r-f-^ Ts. i\ 1 ^ i" ', i i I J. :/^ V J ix i^xKi ■>.W7-S- i-Pl \ - \ 3 THE LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES \'l'^ .u M .n.J THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK Digitized by tine Internet Arcliive in 2007 witli funding from IVIicrosoft Corporation littp://www.arcli ive.org/details/farmersoutlookreOOIiinciala THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK A REVIEW OF HOME AND OVERSEAS AGRICULTURE, 1880 — 1913 BY RALPH T. HINCKES. \ti-V l^A^UN LONDON JARROLD & SONS, WARWICK LANE, E.G. .^tu^t- H /; CONTENTS CHAPTER I THE RISE IN FOOD PRICES Due to World Influences — Larger per capita demand of Industrial Population — Great Britain the first to develop Manufactures — Thus the first to feel the need for nnported Foodstuffs ...... CHAPTER II % THE RISE AND FALL OF FOODSTUFF EXPORTS FROM U.S.A., _^ 1873-I913 ^ Unfavourable seasons in Europe in 'seventies L J stimulate American exports — Protective "^ Tariffs check imports to Europe other than United Kingdom — 1885 Fall in Wheat Prices f ; — Bulk Products versus Concentrated Pro- ^ ducts — The Russian Famine, 1891, followed Q= by another drop in prices — Great Britain the ^ principal market for American Food-stuffs — Causes of diminished exports culminating in Home Consumption overtaking supplies . 14 CHAPTER III THE GROWTH OF MANUFACTURES AND THE PRESENT FOOD EXPORTING COUNTRIES The growth of manufactures general — Its results — Classification of Agricultural Products — 5 '"i CONTENTS PAGE Canada : — Extension of wheat acreage — Fall- ing off of Meat and Dairy Produce Exports — The outlook — Argentina : — The principal area of supplies — Live stock, curtailment of supplies imminent — Cereal production — Fac- tors for and against development — Austra- lasia : — Comparison with Argentina — Pro- duction checked by want of population and inadequate railway facilities — India : — Wheat and feeding-stuffs — \Vlaeat a reserve for failure of other food grains — Russia : — Production of Wheat and Rye — Butter exports — Transition in Russian agriculture — Denmark and Hol- land :^Bacon, Butter, and Cheese — Imports of Feeding-stuffs ..... 25 CHAPTER IV THE world's wheat TRADE Principal importing countries — W'ide variations in exports of producing countries — Falling off in exportable surplus of U.S.A. — Its effect on the stability of the World's Wheat Supply- Two factors in development of new wheat areas, the Speculator Farmer, and the Railway Pioneer — Conditions in Canada and Argentina contrasted — Summary of present position CHAPTER V the world's meat trade Diminished Sheep Flocks and Cattle Stock due to increase of cultivation — Serious shortage of Beef and Mutton in United States and Canada — Prospects of frozen meat imports to Europe — Possible new sources of supply — Prices ol home and imported meat . . 83 CONTENTS 7 CHAPTER VI DAIRY PRODUCE, IMG BREEDING, AND FEEDING-STUFFS PAGE Factory system of Butter-making common to all countries engaged in export — Causes for constant variations in prices of Pigs — Recent rise in Butter prices — Demand for Feeding- stuffs likely to increase — The waste products of Breweries and Distilleries largely employed as Feeding-stuffs ..... 99 CHAPTER VH BRITISH AGRICULTURE Increased Home Production of P'ood-stuffs urgently required — Advantages of Home Farmers — Higher natural increase in Flocks and Herds — Higher yield of cereals — Small Holdings . ...... 108 CHAPTER Vin CONCLUSION Gold and Prices — Effect of freight charges on Wheat — Diversion of our Food Supplies — Intensive Cultivation, Irrigation, etc., not likely to be widely applied — Agriculture slow of adjustment — Reasons of this — Emigration of agricultural labour from United Kingdom . 117 TABLES. I. — Percentages of Total Imports to U.K. from Various Countries, 1880 — igii ... 13 II. — Argentine Agricultural Exports ... 42 III. — Australian Statistics showing Agricultural Production . . . . . . si 8 CONTENTS PAOE IV. — The Variations in Yields of Wheat in Various Countries, igoi — lo ... 71 V. — Particulars relating to the Dairy Industry of Various Countries ..... 98 VI. — Imports of Oil Cakes, Seeds, etc., into U.K., and quantities of Malt and Corn used in Breweries and Distilleries . . . 107 APPENDIX I Extracts from Two Articles of The Times, ]\Iarch 21-22, 1913, on American Agriculture . . 131 APPENDIX II Prices of Meat in the Argentine, New York and some European Cities . . , .136 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK CHAPTER I THE RISE IN FOOD PRICES Accepting price as a measure of demand, the higher cost of foodstuffs so widespread, affecting so many articles, suggests a common underlying cause. Our concern is not with fluctuations ; they are common in periods both of high and low prices. The well-estabhshed rise in values, which we are considering, cannot be mistaken for a temporary movement. An essential preliminary is to fix the scope of the enquiry, here confined to wheat, meat, and dairy produce, and to block in as a perspective some general considerations. Our point of view is world-wide. Modern means of communication have gone far to annihilate distance and equalise prices. Higfi grade food-products have found their way into every market, and set a standard of quahty. The success attained during a period of low prices, has eliminated competition against the interests of consumers. Thus the development of the dairy industry, especially where butter 9 10 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK becomes an article of export, involves an organi- sation, on lines similar to those of other highly developed manufactures. Bulk and uniform quality are essential. The retail salesman wel- comes the better-organised product, and refuses the small quantities of uneven quality offered by the home producer. Not impossibly the erstwhile producer may himself become a pur- chaser of the imported article. Idiosyncrasies of diet are tending to disappear. A demand is created for certain foodstuffs which have come to be regarded as the standard necessi- ties of a civilised community. Popular prejudice associates some article of diet with a lower social status. Rye bread is discarded in Germany, or rice in Japan. In both cases larger demands on the world's wheat supplies result. The play of world forces in settling the pro- duction and demand for foodstuffs suggests the root cause of the rise in prices. Trade has brought about the intercourse between nations. The manufacturing system has caused its wide exten- sion. A truism — but one which must be insisted on at the outset of the investigation upon which we are engaged. The growth of manufactures and the corresponding increase in the number of those engaged in winning minerals to provide the workshops with raw materials, and coal, the motive power of manufacture and transport, is THE RISE IN FOOD PRICES ii constantly augmenting the number of food consumers. The wider distribution of wealth resulting in a higher standard of living at the same time increases the per capita demand. Great Britain's position with regard to food- stuffs has been exceptional. As the pioneer of the manufacturing system she was the first to feel the need of additions to her own supplies. Her agriculture was deliberately sacrificed to the overwhelming competition of the New World. It is not here intended to contrast the results of our policy with that of other countries, which during the last thirty years, the period during which the competition of the New World has been effective, might have consumed large quantities of food supphes from Overseas. Let it suffice that as a result of our policy, Great Britain has up til] recently had a monopoly of the surplus supphes of meat, and has been the largest pur- chaser of wheat in the world's market, her population relying at the present time to a greater degree than any other on imported supphes. It is principally with the object of showing the vast and growing changes under which our purchases of foodstuffs from the Temperate Belt ^ are now made that this book has been written. * With the exception of wlacat from India and some foodstuffs from parts of Australia the imports which compete with British Agriculture are grown in countries within the Temperate Belt. 12 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK In the jfirst place, it must at once be realised that the diminished exports of wheat and the almost complete cessation of meat exports from the United States have vitally affected the world's markets. The changes in greater detail will be considered in subsequent chapters. The table on the opposite page sets forth our wheat imports giving the averages in quin- quennial periods from 1880-1904, and from that date the sources of our annual wheat imports up to 1912, showing the extent to which the supplies from the United States have dimin- ished. Wheat {Grain, and Flour in equivalents of Grain) Imported into the United Kingdom from various Countries stated as Percentages of Total Im- ports for each Five-Yearly Period from 1880 to 1904, and for each year from 1905 to 1911. Period. U.S.A. Russia. Canada. India. jAustralasia Arj;en- tiiie. Total supplies thus accounted for. 1880-4 57 9-5 42 10 1 5 j 85-7 1885-9 48-5 16'3 41 12-3 ! 12-9 ! — 941 1890-4 53 14-3 4-8 10 3-1 1 G-5 9r7 1895-9 56-5 12-2 7-1 5-2 1'5 j 6-8 89'3 1900-4 47 10 9-5 10 1 ! 5'1 12-5 94-1 1905 13 22-5 7 20 10 21 93-5 1906 32-G 14-3 11-8 11-2 I 7'7 17-2 94-8 1907 29 9-9 13-2 15-7 1 7-3 19 94-1 1908 36-4 4-6 lG-5 2-7 \ 5-3 29 94-5 1909 22 2 15 17-2 13 9-8 17'8 95 1910 151 24-4 17 15 11-9 12-8 96-2 1911 17-9 161 169 17-9 . 13-9 133 95-7 13 CHAPTER II THE RISE AND FALL OF FOODSTUFF EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES, 1873-I913 The last chapter showed how greatly our suppUes of wheat from America had fallen off of recent years. That this diminution is not the result of a smaller acreage under wheat is apparent from the returns of " wheat acres harvested " in the United States Department of Agriculture Year Books. It should also be noted that a larger average return per acre of three bushels, i.e. from 11.7 bushel in the period '81-5 to an average of 147 bushel in 1906-10 is recorded. The importance of American supplies in deter- mining the world's prices, justifies a review of the circumstances which have led up to the present position of the States as an exporter of food stuffs. In 1874 the United States surpassed France in wheat production, and thus became the world's largest producer. The European harvests from 1876 to 1880 were successively unfortunate, and the rapidly expanding production of the United States filled the gap. Not only were the European harvests insufficient, but the 14 U.S.A. AGRICULTURE, 1873-1913 15 outbreak of rinderpest in 1877 depleted the cattle stock in Europe, and necessarily put a stop to all exports to Great Britain from that quarter. In addition, therefore, to the shipment of cereals the United States found a ready market for large quantities of hog products in Europe and imports of live cattle to the United Kingdom began. The expansion of production in America was rendered possible by the rapid extension of Railways in the West, the labour being drawn not only from immigrants who in the early 'eighties came to the States in rapidly increasing numbers, but also from the manufacturing centres which had recently experienced a period of depression. The land, the labour, and the market by a series of circumstances became available at the same moment and were utilised with the characteristic energy of the American people. With the advent of the 'eighties important changes in the markets which the States had learnt to rely on took place. Not only was there a return to normal seasons in Europe, but the Governments of those countries which had begun to feel the competition of American agricultural products raised up a barrier of veterinary regula- tions amounting in some cases to total prohibition against animal imports and increased their tariffs on agricultural and animal products. In 1880 the Itahan Government set the example of i6 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK prohibiting hog imports from the U.S.A. on the ground that they contained " Trichinae." With the exception of Great Britain almost all the European Governments followed suit, and, in addition, prohibited the importation of cattle and fresh beef. It was perhaps an easier matter to curtail the production of beef and hog products than to stop the expansion of wheat acreage which was the natural result of the opening up of the West by the railroads. Not however till 1884 did the conditions governing the production of wheat result in a severe fall in prices. The Commissioner of Agriculture in the report of that year describes the selling of American wheat abroad in competition with " the half civiHsed Fellahs of Egypt, and the slavish Ryots of India as unworthy of American freemen and utterly unnecessary." He pleads for diversified agricul- ture and the production at home of such staples as sugar and barley, which at that time were imported from abroad. An instructive passage in the same Report describes the pioneer settler " as far less a farmer than a speculator : he finds it convenient to grow wheat year after year to get the ready cash with which to construct houses and bams, build fences, buy ploughs and reapers, and more cheap land." It is from this period that we see America's place in the strenuous competition by all countries, U.S.A. AGRICULTURE, 1873-1913 17 which had a surplus of agricultural products, to sell the produce of their fields, their slaughter houses, and their dairies, in the United Kingdom, which, with certain minor exceptions, placed no restrictions on their trade. From 1884 to 1890 the Reports of the U.S.A. Department of Agriculture show the tendency of American farmers to increase the production of Indian corn as an alternative to wheat. The reason for this is clearly stated in the report of 1888, " Corn and oats are mainly used in the feeding of animals for milk and motive power, enjoying a vastly more elastic demand and having a wider range of uses. The other cereals are almost exclusively used as human food, the demand of which is uniform." Not only did American agriculturalists have to suffer from low prices of wheat, but in 1884 an outbreak of pleuro-pneu- monia put a stop to the import of American cattle into the United Kingdom, except for immediate slaughter, and not till 1889 was this disease successfully stamped out. The prices of cattle naturall}^ suffered from these restrictions and likewise that of hogs from the enforced limitation of the market for hog products by the action of the other European States. The next ten years from 1890 are an extremely interesting period in the development of American agriculture. The problems to be solved had been i8 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK realized during the eighties, and the necessary machinery had been set in motion. While the eighties may be described as a period of dis- organisation, the experience gained enabled the American farmer, aided by the energetic help of the Department of Agriculture, to solve the difficulties which the further fall in prices ren- dered even more acute. The main object in view was the diversification of Agriculture, not only in the U.S.A. as a whole, but in each district. This in eftect meant the production and export of the more concentrated and therefore more valuable products ; cattle, either on the hoof or as chilled meat, hog products, cheese and butter. Another item in the agricultural policy was the production of such articles as sugar, which were at that time imported from abroad. The first step was to ensure the health of the farmers' live-stock and freedom from contagious disease. An ela- borate system of examination of all meat products was organised which enabled any shipment alleged to be unhealthy to be traced to its source ; so far as cattle, sheep and beef were concerned, these measures seem to have met with success, and in 1892 the prohibitions against American bacon and ham exports were withdrawn by many Euro- pean Governments. The control of dairy pro- ducts was not, however, so completely successful, for though large quantities of cheese were ex- U.S.A. AGRICULTURE, 1873-1913 19 ported, the prices obtained in Europe as a whole compared unfavourably with cheese sent from Canada and Holland, and the same complaint is made with regard to the smaller quantities of butter exports. With bacon, some of the Reports state that the demands of the English market were not sufficiently studied, and that American shippers seemed to content themselves with selhng their surplus products abroad for what they would fetch. The period 1890-1900 opened with a remarkable increase in wheat prices. To quote from the Report of 1890 : — " To-day the cloud which for some years seemed to rest gloomily on American agriculture has been lightened, while the wise economical legislation already secured holds out still brighter promise of the future." This refer- ence was not only to an increased tariff recently imposed on agricultural imports, but also to the Silver Bill, from which much was expected. The Russian famine of 189 1 followed, accom- panied by short crops of rye, as well as wheat, throughout Europe. With bountiful crops at home and scarcity abroad the American farmer reaped a double advantage. It seemed as if the Secretary of Agriculture's prophesy was indeed coming true. His hopes were soon dashed to the ground. In 1892 prices both of wheat and corn started a decline by comparison with which the 20 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK low prices of 1884-5 appeared generous ! In 1894 the lowest price for wheat was recorded, the average official price in England being 22s. lod. per quarter. That prices ruling during this period were considerably below the cost of production is shown by the estimates of cost appearing in the Reports. The Governor of Kansas State, writing in