so that animal
gains could be maintained until acceptable meat
grades can be produced from grazing roughage alone.
This might decrease the expenditure of fossil fuels
and provide red meat at a moderate cost so that peo-
ple of low and medium incomes would be better able
to consume meat. The political and economic conse-
quences and constraints for meeting future demands
for livestock roughage need evaluation.

There is a special need to integrate biological and
socio-economic research efforts related to long- and

65 Rummell, Robert S. A systems approach to range assessment.
Proceedings: Soc. Amer. For. Natl. Conv., Albuquerque, New
Mex., p. 120-124, Oct. 2-6, 1977.

194

short-term consequences of climatic extremes. Efforts
are needed to devise management strategies that can
be responsive to regional fluctuations in forage
resources. Skold®® has suggested that range resource
can be viewed as a “renewable flow resource with
variable annual supplies.” Evaluation is needed of
“the costs of permitting deficit supplies of range out-
puts to occur against the cost of providing adequate
range resource development investments to insure
that such deficits do not occur.” Such deficit costs as
forced liquidations of herds, shipping forages to
deficit areas, overgrazing of range so that rehabilita-
tion costs are incurred, and forced changes in other
land use should be considered. The costs and benefits
of supply deficits, as compared to the costs and bene-
fits of adequate supplies in the long run, need analy-
sis. This concept is consistent with the concept of
“Resource Reserve,” “. . . a national asset to be
maintained in a condition of readiness to support
future growth and culture; . . . a source of potential
agricultural production, a flexible system that can
respond to unforeseeable needs.”

Technology Transfer

The agricultural programs of the U.S. Department
of Agriculture agencies have received worldwide
recognition for the effectiveness of information deliv-
ery to landowners. However, the transfer of tech-
nology relating to management and development of
range resources has suffered by comparison for many
reasons.®8 The transfer of technology about ecology,
wildlife, and range management has been less effec-
tive than in areas dealing with management of
croplands.

Transfer of knowledge involves not only the deliv-
ery but also the presentation or packaging of infor-
mation for those who would use or deliver it. This
assessment shows that supply of range grazing in the
Plains grasslands could be increased by 1.8 times if
range condition could be raised to 60 percent of its
potential. Much of the knowledge necessary to
accomplish this improvement is available and invest-
ments needed for fences and water have largely been
made in the past. What is needed is a coordinated
effort of all Federal and State agencies responsible
for extension, technical assistance, and research to
improve the packaging and delivery of information to
potential users.

66Skold, Melvin D. Dynamics in the range livestock economy:
An evaluation of the Range Chapter in the 1980 National Assess-
ment. Communication of April I1, 1979.

67Lloyd, R. Duane, et al., 1970, op cit.

6’ The Renewable Natural Resource Foundation. A review of
forest and rangeland research policies in the U.S. September 1977.

e -e 7!

te

2 ee
*

a
LZ

Chapter 6. — Timber

This chapter contains information on: (1) Trends in
use and prices of timber and timber products with
projections of demands and prices to 2030; (2) inter-
national trade in timber products and the present and
prospective timber situation in the important trading
countries; (3) timber industries in the United States;
(4) recent changes in the area, ownership, and pro-
ductivity of domestic timber resources with projec-
tions of supplies to 2030; (5) the economic, social, and
environmental implications of rising timber prices;
and (6) opportunities for increasing and extending
timber supplies.

The material presented updates and revises that
published in 1977 in “The Nation’s Renewable Re-
sources —an Assessment, 1975,”! and is based on
material prepared for a comprehensive report, “An
Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States,
1952-2030”2 which is scheduled for publication in
1981. That report contains detailed statistics on the
extent, location, ownership, condition, and pro-
ductivity of the Nation’s commercial timberland and
timber inventory. The report also contains detailed
historical information on production, trade, con-
sumption, and prices of timber products, and pro-
jections of timber demands, supplies, and prices to
2030 along with the supporting analyses.

A number of studies were published in the 1970’s
that are useful references on the timber situation.3
These publications supplement this summary and the
comprehensive Forest Service study in process.

There are substantive differences among these
reports in content and objectives, but the major con-
clusions about the timber outlook are in general agree-
ment. For example, they showed that the Nation’s
demands for timber products are likely to grow
rapidly in the decades ahead. This outlook of rising
timber demands is consistent with the trends in recent
decades.

The Demand for Timber

Consumption of industrial roundwood products
rose from slightly less than 10 billion cubic feet a year
in the early 1950’s to the 1977 level of about 13 billion

'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. The Nation’s
renewable resources — an assessment, 1975. Forest Res. Rep. 21.
243 p. 1977.

2U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. An analysis of
the timber situation in the United States, 1952-2030. In process.

3 President’s Advisory Panel on Timber and the Environment.
Report of the Panel, 541 p. April 1973.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. The outlook
for timber in the United States. Forest Res. Rep. 20., 367 p. 1973.

Cliff, Edward P. Timber: The renewable material. Prepared for
the National Committee on Materials Policy, 151 p. August 1973.

cubic feet. Although there were increases in consump-
tion for nearly all timber products, most of the
growth was in pulp products and plywood and
veneer.

Trends in the Major
Timber Product Markets

Future trends in demands for lumber and panel
products — plywood, particleboard, hardboard, and
insulation board — will be determined in part by
trends in the major timber product markets —
housing, nonresidential construction, manufacturing,
and shipping.

Housing. —In terms of volumes consumed, resi-
dential construction has been the most important
market for most timber products. In recent years,
between one-third and one-half of the softwood
lumber and plywood, plus substantial volumes of
hardwood plywood, particleboard, and insulation
board have been used for the production, upkeep,
and improvement of housing.

Housing production in the United States — con-
ventional units and mobile homes — averaged 1.6
million units per year during the 1950’s and 1960’s,
about double the yearly output in the 1920’s and
1940’s (table 6.1, fig. 6.1). Production moved up
again in the early 1970’s and averaged 2.1 million
units a year from 1970 to 1977.

Timber products, such as lumber and plywood, are basic materials
for construction of single-family housing units.

197

Table 6.1 — Average annual production of new housing units in the United States by type of unit,
1920-1977, with projections to 2030
(Thousand units)

Total

Period damand

Total One-family

1920-29
1930-39
1940-49
1950-59
1960-69
1970-79

Conventional units

Multifamily

Mobiles

Used as
primary
residences

Not used as
primary
residences

Low projections

1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-19
2020-29

Medium projections

1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-19
2020-29

High projections

1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-19
2020-29

Sources: Housing starts, 1920-49 and 1960-62 — Forest Service estimates
derived from data in the following sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census. Housing construction statistics, 1889 to 1964. 1966, 1950 census of
housing. Vol. |, Pts 2. 1953, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nonfarm housing starts, 1889-1958. Bull. 1260, 1959; 1950-59 — U.S. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. United States census of housing, 1960. Vol.
IV, Pt. 1-A, 1962; 1963-77 — U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Housing starts. Cons. Rep. Ser. C20-78-8. 1978.

Total mobile homes, 1940-49 — Forest Service estimates derived from data in the
following sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1950

These shifts in housing production reflect changes
in demand associated with household formations, the
replacement of units lost from the housing stock, and
the maintenance of an inventory of vacant units. Anal-
yses of projections of these factors indicate another
rise in housing demand in the early 1980’s —the
medium projection averages nearly 2.6 million hous-
ing units annually for the decade. Housing demand
drops in the 1990's, a reflection of the decline in birth
rates in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. After the
1990’s, demand will increasingly depend on popula-
tion growth. Asa result, demand is likely to rise in the
decade after 2000, then decline slowly through the
remainder of projection period.

198

census of housing. Vol. |, Pt. 1, 1953; 1950-59 — U.S. Department of Commerce,
Business and Defense Services Administration. Construction review. 7(3). 1961,
and Mobile Home/Recreational Dealer Magazine. Market study, 1967-1968. 1969;
1960-63 — U.S. Department of Commerce, Business and Defense Services
Administration. Construction review. 12(8). 1966; 1964-77 — U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing starts. Cons. Rep. Ser. C20-78-8. 1978.

Mobiles used as primary residences, Forest Service estimates derived from data
in the following source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
United States census of housing, 1960. Vol. IV, Pt. 1-A. 1962.

Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

The type of housing units demanded — single-
family, multifamily, mobile homes—is of major
importance in projecting demands for timber prod-
ucts because of large differences in average per unit
use.

Over the last 50 years, about 70 percent of all hous-
ing units produced have been of the single-family
type. However, there has been wide variation in the
mix of housing types produced. Major booms in the
relative importance of multifamily housing occurred
in the 1920’s and early 1970’s. Production reached a
peak of over | million units in 1972 — about 35 per-
cent of total housing production — before falling to
less than 300,000 units in 1975. In the late 1950’s, the

Figure 6.1

New Housing Unit Production by Type of Unit, 1920-78, with Projections

(Medium Level) to 2030

Thou. Units
3,000
2,500
iy
i
0 i i
2,00 < Mobiles |:
it h .
oe i)
ee a hei
a ENR RG Ge
i N/ v Vl
i : :
1,000 i
oN
j » Multifamily
| J\
500 j \ 1A
i , 7 One-Family
e i \
\
NY
0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

See o ne
Meceousne gene eke)

waaceert?

Paare
ereenee™ Te

80 Ocoee,
we oes eeae,

G
eo ceto ee

One-Family

1SSON 199017) 200072010; 2020." 2030

mobile home emerged as a significant source of new
housing units. Its share of total demand grew to over
21 percent in 1972 before dropping to 12 percent in
1977.

Single-family houses are typically occupied by
husband-wife households with heads in the middle
age classes. Over 85 percent of all such households
with heads between ages 35 and 54 lived in single-
family housing in 1976. Income also influences hous-
ing type. In 1976 nearly 80 percent of all married
couples with incomes over $20,000 lived in single-
family houses. Occupancy of multifamily units and
mobile homes has been the highest among the
younger age classes and persons over 65. Households
headed by these age classes are generally smaller and
are likely to have somewhat smaller incomes.

Because of prospective shifts in the age distribution
of the population, and the associated changes in fam-
ily type and income, the medium projection of
demand for single-family units averages nearly 1.7
million units a year in the 1980's (table 6.1, fig. 6.1).
In the following decades, there is a slow decline to
about 1.2 million units a year in the 2020-2029

decade. Multifamily demand is projected to move up
moderately in the early 1980’s to 570,000 units a year,
about 25 percent of conventional housing produc-
tion, before declining again in the late 1980’s and
1990’s. After the mid-1990’s, the outlook changes and
multifamily units again become more important as
the second generation effects of the post-World War
II “baby boom” are felt. Demand for mobile units
remains relatively constant at 300-340,000 units a
year through the projection period. Most of these
units will be produced for primary residential use and
are expected to become larger and more houselike.
In addition to the timber products consumed in
production of new residential units, substantial
volumes are used annually for the upkeep and
improvement of existing units. Between 1960 and
1977, the years for which reliable data are available,
expenditures for upkeep and improvements increased
moderately from about $15 billion to $20 billion
(1972 dollars). For the purposes of this study, it was
assumed that expenditures would grow in the projec-
tion period at about the same rate as the housing
inventory. Under this assumption, the medium pro-

199

jection of annual expenditures rises to about $36 bil-
lion in 2030. This results in a small increase in average
annual expenditures per household.

New nonresidential construction. — About 10 per-
cent of the lumber, plywood, and building board used
each year goes into new nonresidential construction.
This diverse market includes: (1) Commercial build-
ings (private offices, stores, warehouses, garages, and
restaurants); (2) other buildings (industrial, religious,
educational, hospital, and institutional buildings);
(3) public utilities (including sewer and water sys-
tems); (4) highways; and (5) all other (military, con-
servation, and development projects, and construc-
tion not included in other categories). The only
common unit for such a heterogeneous group is
expenditures measuring the dollar value of construc-
tion put in place.

Expenditures for the various classes of construc-
tion have fluctuated rather widely in response to
changing economic conditions. However, the long-
run trend for all types combined has been strongly
upward, reaching a level near $75 billion (1972 dol-
lars) in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. There has
been a fairly close relationship between changes in
expenditures for the major classes of nonresidential
constructions and changes in the gross national pro-
duct. Projections based on these relationships and the
assumed growth in gross national product show sub-
stantial increases for each class of construction
between 1976 and 2030, ranging from around 2.1
times for highways to around 3.9 times for commer-
cial buildings.

Total projected expenditures for new nonresiden-
tial construction rise from late 1960’s/early 1970's
level of around $75 billion (1972 dollars) to $165.7
billion in 2030 (medium projection). The rates of
growth underlying this projection decline throughout
the projection period. There is also a decline in new
nonresidential construction expenditures as a percent-
age of gross national product. This is consistent with
trends since the late 1960’s and with estimates that the
service industries will account for a growing share of
the Nation’s gross national product in the future.

Manufacturing. — Almost a tenth of the lumber,
veneer, and plywood and nearly 40 percent of the
hardboard and particleboard consumed in the United
States in 1976 was used in the manufacture of a
wide range of products such as household furniture,
consumer goods, and commercial and industrial
equipment.

Shipments of manufactured products increased
substantially between 1948 and 1976. During this
period there was close correlation between changes in
the value of shipments of certain groups of products

200

and changes in gross national product and other meas-
ures of economic growth.

Projections to 2030 based on these past relations,
and the assumed growth in economic activity and
income, range from over a threefold increase for com-
mercial and institutional furniture to a rise of about
2.3 times for products other than furniture. As in the
case of nonresidential construction, the rates of
increase in value of shipments for all groups of prod-
ucts, including household furniture, drop significantly
over the projection period.

Shipping. —In 1976, about 16 percent of the
lumber and 4 percent of the plywood consumed was
used in the production of wood pallets, container
manufacture, and for dunnage, blocking, and brac-
ing. More than 70 percent of the lumber and over
one-half of the plywood consumed in shipping was
used for pallets.

In the 1950’s, 1960’s, and the first half of the 1970's,
pallet production rose rapidly as new methods of
materials handling were introduced and as facilities

Timber products are used in a wide range of manufactured goods
such as furniture, sporting goods, boats and signs and displays.

geared to the use of pallets were constructed. During
this period pallet output and manufacturing produc-
tion were closely correlated. Projections based on this
relationship, and assumed growth in the value of
manufacturing shipments as the gross national prod-
uct rises, indicate continuing large demand for
pallets. The medium projection increases to 600 mil-
lion pallets by 2030, about triple 1976 production.

Although the increase in terms of numbers of
pallets is large, the rates of growth drop rapidly from
an average of 7.3 percent in the 1960’s to 2.0 percent
in the 1990’s and 1.1 percent in the decade before
2030. Pallet output per dollar of manufacturing ship-
ments rises slowly to about the year 2000 and subse-
quently declines. Such a falloff means that growth in
pallet demand for use in new materials handling sys-
tems gradually ends, and that expansion thereafter
depends to a large degree on growth in industrial and
agricultural production.

Markets for wood containers showed modest
growth in the 1960’s. However, they declined in the
1970’s in response to displacement by fiber and plas-
tic containers, metal and fiber barrels and pails, and
multiwall bags. Based on past relations and antici-
pated trends in manufacturing and agricultural
production, continued modest declines have been
projected.

In the past three decades, use of lumber for dun-
nage, blocking, and bracing in railroad cars, trucks,
and ships has increased about 0.5 percent per year to
an estimated 860 million board feet. This relatively
modest growth, in a period of rapid increases in
shipment of goods of all kinds, apparently reflects
rising use of palletized, containerized, and bulk ship-
ment systems. Growth in such systems is expected to
continue. Consequently, demand for lumber for dun-
nage, blocking, and bracing has been projected to
continue to rise during the projection period, but only
at a rate of about 0.2 percent per year.

Trends in Unit Use

The projected level of activity in the major markets
discussed above is only one of the determinants of
future demands for lumber, plywood, and other panel
products. Also important are changes in unit use, 1.e.,
the volume of product used per dwelling unit, per
pallet, per dollar of expenditure, or other measure of
market activity.

Changes in timber product prices relative to the
general price level and to competing materials have
had important impacts on unit use. In projecting
future trends, changes in the prices of timber prod-
ucts relative to the general price level from the 1950’s
through the early 1970’s —the period during which

the basic data on unit use were collected+ — were
assumed to continue through the projection period:

Assumed annual rate of change
in relative prices — base level projections

Product
Lumber
Softwood 0.7
Hardwood 0.7
Plywood
Softwood 0.0
Hardwood 0.0
Paper and board 0.0

Only lumber prices increased in the base period.
There were no clearly defined upward or downward
trends for most other products and it was assumed
that the relative prices would remain constant until
2030.

These expectations on future prices will be realized
only if the supplies of timber (stumpage) are adequate
to meet the projected demands for timber products.
The base level projections of timber supplies pre-
sented in a following section indicate that if timber
owners continue to respond to stumpage price and
inventory changes and manage their timberlands
much as they have in the recent past, timber supplies
will not be large enough to meet the projected
demands and especially for softwood sawtimber prod-
ucts. Thus, unless action is taken to raise timber
growth and improve timber utilization, the increase
in timber product prices will be higher than assumed
and the associated projections of demands lower.

In response to the varying rates of price change and
other forces, there have been widely divergent trends
in unit use of the major timber products in the last
two decades. The unit use of lumber has declined in
most end uses, especially in those, such as housing,
where there has been extensive displacement by panel
products. In contrast, plywood, hardboard, and par-
ticleboard consumption per unit has been rising in
most end uses.

4The trends shown by these data reflect the effects of price
changes in the period in which they were collected. A projection of
these “‘base level” trends assumes a continuation of similar price
changes in the future. Prices are measured in constant 1967 dollars
and are net of inflation or deflation.

201

£5

Tha

Demand for lumber is projected to grow rapidly in the 1980’s, largely in response to rising demands for new housing and pallets.

In general, it has been assumed that recent trends
in unit use would continue. For some end use
markets, however, such trends have been modified by
a judgment evaluation of the various factors likely to
affect future changes. For example, the rate of decline
in the unit use of lumber in housing in the 1940’s and
1960’s has been sharply reduced because nearly all of
the potential displacement by panel products has
already taken place. As another illustration, the
expected increases in the cost of fossil fuels, and the
associated increases in the costs of many materials
which compete with wood, such as steel, plastics, and
aluminum, have been taken into account. Such
increases generally improve the cost position of wood

202

relative to competing materials, and result in higher
levels of per unit use of wood products.

Projected Demand for Lumber
and Panel Products

Based on the projections and assumptions dis-
cussed, demands for lumber and panel products are
projected to rise substantially in the next 50 years in
all the major end use areas (tables 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4).
In terms of volume, the largest increase for lumber is
in shipping, and for plywood in nonresidential con-
struction. The largest increase for the other panel
products — insulation board, hardboard, and particle-
board — is in manufacturing.

In addition to the major end uses discussed above,
an estimated 4.8 billion board feet of lumber, 4.9 bil-
lion square feet (3/8-inch basis) of plywood, and 3.2
billion square feet (3/8-inch basis) of other wood-
based panel products were used in 1976 for other
purposes. These included upkeep and improvement
of nonresidential structures; roof supports and other
construction in mines; made-at-home products such
as furniture, boats, and picnic tables; and made-on-
the-job products such as advertising and display
structures.

There are no historical data on the consumption of
timber products in these various uses. Accordingly,
use for these purposes in 1962, 1970, and 1976 was
estimated by subtracting volumes of timber products
consumed in the specific end uses discussed above
from the estimated total consumption of each prod-
uct. These residuals probably include some lumber,
plywood, and other panel products which properly
belong in the construction, manufacturing, or ship-
ping sectors. The “other use” categories also include
any Statistical discrepancies associated with the esti-
mates of production, imports, and exports used in
estimating total consumption.

Because of the lack of a statistical base for project-
ing these residuals, it was assumed that use for these
purposes would rise in line with projected demands in
the other markets, except new housing. New housing
was excluded because its demand is so strongly influ-
enced by the age distribution of the population.

Lumber.— Lumber consumption in all uses in
1976 was 42.7 billion board feet, a volume about 10
percent above the average of the 1950’s and 1960’s.
Projected demand for lumber with base level price
trends shows a rather steep rise to a 1990 level of 58.0
billion board feet (table 6.2). This growth is attribut-
able largely to the rise in demands for new housing
and for pallets. After 1990, and primarily because of
the leveling off and subsequent decline in housing,
projected demand increases more slowly to 67.3 bil-
lion board feet in 2030.

In recent decades, softwood species have composed
around four-fifths of the lumber consumed. How-
ever, over the projection period, an increase in
the proportion of hardwoods is expected because of
the more rapid relative growth in uses such as ship-
ping (pallets), manufacturing, and nonresidential
construction (railroad ties) where hardwoods are
predominant.

The alternative assumptions on population and
economic growth discussed in the assumptions chap-
ter have substantial impacts on the demand for
lumber in all end uses (table 6.2). In 2030, projected
total demand at base level price trends ranges from

59.8 billion board feet for the low projection to 77.8
billion board feet for the high projection.

Plywood. — Plywood consumption in 1976 was
20.8 billion square feet (3/8-inch basis) — more than
twice the volume consumed in 1960 and about five
times that of 1950. With base level price trends, the
medium projection of demand rises to 34.1 billion
square feet in 2030 (table 6.3). This projection is
about double average consumption in the early
1970’s. As in the case of lumber, the differing assump-
tions on growth in population and economic activity
have substantial impacts on demand, inducing a
range of about 9 billion square feet between the high
and low projections.

Since the late 1950’s, softwood plywood has com-
prised about four-fifths of the total plywood con-
sumption. Analysis of prospective growth in demand
by major uses indicates that this percentage is likely
to remain about the same through the projection
period.

Board. — Board consumption, including insulation
board, hardboard, and particleboard, reached 13.5
billion square feet (3/8-inch basis) in 1976 — about
four times the volume consumed in 1950.. Particle-
board (including medium-density fiberboards) ac-
counted for much of the increase, with consumption
rising from less than 50 million square feet in 1950 to
6.9 billion in 1976. Hardboard use increased fivefold.
Although consumption of insulation board has not
shown comparable growth, this product still ac-
counted for a third of the board consumed in 1976.

Projections of demand for board at base level price
trends reaches 37.3 billion square feet (medium level)
by 2030 —2.8 times the volume consumed in 1976
(table 6.4). Particleboard and hardboard are expected
to continue to show the largest increases. Much of the
particleboard growth is expected to be in structural
panels. Under the alternative assumptions on growth
in population and economic activity, projected total
demands in 2030 range from about 32.3 to 43.2 bil-
lion square feet.

Projected Demand for Pulpwood

Since 1920, pulpwood consumption in U.S. mills
has increased more than 12 times, rising from 6.1
million cords to 77.6 million cords> in 1977. As a
result of this growth and an increase in export
demand, about one-third of the timber harvested
from domestic forests is used as pulpwood.

5 This included 45.7 million cords of roundwood and 31.8 mil-
lion cords of chips and sawdust obtained from slabs, edgings,
veneer cores, and other byproducts of primary manufacturing
plants.

203

Table 6.2 — Lumber consumption in the United States, by species group and major end use
1962, 1970, and 1976, with projections (base level) to 2030

By species group

Per
Year capita New
average | SOftwoods | Hardwoods housing

Million
board
feet

37,300

39,500
42,700

Million
board
feet

30,800

32,100
36,200

Million
board
feet

6,500

7,300
6,500

feet
1962

Million
board

13,940
12,270
16,555

By end use

Residential New non- vee All
upkeep and residential factunin Shipping | other
improvements | construction’ 9 uses?

Million
board

Million
board

Million
board

Million
board

Million
board

feet feet feet feet feet
4,400 4,200 4,240 4,340 6,180
4,690 4,700 4,670 5,720 7,450

5,690 4,470 4,300 6,900 4,785

Low projections?

Medium projections?

High projections?

‘In addition to new construction, includes railroad ties laid as replacements in
existing track.

?Includes upkeep and improvement of nonresidential buildings and structures;
made-at-home projects, such as furniture, boats, and picnic tables; made-on-the-
job items, such as advertising and display structures; and a wide variety of
miscellaneous products and uses.

Demand for pulpwood is a derived demand in the
sense that it is determined by demands for paper,
board, and other pulp products. Consumption of
paper and board has risen from about 8 million tons
in 1920 to 66.2 million tons in 1977. Per capita con-
sumption has also increased rapidly from 145 to 611
pounds.

Consumption of most major grades of paper and
board has increased substantially in recent years.
However, there have been large differences in the
rates of growth. These have resulted from such fac-
tors as changes in consumer tastes, development of
new pulp-based products, inroads of substitutes, and
varying rates of growth in major sectors of the econ-
omy. In partial recognition of these differences, the
various types and grades of paper and board have
been grouped into three categories — paper, paper-

204

3 Projections based on alternate assumptions about growth in population and
economic activity as specified in the section on basic assumptions.

Note: Data may not add to totals due to rounding.

Source: Data for 1962, 1970 and 1976 based on information published by U.S.
Departments of Agriculture and Commerce.

Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

board, and building board (insulation board and
hardboard) — that have a common relation to one or
more of the determinants of demand such as eco-
nomic activity or income.

Most paper is consumed in one form or another by
individuals, with the level of use being a function of
income. Consequently, there has been a close statisti-
cal relation between changes in per capita consump-
tion of paper and changes in per capita disposable
personal income. On the other hand, for paperboard,
which is used primarily for packaging industrial and
agricultural commodities, per capita consumption
has shown a closer relation to changes in the per
capita gross national product. Most of the growth in
the consumption of building board, which is used in
construction for such purposes as sheathing and
underlayment and in manufacturing, has been asso-
ciated with changes in those sectors of the economy.

Table 6.3 — Plywood consumption in the United States, by species group and major end use,
1962, 1970, and 1976, with projections (base level) to 2030

(%-inch basis)

| By species group _| species group

Million
square
feet

2,404

3,784
3,581

Million Million
square Square
feet feet

1962 | 11,716 9,311
1970 | 17,822 14,038
20,716 17,135

feet

improvements

Per
capita
average | Softwoods | Hardwoods oe

Million
Square

4,180
6,330
8,410

Low projections?

By end use

New non-
residential
construction

Million

Residential

upkeep and MEU

facturing

Shipping

Million Million Million | Million

Square Square Square Square | square
feet feet feet feet feet
1,030 1,690 1,870 @ 2,946
2,510 1,939 1,656 591 4,796

3,350 1,875 1,550 738 4,793

Medium projections?

High projections?

‘Includes upkeep and improvement of nonresidential buildings and structures;
mining, made-at-home projects, such as furniture and boats; made-on-the-job
items, such as advertising and display structures; and a wide variety of other
miscellaneous products and uses. Also includes shipping in 1962.

?Included in all other uses.

On the basis of past relations and trends, total
demand for paper, paperboard, and building board at
base level price trends is projected to rise to 123.4
million tons (medium level) in 2000, and to 194.4
million tons in 2030—some three times 1976 con-
sumption. Projections of per capita demand also rise,
reaching 948 pounds in 2000 and 1,296 pounds in
2030, although the rates of growth drop throughout
the projection period.

Effects of the alternative assumptions on growth in
population and gross national product are substan-
tial, with projected total demand for paper and board
ranging from a low of 157.0 toa high of 251.5 million
tons in 2030.

In addition to changes in demand for paper and
board, the amounts and kinds of fibrous materials

3Projections based on alternate assumptions about growth in population and
economic activity as specified in the section on basic assumptions.

Note: Estimates for manufacturing, shipping, and all other uses include veneer.

Sources: Data for 1962, 1970 and 1976 based on information published by U.S.
Departments of Agriculture and Commerce.

Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

used in its manufacture will strongly influence future
demand for pulpwood. Since the 1920’s, average use
of fibrous material per ton of production (all grades
of paper and board combined) has shown little varia-
tion, ranging from 0.992 to 1.092 tons.

Although there has not been much change in the
amount of fibrous materials used per ton of paper
and board produced, there have been changes in the
mix of fibers consumed. For example, since 1950 new
woodpulp has risen from roughly two-thirds to
around four-fifths of the total fibrous mix. Use of
wastepaper, on the other hand, declined from around
a third of the total fibers used in 1950 to around 19
percent in 1977. Use of other fibers dropped from
about 5 percent to less than 2 percent.

205

Table 6.4 — Board consumption in the United States, by type of board and major end use,
1962, 1970, and 1976, with projections (base level) to 2030

(%-inch basis)

By type of board
Per

board housing

average board
Million | Million
square | square

By end use

Residential New non-
upkeep and residential
improvements | construction

Million Million
Square Square

Hardboard

Million
square

Million
Square

Million
square

Million
Square

Million
square

Square

feet feet feet feet feet feet feet feet feet feet
1962} 5,590 30 3,844 930 816 2,213 7 oF 2 2
9,608 47 4,552 1,541 3,515 2,760 1,415 1,050 1,790 2,593
13,497 63 4,479 2,146 6,872 3,540 2,160 1,095 3,480 3,222

Low projections?

Medium projections?

High projections?

‘Includes upkeep and improvement of nonresidential buildings and structures; 3Projections based on alternate assumptions about growth in population and
shipping; mining, made-at-home projects, such as furniture; made-on-the-job economic activity as specified in the section on basic assumptions.
items, such as advertising and display structures; and a wide variety of other Sources: Data for 1962, 1970 and 1976 based on information published by U.S.
miscellaneous products and uses. Departments of Agriculture and Commerce, and the National Particleboard
?Not available. Association.

Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

In recent years, a number of things have developed about 50 million tons in 1977 to 131.5 million in 2030.
—concern about the environment, problems of solid | Demand for woodpulp for the manufacture of rayon,
waste disposal, and increasing competition for timber plastics, and other nonpaper products, which has
—that point to the likelihood of future growth in — declined somewhat in the recent years, is expected to
wastepaper recycling. Use of recycled fibers pertonof stabilize at about | million tons.
paper and board produced has been assumed to rise Because of offsetting trends resulting from changes
from 0.20 ton in 1977 to 0.28 ton by 2000 and to0.32 __ in pulping technology, grades of paper produced, and
ton by 2030. The latter level is about 20 percent below species of wood used, average consumption of pulp-
the current rates in Japan and the Netherlands, and _—_— wood per ton of pulp produced has not changed sig-
somewhat under the rate achieved for a time inthe __ nificantly in the past 50 years. It has been assumed
United States during World War II. Projected use of that the net effects of continuing technological devel-
new woodpulp drops from 0.81 ton in 1977 to 0.70 opments and further increases in use of high-yield
ton in 2030. Use of other fibrous materials pertonis hardwoods will cause a decline in consumption of
expected to show little change. pulpwood per ton of pulp produced, from an average

Despite the decline in use per ton, demand for of about 1.6 cords in the mid-1970’s to 1.4 cords by
woodpulp for the manufacture of paper and board 2030.
rises rapidly through the projection period from

206

Given the above projections and assumptions, the
demand for pulpwood in U.S. mills rises to 128 mil-
lion cords in 2000 with a further increase to 178 mil-
lion in 2030. These volumes are, respectively, 1.6
times and 2.3 times the 77.6 million cords consumed
in 1977. As indicated in the tabulation below, the
alternative assumptions on growth in population and
economic activity have large impacts on pulpwood
demand in the decades beyond 1980.

Total pulpwood demand
Year in U.S. mills
(Million cords)

1977 77.6
Low Medium High
Projections projections projections
2000 116.1 W277: 141.2
2030 141.7 178.4 234.0

The demand for pulpwood more than doubles by 2030 — most of
the increased demand will fall on domestic forests.

Part of the demand for pulpwood has been met by
the use of slabs, edgings, veneer cores, sawdust, and
other byproducts produced at primary manufactur-
ing plants. Between 1950 and 1977, use of these mate-
rials increased from 1.2 million cords to 31.8 million
cords. Most of the economically available supplies of
such material are currently being utilized, either for
pulp production, fuel, particleboard manufacture, or
for export. Competition for the available supplies of
byproducts is likely to intensify. As a result of this
and the projected slow growth in domestic lumber
production, followed by a decline toward the end of
the projection period, the volume of byproducts used ©
for pulpwood is expected to show little change from
current levels. However, as a proportion of total
pulpwood use, residues decline from 41 percent in
1977 to 25 percent in 2000 with a further drop to 19
percent by 2030.

Projected Demand for Other
Industrial Timber Products

As shown in the following tabulation, a variety of
other industrial roundwood products is consumed in
the United States.

Standard
unit of
Product measure 1952 1962 1970 1976
Cooperage Million.
board feet 355.3 216.0 214.7 93.9
Piling Million
linear feet 41.2 41.5 28.8 39.4
Poles Million
pieces 62S ON ato: OS
Posts Million
pieces 306.0 168.7 97.7 59.9
Mine timbers Million
cubic feet 81.0 48.4 32.1 23.6
Other® Million
cubic feet 235.2 157.6 198.8 178.9
Total other Million
industrial cubic feet 698.8 465.4 424.0 378.8

Total consumption of these products amounted to
379 million cubic feet in 1976. This was somewhat

6 Includes charcoal wood, roundwood used in the manufacture
of particleboard; poles and rails used in fencing; bolts used for
products such as shingles, wood turnings, and handles, and other
miscellaneous items such as hop poles and the wood used for the
production of chemicals.

207

below the general level of the 1960’s when estimated
consumption averaged about 500 million cubic feet
per year, and far below consumption of more than 2
billion cubic feet annually in the early 1900's.

The downward trend in consumption of miscel-
laneous industrial roundwood products which began
around 1910 appears to have bottomed out in recent
years. For this report, it was assumed that demand
for these products will rise slowly to 900 million cubic
feet by 2010 and remain at that level through 2030.
Individual products are likely to show divergent
trends as in the past. Much of the increase is expected
to come from expanding use of roundwood for struc-
tural grades of particleboard. There also may be a
significant increase in use for chemicals including the
production of methanol for fuel. However, at this
time, with the existing technology and the current
costs of petroleum and chemicals produced from
other materials, the economic potential is quite
limited.

In addition to the roundwood, some 516 million
cubic feet of plant byproducts such as sawdust, slabs,
and edgings were used in the production of charcoal,
chemicals, and various other goods in 1976. Because
of the competition from other uses and limitations on
supply, little change is expected in the future.

Fuelwood

Fuelwood consumption in 1976 was an estimated
18 million cords or 1.4 billion cubic feet. This
included approximately 330 million cubic feet of
roundwood from growing stock trees and 270 million
cubic feet of primary plant byproducts. This volume
was equivalent to about 21 million tons of dry wood.
Additionally, some 10 million tons (dry basis) of bark
was consumed for fuel in 1976.

Fuelwood cut from roundwood was used almost
entirely for domestic heating and cooking. Plant by-
products were used both for domestic purposes and
for industrial fuel, primarily at wood processing
plants.

Residential use of fuelwood. — Roundwood was
the major source of energy for the United States until
the 1880’s. Fuelwood use dropped sharply in the first
half of the present century, replaced by fossil fuels
and electricity. Difficulties in fossil fuel supply during
World War I, The Great Depression, and World War
II brought renewed interest in wood, but these epi-
sodes did not significantly change the rapid decline in
fuelwood consumption. By 1970, less than 2 percent
of all households in the United States used wood as
their primary fuel for heating and less than | percent
as their primary cooking fuel.

208

EA
ae

The use of wood for domestic heating has been rising since 1973 in
response to rapid increases in the costs of other fuels.

With the unprecedented rise in fossil fuel prices
which has occurred since 1973, an increasing number
of households (estimated at 912,000 in 1976) is using
wood as a primary source of heating.’ A much greater
number is using wood for supplementary heat or for
esthetic purposes. In 1976, 58 percent of all new
single-family homes built had one or more fireplaces,
as compared to 44 percent in 1969.8 Scattered data
indicate that the number of wood stoves, not included
in the figure for fireplaces, has also risen substan-
tially. Thus, it is assumed for this Assessment that
residential use of wood fuels, especially from round-
wood, will increase steadily from 6 million cords in
1976 to approximately 26 million cords in 2030.
However, it is conceivable that major alternative
sources of oil, such as tar sands and oil shale, and
natural gas from geopressurized hot fluids, may
become sufficiently developed before then to reverse
this trend.

Industrial and commercial uses of fuelwood. — Of
the nearly 800 million cubic feet (11 million tons, dry
basis) of wood byproducts used as fuel in 1976, about
90 percent went to produce steam heat and electricity
at wood processing plants. Additionally, pulpmills
used about 5 million tons, dry basis, of bark removed
from roundwood pulpwood and 61 million tons of
spent liquid solids for fuel.2 Wood processing plants
in the future are likely to use as fuel nearly all their

7U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Residential
energy uses. Series H-123-77. 8 p. May 1978.

8U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Current
housing reports. Series H-150-76, General housing characteristics
for the United States and Regions, 1976; Annual Housing Survey-
1976, part A. 1978.

9 American Paper Institute, Raw Materials and Energy Division,
U.S. pulp, paper and paperboard industry: estimated fuel and
energy use, | p. April 10, 1978.

bark and most of their wood byproducts not sold for
woodpulp or particleboard furnish.!° As fossil fuel
prices continue rising, some plants will bring in
nearby forest residues, or urban residues, to supple-
ment mill fuels.

Currently, a small amount of mill wood byprod-
ucts and bark is used for producing heat or steam
power at other manufacturing plants or institutional
commercial buildings outside the wood processing
industries. There is much interest in the possibility of
increasing the use of wood for such purposes —
especially as an outlet for forest residues and wood
from cull trees, thinnings, and dead trees.!! It is too
early to predict with any reliability the eventual
extent of such use.

In 1978, wood and bark provided all or part of the
fuel requirements of some 10 or 12 utility plants in the
United States.!2 In at least one case, excess power
produced at a pulpmill was used as part of a munici-
pal electricity supply. More such arrangements are
expected.!3 Plans for several new wood-using steam-
electric plants have been announced. For example, by
1978, Vermont’s Burlington Electric had converted
one coal furnace to accept wood chips. The company
converted another in 1979 and plans to construct a
new 50 megawatt plant by 1983. Nearly all wood used
in steam-electric facilities in the past has been mill
byproducts, but harvesting of timber specifically for
fuel is envisioned in some current plans.'4!> With
increasing use of sawmill and veneer mill byproducts
for pulp and particleboard furnish, or for fuels by
wood-processing plants themselves, there probably
will be few locations in the United States where suffi-
ciently large concentrations of mill residues will be
available for utility operation. A recent study indi-
cated that a 50 megawatt steam-electric plant would
require 240,000 dry tons of wood annually.'®

'0 Jamison, R. L., N. E. Methuen, and R. A. Shade. Energy from
biomass. A report of Task Force No. 5 of the Industrial Energy
Group; National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.
15 p. June 29, 1978.

'1U.S. Department of Energy, Solar energy —a status report. 55
p. June 1978.

'2U.S. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, Monthly power plant reports (F.E.R.C. Form No. 4)
Computer printout dated April 3, 1979.

'3U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Quads.
Report No. 7 on energy activities. August 1979.

'4See, for example, New England Energy Congress. Final
report, May 1979; sponsored by the New England Congressional
Caucus and Tufts University. 454 p. (Available from the New Eng-
land Energy Congress, 14 Whitfield Road, Somerville, Maine
02144.)

'SSee also, State of Washington, Department of Natural
Resources. Wood waste for energy study. Report to State of Wash-
ington, House of Representatives, Committee on Natural Re-
sources. 216 p. 1978.

The ultimate magnitude of fuelwood use by steam-
electric plants will depend on many factors, such as
price trends for coal and oil in comparison to fuel-
wood, practical aspects of developing assured long-
term fuelwood supplies, problems in collecting and
storing very large quantities of wood or bark, and
advantages or disadvantages of the various fuels in
meeting emission control standards.'? The National
Energy Act of 1978 provides for incentives toward
cogeneration and use of fuels other than oil and gas in
steam-electric facilities.'8 Because the fuelwood re-
quirements of even small steam electric plants would
be very large, the potential impact of a single such
installation on local timber supply could be great. If
many were developed, there would be major impacts
on timber resources, and especially hardwood re-
sources, over large areas. Again, however, it is too
early to make reliable projections of timber demand
for steam-electric utilities.

Plantations. — With practices similar to those used
in modern agriculture, intensively cultivated planta-
tions of fast-growing trees can produce as much as 10
tons per acre (dry basis) per year of wood, bark, and
foliage. The possibility of establishing such planta-
tions on a vast scale to provide a steady source of fuel
for steam-electric utilities, or raw material for chemi-
cal conversion to liquid fuels, recently has received
much attention from scientists and energy policy-
makers.!9. 20 Plantations of tens of thousands or
hundreds of thousands of acres might be required.
Several small-scale (1,000 acre) trials now are
planned to provide improved estimates of yields and
costs of such plantations. Large-scale application
could profoundly affect forestry in the United States;
but until more information on practical economics
becomes available, it is not possible to make mean-
ingful projections of timber demand and supply
effects.

Environmental and economic considerations. —
Fuel uses already provide outlets for large quantities
of mill byproducts and for some urban wood refuse,
thus mitigating large waste-disposal problems. Pro-
ducing fuel from logging residues, cull trees, and por-
tions of overstocked stands would, in many cases,

'6 Letter from R. L. Jamison, Director of Energy Management,
Weyerhaeuser Company, to Richard Bryant, U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Forest Service, April 10, 1978.

'7Ellis, Thomas H. Should wood be a source of commercial
power? Forest Products J. 25(10): 12-16. October 1975.

'8U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Public Affairs. The
National Energy Act. DOE information kit. 47 p. November 1978.

19 See for example: Inman, R. E. Silvicultural biomass farms,
MITRE Corp., McLean, Virginia Vol. I summary. 62 p. 1977.

20 See also: Calef, Charles E. Not out of the woods. Environment
18(7): 17-25. September 1976.

209

reduce fire hazards and improve the economic feasi-
bility of intensive silviculture. However, there could
be serious environmental and economic problems
associated with large-scale developments such as
steam-electric utility plants.2! One potential result
could be increasing competition for residuals cur-
rently used in manufacture of woodpulp and particle-
board. Another possibility is esthetic and physical
deterioration of forest sites. This problem may
become a social issue, particularly in areas where
timber harvesting has been unobtrusive heretofore. It
appears likely, therefore, that the potential impacts of
major fuelwood-consuming installations will have to
be evaluated carefully. And, the costs of delivering a
sustained, long-term wood supply to expensive instal-
lations requiring hundreds of thousands of tons of
fuel must be weighed with equal care — case-by-case.

Projected Demand for Timber

The projections of demand for timber products pre-
sented above have been in standard units of measure,
that is, board feet of lumber, square feet of plywood,
cords of pulpwood and fuelwood, and cubic feet of
other industrial roundwood products. In order to
compare demand for these products with projections
of timber supplies, these projections must be con-
verted to common units of measure — cubic feet of
roundwood and board feet of sawtimber.

Improvements in utilization. — An important fac-
tor in converting demands for timber products to
roundwood is prospective change in utilization prac-
tices. In recent decades, in response to rising stump-
age costs, there have been substantial improvements
in utilizing the timber harvested from forests. Im-
provements have involved an increasing use of slabs,
edgings, sawdust, veneer cores, shavings, and other
similar material for pulp and particleboard. Various
technological developments such as thinner saws and
automatic patching and stitching in veneer mills have
led to increased product yield per unit of wood input,
although in the lumber industry this apparently has
been offset by the use of smaller and lower quality
material and the spreading use of low-yield (lumber)
equipment such as chipping headrigs. Yields in the
pulp industry have been held down by a large rise in
the production of bleached and semi-bleached pulps
which require more wood per ton of production.

With respect to the future, it has been assumed that
there would be significant increases in timber product
yields over the projection period. These increases

21 Decker, H. V. Wood energy, just a word of caution. Guest
editorial in the Northern Logger. March. 1979.

210

under base level price trend assumptions average
about 10 percent for lumber, plywood,?? and wood-
pulp. These percentages would, of course, be larger
under the equilibrium (higher) price trend assump-
tions discussed below. The opportunities for further
improvement are discussed later.

Projected demands for roundwood.—In 1977,
U.S. consumption of timber products in terms of
roundwood volume was 13.7 billion cubic feet,
slightly below the high of 13.8 billion cubic feet
reached in 1973, but significantly above the levels of
the 1950’s and early 1960’s when consumption was
generally below 12 billion cubic feet a year.

Increases in projected roundwood demands are
substantial over the projection period (tables 6.5 and
6.6). For example, the medium projection of demand
under base level price trends reaches 22.7 billion
cubic feet in 2000, with a continuing rise to 28.3 bil-
lion cubic feet in 2030, more than double consump-
tion in 1976 and 1977. Much of the projected increase
in demand is for pulp products; consequently pulp-
wood accounts for about 45 percent of the total
demand for roundwood in 2030, compared with a
third in 1976.

Growth in roundwood consumption in the 1960’s
and 1970’s consisted entirely of timber produced from
softwood species. Consumption of hardwood round-
wood has remained at about the same level since the
late 1950's.

Projections show rather large increases for both
softwoods and hardwoods. Assuming base level price
trends, the medium projection of demand for soft-
woods is up 82 percent by 2030 —from 10.3 in 1976
to 18.7 billion cubic feet. Demand for hardwoods is
projected to more than triple, rising from 3.0 to 9.6
billion cubic feet. The faster rate of growth for hard-
woods largely reflects the projected rise in demand
for hardwood roundwood for pulp products, hard-
wood lumber for pallets and railroad ties, and hard-
wood plywood and veneer for furniture manufacture.

Demand for sawtimber products. — About three-
fourths of the roundwood consumed in 1976 came
from the sawlog portion of sawtimber-size trees.
Trends in consumption of sawtimber have been sim-
ilar to the trends for roundwood (tables 6.5 and 6.6).
The projections show continuation of this similarity.
By 2030, projected medium demands with base level
price trends total about 78.6 billion board feet for
softwoods and 30.9 billion board feet for hardwoods.

221t was assumed that yields of lumber and plywood would
increase 10 percent in each of the geographic regions used in this
report (see frontispiece). Because of differences in the average
yields in each region and projected shifts in output among regions,
the national average increase in yield is somewhat below 10
percent.

In recent decades, there have been substantial improvements in utilizing timber harvested from forests. Small inefficient mills, such as this
small sawmill, are largely things of the past.

The above projections represent total domestic
demands for roundwood and sawtimber. A part of
these demands will be met by imports. There will also
be a substantial export demand. Thus, in deriving
demands on domestic forests, it is necessary to take
into account projected trade in timber products.

Trade in Timber Products

In the early 1900’s, the United States changed from
a net exporter of timber products to a net importer,
and since that time has depended to an increasing
degree on Canada and other countries as a source of
supply. Even so, exports have been growing; and the
United States has remained an important source of
timber products for many countries, especially those
in western Europe and Japan.

Post-World War II recovery of the Japanese and
European economies, coupled with trade liberaliza-
tion and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in
the 1950’s and 1960’s, has led to a severalfold expan-
sion in the economies of industrialized countries. This

has had profound impact on trade in timber products
including that of the United States, which has in gen-
eral followed the world pattern.

Trends in Timber Product Exports

Most of the growth in timber product exports has
occurred since the early 1950’s—the volume has
increased from 0.1 billion cubic feet roundwood
equivalent?} to 1.5 billion cubic feet in 1978 (fig. 6.2).
This volume represented about 13 percent of the
roundwood produced in domestic forests.

23“Roundwood equivalent” represents the volume of logs or
other round products required to produce the woodpulp, paper,
plywood, or other processed materials imported or exported. It is
recognized that portions of imports (and exports) of products such
as woodpulp are produced from plant residues and thus do not
actually represent direct roundwood use. Roundwood equivalent
data do indicate relative volumes of traded products and provide a
measure of trade that is comparable to the estimates of demand
presented above.

211

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213

Figure 6.2.

Imports and Exports of Timber Products

Bil. Cubic Ft., Roundwood Equivalent
4.0

Imports
3.0

2.0

1.0

Lumber

0 ne Meet lt erin en los

1950 1960 1970

Exports of lumber, chiefly softwoods, have tripled
since the early 1950’s, rising from 0.1 billion cubic feet
roundwood equivalent (0.5 billion board feet) to 0.3
billion cubic feet in 1978 (1.8 billion board feet) —a
volume equal to about 5 percent of United States
production. The bulk of the increased shipments in
recent years has gone to Japan and Canada, with
smaller amounts to Europe, Latin America, and
other countries.

Most of the increased lumber exports to Japan
have originated in Alaska. These exports peaked at
about 400 million board feet in 1973. The potential
exists for increases in lumber production in the inte-
rior of Alaska, and timber harvest may be accelerated
in Southeast Alaska on lands selected by Alaskan
Natives. This could result in a further rise in softwood
lumber exports to Japan.

Exports of pulp products also grew rapidly in the
1950-78 years moving up from 50 million cubic feet to
about 0.7 billion cubic feet roundwood equivalent.
This represented about 20 percent of domestic pro-
duction. The bulk of the increase in exports of pulp

214

1980 1950

Exports

Se Lumber

1960 1970 1980

products has been in the form of pulp and linerboard
shipped to Western Europe and the Far East, princi-
pally to Japan.

Pulp chips produced from slabs and other by-
products of primary timber processing plants on the
Pacific Coast have made up an increasing part of the
shipment of pulp products to Japan since the mid-
1960’s. Small volumes of roundwood pulpwood have
also been exported to Canada. In addition, a grow-
ing, but still relatively small, trade has developed in
the export of chips from the South to Scandinavia.

Exports of products such as plywood and veneer,
poles, piling, etc., have grown; but the volumes
involved have represented a small part of United
States production.

The volume of logs exported has increased rapidly
since the early 1950’s, rising from 10 million cubic feet
to about 0.5 billion cubic feet in 1978 (3.4 billion
board feet local log scale). By far the largest part of
these exports consisted of softwood logs (3.3 billion
board feet in 1978), with 80 percent of these going to
Japan. In 1976, these softwood log exports amounted

to about 8 percent of the softwood sawtimber harvest.

In part because of devaluation of the U.S. dollar
relative to Japanese and European currencies, the
total and average value of log exports have also
increased rapidly in recent years. For example, the
total value of log exports in 1978 was $1,180 million
with an average value of $346 per thousand board
feet, log scale. Shipments during the last half of 1978
and the first half of 1979 were averaging well over
$400 per thousand board feet.

The rapid rise in the volume and value of softwood
log exports has caused a substantial amount of con-
troversy. This has been centered on the shipments
from the Pacific Northwest where about 85 percent
of the logs originate. About 70 percent of the soft-
wood log exports from this region come from private
land, nearly all from those in forest industry owner-
ship, and 30 percent from lands managed by the State
of Washington. Export of logs cut from timber on
Federal lands and State of Oregon lands is pro-
hibited, with minor exceptions, by Federal and State
laws.?4

Opponents of softwood log exports have generally
argued that if these logs were not exported, they
would be processed domestically, contributing to
employment and helping to lower domestic stumpage
and softwood end product prices. Proponents have
generally argued that little of the volume exported
under current regulations would be processed domes-
tically and that the export market contributes to
employment and improved timber management.

The effects, in Japan and the United States, of
further restrictions on softwood log exports cannot
be predicted with any certainty, they would depend in
large part on Japanese reactions. Logs from the
United States amount to about 25 percent of Japan’s
consumption of softwoods and are used primarily for
housing construction. Logs from New Zealand, the
Soviet Union, and domestic sources and lumber from
the United States and Canada are Japan’s alternative
sources of softwood construction materials. If United
States log exports were restricted, the Japanese
responses could range from relying to a greater
degree on other countries, to increasing lumber
imports from United States sources.

Timber owners in the Pacific Northwest could also
respond to restrictions on log exports in various
ways — ranging from trying to sell more logs in the
domestic market, to building additional processing
facilities, to storing the timber on the stump in the

4 Lindell, Gary R. Log export restrictions of the western States
and British Columbia. U.S. Dep. Agric. For. Serv. Gen. Tech.
Rep. PNW-63. Pacific Northwest For. and Range Exp. Sta.,
Portland, Oregon. 14 p., illus. 1978.

hope that rising timber prices would make storage
worthwhile. Timber processors in the Pacific North-
west could expand capacity and attempt to sell the
additional lumber output in the domestic or Japanese
market.

In general, the Japan-Canada-United States triangu-
lar trade in softwood logs and lumber would tend to
limit the effects of restrictions on softwood log
exports on domestic softwood lumber markets. If
Japan did purchase additional lumber from the
Pacific Northwest after restrictions on log exports,
lumber imports from Canada and production in
other United States regions would tend to increase in
response to an associated rise in prices. This, in turn,
would tend to alleviate the impact of expanded United
States lumber exports on domestic end product
prices.

A recent study?5 simulated in a quantitative way
the effects of alternative Japanese, Canadian, and
United States’ responses to a ban on softwood log
exports. This analysis showed that, in general, sucha
ban would reduce softwood lumber prices in the
United States only if Japan turned to sources outside
North America for construction materials and only if
lumber processing capacity expanded significantly on
the West Coast of the United States. The softwood
lumber price decline associated with these types of
market responses would be on the order of 2 to 3
percent. Stumpage prices would tend to fall in all
United States supply regions, with the largest drop —
on the order of 10 percent — in the Pacific Northwest.

The analysis further showed that softwood lumber
prices in the United States would rise on the order of
2 to 3 percent if the Japanese purchased lumber from
North America to replace the log imports and if pro-
cessing capacity did not expand significantly. With
these responses, stumpage prices in the Pacific North-
west would decline by roughly 10 percent and by a
larger amount in western Washington.

There has also been some controversy over the
export of hardwood logs from the eastern United
States. Although the volumes involved are small, 110
million board feet in 1978, they are largely made up
of high value and relatively scarce species and thus
have had some effects on domestic markets. For
example, export of walnut logs, principally to west-
ern Europe, has been a contributing factor in the very
large increases in walnut log and stumpage prices that
have taken place in recent years.

25 Darr, David R., R. W. Haynes, and Darius M. Adams. The
impact of the export and import of raw logs on domestic timber
supplies and prices. (In process.)

215

Trends in Timber Product Imports

Imports of timber products have followed about
the same upward trend as exports, rising from 1.5
billion cubic feet roundwood equivalent in 1950 to 3.2
billion in 1978 (fig. 6.2). The 1978 imports repre-
sented more than a fifth of the total United States
consumption of timber products.

Between 1950 and 1978, lumber imports grew from
0.5 billion cubic feet (3.4 billion board feet) to 1.6
billion cubic feet (12.2 billion board feet) —a rise that
accounted for more than half of the total expansion
in imports during this period. Nearly all of the
increase was composed of softwoods from Canada,
chiefly from British Columbia. By the mid-1970’s,
imports amounted to more than 20 percent of U.S.
softwood lumber consumption. Hardwood lumber
imports, mostly from the tropical regions of the
world and from Canada, fluctuated between 0.2 and
0.5 billion board feet per year.

