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AA fajgitivomenny ereagpee oo een reB ~ wear A OE annem TEST Southern Cooperative Series Bulletin 245 North Central Regional Research Publication 267 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Agriculture, Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin 763 Directors Participating State Agricultural Experiment Stations, North Central and Southern Regions G.A. Buchanan, Alabama L.O. Warren, Arkansas W.P. Flatt, Georgia R.G. Cragle, Illinois B.R. Baumgardt, Indiana L.R. Kolmer, lowa F.W. Smith, Kansas C.E. Barnhart, Kentucky D. Chambers, Louisiana S.H. Wittwer, Michigan R.J. Sauer, Minnesota R.R. Foil, Mississippi A.M. Lennon, Missouri J.R. Welsh, Montana R.G. Arnold, Nebraska H.R. Lund, North Dakota R.M. Kottman, Ohio C.B. Browning, Oklahoma R.A. Moore, South Dakota D.M. Gossett, Tennessee N.P. Clarke, Texas L.M. Walsh, Wisconsin The participating agricultural experiment stations of the North Central and Southern Regions provide equal opportunities in programs and employment. Grain Production and Consumption for Feed in the North Central and Southem States with Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 Sheryl S. Lazarus Agricultural Economist University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Lowell D. Hill Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Stanley R. Thompson Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics Michigan State University at East Lansing November, 1980 Southern Cooperative Series Bulletin 245 North Central Regional Research Publication 267 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Agriculture, Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin 763 Preface This bulletin is sponsored jointly by the North Central Regional Committee for Project NC-137, ‘‘Eval- uation of Alternative Rural Freight Transportation Storage and Distribution Systems,” and the Southern Regional Committee for Project S-115, “Alternative Structures for Increasing Efficiency in Inter- and Intra-Regional Grain Marketing Systems.” PROJECT PARTICIPANTS FROM THE REGIONAL COMMITTEES S-115 Technical Committee *R.F. Anderson, Georgia Agricultural Experiment Station E.D. Baldwin, Ohio Research and Development Center *W.L. Bateman, Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station N.C. Clark, Louisiana Agricultural Experiment Station *\V.J. Free, Tennessee Valley Authority L.C. Halvorson, Science and Education Administration, Cooperative Research, USDA *L.D. Hill, Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station M.R. Holmes, Georgia Agricultural Experiment Station T.Q. Hutchinson, Economics and Statistics Service, USDA B.F. Jones, Indiana Agricultural Experiment Station *M.N. Leath, Economics and Statistics Service, USDA W.R. Morrison, Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station T.D. Phillips, Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station M.R. Reed, Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station *C.B. Sappington, Tennessee Agricultural Experiment Station *J.W. Sharp, Ohio Research and Development Center *D.M. Shuffett, Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station *7.L. Stallings, Alabama Agricultural Experiment Station L.E. Stone, Tennessee Valley Authority *H.D. Traylor, Louisiana Agricultural Experiment Station *E.J. Wailes, Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station T.J. Whatley, Tennessee Agricultural Experiment Station, Administrative Advisor NC-137 Technical Committee *D.G. Anderson, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station D.E. Anderson, North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station, Administrative Advisor *C.P. Baumel, Iowa Agricultural Experiment Station *J.K. Binkley, Indiana Agricultural Experiment Station K.L. Casavant, Washington Agricultural Experiment Station *D.W. Cobia, North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station *R.P. Dahl, Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station *S.W. Fuller, Texas Agricultural Experiment Station L.C. Halvorson, Science and Education Administration, Cooperative Research, USDA *L.D. Hill, Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station *I_.A. Hoffman, Economics and Statistics Service, USDA M.A. Johnson, Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station *W.K. Koo, Montana Agricultural Experiment Station *C.E. Lamberton, South Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station *D.W. Larson, Ohio Research and Development Center *R. L. Oehrtman, Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station *R.K. Rudel, Missouri Agricultural Experiment Station L.D. Schnake, Economics and Statistics Service, USGMRC, USDA *1_.O. Sorenson, Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station *S.R. Thompson, Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station *R.H. Vilstrup, Wisconsin Agricultural I:xperiment Station D.1.. Watt, Economics and Statistics Service, USDA *Voting member and principal leader for cooperating agency or state. TR bb NG X ho 7 Op. PURPOSE METHODOLOGY RESULTS Changes in Grain Production Corn Soybeans Wheat Oats Barley Grain Sorghum Livestock Consumption Corn Wheat Oats Barley Grain Sorghum All Grains Grain Surpluses or Deficits Transportation Requirements CONCLUSIONS AnnPhPhRARARARWOWNNNNH HE Contents ABSTRACT: Projections of grain production for the states in the North Centra! and Southern Regions were made for 1984, 1989, and 1999; also, consumption projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000. The estimates of grain production and livestock consumption were used to calculate the marketable grain surpluses (or deficits) for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for the states in the two regions. Estimates of grain production in states outside the two regions are also included, as well as production and consumption figures for the mid-1970’s. This study shows that future grain production will require additional transportation services because of higher production, greater specialization, and larger export demands. A trend toward greater specialization in livestock production over the next two decades is also indicated, with some relative shifts among regions both in the production of grains and in the raising of livestock. KEY WORDS: corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, grain sorghum, grain production, livestock feed, grain trans- portation, grain marketing, grain projections. eee oe : et a Grain Production and Consumption for Feed in the North Central and Southem States with Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 Sheryl S. Lazarus, Lowell D. Hill, and Stanley R. Thompson Ce about the production and consumption of grain and soybeans are important in many types of agricultural analyses. Projections indicating the quantities that will be produced and consumed are needed as a basis for planning and coordinating vari- ous market activities. For example, plans to expand an elevator and to purchase new equipment depend on the manager’s and owner’s perceptions about the fu- ture demand for the services provided by that elevator. The government also needs information about the amount of grain that may be flowing through the transportation system. Policymakers need to estimate the future use of certain rail lines when deciding which ones should be considered for abandonment. The expected movement of grain by truck also needs to be reviewed when the government decides what roadways to improve. The transportation industry needs projections about future grain surpluses and deficits in reorganizing transportation systems and planning investments and disinvestments in facilities. Researchers frequently need estimates of the demands for transportation facilities by region as they investi- gate how to improve transportation systems. The purpose of this bulletin is to provide information about the current and projected demands for commer- cial grain transportation services in the North Central and Southern States. In order to project the market- able grain surpluses (or deficits) for 1985, 1990, and 2000, production was projected for 1984, 1989, and 1999, Grain consumption was also projected for 1985, 1990, and 2000. Also reported are grain production for 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978, the livestock consumption of grain for 1976 and 1977, and the surpluses (or defi- Purpose cits) for 1976 and 1977. Estimates of grain production for states outside the two regions are also included. The production estimates precede annual surplus data by a year because the feed-grain crops harvested in one year are consumed by livestock mostly during the following year. In terms of U.S. production in 1978, projections are made for the states that comprise 88 percent of the total for corn, 81 percent for wheat. and 93 percent for soybeans. Methodology Data collection and analysis were organized under two regional research committees — S-115 and NC-137 (see the Preface). The committee representative from each state was responsible for the projections for that state. Similar projection procedures and models were used by each state. Individual variations and interpre- tations were permitted when knowledge about the in- dustry indicated that the mechanical estimates could be improved by judgmental adjustments. To make the estimates from different states compa- rable, state and national production totals provided by the National Interregional Agricultural Projections (NIRAP) System were used as a basis for substate allocations for 1985, 1990, and 2000. The NIRAP model was developed by the Economic Research Service, USDA. The projection procedure employed by