z bs
aaa tity eT livre ! a
SS A a
‘wi - of &

‘ , a a ; ~~ 2 , ( ®

Ory eto ovk Ranepacrs Kose me aire
A weoy 2. OR MIG KTION. Of site le?
‘ - 2 f ayy

ae ORCAa ONS

AN ESSAY

ON THE

PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION;

OR,
A VIEW OF ITS PAST AND PRESENT EFFECTS

ON

HUMAN HAPPINESS;

WITH

AN INQUIRY INTO OUR PROSPECTS RESPECTING THE FUTURE
REMOVAL OR MITIGATION OF THE EVILS WHICH
IT OCCASIONS.

BY
Tue Rey. T. R. MALTHUS, A.M. F.R.S.

LATE FELLOW OF JESUS COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE, AND PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AND POLITICAL
ECONOMY IN THE EAST-INDIA COLLEGE, HERTFORDSHIRE.

| +
SIXTH EDITION.
IN TWO VOLUMES.

VOL. I.

LONDON :
JOHN MURRAY, ALBEMARLE STREET.

MDCCCXXVI.

LONDON:

PRINTED 3Y Ce ROWORTH, BELI. YARD,
TEMPLE BAR.

PREFACE

TO THE SECOND EDITION.

Tue Essay on the Principle of Population,
which I published in 1798, was suggested, as
is expressed in the preface, by a paper in
Mr. Godwin’s Inquirer. It was written on
the impulse of the occasion, and from the
few materials which were then within my
reach in a country situation. ‘The only au-
thors from whose writings I had deduced the
principle, which formed the main argument
of the Essay, were Hume, Wallace, Adam
Smith, and Dr. Price; and my object was to
apply it, to try the truth of those speculations
on the perfectibility of man and society,
which at that time excited a considerable
portion of the public attention.

In the course of the discussion I was natu-
rally led into some examination of the effects

a 2

lv PREFACE TO THE

of this principle on the existing state of so-
ciety. It appeared to account for much of
that poverty and misery observable among
the lower classes of people in every nation,
and for those reiterated failures in the efforts
of the higher classes to relieve them. The
more I considered the subject in this point
of view, the more importance it seemed to
acquire; and this consideration, joined to the
degree of public attention which the Essay
excited, determined me to turn my leisure
reading towards an historical examination of
the effects of the principle of population on
the past and present state of society ; that,
by illustrating the subject more generally, and
drawing those inferences from it, in applica-
tion to the actual state of things, which
experience seemed to warrant, I might give
it a more practical and permanent interest.
In the course of this inquiry I found that
much more had been done than I had been
aware of, when I first published the Essay.
The poverty and misery arising from a too
rapid increase of population had been dis-
tinctly seen, and the most violent remedies
proposed, so long ago as the times of Plato
and Aristotle. And of late years the subject

SECOND EDITION. Vv

has been treated in such a manner by some
of the French Economists, occasionally by
Montesquieu, and, among our own writers,
by Dr. Franklin, Sir James Stewart, Mr.
Arthur Young, and Mr. Townsend, astocreate
a natural surprise that it had not excited more
of the public attention.

Much, however, remained yet to be done.
Independently of the comparison between the
increase of population and food, which had
not perhaps been stated with sufficient force
and precision, some of the most curious and
interesting parts of the subject had been
either wholly omitted or treated very slightly.
Though it had been stated distinctly, that
population must always be kept down to the
level of the means of subsistence; yet few in-
quiries had been made into the various modes
by which this level is effected; and the prin-
ciple had never been sufficiently pursued to its
consequences, nor had those practical infe-
rences drawn from it, which a strict exami-
nation of its effects on society appears to sug-
gest.

These therefore are the points which I have
treated most in detail in the following Essay.
In its present shape it may be considered as a

vi PREFACE TO THE

new work, and I should probably have pub-
lished it as such, omitting the few parts of the
former which I have retained, but that I wished
it to form a whole of itself, and not to need a
continual reference to the other. On this
account I trust that no apology is necessary
to the purchasers of the first edition.

T’o those who either understood the subject
before, or saw it distinctly on the perusal of
the first edition, I am fearful that I shall ap-
pear to have treated some parts of it too much
in detail, and to have been guilty of unneces-
sary repetitions. These faults have arisen
partly from want of skill, and partly from
intention. In drawing similar inferences from
the state of society in a number of different
countries, I found it very difficult to avoid
some repetitions; and in those parts of the
inquiry which led to conclusions different from
our usual habits of thinking, it appeared to
me that, with the slightest hope of producing
conviction, it was necessary to present them
to the reader’s mind at different times, and
on different occasions. I was willing to sa-
crifice all pretensions to merit of composition,
to the chance of making an impression on a
larger class of readers.

SECOND EDITION. Vii

The main principle advanced is so incon-
trovertible, that, if I had confined myself
merely to general views, I could have in-
trenched myself in an impregnable fortress;
and the work, in this form, would probably
have had a much more masterly air. But
such general views, though they may advance
the cause of abstract truth, rarely tend to
promote any practical good; and I thought
that I should not do justice to the subject,
and bring it fairly under discussion, if I re-
fused to consider any of the consequences
which appeared necessarily to flow from it,
whatever these consequences might be. By
pursuing this plan, however, I am aware that
I have opened a door to many objections,
and, probably, to much severity of criticism:
but I console myself with the reflection, that
even the errors into which I may have fallen,
by affording a handle to argument, and an
additional excitement to examination, may
be subservient to the important end of bring-
ing a subject so nearly connected with the
happiness of society into more general no-
tice.

Throughout the whole of the present work
I_ have so far differed in principle from the

vill PREFACE TO THE

former, as to suppose the action of another
check to population which does not come
under the head either of vice or misery; and,
in the latter part I have endeavoured to soften
some of the harshest conclusions of the first
Essay. In doing this, I hope that I have not
violated the principles of just reasoning; nor
expressed any opinion respecting the probable
improvement of society, in which I am not
borne out by the experience of the past. To
those who still think that any check to popu-
lation whatever would be worse than the evils
which it would relieve, the conclusions of the
former Essay will remain in full force; and if
we adopt this opinion we shall be compelled
to acknowledge, that the poverty and misery
which prevail among the lower classes of so-
ciety are absolutely irremediable.

I have taken as much pains as I could to
avoid any errors in the facts and calculations
which have been produced in the course of
the work. Should any of them nevertheless
turn out -to be false, the reader will see that
they will not materially affect the general
scope of the reasoning.

From the crowd of materials which pre-
sented themselves, in illustration of the first

SECOND EDITION. 1x

branch of the subject, I dare not flatter myself
that I have selected the best, or arranged them
in the most perspicuous method. 'To those
who take an interest in moral and political
questions, I hope that the novelty and im-
portance of the subject will compensate the
imperfections of its execution.

London, June 8, 1803.

PREFACE

TO THE FIFTH EDITION.

Tus Essay was first published at a period
of extensive warfare, combined, from peculiar
circumstances, with a most prosperous foreign
commerce.

It came before the public, therefore, at a
time when there would be an extraordinary
demand for men, and very little disposition to
suppose the possibility of any evil arising from
the redundancy of population. Its success,
under these disadvantages, was greater than
could have been reasonably expected; and
it may be presumed that it will not lose its
interest, after a period of a different descrip-
tion has succeeded, which has in the most
marked manner illustrated its principles, and
confirmed its conclusions.

On account, therefore, of the nature of the

Xli PREFACE TO THE

subject, which it must be allowed is one of
permanent interest, as well as of the attention

likely to be directed to it in future, I am bound ©
to correct those errors of my work, of which

subsequent experience and information may

have convinced me, and to make such addi-

tions and alterations as appear calculated to

improve it, and promote its utility.

It would have been easy to have added
many further historical illustrations of the
first part of the subject ; but as I was unable
to supply the want I once alluded to, of ac-
counts of sufficient accuracy to ascertain what
part of the natural power of increase each
particular check destroys, it appeared to me
that the conclusion which I had before drawn
from very ample evidence of the only kind
that could be obtained, would hardly receive
much additional force by the accumulation
of more, precisely of the same description.

In the two first books, therefore, the only
additions are a new chapter on France, and
one on England, chiefly in reference to facts
which have occurred since the publication of
‘the last edition.

In the third book I have given an additional

FIFTH EDITION. xill

chapter on the Poor-Laws ; and as it appeared
to me that the chapters on the Agricultural
and Commercial Systems, and the Effects of
increasing Wealth on the Poor, were not either
so well arranged, or so immediately applicable
to the main subject, as they ought to be; and
as I further wished to make some alterations
in the chapter on Bounties upon Exportation,
and add something on the subject of Re-
strictions upon Importation, I have recast and
rewritten the chapters which stand the 8th,
Oth, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, in the present
edition; and given a new title, and added two
or three passages, to the 14th and last chapter
of the same book.

In the fourth book I have added a new
chapter to the one entitled Effects of the
Knowledge of the principal Cause of Poverty
on Civil Liberty ; and another to the chapter
on the Different Plans of improving the Poor ;
and I have made a considerable addition to
the Appendix, in reply to some writers on the
Principles of Population, whose works have
appeared since the last edition.

These are the principal additions and altera-
tions made in the present edition. They

XIV. PREFACE TO THE FIFTH EDITION.

consist, in a considerable degree, of the ap-
plication of the general principles of the Essay
to the present state of things.

For the accommodation of the purchasers
of the former editions, these additions and
alterations will be published in a separate
volume.

Kast-India College,
June 7th, 1817.

ADVERTISEMENT

TO THE SIXTH EDITION.
Jan. 2d, 1826.

—f>—

Tue additions to the present edition chiefly
consist of some further documents and infe-
rences relating to the state of the population
in those countries, in which fresh enumera-
tions, and registers of births, deaths and mar-
riages, have appeared since the publication of
my last edition in 1817. They refer princi-
pally to England, France, Sweden, Russia,
Prussia, and America, and will be found in the
chapters which treat of the population of
these countries. In the chapter on the Fruit-
fulness of Marriages an additional table has
been given, (vol. i. p. 498.) which, from the
per centage increase of population in the in-
terval between those decennial enumerations
which are now taking place in some countries,
shews the period of their doubling, or the rate
at which they are increasing. At the end of

xvi ADVERTISEMENT.

the Appendix my reasons for not replying to
the late publication of Mr. Godwin are shortly
stated. In other parts of the work some in-
considerable alterations and corrections have
been made. which it is unnecessary to specify ;
and a few notes have been added, the prin-
cipal of which is one on the variations in the
price of corn in Holland under a free trade,
and the error of supposing that the scarcity
of one country is generally counterbalanced
by the plenty of some other.—Vol. 11. p. 207.

CONTENTS

OF

THE FIRST VOLUME.

BOOK I.

OF THE CHECKS TO POPULATION IN THE LESS CIVILIZED
PARTS OF THE WORLD AND IN PAST TIMES.

Cuap. Page

I. Statement of the Subject. Ratios of the In-
crease of Population and Food. . . . 1

II. Of the general Checks to Population, and the
Mode of their Operation. . . 17

III. Of the Checks to Population in dic Tawest
Stage of Human Society. . . . $¥25

IV. Of the Checks to Population among die Anes
rican Indians. . . 35

V. Of the Checks to Papuliion a in athe Iolani of
the SouthSea. . . . 66

VI. Of the Checks to Bonala@an among the. an-
cient Inhabitants of the North of Europe. . 92
VII. Of the Checks to 5 sah an among modern

Pastoral Nations. . . . 120
VIII. Of the Checks to Population in different Parts
OL Abie |." . 144

IX. Of the Checks to {Popilesou in iv Siberia)
Northern and Southern. . . . . . . 165

XVlll

CuHap.
X.

XI.

XIi.

XIII.

XIV.

OF THE CHECKS TO POPULATION

CHAP.
1B

Il.
III.
IV.

Va
VI.
VIE.

Vill.
IX.

X.

XIII.

CONTENTS.

Of the Checks to Population in the Turkish
. 180

Dominions and Persia.
Of the Checks to ge in Taudcutag sad
Tibet. . :
Of the Checks to Population in Wena Sed
Japan. .
Of the Checks to Fe hana, among ibe Gatien
Of the Checks to Population among the Ro-
mans. .

BOOK II.

STATES OF MODERN EUROPE.

Of the Checks to Population in Norway.

Of the Checks to Population in Sweden. .

Of the Checks to Population in Russia.

Of the Checks to Population in the middle
Parts of Europe. ;

Of the Checks to Populations in ‘Switderldad.

Of the Checks to Population in France.

Of the Checks to Population in France (con-
tinued).

Of the Checks t to Pdpalatiow i in > Baglend:

Of the Checks to Population in England (con-
tinued).

Of the Chedks> to Pipelation 4 in Scotland ai
Ireland. :

. On the Fruitfulness of Martiages:
. Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Births,

Deaths and Marriages.

General Deductions from the piceedilt View
of Society. . 2.

Page

. 190

- 206

931

. 243

IN THE DIFFERENT

Page

. 259
Se wd
- 299

- 499

. 514

BOOK I.

OF THE CHECKS TO POPULATION IN THE LESS
CIVILIZED PARTS OF THE WORLD AND
IN PAST TIMES.

oe

CHAP. I.

Statement of the Subject. Ratios of the Increase of
Population and Food.

Ty an inquiry concerning the improvement of
society, the mode of conducting the subject which
naturally presents itself, is,

1. To investigate the causes that have hitherto
impeded the progress of mankind towards happi-
ness; and,

2. To examine the probability of the total or
partial removal of these causes in future.

To enter fully into this question, and to enume-
rate all the causes that have hitherto influenced
human improvement, would be much beyond the
power of an individual. The principal object of

VOL. I. B

2 Statement of the Subject. Ratios of Bk. 1.

the present essay is to examine the effects of one
great cause intimately united with the very nature
of man; which, though it has been constantly and
powerfully operating since the commencement of
society, has been little noticed by the writers who
have treated this subject. The facts which esta-
blish the existence of this cause have, indeed, been
repeatedly stated and acknowledged; but its
natural and necessary effects have been almost.
totally overlooked ; though probably among these
effects may be reckoned a very considerable por-
tion of that vice and misery, and of that unequal
distribution of the bounties of nature, which it has
been the unceasing object of the enlightened phi-
lanthropist in all ages to correct.

The cause to which I allude, is the constant
tendency in all animated life to increase beyond
the nourishment prepared for it.

It is observed by Dr. Franklin, that there is no
bound to the prolific nature of plants or animals,
but what is made by their crowding and interfering
with each other’s means of subsistence. Were
the face of the earth, he says, vacant of other
plants, it might be gradually sowed and overspread
with one kind only, as for instance with fennel:
and were it empty of other inhabitants, it might
in a few ages be replenished from one nation only,
as for instance with Englishmen.*

This is incontrovertibly true. Through the
animal and vegetable kingdoms Nature has scat-
tered the seeds of life abroad with the most pro-

* Franklin’s Miscell. p. 9.

Ch. i. the Increase of Population and Food. 3

fuse and liberal hand; but has been comparatively
sparing in the room and the nourishment necessary
to rear them. The germs of existence contained
in this earth, if they could freely develope them-
selves, would fill millions of worlds in the course
of a few thousand years. Necessity, that impe-
rious, all-pervading law of nature, restrains them
within the prescribed bounds. The race of plants
and the race of animals shrink under this great
restrictive law; and man cannot by any efforts of
reason escape from it.

In plants and irrational animals, the view of the
subject is simple. They are all impelled by a
powerful instinct to the increase of their species ;
and this instinct is interrupted by no doubts about
providing for their offspring. Wherever therefore
there is liberty, the power of increase is exerted ;
and the superabundant effects are repressed after-
wards by want of room and nourishment.

The effects of this check on man are more com-
plicated. Impelled to the increase of his species
by an equally powerful instinct, reason interrupts
_ his career, and asks him whether he may not bring
beings into the world, for whom he cannot provide
the means of support. If he attend to this natural
suggestion, the restriction too frequently produces
vice. If he hear it not, the human race will be
constantly endeavouring to increase beyond the
means of subsistence. But as, by that law of our
nature which makes food necessary to the life of
man, population can never actually increase be-
yond the lowest nourishment capable of supporting

B2

4 Statement of the Subject. Ratios of Bk. 1.

it, a strong check on population, from the difficulty
of acquiring food, must be constantly in operation.
This difficulty must fall somewhere, and must
necessarily be severely felt in some or other of the
various forms of misery, or the fear of misery, by
a Jarge portion of mankind.

That population has this constant tendency to
increase beyond the means of subsistence, and that
it is kept to its necessary level by these causes,
will sufficiently appear from a review of the dif-
ferent states of society in which man has existed.
But, before we proceed to this review, the subject
will, perhaps, be seen in a clearer light, if we
endeavour to ascertain what would be the natural
increase of population, if left to exert itself with
perfect freedom ; and what might be expected to
be the rate of increase in the productions of the
earth, under the most favourable circumstances of
human industry.

It will be allowed that no country has hitherto
been known, where the manners were so pure and
simple, and the means of subsistence so abundant,
that no check whatever has existed to early mar-
riages from the difficulty of providing for a family,
and that no waste of the human species has been
occasioned by vicious customs, by towns, by un-
healthy occupations, or too severe labour. Con-
sequently in no state that we have yet known,
has the power of population been left to exert
itself with perfect freedom.

Whether the law of marriage be instituted, or
not, the dictate of nature and virtue seems to be

Ch. i. the Increase of Population and Food. 5

an early attachment to one woman; and where
there were no impediments of any kind in the way
of an union to which such an attachment would
lead, and no causes of depopulation afterwards,
the increase of the human species would be evi-
dently much greater than any increase which has
been hitherto known.

In the northern states of America, where the
means of subsistence have been more ample, the
manners of the people-more pure, and the checks
to early marriages fewer, than in any of the mo-
dern states of Europe, the population has been
found to double itself, for above a century and
a half successively, in less than twenty-five years.*
Yet, even during these periods, in some of the
towns, the deaths exceeded the births,t} a circum-
stance which clearly proves that, in those parts
of the country which supplied this deficiency, the
increase must have been much more rapid than
the general average.

In the back settlements, where the sole em-
ployment is agriculture, and vicious customs and
unwholesome occupations are little known, the
population has been found to double itself in fif-
teen years.{ Even this extraordinary rate of in-
crease is probably short of the utmost power of

* Jt appears, from some recent calculations and estimates, that
from the first settlement of America, to the year 1800, the periods
of doubling have been but very little above twenty years. See
a note on the increase of American population in Book ii. chap. xi.

+ Price's Observ. on Revers. Pay. vol. i. p. 274. 4th edit.

{ Id. p. 282.

6 Statement of the Subject. Ratios of Bk. 1.

population. Very severe labour is requisite to
clear a fresh country; such situations are not in
general considered as particularly healthy; and
the inhabitants, probably, are occasionally subject
to the incursions of the Indians, which may de-
stroy some lives, or at any rate diminish the fruits
of mdustry.

According to a table of Euler, calculated on
a mortality of 1 in 36, if the births be to the
deaths in the proportion of 3 to !, the period of
doubling will be only 12 years and 4-5ths.* And
this proportion is not only a possible supposition,
but has actually occurred for short periods in
more countries than one.

Sir William Petty supposes a doubling possible
in so short a time as ten years.f

But, to be perfectly sure that we are far within
the truth, we will take the slowest of these rates
of increase, a rate in which all concurring testi-
monies agree, and which has been repeatedly
ascertained to be from procreation only.

It may safely be pronounced, therefore, that
population, when unchecked, goes on doubling
itself every twenty-five years, or increases in
a geometrical ratio.

The rate according to which the productions of
the earth may be supposed to increase, it will not
be so’ easy to determine. Of this, however, we
may be perfectly certain, that the ratio of their

* See this table at the end of chap. iv. book ii.
+ Polit. Arith. p. 14.

Ch. i. the Increase of Population and Food. 7

increase in a limited territory must be of a totally
different nature from the ratio of the increase of
population. A thousand millions are just as
easily doubled every twenty-five years by the
power of population as a thousand. But the food
to support the increase from the greater number
will by no means be obtained with the same faci-
lity. Man is necessarily confined in room. When
acre has been added to acre till all the fertile land
is occupied, the yearly increase of food must
depend upen the melioration of the land already
in possession. This is a fund, which, from the
nature of all soils, instead of increasing, must be
eradually diminishing. But population, could it
be supplied with food, would go on with unex-
hausted vigour; and the increase of one period
would furnish the power of a greater increase the
next, and this without any limit.

From the accounts we have of China and Japan,
it may be fairly doubted, whether the best-di-
rected efforts of human industry could double the
produce of these countries even once in any num-
ber of years. There are many parts of the globe,
indeed, hitherto uncultivated, and almost unoc-
cupied; but the right of exterminating, or driving
into a corner where they must starve, even the
inhabitants of these thinly-peopled regions, will
be questioned in a moral view. The process of
improving their minds and directing their industry
would necessarily be slow; and during this time,
as population would regularly keep pace with the
increasing produce, it would rarely happen that
a great degree of knowledge and industry would

8 Statement of the Subject. Ratios of Bk. 1.

have to operate at once upon rich unappropriated
soil. Even where this might take place, as it
does sometimes in new colonies, a geometrical
ratio increases with such extraordinary rapidity,
that the advantage could not last long. Ifthe
United States of America continue increasing,
which they certainly will do, though not with the
same rapidity as formerly, the Indians will be
driven further and further back into the country,
till the whole race is ultimately exterminated,
and the territory is incapable of further extension.

These observations are, in a degree, applicable
to all the parts of the earth, where the soil is im-
perfectly cultivated. To exterminate the inha-
bitants of the greatest part of Asia and Africa, is
a thought that could not be admitted for a mo-
ment. To civilise. and direct the industry of the
various tribes of Tartars and Negroes, would cer-
tainly be a work of considerable time, and of
variable and uncertain success.

Europe is by no means so fully peopled as it
might be. In Europe there is the fairest chance
that human industry may receive its best direc-
tion. The science of agriculture has been much
studied in England and Scotland; and there is
still a great portion of uncultivated land in these
countries. Let us consider at what rate the pro-
duce of this island might be supposed to increase
under circumstances the most favourable to im-
provement.

If it be allowed that by the eck possible policy,
and great encouragements to agriculture, the

Ch.i. the Increase of Population and Food. 9

average produce of the island could be doubled
in the first twenty-five years, it will be allowing,
probably, a greater increase than could with rea-
son be expected.

In the next twenty-five years, it is impossible
to suppose that the produce could be quadrupled.
It would be contrary to all our knowledge of the
properties of land. The improvement of the
barren parts would be a work of time and labour;
and it must be evident to those who have the
slightest acquaintance with agricultural subjects,
that in proportion as cultivation extended, the
additions that could yearly be made to the former
average produce must be gradually and regularly
diminishing. That we may be the better able to
compare the increase of population and food, let
us make a supposition, which, without pretending
to accuracy, is clearly more favourable to the
power of production in the earth, than any expe-
rience we have had of its qualities will warrant.

Let us suppose that the yearly additions which
might be made to the former average produce,
instead of decreasing, which they certainly would
do, were to remain the same; and that the pro-
duce of this island might be increased every
twenty-five years, by a quantity equal to what it
at present produces. The most enthusiastic spe-
culator cannot suppose a greater increase than
this. -In a few centuries it would make every
acre of land in the island like a garden.

If this supposition be applied to the whole
earth, and if it be allowed that the subsistence for

*

10 Statement of the Subject. Ratios of Bk.1.

man which the earth affords might be increased
every twenty-five years by a quantity equal to
what it at present produces, this will be supposing
a rate of increase much greater than we can ima-
gine that any possible exertions of mankind could
make it.

It may be fairly pronounced, therefore, that,
considering the present average state of the earth,
the means of subsistence, under circumstances
the most favourable to human industry, could not
possibly be made to increase faster than in an
arithmetical ratio.

The necessary effects of these two different
- rates of increase, when brought together, will be
very striking. Let us call the population of this
island eleven millions; and suppose the present
produce equal to the easy support of such a num-
ber. In the first twenty-five years the population
would be twenty-two millions, and the food being
also doubled, the means of subsistence would be
equal to this increase. In the next twenty-five
years, the population would be forty-four millions,
and the means of subsistence only equal to the
support of thirty-three millions. In the next pe-
riod the population would be eighty-eight millions,
and the means of subsistence just equal to the
support of half that number. And, at the con-
clusion of the first century, the population would
be a hundred and seventy-six millions, and the
means of subsistence only equal to the support of
fifty-five millions, leaving a population of a hun-

dred and twenty-one millions totally unprovided
for.

Ch.i. the Increase of Population and Food. 11

Taking the whole earth, instead of this island,
emigration would of course be excluded; and,
supposing the present population equal to a thou-
sand millions, the human species would increase
as the numbers, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256,
and subsistence as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6, 7, 8,9. Intwo
centuries the population would be to the means
of subsistence as 256 to 9; in three centuries as
A096 to 13, and in two thousand years the dif-
ference would be almost incalculable.

In this supposition no limits whatever are
placed to the produce of the earth. It may in-
crease for ever and be greater than any assignable
quantity; yet still the power of population being
in every period so much superior, the imcrease of
the human species can only be kept down to the
level of the means of subsistence by the constant
operation of the strong law of necessity, acting as
a check upon the greater power.

(tall 26) Bk. i.

MELA EL

ed the general Checks to Population, and the Mode of
their Operation.

‘Tue ultimate check to population appears then
to be a want of food, arising necessarily from the
different ratios according to which population and
food increase. But this ultimate check is never
the immediate check, except in cases of actual
famine.

The immediate check may be stated to consist
in all those customs, and all those diseases, which
seem to be generated by a scarcity of the means
of subsistence; and all those causes, independent
of this scarcity, whether of a moral or physical
nature, which tend prematurely to weaken and
destroy the human frame.

These checks to population, which are con-
stantly operating with more or less force in every
society, and keep down the number to the level
of the means of subsistence, may be classed under
two general heads—the preventive, and the posi-
tive checks.

The preventive check, as far as it is voluntary,
is peculiar to man, and arises from that distinctive
superiority in his reasoning faculties, which ena-
bles him to calculate distant consequences. The
checks to the indefinite increase of plants and

Ch. ii. Of the general Checks to Population, &c. 13

irrational animals are all either positive, or, if pre-
ventive, involuntary. But man cannot look around
him, and see the distress which frequently presses
upon those who have large families; he cannot
contemplate his present possessions or earnings,
which he now nearly consumes himself, and cal-
culate the amount of each share, when with very
little addition they must be divided, perhaps,
among seven or eight, without feeling a doubt
whether, if he follow the bent of his inclinations,
he may be able to support the offspring which he
will probably bring into the world. Ina state of
equality, if such can exist, this would be the
simple question. In the present state of society
other considerations occur. Will he not lower his
rank in life, and be obliged to give up in great
measure his former habits? Does any mode of
employment present itself by which he may rea-
sonably hope to maintain a family? Will he not
at any rate subject himself to greater difficulties,
and more severe labour, than in his single state?
Will he not be unable to transmit to his children
the same advantages of education and improve-
ment that he had himself possessed? Does he
even feel secure that, should he have a large
family, his utmost exertions can save them from
rags and squalid poverty, and their consequent
degradation in the community? And may he not
be reduced to the grating necessity of forfeiting
his independence, and of being obliged to the
sparing hand of Charity for support ?

These considerations are calculated to prevent,

14 | Of the general Checks to Population, Bk. i.

and certainly do prevent, a great number of per-
sons in all civilized nations from pursuing the dic-
tate of nature in an early attachment to one
woman.

If this restraint do not produce vice, it is un-
doubtedly the least evil that can arise from the
principle of population. Considered as a restraint
on a strong natural inclination, it must be allowed
to produce a certain degree of temporary unhap-
piness; but evidently slight, compared with the
evils which result from any of the other checks to
population; and merely of the same nature as
many other sacrifices of temporary to permanent
gratification, which it is the business of a moral
agent continually to make.

When this restraint produces vice, the evils
which follow are but too conspicuous. A promis-
cuous intercourse to such a degree as to prevent
the birth of children, seems to lower, in the most
marked manner, the dignity of human nature. It
cannot be without its effect on men, and nothing
can be more obvious than its tendency to degrade
the female character, and to destroy all its most
amiable and distinguishing characteristics. Add
to which, that among those unfortunate females,
with which all great towns abound, more real
distress and aggravated misery are, perhaps, to be
found, than in any other department of human life.

When a general corruption of morals, with
regard to the sex, pervades all the classes of so-
ciety, its effects must necessarily be, to poison
the springs of domestic happiness, to weaken con-

Ch. ii. and the Mode of their Operation. 15

jugal and parental affection, and to lessen the
united exertions and ardour of parents in the care
and education of their children ;—effects which
cannot take place without a decided diminution
of the general happiness and virtue of the society ;
particularly as the necessity of art in the accom-
plishment and conduct of intrigues, and in the
concealment of their consequences necessarily
leads to many other vices.

The positive checks to population are extremely
various, and include every cause, whether arising
from vice or misery, which in any degree contri-
butes to shorten the natural duration of human
life. Under this head, therefore, may be enu-
merated all unwholesome occupations, severe
labour and exposure to the seasons, extreme
poverty, bad nursing of children, great towns,
excesses of all kinds, the whole train of common
diseases and epidemics, wars, plague, and famine.

On examining these obstacles to the increase of
population which I have classed under the heads
of preventive and positive checks, it will appear
that they are all resolvable into moral restraint,
vice, and misery.

Of the preventive checks, the restraint from
marriage which is not followed by irregular grati-
fications may properly be termed moral restraint.*

* It will be observed, that I here use the term moral in its most
confined sense. By moral restraint I would be understood to mean
a restraint from marriage, from prudential motives, with a conduct
strictly moral during the period of this restraint ; and I have never
intentionally deviated from this sense. When I have wished to

16 Of the general Checks to Population, Bk. i.

Promiscuous intercourse, unnatural passions,
violations of the marriage bed, and improper arts
to conceal the consequences of irregular con-
nexions, are preventive checks that clearly come
under the head of vice.

Of the positive checks, those which appear to
arise unavoidably from the laws of nature, may
be called exclusively misery; and those which
we obviously bring upon ourselves, such as wars,
excesses, and many others which it would be in
our power to avoid, are of a mixed nature. They
are brought upon us by vice, and their conse-
quences are misery.*

consider the restraint from marriage unconnected with its conse-
quences, I have either called it prudential restraint, or a part of
the preventive check, of which indeed it forms the principal branch.

In my review of the different stages of society, I have been
accused of not allowing sufficient weight in the prevention of popu-
lation to moral restraint; but when the confined sense of the
term, which I have here explained, is adverted to, I am fearful that
I shall not be found to have erred much in this respect. I should
be very glad to believe myself mistaken.

* As the general consequence of vice is misery, and as this con-
sequence is the precise reason why an action is termed vicious, it
may appear that the term misery alone would be here sufficient,
and that it is superfluous to use both. But the rejection of the
term vice would introduce a considerable confusion into our lan-
guage and ideas. We want it particularly to distinguish those
actions, the general tendency of which is to produce misery, and
which are therefore prohibited by the commands of the Creator,
and the precepts of the moralist, although, in their immediate or
individual effects, they may produce perhaps exactly the contrary.
The gratification of all our passions in its immediate effect is hap-
piness, not misery ; and, in individual instances, even the remote
consequences (at least in this life) may possibly come under the

Ch. i. and ithe Mode of their Operation. 17

The sum of all these preventive and positive
checks, taken together, forms the immediate
check to population; and it is evident that, in
every country where the whole of the procreative
power cannot be called into action, the preventive
and the positive checks must vary inversely as
each other; that is, in countries either naturally
unhealthy, or subject to a great mortality, from
whatever cause it may arise, the preventive check
will prevail very little. In those countries, on
the contrary, which are naturally healthy, and
where the preventive check is found to prevail
with considerable force, the positive check will
prevail very little, or the mortality be very small.

In every country some of these checks are,
with more or less force, in constant operation; yet,
notwithstanding their general prevalence, there
are few states in which there is not a constant ef-
fort in the population to increase beyond the means
of subsistence. This constant effort as constantly
tends to subject the lower classes of society to dis-
tress, and to prevent any great permanent melio-
ration of their condition.

same denomination. There may have been some irregular con-
mexions with women, which have added to the happiness of both
parties, and have injured no one. These individual actions, there-
fore, cannot come under the head of misery. But they are still
evidently vicious, because an action is so denominated, which vio-
lates an express precept, founded upon its general tendency to
produce misery, whatever may be its individual effect ; and no
person can doubt the general tendency of an illicit intercuorse
between the sexes, to injure the happiness of society-

VOL. I. Cc

18 Of the general Checks to Population, Bk. i.

These effects, in the present state of society,
seem to be produced in the following manner. We
will suppose the means of subsistence in any coun-
try just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants.
The constant effort towards population, which is
found to act even in the most vicious societies, in-
creases the number of people before the means of
subsistence are increased. The food, therefore,
which before supported eleven millions, must now
be divided among eleven millions and a half.
The poor consequently must live much worse, and
many of them be reduced to severe distress. The
number of labourers also being above the propor-
tionof work in the market, the price of labour must
tend to fall, while the price of provisions would at
the same time tend torise. The labourer therefore
must do more work, to earn the same as he did
before. During this season of distress, the discou-
ragements to marriage and the difficulty of rearing
a family are so great, that the progress of popula-
tion is retarded. In the mean time, the cheapness
of labour, the plenty of labourers, and the necessity
of an increased industry among them, encourage
cultivators to employ more labour upon their land,
to turn up fresh soil, and to manure and improve
more completely what is already in tillage, till ul-
timately the means of subsistence may become in
the same proportion to the population, as at the
period from which we set out. The situation of
the labourer being then again tolerably comfort-
able, the restraints to populationare in some degree
loosened; and, after a short period, the same re-

Ch, ii. and the Mode of their Operation. 19

trograde and progressive movements, with respect
to happiness, are repeated.

_ This sort of oscillation will not probably be ob-
vious to common view; and it may be difficult even
for the most attentive observer to calculate its
periods. Yet that, in the generality of old states,
some alternation of this kind does exist though in
a much less marked, and in a much more irregular
manner, than I have described it, no reflecting
man, who considers the subject deeply, can well

doubt.
One principal reason why this oscillation has

been less remarked, and less decidedly confirmed
by experience than might naturally be expected,
is, that the histories of mankind which we possess
are, in general, histories only of the higher classes.
We have not many accounts that can be depended
upon, of the manners and customs of that part of
mankind, where these retrograde and progressive
movements chiefly take place. A satisfactory
history of this kind, of one people and of one pe-
riod, would require the constant and minute at-
tention of many observing minds in local and ge-
neral remarks on the state of the lower classes of
society, and the causes that influenced it; and, to
draw accurate inferences upon this subject, a suc-
cession of such historians for some centuries would
be necessary. This branch of statistical know-
ledge has, of late years, been attended to in some
countries,* and we may promise ourselves a

* The judicious questions which Sir John Sinclair circulated
in Scotland, and the valuable accounts which he has collected in

eee

20 Ofthe general Checks to Population, Bk. i.

clearer insight into the internal structure of human
society from the progress of these inquiries. But
the science may be said yet to be in its infancy,
and many of the objects, on which it would be
desirable to have information, have beeneithe r
omitted or not stated with sufficient accuracy.
Among these, perhaps, may be reckoned the pro-
portion of the number of adults to the number of
“marriages; the extent to which vicious customs
-have prevailed in consequence of the restraints
upon matrimony; the comparative mortality
“among the children of the most distressed part of
‘the community, and of those who live rather more
‘at their ease; the variations in the real price of
‘labour; the observable differences in the state of
‘the lower classes of society, with respect to ease

that part of the island, do him the highest honour; and these ac-
counts will ever remain an extraordinary monument of the learning,
good sense, and general information of the clergy of Scotland. It
is to be regretted that the adjoining parishes are not put together
in the work, which would have assisted the memory both in at-
“taining and recollecting the state of particular districts. The re-
petitions and contradictory opinions which occur are not in my
opinion so objectionable; as, to the result of such testimony, more
_faith may be given than we could possibly give to the testimony
of any individual. Even were this result drawn for us by some
master hand, though much valuable time would undoubtedly be
saved, the information would not be so satisfactory. If, with a
- few subordinate improvements, this work had.contained accurate
and complete registers for the last 150 years, it would have been
inestimable, and would have exhibited a better picture of the in-
ternal state of a country than has yet been presented to the world.

But this last most essential improvement no diligence could have
effected.

Ch. ii. and the Mode of their Operation. 21

and happiness, at different times during a certain
period; and very accurate registers of births,
deaths, and marriages, which are of the utmost im-
portance in this subject.

A faithful history, including such particulars,
would tend greatly to elucidate the manner in
which the constant check upon population acts;
and would probable prove the existence of the
retrograde and progressive movements that have:
been mentioned; though the times of their vibra-
tion must necessarily be rendered irregular from
the operation of many interrupting causes; such
as, the introduction or failure of certain manufac-
tures; a greater or less prevalent spirit of agri-
cultural enterprise; years of plenty, or years of
scarcity; wars, sickly seasons, poor-laws, emi-
erations and other causes of a similar nature.

_ A circumstance which has, perhaps, more than
any other, contributed to conceal this oscillation
from common view, is the difference between the
nominal and real price of labour. It very rarely
happens that the nominal price of labour univer-
sally falls; but we well know that it frequently
remains the same, while the nominal price of pro-
visions has been gradually rising. This, indeed,
will generally be the case, if the increase of ma-
nufactures and commerce be sufficient to employ
the new labourers that are thrown into the mar-
ket, and to prevent the increased supply from,
lowering the money-price.* But an increased

* If the new labourers thrown yearly into the market should’

22 Of the general Checks to Population, Bk. i.

number of labourers receiving the same money-’
wages will necessarily, by their competition, in-
crease the money-price of corn. This is, in fact,
a real fall in the price of labour; and,. during this
period, the condition of the lower classes of the
community must be gradually growing worse.
But the farmers and capitalists are growing rich
from the real cheapness of labour. Their in-
creasing capitals enable them to employ a greater
number of men; and, as the population had pro-
bably suffered some check from the greater diffi-
culty of supporting a family, the demand for la-
bour, after a certain period, would be great in
proportion to the supply, and its price would of
course rise, if left to find its natural level; and
thus the wages of labour, and consequently the
condition of the lower classes of society, might
have progressive and retrograde movements,
though the price of labour might never nominally
fall.

In savage life, where there is no regular price
of labour, it is little to be doubted that similar
oscillations took place. When population has in-
ereased nearly to the utmost limits of the food, all
the preventive and the positive checks will natu-

find no employment but in agriculture, their competition might
so lower the money-price of labour, as to prevent the increase of
population from occasioning an effective demand for more corn;
or, in other words, if the landlords and farmers could get nothing
but an additional quantity of agricultural labour in exchange for

any additional produce which they could raise, they might not be
tempted to raise it.

Ch. ii. and the Mode of their Operation. 23

rally operate with increased force. Vicious habits
with respect to the sex will be more general, the
exposing of children more frequent, and both the
probability and fatality of wars and epidemics will
be considerably greater; and these causes will
probably continue their operation till the popula-
tion is sunk below the level of the food; and then
the return to comparative plenty will again pro-
duce an increase, and, after a certain period, its.
further progress will again be checked by the same
causes.*

But without attempting to establish these pro-
gressive and retrograde movements in different
countries, which would evidently require more
minute histories than we possess, and which the
progress of civilization naturally tends to counter-
act, the following propositions are intended to be
proved :—

1. Population is necessarily Hmited by the
means of subsistence.

2. Population invariably increases where the
means of subsistence increase, unless prevented
by some very powerful and obvious checks.f

* Sir James Stuart very justly compares the generative faculty
to a spring loaded with a variable weight, (Polit. Econ. vol. i.
b. i. c. 4. p. 20.) which would of course produce exactly that kind
of oscillation which has been mentioned. In the first book of his
Political Economy, he has explained many parts of the subject of
population very ably.

+ I have expressed myself in this cautious manner, because I
believe there are some instances, where population does not keep
up to the level of the means of subsistence. But these are extreme
cases; and, generally speaking, it might be said, that,

24 Of the general Checks to Population, Sc. Bk. 1.

3. These checks, and the checks which repress
the superior power of population, and keep its
effects on a level with the means of subsistence,
are all resolvable into moral restraint, vice and
misery.

The first of these propositions scarcely needs
illustration. The second and third will be suffi-
ciently established by a review of the immediate
checks to population in the past and present state
of society.

This review will be the subject of the following
chapters.

2. Population always increases where the means of subsistence
increase.

3. The checks which repress the superior power of population,
and keep its effects on a level with the means of subsistence, are
all resolvable into moral restraint, vice and misery.

It should be observed, that, by an increase in the means of sub-
sistence, is here meant such an increase as will enable the mass
of the society to command more food. An increase might certainly
take place, which in the actual state of a particular society would:
not be distributed to the lower classes, and consequently would give
no stimulus to population.

Gin ot)

CHAP. IIT.

Of the Checks to Population in the lowest Stage of TLuman
Society.

‘Tue wretched inhabitants of Tierra del Fuego
have been placed, by the general consent of voy-
agers, at the bottom of the scale of human beings.*.
Of their domestic habits and manners, however,
we have few accounts. Their barren country,
and the miserable state in which they live, have’
prevented any intercourse with them that might
give such information ; but we cannot be at a loss
to conceive the checks to population among a
race of savages, whose very appearance indicates;
them to be half starved, and who, shivering with
cold, and covered with filth and vermin, live in.
one of the most inhospitable climates in the world, ;
without having sagacity enough to provide them-
selves with such conveniencies as might mitigate;
its severities, and render life in some measure:
more comfortable.f

Next to these, and almost as low in genius and:
resources, have been placed the natives of Van,
Diemen’s land ;{ but some late accounts have re-

* Cook’s First Voy. vol. ii. p. 59.
+ Cook’s Second Voy. vol, ii. p. 187.

t Vancouver’s Voy. vol. ii. b. ili. c. i. p. 1S.

26 Of the Checks to Populationin the Bk. i.

presented the islands of Andaman in the East as
inhabited by a race of savages still lower in
wretchedness even than these. very thing that
voyagers have related of savage life is said to fall
short of the barbarism of this people. Their
whole time is spent in search of food: and as
their woods yield them few or no supplies of
animals, and but little vegetable diet, their prin-
cipal occupation is that of climbing the rocks, or
roving along the margin of the sea, in search of a
precarious meal of fish, which, during the tem-
pestuous season, they often seek for in vain.
Their stature seldom exceeds five feet; their
bellies are protuberant, with high shoulders, large
heads, and limbs disproportionably slender.
Their countenances exhibit the extreme of wretch-
edness, a horrid mixture of famine and ferocity ;
and their extenuated and diseased figures plainly
indicate the want of wholesome nourishment.
Some of these unhappy beings have been found
on the shores in the last stage of famine.*

In the next scale of human beings we may
place the inhabitants of New Holland, of a part
of whom we have some accounts that may be de-
pended upon, from a person who resided a con-
siderable time at Port Jackson, and had frequent
opportunities of being a witness to their habits
and manners. The narrator of Captain Cook’s
first voyage having mentioned the very small

* Symes’s Embassy to Ava, ch. i. p. 129, and Asiatic Researches,
vol. iv. p. 401.

Ch. iii. lowest Stage of Human Society. 27

number of inhabitants that was seen on the eastern
coast of New Holland, and the apparent inability
of the country, from its desolate state, to support
many more, observes, ‘‘ By what means the inha-
*‘ bitants of this country are reduced to such a
“number as it can subsist, is not perhaps very
“easy to guess; whether, like the inhabitants of
‘“* New Zealand, they are destroyed by the hands
‘¢ of each other in contests for food; whether they
‘“‘ are swept off by accidental famine; or whether
‘‘ there is any cause that prevents the increase of
‘* the species, must be left for future adventurers
“* to determine.”*

The account which Mr. Collins has given of
these savages will, I hope, afford in some degree
a satisfactory answer. They are described as, in
general, neither tall nor well made. Their arms,
legs, and thighs, are thin, which is ascribed to
the poorness of their mode of living. Those who
inhabit the sea-coast depend almost entirely on
fish for their sustenance, relieved occasionally by
a repast on some large grubs which are found in
the body of the dwarf gum-tree. The very scanty
stock of animals in the woods, and the very great
labour necessary to take them, keep the inland
natives in as poor a condition as their brethren
on the coast. They are compelled to climb the
tallest trees after honey and the smaller animals,
such as the flying squirrel and the opossum.
When the stems are of great height, and without

* Cook’s First Voy. vol. iii. p. 240.

28 Of the Checks to Population in the Bk. i.

branches, which is generally the case in thick
forests, this is a process of great labour, and is
effected by cutting a notch with their stone
hatchets for each foot successively, while their
left arm embraces the tree. Trees were observed
notched in this manner to the height of eighty
feet before the first branch, where the hungry
savage could hope to meet with any reward for
so much toil.*

The woods, exclusive of the animals occasion-
ally found in them, afford but little sustenance.
A few berries, the yam, the fern root, and the
flowers of the different banksias, make up the
whole of the vegetable catalogue.

A native with his child, surprised on the banks
of the Hawksbury river by some of our colonists,
launched his canoe in a hurry, and left behind him
a specimen of his food, and of the delicacy of his
stomach. From a piece of water-soaked wood,
full of holes, he had been extracting and eating
alarge worm. The smell both of the worm and
its habitation was in the highest degree offensive:
These worms, in the language of the country, are
called Cah-bro; and a tribe of natives dwelling
inland, from the cireumstance of eating these
loathsome worms, is named: Cah-brogal. The
wood-natives also make a paste formed of the fern
root and the large and small ants, bruised to-

* Collins's Account of New South Wales, Appendix, p. 549.
Ato.
+ Id. Appen..p. 557. 4to.

Ch. iii. lowest Stage of Human Society. 29

gether; and, in the season, add the eggs of this
insect.*

In acountry, the inhabitants of which are driven
to such resources for subsistence, where the sup-
ply of animal and vegetable food is so extremely
scanty, and the labour necessary to procure it is
so severe, it is evident, that the population must
be very thinly scattered in proportion to the ter-
ritory. Its utmost bounds must be very narrow.
But when we advert to the strange and barbarous
customs of these people, the cruel treatment of
their women, and the difficulty of rearing children;
instead of being surprised that it does not more
frequently press to pass these bounds, we shall be
rather inclined to consider even these scanty re-
sources as more than sufficient to support all the
population that could grow up under such circum-
stances.

The prelude to love in this country is violence,
and of the most brutal nature. The savage. se-
lects his intended wife from the women of a differ-
ent tribe, generally one at enmity with his own.
He steals upon her in the absence of her protec-
tors, and having first stupified her with blows of
a club, or wooden sword, on the head, back, and
shoulders, every one of which is followed by a
stream of blood, he drags her through the woods
by one arm, regardless of the stones and broken
pieces of trees that may lie in his route, and
anxious only to convey his prize in safety to his

* Collins's Account of New South Wales, Appendix, p. 558.

30 Of the Checks to Population in the _ Bk. i.

own party. The woman thus treated becomes his
wife, is incorporated into the tribe to which he
belongs, and but seldom quits him for another.
The outrage is not resented by the relations of
the female, who only retaliate by a similar out-
rage when it is in their power.*

The union of the sexes takes place at an early
age; and instances were known to our colonists
of very young girls having been much and shame-
fully abused by the males.t

The conduct of the husband to his wife or wives,
seems to be nearly in character with this strange
and barbarous mode of courtship. The females
bear on their heads the traces of the superiority
of the males, which is exercised almost as soon as
they find strength in their arms to inflict a blow.
Some of these unfortunate beings have been ob-
served with more scars on their shorn heads, cut
in every direction, than could well be counted.
Mr. Collins feelingly says, ‘‘ The condition of
‘‘ these women is so wretched, that I have often,
‘* on seeing a female child borne on its mother’s
*‘ shoulders, anticipated the miseries to which it
** was born, and thought it would be a mercy to
‘‘ destroy it.”{ In another place, speaking of
Bennilong’s wife being delivered of a child, he
says, “I here find in my papers a note, that for
‘some offence Bennilong had severely beaten

* Collins's New South Wales, Appen. p. 559.
+ Id. Appen. p. 563.
t Id. Appen. p. 583.

Ch. iii. — lowest Stage of Human Society. 31

«« this woman in the morning, a short time before
*« she was delivered.”*

Women treated in this brutal manner must
necessarily be subject to frequent miscarriages,
and it is probable that the abuse of very young
girls, mentioned above as common, and the too
early union of the sexes in general, would tend to
prevent the females from being prolific. Instances
of a plurality of wives were found more frequent
than of a single wife; but what is extraordinary,
Mr. Collins did not recollect ever to have noticed
children by more than one. He had heard from
some of the natives, that the first wife claimed an
exclusive right to the conjugal embrace, while the
second was merely the slave and drudge of both.f

An absolutely exclusive right in the first wife
to the conjugal embrace seems to be hardly pro-
bable ; but it is possible that the second wife may
not be allowed to rear her offspring. At any rate,
if the observation be generally true, it proves that
many of the women are without children, which
can only be accounted for from the very severe
hardships which they undergo, or from some par-
ticular customs which may not have come to the
knowledge of Mr. Collins.

If the mother of a sucking child die, the help-
less infant is buried alive in the same grave with
its mother. The father himself places his living
child on the body of his dead wife, and having

* Collins's New South Wales, Appen. note, p. 562.
+ Id. Appen. p. 560.

32 Of the Checks to Population inthe Bk. i.

thrown a large stone upon it, the grave is instantly
filled by the other natives. This dreadful act was
performed by Co-le-be, a native well known to
our colonists, and who, on being talked to on the
subject, justified the proceeding, by declaring that
no woman could be found who would undertake
to nurse the child, and that therefore it must have
died a much worse death than that which he had
given it. Mr. Collins had reason to believe that
this custom was generally prevalent, and observes,
that it may in some measure account for the thin-
ness of the population.*

Such a custom, though in itself perhaps it might
not much affect the population of a country, places
in a strong point of view the difficulty of rearing
children in savage life. Women obliged by their
habits of living to a constant change of place, and
‘compelled to an unremitting drudgery for their
husbands, appear to be absolutely incapable of
bringing up two or three children nearly of the
same age. If another child be born before the
one above it can shift for itself, and follow its
mother on foot, one of the two must almost neces-
sarily perish for want of care. The task of rear-
ing even one infant, in such a wandering and labo-
rious life, must be so troublesome and _ painful,
that we are not to be surprised that no woman can
be found to undertake it who is not prompted by
the powerful feelings of a mother.

To these causes, which forcibly repress the

* Collins's New South Wales, Appen. p. 607.

Ch. iii. — lowest Stage of Human Society. 33

rising generation, must be added those which
contribute subsequently to destroy it; such as
the frequent wars of these savages with dif-
ferent tribes, and their perpetual contests with
each other; their strange spirit of retaliation
and revenge, which prompts the midnight mur-
der, and the frequent shedding of innocent
blood; the smoke and filth of their miserable
habitations, and their poor mode of living, pro-
ductive of loathsome cutaneous disorders; and,
above all, a dreadful epidemic like the small-pox,
which sweeps off great numbers.*

In the year 1789 they were visited by this epi-
demic, which raged among them with all the
appearance and virulence of the small-pox. The
desolation, which it occasioned, was almost incre-
dible. Not a living person was to be found in the
bays and harbours that were before the most fre-
quented. Not a vestige of a human foot was to
be traced on the sands. They had left the dead
to bury the dead. The excavations in the rocks
were filled with putrid bodies, and in many places
the paths were covered with skeletons.f

Mr. Collins was informed, that the tribe of Co-
le-be, the native mentioned before, had been re-
duced by the effects of this dreadful disorder to
three persons, who found themselves obliged to

* See generally, the Appendix to Collins’s Account of the
English Colony in New South Wales.

+ Collins's New South Wales, Appendix, p. 597.

VOL. I. D

34 Of the Checks to Population, &c. Bk. 1.

unite with some other tribe, to prevent their utter
extinction.*

Under such powerful causes of depopulation,
we should naturally be inclined to suppose that
the animal and vegetable produce of the country
would be increasing upon the thinly scattered in-
habitants, and, added to the supply of fish from
their shores, would be more than sufficient for
their consumption; yet it appears, upon the whole,
that the population is in general so nearly ona
level with the average supply of food, that every
little deficiency from unfavourable weather or
other causes, occasions distress. Particular times,
when the inhabitants seemed to be in great want,
are mentioned as not uncommon, and, at these
periods, some of the natives were found reduced
to skeletons, and almost starved to death.{

* Collins’s New South Wales, Appendix, p. 598.
+ Id. c. iii. p.. 34, and Appen. p. 551.

a
Go
Or

nS

CHAP. IV.

Of the Checks to Population among the American Indians.

WE may next turn our view to the vast continent
of America, the greatest part of which was found
to be inhabited by small independent tribes of
savages, subsisting, nearly like the natives of New
Holland, on the productions of unassisted nature.
The soil was covered by an almost universal
forest, and presented few of those fruits and escu-
lent vegetables which grow in such profusion in
the islands of the South Sea. The produce of a
most rude and imperfect agriculture, known to
some of the tribe of hunters, was so trifling as to
be considered only asa feeble aid to the subsist-
ence acquired by the chase. The inhabitants of
this new world therefore might be considered as
living principally by hunting and fishing ;* and
the narrow limits to this mode of subsistence are
obvious. The supplies derived from fishing could
reach only those who were within a certain dis-
tance of the lakes, the rivers, or the sea-shore;
and the ignorance and indolence of the improvi-

* Robertson’s History of America, vol. ii. b. iv. p. 127. et seq.
octavo edit. 1780.
D2

36 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

dent savage would frequently prevent him from
extending the benefits of these supplies much be-
yond the time when they were actually obtained.
The great extent of territory required for the sup-
port of the hunter has been repeatedly stated and
acknowledged.* The number of wild animals
within his reach, combined with the facility with
which they may be either killed or insnared, must
necessarily limit the number of his society. The
tribes of hunters, like beasts of prey, whom
they resemble in their mode of subsistence, will
consequently be thinly scattered over the surface
of the earth. Like beasts of prey, they must
either drive away or fly from every rival, and be
engaged in perpetual contests with each other.{
Under such circumstances, that America should
be very thinly peopled in proportion to its extent
of territory, is merely an exemplification of the
obvious truth, that population cannot increase
without the food to support it. But the interest-
ing part of the inquiry, that part, to which 1
would wish particularly to draw the attention of
the reader, is, the mode by which the population
is kept down to the level of this scanty supply.
It cannot escape observation, that an insufficient
supply of food to any people does not shew itself
merely in the shape of famine, but in other more
permanent forms of distress, and in generating
certain customs, which operate sometimes with.

* Franklin’s Miscell. p. 2.
+ Robertson, b. iv. p. 129.

Ch, iv. among the American Indians. 37

greater force in the prevention of a rising popu-
lation than in its subsequent destruction.

It was generally remarked, that the American
women were far from being prolific.* This un-
fruitfulness has been attributed by some to a want
of ardour in the men towards their women, a fea-
ture of character, which has been considered as
peculiar to the American savage. It is not how-
ever peculiar to this race, but probably exists ina
great degree among all barbarous nations, whose
food is poor and insufficient, and who live in a
constant apprehension of being pressed by famine
or by anenemy. Bruce frequently takes notice
of it, particularly in reference to the Galla and
Shangalla, savage nations on the borders of Abys-
sinia,{ and Vaillant mentions the phlegmatic tem-
perament of the Hottentots as the chief reason of
their thin population.{ It seems to be generated
by the hardships and dangers of savage life, which
take off the attention from the sexual passion;
and that these are the principal causes of it among
the Americans, rather than any absolute constitu-
tional defect, appears probable, from its dimi-

* Robertson, b. iv. p.106. Burke's America, vol. i. p. 187.
Charlevoix, Hist. de la Nouvelle France, tom. iii. p- 304. Lafitau,
Meeurs des Sauvages, tom. i. p. 590. In the course of this chapter
I often give the same references as Robertson ; but never without
having examined and verified them myself. Where I have not had
an opportunity of doing this, I refer to Robertson alone.

++ Travels to discover the Source of the Nile, vol. ii. pp. 223,
599.

$ Voyage dans I'Intérieur de I’ Afrique, tom. i. p. 12, 13.

38 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

nishing nearly in proportion to the degree in which
these causes are mitigated or removed. In those
countries of America, where, from peculiar situ-
ation or further advantages in improvement, the
hardships of savage life are less severely felt, the
passion between the sexes becomes more ardent.
Among some of the tribes seated on the banks of
rivers well stored with fish, or others that inhabit
a territory greatly abounding in game or much
improved in agriculture, the women are more
valued and admired ; and as hardly any restraint
is imposed on the gratification of desire, the disso-
luteness of their manners is sometimes exces-
sive.*

If we do not then consider this apathy of the
Americans as a natural defect in their bodily
frame, but merely as a general coldness, and an
infrequency of the calls of the sexual appetite, we
shall not be inclined to give much weight to it as
affecting the number of children to a marriage; but
shall be disposed to look for the cause of this un-
fruitfulness in the condition and customs of the
women in a sayage state. And here we shall find
reasons amply sufficient to account for the fact in
question.

It is justly observed by Dr. Robertson, that,
“‘ Whether man has been improved by the pro-
-** gress of arts and civilization, isa question which

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 71. Lettres Edif. et Curieuses, tom.
vi. p. 48, 322, 330. tom. vii. p. 20. 12mo. edit. 1780. Charlevoix,
tom. ili. p. 303, 423, Hennepin, Mceurs des Sauvages, p. 37.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 39

‘in the wantonness of disputation has been
** agitated among philosophers. That women are
“indebted to the refinement of polished manners
“for a happy change in their state, is a point
“which can admit of no doubt.”* In every part
of the world, one of the most: general characteris-
tics of the savage is to despise and degrade the
female sex.t Among most of the tribes in America
their condition is so peculiarly grievous, that ser-
vitude is a name too mild to describe their
wretched state. A wife is no better than a beast
of burden. While the man passes his days in
idleness or amusement, the woman is condemned
to incessant toil. Tasks are imposed upon her
without mercy, and services are received without
complacence or gratitude.{ There are some dis-
tricts in America where this state of degradation
has been so severely felt, that mothers have de-
stroyed their female infants, to deliver them at
once from a life in which they were doomed ta
such a miserable slavery.{

This state of depression and constant labour,
added to the unavoidable hardships of savage life,
must be very unfavourable to the office of child-

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 103.

t+ Robertson, b.iv. p. 103. Lettres Edif. passim. Charlevoix,
Hist. Nouy. Fr, tom. iii, p. 287. Voy. de Pérouse, c. ix. p, 402,
4to. London.

; Robertson, b. iv. p. 105. Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 329,
Major Roger's North America, p. 211. Creuxii Hist, Canad. p. 57.

§ Robertson, b. iv. p. 106. Raynal, Hist. des Indes, tom. iv.
¢. vil. p. 110, 8vo. 10 vol. 1795.

40 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

bearing ;* and the libertinage which generally
prevails among the women before marriage, with
the habit of procuring abortions, must necessarily
render them more unfit for bearing children after-
wards.t One of the missionaries, speaking of
the common practice among the Natchez of
changing their wives, adds, unless they have
children by them; a proof that many of these
marriages were unfruitful, which may be ac-
counted for from the libertine lives of the women
before wedlock, which he had previously no-
ticed.f .
The causes that Charlevoix assigns of the ste-
rility of the American women, are, the suckling
their children for several years, during which
time they do not cohabit with their husbands;
the excessive labour to which they are always
condemned, in whatever situation they may be;
and the custom established in many places, of
permitting the young women to prostitute them-
selves before marriage. Added to this, he says,
the extreme misery to which these people are
sometimes reduced, takes from them all desire of
having children.4 Among some of the ruder
tribes itis a maxim not to burthen themselves

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 106. Creuxii Hist. Canad. p.57. Lafi-
tau, tom. i. p. 590.

+ Robertson, b. iv. p- 72. Ellis’s Voyage, p. 198. Burke’s
America, vol, i. p. 187.

¢ Lettres Edif. tom. vii. p. 20, 22.

§ Charlevoix, N. Fr. tom. iii. p. 304.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 4]

with rearing more than two of their offspring.*
When twins are born, one of them is commonly
abandoned, as the mother cannot rear them both;
and when a mother dies during the period of
suckling her child, no chance of preserving its life
remains, and, as in New Holland, it is buried in
the same grave with the breast that nourished
it.t

As the parents are frequently exposed to want
themselves, the difficulty of supporting their
children becomes at times so great, that they are
reduced to the necessity of abandoning or destroy-
ing them.{ Deformed children are very gene-
rally exposed; and, among some of the tribes in
South America, the children of mothers who do
not bear their labours well, experience a similar
fate, from a fear that the offspring may inherit
the weakness of its parent.§

To causes of this nature we must ascribe the
remarkable exemption of the Americans from de-
formities of make. Even when a mother endea-
vours to rear all her children without distinction,
such a proportion of the whole number perishes
under the rigorous treatment which must be their
lot in the savage state, that probably none of
those who labour under any original weakness or
infirmity can attain the age of manhood. If they
be not cut off as soon as they are born, they

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 107. Lettres Edif. tom. ix. p. 140.
+ Robertson, b. iv. p. 107. Lettres Edif. tom. viii. p. 86.
{ Robertson, b. iv. p. 108.

§ Lafitau, Mceurs des Sauv. tom. i. p. 592.

42 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

cannot long protract their lives under the
severe discipline that awaits them.* In the
Spanish provinces, where the Indians do not lead
so laborious a life, and are prevented from de-
stroying their children, great numbers of them
are deformed, dwarfish, mutilated, blind and
deaf.

Polygamy seems to have been generally allowed
among the Americans, but the privilege was sel-
dom used, except by the Caciques and ‘chiefs, ©
and now and then by others in some of the fertile
provinces of the South, where subsistence was
more easily procured. The difficulty of support-
ing a family confined the mass of the people to
one wife;{ and this difficulty was so generally
known and acknowledged, that fathers, before
they consented to give their daughters in mar-
riage, required unequivocal proofs in the suitor of
his skill in hunting, and his consequent ability to
support a wife and children.{ The women, it is
said, do not marry early;|| and this seems to be
confirmed by the libertinage among them before
marriage, so frequently taken notice of by the
missionaries and other writers.

* Charlevoix, tom. iii. p. 303. Raynal, Hist. des Indes, tom.
viii. 1. xv. p. 22.

+ Robertson, b. iv. p. 73. Voyage d’Ulloa, tom. i. p. 232.

+ Robertson, b. iv. p- 102, Lettres Edif, tom. viii. p- 87.

§ Lettres Edif. tom. ix. p. 364. Robertson, b. iv. p. 115.

|| Robertson, b, iv. p. 107,

4 Lettres Edif. passim. Voyage d’Ulloa, tom. i. p. 343.
Burke’s America, vol. i. p. 187. Charlevoix, tom. iii. p. 303,
304,

Ch. iy. among the American Indians. 43

The customs above enumerated, which appear
to have been generated principally by the experi-
ence of the difficulties attending the rearing of a
family, combined with the number of children
that must necessarily perish under the hardships
of savage life, in spite of the best efforts of their
parents to save them,* must, without doubt, most
powerfully repress the rising generation.

When the young savage has passed safely
through the perils of his childhood, other dangers
scarcely less formidable await him on his ap-
proach to manhood. The diseases to which man
is subject in the savage state, though fewer in
number, are more violent and fatal than those
which prevail in civilized society. As savages
are wonderfully improvident, and their means of
subsistence always precarious, they often pass
from the extreme of want to exuberant plenty,
according to the vicissitudes of fortune in the
chase, or to the variety in the produce of the
seasons.| Their inconsiderate gluttony in the
one case, and their severe abstinence in the other,
are equally prejudicial to the human constitution ;
and their vigour is accordingly at some seasons
impaired by want, and at others by a superfluity
of gross aliment, and the disorders arising from
indigestions.{ These, which may be considered
as the unavoidable consequences of their mode of

* Creuxius says, that scarcely one in thirty reaches manhood
(Hist. Canad. p. 57); but this must be a very great exaggeration.

+ Robertson, b. iv. p. 85.

+ Charlevoix, tom, ili, p, 202, 303,

44 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

living, cut off considerable numbers in the prime
of life. They are likewise extremely subject to
consumptions, to pleuritic, asthmatic, and para-
lytic disorders, brought on by the immoderate
hardships and fatigues which they endure in
hunting and war, and by the inclemency of the
seasons, to which they are continually exposed.*

The missionaries speak of the Indians in South
America as subject to perpetual diseases for
which they know no remedy.{ Ignorant of the
use of the most simple herbs, or of any change
in their gross diet, they die of these diseases in
great numbers. The Jesuit Fauque says, that, in
all the different excursions which he had made, he
scarcely found a single individual of an advanced
age.{ Robertson determines the period of human
life to be shorter among savages than in well-re-
gulated and industrious communities.§ Raynal,
notwithstanding his frequent declamations in
favour of savage life, says of the Indians of
Canada, that few are so long lived as our people,
whose manner of living is more uniform and tran-
quil.| And Cook and Pérouse confirm these
opinions in the remarks which they make on
some of the inhabitants of the north-west coast of
America.4]

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 86. Charlevoix, tom. iii.p. 364. Lafitau,
tom. ii. p. 360, 361.

+ Lettres Edif. tom. viii. p. 83.

+ Lettres Edif. tom. vii. p. 317. et seq.

§ B. iv. p. 86.

{| Raynal, b. xv. p. 23.

{| Cook, third Voy. vol. iii, ch. ii. p. 520. Voy. de Perouse,

ch, ix,

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 45

In the vast plains of South America, a burning
sun, operating on the extensive swamps and the
inundations that succeed the rainy seasons, some-
times produces dreadful epidemics. The mis-
sionaries speak of contagious distempers as fre-
quent among the Indians, and occasioning at times
a great mortality in their villages.* The small-
pox every where makes great ravages, as, from
want of care and from confined habitations, very
few thatare attacked recover from it.f The Indians
of Paraguay are said to be extremely subject to
contagious distempers, notwithstanding the care
and attentions of the Jesuits. The small-pox and
malignant fevers, which, from the ravages they
make, are called plagues, frequently desolate
these flourishing missions; and, according to Ulloa,
were the cause that they had not increased in
proportion to the time of their establishment,
and the profound peace which they had en-
joyed.t

These epidemics are not confined to the south.
They are mentioned as if they were not uncommon
among the more northern nations;{ and, in a late
voyage to the north-west coast of America, Cap-
tain Vancouver gives an account of a very extra-
ordinary desolation apparently produced by some
distemper of this kind. From New Dungeness
he traversed a hundred and fifty miles of the coast

* Lettres Edif. tom. viii. p. 79, 339. tom. ix. p. 129.
+ Voyage d’Ulloa, tom. i. p. 349.

t Id. tom. i, p. 549.

§ Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 335.

46 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

without secitie the same number of inhabitants.
Deserted villages were frequent, each of which
was large enough to contain all the scattered sa-
vages that had been observed in that extent of
country. In the different excursions which he
made, paiticularly about Port Discovery, the
skulls, limbs, ribs and back-bones, or some other
vestiges of the human body, were scattered pro-
miscuously in great numbers; and, as no warlike
sears were observed on the bodies of the remain-
ing Indians, and no particular signs of fear and
suspicion were noticed, the most probable con-
jecture seems to be, that this depopulation must
have been occasioned by pestilential disease.*
The small-pox appears to be common and fatal
among the Indians on this coast. Its indelible
marks were observed on many, and several had
lost the sight of one eye from it.f

In general, it may be remarked of savages, that,
from their extreme ignorance, the dirt of their
persons, and the closeness and filth of their
cabins,t they lose the advantage which usually
attends a thinly peopled country, that of being
more exempt from pestilential diseases than those
which are fully inhabited. In some parts of
America the houses are built for the reception of

* Vancouver's Voy. vol. i. b. ii, c. v. p. 256.

T Id. c. iv. p. 242.

¢ Charlevoix speaks in the strongest terms of the extreme filth
and stench of the American cabins, “ On ne peut entrer dans leurs
“ cabanes qu'on ne soit impesté:” and the dirt of their meals, he
says, ‘ vous feroit horreur.” Vol. iii. p. 338.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 47

many different families; and fourscore or a hun-
dred people are crowded together under the same
roof. When the families live separately, the huts
are extremely small, close and wretched, without
windows, and with the doors so low, that it is ne-
cessary to creep on the hands and knees to enter
them.* On the north-west coast of America, the
houses are, in general, of the large kind; and
Meares describes one of most extraordinary di-
mensions, belonging to a chief near Nootka Sound,
in which eight hundred persons ate, sat, and slept.
All voyagers agree with respect to the filth of the
habitations and the personal nastiness of the peo-
ple on this coast.{ Captain Cook describes them
as swarming with vermin, which they pick off and
eat ;{ and speaks of the state of their habitations
in terms of the greatest disgust.|| Pérouse de-
clares that their cabins have a nastiness and stench
to which the den of no known animal in the world
can be compared.

Under such circumstances, it may be easily ima-
gined what a dreadful havoc an epidemic must
make, when once it appears among them; and it.
does not seem improbable, that the degree of filth
described should generate distempers of this na-

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 182. Voyage d’Ulloa, tom. i. p. 340.

+ Meares’s Voyage, ch. xii. p. 138.

t Meares’s Voyage, ch. xxiii. p. 252. Vaneouver’s Voyage, vol.
ili. b. vi. c. i. p. 313.

§ Cook’s 3d Voyage, vol. ii. p. 305.

\| Id. ¢. iii. p. 316.

G Voyage de Pérouse, e, ix. p. 403,

48 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

ture, as the air of their houses cannot be much
purer than the atmosphere of the most crowded
cities.

Those who escape the dangers of infancy and of
disease, are constantly exposed to the chances of
war; and notwithstanding the extreme caution of
the Americans in conducting their military opera-
tions, yet, as they seldom enjoy any interval of
peace, the waste of their numbers in war is con-
siderable.* The rudest of the American nations
are well acquainted with the rights of each com-
munity to its own domains.f And as it is of the
utmost consequence to prevent others from de-
stroying the game in their hunting grounds, they
guard this national property with a jealous atten-
tion. Innumerable subjects of dispute necessarily
arise. The neighbouring nations live in a perpe-
tual state of hostility with each other.{ The very
act of increasing in one tribe must be an act of ag-
gression on its neighbours; as a larger range of
territory will be necessary to support its increased
numbers. The contest will in this case naturally
continue, either till the equilibrium is restored by
mutual losses, or till the weaker party is exter-
minated, or driven from its country. When the
irruption of an enemy desolates their cultivated
lands, or drives them from their hunting-grounds;

* Charlevoix, Hist. de la Nouv. France, tom. iii. 202, 203,
429.

¢ Robertson, b. iv. p. 147.

¢ Robertson, b. iv. p. 147. Lettres Edif. tom. viii. p- 40,86, & pas-
sim. Cook’s 3d Voy. vol. ii. p.324, Meares’s Voy. ch. xxiv, p. 267.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 49

as they have seldom any portable stores, they are
generally reduced to extreme want. All the peo-
ple of the district invaded, are frequently forced
to take refuge in woods or mountains, which
can afford them no subsistence, and where many
of them perish.* In such a flight each consults
alone his individual safety. Children desert their
parents, and parents consider their children as
strangers. The ties of nature are no longer bind-
ing. A father will sell his son for a knife or a
hatchet.| Famine and distresses of every kind
complete the destruction of those whom the sword
had spared; and in this manner whole tribes are
frequently extinguished.

Such a state of things has powerfully contri-
buted to generate that ferocious spirit of warfare
observable among savages in general, and most
particularlyamong the Americans. Their object in
battle is not conquest, but destruction.{ The life
of the victor depends on the death of his enemy;
and, in the rancour and fell spirit of revenge with
which he pursues him, he seems constantly to bear
in mind the distresses that would be consequent
on defeat. Among the Iroquois, the phrase by
which they express their resolution of making war
against an enemy, is, ‘‘ Let us go and eat that

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 172. Charlevoix, Nouv. France, tom. iii.
p- 203.

t Lettres Edif. tom. viii. p. 346.

t Robertson, b. iv. p. 172. Account of North America, by
Major Rogers, p. 250.
. § Robertson, b. iv. p. 150.

VOL. I. E

50 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

nation.” If they solicit the aid of a neighbouring
tribe, they invite them to eat broth made of the
flesh of their enemies.* | Among the Abnakis,
when a body of their warriors enters an enemy’s
territory, it is generally divided into different par-
ties, of thirty or forty; and the chief says to each,
‘To you is given such a hamlet to eat, to you such
a village,”*t &c. These expressions remain in the
language of some of the tribes, in whichthe custom of
eating their prisoners taken in war no longer exists.
Cannibalism, however, undoubtedly prevailed in
many parts of the new world;{ and, contrary to
the opinion of Dr. Robertson, I cannot but think
that it must have had its origin in extreme want,
though the custom might afterwards be continued
from other motives. It seems to be a worse com-
pliment to human nature and to the savage state,
to attribute this horrid repast to malignant pas-
sions, without the goad of necessity, rather than
to the great law of self-preservation, which has at
times overcome every other feeling, even among
the most humane and civilized people. When
once it had prevailed, though only occasionally,
from this cause; the fear that a savage might feel
of becoming a repast to his enemies, might easily
raise the passion of rancour and revenge to so high
a pitch, as to urge him to treat his prisoners in
this way, though not prompted at the time by
hunger.

* Robertson b. iv. p. 164.
+ Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 205.
t Robertson, b. iv. p. 164.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 51

The missionaries speak of several nations,’
which appeared to use human flesh whenever
they could obtain it, as they would the flesh of
any of the rarer animals.* These accounts may
perhaps be exaggerated, though they seem to be
confirmed in a great degree by the late voyages
to the north-west coast of America, and by Capt.
Cook’s description of the state of society in the
southern island of New Zealand.t| The people of
Nootka Sound appear to be cannibals;{ and the
chief of the district, Maquinna, is said to be so
addicted to this horrid banquet, that, in cold
blood, he kills a slave every moon to gratify his
unnatural appetite.{

The predominant principle of self-preservation,
connected most intimately in the breast of the
savage, with the safety and power of the com-
munity to which he belongs, prevents the admis-
sion of any of those ideas of honour and gallantry
in war, which prevail among more civilized na-
tions. To fly from an adversary that is on his
guard, and to avoid a contest where he cannot
contend without risk to his own person, and
consequently to his community, is the point of

* Lettres Edif. tom. viii. p. 105, 271. tom. vi. p. 266.

tT Cautious as Captain Cook always is, he says of the New
Zealanders, “ it was but too evident that they have a great liking
“ for this kind of food.” Second Voyage, vol. i. p. 246. And in
the last Voyage, speaking of their perpetual hostilities, he says,
“* and perhaps the desire of a good meal may be no small incite-
“ment.” Vol. i. p. 137.

$ Cook’s Third Voyage, vol. ii, p. 271.

§ Meares’s Voyage, ch. xxiv. p. 255

E 2

52 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

honour with the American. The odds of ten to
one are necessary to warrant an attack on a person
who is armed and prepared to resist; and even
then each is afraid of being the first to advance.*
The great object of the most renowned warrior
is by every art of cunning and deceit, by every
mode of stratagem and surprise that his invention
can suggest, to weaken and destroy the tribes of
his enemies with the least possible loss to his
own. To meet an enemy on equal terms is re-
garded as extreme folly. To fall in battle, instead
of being reckoned an honourable death, is a mis-
fortune, which subjects the memory of a warrior
to the imputation of rashness and imprudence.
But to lie in wait day after day, till he can rush
upon his prey when most secure, and least able
to resist him; to steal in the dead of night upon
his enemies, set fire to their huts, and massacre
the inhabitants, as they fly naked and defenceless
from the flames,{ are deeds of glory, which will
be of deathless memory in the breasts of his grate-
ful countrymen.

This mode of warfare is evidently produced by
a consciousness of the difficulties attending the
rearing of new citizens under the hardships and
dangersof savage life. And these powerful causes
of destruction may in some instances be so great
as to keep down the population even considerably
below the means of subsistence ; but the fear that

* Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 360.
+ Charlevoix, No. Fr. tom. iii. p. 376.
+ Robertson, b. iv. p. 155. Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 182, 360.

Ch.iv. among the American Indians. 53

. the Americans betray of any diminution of their
society, and their apparent wish to increase it, are
no proofs that this is generally the case. The
country could not probably support the addition
that is coveted. in each society ; but an accession
of strength to one tribe opens to it new sources
of subsistence in the comparative weakness of its
adversaries ; and, on the contrary, a diminution
of its numbers, so far from giving greater plenty
to the remaining members, subjects them to extir-
pation or famine from the irruptions of their
stronger neighbours.

The Chiriguanes, originally only a small part
of the tribe of Guaranis, left their native country
in Paraguay, and settled in the mountains towards
Peru. They found sufficient subsistence in their
new country, increased rapidly, attacked their
neighbours, and by superior valour or superior
fortune gradually exterminated them, and took
possession of their lands; occupying a great
extent of country, and having increased, in the
course of some years, from three or four thousand
to thirty thousand,* while the tribes of their
weaker neighbours were daily thinned by famine
and the sword.

Such instances prove the rapid increase even of
the Americans under favourable circumstances,
and sufficiently account for the fear which pre-
vails in every tribe of diminishing its numbers,

* Lettres Edif. tom. viii. p. 243. Les Chiriguanes multipli-
érent prodigieusement, et en assez peu d’annces leur nombre monta,
& trente mille ames.

54 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

and the frequent wish to increase them,* without
supposing a superabundance of food in the terri-
tory actually possessed.

That the causes,t which have been mentioned
as affecting the population of the Americans, are
principally regulated by the plenty or scarcity
of subsistence, is sufficiently evinced from the
greater frequency of the tribes, and the greater
numbers in each, throughout all those parts of the
country, where, from the vicinity of lakes or
rivers, the superior fertility of the soil, or further
advances in improvement, food becomes more
abundant. In the interior of the provinces border-
ing on the Oronoco, several hundred miles may
be traversed in different directions without finding
a single hut, or observing the footsteps of a single
creature. Insome parts of North America, where
the climate is more rigorous, and the soil less fertile,
the desolation is still greater. Vast tracts of some
hundred leagues have been crossed through unin-
habited plainsand forests.[ The missionaries speak
of journeys of twelve days without meeting a

* Lafitau, tom. ii. p. 163.

+ These causes may perhaps appear more than sufficient to keep
the population down to the level of the means of subsistence ; and
they certainly would be so, if the representations given of the
unfruitfulness of the Indian women were universally, or even ge-
nerally true. It is probable that some of the accounts are exag-
gerated, but it is difficult to say which; andit must beacknowledged,
that, even allowing for all such exaggerations, they are amply suf-
ficient to establish the point proposed.

+ Robertson, b. iv. p. 129, 130.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 55

single soul,* and of immense tracts of country, in
which scarcely three or four scattered villages
were to be found.f| Some of these deserts fur-
nished no game,f and were therefore entirely de-
solate; others, which were to a certain degree
stocked with it, were traversed in the hunting
seasons by parties, who encamped and remained in
different spots, according to the success they met
with, and were therefore really inhabited in pro-
portion to the quantity of subsistence which they
yielded.§

Other districts of America are described as
comparatively fully peopled; such as the borders
of the great northern lakes, the shores of Mis-
sissippi, Louisiana, and many provinces in South
America. The villages here were large, and near
each other, in proportion to the superior fruitful-
ness of the territory in game and fish, and the ad-
vances made by the inhabitants in agriculture.||
The Indians of the great and populous empires of
Mexico and Peru sprung undoubtedly from the
same stock, and originally possessed the same
customs as their ruder brethren; but from the
moment when, by a fortunate train of circum-
stances, they were led to improve and extend their
agriculture, a considerable population rapidly fol-
lowed, in spite of the apathy of the men, or the

* Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 357.

¢ Id. p.'321.

$ Id. tom. ix. p. 145.

§ Id. tom. vi. p. 66, 81, 345. tom. ix. p. 145.

\| Id. tom. ix. p. 90, 142. Robertson, b. iv. p. 141.

56 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

destructive habits of the women. These habits
would indeed in a great measure yield to the
change of circumstances; and the substitution of
a more quiet and sedentary life fora life of perpe-
tual wandering and hardship, would immediately
render the women more fruiful, and enable them
at the same time to attend to the wants ofa larger
family.

In a general view of the American continent,
as described by historians, the population seems
to have been spread over the surface very nearly
in proportion to the quantity of food which the
inhabitants of the different parts, in the actual
state of their industry and improvement, could
obtain; and that, with few exceptions, it pressed
hard against this limit, rather than fell short of it,
appears from the frequent recurrence of distress
for want of food in all parts of America.

Remarkable instances occur, according to Dr.
Robertson, of the calamities which rude nations
suffer by famine. As one of them, he mentions
an account given by Alvar Nugnez Cabeca de
Vaca, one of the Spanish adventurers, who resid-
ed almost nine years among the savages of Flo-
rida. He describes them as unacquainted with
every species of agriculture, and living chiefly
upon the roots of different plants, which they
procure with great difficulty, wandering from
place to place in search of them.. Sometimes
they kill game, sometimes they catch fish, but in
such small quantities, that their hunger is so ex-
treme as to compel them to eat spiders, the eggs

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 57

of ants, worms, lizards, serpents, and a kind of
unctuous earth; and, I am persuaded, he says,
that if in this country there were any stones,
they would swallow them. They preserve the
bones of fishes and serpents, which they grind
into powder, and eat. The only season when
they do not suffer much from famine, is when a
certain fruit like the opuntia, or prickly-pear, is
ripe; but they are sometimes obliged to travel
far from their usual place of residence, in order
to find it. In another place, he observes that
they are frequently reduced to pass two or three
days without food.*

Ellis, in his Voyage to Hudson’s Bay, feelingly
describes the sufferings of the Indians in that
neighbourhood from extreme want. Having men-
tioned the severity of the climate, he says, “ Great
“as these hardships are which result from the
«« rigour of the cold, yet it may justly be affirmed
“‘ that they are much inferior to those which they
“‘ feel from the scarcity of provisions, and the
«« difficulty they are under of procuring them. A
“story which is related at the factories, and
«known to be true, will sufficiently prove this,
“and give the compassionate reader a just idea
‘“‘ of the miseries to which these unhappy people
« are exposed.” He then gives an account ofa
poor Indian and his wife, who, on the failure of
game, having eaten up all the skins which they

* Robertson, note 28 to p. 117, b. iv.