Imports of woodpulp, newsprint, and other grades
of paper and board have also increased since 1950,
reaching 1.4 billion cubic feet in 1977. In the mid-
1970’s, imports of pulp products amounted to 30 per-
cent of U.S. consumption, down from 37 percent in
the early 1950’s. Nearly all of these imports have orig-
inated in Canada.

Softwood lumber imports from Canada have grown rapidly and
now account for over a fifth of U.S. consumption. There is also a
substantial export trade.

216

Although not large in terms of cubic volume,
hardwood plywood and veneer imports have grown
rapidly since 1950, rising from 5 million to 195 mil-
lion cubic feet in 1977. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and
the Philippines have been the source of nearly all the
added imports. Most of the timber used in the manu-
facture of these products, however, has originated in
tropical hardwood forests in Malaysia, Indonesia,
and the Philippines. In the mid-1970’s, imports of
hardwood veneer and plywood amounted to about 65
percent of U.S. consumption of these products.

Small volumes of logs, softwood plywood, particle-
board, and miscellaneous roundwood products such
as posts and poles also have been imported. Most of
these imports have been cross-border trade with
Canada.

Future trends in United States trade in timber prod-
ucts will largely depend on the economic availability
of timber in the major forested regions of the world,
and on the timber demand-supply price situation in
the major consuming areas. Demand in western
Europe and Japan is of particular significance in
estimating export trends. The timber situation in
Canada, the source of most imports, and to a lesser
extent in the world’s tropical hardwood areas, is of
primary importance in appraising future prospects
for imports.

Trends in World Timber Demands

Consumption of industrial timber products has
been growing rapidly in all parts of the world. In
total, it increased from 26 billion cubic feet round-
wood equivalent in 1950 to over 49 billion in 1977, a
rise of nearly 90 percent. Several studies point to
further substantial increases in demand in the decades
ahead.?¢

26 Examples of relevant studies include:

Buongiorno, Joseph, and Gerold L. Grosenick. Impact of world
economic and demographic growth on forest products consump-
tion and wood requirements. Canadian J. For. Res. 7(2): 392-399.
1977.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Development and forest resources in the Asia and Far East region.
Rome. 89 p. 1976.

_________ Development and investment in the forestry sector.
FO:COFO-78/2, Rome. 21 p. March, 1978.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. European
timber trends and prospects: 1950 to 2000. Supplement 3 to Vol.
XXIX of the Timber Bulletin for Europe. Geneva. 308 p. 1976.

Madas, Andras. World consumption of wood: Trends and prog-
noses. Akademiai Kiado, Budapest, Hungary. 130 p. 1974.

Pringle, S. L. Tropical moist forests in world demand, supply
and trade. Unasylva 28 (112-113): 106-118. 1976.

The situation in Europe. — In 1976, an estimated
11.2 billion cubic feet of industrial wood — about a
quarter of world production—was consumed in
Europe, excluding the Soviet Union. Projections of
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations and the Economic Commission for Europe?’
indicate that this upward trend is likely to continue
with the expansion of European economies. Pro-
jected demands for industrial timber products roughly
double by 2000. Most growth is for pulp and paper
products and wood-based panels. Demands for
lumber are expected to increase about as rapidly as
population growth.

Studies of the prospective European timber supply
situation indicate that timber supplies from European
forests could be expanded, and that significant im-
provements in utilization could result from increased
residue use and recycling of paper and paperboard.
However, even with the most favorable set of supply
and demand projections, Europe is expected to have
a deficit of about 10 billion cubic feet in the year
2000, and it might reach 14 billion cubic feet. This
compares with an annual deficit of 1.5 billion cubic
feet in the 1969-71 period.

With respect to the United States, the European
outlook suggests continuing increases in European
demands for pulp and paper products. In the case of
lumber and logs, it seems likely that most of the
growth will be supplied by imports from the Soviet
Union, Canada, and the world’s tropical hardwood
regions.

The timber demand-supply situation in Japan. —
The phenomenal economic growth in Japan between
1950 and 1977 resulted in a sixfold increase in indus-
trial wood consumption to 3.5 billion cubic feet
roundwood equivalent.

Although Japan is heavily forested, its timber re-
sources are limited in relation to population. In addi-
tion, Japanese forests were severely depleted by heavy
cutting during World War II. To meet rising
demands, imports of logs and other products into
Japan have increased rapidly, and in 1977 amounted
to 2.3 billion cubic feet — 66 percent of total Japanese
supplies.

For many years, Japanese imports were mainly
tropical hardwood logs used in the manufacture of
plywood; since the early 1960’s, imports of softwood
logs for the manufacture of lumber, and imports of
chips for pulp manufacture, have shown large in-

27 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and
Economic Commission for Europe. European timber trends and
prospects: 1950 to 2000. Supplement 3 to Vol. XXIX of the Timber
Bulletin for Europe, Geneva. 308 p. 1976.

creases. Most of the softwood log imports have origi-
nated in the United States and the Soviet Union.
Lumber imports, primarily softwoods from Canada
and the United States, are equal to about 10 percent
of the volume of imported logs. By far the largest part
of the pulp chip imports has come from the United
States. Canada and the United States also have sup-
plied most of the growing amounts of pulp and paper
imports.

Estimates of the Japanese Forestry Agency indi-
cate that demand for timber products will rise to 5.2
billion cubic feet by 1991, some 1.7 billion cubic feet
above consumption in 1977. Beyond the 1980’s, Jap-
anese forests are expected to be capable of supplying
an increasing share of the country’s total demands,
but imports will remain critical in supplying the coun-
try’s needs for timber products. In 1991, for example,
imports are projected to amount to 60 percent of total
consumption. Thus, even with successful implemen-
tation of domestic timber supply programs, Japan is
likely to continue to be a major importer of timber
products from North America, Siberia, and South-
east Asia during the next few decades.

Future softwood log and lumber exports from the
United States to Japan will depend in part on the
level of Japanese housing starts. During the past
decade, housing starts in Japan have generally ranged
between 1.5 and 1.7 million per year — about four
times the average in the early 1960’s. On a per capita
basis, current construction is about twice the rate of
construction in the United States. The high level of
construction reflects Japanese programs to upgrade
the housing inventory. A large part of the units built,
as much as two-thirds in recent years, has been to
replace existing units. This high replacement rate
cannot be continued for long and it seems likely that
there will be a substantial fall-off fairly early in the
projection period. A development of this kind would,
of course, reduce demands for imported softwood
logs and lumber.

In the Pacific Northwest, most of the old-growth
timber inventory on forest industry lands and on
lands managed by the State of Washington, the
sources of nearly all softwood log exports, will have
been harvested by the 1990’s. As these old-growth
stands are cut, the decline in availability of this high-
quality timber will tend to adversely affect the current
comparative advantage in the export of softwood
logs and lumber. At the present time, it is not clear
whether the Japanese would be willing to purchase
second-growth saw logs in the same quantities that
they now purchase primarily old-growth. Instead of
continuing to purchase saw logs from the United
States, Japanese importers might expand imports of

217

softwood saw logs and/or lumber from the Soviet
Union, Canada, and New Zealand, and possibly
other sources. Softwoods from domestic forests
might also contribute a larger share of supply.

The timber demand-supply situation in other coun-
tries and regions. — Although most of the United
States export trade in timber products has been with
Europe and Japan, significant exports of woodpulp,
paper and board, lumber, logs, veneer, and plywood
have gone to other countries. For example, there has
been considerable growth in softwood lumber and
paper and board exports to Canada, and paper and
board exports to Central and South America. Trade
in other timber products with other regions has been
important, but exports have shown only slow growth
or been stable over the 1960’s and 1970's.

In general, demands for timber products are rising
in these areas. However, many have substantial forest
resources. These resources, along with the develop-
ment of domestic timber processing facilities, are
likely to significantly affect the future levels of United
States exports. Plans for pulp and other types of
timber processing complexes for numerous countries
in Asia, Africa, and South America generally have a
reduction in imports as one of the goals of develop-
ment. If and when these plans come to fruition, they
could have a significant impact on world trade pat-
terns, especially for hardwood logs, lumber and ply-
wood, pulp and paper, and board.

Most of the high-quality, old-growth softwood timber on State
and forest industry lands on the Pacific Coast will be harvested by
the 1990's.

World Forest Land and Timber Resources

Future United States trade in timber products will
be influenced by the trends in demands in the major
consuming areas discussed above. Trade will also be
influenced by the supplies of timber in the timber-
producing regions of the world.

There are an estimated 7.5 billion acres of forest
land with 20 percent or more tree crown cover in the
world. Most of the hardwood forests are in Latin
America and the tropical regions of Africa and South-
east Asia. The softwood acreage is concentrated in
the Soviet Union and in North America.

The world’s forests contain an estimated 11.4 tril-
lion cubic feet of timber (table 6.7). Softwoods make
up one-third of this timber inventory. North America
and the Soviet Union contain the largest volumes of
softwood growing stock, while Latin America, Africa,
and Southeast Asia have most of the hardwood
volumes.

Table 6.7.— Forest growing stock in the world,
by area and species group

(Billion cubic feet)

Hard-

Area wood

North America 335

Latin America 3,168

Europe 191

Africa 2,130
Asia-Pacific

(except Japan) 1,129

Japan 32

Soviet Union P é 424

Source: Adapted from Pringle, S. L. Tropical moist forests in world demand,
supply and trade. Unasylva. 28 (112-113): 106-108. 1976.

In 1973, the total world harvest of industrial round-
wood was about 48 billion cubic feet, with about 60
percent of this volume coming from softwood forests
in North America, the Soviet Union, and Europe.

About 70 percent of the hardwood timber came
from the forests on North America, Asia, and Europe
—even though these areas contain only 22 percent of
the world’s hardwood growing stock inventory. Latin
America contains nearly half the total world hard-
wood resources, but accounted for less than 8 percent
of world industrial hardwood supplies in 1973.

Timber supply potential. — Hardwood forests in
many regions of the world, including the United
States, could support higher levels of harvest in the
next several decades. Most of this apparent potential
is in the tropical hardwood forests of Latin America,
Southeast Asia, and Africa.

The tropical hardwood forests are extensive and
have a large capacity for timber growing. Yet serious
problems exist which offset the capability of these
forests to continue to supply high-quality timber prod-
ucts to world markets. Much of the tropical forest
area is relatively inaccessible. Only 22 percent of the
Brazilian closed forest is considered accessible.
Hence, development of timber resources is slow and
expensive. Utilization of timber is complicated by the
great numbers of widely different species that often-
times have unknown characteristics. Such problems
of heterogeneity occur in all regions but are particu-
larly acute in Latin America. The future of tropical
forests in all regions is further complicated by the
expanding need for agricultural land to accommo-
date rapidly growing populations, and a lack of
knowledge of proper management techniques.

Softwood timber supplies, for use in domestic mar-
kets or for sale in international markets, can be aug-
mented in three ways: (1) Intensification of timber
management, (2) improved utilization, and (3) ex-
panded harvest in currently undeveloped areas. The
rising prices for timber products expected in world
markets will provide an incentive for intensification
of timber management. However, the impact on
softwood supplies probably will be minimal for two
or three decades, except in unique situations where
old-growth inventories permit an immediate increase
in harvest.

Improved utilization can have a more immediate
effect on supplies. The largest part of the expected
increase in world demands for industrial timber
products is for pulp and particleboard. This should
enhance the possibility of expanded management and
utilization since smaller trees, lower quality logs, and
manufacturing byproducts can be more easily used
for such products than for those manufactured
directly from solid wood.

Conservation of wood fiber through expanded
recycling of paper and paperboard in the industrial-
ized countries of the world offers another possibility
for meeting a significant portion of growing world
demands for pulp products. In the United States,
about 19 percent of paper and paperboard is recycled
and in Japan, 40 percent.

Possibilities for expanded output of softwood
lumber and plywood outside the United States in the
years immediately ahead seem to be limited to cur-
rently undeveloped resources in the northern parts of
Canada and Siberia. Both Canada and the Soviet
Union have indicated a desire to develop their forest
resources. Unused timber in both countries is under
government control, and hence government policies
— as well as trends in prices, markets, and availability

of investment capital — will be significant factors in
determining how rapidly expansion of timber output
takes place.

The softwood timber resources of Canada are of
special significance to the United States, for both
geographic and economic ties make Canada a pri-
mary timber supply region for this country. Canada is
the leading timber-exporting nation in the world,
with three-fourths of its exports going to the United
States.

The 1976 Canadian timber cut of about 5.0 billion
cubic feet (4.6 billion softwoods) was well below the
calculated gross physical annual allowable cut of 9.8
billion cubic feet (7.3 billion softwoods). Intensifica-
tion of timber management and improved utilization
could expand these allowable cuts significantly, but
the ultimate potential is unknown. The present
unused allowable cut, for the most part, is in the
undeveloped northern parts of the Canadian Prov-
inces where utilization will involve high development
costs.

Only a portion of the unused gross physical annual
allowable cut, about 3 billion cubic feet, was consid-
ered economically accessible in 1976. The rising equi-
librium prices projected in this analysis will help to
make more of the Canadian softwood resource eco-
nomically available and will enhance the rationale for
more intensive management and improved utilization
in the accessible areas.

In 1976 Canada had the timber resources to
expand timber output. In terms of products, a recent
study?8 showed that the production of softwood
lumber could be increased to about 21 billion board
feet on a sustained basis, some 7.5 billion board feet
above output in 1973-74. If economic accessibility is
taken into account, the production potential would
decline to about 18 billion board feet. Over one-half
of the potential for increased Canadian softwood
lumber production existed in British Columbia, espe-
cially in the interior of the Province.

For pulp production, the combined potential of
economically assessible hardwoods and softwoods
indicated that these reserves could support increased
output of 6.2 million tons. Physical reserves are
available to support about 10 million tons of addi-
tional production.

There is, of course, a lot of uncertainty associated
with the above estimates. At best, they are judgments
based on the information available, and as such are

28 Reed, F. L. C. and Associates Ltd. Canada’s reserve timber
supply, prepared for the Department of Industry, Trade and
Commerce, Ottawa, Ontario. 1974. F. L. C. Reed and Associates
Ltd., Forest Management in Canada, Vol. I. Prepared for the
Forest Management Institute of the Canadian Forestry Service,
Ottawa, Ontario. 1977.

219

subject to change as market conditions and informa-
tion changes. They do reflect, however, the reality
that the timber resource of Canada can support larger
harvests and, further, that the resource is not unlim-
ited. Since the 1950’s, Canada has been able to
rapidly expand output of all timber products through
development of previously untapped resources. Fur-
ther expansion in this manner is likely to be increas-
ingly constrained in the 1980’s. It seems evident that
expansion of production of pulp, paper, and soft-
wood lumber in Canada will depend more on intensi-
fication of timber management and improvement of
utilization practices than an expansion at the exten-
sive margins of timber reserves.

Prospective Trends
in U.S. Timber Product Trade

As described above, the available data on future
demands in the major consuming countries and
regions of the world suggest continuing and rapid
growth for pulp and paper products. In view of the
competitive position of the United States in pro-
ducing these products, exports are likely to rise.

Demands for solid wood products in most consum-
ing areas are also expected to grow although there
may be some decline in Japan for softwood logs and
lumber as housing construction drops off. The pro-
jected timber supply situation on the Pacific Coast
suggests a lessening of the U.S. comparative advan-
tage in old-growth logs and clear lumber of large
dimensions. As a result of this and the market out-
look in Japan, exports of logs, lumber, and plywood
after 1990 are expected to decline.

Effective trade promotion in major consuming
areas, or action to increase timber supplies, could
greatly change the outlook for exports. As indicated
in other places in this chapter, domestic forests have
the potential under intensive management of meeting
prospective growth in domestic demands while at the
same time supporting large increases in exports.

The United States will continue to be a major
importer of timber products. This pattern is expected
because of the unique nature of some products and
limitations on domestic timber supplies. The largest
increases in imports are expected in softwood lumber
and pulp and paper products from Canada. It also
seems likely that the United States will continue to
draw on tropical forests for hardwood plywood and
veneer for some time to come, in spite of the uncer-
tainties surrounding the long-term outlook.

The projected export-import levels for the United
States in terms of roundwood equivalent are summar-
ized in tables 6.5 and 6.6. The data in these tables

220

show that imports of timber products are likely to
continue to grow until 2000 and exceed exports by
a substantial margin through the projection period.
Although there is some growth in net imports to 2020,
it is clear that the volume of timber products avail-
able for use beyond 2000 will be increasingly deter-
mined by the domestic timber resource situation.

Demand for Timber from
Domestic Forests

Although improvements in utilization and the
expected increase in net imports can meet part of the
projected growth in demand for timber products,
these potentials are relatively small in comparison to
total growth in demand at something close to the
increase in prices in the period used as the projection
base. Thus, the United States must look to its domes-
tic timber resources as the best hope of meeting future
demands for timber products.

Production of softwood roundwood from domestic
forests showed little change in the 1950’s. A fairly fast
increase was evident in the 1960’s and 1970's (table
6.5). Production of softwood sawtimber from U.S.
forests followed similar trends. In contrast, produc-
tion of hardwoods— roundwood and sawtimber —
remained about the same from 1962 through 1976
(table 6.6).

The primary timber processing industries include plants manufac-
turing lumber, plywood, wood pulp and a wide variety of other
products such as pallets, containers, fence posts and utility poles.

Projected demands for timber from domestic
forests (medium level and base level price trends) rise
from 12.1 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 25.1 billion
cubic feet by 2030—an increase of 107 percent.
Associated demands for sawtimber rise from 60.7 to
102.5 billion board feet.

In volume terms the projected rise in demand on
domestic forests between 1976 and 2030 is the same
for softwood and hardwood roundwood, some 6.5
billion cubic feet. In percentage terms, however, the
projected increases are much larger for hardwoods.
For example, demands on domestic forests for hard-
wood roundwood rise some 224 percent between 1976
and 2030, compared to 71 percent for softwoods. Pro-
jected demands for hardwood and softwood saw-
timber show roughly similar trends.

Primary Timber Processing Industries

Converting these projected increases in demand
into products usable by consumers will require a large
expansion in domestic primary timber processing
industries.2? These industries include establishments
engaged in harvesting timber from the forest (log-
ging) and in manufacturing lumber, veneer and ply-
wood, wood pulp, and other products such as wood
containers, pallets, and a wide variety of turned and
shaped items.

According to the most recent Census of Manufac-
tures, some 28,000 primary timber processing estab-
lishments were operating in the United States in
1972 (table 6.8). These establishments had 633,000

29 The primary timber processing industries are composed of the
following industries as defined in the Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation Manual:

— Lumber 1. Logging camps and contractors

manufacturing: (SIC 2411)
2. Sawmills and planing mills
(SIC 242)
— Plywood and 1. Hardwood veneer and plywood
veneer (SIC 2435)
manufacturing: 2. Softwood veneer and plywood
(SIC 2436)
— Woodpulp 1. Pulpmills (SIC 2611)
manufacturing: 2. Paper mills, except building paper
integrated in a pulpmill
(SIC 2621-12)

3. Paperboard mills, integrated with
a pulpmill (SIC 2631-12)

4. Building paper and board mills,
integrated with a pulpmill
(SIC 2662-12)

— Other primary 1. Wood containers, pallets, and
timber skids (SIC 244)
manufacturing: 2. Miscellaneous solid wood

products (SIC 249)
For more complete definitions, see Executive Office of the Presi-
dent, Office of Management and Budget, Standard Industrial
Classification Manual. 615 p. 1972.

employees and produced products valued at nearly
$24.7 billion. Nearly half of the establishments were
in the logging industry, i.e., logging camps and con-
tractors. Another third were sawmills and planing
mills. Most of the remainder were classified in other
primary manufacturing. Although small in number,
the 2 percent of the establishments in the plywood
and veneer industry and the | percent in the wood-
pulp industry accounted for nearly half of the value
of shipments of all primary timber products.

Almost all of the primary timber processing estab-
lishments are located near sources of timber. More-
over, timber species, tree size, and quality strongly
influence the type and size of processing establish-
ments. For example, the predominantly softwood
forests of the South supported a little over 13,000
primary timber processing establishments, 46 percent
of the Nation’s total in 1972 (table 6.9). The majority
of these processors were comparatively small logging
contractors and sawmills and planing mills that can
efficiently harvest and process the timber produced
from the small forest ownerships characteristic of this
section of the country.

The predominantly hardwood forests of the North,
with essentially the same ownership characteristics,
supported 9,000 primary timber processing estab-
lishments, nearly a third of the total number. As in
the South, the average processing establishment was
small.

The softwood forests of the Pacific Coast where
trees are comparatively large, and to a lesser degree
those in the Rocky Mountains, provide timber for
fewer but bigger logging operations and processing
establishments. The Pacific Coast, with about 5,000
establishments or 17 percent of the total, produced
nearly a third of the value of shipments of all primary
timber processing industries in 1972.

There have been some significant changes in the
primary timber processing industries in recent dec-
ades. For example, the number of establishments has
declined from close to 35,000 in 1958 to little more
than 28,000 in 1972 (table 6.10). There also was a
small drop in employment. In contrast, the value of
shipments, measured in constant 1972 dollars, nearly
doubled, rising from $12.8 billion to 24.8 billion.

Single establishments, operating at a single geo-
graphic location, are the most common form in the
primary timber processing industries.3° This is most
evident in the lumber manufacturing industry where
91 percent of the establishments operated at one loca-

tion. This also is characteristic of establishments in

30 Ellefson, Paul V. and Michael E. Chopp. Systematic analysis
of the economic structure of the wood-based industry. Univ. Min-
nesota, College of Forestry, Dept. Forest Resources. Staff Paper
No. 3. 1978.

221

Table 6.8. — Establishments, employees and value of shipments in the primary timber processing
industries in the United States, by industry, 1972

Establishments Employees

Value of
shipments

Million

Industry

Number Percent Thousands Percent dollars Percent

Lumber manufacturing 22,686 80.0 284.1 44.9 9,703.1 39.5

Logging camps and 13,238 46.7 80.0 12.7 2,529.5 10.2

contractors

Sawmills and planing mills 9,448 33.3 204.1 32.2 7,173.6 29.3
Plywood and veneer 598 2.1 68.8 10.9 2,923.3 11.9

manufacturing
Woodpulp manufacturing 331 161.0 25.4 8,937.6 36.2
Other primary timber 4,760 119.2 18.8 3,068.7 12.4

manufacturing
Total

28,375 100.0 633.1 100.0 24,632.7

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1976.

Manufactures, 1972. Volume I. Industry Statistics. Part 1. SIC Major Groups 20-26,

Table 6.9 — Establishments, employees, and value of shipments in the primary timber processing
industries in the United States, by section and region, 1972

Section and region Establishments Employees

Value of
shipments

Million
Percent Thousands Percent dollars Percent
North:
Northeast 16 83.7 13 2,721.8 11
North Central 16 94.5 15 3,191.0 13

South:
Southeast
South Central

Total 13,221 | 46 254.8 9,589,5 39

Rocky Mountains 5
Pacific Coast:
Pacific Northwest 24
Pacific Southwest 8
Total 32

Source: See source note fable 6.8.

United States

other primary timber manufacturing industry cate-
gories. On the other hand, in the woodpulp industry
only a quarter of the establishments operated at one
location.

The legal form of organization (i.e., corporate ver-
sus noncorporate) is mixed. Only 22 percent of the
establishments in the lumber manufacturing industry
had a corporate form of organization in 1972, while

222

over nine-tenths of those in the woodpulp, plywood,
and veneer manufacturing industries were corporate
in nature. Although the importance of a corporate
form of legal organization varies by sector within the
primary timber processing industries, the bulk of
employment, value added by manufacture, and new
capital expenditures originates in corporations.

Table 6.10 — Characteristics of the primary timber processing industries in the United States, by
industry, 1958, 1963, 1967, 1972 and 1976

Industry Number of establishments Thousands of employees

Lumber manu-
facturing
Logging 12,828 13,588 16,334 13,238 71.7 73.1 70.6 80.0 71.5
Sawmills and
planing mills 16,859 13,677 11,790 9,448 282.3 247.7 219.7 204.1 207.5

Plywood and veneer
manufacturing
Hardwood veneer
and plywood? 366 25.1 21.9
Softwood veneer
and plywood? oe 43.7 45.0

Total 68. | 68.8 | 66.9

Woodpulp
manufacturing
Pulpmills 15.7
Integrated
pulpmills? cee 133.4 132.2 142.4 150.4 144.4

Other primary me —
manufacturing 4, uci S12 | 4,220 4,442 4,760 99.7 100.2 113.9 119.2 114.7

Value of shipments in millions
Current dollars 1972 dollars

nem, gi Fomine

Lumber manu-

facturing
Logging 868.3 | 1,154.7 476. 2,529.5] 4,460.8 ,093. 1,438.0] 1,740.8 | 2,529.5] 2,877.9
Sawmills and

planing mills 3,302.8 | 3,648.0 7,173.6 | 9,752.0 4,543.0] 4,772.3} 7,173.6] 6,291.6

Plywood and veneer
manufacturing .
Hardwood veneer
and plywood? 911.8 970.1 911.8 625.9
Softwood veneer
and plywood? 2,011.5] 3,164.1 2,011.5] 2,041.4

Woodpulp
manufacturing
Pulpmills 428.0 609.1 730.5 709.9} 2,055.4 539.0 758.5 861.4 709.9 | 1,326.1
Integrated
pulpmills? 3,460.9} 4,189.7 | 5,437.3] 8,227.7 | 14,202.0| 4,358.8 | 5,217.6} 6,411.9 | 8,227.7] 9,162.6

Other primary timberlaawen a
manufacturing Wb | 1,197.1 | 1] 1,434.2 | 2,078.3] 3,068.7] 4,338.0] 1,507.7 | 1,786.1} 2,450.8 | 3,068.7] 2,798.7

‘Number of establishments not available for intercensal years. product, such as paper, paperboard or building paper and board.

? Separate hardwood and softwood plywood and veneer data not available prior “Derived by dividing the value of shipments in current dollars by the Bureau of
to 1972. Labor Statistics producer price index of industrial commodities.

’Pulpmills that are directly associated with other types of manufacturing Source: See source note table 6.8.

facilities whose primary activity is not the production of woodpulp but some other

223

While the primary timber processing industries
have historically been composed of a relatively large
number of firms, a trend toward larger and fewer
firms is evident. In 1972, the four largest firms in the
pulpmills industry (SIC 2611) produced 59 percent of
the value of shipments, compared with 46 percent in
1958.3! Similar changes have occurred in the other
industries. However, the concentration of production
is still fairly limited. About one-third of the value of
shipments in the plywood and veneer industry is pro-
duced by the four largest firms. In the sawmill and
planing mill sector, the four largest firms accounted
for only 18 percent of the value of shipments.

Lumber Manufacturing

In 1972, there were nearly 23,000 establishments in
the lumber manufacturing industry (table 6.8). There
were about 284,000 people employed in the industry
that year, and the value of the products shipped was
$9.7 billion. In general, the number of establishments
and employment in the industry declined between
1958 and 1976 (table 6.10). The value of shipments
measured in constant 1972 dollars, however, rose
from $5.3 billion in 1958 to $9.2 billion in 1976.

The number of logging establishments and the
number of logging employees has changed little since
1958. Most of the change that has occurred has been
in the sawmill and planing mill sector. The number of
establishments in this sector decreased steadily from
close to 17,000 in 1958, to a little over 9,000 in 1972.
Employment dropped from 282,000 to 204,000 in
1972, but rose slightly to 208,000 in 1976. The value
of shipments in constant 1972 dollars increased fairly
rapidly, moving up from $4.2 billion in 1958 to $6.3
billion in 1976.

Over half of the Nation’s lumber manufacturing
(including logging) establishments in 1972 were in the
South (table 6.11). These accounted for less than a
third of the value of industry shipments. The Pacific
Coast, where over 60 percent of the Nation’s
softwood sawtimber is located, had just under 4,000
establishments, but they produced nearly half of the
industry’s total value of shipments. The establish-
ments on the Pacific Coast were, of course, relatively
large, averaging more than 26 employees compared
to an average of less than 10 in the North and South.

In 1976, about 36 billion board feet of lumber was
produced by sawmills. The largest part of this
volume, some 30 billion board feet, was softwoods.
About 70 percent of this came from forests in the
West, 26 percent from the South and 4 percent from

31 [bid.

224

the North. Hardwood lumber production — about
6.4 billion board feet— was nearly equally divided
between the North and South. Only a negligible
volume came from the West.

Plywood and Veneer Manufacturing

There were 598 establishments in the plywood and
veneer industry in 1972 (table 6.10). Employment was
69,000 and the value of shipments $2.9 billion. The
available data shows that both the number of estab-
lishments and number of employees in the plywood
and veneer industry have not changed much since
1958. However, there have been large increases in the
value of shipments measured in constant 1972 dol-
lars, nearly all in the softwood veneer and plywood
sector.

The 366 establishments producing hardwood ply-
wood and veneer composed about two-thirds of those
in the industry in 1972, but shipments and employ-
ment were largest in the softwood sector (table 6.10).
In 1976, the establishments producing softwood ply-
wood and veneer accounted for more than three-
quarters of the value of shipments and two-thirds of
the employment.

There were 200 hardwood plywood and veneer
establishments in the South in 1972, with product
shipments valued at $429 million (table 6.12). These
numbers represent roughly half of all establishments
and industry shipments. There were 114 plants in the
North and 52 on the Pacific Coast. The Rocky Moun-
tain region did not have hardwood plywood and
veneer plants.

The Pacific Coast had 156 or 70 percent of the
softwood plywood and veneer plants in the United
States in 1972 and accounted for 70 percent of the
value of shipments ($1.4 billion). The South had 57
plants which shipped products valued at $0.5 billion.
The remaining establishments were in the Rocky
Mountain region.

The concentration of the softwood plywood indus-
try on the Pacific Coast reflects historical dependency
on the large size, high-quality timber available from
the old-growth forests of that region. In recent
decades, technical developments have made it feasible
to utilize the relatively small-size southern pine trees.
As a result of this, lower stumpage costs, and proxim-
ity to the major plywood markets in the east, most of
the growth in the softwood plywood industry since
the mid-1960’s has been in the South.

In 1976, softwood veneer log production from the
southern pine forests was 3 billion board feet. Most
of the remaining production — 5.2 billion board feet
—came from the Douglas-fir forests of the Pacific

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225

Table 6.12. — Characteristics of the plywood and veneer industry in the United States, by section,
1972

Section

North

South

Rocky Mountains
Pacific Coast

United States

114
200 57

Source: See source note table 6.8.

Northwest. Hardwood veneer log production in 1976
amounted to 0.6 billion board feet. About two-thirds
of this came from the South.

Woodpulp Manufacturing

There were 331 pulp mills in the United States in
1972 (table 6.8). This included 60 mills that produced
market pulp and 271 mills that were integrated with
paper, paperboard, building paper, and board mills.
Employment, which included employees in the paper
and board mills, was 161,000 or 25 percent of total
employment in the primary timber processing indus-
tries. The combined value of shipments was almost $9
billion.

The softwood lumber and plywood industries are concentrated in
the West, as is most of the inventory of softwood sawtimber.

Number of Thousands of
establishments employees

Value of shipments in
millions of dollars

Softwood

501.4
104.5
1,386.6

The number of mills in the woodpulp industry in
1972 was slightly higher than in 1958 and substan-
tially above the number reported in the early 1960’s
(table 6.10). Employment has trended up to the
160,000 level of 1976. The value of shipments in con-
stant 1972 dollars has more than doubled, rising from
$4.9 billion in 1958 to $10.5 billion in 1976.

Almost one-half of woodpulp manufacturing estab-
lishments reported in 1972 were in the North, but the
average size was smaller than in the other geographic
sections (table 6.11). More than one-half of the value
shipments of the industry and nearly one-half of its
employment was in the third of the establishments
located in the South. Almost all of the remaining
establishments were in the Pacific Coast section. The
Rocky Mountain section had only three woodpulp
mills.

Most of the growth in the woodpulp industry in
recent decades has been in the South. This, in large
part, has reflected a relatively favorable timber
supply and cost situation. Pulpwood harvests (round-
wood) from the forests in this section were 32 million
cords in 1976. In addition to the roundwood, about
15 million cords of chips, largely obtained from the
byproducts of sawmills and veneer plants, were used
in the southern pulp industry in 1976. Total regional
consumption amounted to 47 million cords or 65 per-
cent of the wood consumed in United States pulp-
mills in that year.

The forests in the Pacific Coast section supplied
about one-sixth of the wood used in the woodpulp
industry in 1976. Most of this wood was chips
obtained as byproducts from sawmills and veneer
plants. The forests of the North supplied another 15
percent of the wood consumed, nearly all of it round-
wood. The remaining 3 percent came from the forests
in the Rocky Mountains.

Other Primary Timber Manufacturing

The other primary timber manufacturing industry
includes plants making pallets, skids and particle-
board; miscellaneous wood products such as lasts,
ladders, and picture frames; turned and shaped wood
products. It also includes wood preservation plants.
In 1972, there were 4,760 establishments in the indus-
try (table 6.8). Approximately 119,000 people were
employed and the value of shipments was $3 billion.

There have been slow increases in the number of
establishments and in employment in the other pri-
mary manufacturing industry in recent years (table
6.10). The value of shipments in constant 1972 dollars
has increased from $1.5 billion in 1958 to $2.8 billion
in 1976. However, growth in the value of shipments
has varied greatly among the different types of plants
on the industry. Shipments of products such as
pallets and particleboard have shown rapid increases.
Shipments of some other products have remained
about the same or have declined.

The products of the other primary manufacturing
industry are largely made from hardwoods; hence,
most plants in the industry are located in the East.
More than half of the establishments, employment,
and value of shipments was in the North in 1972 and
most of the remainder in the South (table 6.11). There
were, however, 112 establishments in the Rocky
Mountains and 716, or 15 percent of the total, on the
Pacific Coast.

Domestic Timber Resources

Nearly all of the timber consumed in the primary
processing industries comes from domestic forests.
These forests are one of the most dominant cover
types in the United States. As shown in the Forest
and Range Land chapter (table 2.1), about 737 mil-
lion acres — 33 percent of the Nation’s land area — is
classified as forest land.

Commercial Timberland

Nearly two-thirds of the forest land, or 482 million
acres, is classified as commercial, that is, forest land
capable of producing at least 20 cubic feet of indus-
trial wood per acre per year and not reserved for uses
which are not compatible with timber production.
About 25 million acres of timberland — classified as
productive reserved and deferred — meets the growth
criteria for commercial timberland but has been set
aside for parks, wilderness areas, or other uses. The
remaining 230 million acres of forest land is incapable
of producing a sustained crop of industrial wood.

These lands are valuable for grazing, watershed pro-
tection, and recreation use, however, and are dis-
cussed in other chapters of this Assessment. In this
chapter, only those acres classified as commercial
timberland are considered.

Nearly three-quarters of the commercial timber-
land is located in the humid eastern half of the United
States, where it is about equally divided between the
North and South (table 6.13).32 The commercial tim-
berland in the West is concentrated in the Pacific
Coast States of Oregon, Washington, and California,
and in the Rocky Mountain States of Montana,
Idaho, and Colorado.

There are 7 million acres of commercial timberland
in Coastal Alaska and some 8 million acres in interior
Alaska that may be classified as commercial timber-
land when forest surveys of the region are completed.

Seventy-two percent of all commercial timberland
was privately owned in 1977. The remaining 28 per-
cent was in Federal, State, and a variety of other
public holdings.

Ownership of commercial timberland by Federal,
State, or local governments reflects a variety of
forces. Much of the National Forest System was
reserved from the original Federal public domain to
provide timber and other resources to meet the coun-
try’s needs. Much of the State-owned forest land was
obtained by the States as part of land grants from the
Federal government on entry into statehood. Some
forest lands were left in Federal ownership because
they were unsuited for farming or other uses under
laws that provided for transfer to private ownership.
Still others were obtained by State or local govern-
ment as tax-delinquent lands, especially during the
1930's.

Fourteen percent of the commercial timberland is
owned by forest industry. The area in these owner-
ships has been increasing while that in other private
ownerships has declined. Moreover, industry’s stew-
ardship now extends to substantial acreages of forest
land that is under long-term lease from farmer and
other private owners.

The remaining area of commercial timberland,
some 278 million acres or 58 percent of the total, was
in farmer and other private ownerships —a diverse
group that includes housewives, doctors, lawyers, and
numerous other occupations and retirees. A substan-
tial number of these ownerships are small, some
under 10 acres. At any given time, many owners have
management objectives that are not compatible with

32 Detailed statistics on forest area and timber volumes, growth,
removals, and mortality by section, region, and State are contained
in: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Forest Statis-
tics of the U.S., 1977. 133 p. 1978.

227

Table 6.13 — Area of commercial timberland in the United States, by ownership and section,
January 1, 1977

Total, United | Total, United States See aes
North South and Great Coast!
Area tsar Plains

Ownership

Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand
acres Percent acres acres acres acres

Federal:

National Forest 88,718,3 18.4 9,201,2 11,543.5 36,476.9 31,496.7

Bureau of Land

Management 5,802.8 ae 17.9 3.1 1,668.5 4,113.3

Other Federal 4,889.3 788.6 3,572.4 176.5 351.8
State 93.415.3_ 12,832.3 2,594.7 2,235.0 5,753.3
County and municipal 6,834.1 5,605.4 727.3 76.8 424.6
Indian 6,061.8 855.6 184.9 2,849.7 2,171.6
Forest industry 68,782.2 17,658.4 36,500.1 2,095.5 12,528.2
Farmer VAST 77A 38,797.1 61,398.1 10,017.9 5,564.0
Other private 162,205.0 65,878.8 83,423.6 4,772.0 8,130.6

482,485.9 100.0 151,635.3 199,947.7 60,368.8

‘Excludes some 18 million acres that may be classified as commercial timberland upon completion of forest surveys in interior Alaska.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. An analysis of the timber situation in the United States, 1952-2030. (In process.)

All ownerships 70,534.1

timber harvesting. Part of the acreage in these owner- Hardwood forest types occupy more than half of the Nation’s
commercial timberland.

ships is in heavily populated areas. While small size,
management objectives, and location may constrain
the potential for managing some of the area in these
ownerships as production units, and at any given time
limit the area available for harvest, all of these acres
grow timber. Tenures are short and objectives change
as owners change. The available evidence suggests
that nearly all of the timber on these ownerships
sooner or later becomes available and is used for
industrial wood products or fuelwood.

Hardwood forest types made up of a plurality of
such species as oak and hickory, gum, maple, birch,
aspen, and other deciduous trees, occupied more than
half of the commercial timberland area in 1977. More
than two-fifths was occupied by the southern pines,
Douglas-fir, hemlock, spruce, and other softwood
species. The remainder, about 4 percent, does not
contain tree cover adequate to determine forest type
and is classified as nonstocked.

The area of commercial timberland rose from 409
million acres in 1952 to 509 million in 1962. The
decline since then has been in response to land clear-
ing for such things as cropland, pasture land, roads,
and residential areas; reservation for other uses such
as wilderness and parks; and a slowdown in the area
of crop and pasture land reverting to forests.

228

Timber Inventory

The commercial timberlands of the United States
contained some 792 billion cubic feet of roundwood
in 1977 (table 6.14).

Size and species of timber. — About 64 percent of
the total colume was in sawtimber trees (trees large
enough to contain at least one log suitable for the
manufacture of lubmer). Another 26 percent was in
poletimber trees (trees from 5 inches in diameter at
breast height to sawtimber size and now or prospec-
tively suitable for industrial roundwood). The remain-
ing 10 percent of all roundwood volume was in
rough, rotten, and salvable dead trees. Some of this
latter material may be suitable for lumber and veneer,
but most of it is usable only for pulp, fuel, and other
products where log quality requirements are flexible.

There are substantial volumes of fiber that are not
included in the inventory statistics above. It has been
estimated, for example, that about 40 percent of the
total fiber in a tree occurs in the top, limbs, bark, and
foliage.33 In addition, nearly 25 percent of the total
above ground fiber in the Nation’s forests is in trees
less than 5.0 inches diameter at breast height. Little
use is being made of such material at the present time
because it is not economically feasible with existing
technology and with current costs of fiber from other
sources. This material does, however, represent a
large potential source of fiber for pulp, fuel, and the
production of various petrochemical substitutes.

Softwoods predominate in the Nation’s timber
inventory, accounting for about 61 percent of the
total volume of all classes of timber, and nearly two-

thirds of the growing stock — poletimber and saw-
timber trees. The softwood growing stock inventories
are mostly on the Pacific Coast (table 6.15). This dis-
tribution, in constrast to that for commercial timber-
land, which is predominately in the eastern United
States, reflects the concentration of timber in western
old-growth stands where high volumes per acre are
common.

National softwood growing stock inventories in-
creased 7 percent from 1952 to 1977. Inventories in
the North and South nearly doubled and there was a
small increase in the Rocky Mountains. However, as
a result of the harvest of old-growth stands there was
a continuing decline, about 15 percent, on the Pacific
Coast. National and regional softwood sawtimber
inventories showed similar trends, although the
changes on a percentage basis were somewhat
smaller.

Hardwoods made up about 36 percent of all classes
of standing timber in 1977, and about 23 percent of
all sawtimber. More than 45 percent of all hardwood
growing stock was in the North — nearly all the rest
was in the South. The 255 billion cubic feet of hard-
wood growing stock in 1977 was slightly more than
double that of 1952. Practically all of the increase
took place in the eastern United States with the North
and South making equal contributions.

Ownership of timber. — The largest portion of the
softwood timber inventory in 1977 was in National
Forests, including some 46 percent of all softwood
growing stock and more than half of the softwood
sawtimber (table 6.16). Most of this timber was in
old-growth stands in the western United States, with

Table 6.14 — Timber inventories on commercial timberlands in the United States, by class of
material and species group, January 1, 1977

Class of timber

Million
cubic feet

Percent

Growing stock trees:
Sawtimber trees:
Sawlog portion
Upper-stem portion

Total
Poletimber trees
Total

Salvable dead trees
Rough trees
Rotten trees

All classes

Source: See source note table 6.13.

All species Softwoods

504,828 367,821 92,350 275,471

792,371 100.0 484,633 147,912 336,721

Hardwoods

Million Million Million Million
cubic feet cubic feet cubic feet cubic feet
110,882

26,125

118,182
255,189

36,646
14,986

307,738

229

Table 6.15 — Growing stock and sawtimber inventories on commercial timberland in the
United States, by section and softwoods and hardwoods, January 1, 1977

Growing Stock

All species Softwoods Hardwoods

Million Million Million

Section

cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent
North 159,759 22.5 43,515 9.5 116,244 45.6
South 213,977 30.1 98,052 21.5 115,925 45.4
Rocky Mountains and
Great Plains 101,232 14.2 95,078 20.9 6,154 2.4
Pacific Coast 236,000 33.2 219,134 48.1 16,866 6.6
Total 710,968 455,779 100.0 255,189

Sawtimber

Million Million Million
board feet’ Percent board feet’ Percent board feet’ Percent
North 325,400 12.6 93,835 4.7 231,565 39.0
South 643,650 25.0 343,114 17:3 300,536 50.6
Rocky Mountains and
Great Plains 394,848 15.3 380,956 19.2 13,892 2.4
Pacific Coast 1,215,042 47.1 1,167,503 58.8 47,539 8.0

Total 2,578,940 1,985,408 100.0 593,532 100.0

‘International 1/4-inch log rule.
Source: See source note table 6.13

Table 6.16 — Ownership of growing stock and sawtimber in the United States, by
softwoods and hardwoods, January 1, 1977

Growing stock

wnership -

Million Million Million

cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent
National Forest 228,449 32.1 207,698 - 45.6 20,751 8.1
Other public 75,503 10.6 50,946 11.2 24,557 9.6
Forest industry 106,266 15.0 74,382 16.3 31,884 12.5
Farmer and other private 300,750 42.3 122,753 26.9 177,997 69.8
Total, all ownerships 710,968 100.0 455,779 100.0 255,189 100.0
Sawtimber

Million Million Million

board feet’ Percent board feet’ Percent board feet’ Percent
National Forest 1,058,386 41.0 1,009,287 50.8 49,099 8.3
Other public 286,099 11.1 235,174 11.9 50,925 8.6
Forest industry 394,924 15.3 314,276 15.8 80,648 13.6
Farmer and other private 839,531 32.6 426,671 21.5 412,860 69.5

Total, all ownerships 2,578,940

100.0 1,985,408 100.0 593,532

‘International 1/4-inch log rule.
Source: See source note table 6.13.

230

Softwoods, mostly in old growth stands on the Pacific Coast,
account for over three-fifths of timber inventories.

a major part in areas lacking access roads. National
Forests contained only 8 percent of all hardwood
growing stock.

Farmer and other private ownerships contained the
major part of the Nation’s inventory of hardwoods —
about 70 percent — and a substantial part of all soft-
wood inventories — about 27 percent. Nearly all of
this timber is readily accessible from existing road
systems and is favorably located in respect to the
major timber-consuming centers.

Forest industries held 16 percent of all softwood
inventories in 1977, and a somewhat smaller portion

of hardwoods. Nearly all of this timber is accessible.

to primary timber processing plants.

Public agencies other than the Forest Service held
roughly 11 percent of all timber inventories in 1977.
Nearly all of these inventories are accessible and are
important sources of timber for processing industries
in the Pacific Northwest and the Lake States.

Timber Mortality

Annual mortality losses from natural causes — fire,
insects, disease, storms, and other destructive agents
—were estimated at about 4 billion cubic feet of
growing stock in 1976 (table 6.17). Mortality of saw-

timber amounted to an estimated 12 billion board
feet (2.2 billion cubic feet). About 2.3 billion cubic
feet of growing stock mortality and nearly three-
quarters of sawtimber mortality was in softwood
species.

There has been some decline in mortality in the last
couple of decades. This has been entirely in softwood
mortality and reflects the reduction in the area of
old-growth stands, which have high natural mortal-
ity, in the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast. Hard-
wood mortality has shown some increases, a result of
the build-up in inventories and the associated in-
crease in stand crowding.

Most softwood mortality in 1976 was in the west-
ern United States, chiefly in the Pacific Coast section.
This distribution is related to the concentration of
timber volumes in this area and the high proportion
of overmature timber characteristic of old-growth
stands. Much of the sawtimber loss was in trees con-
taining large proportions of high-quality material.

Timber mortality on the National Forests amounted
to | billion cubic feet of growing stock, including 4.4
billion board feet of sawtimber. The bulk of this
material was softwood. In fact, nearly half of the
softwood sawtimber mortality occurred on the Na-
tional Forests. The primary cause of death has been
insect infestation and drought, mostly on the over-
mature trees in the old-growth stands.

While representing a significant volume — equiva-
lent to slightly more than a third of the 1976 softwood
removals from Forest Service lands— nearly all of
the mortality on the National Forests occurs in areas
which are unroaded and inaccessible for trucks and
tractors. Moreover, much of the mortality is scattered
over large acreages which precludes prompt detection
and treatment. With the existing technology, the
present location of processing plants, and current
product prices, salvage of such mortality is not eco-
nomically feasible in most forest stands including
those in roaded areas.

Net Annual Timber Growth

Net annual growth (i.e., total annual gross growth
less mortality) on growing stock was 22 billion cubic
feet in 1976 (table 6.18). There were substantial
volumes of growth in all regions and sections of the
country. More than half of the growth was in the
forest stands in the South. This is to be expected since
most stands in that section are relatively young and
vigorous. In the West, mortality in the old-growth
stands offsets much of the total annual growth. As a
result, net annual growth in the western sections was
5.2 billion cubic feet or less than 25 percent of the
national total.

23il

Table 6.17 — Mortality of growing stock and sawtimber in the United States, by ownership
and softwoods and hardwoods, 1976

Growing stock

Thousand Thousand Thousand

Ownership

Proportion

cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent
National Forest 1,001,344 25.5 887,255 38.5 114,089 7.0
Other public 523,521 13:3 328,865 14.3 194,656 12.0
Forest industry 593,407 15.1 376,256 16.3 217,151 13.4
Farmer and other private 1,806,625 46.1 710,198 30.9 1,096,427 67.6
Total, all ownerships 3,924,897 2,302,574 100.0 1,622,323
Sawtimber

Thousand Thousand Thousand

board feet Percent board feet’ Percent board feet’ Percent
National Forest 4,349,450 35.7 4,104,285 46.8 245,165 7.2
Other public 4,771,725 14.5 1,404,470 16.0 367,255 10.7
Forest industry 1,856,043 15.2 1,353,759 15.5 502,284 14.7
Farmer and other private 4,210,872 34.6 1,902,325 21.7 2,308,547 67.4

Total, all ownerships

12,188,090 8,764,839 100.0 3,423,251

‘International 1/4-inch log rule.
Source: See source note table 6.13.

Table 6.18 — Net annual growth of growing stock and sawtimber in the United States, by ownership
and softwoods and hardwoods, 1976

Growing stock

Ownership Total Softwoods Hardwoods
Thousand Thousand Thousand

cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent cubic feet Percent
National Forest 3,116,303 14.4 2,465,499 20.1 650,804 6.9
Other public 1,957,220 9.0 1,077,789 8.8 879,431 9.4
Forest industry 4,072,978 18.8 2,866,307 23.3 1,206,671 12.9
Farmer and other private 12,517,815 57.8 5,875,146 47.8 6,642,669 70.8
Total, all ownerships 21,664,316 12,284,741 100.0 9,379,575
Sawtimber

Thousand Thousand Thousand

board feet’ Percent board feet’ Percent board feet’ Percent
National Forest 12,742,778 17.1 11,030,360 22.2 1,712,418 6.9
Other public 6,864,716 9.2 4,757,304 9.6 2,107,412 8.5
Forest industry 15,049,902 20.2 11,746,553 23.6 3,303,349 13.2
Farmer and other private 39,963,436 53.5 22,157,453 44.6 17,805,983 71.4

74,620,832 49,691,670 24,929,162

Total, all ownerships

‘International 1/4-inch log rule.
Source: See source note table 6.13.

232

Well over half of the 1976 net growing stock incre-
ment was on softwood species. Again, more than half
of this, as well as 48 percent of the net hardwood
growth, was in the South.

Net annual sawtimber growth by species group
showed the same regional patterns as growing stock.
That is, about half of the total net annual sawtimber
growth was in the South and well over half on
softwoods.

Some 12.5 billion cubic feet or nearly 58 percent of
the net annual growth in 1976 was on lands in farmer
and other private ownerships. Moreover, this owner-
ship accounted for nearly half of the net softwood
growth and more than 70 percent of that of
hardwoods.

Forest industry lands ranked next in importance
—accounting for almost a fifth of the net growth.
Another 3.1 billion cubic feet, most of which was
softwoods, was on the National Forests. The other

public ownerships accounted for the remaining 9 per-
cent of the increment.

The distribution of net annual growth of sawtimber
by ownership is approximately the same as that for
growing stock.

Net annual growth of growing stock increased
from 14 to 21.7 billion cubic feet between 1952 and
1976, a rise of 56 percent (table 6.19). Most of this
increase was in the 14 years from 1962 to 1976. There
were similar percentage increases for both softwoods
and hardwoods. Sawtimber growth increased some-
what more rapidly, rising more than 63 percent in the
1952-76 period (table 6.20).

Net annual growth on a per acre basis also has been
rising steadily on all ownerships and in all regions.
Since 1952, the average per acre has increased from
28 to 45 cubic feet, a rise of 17 cubic feet or 61 per-
cent. Farmer and other private ownerships showed
the greatest improvement, with the average rising by

Table 6.19 — Net annual growth and removals of growing stock in the United States, by species
group and section, 1976

(Million cubic feet)

Item

North:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth

to removals

South:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth
to removals

Rocky Mountain and
Great Plains:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth
to removals

Pacific Coast:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth

to removals

Total, United States:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth

to removals

Note: Data for 1952 and 1962 differ from data published in earlier reports
because of adjustments based on newer information from remeasured Forest

[ase [1962 | 1970 | vere | 1952 | ve6e | ve70 [vere | 1952 | 1962 | 1070

Hardwoods

3,791
1,803

2.1
4,909
2,230

2.2

139
24

5.8
541
126

4.3

Survey plots. Data for all years are “trend level” estimates.
Source: See source note table 6.13.

233

Table 6.20 — Net annual growth and removals of sawtimber in the United States, by species
group and section, 1976
(Billion board feet, International 1/4-inch log rule)

Hardwoods

ci 1970_| 1976

North:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth
to removals

South:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth
to removals

Rocky Mountains and
Great Plains:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth
to removals

Pacific Coast:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth

to removals

Total, United States:
Net growth
Removals
Ratio of growth

to removals

Note: Data for 1952 and 1962 differ from data published in earlier reports
because of adjustments based on newer information from remeasured Forest

17.7 cubic feet. This represents an increase of nearly
two-thirds since 1952. The averages on the other pub-
lic and forest industry ownerships rose by 16.8 and
16.0 cubic feet — 68 percent and 38 percent,
respectively,

Net annual per acre growth on National Forests
increased by 13.2 cubic feet in the 1952-76 period, a
rise of 60 percent. At present, some 35 cubic feet are
being produced annually on the average National
Forest acre. This is below the other ownerships
because of the inclusion of the old-growth stands in
the West where mortality is high and net annual
growth per acre is low. In the East, where stand and
site characteristics are similar, net annual growth per
acre on the National Forests is close to or above that
of the other major ownerships.

The rising trends in net annual timber growth illus-
trate a striking success story in American forestry. In

234

Survey plots. Data for all years are “trend level” estimates.
Source: See source note table 6.13.

the late 1800’s and extending through the early
decades of the 1900’s, when the Nation’s timber
resources were being rapidly depleted, concern about
future supplies led to the development of a broad
array of policies and programs such as fire pro-
tection, tree planting, research, and public owner-
ship. The large increases in net annual growth since
1952 are presumably a result of these policies and
programs.

In spite of recent substantial increases, net growth
per acre on all ownerships is only about three-fifths of
what can be attained in fully stocked natural stands
(table 6.21, fig. 6.3). Growth is far below what could
be achieved with the use of genetically improved
trees, fertilization, spacing control, and other inten-
sive Management measures.