the majority of states was to calculate the annual share of state or national production for each substate region. Production projections for states outside those repre- sented on the two regional committees are the NIRAP estimates. The annual share for each year, 1960 through 1975, was used to calculate a trend line, following an equa- tion of the general form Y = ab‘. This trend line was used to project shares of national totals for 1985, 1990, and 2000. The percentage for each substate re- gion for each grain was multiplied by its respective state or national total provided by the baseline projec- tions from the NIRAP series of July 14, 1978. A linear trend was used to obtain projected production for the preceding year by time period. Deviations from the procedure are noted in the accompanying tables. Only state production projections are reported in this publication. Substate projections are available on request from the participating states. Estimates for grain consumption were obtained by multiplying the projected livestock numbers by the annual grain consumption per animal. Livestock figures were not tabulated for the state and substate regions because data from the individual states did not permit a consistent set of classifications for livestock. Each state projected livestock numbers according to its own statistical series. Most states based their state totals on NIRAP estimates for meat, milk, and egg production. Rations were then developed that repre- sented annual consumption by each class of livestock. The result was an estimate for the amount of each grain consumed by all livestock. Data on the rations and on livestock projections are available from the participating states. Subtracting the quantity of each grain consumed by livestock from the quantity produced provided an esti- mate of the surplus or deficit for each state. Since the surpluses enter commercial channels, these quantities create a demand for transportation and marketing services and facilities. The demand for marketing and transportation services may be underestimated, how- ever, because some of the grain consumed by livestock in the region where grain is produced also moves through commercial channels, although generally only for short distances. Projections of historical trends are based on the restrictive assumption that past relationships will con- tinue into the future. Such an assumption is an espe- cially risky one with livestock numbers and rations. Price relationships and cyclical production patterns may alter the consumption of any one grain signifi- cantly in relation to a linear trend line. The numbers given are projections, not predictions. They indicate overall trends, rather than providing specific estimates for each year. Using the baseline NIRAP estimates (July 14, 1978) created some projected values that are below current production as a result of the assumptions about domes- tic demand, export demand, supply, price relationships, technology, and weather used in the model. For ex- ample, the production of corn during 1978 in Michigan was 182 million bushels, 15 million above the NIRAP estimate for 1989. The NIRAP figures were used, though, to produce consistent estimates for all states. The production capacity of the United States probably exceeds the NIRAP projections for all grains, but ac- tual production in the future is likely to be controlled by relative profitability and by political decisions that will determine the domestic and the export demand as well as the supply. Results Changes in Grain Production Corn. Corn production is expected to increase by 2.659 billion bushels between the mid-1970’s (based on an average of the production for 1975 to 1978) and 1999. Table 1 shows the figures for corn production in 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 along with the projected production figures for 1984, 1989, and 1999. The four- year average for 1975 through 1978 is also included. The average is referred to as the “mid-1970’s average production.” Figure 1 shows the regions that were used for the projections of grain production. Figures 2 and 3 show how the concentration of corn production will change between 1978 and 1999. The six largest corn-producing states in the mid- 1970’s were Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Minne- sota, and Ohio. In those states, 70.7 percent of the U.S. corn crop was harvested. The projections for 1984 show those six states producing 71.2 percent of the crop, with the concentration of production decreasing slightly in subsequent periods. By 1989, projections are that the six-state region will produce 70.9 percent of the corn crop; by 1999, 70.6 percent of the crop. Corn produc- tion in the delta region is likely to decrease by 1999. In the projections, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, New Mexico, and Tennessee all show production decreases, too. The largest increases in corn production between the mid-1970’s and 1999 are projected for the Northern Plains. An increase of 156.7 million bushels (100.5 percent) in corn production is projected for Kansas; 696.7 million bushels (115.8 percent) for Nebraska; 170 million bushels (91.7 percent) for Missouri; and 173.6 million bushels (47.1 percent) for Ohio. The projections for Illinois show an increase in corn production between the mid-1970’s and 1999 of 269.4 million bushels (22.3 percent); Indiana, 91.6 million bushels (14.6 percent); and Iowa, 370.8 mil- lion bushels (30.8 percent). However, five Corn Belt states — Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio — are expected to decrease their relative share of total U.S. production from 56.4 to 51.7 percent during the same period, with the states in the Northern Plains increasing their relative share of corn production from 13.7 to 19.3 percent. Soybeans. Soybean production is expected to in- crease by 1.422 billion bushels between the mid-1970’s (based on an average of the production for 1975 to 1978) and 1999. The projections show all of the states in the North Central Region and the Southern Re- gion increasing their production of soybeans (Table 2). As Figures 4 and 5 reveal, the concentration of production is projected to decrease between 1978 and 1999. The four largest soybean-growing states (Illinois, Regions used for the projections of grain production. Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri) produced 49.4 percent of the crop in the mid-1970’s. Those states are expected to produce 47.4 percent of the crop by 1984, 47.2 per- cent by 1989, and 47.8 percent by 1999. Soybean production has increased rapidly through the United States in recent years, with the greatest growth in the Southern States. Alabama is projected to increase soybean production by 39.4 million bushels (116.4 percent) between the mid-1970’s and 1999; Georgia, by 80.3 million bushels (317.2 percent); Ken- tucky, by 68.1 million bushels (189.3 percent); and Louisiana, by 89.4 million bushels (146 percent). Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Caro- lina are also expected to have large increases in soy- bean production. Wheat. Wheat production is expected to increase by 864 million bushels between the mid-1970’s and 1999. Figures 6 and 7 show the changes expected in the con- centration of wheat production between 1978 and 1999. The four largest wheat-growing states (Kansas, Mon- tana, North Dakota, and Oklahoma) produced 44.8 percent of the crop in the mid-1970’s (Table 3). Those four states are expected to produce 45.7 percent of the crop in 1984, 45.5 percent in 1989, and 45.5 percent in 1999, In the projections, Kansas and North Dakota both show large increases in production — 204.9 million bushels (61.4 percent) and 105.5 million bushels (39.5 percent), respectively. The relative share of wheat production in the North- ern Plains is projected to increase from 37.2 percent in the mid-1970’s to 40.1 percent by 1999, The Moun- tain States are also expected to have a larger relative share, increasing from 15.3 to 15.6 percent of the total U.S. production during the same period. (Fig. 1) Wheat production in several states is expected to increase greatly between the mid-1970’s and 1999, In the projections, Minnesota’s production is shown as increasing by 73.9 million bushels (66.6 percent); Ne- braska’s, by 79.6 million bushels (84.4 percent); and Colorado’s, by 46.2 million bushels (82.6 percent). A decrease in wheat production of 10.4 million bushels (17.2 percent) is expected for Illinois and one of 8.6 million bushels (13.6 percent) for Idaho. Oats. Oat production is expected to increase by 13 million bushels between the mid-1970’s (average figure ) and 1999. Table 4 shows that the five major oat-grow- ing states (Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) produced an average of 64.3 percent of the crop from 1975 to 1978. By 1984, those states are expected to produce 62.4 percent of the crop. The relative share grown in those states shows a pro- jected decrease in 1989 and 1999 to 59.6 percent and 56.3 percent, respectively. Oat production in the Lake States also seems likely to decline. For Minnesota, the state that now produces more oats than any other, oat production is expected to drop by 81.4 million bushels (70.9 percent) between the mid-1970’s and 1999. This change accounts for much of the decreased concentration of oat production among the five major states. A slight decrease is ex- pected in North Dakota. For Wisconsin, a relatively large increase in oat production is projected by 1999 — 11.3 million bushels (16.9 percent). The states in the Northern Plains should increase their relative share of oat production, from 29.3 per- cent in the mid-1970’s to 33.9 percent