HARVARD UNIVERSITY Ernst Mayr Library of the Museum of Comparative Zoology MCZ UBR/VRy MAY 27 m harvard UNIVERSITY — 233 The productivity boom after the Civil War, for instance, appears to have had its genesis in a set of technological improvements that increased the flexibility of production and reduced transportation costs, which allowed firms to take advantage of economies of scale in production and distribution. The widespread introduction of steam engines and machinery powered by coal enabled firms to move away from sources of water power and closer to areas where inputs of labor and raw materials were more readily available. The expansion of railroad transportation also helped raise productivity growth in the second half of the nineteenth century. Improved methods of steel production-notably, the Bessemer process and, later, Siemens's open hearth method-enabled railroads to lay steel track that was longer-lasting than iron track. The growth of telegraphy enabled railroad companies to coordinate the movement of trains over a wider area. Although the magnitude of the railroad’s contribution to productivity growth during this period is the subject of considerable debate (David 1969, Fishlow 2000, Fogel 1979), the expansion of the railroads clearly drove transportation costs sharply lower and resulted in significant increases in the geographic size of product markets. In 1830, the transportation of goods from New York to Chicago occurred mainly by canal and required three weeks even during the warmer months of the year. By 1870 the same goods could be transported between these two cities in three days by railroad at any time of the year (Paullin 1932). Subsequently, freight rates fell from 2.25 cents per ton-mile in 1860 to less than 1 cent per ton-mile by 1 890. As a result, the quantity of goods transported by rail increased sharply, from about 12 billion ton-miles in 1870 to 80 billion ton-miles in 1890 (Fishlow 1966). The advances in transportation were complemented by improved communications, largely as a result of the expansion of the telegraph. Initially, sending a telegram was relatively expensive, with rates between New York and San Francisco averaging $7.45 for ten words or fewer in the late 1860s. By the late 1880s, rates for the same message had fallen to as little as $1.00. As a result, the number of telegraph messages handled Washington Academy of Sciences 5 by Western Union rose from fewer than 6 million in 1867 to nearly 56 million in 1890 (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series R48 and R74). Changes in Business Organization Before the Civil War, most businesses were either sole proprietorships or partnerships serving local markets. As the spread of railroads lowered transportation costs and increased the size and number of potential markets, the greater availability of steam power enabled manufacturers to set up factories to take advantage of economies of scale in production. As a result, the size of firms rose substantially in many industries. In the cotton industry, for example, the median firm size (measured as the annual value of gross production in 1860 dollars) rose from $31,000 in 1850 to nearly $100,000 in 1870; similarly, in the iron industry, the median firm size rose from $24,000 in 1850 to more than $200,000 in 1870 (Atack 1986). With the telegraph making rapid communication over great distances more feasible, firms were able to monitor activities from a central administrative office. However, to make effective use of the opportunities presented by better communications, firms often set up hierarchical management systems to control the production process and to coordinate the flow of goods across the distribution system. The more informed decision making associated with this administrative structure enabled firms to match production to orders, shorten delivery times and reduce inventory holdings. Changes in Finance Before the Civil War, most non-financial business investment was financed internally with retained earnings, with capital provided by family or friends or through partnerships formed with other proprietors. The chief exceptions were the canals and railroads, which were issuing stocks and bonds in the 1850s (Chandler 1977). The main sources of funding in the decades after the Civil War were debt and preferred stock. (Railroad companies were an exception to this pattern - they sold sizable amounts of common stock to investors seeking large capital gains after the completion of new construction projects (Fishlow 2000).) Debt often took the form of secured loans, in large part because investors were concerned about the informational asymmetries they faced in evaluating the bankruptcy risk of Spring 2006 6 particular firms. Indeed, the total value of bank loans rose from less than $1 billion in 1870 to more than $4 billion in the early 1890s, during a period when the aggregate price level was falling (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series X581). Changes in the Labor Market During the productivity boom in the late nineteenth century, technological change had two disparate effects on the demand for labor. First, the shift in manufacturing production from artisanal shops in the mid- 1800s to factories after the Civil War and the subsequent rapid growth in the capital stock led to a substantial increase in the demand for unskilled labor (Engerman and Sokoloff 2000). Although this effect reduced the average skill level of the manufacturing workforce, the availability of a large pool of unskilled labor enabled firms to take advantage of the potential organizational efficiencies and economies of scale associated with the new technologies, thus raising productivity for the economy as a whole. Second, increases in firm size and the growth of businesses in the distribution sector increased the demand for workers who could perform clerical and managerial tasks. For example, the share of employed men who worked in white-collar occupations rose from less than 5 percent in 1850 to nearly 18 percent by 1900 (Margo 2000). Such workers tended to have more formal education than the average individual although the level of competency needed for these jobs required, at most, a high school education (Chandler 1977). The Post World War 1 Productivity Boom Diffusion of Technology In the second productivity boom in the years after World War I, the chief technological innovation was most likely the spread of electrification to the factory floor (David 1990, Mowery and Rosenberg 2000). For example, the amount of mechanical energy derived from electric motors rose from 475,000 horsepower in 1899 to nearly 34 million horsepower in 1929, and the fraction of overall factory horsepower produced with electricity rose from less than 5 percent to more than 80 percent over that period (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series P70). As a result, manufacturing plants could be organized in a way that maximized the efficient movement of materials, rather than the efficient transmission Washington Academy of Sciences 7 of power. In this regard, electric motors facilitated the spread of continuous processing techniques and assembly lines. By one estimate, productivity growth in the manufacturing sector as a whole increased about 5.5 percent per year between 1919 and 1929 (Kendrick 1961). Other technological innovations also contributed to productivity growth during this period. Notable among them were the telephone, the internal combustion engine, and a variety of technological advances in machine tools. In addition, the early 1900s were characterized by the first wave of office automation equipment, including the portable typewriter and adding and duplicating machines. These machines improved the efficiency of a wide range of management and accounting tasks. In real terms, business investment in office equipment increased from about $50 million (in 1929 dollars) in 1899 to nearly $500 million in 1929, with a particularly large jump evident in the 1920s (Cortada 1993). Changes in Business Organization The second major productivity boom, in the years after World War I, required changes in business organization that permitted firms to take advantage of advances in production processes in the early 1900s. A change in the optimal size of the firm occurred that involved both the economies of scale associated with the increasingly complex production techniques and also large organizations embracing economies of scope. The diffusion of the electric motor throughout the factory floor increased the use of continuous-process methods and the assembly line and, thus, accelerated the trend toward mass production. In addition, as early as the 1880s, manufacturers had begun to integrate forward into distribution; one noteworthy example was the meatpacking industry, in which firms purchased refrigerated rail cars that allowed the shipment of beef from centralized slaughterhouses to branch houses that served local markets. The advances in mass production techniques and the increasing complexity of many manufactured products led firms in other industries to integrate forward not only into distribution but also into retailing; this vertical integration reduced transactions costs even more and further increased the optimal size of firms. As a result, marketing, advertising, and accounting departments increased in size and importance within the typical corporation. Also, with their executives now more sensitive to market share and their cost advantage over their competitors, large corporations began to develop Spring 2006 8 applied research departments aimed at providing the firm with a technological edge. Changes in Finance Corporate finance in the years after World War I was characterized by an increase in the importance of equity markets. At the New York Stock Exchange alone, the volume of stock sales rose from 186 million shares in 1917 to more than 1 billion shares in 1929 (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series X531), the value of preferred and common stock issuance increased from $455 million to $6.8 billion over the same period (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series X5 14-5 15), and the number of individuals holding stock jumped from 500,000 in 1900 to 10 million by 1930 (Hawkins 1963). The public’s interest in common stock increased for several reasons. First, expanding middle and upper classes wanted to take part in the economic gains associated with the introduction of new technologies. Second, about the same time, the informational problems that had constrained interest in common stock through the early 1900s were declining. Starting in the late 1800s, there was a proliferation of newsletters that reported on developments in the railroad industry, and similar publications soon sprang up to provide information on other traded securities. These newsletters evolved into ratings agencies covering a wide range of individual corporations, with Moody’s issuing the first bond ratings in 1909. Third, more public companies recognized a need to address investors’ concerns about risk and began to issue regular audited financial statements (Miranti 2001). Fourth, the marketing of securities to the household sector became more aggressive in the 1920s, led by investment trusts which offered investors a means of diversifying individual portfolios-and retail brokerage firms. Changes in the Labor Force The productivity boom of the early twentieth century was accompanied by a significant rise in the demand for higher-skilled labor. The need for white-collar workers continued to increase with the further growth in corporate size and the new focus on activities not directly related to the manufacture of goods. The greater complexity of the newly installed capital equipment increased the demand for workers who could Washington Academy of Sciences 9 read manuals and blueprints, perform mathematical calculations, and had some basic knowledge of science (Goldin and Katz 1998). In response, enrollment rates in secondary schools increased sharply, and the high school graduation rate rose to more than 25 percent by the late 1920s (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series H599). Chandler (1977) also notes the inception of the modem business school during this period, with classes on commerce, accounting, marketing, law and finance. The Post World War II Productivity Boom Diffusion of Technology The productivity gains of the 1950s and 1960s had their roots in a wide range of technologies first developed during the 1930s (Field 2003, Kleinknecht 1987, Schmookler 1966, and Mensch 1979). Examples of important innovations during this decade include research advances in polymer chemistry that led to the invention of Plexiglas, Teflon and Nylon; significant advances in civil engineering; and the introduction of the DC-3 aircraft in 1936. Research aimed at enhancing U.S. military capabilities during World War II also led to new technologies that had important spillovers to commercial applications after the war (Mowery and Rosenberg 2000). For example, although the major research advances in synthetic polymerization chemistry (most notably, the introduction of catalytic cracking in the processing of crude oil) were made in the 1920s and 1930s, the synthetic rubber program launched during the war resulted in techniques that led to the mass production of the first synthetic polymer from petroleum-based feedstocks. Similarly, production of polyethylene, a petrochemical based plastic discovered in the 1930s, jumped in the 1940s because of its widespread use in military equipment. The military’s need for large stocks of penicillin led to a production process for it that turned out to have applicability to a wide range of pharmaceuticals, while wartime advances in microelectronics subsequently contributed significantly to the development of new commercial electronic products. Overall, between 1947 and 1970, production in the rubber and plastic products industry rose nearly 7 percent per year, and the output of the chemical products industry rose more than 8 percent per year (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Indexes of Industrial Production). In comparison, over the same period, production in the manufacturing sector as a whole rose about 4 percent per year. Spring 2006 10 Another notable contributor to productivity growth during this period is the invention of the transistor in 1947. Commercial applications of the transistor, initially in solid state consumer electronic products, were stimulated by improvements in the fabrication process (in 1954) and by the introduction of the integrated circuit (in 1958). With the rise in demand, semiconductor production jumped markedly, rising nearly 20 percent per year during the 1960s (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Indexes of Industrial Production). In transportation, the 1950s and 1960s saw major productivity improvements in all three major segments: air, rail and trucking. Contributing importantly to those productivity gains were the replacement of steam locomotives with diesel locomotives and innovations that increased the capacity of the rolling stock (Mansfield 1965). The use of the jet engine in commercial aircraft - most notably, the introduction of the Boeing 707 in 1958 - was important. Gordon (1992) estimates place the growth of productivity in the commercial airline industry at more than 7 percent per year during the 1960s, well above the rate of labor productivity growth for the economy as a whole. Finally, productivity gains in trucking - estimated by Gordon at about 3.5 percent per year in the 1950s and 1960s - were fueled importantly by substantial investment in road improvements, most notably the federally funded expansion of the U.S. highway system (Keeler and Ying, 1988). Changes in Business Organization During the third productivity boom, following World War II, firms responded to the myriad of new products by increasingly splitting their firm's activities into separate divisions, each with its own manufacturing and marketing departments. For domestic production, this multidivisional approach was well suited to the manufacturing of diverse product lines by a single company (Baskin and Miranti 1997). This structure also turned out to be an effective method of handling corporate operations in different geographic areas, as seen by the rise of multinational corporations during this period. To handle these long-distance operations more easily, corporations often set up foreign subsidiaries that could adapt quickly to changing circumstances in the host country's marketplace. Washington Academy of Sciences 11 Changes in Finance The third productivity boom, in the years after World War II, was accompanied by another rapid increase in bond and equity issuance with the ratio of external financing to overall capital spending rising from an average of around 30 percent in the late 1940s to more than 40 percent in the early 1970s (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Flow of Funds Accounts). Two specific developments in financial markets during this period bear mentioning. First, the late 1950s and 1960s saw the rise of the Eurodollar market - a market for U.S. dollar deposits and loans outside the United States that became a useful source of short-term financing - complementary to the commercial paper market - for large corporations seeking alternatives to more costly domestic commercial bank loans (Johnston 1982, Kindleberger 1993). Baskin and Miranti (1997) estimate that this market increased from about $9 billion in 1964 to $247 billion by 1976. Second, the 1950s and 1960s were characterized by a sharp rise in the importance of large institutional investors - especially pension funds - in the stock and bond markets. This rise, coupled with the growth of mutual funds and brokerage houses, enabled smaller investors (either explicitly or implicitly) to invest more easily in stocks and bonds and to diversify their portfolios. Changes in the Labor Force The productivity boom of the 1950s and 1960s showed a similar pattern. The new technologies and skilled labor again were complements in production, so that the availability of skilled labor in this episode helped to maintain the returns to technological innovation. As in the early 1900s, the greater cognitive skills possessed by more educated workers were especially effective in implementing the new technologies (Nelson, Peck and Kalachek 1967), and in this instance, the demand for workers in professional and technical occupations increased sharply, with especially rapid growth for engineers and technicians (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series D233-D682). With the occupations in highest demand now requiring a college education, the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds Spring 2006 12 enrolled in college rose from about 14 percent in 1950 to roughly 32 percent in 1970 (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997, Series H701). Lessons from the Past The Characteristics of a Sustained Productivity Boom Productivity booms seem to involve four key ingredients: • technological innovation; • the willingness and ability of owners and corporate managers to reengineer the internal organization of their firms to take maximum advantage of those innovations; • financial sector innovations tailored to the forms of business organization predominating at the time; and • a skilled and flexible workforce. There are undoubtedly many valuable lessons from these similarities, but we will touch on a few that seem particularly important. First, many of the technological innovations associated with past productivity booms were “general purpose technologies” with widespread applicability. Such technologies often operate through various channels - through improvements in energy, transportation or communications, for example - raising productivity not only in production but also in distribution and business practices. Second, in many cases - railroads and computers being notable examples - the productivity improvements were initially most pronounced in the production of the capital equipment embodying the new technologies. Third, the development of these new technologies often had important intersectoral linkages to other industries (Fishlow 2000; Mowery and Rosenberg 2000). In the nineteenth century, for example, the construction of railroads had backward linkages to the coal, iron and steel, and machinery industries and forward linkages to the distribution sector. Likewise, in the twentieth century, the innovations in electricity, chemistry and the development of the internal combustion engine led both to widespread productivity improvements in mature industries (like steel and railroads) and the creation of new industries (like plastics and commercial air transportation) (Meyer 2003). Washington Academy of Sciences 13 A fourth lesson from past productivity booms is that investors must be willing to hold securities if firms are to raise the capital they need to take advantage of the productivity potential of new technologies. Fifth, efforts by policymakers to provide broad access to education has also helped to stimulate economic growth by improving the ability of the workforce to adapt to technological change. Sixth, sound macroeconomic policies have also been essential in promoting long-run economic growth. Several empirical observations suggest such a link between the level of business fixed investment - and thus the diffusion of new technologies through renewal of the capital stock - and an economic environment characterized by sustainable economic growth and low inflation (Fischer 1993, Rudebusch and Wilcox 1994). The Role of the Public Sector Reconsidered The importance of general purpose technologies raises the question of whether governments should attempt to stimulate the development of these technologies. To be sure, government intervention has, at times, made valuable contributions to technological progress. First, state and federal governments have been an important source of funding for basic research. Second, the legal system provides incentives for innovation through the protection of intellectual property rights by allowing the inventors of new technologies to reap the benefits of their innovations, while, hopefully, encouraging the timely diffusion of new technologies (Engerman and Sokoloff 2000). Third, in some cases, government has supported certain new technologies more directly. In the 1850s and after the Civil War, for example, federal land grants and state and local aid were a source of financing for railway construction. Military support for chemical research that focused on developing new materials during World War II contributed to subsequent productivity gains in the private sector. After World War II, new trade agreements and efforts to revitalize Europe and Japan allowed American firms to make significant inroads into foreign markets. Also, the Federal government funded the building of the interstate highway system during the 1 950s and 1 960s. Without downplaying the role of government in encouraging invention, however, the prevailing view of economists is that the government can arguably contribute most effectively to technological change by promoting an economic, financial, and legal environment that is Spring 2006 14 conducive to innovation and to the diffusion of new technologies - and then allowing businesses the flexibility to reorganize their operations in ways that permit them to take maximum advantage of new technologies. It is often pointed out, for example, that even for the nineteenth-century railroads, external financing came mainly from private domestic or foreign sources; the proportion of government-funded investment by railroad companies was less than 10 percent after the Civil War (Fishlow 2000). At the same time, it is impossible to notice that each of the historical productivity booms followed the end of a major war. Those who regard this as largely correlation, rather than causation, often point out that it is difficult to see what activities of the government during the Civil War and World War I could have made a major contribution to the subsequent period of elevated productivity growth. Moreover, it is usually noted that the post- 1995 productivity boom did not follow the end of a war and that other major wars were not followed by productivity booms. We have already noted that we prefer to defer judgment on the last ten years for a while longer. Regarding the last point, we will only note that other past productivity booms followed major wars in which the United States emerged the clear victor. In addition, it is possible to point to certain factors present in a postwar economy and attributable to public sector activity (conduct of a war) that can make an important contribution to productivity growth. Among these are a pent-up demand for consumer products resulting from the reallocation of resources to wartime production (World War II); control over new resources and technologies acquired from vanquished nations (World War I); a breakdown of factors previously restraining growth (Civil War - see Olson 1982); war-related advances in applied technology (World War II); and a rise in capital turnover rates. Regarding this last point, capital turnover rates are important because so much of new technology is embodied in new equipment. Typically, during a war maintenance of equipment falls below pre-War schedules due to manpower shortages. By the end of an extended war, a significant part of the capital stock may be at, or nea r, the end of its useful life. The shift of resources away from war productions creates, therefore, an opportunity to invest in new capital that embodies the latest technology, thus providing the impetus for a rise in productivity growth. Of course, few would advocate a major war in order to benefit from a subsequent productivity boom. More relevant is the question of Washington Academy of Sciences 15 whether it is possible through peacetime policies to bring into play some of the factors present in a postwar economy. For some factors - pent-up demand, acquisition of new resources from conquered nations, and even the breakdown of restraining factors - the answer is probably no. But it may be possible for the public sector to set the stage for accelerated productivity growth during peacetime by increasing its support of applied technology research; reducing the risk borne by the private sector through, for example, caps on liability; and through fiscal policies, such as depreciation rates, that impact the capital turnover rate. We have for some time now existed in a world where rates of return are low by historical standards. In such a world, favorable tax treatment and enhanced public sector funding of applied research may be appropriate. Such policies, however, would have to be predicated on the availability of a set of technologies whose impact is broad enough to have a measurable effect at the macro-economic level. REFERENCES Atack, Jeremy. 1986. “Finn Size and Industrial Structure in the United States during the Nineteenth Century.” Journal of Economic History. June, 46:2, pp. 463 - 475. Balke, Nathan S. and Robert J. Gordon. 1989. “The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence.” Journal of Political Economy. February, 97:1, pp. 38 - 92. Bemanke, Ben. 2005 “Economic Opportunity.” Talk before the National Economists Club. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Various years. Flow of Funds Accounts. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Various years. Indexes of Industrial Production. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board. Chandler, Alfred D. 1977. The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. Cortada, James W. 1993. Before the Computer: IBM, NCR, Burroughs, & Remington Rand & the Industry They Created, 1865-1956. Princeton, NJ.: Princeton University Press. David, Paul A. 1969. “Transportation Economics and Economic Growth: Professor Fogel On and Off the Rails.” Economic History Review. December, 22:3, pp. 506 25. Spring 2006 16 David, Paul A. 1990. “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modem Productivity Paradox.” American Economic Review. May, 80:2, pp. 355 -61. Engerman, Stanley and Kenneth L. Sokoloff. 2000. “Technology and Industrialization 1790-1914,” in Cambridge Economic History of the United States, Volume 2. Stanley Engerman and Robert Gallman, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 367 - 401. Ferguson, Roger W. and William L. Wascher. 2004. “Lessons from the Past Productivity Booms.” Journal of Economic Perspectives. Spring, 18:2, pp. 3 - 28. Field, Alexander J. 2003. “The Most Technologically Progressive Decade of the Century.” American Economic Review. September, 93:4, pp. 1399 1413. Fischer, Stanley. 1993. “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth.” Journal of Monetary Economics. December, 32:3, pp. 485 - 512. Fishlow, Albert. 1966. “Productivity and Technological Change in the Railroad Sector, 1840-1910,” in Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800. Dorothy S. Brady, ed. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 583 - 646. Fishlow, Albert. 2000. “Internal Transportation in the Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Centuries,” in Cambridge Economic History of the United States, Volume 2. Stanley Engerman and Robert Gallman, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 543 - 642. Fogel, Robert W. 1979. “Notes on the Social Saving Controversy.” Journal of Economic History. March, 39:1, pp. 1 50. Gordon, Robert J. 1992. “Productivity in the Transportation Sector”, in Output Measurement in the Service Sectors. National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Income and Wealth. Zvi Griliches, ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 371 - 422. Gordon, Robert J. 2000. “Does the ‘New Economy’ Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?” Journal of Economic Perspectives. Fall, 14:4, pp. 49 - 74. Griliches, Zvi. 1988. “Productivity Puzzles and R&D: Another Nonexplanation.” Journal of Economic Perspectives. Fall, 2:4, pp. 9 - 21. Hawkins, David F. 1963. “The Development of Modem Financial Reporting Practices among American Manufacturing Companies.” Business Histoiy Review. Winter, 37:1, pp. 135 -68. Johnston, R. B. 1982. The Economics of the Euro-Market. New York: St. Martin's Press. Keeler, Theodore E. and John S. Ying. 1988. “Measuring the Benefits of a Large Public Investment: The Case of the U.S. Federal-Aid Highway System.” Journal of Public Economics. June, 36:1, pp. 69 - 85. Kendrick, John W. 1961. Productivity > Trends in the United States. Princeton, NJ.: Princeton University Press. Kindleberger, Charles P. 1993. A Financial History of Western Europe. New York: Oxford University Press. Kleinknecht, Alfred. 1987. Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity: Schumpeter's Long Cycle Reconsidered. New York: St. Martin's Press. Mansfield, Edwin. 1965. “Innovation and Technical Change in the Railroad Industry,” in Transportation Economics. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 169-97. Washington Academy of Sciences 17 1 Margo, Robert A. 2000. “The Labor Force in the Nineteenth Century,” in Cambridge Economic History of the United States, Volume 2. Stanley Engerman and Robert Gallman, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 207 43. Mensch, Gerhard. 1979. Stalemate in Technology: Innovations Overcome the Depression. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger. Meyer, Peter B. 2003. “Episodes of Collective Invention.” Bureau of Labor Statistics Working paper, Washington, D.C., August. Miranti, Paul J. Jr. 2001. “U.S. Financial Reporting Standardization: 1840-2000.” World Development Report 2002: Institutions for Markets. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Mowery, David and Nathan Rosenberg. 2000. “Twentieth-Century Technological Change,” in Cambridge Economic History of the United States, Volume 3. Stanley Engerman and Robert' Gallman eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 803 925. Nelson, Richard R., Merton J. Peck and Edward D. Kalachek. 1967. Technology, Economic Growth, and Public Policy. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution. Paullin, Charles O. 1932. Atlas of the Historical Geography of the United States. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Institute and American Geographical Society. Rudebusch, Glenn D. and David W. Wilcox. 1994. “Productivity and Inflation: Evidence and Interpretations.” Unpublished manuscript. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Schmookler, Jacob. 1966. Invention and Economic Growth. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. U.S. Census Bureau. 1997. Historical Statistics of the United States on CD-ROM: Colonial Times to the Present. Susan Carter, Scott Gartner, Michael Haines, Alan Olmstead, Richard Sutch and Gavin Wright, eds. New York, N.Y: Cambridge University Press. White, Eugene N. 2000. “Banking and Finance in the Twentieth Century,” in Cambridge Economic Histoiy of the United States, Volume 3. Stanley Engerman and Robert Gallman, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 743 - 802. Spring 2006 Page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 19 LEARNING FROM THE EUROTUNNEL* TO BENEFIT MOONBASE DEVELOPMENT Stephen Weil TI Partners, London Abstract A manned facility on the Moon would likely be comparable in scale in its early days to the infrastructure developed in the early 1 990s for the Eurotunnel connecting France and the United Kingdom. That consisted of three railway tunnels under the Channel and the marshalling yards and associated service facilities at the ends of the tunnel. Many of the issues, especially funding issues, raised by a Moonbase development are similar to issues raised by the Channel tunnel. Review of decisions made by Eurotunnel developers could help Moonbase developers avoid some mistakes. A MANNED FACILITY CONSTRUCTED ON THE MOON, which WC will call “the Moonbase,” would at the outset presumably consist of sizeable infrastructure to support a transport hub, including shuttle-docking, launch, and repair facilities; a medical facility; a rest and recreation facility; and communications and security facilities. Quite quickly, it is expected, the Moonbase would develop a hospitality facility for visitors; research laboratories for R&D; an academic facility; several observatories; and the infrastructure necessary to support a growing mineral extraction industry and related construction facilities. The scale of the Moon-side facilities is likely to be comparable, even in the earliest days, to the infrastructure created in the early 1990s on the French side of the railway tunnels under the Channel connecting France with the United Kingdom. The French facilities include major railway marshalling yards, a huge (by European standards) retail complex, and office buildings, linked to the European motorway network. This paper was presented at the MoonBase Conference, held in Washington, D.C., October 2005, co-sponsored by the Academy, the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics, and High Frontier, Inc. Spring 2006 20 On account of the scale of the facilities required for a manned observatory on the Moon, it is useful to look at the methods of, and lessons learnt from, the funding of the railway tunnels connecting France with Great Britain as a useful precedent of how an international, public- private project of such great strategic significance might come together. Many of the issues raised by the Moonbase - issues of international relations, concessions to private sector suppliers, structure of the supplier contracts, commitments from users, project funding - were addressed and answered (if not always wisely, as we shall see) by Eurotunnel, the Channel Tunnel operator. Some readers may have taken the train between London and Paris, or between London and Brussels; for those not familiar with the Channel Tunnel, the Tunnel infrastructure has two railway tunnels plus one service tunnel under the Channel, with real estate at either end of the Tunnel for retail, office and distribution. The Tunnel is a railroad-only link, allowing express trains to link directly London with Paris and Brussels; cars and freight are carried on special shuttle vehicles. The Channel Tunnel idea shares with the Moonbase some distinctive challenges: • The primary role of both projects is to act as an international gateway: the Channel Tunnel is a gateway between Britain (50 million population in 1987) and continental Europe (290 million population in 1987), while the Moonbase will provide access between the Earth (6 billion population in 2005) and the Solar System. As a result, some form of international treaty, and implicitly political backing at the highest levels, is needed to give the project authority and credibility. • A second shared feature is that, due to the nature and novelty of the physical challenges, the up-front sunk costs are very high, and subject to significant large variations. With the Tunnel, the cost was projected at the start of construction to be $10.8 billion US; actually, the cost turned out to be $18 billion US, close to $30 billion US in current terms. Today’s Channel Tunnel was three years in formation, from the signing of an international treaty by France and the United Kingdom in late 1984, laying the legal framework, to the raising of most of the funding at the end of 1987. There had been a prior bid, ten years earlier, between 1973 and 1975, by the French and British Governments to authorize the Washington Academy of Sciences 21 building of a tunnel. This first attempt failed when both governments fell. The second attempt won out, with strong leaders in power in both countries. President Francois Mitterand in France and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom. Maybe the first important lesson for the Moonbase is this imperative for strong governments to give it force. The two governments succeeded in selling the idea of the Tunnel to their voters. They did this in part by announcing that there was to be no public funding for the construction and operation of the Channel link; the project was to be realized by private promoters. This took away the sting of much of the opposition to the project as a cost to the tax-payer. By insisting on no state funding. President Mitterand and Prime Minister Thatcher switched the focus of the debate from tax and cost to opportunity and challenge. This is the second lesson for realizing the Moonbase The two governments were careful to select a private promoter through an “open” bidding process, so no one could accuse the governments of favoritism. Three bidders emerged, each offering different technical solutions: the winner was the Eurotunnel consortium. Technically, the Tunnel is a major engineering triumph. Since its 1994 opening, apart from one fire in which fortunately no one died, it has had no major structural or technical problems. Financially, the Eurotunnel company has been a fiasco for its backers and funders. Eurotunnel’s core private sector consortium emerged out of a wide spread of construction and finance industry interests from France and the United Kingdom. Though the Project’s credibility demanded the inclusion of major corporations, it would have been better to have widened the core investor group to include users. For the Moonbase, we might think of energy, minerals explorations and chemicals corporations, and satellite tracking businesses. The absence of users in the Eurotunnel consortium was to prove a fundamental weakness in the design and execution of the project. With hindsight, the make-up of the core consortium, narrowed to suppliers, was the first error for a project on this scale of complexity and novelty. The core members subscribed collectively for around 5 percent of the total initial funding requirement. The balance of the equity, around 10 Spring 2006 22 percent of the total initial funding requirement, came through a public equity issue. Raising money from the public for a project of this magnitude and uncertainty, before building work was completed and a track record established, was the second mistake made by Eurotunnel. (Eurotunnel’s then managers would probably have argued that, given the way the capital markets looked at that time, only a public equity offering was viable.) Anyway, the outcome was wild speculation, and a volatile shareholder base which lacked stability. A premature approach to the public market was, then, the second mistake made by Eurotunnel in its finance structure. The rest of the funding, around 85 percent, was bank debt, partly secured by contracts from the railways agreeing to pay a minimum usage charge for the first 12 years of operation. Even so, the greater part of the bank debt servicing hinged on revenue streams, projected by consultants, of the number of vehicles and freight traffic using the Tunnel, and the prices their owners would be prepared to pay. As it turned out, the projections were wrong by a factor of one half, primarily because no one foresaw the impact of budget airlines and Internet bookings, which encouraged more traffic to cross the English Channel by air, not through the Tunnel. Too much reliance on consultants’ projections for a new business, rather than firm user contracts, was the third key weakness in Eurotunnel’s financial structure. What can the Moonbase learn from Eurotunnel’s successes (broad political support, technical triumph) and its mishaps (losses for investors and banks)? The decisions taken prior to start of construction are critical. We can identify three distinctive stages prior to the start of building: Stage 1 A number of governments agree to invite commercial concessions for a Moonbase, with a clear statement that there will be no state funding for the Moonbase, setting out an outline structure of a transparent concession bidding process, run by a combination of public officials and private sector specialists, and monitored by an independent, internationally- recruited Ethics Committee, in turn reporting to a committee of representatives of the governments. Washington Academy of Sciences 1 23 Stage 2 The transparent concession bidding process takes place, subject to overview by an independent Ethics Committee (similar to the Ethics Committees in a drug company), leading to the selection of a successful bidder. Stage 3 The contractor negotiates contracts with users such as: • NASA (R&R for astronauts, hospitals, monitoring, tracking. Earth observation), • Energy exploration, • Minerals exploration, and • Academic research. The contracts are contingent upon supply of facilities by a given date. In a parallel process the contractor puts in place funding contingent on user contracts; and insurance to cover the risk of technical failure. Throughout the various initial stages and subsequently, the Ethics Committee supervises the activity of the contractor to check for any damage to the environment or to human beings. The contractor should not be allowed by the financial authorities to offer its shares to the public before an operating track record is established, while firm user contracts should provide a solid base for the debt funding of the program. If structured correctly at the outset, the Moonbase provides an opportunity for a major cooperative effort among governments, universities, and business for the benefit of all. Spring 2006 Page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 25 ORGANIZATIONAL EVOLUTION, LIFE-CYCLE PROGRAM DESIGN: ESSENTIAL ISSUES IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND ACQUISITION OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS * Gary G. Nelson Homeland Security Institute Abstract A society of puiposeful agents — humans and now their artificial symbionts — self-organizes into partitions of activity (nations, corporations, agencies, services) and a scale hierarchy of governance. This complex-adaptive society is properly evolutionary. Such a society designs “projects” that create purposeful artifacts with a developmental life cycle. As the projects become more and more ambitious, the real and conceptual boundary between the evolutionary and the developmental — between the project and the society blurs. Over just the last seven decades, this growth in “designed complexity” has spawned the design of formal processes of systems engineering, concurrent with formal processes of acquisition (allocation of and accountability for significant social resources). The most interesting examples of such projects are the information systems for decision support that become the social linkage of indefinite extent, and the very means of collective design and acquisition of projects. So, we have two essential problems: 1) The blurring of designing subject and designed object, and 2) a recursive relation between the object and the designing process. Empirically (from experience with major federal programs), there is a vast conceptual confusion between evolution and development (including the design phase). This is reflected in persistent problems with the formal engineering and acquisition processes. Some principles of complex systems, with special reference to decision support systems, are articulated to identify and ameliorate the very practical problems encountered in the life-cycle development of complex designs by complex organizations. There is nothing uncommon about the scene: an organization undertakes a project of some complexity in order to fulfill the purpose of the organization. To be concrete, suppose the organization is a federal * Presented at CapitalScience 06, March 25-26, 2006, in the Washington Evolutionary Systems Society’s Symposium on the Emergences of Designs. Spring 2006 26 agency and the project is a multi-billion dollar automation /surveillance/communication system that enables the agency to perform its operational mission (e.g., homeland security, air traffic management, transportation operation). There are many such concurrent projects going on at any time. Several end up in the newspapers as immense failures. I was intimately involved in one — the Advanced Automation System (AAS) for air traffic management — in its early design, program management and acquisition phases. But there are other more prosaic projects, like highway or rail transit construction, that collectively alter the physical connectivity of society. Both informational connectivity through “cybernetic” systems and geographical connectivity through transport projects represent an extraordinary endeavor: designed systems that are inherent in the emergence of the designing society itself. Starting in the 1970s, it took me that decade to realize the vast gap between reach and grasp in transport planning: the projects were made to look small, through the stated regulatory and judicially-confirmed doctrine of “logical termini.” This is effectively a decomposition of the network into its links, one at a time. And yet all the purpose and rhetoric about the projects — individually or collectively — are extrapolated to vast social extents to cite benefits to the economy, society, and even the environment (ironic in face of the fact that most tangible environmental impacts are local and negative). These observations soon connected with the work inspired by Ilya Prigogine and conducted by Peter Allen [1978, 1981, 1987] under the sponsorship of Bob Crosby (founder of the Washington Evolutionary Science Society) who was then at the U.S. Department of Transportation. That work was about the networks that self-organize as our geography, polity, and economy. I was introduced to that work by my graduate school advisor, Pitu Mirchandani in 1981. The connections I started making between what I had observed about regional transport planning and the clear principles of complex systems [Nelson/Allen, 2001] included: 1. Society presumed to do “long range” planning about regional development (including transport), but all the evidence pointed to this being nugatory (neither legally effective nor factually accurate in prediction). 2. The long range planning was a legal and predictive cover for a host of projects (mostly highway expansions), that in the disaggregate had only the most tenuous relation to the regional models. Washington Academy of Sciences 27 3. The very idea of planning was defeated by our social ideology of localistic laissez-faire. Compared to our presumptions about large-scale planning of any kind, our real and intuitive models of society are much better fitted to the complex system that society is. Both our economic-market and political- democratic doctrines emphasize emergence from localistic interaction. The residual debate is about the role of a scale hierarchy of governance in what otherwise would be simply a one-scale anarchy of interaction. But the scale hierarchy (groups that conceive and act upon aggregate social objects, or sets of common rules of interaction) is an inherent structure of self-organizing (i.e., complex-adaptive or evolutionary) systems. That much I realized after reading Stan Salthe [1985, 1993] with whom I since have engaged in many fruitful dialogs. In the 1980s I joined MITRE and became engaged in the AAS, at that time the most ambitious example of a cybernetic system yet undertaken. This was in direct line of succession from what I consider to be the first system-integration effort (the British air defense system in World War II) through the Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) system from which MITRE emerged (1958) and the original digitized air traffic management system, called National Airspace System (NAS) Stage A (1973). It happens that air traffic management is a fine example of the tri-scaled structure posed by Salthe. Being involved with the AAS benefit- cost/risk analysis and some of its operational planning [Nelson, 1992] I began to see how information and risk-decision making were really the key evolutionary-development analogues between social activity, the true biological structure, dynamics of evolution, and development. More recently, I have been concerned with facilitating groups in complex system engineering processes that I center on the concept of operations (CONOPS) portion, for reasons that will be elaborated. I have also witnessed what I consider to be the third phase of development of the system engineering process, between the early 1960s and now. Since the 1980s, the acquisition process — taken as the budgeting and expenditure of public funds for the complex system projects — has also become much more formalized, culminating in the OMB Exhibit-300 requirements for federal projects and including “reference models” with appeal to complex system theory. The following observations emerge: A. Complexity, in projects or processes, tends to be laid out in linear, sequential ways that lose important attributes of the complex Spring 2006 28 system and process. This is, of course, responsive to projects that, however complex, are purposefully designed and have finite life cycles because the purpose, their environment, or their functionality changes. B. There is much talk about “evolutionary development” that conceptually tries to bridge the ongoing project environment (including the designers as well as interfacing systems) and the finite designed-project. A small fraction of people who espouse the concept know what they are talking about (as witnessed by making “to evolve” a transitive verb). C. The problems with the acquisition process, much more than the system engineering process, are evident, acute and expensive. They could be addressed by the necessary fusion of evolution and development as evo-devo (to adopt another biological metaphor). The theme of “design” versus evolution is current. Strictly, design of a system is just one phase of its life cycle development and not part of acquisition. The thrust of this paper is that the fundamental dichotomy is in the original biological concepts of evolution (referring to the processes of genetic change) and development (referring to the life cycL of the individual organism, or proteome or phenotype tried by the genor The important principles concern how the purposeful organization (at multiple scales) persists robustly through the mechanism of instantiating a number of trials of interaction in the common environment. An Image of Evo-Devo Evo-Devo is a network. In a geographical metaphor, it is the emergent “fitness landscape” that incorporates the dynamic competition between transient niches that persist long enough to be seen as real and reproducing phenotypes. The genome is, of course, physically instantiated with the phenotypes. The conceptual trick leading to the scale hierarchy is that the genome also has a persistence and emergent identity above the physical instantiations. At that point, our metaphors become muddled: the genome is a design for the phenotype, but does not purposefully design the phenotype. Anything real and physical is recursive between parts of organisms, organisms, and the rest of the physical environment that organisms shape. Let us shift what we can from the biology to a particular set of organisms (us) who are purposeful agents (decision makers). But in this Washington Academy of Sciences 29 information age, the “us” will be extended to artificial agents. Here is an axiomatic statement of that evo-devo network: 1. Agents are linked by information. 2. The information is created pairwise by agents making decisions, and each agent is a node where information is received and created. 3. Every decision is informed by received information (this excludes decisions totally indifferent to the environment). This means that every decision is a risk decision: there is uncertainty relative to the value, or “utility” of the decision to an agent, and the uncertainty is resolved in whole or part by received information. 4. The emergent network of agent nodes and information - communication links is a congested network. It is the environment of the agents, including all their information inputs and outputs, and so partially the result of the agents themselves. 