s 363.7394 H2ebnd EVALUATION OF THE BENEFITS OF NUTRIENT REDUCTIONS ON ALGAL LEVELS IN THE CLARK FORK RIVER FINAL REPORT SUBMITTED JUNE 30, 1991 BY STATE DOCUMENTS COLLECTIOl. JAn 2 8 2002 MONTANA STATE LIB;,, . v 1515 E eth AVr HELEN.' ^-^ '^""' ■" DR. VICKI WATSON, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA TO MONTANA DEPT. HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES MR. GARY INGMAN, PROJECT EVALUATOR MONTANA STATE LIBRARY S 363 7394 H2ebnd 1 99 1 c.2 Watson Evaluation ol benelits of nutrient reduc 0864 00077848 TABLE OF CONTENTS BENEFITS OF THE MISSOULA PHOSPHATE BAN — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i NUTRIENT LIMITATION IN THE UPPER CLARK FORK — EXEC SUMMARY iii BENEFITS OF THE MISSOULA PHOSPHATE BAN 1 TABLES 7 FIGURES 8 APPENDIX N — NUTRIENT SAMPLING ON THE CLARK FORK RIVER, SUMMER 1990 APPENDIX T — UPPER RIVER RECIPROCAL TRANSPLANT STUDY APPENDIX M — DESCRIPTION OF THE RIVER ALGAE ACCUMULATION MODEL PERISIM Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from IVIontana State Library http://www.archive.org/details/evaluationofbene1991wats BENEFITS OF THE MISSOULA P BAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Attached algae in the Clark Fork River exceed aesthetic nuisance levels set by British Columbia and interfere with recreation. Algal respiratory demands contribute to night time violations of Montana water quality standards for dissolved oxygen. In an effort to control algal levels by controlling nutrient loading, the city of Missoula banned phosphate-based laundry detergents, reducing P loading from this major point source almost 50%. To evaluate the benefits of this ban, a study of river algae accumulation was conducted. It was not possible to base this evaluation on a comparison of preban and postban algal levels because preban data were from a low flow year while post ban data were from an average flow year. In addition preban data included only one site above the point source (insufficient site replication) , and the three down stream sites had nutrient levels that approached or exceeded the point that saturates algal standing crop. Little improvement was expected at these sites; most improvement was expected further downstream where reduction in lower nutrient levels should result in greater reductions in algae. No preban data were available for these sites. Hence the evaluation was accomplished by using a computer model that simulates the accumulation of attached algae over the summer. The model accurately predicted the accumulation of algae measured on artificial substrates at four sites before the ban and 7 sites after the ban. Then this validated model was used to predict the accumulation of algae at several sites downstream of the point source under preban and postban loading for both average flow and 10 year low flow years. Reductions in algae levels were expressed as the percent reduction in the peak biomass and the cumulative biomass simulated over the summer. Under average flow conditions, the model predicted that the P ban would effect a 6 to 38 % reduction in peak and mean algal biomass, depending on the site. Under low flow conditions, the predicted reductions were slightly greater — 9 to 48 %. As expected, greater reductions occurred further downstream. Assuming the study sites are representative of the reaches they bracket, the P ban produced at least a 25% reduction in algal levels over 110 river miles. During low flow years, the ban was predicted to effect at least a 40% reduction in 100 river miles. British Columbia has set 100 mg/m2 of chlorophyll a as the level of attached algae that represents an aesthetic nuisance. Assuming for the moment that this level represents a criterion for algae, peak summer levels in the Clark Fork exceed this criterion from the headwaters down to the confluence with the Flathead. Peak levels predicted by the model exceed 100 mg/m2 both before and after the ban. However, mean summer levels from Harper's Bridge to St. Regis exceed 100 mg/m2 before the ban and drop below this level after the ban in average years. In low flow years only Harper's Bridge and Huson move from above the criterion to below it. Under all scenarios, the site just below the sewage plant exceeds the criterion, and the Plains site is below the criterion. If the Harper's Bridge, Huson and St. Regis sites are representative of the reaches they bracket and the reach down to the Flathead, the P ban reduced the mean summer chlorophyll level below this nuisance criterion for 100 miles of river. Given the role of attached algae in dissolved oxygen violations and its possible role in foaming, such reductions would certainly be ecologically significant. Would such reductions produce a change in algal levels or foaming that casual observers could perceive? This is unlikely. Algal levels are tremendously variable from rock to rock within a site. So differences between sites and years can only be perceived with very costly labor intensive sampling programs. And the differences between sites and years could be due to factors other than nutrients. Paying such a cost to prove the benefits of the P ban in each site and year is not justified. Like rivers, people show a lot of variability. We all know people who died of lung disease who did not smoke, and smokers who did not die of lung disease. However, by compiling health and mortality data from thousands of people, it was possible to determine that there is a significant relationship between smoking and lung disease. This relationship is used to predict the increased risk of lung disease from various levels of exposure to smoking. Based on this relationship, warnings are issued against smoking, and smoking is banned in areas where it would affect other people. We do not require proof that every person who smokes will get lung disease before protecting people from the risk associated with smoking. Artificial stream studies have quantified the relationship between nutrient and attached algae levels. This relationship was incorporated into a realistic, well validated model that was used to predict how river algal levels will likely respond to various exposures to nutrients. Based on these predictions, the Missoula P ban has greatly reduced the river's risk of producing nuisance algae levels and the