in 1999. Several of the other regions that produce relatively small amounts of oats are also likely to show larger shares of the total. For example, oat production as a propor- tion of U.S. output is projected to increase from 6.2 to 7.7 percent in the Northeast, from 1.2 to 1.8 per- cent in the Southeast, and from 2.5 to 4.2 percent in the Mountain States over the same period. _Barley. Barley production is expected to increase by 175 million bushels between the mid-1970’s and 1999. The five largest barley-growing states in the mid- 1970’s (North Dakota, California, Minnesota, Montana, and Idaho) produced 69.9 percent of the crop (Table 5). In the projected data, the concentration of produc- tion decreases slightly. The five major states are ex- pected to produce 65.7 percent of the crop in 1984, 65.4 percent in 1989, and 65.1 percent in 1999. By 1999, an increase of 41.2 million bushels (78 percent) is ex- pected in Montana and one of 29.9 million bushels (55.4 percent) in California. Several sections of the United States show substan- tial increases in their projected share of U.S. barley production between the mid-1970’s and 1999: the Mountain States, moving from 32.3 to 36.8 percent; the Appalachian States, from 2.2 to 3.6 percent; and the Northeastern States, from 3 to 4.4 percent. Grain Sorghum. The production of grain sorghum is expected to increase by 595 million bushels between the mid-1970’s and 1999. Figures 8 and 9 present that pattern of change. The three major states for grain sorghum are Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska. They pro- duced an average of 79.7 percent of the U.S. crop from 1975 to 1978 (Table 6). Those same states are likely to remain the leaders. The projections show them pro- ducing 76.9 percent of the crop in 1984, 75.6 percent in 1989, and 75.7 percent in 1999. For the three states, the projected increases are: Texas, 301.5 million bushels (107.1 percent); Kansas, 102.2 million bushels (53.4 percent); and Nebraska, 16.4 million bushels (12.9 percent). Grain sorghum is an important crop in those relatively dry sections of the country, competing with corn for row-crop acreage when price relationships are favorable. The only decrease in the production of grain sor- ghum projected from the mid-1970’s to 1999 is for California. There, production is expected to decline by 2.9 million bushels (22.1 percent). Livestock Consumption Corn. Table 7 gives the figures on corn consumption by livestock for the states in the Southern and North Central Regions. The largest consumption of corn is now in Iowa where over 400 million bushels were fed to livestock in 1977. More than 200 million bushels were fed in Minnesota and Indiana, followed by Illi- nois, Georgia, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, and Missouri (between 100 and 200 million bushels each). Decreases in the quantity of corn fed to livestock are projected for Ohio and North Dakota. Although total consumption is expected to rise between 1977 and 2000, the greatest increases are predicted for Minnesota and Texas. Wheat. The use of wheat for livestock feed depends on price ratios and on the class of wheat. In most re- cent years, wheat has been priced above its feeding value in relation to corn. The projected feed use of wheat shown in Table 8, therefore, is of limited value for any one year. Except for Illinois, Kansas, and Minnesota, the annual consumption of wheat for feed in any state is not expected to be above 10 million bushels by the year 2000. Oats. The largest consumption of oats in 1977 was in Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota, where over 50 million bushels were fed to livestock (Table 9). How- ever, the projections show a decrease in the utilization of oats in Minnesota so that by 2000, Iowa and South Dakota are the only states likely to use more than 50 million bushels. Indiana, Nebraska, and Montana show projected increases in oat consumption. However, the consumption of oats generally is adjusted to match current production. Oats may be substituted for other feed grains to adjust consumption to production in a particular locale. Decreases in the use of oats for feed to livestock are expected in Minnesota and North Dakota. Barley. In Montana, more barley is fed to livestock than in any of the other states represented by the two regional committees (Table 10). In 1977, 25.8 million bushels of barley were fed in Montana. The projected increase is to 35.7 million bushels by 2000. In 1977, more than 5 million bushels of barley were fed in North Dakota and South Dakota. For Minnesota, Mon- tana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, the projections show more than 5 million bushels of bar- ley being fed to livestock in each of those states by 2000. Grain Sorghum. Growth in the feeding of grain sorghum is predicted primarily for the states now producing and feeding large volumes (Table 11). Kan- sas and Texas produce the most grain sorghum and are the largest users of it in livestock feed. The projec- tions show no change in this pattern over the next 20 years. In general, the Southern States are expected to change little in their use of grain sorghum. Because of the ease with which grain sorghum can be substituted for corn, the relative quantity of those two grains fed in Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas is difficult to estimate without knowing future prices. The estimates of total feed use probably are more accurate than those for individual grains. All Grains. Substitution among grains occurs fre- quently, depending on price relationships and avail- ability. Since these shifts are difficult to predict, all feed grains were combined into a total consumption figure for each state by converting bushels into tons (Table 12). The different grains were not combined according to nutritional value because such ratios vary according to the class of livestock. Overall, the projections for the consumption of feed grains reflect higher numbers of livestock and a greater concentration of production and feeding. In 1977, 48.2 percent of the feed grains consumed in the states listed in Table 12 were fed in Iowa, Indiana, Texas, Minne- sota, and Kansas. By the year 2000, those five states (the largest ones in terms of using grain for livestock feeding) are expected to account for 42.4 percent of the total grain being fed. Grain Surpluses or Deficits The surplus or deficit for each grain by state was calculated by subtracting consumption from production. In surplus states, most grain that is not fed to livestock enters the commercial marketing channels, thus requir- ing transportation. Grain must be shipped into deficit states in order to meet the demand for consumption by livestock there. Table 13 shows the surpluses or deficits of corn for selected Southern and North Central States for 1976 and 1977 and the projected surplus or deficit for 1985, 1990, and 2000. In general, the surplus or deficit in- creases as ‘the production of both corn and livestock becomes more specialized. In the projections, the areas of concentrated livestock production gradually move away from the major corn-producing sections of the nation. Texas is the exception, changing from a state with a surplus of corn in 1976 and 1977 (2.2 and 59.4 million bushels, respectively) to one with a deficit of 22 million bushels in the year 2000. Substitutions be- tween corn and grain sorghum would constitute the likely cause. The surpluses or deficits of wheat in 1976 and 1977 and the projected surpluses or deficits in 1985, 1990, and 2000 are shown in Table 14. According to the pre- dictions, the levels of surplus wheat will decrease in Illinois, Michigan, and Mississippi between 1977 and 2000. Those three states will also produce less wheat as other crops became relatively more important. In 1977, Georgia had a small wheat deficit; but by 2000, all of the states in the study are projected to have more wheat than would be required for feed. However, wheat is not a major feed grain. Table 15 presents the surpluses or deficits for oats in 1976 and 1977 and the projected surpluses or deficits in 1985, 1990, and 2000. Several states are expected to reduce their surplus of oats as production decreases. Large declines in surplus supplies are shown for Indi- ana and Ohio. South Dakota probably will have a large increase in its surplus, caused by higher production there. Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Ten- nessee, Mississippi, and Oklahoma are expected to continue to have deficits. Arkansas is expected to change from a state with a small surplus to one with a small deficit. All of these states contain relatively large livestock-producing areas and have climatic conditions that are not well suited to the production of oats. The surpluses or deficits of barley in 1976 and 1977 and the projected surpluses or deficits in 1985, 1990, and 2000 are shown in Table 16. The deficit for Ken- tucky is expected to become smaller as a result of projected increases in the production of barley there. Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota are expected to have greater surpluses of barley between 1977 and 2000 because of projected increases in production. Texas is likely to change from a state with a small surplus of barley to one with a deficit as the consump- tion of barley by livestock increases. The surpluses or deficits for grain sorghum are shown in Table 17. Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas are expected to have large surpluses. All of the states in the South, with the exception of Tennessee and Arkansas, show sorghum deficits. The projections show a large increase in the size of the surplus in Texas between 1977 and 2000, despite a continued growth in consumption of sorghum by livestock. The projected surplus or deficit of individual grains is based on the assumption that price relationships will remain constant. The actual surplus or deficit of any one grain will differ according to the supply of a given grain in relation to the supplies of substitutes and their relative prices. Transportation costs encourage the ad- justment of rations to utilize locally available grains. This is especially true of minor grains such as oats. The substitution of oats for other feed grains is re- lated to local production. Thus, availability and price as well as trends in feeding practices should all be used to temper the historical projections. Ti ransportation Requirements The volume of grain requiring transportation can- not be determined directly from the data on surpluses and deficits given in Tables 13 through 17. The surplus for one state provides for the deficit in another. In ad- dition, only the requirements for livestock feed have been considered in calculating the consumption for each state. The surplus or deficit for any one state and for a given grain do indicate the volume that must be moved from the production areas. For example, even though some of the corn in Illinois is moved to IIlinois processors rather than to a deficit state, one or more transport handlings are still required. The actual vol- ume moved, the mode of transport involved, and the destination or origin of the grain are covered in other publications. The surplus-deficit calculations given in the preceding sections of this publication were based on production, minus consumption by livestock. Inventory changes and in-state processing are not included in the projections. Historical trends are of limited value in projecting inventory, and detailed historical data are not available for the grain-processing industries. Data collected through personal interviews for the 1977 calendar year provided a basis for calculating a balance sheet that includes inventory changes and processing, even though there is an inadequate basis for making projections. The balance sheets for each grain by state have been calculated only for 1977 to provide baseline data. These figures are shown in Tables 18 through 21. An exportable surplus (or deficit) was calculated by adding the figures for stocks in all positions as of Jan- uary 1, 1977, to the production for 1977 in order to obtain a figure for total supply. Disappearance was calculated by summing livestock consumption (based on livestock numbers times rations), seed use, process- ing use, and the figures for stocks in all positions as of January 1, 1978. Subtracting disappearance from sup- ply gave a surplus (or deficit) figure by state for each grain. These numbers represent interstate movements of grain that require rail, truck, and barge capacity. No attempt was made to sum these across states or to pro- ject the values into the future. The unknown shifts in export and processing locations and volumes make any projection extremely difficult. Conclusions An increasing volume of grain will require transpor- tation facilities and services in the future as a result of higher production, greater specialization, and larger export demands. Technological advances have raised crop yields. Although increases in production may not continue at the rapid rate of the last several years, we should expect continued advances in technology. In- creased irrigation has also raised the productivity of some land; however, rising energy costs and declining water tables may soon place limits on the continued expansion of irrigation. Economies of scale are also increasing the production of the various crops. Farmers are able to make better use of technological advances as their farms grow larger. Farm size has risen rapidly since World War II and probably will continue to do so. Farms also are becoming more specialized. Econo- mies of scale come about not only from larger size, but also from increased specialization. The results of this study show a trend toward greater specialization in livestock production over the next two decades, with some relative shifts among regions in the production of both crops and livestock. Consumption of all feed grains by livestock indicates that Minnesota is expected to have a larger share of total livestock pro- duction by 2000, while the eastern Corn Belt States will show slight changes in total feed consumption. The projections indicate that fewer livestock will be pro- duced in the North Central States, with a relative increase in some Southern States. For all crops but soybeans, the concentration of grain production measured by the percentage of production accounted for by the largest producing states is expected to decline by the year 2000. Higher corn production in the Northern Plains will reduce the relative importance of the Corn Belt. The production of oats will also shift from the Corn Belt and Lake States to the North- east, the Northern Plains, and the Mountain States. Soybean production will increase rapidly in all areas, with particularly fast growth in the Southern States. The demand for transportation capacity is expected to increase in order to handle the movements of grain between states with surpluses and deficits. Shifts in the areas with the greatest concentrations of livestock and grain production will require adjustments in marketing facilities and in modes of transport. Elevators no longer located on rail lines will need additional truck services. Production shifts into areas without access to water transportation will require changes in the combinations of destinations and origins. Increased export volumes will strengthen the demand for barge transportation and for the movement of grain by unit trains to the ports. The projections for production and consumption pro- vided in this publication are rough guidelines of the changes expected and the adjustments required. As ad- ditional information on demand and production tech- nology becomes available, the estimates given here will need to be revised. Table 1.— Corn Production: 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 and Projections for 1984, 1989, and 1999 Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Wortheest bushels (000) Connecticut® Pek as sete ee wide ets neat Sek Delaware? 14,990 15,640 17,160 10,360 16,800 15,739 16,142 17,160 Maine® erate Sere ales eke Site hee ee sie Maryland> 52,248 50,600 57,960 43,200 57,230 60,707 69,128 83,326 Massachusetts® Aa se Shs dese Aa Sree gas ne New Hampshire® B0he sisi sis iets te ee oar Seas New Jersey> 7,719 6,723 8,858 6,650 8,645 6,809 7,439 8,381 New York? 46,846 45,235 43,548 51,200 47,400 42,205 48,846 60,739 Pennsylvania? 102,958 88,560 103,500 106,720 113,050 105,032 117,061 137,280 Rhode Island® eae Ewha Ae sete Hos Me a Re Vermont?® ayes Stee aes sets ae bates Se ee 224,760 206,758 231,025 218,130 243,125 230,492 258,616 306,886 Lake States Michigan? 168,423 152,792 141,450 197,200 182,250 1555222 167,071 203,832 Minnesota® 495,390 407,400 330,400 600,000 643,760 651,346 701,820 764,509 Wisconsin? 227,508 198,370 150,960 291,200 269,500 219,315 242,053 279,590 891,321 758,562 622,810 1,088,400 1,095,510 1,025,883 1,110,944 1,247,931 Corn Belt Illinois? 1,212,130 1,253,960 1,240,130 1,163,400 1,191,030 1,205,402 1,319,145 1,481,576 Indiana® 628,840 551,740 692,999 633,420 637,200 613,750 635,455 720,415 Towa? 1,205,075 1,091,700 1,173,900 1,092,200 1,462,500 1,274,040 1,386,891 1,575,898 Missouri® 184,188 170,100 173,850 201,400 191,400 274,100 300,536 353,140 Ohio? 368,423 321,080 393,460 380,100 379,050 434,829 468,000 542,000 3,598,656 3,388,580 3,674,339 3,470,520 3,861,180 3,802,121 4,110,027 4,673,029 Northern Plains Kansas? 155,970 137,760 171,840 161,280 153,000 204,772 243,545 312,659 Nebraska? 601,609 503,237 514,600 648,450 740,150 863,410 1,001,702 1,298,347 North Dakota? 13,017 7,140 7,640 17,301 19,987 11,299 12,366 14,153 South Dakota® 104,705 83,251 37,200 126,850 171,520 115,147 113,745 116,632 875,302 731,388 731,280 953,881 1,084,657 1,194,628 1,371,358 1,741,791 Appalachia Kentucky? 119,663 87,800 138,700 132,300 119,850 140,000 155,000 180,000 North Carolina» 116,818 106,530 150,400 88,740 121,600 126,424 138,185 157,314 Tennessee® 46,091 36,900 56,455 47,450 43,560 38,030 39,792 42,302 Virginia? 44,633 49,720 47,580 30,800 50,430 51,456 57,197 66,084 West Virginia> 4,839 5,525 5,368 3,996 4,466 075 5,544 6,305 332,044 286,475 398,503 303,286 339,906 360,985 395,718 452,005 Southeast Alabama® 29,769 33,000 48,000 10,875 27,200 26,400 28,125 33,750 Florida” 18,845 16,875 28,800 10,465 19,240 20,236 21,967 24,902 Georgia 84,080 103,400 133,920 24,000 75,000 107,923 119,307 138,318 South Carolina” 35,462 37,400 © 49,358 24,840 30,250 32,827 35,792 42,222 168,156 190,675 260,078 70,180 151,690 187,386 205,191 239,192 Delta Area Arkansas4 2,110 1,900 2,520 2,279 1,740 2,120 2,136 2,634 Louisiana? 2,946 2,250 3,380 3,380 YATRA 23572 2,126 1,423 Mississippi? 6,837 5,945 8,084 5,760 7,560 5,502 4,932 3,792 11,893 10,095 13,984 11,419 12,073 10,194 9,194 7,849 Southern Plains Oklahoma® 7,471 7,280 10,070 7,790 4,745 5,908 6,757 8,458 Texas? 149,750 113,300 180,000 161,700 144,000 148,653 166,347 197,519 157-221 120,580 190,070 169,490 148,745 154,561 173,105 205,977 (cont'd) Table 1, continued/Corn Production and Projections Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Mountain Region bushels (000) Arizona? 3,207 396 1,680 5,000 5,750 642 702 718 Colorado” 68,900 51,520 64,260 80,620 79,200 51,263 57,969 68,241 Idaho? 2,817 2,490 2,975 2,408 3,393 2,762 3,018 3,432 Montana? 