the " North American Review " of January, i8g6, shows that more than ten thousand farmers in this State were annually dispossessed of their homes by foreclosures of mortgages and well-to-do farmers were gradually being forced into bankruptcy. It is to be doubted whether the producers of live-stock fared much better, but the exports of live cattle remained at a steady level, and that of live sheep increased. There was also a tendency to increase the exports of hog products, as well as of fresh beef. Shipments of cheese and butter, on the other hand, seemed to have diminished. In such a brief sketch of the position of American agriculture, it is scarcely pos- sible to trace the yearly variation in production, exports, or prices. It is, however, interesting to examine with some minuteness the conditions rul- ing with the object of showing the factors which were at work in settling the general trend. We find, for instance, that in 1893 the drought in England forced a large number of home-bred cattle on the market, and thereby reduced the U.S.A. AGRICULTURE, 1873-1913 21 price of American imports. In the same year the prohibition against American cattle by Germany increased the demand for bacon in that country, which was met by Danish bacon, the result being a better market for American bacon in the United Kingdom. The importance attached to these indirect influences on the English market serve to empha- sise the importance of the British consumer. In 1893, it is stated, the British market bought more than half of all the farm-products exported from the United States, Butter and cheese exports reached their highest figures in the period i88o-g. Canned beef from 1890 to 1899. Cattle, beef, pork and pork products, and cereals from 1900 to 1904. It has been seen how the American agriculturists endeavoured to meet the fall in prices of bulk products by marketing concentrated products, and also how this move on their part was checked by tariff barriers or the more indirect but equally effective obstruction of veterinary regulations. The absence of an adequate market abroad was undoubtedly offset by the increased home demand gradually overtaking the curtailed pro- duction brought about by lower prices. A reference has been made to the disregard of American shippers to the market conditions neces- sary to obtain the best prices for their bacon and 22 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK ham exports in the United Kingdom. In this connection the Report of 1899 mentions that the Danish farmers not only reaped the advantage of the greater care with which they studied the Enghsh market, but also that they went to the length of importing the cheaper American bacon for their own consumption, thereby enabling them to export larger quantities of their higher grade home-grown produce. In the same Report it is regretted that the American exports of Indian corn, oil-cake, linseed cake, and bran assisted the Danish producers of bacon and butter in competing with the American shipper of the same products. The cumulative effect of several years of profit- able prices resulted in the greatly improved financial position of farmers. To quote the United States Year Book of 1908 : — " The year 1897 marked the farmers' financial turning-point, the prices of his products had previously often been below the cost of production, and he occupied a weak position as a seller. Within a few years after prices had risen so as to make him strong as a seller, and to enable him to hold his crops for fair prices." It is in the year 1908 that we see a rapid decline in the exports of American beef. Whereas in 1907, 1,451,000 quarters of chilled beef were exported to the United Kingdom, in 1908 the U.S.A. AGRICULTURE, 1873-1013 23 number had dropped to 859,000 quarters, and in 1912 the trade has practically disappeared. With regard to live cattle, the figures are 344,000 in 1907, and only 39,000 in 1912. Though this enormous drop in exports was no doubt due to increased home consumption, it was undoubtedly accelerated by special causes. The Report of 1909 sums up the position thus : — " More profit- able crops have made more valuable land, and cheap beef is not the product of high-priced land." Ranges were being broken up by the plough, and the natural process was accelerated by the enforcement of the " No Fence " Law. At the same time the movement for forestry conservation tended to restrict the running of cattle in forest areas. With regard to packing house products, the financial panic of 1907 precipitated a crisis in prices, with the result that sows were slaughtered. There was also a special reason to account for the breaking up of the Western ranges. The Depart- ment of Agriculture had, during many years, assisted the movement known as dry-land farming by acclimatising varieties of macaroni or durum wheats, found suitable for the semi-arid regions of the West, which had formerly been entirely devoted to cattle. These efforts had been so successful that in 1904 the Secretary of Agricul- ture had been able to prophesy that 40 or 50 24 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK million bushels would be grown in the following year, thereby not only precluding the necessity of imports, but also holding out the prospect of exports to Southern Italy for the special purpose of making macaroni. The Year Book of 1907 reports the fulfilment of this prophesy by the export of 20 million bushels, two-thirds of which is stated to have been sent to Mediterranean ports. The vast changes that have been sketched in this evolution of American agriculture have been along the lines laid down by those, who in the period of disorganised expansion during the eighties realised the problems to be solved. From the position of selling abroad whatever it could market, the United States have come to marketing abroad the surplus of abundant seasons. That this change has had far-reaching effects on the British farmer will appear when we come to consider the different circumstances under which our present supplies are produced. CHAPTER III THE GROWTH OF MANUFACTURES AND THE PRESENT FOOD EXPORTING COUNTRIES In the last chapter the United States was shown to have absorbed a larger amount of her own food-stuffs. Agriculture, it is true, has increased in prosperity.^ Manufactures have expanded more rapidly. A larger proportion of the popu- lation became engaged in non-agricultural em- ployments. This conclusion must be subjected to two forms of test. The direct test, the relative increase in rural and urban population, is not of much assistance, for a large number of the rural population, even if they are engaged in agricultural production, may not be producers of foodstuffs. Cotton and flax, both extensively cultivated in the United States of America and other countries which supply the bulk of the world's cereals, show the extent to which this test would prove unreliable. The indirect tests are more conclusive. Of the United States exports, the average percentage of agricultural ' See appendix, giving extracts from two recent articles in The Times, on American Agriculture. 25 26 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK to total exports for the period 1880 to i88g, was 77-2 as against 62-6 for the five years 1900 to 1904. This result is specially remarkable as the apex of the export curve, of live cattle, beef, pork, and pork products as well as cereals, exactly coincides with the second period. Forest products have been excluded, but cotton and tobacco form part of the totals on which the percentages are based in both cases. Take other evidence to show the increasing number of the population engaged in non-food producing employments, and apply it to the United States of America and elsewhere. The coal production in metric tons of Germany, Belgium, France, Austria, the United States and the United Kingdom for the period 1881-5, com- pared with the period 1906-10, shows an annual average production of 355 million tons for the former period, against an average of 901 million tons for the second period. Taking the same countries and comparing the same periods, we find that the figures for pig iron are respectively 20 million metric tons and over 54 milhon metric tons. Similar figures for countries which in the popular estimation are thought to be behind-hand in the development of their minerals and their manufactures are even more signiiicant. The annual production of pig iron in Russia, which INCREASING MANUFACTURES 27 averaged 490,000 metric tons for the period 1881-5, had risen for the period of 1906-10 to an average annual production of nearly 3 million metric tons. Likewise, India produced 6} million tons of coal in 1901 and 12 million tons in 1910, and her output of manganese ore rose from 157,000 tons in 1901 to 800,000 tons in 1910. The industrial development of Japan is another instance of the same kind. Increased expenditure on articles of food which do not come within the category of necessities is another factor which tends to divert the rural population from the production of staple food- stuffs. Production and consumption on an enormous scale of apples and canned fruits have resulted in California's diminished wheat output. The dictum of the earlier economists that other countries would dig and delve to supply us with raw materials for our manufactures and food-stuffs for our industrial population does not now apply. With the exception of the Argentine, where coal and iron ore have not yet been discovered, the whole world is becoming industriahsed, and seems to be following the example we have set them, developing minerals and manufactures and utihsing their food-stuffs to support their growing industrial population. In considering the countries which have a 28 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK surplus of food supplies for export, an essential consideration to bear in mind is the alternative use to which land may be put. The supply of any product is governed by the price in relation to the profits offered by competing agricultural industries. The alternatives may be roughly classified as follows : — (i) Breadstuff s. (2) Feeding Stuffs for Cattle. (3) Meat Products. (4) Dairy Products. (5) Agricultural Products for use in Manu- factures, The divisions are not necessarily exclusive ; thus, linseed may be grown for flax or for seed, and the cotton crop serves the double purpose of a raw material for manufacture and of a cattle food. Under certain circumstances the by-product of an industry in one country may be the primary product in another. The production of high- priced merino wool in Australia tends to make the fleece more important than the carcase ; whereas in the Argentine the relative importance of the two products is reversed. Economic con- siderations may also be bound up with a system of crop rotation, the growing of a crop in the series being determined by its value as part of the system. The availability of transport facilities CANADIAN PROSPECTS 29 and trade organisation are obvious limitations to the agricultural occupations of a country. CANADA The rapid strides of Canada's development in cereal acreage of recent years has almost paralleled the earlier Westward movement of cultivation in the States. Limited by the practical exclusion of maize, acreage increase has largely taken the form of wheat. With a popu- lation of only seven millions, her wheat production is still small compared with that of the United States. Comparing totals, Canada's ten million acres under wheat in 191 1 is roughly but a quarter of the American acreage in the nineties, and the total production of 200,000,000 bushels reached in 1911 is only equal to America's annual exports up to seven years ago. Rapid as the extension has recently been, indications seem to show that the pace in the immediate future will be even greater : the mileage of new railways constructed in 1912 sikuvs a total of 2,000 miles as against 669 for I'lii, and 629 for 1910. A por- tion of this increased mileage is accounted for by the construction of the Eastward and Westward links of two railway systems, which already control an extensive mileage in the prairie district. For the present at all events, these links must be 30 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK regarded rather as channels of outlet for the produce of the plains than as opening up new lands for cultivation. The higher range of prices ruling while Canada's ^\'estern prairies have been brought under the plough have been all in her favour. A relatively high yield and a pro- gressive population render Canada the most reliable source to which wheat importing countries have to look to for the future. The conditions under which wheat cultivation is carried on to some extent offset these favourable factors. Comparing the proportion of winter to spring wheat in the States and Canada, the total acreage under wheat in the former is three-fifths winter and two-fifths spring, whereas Canada's propor- tion is one-tenth winter and nine-tenths spring. Practically the entire acreage has to be sown as early in April as the season will allow. Only the farmer will appreciate the limitations which the crowding of sowing and equally of harvesting into a brief period impose. Compared to the steady though lower yield of the United States, the variations in the yield per acre in Canada is a feature detracting from the rehabiUty of this source of supply, to which further reference is made later on. Other circumstances of a different nature point to some curtailment of the proportion of acreage under wheat both in the newly-developed lands and the older settled districts of the West. CANADIAN PROSPECTS 31 The urgent demands for meat and dairy products in Canada for home consumption must tend to increase the acreage of fodder crops. To a lesser degree the considerable increase in linseed acreage, which has been found to be as suitable for a " breaking crop " as wheat, and which can be sown somewhat later, is a reminder that the practice of " wheat mining " is subject to the competitive influence of other crops. As a sign of Canada's increasing demand for meat and dairy products, the considerable diminution of cheese^ exports to the United Kingdom, and the complete cessation of meat and butter shipments, are unmistakable. Whereas, up to 1910 we re- ceived over 100,000 live cattle per annum, in 1912 Canadian shipments had fallen to 6,800, and a like falling off would appear to have taken place in the exports of hog products. Butter was 61 hundredweight in 191 1, and but 27 hundredweight last year ; since June, 1912, there have been no exports of butter from Canada, and what is more surprising New Zealand's supplies have been requisitioned to make up a deficiency, the net imports from all sources for the ten months ending January 31st being valued at £268,000. While the demand for beef has increased, sup- 1 U.K. receipts of Canadian cheese for 191 1 show a decHne of 134,000 cwt. compared to those of 1910, and likewise 1912 a dechne of 121,000 twt. compared to those of 1911. 32 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK plies have steadily diminished. A Commission known as the Dominion Ranch and Grazing Commission has recently been appointed to reconcile the demands of cattlemen for leases of Crown lands, sufficiently long to justify expendi- ture on fencing, with the interests of the farmers, who view the large areas occupied by ranchers as limiting the expansion of the cultivable area. As in the case of the States, the increasing demands of the Canadian Home Market have been due to the expansion of industries, the develop- ment of the Western prairies itself making large calls for lumber, and the thousand and one articles required by a prosperous agricultural population. Though Canada's industrial progress is well appreciated in the United Kingdom, the census returns for 191 1, showing an increase of urban population twice as great as that of the country districts since 1901, is somewhat of a surprise. Even in the Western provinces the urban population shows rapid growth. As an instance of the alternative to grain production open to the rural population, the increase of 110,000 in the population of British Columbia between 1901 and 1911 is significant, the pro- vince being mainly occupied in mining, lumber, fisheries and fruit-farming. To summarise the immediate outlook as to Canada's place as an exporter of foodstuffs, a CANADIAN PROSPECTS 33 balance has to be struck between probable exports of cereals on the one hand and imports of dairy products and meat. Undoubtedly the shortage of the latter has reached a point which seriously interferes with steady development . The West and the industrial population are making too great demands on the older cstabhshed pro- vinces. High prices for meat affect farmers by largely increasing the cost of breeding stock. A like rise in horses is another handicap. ^ Gasoline tractors'^ have been introduced as an alternative to horses. Will not the adoption of this means of cultivation tend to increase the practice of " wheat mining " ? Will the Quebec and Ontario export trade in cheese be diverted to filling the urgent home demand for butter ? Cereal acreage will be continually extended. The stream of emigrants, " a thousand a day," and the extension of railways put this out of the region of doubt. To what extent will the higher cost of living check the working of the machine ? Will emigration fall off ? If it were not that Canada's capacity to export food-stuffs other ' Prices of horses in Canada : — Heavy draft — rqoo, /30 ; igri, £65. General purposes — igoo, £25 ; 1911, /50. Drivers — lyoo, £2)- '• 191 1. £7^ ^o /So. * According to a recent estimate 6,300 motor tractors are in use in the Western Provinces. c 34 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK than wheat were not called in question, the lower tariffs on agricultural produce likely to result from recent political changes in the United States would be important. 