attendant water quality problems. The benefit to cost ratio of this managment action is quite high. The only management action that could rival the P ban in its potential effect would be much more costly — land treatment of the Missoula sewage in the summer time. If all these nutrients were retained on the land, the resulting reduction in P and N loads to the river would be enormous. The sites downstream of the sewage plant might be expected to approach the site above the sewage plant in nutrient and algal levels. Nutrients brought in by the Bitterroot River and the pulp mill would result in some increase in algae, but summer algal levels would be drastically reduced. These reductions would further benefit chemical water quality (and could be predicted using the model used in this study) ; however, the potential impacts on the fishery of this reduction in food base should be addressed also. n NUTRIENT LIMITATION IN THE UPPER CLARK FORK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The upper Clark Fork exhibits massive growths of the filamentous green alga Cladophora that interferes with fishing and contributes to violations of the state DO standard. To evaluate what nutrient reductions would be required to reduce Cladophora levels significantly, Cladophora growth potential was assessed at several sites on the river that exhibit different nutrient levels. Cladophora requires more than a year to develop massive growths on new substrates. Germinating zoospores must first establish a holdfast and then grow upright filaments. The upright filaments often break off, particularly over winter, and new filaments grow from the holdfast in subsequent years. With each year the growths appear more massive. To study the limitation of massive growths in one growing season, rocks already well colonized with Cladophora and just beginning the new year's growth of filaments were collected from two sites. These rocks were then transplanted to four other sites that differed in their levels of soluble inorganic P and N. The four sites and their nutrient levels were: Median (and range) of SRP (ppb) Nitrate (ppb) N:P Warm Springs: 40 (20-90) 15 (<10-40) 0.375 Deer Lodge : 5 (3-22) 80 (4-150) 16 Gold Creek: 27 (11-37) <10 (<10-30) <0.37 Bear Creek: 37 (16-46) <10 (<10) <0.27 In mid July, rocks were placed at similar depths and water velocities and checked weekly when water samples were collected. Half the rocks were harvested after one month and half after a second month. Algal levels were expressed as chlorophyll a and ash free dry weight (AFDW) per unit area. In August, chlorophyll levels were slightly correlated with median SRP and nitrate (slightly better with nitrate) . In September, neither nutrient showed any correlation with chlorophyll levels. In August, AFDW showed no significant differences between sites, and in September, AFDW differences were not correlated with median nutrient levels. The ratio of N:P at these sites suggests that N is more likely to limit algal growth than P at three sites (Warm Springs, Gold Creek and Bear Creek) while P should be more limiting at Deer Lodge. However, massive growths accumulated at Deer Lodge, Gold Creek and Bear Creek but not at Warm Springs. The lack of massive accumulations at Warm Springs may have been caused by heavier grazing or by limitation by toxic metals or a shortage of some trace element. m Hence, nutrient levels in the upper river appear to be sufficiently high long enough that other factors account for much of the variation in algal levels. These results suggest that it may be necessary to reduce the median nutrient concentrations below the 5ppb SRP observed at Deer Lodge and below the nitrate detection limit (10 ppb) observed at Gold Creek and Bear Creek before really significant reductions in Cladophora levels are observed. A careful assessment of point source contributions is necessary to determine whether this would be possible by controlling point sources alone. It should be noted that Cladophora can store excess nutrients during short periods of high nutrient levels to last through fairly long periods of low nutrient levels. Hence if all the sites had a few short periods of high nutrient levels, the difference in the typical levels at these sites may not be that relevant. Such short periods of high nutrient levels might not be picked up even in weekly sampling. In addition, nutrient levels in June might determine algal levels for the rest of the summer. It may be that controlling these short periods of high nutrient levels would result in reductions in algal levels at those sites that typically have fairly low nutrient levels. Again, a careful assessment of point source contributions may reveal whether this is possible by controlling point sources only. It may be that the most important factors controlling Cladophora accumulations in some Montana rivers is the frequency and duration of spring scouring flows and the hardness of the water. The middle Clark Fork has nutrient levels as high or higher than the upper river (although the N:P ratios are not so low) but is not characterized generally by massive Cladophora growths (though the alga is present) . The Middle Clark Fork water is softer and has higher flows that last until later in the spring/ summer . Increased reductions in flows associated with withdrawal of water from the river will increase hardness and decrease scouring flows (particularly toward the end of the high flow season) . This may allow the Cladophora problem to move downstream. In recent years I have observed that certain growths of Cladophora in the middle river have become more massive, but this may be natural variation. IV INTRODUCTION Attached algae communities in the Clark Fork River sometimes reach levels that interfere with beneficial uses of the river. Nutrient addition experiments carried out in streamside artificial streams have identified the levels of nitrogen and phosphorus that saturate attached algae standing crop in these waters. Most reaches of the Clark Fork most of the time are below the nutrient levels that saturate standing crop, hence reductions in nutrient levels may reduce attached algae levels in the river (Watson et al. in press) . Recently, the City of Missoula enacted a ban on the sale of laundry detergents containing a significant amount