666 730 825 748 360 899 1,052 1,277 Nevada® ere Nae ae Eee aoe as mae mate New Mexico? 8,850 7,500 10,080 10,260 7,560 4,561 5,685 8,141 Utah” 1,309 1,290 1,350 1,157 1,440 2,634 3,299 4,470 Wyoming” 2,205 1,600 1,914 2,550 2,754 7,402 8,479 10,371 87,954 65,526 83,084 102,743 100,457 70,163 80,204 96,650 Pacific Coast California 30,911 27,686 31,900 28,652 35,406 42,720 52,285 64,729 Oregon? 989 680 900 1,140 1,235 835 842 878 Washington” 5,931 3,536 4,708 7,616 7,865 5,203 5,825 6,943 37,831 31,902 37,508 37,408 44,506 48,758 58,952 72,550 U.S. Total 6,385,138 5,790,541 6,242,681 6,425,457 7,081,849 7,085,171 7,773,309 9,043,860 a Little or no corn July 14, 1978 and US issued July 14, 1978. Table 2. — Soybean Production: 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 and Projections for 1984, 1989, and 1999 roduction in the state, at present or expected. > State did not provide estimates. Estimates based on NIRAP series issued A production data, ¢ Estimates based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975, 4 Revised estimates based on NIRAP series Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Nocitheast bushels (000) Connecticut® sete Sisk Ae. Sate iets Sc TR Bare Delaware? 5,701 5,625 4,920 5,400 6,860 5,184 5,974 7,335 Maine* Sine sane ae Sine nishe Sie sists ace Maryland> 9,108 9,240 TY hs: 8,775 11,040 10,798 12,839 16,626 Massachusetts* care wists é3)0 Aes 1,734 1,456 1,450 2077; 1,953 2,348 3,116 4,798 Rhode Island* we Sie on cae fh Dor aod sees Vermont* peril lens sane see Per oes oe ae 21,263 19,270 18,305 20,937 26,539 21,304 25,630 33,832 Lake States ‘ Michigan? 17,061 15,861 11,583 21,600 19,200 19,105 18,779 19,121 Minnesota® 110,231 98,550 66,440 133,835 142,100 109,536 113,393 118,439 Wisconsin? 5,556 5,279 3,344 6,720 6,880 6,064 7,286 9,597 132,848 119,690 81,367 162,155 168,180 134,705 139,458 147,157 Corn Belt Illinois 296,243 295,920 249,480 336,300 303,270 318,705 355,088 447,703 Indiana? 129,461 121,605 111,520 144,300 140,420 153,428 180,285 228,276 Towa? 243,793 236,980 199,950 251,340 286,900 313,085 377,528 502,696 Missouri 125,456 113,985 84,000 148,800 155,040 177,646 212,441 270,967 Ohio? 110,270 102,300 95,040 119,900 123,750 175,000 200,000 225,000 905,223 870,790 739,990 1,000,730 1,009,380 1,137,864 1,325,342 1,674,642 (cont'd) Table 2, continued/Soybean Production and Projections Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Northern Plains bushels (000) Kansas® 22,358 22,140 12,975 28,215 26,100 30,820 32,576 36,066 Nebraska‘ 34,045 32,400 20,600 40,680 42,500 39,089 49,337 67,674 North Dakota? 3,251 2,906 1,838 3,500 4,758 3,777 3,987 4,443 South Dakota*® 9,620 8,550 8,425 9,608 11,895 11,022 12,946 17,323 69,274 65,996 43,838 82,003 85,253 84,708 98,846 125,506 Appalachia Kentucky? 35,980 31,800 28,900 40,920 42,300 47,000 65,700 104,100 North Carolina> 31,063 33,370 24,640 29,040 37,200 45,580 59,744 83,957 Tennessee 48,716 45,325 40,500 52,170 56,870 62,100 67,200 79,750 Virginia? 9,951 10,825 8,159 8,360 12,460 12,324 14,385 18,063 West Virginia® 125,710 121,320 102,199 130,490 148,830 167,004 207,029 285,870 Southeast Alabama*® 33,863 30,870 28,080 33,600 42,900 63,840, 68,856 73,280 Florida? 7,774 6,744 6,578 8,175 9,600 12,520 16,471 24,848 Georgia? 25,309 29,580 20,455 21,800 29,400 50,960 68,810 105,595 South Carolina 27,693 30,360 21,420 26,650 32,340 37,169 49,200 66,964 94,639 97,554 76,533 90,225 114,240 164,489 203,337 270,687 Delta Area Arkansas* 104,545 117,500 82,080 105,800 112,800 123,243 145,259 183,376 Louisiana® 61,245 48,000 63,000 62,980 71,000 91,911 111,496 150,666 Mississippi* 75,469 70,200 71,500 78,475 81,700 87,845 100,405 125,525 241,259 235,700 216,580 247,255 265,500 302,999 357,160 459,567 Southern Plains Oklahoma? D922 5,214 5,500 7,820 2,359 6,671 8,036 10,605 Texas? 14,399 9,065 9,022 20,140 19,370 13,002 16,947 25,016 20,371 14,279 14,522 27,960 24,725 19,673 24,983 35,621 Mountain Region* Pacific Coast* U.S. Total 1,610,587 1,544,599 1,293,334 1,761,755 1,842,647 = 2,032,746 + =. 2,381,785 3,032,882 * Little or no soybean production in the state, at present or expected. » State did not provide estimates, Estimates based on NIRAP series issued aay hat hc USDA production data. ¢ Estimates based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975, 4 Revised estimates based on NIRAP series is- sued July 14, 1978. WE 200,000,000+ bu. 150,000,000-200,000,000 bu. @ 100,000,000-150,000,000 bu. BB 50,000,000-100,000,000 bu. CO) less than 50,000,000 bu. 1978/corn production in the United States. (Fig. 2) 1999/U.S. corn production. (Fig. 3) 125,000,000+ bu. 75,000,000-125,000,000 bu. 50,000,000-75,000,000 bu. 25,000,000-50,000,000 bu less than 25,000,000 bu. OBBBa8 1978/soybean production in the United States. (Fig. 4) 1999/U.S. soybean production. (Fig. 5) 10 Mi 100,000,000+ bu 75,000,000-100,000 000 bu. B® 50 000,000-75 000,000 bu. @® 25 000,000-50 000,000 bu. © less than 25,000,000 bu. 1978/wheat production in the United States. (Fig. 6) 1999/U.S. wheat production. (Fig. 7) 1978/grain sorghum production in the United States. (Fig. 8) 1999/U.S. production of grain sorghum. (Fig. 9) 11 Table 3. — Wheat Production: 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 and Projections for 1984, 1989, and 1999 Average, : 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Northeast bushels (000) Connecticut* Ae aI els aa Aur son aa EGA Delaware? 1,298 1,734 1,400 1,050 1,008 1,248 1,424 1,778 Maine® mee sie fot vs oa Sa i fs sia Maryland” 4,716 5,304 5,244 4,320 3,996 4,188 5,960 L052 Massachusetts* oe ae nee ahs wee ars 3 siete eek New Hampshire® ane er dane ris ests fiers Sits Mes New Jersey” 1,686 1,944 2,310 1,302 1,188 1,789 1,817 1,926 New York? 6,075 8,200 6,650 6,825 2,625 6,387 6,905 7,463 Pennsylvania? 9,035 10,144 9,000 8,910 8,085 9,644 10,224 11,082 Rhode Island® ot can ae Ses sere sire Bree Mave Vermont® se ee aR: ie dave re ee fore 22,810 27,326 24,604 22,407 16,902 23,256 26,330 29,601 Lake States . Michigan® 31,845 38,760 37,620 33,000 18,000 33,363 33,018 33,584 Minnesota? 110,992 88,368 130,482 131,894 93,225 125,165 143,805 184,886 Wisconsin? 2,673 2,820 3,238 3,075 1,560 2,559 2,931 3,585 145,511 129,948 171,340 167,969 112,785 161,087 179,754 222,055 Corn Belt Illinois® 60,618 67,470 72.050: 67,510 35,340 48,539 47,444 50,213 Indiana‘ 50,797 61,600 54,002 55,800 31,785 55,261 56,860 59,032 Iowa? 3,422 3,400 4,550 4,033 1,705 2,686 3,077 3,763 Missouri® 50,948 48,510 58,080 68,640 28,560 53,909 56,078 59,389 Ohio4 63,649 74,340 64,000 72,380 43,875 69,700 71,500 74,700 229,434 255,320 252,782 268,363 141,265 230,095 234,959 247,097 Northern Plains Kansas? 333,738 345,100 339,000 344,850 306,000 379,320 435,980 538,620 Nebraska? 94,273 98,240 94,000 103,250 81,600 119,172 138,809 173,884 North Dakota‘ 267,049 264,392 287,830 229,907 286,065 292,002 313,344 372,592 South Dakota® 60,195 63,294 39,520 71,964 66,000 68,347 69,968 74,049 755,255 771,026 760,350 749,971 739,665 858,841 958,101 1,159,145 Appalachia Kentucky? 9,783 11,968 10,200 10,138 6,825 11,200 13,200 16,800 North Carolina? 6,856 8,525 6,960 6,000 5,940 9,602 10,926 13,245 Tennessee 9,946 9,610 12,395 10,080 7,700 12,309 14,802 19,585 Virginia? 7,128 9,052 7,680 6,355 5,425 10,617 12,477 15,882 West Virginia> 328 352 352 310 297 360 339 267 34,041 39,507 37,587 32,883 26,187 44,088 51,744 65,779 Southeast Alabama? 2,256 2,520 2,295 2,520 1,690 2,012 Z132 2,270 Florida? 389 325 420 377 432 825 896 1,007 Georgia® 3,588 3,645 3,565 3,300 3,840 4,737 5,669 7,496 South Carolina? 3,022 3,510 3,250 255 2,574 4,611 5,451 6,993 9,255 10,000 9,530 8,952 8,536 12,185 14,148 17,766 Delta Area Arkansas* 19,903 18,200 24,570 25,740 11,100 18,442 21,901 28,320 Louisiana 619 256 759 850 612 782 748 694 Mississippi* 3,811 4,440 5,220 3,570 2,015 3,847 4,014 4,032 24,333 22,896 30,549 30,160 13727 23,071 26,663 33,046 Southern Plains Oklahoma® 158,325 160,800 151,200 175,500 145,800 172,672 186,463 213,001 Texas? 101,500 131,100 103,400 117,500 54,000 101,458 122,901 157,761 259,825 291,900 254,600 293,000 199,800 274,130 309,364 370,762 (cont'd) 12 Table 3, continued/Wheat Production and Projections Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Mountain Region bushels (000) Arizona> 17,566 18,200 32,325 10,080 9,660 31:332 44,770 77,453 Colorado 55,989 56,263 53,200 57,225 57,268 68,946 80,747 102,223 Idaho? 63,458 60,050 68,320 50,730 74,730 47,586 49,664 54,816 Montana? 150,048 155,925 167,295 130,920 146,050 140,325 159,046 191,262 Nevada? 1,649 1,820 1,677 1,560 1,540 973 1,090 1,303 New Mexico? 8,256 11,400 6,825 9,137 5,662 6,535 7,436 8,978 Utah? 6,000 7,164 6,519 4,716 5,599 6,006 6,154 6,163 Wyoming? 7,365 8,277 7,955 5,620 7,606 7,402 8,479 10,371 310,331 319,099 344,116 269,988 308,115 309,105 357,386 452,569 Pacific Coast California? 52,622 61,241 59,720 43,700 45,825 49,701 65,411 85,927 Oregon? 54,472 58,040 60,301 47,620 51,925 47,586 53,298 62,223 Washington> 131,804 147,880 144,050 101,305 133,980 120,550 130,823 148,150 238,898 267,161 264,071 192,625 231,730 217,837 249,532 296,300 U.S. Total 2,029,693 2,134,183 2,149,529 2,036,318 1,798,712 2,153,694 2,407,981 2,894,120 * Little or no_ wheat production in the state, at present or expected. > State did not July 14, 1978. ¢ Estimates on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. 4 Revised estimates Table 4. — Oat Production: 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 and Projections for 1984, 1989, and 1999 rovide estimates, Estimates based on NIRAP series issued ed on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Northeast bushels (000) Connecticut® ne RAE Saya Soin hoe rete sks save Delaware? a (*) (*) (2) (4) 928 97 101 Maine? 