The relatively limited net growth of growing stock
and sawtimber in relation to the potential in 1976

Figure 6.3

Current and Potential Net Annual Growth Per Acre

Cubic Feet

North

South

Rocky 7°
Mountains 60

Pacific oe)
Coast 97

Current 1976

Potential

reflects in part partial stocking of trees on much of
the commercial timberland area, mortality and
growth losses from destructive agents, and the pres-
ence of brush and cull trees that limit regeneration
and increment of growing stock trees. These and
other factors, such as restocking problems, often
make it difficult and costly to achieve “full” stocking.

The gap between current average net annual growth
per acre and potential growth per acre in fully
stocked natural stands is substantial on all owner-
ships and in all regions. Thus, it appears that there is
a lot of room for improvement. From the standpoint
of increasing total timber supplies, the potential is
largest on the farmer and other private ownerships
that include 58 percent of the commercial timberland.

Timber Removals

Timber removals34 in 1976 totaled more than 14
billion cubic feet of growing stock, including 65 bil-
lion board feet of sawtimber (tables 6.19 and 6.20).
These volumes were substantially above levels in the
1950’s and early 1960’s, when removals averaged

about 12 billion cubic feet of growing stock, including
more than 50 billion board feet of sawtimber. Re-
movals in 1976, however, are only slightly above 1970
levels. This reflects, in part, a relatively low level of
demand for industrial timber products in 1976 result-
ing from the depressed situation in housing and non-
residential construction during that year.

Softwoods made up some 71 percent of all growing
stock removals, and 78 percent of all sawtimber re-
movals in 1976. These removals were concentrated in
the Pacific Coast and South.

Nearly 36 percent of all softwood removals in 1976
came from farmer and other private ownerships.
Another 36 percent came from forest industry owner-
ships, and about 28 percent from public lands.

By far the largest portion of timber removals is
used for timber products. In 1976, 88 percent of all

34 Timber removals from growing stock include: (a) Harvests of
roundwood products such as sawlogs, veneer logs, and pulpwood;
(b) logging residues; and (c) other removals resulting from non-
commercial thinning and changes in land use such as clearing for
cropland, highways, or housing development, and withdrawal of
forest lands for parks or other nontimber uses.

235

softwood removals and 67 percent of all hardwood
removals were used in this way. Total product use
amounted to 11.8 billion cubic feet of roundwood,
including 59 billion board feet of sawtimber. Logging
residues accounted for most of the remaining
removals.

Timber Growth-Removal Balances

Comparisons of net annual growth and removals
shown in tables 6.19 and 6.20 provide an important
indicator of the present timber situation including the
physical availability of timber for harvest.35

Softwoods. — In the past two and one-half decades,
net annual growth of softwoods in the eastern sec-
tions of the United States has been considerably
higher than removals. For example, in 1976, net
growth of eastern softwood growing stock exceeded
removals by 2.6 billion cubic feet, or 50 percent.

Most of the excess of softwood growth over re-
movals in the East was in the South. These generally
favorable growth-removal balances indicate that
eastern forests, and especially those in the South, can
support larger softwood timber harvests. But large
areas are still understocked, and a growth surplus will
be needed for some time if inventories are to be built
to more desirable levels. In addition, some part of the
growth is on land held primarily for recreation or
other nontimber purposes, and at any given time may
not be available for harvest.

For the western United States, removals of soft-
wood growing stock in 1976 exceeded net annual
growth by 0.3 billion cubic feet, or 7 percent. Re-
movals of softwood sawtimber totaled some 30 bil-
lion board feet, or nearly 8 billion board feet more
than net annual growth.

These apparent imbalances in the West do not in
themselves represent a serious problem on some
ownerships and in some areas because a sizable part
of the western timber harvest is drawn from old-
growth stands where allowable harvest can exceed net
growth for some time to come. Generally speaking,
deficit cutting in the West is occurring on the Pacific
Coast; the Rocky Mountain section is maintaining a
favorable growth-removal balance.

Although it is not general, removals on the Pacific
Coast, and particularly on forest industry owner-
ships, are at levels that cannot be sustained for long,
given recent investments in management programs.
As indicated in a following section, a substantial
reduction in harvests is inevitable on these owner-
ships within the next decade or so.

35 Many other factors such as species composition, volumes per

acre, accessibility, size of trees, ownership objectives, and prices
influence the volume of timber actually available for harvest.

236

In the last two and a half decades, net annual timber growth in
eastern forests has been larger than removals, and inventories have
been increasing.

Hardwoods. — Net growth of eastern hardwoods
in 1976 substantially exceeded removals, particularly
in the South. For the entire East, net growth of hard-
wood growing stock was 8.7 billion cubic feet — 116
percent above removals. Net growth of hardwood
sawtimber was 22.9 billion board feet, 66 percent
more than removals. Although overall growth-
removal balances for hardwoods were generally
favorable, in areas where extensive clearing has
occurred —as along the river bottom lands in the
West Gulf region in the South — net growth of hard-
woods was less than removals.

Hardwood removals tend to be concentrated on
preferred species such as walnut, sweetgum, yellow
birch, and the.larger diameter trees. As a result, re-
movals were above or close to net annual growth for
some species.

Projected Base Level Changes
in Timber Resources

The current growth-removal balances show that
domestic hardwood forests and eastern softwood
forests can now support additional timber harvest.
These balances will, of course, change; future supplies
and particularly those in the last decades of the pro-
jection period can vary over a wide range. However,
one of the objectives of this work is to prepare base
level projections that will show the likely trends in

Table 6.21 — Average net annual and potential growth per acre in the United States,
by ownership and section, 1976'

Unit of All
Item measure ownerships

North:

Current Cubic feet

Potential Cubic feet

Current/potential Percent
South:

Current Cubic feet

Potential Cubic feet

Current/potential Percent

Rocky Mountains and

Great Plains:
Current Cubic feet
Potential Cubic feet

Current/potential Percent

Pacific Coast:

Current Cubic feet

Potential Cubic feet

Current/potential Percent
Total:

Current Cubic feet

Potential Cubic feet

Current/potential Percent

‘Potential growth is defined as the average net growth attainable in fully stocked
natural stands. Much higher growth rates can be attained in intensively managed
stands.

timber supplies and other measures of the timber
resource such as inventories and net annual growth, if
recent trends in the basic determinants continue dur-
ing the next half century.36 Specifically, these base
level projections rest upon the assumptions that: (1)
Radial growth and mortality rates during the late
1960’s and early 1970’s will continue, (2) commercial
timberland area will continue to decline throughout
the projection period to 446 million acres by 2030, (3)
stumpage prices measured in 1967 dollars (net of
inflation or deflation) will continue to increase in the
future as they have in the 1960’s and 1970’s, (4) timber
harvests (projected supplies) will respond to stump-
age price and inventory changes much as they have
during the base period from 1950-74, and (5) the cur-
rent even-flow harvest policies and the nontimber
management objectives on public lands will set ceil-
ings, above which public harvests will not rise.
Although not an explicit forest management assump-
tion, the radial growth and mortality rates which are

36The projections are derived from a computerized model which
recursively simulates inventory changes and roundwood harvests.
This model is described in appendix 4 of the report “An analysis of
the timber situation in the United States, 1952-2030,” op cit. This
appendix also contains a brief discussion of other timber resource
projection models and citations of the pertinent recent literature.

Farmer
and other
private

Forest
industry

Other
public

National
Forest

32.9
65.2
50.5

54.5
76.5
71.1

23.4
49.7
47.0

62.0
98.9
62.6

45.0
71.9
62.6

Source: See source note table 6.13.

assumed to continue were greatly influenced by the
forest management activity that occurred during the
same time period.

In the simplest terms, the projections show what
would happen to timber supplies if the trends in the
major forces affecting the resource in the base period
used in making the projections continue to 2030. Pro-
jections of the consequences of the continuation of
recent trends are an essential first step in evaluating
the need for changes in timber policies and programs.

This is the basic purpose of this analysis. There is
no implication that the projected trends in timber
supplies will continue during the next five decades. In
fact, it is expected that as a result of the description of
these trends, and the associated economic, social, and
environmental implications, actions will be taken to
change the trends in ways which are considered to be
more desirable from the standpoint of the society.

Projected Base Level Timber Supplies

The base level timber supply projections prepared
using these and related assumptions show the supply
of softwood timber continuing to increase in the
future, but at a slower rate than between 1962 and
1976. The increase is accompanied by a sizable shift

237

among the sources of softwood timber supplies by
geographic section and ownership.

In total, projected softwood roundwood supplies
rise from 9.6 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 12.3 billion
cubic feet in 2030, an increase of 29 percent (table
6.22). The projected change in softwood sawtimber
supplies over the same period is from 50.0 to 55.6
billion board feet, a rise of 11 percent (table 6.23, fig.
6.4).

Projected base level softwood supplies by section.
— Roughly equal shares of the 1976 softwood round-
wood supplies came from the South (45 percent) and
Pacific Coast (41 percent). Together they accounted
for 85 percent of the softwood roundwood supplies in
the United States. The remaining 15 percent was
about equally split between the North and the Rocky
Mountains.

Base level softwood roundwood supplies in the
South are projected to rise by 47 percent by 2030,
from 4.2 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 6.2 billion. The
majority of the increase comes from the farmer and
other private lands. Large percentage increases also
are projected for the North and Rocky Mountain sec-
tions, but these sections continue to be relatively
small sources of supply.

In contrast to the projected increases in these sec-
tions, the softwood roundwood supplies are projected
to drop in the Pacific Coast from 3.9 billion cubic feet
in 1976 to 3.7 billion cubic feet in 2000. This is fol-
lowed by a rise to 3.9 billion cubic feet in 2030. The
major cause of the initial decline in the Pacific Coast
is the inability of the forest industry lands to maintain
current cutting levels. The old-growth inventory in
this ownership class is rapidly being depleted and
merchantable second-growth stands cannot offset the
decline in supplies from old-growth stands. At the
same time, supplies on the National Forest and other
public ownerships increase, but they are constrained
by evenflow and nontimber management objectives.
National Forest- projections are further influenced by
expected withdrawals of commercial timberland for
wilderness. Supplies from the farmer and other pri-
vate owners in the Pacific Coast are also projected to
increase, which is a reversal of a 25-year downward
trend. The projected growth in supplies on National
Forests, other public lands, and farmer and other pri-
vate ownerships is not large enough to compensate
for the drop on the forest industry ownerships.

The result of these divergent paths by section is a
substantial shift in the importance of the major geo-
graphic sections as timber producing areas. The pro-
jected sectional shares of the softwood roundwood
supplies in 2030 are 51 percent for the South and 31
percent for the Pacific Coast, quite different from the
45-41 percent shares in 1976.

238

In 1976, 50 percent of the softwood sawtimber
came from the Pacific Coast and 36 percent from the
South. The projected softwood sawtimber supplies in
the Pacific Coast drops substantially, from 26.6 bil-
lion board feet in 1976 to 19.6 billion board feet in
2030, with much of the decline occurring by 1990.
Softwood sawtimber supplies in the South are pro-
jected to increase from 18.0 to 27.3 billion board feet
over the same period. By 2030, 49 percent of the soft-
wood sawtimber supplies are projected to originate in
the South and 35 percent in the Pacific Coast.

The young and growing pine forests of the South can support
ncreased harvests.

ri aes

Table 6.22 — Roundwood supplies, net annual growth, and growing stock inventory in the
United States by section and softwoods and hardwoods, 1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976,
with base level projections to 2030
(Million cubic feet)

Projections
North:'
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 921 1,050 1,094
Net annual growth 1,660 1,452 1,374
Inventory 65,069 76,111 79,676
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 1,329 1,464 1,502 2,024 2,422 3,217 3,510
Net annual growth 3,507 3,926 4,192 4,305 3,963 3,386 3,282
Inventory 103,070 116,201 128,571 | 161,994 | 180,021 195,797 | 197,201
South:
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 4,887 5,392 5,774 6,053 6,229
Net annual growth 6,720 6,800 6,732 6,625 6,488
Inventory 119,833 | 134,699 | 145,385 | 152,465 | 156,120
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 1,692 4,117 5,213
Net annual growth 4,547 4,362 4,120
Inventory 104,873 146,839 135,550
Rocky Mountain:'
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 1,143
Net annual growth 1,427
Inventory 114,324
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 5
Net annual growth 87
Inventory 7,338
Pacific Coast:
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 3,435 3,807 3,868 3,757 3,737 3,763 3,807 3,868
Net annual growth 2,377 2,823 2,938 3,168 3,402 3,628 3,813 3,935
Inventory 241,833 230,820 219,134 | 190,267 | 184,276 | 181,837 | 181,237 | 182,132
Hardwoods: Y
Roundwood supplies 35 61 82 97 126 134 137 136 133
Net annual growth 357 443 539 541 305 225 175 147 129
Inventory 12,586 14,904 17,636 16,866 16,989 17,518 17,603 17,440 17,219
Total, United States:
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 7,536 8,701 9,511 10,369 11,058 11,607 12,034 12,334
Net annual growth 7,684 11,239 12,285 13,240 13,470 13,472 13,382 13,224
Inventory 424,946 449,790 455,779 | 468,521 | 490,216 | 508,550 | 522,314 | 532,252
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 3,362 3,052 3,391 3,295 4,886 6,027 7,065 8,132 8,861
Net annual growth 6,229 7,149 8,519 9,380 9,431 8,846 8,253 7,850 7,618
Inventory 178,448 206,961 230,637 255,189 | 315,637 | 346,879 | 362,381 | 364,507 | 357,308

‘Data for the Great Plains States — Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and
eastern South Dakota — included in the North.

Note: Supply data for 1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976 are estimates of the trend levels
or harvests and differ somewhat from the estimates of actual consumption shown

in some tables. For the projection years, the data show the volume that would be
harvested given the assumptions of the study.

Inventory data for 1952 and 1962 are as of December 31. Data for 1970, 1977 and
the projection years as of January 1.

239

Figure 6.4

Softwood Sawtimber Harvests, Total United States
1952 - 76, with Projections 60
of Supplies to 2030

40

20

Bil. Board Ft., 0
International %4-Inch Log Rule By Section
North South
40 40

20 20

0
Rocky Mountains and Great Plains Pacific Coast
40 40

20 20
0 0
By Ownership

National Fcrest Other Public

40 40

20 20

0 0
Forest Industry Farmer and Other Private
40 40

20-- —.. 20

x : 0 :
1952 ’°62 ’70 '76 ’90 ’00 '10 ’20 ’30 1952: "62: *70:.776> "90" 700)'°105°20:'30

240

Table 6.23 — Sawtimber supplies, net annual growth, and sawtimber inventory in the United States
by ownership and softwoods and hardwoods, 1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976,
with base level projections to 2030
(Million board feet, International ‘4-inch log rule)

Projections
Item 1952 1962 1970 1976

North:'
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies ; ; 2,793 i 3,309
Net annual growth ; 4,845 5,197
Inventory 162,646 202,649
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 4,413 5,861 6,188 7,603 9,674
Net annual growth 8,355 9,416 9,810 10,052 10,081
Inventory 212,277 236,784 262,517 391,946 424,684
South:
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 11,342 10,275 14,225 17,985 ; 24,068 27,327
Net annual growth 13,638 17,981 21,135 24,167 } 29,826 30,076
Inventory 196,556 245,712 295,804 341,022 : 555,193 638,275
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 7,692 6,301 6,225 6,336 13,804 17,381
Net annual growth 7,754 8,374 10,785 13,296 15,269 13,732
Inventory 212,634 219,381 238,791 273,686 418,028 390,687
Rocky Mountain:'
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 4,196 4,928 ; 5,167 5,347
Net annual growth 4,541 5,098 ; 6,845 i 6,815
Inventory 389,825 383,386 413,872 : 432,357
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 15 19 12 17 14 19 20 22 22
Net annual growth 98 107 143 256 280 295 299 302 297
Inventory 8,983 9,633 9,964 9,790 12,341 12,855 13,481 14,541
Pacific Coast:
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 22,421 22,241 24,912 25,152 ; } ; 19,567
Net annual growth 10,029 11,534 14,540 15,110 ; ; i 17,110
Inventory 1,430,096 | 1,327,344 | 1,239,606 | 1,167,503 ‘ t 805,466
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 435
Net annual growth 330
Inventory 50,122 50,838 47,930
Total, United States:
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 38,741 | 38,143 46,097 49,954 52,517 55,551
Net annual growth 30,170 36,976 44,272 49,692 55,875 57,935 i 59,197
Inventory 2,066,203 | 2,032,757 | 2,001,673 | 1,985,408 1,951,140 ]1,996,665 |2,040,293/2,078,748
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 11,924 10,933 12,414 : : 27,513
Net annual growth 15,717 18,194 21,969 24,929 : 24,441
Inventory 446,018 483,700 536,706 593,532 740,964 ; 890,263] 877,842
‘Data for the Great Plains States — Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and in some tables. For the projection years, the data show the volume that would be
eastern South Dakota — included in the North. harvested given the assumptions of the study.
Note: Supply data for 1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976 are estimates of the trend levels Inventory data for 1952 and 1962 are as of December 31. Data for 1970, 1977 and
of harvests and differ somewhat from the estimates of actual consumption shown the projection years as of January 1.

241

Changes in timber supplies of these magnitudes are
certain to have major and long-lasting impacts on the
economies of the two sections. From the standpoint
of the Pacific Coast, it will mean closed mills and
reduced timber-based employment and income. The
impacts are likely to be particularly severe in rural
areas where timber is the chief source of economic
activity. In the South, on the other hand, it suggests
new timber-based economic activity and associated
increases in employment and income.

Projected base level softwood supplies by owner-
ship. — The projected reduction in base level timber
supplies on the Pacific Coast is mostly the result of a
decline on forest industry lands. The projected
increase in southern supplies comes largely from
farmer and other private ownerships. Hence, the shift
among ownerships is as marked as shifts among sec-
tions (tables 6.24 and 6.25).

In total, National Forest softwood roundwood
supplies are projected to increase, in spite of an 11
percent reduction in commercial timberland area and
the harvest ceilings imposed by the evenflow policy
and nontimber management objectives, from 1.9 bil-
lion cubic feet in 1976 to 2.8 billion cubic feet in 2030,
22 percent of the national total. The softwood
roundwood supplies from forest industry lands are
projected to drop from 3.4 to 3.2 billion cubic feet
between 1976 and 2000 and then to gradually climb to
3.3 billion cubic feet in 2030. This is 26 percent of the
projected nationa! total compared to the 36 percent
contributed in 1976. The farmer and other private
ownerships supplies of softwood roundwood are pro-
jected to increase from 3.4 billion cubic feet in 1976 to
5.2 billion cubic feet in 2030. The share of the total
timber supply from these ownerships rises from 36
percent in 1976 to 43 percent in 2030.

The shifts in projected base level softwood saw-
timber supplies among the ownerships are in the same
directions as for softwood roundwood but generally
larger. For example, the share from the farmer and
other ownership increases from 29 to 41 percent of
the total by 2030 while that on the forest industry
drops from 38 percent to 24 percent.

Although the base level projections indicate that
supplies will increase substantially on farmer and
other private ownerships, mostly in the South, there
is uncertainty about the future responsiveness of
these ownerships to stumpage price and inventory
changes. These ownerships were quite responsive to
stumpage price increases between 1950 and 1974, but
many have nontimber management objectives which
could increasingly constrain harvests and raise har-
vesting costs.

242

Even more important from the longrun standpoint
are the present limited investments in timber man-
agement. Maintaining or increasing softwood timber
supplies in the South requires active timber manage-
ment, especially the regeneration of softwood stands
after harvest. Recent downward trends in the area in
pine types in the south indicate this is not being done.
As a result, there is a projected decline in net annual

growth in the farmer and other private ownerships
after 2000.

Projected base level hardwood supplies. — Hard-
wood timber harvests between 1952 and 1976 fluctu-
ated around 3.3 billion cubic feet of roundwood and
12 billion board feet of sawtimber. Because of higher
price elasticities, and the lack of any major inventory
constraints upon harvesting, hardwood supplies are
projected to increase at a faster rate than the soft-
wood supplies. Hardwood roundwood supplies are
projected to rise 2.7 times between 1976 and 2030,
from 3.3 to 8.9 billion cubic feet. Sawtimber supplies
more than double, moving up from 12.9 to 27.5 bil-
lion board feet.

The hardwood timber situation has been improving rapidly and
further improvements are likely. By 2030 the hardwood forests can
support harvests more than double those of 1976.

Table 6.24 — Roundwood supplies, net annual growth, and growing stock inventory
in the United States by ownership and softwoods and hardwoods,
1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976, with base level projections to 2030
(Million cubic feet)

Projections
It 1952 1962 1970 1976

National Forests:
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies

2,157 2,392 2,553 2,681 2,765

Net annual growth 2,710 2,871 2,986 3,057 3,073
Inventory 189,985 | 192,619 | 195,889 | 198,802 | 201,445
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 100 97 123 101 132 163 194 221 246
Net annual growth 396 508 569 651 631 560 484 433 397
Inventory 13,252 16,751 20,751 27,151 38,137
Other public:
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 416 562 908 1,060
Net annual growth 678 892 1,160 1,239
Inventory 49,918 49,533 54,315 63,885
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 122 115 156 177 232 307 339 367
Net annual growth 543 684 796 879 726 496 444 413
Inventory 14,645 18,805 29,978

Forest industry:
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies
Net annual growth
Inventory

Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies
Net annual growth

Inventory
Farmer and other
private:
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 4,883 5,109
Net annual growth 6,193 6,010 5,822
Inventory 166,797 | 177,091 | 183,473
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 2,718 2,624 2,543 3,752 5,416 6,240 6,789
Net annual growth 4,602 6,096 6,643 6,820 6,070 5,786 5,631
Inventory 130,526 161,638 177,997 | 217,848 244,750 | 243,047 | 234,905
Total, United States
Softwoods:
Roundwood supplies 7,536 7,328 8,702 9,512 10,369 11,058 11,607 12,034 12,334
Net annual growth 7,684 9,543 11,239 12,285 13,240 13,470 13,472 13,382 13,224
Inventory 424,946 440,822 449,790 455,779 | 468,521 | 490,216 | 508,550 | 522,314 | 532,252
Hardwoods:
Roundwood supplies 3,362 3,052 3,391 3,295 4,886 6,027 7,065 8,132 8,861
Net annual growth 6,229 7,149 8,519 9,380 9,431 8,846 8,253 7,850 7,618
Inventory 178,448 206,961 230,637 255,189 | 315,637 | 346,879 | 362,381 | 364,507 | 357,308
Note: Supply data for 1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976 are estimates of the trend levels Inventory data for 1952 and 1962 are as of December 31. Data for 1970, 1977 and
of harvests and differ somewhat from the estimates of actual consumption shown the projection years as of January 1.

in some tables. For the projection years, the data show the volume that would be
harvested given the assumptions of the study.

243

Table 6.25 — Sawtimber supplies, net annual growth, and sawtimber inventory in the United States
by ownership and softwoods and hardwoods, 1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976, with base level
projections to 2030
(Million board feet, International '/s-inch log rule)

Projections
Item 1952 1962 1970 1976

National Forests:

Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 6,078 10,360 12,225 Ef H 14,563
Net annual growth 6,915 8,154 10,175 14,504
Inventory 1,047,945 | 1,066,573 | 1,033,776 f ; 850,223
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 842
Net annual growth 1,690
Inventory 103,399
Other public:
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 2,326 3,322 4,297 P ; 5,143
Net annual growth 3,293 3,935 4,444 ; ; ; ; 5,906
Inventory 254,771 240,564 236,372 253,008 271,435
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 1,270
Net annual growth 1,867
Inventory 100,279
Forest industry:
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 16,068 ; ; 13,489 ; 13,196
Net annual growth 7,962 : 12,802 13,269
Inventory 410,284 253,612 261,279
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies y 3,204 3,799 4,705
Net annual growth : 3,998 3,933 3,617
Inventory 117,861] 123,200 : 116,566
Farmer and other
private:
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 14,268 11,447 13,311 } ‘ 22,650
Net annual growth 12,000 15,490 18,977 22,157 ; : ; 25,518
Inventory 353,203 361,680 396,324 426,671 : 695,811
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 9,760 8,751 9,812 ; 20,696
Net annual growth 12,011 13,323 15,880 : ; 17,267
Inventory : 333,415 347,853 376,991 i 557,598
Total United States:
Softwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 38,741 38,143 46,097 49,954 50,454
Net annual growth 30,170 36,976 44,272 49,692 55,875
Inventory 2,066,203 | 2,032,757 | 2,001,673 | 1,985,408 1,951,140
Hardwoods:
Sawtimber supplies 11,924 10,933 12,414 ; ; 27,513
Net annual growth 15,717 18,194 21,969 24,929 ; ; 24,441
Inventory 446,018 483,700 536,706 593,532 : 874,293] 890,263} 877,842
Note: Supply data for 1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976 are estimates of the trend levels Inventory data for 1952 and 1962 are as of December 31. Data for 1970, 1977 and
of harvests and differ somewhat from the estimates of actual consumption shown the projection years are as of January 1.

in some tables. For the projection years, the data show the volume that would be
harvested given the assumptions of the study.

244

Although less pronounced than the projected geo-
graphic shifts in softwood supplies, an increased
share of the hardwood roundwood supplies is also
projected to come from the South, from 51 percent in
1976 up to 59 percent (5.2 billion cubic feet) in 2030.
The North’s share shows a corresponding drop from
46 to 40 percent (3.5 billion cubic feet) in 2030. The
shift in hardwood sawtimber supplies toward the
South is greater than the shift in roundwood supplies.
The cause of this geographic shift is a slower increase
in supplies from the farmer and other private owner-
ships in the North. This presumably reflects differ-
ences in the importance of nontimber management
objectives in the two sections. Overall, however, the
farmer and other private ownerships are projected to
continue to provide three-fourths of the hardwood
supplies.

Projected Base Level Net Annual
Timber Growth and Mortality

As described above, there have been substantial
increases in net annual growth of both softwoods and
hardwoods in all sections and regions and on all
ownerships since 1952. In total, for example, net
annual growth of softwood growing stock rose from
7.7 to 12.3 billion cubic feet, while that of hardwoods
climbed from 6.2 to 9.4 billion cubic feet. Net annual
growth of softwood sawtimber rose from 30.2 to 49.7,
and hardwood from 15.7 to 24.9 billion board feet.

These trends are not expected to continue through
the projection period. Net annual growth of softwood
growing stock is projected to increase at progressively
slower rates to 13.5 billion cubic feet in 2010 and
decline slightly thereafter, to 13.2 billion cubic feet in
2030 (table 6.22). Net annual growth of softwood
sawtimber follows a similar trend, but it is still
increasing slowly beyond 2020 (table 6.23).

The projected trends in net annual softwood
growth vary among sections and ownerships (tables
6.24 and 6.25).. The trends for the North, South, and
Rocky Mountain sections are similar to the national
trends, although most of the decline that takes place
in growing stock in the last decades of the projection
period is in the South. Net annual softwood growth
in the Pacific Coast section continues to increase
through 2030. With respect to ownerships, net annual
growth increases on the National Forests, other pub-
lic, and forest industry ownerships—the decline
takes place on the farmer and other private lands.

These trends have varying causes. The increases in
the net annual growth on the Pacific Coast largely
reflect the effects of replacing the old-growth forests
on the National Forests and other public ownerships

where net annual growth is low, with young forests
where it is high. Net annual softwood sawtimber
growth on the forest industry ownerships in this sec-
tion declines through the projection period because of
reductions in timber inventories.

Inventory accumulations to the point of overstock-
ing are the cause of the declines in net annual growth
on all ownerships in the North, on public lands in the
South, and on most ownerships in the Rocky Moun-
tains. Overstocking leads to a reduced gross growth
and a slight increase in mortality, especially among
small-diameter trees. As a result, net annual growth
of growing stock turns down before that of saw-
timber. The projected reduction in net annual growth
in the South, nearly all on the farmer and other pri-
vate ownerships, is largely caused by the reversion of
large areas of harvested pine stands back to hard-
woods. Overstocking is also a contributing factor.

The projected trends in net annual growth of hard-
woods are roughly the same as those for softwoods.
However, hardwood net annual growth peaks earlier
and the decline is greater. Hardwood growing stock
net annual growth shows a slight increase between
1976 and 1990 to 9.4 billion cubic feet but then drops
to 7.6 billion cubic feet in 2030, 19 percent below the
1976 level. Net annual growth of hardwood saw-
timber continues to increase for a longer period, but
after a peak of 26.6 billion board feet in 2000, it drops
to 24.4 billion board feet in 2030, slightly below the
1976 level of 24.9 billion board feet.

The general trends of hardwoods in the sections are
similar to those shown by the national totals. There
are some differences among ownerships— most of
the drop occurs on the farmer and other private
ownerships.

The peaking and subsequent decline in projected
net annual growth of hardwoods is due to overstock-
ing. Hardwood inventories simply cannot continue to
increase without eventually having an adverse impact
upon growth.

In response to overstocking, softwood growing
stock mortality is projected to increase slightly in the
future, rising from 2.3 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 2.9
billion cubic feet in 2030. This is a reversal of the
downward trend in mortality between 1952 and 1976.
Hardwood growing stock mortality is projected to
continue its historical increase, also because of pro-
gressive overstocking, moving up from 1.6 billion
cubic feet in 1976 to 2.4 billion cubic feet in 2030.

As a result of the influence of overstocking, a grow-
ing share of the projected mortality will come from
natural stand development. As a timber stand
matures and crown closure occurs, suppressed under-
story trees die. Because such trees are usually scat-

245

tered throughout the timber stand and are generally
smaller in diameter than the live trees, they can sel-
dom be economically harvested. This is especially
true in rough terrain or where the nontimber impacts
of harvesting impose costly harvesting techniques.
There is some opportunity to salvage mortality which
results from catastrophic loss, but even there the
timber value decreases rapidly as the dead trees
deteriorate.

Projected Base Level Timber Inventories

Timber inventories often are considered an indica-
tor of the capability of the major ownerships to con-
tribute to the Nation’s timber supply. The potential to
maintain or increase current harvest levels over the
next three or four decades depends to a large extent
on the present stock of timber. The intensity and
character of forest management activities in the near
future will have significant impacts on timber inven-
tories and harvest levels beyond that time.

As indicated in the above discussion, the inven-
tories of softwood growing stock increased slowly
between 1952 and 1977, largely in response to accum-
ulations of inventories in the North and South. Soft-
wood sawtimber inventories declined slightly. This
reflected the reduction in inventories in the Pacific
Coast section associated with the harvests of old-
growth stands. Softwood sawtimber inventories in
the other sections increased, especially in the South,
where they rose 59 percent.

The projections show increases in both softwood
growing stock and sawtimber inventories (tables 6.22
and 6.23). Softwood growing stock inventories move
up from 456 billion cubic feet in 1977 to 532 billion in
2030, a rise of 17 percent. Most of the increase takes
place before 2010. Sawtimber inventories decline
initially, then rise slowly to 2,079 billion board feet in
2030, a level about 5 percent above 1976.

As in the case of nearly all components of the
timber resource, there are significant differences in
softwood inventory trends among sections and owner-
ships (tables 6.24 and 6.25). Inventories of both grow-
ing stock and sawtimber rise very rapidly in the North
and South. The increase is especially large in the
South — sawtimber inventories in this section, for
example, move up from 341 billion board feet in 1977
to 639 billion in 2030. There is also a small increase in
the Rocky Mountain section. However, inventories in
the Pacific Coast section decline, in the case of saw-
timber, from 1,168 billion board feet in 1977 to 805
billion in 2030.

There are large increases in projected softwood in-
ventories on farmer and other private ownerships.

246

There are also small increases in growing stock inven-
tories on the other major ownerships. In contrast,
there are substantial decreases in the sawtimber
inventories on the National Forest and forest indus-
try ownerships. The reduction in the inventories in
these ownerships is concentrated in the Pacific Coast
section and is the result of the harvest of old-growth
stands.

The trends outlined above have major impacts on
the distribution of the softwood inventory by owner-
ships, as indicated in the tabulation below:

Ownership distribution
of softwood sawtimber
inventory
(Percent)

Ownership

National Forests

Other public

Forest industry

Farmer and other
private

Although the National Forests continue to have
the largest softwood sawtimber inventory in 2030
(reflecting the volumes in residual old-growth
stands), the National Forest share of the total drops
markedly as does that for forest industry. The share
in farmer and other private ownerships increases sub-
stantially. There is a related shift in timber volumes
from the Pacific Coast to the South.

The hardwood growing stock inventory increased
much more than the softwood inventory between
1952 and 1977, from 178.4 to 255.2 billion cubic feet.
Hardwood sawtimber inventory also rose, although
less rapidly, going up from 446.0 to 593.5 billion
board feet.

The inventory of hardwood growing stock is pro-
jected to rise 40 percent by 2030 to 357.3 billion cubic
feet, and hardwood sawtimber by 48 percent to 877.8
billion board feet. The rate of growth is considerably
below the rate of accumulation in the 1952 to 1977
period. The slowdown is caused by reduced growth
resulting from overstocking and increased timber
removals.

Hardwood inventories — growing stock and saw-
timber — increase in all sections except the Pacific
Coast where the conversion of second-growth hard-
wood stands to softwoods is expected to result in
some reduction. Inventories also rise on all owner-
ships with the largest part on the farmer and other
private ownerships.

Unlike softwoods, the sectional distribution of the
projected hardwood sawtimber inventories between
the North and South is almost the same in 2030 as it
was in 1977, each with a little less than half of the
total. The ownership distribution is also about the
same. The farmer and other ownerships continue to
hold about two-thirds of the hardwood sawtimber
inventories.

The Qualified Outlook

The above projections of timber supplies, net
annual growth, and inventories should be considered
only as indicative of what would occur if the assump-
tions on the basic determinants are realized. Many
factors could cause changes in the projected trends.
For example, more intensive management could lead
to higher levels of timber growth and larger inven-
tories. On the other hand, the levels could be lower as
a result of larger shifts of commercial timberland to
other uses, more constraints on timber management
associated with the protection of the environment
and multiple-use, or extraordinary mortality losses.
Increases in the use of wood for fuel of the amounts
being currently discussed by the people concerned
with energy would have major impacts on timber
resources and lead to a situation much different from
that described, and especially for hardwoods.

Further, the projections are not intended as an
indicator of what might be desirable from social, eco-
nomic, or silvicultural standpoints — they are simply
indicators of what is likely to happen if forests are cut
and managed much as they have been in the last
decade or so. The following analyses will show that,
from the societal point of view, it will be desirable to
change the outlook. The analyses also will describe
two broad scope opportunities that could have a
major impact on the supply outcome. First, there are
vast biological opportunities for increasing timber
supplies. A substantial part of these are economic
opportunities, i.e., they would yield acceptable rates
of return on investments. Second are opportunities to
extend timber supplies through improvements in utili-
zation including utilization of residues and wood
fiber, such as in treetops and limbs, that are not
included in timber inventories.

Projected Timber
Demand-Suppiy Relationships

The base level projections of timber supplies dis-
cussed above and those of demand discussed earlier
are summarized in tables 6.5 and 6.6.

The Demand-Supply-Price
Outiook for Softwoods

The base level projections of demands on domestic
forests for softwood roundwood — after allowances
for imports and exports and improvements in
utilization — rise from actual consumption of 9.2 bil-
lion cubic feet in 1976 to 13.8 billion by 2000 and 15.7
billion by 2030 (table 6.5, fig. 6.5). The base level
projections of supplies of softwood roundwood from
U.S. forests under the assumptions specified earlier
show moderate increases from 9.2 billion cubic feet in
1976 to 11.1 billion in 2000 and 12.3 billion by 2030.
The outlook for softwood sawtimber is similar —
large increases in demand under base level assump-
tions and modest increases in supplies. The outlook is
also similar by regions (table 6.26).

It is evident from these comparisons of the base
level projections of demands and supplies that a sub-
stantial rise in the relative prices of softwood stump-
age and most softwood timber products beyond the
levels assumed in preparing the base level projections
will be necessary to balance demand and supplies in
future decades.

Projections of indexes of regional equilibrium
softwood stumpage prices}”? are summarized in table
6.27. These projections show softwood stumpage
prices rising substantially in all regions.38 In the
southern regions, stumpage prices measured in 1967
dollars and net of inflation or deflation, rise at an
annual rate of 2.5 percent per year between 1976 and
2030.39 This is considerably above the rate of increase
in the Douglas-fir region of the Pacific Northwest
(1.8 percent) and that in the northern regions (1.9
percent). It is, however, below those in the other

37 These are prices necessary to bring about an equilibrium
between the base level projections (medium level) of timber
demands and supplies. These prices and the associated equilibrium
timber demand-supply projections were developed by means of a
regionally disaggregated economic simulation model. For further
details see: Adams, Darius M., and Richard W. Haynes. The 1980
softwood timber assessment market model: structure, projections,
and policy simulations. Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Exp.
Sta., Portland, Oreg. (In process).

38 The regional analysis includes assumptions about increasing
processing efficiency but, like the base level price projections, does
not include any assumptions regarding management intensification
which would presumably result from the higher prices. To some
extent, the prices projected in the last decades of the projection
period are probably biased upward as higher stumpage prices
should include management intensification that, after 2000, would
lead to higher levels of timber supplies and lower prices. This
“reiterative” or “loop” problem is addressed further in a following
section of this chapter.

39 All prices are measured in 1967 dollars, thus the effects of
general price inflation or deflation are excluded. The increases
shown therefore measure change relative to the general price level
and to most competing materials.

247

regions and especially in the Rocky Mountain section
where projected stumpage prices rise at an average
rate of 3.8 percent per year. In all regions the rates of
increase are largest in the first decade of the projec-
tion period — they progressively decline in the follow-
ing decades.

The regional variations in the rates of increase are
caused by a number of complex forces. In general,
however, they reflect competition and differences in
regional logging, manufacturing, and transportation

costs. They are also influenced by the trend level of
stumpage prices in 1976. When these 1976 prices are
low (as is the Rocky Mountain section), the rates of
growth will be much larger, even with the same dollar
increase, than in regions in which the base year (1976)
prices are high (as in the Douglas-fir region). Most of
the decline in the rates of price increase over the pro-
jection decades is due to this same relationship, i.e. as
prices move up, the rates of change drop, although
the change in dollar terms may remain the same.

Table 6.26.— Summary of softwood timber demand on, and supply from, forests in the contiguous
States by region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976 with projections (medium level demand) to 2030
under alternative price assumptions
(Billion cubic feet)

Region

Northeast Regional
demand‘

Regional
supply®

Supply —
demand
balance

North
Central®

Regional
demand‘
Regional
supply®
Supply —
demand
balance
Southeast Regional
demand‘
Regional
supply*®
Supply —
demand
balance

South
Central

Regional |
demand‘*

Regional
supply®

Supply —
demand
balance

Rocky
Mountain

Regional
demand‘

Regional
supply®

Supply —
demand
balance

See footnote at end of table.

248

Projections
Equilibrium price trends?

item | 1952" | 1962] 1970"| 1976" |__Base level price trends*___| ETUDE

Table 6.26.— Summary of softwood timber demand on, and supply from, forests in the contiguous
States by region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976 with projections (medium level demand) to 2030
under alternative price assumptions — continued
(Billion cubic feet)

Region
Pacific Regional
Northwest:’ demand‘
Douglas- | Regional
fir supply®
sub- Supply —
region demand
(west- balance
ern Wash-
ington and
western
Oregon)
Ponder- Regional
osa pine demand‘
sub- Regional
region supply®
(east- Supply —
ern demand
Wash- balance
ington
and
eastern
Oregon
Pacific Regional
Southwest® demand‘
Regional
supply®
Supply —
demand
balance
Total, Demand‘

Supply®

Supply —
demand
balance

‘Data are estimates of actual consumption or harvests and differ somewhat
from the “trend” estimates shown in the preceding section on timber supplies.

?Projections show timber demand on, and supply from domestic forests
assuming that the price trends in the base period used in making the projections
(roughly from the late 1950’s through the mid-1970's) continue through the
projection period.

’Projections show timber demand on, and supply from domestic forests
assuming that prices rise enough to maintain an equilibrium between projected
demand and supply.

“Demand for products converted to a roundwood equivalent basis. The
Projections include adjustments for increased product yield per unit of round-
wood input which are expected to result from improvements in utilization.

i 2
1970'| 1976" Base level price trends

Projections
Equilibrium price trends?
2030

°The base level projections show the volume of timber available for harvest
from regional forests if recent trends in the forces determining supply, such as
commercial timberland area, management and prices, continue through the
projection period.

®Includes the Great Plains States— Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and
eastern South Dakota.

7Excludes Alaska.

8 Excludes Hawaii.

Note: Data may not add to totals because of rounding.

Sources: Data for 1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976 based on information published
by the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Commerce.

Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

249

Figure 6.5

Projections of Softwood Roundwood Demands and Supplies

on Domestic Forests

Billion Cubic Feet
20

15

0)
1950

LS a

1960 1970 1980

There are significant changes in demand and sup-
plies associated with the projected increases in soft-
wood stumpage prices. Roundwood demands are
reduced below the amounts indicated by the base
level projections in all regions (table 6.26). At the
same time, supplies rise above the base level projec-
tions as private timber owners respond to higher
prices. Consequently, as illustrated in figure 6.5, the
equilibrium level falls between the base level demand
and supply projections.

As a result of the increase in timber harvests asso-
ciated with the equilibrium projections, by the end of
the projection period softwood timber inventories in
the South and the Pacific Coast would be substan-
tially below those indicated for the base level projec-
tions shown in table 6.22. In the South, for example,
the inventories of softwood growing stock in 2030
which would result from equilibrium levels of harvest
are only a little over half of the projected base level
inventories (fig. 6.6). Declines of this size mean that
maintenance of the equilibrium levels of harvests for

250

1990

Base Level Demand

Equilibrium

Base Level Supply

2000 2010 2020 2030

periods beyond the next few decades would require
investments in various management programs much
larger than assumed in the base level analysis. It also
suggests that without greatly expanded management
programs, prices in the latter part of the projection
period, and in the decades that follow, are likely to
rise at rates much above those indicated in table 6.27.
Equilibrium price paths for the major timber prod-
ucts also were developed by means of the regionally
disaggregated economic simulation model (see foot-
note 37). This analysis shows softwood lumber and
plywood prices measured in 1967 dollars, increasing
at an annual rate of 1.7 and 1.4 percent, respectively.
The lumber price increase is generally consistent with
historical trends in relative lumber prices.
Equilibrium price increases for paper and board
are likely to be lower than those for lumber, as in the
past. For example, in contrast to the projected 123
percent increase for softwood lumber between 1976
and 2030, relative prices of paper and board rise by
only about a third. This rise reflects the effects of

Figure 6.6

Eee sss eae

Projected Softwood Roundwood Inventories in the South

Billion Cubic Feet
200

100

1950 1970

1990 2010 2030

intensified competition for timber. However, greater
increases in prices may be necessary in the pulp and
paper industry to attract the capital required to meet
projected demands for pulp and paper and to reflect
rising costs of fossil fuels and chemicals.

The projected equilibrium stumpage price increases
would have widely varying impacts on the base level
projections of demand for the major timber products,
because of differences in the price elasticity of
demand and the importance of stumpage costs rela-
tive to product selling prices. The largest impact is on
softwood lumber demands; the equilibrium projec-
tions show only a small increase over the levels pre-
vailing in recent years and are much below the base
level projections. On the other hand, the demand for
paper, board, and pulpwood is not reduced very
much — the projected equilibrium levels are close to
the base level projections through the projection
years.

The Demand-Supply-Price
Outlook for Hardwoods

In the case of hardwood roundwood, projected
base level demands on domestic forests — after allow-
ances for imports and exports — rise from 2.9 billion
cubic feet in 1976 to 6.0 billion in 2000 and 9.4 billion
in 2030 (table 6.6). Projected supplies rise from 2.9
billion cubic feet in 1976 to 6.0 billion in 2000 and 8.9
billion in 2030. The supplies of hardwood roundwood
potentially available under the base level assumptions
in terms of cubic feet exceed or equal projected base
level demands through 2000, but fall increasingly
short thereafter. Demands on domestic forests for
hardwood sawtimber rise from about 10.8 billion
board feet in 1976 to 20.0 billion in 2000 and 29.7
billion in 2030. The projected demands are consist-
ently somewhat above the base level projections of
supplies throughout the projection period.

251

Table 6.27 — Indexes of trend level’ softwood stumpage prices? in the contiguous States, by regions,
1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976, with projections of equilibrium prices? to 2030.

(Indexes of prices per thousand board feet,
International 1/4-inch log rule — 1967 = 100)

Region

Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central
Rocky Mountains
Pacific Northwest:
Douglas-fir subregion
(Western
Washington and
western Oregon)
Ponderosa pine
subregion
(Eastern Washington
and eastern Oregon)
Pacific Southwest

‘Indexes of prices on a least squares regression line fitted to time series price
data for the years 1950-76.

?Prices are measured in constant (1967) dollars and are net of inflation or
deflation. They measure price changes relative to the general price level and most
competing materials.

> Indexes of the prices which would result from stumpage prices rising enough
to maintain an equilibrium between projected timber demands and supplies.

The outlook by regions is somewhat different from
the national outlook (table 6.28). Base level projected
demands on domestic forests rise above base level
supplies by 1990 in the South Central region but
remain somewhat below base level supplies in the
northern regions until after 2000.

In general, the base level projections for hardwood
— both roundwood and sawtimber — show a more
favorable supply outlook than is the case for soft-
woods. It appears that supplies will be adequate in
the next two or three decades to meet demands for
most hardwood products. As a result, there may not
be much increase in average hardwood stumpage
prices in the years immediately ahead (table 6.29).
Beyond the next few decades, however, base level
demands begin to rise above base level supplies. As
this occurs, stumpage prices will move upward, espe-
cially in the South Central region, where the competi-
tion for the available supplies is likely to be the most
intense.

This outlook will be changed if there is an increase
in demand for fuelwood or any other product much
above the projected levels. Such an increase would
likely fall primarily on the hardwood resource in the
North. A relatively small increase could significantly
alter the demand-supply balances in the northern
regions and result in rising prices in the years imme-

252

Projected indexes of equilibrium prices?

279.5
279.0
526.8
524.7
1045.0

430.3

603.1

These indexes were computed from stumpage price projections and the trend
1967 stumpage price. While convenient for displaying changes within regions
and the relative rates of change between regions, these indexes should not be
used to compare prices among regions. For example, the projected index levels
imply that the Rocky Mountain region has the highest stumpage prices relative to
other regions when in fact it is among those regions with the lowest stumpage
prices.

diately ahead. A large increase in demand would, of
course, greatly intensify the competition for hard-
wood timber and cause rapid increases in prices.

The immediate outlook for larger-sized hardwood
sawtimber of preferred species, such as white oak,
sweetgum, yellow birch, hard maple, walnut, and
black cherry, is quite different from that for the
smaller-sized lower-quality material. Removals of
such timber have been close to or above net annual
growth in recent decades, and continuing and large
increases in stumpage prices have apparently re-
flected this situation. These trends seem likely to
continue.

Partly as a result of these kinds of increases, and
the smaller ones associated with the growth in
demand for other kinds of hardwood timber, there is
a substantial rise in projected prices of most hard-
wood timber products. These average about 1.2 per-
cent per year for hardwood lumber and 0.7 percent
per year for hardwood plywood.

The General Price Outlook

In view of the many uncertainties involved in pro-
jecting both demands and supplies, the above esti-
mates of prices at which demands and supplies might
be balanced must be regarded as general approxima-

Table 6.28 — Summary of hardwood timber demand on, and supply from, forests in the contiguous
States by region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976 with projections (medium level demand)
to 2030 under alternative price assumptions
(Billion cubic feet)

Region

2
1952" | 1962'| 1970"! 1976" Base level price trends

Projections
Equilibrium price trends?

Northeast | Regional
demand?*

Regional
supply®

Supply —
demand
balance

North
Centralé

Regional
demand?’
Regional
supply®
Supply —
demand
balance
Southeast | Regional
demand*
Regional
supply®
Supply —
demand
balance

South
Central

Regional
demand‘

Regional
supply®

Supply —
demand
balance

West Regional
demand’
Regional
supply®
Supply —
demand
supply

Demand‘

Supply’

Supply —
demand
balance

Total, all
regions

'Data are estimates of actual consumption or harvests and differ somewhat
from the “trend” estimates shown in the preceding section on timber supplies.

?Projections show timber demand on, and supply from domestic forests
assuming that the price trends in the base period used in making the projections
(roughly from the late 1950’s through the mid-1970's) continue through the
Projection period.

3Projections show timber demand on, and supply from domestic forests
assuming that prices rise enough to maintain an equilibrium between projected
demand and supply.

“Demand for products converted to a roundwood equivalent basis. The
Projections include adjustments for increased product yield per unit of round-
wood input which are expected to result from improvements in utilization.

5 The base level projections show the volume of timber available for harvest
from regional forests if recent trends in the forces determining supply, such as
commercial timberland area, management and prices continue through the
projection period.

®Includes the Great Plains States — Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and
eastern South Dakota.

Note: Data may not add to totals because of rounding.

Sources: Data for 1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976 based on information published
by the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Commerce.

Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

253

Table 6.29. — /ndexes of trend level’ hardwood stumpage prices? in the contiguous States,
1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976, with projections of indexes of equilibrium prices? to 2030

(Index of price per thousand board feet,
International 1/4-inch log rule — 1967 = 100)

Region

Northeast
North Central
Southeast
South Central

‘Prices on a least squares regression line fitted to time series price data for the
years 1962-70.
2Prices are measured in constant (1967) dollars and are net of inflation or

tions that would only be realized under the assumed
conditions underlying these specific projections.

Many factors could lead to price paths different
from those indicated by this analysis. For example,
the projections of demand could vary from those
shown if the growth in population, economic activity,
and income is different from that assumed. As indi-
cated above, changes in the demand for some prod-
ucts, such as fuelwood, also could greatly alter the
future price outlook.

Timber supplies could be lower, and prices higher,
than projected as a result of factors such as greater
diversion of commercial timberlands to other uses,
more constraints on timber management because of
environmental considerations, nontimber objectives
of forest owners, or extraordinary mortality losses.
Also, more intensive management than that assumed
could result in higher supply levels than shown by the
projections and result in lower stumpage and product
prices.

Despite all uncertainties, it does seem reasonably
certain that the Nation is faced with the prospect of
continuing and substantial increases in relative stump-
age prices for most species and sizes of timber and for
most timber products. The increases are likely to be
largest for softwood sawtimber, the higher quality
hardwood timber of preferred species, and the
products —chiefly lumber and plywood — made
from this timber. This outlook is consistent with the
trends that have prevailed during most of the twen-
tieth century. It reflects growing economic scarcity of
a basic raw material.

Social, Economic, and Environmental
Effects of Rising Timber Prices

A growing economic scarcity of timber and the
associated increases in the relative prices of stumpage

254

Projected equilibrium prices?

[7880 [2000 | 2010 | 2020]

105.1
123.3
126.4

deflation. They measure price changes relative to the general price level and most
competing materials.

3The prices which would result from stumpage prices rising enough to
maintain an equilibrium between projected timber demands and supplies.

and timber products, such as those described above,
will have significant effects on the economy, the
environment, and general social well-being.4° In
general, future use of timber as defined by the
demand-supply equilibrium analysis will be signifi-
cantly below what it would have been if supplies were
large enough to meet the base level projections of
demand. The use of softwood sawtimber, for ex-
ample, will be some 17 billion board feet less in 2030
than it would have been if supply was large enough to
meet the projected demands.

Rising relative stumpage prices will, of course,
benefit many stumpage owners, although the increase
in returns per unit of stumpage sold may be offset in
substantial part by reductions in the total volume
sold. The timber processing industries, as distinct
from stumpage owners, will experience reductions in
future net revenues relative to what would have been
received if stumpage supplies were large enough to
meet base level demands. Further, it is estimated that
rates of price increase for stumpage will be substan-
tially higher than the rates for lumber and plywood.
Thus, wood processors will be under considerable
pressure to invest in new equipment and adopt manu-
facturing processes that reduce production costs and
make more effective use of raw materials. Firms that
are unable to make this adjustment will likely face
serious difficulties.

Looked at in another way, the growing economic
scarcity of timber will reduce markets and limit the
expansion potential of the timber industries, particu-
larly the lumber industry that is dependent on rela-
tively large, higher-quality sawtimber. An indicator
of this is the prospective effects on employment and

40 For further amplification of the following material, see: McKil-
lop, William. Social, economic, and environmental effects of rising
timber prices. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. (In
process)

payrolls in the logging and timber processing indus-
tries. Employment per unit of lumber and plywood
produced in the United States dropped quite sharply
until the mid-1960’s, but has leveled off since then.4!
Some slight further declines may occur as manufac-
turers install labor-saving equipment in an effort to
hold down costs in the face of rising prices for raw
materials. However, the absence of any significant
current trend suggests that future levels of employ-
ment per unit of output may be close to those at the
present time.

On this basis, it is estimated that the 17 billion
board feet shortfall in softwood supplies referred to
above would be associated with a level of timber
industry employment in the year 2030 that is some
90,000 man-years less than would have existed if
softwood timber supplies were large enough to meet
base level projections of demand. Impacts on total
economy-wide employment would be much larger
because of the multiplier effect. Multiplier estimates
derived by input-output analysis indicate that the
associated total potential job losses in regional econ-
omies will be more than 250,000. Such impacts are
especially critical because of the higher rates of
unemployment frequently found in communities that
are heavily dependent on timber or other’ natural
resources.

Analysis of the relationship between lumber prices
and construction cost*? indicates that a 1.0 percent
increase in the price of softwood lumber will lead to
an 0.16 percent increase in the construction cost
index of residences. Given estimates of the elasticity
of demand for housing,*?“4 a 1.0 percent rise in the
price of lumber will also lead to an 0.08 percent
decrease in the number of housing units built.

The demand-supply equilibrium analysis presented
above shows that softwood lumber prices will be
some 82 percent higher in 2030 than the level in 1977.
An increase of this size would result in a 7 percent
reduction in output of residential units from the levels
that would have existed with stable timber product

41 Lumber and plywood production data from the U.S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture, Forest Service. The demand and price situa-
tion for forest products. Miscellaneous Publication Series. Annual.
Employment data from the U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Survey of current business.
Monthly.

42 American Appraisal Company, Inc. Boeckh construction cost
index for residences. Jn Construction Review. U.S. Department of
Commerce, Industry and Trade Administration, Washington. Vol.
24, No. 8, p. 17. 1978.