5. The network has an associated physics of mass/energy, but this is either irrelevant to the logical agents and information, or interfaces to the agent network by sensors and actuators via risk decisions. This set of axioms was reduced after long consideration about what is essential to complex organizations and their projects. Yes, physical outcomes matter and are the ultimate, objective measures of “fitness.” But all our processes and how we act to design, develop, and acquire are concerned with the logical network of agents, as are design- objects that are decision support systems (including communication and information systems, whose purpose is to inform risk decisions). These axioms may seem a long way from practical matters of how evolutionary organizations (sub networks as described) develop projects. But the axioms imply structures, dynamics and deductions (principles) that get directly to the problems of complex systems trying to develop complex systems. A few relevant expansions of the axioms will be made. Risk Decisions There are at least three qualitatively different definitions of risk. The axioms consist with an assertion that risk is the uncertainty around a payoff to an agent making a decision. And although there have been decades of debate about even this notion of risk, it is largely consistent with the view taken by game theory and economics. Spring 2006 30 We can link the network of agents with learning concepts, because that also is essential to evo-devo: agents or their organizations demonstrate fitness by “learning” to promote some local measure of value (e.g., fertility, wealth, happiness, power). Those familiar with the concept of “utility” will realize that the measure can be internalized and completely subjective, with no real explanatory power. It is important that groups of agents tend to demand objective value measures regarding the use of joint resources (including information). But such measures internal to a group can be just as metaphysical as utility. Benefit-cost analysis for public projects is a case in point, where the best we can do is translate supposed distributed outcomes (physical or not) into dollars that is just an abstract numeraire, and furthermore outside of real markets that are the only source of “value” for such a numeraire. Game theory is the best context for discussing the network of interacting agents. Each decision is a commitment to a “move.” In complex organizations, there are usually extended path(s) through agents (sequential and parallel decision chains) to get to a physical product (and with or without relevant physical data to begin with!). Therefore, a commitment or move may be taken as either the sending of information or (rarely) the creation of a real outcome-producing physical state of the environment. Each agent considers the agent-local value of potential decisions. Because the chains are long to ultimate outcomes, they are subject to other decisions (i.e., information not yet available), hence uncertain. Uncertainty is just the absence of valuable information. This puts the game in a Bayesian framework: the value of incoming information is always relative to how it affects a hypothesis (predicted value) of an agent. This is how and why information is created pairwise among agents. Information accrues value only in the transaction between an agent in one “hypothesis state” and another. But this also gets back to the basic Shannon/Hartley/Szilard definition of information. Information is defined by its resolution of uncertainty. But when we analyze what this means, it is about an outcome on a channel with two agents (source and receiver). A physical bit means nothing by itself. The logical bit referred to here has to inform by being part of a message whose meaning is defined by the payoff to the receiving (and decision making) agent. But it equally requires the participation of the sending agent, for whom the transmission of the bit is, in fact, a decision. Washington Academy of Sciences 31 The approach here clarifies the difference between physical information (unpredictable channel-state change) and logical information (or valuable “meaning” to an agent). That difference is essential to the network of agents, how it structures and how it changes (adapts, or fails to). Via game theory we can start getting an “economic” explanation of the network. But essentially, it is always about the allocation of scarce resources. In discussing projects, the allocation is about budgets to projects and the agents are people with authority to contribute resources that are either theirs personally or “public.” In the latter case, agent value about power and position (their ex officio identity) are extremely important to what happens. In order to get to the essence of development and acquisition processes, we need to see the agents as the congested network contending over abstract payoffs via information (although fisticuffs cannot be excluded entirely). This model of a congested network of risk decisions has a very important generalization: It does not matter whether the agents are within a “collaborative” organizational identity or not. It works across all contentions over some common resource. It works for antagonistic economic desires, and it works for terrorists versus securers. The network is marked by what does emerge as the common context of interaction, and that is what is local to organizational clusters. But the problems faced by the organizations cross organizations. Since so much of the systems approach was developed for weapons, this is the general model we need. Both the process of development and the objects of development are about resource contention games. Improvements in play are about the information to support risk decisions and that necessarily involves contending players. Scale Hierarchy A flat view of the agents in the network is inadequate. Every organization has a management hierarchy. This responds to the emergence of scales from partitioned interaction. The scale hierarchy is a structure of all evo-devo systems, and the congested network of agents. It follows from the Simon-Ando principle of partial decomposability [1961]: Self-organized networks emerge up-scale from modular interaction that overcomes the combinatorial barriers to unitary self-assembly. The modules themselves have some mechanism to instantiate each interaction. We have here a conceptual triad that resonates with some other triadic concepts [Salthe/Nelson, in progress]: Spring 2006 32 Peircean Categories Aristotelian Causes Scale Hierarchy Triad Thirdness (emergence) Final Emergent Context (network) Secondness (connection) Formal/Efficient Collective of peer modules Firstness (object) Material Mechanism There are rich connections and implications of this table. From the Peircean perspective, any design is about instantiating a concept via the connection of parts whose whole corresponds to the concept. For self¬ organization, absent a designer, we just eliminate the first step that is recursive with the emergent result anyway. From the causes, finality corresponds to the concept and/or emergent. The material cause is what is assembled. Formal and efficient causes must be seen as a dialectic, and can be interpreted as what an agent decides to do (efficiency) being “formed” by information from the emergent environment. The formal/efficient dialectic is fundamental to either biological development (morphogenesis) or any product development. An engineer perceives a time series profile in design and construction in which the early phase is dominated by imposing the concept on unorganized material (efficiency). But then as the product emerges, it is actually the product that highly constrains (cf. “decides”) the further organization of materials and the balance shifts to formality. This time-series profile of agency (hence information) is essential to every life cycle engineering and acquisition process. The locus of information creation that shifts from design/efficiency to product/formality is what creates and then resolves program risk. Risk management is about the process by which the information is created over time with respect to resources. Fort this reason, a normal expenditure/progress profile in earned value management (EVM) is S-shaped like the profile that can be defined for the entropy rate of any development [Salthe, 1993]. Organizations show this profile: when they are formative, they are efficiently creating the structure to adapt to the niche they are filling. When mature, the organization is dominated by its own structure, that is good at what it was originally doing but maladaptive to a changing environment. The scale hierarchy has manifold interpretations. For the congested network of agents, what we visualize as the tinker-toy network of agents transacting information is the focal scale and the collective of peer agents. They partition (decompose) the information of the entire network into local information and common protocols (rules, laws, norms). The fact of each agent’s state is the mechanism by which the pairwise transactions are Washington Academy of Sciences 33 made among the collective. In the market model we would say that the context scale are property laws and price, the focal collective is the market itself of producers and consumers exchanging goods, and the mechanism scale is the production process and processed commodities owned by each producer. Note that the goods are emergent from the production process, and indeed we can include pure money or information transactions here. There is a similar qualitative shift between each pair of scales. In the pure information network, the information transacted is essentially the predictor of the source-agent’s state, and that state is produced by the source agent’s own, hidden mechanism. That is the valued information in the risk-decision game of commitments. What the receiving agent “owns” as a result of the transaction is the power to achieve a payoff by use of this information. The source agent may be an opposing player or a surrogate for such a player in a long chain of prediction. This model makes no distinction about whether the ultimate opponent is another sentient agent or a state of nature. Having a prediction about rain serves a similar payoff to a prediction that someone will spray you with a hose. The same applies to preparedness for natural disasters or intentional terror. Now, self-similarity of scales implies that if information of value can emerge from some mechanism to a focal scale, the same can be replicated over several scales. This applies to any modular or organizational decomposition. It is why we get several scales of management in a big corporation or nation. The principle of prediction among peer agents, no matter what scale they represent, is the same. The scales result from the partitioning of local information and there will be a number of scales according to the total information in the total environment (within any defined system and its external interfaces). The partitioning results from the finite predictive capability of any module or agent. And the “finite” limit is the risk tolerance of the payoff. No efficient agent will decide when the limits are so large that decisions are really random. No system will “learn” and adapt under such circumstances. But this limit scales: higher managers will be very uncertain about the individual state of agents a few levels down. What they have to be reasonably sure about is the performance of the organization over a strategic scale. To achieve this, formal constraints are imposed (rules, directives, guidance, physical facilities) on lower scales that act like mechanisms to higher scales. Spring 2006 34 There are many fine points here about the dynamics of the total environment. It is assumed that the environment is non-equilibrium, and statistically non-stationary. That means that all predictions are fallible, in terms of exceeding risk limits. This time series-effect is also reflected on the ensemble of agents. There is a well-known distribution of exploiters and explorers among collectives of agents (or risk-avoiders and risk- takers). This amounts to the variety in phenotypical trials that creates and occupies niches. This is how any relative context scale learns in a non- stationary environment. What persists (and hence what we see) are good mixtures of agent types organized in ways that lets the exploiters get resources for the organization under a given environment and lets the explorers change the organization as the environment changes. Layers The scale hierarchy is exhibited as layers of management or self¬ similar layers of decomposition. But in information architectures, layers have another meaning. They are a decomposition of an end-to-end information transaction, or channel. For the purposes here, three layers are important: 1 . The network of logical agents, who value information and make decisions (create information). 2. Decision support applications that assist the agents by processing the valuable information (and it is here that a network of artificial agents may be placed relative to human agents). 3. The communication of information in channels that far from creating or using information are expected to slavishly pass it along unaltered. The third layer is the object of “information technology” and communications. It has its own decompositions, e.g. into a seven layer stack, or some variation on those, that constitutes the Internet (TCP/IP protocol layers). And the bottom layer is always a physical medium that can take on physical-bit states. These layers must be kept in mind for proper focus in the scale hierard There may be any number of scales (layers) of logical agents or modules in a system. They all look “flat” if viewed as their physical instantiation (people, a machine). Anyone in a suit could be an executive or applicant for the mail room. Similarly, the means of interaction may be Washington Academy of Sciences 35 a common communications infrastructure. This is implicit. How that communications works (physical mail versus Internet, landline telephone versus cellphone, horse versus airplane) is a powerful environmental context for the agent society. And so a society of designing agents may be trying to design a system for interaction (e.g., a large-scale communications and computer network for decision support, or a new transport network) that will alter how they interact, or even how they design such systems. This evokes a more radical dialectic of formal and efficient cause: It puts subject and object at the same focal scale of interaction. Where is Design in Complex Systems? The challenge is not a simple widget that is designed and produced. The reason for the interest in elaborate system engineering, or life-cycle development and acquisition processes, is the ambition to create complex systems with the ability to transform the very organization that designs and interacts with that system. This is the sense in which “business process reengineering” or “enterprise transformation” is used now in the systems community. But even if the effect of the system is not recursive, the organization that manages a complex development for “someone else” will be challenged and transformed by its interaction with its object. The past decades have been dominated by a shift from the “waterfall” model of systems design and development to other models that encounter the confusion between evolution and development at the same time they claim to both. The “waterfall” represents a progressive instantiation of a product system from concept to operation. But in fact this must always occur if anything real is to be produced purposefully (by design). The waterfall may be associated with any relation between an agent and the mechanism scale in the scale hierarchy, because every agent locally wants to see a progressive sequence toward an output of some kind. The confusion arises by failing to put that into a full scale hierarchy where most focal scales have an iterative interaction with peers, and emergent context (that is iterative with the focal scale), and a mechanism scale that is not the final product instantiation. More often, an agent is only serving as the coordinative context (management) of a further set of peers. The ability to trace what appears to be a linear thread of increasing specification toward instantiation of a product is only an illusion absent the back and forth, mistakes, revisions and reconceptualizations that occur in reality. Spring 2006 36 The alternative to the waterfall is evo-devo, and that usually reduces to some sort of “spiral” concept. Spirals refer to an image of a concept going through successive, tentative instantiations (e.g., rapid prototypes). There is a learning feedback that adds information to a next phase that can go back to a concept before progressing to a more substantial prototype product. This is a good approach, but all it is doing is formalizing the back-and-forth that always occurred in the engineering of complex systems and that a strict waterfall image just overlooks. Where is “design” in this? The best we can say is that it represents a transient phase local to each agent where a causal relation between a concept and an output is perceived. But that applies to every agent transaction. Most such transactions are purely informational: a decision is in fact a “design” of what message string will be sent. But we tend to think of design as applying to a physically instantiated product. In complex systems that design is as decentralized and time-spread as the agents themselves. This is why we distinguish self-organization and evolution from design. The difficulty arises when we try to apply a causal concept of progressive specification to a collective of agents in any complex system. The Design/Development/Acquisition Life-Cycle Process How does the empirical evidence of any dew ment process compare with the scale hierarchy theory? All formal \ ocesses define levels of interaction that progress from the conceptual to the formal instantiation. These levels or scales are roughly as follows: • A scale deciding what to do (mission). • A systems integration scale that defines modules of functionality and is concerned with their interfaces to fulfill the mission. • Teams concerned with further specifying each module, meaning that further modular levels and interfaces are created. • Until we reach the scale where a module is instantiated and assembled into th- ole system that fulfills the mission. The acquisition process generally jumps in at some level of maturity of modular specification. This raises an issue of how resources are allocated to research as opposed to what is strictly considered acquisition of a product. But, at some point in a supposed progressive instantiation of a design, an interest is excited between engineers and executives who then are synchronized into series of benchmark progress Washington Academy of Sciences 1 37 reviews and the risk management of the formal/efficient information profile. We simply want the development money to run out when the product is “done.” At that point there is generally another “color” of money to complete the operational life cycle. Another issue here is how to deal with the significant lag in the budgeting process relative to development. About three years are necessary to get a budget “wedge” established for a project big and complex enough to excite the interest of OMB review. That planning horizon has much to do with generating program risk because of the uncertainty about the development profile: The environment may change, the specification may change, the reality of the formal cause will contend with the efficient concept. But these problems are inherent in an interaction between engineering and budgeting. If ideas want resources, they are the beggars. A Prescription: The Scaled CONOPS A lot of evidence can be given on the problems in complex organizations through the life cycle. To cut that short, a jump will be made to a simple observation and prescription for the process. This is based on the scale hierarchy and a specific peer collaboration process that will be called the CONOPS. The empirical development process has always had a number of self-similar scales as alluded to above. In older system engineering processes, levels of specifications were called out. Each of these progressively represents a further decomposition of modules and a richer specification of them and their interfaces. But fundamentally the same kind of scale-hierarchy triad was occurring around each scale, now also represented as a time-series of increasing specification toward instantiation: • A contextual “mission” (general specification) is received by all agents at a scale (a collaborative). The agents represent a decomposition of functionality also passed with the mission. The decomposition is integrated by an interface specification also maintained at the upper context scale. • The agents cluster as a loosely coupled system. There may be several physical agents assigned to a module. The inter-module interaction is less intensive but can reflect back to the context scale to change protocols and specifications. Spring 2006 38 • The “design” interaction within a module is intensive. It results in the next scale of specification. When this is passed on, it appears as context to a next scale of collaboration. The next scale is the mechanism for progressing toward instantiation. While this looks like a waterfall description, it also incorporates spirals, especially when the reverse sequence up the scales is stated, and as occurs in reality. So, a sequence down the scales can instantiate one phase of prototype as well as “final product.” In a globally evolutionary system, the finite life cycle of any product means that there is always recursion back to the “top” scale, although often that is with different physical agents, in another thread for another “project.” Dynamically the scale hierarchy implies a requirement of nested stability between scales. This means that a context scale has to be stable long enough to complete a specification-to-mechanism and reverse cycle. Stability means that the information from context remains sufficiently constant over the cycle not to alter any of the information from an agent cluster to its mechanism, and, in addition, to allow time for an agent cluster to learn from feedback from its relative mechanism scale This is the condition for convergence of learning from the development cycle itself. If this does not occur, the “vertical” information generated in the process as part of the formal/efficient dialectic cannot be organized. That is, the system will not self-organize toward a product. This criterion is equivalent to “requirements stability,” something that is often pathologically violated. However, the ability to adapt the requirements from internal information is allowed and this is often what is meant by an evo-devo process in the product life-cycle context. Clearly, the internal stability criterion can be overturned by “external” information. A new market, technical or threat environment can render obsolete any development. If this external information dominates, the system is not self-organizing. However, the incorporation of fluctuations (in Prigogine’s sense) is part of the adaptive process. This puts constraints on the absolute cycle times of the scale interactions. We want “fast” development because we want a return on investment of the product relative to an inevitably changing environment. We can enhance this quality if we make each focal scale expeditious in achieving a self-similar cycle of receiving context, interacting, and specifying. A principle for doing this is to convene the agents (stakeholders) relevant to any module in a concurrent process, as opposed Washington Academy of Sciences 39 to preventing the intensive intra-module interaction. But this simple principle scales; in order for any relative context scale to adapt the interfaces (that are loosely coupled at a focal scale but intensively relative to the context scale) the higher manager must similarly convene and make concurrent the lower-scaled modules. Now, it happens there is a model for this expedited process readily at hand, and it has been there for a few decades, at least. It is the Operational Concept Description (OCD), often called a concept of operations (CONOPS). However, a CONOPS can also be construed narrowly as a codification of what an operation does, and the OCD proper is strictly a document as product early in a development thread of a system. But the content requirement of the OCD is fundamental: 1 . Statement of the functional mission. 2. The environmental scenarios that stress the functions. 3. An analysis of shortfalls in the functionality. 4. Improvements (and alternatives) to make the functionality adequate. 5. An impact evaluation of the prescribed improvements. There is a process behind producing this content, and a constituency. Also, strongly implied by the contents and process is the “architecture” of the system, a notion that arrived later in systems engineering than the OCD, but that is really the system description embedded in the CONOPS. The architecture picture emerges from the interaction of the constituents of the CONOPS. What has just been stated is nothing more than a description of: • An allocation of mission from context scale. • The interaction between the focal scale of agents within the mission context. • The focal scale making a further specification of the proposed system to a next scale of specification. • The emergence of an architecture as the integrative concept, back to context scale (or we can view architecture as part of mission allocation with the focal scale adding a level of specificity; in any case it performs the modular integration role). Spring 2006 40 The agents at the focal scale include the operational domain experts, who properly are the customers for the system. But equally the engineers must be included. And we can specify scenario creators (simulators) and evaluators as additional fields of expertise. Proper facilitation of such a constituency, with modular specification being embodied in prior and offline knowledge of the participants, achieves the desired interactive and concurrent expedition of the process, at any scale. We can have physical agents participate at multiple scales to embody the vertical interfaces between scales. This seems simple enough, but there is a great deal of resistance to it. Firstly, the standard jargon destroys the self-similarity between the scales of process that become sequential steps of process. At some high level, there is strategy, policy, possibly mission analysis. In fact any discourse by agents at that scale will include, however implicitly, the five related contents of the OCD. The mistake would be to generate some unconsidered high-level specification (policy) and leave the other parts to someone else sometime later. Then, the OCD/CONOPS by name appears only early in the acquisition process, generally long after the content at that scale has been generated, as part of formal documentation. It is pasted together absent the proper constituency, perhaps by some group distant from the earlier development process, absent operational stakeholders. This is where the problems in the requirements process start, and it is quite contrary to the intent of the OCD and its placement in the development process. Then at some lower scale one is just “designing” some modular system component and the process again becomes implicit. If in fact the higher scales have constrained the design so much as to obviate the need for a systematic look at the modules at a particular scale, the process has become too dominated by the formal constraints too soon, unless you do indeed believe in a straight-through waterfall progression. In addition to failing to recognize the necessary self-similarity of the OCD process at multiple scales, there is the tendency to make a critical path serialization of the content steps: Someone defines the operational functions (that may or may not be part of a separate “architecture” process), someone comes up with improvement concepts (researchers and engineers), someone does modeling and simulation on alternatives, someone does the “investment analysis” of impacts. There can be, and is, a great deal of confusion on what order these should be done in because there is a great deal of confusion about their scaling. The tendency is to make each part a big project itself, and to engulf scales that should have Washington Academy of Sciences 41 been specified earlier, or should be specified later. And so there is often criticism that none of this is adaptive to either external or internal information. In any case it slows and bulks the process. It does not help that the acquisition benchmark reviews are established as yet another chain of activities, with other constituents. While the modem life-cycle development processes retain the OCD (more or less as it has been for at least 20 years now), they have not fully recognized its significance and how it fits a true evo-devo system. There are several rather vague prescriptions for tailoring the prescribed steps of the life cycle process to complex systems. But a scale hierarchy of self-similar CONOPS interactions is the complex system of agents appropriate to the instantiation of not just one product, but an ongoing adaptive set of such products. The challenge is to see how the ongoing, scaled organization (although with different physical agents filling ex officio logical positions over time) relates to the threads of finite life-cycle development. So, the tendency is to customize a linear, progressive acquisition thread to parallel the maturity of the product thread. That by itself contradicts another intuitive approach of “portfolio management.” The portfolio approach is just a modular clustering of projects. This may or may not be used properly in the risk management sense of having an ensemble of projects to accomplish a mission. Often, a portfolio is just a set of different but critically interdependent projects. However, with an ensemble of projects there is large-scale management of the portfolio and smaller scaled management of its constituents. This concept can be aligned with the modular decomposition of any project. It is difficult for this scaled approach to supplant the dedicated acquisition chain if the projects themselves are monolithically discrete. But that in itself is what is opposed by the reaction to the waterfall approach coupled with “big bang” projects. That reaction comes directly from experience with projects such as the A AS, although it must be noted that the predecessors to the AAS and the systems approach itself are famously successful “big bang” projects like the ICBM, the Polaris submarine, SAGE and NAS Stage A. An alternative hypothesis is that the AAS was victim to formalized process that interfered with the natural scale hierarchy, tried to keep constituents at arm’s length, and made the interactive steps excessively sequential. 42 Today, “open systems” are the norm. This concept exactly reflects partial decomposability and the scale hierarchy. But given this concept of an evolutionary system with life-cycle modules, there is no reason to make projects so monolithic that they require a separate acquisition chain for each thread in addition to the ongoing scale hierarchy of modular interfacing and specification. The waterfall model can come back as the “rainfall” model. That is, because of the dynamic scaling requirements, large-scale specifications are general but enduring. As we go down the scales there is a more and more raindrop-like “falling” of specifications that hit the physical ground as real modular instantiations. Then, the reality of the whole system “evaporates up” again as aggregate information to emerge as new general concepts that precipitate. This model has the key advantage that it keeps the foci of agents properly scaled. For instance, executives need to keep a strategic view. When we entrain them in acquisition threads, they are distracted. Conversely, the builders are often left with inadequate context so that failures are blamed on “poor requirements” traceable all the way up. We can, and should, modularize real instantiations so that their mechanism management is kept small scale. This approaches biological evo-devo: The genome launches portfolios of phenotypical trials and does not itself engage in the real trials of life cycles. But for purposeful agent systems, what we have is a set of scales, with CONOPS all the way through and the reification of products only low in scale. This also preserves a balanced profile of efficient causality pursuing the mission (final cause) versus formal cause of the instantiations made material. Conclusion The intent here is to use basic evo-devo theory to address the problems of complex organizations building complex systems. In complex systems, development is not opposed to evolution but is its mechanism. Life cycle instantiations that have a development path are the means for the evolutionary system to adapt. In the biological application of this concept, design is problematic. In organizations of purposeful agents, it is inherent. By being purposeful, every agent designs, if only to decide a message or an action. The problem is that we engage in the fallacy of extrapolating this individual-agent activity to the collective that emerges with scale-hierarchy structure. The highest ex officio position in such a hierarchy is filled by a designing individual: the state, or the corporation, or the organization however does not “design.” This fallacy carries over into the problem of how the process for life cycle development and Washington Academy of Sciences 43 acquisition is “designed.” We entrain the highest scales of the organization in development threads as if there were corporate design of the products. But there is not — there is only the scaled functioning of the organization that must continually integrate physical instantiations into an indefinitely large system that was not by any means designed. Under the “open systems” doctrine — that is synonymous with evo-devo — there is no need to scale-up what is designed until it approaches the scale of the emergent organization. REFERENCES Allen, P.M. et. al., The Dynamics of Urban Evolution, Volume 1: Inter-Urban Evolution and Volume 2: Intra-Urban Evolution , Final Report, October 1978. USDOT-RSPA, Cambridge, MA. _ , 1981, Urban Evolution, Self-Organisation and Decision Making , Environment and Planning A, pp 167-183. Allen, P.M., 1997, Cities and Regions as Self-Organizing Systems: Models of Complexity, Gordon and Breach, Environmental Problems and Social Dynamics Series. Lendaris, George G., 1964. On the Definition of Self-Organizing Systems, Proc. Of the IEEE, March 1964. Mankins, John C., 1995. TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVELS, A White Paper, April 6, 1995, Advanced Concepts Office, Office of Space Access and Technology, NASA. At http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/codeq/trl/trl.pdf Mesarovic, M.D., 1964. Self-Organizing Control Systems, pp. 265-269, IEEE Trans. On Applications and Industry, 83. Nelson, Gary G., 1990. Hierarchies, Noise Like the Wind and Networks, pp. 564-570, Vol. II, Proceedings of the 34th Annual Meeting, International Society for the Systems Sciences, Portland, OR. July 8-13, 1990. Nelson, Gary G., 1992. Adaptive, Multi-Scaled ATM: Making it Work, USDOT, FAA, ARD-100. Nelson, Gary G. and Peter M. Allen, Self-Organizing Geography: Scaled Objects and Regional Planning in the U.S., NECSI Bi-Annual Meeting, 2001, Nashua, N.H. Nelson, Gary G., 2003. “Next TFM: Collaboration to 2015 and Beyond”, for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), AUA TAC. Nelson, Gary G., 2005. High-Level Architecture of Homeland Security, Homeland Security Institute. Nelson, Gary G., 2006. “Axioms and Architecture for Multi-Agent Systems in Homeland Security”, Submitted to the 3rd International ISCRAM Conference, May 2006. Norman, Douglas O. and Michael L. Kuras, 2004, Engineering Complex Systems, The MITRE Corporation, January 2004. At http://www.mitre.org/work/tech_papers/tech_papers_04/norman_engineering/ Spring 2006 44 Salthe, S.N., 1985. Evolving Hierarchical Systems: Their Structure and Representation, Columbia University Press. Salthe, S.N., 1993. Development and Evolution: Complexity and Change in Biology, MIT Press. Salthe, S.N., Summary of the Principles of Hierarchy Theory, November 2001. At http://www.nbi.dk/~natphil/salthe/hierarchy_th.html Simon, H.A. and A. Ando, 1961. Aggregation of variables in dynamic systems. Econometrica: 29:111-138, 1961. Washington Academy of Sciences A METHOD FOR DESIGNING IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATIONS, PRODUCTS, AND SERVICES 45 Dragon Tevdovski University of Sts. Cyril and Methodius, Skopje, Macedonia Irina Naoumova Kazan State University, Kazan, Russia Stuart Umpleby The George Washington University Washington, D.C. Abstract A Quality Improvement Priority Matrix (QIPM) may be used for identifying priorities for improving an organization, a product, or a service. This paper reports on the use of the QIPM method by members of the Department of Management Science at The George Washington University and members of the Department of Management at Kazan State University in Kazan, Russia, in 2002. Features of a Department, such as salaries, teaching assistants, computer hardware, etc. (a total of 5 1 features), were evaluated on the scales of importance and performance. Recent research has significantly improved the method as a way of determining priorities, monitoring progress, identifying consensus or disagreement, and comparing two organizations. This paper discusses additional statistical improvements and ways of presenting the results of statistical analysis. The QIPM method is a way of achieving agreement among a group of people on the most important actions to be taken. Introduction The features of an organization, as evaluated by employees, might include salaries, health benefits, office space, secretarial help, and computer equipment. The features of a product, as evaluated by customers, might include price, styling, reliability, and resale value. Assuming an organization wants to improve its performance, where Spring 2006 46 should it focus its attention? How can an organization use limited resources so as to achieve the greatest return in customer and employee satisfaction? A Quality Improvement Priority Matrix (QIPM) can be used to determine priorities among features and to monitor performance improvement. Customers or employees evaluate various features of an organization or product or service on two scales: importance and performance. The intent is to identify features that are rated high in importance and low in performance. A Quality Improvement Priority Matrix was first described by the managers at GTE Directories Corporation in 1995. They conducted a customer satisfaction measurement program for determining what was important to their customers, how well the company was performing, and how the comp° could do better. (Chapman, 1995 and Carlson, 1995) A similar method called a “strategic improvement matrix” was used uy the people from Armstrong Building Products Operation. (Wellendorf, 1996) A QIPM was found to be useful for evaluating the Junior Faculty Development Program by Naoumova and Umpleby (2002). Melnychcnko and Umpleby (2001) and Karapetyan and Umpleby (2002) used a QIPM to identify priorities in a University department. Prytula, et al. (2004) devised the Importance/ Performance Ratio. Dubina and Umpleby (2006) applied cluster analysis and suggested that standard deviation be used as a measure of lack of agreement. The aim of this paper is to compare the assessments by faculty members of the Department of Management Science at the George Washington University (GWU), USA, and the Department of Management at Kazan State University (KSU), Russia, and to further develop the QIPM method as a guide for improvement efforts. We define a high priority feature as having high importance and low performance. Naoumova and Umpleby (2004) earlier compared priorities of thusa Departments, but in their analysis they used simple quantitative methods In this paper we shall improve the comparison of the features and thd* priorities by using more advanced statistical techniques. We present the data in Part II. Evaluation and standardization of the measures is made in Part III. Part IV presents and discusses the data in matrix form for the two departments. Parts V and VI compare the priorities of the two departments and show the results of a cluster analysis. Washington Academy of Sciences 1 47 The Data Data were collected by means of a questionnaire. The questionnaire covered 51 features. The features included in the questionnaire were issues that had been discussed by the GWU faculty in recent years. The same features were used in the KSU questionnaire in order to make comparisons. The questionnaire was given to management faculty members at both GWU and KSU in 2002. Twenty responses were received from GW faculty, and eighteen from KSU faculty. Faculty members evaluated the importance and performance of each feature of the department. A scale from 0 to 10 was used. On the importance scale 0 means that the feature has no importance at all and 10 means that the feature has a very high importance for the department. On the performance scale 0 means that the department’s performance is very poor, whereas 10 means the department’s performance is excellent. Evaluation of Importance and Performance The scores for each feature were averaged. Descriptive statistics for GWU and KSU are shown in Table 1 . Table 1: Descriptive statistics for GWU and KSU Importance - Performance Std. N Range Minimum Maximum Mean Deviation Importance (GWU) 51 4.80 4.20 9.00 7.5408 1.25207 Performance (GWU) 51 4.90 3.25 8.15 5.4890 1.18905 Importance (KSU) 51 6.00 4.00 10.00 7.3371 1.84934 Performance (KSU) 51 8.39 .50 8.89 4.3529 2.49989 Spring 2006 48 For all the features the mean value on importance at GWU was 7.54. At KSU the mean value for importance was 7.34. These results imply that the features are considered to be quite important by faculty members at both universities. The mean scores on performance at GWU and KSU are 5.49 and 4.35, respectively. These scores suggest that corrective actions should be taken in order to improve the functioning of both university departments. Dispersion is a measure of consensus among the faculty members. A standard deviation of 0 implies that faculty members evaluate a feature the same way. The higher the standard deviation is, the higher are the evaluation differences among the faculty members. GWU standard deviations are 1.25 and 1 .19 on importance and performance, respectively. KSU has much higher standard deviations, 1.85 and 2.50 on importance and performance, respectively. In order to compare the evaluation differences we measured the coefficient of variation. It ranges between 0% and 100%. If the coefficient of variation is 0%, this means that there is consensus among faculty members. If its value is 100%, this means that all faculty members differ in their evaluations. The coefficients of variation of GWU and KSU are presented in Table 2. Table 2: Coefficients of Variation of GWU and KSU Coefficient of Variation Importance (GWU) 16.60% Performance (GWU) 21.66% Importance (KSU) 25.21% Performance (KSU) 57.43% GWU has higher agreement among faculty members. Or, in other words, differences among KSU faculty members are higher. Table 2 also suggests that the differences on performance are higher than those on importance. Especially note the high values of dispersion on the KSU performance measures. In order to equalize the level of consensus among faculty members at the two universities we standardized the importance and performance measures. Every feature was divided by the respective standard deviation. Washington Academy of Sciences 49 Standardized importance and performance measures are presented in Table 3. Table 3: Standardized Importance and Performance N Range Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Importance Standardized (GWU) 51 3.84 3.35 7.19 6.0225 1.00 Performance Standardized (GWU) 51 4.12 2.73 6.85 4.6157 1.00 Importance Standardized (KSU) 51 3.25 2.16 5.41 3.9661 1.00 Performance Standardized (KSU) 51 3.36 0.20 3.56 1.7408 1.00 Note that standard deviations are equal to one. This means that the evaluations of importance and performance have the same level of consensus among members of the GWU and KSU departments. GWU faculty members found the features to be more important than the members of the KSU department. GWU has a standardized importance mean 1.51 times higher than KSU. The comparison of performance is even more significant. GWU has a standardized performance mean 2.65 times higher than KSU. This indicates that KSU faculty members rate the performance of their department lower than do GWU faculty members. A visual comparison of GWU and KSU standardized importance and performance means is shown in Figure 1 . We used the QIPM as a tool for determining the priority of the features. A QIPM consists of four quadrants. The northeast quadrant contains features with high importance and high performance. The features in this quadrant do not need corrective action. The features in the northwest quadrant have low importance and high performance. Resources of the department should be transferred from the features of this quadrant to features with high importance and low performance. The third quadrant Spring 2006 50 is southwest. The features in it are characterized by low importance and low performance. Using department resources on the features in this quadrant depends on their importance. The last quadrant is the southeast Figure 1: GWU and KSU Standardized Importance and Performance Means Standardized Importance Standardized Performance Quality improvement Priority Matrix quadrant. These features have high importance and low performance. These features have the highest priority for the department. For these features corrective action is necessary. Hence, we focus our attention on the features in this quadrant. Figure 2 shows the QIPMs for the GWU and KSU departments. The data are non-standardized. Fifteen features are found in the GWU southeast quadrant and nineteen in the KSU southeast quadrant. These numbers suggest that there are many features in both departments that need corrective action. In order to focus our attention on urgent features we changed the borders of the quadrants. See Figure 3. The new borders are average values of the total GWU and KSU features. The joint GWU and KSU importance average is 7.44, and joint GWU and KSU performance average is 4.92. Six features are found in the GWU southeast quadrant: office security, building physical environment, conference room and other space, secretarial support, department strategic plan and computer laboratories. Nine features are found in the KSU southeast quadrant: travel support, projection equipment, salaries, classroom facilities, copiers, building physical environment, accounts payable, computer hardware and teaching assistants. Washington Academy of Sciences Figure 2: GWU and KSU QIPM Importance Standardized (GWU) Importance Standardized (KSU) Figure 3: GWU and KSU QIPM Based on Joint Averages Importance Standardized (GWU) Importance Standardized (KSU) Figure 4 shows the matrices for the GWU and KSU departments based on the standardized values of importance and performance. Standardization is used to achieve the same level of consensus among the members of both departments on the evaluation of importance and Spring 2006 52 performance. However, this approach can be misleading. If the importance and performance scales were reversed, so that 0 was high importance or performance and 10 was low, dividing by standard deviation would raise rather than lower importance and performance scores. To see the impact of standardization compare the coordinates of Figures 3 and 4. Note that the coordinates of the features are shifted from their original positions. The shift in coordinates is proportional to the standard deviations of the respective importance and performance scales. A higher standard deviation leads to a larger downward shift of the corresponding importance or performance features. In Figure 4 not a single feature at KSU has a performance score above the combined performance mean. Standardization by dividing by standard deviation may be more useful when comparing a large number of universities. In this case, comparing just two very different universities, the unstandardized means may be more informative. Figure 4: GWU and KSU QIPM Based on Standardization * •o S4£ c « £ 2 .00 ■ - 0 \ <&>o 1 0 ■o 0 1 > b° 0 O 0! Co 0 0 ] 1 o\ O O 0 9o © © H - 1 - 1 i % ° i — - 1 - Importance Standardized (KSU) In the QIPM of the GWU department most of the features have high evaluations on the importance scale. Only 2 from all 5 1 features have low importance. The rest of the features are in the quadrants with high importance. Among them 12 are features in the southeast quadrant. They have high importance and low performance. A list of these priority features is given in Table 4. Washington Academy of Sciences 53 The main characteristic of the KSU department is the low performance ratings of the features. There are no features with a high standardized performance evaluation. There were 26 priority features in the southeast quadrant. These are listed in Table 5. In general, the priorities differ between the GWU and KSU departments. Only 4 features are found to be in the southeast quadrants for both departments: building physical environment, accounts payable, department strategic plan and department organization to implement its strategic plan. Note that the number of priority features of the KSU department is more than double the number for the GWU department. This result can be explained by the lower average performance evaluations by the KSU faculty members relative to the GWU faculty members. It seems that more work needs to be done to improve performance at KSU than at GWU. Table 4: GWU Features in the Southeast Quadrant GWU Priority Features Standardized Importance Standardized Performance Office security 7.15 3.62 Building/ physical environment 5.99 3.36 Dept, organization to implement its strategic plan 5.67 3.23 Dept, strategic plan 5.97 3.45 Help with writing research proposals 4.71 2.73 Use of continuous improvement methods in the Department 5.13 3.01 Conference room and other space 5.91 3.57 Secretarial support 5.91 3.70 Accounts payable 5.5 3.55 Working papers series 4.22 2.92 Course evaluations 4.47 3.74 Social activities 4.12 3.69 Spring 2006 - Table 5: KSU Features in the Southeast Quadrant KSU Priority Features Standardized Standardized Importance Performance Funds to support research 4.84 0.20 Travel support 4.83 0.20 Office space for faculty 5.41 0.44 Projection equipment 4.69 0.50 Salaries 5.33 0.80 Classroom facilities 5.14 0.89 Copiers 5.03 1.12 Building/ physical environment 5.03 1.24 Accounts payable 4.60 1.24 Computer hardware 4.89 1.50 Consulting opportunities in area 4.98 2.05 Teaching assistants 4.08 1.88 Dept, organization to implement its strategic plan 4.40 2.12 Computer labs 4.88 2.37 Computer software 4.88 2.40 General ability of students 4.92 2.45 Dept, strategic plan 4.82 2.61 Transparency promotion process 4.84 2.88 Opportunities to work with faculty in other departments 4.54 2.80 Library journal collection 5.08 3.27 Library book collection 4.81 3.29 Opportunities to meet local businessmen and managers 4.54 3.17 Coordination with other depts. 4.70 3.32 Dept, head protects faculty from administrative interference 4.46 3.20 A supportive climate in the dept. 4.89 3.56 Opportunities for academic work with Dept, faculty 4.87 3.55 Washington Academy of Sciences 55 Ranking the Priorities These results define the priorities in the two departments, as judged by their respective faculty members. But department resources are limited. In order to highlight the features where corrective action is most needed we ranked the priorities. For this purpose we used two methods: an index method and cluster analysis. In this part we describe the index method. A standardized importance-performance ratio (SIP) is defined as: SIP = — p, where Is is standardized importance and Ps is standardized performance. The higher the value of the index the higher the priority that should be given to that feature. It is important to note that the SIP ratio has one weakness. It gives the same value to features on the same linear distance. For example, a feature with standardized importance 8 and standardized performance 4 has the same priority as a feature with standardized importance 4 and standardized performance 2 (the SIP is 2 in both cases). This is a significant weakness, because one might easily decide that only the first feature has priority. In order to avoid this problem we only ranked features in the southeast quadrant. In Table 6, we present the five features with the highest priority for the GWU faculty members, according to SIP. The KSU department’s top five priority features according to SIP are presented in Table 7. (The features in Tables 4 and 5 are also ranked in order by SIP.) Table 6: Highest Ranking GWU Priorities According to SIP Ratio Rank GWU Priority Features SIP 1 Office security 1.977 2 Building/ physical environment 1.781 3 Dept, organization to implement strategic plan 1.756 4 Dept, strategic plan 1.729 5 Help with writing research proposals 1.724 Spring 2006 56 Table 7: Highest Ranking KSU Priorities According to SIP Ratio Rank KSU Priority Features SIP 1 Funds to support research 24.19 7 2 Travel support 24.17 0 3 Office space for faculty 23 9 4 Projection equipment 9.387 5 Salaries 6.631 The Tabic 6 and 7 rankings show two main differences between the GWU and KSU departments. First, the KSU top priorities are directly related to the improvement of the conditions of the individual faculty members. The GWU top priorities, on the other hand, are mainly concerned with improving the functioning of the department. Second, SIP ratios are much higher in KSU than in GWU. This is a consequence oi the low KSU performance scores. Clustering the Priorities We used cluster analysis in order to sort different priorities into clusters so that the dissimilarity between two priorities is minimized if they belong to the same cluster and maximized otherwise. The measure of dissimilarity is Euclidean distance. This is the geometric distance in the two-dimensional space, in this case the distance between the features in the space importance - performance. It is computed as follows: distance^, p) = ^{i2 )2 +(p2 - ptf Where /, and /?, are importance and performance of the first feature, and i2 and p2 are importance and performance of the second feature. In this method, the distance between two clusters is calculated as Washington Academy of Sciences 57 the weighted average distance between all pairs of scores in the two clusters. We divided the GWU department features into five clusters. The cluster analysis is presented in a working paper by the same authors available at www.gwu.edu/~umpleby/qipm.html. The mean values of each cluster are shown in Table 8. We ranked the clusters according to their SIP ratios. Cluster 1 should have the top priority for the GWU management. This cluster contains only one feature: office security. The next cluster in priority is cluster 2. It contains two features: help with writing research proposals and use of continuous improvement methods in the department. Cluster 3 contains six features: building physical environment, department organization to implement its strategic plan, department strategic plan, conference room and other space, and secretarial support. Figure 5 visually presents the GW priority clusters. Table 8: GWU Cluster Centers Cluster 1 2 3 4 5 Importance Standardized 7 4 5 4 4 (GWU) .15 .92 .83 .22 .3 Performance Standardized 3 2 3 2 3 (GWU) .62 .87 .48 .92 .72 1 1 1 1 1 SIP .97 .71 .67 .44 .15 KSU priorities are divided into seven clusters. The cluster analysis is presented in the working paper available at www.gwu.edu/~umpleby/qipm.html. The mean values of each cluster are shown in Table 9. The highest priority for KSU management should be cluster 1. It contains three features: funds to support research, travel support and projection equipment. Cluster 2 contains three features: office space for faculty, salaries and classroom facilities. The third cluster by priority contains four features: copiers, building physical environment. Spring 2006 58 accounts payable and computer hardware. The KSU clusters are presented in the Figure 6. Figure 5: GWU SE Quadrant Table 9: KSU Cluster Centers Cluster 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Importance Standardized (KSU) 4.79 5.29 4.89 4.24 4.90 4.60 4.87 Performance Standardized (KSU) 0.30 0.71 1.27 2.00 2.38 3.01 3.40 SIP 15.97 7.45 3.85 2.12 2.06 1.53 1.43 Washington Academy of Sciences Figure 6: GWU SE Quadrant A supportive c limrte in the de Importance Standardized (KSU) Conclusion We used the method of a Quality Improvement Priority Matrix combined with statistical methods in order to determine the priorities of the Department of Management Science at The George Washington University and the Department of Management at Kazan State University and to learn how a QIPM can be used to compare two organizations. We found that priorities differ between the GWU and KSU departments. In addition, after standardization of the measures, the number of priorities (features in the SE quadrant) of the KSU department is more than double the number for the GWU department. This is a Spring 2006 60 consequence of the lower performance ratings given by the KSU faculty relative to the GWU faculty. However, the features used in the study were based on discussions in the GWU department. If the list of features had come from both the GWU and KSU departments, the results would have been somewhat different. The paper also experimented with standardization by dividing mean importance and mean performance by the standard deviation to achieve the same level of agreement for the two groups. This procedure seemed to bias the results. So, it should be used carefully. Furthermore, we experimented with clustering the features in the southeast quadrant. This is an alternative means of prioritization to using the importance/ performance ratio. The ratio may be a simpler guide to action. As this and previous papers describing experiments with the QIPM method show, the QIPM is a conceptually simple but surprisingly informative means of prioritizing actions and tracking results. REFERENCES Carlson, M. (1995), “GTE Directories: Customer Focus and Satisfaction,” The Quest for Excellence VII , Official Conference of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award, February 6-8, 1995, Washington, DC. Chapman, C.R. (1995), “Conference Report: Quest for Excellence VII.” Journal of Research of the National Institute of Standards and Technology , Volume 100, Number 3, pp. 287-299. Dubina, I., S. Umpleby (2006), “Agenda Setting and Improvement Monitoring in a University Department,” Twelfth Annual Deming Research Seminar, New York City. Karapetyan, A., S. Umpleby (2002), “How a Quality Improvement Priority Matrix Reveals Change in a University Department,” Russell J. Meyer and David Keplinger (eds.), Perspectives in Higher Education Reform , Volume 12, Alliance of Universities for Democracy, Texas Review Press, pp. 315-322. Melnychenko, O., S. Umpleby (2001), “Using a Quality Improvement Priority Matrix in a University Department,” Customer Satisfaction Management Frontier - VI, Johnson A. Edosomwon (eds.), Fairfax, VA: Quality University Press, pp. 6.1- 6.12. Naoumova, I., S. Umpleby (2002), “Two Methods Useful for Starting a Quality Improvement Program,” in Russell J. Meyer and David Keplinger (eds.), Washington Academy of Sciences 61 Perspectives in Higher Education Reform , Volume 1 1, Alliance of Universities for Democracy, Texas Review Press, pp. 185-193. Naoumova, I., S. Umpleby (2004), “A Comparison of Priorities in an American Academic Department and a Russian Academic Department”, Proceeding of the Annual Meeting of the Alliance of Universities for Democracy, Vilnus, Lithuania. Wellendorf, J.A. ( 1 996), “Armstrong Building Products Operations: Information and Analysis,” The Quest for Excellence VIII , Official Conference of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award, February 4-7, 1996. Spring 2006 AFFI1ATED INSTITUTES The National Institute for Standards and Technology Meadowlark Botanical Gardens The John W. Kluge Center of the Library of Congress Potomac Overlook Regional Park Washington Academy of Sciences 63 THE PHILOSOPHICAL SOCIETY OF WASHINGTON SELECTED MINUTES Ronald O. Hietala, Recording Secretary The Phibdhical Soiet© Washingts is the area’s oldest scientific society, founded in 1871 . The society meets twice a month from October through May in the Powell Auditorium of the Cosmos Club. The meetings, on Friday evenings at 8:30, are free and the public is cordially invited to attend, and to remain after the meetings for refreshments and conversation. Each meeting of the Philosophical Society features a lecture by a distinguished scientist. By tradition, these lectures are summarized by the Recording Secretary in the Minutes of the meeting and are read aloud at the next meeting. Selected Minutes, chosen for broad interest in the subject matter of the lecture, are printed below with the kind permission of the Directors of the Society, the speakers, and the Recording Secretary, Mr. Ronald Hietala. For further information, go to www.philsoc.org. Minutes of the 2189th Meeting March 77, 2005 Lecture: Genetics Testing and Personalized Medicine: Ms Joann Boughman President Robert Hershey called the 2189th meeting to order at 8:18 p.m. on March 11, 2005. The minutes of the 2188th meeting were read and approved. Mr. Hershey introduced the main speaker of the evening, Ms. Joann Boughman of the American Society for Human Genetics. Ms. Boughman spoke on “Genetic Testing and Personalized Medicine, The Genome and a Health Care Revolution.” Ms. Boughman reviewed the recent history of human genetics. In 1990, the Human Genome Project was launched, NIH started the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications Program, and the first gene for breast cancer was mapped. Since then, developments have been rapid and many. They include sequencing of the first bacterial gene in 1995, sequencing of a Spring 2006 64 mouse gene and mapping of the human genome in 1996. Sequencing of the human genome was begun in 1999 and draft sequences appeared in 2000 and were published in 2001. ahead of schedule and under budget. The finished version appeared in 2003. Despite all that progress, we are only entering the genome era. Ms. Boughman believes. We are now beginning to understand that a gene does not cause a disease. It is only one of many factors, some of them environmental. Making use of genetic disease information involves identifying the controlling gene, understanding the basic defect, and developing diagnostics, preventive measures, drug therapies, and genetic therapies. The most important genetic test, she said, is family history. She urges her audiences to collect this history’ soon; she has seen many cases where passage of time has made it very difficult to collect this information. She recommended two web sites that can be helpful with this: www.ashg.org and www.hhs.gov familvhistorv. and she recommended the Surgeon Generafs family history tool. Beyond that, current genetic tests include diagnostic tests, newborn screening, carrier testing, prenatal testing, and predictive testing. Diagnostic testing is often used to confirm or rule out a diagnosis. An example was a 41 -year-old male in an emergency room with chest pain. When the doctor learns the man’s father and paternal uncle had myocardial infarctions at ages 40 and 44. the diagnosis and treatment proceed quickly. This shows how powerful genetic information can be. Infant screening is mandated for a number of diseases and this leads to much more effective follow-up and treatment, as does carrier screening. Prenatal screening is often used to assess the health of a fetus, especially when there is a known genetic risk. Predictive testing indicates presymptomatic and predispositional conditions; presymptomatic meaning the disease will develop if the relevant mutation exists and predispositional meaning the development of symptoms is likely but not certain. On the matter of predictions, she quoted Yogi Berra - “Predictions are tricky. ... especially ones about the future.” Information about the future is one distinct feature of genetic tests. They are also exceptional in how they affect family members and in their complex and probabilistic nature. She sketched two hypothetical scenarios of a woman and her use of genetic information. In one, the woman used the Surgeon General’s family history tool early and as a result had a complete gene sequence determined. Following a preventive diet and exercise regime and taking Washington Academy of Sciences 65 needed treatments promptly, she lived a long and relatively healthy life. In the other scenario, she never heard of the Surgeon General’s family history tool. She declined gene sequencing because her brother had lost his health insurance because of genetic information. She ate an unhealthy diet, gained weight and developed high blood pressure. She began a drug treatment for the hypertension but developed a hypersensitivity reaction and stopped taking it. At 50, she developed pain in her left arm. Her M.D., unaware of her risk, diagnosed it as musculoskeletal and prescribed rest. The next day she was back in the ER in cardiogenic shock. Lack of genetic information prevented quick choice of optimal treatment. She died in the emergency room. Anticipating some of the possibilities suggested by these two scenarios, 37 states have made laws prohibiting discrimination in health insurance or employment based on genetic information. The U.S. . Senate passed a similar bill by 98 - 0. A bill has been introduced in the House. Ms. Boughman made some predictions for the future of genomics in medicine. She believes that primary care providers will practice genetic medicine, that cancer therapies will be targeted to the specific types of tumors, that individualized pharmacogenomic treatments will become common, and that there will be interventions available that will use targeted genetic switches. She pointed out, however, that the effectiveness of genetic treatment will depend on accurate transmission of complex and predictive accurate information and on understanding how to act on that information. She briefly discussed stem cells. There are three types - adult, cord blood, and embryonic stem cells. Embryonic cells, which appear to have the most promise, are grown by taking the inner cell mass out of a blastocyst and putting those cells in a culture to reproduce. There are more than 400,000 blastocysts in freezers that are not going to be used otherwise. However, federal funds cannot be used on stem cells outside the permitted lines. Another possibility is to remove the nucleus from an egg and replace the nucleus with a somatic cell to stimulate division to produce stem cells that will reproduce in a culture. Ms. Boughman offered to answer questions. A hardy Finn from the Gulf of Bothnia, having survived knife fights and wolf attacks, remains concerned about prostate cancer. Is there a test for it, he asked? Not a specific one, Ms. Boughman said. What are the non-genetic diseases? Too numerous to count. Viral and bacterial infections, certainly, and AIDS. She mentioned, however, that some people seem to be naturally resistant to AIDS, which is a fascinating Spring 2006 66 clue to how it might be treated. One person asked if it is true that there are about 100,000 genes and that thousands of them do nothing. Although it once was thought there were 80,000 to 100,000 genes, it now appears tb~re are about 25,000, which is interesting, because some other species have far more. The so- called unused genes are important as place-holders and it appears they are somehow otherwise very important. They are like junk, not like garbage. Garbage is thrown out, junk is put in the attic. The chimpanzee and human are 98 percent alike in their genes. Perhaps the spacing will explain some of the differences. Mr. Hershey announced the next meeting and made the parking announcement. He invited visitors to join the Society, and then adjourned the 2189th meeting at 9:35 to the social hour. Attendance: 33 Weather: Misty, occasional sprinkles Temperature: 5 C. Respectfully submitted, Ronald O. Hietala, Recording Secretary © 2005 Ronald O. Hietala Minutes of the 21 91st Meeting April 8, 2005 Lecture: Nuclear Magnetic Resonance-based Quantum Computing: Ms Karen Sauer President Robert Hershey called the 2191st meeting of the Philosophical Society of Washington to order in the Powell Auditorium of the Cosmos Club at 8:20 p.m. on April 8, 2005. The minutes of the 2190th meeting were read by William Saalbach, acting recording secretary, and approved. This was the occasion of the David Franklin Bleil Memoria* ‘ .