1,707 1,550 1,400 1,500 2,376 1,736 1,861 2,136 Maryland> 1,204 1,176 1,210 1,188 1,242 1,595 1,742 2,036 Massachusetts® ate noe eae ES ee sae Stee oe New Hampshire* aes Par aoe ae sa asi ee a New Jersey? 368 294 408 387 384 281 290 310 New York? 17,699 20,400 17,325 15,370 17,700 19,787 20,980 23,671 Pennsylvania> 18,638 19,875 18,105 18,550 18,020 18,431 19,521 21,979 Rhode Island* Hie s/s Sak ote aint ere ade ae Vermont? (*) ie) @) Cy (eS) 91 89 &4 39,616 43,295 38,448 36,995 39,722 42,849 44,580 50,317 Lake States : Michigan® 19,894 20,720 19,635 18,700 20,520 19,682 19,715 20,069 Minnesota‘ 114,855 104,000 94,760 161,840 98,820 88,389 70,081 33,465 Wisconsin? 67,015 74,250 55,040 76,050 62,720 87,864 70,985 78,334 201,764 198,970 169,435 256,590 182,060 195,935 160,781 131,868 Corn Belt Illinois* 21,302 26,647 22,420 20,740 15,400 22,423 22,316 22,454 Indiana® 9,859 12,375 10,200 7,950 8,910 11,002 10,683 10,471 Iowa? 77,548 78,540 82,600 82,350 66,700 78,467 82,519 91,780 Missouri® 4,480 3,898 5,440 7,250 1,330 3,455 2,789 1,694 Ohio* 27,045 30,500 28,500 24,780 24,400 28,000 26,900 26,100 140,234 151,960 149,160 143,070 116,740 143,347 145,207 152,499 (cont'd) 13 Table 4, continued/Oat Production and Projections Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Northern Plains bushels (000) Kansas? 6,723 4,360 8,400 9,450 4,680 6,660 7,079 8,128 Nebraska‘ 29,595 28,910 27,720 40,600 21,150 34,494 39,422 49,310 North Dakota® 56,723 56,170 44,840 60,000 65,880 59,889 Soisl7 49,580 South Dakota® 93,946 98,120 42,600 132,300 102,765 94,016 100,820 113,394 186,987 187,560 123,560 242,350 194,475 195,059 202,838 220,412 Appalachia Kentucky 327 400 300 315 294 300 200 200 North Carolina? 4,054 4,080 3,760 3,150 53225 4,490 4,726 5,260 Tennessee 1,210 1,200 1,440 1,075 125 1,286 1,325 1,432 Virginia 1,432 1,125 1,488 1,496 1,620 2,003 2,129 2,404 West Virginia? 559 611 630 492 504 661 707 804 7,582 7,416 7,618 6,528 8,768 8,740 9,087 10,100 Southeast Alabama‘ 1,049 1,044 925 1,025 1,200 251 1,275 1,320 Florida> 544° 492 600 540 (8) 815 968 1,340 Georgia’ 3,002 2,632 3,180 2,750 3,445 3,829 4,145 4,850 South Carolina? 3,074 2,940 2,925 2,530 3,900 3,275 3,468 3,903 7,669 7,108 7,630 6,845 8,545 9,170 9,856 11,413 Delta Area Arkansas® 3,536 2,340 4,290 3,500 4,015 5,361 5,954 7,229 Louisiana 326¢ 222 378 378 (*) 260 i161 4 Mississippi4 874° 1,080 956 585 @ 946 996 998 4,736 3,642 5,624 4,463 4,015 6,567 7 AAI 8,231 Southern Plains Oklahoma® 4,339 3,230 4,725 5,980 3,420 3,456 3,282 2,810 Texas? 17,923 19,500 14,430 24,000 13,760 15,542 16,923 19,881 22,262 22,730 19,155 29,980 17,180 18,998 20,205 22,691 Mountain Region Arizona® Losey ate oe eats os ee ake efate Colorado? 1,878 1,974 2;350 1,426 1,760 2,087 2173 2,387 Idaho? 2,662 2,538 2,408 2,565 3,136 3,303 3,483 3,887 Montana® 8,624 10,750 7,536 5,600 10,608 12,627 14,096 17,222 Nevada? 176° 165 144 220 (*) 134 141 167 New Mexico* Bees aiaes Sie wee ered Pat ae et Utah> 635 728 684 550 576 745 781 863 Wyoming? 2,236 2,050 2,438 1,710 2,744 2,453 2,589 2,889 16,211 18,205 15,560 12,071 18,824 21,349 23,263 27,415 Pacific Coast California? 5,016 4,770 4,900 5,304 5,088 5,699 6,214 7,329 Oregon? 4,237 3,696 3,850 5,200 4,200 4,511 4,763 5,344 Washington? 1,804 1,890 1,960 1,505 1,860 2,979 Stil 3,434 11,057 10,356 10,710 12,009 11,148 13,189 14,088 16,107 U.S. Total 638,118 651,242 546,900 750,901 601,477 655,203 637,016 651,053 * Little or no oat production in the state, at present or expected. > State did not provide estimates. Estimates based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978, © Estimates based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. 4 Revised estimates based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. ¢ Three-year average. 14 Table 5.— Barley Production: 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 and Projections for 1984, 1989, and 1999 Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Nociheast bushels (000) Connecticut® im ete ines wie Ake aa Hy Delaware? 1,123 1,269 1,200 968 1,056 1,367 1,564 2,003 Maine® bee west. ees aaah cis aie oe Maryland” 3,985 4,275 4,410 3,430 3,825 6,022 6,765 8,420 Massachusetts* ae Mod tee aise oye ste a New Hampshire* or aide Att Aare anid oe , New Jersey” 847 672 980 816 920 1,247 1377) 1,672 New York? 427 450 396 440 420 639 691 813 Pennsylvania? 6,000 6,500 5379) 6,250 5,875 9,763 10,787 13,112 Rhode Island* eit aoe Sees Ror cites Pee sare Vermont* ee Date ton or ae Ae 12,382 13,166 12,361 11,904 12,096 19,038 21,184 26,020 Lake States Michigan? 889 799 874 988 893 1,063 L125 1,276 Minnesota? 43,226 30,590 35,260 55,080 51,975 45,548 48,504 52,443 Wisconsin? 1,419 1,505 1,280 1,566 1,323 1,706 1,876 2,260 45,534 32,894 37,414 57,634 54,191 48,317 51,505 55,979 Corn Belt Tllinois® 404 588 398 378 252 582 592 622 Indiana? 366° 400 378 320 (2) 459 472 516 Iowa? (*) (*) (*) () (8) 140 126 99 Missouri? 292° 324 256 296 (eS) 369 351 330 Ohio» 544 561 572 561 480 604 631 701 1,606 1,873 1,604 SSS 732 2,154 2172 2275 Northern Plains Kansas? 2,420 1,850 2,380 2,808 2,640 2,895 2,908 3,014 Nebraska? 1,341 1,188 1,140 1,935 1,102 1257 1,328 1,507 North Dakota® 93,123 79,800 81,320 98,670 112,700 85,737 89,862 101,062 South Dakota® 26,244 17,670 39,520 26,880 20,905 2l222 22,596 24,247 123,128 100,508 124,360 130,293 137,347 111,111 116,694 129,830 Appalachia Kentucky? 1,049 1,258 800 1,150 989 2,400 2,700 3,300 North Carolina? 2577 2,760 2,340 2,200 3,009 3,911 4,384 5,439 Tennessee 479 434 532 507 442 638 680 780 Virginia> 4,481 4,410 4,416 4,048 5,050 7,379 8,356 10,535 West Virginia 414 460 378 378 440 663 YAS 958 9,000 9,322 8,466 8,283 9,930 14,991 16,877 21,012 Southeast Alabama? 87t 92 81 (2) @) 69 7A 75 Florida* Rice aise enave Se ee aay aes Georgia? 240° 190 270 259 (G2) 454 482 561 South Carolina? 857 741 720 840 1,128 1,197 1,339 1,652 1,183 1,023 1,071 1,099 1,128 1,720 1,892 2,288 Delta Area* Southern Plains Oklahoma® 3,097 2,400 3,066 4,200 2,720 9,568 9,460 9,359 Texas? 2222 2,380 2,028 3,400 1,080 2,441 2,565 2,877 5,319 4,780 5,094 7,600 3,800 12,009 12,025 12,236 (cont'd) 15 Table 5, continued/Barley Production and Projections Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Mountain Region bushels (000) Arizona” 3,968 4,875 4,332 4,180 2,485 12,587 14,139 17,613 Colorado” 13,649 12,190 13,475 13,570 15,360 15,880 17,683 21,717 Idaho? 45,233 37,750 43,200 44,180 55,800 42,405 43,893 50,990 Montana® 52,834 50,700 52,065 52,195 56,375 69,451 77,038 94,060 Nevada? 991 663 864 18235 1,200 1,212 1,366 171i New Mexico? 1,400 1,624 1,224 1,326 1,425 1,282 1,432 1,765 Utah? 7,144 8,100 6,930 6,210 7,336 10,118 11,220 13,682 Wyoming? 7,858 7,493 8,370 7,319 8,253 9,978 11,522 14,540 133,077 123,395 130,460 130,211 148,234 162,913 178,293 216,078 Pacific Coast California> 53,945 60,420 56,560 53,200 45,600 63,649 69,779 83,855 Oregon” 8,553 8,673 7,360 8,930 9,250 11,834 12,449 13,991 Washington” 18,838 20,140 21,060 9,450 24,700 19,207 20,301 23,793 81,336 89,233 84,980 71,580 79,550 94,690 102,529 121,639 US: Total 412,565 376,194 405,810 420,159 447,008 466,943 SOS171 587,357 ® Little or no barley production in the state, at present or expected. » State did not provide estimates. Estimates based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. ¢ Estimates based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. 4 Revised estimates based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. © Three- year average. ‘ Two-year average. Table 6.— Grain Sorghum Production: 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 and Projections for 1984, 1989, and 1999 Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Nordieact™ bushels (000) Lake States* Corn Belt Illinois 4,188 4,080 3:953 4,096 4,624 6,849 9,134 14,931 Indiana® 1,176 P52 1,407 1,170 975 1,941 2,229 2,889 Towa? 1,868 1,612 1,690 2,368 1,800 2,281 2,566 3,162 Missouri? 50,488 26,460 39,600 67,890 68,000 31,198 43,251 57,866 Ohio® Soe shox seats ohn ae: ote Bh or 57,720 33,304 46,650 75,524 75,399 42,269 57,180 78,848 Northern Plains Kansas? 191,488 144,060 169,850 243,000 209,040 231,218 249,387 293,676 Nebraska? 127,105 104,500 119,700 146,970 137,250 118,795 126,962 143,559 North Dakota® sas we Sc Faye ee rer acs Pear South Dakota? 10,866 6,162 3,496 16,807 17,000 20,093 22,191 26,746 ; 329,459 254,722 293,046 406,777 363,290 370,106 398,540 463,981 Appalachia Kentucky” 1,588 1,400 1,700 1,824 1,426 1,500 1,900 2,100 North Carolina‘ 4,015 4,335 4,590 2,664 4,472 5,613 6,361 8,086 Tennessee? 1,194 1,265 1,265 1,020 1,224 2,481 2,849 3,887 Virginia® 476 484 473 430 517 960 1,120 1,490 West Virginia® abs Pe ioe aes ose Ast Sts ee Tole 7,484 8,028 5,938 7,639 10,554 12,230 15,563 Southeast Alabama? 1,073 22] 1,085 729 1,258 1,209 1,200 1,275 Florida® see dees Ses Boe ats Beto mee eco Georgia» 1,434 1,880 1,935 672 1,247 2,481 3,012 4,289 South Carolina® 444 595 510 192 480 890 1,066 1,490 2,951 3,696 3,530 1,593 2,985 4,580 5,278 7,054 (cont'd) 16 Table 6, continued/Grain Sorghum Production and Projections Average, 1975-1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 1984 1989 1999 Telia Area bushels (000) Arkansas? 12,601 9,800 15,500 13,104 12,000 23,401 29,075 41,387 Louisiana® 707 608 980 660 578 1,150 1200 1,465 Mississippi® 1,103 1,330 1,517 768 798 1,266 1,241 1,104 14,411 11,738 17,997 14,532 13,376 25,817 31,571 43,956 Southern Plains Oklahoma* 18,910 19,760 16,950 21,470 17,460 74,093 86,797 86,797 Texas? 