43 Reid, Margaret G. Housing and income. University of Chi-
cago Press. Chicago. 405 p. 1962.

44 Muth, Richard F. The demand for nonfarm housing. In The
demand for durable goods. Arnold C. Harberger (Ed.), University
of Chicago Press. Chicago. p. 29-96. 1960.

prices. Increased substitution of competing materials
might partially mitigate this impact, but the possibil-
ity of future rises in the relative prices of competing
materials also must be considered, as must the costs
of adapting building technology to utilize them.
Increases in consumer expenditures for timber
products, or for commodities such as furniture made

. wholly or in part from them, is a major consequence

of rising timber prices. The effect of rising timber
prices will be partially offset by substitution of com-
peting materials but, despite this, consumers will
suffer substantial potential reductions in well-being.
It is estimated that they will pay some $7 billion more
for wood products and competing materials in 2030
because of the lack of sufficient softwood timber to
maintain relative prices of processed wood at the
1977 level.

The effects of rising timber prices on the Nation’s
energy consumption and on environmental quality
are also substantial. Materials such as steel, alumi-
num, concrete, and plastics that compete with wood
products, are derived from nonrenewable resources.
Greater energy requirements are necessary for utiliz-
ing nonrenewable resources than for timber resour-
ces;45 and there are associated and serious problems
of waste disposal and deteriorating environmental
quality.46 On the other hand, lumber and wood pro-
ducts are in a relatively favorable position because of
recyclability, biodegradability, and the lower levels of
air and water pollutants associated with their
manufacture.”

The possibility of adverse environmental and en-
ergy impacts depends to a large extent on the degree
to which substitute materials displace wood products
as timber prices rise. Reports of the Committee on
Renewable Resources for Industrial Materials pro-
vide information on the technical substitut ability of
competing materials in residential construction.*®
This information suggests that 17 billion board feet
loss in timber output would involve an increase of
some 40 million tons in the use of concrete and some
20 million tons of steel. On the basis of the findings of
a Committee panel, it was estimated that 17 billion
board feet of softwood timber would require some 60
trillion British thermal units (Btu) of energy for its

45 Abelson, Philip H., and Allen H. Hammond. The new world
of materials. Science, 101(4228) 633-636. 1976.

46 Carpenter, Richard A. Tensions between materials and envi-
ronmental quality. Science, 191(4228) 665-668. 1976.

47 Cliff, Edward P. Timber: the renewable resource. Report to
the National Commission on Materials Policy. Washington, D.C.
149 p. 1973.

48 Committee on Renewable Resources for Industrial Materials.
Renewable resources for industrial materials. National Research
Council, Washington, D.C. 267 p. 1976.

255

extraction, processing, and transporta tion.4? More
than eight times this amount of energy would be
required to produce the concrete and steel necessary
to replace a like quantity of timber prod ucts in home
construction.

Similar significant impacts may occur in relation to
environmental quality as a result of substitution of
competing materials for timber products. The pro-
duction of these substitute materials results in sub-
stantially higher emissions of air and water pollu-
tants. Implementation of air and water quality
legislation will do much to lessen this pollution, but
expenditures for controlling it represent substantial
costs to society through higher prices, reduced out-
put, or diversion of investment capital.5°5! In addi-
tion, the greater energy demands of the steel, alumi-
num, concrete, and plastics industries means that any
impairment of environmental quality is accentuated
by potential pollution associated with increased
power generation.

The impacts of substitution are not restricted to
domestically produced materials. Imports of timber
products, especially softwood lumber from Canada,
can be expected to rise during the early decades of the
projection period along with imports of substitute
materials such as steel. Increased domestic produc-
tion of energy-demanding substitutes will lead to
greater importation of petroleum products. These
changes, together with the possibility that exports of
many products could be dampened by rising timber
prices, means that the United States balances of trade
could be significantly affected.

In summary, it seems that rising relative prices of
stumpage and timber products will have far-reaching
consequences of a diverse and complex nature. Con-
Sumer expenditures will increase, timber industry
employment and output will decrease, environmental
quality will be adversely affected, greater demands
for energy will occur, and there may be a significant
effect on the balance of payments. The President’s
Advisory Panel on Timber and the Environment con-
cluded that “the long-term needs of the people and
the Nation will be better served by increased produc-
tion and improved use of timber rather than by
increased reliance on nonrenewable minerals.”5? The

49 Boyd, C. W., P. Koch, H. B. Mckeen, C. R. Morschauser, S. B.
Preston, and F. F. Wangaard. Wood for structural and architec-
tural purposes. Report of CORRIM Panel II. Wood and Fiber.
8(1)1-72. 1976.

°° Carpenter, Richard A. op. cit.

51 LeSourd, D. A., M. E. Fogel, A. R. Schleicher, and T. E.
Bingham. Comprehensive study of specific air pollution sources to
assess the economic effects of air quality standards. Research Tri-
angle Institute. Research Triangle Park. North Carolina. 76 p.
1970.

>? President’s Advisory Panel on Timber and the Environment.
Arlington, Va. 541 p. April 30, 1973. :

256

low cost of wood is a major factor in its ability to
compete with alternative materials. Restraining fu-
ture rises in timber prices through increases in supply
presents an opportunity to satisfy future demands for
industrial materials at minimal cost to the individual
citizen and to society.

Biological and Research Opportunities
for Increasing Timber Supplies
and Reducing Losses

Future supplies of timber can be increased by a
variety of measures such as accelerated regeneration;
increased use of genetically improved planting stock;
changing the species composition and the site condi-
tions of some lands; improving the scheduling of
harvest cuts and intermediate removals; reducing
losses from natural mortality, fire, insects and dis-
eases; and harmonizing the production of timber with
other benefits.

Increasing Timber Supplies

Regeneration. — Much has been done to improve
regeneration following logging. Site preparation and
planting or seeding of stands and modification of
harvesting practices to obtain natural regeneration
are examples. For various reasons, the efforts have
been inadequate, especially for softwood species. For
example, hardwoods are replacing pine types in the
South and brush on a number of softwood types in
the West. Large increases in softwood timber supplies
could result from regenerating these softwood stands
after harvest. Shortening the regeneration period
could also increase future supplies. The application of
mycorrhizal fungi could reduce the time seedlings
remain in nursery beds and improve seedling survival
after outplanting.

In addition, softwood timber supplies can be
increased by regenerating to conifers the nonstocked
lands along the Pacific Coast. In northwestern Cali-
fornia, western Oregon, western Washington, and
coastal Alaska, more than 75 percent of the non-
stocked lands are on highly productive sites. In con-
trast, most of the nonstocked commercial timber-
lands in other parts of the country offer relatively
little opportunity to increase timber supplies, because
the nonstocked site areas are concentrated on with
low productivity.

In general, adequate hardwood regeneration natu-
rally occurs after harvesting. However, harvesting
practices that insure adequate openings and preserve
soil fertility will greatly increase the growth and qual-
ity of the regenerated stands. Adequate hardwood

eee

tres.) Cg
Rising prices of lumber, plywood and other timber products will have serious adverse impacts on consumers. For example, it will raise housing
construction costs and reduce the number of units built.

regeneration often will require such measures as
clearing; piling, chipping, disking, or burning logging
debris; bedding prior to planting; controlling vege-
tation; or combinations of such measures.

Genetically improved planting stock. — Regenera-
tion by planting offers an opportunity to use geneti-
cally improved planting stock. The possible increase
in timber production per unit area may be as much as
15 to 20 percent. Breeding programs now underway
could substantially expand these potential gains. For
some sites, even larger increases can be attained with
a joint use of genetically superior trees, fertilizers, and
water controls.

The current trend toward tree selection and propa-
gation of individuals with superior traits is designed
to maximize yield, but tends to narrow the genetic
base of the crop trees. This could lead to future dis-
ease and insect losses unless substantial effort is made
to select for resistant lines and to monitor the wild
population of pathogens to be aware of any new viru-
lent biotypes that appear.

Stand and site conversion. — Many areas in the
East and on the West Coast support poorly stocked
stands, or stands stocked with less desirable species of

poor quality trees that will produce little volume or
value growth. Clearing of such stands and replanting
can increase supplies of softwoods and certain pre-
ferred hardwood species. Also, in the case of some
stagnated stands of species such as lodgepole pine in
the Rocky Mountains, removal of the present trees
and replacement by new stands of the same or differ-
ent species is the only way to achieve full use of the
site potential. Such conversion in some areas may be
limited by low sites or because of wildlife or other
nontimber considerations.

Some land areas such as the shrub bogs in the east-
ern United States, and some of the brushlands in the
Pacific Northwest, can be changed to productive
sites. Drainage, the addition of selected kinds of fer-
tilizers, and an increase in physical accessibility for
management actions are required to accomplish such
changes.

Intermediate stand treatments. —\n many forest
types, stand density has increased to the point where
long rotations are required to produce merchantable
wood. At its worst, this crowding results in stagna-
tion, especially on poor sites, with resulting stands of
small, spindly trees that may never become merchant-
able —at least by present standards.

257

Intermediate treatments such as precommercial
thinning, weeding, pruning, and release of desirable
trees early in the life of overcrowded stands would
have major impacts on timber values. Such treat-
ments do not produce immediately usable wood, but
have a payoff in faster growth of residual trees,
shorter rotations, higher quality wood, and increased
resistance to insects and disease.

There are large areas of overcrowded stands of
merchantable size trees. Numerous research studies
have indicated that cutting of some merchantable
trees to improve spacing and stimulate growth (com-
mercial thinning) can provide early returns, utilize
material otherwise lost as mortality, and concentrate
growth on the more valuable trees.

Accelerated harvest of old-growth stands on the
National Forests in the West. — Increases in timber
harvests above sustained yield levels in the old growth
timber stands on the National Forests in the West
could temporarily increase the volume of timber
available for harvest. This course, which has been
proposed by some members of the timber industries,
some timber-dependent communities, and other asso-
ciated interests, could offset for a time the expected
decline in the harvest of timber from forest industry
ownerships in the Pacific Northwest. However, har-
vests above the sustained yield level could not be
maintained with present and planned management
programs and the dependent industries and com-
munities would sooner or later be faced with a drop
in harvests. For this and other reasons, chiefly the
impacts on the natural environment, accelerated
harvest has been strongly opposed by environmental
and preservation groups and many other nontimber
groups interested in the management and use of the
National Forests. Thus the rate of harvest on old-
growth stands is a policy issue of wide interest — it is
discussed further in an accompanying technical docu-
ment, “A Recommended Renewable Resource Pro-
gram” — 1980 _update.*3

Fertilization. — The use of fertilizers to accelerate
and improve tree growth has been increasing in recent
years. Most of this activity has been in the Pacific
Northwest and in the South—practically all by
industrial owners. Experience to date suggests that
timber yields can be increased from 5 to 20 percent
with applications of the proper fertilizers on nutrient
deficient soils.

U.S. Department of Agriculture. Forest Service. A recom-
mended renewable resources program — 1980 update. For Serv.
Series FS-346. 540 p. plus appendixes. 1980.

258

Large areas of naturally regenerated forests are overcrowded. This
increases mortality and the time required to produce merchantable
wood.

Drainage and irrigation are other enhancement
actions that have been used in forestry for many
years. On some sites, water control is the most impor-
tant action for the establishment of trees for timber
production.

Harvest practices. — Numerous studies have shown
that an important way to increase future timber
growth is to use harvest practices that return the
leaves and small branches to the soil. This material
contains relatively large amounts of nutrients that
support the next generation of trees. In addition, this
material reduces surface erosion and contributes to
maintaining soil structure. Harvest practices should
also be designed to minimize damage to residual trees
and reduce the volume of unmerchantable tops of
trees and defective trees left on the ground as logging
residues.

Research. — Much can be done to increase timber
growth through more effective use of existing tech-
nology. Investments in intensified management could
be made more effective by expanding the technologi-
cal base for such efforts. More information is needed
about the responses of forest stands of different types,
ages, and sites to intermediate treatments such as
thinning. Better knowledge of spacing control in pre-
commercial thinning and subsequent intermediate
cutting could help increase output of both timber and
nontimber values. Before the most effective tree fer-
tilization can be achieved, more knowledge must be

obtained on the response of trees on various soils,
and the effects of fertilizers on the environment.
Research on genetic improvements in timber growing
should include better methods of progeny testing to
detect natural resistance to insects and diseases.

There are substantial areas where planting costs are
high. The development of lower cost techniques for
site preparation and planting for such areas would
improve returns from forest investments. In many
forest types, development of more effective methods
of timber harvesting, to bring about natural regenera-
tion of desirable timber species, is of key significance
in assuring prompt and low-cost establishment of
new stands and the protection of esthetic or other
nontimber values. Improvement of aerial logging
techniques using skyline systems could increase
timber harvests as well as enhance environmental
values.

Reducing Losses

Reduction of mortality from poor harvesting prac-
tices, wildfire, insects, and diseases can increase net
annual growth. Research can reduce losses by devel-
oping more effective preventive and control tech-
niques and better understanding of fire effects.

Effective fire management. — The largest and most
effective management effort in the United States has
been in the control of forest fires. The results have
been remarkable, with a decline in area burned from
30 to 40 million acres annually at the beginning of the
century to about 5 million acres annually in the
mid-1970’s.

Despite the progress that has taken place, there
appear to be additional opportunities to further
reduce fire losses and costs through development and
use of improved technology in fire prevention, detec-
tion, suppression, presuppression, and fuels man-
agement. These opportunities include developing a
better understanding of ways to prevent fires, improv-
ing detection systems, and the development of tech-
niques for more effective control of fires. Improved
fire suppression systems, particularly on large fires
that characteristically result in greatest fire damage,
could also reduce losses.

Fire losses might also be cut by reducing fuel
accumulation on cutover areas through the develop-
ment of markets for logging residues and/or im-
proved cleanup of cutover areas. Future improve-
ment of techniques for use of prescribed fire to reduce
the build up of flammable debris and litter also could
help reduce the intensity of wildfires and attendant
losses. There is a related need for research on ways of
dispersing and/or minimizing smoke from prescribed
fires to meet acceptable air quality standards.

Better control of insects and diseases. — Insects
and diseases take a heavy toll of timber by killing
trees and by reducing timber growth. Serious losses
are caused by a few major pest species such as the
western bark beetles, southern pine beetle, spruce bud-
worm, gypsy moth, dwarf mistletoes, and root rots
which account for most of the mortality. Other
insects and diseases cause serious but less spectacular
damage by killing shoots and terminals, reducing the
rate of growth, or by stunting, deforming, or degrad-
ing the value of trees and wood products.

The use of integrated pest management systems
against the major forest pests offers the potential to
increase or extend the timber supply in an environ-
mentally acceptable manner. Elements of manage-
ment systems that could reduce insect- and disease-
caused losses include: (1) Silvicultural techniques that
encourage more pest resistant stands; (2) improved
methods of pest control with biological control
agents; (3) selective chemical pesticides which are safe
and environmentally acceptable; and (4) stand hazard
rating systems that identify pest-susceptible trees and
stands.

Economic Opportunities for
Increasing Timber Supplies

The preceding discussion has been concerned with
biological opportunities for increasing timber sup-
plies without consideration of costs and returns. With
expected changes in management costs and product
prices, only part of the biological opportunities can
be expected to yield an acceptable rate of return on
the investments required to put the opportunities into
practice. An ongoing study of the Forest Service and
the Forest Industries Council54 indicates that the
opportunities that would yield 4 percent or more on
the investment, measured in constant dollars, are
large and, if carried out, would in time increase
timber supplies in a major way.

Results from the study show that there are eco-
nomic opportunities for treatment on 168 million
acres of commercial timberland — some 35 percent of
the Nation’s total (table 6.30). With treatment of
these acres, net annual timber growth could be
increased by 12.9 billion cubic feet, a volume roughly
equal to three-fifths of the total net annual growth in
1976. Achieving this growth would require time since
it would take several decades for the effects of most
investments to be realized. The bulk of the opportuni-
ties are for softwoods.

Nearly three-quarters of the treatment opportuni-
ties on an area basis involve reforestation or conver-
sion of existing stands. This category includes regen-

259

eration of nonstocked areas, harvesting mature
stands and regenerating the harvested tracts, and
converting existing stands to more desired species. A
majority of the opportunities, 74 percent, is on farmer
and other private ownerships which collectively con-
tain about 58 percent of the commercial timberland
(fig. 6.7). Most of the remaining opportunities are on
the 14 percent of the commercial timberland in forest
industry ownership. All economic opportunities on
the National Forests are currently scheduled or
planned and are not shown in table 6.30.

As illustrated in table 6.30, there are economic
opportunities for management intensification in all
regions. The opportunities are concentrated in the
southern regions — 53 million acres in the Southeast
and 64 million acres in the South Central. Treatment
of these acres, which include almost two-fifths of the
commercial timberland acreage in the South, would
require investment of $10.1 billion dollars and
increase timber growth by more than 9.2 billion cubic
feet. Net annual growth in the South in 1976 was 10.7
billion cubic feet.

In the Southeast, the opportunities are predomi-
nately for reforestation or conversion on farmer and
other private ownerships. In the South Central
region, there are also large opportunities for reforest-
ation or conversion. In this region, stocking control is
important; it is economical on nearly one-third of the
acres.

54 Dutrow, George F., J. Michael Vasievich, and Merle E. Conk-
in. Economic opportunities for increasing timber supplies in the
United States. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service and
Forest Industries Council. (In process.) In this study, over 400
university, industry, and government foresters in 7 timber supply
regions and 25 individual States selected what they considered
significant economic opportunities to increase timber supplies
through intensified forest management. Although management
opportunities were chosen on the basis of augmenting timber sup-
plies, forestry experts made their selections with three general con-
straints in mind: management actions had to be environmentally
acceptable, financially sound, and incremental to efforts already
scheduled or planned. In preparing the estimates of economic
opportunities, these experts (1) prescribed specific treatments for
existing conditions on commercial timberlands, (2) assigned prob-
able costs of application, (3) estimated increases in timber yields
from each treatment, and (4) outlined existing ranges of stumpage
values. Resource analysts in the Forest Service added acreage
estimates for each identified forest condition in the 25 major
timber producing States. Over 200 investment opportunities were
identified. These opportunities varied by site, physiographic
region, and managerial action, and were consolidated into the two
major types of management opportunities used in this study —
reforestation/conversion and stocking control. All cost and
response data for conversion, regeneration, timber stand improve-
ment, cleaning operations, and release practices for a number of
sites, geographic categories, and species were averaged. All calcula-
tions were based on costs, prices, and interest rates measured in
constant 1967 dollars — adjusted to exclude changes resulting from
inflation or deflation. Future stumpage prices were based on the
equilibrium projections shown in tables 6.27 and 6.29.

260

There are economic opportunities for management intensification
in all regions, but they are concentrated in the South.

In the northern regions (Northeast and North Cen-
tral) there are 35 million acres— 23 percent of the
commercial timberland area—that would yield 4
percent or more on investments in management prac-
tices. These opportunities would require an invest-
ment of about $2.5 billion and increase timber sup-
plies by 1.5 billion cubic feet a year. Such an increase
is about a quarter of the net annual growth in 1976.

In the Northeast region, stocking control is the
largest economic opportunity on an area basis. In the
North Central region, there are substantial oppor-
tunities for investments both in reforestation/ stand
conversion and stocking control practices. As in the
South, the opportunities in the northern regions are
predominately on the farmer and other private
ownerships.

Nearly all of the remaining economic opportunities
for management intensification are on the commer-
cial timberlands on the Pacific Coast. There are
about 8.8 million acres in the Pacific Northwest and
7.6 million in the Pacific Southwest which would
yield more than 4 percent in constant dollars on
investments in various management practices. These
investments, about $2.6 billion in total, would
increase net annual timber growth by nearly 2 billion
cubic feet — about three-fifths of current growth.

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Figure 6.7

Ownership Distribution of Economic Opportunities

for Management Intensification

Total 168 Million Acres

Farmer and Other Private

124

In both Pacific Coast regions, reforestation/stand
conversion is the largest opportunity in terms of
acres, although there are substantial stocking control
opportunities.

The above estimates have some obvious limita-
tions. The estimates are largely based on the judg-
ments of experts drawn from the universities, forest
industries, the Forest Service, and State forestry
agencies. Thus, the estimates may not be an exact
measure of the economic opportunities that exist in
the various regions of the country. Nonetheless, and
after allowances for possible uncertainties, very large
opportunities do exist to invest in timber manage-
ment practices that will yield good rates of return and
result in major increases in the Nation’s timber
supplies.

Prospective Impacts of Implementing
the Economic Opportunities
for Management Intensification

As discussed above, implementation of the eco-
nomic opportunities for management intensification
would have, in time, large impacts on softwood

Forest
Industry
34

Other Public
10

timber supplies and prices. In recognition of this, the
regionally disaggregated economic simulation model
described above was used to estimate future soft-
wood supply and price trends, assuming the eco-
nomic opportunities which would yield 4 percent or
more measured in 1967 dollars were implemented on
private lands.

Because of the changes in projected supplies and
prices resulting from management intensification, it
was necessary to reiterate the analysis several times to
arrive at an equilibrium solution in which the eco-
nomic opportunities for management intensification
were consistent with the projected changes in prices.

The increases in softwood timber supplies that
could be achieved by implementing the economic
opportunities are large enough to meet prospective
increases in demand while at the same time providing
enough timber for large reductions in imports or
increases in exports.

The analysis showed that if management were
intensified to take advantage of all the opportunities
which would yield 4 percent or more (measured in

55 Adams and Haynes, op. cit.

263

1967 dollars), softwood timber supplies would rise to
12.3 billion cubic feet in 2000, some 11 percent above
the base level projection of 11.1 billion cubic feet
shown in table 6.22. By 2030, with more time for
intensified management activities to affect the timber
resource, projected supplies would be 16.1 billion
cubic feet, 31 percent above the base level projection
of 12.3 billion cubic feet. In line with the location of
the economic opportunities shown in table 6.30, the
largest part of the increase in supplies resulting from
management intensification is in the Southeast and
South Central regions.

During the early part of the projection period, soft-
wood stumpage prices with intensified management
would rise substantially, although the rates of
increase are below those shown in table 6.27. Later in
the projection period, as timber supplies increase rel-
ative to the equilibrium projections, stumpage prices
peak and then begin to decline. The peaks occur in
about two decades in the South and four decades in
the West. Softwood stumpage prices in 2030 in all
regions are significantly below the levels attained in
the preceding decades. In the southern regions, for
example, where the supply responses from intensified
management are concentrated, the index of softwood
stumpage prices in 2030 would be close to the trend
levels in 1976.

The lower softwood stumpage prices would be
reflected in product prices. For example, the average
annual rate of increase in softwood lumber prices
over the projection period would be about 1.2 per-
cent, considerably below the 1.7 percent per year that
is projected without intensified management.

The above estimates of the effects of intensified
management have the same limitations as the basic
analysis of the economic opportunities for manage-
ment intensification and the base level and equi-
librium level projections of timber supplies. They do
show, however, that the potential exists to greatly
reduce the adverse social, economic, and environ-
mental impacts of rising relative prices described
above.

The Importance of Forest Ownership

While there are many biological and eonomic op-
portunities to increase timber growth, the owners of
commercial timberland determine the purposes for
which the land will be used and the way in which it
will be managed. There is a broad range of objectives
and financial and technical capabilities among the
millions of owners of commercial timberland. In
addition, there are various legal and institutional
constraints and incentives that affect the way in

264

which different owners manage and use their land
and timber resources. Together, these considerations
determine the extent to which the opportunities to
increase timber growth have been and will be
realized.

There are some common characteristics among the
major commercial timberland ownerships. The Na-
tional Forests and other public ownerships must rely
on appropriations from Congress and other legisla-
tive bodies and are managed for a variety of pur-
poses, some of which constrain timber production.
Forest industry ownerships, on the other hand, are
used primarily to supply timber for wood-using
plants; and investments in timber management activi-
ties are strongly influenced by economic criteria.
Most of the farmer and other private ownerships fall
somewhere in between, although they cover the full
range from timber production only, to exclusive use
for recreation or other nontimber purposes.

Of the constraints facing farmers and other private
owners of commercial timberland, perhaps the most
important relate to capital and investment incentives.
The available information indicates that many of the
farmer and other private owners lack the capital for
making the investments necessary for most manage-
ment practices. Further, such investments are not
attractive to many owners who do have the capital
because of their short planning horizons, lack of
knowledge about the opportunities, or the existence
of other investment options which they perceive to be
better than those in timber management.

Farmers and other private forest owners have many different
objectives — they range from timber production only to exclusive
use for recreation or other purposes not compatible with timber
production. But these ownerships are the key to meeting future
timber demands.

->.

JOHN E,NEAL |

Two other factors affect the management of the
farmer and other private ownerships for timber pro-
duction. One is the risk and uncertainty due to the
inherent susceptibility of timber to fire, disease, and
insects, and the long periods for which timber must
be held until it is merchantable. The other is the
widespread lack of knowledge by farmer and other
private owners regarding timber management
practices.

These problems have long been recognized as a
major impediment to increasing timber supplies on
the farmer and other private ownerships. But what
has not been adequately recognized is that many of
the benefits of the investments in increasing timber
supplies accrue to the society in general in the form of
lower prices for stumpage and timber products.
Lower prices reduce the cost to consumers of goods
such as houses and furniture; the environmental pol-
lution associated with use of substitute materials,
such as steel and plastics; dependence on foreign
sources of supply; and the rate of use of nonrenew-
able resources.

These broad economic, social, and environmental
benefits, and the likelihood that even direct benefits,
such as income from timber sales, will not accrue to
current owners because of short tenure or life expec-
tancy, suggest two things. First, there is a strong justi-
fication for publicly supported cost sharing and tech-
nical assistance programs. Second, existing economic
opportunities for management intensification on the
farmer and other private ownerships are not likely to
be realized in any substantive way without such
programs.

There are also important constraints on public
ownerships. In recent decades, the commercial tim-
berlands in these ownerships have been increasingly
managed for multiple purposes; i.e., for wildlife, out-
door recreation, watershed protection, and forage
production, along with timber. More recently, wide-
spread public concern about the natural environment
has led to management practices that, while protect-
ing the environment, reduce timber production and
increase production costs.

In the future, there undoubtedly will be increasing
emphasis on multiple-use management and protec-
tion of the environment on the public lands, and toa
lesser but significant degree on private lands, particu-
larly those in large ownerships. Various modifications
of forestry practices may be necessary, especially on
public lands, to insure that intensification of timber
management does not seriously impair the environ-
ment or damage nontimber uses. Such modifications
will be a recognition of the environmental and
multiple-use impacts of timber management.

Environmental and Multiple-Use
Impacts of Intensified Management

Timber growing and harvesting practices (such as
thinning, timber stand improvement, reforestation,
prescribed burning, and fertilization and associated
timber cutting, road construction, slash burning, or
other disturbances) do have important impacts on
other uses and the forest environment. It is difficult to
generalize about the net impacts. Conditions often
vary widely, knowledge of specific impacts is gener-
ally lacking, and changes may be offsetting.

Clearly, however, management practices and espe-
cially timber harvesting change the vegetative cover.
The change can vary depending on the amount of
vegetation removed, the length of time required to
establish the succeeding vegetation, and the kind of
vegetation established.

Soils are affected by vegetation removal, and the
associated physical disturbances can cause soil ero-
sion, mass soil movement, and soil compaction. Prac-
tices such as slash burning and the removal of
branches and leaves can significantly reduce nutrients
and damage micro-organisms.

Habitats for some kinds of wildlife are improved
with thinnings and other measures that open the
forest canopy and increase supplies of food plants.
Conversion of brush fields, or stands of inferior qual-
ity, by site preparation and planting may damage
habitat for some species, particularly in plantations
where complete forest canopies develop. Fish can be
adversely affected by practices that increase water
temperatures and sedimentation and reduce dissolved
oxygen.

Access for hunting and fishing and some other
recreation travel is usually improved with road con-
struction for logging and other forestry operations.
However, adverse recreational impacts also are
common as in cases where esthetic qualities of forest
areas for recreational viewing, hiking, or camping are
reduced by various management practices, especially
clearcutting. In addition, man-caused fires are likely
to increase with greater access to the forest. Such
fires, along with controlled burning, can significantly
add to air pollution.

Management practices such as cutting and thinning
which create openings in the forest will result in
increases in the amount of forage for domestic live-
stock and grazing wildlife species. As the forest
regenerates and seedlings grow into saplings and then
into trees, the amount of forage gradually declines.
As a result, in closed forests, which are characteristic
of much of the commercial timberland area, forage is
largely limited to borders and openings. Practices
that favor open stands will result in forage produc-
tion throughout the life of the stand.

265

Most management practices affect the esthetics or
the beauty of forested areas. Many practices, espe-
cially clearcutting and road building, produce effects
which are generally considered to be undesirable.
However, beauty is subjective—to some persons
clearcuts create desirable variety in unbroken forests
and provide openings for successional flowering
plants which may be of special appeal. Openings also
create desirable habitat for many species of wildlife
and thus contribute to the pleasures of birdwatchers
and hunters. Roads provide access for outdoor
recreationists. Associated openings are frequently
sought for parking space and campsites.

For many people, the most important effect of
timber management activities is on wood supplies.
About 5 percent of all employment, much of it in
rural areas where other employment opportunities
are limited, originates in timber-based economic
activity. In one form or another —as housing, furni-
ture, containers, writing paper, newspapers and
books, and hundreds of other items — products made
from trees affect the quality of life for everyone,
including those persons who may never have an
opportunity to enjoy the natural beauty of a forest or
participate in the various forms of forest-based out-
door recreation.

From the above discussion, it is clear that timber
management activities have important effects on the

In one form or another, timber from the Nation’s forests affects the
quality of life for everyone.

266

forest environment, the use of forest land for various
purposes, and the quality of life. Also, it is clear that
the protection of the environment and the use of
forest land for purposes such as grazing, outdoor
recreation, and wildlife and fish habitat, will have
important effects on timber management activities
and timber production. Such use may limit harvest-
ing and many treatment practices to relatively small
areas and require cleanup of thinning and logging
slash. Protection of streams for fish and water values
may require that cutting be restricted along streams.
Leaving uncut areas for animal escape and cover may
be necessary to maintain desired animal populations.
Programs for salvage of dead and dying trees may
have to be modified in some areas, and patches of
timber left to protect food supplies and nesting sites
for certain animals and birds.

In making the projections of timber supplies and
demand discussed above, the potential impacts of the
protection of the environment and multiple-use have
been taken into account insofar as possible. It is too
early to discern, in any definitive way, the changes
that will take place over the next five decades and
overall impacts on such things as timber growth and
mortality. About all that can be done at this time, and
particularly with regard to private lands, is to recog-
nize what is taking place, and to allow for it ona
judgmental basis in making projections.

Extending Timber Supplies Through
Improved Utilization and Research

In addition to the opportunities for increasing
timber supplies through management intensification,
there are opportunities for extending supplies through
improved utilization. These opportunities include
increased use of certain kinds of residues, additions to
timber harvest, increasing product yields through
more efficient processing techniques, and extending
use through more efficient construction and manu-
facturing practices.

There have been significant advances in technology
for logging, wood processing, and the use of wood
products in recent decades. The demand and supply
projections in this chapter are predicated upon con-
tinued improvements in these areas. Nevertheless, the
rate of progress could be accelerated — there is a
large volume of timber and residues that have usable
potential.

In 1976, for example, about 1.4 billion cubic feet of
residues from growing stock was left unutilized on
logging areas. Perhaps two to four times as much
volume was left in residual tops and branches, rough
and rotten trees, small stems and other unused mate-

rial on harvest sites. These estimates exclude stumps
and roots, which are potentially an economic resource
in certain areas.

Unsalvaged mortality from suppression, insects,
disease, fire, and other destructive agents totaled an
additional 4 billion cubic feet. This included | billion
cubic feet of unsalvaged mortality on National
Forests, most of which occurred in the West.

As a result of accumulated mortality, there was
about 14 billion cubic feet of salvable dead timber,
largely in western softwoods, in 1977. The majority of
this dead timber was on National Forests. As has
been indicated, nearly all of the mortality on the
National Forests occurred in areas that lack roads
and are inaccessible for trucks and tractors. The dead
trees are also usually scattered over large acreages.

In addition to salvable dead, the timber inventory
includes 23.5 billion cubic feet of rotten trees and 43.3
billion cubic feet of rough trees. The rough and rotten
inventory is mainly composed of hardwood trees.
These rough and rotten trees are also scattered over
large acreages and potential uses are largely limited to
those where quality is not an important consideration.

Unused wood residuals at primary manufacturing
plants in the United States amounted to about 0.5
billion cubic feet in 1976—4 percent of the wood

input (fig. 6.8). The decline was mainly due to a large
rise in use of sawmill and veneer mill residuals in pulp
and particleboard production. Increased use of wood
residuals for fuel and of veneer cores for lumber also
contributed to the reduction in waste. The remaining
primary plant residues may be close to a practical
minimum. There will probably always be some
residues at primary manufacturing plants because of
the small volumes generated or location relative to
consuming plants.

Urban wood wastes constitute a substantial solid-
waste disposal problem and a potential source of
increased product supply. The major categories of
such wastes are waste paper; solid wood product
residues from building construction, building demoli-
tion, and used pallets, crates, and dunnage; and
urban tree removals. A recent estimate of annual
formation of such wastes is as follows:

Waste paper 45 million tons
Waste solid wood products 14 million tons
Urban tree removals 3 million tons

Recycling and fuel uses consume from 20 to 30
percent of the urban waste paper annually. Salvage
for products or fuel probably accounts for about one-

There are still large volumes of wood left after harvest in some areas, and particularly in the old growth forests of the West. Most of this
material is low quality and suitable only for the production of fiber products or use as fuel.

Figure 6.8

Timber Supply to and Output from Domestic Mills, 1976

Output from Domestic Mills

Plywood and Veneer

Pulpwood — Domestic Mills 6.1

Chip Exports | 3

Particleboard | £3

Other Industrial

Fuelwood 1.4

Residues

fourth of the solid wood waste and one-seventh of the
urban tree removals. The remainder of this material is
disposed of in landfills, dumps, or incinerators.

Possibilities for Improvement

Some improvement in utilization of dead or defec-
tive timber on National Forests has been made possi-
ble by establishment of a fund, pursuant to the
National Forest Management Act of 1976, which can
be used to pay Forest Service costs of preparing and
administering salvage timber sales. However, in most
cases, current market prices for such materials are
lower than the costs of harvest and transport to mills.
Thus, a major need is for techniques and equipment
that will reduce these costs. Important progress is
now underway on mechanized systems that allow
rapid collection — and in some cases, onsite chipping
for fuel or pulpwood — of whole stems or trees. Im-
provements are also being made in ue of aerial systems

268

of logging to reduce road construction needs and to
permit harvesting of timber on areas where environ-
mental impacts would otherwise be unacceptable.

Another opportunity to reduce waste in timber
harvest is through quality control in felling and buck-
ing. Studies both in the United States and Canada
have shown that such control could add several per-
cent to sawlog and veneer log output.

Improved lumber and plywood processing tech-
nology can extend timber supplies substantially. Par-
ticularly important is the need for cost-effective sys-
tems of manufacturing lumber and plywood from
small-diameter logs and short logs. Promising ap-
proaches include high-speed electronic scanning and
automated control systems, gluing techniques to pro-
duce wide-width or long-length products equivalent
to lumber sawn from large logs, and automated grad-
ing systems. Another developing possibility is tech-
niques for producing and marketing construction
lumber from hardwoods such as yellow-poplar and
aspen.

Quality control in sawmilling, lumber drying, and
remanufacturing offers immediate opportunities for
increased product supply. Studies have shown that
many sawmills can improve yield by as much as 10
percent through increased attention to equipment
maintenance and machine settings. Careful applica-
tion of existing technology for drying can greatly
reduce lumber degrade and net costs. Techniques for
calculating least-cost lumber grades for furniture
parts and other manufactured items can reduce costs
and the demands for high-grade lumber.

Technology for manufacturing panel products —
such as particleboard, medium-density fiberboard,
and composite veneer-particle panels —has ex-
panded greatly in recent years. Such technology
offers large possibilities for use of residues, low qual-
ity trees, and small logs. Both hardwood and soft-
wood species may be used in many panel products.
Primary obstacles to increased industrial develop-
ment are high capital and adhesives costs. Panel prod-
ucts for roof sheathing and subflooring typically must
be made with phenolic resins derived from high-cost
petrochemicals. Thus, techniques for reducing the
amount of phenolic resin required per ton of product
or for making lower-cost adhesives would enhance
the potential of these resource-efficient materials.

In the pulp and paper industry, there are many
opportunities for expanding the resource base and for
increasing product yields. Continued development of
techniques for harvesting and pulping whole-tree
chips could greatly increase per-acre harvest and
reduce logging residue problems. Improvements in
paper-making techniques would allow increased use
of pulp from high-yield processes and from hard-
woods. Recycling of waste paper and paperboard is
much more prevalent in Japan and some European
nations than in the United States. Chief impediments
to recycling are problems with contaminants, such as
glue, and losses in strength during reprocessing.

Reduction of fuels and power costs in forest indus-
tries would lower per-unit manufacturing costs and
thus increase economic supply of products. Possibili-
ties include development of energy-efficient process-
ing methods and expanded use of wood and bark
fuels. Many mills have turned to fuels from manufac-
turing residuals, and a few are harvesting low-grade
roundwood specifically for energy. Improvement in
techniques for harvesting, processing, and storing
fuelwood could help expand such use. Another pos-
sibility, now applied in a few areas, is distribution of
surplus stream and electricity from forest products
mills through local utilities. This arrangement can
reduce the net cost of energy to the mills.

Improved engineering and construction practices
could conserve wood materials in houses and other
structures. It has been estimated that such improve-
ments could save 10 to 20 percent of the dimension
lumber required in a conventional house without loss
in performance. Proper use of preservative-treated
products, insecticides to control termites, and careful
application of water-repellants could greatly extend
the useful life of most wood products and reduce
demand on timber resources. Major deterrents to the
conservation of wood in building construction and
maintenance are: the inadequacy of engineering per-
formance criteria for products and structures, the
fragmented nature of the building industry, and insti-
tutional problems involving the many national, State,
and local authorities that govern building codes.

Reduction of Demand for Timber Products

Beyond the opportunities to increase and extend
timber supplies, there is another set of opportunities
—those which will reduce demand for timber prod-
ucts. Although there are numerous opportunities to
reduce demand, nearly all the possibilities, short of
rationing or other authoritarian controls, seem to
involve the use of substitute materials or increases in
imports. Such shifts would have the same undesirable
economic, social, and environmental effects as those
resulting from rising relative prices described above.
However, there does seem to be one way or oppor-
tunity to reduce demand which would have no
adverse impacts — the proper maintenance and reno-
vation of existing structures. This possibility, if prac-
ticed on a more extensive scale, could significantly
lower demands for timber, and other materials as
well, below the volumes needed for new replacement
structures.

The General Role of Research

The above discussion has been concerned in part
with the role of research in increasing and extending
timber supplies. Through research, it may also be
possible to develop ways of integrating and balancing
multiple-uses of forest land and reducing the conflicts
which are likely to result from the rapidly expanding
demands for timber, wildlife, grazing, outdoor recre-
ation, water, and other forest-related goods and
services.

269

Finally, research has a general role in developing
the facts of analyses necessary for the formulation
and guidance of timber policies and programs — the
basic purpose of this Assessment. First, there is a
need to intensify the collection of basic data on the
timber resource so that it is current and statistically
reliable for relatively small resource planning areas
such as a county or river basin. Second is the need to
expand the collection of data to include information

270

on the physical responses of forest land and timber
stands to various management practices and the
interactions on other resources such as water and
wildlife. Third, there is a need to further explore the
economic, social, and environmental implications of
the growing scarcity of timber. This is a basic need —
it is the societal basis for changing policies and pro-
grams. The results of this research are thus likely to
have major impacts on the future course of forestry in
the country.

Chapter 7. — Water

This chapter presents information on: (1) Recent
trends in water use, both for consumptive and non-
consumptive uses, with projections to 2030; (2) the
current and prospective water supply situation; (3)
comparisons of projected consumptive water de-
mands with supplies, and identification of the loca-
tion and significance of likely quantity imbalances;
(4) identification of major water quality problems;
and (5) opportunities for dealing with quantity and
quality problems through forest and range land
management.

Responsibility for national water assessments was
assigned to the U.S. Water Resources Council by
the Water Resources Planning Act of 1965. Much
of the information in this section has been con-
densed from the Council’s recently completed study
“The 1975 Assessment of Water and Related Land
Resources.”! For the assessment of water quality,
the primary source was “The National Water Quality
Inventory Report for 1976.2 In addition, the Forest
Service has made a specific attempt to assess water
quality from forest and range land.

A number of other studies contain information
on the Nation’s water resources which supplement
the above work, including:

National Water Commission. Water policies
for the future, final report to the President
and to Congress. U.S. Gov. Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 579 p. 1973.

U.S. Water Resources Council. Water re-
gions and subregions for the national assess-
ment of water and related land resources.
Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C.
75 p. 1970.

United States Environmental Protection
Agency. National water quality inventory,
1976 Report to Congress. U.S. Gov. Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 1976.

Anderson, H. W., M. D. Hoover, and K. G.
Reinhart. Forest and water: Effects of forest
management on floods, sedimentation, and
water supply. U.S. Department of Agricul-
ture, Forest Service, General Tech. Rep.
PSW-18. Pacific Southwest For. and Range
Exp. Stn., Berkeley, Calif. 1976.

'U.S. Water Resources Council. The 1975 assessment of water
and related land resources. (In process.)

2U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. National water quality
inventory, 1976 Report to Congress. U.S. Gov. Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 1977.

Overall, the United States has an abundant supply
of water. In 1975, the Nation consumptively used
about 106.6 billion gallons a day, while average
supplies via natural runoff averaged about 1,400
billion gallons a day. Unfortunately, these averages
do not adequately portray the situation. While an
abundance of water occurs in many sections of the
country, there are some sections where the need
greatly exceeds the supply, the quality of available
water is very poor, or both.

In addition, water is subject to multiple uses in
the sense that the water in a stream or lake may be
used for recreation, support for aquatic life, for
residential and commercial purposes, and for irri-
gation. The same water may be used several times
for different purposes as it flows from the head-
waters of a major river to the ocean. To a sub-
stantial degree, the reuse of water depends on the
ability to maintain high-quality water in streams
and lakes.

Basically, then, water problems exist because water
generally is not a highly transportable commodity.
The cost of transporting water outside natural water-
sheds is usually prohibitive for all but the highest
value uses. As a result, an overall nationwide analysis
of water supplies and demands can be misleading.
Most water problems can be defined only on a
regional or even local basis. In recognition of this
fact, projections of water demands and supplies
are presented for regions that represent geographic
areas with common water management situations.
The geographic delineation used in this study is
shown in figure 7.1. The water resource regions are
listed on the map margin as New England, Middle
Atlantic,. . . ., Caribbean, and are delineated by
solid lines and numbered (01), (02), etc. The second
order delineations are subdivisions of the first, and
are called subregions. These subregions on figure
7.1, delineated by dotted lines, are groups of counties
that closely approximate hydrologic areas which
could be (1) a river system or systems, (2) a reach
of a river or its tributaries, (3) a closed basin,
or (4) a group of rivers forming a coastal drainage
area.

The Demand for Water

Estimates of water withdrawal and consumptive
uses are presented here by water resource region.
Then, to facilitate analysis of problems at a more
meaningful geographic level, water supply and con-
sumptive uses (shown as depletion rates) are pre-
sented at the subregion level. These subregions are
then aggregated into the Resources Planning Act
Regions used in this document to facilitate the de-
velopment of the Forest Service program.

PAS

Figure 7.1 :

Water Resource Regions

Regions

Aggregated
seceeeceoseees Subareas

New England, 101-106
Middle Atlantic, 201-206

South Atlantic-Gulf, 301-309
Great Lakes, 401-408

Ohio, 501-507

Tennessee, 601-602

Upper Mississippi, 761-705
Lower Mississippi, 801-803
Souris-Red-Rainy, 901

Missouri, 1001-1011
Arkansas-White-Red, 1101-1107

Texas-Gulf, 1201-1205
Rio Grande, 1301-1305
Upper Colorado, 1401-1403
Lower Colorado, 1501-1503
Great Basin, 1601-1604
Columbia-North Pacific, 1701-1707
California-South Pacific, 1801-1807
Alaska, 1901

Hawaii, 2001-2004

Caribbean, 2101-2102

Three categories of water use are generally recog-
nized: (1) Withdrawal use which removes water from
its natural course, uses it, and then returns it to
a stream or underground source where it is avail-
able for reuse; (2) consumptive use which represents
that portion of the withdrawal consumed through
evaporation, transportation, or by discharge to irre-
trievable locations: and (3) instream uses such as
boating, fishing, navigation, and hydroelectric power.

The 1975 National Water Assessment prepared by
the Water Resources Council contains estimates of
withdrawals, consumptive use, and, to some extent,
instream uses for 1975, with projections for 1985
and 2000.3

In this report, the projections for water demand
beyond 2000 have been made by the Forest Service
by extending the general trends shown in the pro-
jections by the Water Resources Council. The

3U.S. Water Resources Council. The 1975 assessment of water
and related land resources, op. cit.

274

estimates for 1980 and 1990 are interpolated from
the projections of the Council.

Water Withdrawals by Major Use

Freshwater withdrawals were approximately 339
billion gallons a day in 1975 (table 7.1). Irrigation
was the largest withdrawal use, accounting for 47
percent of the total (fig. 7.2). Withdrawals for steam
electric cooling were second in importance (26 per-
cent). Another 15 percent was used in manufacturing.
Domestic use and mineral extraction activities
accounted for most of the remainder.

Demand for water withdrawals is projected to
decrease to about 306 billion gallons per day by
the year 2000. Most of the projected decrease should
occur before 2000 and is concentrated in manufac-
turing, steam electric cooling, and irrigation. These
declines are expected because of increased emphasis
on water conservation and the adoption of tech-

Table 7.1 — Fresh water withdrawals in the United States in 1975, by major use, with projections
of demand to 2030

(Million gallons a day)

158,743 166,252 160,710 153,846 155,121 151,515
88,916 94,858 87,602 79,492 78,544 74,508

Major use

148,518
70,472

Irrigation
Steam electric

Manufacturing 51,222 23,687 22,345 19,669 19,009 22,771 26,392
Domestic and
commercial:
Central
(municipal) 36,032
Noncentral 2,868
Commercial 8,181
Minerals 16,465
Livestock 3,211
Public lands and other 3,200

Total 315,339

338,500 330,375 318,615 306,397 311,674 313,053

Source: data for 1975, 1985 and 2000 from U.S. Water Resources Council. The estimates derived by interpolating or extending the trends shown by the projec-
Nation’s Water Resources 1975-2000. Data for all other years are Forest Service tions of the Water Resources Council.
Figure 7.2

Water Withdrawals by Major Use in the United States, 1975

Minerals

Livestock
Public Land, Etc.

Manufacturing

Steam
Electric Cooling

Pa fe)

nology that will permit more water recycling to
meet environmental standards. Projected manufac-
turing withdrawals show the greatest rate of decline
in the 1975-2000 period, falling 61 percent from
51 billion gallons per day to 19.7 billion gallons
per day; after 2000 some increase is expected.

Contrary to the overall declining trend, withdrawals
for domestic and commercial uses and mineral extrac-
tion are expected to increase moderately.

Water Withdrawals by Region and Use

Total water withdrawals by water resource region
are shown in table 7.2. Current and projected with-
drawals for each region reflect both the relative
availability of water and the uses that are most
common in the region. For example, irrigation is
the major withdrawal use nationwide, but it is of
little importance in humid regions where precipitation
is distributed throughout the year, such as in the
New England and Ohio regions. Similarly, with-
drawals for steam electric cooling are relatively low in
the Columbia-North Pacific region, which is: heavily
dependent on hydroelectric power at the present time.

Total withdrawals are now greatest in the Great
Lakes, Ohio, Missouri, Columbia-North Pacific, and
California-South regions. For the first two regions,
totals reflect the importance of fossil-fueled steam
generating systems and a concentration of manufac-
turing activities (tables 7.4 and 7.5); for the other
three regions, withdrawals for irrigation are by far the
most important (table 7.3). The latter three regions
together account for more than 60 percent of all
irrigation withdrawals in the United States.

Withdrawals for irrigation are expected to continue
to increase over the next 10 years, but eventually
will decline because of the adoption of water-
conserving techniques such as drip irrigation and
channel lining. For the Missouri, California, and
Pacific Northwest regions, the proportion of total
withdrawals is expected to increase from 60 percent
to 66 percent, but the overall regional pattern of
water use for irrigation is not likely to change
drastically.

Steam electric generation currently accounts for
about 22 percent of total water withdrawals (fig.
7.2). This rate will probably decrease to about 19
percent or 80 billion gallons a day by 2000. The
largest withdrawals for power cooling in 1975 were
in the South Atlantic Gulf, Great Lakes, and Ohio
regions, which accounted for about 65 percent of
the withdrawals for that purpose (table 7.4).

Because of the expected adoption of new cooling
technology, several regions including the Great Lakes
and Ohio will experience significant declines in with-

276

drawal use in future years. Significant withdrawal
increases are expected in the Lower Mississippi and
Texas Gulf regions.

Water withdrawals for manufacturing will decline
from 51 to 20 billion gallons a day from 1975
to 2000, largely because of increased use of recycling
in response to water pollution regulations (table 7.4).
The Great Lakes and Ohio regions were the largest
users of manufacturing water in 1975 (47 percent),
but their part in manufacturing withdrawals is
expected to decline to about 24 percent of the total
in 2000, with the South Atlantic Gulf and Texas
Gulf becoming more significant (table 7.5).

Domestic and commercial use was the next largest
withdrawal user, accounting for 8 percent of all
withdrawals in 1975 (tables 7.6 through 7.8). This
use is expected to increase to about 12 percent
of the total by 2000, surpassing manufacturing as
the third largest withdrawal user. The regional dis-
tribution of residential and commercial users is related
closely to population density, which is not expected
to change much in the next 25 years.

The remaining uses, including minerals production
and public land administration, account for less than
3 percent of total withdrawal use. Although they are
not the major users in any water resource region,
their current and potential importance in many local
areas may be great, especially where water supplies
are limited.

Consumptive Use of Water

Much of the water’ withdrawn for most uses is
returned to a water source for reuse. For example,
of 51 billion gallons a day withdrawn for manu-
facturing in 1975, about 45 million gallons a day
were returned for reuse. On the other hand, irri-
gation consumes, through transpiration and evapor-
ation, over one-half (54 percent in 1975) of the total
water withdrawn for that purpose. Consumptive use
of water is generally considered more critical than
water withdrawal because it represents an absolute
reduction in available water supply. Once used con-
sumptively, water is not available for reuse until
it completes its passage through the phases of the
hydrologic cycle to return to earth in some form
of precipitation.

The greatest consumptive use of water in the United
States in 1975 was for irrigation which accounted
for 81 percent of the total (table 7.9 and fig. 7.3).
Manufacturing and domestic central supplies ac-
counted for another 10 percent, with the remaining
9 percent about equally divided among the other
uses. Trends in consumptive use are considerably
different from those for withdrawals. Without excep-
tion, all consumptive uses are expected to increase in

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283

Table 7.9 — Fresh water consumption in the United States in 1975, by major use, with projections
of demand to 2030

(Million gallons a day)

Major use

Irrigation
Steam electric
Manufacturing
Domestic and
commercial:
Central
Noncentral
Commercial
Minerals
Livestock
Public lands and other

Total

Source: See source note table 7.1

future years. The rates of growth are expected to be
largest in manufacturing (142 percent from 1975 to
2000) and steam electric cooling (643 percent).
Greater use of recycling techniques, while reducing
overall withdrawals, will increase consumptive use.
For example, the use of cooling towers at steam
electric plants will cause greater loss to evaporation
than does once-through cooling.

Consumption by Region and Use

Major differences appear among water resource
regions in the amount of water used consumptively.
As expected, regions that irrigate heavily are also
large water consumers. The largest consumptive use
— 27 billion gallons a day — was in the California
region, which accounts for about 25 percent of the
total national consumptive use (table 7.3). The Miss-
ouri Basin was the second largest water consumer
with 15.5 billion gallons a day, or 15 percent, and
the Pacific-Northwest and Texas Gulf regions each
accounted for more than 11 billion gallons a day,
or about 11 percent. Total consumptive use is pro-
jected to increase to 135 billion gallons a day (26
percent) by the year 2000, but the interregional
proportions are not likely to change very much.

The concentration of heavy consumptive use in
the California, Missouri, Pacific-Northwest, Texas
Gulf, and the Arkansas-White-Red regions reflects
the large demands for irrigation water. For example,
91 percent of the consumptive use of 27 billion
gallons a day in the California region is for irri-
gation—the proportion is 92 percent for the Missouri
region.

284

106,591 120,545 125,065 135,080 146,974 160,620

99,972
21,373
25,117

8,550
1,658
1,667
5,203
3,316
2,326

169,182

Overall, consumptive use for irrigation is projected
to increase by about 7 percent from 1975 to 2000
(table 7.3). The most significant change is expected
in the Texas Gulf region, where consumptive use
will decline by 34 percent from 9.3 to 6.1 billion
gallons a day because ground water mining is
depleting the water table and reducing the amount
of ground water available. This suggests a potential
decline in agricultural use in the High Plains area
unless water supplies are increased or some other
form of technology is adopted to bring consumptive
uses in line with longrun annual supplies. The Rio
Grande, Lower Colorado, and Great Basin will all
show modest decreases in ground water consumed.

Water consumed in manufacturing processes is
highest in the Great Lakes region, which accounts
for nearly a quarter of manufacturing use. The
Ohio, Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic Gulf, and
Texas Gulf regions are also major consumers of
manufacturing water. Consumptive use in manufac-
turing is projected to more than double by 2000
(table 7.5). This growth will likely be shared by
nearly all regions, but those mentioned above will
continue to be most important.

The most dramatic increase in water consumption
will be in steam electric cooling, which is projected
to increase from 1.4 billion gallons a day to 10.5
billion gallons a day by 2000. Consumptive use will
increase in almost every region, but most significantly
in the South Atlantic Gulf and the Lake States
(table 7.4). This is almost entirely due to the shift
from once-through cooling to cooling towers to
minimize thermal pollution. Other types of consump-
tive use are projected to increase, but at a slower
rate.

Irrigation is the largest use of water, accounting for more than 80 percent of total consumption.

Figure 7.3

Water Consumption by Major Use in the United States, 1975

Domestic

om Manufacturing

Livestock
Steam Electric
Minerals
Public Lands

285

Instream Uses

Not all uses require removing water from its source.
Many uses depend on the amount of water that
remains in the water course itself. These include
hydroelectric power generation, navigation, water-
based recreation, and flow requirement for aquatic
habitat.