* cture in Physics, sponsored by David Frederick Bleil. Mr. Hershey introduced the speaker, Ms. Karen Sauer of George Mason University. Ms. Sauer spoke on “Nuclear Magnetic Resonance- based Quantum Computing.” Why study quantum computing? Ms. Sauer reminded us of Moore’s law, which states that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 1 8 months. The inside story says that chip development is not the controlling factor; it is that 18 months must pass before introducing a new product Washington Academy of Sciences 67 which will infuriate the existing customers. No matter which is closer to the truth, current computer architecture does limit the effectiveness of computing. There would seem to be two major advantages of a quantum computer, large searches and factoring large numbers. Using quantum computing, the effort of finding a needle in a haystack of N elements increases with the square root of N instead of N. Finding a certain word for a crossword puzzle that would take a conventional computer 500,000 steps would take a quantum computer 1 000 steps. Factoring would also be much faster. Using Shor’s factoring algorithm, factoring would be exponentially faster than the best known classical algorithm, which would have major implications for cryptosystems. The building block of quantum computing is called the qubit instead of a bit. A bit can represent any intersection of two lines; a qubit can represent any point of a solid. It can be a combination of a 1 -state and a 0- state, or a number of them. N qubits can stand for 2N power at once. A mere 50 qubits can represent every binary number from zero to more than a trillion, simultaneously. The readout, however, would be very long. Qubits are also unique by their entangled state. In classical computing architecture, two bits can be 00, 01, 10, or 11. The value of one bit does not affect another. In quantum computing, it does, because of the way the states of quantum factors affect others. Ms. Sauer reviewed the experimentation to date. Nuclear magnetic resonance computation has been accomplished with seven cubits. An ion- trap system has been developed to control and read three qubits. Using superconducting electronics, computation has been accomplished with two qubits. A quantum dot system, using the spin of the electrons, has been used in computing with one cubit. Almost any interaction with the environment collapses the quantum state into a very definite state, or decoherence, and calculation stops. Therefore, the computer must be isolated from the environment, which makes it difficult to control and read the quantum states. A magnetic nucleus in a magnetic field behaves like a gyroscope and precesses about the field. The magnetic moment precesses in proportion to the field, and this has led to great concern and competition in the size of the superconducting magnets used. They are now working with magnets of 1 1 .7 tesla. Fundamentally, the way an NMR (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance) computer works is this: a magnetic field is used to align the magnetic Spring 2006 68 moments. Radio-frequency pulses at the Larmor frequency tip the magnetic moments out of balance. The transverse then rotates at the Larmor frequency and is detected by a coil using Faraday’s law. The coil is part of a “tuned” circuit that is sensitive to a limited band of frequencies. The ability of the pulses to reverse spins has given NMR computing the boost to seven qubits. Isolating the computers is done by dissolving the molecules in a liquid. The effect of the magnetic field of one nucleus on another is largely averaged away in a liquid. The major problems with NMR Quant computing are that: • It is best done on single molecule, but NMR needs 108 molecules to see the signal. The solution is to use a large number of molecules and read out a collective answer. • NMR is too weak to determine the outcome and cause the state’s collapse into specific states for each molecule. However, it is often good enough to see an NMR signal that represents the average over all the molecules. • The equilibrium states of the molecules’ nuclear spins are nearly random, with only a relative few pointing in the right direction. The solution is to use temporal, spatial, or logical labeling methods to single out the small fraction that do represent the desired initial state. These methods produce “pseudo-pure” states, where the readout shows what is designed even though most of the mix does not. Ms. Sauer predicts that the field will turn to a solid instead of a liquid form for the chemicals. Liquid state NMR computers will likely be limited to about 10 to 20 qubits; 50 to 300 are needed. She believes quantum computing has enormous potential, particularly for large-scale searches and factorization of large numbers. She recognizes that actual quantum computing is far behind current theory, but she says NMR has provided a good test bed for quantum computing, with its precise control of magnetic moments. Other quantum computers with better scalability should benefit from the ideas, concepts and solutions that NMR experiments have yielded. Ms. Sauer offered to answer questions. One questioner observed that the systems she described do not seem fast. They won’t do traditional calculations well, she said, but that’s not a fair comparison. They will do different calculations. How do you input a number? someone asked. We do not know how to put a number in a molecule. In solids, this may not be the problem it Washington Academy of Sciences 69 seems to be now. Why can’t the same problems be put on a classical computer? another asked. Because a quantum mechanical state can mean a numericity of states. Ms. Sauer admitted there is no advantage to quantum computing currently. There is no problem the current machinery can’t do better. It is the potential that is great. Mr. Hershey encouraged visitors to join the Society. He announced the next meeting and made the parking announcement. He invited everyone to stay for the social hour. Finally, he adjourned the 2191st meeting at 9:50 p.m. Attendance: 50 Weather: Moist and mild Temperature: 17 C. Respectfully submitted, Ronald O. Hietala, Recording Secretary © 2005 Ronald O. Hietala Minutes of the 2192nd Meeting April 22, 1005 Lecture: Smallpox and Ebola Viruses as Agents Of Bioterrorism: Mr. Peter Jahrling President Robert Hershey called the 2192nd meeting of the Philosophical Society of Washington to order in the Powell Auditorium of the Cosmos Club at 8:16 p.m. April 22, 2005. The minutes of the 2191st meeting were read and approved. Mr. Hershey introduced the speaker of the evening, Mr. Peter Jahrling. Mr. Jahrling is chief scientist of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health. Mr. Jahrling spoke on “Smallpox and Ebola Viruses as Agents of Bioterrorism.” Emerging infections arise, Mr. Jahrling said, by unnatural means. New organisms have always arisen or evolved as a result of adaptation or environmental pressures. New pressures come from the extension of civil engineering into new geography, international travel, political instability, natural disasters (often involving sanitation), war and famine and displaced persons that result from them, and intentional release. Only the last is the action of terrorists. The reality of bioterrorism did not sink in Spring 2006 70 until anthrax attacks of 2001. In the past 10-15 years, new viruses that have broken out include the - Hantavirus Outbreaks in the U.S. - Ebola-related Reston Filovirus - Andes Virus - Argentina - Ebola - Ivory Coast, Zaire, C^bon, Uganda, Sudan - SARS - China, Canada, (wo wide?) - Monkeypox, almost indistinguishable from smallpox - Marburg Virus (Angola) - presently ongoing - Influenza H5N 1 (poised to emerge) Mr. Jahrling said he had never intended to work with ebola. There is no treatment for it, it is fatal, and results in a gruesome death. He gave several examples of how tricky and dangerous it is to work with these viruses. One of them was the dying golden tamarins at the National Zoo. It turned out to be a virus which was being transmitted to the tamarins by the baby mice the caretaker was feeding them. The tamarins were being bred and some of the infected ones had been scheduled to be shipped to Brazil. It was a narrow escape that they were not. Monkeypox came to the United States in a shipment of Giant Gambian rats. Here they were cohoused with prairie dogs, and the prairie dogs were sold as pets in the Midwest. Humans were infected by prairie dog bites. A disturbing fact was that it was extant in the country for about 30 days, even though the symptoms look very much like smallpox, before it was reported to appropriate authorities. It infected 30 people in 15 states. It was just fortunate that it happened to be a weak strain of the monkeypox virus. Smallpox was declared dead in 1980. The campaign to defeat it was successful because it has no natural reservoir; it has only one natural host, humans. Its last vestiges were wiped out in Africa by identifying cases and then sending in teams to vaccinate everyone the infected person came in contact with. At that time, however, the Soviet Union was manufacturing it. They were making 20 tons of smallpox every six months. They were planning to put it in the nose cones of missiles to wipe out any survivors of a nuclear war. That was Russian military doctrine. They say they don’t do it any more, and Mr. Jahrling believes that, but we can only wonder if all that material has been effectively destroyed, although the evidence he has seen has not been very alarming. They also produced anthrax, and an accidental Washington Academy of Sciences 71 release of that killed 80 people downstream. There was an outbreak of smallpox in Kazakhstan in 1971. It originated in the Russian smallpox factory on an island in the Aral Sea. The woman who contracted it had been vaccinated, but for some reason the vaccination was ineffective. He described a planning exercise called “Dark Winter.” It assumes 3000 people arc exposed to smallpox in simultaneous attacks on three shopping centers in different states. Since 42% of the population have never been vaccinated, and assuming that each case exposes ten others and that only 15 million doses of vaccine are available, by the fourth generation of the disease, in nine weeks, three million people would have caught smallpox and one million would have died. The planning exercise demonstrated two important points: the lack of vaccines limits management options in dealing with diseases, and the United States lacks the resources to deal with a mass outbreak of smallpox, or indeed any contagious bioterrorism agent. As an interim policy, the best they could do is targeted vaccination of contacts. Asymptomatic contacts would be monitored but not isolated. Any delay in vaccination would increase mortality greatly. Smallpox, he concludes, is a very credible agent of terrorism. Ring vaccination would be only a partial solution to a large or multi-centered attack. Mass vaccination, it appears, works better than targeted vaccination, largely because of the time required to find the people at risk. There is surprisingly little material around to show what smallpox looks like. They do have a preserved human arm and, of course, there are old pictures. They are working to develop an animal model of the disease. People in moon suits have infected monkeys with variola in labs of the Centers for Disease Control. Another model under development is infection of monkeys with monkeypox virus. It looks much like smallpox and its spread appears to be very similar. It appears that infected monkeys are not contagious until they are obviously sick. They did a study of the effectiveness of cidofovir against variola. A massive variola exposure resulted in death for all the controls. Three of the six treated animals survived, but they were the ones treated at 24 hours after infection. The three treated at 12 hours all died. An aerosol exposure of the monkeys was not very effective. It takes too much variola material to infect monkeys through the air. He showed some pictures of monkeys with variola and of humans with smallpox. Both are pretty scary. His description was “Really ugly.” Spring 2006 72 The infection produces nasty, boil-like sores all over, inside and out. Mr. Jahrling concluded that effective countermeasures against smallpox terrorism can be developed through research by an international community of scientists. They will presumably include better vaccines, antiviral drugs, and methods to distribute and use them. Mr. Hershey made the usual announcements. Finally, at 9:46 p.m., he adjourned the 2192nd meeting to the social hour. Attendance: 20 Weather: Misty to sprinkly Temperature: 12 C. Respectfully submitted, Ronald O. Hietala, Recording secretary © 2005 Ronald O. Hietala Minutes of the 2194th Meeting September 9, 2005 Lecture: Life in the Age of Risk Management Ms. Kimberly M. Thompson President Robert Hershey called the 2194th meeting to order at 8: 17 p.m. on September 9, 2005. The minutes of the 2192nd meeting were read and approved. Mr. Hershey introduced the speaker of the evening, Ms. Kimberly M. Thompson of the Harvard School of Public Health, where she is Associate Professor of Risk Analysis and Decision Science and Director of the Kids Risk Project. Ms. Thompson observed that it was a pleasure to be speaking in the John Wesley Powell room; she attended John Wesley Powell High School in Mesa, Arizona, where her interest in science was kindled. Ms. Thompson spoke on “Life in the Age of Risk Management” and delighted the audience with cartoons from her book called Risk In Perspective : Insight and Humor in the Age of Risk Management. She posed a question of whether we are living in a state of fear, and quoted several observations of Michael Crichton, who said that “... all reality is media reality,” and that the politico-legal-media complex is dedicated to promoting fear. Ms. Thompson said we are living in a time when life is full of risks, choices often involve tough trade-offs, and good data and risk Washington Academy of Sciences 73 analysis play a critical role in decisions, both individual and collective. These are the characteristics of the age of risk management. At this time, we have the benefits of enormous advancements in science and technology. We have high-quality information about risks, a large spectrum of choices, computational tools, and better understanding of problems and solutions. Success still depends on our ability to understand and communicate how things work and to effectively manage variability and uncertainty. There is great good news about risks. Since 1 900, life expectancy has gone from less than 50 years to over 75. The big questions about risks are, which risks are big and which are small, what can and should we do about them, are we investing the right resources and spending wisely, what data do we need, how do we deal with challenges of scale, and how do we effectively communicate? Communication regarding risks especially needs our attention. Risk analysis uses mathematical models to characterize information - what can happen, how likely is it, and if it happens, what are the consequences? The models are used to evaluate options and weigh trade-offs - what can we do, what happens if we do it, what is the best option? Finally, we need to communicate risk information. She distinguished variability from uncertainty. Variability is the degree of heterogeneity or variability in a population. Uncertainty is ignorance about a poorly characterized phenomenon. She discussed three examples of risk problems - the effectiveness of airbags in cars, the mortality risk to people on the ground from crashing airplanes, and the dynamics of managing the risks of polio. The air bag question had its roots in the concern about the 40,000 deaths a year in car crashes. There was a time, a short time, when a car would not start if the seat belt was not fastened. People did not like that, and it did not last long. After that, rates of seat belt use were poor, and interest in a passive method developed. This interest led to several errors related to estimating the benefits of airbags. The fact that airbags would kill people was overlooked. A compliance test was needed to show whether airbags worked, and the standard involved in the test led to ignoring variability in human physique and behavior. Not everyone is a 50th percentile male and not everyone sits still in the seat facing forward all the time, like a dummy. Also, the early experience with seat belts led to pessimism regarding seat belt use, and estimates of the effectiveness of airbags inadvertently included people whose outcomes should have been credited to seat belts. Spring 2006 74 From this several insights were drawn. Technologies perform differently in controlled versus uncontrolled settings. Efforts should be made to quantify the risks of safety technologies. Distributional issues should be examined. We need to guard against overconfidence and we need to be aware of political realities. It is an irony that airbags are an engineering solution to a behavioral problem and that the result of children being killed by airbags necessitates a new behavioral solution of putting kids in the back. However, we have learned that both the engineering and the behavior matter. She turned to the problem of airplanes crashing on people on the ground. A paper in 1992 indicated the risk of this was four in a million over a lifetime, which is above the one in a million threshold used to identify actionable risks. A closer look at the data now reveals some interesting facts. The data show that the rates of accidents have gone down substantially, and more importantly that the risks differ greatly for people near and far from airports. The risk is hundreds of times higher close to major airports. This leads to very different ideas about what should be done about the risk. It also shows that, for most of us, the risk is negligible. The story about polio is one of a brilliant success of vaccines. Polio paralysis cases in the U.S. peaked in 1952 at over 21,000 cases. Ms. Thompson mentioned that we recently celebrated 50 years of polio vaccine and reminded the audience about the major headlines on April 12, 1955 announcing the effectiveness and safety of the vaccine. The decrease in the disease after that was dramatic, and for some time now we have been within striking distance of eradication. Oral vaccine, a weakened -virus vaccine, causes polio at a very low rate. In 1979, wild cases of polio virtually disappeared. In the late 1990s, the U.S. decided the risk of polio from oral vaccine was unacceptable and we went back to using the killed-virus, injectable vaccine. Since the oral vaccine is a live virus that spreads through populations and is easier to administer, it is the preferred method if we want to eradicate polio. However, what to do after successful eradication remains a difficult choice. Ms. Thompson discussed how the risks and concerns changed over time. Sometimes choices get tougher as the original problem is reduced. The devil is in the details. The best options for some people will not be the best for others. In concluding, Ms. Thompson emphasized the need for good Washington Academy of Sciences 75 science to realize the potential of risk analysis and get the most out of life in the age of risk management. Mr. Hershey announced the next meeting, invited people to apply for membership in the Society, and invited everyone to enjoy the social hour. He adjourned the 2194th meeting at 9:54 p.m. to the social hour. Attendance: 38 Weather: Clear, mild, beautiful Temperature: 15C. Respectfully submitted, Ronald O. Hietala, Recording Secretary Minutes of the 2198th Meeting December 10, 2005 Lecture: Einstein ’s Warped Universe Mr. Ted Jacobson President Robert Hershey called the 2198 meeting to order at 8:20 p.m., on December 10, 2005. The minutes of the 2197th meeting were read and approved. Mr. Hershey then introduced the speaker of the evening, Mr. Ted Jacobson of the University of Maryland. Mr. Jacobson spoke on “Einstein’s Warped Universe.” “I’m glad to have the opportunity to tell you some things about Einstein’s warped universe,” Mr. Jacobson began. He noted that we are in the anniversary of Einstein’s “miraculous year,” 1905, in which he published four seminal papers that spanned all of the revolutions of modem physics of that time. One introduced the idea of photons and the particle nature of light. Another gave calculations of Brownian motion, which helped to establish the atomic nature of matter. Third, he introduced the idea of mass as not independent of energy, but as an aspect of energy. And fourth, he showed that simultaneity and space and time measurements depend on the motion of the observer. Einstein was 26 at the time and a clerk in a patent office. He could not get an academic job, Mr. Jacobson joked. Einstein did say that “a practical profession is a salvation for a man of my type. An academic career compels a young man to scientific production, and only strong characters can resist the temptation of superficial analysis.” Spring 2006 76 The 1905 work on time and space is called special relativity. In it, time, space, and mass are taken as not absolute. This work omits the whole matter of gravity. It wasn’t until 1915 that he incorporated gravity and inertia. He conceived gravity as a warping of time and space. What does it mean to say that space and time are not absolute? In 1905, Einstein had inherited Maxwell’s theory of electrodynamics and Newton’s theory of mechanics. Neither of them implied a preferred state of rest. Maxwell’s theory did predict that light and electromagnetic waves propagate at a definite speed. Light from a flashlight travels at the same speed regardless of whether the flashlight moves. Einstein saw that therefore we cannot attach any absolute signification to the concept of simultaneity. Consider a flash of light in a box. If the flash originates in the middle of the box, it reaches both ends at the same time, as reckoned by an observer at rest with respect to the box. If another observer is running toward the box, he sees the box approaching him, so he sees the light reach the back end before it reaches the front end. Thus, a time ordering between two events can depend on who is observing. This is the relativity of simultaneity. One implication of this relativity is that time elapsed between two events depends on the path in spacetime that connects them. One who travels a straight line from one point to another might age, say, fifty years. One who visits a distant intermediate point on the interim ages less, and the difference is relative to the additional distance traveled. The terms time and space are not used. Instead, they use timelike and spacelike, because what it means to remain at “the same point of space” depends on the observer. Newton conceived gravity as a universal force, an attraction of masses to each other. It explained both the falling of an apple and the orbit of the planets around the sun. Einstein said he was sitting in the patent office in Bern when all of a sudden a thought occurred to him: If a person falls freely, he won’t feel his own weight. He was startled. This simple thought made a deep impression on him. Then he had the happiest thought of his life, that a gravitational field has only a relative existence. To illustrate Einstein’s happy thought, Mr. Jacobson showed a picture of a dancer in an airplane following a parabolic free-fall arc, dancing in the air in a space that was static relative to the confines of the Washington Academy of Sciences 77 airplane and feeling none of the weight of Newton’s force. She seemed to be having a good time. Gravity in Einstein’s conception is the curvature of spacetime. A freely falling object follows a straight line in spacetime. When an apple falls, what really happens is that the apple and the earth approach each other. Their initially parallel paths in spacetime do not remain parallel, because the spacetime is curved. This is analogous to two lines of longitude on the earth that start out parallel at the equator, yet converge as they proceed north towards the pole. This convergence is due to the curvature of the surface of the earth, while the approach of a falling apple and the earth is due to curvature of spacetime. He described a little of how the global positioning system works. The earth devices have clocks on them. Locations are determined by comparing the times of the origin of the different signals. These times are measurably affected by relativity, due to both the motion of the clocks and the gravitational time dilation effect: a higher clock runs more quickly than a lower one. Gravity bends light. Mr. Jacobson showed some pictures of a galaxy viewed through the gravitational lens of another galaxy. Rings of light from the distant object that appear around the nearer object are called Einstein rings. Actually, you usually see only arcs, not complete rings. In some cases, the time difference between two paths of light from the same source is over a year. To bring the matter closer, he showed a picture of the Smithsonian castle and another picture of it as it might appear through a gravitational lens, as if a black hole were between the camera and the castle. Parts of the building seemed to bend around and enclose parts of the clouds behind it. He showed a picture of an antenna in Puerto Rico. This instrument first detected signals from a binary pulsar in 1974. The binary has an orbit period of eight hours and a pulse period of 59 ms. Such systems emit gravitational waves. Gravitational waves carry energy, the orbits arc reduced, and the orbit period has been observed since 1974 to decrease at the predicted rate. As another approach, there is an attempt underway to measure gravitational waves directly using very-long-baseline laser interferometry. Instruments have been placed far apart on the earth, one in the state of Washington, one in Louisiana. Other interferometers elsewhere on earth are also being used, and eventually interferometers in space are planned. As yet, no detection has been achieved. Spring 2006 78 Then he took up some other questions about the universe. Is it closed or open? Is it curved or flat? How did it begin? Does it expand forever? What about the beginning of time? What is time like inside a black hole? He offered some speculations on these questions. Mr. Jacobson offered to answer questions from the audience. In response to questions, he noted that Einstein made gravity equal to the curvature of spacetime, which means that gravity is the warping of inertia. Someone complained that he would never understand the spacetime thing. Where does it get started? How do you measure time without an instrument? You can’t, Jacobson said. Time is what a clock measures. Is the cosmos as a whole warped? Yes, it is. Does the 3-dimensional universe have an analog in a 2 dimensional universe? Yes, this is an outgrowth of string theory. It is a theory in two dimensions that has no gravity. Electromagnetic waves are harnessed for useful purposes, is anything like that possible for gravitational waves? Yes, for astronomy. Could we generate them? Anything we can generate would be extremely weak. He guessed detecting waves we have generated won’t happen in the next 50 years. The annual business meeting was held (the business records are kept by the corresponding secretary). Mr. Hershey announced the next lecture and invited guests to join the Society. Finally, he made the parking announcement, invited everyone to enjoy the social hour, and at 9:50 p.m., adjourned the 2197th meeting. Attendance: 71 Weather: Unremarkable Temperature: 6 C. Respectfully submitted, Ronald O. Hietala, Recording Secretary © 2005 Ronald O. Hietala Washington Academy of Sciences 79 MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY NEWS The Marine Techndy Soiety has published MTS Journal: Promoting Lifelong Ocean Education (Winter 2005/2006). This issue of the quarterly, peer-reviewed journal describes solutions to the problem of ocean literacy, and includes information on successful programs that are currently promoting learning. According to the issue's editor, Blanche W. Meeson, of Oceans US and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), "To my knowledge this is a first: an issue of a major science and technology society's signature journal dedicated to education." MTS has developed an Experts Directory and a Speakers Bureau, both of which are searchable databases on the MTS Web site at www.mtsociety.org. The directories are available to anyone wishing to find marine technologists and engineers for speaking engagements, collaborations, general questions, etc. Justin Manley is the new editor of the MTS Journal. As editor, Manley has three goals: to continue to improve the Journal's quality; to capitalize on the diverse interests of MTS as a strength so as to provide a unique perspective on the intersection of science/technology, business and policy; and to frame MTS and public discussion of key issues, such as ocean energy and the role of advanced technology in the oceans. Manley is a senior engineer at Battelle. He chairs both the National Atmospheric and Space Administration's Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Working Group and the MTS AUV Professional Committee. Manley replaces outgoing editor Dan Walker, senior program officer of the National Research Council. In April, MTS sponsored the online Pre-Engineering Times, a publication of JETS, which works to increase interest and awareness of engineering and technology-based careers. As sponsor, MTS provided two articles to the publication, one aimed at young people who might be interested in focusing their engineering interest in the marine sciences and another on the society-sponsored student outreach programs and scholarships. The MTS-sponsored Oceans 2006 Conference is scheduled for September 18-21 in Boston. The conference plans to highlight several "hot Spring 2006 80 topic" areas, including homeland security applications, tsunami early- warning systems, autonomous underwater vehicle/unmanned undersea vehicle/glider technology, distributed sensors and networks, tracking and data fusion, non-acoustic sensing and imaging, integrated ocean observatories, marine mammal classification, Artie Ocean science, optical properties of water, aquaculture engineering and marine archaeology. For more information, visit www.oceans06mtsieeeboston.org. The MTS-sponsored Dynamic Positioning Conference 2006 is scheduled for October 17-18 in Houston, Texas. The annual DP conference attracts leading DP professionals from around the world. Check the Web site to find out when registration will begin. Exhibitors are encouraged to reserve space now, since space is limited. For more information, visit www.dynamic-positioning.com. The MTS-sponsored Underwater Intervention 2007 is scheduled for January 30-February 1, in New Orleans, La. Prospective speakers are invited to submit proposals to the conference in one of the following areas: commercial diving, ROVs, AUVs, sonar, acoustics, underwater inspections, underwater construction/repairs, training/education, legal and regulatory, safety issues, certification, underwater cutting/welding, equipment maintenance, bid specifications and military issues. Deadline for abstract submission is July 15, 2006, and final papers are due December 15, 2006. The conference draws over 2,000 attendees — purchasing agents, project managers, engineers, operations managers, owners, directors and many other key decision makers from the United States and 30 other countries. For more information, visit www.underwaterintervention.com. MTS members participated in the Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education (CORE) Public Policy Forum in Washington, D.C., in March. Among those speaking was Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher. Andrew Clark participated in a panel discussion on Ocean Observing Systems. Richard Spinrad and Shirley Pomponi were part of a panel discussion on Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy. MTS is one of the hosts of the Conference on Ocean Literacy (CoOL), June 7-8, at the Ronald Regan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, D.C. The two-day forum will bring together members of government, education, textbook publishing, industry, science centers, non-profits and other interested entities to discuss ocean literacy Washington Academy of Sciences 81 and the challenges and opportunities for educating the public to make informed, responsible decisions about the ocean and its resources. The conference chair is MTS member Sharon Walker. MTS member Shirley Pomponi has been appointed to the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council. The council will develop priorities for ocean and coastal research, and establish a statewide ocean research plan. The group will also coordinate public and private ocean research for more effective coastal management. MTS member JDR Cable Systems has appointed John R. Havey as technical sales manager of the JDR Oil and Gas Division, North America. The announcement was made by MTS member Paul Gahm, executive vice president of sales and marketing, JDR Oil and Gas Division. Formerly sales manager at Dril-Quip, Havey is a 30-year veteran in the offshore oil and gas industry. The Supervisory Board of MTS member INTEC Engineering and Heerema Holding have named Bruce Crager to be chief executive officer of INTEC Engineering based in Houston. Crager brings more than 30 years of experience in the oil and gas industry. MTS member Eric Steimlc of the University of South Florida-St. Petersburg, developed a radio-controlled guided surface vehicle (GSV) that carried a D1DSON imagining sonar and a hydrophone listening device to eavesdrop on the spawning sounds of black drum fish. The fish raise a loud chorus when they spawn. The instrumentation helped to determine whether the sound production was matched by real results— tight clusters of newly fertilized fish eggs. MTS member Teledyne RD Instruments announced the appointment of William Kikendall as general manager. Kikendall has served as general manager of Teledyne Geophysical Instruments, Houston, Texas, for the past six years and will now oversee operations at both Teledyne Technologies' facilities. Jill Zande is the new chair of the Monterey Section of the Marine Technology Society. Zande is outreach director and ROV Competition coordinator of the MATE Center in Monterey, Calif. MTS member John Moore moderated a panel discussion on American Security Interests and the Law of the Sea at a Senate appropriations hearing in Washington, D.C., in April. Moore is the director of the Center for Oceans Law and Policy at the University of Spring 2006 82 Virginia School of Law. Among the panelists contributing to the discussion was MTS member Douglas Burnett, an international law adviser and a partner with Holland and Knight, LLP. MTS member William Kuperman of the University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography is on the National Research Council- approved Committee to Review the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (JSOST) Ocean Research Priorities Plan. MTS member Dr. Reginald Beach has served as the Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education (CORE) director of research for the last four years and is leaving to become the chief scientist for the Ocean Exploration program at NOAA. Offshore survey company and MTS member Fugro Chance recently promoted Greg Pilgrim to operations manger. Marine Construction Survey in Houston, Texas. The Marine Construction Survey Group develops innovative survey methods and customized procedures for deepwater construction projects. MTS was a signatory to letters sent to U.S. Senate and House appropriations subcommittees on Science, State, Justice and Related Agencies encouraging them to provide NOAA with an appropriation of $4.5 billion in fiscal year 2007. "NOAA is critical to protecting ou* ocean resources, coastal communities and economy. In fact, weather and nate sensitive industries account for about one-third of the Nation’s GDP. An investment of $4.5 billion averages out to $15 per person annually," the letters stated, adding that this "small amount" provides an enormous amount of information, research and local community assistance. "A better understanding of the oceans not only benefits coastal communities. In fact, economists have estimated that altering planting decisions based on improved El Nino and La Nina forecasts would save U.S. farmers $265- $300 million." Susan M. Branting Communications Manager, MTS Washington Academy of Sciences DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America Paul Arveson American/Intemational Association of Dental Research J. Terrell Hoffeld American Association of Physics Teachers Frank R. Haig, S .J. American Ceramics Society VACANT American Fisheries Society Ramona Schreiber American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics David W. Brandt American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Michael Greeley American Meteorological Society Kenneth Carey American Nuclear Society Steven Arndt American Phytopathological Society Kenneth L. Deahl American Society for Cybernetics Stuart Umpleby American Society for Microbiology VACANT American Society of Civil Engineers Kimberly Hughes American Society of Mechanical Engineers Daniel J. Vavrick American Society of Plant Physiology Mark Holland Anthropological Society of Washington Marilyn London ASM International Toni Marechaux Association for Women in Science (AWIS) Emanuela Appetiti Association for Computing Machinery Lee Ohringer Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation F. Douglas Witherspoon Association of Information Technology Professionals Barbara Saffanek Biological Society of Washington VACANT Botanical Society of Washington Alain Touwaide Chemical Society of Washington James J. Zwolenik District of Columbia Institute of Chemists James J. Zwolenik District of Columbia Psychology Association David Williams Eastern Sociological Society Ronald W. Mandersheid Electrochemical Society Robert L. Ruedisueli Entomological Society of Washington F. Christian Thompson Geological Society of Washington Bob Schneider Historical Society of Washington, DC VACANT History of Medicine Society Alain Touwaide Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Douglas Griffith Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Sajjad Durrani Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Murty Polavarapu Institute of Food Technologies Isabel Walls Institute of Industrial Engineers Neal F.Schmeidler Instrument Society of America Hank Hegner Marine Technology Society Judith T. Krauthamer Mathematical Association of America Sharon K. Hauge Medical Society of the District of Columbia Duane Taylor National Capital Astronomers Jay H. Miller National Geographic Society VACANT Optical Society of America Jim Cole Pest Science Society of America VACANT Philosophical Society of Washington Vary T. Coates Society of American Foresters G. Foster Society of American Military Engineers VACANT Society of Experimental Biology and Medicine Darren Roesch Society of Manufacturing Engineers VACANT Soil and Water Conservation Societyw Bill Boyer Technology Transfer Society Clifford Lanham Washington Evolutionary Systems Society Jerry L.R. Chandler Washington History of Science Club Albert G. Gluckman Washington Chapter of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science Russell R. Vane III Washington Paint Technology Group VACANT Washington Society of Engineers Alvin Reiner Washington Statistical Society Michael P. Cohen World Future Society Diane Pickar Washington Academy of Sciences Room 637 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 Return Postage Guaranteed ERNST MAYR LIBRARY MUSEUM COMP ZOOLOGY HARVARD UNIVERSITY 26 OXFORD ST CAMBRIDGE. MA 02138-2902 MEDIA MAIL U.S. POSTAGE PAID PERMIT 1502 MERR1FIELD. VA MCZ LIBRARY OCT 1 1 2006 HARVARD UNIVERSITY Volume 92 Number 2 Summer 2006 Journal of the WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Contents Instructions for Authors . i Incoming President’s Message . ii Affiliated Institutions . iv William T. Franz, Bottle Rockets, Teacups and the Real World . 1 Carl E. Mungan, Relative Speeds of Interacting Astronomical Bodies . 7 Colin F. Mackenzie and Yan Xiao, Videos of Emergency Care Show Challenges for Patient Safety . 15 M. Sue Bogner, It’s Not Who in 98,000 Medical Error Deaths, It’s What . 29 Gerald P. Krueger, Fatigue, Drowsy Decision-Making and Medical Error: Issues of Quality Health Care . 41 Frank R. Haig, S.J. and Peg Kay, The Role of Academies of Science in the Critical Examination of New Ideas: Looking at Gaia . 61 Affiliated Societies . Inside back cover ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC ^asJjtngton Ucabemp of ^cicntcs! Founded in 1898 Board of Managers Elected Officers President William Boyer President Elect Alain Towaide Treasurer Harvey Freeman Secretary James Cole Vice President, Administration Rex Klopfenstein Vice President, Membership Thomas Meylan Vice President, Junior Academy Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliated Societies Mark Holland Members at Large Sethanne Howard Donna Dean Frank Haig, S .J. Jodi Wesemann Vary Coates Peg Kay Past President: F. Douglas Witherspoon AFFILIATED SOCIETY DELEGATES: Shown on back cover Editor of the Journal Vary T. Coates Associate Editors: Alain Touwaide Sethanne Howard Academy Office Washington Academy of Sciences Room 63 1 The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences The Journal is the official organ of the Academy. It publishes articles on science policy, the history of science, critical reviews, original science research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest to its members. It is published quarterly. The last issue of the year contains a directory of the current membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Members, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal free of charge. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis, payable in advance. Payment must be made in U.S. currency at the following rates. US and Canada . $25.00 Other Countries . 30.00 Single Copies (when available) . 10.00 Claims for Missing Issues Claims must be received within 65 days of mailing. Claims will not be allowed if non-delivery was the result of failure to notify the Academy of a change of address. Notification of Change of Address Address changes should be sent promptly to the Academy Office. Notification should contain both old and new addresses and zip codes. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WAS, Rm.631, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC. 20005 Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences 202/326-8975 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 website: www.washacadsci.org Phone: 202/326-8975 email: was@washacadsci.org MCZ LIBRARY INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS OCT 1 1 2006 HARVARD UNIVERSITY THE JOURNAL of the Washington Academy of Sciences is a peer- reviewed journal. Exceptions are made for papers requested by the editors or positively approved for presentation or publication by one of our affiliated scientific societies. We welcome disciplinary and interdisciplinary scientific research reports and papers on technology development and innovation, science policy, technology assessment, and history of science and technology. Book reviews are also welcome. Contributors of papers are requested to follow these guidelines carefully. Papers should be submitted as e-mail attaclunents to the chief editor, vcoafes r/ mac.com. along with full contact information for the primary or corresponding author. Papers should be presented in Word; do not send PDF files. Papers should be 6000 words or fewer. If more than 6 graphics are included the number of words allowed will be reduced accordingly. Graphics must be in black and white only. They must be easily resized and relocated. It is best to put graphics, including tables, at the end of the paper or in a separate document, with their preferred location in the text clearly indicated. References should be in the form of endnotes, and may be in any sty le considered standard in the discipline(s) represented by the paper. The editor for this edition of the Journal is Sethanne Howard. Those papers by Mackenzie, Bogner, and Krueger are from the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society session of Capital Science 2006, The papers by Mungan and Franz are from the American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section session. Summer 2006 II At the Academy ' s Animal Awards Banquet , on May 9 at the United States Botanic Garden , Bill Boyer was installed as president for 2006-2007 A MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT: At my first meeting of the Board of Managers of the Washington Academy of Sciences I was, and still am struck by their positive team work and dedication. At a time when many non-profit professional organizations are struggling just to keep going, the Academy stands out. Even among other academies of sciences in other states and cities, the Washington Academy stands out. Several months ago Peg Kay asked me what plans I have to lead this organization. Sometimes this organization reminds me of a sailboat gliding across the Chesapeake Bay. The sails are out, the breeze is steady, the crew is working like an organized team, and I’m holding on for dear life. After our recent Capital Science event I asked members of the Board what THEY wanted for the future direction of the Academy. Here is what they said are the strong points of the Academy: • Younger people are stepping up to leadership roles; • Traditions remain strong and are cherished; • Unlike Academia or much of the government, the Board of Managers can disagree without getting personal; • Our Junior Academy and STARS program (Science and Technology Aptitude Recognition for Schools) encourages a future supply of young scientists; • Sponsorship of conferences, like Capital Science and specialized symposia serve the local and regional scientific community; • The Journal provides a venue for interdisciplinary and offbeat research and analysis ; • The Awards Banquet recognizes outstanding contributors to science, scientific education, and public service; Washington Academy of Sciences Ill • The dissemination of news about the meetings and activities of affiliated scientific societies encourages networking across disciplines, professions, and institutions. Areas where the Academy needs some attention and improvement include: • We need to do a better job of involving and serving our Affiliates; • The Junior Academy should move beyond Science Fair judging, perhaps to offer scholarships, for example; • We need to secure a stronger financial foundation; • We should improve our benefits and activities for members and fellows who are not on the Board; • We should have more academic members, considering the many colleges in the area. Other specific ideas were offered that will be discussed in the coming year. I asked the Board members to envision the Academy 5-10 years from now and here’s what they saw for the future: • The Washington Academy as a full-fledged member of the area’s scientific establishment, called on for Congressional testimony, interviewed by the Post on matters of science and science policy; • A vibrant Junior Academy built along the lines of the Academy and graduating members able to step into careers in science and roles in the Academy; • Involvement of more people with increased diversity; • An operations manual with guidance for new board members; • Regular activities for all members, in addition to Board of Managers meetings; • Membership should double or triple what it is today. Summer 2006 IV As you can tell, there is belief in the Board that the Academy should be used to spread the word that science is an important part of the lives of the people living in this region. Even when science seems to be a pawn of politics, there are scientists and scientific organizations working hard to make sure science is recognized as a tool to make our lives better. In 1898, the purpose of the new Academy was to encourage the advancement of science and “to conduct, endow, or assist investigation in any department of science.” That purpose guided the Academy throughout its first 100 years and will continue to be our guide through the coming century. Bill Boyer , President Other newly elected officers of the Washington Academy of Sciences (2006-2007): President Elect: Alain Touwaide Treasurer: Harvey Freeman Secretary: James Cole Vice President for Administrative Affairs: Rex Klopfenstein Vice President for Membership Affairs: Tom Meylan Vice President for Affiliate Affairs: Mark Holland Vice President for Junior Academy: Paul Hazan At Large Members of the Board: Peg Kay and Vary Coates, Journal Editor Immediate Past President: Douglas Witherspoon AFFILIATED INSTITUTIONS The National Institute for Standards and Technology Meadowlark Botanical Gardens The John W. Kluge Center of the Library of Congress Potomac Overlook Regional Park Washington Academy of Sciences Bottle Rockets, Teacups and the Real World: A senior seminar to bridge the gap between physics students and life after college** William T. Franz Department of Physics, Randolph-Macon College, Ashland, VA 23005 Abstract One of the peculiar aspects to being a professional physicist is the authority we all seem to have to comment on 'real life' phenomena. I have been asked about event hi ng from divining rods to space junk during my career. The senior seminar at Randolph-Macon College is designed to be a culminating experience that asks students to synthesize their course and research experience and improve their presentation skills. The most recent iteration focused on problems that varied from urban legends to wacky theories with an emphasis on laboratory measurement, practical calculation, and presentation of results. Methods for heating water to make tea and the practicality of launching people with bottle rockets will be discussed. Introduction The new curriculum at Randolph-Macon College asks each department to create a culminating or “capstone” experience for its major students. The goals of the college curriculum include the statement: “Each student should participate in some activity which draws together principles from various courses of study, examines a topic of special interest using skills and abilities drawn from several courses, or invites comparisons and contrasts about components of the major courses of instruction.”1 The physics department has instituted a number of courses in guided research and a senior seminar. Through the guided research courses, students engage in an independent research project of their own design under the tutelage of a departmental faculty member. Several projects have resulted in publication and/or presentation. The senior seminar course includes as its goals - development of communication skills, both written and oral; integration of course material with real-world applications; and building a bridge between the academic world and the Frank Haig Prize winner, presented at the Chesapeake Section of the American Association of Physics Teachers Washington Academy of Sciences 2 so-called real world after college. The emphasis is on skills so that the choice of content, while important, is largely irrelevant. The bridge to life after college is taken quite seriously in the design of the senior seminar. Many of our graduates will find themselves in front of a classroom at some point in their post-graduate lives. For some, they are intending a career in education, for others, there will be opportunities as a teaching assistant in graduate school. Therefore the seminar includes a component designed to teach some basic educational theory, and it provides an opportunity to practice teach in both informal settings and in our introductory class. Life after college is also defined by the need to search for solutions where the answer is not in the back of a book and the methodology is not taught in one particular course. The seminar therefore provides an opportunity for problem solving in “non-traditional” applications. This work is devoted to two examples of problems chosen for the seminar, the student results, and their presentations. The Research Problems PROBLEM #J: The Great Tea Cup Controversy An e-mail from a colleague2 posed an interesting question. A discussion in a local law office had reached a spirited level regarding the proper method of heating water for preparing tea. One person alleged that water heated in a teapot retained its heat longer than water heated in a microwave oven and was therefore a better method for brewing tea. In response to the colleague, it was suggested that water had a notoriously poor memory and that the method used to heat the water would have nothing to do with the rate at which it cooled. Nonetheless, there was the possibility that the container into which the water was poured could be influencing the observations as heated water poured into a cold vessel would be found cooler than water remaining in a teapot that had been heated along with the water. Despite the sound physics and the reasonable attempt at forcing a compromise, the colleagues remained unconvinced by the solution. The problem was posed to the seminar students and they were asked to conduct a series of definitive experiments to prove the point. Summer 2006 3 Experiments were conducted with water being heated by three different methods - electric teapot, tea kettle on a hot plate, and in a microwave oven. Water was brought nominally to boil and then poured into cups initially at room temperature. Experiments were conducted using Styrofoam cups and aluminum beakers. Using temperature probes interfaced through a Pasco interface system3, the students measured the temperature of the water as it cooled for several minutes and then fit their data to a traditional Newton’s Law of Cooling curve and determined the fitting parameters. Figures 1 and 2 show typical data obtained. Water cooling rates in Styrofoam Cups 100 150 Time (seconds) [—♦—Conventional « Electrical Microwave - Expon. (Conventional) — Expon. (Electrical) - Expon. (Microwave) | Figure 1 Results of the student experiments revealed that the variation in cooling rate from one method of heating to another was smaller than the experimental uncertainty where the uncertainty was determined by examining the variation among values obtained in several repetitions of the cooling experiment for a single set of experimental variables (same method of heating, same vessel). Students presented their results in a formal talk before an audience of other students and faculty in a seminar setting. They prepared a set of power point slides that described the nature of the problem, the experimental protocol they had developed, the results, and a discussion of the validity of their results. Washington Academy of Sciences 4 Water cooling rates in Aluminum — — 150 Time (seconds) Conventional -»•- Electrical Microwave - Expon (Conventional) - Expon (Electrical) - Expon (Microwave) | Figure 2 PROBLEM #2: Launching a person with water rockets A cable television network4 shows a series called “MXC” based on the Japanese game show “Takeshi’s Castle.” The program, a rather slapstick reality show, has something of a cult following. A film clip from this program showing a young Japanese man being launched using a back pack consisting of water rockets has been circulating on the Internet. One version of the clip has been found on a web page devoted to water rocketry.' The “power pack” strapped to the back of the adventurer consists of a set of about 20 bottles appearing to be 2 liters in capacity. They are partially filled with water and then pressurized using a bicycle pump and sealed. A mechanism allows for the seals on the bottles to be simultaneously broken such that the water is ejected and the adventurer is launched a considerable distance in the direction opposite to the ejection direction of the water. The seminar students were asked to determine the plausibility of this film clip being real. Using the laws of conservation of energy and momentum, reasonable assumptions regarding the pressure capacity of a Summer 2006 5 plastic soda bottle, and basic kinematic equations, they determined the maximum distance a typical person could be launched. The adventurer in the film clip appears to fly a distance of perhaps 100 meters during a flight that lasts over 6 seconds. The students performed various test launches of water rockets and determined that the maximum thrust delivered to the rocket occurred when the bottle was about 14 full of water. Using 20 bottles at 0.5 liters of water per bottle (and therefore 1.5 liters of air) and a maximum of 10 atmospheres of pressure per bottle,6 the students estimated the energy content of the power pack at 300 liter-atmospheres or 30,000 Joules. Assuming the mass of water to be 10 kg and the mass of the adventurer to be 60 kg, the momentum available to the ejected water (backward) and the adventurer (forward) is 720 kg m/s. The maximum forward velocity of the adventurer at launch, presuming 100% energy conversion efficiency and the most optimistic assumptions, is 12 m/s. This corresponds to a range of about 15 meters and a flight time of about 1.7 seconds, far below the apparent flight distance and time in the film clip. While toy water rockets fly impressively, it is their relatively small mass as compared with the mass of the water ejected that leads to this phenomenon. The bulk of the energy in such a “reverse collision problem” is carried away by the lighter mass. In the case where the payload mass dominates the fuel mass, it is the fuel, not the payload that gets most of the energy. Results were presented to an audience of introductory students who were studying the laws of conservation of momentum and energy at the time. A week later, several students commented that they had seen an experimental analysis of the same phenomenon on another TV show on another network.7 This experimental analysis confirmed the calculations as the payload launched by the water rocket fizzled immediately. Furthermore, more advanced concepts such as the stability of the adventurer against torques leading to wild rotations could not be avoided. Conclusion Students in a senior seminar were exposed to non-traditional problems that crossed the boundaries between traditional sub-disciplines of physics. Using simple experimentation, ideas from mechanics, electromagnetism and thermodynamics, they evaluated assumptions and Washington Academy of Sciences 6 rendered opinions on “real world” possibilities. They presented their results formally and defended their theories and experimental results. The students reported great satisfaction with the course. Of even greater importance, their abilities to synthesize and process information improved and their confidence and presentation skills prepared them for life after college. A cbiow I edge merits I am indebted to Elizabeth Griffin and Paulo Garcia whose data are presented here. I am also indebted to R. Ferrell Newman whose initial inquiry sparked the “Tea Cup Controversy” and began a chain of events that led to this course structure. References 1 . Randolph-Macon College curriculum goals. 