1 At the moment the demand for meat and dairy products is as urgent to the South as to the North of the 49th parallel. The easiest way of escape from the vicious circle of high prices and an increasing demand in the North American Continent is to give the cattle industry a breathing space by imports on a large scale. THE ARGENTINE REPUBLIC The Argentine Republic is now the chief exporter of food-stuffs. The shipments of beef, totalled, for 1912, 4,096,048 quarters. Exports of mutton, though more irregular, amount to about 3,000,000 carcases per annum. Nor does the frozen meat trade account for all meat ex- ports, shipments of jerked beef and beef essence being still considerable. Cereal exports, unlike ' The new U.S.A. Tariff proposes the following altera- tions : — Duty on wheat reduced from 23 cents bushel to 10 cents, cattle ,, ,, 25% adval. to io')o ad val. sheep ,, ,, 16% ,, ,, 10% hay „ „ -13% „ „ 26% ., fruit „ „ 27% „ „ 15% „ butter ,, ,, 6 cents per lb. to 3 cents per lb. On flour, meat, swine, potatoes and milk all duties are to be abolished. ARGENTINE PROSPECTS 35 those of meat, have shown very wide variations ; the records of 1907-8, when nearly seven milhon tons of wheat, hnseed, maize and oats were exported, wheat that year amounting to 15,908,786 quarters, have been followed by very moderate seasons till the present season, 1912-13. ^ Excluding for the moment the jerked beef trade, the area contributing in the main these remarkable totals of agricultural and pastoral produce is small compared to the total area of the Republic, An open fan placed on a map of the Argentine with the handle at Buenos Ayres, the upper stick reaching to the northern boundary of the province of Santa Fe, pointing a little West of due North, and the lower stick reaching to a point about 100 miles South of Bahia Blanca, will practically cover the area in which these products are grown. A small portion of the Province of Buenos Ayres is not included. If we extend the lower stick in a line with the upper one, the area of sea covered will approximately make up for that omitted. The extreme points of the fan will be 950 miles apart, and the extreme breadth will reach out 475 miles towards the interior. Though the Provinces of Buenos Ayres, Santa F^ and Cordoba, together with the Territory of the Pampa Central, account for only 75,484,000 acres ^ Wheat harvest begins in December, maize harvest in March. 36 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK out of 729,000,000 acres, the total superficial area of the Repubhc, the returns for 1910 show over 36I- million acres under wheat, linseed, maize, oats, and lucerne, out of 42I million acres re- ported under these crops for the whole Repubhc. The figures for cattle, sixteen out of twenty-nine milhon, especially if we take into account the much larger proportion of graded stock, are equally significant ; sheep, 42,000,000, out of a total of 67,000,000.^ A glance at the railway map will give a good idea of the extent to which the Republic has already been developed, and confirms the conclusion as to the relative importance of the four Provinces.^ The total railway mileage is now over 19,000 miles, of which the Province of Buenos Ayres accounts for 7,000, the mileage given for the other three Provinces in the 1910 census being 5,608 miles. Attention has already been drawn to the fact that the Argentine is the most purely agricultural country of all those engaged in exporting food- stuffs. In spite of this there are industries which make considerable demands on her food supplies. Such, for instance, as the Quebracho timber in- dustry, of which railway sleepers and tanine ex- ^ Tlie latest slock census shows 80,401,000 sheep. • The Territory of the Pampa Central is taken as a Province. ARGENTINE PROSPECTS 37 tract are the chief products.^ Vineyards in 19 10 occupied over 250,000 acres, and sugar cane some 180,000 acres. In both cases there is considerable room for expansion to supply the demands of the home market. The population of the Argentine at the moment is in dispute, the estimates varying from 6} million to g} million. Without attempting to adjudicate between these figures, the capital, Buenos Ayres, on the census figures of 1910 accounts for some 1,250,000. A rough summary of that census for the other towns accounts for a further 1,120,000, showing nearly 2^ million town dwellers out of a total of about 6,000,000. With these prehminary remarks, let us sum- marise in the briefest possible manner the prospects of the pastoral and agricultural industries. Of recent 5-ears special districts have gradually come to be associated with certain crops. There have also been certain general tendencies. Wheat has been utilised as a breaking crop for establish- ing lucerne as a permanent fodder plant, the practice being to sow it with the third crop of wheat as we sow clover seeds with barley. An essential requirement of this plant is to get its roots down to the permanent water strata. It '■ 191 1 — Exports of Quebracho .. 500,000 tons. Extract . . . . . . 84,000 tons Other industries arc 400 flour mills, 40 breweries, 38 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK has been said that one of the advantages of the Argentine consists in plenty of water above and below ground. Water is not always accessible for lucerne, the presence of a hard strata between the surface and the natural water level rendering some portions of certain districts unsuitable. Such particularly occur in the southern portion of the Province of Buenos Ayres,which is now mainly devoted to cereals.^ At the present time, of the 13,500,000 acres under lucerne, one-third are in the Province of Buenos Ayres and nearly a third in Cordoba, Santa F6 accounting for a large proportion of the balance. Bearing in mind that Buenos Ayres has an area of 76,250,000 acres against Cordoba's 43,250,000, the acreage of alfalfa in the latter Province is remarkable. The laying down of land to alfalfa was the primary cause of a considerable portion of the wheat acreage sown during the last decade. Maize is widely grown all over the Republic. Stated as a proportion of the total acreage under the four cereal crops, it is about 32 per cent, in Buenos Ayres, and also in Santa Fe. Certain districts of the latter Province are particularly successful with this crop, and Cordoba produces a large amount. Maize is sown later than wheat, thus enabling the farmer to cultivate a large area with one crop or the other. Cordoba is the largest » Mixed farming is being gradually introduced. ARGENTINE PROSPECTS 39 linseed producer, a paying crop, though an uncertain one. In gauging future expansion of cereal culti- vation, it should be remembered that the absence of roads renders the cost of carting at a greater distance than twenty miles from a railway station prohibitive. The province of Buenos Aires is well served with railway communications ; and while there is still room for branch lines the main arteries of traffic may be said to be complete. The extensions planned in Santa Fe and Cordoba are about 800 miles, and here, too, the limit of railway extension is in sight. The acreage under wheat for the current crop, as given in the Bulletin of the International Institute of Agri- culture, only shows a small increase, the better yield accounting for an estimated increase in the crop of 19 per cent, over 1911-12. Maize shows an increase of 11 per cent, in acreage, and 22 per cent, in yield. The extension of cereal acreage in the Republic appears to be bound up with the future of the Pampa Central Territory, During recent years, there has been a marked increase in the Westward development within the bound- aries of this Territory. The rainfall has generally been considered insuflicient for wheat growing. With the exception of the present crop, returns have been surprisingly satisfactory. In 1911-12, 350,000 tons of cereals were exported from the 40 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK Territory. In the present year the return is hkely to show a substantial fall, as 3,000,000 acres are reported to have been ruined by drought. With regard to live stock, the most marked tendency was the serious diminution in sheep. The census of 1908 put the falling off at no less than 7,000,000 head since 1895. Without relying too much on this estimate, the advent of cultiva- tion has diminished flocks and pushed a consider- able proportion of the balance into the out dis- tricts, especiall}^ the south and west. Partial droughts during the two years, 1910-11, 1911-12, have also been a contributory cause of the lower numbers. During the last two years lamb exports have increased as shown in the table opposite, total shipments for the last five years remaining practically stationary. There are some indica- tions that mixed farming is coming into vogue, and this should correct the decline in sheep stocks. The last official estimate of sheep puts the total on 31st December, 1911, at 80,401,000, as against 72,539,000 on 31st December, 1910 The other evidence, such as exports of wool, sheep skins, and sheep carried on the railways, given in the table opposite, does not appear to conhrm this estimate. The head of cattle at present in the Argentine is estimated at some 28J miUion. The latest Official Report on the consumption of cattle for ARGENTINE PROSPECTS 41 the home market, freezing, etc., is for iqoc) from a Report made by the Veterinary Department to the Minister for Agriculture pubHshed in 191 1. Tliis gives : — Home Consumption . . . . 4,500,000 Freezing . . . . . . . . 641,803 Jerked Beef and Beef Essence 154,600 Live Stock Exports . . . . 132,450 Total . . . , . . 5,428,853 The number slaughtered for freezing during 19 12 shows an increase of 350,000 head over the figures of 1909 ; there is also the inevitable increased home consumption of meat to be taken into consideration. At the present time the annual slaughter and export on the hoof must be well over 6,000,000. An unoflicial estimate, which has not been contradicted by the Agricultural Department, puts the total for 1912 at 7,200,000. The same writer estimates the annual increase at 4,600,000 head, showing that present exports and home consumption are trenching on breeding stock and reserves to the extent of 2,600,000 per annum. x\llowing for the consumption of hides in the Argentine, the total number of hides exported seem to justify a high estimate of annual slaughterings for all purposes. It must be remembered that, though the vast expanses of Argentine Agricultural Exports AND Numbers of Cattle and Sheep Carried by Rail. Wheat. Flour. Oats. r^Iaizo. Linpced. Tons. Tons. Tons. Tons. Tons. 1908 3,606,440 113,554 440,216 1.786,073 1,064,605 1909 2,576,009 111,573 435,540 2,336,534 918,413 1910 1,898,031 113.546 367,761 2,621,^.94 654,299 1911 2,292,806 109.471 525,079 129,743 442,982 1912 2,657,451 115.925 909.731 4,832,502 529,550 ! Frozen and I 1 Chilled Beef. Quarters. Mutton and Lamb Careiise?. Mutton. Lamb, Totals. 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 ; 2,292,449 2,584,301 ■ 2,899,622 3,765,452 4,096,052 1 2,906,291 2,323,953 2,408,761 2,488,158 2,241,699 : 359,588 399,917 434,915 991,102 718,051 3,265,879 2,723,870 2,843,676 3,479,260 2,959,750 Hides. ■SVool. Biies. Sheepskin? Bales. Biittcr. J-.iloh. 1903 j 4,251,487 385,365 ' 76,371 3,546,800 1909 5,319,238 \ 449,372 81,606 3,093,075 1910 5,108,293 j 356,402 80.699 2,759,025 1911 5,522,247 383,003 75.404 1,214,225 1912 5,947,571 ! 355,438 66.882 3,514,300 Cattle and Sheep carried on Four Principal Railways : — Year rniling Year cndin;; For tlie IlaU-vcar cndiiif June 30Ui, ;9!1. June 30tli, 1912. Dcccmlicr 301 ti, 1912. Cattle: 5,226,383 4,530,800 Decrease for second period, 695,583 Sheep: 13,211,870 12,305,876 Decrease for second period, 905,994 * The Exports of Wool are for the season ending Sept. 30th of each year. The tico principal stock carrying liitea show a decrease of 75,056 Cattle and 13,957 Sheep com- pared to the corres- ponding period of 1911. ARGENTINE PROSPECTS 43 Alfalfa are the best fattening area in the world, these pastures are not so satisfactory as grass lands for breeding purposes. The recent returns of a well-managed estancia with a stock of 30,000 cattle, showed an increase of only 50 per cent, from the heifer stock, and 83 per cent, from cows, the average increase being 75 per cent, of the breeding stock. The estancieros who annually rear their own calves are reaping the benefit of the high prices which now prevail, but those who have depended on their ability to buy steers for fattening are linding the scarcity of stock a serious handicap.^ The latest advices from the Argentine report that the shortage of stock is reflected in the lower rents obtained for alfalfa pastures, considerable areas being unlet from this cause. In view of the foregoing we are scarcely called 1 The following shows the rise in prices of catile and sheep during the last j'ear : April, 19 12. April, 1913. Special steers for freezing ;^g los. . . ^^14 i6s. to to £10 los. . . £is 14s. Extia good .. ^17 los. Graded cows £j Ss, . , £11 7s. to . . to £7 17s- • • I'^i ^s. Special calves, j-ear old £3 ids. . . £^ 133. "^ to to /3 iSs. . . £C> 2s. Sheep for freezing . . £11^. . . £1 4s. •' to to £1 2S. 6d. . . £\ Ss. 44 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK upon to enquire as to the areas suitable for an extension of the cattle-raising industry. It must be remembered that a considerable proportion of the total cattle stock returned for the Republic are not graded up sufficiently for the frozen meat business. Recent proposals have been made by the Government to establish acchmatisation farms for pure-bred stock in the North-Eastern, and therefore more tropical Provinces of Entre Rios and Corrientes, as the risk of losses when introducing pure-bred bulls has proved a bar to the improvement of the cattle stock by private owners.^ The cattle in these Provinces has, up to now, been marketed to the jerked beef and beef essence factories, where high-grade stock is not essential. The point of excellence to which the cattle and sheep stock has attained, is due to the interest shown in the development of the pastoral industry by wealthy Argentine landowners, and by the aptitude of the gaucho for handling cattle. Nor would any Argentine deny that the " Gringo " ^ has assisted. An estate, or more accurately a farm of 244 square miles, with 65 square miles under lucerne, carrying a stock of 100,000 head of cattle and the same number of sheep, besides a ' Tliis must not be interpreted to mean that there has been no improvement by crossing in these Provinces. * "Gringo" — foreigner. ARGENTINE PROSPECTS 45 large acreage under cultivation, is almost outside our comprehension, yet such there are. The success of cattle-raising has been due to the in- dustry being conducted on a vast scale. Prices paid for bulls may seem extravagant. They are strict business when the benefits of a good sire can be spread through his descendants over a large herd. Cereal cultivation is subject to very different conditions. It depends, to a considerable degree, on emigration from Europe, mostly consisting of Italians and Spaniards — a movement surely one of the most remarkable of modern times, some 100,000 labourers annually travelling to the Argentine and back, say 12,000 miles, for the crop season. Nor does the organisation of agri- culture as opposed to stock-raising compare favourably with other countries. A system of grants of land to immigrants, such as that in force in Canada, or the Homestead Laws which did so much to help the westward development in the States, if not entirely absent, is certainly very ineffective, though the Argentine Law of Inheritance, entailing the equal division of property amongst heirs, to some extent makes up for this defect by bringing properties into the market. The cultivator is generally a share farmer or a renter. Over wide areas, when he has reaped a third cereal crop, with which lucerne 46 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK has been sown, he moves on. Nor does the hand- Hng of the grain or the facihties afforded to farmers for getting credit on wheat, compare with the conditions ruhng in Canada or the U.S.A. Some amehoration of these conditions is probable in the near future. To summarise the immediate future, two important factors, immigration and crop varia- tions have already been mentioned. Argentina has a full share of crop vicissitudes. Railway extension is likely to be checked by the difficulty of raising capital at the present time in Europe. This will hardly affect the well-established railways, though it is likely to delay the com- pletion of extensions by the smaller companies. The shortage of live stock, on the other hand, will tend to increase the area under cereals by restricting the acreage put under Alfalfa. Dairy produce should tend to show a gradual increase, and wine, fruit and sugar cultivation likewise. To look further in the future is a speculative occupation. Undoubtedly the carrying capacity of the Republic would allow of a much larger head of live stock. In face of the annual demands for slaughter and export on the hoof, will the breeding stock be given an opportunity of increasing ? Outside of the three Provinces, the extension of cereal acreage largely depends on the Pampa Central. To the South, and also in AUSTRALIAN PROSPECTS 47 the North, irrigation schemes have been started. To the North the tropical chmate in some portions or the low rainfall in others, are both bars to any considerable extension. Developments there will be in both directions. They are not likely to materially affect the total production in the immediate future, or at any time to be consider- able. Perhaps the most important exception will be a gradual increase of stock in the distant foot hills of the Andes towards the south-west, and also in selected portions of the Southern Pampa. As already pointed out, there is much to be done in supplying home demands. Wheat consumption