58 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

wore as clothing, were reduced to the dreadful
extremity of supporting themselves on the flesh
of two of their children.* In another place, he
says, “It has sometimes happened that the
‘« Indians who come in summer to trade at the
‘« factories, missing the succours they expected,
“have been obliged to singe off the hair from
“ thousands of beaver-skins, in order to feed upon
“‘ the leather.’

The Abbé Raynal, who is continually reason-
ing most inconsistently in his comparisons of
savage and civilized life, though in one place he
speaks of the savage as morally sure of a compe-
tent subsistence, yet, in his account of the nations
of Canada, says, that though they lived in a coun-
try abounding in game and fish, yet in some sea-
sons and sometimes for whole years, this resource
failed them; and famine then occasioned a great
destruction among a people who were at too great
a distance to assist each other.

Charlevoix, speaking of the inconveniences and
distresses to which the missionaries were subject,
observes that not unfrequently the evils which he
had been describing are effaced by a greater, in
comparison of which all the others are nothing.
This is famine. It is true, says he, that the sa-
vages can bear hunger with as much patience as
they shew carelessness in providing against it;

* Robertson, p. 196.
fo. 194.

* Raynal, Histoire des Indes, tom. viii. I. xv. p. 22.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 59

but they are sometimes reduced to extremities
beyond their power to support.*

It is the general custom among most of the
American nations, even those which have made
some progress in agriculture, to disperse them-
selves in the woods at certain seasons of the year,
and to subsist for some months on the produce of
the chase, as a principal part of their annual sup-
plies.t To remain in their villages exposes them
to certain famine;{ and in the woods they are
not always sure to escape it. The most able
hunters sometimes fail of success, even where
there is no deficiency of game;{§ and in their
forests, on the failure of this resource, the hunter
or the traveller is exposed to the most cruel
want.|| The Indians, in their hunting excursions,
are sometimes reduced to pass three or four days
without food; and a missionary relates an ac-
count of some Iroquois, who, on one of these oc-
casions, having supported themselves as long as
they could, by eating the skins which they had
with them, their shoes, and the bark of trees, at
length, in despair, sacrificed some of the party to
support the rest. Out of eleven, five only re-
turned alive.**

* Hist. N. Fr. tom, iii. p. 338.

+ Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 66, 81, 345. ix. 145.

t Id. tom, vi. p. 82, 196, 197, 215. ix. 151.

§ Charlevoix, N. Fr, tom. iii. p. 201. Hennepin, Mceurs des
Sauv. p. 78.

|| Lettres Edif. tom. vi. p. 167, 220.

q Id. tom. vi. p. 33.
** Td. tom. vi. p. 71.

60 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i:

The Indians, in many parts of South America,
live in extreme want,* and are sometimes de-
stroyed by absolute famines.f The islands, rich
as they appeared to be, were peopled fully up to
the level of their produce. If a few Spaniards
settled in any district, such a small addition of
supernumerary mouths soon occasioned a severe
dearth of provisions.{ The flourishing Mexican
empire was in the same state in this respect; and
Cortez often found the greatest difficulty in pro-
curing subsistence for his small body of soldiers.§
Even the missions of Paraguay, with all the care
and foresight of the Jesuits, and notwithstanding
that their population was kept down by frequent
epidemics, were by no means totally exempt from
the pressure of want. The Indians of the Mission
of St. Michael are mentioned as having at one
time increased so much, that the lands capable of
cultivation in their neighbourhood, produced only
half of the grain necessary for their support.||
Long droughts often destroyed their cattle, and
occasioned a failure of their crops; and on these
occasions some of the Missions were reduced to
the most extreme indigence, and would have
perished from famine, but for the assistance of
their neighbours.**

* Lettres Edif. tom. vii. p. 383. ix. 140.

1 Id. tom. viii. p- 79.

¢ Robertson, b. iv. p.121. Burke’s America, vol. i. p. 30.

§ Robertson, b. viii. p. 212.

|| Lettres Edif. tom. ix, p- 381.

4 Id. tom. ix. p. 191.
** Td. tom. ix. p. 206, 380.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 61

The late voyages to the north-west coast of
America confirm these accounts of the frequent
pressure of want in savage life, and shew the un-
certainty of the resource of fishing, which seems
to afford, in general, the most plentiful harvest of
food that is furnished by unassisted nature. The
sea on the coast near Nootka Sound is seldom or
never so much frozen as to prevent the inhabitants
from having access to it. Yet from the very great
precautions they use in laying up stores for the
winter, and their attention to prepare and pre-
serve whatever food is capable of it for the colder
seasons, it is evident that the sea at these times
yields no fish; and it appears that they often un-
dergo very great hardships from want of provi-
sions in the cold months.* During a Mr. Mackay’s
stay at Nootka Sound, from 1786 to 1787, the
length and severity of the winter occasioned a
famine. The stock of dried fish was expended,
and no fresh supplies of any kind were to be
caught; so that the natives were obliged to sub-
mit to a fixed allowance, and the chiefs brought
every day to our countrymen the stated meal of
seven dried herrings’ heads. Mr. Meares says
that the perusal of this gentleman’s journal would
shock any mind tinctured with humanity.

Captain Vancouver mentions some of the peo-
ple to the north of Nootka Sound as living very
miserably on a paste made of the imner bark of

* Meares’s Voyage, ch. xxiv. p. 266.
¢ Id. ch. xi. p. 132.

62 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

the pine-tree and cockles.* In one of the boat
excursions, a party of Indians was met with who
had some halibut, but, though very high prices
were offered, they could not be induced to part
with any. This, as Captain Vancouver observes,
was singular, and indicated a very scanty supply.f
At Nootka Sound, in the year 1794, fish had be-
come very scarce and bore an exorbitant price ;
as, either from the badness of the season or from
neglect, the inhabitants had experienced the
greatest distress for want of provisions during
winter.

Pérouse describes the Indians in the neigh-
bourhood of Port Francois as living during the
summer in the greatest abundance by fishing, but
exposed in the winter to perish from want.§

It is not therefore, as Lord Kaimes imagines,
that the American tribes have never increased
sufficiently to render the pastoral or agricultural
state necessary to them;|| but, from some cause
or other, they have not adopted in any great de-
gree these more plentiful modes of procuring
subsistence, and therefore have not increased so
as to become populous. If hunger alone could
have prompted the savage tribes of America to

* Vancouver's Voyage, vol. ii. b. ii. c. ii, p. 273.

+ Id. ib. p. 282.

} Id. vol. iii. b. vi. c. i. p. 304.

§ Voyage de Pérouse, ch. ix. p. 400. *

|| Sketches of the History of Man, vol. i. p. 99, 105, 8vo. 2d
edit.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 63

such a change in their habits, I do not conceive
that there would have been a single nation of hun-
ters and fishers remaining; but it is evident that
some fortunate train of circumstances, in addition
to this stimulus, is necessary for the purpose;
and it is undoubtedly probable, that these arts of
obtaining food will be first invented and improved
in those spots which are best suited to them, and
where the natural fertility of the situation, by
allowing a greater number of people to subsist
together, would give the fairest chance to the
inventive powers of the human mind.

Among most of the American tribes that we
have been considering, so great a degree of equal-
ity prevailed that all the members of each com-
munity would be nearly equal sharers in the ge-
neral hardships of savage life and in the pressure
of occasional famines. But in many of the more
southern nations, as in Bogota,* and among the
Natchez, and particularly in Mexico and Peru,
where a great distinction of ranks prevailed, and
the lower classes were in a state of absolute ser-
vitude,f{ it is probable that, on occasion of any
failure of subsistence, these would be the princi-
pal sufferers, and that the positive checks to po-
pulation would act almost exclusively on this
part of the community.

The very extraordinary depopulation that has
taken place among the American Indians, may

* Robertson, b. iv. p. 141.

¢ Lettres Edif. tom. vii. p. 21. Robertson, b. iv. p. 139.
t Robertson, b. vii. p. 190, 242.

64 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

appear to some to contradict the theory which is
intended to be established; but it will be found
that the causes of this rapid diminution may all
be resolved into the three great checks to popu-
lation which have been stated; and it is not as-
serted, that these checks, operating from parti-
cular circumstances with unusual force, may not,
in some instances, be more powerful even than
the principle of increase.

The insatiable fondness of the Indians for
spirituous liquors,* which, according to Charlevoix,
is a rage that passes all expression,t by pro-
ducing among them perpetual quarrels and con-
tests which often terminate fatally, by exposing
them to a new train of disorders which their
mode of life unfits them to contend with, and by
deadening and destroying the generative faculty
in its very source, may alone be considered as a
vice adequate to produce the present depopula-
tion. In addition to this, it should be observed
that almost every where the connexion of the In-
dians with Europeans has tended to break their
spirit, to weaken or give a wrong direction to their
industry, and in consequence to diminish the
sources of subsistence. In St. Domingo, the In-
dians neglected purposely to cultivate their lands
in order to starve out their cruel oppressors.{ In
Peru and Chili, the forced industry of the natives
was fatally directed to the digging in the bowels

* Major Rogers’s Account of North America, p. 210.
+ Charlevoix, tom. iii. p. 302.
~ Robertson, b. ii. p. 185. Burke's America, vol. i. b. 300.

Ch. iv. among the American Indians. 65

of the earth, instead of cultivating its surface ;
and, among the northern tribes, the extreme de-
sire to purchase European spirits directed the in-
dustry of the greatest part of them, almost exclu-
sively, to the procuring of plenty for the purpose
of this exchange,* which would prevent their
attention to the more fruitful sources of subsist-
ence, and at the same time tend rapidly to destroy
the produce of the chace. The number of wild
animals, in all the known parts of America, is
even more diminished than the number of people.{
The attention to agriculture has every where
slackened, rather than increased, as might at first
have been expected, from European connexion.
In no part of America, either North or South, do
we hear of any of the Indian nations living in great
plenty, in consequence of their diminished num-
bers. It may not therefore be very far from the truth,
to say that even now, in spite of all the powerful
causes of destruction that have been mentioned,
the average population of the American nations
is, with few exceptions, on a level with the
average quantity of food, which in the present
state of their industry they can obtain.

* Charlevoix, N. Fr. tom. iii. p. 260.
+ The general introduction of fire-arms among the Indians has
probably greatly contributed to the diminution of the wild ani-

mals.

VOL. I. Kr

( 66)

CHAP. V.

Of the Checks to Population in the Islands of the
South Sea.

Tue Abbé Raynal, speaking of the ancient state
of the British isles, and of islanders in general,
says of them: ‘It is among these people that we
‘‘ trace the origin of that multitude of singular
‘¢ institutions which retard the progress of popu-
«lation. Anthropophagy, the castration of males,
“the infibulation of females, late marriages,
‘< the consecration of virginity, the approbation of
“celibacy, the punishments exercised against
« girls who become mothers at too early an age, *
&c. These customs, caused by a superabundance
of population in islands, have been carried, he
says, to the continents, where philosophers of
our days are still employed to investigate the
reason of them. The Abbé does not seem to be
aware that a savage tribe in America surrounded
by enemies, or a civilized and populous nation
hemmed in by others.in the same state, is, in
many respects, circumstanced like the islander.
Though the barriers to a further increase of popu-

* Raynal, Histoire des Indes, vol. ii. liv. iii. p. 3. 10 vols. 8vo.
1795.

Ch. v. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 67

lation be not so well defined, and so open to com-
mon observation, on continents as on islands, yet
they still present obstacles that are nearly-as in-
surmountable; and the emigrant, impatient of the
distresses which he feels in his own country, is by
no means secure of finding relief in another.
There is probably no island yet known, the pro-
duce of which could not be further increased.
This is all that can be said of the whole earth.
Both are peopled up to their actual produce.
And the whole earth is in this respect like an
island. But, as. the bounds to the number of
people on islands, particularly when they are of
small extent, are so narrow, and so distinctly
marked, that every person must see and acknow-
ledge them, an inquiry into the checks to popu-
lation on those, of which we have the most
authentic accounts, may tend considerably to
illustrate the present subject. The question that
is asked in Captain Cook’s first Voyage, with
respect to the thinly scattered savages of New
Holland, ‘‘ By what means the inhabitants of this
** country are reduced to such a number as it can
“ subsist?* may be asked with equal propriety
respecting the most populous islands in the South
Sea, or the best peopled countries in Europe and
Asia. The question, applied generally, appears
to me to be highly curious, and to lead to the
elucidation of some of the most obscure, yet im-
portant points, in the history of human society.

* Cook's First Voyage, vol. iii. p. 240, 4to.

E2

68 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

I cannot so clearly and concisely describe the
precise aim of the first part of the present work,
as by saying that it is an endeavour to answer
' this question so applied.

- Of the large islands of New Guinea, New Bri-
tain, New Caledonia, and the New Hebrides,
little is known with certainty. The state of so-
ciety in them is probably very similar to that
which prevails among many of the savage nations
of America. They appear to be inhabited by a
number of different tribes, who are engaged in fre-
quent hostilities with each other. The chiefs have
little authority ; and private property being in con-
sequence insecure, provisions have heen rarely
found on them in abundance.* With the large
island of New Zealand we are better acquainted ;
but not in a manner to give us a favourable im-
pression of the state of society among its inhabi-
tants. The picture of it, drawn by Captain Cook
im his three different Voyages, contains some of
the darkest shades that are any where to be met
within the history of human nature. The state of
perpetual hostility, in which the different tribes
of these people live with each other, seems to be
even more striking than among the savages of any
part of America;{ and their custom of eating
human flesh, and even their relish for that kind of
' * See the different accounts of New Guinea and New Britain,
in the Histoire des Navigations aux terres Australes ; and of New

Caledonia and the New Hebrides in Cook’s Second Voyage, ye

li. b. ili.

+ Cook’s First Voyage, vol. ii. p.345. Second Voyage, vol. i. 9.
101. Third Voyage, vol. i. p. 161, &c.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 69

food, are established beyond a_ possibility of
doubt.* Captain Cook, who is by no means in-
clined to exaggerate the vices of savage life, says,
of the natives in the neighbeurhood of Queen
Charlotte’s Sound, ‘ If I had followed the advice
** of all our pretended friends, I might have extir-
*“ pated the whole race; for the people of each
*‘ hamlet or village, by turns, applied to me to de--
** stroy the other. One would have thought it al-
** most impossible that so striking a proof of the
*‘ divided state in which these miserable people
«live, could have been assigned.”{ And, in the
same chapter, further on, he says, ‘“‘ From my
“© own observations, and the information of Taw-
** eiharooa, it appears to me, that the New Zea-
« Janders must live under perpetual apprehensions
“‘ of being destroyed by each other; there being
** few of their tribes that have not, as they think,
‘«* sustained wrongs from some other tribes, which
** they are continually upon the watch to revenge.
«« And, perhaps, the desire of a good meal may be
“no small incitement.**** Their method of exe-
** cuting their horrible designs is by stealing upon
« the adverse party in the night ; and if they find
“them unguarded (which, however, I believe, is
«very seldom the case) they kill every one indis-
“criminately, not even sparmg the women and
«children. When the massacre is completed,
“ they either feast and gorge themselves on the

* Cook's Second Voyage, vol. i. p. 246.
+ Id. Third Voyage, vol. i, p. 124.

70 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

“ spot, or carry off as many of the dead bodies as
“ they can, and devour them at home with acts of
‘ brutality too shocking to be described.**** To
“‘ give quarter, or take prisoners, makes no part
‘of the military law, so that the vanquished can
‘only save their lives by flight. This perpetual
‘ state of war and destructive method of conduct-
‘ ing it, operates so strongly in producing habitual
‘‘ circumspection, that one hardly ever finds a
“« New Zealander off his guard, either by night or
“by day.”*

As these observations occur in the last Voyage,
m which the errors of former accounts would have
been corrected, and as a constant state of warfare
is here represented as prevailing to such a degree
that it may be considered as the principal check
to the population of New Zealand, little need be
added on this subject. We are not informed
whether any customs are practised by the women
unfavourable to population. If such be known,
they are probably never resorted to, except in
times of great distress ; as each tribe will natu-
rally wish to increase the number of its members
in order to give itself greater power of attack and
defence. But the vagabond life which the women
of the southern island lead, and the constant state
of alarm in which they live, being obliged to travel
and work with arms in their hands,} must un-
doubtedly be very unfavourable to gestation, and
tend greatly to prevent large families.

n

n

n

a

* Cook's Third Voyage, vol. i. p. 137.
+ Id. Second Voyage, vol. i. p. 127.

Ch.-v. the Islands of the South Sea. 71

Yet powerful as thesechecks to population are, it
appears, from the recurrence of seasons of scarcity,
that they seldom repress the number of people

below the average means of subsistence. ‘‘ That
“such seasons there are,” (Captain Cook says,)
“our observations leave us no room to doubt.”™
Fish is a principal part of their food, which, being
only to be procured on the sea-coast, and at cer-
tain times,{ must always be considered as a pre-
carious resource. It must be extremely difficult
to dry and preserve any considerable stores in a
state of society subject to such constant alarms ;
particularly, as we may suppose, that the bays
and creeks most abounding in fish would most
frequently be the subject of obstinate contest to
people who were wandering in search of food.
The vegetable productions are, the fern root,
yams, clams and potatoes.{ The three last are
raised by cultivation, and are seldom found on
the southern island, where agriculture is but little
known.|| On the occasional failure of these
scanty resources from unfavourable seasons, it
may be imagined that the distress must be dread-
ful. At such periods it does not seem improbable
that the desire of a good meal should give addi-
tional force to the desire of revenge, and that they
should be “ perpetually destroying each other by

* Cook’s First Voyage, vol. iii. p. 66.
+ Id. p. 45.

+ Id. Third Voyage, vol. i. p. 157.

§ Id. First Voyage, vol. iii. p. 43.

\| Id. vol. ii. p. 405.

72 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

*« violence, as the only alternative of perishing Be
“ hunger.”*

If we turn our eyes from the thinly scattered in-
habitants of New Zealand to the crowded shores
of Otaheite and the Society Islands, a different
scene opens to our view. All apprehension of
‘dearth seems at first sight to be banished from a
country that is described to be fruitful as the gar-
den of the Hesperides.t But this first impression
would be immediately corrected by a moment's
reflection. Happiness and plenty have always
been considered as the most powerful causes of
increase. In a delightful climate, where few
diseases -are known, and the women are con-
demned to no severe fatigues, why should not
these causes operate with a force unparalleled in
less favourable regions? Yet if they did, where
could the population find room and food in such
circumscribed limits? Ifthe numbers in Otaheite,
not 40 leagues in circuit, surprised Captain Cook,
when he calculated them at two hundred and four
thousand,f where could they be disposed of in a
single century, when they would amount to above
three millions, supposing them to double their num-
bers every twenty-five years.§ Each island of the

* Cook's First Voyage, vol. iii. p. 45.

t Missionary Voyage, Appendix, p. 347.

{ Cook’s Second Voyage, vol. i. p. 349.

§ I feel very little doubt that this rate of increase is much slower
than would really take place, supposing every check to be removed.
If Otaheite, with its present produce, were peopled only with a
hundred persons, the two sexes in equal numbers, and each man

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 73

group would be in a similar situation. The re-
moval from one to another would be a change of
place, but not a change of the species of distress.
Effectual emigration, or effectual importation,
would be utterly excluded, from the situation of
the islands and the state of navigation among their
inhabitants.

The difficulty here is reduced to so narrow a
compass, is so clear, precise and forcible that we
cannot escape from it. It cannot be answered in
the usual vague and inconsiderate manner, by
talking of emigration, and further cultivation. In
the present instance, we cannot but acknowledge,
that the one is impossible, and the other glaringly
inadequate. The fuilest conviction must stare us
in the face, that the people on this group of islands
could not continue to double their numbers every
twenty-five years; and before we proceed to in-
quire into the state of society on them, we must be
perfectly certain that, unless a perpetual miracle
render the women barren, we shall be able to
trace some very powerful checks to population in
the habits of the people.

The successive accounts that we have received
of Otaheite and the neigbouring islands, leave us
no room to doubt the existence of the Eareeoie so-

constant to one woman ; I cannot but think that, for five or six
successive periods, the increase would be more rapid than in any
instance hitherto known, and that they would probably doubte
their numbers in less than fifteen years.

74 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

cieties,* which have justly occasioned so much
surprise among civilized nations. They have been
so often described, that little more need be said
of them here, than that promiscuous intercourse
and infanticide appear to be their fundamental
laws. They consist exclusively of the higher
classes; ‘‘ and” (according to Mr. Anderson){
*« so agreeable is this licentious plan of life to their
‘« disposition, that the most beautiful of both sexes
“‘ thus commonly spend their youthful days, habi-
“‘ tuated to the practice of enormities that would
‘‘ disgrace the most savage tribes.****When an
«« Eareeoie woman is delivered of a child, a piece
‘ of cloth dipped in water is applied to the mouth
‘* and nose, which suffocates it.”{ Captain Cook
observes, ‘‘ It is certain that these societies
“‘ oreatly prevent the increase of the superior
-*« classes of people, of which they are composed.”§
Of the truth of this observation there can be no
doubt.

Though no particular mstitutions of the same
nature have been found among the lower classes;
yet the vices which form their most prominent

* Cook’s First Voyage, vol. ii. p. 207, et seq. Second Voyage,
vol. i. p. 352. Third Voyage, vol. ii. p. 157, et seq. Missionary
Voyage, Appendix, p. 547, 4to.

+ Mr. Anderson acted in the capacity of naturalist and surgeon
in Cook’s last voyage. Captain Cook, and all the officers of the
expedition, seem to have had a very high opinion of his talents and
accuracy of observation. His accounts, therefore, may be looked
upon as of the first authority.

{ Cook's Third Voyage, vol. ii. p. 158, 159.

§ Id. Second Voyage, vol. i. p, 352.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 75

features are but too generally spread. Infanticide
is not confined to the Eareeoies. It is permitted
to all; and as its prevalence among the higher
classes of the people has removed from it all
odium, or imputation of poverty, it is probably
often adopted rather as a fashion, than a resort of
necessity, and appears to be practised familiarly
and without reserve. ;

It is a very just observation of Hume, that the
permission of infanticide generally contributes to
increase the population of a country.* By re-
moving the fears of too numerous a family, it en-
courages marriage; and the powerful yearnings
of nature prevent parents from resorting to so
cruel an expedient, except in extreme cases. The
fashion of the Eareeoie societies, in Otaheite and
its neighbouring islands, may have made them an
exception to this observation; and the custom has
probably here a contrary tendency.

The debauchery and promiscuous intercourse
which prevail among the lower classes of people,
though in some instances they may have been
exaggerated, are established to a great extent on
unquestionable authority. Captain Cook, in a
professed endeavour to rescue the women of
Otaheite from a too general imputation of licenti-
ousness, acknowledges that there are more of this
character here than in any other countries; making
at the same time a remark of the most decisive
nature, by observing that the women who thus

* Hume's Essays, vol. i. essay xin p. 431. 8vo. 1764,

76 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

conduct themselves do not in any respect lower
their rank in society, but mix indiscriminately
with those of the most virtuous character.*

The common marriages in Otaheite are without
any other ceremony than a present from the man
to the parents of the girl. And this seems to be
rather a bargain with them for permission to try
their daughter, than an absolute contract for a
wife. Ifthe father should think that he has not
been sufficiently paid for his daughter, he makes
no scruple of forcing her to leave her friend, and
to cohabit with another person who may be more
liberal. The man is always at liberty to make
anew choice. Should his consort become preg-
nant, he may kill the child, and, after that, con-
tinue his connexion with the mother, or leave her,
according to his pleasure. It is only when he
has adopted a child and suffered it to live, that
the parties are considered as in the marriage
state. A younger wife however may afterwards
be joined to the first; but the changing of con-
nexions is much more general than this plan, and
is a thing so common that they speak of it with
great indifference.t Libertinism before marriage
seems to be no objection to an union of this kind
ultimately.

The checks to population from such a state of
society would alone appear sufficient to counteract
the effects of the most delightful climate, and the
most exuberant plenty. Yet these are not all.

* Cook’s Second Voyage, vol. i. p. 187.
} Id. Third Voyage, vol. ii. p. 157.

Ch. vy. the Islands of the South Sea. 77

The wars between the inhabitants of the different
islands, and their civil contentions among them-
selves, are frequent, and sometimes carried on in
a very destructive manner.* Besides the waste
of human life in the field of battle, the conquerors
generally ravage the enemy's territory, kill or
carry off the hogs and poultry, and reduce as
much as possible the means of future subsistence.
The island of Otaheite, which, in the years 1767
and 1768, swarmed with hogs and fowls, was, in
1773, so ill supplied with these animals, that
hardly any thing could induce the owners to part
with them. This was attributed by Captain Cook
principally to the wars which had taken place
during that interval.{ On Captain Vancouver's
visit to Otaheite in 1791, he found that most of
his friends, whom he had left in 1777, were dead ;
that there had been many wars since that time, in
some of which the chiefs of the western districts
of Otaheite had joined the enemy; and that the
king had been for a considerable time completely
worsted, and his own districts entirely laid waste.
Most of the animals, plants and herbs, which Cap-
tain Cook had left, had been destroyed by the
ravages of war.{

The human sacrifices which are frequent in
Otaheite, though alone sufficiently strong to fix
the stain of barbarism on the character of the

* Bougainville, Voy. autour du Monde, ch. iii. p. 217. Cook's
First Voyage, vol. ii. p. 244. Missionary Voyage, p. 224.

‘++ Cook’s Second Voyage, vol. i. p. 182, 183.

t Vancouver's Voy. vol. i. b. i. c. 6. p. 98. 4to.

78 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

natives, do not probably occur in such consider-
able numbers as materially to affect the popu-
lation of the country; and the diseases, though
they have been dreadfully increased by European
contact, were before peculiarly lenient ; and, even
for some time afterwards, were not marked by
any extraordinary fatality.*

The great checks to increase appear to be the
vices of promiscuous intercourse, infanticide, and
war, each of these operating with very consi-
derable force. Yet, powerful in the prevention
and destruction of life as these causes must be,
they have not always kept down the population
to the level of the means of subsistence. Accord-
ing to Mr. Anderson, “ Notwithstandng the ex-
“‘ treme fertility of the island, a famine frequently
“happens, in which it is said many perish.
« Whether this be owing to the failure of some
“‘ seasons, to over-population, (which must some-
“times almost necessarily happen,) or wars, I
«‘ have not been able to determine; though the
‘« truth of the fact may fairly be inferred from the
“ oreat economy that they observe with respect
“‘ to their food, even when there is plenty.”°, Af-
ter a dinner with a chief at Ulietea, Captain Cook
observed, that when the company rose, many of
the common people rushed in, to pick up the
crumbs which had fallen, and for which they
searched the leaves very narrowly. Several of
them daily attended the ships, and assisted the

* Cook's Third Voy, vol. ii, p. 148.

+ Id. p. 153, 154.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 79

butchers for the sake of the entrails of the hogs
which were killed. In general, little seemed to
fall to their share, except offals. <‘ It must be
““ owned,” Captain Cook says, ‘‘ that they are
“‘ exceedingly careful of every kind of provision,
“and waste nothing that can be eaten by man,
“ flesh and fish especially.”*

- From Mr. Anderson’s account,. it appears that
a very small portion of animal food falls to the lot
of the lower class of people, and then it is either
fish, sea-eggs, or other marine productions; for
they seldom or never eat pork. The king or prin-
cipal chief is alone able to furnish this luxury
every day; and the inferior chiefs, according to
their riches, once a week, fortnight, or month.f
When the hogs and fowls have been diminished
by wars or too great consumption, a prohibition
is laid upon these articles of food, which continues
in force sometimes for several months, or even for
a year or two, during which time of course they
multiply very fast, and become again plentiful.{
The common diet even of the Eareeoies, who are
among the principal people of the islands, is,
according to Mr. Anderson, made up of at least
nine-tenths of vegetable food.{ And as a distinc-
tion of ranks is so strongly marked, and the lives
and property of the lower classes of people appear
to depend absolutely on the will of their chiefs,

* Cook’s Second Voy. vol. i. p. 176.
+ Id. Third Voy. vol. ii. p. 154.

t Id. p. 155.

§ Id. p. 148.

80 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

we may well imagine that these chiefs will often
live in plenty, while their vassals and servants are
pinched with want.

From the late accounts of Otaheite in the Mis-
sionary Voyage, it would appear, that the depo-
pulating causes above enumerated have operated
with most extraordinary force since Captain
Cook’s last visit. A rapid succession of destruc-
tive wars, during a part of that interval, is taken
notice of in the intermediate visit of Captain Van-
couver;* and from the small proportion of women
remarked by the Missionaries,} we may infer that
a greater number of female infants had been de-
stroyed than formerly. This scarcity of women
would naturally increase the vice of promiscuous
intercourse, and, aided by the ravages of European
diseases, strike most effectually at the root of
population.f

It is probable that Captain Cook, from the data
on which he founded his calculation, may have
overrated the population of Otaheite, and perhaps
the Missionaries have rated it too low;§ but I
have no doubt that the population has very con-
siderably decreased since Captain Cook’s visif,:
from the different accounts that are given of the
habits of the people with regard to economy at
the different periods. sheet Cook and Mr. An-
derson agree in describing their extreme careful-

* Vancouver's Voy. vol. i. b. i.c. 7. p. 137.
t+ Missionary Voyage, p. 192 & 385.

+ Id. Appen. p. 347.

§ Id. ch. xiii. p. 212.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 81

ness of every kind of food; and Mr. Anderson,
apparently after a very attentive investigation of
the subject, mentions the frequent recurrence of
famines. The Missionaries, on the contrary,
though they strongly notice the distress from this
cause in the Friendly Islands and the Marquesas,
speak of the productions of Otaheite as being in
the greatest profusion; and observe that notwith-
standing the horrible waste committed at feast-
ings, and by the Eareeoie society, want is seldom
known.*

It would appear, from these accounts, that the
population of Otaheite is at present repressed
considerably below the average means of subsis-
tence, but it would be premature to conclude that
it will continue long so. The variations in the
state of the island which were observed by Cap-
tain Cook in his different visits appear to prove
that there are marked oscillations in its prosperity
and population.t And this is exactly what we
should suppose from theory. We cannot imagine
that the population of any of these islands has for
ages past remained stationary at a fixed number,
or that it can have been regularly increasing, ac-
cording to any rate, however slow. Great fluc-
tuations must necessarily have taken place. Over-
populousness would at all times increase the na-
tural propensity of savages to war; and the en-
mities occasioned by aggressions of this kind,

* Missionary Voy. p. 195. Appen. p. 385.
+ Cook's Second Voy. vol. i. p. 182, & seq. and 346.
VOL. I. G

82 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

would continue to spread devastation, long after
the original inconvenience, which might have
prompted them, had ceased to be felt.* The dis-
tresses experienced from one or two unfavourable
seasons, operating on a crowded population,
which was before living with the greatest econo-
my, and pressing hard against the limits of its
food, would, in such a state of society, occasion
the more general prevalence of infanticide and
promiscuous intercourse;} and these depopula-
ting causes would in the same manner continue to
act with increased force, for some time after the
occasion which had aggravated them was at an
end. A change of habits to a certain degree,
eradually produced by a change of circumstances,
would soon restore the population, which could
not long be kept below its natural level without
the most extreme violence. How far European
contact may operate in Otaheite with this extreme
violence, and prevent it from recovering its former
population, is a point which experience only can de-
termine. But, should this be the case, I have no
doubt that, on tracing the causes of it, we shall find
them to be aggravated vice and misery.

Of the other islands in the Pacific Ocean we
have a less intimate knowledge than of Otaheite ;

* Missionary Voy. p. 225.

+ Lhope I may never be misunderstood with regard to some of
these preventive causes of over-population, and be supposed to im-
ply the slightest approbation of them, merely because I relate their
effects. A cause, which may prevent any particular evil, may be
beyond all comparison worse than the evil itself.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 83

but our information is sufficient to assure us that
the state of society in all the principal groups of
them is in most respects extremely similar.
Among the Friendly and Sandwich islanders, the
same feudal system and feudal turbulence, the
same extraordinary power of the chiefs and de-
graded state of the lower orders of society, and
nearly the same promiscuous intercourse among
a great part of the people, have been found to
prevail, as in Otaheite.

In the Friendly Islands, though the power of
the king was said to be unlimited, and the life
and property of the subject at his disposal; yet it
appeared that some of the other chiefs acted like
petty sovereigns, and frequently thwarted his
measures, of which he often complained. ‘‘ But
“‘ however independent” (Captain Cook says)
“‘on the despotic power of the king the great
** men may be, we saw instances enough to prove
“that the lower orders of people have no pro-
** perty nor safety for their persons, but at the
*« will of the chiefs to whom they respectively
* belong.”"* The chiefs often beat the inferior
people most unmercifully;} and, whenany of them
were caught in a theft on board the ships, their
masters, far from interceding for them, would
often advise the killing of them,{ which, as the
chiefs themselves appeared to have no great hor-
ror of the crime of theft, could only arise from

* Cook's Third Voy. vol. i. p. 406.
+ p. 232.
t p. 233.

G2

84 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

their considering the lives of these poor people as
of little or no value.

Captain Cook, in his first visit to the Sandwich
Islands, had reason to think that external wars
and internal commotions were extremely frequent
among the natives.* And Captain Vancouver, in
his later account, strongly notices the dreadful
devastations in many of the islands from these
causes. Incessant contentions had occasioned
alterations in the different governments since
Captain Cook’s visit. Only one chief of all that
were known at that time was living; and, on in-
quiry, it appeared that few had died a natural
death, most of them having been killed in these
unhappy contests.| The power of the chiefs over
the inferior classes of the people in the Sandwich
Islands appears to be absolute. The people, on
the other hand, pay them the most implicit obe-
dience; and this state of servility has manifestly
a great effect in debasing both their minds and
bodies.{ The gradations of rank seem to be even
more strongly marked here than in the other
islands, as the chiefs of higher rank behave to
those who are lower in this scale in the most
haughty and oppressive manner.{

It is not known that either in the Friendly or
Sandwich Islands infanticide is practised, or that
institutions are established similar to the Eareeoie

* Cook’s Third Voy. vol. ii. p. 247.

+ Vancouver, vol. i. b. ii. c. ii. p. 187, 188.
+ Cook's Third Voy. vol. iii. p. 157.

§ Id.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 85

societies in Otaheite. But it seems to be stated
on unquestionable authority that prostitution is
extensively diffused, and prevails to a great de-
gree among the lower classes of women ;* which
must always operate as a most powerful check to
population. It seems highly probable that the
toutous, or servants, who spend the greatest part
of their time in attendance upon the chiefs,t do
not often marry ; and it is evident that the poly-
gamy allowed to the superior people must tend
greatly to encourage and aggravate the vice of
promiscuous intercourse among the inferior
classes.

Were it an established fact that in the more
fertile islands of the Pacific Ocean very little or
nothing was suffered from poverty and want of
food, as we could not expect to find among sa-
vages in such climates any great degree of moral
restraint, the theory on the subject would natu-
rally lead us to conclude, that vice, including war,
was the principal check to their population. The
accounts which we have of these islands strongly
confirm this conclusion. In the three great
groups of islands which have been noticed, vice
appears to be a most prominent feature. In Eas-
ter Island, from the great disproportion of the
males to the females,{ it can scarcely be doubted

* Cook’s Third Voy. vol. i. p. 401. Vol. ii. p. 543. Vol. iii.
p- 130. Missionary Voy. p. 270.

t+ Cook’s Third Voyage, vol. i. p. 394.

¢ Id. Second Voy. vol. i. p. 289. | Voyage de Pérouse, c. iv. p.
323. c. v. p. 336. 4to. 1794.

86 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1

that infanticide prevails, though the fact may
not have come to the knowledge of any of our
navigators. Pérouse seemed to think that the
women in each district were common property to
the men of that district,* though the numbers of
children which he saw} would rather tend to con-
tradict this opinion. The fluctuations in the po-
pulation of Easter Island appear to have been
very considerable since its first discovery by
Roggewein in 1722, though it cannot have been
much affected by European intercourse. From
the description of Pérouse it appeared, at the
time of his visit, to be recovering its population,
which had been in a very low state, probably
either from drought, civil dissensions, or the pre-
valence in an extreme degree of infanticide and
promiscuous intercourse. When Captain Cook
visited it in his second voyage, he calculated the
population at six or seven hundred,f Pérouse at
two thousand ;§ and, from the number of children
which he observed, and the number of new houses
that were building, he conceived that the popula-
tion was on the increase. ||

In the Marianne Islands, according to Pere
Gobien, a very great number of the young men

* Perouse, c. iv. p. 326. c. v. p. 336.

+ Id. c. v. p. 336.

+ Cook’s Second Voy. vol. i. p. 289.

§ Pérouse, c. v. p. 336.

|| Ibid.

4 Une infinité de jeunes gens.—Hist. des Navigations aux
Terres Australes, vol. ii. p. 507.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 87

remained unmarried, living like the members of
the Eareeoie society in Otaheite, and distinguished
by asimilar name.* In the island of Formosa, it
is said that the women were not allowed to bring
children into the world before the age of thirty-
five. If they were with-child prior to that period,
an abortion was effected by the priestess, and till
the husband was forty years of age the wife conti-
nued to live in her father’s house, and was only
seen by stealth.+

The transient visits which have been made to
some other islands, and the imperfect accounts
we have of them, do not enable us to enter into
any particular detail of their customs; but, from
the general similarity of these customs, as far as
has been observed, we have reason to think that,
though they may not be marked by some of the
more atrocious peculiarities which have been
mentioned, vicious habits with respect to women,

* Cook’s Third Voyage, vol. ii. p. 158, note of the Editor.

+, Harris's Collection of Voyages, 2 vols. folio edit. 1744, vol. i.
p. 794. This relation is given by John Albert de Mandesloe, a
German traveller of some reputation for fidelity, though I believe,
in this instance, he takes his accounts from the Dutch writers
quoted by Montesquieu (Esprit des Loix, liv. 23. ch. 17). The
authority is not perhaps sufficient to establish the existence of so
strange a custom; though I confess it does not appear to me
wholly improbable. In the same account it is mentioned, that
there is no difference of condition among these people, and that
their wars are so bloodless that the death of a single person gene-
rally decides them. In a very healthy climate, where the habits
of the people were favourable to population and a community of
goods was established, as no individual would have reason to fear

88 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. 1.

and wars, are the principal checks to their popu-
lation.

These however are not all. On the subject of
the happy state of plenty, in which the natives of
the South-Sea Islands have been said to live, I
am inclined to think that our imaginations have.
been carried beyond the truth by the exuberant
descriptions which have sometimes been given of
these delightful spots. The not unfrequent pres-
sure of want, even in Otaheite, mentioned in
Captain Cook’s last voyage, has undeceived us
with regard to the most fertile of all these islands;
and from the Missionary voyage it appears, that,
at certain times of the year, when the bread-fruit
is out of season, all suffer a temporary scareity.
At Oheitahoo, one of the Marquesas, itamounted to
hunger, and the very animals were pinched for
want of food. At Tongataboo, the principal of
the Friendly Islands, the chiefs to secure plenty
changed their abodes to other islands,* and, at
times, many of the natives suffered much from
want.t In the Sandwich Islands long droughts
sometimes occur,t hogs and yams are often very
scarce,§ and visitors are received with an unwel-
particular poverty from a large family, the government would be
in a manner compelled to take upon itself the suppression of the
population by law; and, as this would be the greatest violation of
every natural feeling, there cannot be a more forcible argument
against a community of goods.

* Missionary Voy. Appen. p. 389.

+ ld. p. 270.

+ Vancouver's Voy. vol. ii. b. iii. e. viii. p. 230.

§ Id. ¢. vii. and viii.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 89

come austerity, very different from the profuse
benevolence of Otaheite. In New Caledonia the
inhabitants feed upon spiders,* and are sometimes
reduced to eat great pieces of steatite to appease
the cravings of their hunger.t )

These facts strongly prove that, in whatever
abundance the productions of these islands may
be found at certain periods, or.however they may
be checked by ignorance, wars and other causes,
the average population, generally speaking,
presses hard against the limits of the average
food. In a state of society, where the lives of
the inferior orders of the people seem to be consi-
dered by their superiors as of little or no value, it
is evident that we are very liable to be deceived
with regard to the appearances of abundance ; and
we may easily conceive that hogs and vegetables
might be exchanged in great profusion for Euro-
pean commodities by the principal proprietors,
while their vassals and slaves were suffering se-
verely from want.

I cannot conclude this general review of that
department of human society which has been
classed under the name of savage life, without
observing that the only advantage in it above
civilized life that I can discover, is the possession
of a greater degree of leisure by the mass of the
people. There is less work to be done, and con-

* Voyage in Search of Pérouse, ch. xiii. p. 420. Eng. trausl.
Ato.
+ Id. ch, xiii. p. 400.

90 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

sequently there is less labour. When we consider
the incessant toil to which the lower classes of
society in civilized life are condemned, this can-
not but appear to us a striking advantage; but it
is probably overbalanced by much greater disad-
vantages. In all those countries where provisions
are procured with facility, a most tyrannical dis-
tinction of rank prevails. Blows and violations of
property seem to be matters of course; and the
lower classes of the people are in a state of com-
parative degradation, much below what is known
in civilized nations. In that part of savage life
where a great degree of equality obtains, the dif-
ficulty of procuring food and the hardships of
incessant war create a degree of labour not in-
ferior to that which is exerted by the lower
classes of the people in civilized society, though
much more unequally divided.

But though we may compare the labour of
these two classes of human society, their priva-
tions and sufferings will admit of no comparison,
Nothing appears to me to place this in so striking
a point of view, as the whole tenor of education
among the ruder tribes of savages in America.
Every thing that can contribute to teach the most
unmoved patience under the severest pains and
misfortunes, every thing that tends to harden the
heart, and narrow all the sources of sympathy, is
most sedulously inculcated on the savage. The
civilized man, on the contrary, though he may be
advised to bear evil with patience when it comes,
is not instructed to be always expecting it.

Ch. v. the Islands of the South Sea. 91

Other virtues are to be called into action besides
fortitude. He is taught to feel for his neighbour,
or even his enemy, in distress; to encourage and
expand his social affections; and, in general, to
enlarge the sphere of pleasurable emotions. The
obvious inference from these two different modes
of education is, that the civilized man hopes to
enjoy, the savage expects only to suffer.

The preposterous system of Spartan discipline,
and that unnatural absorption of every private
feeling in concern for the public, which has
sometimes been so absurdly admired, could
never have existed but among a people exposed
to perpetual hardships and privations from in-
cessant war, and in a state under the constant
fear of dreadful reverses of fortune. Instead of
considering these phenomena as indicating any
peculiar tendency to fortitude and patriotism in
the disposition of the Spartans, I should merely
consider them as a strong indication of the
miserable and almost savage state of Sparta, and
of Greece in general at that time. Like the
commodities in a market, those virtues will be
produced in the greatest quantity, for which
there is the greatest demand; and where pati-
ence under pain and privations, and extravagant
patriotic sacrifices, are the most called for, it is
a melancholy indication of the misery of the
people, and the insecurity of the state.

( 92)

CHAP. VI.

Of the Checks to Population among the ancient Inhabi-
tants of the North of Europe.

A uistory of the early migrations and settle-
ments of mankind, with the motives which
prompted them, would illustrate in a striking
manner the constant tendency in the human race
to increase beyond the means of subsistence.
Without some general law of this nature, it would
seem as if the world could never have been peo-
pled. A state of sloth, and not of restlessness
and activity, seems evidently to be the natural
state of man; and this latter disposition could
not have been generated but by the strong goad
of necessity, though it might afterwards be con-
tinued by habit, and the new associations that
were formed from it, the spirit of enterprise, and
the thirst of martial glory.

We are told that Abraham and Lot had so great
substance in cattle, that the land would not bear
them both, that they might dwell together. There
was strife between their herdsmen. And Abraham
proposed to Lot to separate, and said, ‘‘ Is not
** the whole land before thee? If thou wilt take
*‘ the left hand, then I will go to the right; if

Ch. vi. Checks to Population, &c. 93

‘«« thou depart to the right hand, then I will go to
*« the left.”*

This simple observation and proposal is a
striking illustration of that great spring of action
which overspread the whole earth with people;
and, in the progress of time, drove some of the
less fortunate inhabitants of the globe, yielding
to irresistible pressure, to seek a scanty subsist-
ence in the burning deserts of Asia and Africa,
and the frozen regions of Siberia and North
America. The first migrations would naturally
find no other obstacles than the nature of the
country ; but when a considerable part of the
earth had been peopled, though but thinly, the
possessors of these districts would not yield them
to others without a struggle; and the redundant
inhabitants of any of the more central spots
could not find room for themselves without ex-
pelling their nearest neighbours, or at least passing
through their territories, which would necessarily
give occasion to frequent contests.

The middle latitudes of Europe and Asia seem
to have been occupied at an early period of his-
tory by nations of shepherds. Thucydides gave
it as his opinion, that the civilized states of Eu-
rope and Asia, in his time, could not resist the
Scythians united. Yet a country in pasture
cannot possibly support so many inhabitants as
a country in tillage. But what renders nations of
shepherds so formidable, is the power which they

* Genesis, ch. xiii.

94 Checks.to Population among the ancient Bk. i.

possess of moving altogether, and the necessity
they frequently feel of exerting this power in
search of fresh pasture for their herds. A tribe
that is rich in cattle has an immediate plenty of
food. Even the parent stock may be devoured
in case of absolute necessity. The women live
in greater ease than among nations of hunters,
and are consequently more prolific. The men,
bold in their united strength, and confiding in
their power of procuring pasture for their cattle
by change of place, feel probably but few fears
about providing for a family. These combined
causes soon produce their natural and invariable
effect, anextended population. A morefrequentand
rapid change of place then becomes necessary.
A wider and more extensive territory is succes-
sively occupied. A broader desolation extends
all around them. Want pinches the less fortu-
nate members of the society; and at length the
impossibility of supporting such a number toge-
ther becomes too evident to be resisted. Young
scions are then pushed out from the parent stock,
and instructed to explore fresh regions, and to
gain happier seats for themselves by _ their
swords.

“* The world is all before them where to choose.”

Restless from present distress, flushed with the
hope of fairer prospects, and animated with the
spirit of hardy enterprise, these daring adven-
turers are likely to become formidable adver-
saries to all who oppose them. The inhabitants

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe, 95

of countries long settled, engaged in the peaceful
occupations of trade and agriculture, would not
often be able to resist the energy of men acting
under such powerful motives of exertion. And
the frequent contests with tribes in the same
circumstances with themselves, would be so
many struggles for existence, and would be
fought with a desperate courage, inspired by the
reflection, that death would be the punishment of
defeat, and life the prize of victory.

In these savage contests, many tribes must
have been utterly exterminated. Many probably
perished by hardships and famine. Others,
whose leading star had given them a happier
direction, became great and powerful tribes, and
in their turn sent off fresh adventurers in search
of other seats. These would at first owe allegi-
ance to their parent tribe; but in a short time
the ties which bound them would be little felt,
and they would remain friends, or become ene-
mies, according as their power, their ambition or
their convenience, might dictate.

The prodigious waste of human life, occasioned
by this perpetual struggle for room and food,
would be more than supplied by the mighty
power of population, acting in some degree un-
shackled from the constant habit of migration.
A prevailing hope of bettering their condition by
change of place, a constant expectation of plun-
der, a power even, if distressed, of selling their
children as slaves, added to the natural careless-
ness of the barbaric character, would all conspire

96. Checks to Population among the ancient _ Bk. i.

to raise a population, which would remain to be
repressed afterwards by famine and war.

The tribes that possessed themselves of the more
fruitful regions, though they might win them and
maintain them by continual battles, rapidly in-
creased in number and power, from the increased
means of subsistence; till at length the whole ter-
ritory, from the confines of China to the shores of
the Baltic, was peopled by a various race of bar-
barians, brave, robust, and enterprising, inured to
hardships, and delighting in war.* While the dif-
ferent fixed governments of Europe and Asia, by
superior population and superior skill, were able
to oppose an impenetrable barrier to their destroy-
ing hordes, they wasted their superfluous num-
bers in contests with each other; but the moment
that the weakness of the settled governments, or
the casual union of many of these wandering
tribes, gave them the ascendant in power, the
storm discharged itself on the fairest provinces of
the earth; and China, Persia, Egypt and Italy
were overwhelmed at different periods in this
flood of barbarism.

These remarks are strongly exemplified in the

fS

* The various branchings, divisions, and contests of the great
Tartar nation are curiously described in the Genealogical History
of the Tartars by the Khan Abul Ghazi: (translated into English
from the French, with additions, in 2 vols. 8vo.) but the misfor-
tune of all history is, that while the particular motives of a few
princes and leaders, in their various projects of ambition, are some-

times detailed with accuracy, the general causes which crowd their
standards with willing followers are often entirely overlooked.

Ch. vi. - Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 97

fall of the Roman empire. The shepherds of the
north of Europe were long held in check by the
vigour of the Roman arms, and the terror of the
Roman name. The formidable irruption of the
Cimbri in search of new settlements, though sig-
nalized by the destruction of five consular armies,
was at length arrested in its victorious career by
Marius; and the barbarians were taught to repent
their rashness by the almost complete extermina-
tion of this powerful colony.* The names of Ju-
lius Cesar, of Drusus, Tiberius, and Germanicus,
impressed on their minds by the slaughter of their
countrymen, continued to inspire them with a fear
of encroaching on the Roman territory. But they
were rather triumphed over than vanquished ;f and
though the armies or colonies which they sent
forth were either cut off or forced back into their
original seats, the vigour of the great German na-
tion remained unimpaired, and ready to pour forth
her hardy sons in constant succession, wherever
they could force an opening for themselves by their
swords. The feeble reigns of Decius, Gallus,
Mumilianus, Valerian, and Gallienus, afforded such
an opening, and were in consequence marked by a
general irruption of barbarians. The Goths, who
were supposed to have migrated in the course of
some years from Scandinavia to the Euxine, were
bribed to withdraw their victorious troops by an
annual tribute. But no sooner was the dangerous

* Tacitus de Moribus Germanorum, s. 37.

+ Id. ib.
VOL. I. Hl

98 Checks to Population among the ancient - Bk. i.

secret of the wealth and weakness of the Roman
empire thus revealed to the world, than newswarms
of barbarians spread devastation through the fron<
tier provinces, and terror as far as the gates of
Rome.* The Franks, the Allemanni, the Goths,
and adventurers of less considerable tribes, com-
prehended under these generalappellations, poured
like a torrent on different parts of the empire.
Rapine and oppression destroyed the produce of
the present and the hope of future harvests. A
long and general famine was followed by a wasting
plague, which for fifteen years ravaged every city
and province of the Roman empire; and, judging
from the mortality in some spots, it was conjec-
tured that in a few years war, pestilence, and fa-
mine, had consumed the moiety of the human spe-
cies.{| Yet the tide of emigration still continued
at intervals to roll impetuously from the north;
and the succession of martial princes, who repaired
the misfortunes of their predecessors, and propped
the falling fate of the empire, had to accomplish
the labours of Hercules in freeing the Roman ter-
ritory from these barbarous invaders. The Goths,
who, in the year 250 and the following years, ra-
vaged the empire both by sea and land with vari-
ous success, but in the end with the almost total
loss of their adventurous bands,ft in the year 269
sent out an emigration of immense numbers, with
' * Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, vol. i. c. x.
p- 407, et seq. 8vo. Edit. 1783.

f Id. vol. i.c. x. p. 455, 456.
¢ Id. vol. i. c. x. p. 431.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 99

their wives and families, for the purpose of settle-
ment.* This formidable body, which was said to
consist at first of 320,000 barbarians,} was ulti-
mately destroyed and dispersed by the vigour and
wisdom of the emperor Claudius. His successor,
Aurelian, encountered and vanquished new hosts
of the same name that had quitted their settlements
in the Ukraine; but one of the implied conditions
of the peace was, that he should withdraw the
Roman forces from Dacia, and relinquish this great
province to the Goths and Vandals.f A new and
most formidable invasion of the Allemanni threat-
ened soon after to sack the mistress of the world,
and three great and bloody battles were fought by
Aurelian before this destroying host could be
exterminated, and Italy be delivered from its ra-
vages.§

The strength of Aurelian had crushed on every
side the enemies of Rome. After his death they
seemed to revive with an increase of fury and
numbers. They were again vanquished on all
sides by the active vigour of Probus. The deli-
verance of Gaul alone from the German invaders is
reported to have cost the lives of four hundred
thousand barbarians.|| The victorious emperor
pursued his successes into Germany itself; and
the princes of the country, astonished at his pre-

* Gibbon, vol. ii. c. xi. p. 13.
f Idiip. 12.

t Id. p. 19, A. D. 270,

§ Id. p. 26.

|| Id. vol. ii. c. xii. p. 75.

100 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. 1.

sence, and dismayed and exhausted by the ill suc-
cess of their last emigration, submitted to any
terms that the conquerors might impose.* Pro-
bus, and afterwards Diocletian,{ adopted the plan
of recruiting the exhausted provinces of the em-
pire by granting lands to the fugitive or captive
barbarians, and disposing of their superfluous num-
bers where they might be the least likely to be
dangerous tothe state; but such colonizations were
an insufficient vent for the population of the north,
and the ardent temper of the barbarians would not
always bend to the slow labours of agriculture.
During the vigorous reign of Diocletian, unable to
make an effectual impression on the Roman fron-
tiers, the Goths, the Vandals, the Gepide, the
Burgundians, and the Allemanni, wasted each
other’s strength by mutual hostilities, while the
subjects of the empire enjoyed the bloody specta-
cle, conscious that, whoever vanquished, they van-
quished the enemies of Rome.{

Under the reign of Constantine the Goths were
again formidable. Their strength had been re-
stored by a long peace, and a new generation had
arisen, which nolonger remembered the misfortunes
of ancient days.|| In two successive wars great
numbers of them were slain. Vanquished on every
side, they were driven into the mountains; and,
in the course of a severe campaign, above a hun-

* Gibbon, vol. ii. c. xii. p. 79, A. D. 277.

+ Id. c. xiii. p. 132, A. D. 296.

t Id. c. xii. p. 84.

§ Id. c. xiii. p. 130.
|| Id. c. xiv. p. 254, A. D. 322.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 101

dred thousand were computed to have perished
by cold and hunger.* Constantine adopted the
plan of Probus and his successors in granting lands
to those suppliant barbarians who were expelled
from their own country. Towards the end of his
reign, a competent portion, in the provinces of
Pannonia, Thrace, Macedonia, and Italy, was as-
signed for the habitation and subsistence of three
hundred thousand Sarmatians.f

The warlike Julian had to encounter and van-
quish new swarms of Franks and Allemanni, who,
emigrating from their German forests during the
cival wars of Constantine, settled in different
parts of Gaul, and made the scene of their de-
vastations three times more extensive than that
of their conquests.{ Destroyed and repulsed on
every side, they were pursued in five expeditions
into their own country;§ but Julian had con-
quered, as soon as he had penetrated into Ger-
many; and in the midst of that mighty hive,
which had sent out such swarms of people as to
keep the Roman world in perpetual dread, the
principal obstacles to his progress were almost
impassable roads and vast unpeopled forests.|

Though thus subdued and prostrated by the
victorious arms of Julian, this hydra-headed

* Gibbon, vol. iii. c. xviii. p. 125, A, D. 332,

+ Id. p. 127.

t Id. c. xix. p. 215, A. D. 356.

§ Id. p. 228, and vol. iv. c. xxii. p. 17, from A. D. 357 to
359.

|| Id. vol. iv. c. xxii, p. 17, and vol. ili, c. xix. p. 229.

102 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. i.

monster rose again after a few years; and the
firmness, vigilance and powerful genius of Valen-
tinian were fully called into action, in protecting
his dominions from the different irruptions of the
Allemanni, the Burgundians, the Saxons, the
Goths, the Quadi, and the Sarmatians.*

The fate of Rome was at length determined by
an irresistible emigration of the Huns from the
east and north, which precipitated on the empire
the whole body of the Goths;f and the continu-
ance of this powerful pressure on the nations of
Germany seemed to prompt them to the resolu-
tion of abandoning to the fugitives of Sarmatia
‘their woods and morasses, or at least of dis-
charging their superfluous numbers on the pro-
vinees of the Roman empire.{ An emigration of
' four hundred thousand persons issued from the
same coast of the Baltic, which had poured forth
the myriads of Cimbri and Teutones during the
vigour of the Republic.§ When this host was
destroyed by war and famine, other adventurers
succeeded. The Suevi, the Vandals, the Alani,
the Burgundians, passed the Rhine, never more
to retreat.|| The conquerors, who first settled,
were expelled or exterminated by new invaders.
Clouds of barbarians seemed to collect from all

* Gibbon vol. iv. c. xxv. from A. D. 364 to 375.
t Id. vol. iv. c. xxvi. p. 382, et seq. A. D. 376.
+ Id. vol. v. c. xxx. p- 213.

§ Id. p. 214. A.D. 406.

| Id. p. 224,

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 103

parts of the northern hemisphere. Gathering
fresh darkness and terror as’.they. rolled on, the
congregated bodies at length obscured the sun of
Italy, and sunk the western world in night.

In two centuries from the flight of the Goths
across the Danube, barbarians of various’ names
and lineage had plundered and taken possession
of Thrace, Pannonia, Gaul, Britain, Spain, Africa,
and Italy.* The most horrible devastations and
an incredible destruction of the human species
accompanied these rapid conquests; and famine
and pestilence, which always march in the train
of war when it ravages with such inconsiderate
cruelty, raged in every part. of Europe. The his-
torians of the times, who beheld these scenes of
desolation, labour and are at a loss for expressions
to describe them; but, beyond the power of lan-
guage, the numbers and _ the destructive violence
of these barbarous invaders were evinced by the
total change which took place in the state. of
Europe.{ These tremendous effects, so long and
so deeply felt throughout the fairest portions of
the earth, may be traced in a great degree to the
‘simple cause of the superiority of the power of
population to the means of subsistence.

Machiavel, in the beginning of his History of
Florence, says, “ The people who inhabit the
« northern parts that lie between the Rhine and
“< the Danube, living in a healthful and prolific

* Robertson's Charles V. vol. i. sect, i. p. 7. 8vo. 1782.

¢ Id. p. 10, il, 12.

104 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. i.

‘* climate, often increase to such a degree, that
** vast numbers of them are forced to leave their
“native country and go in search of new habi-
‘tations. When any of those provinces begins
“to grow too populous and wants to disburden
“itself, the following method is observed. In
“the first place, it is divided into three parts,
‘* in each of which there is an equal portion of the
‘nobility and commonalty, the rich and the
“poor. After this they cast lots; and that
‘* division on which the lot falls, quits the coun-
“try and goes to seek its fortune, leaving the
** other two more room and liberty to enjoy their
** possessions at home. These emigrations proved
“* the destruction of the Roman Empire.”* Gibbon
is of opinion that Machiavel has represented these
emigrations too much as regular and concerted
measures ;f but I think it highly probable that

* storie Fiorentine Machiavelli, 1. i. p. 1, 2.

+ Gibbon, vol. i. c. ix. p 360. note. Paul Diaconus, from
whom it is supposed that Machiavel has taken this description,
writes thus:—Septentrionalis plaga quanto magis ab estu solis
remota est et nivali frigore gelida, tantd salubrior corporibus
hominum et propagandis gentibus magis coaptata. Sicut & con-
trario, omnis meridiana regio, quo solis est fervori vicinior, ed
morbis est abundantior, et educandis minus apta mortalibus, * * *
*** Multaque quoque ex ed, ed quod tantas mortalium turmas
germinat, quantas alere vix sufficit, sepe gentes egresse sunt, que
non solum partes Asiz, sed etiam maxime sibi contiguam Europam
afflixere. (De Gestis Longobardorum, 1. i. c. i.)

Intra hanc ergo constituti populi, dum in tantam multitudinem
pullulassent, ut jam simul habitare non valerent, in tres (ut fertur)
partes omnem catervam dividentes, quenam ex illis patriam esset

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 105

he had not erred much in this respect, and that
it was a foresight of the frequent necessity of
thus discharging their redundant population,
which gave occasion to that law among the Ger-
mans, taken notice of by Cesar and Tacitus, of
not permitting their cultivated lands to remain
longer than a year under the same possessors.*
The reasons, which Cesar mentions as being
assigned for this custom, seem to be hardly ade-
quate; but if we add to them the prospect of
emigration in the manner described by Machiavel,
the custom will appear to be highly useful, and
a double weight will be given to one of- the rea-
sons that Cesar mentions; namely, lest they
should be led, by being accustomed to one spot,
to exchange the toils of war for the business of
agriculture.f

Gibbon very justly rejects, with Hume and
Robertson, the improbable supposition that the
inhabitants of the north were far more numerous
formerly than at present;{ but he thinks himself
obliged at the same time to deny the strong ten-
dency to increase in the northern nations,{ as if

relictura, ut novas sedes exquirerent, sorte disquirunt. Igitur ea
pars, cui sors dederit genitale solum excedere exteraque arva sec-
tari, constitutis supra se duobus ducibus, [bore scilicet et Agione,
qui et Germani erant et juvenili etate floridi, ceterisque prestan-
tiores, ad exquirandas quas possint incolere terras, sedesque sta-
tuere, valedicentes suis simul et patrie, iter arripiunt. (C. ii.)

* De Bello Gallico, vi. 22. De Moribus German. s. xxvi.

+ De Bello Gallico, vi. 22.

¢ Gibbon, vol. i. c. ix. p. 361.

§ Id. p.. 348.

106 Checks to Population among the ancient, Bk. 1.

the two facts were necessarily connected. For
a careful distinction should always be made, be-
tween a redundant population and a population
actually great. The Highlands of Scotland are
probably more redundant in population than any
other part of Great Britian; and though it would
be admitting a palpable absurdity to allow that
the north of Europe, covered in early ages with
immense forests, and inhabited by a race of peo-
ple who supported themselves principally by
their herds and flocks,* was more populous in
those times than in its present state; yet the
facts detailed in the Decline and Fall of the Ro-
man Empire, or even the very slight sketch of
them that I have given, cannot rationally be ac-
counted for, without the supposition of a most
powerful tendency in these people to increase,
and to repair their repeated losses by the prolific
power of nature.

From the first irruption of the Cimbri, to the
final extinction of the western empire, the efforts
of the German nations to colonize or plunder
were unceasing.t| The numbers that were cut
off during this period by war and famine were
almost incalculable, and such as could not possibly
have been supported with undiminished vigour
by a country thinly peopled, unless the stream

* Tacitus de Moribus German. sect. v.; Caesar de Bell. Gall.
vi. 22.

+ Cesar found in Gaul a most fotihidable colony under Ario-
vistus, and a general dread prevailing that in a. few years all the
Germans would pass the Rhine. De Bell. Gall. i, 31.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 107

had been supplied by a spring of very extra-
ordinary power.

Gibbon describes the labours of Valentinian in
securing the Gallic frontier against the Germans;
an enemy, he says, whose strength was renewed
by a stream of daring volunteers which inces-
santly flowed from the most distant tribes of the
north.* An easy adoption of strangers was pro-
bably a mode, by which some of the German
nations renewed their strength so suddenly,{
after the most destructive defeats; but this ex-
planation only removes the difficulty a little fur-
ther off. It makes the earth rest upon the
tortoise; but does not tell us on what the tortoise
rests. We may still ask what northern reservoir
supplied this incessant stream of daring adven-
turers? Montesquieu’s solution of the problem
will, I think, hardly be admitted. The swarms
of barbarians which issued formerly from the
north, appear no more, he says, at present; and
the reason he gives is, that the violence of the
Romans had driven the people of the south into
the north, who, as long as this force continued,
remained there; but as soon as it was weakened,
spread themselves again over every country.

The same phenomenon appeared after the con-
quests and tyrannies of Charlemagne and _ the
subsequent dissolution of his empire; and if a
prince, he says, in the present days were to make

* Gibbon, vol. iv. c. xxv, p. 283.
+ Id. ib. note.

108 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. 1.

similar ravages in Europe, the nations driven into
the north, and resting on the limits of the uni-
verse,* would there make a stand till the moment
when they would inundate or conquer Europe a
third time. In a note he observes, ‘“‘ we see to
what the famous question is reduced—why the
north is no longer so fully peopled as in former
times ?”

If the famous question, or rather the answer to
it, be reduced to this, it is reduced to a miracle;
for without some supernatural mode of obtaining
food, how these collected nations could support
themselves in such barren regions for so longa
period as during the vigour of the Roman empire,
it is a little difficult to conceive; and one can
hardly help smiling at the bold figure of these
prodigious crowds making their last determined
stand on the limits of the universe, and living,
as we must suppose, with the most patient forti-
tude on air and ice for some hundreds of years,
till they could return to their own homes and re-
sume their usual more substantial mode of subsis-
tence.

The whole difficulty, however, is at once re-
moved, if we apply to the German nations at that
time a fact which is so generally known to have
occurred in America, and suppose that, when not
checked by wars and famine, they increased at
a rate that would double their numbers in twenty-
five or thirty years. The propriety, and even the

* Les nations adossées aux limites de l’univers y tiendroient ferme.
Grandeur et Décad. des Rom. c. xvi. p. 187.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 109

necessity, of applying this rate of increase to the
inhabitants of ancient Germany will strikingly
appear from that most valuable picture of their
manners which has been left us by Tacitus. He
describes them as not inhabiting cities, or even
of admitting of contiguous settlements. Every
person surrounds his house with a vacant space;*
a circumstance, which besides its beneficial effect
as a security from fire, is strongly calculated to
prevent the generation, and check the ravages, of
epidemics. ‘‘ They content themselves almost
universally with onewife. Theirmatrimonial bond
is strict and severe, and their manners in this
respect deserving of the highest praise.t They
live in a state of well-guarded chastity, corrupted
by no seducing spectacles or convivial incite-
ments. Adultery is extremely rare, and no in-
dulgence is shewn to a prostitute. Neither
beauty, youth, nor riches, can procure her a hus-
band: for none there looks on vice with a smile,
or calls mutual seduction the way of the world.
To limit the increase of children, or put to death
any of the husband’s blood, is accounted infa-
mous; and virtuous manners have there more
efficacy than good laws elsewhere.{ Every
mother suckles her own children, and does not
deliver them into the hands of servants and
nurses. The youths partake late of the sexual

* Tacitus de Moribus Germ. s. xvi.
+ Id. s. xviii.
t Id. s. xix.

110 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. i.

intercourse, and hence pass the age of puberty
unexhausted. Nor are the virgins brought for-
ward. Thesamematurity, the same full growth, is
required; the sexes unite equally matched and
robust, and the children inherit the vigour of
their parents. The more numerous are a man’s
kinsmen and relations, the more comfortable is
his old age; nor is it any advantage to be child-
less.”* 2

With these manners, and a habit of enterprise
and emigration, which would naturally remove
all fears about providing for a family, it is diffi-
cult to conceive a society with a stronger prin-
ciple of increase; and we see at once that pro-
lific source of successive armies and colonies,
against which the force of the Roman empire so
long struggled with difficulty, and under which it
ultimately sunk. It is not probable that, for two
periods together, or even for one, the population
within the confines of Germany ever doubled
itself in twenty-five years. Their perpetual
wars, the rude state of agriculture, and particu-
larly the very strange custom adopted by most
of the tribes of marking their barriers by exten-
sive deserts,f would prevent any very great
actual increase of numbers. At no one period
could the country be called well-peopled, though
it was often redundant in population. They
abandoned their immense forests to the exercise

* Tacitus de Moribus Germ. s. xx.
‘++ Cesar de Bell. Gall. vi. 23.

—

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 111

of hunting, employed in pasturage the most con-
siderable part of their lands, bestowed on the
small remainder a rude and careless cultivation,
and when the return of famine severely admo-
nished them of the insufficiency of their scanty re-
sources, they accused the sterility of a country
which refused to supply the multitude of its in-
habitants;* but instead of clearing their forests,
draining their swamps, and rendering their soil
fit to support an extended population, they found
it more congenial to their martial habits and im-
patient dispositions, “‘ to go in quest of food, of
plunder, or of glory," into other countries.
These adventurers either gained lands for them-
selves by their swords or were cut off by the
various accidents of war; were received into the
Roman armies or dispersed over the Roman ter-
ritory; or, perhaps, having relieved their country
by their absence, returned home laden with spoils,
and ready, after having recruited their diminished
nuinbers, for fresh expeditions. The succession of
human beings appears tohave been most rapid; and
as fast as some were disposed of in colonies, or
mowed down by thescythe of warand famine, others
rose in increased numbers to supply their place.
According to this view of the subject, the
North could never have been exhausted; and
when Dr. Robertson, describing the calamities of
these invasions, says, that they did not cease till
the North, by pouring forth successive swarms,

* Gibbon, vol. i. c. ix. p. 360. t Id. vol, i. c. x. p. 417.

112 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. i.

was drained of people, and could no longer fur-
nish instruments of destruction,* he will appear
to have fallen into the very error which he had
before laboured to refute, and to speak as if the
northern nations were actually very populous.
For they must have been so, if the number of
their inhabitants at any one period had been suf-
ficient, notwithstanding the slaughter of war, to
people in such a manner Thrace, Pannonia, Gaul,
Spain, Africa, Italy and England, as in some
parts not to leave many traces of their former
inhabitants. The period of the peopling of these
countries, however, he himself mentions as two
hundred years;{ and in such a time new genera-
tions would arise that would more than supply
every vacancy.

The true cause which put astop to the con-
tinuance of northern emigration, was the impos-
sibility any longer of making an impression on
the most desirable countries of Europe. They
were then inhabited by the descendants of the
bravest and most enterprising of the German
tribes; and it was not probable that they should
so soon degenerate from the valour of their an-
cestors, as to suffer their lands to be wrested
from them by inferior numbers and inferior skill,
though perhaps superior hardihood.

Checked for a time by the bravery and poverty
of their neighbours by land, the enterprising spirit
and overflowing numbers of the Scandinavian na-

* Robertson’s Charles V. vol. i. s. i. p. 11.
7 id. p. 7.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 113

tions soon found vent by sea. Feared before the
reign of Charlemagne, they were repelled with
difficulty by the care and vigour of that great
prince; but during the distractions of the empire
under his feeble successors, they spread like a
devouring flame over Lower Saxony, Friezeland,
Holland, Flanders, and the banks of the Rhine as
far as Mentz.

After having long ravaged the coasts, they pe-
netrated into the heart of France, pillaged and
burnt her fairest towns, levied immense tributes
on her monarchs, and at length obtained by grant
one of the finest provinces in the kingdom. They
made themselves even dreaded in Spain, Italy
and Greece, spreading every where desolation
and terror. Sometimes they turned their arms
against each other, as if bent on their own mutual
destruction; at other times they transported co-
lonies to unknown or uninhabited countries, as if
they were willing to repair in one place the horrid
destruction of the human race occasioned by their
furious ravages in another.*

The mal-administration and civil wars of the
Saxon kings of England produced the same effect
as the weakness which followed the reign of Charle-
magne in France;} and for two hundred years the
British isles were incessantly ravaged, and often
in part subdued, by these northern invaders.
During the eighth, ninth and tenth centuries, the

* Mallet, Introd. 1 I Histoire de Dannemarc, tom, i. c, x,.p. 221,
223, 224. 12mo. 1766.

¢ Id. p. 226.

VOL, I. I

114 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. i.

sea was covered with their vessels from one end
of Europe to the other;* and the countries now
the most powerful in arts and arms were the
prey of their constant depredations. The grow-
ing and consolidating strength of these countries
at length removed all further prospect of success
from such invasions.t| The nations of the north
were slowly and reluctantly compelled to confine
themselves within their natural limits and to ex-
change their pastoral manners, and with them the
peculiar facilities of plunder and emigration which
they afforded, for the patient labours and slow re-
turns of trade and agriculture. But the slowness
of these returns necessarily effected an important
change in the manners of the people.

In ancient Scandinavia, during the time of its
constant wars and emigrations, few, or none pro-
bably, were ever deterred from marrying by the
fear of not being able to provide fora family. In
modern Scandinavia, on the contrary, the frequency
of the marriage union is continually checked
by the most imperious and justly-founded appre-
hensions of this kind. This is most particularly
the case in Norway, as I shall have’ occasion to
remark in another place; but the same fears ope-

* Mallet, Introd. 4 Histoire de Dannemarc, tom. i. c. x. p.
221.

+ Perhaps the civilized world could not be considered as per-
fectly secure from another northern or eastern inundation, till the
total change in the art of war, by the introduction of gunpowder,
gave to improved skill and knowledge the decided advantage over
physical force.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the_North of Europe. 115

rate in a greater or less degree, though every
where with considerable force, in all parts of Eu-
rope. Happily the more tranquil state of the mo-
dern world does not demand such rapid supplies
of human beings; and the prolific powers of na-
ture cannot therefore be so generally called into
action.

Mallet, in the excellent account of the northern
nations which he has prefixed to his History of
Denmark, observes that he had not been able to
discover any proofs that their emigrations pro-
_ceeded from want of room at home;* and one of the
reasons which he gives, is, that after a great emi-
gration the countries often remained quite deserted
and unoccupied fora long time.t But instances
of this kind, I am inclined to think, were rare,
though they might occasionally happen. With
the habits of enterprise and emigration which pre-
vailed in those days, a whole people would some-
times move in search of a more fertile territory.
The lands, which they before occupied, must of
necessity be left desert for a time; and if there
were any thing particularly ineligible in the soil
or situation, which the total emigration of the peo-
ple would seem to imply, it might be more con-
genial to the temper of the surrounding barbarians,
to provide for themselves better by their swords
than to occupy immediately these rejected lands.
Such total emigrations proved the unwillingness

* Hist. Dan. tom. i. c. ix. p. 206.
t Id. p. 205, 206.
THD

116 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. 1.

of the society to divide; but by no means that
they were not straitened for room-and food .at
home. .
The other reason, which Mallet gives, is that in
Saxony, as well as Scandinavia, vast tracts of land
lay in their original uncultivated state, having
never been grubbed up or cleared; and that, from
the descriptions of Denmark in those times, it ap-
peared that the coasts alone were peopled, . but
the interior parts formed one vast forest.* It is.
evident that he here falls into the common error
of confounding a superfluity of inhabitants with
great actual. population. The pastoral manners
of the people and their habits of war and enter-
prise prevented them from clearing and cultivating
their lands; and then these very-forests, by re-
straining the sources of subsistence within very
narrow bounds, contributed to superfiuity of num-
bers; that is, to a population beyond what the
scanty supplies of the country could support.
’ There is another cause not often attended to,
why poor, cold and thinly-peopled countries, tend
generally to a superfluity of inhabitants, and are
strongly prompted toemigration. In.warmer and

* Hist. Dan. tom. i. c. ix. p. 207.

+ Nec arare terram aut expectare annum tam facile persuaseris,
quam vocare hostes et vulnera mereri; pigrum quinimo et iners vi-
detur sudore acquirere quod possis sanguine parare. Tacitus de
Mor. Germ. Nothing, indeed, in the history of mankind, is more
evident than the extreme difficulty with which habits are changed;
and no argument therefore can be more fallacious than to infer
that those people are not pinched with want, who do not make a
proper use of their lands.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Etirope. 117

more populous countries, particularly. those
abounding in great towns and manufactures, an
insufficient supply of food can seldom continue
long without producing epidemics either in the
shape of great and ravaging plagues, or of less
violent, though more constant, sicknesses. In
poor, cold and thinly-peopled countries, on the
contrary, from the antiseptic quality of the air,
the misery arising from insufficient or bad food
may continue for a considerable time without pro-
ducing these effects; and consequently this pow-
erful stimulus to emigration continues to operate
for a much longer period.*

I would by no means, however, be understood
to say, that the northern nations never undertook
any expeditions, unless prompted by straitened
food or circumstances at home. Mallet relates,
what was probably true, that it was their common
custom to hold an assembly every spring, for the
purpose of considering in what quarter they should
make war;f and among a people who nourished
so strong a passion for war, and who considered
the right of the strongest as a right divine, occa-
sions for it would never be wanting. Besides

* Epidemics return more or less frequently, according to their
various soils, situations, air, &c. Hence some return yearly, as in
Egypt and Constantinople; others once in four or five years, as
about Tripoli and Aleppo; others, scarce once in ten, twelve or
thirteen years, as in England; others not in less than twenty
years, as in Norway and the Northern Islands. Short, History of
Air, Seasons, &c. vol. ii. p. 344.

+ Hist. Dan. c. ix. p. 209.

118 Checks to Population among the ancient Bk. 1.

this pure and disinterested love of war and en-
terprise, civil dissensions, the pressure of a vic-
torious enemy, a wish for a milder climate, or
other causes, might sometimes prompt to emigra-
tion; but, in a general view of the subject, I can-
not help considering this period of history as af-
fording a very striking illustration of the principle
of population; a principle, which appears to me
to have given the original impulse and spring of
action, to have furnished the inexhaustible re-
sources, and often prepared the immediate causes
of that rapid succession of adventurous irruptions
and emigrations, which occasioned the fall of the
Roman empire; and afterwards, pouring from the
thinly-peopled countries of Denmark and Norway
for above two hundred years, ravaged and overran
a great part of Europe. Without the supposition
of a tendency to increase almost as great as in the
United States of America, the facts appear to
me not to be accounted for;* and with such a sup-
position, we cannot be at a loss to name the checks
to the actual population, when we read the disgust-
ing details of those unceasing wars, and of that
prodigal waste of human life, which marked these
barbarous periods.

* Gibbon, Robertson and Mallet seem all rather to speak of
Jornandes’s expression vagina nationum as incorrect and exagge-
rated; but to me it appears exactly applicable, though the other
expression, officina gentium, at least their translation of it, store-
house of nations, is not accurate.

Ex hac igitur Scanzid insuld, quasi officind gentium, aut certé

velut vagina nationum egressi, &c. Jornandes de Rebus Geticis,
p. 83.

Ch. vi. Inhabitants of the North of Europe. 119

Inferior checks would undoubtedly concur; but
we may safely pronounce, that among the shep-
herds of the North of Europe war and famine were
the principal checks that kept the population
down to the level of their scanty means of subsis-
tence.

CHAP. VII.

Of the Checks to Population among modern Pastoral
Nations.

Tue pastoral tribes of Asia, by living in tents
and moveable huts, instead of fixed habitations,
are still less connected with their territory than
the shepherds of the North of Europe. Thecamp,
and not the soil, is the native country of the ge-
nuine Tartar. When the forage of a certain dis-
trict is consumed the tribe makes a regular march
to fresh pastures. In the summer it advances
towards the north, in the winter returns again to
the south; and thus in a time of most profound
peace acquires the practical and familiar know-
ledge of one of the most difficult operations of
war. Such habits would strongly tend to diffuse
among these wandering tribes the spirit of emi-
gration and conquest. The thirst of rapine, the
fear of a too-powerful neighbour, or the inconve-
nience of scanty pastures, have in all ages been
sufficient causes to urge the hordes of Scythia
boldly to advance into unknown countries, where
they might hope to find a more plentiful subsistence
or a less formidable enemy.*

In all their invasions, but more particularly
when directed against the civilized empires ef the

* Gillon, vol. iv. c. xxvi. p- 348.

Ch. vii. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 121

south, the Scythian shepherds have been uniformly
actuated by a most savage and destructive spirit.
When the Moguls had subdued the northern pro-
vinces of China, it was proposed, in calm and de-
liberate council, to exterminate all the inhabitants
of that populous country, that the vacant land
might be converted to the pasture of cattle. The
execution of this horrid design was prevented by
the wisdom and firmness of a Chinese mandarin ;*
but the bare proposal of it exhibits a striking pic-
ture, not only of the inhuman manner in which
the rights of conquest were abused, but of the
powerful force of habit among nations of shepherds,
and the consequent difficulty of the transition
from the pastoral to the agricultural state.

To pursue, even in the most cursory manner,
the tide of emigration and conquest in Asia, the
rapid increase of some tribes, and the total extinc-
tion of others, would lead much too far. During
the periods of the formidable irruptions of the Huns,
the wide-extended invasions of the Moguls and
Tartars, the sanguinary conquests of Attila, Zingis
Khan and Tamerlane, and the dreadful convulsions
which attended the dissolution as well as the for-
mation of their empires, the checks to population
are but too obvious. In reading of the devasta-
tions of the human race in those times, when the
slightest motive of caprice or convenience often in-
volved a whole people in indiscriminate massacre, |

* Gibbon, vol. vi. c. xxxiv. p. 54.
t Id. p, 55.

122 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

instead of looking for the causes which prevented
a further progress in population, we can only be
astonished at the force of that principle of increase,
which could furnish fresh harvests of human beings
for the scythe of each successive conqueror.
Our inquiries will be more usefully directed
to the present state of the Tartar nations, and the
ordinary checks to their increase, when not under
the influence of these violent convulsions.

The immense country, inhabited at present by
those descendants of the Moguls and Tartars,
who retain nearly the. same manners as their an-
cestors, comprises in it almost all the middle
regions of Asia, and possesses the advantage of a
very fine and temperate climate. The soil is in
general of great natural fertility. There are com-
paratively but few genuine deserts. The wide-
extended plains without a shrub, which have
sometimes received that appellation, and which
the Russians call steppes, are covered with a lux-
urlant grass, admirably fitted for the pasture of
numerous herds and flocks. The principal defect
of this extensive country is a want of water; but
it is said that the parts which are supplied with
this necessary article, would be sufficient for the
support of four times the number of its present
inhabitants, if it were properly cultivated.* Every
Orda, or tribe, has a particular canton belonging
to it, containing both its summer and winter pas-
tures; and the population of this vast territory,

* Geneal. Hist. of Tartars, vol. ii. sec, i. Svo. 1730.

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 123

whatever it may be, is probably distributed over
its surface nearly in proportion to the degree of
actual fertility in the different districts.

Volney justly describes this necessary distri-
bution in speaking of the Bedoweens of Syria.
“In the barren cantons, that is, those which are
ill furnished with plants, the tribes are feeble
‘and very distant from each other, as in the de-
“‘ sert of Suez, that of the Red Sea, and the in-
“ terior part of the Great Desert. When the soil
“is better covered, as between Damascus and
*“‘ the Euphrates, the tribes are stronger and less
*« distant. And in the cultivable cantons, as the
«« Pachalic of Aleppo, the Hauran, and the coun-
“try of Gaza, the encampments are numerous
“and near each other.”* Such a distribution of
inhabitants, according to the quantity of food
which they can obtain in the actual state of their
industry and habits, may be applied to Grand
Tartary, as well as to Syria and Arabia, and is,
in fact, equally applicable to the whole earth,
though the commerce of civilized nations prevents
it from being so obvious as in the more +a
stages of society.

