HURRICANE HEAT POTENTIAL OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND NORTH PACIFIC OCEANS

Richard Francis Heffernan

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

Monterey, California

THESIS

NORTH

HURRICANE HEAT POTENTIAL

OF THE

ATLANTIC AND NORTH PACIFIC

OCEANS

by

Richard

Francis Heffeman

Thesis

Advisor:

Da.

Le

F.

Le

Lpper

September 1972

T1A8519

Approved ^oh. puhtic nol.2.a.b><L; diAVvibiitlon imlimite.d.

Hurricane Heat Potential
of the
North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans

by

Richard Francis Heffernan
Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy
B. S., Massachusetts State College at Westfield, 1963

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of

Master of Science in Oceanography

from the

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
September 1972

//'

ABSTRACT

Mean monthly ocean temperature data provided by Fleet Numerical
Weather Central were used as a basis for computation of a quantity
defined as hurricane heat potential. Warm, deep centers with heat
potential values in excess of 32,000 cal/crn^ existed east of the
Philippine Islands during the months of July through November. In the
Western Atlantic warm, deep centers in excess of 24,000 cal/cm^ existed
south of Cuba during the months of August through October. Correlation
studies were made between sea surface temperature and heat potential. A
weak correlation was found, leading to the conclusion that sea surface
temperature at least at times is a poor indicator of oceanic heat content.
Computations were made to determine the effect of average heat less during
a severe tropical storm passage to the ocean thermal structure. Twenty-
four hour average losses would cause the sea surface temperature to drop
as much as three degrees celsius under certain initial conditions. The
effects of heat loss on convective layer depth ranged from less than
fifteen meters to over ninety meters.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

I . INTRODUCTION 9

A. REVIEW OF LITERATURE 9

B. OBJECTIVE 11

II. APPROACH TO PROBLEM 12

A. General 12

B . THE MODELS 15

1. Mean Monthly Hurricane Heat Potential

2. Mean Monthly Depth of 26C Isotherm

3. Mean Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Modification
After Passage of a Hurricane

4. Mean Monthly Convective Layer Depth After Passage of
Hurricane

III . DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 17

A. COMPARISON OF MONTHLY MEAN VALUES 17

1. Philippine Sea

2. Caribbean Sea

3. Eastern Pacific

B. CORRELATIONS BETWEEN PARAMETERS 23

1. Sea Surface Temperature vs. Heat Potential

2. Sea Surface Temperature vs. Depth 26C Isotherm

3. Depth 26C Isotherm vs. Heat Potential

C. TYPHOON INTENSIFICATION RELATED TO HURRICANE HEAT POTENTIAL 33

D. CALCULATED CHANGES IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTIVE
LAYER DEPTH AFTER PASSAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 35

IV. CONCLUS IONS 39

V. RECOMMENDATIONS 41

CHART SERIES A: ATLANTIC OCEAN, 5N-40N LATITUDE

1. August Mean Sea Surface Temperature

2. Monthly Mean Hurricane Heat Potential

3. August Mean Depth of 26C Isotherm

4. August Mean Sea Surface Temperature Modification
After Passage of a Hurricane

a. 6 Hour Affect

b. 12 Hour Affect

c. 24 Hour Affect

d. 36 Hour Affect

5. August Mean Convective Layer Depth After Passage of Hurricane

a. 6 Hour Affect

b. 12 Hour Affect

c. 24 Hour Affect

d. 36 Hour Affect

6. August Mean Layer Depth

CHART SERIES B: PACIFIC OCEAN, 5N-30N LATITUDE

1. August Mean Sea Surface Temperature

2. Monthly Mean Hurricane Heat Potential

3. August Mean Depth of 26C Isotherm

4. August Mean Sea Surface Temperature Modification
After Passage of a Hurricane

a. 6 Hour Affect

b. 12 Hour Affect

c. 24 Hour Affect

d. 36 Hour Affect

5. August Mean Layer Depth

APPENDIX: COMPUTER PROGRAMS 88

BIBLIOGRAPHY 103

INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 105

FORM DD 1473 108

LIST OF TABLES

Table Page

1 Heat Potential for Different Values of Sea Surface
Temperature - August 27

2 Depth of 26C Isotherm for Different Values of Sea Surface
Temperature - August 28

3 Heat Potential for Selected Depths of 26C Isotherm - August. 29

4 Oceanic Characteristics of Maximum Typhoon Intensification
Regions of the North Western Pacific 30

5 Oceanic Characteristics of Low-Latitude Typhoon Weakening
Regions of the North Western Pacific 31

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page

1 Thermos tructure Schematic Showing Convective Layer Depth

as Increasing Amounts of Heat are Lost 15

2 Mean Monthly Heat Potential Histogram - Philippine Sea .... 18

3 Mean Monthly Heat Potential Histogram - Eastern Pacific... 18

4 Mean Monthly Heat Potential Histogram - Caribbean Sea 18

5 Monthly Frequency Distribution of Tropical Cyclone 19
Occurrences (1945-1963) - Western North Pacific (Brand, 1972)

6 Monthly Frequency Distribution of Cyclogenesis (1921-19 71) -
Eastern Pacific (Hansen, 1972) 19

7 Monthly Frequency Distribution of Tropical Cyclone
Occurrences (1901-1963) - North Atlantic (Cry, 1965) 19

8 Tropical Storm Development Regions (Gray, 1967) 20

9 Correlation Plot of Sea Surface Temperature vs. Heat
Potential - August 24

10 Correlation Plot of Sea Surface Temperature vs. Depth

26C Isotherm - August 25

11 Correlation Plot of Depth 26C Isotherm vs . Heat

Potential - August 26

12-34 Chart Series A - Atlantic Ocean 42-64

35-57 Chart Series B - Pacific Ocean 65-87

58 Historical Plot of Typhoon Tracks, August - Western

Pacific (Liechty, 1972) 36

59 Historical Plot of Hurricane Tracks, August - Western
Atlantic (Cry, 1965) 37

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am grateful to Dr. Dale F. Leipper who suggested this study and
provided continual direction and encouragement.

I thank Mr. James Newton Perdue of Fleet Numerical Weather Central,
Monterey, California for his gracious cooperation and selfless assistance
in providing the basic oceanic data and computer plotting programs.

I extend my gratitude to Mr. Kevin Rabe and Mr. Sam Brand of
Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, California for their
assistance in providing oceanic data.

A special thanks to my wife Kay who, as usual, has stood beside me
and helped out whenever possible - accomplishing the preliminary typing
and assisting in the chart lay-outs.

DEFINITIONS

The following key terms and their definitions are used throughout

this thesis:

Hurricane Heat Potential - Excess ocean heat content over that
contained in 26°C water (Whitaker, 196 7)

Layer Depth - Taken as the depth at which the temperature differ-
ential from the surface is 1.12°C (2°F) .

Sea Surface Temperature Modification - The temperature decrease
at the sea surface due to heat loss during the passage of a severe
tropical storm.

Convective Layer Depth - Depth of severe tropical storm influence
to thermal structure due to convective and mechanical mixing.

Depth of 26C Isotherm - Depth below which no heat potential exists
(The assumed maximum depth of severe tropical storm influence on
the thermal structure due to heat loss) .

Excess Temperature - The increment of temperature above 26° C.

Hurricane - A major storm in the Atlantic with winds greater than
64 knots .

Typhoon - A major storm in the Pacific with winds greater than
64 knots.

Tropical Storm - A major storm with winds greater than 34 knots.

Severe Tropical Storm - A hurricane or typhoon.

I. INTRODUCTION

A. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

The tropical storm problem has consumed much time and effort in the
environmental sciences yet a completely satisfactory understanding
remains to be achieved.

It has been known for some time that tropical storms derive energy
from the ocean over which they travel. Leipper and Volgenau (19 72)
summarized investigations of the relationships between sea surface
temperature and severe tropical storms. These investigations indicated
that severe tropical storms intensified over warm water and dissipated
over cool water. In a specific study Perlroth (1967) stated that use of
sea surface temperature as the sole oceanic criterion for use in
tropical storm studies was not sufficient but that knowledge of the
ocean's vertical temperature profile was essential in determining the
available energy. Perlroth used the difference between sea surface
temperature and the temperature at 200 feet in the Equatorial Atlantic
to indicate mean "potentials" in the ocean for the intensification of
tropical storms to hurricanes. He analyzed all hurricanes during the
period 1901-1965 and found that approximately 90% had their origin over
areas where the average (64 year) vertical temperature difference between

o

the surface and 200 feet was 3.9 C or less and that only 4% had their
inception when the gradient was greater than 8.4°C. Of course, other
factors may be involved in explaining this indicated relationship.

Although Perlroth cautions forecasters on relying too heavily on sea
surface temperature data, it usually is a good indicator for use in
tropical storm studies. Severe tropical storms do not form over areas
where the sea surface temperature is less than 26C (BYERS, 1959).

Using the 26C reference Leipper and Volgenau (1972) studied the
hurricane heat potential of the Gulf of Mexico during the month of August
for the individual years 1965 to 1968 when unusual pre-hurricane season
oceanic data were available. They found that the hurricane heat potential
varied from approximately 700 to 31,600 calories/cm^ column. The areas
of high heat potential were found to vary yearly. Computations showed
that a passing hurricane with an assumed flux from the sea of 4,000
cal/cm^/day would cause the sea surface temperature to decrease .8°C to
3.1°C per day, depending on the initial temperature structure in the
region considered.

The approximate figure of 4,000 cal/cnr/day average heat loss from
the ocean during passage of a typical hurricane is indicated by the work
of Malkus and Riehl (1960) who used a value of 3,140 cal/cm^/ day;
and by Whitaker (1967) whose calculations for hurricane Betsy were 3,750
cal/cm2/day. Since the sensible and latent heat transfer formulas are
linearly dependent on wind speed, the 4,000 cal/cm^/day value would be
increased or decreased to fit the "non-typical" storms. However, use of
the rough figure of 4,000 gives a good approximation and enables calcu-
lations to be made of hurricane effect on sea surface temperature and
convective layer depth.

Other researchers who employed the hurricane heat potential concept
were Leipper and Jensen (1971). They calculated the sea surface tempera-
ture changes during passage of a hurricane using the same base data and

10

average heat consumption criterion as Volgenau. Jensen's computations
indicated sea surface temperature decreases sometimes less than one
degree and sometimes more than four degrees celsius after a twenty-four
hour period depending upon initial ocean temperature structure. He found
that, in general, areas of high concentrations of heat had smaller decreases
of sea surface temperature with a given heat loss. Computed and observed
post-hurricane sea surface temperatures were compared and a fair corre-
lation was found. Jensen considered the computed values to be more
representative of actual conditions immediately after passage of a
hurricane than the observed values since advective processes probably
distorted the observed values taken at some later date.