now amounts to 1,000,000 tons per annum. With the closer settling of the country, the demand for cereal food-stuffs is likely to increase, resulting perhaps in a diminution of the present extravagant consumption of meat, a legacy of the times when the hide was worth as much as the carcase. AUSTRALASIA Australasia is the next source of supply to be examined. Owing to her position midway between America and Africa, and near India and the East, the export of meat and butter to some of these destinations is now an appreciable amount of her total output. At times, owing 48 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK to special causes, such as the South African or the Russo-Japanese war, the trade to destinations other than Europe reached large proportions. Almost two-thirds of mutton and lamb imports into the United Kingdom come from Austral- asia, New Zealand and Australia contributing two-thirds and one-third respectively of this total. Of other meat imports, beef, mostly from Queensland, amounts to approximately one- seventh of our total supplies. Butter exports largely increased up to 19 ii, but the recent drought has caused a serious diminution in exports. For 1911 supplies from Australasia were not far short of one-half of all butter imports, Australia's contribution being as two to one of New Zealand's exports. British imports of Australian wheat have already been noticed. The competition between Australasia and x\rgentina in meat exports makes a comparison between the conditions under which the industry is carried on in these two sources of supply instructive. The latter has a very considerable advantage by the concentration of the industry at Buenos Ayres. Not only does this facilitate the grading of the meat but it enables full boat- loads to be shipped direct to Europe. Another advantage is due partly to the better organisation of the industry and partly to the continuous crop AUSTRALIAN PROSPECTS 49 of that invaluable plant lucerne. While Argentine pastoralists arc able to keep up a steady stream of supplies, the New Zealand farmer, especially in the South Island, depends to a large degree on turnips for fattening sheep, with the result that during certain months of the year no shipments are made. It has been suggested that this diffi- culty might be overcome by increasing the storage facilities in New Zealand, so that an interruption in supplies would be avoided. A comparison of railway facilities and organisa- tion brings out another point in which the Argen- tine producer has the advantage. The Report of the Royal Commission on food supplies in New South Wales, recently published, clearly shows the defects of transportation. The Commission recommends amongst other improvements that sheep trucks should be pro- vided opening at the ends, that the cattle trucks should be better ventilated, and that stringent measures be taken to detect and punish careless- ness in driving of stock trains. As '" trucks opening at the end " may come somewhat as a surprise to English readers, it ma}^ be mentioned that the trucks on Argentine Railways are all fitted in this way, the sheep trucks being " two- deckers " and thus capable of carrying large numbers conveniently. Overleaf will be found a table giving various D 50 THE FARI\IER'S OUTLOOK statistics of the States making up the Common- weahh of AustraUa, Queensland, it will be seen, is pre-eminently the cattle State. Of 11,744,000 cattle in Australia in 1910, Queensland accounted for 5,131,000, almost exactly double the number recorded on the break up of the drought in 1902. Though Queensland takes the third place in butter production amongst the states of the Commonwealth, go per cent, of the cattle are of the beef type. The number of sheep in Queens- land in 1910 were 20,331,000 or 22 per cent, of the total in the Commonwealth. With the improvement of the pasture by cattle and the high price of wool, sheep have in some districts taken the place of cattle. In view of the pre- ponderance of Queensland cattle it is not sur- prising to find that of some 590,000 quarters of frozen beef shipped in 1911, 547,000 were from Queensland. A considerable trade in frozen beef has been built up with the Far East, especially the Philhpines, and new markets in the Straits Settlements are hoped for. Artesian wells in Queensland have been sunk, the daily flow being 470,929,000 gallons from wells bored by private owners and 35,560,000 from State-bored wells. The problems of Australia's agricultural devel- opment may be stated as centering in two main groups, first, the measures being taken to minimise AUSTRALIA. Statistics showing Agricultural Production. Now South Wales - V'ictoria - Queensland South Auetralia West Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Total ... Butter rroduction, Chccse I'roduction, 19:0. 1910. Ca»tlo. 76,000,000 lbs. 5,100,000 lbs. 3,140,000 70,600.000 „ 4,500,000 „ 1,547,000 31,200,000 „ 4,100,000 „ 5,131,000 10,700,000 „ 1,700,000 „ 384,000 800,000 „ — 825.000 3,300,000 „ 800,000 „ 201,000 — — 513,000 193,200,000 lbs. 16,200,000 lbs. 11,741,000 Sheep per cent, ill each ytatc of Total Sheep Slatigliteier in Coinmnnwealth. New South Wales 50 % Victoria - - 14 °o Queensland - 22 % South Australia - 7 % West Australia - 5^ "'3 Tasmania - - — Total 1910. 7,500,000 4,200,000 1,751,000 1,300,000 500,000 15,251,000 Wheat, 1909-10. 1,990,000 acres 2,097,000 117,000 1,895,000 448,000 37,000 6,584,000 RCTtiS YieM of Wheat per acre, 1901-02 to 190,1-10, in bu=!ie!-,. I X c w Season ■ .South Vietori.-i W;i!es Queens-; South ! West 'lan 1 Australia Australial Irismania Commin- ^^ealth 1901-02 10-6 (V9 19-4 4-G 10-1 21-8 1902-03 1-2 1-2 3 -2 3 (J ! 10'6 21-4 2-4 1903-04 17-5 14-4 17 6 , 7-7 13-6 15 5 13-3 1904-95 'J -2 9-2 ' 14-2 : 6'5 11-8 18-7 ' 111 1905-06 10-6 11-3 9-5 ' 11'4 ■ 11-8 18-7 111 1906-07 11-t; 11-1 9-6 10-3 11-0 19-8 i 11-1 1907-08 6-0 6-5 ' 8-4 109 10-4 20-9 ! 1 8-2 1903-09 111 13-1 14-8 11-4 8-6 24 0 11-8 1909-10 14o 13'7 13-4 13 2 12-4 21-4 13-7 52 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK and counteract climatic variations, and second, the development of those means which tend to increase production and give it an efficient means of outlet. Taking climatic conditions first, the practice of making ensilage against dry spells is a precaution which has come a little more into vogue. The boring of artesian wells is another. Irrigation schemes are being developed, Burrenjuk in New South Wales, Goulburn Valley in Vic- toria and Murray River in South Australia being the principal. These schemes are under Govern- ment control. There are considerable difficulties to be overcome in rendering them effective for pro- duction. The cost of construction is heavy, and interest and sinking fund have to be paid for by the tenant in the shape of rent. In some cases there has been considerable difficulty in finding tenants, and the majority of those obtained have come from abroad. The reluctance of experienced Australian farmers to undertake the rent of an irrigation plot is also an indication that it is easy to exaggerate the effect of dry spells in retarding Austrahan production. An examina- tion of the fluctuations in production of wheat and butter, and the annual census of stock and sheep of each State over a series of years, brings out the different fortunes of each industry in each State. Taking Australia as a whole the wheat production shows greater variations than AUSTRALIAN PROSPECTS 53 the pastoral industries, dairy produce and meat. Further examination of the statistics of production will show that some districts, such as the Southern districts of Western Australia, have maintained a remarkably steady production of wheat. Of the factors affecting the outlet for produce the chief is the problem of railway communication. Some reference has already been made to this subject in dealing with the Australian meat industry. The importance of efficient and adequate transportation in the development of a new country necessitates some further consideration. It must be remembered that Australia is ham- pered by the policy of railway construction dating prior to the Federation of the States into the Commonwealth of Australia, the railways of each colony being of different gauge. Though the State owned railways are an important asset against the capital liabihties of the various States, further extensions must necessarily depend to a large degree on the capacity of the investing public to absorb " gilt-edged " securities. It is significant of present conditions ruling in the money market that the Canadian Pacific Railway have recently made a large issue of their common stock for the purpose of paying ofif debentures, and that the issue, though made at a high pre- mium, was welcomed by investors. Another 54 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK occurrence pointing to the same conclusion is that the Indian Government proposes to apply part of last year's surplus revenue to much needed capital expenditure on railways. Perhaps /Australia will follow the same course, though the considerable rise in working expenses of the Commonwealth railways for the j'ear ending June 30th, 1912, would seem to preclude this possibility. Another all-important factor is the question of population, in which is included immigration. Canada is now attracting some 350,000 immi- grants a year, Argentina about 300,000, Siberia at least as many. The returns for Australia are as follows : 1909. 1910. 1911. 1912. Arrivals . . 83,609 95,692 141,909 166,958 Departures 54,676 58,145 64,206 73,541 Net Increase 28,933 37>547 77^703 93.417 Though the greater distance from Europe places Australia at a disad\'antage compared with Canada or Argentina, this cannot sufficiently account for the small number of immigrants. Nor is the number of departures a satisfactory feature. Better organization in the means of communica- tion and improvements in other directions would undoubtedly bring with them increased immigration. INDIAN PROSPECTS 55 The increase in home consumption of all meat and agricultural produce is a feature in Australia as elsewhere, and the cultivation of fruit in Tas- mania and in other States is now on a considerable scale. The large proportion of urban to rural population also repeats a feature which has been noticed in Argentina and Canada. Undoubtedly, Austraha could immensely in- crease the output of her wheat, meat and dairy produce. Transport and population are her most crying needs. Till there are some clearer indications than at present that these will be forthcoming British farmers need not anticipate any considerable competition from that quarter. INDIA. India's agriculture in the popular mind is connected chiefly with wheat, cotton and tea. We are at present concerned with wheat and cotton, in the shape of cotton seed cake and other oil seeds and feeding stuffs. The variety of climate in the vast areas com- prised in India is such that every stage in the growth of the wheat crop can be seen going on at the same time. In the principal wheat areas, the crop is sown from October till November and reaped in ?ilarch and April. 56 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK The chief wheat areas are distributed as fol- lows : — ■ ..... Percentage Percentage of cropped of Indian area under area under wheat. wheat. Punjaub 33% 29% United Provinces . . . . 20 % 27 % Central Provinces and Berar 16% 11% The proportion of the crop produced under irrigation of some kind or another is also an inter- esting point. In the Punjaub and the Central Provinces approximately half is grown by irriga- tion. It is noticeable that even irrigated areas arc favourably affected by good seasons. The conditions under which wheat is grown in India resemble those ruling in Russia on many points. In both, the peasant is poor. In Russia, rye is the staple breadstuff. Only in the Pun- jaub is wheat an important breadstuff. Wheat is grown largely for export. The area under this crop is only a small proportion of the total pro- duction of food grains. It acts as a reserve in case of a crop failure of the other food grains. The wide variations in wheat exports unaccom- panied by a corresponding increase or decline in production — a feature common to Indian and Russian exports — is thus explained. Another point should be borne in mind ; though Indian wheat is a comparatively recent source of the INDIAN PROSPECTS 57 world's supplies, the system of cultivation prac- tised is the outcome of long experience — crop rotation, including the use of leguminous crops, is practised. The area under wheat, as a result partly of higher prices and the gradual increase in Canal colonies, has increased, that of igog-io showing 12 per cent, increase over the previous five-yearly average and that of 1910-11 an 8 per cent, increase on the previous year. The most important other products coming within the scope of this book are feeding-stuffs. Like wheat the exports of seeds of all kinds have shown wide variations, thus for the year 1908-1909 the total value was £7,700,000 and in 1909-1910 £12,400,000, in 1910-1911 the value had risen to £16,748,000. The principal exports coming under this head are linseed, barley, rape and gram. The increased exports of gram and barley have been a very marked feature of recent years. Thus, exports of barley have increased from 81,000 tons in 1907-1908 to 600,000 tons in 1911-1912, and gram from 56,000 tons to 366,000 tons for last year. It is noticeable that a large proportion of these feeding stuffs have been consigned to European countries other than the United King- dom. Wheat supplies from India are likely to be variable. At present remunerative prices and 58 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK good crops have brought prosperity, of which there is no better indication than the increased profits of the raihvays. The expansion of manu- factures is steadily progressing, and it would be, therefore, unwise to look for any considerable increase in wheat exports even with a continuance of the present good seasons. RUSSIA If Russia's enormous acreage under rye and wheat, th ; former almost entirely ^rown in European Russia, be added to the acreage of barley and oats, it will be reahsed how much her total cereal acreage overtops any other nation. Only in the case of maize docs she take an inferior position. The returns of the last ten years show an increase in wheat acreage in the early years of the decade which has been sustained, a slight fall in rye, and an increase in barley and oats. The production of wheat and rye, and the ex- ports of these breadstuffs for the three years 1908-10, has been as follows, in quarters : Production : 1908. 1909. 1910. Wheat 73,-)57,ooo 99,158,000 97,995,000 Rye 92,176,000 105,421,000 102,097,000 165,733,000 204,579,000 200,092,000 RUSSIAN PROSPECTS 59 Exports 1908. 1009. 1910. Wheat 6,312,000 22,163,000 26,412,000 Rye 1,8/3,000 2,670,000 3,046,000 8,185,000 24,833,000 29,458,000 Exports stated in percentages on total produc- tion of breiidstuffs are : 1908. 1909- 1910. 4-95 % 1175 % 14-5 % These figures clearly show that the rye crop is lilmost entirely grown for home consumption. When a failure occurs more wheat is consumed. It should be remembered that the year 1908 was the second consecutive season of bad crops. Russia's dairy products have of recent years made a marked advance. The railway returns of butter transported in 1910 show an increase of 48- per cent, since 1901. Butter exports from Russia have correspondingly increased by 75 per cent, in quantity and 94 per cent, in value during the same period. The chief centre of the butter industry is Western Siberia, which accounts for 60 per cent, of all the butter transported by rail. The profitable nature of the dairy industry has been the best safeguard against the diminu- tion of Russia's cattle stock, though the higher prices for cereals of the last few years has not 6o THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK been without its influence in diminishing the number of cattle. There are several noticeable features in Russian agriculture. The poverty of the cultivator and the destitution resulting from bad harv^ests occurs only too frequently. Much has been and is being done to remedy this, for Russian agriculture is undergoing a transition. The agrarian riots of 1905-6 were caused by dissatisfaction with the communal land system. The custom by which the strips of common land cultivated by the peasants were periodically redistributed as population increased brought much hardship in its train. Nor did the system make for good cultivation. To paraphrase a well known saying, what might be anyone's property is nobody's property. By the law of November 22, 1906, the land was apportioned in each commune or " mir " to the peasants who became the owners of the freehold. Those who were too poor to make a living out of the land allotted to them sold their new posses- sions, became labourers, or emigrated, as we shall see, to Siberia. The new and better system has brought new needs into existence, capital and co-operation. The Zemstoos and other associa- tions assist the farmer not only with capital, but also with expert advice, A marked increase in the number of these societies, as well as in imports of agricultural machinery have resulted. RUSSIAN PROSPECTS 6r The paternal assistance of the Russian Govern- ment to agriculture should be noted. The drought of 1911 brought cattle into the market. The Government allayed the peasants' natural anxiety and tided over the period by transporting fodder from the more favoured districts. The wheat crop of 1910 was an abundant one — the Govern- ment provided special credit facilities so that farmers should not be obhged to force their crops on the market. Another remarkable feature is the emigration to Siberia. Canada boasts its " 1000 a day." In one year, 1909, emigrants to the number of 700,000 went to Siberia. In 1910 and 1911 the ligures were 352,000 and 230,000, the falling off being due