In 1975, hydroelectric power supplied approx-
imately 15 percent of the total national electric power
production. Conventional hydroelectric plants are
projected to generate only about 6 percent more
electricity in 2000 than in 1975. However, as alter-
native costs increase, hydropower generation may be
viewed with increasing interest. Hydroelectric power
plants produce power without consuming fossil fuels,
without polluting water or air, and without creating
possible radiation hazards. These plants have long
lives, low operating costs, and low outage rates.
Two disadvantages are the high construction costs
and potential interruption of free-flowing streams.

The Nation’s rivers and lakes have served as avenues
for public and commodity transportation from the
time of the earliest inhabitants. Since about 1770,
the extent and capacity of inland and intracoastal
waterway systems have continually increased to the

point where they now include more than 25,000
miles of navigable channels, canals, and reservoirs.

Total domestic waterborne traffic increased from
829 million tons in 1965 to about 1,000 million
tons in 1974. By the year 2000, about 1,500 million
tons are expected. Almost all of this will be bulk
goods, such as coal, grain, crude oil, and other
petroleum products. In 1974, waterborne commerce
was about one-fourth of the total intercity freight
measured in ton miles.

Streamflows are also needed to support outdoor
recreation activities and fishery habitats for commer-
cial fisheries. A discussion of flows and flow require-
ments at the national, or even regional level, tends
to obscure water problems that might surface from
analyses in local areas. For example, it has been
computed that nationally flows of 1,040 billion
gallons a day would be ideal to support fishery
requirements. The average national flow is 1,242
billion gallons a day. Unfortunately, not all regions
and subregions share equally in the average annual
flow.

In a subsequent section of this chapter, the ade-
quacy of supplies to support fisheries will be analyzed
in terms of a depletion analysis. The criteria for this
analysis will also be discussed.

Bulky products such as oil, coal, wheat, and chemicals are efficiently transported on waterways.

286

The Supply of Water

In an average year, about 40 trillion gallons a day
pass over the conterminous United States as water
vapor. About 10 percent is precipitation in the form
of rain, snow, sleet, or hail, which equals an average
annual amount of 30 inches nationwide. About two-
thirds of this precipitation returns to the atmos-
phere via evaporation and transpiration. The re-
maining 1.4 trillion gallons a day of precipitation
(average of 9 inches) flows to the ocean or across
U.S. boundaries, accumulates in storage, or is con-
sumptively used.

Precipitation is enough to meet current and pro-
jected needs if it were available for use where and
when needed. However, there is wide variation in
precipitation by region. The normal annual precip-
itation over the contiguous States generally ranges
from an average of less than 4 inches in parts of
Great Basin and Lower Colorado regions to more
than 200 inches in coastal areas of the Columbia-
North Pacific Region (fig. 7.4). There are specific
localities that even fall outside this range. About 26
inches of the total of 30 is from rainfall; the re-
mainder is snow or other frozen form. The area east
of the Mississippi River averages about 18 inches. In
the Alaska region, the normal annual precipitation
ranges from about 5 inches in the extreme north to
more than 200 inches in the southeast, with a State
average of about 20 inches.

A large portion of the precipitation in the United
States falls on forested land because forests are
typically located at higher elevations, initially cap-
turing and gradually releasing water to downstream
areas. Also, forest and range vegetal cover usually
provides excellent protection for streams because it
maintains good water quality and helps stabilize
flow.

Just as precipitation varies greatly from place to
place, season to season, and year to year, so do runoff
and streamflow. For example, even in a normal
year, the ratio of maximum flows to minimum flows
may be 500 to 1 or greater. As a result, adverse
impacts of drought are intensified, especially in
areas that use a high proportion of normal stream-
flow or where storage is minimal. The range in
variation in streamflow in the humid East tends to be
less from year to year and from month to month than
in other regions. Average annual runoff based on
data from 1931 to 1960 is shown in figure 7.5. More
than 60 percent of the annual runoff originates on
forest lands, which comprise about one-third of the
total land area. In the 11 Western States, more than
90 percent of the usable precipitation originates on
high-altitude watersheds, which are typically forested.

In 1975, the conterminous United States withdrew
a total of 393 billion gallons per day from surface and
ground sources. Of this total, 254 billion was from
fresh surface water sources, 58 billion from saline
surface sources, and 81 billion gallons per day from
ground water. Surface and ground sources are gen-
erally highly interactive; consequently, significant
impacts upon one is likely to affect the other.

Water supply problems stem from the high varia-
tion in both the geographic and temporal distribution
of water. Some regions have an abundance of water,
while others receive very little precipitation. Still
others have problems because precipitation largely
occurs during certain seasons so that other parts
of the year are very dry. Only a small portion of
the potential 1.4 trillion gallons a day can be devel-
oped for intensive use.

The temporal problem can often be reduced
through storage, either in reservoirs or as ground
water. Total reservoir storage capacity in the United
States is about 700 million acre-feet; about 35 percent
of this capacity was built for flood control and the
remainder for water supply, hydropower, recreation,
fire protection, and esthetics value.

It is estimated that 100 billion acre-feet of ground
water is within 2,500 feet of the surface in the con-
terminous United States, about 50 percent of this
volume is economically and environmentally avail-
able. This amount is nearly 150 times the amount
of our total reservoir storage capacity, or more than
the Mississippi River has discharged into the Gulf
of Mexico over the last 200 years. About half of
the country is underlain by rock material that could
yield at least 50 gallons per minute from wells.

Ground water also provides the base flow of
streams; in some regions, ground water flows pro-
vide streams with a continuity of flow that they would
not otherwise possess. The water supply information
presented in the section on surface water includes
considerable water that enters from ground water
aquifers. Part of this ground water resource does
not get into surface water supply naturally, and can
be developed only by drilling.

The Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains contain the
largest reserve of ground water in the Nation (fig.
7.6). Present pumpage is but a small fraction of
the supplies that could be developed. Even so, salt-
water encroachment along the Gulf and Atlantic
coasts is a limiting factor in ground water develop-
ment.

It is estimated that 100 billion acre-feet of ground
water is within 2,500 feet of the surface in the
conterminous United States; about 50 percent of
this volume is economically and environmentally
available. This amount is nearly 150 times the amount

287

Figure 7.4

Average Annual Precipitation

Ranges from 16
to 400 inches

Average Annual
Precipitation

Inches
0-10

[:xieeeal
[2] 1-20
| 20 - 30
[J 20-40
|| 40-60
BR 0 - 100
Bee

Ranges from 30 to 210 inches

Over 100

of our total reservoir storage capacity, or more than
the Mississippi River has discharged into the
Gulf of Mexico over the last 200 years. About half
of the country is underlain by rock material that
could yield at least 50 gallons per minute from
wells.

Ground water also provides the base flow of
streams; in some regions, ground water flows pro-
vide streams with a continuity of flow that they
would not otherwise possess. The water supply infor-
mation presented in the section on surface water
includes considerable water that enters from ground
water aquifers. Part of this ground water resource
does not get into the surface water supply naturally,
and can be developed only by drilling.

The Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains contain the

288

largest reserve of ground water in the nation (fig.
7.6). Present pumpage is but a small fraction of the
supplies that could be developed. Even so, saltwater
encroachment along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts
is a limiting factor in ground water development.

Another significant area for ground water potential
is the series of alluvial basins in the West. These
are alluvium-filled valleys that receive runoff recharge
from surrounding mountains. The surface is very dry,
but the alluvial deposits are usually very thick and
they now store the equivalent of centuries of charging.
In this area, conjunctive development of streamflow
and ground water in storage is becoming a necessity
because of heavy water use for irrigation and domestic
heeds in large cities such as Los Angeles, Phoenix,
and Albuquerque.

Figure 7.5

Average Annual Runoff

Average Annual Runoff

Inches

make
1-5
Hy 5-20
20-40
gue Over 40

Regional data not available for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

Still another area with important ground water
potential is that of the glacial deposits in the Great
Lakes area, extending from central Montana to
eastern New York. The deposits contains beds of
water-sorted permeable sand and gravel but consti-
tute an important source of water.

Ground water supplies become depleted if recharge
of ground water aquifers does not equal or exceed
withdrawals. Because mining is substantial in some
areas of the nation, ground water levels have been
receding rapidly. For example, more than 14 million
acre-feet are mined annually in the High Plains
area. Thus, much of the nonrenewable ground water
in parts of the arid West is being exhausted at
a rate that will cause significant reductions in total
availability by the year 2000.

The water supply available for use in a region is
the runoff into streams or other water bodies aug-
mented by the contribution of ground water to
streamflows, plus the amount that is available directly
from ground water aquifers on a long-term basis.
This supply can be calculated for a region by mea-
suring the flow of streams as they leave the region,
adding the volume of water consumed in the region,
and subtracting the volume of ground water depletion,
or the volume of mined ground water. Table 7.10
presents a general picture of the Nation’s water supply
by water resource region. This is the supply expected
in a year of average precipitation; 80 years out of
100; and 95 years out of 100. This should closely
approximate an annual supply based on the stated
probabilities of occurrence.

289

Figure 7.6

Major Areas of Potential Groundwater Development

Alluvial Basin

Regional data not available for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

In most regions, water supplies vary from high flows
during spring and early summer to low flows during
late summer to early winter. Many times the high
water-use season corresponds to the low water-yield
season. For this reason, analysis of average water
supplies and demands does not reveal some water
shortage problems. Although the Nation’s total
streamflow varies greatly from year to year, the
longterm trend shows that the flow has been remark-
ably constant and that no general or persistent down-
ward trend is evident, though the 10-year moving
average indicates rather prominent swings of a near-
periodic nature (fig. 7.7).4

4Langbine, Walter B. Water resources review for December
1977. U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. 18 p.
1978.

290

Problem Areas

A comparison of water supply and demand data
shows that the Nation’s water supplies are generally
sufficient to meet water needs for all purposes. How-
ever, major problems are evident in most of the
21 water resource regions; more particularly, there
are serious local problems in nearly all of the 106
subregions. These include shortages resulting from
poor distribution of supplies, instream-offstream
conflicts, competition among various offstream users,
ground water overdrafts, quality degradation of both
surface and ground water supplies, and institutional
conflicts that prevent a unified approach to water
management.

To better relate potential water supply problems to
the Resources Planning Act Regions used in this
report, the subregions have been reaggregated to
represent the Resources Planning Act Regions as
closely as possible.

Figure 7.7

Annual Mean Streamflow within the United States, 1930-1976, and the Moving

Average, 1920-1974

% of Mean!
150

10-Year Moving
Average

130
110
90

70

0
1920 1930 1940 1950

Water Year

1Computed from base period 1931-1960.

1960 1970 1980

SA aS I I I IE I LE LE LE ST EE

Water Quantity

Table 7.11 presents tne water demand-supply data
used to evaluate water supply adequacy. The propor-
tion of each subregion that is currently in forest and
range is presented to indicate the relative importance
of forest and range management to each subregion.
In the analysis of water quantities, two levels of supply
are considered: (1) The mean supply, which is the
amount of water that would be expected in the average
water supply year, and (2) the dry year supply, which
is the minimum amount that is expected 80 years out
of 100. In effect, the expected water supply will be
less than the dry year supply 20 percent of the time.

Consumptive water use is one of the more impor-
tant factors to consider in evaluating water adequacy.
Table 7.11 shows the percentage depletion of supplies,
which is the proportion of the available supply that
will be consumptively depleted in the mean and dry
years.

Figures 7.8 and 7.9 also present the 106 Water
Resource subregion by four water depletion categories
based upon the highest depletion rate over time in

the mean water supply year (fig. 7.8) and the dry
supply year (fig. 7.9).

Often, seasonal water supply problems are not
apparent from annual supply-use data. Therefore,
table 7.11 also presents the number of months each
year in which consumptive use would exceed the 90
percent supply in both the mean and dry supply years.
This indicates the importance of seasonal variations,
and also will have important implications for instream
uses which will be discussed later.

It is important to note that in some subregions,
ground water mining is used to supplement surface
flows. Thus, the monthly data represent the situation
if ground water mining does or does not occur. For
example, table 7.11 shows that in the average supply
year for the San Joaquin-Tulare Subregion (1803),
consumptive use normally will exceed 90 percent of
streamflow for 4 months without mining ground
water, and only for 3 months if ground water mining
continues. Mining is only a temporary solution to
water supply problems and cannot continue indefi-
nitely.

291

Table 7.10 — Expected water supplies in the
United States, by water resource region

(Billion gallons a day)

Water resource Confidence level!

region 95 percent
New England : : 48.3
Middle Atlantic 48.4
South Atlantic Gulf 121.8
Great Lakes 44.9
Ohio 105.0
Tennessee 31.4
Upper Mississippi 65.3
Lower Mississippi 202.0
Souris-Red Rainy 1.8
Missouri 17.6
Arkansas-White-Red 21.6
Texas Gulf 6.3
Rio Grande 2
Upper Colorado 3.9
Lower Colorado 1.2
Great Basin lt2
Pacific Northwest 179.7
California 19.5
Alaska 705.0
Hawaii 3.8
Caribbean 1.6

‘The quantity of water supply expected annually on the average and at 80 and95
percent probability level
Source: See source note table 7.1

In general, the eastern United States is expected
to have few water shortage problems at the subregion
level. The Northeast region has no subregions where
water quantity problems are anticipated during the
projected years. Nor does there appear to be major
seasonal problems since consumptive use does not
exceed 90 percent of the supply in any month (table
7.11). Yet, in the early 1960’s, the Northeast region
experienced a drought that had a severe impact on
supplies. Such problems could be expected to occur
again, though infrequently (less than 10 out of 100
years).

Within the North Central region, water quantity
problems are most likely in the Southwestern Lake
Michigan subregion (0403). The dry year supply will
be depleted by 55 percent by 1985 and by 80 percent
by 2000. The 95 percent supply (1 in 20 years) would
fall considerably below annual consumption needs.
A small increase in demand in combination with
drought conditions could amplify the problem. Manu-
facturing and electric cooling will be major water
consumers in this subregion, and would likely be most
severely affected in a drought year.

In the Southeast Region, only the Southern Florida
(0305) subregion in the South Atlantic Gulf is likely
to experience significant flow depletion. It is signifi-
cant that in 20 percent of the years, streamflow will

292

be depleted in excess of 90 percent for 5 months.
This shows a serious seasonal supply problem, and
could represent a substantial problem for instream
values.

Within the South Central region, several subregions
show potential depletion problems. The Canadian
(1105) and the Red-Washita (1106) subregions have
only moderately high depletion rates, but their water
supply problem is critical because of the high rates
of ground water mining. In the Canadian subregion
(1105), ground water mining accounts for 68 percent
of the average year supply. The monthly analysis
shows a large difference in the number of months
that consumptive use exceeds 90 percent supply with
and without ground water mining.

Also in the South Central, the Brazos (1203) and
the Colorado (1204) subregions show high depletion
ratios, especially in the dry years, though they cur-
rently exceed 50 percent depletion in the average
year. More than half of the months show an excess
of 90 percent depletion during the dry year in these
two subregions. In much of the High Plains area,
irrigation is heavily supported by ground water min-
ing, which supplies 39 percent and 24 percent of the
average supply in subregions 1203 and 1204, respec-
tively. A water shortage in the future could severely
affect the economy of the South Central Region,
which is heavily dependent on irrigated agriculture.
Both the Rio Grande-Pecos (1303) and the Lower Rio
Grande (1305) are likely to experience major deple-
tions, the latter exceeding 90 percent in all dry years.

The Great Plains region includes four subdrainages
in the Missouri River Basin and one in the Arkansas-
White-Red River Basin. The Niobrara-Platte-Loup
(1008), Kansas (1010), and the Arkansas-Cimarron
(1103) all show high depletions currently ranging
from 58 to 113 percent in the dry year. Irrigation
accounts for more than 90 percent of the water con-
sumed in these subregions; consequently, the agricul-
tural economy will be impacted the greatest in years
of short supply. Ground water overdraft is fairly
significant in the Kansas and Arkansas-Cimarron
drainages.

The Rocky Mountain Region, which includes parts
of the Missouri, Rio Grande, Colorado, Great Basin,
and the upper drainages of the Columbia Rivers,
has several subregions that have potential water quan-
tity problems. These are discussed as part of the major
drainages.

In the Missouri River portion of the Rocky Moun-
tain Region, the No/So Platte (1007) will approach
90 percent depletion in any dry year. The No/So
Platte is experiencing seasonal water shortages and is
mining large amounts of ground water. Irrigation,
which accounts for more than 90 percent of consump-
tion, will be impacted most during years of short

Figure 7.8

Highest Percentage Water Depletion (1975-2000) in a Mean Water Supply Year, by Water Resource Region

supply. The Upper Arkansas (1102) has one of the
highest depletions in the Nation—119 percent in a
dry year.

The Rocky Mountain Region contains three of the
Rio Grande subregions, all of which have very high
depletion rates. Both the Rio Grande Headwaters
(1301) and Upper Pecos (1304) would now exceed
100 percent depletion in the dry year. The Gila (1503)
consumes 99 percent of the average supply, of which
66 percent is mined ground water. All of these sub-
regions are 60 to 70 percent forest and range, indi-
cating that resource management may offer at least
partial solution.

Overall, the Great Basin drainages show very high
depletion rates. Water consumption in the Humboldt-
Tonopah (1603) would exceed the available supply
by 17 percent in a dry year, and will exceed 100
percent of supply by 1985 in the average supply situa-
tion. Because of heavy irrigation use in these basins,

es) 91% and over

the seasonal distribution is a problem. Depletion
exceeds 90 percent supply several months every year.

The Pacific Coast Region consists of the lower
portion of the Columbia River and all of the
California-South Pacific Water Resource Region.
Several subregions show significant potential prob-
lems, including the Oregon Closed Basin (1707), San
Joaquin-Tulare (1803), Central California (1805),
Southern California (1806), and the Lahontan-South
(1807). Several others show moderately high depletion.

In all of these areas where water shortages are
expected, excluding the Great Lakes region, irrigated
agriculture is the major consumptive water use. Water
values for irrigation are among the lowest of all with-
drawal or consumptive uses. As water becomes scarce,
its use will ultimately decline for those purposes of
lower value. Thus, it is evident that the water short-
ages enumerated will ultimately have the greatest
direct impact on the agricultural and related economy.

293

Figure 7.9

Highest Percentage Water Depletion (1975-2000) in a Dry Water Supply Year, by Water Resource Region

At present, water quantity problems are of little
consequence in Alaska, nor are they expected in the
future. Consumption of water in Hawaii is increasing,
but is not expected to pose serious supply problems.
Water consumption in the Virgin Islands will greatly
exceed water supplies in the future, but this is not the
case in Puerto Rico.

Adequacy of Instream Flow

The “depletion” analysis can also provide infor-
mation about the adequacy of waterflows to support
aquatic life. To do this, it is necessary to establish
criteria for describing the severity of various levels
of depletion. Tennant has described the instream flow
conditions for 60 (40 percent depletion), 30 (70 per-

‘Tennant, Donald L. Instream flow regimens for fish, wildlife,
recreation and related environmental resources. U.S. Department

of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Billings, Montana, 123 p.
1975.

294

[__] 0-30% eS

[] 31-60%
Sy 61-90%
ess a 91% and over

ee,

cent depletion), and 10 percent (90 percent depletion)
mean annual flow.

“Sixty percent of average flow (40 percent deple-
tion) is the base flow recommended to provide excel-
lent to outstanding habitat for most aquatic life forms
during their primary periods of growth and for the
majority of recreational uses. Channel widths, depths,
and velocities will provide excellent aquatic habitat.
Most of the normal channel substrate will be covered
with water, including many shallow riffle and shoal
areas. Side channels that normally carry water will
have adequate flows. Few gravel bars will be exposed,
and the majority of islands will serve as wildlife nest-
ing, denning, nursery, and refuge habitat. The major-
ity of streambanks will provide cover for fish and safe
denning areas-for wildlife. Pools, runs, and riffles
will be adequately covered with water and provide
excellent feeding and nursery habitat for fishes. Ripar-
ian vegetation will have plenty of water. Fish migra-

There are very high water depletion rates in the Great Basin
drainages in the Rocky Mountains. Storage ponds can supplement
water supplies.

tion is no problem in any riffle areas. Water tempera-
tures are not expected to become limiting in any
reach of the stream. Invertebrate life forms should be
varied and abundant. Water quality and quantity
should be excellent for fishing and floating canoes,
rafts, and larger boats, and general recreation. Stream
esthetics and natural beauty will be excellent to
outstanding.

“Thirty. percent of the average flow (70 percent
depletion) is a base low recommended to sustain good
survival habitat for most aquatic life forms. Widths,
depths, and velocities will generally be satisfactory. ...
The majority of the substrate will be covered with
water, except for very wide, shallow riffle or shoal
areas. Most side channels will carry some water. Most
gravel bars will be partially covered with water and
many islands will provide wildlife nesting, denning,
nursery, and refuge habitat. Streambanks will provide
cover for fish and wildlife denning habitat. Many
runs and most pools will be deep enough to serve
as cover for fishes. Riparian vegetation will not
suffer from lack of water. Large fish can move over
riffle areas. Water temperatures are not expected to
become limiting in most stream segments. Inverte-
brate life is reduced but not expected to become a
limiting factor in fish production. Water quality and
quantity should be good for fishing, floating, and
general recreation, especially with canoes, rubber
rafts, and smaller shallow draft boats. Stream esthetics
and natural beauty will generally be satisfactory.

“Ten percent of the average flow (90 percent deple-
tion) is a minimum instantaneous flow recommended
to sustain short-term survival habitat for most aquatic
life forms. Channel widths, depths, and velocities
will all be significantly reduced and the aquatic habitat
degraded. . . . The stream substrate or wetted perim-
eter may be about half exposed, except in wide,
shallow riffle or shoal areas where exposure could be

higher. Side channels will be severely or totally
dewatered. Gravel bars will be substantially de-
watered, and islands will usually no longer function
as wildlife nesting, denning, nursery, and refuge
habitat. Streambank cover for fish and fur animal
denning habitat will be severely diminished. Many
wetted areas will be so shallow they no longer will
serve as cover, and fish will generally be crowded into
the deepest pools. Riparian vegetation may suffer
from lack of water. Large fish will have difficulty
migrating upstream over many riffle areas. Water
temperature often becomes a limiting factor, espe-
cially in the lower reaches of streams in July and
August. Invertebrate life will be severely reduced.
Fishing will often be very good in the deeper pools
and runs since fish will be concentrated. Many fish-
ermen prefer this level of flow. However, fish may be
vulnerable to overharvest. Floating is difficult even in
a canoe or rubber raft. Natural beauty and stream
esthetics are badly degraded. Most streams carry less
than 10 percent of the average flow at times, so even
this low level of flow will occasionally provide some
enhancement over a natural flow regime.”

From the established criteria, it can be determined
that depletion levels in excess of 90 percent for sus-
tained periods usually will have serious adverse effects
on aquatic habitat. The monthly analysis in table 7.11
indicates those subregions where the flow will be
reduced by more than 90 percent for long periods.

Most of the major impacts of use on the volume
of water in streams occurs in the West (table 7.11).
These data, however, provide comparisons only of
total water consumption in a subregion with the aver-
age outflow of water from the subregion. Most regions
and subregions have main streams and tributaries
that have flows well below the “good survival habitat”
level at some time during a normal year, and many
also approach or go below the “minimum short-term
survival” flow level. In some cases, including some
in the western United States, natural streamflows
are augmented by reservoir releases to avoid such
problems.

There are other cases, however, where streamflows
fluctuate widely during the day in response to reser-
voir discharges to meet varying demands for hydro-
electric power. Average flows seem adequate for
aquatic life in Water Resource Regions 1-9. High
depletions are causing the greatest instream impacts
on aquatic life in the Rio Grande region and the
Lower Colorado and the Southern California sub-
regions. Other areas under stress include the No/So
Platte, parts of the Arkansas-White-Red region and
the Brazos, Colorado, San Joaquin, and the San
Francisco Bay subregions. In a dry year, additional
aquatic habitat areas that are likely to be greatly
impacted include the Southern Florida and Kansas

295

regions, and most of the Arkansas-White-Red and
the Great Basin regions.

Major efforts have been made — by construction
of reservoirs and channel dredging—to maintain
instream flow levels that are sufficient for commercial
navigation on the inland waterways system. While
mitigating the effects of variable rainfall on the
acreage level of instream flows, these efforts have
greatly modified aquatic habitat conditions. Water
depths and movement have been changed on long
stretches of many streams. At the same time, new
habitat has been created in reservoirs.

The effect of forests and other vegetation on runoff
and streamflows, especially in reducing wide varia-
tions in flow, has long been known. Increasing atten-
tion is being directed at nonstructural methods, in-
cluding vegetation management, as alternatives to
dams and channelization for minimizing wide swings
in streamflows.

Flooding

Flooding affects all parts of the United States —
in arid as well as humid areas. In 1975, despite modern
communications and weather services, 113 people
were killed by floodwaters, and property damages
were estimated at $3.4 billion. Almost half of all flood
damages are to agriculture, as crops and livestock
are destroyed and production land is covered or
washed away. In urban areas, property damage is
accompanied by unemployment and dislocation of
people.

The impact of flooding on wildlife, fish, and eco-
system is mixed. In upstream areas, wildlife food and
habitat are often washed away or covered by flood-
waters, resulting in severe damage to natural systems.
Less measurable losses include funds spent for relief
and reconstruction, lost productivity, and the general
disruption of the economy during and after a flood.
However, flooding may transport beneficial nutrients
that improve or supply natural downstream systems.

Since 1941, annual flood damages have not been
less than $50 million. Yearly damages usually range
from $100 million to $400 million. Damages ap-
proaching $1 billion have occurred several times
since 1950, the highest being $4.5 billion in 1972.
Despite the increasing trend in annual flood dam-
ages, there is no evidence that storms are increasing
in magnitude or frequency. The increases in damage
result from inflation and, more importantly, from
new development in flood-prone or flood-susceptible
areas.

6U.S. Water Resources Council. The 1975 assessment of water
and related land resources, op. cit.

296

Average annual flood damage per square mile
varies considerably by region and subregion (fig.
7.10). This wide variation in average flood damages
is related in part to weather patterns, in part to the
character of the streams in the region or subregion,
and in part to the average value of property subjected
to flooding.

Floods cause serious health problems, injuries,
exposures, stress, and bacterial contamination. Many
of these problems may continue long after the flood
has subsided. The yearly loss of life from floods has
usually been less than 100, but it exceeded 500 in
1972.

Floods can be both devastating or beneficial to
agricultural interests. They can wipe out crops and
dump tons of sand, gravel, clay, and other debris
on productive lands. Floatable debris in flood plains
can cause significant damage to structures such as
bridges, culverts (and associated roads), and other
structures within the flood plain, particularly for
floods with recurrence intervals of up to 25 years.
Loose materials that are picked up and carried by
floodwaters are often trapped against structures such
as bridges where they collect and form debris dams.
These dams force water to find an alternate route
around them. If the debris dams break loose and
wash out, the resulting surge of water and debris can
cause additional damage to other downstream struc-
tures and possible loss of life. On the positive side,
slow-moving floods can deposit fertile, highly produc-
tive soil on cropland. Other types of enrichment can
be found in wetlands and other natural areas where
periodic flooding can rejuvenate feeding and breeding
areas.

It is projected that average annual flood damages
will increase to $4.3 billion in the year 2000. Agri-
cultural damages are expected to be more than $1.7
billion in 2000 while urban damages are projected to
increase by 36 percent to $1.6 billion. All other dam-
ages are expected to average about $1 billion. The
annual loss of lives has varied widely over the years;
consequently, no estimates were projected.

Generally, the regional estimates and projections
of flood damages are closely correlated with popula-
tion densities. The highest damages are likely to occur
in the South Atlantic-Gulf, California, and Missouri
regions. Agricultural damages are most important in
the South Atlantic-Gulf and Missouri regions, but
are also significant in the Upper and Lower Mississippi,
Arkansas-White-Red, and the Texas Gulf regions.
Urban damages will be more prominent in California,
New England, Mid-Atlantic, and the Great Lakes
regions.

7.10

Figure

Average Flood Damages by Subregion

<0, A
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(ea) Less than $800

000 to $3,000
,000 to $2,000

$800 to $1,000

Exceeds $3,000

e
ESS} $1

2102

Ne

such as this alfalfa field (left) and apple orchard (right)

Qo

will account for 40 percent of flood losses by 2000.

>

Agriculture losses to flooding,

297

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Pacific Southwest (continued)

100 118 99 117 98 116 |100 118 |} 104

277

327

34

1807 Lahontan - South

Annual total

905,058 795,058

33

1901 Alaska annual total

Hawaii

43
59
67
64

2003 Honolulu County
2004 Kaui County

2001 Hawaii County
Annual total

2002 Maui County

Caribbean

il

3,627

21

2101 Puerto Rico

5,177

12

0

200 267

150 200

167

25

2102 Virgin Islands

Annual total

10

7

3,630

5,181

‘Water supply that can be expected on the average

2Water that can be expected 90 percent of the time.

3Proportion of water supply that is used consumptively.

4Ground water mining - extraction of ground water at a rate faster than it is being replenished.

Source: See source note table 7.1.

Water Quality

The natural quality of water in the Nation’s streams
and lakes is, in large part, a reflection of the charac-
teristics of the land and vegetation from which the
water flows. Because of the natural variation in land
and vegetation, the natural quality of water in streams
and lakes is neither uniform nor static. Water is con-
stantly moving, even in lakes and reservoirs; as it
moves, its quality changes. It is influenced by natural
features including geological features, soil, vegetation,
natural landslides, and wildfire.

The natural quality of water is also affected by the
actions of people. These actions include road con-
struction, urban development, farming, mining, tim-
ber harvesting, livestock grazing, and dumping of
municipal and industrial wastes. Acid precipitation,
which occurs when precipitation falls through air
containing heavy concentrations of sulfur, also affects
water quality, especially near heavily industrialized
areas.

Water is often used and reused several times and
for many purposes during its journey to the sea.
Quality can be either improved or degraded as it is
used and returned to the stream. Because it is ever-
moving and ever-changing, water quality and quantity
are difficult to inventory or measure.

It is important to realize that water quality deter-
mines the usability of water and that quality can be
good or bad, depending on the specific uses man
wishes to make of it. For example, a clear alpine lake
may be excellent for esthetic enjoyment and trout
fishing, but very poor for swimming since the water
temperature rarely exceeds 10 degrees centigrade.
Another example would be when the natural water
quality is ideal for swimming and for fish, wildlife,
and livestock, but is unsatisfactory for industrial
use because of the content of total dissolved solids.

To show the relationship of water quality to its
natural environment, relatively undisturbed forest and
range land watersheds with available water quality
data were selected in each division, province, or sec-
tion as described by Bailey.’.8 Bailey’s hierarchical
system for land classification (ecoregions) begins with
the largest, broadest definition as a domain, and
proceeds downward in size and in specificity through
division and province to section, the smallest and
most discrete unit. Each section describes a more or
less continuous geographical area and is characterized
by distinctive fauna, climate, landform (including
drainage pattern), soil, and vegetation that distin-

7 Bailey, Robert. Ecoregions of the United States (map). U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Ogden, Utah. 1976.

8 Bailey, Robert. Description of the ecoregions of the United
States. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Ogden,
Utah.

301

guishes it from adjacent sections. Within such sec-
tions, ecological relationships between plants, soil,
and climate are essentially similar, so similar manage-
ment treatments give comparable results and have
similar effects on the environment. They are consid-
ered to be biological and physical areas of a specific
potential.

In addition to being relatively undisturbed (no
major land disturbing activities within at least the
last 5 years), the selected watersheds were also small
(10 to 200 square miles), more than 90 percent forest
or range land or both, and had a minimum of 5 years
(10 years when possible) of water quality records that
included total dissolved solids, water temperature,
suspended sediment, and dissolved oxygen. These
data, primarily from STORET, are presented in
table 7.12 to show water quality for these parameters
by ecoregion.

The quality of the water in all of the undisturbed
watersheds exceeds the minimum water quality stan-
dards of most States. There is, however, a substantial
amount of variability in the various measures of
quality among the divisions, provinces, and sections.

Controlling water pollution and improving the
quality of the Nation’s waters are important public
policy objectives. The Federal Water Pollution Act
Amendments of 1972 (Public Law 92-500) established
a goal of eliminating by 1985 the discharge of pol-
lutants into the Nation’s navigable waters; an interim
goal was to provide by July 1, 1983, wherever attain-
able, water quality sufficient for recreation and the
protection and propagation of fish, shellfish, and
wildlife. The Administrator of the Environmental
Protection Agency is charged with directing efforts to
achieve these goals.

The Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amend-
ments of 1972 defined two broad sources of pollution
— point source and nonpoint source. Point sources
are those that generally originate at a known loca-
tion, are transported through pipes, and are dis-
charged into receiving waters at a fixed point. Non-
point sources, on the other hand, are diffuse in origin,
their transportation into receiving water is not well
defined or constant, their discharge occurs at many
diffuse locations, and depends heavily on weather
conditions such as rainstorms or snowmelt.

The initial thrust of the pollution control efforts to
reach the goals set forth in the Federal Water Pol-
lution Control Act Amendments was related to point
sources. Those programs were so successful in con-
trolling point source pollution that both the Environ-

9STORET, an acronym for the Environmental Protection
Agency’s quality data storage and retrieval program.

302

Water quality is in large part a reflection of the land and vegetation
from which the water flows.

mental Protection Agency!? and the Comptroller Gen-
eral!! identified nonpoint source pollution as the
limiting factor in reaching the stated goals in many of
the 246 hydrological drainage basins across the
Nation identified by the Environmental Protection
Agency.!?

'0U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. National water
quality inventory, 1977, report to Congress. Unpublished draft.

'! The Comptroller General of the United States. Report to the
Congress. National water quality goals cannot be attained without
more attention to pollution from diffused or “nonpoint” sources,
December 20, 1977.

!2U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. STORET user hand-
book. Office of water and hazardous materials, Washington, D.C.,
June 1977; and associated map EPA-STORET major/ minor river
basins, March 1973.

Table 7.12 — Data for selected measures of water quality from undisturbed forest and range
watersheds in the United States, by division, province, and section

Division, province, and section

1300 Subarctic
M1310 Alaska Range

1320 Yukon Forest
2100 Warm Continental
2110 Laurentian Mixed Forest
2111 Spruce-fir
2112 Northern Hardwoods-Fir
2113 Northern Hardwoods
2114 Northern Hardwoods-Spruce
M2110 Columbia Forest
M2111 Douglas-fir Forest
M2112 Cedar-Hemlock-
Douglas-fir
2200 Hot Continental
2210 Eastern Deciduous Forest
2211 Mixed Mesophytic
2212 Beech-Maple
2213 Maple-Basswood +
Oak Savanna
2214 Appalachia Oak
2215 Oak Hickory
2300 Subtropical
2310 Outer Coastal Plain Forest
2311 Beech-Sweetgum-
Magnolia-Pine-Oak
2312 Southern Flood Plain
2320 Southeastern Mixed Forest
2400 Marine
2410 Willamette-Puget Forest
M2410 Pacific Forest

M2411 Sitka-Spruce-Cedar-
Hemlock
M2412 Redwood Forest
M2413 Cedar-Hemlock-
Douglas-fir
M2414 California Mixed Evergreen
M2415 Silver Fir-Douglas-fir
2500 Prairie
2510 Prairie Parkland
2511 Oak-Hickory-Bluestem
2512 Oak + Bluestem
2520 Prairie Brushland
2521 Mesquite-Buffalo Grass
2522 Juniper-Oak-Mesquite
2523 Mesquite-Acacia
2530 Tall-grass Prairie
2531 Bluestem
2532 Wheatgrass-Bluestem-
Needlegrass
2533 Bluestem-Grama

See footnotes at end of table.

149
72

868

155
104

120

90

95

100

100

0

10.0
10.0

4.5
5.0

Measures of quality

Total dissolved solids Dissolved oxygen Water temperature
(mg/1)' (% saturation)? (degrees centigrade)
[0 A SI

6.0

13.0

13.0

Percentile

5
1
(20)

1
3

4
6
2

3
(100)
20

24

48

19

10
3
(80)

Suspended sediment
(mg/1)°

40
(500)°
408

734

93
20

20
40
(400)$

118

303

Table 7.12 — Data for selected measures of water quality from undisturbed forest and range water-
sheds in the United States, by division, province, and section — continued

Total dissolved solids

Division, province, and section (mg/1)'

Percentile

Measures of quality

Water temperature | Suspended sediment
(degrees centigrade) (mg/1)3

Percentile Percentile

Dissolved oxygen
(% saturation)?

Percentile

Pe[o[s[s[ole|s[o[s|s lols

2600 Mediterranean
2610 California Grassland
M2610 Sierran Forest
M2620 California Chaparral
3100 Steepe
3110 Great Plains Shortgrass Prairie
3111 Grama-Needlegrass-Wheatgrass
3112 Wheatgrass-Needlegrass’
3113 Grama-Buffalo Grass
M3110 Rocky Mountain Forest
M3111 Grand Fir-Douglas-fir
M3112 Douglas-fir
M3113 Ponderosa Pine-
Douglas-fir
3120 Palouse Grassland
M3120 Upper Gila Mountains Forest
3130 Intermountain Sagebrush
3131 Sagebrush-Wheatgrass
3132 Lahontan Saltbush-
Greasewood
3133 Great Basin Sagebrush
3134 Bonneville Saltbush-
Greasewood
3135 Ponderosa Shrub Forest
P 3130 Colorado Plateau
P 3131 Juniper-Pinyon Woodland+
Sagebrush-Saltbush Mosaic
P 3132 Grama-Galleta Steepe +
Juniper-Pinyon Woodland
3140 Mexican Highlands Shrub
A3140 Wyoming Basin
A3141 Wheatgrass-Needlegrass-
Sage
A3142 Sagebrush-Wheatgrass
3200 Desert
3210 Chihuahuan Desert
3211 Grama-Tobosa
3212 Tarbush-Creosote Bush
3220 American (Mojave-Colorado-
Sonoran)
3221 Creosote Bush
3222 Creosote Bush-Bur Sage
4200 Rainforest
M4210 Hawaiian Islands

‘All solid material that passes through a filter membrane having pores of 0.45
micron in diameter. Measured in milligrams per liter (mg/1).

?The ratio of the amount of dissolved oxygen present in water at a given
temperature to the amount of dissolved oxygen water can hold at that tempera-
ture, expressed as a percent.

?The inorganic particles larger than 0.45 micron in diameter carried in sus-
pension by the water. Measured in milligrams per liter (mg/1).

“Percentile figures are determined from an analysis of a frequency distribution.
The 50th percentile represents the median (midpoint) of the data and a range is
selected in which 70 percent of the data falls between the 15th and 85th
percentiles.

*Figuresin( ) are for streams with a major contribution from glacial melt and
are for the same ecoregions as figures immediately preceeding.

304

® Suspended sediment figures for Yukon Forest do not include that measured in
the Yukon River which is a glacial melt river originating in Canada.

7 These figures represent only the Black Hills portion of this ecoregion.

Note: Numbers before the division, province, and section designations refer to
lowland ecoregions as described in Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agricul-
ture, Ecoregions of the United States, 1976. Letters with the numbers, i.e., M1310,
P3131, A3142, etc., indicate highland ecoregions in which M = mountains, P =
plateau, and A = altiplano (a high plateau or plain).

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. National Water Quality Data
Storage and Retrieval Program (STORET).

Point Source Pollution — Problem Areas

Point source pollution is generated primarily by
industries and municipalities and is generally inci-
dental to forest and range lands. However, several
kinds of operations associated with forest and range
lands do generate point source pollution. Some of
these are relatively permanent and generate pollution
ona year-round basis, but others are only temporary
or seasonal. Common sources of potential point
source pollution on forest and range lands include:
rock crushing and gravel washing; log sorting and
storage; wood processing; mining; food processing;
developed recreation sites; feedlots; marine vessels;
remote work centers (logging and mining camps);
summer homes; and organization camps. These
sources of point pollution are found, collectively, in
nearly every hydrologic basin identified by the Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency,!3 though not all are
considered pollution problems in all basins. In fact,
pollution from these sources is generally not signifi-
cant on a national basis, but it can be significant
locally if not controlled. A summary of the major
point pollution sources and the related types of
pollution is shown in table 7.13 by each major region
as defined by the Environmental Protection Agency.

Nonpoint Source Pollution — Problem Areas

Most pollution from activities on forest and range
land is nonpoint source. As mentioned earlier, non-
point sources of pollution are becoming, or have
already become, the primary source of pollution in
many streams. There are several recognized cate-
gories of nonpoint source pollution including mining;
urban runoff; construction of roads and buildings;
silviculture — man’s activities in growing and harvest-
ing timber; agriculture; hydrologic modification of
surface or ground waters; subsurface excavations —
industrial injection wells, septic tanks and landfills;
and saltwater intrusion into fresh water supplies. Of
these, mining, silviculture, construction, and the
grazing aspects of agriculture are commonly recog-
nized as causing significant nonpoint source pollution
from forest and range lands. The other categories of
nonpoint source pollution do cause significant pollu-
tion from forest, range, and associated lands in local
areas, but on a nationwide basis they are not consid-
ered a major problem.

One of the greatest problems associated with non-
point source polution is that it is often difficult to
identify, measure, or treat because it is diffuse and
diluted. However, while impacts of nonpoint source

13U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. National water
quality inventory, 1977 report to Congress, op. cit.

pollution are often less concentrated and conspicu-
ous, they are not necessarily less harmful than the
impacts of point source pollution. To the extent that
forests and range lands and their uses contribute to
nonpoint source pollution, this will generally occur in
those stream reaches and lakes where the water is of
relatively high quality. Any degradation of quality in
these areas is easily noticed and difficult to treat.

Another serious problem of nonpoint source pollu-
tion is separating pollution induced by man from that
which occurs naturally. Most wildlands, even under
natural conditions, are sources of many pollutants
which contribute to the total load of nonpoint source
pollution. These natural pollutants are in the form of
sediment, but organic and chemical pollution also
occur from natural sources.

A third major problem related to nonpoint source
pollution is the lack of data on the sources, extent,
and impacts of nonpoint pollution on water quality.

Just as there are general nonpoint source pollution
problems, so are there specific problem areas. The
agricultural industry is probably the largest single
contributor to nonpoint source pollution. By volume,
the major pollutant is sediment, primarily from soil
erosion of croplands and stream channels. Cropland
contributes about 40 percent or more of the total
sediment deposited in streams and lakes. About 19
percent is from forest and range lands and 30 percent
is from roadsides, streambanks, and mining. Urban
and other sources contribute the remaining 11
percent.!4

Water quality is affected by nonpoint source pollu-
tion from mining in two ways — acid-mine drainage
and sediment, both of which are more common from
abandoned mines. Acid drainage occurs when ex-
posed sulphur-bearing rock reacts with air and water
to form sulfuric acid. This acid then leaches through
the ground, including tailings, where it dissolves
other minerals and metals, and continues its journey
until it reaches a stream or lake. Acid drainage affects
pH (the measure of hydrogen-ion activity of solu-
tions), dissolved solids content, and toxic aspects of
water quality. Sediment is produced by runoff from
any unprotected soil, whether it be from roads, areas
cleared of vegetation for mining, or tailings. Pollu-
tion from mining can be a special problem to com-
munities, both human and natural biota, located near
the source of the drainage.

Silviculture is the primary source of nonpoint pol-
lution most commonly associated with forest lands.
Many activities inherent in forest management are
included in the term “silviculture,” including nursery

'4U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service.
Environmental impact statement, rural clean water program,
August 24, 1978.

305

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306

operations, site preparation, reforestation, and subse-
quent culture operations, such as thinning, prescribed
burning, pest and fire control, timber harvesting, and
the construction and maintenance of roads and other
transportation systems associated with these activi-
ties. Forests are generally free of accelerated erosion
unless they have been disturbed by fire, grazing,
timber harvesting, mining, or construction.

Typical pollutants caused by silvicultural activities
include sediment, nutrient, pesticide, thermal, and
organic material (which causes oxygen depletion).
Sediment is caused primarily by road construction,
but other types of construction, such as that of power
and pipe lines or dams, also contribute to sediment
loads on a local basis. Timber harvesting, aside from
the associated roads and skid trails, usually does not
produce much sediment. The greatest impact of ero-
sion from forest and range lands is not always that of
water pollution. In some instances, especially where
there is severe sheet erosion or where mass failures
occur, the loss of soil productivity is of greater
consequence. The available data indicate that the
percentage of forest and range lands on which this
type of erosion occurs is minimal.

Nutrient enrichment of streams is a natural process
that is fairly constant from all forest and range lands.
Decomposition of vegetation is the greatest natural
source of nutrients, but livestock and wildlife manure
also add to the total load. Some nutrients are de-
posited directly into streams and lakes in the form of
organic matter as a result of needle cast, leaf fall, and
the activities of wildlife such as beaver and muskrats.
The decomposition of organic matter within the
aquatic ecosystem results in oxygen depletion, which,
under certain flow conditions, can cause critical water
quality degradation. Both the nutrient and organic
matter content of streams and lakes can be increased
temporarily by management activities. Fertilization
of forests and range lands to increased growth can
cause a temporary increase in nutrients immediately
after application, especially after the first rainfall.
Timber harvesting, especially clearcutting, also can
cause a temporary increase in both nutrients and
organic matter. Figure 7.11 illustrates the relation
between selected land uses and nutrient concentration
(total phosphorus and nitrogen) in streams.

Pesticides could become a major source of non-
point pollution from forests and range lands. Inci-
dents over the past several years have shown that
indiscriminate use of pesticides, either in the type,
quantity used, or method or timing of application can
lead to severe water quality problems. The use of
pesticides on forest and range lands is primarily for
control of undesirable insects and vegetation. Re-
search has shown that pesticides applied in the proper

amount, at the proper time, and by the proper
method are effective in controlling undesirable insects
or vegetation, and cause little pollution.'!5 Most pol-
lution that does occur results from direct application
(drift) to bodies of water or from heavy rainfall
within a short time of application. In either situation,
the source for pollution exists for only a short period,
and the pollutant is immediately diluted when it
mixes with uncontaminated water.

Thermal pollution, the warming of stream or lake
waters above a given temperature, also can occur
from land management activities. Water temperature
is affected by direct exposure to the sun’s energy
through absorption by the materials that make up the
streambed. Any activity that opens up more of a
stream or lake to the direct radiation of the sun can
have an adverse effect on water temperature. This
could be caused by road or other construction,
timber-harvesting operations, overgrazing by live-
stock or wildlife, or fire. Even when temperatures are
raised as a result of these activities, there is some
question of whether warming of streams should be
considered as pollution in all situations. Warming
also can occur as a result of sedimentation (shallow
water warms more easily than deep water) or in-
creased concentration of suspended matter, either
organic or inorganic. Although there is some warm-
ing as a result of absorption by the suspended par-
ticles, the greater effect of pollution is generally that
caused by the sediment or decomposition of the
organic matter.

Many other activities that take place on forest,
range, and associated lands also cause nonpoint
source pollution. Some of these activities, and the
kinds of pollution they cause, are: off-road vehicle
use-sediment (grazing-sediment, bacteria, nutrients,
and organic material); developed or concentrated
recreation use-sediment (bacteria and pathogens); oil,
gas, and mineral exploration-sediment (oil and chemi-
cals). Pollution from these sources is not a problem
on a national basis, but, again, it can be critical in
local situations.

A study by the Environmental Protection Agency!®
identified agriculture, urban runoff, and individual
waste disposal systems (septic tanks, etc.) as nonpoint

'SU.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Silvicultural chemi-

cals and protection of water quality. 1977.

'6U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, national water qual-
ity inventory, now reflects “best management practices” as the best
method of controlling nonpoint source pollution. The concept of
best management practices is based on the premise that if land
management activities are carried out under the best management
practices known, the level of nonpoint pollution will be acceptable.
Management decisions incorporating best management practices
for grazing, silviculture, mining, and construction will determine to
a large extent the success of the control and abatement of nonpoint
source pollution from forest and range lands.

307

sources of pollution in 68, 62, and 43 percent, respec-
tively, of the hydrologic basins inventoried through-
out the Nation. The same study showed mining and
silviculture as nonpoint sources in 30 and 15 percent
of the basins, respectively. As one would expect, the
proportion of the basins affected by the latter two
activities is highest in those regions where mining and
silviculture are most widespread. Again, it is impor-
tant to note that only several of the individual basins
listed as being affected by these activities are actually
problem areas. And the severity of the problem
within that basin, or even within that State, is gen-
erally minor in relation to other sources of nonpoint
pollution. Pollution from these sources can be signifi-
cant on a local basis, however. These and other
nonpoint sources of pollution and types of pollution
are summarized in table 7.14 in relation to the various
regions of the Nation.

The most serious effects of nonpoint source pollu-
tion from forests and range lands are expected to be
on recreational uses in remote areas where land man-
agement activities are currently taking place. Other
serious effects can occasionally be expected in rela-
tion to fish spawning areas and in municipal water-
sheds for small towns where water treatment facilities
are minimal. Impacts on health will generally be
minor, but the use and enjoyment of water bodies
within forests and range lands are likely to be reduced
by nonpoint source pollution. If the effects of this
pollution are severe enough, local recreation-based
ventures could be affected economically.

The increased emphasis on controlling nonpoint
source pollution has had a direct impact on manage-
ment activities and uses of forest and range lands.
Water quality objectives are being considered when
making decisions about land use and management.
Land and resource plans and implementation oppor-
tunities for all proposed projects must recognize
potential nonpoint source pollution, and insure that
all possible means are taken to prevent such pollu-
tion.

This increased emphasis also requires a new way of
thinking about nonpoint source water quality stand-
ards and about how to meet them. Management
activities now reflect “best management practices” as
the best method of controlling nonpoint source pollu-
tion. The concept of best management practices is
based on the premise that if land management activi-
ties are carried out under the best management prac-
tices known, the level of nonpoint pollution will be
acceptable. Management decisions incorporating best
management practices for grazing, silviculture, min-
ing, and construction will determine to a large extent
the success of the control and abatement of nonpoint
source pollution from forest and range lands.

308

Figure 7.11

Relationships Between Land Use and Nutrient Concentrations in Streams

| }> 90% Forest

> 75% Forest

50% Forest

> 75% Cleared Unproductive
> 50% Cleared Unproductive
Mixed

| > 50% Range: Remainder Predominantly Forest

0.1 2 3 4
Total Phosphorus Total Nitrogen
Concentration, in Milligrams per Liter

Sediment from soil erosion is a major pollutant in many streams and
reservoirs.

Opportunities for Mitigating
Water Problems

As indicated in preceding sections, water problems
generally fall into three categories: inadequate sup-
plies, flood damage, and low quality. Management of
forests and rangelands presents opportunities for
mitigating each of these problems. It is obvious that
forest and range land management offers a solution
to these problems only in conjunction with other
approaches, but it can in some instances be a signifi-
cant element in an overall approach that includes
both structural and nonstructural problems and
mechanisms.

Extending or Increasing Water Supplies

Of the 106 water resource subregions in the country
as defined by the Water Resources Council (fig. 7.1),
several are expected to experience severe water short-
ages, both currently and in future years. Figures 7.8
and 7.9 show the subregions by water depletion
categories for mean and dry years. It is evident that,
in the future, water must be used more efficiently or
overall supplies must be increased in many sub-
regions if the economic and social impacts from water
shortages are to be avoided.

One thing is certain: there is no single solution.
Across the Nation, there is remarkable diversity in
the role that water plays. Over most of the West,
water is scarce and must be managed carefully — and
the detailed traditions and laws that have evolved
dictate the use of water. In other areas, flooding is
more of a problem than drought. There are many
other examples.

The President’s proposed water policy contains
water conservation as its cornerstone. In many areas,
usable supplies could be increased significantly
through more efficient use of water. As indicated in
the discussion of demand for water earlier in this
chapter, the quantity of water demanded in the future
for steam electric cooling and manufacturing is ex-
pected to decline substantially in some water resource
regions because of environmental regulations that
require cooling towers and recycling of processing
water. These are examples of lowered demands for
water that could be repeated for other uses and
achieved in other ways.

Before discussing specific situations where water
could be used more efficiently, the area of incen-
tives for more efficient use will be discussed. Two
broad types of incentives are possible to encourage
water users to be more efficient: (1) economic, and
(2) regulatory.

Probably the best way to implement incentives by
economic means is through the price system. Cur-
rently, most water pricing systems are not based on
incremental or marginal costs. Some suppliers charge
a flat fee regardless of amounts used. Others offer
quantity discounts. Prices for irrigation water are
often set below the cost of amortizing and operating a
delivery system. In the West, users of water are
typically awarded a right to divert and use water free
of charge, and they can disregard the value that some
other use might yield. In many cases, there are no
means for the sale of water rights to bring about a
reallocation to higher value uses.!7

'7 National Water Commission. Water policies for the future,
final report to the President and Congress. U.S. Gov. Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 259 p. 1973.

Conservation is the cornerstone of meeting our future demands for
water.

There is strong evidence that metering and pricing
have substantial impacts on water use. For example,
the introduction of metering reduced water use by 36
percent in Boulder, Colo.!8 The National Water Com-
mission concluded that systems of pricing and user
charges that recover the fuli cost of water services
directly from users will conserve water supplies,
discourage premature investment in water develop-
ment projects, reduce financial burdens now borne by
nonusers and, most importantly, make more efficient
use of scarce resources.

The alternative to creating economic incentives is
regulation. Much of the increased use of recycling
techniques in manufacturing has resulted from re-
quirements to meet environmental regulations.

If the user were responsible for conserving water
through economic incentive or regulation, conserva-
tion would be likely in several areas. Making irriga-
tion more efficient offers the best opportunities for
significant water conservation. Considerable savings
are possible in reducing losses from water trans-
mission. Losses from both seepage and evapotrans-
piration are quite high in some areas. Possible solu-
tions include lining channels and laterals, converting
from surface flooding to trickle irrigation, using
underground storage in years of high runoff, and
phreatophyte management. The latter may have envi-
ronmental effects that must be considered.

'8 Hanke, S. H. Demand for water under dynamic conditions.
Water Resources Research, 6 (5):1253-61.

309

Domestic water use can be made more efficient by
controlling leaks in transmission systems, installing
water meters and charging according to use, design-
ing plumbing fixtures and appliances that use less
water, initiating public information programs, re-
cycling municipal and industrial waste water, and by
water pollution control.

Water use in manufacturing could be made more
efficient through additional recycling procedures.
Recent technological advances have allowed the steel
industry to reduce water requirements by 90 percent
in water-short areas. Perhaps the greatest saving can
be achieved by reusing cooling water, which accounts
for more than 65 percent of all industrial withdrawals.