B. OBJECTIVE

This thesis has two primary objectives, the first is to produce a
Monthly Mean Hurricane Heat Potential Atlas based upon bathythermograph
data for selected regions in the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
(this atlas also includes Mean Monthly Sea Surface Temperatures, Mean
Monthly Depths of the 26C Isotherm, and Mean Monthly Layer Depths) . The
second objective is to compute chanages in sea surface temperature and
in the convective layer depth which would be associated with heat loss
from the ocean in a severe tropical storm passage. Upwelling effects
upon these quantities has been considered by other authors.

11

II. APPROACH TO PROBLEM

A. GENERAL

1. Data

The data used in this thesis consist of monthly sea temperatures
primarily from bathythermograph data taken at one-degree quadrangles at
100 feet levels down to 400 feet (Pacific) or 500 feet (Atlantic) . The
data was obtained from a report prepared by Margaret K. Robinson at
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (S. I. 0.). The Pacific data (last
revision January 1972) was based primarily on mechanical bathythermograph
observations collected at S.I. 0. for the past 29 years from ships of the
United States Navy and Coast Guard, and research vessels of scientific
institutions. To a lesser degree, Robinson used data from expendable
bathythermographs analyzed at Fleet Numerical Weather Central; exchange
data from foreign institutions; hydrocast files from National Oceanogra-
phic Data Center; Eastropac STD data tapes, and data reports and Atlases.
The North Atlantic data were based on the work of Elizabeth H. Schroeder
of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) , and is not finished
(last revision November, 1970).

2. Area of Investigation

The region selected involves the width of the Pacific Ocean from
S-^ON latitude and the Atlantic Ocean from 5N to AON latitude.

3. Units

Throughout this thesis, temperature will be expressed in degrees
Celsius; heat potential will be in calories per square centimeter column;

12

depth will be by meters or centimeters; specific heat at constant
pressure will be in calories per gram-degree; density will be grams per
cubic centimeter.

For computational simplification, density of sea water is
assumed 1.0 gm/cm^; and specific heat of sea water is assumed 1.0 cal/gm-
degree. As a further simplification, when the 100 feet depth interval
is expressed in meters, the depth is stated as 30 meters although the
computations employ the more exact conversion of 30.48 meters.
4. Critical Hypothesis

Throughout this study values obtained are contingent upon the
following:

26C Water: In order for hurricanes to receive heat from the
ocean, an air-sea temperature differential must exist. Assuming that
the approximate temperature of the air in the core of an average hurricane
is 26C, then water temperature greater than 26C would be needed to
provide input fuel to the hurricane.

4000 cal/cm^/day Hurricane Fuel Consumption: The assumption that
an average hurricane consumes ocean heat at roughly the rate of 4,000
cal/cm2/day is based on previous studies.

It is recognized that the critical sea surface temperature and
the heat lost per day may differ from hurricane to hurricane. However,
the convenience of these simple and fairly accurate average values is
believed to well justify the use of them.

Mathematical Relations: Heat potential computations are based
on the iteration of the following relation':
Q = Cp- /»• T • Z

13

Where;

Q = Hurricane Heat Potential, (cal/cm ) .
Cp = Specific Heat at Constant Pressure, (cal/gm-degree)
ft = Density, (gm/cm^)

T = Excess temperature over 26C (degrees celsius) .
Z = Depth increment, (cm).

14

B. The Model - Main Analysis Program

SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURE (

°C)

*6 27

28

29

1

1 /

""" I

—20 W

CLD AFTER 6 HRS

—i

5

SS

. . . . PLT) AFTER 12 KRS

— 40 O

-

' ' * ' CLD AFTER 3& ^b
. . . . CLD WHEN T - 26C

— 60

*

SEPTEMBER MEAN THERMAL STURCTURE AT 9N 48W

FIGURE (1): THERMOSTRUCTURE SCHEMATIC SHOWING CHANGE IN
CONVECTIVE LAYER DEPTH (CLD) AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HEAT
ARE LOST.

Figure (1) schematically demonstrates the logic of the programs for
sea surface temperature decrease and convective layer depth. Horizontal
advection and upwelling effects are not considered - only the criterion
that an average hurricane consumes one thousand cal/cm^ for each six
hour period. Further detailed explanations of the computer programs can
be found in the Appendix.

Computer programs were made following the logic of Volgenau (19 70)
for heat potential computations and Jensen (1970) for sea surface
temperature modification due to ocean heat loss to an average hurricane.
From these computations contour plots were drawn using Mr. Perdue' s
computer plotting program used at Fleet Numerical Weather Central. Plots

15

of Hurricane Heat Potential, Sea Surface Temperature Modification,
Convective Layer Depth, Sea Surface Temperature, and Mixed Layer Depth
were made for each month of the year. However, in this thesis are
included only plots of Monthly Mean Hurricane Heat Potential for each
month of the year as well as plots for the month of August of Sea
Surface Temperature Modification, Convective Layer Depth, Mean Sea
Surface Temperature and Mean Layer Depth. The remaining plots are
available in the Naval Postgraduate School Oceanography Department files

16

III. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

A. COMPARISONS OF MONTHLY CHARTS

In order to achieve a meaningful comparison of mean monthly heat
potentials between the three tropical storm development regions, repre-
sentative one degree quadrangles were selected within these areas and
plotted as Figures (2) through (4). In comparing Figures (2), (3) and
(4) (histograms of mean monthly heat potential for the Philippine Sea,
Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea respectively) a similarity of patterns
can be noted. In each a minimum of heat potential occurred in March
followed by a maximum of heat in August. Figures (5), (6) and (7) (giving
monthly frequency distributions of tropical cyclone occurrences for the
Western Pacific, Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic respectively) show
maximum occurrence of storms in the month of September.

From Figures (2) , (3) and (4) it can be seen that month for month the
Philippine Sea has the greatest heat potential. This is possibly related
to the fact that as shown in Figure (8) there are more than three times
as many tropical storms yearly in the Philippine Sea than in the
Caribbean Sea.

In comparing the August mean hurricane heat potentials (Figure 20)
with those calculated by Leipper and Volgenau (1972) for the individual
years 1965-1968 it was found that the mean values were much lower. In
fact, although Leipper and Volgenau found heat potentials of approximately
32,000 cal/cm^ in the Gulf of Mexico, mean values did not exceed 15,000
cal/cm2. Never-the-less , similar patterns were found between the mean
heat potential plots and plots resulting from super-imposing the 15,000
cal/cm^ ocean heat contours for all August cruises, 1965-1968. Leipper

17

•J

fi-
fe

,0

►-3

' l_h ;

J *' M A M

J A S 0 N D

35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000

5000
0

FIGURE (2): MEAN MONTHLY HEAT POTENTIAL HISTOGRAM
PHILIPPINE SEA (LAT 15N LONG 130E)

fi
(A

J V )1 A H J J A S 0 N D

FIGURE (3): MEAN MONTHLY HEAT POTENTIAL HISTOGRAM
EASTERN PACIFIC - (LAT 15N LONG 100W)

s

f-

FIGURE (4): MEAN MONTHLY HEAT POTENTIAL HISTOGRAM
CARIBBEAN SEA (LAT 17N LONG 80W)

18

— TOTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE OCCURRENCES

' ' ' TYPHOON OCCURRENCES

OCCURRENCES
2 34 KTS

FIGURE (5): MONTHLY FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRENCES (1945-1969)
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC [BRAND 1972]

0 N D

FIGURE (6) : MONTHLY FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
OF CYCLOGENESIS (1921-19 71) - EASTERN
PACIFIC [HANSEN 1972]

-

-

CO

w
u

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Pi
Pi

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-

-

r

-

2

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-

175
150

125
100
75

50

25
0

A

0 N-M

FIGURE (7): MONTHLY FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRENCES (1901-1963) -
NORTH ATLANTIC [CRY 1965]

19

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20

and Volgenau found two areas, one just north of the western tip of Cuba
and one midway across the Gulf of Mexico north of Yucatan, had potentials
greater than 15,000 cal/cm2 in each of the four years observed. The
mean heat potential plots had warm centers in excess of 12,000 cal/cm2 in
two areas, one located off the western tip of Cuba and the other just
northwest of the warm center that existed during the 1965-1968 period.

The tongue of high potential (greater than 15,000 cal/cm2) that
Leipper and Volgenau found running from the western tip of Cuba toward the
Mississippi Delta in individual years was not apparent in the August mean
heat potential plot. It is interesting to note that the September mean
heat potential plot (Figure 21) had this characteristic warm tongue,
although all values were less than 16,000 cal/cm .

Analysis of the 12 monthly hurricane heat potential plots for the
North Atlantic (Figures 13-24) reveals that south of Cuba sufficient
heat exists in every month to support a hurricane for twenty - four hours.
This is not true for the Gulf of Mexico where heat potentials of 4,000
cal/cm^ or greater exist only from June through November.

In the North Eastern Pacific, warm centers migrate from month to

2
month. Starting in January, the warm center (greater than 4,000 cal/cm )

migrates in a southwest direction. By April this warm center has

2
increased in heat content (greater than 8,000 cal/cm ) and migrated

approximately six hundred miles to the 120W meridian. From April to May

the heat potential plot shows a dramatic change. The warm center has

shifted direction and magnitude. It now migrates towards the Mexican

coast in an easterly direction, moving over four hundred miles in one

2
month. The May heat potential values in the center exceed 12,000 cal/cm .

The warm center continues to move eastward, but by July the center has

21

"cooled" to less than 12,000 cal/cm . The August warm center has migrated
east of the 106W meridian and once again contains values in excess of
12,000 cal/cm . By November the center has cooled to less than 8,000
cal/cm^, but in December the 8,000 cal/cm^ center reappears.

The migrating warm centers which characterized the Eastern Pacific

were not typical of any other area. The Western Pacific was characterized

2
as having stable warm centers 24-32 thousand cal/cm east of the Philippine

Islands during all twelve months of the year. The North Atlantic had

warm centers which varied in magnitude seasonally (4,000-24,000 cal/cmz)

but always remained south of Cuba.

22

B. CORRELATIONS BETWEEN PARAMETERS

In an attempt to evaluate possible correlations between sea surface
temperature (T) , heat potential (Q) , and depth of the 26C isotherm (Z) ,
a computer subprogram was used to plot combinations of T vs Q, T vs Z,
and Z vs Q. If any such correlations exist they would provide a convenient
means of estimating heat potential from the simpler and more readily
available quantities T and Z.

1. Data Presentation

At first data were selected geographically by 5 degree bands
from 5N-30N extending across both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. The
months of August and November were chosen for analysis. Since the results
were encouraging, further analysis was made, this time by selected
Oceanographic regions having fairly uniform water mass characteristics.
Three areas in each ocean were selected; South China Sea (Lat 5-20N,
Long 110-117E), Philippine Sea (Lat 15-25N, Long 120-135E), Eastern
Pacific (Lat 10-20N, Long 110-120W) , Gulf of Mexico (Lat 20-30N, Long
100-85W) . Caribbean Sea (Lat 5-20N, Long 90-65W) , and Eastern Atlantic
(Lat 5-20N, Long 45-15W) .