to bad harvests in Western Siberia. Not all who go arc successful in finding the land they require. In both years some 70,000 returned. In spite of this the figures are remark- able especially in view of the scanty transportation facilities. A line drawn from St. Petersburg in the West right across to the boundary of European Russia in the East would roughly divide the cultivated and uncultivated portion of Russia's vast Empire in Europe. It is to the south of the line that the main area of production lies. Rye and wheat are widely distributed. Oats are grown more in the Provinces lying just south of the line ; barley near the Black Sea and maize in the 62 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK Caucasus. Perhaps the most noticeable change in Russian agriculture of recent years has been the increase in sugar-beet cultivation, especially in the South-Western and Central provinces. The introduction of a root crop is a distinct advance in Russian agriculture reducing the bare fallow, still extensively resorted to as a means of resting and cleaning the land. Other important crops are sunflower seeds, Hnseed, and rape, also cotton grown in Central Asia and trans-Caucasia. A noticeable feature of transportation in Russia is the use made of rivers, lakes and canals as means of communication, the total water mileage, including Finland, amounting to 147,000 miles. The canal barges carry some 400 or 500 tons and the larger barges approximately three times as much. A portion of the wheat destined for ship- ment from Baltic ports is transhipped at Rybinsk from the large barges on the Volga and com- pletes the journey, some five hundred miles to St. Petersburg by canal. Russia as a source of our wheat supplies, as we have seen, is a very variable factor. This is partly due for reasons already stated, and partly to the fact that Rus- sian exports are sent more across her European frontiers than to us. — Further reference to this point is made later on in reference to butter exports. — We are not hkely to receive increased suppies from this source on an average, as DENMARK'S PROSPECTS 63 Russia is at the moment probably one of the most promising lields for industrial development not only in mining, oil, etc., but also for those industries which are working up the raw materials pro\-ided from her agriculture into manufactured articles. The low purchasing power of large num- bers of her population is but an index of the extent to which an increased consumption of foodstuffs, resulting from industrial development, would limit her exportable surplus. DEN.MARK AND HOLLAND Two old-world countries, Denmark and Hol- land, have by a specialisation in intensive culture marvellously developed their agriculture. Denmark is both an importer and exporter of agricultural products, imports consisting of bread- stuff s and butter chiefly from Siberia which is subsequently re-exported. Also large quantities of feeding stuffs, such as wheat offal, oilcake, maize, oats, etc., which form the raw materials of her exports of butter and bacon. From Den- mark the United Kingdom imports butter not far short of a third of her total Overseas supplies. The complimentary product of Denmark's dair^dng industry, bacon, of which her exports amouni to a total of 2,000,000 cwt., almost the whole total of which is sent to the United King- dom, account for o.-e half of our Overseas sup- 64 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK plies. Of the acreage under crops : wheat and rye account for, roughly, 1,100,000 acres, 1,500,000 acres are under barley, oats and mixed corn, and an even larger acreage under fo Ider and root crops. Holland's agricultural production is also largely engaged with dairy products, in this case taking the form of cheese, which almost doubles the exports of butter. Here the United Kingdom's purchases are considerably less than a quarter of Holland's total exports. Of recent years they have amounted to some 250,000 cwt,, with a tendency to decrease. Though only one-seventh of the amount received from Canada, the supplies reaching us from Holland rank third in our total cheese imports. The story of Holland's agriculture is somewhat similar to that of Denmark. Considerable quan- tities of breadstuffs and feeding-stuffs are im- ported. Perhaps the most noticeable difference IS the much larger acreage under sugar beet, resulting m an export of nearly 100,000 tons ; also a considerable acreage under vegetables which are largely grown for export. Holland is the principal external source of Belgium's supplies of mutton, some 52,000 sheep and 37,000 lambs being consigned to that country in 1911. Holland's cattle exports have recently shown a very considerable falling off. CHAPTER IV THE world's wheat trade Up to the present we have been engaged in review- ing the production of wheat in the principal sources from which importing countries draw their suppHes. The knowledge thus acquired enables us to appreciate better the problems involved by the world's requirements of bread- stuffs. During the five cereal years (ist August to 31st July), 1906-7 and 1910-11, international trade in wheat ranged from 76 million to 59 milhon quarters, the world's total production having varied during the same period from 460 million to 393 milhon, and the " reserves in sight " on ist August from 25 million to 12 million. Stated in percentages, the world's wheat imports have varied in these five years from 13 per cent, to 18 per cent, of the world's production. ^ With some exceptions, the destinations of the world's surplus wheat has been remarkably steady. The United Kingdom takes roughly 1 The figures which follow are taken from Broomhall's "Corn Trade News." E 6.5 66 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK some 25 million quarters per annum. During the period under review our imports have varied from 38 per cent, to 44 per cent, of the world's exports. Approximately, the importing countries may be set forth as follows : — Great Britain Germany Belgium ... Italy (variable), say Holland Switzerland Sweden ... Greece Denmark Norway ... Portugal ... Turkey and ex European countries 25,000,000 quarters. 9,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 900,000 900,000 600,000 400,000 250,000 10,000,000 64,550,000 The exports in quarters during the period 1906-7 to 1910-11 from the principal sources of supply show the following variations. Minimum. Maximum. U.S.A.— 9,000,000 1910-11 19,900,000 1907-08 Canada — 5,100,000 1906-07 8,570,000 1909-10 THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 67 Miuiinum. Maximum. Russia — 7,600,000 1907-08 28,800,000 igro-ii Balkan States — 2,900,000 1907-08 10,900,000 1910-11 India — 2,700,000 1907-0S 6,900,000 1910-H Argentine and Uruguay — 7,348,000 1909-10 16,300,000 1907-08 That these variations are in the main due to seasonal differences appears when the yield per acre, read in conjunction with the acreage under wheat, are examined. The supremacy of the United States as an exporter of wheat up to 1903 has already been referred to. From 1886 to i8g6 the exports in one year only fell below 11 million quarters, averaging for the period 1886-1896 nearly 18,000,000 quarters, and from 1897 to 1902 the average n'as as high as 26,660,000 quarters, — during the second period approximately 55 per cent, of the world's total annual exports. The gap in the world's supplies caused by America's smaller exports has principally been made up by the larger output of Canada and Argentina. A comparison of the variations in yield per acre in these countries with that of the United States, clearly shows that they are less reliable sources of supply, for, though the yield per acre in the United States is a low one, it has kept very steady 68 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK over a long period with a marked tendency to improve. Some indication of the causes which bring about these vicissitudes may help us to understand them. The weather conditions prevailing when ploughing for the coming crop is in progress, or the seed sown may not only affect the yield, but restrict the acreage. There follows the growing season, necessarily more prolonged in winter than in spring wheat, and finally the harvest. It is immediately preceding and at harvest time that the Argentine, and to a lesser degree, the Canadian conditions compare unfavourably with America. In both countries frost often does considerable damage to the crop when wheat is in flower or " in the milk." In the Argentine no period of bright sunshine to ripen the crop, or fine weather to harvest it can be expected, let alone relied upon. The Argentine crop of 1911-12, which promised exceedingly well up to the harvest, was seriously damaged, if not destroyed by bad weather. With Canada a much larger proportion of spring wheat — nine-tenths spring to one-tenth fall — as against two-fifths spring and three-iifths winter wheat in the States^ — throws the work of harvesting into a shorter period and extends it, owing to the higher latitude of Canada's wheat belt, into 1 The proportions of spring to fall wheat are those for 1911. THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 69 the season when frost may injure the grain before it is ripened, or bad weather make harvesting difficult, if not impossible. During the harvest of 1911 much wheat was spoilt by this cause. Thus, in addition to the risks of the growing period, both the Argentine and Canada have special harvesting risks. In considering the World's total production of breadstuffs, the importance of cereals other than wheat is apparent. In Western and Central Europe the rye crop is all-important. The Bulletin of the International Institute of Agricul- ture shows that in Russia in Europe the annual acreage under rye for the period, igoi to 19 10, averaged 69,400,000 acres, and that of Germany 15,000,000 acres, the production averaging during the same period 88,000,000 and 42,750,000 quar- ters per annum respectively, compared to a wheat acreage in Russia in Europe of 55,000,000 acres, and in Germany of 4,550,000 acres, with an aver- age production of 64,500,000 quarters and 15,600,000 quarters. The output of rye in Russia and Germany, it may be added, account for three- quarters of the world's production. It will be realised that any failure of the rye crop in Western or Central Europe must result in a large increase in wheat imports from other quarters. This was well seen in 1891, when the failure of the rye and wheat crops in Europe necessitated con- 70 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK siderable wheat shipments from the United States. As attention has been drawn to the variabihty of the crops of the Argentine and Canada when compared with that of the United States, some detailed consideration of the yields over a series of years is necessary. Again making use of the returns issued by the International Institute of Agriculture during the period 1901-10, the highest yield per acre for wheat in the Argentine is that of 1907 returned at i2|- bushels per acre. Once during the decade the yield has fallen to 6^ bushels per acre, or 48 per cent, below the return of the best year. One year it was 33 per cent, below, and two years 28 per cent. With regard to Canada the best year was 1902, with a yield of about 23 bushels per acre. In one year the yield dropped to 38 per cent, below 1902 ; in 1910 it fell 34 per cent, below, and in 1904. 33 per cent. With regard to AustraHa, the best year was 1909, with a yield of nearly 13 bushels. Excluding 1902, when the crop was practically a total failure with a yield of only 2 J bushels, in 1901 the yield was 44 per cent. ; in 1907, 39 per cent. ; and 1904, 36 per cent, below 1909. With regard to India and Russia, the returns do not show so great a variation. In India two years are 22 per cent, below the maximum of 12 bushels recorded in 1910, and WHEAT. Tabic ^hoivinji the variations in yield per acre in the under- mentioned countries, calculated as a percentage reduction to one decimal point, on the year of the highest yield during the period 1901 10. In the year of the niaximum yield, the actual yield is shown in bushels per acre. ! 1901 1902 1903 ' 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 Gt. Britain 0 4-3 12-0 22-8 4-3 7-5 1 14-0 bu ,hel. 32 5-6 1 11 6 U.S.A. ... 3-1 6-S 17-0 19-7 10'2 10-2 •G 102 Canada ... 9fi 23 i!ia-T. 24-8 33"o 11-7 9-1 38 31 12-2 34 India 1:3 '3 7-0 12 1-G 22-5 50 15-8 22-5 15-8 12 Argentiiu: 4S-5 15 -8 9-0 7-1 28-6 17-4 12-6 28 33-2 29-4 Australia ... 4i-5 88-0 2'3 3G-7 187 18-7 39-0 13-2 12-8 5-5 Russia — — — — ■ — 13o 2 0 9-6 41 72 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK two years are 15 per cent, below. Taking Russia in Europe and Asia together, one year shows a falHng off of 13 per cent, below the maximum, which is recorded as slightly over gl^ bushels for 1908, and for 1909. An analysis of the United States returns shows a maximum of 14^- bushels in 1906. In 1904 the yield was about ii| bushels or slightly under 20 per cent, below, in 1903, 17 per cent., and 1907, slightly over 10 per cent, below the maximum yield. The significance of these figures is unmistak- able. It is impossible to escape the conclusion that the world's wheat supplies are more liable to violent fluctuations than during the period in which rchance on the United States was the main feature of the world's wheat trade. A surprise either in the shape of a large diminution in the world's surplus crop, or a glut may result. It may perhaps be urged that a partial crop failure either in more than one of the principal exporting countries, or in that of one of the important consumers which rely to a large extent on home- grown supplies, is unlikely to occur at the same time. The objection may be answered by point- ing out that as the world's imports, as we have already seen, are only from 13 per cent, to 18 per cent, of the world's total production, it requires but an inconsiderable diminution of the world's total supphcs to bring about a sensible THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 73 stringency. In the cereal year from ist August, 1907, to the 31st July, 1908, the world's total exports dropped some 8,000,000 quarters from those recorded in the previous cereal year. The following crop season exports were again con- siderably below those of 1906-7, on this occasion to the amount of 6,000,000 quarters. That the falling off in exports was due not to diminished demand, but to a shortage of supply is best shown by the considerable rise in price which occurred. During these two years Canada's crops fell 38 per cent, and 31 per cent, successively from the yield recorded in 1902, which was the best year during the decade. In the States both 1907 and 1908 were 10 per cent, below the best year (1906), The Argentine, which may be said to have saved the situation in 1907 with the best crop of the period, only had a moderate crop in 1908. The reserves in sight while these changes were going on, are instructive. Estimated on ist August, 1907, at 25,000,000 quarters, they are returned at 16,000,000 on the same date of the subsequent year, and 12,000,000 in 1909. It will be remem- bered that it was in 1909 that the average official price of wheat in the United Kingdom was re- turned at 36s. I id. per quarter, the highest recorded since 189 1, when the price was 37s. od. So far we have been dealing with the variations in the crop returns of the exporting countries. 