of phosphate. Since that time the soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) load from the Missoula sewage plant has been reduced almost 50%. In recent years the Frenchtown pulp mill dramatically reduced P loading (and N loading to a lesser extent) . This reduction, along with the greater dilution by higher river flows, likely resulted in lower instream SRP levels in 199 0 when compared to the drought years that preceded the ban. The effect of such a change in loading on river biota is often evaluated by comparing biotic response above and below the point of loading both before and after the change takes place. This is the classic impact study design. Simple upstream-downstream comparisons are confounded by the fact that the sites may differ for many factors besides the one under study. Simple before-after comparisons are confounded by year-to-year differences in many uncontrolled factors. Even with the combined upstream-downstream before-after design, it is difficult to evaluate the benefits of a single action when numerous other factors change over time and space as well. In addition, benefits may not occur immediately downstream or immediately in time. In the case of the effect of the Missoula phosphate ban, some limited 'before the ban' algal accumulation data exists. Algal accumulation on artificial substrates was measured above and below the sewage plant and the pulp mill in 1987 and above and below the sewage plant in 1988. However, the three sites below the sewage plant have such high nutrient levels that nutrients may still be near levels that saturate standing crop even after the ban. Changes in nutrient levels near the point of saturation have a small effect on algal growth rates which is detectable in a controlled laboratory situation but are unlikely to be detectable when measured under field conditions with their greater sources of variation. The greatest benefits of the ban are likely to accrue further down river where nutrient levels are lower. Here changes in algae levels may be great enough to measure; however, there is no preban data for these sites. Another approach provides a better means of quantifying the effects of the P ban on algal levels in the Clark Fork. A model of attached algae accumulation developed by Watson has been validated for the middle Clark Fork River using instream nutrient and algae levels measured in 1988 and 1990. The model was then used to predict accumulation of algal standing crop in different parts of the river under both average flow and low flow conditions given the SRP loads produced by the Missoula Sewage Plant before and after the P ban. ALGAL ACCUMULATION IN THE MIDDLE & LOWER CLARK FORK, 1987 & 1990 The primary purpose of monitoring algal accumulation on artificial substrates was to obtain data that could be used to validate the algal accumulation model. Some limited evaluations of the artificial substrate data are made below. Methods — Artificial substrates identical to those used in the summer of 1987 (unglazed ceramic tiles) and similar to those used in 1988 (styrofoam beadboard) were placed in the Clark Fork at the same sites monitored in 1987: above and below the Missoula waste water treatment plant WWTP (Russel Street and Schmidt site) and above and below the mill (Bioassay shack and Ken Cyr ' s land at Huson) . In addition substrates were placed at several sites farther downriver (Alberton, Superior, St. Regis, and Plains — the Superior substrates were vandalized soon after placement) . Substrates were kept between 20-30 cm deep and in water flowing 0.3 m/s +/- O.lm/s. Middle river substrates were sampled weekly and lower river substrates monthly from early July until the end of September. Five to 10 replicate samples were collected each time. Water samples were collected at the same time and analyzed for soluble reactive P and for soluble inorganic nitrogen (unless the WQB was sampling at that time) . Algal material on the substrates was analyzed for chlorophyll a and for ash free dry weight according to Standard Methods (1985) . Results — Substrates placed upstream of the Missoula WWTP showed fairly similar behavior in all three years (Figures, 1, 2, 3 — chlorophll levels were somewhat higher in 1988, a severe drought year) . The site below the Missoula WWTP reached similar peak levels in all three years but certainly grew more slowly at the beginning of the summer in 1990. The SRP and nitrate levels were lower earlier in the summer and rose in late August and early September, probably contributing to the rapid increase in accumulation during that period. The stations above and below the mill showed a rapid increase in biomass early in the summer (and actually outstripped the below Missoula site early on) but levels dropped off later in the summer. In early summer, these sites had higher nitrate levels than the below Missoula site, but later these nitrate levels dropped below those at the below Missoula site (see nutrient data in Appendix N) . Low N levels and the drop in algal standing crop observed in early summer at the below Missoula site may have been caused by some high flows in upper river tributaries which were somewhat damped out by groundwater inflows and Bitterroot River inputs at the sites bracketing the mill. Generally, algal standing crops at the sites bracketing the mill were similar in 1990 and 1987 with the exception of the last sampling below the mill which was much lower in 1990 than in 1987. There is no preban data for the sites from Alberton down, but after the ban the Alberton algal levels were similar to the below mill levels (just a bit lower) , and the St. Regis levels were similar to the above Missoula levels. The algal accumulation levels at Plains (not shown in these figures; see next section) were lower still. Hence these sites demonstrate that lower accumulation levels are associated with the lower nutrient levels that characterize these sites. Conclusions — To facilitate comparing the maximum algal accumulation levels attained in 1987, 1988 and 1990, the last three to four samplings of the summer were averaged (Figure 4) . Sites are referred to by number on graphs: 1,2 — above and below the Missoula STP; 3,4 — above and below the mill; 5 — Alberton; 6 — St. Regis; 7 — Plains. Again the site above the STP had similar