2. R. Ferrell Newman, private correspondence. 3. Model CI-6525 Temperature Sensor and Science Workshop 750 Interface, both available from Pasco Scientific. 4. Spike Television Network has broadcast programming initially called "Most Extreme Challenge" which lias eventually been abbreviated as MXC. 5 . http://www.ast. leeds.ac.uk/~knapp/rockets/ 6. ibid 7. "Mythbusters" is shown by The Discovery' Channel. Summer 2006 7 RELATIVE SPEEDS OF INTERACTING ASTRONOMICAL BODIES Carl E. Mungan U.S. Naval Academy. Annapolis. MD Abstract Simultaneous conservation of linear momentum and of mechanical energy can be used to calculate the relative speed of an isolated pair of astronomical bodies as a function of the distance separating them. An exact treatment is straightforward and has application to such contemporary topics as the launch velocities of rockets, and collisions between an asteroid and the Earth. In contrast, when these topics are discussed in introductory physics courses, an infinite-Earth-mass approximation is typically invoked. In addition to being unphvsical. this denies students an opportunity for a richer exploration of the conservation laws of mechanics. Introduction Consider two spherically symmetric bodies 1 and 2 moving through space and interacting with each other gravitationally but not subject to any other forces (such as gravitational forces from other bodies or thrusts from propulsion systems). This configuration is depicted in Fig. 1. Object 1 has mass ni\ and velocity x>\, while the second body has mass m2 and velocity x>2 The distance between the centers of the two objects is r. Then conservation of linear momentum implies that +m2V2i = m\°\{ + "M>2f ’ (D while conservation of energy states 1 O 1 O Grthm^ 1 o 1 o Gm,m^ 2 m\ wii + 2 m2 v~2, - - = 2 m\ "Tf + 2 W/2 y2r - > (2) where the subscripts / and / denote initial and final instants in time, and G is the universal gravitational constant. Summer 2006 8 Fig. 1 Geometry of two objects moving under the influence of their mutual gravitational attraction. Object 2 is represented as being larger than object 1 because we will think of 2 as being the Earth and 1 as a meteoroid or rocket. Since object 1 is the body whose motion is of primary interest, we define the relative velocity to specify its velocity relative to that of object 2. Define the relative speed v of the two objects as the magnitude of the relative velocity vector Then Eqs. (1) and (2) can be combined (see the Appendix) to find (\ o Vr = . V~ + 2 GjM I - U (3) where M = m]+ is the total mass of the system. It is worth emphasizing that this result is independent of the directions of the initial and final relative velocity vectors1, they need not be directed one- dimensionally along the line joining the two bodies. This angle independence is akin to the fact that we can use energy conservation to predict the landing speed of a projectile tossed off a building of known height with a known launch speed regardless of the launch angle. Also note that Eq. (3) can be generalized to the motion of particles under the action of other mutual inverse-square forces. For example, it can be applied to the electrostatic interaction of two charges qx and q2 if we replace G by -k(qx / ml )(q0 / w0) where k is the Coulomb constant. Washington Academy of Sciences 9 Three applications of Eq. (3) An immediate application of this result is to compute the escape speed. This is the minimum initial speed that enables the two objects to climb out of each other’s gravitational potential wells, or in other words that causes their relative speed to fall to zero as they approach infinite separation. Putting = 0 at rf = °° implies that the launch speed V- = Vesc is (4) where R = r is the distance between the centers of the two objects at launch. (In the case of a terrestrial rocket, R is the distance of the spacecraft from the center of the Earth after the engines have been shut off and the booster stages ejected. Unless one is launching off a high-orbit platform, R is essentially equal to Earth’s radius in this case.) Note that Eq. (4) differs from the usual approximate textbook expression2 in that M is the sum of both masses, rather than just m2 alone. This difference is of negligible consequence when launching a rocket off Earth, but can be significant in the case of two astronomical bodies of more comparable mass trying to escape from each other (< e.g ., the Moon’s original breakaway from the Earth, or the response of a pair of orbiting bodies after a third body sweeps past or collides into one of them). Another important application of Eq. (3) is to calculate the impact speed of a meteoroid (object 1) striking Earth (object 2). In that case, the final distance is Earth’s radius, = RE = 6380 km . Suppose the meteoroid is initially detected when it is far from the Earth, rf In ~ 0, and that it is then traveling at about the same speed as the Earth because of the Sun’s gravitational pull, vE = v2[ = vE where Earth’s orbital speed about the Sun is vE =(Gws //?ES) “ =29.8 km/s. (Here is the solar mass and RE$ is one astronomical unit or 150 million kilometers. This expression is derived by setting the Sun-Earth gravitational force GmsmE/RES equal to the product of Earth’s mass mE and centripetal acceleration vE/RES.) If we take the dot product of the expression u =t)Ii -\)oj with itself, we get v\ = 2*^(1 -cos#) where #is the angle between the initial directions of travel of the meteoroid and the Earth (so Summer 2006 10 that Ujj v>2i =V\\V2\ cos^ = cos#). Equation (3) now becomes v( = ^I2vK]-cos6))+vL.e (5) where vcscE = (2GmE / RE) = 11.2km/s from Eq. (4), assuming the meteoroid is small. This impact speed v$ is plotted in Fig. 2 as a function of the angle 0. The results are in good agreement with astronomical data collected for actual meteoroid arrival speeds at Earth’s upper atmosphere.3 angle (degrees) Fig. 2 Speed relative to Earth with which a meteoroid strikes our atmosphere (assuming the meteoroid is much smaller in size and mass than the Earth). The abscissa is the angle between Earth's orbital velocity (assumed fixed in direction) and the meteoroid's initial velocity. Large angles imply a head-on collision (so that the relative impact speed is approximately 2V0. while small angles imply that either the asteroid strikes Earth from behind or vice-versa (so that the intercept along the ordinate is i>esc E). as the inset diagrams suggest. A third important application of Eq. (3) is Solar System escape: How should a rocket be launched from Earth’s surface so that it escapes both the Earth and Sun? A solution can be obtained by separately considering the escape from each of these bodies. This is called the “independent escape” approximation and its validity has been confirmed by numerical solution of the exact three-body problem.4 Substitute into Eq. (3) the Washington Academy of Sciences values M ~ mE , /• = , rf = «> , launch speed vi = VQSC ss relative to the Earth in order to escape from the Solar System, and final velocity Desc s relative to the Sun [in order to escape from it with speed v s = (2G/7?s / ^ES)1/2 = 42. 1 km/s ] which implies a final speed relative to Earth of = t>esc s “ ve > assuming the rocket is launched in the direction of Earth's orbital velocity t)E (Earth’s axial velocity can also be included if the rocket is launched eastward from the equator, as is often done for deep-space satellites.) Rearranging, one thereby obtains yesc,SS = \l(l'csc.S~Vl J + VL.E = 1 6 7 km/s • (6) which is only a little larger than the escape speed from Earth alone! In particular, this speed is much smaller than the 42.1 km/s escape speed from the Sun starting at rest relative to the Sun at Earth’s distance. Taking advantage of Earth’s motion by launching in the direction of its orbital velocity confers a huge assist. (Additional boosts are possible using the gravitational slingshot effect as the spacecraft passes other planets on its way out of the Solar System.) It is important to note that Eq. (6) cannot be obtained by assuming that the sum of the kinetic energy of the rocket (in Sun’s frame of reference) and the potential energy of the rocket relative to the Sun and Earth is conserved, i.e., by letting ni be the rocket’s mass and writing \m(Vesc.SS + Vi:j Gm^m Gm^m ? ^ES ? 7 I = 0 ^ Vesc,SS =yVlsc,S + *4sc,E ” VE which does not agree with Eq. (6). The error is that the change in Earth’s kinetic energy (in Sun’s frame of reference) has been neglected. In the solar frame the Earth is moving, and the rocket is exerting a gravitational force on it in its direction of motion. Therefore work is done on the Earth, so that Earth’s kinetic energy must increase. To put it another way, work (and hence the change in kinetic energy) are dependent on the reference frame of the observer. (In the terrestrial frame, no work is done on the Earth.) It is only the sum of the work that the Earth and rocket do on each other that is frame independent (namely it equals the decrease in gravitational potential energy of the Earth-rocket system), as can be seen from Eq. (13) in the Appendix. Summer 2006 12 Conclusions In summary, calculation of the relative speed between two astronomical bodies resulting from their mutual gravitational interaction (or between two point charges interacting electrostatically) is an elegant and useful application of the conservation laws of energy and momentum. The math is considerably simplified by measuring the positions and velocities of the bodies in the center-of-mass reference frame, so that an exact derivation is within the scope of an introductory physics course. In contrast, standard treatments such as Eq. (7) only consider the mechanical energy of a single body. The latter approach not only violates conservation of linear momentum, it is not even properly defined because potential energy is actually a property of the system of interacting bodies and not of one body alone. That standard approach only gives the correct answer, such as Eq. (4), when one body is much more massive than the other and the velocities are measured in the rest frame of the heavy body, as required by the work-kinetic-energy theorem. One application of the exact result given by Eq. (3) is to compute the escape speed of one body relative to another. It is given by Eq. (4) regardless of the sizes of the two objects (unlike the usual textbook expression). That explains why the formula is symmetric in the radii and masses of the two bodies. The escape speed for object 1 to escape from 2 must be the same as for body 2 to escape from 1 . A second application is the calculation of the speeds of meteoroids impacting the Earth. Most of the variation in speed here is due to the large range of angles between the meteoroid’s and Earth’s velocities, as can be seen from Eq. (5). A head-on collision approximately doubles the impact speed (ignoring the small boost due to Earth’s gravity described by the vesc£ term), while a rearward collision almost cancels it, assuming the Earth and meteoroid have similar initial speeds relative to the Sun. Finally Eq. (6), describing escape from the Solar System, depends on three separate speeds: the escape speed from Earth’s surface, the escape speed from the Sun at Earth’s distance, and the orbital speed of Earth about the Sun. The two escape terms are added in quadrature because kinetic energy depends on speed squared. Meanwhile, the orbital speed is subtracted from the solar escape speed because Earth’s motion about the Sun boosts the rocket toward escape, provided one launches in the direction that takes advantage of this assist. In fact. Earth’s orbital speed is 71% (2~1/2) of the required escape speed from the Sun, which explains Washington Academy of Sciences 13 why Solar System escape is actually dominated by escape from the Earth Appendix — Derivation of Eq. (3) The simultaneous solution of Eqs. (1) and (2) is simplified by the wise choice of coordinate system. Since the two bodies 1 and 2 are isolated from external forces, the total linear momentum of the system is conserved, and hence the center of mass has constant velocity. We can thus choose the origin to be fixed at the center of mass and to move with it, which properly defines an inertial reference frame. In that case, the total linear momentum of the system is always zero, and Eq. (1) implies that mxX)Xx = -m2X) 2i = -m2 (6^ -X*x ) (8) since X)x is the initial velocity of object 1 relative to 2. This equation can be rearranged to obtain = <9) where Mis the total mass of the system. Similar reasoning for the second body gives l) 2i Hh M (10) (The minus sign here reflects the symmetry in the definition of the relative velocity.) Equations (9) and (10) imply that the initial kinetic energy of the system is 1 2 1 2 1 2 -mxvXl + -m2v2l = -MV{ (11) where ju = mxm~, I M is called the reduced mass of the system. (The reason for this name is that it is a quantity with units of mass and is smaller than both mx and m2. One can think of the total mass as the “series” sum of the individual masses, M - mx + m0, while the reduced mass is the “parallel” sum, 1 / n - 1 / mx + 1 / m^ .) In like fashion, the final kinetic energy is Summer 2006 14 1 2 1 2 1 2 wij % + m2 v2i- nv{ • (12) Equation (2) in the main text can therefore be compactly expressed in terms of the relative speeds and distances as 2 Gmxm2 _ 1 Grthm 2^ =~m - 1"'2 (13) Finally, noting that mxm^ = Mju , Eq. (13) can be immediately rearranged to give Eq. (3). References 1. In contrast, if we wished to determine the final velocities. u if and 0)2 f. and not merely the relative speed, then we would have 6 unknowns (i.e.. three components of each velocity). Equations (1) and (2) only provide 4 independent relationships (3 components of linear momentum plus 1 scalar energy expression). One would then need to invoke conservation of angular momentum to get 2 more relations. The resulting analysis is no longer introductory level but instead invokes non collinear scattering theory, treated in texts such as S.T. Thornton and J.B. Marion. Classical Dynamics of Particles and Systems. 5 th ed. (Thomson. Belmont CA. 2004). 2. See. for example. R.A. Serway and J.W. Jewett. Jr., Principles of Physics . 4th ed. (Thomson. Belmont CA. 2006). p. 348. 3. A. Diaz-Jimenez and A.P. French. "A note on 'Solar escape revisited .” Am. J. Phvs ., 56. 85-86(1988). 4. N.J. Hannon. C. Leidel. and J.F. Lindner, "Optimal exit: Solar escape as a restricted three-body problem.” Am. J. Phvs. 71. 871-877 (2003). Also see A.Z. Hendel and M.J. Longo. ‘'Comparing solutions for the solar escape problem,” Am. J. Phvs.. 56. 82-85 (1988). Washington Academy of Sciences 15 VIDEOS OF EMERGENCY CARE SHOW CHALLENGES FOR PATIENT SAFETY Colin. F. Mackenzie Yan Xiao National Study Center for Trauma & EMS Program in Trauma and Department of Anesthesiology University of Mary land Abstract Video data collection and analysis is simple and fruitful and is currently underused in healthcare to understand unsafe acts, pre-cursor events and system failures leading to patient safety issues. Video recorded examples of two brief, risky, but beneficial emergency tasks performed routinely in emergency care, were used in this paper to illustrate, yy ith human factors and ergonomic methods, lioyv video can identity and potentially provide solutions for correction of safety deficiencies in emergency and routine clinical care. In comparison with safety' recommendations of expert clinicians and best clinical practice models, video recorded performance of routine and emergency tasks showed that rarely were either expert recommendations or best practices used consistently. The safety7 issues, what really occurred, and potential solutions to prevent recurrences yvere revealed by the video record. Because of the fine-grained analyses possible, the video record captured pre-cursor and fleeting events, subtle cues, brief utterances, and unsafe acts leading to the safety deficiencies. The Problem Traditional data collection methodologies have difficulty capturing fleeting events, subtle cues, brief utterances, or team interactions and communications (Rogers, 1992). There is a paucity of data about what occurs in uncertain emergency medicine workplaces, where risky but beneficial procedures are carried out, often in non-optimal circumstances. Such data may be critical to identification of what Reason (1990) has termed unsafe acts, pre-cursor events, accident opportunities, latent and systems failures. This paper discusses how patient safety shortcomings in the emergency medical domain can be identified and potentially rectified through a video-based data collection, analysis, and educational feedback approach. Successful preventive strategies were identified for patient and clinician safety performance problems that were revealed using this Summer 2006 - 16 robust, inexpensive video technology through which fine-grained data analyses are possible. Significance Video data collection and analysis are simple, fruitful and currently underused to examine the real-life medical workplace and understand what is really happening and how improvements can be made (Mackenzie, Xiao, & Horst 2004). Emergency medical departments have many different physical characteristics, personnel work routines, and team organization structures; yet video data collection is a methodology that is applicable in all domains. Video analysis provides both the systems-based solutions that can be generalized across many emergency medical domains and unique solutions to a specific location. Video data captures real-life events that can be used to develop simulations and training material to prevent a recurrence (Weinger el a / 2004). This approach for improving patient care outcomes in healthcare used in a systematic manner can identify many of the deficiencies in knowledge about pre-cursor events, error opportunities, and provide solutions for correction of deficiencies. Methods Video clips from the University of Maryland, Baltimore, video library and 15 year experience of video data collection and analysis methodologies captured during emergency care of trauma patients were used as source material. The challenges in identification of safety, organizational, and systems based problems in technical work in emergency care, were characterized using human factors and ergonomic methods. A multidisciplinary approach for analysis and data extraction included experienced trauma clinicians, experts in industrial engineering, psychology, and applied technology. As an example of the patient safety data collection from video¬ recording in the trauma workplace, video records were made of airway management (placement of a plastic tube into the trachea - called tracheal intubation). Misplacement of the airway is a major source of adverse outcome in anesthesia and during trauma patient resuscitation. In an analysis of 2,046 closed claims from medical insurance company files, 762, or 37%, of such events were caused by misplacement of the tracheal tube into the esophagus, resulting in no oxygen delivery to the lungs and an adverse patient outcome (Caplan et al 1990). In a 300 patient sub¬ group of these patients who had traumatic injury, the incidence of brain damage and death was 47% (Cheney el al 1991). The misplacement of the tracheal tube into the esophagus also occurred with the pre-hospital use of Washington Academy of Sciences 17 this airway management technique, resulting in 50% mortality (Katz & Falk, 2001). The task of tracheal intubation is therefore a risky, but at the same time a potentially life-saving procedure, likely to be a fruitful source of patient safety issues captured on video records. A second, brief, risky, but beneficial medical procedure performed frequently in injured patients is chest tube insertion. Video recording was used in a similar manner to that employed for tracheal intubation to evaluate performance of insertion of the tube through the chest wall. This procedure is used to relieve pressure from air or fluids (such as blood) that accumulate after trauma, between the chest wall and lung tissue, collapsing one or both lungs. The risks of chest tube insertion include damage to the lungs, heart, diaphragm, liver, stomach, and spleen (if the tube is misdirected or inserted too low or too far into the chest). In trauma patients there is a reported morbidity of 6% to 36% of all chest tube insertions (Etoch el al. 1995). At our own institution there was a 16% incidence of infection within the chest following chest tube insertion (Caplan et al. 1984), about four times the incidence of many other similar institutions (Ernst el al. 2003). The suspected mechanism for infection was contamination during the procedure of chest tube insertion. Management of such infections within the chest requires prolonged hospital stay, lengthy drainage from an indwelling tube, and often extensive surgery to peel the infection from the lung. Video recording of chest tube insertion seemed likely to be able to identify causes of possible contamination during insertion Results Tracheal Intubation Among the first 50 video recordings of tracheal intubation, there was a single video record of a prolonged undetected esophageal intubation. This video was reviewed a) by the anesthesia care providers whose care was video recorded; b) by subject matter experts (SMEs), experienced anesthesiology clinicians; c) in comparison to performance of tracheal intubation and a consensus airway management algorithm agreed upon by 20 experienced trauma anesthesiologists; and, d) in comparison to the other 49 video records of tracheal intubation, performed in both elective and emergency circumstances during patient resuscitation and routine anesthesia induction in the Operating Room. Each of these four analyses yielded different aspects of the pre-cursor events, unsafe acts, and system failures that lead to the error and identified factors that allowed the window of error opportunity to occur. Summer 2006 18 Participant Anesthesia Care Providers Review The care providers were part of an ad hoc team in which a medical student, on his first clinical rotation in the trauma center resuscitation team, incorrectly communicated that he heard breath sounds in the chest. The anesthesia care providers did not check this themselves, and a second communication from the student (“it’s also going in here, too”) when he listened over the stomach was obscured by loud conversation and laughter from a nearby area. Video review allowed the care providers to see their failure to use diagnostic equipment to detect carbon dioxide (the lack of which would have confirmed esophageal not tracheal intubation) and identified the fixation error that occurred because the patient appeared stable despite the misplaced airway tube because he had been given oxygen by face mask for eight minutes before attempts at tracheal intubation. Lack of communications among the team occurred when there was the greatest uncertainty about the patient status. In addition, the patient’s vital signs monitors were cycling for 3 minutes after esophageal intubation without displaying data. Subject Matter Expert Review The SMEs noted the reluctance of the surgical and nursing team members to intervene, even when the oxygen monitor provided a signal showing very low levels of oxygen. Five to seven team members were standing around the patient for the 6 minute duration of the unrecognized esophageal intubation and did not directly offer assistance or question the airway management; rather they made subtle suggestions (see Table 1). The SMEs also noted the poor error recovery when the patient was not re-oxygenated before re-attempting tracheal intubation when the patient showed signs of severe lack of oxygen, even though a nurse can be seen on the video offering the needed face mask. Team members did not coordinate the recovery efforts after the tube was removed from the esophagus by protecting the airway or by assisting the repeat tracheal intubation. Comparison to Best Practice Algorithm The standard operating procedure recommended by the expert consensus following passage of a tracheal tube is for the clinician who inserts the tube to listen, first to the left and then right sides of the chest, and communicate to the team whether the breath sounds are heard and whether they are equal on both sides of the chest. Following this the clinician listens over the stomach and communicates “no breath sounds in the belly.” The last check recommended is to test to see if carbon dioxide is present in the exhaled Washington Academy of Sciences 19 gas from the airway tube. The communication “carbon dioxide positive” provides the definitive confirmation of correct placement of the airway tube in the trachea. The anesthesia care providers never listened to the chest until the patient showed severe oxygen deprivation, and only used the carbon dioxide monitor when it was clear from other data that the tube was misplaced. The inexperienced medical student did listen to the patient’s chest and abdomen in the recommended sequence, but misinterpreted hearing breath sounds in the chest, due to air entering the stomach. The significance of air entry into the stomach was not recognized, and the exam was not repeated. The student communication was picked up by the directional microphones on the ceiling above, but was not heard by the team standing three feet away because of noise from a nearby location. Comparison with Other Video Recorded Tracheal Intubations Data was extracted from each video record of tracheal intubation in a systematic manner using a template that evaluated the completion of steps in the overall task of tracheal intubation and timed the duration between these steps (Mackenzie el a/. 1996). As a result, a fourfold greater time interval was noted between tracheal intubation and testing exhaled gas with the carbon dioxide monitor to confirm correct tracheal tube position in those patients intubated under emergency conditions in the resuscitation area, rather than electively in the Operating Room. The same procedures were used and the same personnel performed the intubations in each location. However, in the resuscitation area there was no connection to allow carbon dioxide sampling in the anesthesia circuit used to provide oxygen. Insertion of a 25-cent connector was recommended to allow carbon dioxide sampling immediately after tracheal intubation. Standard Operating Procedures were changed as a result of these video analyses to a) ensure that the clinical exam task was carried out, b) stress communication of the clinical findings, and c) advocate conduct of carbon dioxide testing immediately after all tracheal intubations. In the 10 years since this prolonged, uncorrected esophageal intubation occurred, after implementation of the task/communication algorithm and insertion of the carbon dioxide sampling connector, more than 14,000 tracheal intubations have been performed, with no recurrence of undetected esophageal intubation. Summer 2006 20 Table 1: Specific Video Review Findings of Esophageal Intubation Pre-cursor Events a) Lengthy pre-oxygenation with face mask before esophageal intubation delayed recognition of lack of oxygenation after tube misplacement. b) Ventilation device used after emergency intubation had no simple carbon dioxide analyzer connection (positive carbon dioxide confirms lung, not esophageal ventilation). c) Patient physiological monitors of oxygenation and blood pressure failed to provide signal for nearly 3 minutes after esophageal intubation. Fleeting Events a) Anesthesia team member blows down tracheal tube causing “gurgling” sounds indicating air going down esophagus into stomach. b) Trauma team failed to assist the anesthesia team for 30 seconds when misplaced tube removed. Subtle Cues a) Uncertainty about tube misplacement revealed by comments heard on audio record between team members “Should you pull the tube out?”, “He’s got a good pulse”, “We’re in there!”, “Do you want a new tube?” Brief Utterances a) “It’s also going in here too” comment by medical student listening over abdomen, not heard by team due to nearby loud conversation. b) “Correlates well with pulse and says 39 to 40” (nurse commenting on both the accuracy and low oxygen monitor value of first display - normal level 98-100. Correlation with pulse suggests value is accurate). Unsafe Acts a) Video record showed neither anesthesia care provider carried a stethoscope to listen to chest (standard operating procedure). Washington Academy of Sciences 21 b) Carbon dioxide analysis (“gold standard” to detect lung ventilation) was delayed for 5 minutes after esophageal intubation. c) No reoxygenation (“holding pattern”) established before re-attempt intubation. Chest Tube Insertion Surgical texts, semi -structured interviews and a questionnaire completed by senior trauma surgeons were used to establish best practice techniques for chest tube insertion. From the first 49 video records of chest tube insertion we extracted more than 80 short (15 - 120 second) clips showing good and non-optimal performance of chest tube insertion. These were copied onto a compact disc and distributed among 15 senior trauma clinicians who scored statements linked to each video clip on a Likert scale (1-10, where 1= strongly agree and 10= strongly disagree). Scores aggregating below three were considered to represent a consensus. Several analyses were conducted of the video records: a) examination of breaks in sterile technique during emergency and elective insertion of chest tubes together with practices that would have prevented these breaks; b) task analysis template data extraction by SMEs of times, number of insertion attempts, instrument tray positioning, etc.; c) evaluation of whether the practices reaching consensus among the senior trauma clinicians were carried out in each video recorded chest tube insertion; and d) ergonomic analysis of instrument tray position, instrument tray content and number of instrument trays used for chest tube insertion (both unilateral and bilateral chest tube insertions occurred). Examination of Breaks in Sterile Technique Among the 26 emergency chest tube insertions, video records showed that 100% had breaks in sterile technique. All but one of these breaks in technique, many of which were fleeting events (see Table 2), occurred within one minute of the start of the surgical procedure after the skin had been prepped with antibacterial fluid. One surgical site remained sterile for three minutes. Among the 24 elective chest tube insertions all but one surgical site was contaminated within 13 minutes. In one patient the site remained sterile for 28 minutes before eventual contamination. All chest tube insertions, whether carried out in emergency or elective Summer 2006 22 circumstances, had breaks in surgical sterile techniques. In emergencies there were 113 breaks in sterile technique noted by video analysis; in elective there were 64 breaks in sterile technique (Mackenzie et al 2002). Practices that would have prevented these breaks in sterility included wearing of sterile gloves and gowns, more extensive prepping of the skin with antibacterial fluid, wider draping of the surrounding area with sterile drapes, improved operator technique, and better patient analgesia. Task Analysis Template Data There was a wide range of duration for chest tube insertion. Emergency chest tube insertion was shorter in duration than elective and required fewer unsuccessful attempts. Two needle sticks and one knife cut were video recorded in these 49 chest tube insertions. Infection and “sharp” injury risks appeared to be increased by sharing of instrument trays and simultaneous invasive surgical procedures. Consensus Practices Discrepancies between SMEs recommended practices and observed practices seen in the video records of chest tube insertion were prevalent. Particular discrepancy was in the use of maximum barrier protection to prevent contamination, which was a well recognized standard operating procedure included in all surgical best practices. However, among the first 25 video records of emergency chest tube insertion procedures, these were frequently omitted; e.g ., no sterile gown (12/25), no sterile gloves (5/25), inadequate sterile drape (18/25), inadequate skin cleansing (12/25). Ergonomic Analysis of Instrument Tray Position The principle of keeping the instrument tray near the chest tube insertion surgical site was routinely violated. Fifty-two percent of tray positions used were rated as sub-optimal by the surgeons themselves. The most common position (61%) for the instrument tray was directly behind the surgeon, requiring over a 90 degree turn. Fifteen of the chest-tube insertions required the operator to walk up to six feet from the surgical site to retrieve instruments (Seagull et al 2006). Simple ergonomic problems impeded performance and created safety risks for patients and operators. Washington Academy of Sciences 23 Table 2: Specific Video Review Findings of Chest Tube Insertion Pre-Cursor Events a) No preparatory sterile gown and gloves worn by team when notified of critical emergency patient admission requiring sterile procedures. b) Multiple team members and trainees routinely perform simultaneous invasive procedures in emergency patient care. Fleeting Events a) Frame-by-frame video analysis shows elbow contaminating instrument tray. b) Surgeon wearing sterile gloves grabs patient’s arm reaching for chest tube insertion site and does not change contaminated gloves. Subtle Cues a) Surgical instrument trays often placed 6 feet from surgical site (Seagull el ci! 2006) probably increases contamination occurrence and procedure duration. b) Video revealed non-sterile gloves were difficult for other team members to distinguish from sterile. Brief Utterances a) “This won’t take long and we will numb the area so you won’t feel it” comment by team member before chest tube insertion in anxious patient who is seen on video to move, reach for site and loudly complain of pain. Unsafe Acts a) Among all 25 video records of emergency chest tube insertion there was an omission of one or more measures to prevent contamination including skin preparation, adequate sterile draping, sterile gown and sterile gloves (standard operating procedures). b) Mentoring of trainees during chest tube insertion failed to follow maximum contamination barrier precautions (Guzzo el a 1 2006). Summer 2006 24 c) Infection and “sharp” injury risks of sharing of instrument trays and multiple simultaneous invasive procedures. Discussion Video has the advantage over observation of capturing the minutest and briefest particulars of human interaction while retaining the context of the event and making it available for analyses by multiple or independent subject matter experts. As this paper shows, video recording in the medical environment makes it possible for clinicians to review their own activities and for analysts to extract qualitative and quantitative data. Understanding human activities in real, complex environments is important (Klein et al 1993). Many significant variables, such as expertise, risk, uncertainty, and composition of teams are often difficult to replicate in usual laboratory settings. Studies in real environments and in sophisticated simulation environments with experienced practitioners are required. Although indirect data such as recalled past incidents can be utilized (Klein, 1989), direct collection of behavioral data is needed to overcome potential biases in retrospective construction of past events. Tools for collecting behavioral data have become increasingly sophisticated. The most influential among these new tools is probably video recording (Dorwick & Biggs, 1983). With video recording, the person who was recorded can provide comments on his or her covert mental processes cued by video records. Such cognitive approaches to examination of real medical events are a powerful tool to examine performance and identify patient and practitioners safety issues. Video was used with simulation for medical education (Cooper et al. 2000) and in the analysis of crisis resource management trauma assessment training debriefing after patient simulation (Gaba & DeAnda 1998; Lee el al 2003). Video by its nature is a powerful tool for behavioral researchers, and its value was recognized soon after its initial consumer availability (Tardiff et al. 1978; Dorwick & Biggs 1983). The potential utilities of video recording for studying performance in high risk healthcare settings are difficult to overstate. The advances in hardware and software have made video technology a routine tool for research in individual and collaborative Washington Academy of Sciences 25 performance. An increasing number of research projects include video recoding as a key data collection method. How this tool should be exploited methodologically and theoretically is thus a key question for researchers (Xiao & Mackenzie, 2004). The video analysis data described in this paper shows the advantages compared to other approaches to knowledge acquisition about safety and technical work in emergency medical care. Subject matter expert interviews conducted before chest-tube insertion did not identify what was actually occurring in the real-life event; rather the experts described an ideal version of what they hoped would occur in the real event. Examination of standard operating procedures, even those developed by consensus for the two tasks of tracheal intubation and chest tube insertion, were deficient in ensuring safe practices for the patient and the clinician. Medical texts provided only non-specific assistance to optimum task performance. The literature and evidence based best practices identified problems, but were unable to articulate solutions that would increase patients’ safety during these two tasks. The importance of omission of a high priority task was confirmed by the critical incident that resulted in prolonged uncorrected misplacement of the tracheal tube in the esophagus. In this incident, the anesthesia care providers became fixated on lack of information about the vital signs and oxygen levels. They failed to employ simpler, but less technological contingency solutions, such as listening to the chest, to identify tracheal tube position. They also, as has been recognized in other critical incidents, failed to use equipment that was at hand (carbon dioxide analyzer) that could have definitively answered their concerns about whether the tracheal tube was correctly placed. While emergency chest tube placement was almost twice as rapid as elective chest tube placement, there were no steps omitted once the skin incision started the procedure. Rather, the task omissions occurred before skin incision when operator gowning, adequate skin preparation, and surgical draping were deficient. Because of these preparatory deficiencies, the opportunities for subsequent contamination of the surgical site due to break in sterile technique was magnified. The 14-inch long flexible plastic chest tube is difficult to control and easily became contaminated unintentionally on the operator’s non-sterile clothing or on an area of the patient not covered with surgical drapes. In some instances, the patient themselves contaminated the surgical site because the hand (positioned above the head to open the space between the ribs) on the side of the chest Summer 2006 26 tube insertion was not held. The non-optimal positioning of the surgical instrument tray increases the likelihood that breaks in sterile technique could occur. Large workload under time pressure creates challenges not only for individuals but also for the resuscitation staff as a whole to coordinate activities. For both the studied tasks, video record review, especially of emergency task accomplishment, provided fine-grained data analyses that identified errors of omission and non-optimal performance. Even the experienced team members who participated in the care that was video recorded were not immune from these deficiencies, and were unaware of their performance until receiving the feedback from the video record. Aggregate data from multiple task accomplishments compared at two levels of task urgency was a non-pejorative means of conveying the need for procedural changes to increase patient and clinician safety. End Note: This paper is based in part on the formal presentation Videos of Emergency Care Show Challenges for Patienl Safely by Colin F. Mackenzie, MD. It was presented in a symposium on Human Error in Medicine by the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society at the Washington Academy of Sciences’ Capital Science 2006 Conference, held at the National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA March 25, 2006. Acknowledgements The video data and analyses presented here would not have been possible without the human factors engineering and psychology expertise (Jacob Seagull PhD), technical skills (Peter Fu-Ming Hu), and clinical expertise of the subject matter expert (SME) surgeons, anesthesiologists and nurses in the Shock Trauma Center at the University of Maryland Funding from Office of Naval Research (ONR), National Science Foundation (NSF), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), and the Army Research Institute (ARI) for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Washington Academy of Sciences 27 References Caplan, E.S.. Hoyt NX Rodriguez, A.. Cowley, R.A. (1984) Empyema occurring in the multiply traumatized patient. J. Trauma , 24,785-789. Caplan, R.A.. Posher. K.L., Ward, R.J.. Cheney. F.W. (1990) Adverse respiratory events in anesthesia; a closed claims analysis. Anesthesiology, 72. 828-833. Cheney. F.W.. Posher, K.L., & Caplan. R.A. (1991) Adverse respiratory events infrequently leading to malpractice suits. A closed claims analysis. Anesthesiology, 75, 932-939. Cooper. J.B.. Barron, D., Blum. R.. Davison. J.K.. Feinstein, D.. Halacsz. J.. Raemer. D.. Russell, R. (2002) Video teleconferencing with a realistic simulation for medical education. J. Clinical Anesthesiology, 12, 256-261. Dorvvick. P.W. & Biggs. S.J. ( 1983) Using video psychological and social applications. Chichester. UK; Wiley & Sons. Ernest, A., Silvesteri. G.A., & Johnstone, D. (2003) Interventional pulmonary procedures: guidelines from the American College of Chest Physicians. Chest, 123, 1693-1717. Etoch, S.W., Bar-Natan, M.F., Miller. F.B., Richardson, J.D. (1995) Tube Thoracostomy factors related to complications.^ rch ives of Surgery. 130. 521-525. Gaba. D M. & DeAnda. A. (1988) A comprehensiv e anesthesia simulation environment: Recreating the operating room for research and training. Anesthesiology, 69. 387-394. Guzzo. J.L., Seagull. F.J.. Bochicchio. G.V.. Sisley. A.. Mackenzie. C.F., Dutton. R.P.. Scalea. T.. & Xiao. Y. (2006) Mentors Decrease Compliance with Best Sterile Practices during Central Line Placement in the Trauma Resuscitation Unit. Surgical In fection, 7. 15-20. Katz. S.M.. & Falk. J.L. (2001) Misplaces endotracheal tubes by paramedics in an urban medical services system. Annals of Emergency Medicine, 37, 32-37. Klein GA (1989) Recognition-Primed Decisions. In WB Rouse (Ed) Advances in Man- Machine System Research . 5. pp 47-92 Greenwich CT. JAI Press. Klein GA. Zsambok CE. Thorsden ML. (1993) Team-Decision Training: Five myths and a Model. Military? Review pp 36-42. Lee. S.K., Pardo. M.. Gaba. D., Sowb, Y., Dicker, R., Straus, E.M. Khaw. L.. Matabito. Krumpel T.M.. & Knudson M.M. (2003) Trauma assessment training with a patient simulator: A prospective randomized study. J. Trauma, 55. 651-657. Mackenzie. C.F.. Jeffries. N.J.. Hunter, A.. Bernard. W.. Xiao. Y.. & LOTAS Group. (1996) Comparison of Self Reporting of Deficiencies in Airway Management with Video Analysis of Actual Performance. Human Factors, 38. 623-635. Mackenzie. C.F.. Martin, P., Xiao. Y. & LOTAS Group. (1996) Video analysis of prolonged uncorrected esophageal intubation. Anesthesiology, 84. 1494-1503. Mackenzie, C.F.. Xiao, Y.. Hu, P„ Seagull. F.J., Hammond. C.. Bochicchio. G.. Chiu. W.. O’Connor. J., Gerber-Smith. L.. Dutton. R. (2002) Video clips as a data source for safety performance. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors & Ergonomics Society. 46th annual meeting, p 1414. Mackenzie. C.F., & Xiao. Y. (2003) Video techniques and data compared with observ ation in emergency care. Quality & Safety in Health Care, 121 (Suppl 1 1 ) ii 51-ii 57. Summer 2006 28 Mackenzie. C.F.. Xiao. Y.. & Horst. R. (2004) Video task analysis in high performance teams. Cognition, Technology & Work, 6. 139-147. Reason. J. (1990) Human Error . Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. Rogers. Y. (1992) Coordinating computer-mediated work. Computer Supported Cooperative Work . 1. 295-315. Seagull. F.J.. Mackenzie. C.F., Xiao. Y.. & Bochiccio. G.V. (2006) Video-based Ergonomic Analysis to Evaluate Thoracostomy Tube Placement Techniques. J. Trauma. 60. 227-232. Tardiff. K.. et a/. (1981) A videotape technique for measuring clinical skills. Three years of experience. J Medical Education. 56. 187-191. Vincente. K.J.. (2000) Work Domain Analysis and Task Analysis. A Difference that matters. In: Schraagen JM. Chipman SF. & Shalin VL. Eds. Cognitive Task Analysis . p: 101-118. Mahwah NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Weinger. M.B.. Gonzales. D C.. Slagel. J. & Syeed. M. (2004) Video capture of clinical care to enhance patient safety. Quality & Safety in Healthcare 13. 136-144 Xiao. Y. & the LOTAS Group. (2001) Understanding Coordination in a Dynamic Medical Environment: Methods and Results. In: New Trends in Cooperative Activities. Eds. McNeese M. Salas E. & Endslev M. Chap. 14. pp 242-258. Santa Monica, CA: Human Factors and Ergonomics Society . Xiao. Y.. & Mackenzie. C.F. (2004) Introduction to the special issue on video-based research in high risk settings: Methodology and experience. Cognition, Technology & Work . 6. 127-130. Washington Academy of Sciences 29 It's Not Who in 98,000 Medical Error Deaths, It's What! Marilyn Sue Bogner Institute for the Study of Human Error, LLC msbo gnerifoerols . com Abstract In 1999 the Institute of Medicine (IOM) reported that 44,000 to 98,000 hospitalized patients die annually due to medical error (Kolm. Corrigan & Donaldson. 1999). This caused public consternation. Following recommendations from the report that care providers be held accountable for their errors and research should be focused primarily on accountability through error-reporting programs, the report continued that the purpose of such research was to reduce the incidence of error by 50% in 5 years. The findings from that $250 million of U.S government funded research provided little if any indication of how the magnitude of error might be reduced effectively. The ensuing background material may seem tedious and theoretical for a problem that needs urgent and effective action. The detail is important because it supports a paradigm change from the person, the care provider - the “who” - being solely responsible for the unexpected adverse outcome associated with an error to a paradigm that errors and attendant adverse outcomes are the result of the systems of environmental factors affecting the individual - the “what”. The power of this systems paradigm for addressing the interplay of factors that induce error is illustrated by the discussion of a case with an adverse outcome. The implications of this systems paradigm to effectively reduce health care error by considering the role of the “what” as well as the “who” are discussed. The Problem In health care as in other industries when an incident occurs in which an act of one person results in harm to another, directly as in health care or indirectly as in aviation, that act typically is considered an error. This attribution of error is evident not only in the media, but also in conversations about the incident especially if that incident involves health care. Indeed, health care providers often blame themselves for an adverse Summer 2006 30 outcome because they are taught they are responsible for what happens to the patient Blaming the person associated with the act that caused actual harm or an inappropriate act in which no harm occurred reflects the Stop Rule - the predilection when reviewing or backward-chaining the conditions to identify what caused an error to stop at a familiar possible cause, one that can be readily addressed (Rasmussen, 1990). What more familiar and more easily addressed cause of an incident than the individual associated with the act? The extent to which the presumption that the care provider is the source of medical error is pervasive in health care and its literature on error is evident in the title of the IOM report To err is human (Kohn, Corrigan & Donaldson, 1999) and in its primary recommendation to determine health care provider accountability. The IOM report states that one way to learn from errors is from a reporting program and that such programs can serve two functions - they can “ . . . hold providers accountable for performance, or alternatively . . . provide information that can lead to improved safety” (Kohn, Corrigan & Donaldson, 1999, p. 74). According to the report those two functions are not incompatible but can be difficult to satisfy simultaneously. In light of that, the report recommended that an error-reporting program be developed that focuses on the former function, that of provider accountability, that such error reporting be mandatory and that a national database be developed from the error reports. The IOM report also recommended that the latter function of an error-reporting activity - providing information that can lead to improved safety — is in the domain of voluntary reporting. The error reporting for accountability reflects the prevailing definitions of error. Error is defined in terms of the point in process of care an incident occurred such as errors of missed diagnosis, mistakes during treatment, medication mistakes, inadequate postoperative care, and mistaken identity (Gibson & Singh, 2003). Definitions of errors have been differentiated into technical errors reflecting skill failures, judgmental errors that involve the selection of an incorrect strategy of treatment, and normative errors which occur when the larger social values embedded within medicine as a profession are violated (Bosk, 1979). The focus of most of the IOM report, that of provider accountability, is in keeping with those definitions. Indeed, the recommendation for provider accountability perpetuates the presumption that the person is the sole cause of an error and by collecting data only on the provider perpetuates blaming that person. This illustrates the potency of the Stop Rule triggering the attribution of the cause of an error to the easiest explained: the care provider caused the error because Washington Academy of Sciences 31 he or she performed the act led to an unexpected adverse outcome. Because the explanation stopped with the provider, the act is considered as solely of his or her own volition, so reporting errors is of the form of “who did what” - for example. Dr. Surgeon lacerated Mrs Patient’s liver. To address the chilling statistics that 44,000 to 98,000 hospitalized patients die annually because of error in their health care, the IOM report stated that error related research and related efforts were to focus on provider accountability and that the results of those efforts were to reduce the incidence of error by 50% in 5 years. Congress appropriated $50 million per year for those 5 years to meet that goal. At the conclusion of the 5 years, November 2004, a conference was held to determine the extent to which the $250 million in research funding approached the goal of 50% reduction in errors. In considering the findings from that research it was generally concluded that efforts to attain the 50% reduction in error not only failed to meet that goal but the impact of those efforts on error is negligible (Commonwealth Fund, 2004) and that “ . . . little data exist showing progress and researchers are still debating not how to save lives, but what to measure” (Zwillich, 2004). Indeed one presenter stated that many states and private health systems require health workers to report medical errors or near misses in which a patient is put at potential risk, but researchers still have not figured out what to do with the reports once they have them (Wachter, 2004). Despite the lack of empirical support for error reporting for provider accountability as a means of reducing error that approach to the problem persists. Rather than continuing work on a non-productive approach, an alternative should be pursued. The alternative approach is to consider error for what it is. The previously stated definitions of error describe an error, but do not define the process by which an error occurs - that process is an action, a behavior. Behavior has been documented by centuries of research and theory in psychology and the social sciences as well as the physical sciences and millennia of philosophical thought as the interaction of an entity - for the purpose of this discussion a person - with factors in the environment. In light of this evidence-based research, addressing only the individual when considering an error is misleading and inaccurate. Summer 2006 32 Error as Behavior Considering error as behavior provides an action oriented approach to addressing error by identifying those factors in the environment that by affecting the person induce error. It should be noted that it is only those internal and external factors that affect the individual at the time of performing the task either directly or indirectly as the influence of past experience or anticipation of future actions, are to be considered when addressing that person’s behavior (Lewin, 1946/1964). Often in discussing health care error reference is made to the system, which is the health care system. This is not appropriate when considering an error associated with an individual because all aspects of that system do not affect that person (Bogner, 2004a). To even consider them is to confuse the issue to the point of considering an un-analyzable situation. The question then emerges as to how to identify those factors in the complex environment in which health care is provided. Lessons learned through error research by other industries afford a viable means to address that issue. Error research in manufacturing and nuclear power (Moray, 1994, Senders & Moray, 1991, Rasmussen, 1982) identifies categories of interacting factors or systems of factors that affect the person performing a task. Those systems and factors in terms of health care are: the patient (the focus of the task) weight, co-morbidity, name; means of providing care (tools for performing the task) medications, medical devices; the care provider (the person performing the task) stamina, physical characteristics, fatigue. Those systems interact in the context of five systems of environmental factors of: ambient conditions of illumination, temperature, noise, altitude; the physical environment with placement of medical equipment, room size, clutter; the social environment of other care providers and personnel, family members, professional culture; organizational factors such as workload, hours worked, reports, policies for caring for uninsured persons, organizational culture; and legal- regulatory-reimbursement-national culture factors that include threat of litigation, regulatory constraints, reimbursement policies, and national cultural mores. These interacting systems as represented in Figure 1 (Bogner, 2002) can function in a hierarchal manner and often in a reverse ripple effect, that is, impact on the more super-ordinate system of factors impacts those systems below that system or in Figure 1 all those systems within the circle impacted. Washington Academy of Sciences 33 Systems of Influence for the Care Provider Figure 1 In keeping with models of error discussed in terms of food - Swiss cheese (Reason, 1991), an onion (Moray, 1994) - this systems behavior model of error is likened to an artichoke with the care provider at the center as the heart of the artichoke represented in Figure 2. The influence of the systems of factors is represented by the encircling leaves of the Artichoke - when the affect of those systems of factors becomes great, the provider can be Artichoked into a behavior - an error. Application of the Behavior Systems Approach The value of the Artichoke systems approach (Bogner, 2006) is illustrated by the case of the previously mentioned adverse incident in which Dr. Surgeon lacerated Mrs. Patient’s liver. Conforming to the provider accountability requirement of reporting an adverse outcome. Dr. Surgeon reported the incident. The typical response to this is that Dr. Surgeon would be reprimanded in a Mortality and Morbidity session in which the staff discusses cases and could be sued for negligence. The impact of that would be a blow to Dr. Surgeon’s self-esteem and professional pride, a possible increase in his malpractice insurance rate all Summer 2006 34 of which could lead to Dr. Surgeon seriously considering leaving the profession. Alternatively, Dr. Surgeon recorded several factors that affected him in the course of the procedure on an incident worksheet based on the Artichoke systems approach (Bogner, 2000). The names of each of the eight systems of factors in the Artichoke model are listed as a column down the left side of the worksheet with a line for the person reporting the incident to record the factors in the specific system that affected him or her. Provider in Context Figure 2 The names of each of the systems on the worksheet serve as memory aides for the provider in identifying the factors that affected him or her and contributed to the incident. In Dr. Surgeon’s case, he noted that: the patient was morbidly obese, the means of providing care was a laparoscopic also known as keyhole surgical procedure in which the surgeon manipulates instruments with long shafts viewing the surgical site via a small video camera inserted into the site as illustrated in Figure 3. Dr. Surgeon noted that he (the care provider) was short; in the physical environment the operating table could not be lowered sufficiently for the mass of Mrs. Patient’s body to be of optimal height to manipulate the instruments so it was necessary for Dr. Surgeon to stand on a stool and have the foot peddle that operates a certain instrument also placed on the stool. The incident occurred when the foot pedal fell off the stool as Dr. Surgeon reached his foot to operate it. This caused him to be off balance; Washington Academy of Sciences 35 as Dr. Surgeon’s body instinctively lurched to avoid falling off the stool, an instrument he was holding moved and lacerated Mr. Patient’s liver. Figure 3 The information provided by the incident worksheet can be used to reduce the likelihood of such an incident occurring again. It can be forwarded to a designated person who: notifies manufacturers of the need for lower operating tables and more usable laparoscopic instruments, informs the hospital purchasing agent of the importance of considering the body mass of obese patients when acquiring new equipment particularly tables and table-like items such as gurneys and beds, and contacts engineering to install a means to secure foot pedals on stools not only in the operating room (OR) in which the incident occurred, but in all ORs in the facility. The comparison of the two approaches underscores the value of the Artichoke systems approach. Information from the typical error-reporting for provider accountability - the “who did what” approach -addresses only the provider, so the error-inducing conditions of the stress and fatigue from working in an awkward position with attendant muscle fatigue, and the foot pedal falling from stool continue. With the Artichoke approach. Summer 2006 36 the error inducing conditions are identified and addressed and the impact on patient safety can be evaluated. Thus, the Artichoke systems approach provides viable information that can lead to improved safety by reducing the likelihood of errors. This approach also has implications for preventing error through designing the means of providing care. Design Implications The relationship between product design including labeling and information presentation and task performance is the focus of the discipline of human factors or ergonomics. Since the inception of the discipline, which typically is considered as during World War 2, it has guided aspects of the design of weapon systems, airplanes, and a variety of consumer goods; however, its application in health care has been limited. A notable exception is the study of medication errors published in 1960 (Safren & Chapanis, 1960a, 1960b) the findings of which are analogous to those of the Harvard Medical Practice Study (Leape et al, 1991) - the latter findings to a large extent served as the basis for the recommendations of the IOM study (Kohn, Corrigan & Donaldson, 1999). This lack of applications of human factors and ergonomics considerations in health care could reflect the focus of the provider as sole source of error; if only the individual is responsible for the error, there is no need to address the design of the equipment and other aspects of the context in which health care is provided. The Artichoke systems approach by identifying error-inducing contextual factors in each of the eight systems of the Artichoke expands the focus from the provider, the “who”, to contextual factors, the “what”. Given that perspective, human factors and ergonomics considerations can be applied to the interaction of those factors so the context might be designed to positively affect provider performance. Thus, this Artichoke systems approach, which is practical, problem-solving, action oriented, and evidence based not only can reduce error through design by the application of human factors and ergonomics considerations, it also can increase reliability in device use - the fewer errors, the more reliable the performance. This approach also provides a counter-argument to a typical industry response to error involving a medical device that attributes the cause to the user - if the device had been used as intended, the error would not have occurred. There are conditions such as the human constraints of the provider that challenge the “use as intended” admonition. An example is a left handed anesthesiologist writing the legally mandated log of the Washington Academy of Sciences 37 case while squeezing the bag ventilating the patient as illustrated in Figure 4. Paradigm Change to the Behavior Approach to Error By focusing on the perspective of the provider heart of the Artichoke and considering health care as behavior, the care provider is a collaborator in patient safety rather than an adversary and target for blame as in error reporting for provider accountability. Rather than the care providers conforming to an inappropriately designed device, human factors and ergonomics considerations can be applied to information gleaned from applying the Artichoke systems approach incident worksheet to conditions that are considered as hazardous or accidents waiting to happen. This identifies those contextual factors to be addressed so that the device might be designed for use by the range of users in worst-case context including lay persons providing home care. Figure 4 Summer 2006 38 Thus, the design of devices conforms to the care provider in context of use and as such enhances the performance of the provider. This approach by identifying error inducing factors so they may be addressed and changed to be neutral if not performance enhancing affords the means to change the script of health care provider performance. For as a script directs the performance of an actor whoever may be in the role of the script, so do the contextual factors determine the performance of a health care provider whoever he or she may be (Bogner, 2004b). Thus, applying the Artichoke and changing the error-inducing factors affects not only the provider involved in the incident, change affects all providers encountering those contextual factors thus enhancing patient safety. To effectively reduce the incidence of error, it is time, indeed past time, to change the paradigm for addressing health care error from solely considering the “who” to a paradigm that considers the “what” is involved so why an error occurs can be determined and resolved, as represented by the Artichoke systems approach. References Bogner. M. S. (2000) A systems approach to medical error. In C. Vincent & B. DeMol (Eds.), Safety in medicine (pp. 83-100). Amsterdam: Pergamon. Bogner. M. S. (2002) Stretching the search for the ‘why” of error: The systems approach. Journal of Clinical Engineering, 27. 