74 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK Equally important are the harvests of countries like France which have a large acreage under wheat. The year 1910 was marked by a reduction of the French crop equal to about 23 per cent, on the ten-yearly average, with the result that France entered the list of importing countries in 1911 to the tune of 10,000,000 quarters. As we have already seen, there have been crop failures in Europe before, which have been met, as in the late 'seventies and in 1890, by largely increased imports from the United States. Is the abihty of the present surplus exporters of wheat equal to such an emergency if it were to arise ? There are many differences in the situation at the present time as compared to those ruling in the 'seventies or in 1890. The earlier period was that, as we have already seen, when the States, partly from choice and partly from necessity, were throwing their whole impetus into the developemcnt of agriculture. In 1890, the process was still going on in spite of low prices. The failure of the Russian crop coincided with the remarkably good American crop and the cricis was overcome. The low prices ruling at the time undoubtedly helped. Cheap wheat meant large farmers reserves, and the increased demand was met from invisible supplies. In fact, so confident were American farmers that the United States held the key of the market that a THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 75 considerable amount of wheat was held up by them during the winter of 1891 in the belief that still higher prices would be obtainable. High prices drew out invisible supplies all over the world and those American farmers who had held on to their stocks suffered. The higher prices ruling for wheat at the present time is the most important difference between the situation now and that of 189 1. It is unlikely that invisible stocks in the aggregate are so extensive. Another feature is the high values ruling for cereal feeding stuffs at the present time. A deficiency in wheat cannot be so cheaply met by the use of alternative cereals. Reviewing the position as a whole, it is impossible to avoid the conclusion that a serious wheat shortage would under present conditions be accompanied by a marked increase in prices. That wheat is a pioneer crop is a matter of common knowledge, but it is doubtful whether the full significance of this is sufficiently reahsed. The passage from the U.S.A. Agricultural Year Book already quoted in reference to wheat grow- ing when the Western prairies were being opened up cannot afford to be forgotten. " The wheat farmer is far less a farmer than a speculator." The observation cannot be held to be equally true wherever new lands are being developed. It apphes probably with equal truth to Canada at 76 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK the present day. Essentially the value of land must depend on the remunerative nature of agriculture. It may be that profits lie in the future, as was the case when America's expansion was going on. So long as lands in a progressive community remain to be developed some one will be found to colonise them partly with the inten- tion of making a livelihood, and partly with the hope as population increases, and transport facilities become available, to write up the value of his property. Though it would be too much to say that this movement will go on whether farming conditions ensure profits or not, un- doubtedly the income-profit from land is only one factor. The provision of railway facilities is an important part of the development of new areas. The railway pioneer looks ahead to forestall competitors and joins hands with the speculator- farmer. In fact, the obstacles, whether physical or financial, affecting the exploitation of trans- portation are probably a much more important factor in the development of new countries than the economic conditions affecting the utilisation of the land. At the present time, Canada is the country in which a combination of these factors have been working together at full pressure towards the development of agriculture. Specu- lation in agricultural land is precluded by the Homestead Laws, which require occupation and THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 77 cultivation as a preliminary to a freehold title. The sale of " improved farms " is an indication of the way in which land dealing is now directed At the present time, one of the railway com- panies has organised the sale to immigrants of its lands provided with the necessary buildings and stock. With regard to the Argentine, the conditions are not generally so favourable, not through any lack of progressive policy on the part of the rail- way companies, but through the insufficient use made of colonisation laws. The large tracts of land held by individuals has, as we have already seen, assisted the development of the pastoral industry. With regard to wheat growing, the absence of well considered measures for assisting the colonist to become an owner of land must have retarded production. In addition, immigrants coming to the Argentine are not possessed of the means to purchase land and stock like many of the European and American immigrants entering Canada. ^ Land speculation does not conduc i to the same extent to the development of the country. The foregoing amply demonstrates that supply and demand are not the only or even the most 1 See Appendix. It would appear that the emi- gration into Canada is checking agriculture in the States; 78 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK important factors in settling the world's wheat production. At present this regulator of produc- tion is more effective than in the period of low prices when wheat was extensively grown at a loss. To quote the United States Agricultural Year Book, " the farmer has become strong as a seller and able to hold his crop for fair prices." This will tend to steady prices in both directions. ^ Two factors should be mentioned which make for firmer prices. One is the better organisation of farmers' credit. In Canada, legislative action enabling banks to advance on wheat held in farmers' stores preventing the rush of wheat shipments before the close of navigation, in Argentina the building of elevators, which will enable advances on wheat deposited therein to be obtained. The other factor is the present credit famine in the financial world, which may seriously curtail the extension of railway con- struction. Yet another point to be remembered is the diminished output from the Balkan States as a result of the recent unfortunate war. The outstanding feature of the world's wheat supplies at the present time is the wide crop variations of the principal exporting countries. All other considerations are subject to this. To sum up the present position of the world's ' If wheat prices go up farmers will grow more, and vice vena. THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 79 wheat supplies. Increased population has been accompanied by increased wheat acreage. The preface to the Agricultural Statistics of the Board of Agriculture for 1911, recently published, shows that comparing the aggregate of the returns of all wheat eating countries, where available, popula- tion has increased 13 per cent, since 1901 and the wheat area of the world 229 per cent. That these figures cannot themselves form the basis of a conclusion is fully realised by the Govern- ment statistian. Consumption of wheat per head and yield per acre, as we have seen, vary widely ; an increase of population in a country where consumption of wheat per capita is high being of greater moment than where it is low, and equally, an increase of wheat acreage in, let us say, the United Kingdom with its average yield of thirty- one bushels per acre is of far greater import- ance than the same increase in one of the newer countries. The great variations in the acreage yield of the surplus-wheat-producing countries cannot fail to make the supply more unstable. In the development of American agriculture, the constant aim to make the farmer less dependent on the bulk products of agriculture and especially to find alternative crops for wheat, the sale of which depends on a limited market, has been noticed. Apart from the increased home demand for the concentrated food products in all the 8o THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK producing countries which we have reviewed, there is a widespread tendency on the part of farmers to grow for export the more valuable products instead of wheat. Were it not that wheat is the most adaptable and the hardiest of cereals, the production would undoubtedly be considerably less, unless prices were to rise appreciably above the present level. In summarising the history of wheat prices during the last thirty years, and assigning the causes of the variations, we are met with almost as great difficulties as in estimating the future. From the period '7i-'74 there was a tumble of los. per quarter to the 45s. level of 'y^-'82. This may be called " the American prairie " fall ; the second drop was one of 13s. from the last men- tioned price to the 32s. level of '84-91, This may be called the " British-Indian " fall. The third, a fall of 9s., to the 23s. level of '94-'95 ; this may be characterised as the " Argentine " fall.^ With- out going further into the causes of the fall which were so much discussed at the time, we can point to two undoubted circumstances which affected the increased exports from India in the second, and those of the Argentine in the third " tumble." WTiile in India the fall of the rupee stimulated the grain dealers to purchase corn in the country districts where the rupee still held its old purchas- * Broomhall : The Corn Trade Year Book. THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 8i ing power, and sell the wheat for export on a gold basis, the spurt in Argentine exports was due to a similar cause, the financial crisis of i8go causing an enormous depreciation in the paper currency of the Republic. All the expenses entailed in harvesting the crop were paid for in depreciated currency, the wheat being sold for gold. Both these causes for the fall in prices came at a time when, as we have already seen, the development of America's western prairies was in full swing. Though the exceptional nature of these influences on prices cannot be gainsaid, there is no guarantee that similar exceptional events might not again occur and have a similar effect. On the other hand, it does appear to be extremely improbable at this stage of the world's progress that the agricultural development of the United States will be paralleled elsewhere. The wheat trade, like every market for primary products, is continually discounting the future. Acreage under crop and the crop prospects of the principal producing countries are followed from day to day. Stocks are known and invis- ible supplies estimated. To gauge the position at any time statistical information must be read in the hght of the considerations already set forth and any particular circumstances of the moment. If a general conclusion may be hazarded, it would be that prices are not likely to fall below the 82 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK present level unless exceptionally good harvests occur simultaneously. Prices at the moment are not sufficienly high in themselves to stimulate production, except where high yields and low cost of production are possible. Where wheat is Hobson's choice it will be growTi. When alterna- tive uses for land become possible, it will tend to diminish till the more advanced stage of mixed farming and crop rotation obtains. N.B. — No mention has been made of the difference in quality of wheat, as the subject is somewhat outside the scope of this book. CHAPTER V THE world's meat trade The world's meat trade docs not admit of so concise a summary as that of wheat and bread- stuffs. Canned products, jerked beef, hog pro- ducts, Hve stock on the hoof, and lastly frozen and chilled beef are some of the headings under which the trade might be divided. We shall here give the greatest prominence to the frozen and chilled meat industry. The domination of the British market in all branches v.'ith the sole exception of jerked beef, which is not shipped to the United Kingdom, is remarkable. It is doubtful whether the export of meat products and live cattle from Australasia and North and South America to all destinations other than Great Britain, and that across the political boundaries of Europe added together would aggregate Great Britain's gigantic total of £47,000,000, reached in 1911. Before proceeding to summarise the present position it may not be unprofitable to point out some essential considerations. A shortage of meat supplies cannot be easily adjusted by increased 83 84 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK production. i\Ieat, especially frozen or chilled meat, requires special transport facilities and a complex organisation to render supplies available. Natural reproduction cannot easily overtake an increasing demand. With horned stock an annual increase of 70 per cent, of the breeding stock is as high as can be relied upon in the countries from which we arc at present drawing our supplies. Sheep cannot be regarded as much more prolific, the greater tendency to ailments of various kinds offsetting the higher natural increase. The enormous supphes both of beef and mutton im- ported into the United Kingdom have made con- sumers oblivious to these fundamental conditions. A shortage cannot fail to bring out the difficulty of regaining an equilibrium when once it has been disturbed. Our brief review has shown diminished sheep flocks. Whether it be in such widely separated countries as Argentina, Russia, the United States or Canada, the cause for this decrease is the same : the plough is displacing them. New Zealand, with 24,000,000, and Uruguay with some 26,000,000 sheep are the principal exceptions. Austraha's recent decline is mainly due to an unfavourable season, a rcmhider of the terrible drought period from which recovery has only recently been made. In spite of this latest set-back, the Common- wealth of Austraha, with its 93,000,000 sheep, THE WORLD'S MEAT TRADE 85 easily heads the hst, not only for numbers, but also for the perfection to which sheep management and wool production have attained. In Europe, during the last thirty years, there has been a very marked diminution ; Germany from 19 mihion in 1883 to 7} miUion in 1907 ; France from 22 million in 1885 to 16 million in 1911. The same tendency is seen in Denmark and Belgium, France has supplemented her supplies by imports on the hoof from Algeria varying from i to i^- million sheep per annum. Reverting to the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand breeders have succeeded in producing a dual purpose type, resulting in a good fleece, and a good carcase. Her exports amount to no less than 25 per cent, of her total stock, some 6,000,000 carcases a year, of which two-thirds are lamb. Though we may look for a continuance of exports on the same scale, recent advices from the Com- monwealth seem to point to an extension of the dairying industry, rather than sheep farming. Australia's exports only amount to about 4 per cent, of her sheep stock ; the high values ruhng for merino wool at the present time encouraging the treatment of the meat industry as a bye- product of wool-growing. Argentina's chief stock has been developed on the same lines as that of New Zealand — the dual purpose sheep. Though possessed of many advantages over her principal 86 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK rival, sheep management has not been brought to the same state of perfection. The exports represent approximately 7 per cent, of the total stock. In the sub-continent Uruguay and Pata- gonia are already making up for the deficiency of Argentine supplies. Though there are no figures showing even approximately, the number of sheep in Patagonia, the exports of wool indicate that they are steadily increasing.^ Patagonia's exports in 1912 amounted to 294,306 carcases, and Uruguay's 331,326, together 625,632 carcases. Some explanation of the much greater proportion of exports to total stock in New Zealand as com- pared to Argentina and Australia may be given. Favourable climate together with a high level of good management and with a natural increase probably averaging about 90 per cent, are un- doubtedly the principal factors. Accessibility to market is another factor, a considerable pro- portion of the total credited to the Argentine scarcely counting for the export demand. The rate of increase in the Republic cannot be taken as more than 70 per cent. In New South Wales in 1910, a dry season, it is not put higher than 20 per cent. These differences serve to emphasise the disadvantages where sheep breeders have their flocks distributed over wide areas. » Bales of wool exported from Falkland Islands and PuntaArenas: — 1909,49,000; 1910,58,000; 1911,66,000, THE WORLD'S MEAT TRADE 87 The diminished beef siippHes of Canada and the States was seen to have been caused, Hke that of the smaller sheep stock, by the advent of the plough. The passage already cited from the United States Year Book of Agriculture for 1909, cannot be too often quoted. " More profitable crops have made more valuable land and cheap beef is not the product of high priced land." While the competition of agriculture has dimin- ished the cattle stock, the demands of increasing population have only been satisfied by trenching upon the breeding stock. " The Breeders' Gaz- ette," published in Chicago, in reviewing the cattle trade during the year 1912, fully bears out this view of the position in the United States. — " The long-predicted cattle shortage passed from the theoretical into the actual stage." — " Every week's market run during 1913 was a draft on future supply." — " It so happened that during this period of scarcity, industrial condi- tions reflected prosperity creating heavy demands for beef in face of a limited supply." The same issue of this journal notes that thin cows had been sold for canning and that the high prices for veal had led to the slaughter of calves in thousands. The shortage both of beef and mutton in Canada cannot be gainsaid. The position in Argentina has already been sufficiently sum- 88 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK marised, nor can large shipments from Uruguay with a cattle stock estimated at 9 million head, be looked for. The maintenance of supplies in the quantities which we have recently been receiving, even if the most optimistic view of the position be taken, appears to be precarious. Complementary to the question of supplies is that of demand. Will the door to imports of frozen meat into Europe which up till recently has been " banged, bolted and barred " by hostile tariffs and veterinary regulations be opened sufficiently wide to admit appreciable quantities ? Some progress has been made. The Italian tariff has been reduced to 12 frs.^ and the Swiss tariff to 10 frs. per 100 kilos. Imports through France have been freed of the Inspection Tax of i fr. per 100 kilos. During 1912 the aggregate of all frozen meat to Europe, of which Italy and Switzerland took the largest amount, totalled 20,000 tons, showing an increase of 3,000 tons on the figures of 1911. Though Holland and Bel- gium are likely consumers, and both Italy and Switzerland will gradually increase their imports, undoubtedly the interest of the future hes with the attitude to be taken up by Germany. The relaxation of the duties in Germany has taken the form of allowing certain municipahties to import meat on a reduced scale of duty for a certain ' 100 Kilos = 2 20 lbs. I Franc =iod. THE WORLD'S MEAT TRADE 89 period. The antagonism of the butchers has thus been aroused against the Municipal meat shops, adding another element of opposition to the policy supported by the agrarian party. By utihsing every scrap of the less valuable parts of the carcase for sausages, meat supplies of a kind have been available. With the increasing popu- lation and the growth of luxury, it can scarcely be doubted that the policy of restricting meat imports has reached the breaking point. Though the veterinary regulations which require cer- tain portions of the intestines to be kept for inspection on landing of an ox carcase have so far prevented beef imports, the regulations in respect of mutton are not prohibitive. Two explanations of the small supplies both of beef and mutton on the Continent as com- pared to those grown in the United Kingdom may be given. The most important is the periodical outbreak of foot and mouth disease. An article by Professor Bang, of Copenhagen, which appeared in the Journed of the Board of Agriculture of November, 1912, enables us to appreciate the disastrous effects of this scourge. The losses suffered in Germany in 1892 when : 1,500,000 cattle, 2,000,000 sheep, 400,000 pigs, were affected are estimated to have cost that coun- 90 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK try £5,000,000. An outbreak even more severe than that of 1892 occurred in Europe in 1911. INFECTED CENTRES. German Empire ... 