biomass in all years with 1988 a little higher. The site below the mill accumulated significantly less chlorophyll in 1990, while the site above the mill accumulated significantly less AFDW. EVALUATION OF BENEFITS OF THE P BAN THROUGH USE OF AN ALGAE MODEL Nature of the Algae Accumulation Model The model used in this study is described in detail in Appendix M. The following is a short conceptual description. The algal accumulation model was developed to simulate the accumulation of attached algae on the bed of a river. The model allows algal biomass to 'grow' as a function of temperature, light and nutrient level. Biomass is lost to respiration and sloughing. The algal growth and respiration functions are fairly typical formulations used in the literature. A maximum growth rate (taken from the literature) measured under optimal conditions of light, temperature and nutrient levels is reduced in proportion to the difference between optimal conditions and the actual ambient conditions. Respiration is handled in a similar fashion but is a function of temperature only. The above portions of the model could be used to simulate algal growth in a lake as well as a river. In order to consider the accumulation of attached algae in a river, the model must also consider sloughing (the detachment and washing away of the algae) . Sloughing has been modeled in a number of ways, from having a fixed sloughing rate to having sloughing increase as algal biomass approaches a level considered to be the maximum biomass that can be supported by the conditions at the site under study. Generally, this maximum biomass is set at the maximum value ever observed in the system under study. In the model used here, an improvement on the latter approach was used. Studies of attached algae in artificial streams show that when attached algae is allowed to colonize and grow on a bare surface, it accumulates rapidly at first, then the rate of accumulation slows and approaches zero. The processes of loss come to balance the processes that add to the biomass and an equilibrium biomass is reached. This equilibrium biomass is a function of nutrient concentration. That is, the higher the nutrient concentration the longer the algae will increase in biomass before accumulation levels off. Hence the maximum biomass that can be sustained is a function of nutrient level. The artificial stream studies of Bothwell and Watson were used to develop a function that predicts maximum biomass from soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) levels. Hence the maximum biomass that a site can support is changing over time as a function of ambient SRP concentration. And again as the algal biomass levels estimated by the model approach the maximum level that can be supported, sloughing increases. So in a nutshell, the model is given as input an initial low level of biomass, and then is given on an hourly basis the light, temperature and nutrient conditions at a particular site on the river. Every hour, the model estimates the growth, respiration and sloughing rates as described above and adds or subtracts an appropriate amount of biomass from its previous estimate of the biomass. Thus algal biomass gradually increases or decreases depending on whether current conditions cause gains to exceed losses or vice versa. Validation of the Model To validate a simulation model one must have several independent sets of validation data. Validation data is a combination of both the input data the model requires (in this case, light, temperature and nutrient data) and the ouput data the model produces (algal biomass levels over the summer) . In 1988 and 1990 both SRP and algal accumulation rates were measured at several sites on the Clark Fork. (In 1987 algal accumulation rates were measured but SRP was not, and in 1989 SRP was measured but algal accumulation rates were not) . The model was used to simulate algal accumulation at two sites in 1988 (above and below the Missoula sewage treatment plant or STP) and at 7 sites in 1990 (above and below the STP, above and below the pulp mill and at Alberton, below St. Regis and at Plains) . The results of these validation runs appear in Figures 5 to 12 . In all of these figures the model simulation results appear as a line. The horizontal markers represent the 95% confidence interval of the measured algal levels on artificial substrates in the river. The line produced by the model does not pass through every 95% confidence interval, but taken all together, the model does a good job of predicting the differences in algal levels between these sites and the general pattern of algal accumulation over the growing season. Estimating Nutrient Levels Under Different Loading & Flow Scenarios To evaluate the benefits of the phosphate ban, it seemed most reasonable to use the algae model to predict algal accumulation rates under the nutrient conditions one would expect under the following 4 scenarios: Average flow conditions with P loadings before and after ban Low flow conditions with P loadings before and after ban In order to estimate the SRP levels that would be expected under these conditions, it was necessary to develop a simple nutrient model for the river. This model estimates the nutrient concentration at each station by dividing the total loads added to the upstream reach by the flows at the station in question. In other words: SRP @ DOWN = (SRP*Flow £ UP ± SRP*Flow of Trib or Eff ) (combined Flow of UP and Trib or Eff) Where SRP is the concentration of SRP at downstream (DOWN) or upstream stations (UP) or in tributaries (Trib) or effluents (Eff) ; Flow is the volume of water passing a point per unit time. Flow data were provided by the USGS office in Helena and included the long term average flows for these sites and the 10th percentile low flows (only 10% of flows are lower than these) . Sewage plant loading is based on data available from the plant (data from preban years were averaged as were post ban data) . Inriver SRP concentrations measured at the above Missoula site and in the Bitterroot and Flathead rivers were also averaged for preban and post ban years. This approach has a number of sources of error. It assumes we have a good estimate of the loads and the flows of each reach. It also assumes that phosphorus is conservative which it