A characteristic of the UTPLOT subprogram used in displaying the
data in figures (9) through (11) is that multiple points are plotted,
one on the other, so that there appears to be only one data point for a
fix T vs Q (for example) when in fact there could be any number of points.
In order to ascertain the true relationship, the LSQPL2 subprogram was
used to determine a least square fit for all of the data, This curve,
superimposed on the data, is represented by crosses. Tables (1) through
(3) were constructed by selecting values for the independent variable
(T) or (Z), then determining the corresponding dependent variable

23

0.0

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:330

275

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165

110

PACIFIC OCEAN - LAT
15N-20N

• • • it

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EXCESS T2iP - °C

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EXCESS TEMP - *C

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• • » • • •

• • • 4 • • •

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4* :

4

55

330

275

220

165 PHILIPPIC SSA

110

55

300

250

200

a

iso CARIBBEAN SEA

100

50

FIGURE ( 9 ) : CORRELATION
PLOT C? SEA SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURE VS. H2AT POTENTIAL

AUGUST

24

0,0

oo

Jl.,2

2J5 3.7

BXCESS~TaTp"-"'«c""'

5.0

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108

81

ATLANTIC OCEAN
IAT 15N-20N

54

27

62

135

08

3, CARIBBEAN SEA

54

27

38

15

92-

69 PHILIPPINE SEA

46

23

FIGURE (10)1 CORRELATION
PLOT OE SE'^ SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURE VS. DEPTH C? 26C
ISOTJEHH - AUGUST

25

O 0

25 _ 50 75

DSPTH*'(KEfEHS) '"

100

162

135

• -4

toe?.

V

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D2PTH CMETERS)'

:j:2o:,

:.yso.

.;?

-•/.

y

PS

*3

.*.-

81 GULF 0? MEXICO

54

27

300

250

200

150

100

50

330

2/5

220

110

55

CARIBBEAN SEA

153 PHILIPPINE SEA

FIGURE. (11 )i CORRELATION
PLOT OF DEPTH 0? 26C
ISOTHERM VS. HEAT POTENTIAL
AUGUST

26

TABLE. (1) - HEAT POTENTIAL (cal/cmz) FOR DIFFERENT
VALUES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE - AUGUST

REGION

BOUNDARY

NO. DATA
POINTS

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

27C

28C

29C

29. 5C

PACIFIC

SOUTH

CHINA SEA 100E-117E

5N-10N

1033

10N-15N

914

15N-20N

537

20N-25N

271

25N-30N

137

5N-20N

124

370

8980

22500

27730

1480

7500

11760

30000

1110

5970

19120

30000

1110

5600

14630

25460

740

4120

13470

17590

_

3250

7250

_

PHILIPPINE 15N-25N

168

10500

22130

SEA

120E-135E

EASTERN
PACIFIC

5N-20N
110W-120W

160

1125

-

-

-

ATLANTIC

5N-10N

286

2250

7910

-

-

10N-15N

392

1000

6400

15600

-

15N-20N

327

1110

8240

17220

26980

20N-25N

276

1110

5970

15375

* 24350
19490

25N-30N

2 71

1110

1710

8240

* 17590
16110

GULF OF
MEXICO

20N-30N
100W-85W

128

-

1400

* 6400
2200

* 10800
3600

CARIBBEAN
SEA

5N-20N
90W-65W

217

740

7130

18400

26620

EASTERN
ATLANTIC

5N-20N
45W-15W

361

+ 2270
1120

-

-

-

*Two values were read from the plot due to recurvature

27

TABLE (2) - DEPTH 26C ISOTHERM (METERS) FOR DIFFERENT VALUES OF
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE - AUGUST

REGION

BOUNDARY

NO. DATA
POINTS

SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURE

27C

28C

29C

29. 5C

PACIFIC

5N-10N •

1033

37.0

66.60

104.6

142.6

10N-15N

914

-

* 89.8
56.0

112.5

119.9

15N-20N

537

14.8

* 72.3
29.6

104.6

119.9

20N-25N

271

7.4

* 37.5
11.1

86.1

104.6

25N-30N

137

14.8

37.5

63.9
* 48.6

71.6

SOUTH

5N-20N

124

31.7

64.0

43.6

CHINA SEA

110E-117E

PHILIPPINE

15N-25N

168

-

45.2

74.8

98.5

SEA

120E-135E

EASTERN

5N-20N

160

38.1

31.7

-

-

PACIFIC

110W-120W

ATLANTIC

5N-10N

286

30.0

58.1

60.0

-

10N-15N

392

28.0

50.0

74.0

-

15N-20N

32 7

34.8

64.1

95.8

117.4

20N-25N

276

36.75

53.3

61.4

61.4

25N-30N

271

21.8

35.0

46.8

50.0

GULF OF

20N-30N

128

-

-

45.2

41.6

MEXICO

100W-85W

CARIBBEAN

5N-20N

SEA

90W-65W

217

24.0

58.7

101.4

120.0

EASTERN

5N-20N

ATLANTIC

45W-15W

361

• 30.0

50.0

-

-

*Two values were read from the plot due to recurvature

28

TABLE (3) HEAT POTENTIAL (cal/cm2) FOR SELECTED
DEPTHS OF 26C ISOTHERM (METERS) - AUGUST

REGION

BOUNDARY

NO. DATA

DEPTH OF 26C

POINTS

30m

60m

100m

120m

PACIFIC

5N-10N

1033

1850

8980

25460

29700

10N-15N

914

1850

9 350

19140

27730

15N-20N

537

1110

9350

20600

27360

20N-25N

271

1480

11500

22500

-

25N-30N

137

3380

11620

-

-

SOUTH

5N-20N

124

4100

11478

_

—

CHINA SEA

110E-117E

PHILIPPINE

15N-25N

168

3400

11550

22500

27500

SEA

120E-135E

EASTERN

5N-20N

160

3700

5300

_

_

PACIFIC

110W-120W

ATLANTIC

5N-10N

286

1800

7600

-

-

10N-15N

392

2000

8000

16800

24000

15N-20N

32 7

1500

7000

18000

23500

20N-25N

276

2500

8500

19000

24500

25N-30N

271

3600

1000

-

-

GULF OF

20N-30N

MEXICO

100W-85W

128

4000

7200

-

-

CARIBBEAN

5N-20N

217

2000

8500

18000

23500

SEA

90W-65W

EASTERN

5N-20N

361

1600

7600

_

_

ATLANTIC

45W-15W

29

TABLE (4) - OCEANIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MAXIMUM
TYPHOON INTENSIFICATION REGIONS OF THE NORTH WESTERN PACIFIC

MONTH

REGION

LAT
LONG

HEAT DEPTH 26C LAYER SEA SURFACE
POTENTIAL ISOTHERM DEPTH TEMPERATURE
(CAL/CM2) METERS METERS " °C

x 10

-2

JULY

13N-17N
152E-158E

160-280 120+

60-75 28-29

AUGUST

12N-17N

162E-172E

5N-14N

130E-145E

160-200 90-105
240-320 105-120

60+ 28+
60+ 29+

SEPTEMBER 5N-12N
161E-170E

180-240 90+

60+ 28-29

5N-18N
156E-173E

160-240 90-120

60+ 28-29

OCTOBER

5N-11N
151E-132E

8N-12N
142E-150E

240-320 90-105

200-280 90-120

60-75 29+

60 29+

NOVEMBER 5N-10N

132E-142E

240-320 105+

60+ 29-30

8N-16N 200-320 90-120
153E-164E

60-75 28-29

30

TABLE (5) - OCEANIC CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW - LATITUDE
TYPHOON WEAKENING REGIONS OF THE NORTH WESTERN PACFIC

MONTH

REGION

LAT
LONG

HEAT

DEPTH 26C LAYER SEA SURFACE

POTENTIAL ISOTHERM DEPTH TEMPERATURE
(CAL/CM^) METERS METERS " °C
x 10-2

JULY

20N-30N
110E-130E

40-60

30-75

15-30 27-29

26N-30N
130E-150E

0-40

0-45

15-30 26-21

AUGUST

20N-30N
110E-130E

40-240

30-75

30-45

29

27N-30N
130E-158E

40-80

15-75

15-30 27-28

SEPTEMBER 18N-30N
110E-130E

40-200

60-90

30-60 28-29

23N-30N
130E-140E

40-120

30-60

30-45 28-29

22N-30N
150E-140E

40-120

30-60

30-45 27-21

OCTOBER

10N-30N
110E-120E

40-120

30-75

30-45 27-21

20N-30N
120E-140E

40-120

30-75

30-60 27-2i

25N-30N
140E-160E

40-100

45-60

45-75 27-28

NOVEMBER

18N-30N
110E-120E

0-40

0-75

45-75 24-27

15N-30N
120E-130E

0-200

0-105

45-75 24-29

18N-30N
130E-160E

0-160

0-90

60-75 24-28

31

(Q) or (Z) by reading from the plot the value at the intersection of the
least square curve and the independent variable. Sea Surface temperature

is plotted in degrees celsius for values in excess of 26 C. Heat Poten-

2 — 7
tial is plotted in (cal/cm ) x 10 . Depth of the 26C isotherm is in

meters .

2. Description of Results

T vs . Q As indicated in Table (1), knowledge of sea surface

temperature does not lead to a positive determination of heat content in

the ocean. The general pattern indicates an increase in heat content with

increased sea surface temperature, however, a decrease in heat content

is noted with increased latitude for a given sea surface temperature.

The data when different regions are compared show no consistency in the

relationship between sea surface temperature and heat content. The

scatter diagrams of T vs. Q, Figure (9), show a wide, range of heat values

for given values of temperature. It is interesting to note that the

Pacific data for Lat 15-20N show a near linear least square approximation.

Also a straight line can be used to approximate the upper boundary of the

data point scatter.

T vs . Z Table (2) shows trends similar to those shown in Table

(1) . As a rule, the higher the sea surface temperature, the deeper is the

26C isotherm. For a given sea surface temperature, the depth of the 26C

in the Atlantic does not show as regular a pattern of decreasing depth

with increased latitude as is the case in the Pacific. The scatter

diagrams for T vs . Z, Figure (10), show a wide spread of values about

the least square curve indicating a poor correlation between sea surface

temperature and depth of the 26C isotherm in all regions.

32

Z vs . Q By far the best correlation of data was found between
the depths of the 26C isotherm and heat potential. Table (3) shows a
consistent increase of heat content with increased depth. Further, the
data reveals a close correlation of values between latitude bands and
also a good correlation between oceanographic regions. Figure (11) shows
that with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico, there is an excellent
grouping of data about the least square curve. The correlation plot
in the Gulf of Mexico might be taken to indicate that there is more than
one water mass present in the upper layers which is indeed the case (Leipper,
1970).

A study of the above mentioned relationships for other months
(April, July, October) revealed the same pattern that existed for August.
In a selected region, the correlation between parameters of T, Q, and Z
remained nearly as good for the different months. This is not to imply
that given a sea surface temperature that the corresponding heat potential
and depth of 26C were the same for each month. On the contrary, it was
found that August values for Z and Q were the highest for a given sea surface
temperature and these values varied seasonally.

C. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM INTENSIFICATION RELATED TO HURRICANE HEAT
POTENTIAL

Brand (1972) analyzed track segments of thirty typhoons in the

Western Pacific (1945-1969) covering the period forty-eight hours prior

to reaching the Philippines to twenty-four hours after leaving the islands.

Brand noted an average increase in intensity during the period forty-eight

to twenty-four hours prior to reaching the Philippines. Over water, winds

reached and maintained a speed of ninety-two knots. Over land, the average

intensity decreased to about sixty-two knots. After this 33% reduction,

the intensity increased again in the South China and Sulu Seas.

33

In addition, Brand examined the average speed of movement of these
typhoons and determined that there was a decrease in speed until about
twenty hours before reaching the islands, then there was a slight (10%)
acceleration when the Philippines were approached. There was a decrease
in speed as the storm passed over the Philippines and moved into the
Sourth China and Sulu Seas.

These studies show distinct geographical and seasonal preferences
for both rapid intensification (fifty knots or more in twenty-four hours)
and low - latitude weakening (twenty - knots or more in twenty-four
hours) of tropical cyclones.

Table (4) gives values of various oceanic parameters for the respec-
tive areas of maximum typhoon intensification. In all instances these
areas were characterized by exceeding the following minima: hurricane
heat potential of 16,000 cal/cm , depth of the 26C isotherm of ninety
meters, layer depth of sixty meters and sea surface temperature of
twenty-eight degrees celsius.

Table (5) gives values of various oceanic parameters for the respective
areas of low-latitude weakening of typhoons. These areas were characterized
by the following minima: hurricane heat potential of 0-4000 cal/cm , depth
of the 26C isotherm thirty meters or less in eleven of thirteen cases,
layer depth forty-five meters or less in twelve of thirteen cases and
thirty meters or less in nine and sea surface temperature of 27C or less
in ten of thirteen cases.

Comparative analysis of the maxima and minima of heat potential and
depth of the 26C isotherm revealed that areas of typhoon intensification
are characterized by deep, warm water and areas of low - latitude
weakening of typhoons are characterized by relatively shallow, cool water.

34

Figures (58) and (59), historical plots of August severe tropical
storms for the Western Atlantic and Pacific, give an indication of the
"mean pattern" of the August storms. No obvious relationship was noted
between these tracks and the August mean heat potential plots, Figures
(20) and (43).

D. CALCULATED CHANGES IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER
DEPTH AFTER PASSAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

The Sea Surface Temperature Modification Program was designed to
calculate the range of sea surface temperature changes resulting from
the heat loss to severe tropical storms under different initial conditions.
The Convective Layer Program was designed to calculate the depth of the
warm, highly mixed water generated in various regions in the wake of
severe tropical storms assuming average initial conditions. This infor-
mation would have much direct usefulness in such areas as Naval operations,
weather forecasting and fisheries.

The data from these two programs, when plotted, graphically demonstrate
the extent of the geographic area of the ocean which can be changed due
to heat lost to hurricanes and typhoons. It can be seen that researchers
would arrive at different conclusions as to severe tropical storm affects
to the thermal structure depending upon the area investigated. Analysis
of the various monthly plots revealed that in areas of high hurricane
heat potential there is less measureable affect upon the ocean thermal
structure during the passage of severe tropical storms than in areas of
low heat potential. Closer analysis revealed that areas of iso-heat
potential may have dissimilar convective depths and sea surface temperature

35

FIGURE (58): HISTORICAL PLOT OF TROPICAL STORMS AND TYPHOON TRACKS,
AUGUST - WESTERN PACIFIC [LIECHTY 1972]

AUG Mb
1060-1069

^~4

/

/

36

FIGURE (59): HISTORICAL PLOT OF HURRICANE TRACKS, AUGUST - WESTERN
ATLANTIC [CRY 1965]

3^Vx? i

37

modification depending upon the initial thermal gradient. The thermal
gradient must be considered when computing hurricane affects.

An analysis of August values was performed. August was selected
because it marks the beginning of the main severe tropical storm season.

Depths to which heat loss to the storm affects modified the thermal
structure varied from fifteen to sixty meters for a twelve hour storm.
Given a twenty-four hour storm, or two successive twelve hour storms,
then the depths affected extend to a maximum of seventy-five meters - with
thirty to forty-five meters being the most prevalent over the area. The
maximum sea surface temperature reduction due to. this storm passage was
a little over three degrees celsius but this also varied monthly.

These tropical storm affects can persist for several weeks according
to Leipper (1967) and Hazelworth (1968) . This time probably depends on
such factors as the speed, size, and intensity of the storm as well as
the initial mixed layer depth and the temperature gradient of the ther-
mocline (and a few other atmospheric features) .

38

IV. CONCLUSIONS

1. Areas of typhoon intensification are characterized by deep, warm
water and areas of low-latitude weakening are characterized by presence
of some relatively shallow, cool water.

2. In areas of high hurricane heat potential the calculated affects
upon the ocean thermal structure during passage of tropical storms was

less than in areas of low heat potential.

2

3. Twenty-four hour affects of 4,000 cal/cm /day heat consumption

caused the sea surface temperature to drop a negligible amount in some
areas to more than three degrees celsius in others depending upon
initial sea temperature structure. The thermal affects reached a depth
of over ninety meters in some areas - and in other areas only depths less
than fifteen meters were affected.

4. The known tropical storm development regions were characterized
by a heat potential maximum in August and sufficient heat to sustain a
hurricane in each month of the year.

5. There existed only a poor correlation between sea surface tempera-
ture and corresponding heat potential for a particular area.

6. Warm, deep centers of water with heat potential values in excess
of 32,000 cal/cm2 existed east of the Philippine Islands during the
months of July through November. In the Western Atlantic warm, deep
centers in excess of 24,000 cal/cm2 existed south of Cuba during the
months of August- through October.

7. In comparing the August mean hurricane heat potentials with
those calculated by Leipper and Volgenau (1972) for the individual
years 1965-1968 it was found that the mean values were much lower. They

39

found heat potentials as high as 32,000 cal/cm2 in the Gulf of Mexico
whereas mean values did not exceed 15,000 cal/cm2.

8. In the North Eastern Pacific, warm centers of hurricane heat
potential (4,000-12,000 cal/cm2) migrated from month to month.

9. The Western Pacific was characterized as having stable warm
centers of hurricane heat potential (24,000-32,000 cal/cm2) east of the
Philippine Islands during all twelve months of the year.

10. The North Atlantic had warm centers of hurricane heat poten-
tial (4,000-24,000 cal/cm2) which varied in magnitude seasonally but
always remained south of Cuba.

40

V. RECOMMENDATIONS

It is recommended that:

1. A pattern of airborne expendable bathythermographs be strat-
egically dropped across tropical storm tracks, before and after passage
of storms, in order to increase the present completely inadequate data
base on thermal structure modifications due to severe tropical storms.

2. Continued studies be made using the hurricane heat potential
concept. The monthly mean values should be compared with values in
selected years to determine if significant yearly variability exists
and if differences in severe tropical storms from year to year are
associated with ocean differences.

3. Mr. James N. Perdue 's Ocean Plot Program used extensively for
this theses at Fleet Numerical Weather Central be adapted for the IBM
360 computer so that Naval Postgraduate School students can have an
ocean plot program.

41

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APPENDIX (A)

I. COMPUTER INPUT

A. Data stored on tapes HEFATL and HEFPAC were used as the basis
for this study. The data were in the form of eighty character card
images written in the format:

(12, Al, 14, Al, 12, 12F4.1, 2 2X) .

The following information was assigned to the above storage:

12 - latitude (LAT.)

Al - north or south (N. or S.)

I A - longitude (LONG)

Al - East or West (E. or W.)

12 - level (LVL)

12F4.1 - sea temperature in degrees Farenheit for each level and
month

22X - space filler

II. COMPUTER OUTPUT

A. Atlantic sea surface temperature modification Program (DLT)
sample output.

LAT LONG LVL sea surface temperature change (°C) per month

09N 48W 0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 2.0

09N 48W 1 6.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 11.0 9.0 4.0 4.0

09N 48W 2 10.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 13.0 16.0 14.0 9.0 9.0

09N 48W 3 10.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 8.0 12.0 17.0 21.0 19.0 13.0 13.0

88

For the above program, LVL 0 = 6 hour hurricane affect on the
sea surface temperature. LVL1 = 12 hour affect. LVL 2 = 24 hour affect.
LVL 3 = 36 hour affect. The months range in order from January through
December. The temperatures are in degrees celsius times 10. The 10
multiple was necessary for use with the plot routine.

B. Atlantic Convective Layer Depth program (MXL) sample output:
LAT LONG LVL Convective layer depth (meters) per month

09N 48W 0 33.3 20.3 0.0 34.8 36.6 30.5 34.3 25.4 22.2 22.9 33.3 33.4
09N 48W 1 41.6 20.3 0.0 47.9 48.8 50.8 41.9 34.3 30.5 32.3 36.0 36.3
09N 48W 2 52.6 20.3 0.0 47.9 54.9 65.0 57.1 43.8 40.0 41.2 42.9 43.5
09N 48W 3 52.6 20.3 0.0 47.9 54.9 65.0 64.3 51.4 49.5 50.2 48.5 49.3

For the above program, LVL 0=6 hour hurricane affect on the
thermos tructure. LVL 1 =zl2 hour affect. LVL 2 = 24 hour affect.
LVL 3 = 36 hour affect.

C. Atlantic combined Sea Surface Temperature (°C), Heat Potential
(cal/cm times 10"^) and Depth of the 26C Isotherm (meters) program
(TQZ) sample output.

LAT LONG LVL values of temp, heat, or depth per month

09N 48W 0 27.1 26.2 26.0 26.4 26.8 26.9 27.4 28.2 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.6
09N 48W 1 35.1 1.7 0.0 14.9 23.2 33.6 60.8 81.8 73.7 65.0 72.2 66.9
09N 48W 2 51.7 17.4 0.0 47.9 55.4 67.1 66.7 61.0 55.4 53.1 53.5 53.2
For the above program, LVL 0 = sea surface temperature. LVL 1 =
heat potential. LVL 2 = depth 26C isotherm.

89

III. DETAILED EXPLANATION OF PROGRAMS
A. MEAN MONTHLY HURRICANE HEAT POTENTIAL

The computer program was designed to allow for four cases:

Case(l): Sea Surface Temperature Less Than 26°C. This was com-
putationally simple as the heat potential by definition was zero.

Case(2): Sea Surface Temperature Greater Than 26°C And Only
One Level of Data Reported Due to Water Depth Less Than 30 Meters.

For a general solution, the water depth was set at 15 meters.
The column of water was then partitioned into increments and heat
computations were made for each segment above 26°C (referred to as
excess temperature) . The temperature profile was assumed decreasing
linearly with depth to 26C at 15 meters. This was the most satis-
factory means of providing an approximate value for heat potential.
The situation arose infrequently and only when the one-degree quad-
rangle included or was contiguous with land, thus these values did
not overly effect the field of computations.