110-115. Bogner, M. S. (2004a) Understanding human error. In M. S. Bogner (Ed.). Misadventures in health care: Inside stories (pp. 41-58). Mahwah. NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Inc. Bogner, M. S. (2004b) All the men and women merely players. In M S. Bogner (Ed ). Misach’entures in health care: Inside stories (pp 165-182). Mahwah. NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. Bogner. M.S. (2006) Prevention of medical errors. In W.S. Marras & W. Karwowski (Eds.), The occupational ergonomics handbook, 2nd Ed. : Interventions, controls, and applications in occupational ergonomics (Chapter 47, pp. 1 - 15). London: CRC Press Taylor & Francis. Bosk. C. (1979) Forgive and remember: Managing medical failures. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Commonwealth Fund (2004) The end of the beginning: Patient safety five years after To err is human. Retrieved July 4, 2006, from http ://www . cmwf.org/publications Newsletter Quality Matters: November Update from The Commonwealth Fund. Gibson. R. & Singh. J.P. (2003) Wall of silence: The untold story of the medical mistakes that kill and injure millions of Americans. Washington. D.C.: Lifeline Press. Kohn, L.T.. Corrigan, J.M.. & Donaldson, M.S. (Eds.), (1999) To Err is Human: Building Washington Academy of Sciences 39 a Safer Health System. Washington. D.C.: National Academy Press. Leape. L. L., Brennan. T. A., Laird. N.. Lawthers. A. G.. Localio. A. R.. Barnes. B. A., et al. (1991) The nature of adverse events in hospitalized patients. New England Journal of Medicine. 324, 377-384. Lewin. K. (1964) Behavior and development as a function of the total situation. In D. Cartwright (Ed.), Field theory in social science (238-303). New York: Harper & Row. (Original work published 1946) Moray. N. (1994) Error reduction as a systems problem. In M. S. Bogner (Ed ). Human error in medicine (pp. 67-92). Hillsdale.NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Inc. Rasmussen. J. (1982) Human Errors: A taxonomy for describing human malfunction in industrial installations. Journal of Occupational Accidents. 4. 3 11-333. Rasmussen. J. (1990) Human error and the problem of causality in analysis of accidents. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. 337, 449-462. Reason. J. (1990) Human error. New York: Cambridge University Press. Safren. M.A. & Chapanis. A. (1960 a) A critical incident study of hospital medication errors — part L Hospitals, JA.HA. 34. 32-66 (May 1). Safren, M.A. & Chapanis. A. (1960b) A critical incident study of hospital medication errors — part 2, Hospitals, JA.HA. 34. 54-68. (May 16). Senders. J.W. & Moray. N.P. (1991) Human Error: Cause, Prediction, and Reduction. Mahwah. NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. Wachter. R. (2004) Analysis in Health Affairs says health system has made insufficient progress since IOM issued landmark medical errors report in 1999. Retrieved July 4. 2006, from http ://ww w . healtlmffai rs. org/press/novdec04( )3 .lit m Zwillich. T. (2004) Little Progress Seen in Patient Safety Measures. Washington: Reuters Health Information . November 2004. Summer 2006 40 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 41 Fatigue, Drowsy Decision-Making and Medical Error: Issues of Quality Health Care@ Gerald P. Krueger, CPE Krueger Ergonomics Consultants Alexandria. Virginia Abstract Health-care providers, particularly interns, residents, and nurses, participate in lengthy workshifts in excess of 10 hours, often work overtime, work through the night, or serve on-call at the hospital for over 24 hours at a stretch. Mam care providers obtain insufficient sleep, worker fatigue and drowsiness creep in. mood and attitudes drift to lower levels, and performance becomes degraded. Health care providers must meet high performance expectations while paying continuous attention during sustained monitoring of patients. When drowsy, they may engage in cntical decision-making while they are less than fully alert. This paper identifies issues of "quality of health care" pertaining to length} hours of work, rotating shiftwork schedules, circadian rhythm physiology effects, sleep loss, and drowsiness, increasing the likelihood of worker fatigue-related error while providing institutional health-care services. General principles for preparing hospital staffs for sustained performance are outlined. Human Error in Around-The-Clock Provision of Health Care Medical personnel at hospitals, nursing homes, and extended care facilities have always been in the forefront of meeting our societal expectations for around-the-clock health care, seven days per week, 365 days per year (/>., 24/7/365). New patients show up at hospital emergency rooms at any time. Many hospitalized patients require continuous care, necessitating full time health care staffing. Elder patients stay in hospitals (v This paper was presented in a symposium on Human Error in Medicine . sponsored by the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society at the Washington Academy of Sciences' Capital Science 2006 Conference at the National Science Foundation, Arlington. VA March 25. 2006. Summer 2006 42 or at nursing homes until they become well enough to return home, or until they succumb to illness or the frailties of old age. Human error in medicine As a prescient soothsayer, Marilyn Sue Bogner’s book: Human Error in Medichie (Bogner 1994) predated the National Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Medicine’s (IOM) 1999 publication To Err is Human. Building a Safer Health System (Kohn, Corrigan & Donaldson, 1999). Both books describe many types of human error that intrude into provision of health care, suggesting that thousands of patients' lives are adversely affected or even shortened by health care provider errors. A subset of medical errors is attributable in part to health care worker fatigue. Drowsy, sleepy, or fatigued health care providers begin to experience a slackening of alertness, lose situational awareness; neglect to monitor a patient’s vital signs properly, fail to detect subtle changes in a patient’s condition, omit taking some action they should have done, or make less crisp and effective judgments (Krueger 1994). Concerns about worker fatigue leading to medical errors range from a physician making an inappropriate diagnosis; referral of a patient to incorrect treatment for specific illnesses; a surgeon operating on the wrong organ or limb; a surgical team leaving sponges or instruments inside a patient’s abdominal cavity; an anesthesiologist failing to monitor a patient’s vital signs or administering the wrong gaseous mix for the patient’s precarious condition; or a treatment nurse misreading a drug order and giving the patient the wrong dose, or even the wrong drug. Medical errors are often multi -factorial, involving human factors such as inattention or poor communication, as well as fatigue (Cook & Woods 1994). In terms of making faulty judgments, medical errors are not readily documented, nor self-reported; and it is difficult to pinpoint health care provider fatigue as a proximal cause of medical errors. Scant direct data shed little light on how frequently an inappropriate or incorrect treatment decision is made while a health care worker, e.g ., an intern or a resident, was overly drowsy. Whether making judgments differently while one is fatigued translates to actual instances of medical error or simply results in “less than crisp” medical decisions (not classified as “errors”) is not easy to determine, even in case studies. Washington Academy of Sciences 43 Drowsy, Tired, Fatigued Health Care Workers Can Affect Quality of Health Care Fatigue and health care providers It is difficult to pinpoint influences of worker fatigue on the incidence of medical errors. Just what are the impacts of fatigue on provision of health care? Such discussion includes questions of: “What is fatigue, and what do we mean by it?” and “What is the role or contribution of fatigue in the workday life of health care providers?” Addressing those questions necessitates pointing out the importance of workers obtaining sufficient quantity’ and quality sleep on a regular daily basis, and normal fluctuations in circadian time-of-day influences on drowsiness, mood, attitude, and on performance (Krueger 1994). Short of witnessing a person falling asleep on the job, studying the effects of fatigue on worker performance in actual workplaces is very time-consuming and not easy to do. Much of what we know about worker fatigue comes from psychology laboratory studies and simulations (Hancock & Desmond 2001). From numerous experiments we know that tiredness or drowsiness does not necessarily result in errors per se. When sustained operations test participants place a high premium on accuracy of their work, they often maintain correctness of response through the onset of drowsiness or fatigue, even after missing significant amounts of needed sleep. Fatigue primarily affects speed of thinking and is almost always accompanied by loss of alertness and measurable degradations in performance on cognitive tasks and even on some psychomotor tasks. In timed laboratory trials, participants tend to make a speed-accuracy tradeoff - that is, in doing the best they can, test participants preserve accuracy, but they tend to slow down their work, and therefore accomplish fewer items of work over time. Generally they may not complete all assigned work (Krueger 1989). However, fatigue often also affects a person’s situational awareness, including the ability to incorporate several sources of data into on-the-spot problem-solving as well as many other cognitive processes. Practical parallels in many workplaces, including health care settings, demonstrate that worker fatigue effects manifest as speed-accuracy tradeoffs, compromises in situational awareness, lessening of attention to important details, and compromises in judgment. “What actually happens when medical care personnel get tired, drowsy, or fatigued?” A review of the published literature on these important questions suggests the answers are more qualitative than Summer 2006 44 quantitative. Poulton, el at. (1978) pointed out physicians have performance deficits on grammatical reasoning tests after sleep deprivation, and they make the classical speed-accuracy tradeoff, but concluded that physicians can, and often do, compensate for effects of sleep loss in both simple and complex psychomotor and cognitive functions. In addressing the lengthy hours of work expected of interns and resident physicians, Gaba and Howard (2002) wrote: . . despite many anecdotes about errors attributed to fatigue, no study has proved that fatigue on the part of health care personnel causes errors that harm patients. Even when impaired clinical performance due to fatigue or falling asleep has allegedly been the cause of specific medical catastrophes, these incidents have been viewed as isolated lapses that do not prove that the safety of patients was systematically jeopardized. It is too simple to suggest that health care providers are different from other workers, able to ward off the effects of fatigue and drowsiness in their work. Extracting from several articles in the literature. Table 1 lists comments made by health care professionals when asked about their sensations, thoughts, and experiences with fatigue in their workplace. Table 1: Health Care Provider Comments on Experience with Fatigue I had difficulty concentrating. I had a depressed mood. I get irritable, I get hostile. _ Feeling hopelessness, passivity, lifeless, demoralized, pessimistic. As the night wears on, we become irritable, argumentative, easily agitated; sometimes tempers fray; we might snap at nurses and fellow workers, pick on people. We become anxious, explosive, or feel very depressed. _ I verbally snapped at fellow workers, the staff, even the patients, in ways that tell me I am getting overly tired and ornery. _ When fatigued, I am not a cheery friend to those to whom 1 usually am so. Reports of inappropriate affect: I inappropriately laughed at things said regarding patients that I would not laugh at if I was well-rested. _ Memory deficit: You immediately forget what you or others just said; or in conversation, you forget what you want to say. _ I didn’t recall whether or not I administered the needed medication; or whether or not I administered the correct drug, or the correct dosage. _ Washington Academy of Sciences 45 I alternate between adrenalin-charged highs when an ambulance arrives and crushingly weary lows when patients die or are transferred. My mind slows after 2 a m. and we all cut comers on even the most routine procedures. I give or gave inappropriate orders or directions to fellow health care workers, i.e. nurses or subordinates that I would have likely given differently if I had been fully alert and awake. I miswrote instructions or memos in the medical charts or records of patients. Misdialing phone numbers, making mistakes in typing out orders, misreading medication prescriptions, bottle labels, etc. I drink lots of caffeinated coffee in an attempt to stay awake or alert. I begin yawning, exaggerate eye-blinking, scratch my head, hit the side of my face or head, to stay awake; feel an insatiable urge to take a nap. I quietly become apathetic, negative, and don’t give a damn; give bad care to patients. Sleep deprivation dangerously impairs judgment, gives a sensation of a sleep-walking nightmare. My reading attention level drops. I have troubles reading medical journal articles or references; must reread passages numerous times; unable to comprehend fine points of prescription drugs in the Physician \s Desk Reference. You recognize you were about to administer the wrong medication or the wrong dose, or use the wrong procedures in setting up equipment, e.g ., administering an IV, or setting up an infusion pump correctly. During internship, under the pressure of sleepless call nights, my worthy aspirations as a medical professional transformed into cynicism. A resident in our program got so impaired by sleep deprivation she fell asleep at the wheel and crashed while returning from a 40-45 hour workshift. (This list is adapted from a variety of sources, with modifications by this author.) Interns , Resident Physicians , House Officers In the 1890s when graduate medical education programs began at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, a resident physician was expected to live at the hospital, work exceedingly long hours, and frequently be “on- call” through the night A resident attended lectures and conferences, was exposed to a broad spectrum of patient cases, and provided health care any Summer 2006 46 time day or night for upwards of 30-40 hours at a stretch, very often without much sleep. Residents stayed near their patients to observe the sequalae of disease over successive days and to witness the impact of medical interventions administered. Modern residency training includes 3-5 years of long, intensive work and study under supervision of senior faculty physicians - so as to obtain substantial hospital clinical experience with patients, intermixed with attending didactic lectures and participating in numerous professional meetings and seminars on specialized research and practice topics (Adler, Werner, & Korsch 1980). The combination of hands-on clinical work and the intensified academic training prepares physicians for practice in medical or surgical specialties. Today’s interns and residents work dayshifts lasting 8 to 12 hours, along with working a night call shift every 2 to 4 nights. Residents typically do not sleep much during night-call shifts, yet are expected to continue their training the following day. There are only 168 hrs in a 7-day week; but some residents reported working shifts of from 18 to 60 hours duration, with every other night on-call, and accumulations of more than 120-130 work hours per week. These circumstances can involve severe drowsiness and sleepiness, with an accompanying loss of situational awareness or alertness, contributing to the likelihood of medical errors associated with fatigue. During on-call shifts, sleep obtained during brief slack periods tends to be intermittent, interrupted, non-restorative sleep. When an ambulance arrives, emergency room interns who are temporarily asleep, perhaps napping, are abruptly awakened to respond to the arrival of new patients. Arousing from a short sleep in the middle of the night commonly produces an experience of sleep inertia - bouts of severe grogginess and incomplete arousal attributable to awakening from the deeper stages of sleep (stage 3 & 4 sleep). Sleep inertia can last 10-20 minutes. A person experiencing sleep inertia can act confused, exhibit poor memory, and demonstrate inferior decision-making (Bruck & Pisani 1999). It is common for residents or interns to experience bouts of acute fatigue, accompanied by sleep inertia after awakening from naps. Due to today’s medical advances and concern for cutting costs, patient stays in hospitals are shorter then a decade ago. With rotating workshifts, and more hand-off of patients among health care providers, today’s resident no longer spends as much time watching a patient’s disease progress. Having interns work 24+hour on-call schedules provides Washington Academy of Sciences 47 teaching hospitals with necessary personnel -related efficiencies netting obvious cost savings by employing residents as relatively “cheap labor’1 (Steinbrook 2002). Sleep deprivation, extreme drowsiness, and resultant fatigue in the medical workplace are identified as some of the several major sources of stress in residency (Colford & McFee 1989) prompting interns and residents to declare they suffer from chronic fatigue during residency. However, many in the medical profession argue that sleep- depriving night-call is a valid learning experience and quality of care is not compromised by sleep-deprived physicians (Asken & Raham 1983). Traditional on-call assignments still are deemed necessary as part of resident training. Thus, for over 100 years, not much has changed regarding the exceedingly long duty hours for medical residents. Large numbers of today’s residents are more likely to be older than was true fifty years ago; many residents have families or other commitments outside the hospital. Over 50% of medical residents in the United States are women, with unique considerations such as childcare needs. These facts complicate life and affect how residencies are managed in today’s medical schools. Few studies focused solely on how extended duty hours affect the home life of resident physicians; but we do know that medical workers on sustained schedules, including residents, are involved in significant numbers of traffic accidents driving home after lengthy hospital workshifts (Barger el a/. 2005). Many stressors combine to affect resident life, but it is unclear that extended duty hours themselves are responsible for negative consequences in health care (Liskowsky 1991). Residents and interns working lengthy schedules invoke a vision of drowsy young doctors making important health care decisions while they are sleep-deprived, when their attention levels are not as crisp, and when they might fail to correctly grasp nuances of some medical maladies of their patients’ cases. Do drowsy residents make judgments or medical decisions which are not fully appropriate for the circumstances at hand? Sleep deprivation impairs decision-making involving the unexpected innovation (or involving innovation), revising plans, and competing distractions, as well as interfering with effective communication (Krueger 1994). These are all involved in making accurate diagnosis and prescribing the best treatments for tricky medical cases that may arise while resident physicians are sleepily working their way through on-call duty. Although no studies captured performance measures with physicians on unexpected, innovative, plan revision, communication-laden decision-making circumstances, it is tempting to connect the intuitive link Summer 2006 48 between worker fatigue and degradation in decision-making performance. We would dread having sleepy residents in the middle of the night making life-determining decisions for our medical case at the emergency ward. Most laboratory studies of performance decrement effects of sleep deprivation employ “probe tests,” simple tasks (e.g., vigilance, reaction time, and short term memory) known to be sensitive to sleep deprivation and representative of the attention-demanding requirements of dull, monotonous monitoring tasks in everyday jobs. Studies of sleep deprivation indicate resident physician performance is impaired for some, but not all tasks; task performance decrements are similar to those for psychological tests sensitive to sleep loss (Samkoff & Jacques 1991). A 30-year old study by Goldman, McDonough, and Rosemond (1972) found substantial decrements in the performance of surgical interns after obtaining too little sleep on-call nights. Following one night of sleep loss, interns exhibited poor planning skills, inferior surgical technique, and committed more errors. After night on-call duty, sleep-deprived interns, exhibit poorer concentration (Robbins & Gottlieb 1990); compromised language and numeric skills (Hawkins et al. 1985); degraded retention of information (Hart et al 1987); and fleeting short term memory (Rubin et al 1991). After missing one night’s sleep, surgeons were more prone to errors and performed slower on a laparoscopy simulator (Taffinder et al. 1998). Whereas, Reznick & Folse (1987) found no performance differences between sleep-deprived and rested surgery residents on a comprehensive psychomotor test battery. Fatigue is common for members of surgical teams who repeatedly become involved in long, complicated operative cases such as intricate neurosurgeries that sometimes take from 12 to 20+ hours to complete (Greenberg 1997). In a 24-hour performance study, emergency physicians made more errors on a simulated triage test and while intubating a training mannequin (Smith-Coggins et al. 1997). Other studies of impaired performance by “fatigued” residents and interns found: evaluation and interpretation of electrocardiograms wanting (Lingenfelser et al 1994); excessive time was required to review and mistakes were made with telemetered ECG data (Friedman, Bigger, & Komfeld 1971); inconsistent response times monitoring of anesthesia during simulated surgery (Denisco, Drummond, & Gravenstein 1987); general degradations in cognitive performance (Jacques, Lynch, & Samkoff 1990), lapses in memory and slower responses (Hart et al , 1987); mistakes while ordering medications and documenting medical Washington Academy of Sciences 49 histories (Gottlieb et al. 1991); compromised clinical problem solving (Rubin et at. 1991; Nelson et al. 1995), and stresses in radiology residencies (Christensen et al. 1977). Less easily quantified are the negative affects such as poor mood or communications and the interactions a sleepy care provider has with patients (Deary & Tait 1987). Resident physicians in training readily report more negative feelings and less concern about their patients when they are suffering from insufficient sleep on-call (Orton & Gruzelier 1989). Wallerstein, Rosner, and Wallace (1989) reported rested interns had better moods, felt more vigor, less fatigue, and more elation. Baldwin, Dodd and Wrate (1997) reported numerous concerns for the health and the psychological stresses, even clinical depression of interns, resident physicians, and student nurses. Some stresses noticeably affect family issues and in some cases prompt divorces (Nelson & Henry 1978). Residents Interns Workshift Honrs There have been several attempts to assess and propose ways to cut down on resident fatigue in training programs ( e.g . Richardson et al. 1996). Although different traditional workshift lengths have been examined for nurses, there are only a few comparison studies for physicians. In comparing 8- vs 12-hour shifts for emergency physicians, Thomas, Schwartz and Whitehead (1994) found only insignificant differences in performance. In the 1980s some medical school training programs developed the night-float rotation system , whereby residents work a series of from 5 to 15 consecutive nights on-call without any daytime work activities and are permitted to sleep during the day. The night-float rotation system gives day-residents greater opportunity to sleep at night and produces high levels of satisfaction among residents; but, those on night float reported lower sleep quality and duration, mood changes, less vigor, slower thought processes, and some depression, claiming their attention levels were unchanged, but admitted to more errors of omission, and fatigue inertia (Cavallo, Ris, & Succop 2003). Although the night-float rotation system has intuitive appeal, the full impact of this system is not clear, and there is room for more study of how best to integrate it into modern residency training. Another contributor to the shortage of sleep and free time of medical residents is the large amount of moonlighting (overtime work) they undertake. Moonlighting shifts are often at odd work hours and are disruptive to normal sleep patterns. Presumably, the driving incentive is to Summer 2006 50 earn the extra money moonlighting offers. Nearly half of all emergency medicine residents in the United States partake in moonlighting (Li, Tabor, & Martinez 2000); as many as 65 per cent of internal medicine residents and fellows moonlight (McCue, Janiszewski, & Stickley 1990). Moonlighting is common among other residencies and fellowships as well (Majidian el al 1993). New Work Hour Limits for Residents and Interns A New York hospital incident in 1984 stimulated public concern about fatigued interns and residents, triggering attempts to limit resident hours of work. Ms Libby Zion was admitted to a hospital emergency room, where she was treated by an intern and a junior resident; but she died several hours later. Both the intern and the resident had been on duty for 18+ hours prior to her admission. It was alleged they failed to properly monitor their patient, and that they prescribed medications contraindicated in light of her history of drug and medication use. Additionally, they were not properly supervised by a senior supervisory physician (Asch & Parker 1988). This case prompted much publicity and discussion about overwork in medical residency programs (Green 1995). The resulting campaign to limit the number of work shift hours of interns and residents in New York caught on across the country. (Daughtery, Baldwin & Rowley 1998 ACGME 2003). After the 1999 IOM study of medical error, sensitivity to patient safety issues has been heightened more generally. The US medical profession, and some state legislatures, are implementing reform plans to restrict hospital work schedule lengths by developing hours of service (HOS) limiting rules for residents similar to those in place for transportation operators and controllers of nuclear power plants. The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME), the accrediting body for 7,800 graduate medical education programs in 118 specialties in the United States worked two decades to establish limits to duty hours of resident physicians and interns. Effective in July 2003, ACGME’s new approved rules limited work hours for medical students to no more than 80 hours a week (averaged over a 4- week period) and limited shift duration to no longer than 24 hours, with at least a minimum of 10 hrs off-duty between workshifts. Residents must have at least one full day (24-hours) out of seven free of educational and clinical care responsibilities (averaged over 4-weeks). Residents must not Washington Academy of Sciences 51 be assigned in-house call more often than every third night (averaged over 4-weeks). Continuous time-on-duty including in-house call must not exceed 24 consecutive hours, with additional time (up to six hours) for inpatient and outpatient continuity, transfer of care, educational debriefing and formal didactic activities. Residents may not assume responsibility for new patients after 24 hours. Since moonlighting to perform other patient care activities may be inconsistent with interns obtaining enough rest/sleep, these activities require prospective permission from program directors and sponsoring institutions, and resident performance must be monitored. ( www.acgme.org ) ACGME’s new rules emphasize faculty supervision to ensure safe patient care and resident learning. Faculty and residents are to be educated to recognize the signs of worker fatigue and to apply preventive and operational countermeasures. A medical school program director and the faculty are to monitor residents for the effects of sleep loss and fatigue, and are to respond when fatigue may be detrimental to resident performance and his/her well-being. The new hours limitations have enormous cost implications as the need for additional hospital staffing increased (Weinstein 2002; Steinbrook 2002). However, if the new work-hours rules are not followed ACGME threatens to withdraw a teaching hospital’s accreditation, which could cost training hospitals millions of dollars in federal funding. To emphasize the seriousness of the changes, in July 2003, after it was determined that several first-year residents worked almost 90 hours per week, the Johns Hopkins Hospital’s accreditation was compromised for five months until it restructured workshifts to comply with the new standards. After two years experience with ACGME’s common duty hours, a confidential Internet survey of over 50,000 residents indicates many residency programs are using innovative approaches to restructure duty hour schedules for residents and the vast majority of residency programs are complying with the new duty hour rules (ACGME Press Release, September 2005). However, it is also clear that the rules’ several extenuating circumstances, ( e.g ., averaging over 4-weeks, etc.) have provided sufficient “wiggle-room” for there to be internal scheduling tradeoffs that somewhat thwart the spirit and intent of the rules to prevent intern and resident fatigue. Summer 2006 52 Nurses, Shiftwork, & Fatigue The literature contains reports of numerous studies of shiftwork schedules for nurses: presenting examinations of job performance via self- reported or supervisor-rated measures; patient ratings of quality of care received; use of sick-days and health services by nurses; and nurses’ preferences for particular shift schedules. Just as it is with interns and residents, the “whole person” is of concern; for many factors play into provision of excellent nursing care. Nurses work a variety of non-daytime shifts, and endure circadian rhythm disruption not just for the duty-time at work, but often chronically over the duration of their professional and personal lives. While the likelihood of nursing care errors attributable to sleep loss, waning alertness, cognitive fatigue, and circadian disruption are addressed here, it must also be acknowledged that nurses often experience physical fatigue while administering to patients, especially while repeatedly helping bed-ridden patients move about in hospital rooms and nursing centers. Shiftwork schedules that are more compatible with circadian rhythm physiology and which permit nurses to obtain more quality sleep, should result in less fatigued, more alert nurses on the job. However, many other variables involved with shiftwork make problematic the delineation of fatigued nurses per se. Nurses’ reasons for agreeing to work particular shifts involve personal schedule preferences, the need for child care at home, worries of personal security in dark hospital parking lots, salary differences, desires to work overtime or not, electing to work longer hours over fewer days in trade for more successive days off from work, perceived control over their jobs, and other family reasons and indicators of worker satisfaction or dissatisfaction. Determinations of whether nurses’ work schedules affect levels of alertness on the job or increase fatigue-related medical error is difficult for more than a case-by-case basis. Nurses’ workshift schedules generally follow six basic scheduling schemes (Liskowsky 1991): (1) Traditional 8-hour day shifts, 5 days per week, with 15-30 minutes tacked on for transfer/changeover of patient care to incoming personnel; rotation to different start times is on a one week change-over cycle (start times usually are 7 a.m., 3 p.m., or 11 pm.); Washington Academy of Sciences 53 (2) “4 to 40” - four 10-hour shifts, followed by three days off-duty; (3) “Baylor Plan” - two or three 12-hour shifts for separate 2-3 day weekend staffing; while regular staff works traditional five 8-hour shifts the Monday -Friday workweek, (4) “7-on, 7-off’ - working seven days or nights of 10-hour shifts on alternate 70-hr work weeks, with the intervening week off-duty; (5) “12-hour shifts” - three 12-hour shifts one week, then four 12-hr shifts the next week; (6) “Customized schedules” - choice of many combinations of shift lengths, start and end times. Scheduling has been a major source of stress among hospital nurses. In 1991, the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment estimated one-third of all RNs worked some combination of day, evening, and night shifts, including rotating all three shifts; only 7 per cent of RNs had every weekend off (Liskowsky, OTA 1991). Younger, less experienced nurses tend to be assigned to rotating shifts, and more experienced nurses are assigned the more desirable dayshifts. Many US hospitals pay extra for evening and nightshift work, but not for weekends. Nurses draw 1.5 times as much pay for overtime work; and many nurses like to amass their weekly working hours in 12-hr shifts to obtain more consecutive days off. Supervisors rate quality of nursing care; or it may be measured in terms of nursing care process ( e.g ., chart audits of following planned procedures). Other indicators of quality include incident reports of medication errors, accidents or injuries, and occasionally patient ratings of satisfaction with care received. Nurses themselves may occasionally experience adverse circumstances in the workplace (e.g., administering an incorrect drug or dose) but they do not readily attribute drowsiness or fatigue with a contributory role in the outcome of some decision-making or action they took or that they should have taken on a patient’s behalf. Nurses’ shiftwork schedules, or working extended duty hours, are among several factors contributing to medical incidents in hospitals or nursing homes, but, as with the physicians, it is difficult to partial out the effects of drowsiness or fatigue of nursing care providers on the likelihood of medical errors. Although there are numerous studies of the effects of shiftwork on nurses, few studies directly examined the relationship between nursing shiftwork schedules and job task performance, or match schedule effects Summer 2006 54 to indicators of quality of patient care. In a pediatrics unit, when comparing the 4-to-40 workweek (four 10-hr workshifts per week) to the traditional 8-hr, 5-dayshift system, process measures did not differentiate; but staff reports showed the 4-to-40 schedule made improvements in quality of intershift continuity of care (Kent 1972). In a comparison of 12- hr shifts to 8-hr shifts for nurses in an intensive care unit Eaton and Gottselig (1980) found no significant differences between types of shift for reaction time measures of alertness, or for self-ratings of fatigue. Although reaction times on the 12-hour shift were faster for day shift than for nightshift nurses, quality of nursing care was deemed not to have changed. In a similar study in a surgical intensive care unit adopting 12-hr shifts, some nurses reported increased subjective feelings of fatigue, and decreased accuracy was reported on some performance tests; but evidence from chart audits revealed no significant changes in quality care, and the nurses themselves reported they thought their performance actually had improved (Mills, Arnold, & Wood 1983). In another study, RNs in intensive care units on 12-hr vs. 8-hr shifts volunteered comments about experiencing more fatigue; but ratings of patient care were not substantially different (Nelson & Blasdell 1988). Most shiftwork studies address the issue of whether regular shiftworkers obtain sufficient sleep. All shiftworkers adopt sleep patterns different from a “normal daytime worker” and, in so doing, most, especially night workers, experience deficits in the quality and the quantity of sleep, generally obtaining about an hour less sleep per 24-hr day (Scott 1990). An early NIOSH study reported nurses on rotating shifts, or even on fixed nightshifts, experienced more problems with sleep, as compared to nurses who worked dayshifts or fixed afternoon swing shifts; and rotating shift nurses exhibited higher rates of digestive disorders than other nurses (Tasto el ctl. 1978). Those on fixed nightshifts reported obtaining the least sleep overall. Harma, Ilmarinen, and Knauth (1988) reported nurses on irregular rotating shifts experienced decreased sleep duration after nightshift work. Gadbois (1981) also described how women nurses on fixed nightshifts reported shorter sleep durations, with more frequent sleep interruptions for married women with children than for unmarried women. After working the nightshift, mothers with young children went to bed later in the day than did the unmarried women. Nurses working rotating shifts and nightshifts involving only a few nights on duty tend to have more sleep disturbances than other nurses. The greatest disruption of family and social life occurs for nurses on rotating shifts. Nurses who are Washington Academy of Sciences 55 also mothers express dissatisfaction with time available to be with their children (Liskowsky, OTA 1991). On March 13, 2006, the American Nurses Association requested the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in its 2006 National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA) give priority to sponsoring additional research on nursing care and fatigue. Advice and Discussion Points This article provides only a cursory review of some of the concerns for the risk of health care provider fatigue influencing the likelihood of medical errors. It should prompt discussion among managers and supervisors in medical institutions about what to do to manage worker alertness and fatigue. Based upon substantial prior experience as an operator fatigue subject matter expert consultant to US military forces, and to the long haul truck driving community, this author offers two lists of hints for reducing the risks of worker fatigue in health care settings. Advice for institutional health care managers and supervisors The 1994 chapter in Bogner’s first edition of Human Error in Medicine (Krueger, 1994) ended with basic pointers regarding fatigue, performance, and medical error. Those not-so-simple hints which are still valid today are amplified here in a 12-step fatigue management program for hospital and nursing home management staff. If supervisors want to help their employees reduce risks of worker fatigue, which can contribute to costly human errors in provision of health care, they are advised to: 1. Allocate adequate staffing for around-the-clock operations. Scrutinize rosters for under-staffing in peak periods; rectify staffing discrepancies. 2. Cross-train several workers for the same tasks so they will be able to spell or relieve one another, permitting periodic rest breaks. 3. Train staff to perform tasks so well (over-learning) that they are less likely to be subject to fatigue effects. Acknowledged, it is difficult to over-learn medical care decision-making. 4. Honor known bodily circadian rhythm principles when designing shiftwork schedules. Summer 2006 56 5. Schedule rest breaks during long work sessions, especially at high fatigue risk periods (mid-afternoon, and from 1 to 5 a.m). 6. Approve implementation of fatigue countermeasures, including infusing short nap-taking into some workshifts ( e.g . night calls); provide a good place to take naps; emphasize recognition of sleep inertia. 7. Stress importance of rest and sleep for an alert staff. Implement a training program on worker alertness and fatigue. 8. Encourage employees to eat nutritious meals. Ensure ready access to healthy food choices. 9. Learn to recognize signs of fatigue in medical staff personnel. ACGME’s new work hour rules require both faculty and residents to be educated to recognize the signs of fatigue, and to apply preventive and operational countermeasures. Internship program directors and faculty must monitor residents for effects of sleep loss and fatigue, and respond when fatigue may be detrimental to resident performance and well-being. 10. Bring in a worker-fatigue expert to provide alertness and fatigue management assessment and training for all employees, especially those at high fatigue risk (i.e., nurses, interns, residents). 11. Become knowledgeable of the circumstances surrounding the numerous shift schedule issues of your institution. Do not tamper; but offer an understanding ear to those who are making the schedules and to those who are living them. 12. Set the example and develop a sleep management / sleep discipline plan for yourself; and then encourage others to do likewise. Mastering alertness and coping with worker fatigue for health care providers Health care providers (hospital and nursing home employees) must learn to cope with shiftwork, long working hours, and shortage of sleep. They must learn to recognize waning alertness, the onset of worker fatigue, and know what to do about it. The following pointers may be of some help: 1 . For supervisors and those at risk of worker fatigue, a good place to start is by attending the Institution’s training course on mastering alertness and managing health care provider fatigue. 2. Rotating one’s shiftwork schedule every couple days or weeks (forward or backward on the clock) forces our physiology to make Washington Academy of Sciences 57 adjustments to resynchronize our circadian biological timing system (suprachiasmatic nuclei). 3. Rapid rotations of one’s work schedule cause physiological discomforts, and disrupts ability to acquire the right amount of sleep. Learning principles of circadian rhythm physiology and workshift scheduling may help workers sort out the best ways to cope with arduous work hours. 4. Generally, working longer than 12 hours in a row at almost anything increases risk of worker fatigue. Try to avoid working double shifts that go beyond 12-hours of continuous work. (On-call residents will often be required to make exceptions to this admirable goal). 5. Workshifts requiring some night work ( e.g ., swing and midnight shifts) often result in the worker obtaining approximately 1.2 hours less sleep per day. 6. Adults operate reasonably well with 7-8 hours of sleep in every 24- hour period. Obtaining sleep in long continuous bouts (4+ hours) is preferred to taking numerous shorter sleeps (naps). 7. It is important to augment shorter sleeps with naps to reach a goal of 7-8 hrs of sleep in every 24-hr period. 8. With daily shortages of sleep we accumulate a sleep debt which biologically we must pay back to our brain and body. It is critically important to obtain extra long sleeps on days off (recovery sleep), to make up for our accumulated sleep debt, and to restore alertness. 9. Develop a list of signs of “waning alertness, onset of fatigue” symptoms, to be able to recognize the onset of fatigue, and know what to do about it. 10. Be knowledgeable and attuned to possible fatigue countermeasures available; learn to use them. Education and trial and error of various techniques can help. References Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (2003). Common program requirements, resident duty hours language (final requirements), and residency review committee procedures for granting duty hours exceptions. lit tp : //www' . ac gme . org Summer 2006 58 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (2005). September 2005 press release on first two years of medical school experiences with the new duty hours limitations for interns and resident physicians, http ://www .acgme.org Adler. R.. Werner. 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Effects of sleep disruption on cognitive performance and mood in medical house officers. British Medical Journal Clinical Research & Education. 295, 1513-1516. Denisco. R.A.. Drummond. J.N.. & Gravenstein. J.S. (1987). The effect of fatigue on the performance of a simulated anesthetic monitoring task. Journal of Clinical Monitoring. 3. 22-24. Eaton. P. & Gottselig. S. (1980). Effects of longer hours, shorter week for intensive care nurses. Dimensions in Health Sen’ice , 57. (8). 25-27. Freidmaa R.C., Bigger, J.T.. & Komfeld. D.S. (1971). The intern and sleep loss. New' England Journal of Medicine. 285. 201-203. Gaba. D M. & Howard. S.K. (2002). Fatigue among clinicians and the safety of patients. New1 England Journal of Medicine. 347. 1249-1255. Gadbois. C. (1981). Women on night shift: Interdependence of sleep and off-the-job activities. In: Night and Shift Work: Biological and Social Aspects. Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Night and Shift Work. Oxford: Pergamon Press. Goldman. L.I.. McDonough, M.T.. & Rosemond. G.P. (1972). Stresses affecting surgical performance and learning. I: Correlation of heart rate, electrocardiogram, and Washington Academy of Sciences 59 operation simultaneously recorded on videotapes. Journal of Surgical Research , 12. 83-86. Gottlieb. D.J., Parenti. C M.. Peterson. C.A.. & Lofgren. R.P. (1991). Effect of change in housestaff work schedule on resource utilization and patient care. Archives of Internal Medicine. 151, 2065-2070. Green, M.J. (1995). What if anything is wrong with residency overwork? Annals of Internal Medicine . 1 23. 5 1 2-5 1 7. Greenberg. M.S. (1997). Handbook of Neurosurgery. Vol. 4. Lakeland. FL: Greenberg Graphics, Inc. Hancock. P.A. & Desmond. P.A. (Ed.). (2001). Stress, workload, and fatigue. Mahwah. NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Publishers. Harma, M., Ilmarinen, I, & Knauth. P. (1988). Physical fitness and other individual factors relating to the shift work tolerance of women. Chronobiology International. 5, 417-424. Hart. R.P.. Buchsbaum, D.G., Wade. J.B., Hamer. R.M.. & Kwentuus, J.A. (1987). Effect of sleep deprivation on first-year residents' response times, memory, and mood. Journal of Medical Education. 62. 940-942. Hawkins. M R.. Vichick, D.A.. Silsby. H.D.. Kruzich. & D.J.. Butler. R. (1985). Sleep and nutritional deprivation and performance of house officers. Journal of A ledical Education. 60. 530-535 . Jacques. C.H.. Lynch. J.C.. & Samkoff. J.S. (1990). The effects of sleep loss on cognitive performance of resident physicians. Journal of Family Practice. 30. 223-229. Kent. L.A. (1972). The 4-40 workweek on trial. American Journal of Nursing. 72, 683- 686. Kohn. L.T.. Corrigan. J.M.. & Donaldson, M.S. (Eds ). (1999). To err is human: Building a safer health system. Washington. DC: Institute of Medicine. National Academy of Sciences Press. Krueger, G.P. (1994). Fatigue, performance and medical error. In: M.S. Bogner(Ed.). Human error in medicine (Chapter 14, pp. 311-326). Hillsdale. NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Publishers. Krueger, G.P. (1989). Sustained work, fatigue, sleep loss and performance: A review of the issues. Work and Stress. 3, (2), 1 29- 141. Li. J.. Tabor. R.. & Martinez. M. (2000). Surv ey of moonlighting practices and work requirements of emergency medicine residents. American Journal of Emergency Medicine. 18. 147-151. Lingenfelser. T.H.. Kaschel. R., Weber, A., Zaiser-Kaschel, H.. Jabober. B.. & Kuper, J. (1994). Young hospital doctors after night duty: Their task-specific cognitive status and emotional condition. Medical Education. 28. 566-572. Liskowsky. D.R. (Ed.). (1991). Biological rhythms: Implications for the worker (U.S. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. Report No. OTA-BA-463). Washington. DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Majidian. A M.. Brinker. M R.. Rice. J.C. & Kerstcin. M.D. (1993). Moonlighting in a university surgical training program. Southern Medical Journal. 86. 441-446. McCue. J.D.. Janiszewski. M. & Stickley. W.T. (1990). Residents' views of the value of moonlighting. Archives of Internal Medicine. 150. 1511-1513. Mills. M E.. Arnold. B.. & Wood. C M. (1983). Core-12: A controlled study of the impact of 12-hour scheduling. Nursing Research. 32. 356-361. Summer 2006 60 Nelson. B.J. & Blasdell. A.L. (1988). Comparing quality on eight- and twelve-hour shifts. Nursing Management. 19. (11). 64A-64H. Nelson, C.S.. Dell' Angela. K.. Jellish. W.S.. Brown. I.E.. & Skaiedoff. M. (1995). Residents' performance before and after night call as evaluated by an indicator of creative thought. Journal of the American Osteopathic Association. 95. 600- 603. Nelson. F. & Henry. W. (1978). Psychosocial factors seen as problems by family practice residents and their spouses. Journal of Family Practice. 6. 581-589. Orton. D.I. & Gruzelier. J.H. (1989). Adverse changes in mood and cognitive performance of house officers after night duty . British Medical Journal. 298. 21-23. Poulton. E.C.. Hunt. G.M.. Carpenter. A.. & Edwards. R.S. (1978). The performance of junior hospital doctors following reduced sleep and long hours of work. Ergonomics. 21. 279-295. Resnick. R.K.. & Folse. J.R. (1987). Effect of sleep deprivation on the performance of surgical residents. American Journal of Surgery. 154. 520-525. Richardson. G.S.. Wyatt. J.K., Sullivan. J.P.. Orav. E.J.. Ward. A.E.. Wolf. M.A.. & Czeisler. C.A. (1996). Objective assessment of sleep and alertness in medical house staff and the impact of protected time for sleep. Sleep. 19. 718-726. Robbins, J. & Gottlieb. F. (1990). Sleep deprivation and cognitive testing in internal medicine house staff. Western Journal of Medicine. 12. 82-86. Rubin. R.. Orris. P.. Lau. S.L., Hryhorczuk. D O.. Fumer. S.. & Letz. R. (1991). Neurobehavioral effects of the on-call experience in housestaff physicians. Journal of Occupational Medicine, 33. 13-18. Samkoff. J.S. & Jacques. C.H.M. (1991). A review of studies concerning effects of sleep deprivation and fatigue on residents' performance. Academic Medicine. 66. 687-693. Scott, A.J. (Ed.) (1990). Occupational medicine: Shiftwork, state of the art reviews. Philadelphia. PA: Hanley & Belfus. Smith-Coggins. R.. Rosekind. M R.. Buccino. K.R.. Dinges. D.F.. & Moser. R.P (1997). Rotating shiftwork schedules: Can we enhance physician adaptation to night shifts? Academic Emergency Medicine 4. 95 1 -96 1 . Steinbrook. R. (2002). The debate over residents' work hours. New England Journal of Medicine. 347. 16. 1296-1302. Taffinder. N.J.. McManus, I.C., Gul. Y.. Russell. R.C.. & Darzi. A. (1998). Effect of sleep deprivation on surgeons' dexterity on laparoscopy simulator. The Lancet. 352, 1191 Tasto. D.L.. Colligan. M.J., Skjei, E.W., et al. (1978). Health consequences of shift work. Cincinnati. OH. U S. Department of Health and Human Serv ices. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Thomas. H., Schwartz. E.. & Whitehead. D C. (1994). Eight- versus 12-hour shifts: Implications for emergency physicians. Annals of Emergency Medicine. 23. 1096-1100. Walerstein. S.J., Rosner. F.. & Wallace. E.Z. (1989). House staff stress. New} York State Journal of Medicine. 89, 454-457. Weinstein. D. (2002). Duty hours for resident physicians: Tough choices for teaching hospitals. New' England Journal of Medicine. 347 . 16. 1275-1278. Washington Academy of Sciences The Role of Academies of Science in the Critical Examination of New Ideas: Looking at Gaia Frank R. Haig, S.J., and Peg Kay* 61 Abstract In science, new ideas have to fight for acceptance. The process is essential to ensure the founded confidence of the scientific community. There is a continuum ranging from speculation at one end through theory to fact at the other end. This paper deals with the role of Academies of Science in encouraging the widest possible discussion of legitimate theories. The Gaia Theory of the earth as a self-regulating system is used as an example of the type of controversial theory that benefits from scientific discussion. A description of the Gaia Conference follows the paper. "A scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." -Max Planck Facts, Theories, and Speculation In science a new idea has to fight its way to acceptance. The path may be long and conflicted. The opposition may be intense and tortuous. The process, however, is necessary to ensure the emergence of a founded confidence on the part of the broad scientific community. Perhaps one of the most famous examples of the opposition a new theory can meet comes in the case of Alfred Wegener and his concept of what we now call continental drift and plate tectonics. Wegener started presenting his theory in 1912. The scientific community reacted with ridicule and derision. His personal treatment by colleagues was almost brutal. His work, however, is now considered by many the most important element of progress in the Earth sciences of the 20th century. Nonetheless, Wegener was never able to obtain a university position in his native Germany. *Both authors are past presidents of the Academy Summer 2006 62 Wegener’s major problem was that he could propose no mechanism for continental drift. And so, this theory was subjected to intense criticism. Perhaps also there was a feeling that he was out of his field. After all, his doctorate was in astronomy, not geophysics or anything related. Science, however, cannot afford to let ideas sweep through a field the way social fads do in modern society. Consider the case of Trofim Lysenko, a Russian biologist who became the darling of Joseph Stalin. In a famous speech in 1929 Stalin extolled practical scientists against the more theoretical ones who joyfully spent their days studying fruit flies while a famine raged all around them. Lysenko was a former country boy who could inspire peasant farmers who had been largely turned off by Stalin’s collectivization projects. Lysenko did not believe in careful bench work in agriculture. His ideas were a mixture of Lamarkianism1 and other half examined notions. There was no control from the profession. In fact, he waged a bitter and savage campaign against established scientists with the happy support of the NKVD, the then Soviet secret police. It took some time after the death of Stalin for Soviet science to break free from Lysenkoism. Science requires a self-discipline to remain out of the clutches of charlatans and ideologues. New ideas cannot and should not expect to win easy victories. THE ROLE OF ACADEMIES OF SCIENCE Academies of science have a special role in the exposition and critical examination of new ideas. They provide a willing but intelligent audience to which an innovator can make a presentation. In so doing, academies do not endorse such theories. They only allow them to be easily and widely exhibited and so begin their battle to achieve confirmation and acceptance or relegation to the dustbins of history. Of course, academies of science start with an established concept of what science is. Academies are not in the business of providing platforms for mountebanks and crack-pots. There exists, therefore, a filter that academies use to select concepts worthy of consideration. Washington Academy of Sciences 63 WHAT IS A THEORY? To begin with, there exist certain known facts. Cooling water under normal conditions will result in its freezing. Under normal conditions, a cubic foot of lead is more massive than a cubic foot of hydrogen. In the healthy human body, blood circulates through the structure. There is a body of statements not dependent on opinion. At the other extreme there are statements that are of the order of guesses, speculations, initial conjectures not yet subjected to verification. A theory may start in such an environment. Unfortunately, many people unacquainted with science take the word “theory” to mean such untested conjectures. But for scientists a theory must link together facts, show their interrelationships, and present some kind of a model that makes the situation intelligible. Even more, it must at some point exhibit verifications so that the theory can be confirmed or rejected. Only then does an idea move to the status of being a theory. Every field of developed science has such fundamental structures that have been hammered out over time and through repeated critical evaluation. Wegener’s plate tectonics, Mendel’s genetics, Newton’s explanation of the tides, Darwin’s evolution, big bang cosmology, and more. All are subject to analysis and revision as new data become available or new understandings emerge. A classical example is the Michelson-Morley experiment. In Michelson’s day. Maxwell’s laws of the electromagnetic field were a prized possession. Maxwell, however, used a concept of the ether to hold his ideas together. Michelson decided to measure the motion of the earth through that strange entity. His experiment was brilliantly conceived and meticulously carried out. After all, Michelson was one of the greatest experimentalists the human race has ever produced. But the result was a null value. Ether could not be shown to exist. It is not totally clear whether this experiment was the motivation of the re-thinking Einstein then produced in his 1905 Theory of Special Relativity. But it could have been. To this day it is easy to explain the Theory of Relativity by starting from the Michelson-Morley experiment. Einstein himself seems to have been thinking in a different direction in his original work in the field. The point, however, is that the Michelson- Morley experiment and the Theory of Special Relativity exhibited a Summer 2006 64 reformulation of Newton’s rich concepts of space and time. New data and new insights can refashion even seemingly established theories. Constant and consistent verifications of Special Relativity have made it an accepted part of our model of reality, and part, we think, of the laws of the universe. Of course, Einstein went on to develop his ideas further and came to include acceleration and gravity in his perspective and so produced the General Theory of Relativity. Continuing and ever more accurate measurements are part of the life of this theory and its steady evolution. It is worth recalling, however, that Einstein’s work did not immediately win acceptance. It had to fight to earn its place. Einstein did not receive his Nobel Prize in Physics for relativity. It was still too controversial in 1921. He received the prize for his work on the photoelectric effect which won more ready acceptance although it, too, had to be verified by sets of experiments. Perhaps the great editor who published Einstein’s 1905 articles had the best statement. That was Max Planck who had himself achieved fame by his work originating modern quantum mechanics in 1900. We have used his statement at the head of this article. THE GALA THEORY The point of this discussion is to treat a theory that is controversial and even hotly disputed. How does an academy of science act in such a case? The example is James Lovelock’s approach to understanding life and evolution - the Gaia theory. Lovelock began speculating about the possibility of the Earth’s being a self-regulating system in 1965 when he was part of NASA’s planetary exploration team. He began to formulate a hypothesis, namely that living organisms regulate the atmosphere in their own interest.2 He discussed this hypothesis with the author, William Golding (Lord of the Flies), a discussion that resulted in Lovelock’s accepting Golding’s suggestion that he name his fledgling hypothesis “Gaia” - a result that has dogged the theory since its inception. Scientists find it very difficult to take seriously a theory named after a Greek Earth Goddess. Washington Academy of Sciences 65 Over time, the hypothesis lost its teleological aspect and the Gaia Theory as now set forth by Dr. Lovelock and his close collaborator. Dr. Lynn Margulis, proposes that the Earth is a self-regulating system made up of physical, chemical, biological, and human components.3 As with all but the most simple mechanical systems, sophisticated feedback loops are at work. Despite Lovelock’s insistence that he never meant to imply that the earth was a living, purposeful organism, that he used the term “living” only in a metaphorical sense, many fringe scientists adopted what is now known as the “strong” Gaia theory - i.e., the Earth is alive in the biological sense. This silliness has become the strawman that is often used to discredit the theory.4 The more mainstream Gaia has made a number of striking predictions. Among them are: that Mars would be lifeless (based on atmospheric evidence and confirmed by the Viking mission in 1977); that elements are transferred from the ocean to the land by biogenic gases (supported by the discovery of dimethyl sulphide, dimethyl selenide, and methyl iodide in 1973 and 2000); that climate is regulated through biologically enhanced rock weathering (strengthened by the discovery that microorganisms greatly increase the rate of rock weathering/') Did all that convince the scientific world that Gaia was a true representation of reality? Not entirely. Controversy still abounds, with many scientists pointing out that theories other than Gaia could have made the same predictions. In addition, Stephen Schneider observed that “Controversy occurred for at least three reasons: (1) there was outright hostility to the name ‘Gaia’...; (2) there was little or no shared understanding... of the ‘Gaia hypothesis;’ and (3) studying Gaia required strong multidisciplinary training and an interdisciplinary commitment that transcended traditional scientific approaches.”6 Despite the scientific uneasiness with Gaia, the first American Geophysical Union Chapman Conference on Gaia was held in 1988 to discuss the possibility of active climatic regulation systems and the relative importance of feedback processes between organic and inorganic compounds. This Conference was a major factor in stimulating interdisciplinary work as well as introducing Gaia to the mainstream of scientific debate. Many of the results of that debate were explicated in the second AGU conference held in 2000. The papers given there were collected in Scientists debate Gaia1 A partial listing of the contents of that Summer 2006 66 volume illustrates Gaia’s success in fostering the interdisciplinary research that was so formidably resisted less than two decades ago: Lynn Margulis, “Clarifying Gaia: regulation with or without natural selection”; Timothy M. Lenton, “Gaia is life in a wasteworld of byproducts”; Tyler Volk, “Models and geophysiological hypotheses”; J. Scott Turner, “Homeostatic Gaia: an ecologist's perspective on the possibility of regulation”; David Wilkinson, “Phosphorus, a servant faithful to Gaia? Biosphere remediation rather than regulation; Karl B. Foyllmi [el a/.] “Self-regulation of ocean composition by the biosphere”; Lee R. Kump, “A new biogeochemical earth system model for the Phanerozoic Eon”; Noam M. Bergman, Timothy M. Lenton and Andrew J. Watson - Gaia and glaciation: Lipalian (Vendian) environmental crisis; Mark A.S. McMenamin, “Does life drive disequilibrium in the biosphere?”; K. M. Nordstrom, V.K Gupta and T.N. Chase, “Food web complexity enhances ecological and climatic stability in a Gaian ecosystem model; and Keith Downing, “On causality and ice age deglaciations”. A description of the next Gaia Conference, to be held in October 2006, follows the endnotes of this paper. Whether one accepts Gaia or not, it is difficult not to admit that (1 ) without those conferences the interdisciplinary work necessary to the Earth sciences would not have occurred in this timeframe and (2) the on¬ going debate has fostered greatly increased understanding of how life and our planet work. For these reasons, the Washington Academy of Sciences is pleased to co-sponsor the Conference scheduled for October of this year (see http://www.gaiatheorv.orq). To repeat our earlier statement: Academies of science have a special role in the exposition and critical examination of new ideas. They provide a willing but intelligent audience where an innovator can make a presentation. In so doing, academies do not endorse such theories. They only allow them to be easily Washington Academy of Sciences 67 and widely exhibited. They can then begin their battle to achieve confirmation and acceptance or relegation to the annals of history. End Notes 1 A theory of biological evolution holding that species evolve by the inheritance of traits acquired or modified through the use or disuse of body parts. 2 Lovelock, James "The Living Earth", Nature . 426. pp. 769-770. Dec, 2003. 3 This statement is virtually identical with the first bullet point of the Amsterdam Declaration, issued by a joint meeting of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme, the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environental Change, the World Climate Research Programme, and the International Biodiversity Programme on July 13. 2001. It was that Declaration that helped to elevate Gaia from the status of hypothesis to that of a generally accepted theory (although not necessarily by the name of "Gaia”). 4James Lovelock. “Reflections on Gaia”, Scientists debate Gaia: the next century edited by Stephen H. Schneider. Cambridge. Mass. MIT Press. 2004. p. 2. 5 op cit. "The Living Earth.” 6 Preface to Scientists debate Gaia, op. cit. Scientists debate Gaia, op. cit. Summer 2006 68 CONFERENCE: The Gaia Theory - Model and Metaphor for the 21st Century AMONG THE SPONSORS ARE: Washington Academy of Sciences Northern Virginia Regional Park Authority George Mason University, ESRI (Environmental Systems Research Institute), Arlington Public Schools, Arlington County Department of Environmental Services, Virginia Tech Department of Science and Technology in Society, Northern Virginia Conservation Trust, Arlingtonians for a Clean Environment, Earth Force, My Organic Market (MOM) Grocers, Gaia International, Audubon Naturalist Society DATE: Saturday and Sunday, October 14-15 LOCATION: George Mason University Law School - Arlington, Virginia KEYNOTE SPEAKER: Dr. Lynn Margulis, Distinguished University Professor, Department of Geosciences, Univ. of Massachusetts - Amherst Other speakers are: Robert W. Corell, Lee Kump, Robert Artigiani, Eileen Crist, Lloyd Pinkham, Menas Kafatos, Tyler Volk, Donald Aitken, Dick Richardson, James Strick, Dan Zimble, Michael Zito, H. Bruce Rinker, Oran Sandel, Joel Salatin, Thomas I. Ellis, Scott Turner, J. Baird Callicott, David Schwartzman, Thomas Lovejoy Contact person: Martin Ogle: Chief Naturalist Northern Virginia Regional Park Authority Potomac Overlook Regional Park 2845 Marcey Road, Arlington, VA 22207 potomac@nvrpa.org. 703-528-5406 Washington Academy of Sciences 69 For registration and schedule see: http : //www . gai ath eory . org/ GOALS OF THE CONFERENCE • To promote awareness and understanding of the Gaia Theory among a diverse audience including scientists, educators, policy makers and the general public. • To explore the broad implications of the Gaia Theory and the connections it reveals between science, culture, economics, politics, education and other aspects of human life. • To explore & celebrate artistic and literary significance of the metaphor, Gaia. • To inspire the implementation of ongoing interdisciplinary thinking and actions. Summer 2006 DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America Paul Arveson American/Intemational Association of Dental Research J. Terrell Hoffeld American Association of Physics Teachers Frank R. Haig, S.J. American Ceramics Society VACANT American Fisheries Society Ramona Schreiber American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics David W. Brandt American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Michael Greeley American Meteorological Society Kenneth Carey American Nuclear Society Steven Arndt American Phytopathological Society Kenneth L. Deahl American Society for Cybernetics Stuart Umpleby American Society for Microbiology VACANT American Society of Civil Engineers Kimberly Hughes American Society of Mechanical Engineers Daniel J. Vavrick American Society of Plant Physiology Mark Holland Anthropological Society of Washington Marilyn London ASM International Toni Marechaux Association for Women in Science (AWIS) Emanuela Appetiti Association for Computing Machinery Lee Ohringer Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation F. Douglas Witherspoon Association of Information Technology Professionals Barbara Saffanek Biological Society of Washington VACANT Botanical Society of Washington Alain Touwaide Chemical Society of Washington James J. Zwolenik District of Columbia Institute of Chemists James J. Zwolenik District of Columbia Psychology Association David Williams Eastern Sociological Society Ronald W. Mandersheid Electrochemical Society Robert L. Ruedisueli Entomological Society of Washington F. Christian Thompson Geological Society of Washington Bob Schneider Historical Society of Washington, DC VACANT History of Medicine Society Alain Touwaide Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Douglas Griffith Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Sajjad Durrani Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Murty Polavarapu Institute of Food Technologies Isabel Walls Institute of Industrial Engineers Russell Wooten Instrument Society of America Hank Hegner Marine Technology Society Judith T. Krauthamer Mathematical Association of America Sharon K. Hauge Medical Society of the District of Columbia Duane Taylor National Capital Astronomers Jay H. Miller National Geographic Society VACANT Optical Society of America Jim Cole Pest Science Society of America VACANT Philosophical Society of Washington Vary T. Coates Society of American Foresters G. Foster Society of American Military Engineers VACANT Society of Experimental Biology and Medicine Darren Roesch Society of Manufacturing Engineers VACANT Soil and Water Conservation Society Bill Boyer Technology Transfer Society Clifford Lanham Washington Evolutionary Systems Society Jerry L.R. Chandler Washington History of Science Club Albert G. Gluckman Washington Chapter of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science Russell Wooten Washington Paint Technology Group VACANT Washington Society of Engineers Alvin Reiner Washington Statistical Society Michael P. Cohen World Future Society Russell Wooten Washington Academy of Sciences Room 637 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 Return Postage Guaranteed Medi U.S. i P J Mem field. VA Permit NO. 1 502 ERNST MAYR LIBRARY MUSEUM COMP ZOOLOGY HARVARD UNIVERSITY 26 OXFORD ST CAMBRIDGE. MA 02138-2902 _ <33'eA MCZ library DEC 1 8 2006 Volume 92 Number 3 HARVARD Fall 2006 UNIVERSITY Journal of the WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Contents The Editor Comments . . . . . . i Affiliated Institutions . . . . . . i Instructions to Authors . . . . . . ii Luciano Battocchio, Mission Support to the Moon Explorations ......................... 1 G. Giacomelli, D.E. Lynch, F. Piccolo, P.Sadler, C. Severini, From Alaska to Moon Base ... 11 P. Spillantini, Moon Base: Scientific Opportunities for Astroparticle Physics ............... 15 Stefano Lagrasia and Cosimo La Rocca, Positioning and Navigation on the Moon . . . 29 P. Magnani, B. Midollini and B. Papalia, Robotic Aid to Moon Base . . . 61 Roberto Varassi, M.D. and Roberto Revelli, M.D., Jane and John Born in Lunar Jamestown, 2020 . 69 Gabriele Peraldo Bertinet, Rodolfo Guzzi, Bruno Ratti, Anna Rebecchi, A Moon Base Knowledge and Imagination Portal . 75 News of Members and Affiliates . 87 Affiliated Societies Inside back cover ^asJjington Stabemp of Sciences Founded in 1898 Board of Managers Elected Officers The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences President William Boyer President Elect Alain Towaide Treasurer Harvey Freeman Secretary James Cole Vice President, Administration Rex Klopfenstein Vice President, Membership Thomas Meylan Vice President, Junior Academy Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliated Societies Mark Holland Members at Large Sethanne Howard Donna Dean Frank Haig, S.J. Jodi Wesemann Vary Coates The Journal is the official organ of the Academy. It publishes articles on science policy, the history of science, critical reviews, original science research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest to its members. It is published quarterly. The last issue of the year contains a directory of the current membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Members, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal free of charge. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis, payable in advance. Payment must be made in U.S. currency at the following rates. US and Canada . . $25.00 Other Countries . 30.00 Single Copies (when available) . 10.00 Claims for Missing Issues Claims must be received within 65 days of mailing. Claims will not be allowed if non-delivery was the result of failure to notify the Academy of a change Peg Kay of address. Past President: F. Douglas Witherspoon Notification of Change of Address AFFILIATED SOCIETY DELEGATES: Shown on back cover Address changes should be sent promptly to the Academy Office. Notification should contain both old and new addresses and zip codes. Editor of the Journal Vary T. Coates Associate Editors: Alain Touwaide Sethanne Howard Elizabeth Corona POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WAS, Rm.631, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC. 20005 Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Academy Office Washington Academy of Sciences Room 63 1 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202/326-8975 email: was@washacadsci.org Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences 202/326-8975 website: www.washacadsci.org MCZ LIBRARY I THE EDITOR COMMENTS: DEC 1 8 2006 HARVARD UNIVERSITY THE ACADEMY’S ANNUAL AWARD for Excellence in Physical Sciences (May 2006) went to John C. Mather of the Goddard Space Flight Center; he had also been a featured speaker at our CapSci 06 conference in March. On October 3 the Nobel Prize Committee confirmed our prescience, naming John Mather as co-winner of the 2006 prize in Physics (along with George F. Smoot of the University of California) for identifying radiation from the Big Bang. Congratulations to Dr. Mather, and also to the Academy’s Awards Committee for their astute recognition of outstanding work. A PROPOSAL TO BUILD a condominium of observatories on the Moon, presented at the Academy’s Capital Science 2004 conference led to a series of papers and conferences on this exciting topic, including a MoonBase Conference sponsored by the Academy in Washington in March 2005; a second in Venice, Italy, in May, 2005, co-sponsored by the Academy, the Italian National Academy of Astrophysics, and High Frontier, Inc.; and a third, with the same co-sponsors, in Washington in October 2005. Several papers by American and British participants in those conferences were subsequently published in the Journal. In this issue we are pleased to present a series of papers by Italian participants in the conferences, and as always we invite comments by readers. AFFILIATED INSTITUTIONS The National Institute for Standards and Technology Meadowlark Botanical Gardens The John W. Kluge Center of the Library of Congress Potomac Overlook Regional Park Fall 2006 II INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS 1 . Manuscripts should be in Word or WordPerfect, and not pdf. 2. They should be 5,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by the Editor).If there are 7 or more graphics, the number of words should be reduced. 3. Graphics (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in black and white only, and should be easily resizable by the editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the graphics. 4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field represented by the manuscript. They must of course be accurate, complete, and consistent in format throughout the paper. 5. Manuscripts should be sent by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to Joumal@washacadsci.oro: or directly to the editor, vcoates@mac.com. Hard copy can not be accepted. 6. Be sure to include both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author (or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if any. 1 MISSION SUPPORT TO THE MOON EXPLORATIONS Luciano Battocchio Abstract A mission to the Moon will require extensive technical and logistical support from Earth. Technical support will differ from current forms since it must support real time decisions made on the Moon. Logistic activities must from the start be based on Life Cycle Cost Analyses in order to define appropriate maintenance and spares policies. Introduction A mission to the Moon requires extensive support from Ground Centers. The astronauts on the Moon will have to face an unknown environment and will depend (at least for the first missions) on the resources that Mother Earth will provide them. These resources will cover the elements absolutely necessary for survival, but also those items that will guarantee proper functioning of the equipment necessary to survive and to perform mission activities, in primis. For Moon exploration, in other words. Ground Base has to provide consumables, like air, water and food, and hardware, like spare parts. These elements will not cover all the support that the Moon explorers need. Additional support that is also extremely important is based on information, which could be technical or geographical, including information on the functioning of the equipment or related to the Moon’s surface. In other words, the support provided by the Ground Base will include information as well as hardware or consumables, and the support will be, in general, of two kinds: • Technical support, and • Logistic support. Fall 2006 2 Technical Support Technical Support to a Manned Space Mission Technical support to a manned space mission is based on provision to Mission Control of technical information, including a set of data related to the functioning of the various systems, subsystems and equipment, not only during their operations, but also operational procedures, data resulting from trend analyses, etc. Technical support could be divided into three phases based on mission timing: • Pre-mission analyses; • Technical support during the mission; • Post-mission technical support. Pre-mission analyses: During the definition of a mission, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of the various systems, subsystems and equipment, given the mission constraints, in order to verify their capability to support applicable mission steps. In order to perform this evaluation, it is necessary to conduct analyses, simulations and tests based on the available models of the systems, subsystems and equipment. It is mandatory that these models be updated based on the evolution of the system, subsystems and equipment configuration. Some of the most important activities identified are: • Inputs, review and assessment of the mission plan, mission rules and mission procedures; • Design, development and manufacturing of the modifications related to the specific mission; • Technical support to the mission manifest and integration cycle; • Technical support to the resolution of flight manifest issues; • Participation in the mission integration process; • Mission-specific software build-up and configuration; Washington Academy of Sciences 3 • Dedicated mission analyses and tests (structural, thermal, environmental, electrical, EMC); • Support to system level mission specific verification; • Support to end-to-end tests and integrated mission simulations. Technical support during the mission: Ground support to Mission Control is also necessary during the performance of mission activities, in order to assess the correct performance of the systems, subsystems and equipment, and in order to support re-planning and anomalies resolution. With respect to the pre-mission technical support, it has to be noted that the most important part of the technical support is not pre-planned and has to be given in near real time, being correlated with the above mentioned anomalies resolution. Also in this case it is possible to identify the most important activities, which are: • Systems, subsystems and equipment monitoring and status; • Assessment; • Re-planning support and flight products (flight notes) assessment; • Real time manifest change evaluation; • Support anomaly resolution; • Off line support to real time team for specific technical support, flight products preparation (i.e. S/W PPL) and/or anomaly resolution. Post- mission technical support: The technical support given after the completion of a mission is typically related to the analysis of the performances, as well as the behavior of the operative parameters, of the systems, subsystems and equipment during the various mission phases. In particular, the real operative parameters will be analyzed in front of the parameters obtained with the analytical prediction, in order to understand if the behavior of the systems, subsystems and equipment was as predicted. From the results of this first level analysis, trend analyses are performed, in order to analytically define the behavior of the systems, subsystems and equipment for the future operative developments and missions. Fall 2006 4 Based on the results of the analyses, several actions could derive. Some of the most important derived activities are: • Updating of planning, including logistic planning and models; • Corrective actions, such as removal and replacement of units/equipment; • Manufacturing of new spare parts based on new logistic needs; • Definition of changes in the Flight Unit configuration; • Design and development of new units; • Updating of the configuration of the various hardware models, simulate etc. Technical Support to Moon Missions In order to properly understand the main differences between technical support to a “standard” manned space mission and the Moon base, it has to be noted that the main differe e is related to the Mission Control models. In a “standard” manned space Mission, the control is al ken by Earth and the decisions that could be taken by the crew are very limited. On the Moon, however, the explorers must have an increasing responsibility for the control of their activities, since it is absolutely clear that they have to face unknown situations and therefore pre-planning could be somehow useless. It is clear that the amount of responsibility delegated to the explorers will increase over time: the crew of the first missions will have a limited autonomy, while the crew of the following missions will have more and more autonomy, until the entire Mission Control responsibility is left to the Moon explorers. With this scenario of increasing autonomy, and of increasing responsibility of the Moon explorers, it is clear that the role o hmcal support will change, in particular for those aspects related u. support during the mission. Also with respect to the “mission” concept, Moon missions have a different approach. In “standard” manned space missions the mission covers the entire time from lift-off to return to ground. In this case, it could be assumed that a “mission” covers al ^ a specific set of activities to Washington Academy of bo dices 5 be performed externally to the Moon Base. In other words, a long “mission” (long term permanence on the Moon) will be divided into different short “missions,” based on a set of activities performed on the Moon, e g. on a daily basis. Given these conditions, it is clear that the most important modifications to technical support will be in the area of “technical support during the mission.” As a matter of fact, the technical support team must give real time support to the Moon explorers, in order to immediately support decisions that have to be taken during their activities. Progressive transfer of the Mission Control would therefore have heavy impacts on the Moon Base architecture, in particular in three important areas: • Communications Earth-to-Moon. Real time support from the Earth will result in heavy requirements to the Earth-to-Moon communications system. • Communications Moon-to-Moon: Progressive transfer of Mission Control to the Moon Base will require a Moon-to-Moon communications system. • Data Base on the Moon : Progressive transfer of Mission Control to the Moon Base will require that the Mission Control data base, including relevant technical information, be progressively transferred to the Moon Logistic Support to a Manned Space Program Modem approaches to system/mission support are based on Logistic Support Analysis (LSA) and Integrated Logistic Support (ILS) models, developed by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD); such models provide a powerful approach to logistic support definition, planning, management, implementation and acquisition by the user. Although they normally apply to a Defense context, such models are successfully adopted by space programs, and in particular manned space programs, to effectively manage applicable logistic support requirements and implementation. In Europe, the European Cooperation for Space Standardization (ECSS) space standards explicitly refer to USA DOD MIL-STD-1388-1 A (LSA) and MIL-STD-1388-2B (LSA Record). The ECSS also endorse and tailor fundamental methodologies issued by DOD to standardize specific Fall 2006 6 logistic disciplines which are closely related to LSA and ILS activities, namely: • RAMT (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Testability); • FMECA (Failure Modes Effect Criticality Analysis); • Safety and Hazard Analysis; • Configuration Management; • PHST (Package, Handling, Storage and Transportation). Further studies and techniques must be integrated with the above mentioned disciplines, namely: • Human Factor Analysis, and • Support Facilities Analysis. Basic guide-lines to effectively manage LSA/ILS processes are: • They must be initiated in the early phase of the mission concept definition, in order to influence design concepts when they are not yet consolidated. • They must be integrated within the system design process to fully achieve mission objectives. • They must take into account user needs, operating environment, constraints, capabilities and resources; • They must cover the complete system life cycle, up to the disposal phase. A key point for logistic support success is logistic management, which must be established in the early phase of Mission design It must be based on a continuous data acquisition process and correlated analysis phases, since LSA/ILS processes efficiency closely depends on the capability to follow system requirements evolution and timely track system design upgrades. Modifications Required by Moon Missions The Moon Base program implies a complexity that mankind never faced during past space missions. This complexity is obviously reflected Washington Academy of Sciences mi 7 in several issues related to logistics, and in particular some requirements increase their importance, such as: • The design must comply with serious safety impacts and system reliability requirements; • A reliable rescue strategy must be defined to react in a timely way to unpredictable emergency conditions, notwithstanding the Moon Base’s distance from the Earth; • An extensive approach is required to properly select, prepare, manage, transport, deploy, start-up, and maintain the Moon Base in working order, for a long period of time. Unfortunately, the modification or increasing importance of some requirements cannot cover the substantial modification necessary to implement efficient logistic support in the Moon Missions environment. The Moon Base program then not only requires a sophisticated system design, but a specific additional effort must be spent for logistic engineering and logistic support definition, development and management. Complex analyses are required to identify mission support objectives and priorities, to coherently define the Moon Base expected independence (personnel skill, workload, tools and spares) and external support strategies. An assessment process is required to optimize support objectives, dependability requirements and mission targets according to economical and technical constraints. The Logistic Support Scenario for Moon Missions The logistic scenario associated with a Moon Mission is very similar to one associated with a ship that is on a mission far away from the coasts. In both the cases, it will be strictly necessary to trust in proper resources, since it will be very difficult to get support from the base. This means that the system design must implement requirements, in terms of safety, reliability, etc., that will guarantee to the system a very high probability of correct functioning. Extremely important is the maintenance policy, since it is strictly associated with the keeping of high reliability levels and with the operational readiness of the systems. Fall 2006 8 With respect to the three traditional maintenance levels (organizational, intermediate and depot), some special considerations are necessary. As a first approach, in ulne,rflyiIeV) 100 1000 10000 Fig. 3 - Antiproton rates for different possible trends of the antiproton proton ratio. On the Moon very rigid particles can be bent by a relatively modest magnetic field extended over large volumes, which is not allowed by present launch capabilities in LEO. Such a magnet could be inserted in a larger detection system devoted to the detection of the tiny flux of ultra high energy CR. (Fig. 4) 5-MOm 5-MOm Direction and ionization measurements - 1 Spectrometers identification _ 1 Elc ictromagnetic calorimeter Hadronic c calorimeter Fig. 4 - Insertion of a specialized device in the large HECR detection system However it must be also noted that the location of a large capture area device on the Moon capable of a very good angular resolution and good calorimetric measurement of the released energy could use the Earth magnetic field as a magnetic spectrometer (see Fig.5). Washington Academy of Sciences , 23 Fig. 5 - Deflection of a PCR passing at different distances from the Earth magnetic axis In the hypothesis of the existence of large scale antimatter domains in the Universe (Symmetric Universe), an angular resolution better than 1 mrad allows a significant rate for antiproton up to about 10 TeV (Fig. 6). Fig. 6 - Antiproton rate for a Matter-Antimatter Symmetric Universe in a device that uses the Earth magnetic field in the spectrometer Extreme energy CR At energies of the primary CR exceeding 1017 - 1018 eV the fluoresce emission of the shower in the terrestrial atmosphere becomes intense enough to be detectable by suitable devices. This fact allows us not only to measure the total energy released by the CR in the shower but also to follow its longitudinal development, giving information on the nature of the primary CR, and allowing us to distinguish the different CR Fall 2006 24 components. At high enough energies, exciding a few EeV, the fluorescence light emission is intense enough to be observed and measured at a large distance. A huge air volume can be monitored by a few devices, especially if they can be operated from far away on an Earth satellite. However the limitations in mass and dimensions of the transport systems into orbit will not allow us in the foreseeable future to go very far in energy, and most of the region beyond the GZK will be out of reach. The observation of the fluorescence light from a very high altitude satellite, as the Moon is, could increase by two orders of magnitude the observable atmospheric volume, but, due to the three orders of magnitude of the distance from the terrestrial surface, it requires a huge diameter of the optical system to maintain a not too high energy threshold for the detection (see Fig. 7). Fig. 7 - Rate of PCR for a device installed on the Moon surface and based on the observation of the florescence light emitted in the terrestrial atmosphere. The evaluation is based on the -2.6 value of the index of the differential energy spectrum and does not take into consideration the GZK effect. The energy threshold is indicated for several diameter* of the area of the optical system. The rates for the EUSO and OWL projects are also reported for comparison The observation of Extreme Energy Neutrinos Optical systems with the diameters indicated in the Fig. 7 likely are not a goal for the first generation of lunar experiments, and in any case diameters of the optical area exceeding 100 m cannot presently be easily conceived. However diameters in this range could be taken into consideration if in the meantime the need arises for an ‘Extreme Energy Washington Academy of Sciences 25 Neutrino Observatory’; neutrinos become the fundamental actor in the astronomy of the extreme space and time Universe and of the extreme energy astrophysics when they are by-products of the decay of the super¬ heavy elementary particles hypothesized in the Grand Unification Theories of the Elementary Particle Physics. It must be observed that, besides the Tess improbable’ cosmogenic neutrinos that become relevant beyond 1019 eV and could still be abundant beyond 1021 eV (and should be already measured at the time when a Moon based Neutrino Observatory could be planned), several models foresee significant neutrino fluxes at 1022 eV and beyond. The results from the neutrino experiments performed in the meantime will indicate their importance and will drive the parameters of the possible Moon based Neutrino Observatory. An interesting perspective for the observation of extreme energy neutrinos is that proposed by the Lebedev Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (LORD and LORD 10 projects). It is based on the detection by a lunar satellite of the ‘Cherenkov light’ emitted (in radio frequencies) by the shower produced by the neutrino on the limb of the Moon. The monitored target volume increases with energy and becomes competitive for energies beyond 102° eV (Fig. 8). Such a device, even if not installed on the Moon surface, could usefully profit from the facilities of a future Moon Base, and be considered a Moon based experiment. Fall 2006 Fig. 8 - Ob sellable target volume for different experiment - LORD and LORD 100 projects are based on the detection on board of a Moon satellite of the radio signal emitted (as Cherenkov light) by the Ultra HE show er produced by PCR on the limb o f the Moon. Conclusions As a conclusion let me present the scheme reported in Fig. 9, where the achievement that could be obtained by Moon based CR experiments are schematically summarized. High Z HNeXpiorer (HNX) jexp ENTICE + ECCO] r stand by pcssoe orvy on the Moon surface Isotopes (E>GeV/YV) on Earth oft* =60 are accessible txi no pians exist iig tt solcoes from BESS PAMELA AMS m next years nqri rale assured on the Moon up io very heft E Rare components art#4/N upto<10*(AMS) artp up to a >200 GeV (PA^LA ed AMS) electrons up to >3 TeV (PAMELA A MS CALET) 0 TeV reqen or, reach or *ne Moor; suface Elemental composition up to 100TeVbyba#oomng (gomgon) up to 1 PeV n ortxt (several projects and concepts ) up to 1 CO PeV I weft behind the knee; or the Moor Ultra High Energies up to fe* * IGGEeV on Earth surface (gotig on) up to 1000 EeV tom ortxt (but EUSO in stand by} x :c a fe* ' C ZeV fror tne Mocr sjtqcs a JHE Neutrino Observatory 1 C,,g s feasbte Fig. 9 - Summary' of possible achievement by future Moon based experiments. It must be emphasized that there are some important measurements that can be conducted on the Moon surface Each of these measurements could take advantage from, and be the target of. a specific project for a dedicated Moon-based experimental facility However, the combination of all of them in a single base represents the very challenging and really advanced program, because of the synergy of different detection systems and measurements. References 1 Heiss K.P.. ^Columbia: A Permanent Lunar Base". Final report of High Frontier Inc. to NASA Office of Space Flight. December 17. 2003 2 "A Journey to Inspire. Innovate, and Discover", report of the President's Commission on Implementation of US Space Exploration Policy. June 2004 Washington Academy of Sciences 27 3 Gilmozzi R.. “Moon Base: Scientific Opportunities (in Astronomy)”. International Workshop Moon Base. Venezia. May 27. 2005 4 Pace E. and Spillantini P.. “Lunar Observatory for Cosmic Ray Physics”, in response to the ESA call for ideas ‘Cosmic Vision 2015-2025'. May 30. 2004. 5 Linslev J.. “Cosmic Ray Detectors on the Moon". Workshop of the American Astronomical Society and of NASA on Future Astronomical Observatories ob the Moon’, Houstoa Texas. January 10. 1986. proceedings NASA Conference Publication 2489. 1988. pag.55. 6 Heiss K.P.. Ignatiev A. and Van Susante P.. “IRSU-Based Development of a Lunar Water Astroparticle Observ atory”, report prepared for the Planetary and Terrestrial Mining Sciences Symposium. NORCAT. Sudbury. ON. 2006. 7 The Jamestown Group LLC, “Components of an Economical Development Scenario for the Moon”, report in press. Fall 2006 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 29 POSITIONING AND NAVIGATION ON THE MOON Stefano Lagrasta1 Telespazio S.p.A. Cosimo La Rocca Galileo Industries Italia S.p.A.; ABSTRACT The following article provides a “tutorial" overview of the navigation problem, with details on the related math modelling and viable solutions, depending upon the available infrastructure, translating the experience gained on Earth to the Moon environment. To this purpose, localization with Pseudolites and Satellite Constellations is considered, with emphasis on different equipment and related application notes, from the point of view of system design. Alternatives are analyzed for 2D and 3D determination of coordinates. A finalization of the study should be part of a 4'phase A” activity specifically targeted to the Moon localization problem. Introduction After over 30 years of successful experience with GPS (Global Positioning System) and GLONASS (GLObal NAvigation Satellite System), satellite radio-assisted navigation is now at the beginning of a new era. There is a push originating with the demand of increased accuracy and availability, not simply and not only targeted to military purposes, but involving new, growing communities - those of civilian users. The SOL (Safety of Life) applications, such as air services to assist aircraft approach and landing, needed for precision and a certified reliability require an implementation through the delivery of appropriate, real-time Integrity information. The first response to these issues was the introduction of Satellite Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS), such as the American WAAS (Wide Area Augmentation System) and European EGNOS (European Geostationary Navigation Overlay System). At the same time, “Selective Availability” intentional degradation was suppressed, and a modernization program was scheduled for the Fall 2006 30 existing systems. Twelve new satellites of the GPS HR block will provide the new civilian band “L2C” and new “M code” military signals. A third GPS civilian signal (L5) will be made available after the launch of the first 6 IIF block satellites. GLONASS is also undergoing a complete renovation that is expected to achieve a full operational capability - based upon 24 space vehicles - by 2009. Europe is developing the Galileo system, designed to be fully compatible and interoperable with existing GPS and GLONASS, although self-standing. From the beginning Galileo will modulate 10 circular polarized navigation signals, using spread-spectrum CDMA (Code Divisional Multiple Access) technique for multiplation, on three different carriers and bands: LI, E5, and E6. It plans to achieve excellence in user positioning by allowing multi -frequency terminals to apply autonomous on-the-fly ambiguity resolution for “real time kinematics” based on carrier phase measurements. At the same time, Galileo will broadcast its own Integrity data, without the need of any complementary system. In this scenario, new applications and technology enablers come from the vision of engineers and scientists, able to implement their own solutions. In the past, “GPS like” signal generators were used only on the ground within laboratories to develop and test navigation receivers. However, since early ‘80, it was understood that new ideas about their use had brought benefit. Engineers started to “fix” signal generators outdoors, and experiment with the so called pseudo-satellites: emitters similar to the satellite navigation payload, capable of allowing autonomous positioning or incrementing availability, by complementing with “ground resources” the original signals from constellations. The time for exploiting the so called “pseudolites” in all their potential has just started notwithstanding the difficulties related to their use (< e.g the “near - far” problem). All of this experience, as well as technological and industrial capability, seem mature enough to be exported, in order to provide a viable solution to the positioning problem on planets. The difference, with respect to the application on Earth, is the lack of pre-existing infrastructures. We cannot forget that global positioning is based upon the concept of a worldwide applicable reference system and time scale; all of this must be properly established in advance. Washington Academy of Sciences 31 Fortuitously, a satellite based navigation system is a twofold “toolset,” on one side, it allows one to determine the user coordinates and, on the otlher side, it is a precise “measurement instrument” to support the maintenance of time and global frame references. Code and Carrier Range Models For a Navigation Constellation Around a Planet Let us denote with 1 a time instant on a uniform, reference time scale. We need a reference time to mark the occurring events; as a matter of fact, all the equipment involved in the “navigation system” is made up of several clocks, each generating its own time measurement, T, each different with respect to the others. The raw read-outs from a navigation receiver unit consist mainly of the so called code range (p ) and carrier range ( ) observables. As we shall see, elapsed time measurements are converted into distance, or “ranging” information. sv The ET (end terminal) and SV (space vehicle) clock scales T£r T aim at reproducing the previously mentioned absolute time reference t\ however, they depend upon accuracy of local (receiver and navigation payload) clock oscillators, and relativistic effects. A time difference between instants in the two scales 7™ T is at ET the basis of the first “navigation observable” to be considered: the raw code-range, p . p is a length measurement, achieved after correlating the “local replica” of a PRN (Pseudo Random Noise) code with the signal from a Space Vehicle (SV) or Pseudolite (PL) and multiplying the relative time shift, needed to align the codes, by the speed of light, c. p can be modeled as follows: P(7r) = c-(7r - 7^) + (high) noise + multipath (1) where TR is the End Terminal (ET) receiver clock time measurement when p is “sampled”; when ET time reads TR. t the reference time is tR. Fall 2006 32 Tr=TM- (2) T is the SV clock time measurement at the emission of the RF wavefront that reaches the ET at tR, when the navigation payload clock reads the absolute time is E SV T =T (tE). (3) The difference: r= *R ~ *E (4) is the effective “light travel time” of the navigation signal. One has: T *E ^REL-SV + ^ Tr - *R + A* REL-ET + €ET (5) (6) where e£T and £ 1 are the “time errors” of the ET and SV clocks, while A t rel-et anc^ A ^rel-si' are r^tivistic terms, due to the fact that both satellite and receiver are moving and “embedded “in a gravitation field. The signal propagation time depends upon the real distance p between SV and ET, as well as on delays due to both the atmosphere, if existing, and the gravity gradient. In the language of satellite navigation, the variable refractive index caused by the presence of free electrons represents the “ionospheric” delay (A tJONO); the excess path caused by a non-ideal refractivity in the neutral atmosphere is the “tropospheric” effect (with delay AtTROPO)- The gravity gradient implies a new relativistic effect with associated lag denoted as A t One can write T ~ ((r “ *£■) ~ P I c +A tREi + A tJONO+ At TROPO (7) with p = || AA • rsl (tR - T) - rEJtR) || (8) so that T appears implicitly defined, being in both terms of the previous equation. Vectors r1^, r_Er denote the respective positions of SV and ET antennae in the established, planet centered and fixed (non-inertial) reference coordinate system. Operator AA is an “attitude” matrix, accounting for planet motion over the time interval r. In the case of the Earth and WGS 84 or GTRF Washington Academy of Sciences 33 Earth Centered and Fixed (ECF) Cartesian frame, AA results, with good approximation, to be a “pure” rotation about z-axis, of the angle accumulated by the Earth rotation in the time interval r: AA = cos(x • co0 ) -sin(x • cd0) 0 sin(x- co0) cos(t • 0)0 ) 0 0 0 1 (9) It is worthwhile to establish a planet centered and fixed global reference frame with z-axis close to the effective rotation axis of the celestial body, so that, in the absence of significant precession and nutation motions over the interval, r, equation (9) is still valid. In the case of Earth, one has: C0o> 0, (Oo = 7.29212 x 10 ~ rad/s while in the case of the Moon (Ocj> 0, (Oo= 2.66167 x 10”6 rad/s. The Moon rotates much slower, about 27 times slower than Earth does. Substituting the previous equations into (1), the following final expression is found: p(TR) = p +c-(£et- /') +... (10) + C ' ( ^REL-SV + ^ REL-ET ^ REL + ^ IONO + ^TROPc) +' + noise + multipath + eEm The carrier-phase observable, (p, is the second fundamental raw output measurement from a navigation receiver. Given in units of cycles, it can be converted from the very basic read-out into units of length, multiplying it by the wavelength. A; it can be demonstrated that the resulting model for “carrier range” 5> is very similar to the one of code range , being modeled as follows: 0(7^) =/t- $ =p +c-(eET- (11) + C ’ ( ^ REL-SV + ^ REL-ET + ^ REL ~ ^ IONO + ^TROPc) + ^ ' N +. . . + (negligible) noise + (low) multipath + e£pH where N - the so called “initial ambiguity” - is an integer term, with relative sign, not a priori known, that remains constant, until carrier tracking is lost. N equals the integer number of wavelengths along the Fall 2006 34 path between signal generator and user receiver, counted at the time of signal phase lock; such an ambiguity parameter remains constant, until any fail of phase tracking by the receiver. Carrier range measurements obtained from navigation signals modulating different carrier frequencies do have different ambiguity terms. When changing the satellite, a distinct ambiguity value is to be accounted for. Note that the ionospheric effect appears in the expression of with a negative sign. Both in (1) and (11), the term £EPIP known as “ephemeris error”, is not caused by a physical source. It has to be accounted for, whenever an a priori model for i_ (t) is used, in order to solve for user position vector, r_ET In other words, eEpH comes out due to the poor accuracy in the knowledge of the emitter location. This is true, unless the problem under consideration is the dual one, i.e ., if r£T is well known, and the aim is to nrr solve for r , as it happens in the constellation Orbit Determination. Solution of Navigation Equations We do not put down here all the “processing details” necessary to solve for user position; however, some basic equations are given, which allow one to understand the fundamental issues and problems The standard solution provided by a navigation receiver uses code range raw observables. The approach consists of an iterative process, assuming that a first “guess”, is available for ET coordinates, as well an initial value £** for the ET clock error and for signal travel time, r*. Based on such initial rough estimates, and assuming one knows an evaluation can be obtained for “signal emission” time instant as well as a better estimate for r we get tE tR ~ T = Tr - £* - r* (12) r<- p/C - e. + isv(tE). (13) Here £SI is an estimate of the SV clock error, built up by using the “clock correction” engineering information transmitted by navigation systems within the so called “navigation message”. Washington Academy of Sciences 35 Given t the position of navigation satellite is achieved through the « precision ephemeris » of the navigation message. Mainly from r* and rSl , plus additional elements of the navigation message ( e.g the « ionospheric correction parameters ») and meteorological data (pressure, humidity, temperature), the following overall set of estimates can be achieved: £ 1 ^ REL-SV* ^ REV ^ IONCT ^ TROPO- The aim is to produce a “corrected” code range pc , i.e.. Pc - P + £ “ C ' ( ^ REL-SV + ^ R£L + ^ IONO+ ^ TROPc) ’ Assimilating At ET within the clock error e one has PC = P +*'eET +€ where e « conglobates » noise, multipath, as well as the uncompensated terms, to be intended as all undesired signal components that do not cancel out, after application of the feed-forward compensation formula ( 1 5). Equation (16) is linear in the unknown receiver clock offset e£V whilst it is non-linear with respect to ET coordinates, r£T . (14) (15) (16) A linearization about point r * provides 1 T A p = p* - p Ar p* “* (17) where rET = L, + Ar (18) £>, = AA ■ if1 - rt (19) P. =11 A II = II AA -r, ||. (20) Substituting (17) into (16) yields: Pc -A= -T-p/-Ar +c-eET+e (21) P* where £>* is a 1 x 3 row vector. Fall 2006 36 From ni distinct and “corrected” code range measurements { p J, pc? p"1 }, all affected by the same clock offset e£r one can build up a linear system = M Ar C ■ £et + 8 M = -4 4 , and that 4x4 matrix (M • M) is nonsingular. After applying (23), letting £* £ ET (24) t* = L*+ Ar (25) allows us to start with a new iteration of the algorithm, performing all computation steps indicated by (12), (13), (15), (19), (20), and finally (23). Iterations are stopped when || Ar || comes out to be of negligible dimension. Error Budget and System Features Whatever the user positioning algorithm is that estimates r£r e£T from the set of “corrected” code range measurements {p^ , pc2 p^11 }, the linear relationship (23) is always the proper one to describe how the Washington Academy of Sciences 37 uncompensated error £ that still affects observables positioning and timing error converts into ' Sr ‘ c • ST = (Mt • M)"1 -Mt -e (26) where positioning error dr — v — f - -ET -ET (27) timing error a? II 1 m> Let us assume that an ellipsoid is defined to approximate the surface profile of the planet. Several applications require the error Sr to be converted into “local coordinates”, i.e., projected in a frame {xL,yL, zl) co-located with the end terminal, the axes {xl, yi] defining a plane tangent to the ellipsoid at the user position, whilst zl is in the zenith direction. If the orientation matrix L converts from planet centered to local coordinates, one has " §Il " Ol Sr c ST _0T 1 c-ST (28) L = - sin(?t) - sin((|)) • cos(^) cos((|)) • cos(^) cos(A,) 0 - sin((j)) • sin(A,) cos(<})) cos(<|)) • sin(^) sin((j)) (29) On Earth, {A, (f)} are the well known geodetic longitude and latitude of the user. Let us assume now that residual measurement error e is purely stochastic and characterized by the covariance: P = E{e • £} = ap2 • I , that means all error components affecting code range measurements are intended to have the same variance, ap2. If this is the case, the following is achieved C2(xl) C2(xl) o2(xl) o2(T) (30) Fall 2006 38 LT 0 0T 1 and the “Dilution of Precision” (DOP) parameters defined as: GDOP cp2 = (Trace of W ) • gp2 = a\xL) + Pi2 _ 1 1 f Ap,2 _Ap2_ _Ap2 _ 1 1 c • Ae2-1 c- Ae2-1 ” 2 -1 1 (61) Fall 2006 50 After detection of A£, given that r7, r are known, the linearized model for calculating ET coordinates is: Ar = (Mt • M)"1 -Mt • ^Pet “P* + P* + c- Ae2-1 Ap£f* - p* + p* + c • Ae4-3 ^Pet5 - p* + p* + c • Ae6-' APet7 - p* + p l + c • Ae8-7 (62) where “coupled” pairs of DL are considered to be in each other’s “line of sight”, and no “master station” (MS) is needed; note that a MS would impose the (severe) requirement of receiving signals from all emitters simultaneously. Using the DL architecture, techniques have been developed as in [11 PI [3], so that the array of emitters is capable of “self-surveying” the relative locations, creating a Self-Calibrating Pseudolite Array (SCPA). The approach can be extended to the carrier range measurements to achieve centimeter accuracy [4], Sensitivity of DOP Figures to Geometry When using pseudolites on the surface of a planet, DOP figures that approach the classical solution of user 3D coordinates show dramatic singularities. As an example, assume that four PL are placed at the corners of a box, centered at Apollo 11 Mission landing base: selenodetic longitude: Ao= 23.5° East, latitude: 0= 0.7° North. Let the box sides span ±0.16° in latitude and longitude, with a fifth PL placed exactly at the center of the area. All PL are assumed to be placed at 50 m of altitude above the surface of the Moon, to compensate for its curvature and to grant optical visibility. The PDOP figure for such a configuration is shown below, where black diamonds denote the antennae of signal generators: -L Washington Academy of Sciences 51 3D Position Dilution of Precision (PDOP) factor 300 250 200 100 50 0 23.1 Ion [deg] la* 1*41 Values are too high and cannot be accepted. The fact is that there is a difficulty in evaluating the vertical component of the ET position. To overcome it, one may define a “local horizon fixed” coordinate system, for instance related to the “central” PL , using matrix L defined by (29) to convert vectors {r\ j = 1 , ..., 5}, denoting PL coordinates, from planet-centered axes to the local frame {*1, yu zl}- Then, the ET position can be solved neglecting the zL coordinate (approximately the altitude, in a little area), thus obtaining a 2D solution of the navigation problem. In this case, PDOP values are given below. Within the area having PL at corners, the PDOP value is of the order of 0.95, which is perfect. An equivalent performance is obtained as well by eliminating the 5th PL emitter at the origin Ao, (/>o of local coordinates. Fall 2006 52 2D Position Dilution of Precision (PDOP) factor lat [deg] 1.1-i 1.0- 0.9- 0.8- 0.7- 0.6- 0.5- 0.4- 0.3- 23.1 — I — 23.2 23.8 23.9 2D Position Dilution of Precision (PDOP) factor — i - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - r~ 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 Global Moon Positioning With Constellations Ion [deg] Washington Academy of Sciences 53 The basic equation set (22), with solution (23), is the standard receiver approach to determine ET coordinates in geocentric as well as selenocentric fixed coordinates. The navigation equations (22), (23) imply the need to determine four scalar magnitudes (the three components of position adjustment, A r, and the ET clock offset eET). A necessary condition is to have ni > 4 navigation space vehicles in view. To this purpose, several studies analyze the (minimum) number of visible satellites at the nodes of a grid, over the surface region of the Moon that is meant to be covered by a “positioning service”. However, this is not sufficient; in fact, the solution of (23) must be T well posed and the inversion of the 4x4 matrix (M • M) far from singularities. In other words, the geometric configuration of satellites, as seen from the user receiver, has to be favorable, with DOP figures illustrated in the beginning characterized by promising values. If four satellites are in view, but (for instance) all pertaining to the same orbit plane, the ET will not be able to solve for its position. DOP values will jump to very high values in the proximity of singularity conditions. One should also take into account a “masking angle” on elevation of visible satellites. On Earth, navigation space vehicles that are still in view, but below a minimum elevation of 5° with respect to the ET local horizon, are commonly excluded from positioning computations, due to the large portion of atmosphere that is passed through by signals. The Moon does not exhibit such a huge variation of the refraction index; however, a not-null masking angle is to be considered when performing “volume” simulation of performances, to account for natural obstacles to the propagation of rays. If a “trial” constellation appears sensitive to small masking angles (say 2°), then its design should be re-examined. In order to “save” the number of satellites needed for positioning, or to overcome temporary singularities for the 3D position determination, one may assume a simplification and treat a 2D problem instead. Fall 2006 54 The problem of imposing long-term orbits is an open issue as well, due to the intrinsic instability of Moon orbit profiles, which will not be treated here in detail. 