is not. Phosphorus may be taken up or released by the algae in each reach at any given time. Hence the downstream concentrations may be greater or lesser than would be predicted by this strictly conservative approach. During the summer, nutrient levels along the river are generally lower than predicted by this conservative model. This is to be expected since algae are taking up nutrients from the water. The percent of the incoming nutrient load retained in each reach over several summers of available data was determined, and this retained load was subtracted before estimating the concentration below the reach. The above approach produced the nutrient levels summarized in Figures 13 to 16. Algal Accumulation Under Four Nutrient Scenarios The above nutrient levels were used to produce four experimental simulations for each of the following sites: above and below the WWTP, above and below the mill, at St. Regis and Plains. Results of these simulations appear in figures 17 to 22. Each figure shows the results of two simulations — before and after the P ban. Each site and each flow regime is depicted on a different figure. Conclusions To permit quick comparisons between pre and post ban simulations, differences between these simulations were summarized in a single number. First, the peak algal biomass of the summer was noted for each pair of simulations, and the percent reduction between these peaks was noted. In addition, the mean summer algal biomass was determined, and the percent reduction between pre and post ban means was calculated (Table 1) . Generally, greater % differences are exhibited farther down the river where nutrient levels are lower. The farther the nutrient level is below saturation, the greater is the effect of a nutrient loading reduction. In addition, algal differences are generally greater in lower flow years than in average flow years because the instream nutrient concentration change from pre to post ban loading is greater in low flow years. One exception is the site just below the Missoula WWTP. In low flow years the nutrient concentrations both before and after the ban are so near saturation that the reduction has less of an effect. British Columbia has set 100 mg/m2 of chlorophyll a as the level of attached algae that represents an aesthetic nuisance. Assuming for the moment that this level represents a criterion for algae, observed summer levels in the Clark Fork exceeded this criterion from the headwaters down to the confluence with the Flathead before the ban (Water Quality Bureau data) . Peak levels predicted by the model exceed 100 mg/m2 before and after the ban. However, predicted mean summer levels from Harper's Bridge to St. Regis exceed this level before the ban and drop below it after the ban in average flow years. In low flow years, only the mean biomass at Harper's & Huson move from above the criterion to below it. Under all scenarios, the site below the WWTP exceeds the criterion, and the Plains site is below it. If the Harper's to St. Regis sites are representative of the reaches they bracket and the reach down to the Flathead, the P ban reduced mean summer chlorophyll below this criterion for 100 miles of river (Table 2) . ACKNOWLEDG EMENT S This work was supported by the Clark Fork Monitoring Project with funds from the Clean Water Act Section 525 Study Project. Access to the river was kindly provided by Ken Cyr, Mr. and Mrs. Robert Hammer, Mr. 'Schmidty' Schmidt and Stone Container Corporation. The Missoula WWTP loading data were provided by Tim Hunter and Joe Aldegarie of the City of Missoula. Clark Fork River flows were provided by Mel White of the Helena Office of the USGS. REFERENCES APHA. 1985. Standard Methods for the examination of water and waste water. 16 th edition. Watson, V. J., P. Berlind, L. Bahls. in press. Control of algal standing crop by P and N in the Clark Fork River. Clark Fork River Symposium, Montana Academy of Science, April, 1990. TABLE 1. PREDICTED REDUCTION IN ALGAL ACCUMULATION IN RESPONSE TO THE MISSOULA PHOSPHATE DETERGENT BAN FLOW AVERAGE SITE ABV MSL BEL MSL ABV MILL BEL MILL ST. REGIS PLAINS RIVER PEAK SUMMER BIOMASS MILES (mg CHL a/in2) FROM BEFORE AFTER % ABV MSL P BAN P BAN REDUCED 0 50 50 0 2 220 190 14 13 160 150 6 25 190 160 16 89 140 130 7 122 80 50 38 MEAN SUMMER BIOMASS (mg CHL a/in2) BEFORE AFTER % P BAN P BAN REDUCED 40 40 0 152 139 9 117 88 25 123 92 25 112 80 29 66 41 38 LOW ABV MSL BEL MSL ABV MILL BEL MILL ST. REGIS PLAINS 0 2 13 25 89 122 50 230 180 200 170 70 50 210 150 170 130 40 0 9 17 15 24 43 34 154 106 103 85 36 34 138 69 60 44 20 0 10 35 42 48 44 TABLE 2. PREDICTED REDUCTION IN FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF NUISANCE ALGAL CONDITIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE MISSOULA PHOSPHATE DETERGENT BAN RIVER FLOW SITE MILES BELOW ABV MSL AVERAGE ABV MSL 0 BEL MSL 2 ABV MILL 13 BEL MILL 25 ST. REGIS 89 PLAINS 122 LOW ABV MSL 0 BEL MSL 2 ABV MILL 13 BEL MILL 25 ST. REGIS 89 PLAINS 122 % OF DAYS ALGAL LEVELS % REDUCTION > 100 mg/in2 CHL IN FREQUENCY OF BEFORE AFTER EXCEEDANCES OF CHL CRITERIA 0 0 65 75 100 0 0 2 29 50 200 0 P BAN PBAN 0 0 79 79 65 23 63 16 43 0 0 0 0 0 83 81 78 58 78 47 65 0 0 0 LIST OF FIGURES OBSERVED ATTACHED ALGAL BIOMASS ACCUMULATION, MIDDLE CLARK FORK: FIG 1. ash free dry weight accumulation (AFDW) , 1987 & 1990 FIG 2. chlorophyll a accumulation, 1987 & 1990 FIG 3. chlorophyll a accumulation, 1988 FIG 4. late summer averages, chlorophyll and AFDW, 1987-1990 VALIDATION RUNS OF THE ALGAL ACCUMULATION MODEL (COMPARISON OF SIMULATED AND OBSERVED ALGAL LEVELS) FIG 5. chlorophyll a, above & below Missoula WWTP, 1988 FIG 6. chlorophyll a, above Se below Missoula WWTP, 1990 FIG 7. ash free dry weight, above & below Missoula WWTP, 1990 FIG 8. chlorophyll, above & below mill (Harper Br. & Huson) , 1990 FIG 9. ash free dry weight, above & below mill, 1990 FIG 10. chlorophyll & ash free dry weight, Alberton, 1990 FIG 11. chlorophyll, St. Regis & Plains, 1990 FIG 12. ash free dry weight, St. Regis & Plains, 1990 MODEL SIMULATIONS OF SOLUBLE REACTIVE PHOSPHORUS LEVELS AT SIX SITES ON THE RIVER FOR 2 FLOW SCENARIOS AND 2 LOADING SCENARIOS SITES ARE: AM & BM = ABOVE AND BELOW MISSOULA WWTP; HB & HU = ABOVE AND BELOW PULP MILL (HARPER'S BRIDGE & HUSON); SR = ST. REGIS; PL = PLAINS. FIG 