Among the opportunities for increasing usable
water supplies in a given area are: Interbasin trans-
fers, desalting, precipitation modification, and water-
shed management.

The physical transfer of water from one watershed
to another has been a common means of augmenting
supply. For example, part of Denver’s water supply
comes from the Colorado River Basin, which is
across the Continental Divide from Denver. Los
Angeles imports water from the Great Basin, the
Colorado Basin, and the Sacramento Basin. Each
project must be evaluated on its individual merits. To
properly evaluate interbasin transfers, it is necessary
to examine the legal framework, the ways of protect-
ing the exporting basin, the economics of the project,
the social and environmental implications, and the
institutional arrangements necessary to implement
the project.

Because of increasing water demands and relatively
fixed natural supplies of water, it is likely that desalt-
ing will become significant in the future, especially
with smaller plants that have less than 10 million
gallons per day capacity, in areas where alternative
supplies are costly, where there are natural supplies of
brackish water, where existing supplies need to be
upgraded, or where point sources of dissolved solids
can be treated. Desalting costs have been reduced
from approximately $7.00 per 1,000 gallons in 1952,
to approximately $1.00 per 1,000 gallons for seawater
conversion, and $0.50 for brackish water plants at the
present time. The projects that are energy-intensive
will be less attractive as energy costs increase.!9

The prospects for successful modification of rain-
fall and snowfall patterns to increase yields look
promising. Cost estimates ranging from $1.00 to
$2.30 per acre foot of additional runoff have been
cited. However, these represent only the direct capital
and operation costs, and do not include indirect

'9 Water policies for the future, final report to the President and
to Congress, op. cit.

310

economic environmental, or ecologically related
costs. Uncertainties about both direct and indirect
effects, as well as many legal and institutional impli-
cations have caused much controversy about precipi-
tation modification. The National Water Commission
concluded that precipitation modification has poten-
tial in certain limited areas, but available information
is insufficient to develop a comprehensive national
policy.

Forest and range lands are important sources of
the Nation’s water supply. Commercial and noncom-
mercial forests occupy about one-third of the total
land area of the Nation. Forest lands receive a yearly
average of 42 inches compared to 24 inches annually
on all other lands. Forest lands yield 17 inches of
annual runoff compared to 4 inches from other
lands.2°

Watershed management of forest and range land
can augment water supplies by enhancing the natural
recharge of ground water, by slowing the rate of
overland flow, and by improving the infiltration rate
through proper vegetative and cultural practices.

Watershed protection and management is needed
not only to ensure the optimum combination of water
quantity and quality at a given location, but also to
protect and enhance land resources such as soil and
vegetation. For some situations, increasing the water
supply through land management might be the best
way to succeed. In other cases, these techniques
create adverse side effects which should not be
overlooked.

Small patchy openings created by timber harvests catch consider-
able quantities of snow, increasing water yields.

20 Sopper, William E. Watershed management. Prepared for the
National Water Commission. Natl. Tech. Inf. Service, Springfield,
Va., No. PB206670. 2 p. 1971.

Most of the Nation’s high-quality surface water
comes from watersheds which support forest vegeta-
tion. Trees and other vegetation affect the water
balance of a drainage basin in two ways. First, tree
branches and leaves of plants may intercept up to 30
percent of total precipitation during light-intensity
storms. This part of the precipitation is evaporated
without adding to soil moisture storage. Second,
plant roots absorb large volumes of soil water which
are transported through the stem and removed
through the leaves as transpiration. Since streamflow
is a residual after all evaporative processes have been
satisfied, early foresters and watershed scientists rea-
soned that water yield could be increased by reducing
evaporative losses. Reducing vegetation density is the
most efficient way to reduce evaporative losses.

Increases in streamflow after various intensities of
forest cutting have been demonstrated in many parts
of the country. Those individual studies have been
summarized by Hibbert?!, Lull??, Sopper?3}, Douglas
and Swank?4, and Anderson et al.25 The following
general conclusions have been presented:

1. Large increases in water yield following
forest cutting occur in areas where
(a) precipitation is abundant, (b) vege-
tation is dense, and (c) sufficient solar
energy is available to evaporate large
volumes of water.”° The largest increases
measured the first year after removal of
all woody vegetation were 16.8 inches in
western North Carolina,2”7 and 18.2
inches in western Oregon.?8

21 Hibbert, Alden R. Forest treatment effect on water yield. /n
Forest Hydrology. William E. Sopper and Howard W. Lull (eds.),
p. 527-543. Pergamon Press, New York. 1967.

22Lull, Howard W. Management possibilities for water yield
increases. Proc. Joint FAO/USSR Int. Symposium on influences
and watershed management, p. 168-178. 1970.

23 Sopper, W. E. Watershed management: water supply augmen-
tation by watershed management in wildland areas. Report to the
National Water Commission. Natl. Tech. Inf. Service, Springfield,
Va. 149 p. 1971.

24Douglas, James E., and Wayne T. Swank. Streamflow
modification through management of eastern forests. U.S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture, Forest Service. Research Paper SE-94, 15 p.
1972.

25 Anderson, Henry W., Marvin D. Hoover, and Kenneth G.
Reinhart. Forests and water: effects of forest management on
floods, sedimentation, and water supply. U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Forest Service. General Tech. Rep. PSW-18, 115 p.
1976.

26 Lull, op. cit.

27 Hoover, M. D. Effect of removal of forest vegetation upon
water yields. American Geophysical. Union Transactions, 6:969-
975. 1944.

28 Rothacher, Jack. Increases in water yield following clear-cut
logging in the PNW. Water Resources Research, 6:653-658. 1970.

2. Selective tree cutting has little or no
effect on water yield unless the cutting
intensity exceeds 20 percent.?9

3. When the cutting intensity exceeds 20
percent, water yield increases are pro-
portional to the percentage reduction in
growing stock. Maximum yield in-
creases are achieved by clearcutting.>°

4. In the eastern hardwood region, water
yield increases are maximum the first
year after timber harvesting; increases
gradually diminish as the forest is regen-
erated.3! The duration of yield increases
after clearcutting in the eastern hard-
wood region is highly variable. The long-
est time for a clearcut experimental
watershed is about 40 years; the shortest
about 5 years.32

5. In the mixed conifer zones of the Rocky
Mountains, the most efficient way to
increase water yield is removing the
trees in small patches which together
occupy about half of the watershed
area.3} Because of slow regrowth and
snow redistribution into the small open-
ings, yield increases are expected to per-
sist for up to 40 years.34

6. Water yield increases after forest re-
moval are greatest in year of abundant
precipitation and least in years of
drought, especially in regions where
evapotranspiration exceeds moisture
supplies.35

7. Because deciduous trees are dormant for
part of the year and thus use less water
than conifers, converting from decidu-
ous species to conifers reduces the an-
nual water yield.36

8. In areas where moisture supplies are
limited during the growing season, con-
verting from deep-rooted native species

29 Hibbert, op. cit.

30/bid.

31 Kovner, J. L. Evapotranspiration and water yields following
forest cutting and natural regrowth. Society of American Foresters
Proceedings. p. 106-110. 1956.

32 Douglass and Swank, op. cit.

33 bid.

34 [bid.

35 Lull, Howard W., and K. G. Reinhart. Increasing water yield
in the Northeast by management of forested watersheds. U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Res. Pap. NE-66, 45 p.
1967.

36 Swank, Wayne T., and James E. Douglass. Streamflow greatly
reduced by converting deciduous hardwood stands to pine.
Science, 185: 857-859. 1974.

Sit

such as chaparral to a shallower-rooted
species such as grass causes increases in
water yield.3’

Water yield from headwater streams can be aug-
mented by reducing vegetation density by 20 percent
or more. The following sections explore the inherent
potentials in the forest and range environment for
increasing regional water supplies. None of these
estimates fully consider all the many environmental
issues involved.

In one study,38 the energy balance method was used
to estimate the potential for augmenting water sup-
plies through forest management in States east of the
Mississippi River. Estimates from this study are
adjusted here in table 7.15 to include all of the forests
east of the 100th Meridian. These values are based on
the assumption of complete forest regulation for
increased water supplies and a rotation age of 120
years.

The values in table 7.15 are considered applicable
to regions but not necessarily to individual water-
sheds. It has also been estimated that even-age man-
agement of some Southeastern watersheds could
increase water yield considerably more than the
values in table 7.15.39

Timing of increased water yield is important if
reservoirs are not available to store the extra water

Table 7.15 — Estimated potential for increasing
water yield from forested lands in the eastern

States
Forest Average annual yield
Forest type increase
Thousand inehes Thousand
acres acre-feet
White-red-jack pine 12,666.7 475
Spruce-fir 21,484.5 1,465
Longleaf-slash pine 17,316.6 433
Loblolly-shortleaf pine | 50,245.1 1,465
Oak-pine 34,948.6 582
Oak-hickory 115,268.7 961
Oak-gum-cypress 29,380.9 490
Elm-ash-cottonwood 26,120.5 435
Maple-beech-birch 35,271.6 444
Aspen-birch 20,582.1 72

373,285.3

37 Hibbert, Alden R., Edwin A. Davis, and Thomas E. Brown.
Managing chaparral for water and other resources in Arizona.
Proc. Watershed Management Symposium, ASCE Irrigation and
Drainage Division, Logan, Utah, p. 445468. 1975.

38 Lee, Richard. Opportunities for increasing water supplies in
the eastern United States by vegetation management. Unpublished
Rep. On file at the Forest Hydrology Laboratory, Wenatchee,
Wash., 78 p. 1977.

39 Anderson, Hoover, and Reinhart, op. cit.

oi

until it is needed. Research in the East indicates that a
large part of the increased flow occurs in later
summer when flow is normally lowest.4° Some
streams which dry up in late summer flow continu-
ously after vegetation on the basin is removed.*!

The potential for augmenting water supplies in the
western United States has received considerable atten-
tion during recent years and estimates vary according
to the assumptions used. An intensive study by a U.S.
Senate Select Committee*? evaluated the opportunity
for increasing water supplies in the 17 western States
through vegetation management. This study indi-
cated a potential initial water yield increase of about
12 million acre feet per year. Another study* esti-
mated that, in the western States (exclusive of the
Pacific coastal areas), the potential annual increase in
water yield from all cover types with sustained yield
and multiple-use considerations, but with intensive
management for water yield improvement, would be
about 4.1 million acre-feet above natural levels. The
estimated average annual cost of producing this much
water was $21.42 per acre foot at 1967 price levels.
However, the greatest potential appeared on com-
mercial forest land; intensive management for water
yield of about 66 million acres of commercial forest
land in the West could potentially increase annual
water yield by 1.8 million acre-feet at a 1967 equiv-
alent cost of $1.23 per year per acre-foot.

In a more recent analysis, the potential for increas-
ing water supplies in Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
Alaska, and (northern) California was estimated.*4
These estimates, by precipitation zone and timber
type, are presented in table 7.16. The values are based
on the following assumptions: (1) Water yield in-
creases from small experimental watersheds can be
expanded to large areas, (2) rotation age will be
shortened and the harvest of old-growth inventory
will accelerate, and (3) the forest harvest will be by
clearcutting.

40 [bid.

41 Kochenderfer, James N., and Gerald M. Aubertin. Effects of
management practices on water quality and quantity: Fernow
Experimental Forest, West Virginia. Jn Municipal Water Manage-
ment Symposium Proc., U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service. General Tech. Rep. NE-13, p. 14-24. 1975.

42U.S. Senate Select Committee on National Water Resources.
Water resources activities in the United States: Evapotranspiration
reduction. Part 2: Vegetation management. Comm. Print No. 20,
86th Congress, 2nd Session, p. 13-42. 1960.

43Reigner, I. C., R. C. Maloney, and E. G. Dunford.
Unpublished Rep. On file at U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service, Washington, D.C. 1969.

44 Wooldridge, David D. Opportunities for increasing water
supplies in the Pacific Coast States by vegetation management.
Unpublished Rep. on file at the Forest Hydrology Laboratory,
Wenatchee, Wash., 130 p. 1978.

Table 7.16 — Summary of estimated annual yield increases which could be achieved in the
Northwest through vegetation management

Hydrologic zone

Coastal rain zone
Puget-Willamette rain zone
Warm snow zone

East Cascades snow zone
Interior cold snow zone

Fir-spruce

Oe ANE

Source: Wooldridge, David D. Opportunities for increasing water supplies in
the Pacific Coast States by vegetation management. Unpublished rep. on file at

Timing of increased yield in the Northwest varies
with the precipitation zone. In the rain zones, about
80 percent of the increase occurs during the wet
winter months.45 Increases amounting to 0.8 inches
during the low flow months of July-September*® are
important for instream needs. In the snow zones,
most of the yield increase occurs during spring
snowmelt.

Estimated potentials for increasing water yields in
the commercial forests of the western States by
timber type are summarized in table 7.17. These
values are based on several summary reports.4”. 48. 49, 50
The estimated increases are based on the difference
between no management and specific management
for water yield increases.

The chaparral type, which contains several species
of shrubsize plants, covers approximately 29 million
acres in southern California, Arizona, and New Mex-
ico. Intensive research during the past few years
indicates that opportunities for increasing water sup-
plies from the chaparral type are excellent under
certain conditions. In areas where shrub cover ex-
ceeds 30 percent, average annual precipitation ex-
ceeds 16 inches, and soils are deep, substantial
increases in water supplies can be produced.5! The
most effective treatment is to eradicate the shrubs
from about 60 percent of the total treatable area and

45 Rothacher, op. cit.

46 Ibid.

47 Wooldridge, op. cit.

48 Hibbert, Alden R. Vegetation management for water yield
improvement in the Colorado River Basin: Summary and
assessment. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,
Rocky Mtn. Forest and Range Exp. Sta. (In press).

49 Leaf, Charles F. Watershed management in the central and
southern Rocky Mountains: A summary of the status of our
knowledge of vegetation types. U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service. Res. Pap. RM-142, 28 p. 1975.

50Sopper, W. E., op. cit.

5! Hibbert, Davis, and Brown, op. cit.

Vegetation type

Douglas-fir, hemlock, Sitka spruce
Douglas-fir, hardwoods

Ponderosa and lodgepole pine)
Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, )
ponderosa pine, white pine

Annual yield increase
Thousand
acre-feet

2,100
400

)
2,570

)

the Forest Hydrology Laboratory, Wenatchee, Wash., 130 p. 1978.

Table 7.17 — Estimated potential for increasing
water yield from forested lands in the
western States

Average annual water

Forest type yield increase

Thousand Toh Thousand
acres Rees acre-feet
Douglas-fir 38,240.2 1,912
Ponderosa pine 33,670.7 420
Western white pine 565.9 21
Fir-spruce 113,362.9 5,668
Hemlock-Sitka spruce 20,139.9 755
Larch 2,807.2 70
Lodgepole pine 21,217.6 442
Redwood 786.0

Source: Forest Service estimates derived from:

Hibbert, Alden R. Vegetation management for water yield improvement in the
Colorado River Basin: summary and assessment. Rocky Mountain For. and. Range
Exp. Sta., (in press) Wooldridge, David D., see source note table 7.16; Leaf, Charles
F. Watershed management in the central and southern Rocky Mountains: A
summary of the status of our knowledge of vegetation types. U.S. Forest Service,
Res. Paper. RM-142, 28 p. 1975; and Sopper, W. E. Watershed management: water
supply augmentation by watershed management in wildland areas. Report to the
National Water Commission. NTIS, Springfield, Va. 149 p. 1971.

establish a grass cover. Research has demonstrated
that wildlife benefits from these treatments and that
fire protection is made easier.5? An economic analysis
with actual conversion costs and assumed benefits
indicated a net average annual return of $2.51 per
converted acre based on 1972 prices.53 It is estimated
that the annual cost of water production in the
chaparral type is $20.45 per acre-foot in California
and $18.00 per acre-foot in the Southern Rocky
Mountain region, based on 1967 price levels.%4

52 [bid.
53 [bid.
54 Reigner, et. al., op. cit.

313

If a major program is implemented to increase
water yield from the entire chaparral area, about 6
million acres could be converted to grass cover. The
increase in water yield would average about 1.2
million acre-feet each year. The median value, based
on measured run-off in Arizona, would be about 0.7
million acre-feet.

Other prescriptions in the Southwest would, if
implemented, augment surface water supplies. One
practice which has received considerable study is the
eradication of phreatophyte vegetation along streams.
Under certain conditions, phreatophytes transpire up
to 6 or 7 acre-feet of water per acre of surface area.*5
Eradicating deep-rooted plants and substituting shal-
lower rooted species in areas where water tables area
few feet below the surface can save part of this water.
To be effective, the cleared area must be mowed,
plowed, or sprayed with herbicides periodically to
prevent the deep-rooted vegetation from recapturing
the site.

It is estimated that an intensive phreatophyte erad-
ication and control program applied on 8 percent of
the areas occupied by phreatophytic vegetation would
save 0.9 million acre-feet of water each year.56 The
cost of clearing, control, and maintenance was esti-
mated at $14.00 annually for each acre-foot of water
produced.

The opportunity to increase water yield from areas
supporting sagebrush and pinyon-juniper is minimal
because of the dry climate.

Estimates of increased water supplies presented
here are based on the expected difference in runoff
between no forest management and specific manage-
ment for water yield increases. The values presented
in table 7.15 through 7.17 should be considered as the
upper limits which could theoretically be achieved
and not the expected changes which will be produced
and sustained through planned environmentally
acceptable multiple-use management over the next
half century.

Flood Damage Management

The Department of the Army and the Department
of Agriculture have active flood control, flood pre-
vention, and watershed protection. Expenditures on
structural measures such as dams, levees, and chan-
nels installed under these programs have averaged
over $600 million per year over the last 10 years.
There are, of course, many additional opportunities

55Horton, Jerome S., and C. J. Campbell. Management of
phreatophyte and riparian vegetation for maximum multiple use
values. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Research
Paper RM-117, 23 p. 1974.

56 Reigner, Maloney, and Dunford, op. cit.

314

for flood control structures. For example, a recent
analysis5’? indicated that it should be possible to
reduce annual losses by at least 20 percent if these
structures could be built rapidly and cheaply enough.

In recent years, increasing emphasis has been
placed on the use of nonstructural measures to miti-
gate flood damage. These nonstructural measures
include flood insurance; flood-proofing of structures;
flood plain regulation; acquisition of flood plain
lands for recreation, fish and wildlife, and other
public purposes; public information programs; tax
incentives; and improved forecasting and warning
systems.

In many cases, a combination of structural and
nonstructural measures will likely be most effective.
Programs that are developed should give full con-
sideration to the specific situation being faced, and
the attendant decisions should be focused on meeting
specified objectives at the lowest possible cost.

A land treatment program should be part of any
flood management effort. Proper watershed protec-
tion helps reduce flooding by reducing or delaying the
sedimentation of flood-retarding structures and
stream channels. Land treatment can also affect the
amount and rate of flood run-off and can comple-
ment other structural and nonstructural measures.

One opportunity to reduce flood damages is to
remove floatable debris from flood plains. This is
especially true for floods with recurrence intervals of
up to 25 years, where most debris is lying loose in the
flood plain before the flood occurs. For floods with
longer return periods, much of the debris is made
available to the flood, for example by the water
undercutting banks, so large trees and brush are
dropped into the floodwater and carried downstream.
Debris left by logging, land clearing for development,
construction, or other services could be removed
through the various manpower programs of public
service groups. Increased technical and financial assis-
tance to owners of private forest and range land also
could reduce the amount of floatable debris. More
importantly, education of groups or industries that
create this debris could prevent much of the debris
from accumulating.

Pollution Control — Point Source

The strategy for controlling point source pollution
has undergone a major change since the late 1960’s
when large scale pollution control efforts first began.
The initial efforts in controlling pollution from muni-
cipalities and industries were based on maintaining

57 White, Gilbert F., and J. Eugene Hass. Assessment of research
on natural hazards. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
1977.

the existing quality of receiving waters. With the
passage of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments of 1972, however, the control was
shifted to effluent standards that were developed for
each category of discharger. Under the provisions of
this act, the Environmental Protection Agency insti-
tuted the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination
System, a permit system that regulated each point
discharge in terms of the quantity of each specified
pollutant. This shift in strategy and the implementa-
tion of the permit system enabled water quality to be
improved rather than simply maintained.

The Clean Water Act of 1977 (P.L. 92-217) has
further refined the strategy controlling point source
pollution. Municipalities are now required to provide
waste treatment at least equivalent to secondary
treatment by using the most practicable waste treat-
ment technology. Also, industries are required to use
the best technology economically available for toxic
pollutants and the best conventional pollutants and
control technology for conventional pollutants. Per-
mits for regulation are still to be issued under the
National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System to
potential polluters, be they individuals, corporations,
municipalities, or State or Federal agencies.

Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Con-
trol Act Amendments of 1972 also requires water
quality management plans that: (1) Identify areas in
need of municipal and industrial waste treatment
facilities, (2) establish priorities for constructing such
facilities, and (3) identify the nature, scope, and
extent of nonpoint sources of water pollution as well
as ways to control them. Though the “208” plans have
not been completed, the National Pollutant Dis-
charge Elimination System has been effective in
reducing point source pollution. For example, con-
struction of another municipal waste treatment facil-
ity may no longer be as beneficial to water quality as
implementing practices to control nonpoint source
pollution on some stream segments. Although point
sources are more easily controlled than nonpoint
sources, it is generally more expensive to do so, and
control of the last portion of point source pollution
may not be cost-effective with respect to the nonpoint
source pollution.

Pollution Control — Nonpoint Source

It is inevitable that water quality objectives will
have an increasingly important role in the manage-
ment of forests and rangelands, especially with respect
to nonpoint sources of pollution. Through Section
208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments, efforts are being made to identify the

sources of nonpoint pollution, to determine the extent
and impact of these pollutants on water quality, and
to prescribe control methods. Nonpoint source pol-
lution control is primarily a State responsibility for
which the States are preparing “208” plans. Whereas
previous nonpoint pollution control efforts were
aimed at meeting individual States’ water quality
standards, the Clean Water Act of 1977 recognized
the concept of best management practices as an
acceptable approach to controlling this type of pol-
lution. The Clean Water Act also recognizes that land
management must be practiced if we are to continue
to provide an adequate supply of food, fiber, and
minerals.

Best management practices are designed to prevent
as much pollution as possible from entering a stream
or lake. Nonpoint source pollution is diffuse, so
collection and treatment is difficult and expensive, if
not impossible. Even where nonpoint source control
projects are deemed economically and technically
feasible, they may not be warranted on some stream
segments because pollution from natural, uncontrol-
lable sources will prevent the achievement of some
goals stated in the Federal Water Pollution Control
Act Amendments.

Best management practices with respect to forests
and rangelands must address the various activities
that take place on these lands, including logging, road
construction, treatment of vegetation by cutting or
burning or by use of pesticides or fertilizers, outdoor
recreation, grazing of livestock and wildlife, and off-
road vehicle use. If best management practices are to
be effective, they must be defined and accepted by
Federal and State agencies in cooperation with pri-
vate industry, organizations, and individuals.

However, three important concerns relating to best
management practices still must be addressed: (1) The
definition of the practices must fit local conditions;
(2) standards must be set to judge compliance and to
evaluate effectiveness; and (3) it must be determined
if best management practices constitute compliance
with relevant State water quality standards. A recent
survey of streamside management zone statutes and
ordinances indicated that “pollutant levels from non-
point sources have not been adequately quantified in
such a way as to become standards for inclusion in
legislation.”58

On most public lands, best management practices
will be defined by appropriate Federal and State
agencies and incorporated into land and resource

°8U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, and the U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency. Streamside management zone,
statutes and ordinances. Criteria and institutional arrangements
serving water quality objectives on State and Private forest lands.
U.S. Gov. Printing Office, March 1978.

315

management plans. Logging contractors, grazing per-
mittees, and other “permitted” users will be subject to
the performance standards specified. Technical assis-
tance and consultation are available from land man-
agement agency personnel.

There is a need for considerable technical and
financial assistance to implement best management
practices on privately-owned forests and rangelands.
The Rural Clean Water Program established under
the Clean Water Act and the Cooperative Forestry
Assistance Act (P.L. 95-313) both provide for this
type of assistance. The Rural Clean Water Program is
expected to provide for cost-sharing contracts with
individual landowners for installing best management
practices in accordance with approved “208” plans in
1979. This would be the first large-scale appropria-
tion earmarked for control of nonpoint source pollu-
tion. Work done under this program will be on a
priority basis and by project area as identified in the
State plans.

The Cooperative Forestry Assistance Act provides
for technical and financial assistance to protect or
improve soil fertility on non-Federal forest lands, and
the quality, quantity, and timing of water yields.
Although the guidelines have not yet been prepared
for this Act, it is assured that practices to achieve
these objectives will first be carried out on high
priority areas.

The cost of significantly reducing all aspects of
nonpoint source pollution across the Nation is not
known, but the figure is very high. For example, in
Iowa, a State program pays at least 75 percent ona
cost-sharing basis to implement permanent soil and
water conservation practices. Iowa has estimated that
it would cost nearly $1.7 billion to install necessary
soil erosion measures. Other sources of nonpoint
pollution would be reduced only incidentally as they
are related to sediment. The State of Pennsylvania
estimates that 2,021 miles of major streams need
rehabilitation because of acid drainage from aban-
doned mines, sometimes combined with other pol-
lutants. Officials there estimate that $3 billion is
needed to restore them. Again, other nonpoint source
pollutants are only affected incidentally.°?

Clearly, the best control practice for nonpoint
source pollution is to prevent those pollutants from
entering a stream or lake. Prevention is also much
more cost-effective than restoration.

Technical and Financial Assistance

Fifty-five percent, or nearly 860 million acres, of
the Nation’s forest and range land is in State or

59 The Comptroller General of the United States, op. cit.

316

private ownership. In many watersheds and river
basins, especially in the eastern United States, this
proportion is significantly greater. By virtue of this
proportion alone, these lands have important impli-
cations for the management of water and related land
resources. The management or mismanagement of
these lands can, and does, have a significant impact
on water quality and sedimentation of stream chan-
nels and reservoirs, and can significantly increase or
reduce the productivity and fertility of soils.

Private landowners have several opportunities to
receive technical or financial assistance or both for
water and related land resource problems. Local
organizations, within authorized watershed projects,
need help in planning and installing forestry measures
for watershed protection and flood prevention. Assis-
tance is also needed by Federal-State-local groups to
investigate the conservation, development, and man-
agement of water and related resources on a river
basin basis. Many rural communities need assistance
in improving local economic, environmental, and
social situations through the orderly development,
improvement, conservation, and use of forest and
related resources. Individual owners and municipal-
ities need assistance in designing best management
practices to reduce nonpoint source pollution and to
protect or improve soil fertility and the quality,
quantity, and timing of water yields from non-Federal
forest lands. These or other natural elements also
create a need for emergency planning and treatment
to improve or restore the hydrologic condition of
impaired watersheds.

Research

Research has contributed greatly to the progress
and accumulated knowledge related to managing this
Nation’s water and related land resources. Consider-
able information is now available for assessing water
supply and distribution, trends in consumptive and
nonconsumptive use, seasonality problems, and water
quality. Additional research on forest and range
lands is needed, however, before methods are devised
to alleviate other water-related problems:

1. Research on techniques to reduce con-
sumptive use. A number of approaches
can be used, including riparian zone
management, more efficient irrigation
methods, development of effective and
practical evaporation suppressants, and
vegetation management to minimize
evapotranspiration. For example, cur-
rent knowledge is limited on how the
composition and density of vegetative
cover influence surface runoff. Needed

is a better understanding of how water
yield is influenced by manipulating
vegetation growing under different soil
and climatic conditions. Also needed
are practical methods for the land
manager to achieve satisfactory water
yields.

Snow management to control snow
accumulation and snowmelt. More
knowledge is needed. on synthesizing
meteorology data with vegetative man-
agement and the design of engineering
structures to influence snow deposition,
snowpack stability, and rate of snow-
melt. Better methods for reducing sub-
limation and evaporation losses are
needed.

Flood control-abatement through use
of construction works and vegetation
management and protection of flood-
prone areas from economic loss. Ex-
panded research is needed in many
areas to develop management practices
for the riparian zone to sustain and
protect water resources, esthetics, wild-
life habitat, and recreation values.
Reduction of nonpoint source pollution
to enhance water quality. Many areas
need study, including erosion and sedi-
mentation control, identification of
basic contributors to nonpoint source
pollution, nutrient cycling processes,
atmospheric deposition, land manage-
ment alternatives, insect and disease,
fire, and the use of fertilizers and pesti-
cides. Although research has been con-
cerned with alleviation of pollution
resulting from forestry practices —
including prescribed fire, road construc-
tion, pesticide use, and mining on for-
ests and rangelands, additional studies
in these areas are needed. New research
should focus on: (a) The nature, extent,
and effects of pollutants resulting from
intensive timber culture; (b) develop-
ment of standardization procedures for
predicting pollutants resulting from
various land use practices; and (c) es-
tablishment of guidelines and practices
to minimize water pollution from for-
estry activities.

. Reclamation of disturbed lands. Intensi-

fied research is needed on developing
methods to minimize watershed dam-
age during exploratory testing, surface

mining activities, and other land-dis-
turbing operations. Advanced methods
in land forming and rapid revegetation
under a wide range of climatic, topo-
graphic, geologic, and soil conditions
are needed. Objectives should include
protecting the quality and quantity of
existing surface and ground water sup-
plies, conserving water during land-
disturbing and rehabilitation opera-
tions, and increasing available supplies
where feasible.

. Treatment and disposal of wastes on

land. Land areas are increasingly sought
for treatment and disposal of effluents,
sludges, and other wastes. More re-
search is needed on techniques for land
disposal of various wastes while main-
taining watershed values, including pro-
tection of water quality and possible
enhancement of water availability by
effluent irrigation.

. Taiga hydrology in Alaska. Additional

research is needed to develop land man-
agement practices for protection of
water resources in central Alaska. Data
developed would be applicable to about
100 million acres.

Acid precipitation — causes, effects,
and control. Little attention has been
given to this problem. Preliminary re-
search shows a continual degradation
in precipitation quality in much of the
United States. Concern has been raised
about possible adverse effects on forest
and aquatic ecosystems. Acid precipita-
tion is most evident in the Northeast,
but is spreading to other parts of the
Nation.

Insect and disease protection. Tech-
niques need to be developed to evaluate
how damage caused by insects, diseases,
and air pollutants relates to the quality
and quantity of water produced. Re-
search is also needed to develop pest
management systems consisting of var-
ious techniques and strategies to regu-
late impacts of insects and diseases on
water quality and land uses and values.
For example, improved survival and
growth of many woody plants on harsh
disturbed areas can result from intro-
duction of mycorrhizal fungi. Also to
be learned is the influence of various
pollutants on air quality and the sec-

317

ondary influence they have on land and
water through their effect on tree cover.
Protection from fire. Runoff from
severe storms on repeatedly burned
watersheds has been found to be as
much as 500 times that of adjacent
undisturbed watersheds. For many pub-
lic and private land managers, erosion
from burned watersheds is a very im-
portant factor in the productivity of
their management units because of ac-
celerated surface erosion and loss of
top soil following fire. Research must
provide the fire manager with the infor-
mation needed to make wise strategic
and tactical decisions in the protection
of watersheds. For the most part, these
are the same kinds of information
needed in managing timber lands. Addi-

dle or old age, go into a period of
decadence in which large quantities of
dead fuel accumulate within the indi-
vidual plants. At this period, they be-
come extremely flammable. Research
may be able to provide fire managers
with techniques to selectively burn
chaparral or other brush areas so that
the vegetative cover is continually kept
in a less flammable condition. In some
semiarid locations, riparian vegetation
results in a serious water loss. Research
can provide fire managers with the
knowledge and tools needed to manip-
ulate this vegetation. At the other ex-
treme, fire can be used to manage vege-
tation in the snow zone, allowing more
accumulation and slower melt.

tional information includes a knowl-
edge of the ecology of relatively short-
lived shrub species. Many chaparral
species are relatively nonflammable in
their youth, but when they achieve mid-

In a broad sense, research is the key to providing
the most desirable mix of water quality and quantity
production with the protection of vital natural re-
sources, and esthetic, social, and economic values.

Chapter 8. — Multiple Resource Interactions

In examining supply trends and opportunities to
enhance supplies of individual resources, the previous
chapters did not deal with the complex interactions
among resources because quantitative information on
renewable resource interactions is limited. Many
studies have examined the interaction between two
resources Over a small geographic area. These studies
are of little use, however, in quantifying the impacts
of resource interactions for a national assessment.
In spite of the difficulty of quantifying multiresource
interactions, it is essential to understand the potential
impacts of meeting future demand for one resource on
the capacity to increase supplies of other resources.
Analyses suggest that, with more intensive manage-
ment, supplies can be increased to meet nearly all
renewable resource products, but still to be examined
is the potential for meeting the combination of
resource demands from the resource base at reason-
able cost or without extensive environmental degra-
dation.

This chapter discusses the complexity of estimating
multiresource interactions, introduces an analytical
model which has the potential for quantifying these
interactions at regional and national levels, and
evaluates the capability of forest and range land to
increase supplies of renewable resource products.

Complexity of Estimating Renewable
Resource Supplies

The individual resources and uses discussed earlier
occur not in separate places on forest and range
lands, but rather in a great variety of combinations
and under a wide range of conditions. Land and
resource managers deal with this complexity along
with additional complicating factors such as different
ownerships and management goals. In some instances,
the production of two resources on an individual
unit of land is complementary. That is, management
activities to increase the production of one resource
will also increase the supply of the other. In other
instances, the two resources may be competitive.
Increases in the supply of one can only be accom-
plished at the cost of a reduction in the amount
available of the other. To fully evaluate the produc-
tive capacity of a tract of land, it may be necessary
to understand the interactions among. several
resources. For example, it may be desirable to know
what combinations of timber forage for domestic live-
stock and forage for wildlife can be grown. Further,
it may be desirable to know the impact of these
various combinations on storm runoff and contri-
bution of sediment to an adjacent stream. On any
particular area, interactions occur simultaneously in
at least two directions. That is, timber management

actions will affect the recreation resource, while at
the same time, recreation management activities will
affect timber production. These kinds of multiple
interactions are common onall forest and range lands.
To make a decision about the type of management
activities needed to obtain a given set of desired
outputs, the interactions among these uses must be
evaluated.!

For each resource, various activities are carried out
as a part of management. For example, “timber stand
improvement” is a management activity—or, more
properly, a category of activities—commonly prac-
ticed as timber management. Each activity—directly
or in combination with other activities—is intended
to bring about specific results measured in terms such
as animal unit months, million cubic feet of timber,
or recreation visitor days. In addition to the primary
intended result, there is normally a wide array of
associated results. To carry the example further,
timber stand improvement might result in increasing
the forage available for wildlife and reducing the
length of time snow will remain on the ground as
well as the primary result of increasing net growth
of usable timber.

Diagrammatically, these interactions can be illus-
trated as shown in figure 8.1.

' Cooper, C. F. Ecosystem models in watershed management. /n

The ecosystem concept in natural resource management. G. M.
Van Dyne (ed). Academic Press, New York. p. 309-324, 1969.

Figure 8.1

IV

Land Capability Mt
ll

Outdoor Recreation

Wildlife and Fish

wn
at Range Grazing
é
Timber
Water

Environmental Impacts

0% or 09 Yet es
ow <\ a= 0’ ow
aca oe LOG awe WN

econ
0a" ee
re)

Management Activities

321

For every management activity, there are potential
impacts on each of the resource outputs and associated
environmental effects. These will vary with the charac-
teristics of the land on which the activity is applied.
This diagram is misleadingly simple from the perspec-
tive of a national assessment. The variations in land
capability, existing resource conditions, and poten-
tial management practices combine to form many
thousands of potential output combinations even at
a highly aggregated level of analysis.

Quantifying Multiple Resource Interactions

It is necessary that these multiple resource inter-
actions be quantified to determine whether the
Nation’s forest and range lands can meet projected
resource demands at reasonable costs, both monetary
and environmental. A recently developed computer-
ized analytical model has the potential of quantifying
resource interactions at the regional level.2 This model
was developed in response to the need for a syste-
matic way to measure the impact of changes in the
level of any one or any combination of outputs or
services on the ability of the forest and range land
system to produce the remaining outputs or services.

In this model, the degree of interaction among the
the various resources is measured by the impact
that increasing one output has on the costs of pro-
ducing the remaining products. Using timber and
range, for example, the model will aggregate for a
region those areas where increasing the region’s soft-
wood timber supply raises the cost of producing
an increment of range grazing (in circumstances where
the two resources are competitive); it will also aggre-
gate those areas where increasing the timber supply
lowers the cost of providing an increment of grazing
(in circumstances where the two resources are com-
plementary). For purposes of this Assessment, the
model considers the interactions between changes in
softwood timber, hardwood timber, range grazing
of domestic animals, dispersed recreation, wild rumi-
nant grazing, water yield, sediment, and storm runoff.

For use of this model, the forest and range land
base was divided into approximately 5,000 resource
units. Resource units are a means of categorizing
land by its potential natural community, ownership
(four classes), productivity (four classes), and stocking
condition (four classes). For each resource unit, a
set of management levels was identified by combining
specific activities from a list of 53 management prac-
tices. Different management levels emphasize dif-

2Ashton, Peter, James Pickens, Coryell Ohlander and Bruce
Benninghoff—Many resources, many uses: a system analysis
approach to current and future renewable resource development.
Paper presented at the 15th Annual Conference of the American
Water Resources Association, Las Vegas, Nevada. September
24-28, 1979.

322

ferent management objectives and give preference to
different resource outputs.

In the absence of research studies which could be
used to estimate the outputs from all appropriate
management levels applied to each resource unit,
the best current information was gathered from
knowledgeable professionals. The basic premise of
this data collection effort was that such people with
strong backgrounds in applied research and resource
management could jointly specify production coeffi-
cients of the land base to form a consistent data base
suitable for evaluating natural resource use potential
at a national level.

Thirteen output measures from the process were

used in the analysis:
1. Herbage and browse production mea-
sured in pounds/acre/ year;
2. Net wood growth measured in cubic
feet/acre/ year;
3. Wood harvested measured in cubic
feet/acre/ year;
4. Domestic livestock grazing measured in
animal unit months (AUM)/acre/ year;
5. Wild ruminant grazing measured in ani-
mal unit months (AUM)/acre/ year;
6. Dispersed recreation use measured in
visitor-days/acre/ year;
7. Water yield measured in inches/ year;
8. Storm runoff measured in inches/ year;
9. Sediment yield measured in tons/acre/
year;
10. Life form-water measured by percent of
area;
11. Life form-ground measured by percent
of area;
12. Life form-shrubs measured by percent of
area;
13. Life form-trees measured by percent of
area.

For the analysis which follows, output and cost
estimates were converted to reflect the average output
and costs over a 50-year management period. This
conversion reflected the transition of lands to new
condition classes over this period of time.

This information was used as input to a linear
programming model to determine the level of manage-
ment for each resource unit that would minimize the
cost of producing targeted levels of outputs of timber
and range products while maintaining levels of other
goods and services.

Implications of Meeting Projected Regional
Timber and Range Grazing Demands

To illustrate the usefulness of this interaction
model, this section discusses the implications of

meeting projected regional timber and range grazing
demands, and their impact on other resource uses,
environmental effects, intensity of land use, and costs.
The demands for timber and range grazing serve as
the basic output requirements which the model must
achieve. The model incorporates a technique for
estimating the change in wild ruminant grazing,
water yield, dispersed recreation use, and sediment
yield. Wild ruminant grazing and dispersed recreation
are produced to the level where the cost of one more
unit of that output would have been greater than
its benefit value.*4 The results of the model for
the Southeast region will be shown in some detail.
Only highlights of applying the model to the other
regime will be given here.

Southeast.— Sample results from the model of
supplying targeted timber and range grazing amounts
in 1985 and 1995 in the Southeast are shown in
table 8.1. Some of the impacts illustrated by this
table are:

e In addition to meeting timber and range
targets in 1985, dispersed recreation can be
increased by 10 percent more than 1977
with the marginal benefits equalling mar-
ginal costs. However, in order to meet the
1995 targets for timber and range, dis-
persed recreation use will have to drop
below the 1977 use by 4 percent.

e The impact of meeting the required tar-
gets are either beneficial or negligible on
herbage and browse production, wild
ruminant grazing, water yield, and storm
runoff.

e@ Increased timber harvesting and grazing
by 1985 and 1995 will require moving to
lands which are more susceptible to ero-
sion and therefore result in substantially
increased sediment yields.

@ Meeting the timber and range targets plus
increasing dispersed recreation to the
point where marginal costs equal marginal
benefits requires intensification of man-
agement. While only 11 percent of the
National Forests were managed inten-
sively in 1977 (according to the definition
of “intensive” used for model specifi-
cation), 23 and 28 percent will have to be
managed intensively by 1985 and 1995,
respectively. Similarly, on State-owned
or privately owned lands, 35 percent will

3 The model restruction technique is discussed in Ashton, et. al.,
op. Cit.

4 For a discussion on benefit values see; Dyrland, Richard E.,
Working paper 1980 RPA value. Unpublished report on file at
Washington Office, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agricul-
ture, Washington, D.C., May 8, 1979.

require intensive management by 1995
compared to 22 percent in 1977.

e As management intensity increases and re-
sources are supplied from less productive
lands, the marginal costs of producing
timber and range grazing will increase by
substantial amounts.

South Central. —I\n the South Central region dis-
persed recreation initially displays a complementary
relationship to the increasing demands for timber and
range grazing, as recreation rises 49 percent by 1985.
However, as timber and range demands increase
beyond the 1985 level, dispersed recreation drops.

Herbage and browse steadily increase in response
to the rising range grazing demand. Wild ruminant
grazing rises continually throughout the projection
period, suggesting that this resource use is comple-
mentary with increasing demands for timber and
and range grazing. This relationship is the result
of increased timber harvest which, in this region,
apparently improves the opportunities for wildlife
habitat.

Water yield and storm runoff are again very insen-
sitive to the increases in timber and range grazing,
a result of the geology, topography, and soil types of
the region. However, sediment yield does rise sub-
stantially, as the acreage of intensive use increases
to meet higher demands.

As inall other regions, the marginal costs of meeting
timber and range grazing demands increase substan-
tially.

North Central.—The model results indicate some
important changes occur in the levels of resource
use and environmental effects as a result of meeting
the projected demands for timber and range grazing.
Herbage and browse and sediment yield increase to
a 1995 peak of 108 percent and 124 percent above
the 1977 value, respectively. Sediment yield is pri-
marily dependent on the total number of acres under
treatment and associated intensive land use.

Water yield is apparently insensitive to changes in
other outputs as it remains unchanged with time.
Storm runoff rises slightly to a peak of 5 percent
above the base year in 1995, due very likely to the
increase in intensive land use necessary to meet
range grazing demands.

The intensity of land use values remains virtually
unchanged on National Forest System and other
Federal lands. However, on State and private lands,
which comprise about 80 percent of the region, the
intensity of land use increases with demands.

The marginal cost of softwood timber remains
unchanged over time, suggesting that the increasing
demands are well within the productive capability

323

Table 8.1— Multiresource interactions in the Southeast resulting from meeting projected timber
and range grazing demands

Projected demands:'

Softwood timber
Hardwood timber
Range grazing

Resource use and environmental
effects:

Billion cubic feet
Billion cubic feet
Million animal unit months

2.42 3.06
1.01 1.35
18.10 21.50

Dispersed recreation use Percent change from 1977 -4.0
Herbage and browse Percent change from 1977 16.0
Wild ruminant grazing Percent change from 1977 2.0
Water yield Percent change from 1977 1.0
Sediment Percent change from 1977 116.0
Storm runoff Percent change from 1977 0.1
Intensity of land resource used:

National Forest lands:?

Extensive use? Percent of area 89 THE 72

Intensive use? Percent of area 11 23 28
Other Federal lands:

Extensive use® Percent of area 98 91 89

Intensive use® Percent of area 2 9 11
State and private lands:

Extensive use? Percent of area 78 70 65

Intensive use® Percent of area

Land resource use cost for
all owners

Marginal cost softwood timber
Marginal cost range grazing

‘Projected demands as shown in the review draft of this study.

2In this multiresource interaction analysis, the areas recommended for wilder-
ness or further planning by the RARE II process were considered wilderness.

$The land resource use is said to be intensive if one or more of the timber, range,
or wildlife activities of the resource management options are intensive. Timber
activities are defined as intensive if intermediate treatments between regeneration

of the land base. Range grazing’s marginal cost
increases in 1995 in response to the associated
increase in range demands.

Northeast.—The allocated demands for timber and
range grazing in the Northeast are relatively small,
and thus competition among the various resource
uses is minimal.

The only substantial change occurs in herbage
and browse, which rises above the 1977 value by
46 percent in 1995. This increasing trend for herbage
and browse is in line with the rising range grazing
demand levels and stable wild ruminant grazing
levels.

Because of the slight increases in demands for
timber and range grazing, the intensity of land use
remains almost unchanged from base year levels.
A slight increase in intensive use occurs on State and
private lands, indicating that most of the demand
increases will be met on these lands.

324

Millions of doilars

22
Dollars per cubic foot Rei ie 24
Dollars per animal unit month pst Seve

10.52

and harvesting are conducted. Range activities are defined as intensive if prac-
tices, mainly species conversion, are made to maximize livestock forage pro-
duction. Wildlife activities are defined as intensive if vegetative manipulation
practices are undertaken to improve wildlife habitat. If none of the three activities
are intensive, the use is considered extensive.

The marginal cost of timber remains unchanged
throughout the projection period. This indicates that
although timber demands increase, they remain well
below the maximum timber production capability
of the land base. However, the range grazing marginal
costs show a fast climb. These large increases in
marginal cost that result from small demand increases
indicate that the range grazing demand may be nearing
the maximum production capability of the Northeast.

Rocky Mountains-Great Plains.—The allocated
timber demands on the Rocky Mountain/Great
Plains regions rise less than range grazing demands.
Therefore, range grazing increases have the greater
impact on supply of dispersed recreation and other
environmental effects. In addition to meeting the
1985 and 1995 timber and range grazing demands,
the Rocky Mountain region is capable of increasing
dispersed recreation use by 18 percent and wild
ruminant grazing by 21 percent in 1995. There are

no major impacts on storm runoff or sediment yield.

Intensity of land use rises slightly on National
Forest and other Federal lands, but increases much
more significantly on Bureau of Land Management
lands, and State and private lands, which comprise
about two-thirds of the total land base in this region.
As a result of this increased management, total costs
increase. Likewise, the marginal costs for both timber
and range grazing rise substantially with time.

Pacific Northwest.—In the Pacific Northwest, while
the allocated softwood timber demands rise only
slightly with time, the model results indicate meeting
these demands induces some important changes in
other resource use, and environmental! effects occur.
To meet timber and range grazing targets, dispersed
recreation growth is limited to about 10 percent of
the 1977 use, and wild ruminant grazing will fall
below the 1977 level by the end of the projection
period. On the other hand, water yield and storm
runoff again show an insensitivity to changes in
projected demands.

The intensity of land resource use figures reflects
the increases in range grazing demands, as they rise
significantly on State and private and Bureau of
Land Management lands. Associated with these
increases in intensity of land use is a rise in total
land resource use cost. As expected, the marginal
cost for timber increases only slightly, in response
to the similar small rise in timber demands. The
range grazing marginal cost increases rapidly.

Pacific Southwest.—The allocated demand for soft-
wood timber and range grazing in the Pacific South-
west increases with time, but at a lower rate than
in most of the other regions. However, some signifi-
cant changes in resource use and environmental effects
accompanied the meeting of these projected demands.

Dispersed recreation can be increased by 46 percent
during the projection period. This trend indicates that
dispersed recreation use can be increased while
meeting projected demands for timber and range
grazing. Herbage and browse increase slightly with
time, a result of the management practices nec-
essary to meet range grazing demands. A slight
reduction in dispersed recreation signals possible
increased competition as projected demands rise.
Wild ruminant grazing rises by 17 percent in 1985,
but then drops. Range and wild ruminant grazing
production begin to compete at higher levels of
range grazing demand. The hydrological outputs,
water yield, sediment, and storm runoff display
little sensitivity to the projected demand changes
in this region, a result both of the low demand
increases and the characteristics of the local geo-
logy, topography, and soils.

Examination of the intensity of land resource use
data shows a very substantial rise in intensive use of
National Forest and especially State and private
lands, compared to little change in intensity on
Bureau of Land Management or other Federal lands.

Despite the large increases in intensive use, total
land resource use cost rises over the projection period.
This moderate rise is necessary to meet the increased
timber and range grazing demands. Likewise, the
marginal costs rise only slightly, except for the large
increase in range grazing marginal cost.

Conclusions

Three major conclusions can be drawn from the
foregoing analysis of resource interactions.

The first conclusion is that projecting renewable
resource supplies requires an understanding of the
complex interactions between the biological poten-
tial of the land to produce combinations of goods
and services, the impact of various management
strategies, and the motives of various types of land-
owners. At the present time, knowledge of these
interactions is limited and should be the focus of
increased attention from the forestry research com-
munity. The accuracy of any modeling efforts to
quantify these resource interactions will be limited
by the understanding of both the biology and eco-
nomics of multiresource production.

A second conclusion is that a model has been
developed which can be used to examine a large
number of land areas of different productive capacity
and to quantify the impacts of meeting increased
demands for timber and range grazing. This effort
not only lays the groundwork fora more sophisticated
way to assess the capability of the Nation’s forest
and range lands to produce goods and services, but
it also can be used to analyze in more detail the
benefits and costs of particular management strate-
gies as they are applied to particular regions of the
country.

The third conclusion is that the Nation’s forest and
range lands have the productive capacity to meet
the ever-increasing demands for nearly all renewable
resource products through the next five decades.
Though the inherent productive capacity is there,
several changes in land management will have to
occur. There will have to be more intensive manage-
ment, which will require larger investments than
are currently being made. There will have to be shifts
among regions in the proportionate share of certain
goods which they produce. There will have to be
shifts in supply among ownerships with increasing
share of goods and services being provided from
private ownerships.

325

Chapter 9. — Scientific Information and Data Needs

Four major areas for which improvements in scien-
tific information and data were needed to guide
forest and range land policies and programs were
identified in the 1975 Assessment of Renewable
Resources.! These are:

e inventories of forest, range, and inland
water resources.

© estimates of physical responses of forest,
range, and inland waters to changes in
management practices.

e@ surveys of the use of forest and range
products.

@ research on the techniques of collecting
data and information needed for manage-
ment purposes.

Progress Since 1975

Although the time since the 1975 Assessment has
been too short for results of changes in research
programs to be available, progress was made in at
least three of the major areas identified above.
Furthermore, the groundwork for future improve-
ment has been established. Much remains to be done,
however, to respond fully to the research needs
identified in the 1975 Assessment for these and
other areas.

Moreover, needs exist for research on associated
problems involved in the administration, manage-
ment, and use of forest and range lands. These
are described in detail in a recent study of national
research needs prepared by a Task Force of the
U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National
Association of State Universities and Land Grant
Colleges.?

Inventories of Forest and Range Resources

Research on developing, testing, and evaluating
new inventory techniques for obtaining needed infor-
mation on renewable natural resources has been
underway. One example is the recently completed
South. Carolina Multiresource Inventory Pilot Study
conducted by the Renewable Resources Evaluation
Unit of the Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.3
This pilot study expands the timber inventory for
South Carolina, which is conducted at regular inter-
vals by the Forest Service, to include other renew-

' Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, The Nation’s
renewable resources — an assessment, 1975. For. Resource Rep.
21, U.S. Gov. Print. Off., Washington, D.C., 243 p., 1977.

2U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Association
of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges. National program
of research for forests and associated rangelands. U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, D.C., 40 p., 1978.

3McClure, Joe P., N. D. Cost, and H. A. Knight. Multiresource
inventories, a new concept for Forest Survey. Forest Service.
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Research Paper SE. (In process).

able forest resources. The basic approach was to
expand the existing timber inventory into a multi-
resource inventory by making maximum use of well-
established inventory methods.

Additional data obtained at each sample location
included special information needed for evaluating
wildlife habitat, recreation use, range suitability, water
quality, erosion hazards related to forestry practices,
and the use-interactions associated with various forest
conditions in South Carolina. The vegetative makeup
of different forest conditions reflects the basic eco-
logical relationships vital to multiresource evalua-
tions. Consequently, a major goal of the pilot study
was to quantify and describe all the vegetation at
each sample location in relation to the observed uses
of the forest land. Many of the data elements already
being collected in the regular timber inventory also
proved useful in assessing nontimber resources.

Analysis of the multiresource inventory data col-
lection has not yet been completed. However, pre-
liminary analyses show that the South Carolina pilot
study met its planned objectives. It appears that,
for the first time in any State, managers and
policymakers have multiresource inventory data on
a common statewide basis.

Another example of a new method for inventory-
ing wildland resources is known as ECOSYM%. This
is a comprehensive system for land classification
and a framework for building a multiresource infor-
mation system. It provides a framework of eco-
system components that are hierarchically structured
and objectively defined. It includes systems for clas-
sifying bedrock geology, regolith topography, cli-
mate, soil, current vegetation, and potential vege-
tation. The ecosystem components are defined inde-
pendently of their relation to adjacent components.
Any component or combination of components can
be used to classify areas for management purposes.
Similarly, knowledge of the components and their
interrelationships on.any given area can be used,
perhaps in combination with the other available
information, to define appropriate rules for man-
agement of the land and vegetative resource. These
rules, in turn, can be applied to the information on
components, which are stored in computers, to pro-
vide land managers with processed information in
either mapped or tabular form.

ECOSYM has been tested sufficiently to warrant
considering it for adoption as a common concep-
tual approach to developing natural resource infor-

mation systems. The component classifications have

4 Henderson, J. A. and L. S. Davis. ECOSYM: a classification
and information system for wildland resource management. Jn
Integrated inventories of renewable natural resources: Proc. of
workshop. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky
Mountain For. and Range Exp. Sta., p. 384-389. 1978.

327

proved practical in field tests and have provided
a common basis for developing rules for predicting
resource characteristics with acceptable accuracy.
Although application of ECOSYM for management
planning at the National Forest, regional, and
national levels still needs to be tested, it is expected
to be a useful resource inventory approach.

A related effort has been underway to develop a
compatible land classification system for resource
management agencies. To date, no compatible clas-
sification system or data base has emerged, either
within or among natural resource agencies, from
which data could be obtained without manipulation
to a common denominator. The need for a com-
patible land classification system became even more
acute with the passage of the Renewable Resources
Planning Act. Renewable resource assessments must
account for all the forest and range lands of the
United States, its territories, and its possessions
and must rely on data developed by the Forest
Service and other agencies.

