Historic, archived document Do not assume content reflects current scientific Knowledge, policies, or practices. U.S. Department of Agriculture @ Foreign Abbibullitral Service @® Washington, D.C. foreign Heke agriculture circular eee Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board e USDA FCB = 1-81 March 198] WORLD COCOA BEAN PRODUCTION TO EXCEED RECORD 1979/80 HARVEST SUMMARY World cocoa bean production for the 1980/81 October-September season is expected to be above the record 1979/80 outturn of 1.63 million metric tons. Based on past performance, the chances are two out of three that this. second USDA estimate of 1980/81 world cocoa production will not vary more than 3.5 percent from the actual final outturn. African production is forecast to fall nearly 4 percent to 979,300 tons as a result of less favorable growing conditions. However, South American output is expected to rise by almost 10 percent to 481,800 tons, reflecting a record Brazilian harvest. Production in Asia and Oceania will likely reach a record 84,500 tons, as new plantings come into bear- ing in Malaysia. Output in North America is placed at 91,800 tons, Slightly above year-earlier levels. Production data for the Ivory Coast and Ghana are being affected by increased movement of cocoa from Ghana into the Ivory Coast because of currency differentials and major trans- portation difficulties in Ghana. Thus, crop estimates for these two countries have been adjusted to reflect anticipated crop purchases. World cocoa bean grindings for 1981 are expected to increase to around 1.52 million tons from the 1980 level of 1.48 million tons. But they will still remain well below anticipated world production levels, indicating a buildup in world stocks for the fourth consecutive year. Consumption of cocoa continues to be adversely affected by high costs for Sugar and other ingredients, inflation, the economic slowdown in major importing countries, and the use of substitutes and extenders. Because of the bearish supply-demand situation, world cocoa prices have been steadily declining from their record high levels of 1977. New York cocoa bean prices (the average of the nearest 3 active futures trad- ing months) averaged $1.72 per pound in 1977, $1.53 in 1978, $1.44 jin 1979, and fell sharply to $1.14 last year. January 1981 prices averaged 92 cents and declined further in February to 88 cents per pound. Cocoa prices during the next several months will probably stabilize near cur- rent levels, because the market has largely discounted the _ present Supply-demand position. However, prices have recently been eding upward in anticipation of a change in the Ivory Coast's position toward the In- ternational Cocoa Agreement (ICCA). A new ICCA was negotiated in Geneva in November 1980, but the world's largest producer, the Ivory Coast, and the largest consumer, the United States, elected not to join. Two minor producers, Togo and Gabon, also decided not to be a party to the new pact. Members of the new ICCA will likely meet in April to vote on whether to go ahead with an agreement without Ivory Coast participation, although there is an_ increasing likelyhood that the Ivory Coast will join. The ICCA objective is to try and stabilize cocoa bean prices between $1.10 and $1.50 per pound through a buffer stock scheme. A $230 million buffer stock fund was accumulated under earlier agreements and will be carried over to the new ICCA to finance operations. The value of U.S. imports of cocoa beans and products during 1980 was $920 million, down from 1979 imports of $1,203 million and the record 1978 level of $1,376 million. U.S. exports of these items in_ 1980 amounted to $43.8 million, down from $49.6 million in 1979. The volume levels of both imports