13. AVERAGE FLOW, BEFORE BAN FIG 14. AVERAGE FLOW, AFTER BAN FIG 15. LOW FLOW, BEFORE BAN FIG 16. LOW FLOW, AFTER BAN ALGAL MODEL SIMULATIONS OF ALGAL BIOMASS BEFORE AND AFTER P BAN FOR AVERAGE AND LOW FLOW CONDITIONS: FIG 17. ABOVE MISSOULA FIG 18. BELOW MISSOULA FIG 19. ABOVE MILL (HARPER'S BRIDGE) FIG 20. BELOW MILL (HUSON) FIG 21. ST. REGIS FIG 22. PLAINS ALGAL ACCUMULATION, SUMMER 1987 MIDDLE CU\RK FORK RIVER 10 20 30 40 50 60 DAYS SINCE STARTUP (870715) ALGAL ACCUMULATION, SUMMER 1990 I CD > CE Q UJ LU tz LL I en < MIDDLE CLARK FORK RIVER 20 30 40 50 60 DAYS SINCE STARTUP (900713) FIGURE ] ALGAL ACCUMULATION, SUMMER 1990 MIDDLE CLARK FORK RIVER 250 J ABVMSL -■- BELMSL ABVMILL —I — BELMILL ▲ ALB STREG 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 DAYS SINCE STARTUP (900713) ALGAL ACCUMULATION, SUMMER 1987 MIDDLE CU\RK FORK RIVER 250 10 20 30 40 50 60 DAYS SINCE STARTUP (870715) FIGURE 2 ABVMSL BELMSL ABVMILL BELMILL 70 80 ALGAL ACCUMULATION, SUMMER 1988 MIDDLE CUKRK FORK RIVER 250 20 30 40 50 60 DAYS SINCE STARTUP (880708) ABVMSL BELMSL 80 FIGURE 3 FIGURE 4 LATE SUMMER ALGAL BIOMASS, 1987-90 MIDDLE CLARK FORK RIVER 250 c7 200 E E ra 150 >- i 100 o _l o 50 ABV MSL BELMSL — + BEL MILL ■4- ~ ABV MILL — ± + -t- + ALB SR PL 87 88 90 87 88 90 87 90 87 90 90 90 90 YEAR 35 30 25 20 15H 10 X < 5 £ I o LU cr Q LU BELMSL ABV MILL BEL MILL ABV MSL ALB + SR PL "sT 90 87 90 87 90 87 go" YEAR "go 90 go" MEAN - 95% CON. LIM. - SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP ABOVE MSL STP. SUMMER 1988 300 250 200 150 100 50h MODEL OBS 95% CONFIM §00 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 DAY OF YEAR SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP BELOW MSL STP, SUMMER 1988 MODEL OBS 95% CONFIM 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 DAY OF YEAR Figure 5 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP ABOVE MSL STP, SUMMER 1990 300 250 200 150 100 50h MOOEL OBS. 95% CX>FIM S20 230 240 250 260 DAY OF YEAR 270 280 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP BELOW MSL STP, SUMMER 1990 300 250 200 150 100 50- 220 230 240 250 260 DAY OF YEAR MODEL OBS. 95% CONFiW 270 280 Figure 6 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP ABOVE MSL STP, SUMMER 1990 I 50 40 30 20 10 MODEL oes 95% CONFUwl §20 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY OF YEAR SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP BELOW MSL STP, SUMMER 1990 I 50 40 30 20 10 MODEL OBS 95% §20 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY OF YEAR Figure 7 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP AT HARPER BRIDGE, SUMMER 1990 300 250 200 150 100- 50- MODEL OBS 95% CXDNFIM §10 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY OF YEAR SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP AT HUSON, SUMMER 1990 SlO 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY OF YEAR MODEL OBS 95% COM^iM ( Figure 8 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP AT HARPER BRIDGE, SUMMER 1990 50 40 30 20 10- MCOEL CBS 95% §10 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY OF YEAR SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP AT HUSON, SUMMER 1990 50 40 30 20 lOh - MODEL OBS 95% COt¥JJA 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY OF YEAR Figure 9 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP AT ALBERTON, SUMMER 1990 300 250 200 150 100 50 MODEL OBS 95% OONFUA §10 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAYOF YD« SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP AT ALBERTON. SUMMER 1990 - 50 40 30 20 10 MODEL OBS. 95% CCfFlM Si 0 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY CF\EAR Figure 10 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP BELOW ST. REGIS, SUMMER 1990 I .5X) — ?fn Mum 2U0 - (TR 95% 150 ^ CONFiM 1CX) 50 - ^— -— — — ^=— s, . -^ _ 0 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAY OF YEN? SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP PLAINS, SUMMER 1990 300 250 200 150 100 50 MOOEL OBSl 95% CONFiM 220 230 240 250 280 270 280 DAYOTYEJiR Figure 11 SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP BELOW ST. REGIS, SUMMER 1990 g 50 40 30 20 10 MODEL CBS. 95% CCNFiiA SlO 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAYOFVEAR SIMULATION OF ALGAL STANDING CROP PLAINS, SUMMER 1990 50 ! 40 i 30 g 20 10- MODEL OBS. 95% CONFiM §10 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 DAYOF YE^ Figure 12 FIGURE 13 SIMULATED SRP LEVELS, CLARK FORK RIVER AVERAGE FLOW, BEFORE P BAN 15-Jun 1 4-Aug 29-Aug 1 3-Sep AM — I— BM — ^I^r- HB — B- HU SR PL DATE FIGURE 14 SIMULATED SRP LEVELS, CLARK FORK RIVER AVERAGE FLOW, AFTER P BAN 60 ^ 50 CO Q_ D- 40 O Z o o D- DC 30 0 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul DATE 1 — I — I — r 14-Aug 29-Aug 13-Sep AM BM HB HU SR PL FIGURE 15 SIMULATED SRP LEVELS, CLARK FORK RIVER LOW FLOW, BEFORE P BAN 0 I I — I — \ — \ — i ' i — I — I — I — I — I — 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul T r ^^— I — I 1 — I — I — I — I 1 1 i I III "T^-^ 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug 13-Sep DATE AM BM HB HU — >e- SR PL FIGURE 16 SIMULATED SRP LEVELS, CLARK FORK RIVER LOW FLOW, AFTER P BAN 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug 13-Sep DATE 250 R CR SITES mo DATES aOMASS mfiLYZH) Figure 11 g ALGAL BIOMASS ON WARM SPMNGS ROCKS TRANSPLANTED TO SITES IN CLARK PORK 3CX) 250 2CX) 150 100 50 7-17 8-1-9-17 8-11 8-11 9-17 8-11 9-17 @WAf*4 SP. (80EE? LOGOLD CR QBEAR CR STTES NMD DATES BCMASS ANALYZED ALGAL BIOMASS ON BEAVERTAIL ROCKS TRANSPLANTED TO SITES IN CLARK PORK g 300 250 200 150 100-- 50- 0 -50 7-17 8-1-B-17 8-11 8-11 9-17 8-11 9-17 ©WARM SP. ©DEER LOGOD CR @8EAR CR SntS AMD DATES BCMASS AMALYZED Figure 12 APPENDIX M — DESCRIPTION OF RIVER ALGAE ACCUMULATION MODEL (PERISIM) PERISIM is a computer program written in IBM BASICA which simulates the accumulation of attached algal biomass on river rocks over time. In its current form the model has been shown to simulate with reasonable accuracy the accumulation of biomass of the mixed diatom community that characterizes the middle and lower Clark Fork River during the summer growing season. The model simulates attached algal biomass accumulation by estimating the production of new biomass (via photosynthesis) and the loss of biomass (to respiration