37180 Sept. 15th, 1911. Austria ... ... 111382 Oct. nth, 1911. Croatia and Slavonia 45562 Sept. 27th, 1911, France ... ... 33966 Aug. — 1911. Belgium 5225 1911. Holland 18000 Italy. In the week of August 6th, 191 1, 18,000 animals were attacked in addition to 107,000 animals over from previous weeks. Another cause is the general absence of fencing on the Continent. With increased cost of labour the tending of cattle and sheep by herdsmen becomes impracticable. Though the space occu- pied by fences in Great Britain is often the subject of comment by visitors, it has been the means of keeping up our stock of cattle and sheep, and of maintaining fertility. Another factor of Con- tinental meat supplies is the striking diminution in American exports of preserved and canned meat of all kinds. An important source of supply is thereby withdrawn, making the importation of frozen meat into Europe, all the more probable. We have already pointed out how wheat is THE WORLD'S MEAT TRADE 91 the pioneer crop. In the same way cattle is the pioneer animal crop. By stocking land with cattle the ground is consolidated and a firm seed bed for the better grasses is made. Districts formerly stocked by cattle are turned into sheep runs, which are often more profitable. Many stages have to be passed before the cultivation of forage plants such as lucerne which largely increases the carrying capacity of the land can be reached. We must therefore look to the waste spaces of the earth for an increase in our meat supplies. A territory sufficiently extensive to tempt development by those possessed of ample capital. No better barometer of the deve- lopment of the cattle industry could be named than the increase in fencing as the Argentine imports of wire fencing sufficiently prove. ^ Capi- tal is needed not only for this purpose, but also because losses, which would ruin the small man, must occur in the early stages. The capital locked up in breeding cows, and young stock, where steers are kept for three or four years before they are marketed, may easily amount to many thousands of pounds. Hence the tendency amongst farmers, seen in all countries to buy young cattle either to sell as " stores," or for * Imports of wire fencing into the Argentine for the years: — 1900, 36,567 tons; 1905, 66,876 tons; 1910, 91,309 tons. 92 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK finishing. Breeding is neglected. On the Con- tinent the use of cattle for draught purposes is a way of getting some return on the capital invested, while the cattle are growing. With the exception of Australia, which we have already dealt with, the most promising areas for the cattle industry are Rhodesia and the southern portion of Brazil. ^ Mexico also has possibilities, but this may be looked upon as a reserve supply for the United States. Neither of these countries can expect their first exports to be frozen beef. They must be content to begin with such products as tinned meat and beef extract. In both countries there are difficulties to be overcome, but in neither do they appear insur- mountable. It would appear that one of the first results of the demand for beef cattle is likely to be an increased call for bulls of the beef breeds from British live stock breeders. Each breed has its supporters^Shorthorns or Durhams as they are often called abroad, Herefords, Aberdeen Angus, and Dcvons. In the Argen- tine, Shorthorns are generally the favourites, though it may be mentioned that the highest price recorded for bullocks was paid for five Hereford steers at the Buenos Ayres Show in > British East Africa should also be mentioned. Some Imports of beef have ahcady reached ns from Venezuela. THE WORLD'S MEAT TRADE 93 July, 1910 ; £1,004 per steer or i8d. per ounce ! ^ The relative advantages of Shorthorn v, Hereford are hotly contested in Queensland. The following quotation is from the Queensland Government's publication on cattle : — " Here fords arc a hardy healthy frugal type of cattle and are about the quickest recoverers of any breed after a spell of adverse conditions. It is because of this fact that they are becoming more popular with breeders and as a consequence their numbers show an appreciable increase every year." The recent considerable exports of Hereford bulls to the States after a lapse of twelve years, shows that attention is again being directed to the beef breeds. The present position of our Overseas meat sup- plies must be one of considerable anxiety for the consumer. Even the supplies of meat received from the Argentine may be said to engender a feeling of security which the position by no means warrants. The price of beef in Buenos Ayres itself is at the moment higher than that ruling in London ! - With mutton the consumer's 1 The purchase was made for one of the Freezing Companies. * 5jd. per lb. for meat not so good as that exported. "La Prensa " a leading dailj^ recently discussed the Live Stock shortage, and notes the introduction into some of the rural markets in the Province of Buenos Ayres of horseflesh for local consumption. 94 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK outlook is not quite so gloomy, but both with beef and mutton the demands of Europe and the wants of Canada, and the United States, are unknown factors which must be kept in mind.^ It should also be remembered that imports of frozen meat to Europe are more likely to take the form of mutton than of beef, and that the demands of America and Canada will probably be met by mutton imports from Australasia. In the United Kingdom and Ireland itself indica- tions point to a marked shortage of sheep and cattle. Perhaps the stimulation of pig breeding, which present prices is bringing about, will, to some extent, make up for the diminished supplies of beef and mutton, but here again a reservation is necessary, for skim milk instead of being utilised as pig food is treated for shipment as casein for use in manufacture. ^ Deahng with prices of meat, perhaps the most noticeable feature of recent years, has been the way in which home-bred beef and mutton have consistently averaged considerably higher prices than imported supplies. The recent rise in price of home-killed beef, in face of the ample supplies reaching us from the Argentine can partly be * Since the above was written Th» Times, of May lytli, reported the landing of a large shipment of mutton and lamb from Australia at San Francisco and gave particulars of plans for further shipments. * In Canada and New Zealand. THE WORLD'S MEAT TRADE 95 explained by the negligible amount of American chilled beef now exported. In view of the high point of excellence to which Argentine cattle have been graded up, it appears anomalous that North American chilled beef has commanded consider- ably higher prices than Argentine beef. The explanation is to be found partly in the more favourable conditions under which the compara- tively short transportation is conducted, and partly to the fact that the American stockbreeder, with a twenty years' start has produced a more perfectly developed steer. The second explana- tion is the complete cessation of imports on the hoof from North America. " Port Killed " beef was the most formidable competitor of " Home grown." The possibility of this trade being reopened is so remote that the sale of the site occupied by Foreign Cattle Wharfs at Deptford, belonging to the City Corporation has been proposed. Reverting to meat prices, it is doubtful whether the consumer, at home has felt the full effect of the increased wholesale price now ruling. A conlirmation of this statement may be given. A company engaged in importing beef, and selling wholesale, is able to show increased profits while one exclusively engaged in distribution was unfavourably affected. It may be objected that the present rise in the 96 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK price of meat is due to special and transitory causes. The drought of 1911 caused a falhng off in the sheep and cattle stock of the United King- dom, and the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in 19 1 2 dislocated the meat trade. On the Con- tinent the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in 1911 had disastrous effects. These unfortunate occurrences would not of themselves have been sufficient to cause a considerable rise in price, had they not come at a time when imports from the North American Continent had so largely fallen off. Amongst much that is alarming to meat consumers, there appear one or two considerations which to some extent offset the tendency to higher prices. The present high price ruling for hides, included in what in England is known as the " fifth quarter," reduces the net cost of the car- case. In fact the high prices ruling for leather should give additional weight to any well-consi- dered measures taken with a view to preventing the indiscriminate slaughter of young calves in the United Kingdom.^ In much the same way the better price of wool should stimulate the breeding of sheep. Though Co-operation is somewhat ^ See Board of Agriculture Journal, Nov., 1912. lu the issue of August, 191 1, a correspondent shows that over one million calves are wasted yearly, almost exactly the number required to produce "the beef which we annually import. THE WORLD'S MEAT TRADE 97 outside our subject it may be stated witliout fear of contradiction that there is no agricultural industry in the United Kingdom more in need of re-organisation than the preparing and selling of wool. It is hard to see liow this could be effected except by means of Co-operation amongst farmers. Home-grown meat at any rate for the present has httle to fear from foreign competition. An adjustment between the conflicting interests of dairying and meat production is the most urgent need of the moment. Early maturity of cattle and sheep can be practised to greater advantage at home than abroad, perhaps we may go so far as to say that with the exception of lamb-raising, it is not in vogue abroad. T'ne Times of June gth, 1913, reports shipnaents to date for current year from the Argentine : — Beef qiiartevs. — 1,621,000, January ist to June 5tl;, 1912 ; 1,930,000, June 1st to June 5th, 1913. Increase this year to date 309,000 quarters. Mutton and Lamb carcases. — 1,471,000, January- ist to June 5th, 1912 ; 1,225,000, January ist to June 51)1, 1913. Decrease this year to date 246,000 carcases. The increase of benf shipments is due to special causes. Particulars relating to the Dairy Industry of Various Countries. DENMARK. Co-operative Dairies Others, about - . - - . - 1,188 250 SIBERIA. Tomsk— Butter Factories - Brandies - . . . - 2,294 1,950 CANADA. Cheese Factories. Creameries. Ontario - - 1083 112 Quebec - • 1094 548 Combined Factories. 39 523 Total in Dominion 2291 811 570 NEW ZEALAND. Priv.ite diito. Creameries - - 172 210 Cheese Factories - 224 17 Some Creameries have as many as thirty Skimming Stations attached to them where the farmers' milk is separated. AUSTRALIAN BUTTER FACTORIES. New South Wales Victoria - - - - South Australia West Australia Tasmania - - . . - 181 82 - 52 3 - 2G VICTORIA. 344 Cream Separators in use in 1905 - ,- 1910 - 15,710 27.307 NEW SOUTH WALES. 1910. Butter made on Farms „ „ in Factories Milk Produced „ Separated on Farms Cheese made on Farms „ „ in Factories Bacon and Ham cured on Farms ,, ,, ,, in Factories - 5,120,000 lbs. 71,498,000 „ 235,577,000 galls. 176,838,000 „ - 1,298,000 lbs. 3,892,000 „ - 2,400,000 „ 10.183.000 „ CHAPTER VI DAIRY PRODUCE, PIG-BREEDING AND FEEDING- STUFFS Dairying may take the form either of milk, butter or cheese. Milk, owing to its bulk and perishability, is not to a large degree a matter of international trade. Indirectly it affects our present point of view. The growth of population is constantly increasing milk consumption and tending to diminish the export of dairy produce. The sale of milk precludes pig-breed- ing, that important complementary industry of butter and cheese-making. Butter-making is the most highly specialised of any agricultural industry. Though the export of chilled or frozen meat involves an extensive organisation in which every part of the animal is made use of, the stock-breeder's share of the business ends with the sale of his stock. With dairying the producer is in constant touch with the creamery whose interest it is to assist the farmer to increase his output. As an educative influence in agriculture, butter-making is un- approached. Certain common features wherever 99 100 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK the industry is conducted are noticeable. Butter manufacture must be conducted on wholesale methods. Whether the farmer separates the cream and keeps the skim milk as in many districts in Austraha and Canada, or sends the fresh milk to the creamery as in Denmark or Ireland, butter, the finished article, is produced on a wholesale scale. The increased output of butter brought about by co-operative dairies cannot be better illustrated than by quoting the case of Ireland, where the increased production during recent years under the stimulus of Sir Horace Plunkett's organisation is well known. Though the cheese-making is not to the same extent dependent on a system of factory production, it is extensively organised on similar lines. The review of American agriculture showed that Canadian cheese successfully competed with the American product, as a result of better organ- isation under the supervision of the Canadian Government. Hog products, to adopt the Ameri- can term, can be so conveniently combined with the production of butter and cheese that the subject has been deferred till this chapter, instead of being included under meat. The fluctuations in the price of pigs is pro- verbial. A constant see-saw between plentiful supply and low prices, and a dearth accompanied by high prices occurs. Several causes account for DA[RY PRODUCE, ETC. loi this. In Great Britain as elsewhere pigs are more liable to disease than any domestic animal. A cause of the constantly recurring over-produc- tion is the much quicker rate of natural increase in swine than with cattle and sheep. When feeding-stuffs are obtainable at prices which enable bacon to be produced at a profit increased pig-breeding results. On the other hand, a rise in feeding-stuffs unaccompanied by a corresponding rise in bacon instantly checks production. Bacon and ham, like butter, must be prepared for market on a large scale. Uniform quahty implies grading and uniform treatment in curing. Though " home cured " may be better, bulk supply can only be produced by a bacon factory. The recent substantial increase in the price of butter is partly due to the drought experienced in Europe in 19 ii. The diminished supplies from Europe in that year were made up by increased receipts from Australia, the total imports from all sources falling off by only some 20,000 cwt. compared to 1910. Imports from Europe in 1912 recovered to the total received in 1910, but chiefly owing to the considerably diminished receipts from Australia the returns show a falling off of approximately 300,000 cwt. as compared to 191 1. For the current year up to the end of April there is a faUing off of 60,000 cwt. It 102 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK cannot be said that the shortage in a total of 4,300,000 cwt. imported has been substantial. The considerable rise in values recorded is an apt illustration of the economic principle that when demand overtakes supply, prices tend to register an increase, apparently out of all proportion to the actual shortage. Though butter at home is still produced for local wants and made on the farm, it is clear that to compete with imported supplies it must be produced wholesale through the agency of a creamery. The movement for creameries is on the increase, and in districts which are not devoted to milk supply they would be of great value. One or two bacon factories have been erected thereby enabling dairy farmers to market their pigs, fed from the waste products of the dairy, to the best advantage. With regard to the future of dairy produce, the increased demands of Canada for butter from Australasia and that of the con- suming centres of Europe for Siberian and Danish butter are likely to keep prices firm. Through the agency of a creamery the sale of Home made butter direct to the consumer becomes possible, as the considerable quantities sent through the post from the Irish creameries show. Under such conditions the best home butter is likely to command substantial prices. The extensive use of butter substitutes which DAIRY produce; ETC. 103 have now been brought to a high degree of perfection, and which has received an impetus by the high prices of butter, is hkely to affect the price of farm-house butter coming irregularly to the market. The particulars given on the opposite page showing the large extent to which the movement for creameries, often worked on co-operative hues, has developed in the principal countries exporting butter, will, it is hoped, not be lost on home producers. So far an all important matter to the producer of dairy produce and meat, and indirectly to the wheat-consuming countries, has not been treated in an adequate manner. In the review of American agriculture, mention has been made of the exports of feeding-stuffs which it was com- plained, enabled the Dutch and Danish producers of butter, cheese, and bacon, to compete with the American grower of the same foodstuffs. In a brief notice of the dairy exports from Denmark and Holland mention has been made of the large quantities of feeding-stuffs which provide these industries with raw material for their finished products. Perhaps one of the most remarkable novelties of the world's agricultural exports of recent years has been the shipment of Soya beans from ]\Ianchuria and the large increase of grain exports from India. The sunflower-seed cake 104 THE FARMERS OUTLOOK sent from Russia to Denmark and Holland is another instance of the same kind. The demand for dairy and meat products in Europe and the falHng off of American maize shipments have stimulated the production of feeding-stuffs in other countries. Exports of maize, oats, barley, beans, linseed, peas, cake, cotton and rape seed from Argentina, India and Russia have been on a large scale. We have already noticed that the production of feeding- stuffs is one of the alternatives open to agri- culturists in most countries. With higher prices ruling for meat and dairy produce it must be expected that the growing demand for feeding- stuffs will tend to curtail wheat growing abroad. The official statistics relating to brewing and distilling show the large quantities of malt and corn employed. Though the malt and corn used in breweries has diminished some seven million bushels since 1899, the returns for 1911 show that fifty-one million bushels were employed in addi- tion to some fourteen million bushels used for distilling. Brewers' grains are largely used as a feeding-stuff for dairy cows. The practice of drying grains by a new process has made these bi-products of the breweries more easy of con- veyance, thus opening out a wider market. The imports of feeding-stuffs should not make us lose sight of the serious disad\'antage to which the DAIRY PRODUCE, ETC. 105 home producer has been subjected by the dechne of the old grist-mills which formed so important an adjunct of our cereal cultivation prior to the fall in wheat prices. The changes brought about in mining by ths introduction of the roller mill, together with the increased imports of wheat, have resulted in a concentration of the milling industry at the ports. The Danish and the Dutch dairymen, assisted by cheap sea transport, have been able to successfully compete for corn offals from our mills. The absence of cheap bran and sharps is severely felt by the cottager and small farmer. It is the feeding-stuff with which he habitually feeds his pig and his poultry.