The Mahometan Tartars, whoinhabit the western
parts of Grand Tartary, cultivate some of their
lands, but in so slovenly and insufficient a manner
as not to afford a principal source of subsistence.f
The slothful and warlike genius of the barbarian
every where prevails, and he does not easily re-

* Voy. de Volney, tom. i. ch. xxii. p. 351. 8vo. 1787.
+ Geneal. Hist, Tart. vol. ii. p. $82.

124 _ Of the Checks to Population Bk.1i.

concile himself to obtaining by labour what he.
can hope to acquire by rapine. When the annals
of Tartary are not marked by any signal wars
and revolutions, its domestic peace and industry
are constantly interrupted by petty contests and
mutual invasions for the sake of plunder. The
Mahometan Tartars are said to live almost en-
tirely by robbing and preying upon their nel
bours, as well in peace as in war.*

The Usbecks, who possess as masters the ki
dom of Chowarasm, leave to their tributary sub-
jects, the Sarts and Turkmans, the finest pastures
of their country, merely because their neighbours
on that side are too poor or too vigilant to give
them hopes of successful plunder. Rapine is
their principal resource. They are perpetually:
making incursions into the territories of the Per-
sians, and of the Usbecks of Great Bucharia; and
neither peace nor truce can restrain them, as the
slaves and other valuable effects which they carry’
off form the whole of their riches. The Usbecks.
and their subjects the Turkmans are perpetually
at variance; and their jealousies, fomented often
by the princes of the reigning house, keep the
country in a constant state of intestine commo-
tion.t The Turkmans are always at war with
the Curds and the Arabs, who often come and
break the horns of their herds, and carry away.
their wives and daughters. '

* Geneal. Hist. Tart, vol. ii. p- 390.
7 Id. p. 430, 431,
¢ Id. p. 426.

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 125

The Usbecks of-Great Bucharia are reckoned
the most civilized of all the Mahometan Tartars,
yet are not much inferior to the rest in their spirit
of rapine.* They are always at war with the
Persians, and laying waste the fine plains of the
province of Chorasan. Though the country which
they possess is of the greatest natural fertility,
and. some of the remains of the ancient inhabi-
tants practise the peaceful arts of trade and agri-
culture; yet neither the aptitude of the soil, nor
the example which they have before them, can
induce them to change their ancient habits; and
they would rather pillage, rob, and kill their
neighbours, than apply themselves to improve the
benefits which nature so liberally offers them.}

The Tartars of the Casatshia Orda in Turkestan
live in a state of continual warfare with their
neighbours to the north and east. In the winter
they make their incursions towards the Kalmucks,
who, about that time, go to scour the frontiers of
Great Bucharia and the parts to the south of
their country. -On the other side they perpetu-
ally incommode the Cosacks of the Yaik and the
Nogai Tartars. In the summer they cross the
mountains of Eagles, and make inroads into Si-
beria. . And though they are often very ill treated
in these incursions, and the whole of their plun-
der is not equivalent to what they might obtain
with very little labour from their lands, yet they
choose rather to expose themselves to the thou-

* Geneal. Hist. Tart. vol. ii. p. 459.
+ Id. p. 455,

126 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

sand fatigues and dangers necessarily attendant
on such a life, than apply themselves seriously to
agriculture.*

The mode of life among the other tribes of
Mahometan Tartars presents the same uniform
picture, which it would be tiresome to repeat,
and for which therefore I refer the reader to the
Genealogical History of the Tartars and its valu-
able notes. The conduct of the author of this
history himself, a Chan of Chowarasm, affords a
curious example of the savage manner in which
the wars of policy, of revenge, or plunder, are
carried on in these countries. His invasions of
Great Bucharia were frequent; and. each expe-
dition was signalized by the ravage of provinces
and the utter ruin and destruction of towns and
villages. When at any time the number of his
prisoners impeded his motions, he made no scruple
to kill them on the spot. Wishing to reduce the
power of the Turkmans who were tributary to
him, he invited all the principal people to a so-
lemn feast, and had them massacred to the num-
ber of two thousand. He burnt and destroyed
their villages with the most unsparing cruelty,
and committed such devastations that the effect
of them returned on their authors, and the army
of the victors suffered severely from dearth.

The Mahometan Tartars in general hate trade,
and make it their business to spoil all the mer-

* Geneal. Hist. Tart. vol. ii. p. 573, et seq.
+ Id. vol. i. ch. xii.

Ch. vii. | among modern Pastoral Nations. 127

chants who fall into their hands.* The only com-
merce which is countenanced, is the commerce in
slaves. These form a principal part of the booty
which they carry off in their predatory incursions,
and are considered as a chief source of. their
riches. Those which they have occasion for them-
selves, either for the attendance on their herds,
or as wives and concubines, they keep, and the
rest they sell.t The Circassian and Daghestan
Tartars, and the other tribes in the neighbour-
hood of Caucasus, living in a poor and mountain-
ous country, and on that account less subject to
invasion, generally overflow with inhabitants;
and when they cannot obtain slaves in the com-
mon way, steal from one another, and even sell
their own wives and children.[ This trade in
slaves, so general among the Mahometan Tartars,
may be one of the causes of their constant wars;
as, when a prospect of a plentiful supply for this
kind of traffic offers itself, neither peace nor al-
liance can restrain them.{

The heathen Tartars, the Kalmucks and Mo-

* Geneal. Hist. Tart. vol. ii. p. 412.

t Id. vol. ii. p. 413.

{ Id. p. 413, 414, and ch, xii.

§ “ They justify it as lawful to have many wives, because they
“ say they bring us many children, which we can sell for ready-
** money, or exchange for necessary conveniencies ; yet when they
** have not wherewithal to maintain them, they hold it a piece of
** charity to murder infants new-born, as also they do such as are
*« sick and past recovery, because they say they free them from a
“‘ great deal of misery.’ Sir John Chardin’s Travels, Harris’s
Col. b. iii, c. ii, p. 865.

-

128 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

guls, do not make use of slaves, and are said in
general to lead a much more peaceable and harm-
less life, contenting themselves with the produce
of their herds and flocks, which form their sole.
riches. They rarely make war for the sake of
plunder; and seldom invade the territory of their
neighbours, unlest to revenge a prior attack.
They are not however without destructive wars.
The inroads of the Mahometan Tartars oblige
them to constant defence and retaliation; and
feuds subsist between the kindred tribes of the
Kalmucks and Moguls, which, fomented by the
artful policy of the emperor of China, are carried
on with such animosity as to threaten the entire
destruction of one or other of these nations.*

The Bedoweens of Arabia and Syria do not live
in greater tranquillity than the inhabitants of
Grand Tartary. The very nature of the pastoral
state seems to furnish perpetual occasions for war..
The pastures, which a tribe uses at one period,
form but a small part of its possessions. A large
range of territory is successively occupied in the
course of the year; and, as the whole of this is
absolutely necessary for the annual subsistence of
the tribe, and is considered as appropriated, every
violation of it, though the tribe may be at a great
distance, is held to be a just cause of war.f Al-.

* Geneal. Hist. Tart. vol. ii. p. 545.

+ Ils se disputeront la terre inculte, comme parmi nous les ci-°
toyens se disputent les héritages. Ainsi ils trouveront de fré-
quentes occasions de guerre pour la nourriture de leurs bestiaux,
&c, * * * * ils auront autant de choses 4 régler par le droit des

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 129

liances and kindred make these wars more ge-
neral. When blood is shed, more must expiate
it; and as such accidents have multiplied in the
lapse of years, the greatest part of the tribes have
quarrels between them and live in a state of per-
petual hostility.* In the times which preceded
Mahomet, seventeen hundred battles are recorded
by tradition; and a partial truce of two months,
which was religiously kept, might be considered,
according to a just remark of Gibbon, as sstill
more strongly expressive of their general habits of
anarchy and warfare.t

The waste of life from such habits might alone
appear sufficient to repress their population; but
probably their effect is still greater in the fatal
check which they give to every species of indus-
try, and particularly to that, the object of which
is to enlarge the means of subsistence. Even the
construction of a well or a reservoir of water re-
quires some funds and labour in advance; and
war may destroy in one day the work of many
months and the resources of a whole year.{ The
evils seem mutually to produce each other. A
scarcity of subsistence might at first perhaps give
occasion to the habits of war; and the habits of
war in return powerfully contribute to narrow the
means of subsistence.

gens qu’ils en auront peu a décider par le droit civil. Montes.
Esprit des Loix, 1. xviii. c. xii.

* Voy. de Volney, tom. i. c. xxii. p. 361, 362, 363.

t Gibbon, vol. ix. c.1. p. 238, 239.

t Voy. de Volney, tom. i. c. xxiii. p. 353.

VOL. I. K

130 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1)

Some tribes, from the nature of the deserts in
which they live, seem to be necessarily con-
demned to a pastoral life ;* but even those which
inhabit soils proper for agriculture, have but little
temptation to practise this art, while surrounded
by marauding neighbours. The peasants of the
frontier provinces of Syria, Persia and Siberia,
exposed, as they are, to the constant incursions
of a devastating enemy, do not lead a life that is
to be envied by the wandering Tartar or Arab.
A certain degree of security is perhaps still more
necessary than richness of soil, to encourage the
change from the pastoral to the agricultural state;
and where this cannot be attained, the sedentary
labourer is more exposed to the vicissitudes of
fortune than he who leads a wandering life, and
carries all his property with him.t Under. the
feeble, yet oppressive government of the Turks,
it is not uncommon for peasants to desert their
villages and betake themselves to a pastoral state,
in which they expect to be better able to escape
from the plunder of their Turkish masters and
Arab neighbours. {

It may be said, however, of the shepherd, as of
the hunter, that if want alone could effect a change
of habits, there would be few pastoral tribes re-
maining. Notwithstanding the constant wars of
the Bedoween Arabs, and the other checks to
their increase from the hardships of their mode

* Voy. de Volney, tom. i. c, xxxiii, p. 350.
t Id. p. 354.
t Id. p. 350.

Ch. vil. among modern Pastoral Nations. 131

of life, their population presses so hard against
the limits of their food, that they are compelled
from necessity to a degree of abstinence, which
nothing but early and constant habit could enable
the human constitution to support. According to
Volney, the lower classes of the Arabs live in a
state of habitual misery and famine.* The tribes
of the desert deny that the religion of Mahomet
was made for them. ‘ For how,” they say, ‘“can
we perform ablutions when we have no water;
how can we give alms when we have no. riches;
or what occasion can there be to fast during the
month of Ramadan, when we fast all the year?” f

The power and riches of a Chaik consist in the
number of his tribe... He considers it therefore
as his interest to’ encourage population, without
reflecting how it may be supported. His own
consequence greatly depends on:a numerous pro-
geny and kindred;{ and in a state of. society
where power generally procures subsistence, each
individual family derives strength and importance
from its numbers: These ideas act strongly as a
bounty upon population; and, co-operating with
a spirit of generosity which almost produces a
community of goods,{ contribute to push it to its
utmostverge, and to depress the body of the aoe
in the most rigid poverty.

The habits of polygamy, where there have been

* Voy. de Volney, tom. i. c. xxiii. p. 359.
t Id. p. 380.
t Id. p. 366.
§ Id. p. 378,

bo

K

132 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

losses of men in war, tend perhaps also to produce
thesameeffect. Niebuhr observes, that polygamy
multiplies families till many of their branches sink
intothe most wretched misery.* The descendants
of Mahomet are found in great numbers all over
the east, and many of them in extreme poverty.
A Mahometan is in some degree obliged to poly-
gamy from a principle of obedience to his prophet,
who makes one of the greatest duties of man to
consist in procreating children to glorify the
Creator. Fortunately, individual interest corrects
in some degree, as in many other instances, the
absurdity of the legislator; and the poor Arab is
obliged to proportion his religious obedience to the
scantiness of his resources. Yet still the direct
encouragements to population are extraordinarily
great; and nothing can place in a more striking
point of view the futility and absurdity of such
encouragements than the present state of those
countries. It is universally agreed that, if their
population be not less than formerly, it is indubi-
tably not greater; and it follows as a direct con-
sequence, that the great increase of some families
has absolutely pushed others out of existence.
Gibbon, speaking of Arabia, observes, that “ The
** measure of population is regulated by the means
‘< of subsistence; and the inhabitants of this vast
“‘ peninsula might be out-numbered by the sub-
“jects of a fertile and industrious province.”

* Niebuhr’s Travels, vol. ii. c. v. p. 207.
T It is rather a curious circumstance, that a truth so important,
which has been stated and acknowledged by so many authors,

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 133

Whatever may be the encouragements to marriage,
this measure cannot be passed. While the Arabs
retain their present manners, and the country re-
mains in its present state of cultivation, the pro-
mise of Paradise to every man who had ten chil-
dren would but little increase their numbers,
though it might greatly increase their misery.
Direct encouragements to population have no ten-
dency whatever to change these manners and
promote cultivation. Perhaps indeed they have
a contrary tendency; as the constant uneasiness
from poverty and want which they occasion must
encourage the marauding spirit,* and multiply
the occasions of war.

Among the Tartars, who from living in a more
fertile soil are comparatively richer in cattle, the
plunder to be obtained in predatory incursions is
greater than among the Arabs. And as the con-
tests are more bloody from the superior strength
of the tribes, and the custom of making slaves is
general, the loss of numbers in war will be more
considerable. These two circumstances united
enable some hordes of fortunate robbers to live in
a state of plenty, in comparison of their less en-
terprising neighbours. Professor Pallas gives a
particular account of two wandering tribes sub-

should so rarely have been pursued to its consequences. People
are not every day dying of famine. How then is the population
regulated to the measure of the means of subsistence ?

* Aussi arrive-t’il chaque jour des accidens, des enlévemens de
bestiaux ; et cette guerre de maraude est une de celles qui occupent
davantage les Arabes. Voy. de Volney, tom. i. c. xxiii. p. 364.

134 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

ject to Russia, one of which supports itself almost
entirely by plunder, and the other lives as peace-
ably as the restlessness of its neighbours will
admit. | It. may be curious to trace the different
checks to population that result from these diffe-
rent habits.

The Kirgisiens, according to Pallas,* live at
their ease in comparison of the other wandering
tribes that areosubject to Russia. The spirit of
liberty and independence which reigns amongst
them, joined to the facility with which they can
procure a flock sufficient for their maintenance,
prevents any of them from entering into the ser-
vice of others. They all expect to be treated as
brothers; and the rich therefore are obliged to
use slaves. It may be asked what are the causes
which prevent the lower classes of people from in-
creasing till they become poor?

Pallas has not informed us how far vicious cus-
toms with respect to women, or the restraints on
marriage from the fear of a family may have con-
tributed to this effeet; but perhaps. the descrip-
tion which he gives of their civil constitution and
licentious spirit of rapine, may alone be almost
sufficient to account for it. . The Chan cannot ex-
ercise his authority but through the medium of a
council of principal persons, chosen by the people;

* Not having been able to procure the work of Pallas on the
history of the Mongol nations, I have here made use of a general
abridgment of the works of the Russian travellers, in 4 vols. oct.
published at Berne and Lausanne in 178] and 1784, entitled Dé-
couvertes Russes, tom. iii. p. 399.

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 135

and even the decrees thus confirmed are continually
violated with impunity.* Though the plunder
and capture of persons, of cattle and of merchan-
dise, which the Kirgisiens exercise on their neigh-
bours the Kazalpacs, the Bucharians, the Persians,
the Truchemens, the Kalmucks and the Russians,
are prohibited by their laws, yet no person is
afraid to avow them. On the contrary, they
boast of their successes in this way as of the most
honourable enterprises. Sometimes they pass
their frontiers alone to seek their fortune, some-
times collect in troops under the command of an
able chief, and pillage entire caravans. A great
number of Kirgisiens, in exercising this rapine,
are either killed or taken into slavery; but about
this the nation troubles itself very little. When
these ravages are committed by private adventu-
rers, each retains what. he has taken, whether
cattle or women. The male slaves and the mer-
chandise are sold to the rich, or to foriegn
traders.f

With these habits, in addition to their national
wars, which from the fickle and turbulent disposi-
tion of the tribe are extremely frequent,{ we may
easily conceive that the checks to population from
violent causes may be so powerful as nearly to
preclude all others. Occasional famines may
sometimes attack them in their wars of devasta-

* Découv. Russ. tom. iii, p. 389.
+ Id. p. 396, 397, 398.
{ Id..p, 378.

136 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

tion,* their fatiguing predatory incursions, or
from long droughts and mortality of cattle; but
in the common course of things the approach of
poverty would be the signal for a new marauding
expedition; and the poor Kirgisien would either
return with sufficient to support him, or lose his
life or liberty in the attempt. He who deter-
mines to be rich or die, and does not scruple the
means, cannot long live poor.

The Kalmucks, who before their emigration in
1771 inhabited the fertile steppes of the Wolga
under the protection of Russia, lived in general
in a different manner. They were not often en-
gaged in any very bloody wars;} and the power
of the Chan being absolute,{ and the civil admi-
nistration better regulated than among the Kir-
gisiens, the marauding expeditions of private ad-
venturers were checked. The Kalmuck women
are extremely prolific. Barren marriages are
rare, and three or four children are generally
seen playing round every hut. From which (ob-
serves Pallas) it may naturally be concluded that
they ought to have multiplied greatly during the
hundred and fifty years that they inhabited tran-

* Cette multitude dévaste tout ce qui se trouve sur son pas-
sage; ils emménent avec eux tout le bétail qu’ils ne consomment
pas, et réduisent & l’esclavage les femmes, les enfans, et les hommes,
qu’ils n'ont pas massacrés. Découv. Russ. tom. iii. p. 390.

t Découv. Russ, tom. iii, p. 221. The tribe is described here
under the name of Torgots, which was their appropriate appella-

tion. The Russians called them by the more general name of
Kalmucks.

t Id. p. 327.

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 137

quilly the steppes of the Wolga. The reasons
which he gives for their not having increased so
much as might be expected, are the many acci-
dents occasioned by falls from horses, the fre-
quent petty wars between their different princes
and with their different neighbours; and particu-
larly the numbers among the poorer classes who
die of hunger, of misery, and every species of
calamity, of which the children are most fre-
quently the victims.*

It appears that when this tribe put itself under
the protection of Russia, it had separated from
the Soongares, and was by no means numerous.
The possession of the fertile steppes of the Wolga
and a more tranquil life soon increased it, and in
1662 it amounted to fifty thousand families.t
From this period to 1771, the time of its migra-
tion, it seems to have increased very slowly. The
extent of pastures possessed would not probably
admit of a much greater population; as at the
time of its flight from these quarters, the irrita-
tion of the Chan at the conduct of Russia was
seconded by the complaints of the people of the
want of pasture for their numerous herds. At
this time the tribe amounted to between 55 and

* Découv. Russ. tom. iii. p. 319, 320, 321.

+ Id. p. 221. Tooke’s View of the Russian Empire, vol. ii.
b. ii. p. 30. Another instance of rapid increase presents itself in
a colony of baptized Kalmucks, who received from Russia a fertile
district to settle in. From 8695, which was its number in 1754,
it had increased in 1771 to 14,000. Tooke’s View of the Russ.
Emp. vol, ii. b. ii. p. 32, 33.

138 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

60,000 families. Its fate in this curious migra-
tion was what has probably been the fate of
many other wandering hordes, who, from scanty
pastures or other causes of discontent, have at-
tempted to seek for fresh seats. The march
took place in the winter, and numbers perished
on this painful journey from: cold, famine, and
misery. A great part were either killed or taken
by the Kirghises; and those who reached their
place of destination, though received’ at first
kindly by the Chinese, were afterwards treated
with extreme severity.*

. Before this migration, the lower classes of the
Kalmucks had lived in great poverty and wretch-
edness, and had been reduced habitually to make
use of every animal, plant, .or root, from which it
was possible to extract nourishment.| They
very seldom killed any of their cattle that were
in health, except indeed. such as. were stolen;
and these were devoured immediately, for fear
of a discovery. Wounded or worn-out horses,
and beasts that had died of any disease except
a contagious epidemic, were considered as most
desirable food. Some ‘of the poorest. Kalmucks
would eat the most putrid carrion, and even the
dung of their cattle.{ A great number of chil-
dren perished of course from bad nourishment.§

* Tooke’s View of the Russ. Emp. vol. ii. b. ii..p. 29, 30, 31.
Découv. Russ. tom. iii. p. 221.
f Découv. Russ. tom. iii. p. 275, 276.
t Id p. 272, 273, 274.
5 Id. p. 324,

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 139

In the winter all the lower classes suffered se-
verely from cold and hunger.* In general, one
third of their sheep, and often much more, died
in the winter in spite of all their care; and if a
frost came late in the season after rain and snow,
so that the cattle could not get at the grass, the
mortality among their herds became general,
and the poorer classes were exposed to inevitable
famine.t

Malignant fevers, generated principally by their
putrid food and the putrid exhalations with which
they were surrounded, and the small-pox, which
was dreaded like the plague, sometimes thinned
their numbers;{ but in general it appears that
their population pressed so hard against the limits
of their means of subsistence, that want, with the
diseases arising from it, might be considered as
the principal check to their increase.

A person travelling in Tartary during the sum-
mer months would probably see extensive steppes
unoccupied, and grass in profusion spoiling for
want of cattle to consume it. He would infer
perhaps that the country could support a much
greater number of inhabitants, even supposing
them to remain in their shepherd state. But this
might be a hasty and unwarranted conclusion. A
horse or any other working animal is said to be
strong only in proportion to the strength of his

* Découv. Russ. tom. iii. p. 310.
+ Id. p. 270.
+ id: p- 311, 312, 313.

140 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

weakest part. If his legs be slender and feeble,
the strength of his body will be but of little con-
sequence; or if he wants power in his back and
haunches, the strength which he may possess in
his limbs can never be called fully into action.
The same reasoning must be applied to the power
of the earth to support living creatures. The
profusion of nourishment which is poured forth
in the seasons of plenty cannot all be consumed
by the scanty numbers that were able to subsist
through the season of scarcity. When human
industry and foresight are directed in the best
manner, the population which the soil can sup-
port is regulated by the average produce through-
out the year; but among animals, and in the
uncivilized states of man, it will be much below
this average. The Tartar would find it extremely
difficult to collect and carry with him such a
quantity of hay as would feed all his cattle well
during the winter. It would impede his motions,
expose him to the attacks of his enemies, and an
unfortunate day might deprive him of the labours
of a whole summer; as in the mutual invasions
which occur, it seems to be the universal practice
to burn and destroy all the forage and provisions
which cannot be carried away.* The Tartar

* On mit le feu a toutes les meules de blé et de fourrage.****
Cent cinquante villages également incendi¢és. Mémoires du Baron
de Tott, tom. i. p. 272. He gives a curious description of the
devastation of a Tartar army, and of its sufferings in a winter
campaign. Cette journée cotta a l’armée plus de 3,000 hommes,
et 30,000 chevaux, qui périrent de froid, p. 267.

Ch. vii. among,modern Pastoral Nations. 141

thereforé provides only for the most valuable of
his cattle during the winter, and leaves the rest
to support themselves by the scanty herbage
which they can pick up. This poor living, com-
bined with the severe cold, naturally destroys a
considerable part of them.* The population of
the tribe is measured by the population of its
herds; and the average numbers of the Tartars,
as of the horses that run wild in the desert, are
kept down so low by the annual returns of the
cold and scarcity of winter, that they cannot con-
sume all the plentiful offerings of summer.

Droughts and unfavourable seasons have, in
proportion to their frequency, the same effects as
the winter. In Arabia{ and a great part of Tar-
tary{ droughts are not uncommon; and if the
periods of their return be not above six or eight
years, the average population can never much
exceed what the soil can support during these -
unfavourable times. This is true in every situa-
tion; but perhaps, in the shepherd state, man is
peculiarly exposed to be affected by the seasons;
and a great mortality of parent stock is an evil
more fatal and longer felt than the failure of a
crop of grain. Pallas and the other Russian tra-
vellers speak of epizooties as very common in
these parts of the world.§

As among the Tartars a family is always ho-

* Découvertes Russes, vol. iii. p. 261.

+ Voy. de Volney, vol. i. c. 23. p. 353.

t Découv. Russ. tom. i. p. 467; ii. p. 10, 11, 12, &e.
§ Id. tom. i. p. 290, &c.; ii. p. 11; iv. p, 304.

142 - Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

nourable, and: women are reckoned very service-
able in the management of the cattle and the
household concerns, it is not probable that many
are deterred from marriage from the fear of not
being able to support a family.* At the same
time, as all wives are bought of their parents, it
must sometimes be out of the power of the poorer
classes to make the purchase. The Monk Ru-
bruquis, speaking of this custom, says that, as
parents keep all their daughters till they can sell
them, their maids are sometimes very stale before
they are married.{| Among the Mahometan Tar-
tars, female captives would supply the place of
wives;{ but among the Pagan Tartars, who make
but little use of slaves, the inability to buy wives
must frequently operate on the poorer classes as
a check to marriage, particularly as their price
would be kept up by the practice of polygamy
among the rich.

The Kalmucks are said not to be jealous,|| and
from the frequency of the venereal disease among
them,{] we may infer that a certain degree of pro-
miscuous intercourse prevails.

* Geneal. Hist. of the Tartars, vol. ii. p. 407.

+ Travels of Wm. Rubruquis, in 1253. Harris’s Collection of
Voy. b. i. c. ii, p. 561.

+ Découv. Russ. tom. iii. p. 413.

§ Pallas takes notice of the scarcity of women or superabun-
dance of males among the Kalmucks, notwithstanding the more
constant exposure of the male sex to every kind of accident. Dé-
couv. Russ. tom. iii. p. 320.

|| Id. p. 239.

| Id. p. 324.

Ch. vii. among modern Pastoral Nations. 143

On the whole, therefore, it would appear that
in that department of the shepherd life which has
been considered in this chapter, the principal
checks which keep the population down to the
level of the means of subsistence are, restraint
from inability to obtain a wife, vicious customs
with respect to women, epidemics, wars, famine,
and the diseases arising from extreme poverty.
The three first checks and the last appear to have
operated with much less force among the shep-
herds of the north of Europe.

( 144)

CHAP. VIII.

Of the Checks to Population in different parts of Africa.

Tue parts of Africa visited by Park are de-
scribed by him as neither well cultivated nor well
peopled. He found many extensive and beautiful
districts entirely destitute of inhabitants; and in
general the borders of the different kingdoms
were either very thinly peopled or perfectly de-
serted. The swampy banks of the Gambia, the
Senegal, and other rivers towards the coast, ap-
peared to be unfavourable to population, from
being unhealthy;* but other parts were not of
this description; and it was not possible, he
says, to behold the wonderful fertility of the
soil, the vast herds of cattle proper both for la-
bour and food, and reflect on the means which
presented themselves of vast inland navigation,
without lamenting that a country so abundantly
gifted by nature should remain in its present sa-
vage and neglected state.f

The causes of this neglected state clearly ap-
pear, however, in the description which Park
gives of the general habits of the negro nations.
In a country divided into a thousand petty states,
mostly independent and jealous of each other, it

* Park’s Interior of Africa, c. xx. p. 261. to,
t Id. c. xxiii. p. 312.

Ch. viii. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 145

is natural, he says, to imagine that wars fre-
quently originate from very frivolous provoca-
tions. The wars of Africa are of two kinds, one
called Killi, that which is openly avowed; and
the other, Tegria, plundering or stealing. These
latter are very common, particularly about the
beginning of the dry season, when the mone
harvest are over, and provisions are plentifu me
These plundering excursions always produce
speedy retaliation.*

The insecurity of property arising from this
constant exposure to plunder, must necessa-
rily have a most baneful effect on industry. The
deserted state of all the frontier provinces suffi-
ciently proves to what degree it operates. The
nature of the climate is unfavourable to the exer-
tion of the negro nations; and, as there are not
many opportunities of turning to advantage the
surplus produce of their labour, we cannot be sur-
prised that they should in general content them-
selves with cultivating only so much ground as is
necessary for their own support.| These causes
appear adequately to account for the uncultivated
state of the country.

The waste of life in these constant wars and
predatory incursions must be considerable; and
Park agrees with Buffon in stating, that indepen-
dently of violent causes, longevity is rare among
the negroes. At forty, he says, most of them
become grey-haired and covered with wrinkles,

* Park’s Interior of Africa, c. xxii. p. 291 & seq.
t Id. c. xxi. p. 280.
VOL. I. L

146 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

and few of them survive the age of fifty-five or «
sixty.* Buffon attributes this shortness of life to
the premature intercourse of the sexes, and very
early and excessive debauchery.f On this sub-
ject perhaps he has been led into exaggerations;
but without attributing too much to this cause, it
seems agreeable to the analogy of nature to sup-
pose that, as the natives of hot climates arrive
much earlier at maturity than the inhabitants of
colder countries, they should also perish earlier.
According to Buffon, the negro-women are ex-
tremely prolific; butitappears from Park that they
are in the habit of suckling their children two
or three years, and as the husband during this
time devotes the whole of his attention to his other
wives, the family of each wife is seldom nume-
rous.[ Polygamy is universally allowed among
the negro nations ;§ and consequently without a

* Park’s Africa, c. xxi. p. 284.

t L’usage prémature des femmes est peut-étre la cause de la
briéveté de leur vie ; les enfans sont si débauchés, et si peu con-
traints par les péres et méres que dés leur plus tendre jeunesse ils
se livrent & tout ce que la nature leur suggére ; rien n’est si rare
que de trouver dans ce peuple quelque fille qui puisse se souvenir
du tems auquel elle a cessée d’étre vierge. Histoire Naturelle de
YHomme, vol. vi. p- 235. 5th edit. 12mo. 31 vols.

t Park’s Africa, c. xx. p. 265. As the accounts of Park, and
those on which Buffon has founded his observations, are probably
accounts of different nations, and certainly at different periods, we
cannot infer that either is incorrect because they differ from each
other ; but as far as Park’s observations extend, they are certainly
entitled to more credit than any of the travellers which preceded
him.

§ Park's Africa, c. xx. p, 267.

Ch. vii. different Parts of Africa. 147

greater superabundance of women than we have
reason to suppose, many will be obliged to live
unmarried. This hardship will principally fall on
the slaves, who, according to Park, are in the
proportion of three to one to the free men.* A
master is not permitted to sell his domestic slaves
or those born in his own house, except in case of
famine, to support himself and family.. We may
imagine therefore that he will not suffer them to
increase beyond the employment which he has
for them. ‘The slaves which are purchased, or
the prisoners taken in war, are entirely at the
disposal of their masters.f They are often treated
with extreme severity, and in any scarcity of wo-
men arising from the polygamy of the free men,
would of course be deprived of them without
scruple. Few or no women, probably, remain
in a state of strict celibacy; but in proportion to
the number married, the state of society does not
seem to be favourable to increase.

Africa has been at all times the principal mart
of slaves. The drains of its population in this
way have been great and constant, particularly
since their introduction into the European colo-
nies; but perhaps, as Dr. Franklin observes, it
would be difficult to find the gap that has been
made by a hundred years’ exportation of negroes
which has blackened half America.{ For not-
withstanding this constant emigration, the loss of

* Park’s Africa, c. xxii. p. 287.
+ Id. p. 288.
{ Franklin’s Miscell. p. 9.

ae

148 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. i.

numbers from incessant war, and the checks to
increase from vice and other causes, it appears
that the population is continually pressing against
the limits of the means of subsistence. Accord-
ing to Park, scarce years and famines are fre-
quent. Among the four principal causes of slavery
in Africa, he mentions famine next to war;* and
the express permission given to masters to sell
their domestic slaves for the support of their fa-
mily, which they are not allowed to do on any
less urgent occasion, seems to imply the not
unfrequent recurrence of severe want. During
a great scarcity which lasted for three years in
the countries of the Gambia, great numbers of
people became slaves. Park was assured by Dr.
Laidley that at that time many free men came, and
begged with great earnestness to be put upon his
slave chain to save them from perishing with
hunger.{ While Park was in Manding, a scarcity
of provisions was severely felt by the poor, as the
following circumstance painfully convinced him.
Every evening during his stay, he observed five
or six women come to the Mansa’s house and re-
ceive each of them a certain quantity of corn.
“« Observe that boy,” said Mansa to him, pointing
to a fine child about five years of age—‘‘ his mo-
‘* ther has sold him to me for forty days’ provision
‘‘ for herself and the rest of her family. I have

* Park’s Africa, c. xxii, p. 295.
t Id. p. 288, note.
¢ Id. p. 295.

Ch. viil. different Parts of Africa. 149

“bought another boy in the same manner.”* — In
Sooseeta, a small Jallonka village, Mr. Park was
informed by the master that he could furnish no
provisions, as there had lately been a great scar-
city in that part of the country. He assured him
that before they had gathered in their present
crops all the inhabitants of Kullo had been for
twenty-nine days without tasting corn; during
which time they had supported themselves entirely
on the yellow powder which is found in the pods
of the nitta, (so called by the natives,) a species of
mimosa, and upon the seeds of the bamboo cane,
which when properly pounded and dressed taste
very much like rice.T

It may be said perhaps that as, according to
Park’s account, much good land remains uncul-
tivated in Africa, the dearths may be attributed
to a want of people; but if this were the case,
we can hardly suppose that such numbers would
yearly be sent out of the country. What the
negro nations really want is security of property,
and its general concomitant, industry; and with-
out these, an increase of people would only
ageravate their distresses. If, in order to fill up
those parts which appeared to be deficient in in-
habitants, we were to suppose a high bounty
given on children, the effects would probably be,
the increase of wars, the increase of the exporta-

* Park’s Africa, c. xix. p. 248.
+ Id. c. xxv. p. 336.

150 Of the Checks to Populationin — Bk. 1.

tion of slaves, and a great increase of misery,
but little or no real increase of population.*

The customs of some nations, and the preju-
dices of all, operate in some degree like a bounty
of this kind. The Shangalla negroes, according
to Bruce, hemmed in on every side by active and
powerful enemies, and leading a life of severe
labour and constant apprehension, feel but little
desire for women. It is the wife, and not the
man, that is the cause of their polygamy. Though
they live in separate tribes or nations, yet these
nations are again subdivided into families. In
fighting, each family attacks and defends by itself,
and theirs is the spoil and plunder who take it.
The mothers therefore, sensible of the disadvan-
tages of a small family, seek to multiply it by all
the means in their power; and it is by their im-
portunity, that the husband suffers himself to be
overcome.f The motives to polygamy among the
Galla are described to be the same, and in both
nations the first wife courts the alliance of a se-
cond for her husband; and the principal argument

* The two great requisites just mentioned for a real increase of
population, namely, security of property, and its natural conco-
mitant, industry, cannot be expected to exist among the negro
nations, while the traffic in slaves on the coast gives such constant
encouragement to the plundering excursions which Park describes.
Were this traffic at an end, we might rationally hope that, before
the lapse of any long period, future travellers would be able to
give us a more favourable picture of the state of society among
the African nations, than that drawn by Park.

+ Bruce’s Travels to discover the Source of the Nile, vol. ii. p.
556. Ato.

Ch. vii. different Parts of Africa. 151

she makes use of is, that their families may be
joined together and be strong, and that her chil-
dren, by being few in number, may not fall a prey
to their enemies in the day of battle.* It is highly
probable that this extreme desire of having large
families defeats its own purpose; and that the
poverty and misery, which it occasions, cause
fewer children to grow up to maturity, than if
the parents confined their attention to the rearing
of a smaller number.

Bruce is a great friend to polygamy, and es
fends it, in the oy way in which it is capable of
being defended, by asserting, that in the countries
in which it principally prevails the proportion of
girls to boys born is two or three to one. A fact
so extraordinary however cannot be admitted
upon the authority of those vague inquiries on
which he founds his opinion. That there are con-
siderably more women living than men in these
climates, is in the highest degree probable. Even
in Europe, where it is known with certainty that
more boys are born than girls, the women in ge-
neral exceed the men in number; and we may
imagine that in hot and unhealthy climates, and
in a barbarous state of society, the accidents to
which the men are exposed must be very greatly
increased. The women, by leading a more se-
dentary life, would suffer less from the effects of
a scorching sun and swampy exhalations; they
would in general be more exempt from the dis-

* Bruce's Travels, vol, ii, p. 223.

152 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

orders arising from debauchery; but, above all,
they would escape in great measure the ravages
of war. In a state of society in which hostilities
never cease, the drains of men, from this cause
alone, must occasion a great disproportion of the
sexes, particularly where it is the custom, as re-
lated of the Galla in Abyssinia,* to massacre
indiscriminately all the males, and save only the
marriageable women from the general destruction.
The actual disproportion of the sexes arising from
these causes probably first gave rise to the per-
mission of polygamy, and has perhaps contributed
to make us more easily believe, that the propor-
tion of male and female children in hot climates
is very different from what we have experienced
it to be in the temperate zone.

Bruce, with his usual prejudices on this subject,
seems to think that the celibacy of a part of the
women is fatal to the population of a country.
He observes of Jidda that, on account of the great
scarcity of provisions, which is the result of an
extraordinary concourse of people to a_ place
almost destitute of the necessaries of life, few of
the inhabitants can avail themselves of the privi-
lege granted by Mahomet. They cannot there-
fore marry more than one wife; and from this
cause arises, he says, the want of people and the
large number of unmarried women.t But it is

* Bruce's Travels to discover the Source of the Nile, vol. iv. p.
411.

+ Id. vol. i. c. xi. p. 280.

Ch. viii. different Parts of Africa. 153

evident that the want of people in this barren
spot arises solely from the want of provisions, and
that, if each man had four wives, the number of
people could not be permanently increased by
it.

In Arabia Felix, according to Bruce, where
every sort of provision is exceedingly cheap,
where the fruits of the ground, the general food of
man, are produced spontaneously, the support of
a number of wives costs no more than that of so
many slaves or servants. Their food is the same,
and a blue cotton shirt, a habit common to them
all, is not more chargeable for the one than for
the other. The consequence is, he says, that
celibacy in women is prevented, and the number
of people increased in a fourfold ratio by poly-
gamy, to what it is in those countries that are
monogamous.* And yet, notwithstanding this
fourfold increase, it does not appear that any part
of Arabia is really very populous.

The effect of polygamy in increasing the number
of married women and preventing celibacy is be-
yond dispute; but how far this may tend to in-
crease the actual population is a very different
consideration. It may perhaps continue to press
the population harder against the limits of the
food; but the squalid and hopeless poverty which
this occasions is by no means favourable to in-
dustry; and in a climate in which there appears
to be many predisposing causes of sickness, it is

* Bruce, vol. i, c. xi. p. 281.

154 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

difficult to conceive that this state of wretchedness
does not powerfully contribute to the extraordi-
nary mortality which has been observed in some
of these countries.

According to Bruce, the whole coast of the Red
Sea, from Suez to Babelmandel, is extremely un-
wholesome, but more especially between the tro-
pics. Violent fevers, called there Nedad, make
the principal figure in this fatal list, and generally
terminate the third dayindeath.* Fear frequently
seizes strangers upon the first sight of the great
mortality which they observe on their first ar-
rival.

Jidda, and all the parts of Arabia adjacent to
the eastern coast of the Red Sea, are in the same
manner very unwholesome.t

In Gondar, fevers perpetually reign, and the in-
habitants are all of the colour of a corpse.{

In Sire, one of the finest countries in the world,
putrid fevers of the very worst kind are almost
constant.{ In the low grounds of Abyssinia, in
general, malignant tertians occasion a great mor-
tality.|| And every where the small-pox makes
great ravages, particularly among the nations bor-
dering on Abyssinia, where it sometimes extin-
guishes whole tribes.

* Bruce, vol. iii. p. 33.

T Id. vol. i. p. 279.

¢ Id. vol. iii, p 178.

§ Id. p. 153.

|| Id. vol. iv. p. 22.

q Id. vol. iii. c. iii. p. 68. c. vii. p. 178; vol. i. c. xiii. p. 353.

Ch. viii. different Parts of Africa. 155

The effect of poverty, with bad diet, and, its al-
most constant concomitant, want of cleanliness, in
ageravating malignant distempers, is well known ;
and this kind of wretchedness seems generally to
prevail. Of Tchagassa, near Gondar, Bruce ob-
serves that the inhabitants, notwithstanding their
threefold harvests, are miserably poor.* At
Adowa, the capital of Tigré, he makes the same
remark, and applies it to all the Abyssinian
farmers. The land is let yearly to the highest
bidder, and in general the landlord furnishes the
seed and receives half of the produce; but it is
said that he is a very indulgent master who does
not take another quarter for the risk he has run;
so that the quantity which comes to the share of
the husbandman is not more than sufficient to af-
ford a bare sustenance to his wretched family.t

The Agows, one of the most considerable na-
tions of Abyssinia in point of number, are described
by Bruce as living in a state of misery and penury
scarcely to be conceived. We saw a number of
women, he says, wrinkled and sun-burnt so as
scarcely to appear human, wandering about under
a burning sun with one and sometimes two chil-
dren upon their backs, gathering the seeds of
bent grass to make a kind of bread.f The Agow
women begin to bear children at eleven years old.
They marry generally about that age, and there is

* Bruce, vol. iii. c. vii. p. 195.
t Id... ys p: 124:
t Id. c. xix. p. 738.

156 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

no such thing as barrenness known among them.*
In Dixan, one of the frontier towns of Abyssinia,
the only trade is that of selling children. _Five
hundred are exported annually to Arabia; and in
times of scarcity, Bruce observes, four times that
number.t

In Abyssinia polygamy does not regularly pre-
vail. Bruce, indeed, makes rather a strange as-
sertion on this subject; and says that, though we
read from the Jesuits a great deal about marriage
and polygamy, yet that there is nothing which
may be averred more truly than that there is no
such thing as marriage in Abyssinia.[ But, how-
ever this may be, it appears clear that few or no
women lead a life of celibacy in that country; and
that the prolific powers of nature are nearly all
called into action, except so far as they are
checked by promiscuous intercourse. This, how-
ever, from the state of manners described by
Bruce, must operate very powerfully.§

The check to population frem war appears to
be excessive. For the last four hundred years,
according to Bruce, it has never ceased to lay
desolate this unhappy country;|| and the savage
manner in which it is carried on surrounds it with
tenfold destruction. When Bruce first entered
Abyssinia, he saw on every side ruined villages

* Bruce, vol. iii. c, xix. p. 739.
t Id. c. iii. p. 88.

t Id.c. xi. p. 306.

§ Id. p. 292.

|] Id. vol. iv. p. 119

Ch. viii. different Parts of Africa. 157

destroyed to their lowest foundations by Ras
Michael in his march to Gondar.* In the course
of the civil wars, while Bruce was in the country,
he says, “‘ The rebels had begun to lay waste
«« Dembea, and burnt all the villages in the plain
“from south to west, making it like a desert be-
«tween Michael and Fasil.**** The king often
‘“* ascended to the top of the.tower of his palace,
“and contemplated with the greatest displea-
“sure the burning of his rich villages in Dem-
“ bea.’+ In another place he says, ‘‘ The whole
“country of Degwessa was totally destroyed ;
“men, women and children were entirely extir-
“‘ pated without distinction of age or sex; the
“houses razed to the ground, and the country
‘about it left as desolate as after the deluge.
«« The villages belonging to the king were as se-
“verely treated; an universal cry was heard
‘from all parts, but no one dared to suggest
‘‘any means of help.”{ In Maitsha, one of the
provinces of Abyssinia, he was told that, if ever
he met an old man, he might be sure that he was
a stranger, as all that were natives died by the
lance young.§

If the picture of the state of Abyssinia drawn
by Bruce, be in any degree near the truth, it
places in a strong point of view the force of that
principle of increase, which preserves a popula-

* Bruce, vol. iii. c. vii. p. 192.
t Id. vol. iv. c. v. p. 112.

t Id. vol. iv. p. 258.

§ Id. c. i. p. 14.

158 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

tion fully up to the level of the means of subsist-
ence under the checks of war, pestilential diseases
and promiscuous intercourse, all operating in an
excessive degree.

The nations which border on Abyssinia are
universally short-lived. A Shangalla woman at
twenty-two is, according to Bruce, more wrinkled
and deformed by age than an European woman
at sixty.* It would appear, therefore, that in all
these countries, as among the northern shepherds
in the times of their constant emigrations, there
is a very rapid succession of human beings; and
the difference in the two instances is, that our
northern ancestors died out of their own country,
whereas these die at home. If accurate registers
of mortality were kept among these nations, |
have little doubt that it would appear, that, in-
cluding the mortality from wars, 1 in 17 or 18 at
the least dies annually, stead of 1] in 34, 36,
or 40, as in the generality of European states.

The description, which Bruce gives of some
parts of the country which he passed through on
his return home, presents a picture more dreadful
even than the state of Abyssinia, and shews how
little population depends on the birth of children,
in comparison of the production of food and
those circumstances of natural and political situa-
tion which influence ae produce.

*« At half past six,” Bruce says, ‘“ we arrived
“at Garigana, a village whose inhabitants had all

* Bruce, vol. ii. p. 559.

Ch, viii. different Parts of Africa. 159

‘‘ perished with hunger the year before; their
““ wretched bones being all unburied and scat-
“ tered upon the surface of the ground where the
*‘ village formerly stood. We encamped among
*“« the bones of the dead; no space could be found
“< free from them.’*

Of another town or village in his route he ob-
serves, “ The strength of Teawa was 25 horse.
“The rest of the inhabitants might be 1200
‘‘naked miserable and despicable Arabs, lke
** the rest of those which live in villages.**** Such
“‘ was the state of Teawa. Its consequence was
“only to remain till the Daveina Arabs should
“ resolve to attack it, when its corn-fields being
“ burnt and destroyed in a night by a multitude
* of horsemen, the bones of its inhabitants scat-
** tered upon the earth would be all its remains,
“like those of the miserable village of Gari-
“< gana. .

«« There is no water between Teawa and Beyla.
*“Once Indedidema and a number of villages
** were supplied with water from wells, and had
“large crops of Indian corn sown about their
“ possessions. The curse of that country, the
“Daveina Arabs, have destroyed Indedidema
“and all the villages about it; filled up their
** wells, burnt their crops, and exposed all the in-
*« habitants to die by famine.”

* Bruce, vol. iv. p, 349.
+. Id. p. 353.
¢ Id. p. 411.

150 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

Soon after leaving Sennaar, he says, ‘‘ We
“‘ began to see the effects of the quantity of rain
“‘ having failed. There was little corn sown, and
*‘ that so late as to be scarcely above ground. It
‘« seems the rains begin later as they pass north-
“ward. Many people were here employed in
‘« gathering grass-seeds to make a very bad kind
‘‘of bread. These people appear perfect skele-
“tons, and no wonder, as they live upon such
‘fare. Nothing increases the danger of travel-
“‘ ling and prejudice against strangers more, than
“‘ the scarcity of provisions in the country through
«« which you are to pass.”*

“ Came to Eltic, a straggling village about half
‘©a mile from the Nile, in the north of a large
“bare plain; all pasture, except the banks of the
*« river which are covered with wood. We now
“no longer saw any corn sown. The people
“here were at the same miserable employment
‘* as those we had seen before, that of gathering
“* grass-seeds.”f

Under such circumstances of climate and poli-
tical situation, though a greater degree of fore-
sight, industry and security, might considerably
better their condition and increase their popula-
tion, the birth of a greater number of children
without these concomitants would only aggravate
their misery, and leave their population where it
was.

* Bruce, vol. iv. p. 511.
+ Id. p. 511.

Ch. viii. different Parts of Africa. 161

The same may be said of the once flourishing
find populous country of Egypt. Its present de-
pressed state has not been caused by the weaken-
ing of the principle of increase, but by the weak-
ening of the principle of industry and foresight,
from the insecurity of property consequent on
a most tyrannical and oppressive government.
The principle of increase in Egypt at present
does all that is possible for it to do. It keeps
the population fully up to the level of the means
of subsistence; and, were its power ten times
greater than it really is, it could do no more.

The remains of ancient works, the vast lakes,.
canals and large conduits for water destined to
keep the Nile under contro], serving as reservoirs
to supply a dry year, and as drains and outlets
to prevent the superabundance of water in wet
‘years, sufficiently indicate to us that the former
inhabitants of Egypt by art and industry contrived
to fertilize a much greater quantity of land from
the overflowings of their river, than is done at pre-
sent; and to prevent, in some measure, the dis-
tresses which are now so frequently experienced
from a redundant or insufficient inundation.* It
is said of the.governor Petronius, that, effecting
by art what was denied by nature, he caused abun-
dance to prevail in Egypt under the disadvantages
of such a deficient inundation, as had always be-
fore been accompanied by dearth.t A flood too

* Bruce, vol. iii. c. xvii. p. 710.
+ Voyage de Volney, tom. i. c. iii. p. 33. Svo.

VOL. I. M

162 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

great is as fatal to the husbandman as one that is
deficient; and the ancients had, in consequence®
drains and outlets to spread the superfluous waters
over the thirsty sands of Lybia, and render even the
desert habitable. These works are now all out of
repair, and by ill management often produce
mischief instead of good. The causes of this neg-
lect, and consequently of the diminished means
of subsistence, are obviously to be traced to the
extreme ignorance and brutality of the govern-
ment, and the wretched state of the people. The
Mamelukes, in whom the principal power resides,
think only of enriching themselves, and employ for
this purpose what appears to them to be the sim-
plest method, that of seizing wealth wherever it
may be found, of wresting it by violence from the
possessor, and of continually imposing new and
arbitrary contributions.* Their ignorance and
brutality, and the constant state of alarm in
which they live, prevent them from having any
views of enriching the country, the better to pre-
pare it for their plunder. No public works there-
fore are to be expected from the government, and
no individual proprietor dares to undertake any
improvement which might imply the possession
of capital, as it would probably be the immediate
signal of his destruction. Under such circum-
stances we cannot be surprised that the ancient
works are neglected, that the soil is ill cultivated,
and that the means of subsistence, and conse-

* Voyage de Velney, tom. i. c. xii, p. 170.

Ch. viii. different Parts of Africa. 163

quently the population, are greatly reduced, But
‘such is the natural fertility of the Delta from the
inundations of the Nile, that even without any
capital employed upon the land, without a right
of succession, and consequently almost without a
right of property, it still maintains a considerable
population in proportion to its extent, sufficient,
if property were secure, and industry well di-
rected, gradually to improve and extend the cul-
tivation of the country and restore it to its for-
mer state of prosperity. It may be safely pro-
nounced of Egypt that it is not the want of
population that has checked its industry, but the
want of industry that has checked its population.

The immediate causes which keep down the
population to the level of the present contracted
means of subsistence, are but too obvious. The
peasants are allowed for their maintenance only
sufficient to keep them alive.* A miserable sort
of bread made of doura without leaven or flavour,
cold water, and raw onions make up the whole of
their diet. Meat and fat, of which they are pas-
sionateiy fond, never appear but on great oc-
casions, and among those who are more at their
ease. Their habitations are huts made of earth,
where a stranger would be suffocated with the
heat and smoke; and where the diseases gene-
rated by want of cleanliness, by moisture and by
bad nourishment, often visit them and commit
great ravages. To these physical evils are added

* Voyage de Volney, tom. i. ¢. xii, p. 172.

M 2

164 Of the Checks to Population. Bk. 1.

a constant state of alarm, the fear of the plunder
of the Arabs, and the visits of the Mamelukes,
the spirit of revenge transmitted in families, and
all the evils of a continual civil war.*

In the year 1783 the plague was very fatal;
and in 1784 and 1785 a dreadful famine reigned
in Egypt, owing to a deficiency in the inundation
of the Nile. Volney draws a frightful picture of
the misery that was suffered on this occasion.
The streets of Cairo, which at first were full of
beggars, were soon cleared of all these objects,
who either perished or fled. A vast number of
unfortunate wretches, in order to escape death,
spread themselves over all the neighbouring coun-
tries, and the towns of Syria were inundated
with Egyptians. The streets and public places
were crowded by famished and dying skeletons.
All the most revolting modes of satisfying the
cravings of hunger were resorted to; the most
disgusting food was devoured with eagerness;
and. Volney mentions the having seen under the
walls of ancient Alexandria two miserable
wretches seated on the carcase of a camel, and
disputing with the dogs its putrid flesh. The
depopulation of the two years was estimated at
one-sixth of all the inhabitants.f

* Volney, tom. i. c. xii. p. 173. This sketch of the state of the
peasantry in Egypt given by Volney seems to be nearly confirmed
by all other writers on this subject ; and particularly in a valuable
paper entitled Considérations générales sur I Agriculture de
P Egypte, par L. Reynier. (Mémoires sur I’ Egypte, tom. iv. p. 1.)

+ Voy. de Volney, tom. i. c. xii, s, ii,

CHAP. IX.

Of the Checks to Population in Siberia, Northern and
Southern.

Tue inhabitants of the most northern parts of
Asia subsist chiefly by hunting and fishing; and
we may suppose therefore that the checks to
their increase are of the same nature as those
which prevail among the American Indians; ex-
cept that the check from war is considerably less,
and the check from famine perhaps greater, than
in the temperate regions of America. M. de
Lesseps, who travelled from Kamtschatka to
Petersburgh with the papers of the unfortunate
Pérouse, draws a melancholy picture of the mi-
sery sometimes suffered in this part of the world
from a scarcity of food. He observes, while at
Bolcheretsk, a village of Kamtschatka; ‘“ Very
«heavy rains are injurious in this country, be-
“« cause they occasion floods which drive the fish
‘from the rivers. A famine, the most distressing
“to the poor Kamtschadales, is the result; as
‘«« happened last ‘year in‘all the villages along the
“ western coast of the peninsula. This dreadful
«‘ calamity occurs so frequently in this quarter,
‘‘that the inhabitants are obliged to abandon
“their dwellings, and repair with their families
**to the border of the Kamtschatka river where

166 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

“‘ they hope to find better resources, fish being
“more plentiful in this river. Mr. Kasloff (the
«Russian officer who conducted M. de Les-
‘“* seps) had intended to proceed along the west-
“ern coast; but the news of this famine de-
** termined him, contrary to his wishes, to return
*“ rather than be driven to the necessity of stop-
“ping half way or perishing with hunger.”’*
Though a different route was pursued, yet in the
course of the journey almost all the dogs, which
drew the sledges, died for want of food; and
every dog, as soon as he failed, was immediately
devoured by the others.t

Even at Okotsk, a town of considerable trade,
the inhabitants wait with hungry impatience for
the breaking up of the river Okhota in the spring.
When M. de Lesseps was there, the stock of
dried fish was nearly exhausted. Meal was so
dear that the common people were unable to pur-
chase it. On drawing the river prodigious num-
bers of small fish were caught, and the joy and
clamour redoubled at the sight. The most fa-
mished were first served. M. de Lesseps feel-
ingly says, “I could not refrain from tears on
** perceiving the ravenousness of these poor crea-
** tures ;****whole families contended for the fish,
‘‘ which were devoured raw before my eyes.”"{ _

Throughout all the northern parts of Siberia,

* Travels in Kamtschatka, vol. i. p- 147. 8vo. Eng. trans.
1790.

+ Id. p. 264.

t Id. vol. ii. p. 252, 253.

Ch. ix. Siberia, Northern and Southern. 167

the small-pox is very fatal. In Kamtschatka,
according to M. de Lesseps, it has carried off
three fourths* of the native inhabitants.

Pallas confirms this account; and, in describing
the Ostiacks on the Obi, who live nearly in the
same manner, observes that this disorder makes
dreadful ravages among them, and may be con-
sidered as the principal check to their increase.
The extraordinary mortality of the small-pox
among these people is very naturally accounted
for by the extreme heat, filth and putrid air of
their underground habitations. Three or four
Ostiack families are crowded together in one hut ;
and nothing can be so disgusting as their mode
of living. They never wash their hands, and the
putrid remains of the fish, and the excrements of
the children, are never cleared away. From this
description, says Pallas, one may easily form an
idea of the stench, the fetid vapours and humidity
of their Yourts.{ They have seldom many chil-
dren. Itisarare thing-to see three or four in
one family; and the reason given by Pallas is
that so many die young on account of their bad
nourishment.§ To this, perhaps, should be added
the state of miserable and laborious servitude to
which the women are condemned,|| which cer-
tainly prevents them from being prolific.

* Travels in Kamtschatka, vol. i. p. 128.

+ Voy. de Pallas, tom. iv, p. 68. 4to. 5 vols. 1788, Paris.
t Id. p. 60.

§ Id. p. 72.

\| Id. p. 60.

168 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

The Samoyedes, Pallas thinks, are not quite so
dirty as the Ostiacks, because they are more in
motion during the winter in hunting; but he de-
scribes the state of the women amongst them as
a still more wretched and laborious servitude ;*
and consequently the check to population from
this cause must be greater.

Most of the natives of these inhospitable regions
live nearly in the same miserable manner, which
it would be.therefore mere repetition to describe.
From what has been said, we may form a suffi-
cient idea of the principal checks that keep the
actual population down to the level of the scanty
means of subsistence which these dreary coun-
tries afford. .

In some of the southern parts of Siberia, and
in the districts adjoining the Wolga, the Russian
travellers describe the soil to be of extraordinary
fertility. It consists in general of a fine black
mould of so rich a nature as not to require or even
to bear dressing. Manure only makes the. corn
grow too luxuriantly, and subjects it to fall to the
ground and be spoiled. The only mode of re-
cruiting this kind of land which is practised is,
by leaving it one year out of three in fallow; and
proceeding in this way, there are some grounds,
the vigour of which is said to be inexhaustible.
Yet, notwithstanding the facility with which, as
it would appear, the most plentiful subsistence
might be procured, many of these districts are

* Voy. de Pallas, tom. iv. p. 92.
qf: Ed:p.95-

Ch. ix. Siberia, Northern and Southern. 169

thinly peopled, and in none of them, perhaps,
does population increase in the proportion that
might be expected from the nature of the soil.
Such countries seem to be under that moral
impossibility of increasing, which is well de-
scribed by Sir James Steuart.* If either from
the nature of the government, or the habits of the
people, obstacles exist to the settlement of fresh
farms or the subdivision of the old ones, a part of
the society may suffer want, even in the midst of
apparent plenty. Itis not enough that a country
should have the power of producing food in abun-
dance, but the state of society must be such as to
afford the means of its proper distribution; and
the reason why population goes on slowly in these
countries is, that the small demand for labour
prevents that distribution of the produce of the
soil, which, while the divisions of land remain the
same, can alone make the lower classes of society
partakers of the plenty which it affords. The
mode of agriculture is described to be extremely
simple, and to require very few labourers. In
some places the seed is merely thrown on the
fallow.t The buck-wheat is a common culture;
and though it is sown very thin, yet one sowing
will last five or six years, and produce every year
twelve or fifteen times the original quantity. The
seed which falls during the time of the harvest is
sufficient for the next year, and it is only necessary

* Polit. Econ. b.i. c. v. p. 30. 4to,
+ Voy. de Pallas, tom. i. p. 290.

170 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

to pass a harrow once over it in the spring. And
this is continued till the fertility of the soil be-
~ gins to diminish. It is observed, very justly, that
the cultivation of no kind of grain can so exactly
suit the indolent inhabitants of the plains of
Siberia.*

With such a system of agriculture, and with
few or no manufactures, the demand for labour
must very easily be satisfied. Corn will undoubt-
edly be very cheap; but labour will in proportion
be still cheaper. Though the farmer may be able
to provide an ample quantity of food for his own
children, yet the wages of his labourer may not be
sufficient to enable him to rear up a family with
ease.

If, from observing the deficiency of population
compared with the fertility of the soil, we were
to endeavour to remedy it by giving a bounty
upon children, and thus enabling the labourer to
rear up a greater number, what would be the
consequence? Nobody would want the work of
the supernumerary labourers that were thus
brought into the market. Though the ample sub-
sistence of a man for a day might be purchased
for a penny, yet nobody would give these people
a farthing for their labour. The farmer is able to
do all that he wishes, all that he thinks necessary
in the cultivation of the soil, by means of his own
family and the one or two labourers that he might
have before. As these people therefore can give
him nothing that he wants, it is not to be ex-

* Découv. Russ. vol. iv. p. 329. 8vo. 4 vols. Berne.

Ch.ix. Siberia, Northern and Southern. 171

pected that he should overcome his natural indo-
lence, and undertake a larger and more trouble-
some concern, merely to provide them gratuitously
with food. In such a state of things, when the
very small demand for manufacturing labour is
satisfied, what are the rest todo? They are, in
fact, as completely without the means of subsist-
ence as if they were living upon a barren sand.
They must either emigrate to some place where
their work is wanted, or perish miserably of po-
verty. Should they be prevented from suffering
this last extremity by a scanty subsistence given
to them, in consequence of a scanty and only
occasional use of their labour, it is evident that,
though they might exist themselves, they would
not be in a capacity to marry and continue to in-
crease the population.

If in the best cultivated and most populous
countries of Europe the present divisions of land
and farms had taken place, and had not been fol-
lowed by the introduction of commerce and ma-
nufactures, population would long since have
come to a stand from the total want of motive to
further cultivation, and the consequent want of
demand for labour; and it is obvious that the
excessive fertility of the country now under con-
sideration would rather aggravate than diminish
the difficulty.

It will probably be said that, if there were much
good land unused, new settlements and divisions
would of course take place, and that the redun-

172 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

dant population would raise its own food, and
generate the demand for it, as in America.

This would, no doubt, be the case under fa-
vourable circumstances; if, for instance, in the
first place, the land were of such a nature as to
afford all the other materials of capital as well as
corn; secondly, if such land were to be purchased
in small lots, and the property well secured under
a free government; and, thirdly, if habits of in-
dustry. and accumulation generally prevailed
among the mass of the people. But the failure
of any of these conditions would essentially check,
or might altogether stop, the progress of popula-
tion. Land that would bear the most abundant
crops of corn might be totally unfit for extensive
and general settlements from a want either of
wood or of water. The accumulations of indi-
viduals would go most reluctantly and slowly to
the land, if the tenures on which farms were held
were either insecure or degrading; and no facility
of production could effect a permanent increase
and proper distribution of the necessaries of life
under inveterate habits of indolence and want of
foresight. )

It is obvious that the favourable circumstances
here alluded to have not been combined in Sibe-
ria; and even on the supposition of there being
no physical defects in the nature of the soil to be
overcome, the political and moral difficulties in
the way of a rapid increase of population could
yield but slowly to the best-directed efforts. In

America the rapid increase of agricultural capital

Ch. ix. Siberia, Northern and Southern. 173

is occasioned in a great degree by the savings
from the high wages of common labour. The
command of thirty or forty pounds at the least, is
considered as necessary to enable an active young
man to begin a plantation of his own in the back
settlements. Such asum may be saved in a few
years without much difficulty in America, where
labour is in great demand and paid at a high rate;
but the redundant labourer of Siberia would find
it extremely difficult to collect such funds as would
enable him to build a house, to purchase stock and
utensils, and to subsist till he could bring his new
land into proper order and obtain an adequate
return. Even the children of the farmer, when
grown up, would not easily provide these neces-
sary funds. Ina state of society where the mar-
ket for corn is extremely narrow, and the price
very low, the cultivators are always poor; and
though they may be able amply to provide for
their family in the simple article of food, yet they
cannot realize a capital to divide among their
children, and enable them to undertake the culti-
vation of fresh land. Though this necessary ca-
pital might be very small, yet even this small sum
the farmer perhaps cannot acquire; for when he
grows a greater quantity of corn than usual, he
finds no purchaser for it,* and cannot convert it
into any permanent article which will enable any
of his children to command an equivalent portion

* Il y a fort peu de débit dans le pays, parceque la plupart des

habitans sont cultivateurs, et ¢lévent eux-mémes des bestiaux.—
Voy. de Pallas, tom. iv. p. 4.

174 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. 1.

of subsistence or labour in future.* He often,
therefore, contents himself with growing only
what is sufficient for the immediate demands of
his family, and the narrow market to which he is
accustomed. And if he has a large family, many
of his children probably fall into the rank of la-
bourers, and their further increase is checked, as
in the case of the labourer before described, by a
want of the means of subsistence.

It is not therefore a direct encouragement to
the procreation and rearing of children that is
wanted in these countries, in order to increase
their population; but the creation of an effectual
demand for the produce of the soil, by promoting
the means of its distribution. This can only be
effected by the introduction of manufactures, and
by inspiring the cultivator with a taste for them,
and thus enlarging the internal market.

The late empress of Russia encouraged both
manufacturers and cultivators; and furnished to
foreigners of either description capital free of all
interest for a certain term of years.{ These well

* In addition to the causes here mentioned, I have lately been
informed that one of the principal reasons why large tracts of rich
land lie uncultivated in this part of the world is the swarm of
locusts, which at certain seasons covers these districts, and from
the ravages of which it is impossible to protect the rising crop.

+ Tooke’s View of the Russian Empire, vol. ii. p. 242. The
principal effect, perhaps, of these importations of foreigners, was the
introduction of free men instead of slaves, and of German industry
instead of Russian indolence; but the introduction of that part of
capital which consists in machinery would be a very great point,

Ch. ix. Siberia, Northern and Southern. 175

directed efforts, added to what had been done by
Peter I., had, as might be expected, a considerable
effect; and the Russian territories, particularly the
Asiatic part of them, which had slumbered for cen-
turies witha population nearly stationary, or at most
increasing very languidly, seem to have made a sud-
den start of late years. Though the population of
the more fertile provinces of Siberia be still very in-
adequate to the richness of the soil; yet in some of
them agriculture flourishes in no inconsiderable
degree, and great quantities of corn are grown. In
a general dearth which happened in 1769, the pro-
vince of Isetsk was able, notwithstanding a scanty
harvest, to supply in the usual manner the foun-
deries and forges of the Ural, besides preserving
from: the horrors of famine all the neighbouring
provinces.* And in the territory of Krasnoyarsk,
on the shores of the Yenissey, in spite of the in-
dolence and drunkenness of the inhabitants, the
abundance of corn is so great that no instance has
ever been known of a general failure.f Pallas
justly observes that, if we consider that Siberia
not two hundred years ago was awilderness utterly
unknown, and in point of population even far
behind the almost desert tracts of North America,
we may reasonably be astonished at the present

and the cheapness of manufactures would soon give the cultivators
a taste for them.

* Voy. de Pallas, tom. iii. p. 10,

t Id. tom. iv. p. 3.

176 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

state of this part of the world, and at the multi-
tude of its Russian inhabitants, who in numbers
greatly exceed the natives.*

When Pallas was in Siberia, provisions in these
fertile districts, particularly in the environs of
Krasnoyarsk, were most extraordinarily cheap.
A pood, or forty pounds, of wheaten flour, was
sold for about two-pence halfpenny, an ox for five
or six shillings, and a cow for three or four.
This unnatural cheapness, owing to a want of vent
for the products of the soil, was perhaps the prin-
cipal check to industry. In the period which has
since elapsed, the prices have risen considerably ;{
and we may conclude therefore that the object
wanted has been in a great measure attained,
and that the population proceeds with rapid
strides.

Pallas, however, complains that the intentions
of the empress respecting the peopling of Siberia
were not always well fulfilled by her subordinate
agents, and that the proprietors to whose care
this was left, often sent off colonists, in every re-
spect unfit for the purpose in regard to age, disease
and want of industrious habits.4 Even the Ger-
man settlers in the districts near the Wolga are,
according to Pallas, deficient in this last point, |

* Voy. de Pallas, tom. iv. p. 6.

T Id. p.3.

} Tooke’s View of the Russian Empire, vol. iii. p 239,
§ Voy. de Pallas, tom. v. p. 5.

| Id. p. 253.

Chi ix. Siberia, Northern and Southern. 177

and this is certainly a most essential one. It may
indeed be safely asserted that the importation of
industry is of infinitely more consequence to the
population of a country, than the importation of
men and women considered only with regard to
numbers. Were it possible at once to change the
habits of a whole people, and to direct its industry
at pleasure, no government would ever be reduced
to the necessity of encouraging foreign settlers.
But to change long-existing habits is of all enter-
prises the most difficult. Many years must elapse
under the most favourable circumstances, before
the Siberian boor will possess the industry and
activity of an English labourer. And though the
Russian government has been incessant in its en-
deavours to convert the pastoral tribes of Siberia
to agriculture, yet many obstinately persist in
bidding defiance to any attempts that can be
made to wean them from their injurious sloth.*
Many other obstacles concur to prevent that
rapid growth of the Russian colonies, which the
procreative power would permit. Some of the
low countries of Siberia are unhealthy from the
number of marshes which they contain;f and

* Tooke’s Russian Empire, vol. iii. p. 313.

+ Voy. de Pallas, tom. iii. p. 16. Though in countries where
the procreative power is never fully called into action, unhealthy
seasons and epidemics have but little effect on the average popula-
tion; yet in new colonies, which are differently cireumstanced in
this respect, they materially impede its progress. This point is not
sufficiently understood. If in countries which were either station-
ary or increasing very slowly, all the immediate checks. to popula-

VOL. I. N

178 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i

ereat and wasting epizooties are frequent among
the cattle.* In the districts near the Wolga,
though the soil is naturally rich, yet droughts are
so frequent, that there is seldom more than one
good harvest out of three.t The colonists of
Saratof, after they had been settled for some years;
were obliged to remove on this account to other
districts; and the whole expense of building their
houses, amounting to above a million of rubles;
was remitted to them by the empress.{ For pur-
poses either of safety or convenience, the houses
of each colony are all built contiguous or nearly
so, and not scattered about upon the different
farms. A want of room is in consequence soon
felt in the immediate neighbourhood of the village,
while the distant grounds remain in a state of very
imperfect cultivation. On observing this in the
colony of Kotschesnaia, Pallas proposed that a
certain part should be removed by the empress
to other districts, that the remainder might be
left more at their ease. This proposal seems to

tion, which had been observed, were to continue in force, no
abundance of food could materially increase the number of people.
But the precise way in which such an abundance operates is by
diminishing the immediate checks which before prevailed. Those,
however, which may remain, either from the difficulty of changing
habits, or from any unfavourable circumstances in the soil or cli-
mate, will still continue to operate in preventing the procreative
power from producing its full effect.

* Voy. de Pallas, tom. iii. p. 17. tom. v. p. 411.

+ Id. tom. v. p. 252. et seq.

¢ Tooke’s Russian Empire, vol. ii. p. 245.

§ Voy. de Pallas, tom. v. p. 253.

Ch.ix. Siberia, Northern and Southern. 179

prove that spontaneous divisions of this kind did

not often take place, and that the children of the
colonists might not always find an easy mode of
settling themselves, and rearing up fresh families.

In the flourishing colony of the Moravian brethren
in Sarepta, it is said that the young people cannot
marry without the consent of their priests; and
that their consent is not in general granted till late.*
It would appear, therefore, that among the obsta-
cles to the increase of population, even in these
new colonies, the preventive check has its share:
Population can never increase with great rapidity
but when the real price of common labour is very
high, as in America; and from the state of society
in this part of the Russian territories, and the con-
sequent want of a proper vent for the produce of
industry, this effect, which usually accompanies
new colonies and is essential to their rapid growth,
does not take place in any considerable degree.

* Voy. de Pallas, tom. v. p. 175.

f Other causes may concur in restraining the population of Si-
beria, which have not been noticed by Pallas. In general, it
should be observed, with regard to all the immediate checks to
population, which I either have had or shall have occasion to men-
tion, that, as it is evidently impossible to ascertain the extent to
which each acts, and the proportion of the whole procreative power
which it impedes, no accurate inferences respecting the actual state
of population can be drawn from them @ priori. The prevailing
checks in two different nations may appear to be exactly the same
as to kind, yet if they are different in degree, the rate of increase
in each will, of course, be as different as possible. All that can
be done, therefore, is to proceed as in physical inquiries; that is,
first to observe the facts, and then account for them from the best
lights that can be collected.

N 2

( 180 ) Bk. i.

CHAP. X.

Of the Checks to Population in the Turkish Dominions
and Persia.

In the Asiatic parts of the Turkish dominions it
will not be difficult, from the accounts of travel-
lers, to trace the checks to population and the
causes of its present decay; and as there is little
difference in the manners of the Turks, whether
they inhabit Europe or Asia, it will not be worth
while to make them the subject of distinct con-
sideration.

The fundamental cause of the low state of po-
pulation in Turkey, compared with its extent.of
territory, is undoubtedly the nature of the govern-
ment. Its tyranny, its feebleness, its bad laws
and worse administration of them, together with
the consequent insecurity of property, throw such
obstacles in the way of agriculture that the means
of subsistence are necessarily decreasing yearly,
and with them, of course, the number of people.
The miri, or general land-tax paid to the sultan,
is in itself moderate ;* but by abuses inherent in
the Turkish government, the pachas and their
agents have found out the means of rendering it
ruinous. Though they cannot absolutely alter the
impost which has been established by the sultan,
they have introduced a multitude of changes, which,

* Voy. de Volney, tom. ii. c. xxxvii. p. 373. 8vo. 1787.

Ch. x. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 18]

without the name, produce all the effects of an
augmentation.* In Syria, according to Volney,
having the greatest part of the land at their dis-
posal, they clog their concessions with burden-
some conditions, and exact the half, and sometimes
even two-thirds, of the crop. When the harvest
is over, they cavil about losses, and as they have
the power in their hands, they carry off what they
think proper. Ifthe season fail, they still exact the
same sum, and expose every thing that the poor
peasant possesses to sale. To these constant op-
pressions are added a thousand accidental extor-
tions. Sometimes a whole village is laid under
contribution for some real or imaginary offence.
Arbitrary presents are exacted on the accession
of each governor; grass, barley and straw are de-
manded for his horses ; and commissions are mul-
tiplied, that the soldiers who carry the orders may
live upon the starving peasants, whom they treat
with the most brutal insolence and injustice.
The consequence of these depredations is that
the poorer class of inhabitants, ruined, and unable
any longer to pay the miri, become a burden to
the village, or fly into the cities ; but the miri is
unalterable, and the sum to be levied must be
found somewhere. The portion of those who are
thus driven from their homes falls on the remain-
ing inhabitants, whose burden, though at first
light, now becomes insupportable. If they should

* Voy. de Volney, tom. ii. c, xxxvii. p. 373.
+ Id. p.374.

182 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. i.

be visited by two years of drought and famine the
whole village is ruined and abandoned; and the
tax which it should have paid, is levied on the
neighbouring lands.*

The same mode of proceeding takes place with
regard to the tax on the Christians, which has been
raised by these means from three, five, and eleven
piastres, at which it was at first fixed, to thirty-
five and forty, which absolutely impoverishes
those on whom it is levied, and obliges them to
leave the country. It has been remarked that
these exactions have made a rapid progress during
the last forty years; from which time are dated
the decline of agriculture, the depopulation of the
country and the diminution in the quantity of
specie carried into Constantinople.f

The food of the peasants is almost every where
reduced to a little flat cake of barley or doura,
onions, lentils and water. Not to lose any part
of their corn, they leave in it all sorts of wild
grain, which often produce bad consequences.
In the mountains of Lebanon and Nablous, in time
of dearth, they gather the acorns from the oaks,
which they eat after boiling or roasting them in
ashes.{

By a natural consequence of this misery, the
art of cultivation is in the most deplorable state.
The husbandman is almost without instruments,
and those he has are very bad. His plough is fre-

* Voy. de Volney, tom. ii. c. xxxvii. p.375.
+ Id. p.376.
t Id. p.377.

Ch. x. the Turkish Dominions and Persia. 183

quently no more than the branch of a tree cut
below a fork, and used without wheels. The
ground is tilled by asses and cows, rarely by
oxen, which would bespeak too much riches. In
the districts exposed to the Arabs, as in Palestine,
the countryman must sow with his musket in his
hand; and scarcely does the corn turn yellow
before it is reaped, and concealed in subterraneous
caverns. As little as possible is employed for
seed-corn, because the peasants sow no more than
is barely necessary for their subsistence. Their
whole industry is limited to a supply of their im-
mediate wants; and to procure a little bread, a
few onions, a blue shirt, and a bit of woollen,
much labour is not necessary. <‘‘ The peasant
“‘ lives therefore in distress; but at least he does
‘not enrich his tyrants, and the avarice of des-
‘* potism is its own punishment.” *

This picture, which is drawn by Volney, in
describing the state of the peasants in Syria,
seems to be confirmed by all other travellers in
these countries ; and, according to Eton, it repre-
sents very nearly the condition of the peasants
in the greatest part of the Turkish dominions.t+
Universally, the offices of every denomination are
set up to public sale; and in the intrigues of the
seraglio, by which the disposal of all places is re-
gulated, every thing is done by means of bribes.
The pachas, in consequence, who are sent into
the provinces, exert to the utmost their power of

* Voy. de Volney, tom. ii. ¢. xxxvii, p.379.
+ Eton’s Turkish Emp. c. viii. 2d edit. 1799.

184 Of the Checks to Population in. Bk. 1.

extortion; but are always outdone by the officers
immediately below them, who, in their turn, leave
room for their subordinate agents.*

The pacha must raise money to pay the tribute,
and also to indemnify himself for the purchase of
his office, support his dignity, and make a provi-
sion in case of accidents; and as all power, both
military and civil, centres in his person from his
representing the sultan, the means are at his dis-
cretion, and the quickest are invariably considered
as the best.| Uncertain of to-morrow, he treats
his province as a mere transient possession, and
endeavours to reap, if possible, in one day the
fruit of many years, without the smallest regard
to his successor, or the injury that he may do to
the permanent revenue.{ :

The cultivator is necessarily more exposed to
these extortions than the inhabitant of the towns.
From the nature of his employment, he is fixed to
one spot, and the productions of agriculture do
not admit of being easily concealed. The tenure
of the land and the rights of succession are be-
sides uncertain. When a father dies, the inheri-
tance reverts to the sultan, and the children can
only redeem the succession by a considerable sum
of money. These considerations naturally occa-
sion an indifference to landed estates. The coun-
try is deserted; and each person is desirous of
flying to the towns, where he will not only in

* Eton’s Turkish Emp. c. ii. p. 55.
t Voy. de Volney, tom. ii. c. xxxiii. p.347.
t Id. p. 350.

Ch. x. the Turkish Dominions and Persia. 185

general meet with better treatment, but may hope
to acquire a species of wealth which he can more
easily conceal from the eyes of his rapacious
masters.*

To complete the ruin of agriculture, a maximum
is in many cases established, and the peasants are
obliged to furnish the towns with corn at a fixed
price. It isa maxim of Turkish policy, originat-
ing in the feebleness of the government and the
fear of popular tumults, to keep the price of corn
low in all the considerable towns. In the case of
a failure in the harvest, every person who pos-
sesses any corn is obliged to sell it at the price
fixed, under pain of death; and if there be none
in the neighbourhood, other districts are ransacked
for it.| When Constantinople is in want of pro-
visions, ten provinces are perhaps famished for a
supply.{ At Damascus, during the scarcity in.
1784, the people paid only one penny farthing a
pound for their bread, while the peasants in the
villages were absolutely dying with hunger.§ .

The effect of such a system of government on
agriculture need not be insisted upon. The causes
of the decreasing means of subsistence are but too
obvious; and the checks, which keep the popula-
tion down to the level of these decreasing re-
sources, may be traced with nearly equal certainty,
and will appear to include almost every species of
vice and misery that is known.

* Voy. de Volney, tom. ii. c. xxxvi. p. 369.
t Id. c. xxxviii. p.38.

} Id. c. xxxiii. p. 345.

§ Id. c. xxxviii. p. 381.

186 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. 1.

It is observed in general that the Christian
families consist of a greater number of children
than the Mahometan families in which polygamy
prevails.* This is an extraordinary fact; because
though polygamy, from the unequal distribution
of women which it occasions, be naturally unfa-
vourable to the population of a whole country ;
yet the individuals who are able to support a plu-
rality of wives, ought certainly, in the natural
course of things, to have a greater number of chil-
dren than those who are confined to one. The
way in which Volney principally accounts for this
fact is that, from the practice of polygamy, and
very early marriages, the Turks are enervated
while young, and impotence at thirty is very com-
mon.t Eton notices an unnatural vice as prevail-
ing in no inconsiderable degree among the com-
mon people, and considers it as one of the checks
to the population ;{ but the five principal causes
of depopulation which he enumerates, are,

1. The plague, from which the empire is never
entirely free.

2. Those terrible disorders which almost always
follow it, at least in Asia.

3. Epidemic and endemic maladies in Asia,
which make as dreadful ravages as the plague
itself, and which frequently visit that part of the
empire.

4. Famine.

* Eton’s Turkish Emp. c. vii. p. 275.

Tt Voy. de Volney, tom. ii. c. xl. p. 445.
{ Eton’s Turkish Emp. c. vii. p.275.

Ch. x. the Turkish Dominions and Persia. 187

5. And lastly, the sicknesses which always fol-
low a famine, and which occasion a much greater
mortality.*

He afterwards gives a more particular account
of the devastations of the plague in different parts
of the empire, and concludes by observing, that
if the number of the Mahometans have decreased,
this cause alone is adequate to the effect;+ and
that, things going on in their present train, the
Turkish population will be extinct in another cen-
tury.{ But this inference, and the calculations
which relate to it, are without doubt erroneous.
The increase of population in the intervals of these
periods of mortality is probably greater than he is
aware of. At the same time it must be remarked
that in a country where the industry of the hus-
bandman is confined to the supply of his neces-
sary wants, where he sows only to prevent himself
from starving, and is unable to accumulate any
surplus produce, a great loss of people is not easily
recovered ; as the natural effects arising from the
diminished numbers cannot be felt in the same
degree as in countries where industry prevails,
and property is secure.

According to the Persian legislator Zoroaster,
to plant a tree, to cultivate a field, to beget chil-
dren, are meritorious acts; but it appears from
the accounts of travellers, that many among the
lower classes of people cannot easily attain the

* Eton’s Turkish Emp. e. vii. p. 264.
+ Id. p. 291.
+ Id. p. 280.

188 Of the Checks to Populationin — Bk. i.

latter species of merit; and in this instance, as
in numberless others, the private interest of the
individual corrects the errors of the legislator.
Sir John Chardin says, that matrimony in Persia
is very expensive, and that only men of estates
will venture upon it, lest it prove their ruin.*
The Russian travellers seem to confirm this ac-
count, and observe that the lower classes of peo-
ple are obliged to defer marriage till late; and
that it is only among the rich that this union takes
place early.t

The dreadful convulsions to which Persia has
been continually subject for many hundred years
must have been fatal to her agriculture. The
periods of repose from external wars and internal
commotions have been short and few; and even
during the times of profound peace, the frontier
provinces have been constantly subject to the
ravages of the Tartars.