Case(3) : Sea Surface Temperature in Excess of 26°C and more
than One Level of Data was Available.

This was the most common situation. There was the possibility
of 4 to 5 difference levels being present since the data were avail-
able at 100 foot depth intervals. For instance, the first differ-
ence level consisted of the difference between sea surface tempera-
ture and the temperature at 30 meters (approximately 100 feet) .

90

If the column was isothermal, the heat was computed simply by multi-
plying the excess temperature by the 3,000 cm depth. If not isother-
mal, the column was incremented assuming a linear variation between
readings and heat computations were made for each segment using the
a.verage T of that segment down to the deeper level. The process then
continued to the next levels or until case (4) arose.

Case (4): Temperature in Entire Column In Excess of 26°C. In
this case, a linear assumption was again made between levels. The
temperature difference between the last reported temperature at an
even 30 meter level and 26°C was found. The projected depth to the
26°C isotherm was assumed to be 15 meters from the last level. This
assumption provided a means to account for the temperature in excess
of 26°C below the last reported level. Cases where this occurred
were rare and the assumed heat values were small, thus the overall
field was not effected.

B. DEPTH OF 26°C ISOTHERM

Determining the depth of the 26° C isotherm is important in that
it gives and indication of the depth of the warm water.

The following cases apply:

Case (1) : Sea Surface Temperature Less Than 26°C. The depth
of the 26°C isotherm is defined as zero meters.

Case (2) : Sea Surface Temperature Greater than 26°C and only
One Level of Data Reported Due to Water Depth Less than 30 Meters.

91

The 26°C isotherm is assumed to be at 15 meters. This is a simple
approximation to fit a general case. An exact solution could be ob-
tained only if depths were recorded from charts and averaged over the
60 square miles of the area quadrangle being considered. This proced-
ure would be too cumbersome and thus was not seriously considered.

Case(3) : Sea Surface Temperature In Excess of 26°C and More Than
One Level Of Data Was Available.

In this case, incremental values of depth are added until the
depth of the 26C isotherm is reached.

Case (4): Temperature In Entire Column In Excess of 26°C.

In this case, the same procedures as in case (3) were followed
and than the case j(2) assumption is made.

C. TEMPERATURE LOSS FROM THE SEA SURFACE AFTER PASSAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.

Using the logic of Jensen (1970), this model simulated the with-
drawal of heat from a given initial temperature profile by artificially
lowering the sea surface temperature in 0.1C increments. The quantity
of heat contained within each trapezoidal area produced between the
old and new sea temperatures was calculated. A cumulative total was
maintained and when the total reached 1000 cal/cm^ the sea temperature
simulated the passage of a severe tropical storm with a traverse time
of six hours. When the total reached 2,000 cal/cm2 , a traverse time
of twelve hours was simulated. 4,000 cal/cm^ corresponded to a twenty-
four hour traverse time.

92

D. CONVECTIVE LAYER DEPTH

The convective layer depth is determined by adding the incre-
mental depth values until the required calories/cm2 for each storm
duration is reached, or until all heat potential is removed from the
ocean.

93

//HEFQ11
// EXEC
//FORT.S

C ME

C US

C RE

49 JOB ( 1149, 0521FT,OP12) , • HEF FERNAN. . BOX. H1 ,TIME=7
FORTCLGP,REGION=100K

YSIN CC *

•J* J* "»■'- O* *A- yy «.l* ■>.'*• «J." J* -J*- »A» *A» -.'» <■*- J.

an oceanTheat potent
ing mean temperature
gion by one degree s

, ■_ i, „' ■ v- O* -"^ -J* -J- -V -J- -X- »■-

,,..,... 2f. -.. -», -,-. -.- -,t ,,-. *r- -,-

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*r -tt ~r* -v «nr -•- or- ^* **r» ',- •*,- *r *** *m ^ *tt -> T -

IAL COMPUTATIONS FOR ATLANTIC
DATA COMPUTED BY M.K.ROBINSON

QUARES

■jt* .J- J, j„ O, V, j^ <Ju ->, J/ y, -x. o- «v -<- -J' «JL- sU <J. -JU »U -X. -J, iJU ,i* -', V' - I* -J' «■'- -1' «*r i"r «V
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DI
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MM
TT
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CA

204 RE
11 =

200 F0

203

229
C

PURPOSE:

CA

1.T0 COMPUTE (

OVER THAT
2. TO COMPUTE*
3. TO COMPUTE
GUMENTS:

A-TEMPERATUPE

TEMP-TEMPERAT

CP-SPECIFIC H

TAKEN AS 1

QI-INCREMENTA

RHO-DENSITY,

Zl-DEPTH OF I

APPROX WIT

■Q-CUMULATIVE

ZI-SEQUENTIAL

HR( J-NUMSER 0

STORM OBTA

FOR A FIXE

1000 CAL/C

AS CONSTAN

TEMP2-CALCULA

OF TROPICA

DIST-VARI ABLE

METER LEVE

XXX-INCREMENT

ZZZ-CONSTANT

OF INCREME

Z2-INCREMENTA

LRY=AMOUNT OF HEAT H

INTERVAL HR( ).

Q),THE EXCESS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
CONTAINED IN 26C WATER.
Z1),THE DEPTH OF THE 26C ISOTHRM
(A), THE SEA SFC TEMP IN DEGREE C

DEGR
URE D
EAT A
.0 CA
L HE A
TAKEN
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32
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OF WATER
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IOD TAKEN

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S BETWEEN 30

E.

ING NUMBER

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TAINED DURING TIME

■V -r* i* v-

.i, j, J, O, x X X X j, J, J- ,.«_„< -C -J- *t- J- *v J. J, x x v, J- x x xXXJ,aUrU/JUvUUl.gU4> 0/U"JixXXXXXX

^ s 0* ^ — ,- ,,- ,, . -p, j^ v ' • n* -v -i ■- *i* «i n" -r -r Ji ^* -^ **.- * - *v *,- -,- ^r *r- -.* *r *r -r- *r *.- ?r~ *.- Jr *r i- T- *.- --- <- t V -r -r i-

2001

201

205
206

SV
DO
MA
RE
FO
IF
RE
CO
IC
GO
IC
DO
DO
A(

ME
ST
TE
= 0
TT
X =
Z =
06
12
24
36
LL
AD
It
RM
LO

C

X

AD

RM

(L

AD

NT

NT

T

NT

1

1

I ,

NSICN A( 12 ,6) ,TEMP
(12),QI( 12) ,DIFF( 1
GER P, CLRY,Z111,TT

(12,6) ,TEMP2 (12) , Q( 12 ) , KCNT ( 12 ) ,

2) ,Z1( 12) ,X( 12,6)

1

= 2
.0
20
= 1

-z

= 4
= 6
R
(4
12
AT
NG
01
VA
(4
AT
ON
(9
IN
= J
0

= J

J

I

J)

6.03

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ERE
,20
)

(12
= LO
J =
LUE
,20
(12
Gl.
9,2
UE

0

0

0

0

AD

0,END=2)

LAT

XI ,L0NG,IY,LVL,(TEMP(I,LVL + 1 ) ,
14, Al , I2,12F4.1,22X)

,A1

NG
2,6

FOR PACIFIC
CD LAT1,X2,L
, Al , 14, Al, 12,
NE.SVLONG) GO
00) LAT,X1,L0

IS 5 LEVELS
0NG1 ,1 Yl ,LVL1
70X)

TO 205
NG,I Y,LVL,(TEMP(I , LVL+ 1 ) , I =1 , 12 )

206

-1

=1,ICNT

= 1, 12

=(TEMP(I

J)-32.0 )*(5 ./9. )

94

c

c
c

699

C
C

25

700

1090

703

17
44

1091

1092

19
13

X( I, J)

CONTIN

DO 300

CP=1.0

RH0=1.

Q(I)=0

1111)=

TEMP2(

P=0

NA=ICN

IF(X(I

IF(NA.

GO TO

THIS C

ONLY S

WATER.

KCNT( I

ZI=15.

JCNT=K

DIST (I

DO 25>

12=11/

Zl (I ) =

P=P+1

TEMP2(

QI (I ) =

IF(QI (

Q( I) = Q

IFCTEM

CONTIN

GC TO

THIS I

GREATE

CONTIN

DO 13

IF(X{I

IF(X{ I

IF(X(I

DIFF( I

CONTIN

KCNT( I

ZI=30.

IF(KCN

GO TO

CONTIN

QI (I ) =

Q( I) =G

Z1(I)=

CONTIN

GO TO

CONTIN

JCNT=K

DIST(I

P = 0

DO 19

P=P+1

IF(X(I

IF(X( I

TEMP2(

CONTIN

Z2 = DIS

Z1(I)=

I F ( X ( I

IFtXU

QI ( I ) =

CONTIN

IF (XXX

Q( I) =Q

IF (TEN

CONTIN

CONTIN

IFtXU

= A( I ,J)-26.0

UE

1 1=1,12

0

.0

0.0

I) = AU, 1)

T-l

, 1 J .LT.O. ) GO TO 3001

EG.O) GO TO 699

700

GASTAL REGION SUBPROGRAM IS FOR THE CASE WHEN

EA SURFACE TEMP. IS REPORTED DUE TO SHALLOW

)=ZZZ*X( 1,1)

24

CNT( I)

}=ZI/KCNT( I )

J=l, JCNT

ZZZ

Zl (I )+Z2

I)=TEMP2( I )-XXX

(RHO*CP*DIST ( I ) )*(X( I,1)-XXX*P)

I ) .LT.O. ) GO TO 3001

(IJ+QKI)

P2(I ).LT.TTTT) GO TO 3001

UE

3001

S THE MAIN ANALYSIS PROGRAM FOR OCEAN DEPTHS

R THAN 30 METERS.

UE

K=l , MA

,KJ .LE.O.) GO TO 3001

,K + 1 ).GT.X( I,K) )DIFF( I )=X( I,K+1)-X(I ,K)

,K+1J .GT.X( I ,K))GO TO 1090

)=X( I, K)-X(I ,K+1)

UE

)=ZZZ*DIFF(I)

4 3

T(I) .EO.O) GO TO 703

44

UE

ZI*X(I,K)

(D + QHI J

Zl( I ) + ZI

UE

13

UE

CNT( 1)

)=ZI/KCNT(I)

L=l, JCNT

,K+1J.GT.X(I ,K) ) TEMP2U )=TEMP2( I )+XXX

,K+1).GT.X(I,K) ) GO TO 1091

I )=TEMP2( I J-XXX

UE

T( I)

ZKI )+Z2

,K + 1 ).GT.X( I ,KJ JQI { I )=DIST(I }*(X(I tK)+XXX*P)

,K+1).GT.X(I,K) )G0 TO 1092

(RHO-CP-DI ST (I ) )*(X( I ,K)-XXX*P)

UE

*P.GT.DIFF(I ) ) GO TO 13

( D+OI ( I )

P2( I ).LT.TTTT) GO TO 3001

UE

UE

,NA+1) .GT.O. ) GO TO 701

95

701

24
3001

1100
900

901

GO TO
KCNT( I
ZI=15.