and exports were also lower in 1980. MAJOR PRODUCERS Ivory Coast production this year is anticipated to be above the re- cord 1979/80 outturn of 373,000 tons. New plantings coming into produc- tion and the young trees increased productivity have largely offset the effects of less favorable growing conditions. Thus, with increased move- ment of cocoa from Ghana into the Ivory Coast, total crop purchases are expected to easily reach 385,000 tons. Ghana's crop purchases are estimated at only 265,000 tons, reflecting the increased movement of cocoa into the Ivory Coast, less favorable weather, and reduced harvesting in some areas as farmers react to trans- portation problems and low producer prices. Nigeria's 1980/81 crop expectations remain somewhat clouded. How- ever, the general feeling is that production will be below the 1979/80 outturn of 170,000 tons. Since the producer price ($1.10/1b) is higher than the world market level, the Government has been reluctant to make export sales. ® COCOA BEANS: PRODUCTION IN SPECIFIED COUNTRIES, 1975/76-1980/81 1/ (In thousands of metric tons) : : : $ : Forecast Region and country 1975/76 : 1976/77 : 1977/78 : 1978/79 : 1979/80 : 1980/81 North America: : COSTAMR TCA St. arevsis e/cyorsterenncieielereys eietons Us 9.4 9.0 9.0 5.0 8.0 Cubaryerce 5 GiSrate a iek ehetlete oLereveru le, Seurerleners 2.0 7260) 2.0 7ap0) 2.0 2.0 Dominican Republic........ Slovoiprerenes 29.0 31.0 30.0 34.0 29.0 32.0 Grenada nate sect eres oletcawle stares avs si event 2.9 2a] (an8} 2a3 2is3 2.0 GUiatemailian 2 vs creevcrevece Nevavel steisie etaveterens 2.0 eha(0) SE5 B55 3e5 35 Hal Bille pereverstone voters eleverolsiectrerelsnereveteyaters : 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 25 HOMAUGAS Se. wiercic lela cie alectateorcarernie diets 58) 4 ais} “3 33 a3 JaMAaTCae eck eyevon es Mreretelers Nereus aS 1.6 1.6 Wes: 1.8 185 Vey MEX Ti COncreheieiavsiniarsrevele evexonsretcreretersieferovens 838351 24.2 34.7 36.0 36.0 35.0 NiiG agaglicterarercrenercrererslsrcieketals Si00000008 6 Ae) 6 Oe) 4 4 PidliaMake 2ieisiets ecole s toreve o' oeheuave Sale ioverere:s ak) 35 Bb) tS) ok) Be) Ieinidadwand sWobiagOls - Ganadack d Sarciesiels cine us araleiets wiersiaiores 69.4 226.9 250.8 653.7 CanarylsillandS crs clorciatcicierecieteretels : 2.8 6.4 - - CITT C ccvatereeccercsove sioie tel cisrerstetevere a erate : 6.9 13.4 34 4.9 Collombilaereeace oe dieisicieleveloletereters are Zeal Sel 5.4 21.0 COSTA IRIGae cereus cere Sree overs AOS 4.8 Woe - - DENMAN aresiorsters icles ore cletorlersvors lorevere oe 9 4.5 2.9 10.6 DominicancRepubllii@esccsciee cee cen 2.5 Hol 6 Vea? BleSallivadormecscc Panalals cic.safovcrs sttvecereicioiwcleercee caus USS] Chea 17.0 64.5 EMIS C AS CCBA GOED CoD OOGHO OBO Cre - - lee 8.4 SauidhimAvabilla's-.cos sels cites cine oes : 23.0 48.9 29.1 97.1 SINGAPOME'< Sie so cisc ie cine cv cyorclate'e osreiels 11.0 16.6 en 18.5 SOUENGAL GE UCalscuirss 15.0 26.8 RuStral tase cc cctacen aoe ce oes 9.5 51.8 1325 41.1 BahamaS:\crccrartcletersve ccctele sacre EAA eacie (aeC4 4.6 (Ae) ea Balinaimcyerc cise cercle cto’ wiaveletorete scc00s 8 2.5 - - BanbadoSecrcisreciscciecisreme ens 4 les a5 1.4 Bermudadesyericroarerele RICCI ase 1.6 9.8 4.8 liZed/ Canaddscsocae REP E ROT aC ICs 1,588.9 ZeNOZeal 1,146.5 1,743.0 Chileans ele siolste clovsle srelciereicres - - Ua Zae Collombillaeve a ee CDOTS Qarereeie ccs - - 320 6.1 Costa RiGacaccecerc csinecieerecees lise 5.6 - - Domiimican Repub secs acrccclsciess USS 20.1 (20 2.0 EESa'lVadON se octcsicrerciee e crereteicicicee : a7 20.6 5. 