The effect of this state of things is such as
might be expected. The proportion of uncul-
tivated to cultivated land in Persia, Sir John
Chardin states to be ten to one;{ and the mode
in which the officers of the Shah and private
owners let out their lands to husbandmen is not
that which is best calculated to reanimate in-
dustry. The grain in Persia is also very subject
to be destroyed by hail, drought, locusts, and
other insects,§ which probably tends rather to

* Sir John Chardin’s Travels, Harris's Collect. b. iii. c. ii. p. 870.
¢ Découv. Russ. tom. ii. p. 293.

+ Chardin’s Travels, Harris’s Collect. b. iii, c. ii. p. 902.

§ Id.

Ch. x. the Turkish Dominions and Persia. 189

discourage the employment of capital in the culti-
vation of the soil.

The plague does not extend to Persia; but the
small-pox is mentioned by the Russian travellers
as making very fatal ravages.*

It will not be worth while to enter more mi-
nutely on the checks to population in Persia, as
they seem to be nearly. similar to those which
have been just described in the Turkish dominions.
The superior destruction of the plague, in Turkey,
is perhaps nearly balanced by the greater fre-
quency of internal commotions in Persia.

* Découv. Russ. tom. ii. p. 377.

( 190) Bk is

CHAP. XI.
- Of the Checks to Population in Indostan and Tibet.

Iw the ordinances of Menu, the Indian legislator,
which Sir Wm. Jones has translated, and called
the Institutes of Hindu Law, marriage is very
greatly encouraged, and a male heir is considered
as an object of the first importance. ’

«« By a son a man obtains victory over all peo-
“ple; by a son’s son he enjoys immortality; and
“ afterwards by the son of that grandson he reaches
“the solar abode.”

<¢ Since the son delivers his father from the hell,
“named Put, he was therefore called puttra, by
** Brahma himself.”*

Among the different nuptial rites, Menu has
ascribed particular qualities to each.

« A son of a Brahmi, or wife by the first cere-
“mony, redeems from sin, if he perform virtuous
“* acts, ten ancestors, ten descendants and himself,
“‘ the twenty-first person.”

«A son born of a wife by the Daiva nuptials

* Sir William Jones’s Works, vol. iii. c. ix. p. 354. Speaking
of the Indian laws, the Abbé Raynal says, ‘‘ La population est un
“* devoir primitif, un ordre de la nature si sacré, que la loi permet
“* de tromper, de mentir, de se parjurer pour favoriser un mariage.”
Hist, des Indes, tom. i. 1. i. p. 81. 8vo. 10 vols. Paris, 1795.

Ch. xi. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 191

«¢ redeems seven and seven, in higher and lower
«degrees; of a wife by the Arsha, three and
“three; of a wife by the Pradpatya, six and
‘Psix,!*

A housekeeper is considered as of the most
eminent order. ‘‘ The divine sages, the manes,
“ the gods, the spirits and guests pray for bene-
“‘ fits to masters of families.f An elder brother
not married before the younger, is mentioned
among the persons who are particularly to be
shunned.{

Such ordinances would naturally cause mar-
riage to be considered a religious duty; yet it
seems to be rather a succession of male heirs,
than a very numerous progeny, that is the object
so much desired.

«The father having begotten a son, discharges
“his debt to his own progenitors.”

*« That son alone, by whose birth he discharges
“ the debt, and through whom he attains immor-
“< tality, was begotten from a sense of duty; all
‘‘ the rest are considered by the wise as begotten
*«« from love of pleasure.”§ .

A widow is on some occasions allowed to have
one son by the brother, or some appointed kins-
man of the deceased husband, but on no account
a second. ‘“ The first object of the appoint~
“ment being obtained according to law, both

io 2)

ir Wm. Jones’s Works, vol. iii. c. iii. p. 124.

192 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

‘“‘ the brother and sister must live together like a
“‘ father and daughter by affinity.”*

In almost every part of the ordinances of Menu,
sensuality of all kinds is strongly reprobated, and
chastity inculcated as a religious duty.

« A man by the attachment of his organs to
‘sensual pleasures incurs certain guilt; but
** having wholly subdued them, he hence attains
“« heavenly bliss.”

«* Whatever man may obtain all those gratifi-
‘‘ cations, or whatever man may resign them
“completely, the resignation of all pleasures is
‘“‘ far better than the attainment of them.’’f

It is reasonable to suppose that such passages
might, in some degree, tend to counteract those
encouragements to increase, which have been be-
fore mentioned; and might prompt some religious
persons to desist from further indulgences, when
they had obtained one son, or to remain more
contented than they otherwise would have been
in an unmarried state. Strict and. absolute
chastity seems indeed to supersede the obligation
of having descendants.

‘«« Many thousands of Brahmens having avoided
‘‘ sensuality from their early youth, and having
“‘ left no issue in their families, have ascended
“‘ nevertheless to Heaven.”

** And like those abstemious men, a virtuous
‘‘ wife ascends to Heaven though she have no

* Sir William Jones’s Works, vol. iii. c, ix. p. 343.
T Id. vol. iii. c, ii, p. 96.

Ch. xi. Indostan and Tibet. 193

<« child, if after the decease of her lord she devote
«‘ herself to pious austerity.*

The permission to a brother or other kinsman
to raise up an heir for the deceased husband,
which has been noticed, extends only to women
of the servile class.t Those of the higher classes
are not even to pronounce the name of another
man, but ‘to continue till death forgiving all
«© injuries, performing harsh duties, avoiding every
«« sensual pleasure, and cheerfully practising the
«« incomparable rules of virtue.”’f

Besides these strict precepts relating to the
government of the passions, other circumstances
would perhaps concur to prevent the full effect
of the ordinancés which encourage marriage.

The division of the people into classes, and the
continuance of the same profession in the same
family, would be the means of pointing out to
each individual, in a clear and distinet manner, his
future prospects respecting a livelihood; and from
the gains of his father he would be easily enabled
to judge whether he could support a family by
the same employment. And though, when a man
cannot gain a subsistence in the employments
appropriate to his class, it is allowable for him,
under certain restrictions, to seek it in another;
yet some kind of disgrace seems to attach to this
expedient ; and it is not probable that many per-

* Sir William Jones’s Works, vol. iii. c. v. p. 221.
+ Id. c. ix. p. 343.
t Id. c. v. p. 221.

VOL. I. O

194 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

sons would marry with the certain prospect of
being obliged thus to fall from their class, and to
lower in so marked a manner their condition in
life.

In addition to this, the choice of a wife seems
to be a point of considerable difficulty. A man
might remain unmarried for some time, before he
could find exactly such a companion as the legis-
lator prescribes. Ten families of a certain de-
scription, be they ever so great or ever so rich in
kine, goats, sheep, gold and grain, are studiously
to be avoided. Girls with too little or too much
hair, who are too talkative, who have bad eyes,
a disagreeable name or any kind of sickness, who
have no brother, or whose father is not well
known, are all, with many others, excluded; and
the choice will appear to be in some degree con-
fined, when it must necessarily rest upon a girl
«< whose form has no defect; who has an agree-
‘‘ able name; who walks gracefully, like a phen1-
“‘ copteros or a young elephant; whose hair and
“‘ teeth are moderate respectively in quantity and
“* size; whose body has exquisite softness.”*

It is observed, that a woman of the servile class
is not mentioned, even in the recital of any an-
cient story, as the wife of a Brahmen or of a
Cshatriya, though in the greatest difficulty to
find a suitable match; which seems to imply, that
such a difficulty might sometimes occur.t

* Sir William Jones’s Works, vol. iii. c. iii, p. 120.
¢ Id. p..12].

Ch. Xi. Indostan and Tibet. 195

Another obstacle to marriage arising from
Hindoo customs is, that an elder brother who does
not marry seems in a manner to confine all his
other brothers to the same state; for a younger
brother, who marries before the elder, incurs dis-
grace, and is mentioned among the persons who
ought to be shunned.*

The character, which the legislator draws. of
the manners and dispositions of the women in
India, is extremely unfavourable. Among many
other passages expressed with equal severity, he
observes, that, ‘“‘ through, their passion for men,
‘their, mutable temper, their want of settled
** affection and. their perverse nature, let them be
‘** cuarded inthis world ever so well, they soon
** become alienated from their husbands.”

This character, if true, probably proceeded
from their never being allowed the smallest de-
gree of liberty,{ and from the state of degrada-
tion to which they were reduced by the practice of
polygamy; but however this may be, such pas-
sages tend strongly to shew that illicit inter-
eourse between the sexes was frequent, notwith-
standing the laws against adultery. These laws
are noticed as not relating to the wives of public
dancers or singers, or of such base men as lived
by the intrigues of their wives;{ a proof that
these characters were not uncommon, and were

* Sir William Jones’s Works, vol. iii, c. iii, p. 141.
T Id.c. ix. p. 337.

t Idve.v. p. 219.

t Id. c. viii. p. 325.

0 2

196 Of the Checks to Population in - Bk. 1.

to a certain degree permitted. Add to this, that
the practice of polygamy* among the rich would
sometimes render it difficult for the lower classes
of people to obtain wives; and this difficulty
would probably fall particularly hard on those,
who were redticed to the condition of slaves.

From all these circumstances combined, it
seems probable that among the checks to’ popula-
tion in India the preventive check would have
its share; but-from the prevailing habits and
opinions of the people, there is reason to believe
that the tendency to early marriages was still
always predominant, and in general prompted
every person to enter into this ‘state, who could
look forward to the slightest chance of being able
to maintain a family. The natural consequence
of this was, that the lower classes of people were
reduced to extreme poverty, and were com-
pelled to adopt the most frugal and scanty mode
of subsistence. This frugality was still further
increased, and extended in some degree to the
higher classes of society, by its being considered
as an eminent virtue.| The population would
thus ‘be pressed hard against the limits of the
means of subsistence, and the food of the country
would be meted out to the major part of the
people in the smallest shares that could support
life. In such a state of things every failure in
the crops from unfavourable seasons would be
felt most severely ; and India, as might be ex-

* Sir William Jones’s Works, vol. iii.c. ix. p. 346, 347.
} Id. c. iii. p. 133.

Ch. xi. Indostan and Tibet. 197

pected, has in all ages been subject to the most
dreadful famines.

A part of the ordinances of Menu is expressly
dedicated to the consideration of times of dis-
tress, and instructions are given to the different
classes respecting their conduct during these
periods. Brahmens pining with hunger and want
are frequently mentioned* and certain ancient
and virtuous characters are described, who had
done impure and unlawful acts, but who were
considered by the legislator as justified on ac-
count of the extremities to which they were re-
duced.

« Ajigarta, dying with hunger, was going to
* destroy his own son by selling him for some
“‘ cattle; yet he was guilty of no crime, for he
*‘ only sought a remedy against famishing.”

“« Vamadéva, who well knew right and wrong,
‘‘ was by no means rendered impure, though de-
‘* sirous, when oppressed by hunger, of eating the
“ flesh of dogs.”

*¢ Viswamitra too, than whom none knew better
‘“‘the distinctions between virtue and vice, re-
“< solved, when he was perishing with hunger,
“to eat the haunch of a dog, which he had re-
“« ceived from a Chauddla.”}

If these great and virtuous men of the highest
class, whom all persons were under the obliga-
tion of assisting, could be reduced to such ex-

* Sir William Jones's Works, vol. iii. c. iv. p. 165. c. x. p. 397.
t Id, c. x. p. 397, 398,

198 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

tremities, we may easily conjecture what must
have been the sufferings of the lowest class.

Such passages clearly prove the existence of
seasons of the most severe distress, at the early
period when these ordinances were composed ;
and we have reason to think, that they have oc-
curred at irregular intervals ever since. One of
the Jesuits says that it is impossible for him to
describe the misery to which he was witness
during the two-years’ famine in 1737 and 1738;*
but the description which he gives of it, and of the
mortality which it occasioned, is sufficiently dread-
ful without further detail. Another Jesuit, speak-
ing more generally, says, “« Every year we bap-
“tize a thousand children, whom their parents
“can no longer feed, or who, being likely to die,
“‘ are sold to us by their mothers, in order to get
«rid of them.”

The positive checks to population would of
course fall principally upon the Sudra class, and
those still more miserable beings, who ‘are the
outcasts of all the classes and are not even suf-
fered to live within the towns.{

On this part of the population the epidemics,
which are the consequences of indigence and bad
nourishment, and the mortality among young
children, would necessarily make great ravages:
and thousands of these unhappy wretches would
probably be swept off in a period of scarcity, be-

* Lettres Edif. tom. xiv. p. 178.
+ Id. p. 284.

{ Sir William Jones’s Works, vol. iii. c. x. p. 390.

SS

Ch. xi. Indostan and Tibet. 199

fore any considerable degree of want had reached
the middle classes of the society. The Abbé
Raynal says (on what authority I know not), that,
when the crops of rice fail, the huts of these poor
outcasts are set on fire, and the flying inhabitants
shot by the proprietors of the grounds, that they
may not consume any part of the produce.*

The difficulty of rearing a family even among
the middle and higher classes of society, or the
fear of sinking from their cast, has driven the
people in some parts of India to adopt the most
cruel expedients to prevent a numerous offspring.
In a tribe on the frontiers of Junapore, a district
of the province of Benares, the practice of de-
stroying female infants has been fully substan-
tiated. The mothers were compelled to starve
them. The reason that the people gave for this
cruel practice was the great expense of procuring
suitable matches for their daughters. One village
only furnished an exception to this rule, and in
that village several old maids were living.

It will naturally occur, that the race could not
be continued upon this principle: but it appeared
that the particular exceptions to the general rule
and the intermarriages with other tribes were suf-
ficient for this purpose. The East-India Company
obliged these people to enter into an engagement
not to continue this inhuman practice.

On the coast of Malabar the Nayrs do not enter

* Hist. des Indes, tom. i. liv. i. p. 97. 8vo, 10 vols. Paris, 1795.
+ Asiatic Researches, vol. iv, p. 354.

200 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

into regular marriages, and the right of inheritance
and succession rests in the mother of the brother,
or otherwise goes to the sister’s son, the father of
the child being always considered as uncertain.

Among the Brahmens, when there are more
brothers than one, only the elder or eldest of them
marries. The brothers, who thus maintain celi-
bacy, cohabit with Nayr women without marriage
in the way of the Nayrs. If the eldest brother
has not a son, then the next brother marries.

Among the Nayrs, it is the custom for one Nayr
woman to have attached to her two males, or four,
or perhaps more.

The lower casts, such as carpenters, ironsmiths,
and others, have fallen into the imitation of their
superiors, with this difference, that the joint con-
cern in one woman is confined to brothers and
male relations by blood, to the end that no alien-
ation may take place in the course of the succes-
sion.*

Montesquieu takes notice of this custom of the
Nayrs on the coast of Malabar, and accounts for
it on the snpposition that it was adopted in order
to weaken the family ties of this cast, that as sol-
diers they might be more at liberty to follow the
calls of their profession: but I should think that
it originated more probably in a fear of the poverty
arising from a large family, particularly as the

custom seems to have been adopted by the other
classes.f

Gs Asiatic Researches, vol. v.-p. 14.
+ Esprit des Loix, liv. xvi. c. 5.

o> oP ore

Ch. x1. Indostan and Tibet. 201

In Tibet, according to Turner’s account of that
country, a custom of this kind prevails generally.
Without pretending absolutely to determine the
question of its origin, Mr. Turner leans to the
supposition that it arose from the fear of a popu-
lation too great for an unfertile country. From
travelling much in the east he had probably been
led to observe the effects necessarily resulting
from an overflowing population, and is in conse-
quence one among the very few writers, who see
these effects in their true light. He expresses
himself very strongly on this subject, and, in refe-
rence to the above custom, says, “ It certainly
“‘ appears, that a superabundant population in an
“unfertile country must be the greatest of all
‘calamities, and produce eternal warfare or
‘eternal want. Either the most active and the
“‘ most able part of the community must be com-
“‘ pelled to emigrate, and to become soldiers of
‘«« fortune or merchants of chance; or else, if they
‘remain at home, be liable to fall a prey to
<« famine in consequence of some accidental failure
“in their scanty crops. By thus linking whole
“families together in the matrimonial yoke, the
“too rapid increase of population was perhaps
*< checked, and an alarm prevented, capable of
“ pervading the most fertile region upon the earth,
* and of giving birth to the most inhuman and
“ unnatural practice, in the richest, the most pro-
“ductive and the most populous country in the
“world. I allude to the Empire of China, where
“a mother, not foreseeing the means of raising or

202 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. 1.

‘‘ providing for a numerous family, exposes her
‘* new-born infant to perish in the fields ; a crime,
‘«< however odious, by no means I am assured. un-
“* frequent.’ *

_ Inalmost every country of the globe individuals
are compelled by considerations of private interest
to habits, which tend to repress the natural in-
crease of population; but Tibet is perhaps the
only country, where these habits are universally
encouraged by the government, and where to re-
press rather than to encourage population seems
to be a public object.

In the first career of life the Bootea is recom-
mended to distinction by a continuance in a state
of celibacy; as any matrimonial contract proves
almost a certain hinderance to his rise in rank, or
his advancement to offices of political importance.
Population is thus opposed by the two powerful
bars of ambition and religion; and the higher
orders of men, entirely engrossed by political or
ecclesiastical duties, leave to the husbandman and
labourer, to those who till the fields and live by

their industry, the exclusive charge of propa-
gating the species.

Hence religious retirement is frequent,{ and
the number of monasteries and nunneries is consi-
derable. The strictest laws exist to prevent a
woman from accidentally passing a night within
the limits of the one, or a man within those of the

* Turner's Embassy to Tibet, part ii. c. x. p, 351.
f Id. c. i. p. 172.
+OMe

Ch. xi. Indostan and Tibet. 203

other; and a regulation is framed completely to
obviate abuse, and establish respect towards the
sacred orders of both sexes,

The nation is divided into two distinct and
separate classes, those who carry on the business
of the world, and those who hold intercourse with
heaven. No interference of the laity ever inter-
rupts the regulated duties of the clergy. The
latter, by mutual compact, take charge of all spi-
ritual concerns; and the former by their labours
enrich and populate the state.*

But even among the laity the business of popu-
lation goes on very coldly. All the brothers of a
family, without any restriction of age or of num-
bers, associate their fortunes with one female, who
is chosen by the eldest, and considered as the
mistress of the house; and whatever may be the
profits of their several pursuits, the result flows
into the common store.t

The number of husbands is not apparently de-
fined, or restricted within any limits. It some-
times happens that in a small family there is but
one male; and the number, Mr. Turner says, may
seldom exceed that which a native of rank at
Teshoo Loomboo pointed out to him in a family
resident in the neighbourhood, in- which five
brothers were then living together very happily
with one female under the same connubial com-

* Turner's Embassy, part ii. c. viii. p. 312.

t Id. c. x. p. 348. 350.

204 Of the Checks to Population in Bk i.

pact. Nor is this sort of league confined to the
lower ranks of people alone; it is found also fre-
quently i in the most opulent families.*

It is evident that this custom, combined sith
the celibacy of such a numerous body of ecclesi-
astics, must operate in the most powerful manner
as a preventive check to population. Yet, not-
withstanding this excessive check, it would ap-
pear, from Mr. Turner's account of the natural
sterility of the soil, that the population is kept up
to the level of the means of subsistence; and this
seems to be confirmed by the number of beggars
in Teshoo Loomboo. On these beggars, and the
charity which feeds them, Mr. Turner's remark,
though common, is yet so just and important that
it cannot be too often repeated.

“Thus I unexpectedly discovered,” he says,
‘‘ where I had constantly seen the round of life
‘moving in a tranquil regular routine, a mass of
‘‘ indigence and idleness, of which I had no idea.
«« But yet it by no means surprised me, when I
** considered that, wherever indiscriminate charity
“* exists, it will never want objects on which to
‘< exercise its bounty, but will always attract ex-
‘* pectants more numerous than it has the means
‘* to gratify. No human being can suffer want at
**Teshoo Loomboo. It is on this humane dispo-
‘‘ sition, that a multitude even of Musselmen, of
“‘a frame probably the largest and most robust in

* Turner’s Embassy, part ii. c. x. p. 349.

Ch, xi. Indostan and Tibet. 205

“the world, place their reliance for the mere
“* maintenance of a feeble life; and besides these,
«‘ T am informed, that no less than three hundred
** Hindoos, Goseins, and Sunniasses, are daily fed
** at this place by the Lama’s bounty.”*

* Turner's Embassy, part ii. c. ix. p. 330.

|

( 206.) Bk it

CHAP. XII.

Of the Checks to Populationin China and Japan.

Tue account, which has lately been given of the
population of China, is so extraordinary as to
startle the faith of many readers, and tempt them
to suppose, either that some accidental error must
have crept into the calculations from an ignorance
of the language; or that the mandarin, who gave
Sir George Staunton the information, must have
been prompted by a national pride, (which is
common every where, but particularly remark-
able in China,) to exaggerate the power and
resources of his country. It must be allowed that
neither of these circumstances is very improbable;
at the same time it will be found that the state-
ment of Sir George Staunton does not very essen-
tially differ from other accounts of good authority:
and, so far from involving any contradiction, is
rendered probable by a reference to those descrip-
tions of the fertility of China, in which all the
writers who have visited the country agree.
According to Duhalde, in the poll made at the
beginning of the reign of Kang-hi, there were
found 11,052,872 families, and 59,788,364 men
able to bear arms; and yet neither the princes,
nor the officers of the court, nor the mandarins,
nor the soldiers who had served and been dis-

Ch. xii. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 207

charged; nor the literati, the licentiates, the doc-
tors, the bonzas, nor young persons under twenty
years of age, nor the great multitudes living either
on the sea or on rivers in barks, are compre-
hended in this number.*

The proportion, which the number of men of a
military age bears to the whole population of any
country, is generally estimated as 1 to 4. If we
multiply 59,788,364 by 4, the result will be
239,153,456; but im the general calculations on
this subject, a youth is considered as capable of
bearing arms before he is twenty. We ought
therefore to have multiplied by a higher number.
The exceptions to the poll seem to include almost
all the superior classes’ of society, and a very
great number among the lower. When all these
circumstances are taken into consideration, the
whole population, according to Duhalde, will not
appear to fall very short of the 333,000,000 men-
tioned by Sir George Staunton.t

The small number of families in proportion to
the number of persons able to bear arms, which
is a striking part of this statement of Duhalde, is
accounted for by a custom noticed by Sir George
Staunton as general in China. In the enclosure’
belonging to one dwelling, he observes that a
whole family of three generations, with all their
respective wives and children, will frequently be
found. One small room is made to serve for the

* Duhalde’s Hist. of China, 2 vols, folio, 1738. vol. i. p. 244.
+ Embassy to China, vol. ii. Appen. p. 615. 4to.

208 ‘Of the Checks to Population in — Bk. 1.

individuals of each family, sleeping in different
beds, divided only by mats hanging from the ceil-
ing. One common room is used for eating.* In
China there is besides a prodigious number of
slaves,t who will of course be reckoned as part of
the families to which they belong. These two
circumstances may perhaps be ‘sufficient to ac-
count for what at first appears to be a contradic-
tion inthe statement. ~ pitti

To account for this population, it will not be
necessary to recur to the supposition of Montes-
quieu, that the climate of China is in any peculiar
manner favourable to the production of children,
and that the women are more prolific than in any
other part of the world.{ The causes which have
principally contributed to produce this effect ap-
pear to be the following:

First, the excellence of the natural soil, and its
advantageous position in the warmest parts of the
temperate zone, a situation the most favourable to
the productions of the earth. Duhalde has a long
chapter on the plenty which reigns in China, in
which he observes, that almost all that other
kingdoms afford may be found in China; and that
China produces an infinite number of things,
which are to be found nowhere else. This plenty,
he says, may be attributed as well to the depth
of the soil, as to the painful industry of its inhabi-
tants, and the great number of lakes, rivers,

* Embassy to China, vol. ii. Appen. p. 155. 4to.
F Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 278.
} Esprit des Loix, liv. viii. c. xxi.

Ch. xi... China and Japan. 209

brooks and canals, wherewith the country is wa-
tered.*

Secondly, the very great encouragement that
from the beginning of the monarchy has been
given to agriculture, which has directed the la-
bours of the people to the production of the
greatest possible quantity of human subsistence.
Duhalde says, that what makes these people un-
dergo such incredible fatigues in cultivating the
earth is not barely their private interest, but
rather the veneration paid to agriculture, and
the esteem which the emperors themselves have
always had for it, from the commencement of the
monarchy. One emperor of the highest reputa-
tion was taken from the plough to sit on the
throne. Another found out the art of draining
water from several low countries, which were till
then covered with it, of conveying it in canals to
the sea, and of using these canals to render the
soil fruitful.ft He besides wrote several books on
the manner of cultivating land, by dunging, tilling
and watering it. Many other emperors expressed
their zeal for this art and made laws to promote
it; but none raised its esteem to a higher pitch
than Ven-ti, who reigned 179 years before Christ.
This prince, perceiving that his country was ruined
by wars, resolved to engage his subjects to culti-
vate their lands, by the example of ploughing
with his own hands the land belonging to his pa-

* Duhalde’s China, vol.i. p. 314.
+ Id. p. 274.

VOL. f. P

210 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. 1.

lace, which obliged all the ministers and great
men of his court to do the same.*

A great festival, of which this is thought to be
the origin, is solemnized every year in all the
cities of China on the day that the sun enters the
fifteenth degree of Aquarius, which the Chinese
consider as the beginning of their spring. The
emperor goes himself in a solemn manner to
plough a few ridges of land, in order to animate
the husbandman by his own example; and the
mandarins of every city perform the same cere-
mony.{ Princes of the blood and other illustrious
persons hold the plough after the emperor, and
the ceremony is preceded by the spring sacrifice,
which the emperor as chief pontiff offers to Shang-
ti, to procure plenty in favour of his people.

The reigning emperor in the time of Duhalde
celebrated this festival with extraordinary solem-
nity, and in other respects shewed an uncommon
regard for husbandmen. To encourage them in
their labours, he ordered the governors of all the
cities to send him notice every year of the person
in this profession, in their respective districts,
who was most remarkable for his application to
agriculture, for unblemished reputation, for pre-
serving union in his own family, and peace with
his neighbours, and for his frugality, and aversion
to all extravagance.{ The mandarins in their
different provinces encourage with honours the

* Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 275.
+ Id. ib.
t Id. p. 276.

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 211

vigilant cultivator, and stigmatize with disgrace
the man whose lands are neglected.*

In a country, in which the whole of the govern-
ment is of the patriarchal kind, and the emperor
is venerated as the father of his people and the
fountain of instruction, it is natural to suppose
that these high honours paid to agriculture would
have a powerful effect. In the gradations of rank,
they have raised the husbandman above the
merchant or mechanic;t and the great object of
ambition among the lower classes is to become
possessed of a small portion of land. The num-
ber of manufacturers bears but a very incon-
siderable proportion to that of husbandmen in
China;f{ and the whole surface of the empire is,
with trifling exceptions, dedicated to the produc-
tion of food for man alone. There is no meadow,
and very little pasture; neither are the fields cul-
tivated in oats, beans or turnips, for the support
of cattle of any kind. Little land is taken up for
roads, which are few and narrow, the chief com-
munication being by water. There are no com-
mons or lands suffered to lie waste by the neglect
or the caprice or for the sport of great proprietors.
No arable land lies fallow. The soil, under a hot
and fertilizing sun, yields annually in most in-
stances double crops; in consequence of adapting
the culture to the soil, and of supplying its defects
by mixture with other earths, by manure, by

* Lettres Edif. tom. xix. p, 132.

+ Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 272.

{ Embassy to China, Staunton, vol. ii. p. 544.
Pp 2

212 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

irrigation and by careful and judicious industry
of every kind. The labour of man is little diverted
from that industry, to minister to the luxuries of
the opulent and powerful, or in employments of
no real use. Even the soldiers of the Chinese
army, except during the short intervals of the
guards which they are called upon to mount, or
the exercises or other occasional services which
they perform, are mostly employed in agriculture.
The quantity of subsistence is increased also by
converting more species of animals and vegetables
to that purpose, than is usual in other countries.*

This. account, which is given by Sir George
Staunton, is confirmed by Duhalde and the other
Jesuits; who agree in describing the persevering
industry of the Chinese, in manuring, cultivating
and watering their lands, and their success in
producing a prodigious quantity of human sub-
sistence.t The effect ofsuch a system of agricul-
ture on population must be obvious.

Lastly, the extraordinary encouragements that
have been given to marriage, which have caused
the immense produce of the country to be divided
into very small shares, and have consequently
rendered China more populous, in proportion to
its means of subsistence, than perhaps any other
country in the world.

The Chinese acknowledge two ends in mar-

* Embassy to China, Staunton, vol. ii. p. 545.
+ Duhalde, chapter on Agriculture, vol. i. p. 272; chapter on
Plenty, p. 314. ;

Ch. xu. China and Japan. 213

riage;* the first is, that of perpetuating the sacri-
fices in the temple of their fathers; and the
second, the multiplication of the species. Duhalde
says, that the veneration and submission of chil-
dren to parents, which is the grand principle of
their political government, continues even after
death, and that the same duties are paid to them
as if they were living. In consequence of these
maxims, a father feels some sort of dishonour, and
is not easy in his mind, if he do not marry off all
his children; and an elder brother, though he
inherit nothing from his father, must bring up the
younger children and marry them, lest the family
should become extinct, and the ancestors be de-
prived of the honours and duties they are entitled
to from their descendants.}

Sir George Staunton observes that whatever is
strongly recommended, and generally practised, is
at length considered as a kind of religious duty; and
that the marriage unionas such takes place in China,
wherever there is the least prospect of subsist-
ence for a future family. This prospect however
is not always realized, and the children are then
abandoned by the wretched authors of their being;
but even this permission given to parents thus to
expose their offspring tends undoubtedly to faci-
litate marriage, and encourage population. Con-
templating this extreme resource beforehand, less

* Lettres Edif. et Curieuses, tom. xxiii. p. 448.
+ Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 303.
{ Embassy to China, vol, ii. p. 157.

214 Of the. Checks to Population in . Bk.1.

fear is entertained of entering into the married
state; and the parental feelings will-always step
forwards, to prevent a recurrence to it, except
under the most dire necessity. Marriage with
the poor is besides a measure of prudence, be-
cause the children, particularly the sons, are
bound to maintain their parents.*

The effect of these encouragements to marriage
among the rich, is to subdivide property, which
has in itself a strong tendency to promote popu-
lation. In China there is less inequality in the
fortunes than in the conditions of men. Property
in land has been divided into very moderate par-
cels, by the successive distribution of the posses-
sions of every father equally among his sons. It
rarely happens that there is but one son to enjoy
the whole property of his deceased parents; and
from the general prevalence of early marriages,
this property is not often increased by collateral
succession.{| These causes constantly tend to
level wealth; and few succeed to such an accumu-
lation of it, as to render them independent of any
efforts of their own for its increase. It is a com-
mon remark among the Chinese, that fortunes
seldom continue considerable in the same family
beyond the third generation.{

The effect of the encouragements to marriage
on the poor is to keep the reward of labour as low
as possible, and consequently to press them down

* Embassy to China, vol. ii. p. 157.
$Id. p. 151.
$Id. p. 152.

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 215

to the most abject state of poverty. Sir George
Staunton observes, that the price of labour is ge-
nerally found to bear as small a proportion every
where to the rate demanded for provisions, as the
common people can suffer; and that, notwith-
standing the advantage of living together in large
families, like soldiers in a mess, and the exercise
of the greatest economy in the management of
these messes, they are reduced to the use of vege-
table food, with a very rare and scanty relish of
any animal substance.*

Duhalde, after describing the painful industry
of the Chinese, and the shifts and contrivances
unknown in other countries, to which they have
recourse in order to gain a subsistence, says,
« Yet it must be owned, that, notwithstanding the
‘‘ great sobriety and industry of the inhabitants
«« of China, the prodigious number of them occa-
‘sions a great deal of misery. There are some
‘so poor that, being unable to supply their chil-
«dren with common necessaries, they expose
«« them in the streets.” ** ** “ In the great cities,
«such as Pekin and Canton, this shocking sight
«is very common.’

The Jesuit Premare, writing to a friend of the
same society, says, ‘“ I will tell you a fact, which
“may appear to be a paradox, { but is neverthe-
‘less strictly true. It is, that the richest and

* Embassy to China, Staunton, vol. ii. p. 156.
+ Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 277.
t Lettres Edif, et Curieuses, tom, xvi. p, 394.

216 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

** most flourishing empire of the world is notwith-
standing, in one sense, the poorest and the most
‘“« miserable of all. The country, however exten-
“sive and fertile it may be, is not sufficient to
“support its inhabitants. Four times as much
** territory would be necessary to place them at
“their ease. In Canton alone, there is, without
‘** exaggeration, more than a million of souls, and
“‘in a town three or four leagues distant a still
‘“‘ ereater number. Who then can count the inha-
‘‘ bitants of this province? But what is this to
“the whole empire, which contains fifteen great
‘* provinces, all equally peopled? To how many
** millions would sucha calculation amount? A
“third part of this infinite population would
“‘ hardly find sufficient rice to support itself pro-
“* perly.

“* It is well known, that extreme misery impels
*“* people to the most dreadful excesses. A spec-
‘“‘tator in China, who examines things closely,
“« will not be surprised that mothers destroy or
“expose many of their children; that parents sell
“‘ their daughters for a trifle; that the people
‘‘ should be interested; and that there should be
““such a number of robbers. The surprise is,
“‘ that nothing still more dreadful should happen;
“and that in the times of famine which are here
* but too frequent, millions of people should perish .
‘** with hunger, without having recourse to those
“‘ dreadful extremities, of which we read examples
‘in the histories of Europe.

“* It cannot be said in China, as in Europe, that

«
n

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 217

« the poor are idle, and might gain a subsistence,
«if they would work. The labours and efforts
«‘of these poor people are beyond conception.
«« A Chinese will pass whole days in digging the
“‘ earth, sometimes up to his knees in water, and
‘“‘in the evening is happy to eat a little spoonful
« of rice, and to drink the insipid water in which
“it was boiled. This is all that they have in ge-
“ neral.’*

A great part of this account is repeated in Du-
halde; and, even allowing for some exaggeration,
it shews in a strong point of view to what degree
population has been forced in China, and the
wretchedness which has been the consequence of
it. The population which has arisen naturally
from the fertility of the soil, and the encourage-
ments to agriculture, may be considered as ge-
nuine and desirable; but all that has been added
by the encouragements to marriage has not only
been an addition of so much pure misery in itself,
but has completely interrupted the happiness
which the rest might have enjoyed.

The territory of China is estimated at about
eight times the territory of France.t| Taking the
population of France only at 26 millions, eight
times that number will give 208,000,000; and
when the three powerful causes of population,
which have been stated, are considered, it will
not appear incredible, that the population of China

* Lettres Edif. et Curieuses, tom. xvi. p. 394. et seq.
+ Embassy to China, Staunton, vol. ii. p. 546.

218 Of the. Checks to Population in Bk. i.

should be to the population of France, according
to their respective superficies, as 333 to 208, or a
little more than 3 to 2.

The natural tendency to increase is every where
so great that it will generally be easy to account
for the height, at which the population is found
in'any country. The more difficult as well as the
more interesting part of the inquiry is, to trace the
immediate causes, which stop its further progress.
The procreative power would, with as much faci-
lity, double in twenty-five years the population
of China, as that of any of the states of America;
‘but we know that it cannot do this, from the pal-
pable inability of the soil to support such an
additional number. What then becomes of this
mighty power in China? And what are the kinds
of restraint, and the forms of premature death,
which keep the population down to the level of
the means of subsistence ?

Notwithstanding the extraordinary encourage-
ments to marriage in China, we should perhaps
be led into an error, if we were to suppose that
the preventive check to population does not ope-
rate. Duhalde says, that the number of bonzas
is considerably above a million, of which there are
two thousand unmarried at Pekin, besides three
hundred and fifty thousand more in their temples
established in different places by the emperor's
‘patents, and that the literary bachelors alone are
about ninety thousand.*

* Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 244.

Ch. xi. China and Japan. 219

The poor, though they would probably always
marry when the slightest. prospect opened to
them of being able to support .a.family, and, from
the permission of infanticide, would run great
risks in this respect; yet they would undoubtedly
be deterred from entering into this state, under
the certainty of being obliged to expose all their
children, or to sell themselves and families as
slaves; and from the extreme: poverty of »the
lower classes of people, such a certainty would
often present itself. But it is among the slaves
themselves, of which, according to Duhalde, the
misery in China produces a prodigious multitude,
that the preventive check to population princi-
pally operates. A man sometimes sells his son,
and.even himself and wife, at a very moderate
price. The common mode is, to mortgage them-
selves with a condition of redemption, and a great
number of men and maid servants are thus bound
in a family.* Hume, in speaking of the practice of
slavery among the ancients, remarks very justly,
that it will generally be cheaper to buy a full-
grown slave, than to rear up one from a child,
This observation appears to be particularly appli-
-cable to the Chinese. All writers agree in men-
tioning the frequency of the dearths in China;

* Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 278. La misére et le grand nom~
bre d'habitants de empire y causent cette multitude prodigieuse
d'esclaves : presque tous les valets, et g¢néralement toutes les filles
de service d'une maison sont esclaves. Lettres Edif. tom. xix. p,
145.

220 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 1.

and, during these periods, it is probable that slaves
would be sold in great numbers for little more
than a bare maintenance. It could very rarely
therefore answer to the master of a family, to
encourage his slaves to breed; and we may sup-
pose, in consequence, that a great part of the ser-
vants in China, as in Europe, remain unmarried.

The check to population, arising from a vicious
intercourse with the sex, does not appear to be
very considerable in China. The women are said
to be modest and reserved, and adultery is rare.
Concubinage is however generally practised, and
in the large towns public women are registered ;
but their number is not great, being proportioned,
according to Sir George Staunton, to the small
number of unmarried persons, and of husbands
absent from their families.*

The positive checks to population from disease,
though considerable, do not appear to be so great
as might be expected. The climate is in general
extremely healthy. One of the missionaries goes
so far as to say, that plagues or epidemic disor-
ders are not seen once in a century;} but this is
undoubtedly an error, as they are mentioned by
others as if they were by no means so unfrequent.
In some instructions to mandarins, relating to the
burying of the poor, who have in general no re-
gular places of sepulture, it is observed that when
epidemic diseases prevail, the roads are found

* Embassy to China, vol. ii. p. 157.
f Lettres Edif. tom, xxii. p. 187.

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 221

covered with bodies sufficient to infect the air to
a great distance ;* and the expression of years of
contagion} occurs soon after, in a manner which
seems to imply that they are not uncommon. On
the first and fifteenth day of every month the
mandarins assemble, and give their people a long
discourse, wherein every governor acts the part
of a father who instructs his family.{ In one of
these discourses, which Duhalde produces, the
following passage occurs: ‘‘ Beware of those
*‘ years which happen from time to time, when
“epidemic distempers, joined to a scarcity of
‘‘corn, make all places desolate. Your duty is
‘< then to have compassion on your fellow-citizens,
** and assist them with whatever you can spare.Ӥ

It is probable that the epidemics, as is usually
the case, fall severely on the children. One of
the Jesuits, speaking of the number of infants
whom the poverty of their parents condemns to
death the moment that they are born, writes thus:
‘‘ There is seldom a year, in which the churches
“at Pekin do not reckon five or six thousand
*< of these children purified by the waters of bap-
“tism. This harvest is more or less abundant
“< according to the number of catechists which we
“can maintain. If we had a sufficient number,
“their cares need not be confined alone to the
“‘ dying infants that are exposed. There would

* Lettres Edif. tom. xix. p. 126,
‘; Tar pela?.

t Duhalde’s China, vol. i. p. 254.
§ Id. 256.

222 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. i.

“be other occasions for them to exercise their
“zeal, particularly at certain times of the year,
*« when' the small-pox or epidemic disorders carry
‘< off an incredible number of children.”* It is
indeed almost impossible to suppose that the ex-
treme indigence of the lower classes of people
should not produce diseases, likely to be fatal to
a considerable part of those children whom their
parents might attempt to rear in spite of every
difficulty.

Respecting the number of infants which are
actually exposed, it is difficult to form the slightest
guess; but, if we believe the Chinese writers
themselves, the practice must be very common.
Attempts have been made at different times by
the government to put a stop to it, but always
without success. In a book of instructions before
alluded to, written by a mandarin celebrated for
his humanity and wisdom, a proposal is made for
the establishment of a foundling hospital in his
district, and an account is given of some ancient
establishments of the same kind,t which appear
to have fallen into disuse. In this book the fre-
quency of the exposure of children and the dreadful
poverty which prompts it, are particularly de-
scribed. ‘ We see,” he says, “ people so poor,
that they cannot furnish the nourishment neces-
sary for their own children. It is on this account
that they expose so great a*number. In the

* Lettres Edif. tom. xix. p. 100.
t Ibid. p. 110.

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 223

metropolis, in the capitals of the provinces and in
the places of the greatest commerce, their num-
ber is the most considerable; but many are found
in parts that are less frequented, and even in the
country. As the houses in towns are more crowded
together, the practice is more obvious; but every
where these poor unfortunate infants have need
of assistance.”*

In the same work, part of an edict to prevent
the drowning of children runs thus: ‘‘ When the
“ tender offspring just produced is thrown without
‘“pity into the waves, can it be said that the
‘* mother has given or that the child has received
« life, when it is lost as soon as it is begun to be
“* enjoyed? The poverty of the parents is the cause
‘‘ of this crime. They have hardly enough to sup-
‘« port themselves, much less are they able to pay
‘a nurse and provide for the expenses necessary
«for the support of their children. This drives
«them to despair; and not being able to bring
«« themselves to suffer two people to die that one
«« may live, the mother, to preserve the life of her
‘‘ husband, consents to sacrifice her child. — It
“costs much, however, to the parental feelings,
«« but the resolution is ultimately taken, and they
«‘ think that they are justified in disposing of the
« life of their child to prolong their own. If they
«exposed their children in a secret place, the
‘babe might work upon their compassion with
‘‘its cries. What do they do then? They throw

* Lettres Edif. tom, xix. p. 111.

294 Of the.Checks to Population in . Bk. i.

“it into the current of the river, that they may
«lose sight of it immediately, and take from it at
“* once all chance of life.”*

Such writings appear to be most authentic
documents respecting the general prevalence of
infanticide.

Sir George Staunton has stated, from the best
information which he could collect, that the num-
ber of children annuaily exposed at Pekin is about
two thousand;f but it is highly probable that the
number varies extremely from year to year, and
depends very much upon seasons of plenty or
seasons of scarcity. After any great epidemic or
destructive famine, the number is probably very
small; it is natural that it should increase gradu-
ally on the return to a crowded population; and
it is without doubt the greatest, when an unfavour-
able season takes place, at a period in which the
average produce is already insufficient to support
the overflowing multitude.

These unfavourable seasons do not appear to
‘be unfrequent, and the famines which follow them
are perhaps the most powerful of all the positive
checks to the Chinese population ; though at some
periods the checks from wars and internal com-
motions have not been inconsiderable.{ In the
annals of the Chinese monarchs, famines are often
mentioned ;{ and it is not probable that they

* Lettres Edif. tom. xix. p. 124.

t+ Embassy to China, vol. ii. p. 159.

+ Annals of the Chinese Monarchs. Duhalde’s China, vol. i.
p. 136.

§ Ibid.

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 225

would find a place among the most important
events and revolutions of the empire, if they were
not desolating and destructive to a great degree.

One of the Jesuits remarks that the occasions
when the mandarins pretend to shew the greatest
compassion for the people are, when they are ap-
prehensive of a failure in the crops, either from
drought, from excessive rains, or from some other
accident, such as a multitude of locusts, which
sometimes overwhelms certain provinces.* The
causes here enumerated are probably those, which
principally contribute to the failure of the har-
vests in China; and the manner in which they
are mentioned seems to shew that they are not
uncommon. |

Meares speaks of violent hurricanes, by which
whole harvests are dissipated, and a famine fol-
lows. From a similar cause, he says, accompa-
nied by excessive drought, a most dreadful dearth
prevailed in 1787, throughout all the southern
provinces of China, by which an incredible num-
ber of people perished. It was no uncommon
thing at Canton to see the famished wretch breath-
ing his last, while mothers thought it a duty to
destroy their infant children, and the young to
give the stroke of fate to the aged, to save them
from the agonies of such a dilatory death.

The Jesuit Parennin, writing to a member of
the Royal Academy of Sciences, says, “‘ Another
“thing that you can scarcely believe is, that

* Lettres Edif. tom. xix. p. 154.
t+ Meares’s Voyage, ch. vii. p, 92.
VOL. I. Q

226 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

‘«<dearths should be so frequent in China;”* and
in the conclusion of his letter he remarks that, if
famine did not, from time to time, thin the im-
mense number of inhabitants which China con-
tains, it would be impossible for her to live in
peace.t The causes of these frequent famines he
endeavours to investigate; and begins by observ-
ing, very justly, that in a time of dearth China
can obtain no assistance from her neighbours, and
must necessarily draw the whole of her resources
from her own provinces.{ He then describes the
delays and artifices, which often defeat the em-
peror’s intentions to assist, from the public gra-
naries, those parts of. the country which are the
most distressed. When a harvest fails in any
province, either from excessive drought or a sud-
den inundation, the great mandarins have recourse
to the public granaries; but often find them empty,
owing to the dishonesty of the inferior mandarins,
who have the charge of them. . Examinations and
researches are then made, and an unwillingness
prevails to inform the court of such disagreeable
intelligence. Memorials are however at length
presented. These memorials pass through many
hands, and do not. reach the emperor till after
many days. ‘The great officers of state are then
ordered to assemble, and to deliberate on the
means of relieving the misery of the people.
Declarations full of expressions of compassion for

* Lettres Edit. et Curieuses, tom. xxii. p. 174.
+ Id. p. 186.
t Id. p.175.

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 227

the people are in the mean time published through-
out the empire. The resolution of the tribunal is
at length made known; but numberless other
ceremonies delay its execution; while those who
are suffering have time to die with hunger, before
the remedy arrives. Those who do not wait for
this last extremity crawl as well as they can into
other districts, where they hope to get support,
but leave the greatest part of their number dead
on the road.*

If, when a dearth occurs, the court do not make
some attempt to relieve the people, small parties
of plunderers soon collect, and their numbers
increase by degrees, so as to interrupt the tran-
quillity of the province. On this account nume-
rous orders are always given, and movements are
continually taking place, to amuse the people till
the famine is over; and as the motives to relieve
the people are generally rather reasons of state
than genuine compassion, it is not probable that
they should be relieved at the time, and in the
manner, that their wants require. |

The last cause of famine, which is mentioned in
this investigation, and on which the writer lays
considerable stress, is the very great consumption
of grain in making spirits ;{ but in stating this as
a cause of famine, he has evidently fallen into ‘a
very gross error; yet in the Abbé Grosier’s gene-

* Lettres Edif. tom. xxii. p. 180.
+ Id. p. 187.
$ Id. p. 184.

Q2

228 Of the Checks to Populationin Bk. i.

ral description of China this error has been copied,
and the cause above mentioned has been consi-
dered as one of the grand sources of the evil.*
But, in reality, the whole tendency of this cause
is in a contrary direction. The consumption of
corn in any other way but that of necessary food,
checks the population before it arrives at the ut-
most limits of subsistence; and as the grain may
be withdrawn from this particular use in the time
of a scarcity, a public granary is thus opened,
richer probably than could have been formed by
any other means. When such a consumption has
been once established, and has become perma-
nent, its effect is exactly as if a piece of land,
with all the people upon it, were removed from
the country. The rest of the people would cer-
tainly be precisely in the same state as they were
before, neither better nor worse, in years of
average plenty; but in the time of dearth the
produce of this land would be returned to them,
without the mouths to help them to eat it. China,
without her distilleries, would certainly be more
populous; but on a failure of the seasons, would
have still less resource than she has at present;
and, as far as the magnitude of the cause would
operate, would in consequence be more subject
to famines, and those famines would be more
severe. »

The state of Japan resembles in so many re-

* Vol. i. b. iv. c. iii, p. 396. 8vo. Eng. tran.

.

Ch. xii. China and Japan. 229

spects that of China, that a particular considera-
tion of it would lead into too many repetitions.
Montesquieu attributes its populousness to the
birth of a greater number of females;* but the
principal cause of this populousness is, without
doubt, as in China, the persevering industry of
the natives, directed, as it has always been, prin-
cipally to agriculture.

In reading the preface to Thunberg’s account
of Japan, it would seem extremely difficult to
trace the checks to the population of a country,
the inhabitants of which are said to live in such
happiness and plenty; but the continuation of
his own work contradicts the impression of his
preface; and in the valuable history of Japan by
Keempfer these checks are sufficiently obvious.
In the extracts from two historical chronicles
published in Japan, which he produces,{ a very
curious account is given of the different mortali-
ties, plagues, famines, bloody wars and other.
causes of destruction, which have occurred since
the commencement of these records. The Japan-
ese are distinguished from the Chinese, in being
much more warlike, seditious, dissolute and ambi-
tious: and it would appear, from Kempfer’s ac-
count, that the check to population from infanti-
cide, in China, is balanced by the greater disso-

* Liv. xxiii, c. xii. It is surprising that Montesquieu, who
appears sometimes to understand the subject of population, should.
at other times make such observations as this.

+ Book ii. ‘

230 Of the Checks to Population, §c. Bk. i.

luteness of manners with regard to the sex, and
the greater frequency of wars and intestine com-
motions which prevail in Japan. With regard to
the positive checks to population from disease
and famine, the two countries seem to be nearly
on a level.

( 231)

CHAP. XIII.

Of the Checks to Population among the Greeks.

Ir has been generally allowed, and will not in-
deed admit of a doubt, that the more equal di-
vision of property among the Greeks and Romans,
in the early period of their history, and the di-
rection of their industry principally to agriculture,
must have tended greatly to encourage popula-
tion. Agriculture is not only, as Hume states,*
that species of industry, which is chiefly requisite
to the subsistence of multitudes, but it is in fact
the sole species by which multitudes can exist;
and all the numerous arts and manufactures of
the modern world, by which such numbers ap-
pear to be supported, have no tendency whatever
to increase population, except so far as they tend
to increase the quantity and to facilitate the dis-
tribution of the products of agriculture.

In countries where, from the operation of par-
ticular causes, property in land is divided into
very large shares, these arts and manufactures
are absolutely necessary to the existence of any
considerable population. Without them modern
Europe would be unpeopled. But where. pro-
perty is divided into small shares, the same ne-

* Essay xi. p. 467, 4to edit.

232 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

cessity for them does not exist. The division
itself attains immediately one great object, that
of distribution; and if the demand for men be
constant, to fight the battles and support the
power and dignity of the state, we may easily
conceive that this motive, joined to the natural
love of a family, might be sufficient to induce
each proprietor to cultivate his land to the
utmost, in order that it might support the great-
est number of descendants.

The division of people into smali states, during —
the early periods of Greek and Roman history,
gave additional force to this motive. Where the
number of free citizens did not perhaps exceed
ten or twenty thousand, each individual would
naturally feel the value of his own exertions; and
knowing that the state to which he belonged,
situated in the midst of envious and watchful
rivals, must depend chiefly on its population for
its means of defence and safety, would be sensible
that, in suffering the lands which were allotted
to him to lie idle, he would be deficient in his
duty as a citizen. These causes appear to have
produced a considerable attention to agriculture,
without the intervention of the artificial wants of
mankind to encourage it. Population followed
the products of the earth with more than equal
pace; and when the overflowing numbers were
not taken off by the drains of war or disease, they
found vent in frequent and repeated colonization.
The necessity of these frequent colonizations,
joined to the smallness of the states, which

Ch. xiii. among the Greeks. 233

brought the subject immediately home to every
thinking person, could not fail to point out to the
legislators and philosophers of those times the
strong tendency of population to increase beyond
the means of subsistence; and they did not, like
the statesmen and projectors of modern days,
overlook the consideration of a question, which so
deeply affects the happiness and tranquillity of
society. However we may justly execrate the
barbarous expedients which they adopted to re-
move the difficulty, we cannot but give them
some credit for their penetration in seeing it;
and in being fully aware that, if not considered
and obviated, it would be sufficient of itself to
destroy their best-planned schemes of republican
equality and happiness.

The power of colonization is necessarily limited ;
and after the lapse of some time it might be ex-
tremely difficult, if not impossible, for a country,
not particularly well suited for this purpose, to
find a vacant spot proper for the settlement of its
expatriated citizens. It was necessary therefore
to consider of other resources besides coloniza-
tion.

It is probable that the practice of infanticide
had prevailed from the earliest ages in Greece.
In the parts of America where it was found to
exist it appears to have originated from the ex-
treme difficulty of rearing many children in a
savage and wandering life, exposed to frequent
famines and perpetual wars. We may easily
conceive that it had a similar origin among the.

234 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

ancestors of the Greeks or the native inhabitants
of the country. And, when Solon permitted the
exposing of children, it is probable that he only
gave the sanction of law to a custom already
prevalent. .

In this permission he had without doubt two
ends in view. First, that which is most obvious,
the prevention of such an excessive population as
would cause universal poverty and discontent;
and, secondly, that of keeping the population up
to the level of what the territory could support,
by removing the terrors of too numerous a family,
and consequently the principal obstacle to mar-
riage. From the effect of this practice in China
we have reason to think that it is better calculated
to attain the latter than the former purpose. But
if the legislator either did not see this, or if the
barbarous habits of the times prompted parents
invariably to prefer the murder of their children
to poverty, the practice would appear to be very
particularly calculated to answer both the ends in
view ; and to preserve, as completely and as con-
stantly as the nature of the thing would permit,
the requisite proportion between the food and the
numbers which were to consume it.

On the very great importance of attending to
this proportion, and the evils that must necessarily
result, of weakness on the one hand, or of poyerty
on the other, from the deficiency or the excess of
population, the Greek political writers strongly
insist; and propose in consequence various modes
of mamtaining the relative proportion desired.

Ch. xiii. among the Greeks. 235

Plato, in the republic which he considers in his
books of laws, limits the number of free citizens
and of habitations to five thousand and forty; and
this number he thinks may be preserved, if the
father of every family choose ene out of his sons
for his successor to the lot of land which he has
possessed, and, disposing of his daughters in mar-
riage according to law, distribute his other sons,
if he have any, to be adopted by those citizens who
are without children. But if the number of chil-
dren upon the whole be either too great or too
few, the magistrate is to take the subject particu-
larly into his consideration, and to contrive so,
that the same number of five thousand and forty
families should still be maintained. There are
many modes, he thinks, of effecting this object.
Procreation, when it goes on too fast, may be check-
ed, or, when it goes on too slow, may be encou-
raged, by the proper distribution of honours and
marks of ignominy, and by the admonitions of the
elders, to prevent or promote it according to cir-
cumstances.*

In his Philosophical Republict he enters more
particularly into this subject, and proposes that
the most excellent among the men should be
joined in marriage to the most excellent among
the women, and the inferior citizens matched with
the inferior females ; and that the offspring of the
first should be brought up, of the others not. On

* Plato de Legibus, lib. v.
+ Plato de Republica, lib, v.

236 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

certain festivals appointed by the laws, the young
men and women who are betrothed are to be—
assembled, and joined together with solemn cere-
monies. But the number of marriages is to be
determined by the magistrates; that, taking into
consideration the drains from wars, diseases and
other causes, they may preserve, as nearly as pos-
sible, such a proportion of citizens, as will be nei-
ther too numerous nor too few, according to the
resources and demands of the state. The children,
who are thus born from the most excellent of the
citizens, are to be carried to certain nurses des-
tined to this office, inhabiting a separate part of
the city; but those which are born from the infe-
rior citizens, and any from the others which are
imperfect in their limbs, are to be buried in some
obscure and unknown place.

He next proceeds to consider the proper age
for marriage, and determines it to be twenty for
the women, and thirty for the men. Beginning
at twenty, the woman is to bear children for the
state till she is forty, and the man is to fulfil his
duty in this respect from thirty to fifty-five. If
a man produce a child into public either before
or after this period, the action is to be considered
in the same criminal and profane light as if he had
produced one without the nuptial ceremonies, and
instigated solely by incontinence. The same rule
should hold, if a man who is of the proper age
for procreation be connected with a woman who
is also of the proper age, but without the cere-
mony of marriage by the magistrate; he is to be

Ch. xiii. among the Greeks. 237

considered as having given to the state a spurious,
profane and incestuous offspring. When both
sexes have passed the age assigned for presenting
children to the state, Plato allows a great latitude
of intercourse; but no child is to be brought to
light. Should any infant by accident be born
alive, it is to be exposed in the same manner as if
the parents could not support it.*

From these passages it is evident that Plato
fully saw the tendency of population to increase
beyond the means of subsistence. His expedients
for checking it are indeed execrable; but the ex-
pedients themselves, and the extent to which they
were to be used, shew his conceptions of the mag-
nitude of the difficulty. Contemplating, as he
certainly must do in a small republic, a great pro-
portional drain of people by wars, if he could still
propose to destroy the children of all the inferior
and less perfect citizens, to destroy also all that
were born not within the prescribed ages and
with the prescribed forms, to fix the age of mar-
riage late, and after all to regulate the number of
these marriages, his experience and his reason-
ings must have strongly pointed out to him the
great power of the principle of increase, and the
necessity of checking it.

Aristotle appears to have seen this necessity
still more clearly. He fixes the proper age of
marriage at thirty-seven for the men, and eighteen
for the women, which must of course condemn a

* Plato de Repub. lib. v.

238 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

great number of women to celibacy, as there
never can be somany men of thirty-seven as there
are women of eighteen. Yet, though he has fixed
the age of marriage for the men at so late a pe-
riod, he still thinks that there may be too many
children, and proposes that the number allowed
to each marriage should be regulated; and, if any
woman be pregnant after she has produced the
prescribed number, that an abortion should be
procured before the foetus has hfe.

The period of procreating children for the state
is to cease with the men at fifty-four or fifty-five,
because the offspring of old men, as well as of
men too young, is imperfect both in body and
mind: . When both sexes have passed the pre-
scribed age, they are allowed to continue a con-
nexion; but, as in Plato’s republic, no child which
may be the result is to be brought to light.*

In discussing the merits of the republic pro-
posed by Plato in his books of laws, Aristotle is
of opinion that he has by no means been suffi-
ciently. attentive to the subject of population ;
and: accuses him of inconsistency in equalizing
property without limiting the number of children.
The laws on this subject, Aristotle very justly
observes, require to be much more definite and
precise in a state where property is equalized
than in others: Under ordinary governments an
increase of population would only occasion a
greater subdivision of landed property; whereas

* Aristotelis Opera, de Repub. lib. vii. c. xvi.

Ch. xiii. among the Greeks. 239

in such a republic the supernumeraries would be
altogether destitute, because the lands, being re-
duced to equal and as it were elementary parts,
would be incapable of further partition.*

He then remarks that it is necessary in all cases
to regulate the proportion of children, that they
may not exceed the proper number. In doing
this, deaths and barrenness are of course to be
taken into consideration. But if, as in the gene-
rality of states, every person be left free to have
as many children as he pleases, the necessary
consequence must be poverty; and poverty is the
mother of villany and sedition. On this account
Pheidon of Corinth, one of the most ancient
writers on the subject of politics, introduced a
regulation directly the reverse of Plato’s, and
limited population without equalizing posses-
sions.T

Speaking afterwards of Phaleas of Chalcedon,
who proposed, as a most salutary institution, to
equalize wealth among the citizens, he adverts
again to Plato’s regulations respecting property ;
and observes that those who would thus regulate
the extent of fortunes, ought not to be ignorant
that it is absolutely necessary at the same time
‘to regulate the number of children. For if chil-

* De Repub. lib. ii. c. vi. Gillies’s Aristot. vol. ii. b. ii, p. 87.
For the convenience of those who may not choose the trouble of
consulting the original, I refer at the same time to Gillies’s trans-
lation; but some passages he has wholly omitted, and of others
he has not given the literal sense, his object being a free version.

t De Repub. lib. ii. c. vii. Gillies’s Aristot, vol. ii. b. ii. p. 87.

240 Of the Checks to Population ‘Bk. i.

dren multiply beyond the means of supporting
them, the law will necessarily be broken, and
families will be suddenly reduced from opulence
to beggary,—a revolution always dangerous to
public tranquillity.*

It appears from these passages that Aristotle
clearly saw that the strong tendency of the human
race to increase, unless checked by strict and
positive laws, was absolutely fatal to every sys-
tem founded on equality of property; and there
cannot surely be a stronger argument against any
system of this kind than the necessity of such laws
as Aristotle himself proposes.

From a remark which he afterwards makes
respecting Sparta, it appears still more clearly
that he fully understood the principle of popula-
tion. From the improvidence of the laws relating
to succession, the landed property in Sparta had
been engrossed by a few; and the effect was
greatly to diminish the populousness of the coun-
try. To remedy this evil, and to supply men for
continual wars, the kings preceding Lycurgus had
been in the habit of naturalizing strangers. It
would have been much better however, according
to Aristotle, to have increased the number of
citizens by a nearer equalization of property.
But the law relating to children was directly ad-
verse to this improvement. The legislator, wish-
ing to have many citizens, had encouraged as
much as possible the procreation of children. A

* De Repub. lib. ii. c. vii. Gillies’s Aristot. vol. ii. b. ii. p. 91.

Ch. xiii. among the Greeks. 241

man who had three sons, was exempt from the
night-watch; and he who had four, enjoyed a
complete immunity from all public burdens. But
it is evident, as Aristotle most justly observes,
that the birth of a great number of children, the
division of the lands remaining the same, would
necessarily cause only an accumulation of po-
verty.*

He here seems to see exactly the error into
which many other legislators besides Lycurgus
have fallen; and to be fully aware that to en-
courage the birth of children, without providing
properly for their ‘support, is to obtain a very
small accession to the population of a country at
the expense of a very great accession of misery.

The legislator of Crete,t as well as Solon,
Pheidon, Plato and Aristotle, saw the necessity
of checking population in order to prevent general
poverty; and as we must suppose that the
opinions of such men, and the laws founded upon
them, would have considerable influence, it is
probable that the preventive check to increase,
from late marriages and other causes, operated
in a considerable degree among the free citizens
of Greece.

For the positive checks to population we need
not look beyond the wars in which these small
states were almost continually engaged; though
we have an account of one wasting plague, at

* De Repub. lib. ii. c. ix. Gillies’s Aristot. vol. ii. b. ii. p- 107.

t Aristot. de Repub. lib. ii. c. x. Gillies’s Aristot. vol. ii. b. ii.
p- 113.

VOL. I. R

242 Of the Checks to Population, &c. Bk. 1.

least, in Athens; and Plato supposes the case of
his republic being greatly reduced by disease.*
Their wars were not only almost constant, but
extremely bloody. In asmall army, the whole of
which would probably be engaged in close fight,
a much greater number in proportion would be
slain than in the large modern armies, a consider-
able part of which often remains untouched ;{ and
as all the free citizens of these republics were
generally employed as soldiers in every war, losses
would be felt very severely, and would not ap-
pear to be very easily repaired.

* De Legibus, lib. v.
+ Hume’s Essay, c. xi. p. 451.

|

CHAP. XIV.

Of the Checks to Population among the Romans.

Tue havoc made by war in the smaller states of
Italy, particularly during the first struggles of
the Romans for power, seems to have been still
greater than in Greece. Wallace, in his Disserta-
tion on the Numbers of Mankind, after alluding to
the multitudes which fell by the sword in these
times, observes, “ On an accurate review of the
“history of the Italians during this period, we
** should wonder how such vast multitudes could
*‘ be raised as were engaged in those continual
*« wars till Italy was entirely subdued.”* And
Livy expresses his utter astonishment that the
Volsci and ASqui, so often as they were conquered,
should have been able to bring fresh armies into
the field.t| But these wonders will perhaps be
sufficiently accounted for, if we suppose, what
seems to be highly probable, that the constant
drains from wars had introduced the habit of
giving nearly full scope to the power of popula-
tion; and that a much larger proportion of births,
and of healthy children were rising into manhood
and becoming fit to bear arms, than is usual in
other states not similarly circumstanced. It was,

* Dissertation, p. 62, 8vo. 1763, Edinburgh.
t+ Lib. vi. ¢. xii.
R 2

244 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

without doubt, the rapid influx of these supplies,
which enabled them, like the ancient Germans,
to astonish future historians, by renovating in so
extraordinary a manner their defeated and _half-
destroyed armies.

Yet there is reason to believe that the practice
of infanticide prevailed in Italy as well as in
Greece from the earliest times. A law of Romu-
lus forbad the exposing of children before they
were three years old,* which implies that the
custom of exposing them as soon as they were
born had before prevailed. But this practice
was of course never resorted to, unless when the
drains from wars were insufficient to make room
for the rising generation ; and consequently, though
it may be considered as one of the positive checks
to the full power of increase, yet, in the actual
state of things, it certamly contributed rather to
promote than impede population.

Among the Romans themselves, engaged as
they were in incessant wars from the beginning
of their republic to the end of it, many of which
were dreadfully destructive, the positive check to
population from this cause alone must have been
enormously great. But this cause alone, great as
it was, would never have occasioned that want
of Roman citizens under,the emperors which
prompted Augustus and Trajan to issue laws for
the encouragement of marriage and of children, if

* Dionysius Halicarn. lib. ii. 15.

Ch. xiv. among the Romans. 246

other causes, still more powerful in depopulation,
had not concurred.

When the equality of property, which had for-
merly prevailed in the Roman territory, had been
destroyed by degrees, and the land had fallen into
the hands of a few great proprietors, the citizens,
who were by this change successively deprived
of the means of supporting themselves, would
naturally have no resource to prevent them from
starving, but that of selling their labour to the
rich, as in modern states: but from this resource
they were completely cut off by the prodigious
number of slaves, which, increasing by constant
influx with the increasing luxury of Rome, filled
up every employment both in agriculture and
manufactures. Under such circumstances, so
far from being astonished that the number of free
citizens should decrease, the wonder seems to be
that any should exist besides the proprietors.
And in fact many could not have existed but for a
strange and preposterous custom, which, however,
the strange and unnatural state of the city might
perhaps require, that of distributing vast quan-
tities of corn to the poorer citizens gratuitously.
Two hundred thousand received this distribution
in Augustus’s time; and it is highly probable
that a great part of them had little else to depend
upon. Itis supposed to have been given to every
man of full years; but the quantity was not
enough for a family, and too much for an indivi-
dual.* It could not therefore enable them to in-

* Hume, Essay, xi, p. 488.

246 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

crease; and, from the manner in which Plutarch
speaks of the custom of exposing children among
the poor,* there is great reason to believe that
many were destroyed in spite of the jus trium libe-
rorum. The passage in Tacitus, in which, speak-
ing of the Germans, he alludes to this custom in
Rome, seems to point to the same conclusion.t
What effect, indeed, could sucha law have among
a set of people, who appear to have been so com-
pletely excluded from all the means of acquiring
a subsistence, except that of charity, that they
would be scarcely able to support themselves,
much less a wife and two or three children? If
half of the slaves had been sent out of the
country, and the people had been employed in
agriculture and manufactures, the. effect would
have been to increase the number of Roman citi-
zens with more certainty and rapidity than ten
thousand laws for the encouragement of children.

It is possible that the jus trium liberorum, and
the other laws of the same tendency, might have
been of some little use among the higher classes

* De Amore Prolis.

+ De Moribus Germanorum, 19. How completely the laws
relating to the encouragement of marriage and of children were
despised, appears from a speech of Minucius Felix in Octavio, cap.
30. ‘* Vos enim video procreatos filios nunc feris et acibus exponere,
“ nunc adstrangulatos misero mortis genere elidere ; sunt qua in ipsis
** visceribus medicaminibus epotis originem futuri hominis extinguant,
* et parricidum faciunt antequam pariant.”

This crime had grown so much into a custom in Rome, that
even Pliny attempts to excuse it; “Quoniam aliquarum fecunditas
plena liberis tali venia indiget.” Lib. xxix. c. iv.

Ch. xiv. among the Romans. 247

of Roman citizens; and indeed from the nature of
these laws, consisting as they did principally of
privileges, it would appear that they were directed
chiefly to this part of society. But vicious habits
of every possible kind preventive of population *
seem to have been so generally prevalent at this
period, that no corrective laws could have any
considerable influence. Montesquieu justly ob-
serves, that “‘ the corruption of manners had de-
“‘stroyed the office of censor, which had been
‘‘ established itself to destroy the corruption of
‘‘manners; but when the corruption of manners
‘becomes general, censure has no longer any
‘“‘force.”t Thirty-four years after the passing of
the law of Augustus respecting marriage, the
Roman knights demanded its repeal. On sepa-
rating the married and the unmarried, it appeared
that the latter considerably exceeded in number
the former; a strong proof of the inefficacy of the
law.f

In most countries vicious habits preventive of
population appear to be a consequence, rather
than a cause, of the infrequency of marriage; but
in Rome the depravity of morals seems to have
been the direct cause which checked the marriage
union, at least among the higher classes. It is

* Sed jacet aurato vix ulla puerpera lecto ;
Tantum artes hujus, tantum medicamina possunt,
Quz steriles facit, atque homines in ventre necandos
Conducit. ——Juvenal, Sat. vi. 593.

+ Esprit des Loix, liv. xxiii. c, 21.

{ Ibid.

248 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

impossible to read the speech of Metellus Numi-
dicus in his censorship without indignation and
disgust. ‘If it were possible,” he says, ‘ entirely
“ to go without wives, we would deliver ourselves
“at once from this evil; but as the laws of nature
«‘have so ordered it that we can neither live
“ happy with them nor continue the species with-
“‘ out them, we ought to have more regard for our
‘lasting security than for our transient plea-
“« sures.” *

Positive laws to encourage marriage and popu-
lation, enacted on the urgency of the occasion,
and not mixed with religion, as in China and some
other countries, are seldom calculated to answer
the end which they aim at, and therefore gene-
rally indicate ignorance in the legislator who pro-
poses them; but the apparent necessity of such
laws almost invariably indicates a very great de-
gree of moral and political depravity in the state ; -
and in the countries in which they are most
strongly insisted on, not only vicious manners
will generally be found to prevail, but political
institutions extremely unfavourable to industry,
and consequently to population.

On this account I cannot but agree with Wal-
lacet in thinking that Hume was wrong in his
supposition, that the Roman world was probably
the most populous during the long peace under
Trajan and the Antonines.{ We well know that

* Aulus Gellius, lib. i. c. 6.
+ Dissertation, Appendix, p. 247.
} Essay xi. p. 505.

Ch. xiv. among the Romans. 249

wars do not depopulate much while industry con-
tinues in vigour; and that peace will not increase
the number of people when they cannot find the
means of subsistence. The renewal of the laws
relating to marriage under Trajan, indicates the
continued prevalence of vicious habits and of a lan-
cuishing industry, and seems to be inconsistent
with the supposition of a great increase of popu-
lation.

It might be said perhaps that the vast profu-
sion of slaves would more than make up for the
want of Roman citizens; but it appears that the
labour of these slaves was not sufficiently directed
to agriculture to support a very great population.
Whatever might be the case with some of the pro-
vinces, the decay of agriculture in Italy seems to
be generally acknowledged. The pernicious cus-
tom of importing great quantities of corn to dis-
tribute gratuitously among the people had given
it a blow, which it never afterwards recovered.
Hume observes that ‘‘ when the Roman authors
‘complain that Italy, which formerly exported
‘corn, became dependent on all the provinces
“for its daily bread, they never ascribed this
“ alteration to the increase of its inhabitants, but
“ to the neglect of tillage and agriculture."* And
in another place he says, ‘‘ All ancient authors tell
‘‘ us that there was a perpetual influx of slaves to
‘Italy from the remoter provinces, particularly
*« Syria, Cilicia, Cappadocia, and the lesser Asia,

* Essay xi. p. 904.

250 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

“‘ Thrace, and Egypt; yet the number of people
*« did not increase in Italy ; and writers complain
‘‘ of the continual decay of industry and agrieul-
“ture.”* It seems but little probable that the
peace under Trajan and the Antonines should
have given so sudden a turn to the habits of the
people as essentially to alter this state of things.

On the condition of slavery it may be observed
that there cannot be a stronger proof of its unfa-
vourableness to the propagation of the species in
the countries where it prevails, than the necessity
of this continual influx. This necessity forms at
once a complete refutation of the observation of
Wallace, that the ancient slaves were more ser-
viceable in raising up people than the inferior
ranks of men in modern times.t Though it is
undoubtedly true, as he observes, that all our
labourers do not marry, and that many of their
children die, or become sickly and useless through
the poverty and negligence of their parents ;{ yet,
notwithstanding these obstacles to increase, there
is perhaps scarcely an instance to be produced
where the lower classes of society in any country,
if free, do not raise up people fully equal to the
demand for their labour.

To account for the checks to population which
-are peculiar to a state of slavery, and which render
a constant recruit of numbers necessary, we must
adopt the comparison of slaves to cattle which

* Essay xi. p. 433.
tT Dissert. on the Numbers of Mankind, p: 91.
t Id. p. 88.

Ch. xiv. among the Romans. 251

Wallace and Hume have made; Wallace, to shew
that it would be the interest of masters to take
care of their slaves and rear up their offspring ;*
and Hume, to prove that it would more frequently
be the interest of the master to prevent than to
encourage their breeding.| If Wallace’s obser-
vation had been just, it is not to be doubted that
the slaves would have kept up their own numbers
with ease by procreation; and as it is acknow-
ledged that they did nct do this, the truth of
Hume’s observation is clearly evinced. ‘‘ To rear
‘<a child in London till he could be serviceable,
«« would cost much dearer than to buy one of the
‘same age from Scotland or Ireland, where he
«had been raised in a cottage, covered with rags,
‘« and fed on oatmeal and potatoes. Those who had
** slaves therefore, in all the richer and more popu-
‘« lous countries, would discourage the pregnancy
*‘ of the females, and either prevent or destroy
“the birth.”{ It is acknowledged by Wallace
that the male slaves greatly exceeded in number
the females,{ which must necessarily be an addi-
tional obstacle to their increase. It would appear
therefore that the preventive check to population
must have operated with very great force among
the Greek and Roman slaves; and as they were
often ill treated, fed perhaps scantily, and some-
times great numbers of them confined together in

* Dissert. on the Numbers of Mankind, p. 89,
+ Hume, Essay xi. p. 433.

t Ibid.

§ Appendix to Dissertation, p. 182.

252 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

close and unwholesome ergastula, or dungeons,*
it is probable that the positive checks to popula-
tion from disease were also severe, and that when
epidemics prevailed, they would be most destrue-
tive in this part of the society.

The unfavourableness of slavery to the propa-
gation of the species in the country where it pre-
vails, is not however decisive of the question re-
specting the absolute population of such a country,
or the greater question respecting the populous-
ness of ancient and modern nations. We know
that some countries could afford a great and con-
stant supply of slaves without being in the small-
est degree depopulated themselves; and if these
supplies were poured in, as they probably would
be, exactly in proportion to the demand for labour
in the nation which received them, the question
respecting the populousness of this nation would
rest precisely on the same grounds as in modern
states, and depend upon the number of people
which it could employ and support. Whether the
practice of domestic slavery therefore prevail or
not, it may be laid down as a position not to be
controverted, that, taking a sufficient extent of
territory to include within it exportation and im-
portation, and allowing some variation for the
prevalence of luxury or of frugal habits, the po-
pulation of these countries will always be in pro-
portion to the food which the earth is made to
produce. And no cause, physical or moral, unless

* Hume, Essay xi. p. 430.

Ch. xiv. among the Romans. 253

it operate in an excessive and unusual manner,*
will have any considerable and permanent effect
on the population, except in as far as it influences
the production and distribution of the means of
subsistence.

In the controversy concerning the populousness
of ancient and modern nations this point has not
been sufficiently attended to; and physical and
moral causes have been brought forward on both
sides, from which no just inference in favour of
either party could be drawn. It seems to have
escaped the attention of both writers, that the
more productive and populous a country is in its
actual state, the less probably will be its power
of obtaining a further increase of produce; and
consequently the more checks must necessarily
be called into action, to keep the population down
to the level of this stationary or slowly increasing
produce. From finding such checks, therefore,
im ancient or modern nations, no inference can be
drawn against the absolute populousness of either.
On this account, the prevalence of the small-pox,
and of other disorders unknown to the ancients,
can by no means be considered as an argument

* The extreme insalubrity of Batavia, and perhaps the plague
in some countries, may be considered as physical causes operating
in an excessive degree. The extreme and unusual attachment
of the Romans to a vicious celibacy, and the promiscuous inter-
course in Otaheite, may be considered as moral causes of the same
nature. Such instances, and others of the same kind, which might
probably be found, make it necessary to qualify the general pro-
position as in the text,

254 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

against the populousness of modern nations,
though to these physical causes both Hume* and
Wallacet allow considerable weight.

In the moral causes which they have brought
forward, they have fallen into a similar error.
Wallace introduces the positive encouragements
to marriage among the ancients as one of the
principal causes of the superior populousness of
the ancient world;{ but the necessity of positive
laws to encourage marriage certainly rather indi-
cates a want than an abundance of people; and
in the instance of Sparta, to which he particularly
refers, it appears from the passage in Aristotle,
mentioned in the last chapter, that the laws to
encourage marriage were instituted for the ex-
press purpose of remedying a marked deficiency
of people. In a country with a crowded and
overflowing population, a legislator would never
think of making express laws to encourage mar-
riage and the procreation of children. Other
arguments of Wallace will be found upon ex-
amination to be almost equally ineffectual to his
purpose.

Some of the causes which Hume produces are
in the same manner unsatisfactory, and rather
make against the inference which he has in view
than for it. The number of footmen, housemaids
and other persons remaining unmarried in mo-
dern states, he allows to be an argument against

* Essay xi. p. 425.
} Dissertation, p. 80.
t Id. p. 93.

Ch. xiv. among the Romans. 255

their populousness.* But the contrary inference
of the two appears to be the more probable.
When the difficulties attending the rearing a family
are very great, and consequently many persons
of both sexes remain single, we may naturally
enough infer that population is stationary, but by
no means that itis not absolutely great; because
the difficulty of rearing a family may arise from
the very circumstance of a great absolute popu-
lation, and the consequent fulness of all the chan-
nels to a livelihood; though the same difficulty
may undoubtedly exist in a thinly-peopled coun-
try, which is yet stationary in its population.
The number of unmarried persons in proportion
to the whole number, may form some criterion by
which we can judge whether population be in-
creasing, stationary, or decreasing; but will not
enable us to determine any thing respecting ab-
solute populousness. Yet even in this criterion
we are liable to be deceived. In some of the
southern countries early marriages are general,
and very few women remain in a state of celibacy;
yet the people not only do not increase, but the
actual number is perhaps small. In this case the
removal of the preventive check is made up by
the excessive force of the positive check. The
sum of all the positive and preventive checks
taken together, forms undoubtedly the immediate
cause which represses population; but we never
can expect to obtain and estimate accurately this

* Essay xi.

Ls
256 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

sum in any country; and we can certainly draw
no safe conclusion from the contemplation of two
or three of these checks taken by themselves,
because it so frequently happens that the excess
of one check is balanced by the defect of some
other. Causes, which affect the number of births
or deaths, may or may not affect the average po-
pulation, according to circumstances; but causes,
which affect the production and distribution of
the means of subsistence, must necessarily affect
population; and it is therefore upon these latter
causes alone (independently of actual enumera-
tions) that we can with certainty rely.

All the checks to population, which have been
hitherto considered in the course of this review of
human society, are clearly resolvable into moral
restraint, vice, and misery.

Of that branch of the preventive check which I
have denominated moral restraint, though it has
certainly had some share in repressing the natural
power of population, yet, taken in its strict sense,
it must be allowed to have operated feebly, com-
pared with the others. Of the other branch of
the preventive check, which comes under the
head of vice, though its effect appears to have
been very considerable in the later periods of
Roman history, and in some other countries; yet,
upon the whole, its operation seems to have been
inferior to the positive checks. A large portion
of the procreative power appears to have been
called into action, the redundancy from which
was checked by violent causes. Among these, —

Ch. xiv. among the Romans. 257

war is the most prominent and striking feature ;
and after this may be ranked famines and violent
diseases. In most of the countries considered,
the population seems to have been seldom mea-
sured accurately according to the average and
permanent means of subsistence, but generally to
have vibrated between the two extremes; and
consequently the oscillations between want and
plenty are strongly marked, as we should natu-
rally expect among less civilized nations.

%.

VOL. I.

ows, oul 1692
ad wapiinltt 3209)

iF % thet hs +g “

SAB vig bites

he at

oi honil igi et nor Py

BOOK II.

OF THE CHECKS TO POPULATION IN THE DIF-
FERENT STATES OF MODERN EUROPE,

CHAP. I.

Of the Checks to Population in Norway.

Iy reviewing the states of modern Europe, we
shall be assisted in our inquiries by registers of
births, deaths and marriages, which, when they
are complete and correct, point out to us with
some degree of precision whether the prevailing
checks to population are of the positive or pre-
ventive kind. The habits of most European na-
tions are of course much alike, owing to the simi-
larity of the circumstances in which they are
placed; and it is to be expected therefore that
their registers should sometimes give the same
results. Relying however too much upon this
occasional coincidence, political calculators have
been led into the error of supposing that there is,
generally speaking, an invariable order of mor-
tality in all countries: but it appears, on the con-
s2

260 Of the Checks to Population Bk. iL.

trary, that this order is extremely variable; that
it is very different in different places of the same
country, and within certain limits depends upon
circumstances, which it is in the power of man to
alter.

Norway, during nearly the whole of the last
century, was in a peculiar degree exempt from
the drains of people by war. The climate is re-
markably free from epidemic sicknesses; and, in
common years, the mortality is less than in any
other country in Europe, the registers of which
are known to be correct.* The proportion of the
annual deaths to the whole population, on an
average throughout the whole country, is only as
] to 48. Yet the population of Norway never
seems to have increased with great rapidity. It
has made a start within the last ten or fifteen
years; but till that period its progress must have
been very slow, as we know that the country was
peopled in very early ages, and in 1769 its popu-
lation was only 723,141.¢

Before we enter upon an examination of its in-
ternal economy, we must fee] assured that, as the
positive checks to its population have been so
small, the preventive checks must have been pro-
portionably great; and we accordingly find from
the registers that the proportion of yearly mar-

* The registers for Russia give a smaller mortality; but it is
supposed that they are defective. It appears, however, that in
England and Wales during the ten years ending with 1820, the
mortality was still less than in Norway.