and sloughing) every hour. Gains in biomass are added to the previous estimate of biomass and losses are subtracted. Thus the mass of algal material gradually increases or decreases depending on whether gains exceed losses or vice versa. That is, the change in biomass over time is simulated by the equation: Bt = Bt-1 + Bt-1 * (rates of growth -respiration -sloughing) where Bt = biomass at time t, Bt-1 = biomass at previous point in time. The time step used in this model is one hour. The ecological processes simulated are algal growth (via photosynthesis) , respiration and sloughing (or loss of biomass due to detaching of algae from the substratum and washing away) . Each of these will be discussed separately. Algal growth — Algal growth has been modeled with varying levels of complexity. While some of the more complex methods are considered to depict nutrient uptake and growth more realistically, some of the simpler methods often produce estimates that are as accurate (or more accurate) . In PERISIM, algal growth is a function of available light, nutrients and temperature. Under optimum conditions of light, nutrients and temperature, algal biomass increases at a maximum exponential rate (that is, some fraction of the existing biomass is added each day) . When any of these factors is less than optimum, the rate of increase is reduced by a specific formula. That is, the growth rate is estimated by: u = Umax * LD * ND * TD where u is the rate of increase, umax is the maximum rate of increase of which that particular community is capable, and LD, ND and TD are the light, nutrient and temperature dependent functions that reduce the maximum rate of increase to that expected under these suboptimum conditions (Lehman et al. 1975) . The light dependence formula is that used by Steele (1964, 1965) which recognizes that photosynthesis increases with light up to a point, then becomes saturated and finally inhibited at higher light levels. This relationship is depicted by the formula: LD or light dependence of growth = (IZ/IOPT) *exp{ 1-IZ/IOPT) where IZ is the light at depth z in calories/cm2/day , lOPT is the optimum light level. PERISIM estimates the surface light level for that time of year and time of day at the latitude being simulated. The light is then attenuated for the depth being simulated, using the formula: IZ = lo * exp(-nz) where lo is the surface light and n is the extinction coefficient. Obviously, growth exhibits an increasing and decreasing response to temperature over a wide range of temperatures. But temperatures in the Clark Fork rarely exceed the optimum (around 2 5 C for many species) , hence growth may be represented as a simple increasing function of temperature by the formula: TD or temperature dependence of growth = 0.04*(T) where T is the ambient water temperature in centigrade. The effect of nutrients on algal growth has been modeled in numerous ways. The formula used here is the simple Monod or Michaelis Menten formulation which assumes that algal growth rates can be estimated from ambient available nutrient levels. When estimating accumulation rates of a mixed community this method does as well or better than more complex methods (DiToro 1981) . Hence nutrient dependence is calculated as: ND or nutrient dependence of growth = P/ (P+Kp) where P is the concentration of soluble reactive P (SRP) in ppb in the ambient water and Kp is the half saturation constant or the concentration of P which produces half of the maximum growth rate. Note that when P = Kp then ND is 0.5 and the growth rate is 1/2 of the maximum rate. When P is much > Kp, this term approaches 1 and the growth rate approaches the maximum growth rate. When P is much < Kp, this term approaches zero. However, Kp is very low, 2ppb or less according to most research. Hence, when ambient SRP is low relative to Kp, it is below detection. Respiration is modeled as a simple function of temperature similar to the temperature dependence of growth: Respiration rate R = 0.04 * T * Kr Where Kr is maximum daily respiration rate (0.1/day) and T is as before. This equation produces respiration rates similar to those produced by the equation developed by Graham et al. (1982) in which R = 0.151*(0.025T + 0.1). Sloughing is a function of water velocity and turbulence and the vigor of the algal community. Artificial stream studies show that, following colonization, algal biomass increases at a rapid exponential rate than levels off as losses in biomass come to balance gains. As long as environmental conditions do not change greatly, a dynamic eguilibrium biomass is established that seems to be a function of ambient nutrient level. That is, under higher nutrient levels, algal biomass accumulates to a higher level before leveling off than it does under lower nutrient levels. Based on the work of Bothwell (1989) and Watson (1990) , a formula was developed that described this relationship between ambient nutrient level and the maximum biomass sustained at this dynamic equilibrium: Bmax = 10 + 60 * P/ (P+Kb) where 10 g/m2 is the biomass sustained at P levels below detection level, 60 is the maximum biomass sustained when P saturates standing crop and Kb is the SRP level that produces a standing crop that is about half of the maximum level. As the biomass at a site approaches the maximum biomass that can be sustained given the nutrient levels there, sloughing increases. This is accomplished by the formula: Sloughing rate = SLMAX * B/Bmax where SLMAX is the maximum sloughing rate (set at 1/2 the standing crop per day) . This approach is similar to that used by Auer and Canale (1980, 1982) except that their Bmax is fixed rather than a function of ambient nutrient levels. Actually, Auer and Canale made two uses of Bmax to limit the standing crop of Cladophora. As B approached Bmax, the growth rate slowed due to shading, nutrient limitation and waste buildup and the sloughing rate increased. The formulations used were: growth dependance = 1- (B/Bmax) sloughing rate = max rate (B/Bmax) for a given wind speed Model Inputs The model estimates the light levels for each day and hour. The environmental data that the model requires is water quality data, specifically, water temperature (in degrees centigrade) and nutrient levels (ppb of SRP) . These parameters were measured