2D Positioning with Navigation Constellations This can be accomplished by projecting the unknown correction Arto local horizon coordinates, {xL,yL, -l}, then neglecting the “delta” along zi and assuming one estimates only its components about Let us consider again the basic equation set (22), and split matrix M according to the 3 x 1 structure of Ar and of the scalar (c- £ET), so that = H Ar + 1 • (c • ) + e, H = i (P*) p* — L.(p”)T m — * P * Now, using the transpose of matrix L defined by (29) Axi "1 0" "0" T T L -ArL = L ■ <1 T = L 0 1 Axl' Ay t + 0 _Azl _ 0 0 ► L _ 1 (63) (64) Azl = 0 => Ar = W Axl Avl with "1 0" -sin(?i*) -cos(^*)sin(<|)*) 0 1 = cos(>,* ) — sinf^t^ ) - sintfj)^ ) 0 0 cos((|)*) L, (65) (66) Substituting (66) into (63) and rearranging terms, one obtains the desired 2D formulation of the positioning problem Washington Academy of Sciences 55 ~1 1 Pc ”P* ~2 i — _! <1 Pc "P* = M Avl ~ m _ m _c • £ex _ |_Pc “P* J + £ M = pi (P*)TW -4-(p;)T w p* pr (Pl”)Tw 1 (67) with the solution Axl Ayl = (Mt • M)_l Mt • Pc - pi Pc -P* _C-£Et_ _Pcm -P*m. (68) Walker Constellations After having assigned a nominal semi-major axis, eccentricity, inclination, common to all space vehicles, a Walker satellite constellation is characterized by three (constant) integer parameters: Tl PI F, where T= total number of satellites, P = number of orbit planes, F= “phase factor”, with 0 < F < (P - 1 ) . From Tl PI F, the following derived parameters are obtained: D Number of satellites per plane: S = T I P ° Pattern unit [deg]: PU =360 IT a In-Plane spacing angle [deg]: IPS = PU x P n Angular spacing of ascending nodes [deg]: NS = PU x S ° Phase delta angle [deg]: PHD = PU x F The PHD is the angular distance of a satellite with respect to the ascending node of its orbit, evaluated at the time when the companion satellite in the next most Western plane achieves its ascending node. A navigation constellation may be designed as the “union” of several distinct constellations, each one being of Walker type. For instance, the Galileo navigation system baseline is a Walker 27/3/1 Fall 2006 56 constellation, with an additional 3/3/1 set of “spare” vehicles, sharing the same orbit planes of the former. Halo Orbits There are no stable Lunar orbits; thus, in order to maintain a spacecraft in a planned trajectory path around the Moon over a long time, frequent station-keeping maneuvers are to be executed. Fuel budget is a critical issue for settling and keeping up a constellation on the Moon. A spacecraft in the Earth-Moon system is the “third body” (of negligible mass) in a configuration with two additional large primaries. The singularities of the manifold of the states of motion are equilibrium points for the dynamical system, named Lagrangian or libration points. A good tutorial is provided by [8] on this topic. There are three “collinear” (LI, L2 and L3) and two “triangular” (L4 and L5) points; in the Earth-Moon system, the Earth is the primary with bigger mass and it is possible to demonstrate that this implies the two “interesting” points LI and L2 are close to the Moon The possibility of taking advantage of the nature of the libration points for useful spacecraft orbits has been analyzed in the literature. In more detail, R.W. Farquhar discovered that full 3D periodic “halo” orbits can occur around LI and L2. He proposed the use of a communication satellite in a halo orbit about L2, then complementing it with a second relay satellite, placed at the cislunar libration point LI. The application of halo orbits for navigation purposes is an interesting perspective. It has been estimated that a cost of about 100 m/s/year is enough to counteract the solar gravity force and radiation pressure that tends to interrupt the periodicity of the halo orbits. The drawback is that halo orbits are difficult to design and implement with real missions; the problem is highly non-linear, so that small changes in the initial conditions compromise the possibility to achieve or to maintain the desired orbit profile, as explained in [8]. Washington Academy of Sciences 57 Sample Lunar Constellation Even with the lack of a rigorous demonstration, it is seen that at least 18 satellites are needed to solve for 3D global positioning on the Moon, without an augmentation performed by ground pseudolites. There is a number of alternative ways to arrange 18 satellites to form a navigation constellation, aiming at covering both its polar and equatorial regions with a suitable positioning service. A proposed example of constellation with 18 space vehicles is made up of: a polar Walker sub-constellation, with T= 12/ P = 3 / F= 2 an equatorial sub-constellation of 6 equally-spaced additional satellites all with null nominal eccentricity and an orbit semi-major axis about 5 times the Moon radius. The overall arrangement is shown in the following picture: z The minimum number of visible satellites is shown hereafter, assuming a masking elevation angle of 2° Fall 2006 lat [deg) Minimum number of visible satellites 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Ion [deg] The worst case PDOP figures are as follows lat [deg] 3D Position Dilution of Precision (PDOP) factor 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Ion [deg] One sees that there are “spots” where temporary performances degrade at a maximum 4.6 times the 1 -sigma of residual error affecting code range Washington Academy of Sciences 59 measurements; all the rest of the surface experiments have satisfactory DOP values, including the polar regions. Conclusion Local and global navigation on the Moon are seen as an achievable objective with current technologies, especially with Pseudolites and Satellite Navigation Constellations, providing that all possibilities and combinations of these “tools” are carefully examined. A strong effort on the study phase will maximize the attainable results, with a proper trade-off between available alternatives. Especially considering the opportunity of complementing the navigation space vehicles with “advanced” ground emitters, it will drive the design of very promising equipment and related localization systems. When dealing with constellations, a number of features are to be accounted for, which include the difficulty of “bringing” and maintaining the satellites on target orbits, due to the lack of stable Moon trajectories. Issues range from geometric DOP figures to the cost for reaching and keeping over time a desired orbit profile by each navigation vehicle. Special care is required in developing mission studies, due to the complexity and inter-discipline skills related to the matter. However, the preliminary feasibility analyses demonstrate that all of this is not science fiction, but a real opportunity for a joint adventure between Europe and America. REFERENCES [1] E.A. LeMaster, S.M. Rock: "Self-Calibration of Pseudolite Arrays Using Self- Differencing Transceivers”. Institute of Navigation GPS-99, Nashville, TN, September 1999. [2] E.A. LeMaster. S.M. Rock: "A Local-Area GPS Pseudolite-Based Mars Navigation System”. IEEE 10th International Conference on Advanced Robotics. Budapest. Hungary', August 2001. [3] E.A. LeMaster. S.M. Rock: "An Improved Solution Algorithm for Self- Calibrating Pseudolite Arrays”. Institute of Navigation National Technical Meeting. San Diego, CA, January' 2002. [4] E.A. LeMaster. S.M. Rock: “A Local-Area GPS Pseudolite-Based Navigation System for Mars Rovers”. Journal of Autonomous Robots. Vol. 14. No. 2-3. Mar- May 2003, pp. 209-224. Fall 2006 60 [5] J. Muller. J.G. Williams. S.G. Tun shew P.J. Shelus: “Potential Capabilities ol Lunar Laser Ranging for Geodesy and Relativity". September 6th. 2005 [6] Tom Murphy (UCSD) "‘Next-Generation Lunar Laser Ranging". Presentation on "APOLLO" (Apache Point Observatory Lunar Laser-ranging Operation) [7] C. Boucher. Z. Altamimi. P. Sillard. M. Feissel- Vernier: “The ITRF 200(T. International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Technical Note No. 31 [8] Franco Bemelli Zazzera. Francesco Topputo. Mauro Massari: “Assessment of Mission Design Including Utilization of Lib ration Points and Weak Stability Boundaries". Study developed under ESA Contract N°.18147/04/NL/MV Washington Academy of Sciences 61 ROBOTIC AID TO MOON BASE P. Magnani(*), B. Midollini(*), B. Papalia(°) (*)Galileo Avionica S.p.A. (°)ENEA This article focuses on the role played by Automation and Robotics (A&R) as part of the logistics system, in support of human beings in the different phases of their presence on the Moon: from exploration, to base settlement and running, to resources localization and exploitation. It was late 13th century when Marco Polo reached China after a 15,000 miles journey on sea and land which took him three and a half years. Two centuries later, Cristoforo Colombo reached America after having sailed for 79 days and 3,000 miles: even if shorter than the journey of his predecessor, this event represented a turning point for our history, marking the end of the medieval age and the start of the modern era. These are only two outstanding examples, but human exploration was born much earlier than then, right since the very first appearance of humanity on the Earth. Since then, humans have extended their exploration, taking advantage meanwhile of the means that scientific and technological research were bringing. Thanks to these means we have been able to cover in few days the over 350,000 km distance from our satellite, to orbit around it and, eventually, to step on the Moon’s surface. Fall 2006 62 Courtesy: NASA Now we are going to face this new challenge: set an initial outpost on the Moon in view of creating a proper, self-reliant, permanently inhabited base, where research and experiments will be carried out, and which will be used as a starting point for future missions of the solar system human exploration. Courtesy: NASA The astronaut is not alone in his adventure: the relatively simple rover used to explore limited areas around the lander in 1970 will be now replaced by systems employing the technologies developed in the last decades, which will provide valid instruments able to perform tasks otherwise not feasible or which will ease human’s work on the Moon. Courtesy: NASA Washington Academy of Sciences 63 Among such systems are those based on robotics and automation techniques. These systems will be effectively used in a number of applications, e g.: • Site exploration • Site preparation • Modules recovery, placement and integration • Resources exploitation • Monitoring and maintenance A first example is provided by Moon exploration: candidate sites for the base installation need to be surveyed prior Courtesy: ESA to final selection in order to check for surface and subsurface characteristics. In this case A&R technology can provide light surveyor rovers with appropriate degrees of autonomy equipped with stereo camera and a positioning system (such as a lunar GPS or lunar Galileo, or local radar/optical reference). This will allow one to build a topographical model of the whole site to be used as reference for all robotic operations. The rovers will also be equipped with drilling and sample manipulation capabilities to determine the physical properties of soil and subsoil. Courtesy: Oak Ridge National Laboratory Fall 2006 64 A&R technology will be used also for site preparation: stones and debris will be removed by means of robotic arms with clamps or shovels end effectors and the terrain will be properly leveled. Digging devices will be used to prepare the terrain for those sections of the base (like stock rooms, tanks or communication lines) which need to be located under the regolith. Once the infrastructure site has been localized and prepared, the various units and modules which have been sent to the Moon (and which are physically distributed on a certain area) must be recovered from the landing place and transported to the right location. To this end, a large vehicle will be used, with specific capabilities for handling and transportation of Courtesy: Texas University payloads where particular care must be taken (for example, sealing capability to protect it from dust or leveling capability). Finally, the modules have to be assembled: also in this case a considerable amount of work can be done by tele-controlled robotic arms installed on a vehicle, or running on a rail system around the module. Courtesy: nasa The robotic system will correctly position the various parts (in terms of relative distance and relative orientation) to allow inflate procedure, deployment and installation; and it will be capable of assembling pipes or communication lines between the different modules. The use of lunar resources is a key point to reduce cost and dependability from Earth. Once identified by sampling and analysis, the material (like rocks or ice) could be collected by autonomous mining vehicles and then refined in-situ (when timely processing is required because of the presence of volatile material) or at dedicated processing plants, and stored for later use. Loose material as well as material cut in Washington Academy of Sciences _ 65 particular shapes can be collected and processed, the shape depending once again on the type of material handled. But the cooperation between astronauts and robots can also be usefully extended to the internal environment. This is a structured environment which, however, may vary either in a correct way (i.e. for the intentional intervention of the astronauts) or because of a problem or malfunction. Courtesy: NASA , , Robotic systems, basing on an a priori knowledge of the plant layout, could automatically detect and evaluate sudden variations and give a warning to the crew. A&R systems can effectively perform tasks of surveillance and detailed inspection, together with transportation of parts, ordinary maintenance, execution of tasks typical for the facility (for example, run of experiment facility or of production areas) and contingency operations. To summarize, the A&R equipment needed for the Moon Base can be grouped as follows: Courtesy: University of Bologna Fall 2006 66 • wheeled or walking medium size vehicles, both for outer and inner operations, allowing astronaut transportation and dexterous interaction with the environment by means of manipulator arms equipped with specialized end effectors; • drilling systems reaching a depth of meters to tens of meters with sampling capability and the possibility to collect and temporarily store large volumes of material; • heavy robots with high thrust and stability against terrain and special simple tools and arms for interaction with the soil; • large roving vehicles and cranes capable of handling big payloads with simple interfaces and allowing stable transportation also on an unprepared terrain; • small robots for inspection, repair and maintenance with crawling capability and smart articulation For all these equipment, the main control mode should be tele-operation with astronaut supervision, while simple or repetitive tasks can be performed autonomously. In both cases, the majority of tasks will be planned and tested in advance. The basic building blocks are common to all these robotic equipment, and this permits one to undertake a modular approach for the design. Also, Italy can rely on the experience and capability gained not only in robotics, but in general in integrated space systems and missions definition. This allows us to reduce the design efforts and to effectively contribute to the implementation of the robotic support to Moon Base. Washington Academy of Sciences Fall 2006 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 69 JANE AND JOHN BORN IN LUNAR JAMESTOWN, 2020 AN OUTLINE OF A RESEARCH PROJECT ON SEXUALITY, FERTILITY, PREGNANCY, AND BIRTH ON THE MOON Roberto Varrasi, MD Alberto Revelli, MD Department of Obstetrical and Gynaecological Sciences University of Toruno. Italy Abstract In order to have a safe birth on the Moon or in other low gravity or no gravity environments, we need to know much more about how gravity, or the absence of it affects the human body and its functioning related o fertility, pregnancy, and birth. This paper briefly outlines the research needed to supply this know ledge. Introduction THE birth of a baby represents the continuity of humanity, and therefore is always a blessing; this is even more valid if the baby first sees the light in Jamestown, the first human colony on the Moon. The first baby born in Jamestown will certainly be mentioned in the history books as the first real Universe explorer. This baby will be more important than Cristoforo Colombo or Neil Armstrong: they were bom on the Earth, while she or he will be the first human being born outside the “Mother Earth,” and therefore will automatically become the living symbol of the humanity that wants to explore and pacifically colonize other Worlds. In order to have a safe birth, at least from the point of view of health, the road is very difficult: a wide research program is necessary to guarantee to the baby and to the mother the best conditions for this very important test. Studies of the human body’s behavior outside the protection of Mother Earth are still at the first steps; to date, it is not well known what all the consequences may be of the prolonged absence of gravity or low gravity environment and artificial atmosphere. Fall 2006 70 This is, in particular, applicable to problems related to sexuality and reproduction. Scientific Program Background and Rationale The physiology of human reproduction is of major interest when hypothesizing a human colony living in the Moonbase in Jamestown in the near future. At present knowledge about human reproduction outside the Earth’s atmosphere is, to the best of our knowledge, totally lacking, and thorough experimental work through a broad research program is needed to estimate the reproductive potential of human beings on the Moon. The scientific program will include not only tests and instrumental analyses, but these activities will be constantly supported by scientific interviews with the persons involved in the experimental program. The following scientific and experimental steps will give us the necessary information to obtain safe born of a baby on the Moon. Step 1: Sexuality The first step is aimed at identifying the behaviours associated with sexuality. Two areas of research are identified. The Physiology of Erection and Ejaculation : Healthy volunteers living in the absence of gravity or in a low gravity environment are given stimulation and results are measured with proper instrumentation. Semen win be collected and transferred to analysis. No severe technological issue is identified. Intercourse: The dynamics of sexual intercourse in absence of gravity or in a low gravity environment are studied. Step 2: Fertility The second step is to identify the behaviors associated with the physiology of female and male sexual apparatus. With respect to issues that have high ethical contents, animal models will be utilized as a first step. The following areas of research are identified. Menstruation and Owlation: The menstrual rhythm of healthy female volunteers living in the absence of gravity or in a low gravity environment is recorded. During the menstrual cycle they are submitted to repeated blood sampling aimed to estimate the occurrence of ovulation and to Washington Academy of Sciences 71 check for the eventual increase of stress hormones potentially interfering with ovulation. Semen Examination: Semen samples are objectively studied in situ by a computer-assisted analyser. A necessary technological issue is to develop an apparatus to perform this test in the absence of gravity Semen Ccipcicitation : Collected semen samples are processed through an automatic semen capacitating apparatus; the final preparation is analysed by a computer-assisted semen analyser. The above defined technological issue applies. In Vitro Fertilization ( IVF ): This issue, which implies ethical problems, is one of the subjects to be treated also by means of animal models. Animal models will be based on associated studies of mice and lab-raised monkeys. The purpose of this experiment is to obtain fertilization of ova in orbit or in a low-g environment. Several analytical approaches could be used. A first hypothesis is to analyse the fertilization potential of fresh oocytes obtained on the ground and incubated in orbit with fresh or thawed semen. A second possibility could be the utilization of frozen oocytes from fertile subjects that are thawed in the absence of gravity and fertilized in vitro with spermatozoa taken from frozen-thawed or freshly produced semen samples of fertile healthy subjects. In this second case the intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) is applied to get fertilization. The injected oocytes are kept in IVF incubators and fertilization is assessed by microscopy some hours later. Mandatory technological improvement associated with this hypothesis is to develop an apparatus able to automatically perform intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Embryo Development: This issue is a direct follow-up of the previous problem; therefore, in this case also animal models will apply, in accordance with the above defined approach. The purpose of this experiment is to observe the development, in the absence of gravity or in a low gravity environment, of fertilised ova in the first six days of life. Fertilized oocytes are kept in IVF incubators up to day 6 of development. Their growth is daily observed by an invertoscope until they Fall 2006 72 reach the blastocyst stage (day 6). After the return to ground and the recovery of these embryos, ultrastructural and chromosomal analysis will be performed. Proper flight standards of the normally utilized laboratory instrumentation shall be developed. Step 3 : Pregnancy This issue, even if does not imply ethical problems, is also one of the subjects to be treated by means of animal models. This third step is designed to analyze the behaviors associated with the pregnancy. Two areas of research are identified. It has to be observed that, considering the duration of the pregnancy either of humans or of the candidate animal models, several possibilities could be considered; i.e., having the test subjects in the absence of gravity or in a low gravity environment only for a part of the pregnancy, eg. the first or the central part of the pregnancy. Also in this case, proper flight standards for the normally utilized laboratory instrumentation shall be developed. Utero-placental Blood Fluxes: The blood fluxes in the uterine and umbilical circulation are studied by ultrasound Doppler fluximetry in the absence of gravity at different stages of a normal pregnancy (I, II and III trimester). The foetal growth is assessed throughout the pregnancy by repeated ultrasound-based biometry. Foetal Heart Beal: The foetal heart beat of healthy foetuses in the third trimester of pregnancy are registered by cardiotocography in the absence of gravity. Step 4: Delivery The last step is obviously the goal of the entire scientific program and is associated with the delivery of the baby, and with the problems associated with neonatal care. Animal models (i.e. delivery of babies of animals) will obviously anticipate delivery of the human baby. Spontaneous Vasinal Delivery: A spontaneous vaginal delivery is observed in the absence of gravity or in the presence of reduced gravity. Neonatal Care: A newborn delivered in the absence of gravity or in the presence of reduced gravity is studied with particular attention to the respiratory and cardiovascular functions. Washington Academy of Sciences 73 Programmatic Considerations All the above activities require several years to be performed; this applies in particular to those experimental activities that need development of automatic equipment to be utilized on orbit. During the program it is clear that development of animal models must be performed before the development of corresponding experiments on humans, in order to benefit from the experience with animals. Fall 2006 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences * A MOON BASE KNOWLEDGE AND IMAGINATION PORTAL 75 Gabriele Peraldo Bertinet, Rodolfo Guzzi, Bruno Ratti, Anna Rebecchi Geoknowledge Foundation’ “Che sulla lima... non intendo gia come tuttalvolta che non vi si generino cose simili alle nostre " (Galileo “Dialogo dei Massiini Sistemi") Abstract Knowledge represents the ultimate rational of the Moon Base Enterprise and more generally of space exploration. In the present Knowledge Society, knowledge is central for its capability to create value through cognitive multiplication based on sharing and reuse. In this paper the creation of “A Moon Base Knowledge Portal” infrastructure to this aim is proposed. The Portal will be structured as a multidisciplinary Portal of Portals based on formal ontology. This Portal can permit achievement of important objectives essential for the success of the Moon Base Program, in particular: to support an Inspiration Program to involve new and future generations of students; to obtain consensus of public opinion and support of all stakeholders (government, science, universities, taxpayers) who must share aims and objectives of the Program. Fall 2006 Introduction The Earth-Moon System probably was born as a result of a collision between the young Earth and other smaller planetary bodies that were also growing. One of these hit Earth late in Earth's growth process, blowing out rocky debris. A fraction of that debris went into orbit around the Earth and aggregated into the Moon about 4.5 billion years ago (W. K. Hartmann and D. R. Davis 1975). The giant impact hypothesis had the advantage of invoking a stochastic catastrophic event that might happen only to one or two planets out of nine. Furthermore, as also was evidenced by the rocks collected during the Apollo Moon landings, the Moon has exactly the same oxygen isotope composition as the Earth, showing that the Moon formed from material found in Earth's mantle. Mars rocks and meteorites from other parts of the Solar System have different oxygen isotope compositions. This giant impact may have also produced the Earth’s axial tilt and initial rotation. For these reasons the Moon has been essential for the formation of the terrestrial environment and, being part of the history of the Earth, has co-evolved with the birth and evolution of mankind. Its presence in the sky was never seen as an anomalous presence, but humans always aspired to the Moon because they understood its influence on several natural events that were linked to life. Its presence became part of our biological and cultural memory. In the ancient cult the Moon was a Goddess, and poets, painters, and musicians have dedicated their art to our Moon before scientists discovered that the Moon influences several phenomena on the Earth from sea tides to tree growth up to the recently guessed influence on human life and death. For these reasons our Moon is in the immaginario collettivo (collective imagination) and its appeal crosses the whole range of human imagination and emotions. Thus the Moon is not only the subject of knowledge but it is part of our imagination and, today, the Earth-Moon system belongs more to the imagination than to the science. The aim of this paper is to treat the Moon not only as subject of knowledge, but also part of our imagination, fantasy, and dreams. The best representation in which science and fantasy are combined is a pertinent portal whose structure and function will be outlined in the next paragraphs. Washington Academy of Sciences 77 Ontology Quest and Web Portal Structure The basis of knowledge is the ontology quest. This marks the cultural aspect of people and their heritage. The basic assumptions for one culture may be not the same for another. People’s queries differ from one culture to another, even though the imagination and emotions may play a certain role, and the ontology quest follows these aspects. Educational tools (Guzzi et al 2005) may be developed by formal ontology (Cocchiarella 1991) and that are able to reach different users: ■ To support an Inspiration Program with extensive use of advanced e-learning techniques, to involve new and future generation of students, at different degrees, in science, engineering, technology disciplines relevant to Space Exploration; ■ To obtain consensus of public opinion by media; ■ To support all stakeholders (government, science, universities, taxpayers) which must share aims and objectives of the Program, through an effective communication on space exploration’s expected results. The best solution to these questions, which also causes web surfers to dream, is to create a web portal whose aim is to produce knowledge and induce fantasy. Such portals could be the “Moon Base Knowledge & Imagination Portal.” The access through the Portal to video and simulation games can engage, in particular, young people very familiar with virtual reality, multimedia, and web techniques, in learning principles of celestial mechanics, space flight, and exploration activities, achieving extraordinary educational results and benefits. In addition mysterious rooms will be created to support the imagination and induce the fantasy of the users. The Moon Base Knowledge and Imagination Portal will be implemented as a “Portal of Portals” developing the encounter between nations participating in the Moon Enterprise. It will be the result of an International Cooperative Program involving: ■ International and national space agencies; ■ Scientific institutes and research centers; ■ Universities; ■ Private companies operating in space and related sectors; and Fall 2006 ■ Cultural associations and foundations. As a result of this cooperative effort a Partnership will be established between participant entities inclusive of a management structure responsible for direction, standards definition admission policies, intellectual property, etc. Building up the Web Portal The Web Portal will be structured in four major areas: scientific knowledge, system and engineering activities, enabling technologies and applications, and institutional legal and economic framework. Scientific Knowledge This is relevant mainly to the results of colonization and of the Condominium of Observatories on the Moon. Among the topics to be included: ■ Cosmology; ■ Planetology: with particular emphasis to study of the Moon- Earth System; ■ Climatology: climate change, interactions between solar activity and climate on the Earth ■ Life science; and ■ Energy generation and storage. Information will be organized in different levels of complexity for different targets of people accessing this Portal, having in mind the objective of maximum dispersion and sharing of knowledge. System and Engineering Activities Implementations and activities to build up and maintain a Space Infrastructure on the Moon will be outlined in this area, in order to keep people informed and involved in the enterprise. Among the topics addressed: ■ Lunar Missions profiles; ■ Space transportation systems; ■ Living modules; ■ Life support systems; ■ Environmental control Systems; ■ Observation Payloads and Infrastructures; ■ Communication and Location Infrastructure; and Washington Academy of Sciences 79 ■ Lunar Resources Exploitation. Enabling Technologies and Applications Development of the enabling technologies and applications supporting the Moon Program will be indicated and summarized while remaining compatible with intellectual property rights and “sensitivity” of information. Emphasis will be given to technologies which may have a direct fallout on our day by day lives as: ■ Telemedicine; ■ Advanced Materials and structures ■ Robotics; ■ Advanced nuclear power generation; ■ Wide Band Communications; ■ Nanotechnologies; ■ Observation sensors; ■ Waste material recycling; and ■ Environmental Control. Institutional Legal and Economical Framework The establishment of an International Cooperation between governments and Partnerships with private industry financial involvement (PPP) will be a way to implement the Project. Commercial exploitation of resources and new products deriving from the colonization of the Moon may require the reconsideration of the 1967 Space Treaty. Issues of property rights, freedom of navigation, and technology transfer will become relevant. All these aspects and their evolution will be dealt in this area of the Portal. Furthermore, within the Web Portal mysterious rooms will be present along the whole portal stimulating the fantasy and the imagination, in the same way as happened for the early theories of the origin of Earth and Moon, because fantasy and imagination are also crucial for future discovers of mankind. The Geoknowledge Paradigm Within the Moon Base Knowledge & Imagination Portal a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) Portal to represent the “geographic Fall 2006 80 knowledge” of the Moon will be also implemented to discover the geographic dimension of our life in the new continent of the Moon. The Moon is considered as the Earth’s seventh continent, the colonization of which would lead to increased acumen, so maintaining the geo-knowledge terminology for the Moon goes with retaining ontology, semantics, and methodologies used for the knowledge of the Earth. The geo-knowledge of the Moon will be referred to Earth sciences (such as geophysics, geology, topography) and processes on the Moon (such as mobility, production of energy, buildup of infrastructures, exploitation of resources). For these reasons a 3D Moon GIS has to be implemented to support missions on the Moon. Example Web Portal Every information system has its own ontology ascribing meaning to the symbols used according to a particular vision of the world (Guarino 1995, 1998). The Information System consists of three different components: application programs, information resources like databases and/or knowledge bases and user interfaces. The ontology impacts on information systems by two orthogonal dimensions: temporal and structural. In the first case the semantics expressed by ontology is transformed and translated into an information system component. In fact, users reuse the knowledge instead of the software by using a common vocabulary across heterogeneous software platforms (even though current ontology is limited yet). In the second case, even though the quantity of ontological knowledge available may be poor, the quality can improve the analysis process. Graphic Interface In a portal the major role is played by the graphics interface. We don’t enter into the methodology of the web portal building, but describe here the ontology of the portal and the operations to be carried out. Users act on classes and descriptors of the system getting directories containing images, data, movies and sound files related to the topics of the domain knowledge selected. During this phase, the system acts selecting the best items or statements describing the domain knowledge. The task is carried out by an Evaluator, in which the domain knowledge is explicitly transferred by means of simple rules defined in system. This unit Washington Academy of Sciences 81 maintains and uses the Ontology Integration System to Information System. Figure 1 shows the layout of the system. Figures 2 and 3 show both the iconographic aspect of the Portal and its appeal. Figure 1: Structure of the system with the evaluator between the formalized knowledge and users’ knowledge Fall 2006 82 Washington Academy of Sciences 83 Figure 3: MOON BASE Knowledge & imagination portal. Contents artistic view Movies and Role Games Using formal ontology an educational tool about Moon missions has been developed. It is shown in figure 4. The techniques have been described by Guzzi et al (2005) for planetary missions. We referred to some detailed scientific documents on space mission design (Wertz, Larson (1999) and Doody (2001)) to identify the main parameters affecting a generic space mission. Real Moon missions documented by NASA (JPL-NASA, NASA missions, JPL reports, NASA database) have been used to tune mission parameters and main items with real mission quantities. We have fragmented a hypothetical mission into several pieces and within these we have identified several possible different cases. A proper interface to QuickTime has been built up for AVI and MPEG movies, which are in the right part of the picture. In the upper left the chosen instrument for the scientific mission, in the middle the instruments to perform the space mission (from the navigation sensors to power, etc), and in the lower part the suitable amount of fuel. Fall 2006 84 Figure 4: Graphic user interface of Space Mission as described in the text The Launch Button allows the mission to run and to be visualized. Vice versa when a set up error occurs, a warning related to the mission failure is shown. The warning also contains a link to the space mission online manual where there is information allowing the usei to understand his error and correct it. Conclusions In this paper we have outlined a Portal of Portals for Moon missions and discoveries. Despite the technical aspect of the mission, we have remembered the role played by the Moon on imagination, our memory and our fantasy. For this reason we have introduced in our Portal the concept of imagination and we have drawn the pertinent iconographies in order to give more appeal to the information system. At the same time we have introduced the formal ontology and its first application already Washington Academy of Sciences 85 done and addressed to the Moon Mission. Furthermore since, nowadays, we have matured our primordial mental geography in a way to build the first cartography of the Moon as we made with the first continents some centuries ago; considering the Moon as the seventh continent, we also introduced the first Moon GIS to give the first geographic route for future travelers. References: Cocchiarella. N. B. 1991. “Formal Ontology’' In H. Burkhardt and B. Smith (eds.). Handbook of Metaphysics and Ontology. Philosophia Verlag. Munich: 640- 647 Doodv (2001) “Basics of Space Flight’* JPL D-20120. Dave Doody. February 2001. from Imp : //www . j pi . nasa . gov/basics/ Guarino N.. “Formal Ontology. Conceptual Analysis and Knowledge Representation” International Journal of Human and Computer Studies , special issue on The Role of Formal Ontology in the Information Technology edited by N. Guarino and R. Poli. vol 43 no. 5/6. 1995 Guarino N.. “Formal Ontology and Information Systems”. In N. Guarino (ed.). Formal Ontology in Information Systems Proc. of the 1st International Conference. Trento. Italy, 6-8 June 1998. IOS Press (amended version) you may refer also to the online database http: ' 'm’ww. ladseb. yd. cm. n intor ontoloz\ 'Papers ( )nioioz\ ’Papers. htnrl #Onlol ogv Guzzi R.. S. Scarpanti, G.Ballista. & W. DiNicolantonio 2005 Educational Technology & Society 8. (1) 80-90 Hartmann. W. K. and D. R. Davis 1975 Icarus . 24. 505 JPL NASA home page at http://ww w. jpl.nasa. gov/ JPL NASA mission reports at http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/status/ NASA planetary database at http : //photo i oumal . jpl . nasa. gov/ JPL NASA current space missions at http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/ James Wertz. Wiley Larson. “Space Mission Analysis and Design.” Space Technology Library, Larson and Microcosm, inc. Third Edition. 1999. * The GeoKnowledge Foundation: Considering that space exploration has introduced a system approach in remote-sensing and modelling the planets in our Solar System, thus improving the knowledge of the planetEarth, and that developments in information and communication technology have facilitated a new model of knowledge, based on sharing and reuse, the Foundation’s aim is to systematically develop geo-knowledge according to the paradigms of the Knowledge Society, activating a collaboration network of the principal agents of the geographic information and introducing a cognitive multiplication factor into the sustainable usage of the territory. The Foundation will: ■ create a cultural meeting point for institutions and individuals who are interested in geographic knowledge, which will generate scientific, social, technological and economic guidelines; Fall 2006 86 foster the creation of epistemological geographic communities, where shared knowledge will be based on a common ontology of the territorial context which unifies visions, viewpoints and meanings: stimulate an interdisciplinary discussion on models of geographic knowledge, at national and international level: promote the awareness that GIS (Geographic Information Systems) are essential tools for the intelligence of natural and anthropic processes which exist in our territory' and are a common language for increasing geographic knowledge. Geoknowledge Foundation • Via Tiburtina. 755 • Tel. 06 40696201 • Fax 06 40696333 • info(5>geoknowledgefoundation.org Washington Academy of Sciences 87 NEWS OF MEMBERS AND AFFILIATED SOCIETIES TO JERRY GIBBON, former president of the Academy, our sincere condolences on the death of his son, in October. SETHANNE HOWARD, Associate Editor of this Journal, has announced the forthcoming publication of her book. The Hidden Giants , discussing the 4000 year history of women in science. SAJ DURRANI has been elected President of the D C. Council of Engineering and Architectural Societies. The Council, formed in 1936, has more than 35 affiliated societies. The American Statistical Society’s new president is Jill Montaquila, of Westat, Inc. Michael Cohen is the President Elect and continues as the Society’s representative to the Academy’s Board. THE IEEE COMMUNICATIONS society will hold a Global Communications Conference in Washington on November 26-30, 2007. This event regularly attracts several thousand attendees. Jerry Gibbon will serve as General Chairman of GlobeCom2007. For more information see www.ieee-gl obecom. ora/2007. Please send news of Members and Affiliated Societies , including events to occur after December 2006 to the Editor , vcoates@mac.com. Fall 2006 DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America Paul Arveson American/Intemational Association of Dental Research J. Terrell Hoffeld American Association of Physics Teachers Frank R. Haig, S.J. American Ceramics Society VACANT American Fisheries Society Ramona Schreiber American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics David W. Brandt American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Michael Greeley American Meteorological Society Kenneth Carey American Nuclear Society Steven Arndt American Phytopathological Society Kenneth L. Deahl American Society for Cybernetics Stuart Umpleby American Society for Microbiology VACANT American Society of Civil Engineers Kimberly Hughes American Society of Mechanical Engineers Daniel J. Vavrick American Society of Plant Physiology Mark Holland Anthropological Society of Washington Marilyn London ASM International Toni Marechaux Association for Women in Science (AWIS) Emanuela Appetiti Association for Computing Machinery Lee Ohringer Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation F. Douglas Witherspoon Association of Information Technology Professionals Barbara Saffanek Biological Society of Washington VACANT Botanical Society of Washington Alain Touwaide Chemical Society of Washington James J. Zwolenik District of Columbia Institute of Chemists James J. Zwolenik District of Columbia Psychology Association David Williams Eastern Sociological Society Ronald W. Mandersheid Electrochemical Society Robert L. Ruedisueli Entomological Society of Washington F. 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MCZ library Volume 92 Number 4 WAR 1 3 2007 Winter 2007 Journal of the HARVARD UNIVERSITY WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Contents The Editor Comments . i Instructions to Authors . ii Athanasios Diamandopolous, Artemisia Revisited . 1 Robert M. Cutler, The Paradox of Intentional Emergent Coherence . 9 Roulette William Smith, Nature versus Nurture in Evolution, and Emergences of Designs in Genetics, the Immune System, and the Brain . 29 Thomas Meylan, Environmental Impacts on Human Moods and Emotions: Implications for Workplace and Workflow Design . 51 Vary Coates, BOOK REVIEW: The Best Science Writing 2006, ed. by Atul Gawande . 73 News of Members, Fellows, and Affiliates . 75 Affiliated Institutions . 78 Membership Directory . 79 Affiliated Societies . Inside back cover ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC l^asiJjtngton Scabemp of Sciences! Founded in 1898 Board of Managers Elected Officers The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences President William Boyer President Elect Alain Towaide Treasurer Harvey Freeman Secretary James Cole Vice President, Administration Rex Klopfenstein Vice President, Membership Thomas Meylan Vice President, Junior Academy Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliated Societies Mark Holland Members at Large Sethanne Howard Donna Dean Frank Haig, S.J. Jodi Wesemann Vary Coates The Journal is the official organ of the Academy. It publishes articles on science policy, the history of science, critical reviews, original science research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest to its members. It is published quarterly. The last issue of the year contains a directory of the current membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Members, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal free of charge. 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Coates Associate Editors: Alain Touwaide Sethanne Howard Elizabeth Corona POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WAS, Rm.631, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC. 20005 Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Academy Office Washington Academy of Sciences Room 63 1 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202/326-8975 email: was@washacadsci.org Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences 202/326-8975 website: www.washacadsci.org THE EDITORS COMMENT: MCZ1 LIBRARY MAR 1 3 2007 HARVARD A DIRECTORY OF THE FELLOWS AND MEMBERS of WA$^^?tF?SlTY as is traditional, in the Winter Issue of the Journal. The dues, contributions, and volunteer labor of these members support all of the activities of WAS: for example, the publication of the Journal, the planning and organization of the biannual Capital Science Conferences and other specialized conferences throughout the year, and the Junior Academy STARS program that provides judges and awards for many local school science fairs. We take this opportunity to make a special appeal to the Members and Fellows — for help in reaching out to the many scientific societies in the Washington Metropolitan Area in order better to carry out our goal of showcasing and encouraging the work of local scientists, engineers, and science teachers. We seek to do this by publishing their papers in this peer-reviewed Journal, and by organizing conferences and seminars on topics of special interest to them. Most, if not all, WAS members belong to local chapters of scientific societies, nearly 60 of which are formally affiliated with WAS (see the list on the inside back cover of the Journal). The Affiliates’ other members, however, are not always familiar with the Academy and with its activities, or with the Journal. We ask that when you go to meetings of these societies, you take one or more issues of the Journal to display, and invite the attendees to subscribe, and to contribute papers. The WAS office can, on request, supply some additional copies of the Journal for this purpose. We thank our members and subscribers for their participation and support throughout 2006, and look forward to working for you and with you in 2007-2008. Please contact the Editors to submit papers or book reviews, to send news items about your own or others’ science related activities, and to suggest ways to improve the Journal. Editor: Vary Coates, v coates@ m ac . com Assoc. Editor: Alain Touwaide, atouwaide@hotmail com Assoc. Editor: Sethanne Floward, sethanneh@msn.com Assoc. Editor: Elizabeth Corona, el i zab eth corona@ mnai 1 . com Winter 2006 II INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS THE JOURNAL of the Washington Academy of Sciences is a peer-reviewed journal. Exceptions are made for papers requested by the editors or positively approved for presentation or publication by one of our affiliated scientific societies. We welcome disciplinary and interdisciplinary scientific research reports and papers on technology development and innovation, science policy, technology assessment, and history of science and technology. Book reviews are also welcome. Contributors of papers are requested to follow these guidelines carefully. • Papers should be submitted as e-mail attachments to the chief editor, vcoatesc/ mac.com. along with full contact information for the primary or corresponding author. • Papers should be presented in Word: do not send PDF files. • Papers should be 6000 words or fewer. If more than 6 graphics are included the number of words allowed will be reduced accordingly. • Graphics must be in black and white only. They must be easily resized and relocated. It is best to put graphics, including tables, at the end of the paper or in a separate document, with their preferred location in the text clearly indicated. • References should be in the form of endnotes, and may be in any style considered standard in the discipline(s) represented by the paper. Winter 2006 1 ARTEMISIA REVISITED Diamandopoulos Athanasios* Saint Andrews Regional Hospital Patras. Greece Abstract Recently, several groups have promoted the use of artemisinin, a derivative of the plant artemisia. as a potent antimalarial. It is cultivated widely in China and there is hope that it could replace quinine to which plasmodium falciparum has developed resistance. In this article, we trace the use of artemisinin for treating malaria as far back as the 1st century AD. in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin. Its employment for this purpose continued in a semi-official mode until the 19th century. It was finally replaced by quinine, albeit now we witness a comeback. In conclusion, artemisinin is but an old drug of Western medical tradition in new exotic clothes, still potent and beneficial. The use of Artemisinin, a derivative of the plant Artemisia, as an anti-malaria drug, has recently gotten extended publicity both in the daily [1,2] and the scientific press [3,4], Specifically, there was strong criticism of the World Health Organization (WHO) on the grounds that it failed to foresee in time the potential of the substance and use it in Africa, where the disease is endemic and frequently fatal [5,6,7], In summary, it was pointed out that the Organization “ignored a new Chinese drug proved efficient to treat malaria since the Vietnam War [8], favoring the old drug, quinine.” Although from a strictly medical point of view the statement seems sound, from a historical perspective we suggest that all three components of the statement should be altered. The drug is not new, it is not exclusively Chinese, and its efficiency against malaria and other parasitic diseases has been well known since antiquity.1 Malaria has been an endemic disease in Greece and the Mediterranean Basin since the Neolithic period, with exacerbations in the Classic and Roman eras. The author is President of the Panhellenic Society for the History and Archaeology of Medicine. Winter 2006 2 Hippocrates in his works De aere aquis et locis and De mortis popularity s made several references to tertian and quartian fevers accompanied with symptoms resembling the malarial ones. Similarly, Plato referred to this kind of fevers in Timeus. An extended overview of the incidence of malaria in Greece can be found in the work of Mirko Grmek, “Les maladies a l’aube de la civilisation occidental ” [9] No specific treatment was mentioned in the Classic period, although there are allusions related to the plant artemisia in the mythological cycle of the god Dionysus. [10] An early medical reference to it was made by the celebrated Greek medical writer Dioscorides in his work De Materia Medica, in the 1st cent. AD, wherein its properties as a warming, drying and purgative drug are described. [11] The plant was also called oxetesia, ephesia, anactorios, sozusa, lea, lycophrys, sanguis hominis, chrysanthemon, herba regia, rapium, tetrabageta, ponem, zuoste. [12] It was synonymous and/or likened to absinth. [13] It was recommended for many diseases such as parasites of the bowel, kidney stones and intended miscarriage of dead embryos. More relevant to the topic of this article is that Dioscorides also proposed it as a cure for tertian or quartian fevers, [14,15] terms that are still used to describe malarial fever. If there is any doubt about the inclusion of malaria in the array of diseases manifested with this kind of fever, Galen (lst/2nd cent. AD) clarifies the issue. He proposed the use of artemisia against tertian and quartian fevers and describing other findings of the disease he added: “it is accompanied by [. . .] infection and enlargement of the spleen,” [16] findings typical for malaria. [17] We can hardly expect the use of the actual word malaria in texts written 20 centuries ago. The notion was repeated by many medical writers of Late Antiquity and Byzantium [18,19,20,21,22] who continuously suggested the use of artemisia in tertian and quartian fevers. It was also recommended specifically against the hardening of the spleen. [23] The practice of using artemisia as a medicament passed via Dioscorides’ De Materia Medica in the Latin West and then in the Medieval Herbaria. With the invention of printing in the 15th century, ancient medical knowledge spread quickly across Europe and consequently did so the use of artemisia. [24] Washington Academy of Sciences 3 With the appearance of the Enlightenment and the domination of scientific over traditional medicine, the use of artemisia as an antimalarial agent started to fade. It was preserved in some odd quarters, like the “kitchen - medicine” of the Henriot sisters in the Swiss town of Covet, where they prepared at their tiny still on a kitchen stove a concoction containing, between other ingredients, absinth, otherwise known as artemisia, in the time honoured way of the “wise women ” It was consumed as a general panacea for many diseases or just as a health booster. A French royalist, the physician Pierre Ordinaire (1741-1821), staying in self-exile in the village, was acquainted with the drink and began peddling it. The concoction was called Absinthe as the Latin name of one of its ingredients (wormwood, meaning in German “preserver of the mind”) was Artemisia Absinthum . Later (in 1797), the recipe was bought by a Major Henri Dubied and through his enterprising heirs who opened a larger distillery at Pontarlier, France, was introduced to the French illustrious society, initiating the absinth frenzy. [25] This was a repetition of the ancient’s idea that the substance was simultaneously a potent stimulant and an agent promoting soberness to its consumer, while he was drinking heavily. [26] The consumption of liquors or other mixtures containing absinth was consequently banned from Europe because of its side effects, except for a few countries like Denmark and Czechoslovakia. Through the Internet it started again to be advertised world - wide as a symbol of culture and invigoration. [27] Traditionally, it belongs to the bitter drinks group like Vermouth and Amaretto, the latter containing bitter almonds instead of absinth. Galen had already suggested the replacement of absinth by bitter almonds, if there was a lack of the former [28], Recently, the Chinese promoted it again as an ancient plant from their traditional pharmacopoeia, reputably incorporated in the Sheng Nung’s writings circa 101 BC, as introduced by the Divine Ploughmen around 2800 BC. [29] They cultivated it widely, extracting its active substance artemisinin, which is a sesuiterpene with five oxygen atoms, two of them in a peroxide bridge system over a seven-member ring with two others in a lactone ring structure [30] and branding it under the name of artemisinin. In May 2001, the big drug company Novartis made a public- private collaboration agreement with the World Health Organization Winter 2006 4 (WHO) in the fight against malaria. The essence of the agreement is that Novartis commits to making Coartem® (a drug containing a derivative of artemisia) available on a "not-for-profit" basis for distribution to public sector agencies of malaria-endemic developing countries. Through grants provided by “The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria”, j Novartis has equally undertaken to supply, under the aegis of WHO, Coartem® to public sector agencies [3 1 ^Consequently, we do not meet the problem of a new drug facing difficulties in ousting an old, established one, but on the contrary, a very old drug, trying hard to reclaim its position from the usurper quinine. It is characteristic that currently there are roughly seventeen thousand entries on the Internet discussing artemisia, one thousand four hundred proclaiming its antimalarial properties and only one connecting it with Dioscorides, but failing to notice the indication in De Materia Medica for treating tertian and quartian fevers. It is the usual “I said it first” syndrome we observe in the History of Medicine. [32] Everyone rediscovering an abandoned treatment advertises it loudly, ignoring or forgetting to state that many before him had used it. But the really great scientist always announces his debt to previous writers. As for example Isaac Newton (1642-1727) who wrote: “If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.” However he forgot to add that the same expression has been used by Robert Burton (1577-1640) in his introduction to “Democritus to the Reader,” who did not mention that it belonged to Diego de Estella’s (1524-1578) “In Sacrosanctum Iesu Christi Evangelium secundum Lucam enarratio,” who failed to report that it had been used by Bernard de Chartres (d. 1126) [33], In spite of the above implication of practising plagiarism it would be wrong to assume that modem researchers in general, and the advocates of artemisinin in particular, do not do anything more than copy the ancients. Because: “even if the ancients had discovered everything, one thing will be always new, the application of the discoveries already made and their interpretation.” [34] 1 Etymologically. The botanical species name of wormwood, absinthium , is indeed the classical Latin name for that plant and derives from Greek apsinthion [a\|/iv0iov] (in the New Testament apsinthos [a\j/iv0og]): the word still lives in some Romance tongues: Italian assenzio . Spanish ajenjo , Galician axenxo and Portuguese absinto. It lias also spread to some unrelated languages, like Basque axinse and Hebrew absint [ttf’DDKn]. Washington Academy of Sciences 5 The etymology of Greek apsinthion is not clearly explained: a theory derives it from a- (negation) + psinthos |vj/iv0oq]. an obscure adjective meaning "enjoyable.” cf. also Sanskrit ashiva "unpleasant, pernicious ". The meaning of the compound, "unpleasant,"" would seem fit for a bitter herb, but may well be the product of folk etymology. A better guess is that tire name actually stems from some Middle Eastern language: in Middle Persian, the name aspemd is recorded for a bitter plant (perhaps Syrian rue. Peganum harmala ): modem Farsi has afsentin [ "wormwood"' and espemd [>hH] ""Syrian me". This plant is not related to the herb commonly called rue. (http://www.uni- eraz.atATatzer/end/Artc vul.html#absinthe) REFERENCES 1. BBC Homepage. 