+ Thaarup’s Statistik der Danischen Monarchie, vol. ii. p. 4.

{ Id. Table ii. p. 5.

Ch. i. in Norway. 261

riages to the whole population is as 1 to 130,*
which is a smaller proportion of marriages than
appears in the registers of any other country, ex-
cept Switzerland.

One cause of this small number of marriages is
the mode in which the enrolments for the army
have been conducted till within a very few years.
Every man in Denmark and Norway born of a
farmer or labourer is a soldier.| Formerly the
commanding officer of the district might take
these peasants at any age he pleased; and he in
general preferred those that were from twenty-
five to thirty, to such as were younger. After
being taken into the service, a man could not
marry without producing a certificate, signed by
the minister of the parish, that he had substance

* Thaarup’s Statistik der Danischen Monarchie, vol. ii. p. 4.
The proportion of yearly marriages to the whole population is one
of the most obvious criterions of the operation of the preventive
check, though not quite a correct one. Generally speaking, the
preventive check is greater than might be inferred from this crite-
rion; because in the healthy countries of Europe, where a small
proportion of marriages takes place, the greater number of old
people living at the time of these marriages will be more than
counterbalanced by the smaller proportion of persons under the
age of puberty. In such a country as Norway, the persons from
20 to 50, that is, of the most likely age to marry, bear a greater
proportion to the whole population than in most of the other coun-
tries of Europe; and consequently the actual proportion of mar-
riages in Norway, compared with that of others, will not express
the full extent in which the preventive check operates.

+ The few particulars, which I shall mention relating to Norway,
were collected during a summer excursion in that country in the
year 1799.

262 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

enough to support a wife and family; and even
then it was further necessary for him to obtain
the permission of the officer. The difficulty, and
sometimes the expense, of obtaining this certifi-
cate and permission, generally deterred those who
were not in very good circumstances, from think-
ing of marriage till their service of ten years was
expired; and as they might be enrolled at any
age under thirty-six, and the officers were apt to
take the oldest first, it would often be late in life
before they could feel themselves at liberty to
settle.

Though the minister of the parish had no legal
power to prevent a man from marrying who was
not enrolled for service, yet it appears that
custom had in some degree sanctioned a discre-
tionary power of this kind, and the priest often
refused to join a couple together when the par-
ties had no probable means of supporting a
family.

Every obstacle, however, of this nature, whe-
ther arising from law or custom, has now been
entirely removed. A full liberty is given to
marry at any age, without leave either of the
officer or priest; and in the enrolments for the
army all those of the age of twenty are taken first,
then all those of twenty-two, and so on till the
necessary number is completed.

The officers in general disapprove of this change.
They say that a young Norwegian has not arrived
at his full strength and does not make a good
soldier at twenty. And many are of opinion that

Ch. 1. in Norway. 263

the peasants will now marry too young, and that
more children will be born than the country can
support.

But, independently of any regulations re-
specting the military enrolments, the peculiar
state of Norway throws very strong obstacles
in the way of early marriages. There are no
large manufacturing towns to take off the over-
flowing population of the country; and as each
village naturally furnishes from itself a supply of
hands more than equal to the demand, a change
of place in search of work seldom promises any
success. Unless therefore an opportunity of fo-
reign emigration offer, the Norwegian peasant
generally remains in the village in which he was
born ; and as the vacancies in houses and employ-
ments must occur very slowly, owing to the small
mortality that takes place, he will often see him-
self compelled to wait a considerable time, before
he can attain a situation, which will enable him to
rear a family.

The Norway farms have in general a certain
number of married labourers employed upon them,
in proportion to their size, who are called house-
men. They receive from the farmer a house, and
a quantity of land nearly sufficient to. maintain
a family ; in return for which they are under the
obligation of working for him at a low and fixed
price, whenever they are called upon, Except in
the immediate neighbourhood of the towns, and
on the sea-coast, the vacancy of a place of this kind
is the only prospect which presents itself of pro-

264 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

viding for a family.. From the small number of
people, and the little variety of employment, the
subject is brought distinctly within the view of
each individual; and he must feel the absolute
necessity of repressing his inclinations to mar-
riage, till some such vacancy offer. If, from the
plenty of materials, he should be led to build a
house for himself, it could not be expected, that
the farmer, if he had a sufficient number of la-
bourers before, should give him an adequate por-
tion of land with it; and though he would in
general find employment for three or four months
in the summer, yet there would be little chance
of his earning enough to support a family during
the whole year. It is probable, that it was in
cases of this kind, where the impatience of the
parties prompted them to build, or propose to
build a house themselves, and trust to what they
could earn, that the parish priests exercised the
discretionary power of refusing to marry.

The young men and women therefore are obliged
to remain with the farmers as unmarried servants,
till a houseman’s place becomes vacant: and of
these unmarried servants there is in every farm,
and every gentleman’s family, a much greater
proportion, than the work would seem to require.
There is but little division of labour in Norway.
Almost all the wants of domestic economy are >
supplied in each separate household. Not only
the common operations of. brewing, baking, and
washing, are carried on at home, but many fami-
hes make or import their own cheese and butter,

Ch. i. in Norway. 265

kill their own beef and mutton, import their own
grocery stores; and the farmers and country peo-
ple in general spin their own flax and wool, and
weave their own linen and woollen clothes. In the
largest towns, such as Christiana and Drontheim,
there is nothing that can be called a market. It
is extremely difficult to get a joint of fresh meat;
and a pound of fresh butter is an article not to be
purchased, even in the midst of summer. Fairs
are held at certain seasons of the year, and stores
of all kinds of provisions that will keep are laid
in at these times; and, if this care be neglected,
great inconveniencies are suffered, as scarcely
any thing is to be bought retail. . Persons who
make a temporary residence in the country, or
small merchants not possessed of farms, complain
heavily of this inconvenience ; and the wives of
merchants, who have large estates, say, that the
domestic economy of a Norway family is so ex-
tensive and complicated, that the necessary super-
intendance of it requires their whole attention,
and that they can find no time for any thing else.
It is evident, that a system of this kind must
require a great number of servants. It is said
besides, that they are not remarkable for diligence,
and that to do the same quantity of work more
are necessary than in other countries. The con-
sequence is, that in every establishment the pro-
portion of servants will be found two or three
times as great as in England ; and a farmer in the
country, who in his appearance is not to be dis-
tinguished from any of his labourers, will some-

266 Of the Checks to Population BK. ii.

times have a household of twenty persons, includ-
ing his own family.

The means of maintenance to a single man are,
therefore, much less confined than to a married
man; and under such circumstances the lower
classes of people cannot increase much, till the
increase of mercantile stock, or the division and
improvement of farms, furnishes a greater quan-
tity of employment for married labourers. In
countries more fully peopled this subject is always
involved in great obscurity. Each man naturally
thinks, that he has as good a chance of finding
employment as his neighbour; and that, if he fail
in one place, he shall succeed in some other.
He marries, therefore, and trusts to fortune; and
the effect too frequently is, that redundant popu-
lation occasioned in this manner is repressed by
the positive checks of poverty and disease. In
Norway the subject is not involved in the same
obscurity. The number of additional families,
which the increasing demand for labour will sup-
port, is more distinctly marked. The population
is so small, that even in the towns it is difficult to
fall into any considerable error on this subject;
and in the country the division and improvement
of an estate, and the creation of a greater number
of housemen’s places, must be a matter of com-
plete notoriety. If aman can obtain one of these
places, he marries, and is able to support a family;
if he cannot obtain one, he remains single. A re-
dundant population is thus prevented from taking
place, instead of being destroyed after it has taken
place.

Ch. 1. in Norway. 267

It is not to be doubted, that the general preva-
lence of the preventive check to population, owing
to the state of society which has been described,
together with the obstacles thrown in the way of
early marriages from the enrolments for the army,
have powerfully contributed to place the lower
classes of people in Norway in a better situation,
than could be expected from the nature of the
soil and climate. On the sea-coast, where, on ac-
count of the hopes of an adequate supply of food
from fishing, the preventive check does not prevail
in the same degree, the people are very poor and
wretched ; and, beyond comparison, in a worse
state than the peasants in the interior of the
country.

The greatest part of the soil in Norway is abso-
lutely incapable of bearing corn, and the climate
is subject to the most sudden and fatal changes.
There are three nights about the end of August,
which are particularly distinguished by the name
of iron nights, on account of their sometimes blast-
ing the promise of the fairest crops. On these
occasions the lower classes of people necessarily
suffer; but as there are scarcely any independent
labourers, except the housemen that have been
mentioned, who all keep cattle, the hardship of
being obliged to mix the inner bark of the pine
with their bread is mitigated by the stores of
cheese, of salt butter, of salt meat, salt fish, and
bacon, which they are generally enabled to lay up
for the winter provision. The period in which
the want of corn presses the most severely is ge-

268 Of the Checks to Population Bk, 11.

nerally about two months before harvest; and at
this time the cows, of which the poorest house-
men have generally two or three, and many five
or six, begin to give milk, which must be a great
assistance to the family, particularly to the younger
part of it. In the summer of the year 1799, the
Norwegians appeared to wear a face of plenty and
content, while their neighbours the Swedes were
absolutely starving; and I particularly remarked,
that the sons of housemen and the farmers’ boys
were fatter, larger, and had better calves to their
legs, than boys of the same age, and in similar
situations in England.

It is also without doubt owing to the preya-
lence of the preventive check to population, as
much as to any peculiar healthiness of the air, that
the mortality in Norway is so small. There is
nothing in the climate or the soil, that would lead
to the supposition of its being in any extraordi-
nary manner favourable to the general health of
the inhabitants; but as in every country the prin-
cipal mortality takes place among very young
children, the smaller number of these in Norway,
in proportion to the whole population, will natu-
rally occasion a smaller mortality than in other
countries, supposing the climate to be equally
healthy.

It may be said, perhaps, and with truth, that
one of the principal reasons of the small mortality
in Norway is, that the towns are inconsiderable
and few, and that few peopie are employed in
unwholesome manufactories. In many of the

Ch. i. in Norway. 269

agricultural villages of other countries, where the
preventive check to population does not prevail
in the same degree, the mortality is as small as in
Norway. But it should be recollected, that the
calculation in this case is for those particular vil-
lages alone; whereas in Norway the calculation of
one in forty-eight is for the whole country. The
redundant population of these villages is disposed
of by constant emigrations to the towns, and the
deaths of a great part of those that are born in the
parish do not appear in the registers. But in
Norway all the deaths are within the calculation,
and it is clear, that, if more were born than the
country could support, a great mortality must take
place in some form or other. If the people were
not destroyed by disease, they would be destroyed
by famine. It is indeed well known, that bad and
insufficient food will produce disease and death in
the purest air and the finest climate. Supposing
therefore no great foreign emigration, and no ex-
traordinary increase in the resources of the coun-
try, nothing but the more extensive prevalence of
the preventive check to population in Norway can
secure to her a smaller mortality than in other
countries, however pure her air may be, or how-~
ever healthy the employments of her people.
Norway seems to have been anciently divided
into large estates or farms, called Gores ; and as,
according to the law of succession, all the brothers
divide the property equally, it is a matter of sur-
prise, and a proof how slowly the population has
hitherto increased, that these estates have not

270 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

been more subdivided. Many of them are indeed
now divided into half gores and quarter gores, and
some still lower; but it has in general been the
custom, on the death of the father, for a commis-
sion to value the estate at a low rate, and if the
eldest son can pay his brothers’ and sisters’ * shares,
according to this valuation, by mortgaging his
estate or otherwise, the whole is awarded to him:
and the force of habit and natural indolence too
frequently prompt him to conduct the farm after
the manner of his forefathers, with few or no
efforts at improvement.

Another great obstacle to the improvement of
farms in Norway is a law, which is called Odel’s
right, by which any lineal descendant can repur-
chase an estate, which had been sold out of the
family, by paying the original purchase-money.
Formerly collateral as well as lineal descendants
had this power, and the time was absolutely un-
limited, so that the purchaser could never consider
himself as secure from claims. Afterwards the
time was limited to twenty years, and in 177], it
was still further limited to ten years, and all the
collateral branches were excluded. It must how-
ever be an uninterrupted possession of ten years ;
for if, before the expiration of this term, a person
who has a right to claim under the law give notice
to the possessor, that he does not forego his claim,
though he is not then in a condition to make the
purchase, the possessor is obliged to wait six

* A daughter's portion is the half of a son’s portion.

Ch. i. in Norway. 271

years more, before he is perfectly secure. And
as in addition to this the eldest in the lineal de-
scent may reclaim an estate, that had been repur-
chased by a younger brother, the law, even in its
present amended state, must be considered asa
very great bar to improvement; and in its former
state, when the time was unlimited and the sale
of estates in this way was more frequent, it seems
as if it must have been a most complete obstacle
to the melioration of farms, and obviously ac-
counts for the very slow increase of population in
Norway for many centuries.

A further difficulty in the way of clearing and
cultivating the land arises from the fears of the
great timber merchants respecting the woods.
When a farm has been divided among children
and grandchildren, as each proprietor has a cer-
tain right in the woods, each in general endea-
vours to cut as much as he can; and the timber is
thus felled before it is fit, and the woods spoiled.
To prevent this, the merchants buy large tracts
of woods of the farmers, who enter into a con-
tract, that the farm shall not be any further sub-
divided or more housemen placed upon it; at
least that, if the number of families be increased,
they should have no right in the woods. It is
said, that the merchants who make these pur-
chases are not very strict, provided the smaller
farmers and housemen do not take timber for their
houses. The farmers who sell these tracts of
wood are obliged by law, to reserve to themselves
the right of pasturing their cattle, and of cutting

272 ‘Of the Checks to Population Bk. il.

timber. sufficient for their houses, repairs, and
firing.

A piece of ground round a houseman’s dwelling
cannot be enclosed for cultivation, without an
application, first, to the proprietors of the woods,
declaring, that the spot is not fit for timber; and
afterwards to a magistrate of the district, whose
leave on this occasion is also necessary, probably
for the purpose of ascertaining, whether the leave
of the proprietor had been duly obtained.

In addition to these obstacles to improved cul-
tivation, which may be considered as artificial,
the nature of the country presents an insuperable
obstacle to a cultivation and population in any
respect proportioned to the surface of the soil.
The Norwegians, though not in a nomadic state,
are still ina considerable degree in the pastoral
state, and depend very much upon their cattle.
The high grounds that border on the mountains,
are absolutely unfit to bear corn; and the only
use, to which they can be put, is to pasture cattle
upon them for three or four months during the
summer. The farmers accordingly send all their
eattle to these grounds at this time of the year,
under the care of a part of their families; and it
is here, that they make all their butter and cheese
for sale, or for their own consumption. The
great difficulty is to support their cattle during
the long winter, and for this purpose it is neces-
sary, that a considerable proportion of the most
fertile land in the vallies should be mowed for
hay. If too muchiof it were taken into tillage,

Ch. i. in Norway. 273

the number of cattle must be proportionably di-
minished, and the greatest part of the higher
grounds would become absolutely useless; and
it might be a question in that case, whether the
country upon the whole would support a greater
population.

Notwithstanding, however, all these obstacles,
there is a very considerable capacity of improve-
ment in Norway, and of late years it has been
called into action. I heard it remarked by a pro-
fessor at Copenhagen, that the reason. why the
agriculture of Norway had advanced so slowly
was, that there were no gentlemen farmers to set
examples of improved cultivation, and break the
routine of ignorance and prejudice in the conduct
of farms, that had been handed down from father
to son for successive ages. From what I saw of
Norway I should say, that this want is now in
some degree supplied. Many intelligent mer-
chants, and well informed general officers, are at
present engaged in farming. In the country round
Christiana, very great improvements have taken
place in the system of agriculture; and even in
the neighbourhood of Drontheim the culture of
artificial grasses has been introduced, which, in
a country where so much winter feed is necessary
for cattle, is a point of the highest importance.
Almost every where the cultivation of potatoes
has succeeded, and they are growing more and
more into general use, though in the distant parts
of the country they are not yet relished by the
common people.

SO ih ae Ie T

274 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

- It has been more the custom of late years than
formerly to divide farms; and as the vent for
commodities in Norway is not perhaps sufficient
to encourage the complete cultivation of large
farms, this division of them has probably contri-
buted to the improvement of the land. It seems
indeed to be universally agreed, among those who
are in a situation to be competent judges, that
the agriculture of Norway in general has ad-
vanced considerably of late years; and the regis-
ters show, that the population has followed with
more than equal pace. On an average of ten
years, from 1775 to 1784, the proportion of births
to deaths was 141 to 100.* But this seems to
have been rather too rapid an increase; as the
following year, 1785, was a year of scarcity and
sickness, in which the deaths considerably ex-
ceeded the births; and for four years afterwards,
particularly in 1789, the excess of births was not
great. But in five years from 1789 to 1794, the
proportion of births and deaths was nearly 150
to 100.f

* Thaarupt’s Statistik der Danischen Monarchie, vol. ii. p. 4.

t Id. table i. p. 4. In the Tableau Statistique des Etats
Danois, since published, it appears that the whole number of
births for the five years subsequent to 1794, was 138,799, of deaths
94,530, of marriages 34,313. ‘These numbers give the proportion
of births to deaths as 146 to 100, of births to marriages as 4 to 1,
and of deaths to marriages as 275 to 100. The average propor-
tion of yearly births is stated to be 3), and of yearly deaths 5 of
the whole population. vol. ii. ch. viii.

Ch. i. in Norway. 275

Many of the most thinking and best informed
persons express their apprehensions on this sub-
ject, and on the probable result of the new regu-
lations respecting the enrolments of the army,
and the apparent intention of the court of Den-
mark to encourage at all events the population.
No very unfavourable season has occurred in
Norway since 1785; but it is feared that, in the
event of such a season, the most severe distress
might be felt from the rapid increase that has of
late taken place.

Norway is, I believe, almost the only country
in Europe where a traveller will hear any appre-
hensions expressed of a redundant population,
and where the danger to the happiness of the
lower classes of people from this cause is in some
degree seen and understood. This obviously
arises from the smallness of the population alto-
gether, and the consequent narrowness of the
subject. If our attention were confined to one
parish, and there were no power of emigrating
from it, the most careless observer could not fail
to remark that, if all married at twenty, it would
be perfectly impossible for the farmers, however
carefully they might improve their land, to find
employment and food for those that would grow
up; but when a great number of these parishes
are added together in a populous kingdom, the
largeness of the subject, and the power of moving
from place to place, obscure and confuse our
view. We lose sight of a truth, which before

T2

276 Of the Checks to Population, &c. Bk. i.
appeared completely obvious; and in a most un-
accountable manner, attribute to the aggregate
quantity of land a power of supporting people

beyond comparison greater than the sum of all
its parts.

(277°)

CHAP. Il.

Of the Checks to Population in Sweden.

SWEDEN is, in many respects, in a state similar
to that of Norway. A very large proportion of
its population is in the same manner employed
in agriculture; and in most parts of the country
the married labourers who work for the farmers,
like the housemen of Norway, have a certain por-
tion of land for their principal maintenance; while
the young men and women that are unmarried
live as servants in the farmers’ families. This
state of things however is not so complete and
general as in Norway; and from this cause, added
to the greater extent and population of the coun-
try, the superior size of the towns and the greater
variety of employment, it has not occasioned in
the same degree the prevalence of the preventive
check to population; and consequently the positive
check has operated with more force, or the mor-
tality has been greater.

According to a paper published by M. Wargen-
tin in the Adémoires abrégés de ? Académie Royale
des Sciences de Stockholm,* the yearly average mor-
tality in all Sweden, for nine years ending in 1663,
was to the population as 1 to343.f M. Wargentin

* Vol. i. 4to. printed at Paris, 1772.
t Id. p. 27.

278 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

furnished Dr. Price with a continuation of these
tables; and an average of 21 years gives a result
of 1 to 342, nearlythesame.* This is undoubtedly
a very great mortality, considering the large pro-
portion of the population in Sweden which is em-
ployed in agriculture. It appears, from some
calculations in Cantzlaer’s account of Sweden,
that the inhabitants of the towns are to the inha-
bitants of the country only as 1 to 13; whereas in
well-peopled countries the proportion is often as
1 to 3, orabove.{ The superior mortality of towns
therefore cannot much affect the general propor-
tion of deaths in Sweden.

The average mortality of villages according to
Sussmilch is | in 40.§ In Prussia and Pomerania,
which include a number of great and unhealthy
towns, and where the inhabitants of the towns
are to the inhabitants of the country as 1 to 4, the
mortality is less than | in 37.) The mortality in
Norway, as has been mentioned before, is 1 in 48,
which is in a very extraordinary degree less than
in Sweden, though the inhabitants of the towns
in Norway bear a greater proportion to the inha-

* Price’s Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. p. 126, 4th edit.

+ Mémoires pour servir & la connoissance des affaires politiques
et économiques du Royaume de Suede, 4to. 1776, ch. vi. p. 187.
This work is considered as very correct in its information, and is
in great credit at Stockholm.

+ Sussmilch’s Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. ii. sect. xxxiv. edit.
1798.

§ Id. sect. xxxv. p. 91.

|| Id. vol. iii. p. 60.

Ch. ii. in Sweden. 279

bitants of the country than in Sweden:* The
towns in Sweden are indeed larger and more un-
healthy than in Norway; but there is no reason
to think that the country is naturally more unfa-
vourable to the duration of human life. The
mountains of Norway are in general not habitable.
The only peopled parts of the country are the
valleys. Many of these valleys are deep and
narrow clefts in the mountains; and the cultivated
spots in the bottom, surrounded as they are by
almost perpendicular cliffs of a prodigious height, f
which intercept the rays of the sun for many
hours, do not seem as if they could be so healthy
as the more exposed and drier soil of Sweden.

It is difficult therefore entirely to account for
the mortality of Sweden, without supposing that
the habits of the people, and the continual cry of
the government for an increase of subjects, tend
to press the population too hard against the limits
of subsistence, and consequently to produce dis-
eases, which are the necessary effect of poverty

* Thaarup’s Statistik der Danischen Monarchie, vol. ii. tab. ii.
p- 5. 1765.

+ Some of these valleys are strikingly picturesque. The princi-
pal read from Christiana to Drontheim leads for nearly 150
English miles through a continued valley of this kind, by the side
of a very fine river, which in one part stretches out into the exten-
sive lake Miosen. I am inclined to believe that there is not any
river in all Europe, the course of which affords such a constant
succession of beautiful and romantic scenery. It goes under dif-
ferent names in different parts. The verdure in the Norway val-
leys is peculiarly soft, the foliage of the trees luxuriant, and in
summer no traces appear of a northern climate,

280 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

and bad nourishment; and this, from observation,
appears to be really the case.

Sweden does not produce food sufficient for its
population. Its annual want in the article of
grain, according to a calculation made from the
years 1768 and 1772, is 440,000 tuns.* This
quantity or near it, has in general been imported
from foreign countries, besides pork, butter and
cheese to a considerable amount.f

The distillation of spirits in Sweden is supposed
to consume above 400,000 tuns of grain; and
when this distillation has been prohibited by
government, a variation in defect appears in the
tables of importations;{ but no great variations
in excess are observable to supply the deficiencies
in years of scanty harvests, which it is well
known occur frequently. In years the most
abundant, when the distillation has been free, it
is asserted that 388,000 tuns have in general
been imported.§ It follows therefore that the
Swedes consume all the produce of their best
years, and nearly 400,000 more; and that in
their worst years their consumption must be
diminished by nearly the whole deficiency in
their crops. The mass of the people appears to
be too poor to purchase nearly the same quantity

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suede, table xvii. p. 174.

tT Ad. 'c. Vi. Doves

¢ Id. table xlii. p. 418, c. vi. p. 201. I did not find out ex-
actly the measure of the Swedish tun. It is rather less than our
sack, or half-quarter.

§ Id. c. vi. p. 201.

Ch. i. in Sweden. 281

of corn at a very advanced price, There is no
adequate encouragement therefore to corn mer-
chants to import in great abundance; and the
effect of a deficiency of one-fourth or one-third
in the crops is, to oblige the labourer to content
himself with nearly three-fourths or two-thirds
of the corn which he used before, and to supply
the rest by the use of any substitutes, which
Necessity, the mother of Invention, may suggest.
I have said nearly; because it is difficult to sup-
pose that the importations should not be some-
thing greater in years of scarcity than in common
years, though no marked difference of this kind
appears in the tables published by Cantziaer.
The greatest importation, according to these
tables, was in the year 1768, when it amounted
to 590,265 tuns of grain ;* but even this greatest
_importation is only 150,000 tuns above the aver-
age wants of the country; and what is this, to
supply a deficiency of one-fourth or one-third
of acrop? The whole importation is indeed in
this respect trifling.

The population of Sweden, at the time when
Cantzlaer wrote, was about two millions and a
half.t He allows four tuns of grain to a man.{
Upon this supposition the annual wants of Sweden
would be ten millions of tuns, and four or five
hundred thousand would go but a little way in
supplying a deficiency of two millions and a half

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suede, table xlii. p. 418.
+ Id. ch. vi. p. 184.
+ Id. p. 196.

282 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

or three millions; and if we take only the diffe-
rence from the average importation it will appear
that the assistance which the Swedes receive from
importation in a year of scarcity is perfectly
futile.

The consequence of this state of things is, that
the population of Sweden is in a peculiar manner
affected by every variation of the seasons; and
we cannot be surprised at a very curious and
instructive remark of M. Wargentin, that the
registers of Swedenshew that the births, marriages
and deaths increase and decrease according to
the state of the harvests. From the nine years
of which he had given tables, he instances the
following:

Marriages. Births. Deaths.

Barren §1757 18,799 81,878 68,054

years. 01758 19,584 83,299 74,370

Abundant¢ 1759 23,210 85,579 62,662
years. 01760 23,383 90,635 60,083.*

Here it appears that in the year 1760 the
births were to the deaths as 15 to 10; but in the
year 1758 only as 11 to 10. By referring to the
enumerations of the population in 1757 and 1760,f
which M. Wargentin has given, it appears that the
number of marriages in the year 1760 in proportion
to the whole population was as | to 101; in the
year 1757, only as 1 to about 124. The deaths in

* Memoires Abrégés de Académie de Stockholm, p. 29.
+ Id. p. 21, 22.

Ch. ii. in Sweden. 283

1760 were to the whole population as 1 to 39, in
1757 as 1 to 32, and in 1758 as | to 31.

In some observations on the Swedish registers,
M. Wargentin says that in the unhealthy years
about 1 in 29 have died annually, and in the
healthy years one in 39; and that taking a middle
term the average mortality might be considered
at 1 in 36.* But this inference does not appear
to be just, as a mean between 29 and 39 would
vive 34; and indeed the tables, which he has
himself brought forward, contradict an average
mortality of 1 in 36, and prove that it is about 1
in 343,

The proportion of yearly marriages to the
whole population appears to be on an average
nearly as 1 to 112, and to vary between the ex-
tremes of 1 to 101, and 1 to 124, according to the
temporary prospect of a support for a family.
Probably indeed it varies between much greater
extremes, as the period from which these calcula-
tions are made is merely for niné years.

In another paper which M. Wargentin pub-
lished in the same collection, he again remarks
that in Sweden the years, which are the most
fruitful in produce, are the most fruitful in chil-
dren.t

If accurate observations were made in other
countries, it is highly probable that differences of
the same kind would appear, though not to the

* Mémoires Abrégés de I’ Académie de Stockholm, p. 29.
+ Id. p. 31,

284 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

same extent.* With regard to Sweden, they
clearly prove that its population has a very strong
tendency to increase; and that it is not only
always ready to follow with the greatest alert-
ness any average increase in the means of sub-
sistence, but that it makes a start forwards at
every temporary and occasional increase of food;
by which means it is continually going beyond
the average increase, and is repressed by the
periodical returns of severe want, and the diseases
arising from it.

Yet notwithstanding this constant and striking
tendency to overflowing numbers, strange to say!
the government and the political economists of
Sweden are continually calling out for popula-
tion! population! Cantzlaer observes, that the
government, not having the power of inducing
strangers to settle in the country, or of augment-
ing at pleasure the number of births, has occupied
itself since 1748 in every measure which appeared
proper to increase the population of the country.t
But suppose that the government really pos-
sessed the power of inducing strangers to settle,
or of increasing the number of births at pleasure,
what would be the consequence? If the strangers
were not such as to introduce a better system of
agriculture they would either be starved them-

* This has been confirmed with regard to England, by the
abstracts of parish registers which have lately been published.
The years 1795 and 1800 are marked by a diminution of marriages
and births, and an increase of deaths.

‘+ Mémoires du Royaume de Suéde, c. vi. p. 188.

Ch. ii. in Sweden. 285

selves, or cause more of the Swedes to be starved ;
and if the yearly number of births were consi-
derably increased, it appears to me_ perfectly
clear, from the tables of M. Wargentin, that the
principal effect would be merely an increase of
mortality. The actual population might perhaps
even be diminished by it; as, when epidemics
have once been generated by bad nourishment
and crowded houses, they do not always stop
when they have taken off the redundant popula-
tion, but take off with it a part, and sometimes a
very considerable part, of that which the country
might-be able properly to support.

In all very northern climates, in which the
principal business of agriculture must necessarily
be compressed into the small space of a few
summer months, it will almost inevitably happen
that during this period a want of hands is felt;
but this temporary want should be carefully dis-
tinguished from a real and effectual demand for
labour, which includes the power of giving em-
ployment and support through the whole year,
and not merely for two or three months. The
population of Sweden in the natural course of its
increase will always be ready fully to answer this
effectual demand; and a supply beyond it, whe-
ther from strangers or an additional number of
births, can only He productive of misery.

It is asserted by Swedish authors that a given
number of men and of days produces in Sweden
only a third part of what is produced by the same

286 Of the Checks to Population Bk. u.

number of each in some other countries ;* and
heavy accusations are in consequence brought
against the national industry. Of the general
grounds for such accusations, a stranger cannot
be a competent judge ; but in the present instance
it appears to me that more ought to be attributed
to the climate and soil than to an actual want of
industry in the natives. For a large portion of
the year their exertions are necessarily cramped
by the severity of the climate; and during the
time when they are able to engage in agricultural
operations, the natural indifference of the soil and
the extent of surface required for a given produce,
inevitably employ a greater proportional quantity
of labour. It is well known in England that a
farm of large extent, consisting of a poor soil, is
worked at a much greater expense for the same
produce than a small one of rich land. The na-
tural poverty of the soil in Sweden, generally
speaking, cannot be denied.t

In a journey up the western side of the country,
and afterwards in crossing it from Norway to
Stockholm, and thence up the eastern coast to the
passage over to Finland, I confess that I saw fewer
marks of a want of national industry than I should
have expected. As far as I could judge, I very
seldom saw any land uncultivated, which would
have been cultivated in England; and I certainly
saw many spots of land in tillage, which never

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suede, ch. vi. p. 191.

+ Cantzlaer mentions the returns from land effectivement ense-
mencé as only three grains for one. ch. vi. p. 196.

Ch. ii. in Sweden. 287

would have been touched with a plough here.
These were lands in which every five or ten yards
there were large stones or rocks, round which the
plough must necessarily be turned, or be lifted
over them; and the one or the other is generally
done according to their size. The plough is very
light, and drawn by one horse; and in ploughing
among the stumps of the trees when they are low,
the general practice is to lift it over them. The
man who holds the plough does this very nimbly,
with little or no stop to the horse.

Of the value of those lands for tillage, which
are at present covered with immense forests, I
could be no judge; but both the Swedes and the
Norwegians are accused of clearing these woods
away too precipitately, and without previously
considering what is likely to be the real value of the
land when cleared. The consequence is, that for
the sake of one good crop of rye, which may al-
ways be obtained from the manure afforded by
the ashes of the burnt trees, much growing timber
is sometimes spoiled, and the land perhaps after-
wards becomes almost entirely useless. After the
crop of rye has been obtained, the common prac-
tice is to turn cattle in upon the grass, which may
accidentally grow up. If the land be naturally
good, the feeding of the cattle prevents fresh firs
from rising; but if it be bad, the cattle of course
cannot remain long in it, and the seeds, with which
every wind is surcharged, sow the ground again
thickly with firs.

On observing many spots of this kind both in

288 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

Norway and Sweden, I could not help being struck
with the idea, that, though for other reasons it
was very little probable, such appearances cer-
tainly made it seem possible that these countries
might have been better peopled formerly than at
present; and that lands, which are now covered
with forests, might have produced corn a thousand
years ago. Wars, plagues, or that greater depo-
pulator than either, a tyrannical government, might
have suddenly destroyed or expelled the greatest
part of the inhabitants ; and a neglect of the land
for twenty or thirty years in Norway or Sweden
would produce a very strange difference in the
face of the country. But this is merely an idea
which I could not help mentioning, but which the
reader already knows has not had weight enough
with me to make me suppose the fact in any de-
gree probable.

To return to the agriculture of Sweden. Inde-
pendently of any deficiency in the national in-
dustry, there are certainly some circumstances in
the political regulations of the country which tend
to impede the natural progress of its cultivation.
There are still some burdensome Corvées remain-
ing, which the possessors of certain lands are
obliged to perform for the domains of the crown.*
The posting of the country is undoubtedly very
cheap ‘and convenient to the traveller; but it is
conducted in a manner to occasion a great waste
of labour to the farmer, both in men and horses.

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suede, ch. vi. p. 202.

Ch. ii. in Sweden. 289

It is calculated by the Swedish economists that
the labour, which would be saved by the abolition
of this system alone, would produce annually
300,000 tuns of grain.* The very great distance
of the markets in Sweden, and the very incom-
plete division of labour, which is almost a neces-
sary consequence of it, occasion also a great waste
of time and exertion. And if there be no marked
want of diligence and activity among the Swedish
peasants, there is certainly a want of knowledge
as to the best modes of regulating the rotation of
their crops, and of manuring and improving their
lands.t

If the government were employed in removing
these impediments, and in endeavours to encou-
rage and direct the industry of the farmers, and
to circulate the best information on agricultural
subjects, it would do much more for the popula-
tion of the country than by the establishment of
five hundred foundling hospitals.

According to Cantzlaer, the principal measures
in which the government had been engaged for
the encouragement of the population, were the
establishment of colleges of medicine, and of lying-
in and foundling hospitals.[ The establishment
of colleges of medicine for the cure of the poor
gratis, may, in many cases, be extremely benefi-
cial, and was so probably in the particular cir-
cumstances of Sweden; but the example of the

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suede, ch. vi. p. 204.
+ Id. ch. vi.
t{ Id. p. 188.

VOL. I. U

290 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

hospitals of France, which have the same object,
may create a doubt whether even such establish-
ments are universally to be recommended. Lying-
in hospitals, as far ag they have an effect, are pro-
bably rather prejudicial than otherwise; as, ac-
cording to the principle on which they are gene-
rally conducted, their tendency is certainly to
encourage vice. Foundling hospitals, whether
they attain their professed and immediate object
or not, are in every view hurtful to the state; but
the mode in which they operate I shall have oc-
casion to discuss more particularly in another
chapter.

The Swedish government, however, has not
been exclusively employed in measures of this
nature. By an edict in 1776, the commerce of
grain was rendered completely free throughout
the whole interior of the country; and with re-
gard to the province of Scania, which grows more
than its consumption, exportation free of every
duty was allowed.* Till this period the agricul-
ture of the southern provinces had been checked
by the want of vent for their grain, on account of
the difficulty of transport, and the absolute pro-
hibition of selling it to foreigners at any price.
The northern provinces are still under some dif-
ficulties in this respect; though, as: they never
grow a quantity sufficient for their consumption,
these difficulties are not so much felt.— It may

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suede, ch. vi. p. 204.
t Id. ibid.

Ch. ii. in Sweden. 291

be observed however, in general, that there is no
check more fatal to improving cultivation than any
difficulty in the vent of its produce, which pre-
vents the farmer from being able to obtain in good
years a price for his corn not much below the
general average.

But what perhaps has contributed more than
any other cause to the increasing population of
Sweden is the abolition of a law in 1748, which
limited the number of persons to each henman or
farm.* The object of this law appears to have
been, to force the children of the proprietors to
undertake the clearing and cultivation of fresh
lands, by which it was thought that the whole
country would be sooner improved. But it ap-
‘pears from experience that these children, bemg
without sufficient funds for such undertakings,
were obliged to seek their fortune in some other
way; and great numbers, in consequence, are
said to have emigrated. A father may now, how-
ever, not only divide his landed property into as
many shares as he thinks proper, but these divi-
sions are particularly recommended by the govern-
ment; and considering the immense size of the
‘Swedish henmans, and the impossibility of their
being cultivated completely by one family, such
divisions must in every point of view be highly
useful.

The population of Sweden m 1751 was

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suéde, ch. vi. p. 177.

u 2

292 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

2,229,661.* In 1799, according to an account
which I received in Stockholm from Professor
Nicander, the successor to M. Wargentin, it was
3,043,731. This is a very considerable addition
to the permanent population of the country, which
has followed a proportional increase in the pro-
duce of the soil, as the imports of corn are not
greater than they were formerly, and there is no
reason to think that the condition of the people is,
‘on an average, worse.

This increase, however, has not gone forwards
without periodical checks, which, if they have not
for a time entirely stopped its progress, have
always retarded the rate of it. How often these
checks have recurred during the last fifty years, I
am not furnished with sufficient data to be able
to say; but I can mention some of them. From
the paper of M. Wargentin,{ already quoted in
this chapter, it appears that the years 1757 and
1758 were barren, and comparatively mortal years.
If we were to judge from the increased importa-
tion of 1768,{ this would also appear to be an
unproductive year. According to the additional
tables with which M. Wargentin furnished Dr.
Price, the years 1771, 1772 and 1773, were par-
ticularly mortal.4 The year 1789 must have
been very highly so, as in the accounts which I

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suéde, ch. vi. p. 184.
t+ Mémoires de I'Académie de Stockholm, p. 29.

¢ Mémoires du Royaume de Suéde, table xlii.

§ Price’s Observ. on Revers. Pay. vol. ii. p. 125.

Ch. it. i Sweden. 293

received from Professor Nicander, this year alone
materially affected the average proportion of
births to deaths for the twenty years ending in
1795. This proportion, including the year 1789,
was 100 to 77; but abstracting it, was 100 to 75;
which is a great difference for one year to make
in an average of twenty. To conclude the cata-
logue, the year 1799, when I was in Sweden,
must have been a very fatal one. In the provinces
bordering on Norway, the peasants called it the
worst that they had ever remembered. The
cattle had all suffered extremely during the winter,
from the drought of the preceding year; and in
July, about a month before the harvest, a con-
siderable portion of the people was living upon
bread made of the inner bark of the fir, and of
dried sorrel, absolutely without any mixture of
meal to make it more palatable and nourishing.
The sallow looks and melancholy countenances of
the peasants betrayed the unwholesomeness of
their nourishment. Many had died; but the full
effects of such a diet had not then been felt. They
would probably appear afterwards in the form of
some epidemic sickness.

The patience, with which the lower classes of
people in Sweden bear these severe pressures is
perfectly astonishing, and can only arise from
their being left entirely to their own resources,
and from the belief that they are submitting to
the great law of necessity, and not to the caprices
of their rulers. Most of the married labourers, as
has before been observed, cultivate a small por-

294 Of the Checks to Population BK. ii.

tion of land; and when, from an unfavourable sea-
son, their crops fail, or their cattle die, they see
the cause of their want, and bear it as the visita-
tion of Providence. Every man will submit with
becoming patience to evils which he believes to
arise from the general laws of nature; but when
the vanity and mistaken benevolence of the go-
vernment and the higher classes of society have,
by a perpetual interference with the concerns of
the lower classes, endeavoured to persuade them,
that all the good which they enjoy is conferred
upon them by their rulers and rich benefactors, it
is very natural that they should attribute all the
evil which they suffer to the same sources; and
patience under such circumstances cannot reason-
ably be expected. Though to avoid still greater
evils, we may beallowed to repress this impatience
by force, if it shew itself in overt acts; yet the
impatience itself appears to be clearly justified in
this case: and those are in a great degree an-
swerable for its consequences, whose conduct has
tended evidently to encourage it.

Though the Swedes had supported the severe
dearth of 1799 with extraordinary resignation ;
yet afterwards, on an edict of the government to
prohibit the distillation of spirits, it is said that
there were considerable commotions in the coun-
try. The measure itself was certainly calculated
to benefit the people; and the manner in which it
was received, affords a curious proof of the dif-
ferent temper with which people bear an evil

Ch. i. in Sweden. 295

arising from the laws of nature, or a privation
caused by the edicts of a government.

The sickly periods in Sweden, which have
retarded the rate of its increase in population,
appear in general to have arisen from the un-
wholesome nourishment occasioned by severe
want. And this want has been caused by un-
favourable seasons, falling upon a country which
was without any reserved store, either in its
general exports or in the liberal division of food
to the labourer in common years; and which was
therefore peopled fully up to its produce, before
the occurrence of the scanty harvest. Such a
state of things is a clear proof that, if, as some of
the Swedish economists assert, their country
ought to have a population of nine or ten millions,*
they have nothing further te do than to make it
produce food sufficient for such a number; and
they may rest perfectly assured that they will not
want mouths to eat it, without the assistance of
lying-in and foundling hospitals.

Notwithstanding the mortal year of 1789, it
appeared from the accounts which I received from
professor Nicander, that the general healthiness
of the country had increased. The average mor-
tality for the twenty years ending 1795 was 1 in
37, instead of | in less than 35, which had been
the average of the preceding twenty years. As
the rate of increase had not been accelerated in
the twenty years ending in 1795, the diminished

* Mémoires du Royaume de Suéde, ch. vi. p. 196.

296 Of the Checks to Population Bk. il.

mortality must have been occasioned by the in-
creased operation of the preventive check.—
Another calculation which I received from the
professor seemed to confirm this supposition.
According to M. Wargentin, as quoted by Suss-
milch,* 5 standing marriages produced yearly 1
child; but in the latter period, the proportion of
standing marriages to annual births was as 5,4,
and subtracting illegitimate children, as 5,3, to 1;
a proof that in the latter period the marriages had
not been quite so early and so prolific.

——

1825.

From subsequent accounts it appears that the
healthiness of Sweden has continued to increase,
from which we may fairly infer that the condition
of the mass of the people has been improving.

In all Sweden and Finland during the five years
ending with 1805, the mean number of the living at
all ages was, males 1,564,611; females 1,683,457;
both, 2,348,068. Annual average deaths of males
40,147; of females 39,266; that is, the annual
mortality of males was 1 of 38.97; of females 1
of 42.87; mean, 1 of 40.92.+

The annual average births of males were 55,119;

* Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. vi. s. 120, p. 231.

t Transactions of the Royal Academy of Sciences at Stockholm
for the year 1809, and Supplement to the Encyclopedia Britannica,
Article, Mortality, by Mr. Milne, Actuary to the Sun Life Assur-
ance Society. The period of five years here noticed was free from

any remarkable epidemics, and vaccination had commenced in
1804,

—S a ee

Ch. il. in Sweden. 297

of females’ 52,762; both, 107,882; that is, the
proportion of male births to the male population
was 1 of 28.38; of female births to the female
population 1 of 31.92; mean, 1 of 30.15.

From a valuable table formed by Mr. Milne on
these and other data, it appears that, according to
the law of mortality which prevailed in Sweden
during the five years ending with 1805, the ex-
pectation of life at birth would be for males 37.820,
for females 41.019; both, 39.385: and that half
of the males would live to very nearly 43 years of
age, half of the females nearly to 48 years of age,
and half of all the births taken together to 45
years.

A proportion of births as 1 to 30.15, and of
deaths as 1 to 40.92, would give a yearly excess
of births to the population, as 1 to 114.5, which,
if continued, would (according to Table II. at the
end of Ch. xi. Bk. ii.) give a rate of increase such
as to double the population in less than 80 years.

In the Revue Encyclopédique for March, 1825,
a short account is given of the result of a com-
mission to inquire into the progress of population
in Sweden since 1748, from which it appears, that
Sweden properly so called; exclusive of Finland,
contained then 1,736,483 inhabitants; in 1773,
1,958,797; in 1798, 2,352,298; and in 1823,
2,687,457. In 1823, there had been 56,054
deaths, and 98,259 births. The excess of the
births in that year alone was therefore 42,205, and
it is stated that, supposing the same excess in the
next year, 1824, the average annual excess of the

298 Of the Checks to Population, Sc. Bk. ii.

last fifteen years would be 23,333. _This would
be in the proportion of 1 to 108 of the average
population, an excess which, if continued, would
double the population in about 75 years. Ac-
cording to the foregoing numbers, the proportion
of the births to the population was in 1823 as 1
to 27.3, of the deathsas1to 47.9. The healthiness
of the country, therefore, and the rate of its in-
crease in population, has continued to advance
since 1805. This increase is attributed to the
progress of agriculture and industry, and the
practice of vaccination.

The gradual diminution of mortality since the
middle of the last century is very striking.

|

( 299 )

CHAP. III.

Of the Checks to Population in Russia.

Tue lists of births, deaths and marriages in
Russia, present such extraordinary results that
it is impossible not to receive them with a con-
siderable degree of suspicion; at the same time
the regular manner in which they have been col-
lected, and their agreement with each other in
different years, entitle them to attention.

In a paper presented in 1768, by B. F. Her-
man, to the academy of Petersburg, and pub-
lished in the Nova Acta Academia, tom. iv., a
comparison is made of the births, deaths and
marriages in the different provinces and towns of
the empire, and the following proportions are

given :

In Petersburg the births are to the

burials as 2. 55. . 10, Yo 02 Sr Gao
In the government of Moscow .. . 21 — 10
District of Moscow excepting the

MRO ee ele ee se 21 — 10
Es See oa as ca ok cane Se cae ehee era tany 26 — 10
Novogorod .. 2. - 2 ee ens 20 — 10
Rekoven. C000) eis. eae es Se 22 — 10
ERGRARR y of.) ok oo, OTIS Tee ag == 10
Veronesehios. ints) Wb Ae 29 — 10

Archbishopric of Vologda .... . 23 — 10

300 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

| Ee aa ER oe ay Pe 20 — 10
Pepcenenceres eS Se ee seal 13 — 10
Meme yes Ts eo ey bee 21 — 10
oevrh GF Tobdiskes: - 2 iee< 6.2 ens 13 — 10
oc: tI SE Se! RSP oc MMM te age! 11 — 10
VologdanvA sar. sovadiet |. 03 whats )eok 12 — 10

Some of these proportions it will be observed
are extraordinarily high. In Veronesch, for in-
stance, the births are to the deaths nearly as
3 to 1, which is as great a proportion, I believe,
as ever was known in America. The average
result however of these proportions has been, in
some degree, confirmed by subsequent observa-
tions. Mr. Tooke, in his View of the Russian
Empire, makes the general proportion of births
to burials throughout the whole country, as 225
to 100,* which is 24 to 1; and this proportion is
taken from the lists of 1793.f

From the number of yearly marriages, and
yearly births, M. Herman draws the following
conclusions :

Children.
In Petersburg one marriage yields .... 4
In the government of Moscow about .. . 3
Tver 2.90% @aiiego24. Wareol. to. frets 3
NievOeMrGe ee aa no 2 3
er ap ee Ay Seep ea LS 3
Resdwe i oe ioc. nn ee De OO 3
VeroueBCht oc 50s). f.55 4s ee ee 4

* Vol. ii. b. iii. p. 162.
+ Id. p. 145.

Ch. iii. in Russia. 301

pee iis eset! 5) oe Me: shelieiian-tgegers 4
IE LOUAR hc) <)) |. oh tt hooks hae aE”
(OEE Te EN peti) oe Deke eae a +
ET Re 2 Ce aS ARS 4
Government of Tobolsk ........... 4
Town of Tobolsk, from 1768 to 1778, .. 3
- iS Ae from 1779 to 1783, .. 5
. ae eee i se Nn eee ee =

M. Herman observes that the fruitfulness of
marriages in Russia does not exceed that of other
countries, though the mortality is much less, as
appears from the following proportions drawn
from a rough calculation of the number of inha-
bitants in each government:

Dies annually.

in Petersburg 2 EP, Oe ay 1 in 28
In the government of Moscow . . 1 — 32
District of Moscow ........ 1 — 74
MEP QL Y AOI 90 YO Pete! 1 — 75
Navererodenvis..o8 4) eatin 1 — 684
PROMS 2TY Fee) eP27OR IO ee 1 — 704
Speed TET, NNO DIOSL Or Pe ae 1 — 50
Weroncsebe ss Se, Pet PL e 1 — 79
Archbishopric of Vologda ..... 1 — 65
Mrewtraina 2. 9) beer Qupyocre Sy, 1 — 59
Mipemam sels Yip! , OFTEN, Ly. pole yy 1 — 282
Beran Fly Silay, Ope 1 — 29
Government of Tobolsk ...... 1 — 44
Town of Tobolsk ......... 1 — 32
Bulent tease. in, LPSBiAsid aedeaeNee.

It may be concluded, M. Herman says, that in

302 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i

the greatest number of the Russian provinces the
yearly mortality is 1 in 60.*

This average number is: so high, and some of
the proportions in the particular provinces are so
extraordinary, that it is impossible to believe
them accurate. They have been nearly confirmed,
however, by subsequent lists, which, according
to Mr. Tooke, make the general mortality in all
Russia 1 in 58.; But Mr. Tooke himself seems
to doubt the accuracy of this particular depart-
ment of the registers; and I have since heard,
from good authority, that there is reason to be-
lieve that the omissions in the burials are in all
the provinces much greater than the omissions in
the births; and consequently that the very great
excess of births, and very small mortality, are
more apparent than real. It is supposed that
many children, particularly in the Ukraine, are
privately interred by their. fathers without infor-
mation to the priest... The numerous and re-
peated levies of recruits take off great numbers,
whose deaths are not recorded. From the fre-
quent emigrations of whole families to different
parts of the empire. and the transportation of
malefactors to Siberia, great numbers necessarily
die on journeys or in parts where no regular lists
are kept; and some omissions are attributed to
the neglect of the parish priests, who have an in-
terest in recording the births but not the deaths.

* Nova Acta Academiz, tom. iv:
+ View of the Russian Empire, vol. ii. b. iti. p. 148.

Ch. ii. in Russia. 303

To these reasons I should add, that the popula-
tion of each province is probably estimated by
the number of boors belonging to each estate in
it; but it is well known that a great part of them
have leave to reside in the towns. Their births
therefore appear in the province, but their deaths
do not. The apparent mortality of the towns is
not proportionably increased by this emigration,
because it is estimated according to actual enu-
meration. The bills of mortality in the towns
express correctly the numbers dying out of a
certain number known to be actually present in
these towns; but the bills of mortality in the
provinces, purporting to express the numbers
dying out of the estimated population of the pro-
vince, do really only express the numbers dying
out of a much smaller population, because a con-
siderable part of the estimated population is
absent.

In Petersburg, it appeared by an enumeration
in 1784, that the number of males was 126,827,
and of females only 65,619.* The proportion of
males was therefore very nearly double, arising
from the numbers who came to the town to earn
their capitation tax, leaving their families ‘in the
country, and from the custom among the nobles
of retaining a prodigious number of their boors as
household servants in Petersburg and Moscow.

The number of births in proportion to the whole
population in Russia is not different from a com-

* Mémoires par W. L. Krafft, Nova Acta Academiz, tom. iv.

304 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ul.

mon average in other countries, being about 1 in
26.*

According to the paper of M. Herman already
quoted, the proportion of boys dying within the
first year is at Petersburg +, in the government
of Tobolsk =+,, in the town of Tobolsk +4, in the
Archbishopric of Vologda ;4,, in Novogorod sh
in Voronesch -A;, in Rateuecl 2 1, The very small
mortality of infants in some of these provinces,
particularly as the calculation does not seem to
be liable to much error, makes the smallness of
the general mortality more credible. In Sweden,
throughout the whole country, the proportion of
infants which die within the first year is + or
-more.T

The proportion of yearly marriages in Russia to
the whole population is, according to M. Herman,
in the towns, about 1 in 100, and in the provinces
about 1 in70 or 80. According to Mr. Tooke, in
the fifteen governments of which he had lists, the
proportion was | in 92.f

This is not very different from other countries.
In Petersburg indeed the proportion was 1 in
140 ;§ but this is clearly accounted for by what
has already been said of the extraordinary number
of the males in comparison of the females.

The registers for the city of Petersburg are sup-
posed to be such as can be entirely depended

* Tooke’s View of the Russ. Emp. vol. ii. b. iii. p. 147.

+ Mémoires Abrégés de l’Académie de Stockholm, p. 28.

t View of Russ. Emp. vol. ii. b. iii. p. 146.

§ Mémoire par W. L. Krafft, Nova Acta Academie, tom. iv.

Ch. iii. in Russia. 305

upon; and these tend to prove the general salu-
brity of the climate. But there is one fact re-
corded in them, which is directly contrary to what
has been observed in all other countries. This is
a much greater mortality of female children than
of male. In the period from 1781 to 1785, of
1000 boys born 147 only died within the first
year, but of the same number of girls 310.* The
proportion is as 10 to 21, which is inconceivable,
and must indeed have been in some measure ac-
cidental, as in the preceding periods the propor-
tion was only as 10 to 14; but even this is very ,
extraordinary, as it has been generally remarked,
that in every stage of life, except during the period
of childbearing, the mortality among females is
less than among males. The climate of Sweden
does not appear to be very different from that of
Russia; and M. Wargentin observes, with respect
to the Swedish tables, that it appears from them
that the smaller mortality of females is not merely
owing to a more regular and less laborious life,
but is a natural law, which operates constantly
from infancy to old age.t

According to M. Krafft,{ the half of all that are
born at Petersburg live to 25; which shews a
degree of healthiness in early life very unusual for
so large a town; but after twenty, a mortality
much greater than in any other town in Europe

* Mémoire par W. L. Krafft, Nova Acta Academie, tom. iv.
‘+ Mémoires Abrégés de l’Académie de Stockholm, p. 28.

t Nova Acta Academie, tom. iv.

VO. Me x

306 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

takes place, which is justly attributed to the im-
moderate use of brandy.* The mortality between
10 and 15 isso small, that only 1 in 47 males, and
1 in 29 females, die during this period. From 20
to 25 the mortality is so great, that 1 in 9 males
and 1 in 13 females die. The tables shew that
this extraordinary mortality is occasioned princi-
pally by pleurisies, high fevers, and consumptions.
Pleurisies destroy 4+, high fevers +, and consump-
tions +, of the whole population. The three toge-
ther take off + of all that die.

The general mortality during the period from
1781 to 1785 was, according to M. Krafft, 1 in
37. Ina former period it had been 1 in 35, and
in a subsequent period, when epidemic diseases
prevailed, it was 1in29.f This average mortality
is small for a large town; but there is reason to
think, from a passage in M. Krafft’s memoir,{ that
the deaths in the hospitals, the prisons, and in the
Maison des Enfans trouvés, are either entirely
omitted, or not given with correctness; and un-
doubtedly the insertion of these deaths might make
a great difference in the apparent healthiness of
the town.

In the Maison des Enfans trouvés alone the
mortality is prodigious. No regular lists are
published, and verbal communications are always
liable to some uncertainty. I cannot therefore

* Tooke’s View of the Russian Empire, vol, ii. b. iii, p. 155.
t Id. p. 151.
t Id. note, p. 150.

Ch. ii. im Russia. 307

rely upon the information which I collected on the
subject; but from the most careful inquiries which
I could make of the attendants at the house in
Petersburg, I understood that 100 a month was
the common average. In the preceding winter,
which was the winter of 1788, it had not been
uncommon to bury 18aday. The average num-
ber received in the day is about 10; and though
they are all sent into the country to be nursed
three days after they have been in the house, yet,
as many of them are brought in a dying state, the
mortality must necessarily be great. The number
said to be received appears, indeed, almost incre-
dible; but from what I saw myself, I should be
inclined to believe, that both this and the mor-
tality before mentioned might not be far from the
truth. I was at the house about noon, and four
children had been just received, one of which was
evidently dying, and another did not seem as if it
would long survive.

A part of the house is destined to the purpose
of a lying-in hospital, where every woman that
comes is received, and no questions are asked.
The children thus born are brought up by nurses
in the house, and are not sent into the country
like the others. A mother, if she choose it, may
perform the office of nurse to her own child in the
house, but is not permitted to take it away with
her. Achild brought to the house may at any
time be reclaimed by its parents, if they can
prove themselves able to support it; and all the
children are marked and numbered on being re-

x 2

308 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

ceived, that they may be known and produced to
the parents when required, who, if they cannot re-
claim them, are permitted to visit them.

The country nurses receive only two roubles a
month, which, as the current paper rouble is sel-
dom worth more than half a crown, is only about
fifteen pence a week; yet the general expenses
are said to be 100,000 roubles a month. The re-
gular revenues belonging to the institution are not
nearly equal to this sum; but the government
takes on itself the management of the whole affair,
and consequently bears all the additional expenses.
As children are received without any limit, it is
absolutely necessary that the expenses should also
be unlimited. It is evident that the most dread-
ful evils must result from an unlimited reception
of children, and only a limited fund to support
them. Such institutions, therefore, if managed
properly, that is, if the extraordinary mortality do
not prevent the rapid accumulation of expense,
cannot exist long except under the protection of
avery rich government ; and even under such pro-
tection the period of their failure cannot be very
distant.

At six or seven years old the children who have
been sent into the country return to the house,
where they are taught all sorts of trades and —
manual operations. The common hours of work-
ing are from 6 to 12, and from 2 till 4. The girls
leave the house at 18, and the boys at 20 or 21.
When the house is too full, some of those which

Ch. iii. in Russia. 309

have been sent into the country are not brought
back.

The principal mortality, of course, takes place
among the infants who are just received, and the
children which are brought up in the house ; but
there is a considerable mortality amongst those
who are returned from the country, and are in the
firmest stages of life. I was in some degree sur-
prised at hearing this, after having been particu-
larly struck with the extraordinary degree of neat-
ness, cleanliness and sweetness, which appeared
to prevail in every department. The house itself
had been a palace, and all the rooms were large,
airy, and even elegant. I was present while 180
boys were dining. They were all dressed very
neatly; the table-cloth was clean, and each had a
separate napkin to himself. The provisions ap-
peared to be extremely good, and there was not
the smallest disagreeable smell in the room. In
the dormitories there was a separate bed for each
child; the bedsteads were of iron without tester
or curtains, and the coverlids and sheets particu-
larly clean.

This degree of neatness, almost inconceivable
in a large institution, was to be attributed princi-
pally to the present Empress Dowager, who in-
terested herself in all the details of the manage-
ment, and, when at Petersburg, seldom passed a
week without inspecting them in person. The
mortality which takes place in spite of all these
attentions, is a clear proof, that the constitution in
early youth cannot support confinementand work

310 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

for eight hours in the day. The children had all
rather a pale and sickly countenance, and if a
judgment had been formed of the national beauty
from the girls and boys in this establishment, it
would have been most unfavourable.

It is evident, that, if the deaths belonging to
this institution be omitted, the bills of mortality
for Petersburg cannot give a representation in
any degree near the truth of the rea] state of the
city with respect to healthiness. At the same
time it should be recollected, that some of the
observations which attest its healthiness, such as
the number dying in a thousand, &c., are not in-
fluenced by this circumstance; unless indeed we
say, what is perhaps true, that nearly all those
who would find any difficulty in rearing their
children send them to the foundling hospital ; and
the mortality among the children of those who
are in easy circumstances, and live in comfort-
able houses and airy situations, will of course be
much less than a general average taken from all
that are born.

The Maison des Enfans trouvés at Moscow is
conducted exactly upon the same principle as
that at Petersburg; and Mr. Tooke gives an ac-
count of the surprising loss of children, which it
had sustained in twenty years, from the time of
its first establishment to the year 1786. On this
occasion he observes that if we knew precisely
the number of those who died immediately after
reception, or who brought in with them the germ
of dissolution, a small part only of the mortality

— a

Ch. iii. in Russia. 311

would probably appear to be fairly attributable
to the foundling hospital; as none would be so
unreasonable as to lay the loss of these certain
victims to death to the account of a philanthropic
institution, which enriches the country from year
to year with an ever-increasing number of healthy,
active, and industrious burghers.*

It appears to me, however, that the greatest
part of this premature mortality is clearly to be
attributed to these institutions, miscalled philan-
thropic. If any reliance can be placed on the ac-
counts which are given of the infant mortality in
the Russian towns and provinces, it would ap-
pear to be unusually small. The greatness of it,
therefore, at the foundling hospitals, may justly
be laid to the account of institutions which en-
courage a mother to desert her child, at the very
time when of all others it stands most in need of
her fostering care. The frail tenure by which an
infant holds its life will not allow of a remitted
attention, even for a few hours.

The surprising mortality which takes place at
these two foundling hospitals of Petersburg and
Moscow, which are managed in the best possible
manner, (as all who have seen them with one con-
sent assert,) appears to me incontrovertibly to
prove, that the nature of these institutions is not
calculated to answer the immediate end that they
have in view; which I conceive to be the preser-
vation of a certain number of citizens to the state
who might otherwise perhaps perish from poverty

* View of the Russian Empire, vol. ii, b. iii. p. 201.

312 Of the Checks to. Population Bk. il.

or false shame. It is not to be doubted that if
the children received into these hospitals had
been left to the management of their parents,
taking the chance of all the difficulties in which
they might be involved, a much greater propor-
tion of them would have reached the age of man-
hood, and have become useful members of the
state.

When we look a little deeper into this subject,
it will appear that these institutions not only fail
in their immediate object, but by encouraging in
the most marked manner habits of licentiousness,
discourage marriage, and thus weaken the main
spring of population. All the well-informed men,
with whom I conversed on this subject at Peters-
burg, agreed invariably that the institution had
produced this effect in a surprising degree. To
have a child was considered as one of the most
trifling faults which a girl could commit. An
English merchant at Petersburg told me, that a
Russian girl living in his family, under a mistress
who was considered as very strict, had sent six
children to the foundling hospital without the loss
of her place.

It should be observed, however, that generally
speaking six children are not common in this kind
of intercourse. Where habits of licentiousness
prevail, the births are never in the same propor-
tion to the number of people as in the married
state ; and therefore the discouragement to mar-
riage, arising from this licentiousness, and the
diminished number of births, which is the conse-

Ch, ili. in Russia. 313

quence of it, will much more than counterbalance
any encouragement to marriage from the prospect
held out to parents of disposing of the children
which they cannot support.

Considering the extraordinary mortality which
occurs in these institutions, and the habits of
licentiousness which they have an evident ten-
dency to create, it may perhaps be truly said,
that, if a person wished to check population, and
were not solicitous about the means, he could not
propose a more effectual measure, than the esta-
blishment of a sufficient number of foundling hos-
pitals, unlimited as to their reception of children.
And with regard to the moral feelings of a nation,
it is difficult to conceive that they must not be sen-
sibly impaired by encouraging mothers to desert
their offspring, and endeavouring to teach them
that their love for their new-born infants is a pre-
judice which it is the interest of their country to
eradicate. An occasional child-murder from false
shame, is saved at a very high price, if it can only
be done by the sacrifice of some of the best and
most useful feelings of the human heart in a great
part of the nation.

On the supposition that foundling hospitals at-
tained their proposed end, the state of slavery in
Russia would perhaps render them more justifi-
able in that country than in any other; because
every child brought up at the foundling hospitals
becomes a free citizen, and in this capacity is
likely to be more useful to the state than if it had
merely increased the number of slaves belonging

314 Of the Checks to Population — Bk. ii.

to an individual proprietor. But in countries not
similarly circumstanced, the most complete suc-
cess in institutions of this kind would bea glaring
injustice to other parts of the society. The true
encouragement to marriage is the high price of
labour, and an increase of employments which
require to be supplied with proper hands ; but if
the principal part of these employments, appren-
ticeships, &c., be filled up by foundlings, the de-
mand for labour among the legitimate part of the
society must be proportionally diminished, the
difficulty of supporting a family increased, and
the best encouragement to marriage removed.
Russia has great natural resources. Its produce
is, in its present state, above its consumption ; and
it wants nothing but greater freedom of industrious
exertion, and an adequate vent for its commodi-
ties in the interior parts of the country, to occa-
sion an increase of population astonishingly rapid.
The principal obstacle to this, is the vassalage, or
rather slavery, of the peasants, and the ignorance
and indolence which almost necessarily accom-
pany sucha state. The fortune of a Russian noble-
man is measured by the number of boors that he
possesses, which in general are saleable like cattle,
and not adscripti glebe. His revenue arises from
a capitation tax on all the males. When the boors
upon an estate are increasing, new divisions of
land are made at certain intervals; and either
more is taken into cultivation, or the old shares
are subdivided. Each family is awarded such a
portion of land as it can properly cultivate, and

Ch. iii. in Russia. 315

will enable it to pay the tax. It is evidently the
interest of the boor not to improve his lands much,
and appear to get considerably more than is ne-
cessary to support his family and pay the _poll-
tax; because the natural consequence will be,
that in the next division which takes place, the
farm which he before possessed will be considered
as capable of supporting two families, and he will
be deprived of the half of it. The indolent culti-
vation that such a state of things must produce is
easily conceivable. When a boor is deprived of
much of the land which he had’ before used, he
makes complaints of inability to pay his tax, and
demands permission for himself or his sons to go
and earn it in the towns. This permission is in
general eagerly sought after, and is granted with-
out much difficulty by the Seigneurs, in conside-
ration of a small increase of the poll-tax. The
consequence is, that the lands in the country are
left half cultivated, and the genuine spring of po-
pulation impaired in its source.

A Russian nobleman at Petersburg, of whom I
asked some questions respecting the management
of his estate, told me, that he never troubled him-
self to inquire whether it was properly cultivated
or not, which he seemed to consider as a matter
in which he was not in the smallest degree con-
cerned. Cela mest égal, says he, cela me fait ni
bien ni mal. He gave his boors permission to earn
their tax how and where they liked, and as long
as he received it he was satisfied. But it is evi-
dent that by this kind of conduct he sacrificed
the future population of his estate, and the con-

316 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

sequent future increase of his revenues, to consi-
derations of indolence and present convenience.

It is certain, however, that of late years many
noblemen have attended more to the improvement
and population of their estates, instigated princi-
pally by the precepts and example of the empress
Catharine, who made the greatest exertions to
advance the cultivation of the country. Her im-
mense importations of German settlers not only
contributed to people her state with free citizens
instead of slaves, but, what was perhaps of still
more importance, to set an example of industry,
and of modes of directing that industry, totally
unknown to the Russian peasants.

These exertions have been attended, upon the
whole, with great success; and it is not to be
doubted that, during the reign of the late em-
press and since, a very considerable increase of
cultivation and of population has been going
forward in almost every part of the Russian em-
pire.

In the year 1763, an enumeration of the people,
estimated by the poll-tax, gave a population of
14,726,696; and the same kind of enumeration in
1783 gave a population of 25,677,000, which, if
correct, shews a very extraordinary increase; but
it is supposed that the enumeration in 1783 was
more correct and complete than the one in 1763.
Including the provinces not subject to the poll-tax,
the general calculation for 1763 was 20,000,000, .
and for 1796, 36,000,000.*

* Tooke’s View of the Russian Empire, vol. ii. book iii. sect. i.
p. 126, et seq.

Ch. iii. in Russia. SE7

In a subsequent edition of Mr. Tooke’s View of
the Russian Empire, a table of the births, deaths
and marriages in the Greek church, is given for
the year 1799, taken from a respectable German
periodical publication, and faithfully extracted
from the general returns received by the synod.
It contains all the eparchies except Bruzlaw,
which, from the peculiar difficulties attending a
correct list of mortality in that eparchy, could not
be inserted. The general results are,

Males. Females. Totals.
Births, 921,015. 460,900. 991,915.
Deaths, 275,082. 264,807. 540,389.

Marriages, 257,513.

Overplus § Males, 255,432
of births, Females. 196,093

To estimate the population Mr. Tooke multi-
plies the deaths by 58. But as this table has the
appearance of being more correct than those
which preceded it, and as the proportion of deaths
compared with the births is greater in this table
than in the others, it is probable that 58 is too
great a multiplier. It may be observed, that in
this table the births are to the deaths nearly as
183 to 100, the births to marriages as 385 to
100, and the deaths to the marriages as 210 to
100,

These are all more probable proportions than
the results of the former tables.

451,525.

318 Of the Checks to. Population Bk. il.

1825.

The population of Russia, including the wan-
dering tribes, and the acquired territories, was in
1822 estimated at 54,476,931. But the most
interesting part of the population to examine, is
that where lists of the births, deaths and mar-
riages can be obtained.

The following table, which is given in the Ency-
clopedia Britannica, under the head of Russia, is
formed from the reports published by the Synod,
including only the members of the Orthodox Greek
Church, the most numerous body of the people.

1806 1810 1816 1820
Marriages 299,057 320,389 329,683 317,805
Births 1,361,286 | 1,374,926 | 1,457,606 | 1,570,399
Deaths 818,585 903,380 820,383 917,680

The population belonging to the Greek Church
is estimated at 40,351,000.

If the average excess of the births above the
deaths be applied to the 14 years ending with
1820, it will appear that, from this excess alone,
the population had increased in that period,
8,064,616; and if the population in 1820 were
40,351,000, the population in 1806 was32,286,384.
Comparing the average excess of births with the
average population during the 14 years, it will be
found that the proportion is as 1 to 63, which

Ch. iii. in Russia, 319

(according to Table II. at the end of the 11th
Chapter of this Book) would double the population
in less than 44 years; a most rapid rate of in-
crease. .

The proportion of births to marriages is a little
above 43 to 1; of births to deaths, as 5 to 3; of
marriages to the population, as 1 to 114; of births
to the population as 1 to 25.2; and of deaths to
the population, or the mortality, as 1 to 41.9.

Most of these proportions are essentially dif-
ferent from those mentioned in the earlier part of
this chapter; but there is good reason to believe
that they are more accurate ; and they certainly
accord better with the very rapid increase of po-
pulation which is known to be going on in Russia.

The apparent increase of mortality is to be at-
tributed rather to the former inaccuracy of the
registers, than to increased unhealthiness. It is
now allowed that the registers before 1796 were
very imperfectly kept.

( 320 ) Bk. ii.

CHAP. IV.

Of the Checks to Population in the Middle Parts of
Europe.

{ wave dwelt longer on the northern states of
Europe than their relative importance might to
some appear to demand, because their internal
economy is in many respects essentially different
from our own, and a personal though slight ac-
quaintance with these countries has enabled me
to mention a few particulars which have not yet
been before the public. In the middle parts of
Europe the division of labour, the distribution of
employments and the proportion of the inhabi-
tants of the country, differ so little from what is
observable in England, that it would be in vain
to seek for the checks to their population in any
peculiarity of habits and manners sufficiently
marked to admit of description. I shall therefore
endeavour to direct the reader's attention prin-
cipally to some inferences drawn from the lists of
births, marriages and deaths in different coun-
tries; and these data will, in many important
points, give us more information respecting their
internal economy than we could receive from the
most observing traveller.

One of the most curious and instructive points
of view, in which we can consider lists of’ this
kind, appears to me to be the dependence of the

Ch.iv. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 321

marriages on the deaths. It has been justly ob-
served by Montesquieu, that, wherever there is a
place for two persons to live comfortably, a marriage
will certainly ensue:* but in most of the coun-
tries in Europe, in the present state of their po-
pulation, experience will not allow us to expect
any sudden and great increase in the means of
supporting a family. The place therefore for the
new marriage must, in general, be made by the
dissolution of an old one; and we find in conse-
quence, that except after some great mortality,
from whatever cause it may have proceeded, or
some sudden change of policy peculiarly favour-
able to cultivation and trade, the number of annual
mairiages is regulated principally by the number
of annual deaths. They reciprocally influence
each other. ‘There are few countries in which
the common people have so much foresight, as to
defer marriage till they have a fair prospect of
being able to support properly all their children.
Some of the mortality therefore, in almost every
country, is forced by the too great frequency of
marriage; and in every country a great mortality,
whether arising principally from this’ cause or
occasioned by the number of great towns and
manufactories and the natural unhealthiness of the
situation, will necessarily produce a great fre-
quency of marriage.

A most striking exemplification of this observa-
tion occurs in the case of some villages in Holland.
Sussmilch has calculated the mean proportion of

* Esprit des Loix, liv. xxii. c. x.

VOL. I. Y

322 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. u.

annual marriages compared with the number of
inhabitants as between 1 in 107 and 1 in 113, in
countries which have not been thinned by plagues
or wars, or in which there is no sudden increase
in the means of subsistence.* And Crome, a later
statistical writer, taking a mean between I in 92
and 1 in 122, estimates the average proportion of
marriages to inhabitants as 1 to 108.¢ But in the
registers of 22 Dutch villages, the accuracy of
which, according to Sussmilch, there is no reason
to doubt, it appears that out of 64 persons there
is 1 annual marriage.{ This is a most extraor-
dinary deviation from the mean proportion. When
I first saw this number mentioned, not having then
adverted to the mortality in these villages, I was
much astonished; and very little satisfied with
Sussmilch’s attempt to account for it, by talking
of the great number of trades, and the various
means of getting a livelihood in Holland;§ as it is
evident that, the country having been long in the
same state, there would be no reason to expect
any great accession of new trades and new means

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. iv. sect. bi. p. 126.

+ Crome, ueber die Grosse und Bevolkerung der Europ. Staaten,
p. 88, Leips. 1785.

¢ Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. iv. sect. lviii. p. 127.
Such a proportion of marriages could not, however, be supplied in
a country like Holland, from the births within the territory, but
must be caused principally by the influx of foreigners,: and it is
known that such an influx, before the Revolution, was constantly
taking place. Holland, indeed, has been called the grave of Ger-
many." °

§ Sussmilch, Géttliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. iv. sect. lviii. p. 128.

Ch. iv. the middle Parts of Europe. 323

of subsistence, and the old ones would of course
all be full. But the difficulty was in a great mea-
sure solved, when it appeared that the mortality
was between 1 in 22 and 1 in 23,* instead of
being 1 in 36, as is usual when the marriages are
in the proportion of 1 to 108. The births and
deaths were nearly equal. The extraordinary
number of marriages was not caused by the
opening of any new sources of subsistence, and
therefore produced no increase of population.
It was merely occasioned by the rapid dissolution
of the old marriages by death, and the consequent
vacancy of some employment by which a family
could be supported.

It might be a question, in this case, whether
the too great frequency of marriage, that is, the
pressure of the population too hard against the
limits of subsistence, contributed most to produce
the mortality; or the mortality, occasioned natu-
rally by the employments of the people and un-
healthiness of the country, the frequency of mar-
riage. In the present instance I should, without
doubt, incline to the latter supposition; particu-
larly as it seems to be generally agreed, that the
common people in Holland before the Revolution
were, upon the whole, ina good state. The great
mortality probably arose partly from the natural
marshiness of the soil and the number of canals,
and partly from the very great proportion of the
people engaged in sedentary occupations, and the

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. ii. sect. xxxvi. p- 923

y 2

324 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. ii.

very small number in the healthy nego
of agriculture.

A very curious and striking contrast. to these

Dutch villages, tending to illustrate the present
subject, will be recollected in what was said re-
specting the state of Norway. In Norway the
mortality is 1 in 48, and the marriages are 1 in
130. \ In the Dutch villages the mortality 1 in 23,
and the marriages 1 in 64. The difference both
in the marriages and deaths is above double.
They maintain their relative proportions in a very
exact manner, and shew how much the deaths
and marriages mutually depend upon each other ;
and that, except where some sudden start in the
agriculture of a country enlarges the means of
subsistence, an increase of marriages must be’
accompanied by an increase of mortality, and
vice versa.
- In Russia this sudden start in agriculture has
im a great measure taken place; and consequently,
though the mortality is very small, yet the pro-
portion of marriages is not so. But in the progress
of the population of Russia, if the proportion of
marriages remain the same as at present, the
mortality will inevitably increase; or if the mor-
tality remain nearly the same, the proportion of
marriages will diminish.

Sussmilch has produced some striking instances
of this gradual decrease in the proportional num-
ber of marriages, in the progress of a country to
a greater degree of cleanliness, healthiness and
population, and a more complete occupation of all
the means of gaining a livelihood.

Ch. iv. the middle Parts of Europe. 325

In the town of Halle, in the year 1700, the
number of annual marriages was to the whole po-
pulation as 1 to 77. During the course of the 55
following years, this proportion changed gradually,
according to Sussmilch’s calculation, to 1 in 167.*
This is a most extraordinary difference, and, if
the calculation were quite accurate, would prove
to what a degree the check to marriage had ope-
rated, and how completely it had measured itself
to the means of subsistence. As however the
number of people is estimated by calculation and
not taken from enumerations, this very great dif-
ference in the proportions may not be perfectly
correct, or may be occasioned in part by other
causes.

In the town of Leipsic, in the year 1620, the
annual marriages were to the population as 1 to
82; from the year 1741 to 1756 they were as | to
120.7

In Augsburg, in 1510, the proportion of mar-
riages to the population was 1 to 86; in 1750 as 1
to 123.

In Dantzic, in the year 1705, the proportion
was as 1 to 89; in 1745 as 1 to 118.§

In the dukedom of Magdeburgh, in 1700, the
proportion was as | to 87; from 1752 to 1755 as
1 to 125.

In the principality of Halberstadt in 1690,

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. iv. sect, Ixii. p. 132,
+ Id. sect. Ixiii. p. 134.

t Id. sect. Ixiv. p. 134.

§ Id. sect. Ixy. p. 135.

326 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. i.

the proportion was as 1 to 88; in 1756 as 1 to
112.

In the dukedom of Cleves, in 1705, the pro-
portion was | to 83; in 1755, 1 to 100.

In the Churmark of Brandenburgh, in 1700,
the proportion was 1 to 76; in 1755, 1 to
108.*

More instances of this kind might be produced;
but these are sufficient to shew that in countries,
where from a sudden increase in the means of
subsistence, arising either from a great previous
mortality or from improving cultivation and trade,
room has been made for a great proportion of
marriages, this proportion will annually decrease
as the new employments are filled up, and there
is no further room for an increasing population.

But in countries which have long been fully
peopled, in which the mortality continues the
same, and in which no new sources of subsistence
are opening, the marriages being regulated prin-
cipally by the deaths, will generally bear nearly
the same proportion to the whole population at
one period as at another. And the same con-
stancy will take place even in countries where
there is an annual increase in the means of subsis-
tence, provided this increase be uniform and per-
manent. Supposing it to be such, as for half a
century to allow every year of a fixed proportion
of marriages beyond those dissolved by death, the
population would then be increasing, and perhaps

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. iv. sect. lxxi. p. 140.

Ch. iy. the middle Parts of Europe. 327

rapidly; but it is evident, that the proportion of
marriages to the whole population might remain
the same during the whole period.

This proportion Sussmilch has endeavoured to
ascertain in different countries and different situa-
tions. In the villages of the Churmark of Bran-
denburgh, one marriage out of 109 persons takes
place annually:* and the general proportion for
agricultural villages he thinks may be taken at
between 1 in 108 and 1 in 115.f In the small
towns of the Churmark, where the mortality is
greater, the proportion is | to 98;{ in the Dutch
villages mentioned before, 1 to 64; in Berlin 1
to 110;{ in Paris 1 to 137.|| According to Crome,
in the wunmarrying cities of Paris auied Rome the
proportion is only 1 to 60.9]

All general proportions however of every kind
should be applied with considerable caution, as it
seldom happens that the increase of food and of
population is uniform; and when the circum-
stances of a country are varying, either from this
cause or from any change in the habits of the
people with respect to prudence and cleanliness,
it is evident that a proportion which is true at one
‘period will not be so at another.

* Sussmilch, Gottlicke Ordnung, vol. i. c. iv. sect. lvi. p- 125:

+ Id. sect. Ixxv. p. 147.

¢ Id. sect. Ix. p. 129.

§ Ibid.

|| Id. sect. lxix. p. 137.

4] Crome, ueber die Grésse und Bevélkerung der Europaischen
Staaten, p. 89.

328 Of the Checks to Poputation in Bk. ii.

Nothing is more difficult than to lay down rules
on these subjects that do not admit of exceptions.
Generally speaking, it might be taken for granted
that an increased facility in the means of gaining
a livelihood, either from a great previous mortality
or from improving cultivation and trade, would
produce a greater proportion of annual marriages ;
but this effect might not perhaps follow. Sup-
posing the people to have been before in a very
depressed state, and much of the mortality to have
arisen from the want of foresight which usually
accompanies such a state, it is possible that the
sudden improvement of their condition might give
them more of adecent and proper pride; and the
consequence would be, that the proportional num-
ber of marriages might remain nearly the same,
but they would all rear more of their children, and
the additional population that was wanted would
be supplied by a diminished mortality, instead of
an increased number of births.

In the same manner, if the population of any
country had been long stationary, and would not
easily admit of an increase, it is possible that a
change in the habits of the people, from improved
education or any other cause, might diminish the
proportional number of marriages; but as fewer
children would be lost in infancy from the diseases
consequent on poverty, the diminution in the num-
ber of marriages would be balanced by the dimi-
nished mortality, and the population would be

kept up to its proper level by a smaller number of
births, ;

Ch. iv. the middle Parts of Europe. 329

Such changes therefore in the habits of a people
should evidently be taken into consideration.

The most general rule that can be laid down on
this subject is, perhaps, that any direct encourage-
ments to marriage must be accompanied by an
increased mortality. The natural tendency to
marriage is in every country so great, that with-
out any encouragements whatever a proper place
for a marriage will always be filled up. Such en-
couragements therefore must either be perfectly
futile, or produce a marriage where there is not a
proper place for one; and the consequence must
necessarily be increased poverty and mortality.
Montesquieu, in his Lettres Persannes, says, that,
in the past wars of France, the fear of being en-
rolled in the militia tempted a great number of
young men to marry without the proper means of
supporting a family, and the effect was the birth
of a crowd of children, ‘‘ que l’on cherche encore
«* en France, et que la misere, la famine et les
“< maladies en ont fait disparoitre.”*

After so striking an illustration of the necessary
effects of direct encouragements to marriage, it is
perfectly astonishing that, in his Esprit des Loix
he should say that Europe is still in a state to re-
quire laws, which favour the propagation of the
human species.

Sussmilch adopts the same ideas; and though
he contemplates the case of the number of mar-

* Lettre cxxii.
+ Esprit des Loix, liv. xxiii. c. xxvi.