weekly during the summers of 1988 and 1990 on the Clark Fork. The model requires daily values and another simple program (PERIFILE) was developed to produce daily water quality input data files from the weekly measurements. An initial biomass value must be specified, typically between 1 and 3 g/m2 is used for simulations. For validation runs, the amount of biomass observed on artificial substrates after one week of colonization was used as the initial biomass and the simulation was started on that date. The model also requires the values of the rate constants and other constants in the simulation equations. These are summarized in table 1. Model Outputs PERISIM estimates ash free dry weight of attached algae per sq. meter of river bed for each day of the simulation. Ash free dry weight is then converted to chlorophyll a by a conversion factor (CCF) . This factor is 150 for high nutrient sites (like Below Missoula STP and Harper Bridge — which tend to be richer in chlorophyll) , 300 for low nutrient sites (above Missoula, Plains) and 200 for moderate nutrient sites (all others) . Limitations of the model The intent of this modeling exercise was to find the simplest model that would estimate the seasonal changes in algal biomass levels in the middle and lower Clark Fork with acceptable accuracy. The model was made more complex only as seemed necessary to obtain accurate reproductions of the river's observed algal levels. As was stated, the current version of the model is capable of reasonably accurate reproductions of the observed algal levels of 1988 and 1990 (as seen in figures 5 through 12 of the main body of this final report) . Many refinements could be added to make the model more realistic, and these refinements may or may not increase the accuracy of the model's predictions. These include growth limitation by multiple nutrients (particularly adding limitation by nitrogen) and the effects of grazing, scouring flows, turbidity, and cloudy weather. Adding these and other refinements to the model does not greatly complicate the model, but it does greatly complicate the problem of obtaining input data for a given year and a given site. The less data hungry the model, the more useful it is, as long as it provides reasonably accurate predictions. The refinement that would most improve the model's usefulness in predicting algal accumulation in the Clark Fork would be adding nitrogen limitation to the model, and this is planned for the future. However, there is much less information available on growth parameters for N than for P. In addition, it would be useful to modify the model so that it could simulate the accumulation of the perennial alga Cladophora. This is a more complex task since one river rock may be starting the growing season with no Cladophora while another may be starting with a growth that is several years old. Validating a Cladophora model is also more difficult because it is harder to obtain validation data. One must measure accumulation on natural substrates or on artificial substrates that have been in the river for a year or more. These efforts are more labor intensive and the data is much more variable than is true of measurements of diatom community accumulation. Obviously, this is a long term project. References Auer, M. T. and R. P. Canale. 1980. Phosphorus uptake dynamics as related to mathematical modeling of Cladophora at a site on Lake Huron. J. Great Lakes Res. 6(l):l-7. Bothwell, M. L. 1989. Phosphorus limited growth dynamics of lotic periphytic diatom communities: areal biomass & cellular growth rate responses. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 46 (6) : 1293-1301. Canale, R. P. and M. T. Auer. 1982. Ecological studies and mathematical odeling of Cladophora in Lake Huron: 5. Model development & calibration. J. Great Lakes Res. 8 (1) : 112-125. DiToro, D. M. 1980. Applicability of cellular equilibrium and Monod theory to phytoplankton growth kinetics. Ecol. Modelling 8:201-18. Graham, J. M. , Auer, M. T. , Canale, R. P. Hoffman, J. P. 1982. Ecological studies and mathematical modeling of Cladophora in Lake Huron: 4. Photosynthesis & respiration as functions of light and temperature. J. Great Lakes Res. 8(1): 100-11. Hutchinson, G. E. 1975. A treatise on limnology. John Wiley & Sons. Lehman, J. T. , D. B. Botkin, and G. E. Likens. 1975. The assumptions and rationales of a computer model of phytoplankton population dynamics. Limnol. Oceanogr. 20:343-64. Spain, J. D. 1982. BASIC microcomputer models in biology. Addison-Wesley. Publ. Co. London. Watson, V. J. 1981. Seasonal phosphorus dynamics in a stratified lake ecosystem: an evaluation of external and internal loading and control. PhD dissertation. Botany, Univ. Wisconsin-Madison. 1983. Application of a seasonal phosphorus dynamics model to a lake ecosystem: assessing lake loading tolerance, pp. 575-592. In Lauenroth, W. K. , G. V. Skogerboe and M. Flug(eds.) Analysis of ecological systems: state of the art of ecological modeling. Elsevier Scientific Publ. Amsterdam. 1990. Improving the biotic resources of the upper Clark Fork River. Streamside artificial stream studies. Report to Montana Dept. Natural Resources and Conservation. Whitton, B. A. 1967. Studies on growth of riverain Cladophora in culture. Archiv. fur Mikrobiologie. 58:21-29. RATE CONSTANTS AND OTHER PARAMETERS USED IN PERISIM SYMBOL M VALUE USED 378 cal/cm2/day VAR 249 cal/cm2/day VARDL 4hrs N 0.5 MUMAX 1 per day (ie, doubles daily) KI 10 cal/cm2/day lOPT 15 cal/cm2/day KPMU 2ppb KPB 5ppb SLMAX 0.5/day KR 0.1/day DEFINITION mean annual dally light intensity at 45 N latitude seasonal variation of light intensity either side of the mean seasonal variation of daylength either side of the mean extinction coefficient of water maximum growth rate of algae SOURCE Hutchinson 1975 half saturation constant for light for photosynthesis optimum light level for photosynthe half saturation constant of phospho for algal growth half saturation constant of phospho for algal standing crop maximum daily sloughing rate similar to 0.3/day used in respiration rate coefficient used in R = 0.04 • KR • T produces values similar to R = .151'(.025T + .l)usedby Watson 1981, 1983 Whitton 1967 Watson 1981, 1983 explained in text Auer&Canalel980 Auer & Canale 1988 Watson 1981, 1983 Graham et al. 1982