8.9 Gina @rrtelctscrerciereis eiereleloveiete staverelofereks > ~ gal 2.8 RrenchPaciitaGelisiliandSsizecierercre cre : 3.0 10.7 Sal; 10.3 Germany, West...... Weleioterctstoletcietevets 19.8 54.4 - - Guatemalan Scenes cscs cee Saeco s 6.2 29.7 6.2 se] GUiyaNacrerates siete wreteretere sts Savarevacaveiciets 2.6 10.2 - - HH dilitalicrcistetsts estole cre cvevoigteleteteievers © clatene Cae 14.4 - = HONGUGAS s crcccincie cractc creer Gece oe bao 152.2 42.2 125.4 HONG KONG sieveicicrercicioictelcictoreseveieiere Ais Be aoe: 202.0 46.0 156.7 NEGUANG. Se clrcicc ceo af cicio ae ete oe ke aes 113.8 23.6 61.3 WN Ghitdisreccve sre ctovccere s cceveteretevckereststcrererens 54 Vall - - WiMna Msvcvers-cievevelovarele crore vevavcrevaye cree ecees 83.2 403.8 - - Hisesliandievacterce eye claves Sate skein ahaa 1.4 4.4 - - US ae eee taerca ie ros Saeataects - . Gal 11.0 JAMAICA sscccicle cases csiseeecactacrae 30.0 47.2 - - VAD AME cveietere eres siaicie ae slae eee sere 164.3 409.8 226.4 667.3 DOGGAM cic cu crsictercic ecele ec ovcarsieccis aisarers len 2.0 - - Kored. REPpUuDNIG TOR sence cuciciecro ers 142.2 440.6 195.8 313.4 Hebanomacctceccrcsetoce cocecies cea : als) 3.4 24 1.6 Leeward and Windward Islands....: ae 1.6 - - MalllaiySitidlavare ererstevecorevetclorere ens aietererciere : - - (Ae 5.9 Mailitidloracracvete cerca cnere ere a roteporne nies 4 16 - = MEX Om cote cocaine a ckere omrcccteretens 15.9 16.9 3.6 6.9 NetherlandSisc..ccsce sceccweseceees 15.4 39.8 18.0 34.2 Netherlands AntilleS....ccccceee: 8.5 28.1 ail 3.4 NillGavdGUdcrcterslarcletclercleleicte cietaissiereree= ae) 1.4 - - NiNGeNpilldteverersarerchels crolerelelolelatorereroterote cis - - 21.0 36.3 Pacific Islands Trust Terr......: 28 2.5 - - Panam alsicraverctereters'o 0 clevsversterene Dareereicless Sa 87.9 28.7 46.4 PINT PINES ccveveyere: sore crs scetetetetels-elevers 17.4 9.8 - - SAUGA- AKAD Aa rcseyorersvseretlevercroxcxerovereverd 4.] ESC 326 10.8 Siig dpOreiarcratercrorsretaletetavctote c cvalerere ate : 52.8 143.6 16.8 33a SUC a isysrevevereycvaiole crevereverevoreretclelevevelererers - - .6 et Swed emieyeverererreleierereteren: AO OOoOOS 28.8 33a - - SWihEZerpilian diverereicrereloreielerersiercieierelerovers 1.8 9.4 Uo 4.1 MaiWans sass seo cease steno ane: 32.9 142.4 (Heap se 64.5 MRawlandasasase snes Aaa: 63.8 280.7 74.5 186.4 Trinidad and Tobago.............: Woz 59.7 41.0 103.1 United Arab Emirates......cccece: - - a5 Woe UniritediKainigdOmsjeicjaie cleieleicrelsiciein'-felels - - «9 2.4 Venezueiliaiss Sccccececcecoceses wks - - 4.7 353 LEAVING C erstaveteteleretercievetetereteicle SOOOOUOUOE 4 UWsz - - 995 Sey iE MOTOS. ies ie cicisrsieterewre elo eeree : i 5 . (Continued) 21 SPECIFIED COCOA PRODUCTS: U.S. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY OF DEST INATION--CONTINUED Country of destination ; 1979 1980 : Metric 1,000 Metric 1,000 Cocoa, powder, sweetened: > cons dollars tons dollars (Schedule B. No. 156.4500) : BaltamaS cerccvetsic'c ctcvoteles ciete clover cselevels BarbadoSiteicicicie’eicts clciaicicictalctorcvetoteretets B@v Gti atatatatstatatotelslatolelatelalotetstelelalelatol= BETZ ciatcictetsalelelcl cic cletalalcieieletoictetoterers BenimUG dlstetcicicle clevolelslclevotelelercistclctersietels Canad ae tecicre cia sie ole cleiotetelatelevolevcrets GOMOMD Talc’-tae aictoleclstclclelclelereiaiotolctate'ers COS Ta) RiGaicc cialclolatcle clerclelaveretareretetetets Denmarki.vccicfe'crers dictesiovsleloete ecleinte clei Dominican Republic.....cesseeeee: EGY Divcieiclelelcleleiolcloletelclviateteleleleinicieteleters Erin Vieindc’.\c.crare's’e's'ole's'eiciotsc ctavetele sles Guatemailiaitcc cece stots tele ae sistelsieletels HadiClicccciovstonciorsiccers ole cvetelelevevece ateteretets POLE) LOU Ss Sa6paccooKgoodosccanode NCO aNd caticccict alesis clecclsiscieieceteias UGE UBC SaO ae GBmoBeornoc ocbbodods NGGUCT Rh AB AR ASSAM ASAE ES MOCO CGE WAP OM svejs catcvete store cle ste wieielee alates were GOVAN 5 Sesedscrgie's osc o cialelete wrajeletorc’ ers Korea, REPUDIIC Oficccrc cco cicisrerelere’s LGD ANON cic:s ato iereve < aiclevevel el ovake alaretevel et ois Leeward and Windward Islands....: 3 Lil bnognodougeoonaagoccdoncdouos Mle MEXiTCO\s in cicclels siete cicterelcie vlererclefele= eters 34. 