JCNT=K

DISK I

P=0

DO 24

P = P+1

TEMP2(

Z2=DIS

Zl( I )=

QI (I ) =

IF(QI (

Q( I )=Q

.IF (TEM

CONTIM

CO NT IN

TT1 = 0

CLRY=1

Zlll=2

MM=MM+

IF(MOD

WRITE(

WRITE (

WR I T E (

CO NT IN

FORMAT

WRITEt

WRITEt

WRITE(

FORMAT

IF( ICN

MAX VA

READ(9

GO TO

CONTIN

STOP

END

3001

)=ZZZ*X( I ,NA+1)

24

CNT( I)

)=ZI/KCNT( IJ

J=l , JCNT

I )=TEMP2( I J-XXX

T(I)

Zl( I )+Z2

(RHC*CP*DIST ( I ) )#(X( I ,NA+1)-XXX*P)

I) .LT.O. ) GO TO 3001

( IJ+QI (I )

P2(I ).LT.TTTT) GO TO 3001

UE

UE

(MM, 10

6,900)

6,900)

6,900)

UE

(IX, 12

3, 901)

3,901)

3, 901)

( IX, 12

T.EQ.6

LUE FO

9,200)

203

UE

) .NE.OJ GO TO 1100
LATf XltLONGfI Y,TT1, (A(I,1),I=1,12)
LAT,X1,L0NG,IY,CLRY,(Q( I) , 1 = 1, 12)
L AT, XI, LONG, I Y.Z111 ,(Z1(I),I=1,12)

i> LtVtLb

IY,LVL,(TEMP( I,LVL+1) ,1=1,12)

C
C

THIS JCL
COMPUTED

IS FOR
VALUES

READING A
ONTO DATA

7 TRACK
CELL

TAPE, AND DUMPING

//G0.FT04F001 DD UN IT = 2400-1 , LA B EL= ( 1 ,NL ) ,D I SP= ( OLD, KEE P)
// V0L = SEP.=HEFATL,DCB=(DEN = 1 , R EC FM = F , BLKS I ZE = 80 , T RTCH= ET )
//G0.FT03F001 DD DSN AME= SI 149. TQZ , UNI T=232 1 ,

// VOL=SER=CEL002,DISP=(NEW,KEEP),SPACE= ( CYL , ( 40, 1 ) , RL SE ) ,
// LABEL=EXPDT=722 86,DCB=( RECFM=FB, BLKSI ZE=2 000 , LR ECL=CO )

96

//HEFD1149 J03 ( 1 149 , 052 1FT , OP12 ) , ' HEFF ERNAN. . BOX .H» ,T I ME = 6
// EXEC FORTCLG
//FORT.SYSIN DD *

C MEAN OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL COMPUTATIONS FOR ATLANTIC

C USING MEAN TE^dpra TURE DATA COMPUTED BY M.K.ROBINSON

C REGION BY ONE DEGREE SQUARES

C PURPOSE:

C l.TO COMPUTE (DL — ),THE CHANGE IN SEA SURFACE

C TEMP DUE TO PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM.

C ARGUMENTS:

C Q-CUMULATIVE HEAT CAL/CM2

C ZI-SEQUENTIAL 30.48 METER DEPTH INTERVAL

C HR()-NUM3ER OF CALORIES IN HUNDRE DS, TROP I C AL

C STORM OBTAINED FROM ThE COLUMN OF WATER

C FDR A FIXED PERIOD ( 6 , 12 ,24, 36 HRS.).

C 1300 CAL/CM2 PER FOUR HOUR PERIOD TAKEN

C AS CONSTANT.

C TEMP2-CALCULATED SEA SFC TEMP AFTER PASSAGE

C OF TROPICAL STORM.

C DIST-VARI ABLE NUMBER OF INCREMENTS BETWEEN 30

C METER LEVELS.

C XXX-INCREMENTAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

C ZZZ-CONSTANT MULTIPLE FOR INCREASING NUMBER

C OF INCREMENTS.

C Z2-INCREMENTAL DEPTH CHANGE

DIMENSION A( 12,6) , TEMP (12,6) ,TEMP2( 12) ,Q( 12) ,KCNT(12) ,
1DISTQ2) ,QI(12 ),DIFF( 12) ,Z1( 12 J ,X( 12,6)
DIMENSION DLOS (12) , DL12Q2), DL24112) ,DL36( 12)
INTEGER DT06,DT12,DT24 ,DT36,P
MM = 0

TTTT=26.D
XXX=.l
ZZZ=10.
HR06=10. 30
HR12=20.C0
HR24=40.00
HR36=6D. 33
CALL REREAD

204 READ(4,200, END=2 ) LAT, XI , LONG, I Y, L VL , ( TEMP ( I , LVL+ 1 ) ,
11=1,12)

2 00 F0RMAT(I2,A1,I4,A1, I 2 , 12F4. 1 , 22X)
203 SVLONG=LCNG
229 DO 201 J=2,6
C MAX VALUE FOR PACIFIC IS 5 LEVELS

RE AD (4, 2001) L ATI , X2 , LONG 1, IY1,LVL1
2001 FCRMATl I 2 , Al , I 4, Al , I 2 , 70X)

IF(LDNGl.NE.SVLONG) GO TO 205

RE AD (99, 20 3) LAT , XI ,LONG , I Y , LVL , ( T EMP( I t LV L+ 1 ) , I = 1 , 12 )
201 CONTINUE

ICNT=J

GO TO 236

205 ICNT=J-1

206 DO 1 J=l, ICNT
DO 1 1=1,12

A( I, J)=(TEMP(I , J)-3 2.0)*(5./9.)
X( I , J)=A( I,J)-26.0
1 CONTINUE

DO 3001 1=1,12
CP=1.0
RH0=1.0
Q( I)=0.0
ZKI )=0.0
DL06( I )=0.
DL12( I )=0.
DL24(I ) =0.

97

DL36(I )=0.
TEMP2( I)=A( 1,1
P = 0

NA=ICNT-1
IFtX ( 1,1 ) .LE.O
IF(NA.EQ.O) GO
GO TO 700

) GO TO
TO 699

3001

C THIS COASTAL REGION SUBPROGRAM IS FOR THE CASE WHEN
C ONLY SEA SURFACE TEMP. IS REPORTED DUE TO SHALLOW
C WATER.

699 KCNT (I )=ZZZ*X( 1,1)

IFlKCNTt IJ.LT. 1) KCNT (I J =1
ZI=15.24
JCNT=KCNT( I )
DIST(I) =ZI/KCNT( I)
DO 25 J=1,JCNT
Z2=ZI/ZZZ
Zl( I)=Z1(I )+Z2
P=P + 1

TEMP2(I )=TEMP2 ( IJ-XXX
QI (I )={RH0*CP*Z1(I ) )«XXX
Q(I)=Q{ I )+OI(I i
IF1TEMP2U ) .LT.TTTT) GOTO
IF(Q{ I ).LE.HR06) DL06(I)=(A[
IF(Q( I) .LE.HR12)
IF(0(I ) .LE.HR24)
IF(0( I J.LE.HR36)
IF(Q(I ) .GT.HR3 6)
25 CONTINUE
GO TO 3001

DL12( I ) = (A( I
D 1.24 (I i = ( A ( I
DL36( I )=(A( I
GO TO 3001

3 001

I ,1)-TEMP2(I ) )*10.

U-TEMP2C I ) ) *10.

1)-TEMP2(I ) )*10.

1)-TEMP2(I ) )*10.

C THIS IS THE MAIN ANALYSIS

C GREATER THAN 30 METERS.

PROGRAM FOR OCEA.N DEPTHS

700 CONTINUE

DO 13 K=1,NA

IF(X( I ,K} .LE.O.) GO TO 3001

DIFFt I )=X( I,K)-X( I,K + 1)

KCNT (I J=ZZZ-DIFF(I )

ZI=30.43

IF ( KCNT ( I) .EQ.O) GO TO 703

GO TO 44

SUBROUTINE FOR CASE WHEN ISOTHERMAL CONDITIONS EXIST

DL36 (
GO TO

703 Zl( I)=Z1 ( IJ+ZI
QI (I)=Z1 ( I )*XXX
Q( I)=Q( I )+QI (I )
IF(Q( n .LE.HR06)
IF(Q(I ) .LE.HR12)
IF(Q( I J .LE.HR24J
IFCQf I ) .LE.HR36)
IFCQl I) .GT.HR36)
GO TO 13
44 CONTINUE

JCNT=KCNT( I )

DIST (I )=ZI/KCMT(

P = 0

DO 19 L=1,JCNT

P=P + 1

TEMP2U ) =TEMP2l I )

Z2=DIST( I)

Zl( I)=Z1 ( I)+Z2

QI (I ) = (RH0*CP*Z1 ID)

DL06( I ) = ( A( I

DL12(I) =(A(I

DL24( I ) = ( A( I

I ) = ( A ( I

3001

1)-TEMP2( I ) )*10.
1)-TEMP2( I ) )*10.
1)-TEMP2(I ) )*10,
1 )-TEMP2( I ) )*10.

I)

XXX

=XXX

98

IF(XXX*P.GT.DIFF(I ) ) GO TO 13

Q(I)=Q(I)+QI(I)

IF(TEMP2(I ). LT.TTTT) GO TO 3001
C DL VALUE IS MULTIPLE OF 10 TO FACILATATE PLOT PROGRAM

IF(Q(I ) .LE.HP06) DL06( I }=( A( I , 1 )-TEMP2( I ) ) *10.

IF(Q( I ) . LE.HR12) D L12 ( I ) = < A ( I , 1 ) -T EMP2 ( I ) ) *10 .

IF(Q( I ) .LE.HR2 4) DL24 ( I ) = ( A ( I , 1 ) -TEMP2( I ) ) *10.

IF(Q(I ). LE.HR36) DL36 { I ) = ( A { 1 , 1 )-T EMP2 ( I ) ) *ld .

IF(Q( I ) .GT.hR36) GO TO 3001
19 CONTINUE
13 CONTINUE

IF(X( 1 ,NA+1) .3T.0. ) GO TO 701

GO TO 3001
701 KCNTd )=ZZZ*X( I,NA+1)

ZI=15.24

IF(KCNT{ I) .LT.l) KCNT(I)=1

JCNT=KCNT{ I)

DIST(I)=ZI/KCNT( I)

P=0

DO 24 J=1,JCNT

P=P+1

TEMP2U ) =TEMP2 ( I )-XXX

Z2 = DIST( I)

Z1U) = Z1(I )+Z2

QI (I )={RH0*CP*Z1 ( I) )*XXX

0( I)=Q( D+QI (I )

IF1TEMP2 ( I ). LT.TTTT) GO TO 3001

IF(C( I ) .LE.HR06) D L06 ( I ) = ( A ( I , 1 ) -T EMP2 ( I ) ) *10 .

IF{Q( I ).LE.HR12) DL 12 ( I ) = { A( I , 1 ) -TEMP2 ( I ) ) -10.