330 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. 11.

riages coming necessarily to a stand when the
food is not capable of further increase, and ex-
amines some countries in which the number of
contracted marriages is exactly measured by the
number dissolved by death, yet he still thinks that
it is one of the principal duties of government to
attend to the number of marriages. He cites the
examples of Augustus and Trajan, and thinks that
a prince or a statesman would really merit the
name of father of his people, if, from the propor-
tion of 1 to 120 or 125, he could increase the mar-
riages to the proportion of 1 to80 or 90.* But as
it clearly appears, from the instances which he
himself produces, that, in countries which have
been long tolerably well peopled, death is the most
powerful of all the encouragements to marriage;
the prince or statesman, who should succeed in
thus greatly increasing the number of marriages,
might, perhaps, deserve much more justly the title
of destroyer, than father, of his people.
The proportion of yearly births to the whole po-
pulation must evidently depend principally upon
the proportion of the people marrying annually ;
and therefore, in countries which will not admit
of a great increase of population, must, like the
marriages, depend principally on the deaths.
Where an actual decrease of population is not
taking place, the births will always supply the
vacancies made by death, and exactly so much

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. iv. sect, xxviii.
p tol.

Ch. iv. the middle Parts of Europe. 33]

more as the increasing resources of the country
willadmit. In almost every part of Europe, during
the intervals of the great plagues, epidemics or
destructive wars, with which it is occasionally
visited, the births exceed the deaths; but as the
mortality varies very much in different countries
and situations, the births will be found to vary in
the same manner, though from the excess of births
above deaths which most countries can admit, not
in the same degree.

In 39 villages of Holland, where the deaths are
about | in 23, the births are also about | in 23.*
In 15 villages round Paris, the births bear the
same, or even a greater, proportion to the whole
population, on account of a still greater mortality ;
the births are 1 in 22-,, and the deaths the same.f
In the small towns of Brandenburgh which are in
an increasing state, the mortality is 1 in 29, and
the births 1 in 24.7%..[ In Sweden, where the
mortality is about 1 in 35, the births are 1 in 28.
In 1056 villages of Brandenburgh in which the
mortality is about 1 in 39 or 40, the births are
about 1 in 30.|| In Norway, where the mortality
is 1 in 48, the births are 1 in 34.4 In all these
instances, the births are evidently measured by
the deaths, after making a proper allowance for

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. vi. s. exvi. p. 225.
+ Ibid. and c. ii. s. xxvii. p. 93.

+ Id. c. ii. s. xxviii. p. 80, and c. vi. s. cxvi, p. 225.

§ Id. c. vi. s. cxvi. p. 229.

\| Ibid.

4] Thaarup’s Statistik, vol. ii. p, 4.

332 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. ii.

the excess of births which the state of each coun-
try will admit.

Statistical writers have endeavoured to obtain
a general measure of mortality for all countries
taken together ; but, if such a measure could be
obtained, I do not see what good purpose it could
answer. It would be but of little use in ascer-
taining the population of Europe or of the world ;
and it is evident, that in applying it to particular
countries or particular places, we might be led
into the grossest errors. When the mortality of
the human race in different countries and different
situations, varies so much as from | in 20 to 1 in
60, no general average could be used with safety
in a particular case, without such a knowledge of
the circumstances of the country, with respect to
the number of towns, the habits of the people and
the healthiness of the situation, as would pro-
bably supersede the necessity of resorting to any
general proportion, by the knowledge of the par-
ticular proportion suited to the country.
- There is one leading circumstance, however,
affecting the mortality of countries, which may be
considered as very general, and which is, at the
same time, completely open to observation. This
is the number of towns, and the proportion of town
to country inhabitants. The unfavourable effects
of close habitations and sedentary employments
on the health are universal; and therefore on the
number of people living in this manner, compared
with the number employed in agriculture, will
much depend the general mortality of the state.

Ch. iv. the middle Parts of Europe. 333

Upon this principle it has been calculated that
when the proportion of the people in the towns to
those in the country is as 1 to 3, then the mor-
tality is about 1 in 36: which rises to 1 in 35, or
1 in 33, when the proportion of townsmen to vil-
lagers is 2 to 5, or 3 to 7; and falls below 1 in 36,
when this proportion is 2 to 7, or | to4. On these
grounds the mortality in Prussia is 1 in 38; in
Pomerania, 1 in 371; in the Neumark 1 in 37; in
the Churmark 1 in 35; according to the lists for
1756.*

The nearest average measure of mortality for all
countries, taking towns and villages together, is,
according to Sussmilch, 1 in 36., But Crome
thinks that this measure, though it might possibly
have suited the time at which Sussmilch wrote, is
not correct at present, when in most of the states
of Europe both the number and size of the towns
have increased.{ He seems to be of opinion in-
deed, that this mortality was rather below the
truth in Sussmilch’s-time, and that now | in 30
would be found to be nearer the average measure.
It is not improbable that Sussmilch’s proportion
is too small, as he had a little tendency, with many
other statistical writers, to throw out of his cal-
culations epidemic years; but Crome has not ad-
vanced proofs sufficient to establish a general mea-
sure of mortality in opposition to that proposed by

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. iii. p. 60.

+ Vol. i. c. ii. s. xxv. p. 91.

¢ Crome, tber die Grosse und Bevolkerung der Europaischen
Staaten, p. 116.

334 Of the Checks to Population in Bk. ii.

Sussmilch. He quotes Busching, who states the
mortality of the whole Prussian monarchy to be 1
in 30.* But it appears that this inference was drawn
from lists for only three years, a period much too
short to determine any general average. This pro-
portion, for the Prussian monarchy, is indeed com-
pletely contradicted by subsequent observations
mentioned by Crome. According to lists for five
years, ending in 1784, the mortality was only 1
in 37., During the same periods, the births were
to the deaths as 131 to 100. In Silesia the mor-
tality from 1781 to 1784 was 1 in 30; and the
births to deaths as 128 to100. In Gelderland the
mortality from 1776 to 1781 was 1 in 27, and the
births 1 in 26. These are the two provinces of
the monarchy, in which the mortality is the
greatest. In some others itis very small. From
1781 to 1784 the average mortality in Neufchatel
and Ballengin was only | in 44, and the births 1
in 31. In the principality of Halberstadtz, from
1778 to 1784, the mortality was still less, being
only 1 in 45 or 46, and the proportion of births to
deaths 137 to 100.f

The general conclusion which Crome draws is,
that the states of Europe may be divided into
three classes, to which a different measure of
mortality ought to be applied. In the richest and
most populous states, where the inhabitants of
the towns are to the inhabitants of the country in

* Crome, tiber die Bevolkerung der Europaisch. Staat. p. 118.

. + Id. p. 120,
t Id. p. 122.

Ch. iv. | the middle Parts of Europe. 335

so high a proportion as 1 to 3, the mortality may
be taken as 1 in 30. In those countries which are
ina middle state with regard to population and
cultivation, the mortality may be considered as 1
in 82. And in the thinly-peopled northern states,
Sussmilch’s proportion of 1 in 36 may be applied.*

These proportions seem to make the general
mortality too great, even after allowing epidemic
years to have their full effect in the calculations.
The improved habits of cleanliness, which appear
to have prevailed of late years in most of the
towns of Europe, have probably, in point of salu-.
brity, more than counterbalanced their increased
size.

1825.

In acensus which was made in 1817, of the
population of Prussia in its present enlarged
state, the number of inhabitants was found to be
10,536,571, of which 5,244,808 were males, and
5,320,535 were females. The births were 454,031,
the deaths 306,484, and the marriages 112,034.
Of the births 53,576, or = were illegitimate.
The proportion of males to females born was as
20 to 19. Of the illegitimate children 3 out of
every 10 died in the first year after birth; of the
legitimate 2 out of 10.T

The numbers here stated give a proportion of
births to deaths, as 149 to 100; of births to mar-

* Crome’s Europaischen Staaten, p. 127.

+ Supplement to the Encyclopedia Britannica, Article Prussia.

336 Of the Checks to Population, &c. Bk. ii.

riages as 4 to 1; of births to the population as 1 to
23.2; of deaths to the population, of males, as
1 to 33; of females, as 1 to 36; of both together,
as 1 to 343; and of marriages to the population as
1 to 94. The proportion of the excess of the
births above the deaths to the population is as 1
to 62; an excess which, if continued, would double
the population in about 43 years. As it is not
however stated how long these proportions have
continued, no very certain conclusions can be
drawn from them; but there is little doubt that the
population is proceeding with great rapidity.

CHAP. V.

Of the Checks to Population in Switzerland.

Tus situation of Switzerland is in many respects
so different from the other states of Europe, and
some of the facts that have been collected re-
specting it are so curious, and tend so strongly
to illustrate the general principles of this work,
that it seems to merit a separate consideration.

About 35 or 40 years ago, a great and sudden
alarm appears to have prevailed in Switzerland
respecting the depopulation of the country; and
the transactions of the Economical Society of
Berne, which had been established some years
before, were crowded with papers deploring the
decay of industry, arts, agriculture and manufac-
tures, and the imminent danger of a total want
of people. The greater part of these writers
considered the depopulation of the country as a
fact so obvious, as not to require proof. They
employed themselves, therefore, chiefly in pro-
posing remedies, and, among others, the importa-
tion of midwives, the establishment of foundling
hospitals, the portioning of young virgins, the
prevention of emigration, and the encouragement
of foreign settlers.*

A paper containing very valuable materials

* See the different Memoirs for the year 1766.
VOL. I. Z

338 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

was, however, about this time published by M.
Muret, minister of Vevay, who, before he pro-
ceeded to point out remedies, thought it neces-
sary to substantiate the existence of the evil.
He made a very laborious and careful research |
into the registers of the different parishes, up to
the time of their first establishment, and compared
the number of births which had taken place during
three different periods of 70 years each, the first
ending in 1620, the second in 1690, and the third
in 1760.* Finding upon this comparison, that
the number of births was rather less in the second
than in the first period, (and by the help of sup-
posing some omissions in the second period, and
some redundances in the third,) that the number
of births in the third was also less than in the
second, he considered the evidence for a con-
tinued depopulation of the country from the year
1550 as incontrovertible.

Admitting all the premises, the conclusion is
not perhaps so certain as he imagined it to be:
and from other facts which appear in his memoir,
I am strongly disposed to believe, that Switzer-
land, during this period, came under the case
supposed in the last chapter; and that the im-
proving habits of the people with respect to pru-
dence, cleanliness &c., had increased gradually
the general healthiness of the country, and, by
enabling them to rear up to manhood a greater

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Economique de Berne. Année
1766, premiére partie, p. 15 et seq. octavo. Berne,

Ch. v. in Switzerland. — 339

proportion of their children, had furnished the
requisite population with a smaller number of
births. Of course, the proportion of annual
births to the whole population, in the latter pe-
riod, would be less than in the former.

From accurate calculations of M. Muret, it ap-
pears, that during the last period the mortality
was extraordinarily small, and the proportion of
children reared from infancy to puberty extra-
ordinarily great.* In the former periods this
could not have been the case in the same degree.
M. Muret himself observes, that ‘‘ the ancient
*« depopulation of the country was to be attributed
‘“< to the frequent plagues which, in former times,
«« desolated it;” and adds, “if it could support
‘itself, notwithstanding the frequency of so
** dreadful an evil, it is a proof of the goodness
“of the climate, and of the certain resources
“* which the country could furnish, for a prompt
“recovery of its population.t He neglects to
apply this observation as he ought, and forgets
that such a prompt repeopling could not take
place without an unusual increase of births, and
that, to enable a country to support itself against
such a source of destruction, a greater proportion
of births to the whole population would be ne-
cessary than at other times.

In one of his tables he gives a list of all the
plagues that have prevailed in Switzerland since

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Economique de Berne, table
xiii. p. 120. Année 1766.
+ Id. p. 22.
y Ay

340 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

the year 1312, from which it appears that this
dreadful scourge desolated the country, at short
intervals, during the whole of the first period, and
extended its occasional ravages to within 22
years of the termination of the second.*

It would be contrary to every rule of probability
to suppose that, during the frequent prevalence
of this disorder, the country could be particularly
healthy, and the general mortality extremely
small. Let us suppose it to have been such as
at present takes place in many other countries,
which are exempt from this calamity, about 1 in
32, instead of 1 in 45, as in the last period. The
births would of course keep their relative propor-
tion, and instead of 1 in 36,f be about I in 26.
In estimating the population of the country by
the births, we should thus have two very different
multipliers for the different periods; and though
the absolute number of births might be greater
in the first period, yet the fact would by no means
imply a greater population.

In the present instance, the sum of the births
in 17 parishes, during the first 70 years, is given
as 49,860, which annually would be about 712.
This, multiplied by 26, would indicate a popula-
tion of 18,512.- In the last period the sum of the
births is given as 43,910,[ which will be about
626 annually. This, multiplied by 36, will indi-

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ. de Berne. Année 1766,
premiere partie, table iv. p. 22.

+ Id. table i. p. 21.

+ Id. table i. p. 16.

Ch. v. in Switzerland. ‘ 341

cate a population of 22,536; and if the multipliers
be just, it will thus appear, that instead of the
decrease which was intended to be proved, there
had been a considerable increase.

That I have not estimated the mortality too
high during the first period, | have many reasons
for supposing, particularly a calculation respect-
ing the neighbouring town of Geneva, in which it
appears that, in the 16th century, the probability
of life, or the age to which half of the born live,
was only 4°883, rather less than four years and
ths; and the mean life 18-511, about 18 years
and ahalf. In the 17th century, the probability
of lifé was 11:607, above 11 years and a half; the
mean life 23°358. In the 18th century the proba-
bility of life had increased to 27:183, 27 years
and nearly a fifth, and the mean life to 32 years
and a fifth.*

It is highly probable that a diminution of mor-
tality, of the same kind, though perhaps not in
the same degree, should have taken place im
Switzerland; and we know from the registers of
other countries which have been already noticed,
that a greater mortality naturally produces a
greater proportion of births.

Of this dependence of the births on the deaths
M. Muret himself produces many instances; but
not being aware of the true principle of popula-
tion, they only serve to astonish him, and he does
not apply them.

* See a paper in the Biblioth¢que Britannique, published: at
Geneva, tom, iv. p. 328.

342 Of the Checks to Population __ Bk. ii.

Speaking of the want of fruitfulness in the Swiss
women, he says, that Prussia, Brandenburgh,
Sweden, France, and indeed every country, the
registers of which he had seen, give a greater pro-
portion of baptisms to the number of inhabitants,
than the Pays de Vaud, where this proportion is
only as 1 to36.* He adds, that from calculations
lately made in the Lyonois, it appeared, that in
Lyons itself the proportion of baptisms was 1 in
28, in the small towns 1 in 25, and in the parishes
1 in 23 or 24. What a prodigious difference, he
exclaims, between the Lyonois and the Pays de
Vaud, where the most favourable proportion, and
that only in two small parishes of extraordinary
fecundity, is not above 1 in 26, and in many pa-
rishes it is considerably less than 1 in 40! The
same difference, he remarks, takes place in the
mean life. In the Lyonois it is a little above 25
years, while in the Pays de Vaud the lowest mean
life, and that only in a single marshy and un-
healthy parish, is 291 years, and in many places
it is above 45 years.

*« But whence comes it,” he says, “that the
‘“* country where children escape the best from
“‘ the dangers of infancy, and where the mean life,
“‘in whatever way the calculation is made, is
‘“‘ higher than in any other, should be precisely
“that in which the fecundity is the smallest?

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ. de Berne. Année 1766,
premiere partie, p. 47, 48.

+ Id. p. 48.

+ Ib.

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 343

«« How comes it again that, of all our parishes, the
‘one which gives the mean life the highest,
*« should also be the one where the tendency to
“« increase is the smallest?

‘«¢ To resolve this question, I will hazard a con-
*“‘jecture, which, however, I give only as such.
«Ts it not, that in order to maintain in all places
‘the proper equilibrium of population, God has
«‘ wisely ordered things in such a manner, as that
«the force of life in each country should be in
“« the inverse ratio of its fecundity ?*

“In fact, experience verifies my conjecture.
‘« Leyzin, a village in the Alps, with a population
«< of 400 persons, produces but a little above eight
‘‘ children a year. The Pays de Vaud, in general,
‘in proportion to the same number of inhabitants,
‘produces 11, and the Lyonois 16. But if it
“happen, that at the age of 20 years, the 8, the
‘11, and the 16, are reduced to the same number,
‘* it will appear that the force of life gives in one
‘place what fecundity does in another. And
‘‘thus the most healthy countries, having less
“fecundity, will not overpeople themselves, and
“‘ the unhealthy countries, by their extraordinary
‘fecundity, will be able to sustain their popu-
* lation.”

We may judge of the surprize of M. Muret, at
finding from the registers, that the most healthy
people were the least prolific, by his betaking

x

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ. de Berne. Année 1766,
premiere partie, p. 48, et seq.

344 Of the Checks to Population Bk. il.

himself to a miracle in order to account for it.
But the difficulty does not seem, in the present
instance, to be worthy of such an interference.
The fact may be accounted for, without resorting
to so strange a supposition as that the fruitfulness
of women should vary inversely as their health.

There is certainly a considerable difference in
the healthiness of different countries, arising
‘partly from the soil and situation, and partly from
the habits and employment of the people. When,
from these or any other causes whatever, a great
mortality takes place, a proportional number of
births immediately ensues, owing both to the
sgreater number of yearly marriages from the in-
creased demand for labour, and the greater fecun-
dity of each marriage from being contracted at an
earlier, and naturally a more prolific age.

On the contrary, when from opposite causes
the healthiness of any country or parish is extra-
‘ordinarily great ; if, from the habits of the people,
no vent for an overflowing population be found in
emigration, the absolute necessity of the preventive
check will be forced so strongly on their attention,
that they must adopt it or starve; and conse-
quently the marriages being very late, the num-
ber annually contracted will not only be small in
proportion to the population, but each individual
marriage will naturally be less prolific.

In the parish of Leyzin, noticed by M. Muret,
all these circumstances appear to have been com-
bined in an unusual degree. Its situation in the
Alps, but yet not too high, gave it probably the

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 845

most pure and salubrious air; and the employ-
ments of the people, being all pastoral, were con-
sequently of the most healthy nature. From the
calculations of M. Muret, the accuracy of which
there is no reason to doubt, the probability of life
in this parish appeared to be so extraordinarily
high as 61 years.* And the average number of
the births being for a period of 30 years almost.
accurately equal to the number of deaths,} clearly
proved that the habits of the people had not led
them to emigrate, and that the resources of the
parish for the support of population had remained
nearly stationary. We are warranted therefore
in concluding, that the pastures were limited, and
could not easily be increased either in quantity or
quality. The number of cattle, which could be
kept upon them, would of course be limited ; and
in the same manner the number of persons re-
quired for the care of these cattle.
_ Under such circumstances, how would it be
possible for the young men who had reached the
age of puberty, to leave their fathers’ houses and
marry, till an employment of herdsman, dairy-
man, or something of the kind, became vacant by
death? And as, from the extreme healthiness of
the people, this must happen very slowly, it is
evident that the majority of them must wait
during a great part of their youth in their bachelor
state, or run the most obvious risk of starving

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ, de Berne. Année 1766,
table v. p. 64.
+ Id. table i. p. 15,

346 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

themselves and their families. The case 1s still
stronger than in Norway, and receives a particu-
lar precision from the circumstance of the births
and deaths being so nearly equal.

If a father had unfortunately a larger family
than usual, the tendency of it would be rather to
decrease than increase the number of marriages.
He might perhaps with economy be just able to
support them all at home, though he could not
probably find adequate employment for them on
his small property; but it would evidently be
long before they could quit him, and the first
marriage among the sons would probably be after
the death of the father; whereas, if he had had
only two children, one of them might perhaps
have married without leaving the parental roof,
and the other on the death of the father. It may
be said perhaps in general, that the absence or
presence of four grown-up unmarried people will
make the difference of there being room or not,
for the establishment of another marriage and a
fresh family.

As the marriages in this parish would, with few
exceptions, be very late, and yet from the extreme
healthiness of the situation be very slowly dis-
solved by the death of either of the parties, it is
evident that a very large proportion of the sub-
sisting marriages would be among persons so far
advanced in life, that most of the women would
have ceased to bear children ; and in consequence
the whole number of subsisting marriages was
found to be to the number of annual births in the

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 347

very unusual proportion of 12 to 1. The births
were only about a 49th part of the population ;
and the number of persons above sixteen was to
the number below that age nearly as 3 to 1.*

As a contrast to this parish, and a proof how
little the number of births can be depended upon
for an estimate of population, M. Muret produces
the parish of St. Cergue in the Jura, in which the
subsisting marriages were to the annual births only
in the proportion of 4 to 1, the bitths were a 26th
part of the population, and the number of persons
above and below sixteen just equal.

Judging of the population of these parishes from
the proportion of their annual births, it would ap-
pear, he says, that Leyzin did not exceed St.
Cergue by above one-fifth at most ; whereas, from
actual enumeration, the population of the former
turned out to be 405, and of the latter only 171.

I have chosen, he observes, the parishes where
the contrast is the most striking; but though the
difference be not so remarkable in the rest, yet it
will always be found true that from one place to
another, even at very small distances, and in si-
tuations apparently similar, the proportions will
vary considerably.§

It is strange that, after making these observa-
tions, and others of the same tendency, which I

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ. de Berne. Année 1766,
p- 11 and 12.

+ Ibid.

t Id. p, Li.

§ Id. p. 13.

348 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

have not produced, he should rest the whole proof
of the depopulation of the Pays de Vaud on the
proportion of births. There is no good reason for
supposing that this proportion should not be dif-
ferent at different periods, as well as in different
situations. The extraordinary contrast in the fe-
cundity of the two parishes of Leyzin and St.
Cergue depends upon causes within the power of
time and circumstances to alter. From the gréat
proportion of infants which was found to grow up
to maturity in St. Cergue, it appeared that its na-
tural healthiness was not much inferior to that of
Leyzin.* The proportion of its births to deaths
was 7 to4;} but as the whole number of its inha-
bitants did not exceed 171, it is evident that this
great excess of births could not have been regu-
larly added to the population during the last two
centuries. It must have arisen therefore either
from a sudden increase of late years in the agri-
culture or trade of the parish, or from a habit of
emigration. ‘The latter supposition I conceive to
be the true one; and it seems to be confirmed by
the small proportion of adults which has already
been noticed. The parish is situated in the Jura,
by the side of the high road from Paris to Geneva,
a situation which would evidently tend to facili-
tate emigration; and in fact, it seems to have acted
the part of a breeding parish for the towns and flat
countries; and the annual drain of a certain por-

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ. de Berne. Année 1766,
table xiii. p. 120.
+ Id. table i. p. 11.

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 349

tion of the adults made room for all the rest to
marry, and to rear a numerous offspring.

A habit of emigration in a particylar parish, will
not only depend on situation, but probably often
on accident. I have little doubt that three or four
very successful emigrations have frequently given
a spirit of enterprise toa whole village ; and three
or four unsuccessful ones a contrary spirit. Ifa
habit of emigration were introduced into the vil-
lage of Leyzin, it is not to be doubted that the pro-
portion of births would be immediately changed ;
and at the end of twenty years an examination of
its registers might give results as different from
those at the time of M. Muret’s calculations, as
they were then from the contrasted parish of St.
Cergue. It will hence appear that other causes
besides a greater mortality will concur, to make
an estimate of population, at different periods,
from the proportion of births, liable to great un-
certainty.

The facts which M. Muret has collected are all
valuable, though his inferences cannot always be
considered in the same light. He made some
calculations at Vevay, of a nature really to aScer-
tain the question respecting the fecundity of mar-
riages, and to shew the incorrectness of the usual
mode of estimating it, though without this parti-
cular object in view at the time. He found that
375 mothers had yielded 2,093 children, all born
alive ; from which it followed, that each mother
had produced 512, or nearly six children.* These,

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ, de Berne. Année 1766,
p- 29, et seq.

350 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

however, were all actually mothers, which every
wife is not ; but allowing for the usual proportion
of barren wives at Vevay, which he had found to
be 20 out of 478, it will still appear that the mar-
ried women one with another produced above 5+
children.* And yet this was in a town, the inha-
bitants of which he seems to accuse of not enter-
ing into the marriage state at the period when na-
ture calls them, and, when married, of not having
all the children which they might have.t The ge-
neral proportion of the annual marriages to the
annual births in the Pays de Vaud is as 1 to 3°9,{
and of course, according to the common mode of
calculation, the marriages would appear to yield
3°9 children each.

In a division of the Pays de Vaud into eight
different districts, M. Muret found, that in seven
towns the mean life was 36 years; and the pro-
bability of life, or the age to which half of the
born live, 37. In 36 villages, the mean life was
37, and the probability oflife 42. In nine parishes
of the Alps the mean life was 40, and the proba-
bility of life 47. In seven parishes of the Jura
these two proportions were 38 and 42: in 12 corn
parishes, 37 and 40; in 18 parishes among the

* On account of second and third marriages, the fecundity of
marriages must always be less than the fecundity of married
women. ‘The mothers alone are here considered, without refer-
ence to the number of husbands.

+ Mémoires, &c. par la Société Econ. de Berne. Année 1766,
p. 32.

t Id, table i. p, 21.

Ch.-v. in Switzerland. 351

ereat vineyards, 34 and 37; in six parishes of
mixed vines and hills, 335%, and 36; and in one
marshy parish, 29 and 24.*

From another table it appears, that the number
of persons dying under the age of 15 was less
than + in the extraordinary parish of Leyzin; and
less than + in many other parishes of the Alps and
the Jura. For the whole of the Pays de Vaud it
was less than 1.7

In some of the largest towns, such as Lausanne
and Vevay, on account of the number of strangers
settling in them, the proportion of adults to those
under 16 was nearly as great as in the parish of
Leyzin, and not far from 3 to 1. In the parishes
from which there were not many emigrations, this
proportion was about 2 to 1. And in those which
furnished inhabitants for. other countries, it ap-
proached more towards an equality.

The whole population of the Pays de Vaud, M.
Muret estimated at 113,000, of which 76,000 were
adults. The proportion of adults therefore to those
under the age of sixteen, for the whole country,
was 2 to 1. Among these 76,000 adults, there
were 19,000 subsisting marriages, and conse-
quently 38,000 married persons; and the same
number of persons unmarried, though of the latter
number 9,000, according to M. Muret, would pro-

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société de Berne. Année 1766, table
viii. p. 92, et seq.

+ Id. table xiii. p. 120.

+ Id. table xii

352 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

bably be widows or widowers.* With such an
average store of unmarried persons, notwithstand-
ing the acknowledged emigrations, there was little
eround for the supposition that these emigrations
had essentially affected the number of annual
marriages, and checked the progress of popula-
tion.

The proportion of annual marriages to inhabi-.
tants in the Pays de Vaud, according to M. Muret’s
tables, was only 1 to 140,7 which is even less than
in Norway.

All these calculations of M. Muret imply the
operation of the preventive check to population in
a considerable degree, throughout the whole of
the district which he considered ; and there is
reason to believe, that the same habits prevail in
other parts of Switzerland, though varying con-
siderably from place to place, according as the
situation or the employments of the people render
them more or less healthy, or the resources of the
country make room or not for an increase.

In the town of Berne, from the year 1583 to
1654, the sovereign council had admitted into the
Bourgeoisie 487 families, of which 379 became
extinct in the space of two centuries, and in 1783
only 108 of them remained. During the hundred
years from 1684 to 1784, 207 Bernoise families
became extinct. From 1624 to 1712, the Bour-

* Mémoires, &c. par la Société de Berne. Année 1766, pre-
miere partie, p. 27. i
+ Id. premiere partie, tab. i.

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 358

geoisie was given to 80 families. In 1623, the
sovereign council united the members of 112 dif-
ferent families, of which 58 only remain.*

The proportion of unmarried persons in Berne,
including widows and widowers, is considerably
above the half of the adults; and the proportion
of those below sixteen to those above, is not far
from 1 to 3., These are strong proofs of the
powerful operation of the preventive check.

The peasants in the canton of Berne have al-
ways had the reputation of being rich, and with-
out doubt it is greatly to be attributed to this
cause. A law has for some time prevailed, which
makes it necessary for every peasant to prove
himself in possession of the arms and accoutre-
ments necessary for the militia, before he can
obtain permission to marry. This at once ex-
eludes the very poorest from marriage; and a
very favourable turn may be given to the habits
of many others, from a knowledge that they can-
not accomplish the object of their wishes, without -
a certain portion of industry and economy. A
young man who, with this end in view, had en-
gaged in service either at home or in a foreign
country, when he had gained the necessary sum,
might feel his pride rather raised, and not be
contented merely with what would obtain him

* Statistique de la Suisse, Durand, tom. iv. p. 405, 8vo. 4 vols.
Lausanne, 1796.

t Beschreibung von Bern, vol. ii, tab, i. p. 35, 2 vols, 8vo.
Bern. 1796.

VOL. I. A A

354 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

permission to marry, but go on till he could ob-
tain something like a provision for a family.

I was much disappointed, when in Switzerland,
at not being able to procure any details respecting
the smaller cantons; but the disturbed state of
the country made it impossible. It is to be pre-
sumed, however, that as they are almost entirely
in pasture, they must resemble in a great measure
the alpine parishes of the Pays de Vaud in the
extraordinary health of the people, and the abso-
lute necessity of the preventive check; except
where these circumstances may have been altered
by a more than usual habit of emigration, or by
the introduction of manufactures.*

The limits to the population of a country strictly
pastoral are strikingly obvious. There are no

* M. Prevost, of Geneva, in his translation of this work, gives
some account of the small Canton of Glavis, in which the cotton-
manufacture had been introduced. It appears that it had been
very prosperous at first, and had occasioned a habit of early mar-
riages, and a considerable increase of population; but subse-
quently wages became extremely low, and a fourth part of the
population was dependent upon charity for their support. The
proportions of the births and deaths to the population, instead of
being 1 to 36, and 1 to 45, as in the Pays de Vaud, had become
as 1 to 26, and 1 to 35. And, according to a later account in the
last translation, the proportion of the births to the population,
during the 14 years from 1805 to 1819, was as 1 to 24, and of the
deaths as 1 to 30.

These proportions shew the prevalence of early marriages, and
its natural consequences in such a situation, and under such circum-
stances—great. poverty and great mortality. M. Heer, who gave
M. Prevost the information, seems to have foreseen these conse-
quences early.

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 355

grounds less susceptible of improvement than
mountainous pastures. They must necessarily
be left chiefly to nature; and when they have
been adequately stocked with cattle, little more
can be done. The great difficulty in these parts
of Switzerland, as in Norway, is to procure a
sufficient quantity of fodder for the winter sup- ,
port of the cattle which have been fed on the
mountains in the summer. For this purpose grass
is collected with the greatest care. In places in-
accessible to cattle, the peasant sometimes makes
hay with crampons on his feet ; in some places
grass not three inches high is cut three times a
year; and in the valleys, the fields are seen shaven
as close as a bowling-green, and all the inequali-
ties clipped as with a pair of scissors. In Swit-
zerland as in Norway, for the same reasons, the
art of mowing seems to be carried to its highest
pitch of perfection. As, however, the improve-
ment of the lands in the valleys must depend
principally upon the manure arising from the
stock, it is evident that the quantity of hay and
the number of cattle will be mutually limited by
each other; and as the population will of course
be limited by the produce of the stock, it does
not seem possible to increase it beyond a certain
point, and that at no great distance. Though the
population, therefore, in the flat parts of Switzer-
land, has increased during the last century, there
is reason to believe that it has been stationary in
the mountainous parts. According to M. Muret
it has decreased very considerably in the Alps of
A A 2

356 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

the Pays de Vaud; but his proofs of this fact
have been noticed as extremely-uncertain. It is
not probable, that the Alps are less stocked with
cattle than they were formerly ; and if the inhabi-
tants be really rather fewer in number, it is pro-
bably owing to the smaller proportion of children,
and to the improvement which has taken place in
the mode of living.

In some of the smaller cantons, manufactures
have been introduced, which, by furnishing a
greater quantity of employment, and at the same
time a greater quantity of exports for the pur-
chase of corn, have of course considerably in-
creased their population. But the Swiss writers
seem generally to agree, that the districts where
they have been established, have upon the
whole suffered in point of health, morals and
happiness.

It is the nature of pasturage to produce food
for a much greater number of people than it can
employ. In countries strictly pastoral, therefore,
many persons will be idle, or at most be very
inadequately occupied. This state of things na-
turally disposes to emigration, and the principal
reason why the Swiss have been so much engaged
in foreign service. When a father has more than
one son, those who are not wanted on the farm
are powerfully tempted to enrol themselves as
soldiers, or to emigrate in some other way, as
the only chance of enabling them to marry.

It is possible, though not probable, that a more
than usual spirit of emigration, operating upon a

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 357

‘country, in which, as it has appeared, the preven-
tive check prevailed to a very considerable de-
eree, might have produced a temporary check to
increase at the period when there was such an
universal cry about depopulation. If this were
so, it without doubt contributed to improve the
condition of the lower classes of people. © All the
foreign travellers in Switzerland, soon after this
time, invariably take notice of the state of the
Swiss peasantry as superior to that of other coun-
tries. Ina late excursion to Switzerland, I was
rather disappointed not to find it so superior as |
had been taught to expect. The greatest part of
the unfavourable change might justly be attri-
buted to the losses and sufferings of the people
during the late troubles; but a part perhaps to
the ill-directed efforts of the different govern-
ments to increase the population, and to the ulti-
mate consequences even of efforts well directed,
and for a time calculated to advance the comforts
and happiness of the people.

I was very much struck with an effect of this
last kind, in an expedition to the Lac de Jouv in
the Jura. The party had scarcely arrived at a
little inn at the end of the lake, when the mistress
of the house began to complain of the poverty and
misery of all the parishes in the neighbourhood.
She said that the country produced little, and yet
was full of inhabitants; that boys and girls were
marrying who ought still to be at school; and
that, while this habit of early marriages conti-

358 Of the Checks to Population Bk: ii.

nued, they should always be wretched and dis-
tressed for subsistence.

The peasant, who afterwards conducted us to
the source of the Orbe, entered more fully into
the subject, and appeared to understand the
principle of population almost as well as any man
I ever met with. He said, that the women were
prolific, and the air of the mountains so pure and
healthy, that very few children died, except from
the consequences of absolute want; that the soil,
being barren, was inadequate to yield employ-
ment and food for the numbers that were yearly
growing up to manhood; that the wages of labour
were consequently very low, and totally insufhi-
cient for the decent support of a family ; but that
the misery and starving condition of the greater
part of the society did not operate properly as a
warning to others, who still continued to marry,
and to produce a numerous offspring which they
could not support. This habit of early marriages
might really, he said, be called /e vice du pays;
and he was so strongly impressed with the neces-
sary and unavoidable wretchedness that must
result from it, that he thought a law ought to be
made, restricting men from entering into the mar-
riage state before they were forty years of age,
and then allowing it only with “ des vierlles. filles,”
who might bear them two or three children in-
stead of six or eight.

I could not help being diverted with the earn-
estness of his oratory on this subject, and_parti-

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 359

cularly with his concluding proposition. He
must have seen and felt the misery arising from
a redundant population most forcibly, to have
proposed so violent a remedy. I found upon in-
quiry that he had himself married very young.

The only point in which he failed, as to his
philosophical knowledge of the subject, was in
confining his reasonings too much to barren and
mountainous countries, and not extending them
to the plains. In fertile situations, he thought,
perhaps, that the plenty of corn and employment
might remove the difficulty, and allow of early
marriages. Not having lived much in the plains,
it was natural for him to fall into this error ; par-
ticularly, as in such situations the difficulty is not
only more concealed from the extensiveness of
the subject; but is in reality less, from the greater
mortality naturally occasioned by low grounds,
towns, and manufactories.

On inquiring into the principal cause of what
he had named the predominant vice of his country,
he explained it with great philosophical precision.
He said, that a manufacture for the polishing of
stones had been established some years ago,
which for a time had been in a very thriving state,
and had furnished high wages and employment
to all the neighbourhood; that the facility of pro-
viding for a family, and of finding early employ-
ment for children, had greatly encouraged early
marriages; and that the same habit had- conti-
nued, when, from a change of fashion, accident,
and other causes, the manufacture was almost at

360 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

anend. Very great emigrations, he said, had of
late years taken place; but the breeding system
went on so fast, that they were not sufficient to
relieve the country of its superabundant mouths,
and the effect was such as he had described ato
me, and as I had in part seen.

In other conversations which I had with the
lower classes of people in different parts of Swit-
zerland and Savoy, I found many, who, though
not sufficiently skilled in the principle of popula-
tion to see its effects on society, like my friend
of the Lac de Jour, yet saw them clearly enough
as affecting their own individual interests; and
were perfectly aware of the evils which they
should probably bring upon themselves by mar-
rying before they could have a tolerable prospect
of being able to maintain a family. From the
general ideas which I have found to prevail on
these subjects, I should by no means say that it
would be a difficult task to make the common
people comprehend the principle of population,
and its effect in producing low wages and =
verty.

Though there is no absolute provision for the
poor in Switzerland, yet each parish generally
possesses some seignioral rights and property in
land for the public use, and is expected to main-
tain its own poor. These funds, however, being
limited, will of course often be totally insufficient;
and occasionally voluntary collections are made
for this purpose. But the whole of the supply
being comparatively scanty and uncertain, it has

Ch. v. in Switzerland. 361

not the same bad effects as the parish-rates of
England. Of late years much of the common
lands belonging to parishes have been parcelled
out to individuals, which has of course tended to
improve the soil, and increase the number of peo-
ple; but from the manner in which it has been
conducted, it has operated perhaps too much as
a systematic encouragement of marriage, and has
contributed to mcerease the number of poor. In
the neighbourhood of the richest communes, I
often observed the greatest number of beggars.

There is reason to believe, however, that the
efforts of the Economical Society of Berne to
promote agriculture were crowned with some
success ; and that the increasing resources of the
country have made room for an additional popu-
lation, and furnished an adequate support for the
greatest part, if not the whole, of that increase
which has of late taken place.

In 1764 the population of the whole canton of
Berne, including the Pays de Vaud, was esti-
mated at 336,689. In 1791, it had increased to
414,420. From 1764 to 1777, its increase pro-
ceeded at the rate of 2,000 each year; and, from
1778 to 1791, at the rate of 3,109 each year.* —

* Beschreibung von Bern, vol. ii. p. 40.

( 362 )

CHAP. VI.
Of the Checks to Population in France.

As the parochial registers in France, before the
revolution, were not kept with particular care,
nor for any great length of time, and as the few
which have been produced exhibit no very extra-
ordinary results, I should not have made this
country the subject of a distinct chapter, but for
a circumstance attending the revolution, which
has excited considerable surprise. This is, the
undiminished state of the population in spite of
the losses sustained during so long and destruc-
tive a contest.*

A great national work, founded on the reports
of the prefects in the different departments, is at
present in some state of forwardness at Paris, and
when completed may reasonably be expected to
form a very valuable accession to the materials of
statistical science in general. The returns of all
the prefects are not however yet complete; but [
was positively assured by the person who has the
principal superintendence of them, that enough
is already known to be certain that the popula-
tion of the old territory of France has rather in-
creased than diminished during the revolution.

* This chapter was written in 1802, and refers to the state of
France before the peace of Amiens.

ia)

Ch. vi. Checks to Population in France. 36

Such an event, if true, very strongly confirms
the general principles of this work ; and assuming
it for the present as a fact, it may tend to throw
some light on the subject, to trace a little in de-
tail the manner in which such an event might
happen.

In every country there is always a considerable
body of unmarried persons, formed by the gradual
accumulation of the excess of the number rising
annually to the age of puberty above the number
of persons annually married. The stop to the
further accumulation of this body is when its
number is such, that the yearly mortality equals
the yearly accessions that are made toit. In the
Pays de Vaud, as appeared in the last chapter,
this body, including widows and widowers, per-
sons who are not actually in the state of marriage,
equals the whole number of married persons.
But in a country like France, where both the
mortality and the tendency to marriage are much
greater than in Switzerland, this body does not
bear so large a proportion to the population.

According to a calculation in an Lssai dune
Statistique Générale, published at Paris in 1800,
by M. Peuchet, the number of unmarried males
in France between 18 and 50 is estimated at
1,451,063; and the number of males, whether
married or not, between the same ages, at
5,000,000.* It does not appear at what period

* P. 32, 8vo. 78 pages.

364 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

exactly this calculation was made; but as the
author uses the expression en tems ordinaire, it 1s
probable that he refers to the period before the
revolution. Let us suppose, then, that this num-
ber of 1,451,063 expresses the collective body of
unmarried males of a military age at the com-
mencement of the revolution.

The population of France before the beginning
of the war was estimated by the Constituent As-
sembly at 26,363,074 ;* and there is no reason to °
believe that this calculation was too high. Necker,
though he mentions the number of 24,800,000, ex-
presses his firm belief that the yearly births at
that time amounted to above a million, and con-
sequently, according to his multiplier of 253, the
whole population was nearly 26 millions; and
this calculation was made ten years previous to
the estimate of the Constituent Assembly.

Taking then the annual births at rather above
a million, and estimating that rather above £
would die under 18, which appears to be the case
from some calculations of M. Peuchet,f it will
follow, that above 600,000 persons will annually
arrive at the age of 18.

The annual marriages, according to Necker, are
213,774;§ but as this number is an average of

* A. Young’s Travels in France, vol. i. c. xvii. p. 466, 4to. 1792.

+ De l’Administration des Finances, tom. i. c. ix. p. 256, 12mo.
1785.

t Essai, p. 31].

§ De l’ Administration des Finances, tom, i. c, ix. p. 255.

Ch. vi. in France. 365

ten years, taken while the population was in-
creasing, it is probably too low. If we take
220,000, then 440,000 persons will be supposed
to marry out of the 600,000 rising to a marriageable
age; and, consequently, the excess of those rising
to the age of 18 above the number wanted to
complete the usual proportion of annual marriages,
will be 160,000, or 80,000 males. It is evident,
therefore, that the accumulated body of 1,451,063
unmarried males, of a military age, and the annual
supply of 80,000 youths of 18, might be taken for
the service of the state, without affecting in any
degree the number of annual marriages. But we
cannot suppose that the 1,451,063 should be
taken all at once; and many soldiers are married,
and in a situation not to be entirely useless to the
population. Let us suppose 600,000 of the corps
of unmarried males to be embodied at once; and
this number to be kept up by the annual supply
of 150,000 persons, taken partly from the 80,000,
rising annually to the age of 18, and not wanted
to complete the number of annual marriages, and
partly from the 851,063 remaining of the body of
unmarried males, which existed at the beginning
of the war: it is evident, that from these two
sources 150,000 might be supplied each year,
for ten years, and yet allow of an increase in
the usual number of annual marriages of above
10,000.

It is true that in the course of the ten years
many of the original body of unmarried males will

366 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

have passed the military age; but this will be
balanced, and indeed much more than balanced,
by their utility in the married life. From the
beginning it should be taken into consideration,
that though a man of fifty be generally considered
as past the military age, yet, if he marry a fruit-
ful subject, he may by no means be useless to the
population; and in fact the supply of 150,000
recruits each year would be taken principally
from the 300,000 males rising annually to 18; and
the annual marriages would be supplied in a great
measure from the remaining part of the original
body of unmarried persons. Widowers and ba-
chelors of forty and fifty, who in the common
state of things might have found it difficult to
obtain an agreeable partner, would probably see
these difficulties removed in such a scarcity of
husbands; and the absence of 600,000 persons
would of course make room for a very considera-
ble addition to the number of annual marriages.
This addition in all probability took place. Many
among the remaining part of the original body of
bachelors, who might otherwise have continued
single, would marry under this change of circum-
stances; and it is known that a very considerable
portion of youths under 18, in order to avoid the
military conscriptions, entered prematurely into
the married state. This was so much the case, and
contributed so much to diminish the number of
unmarried persons, that in the beginning of the
year 1798 it was found necessary to repeal the

Ch. vi. in France. 367

law, which had exempted married persons from
conscriptions; and those who married subse-
quently to this new regulation were taken indis-
criminately with the unmarried. And though
after this the levies fell in part upon those who
were actually engaged in the peopling of the
country; yet the number of marriages untouched
by these levies might still remain greater than the
usual number of marriages before the revolution;
and the marriages which were broken by the
removal of the husband to the armies would not
probably have been entirely barren.

Sir Francis d’Ivernois, who had certainly a
tendency to exaggerate, and probably has exag-
gerated considerably, the losses of the French
nation, estimates the total loss of the troops of
France, both by land and sea, up to the year 1799,
at a million and a half.* The round numbers
which I have allowed for the sake of illustrating
the subject, exceed Sir Francis dIvernois’s esti-

* Tableau des Pertes, &c. c. ii. p. 7.—M. Garnier, in the
notes to his edition of Adam Smith, calculates that only about a
sixtieth part of the French population was destroyed in the armies.
He supposes only 500,000 embodied at once, and that this num-
ber was supplied by 400,000 more in the course of the war; and
allowing for the number which would die naturally, that the
additional mortality occasioned by the war was only about 45,000
each year. ‘Yom. v. note xxx. p. 284. If the actual loss were no
more than these statements make it, a small increase of births would
have easily repaired it; but I should think that these estimates
are probably as much below the truth, as Sir Francis d’L[vernois’s
are above,

368 - Of ihe Checks to Population Bk. i.

mate by six hundred thousand. He calculates
however a loss of a million of persons more, from
the other causes of destruction attendant on the
revolution; but as this loss fell indiscriminately
on all ages and both sexes, it would not affect the
population in the same degree, and will be much
more than covered by the 600,000 men in the full
vigour of life, which remain above Sir Francis’s
calculation. It should be observed also, that in
the latter part of the revolutionary war the mili-
tary conscriptions were probably enforced with
still more severity in the newly-acquired territo-
ries than in the old state; and as the population
of these new acquisitions is estimated at five or six
millions, it would bear a considerable proportion
of the million and a half supposed to be destroyed
in the armies.

The law which facilitated divorces to so
great a degree in the early part of the revolution
was radically bad both in a moral and political
view, yet, under the circumstance of a great
scarcity of men, it would operate a little like
the custom of polygamy, and increase the num-
ber of children in proportion to the number of
husbands. In addition to this, the women with-
out husbands do not appear all to have been
barren; as the proportion of illegitimate births is
now raised to 54, of the whole number of births,
from -2.,* which it was before the revolution; and
though this be a melancholy proof of the depra-

* Essai de Peuchet, p. 28.

Ch. vi. in France. 369

vation of morals, yet it would certainly contribute
to increase the number of births ; andas the female
peasants in France were enabled to earn more than
usual during the revolution, on account of the
scarcity of hands, it is probable that a consider-
able portion of these children would survive.
Under all these circumstances, it cannot appear
impossible, and scarcely even improbable, that
the population of France should remain undimi-
nished, in spite of all the causes of destruction
which have operated upon it during the course of
the revolution, provided the agriculture of the
country has been such as to continue the means
of subsistence unimpaired. And it seems now to
be generally acknowledged that, however severely
the manufactures of France may have suffered, her
agriculture has rather increased than diminished.
At no period of the war can we suppose that the
number of embodied troops exceeded the number
of men employed before the revolution in manu-
factures. Those who were thrown out of work
by the destruction of these manufactures, and
who did not go to the armies, would of course
betake themselves to the labours of agriculture ;
and it was always the custom in France for the
women to work much in the fields, which custom
was probably increased during the revolution.
At the same time, the absence of a large portion
of the best and most vigorous hands would raise
the price of labour; and as, from the new land
brought into cultivation, and the absence of a con-
VOL. 1. BB

370 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

siderable part of the greatest consumers* in fo-
‘reign countries, the price of provisions would not
rise in proportion, this advance in the real price
of labour would not only operate as a powerful
encouragement to marriage, but would enable the
peasants to live better, and to rear a greater
number of their children.

At.all times the number of small farmers and
proprietors in France was great; and though such
a state of things is by no means favourable to the
clear surplus produce or disposable wealth of a
nation; yet sometimes it is not unfavourable to
the absolute produce, and it has always a strong
tendency to encourage population. From the sale
and division of many of the large domains of the
nobles and clergy, the number of landed proprie-
tors. has considerably increased during the revo-
lution; and as a part of these domains consisted
of parks and chases, new territory has been given
to the plough. It is true that the land-tax has
been not only too heavy, but injudiciously im-
posed. It is probable, however, that this disad-
vantage has been nearly counterbalanced by the
removal of the former oppressions, under which
the cultivator laboured ; and that the sale and
division of the great domains may be considered
as a clear advantage on the side of agriculture, or

* Supposing the increased number of children at any period to
equal the number of men absent in the armies, yet these children,
being all very young, could not be supposed to consume a quantity

equal to that which would be consumed by the same number of
grown-up persons.

Ch.7vi. in France. 371
4

at any rate of the gross produce, which is the prin-
cipal point with regard to mere population.

These considerations make it appear probable
that the means of subsistence have at least re-
mained unimpaired, if they have not increased,
during the revolution ; and a view of the cultiva-
tion of France in its present state certainly rather
tends to confirm this supposition.

We shall not therefore be inclined to agree with
Sir Francis dIvernois in his conjecture that the
annual births in France have diminished by one-
seventh during the revolution.* On the contrary,
it is more probable that they have increased by
this number. The average proportion of births
to the population in all France, before the revo-
lution, was, according to Necker, as.1 to 253.7
It has appeared in the reports of some of the
prefects which have been returned, that the pro-
portion in many country places was raised to 1 to
21, 22, 221, and 23;{ and though these proportions
might, in some degree, be caused by the absence
of a part of the population in the armies, yet I
have little doubt that they are principally to be
attributed to the birth of a greater number of
children than usual. If, when the reports of all the
prefects are put together, it should appear, that
the number of births has not increased in propor-
tion to the population, and yet that the population

* Tableau des Pertes, &c. c. ii. p. 14.
+ De l’Administration des Finances, tom. i. ¢. ix. p. 254.
+ Essai de Peuchet, p. 28.

BB2

372 Of the Checks to Population Bk. il.

is undiminished ; it will follow, either that Neck-
er’s multiplier for the births was too small, which
is extremely probable, as from this cause he
appears to have calculated the population too
low; or that the mortality among those not ex-
posed to violent deaths has been less than usual ;
which, from the high price of labour and the
desertion of the towns for the country, is not
unlikely.

According to Necker and Moheau, the mortality
in France, before the revolution, was 1 in 30 or
314.* Considering that the proportion of the
population which lives in the country is to that
in the towns as 34 to 1,f this mortality is extra-
ordinarily great, caused probably by the misery
arising from an excess of population; and from
the remarks of Arthur Young on the state of the
peasantry in France,} which are completely sanc-
tioned by Necker,{ this appears to have been
really the case. If we suppose that, from the
removal of a part of this redundant population,
the mortality has decreased from 1 in 30 to ] in
35, this favourable change would go a consider-
able way in repairing the breaches made byte war
on the frontiers.

The probability is, that both the causes men-

* De l’Administration des Finances, tom. i. c. ix, p. 255.
Essai de Peuchet, p. 29.
a Young’s Travels in France, vol. i. c. xvii. p. 466.
t See generally c. xvii. vol.i. and the just observations on these
subjels interspersed in many other parts of his very valuable Tour.
§ De !’Administration des Finances, tom. i. c. ix. p. 262, et seq.

Ch. vi. in France. 373

tioned have operated in part. The births have
increased, and the deaths of those remaining in
the country have diminished ; so that, putting the
two circumstances together, it will probably ap-
pear, when the results of all the reports of the pre-
fects are known, that, including those who have
fallen in the armies and by violent means, the
deaths have not exceeded the births in the course
of the revolution.

The returns of the prefects are to be given for
the year IX. of the republic, and to be compared
with the year 1789; but if the proportion of
births to the population be given merely for the
individual year IX. it will not shew the average
proportion of births to the population during
the course of the revolution. In the confusion
occasioned by this event, it is not probable that
any very exact registers should have been kept;
but from theory I should be inclined to expect
that soon after the beginning of the war, and at
other periods during the course of it, the propor-
tion of births to the whole population would be
greater than in 1800 and 1801.* If it should

* In the Statistique Générale et Particuliére de la France, et de
ses Colonies, lately published, the returns of the prefects for the
year IX. are given, and seem to justify this conjecture. The
births are 955,430, the deaths 821,871, and the marriages 202,177.
These numbers hardly equal Necker’s estimates; and yet all the
calculations in this work, both with respect to the whole popula-
tion and its proportion to a square league, make the old territory
of France more populous now than at the beginning of the revo-
lution. The estimate of the population, at the period of the Con-
stituent Assembly, has already been mentioned ; and at this time

374 Of the Checks to Population Bk. it.

appear by the returns, that the number of annual
marriages has not increased during the revolution,

the number of persons to a square league was reckoned 996. In
the year VI. of the republic, the result of the Bureau de Cadastre
gave a population of 26,048,254, and the number to a square
league 1,020. In the year VII. Dépére calculated the whole po-
pulation of France at 33,501,094, of which 28,810,694 belonged
to ancient France; the number to a square league 1,101; but
the calculations, it appears, were founded upon the first estimate
made by the Constituent Assembly, which was afterwards rejected
as too high. In the year IX. and X. the addition of Piedmont
and the isle of Elba raised the whole population to 34,376,313 ;
the number to a square league 1,086. The number belonging to
Old France is not stated. It seems to have been about 28,000,000.

In the face of these calculations, the author takes a lower multi-
plier than Necker for the births, observing that though Necker’s
proportions remained true in the towns, yet in the country the pro-
portion of births had increased to z4, 4g, gy 3, as, which he at-
tributes to the premature marriages, to avoid the military levies ;
and on the whole, concludes with mentioning 25 as the proper
multiplier. And yet, if we make use of this multiplier, we shall
get a population under 25 millions, instead of 28 millions. It is
true, indeed, that no just inferences can be drawn from the births
of a single year ; but, as these are the only births referred to, the
contradiction is obvious. Perhaps the future returns may solve the
difficulty, and the births in the following years be greater ; but I
am inclined to think, as I have mentioned in the text, that the
greatest increase in the proportion of births was before the year
IX. and probably during the first six or seven years of the republic,
while married persons were exempt from the military conscriptions.
If the state of the agricultural part of the nation has been im-
proved by the revolution, I am strongly inclined to believe that the
proportions both of births and deaths will be found to diminish.
In so fine a climate as France, nothing but the very great misery
of the lower classes could occasion a mortality of 3/,, and a pro-
portion of births as = 3, according to Necker’s calculations. And
consequently, upon this supposition, the births for the year IX.

Ch. vi. in France. 375

the circumstance will be obviously accounted for
by the extraordinary increase in the illegitimate
births mentioned before in this chapter, which
amount at present to one-eleventh of all the births,
instead of one-forty-seventh, according to the cal-
culation of Necker before the revolution.*

may not be incorrect, and in future, the births and deaths may not
bear so large a proportion to the population. ‘The contrast between
France and England in this respect is quite wonderful.

The part of this work relating to population is not drawn up with
much knowledge of the subject. One remark is very curious. It
is observed that the proportion of marriages to the population is as
1] to 110, and of births as 1 to 25; from which it is inferred, that
one-fourth of the born live to marry. If this inference were just,
France would soon be depopulated.

In calculating the value of lives, the author makes use of Buf-
fon’s tables, which are entirely incorrect, being founded princi-
pally on registers taken from the villages round Paris. They make
the probability of life at birth only a little above eight years ;
which, taking the towns and the country together, is very short of
the just average.

Scarcely any thing worth noticing has been added in this work
to the details given in the Essay of Peuchet, which I have already
frequently referred to. On the whole I have not seen sufficient
grounds to make me alter any of my conjectures in this chapter,
though probably they are not well-founded. Indeed, in adopting
Sir F. @Ivernois’ calculations respecting the actual loss of men
during the revolution, I never thought myself borne out by facts ;
but the reader will be aware that I adopted them rather for the
sake of illustration than from supposing them strictly true.

* Essai de Peuchet, p. 28. It is highly probable that this in-
crease of illegitimate births occasioned a more than usual number
of children to be exposed in those dreadful receptacles, les Hépitaux
des Enfans trouvés, as noticed by Sir Francis d’Ivernois ; but pro-
bably this cruel custom was confined to particular districts, and
the number exposed, upon the whole, might bear no great propor-
tion to the sum of all the births.

cé

376 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

Sir Francis d’Ivernois observes, ‘* that those
have yet to learn the first principles of political
arithmetic, who imagine that it is in the field of
battle and the hospitals that an account can be
taken of the lives which a revolution or a war
has cost. The number of men it has killed is of
much less importance than the number of chil-
dren which it has prevented, and will still pre-
vent, from coming into the world. This is the
deepest wound which the population of France
has received.”—‘‘ Supposing,” he says, ‘ that,
of the whole number of men destroyed, only
two millions had been united to as many fe-
males: according to the calculation of Buffon,
these two millions of couples ought to bring into
the world twelve millions of children, in order
to supply, at the age of thirty-nine, a number
equal to that of their parents. This is a point
of view, in which the consequences of such a
destruction of men become almost incalculable ;
because they have much more effect with re-
gard to the twelve millions of children, which
they prevent from coming into existence, than
with regard to the actual loss of the two millions
and a half of men for whom France mourns. It
is not till a future period that she will be able

“‘ to estimate this dreadful breach.’*

And yet, if the foregoing reasonings are well-

founded, France may not have lost a single birth
by the revolution. She has the most just reason

* Tableau des Pertes, &c. c. ii. p. 13, 14.

Ch. vi. in France. 377

to mourn the two millions and a half of individuals
which she may have lost, but not their posterity;
because, if these individuals had remained in the
country, a proportionate number of children, born
of other parents, which are now living in France,
would not have come into existence. If, in the
best governed country in Europe, we were to
mourn the posterity which is prevented from
coming into being, we should always wear the
habit of grief.

It is evident that the constant tendency of the
births in every country to supply the vacancies
made by death, cannot, in a moral point of view,
afford the slightest shadow of excuse for the wanton
sacrifice of men. The positive evil that is com-
mitted in this case, the pain, misery, and wide-
spreading desolation and sorrow, that are occa-
sioned to the existing inhabitants, can by no
means be counterbalanced by the consideration,
that the numerical breach in the population will
be rapidly repaired. We can have no other right,
moral or political, except that of the most urgent
necessity, to exchange the lives of beings in the
full vigour of their enjoyments, for an equal num-
ber of helpless infants.

It should also be remarked that, though the nu-
merical population of France may not have suf-
fered by the revolution, yet, if her losses have
been in any degree equal to the conjectures on
the subject, her military strength cannot be unim-
paired. Her population at present must consist
of a much greater proportion than usual of women

378 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

and children; and the body of unmarried persons,
of a military age, must be diminished in a very
striking manner. This indeed is known to be the
case, from the returns of the prefects which have
already been received.

It has appeared that the point at which the
drains of men will begin essentially to affect the
population of a country is, when the original body
of unmarried persons is exhausted, and the annual
demands are greater than the excess of the num-
ber of males, rising annually to the age of puberty,
above the number wanted to complete the usual
proportion of annual marriages. France was pro-
bably at some distance from this point at the con-
clusion of the war; but in the present state of her
population, with an increased proportion of women
and children, and a great diminution of males ofa
military age, she could not make the same gigantic
exertions, which were made at one period, with-
out trenching on the sources of her population.

At all times the number of males of a military
age in France was small in proportion to the po-
pulation, on account of the tendency to marriage,*
and the great number of children. Necker takes
particular notice of this circumstance. He ob-
serves, that the effect of the very great misery
of the peasantry is to produce a dreadful mor-
tality of infants under three or four years of age;
and the consequence is, that the number of young

* The proportion of marriages to the population in France, ac-
cording to Necker, is 1 to 113, tom. i. ¢. ix, p) 235.

Ch. vi. in France. 379

children will always be in too great a proportion
to the number of grown-up people. A million of
individuals, he justly observes, will in this case
neither present the same military force nor the
same capacity of labour, as an equal number of
individuals in a country where the people are less
miserable.*

Switzerland, before the revolution, could have
brought into the field, or have employed in labour
appropriate to grown-up persons, a much greater
proportion of her population than France at the
same period.f

* De l’Administration des Finances, tom. i. c. ix. p. 263.

+ Since I wrote this chapter, I have had an opportunity of see-
ing the Analyse des Proces Verbaux des Conseils Généraux de Dé-
partement, which gives a very particular and highly curious ac-
count of the internal state of France for the year VIII. With
respect to the population, out of 69 departments, the reports from
which are given, in 16 the population is supposed to be increased ;
in 42 diminished ; in 9 stationary; and in 2 the active population
is said to be diminished, but the numerical toremain the same. It
appears, however, that most of these reports are not founded on
actual enumerations ; and without such positive data, the prevail-
ing opinions on the subject of population, together with the ne-
cessary and universally acknowledged fact of a very considerable
diminution in the males of a military age, would naturally dis-
pose people to think that the numbers upon the whole must be
diminished. Judging merely from appearances, the substitution
of a hundred children for a hundred grown-up persons would cer=
tainly not produce the same impression with regard to population.
I should not be surprised, therefore, if, when the enumerations for
the year IX. are completed, it should appear that the population
upon the whole has not diminished. In some of the reports /’ai-
sance générale répandue sur le peuple, aud la division des grands pro-
priétés, ave mentioned as the causes of increase ; and almost uni-

380 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

For the state of population in Spain, I refer the
reader to the valuable and entertaining travels of
Mr. Townsend in that country, in which he will

versally, les mariages prématurés, and les mariages multiphés par la
crainte des lotx militaires, are particularly noticed.

With respect to the state of agriculture, out of 78 reports, 6 are
of opinion that it is improved ; 10, that it isdeteriorated ; 70 de-
mand that it should be encouraged in general ; 32 complain de /a
multiplicité des défrichemens ; and 12 demand des encouragemens
pour les défrichemens. One of the reports mentions, la quantité pro-
digicuse de terres cagues mise en culture depuis quelque tems, et les
tracaux multipliés, au dela de ce que peuvent exécuter les bras em-
ployés en agriculture; and others speak of les défrichemens multi-
pliés qui ont eu leu depuis plusieurs années, which appeared to be
successful at first ; but it was soon perceived that it would be more
profitable to cultivate less, and cultivate well. Many of the reports
notice the cheapness of corn, and the want of sufficient vent for
this commodity ; and in the discussion of the question respecting
the division of the biens communauz, it is observed, that, “le par-
* tage, en opérant le défrichement de ces biens, a sans doute pro-
“* duit une augmentation réelle de denrées, mais d'un autre cété,
“les vaines patures n’existent plus, et les bestiaux sont peut-étre
“«< diminués.’” On the whole therefore I should be inclined to infer
that, though the agriculture of the country does not appear to have
been conducted judiciously so as to obtain a large neat produce,
yet the gross produce had by no means been diminished during the
revolution ; and that the attempt to bring so much new land under
cultivation had contributed to make the scarcity of labourers still
more sensible. And if it be allowed that the food of the country
did not decrease during the revolution, the high price of labour,
which is very generally noticed, must have operated as a most
powerful encouragement to population among the labouring part
of the society.

The land-tax, or contribution fonciere, is universally complained
of ; indeed it appears to be extremely heavy, and to fall very un-
equally. It was intended to be only a fifth of the neat produce ;
but, from the unimproved state of agriculture in general, the num-

Ch. vi. in France. 381

often find the principle of population very happily
illustrated. I should have made it the subject of
a distinct chapter, but was fearful of extending

ber of small proprietors, and particularly the attempt to cultivate
too much surface in proportion to the capital employed, it often
amounts to a fourth, a third, or even a half. When property is so
much divided that the rent and profit of a farm must be combined,
in order to support a family upon it, a land-tax must necessarily
greatly impede cultivation ; though it has little or no effect of this
kind when farms are large, and let out to tenants, as is most fre-
quently the case in England. Among the impediments to agricul-
ture mentioned in the reports, the too great division of lands from
the new laws of succession is noticed. The partition of some of
the great domains would probably contribute to the improvement
of agriculture ; but subdivisions of the nature here alluded to
would certainly have a contrary effect, and would tend most parti-
cularly to diminish neat produce, and make a land-tax both op-
pressive and unproductive. If all the land in England were divided
into farms of 20/. a-year, we should probably be more populous
than we are at present; but as a nation we shculd be extremely
poor, and should be under a total inability of maintaining the
same number of manufactures or collecting the same taxes as at
present. Ail the departments demand a diminution of the con-
tribution fonciére as absolutely necessary to the prosperity of agri-
culture.

Of the state of the hospitals and charitable establishments, of
the prevalence of beggary and the mortality among the exposed
children, a most deplorable picture is drawn in almost all the re-
ports; from which we should at first be disposed to infer a greater
degree of poverty and misery among all the lower classes of people
in general. It appears, however, that the hospitals and charitable
establishments lost almost the whole of their revenues during the
revolution ; and this sudden subtraction of support from a great
number of people who had no other reliance, together with the
known failure of manufactures in the towns, and the very great
increase of illegitimate children, might produce all the distressing
appearances described in the reports, without impeaching the great

382 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

this part of the work too much, and of falling al-
most unavoidably into too many repetitions, from ~
the necessity of drawing the same kind of infer-

fact of the meliorated condition of agricultural labourers in gene-
ral, necessarily arising from the acknowledged high price of labour
and comparative cheapness of corn; and it is from this part of the
society that the effective population of a country is principally sup-
plied. If the poor’s rates of England were suddenly abolished,
there would undoubtedly be the most complicated distress among
those who were before supported by them; but I should not ex-
pect that either the condition of the labouring part of the society
in general, or the population of the country, would suffer from it.
As the proportion of illegitimate children in France has risen so
extraordinarily as from J, of all the births to +4,, it is evident that
more might be abandoned in hospitals, and more out of these die
than usual, and yet a more than usual number be reared at home,
and escape the mortality of those dreadful receptacles. It appears
that from the low state of the funds in the hospitals the proper
nurses could not be paid, and numbers of children died from abso-
lute famine. Some of the hospitals at last very properly refused
to receive any more.

The reports, upon the whole, do not present a favourable picture
of the internal state of France ; but something is undoubtedly to
be attributed to the nature of these reports, which, consisting as
they do of observations explaining the state of the different depart-
ments, and of particular demands, witha view to obtain assistance
or relief from government, it is to be expected that they should
lean rather to the unfavourable side. When the question is respect-
ing the imposition of new taxes, or the relief from old ones, people
will generally complain of their poverty. On the subject of taxes,
indeed, it would appear, as if the French government must be a
little puzzled. For though it very properly recommended to the
Conseils généraux not to indulge in vague complaints, but to men-
tion specific grievances, and propose specific remedies, and parti-
cularly not to advise the abolition of one tax without suggesting
another ; yet all the taxes appear to me to be reprobated, and most
frequently in general terms, without the proposal of any substitute.

Ch. vi. in France. 383

ence from so many different countries. I could
expect, besides, to add very little to what has
been so well done by Mr. Townsend.

La contribution fonciére, la taxe mobiliaire, les barriéres, les droits de
douane, all excite bitter complaints; and the only new substitute
that struck me was a tax upon game, which, being at present al-
most extinct in France, cannot be expected to yield a revenue suf-
ficient to balance all the rest. The work, upon the whole, is ex-
tremely curious ; and as shewing the wish of the government to
know the state of each department, and to listen to every obser-
vation and proposal for its improvement, is highly creditable to the
ruling power. It was published for a short time ; but the circu-
lation of it was soon stopped and confined to the ministers, les con-
seils généraux, &c. Indeed the documents are evidently more of a
private than of a public nature, and certainly have not the air of
being intended for general circulation.

( 384)

CHAP. VII.

Of the Checks to Population in France (continued. )

I uave not thought it advisable to alter the
conjectural calculations and suppositions of the
preceding chapter, on account of the returns
of the prefects for the year IX., as well as
some returns published since by the government
in 1813, having given a smaller proportion of
births than I had thought probable; first, because
these returns do not contain the early years of the
revolution, when the encouragement to marriage
and the proportion of births might be expected to
be the greatest; and secondly, because they still
seem fully to establish the main fact, which it was
the object of the chapter to account for, namely,
the undiminished population of France, notwith-
standing the losses sustained during the revolu-
tion; although it may have’ been effected rather
by a decreased proportion of deaths than an in-
creased proportion of births.

According to the returns of the year IX., the
proportions of the births, deaths, and marriages,

to the whole population, are as follows: —
Births. Deaths. Marriages.
1 in 33 1 in 382 1 in 157.*

* See a valuable note of M. Prevost of Geneva to his transla-
tion of this work, vol. ii. p. 88. M. Prevost thinks it probable that

Ch, vii. Of the Checks to Population, §c. 385

But these are in fact only the proportions of
one year, from which no certain inference can be
drawn. They are also applied to a population
between three and four millions greater than was
contained in ancient France, which population
may have always had a smaller proportion ‘of
births, deaths, and marriages; and further, it
appears highly probable from some of the state-
ments in the Analyse des Proces Verbaux, that the
registers had not been very carefully kept. Under
these circumstances, they cannot be considered
as proving what the numbers imply.

In the year XI., according to the Statistique
Klémentaire by Peuchet, published subsequently
to his Essai, an inquiry was instituted under the
orders of M. Chaptal for the express purpose of
ascertaining the average proportion of births to
the population ;* and such an iquiry, so soon
after the returns of the year [X., affords a clear
proof that these returns were not considered by
the minister as correct. In order to accomplish
the object in view, choice was made of those
communes in 30 departments distributed over the
whole surface of France, which were likely to

there are omissions in the returns of the births, deaths, and mar-
riages, for the year IX. He further shews that the proportion ‘of
the population to the square league for Old France should be 1014,
and not 1086. But if there is reason to believe that there are
omissions in the registers, and that the population is made too
great, the real proportions will be essentially different from those
which are here given.

_ * P. 331. Paris, 1805.

VOL. I. CC

386 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

afford the most accurate returns. And these
returns for the year VIII., IX., and X., gave a
proportion of births as 1 in 28.35; of deaths, as
1 in 30.09; and of marriages, as 1 in 132.078.

It is observed by M. Peuchet that the propor-
tion of population to the births is here much
greater than had been formerly assumed, but he
thinks that, as this calculation had been made
from actual enumerations, it should be adopted
in preference.

The returns published by the government in
1813 make the population of ancient France
28,786,911, which, compared with 28,000,000,
the estimated population of the year IX., shew
an increase of about 800,000 in the 11 years, from
1802 to 1813.

No returns of marriages are given, and the re-
turns of births and deaths are given only for fifty
departments.

In these fifty departments, during the ten
years beginning with 1802 and ending with 1811,
the whole number of births amounted to 5,478,669,
and of deaths to 4,696,857, which, on a population
of 16,710,719, indicates a proportion of births, as
1 in 304, and of deaths as 1 in 354.

It is natural to suppose that these fifty depart-
ments were chosen on account of their shewing
the greatest increase. They contain indeed
nearly the whole increase that had taken place in
all the departments from the time of the enumera-
tion in the year IX.; and consequently the popula-
tion of the other departments must have been almost

Ch. vii. in France (continued). 387

stationary. It may further be reasonably con-
jectured that the returns of marriages were not
published on account of their being considered as
unsatisfactory, and shewing a diminution of mar-
riages, and an increased proportion of illegitimate
births.

From these returns, and the circumstances
accompanying them, it may be concluded, that
whatever might have been the real proportion of
births before the revolution, and for six or seven
subsequent years, when the mariages prématurés
are alluded to in the Procés Verbaux, and pro-
portions of births as 1 in 21, 22, and 23, are men-
tioned in the Statistique Générale, the proportions
of births, deaths, and marriages, are now all con-
siderably less than they were formerly supposed
to be.*

It has been asked, whether, if this fact be al-
lowed, it does not clearly follow that the popula-
tion was incorrectly estimated before the revolu-
tion, and that it has been diminished rather than
increased since 1792? To this question I should
distinctly answer, that it does not follow. It has
been seen, in many of the preceding chapters,

* In the year 1792 a law was passed extremely favourable to
early marriages. ‘This was repealed in the year XI., and a law
substituted which threw great obstacles in the way of marriage,
according to Peuchet (p. 234.) These two laws will assist in ac-
counting for a small proportion of births and marriages in the ten
years previous to 1813, consistently with the possibility of a large
proportion in the first six or seven years after the commencement
of the revolution.

cc2

388 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

that the proportions of births, deaths, and mar-
riages, are extremely different in different coun-
tries, and there is the strongest reason for be-
lieving that they are very different in the ‘same
country at different periods, and under different
circumstances.

That changes of this kind have taken place in
Switzerland has appeared to be almost certain.
A similar effect from increased healthiness in our
own country may be considered as an established
fact. And if we give any credit to the best
authorities that can be collected on the subject,
it can scarcely be doubted that the rate of mor-
tality has diminished, during the last one or two
hundred years, in almost every country in Europe.
There is nothing therefore that ought to surprise
us in the mere fact of the same population being
kept up, or even a decided increase taking place,
under a smaller proportion of births, deaths and
marriages. And the only question is, whether
the actual circumstances of France seem to render
such a change probable.

Now it is generally agreed that the condition of
the lower classes of people in France before the
revolution was very wretched. The wages of la-
bour were about 20 sous, or ten pence a day, ata
time when the wages of labour in England were
nearly seventeen pence, and the price of wheat of
the same quality in the two countries was not
very different. Accordingly Arthur Young re-
presents the labouring classes of France, .just at
the commencement of the revolution, as “‘ 76 per

Ch. vii. in France (continued). 389

cent. worse fed, worse clothed, and worse sup-
ported, both in sickness and health, than the same
classes in England.”* And though this statement
is perhaps rather. too strong, and sufficient allow-
ance is not made for the real difference of. prices,
yet his work every where abounds with observa-
tions which shew the depressed condition of the
labouring classes in France at that time, and imply
the pressure of the population very hard against
the limits of subsistence.

On the other hand, it is universally allowed
that the condition of the French peasantry has
been decidedly improved by the revolution and
the division of the national domains. All the
writers who advert to the subject notice a consi-
derable rise in the price of labour, partly occasioned
by the extension of cultivation, and partly by the
demandsof the army. In the Statistique Elémen-
taire of Peuchet, common labour is stated to have
risen from 20 to 30 sous,} while the price of pro-
visions appears to have remained nearly the same;
and Mr. Birbeck, in his late Agricultural Tour in
France,{ says that the price of labour without
board is twenty pence a day, and that provisions
of all kinds are full as cheap again as in England.
This would give the French labourer the same
command of subsistence as an English labourer
would have with three shillings and four pence a
day. But at no time were the wages of common

* Young's Travels in France, vol. i. p. 437.
TP. 381.
+ PL 13.

390 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

‘day-labour in England so high as three shillings
and four pence.

Allowing for some errors in these statements,
they are evidently sufficient to establish a very
marked improvement in the condition of the lower
classes of people in France. But it is next toa
physical impossibility that such a relief from the
pressure of distress should take place without a
diminution in the rate of mortality; and if this
diminution in the rate of mortality has not been
accompanied by a rapid increase of population, it
must necessarily have been accompanied by a
smaller proportion of births. In the interval be-
tween 1802 and 1813 the population seems to have
increased, but to have increased slowly. Conse-
quently a smaller proportion of births, deaths, and
marriages, or the more general operation of pru-
dential restraint, is exactly what the circum-
stances would have led us to expect. There is
perhaps no proposition more incontrovertible than
this, that, in two countries, in which the rate of
increase, the natural healthiness of climate, and
the state of towns and manufactures are sup-
posed to be nearly the same, the one in which the .
pressure of poverty is the greatest will have the
greatest proportion of births, deaths, and mar-
riages.

It does not then by any means follow, as has
been supposed, that because since 1802 the pro-
portion of births in France has been as 1 in 30,
Necker ought to have used 30 as his multiplier in-
stead of 253. Ifthe representations given of the

Ch. vii. in France (continued). 391

state of the labouring classes in France before and
since the revolution be in any degree near the truth,
as the march of the population in both periods
seems to have been nearly the same, the present
proportion of births could not have been applicable
at the period when Necker wrote. At the same
time it is by no means improbable that he took
too low a multiplier. It is hardly credible under
all circumstances that the population of France
should have increased in the interval between 1785
and 1802 so much as from 25+ millions to 28.
But if we allow that the multiplier might at that
time have been 27 instead of 254, it will be allow-
ing as much as is in any degree probable, and yet
this will imply an increase of nearly two millions
from 1785 to 1813; an increase far short of the
rate that has taken place in England, but still suf-
ficient amply to shew the force of the principle of
population in overcoming obstacles appara the
most powerful.

With regard to the question of the increase of
births in the six or seven first years after the com-
meacement of the revolution, there is no proba-
bility of its ever being determined.

In the confusion of the times, it is scarcely pos-
sible to suppose that the registers should have
been regularly kept; and as they were not col-
lected in the year IX., there is no chance of their
being brought forward in a correct state at a sub-
sequent period.

392 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

1825.

Subsequent to the last edition of this work, fur-
ther details have appeared respecting the popula-
tion of France. |

Since 1817, regular returns have been made of
the annual births, deaths, and marriages, over the
whole of the territory comprised in the limits of
France, as settled in 1814 and 1815; and an enu-
meration was made of the population in 1820.

In the Annuaire of the Bureau des Longitudes for
1825, the numbers of births, deaths, and mar-
rlages are given for six years ending with 1822.
The sum of these are,

Excess of births
Births. Deaths. Marriages. above deaths.

5,747,249 4,589,089 1,313,502 1,158,160
The annual average :

Average Excess
Births. Deaths. Marriages. of births.

957,875 764,848 218,917 193,027
The, population in 1820, according to an enu-
meration in each department, was 30,451,187.
From these numbers it appears that the pro-
portion of annual births to the population is as
1 to 31.79, or nearly -3;; the annual mortality as
1 to 39.81, or nearly 2,; the proportion of annual
marriages to the population is as 1 to 139; the
proportion of births to deaths as 125.23 to 100, or
very nearly as 5 to4; and the proportion of mar-
riages to births as 1 to 4.37. The proportion of
illegitimate to legitimate births is as 1 to 14.6; the

Ch. vii. in France (continued). 393

proportion of male to female births as 16 to 15;
and the proportion of the annual excess of the births
above the deaths to the whole population, which,
if the returns are accurate, determines the rate
of increase as 1 to 157.

To what degree the returns of the births, deaths,
and marriages in the 6 years ending with 1822
are accurate, it is impossible to say. There is a
regularity in them which has, a favourable ap-
pearance. We well know, however, that with
the same appearance of regularity there are great
omissions in the births and deaths of our own
registers. Thisis at once proved by the circum-
stance of the excess of the births above the deaths
in the interval between two enumerations falling
considerably short of the increase of population
which appears by such enumerations to have taken
place. The enumerations in France during the
last twenty-five years have not been so regular, or
so much to be depended upon, as those in Eng-
land. The one in 1813, before noticed,. may,
however, be compared with that.in 1820, and if
they are both equally near the truth, it will ap-
pear that the population. of France during the
seven years from 1813 to 1820 must have in-
creased considerably faster than during the six
years ending with 1822, as determined by the ex-
cess of the births above the deaths. The whole
of this excess during these six years, as, above
stated, was 1,158,160, the annual average of which
is 193,027, which, compared with the mean popu-
lation, or the population of 1820, reduced by the

394 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

increase of a year, will give a proportion of annual
increase to the population, as 1 toabout 156; and
this proportion of the annual excess of the births
above the deaths, to the population, will, accord-
ing to Table II. at the end of Ch. xi. Book u1.,
give arate of increase which would double the
population in about 108 years.

On the other hand, as the population of old
France in 1813 was 28,786,911, and in 1820
30,451,187, the difference or the increase of po-
pulation during the seven years being 1,664,276,
the annual average increase will be 237,753, in-
stead of 193,026; and this greater annual in-
crease, compared with the mean population of the
seven years, will be as 1 to 124, instead of 1 to
156, and the rate of increase will be such as would
double the population in about 86 years, instead
of 108, showing the probability of considerable
omissions in the returns of births and deaths in
the 6 years ending with 1822. If, indeed, the
two enumerations can be considered as equally
near the truth, as there is no reason for supposing
that any great difference in the proportion of
births could have occurred in the three years
preceding 1817, it follows that the French regis-
ters require the same kind of correction, though
not to the same extent, as our own. In a subse-
quent chapter I have supposed that the returns of
the births for England and Wales are deficient
4, and of the burials 4,.. This correction applied
- to the French returns would exceed what is ne-
cessary to account for the increase between 1813

Ch. vii. in France (continued ). 395

and 1820. But if we suppose the births to be
deficient ;,, and the deaths 3, the proportion of
the births to the population willthen be =, and
the proportion of the deaths =. These propor-
tions will make the annual excess of the births
above the deaths, compared with the population,
as 1 to a little above 123, which, after a slight
allowance for deaths abroad, will give the same
period of doubling, or the same rate of increase
as that which took place in France between 1813
and 1820, supposing both enumerations to be
equally near the truth.

It is worthy of remark, that, after making the
above allowances for omissions in the returns of
births and deaths, the proportion of deaths ap-
pears to be smaller than in any of the registers
before collected; and as the proportion of the
births is also smaller than either before the revo-
lution, or in the returns from the 30 departments
in the years VIII., IX. and X. before noticed; and
as there is every reason to believe that there were
great omissions in the general returns of the year
IX. and that the omissions in the returns from the
50 departments in 1813, were not fewer than in
the later registers, it may fairly be presumed that
the proportion of births has diminished notwith-
standing the increased rate at which the popula-
tion has been proceeding of late years. This in-
creased rate appears to be owing to a diminished
mortality, occasioned by the improved situation
of the labouring classes since the revolution, and
aided probably by the introduction of vaccination.

396 Of the Checks to Population, &c. Bk. ii.

It shews that an acceleration in the rate of in-
crease is quite consistent with a diminution in the
proportion of births, and that such a diminution
is likely to take place under a diminished morta-
lity from whatever cause or causes arising.

As a curious and striking proof of the error into
which we should fall, in estimating the population
of countries at different periods by the increase
of births, it may be remarked that, according to
Necker, the annual births in France on an ave-
rage of six years, ending with 1780, were 958,586.
The births for the same number of years ending
with 1822, were, as above stated, 957,875. LEsti-
mating therefore the population by the births, it
would appear that in 42 years it had rather di-
minished than increased, whereas, by enumera-
tions, there is every reason to believe that it has
increased in that time nearly four millions.

( 397.)

CHAP. VIII.
Of the Checks to Population in England.

‘Tue most cursory view of society in this country
must convince us, that throughout all ranks the
preventive check to population prevails in a con-
siderable degree. Those among the higher classes,
- who live principally in towns, often want the in-
clination to marry, from the facility with which
they can indulge themselves in an illicit inter-
course with the sex. And others are deterred
from marrying by the idea of the expenses that
they must retrench, and the pleasures of which
they must deprive themselves, on the supposition
of having a family. When the fortune is large,
these considerations are certainly trivial; but a
preventive foresight of this kind has objects of
much greater weight for its contemplation as we
go lower.