In response to this need, the Chief of the Forest
Service created a task group in 1976 to recommend
a land classification system to be used in these
assessments. This group has recommended a com-
ponent, rather than an integrated, system for uni-
form assessment inventories>. The four major compo-
nents are vegetation, soil, landform, and water. In
addition, climate is used as a criterion for separating
the vegetation and soil components.

The purpose of the proposed system is to make
possible the identification of land areas with similar
characteristics and that respond similarly to man-
agement practices as constrained by environmental
conditions. Adoption of this system, which has had
input from many different Federal and State agencies
and disciplines, promises to facilitate future assess-
ments, by improving resource inventories and pro-
viding a basis for extending research results to eval-
uate management alternatives.

Important progress has also been made recently
to help insure that data collected by the Federal
agencies concerned with forest and range lands and
their associated waters can be efficiently utilized in
future national assessments. An interagency agree-
ment between the Bureau of Land Management,
Fish and Wildlife Service, Soil Conservation Service,
Geological Survey, and Forest Service provides for
liaison and cooperation in survey, inventory ap-
praisal, assessment, and planning activities for renew-
able resources. It assures administrative action
to minimize duplication and overlapping efforts

5Driscoll, R. S., J. W. Russell and Marvin C. Meier. Recom-
mended national land classification system for renewable resource
assessment. Unpub. rep. on file at the Rocky Mountain For. and
Range Exp. Sta. 1978.

328

and to enhance and encourage overall data col-
lection, data storing, appraisal efficiency, and pro-
gram compatibility. A similar agreement has also
been developed between the Bureau of Indian
Affairs and the Forest Service.

In addition, a liaison committee has been formed
between the Forest Service and the Soil Conservation
Service to assure coordination in inventory, mon-
itoring, assessment, appraisal, and program activities.

In a related effort, a case study of forest and range
land management planning has been underway to
develop and demonstrate how the national assess-
ment and Forest Service program can be linked to
National Forest level plans.®

Evaluation of this case study indicates that the basic
purposes of the project were met. National Forest
planning within this framework will provide for
refining, improving, and updating data bases devel-
oped in regional plans. This will result in an improved
basis for developing future regional programs. How-
ever, techniques to aggregate data from the regional
to the national level have not been fully developed.
In addition, this project has illustrated the need to
be able to deal with area or local resource unit data
in order to be more sensitive to the various local-
ized social and economic situations.

Physical Responses to Change in Management

One of the basic needs in improving the manage-
ment of forest and range lands is information on
the physical response to management programs.
Information is particularly lacking to describe multi-
resource interactions, or the relationship among
resources on a common area as management pro-
grams change. These are critical data needs for
managers of forest and range lands who must know
with reasonable certainty what effects their manage-
ment decisions will have.

One recent effort to provide this kind of information
was aimed at improving planning at the National
Forest level and similar levels in other resource
managing agencies.’ It involved developing and
testing up-to-date techniques for predicting the poten-
tial differences among alternative management pro-
grams. These techniques are now being tested on
several National Forests in the West to determine
if they can aid resource managers in making decisions.

This approach provides an assessment of both
physical and social conditions through:

6Rocky Mountain Region, Forest Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture. Regional Planning Case Study. preliminary draft,
July 17, 1978.

7Brown, Thomas C., Forest and range land management; an
approach for local planning efforts. Unpublished report on file at
the Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Exp. Sta. 17 p. 1978.

(1) public involvment.
(2) resource inventory and valuation studies.
(3) data evaluation.

This approach is intended to satisfy information
needs at the local level and higher organizational
levels where comparisons of program alternatives
must be made.

Tools for quantifying some social effects are also
being tested. These include techniques for quantifying
estimates of quality, for assigning monetary values
to market and some nonmarket products, and for
estimating money flows, employment, and other local
impacts.

The two keys to dealing with physical and resource
use interactions are an understanding of ecology and
having techniques to simulate and predict physical
changes resulting from various management alterna-
tives. ECOSYM, which was discussed earlier, provides
an inventory technique for organizing resource infor-
mation so that it can be used to simulate physical
changes.

The procedures and tools being developed and
tested in this effort should improve local level
planning. This, in turn, should strengthen the linkage
between national assessments and local level planning
and decisionmaking.

Work is also underway in the Washington Office
of the Forest Service to develop and test a model
to estimate multiresource use interactions. It is
expected that this model will make it possible to
describe the complex relationships among forest and
range land resource uses over time and space. In
addition, it will be possible to assemble information
on these interactions under alternative management
strategies as a basis for future assessments.

Surveys of Product Use

In response to the needs for better information on
the use of forest and range land products that were
identified in the 1975 Assessment, the Forest Service
expanded its National Timber Requirements Program
and centralized this program at the Forest Products
Laboratory at Madison, Wis. Some progress has
been made in getting new information on wood used
in housing and nonresidential construction, highway
construction, farm structures, and mobile homes. An
update on wood used in manufacturing from the
previous 1965 report is also underway in collaboration
with the Washington Office and the Forestry Services
Laboratory at Princeton, W. Va.

Development of a model for estimating demand for
timber products is now well underway. This will
provide a means of rapidly preparing alternative
estimates of timber demand.

With respect to wildlife, nationwide computerized
data banks have been constructed for each timber
type and range type within each State. Included
are?

1. Complete lists of resident and common
migrant vertebrate and selected inverte-
brate species.

2. Identification of species listed as threat-
ened or endangered by the Federal or
State governments, those species that
are sensitive to standard land and water
management practices, and those species
of recreational and commercial impor-
tance.

3. The generalized habitat requirement of
each species expressed in terms of data
compiled in timber (size class) and range
(condition class) inventories, to the ex-
tent possible.

The data base also includes information provided
by the Fish and Wildlife agencies of each State
concerning the consumptive uses and harvest and
population levels of individual species, from the
mid-1950’s to the mid-1980’s.

As a result of this work, management-level infor-
mation has increased dramatically in terms of quantity
and quality of data. Perhaps the most significant
gain has been due to computerizing this informa-
tion so that it is more readily available to land
and water managers.

A nationwide outdoor recreation survey of private
owners of forest and range land has been com-
pleted. It describes the’ private sector resources,
owner motivation, and recreation supply potential.
This survey provides, for the first time, a measure
of the existing nationwide recreation resource supply
on forest and range lands of the private sector
by region, the availability of forest and range lands
for general public recreational use by region, and
assesses existing and desired recreation-supply rela-
tionships between the public and private sector. This
survey also complements the recently completed
inventory of recreation enterprises conducted by the
National Association of Conservation Districts.

Improving Techniques for Data Collection

In addition to the information needs, there is a
related need to develop techniques for collecting in-
formation on forest and range land resources.
Progress has been made in this area, although some
of the results must still be tested. The ECOSYM
approach is intended to provide a method for classify-
ing basic land resources which could be used as a
framework for data collection. The South Carolina

329

multiresource inventory pilot project also provides
a framework for data collection, in this case one
based on the regular timber inventory and classifi-
cations.

Two other projects have been directed more
specifically at improving data collection techniques
within an overall land and resource classification
system. One such project, the Susitna Area Inventory
in the Susitna Valley, Alaska, is a cooperative venture
with the Soil Conservation Service. It is designed as
an in-place (mapping) inventory to obtain accurate
estimates of total vegetative cover at a level of sam-
pling below that used in the normal forest inventories.

The second project for testing different sampling
designs and measurement procedures for getting
multipurpose resource data is a cooperative inventory
program in Grand County, Colo. which is testing an
improved systematic sampling design.

Data on soil series, density, foliar cover, current
production, plant height, and form and age class of
shrubs are obtained at each sample location. In a
followup effort, these data will be stratified into
various vegetation-soil units within which different
vegetation-soil-landform-water parameters will be
sampled.

Continuing Needs

Progress has been made in meeting some of the
scientific information and data needs identified in
the Assessment of Renewable Resources, 1975. How-
ever, the basic thrust of the information and data
needs section of the 1975 Assessment is still relevant
for planning purposes today. Some highlights are
listed below:

Inventories of Forest and Range Resources

The need continues to accelerate and intensify
the present surveys of renewable resources of forest
and range lands.. With respect to the surveys of
timber resources, the present time between successive
State inventories averages 12 years. This is far too
long to adequately monitor the changes taking place
in timber resources. In some States where industrial
development has been rapid, timber removals have
changed by as much as 40 percent in a 10-year
period. In other areas such as the Delta region
of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, forest land
has been cleared at a rate of more than 300,000
acres a year. Obviously, where such fast changes
are taking place, inventory cycles of more than 5
years are of limited usefulness in guiding resource
planning and management.

The survey should also be intensified to provide
more precise local resource data. Present sampling

330

standards are designed to achieve acceptable sampling
errors for large areas of forest land (1 million acres)
or for relatively large timber volumes (1 billion cubic
feet of timber). This limits the usefulness of the data
for local governments, planning agencies, and re-
source industries, who may need statistically reliable
information for relatively small geographic areas.
Intensifying the inventories to provide this informa-
tion would aid local land use planning and manage-
ment of forest lands, including those in small private
ownerships.

Basic surveys of rangeland resources are also
needed, including forage for domestic livestock and
other uses of rangelands. A foundation for such
inventories is being laid in the work described above
on multiresource inventories, but a systematic inven-
tory to national standards is needed.

Information available on the Nation’s outdoor
recreation resources has been collected for specific
studies or management needs and is of limited use
in guiding recreation management on forest and
range lands. A systematic, continuing inventory with
national standards is needed for recreation resources.
This survey should include an inventory of the forest
and range land available and suitable for outdoor
recreation.

Responsibilities for inventorying wildlife popula-
tions are spread among various States and Federal
agencies. There is a need to standardize data for
national assessments, to improve the data base for
nongame species of wildlife, and to provide better
information relating wildlife populations to the forest,
range, and water base.

The classification approaches described may satisfy
the need for a land classification system that is a
prerequisite to useful data collection for planning
purposes. However, additional evaluation of this and
other possible approaches is necessary. In addition,
very little work has been done on aquatic systems,
and there are no operational classification systems for
lakes, streams, and marshes. A good classification
system is the foundation for any useful inventory
and is needed for both land and water resources.

Physical Responses of Resources
to Management Practices

Information on physical responses of forest and
range land and the associated waters to management
practices is still inadequate and especially so for multi-
resource interactions. The effort now going into
describing and measuring the responses of these
resources to management practices must be greatly
expanded to provide the information necessary for
efficient administration and management of forest
and range lands.

Surveys of Use of Forest
and Range Land Products

As indicated above, there has been some progress
in obtaining data on timber products use in various
markets. However, this is limited in relation to the
need. Thus, there is still some urgency in expanding
and accelerating the ongoing survey work to obtain
current data on timber products consumption in all
important end uses. In view of the rapid changes
in population, economic activity, technologies, and
prices of substitute products and energy, it is also
necessary to repeat the surveys at intervals short
enough to insure that all significant changes in use can
be identified, analyzed, and evaluated.

Progress has been limited in collecting additional
data on outdoor recreation, including the various
activities based on the wildlife and fish resources.
There is a need to collect such information on a
continuing basis, utilizing a standardized reporting
system that permits the aggregation of the data to any
desirable geographic level.

With regard to wildlife, the first need is to ensure
that what is known about wildlife and fish is compiled,
validated, and made available in a usable form
to land and water managers. This summary includes
information on the consequences to wildlife and fish
species of alternative actions, the possible tradeoffs
between fauna and other resources, and the economic
and social implications to people of the alternatives.

Further work that leads to a fuller understanding of
the determinants of population levels is also necessary.
Because no direct quantitative inventory of wildlife
or fish habitats exists for any substantial part of the
Nation, it is important to determine how data that
have already been collected in timber, range, and
water inventories can be used as surrogate measures
of habitats. For the more distant future, expanding
such inventories to directly measure critical elements
of habitats is necessary.

Techniques of Collecting Data
for Management Purposes

The major challenge in developing techniques to
improve the collection of data for management pur-
poses continues to be, as it was in 1975, in developing
statistically reliable sampling techniques for estimat-
ing nontimber resources and in linking these estimates
to comprehensive land classification systems. Sam-
pling procedures for multiresource inventories done
source surveys, but not in surveying other resources.
In addition, little is known about the kinds of sam-
pling procedures for multiresources inventories done
simultaneously across resources sytems, either for
local or for national use.

Progress has been limited since 1975 in improving
techniques for inventorying nontimber resources. An
increased effort in this area is still needed. A timber
inventory technique that maintains continuity and
reliability of inventories over time exploits the rela-
tionship between successive surveys through a tech-
nique termed “sampling with partial replacement.”
Additional research is needed to develop this or
alternative techniques for the other resource systems,
and to determine the time interval and the sample
replacement policy that would be best for simul-
taneous sampling of all resources.

Other Data Needs

Limited progress has been made in several other
areas of need identified in the 1975 Assessment. Better
information is still needed on the cost of various
management practices, both for such commodity
resources as timber and forage and for such non-
commodity resources as wildlife habitat. At the same
time, better information is needed on the prices of
forest and range land outputs that do have established
markets and on values of other resources.

About a dozen States now publish periodic reports
(quarterly, semiannual or annual) on prices of stump-
age (standing timber) and important primary prod-
ucts such as sawlogs, veneer logs, pulpwood, and
posts. Data on the average stumpage prices of
standing timber sold from the National Forests by
major species and region are published on a quarterly
basis by the Forest Service. However, because of
limited geographic coverage and deficiencies in fre-
quency and accuracy, the published data are generally
not adequate for timber owners and forest land
managers.

The value of timber and forage resources can at
least be estimated on the basis of some market
evidence. But relating such values to the values of
other resources of forest and range lands has always
been difficult. Research is still needed to develop
better ways to measure the output of the recreation
and wilderness resource systems and to provide
reasonable estimates of the value of these resources.

Methods for projecting supplies of forest, range,
and inland water products are primitive. For some
products—such as outdoor recreation, hunting, and
fishing—there is little information on current supplies
and no operational techniques for assessing either
shortrun or longrun supply trends. More work is
required on methods and techniques for projecting
supplies and the response to alternate levels of
management, particularly for such major products as
timber.

331

Defining economic, social, and environmental goals
and using them to guide public programs is difficult
and far from an exact science. Decisions on the
management and use of renewable resources, how-
ever, unavoidably imply that such goals have been
determined. The development of ways to translate
general societal goals into specific resource manage-
ment objectives is an important area for long term
research. One technique now being widely used is
public participation in management decisions, but the
most effective ways of getting and incorporating
public participation have yet to be identified and
documented.

332

As work progressed on the Assessment, another
related need has become more and more evident. That
need is to study and quantify the social, economic,
and environmental implications of the general
demand-supply outlook for most renewable resources
of forest and range lands, i.e., an outlook in which
the demands for most products are rising more rapidly
than supplies. This kind of information is a basic
need—it is the societal basis for changing policies
and programs. The results are likely to have profound
impacts on the future management and use of forest
and range lands.

Glossary

Aggregated subarea — Subdelineations of water re-
source regions —also based upon hydrologic
boundaries.

Animal unit months (AUM’S) — Amount of grazing
required by a 1,000 pound cow for | month.

Biological potential— The amount of living matter
potentially producible by the unit being discussed
without fertilization or irrigation.

Bureau of Land Management land — Federal lands
administered by the Bureau of Land Management,
U.S. Department of the Interior.

Commercial forest land— See commercial timber-
land.

Commercial species — Tree species suitable for indus-
trial wood products.

Commercial timberland — Forest land which is pro-
ducing or is capable of producing crops of indus-
trial wood and not withdrawn from timber utiliza-
tion by statute or administrative regulation. (Note:
Areas qualifying as commercial timberland have
the capability of producing in excess of 20 cubic
feet per acre per year of industrial wood in natural
stands. Currently, inaccessible and inoperable
areas are included.)

Consumptive water use— Portion of water with-
drawn that is consumed through evaporation,
transpiration, or discharge into irretrievable
locations.

Cord — A pile of stacked wood containing 128 cubic
feet within its outside surfaces. The standard
dimensions are 4 by 4 by 8 feet.

Cropland — Land under cultivation within the past
24 months, including cropland harvested, crop
failures, cultivated summer fallow, idle cropland
used only for pasture, orchards and land in soil
improving crops, but excluding land cultivated in
developing improved pasture.

Cull trees — Live trees of sawtimber and poletimber
size that are unmerchantable for saw logs now or
prospectively because of roughness, rot, or species
(also see rotten cull trees and rough trees).

Deferred forest land— National Forest lands that
meet productivity standards for commercial forest,
but are under study for possible inclusion in the
Wilderness System.

Depletion — The utilization of a natural renewable
resource at a rate greater than the rate of
replenishment.

Developed (or concentrated) recreation — Outdoor
recreation requiring significant capital investment
in facilities to handle a concentration of visitors on
a relatively small area.

Diameter classes — A classification of trees based on
diameter of outside bark measured at breast height

(414 feet above the ground). D.b.h. is the common
abbreviation for “diameter at breast height.”
When using 2-inch diameter classes the 6-inch
class, for example, includes trees 5.0 through 6.9
inches d.b.h. inclusive.

Dispersed recreation — Outdoor recreation in which
visitors are diffused over relatively large areas.
Where facilities or developments are provided,
they are more for access and protection of the
environment than for the comfort or convenience
of the people.

Domestic water use — Water used for drinking, sani-
tation, street flushing, fire protection, and lawn
and garden irrigation.

Ecosystem — A complete, interacting system of or-
ganisms considered together with their environ-
ment, e.g., a marsh, a watershed, a lake, etc.

Endangered species — Any species of animal or plant
which is in danger of extinction throughout all ora |
significant portion of its range.

Establishment — An economic unit, generally at a
single physical location, where business is con-
ducted or where services or industrial operations
are performed.

Farmer and other private — All private ownerships
except industry.

Farmer-owned lands— Lands owned by a person
who operates a farm, either doing the work himself
or directly supervising the work.

Forest industry lands — Lands owned by companies
or individuals operating wood-using plants.

Forest land — Land at least 10 percent stocked by
forest trees of any size, including land that for-
merly had such tree cover and that will be natu-
rally or artificially regenerated. (Also see Com-
mercial forest land, Productive-reserved forest
land, and Other forest land.) Forest land includes
transition zones, such as areas between heavily
forested and non-forested lands that are at least 10
percent stocked with forest trees, and forest areas
adjacent to urban and built-up lands. Also in-
cluded are pinyon-juniper and chaparral areas in
the West, and afforested areas. The minimum area
for classification of forest land is | acre. Roadside,
streamside, and shelterbelt strips of timber must
have a crown width at least 120 feet wide to qualify
as forest land. Unimproved roads and trails,
streams, and clearings in forest areas are classified
as forest if less than 120 feet in width.

Forest site productivity class— A classification of
forest land in terms of potential cubic-foot volume
growth per acre at culmination of mean annual
increment in fully stocked natural stands.

333

Forest types— A classification of forest land based
upon the tree species presently forming a plurality
of stocking. For poletimber size trees and larger,
stocking is determined from basal area occurrence
and for trees less than 5.0 inches d.b.h. from
number of trees.

Major eastern forest type groups:

White-red-jack pine— Forests in which eastern
white pine, red pine, or jack pine, singly or in
combination, comprise a plurality of the stock-
ing. (Common associates include hemlock,
aspen, birch, and maple.)

Spruce-fir — Forests in which spruce or true firs,
singly or in combination, comprise a plurality
of the stocking. (Common associates include
white-cedar, tamarack, maple, birch, and
hemlock.)

Longleaf-slash pine — Forests in which longleaf or
slash pine, singly or in combination, comprise a
plurality of the stocking. (Common associates
include other southern pines, oak, and gum.)

Loblolly-shortleaf pine — Forests in which loblolly
pine, shortleaf pine, or southern yellow pines
except longleaf or slash pine, singly or in com-
bination, comprise a plurality of the stocking.
(Common associates include oak, hickory, and
gum.)

Oak-pine — Forests in which hardwoods (usually
upland oaks) comprise a plurality of the stock-
ing but in which southern pines comprise 25-50
percent of the stocking. (Common associates
include hickory and yellow-poplar.)

Oak-hickory — Forests in which upland oaks, or
hickory, singly or in combination, comprise a
plurality of the stocking except where pines
comprise 25-50 percent, in which case the stand
would be classified as oak-pine. (Common
associates include yellow-poplar, elm, maple,
and black walnut.)

Oak-gum-cypress — Bottomland forests in which
tupelo, blackgum, sweetgum, oaks, or southern
cypress, singly or in combination, comprise a
plurality of the stocking except where pines
comprise 25-50 percent, in which case the stand
would be classified as oak-pine. (Common asso-
ciates include cottonwood, willow, ash, elm,
hackberry, and maple.)

Elm-ash-cottonwood — Forests in which elm, ash,
or cottonwood, singly or in combination, com-
prise a plurality of the stocking. (Common
associates include willow, sycamore, beech, and
maple.)

Aspen-birch — Forests in which aspen, balsam
poplar, paper birch, or gray birch, singly or in

334

combination, comprise a plurality of the stock-
ing. (Common associates include maple and
balsam fir.)

Major western forest type groups:

Douglas-fir — Forests in which Douglas-fir com-
prise a plurality of the stocking. (Common
associates include western hemlock, western
redcedar, the true firs, redwood, ponderosa
pine, and larch.)

Hemlock-Sitka spruce — Forests in which western
hemlock and/or Sitka spruce comprise a plural-
ity of the stocking. (Common associates include
Douglas-fir, silver fir, and western redcedar.)

Redwood — Forests in which redwood comprises
a plurality of the stocking. (Common associates
include Douglas-fir, grand fir, and tanoak.)

Ponderosa pine— Forests in which ponderosa
pine comprises a plurality of the stocking.
(Common associates include Jeffery pine, sugar
pine, limber pine, Apache pine, Chihuahua
pine, Douglas-fir, incense-cedar, and white fir.)

Western white pine— Forests in which western
pine comprises a plurality of the stocking.
(Common associates include western redcedar,
larch, white fir, Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine,
and Engelmann spruce.)

Lodgepole pine — Forests in which lodgepole pine
comprises a plurality of the stocking. (Common
associates are alpine fir, western white pine,
Engelmann spruce, aspen, and larch.)

Larch — Forests in which western larch comprises
a plurality of the stocking. (Common associates
are Douglas-fir, grand fir, western redcedar,
and western white pine.)

Fir-spruce — Forests in which true firs (Abies
spp.), Engelmann spruce, or Colorado blue
spruce, singly or in combination, comprise a
plurality of the stocking. (Common associates
are mountain hemlock and lodgepole pine.)

Hardwoods — Forests in which aspen, red alder or
other western hardwoods, singly or in combina-
tion, comprise a plurality of the stocking.

Chaparral — Forests of heavily branched dwarfed
trees or shrubs, usually evergreen, the crown
canopy of which at maturity covers more than
50 percent of the ground and whose primary
value is watershed protection. The more com-
mon chaparral constituents are species of Quer-
cus, Cercocarpus, Garrya, Ceanothus, Arctos-
taphylos, and Adenostoma. (Types dominated
by such shrubs as Artemisia, Chrysothamnus,
Purshia, Gutierrezia, or semi-desert species are
not commonly considered chaparral.)

Pinyon-juniper — Forests in which pinyon pine
and/or juniper comprise a plurality of the
stocking.

Growing stock trees— Live sawtimber trees, pole-
timber trees, saplings, and seedlings meeting speci-
fied standards of quality or vigor; excludes cull
trees.

Growing stock volume — Net volume in cubic feet of
live sawtimber and poletimber trees from stump to
a minimum 4-inch top (of central stem) outside
bark or to the point where the central stem breaks
into limbs.

Growth — See definition for “net annual growth.”

Hardwoods — Dicotyledonous trees, usually broad-
leaved and deciduous.

Indian lands — Tribal lands held in fee by the Federal
Government but administered for Indian tribal
groups and Indian trust allotments.

Industrial wood — All commercial roundwood prod-
ucts except fuelwood.

Inland waters — Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds over 2
acres in size and all waterways.

Land area — The area of dry land and land temporar-
ily or partially covered by water such as marshes,
swamps, and river flood plains (omitting tidal flats
below mean high tide); streams, sloughs, estuaries,
and canals less than 1/8 of a statute mile in width;
and lakes, reservoirs, and ponds less than 40 acres
in area.

Logging residues—The unused portions of pole-
timber and sawtimber trees cut or killed by logging.

Mortality — The volume of sound wood in live trees
that have died from natural causes during a speci-
fied period.

National Forest System land — Federal lands which
have been designated by Executive Order or stat-
ute as National Forests or purchase units, and
other lands under the administration of the For-
est Service including experimental areas and
Bankhead-Jones Title III lands.

Net annual growth — The net increase in the volume
of trees during a specified year. Components of net
annual growth include the increment in net volume
of trees at the beginning of the specific year surviv-
ing to its end, plus the net volume of trees reaching
the minimum size class during the year, minus the
volume of trees that died during the year, and
minus the net volume of trees that became rough
or rotten trees during the year.

Net volume in board feet— The gross board-foot
volume of trees less deductions for rot or other
defect affecting use for lumber.

Net volume in cubic feet — Gross volume in cubic feet
less deductions for rot, roughness, and poor form.

Volume is computed for the central stem from a
1-foot stump to a minimum 4.0-inch top diameter
outside bark, or to the point where the central
stem breaks into limbs.

Noncommercial species— Tree species of typical
small size, poor form, or inferior quality which
normally do not develop into trees suitable for
industrial wood products.

Nonforest land— Land that has never supported
forests and lands formerly forested where use for
timber management is precluded by development
for other uses. (Note: Includes areas used for
crops, improved pasture, residential areas, city
parks, improved roads of any width and adjoining
clearings, powerline clearings of any width, and 1-
to 40-acre areas of water classified by the Bureau
of the Census as nonforest land. If intermingled in
forest areas, unimproved roads and nonforest
strips must be more than 120 feet wide, and clear-
ings, etc., more than | acre in size, to qualify as
nonforest land.)

Nonpoint pollution sources — Those sources of pol-
lution that are diffuse in both origin and in time
and points of discharge, and depend heavily on
weather conditions such as rainstorms or snow-
melt. Pollutants can originate on natural source
areas as well as areas affected by man’s activities.

Off-road vehicles (ORV’s) — Vehicles such as motor-
cycles, all-terrain vehicles, fourwheel drives, and
snowmobiles.

Other Federal land — Federal land other than lands
administered by the Forest Service or the Bureau
of Land Management.

Other forest Land— Forest land incapable of pro-
ducing 20 cubic feet per acre of industrial wood
under natural conditions because of adverse site
conditions such as sterile soils, dry climate, poor
drainage, high elevation, steepness, or rockiness.

Other land — All land area other than forest and
range land.

Other private land— Privately owned land other
than forest industry or farmer-owned.

Other public land — Publicly owned land other than
National Forest System lands.

Other removals — The net volume of growing-stock
trees removed from the inventory by cultural
operations such as timber-stand improvement, by
land clearing, and by changes in land use such as a
shift to wilderness.

Ownership— The property owned by one owner,
including all parcels of land in the United States.

Pasture — Land which is currently improved for
grazing by cultivation, seeding, fertilization, or
irrigation.

335

Phreatophyte— A deep-rooted plant which obtains
its water from the water table or the layer of soil
just above it.

Plant residues — Wood materials from primary manu-
facturing plants that are not used for any product.
Typically includes slabs, edgings, trimmings, mis-
cuts, sawdust, shavings, veneer cores and clip-
pings, and pulp screenings.

Point pollution source — Any discernible, confined,
and discrete conveyance from which pollutants are
or may be discharged, including but not limited to
any pipe, ditch, channel, tunnel, conduit, well, dis-
crete fissure, container, rolling stock, concentrated
animal feeding operation, or vessel or other float-
ing craft.

Poletimber stands— Stands at least 10 percent
stocked with growing stock trees, of which half or
more of the stocking is sawtimber and/or pole-
timber trees with poletimber stocking exceeding
that of sawtimber. (See definition of Stocking.)

Poletimber trees — Live trees of commercial species
at least 5.0 inches in diameter at breast height but
smaller than sawtimber size, and of good form and
vigor.

Potential growth — The average net annual growth
per acre attainable in fully stocked natural stands
at culmination of mean annual growth of domi-
nate or codominate trees.

Primary manufacturing plants — Plants using round
wood products such as saw logs, pulpwood bolts,
veneer, logs, etc.

Productive-reserved forest land — Productive public
forest land withdrawn from timber utilization
through statute or administrative regulations.

Productivity class — A classification of forest land in
terms of potential growth in cubic feet of fully
stocked natural stands.

Range — All land producing native forage for animal
consumption, and lands that are revegetated natu-
rally or artificially to provide a forage cover that is
managed like native vegetation.

Rangeland — Land on which the potential natural
vegetation is predominantly grasses, grasslike
plants, forbs, or shrubs, including land revegetated
naturally or artificially that is managed like native
vegetation. Rangeland includes natural grasslands,
savannas, shrublands, most deserts, tundra, alpine
communities, coastal marshes, and wet meadows
that are less than 10 percent stocked with forest
trees of any size.

Major rangeland type groups:

Sagebrush — Rangeland characterized by shrubs,
principally of the genus Artemisia, which are
usually | to 7 feet high, although other shrubs

336

may be part of the vegetation. Grasses of the
genera Agropyron, Festuca, Stipa, Poa, and
Bromus, as well as broad-leaved herbs, may be
in the understory.

Desert shrub — Rangeland characterized by dry-
land (xeric) shrubs varying in height from 4
inches to many feet. Principal shrubs are black-
bush, saltbush, greasewood, creosote bush, bur
sage, palo verde, and cactus. Stands are gener-
ally open, with a large amount of bare soil and
desert pavement exposed. Understory vegeta-
tion is generally sparse.

Shinnery — Midgrass prairie with open to dense
stands or broad-leaved deciduous shrubs and
occasional needle-leaved low trees and shrubs.
The major shrubs are Harvard and shin oak,
juniper, and mesquite. Common associates
include little bluestem, side-oats grama, sand
bluestem, sand sagebrush, and yucca.

Texas savanna — A high-shrub savanna character-
ized by a dense to very open mixture of broad-
leaved, deciduous and evergreen low trees and
shrubs and needle-leaved low evergreen trees
and shrubs. The grass varies from short to
medium tall, and the herbaceous vegetation var-
ies from dense to open. Common plants include
mesquite, acacia, oaks, juniper, ceniza, cactus,
bluestems, three-awns, buffalo grass, gramas,
and tobosa.

Southwestern shrubsteppe— Rangeland charac-
terized by vegetation types ranging from short
grass with scattered shrubs to shrubs with scat-
tered areas of short grasses. Characteristic vege-
tation includes yucca, mesquite, creosotebush,
tarbush, black grama, three-awns, tobosa, side-
oats grama, and curly mesquite.

Mountain grasslands— Rangeland characterized
by bunchgrass of the fescue and wheatgrass,
oatgrass, bluegrass, and needlegrass groups.
Forbs may be abundant.

Mountain meadows— Rangeland characterized
by mesic grasses such as hairgrass, red top, and
bent grasses; sedges; rushes; and in some cases,
phreatophytic shrubs. Under the best condi-
tions, 70 percent of the ground is covered by
vegetation, more than three-fourths of which
may be perennial grasses. Sedges may consti-
tute as much as 15 percent of the cover. Peren-
nial forbs with showy flowers make up only
about 10 percent of the cover.

Plains grasslands— Rangeland characterized by
short, warm season grasses, with a minor
interspersion of forbs and shrubs. Dominant
vegetation includes blue grama and buffalo

grass, or western wheatgrass and needlegrass.
Occasional shrubs include juniper, silver sage-
brush, silver buffaloberry, skunkbush sumac,
rabbitbrush, and mesquite.

Prairie— Rangeland characterized by the tall
grasses, bluestems constituting about 70 percent
of the vegetation. Large numbers of flowering
forbs are present but are usually overshadowed
by the grasses. Woody vegetation is rare.

Desert grasslands — Rangeland with grasses pre-
dominant on plateaus at intermediate eleva-
tions, and shrubs predominate at higher and
lower elevations. Important grasses are galleta,
black grama, tobasa, and three-awn.

Wet grasslands — Rangeland characterized by
vegetation forming a medium-tall to very tall,
usually dense grassland, consisting of cord-
grasses, wiregrass, or sawgrass. Includes
marshes dominated by tule, bulrush, cattail, or
soft flag. There may be scattered palms, shrubs,
and low to medium-tall broadleaved evergreen
trees and shrubs.

Annual grasslands — Rangeland characterized by
annual grasses, such as wild oats, brome, wild
barley, and fescue. Forbs are numerous and
filaree is the most important.

Alpine — Rangelands dominated by grasses, wood-
rush, and sedges of rather low stature, but with
a large number of associated forbs. Common
grasses are bentgrass, hairgrass, mountain tim-
othy, bluegrasses, and spike tristetum. Dwarf
willow occurs, in some places, on the moist soils
of protected slopes and valleys.

Recreation visitor day — Twelve visitor hours, which
may be aggregated continuously, intermittently, or
simultaneously by one or more persons.

Removals — The net volume of growing stock or saw-
timber trees removed from the inventory by har-
vesting; cultural operations, such as timber stand
improvement; land clearing; or changes in land
use.

Residues

Coarse residues — Plant residues suitable for chip-
ping, such as slabs, edgings, and ends.

Fine residues— Plant residues not suitable for
chipping such as sawdust, shavings, and veneer
clippings.

Plant residues— Wood materials from primary
manufacturing plants that are not used for any
product.

Logging residues — The unused portions of saw-
timber and poletimber trees cut or killed by
logging.

Urban residues— Wood materials from urban
areas, such as newspapers, lumber, and ply-
wood from building demolition, and used
packaging and shipping wood materials.

Rotten cull trees — Live trees of commercial species
that do not contain a saw log now or prospec-
tively, primarily because of rot (e.g., when rot
accounts for more than S50 percent of the total cull
volume.)

Rough trees —(a) Live trees of commercial species
that do not contain at least one 12-foot saw log, or
two noncontiguous saw logs, each 8 feet or longer,
now or prospectively, primarly because of rough-
ness, poor form, splits, and cracks, and with less
than one-third of the gross tree volume in sound
material; and (b) all live trees of noncommercial
species.

Roundwood equivalent— The volume of logs or
other round products required to produce the
lumber, plywood, woodpulp, paper, or other sim-
ilar products.

Roundwood logs — Logs, bolts, or other round sec-
tions cut from trees.

Salvable dead trees — Standing or down dead trees
that are considered currently or potentially mer-
chantable by regional standards.

Sampling error — An expression of the degree of con-
fidence that can be placed on an estimated total or
average obtained by statistical sampling methods.
Sampling errors do not include technique errors
that could occur in photo classification of areas,
measurement of volume, or compilation of data.

Saplings — Live trees of commercial species 1.0 inch
to 5.0 inches in diameter at breast height and of
good form and vigor.

Saw log—A log meeting minimum standards of
diameter, length, and defect, including logs at least
8 feet long, sound and straight, and with a min-
imum diameter inside bark for softwoods of 6
inches (8 inches for hardwoods) or other combina-
tions of size and defect specified by regional
standards.

Saw log portion — That part of the bole of sawtimber
trees between the stump and the saw log top.

Saw log top— The point on the bole of sawtimber
trees above which a saw log cannot be produced.
The minimum saw log top is 7.0 inches d.o.b. for
softwoods, and 9.0 inches d.o.b. for hardwoods.

Sawtimber stands — Stands at least 10 percent occu-
pied with growing-stock trees, with half or more of
total stocking in sawtimber or poletimber trees,
and with sawtimber stocking at least equal to pole-
timber stocking.

337

Sawtimber trees — Live trees of commercial species
containing at least one 12-foot saw log or two non-
contiguous 8-foot logs, and meeting regional speci-
fications for freedom from defect. Softwood trees
must be at least 9 inches in diameter and hard-
wood trees 11 inches in diameter at breast height.

Sawtimber volume — Net volume of the saw log por-
tion of live sawtimber trees in board feet.

Scenic rivers— Rivers or sections of rivers free of
impoundments, with shorelines or watersheds still
largely primitive and shorelines largely undevel-
oped, but accessible in places by roads.

Seedlings — Established live trees of commercial spe-
cies less than 1.0 inch in diameter at breast height
and of good form and vigor.

Seedling and sapling stands — Stands at least 10 per-
cent occupied with growing-stock trees of which
more than half of the stocking is saplings and/or
seedlings.

Softwoods— Coniferous trees, usually evergreen,
having needles or scalelike leaves.

Sound cull trees— (Rough trees) Live trees that do
not contain a saw log now or prospectively, pri-
marily because of roughness, poor form, or non-
commercial species.

Special interest areas — Areas described in the Envi-
ronmental Policy Act of 1970 which include (1)
cultural areas— historic or prehistoric sites and
places of obvious future historical value, and (2)
natural areas— outstanding examples of the Na-
tion’s geological and ecological features.

Stand improvement — Measures such as thinning,
pruning, release cutting, girdling, weeding, or poi-
soning of unwanted trees aimed at improving
growing conditions for the remaining trees.

Stand-size classes— A classification of forest land
based on the predominant size of timber present,
that is, sawtimber, poletimber, or seedlings and
saplings.

State, county, and municipal land — Land owned by
States, counties, and local public agencies, or
lands leased by these governmental units for more
than SO years.

Stocking — The degree of occupancy of land by trees,
measured by basal area and/or number of trees by
size and spacing, compared to a stocking standard,
i.e., the basal area and/ or number of trees required
to fully utilize the growth potential of the land.

Threatened species — Any species of animal or plant
which is likely to become an endangered species
within the foreseeable future throughout all or a
portion of its range.

Upper-stem portion — That part of the main stem or
fork of sawtimber trees above the saw log top toa
minimum top diameter of 4.0 inches outside bark
or to the point where the main stem or fork breaks
into limbs.

Urban and other areas — Areas within the legal boun-
daries of cities and towns; suburban areas devel-
oped for residential, industrial, or recreational
purposes; school yards; cemeteries; roads; rail-
roads; airports; beaches; powerlines and other
rights-of-way; or other nonforest land not in-
cluded in any other specified land use class.

Water resource region— The 21 major hydrologic
regions into which the United States is delineated.

Wild rivers — Those rivers or sections of rivers free of
impoundments and generally inaccessible except
by trail, with watersheds or shorelines essentially
primitive (and waters unpolluted).

Wilderness — An area of undeveloped Federal land
retaining its primeval character and influence,
without permanent improvements or human habi-
tation, which is prctected and managed so as to
preserve its natural conditions and which (1) gen-
erally appears to have been affected primarily by
the forces of nature, with the imprint of man’s
work substantially unnoticeable; (2) has outstand-
ing opportunities for solitude or a primitive and
unconfined type of recreation; (3) has at least 5,000
acres of land or is of sufficient size as to make
practicable its preservation and use in an unim-
paired condition; and (4) may also contain ecologi-
cal, geological, or other features of scientific,
educational, scenic, or historical value (from Wil-
derness Act 1964).

Withdrawal use — Water that is taken from a source,
used, and then returned to a source for reuse.

338

Tables

Basic Assumptions

1.1 — Population, gross national
product and disposal of personal
income in the United States,
selected years 1929-78, with

projections to 2030..............

Forest and Range Land
2.1 — Land and water areas of the
United States, by class of land,
water, and section, region, and

State re ree Fee ee ae ae naliete

2.2 — Land and water areas of the
United States, by class of land
and water, 1970, 1977, with

projectionsito2030)5./2\yueete cin...

2.3 — Forest and range land areas in
the United States, by ownership

and section, region, and State....

2.4 — Forest land areas in the United
States, by timber productivity
class and section, region, and

ASSETS SNe Ere AS one i Le eRe ee

2.5 — Forest land areas in the United
States, by timber productivity

class and ‘ecosystem.......-......-

2.6 — Average annual herbage and
browse production and area by
productivity class of range
ecosystem in the contiguous

States vee reine nile yc

2.7 — Forest land area in the eastern
United States, by ecosystem and

region, and, State, 1977 wena... . :
2.8 — Rangeland area in the contiguous

States by ecosystem and section,

region, and State, 1976..........

2.9 — Forest land area in the western
United States, by ecosystem and
section, region, and State,

OA O Goo a AAG Sis Aaa

2.10 — Value of mineral production in
the United States by section,
region, and State, 1950, 1960,

LOFOKaNG OMS. hvahees that. bytes. 6

2.11 — Illustrative primary mineral
demand-production comparisons
in the United States by class of

mineral, 1974, with projections to
I9SSuand 2000 rs srk ncheee sets = «

2.12 — Area utilized for mining and area
reclaimed in the United States by

class of mineral, 1930-1971.......

Page

Page
2.13 — Area utilized for mining and area
reclaimed in the United States by
class of mineral, section, region,
and State, 1930-1971 ............... 57

Outdoor Recreation and Wilderness

S)5)|

32

3.3

3.4

3:5

3.6

3),

3.8

3:9

3.10 —

3.11 —

Percent of households

participating in outdoor

recreation in the United States
bytyperotvactivity Shee ses 5 esc. 65
Indexes of demand for outdoor
recreation in the contiguous

States by activity group and type

of activity, 1977, with projections

TO ZOZO ee crv argete retemier eee ccoee ee aiar arog 69
Indexes of demand for outdoor
recreation in the contiguous

States by activity group and

region, in 1977, with projections

LO ZOSO Ur rak Bee ea ate, Mane ea soe a6 3 71
Percent of private forest and

range land in the United States

available for public recreation

use by availability status,

ownership, and region, 1977......... 74
Recreation visitor days of use of

Federal recreation areas in the

United States by managing
agency and fee status, 1977
Number of recreation visitor
days of outdoor recreation
activities on National Forests in
the United States by types of
activity and area, 1978
Trail mileage in the United

States and territories, by

ownership, and section, region,

State’and! territory, 1978) nae... 82
Number of campgrounds in the

United States by section and

region and ownership, 1973 and

CA AL th RA ORLA isty Ran, AGE eee aat ae 86
Ownership of recreational boats

in the contiguous United States,

1976, and percent increase from

1973, by section and region ......... 88
Total number of ski lifts and lift

capacity operating in the United

States by land ownership,

section, region, and State, 1978...... 92
Percent of population not

participating in outdoor

recreation in the United States

by reasons and. region....>.../..0...... 95

339

3.12 — Conditions under which
landowners would open land
now Closed to recreation use in
the United States, by condition

and type of ownership, 1978 .....

3.13 — Area of the National Wilderness
Preservation System (NWPS)
and endorsed administration
additions, in the contiguous
United States by ecosystem and
managing agency, July I,

RODD: ice: veacaicis sie wea tnetiobine Gave ies ar

Wildlife and Fish

4.1 — Numbers of resident and
common migrant vertebrate
species and subspecies of special
concern found in forest and
range ecosystems in the United
States, by section and category

OL SPECIOS 6 65% aide. ait oaled- wee seas

4.2 — Categories of wildlife and fish
values and common evidence of

GemMand cue acintdhe Hecakeetaonde

4.3. — Participation and annual
expenditures in selected
recreational uses of wildlife and

fish in the United States, 1975....

4.4 — Projections of indexes of
participation (medium
population level) in fishing and
hunting in the contiguous States
by activity and region,

1990-2030 so. s:5 iis eas sc swes.n seen

4.5 — Numbers of endangered,
threatened and sensitive-to-
management species and major
subspecies in the United States,
by category and section, January

1979s oo cinsc aie ccd aaa eeaittcia. os

4.6 — Numbers of fish species and
major subspecies of recreational
and commercial importance
associated with forest and
rangelands in the United States,

by type of water and section .....
4.7 — Percentages of fishing days in the

United States, by species group

and type of water, 1975..........

4.8 — Average annual harvest of
Pacific salmon, by species and

type of harvest, mid-1970’s.......

340

Page

4.9

Page

— Harvests and commercial values
of pelts of furbearers sold in the
contiguous States, by section,
VOTSET OM, Rune tanialom ste ae tveketeh ol close oes

4.10 — Percentage distribution of days

hunting in the United States, by
land ownership and major
activity, 1975 o.,5.<5 uel Oh Es ee

4.11 — Average percentages of days of

small game and upland game

bird hunting for selected species

in the contiguous States, by

major land ownership and the

land ownership with major

potential for increased hunting,

by section, mid=1970'sicce geass 24

4.12 — Trends in harvests of principal

big game species and proportion

of big game hunters pursuing

species in the United States in

POTS SSE ae EE EN ted

4.13 — Average percentages of days of

big game hunting for selected

species in the contiguous States,

by major land ownership, and

the land ownership with major
potential for increased hunting,

By mid=1970 so ok ecto a cnats ates

4.14 — Average distribution of duck

harvest within flyways in the
United States, 1970-1977, by
SPECIES. jss.3i5,,5. 95.59.0155 4500 Sodelaaies eis ne

4.15 — Relative population trends in

selected nongame birds on forest
lands, by species and section of

the contiguous States,

196821977 aie. snscostareiss a -cyess Masaiarcetie create

4.16 — Major values associated with

wildlife and fish occurring on
forest and range land 16.3053 6s sais

4.17 — Relative importance of problems

faced by managers of wildlife

and fish associated with forest

and range lands in the United

States, by region, as judged by

Forest Service wildlife and

fisheries Biologists a's). 20 Mee

4.18 — Relative importance to wildlife

and fish of water-related

activities and conditions in the
contiguous States and Hawaii by
SECtion, 1975 Ae rt a

4.19 —

4.20 —

325) =

5.6 —

5.7 —

5.9 —

5.10 —

5.11 —

5.12 —

Fishable freshwaters of the

United States in 1965 and

projections to 2000................- 145
Capacities of fish hatcheries to

produce trout and warmwater

fish in the contiguous

States and the relationships to
production requirements by

section, 1965 to 2000............... 148

Condition of rangeland by States

in the United States, 1976........... 159
Condition of rangeland

ecosystems in the United States,

PSG re tokerorstete con cre erate Mataler ahs of8 0.6 m0 162
Forest and range land grazed in
the 48 contiguous States, 1976....... 164

Forest and range land grazed in

the 48 contiguous States by

ownership and by section, and

TOM MI Oe san dees os be ide camorae 165
Estimates of wild horses and

burros in ten western States in

DOP IOT A Vand 197 Grist eat cls) cl «01s 166
Current estimates of big game
populations in the western

SAU CeBatScinicdooodan en cocoomoer 168
Plants classified as endangered or
threatened in the United States

by date, classification, State and

land ownership, as of July 1,

OARS eR es ai As aN Re 170
Production of range grazing in

the 48 contiguous States, by

ecosystem group, by ecosystem,

and management level, 1976......... 172
Comparison of average total

grazing by kinds of livestock, for

the contiguous States, 1965-1967

and OTA=19NG i. ae sister statis 65.5 175
Historical and projected per

capita consumption of beef and

veal and lamb and mutton in the

United States, for selected
WeEDicgadvodad Goo 0 GOOG s Oo Oo Comic 177
Historical and projected

production of beef and veal and

lamb and mutton in the United

States for selected years ............ 177
Projected demand for range and
non-range grazing in the United

States under alternative

PROJECHIONS | tO) 2030 )srettel. cn seycps/ ales) oo. «1 179

5.13 — Indexes of projected demand
(medium level) for grazing by
sections and regions in the

Contiguous Statesitoteee esate. «

5.14 — Non-range grazing, 1976-78
average and projected grazing
capacity in the United States for

2000 andivZ030%i pesiceacs. cherie tite.

5.15 — Present and expected production
of herbage and browse and range
grazing on the two largest
grassland and shrubland

ECOSYSLEIMS'S cre:taiersivers eteverelte, oe eel'es/eibe

Timber

6.1 — Average annual production of
new housing units in the United
States by type of unit, 1920-1977,

with projections to 2030 .........

6.2 — Lumber consumption in the
United States, by species group
and major end use 1962, 1970,
and 1976, with projections (base

level) ito 2030 eee ee eeelral

6.3 — Plywood consumption in the
United States by species group
and major end use, 1962, 1970,
and 1976, with projections (base

level) to 20808 ve eee serves ay

6.4 — Board consumption in the United
States, by type of board and
major end use, 1962, 1970, and
1976, with projections (base

level) top203O PR au R i aieCrorctarverves

6.5 — Summary of total United States
softwood timber demand,
exports, and demand on and
supply from domestic forests,
1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976, with
projections to 2030 (medium
level) under alternative price

ASSUMP ULONS2 <1. Wore se leit eeises. os

6.6 — Summary of total United States
hardwood timber demand,
exports, imports, and demand on
and supply from domestic
forests, 1952, 1962, 1970, and
1976, with projections to 2030
(medium level) under alternative

Price/assuMptions):'<|. i.e hs. ve

6.7 — Forest growing stock in the
world, by area and species

SOUP HAN Gaie elie cnaie STN EcleuateNHORD «5's

Page

6.8 —

6.10 —

6.11 —

6.12 —

6.13 —

6.14 —

6.15 —

6.16 —

6.17 —

6.18 —

6.19 —

342

Establishments, employees and
value of shipments in the
primary timber processing
industries in the United States,

by industry, 1972... <c.cchtan® «<

Establishments, employees and
value of shipments in the
primary timber processing
industries in the United States,

by section and region, 1972 ......

Characteristics of the primary
timber processing industries in
the United States, by industry,
1958, 1963, 1967, 1972 and

191G is Fst doce sehwes geaae cice'ee

Characteristics of the primary
timber processing industries in
the United States, by industry,

section, and region, 1972 ........

Characteristics of the plywood
and veneer industry in the United

States, by section, 1972... 5 sss.

Area of commercial timberland
in the United States, by
ownership and section, January

Ly AOTD asonihan cee sais sas tos

Timber inventories on
commercial timberlands in the
United States, by class of
material and species group,

January 1977. sass ccheonaseo es

Growing stock and sawtimber
inventories on commercial
timberland in the United States,
by section and softwood and

hardwood, January 1, 1977 ......

Ownership of growing stock and
sawtimber in the United States,
by softwoods and hardwoods,

January 1s 1977 o caw ate tawte ss

Mortality of growing stock and
sawtimber in the United States,
by ownership and softwoods and

hardwoods, 1976 ............208.

Net annual growth of growing
stock and sawtimber in the
United States, by ownership and
softwoods and hardwoods,

DFG): srcresaie:arakd duaaare eis s astern E cs

Net annual growth and removals
of growing stock in the United
States, by species group and

SECTION 976 so c5 8 ek a ee es

Page

6.20 — Net annual growth and removals
of sawtimber in the United
States, by species group and
section,

LOT Ot eosrnsauvehs ee tees. 5

6.21 — Average net annual and potential
growth per acre in the United
States, by ownership and section,

19 7G v.:5.5.55 Npoeeuevn Sie. oaths steel eens: wie

6.22 — Roundwood supplies, net annual
growth, and growing stock
inventory in the United States,
by section and softwoods and
hardwoods, 1952, 1962, 1970,
and 1976, with base level

projections to.2030 0... ....6.6sja.sc.0u6 6s

6.23 — Sawtimber supplies, net annual
growth, and sawtimber inventory
in the United States, by section
and softwoods and hardwoods,
1952, 1962, 1970 and 1976, with

base level projections to 2030.....

6.24 — Roundwood supplies, net annual
growth, and growing stock
inventory in the United States,
by ownership and softwoods and
hardwoods, 1952, 1962 and 1976,
with base level projections to

2030 15% disrs heh cheaters areenios aeeetios e

6.25 — Sawtimber supplies, net annual
growth, and sawtimber inventory
in the United States by
ownership and softwoods and
hardwoods, 1952, 1962, 1970 and
1976, with base level projections

tO 20302: es BRACE See: 6.

6.26 — Summary of softwood timber
demand on, and supply from,
forests in the contiguous States
by region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and
1976 with projections (medium
level demand) to 2030 under

alternative price assumptions......

6.27 — Indexes of softwood stumpage
prices in the contiguous States by
region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and
1976 with projections of indexes

of equilibrium prices to 2030......

Page

6.28 — Summary of hardwood timber
demand on, and supply from,
forests in the contiguous States
by region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and
1976 with projections (medium
level demand) to 2030 under

alternative price assumptions......

6.29 — Indexes of hardwood stumpage
prices in the contiguous States by
region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and
1976 with projections of indexes

of equilibrium prices to 2030......

6.30 — Economic opportunities for
management intensification in
the United States which would
yield 4 percent or more on the
investment, by region, treatment

opportunity and ownership .......

Water

7.1. — Fresh water withdrawals in the
United States in 1975, by major
use, with projections of demand

HOPZOS OR eee crete ete ema ramel faa

7.2. — Fresh water withdrawals and
consumption in the United States
in 1975, by water resource
region, with projections of

demand: to%2030) opecice cieciecie cs eral

7.3 — Fresh water withdrawals and
consumption for irrigation in the
United States in 1975, by water
resource region, with projections

of demand to 2030...............