IF (Q{ I ) . LE.HR2 4) DL24( I)=( A( I,1)-TEMP2( I ) )*10.

IF(Q{ I ) .LE.HR36) DL36 ( I ) = ( A( I , 1 ) -T EMP2 ( I ) ) *10 .

IF(Q( I ) .GT .HR36) GO TO 3001
24 CONTINUE
3001 CONTINUE

DT06=0

DT12=1

DT24=2

DT36=3
90 0 FORM AT ( 1X,I2,A1 , I4.A1, I2f12F5.1)
1100 CONT INUE

WRITE (3, 901 ) L AT, XI, LONG t IY,DT06, ( DL06( I ) , 1 = 1 , 12)

WRITE (3,901) LAT,X1 , LONG , I Y , DTI 2 , ( DL12 ( I ) , 1 = 1 , 12 )

WRITE (3,901) LAT,X1,L0NG,IY,DT24,(DL24( I ) ,1=1,12)

WRITE (3, 901) LAT,X1 ,LONG, IY,DT36, (DL36( I ), 1 = 1, 12)
901 F0RMAT(I2,A1,I4,A1 ,I2,12F5.1,10X)

IF( ICNT .EQ.6) GO TO 204
C MAX VALUE FOR PACIFIC IS 5 LEVELS

READ (99, 200) LAT, XI ,LONG , I Y , L VL , ( TEMP( I , LVL+1 ) , I =1 , 12 )

GO TO 203
2 CONTINUE

STOP

END

C THIS JCL IS F3R READING A 7 TRACK TAPE, AND DUMPING

C COMPUTED VALUES ONTO DATA CELL

//GO.FT04F001 DD UN I T =2400-1 , LABEL= ( 1 , ML ) , DI S P= ( OL D, KE EP ) ,

// V0L=SER=HEFATL,DCB=(DEN=1,RECFM=F,BLKSIZE=80,TRTCH=ET)

//GO.FT03F001 DD CSN AM E=S 1149 . DLT , UN IT =2321 ,

// VOL =SER=CEL 002, DI SP=( NEW, KEEP) , SPACE =( CYL ,( 40 , 1 ) ,PLSE) ,

// LABEL=EXPDT=7 22 86, DCB= ( RECFM=FB, BLKS I ZE=2000, LRECL=80)

99

//HEF11149 JOB ( 1149, 0521FT,OP12) ,'HEFFERNAN. .BOX. H' ,TIME=6
// EXEC FORTCLG
//FORT.SYSIN DD *

C MEAN OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL COMPUTATIONS FOR PACIFIC

C USING MEAN TEMPERATURE DATA COMPUTED BY M.K.ROBINSON

C REGION BY ONE DEGREE SQUARES

£ *i # & * >■: # # A £ :£ ;}e # £ # jfc ;$; £ * fc £ :£ ;k # ***&#*^^ iz^^^^^X^^*****^**^*******^**

C PURPO S E I

C l.TO COMPUTE (Zl — ),THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED

C LAYER EFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM PASSAGE.

C STORM IN AREA F0R6 t 12 , 24 , 36HR S OR SEQUENCE

C OF FOUR STORMS CROSSING AREA.

C ARGUMENTS:

C Q-CUMULATIVE HEAT CAL/CM2

C ZI-SEQUENTIAL 30.48 METER DEPTH INTERVAL

C HRO-NUMBER OF CALORIES IN HUNDRE DS,TROP ICAL

C STORM OBTAINED FROM ThE COLUMN OF WATER

C FOR A FIXED P ER IC D( 6 , 12 , 24, 36 HRS.).

C 1000 CAL/CM2 PER FOUR HOUR PERIOD TAKEN

C AS CONSTANT.

C TEMP2-CALCULATED SEA SFC TEMP AFTER PASSAGE

C OF TROPICAL STORM.

C DIST-VARI ABLE NUMBER OF INCREMENTS BETWEEN 30

C METER LEVELS.

C XXX-INCREMENTAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

C ZZZ-CONSTAMT MULTIPLE FOR INCREASING NUMBER

C OF INCREMENTS.

C Z2-INCREMENTAL DEPTH CHANGE

DIMENSION A(12,6),TEMP( 12, 6 ) , TEMP 2 ( 12 ) ,Q( 12) , KCNT( 12) ,
1DISTC12) tQIClZ) t 0lFF(12)iZl(l2)tXI12ff6]

DIMENSION Z106(12) , Z112(12) ,Z124( 12) ,Z136( 12)

INTEGER Z206,Z212, Z224,Z23o,P

MM=0

TTTT=26.0

XXX=.l

ZZZ=10.

HR06=10.00

HR12=20.00

HR24=40.00

HR36=60.00

CALL REREAD

204 READ(4,200, END=2 ) L AT ,X1 ,LONG, I Y , LVL , (TEMP ( I , LVL+ 1 ) ,
11=1, 12)

200 FORMAT ( I 2 , Al , I 4, Al , 12 , 12F4 . 1 , 78X )
203 SVLONG=LCNG

229 DO 201 J=2, 5
C MAX VALUE FOR PACIFIC IS 5 LEVELS

RE AD (4, 2 001) LAT1 , X2 , L0NG1 , I Yl ,LVL1
2001 FORM AT ( I 2, A 1,1 4, A 1,1 2, 126X)

IF(LONGl.NE.SVLCNG) GO TO 205

READ (99, 200) LAT,X1 ,LONG , I Y , L VL , (TEMP (I , LVL + 1 ) , I =1 , 12 )

201 CONTINUE
ICNT=J

GO TO 206

205 ICNT=J-1

206 DO 1 J=1,ICNT
DO 1 1=1,12

A(I,J)=(TEMP(I,J)-3 2.0)*(5./9.)
X( I , J)=A(I ,J)-26.0

1 CONTINUE

DO 3001 1=1,12
CP=1.0
RHO=1.0
Q( I)=0.0
ZKI )=0.0
Z106( I )=0.
Z112( I )=0.
Z124( I )=0.

100

Z1361 I )=0.
TEMP2(I)=A(I,1)

P = 0

NA=ICNT-1

IF(X(I tD.LF.O.) GO TO 3001

IF(NA.EQ.O) G3 TO 699
GO TO 700

C THIS COASTAL REGION SUBPROGRAM IS FOR THE CASE WHEN
C ONLY SEA SURFACE TEMP, IS REPORTED DUE TO SHALLOW
C WATER.

699 KCNT (I)=ZZZ*X< 1,1)

IF(KCNTd).LT.l) KCNT(IJ=1
ZI=15.24

JCNT = KCNT( I )
DIST( I) =ZI/KCNT( I)
DO 25 J=1,JCNT
Z2=ZI/ZZZ
Zl( I)=Z1(I )+Z2
P=P + 1

TEMP2U ) =TEMP2 (I J-XXX
QI (I )=(RHG*CP*Z1(I ) )*XXX
Q(I)=Q( IJ+QKI )

IFCTEMP2U J .LT.TTTT) GO TO 3001
IF(Q(I) .LE.HR06) Zl 06 ( I ) =Z 1 ( I )
IF(Q( I) .LE.HR12) Zl 12 ( I J = Z 1( I J
IF(Q( I) .LE.HR24) Zl 24 ( I ) =Z1 ( I )
IF(Q(I) .LE.HR36) Z 136 ( I ) = Z 1 ( I J
IF(Q( I) .GT.HR36J GO TO 3001
25 CONTINUE
GO TO 3001

C THIS IS THE MAIN ANALYSIS PROGRAM FOR OCEAN DEPTHS

C GREATER THAN 30 METERS.

700 CONTINUE

DO 13 K=1,MA

IF{X(I .KJ.LE.D. ) GO TO 3001

DIFF( I) = X( I,K)-X(I ,K+1)

KCNTC I) = ZZZ*DIFF( I )

ZI=30.48

IF(KCNT( I) .EQ.O) GO TO 703

GO TO 44

C SUBROUTINE FOR CASE WHEN ISOTHERMAL CONDITIONS EXIST

703 Zl( I )=Z1( I )+ZI
QI (I)=Z1 (I )*XXX
Q(I)=Q( I )+QI(I )

IF(Q( I) .LE.HR06) Z 1 06 { I ) =Z 1 ( I )
IF(Q( I) .LE.HR12) Zl 12 ( I ) = Z 1 ( I )
IF(Q(I) .LE.HR24) Z124(I)=Z1(I)
IF(Q( I ) .LE.HR36) Z 136 { I ) = Z 1( I )
IF(Q(I) .GT.HR36) GO TO 3001
GO TO 13
44 CONTINUE

JCNT=KCNT(I)

DISTII )=ZI/KCNT( I )

P = 0

DO 19 L=1,JCNT

P = P + 1

TEMP2( I )=TEMP2 ( I J-XXX

Z2 = DIST( I)

Zlt I )=Z1(I )+Z2

QI (I )=(RH0*CP*Z1 (I ) )*XXX

IF(XXX*P.GT.DIFF(I ) ) GO TO 13

Q{ I J=Q( I )+QI(I )

101

19
13

701

24

3001

1100

904

901

IFCT

IF(Q
IFO

IF(Q

IF(Q

IF(Q

CONT

CONT

IF(X

GO T

KCNT

ZI = 1

IF(K

JCNT

DIST

P = 0

DO 2

P = P +

TEMP

Z2 = D

ZKI

QUI

Q(I)

IFCT

IF(Q

IF(Q

IFIQ

IF(0

IF(Q

CONT

CONT

Z206

Z212

Z224

Z236

CONT

WRIT

WRIT

WRIT

WRIT

FORM

FORM

IF ( I

MAX

READ

GO T

CONT

STOP

END

EMP2
(I) .
(I) .
( IJ .
II) .
1 I) .
INUE
INUE
( I»N
0 30
( I) =
5.24
CNT(
= KCN
(I) =

(I ) .LT.TTTT) GO TO 3001
LE.HR06) Z106 (I )=Z1 ( I )
LE.HR12) Z112( I )=Z1( I)
LE.HR2 4) Z124(I)=Z1( I )
LE.HR36) Z136 (I )=Z1(IJ
GT.HR36) GO TO 3001

A+l) .GT.O. ) GO TO 701

01

ZZZ*X( I tNA+1)

D.LT.l) KCNT(I)=1
T( I )
ZI/KCMT( I)

J=l, J

4

1

2( I)

IST(

)=Z1

) = (R

= Q( I

EMP2

(I).

( I) .

( I ) .

(I) .

II) .

INUE

INUE

=0

= 1

= 2

=3

INUE

E(3t

E(3,

E( 3,

E(3,

AT( I

AT( 1

CNT.

VALU

(99,

0 20

INUE

= TE

I)

(I)

HO*
)+Q
(I )
LE.
LE.
LE.
LE.
GT.