A man of liberal education, with an income
only just sufficient to enable him to associate in
the rank of gentlemen, must feel absolutely cer-
tain that, if he marry and have a family, he shall
be obliged to give up all his former connexions.
The woman, whom a man of education would
naturally make the object. of his choice, is one
brought up in the same habits and sentiments
with himself, and used to the familiar intercourse
of a society totally different from that to which

398 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

she must be reduced by marriage. Can aman
easily consent to place the object of his affection
in a situation so discordant, probably, to her
habits and inclinations? Two or three steps of
descent in society, particularly at this round of
the ladder, where education ends and ignorance
begins, will not be considered by the generality
of people as a chimerical, but a real evil. If so-
ciety be desirable, it surely must be free, equal
and reciprocal society, where benefits are con-
ferred as well as received, and not such as the
dependent finds with his patron, or the poor with
the rich.

These considerations certainly prevent many in
this rank of life from following the bent of their
inclinations in an early attachment. Others, in-
fluenced either by a stronger passion or a weaker
judgment, disregard these considerations ; and it
would be hard, indeed, if the gratification of so
delightful a passion as virtuous love did not some-
times more than counterbalance all its attendant
evils. But I fear it must be acknowledged that
the more general consequences of such marriages
are rather calculated to justify than disappoint
the forebodings of the prudent.

The sons of tradesmen and farmers are ex-
horted not to marry, and generally find it neces-
sary to comply with this advice, till they are
settled in some business or farm, which may
enable them to support a family. These events
may not perhaps occur till they are far advanced
in life. The scarcity of farms is a very general

Ch. vii. in England. 399

complaint ; and the competition in every kind of
business is so great, that it is not possible that all
should be successful. Among the clerks in,count-
ing-houses, and the competitors for all kinds of
mercantile and professional employment, it is
probable that the preventive check to population
prevails more than in any other department of so-
ciety.

The labourer who earns eighteen pence or two
shillings a day, and lives at his ease as a single
man, will hesitate a little before he divides that
pittance among four or five, which seems to be
not more than sufficient for one. Harder fare
and harder labour he would perhaps be willing to
submit to for the sake of living with the woman
he loves; but he must feel conscious, that,
should he have a large family and any ill fortune
whatever, no degree of frugality, no possible ex-
ertion of his manual strength, would preserve him
from the heart-rending sensation of seeing his
children starve, or of being obliged to the parish
for their support. The love of independence is a
sentiment that surely none would wish to see
eradicated ; though the poor-laws of England, it
must be confessed, are a system of all others the
most calculated gradually to weaken this senti-
ment, and in the end will probably destroy it
completely.

The servants who live in the families of the
rich have restraints yet stronger to break through
in venturing upon marriage. They possess the
necessaries, and even the comforts of life, almost

400 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ni.

in as great plenty as their masters.. Their work
is easy and their food luxurious, compared with
the work and food of the class of labourers ; and
their sense of dependence is weakened by the
conscious power of changing their masters if they
feel themselves offended. Thus comfortably si-
tuated at present, what are their prospects if
they marry? Without knowledge or capital,
either for business or farming, and unused and
therefore unable to earn a subsistence by daily
labour, their only refuge seems to be a miserable
alehouse, which certainly offers no very enchanting
prospect of a happy evening to their lives. The
greater number of them, therefore, deterred by this
uninviting view of their future situation, content
themselves with remaining single where they are.

If this sketch of the state of society in England
be near the truth, it will be allowed that the pre-
ventive check to population operates with consi-
derable force throughout all the classes of’ the
community. And this observation is further
confirmed by the abstracts from the registers re-
turned in consequence of the Population Act*
passed in 1800.

The results of these abstracts shew, that the
annual marriages in England and Wales are to
the whole population as 1 to 1234,, a smaller

* This chapter was written in 1802, just after the first enu-
meration, the results of which were published in 1801.

+ Observ. on the Results of the Population Act, p. 11, printed
in 1801. The answers to the Population Act have at length hap-
pily rescued the question of the population of this country from

Ch. viii. in England. 40]

proportion of marriages than is to be found in
any of the countries which have been examined,
except Norway and Switzerland.

In the earlier part of the last century, Dr. Short
estimated this proportion at about 1 to 115.* | It
is probable that this calculation was then correct;
and the present diminution in the proportion of
marriages, notwithstanding an increase of popu-
lation more rapid than formerly, owing to the
more rapid progress of commerce and agricul-
ture, is partly a cause, and partly a consequence,
of the diminished mortality observed of late
years.

The returns of the marriages, pursuant to the
late act, are supposed to be less liable to the sus-
picion of inaccuracy than any other parts of the
registers.

Dr. Short, in his New Observations on Town
and Country Bills of Mortality, says, he will
“conclude with the observation of an eminent

the obscurity in which it had been so long involved, and have
afforded some very valuable data to the political calculator. At the
same time it must be confessed that they are not so complete as
entirely to exclude reasonings and conjectures respecting the in-
ferences which are to be drawn from them. It is earnestly to be
hoped that the subject may not be suffered to drop after the pre-
sent effort. Now that the first difficulty is removed, an enumeration
every ten years might be rendered easy and familiar; and the
registers of births, deaths and marriages might be received every
year, or at least every five years. I am persuaded, that more
inferences are to be drawn respecting the internal state of a
country from such registers than we have yet been in the habit of
supposing.

* New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 265. 8vo, 1750.

VOL. I. DD

402 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 11.

« Judge of this nation, that the growth and in-
‘‘ crease of mankind is more stinted from the
“cautious difficulty people make to enter on
‘marriage, from the prospect of the trouble and
«expenses in providing fora family, than from
‘any thing in the nature of the species.” And,
in conformity to this idea, Dr. Short proposes
to lay heavy taxes and fines on those who live
single, for the support of the married poor.*

The observation of the eminent Judge is, with
regard to the numbers which are prevented from
being born, perfectly just; but the inference, that
the unmarried ought to be punished, does not
appear to be equally so. The prolific power of
nature is very far indeed from being called fully
into action in this country. And yet when we
contemplate the insufficiency of the price of la-
bour to maintain a large family, and the amount
of mortality which arises directly and indirectly
from poverty ; and add to this the crowds of chil-
dren, which are cut off prematurely in our great
towns, our manufactories and our workhouses ;
we shall be compelled to acknowledge, that, if
the number born annually were not greatly
thinned by this premature mortality, the funds
for the maintenance of labour must increase with
much greater rapidity than they have ever done
hitherto in this country, in order to find work and
food for the additional numbers that would then
grow up to manhood.

* New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 247. 8vo. 1750.

Ch. viii. in England. 403

Those, therefore, who live single, or marry late,
do not by such conduct contribute in any degree
to diminish the actual population; but merely to
diminish the proportion of premature mortality,
which would otherwise be excessive; and conse-
quently in this point of view do not seem to
deserve any very severe reprobation or punish-
ment.

The returns of the births and deaths are sup-
posed, on good grounds, to be deficient ; and it
will therefore be difficult to estimate, with any
degree of accuracy, the proportion which they
bear to the whole population.

If we divide the existing population of England
and Wales by the average of burials for the five
years ending in 1800, it would appear, that the
mortality was only 1 in 49; * but this is a pro-
portion so extraordinarily small, considering the
number of our great towns and manufactories,
that it cannot be considered as approaching to
the truth.

Whatever may be the exact proportion of the
inhabitants of the towns to the inhabitants of the
country, the southern part of this island certainly
ranks in that class of states, where this proportion
is greater than 1 to 3; indeed there is ample rea-
son to believe, that it is greater than 1 to 2. Ac-
cording to the rule laid down by Crome, the mor-
tality ought consequently to be above | in 30 ;f

* The population is taken at 9,168,000, and the annual deaths
at 186,000. (Obs. on the Results of Pop. Act. p. 6 and 9.)
+ Ueber die Bevélkerung der Europaischen Staaten, p. 127.
DD2

404 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

according to Sussmilch, above 1 in 33* In the
Observations on the Results of the Population Act,t
many probable causes of deficiency in the registry
of the burials are pointed out ; but no calculation
is offered respecting the sum of these deficiencies,
and I have no data whatever to supply such a cal-
culation. I will only observe, therefore, that if
we suppose them altogether to amount to sucha
number as will make the present annual mortality
about 1 in 40, this must appear to be the lowest
proportion of deaths that can well be supposed,
considering the circumstances of the country ;
and, if true, would indicate a most astonishing
superiority over the generality of other states,
either in the habits of the people with respect to
prudence and cleanliness, or in natural healthiness
of situation.f Indeed, it seems to be nearly
ascertained that both these causes, which tend to
diminish mortality, operate in this country to a

* Sussmilch, Géttliche Ordnung, vol. iii. p. 60.

+ B.6.

t It is by no means surprising, that our population should have
been underrated formerly, at least by any person who attempted
to estimate it from the proportion of births or deaths. Till the late
Population Act no one could have imagined that the actual returns
of annual deaths, which might naturally have been expected to be
as accurate in this country as in others, would turn out to be less
than a 49th part of the population. If the actual returns for
France, even so long ago as the ten years ending with 1780, had
been multiplied by 49, she would have appeared at that time to
have a population of above 40 millions. The average of annual
deaths was 818,491. Necker, de l’'Administration des Finances,
tom. i. c, ix. p. 255. 12mo. 1785.

—-

Ch. viii. in England. 405

considerable degree. The small proportion of
annual marriages before mentioned indicates that
habits of prudence, extremely favourable to hap-
piness, prevail through a large part of the com-
munity, in spite of the poor-laws; and it appears
from the clearest evidence, that the generality of
our country parishes are very healthy. Dr. Price
quotes an account of Dr. Percival, collected from
the ministers of different parishes and taken from
positive enumerations, according to which, in some
villages, only a 45th, a 50th, a 60th, a 66th, and
even a 75th, part diesannually. In many of these
parishes the births are to the deaths above 2 to 1,
and in a single parish above 3 to 1.* These how-
ever are particular instances, and cannot be ap-
plied to the agricultural part of the country in
general. In some of the flat situations, and par-
ticularly those near marshes, the proportions are
found very different, and in a few the deaths ex-
ceed the births. In the 54 country parishes, the
registers of which Dr. Short collected, choosing
them purposely in a great variety of situations, the
average mortality was as high as | in37.} This
is certainly much above the present mortality of
our agricultural parishes in general. The period

* Price’s Observ. on Revers. Paym. voi. ii. note, p. 10. First
additional Essay, 4th edit. In particular parishes, private commu-
nications are perhaps more to be depended upon than public re-
turns ; because in general those clergymen only are applied to,
who are in some degree interested in the subject, and of course
take more pains to be accurate.

+ New Observations on Bills of Mortality, table ix. p. 133.

406 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

which Dr. Short took, included some considerable
epidemics, which may possibly have been above
the usual proportion. But sickly seasons should
always be included, or we shall fall into great
errors. In 1056 villages of Brahdenburgh, which
Sussmilch examined, the mortality for six good
years was | in 43; for 10 mixed years about 1 in
381.* Inthe villages of England which Sir F. M.
Eden mentions, the mortality seems to be about |
in 47 or 48;} and in the late returns pursuant to
the Population Act, a still greater degree of health-
iness appears. Combining these observations to-
gether, if we take 1 in 46 or 1 in 48, as the average
mortality of the agricultural part of the country,
including sickly seasons, this will be the lowest
that can be supposed with any degree of proba-
bility. But this proportion will certainly be raised
to 1 in 40, when we blend it with the mortality
of the towns and the manufacturing part of the
community, in order to obtain the average for the
whole kingdom.

The mortality in London, which includes so
considerable a part of the inhabitants of this
country, was, according to Dr. Price, at the time
he made his calculations, 1 in 203; in Norwich 1}
in 24 ; in Northampton 1 in 261; in Newbury
1 in 273;{ in Manchester 1 in 28; in Liverpool 1
in 273,§ &c. He observes that the number dying

* Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. ¢. ii. s. xxi. p. 74.

‘+ Estimate of the Number of Inhabitants in G. Britain.
} Price’s Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. i. note, p. 272.
§ Id. vol. ii. First additional Essay, note, p- 4.

Ch. viii. in England. 407

annually in towns is seldom so low as | in 28,
except in consequence of a rapid increase pro-
duced by an influx of people at those periods of
life when the fewest die, which is the case with
Manchester and Liverpool,* and other very flou-
rishing manufacturing towns. In general he thinks
that the mortality in great towns may be stated at
from 1 in 19 to 1 in 22 and 23; in moderate
towns, from | in 24 tol in 28; and inthe country
villages, from 1 in 40 to 1 in 50.

The tendency of Dr. Price to exaggerate the
unhealthiness of towns may perhaps be objected
to these statements; but the objection seems to
be only of weight with regard to London. The
accounts from the other towns, which are given,
are from documents which his particular opinions
could not influence.{ It should be remarked,
however, that there is good reason to believe, that
not only London, but the other towns in England,
and probably also country villages, were at the

* Price's Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. First additional
Essay, note, p. 4.

+ The mortality at Stockholm was, according to Wargentin, 1
in 19.

t Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. First additional Essay, p. 4.

§ An estimate of the population or mortality of London, before
the late enumeration, always depended much on conjecture and
opinion, on account of the great acknowledged deficiencies in the
registers ; but this was not the case in the same degree with the
other towns here named. Dr. Price, in allusion to a diminishing
population, on which subject it appears that he has so widely erred,
says very candidly, that perhaps he may have been insensibly in-
fluenced to maintain an opinion once advanced.

408 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

time of these calculations less healthy than at
present. Dr. William Heberden observes, that
the registers of the ten years from 1759 to 1768,*
from which Dr. Price calculated the probabilities
of life in London, indicate a much greater degree
of unhealthiness than the registers of late years.
And the returns pursuant to the Population Act,
even after allowing for great omissions in. the
burials, exhibit in all our provincial towns, and in
the country, a degree of healthiness much greater
than had before been calculated. At the same
time I cannot but think that 1 in 31, the propor-
tion of mortality for London mentioned in the
Observations on the Results of the Population Act,t
is smaller than the truth. Five thousand are not
probably enough to allow for the omissions in the
burials; and the absentees in the employments
of war and commerce are not sufficiently adverted
to. In estimating the proportional mortality the
resident population alone should be considered.
There certainly seems to be something in great
towns, and even in moderate towns, peculiarly
unfavourable to the very early stages of life; and
the part of the community, on which the mortality
principally falls, seems to indicate that it arises
more from the closeness and foulness of the air,
which may be supposed to be unfavourable to the
tender lungs of children, and the greater confine-
ment which they almost necessarily experience,

* Tucrease and Decrease of Diseases, p. 32, 4to. 1801.
+ POG:

Ch. viii. in England. 409

than from the superior degree of luxury and de-
bauchery usually and justly attributed to towns.
A married pair with the best constitutions, who
lead the most regular and quiet life, seldom find
that their children enjoy the same health in towns
as in the country.

In London, according to former calculations,
one half of the born died under three years of
age; in Vienna and Stockholm under two; in
Manchester under five; in Norwich under five: in
Northampton under ten.* In country villages,
on the contrary, half of the born live till thirty,
thirty-five, forty, forty-six, and above. In the
parish of Ackworth, in Yorkshire, it appears,
from a very exact account kept by Dr. Lee of the
ages at which all died there for 20 years, that half
of the inhabitants live to the age of 46;+ and
there is little doubt, that, if the same kind of
account had been kept in some of those parishes
before mentioned, in which the mortality is so
small as 1 in 60, 1 in 66, and even 1 in 75, half of
the born would be found to have lived to 50 or 55.

As the calculations respecting the ages to which
half of the born live in towns depend more upon
the births and deaths which appear in the regis-
ters, than upon any estimates of the number of
people, they are on this account less liable to
uncertainty, than the calculations respecting the

* Price’s Observ. on Revers, Paym. vol. i. p. 264—266. 4th
edit.
+ Id. vol. i. p. 268.

410 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

proportion of the inhabitants of any place which
dies annually.

To fill up the void occasioned by this mortality
in towns, and to answer all further demands for
population, it is evident that a constant supply of
recruits from the country is necessary; and this
supply appears in fact to be always flowing in
from the redundant births of the country. Even
in those towns where the births exceed the deaths,
this effect is produced by the marriages of persons
not born in the place. At a time when our pro-
vincial towns were increasing much less rapidly
than at present, Dr. Short calculated that =, of
the married were strangers.* Of 1618 married
men, and 1618 married women, examined at the
Westminster infirmary, only 329 of the men and
495 of the women had been born in London.t

Dr. Price supposes that London with its neigh-
bouring parishes, where the deaths exceed the
births, requires a supply of 10,000 persons annu-
ally. Graunt, in his time, estimated the supply
for London alone at 6,000;f and he further ob-
serves, that, let the mortality of the city be what
it will, arising from plague, or any other great
cause of destruction, it always fully repairs its
loss in two years.§

As all these demands, therefore, are supplied

* New Observations on Bills of Mortality, p. 76.

ft Price’s Observ. on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. p- 17.

+ Short’s New Observ, Abstract from Graunt, p. 277.
§ Id. p. 276.

Ch. viii. in England. ' 411

from the country, it is evident that we should fall
into a very great error, if we were to estimate the
proportion of births to deaths for the whole king-
dom, by the proportion observed in country
parishes, from which there must be such nu-
merous emigrations.

We need not, however, accompany Dr. Price in
his apprehensions that the country will be depo-
pulated by these emigrations, at least as long as
the funds for the maintenance of agricultural
labour remain unimpaired. The proportion of
births, as well as the proportion of marriages,
clearly proves, that, in spite of our increasing
towns and manufactories, the demand on the
country for people is by no means very pressing.

If we divide the present population of England
and Wales by the average number of baptisms
for the last five years,* it will appear, that the
baptisms are to the population as 1 to very
nearly 36 ;{ but it is supposed, with reason, that
there are great omissions in the baptisms.

Dr. Short estimated the proportion of births to
the population of England as one to 28.f In the
agricultural report of Suffolk, the proportion of

* This was written before the omitted returns were added in
1810. These additions make the births in 1800 amount to 263,000,
instead of 255,426, and increase the proportion of registered births
to 1 in 35.—See the next chapter.

+ Average medium of baptisms for the last five years 255,426.
Pop. 9,198,000. (Observ. on Results, p. 9.)

+ New Observ. p. 267.

412 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

births to the population was calculated at 1 to
30. For the whole of Suffolk, according to the
late returns, this proportion is not much less than
1 to 33.* According to a correct account of thir-
teen villages from actual enumerations, produced
by Sir F. M. Eden, the proportion of births to
the population was as 1 to 33; and according
to another account on the same authority, taken
from towns and manufacturing parishes, as 1 to
273.¢ If, combining all these circumstances, and
adverting at the same time to the acknowledged
deficiency in the registry of births, and the known
increase of our population of late years, we sup-
pose the true proportion of the births to the popu-
lation to be as 1 to 80; then assuming the pre-
sent mortality to be 1 in 40, as before suggested,
we shall nearly keep the proportion of baptisms
to burials which appears in the late returns. The
births will be to the deaths as 4 to 3 or 13+ to 10,
a proportion more than sufficient to account for
the increase of population which has taken place ©
since the American war, after allowing for those
who may be supposed to have died abroad.

* Tn private inquiries, dissenters and those who do not christen
their children, will not of course be reckoned in the population ;
consequently such inquiries, as far as they extend, will more accu-
rately express the true proportion of births; and we are fairly
justified in making use of them, in order to estimate the acknow-
ledged deficiency of births in the public returns.

t+ Estimate of the Number of Inhabitants in Great Britain, &c.
p. 27.

Ch. viii. in England. 413

In the Observations on the Results of the Popula-
tion Act it is remarked that the average duration
of life in England appears to have increased in
the proportion of 117 to 100,* since the year
1780. So great a change, in so short a time, if
true, would be a most striking phenomenon. But
Iam inclined to suspect that the whole of this
proportional diminution of burials does not arise
from increased healthiness, but is occasioned, in
part, by the greater number of deaths which must
necessarily have taken place abroad, owing to the
very rapid increase of our foreign commerce since
this period; and to the great number of persons
absent on naval and military employments, and
the constant supply of fresh recruits necessary to
maintain undiminished so great a force. A pet-
petual drain of this kind would certainly have a
tendency to produce the effect observed in the
returns, and might keep the burials stationary,
while the births and marriages were increasing
with some rapidity. At the same time, as the
increase of population since 1780 is incontrover-
tible, and the present mortality extraordinarily
small, I should still be disposed to believe, that
much the greater part of the effect is to be attri-
buted to increased healthiness.

A mortality of 1 in 36 is perhaps too small a
proportion of deaths for the average of the whole
century ; but a proportion of births to deaths as
12 to 10, calculated on a mortality of 1 in 36,

© PG:

414 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

would double the population of a country in 125
years, and is therefore as great a proportion of
births to deaths, as can be true for the average of
the whole century. None of the late calculations
imply a more rapid increase than this.

We must not suppose, however, that this pro-
portion of births to deaths, or any assumed pro-
portion of births and deaths to the whole popula-
tion, has continued nearly uniform throughout the
century. It appears from the registers of every
country which have been kept for any length of
time, that considerable variations occur at different
periods. Dr. Short, about the middle of the cen-
tury, estimated the proportion of births to deaths
as 11 to 10;* and if the births were at the same
time a twenty-eighth part of the population, the
mortality was then as high as 1 in 304. We now
suppose that the proportion of births to deaths is
above 13 to 10; but if we were to assume this
proportion as a criterion by which to estimate
the increase of population for the next hundred

years, we should probably fall into a very gross
error. We cannot reasonably suppose that the
resources of this country should increase for any
long continuance with such rapidity as to allow of
a permanent proportion of births to deaths as 13
to 10, unless indeed this proportion were princi-
pally caused by great foreign drains.

From all the data that could be collected, the

* New Observ. tables ii. and iii. p. 22 and 44; Price’s Observ.
on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. p. 311.

Ch. viii. in England. 415

proportion of births to the whole population of
England and Wales has been assumed to be as 1
to 30; but this is a smaller proportion of births
than has appeared in the course of this review to
take place in any other country except Norway
and Switzerland; and it has been hitherto usual
with political calculators, to consider a great pro-
portion of births as the surest sign of a vigorous
and flourishing state. It is to be hoped, however,
that this prejudice will not last long. In countries
circumstanced like America or Russia, or in other
countries after any great mortality, a large pro-
portion of births is a favourable symptom; but
in the average state of a well-peopled territory
there cannot well be a worse sign than a large
proportion of births, nor can there well be a better
sign than a small proportion.

Sir Francis d’I[vernois very justly observes, that,
‘< if the various states of Europe kept and pub-
“lished annually an exact account of their popu-
‘‘ Jation, noting carefully in a second column the
“‘ exact age at which the children die, this second
“« column would shew the relative merit of the
‘* governments, and the comparative happiness of
“ their subjects. A simple arithmetical statement
“« would then perhaps be more conclusive than all
“the arguments that could be adduced.”* In
the importance of the inferences to be drawn from
such tables, I fully agree with him; and to make

* Tableau des Pertes, &c. c. ii. p. 16.

416 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 11.

these inferences, it is evident, that we should
attend less to the column expressing the number
of children born, than to the column expressing
the number which survived the age of infancy
and reached manhood; and this number will al-
most invariably be the greatest, where the pro-
portion of the births to the whole population is
the least. In this point, we rank next after Nor-
way and Switzerland, which, considering the
number of our great towns and manufactories, is
certainly a very extraordinary fact. As nothing
can be more clear, than that all our demands for
population are fully supplied, if this be done with
a small proportion of births, it is a decided proof
of a very small mortality, a distinction on which
we may justly pride ourselves. Should it appear
from future investigations that I have made too
great an allowance for omissions both in the births
and in the burials, I shall be extremely happy to
find that this distinction, which, other circum-
stances being the same, I consider as the surest
test of happiness and good government, is even
greater than I have supposed it to be. In des-
potic, miserable, or naturally unhealthy countries,
the proportion of births to the whole population
will generally be found very great.

On an average of the five years ending in 1800,
the proportion of births to marriages is 347 to
100. In 1760, it was 362 to 100, from which an
inference is drawn, that the registers of births,
however deficient, were certainly not more defi-

Ch. vi. in England. 417

cient formerly than at present.* But a change of
this nature, in the appearance of the registers,
might arise from causes totally unconnected with
deficiencies. If from the acknowledged greater
healthiness of the latter part of the century, com-
pared with the middle of it, a greater number of
children survived the age of infancy, a greater
proportion of the born would of course live to
marry, and this circumstance would produce a
greater present proportion of marriages compared
with the births. On the other hand, if the mar-
riages were rather more prolific formerly than at
present, owing to their being contracted at an
earlier age, the effect would be a greater propor-
tion of births compared with the marriages. The
operation of either or both of these causes would
produce exactly the effect observed in the regis-
ters: and consequently from the existence of such
an effect no inference can justly be drawn against
the supposed increasing accuracy of the registers.
The influence of the two causes just mentioned on
the proportions of annual births to marriages will
be explained in a subsequent chapter.

With regard to the general question, whether
we have just grounds for supposing that the regis-
try of births and deaths was more deficient in the
former part of the century than in the latter part;
I should say, that the late returns tend to confirm
the suspicion of former inaccuracy, and to shew
that the registers of the earlier part of the century,

* Observ. on the Results of the Population Act, p. 8.
VOL. 5. EE

418 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

in every point of view, afford very uncertain data
on which to ground any estimates of past popula-
tion. In the years 1710, 1720, and 1730, it ap-
pears from the returns that the deaths exceeded
the births; and taking the six periods ending in
1750,* including the first half of the century, if we
compare the sum of the births with the sum of the
deaths, the excess of the births is so small, as to
be perfectly inadequate to account for the increase
of a million, which, upon a calculation from the
births alone, is supposed to have taken place in
that time.t Consequently, either the registers
are very inaccurate, and the deficiencies in the
births greater than in the deaths; or these periods,
each at the distance of ten years, do not express
the just average. These particular years may
have been more unfavourable with respect to the
proportion of births to deaths than the rest; in-
deed one of them, 1710, is known to have been a
year of great scarcity and distress. But if this
suspicion, which is very probable, be admitted,
so as to affect the six first periods, we may justly
suspect the contrary accident to have happened
with regard to the three following periods ending
with 1780; in which thirty years it would seem, by
the same mode of calculation, that an increase of
a million and a half had taken place.[ At any
rate it must be allowed, that the three separate

* Population Abstracts, Parish Registers. Final summary,
p- 405.

‘+ Observ. on the Results of the Population Act, p. 9.

+ Ibid.

Ch. viii. . in England. 419

years, taken in this manner, can by no means be
considered as sufficient to establish a just average;
and what rather encourages the suspicion, that
these particular years might be more than usually
favourable with regard to births is, that the in-
crease of births from 1780 to 1785 is unusually
small,* which would naturally be the case with-
out supposing a slower progress than before, if
the births in 1780 had been accidentally above
the average.

On the whole, therefore, considering the pro-
bable inaccuracy of the earlier registers, and the
very great danger of fallacy in drawing general
inferences from a few detached years, I do not
think that we can depend upon any estimates of
past population, founded on a calculation from
‘the births, till after the year 1780, when every
following year is given, and a just average of the
births may be obtained. As a further confirma-
tion of this remark I will just observe, that in the
final summary of the abstracts from the registers
of England and Wales it appears, that in the year
1790, the total number of births was 248,774, in
the year 1795, 247,218, and in 1800, 247,147.
Consequently if we had been estimating the popu-
lation from the births, taken at three separate
periods of five years, it would have appeared,
that the population during the last ten years had
been regularly decreasing, though we have very

* Observ. on the Results of the Population Act, p. 9.
+ Population Abstracts, Parish Registers, p. 455.
EE2

420 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

good reason to believe, that it has increased con-
siderably.

In the Observations on the Results of the Popu-
lation Act,* a table is given of the population of
England and Wales throughout the last century,
calculated from the births; but for the reasons
given above, little reliance can be placed upon it;
and for the population at the revolution, I should
be inclined to place more dependence on the old
calculations from the number of houses.

It is possible, indeed, though not probable, that
these estimates of the population at the different
periods of the century may not be very far from
the truth, because opposite errors may have cor-
rected each other; but the assumption of the
uniform proportion of births on which they are
founded is false on the face of the calculations
themselves. According to these calculations, the
increase of population was more rapid in the period
from 1760 to 1780, than from 1780 to 1800; yet
it appears, that the proportion of deaths about
the year 1780 was greater than in 1800 in the
ratio of 117 to 100. Consequently the proportion
of births before 1780 must have been much greater
than in 1800, or the population in that period
could not possibly have increased faster. This
overthrows at once the supposition of any thing
like uniformity in the proportion of births.

1 should indeed have supposed from the ana-
logy of other countries, and the calculations of

idk, 192

Ch. viii. in England. 421

Mr. King and Dr. Short, that the proportion of
births at the beginning and in the middle of the
century was greater than at the end. But this
supposition would, in a calculation from the
births, give a smaller population in the early part
of the century than is given in the Results of the
Population Act, though there are strong reasons
for supposing that the population there given is
too small. According to Davenant, the number
of houses in 1690 was 1,319,215, and there is no
_ reason to think that this calculation erred on the
side of excess. Allowing only five to a house in-
stead of 52, which is supposed to be the propor-
tion at present, this would give a population of
above six millions and a half, and it is perfectly
incredible, that from this time to the year 1710,
the population should have diminished nearly a
million and a half. It is far more probable that
the omissions in the births should have been much
greater than at present, and greater than in the
deaths; and this is further confirmed by the ob-
servation before alluded to, that in the first half
of the century the increase of population, as
calculated from the births, is much greater than
is warranted by the proportion of births to deaths.
In every point of view, therefore, the calculations
from the births are little to be depended on.

It must indeed have appeared to the reader, in
the course of this work, that registers of births or
deaths, excluding any suspicion of deficiencies,
must at all times afford very uncertain data for
an estimate of population. On account of the

422 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i

varying circumstances of every country, they are
both precarious guides. From the greater appa-
rent regularity of the births, political calculators
have generally adopted them as the ground of
their estimates in preference to the deaths.
Necker, in estimating the population of France,
observes, that an epidemic disease, or an emigra-
tion, may occasion temporary differences in the
deaths, and that therefore the number of births
is the most certain criterion.* But the very cir-
cumstance of the apparent regularity of the births
in the registers will now and then lead into great
errors. If in any country we can obtain registers
of burials for two or three years together, a plague
or mortal epidemic will always shew itself, from
the very sudden increase of the deaths during its
operation, and the still greater diminution of them
afterwards. From these appearances, we should
of course be directed, not to include the whole of
a great mortality in any very short term of years.
But there would be nothing of this kind to guide
us in the registers of births; and after a country
had lost an eighth part of its population by a
plague, an average of the five or six subsequent
years might shew an increase in the number of
births, and our calculations would give the popu-
lation the highest at the very time that it was the
lowest. This appears very strikingly in many of
Sussmilch’s tables, and most particularly in a
table for Prussia and Lithuania, which I shall in-

* De l’Administration des Finances, tom. i. c. ix. p. 252. 12mo.
1785.

Ch. viii. in England. 423

sert in a subsequent chapter; where, in the year
following to the loss of one third of the popu-
lation, the births were considerably increased,
and in an average of five years but very little
diminished; and this at a time when, of course,
the country could have made but a very small
progress towards recovering its former popula-
tion.

We do not know indeed of: any extraordinary
mortality which has occurred in England since
1700; and there are reasons for supposing that
the proportions of the births and deaths to the
population during the last century have not
experienced such great variations as in many
countries on the continent; at the same time it
is certain that the sickly seasons which are known
to have occurred, would, in proportion to the
degree of their fatality, produce similar effects ;
and the change which has been observed in the
mortality of late years, should dispose us to be-
lieve, that similar changes might formerly have
taken place respecting the births, and should in-
struct us to be extremely cautious in applying
the proportions, which are observed to be true at
present, to past or future periods.

( 424)

CHAP. IX.

Of the Checks to Population in England (continued ).

Tue returns of the Population Act in 1811 un-
doubtedly presented extraordinary results. They
shewed a greatly accelerated rate of progress,
and a greatly improved healthiness of the people,
notwithstanding the increase of the towns and
the increased proportion of the population en-
gaged in manufacturing employments. They
thus furnished another striking instance of the
readiness with which population starts forwards,
under almost any weight, when the resources of
a country are rapidly increasing.

The amount of the population in 1800, together
with the proportions of births, deaths and mar-
riages, given in the registers, had made it appear
that the population had been for some time in-
creasing at a rate rather exceeding what would
result from a proportion of births to deaths as 4
to 3, with a mortality of 1 in 40.

These proportions would add to the population
of a country every year 120th part; and if they
were to continue, would, according to table ii.,
ch. xi. double the population in every succes-
sive period of 83: years. This is a rate of pro-
gress which in a rich and well-peopled country
might reasonably be expected to diminish rather

Ch. ix. in England (continued ). 425

than to increase. But instead of any such dimi-
nution, it appears that as far as 1810 it had been
considerably accelerated.

In 1810, according to the returns from each
parish, with the additions of 4, for the soldiers,
sailors, &c., the population of England and Wales
was estimated at 10,488,000,* which, compared
with 9,168,000, the population of 1800, estimated
in a similar manner, shews an increase in the ten
years of 1,320,000.

The registered baptisms during ten years were
2,878,906, and the registered burials 1,950,189.
The excess of the births is therefore 928,717,
which falls very considerably short of the increase
shewn by the two enumerations. This deficiency
could only be occasioned either by the enumera-
tion in 1800 being below the truth, or by the
inaccuracy of the registers of births and burials,
or by the operation of these two causes com-
bined ; as it is obvious that, if the population in
1800 were estimated correctly, and the registers
contained al] the births and burials, the difference
must exceed rather than fall short of the real
addition to the population; that is, it would ex-
ceed it exactly by the number of persons dying
abroad in the army, navy, &c.

There is reason to believe that both causes had
a share in producing the effect observed, though
the latter, that is, the inaccuracy of the registers,
in much the greatest degree.

* See the Population Abstracts published in 1811, and the va-
luable Preliminary Observations by Mr. Rickman.

426 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ui.

In estimating the population throughout. the
century,* the births have been assumed to bear
the same proportion at all times to the number of
people. It has been seen that such an assump-
tion might often lead to a very incorrect estimate
of the population of a country at different and
distant periods. As the population however is
known to have increased with great rapidity from
1800 to 1810, it is probable that the proportion
of births did not essentially diminish during that
period. But if, taking the last enumeration as
correct, we compare the births of 1810 with the
births of 1800, the result will imply a larger po-
pulation in 1800 than is given in the enumeration
for that year.

Thus the average of the last five years’ births
to 1810 is 297,000, and the average of the five
years’ births to 1800 is 263,000. But 297,000
is to 263,000 as 10,488,000, the population of
1810, to 9,287,000, which must therefore have
been the population in 1800, if the proportion of
births be assumed to be the same, instead of
9,198,000, the result of the enumeration. It is
further to be obseved that the increase of popu-
lation from 1795 to 1800 is according to the table
unusually small, compared with most of the pre-
ceding periods of five years. And a slight in-
spection of the registers will shew that the pro-
portion of births for five years from 1795, including

* See a table of the population throughout the century, in
page xxv. of the Preliminary Observations to the Population Ab-
tracts, printed in 1811.

Ch. ix. in England (continued ). 427

the diminished numbers of 1796 and 1800, was
more likely to be below than above the general
average. For these reasons, together with the
general impression on the subject, it is probable
that the enumeration in 1800 was short of the
truth, and perhaps the population at that time
may be safely taken at as much as 9,287,000 at
the least, or about 119,000 greater than the re-
turns gave it.

But even upon this supposition, neither the
excess of births above the deaths in the whole of
the ten years, nor the proportion of births to
deaths, as given in the registers, will account for
an increase from 9,287,000, to 10,488,000. Yet it
is not probable that the increase has been much
less than is shewn by the proportion of the births
at the two periods. Some allowance must there-
fore necessarily be made for omissions in the
registers of births and deaths, which are known
to be very far from correct, particularly the
registers of births.

There is reason to believe that there are few
or no omissions in the register of marriages ; and
if we suppose the omissions in the births to be
one-6th, this will preserve a proportion of the
births to the marriages as 4 to 1, a proportion
which appears to be satisfactorily established
upon other grounds ;* but if we are warranted in
this supposition, it will be fair to take the omis-

* See the Preliminary Observations on the Population Abstracts,
p: XXVI.

428. Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

sions in the deaths at such a number as will
make the excess of the births above the deaths in
the ten years accord with the increase of popula-
tion estimated by the increase of the births.

The registered births in the ten years, as was
mentioned before, are 2,878,906, which increased
by one-6th will be 3,358,723. The registered
burials are 1,950,189, which increased by one-
12th will be 2,112,704. The Jatter subtracted
from the former will give 1,246,019 for the ex-
cess of births, and the increase of population in
the ten years, which number added to 9,287,000,
the corrected population of 1800, will give
10,533,019, forty-five thousand above the enu-
meration of 1810, leaving almost exactly the num-
ber which in the course of the ten years appears to
have died abroad. This number has been cal-
culated generally at about 41 per cent. on the
male births; but in the present case there are the
means of ascertaining more accurately the number
of males dying abroad during the period in ques-
tion. In the last population returns the male and
female births and deaths are separated; and from
the excess of the male births above the female
births, compared with the male and female deaths,
it appears that forty-five thousand males died
abroad.*

* See Population Abstracts, 1811, page 196 of the Parish
Register Abstract.

It is certainly very extraordinary that a smaller proportion of
males than usual should appear to have died abroad from 1800

Ch. ix. in England (continued ). 429

The assumed omissions therefore in the births
and burials seem to answer so far very well.

It remains to see whether the same supposi-
tions will give such a proportion of births to
deaths, with such a rate of mortality, as will also
account for an increase of numbers in ten years
from 9,287,000 to 10,488,000.

If we divide the population of 1810 by the
average births of the preceding five years, with
the addition of one-Gth, it will appear that the
proportion of births to the population is as 1 to 30.
But it is obvious that if the population be in-
creasing with some rapidity, the average of births
for five years, compared with the population at
the end of such period, must give the proportion
of births too small. And further, there is always

-a probability that a proportion which is correct
for five years may not be correct for ten years.
In order to obtain the true proportion applicable
to the progress of population during the period
in question, we must compare the annual average
of the births for the whole term, with the average
or mean population of the whole term.

The whole number of births, with the addition
of +, is, as before stated, 3,358,723, and the annual
average during the ten years 335,872. The mean
population, or the mean between 10,488,000 (the
population of 1810) and 9,287,000 (the corrected
population of 1800) is 9,887,000; and the latter

to 1810; but as the registers for this period seem to prove it, I
have made my calculations accordingly.

430 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

number divided by the average of the births will
give a proportion of births to the population as 1
to rather less than 29+, instead of 30, which will
make a considerable difference.

In the same manner, if we divide the population
of 1810 by the average of the burials for the pre-
ceding five years, with the addition of one-12th,
the mortality will appear to be as 1 in nearly
50; but upon the same grounds as with regard
to the births, an average of the burials for five
years, compared with the population at the end
of such term, must give the proportion of burials
too small; and further, it is known, in the present
case, that the proportion of burials to the popula-
tion by no means continued the same during the
whole time: In fact the registers clearly shew an
improvement in the healthiness of the country,
and a diminution of mortality progressively
through the ten years; and while the average
number of annual births increased from 263,000
to 287,000, or more than one-8th, the burials
mereased only from 192,000 to 196,000 or one-
48th. It is obviously necessary then for the pur-
pose in view to compare the average mortality
with the average or mean population.

The whole number of burials in the ten years,
with the addition of one-12th, is, as was before
stated, 2,112,704, and the mean population
9,887,000. The latter, divided by the former,
gives the annual average of burials compared with
the population as 1 torather less than 47. Buta
proportion of births as 1 to 293, with a proportion

Ch. ix. in England (continued ). 431

of deaths as } to 47, will add yearly to the num-
bers of a country one-79th of the whole, and in
ten years will increase the population from
9,287,000 to 10,531,000, leaving 43,000 for the
deaths abroad, and agreeing very nearly with the
calculation founded on the excess of births.*

We may presume therefore that the assumed
omissions in the births and deaths from 1800 to
1810 are not far from the truth.

But if these omissions of one-G6th for the births,
and one-12th for the burials, may be considered as
nearly right for the period between 1800 and
1810, it is probable that they may be applied
without much danger of error to the period be-
tween 1780 and 1800, and may serve to correct

* A general formula for estimating the population of a country
at any distance from a certain period, under given circumstances
of births and mortality, may be found in Bridge’s Elements of
Algebra, p. 225.

Log. A= log. P + n x log. 1 + m—b
mb
A representing the required population at the end of any number of
years ; n the number of years ; P the actual population at the given
period; ;; the proportion of yearly deaths to the population, or
ratio of mortality ; 4 the proportion of yearly births to the popu-
Jation, or ratio of births.

In the present case, P= 9,287,000; n=10; m= 47

b = 293.

m—b
= 75 3 11 —b
i azo andl +m = 90
m b
The log, of $8 = 00546, ».n x log. 1 + m—b
mb

=05460. Log. P. = 6.96787, which added to 05460 = 7.02247
the log of A, the number answering to which is 10,531,000.

432 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 11.

some of the conclusions founded on the births
alone. Next to an accurate enumeration, a cal-
culation from the excess of births above the deaths
is the most to be depended upon. Indeed when
the registers contain all the births and deaths, and
there are the means of setting out from a known
population, it is obviously the same as an actual
enumeration; and where a nearly correct allow-
ance can be made for the omissions in the regis-
ters, and for the deaths abroad, a much nearer
approximation to it may be obtained in this way
than from the proportion of births to the whole
population, which is known to be liable to such
frequent variations.

The whole number of births returned in the
twenty years, from 1780 to 1800, is 5,014,899,
and of the burials 3,840,455. If we add one-6th
to the former, and one-12th to the latter, the two
numbers will be 5,850,715, and 4,160,492; and
subtracting the latter from the former, the excess
of the births above the deaths will be 1,690,223.
Adding this excess to the population of 1780, as
calculated in Mr. Rickman’s tables, from the
births, which is 7,953,000, the result will be
9,643,000, a number which, after making a pro-
per allowance for the deaths abroad, is very much
above the population of 1800, as before corrected,
and still more above the number which is given in
the table as the result of the enumeration.

But if we proceed upon the safer ground just
suggested, and, taking the corrected population of
1800 as established, subtract from it the excess of

Ch. ix. in England (continued ). 433

the births during the twenty years, diminished
by the probable number of deaths abroad, which
in this case will be about 124,000, we shall have
the number 7,721,000 for the population of 1780,
instead of 7,953,000; and there is good reason to
believe that this is nearer the truth;* and that not
only in 1780, but in many of the intermediate pe-
riods, the estimate from the births has represented
the population as greater, and increasing more
irregularly, than would be found to be true, if re-
course could be had to enumerations. This has
arisen from the proportion of births to the popu-
lation being variable, and, on the whole, greater
in 1780, and at other periods during the course of
the twenty years, than it was in 1800.

In 1795, for instance, the population is repre-
sented to be 9,055,000, and in 1800, 9,168,000 ;+
but if we suppose the first number to be correct,
and add the excess of the births above the deaths
in the five intervening years, even without making
any allowance for omissions in the registers, we
shall find that the population in 1800 ought to
have been 9,398,000, instead of 9,168,000; or if
we take the number returned for 1800 as correct,
it will appear, by subtracting from it the excess of
births during the five preceding years, that the
population in 1795. ought to have been 8,825,000,

* The very small difference between the population of 1780 and
1785, as given in the table, seems strongly to imply that one of
the two estimates is erroneous.

+ Population Abstracts, 1811. Preliminary View, p. xxv.

VOL. I. F F

434 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 11.

instead of 9,055,000. Hence it follows, that the
estimate from the births in 1795 cannot be
correct.

To obtain the population at that period, the
safest way is to apply the before-mentioned cor-
rections to the registers, and, having made the
allowance of 41 per cent. on the male births for
the deaths abroad, subtract the remaining excess
of the births from the corrected returns of 1800.
The result in this case will be 8,831,086 for the
population of 1795, implying an increase in the
five years of 455,914, instead of only 113,000, as
shewn by the table calculated from the births.

If we proceed in the same manner with the
period from 1790 to 1795, we shall find that the
excess of births above the deaths (after the fore-
going corrections have been applied, and an al-
lowance has been made of 4+ per cent. upon the
male births for the deaths abroad), will be
415,669, which, subtracted from 8,831,086, the
population of 1795, as above estimated, leaves
8,415,417 for the population of 1790.

Upon the same principle, the excess of the
births above the deaths in the interval between
1785 and 1790 will turn out to be 416,776. The
population in 1785 will therefore be 7,998,641.
And in like manner the excess of the bitths above
the deaths in the interval between 1780 and 1785
will be 277,544, and the population in 1780
7,721,097. |

The two tables therefore, of the population,
from 1780 to 1810, will stand thus :

Ch. ix.

in England (continued ).

Table, calculated from the births
alone, in the Preliminary Ob-
servations to the Population
Abstracts, printed in 1811.

Population in

1780
1785
1790
1795
1800
1805
1810

7,953,000
8,016,000
8,675,000
9,055,000
9,168,000
9,828,000
10,488,000

435

Table, calculated from the ex-
cess of the births above the
deaths, after an allowance
made for the omissions in the
registers, and the deaths
abroad.

Population in

1780
1785
1790
1795
1800
1805
1810

7,721,000
7,998,000
8,415,000
8,831,000
9,287,000
9,837,000
10,488,000

In the first table, or table calculated from the
births alone, the additions made to the population
in each period of five years are as follow ;—

From 1780 to
From 1785 to
From 1790 to
From 1795 to
From 1800 to
From 1805 to

1785
1790
1795
1800
1805
1810

63,000
659,000
380,000
113,000
660,000
660,000

In the second table, or table calculated from
the excess of the births above the deaths, after the
proposed corrections have been applied, the ad-
ditions made to the population in each period of
five years will stand thus :-—

From 1780 to
From 1785 to
From 1790 to
From 1795 to
From 1800: to
From 1805 to

1785
1790
1795
1800
1805
1810

277,000
417,000
416,000
456,000
550,000
651,000

436 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

The progress of the population, according to
this latter table, appears much more natural and
probable than according to the former.

It is in no respect likely that, in the interval
between 1780 and 1785, the increase of the po-
pulation should only have been 63,000, and in the
next period 659,000; or that, in the interval be-
tween 1795 and 1800, it should have been only
113,000, and in the next period 660,000. But it
is not necessary to dwell on probabilities; the
most distinct proofs may be brought to shew that,
whether the new table be right or not, the old
table must be wrong. Without any allowances
being made for omissions in the registers, the ex-
cess of the births above the deaths, in the period
from 1780 to 1785, shews an increase of 193,000,
instead of 63,000. And, on the other hand, no
allowances for omissions in the registers, that
could with the slightest degree of probability be
supposed, would make the excess of births above
the deaths in the period from 1785 to 1790 equal
to 659,000. Making no allowance for omissions,
this excess only amounts to 317,306; and if we
were to suppose the omissions in the births one-
4th, instead of one-G6th, and that there were no
omissions in the registers of burials, and that no
one died abroad, the excess would still fall short
of the number stated by many thousands.

The same results would follow, if we were to
estimate the progress of population during these
periods by the proportion of births to deaths, and
the rate of mortality. In the first period the in-

Ch. ix. in England (continued). 437

crease would turn out to be very much greater
than the increase stated, and in the other very
much less.

Similar observations may be made with regard
to some of the other periods in the old table, par-
ticularly that between 1795 and 1800, which has
been already noticed.

It will be found on the other hand, that, if the
proportion of births to deaths during each period
be estimated with tolerable accuracy and com-
pared with the mean population, the rate of the
progress of the population determined by this cri-
terion will, in every period, agree very nearly with
the rate of progress determined by the excess of
the births above the deaths, after applying the
proposed corrections. And it is further worthy of
remark that, if the corrections proposed should be
in some degree inaccurate, as is probable, the
errors arising from any such inaccuracies are likely
to be very much less considerable than those which
must necessarily arise from the assumption on
which the old table is founded; namely, that the
births bear at all times the same proportion to the
population.

Of course I do not mean to reject any estimates
of population formed in this way, when no better
materials are to be found; but, in the present case,
the registers of the burials as well as baptisms are
given every year, as far back as 1780, and these
registers, with the firm ground of the last enume-
ration to stand upon, afford the means of giving a
more correct table of the population from 1780

438 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

than was before furnished, and of shewing at the
same time the uncertainty of estimates from the
births alone, particularly with a view to the pro-
eress of population during particular periods. In
estimating the whole population of a large coun-
try, two or three hundred thousand are not of
much importance; but, in estimating the rate of
increase during a period of five or ten years, an
error to this amount is quite fatal. It will be al-
lowed, I conceive, to make an essential difference
in our conclusions respecting the rate of crease
for any five years which we may fix upon,
whether the addition made to the population
during the term in question is 63,000 or
277,000, 115,000 or 456,000, 659,000 or
417,000.

With regard to the period of the century pre-
vious to 1780, as the registers of the baptisms
and burials are not returned for every year, it is
not possible to apply the same corrections. And
it will be obvious that, in the table calculated from
the births previous to this period, when the re-
gisters are only given for insulated years at some
distance from each other, very considerable errors
may arise, not merely from the varying proportion
of the births to the population, on averages of five
years, but from the individual years produced not
representing with tolerable correctness these ave-
rages.* Avery slight glance at the valuable table

* From the one or other of these causes, I have little doubt,
that the numbers in the table for 1760 and 1770, which imply so

Ch. ix. in England (continued). 439

of baptisms, burials and marriages, given in the
Preliminary Observations to the Population Ab-
stracts,* will shew how very little dependence
ought to be placed upon inferences respecting
the population drawn from the number of births,
deaths or marriages in individual years. If, for
instance, we were estimating the population in the
two years 1800 and 1801, compared with the
two following years 1802 and 1803, from the pro-
portion of marriages to the population, assuming
this proportion to be always the same, it would
appear that, if the population in the first two years
were nine millions, in the second two years im-
mediately succeeding it would be considerably
above twelve millions, and thus it would seem to
have increased above three millions, or more than
one-third, in this short interval. Nor would the
result of an estimate, formed from the births for
the two years 1800 and 1801, compared with the
two years 1803 and 1804, be materially different;
at least such an estimate would indicate an
increase of two millions six hundred thousand in
three years.

The reader can hardly be surprised at these re-
sults, if he recollects that the births, deaths and
marriages bear but a small proportion to the whole
population; and that consequently variations in
either of these, which may take place from tem-

rapid an increase of population in that interval, do not bear the
proper relation to each other, It is probable that the number given
for 1770 is too great,

* P, 20.

440 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

porary causes, cannot possibly be accompanied by
similar variations in the whole mass of the popu-
lation. An increase in the births of one-third,
which might occur in a single year, instead of
increasing the population one-third, would only
perhaps increase it one-eightieth or ninetieth.

It follows therefore, as I stated in the last chap-
ter, that the table of the population for the cen-
tury previous to 1780, calculated from the returns
of the births alone, at the distance of ten years
each, can only be considered as a very rough ap-
proximation towards the truth, in the absence of
better materials, and can scarcely in any degree
be depended upon for the comparative rate of in-
crease at particular periods.

The population in 1810, compared with that of
1800, corrected as proposed in this chapter, im-
plies a less rapid increase than the difference be-
tween the two enumerations; and it has further
appeared that the assumed proportion of births to
deaths as 47 to 294 is rather below than above
the truth. Yet this proportion is quite extraordi-
nary for a rich and well-peopled territory. It
would add to the population of a country one-79th
every year, and, were it to continue, would, ac-
cording to table ii. ch. xi. of this book, double
the number of inhabitants in less than fifty-five
years.

This is a rate of increase, which in the nature
of things cannot be permanent. It has been oc-
casioned by the stimulus of a greatly-increased
demand for labour, combined with a greatly-in-

Ch. ix. in England (continued). 44]

creased power of production, both in agriculture
and manufactures. These are the two elements
which form the most effective encouragement to
a rapid increase of population. What has taken
place is a striking illustration of the principle of
population, and a proof that in spite of great
towns, manufacturing occupations, and the gra-
dually-acquired habits of an opulent and luxuriant
people, if the resources of a country will admit
of a rapid increase, and if these resources are
so advantageously distributed as to occasion a
constantly-increasing demand for labour, the po-
pulation will not fail to keep pace with them.

1825.

Since the publication of the last edition of this
work in 1817, a third census of the population
has taken place, and the results are highly worthy
of our attention.

According to the enumeration in 1821, and the
corrected returns of 1811, and 1801, as given in
the preliminary observations to the published ac-
count by Mr. Rickman, the population of Great
Britain was, in 1801, 10,942,646; in i811,
12,596,803, and in 1821, 14,391,631.

These numbers taken as first stated, and in-
cluding the very large numbers of males added
in 1811 for the army and navy, give an in-
crease of 15 per cent. in the ten years, from 1800
to 1811, and only 144 per cent. from 1810 to

442 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

1821.* But it is calculated that out of the
640,500 males added for the army, navy, and
merchant service, above one-third must have been
Irish and foreigners. Adding therefore only -;
to the resident population in 180] and 1811, and
on account of the peace allowing only 4, for the
absent males in 1821, the population of England
and Wales at the three different periods, without
reference to any supposed deficiency in the first
enumeration, will stand thus: in 1801, 9,168,000;
in 1811, 10,502,500; and in 1821, 12,218,500, giv-
ing an increase in the interval between 1800 and
1811 of 142 per cent. and in the interval between
1810 and 1821, of 164 percent. The first of these
two rates of increase would double the population
in 51 and the other in 46 years. As, however,
there must always be some uncertainty respecting
the proportion of the persons employed in the
army, navy and merchant service, properly be-
longing to the resident population, and as the
male population is on other accounts more fre-
quently on the move than the female, it has been
judiciously proposed to estimate the rate of in-
crease by the female population alone. The
number of females in Great Britain was in 1801,
5,492,354; in 1811, 6,262,716; and in 1821,
7,253,728, giving an increase in the first period
of 14.02 per cent. and in the second of 15.82.,
The increase of Scotland taken by itself was in

* Preliminary Observations, p. viii.
+ Ibid.

Ch. ix. in England (continued ). 443

the first period 13 per cent. and in the second
143. The increase of England and Wales exclu-
sive of Scotland appears to be almost exactly the
same; particularly in the second period, whether
we estimate it from the females alone, or from the
whole population, with the proposed allowances
for the army and navy, &c. a proof that these al-
lowances are not far from the truth. At the same
time, it should perhaps be remarked, that if, on
account of the war, during the greater part of the
period from 1800 to 1821, there must have been a
greater portion of the male population destroyed
than usual, the increase of the whole population
ought not to be so great in proportion as the in-
crease of the females; and that if such an increase
appears, it is probably owing to too great a num-
ber of males having been added to the resident
population for the army and navy, or to an influx
from Scotland and Ireland.

The numbers above-mentioned, and the rates of
increase, have been stated as given by Mr. Rick-
man in the Preliminary Observations to the Po-
pulation Abstracts. But in the former part of
this chapter, I assumed on what appeared to me
to be sufficient grounds that the first enumeration
was not so correct as that of 1811, and it is pro-
bable that the enumeration of 1811 is not quite so
correct as that of 1821. In this case the rates of
increase in the two periods will not be so great
as above stated, but still they will appear to be
very extraordinary.

According to the assumed estimate the popu-

444 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 11.

lation, as given in the enumeration of 1801, was
about 119,000 short of the truth; and if on this
ground we take the female population of the
census in 1801 as deficient 60,000, and suppose
that in 1811 it was deficient 30,000, the numbers
of females in England and Wales at the different
periods will stand thus: In 1801, 4,687,867; in
1811, 5,313,219; and in 1821, 6,144,709; giv-
ing an increase of 13.3 per cent. in the period
from 1800 to 1811, and of 15.6 per cent. in the
period from 1800 to 1821; making the rate of in-
crease in the former period such as, if continued,
would double the population in about 55 years,
and in the latter, such as would double it in 48
years. Taking the whole 20 years together, the
rate of increase would be such as, if continued,
would double the population in about 51 years.
This is no doubt a most extraordinary rate of
increase, considering the actual population of the
country compared with its territory, and the
number of its great towns and manufactories. It
is less however than that which is stated in the
Preliminary Observations to the Population Ab-
stracts. Yet even according to this slower rate
of increase it is necessary to suppose that the
omissions in the parish registers, particularly in
regard to the births, have latterly rather increased
than diminished ; and this is rendered probable by
a statement of Mr. Rickman in the Preliminary
Observations. He says, “‘ the question respecting
unentered baptisms and burials showed a diffe~
rence of nearly four to one in the degree of defici-

Ch. ix. in England (continued). 445

ency in the year 1811, the annual average number
of unentered baptisms (as stated at the end of the
several counties) having been 14,860; of burials,
(setting aside London) 3,899 ; at present the pro-
portion is five to one in the degree of deficiency,
the annual average number of unentered_ bap-
tisms (as stated at the end of the several counties)
being 23,066 ; of burials, (setting aside London)
4,657.” And he goes onto say, “ Nor does this
represent the full amount or proportion of unen-
tered baptisms, the clergy of the most populous
places, especially where many of the inhabitants
are dissenters, usually declining to hazard an esti-
mate.” A burial ground, on the contrary, is a visi-
ble object, and among the persons connected with
it, the clergyman can usually procure an account
(more or less accurate) of the number of inter-
ments.

On these grounds it would appear probable that,
owing to the increasing number of dissenters, or
other causes, the omissions in the registers of births
had been lately increasing, rather than diminish-
ing. Yet it has been thought that since the Act
of 1812 the registers of births have been more
carefully kept; and it is certain that, in the 10
years ending with 1820, the proportion of births
to marriages is greater, though the proportions of
births and marriages to the whole population are
both less than they were either in 1800, or in the
ten years ending with 1810. Under these cir-
cumstances, it may be advisable to wait for fur-

446 Of the Checks to Population Bk. u.

ther documents before any fresh conclusion is
drawn respecting the probable amount of omis-
sions in the births and burials. What may be
considered as certain is, that, whereas the sup-
posed admissions of one sixth in the births and
_ one twelfth in the burials, with a proper allow-
ance for the deaths abroad, are more than sufficient
to account for the increase of population during
the twenty years from 1781 to 1801, according to
the numbers stated by Mr. Rickman, they are
not sufficient to account for the increase of po-
pulation in the 20 years from 1801 to 1821, ac-
cording to the enumerations.

I have heard it surmised that the enumerations,
particularly the two last, may by possibility ex-
ceed rather than fall short of the truth, owing to
persons being reckoned more than once, from their
having different places of residence. It must be
allowed, that this supposition would account for
the fact of the diminished proportions of births
and marriages to the whole population, notwith-
standing the apparent increase of that population
with extraordinary rapidity. But the same di-
minished proportions would take place owing to
a diminished mortality ; and asa diminished mor-
tality has been satisfactorily established on other
grounds, it will fairly account for much of what
appears. And ifanything can justly be attributed
to over enumerations, it must be of trifling
amount.

. That there are great omissions both in the births

Ch. ix. in England (continued). 447

and burials, and greater in the former than in the
latter, it is quite impossible to doubt. The testi-
mony of all the clergy concerned in making the
returns was, according to Mr. Rickman, uniform
in this respect. Andif we suppose only the same
proportion of omissions from 1801 to 1821 as we
supposed from 1781 to 1801, and commence with
the census of 1801, on the presumption that the
number of double -entries in that enumeration
would be balanced probably by the number of de-
ficiencies, it will appear that the excess of the
births alone, excluding the deaths abroad, would
bring the population to within 184,404 of the enu-
meration of 1821, and including the allowance for
deaths abroad, (which, in this case, from a compa-
rison of the excess of male births with the male
and female deaths, appears to be 128,651,) to
within 313,055.

On the supposition-of such an amount of double
entries unbalanced by deficiencies in the two last
returns, the enumerations would still shew a very
extraordinary increase of population. The rate
ofincrease in the period from 1801 to 1811 would:
be nearly 13 per cent. (12.88) which would double
the population in about 57 years; and in the
period from 1811 to 1821, it would be very nearly
15 per cent. (14.95), which would double the po-
pulation in 50 years.

Under the uncertainty in which we must remain
at present as to whether the enumerations par-
tially err in defect or in excess, I have not thought
it advisable to alter the amended table of the po-

448 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

pulation from 1781 to 1811, given in the former
part of this chapter. It is founded on a principle
so very much safer than an estimate for the births
alone, that it must at any rate shew the progress
of the population more correctly than that given
in the Preliminary Observations.

The more indeed the population returns are
considered, the more uncertain will appear all
estimates of the past population founded on the
assumptions that the proportion of the births will
always be nearly the same. If the population
since the year 1801 were to be estimated in the
same way as Mr. Rickman has estimated it before
that year, it would appear that the population in
1821, instead of being, according to the enumera-
tion, 12,218,500, would only be 11,625,334, that
is, 593,166 or nearly 600,000 short of the enume-
ration of 1821. And the reason is, that the pro-
portion of births to the population, which, esti-
mated in the way suggested by Mr. Rickman, and
without allowing for omissions, was, in 1821, only
as 1 to 36.58, was, in 1801, as much as 1] to 34.8.

Supposing the enumerations to be correct, the
varying proportions of the births (without allow-
ance for omissions, and comparing the population
at the end of each term with the average births
for the five preceding years,) would be for 1801
as 1 to 34.8, for 1811 as 1 to 35.3, and for 1821
as 1 to 36.58.

Similar and even greater variations will be
found to take place in regard to the proportions of
the marriages to the population.

Ch. ix. in England (continued). 449

In 1801, the proportion was | to 122.2,in 1811
1 to 126.6, in 1821, 1 to 131.1; and if, assuming
that, for the 20 years ending with 1820, the mar-
riages, in which it is supposed that there are very
few omissions, would remain in the same propor-
tion to the population as in 1801, we had esti-
mated the population by the marriages, the num-
bers in 1821, instead of being 12,218,500, would
only have been 11,377,548, that is, 840,952 short
of the enumeration of 1821.

It appears, then, that if we can put any trust in
our enumerations,* no reliance can be placed on
an estimate of past population founded on the
proportions of the births, deaths, or marriages.
The same causes which have operated to alter so
essentially these proportions during the 20 years
for which we have enumerations may have oper-
ated in an equal degree before; and it will be
generally found true, that the increasing healthi-
ness of a country will not only diminish the pro-
portions of deaths, but the proportions of births
and marriages.

* The migrations into England from Ireland and Scotland may
account for some portion of the excess of the enumerations above
what is warranted by the excess of the births above the deaths.

VOL. [. G G

CHAP. X.

Of the Checks to Population in Scotland and Ireland.

Aw examination, in detail, of the statistical ac-
count of Scotland, would furnish numerous illus-
trations of the principle of population; but Ihave
already extended this part of the work so much,
that I am fearful of tirmg the patience of my
readers; and shall therefore confine my remarks
in the present instance to a few circumstances
which have happened to strike me.

On account of the acknowledged omissions in
the registers of births, deaths and marriages in
most of the parishes of Scotland, few just infer-
ences can be drawn from them. Many give ex-
traordinary results. In the parish of Crossmi-
chael* in Kircudbright, the mortality appears to
be only 1 in 98, and the yearly marriages 1 in
192. These proportions would imply the most
unheard-of healthiness, and the most extraor-
dinary operation of the preventive check; but
there can be but little doubt that they are princi-
pally occasioned by the omissions in the registry
of burials, and the celebration of a part of the
marriages in other parishes.

In general, however, it appears, from registers

* Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. i. p. 167.

¥

Ch. x. Of the Checks to Population, &c. 451

which are supposed to be accurate, that in the
country parishes the mortality is small; and that
the proportions of 1 in 45, 1 in 50, and 1 in 55,
are not uncommon. According to a table of the
probabilities of life, calculated from the bills of
mortality in the parish of Kettle by Mr. Wilkie,
the expectation of an infant's life is 46-6,* which is
very high, and the proportion which dies in the
first year is only one 10th. Mr. Wilkie further
adds, that from 36 parish accounts, published in
the first volume, the expectation of an infant’s life
appears to be 40°3. But in a table which he has
produced in the last volume, calculated for the
whole of Scotland from Dr. Webster's survey,
the expectation at birth appears to be only 31
years.t| This, however, he thinks, must be too
low, as it exceeds but little the calculations for
the town of Edinburgh.

The Scotch registers appeared to be in general
so incomplete, that the returns of 99 parishes only
are published in the Population Abstracts of 1801 ;
and, if any judgment can be formed from these,
they shew a very extaordinary degree of healthi-
ness, and a very small proportion of births. The
sum of the population of these parishes in 1801
was 217,873;{ the average of burials, for five
years ending in 1800, was about 3,815; and of
births 4,928:§ from which it would appear that

* Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. ii. p. 407.
+ Id. vol. xxi. p. 383.
+ Population Abstracts, Parish Registers, p. 459.
§ Id. p. 458.

GG2

452 Of the Checks to Population Bk. i.

the mortality in these parishes was only 1 in 56,
and the proportion of births 1 in 44. But these
proportions are so extraordinary that it is difficult
to conceive that they approach near the truth.
Combining them with the calculations of Mr.
Wilkie, it will not appear probable that the pro-
portion of deaths and births in Scotland should be
smaller than what has been allowed for England
and Wales; namely, 1 in 40 for the deaths, and 1
in 30 for the births; and it seems to be generally
agreed that the proportion of births to deaths is
4 to 3.*

With respect to the marriages, it will be still
more difficult to form a conjecture. They are
registered so irregularly, that no returns of them
are given in the Population Abstract. I should
naturally have thought, from the Statistical Ac-
count, that the tendency to marriage in Scotland
was upon the whole greater than in Engiand; but
if it be true that the births and deaths bear the
same proportion to each other, and to the whole
population, in both countries, the proportion of
marriages cannot be very different. It should be
remarked, however, that supposing the operation
of the preventive check to be exactly the same in
both countries, and the climates to be equally
salubrious, a greater degree of want and poverty
would take place in Scotland, before the same

* Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. xxi. p- 383. The com-
parison with England here, refers to the time of the first enumera-
tion. There is little doubt that the mortality of Scotland has
diminished, and the proportion of births to deaths increased since
1800.

Chix. in Scotland and Ireland. 453

mortality was produced as in England, owing to
the smaller proportion of towns and manufactories
in the former country than in the latter.

From a general view of the statistical accounts
the result seems clearly to be, that the condition
of the lower classes of people in Scotland has been
considerably improved of late years. The price
of provisions has risen, but almost invariably the
price of labour has risen in a greater proportion ;
and it is remarked in most parishes, that more
butcher’s meat is consumed among the common
people than formerly; that they are both better
lodged and better clothed; and that their habits
with respect to cleanliness are decidedly improved.

A part of this improvement is probably to be
attributed to the increase of the preventive check.
In some parishes a habit of later marriages is
noticed ; and in many places, where it is not men-
tioned, it may be fairly inferred from the propor-
tion of births and marriages and other circum-
stances. The writer of the account of the parish
of Elgin,* in enumerating the general causes of
depopulation in Scotland, speaks of the discou-
ragement of marriage from the union of farms,
and the consequent emigration of the flower of
their young men, of every class and description,
very few of whom ever return. Another cause
that he mentions is the discouragement to mar-
riage from luxury; at least, he observes, till
people are advanced in years, and then a puny
race of children are produced. ‘* Hence how

* Volnv, pi I;

454 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

«many men of every description remain single?
“and how many young women of every rank are
“‘ never married, who in the beginning of this cen-
“tury, or even so late as 1745, would have been
“the parents of a numerous and healthy pro-
* geny 2”

In those parts of the country where the popu-
lation has been rather diminished by the introduc-
tion of grazing, or an improved system of hus-
bandry which requires fewer hands, this effect
has chiefly taken place; and I have little doubt
that in estimating the decrease of the population
since the end of the last, or the beginning of the
present century, by the proportion of births at the
different periods, they have fallen into the error
which has been particularly noticed with regard
to Switzerland and France, and have in conse-
quence made the difference greater than it really
ise

The general inference on this subject which I
should draw from the different accounts is, that
the marriages are rather later than formerly.
There are however some decided exceptions. In
those parishes where manufactures have been in-
troduced, which afford employment to children as
soon as they have reached their 6th or 7th year,

* One writer takes notice of this circumstance, and observes,
that formerly the births seem to have borne a greater proportion
to the whole population than at present. Probably, he says,
more were born, and there was a greater mortality. Parish of
Montquitter, vol. vi. p. 121.

Ch. x. in Scotland and Ireland. 455

a habit of marrying early naturally follows; and
while the manufacture continues to flourish and
increase, the evil arising from it is not very per-
ceptible; though humanity must confess with a
sigh, that one of the reasons why it is not so per-
ceptible is, that room is made for fresh families
by the unnatural mortality which takes place
among the children so employed.

There are other parts of Scotland however,
particularly the Western Isles, and some parts of
the Highlands, where population has considerably
increased from the subdivision of possessions ;
and where perhaps the marriages may be earlier
than they were formerly, though not caused by
the introduction of manufactures. Here the po-
verty which follows is but too conspicuous. In
the account of Delting in Shetland,* it is re-
marked that the people marry very young, and are
encouraged to do this by their landlords, who
wish to have as many men on their grounds as
possible, to prosecute the ling fishery; but that
they generally involve themselves in debt and
large families. The writer further observes, that
formerly there were some old regulations called
country acts, by one of which it was enacted, that
no pair should marry unless possessed of 40/.
Scots of free gear. This regulation is not now
enforced. It is said that these regulations were
approved and confirmed by the parliament of
Scotland in the reign of Queen Mary or James VI.

* Vol. i. p. 385.

456 Of the Checks to Population Bk. il.

In the account of Bressay Burra and Quarff in
Shetland,* it is observed that the farms are very
small, and few have a plough. The object of
the proprietors is to have as many fishermen on
their lands as possible—a great obstacle to im-
provements in agriculture. They fish for their
masters, who either give them a fee totally inade-
quate, or take their fish at a low rate. The writer
remarks, that “‘ in most countries the increase of
“‘ population is reckoned an advantage, and justly.
«« It is however the reverse in the present state of
“Shetland. The farms are split. The young
“men are encouraged to marry without having
“any stock. The consequence is poverty and
‘‘ distress. It is believed that there is at present
“in these islands double the number of people
“that they can properly maintain.”

The writer of the account of Auchterderran,t
in the county of Fife, says, that the meagre food
of the labouring man is unequal to oppose the
effects of incessant hard labour upon his consti-
tution, and by this means his frame is worn down
before the time of nattre’s appointment; and adds,
“« That people continuing voluntarily to enter upon
“such a hard situation by marrying, shews how
‘‘ far the union of the sexes and the love of inde-
** pendence are principles of human nature.” In
this observation, perhaps the love of independence

¥ ‘Volrx: p. 194.
+ Vol. i. p. 449

Ch. x. in Scotland and Ireland. 457

had better have been changed for the love of
progeny.

The island of Jura* appears to be absolutely
overflowing with inhabitants in spite of constant
and numerous emigrations. There are sometimes
50 or 60 on a farm. The writer observes, that
such a swarm of inhabitants, where manufactures
and many other branches of industry are unknown,
are a very great load upon the proprietors, and
useless to the state.

Another writer is astonished at the rapid in-
crease of population, in spite of a considerable
emigration to America in 1770, and a large drain
of young men during the late war. He thinks it
difficult to assign adequate causes for it; and ob-
serves, that, if the population continue to increase
in this manner, unless some employment be found
for the people, the country will soon be unable to
support them. And in the account of the parish
of Callander,} the writer says, that the villages of
this place, and other villages in similar situations,
are filled with naked and starving crowds of
people, who are pouring down for shelter or for
bread; and then observes, that whenever the po-
pulation of a town or village exceeds the industry
of its inhabitants, from that moment the place
must decline.

A very extraordinary instance of a tendency to

* Vol. xii. p. 317.
+ Parish of Lechalsh, county of Ross, vol. xi. p. 422.
{ Vol. xi. p. 574.

458 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

rapid increase occurs in the register of the parish
of Duthil,* in the county of Elgin; and as errors
of excess are not so probable as errors of omission,
it seems to be worthy of attention. The propor-
tion of annual births to the whole population is as
1 to 12, of marriages as 1 to 55, and of deaths the
same. The births are to the deaths as 70 to 15,
or 42 to 1. We may suppose some inaccuracy
respecting the number of deaths, which seems to
err on the side of defect; but the very extraordi-
nary proportion of the annual births, amounting
to 4, of the whole population, seems not to be
easily liable to error; and the other circumstances
respecting the parish tend to confirm the state-
ment. Out of a population of 830, there were
only three bachelors, and each marriage yielded
seven children. Yet with all this, the population
is supposed to have decreased considerably since
1745; and it appears that this excessive tendency
to increase had been occasioned by an excessive
tendency to emigrate. The writer mentions very
great emigrations ; and observes, that whole tribes,
who enjoyed the comforts of life in a reasonable
degree, had of late years emigrated from different
parts of Scotland, from mere humour, and a fan-
tastical idea of becoming their own masters and
freeholders.

Such an extraordinary proportion of births,
caused evidently by habits of emigration, shews
the extreme difficulty of depopulating a country

* Vol. iv. p. 308.

Ch. x. in Scotland and Ireland. 459

merely by taking away a part of its people. Take
but away its industry, and the sources of its sub-
sistence, and it is done at once.

It may be observed that in this parish the aver-
age number of children to a marriage is said to
be seven, though from the proportion of annual
births to annual marriages it would appear to be
only 42. This difference occurs in many other
parishes, from which we may conclude that the
writers of these accounts very judiciously adopted
some other mode of calculation, than the mere
uncorrected proportion of annual births to mar-
riages; and probably founded the results they
give, either on personal inquiries, or researches
into their registers, to find the number of children,
which had been born to each mother in the course
of her marriage.

The women of Scotland appear to be prolific.
The average of 6 children to a marriage is fre-
quent; and of 7, and even 74, not very uncommon,
One instance is very curious, as it appears as if
this number was actually living to each marriage,
which would of course imply, that a much greater
number had been and would be born. In the
parish of Nige,* in the county of Kincardine, the
account says, that there are 57 land families, and
405 children, which gives nearly 74+ each; 42
fisher families, and 314 children, nearly 74 each.
Of the land families which have had no children
there were 7; of the fishers, none. If this state-

* Vol. vii, p. 194.

460 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

ment be just, I should conceive that each marriage
must have yielded, or would yield, in the course
of its duration, as many as 9 or 10 births.

When from any actual survey it appears, that
there are about 3 living children to each marriage,
or 5 persons, or only 41 to a house, which are
very common proportions, we must not infer that
the average number of births to a marriage is not
much above 3. We must recollect, that all the
marriages or establishments of the present year
are of course without children, all of the year
before have only one, all of the year before
that can hardly be expected to have as many
as two, and all of the fourth year will certainly,
in the natural course of things, have less than
three. One out of five children is a very unusu-
ally small proportion to lose in the course of ten
years; and after ten years, it may be supposed
that the eldest begin to leave their parents; so
that if each marriage be supposed accurately to
yield 5 births in the course of its duration, the
families which had increased to their full comple-
ment would only have four children; and a very
large proportion of those which were in the earlier
stages of increase would have less than three ;*
and consequently, taking into consideration the
number of families where one of the parents may
be supposed to be dead, I much doubt whether in
this case a survey would give 44 to a family. In

* It has been calculated that, on an average, the difference of
age in the children of the same family is about two years.

Ch. x. in Scotland and Ireland. 461

the parish of Duthil,* already noticed, the number
of children to a marriage is mentioned as 7, and
the number of persons to a house as only 5.

The poor of Scotland are in general supported
by voluntary contributions, distributed under the
inspection of the minister of the parish; and it
appears, upon the whole, that they have been
conducted with considerable judgment. Having
no claim of right to relief,f and the supplies, from
the mode of their collection, being necessarily un-
certain, and never abundant, the poor have consi-
dered them merely as a last resource in cases of
extreme distress, and not as a fund on which they
might safely rely, and an adequate portion of
which belonged to them by the laws of their
country in all difficulties.

The consequence of this is, that the common
people make very considerable exertions to avoid
the necessity of applying for such a scanty and
precarious relief. It is observed, in many of the
accounts, that they seldom fail of making a pro-
vision for sickness and for age; and, in general,
the grown-up children and relations of persons,
who are in danger of falling upon the parish, step
forward, if they are in any way able, to prevent

* Vol. iv. p. 308.

+ It has lately been stated in Parliament, that the poor-laws of
Scotland are not materially different from those of England, though
they have been very differently understood and executed ; but,
whatever may be the laws on the subject, the practice is generally
as here represented ; and it is the practice alone that concerns the
present question.

462 Of the Checks to Population Bk. 1.

such a degradation, which is universally consi-
dered as a disgrace to the family.

The writers of the accounts of the different pa-
rishes frequently reprobate in very strong terms
the system of English assessments for the poor,
and give adecided preference to the Scotch mode
of relief. In the account of Paisley,* though a
manufacturing town, and with a numerous poor,
the author still reprobates the English system,
and makes an observation on this subject, in which
perhaps he goes too far. He says, that, though
there are in no country such large contributions
for the poor as in England, yet there is no where
so great a number of them; and their condition,
in comparison of the poor of other countries, is truly
most miserable.

In the account of Caerlaverock,} in answer to
the question, How ought the poor to be supplied ?
it is most judiciously remarked, ‘that distress and
‘poverty multiply in proportion to the funds
<‘ created to relieve them; that the measures of
‘“‘ charity ought to remain invisible, till the mo-
«‘ ment when it is necessary that they should be
‘“‘ distributed; that in the country parishes of
«« Scotland in general, small occasional voluntary
‘ collections are sufficient ; that the legislature has
“‘no occasion to interfere to augment the stream,
‘‘ which is already copious enough ; in fine, that
“ the establishment of a poor’s rate would not only

* Vol. vii. p. 74.
+ Id. vi. p. 21.

Ch. in Scotland and Ireland. 463

«be unnecessary but hurtful, as it would tend to
“ oppress the landholder, without bringing relief
“‘ on the poor.”

These, upon the whole, appear to be the pre-
vailing opinions of the clergy of Scotland. There
are, however, some exceptions; and the system
of assessments is sometimes approved, and the
establishment of it recommended. But thisis not
to be wondered at. In many ofthese parishes the
experiment had never been made; and without
being thoroughly aware of the principle of popu-
lation from theory, or having fully seen the evils
of poor-laws in practice, nothing seems, on a first
view of the subject, more natural than the pro-
posal of an assessment, to which the uncharitable,
as well as the charitable, should be made to con-
tribute according to their abilities, and which
might be increased or diminished, according to
the wants of the moment.

The endemic and epidemic diseases in Scotland
fall chiefly, as is usual, on the poor. The scurvy
is in some places extremely troublesome and in-
veterate ; and in others it arises to a contagious
leprosy, the effects of which are always dreadful,
and not unfrequently mortal. One writer calls it
the scourge and bane of human nature.* It is
generally attributed to cold and wet situations,
meagre and unwholesome food, impure air from
damp and crowded houses, indolent habits, and
the want of attention to cleanliness.

* Parishes of Forbes and Kearn, County of Aberdeen, yol. xi.
p- 189.

464 Of the Checks to Population BK. ii.

To the same causes, in a great measure, are at-
tributed the rheumatisms which are general, and
the consumptions which are frequent among the
common people. Whenever, in any place, from
particular circumstances, the condition of the poor
has been rendered worse, these disorders, parti-
cularly the latter, have been observed to prevail
with greater force.

Low nervous fevers, and others of a more vio-
lent and fatal nature, are frequently epidemic, and
sometimes take off considerable numbers; but the
most fatal epidemic, since the extinction of the
plague which formerly visited Scotland, is the
small-pox, the returns of which are, in many
places, at regular intervals; in others, irregular,
but seldom at a greater distance than 7 or 8 years.
Its ravages are dreadful, though in some parishes
not so fatal as they were some time ago. The
prejudices against inoculation are still great; and
as the mode of treatment must almost necessarily
be bad in small and crowded houses, and the cus-
tom of visiting each other during the disorder still
subsists in many places, it may be imagined that
the mortality must be considerable, and the chil-
dren of the poor the principal sufferers. In some
parishes of the Western Isles and the Highlands,
the number of persons to a house has increased
from 41 and 5, to64and7. It is evident, that if
such a considerable increase, without the proper
accommodations for it, cannot generate the dis-
ease, it must give to its devastations tenfold force
when it arrives.

Ch. x. tn Scotland and Ireland. 465

Scotland has at all times been subject to years
of scarcity, and occasionally even to dreadful fa-
mines. The years 1635, 1680, 1688, the con-
cluding years of the 16th century, the years 1740,
1756, 1766, 1778, 1782, and 1783, are all men-
tioned, in different places, as years of very great
sufferings from want. In the year 1680, so many
families perished from this cause, that for six
miles, in a well-inhabited extent, there was not a
smoke remaining.* The seven years at the end
of the 16th century were called the ill years. The
writer of the account of the parish of Mont-
quhittert says, that of 16 families, on a farm in
that neighbourhood, 13 were extinguished; and
on another; out of 169 individuals, only 3 families
(the proprietors included) survived. Extensive
farms, now containing a hundred souls, being en-
tirely desolated, were converted into a sheep-
walk. The inhabitants of the parish in general
were diminished by death to one-half, or, as some
affirm, to one-fourth of the preceding number.
Until 1709 many farms were waste.. In 1740,
another season of scarcity occurred; and the ut-
most misery was felt by the poor, though it fell
‘short of death. Many offered in vain to serve for
their bread. Stout men accepted thankfully two
pence a-day in full for their work. Great distress
was also suffered in 1782 and 1783, but none
died. ‘If at this critical period,” the author says,

* Parish of Duthil, vol. iv. p. 308.
¢ Vol. vi. p, 121.
VOL. I. H A

466 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

** the American war had not ceased ; if the copious
“‘ magazines, particularly of pease, provided for
“the navy, had not been brought to sale, what a
‘* scene of desolation and horror would have been
‘“‘ exhibited in this country !”

Many similar descriptions occur in different
parts of the Statistical Account; but these will
be sufficient to shew the nature and intensity of
the distress which has been occasionally felt from
want.