^ Throughout this book reference has been made to the urgent necessity of bringing up more calves on dairy farms. The waste of our meat supplies entailed by sending them to market when less than a week old cannot be excused on the ground that the bringing up of calves would entail a large consumption of milk. Of recent ^'■ears carefully prepared calf meals have been put on the market making it possible to bring up calves with a minimum of milk. It is to be hoped that dairy farmers will avail themselves of these milk substi- tutes. Reverting to meat production, the possi- bihties of early maturity and rapid fattening ' Exports of bran, pollard, an^l other offals amount annually to about five million cut. io6 THE FARMER'S OUTLOOK which the present prices for beef render profitable should largely increase the demand for feeding- stuffs of all kinds. The table on the opposite page shows the large quantities of feeding-stuffs annually imported. Ov cc C5 c m c^ "Sp 'T3 rt p ^ ccT PLi o s to CD a> "-• '-^ '-' CO c- Q ^j ^ 2 '£, % c3 CO o o 5 fO cr7 CD o 6 «T c~ CO o S o —' cm' -l" ^§ en c3 .J 8 CD to cvi" co" '3 it CO CO oo K) ro to ro "s"~" 00 C3- t~ 1 CD to • 'X CJ_ OT o o_ w --^ oT 1^" LO to" CC CD c- O O CO CO rr CVJ «■" c~ c> oo" r-l g g g s 1 CO ro (D 1 6 a: 5 co" g' § " cc CD CD lO 00 CD _ cr> CO \J-> i>- 1 .' a- 00 ; ^ t>^ r>.r co' to' i O' S CD CD_ ?; CD to ^ irritish Agriculture. If i^iblic Opinion in the United States,' which is still able to send us foodstuffs in considerable quantities, is seriously concerned as to die luuu'e of food supplies, surely it is time that we were up and doing. (3ur countryside can >nll boast sturdy rural workers of all classes. Onct; convinced that the period of apathy and neglect has passed away a new feehng of confidence and security will arise, resulting ui a largely increased supply of food- stuffs for the Nation. ' " Tlic look covers a far 'A'idcr ilcld than ihc title suirc^sts. 129 APPENDIX I Extracts from two Articles published in The Times of March 21 and 22, 1913. Reprinted by permission. AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED STATES. A COMMISSION TO VISIT EUROPE. Great interest is felt in the announcement reported in a recent telegram that a large American country life Commission will next summer visit Europe and Ireland. The terms of reference under which the Commission will work are as follows : — To inquire into the business organisations of agri- culture in Europe. To examine the methods employed by progressive agricultural communities in production and marketing, and in the financing of both operations, noting — {a) the parts played respectively in the promo- tion of agriculture by Governments and by voluntary organisations of the agricultural classes ; {b) the applica- tion of the co-operative system to agricultural produc- tion, distribution, and finance ; (c) the effect of co-opera- tive action upon social conditions in rural communities ; [d) the relation of the cost of living to the organisation of the food-producing classes. After showing the change in public opinion of which this Commission is the outcome, the article continues ; 131 1 * 132 APPENDIX From the broad national point of view the need for rural reform is perhaps even more urgent than the need for all that commonly goes by the name of social and industrial reform. It is, at any rate, the reform in which, for obvious reasons, the outside world, and especially the English-speaking races, is most closely interested. The total increase in population was during the last decade 21 per cent. ; but while the urban popu- lation grew by 34-8 per cent., the rural community grew by only 11-2 per cent. The showing of the countryside would be even worse were it not for the Far West, where the era of colonisation has not yet closed. In Iowa, Missouri, and some of the States of the Middle West, the agricultural stronghold of the countrj', the rural population has actually dwindled. In New England and the middle Atlantic States there has been practically no growth of rural communities to compensate for an urban industrial growth that has been mainly due to an influx of socially undesirable aliens. Had the average of agricultural productivity increased these statistics would lose some of their point ; but it has not increased. In 1899, 1900, and 1901 the average yield of an acre of corn was 25-3, 28-1, and 25-3 bushels ; in 1909, 1910 and 191 1 the figures were 25-9, 277, and 23'9, in spite of exceptionally good seasons. That the production of corn has not fallen is due to the fact that there has been a 20 per cent, increase in the acreage devoted to it. In regard to the more important wlieat crop the stagnation has been absolute. Productivity has not increased, averaging for the decade 14 bushels per acre, as com- pared with 29 bushels for Germany, 20-3 for France, and 33-0 for England. The area of cultivation remain.s stable, varying fi-om year to year between 43 and 49 million acres. Diminished Supplies .\nd Exports. Much the same story is told by the live stock returns. In 1910 there were roughly 62,000,000 cattle, 58,000,000 APPENDIX 133 -swinc, and 52,000,000 sheep on the farms, whereas ten years earlier there had been 68,000,000 cattle, 62,500,000 swine, and 61,500,000 sheep. The direct result of all this is that the United States, while still but half inhabited according to old world standards, are in danger of having to go abroad for their food. They have, as the following official report shows, already forfeited their claim to be one of the great granaries and food stores of the world : — " The rapid disappearance of meats and breadstuffs from exports of the United States is sliarply illustrated by the ligures of the calendar of 1912. They show, for example, an exportation of but 33,000 cattle in the calen- dar year 1912, against 164,000 in 1911, 277,000 in 1908, 494,000 in 1906, and 599,000 in 1904. "The value of the cattle exports of 1912 was Imt $3,000,000 (/6oo,ooo), speaking in round terms, against $14,000,000 (^2,800,000) in 191 1, and $24,000,000 in 1908, $38,000,000 in 1906, and $41,000,000 in 1904, the 1912 exports being thus about 8 per cent, of tlic value of those exported in 1904, eight years earlier. The dimiiTution in the cattle supply of the United States is also apparent in the fact that the importations of cattle in the year just ended amounted to over 300,000 in number, and their value to over $5,000,000, against but 16,000 in 1904, valued at $310,000. The figures of the Department of Agriculture showing the number of cattle on fanns on January i of each year place the num- ber on January i, 1912, at 58,000,000, against 72,500,000 in 1907. " The exports of meat show a marked falling off, espe- cially those of fresh beef, of which the exports of the year were but a 9,000,000 lb., against 29,000,000 in 191 1, 156,000,000 in 1908. 270,000,000 in 1906, and 354,000,000 in 1901, the fresh beef exports of 1912 being less than 3 per cent, of those of 1901. In other meats there is a marked decline, though less proportionately than tliat in fresh beef. The total value of meat ai^d dairy pro- 134 APPENDIX ducts exported in the year approxinaated $145,000,000 (;^29,ooo,ooo) against $181,000,000 (^36, 200,000) in 1908 and $209,000,000 (/4 1, 800,000) in 1906. " Breadstuffs exported in 1912, while showing a larger total than in 1911, are far below those of earlier years, the total for the calendar year 19 12 approximating > 165,000,000 (;/^33,ooo,ooo), against $215,000,000 (^43, 000,000) in IQ07 and $277,000,000 (^55,400,000) in 1901." In 1900, to put the comparison on the basis of the Census figures, breadstuffs and foodstuffs constituted 40 per cent, and io-8 per cent, of total exports, and in 1910 21-5 per cent, and 7-6 per cent. But enough has been said to establish the importance of the rural reform movement. If American civilisation is not to become onesided, if commercial and social development is to be orderly, the tendency towards excessive urbanism must be checked, and the produc- tivity of the soil must be enhanced. It is illogical that the United States should already be confronted with the problems of an overcrowded industrial State ; that their towns should be filled with an indigested, underpaid, and restless proletariat, while their farms are short of labour and the acreage of unimpro\'ed land runs into hundreds of thousands. Nor is the public any longer unaware of the dangers and inconveniences of the situa- tion. There has been a widespread tendency during the past year to shift the blame for high prices from the tariff to the farm, and contemporary industrial unrest has made of " excessive urbanism " a national bogey. Unfortunatel}', as will be shown in another article, the movement has yet to crystallise into a definite and accepted plan. II— THE FARMER'S POSITION The proofs given in the previous article of the stagnancy of American agriculture must, to many people, appear APPENDIX 135 imradoxical ; so much has been heard lately of the pros- perity of the American farmer. . . . What with the splendid educational work of the Department of Agriculture, of State Governments, and State and private Universities, there is no normal reason why the increase of acreage should not have been accompanied by in- creased productivity. . . . The best in the country- side turns to the towns for advancement, while the adventurous who wish to remain farmers sell their holdings, pack their chattels, and go to Canada. . . . Lack of Organisatiox. It is thus pretty clear that something is radically wrong with the rural economy of the country. Accord- ing to the promoters of the Commission that is going to Europe, and to foreign observers so expert as Sir Horace Piunkett, the trouble is that there is no business system at all. It is argued that the farmer has no traditions. . . . Naturally in a commimity where enterprise is niainly selfish the amenities of social life are lacking. There are few of the social traditions that characterise, or used to characterise, the yeomanry at home. The article concludes by showing the need of co-operation. APPENDIX II PRICES OF MEAT IN THE ARGENTINE. NEW YORK AND SOME EUROPEAN CITIES. Extracted from Various Sources. In the Argentine the price of meat, which was 2 -id. per lb. at the beginning of 1912 reached 3-4d. per lb. at the close of the same year." As a comparison the writer gives the prices of meat in other countries, mostly obtained from official publications A tjq^ical case is provided by Great Britain, which consumes the best quality Argentine cattle at a lower price than the non- exportable offals in the producing country. The Argentine municipalities oblige butchers to sell meat by weight and to exhibit a list of prices ; but as a matter of fact the meat is sold by the joint and not by weight and the consumer pays 30 to 40 per cent, more than the nominal price. The following is the municipal tariff at Buenos Ayres (in pence per lb.) : Surloin . . . . . . 7-7 Chop . . . . z-g Chuck Steak . . . . 3'8 Brisket . . . . 2-4 Round . . . . . . 3*8 Shoulder . . . . 2-4 Bones . . 1-4 PRICE OF MEAT IN NEW YORK. In igi2 the prices of meat were the highest ever known in the United States In September beef was at 30'3d. the pound, and it was predicted that before the end of the year it would reach 3i7d. Cattle are sold at i5d. to I7d. per lb. of live-weight. ' Now 5i 1. per lb., April, I'ji 5; 136 APPENDIX 137 PRICE OF MEAT IN FRANCE. The following tables show the prices at some of the important inarkets in France : — Prices of Meat on tiik Market of La ViLLELITE, Paris. Average price in Bullocks. Sheep. ist Quality. ist Quality. Pence Pence per lb. per lb. June, 1912 y8 lo-o Year 191 i 8-5 1 1 -3 1910 7-6 9-5 „ 1907 7-1 lO-I 1908 7-0 lo-o MEAN RETAIL PRICES IN PARIS, Bullocks and Cows. Chuck Steak . . i /- to i ,'3 per lb. Rib Loin Round Brisket 191; gd. to 1 /i|d. per lb. i/Ud. to i/6d. T/4d. lo.W. Sheep. per lb. Calves, per lb. Breast .. 6d. to yd. Breast .. io|d. to i /- Shoulder .. gd. to io.\d. Loin .. ii^d. to i /oj Leg , . 1 1 ^d . to T /o .^d . PRICES OF LIVE STOCK AT BAYONNE. Butcher's bullocks Draught Oxen Cx)ws Milk-fed Calves , Sheep Pigs 3 id. per lb. live weight. ^24 to ;^32 the pair. ;^i8 to /26 „ 5 Jd. per lb. live-weight. Vhd 6id. 138 APPENDIX PRICE OF MEAT IN SWEDEN. Bullocks and Cows . . . . 3d. to 4jd. per lb. Sheep for Slaughter . Suet 4id.t0 5ld. 3icl. PRICE OF MEAT IN BELGIUM. Year. 1880 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1911 Bullocks and Cows : Pence per lb. 6-9 67 675 67 7-25 78 87 Pig ,, ,, ., 7-8 6-25 4-4 4-8 6-1 7T 7-4 AVERAGE PRICES IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1912. Natives Bullocks Bullocks from U.S.A. Dutch Bullocks French Bullocks Calves Pigs Live cattle. Pence per lb. 5-4 4-8 5'4 5-2 6-3 6-1 Meat wholesale. Pence per lb. 4-3 3-9 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 7'4 6-5 7-6 7-4 87 7-4 975 8-2 9-5 9-5 1 30 9'5 PRICE OF MEAT IN SPAIN. The exportation of live beasts from the Argentine to Malaga and Barcelona has given good results. At Bar- celona the bullocks sold at 6Jd. to 6|d. per lb. of meat and the sheep at 6|d. SALE PRICES OF MEAT IN SPAIN. Pence per lb. Bullocks. Calves. Sheep. Grass Lambs. Milk Lambs, Sheep. ligf. 6-4 /7-5 875 6-9 /7-6 6-5 875 6-5 5-6 , 7-8 RETAIL PRICES OF MEAT. Bullocks. ist qualit}- : under cut ist quality ; without bones per lb. I 6d. Hid. APPENDIX 139 PRICE OF ARGENTINE MEAT IN AUSTRIA. Pence per lb. Price of frozen meat ia the Argentine Shipping from Buenos Ayres to London Shipping from London to Trieste Austria Customs Duty Carriage from Trieste to Vienna Expenses of Unloading, etc. . . Cost of I lb. of frozen meat delivered in Vienna 2-3 036 0-23 1-4 014 005 4'5 PRICE OF MEAT IN ITALY. Bullocks or Cows Rome Genoa Bologna Florence X'enice Retail Prices. Fore Quarter, with bones. Pence per lb. 7-8/8-2 7-8 7-8 6-5 'T^- 8-2 Hind Quarter, with bones. Pence per lb. 87 '9-8 7'8 lo-o 9-8 TOO PRICE OF ARGENTINE CATTLE IN SWTZERLAND. Cost of I.mportixg k Bullock to Berne or L.\usaxne. / s. d. Shipping from Buenos Ajtcs to Genoa Feeding . . Expenses of Unloading . . Carriage from Genoa to Lausanne or Berne Customs Duties . . Various Expenses Total The above figures refer to beasts which gave 715 lbs. of meat on slaughtering ; this was sold at nearly 8.Jd. 5 7 0 2 0 0 0 5 6 I T 6 I 3 6 0 ~ 0 iio 10 6 140 APPENDIX per lb., i.e., £25 2S. ; deducting the expenses, there remains £ij^ iis. 6d. for the price of the beast at Buenos Ayres. IMPORTATION OF CATTLE AND MEAT FROM THE ARGENTINE TO ITALY. 1. Italy holds the first place among European coun- tries as an importer of Argentine cattle, and is second only to Belgium as an importer of sheep. 2. In 191 1 the importation from the Argentine to the port of Genoa was 33,846 steers, 12,428 wethers and 4,750 tons of frozen meat. The mortality on board in the ealy part of the year -was 6 to 10 per cent., but later it fell to 2 per cent., owing to improvement in the conditions. PRICES OF GREEN HIDES. Pence per lb. Bullock Hide . . 6-3 Calfskin .. 7-4 Sheepskin .. 6-7 Lambskin . . .. 9-6 larrolds & Sons, Ltd.. i nnter;. The Empire I ilEp, Norwich. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LIBRARY Los Angeles This book is DUE on the last date stamped below. Form L9-2.3m-9,'47(A5618)444 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT LOS ANGELES LTRRARY AA 000 118 659 2 HD 1411 H58f