CNT

MP2( I J-XXX

+ 12

CP*Zld ) )*XXX

Id)

.LT.
HR06
HR12
HR24
HR36
HR3 6

TTTTJ GO TO 3001
) Z106U )=Z1( I)
Z112( I ) = Z1( I)
Z124{I)=Z1(I)
Z136(I)=Z1( I)
GO TO 3001

904)

904)

904)

904)

2,A1

X,I

EQ.5)

E FOR

20 0)

3

i

2,

LAT,X1,L0NG,IY,Z2 0 6,( Z106(I),I=1»12)
LAT,X1,L0NG,IY,Z212,(Z112( I ), 1 = 1, 12)
L AT, XI, LONG, I Y,Z224, ( Z124 ( I ) , I =1 , 12 )
LAT,X1,L0NG,IY,Z236, ( Z1361 I ) , 1= 1 , 12 )
14, Al ,I2,12F5.1;10X)
Al, 14, Al, I2,12Fb.l)

GO TO 204

PACIFIC IS 5 LEVELS
L AT, XI, LONG, I Y,LVL, (TEMP{ I ,LVL+1) ,1 =1,12)

C
C

THIS JCL

COMPUTED

IS FOR

VALUES

READING A
ONTO DATA

7 TRACK
CELL

TAPE, AND DUMPING

//GO.FT04F001 DD UN IT=2400- 1 , LAB EL= ( 1 , NL ) , D I SP= ( OL D , KE EP )
// V0L = SER=HEFPAC,CCB=(DE;M = 1 , RECFM = F , BLKS I ZE=1 36 ,TRTCH= ET )
//GO.FT03FC01 DD DSN AME = P 1 149. MXL, UNI T = 232 1 ,

// VOL=SER=CEL002,DISP=(NEW,KEEP),SPACE=(CYL,(40,1) ,RLSE) ,
// LABEL=EXPDT=722 86,DCB=(RECFM=FB,BLKSIZE=20 0 0,LRECL=8 0)

102

LIST OF REFERENCES

1. Brand, S., "Geographic and Monthly Variation of Rapid Intensifica-

tion and Low-Latitude Weakening of Tropical Cyclones of the
Western North Pacific", Environmental Prediction Research
Facility Report 5-72, May 1972.

2. Brand, S. and J.W. Blelloch, "Changes in the Characteristics of

Typhoons Crossing the Philippines", Environmental Prediction
Research Facility Report 6-72, May 1972.

3. Byers, H. R. , General Meterorology , Mc Graw - Hill, 1959, 540pp.

4. Cry, G. W., "Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean",

United States Weather Bureau Report No. 55, 1965.

5. Gentry, R. C. , Hurricanes — one of the Major Features of Air-Sea

Interaction in the Caribbean Sea, paper presented at Symposium
of Investigations and Resources of the Caribbean Sea and Ad-
jacent Regions, Willemstad, Curacao, N.A., 18-23 November 1968.

6. Gray, W.M., Global View of the Origin of Tropical Distrubances

and Storms , Department of Atmospheric Science Paper No. 114,
Colorado State University, p. 1-14, 1967.

7. Hansen, H.L., The Climatology and Nature of Tropical Cyclones of

the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Masters Thesis, Naval Post-
graduate School, Monterey, Calif., 1972.

8. Hazelworth, J.B., "Water Temperature Variations Resulting From

Hurricanes," J. Geophys . Res., v. 73, no. 16, pp. 5105-5123,
1968.

9. Jensen, J. J., Calculated and Observed Changes in Sea Surface

Temperature Associated with Hurricane Passage., Master's
Thesis, United States Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,
Calif., 1970.

10. Landis, R.C., and Leipper, D.F., "Effects of Hurricane Betsy Upon

Atlantic Ocean Temperature, Based on Radio-transmitted Data.",
J. Applied Meteorol., V. 7, p. 554-562, 1968

11. Leipper, D.F., "Observed Ocean Conditions and Hurricane Hilda,"

Jour. Atmos. Sci., Vol. 24, March 1967, pp. 182-196.

12. Leipper, D.F., and J. Jensen, "Changes in Energy Input from the

Sea into Hurricanes," Bulletin American Meteorological Society,
Vol. 52, no. 9, September 1971, p. 928.

103

13. Leipper, D.F., and D. Volgenau, "Hurricane Heat Potential of the

Gulf of Mexico", Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 2, No. 3,
July 1972, pp. 218-224.

14. Liechty, K.R., Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones in the

Western North Pacific Ocean During 1960-1969, Master's Thesis,
Naval Pastgraduate School, Monterey, Calif., 1972

15. Perlroth, I., "Effects of Oceanographic Media On Equatorial

Atlantic Hurricanes," Tellus, Vol. 21, 1969, p. 230-244.

16. Volgenau, D. , Hurricane Heat Potential of the Gulf of Mexico,

Master's Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif.,
1970, 58 pp.

17. Robinson, M.K. and Bauer, R.A., Atlas of Monthly Mean Mean Sea

Surface and Subsurface Temperature and Depth of the Top of the
Thermocline- North Pacific Ocean, Fleet Numerical Weather
Central, Monterey, Calif. Interim Report, May 1971.

18. Whitaker, W.D., Quantitative Determination of Heat Transfer From

Sea to Air during Passage of Hurricane Betsy, Master's Thesis,
Texas A&M University, 1967, 65 pp.

104

INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST

No. Copies

1. Defense Documentation Center 2
Cameron Station

Alexandria, Virginia 22314

2. Library, Code 0212 2
Naval Postgraduate School

Monterey, California 93940

3. Oceanographer of the Navy 1
The Madison Building

732 N. Washington Street
Alexandria, Virginia 22314

4. Dr. D. F. Leipper, Code 58Lr 1
Department of Oceanography

Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 93940

5. Margaret K. Robinson 1
Scripps Institution of Oceanography

University of California
La Jo 11a, California 92037

6. Dr. N. E. J. Boston, Code 58Bb 1
Department of Oceanography

Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 93940

7. Chairman, Department of Oceanography 3
Naval Postgraduate School

Monterey, California 93940

8. Chairman, Department of Meteorology 1
Naval Postgraduate School

Monterey, California 93940

9. Commanding Officer 1
Fleet Numerical Weather Central

Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 93940

10. Graduate Department 1

Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Box 109
LaJolla, California 92037

105

11. Dr. H. Burr Steinbach
Dean of Graudate Studies

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543

12. Associate Professor K. Oyama
Department of Meteorology and Oceanography
New York University

University Heights
Bronx, New York 10453

13. Dr. Richard A. Geyer

Head, Department of Oceanography
Texas A&M University
College Station, Texas 77843

14. Dr. J. Namais

ESSA, Extended Forecast Division
National Meteorological Center
Washington, D. C. 20233

15. Dr. C. L. Jordan
Department of Meteorology
Florida State University
Tallahassee, Florida 32306

16. Mr. I. Perlroth

National Oceanographic Data Center
Washington, D. C. 20390

17. Dr. R. Cecil Gentry

National Hurricane Research Laboratory

Box 8265

Coral Gables, Florida 33124

18. Mr. Peter G. Black

National Hurricane Research Laboratory

Box 8265

Coral Gables, Florida 33124

19. Dr. Robert H. Simpson
National Hurricane Center
Box 8286

Coral Gables, Florida 33124

20. Commanding Officer

U. S. Fleet Weather Central
COMNAVMARIANAS, Box 12
FPO San Francisco 96630

106

21. Commanding Officer
Fleet Weather Facility
P. 0. Box 85

Naval Air Station
Jacksonville, Florida 32212

22. Mr. R. E. Stevenson
Scientific Liaison Office, ONR
University of California

San Diego, California 92037

23. Professor G. H. Jung, Code 58Jg
Department of Oceanography
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 93940

24. LCDR Jack J. Jensen, USN
3915 West Calumet Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53209

25. LCDR Richard F. Heffernan, USN
U. S. Naval Facility, Guam
FPO San Francisco, 96630

26. LCDR Douglas Volgenau, USN
4955 Shimerville Road
Clarence, New York 14031

27. Dr. N. A. Ostenso
Code 480D

Office of Naval Research
Arlington, Va. 22217

28. Professor William Gray
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Colorado State University

Fort Collins, Colorado 80521

29. Typhoon Research Laboratory
Meteorological Research Institute
Koenji-kita 4-35-8, Suginami-ku
Tokyo, Japan 166

30. Mr. Samson Brand

Environmental Prediction Research Facility
Monterey, California 93940

31. Of ficer-in-Charge

Environmental Prediction Research Facility
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 93940

107

Unclassi f ied

Security Classification

DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA -R&D

^Security c las si I ic ation of title, body of abstract and indexing annotation must be entered when the overall report is classified)

2a. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION

1 originating activity (Corporate author)

Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 93940

Unclassified

2b. GROUP

3 REPORT TITLE

Hurricane Heat Potential of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans

4 DESCRIPTIVE NOTES (Type of report and, inclusive dates)

Master's Thesis; (September 1972)

S AU THORIS) (First name, middle initial, last name)

Richard Francis Heffernan

6 REPOR T D A TE

September 1972

8a. CONTRACT OR GRANT NO.

6. PROJEC T NO.

TOTAL NO. OF PAGES

109

7b. NO. OF REFS

9«. ORIGINATOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S)

9b. OTHER REPORT NO(S) (Any other numbers that may be assigned
this report)

10 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited,

It. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

t2. SPONSORING Ml LI TAR Y ACTIVITY

Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California 9 3940

13. ABSTRAC T

Mean monthly ocean temperature data provided by Fleet Numerical Weather
Central were used as a basis for computation of quantity defined as hurricane
heat potential. Warm, deep centers with heat potential values in excess of
32,000 cal/cm existed east of the Philippine Islands during the months of July
through November. In the Western Atlantic warm, deep centers in excess of
24,000 cal/cm existed south of Cuba during the months of August through October.
Correlation studies were made between sea surface temperature and heat potential.
A weak correlation was found, leading to the conclusion that sea surface
temperature at least at times is a poor indicator of oceanic heat content.
Computations were made to determine the effect of average heat loss during a
severe tropical storm passage to the ocean thermal structure. Twenty- four hour
average losses would cause the sea surface temperature to drop as much as three
degrees celsius under certain initial conditions . The effects of heat loss on
convective layer depth ranged from less than fifteen meters to over ninety meters

DD

FORM 1^-70

I NOV 66 I *V / *J

S/N 0101 -807-681 1

(PAGE 1 )

108

Unclassi f ied

Security Classification

A-3140B

Unclassified

Security Classification

KEY WO R D»

Hurricane

Typhoon

Heat Content

Sea Surface Temperatures

Air-sea Interaction

Hurricane Heat Potential

DD

FORM
i nov e

.1473 <BACK)

109

Unclassi f ied

S/N 0101-807-6821

Security Classification

A- 31 409

-T

7 ■" "

Thesis 136172

H4215 Heffernan

C>1 Hurricane heat poten-

tial of the North Atlan-
ti c and North Pacific
Oceans .

■ 4 fcUG73

2 l 6 u n

The s i j

H4215

c.1

Heffernan

Hurrican heat poten-

136172

tial of the North Atlan-
tic and North Pacific
Oceans .

thesH4215

Hurricane heat potential of the North At

Mi; nl i

3 2768 002 08691 0

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