281,388 374,400 292,900 230,400 227,850 442,782 484,719 582,870 300,298 394,160 309,850 251,870 245,310 516,875 571,516 669,667 Mountain Region Arizona® 6,924 8,160 6,643 7,200 5,694 16,228 17,618 20,965 Colorado® 8,062 7,540 7,252 8,153 9,300 9,835 10,210 11,337 Idaho* ae Mee See meted ate sey te dae Montana®* Nevada® Rae ote eis wots dere fais sie aie New Mexico® 12,871 15,500 11,940 11,760 12,282 19,909 21,801 26,252 Utah® Yee see ioe Mere gress ace ae das Wyoming* af aie shes ae ane aint Abo sae 27,857 31,200 25,835 2/UT3 27,276 45,972 49,629 58,554 Pacific Coast California® 13,146 14,904 14,910 9,636 13,135 14,617 12,939 10,237 Oregon® si cee es eae eis ee Me ei Washington® en She Boe me dees oe ne aes 13,146 14,904 14,910 9,636 135135 14,617 12,939 10,237 U.S. Total 753,114 751,208 719,846 792,983 748,410 1,030,790 1,138,883 1,347,860 “Little or no grain sorghum production in the state, at present or expected. » Revised estimates based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. ert not provide estimates. Estimates are based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. 4 Estimates based on NIRAP series issued March 10; : Table 7. — Corn Consumption by Livestock, 1976 and 1977, and Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama?* () 84,683 92,098 95,371 105,888 Arkansas* (») 88,832 108,061 121,536 151,185 Georgia*® 129,250 136,055 141,062 150,104 168,106 Illinois* 196,423 186,986 238,599 246,287 263,714 Indiana® (®) 245,200 245,230 246,763 261,013 lowa* 419,972 420,392 491,885 443,647 475,590 Kansas*® 4 76,638 80,671 90,740 102,236 126,583 Kentucky* 63,800 66,100 84,700 87,000 90,600 Louisiana* (°) 18,114 23,641 26,388 26,682 Michigan® 99,662 81,199 100,103 105,299 119,529 Minnesota® (@) 248,776 392,159 504,485 544,221 Mississippi* 67,659 57,850 62,469 64,249 68,562 Missouri* (°) 116,812 148,014 156,278 176,570 Montana* 730 825 899 1,052 1,277 Nebraska* 4 153,678 169,843 191,056 202,894 234,922 North Dakota* 6,482 6,150 5,912 5,510 5,504 Ohio® 127,589 130,221 126,465 123,325 118,785 Oklahoma? (°) (») 70,345 72,876 79,168 South Dakota‘ 138,508 89,408 152,430 158,521 171,125 Tennessee* 71,479 71,484 74,995 77,887 85,257 Texas® 4 111,277 120,621 191,648 200,669 219,494 ® Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. » State did not provide data. ¢ Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. 4 Estimates for consumption and transportable surplus of corn and grain sorghum in Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas are based on feed requirements supplied by corn and grain sorghum. The split between these two grains depends on the rations used. It is particularly difficult to estimate the amount of each grain fed in states where a large amount of grain sorghum is produced, Market conditions, especially relative prices, will have a major influence on the relative feed use of each grain in the future, so the divi- sion is a very tentative one. 17 Table 8.— Wheat Consumption by Livestock, 1976 and 1977, and Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama*® (@) 1,903 1,699 1,499 1,064 Arkansas* (@2)) 3,860 5,192 5,883 7,316 Georgia® 3,517 3,842 4,572 4,971 5,784 Illinois* 9,191 8,607 11,566 11,991 12,824 Indiana (@) 1,776 1,864 1,935 2,061 lowa® 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas* 7,018 6,897 7,546 8,720 10,772 Kentucky* 1,400 1,500 2,400 2,400 2,400 Louisiana® 0) 0 0 0 0 Michigan® 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota* (G2) 9,134 8,762 10,000 12,942 Mississippi*® 352 374 266 261 254 Missouri*® (>) 7,344 5,428 5,006 4,821 Montana* 67,117 60,879 3,928 5,583 6,223 Nebraska* 0 0 0 0 0 North Dakota* 1253: 1,189 1,056 1,092 1,188 Ohio® 2,526 2,406 3,556 3,411 S13 Oklahoma® (*) (») 2,010 2,089 - 2,278 South Dakota® 2,211 1,675 1,793 1,837 1,943 Tennessee* 6,682 1,302 1,431 1,456 1,530 Texas® 7,043 10,349 2,922 3,316 3,850 ; 8 Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978, » State did not provide data, ¢ Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. Table 9. — Oat Consumption by Livestock, 1976 and 1977, and Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama® (») 9,455 9,833 9,996 10,700 Arkansas* (P) 4,010 5,819 6,527 7,990 Georgia* 6,535 6,800 Fale 7,688 8,744 Illinois* 8,387 7,850 8,826 8,793 8,943 Indiana‘ @) 1,689 8,660 8,865 9,196 lowa® 48,758 55,342 45,919 49,883 54,660 Kansas® 5,400 10,192 6,270 6,726 7,219 Kentucky* 14,100 . 14,100 14,400 14,700 14,500 Louisiana® (2) 5,133 9,962 10,572 11,762 Michigan® 10,104 10,304 11,899 12,676 14,176 Minnesota® @) 52,118 49,498 39,245 18,740 Mississippi* 10,352 8,742 11,402 9,964 10,188 Missouri? aos noe ae ave sore Montana® 10,750 7,536 11,097 14,096 17,222 Nebraska® 28,910 27,720 34,494 39,422 49,310 _ North Dakota* 30,057 28,619 22,869 23,180 23,892 Ohio* 19,751 17,010 21,746 21,774 22,406 Oklahoma® (2) (°) 4,310 4,577 4,457 South Dakota® 59,367 54,193 59,028 59,496 61,874 Tennessee* 4,258 4,258 4,008 3,924 3,519 Texas® 1,789 13,977 16,303 16,280 16,028 8 Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978, » State did not provide data. ¢ Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. Table 10.— Barley C ption by Livestock, 1976 and 1977, and Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama* ( 70 79 0 0 Arkansas* 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia® 682 718 782 844 968 Illinois® 1,411 1,387 1,233 1,179 1,110 Indiana® 0 0 0 0 0 Towa® 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas* 1,900 2,341 2,800 2,800 2,800 Kentucky* 3,500 3,600 4,100 4,100 4,200 Louisiana® 0 0 0 0 ) Michigan® 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota® (*) 4,231 5,466 5,820 6,293 Mississippi* 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri® 0 0 0 0 0 Montana® 31257 25,785 34,760 33,458 35,684 Nebraska® 1,188 1,140 1;257 1,328 1,507 North Dakota® 8,825 8,337 7,443 7,488 7575) Ohio* 0 0 0 0 0 Oklahoma® (°) (>) 9,606 9,568 10,879 South Dakota® 6,203 5,098 6,927 7,197 7,810 Tennessee* 568 568 599 612 856 Texas® 0 3,865 4,179 4,368 4,803 ® Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. » State did not provide data. © Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. Table 11. — Grain Sorghum C ption by Livestock, 1976 and 1977, and Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama?® (G2) 3,554 3,570 3,457 2,847 Arkansas® () 13,970 17,009 19,130 23,797 Georgia* 4,692 4,924 5,039 5,356 5,968 Illinois® 7,505 7,043 9,569 9,972 10,890 Indiana® 0 0 0 0 0 lowa® 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas® 4 130,892 137,781 143,273 161,425 200,341 Kentucky* 6,600 6,800 8,500 8,900 8,900 Louisiana* ( 4,507 6,412 6,739 6,649 Michigan® 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota* 0 0 0 0 0 Mississippi* 2,502 2,547 2,765 2,812 3,994 Missouri® (>) 31,908 18,938 27,837 37,197 Montana* 0 0 0 0 0 Nebraska® 4 19,832 21,918 22,452 22,586 23,707 North Dakota® 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio*® 0 0 0 0 0 Oklahoma® (¢)) (b) 34,756 36,120 39,120 South Dakota® 19,490 12,665 22,501 23,609 25,935 Tennessee* 1,465 1,465 1,472 1-721 2,234 Texas® 4 112,260 110,989 186,569 188,076 199,673 8 Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978, » State did not provide data. * Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. 4 See footnote d, Table 7. 19 20 Table 12.— Grain Consumption by Livestock, 1976 and 1977, and Projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 tons (000) Alabama (@) 2,681 2,889 2,972 3,248 Arkansas (e3) 3,060 REY 4,221 5,249 Georgia 3,976 4,188 4,363 4,645 oyu Illinois 6,154 5,850 7,467 7,704 8,244 Indiana (a) 6,948 7,064 7 ldZ 7,520 Iowa 12,539 12,656 14,508 13,220 14,192 Kansas 6,154 6,543 6,948 7,822 9,662 Kentucky VARA 2,398 3,010 3,090 3,191 Louisiana G2) 7i8 1,001 1,097 PA Michigan 2,952 2,439 2,993 3151 3,574 Minnesota ¢%) 8,176 12,166 15,194 16,076 Mississippi 2,141 1,842 2,016 2,045 2,203 Missouri a) (*) e)) (®) (ea) Montana 2,958 2,589 ISS 1,225 1,355 Nebraska 5,348 5,839 6,059 6,977 8,067 North Dakota 912 866 731 737, 754 Ohio 3,966 3,990 3,996 3,903 3777 Oklahoma 3) (Cs) 3,303 3,418 3,712 South Dakota 5,591 3,897 6,062 6,280 6,753 Tennessee 2,324 2,164 2,262 2351 2;573 Texas 6,499 6,852 11,041 115352 12,226 8 State did not provide data. Table 13.— Corn Surpluses or Deficits, 1976 and 1977, and Projected Surpluses for 1985, 1990, and 2000, Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama* @) (36,683) (65,698) (67,246) (72,138) Arkansas® () (86,312) (105,941) (119,400) (148,551) Georgia* (25,850) (2,135) (33,139) (30,797) (29,788) Illinois* 1,057,537 1,053,144 966,804 1,072,858 1,217,862 Indiana® P 447,799 368,520 388,692 459,402 lowa® 671,728 753,508 782,155 943,244 1,100,308 Kansas*:4 61,122 91,169 114,032 141,309 186,076 Kentucky* 24,000 72,600 55,300 68,000 89,400 Louisiana* (@) (14,734) (21,069) (24,262) (25,259) Michigan* 53,130 60,251 55,119 61,772 84,303 Minnesota® (P) 81,624 259,187 197,335 220,288 Mississippi* (61,714) (49,766) (56,967) (59,317) (64,770) Missouri* (°) 57,038 126,086 144,258 176,570 Montana* 0 0 0 0 0 Nebraska® 4 349,559 344,757 672,354 798,808 1,063,425 North Dakota* 1,158 1,425 5,787 6,856 8,649 Ohio* 193,491 263,239 308,364 344,675 423,215 Oklahoma® (2) (®) (64,437) (66,119) (70,710) South Dakota® (55,258) (52,208) (37,283) (44,776) (54,493) Tennessee*® (34,579) (15,029) (36,965) (38,095) (42,955) Texas® 4 2,023 59,379 (42,995) (34,322) (21,975) : ® Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. » State did not provide data. ¢ Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. 