8 9 — ° Ww (=) ips) —_ nO on w oO ~S ~ nn C ee ) — e e e Ors18) 18 e e e e e e.hUm° te romawete t Htete nuit wwe tt BWW! MW! tt MI Ft OMOnst § § MROWNwWOPt 1 Ww —T wun Poa— ry no— ee — a nN ive) e w Oo —_ e e Pm Pwo HONS BW e e ~ of e — e e e e ° e e e e e On ON MNAWONW— 1 DWwWtl —NWOHWON!IE NNMOON—WOMODMAWOM! tt 1 OMM oO On nnwWw e e e e ° e ° e e e e e WOM™YIWOW WHA HLM! MONI BAONW—Ht SPIN HPMOMM™~DWOO—WOOt Ff 1 OHDHWO fo)) —) — ~~ e Netherlands. cs. <.'ccs scons sccciee ss Netherlands Antilles.....ccccoce: NCEE TElocoaccannodeanroc4ca00e$ OMEN cocaddddonogcoosc a6G000008 Pacific Islands Trust Terr..... Metric 1,000 Metric 1,000 Confectioners' coatings and ; tons dollars tons dollars other products (except con- 8 fectionery): (Schedule B. No. 156.4700) AUS ral Wale cit scisiec crc deities Sees Sere oe? 6.5 95.7 1.9 Cons BarbadOS¢ ascites o:cie sie syecisre eteisitee af 53 9.1 3.6 6.8 Belize...... Bails CoevaieBheie pcvereleievelets ‘2 4 Wau - - BEGMUGAs.c/cp ecxe Weer cies eels 13:35 1555 hse 8.5 Irelands. 3. gece. <. Sigheishsl els sve wlste vers 49.0 60.5 65.3 80.6 ADAM s c's\rspeisvavers ove eco ate Shehs eic a eteleve oho 12.9 27.0 17.4 40.2 Leeward and Windward Islands....: 12.2 20.9 AG) 84 UTIDOV Bi aecsak ei: aie ciate che lovers icvctevere''e ocahs 553 9.6 - - Ma layS'Tid\s: ste:cteiete:c sie ete sioiete.o sie HAE - - Ae 3.6 MEX ACO Siste atsic: cccrete eiereie Sieiecelevederwi@re 5.4 25.4 8.8 Lal Netherlands cree 6c d:6 sche Se ccve cove seas sD 1.0 = - Netherlands Antilles....ssccees at - - ae 6) NOGWAY'< c ctercleteles« c10 aie eleicis cle S0008 - - 55 WAE2 Pacific Islands Trust Terr. siekercieee 6 eal - - PAM AM Ales wiser che. oveeie/siocdlolcttes orci oxels o¥S - - 103.6 162.7 Saudi Arabia sc-creieic sNoredelicts oleleversvees ve 1.6 151 281.9 Singapore....... steveieheiers Slevalsicrelcietas 19.5 33.9 30.5 42.2 SUYETIMAMeesere ore creie ccs cherere Sieieve Broce wiht 553 Wee 26.3 69.0 OWA « cicteroteree ste cic 6 ie ahstehe he 0.6 6 SE - - 10.5 13.0 MGT NANG! Reictelsie ores. sds! ctetole Slevececoraans - - LeEVA?/ 102.6 Trinidad and Tebscom eye ce 4.2 53 5c/ 8.6 United Arab sEminates..)c. 2.0... +60: 139 9.9 2.4 4.1 United Kingdom..... oeraloletelofel ais/eielchs BS) sy 24.5 24.9 VENEZUCTIA ct ccc ccc cre's a dielatens eo - 6.2 10.4 MOBoacocouse SibienaVoslteber ovetoleireavae Cocoa residues: (Schedule B No. 156.5200) : Australia..... Gils ais io abe /atapalel evers evict < 88.0 29.1 2.2 10.5 Canadas. .6. 5 scr ore velioiodeVers eres ste clehe mgoe 4 Oe 1,137.9 1,982.7 764.0 Denmark ciemie rs, cis levelsiege Setehalotelerorpvenes - - Sie 1.0 Germany, WeSithe ccc. ecleclsts 1s co's Aes - - 7.4 18.5 Hastit 1 a:cere: otters Lio a ctl ovate shsifofs:'sco:e.0.elecats - - 1.4 les JaDathscre1< ote ake afc; olclevelede eteheterore erst evoicts - - Sol Weg) Inediand... 2 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID e 7 oUt CN ee U.S. DEPARTMENT OF OFFICIAL BUSINESS AGRICULTURE US MAIL PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300 La AGR 101 If you no longer need this publication, check here FIRST CLASS and return this sheet and/or envelope in which it was mailed and your name will be dropped from mailing list. If your address should be changed ________ PRINT OR TYPE the new address, including ZIP CODE and return the whole sheet and/or envelope to: FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE, Room 5918 So. U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250