7.4 — Fresh water withdrawals and
consumption for steam electric
cooling in the United States in
1975, by water resource region,
with projections of demand to

LOS ORs calor aiausesnciovass sy arcn's 0s sat sllereyayene

7.5 — Fresh water withdrawals and
consumption for manufacturing
in the United States in 1975, by
water resource region, with
projections of demand to

DOS OM serosa seh srssaaicl chance vaece aiatatevo ate

7.6 — Fresh water withdrawals and
consumption for domestic central
use in the United States in 1975,
by water resource region, with
projections of demand to

QOS Oat cousssheyarpopeseroes versa aiecain seedless

Page

Vall

7.8

Page

— Fresh water withdrawals and
consumption for domestic
noncentral use in the United
States in 1975, by water resource
region, with projections of
demand "to;2030 nec. tees ere es ae

— Fresh water withdrawals and
consumption for commercial use
in the United States in 1975, by
water resource region, with
projections of demand to
ZLOB OP are, veneers eve il alates ees arin tas evaprre Wlevahere

— Fresh water consumption in the
United States in 1975, by major
use, with projections of demand
TOPZOSO Re eS ise cee ae

7.10 — Expected water supplies in the

United States, by water resource
PORIOM eee reaser eis es dito yetcve cuavere © eraushe

7.11 — Fresh water supply, percentage

depletion (current and projected)

in average and dry year, and

number of months consumptive

use exceeds 90 percent depletion

in average and dry years in the
United States, by region and

SUBDLE DION Mra crerelueucey nr epebcatenecctsh es

7.12 — Data for selected measures of

water quality from undisturbed
forest and range watersheds in
the United States, by division,
Province, and Section: .. +. a0 3s. a

7.13 — Percentage of hydrologic basins

affected by point sources of

pollution in the United States, by
region, source, and type of

POM WEIO Mera ecote alee easiest stare meas

7.14 — Percentage of hydrologic basins

affected by nonpoint sources of
pollution in the United States, by
region, source, and type of

POMULIOMPEE sorjate crolnorsteceseuseyo eters

7.15 — Estimated potential for

increasing water yield from
forested lands in the eastern
State siciaicieuss Severe ere eye eta Es elton:

7.16 — Summary of estimated annual

yield increases which could be
achieved in the Northwest

through vegetation

IMANAGCIMEN ciel ce ieeis tevetelacios ters et

7.17 — Estimated potential for
increasing water yield from
forested lands in the western
SHALES: aie. faves is ale dueyaveusrsiepe ard aieve-e a eevee

Multiple Resource Interactions

8.1 — Multiresource interactions in the
Southeast resulting from meeting
projected timber and range
grazing demands: «<2 200s ee tec ess

344

Index

Page

CAA MANTA say stcaysr esieaveleenewe ASV NCL a ae NR NS 317
las earners Weycise it sexe x, xi, 11, 17, 25, 44, 47, 51, 79
E COSY SLE MIE sweilerel hen staves oi ovctedonce ioveueusuoncuaneverse ats 47, 48
forest and rangeland area....... 47, 48, 160, 162
landvownershipyti cq ceectctte No eiio se sects ae 47, 48
NONCOMMENCIAlWOTESt ins ceainaloctels Melero lene whole 47
Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act........... 56
AIEte Tram VEHICles i.saieia\ers asain atl oats a hen aeons 80
altennativeaSSUMPLIONS o)..6.c:6 6 cis weieneiw isis evelae ores l
ECOMOMICHACTIVIEY oleae are snensiovcueloncroies ohevengiete 1,4
TTI COMIC eke sy eu iciee eA NEES EEE IGN ce 1,5
POP ULAtTOM Legs coos iakic hasierioiar ve were onanal eNO 1-3
anadromous fish.............0.0005 109, 119, 138
Appalachianwwlirailitsh Wei x ated was clere 66, 81, 98
AGUALICTECOSYSLEMS 2 Hic.chs sieieie!< o.clale oats 137-138, 317
aspen-birchiecosystemeics .c.senees eines es 29:77
DaSicvaSSUMPtOMs!!%' aiesseiars el DAES LL viii, |
Capitallavailabilityy ccaibvsie sacle sieic.s) TRU IE 5
disposable personal income ...............00- 4
EMENSVUCOSES IL Siaahe tate e ich c clan ciallale.cduavenbiey SPR Na eres 5
gross national product..................-. vill, 3
institutional and technological change ......... 4
OthersassumMptions) 0560 susceacds ce she eee se 8
POPULATION ees ie o5.a sas wile gue aust Ha 1, 3, 67
bigggame shunting esses - cee ye eo eee eae 139
[D)OY ESS) AU Sas ches ae eee SRS RAE bg 44
LOST s IG NAS a ae 122-124
board consumption and demand...... 130, 144-145
boatingsand’canoéing, Geos. se. ccesce aes 65, 66, 67
buildingyboard) fe hse ccs eccuae doen c dae wae 204-205
Bureau of Land Management (BLM)....... 47-48,
50, 74, 77, 81, 88, 105, 156, 166

burrs wild. ee idee elo 166-167, 188
CAMPING arise cciae eas wus eca ete 63, 66-67, 85-86
Geman 555.5504) 8 ee 63, 66-67, 85-86
developed Mayes scala Wao weem lakers 63, 66, 85
development opportunities ........ 63, 66, 73-74,
77, 85-86

dispersed ins aw Gak Suis rene ee 63, 66, 77, 80
participant.charactenistics 2.5: 4.5. .cese sane 67
SUP Ply cies seid o sreenteus amen: umalane omtenl aie 73, 85
chaparral-mountain shrub ecosystem ....... 42-43,
47, 155

COA Retake atvete ls ti coas Sees eae aA Slate eas 50-51
commercial fishing......... 112, 113, 119-120, 131
commercialitimberland) 4/5259 3.40 ssa ee 227
ANCA royce te Neveia eich auatelaie ice cuausvelaie eyes ns See 227
ARCAMCREMG Soe oieiand oie iar cienena steal oan 228, 237
GiSthiDUtlOMenty As cee Sete Tes Asie eR aiae 227

commercial timberland — continued Page
ECOSVSLEMIS 4.) csevelioiiss ouovsrovehanedebanale stabauarene otatavcnetete 228
OWNETSMID ee iia ocyoiaiehotterels 227-229, 264-265
PROG UICELVILY 5) shai cieloioretsletemeiotlettenntelel as ciara 231
timber production i. 205) sey sails Wie Os 231-235
COMSUMPLIVEUSEs.jycyelelerolstel sl olenelaomelels vill, 113-114
Continental (Divide Wraill sss ie .ivetirepa ahetotene ones 81
COMPOTAatey lad Mes erate: eieradeire:c: aicilesstelsiel syetscieycrelecs 73-74
desenty grassland iii. ckrsic)wectae clalatayeiien cskrates 30, 43
GESCRESHFUDUCCOSYSESMIG So oe: 5:2) 5.5 121516) wich suciicvene) sete oie 43
developed recreation activities ........ 66-67, 84-87
CATIMPIN Ly sreh Rr chete evoletare tera steborersiels hey cleesiietels 67, 85
COMMA eaten ches hs icileavedauetist hover «aan ehehecdeoualods. overs 66-67
development opportunities .............. 73-74,
77, 85, 97-100

IMCEGPTE CVE WSCTVICES 12 50) reir oi 01 Costes svetis otlevons 106-107
PICTICK Aa i seeiey sites aeer cic. d sishe: eheoatas Hele! avers aliakeler alee 73
SABI gece AAR I, MURR CN CHL 66, 90
SUPPL ysie a iene te: ¢ wrsteveteiene tous ane lel aeate aes ets 70, 72-80
SWATATINIA Sire vatier ate sists enisialenegeaaeiclat gare Ie 63, 66
VISILOF CENLETS ey iethedreia ocho tice oie ratenel ts le totais 73
development opportunities ....... 73-74, 78, 85-87,
90, 97-100, 140-150

boating and icanOeing iin. sisi )015.016 4) racial 66
CAMP Be estas AEM aha I 66, 85
developed recreation ............. 66, 73, 84-85
dispersed recreation....... 66, 73, 80-84, 145-148
JES OA Av AN i a RB REC 66, 73, 140
UES A ately. short ereitove offateceiena seater 73, 139-140
MOLOFIZEd ACtIVILIES)<.. 6 -.vejoie ce 'sle's sera 73, 77, 80
nonmotorized travel...........cceeeeeee 73, 80
FANLE coh he loteveds: sisisiieloeressushalievetevecehereerste 61, 169-170
SKM Go 1h. oie elas bh .c's oe poe ee 73, 77, 90, 247
(aU oYSS rel) A A US A ee ene 61, 141
WAL Tus yatctiman tin aicyran seiteiteleven ele uertpevereus tere cous 61, 316-318
Wate TOW ers ite Ale agit 'ecs ae: ws) aelroalls Mate ta Cte canal 144
WAGE ENIES Sy ticc gees tcdeseazevcat ef osl tiadetehctire secur 100-106
WATGLIT ey ere ici ticenane tee eae cre cB Ic dali 109, 140-149
disease, protectiOmMHe/= si). clererssetens 139, 151, 189, 317
dispersed recreation activities........ 63, 77, 80-84
boating and canoeing ............... 63, 66, 73
CAMPING eee aes eae stele alte eee bla 63, 80
Geman yey isveyshealecsel.o) chistes isiiade wisi ey ewauaneire 66-67
development opportunities ........ 66-67, 73-74,
77-78, 80-84, 97-100

motorized activities ...........eceeeee 73, 80-81
NOMMOLOMIZERNETAVE LS et ee tne BA Te ie 81
participant characteristics .................6. 67
SUPPLY eierersteteliescesean buesleljeusiisilay susie suieoee rate 70-71, 73-80
WATGERMESSH ete ioe eete ees eee icce eee rahattal treatin g NEL i00

Page
disposable personal income .................- Vill
Dowiglas-fir ecosystem . 6:60.40 ace. oo0 2408 38, 44-45
Gastern forest ecosystems. .4.052dcauevaeas 29, 38
ecosystems..... 26, 29, 30, 31, 34, 42, 44-45, 48, 59
elm-ash-cottonwood ecosystem ............ 26, 38
CHdaNnsered SPeCleS:«. secede ta Pd; 117, 128, 134,

136, 142, 160, 169, 188

Endangered Species Act .... 111, 116, 118, 128, 136
CNET OY e6 dis caine sini gieiak & Seas 53, 187, 209
shortages and. priceSsss 2:6 e665. 63 e828 187-255
environmental impacts, intensified management... .
247, 265

European timber situation ../........... 74) poe
CxNOMS cat. 4 bancusc eed veces oa ee cae 211-215
IORS ain aaln ee oe Ga oteaa ee eeeles een 211-212
MUTADET 5, He wsistsata oe ack suite aicrerses accent er mrt 214
miscellaneous wood products............... 215
pulp: products i. uiaiis 4 wean eee nse eu 214
FOURGWO0G>. so icicaracde est amey antes 211-212
Federal Water Pollution Control Act
AMENGMERS « os. 000. ese cet eas 302
TERY TAC Sot wo wad agen nee eu a arene we ee ve I
PEPUIZATION: ¢.:ou:heS wad cach atone De ele atalss |
financing range improvements............ 191-192
fir-spruce forest (Western) ...........20e005 38, 46
[ike PROLECHON si5'. wis camcad oon atatses. os 259, 318
fish (fishing) ....... 47, 109, 114, 120, 131, 145-147
A@NAGTOMOUS. 26552686 c40008%% 109, 119, 138, 146
COMMEICIAl 4.040 aed.erw caves eee 112, 113, 119-120
GOMIANG) sii dsu dco edieseuauereeh ease nere 110-118
PréshWateriassscssateeees San 109, 119, 145, 146
management opportunities ............ 109, 110,
117, 133, 139-150
OWNERS DIP! 5556s kind Deeweeeenevaanwde 109-110
SPECIES. CISIED) 4 34.0 69 Soa ce dees adis 114-115, 119
SUDDIVS accaes ao es viseeuesaeesewsnes 119-121
tCNGS 1644.csoa'wa ue vase haces akencteen ces 121
fish and wildlife resource information needs ....140
PISHNAICNENIES s c..24 6nd eS ee 119, 146-147
NOGGIN Si ssie iu esa 5a See eee 296-301, 314
LOTABE Sics Aue whied asthe dala Reuieeeeeen s Seadoo 155
GEMANG, 60st'n2 ime sbensonieianeeeetooee te 167
PFOGUCHION 5 cs sices ad sd VeRO Rouleaae 161, 187
Forest and Range Land Renewable
Resources Planning Act 4.0 sas 0d(csteitale sista Vill
forest (and scwde ses ees ees vill, 11, 26, 38, 44, 227
Alea coowners aa ee ee ae 14, 47, 227
ATCANITCNGS: ib.5t alia ace oe een 14, 29, 33, 40, 47
DASE ob eta wares deesiecd, bale orale ei are OEE 11, 38

346

forest land — continued Page

Peopraphic .disteiDutiOM) 2... c:sreogerciensendoeie Ligesil
MAJ ORMUSES .0i3 hie Sc 2% 28s oa Serene blge23
OWNETSHIP: 5 s5:6 4 serossser 15, 29, 33-34, 40, 47-48, 229
PFOMUCtIVIEYK. <2 c0.00 82% DAPI xi, 16, 17, 40, 48
vegetation charactefistics soi. 2ieeiiades wee: 11
Water areas, ON. sence so Sesh 24, 26, 44
forést-Tange <i. dt :nceuisiod. gaan ARS 11-61, 227
freshwater f1Shing 3 6cio-.isie ais cede cee i PN 119
LUELWOO wis cieraie ds das od oe a ARIA Re 208-210
{UE DEATOTS: siceaes ancestors 113, 121-122, 131, 142, 143
prain supplies‘and demand :...i. sinc.ducnet 174, 175
CTASSIANS “hcioid sian sacle We aiaetis wid weer 30, 48
PRAZING 55% dod 5 60k 64 rs eee eee ane 47, 161-165, 187
demand, 6 ssc cciseke nn 164, 171-173, 175-176, 186
PFOdUCHON a. <6 cawesicin dt aw oR 167
USE a cicb es ok cases dG nates 161, 167, 184
gross national product... ... 65. lee vill, 3-4
Proundwaten s.:4.c ccs os0008s Has 284, 287-290, 292
growing stock ......+ 2enwevas Jamies 218, 233, 246
PTOWU, PEF ACTE. a5. c:4504 Sousees eee 233-234
growth-removal balances ........ 235-236, 245-246
habitat, wildlifé:s::...ccomeiesech eek tio Ss 314324128:
131, 134-136, 139-141
hard wWo0d: 24.004 sbead neces 32, 38,6221 '2360242
hardwood demand-supply balances... .242, 251-252
hardwoods...... 32, 38, 220, 236, 242, 246, 251-256
QNGAs si ctenne See van daweee- nomena 218, 228-229
CONSUMPTION «6 es cies w Hee Pee 205, 206
GeMANG: 3 5242.5.5-04.2 Hotes oR 220-221, 251-252
CASUERN 2520420 ese oSeeaewueneaee 29, 38, 236
prowing stock .24s..0.s Li datar Weak 218, 245-246
growth and removals . 2.22.0... ....40% 236, 246
IMportsiand ExpOIMmts. scien Lis. oss Os 211-217
OWNERSHID: Giana oh a Senwen ees saemanenys 228, 246
production from U:S. forests.......... 21925256
SUPPlIGS. csna ea diin ween cea 219, 242, 246, 256
VOIIME 2% «3 Fas. 34 Spa S SS ARE aS 219,221
HAtCHEFIES 25454 san ecc betes ee eee 47, 145-147
hiking (see nonmotorized travel; wilderness)
horses; Wild s45.3..202%.cs eset e 166-167, 188
HOUSING. ..issesseaetscasch es ee at cee ae nee 197
HUNG «65.5 3 Meese eke 73, 109, 132, 148
DIFWAME sict oi tcaed soeartateres. 123, 132, 148
demand 2's saaciwiasxeaesswes 110, 113, 115-116
management opportunities ................. 140
Small PamMe) ss. 6540 2% «aie AR ee 122, 132, 148
SUDDIYS 24 cio sree hima t wetetreier 12255123
(FAPDING 65464 ods soa aes eueeee ae 11324131
tPENdS 32d. ses eaetecet at aadshsts ieee ee 123-124

hunting — continued Page

Wate OWT. e215 ores) sislchcl als-o. a5) shen) sudlisreslaveneye 124-126
hydroclectric: DOWety.cralsvr1sle1s1 <1. stelle ovctebeto.etouste 286
TITNPORUS Ese ayey ie ce toy eos ees « asrenter efor 4 lleo oral avay avdlaberictrene 216

NUIMIDET. rece, c Cyeacvene Rbete Seer 5 of bts Siadetor. Mae fh 216

miscellaneous timber products.............. 216

plywoodtand veneet sacs). 5 cleieleisicy so eneteeiete 216

PUlPANGIPADEH acer. ceensreeacais seosers citecsicesi6 5.01 -sis) oe 216

FOUN W OOM eo ia) c/o 0: sitarcs sl onehay snes eelebeite eaten Ollie ras 216

woodpulp....... TGs taletiataseiveversy yee, «IRLARERM TS luo 216
income, disposable personal........... vill, 4, 173
INGUStHIa lAWaSlE oot wereva ets. cpsrekareys 6's of yoker ee 305, 310
infonmationyneedsy .\. oslo. esac es 107, 327-332

cost surveys of management practices ....... 329

demand and supply projections........ 329, 331

PoalszanGyobjectives cs... sere cise sue xe 32754332

impacts of demand-supply changes..... 329, 331

Kesearcn teCHMIQUes, «1056's. «5 «1 107, 329, 331

HRESOUNCEMINVENTOTV ec sce cc sisieieics = 4 0 Ske 327, 330

resource system responses to

management changes....... 219, 328-329, 330

surveys of product prices ............. 329, 331

SUGVEVS Of, PRODUCE USE. 65.6 «5 ore: creteies 329, 331
INSECtSDROLECHLOM <reye tee ess: syeve rere wjoieneh eee 139, 151, 317
insulation boards 5% seuetic2)~ sit. sees sles 197, 202, 203
intensive management...... 169, 219, 247, 260, 265

environmentallimpacts,): 2. . ./elss ea. Reems: 247
inventory needs (see resource inventory needs)
investment opportunities. >... see asics choos 264-265

construction improvement ................-- 266

DRI ALE ROWE Tye cperalercistans 6; ates ha) a-06<! eves NencheTR Aer 264

RESIS RUSE tera ateyaie viaveianemsesale pets sels 266, 269

SAVAGE He ss cha. ci ato nats, ecanotale ieee te «dave nn Shape ete 267

technology in manufacture............ 266, 269

Utilization improvement (ipa Als <a -eicieiocotel: 266
IDMMIB ATION Lusiicicverois) «evenewe ore « 219, 258, 276, 284, 293
Wala Meee ov aces ara eccy chia asics) aisha) sa) oe: doef oy 3e ebay Souane ts 217

PROWINPEStOCK ras icis visi a tare ocd e ssava's «SAIS 217

tiIMmMbercSitMatlONiirccs siecraceatyerdce en haere ste 217
TANG GAC Ar eer dts waiers cin coset alee rotate ran tases 11-14, 227
land classification..............2000- 11, 100, 117
IDG! USO cho H beds ooeh Goaowouo oes 23, 100, 117, 227

LEVATOR Ac en erie Pee Ola 23

MINCEAISM A oes AP Wk celiac eee 23, 50-53, 56

outdoor recreation . 2.6.5 2324.31.73

HINDER arc stones acces ae 23, 26-29, 31-33, 227

WALET SOURCE 5). ere la ie 0 euctebone miei eters tetsu 23, 25, 286

Wild EGNESSa-7.72). - 1) Martyapsune esc 23, 40, 47, 100-107

wildlife habitat ....... 23, 32, 35, 40, 43, 47, 117

Wil Gif ewnefUl BES rvs titers eicisreysuevsie nrecn os os ereeneusrauens 47

Page
LARCIECOSY SUOMI) 55-255) «25s: oh syay o} tay okel oes ap hao oh NG 39
least=costi production) « «<4, «<2. sistas Acer deere 269
NVESCOCK MCCA ie a oie ectiees'e ie loses ool shee ana ehenaNS 174-177
beeficonsumer preferences... <).,..c 20% 173, 176
energy shortages and prices ................ 187
price relationships, o/s) <iciels sec susie estes 174-177
livestock; Water USE:..)::<, ncveteyercharetskeloctoncusdtelsreiewit 275
loblolly-shortleaf pine ecosystem............... 31
lodgepole pine ecosystem ........ SCE es Ca 39, 46
logs-sworlditrades,-/. arjers: 21-95 uspaseteeinnseke 214, 217
JEON 901 oYST ce ase eaten aI elegy Glace mgs SCant 203, 214, 216
consumption and demand............. 203, 224
EXPDOMES fay scaiar sh ahaii sls delay ele; si oliot Nor oreireneiten Aameieaae evenats 214
BURO Pe) tis Sista goss) are '6-lorarenaley 6) ua, 1a Seu eee ES 214
PIMPORES C5 ere sia wishelai icrele)'s6 4 6 cy aiey sla ce «seal 216
MAND AT 5 a)'sc tla ss anos silalicn ash aun o'el sila, aaetlen Are menN aitelK's 214
USCA eo) 2 wes ai/at trast a} assed eneiconae aire arabe none 203, 224
McSweeney-McNary Forest Research Act ....... l
IVVAUIIN AAS) se sie sca 515) Sieh ss ate chs, ayo ayer oeds es eeNotc 142-143
management opportunities (see development
opportunities)
maple-beech-birch forest........ sacs: dud SASL OTS 26
TOA ce Po icu a exces e's b0, cies orrort ae SMoba Cats Hah « Lattttotrels 171-174
CONSUMPHIOM TKENGS 25602). 6)5. 3 4)s85 6s. oleter ere 3 173-174
SINAN goo al oa oa) ceo laceneien deepens ks 173, 176
IMIPOLUS shoes vecsiit atverate Som cares Siecomeegeien spelt Meath 174
IIMIMIE TALS oy casey ssctsa raredertes aio eon ee ciate alsa ol eter shake 49, 50-52
IMMUN Gs aeetseoe tet Sane ccarel ene, sua esi ctenens 325,93515058139
HMPA Ch Sore cvehereie opener es srs reruioeekciot ontichobelfene 52-53, 56
DOMUtIOM eo yereetenert clencratuerapeusashsusns 53, 56, 139
miscellaneous wood products............ 215, 216
COMSUM PUL OM yes org, 5505 wale aes 8 boi esos ays wren ge eyeue PALS)
EXPONtSmrrer rcs MSM eat ei aal haters ale Bier a wlerinves 216
HIMPOM Sepak cic whe munis oe allies alne Giles Gla, sue 216
MOORIZEd ACHIVITIES aes owelcis os 06 wise 5 ce ss 67, 73
Gemand adie. cisco ltt on cis siecnls es ais iecels wiuece 67
development opportunities ............... 73-74
SUDDIVAieaks cir toe ere ltoraeseue oleic leiecneie ecesue es 73-74
multiple use......... 24, 61, 73, 141, 150, 265, 273
National Forest Management Act............. 268
National Park Service.............. 74, 76, 77, 88
National Park System...... 47, 74, 76-77, 103, 105
National Recreation Areas............. salsa 78
National Recreation Trails................ 78, 81
National: Scenic rails Wns) 25 See ee 78, 81
National Trail System Act ................ 81,97
National Wild and Scenic Rivers System.... 78, 88
National Wilderness Preservation System ...... 78,
100-101, 105
National Wildlife Refuges........ 47, 100, 106, 140

347

Page

Natural ATEAS: «66-2 occ ed covadnaan cle cameras 104
noncommercial forest i016 05006638 226598 127
NONCONSUMPtive USE. 62406 sve ccevc ees 115-116, 148
noncorporate land ss4.6..es eh cies we ee es 13
nonmotorized traveln.4,.935.5 2. So 28k 63, 66, 82
GEMANG - 5.5.4 pos pied do nie dae wGre » Melber eree 66
development opportunities .............. 66, 82
participant characterisites .....0s..644.7 0414 66, 82
SUDPLY. daccbcessnac can etlnsiasenanee 66, 73-74
nonresidential CONSITUCHION «.« « 6. 00:4d06 senses 200
oak-gum-CYpress ECOSYStEM 6:5 dsee os am co ee ES 32
Oak=hickory forest <.a05.5 sh/itelalewdeaneeeses 29, 38
Oak= Pine fOrestyisceaysxin sd Oe aay od waeinewe ote 32
ofi-road, yehicles:. sais 24; A RRaOR ed Soeede ce 82-83
GUL SHAIG i s204 Uigicdea’e sien apse wee on one w eae ee 52
OULGOOr TecreatiOn « <s.6 es omsadwacecs aces 63-107
activities (listed) 4 Wan 2eeils ook eae ts xii, 63
benetitsroltsce cae on cree ae ee eee 63,96
boating and canoeing... 4.55600 000<0% 63, 65-66
data collection® : sein bee ee hho 99, 107
demand and supply......... 66-71, 72, 74, 93-99
Geveloped s cs 3.6sscndew abetted oes 66, 84-87
development opportunities ........... 66, 72-74,
85-87, 94, 97-100

GISPCESEG Sitawise.c ba ehad eHow Ke cuaeles 66, 80-84
ECONOMIC IMPACIS ..«.c hs56.44s<09S Senate 66, 95
AISHING Wer edn se YE ks Oo ae eee deen oes 63, 73
information needs i 2a0s-4 4304 Sons 99, 100, 107
MOtONIZEd ACUIVILIES Sc 2sccdseeaterees es 73, 74
nonmotorized thayel. S532... te yas 63, 66, 82
PAKS Sicsuwfeteiiees ss seeodeaneas tan kane oe 73
PAMCIPAlION 344200 Vha se dee 63-64, 66-67, 94, 99
SKING Gace ecs cdeedsasatiuaaat ees 63, 65, 90-91
SUPDIV <2 $e eset ba ose a ea eees ear 72-80, 97-100
EAM Spats over revavs a: ora acstenaeteneyedysrsae one 63, 94, 99
WIGEINESS 25.24 36 ed, exe oda weme ein 100-107
OWNERSHIO: ote cau ea caceguaiet xi, 29, 47, 48-49, 264
Alaska land te siss sn sacs Otte Fatale atisn oe 47-48
forest and Tange land .sienccisx ocles xi, 29, 47, 49,
227, 229, 264

prazed and ungrazed, area s<sssisc% cen d's 156-157
BTOWING SOCK « 605450) wee ae teks 233-234, 246
TIMPOTANGCE: oss 6h oe a Shemale eal ele ate 264
management levels on forest-range...... 264-265
FANGCIAN s 0 's%/eia-wieis x1, 30, 34, 43, 48-49, 156-157
roundwood supplies; ./.ce0sis.ot ws 237-238, 246
SAWUMDER Yi hia 4 Civ bt SUM at ie teas 233, 246
SawtimDer SUDDINES.44:>.4.04.04.6 oe one es wears 233

trends for commercial timberlands ..227, 237-238

348

ownership — continued Page

PIMDE Faetigelkaleotiee eras arate ais aeiveens 227, 229, 246
Pacific: Crests Trail isos. « sissteras isch ASE GE ee 81
PaAlletsss 2 siaicis aes sidue sissies deal eens ole tea Sepia 201
paper (see pulp and paper; pulpwood)

DATKS KOs sis BS eae Tear MRS 73, 76, 78-79
PICMICKING:: iss. vies ois oie dere 5s, od AAMAS AARON 63, 66
PUNE. 2h dahs bs odes anaes ood am eeetoneen tee 207
pinyon-juniper ecosystem .......... 38, 43, 46, 155
plains: grassland : iia 556scccncaas cage 34, 184
plants;:endangered «.«.5.5.025 22922 OIE Ce 169
ply woodst iG ssks dase lat naweasat 201, 224-225
POLES Wie odie scle shaie Ss acdinrwaPnanen eee ene 207
pollution: a SfeFews OIG Re 60-61, 305-308

DIPS ei: cvs o ole occ SOA Las Eee en 305-308

Waleh sii Bassins ones c@ssine 138-139, 305-308, 314
ponderosa pine. ecosystemisji.0 YES A te. ak 38, 46
population...2. .aaewse snes 1-3, 67

ALES IClASSES:. 00's esas siejsials on MN te 3, 67

recreation participants soo), Pee a 65, 67

trends..and, projections ....2 232.026 .2:eae 1-3, 67
POSISI Ad a edie c Adlainiaase Ah ME ee 207
Praises ssw ssacnosia’ns SIGS 29-30, 34
Precipitation ». «.6c60 2 oss wal chin Se Fe 287
price changes, impact on timber demand...... 201,

247, 264
price. increase effects, <n... 4.25108 201, 247-252, 264
PFICES 2A OG 2a Oh redid AR ea iey, 247-254

Douglas-fir stumpage -< «2s 0 esees oes 247

effect on timber demandviti oi 22080. 35010 247-252

hardwoods. i so0sciedsacncrede <a HAM 251-252

SOPWOOES? siacckccec ch cad evns nsec Beet 247-251

southern pine: stumpage; «oi 5.05 2204.5 « Stes 250

wholesale. lumber indexs 22. 9030..24 Sek 250
private Owner investment opportunities .... 264-265
pulp-and: papers 0.2.5. sds<0ds ps0 soe ececetoes 204
Pulp PLrodUcts) 2 os.6020 45535000 69 Kore cieee 204, 210
pulpwood...... Mieiends od dacgeedorere 203-207
FANGS see ssc seiswenseestewesact 11, 30, 155-194

AIA. Fis. calseatenera weld eae wats ee eas 14, 156

biological: potential 2466 3600 hue ea 184

CONGINION 6 s.s's40 cxveciosieesceeeteesen 157-158

current management: oi 52566 d24s access 169-170

GEMANG Sins as eee Hae os 171-173, 175-180, 181

development opportunities ............. 169-170

ECOSYSTEMS fo abs dsm ate nk eee Nae ee. tee 160

factors affecting demand’. #3... sss.eeeee 175-176

feed grain and forage demand .............. 175

téedprice relationships"..</..2s.2dsi2% 6 oe seer 175

financing? ssi 245 Sse 335 Sel Seok 191-192

range — continued Page

fOfrage PLOGUCLION:. scl. oils; sieleinie)s n=! 189, 192-193
forest-range definition............. 11, 155, 161
geographic distributiony..:4.).-). sees see « 155
RAIN ates a ctie ics wads atste telrsiotanis 42, 174, 177
PTAZCOVAT CAM Neste icrtnsdctcneteen ence Catania 161, 165
grazing demand ............. 161, 167, 171-173,
178-179, 181-182, 186
PEAZINS PROGUCHIOM aceite che elevate ce cuarle ale sole 167
GRAZINGEUSE areca vee e een ores ayn: 15501562 157
HIVESCOCKCEE MS iiisiniec cic neeseniseicas 174-175, 177
MAJOMUSES cates tna 156-157, 161, 166-167
management opportunities ..... 169-171, 189-191
meatademand erences ete kona 17, 173-177
Ownership™.. vi. -).\- xi, 30, 34, 43, 48-49, 156-157
production potential ............... xi, 171-173
PLOGUCLIVItY/). i. )ts0 x1, 35, 43, 48-49, 157, 171
NESCATCH eter eek A latte k teh la ele totes 192-194
RESOURCE Rey reece ene Rata aero Iececicy a Le DAR 11, 192
resource information needs................- 194
KESOUICeMInNVENntOny) MeedSri. cise es ae ee es 192
NEStOLAtIOM poet ilar c lattices elst ct alatahcvhatelnee eaeaes 189
KENELCCATTOM ier. nascar cists dc orat aN ist. areata atet trait 189
technicallassistance muito esc ealeee nese 191
UISESIa aereicedcte cy SNe a nch abhal 155, 156, 161, 166-167
vegetation characteristics ........ 11-14, 40, 158
WIHTARMOESES tcteperan tah SA cteN Ht Osos Oe (NEL IMU NGN 188
rangeland)... 4240052 x, 11, 30, 34, 40, 48, 155-194
ROARED eta tacts Matlin Aa eC Od} 105
FECTEATION eos ciclo oe cls ste lars ee ars hina, 32, 63-107
LEA WOOGTECOSYSLEM ih) cetera oes ene as 44
FESENCTAULON My Na roller chaste old et Nae Any 256
renewable resources..............e00- xiil, 1, 321
Renewable Resources Planning Act ...... V, vill, |
Research Natural Areas ................. ..... 104
FESCATCHINCEOS iia Naver sh. Mas, ka wae 107, 194
data collection techniques.......... 63, 107, 192
developing policy and program operational
CHILCRIAN cde eee kaw a4 Mee 107, 150-152
impacts of demand-supply changes.......... 107
methodology for projecting trends .......... 107
research opportunities........... 99, 107, 139-150,
256, 266, 316
residential construction......... 166-167, 188, 197
resource inventory needs... 540.52 S2723311
data collecting techniques.......... 63, 329, 331
PASTA oo) wes gy ah ek ser out APM Uy fee A) SUMS PLC USEF 329
landiclassification i040) St een, Hee 328
outdoor recreation..............0ccee 63, 329
LTA Ot Gb O1.6 CIC ee CO DIR BiG SiS arene ale 194, 327

resource inventory needs — continued Page
[BU OO OY=S Reece EA Steyr Mae ne ER aH DPA ei 331
Walle Raatitek tetera te taete a teh reer ey Mean an tty DUNN) Pi]
Will dbif ey ey UH Pe MGR Reels ee abeeg LCM aaL AA MRE Naa 329

resources (see renewable resources)
resource system responses to management

CHANGES iehiys stereo hare safe te xill, 139-150, 321-325
fishvand swildlifer sige, Vee aes 139-150
multiresource interaction’ (251%). so. so 321-325
FANS HY rola te tats teabape re torah ad tec ume terials 321, 322-323
PEMADO Tas atten atalalcdatotetotee tae 21982472 3210323
WALT SPA teR cee harre tae Ga Tatane Tale tains ea darana ts Nar Neat ae 323
Resources#Planning Act }).c cake Soar 273, 290
FEVELELALION( 1.624.452. trafelnrotetetaisrnte stkehe eiaetate wenn We 313
REVETS etter leletate rafal ti (a avapenenltara inte Clana Meek mc 87, 88-90
TECKCALILON: OM sh Cshatshonsheeterarehete otal stete SEE oe ce 88-90
SCEMIC Stk HatamadarebenctelhalotameniPalaglcatunode alee stots Rie Anas 88
WIT cist ser Scheme castle te atcae settee fa ota ate wane 88
FOUNG WOO! ihe Sie 5 ois ehedetolete alae 197, 208, 210, 247
consumption and demand..... 197, 210, 220, 247
demand from |U.S. forestsic8 = 5222 see Te, 217
European timber. situation’: 22205 /50.40..02..0% 218
ROWE MeN relate beltelratetivalehe te aketatebeheacie ae ise < & 217
Japanese timber situation ...\.\.. 525.00. 2%2. 2. PA
projected: supplies).\.:4/.\..5. 1: Gelso a ee as 238, 247
PEMVOV AISI ss sererctohe tote tsectaNe Sahota taalaletatelaratole cs 235-236
timber demand-supply relationships .... 210, 247
timber production... .ei ne: 220-221
WES timber supplies "1-..''. ates 218, 238, 247
world timber situation............. 216, 218-220
RUMOM elo sta ctanete a cercee Meenece o eieeeens 287, 310, 316
SAVEDFUSMECOSYSECMA ache cis fers late ore) e crayon e cule 42-43
SAV ABCC re ys eters core. jiactcrare steric aie iaue ee sbensies eiclior sie 267
SAWHlOQS essreretelstwi cree ienshaea sroicneraie a olis eit a lanecaxe users 268
SAWLIMIDe Tir hecshastens metals eleenie rattan a inte haber went 210
consumption and demand).).5.).0 6. oe oe cineuere 210
demaind! frommUrS: fOrests i's o2.¢ ots e/s) si ace, ch wions 220
ROWE e ys cioisiscderant tel uel ol etaetalelel sbeseet an snake 233-234
PROjectedysupplies ei) ie Uesteceaspalsiele 238-239
NEMOVAl Sires stay olen eereterchs et/etellave sy Norse eis ere) aos 235-236
timber demand-supply relationships ......... 247
WES Mitimber SUPPHES .)s.5 co2) 5.5 «kee neereesh nets 220
Sediment TUNnOffl ee ieee osha 137-138, 305
SHIP PUM erate seve sre ee sishers ties ache wietocaye ea sills 200, 202
Shrubland src payee ese latel a) seks rare MMIC) eta uaa 34, 48
SKIS MLCMATACLETASTICS 5, 295) <uoysieveneves Nerensyerecchoneverme anes 67
SKA Seven imp eensblavebsyevenereieeenameetienene a petals 63, 65, 90-91
GEMAN jesse Seabee ausilelsnerelalneaeneaes cust aah A at, 66
development opportunities... 0.5... TX 91
facilities see ees Si tie eter ney ale Tegan 63, 90-91

“9

349

skiing — continued Page

participant. Characteristics <s.i.6.0< 54.0005 castes 67
SUDDI sits erbsantnoratasgdonsarened 73, 90-91
small game hunting «2... 4<s%0s6s46 122, 132, 148
SHOW MANAGEMENt 4. \.0c sccm ca desea seen 91.314,
SHOWMODINES 0.3 cee seh ot euse seared 63, 90-91
softwood demand-supply balances ........ 247-251
SOMWOOGS: <.s6/s tas o0 Ses teed 218, 237-245, 247, 259
BLCAS «Shia pias a eewnes sasew asst ees 227-229
CONSUMPUION:. 52.5 2550544 55000seean% 203, 247-251
deMand” is4 vac exe soe hes aeees eae x 2035.215
PTOWING STOCK we cide ncaecs eeeae 218, 231, 245
growth and femovals « s.60s0%% 05 25 sei 235, 245
imports and CxpOrts:.. ss.+ 224044 400445 214-215
OWNCISHIP! 2.05.65% s2.9 42 Dod Ghee cue ted 264-265
DIICES 2 52 PRs 5 oc tad wae RARER sae ae 247-252
production from U.S. forests. ....2....'.. 220-221
SUPPIIES? Sicces thet etceat 218-219, 237-245, 247
VOIUING sc: 23.F 2s ode. aeysaetn sam abortus 218
southern pine ECcOSYsteM 42.043 .4.25..%5% 0585 Sy 32
Spruce-tir forest (¢astern): scsice5.0ek eae oad 26
StANIC CONVEPSION 22 65 355048 diene ews 257, 259-260
Statid IMprovement ..i.scs.e<ndd 257-258, 259-260
Steam electric Cooling 6.645 604<8 05 276, 284, 287
SUREAINTIOWS «cco. Bawcaye ceuln eens aa 286, 294-296
stewardship manapement... 6.442 2 nnsats 0 cs sie 171
SUTMACE WALEIs 62% «sed 35 6 dis 94 wo metare pense 287-289
SUIVEY TIGEUS:-..da 4 O08 2k ce Niteewaw woe ate 329
costs of:management practices. 2.2 ...:442%..05 331
data collecting techhiques:<. 5... .ssdv.ce 4 329
forest and range product prices 2... +4464 331
HOLESE PTODUCIS USC's d.c's o4.s4u is eee esa eo ee 329
OUIGOGr TECKEAHON USE: .< 5.443.0.5.:05i2.02 63, 329
fanve land Useicheew. oo. ose oe eaten 194, 331
vimiber Products: Use 2 64356 eas ore aa wee 329
Wildlife USE“ Ais 2 fac /sau.. obo ees oe epee 329
swimming ....... Acids, SIRO we whe alate lazer 63573
techmical assistance W462) i8ne oc se 150, 265, 316
technological Changes 04.0.2 vein. wae Fee 265, 268
PUNE 600.5 satena/s 2 Este asta = See nee ne oe 265
CINDER yee ase eeu Phe dae ot yes ee naeena 197-270
CONSUINPUON 5 ssid ia ccecrne aie slore he PE ee ee Vill
demand-supply relationships .......... 197-211,
237-238, 247

PYOWING SOCK 2.2.55 24s aaa Gauin eee nae 218, 229
CIOWUN 04's enecnucuio stores 231-235, 245-246
erowth-removal balances <:. 05.2 6010s nels 236
hardwood demand-supply balances..... 242-245,
251-252

management opportunities ............ 141, 219,

247, 259-264, 265

350

timber — continued Page
price increase effects: 22) s.<.4%:t4. 25. 5252.294-256
Processing iNdUStHes. . < .4 scx msm oder 221-224
projected supplies.... 218, 237, 247-251, 256, 263
FEMOVAIS? 555% als, See ee Stet eaeed 235-236
Pesearch’ ss sascc vse asees 258-259, 266-267, 269
softwood demand-supply balances ..... 237-242,
218-219, 247

U:S: resources and*supplies *..:..: 218, 227-228,
237, 256-257, 259

utilization opportunities ;.2...54.4% alae 266-269
timber ‘demand... . 24... 197-211, 220-221, 237, 269
Oar 2652 boss cacss Cok ant oe he eee 203
Europeanisituatione ):% Asss86 a. 2S secs Ay)
HOUSING) < sb ors a6 42% ee kre 166-167, 188, 197-200
Japanese: SitUAHON! 24. s5 622 6405 ere alae ser tees 217
lumber. iiss 22ha cde estas 201, 202-203, 224
ManwulactUrings . 4.02.06 0.0h 5s 55% 200, 224-227
miscellaneous timber products..... 202, 204, 207
nonresidential CONnStTUCtIONs, 2... \16%-ng-acoeyeriere 200
DIVYWOOd $05 ST RSS oh wwe hae ee 202, 203, 224
Drice Changes: 42 .ae eA ts 201, 237, 247, 254-256
pulpwoods.i124.25 5.45455 eee eee 203-207
Found Wood jamie ss oss 210, 197, 220, 239-240
SA WEIDER ye 5 oc 32 oss anacysteeereaes meets 210-211
SH PANG 5.5 .as $l wiw eo, a'srsisoe 0.8 0:6 crepe oa eae 200, 202
Une MSECtrENdS A isk gees ER ee oan ee 201-202
utilization improvement .. 201, 210, 219, 266-269
world timber trends: . 242.2%. 197-201, 218-220
tIMBEF INVENLOTY 208s ond gies ee 229-231, 246
NEGUS ici osu eee ees va eee SEs Hes oes 228
OWNERS! 5.4% 2 s.42 FNS sek 229-231, 246, 264
SIZE aNd SPECIES.2 63,5. canitis Soe verde eeeT 229
timber mortality <fi2 34 weet wor ame 231, 245-246
timber products trade 2245. a= 2 tase se ears 211, 220
European Sittiation:.«..i.6,7. Saab avd esate 21207
EX POrt ATENAS =a csaks qotes spe eee 211-215, 217
UMpPOrt trends: Gs o058 v0 4's a eee 215
Japanese situation»). .%..84..% 211, 214-215, 217
IOS*EXPOMts «.9i.seo apaiteloareers Mephitis 214, 217
lumber EX POrtss 65 oak os a aes ei oes 21S; 207
lumber imports: 300 eh eek 216, 217
miscellaneous productS Exports,.<< aiycecr eset 215
miscellaneous products imports............. 216
plywood and veneer imports ............... 216
production from)U.S: forests* .2..,5. 5s esee 217
pulp and ‘paper imports.’ ...<...s4.f ees 216
pulp; products exports .. 0. 2.0 sme aor aero 214
WS trends... nti e rae <4 ays ee ene oe eons 238
world forest resourcesies 24 22455 mients 218-220

timber products trade — continued Page
world timber supply potential .......... 218-220
world timber trends................26- 216-218
timber’ products use’... ..5 54. ....:. 200-204, 226, 269
timber resource informaton needs............. 236
timber resource inventory needs .............. 228
timberland, commercial......... 227-228, 237, 264
ANCANCKENGS Aa aes Meal deta wathetabetan numer ele 228, 237
distribution: eae: cers ote tee oe ces 221
OWMETSHIP I cesta sterols clcl et isl ee) here 227-229, 264-265
PROGUCLIVILY aor sees <r e ial ch ch slate chet ctl ollototanct ot cn ellonerte 228
roundwood outputs sees s eee osc s ee ees 229
timberland, noncommercial ...............+6- 127
timber products ........... 200, 202, 204-207, 269
trallStes etre BA A exe oak eerie, CID 81
Applachian’ Mrailes yc 4 cad spe 3s cleo oe 66, 81, 98
California Aqueduct Vraill ..)06:.. 6.5 cies 6 scars 81
Continental Divide Trail.............. ne A 81
GESIQNAUON Ne Re ee ie eee ee cave laleea slates 97
National Recreation.............2eceeceeees 81
NationallSceniGn meson occ ceca ees 66, 81, 97
nonmotorized travel............e0ceeeee 80, 81
off-road vehicle use .............008. 80, 81, 83
Pacificu@restalinall se ircye re cise ooo oy Serene eee 81
Potomac Heritage Drails. 6.0%... « cistestecevs sponges pris 81
REGHEAULOM prec yare er oe aia Ae tond cree Tole wie eoeres eau 66
SCENIC She eee eee ee ear Uc aee eens 78, 81
tral DOIN Beene eis clave losis ph natien euaunteusis aus 113, 131
tropical hardwoods . .. ...5,.,. «sss... 216, 218, 219
URDATIWLOFESUS )cueepeiices siete ouopeustonsliey sa) scey Seoe cen 59, 100
U.S. roundwood consumption....... 197, 208, 210
U.S. timber resources and supplies... 218, 227, 237
commercial timberland ............... 227, 229
growth-removal, balances, . ...< sist see cies » oe 236
hardwood demand-supply balances...... 251-252
management opportunities .... 219, 247, 260, 265
PEICCVINCEKEAScuchleECtSy. tare esse colo ue ase tae 252
softwood demand-supply balances ...... 247-251
timber demand-supply relationships ......... 247
tintberOnOwthccaesecions cane. cekes 231, 245-246
timbeninventonyencsccmcs oe enlace 218, 228, 246
timber montalityecry cts ci er1s clots 231, 245-246
timberaremovals) Susser scitcectos oe ore cece 235
timber SUppliessn) tees sieve eco aie css 218, 247
vegetativecover ...\. «14. 11-14, 158, 227, 265, 311
VENECIMORS Aten colo olayeyerctarcussclerecaeiesoueav 106-107, 224
VISIUOICEMUSTS cys rcracoietere es iso eosin etek: 74, 101, 104
Wwastel(watermpollutiom)ia. cs sissies sic e's xe > 138-139,
305-308, 314, 317

TAGS Hallie pee veeea ney teu cevensuetegecsl aes ate. oan 305

waste (water pollution) — continued Page

TTUATNAID GD o4evs Hea % lcs ratatcMctahesabiavawet sere) sle/-eretietect tate 139, 305
IWR ICIP all ea ssavecey. to obs voter e) olshclloroyeter she cverores 139, 305
OC E Tye eso) eae rer oh taraleroderal det ooevekoneinvs 139, 267, 305
WASteLPaPent ars: .llarstarcearer toheretsr che: s1 otol eleyetenaielotainers “« 267
Watena©neaS i cistewrcc ssielelarsiene See xi, 24, 30, 35, 44
WATE Tew ca tanciesietetotetay anata ies suoletana Gladene oct std ouanauete 273-318
CONSUMPLIVE: USCA.) ./0)s ee eicreieie evens 273, 276-286, 293
GOMESTICSUSEs spenedet avatars crohatateratsteterater svotetetnckem Se 276
PPO OGIO Hi aie: cvcwstieker sits shevenarsi abey exeronelate 296-301, 314
PISCE AMG USES 5.5) 021 scat ss'cner onal sh laviandr orayeveters ocean 286
INGA A OMe crests. exes siereroxe) ap ebstatel's 274, 276, 284, 293
MV ESCOCK MUSE 2 5 cicks ates ai cree toner ouchedailslions i atete rte as 275
MANULACCUPING str iravern yes onc) vi steverere isto os 276, 284
Mineral PROCESSING sa <0 <i -noret act ore ceeke ee oie eevee 276
POllUtiON cee pohecs cee ete 302, 305-308, 314-316
public lands administration ................ 276
Steamselectric COOlING, ... ...).) 4 .veidiete 1s we 274, 284
SUP PLY onorlciens) shoviclcvieuss shar ecsnouer gravatoraataters 287-296
Water Resource Region projections ..... 291-293
vater demand-supply balances................ 291
water development opportunities.............. 310
GESALIN OI as Saccavcrcttl enc aetevesirn) deatavenalaua ne alcamedens 310
INtELOASIM CRAM SLOT 5) sie co ss er avcrelia) op suer ave ever ouenate 310
inrigationsloss reduction ...... ..)./.'. (ists sla 310
landimanagemient: «(5 ./.25./ys jets versa diets site iets 308
phreatophyte reduction............... 309, 314
pollutionscontrol (a). 364.56). ctiee yearns 305-308
precipitation modification.................. 310
DHICINGEMEChOMS is oi a)s ds: sieayaheie ciel jeyate Sete aneals 309
RECH CIM Bes 55,0 cinta elatad se! avansyid iicehsyetelats siieyss suede ebenotate 310
snowpack management ............... 310, 317
transmission control ...........eeee0- 309, 310
USESFEGUCHONG 6s sisce aie «wae tre Gio claceverheve 309, 310
vegetative cover Changes ....6/.) 25 s/c. 311-313
watershed management)... 1. '</s)cieneslavetersterels oe 310
Water PollUtiOmysc(s cic Welolenin crete ce crores eterore 305-308
agriculturalurnigation:. <1. .). 552). 9.14 tres fee's 305
agricultural cunolife 255 3)... is lelarter. Aste heel stele 305
COMSEGUCH OM 25228 aici iors eo falas clesmrotetotstarese: wreinter 305
INGUSETIAL WASTE) (01 s1ee lcs eilso wots oie 0: 04ete 305, 310
ITDUTINN GY verte eden etetect a tatieua’ slaves seein ah tele tat Betis lane 305
MUNICIPAl Waste’. ...:)5\. 0) 15 ieee wien ol 305, 310
nonpoint sources ............ 305, 315-316, 317
OtMerawasteracausivste-insscsie siete ose rel sae) cl sxnaye walls 305
POINEISOUTCES!s)3.h0 750.0) cere sre 010. 305, 314-315, 317
SECM ME HUMOLNL | oi5)61 225 ein sel steisciohe aiere els elem ene 305
Silviculture COivitieS) 2 a1 .tc.c6 corse. aleve cosas esc eic 305
water problems......... 290-294, 305-308, 316-318
Water QUANG ci a. ieneners a elsceievetm eters) are We savas 301-308

351

Page

Water QUANTI ass. c heh orawawena dees ... 290-296
WaLERRCSOUICE s 4.6.4 dps east eo nerae ns eum eiers 316-318
data GOMCCHOR igi ne o.h 4.5 ace coe teae 310, 316
information. Needs: 2.06.5 .040% ssc sow 273, 284
FECIONS «2 Sent okedaccsntaadsaakss comes 316-318
Water Resources Planning Act Regions........ 273
WATEDSOUTCE <5..56cs.c:stas cco diese sis tuele tyne batepogs 23.25
Water SUPPLY wicisn.isar aso ndinceee 273, 287-296
STOMNC WAleM ssa i5iaj5, ois 2%. 5 Se, Seda, gaye 284, 287-290
PRECIPIIALION «24.04 cue donne epee nee ens 287
SUMMACE WatleD =< +.<.¢:s,ci asia os oS a aera 287-289
water withdrawal demand............ 273-274, 276
GOMIESHIC. USE taiics di vraterenai a entree see eer 276
fiS MALCHETICS:..s.0.00-cckn nase oes Oe eae 286
IPMPANON 5655456000000 crsetnndacsesu tees 276
LIVESEOCK USE o.co.sisrencensig nraocne is he ahaa viahiees ZIS
ManUlAClUNING: 2 25:22. nate ae Raoees eens 276
Mune ta DrOCeSSING vsdiscis. os Paes aie een ee 276
public lands administration. .......66..4 .66«: 276
Steam electric COOlING 14.06 63 eee aeciiacese sc 276
Water Resource Region projections ..... 291-293
WATETIOWL Ss jane Gceison wrodyenmaei omas 124-126, 144
ASMANG 506554 tas suiare Metsecacartaie. cere teresa Selevenerer sas 124
GIStHDUTOMNE « vcaSaccinc a needa ae coerce {25
habitat CONMAIMIONS. «0,407.4, sees oe eels carats 141
HAT VESES: 1.6 sca seaisae.o aiaile aelelnte Sua lanae atelars etek 124-125
AURUNG sc s/ee ae die oe cace as aac se eS eS 123, 144
management Opportunities... 6 ses. cce deem ews 126
POPUlAHONS iiss ica weed anna oa cesses 124, 144

18 =) 16 (ee 125
western forest ecosystems afeaies:. a sc sciscie eons 46
WESIERI WHILE PING 6.00054 aces eevawtiweangees 46
Wel orasslandS.iitcadctoests tse, ncts 29-30, 35, 59
Wetlandsss fos kc sires one Aero eS 59, 136-137
white-red+jack pine [Orest scssssescaes saeeamliess 29
Wald and Scenic Rivers: Act sic ss «cw alte wits veel 88
Wild ‘RiVG6S «054-22 saxecse coheers saws 78, 88
Recreation Rivers «.ss.é.s0s,3.02 Sipe ROG ee eos eens 88
Scenic Rivers si. aus ens dase so Reais 78, 88

352

Wild and Scenic Rivers Act — continued Page

Wild Free-Roaming Horse and Burro Act ..... 166
Wild JROTSES -ios0%.4:0.4 a5s4. 5 spteneroes <haetereiens 166-167
WAIGETMESS) 55, 0A ke soon 9 ease aces sche etaege enna 63, 100-107
definition... ..< gtcaiei cas geqeaus eneeaeen een 100
GEMANG 46.503, 5, extra ses ade wie ure wateucar 103
Gesionation 2.2526 s = rig 3 Falnaesicneraivetioantome 100
MIANASCMIENN bios coe ees carats 100, 102, 105
National Wilderness Preservation
SWStEIN A187 G6a. 5 oes oes eesnue Nene 100-101
USES sec cerera irereyovenes ohtista: sana craze oto 100, 101, 104
Wilderness ACt ..06.62.6506.40 baceonnias tence 100, 104
WHI 5.0.00 aan son clen mtv cama 47, 109-152
demand) 6.2 Pf oti ead kiawowas 110-118, 115-117
endangered species..4: si.6.nceece. eae We
fish, Hishing:< 2263 ossoanaceaee 109-110, 112, 114,
120, 140, 145-148
fO0d SOUFCE, AS is 0% si endeaness daupad 113-114
TUPDEAFETS a5 3.52 cee se neces ouns 113; 12h tS
habitat wcsceese 109, 117, 123, 128, 134-136, 139
NUNUING. 66 204 cecte </s Sage eae 116, 122-127
management opportunities........ 109-110, 117,
133, 139-150, 151
nonconsumptive user characteristics......... 115
nonconsumptive uses............. 115, 127, 148
NONGAME BITS «os siescrs, sian Bw wre dw aratee nates 127
OWNETSIID. cave scot oir de eaaaemoes 109-110, 118
FELUSES fice a wamoqcnons wadereeetaiate 140, 144
research Opportunities #4 Tssann tenors 150-152
resource inventory: needs... 65.4520 devec. 151-152
resource management study needs.......... 109,
117, 139-150
SPOCIES 4-455 2065-540 os Meeps pee Sas 134-136
SUPPIWiniaesc aad bois a tees eee 119, 121-128
use, SUIVEY NCCOS 12202054545. a5 114, 127, 140
Waterfowl o.6 i550 Rste iad fasion tiece an ee roee 124, 144
Wood PUP sai sews cee othe Dey 206, 216, 226
WOLIG) 5.5 os.s cies oa ore were evcususeracrssahertee enone 218-220
TOTES: FESOULCES ses Facets ernie tee mire 218-220
timber supply potential « ..0.5...05ci60%% 216-217
timber trends. «54506 oa swears ce eee e 216-217
Bu.s. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1982-327°954/7278

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