4 See footnote d, Table 7. Table 14, — Wheat Surpluses or Deficits, 1976 and 1977, and Projected Surpluses for 1985, 1990, and 2000, Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama® (2); 392 313 633 1,206 Arkansas* (2) 20,710 13,250 16,018 21,004 Georgia* 128 (277) 165 698 1,712 Illinois* 58,279 63,543 36,973 35,453 37,389 Indiana (i) 52,226 53,397 54,925 56,971 Towa® 3,400 4,550 2,686 3,077 3,763 Kansas* 338,082 332,103 371,774 427,260 527,848 Kentucky* 10,568 8,700 8,800 10,800 14,400 Louisiana® 256 759 782 748 694 Michigan* 38,760 37,620 33,363 33,018 33,584 Minnesota® (>) 121,348 116,403 133,805 171,944 Mississippi® 4,088 4,846 3,581 O75 3,778 Missouri* (ey 50,736 48,481 51,072 54,568 Montana® 88,808 106,416 136,397 153,463 185,039 Nebraska* 98,240 94,000 119,172 138,809 173,884 North Dakota® 286,577 177,274 290,946 312,252 371,404 Ohio*® 71,814 61,594 66,144 68,089 71,587 Oklahoma® @) (>) 170,662 184,374 210,723 South Dakota® 61,083 37,845 66,553 68,131 72,106 Tennessee® 2,928 11,093 10,878 13,345 18,055 Texas® 124,057 93,051 98,536 119,585 153,911 ‘ a Based on NI issued March 10, 1 nae series issued July 14, 1978, » State did not provide data. © Based on NIRAP series 975. Table 15.— Oat Surpluses or Deficits, 1976 and 1977, and Projected Surpluses for 1985, 1990, and 2000, Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama® (a) (8,530) (8,582) (8,721) (9,380) Arkansas® (2) 280, (458) (573) (761) Georgia* (3,904) (3,620) (3,443) (3,543) (3,894) Illinois* 18,260 14,570 13,597 13;523 13,511 Indiana® @) 8,511 2,342 1,818 1275 lowa* 29,782 27,258 32,548 32,636 37,120 Kansas* (1,040) (1,792) (330) 353 911 Kentucky* (13,700) (13,800) (14,100) (14,500) (14,300) Louisiana* i) (4,755) (9,702) (10,411) (11,758) Michigan* 10,616 9,331 7,783 7,039 5,893 Minnesota* (>) 42,642 38,891 30,836 44,725 Mississippi* (9,272) (7,786) (10,456) (8,968) (9,190) Missouri? pee eae shee Ter ste Montana?* 0) 0 1,530 0 0 Nebraska* 0 0 0 0 0 North Dakota* 11,490 16,053 37,020 BLASS 25,688 Ohio?* 10,749 11,490 6,254 5,126 3,694 Oklahoma‘® (2) (2) (854) (1,295) (1,647) South Dakota* 38,753 (11,593) 34,988 41,324 51,520 Tennessee*® (3,058) (2,818) (2,722) (2,599) (2,087) Texas® 17,711 453 (761) 643 3,853 . ® Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. © State did not provide data. © Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. 2a 22 Table 16. — Barley Surpluses or Deficits, 1976 and 1977, and Projected Surpluses for 1985, 1990, and 2000, Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama® (CB) 11 (10) 71 75 Arkansas? 0 0 0 0 0 Georgia* (492) (448) (328) (362) (407) Illinois* (823) (989) (651) (587) (488) Indiana*® 400 378 459 472 516 Towa® 0 0 140 126 99 Kansas® (50) (39) 95 108 214 Kentucky* (2,242) (2,800) (1,700) (1,400) (900) Louisiana* 0 0 0 0 0 Michigan* 799 874 1,063 1,125 1,276 Minnesota® (*) 31,029 40,082 42,684 46,150 Mississippi* 0 0 0 0 0 Missouri* 324 256 369 351 337 Montana* 19,443 26,280 34,691 43,580 58,376 Nebraska?* 0 0 0 0 0 North Dakota® 72,495 59,868 78,294 82,374 93,487 Ohio® 561 S72, 604 631 701 Oklahoma® (>) (>) (38) (108) (1,520) South Dakota® 11,467 34,422 14,295 15,399 16,437 Tennessee* (134) (36) 39 68 (76) Texas® 2,380 (1,837) (1,738) (1,803) (1,926) , a Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. » State did not provide data. ¢ Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975. Table 17. — Grain Sorghum: Surpluses or Deficits, 1976 and 1977, and Projected Surpluses for 1985, 1990, and 2000, Selected Southern and North Central States 1976 1977 1985 1990 2000 bushels (000) Alabama® () (2,469) (2,361) (2,257) (1,572) Arkansas? (3) 1,530 6,392 9,945 17,590 Georgia® (2,812) (2,989) (2,558) (2,344) (1,679) Illinois (3,425) (3,090) (2,720) (838) 4,041 Indiana* 1,152 1,407 1,941 2,229 2,889 Towa?* 1,612 1,690 2,281 2,566 3,162 Kansas* 4 13,168 32,069 87,945 87,962 93,335 Kentucky* (5,200) (5,100) (7,000) (7,000) (6,800) Louisiana® (>) (3,527) (5,262) (5,484) (5,184) Michigan* 0 0 0 0 0 Minnesota® 0 0 0 0 0 Mississippi* (1,172) (1,030) (1,499) GES 7B) (2,890) Missouri* (°) 7,692 12,260 15,414 20,669 Montana® 0 0 0 0 0 Nebraska® 4 84,668 97,782 96,523 104,375 119,851 North Dakota? 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio* 0 0 0 0 0 Oklahoma® (@) @) (39,336) (50,677) (47,677) South Dakota® (13,328) (9,169) (2,407) (1,417) 811 Tennessee* (200) (200) 1,009 1,128 1,653 Texas®4 262,140 181,911 256,213 296,643 389,197 @ Based on NIRAP series issued July 14, 1978. » State did not provide data. © Based on NIRAP series issued March 10, 1975, 4 See footnote d, Table 7. Table 18. — Corn Balance Sheet, 1977 Jan., 1977 Consumption = ~Jani1978 Surplus stocks Production Livestock Seed Processors Total stocks or deficit bushels (000) Alabama 24,082 10,875 84,683 116 7,430 92,229 10,344 (67,616) Arkansas 1,725 2,279 88,832 50 0 88,882 2,016 (86,894) Georgia 72,473 24,000 136,055 452 250 136,757 24,712 (64,996) Illinois 1,012,341 1,163,400 186,986 2,806 121,618 311,410 1,041,203 823,128 Indiana 478,370 633,420 245,200 L531 66,384 SES LIS 446,202 352,473 Iowa 1,050,091 1,092,200 420,392 2,756 194,700 617,848 1,128,442 396,001 Kansas 121,944 161,280 80,671 487 1,200 82,358 125,700 75,166 Kentucky 107,569 132,300 66,610 353 12,376 79,339 96,495 64,035 Louisiana 14,780 3,380 18,114 35 0 18,149 15,640 (15,629) Michigan 99,704 197,200 81,119 507 0 81,676 144,097 7131 Minnesota 304,034 — 600,000 248,776 1,464 0 250,240 556,762 97,032 Mississippi 5,078 5,760 57,850 47 0 57,897 3,922 (50,982) Missouri 129,737 201,400 116,812 860 39,300 156,972 150237. 22,928 Montana (°) 748 825 12 0 837 @) (89) Nebraska 432,969 648,450 169,843 1,403 14,323 185,569 593,888 301,962 North Dakota 5,545 17,301 6,150 109 0 6,259 15,162 1,425 Ohio 287,204 380,100 130,221 1,010 17,040 148,271 293,108 225,925 Oklahoma 4,275 7,790 @) (*) ©) 32,000 4,939 24,874 South Dakota 38,640 126,850 (3) ©) (G2) 89,408 92,863 (16,781) Tennessee 29,554 47,450 (*) (ey @) 79,434 31,558 (33,988) Texas 126,906 161,700 120,621 421 39,190 160,232 126,698 (1,676) ® State provided figures only for total consumption. » State had only very small grain stocks. Table 19. — Soybean Balance Sheet, 1977 Jan., 1977 Consumption Jan., 1978 Surplus stocks Production Seed Processors Total stocks or deficit bushels (000) Alabama 19,296 33,600 2,340 33,792 36,132 18,872 (2,108) Arkansas 52,521 105,800 5,115 51,632 56,747 86,915 14,659 Georgia 20,718 21,800 1,376 31,057 32,433 19,364 (9,278) Illinois 219,562 336,300 5,551 170,973 176,524 283,688 95,650 Indiana 66,309 144,300 3,902 65,554 69,456 82,533 58,620 Iowa 218,283 251,340 4,936 143,194 148,130 242,289 79,204 Kansas 17,821 28,215 1,071 36,000 37,071 23,950 (14,985) Kentucky 19,851 40,920 1,540 16,352 17,892 30,025 12,855 Louisiana 30,203 62,980 4,063 13,797 17,860 37,183 38,140 Michigan 5,079 21,600 730 0 730 11,570 14,379 Minnesota 73,994 133,835 951162 63,415 68,577 107,398 31,854 Mississippi 45,868 78,475 4,125 31,053 35,178 49,336 39,829 Missouri 56,324 148,800 4,050 38,647 42,697 86,014 76,413 Montana? eee Svea Rees poe aa eyes see Nebraska 21,456 40,680 1,869 () (©) 36,061 z North Dakota 1,626 3,500 198 0 198 2,996 (1,932) Ohio 61,351 119,900 4,080 22,427 26,507 77,376 77,368 Oklahoma 2,587 7,820 (°) (°) 2,434 5,134 2,839 South Dakota 4,040 9,608 680 0 680 6,510 6,458 Tennessee 26,104 52,170 (2) () 50,033 27,940 301 Texas 6,982 20,140 720 1,653 2.373 12,633 12,116 "No data provided, b Little or no soybean production or utilization. © State provided figures only on total consumption. 23 Table 20. — Wheat Balance Sheet, 1977 Jan., 1977 Consumption Jan., 1978 Surplus stocks Production Livestock Seed Processors Total stocks or deficit Alabama Arkansas Georgia Illinois Indiana Towa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma South Dakota Tennessee Texas bushels (000) 1,572 2,520 1,903 136 0 2,039 289 1,764 2,474 25,740 3,860 1,254 0 5,114 4,102 18,998 1,109 3,300 3,842 320 1,100 5,262 902 (1,755) 40,578 67,510 8,607 2,703 36,623 47,933 51,435 8,720 16,706 55,800 1,776 2,565 9,329 13,670 16,280 42,556 3,855 4,033 0 308 6,124 6,432 3,106 (1,650) 371,231 344,850 6,897 11,969 69,066 87,932 390,713 237,436 4,729 10,138 1,500 646 2,285 4,431 4,257 6,179 6,323 850 0 38 6,069 6,107 9,915 (8,849) 20,615 33,000 0 1,827 8,000 9,827 26,095 17,693 103,827 131,894 9,134 2,883 76,101 88,118 146,184 1,419 587 3,570 374 209 0 583 339 3,235 49,876 68,640 7,344 2,950 54,413 63,707 45,736 9,073 138,790 130,920 60,879 4,028 7,748 72,355 148,850 48,505 95,108 103,250 (®) (®) (4) 23,868 115,120 59,370 263,087 229,907 1,189 13,944 7,009 22,142 293,578 177,274 42,631 72,380 2,406 3,634 32,386 38,426 50,756 25,829 126,291 175,500 (4) (®) (8) 31,550 141,173 129,068 40,819 71,964 (8) (4) (4) 4,554 74,191 34,038 5,844 10,080 (4) (4) (8) 26,477 4,915 (15,468) 98,298 117,500 10,358 5,671 19,418 35,447 138,302 42,049 ® State provided figures only on total consumption. Table 21. — Grain Sorghum Balance Sheet, 1977 Jan., 1977 Consumption Jan., 1978 Surplus stocks Production Livestock Seed Processors Total stocks or deficit Alabama Arkansas Georgia Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Michigan® Minnesota® Mississippi Missouri Montana® Nebraska North Dakota® Ohio® Oklahoma South Dakota Tennessee Texas bushels (000) 347 729 3,554 102 0 3,656 335 (2,915) 3,640 13.104 13,970 39 0 14,009 6,701 (3,966) 791 672 4,924 22 0 4,946 336 (3,819) 2,175 4,096 7,043 17 0 7,054 2,333 (3,122) (>) 1,170 0 5 0 5 (>) 1,165 2,617 2,368 0 1 0 at 1,629 3,345 139,562 243,000 137,781 4,382 3,500 145,663 193,935 42,964 1,019 1,824 6,800 9 0 6,809 1,129 (5,095) 643 660 4,507 20 0 4,527 465 (3,689) 0 768 2,547 12 0 2,559 0 (1,791) 21,882 67,890 31,908 93 6,992 38,993 33,220 17,559 101,130 146,970 21,918 3,289 0 25,207 134,865 88,028 12,543 21,470 (8) (4) (4) 17,027 18,650 (1,664) 3,227 16,807 (4) (4) (4) 12,665 14,157 (6,788) (>) 1,020 1,465 3 0 1,468 (>) (448) 169,512 230,400 110,989 671 44,082 155,742 190,927 53,242 _ ® State provided tion in the state. 24 figures only on total consumption. > State had only very small grain stocks. ° Little or no grain sorghum production or utiliza- 5M—7-80—48341—RES — %s