The year 1783 depopulated some parts of the
Highlands, and is mentioned as the reason why in
these places the number of people was found to
have diminished since Dr. Webster's survey. Most
of the small farmers in general, as might be ex-
pected, were absolutely ruined by the scarcity ;
those of this description in the Highlands were
obliged to emigrate to the Lowlands as common
labourers,* in search of a precarious support. In
some parishes, at the time of the last survey, the
effect of the ruin of the farmers, during this bad
year, was still visible in their depressed condition,
and the increased poverty and misery of the com-
mon people, which is a necessary consequence
of it.

In the account of the parish of Grange,f in the
county of Banff, it is observed, that the year 1783
put a stop to all improvements by green crops,
and made the farmers think of nothing but raising

* Parish of Kincardine, County of Ross, vol. iii. p. 505.
+ Vol. ix. p. 550.

Ch. x. in Scotland and Ireland. 467

grain. Tenants were most of them ruined. Be-
fore this period, consumptions were not near so
frequent as they have been since. This may be
justly attributed to the effects of the scarcity and
bad victual in the year 1783, to the long inclement
harvests in 1782 and 1787, in both which seasons
the labourers were exposed to much cold and wet
during the three months that the harvests con-
tinued; but principally to the change that has
taken place in the manner of living among the
lower ranks. Formerly every householder could
command a draught of small beer, and killed a
sheep now and then out of his own little flock ;
but now the case is different. The frequent want
of the necessaries of life among the poor, their
damp and stinking houses, and dejection of mind
among the middling classes, appear to be the
principal causes of the prevailing distempers and
mortality of this parish. Young people are cut
off by consumptions, and the more advanced by
dropsies and nervous fevers. |

The state of this parish, which, though there
are others like it, may be considered as an ex-
ception to the average state of Scotland, was,
without doubt, occasioned by the ruin of the
tenants; and the effect is not to be wondered at,
as no greater evil can easily happen to a country,
than the loss of agricultural stock and capital.

We may observe that the diseases of this parish
are said to have increased, in consequence of the
scarcity and bad victual of 1783. The same cir-
cumstance is noticed in many other parishes; and

HH 2

468 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii.

it is remarked, that though few people died of
absolute famine, yet that mortal diseases almost
universally followed.

It is remarked also, in some parishes, that the
number of the births and marriages is affected by
years of scarcity and plenty.

Of the parish of Dingwall,* in the county of
Ross, it is observed that, after the scarcity of
1783, the births were 16 below the average, and
14 below the lowest number of late years. The
year 1787 wasa year of plenty; and the following
year the births increased in a similar proportion,
and were 17 above the average, and 11 above the
highest of the other years.

In the account of Dunrossness,f in Orkney,
the writer says that the annual number of mar-
riages depends much on the seasons. In good
years they may amount to thirty or upwards;
but, when crops fail, will hardly come up to the
half of that number.

The whole increase of Scotland, since the time
of Dr. Webster's survey in 1755, is about 260,000,f
for which a proportionate provision has been made
in the improved state of agriculture and manufac-
tures, and in the increased cultivation of potatoes,
which in some places form two-thirds of the diet

* Vol. iii. p. i.
i Vol. vii. p. 391.

+ According to the returns in the enumeration of 1800, the whole
Shenton of Scotland was above 1,590,000, and therefore the
increase up to that time was above 320,000. In 1810 the popu-
lation was 1,805,688; and in 1820, 2,093,456.

Ch. x. in Scotland and Ireland. 469

of the common people. It has been calculated
that the half of the surplus of births in Scot-
land is drawn off in emigrations; and it cannot
be doubted that this drain tends greatly to relieve
the country, and to improve the condition of those
which remain. Scotland is certainly still over-
peopled, but not so much as it was a century
or half a century ago, when it contained fewer
inhabitants.

The details of the population of Ireland are but
little known. I shall only observe therefore, that
the extended use of potatoes has allowed of a very
rapid increase of it during the last century. But
the cheapness of this nourishing root, and the
small piece of ground which, under this kind of
cultivation, will in average years produce the
food for a family, joined to the ignorance and de-
pressed state of the people, which have prompted
them to follow their inclinations with no other
prospect than an immediate bare subsistence,
have encouraged marriage to such a degree, that
the population is pushed much beyond the in-
dustry and present resources of the country; and
the consequence naturally is, that the lower
classes of people are in the most impoverished and
miserable state. The checks to the population
are of course chiefly of the positive kind, and arise
from the diseases occasioned by squalid poverty,
by damp and wretched cabins, by bad and insuffi-
cient clothing, and occasional want. To these
positive checks have, of late years, been added

470 Of the Checks to Population, &c, Bk. ii.

the vice and misery of intestine commotion, of
civil war, and of martial law,

1825.

According to the late enumeration in 1821, the
population of Ireland amounted to 6,801,827, and
in 1695 it was estimated only at 1,034,000... If
these numbers be correct it affords an example
of continued increase for 125 years together, at such
a rate as to double the population in about 45.
years—a more rapid increase than has probably
taken place in any other country of Europe, during
the same length of time.

In the peculiar circumstances of Ireland, it
would be very interesting to know the average
mortality, and the proportions of births and mar-
riages to the population. But unfortunately no
correct parochial registers have been kept, and
the information, however much to be desired, is
unattainable.

(. 471.-)

CHAP. XI.
On the Fruitfulness of Marriages.

Ir would be extremely desirable to be able to
deduce from the registers of births, deaths and
marriages in different countries, and the actual po-
pulation with the rate of increase, the real pro-
lifickness of marriages, and the true proportion of
the born which lives to marry. Perhaps the
problem may not be capable of an accurate solu-
tion; but we shall make some approximation
towards it, and be able to account for some of the
difficulties which appear in many registers, if we
attend to the following considerations.

It should be premised, however, that in the
registers of most countries there is reason to be-
lieve that the omissions in the births and deaths
are greater than in the marriages; and conse-
quently, that the proportion of marriages is almost
always given too great. In the enumerations
which have lately taken place in this country, while
it is supposed with reason that the registry of
marriages is nearly correct, it is known with cer-
tainty that there are very great omissions in the
births and deaths; and it is probable that similar
omissions, though not perhaps to the same extent,
prevail in other countries,

472 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

If we suppose a country where the population
is stationary, where there are no emigrations,
immigrations, or illegitimate children, and where
the registers of births deaths and marriages are
accurate, and continue always in the same pro-
portion to the population, then the proportion of
the annual births to the annual marriages will
express the number of children born to each mar-
riage, including second and third marriages, and
when corrected for second and third marriages,
it will also express the proportion of the born
which lives to marry, once or oftener; while the
annual mortality will accurately express the ex-
pectation of life.

But if the population be either increasing or
decreasing, and the births, deaths and marriages
increasing or decreasing in the same ratio, such
a movement will necessarily disturb all the pro-
portions, because the events which are contem-
porary in the registers are not contemporary in
the order of nature, and an increase or decrease
must have been taking place in the interval.

In the first place, the births of any year cannot
in the order of nature have come from the con-
temporary marriages, but must have been derived
principally from the marriages of preceding years.
~ To form a judgment then of the prolifickness of
marriages taken as they occur, including second
and third marriages, let us cut off acertain period of
the registers of any country (30 years for instance)
and inquire what is the number of births which

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 473

has been produced by all the marriages included
in the period cut off. It is evident, that with
the marriages at the beginning of the period will
be arranged a number of births proceeding from
marriages not included in the period; and at the
end, a number of births produced by the mar-
riages included in the period will be found ar-
ranged with the marriages of a succeeding period.
Now, if we could subtract the former number,
and add the latter, we should obtain exactly all
the births produced by the marriages of the
period, and of course the real prolifickness of those
marriages. If the population be stationary, the
number of births to be added would exactly equal
the number to be subtracted, and the proportion
of births to marriages, as found in the registers,
would exactly represent the real prolifickness of
marriages. But if the population be either in-
creasing or decreasing, the number to be added
would never be equal to the number to be sub-
tracted, and the proportion of births to marriages
in the registers would never truly represent the
prolifickness of marriages. In an increasing po-
pulation the number to be added would evidenay
be greater than the number to be subtracted,

and of course the proportion of births to mar-
riages as found in the registers would always be
too small to represent the true prolifickness of
marriages. And the contrary effect would take
place in a decreasing population. The question
therefore is, what we are to add, and what to

474 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. 11.

subtract, when the births and deaths are not
equal.

The average proportion of births to marriages
in Europe is about 4:to 1. Let. us suppose, for
the sake of illustration, that each marriage yields
four children, one every other year.* In this
case it is evident that, wherever we begin the
period in the registers, the marriages of the pre-
ceding eight years will only have produced half
of their births, and the other half will be arranged
with the marriages included in the. period, and
ought to be subtracted from them. In the same
manner the marriages of the last eight years of
the period will only have produced half of their
births, and the other half ought to be added.
But half of the births of any eight years may be
considered as nearly equal to all the births of the
succeeding 32 years. In instances of the most
rapid increase it will rather exceed the births of
the next 34 years, and, in cases of slow increase,
approach towards the births of the next 4 years.
The mean therefore may be taken at 33 years.f
Consequently, if we subtract the births of the first
33 years of the period, and add the births of the
33 years subsequent to the period, we shall have

* Tn the statistical account of Scotland it is said, that the ave-
rage distance between the children of the same family has been
calculated to be about two years.

+ According to the rate of increase which has lately been
taking place in England (1802,) the period by calculation would,
be about 32 years.

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriuges. 475

a number of births nearly equal to the births
produced by all the marriages included in the
period, and of course the prolifickness of these
marriages. But if the population of a country be
increasing regularly, and the births, deaths and
marriages continue always to bear the same pro-
portion to each other, and to the whole popula-
tion, it is evident that all the births of any period
will bear the same proportion to all the births of
any other period of the same.extent, taken a cer-
tain number of years later, as the births of any
single year, or an average of five years, to the
births of a single year, or an average of five years,
taken the same number of years later; and the
same will be true with regard to the marriages.
And consequently, to estimate the prolifickness
of marriages, we have only to compare the mar-
riages of the present year, or average of five years,
with the births of a subsequent year, or average
of five years, taken 33 years later.

We have supposed, in the present instance,
that each marriage yields four births; but the
average proportion of births to marriages in Eu-
rope is 4 to 1;* and as the population of Europe
is known to be increasing at present, the proli-
fickness of marriages must be greater than 4. If,
allowing for this circumstance, we take the
distance of 4 years instead of 33 years, we
may not be far from the truth. And though

* The true proportion will be greater, if, as before stated, there

is reason to believe that in all registers the omissions in the births
and deaths are more numerous than in the marriages.

476 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

undoubtedly the period will differ in different
countries, yet it will not differ so much as we
might at first imagine; because in countries
where the marriages are more prolific, the births
generally follow at shorter intervals, and where
they are less prolific, at longer intervals; and
with different degrees of prolifickness, the length
of the period might still remain the same.*

It will follow icin these observations, that the
more rapid is the increase of population, the more
will the real prolifickness of marriages exceed the
proportion of births to marriages in the registers.

The rule which has been here laid down at-
tempts to estimate the prolifickness of marriages
taken as they occur; but this prolifickness should
be carefully distinguished from the prolifickness
of first marriages or of married women, and still
more from the natural prolifickness of women in
general taken at the most favourable age. It is
probable, that the natural prolifickness of women
is nearly the same in most parts of the world; but
the prolifickness of marriages is liable to be af-
fected by a variety of circumstances peculiar to
each country, and particularly by the number of
late marriages. In all countries the second and
third marriages alone form a most important con-

* In places where there are many migrations of people, the
calculations will of course be disturbed. In towns, particularly,
where there is a frequent change of inhabitants, and where
it often happens that the marriages of the people in the neigh-
bouring country are celebrated, the inferences from the proportion
of births to marriages are not to be depended on.

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 477

sideration, and materially influence the average
proportions. According to Sussmilch, in all Po-
merania, from 1748 to 1756 both included, the
number of persons who married were 56,956, and
of these 10,586 were widows and widowers.*
According to Busching, in Prussia and Silesia, for
the year 1781, out of 29,308 persons who married,
4,841, were widows and widowers,} and conse-
quently the proportion of marriages will be given
full one sixth too much. In estimating the proli-
fickness of married women, the number of illegi-
timate births { would tend, though in a slight
degree, to counterbalance the overplus of mar-
riages; and as it is found that the number of
widowers who marry again, is greater than the
number of widows, the whole of the correction
should not on this account be applied; but in
estimating the proportion of the born which lives
to marry from a comparison of the marriages with
the births or deaths, which is what we are now
about to proceed to, the whole of this correction
is always necessary.

It is obvious, in the second place, that the
marriages of any year can never be contem-
porary with the births from which they have
resulted, but must always be at such a dis-
tance from them as is equal to the average age

* Géttliche Ordnung, vol. i. tables, p. 98.

+ Sussmilch, vol. iii. tables, p. 95.

t In France, before the revolution, the proportion of illegiti-
mate births was z', of the whole number. Probably it is less in
this country.

478 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

of marriage. If the population be increasing,
the marriages of the present year have resulted
from a smaller number of births than the births of
the present year, and of course the marriages,
compared with the contemporary births, will al-
ways be too few to represent the proportion of
the born which lives to marry ; and the contrary
will take place if the population be decreasing ;
and, to find this proportion, we must compare the
marriages of any year with the births of a previ-
ous year at the distance of the average age vei
marriage.

But on account of the distance of this period,
it may be often more convenient, though it is not
essentially so correct, to compare the marriages
with the contemporary deaths. The average age of
marriage will almost always be much nearer to the
average age of death than marriage is to birth;
and consequently the annual marriages compared
with the contemporary annual deaths will much
more nearly represent the true proportion of the
born living to marry, than the marriages compared
with the births.* The marriages compared with

* Dr. Price very justly says (Observ, on Revers. Pay. vol. i.
p. 269. 4th. edit.) ‘* that the general effect of an increase while it
‘is going on in a country is to render the proportion of persons
*e marrying annually, to the annual deaths greater and to the an-
*€ nual births dess than the true proportion marrying out of any
** given number born, This proportion generally lies between the
“* other two proportions, but always nearest the first.’ In these
observations I entirely agree with him, but in a note to this pas-
sage he appears to me to fall into an error. He says, that if the
prolifickness of marriages be increased (the probabilities of life and

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. A79

the births, after a proper allowance has been
made for second and third marriages, can never
represent the true proportion of the born living
to marry, unless when the population is abso-
lutely stationary ; but although the population be
increasing or decreasing, the average age of mar-
riage may still be equal to the average of death ;
and in this case the marriages in the registers
compared with the contemporary deaths, (after the
correction for second or third marriages, ) will nearly
represent the true proportion of the born living to
marry.* Generally, however, when an increase

the encouragement to marriage remaining the same) both the annual
births and burials would increase in proportion to the annual wed-
dings. That the proportion of annual births would increase is
certainly true ; and I here acknowledge my error in differing from
Dr. Price on this point in my last edition ; but I still think that
the proportion of burials to weddings would not necessarily increasé
under the circumstances here supposed.

The reason why the proportion of births to weddings increases
is, that the births occurring in the order of nature considerably
prior to the marriages which result from them, their increase will
affect the register of births much more than the contemporary
register of marriages. But the same reason by no means holds
with regard to the deaths, the average age of which is generally
later than the age of marriage. And in this case, after the first
interval between birth and marriage, the permanent effect would
be, that the register of marriages would be more affected by the
increase of births than the contemporary register of deaths; and
consequently the proportion of the burials to the weddings would
be rather decreased than increased. From not attending to the
circumstance that the average age of marriage may often be con-
siderably earlier than the mean age of death, the general conclusion
also which Dr. Price draws in this note does not appear to be
strictly correct.

* The reader will be aware that, as all the born must die, deaths

480 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

of population is going forwards, the average age
of marriage is less than the average of death, and
then the proportion of marriages, compared with
the contemporary deaths, will be too great to re-
present the true proportion of the born living to
marry; and, to find this proportion, we must
compare the marriages of any particular year
with the deaths of a subsequent year at such a
distance from it in the registers, as is equal to the
difference between the average age of marriage
and the average age of death.

There is no necessary connection between
the average age of marriage and the average
age of death. In a country, the resources of
which will allow of a rapid increase of popula-
tion, the expectation of life or the average age of
death may be extremely high, and yet the age of
marriage be very early; and the marriages then,
compared with the contemporary deaths in the
registers, would (even after the correction for
second and third marriages) be very much too
great to represent the true proportion of the born
living to marry. In such a country we might
suppose the average age of death to be 40, and
the age of marriage only 20; and in this case,

may in some cases be taken as synonymous with births. If we
had the deaths registered of all the births. which had taken place
in a country during a certain period, distinguishing the married
from the unmarried, it is evident that the number of those who
died marvied, compared with the whole number of deaths, would
accurately express the proportion of the births which had lived to
mairy.

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 481

which however would be a rare one, the distance
between marriage and death would be the same
as between birth and marriage.

If we apply these observations to registers in
general, though we shall seldom be able to obtain
the true proportion of the born living to marry
on account of the proportions of births, deaths,
and marriages not remaining the same, and of our
not knowing the average age of marriage, yet we
may draw many useful inferences from the infor-
mation which they contain, and reconcile some
apparent contradictions ;. and it will generally be
found that, in those countries where the marriages
bear a very large proportion to the deaths, we
shall see reason to believe that the age of marriage
is much earlier than the average age of death.

In the Russian table for the year 1799, pro-
duced by Mr. Tooke, and referred to, p. 317,
the proportion of marriages to deaths appeared
to be as 100 to 210. When corrected for second
and third marriages, by subtracting one sixth
from the marriages, it will be as 100 to 252.
From which it would seem to follow, that out of
252 births 200 of them had lived to marry; but
we cannot conceive any country to be so healthy
as that 200 out of 252 should live to marry. If
however we suppose, what seems to be probable,
that the age of marriage in Russia is 15 years
earlier than the expectation of life or the average
age of death, then, in order to find the proportion
which lives to marry, we must compare the mar-
riages of the present year with the deaths 15 years

VOL. I. it

482 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

later. Supposing the births to deaths to be (as
stated p. 317) 183 to 100, and the mortality
1 in 50, the yearly increase will be about =, of
the population; and consequently in 15 years the
deaths will have increased a little above :28; and
the result will be, that the marriages, compared *
with the deaths 15 years later, will be as 100 to
322. Out of 322 births it will appear that 200
live to marry, which, from the known healthiness
of children in Russia, and the early age of mar-
riage, is a possible proportion. The proportion
of marriages to births, being as 100 to 385,
the prolifickness of marriages, according to the
rule laid down, will be as 100 to 411; or each
marriage will on an average, including second
and third marriages, produce 4°11 births.

The lists given in the earlier part of the chapter
on Russia are probably not correct. It is sus-
pected with reason, that there are considerable
omissions both in the births and deaths, but parti-
cularly in the deaths; and consequently the pro-
portion of marriages is given too great. There
may also be a futher reason for this large propor-
tion of marriages in Russia. The Empress Cathe-
rine, in her instructions for a new code of laws,
notices a custom prevalent among the peasants,
of parents obliging their sons, while actually
children, to marry full-grown women, in order to
save the expense of buying female slaves. These
women, it is said, generally become the mistresses
of the father; and the custom is particularly
reprobated by the Empress as prejudicial to

Ch. xi. Onthe Fruitfulness of Marriages. 483

population. This practice would naturally occa-
sion a more than usual number of second and
third marriages, and of course more than usually
increase the proportion of marriages to births in
the registers.

In the Transactions of the Society at Philadel-
phia (vol. iii. No. vil. p. 25,) there is a paper by
Mr. Barton, entitled Observations on the Probabi-
lity of Life in the United States, in which it appears,
that the proportion of marriages to births is as 1
to 41 He mentions indeed 6:, but his numbers
give only 41. As however this proportion was
taken principally from towns, it is probable that
the births are given too low; and I think we may
very safely take as many as five for the average
of towns and country. According to the same
authority the mortality is about 1 in 45; and if
the population doubles every 25 years, the births
would be about 1 in 20. The proportion of mar-
riages to deaths would on these suppositions be
as 1 to 22; and, corrected for second and third
marriages, as 1 to 2°7 nearly. But we cannot
suppose, that out of 27 births 20 should live to
marry. If however the age of marriage be ten
years earlier than the mean age of death, which
is highly probable, we must compare the mar-
riages of the present year with the deaths ten
years later, in order to obtain the true proportion
of the born which lives to marry. According to
the progress of population here stated, the increase
of the deaths in ten years would be a little above
‘3, and the result will be, that 200 out of 351, or

112

484 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. iu.

about 20 out of 35, instead of twenty out of 27,
will live to marry.* The marriages compared
with the births 4 years later, according to the rule
laid down, will in this case give 5:58 for the pro-
lifickness of marriages. The calculations of Mr.
Barton respecting the age to which half of the born
live, cannot possibly be applicable to America in
general. The registers, on which they are founded,
are taken from Philidelphia and one or two small

* If the proportions mentioned by Mr. Barton be just, the ex-
pectation of life in America is considerably less than in Russia,
which is the reason that I have taken only ten years for the dif-
ference between the age of marriage and the age of death, instead
of fifteen years, as in Russia. According to the mode adopted
by Dr. Price, (vol. i. p. 272,) of estimating the expectation of life
in countries the population of which is increasing, this expecta-
tion in Russia would be about 38, (births ;;, deaths ,, mean az),
and supposing the age of marriage to be 23, the difference would
be 15.

In America the expectation of life would, upon the same prin-
ciples, be only 323, (births, 5'5, deaths, ;'5, mean 354); and sup-
posing the age of marriage 224, the difference would be 10. ’

Since this was written, I have seen reason to believe, from some
calculations of Mr. Milne, actuary to the Sun Life Assurance So-
ciety, that Dr. Price’s mode of estimating the expectation of life
in countries that are increasing is by no means correct, and that
the true expectation of life in such countries lies very much nearer
the proportion of the annual mortality, than a mean between the
annual mortality and the proportion of annual births ; but I retain
the mean proportion in the calculations of this chapter, because I
find that this mean expresses more nearly the period when the
deaths will equal the present births, or accord with the present
marriages, than the distance of the expectation of life. Ina pro-
gressive country, where the annual births considerably exceed the
annual deaths, the period at which the annual deaths will equal the
present annual births is less distant than the expectation of life.

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 485

towns and villages, which do not appear’to be so |
healthy as the moderate towns of Europe, and
therefore can form no criterion for the country in
general.

In England the average proportion of marriages
to births appears of late years to have been about
100 to 350. If we add + to the births instead of
1, which in the chapter on the Checks to Popula-
tion in England, I conjectured might be nearly the
amount of the omissions in the births and deaths,
this will allow for the circumstance of illegitimate
births; and the marriages will then be to the
births as 1 to 4, to the deaths as 1 to 3.* Cor-
rected for second and third marriages, the pro-
portion of marriages to deaths will be as | to
3°6. Supposing the age of marriage in England
about 7 years earlier than the mean age of death,
the increase in these 7 years, according to the
present progress of population of >}, yearly,
would be :06, and the proportion. living to marry
would be 200 out of 381, or rather more than half.
The marriages compared with the births four
years later will give 4°136 for the prolifickness of
marriages.

These instances will be sufficient to shew the
mode of applying the rules which have been
given, in order to form a judgment, from registers,

* This applies to the state of population before 1800.
+ Births =\,, deaths 4, mean ,';; and on the supposition that
the age of marriage is 28, the difference would be 7.

486 Onthe Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

of the prolifickness of marriages, and the propor-
tion of the born which lives to marry; but it must
still be remembered that they are only approxi-
mations, and intended rather to explain apparent
difficulties, than to obtain results which can be
depended upon as correct.

It will be observed how very important the
correction for second and third marriages is.
Supposing each marriage to yield four births, and
the births and deaths to be equal, it would at first
appear necessary that, in order to produce this
effect, exactly half of the born should live to
marry ; but if, on account of the second and third
marriages, we subtract + from the marriages, and
then compare them with the deaths, the propor-
tion will be as 1 to 44; and it will appear that,
instead of one half, it will only be necessary that
2 children out of 44 should live to marry. Upon
the same principle, if the births were to the mar-
riages as 4 to 1, and exactly half of the born live
to marry, it might be supposed at first that the
population would be stationary; but if we sub-
tract + from the marriages; and then take the
proportion of deaths to marriages as 4 to 1, we
shall find that the deaths in the registers, com-
pared with the marriages, would only be as 34
to 1; and the births would be to the deaths as 4
to 34, or 12 to 10, which is a tolerably fast rate
_ of increase.

It should be further observed, that as a much
greater number of widowers marry again than of

Ch. xi. On the Fruttfulness of Marriages. 487

widows, if we wish to know the proportion of
males which lives to marry, we must subtract full
1from the marriages instead of 1*. According
to this correction, if each marriage yielded 4
births, it would only be necessary that two male
children out of 5 should live to marry in order _to
keep up the population; and if each marriage
yielded 5 births, less than one third would be ne-
cessary for this purpose; and so for the other cal-
culations. In estimating the proportion of males
living to marry, some allowance ought also to be
made for the greater proportion of male births.
Three causes appear to operate in producing
an excess of the births above the deaths: 1. the
prolifickness of marriages; 2. the proportion of
the born which lives to marry; and 3. the earli-
ness of these marriages compared with the ex-
pectation of life, or the shortness of a generation
by marriage and birth, compared with the passing
away of a generation by death. This latter cause
Dr. Price seems to have omitted to consider. For
though he very justly says that the rate of increase,
supposing the prolific powers the same, depends
upon the encouragement to marriage, and the ex-

* Of 28,473 marriages in Pomerania, 5,964 of the men were
widowers. Sussmilch, vol. i. tables, p. 98. And according to
Busching, of 14,759 marriages in Prussia and Silesia, 3,071 of the
men were widowers. Sussmilch, vol iii. tables, p. 95. Muret
calculates that 100 men generally marry 110 women. Mémoires
par la Société Economique de Berne. Aunée 1766, premicre
partie, page 30.

488 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

pectation of a child just born; yet in explaining
himself, he seems to consider an increase in the
expectation of life, merely as it affects the increase
of the number of persons who reach maturity and
marry, and not as it affects, besides, the distance
between the age of marriage and the age of death.
But it is evident that, if there be any principle of
increase, that is, if one marriage in the present
generation yields more than one in the next, in-
cluding second and third marriages, the quicker
these generations are repeated, compared with the
passing away ofa generation by death, the more
rapid will be the increase.

A favourable change in either of these three
causes, the other two remaining the same, will
clearly produce an effect upon population, and
occasion a greater excess of the births above the
deaths in the registers. With regard to the two
first causes, though an increase in either of them
will produce the same kind of effect on the pro-
portion of births to deaths, yet their effects on the
proportion of marriages to births will be in oppo-
site directions. The greater is the prolifickness
of marriages, the greater will be the proportion of
births to marriages; and the greater is the number
of the born which lives to be married, the less will
be the proportion of births to marriages.* Con-

* Dr. Price himself has insisted strongly upon this, (vol. i. p.
270. 4th edit.) and yet he says (p. 275) that healthfulness and pro-
lifickness are probably causes of increase seldom separated, and re-
fers to registers of births and weddings as a proof of it. But

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 489

sequently, if within certain limits, the prolitic-
ness of marriages and the number of the born
living to marry increase at the same time, the
proportion of births to marriages in the registers
may still remain unaltered. And this is the
reason why the registers of different countries,
with respect to births and marriages, are often
found the same under very different rates of in-
crease.

The proportion of births to marriages, indeed,
forms no criterion whatever, by which to judge of
the rate of increase. The population of a country
may be stationary or declining with a proportion
of 5 to 1, and may be increasing with some rapi-
dity with a proportion of 4 to 1. But given the
rate of increase, which may be obtained from other

though these causes may undoubtedly exist together, yet if Dr.
Price’s reasoning be just, such co-existence cannot possibly be in-
ferred from the lists of births and weddings. Indeed the two
countries, Sweden and France, to the registers of which he refers
as showing the prolifickness of their marriages, are known to be
by no means remarkably healthy ; and the registers of towns to
which he alludes, though they may show, as he intends, a want of
prolifickness, yet, according to his previous reasoning, show at the
same time great healthiness, and therefore ought not to be pro-
duced as a proof of the absence of both. The general fact that
Dr. Price wishes to establish may still remain true, that country
situations are both more healthy and more prolific than towns:
but this fact certainly cannot be inferred merely from lists of births
and marriages. With regard to the different countries of Europe,
it will generally be found, that those are the most healthy which
are the least prolific, and those the most prolific which are the
least healthy. The earlier age of marriage in unhealthy countries
is the obvious reason of this fact.

490 Onthe Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

sources, it is clearly desirable to find in the re-
gisters a small rather than a large proportion of
births to marriages ; because the smaller this pro-
portion is, the greater must be the proportion of
the born which lives to marry, and of course the
more healthy must be the country.

Crome* observes that, when the marriages of a
country yield less than 4 births, the population is
in a very precarious state; and he estimates the
prolifickness of marriages by the proportion of
yearly births to marriages. If this observation
were just, the population of many countries of
Europe would be in a precarious state, as in many
countries the proportion of births to marriages in
the registers is rather below than above 4 to 1.
It has been shown in what manner this proportion
in the registers should be corrected, in order to
make it a just representation of the prolifickness
of marriages; and if a large part of the born live
to marry, and the age of marriage be considerably
earlier than the expectation of life, such a pro-
portion in the registers is by no means incon-
sistent with a rapid increase. In Russia it has
appeared that the proportion of births to marriages
is less than 4 to 1; and yet its population in-
creases faster than that of any other nation in
Europe. In England the population increases
more rapidly than in France; and yet in England
the proportion of births to marriages, when allow-
ance has been made for omissions, is about 4 to l,

* Ueber die Bevolkerung der Europais. Staat. p. 91.

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 491

in France 44 to 1. To occasion so rapid a pro-
gress as that which has taken place in America, it
will indeed be necessary that all the causes of in-
crease should be called into action; and if the
prolifickness of marriages be very great, the pro-
portion of births to marriages will certainly be
above 4 to 1: but in all ordinary cases, where the
whole power of procreation has not room to ex-
pand itself, it is surely better that the actual in-
crease should arise from that degree of healthiness
in the early stages of life which causes a great
proportion of the born to live to maturity and to
marry, than from a great degree of prolifickness
accompanied by a great mortality. And conse-
quently in all ordinary cases a proportion of births
to marriages as 4, or less than 4, to 1 cannot be
considered as an unfavourable sign.

It should be observed that it does not follow
that the marriages of a country are early, or that
the preventive check to population does not pre-
vail, because the greater part of the born lives to
marry. In such countries as Norway and Swit-
zerland, where half of the born live to above 40, it
is evident that, though rather more than half live
to marry, a large portion of the people between
the ages of 20 and 40 would be living in an un-
married state, and the preventive check would ap-
pear to prevail to a great degree. In England it
is probable that half of the born live to above 35;*

_ * At present (1825), and for the last ten, or even twenty years,
there is reason to believe that half of the born live to 45 years.

492 Onthe Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii.

and though rather more than half live to marry,
the preventive check might prevail considerably
(as we know it does), though not to the same ex-
tent as in Norway and Switzerland.

The preventive check is perhaps best measured
by the smallness of the proportion of yearly births
to the whole population. The proportion of
yearly marriages to the population is only a just
criterion in countries similarly circumstanced, but
is incorrect where there is a difference in the pro-
lifickness of marriages or in the proportion of the
population under the age of puberty, and in the
rate of increase. If all the marriages of a country,
be they few or many, take place young, and be
consequently prolific, itis evident that, to produce
the same proportion of births, a smaller proportion
of marriages will be necessary; or with the same
proportion of marriages a greater proportion of
births will be produced. This latter case seems
to be applicable to France, where both the births
and deaths are greater than in Sweden, though
the proportion of marriages is nearly the same, or
rather less. And when, in two countries com-
pared, one of them has a much greater part of its
population under the age of puberty than the
other, it is evident that any general proportion of
the yearly marriages to the whole population will
not imply the same operation of the preventive
check among those of a marriageable age.

It is, in part, the small proportion of the popu-
lation under the age of puberty, as well as the in-

Ch. xi. On the I'ruitfulness of Marriages. 493

flux of strangers, that occasions in towns a greater
proportion of marriages than in the country,
although there can be little doubt that the pre-
ventive check. prevails most in towns. The con-
verse of this will also be true; and consequently
in‘such a country as America, where half of the
population is under sixteen, the proportion of
yearly marriages will not accurately express how
little the preventive check really operates.

But on the supposition of nearly the same
natural prolifickness in the women of most coun-
tries, the smallness of the proportion of births
will generally indicate, with tolerable exactness,
the degree in which the preventive check prevails,
whether arising principally from late, and conse-
quently unprolific, marriages, or from a large pro-
portion of the population above the age of puberty
dying unmarried.

That the reader may see at once the rate of in-
crease, and the period of doubling, which would
result from any observed proportion of births to
deaths, and of these to the whole population, I
subjoin two tables from Sussmilch, calculated by
Euler, which I believe are very correct. The first
is confined to the supposition of a mortality of 1
in 36, and therefore can only be applied to
countries where such a mortality is known to take
place. The other is general, depending solely
upon the proportion which the excess of the births
above the burials bears to the whole population,
and therefore may be applied universally to all

494 On the Fruttfulness of Marriages. Bk. it.

countries, whatever may be the degree of their
mortality. I have now also (1825) added a third
table as convenient on account of the custom of
decennial enumerations in this and some other
countries. It is calculated by the Rev. B. Bridge,
of Peter House, Cambridge, and shows the rate
of increase, or period of doubling, from the ob-
served per-centage increase of any ten years, sup-
_ posing such rate of increase to continue.

It will be observed that, when the proportion
between the births and burials is given, the period
of doubling will be shorter, the greater the mor-
tality ; because the births as well as deaths are
increased by this supposition, and they both bear
a greater proportion to the whole population than
if the mortality were smaller, and there were a
greater number of people in advanced life.

The mortality of Russia, according to Mr.
Tooke, is 1 in 58, and the proportion of births 1 in
26. Allowing for the omissions in the burials, if
we assume the mortality to be 1 in 52, then the
births will be to the deaths as 2 to 1, and the
proportion which the excess of births bears to the
whole population will be ,,.* According to
Table II. the period of doubling will, in this case,
be about 36 years. But if we were to keep the

* The proportions here mentioned are different from those which
have been taken from the additional table in Mr. Tooke’s second
edition ; but they are assumed here as more easily and clearly illus-
trating the subject.

Ch. xi. On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. 495

proportion of births to deaths as 2 to 1, and sup-
pose a mortality of 1 in 36, as in Table I, the
excess of births above the burials would be 4, of
the whole population, and the period of doubling
would be only 25 years.

496 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. ii-

TABLE I.

When in any country there are 103,000 persons living, and
the mortality is 1 in 36.

The proportion of the
excess of the births,JAnd therefore the pe-
to the whole popula-|riod of doubling will be
tion, will be

If the proportion of |Then the excess of the
deaths to births be as births will be

Gal ier seo 250 years.
| 12 555 ae 125 |
| 13 833 Tz0 833
114 1110 ae
| 15 1388 ah
16 1666 ah
10: 417 1943 et
| 18 2221 as
| 19 2499 a
20 2777 a
22 8332 ae
25 4165 sk
ps 5554 ab

TABLE II.

The proportion of the} The proportion of the 3
excess of births above] Periods of donbling in||excess of births above] Periods of doubling in
the deaths to the whole]years and tea thou-|/thedeaths tothe whole|years and ten thou-

lof the living. sandth parts. of the living. sanudth parts,
{10 7.2722 21 14.9000
Il 7.9659 22 15.5932
12 8.6595 238 16.2864

14 10.0465 25 17.6729
26 18.3662
11.4333 27 19.0594

5 10.7400

6

7 12.1266 28 19.7527
8

9

0

12.8200 [e239 20.4458
13.5133 30 21.1591

| 13 9.3530 | 24 16.9797
| {
1:4
1 | )
Ms 14.2066 |

Ch. xi. On the Fruitf{ulness of Marriages. 497

TABLE II. continued.

The proportion of th The proportion of the
excess of births boys Periods of doubling in}|excess of births above|Periods of doubling in
thedeaths tothe whole/years and ten thou-|\thedeathsto the whole|yeats and ten thon-

of the living. sandth parts, of the living. sandth parts.

(32 22.5255 (210 145.9072
| 34 23.9119 220 152.8387
36 25.2983 230 159.7702
| 38 26.6847 | 240 166.7017
1 a 40 28.0711 1:4 250 173.6332
*} 42 29.457 4 “") 260 180.5647
44, 30.8438 270 187.4961
| 46 32.2302 280 194.4275
| 48 43.6161 | 290 201.3590
50 35.0029 | 300 208.2905
( 55 38.4687 (310 215.2220
| 60 41.9345 320 222.1535
65 45.4003 330 229.0850
70 48.8661 | 340 236.0164
BRT WS 52.3318 1 S 350 242.9479
“} 80 55.7977 } 360 249.8794
85 59.2634 | 370 256.8109
| 90 62.7292 Sao 263.7425
| 95 66.1950 390 270.6740
L100 69.6607 400 277.6055
(110 76.5923 (410 284.5370
120 83.5230 4.20 291.4685
| 130 90.4554 430 298.4000
| 140 97.8868 | 440 305.3314
1 _j 150 104.3183 13 ! 450 312.2629
“) 160 111.2598 “) 460 319.1943
| 170 118.1813 470 326.1258
180 125.1128 480 333.0573
| 190 132.0443 | 490 339.9888
200 138.9757 500 846.9202

1: 1000 693.49.

VOL. T. KK

498 On the Fruitfulness of Marriages. Bk. 11.

TABLE III.
I. II. I. Il. I. II.
Per Per Per :
centage Period of centage Period of centage Period of
increasein| doubling. ||increasein} doubling. |jincreasein| doubling.
ten years. ten years. ten years.
Years. Years. Years.
1 696.60 16 46.70 30.5 26.03
1.5 465.55 16.5 4.5.38 31 25.67
2 3850.02 17 44,14 31.5 25.31
2.5 280.70 17.5 42.98 32 24.96
3 234.49 18 41.87 32.5 24.63
3.5 201.48 18.5 40.83 33 24.30
4, 176.73 19 39.84 33.5 23.99
4,5 157.47 19.5 38.91 34, 23.68
5 142.06 20 38.01 84.5 23.38
5.5 129.46 —_——|___-_——_]} 35 23.09
6 118.95 20.5 37.17 35.5 22.81
6.5 110.06 21 36.36 36 22.54
7 102.44 21.5 35.59 36.5 22.27
7.5 95.84 22 34.85 37 22.01,
8 90.06 22.5 34.15 87.5 21.76
8.5 84.96 23 33.48 38 21.52
9 80.43 23.5 32.83 38.5 21.28
~ 9.5 76.37 24 32.22 39 21.04
10 72.72 24.5 31.63 39.5 20.82
J ||| DG 31.06 40 20.61
10.5 69.42 25.5 30.51 <= | SS
11 66.41 26 29.99 41 20.17
11.5 63.67 26.5 29.48 42 19.76
12 61.12 27 28.99 43 19.37
12.5 58.06 27.5 28.53 44 19.00
18 56.71 28 28.07 45 18.65
13.5 54.73 28.5 27.65 46 18.31
14 52.90 29 27.22 A7 17.99
14.5 51.19 29.5 26.81 48 17.68
15 49.59 30 26.41 49 17.38

15,5 48.10 50 17.06

( 499 )

CHAP. XII.

Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Births, Deaths, and
Marriages.

It appears clearly from the very valuable tables
of mortality, which Sussmilch has collected, and
which include periods of 50 or 60 years, that all
the countries of Europe are subject to periodical
sickly seasons, which check their increase; and
very few are exempt from those great and wasting
plagues which, once or twice perhaps ina century,
sweep off the third or fourth part of their inhabi-
tants. The way in which these periods of mortality
affect all the general proportions of births, deaths,
and marriages, is strikingly illustrated in the
tables for Prussia and Lithuania, from the year
1692 to the year 1757.*

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. table xxi. p. 83 of the
tables.

Kk2

cluding the plague

1183820

304545

More born
than died

5 3 ’ = sie By Merce a
500) = Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.
TABLE IV.

Proportion of | Proportion of
Annual Average. |Marriages. Births. Deaths. pts - to see
5 y™to1697 | 5747 19715 14862 | 10: 34 |100 : 132
5 y*—1702 | 6070 24112 14474 | 10: 39 {100 : 165
6 y*—1708 | 6082 26896 16430 | 10: 44 |100 : 163
In 1709 &1710) a plague | yma ses | 247733
years.
In 1711 12028} 32522 10131 | 10: 27 |100 : 320
In 1712 6267| 22970 10445 | 10: 36 {100 : 220
5 ystol716 4968} 21603 11984 } 10: 43 |100: 186
5 y*®—1721 4324| 21396 12039 | 10: 49 |100: 177
5 y"—1726 4719) 21452 12863 | 10: 45 |100 : 166
5 y®—1731 4808) 29554 12825 | 10: 42 |100 : 160
4 y"—1735 5424) 22692 15475 | 10: 41 |100: 146
In 1736 5280) 21859 26371 Epidemic
In 1737 5765) 18930 24480 | years.
5 y™to1742 5582) 22099 15255 | 10: 39 j|100: 144
4 y"—i746 5469} 25275 15117 | 10: 46 {100 167
5 y"—1751 6423) 28235 17272 | 10: 43 |100 : 163
5 y"—1756 5599} 28892 19154 | 10: 50 |100 : 148
Inthe 16 y"be- ve as) = 1 :
fore the plague| 92585] 380516 | 245763 | 10 : 89 |100 : 154
In 46 y" after FE: :
thee plague 248777\1083872 | 690324 | 10: 43 100 : 157
In 62 good y"|344361 1464388 936087 | 10: 43 {100 : 156
936087
More born re
than died ogee
In the 2 plague Li
years 5477) 23977 | 247733
In all the 64 years in-|040838] 1488365 |1183820 | 10: 42 |100: 125

Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 501

The table, from which this is copied, contains
the marriages, births and deaths for every parti-
cular year during the whole period; but to bring
it into a smaller compass, I have retained only
the general average drawn from the shorter pe-
riods of five and four years, except where the
numbers for the individual years presented any
fact worthy of particular observation. The year
1711, immediately succeeding the great plague,
is not included by Sussmilch in any general
average; but he has given the particular numbers,
and if they be accurate they shew the very sudden
and prodigious effect of a great mortality on the
number of marriages.

Sussmilch calculates that above one third of
the people was destroyed by the plague; and
yet, notwithstanding this great diminution of the
population, it will appear by a reference to the
table, that the number of marriages in the year
1711 was very nearly double the average of the
six years preceding the plague.* To produce this

* The number of people before the plague, according to
Sussmilch’s calculations, (vol. i. ch. ix. sect. 173,) was 570,000,
from which if we subtract 247,733, the number dying in the
plague, the remainder, 322,267, will be the population after the
plague; which, divided by the number of marriages and the
number of births for the year 1711, makes the marriages about
one twenty-sixth part of the population, and the births about one
tenth part. Such extraordinary proportions could only occur in
any country in an individual year. If they were to continue, they
would double the population in less than ten years. It is possible
that there may be a mistake in the table, and that the births and
marriages of the plague years are included in the year 1711;

502 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. i.

effect, we may suppose that almost all who were
at the age of puberty were induced, from the
demand for labour and the number of vacant em-
ployments, immediately to marry. This immense
number of marriages in the year could not pos-
sibly be accompanied by a great proportional
number of births, because we cannot suppose
that the new marriages could each yield more
than one birth in the year, and the rest must come
from the marriages which had continued unbroken
through the plague. We cannot therefore be
surprised that the proportion of births to mar-
riages in this year should be only 2°7 to 1, or 27 to
10. But though the proportion of births to mar-
riages could not be great; yet, on account of the
extraordinary number of marriages, the absolute
number of births must be great; and as the
number of deaths would naturally be small, the
proportion of births to deaths is prodigious, being
320 to 100; an excess of births as great, perhaps,
as has ever been known in America.

In the next year, 1712, the number of marriages
must of course diminish exceedingly; because,
nearly all who were at the age of puberty
having married the year before, the marriages
of this year would be supplied principally by
those who had arrived at this age, subsequent to
the plague. Still, however, as all who were mar-

though as the deaths are carefully separated, it seems very strange
that it should be so. It is however a matter of no great import-

ance The other years are sufficient to illustrate the general prin-
ciple.

Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 503

riageable had not probably married the year
before, the number of marriages in the year 1712
is great in proportion to the population; and,
though not much more than half of the number
which took place during the preceding year, is
greater than the average number in the last period
before the plague. The proportion of births to
marriages in 1712, though greater than in the
preceding year, on account of the smaller com-
parative number of marriages, is, with reference
to other countries, not great, being as 3.6 to 1, or
3.6 to 10. But the proportion of births to deaths,
though less than in the preceding year, when so
very large a proportion of the people married, is,
with reference to other countries, still unusually
great, being as 220 to 100; an excess of births,
which, calculated ona mortality of 1 in 36, would
double the population of a country (according to
Table I. page 496) in 214 years.

From this period the number of annual mar-
riages begins to be regulated by the diminished
population, and of course to sink considerably
below the average number of marriages before
the plague, depending principally on the number
of persons rising annually to a marriageable state.
In the year 1720, about nine or ten years after
the plague, the number of annual marriages, either
from accident, or the beginning operation of the
preventive check, is the smallest; and it is at this
time that the proportion of births to marriages
rises very high. In the period from 1717 to
1721 the proportion, as appears by the table, is

504. Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.

49 to 10; and in the particular years 1719 and
1720, itis 50 to 10 and 55 to 10.

Sussmilch draws the attention of his readers
to the fruitfulness of marriages in Prussia after
the plague, and mentions the proportion of 50
annual births to 10 annual marriages as a proof
of it. There are the best reasons from the general
average for supposing that the marriages in
Prussia at this time were very fruitful; but cer-
tainly the proportion of this individual year, or
even period, is not a sufficient proof of it, being
evidently caused by a smaller number of mar-
riages taking place in the year, and not by a
greater number of births.* In the two years
immediately succeeding the plague, when the
excess of births above the deaths was so asto-
nishing, the births bore a small proportion to the
marriages; and according to the usual mode of
calculation, it would have followed that each
marriage yielded only 2°7 or 3°6 children. In
the last period of the table, (from 1752 to 1756,)
the births are to the marriages as 5 to 1, and in
the individual year 1756, as 6:1 to 1: and yet
during this period the births are to the deaths
only as 148 to 100, which could not have been
the case, if the high proportion of births to mar-
riages had indicated a much greater number of
births than usual, instead of a smaller number of
matriages.

The variations in the proportion of births to

* Sussmilch, Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. c. v. s. lxxxvi. p. 175.

Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 505

deaths, in the different periods of 64 years in-
cluded in the table, deserve particular attention.
If we were to take an average of the four years
immediately succeeding the plague, the births
would be to the deaths in the proportion of above
22 to 10, which, supposing the mortality to be
1 in 36, would double the population in twenty-
one years. If we take the twenty years from
1711 to 1731, the average proportion of the births
to deaths will appear to be about 17 to 10, a
proportion which (according to Table I. page 496)
would double the population in about thirty-five
years. But if, instead of 20 years, we were to
take the whole period of 64 years, the average
proportion of births to deaths turns out to be but
a little more than 12 to 10; a proportion which
would not double the population in less than 125
years. If we were to include the mortality of
the plague, or even of the epidemic years 1736
and 1737, in too short a period, the deaths might
exceed the births, and the population would ap-
pear to be decreasing.

Sussmilch thinks that,. instead of 1 in 36, the
mortality in Prussia, after the plague, might be
1 in 388; and it may appear perhaps to some of
my readers, that the plenty occasioned by such
an event ought to make a still greater difference.
Dr. Short has particularly remarked that an ex-
traordinary healthiness generally succeeds any
very great mortality ;* and I have no doubt that

* History of Air, Seasons, &e. vol. ii. p. 344.

506 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. u.

the observation is just, comparing similar ages
together. But, under the most favourable cir-
cumstances, infants under three years are more
subject to death than at other ages; and the ex-
traordinary proportion of children which usually
follows a very great mortality, counterbalances at
first the natural healthiness of the period, and pre-
vents it from making much difference in the ge-
neral mortality.

If we divide the population of Prussia after the
plague, by the number of deaths in the year 1711,
it will appear, that the mortality was nearly 1 in
31, and was therefore increased rather than di-
minished, owing to the prodigious number of
children born in that year. But this greater
mortality would certainly cease, as soon as these
children began to rise into the firmer stages of
life, and then probably Sussmilch’s observations
would be just. In general, however, we shall
observe that a great previous mortality produces
a more sensible effect on the births than on the
deaths. By referring to the table it will appear,
that the number of annual deaths regularly in-
creases with the increasing population, and nearly
keeps up the same relative proportion all the way
through. But the number of annual births is not
very different during the whole period, though in
this time the population had more than doubled
itself; and therefore the proportion of births to the
whole population, at first and at last, must have
changed in an extraordinary degree.

It will appear therefore how liable we should

Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 507

be to err in assuming a given proportion of births,
for the purpose of estimating the past population
of any country. In the present instance, it would
have led to the conclusion, that the population
was scarcely diminished by the plague, although
from the number of deaths it was known to be
diminished one third.

Variations of the same kind, though not in the
same degree, appear in the proportions of births,
deaths and marriages, in all the tables which
Sussmilch has collected; and as writers on these
subjects have been too apt to form calculations
for past and future times from the proportions of
a few years, it may be useful to draw the attention
of the reader to a few more instances of such
variations.

In the Churmark of Brandenburgh,* during 15
years, ending with 1712, the proportion of births
to deaths was nearly 17 to 10. For 6 years, end-
ing with 1718, the proportion sunk to 13 to 10;
for 4 years, ending with 1752, it was only 11 to
10; and for 4 years, ending with 1756, 12 to 10.
For 3 years, ending with 1759, the deaths very
greatly exceeded the births. The proportion of
the births to the whole population is not given;
but it is not probable that the great variations
observable in the proportion of births to deaths
should have arisen solely from the variations in
the deaths. The proportion of births to marriages
is tolerably uniform, the extremes being only 38

* Sussmilch’s Gottliche Ordnung, vol. i. tables, p, 88.

508 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.

to 10 and 35 to 10, and the mean about 37 to 10.
In this table no very great epidemics occur till
the 3 years beginning with 1757, and beyond this
period the lists are not continued.

In the dukedom of Pomerania,* the average
proportion of births to deaths for 60 years (from
1694 to 1756 both included) was 138 to 100; but
in some of the periods of six years it was as high
as 177 to 100, and 155 to 100. In others it sunk
as low as 124 to 100, and 130 to 100. The ex-
tremes in the proportions of births to marriages
of the different periods of 5 and 6 years, were 36
to 10 and 43 to 10, and the mean of the 60 years
about 38 to 10. Epidemic years appear to have
occurred occasionally, in three of which the deaths
exceeded the births; but this temporary diminu-
tion of population produced no corresponding
diminution of births, and the two individual years
which contain the greatest proportion of marriages
in the whole table occur, one in the year after, and
the other two years after epidemics. The excess
of deaths however was not great till the three
years ending with 1759, with which the table
concludes.

In the Neumark of Brandenburgh, ¢ for 60
years, from 1695 to 1756 both included, the ave-
rage proportion of births to deaths in the first 30
years was 148 to 100, in the last 30 years 127 to
100, in the whole 60 years 136 to 100. In some

* Sussmilch, vol. i. tables, p. 91.
T Id. p. 99.

Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 509

periods of 5 years it was as high as 171 and 167
to 100. In others as low as 118 and 128 to 100.
For 5 years ending with 1726, the yearly average
of births was 7012; for 5 years ending with 1746,
it was 6927, from which, judging by the births,
we might infer that the population had decreased
in this interval of 20 years ; but it appears from
the average proportion of births and deaths during
this period, that it must have considerably in-
creased, notwithstanding the intervention of some
epidemic years. The proportion of births to the
whole population must therefore have decidedly
changed. Another interval of 20 years in the
same tables gives a similar result, both with
regard to the births and marriages. The extremes
of the proportion of births to marriages are 34 to
10, and 42 to 10, the mean about 38 to 10. The
3 years beginning with 1757, were, as in the other
tables, very fatal years.

In the dukedom of Magdeburgh,* during 64
years ending with 1756, the average proportion
of births to deaths was 123 to 100; in the first
28 years of the period 142 to 100, and in the last
34 years only 112 to 100; during one period of
5 years it was as high as 170 to 100; and in two
periods the deaths exceeded the births. Slight
epidemics appear to be interspersed rather thickly
throughout the table. In the two instances, where
three or four occur in successive years and dimi-
nish the population, they are followed by an

* Sussmilch, vol. i. tables, p. 103.

510 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. ii.

increase of marriages and births. The extremes
of the proportions of births to marriages are 42 to
10 and 34 to 10, and the mean of the 64 years 39
to 10. On this table Sussmilch remarks, that
though the average number of deaths shews an
increased population of one third from 1715 or
1720, yet the births and marriages would prove
it to be stationary, or even declining. In drawing
this conclusion however, he adds the three epi-
demic years ending with 1759, during which both
the marriages and births seem to have diminished.

In the principality of Halberstadt,* the average
proportion of births to deaths for 68 years, ending
with 1756, was 124 to 100; but in some periods
of 5 years it was as high as 160 to 100, and in
others as low as 110 to 100. The increase in the
whole 68 years was considerable, and yet for 5
years ending with 1723, the average number of
births was 2818; and for 4 years ending with
1750, 2628, from which it would appear that the
population in 27 years had considerably dimi-
nished. A similar appearance occurs with regard
to the marriages during a period of 32 years. In
the 5 years ending with 1718, they were 727; in
the 5 years ending with 1750, 689. During both
these periods the proportion of deaths would have
shewn a considerable increase. Epidemics seem
to have occurred frequently ; and in almost all
the instances, in which they were such as for
the deaths to exceed the births, they were imme-

* Sussmilch, vol. i. tables, p. 108.

Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 511

diately succeeded by a more than usual propor-
tion of marriages, and in a few years by an
increased proportion of births. The greatest
number of marriages in the whole table occurs
in the year 1751, after an epidemic in the year
1750, in which the deaths had exceeded the births
above one third, and the four or five following
years contain the largest proportion of births.
The extremes of the proportions of births to mar-
riages are 42 to 10 and 34 to 10; the mean of
the 68 years 38 to 10.

The remaining tables contain similar results;
but these will be sufficient to shew the variations
which are continually occurring in the proportions
of the births and marriages, as well as of the
deaths, to the whole population.

It will be observed that the least variable of
the proportions is that which the births and mar-
riages bear to each other; and the obvious reason
is, that this proportion is principally influenced
by the prolifickness of marriages, which will not
of course be subject to great changes. We can
hardly indeed suppose, that the prolifickness of
marriages should vary so much as the different
proportions of births to marriages in the tables.
Nor is it necessary that it should, as another
cause will contribute to produce the same effect.
The births which are contemporary with the mar-
riages of any particular year, belong principally
to marriages which had taken place some years
before ; and therefore, if for four or five years a
large proportion of marriages were to take place,

512 Effects of Epidemics on Registers of Bk. 11.

and then accidentally for one or two years a
small proportion, the effect would be a large pro-
portion of births to marriages in the registers
during these one or two years; and on the con-
trary, if for four or five years few marriages com-
paratively were to take place, and then for one or
two years a great number, the effect would be a
small proportion of births to marriages in the
registers. This was strikingly illustrated in the
table for Prussia and Lithuania, and would be
confirmed by an inspection of all the other tables
collected by Sussmilch ; in which it appears that
the extreme proportions of births to marriages are
generally more affected by the number of mar-
riages than the number of births, and consequently
arise more from the variations in the disposition
or encouragement to matrimony, than from the
variations in the prolifickness of marriages.

The common epidemical years which are inter-
spersed throughout these tables, will not of course
have the same effects on the marriages and births
as the great plague in the table for Prussia; but
in proportion to their magnitude, their operation
will in general be found to be similar. From the
registers of many other countries, and particularly
of towns, it appears that the visitations of the
plague were frequent at the latter end of the 17th,
and the beginning of the 18th centuries.

In contemplating the plagues and sickly seasons
which occur in these tables after a period of rapid
increase, it is impossible not to be impressed with
the idea, that the number of inhabitants had in

Ch. xii. Effects of Epidemics on Registers, &c. 513

- these instances exceeded the food and the accom-
modations necessary to preserve them in health.
The mass of the people would, upon this sup-
position, be obliged to live worse, and a greater
number of them would be crowded together in
one house; and these natural causes would evi-
dently contribute to produce sickness, even though
the country, absolutely considered, might not be
crowded and populous. In a country even thinly
inhabited, if an increase of population take place
before more food is raised, and more houses are
built, the inhabitants must be distressed for room
and subsistence. If in the Highlands of Scotland,
for the next ten or twelve years, the marriages
were to be either more frequent or more prolific,
and no emigration were to take place, instead of
five to a cottage, there might be seven; and this,
added to the necessity of worse living, would
evidently have a most unfavourable effect on the
health of the common people.

VOL. I. LL

( 514)

CHAP. XIII.
General Deductions from the preceding View of Society.

Tuar the checks which have been mentioned are
the immediate causes of the slow increase of po-
pulation, and that these checks result principally
from an insufficiency of subsistence, will be evi-
dent from the comparatively rapid increase which
has invariably taken place, whenever, by some
sudden enlargement in the means of subsistence,
these checks have in any considerable degree been
removed.

It has been universally remarked that all new
colonies settled in healthy countries, where room
and food were abundant, have constantly made a
rapid progress in population. Many of the colo-
nies from ancient Greece, in the course of one or
two centuries, appear to have rivalled, and even
surpassed, their mother cities. Syracuse and
Agrigentum in Sicily, Tarentum and Locri in
Italy, Ephesus and Miletus in Lesser Asia, were,
by all accounts, at least equal to any of the cities
of ancient Greece. All these colonies had esta-
blished themselves in countries inhabited by savage
and barbarous nations, which easily gave place to
the new settlers, who had of course plenty of good
land. It is calculated that the Israelites, though

Ch. xiii. General Deductions, §c. 515

they increased very slowly while they were wan-
dering in the land of Canaan, on settling in a fer-
tile district of Egypt, doubled their numbers every
fifteen years during the whole period of their stay.*
But not to dwell on remote instances, the Euro-
pean settlements in America bear ample testimony
to the truth of a remark, that has never I believe
been doubted. Plenty of rich land to be had for
little or nothing, is so powerful a cause of popu-
lation, as generally to overcome all obstacles.

No settlements could easily have been worse
managed than those of Spain, in Mexico, Peru,
and Quito. The tyranny, superstition, and vices
of the mother country were introduced in.ample
quantities among her children. Exorbitant taxes
were exacted by the crown; the most arbitrary
restrictions were imposed on their trade; and
the governors were not behind hand in rapa-
city and extortion for themselves as well as their
masters. Yet under all these difficulties, the colo-
nies made a quick progress in population. The
city of Quito, which was but a hamlet of Indians,
is represented by Ulloa as containing fifty or sixty
thousand inhabitants above fifty years ago.f Lima,
which was founded since the conquest, is men-
tioned by the same author as equally or more po-
pulous, before the fatal earthquake in 1746. Mexico
is said to contain a hundred thousand inhabitants ;
which, notwithstanding the exaggerations of the

* Short’s New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 259, 8vo.
1750.
+ Voy. d’Ulloa, tom. i. liv. v. ch. v. p. 229, 4to. 1752.
LL 2

516 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.

Spanish writers, is supposed to be five times
greater than what it contained in the time of
Montezuma.*

In the Portuguese colony of Brazil, governed
with almost equal tyranny, there were supposed
to be, above thirty years ago, six hundred thou-
sand inhabitants of European extraction.t

The Dutch and. French colonies, though under
the government of exclusive companies of mer-
chants, still persisted in thriving under every dis-
advantage.{

But the English North-American colonies, now
the powerful people of the United States of Ame-
rica, far outstripped all the others in the progress
of their population. To the quantity of rich land
which they possessed in common with the Spanish
and Portuguese colonies, they added a greater
degree of liberty and equality. Though not with-
out some restrictions on their foreign commerce,
they were allowed the liberty of managing their
own internal affairs. The political institutions
which prevailed were favourable to the alienation
and division of property. Lands which were not
cultivated by the proprietor within a limited time,
were deciared grantable to any other person. In
Pennsylvania there was no right of primogeniture ;
and in the provinces of New England, the eldest
son had only a double share. There were no tithes
in any of the States, and scarcely any taxes.

* Smith’s Wealth of Nations, vol. ii. b. iv. ch. viii. p. 363.
+ Id. p. 365.
t Id. p. 368, 369.

Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 517

And on account of the extreme cheapness of good
land, and a situation favourable to the exportation
of grain, a capital could not be more advantage-
ously employed than in agriculture ; which, at the
same time that it affords the greatest quantity of
healthy work, supplies the most valuable produce
to the society.

The consequence of these favourable circum-
stances united, was a rapidity of increase almost
without parallel in history. Throughout all the
northern provinces the population was found to
double itself in 25 years. The original number
of persons which had settled in the four provinces
of New England in 1643, was 21,200. After-
wards it was calculated that more left them than
went to them. In the year 1760 they were in-
creased to half a million. They had, therefore, all
along doubled their number in 25 years. In New
Jersey the period of doubling appeared to be 22
years, and in Rhode Island still less. In the back
settlements, where the inhabitants applied them-
selves solely to agriculture, and luxury was not
known, they were supposed to double their num-
ber in fifteen years. Along the sea-coast, which
would naturally be first inhabited, the period. of
doubling was about 35 years, and in some of the
maritime towns the population was absolutely at
astand.* From the late census made in America,

* Price’s Observ. on Revers, Paym, vol. i. p. 282, 283, and vol.
ii. p. 260. I have lately had an opportunity of seeing some ex-
tracts from the sermon of Dr. Styles, from which Dr, Price has

518 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.

it appears that, taking all the States together, they
have still continued to double their numbers within
25 years;* and as the whole population is now so
ereat as not to be materially affected by the emi-
grations from Europe, and as it is known that, in
some of the towns and districts near the sea-coast,

the progress of population has been compara-
tively slow ; it is evident, that in the interior of
the country in general, the period of doubling
from procreation only must have been consider-
ably less than 25 years.

The population of the United States of America,
according to the fourth census, in 1820 ,was
7,861,710. We have no reason to believe that
Great Britain is less populous at present, for the
emigration of the small parent stock which pro-
duced these numbers. On the contrary, a certain
degree of emigration is known to be favourable

taken these facts. Speaking of Rhode Island, Dr. Styles says that, -
though the period of doubling for the whole colony is 25 years,

yet that it is different in different parts, and within land is 20 and

15 years. The population of the five towns of Gloucester, Situate,

Coventry, West Greenwich and Exeter, was 5033, A. D. 1748, and

6986, A. D. 1755 ; which implies a period of doubling of 15 years

only. He mentions afterwards, that the county of Kent doubles

in 20 years, and the county of Providence in 18 years.

* See an article in the Supplement to the Encyclopedia Britannica
on Population, p. 308 ; and a curious table, p. 310, calculated by
Mr. Milne, Actuary to the Sun Life Assurance Office, which strik-
ingly confirms and illustrates the computed rate of increase in the
United States, and shews that it cannot be essentially affected by
immigrations.

Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 519

to the population of the mother country. It has
been particularly remarked that the two Spanish
provinces, from which the greatest number of
people emigrated to America, became in conse-
quence more populous.

Whatever was the original number of British
emigrants which increased so fast in North Ame-
rica, let us ask, Why does not an equal number
produce an equal increase in the same time in
Great Britain? The obvious reason to be assigned
is the want of food ; and that this want is the most
efficient cause of the three immediate checks to
population, which have been observed to prevail
in all societies, is evident from the rapidity with
which even old states recover the desolations of
war, pestilence, famine, and the convulsions of
nature. They are then for a short time placed a
little in the situation of new colonies; and the ef-
fect is always answerable to what might be ex-
pected. If the industry of the inhabitants be not
destroyed, subsistence will soon increase beyond
the wants of the reduced numbers; and the in-
variable consequence will be, that population,
which before perhaps was nearly stationary, will
begin immediately to increase, and will continue
its progress till the former population is reco-
vered.

The fertile province of Flanders, which has
been so often the seat of the most destructive
wars, after a respite of a few years has always
appeared as rich and populous as ever. The un-

520 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.

diminished population of France, which has before
been noticed, is an instance very strongly in point.
The tables of Sussmilch afford continual proofs of
avery rapid increase after great mortalities ; and
the table for Prussia and Lithuania, which I have
inserted,* is particularly striking in this respect.
The effects of the dreadful plague in London, in
1666, were not perceptible 15 or 20 years after-
wards. It may even be doubted whether Turkey
and Egypt are upon an average much less popu-
lous for the plagues which periodically lay them
waste. Ifthe number of people which they con-
tain be considerably less now than formerly, it is
rather to be attributed to the tyranny and op-
pression of the governments under which they
groan, and the consequent discouragements to
agriculture, than to the losses which they sustain
by the plague. The traces of the most destructive
famines in China, Indostan, Egypt, and: other
countries, are by all accounts very soon oblite-
rated; and the most tremendous convulsions of
nature, such as volcanic eruptions and earth-
quakes, if they do not happen so frequently as to
drive away the inhabitants or destroy their spirit
of industry, have been found to produce but a
trifling effect on the average population of any
state.

It has appeared from the registers of different
countries, which have already been produced, that

* See p. 500.

Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 521

the progress of their population is checked by the
periodical, though irregular, returns of plagues
and sickly seasons. Dr. Short, in his curious
researches into bills of mortality, often uses the
expression—*“‘ terrible correctives of the redun-
dance of mankind ;” * and in a table of all the
plagues, pestilences and famines, of which he
could collect accounts, shews the constancy and
universality of their operation.

The epidemical years in his table, or the years
in which the plague or some great and wasting
epidemic prevailed, (for smaller sickly seasons
seem not to be included,) are 431,} of which 32
were before the Christian era.[ If we divide
therefore the years of the present era by 399, it
will appear, that the periodical returns of such
epidemics, to some countries that we are ac-
quainted with, have been on an average only at
the interval of about 44 years.

Of the 254 great famines and dearths enume-
rated in the table, 15 were before the Christian
era,§ beginning with that which occurred in Pa-
lestine, in the time of Abraham. If, subtracting
these 15, we divide the years of the present era
by the remainder, it will appear that the average
interval between the visits of this dreadful scourge
has been only about 72 years.

* New Observ. on Bills of Mortality, p. 96.
+ Hist. of Air, Seasons, &c. vol. ii. p- 366.
¢ Id. vol. ii. p. 202.

§ Hist. of Air, Seasons, &c, vol. ii. p. 206.

522 General Deductions from the Bk. 11.

How far these “ terrible correctives to the
redundance of mankinc” have been occasioned
by the too rapid increase of population, is a point
which it would be very difficult to determine with
any degree of precision. The causes of most of
our diseases appear to us to be so mysterious,
and probably are really so various, that it would
be rashness to lay too much stress on any single
one; but it will not perhaps be too much to say,
that among these causes we ought certainly to
rank crowded houses and insufficient or unwhole-
some food, which are the natural consequences of
an increase of population faster than the accom-
modations of a country with respect to habitations
and food will allow.

Almost all the histories of epidemics, which we
possess, tend to confirm this supposition, by
describing them in general as making their prin-
cipal ravages among the lower classes of people.
In Dr. Short’s tables this circumstance is fre-
quently mentioned ;* and it further appears that
a very considerable proportion of the epidemic
years either followed or were accompanied by
seasons of dearth and bad food.t In other
places he also mentions great plagues as dimi-
nishing particularly the numbers of the lower or
servile sort of people;{ and in speaking of dif-

* Hist. of Air, Seasons, &c. vol. ii. p. 206. et seq.
t Id. vol. ii. p. 206. et seq. and 336.
+ New Obsery. p. 125.

Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 523

ferent diseases he observes that those which are
occasioned by bad and unwholesome food gene-
rally last the longest.*

We know from constant experience, that fevers
are generated in our jails, our manufactories, our
crowded workhouses and in the narrow and close
streets of our large towns; all which situations
appear to be similar in their effects to squalid
poverty ; and we cannot doubt that causes of this
kind, aggravated in degree, contributed to the
production and prevalence of those great and
wasting plagues formerly so common in Europe,
but which now, from the mitigation of these
causes, are every where considerably abated, and
in many places appear to be completely extir-
pated.

Of the other great scourge of mankind, famine,
it may be observed that it is not in the nature of
things, that the increase of population should
absolutely produce one. This increase, though
rapid, is necessarily gradual; and as the human
frame cannot be supported, even for a very short
time, without food, it is evident, that no more
human beings can grow up than there is provision
to maintain. But though the principle of po-
pulation cannot absolutely produce a famine, it
prepares the way for one; and by frequently
obliging the lower classes of people to subsist
nearly on the smallest quantity of food that will

* New Observ. p. 108.

524 General Deductions from the Bk. 11.

support life, turns even a slight deficiency from
the failure of the seasons into a severe dearth ;
and may be fairly said, therefore, to be one of
the principal causes of famine. Among the signs
of an approaching dearth, Dr. Short mentions
one or more years of luxuriant crops together;*
and this observation is probably just, as we know
that the general effect of years of cheapness and
abundance is to dispose a great number of per-
sons to marry; and under such circumstances
the return to a year merely of an average crop
might produce a scarcity.

The small-pox, which may be considered as
the most prevalent and fatal epidemic in Europe,
is of all others, perhaps, the most difficult to ac-
count for, though the periods of its returns are
in many places regular.f Dr. Short observes,
that from the histories of this disorder it seems to
have very little dependence upon the past or
present constitution of the weather or seasons,
and that it appears epidemically at all times and
in all states of the air, though not so frequently in
a hard frost. We know of no instances, I believe,
of its being clearly generated under any circum-
stances of situation. I do not mean therefore to
insinuate that poverty and crowded houses ever
absolutely produced it; but I may be allowed to
remark, that in those places where its returns are

* Hist. of Air, Seasons, &c. vol. ii. p. 367.
t Id, vol. ii. p. 411.

Ch. xii. preceding View of Society. 525

regular, and its ravages among children, particu-
larly among those of the lower class, are consi-
derable, it necessarily follows that these circum-
stances, in a greater degree than usual, must always
precede and accompany its appearance ; that is,
from the time of its last visit, the average number
of children will be increasing, the people will, in
consequence, be growing poorer, and the houses
will be more crowded till another visit removes
this superabundant population.

In all these cases, how little soever force we
may be disposed to attribute to the effects of the
principle of population in the actual production of
disorders, we cannot avoid allowing their force
as predisposing causes to the reception of conta-
gion, and as giving very great additional force to
the extensiveness and fatality of its ravages.

It is observed by Dr. Short that a severe mortal
epidemic is generally succeeded by an uncommon
healthiness, from the late distemper having car-
ried off most of the declining and worn out con-
stitutions.* It is probable, also, that another cause
of it may be the greater plenty of room and food,
and the consequently meliorated condition of the
lower classes of the people. Sometimes, according
to Dr. Short, a very fruitful year is followed by a
very mortal and sickly one, and mortal ones often
succeeded by very fruitful, as if Nature sought
either to prevent or quickly repair the loss by

* Hist. of Air, Seasons, &c. vol. ii. p. 344.

526 General Deductions from the Bk, ii.

death. In general the next year after sickly and
mortal ones is prolific in proportion to the breeders
left.*

This last effect we have seen most strikingly
exemplified in the table for Prussia and Lithuania.
And from this and other tables of Sussmilch, it
also appears that, when the increasing produce of
a country and the increasing demand for labour,
so far meliorate the condition of the labourer as
greatly to encourage marriage, the custom of early
marriages is generally continued, till the popula-
tion has gone beyond the increased produce, and
sickly seasons appear to be the natural and ne-
cessary consequence. The continental registers
exhibit many instances of rapid increase, inter-
rupted in this manner by mortal diseases; and
the inference seems to be, that those countries
where subsistence is increasing sufficiently to
encourage population, but not to answer all its
demands, will be more subject to periodical epi-
demics, than those where the increase of popula-
tion is more nearly accommodated to the average
produce.

The converse of this will of course be true. In
those countries which are subject to periodical
sicknesses, the increase of population, or the ex-
cess of births above the deaths, will be greater in
the intervals of these periods than is usual in

* New Observ. p. 191.
+ Id. p. 500.

Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 527

countries not so much subject to these diseases.
If Turkey and Egypt have been nearly stationary
in their average population for the last century, in
the intervals of their periodical plagues, the births
must have exceeded the deaths in a much greater
proportion than in such countries as France and
England.

It is for these reasons that no estimates of future
population or depopulation, formed from any exist-
ing rate of increase or decrease, can be depended
upon. Sir William Petty calculated that in the
year 1800 the city of London would contain
5,359,000* inhabitants, instead of which it does
not now contain a fifth part of that number.
Mr. Eaton has lately prophesied the extinc-
tion of the population of the Turkish empire in
another century,{ an event which will certainly
fail of taking place. If America were to con-
tinue increasing at the same rate as at present
for the next 150 years, her population would ex-
ceed the population of China; but though pro-
phecies are dangerous, I will venture to say
that such an increase will not take place in that
time, though it may perhaps in five or six hundred
years.

Europe was without doubt formerly more sub-
ject to plagues and wasting epidemics than at pre-
sent; and this will account, in a great measure,

* Political Arithmetic, p. 17.
+ Survey of the Turkish Empire, c. vii. p. 281.

528 General Deductions from the Bk. ii.

for the greater proportion of births to deaths in
former times, mentioned by many authors; as
it has always been a common practice to esti-
mate these proportions from too short. periods,
and generally to reject the years of plague as ac-
cidental.

The average proportion of births to deaths in
England during the last century may be considered
as about 12 to 10, or 120 to 100. The proportion in
France for ten years, ending in 1780, was about
115 to 100.* Though these proportions undoubt-
edly varied at different periods during the century,
yet we have reason to think that they did not vary
in any very considerable degree; and it will ap-
pear therefore, that the population of France and
England had accommodated itself more nearly to
the average produce of each country than many
other states. The operation of the preventive
check—wars—the silent though certain destruc-
tion of life in large towns and manufactories—and
the close habitations and insufficient food of many
of the poor—prevent population from outrunning
the means of subsistence; and, if I may use an
expression which certainly at first appears strange,
supersede the necessity of great and ravaging epi-
demics to destroy what isredundant. Ifa wasting
plague were to sweep off two millions in England,
and six millions in France, it cannot be doubted
that, after the inhabitants had recovered from the

* Necker de l’Administration des Finances, tom. i. c. ix. p. 255.

Ch. xii. preceding View of Society. 529

dreadful shock, the proportion of births to deaths
would rise much above the usual average in either
country during the last century.

In New Jersey the proportion of births to deaths,
on an average of 7 years, ending with 1743, was
300 to 100. In France and England the average
proportion cannot be reckoned at more than 120
to 100. Great and astonishing as this difference
is, we ought not to be so wonder-struck at it, as
to attribute it to the miraculous interposition of
Heaven. The causes of it are not remote, latent
and mysterious, but near us, round about us, and
open to the investigation of every inquiring mind.
It accords with the most liberal spirit of philoso-
phy to believe that no stone can fall, or plant rise,
without the immediate agency of divine power.
But we know from experience, that these opera-
tions of what we call nature have been conducted
almost invariably according to fixed laws. And
since the world began, the causes of population
and depopulation have been probably as constant
as any of the laws of nature with which we are
acquainted.

The passion between the sexes has appeared in
every age to be so nearly the same, that it may
always be considered, in algebraic language, as
a given quantity. The great law of necessity,
which prevents population from increasing in any
country beyond the food which it can either pro-
duce or acquire, is a law so open to our view, so
obvious and evident to our understandings, that

VOL. I. MM

530 General Deductions from the Bk. i.

we cannot for a moment doubt it. The different
modes which nature takes to repress a redundant
population, do not indeed appear to us so certain
and regular; but though we cannot always pre-
dict the mode, we may with certainty predict the
fact. If the proportion of the births to the deaths
for a few years indicates an increase of numbers
much beyond the proportional increased or ac-
quired food of the country, we may be perfectly
certain that, unless an emigration take place, the
deaths wiil shortly exceed the births, and that the .
increase which had been observed. for a few years
cannot be the real average increase of the popula-
tion of the country. If there were no other de-
populating causes, and if the preventive check
did not operate very strongly, every country would
without doubt be subject to periodical plagues and
famines.

The only true criterion of a real and permanent
increase in the population of any country, is the
increase of the means of subsistence. But even
this criterion is subject to some slight variations,
which however are completely open to our obser-
vation. In some countries population seems to
have been forced; that is, the people have been
habituated by degrees to live almost upon the
smallest possible quantity of food. There musthave
been periods in such countries, when population in- -
creased permanently without an increase in the
means of subsistence. China, India and the coun-
tries possessed by the Bedoween Arabs, as we have
seen in the former part of this work, appear to an-

Ch. xiil. preceding View of Society. 531

swer to this description. The average produce of
these countries seems to be but barely sufficient
to support the lives of the inhabitants, and of course
any deficiency from the badness of the seasons must
be fatal. Nations in this state must necessarily
be subject to famines.

In America, where the reward of labour is at
present so liberal, the lower classes might retrench
very considerably in a year of scarcity, without
materially distressing themselves. A famine there-
fore seems to be almost impossible. It may be
expected, that in the progress of the population
of America, the labourers will in time be much
less liberally rewarded. The numbers will in this
case permanently increase, without a proportional
increase in the means of subsistence.

In the different countries of Europe there must
be some variations in the proportion of the num-
ber of inhabitants, and the quantity of food con-
sumed, arising from the different habits of living
which prevail in each state. The labourers in the
south of England are so accustomed to eat fine
wheaten bread, that they will suffer themselves
to be half starved before they will submit to live
like the Scotch peasants.

They might perhaps, in time, by the constant
operation of the hard law of necessity, be reduced
to live even like the lower classes of the Chinese,
and the country would then with the same quan-
tity of food support a greater population. But to
effect this must always be a difficult, and every
friend to humanity will hope, an abortive attempt.

MM 2

032 General Deductions from the Bk. u.

I have mentioned some cases where population
may permanently increase without a proportional
increase in the means of subsistence. But it is
evident that the variation in different states be-
tween the food and the numbers supported by it
is restricted to a limit beyond which it cannot
pass. In every country, the population of which
is not absolutely decreasing, the food must be
necessarily sufficient to support and continue the
race of labourers.

Other circumstances being the same, it may be
affirmed that countries are populous according to
the quantity of human food which they produce
or can acquire; and happy, according to the
liberality with which this food is divided, or the
quantity which a day’s labour will purchase.
Corn countries are more populous than pasture
countries, and rice countries more populous than
corn countries. But their happiness does not
depend either upon their being thinly or fully in-
habited, upon their poverty or their riches, their
youth or their age; but on the proportion which
the population and the food bear to each other.

This proportion is generally the most favour-
able in new colonies, where the knowledge and
industry of an old state operate on the fertile un-
appropriated land of a new one. In other cases
the youth or the age ofa state is not, in this re-
spect, of great importance. It is probable that
the food of Great Britain is divided in more
liberal shares to her inhabitants at the present
period, than it was two thousand, three thousand,

Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 533

or four thousand years ago. And it has appeared
that the poor and thinly-inhabited tracts of the
Scotch Highlands are more distressed by a redun-
dant population than the most populous parts of
Europe.

If a country were never to be overrun by a peo-
ple more advanced in arts, but left to its own na-
tural progress in civilization; from the time that
its produce might be considered as an unit, to the
time that it might be considered as a million,
during the lapse of many thousand years, there
might not be a single period when the mass of
the people could be said to be free from distress,
either directly or indirectly, for want of food. In
every state in Europe, since we have first had
accounts of it, millions and millions of human ex-
istences have been repressed from this simple
cause, though perhaps in some of these states an
absolute famine may never have been known.

Must it not then be acknowledged by an atten-
tive examiner of the histories of mankind, that, in
every age and in every state in which man has
existed or does now exist,

The increase of population is necessarily limited
by the means of subsistence:

Population invariably increases when the means
of subsistence increase,* unless prevented by
powerful and obvious checks :

* By an increase in the means of subsistence, as the expression
is used here, is always meant such an increase as the mass of the
population can command ; otherwise it can be of no avail in en-
couraging an increase of people.

534 General Deductions from the Bk..ii.

These checks, and the checks which keep the
population down to the level of the means of sub-
sistence, are moral restraint, vice, and misery ?

In comparing the state of society which has
been considered in this second book with that
which formed the subject of the first, I think it
appears that in modern Europe the positive
checks to population prevail less, and the preven-
tive checks more than in past times, and in the
more uncivilized parts of the world.

War, the predominant check to the population
of savage nations, has certainly abated, even in-
cluding the late unhappy revolutionary contests ;
and since the prevalence of a greater degree of
personal cleanliness, of better modes of clearing
and building towns, and of a more equable distri-
bution of the products of the soil from improving
knowledge in political economy, plagues, violent
diseases and famines have been certainly miti-
gated, and have become less frequent.

With regard to the preventive check to popula-
tion, though it must be acknowledged that that
branch of it which comes under the head of moral
restraint,* does not at present prevail much
among the male part of society; yet I am
strongly disposed to believe that it prevails more
than in those states which were first considered ;
and it can scarcely be doubted that in modern
Europe a much larger proportion of women pass —

* The reader will recollect the confined sense in which I use
this term.

Ch. xiii. preceding View of Society. 535

a considerable part of their lives in the exercise

of this virtue, than in past times and among un-
civilized nations. But however this may be, if
we consider only the general term which implies
principally a delay of the marriage union from
prudential considerations, without reference to «+
consequences, it may be considered in this light

as the most powerful of the checks, which in
modern Europe keep down the population to the
level of the means of subsistence.

END OF VOL. I.

LONDON:

PRINTED BY C. ROWORTH, BELL YARD,
TEMVLE BAR.

A D\0%

mp fier wat? sane. Of
i snot Ea

pine ade dived .epmdatatua tockdssat odd te ta
"is fee anti “pbecic Mb 1h temmpelil
o Rage amas: Wein cect ik ob dela
Beate tt WO per Fee) tet ae ae
et elves: eee ER LAU ks
pone: MT oa ES ats
eg Bi es “3 eae, ee
vis age Die ae ‘ie ngiiot
ee i pcohiety see aR paity

ae aisle par eet Eee. Pai

eo See