20/5/2004. http :/Avw w . bbc . co.uk/dna/h2 g2/ A 7 84046 2. DJ McNeil. Switch to herbal malaria drug is on. Herald Tribune . (10/5/2004). p. 1. 3. G Yamey. Health agencies and in - fighting on malaria. BMJ (2004), 328: 1095 (8/5) 4. MB Denis. TM Davis. S Hewitt, et al.. Efficacy and safety of dihydroartemisinin - piperaquine ( Artekin) in Cambodian children and adults with uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Clin Infect. Dis. 35 (2002). pp 1469 - 1476. 5. N White. F Noston. A Bjorkman et al. WHO. the Global Fund, and medical malpractice in malaria treatment. Lancet. 363 (2004), p. 1 160. 6. A Attaran. KI Bames. C Curtis et al. WHO. The global Fund, and medical malpractice in malaria research. Lancet. 363 (2004). P. 237. 7. K Bames. J Mwenechanya, M Tempo, et al. Efficacy of rectal artesunate compared with parental quinine in initial treatment of moderately severe malaria in African children and adults: a randomized study. Lancet. 363 (2004) p. 1598. 8. T Hien, C Dolescek. P Phuong et al. Dihydroartemisinin - piperaquine against multidrug - resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Vietnam: randomized clinical trial. Lancet. 363 (2004). Issue 9402. p. 18 - 22. 9. M Gnnek. Les maladies a l'aube de la civilisation occidentale. Payot (edt) (1983). Paris. 10. Bibliotheca, ed. R Henry. Photius. Bibliotheque. 8 vols. Paris: Les Belles Lettres. 1:1959: codex. 190, p,150a.* 1. 27. 11. De materia medica, ed. M. Wellmann. Pedanii Dioscuridis Anazarbei de materia medica libri quinque. 3 vols. Berlin: Weidmann. 3:1914. book 3. ch. 113. s. 1. 1. 1. Winter 2006 6 12. R Gunther. The Greek Herbal of Dioscorides. illustrated by a Byzantine A.D. 512, Englished by Jolm Goody er A.D. 1655. Edited and first printed A.D. 1933. Oxford University Press (1934). Oxford, p. 357. 13. De materia medica. ibid, book 4. eh. 60. 1.1. 14. De materia medica. ibid, book 4. ch. 60. s. 1. 1. 6. 15. Euporista vel De simplicibus medicinis. ed. M. Wellmann. Pedanii Dioscuridis Anazarbei de materia medica libri quinque. vol. 3.Berlin, 1914 (repr. 1958): book 2, ch. 19. s. 1.1. 5 16. De tv pis liber, ed. C.G. Kohn. Claudii Galeni opera omnia, vol. 7. Leipzig: Knobloch. 1824 (repr. Hildesheim: Olms. 1965): 463-474 book. 7, p. 469. L 18. 17. Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine. 6th edition (1970). McGraw - Hill Book Company. New York etc. pp 1030 - 1034. 18. Iatricorum liber v. ed. A. Olivieri, Aetii Amideni libri medicinales v-viii [Corpus medicorum Graecorum. vol. 8.2. Berlin: Akademie-Verlag. 1950]: 6-119. ch. 80. 1. 7 19. Eclogae medicamentorum. ed. J. Raeder. Oribasii collectionum medicarum reliquae. vol. 4 [Corpus medicorum Graecorum. vol. 6.2.2. Leipzig: Teubner. 1933]: 185-307. b. 45. s. 6.1. 1. 20. De febribus. ed. T. Puschmann. Alexander von Tralles, vol. 1. Vienna: Braumoller. 1878 (repr. Amsterdam: Hakkert. 1963): 291-439. (Cod: 20.743: Med.) 1. 373.4 21. Epitomae medicae libri septem. ed. J.L. Heiberg. Paulus Aegineta. 2 vols. [Corpus medicorum Graecorum, vols. 9.1 & 9.2], Leipzig: book. 2. ch. 19. p. 1 1. 6. 22. De virtutibus herbarum (e cod. Paris, gr. 2502 and Vindob. med. gr. 23. ed. H.-V. Friedrich. Thessalos von Tralles [Meisenheim am Gian: Hain. 1968]: 43-44. 56. 59. b 1. ch. 8, s. t l.L 23. Synopsis ad Eustathium filium, ed. J. Raeder. Oribasii synopsis ad Eustathium et libri ad Eunapium [Corpus medicorum Graecorum. vol. 6.3]. Leipzig: Teubner. 1926 (repr. Amsterdam: Hakkert. 1964). 24. G Penso. Les Plantes Medicinales. Roger Dacosta (Edt) (1986). Paris, p. 101 and 139. 25. Man and Scythe Inn absinthe page: http ://w w w . Manandscvthc.co.uk/absinte.htm 26. Libri ad Eunapium, ibid. 1. 12. 5. 1. 27. Welcome to Bar Absinthe. Find, buy and appreciate great absinthe here. http : /Avww . bar-absinthe .co m/ Washington Academy of Sciences 7 28. De succedaneis liber, ed. C.G. Kuhn. Claudii Galeni opera omnia, vol. 19. Leipzig: Knobloch. 1830 (repr. Hildesheim: Olms. 1965): 721-747. 29. M R. Lee. Plants against malaria. Part 2. Artemisia Annua. Qingshaosu or the SW Wormwood. J. R. Coll. Physicians Edinb 2002. 32:300 30. hi tp :/Av w vv.ifpma . ora/Heal tli/ma la ria/health coartem ma 1 . aspx 31.0. Famin. H Ginsburg. Differential effects of 4 - aminoquinine - containing antimalarial drugs on hemoglobin digestion in plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes. Biochemical Pharmacology (2002). 63 (3): 393 32. A Diamandopoulos. The use of Ancient and Medieval Greek literature for avoiding the «I said it first» research syndrome. Proceedings of the 2nd World Congress '‘Ancient Greece and the Modem World '. Olympia. 12-17 July 2002. University of Patras Press. Patras. 2003. p. 40. (in Greek). 33. P Prioreschi. The idea of progress in Antiquity and in the Middle Ages. Vesalius (2002). VIII. 1.34-45. 34. Seneca. Ad Lucilium epistulae morales. 64. vii. ix. in: Prioreschi P.. ibid. p. 36. Winter 2006 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 9 THE PARADOX OF INTENTIONAL EMERGENT COHERENCE: ORGANIZATION AND DECISION IN A COMPLEX WORLD Robert M. Cutler1 Institute of European and Russian Studies. Carleton University Abstract The work presented here draws upon previous research into the development of a particular type of international organization, the international parliamentary institution (IPI). of which the European Parliament is the best-known example. It generalizes the concepts framing that research to organizations at large, including but not limited to political nation-states. By explicating how that framework is grounded in the theory of complex systems, the present article shows how it is applicable to social systems in general. The tasks facing IPIs seeking to survive and grow, on the one hand, and on the other hand the tasks facing states responding to the international political environment, are in fact similar in cybernetic terms. Since only the resources available to them differ, the organizational and human information¬ processing phenomena that form and constrain state foreign policy decision-making are comparable to those that are expressed in the epigenetic development of an IPI. Since the general framework presented here provides a way to take into account the differences in resources to which states and IPIs have access, it is applicable by extension to any political or social system or organization that continually confronts an external environment that it itself helps to shape through interpretation as well as action. This general framework may therefore be properly applied not just to analyzing the behavior of formal social organizations constmcted by human collectivities for defined political purposes, but also to the analysis of decisions, growth, and development of individual human beings in life itself. “Complexity Science” or “The Complex Sciences”? Complex-science or “complex-scientific” studies, like structuralist studies, are an approach to the creation of knowledge. Consequently, it is more appropriate to speak of “the complex sciences” than of “complexity science.” The former locution makes it clear that the complex sciences are Winter 2006 10 not a delimited set of fields of knowledge to be explored from either a complexity standpoint or a non-complexity standpoint, but rather the manifestation of one perspective on the world and knowledge-creation about the world. In order to underline this distinction, for the purpose of the present article the compound attributive adjective “complexity- science” (as in “complexity-science approaches”) is replaced by “complex-scientific” (thus “complex-scientific approaches”). It is necessary to explicate the distinctive characteristics of the complex sciences in order to ascertain what the limits to knowledge about them are. The best vehicle for that explication is by analogy to the exegesis of Levi-Strauss’s structuralism by Piaget, who shows how different applied structuralisms within various fields of knowledge are conditioned by the sociologies of knowledge constructing these disciplinary fields of study, which in turn vary across time and space, even within the same field of knowledge. The three central notions of Piaget’s exegesis of Levi -Strauss are totality , self-regulation , and transformation . Defining these three categories as the components of a structure, Piaget distinguishes how they manifest and differentiate comparative structuralisms across fields of knowledge from mathematics to anthropology, passing through the natural sciences, life sciences, and social sciences.11 Winch’s application of a Wittgensteinian approach to social science sets Piaget’s notion of structuralism into relation with the epistemology of complex systems. In particular. Winch explains how any social science may construct its epistemology by establishing the categories of structure, norms, and behavior, and using any two of these to study the third.111 Inspection of Piaget’s exegesis of Levi-Strauss reveals “totality” as the principal characteristic of a given structure , “self¬ regulation” as principally characterizing norms (since it is according to norms that such self-regulation occurs), and “transformation” as a characterization principally of behcnior (involving change over time and therefore differential). In other words, structures define what is possible while norms operate within structural constraints so as to generate that which actually manifests in the world. So it is that norms operate upon structure to produce behavior; or, put another way, structure is mediated through norms into behavior. Stated with a still greater degree of generality: Totality is akin to a domain, self-regulation akin to a function, and transformation akin to a range: the laws of self-regulation act upon the totality and result in transformation.1'' Washington Academy of Sciences 11 Complex-scientific approaches to knowledge-creation are the constructive response that goes beyond the critical destructiveness of “post-structuralism. ”v Building blocks of the complex sciences include three fundamental categories that are extensions of the three categories forming the basis for the structuralist epistemology that Piaget extracts from Levi-Strauss. In particular: (l)the complex-scientific extension of the structuralist category of “totality” is coherence , (2) the complex- scientific extension of the structuralist category of “self-regulation” is autopoiesis ,V1 and (3) the complex-scientific extension of the structuralist category of “transformation” is emergence. However, Winch’s epistemology as applied to the structuralist social sciences does not provide the basis for extension to the epistemology of the complex sciences; specifically, in the complex sciences it is not the case that any two fundamental categories (among coherence, autopoiesis, and emergence) can be used to study the third. Rather, autopoiesis mediates coherence and emergence. There are three interrelated approaches to the modern study of complex systems, each focusing on one of the components of a social science as enumerated above according to Winch: (1) how interactions give rise to patterns of behavior , a largely North American approach typified by an emphasis on “complex adaptive systems”; (2) understanding the different ways in which complex systems may be normative/y described , a mostly European approach characteristic of the natural sciences and typified by Prigogine and the approach to thermodynamics; and (3) the process of structural formation of complex systems through pattern formation and evolution, a cybernetics-based and system-theory-oriented approach adopted in both Europe and North America.™ The present article is situated in the tradition of the third of these approaches, which, in Winch’s terms, combines the study of behavior and of norms in order to explain structure. Functionalism and Organizational Development Within this general approach, the present article establishes a framework for evaluating the growth and decline of organizations and other social systems, determining what leads some of them to respond adequately to demands imposed upon them by their environment, and others not. The framework synthesizes two apparently mutually exclusive taxonomies: one concerning how organizations maintain homeostasis in Winter 2006 12 order to survive, the other about how organizations develop and adapt in order to grow.'111 Table 1 summarizes the first taxonomy, which concerns how organizations survive; it emphasizes the creation of organizational structures so as to accomplish functional tasks; it comprises the two principal categories, internal functions and external functions. The order in which any organization accomplishes the internal functions in fact defines an evolutionary sequence: (1) informational activities, (2) normative activities, (3) rule-creating activities, (4) rule-supervisory activities, and (5) operational activities. Only organizations that successfully perform lower-numbered internal functions have the opportunity to move on to the higher-numbered. “Operational activities” are activities undertaken with reference to the physical and institutional environment. They represent the spillover from the full development of internal functions to the deployment of external functions. 1X Internal Functions External Functions 1) Informational activities 2) Normative activities 3) Rule-creating activities 4) Rule-supervisory activities 5) Operational activities 1 ) Interactions with other organizations 2) Adaptation 3) Normative integration 4) Cultural issues Table 1. Internal and External Functions of an Organization. Table 2 summarizes the second taxonomy, which adopts an “epigenetic” approach, concentrating not on established functions (as does the first taxonomy), but rather on the new functions that must develop for effective growth; it addresses the growth of institutions and communities through an almost biological metaphor. This second taxonomy establishes four categories, each of which identifies each category with an analytical task in the study of organizational survival and development. Setting these two taxonomies in relation to one another problematizes the relevant theoretical questions, establishes the necessary constraints on the research design, and suggests how to code information concerning the development of these organizations x Washington Academy of Sciences 13 ERKLARUNG (“Explanation,” its “variables,” and t heir categories) VERSTEHEN (“Understanding”) ,f Variables ” (in “Explan¬ ation”) Independent: Evolution¬ ary level Intervening: Locus of power Dependent: Performance [Interpretation:] Sequence of integration Categories of variables Stage of: - Initiation - Takeoff - Spillover Degree of: - Elitism8 - Internalization3 - Responsiveness to demands and feedback Robustness of:b - Information and commu¬ nication - Motivation - Spheres of competence Nature of:c - Merging units - Emerging unit -Functional statements vs. “real sequences” Table 2. Elements for an Epigenetic Analysis of General Organizational Evolution. “ The present short article does not address these categories; however, operationalizations may be found in Hayward R. Alker, “On Political Capabilities in a Schedule Sense: Measuring Power, Integration, and Development,” pp 307-73 in Mathematical Approaches to Politics, ed. by H R. Alker, K.W. Deutsch. and A.H. Stoetzel (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1973). b See the reformation of Etzionf s categories as explicated in the text. c This column of the Table is more directly pertinent to Etzioni's original concern with international communities, than to state foreign policy making per se. therefore, it is included for completeness but not discussed in the present article. The first taxonomy emphasizes the creation of organizational structures to fulfill and accomplish prescribed “internal” and “external” functions while the second, adopting an epigenetic approach and concentrating on new behaviors called forth by the environment, comprises four principal categories: stages of development, locus of power, performance, and sequences of integration. The innovation and incorporation of procedures for accomplishing “internal functions” represent a response to developmental challenges in the life of the institution. Organizational success in adapting to these tasks therefore represents a passage from one phase to another. Organizations must as a rule first evolve internal functions permitting them to exist stably in relation with their constituent parts. Only then, according to this idealized functional sequence, may they engage pro-actively with the external environment. Therefore the development of internal and external functions, posited by the functional taxonomy, may be heuristically treated as a teleology of potentials for the evolution of any given organization. The functional framework is thus first-order cybernetic, pertaining to the cybernetics of observed systems; the epigenetic is second-order cybernetic, pertaining to the cybernetics of observing systems.M Their Winter 2006 14 synthesis, denoted the “paradox of intentional emergent coherence,” lays stress on autopoiesis and learning. In this presentation, the two taxonomic frameworks are intermediated by necessary constructs that may properly be called one-and-a-half-order-cybernetic. These constructs are akin to the “middle voice” of verbs in classical Greek, where the subject acts on or for itself, halfway between (passive) first-order-cybernetic and the (active) second-order-cybernetic frameworks. Indeed, insofar as constructivism in the social sciences dissolves the distinction between norms and structures, treating them equally as merely different ways of regarding institutions, it represents a bridge to autopoiesis as the mediating term between coherence and emergence. This is the process that fundamentally characterizes the Paradox of Intentional Emergent Coherence.™ David Easton’s application of systems theory to the study of politics distinguished among the elite, regime, and community sectors of the political system.™1 What the elite is, is self-evident.™ The “regime sector” comprises those institutions of the political system through which governance is executed. The community sector is basically everything else. David Apter explicitly reintroduced the notion of qualitative communication among these sectors. He drew particular attention to the flow of “information” from the community to the regime and from the regime to the elite, and of “coercion” in the reverse direction. His mature theoretical work is inspired more by Deutsch’s than by Almond’s adaptation of Easton’s systems approach.™ Karl Deutsch replaced Easton’s “less precise concepts of demands and supports” with “the concept of message units or informative bits.”™1 More important, he introduced the crucial distinction between primary and secondary feedback in the attempt to grasp what “consciousness” and “learning” might mean where political systems were concerned. His overall goal was to explicate such philosophic categories as “choice,” “will,” and “autonomy” in information processing terms. Following Deutsch’s definition of “information” as a “patterned relationship between events,” Apter retuned to the emphasis placed by Max Weber’s American student Talcott Parsons on action , “a more narrow term that includes choice and will,” as opposed to behavior , which “may include the mechanistic response characteristic of lower animals.”™11 Work by Karl Deutsch helps to render Etzioni’s epigenetic framework operationally second-order cybernetic. According to Deutsch, foreign policy learning may be cognitively manifested either through the transformation of goals held at the outset into goals not previously conceived, or through the choice of pre-existing alternative goals over Washington Academy of Sciences 15 other goals originally held. His project in his classic Nerves of Government was, among other things, to translate the categories of classical European philosophy (before the latter was depsychologized by Bertrand Russell and his continuators) into cybernetic language™11 However, the limitations of the conceptual apparatus available to social science at the time he wrote leave him often a prisoner of a functionalist and homeostatic framework. In the later sections of the book where he reintroduces the category of will and other volitional concepts, he points explicitly towards the key second-order cybernetic principle of autopoiesis. Indeed, Deutsch’s translation of “faith” and “grace” into cybernetic language are remarkable attempts to overcome the limitations of first- order cybernetics. Deutsch’s cybernetic treatment of categories of classical European philosophy goes some distance, though not all the way, towards infiltrating an autopoietic (second-order cybernetic) aspect into the first- order cybernetic framework that he inherited from the structural- functionalist application of general systems theory within political science. In this way Deutsch partly infiltrated an autopoietic aspect into the first- order cybernetic framework that he inherited from general systems theory. Epigenesis and Organizational Autopoiesis Etzioni’s epigenetic “performance” categories were (1) communication, (2) information, and (3) control. However, these categories are still somewhat limited by the dynamics of first-order cybernetics. It is therefore necessary somewhat to reconceptualize them. One additional well-known mainstream political-science work, the seminal work on the foreign-policy decision-making approach from the early 1960s, completes the integration of Etzioni and Deutsch into a fully second-order cybernetic outlook. X1X It not only helps to correct Etzioni’s taxonomic triad of performance variables, but also supplies a framework in which certain categories of Deutsch specify and operationalize that performance triad of Etzioni. That work enumerated three “clusters of variables” (or sets of phenomena), each of which addresses some facet of how people making decisions in organizations operate. These clusters are (1) communication and information, (2) motivation, and (3) spheres of competence. Together they motivate the re-specifications of Etzioni’s performance categories. The relation to Etzioni’s triad of performance variables is as follows. The communication and information cluster is about communication in organizations, and also Winter 2006 16 about the organization of communications; it subsumes two of Etzioni’s original categories. The motivation cluster is about goals in organizations and is entirely absent in Etzioni. Deutsch uses it along with other volitional concepts. The cybernetic term for autonomy of motive is autopoiesis , and this concept is the lever with which to open the overall problematique to second-order cybernetic considerations. The spheres of competence cluster is about authority in organizations; it is a less mechanistic, more second-order cybernetic expression of Etzioni’ s category of “ control.” The three “stages of development” inherent in the epigenetic framework (initiation, takeoff, and spillover) may be considered as not “stages” per se fully describing a continuum of development, but rather phases in the transition of an organization from one category to another in this typology. With this expanded theoretical content, it produces a hierarchy for classifying organizational development (see Table 3) that serves also as a template for mapping foreign policy decisions.xx Still closer inspection of the synthesis of the functional and epigenetic taxonomies discovers the influences upon an organization’s achievement or failure to move from one rung of the developmental ladder to another. These influences are expressed in particular by the setting into mutual relation of the “locus of power” and “performance” categories of the epigenetic framework on the one hand with, on the other hand, the organization’s “external functions” as specified in the functionalist framework. External functions have two aspects: normative and behavioral. The key to examining performance is an assessment of the “behavioral aspects.” The functionalist framework defines this as the organization’s adaptation and its interactions with other organizations. (“Organizations” may be construed in the sociological sense to include non-bureaucratic structures as well as structures in the environment.) Adaptation occurs (or fails to occur) with respect to the organization’s institutional environment, and in the second instance, with respect to the demands (both internal and external) on the nascent organization. Washington Academy of Sciences 17 (Implem en tat ion) Phase 3 Competence Operational activities Spillover ( Preparation for implementation) Phase 2 Motivation R u 1 e- s upend s ory activities Takeoff (2nd moment) Rule-creating activities Takeoff (1st moment) ( Processing of information ) Phase 1 . . . Communication Normative activities Initiation (2nd moment) and information Informational activities Initiation (1st moment) (Collection of information) Phase 0 (Phase of for¬ eign policy deci¬ sion making ) Functional requisite of organizational devel¬ opment (see Table 1) Evolutionary phase of organization Epigenetic moment in organizational devel¬ opment (see Table 2) Table 3. Concordance between Functional Requisites and Epigenetic Moments in Organizational Development, and also by extension to Phase of State Foreign Policy’ Decision Making. (Read this Table from bottom to top.) There is a one-to-one correspondence between the analytical subcategories of these interactions with other organizations, under the functionalist framework, and the criteria of performance under the epigenetic framework. To be exact, there are under the functionalist framework three elements of “interactions with other organizations” (threat systems, hierarchies, and goal definition and realization), and under the epigenetic framework there are likewise three performance criteria. Table 4 sets these into a one-to-one correspondence, establishes the synthesis and, through the Deutsch-Etzioni transformation, it operationalizes the first-order-cybernetic categories necessarily in a second-order-cybernetic manner Winter 2006 18 EPIGENETIC “LOCUS OF POWER ” [ Response to demands/feedback = Performance ] Performance variables operational¬ ized as “capacities ” Hierarchies Goal definition and realization Threat systems Primacy capacity Secondary capacity' 1) Fundamental restructuring 2) Inner rearrange¬ ment 1 ) Steering capacity 2) Depth of memory 1 ) Power 2) Intake channels Functional behavior characteristic of the performance variable Communication and information Motivation Spheres of competence [ Interactions with other organizations ] FUNCTIONAL “EXTERNAL BEHAVIOR” Table 4. How Deutschian “Capacities” Operationalize Performance V ariables from the Functional and Epigenetic Taxonomies, Transforming the First-Order Cybernetic into the Second-Order-Cybernetic. The introduction these second-order cybernetic correctives to Etzioni’s original epigenetic taxonomy of performance variables transforms the functionalist framework, which treats organizations homeostatically, into an epigenetic cycle of organic development. Deutsch’s remarks on obstacles to learning in cybernetic systems are directly to this point. Specifically, he discusses “losses,” any of which can prevent effective learning. Since the inverse of such a loss is a capacity, he in fact enumerates six capacities that promote learning. It turns out that a different pair of these six capacities is related to each of the functionally defined external behaviors (threat systems, hierarchies, and goal definition and realization). Thus the three pairs of capacities are mutually exclusive; and collectively, they exhaust the set of six, as follows: Washington Academy of Sciences 19 1. Hierarchies are inhibited primarily by ‘loss of capacity for fundamental restructuring” and secondarily by “loss of depth of memory ” Cognitive hierarchies are not internalized and organizational hierarchies are not imprinted in the absence of information and communication. These requisite capacities therefore depend most closely upon the information communication performance variable, which is in turn most characteristic of the initiation phase of epigenetic development. 2. Goal definition and realization are inhibited primarily by “loss of steering capacity” and secondarily by “loss of capacity for inner rearrangement.” Goals are not defined or realized in the absence of motivation. The requisite capacities therefore depend most closely upon the motivation performance variable, which is in turn most characteristic of the takeoff phase of epigenetic development. 3. Threat systems are inhibited by “loss of power” and secondarily by “loss of intake channels.” Threat systems are at best ineffective, and at worst nonexistent, in the absence of competence. The requisite capacities depend most closely upon the competence performance variable, which is in turn most characteristic of the spillover phase of epigenetic development. Theoretical structures of second-order cybernetics, outlined above, establish links between members of this conceptual triplet and the one immediately preceding. However, it would be inconsiderate to adduce supernumerary abstractions to such a demonstration, particularly in the presence of editorial limits on the length of this article. Therefore Table 5 summarizes those connections in apothegms unifying them with the fundamental analytical issues in the complex sciences, enumerated at the outset of the chapter. Winter 2006 20 APPOSITE APOTHEGM (Second-order cybernetic) perform¬ ance criterion and corresponding phase of epigenetic evolution Complex' -scientific category corresponding to tire functionally defined behavior (Consolidated explication) Epigenetic phase Performance criterion Manifesting complex- scientific behavior j Functional j behavior During the phase of ini¬ tiation , information and communications emerge as [and manifest as cog¬ nitive and organizational] hierarchies. Initiation Information and communications Emergence ! Hierarchies During the phase of take¬ off \ motivation changes and stabilizes [and mani¬ fests as and sustains] goal definition and realization. Takeoff Motivation Autopoiesis (for sustainability) ! Goal definition and realization During the phase of spill¬ over, competence self- organizes [and manifests and coheres as) threat systems. Spillover Competence (Self-organized) Coherence ! Threat systems ; (for response I to threat) Table 5. Concordance between Categories for Assessing Institutional Development of International Organizations and Foreign -Policy Decision Making on the One Hand, and, on the Other Hand, Fundamental Issues in the Complex Sciences Enumerated at the Outset of This Article, The Paradox of Intentional Emergent Coherence The paradox of intentional emergent coherence is a condensation and a transformation of this first order cybernetic system into a second order cybernetic system. It is explicitly second-order-cybernetic and founded in the theory of complex systems. Consequently it operationalizes autopoiesis in particular better than any recitation of functional mechanisms. For an organization, autopoiesis is the crucial attribute marking the successful performance of functional tasks associated with the developmental stage of take-off. It signifies the capacity proactively to undertake relations with other organizations, as opposed to remaining only a coordinating center for actions of its own component organizational elements. It is the foundation of autonomous motive. Washington Academy of Sciences 21 Figure 1. A Functionalist General-systems Inventory of Influences on State Foreign Policy Behavior. Figure 2. The Paradox of Intentional Emergent Coherence: A Cyclical Developmental Framework for Organizations and Social Systems, Unifying the Functional and Epigenetic Approaches. Figure 1 portrays a standard functionalist general-systems flowchart of influences on the foreign-policy behavior of a state. Inspection will show that all “variables” (boxes with Roman numerals) and “causes” (labeled arrows) in Figure 1 appear also in Figure 2, albeit some in abbreviated form. [I], [II], and [III] represent the demands upon the political system and supports to it and their reciprocal intermediation by (A-l), (A-2), and (B-l). Those three flows, together with (B-2) are seen in Figure 2 to represent the flow from [I] to [III], interpreted as transition from the phase of Emergence to that of Coherence, in turn represented in Table 3 as progression from Phase 0 to Phase 1. The movement from [III] to [V] in Figure 1 is the beginning of processing of information on the new i Winter 2006 22 situation after it has been collected; “Conversion” is the structural- functional category identifying this process, and it is there intermediated by the flows (C), (D), and (E). In Figure 2, this represents the transition from Coherence to Crisis, as the new challenge begins coming to a head; and in Table 3, it is the progression from Phase 1 to Phase 2, where the crucial issue of motivation comes to the fore, especially along with associated second-order-cybernetic concerns with autopoiesis and goal definition. The critical elaboration of a response (“Decision and Implementation”) is portrayed schematically in Figure 1 by the move from [V] to [VI] via (F), interpreted in Figure 2 as the resolution of the Crisis by Performance (either good or bad, and implemented either poorly or efficiently), and captured in Table 3 as the movement from Phase 2 to Phase 3. Finally, in Figure 1 for the case of state foreign-policy decision¬ making, there is feedback to the international and domestic political environments, i.e. from [VI] to [I] and [II], via the flows (G-l) and (G-2). These are also represented in Figure 2; for Table 3, it is the “relapse” from Phase 3 to Phase 0, awaiting a new situation of challenge to arise. The progressive transformation of Figure 1 into Figure 2 demonstrates that the functionalist schema hides an organic cycle of epigenetic development. Indeed, forsaking the functionalist for the epigenetic standpoint in fact renders the schema more parsimonious with no sacrifice of analytical rigor; the analytical rigor is enhanced, as two conceptual consolidations transform the functionalist, first-order- cybemetic schema in Figure 1, so as to reveal its epigenetic, second-order- cybemetic essence in Figure 2. First: The epigenetic approach discovers that the endogenous demands and supports evolve with each metamorphic stage through which an organization passes; therefore, these demands and supports may be treated together as a single expression of the developmental stage that it has reached. Second: Conversion, decision, and implementation together constitute the response to the epigenetic challenge at hand; therefore, these may be collapsed to single category representing the organization’s performance-response to outgrow that developmental stage answer the self-transformative challenge to enter the next.™ Conclusion The basis for the two correspondences just enumerated is that the innovation and incorporation of procedures for the various kinds of Washington Academy of Sciences 23 activities specified under “internal functions,” represent a response to a developmental challenge. Successful adaptation therefore represents the passage from one metamorphic stage to another, in the epigenetic course that inheres in the organization, whether it is a state or an international organization or any other social system. The assertion that initiation, takeoff, and spillover are not point discontinuities between different phases but rather are themselves transition phases in the life of the organization is validated by their specification as being composed of developmental functional tasks. The transformation of Figure 1 into Figure 2 discovers the ladder of epigenetic development concealed by the functionalist cycle and embedded in it. This ladder indeed conditions the very parameters of that functional cycle. The transformation of the functionalist into the epigenetic framework demonstrates the intrinsic unity of the two approaches. It maps unambiguously the “internal functions” and the “stages of epigenetic development” onto a common domain. The complete ladder of institutional development is a hierarchy representing a typology of the nature of the emerging units (a category under the “sequences of integration” category of the epigenetic framework in Table 2). This correspondence integrates the principal category of the epigenetic framework with the principal taxonomy of the functional framework. The Paradox of Intentional Emergent Coherence unfolds as a result. Thus Table 5 sustains and illustrates, as was asserted in the beginning, that in the complex-scientific approach, autopoiesis intermediates emergence with coherence; and from that, the rest of this theoretical construct is generated and supported. REFERENCES i. Senior Research Fellow. Institute of European and Russian Studies. Carleton University. Postal address: Station H. Box 518. Montreal. Quebec H3G 2L5. Canada. Email address ; website . Member of the Washington Evolutionary Systems Society. A draft of this article was presented to the Washington Academy Conference CapSci2006. The author's first oral presentation of these ideas was to two interdisciplinary conferences sponsored by the New England Complex Systems Institute in Boston in October 1998 and March 1999. Winter 2006 24 ii. Jean Piaget. Le structuralisme (Paris: Press universitaires de France. 1968); for a summary, see Jean Piaget. Epistemologie des sciences de I 'homme (Paris: Gallimard. 1970). pp. 278-86. iii. Peter Winch. The Idea of a Social Science and Its Relation to Philosophy (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. 1958); 2nd ed. (London: Routledge. 1990). For a commentary comparing the arguments in the two editions, see Philip Pettit "Winch's Double-edged Idea of a Social Science." History of the Human Sciences 13. no. 1 (February 2000): 63-77. iv. Totality is thus as like a mathematical Object: self-regulation, an Operation; and transformation, a Relation. See Arthur F. Bentley. "Sociology and Mathematics" [first published in 1931]. pp. 53-100. in Bentley. Inquiry into Inquiries: Essays in Social Theorw ed. with Introd. bv Sidney Ratner (Boston. Mass.: Beacon Press. 1954). at 56- 59. v. Paul Cilliers. Complexity’ and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems (London: Routledge. 1998). vi. Autopoiesis is the capacity’ of complex systems, and especially complex adaptive systems, to set their own goals through progressive interaction with their environment and through learning in response to this. John Holland. Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity (New York: Perseus Books. 1996); Niklas Lulnnan Soziale Svsteme: Grundriss einer allgemeine Theorie (Frankfurt: Suhrkamp. 1984). translated as Niklas Luhmann. Social Systems (Writing Science ). trans. John Bednarz and Dirk Baecker (Stanford. Calif.: Stanford University’ Press. 1995). vii. Based on [Yaneer Bar-Yam]. "NECSI Guide: About Complex Systems,” . accessed 10 October 2006. viii. Respectively: The United Nations System: International Bibliography, ed. by Klaus Hiifner and Jens Naumann (Munich: Verlag Dokumentation. 1976-present); and Amitai Etzioni. "The Epigenesis of Political Communities at the International Level,” American Journal of Sociology. 68. no. 4 (December 1963): 407-21. reprinted at pp. 346-58 in International Politics and Foreign Policy, ed. by James N. Rosenau. rev. ed.. (New York: Free Press. 1969). The Hufner-Nauman taxonomy is based in the "structural-functionalist" school of political analysis, which emphasizes "capabilities" of a different nature than discussed here, and of which the locus c/assicus is Gabriel A. Almond and G. Bingham Poyvell. Jr., Comparative Politics: A De\’elopmental Approach (Boston: Little. Broyvn. 1966). drayving heavily but implicitly on the magnum opus of Almond's teacher Talcott Parsons. The Social System (Neyv York: Free Press. 1951). which was unimaginably influential in its time. Parsons in turn was the chief American exegete of the great German sociologist Max Weber, yvhose attention to historical detail he however sacrificed for the gain of abstract conceptualization at the grandest level of theory . The resulting deficiencies (and Washington Academy of Sciences 25 they continue still today to affect organizational and foreign-policy analysis by many mainstream North American political scientists) are trenchantly laid out by the pioneering American sociologist William Foote Whyte. “Parsonian Theory Applied to Organizations,’' pp. 250-267 in The Social Theories of Talcott Parsons: A Critical View, ed. by Max Black (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. 1961). The issues that Etzioni outlines are not far from a the recent attempt in Security Communities . ed. by Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1998), to revive the approach by Karl W. Deutsch et al. , Political Community and the North Atlantic Area (Princeton. N.J.: Princeton University Press. 1957). to the study of security communities. However. Etzioni' s framework better houses recent advances in social network analysis, including the important qualitative differences now rigorously demonstrated between triads and the dyadic relationships emphasized by methodological-individualist approaches: see. e.g .. Ronald L. Breiger. Explorations in Structural Analysis: Dual and Multiple Networks of Social Structure (New York: Garland Press. 1991). and Stanley Wassennan and Katherine Faust. Social Network Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1994): compare Bam Buzan and Ole Waever. Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2003). At the same time, social network analysis conserves the systems-theory approach underlying Deutsch' s perspective and easily accommodates the cybernetic aspects of complex systems, as explained among others by Paul A. Stokes. “Socio-Cybemetics and the Project of Scientificization of Sociology." pp. 3 1 1-334 in Self-Steering and Cognition in Complex Systems: Towards a New Cybernetics . ed. by Francis Heylighen. Eric Rosseel. and Frank Demeyene (New York: Gordon and Breach. 1990). ix. For a more elaborate argument of some of these points, see Cutler, ‘The Emergence of International Parliamentary Institutions" (fn 2). x. For an example of how this synthesis generates a philosophically grounded and empirically applicable coding methodology for organizational development, see Robert Cutler and Alexander von Lingen. “The European Parliament and European Security and Defence Policy," European Security 12. no. 2 (June 2003): 1-20. also at . xi. As Felix Gever notes in “The Challenge of Sociocybemetics,” Kvbernetes , 24. no. 4 (1995): 5-32. another main difference as set out by Heinz von Forster was that “second- cybernetics explicitly includes the observer(s) in the systems to be studied [and] generally deals with living systems." xii. Compare Alicia Juarrero. Dynamics in Action: Intentional Behavior as a Complex System (Cambridge: MIT Press. 1999). pp. 109-25 passim. xiii. David Easton. The Political System (New York: Knopf. 1953). and several subsequent monographs on the same time. 26 xiv. Actually, elite studies have long been an identified topic within the comparative politics subdiscipline of political science, complete with its own problematization and definition of different elites. What an elite is. is nevertheless fairly clear in an ordinary- language way. w hereas that is not necessarily the case for the concept of ' regime.” xv. David E. Apter. Choice and the Politics of Allocation (New Haven. Conn.: Yale University Press. 1971). xvi. Law rence C. Mayer. Comparative Political Inquin' (Homew ood. Ill.: Dorsev. 1972) . p. 136. xvii. Ibid., p. 127. xviii. Kari W. Deutsch. The Nerves of Government: Models of Political Communication and Control (New York: Free Press of Glencoe. 1963). pp. 96. 210. 222. The transformation of goals held at the outset into goals not previously conceived is rare and cannot be programmed. Haas reserv es the term “learning*' for goal transformation, as distinct from “adaptation." See Ernst B. Haas. “Collective Learning: Some Theoretical Speculations." in Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy \ pp. 62-99. esp. pp. 72-97 . Compare: James N. Rosenau. “Foreign Policy as Adaptive Behavior: Some Preliminary Notes for a Theoretical Model.*' Comparative Politics 2. no. 3 (April 1970): 365-387. Rosenau. The Study of Political Adaptation: Essays on the Analysis of World Politics (London: Frances Pinter. 1981); Steve Smith. Foreign Policy’ Adaptation (Famborough. Gower. 1981): Smith. “Rosenau* s Adaptive Behaviour Approach." Review of International Studies 7. no. 2 (1981) pp. 107-26. xix. Richard W. Snyder. H.W. Bruck. and Burton Sapin. “Decision-making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics." pp. 106-170 in Foreign Policy Decision Making: An Approach to the Study of International Politics, ed. by Snyder. Bruck. and Sapin (New York: Free Press of Glencoe. 1962). xx. The italicized entries in the alternate cells in the left-hand column of Table 3 are taken from Robert Axelrod. “Schema Theory: An Information Processing Model of Perception and Cognition.” American Political Science Review 67. no. 4 (December 1973) : 1248-1266: compare Alessandro Bruschi. “Informazione e processi decisionali nel sistema politica." pp. 165-213 in Ministero degli affari esteri. Istituto diplomatico. Relazioni internazaionali: metodi e tecniche di analisi (Florence: Centro Studi e ricerche di politica comparata. 1973); also the periodization of decision-making in domestic affairs by Peter H. Solomon. Soviet Criminologists and Criminal Policy: Specialists in Policy-Making (New York: Columbia University Press. 1978). p. 1 14. Fig. 1. xxi. The successful implementation of a good decision strengthens these supports and develops new capabilities. A poor decision w eakens supports, and a poor implementation (even of a good decision) stunts the development of new capabilities. Successes and failures are not isolated events but experiences that condition the whole of future Washington Academy of Sciences 27 evolution. For a discussion of this notion in relation to the development of domestic political systems, see Leonard Binder et a /., Crises and Sequences in Political Development (Princeton. N. J. : Princeton University Press. 1971); and Crises of Political Development in Europe and the United States, ed. by Raymond Grew (Princeton. N.J.; Princeton University Press. 1978). Winter 2006 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences NATURE VERSUS NURTURE IN EVOLUTION, AND EMERGENCES OF DESIGNS IN GENETICS, THE IMMUNE SYSTEM AND THE BRAIN 29 Roulette William Smith Institute for Postgraduate Interdisciplinary Studies Palo Alto, CA Abstract Even though much remains to be explicated, it generally is agreed that DNA provides a parsimonious basis for evolution associated with speciation. differentiation, development, immunity, cognition and behavior, aging, and dying and death. Until published reports of two human genome projects (HGPs) in mid-Feb ruarv 2001. it had not been appreciated that proteomic components of the human genome account for approximately 2% of the human genome (-30.000 genes) and at most 25% of the genome comprise the proteome (i.e.. the protein¬ encoding portion of the genome) and its regulatory elements. Based on studies of “slow viruses” and their roles in “dementia" in both the brain and the immune sy stem. Smith hypothesized that DNA must be the repository of long-term memories in living systems (LTM) - and especially in the brain - with broad implications for evolution (1979). Contemporaneously. Tonegawa demonstrated rearrangements in DNA account for immunoglobulin specificity (1978; Sakano et al. . 1979). Taken together, these findings support three interdependent evolutionary7 schemas in humans and other higher animals with bony crania (Smith. 2006a; Smith. 2006b). One evolutionary scheme is associated with Daryvinian proteomic (i.e., genetic and epigenetic) evolution. A second interdependent evolutionary pathway is associated with 7/7 utero transmission of immunoglobulins and other evolutionary information (Vemy and Kelly, 1981/1983). and breastfeeding - especially in humans. The third pathway is associated with imitation in behavior associated with mirror neurons (Arbib et al., 2000; Rizzolatti and Craighero. 2004; Iacoboni et al., 2005) and other mechanisms involving the transmission of information to and within the brain - the latter generally comprising DNA changes in non-proteomic portions of the genome. This report explores emergences in spontaneous, “natural" and aberrant designs and heuristics among the three interdependent evolutionary7 subsystems and their associated transmission mechanisms. Emergent designs associated with proteomic regions of the genome largely represent designs in “nature," whereas emergent designs associated with the remaining interdependent evolutionary7 schemas often reflect consequences of designs associated with “nurturance." Winter 2006 30 Background and Introduction On Design - ‘ Caveats Emptor ' and Limiting the Scope of this Report The central theme of this symposium - “emergences in designs” - conjures a variety of meanings and opportunities. This report focuses on four (of eight) definitions of design taken from the Merri am -Webster Online Dictionary (www.m-w.com). These definitions are “... 4) a preliminary sketch or outline showing the main features of something to be executed : ; 5 a) an underlying scheme that governs functioning, developing, or unfolding : PATTERN, MOTIF ; 5 b) a plan or protocol for carrying out or accomplishing something (as a scientific experiment); also : the process of preparing this; 6) the arrangement of elements or details in a product or work of art; and, 7) a decorative pattern ...” Because of space limitations, this report focuses solely on those definitions of design which are nouns. A goal is to disambiguate nature and nurture in evolution, and elucidate emergences in designs associated with three “emergent” interdependent evolutionary schemas to be described momentarily. On Evolution An Introduction to a Post-Darwinian Model of Evolution Charles Darwin’s theories of evolution and speciation (1859), while widely accepted by life scientists and most scholars, have been challenged by other scholars who praise Jean-Baptiste Lamarck (1819/1984) on adaptation, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1959) on phenomenology and ‘inward’ reflection, and others ( e.g ., Huxley, 1941). Reported findings in mid-February 2001 from two human genome projects (HGPs), when coupled with experimental findings and speculations about DNA dynamics (McClintock, 1950; Tonegawa et al. , 1978; Sakano et al ., 1979; Smith, 1979; Zou and Buck, 2006) now support a novel post- Darwinian tripartite model of evolution. The tripartite model derives from the HGPs’ revelation that, according to its most generous interpretation, at most 25% of the human genome accounts for the proteome, with as much as 75% or more of non- proteomic regions of the human genome remaining to be explicated (see February 2001 issues of Nature [Volume 409, 15 February 2001] and Science [Volume 291 (5507), 16 February 2001]). Non-proteomic regions of the genome sometimes are referred to as “junk” DNA. Washington Academy of Sciences 31 Although notions of proteomic and non-proteomic regions of a genome were unknown in 1979, Smith (1979) anticipated that changes in DNA (i.e., LTM) would take place in the non-contiguous and non- proteomic regions in the brain and immune system, that endogenous retrovirus-like elements may play roles in depositing information in non- proteomic regions of the genome, and that Francis Crick’s “central dogma” was grossly deficient because of overwhelming evidence of an inverse information pathway (cf. Crick, 1958; Crick et a /., 1961; Crick, 1970; Smith, 1979; Smith 2006a; Smith, 2006b). The subsequent design and invention of proXomc-ehcixomc-iomc-phoionic molecular calculating (preliophic moleculating) devices and processes demonstrated the potential for inverse molecular information pathways (Smith and Shadel, 2003 patents pending). It then was proposed that trinucleotide repeat (TNR) diseases provide further support for inverse molecular information pathways and junctions between proteomic and non-proteomic regions of genomes (Smith, 2003; cf. Cleary and Pearson, 2003). Clues to the need for a tripartite model of evolution derive from DNA rearrangements associated with immunoglobulin production and DNA changes in non-proteomic regions of the brain - neither of which are transmitted to the germ-line. Previously, interpretations of DNA rearrangements associated with immunoglobulin specificity were interpreted as evidence for rejecting the “one gene - one protein” dogma. Scholars had overlooked that those gene rearrangements were not being passed along to germ-line tissue. A need for a second (non-Darwinian) interdependent evolutionary schema was evident upon reflection on passive immunity associated with in utero transmission of immunoglobulins and breastfeeding, the effects of addictive drugs on fetuses during pregnancy and the newborn, and possible transfers of soulful information in utero (Verny and Kelly, 1981/1983). A need for a third evolutionary pathway became evident because changes in DNA in the brain are unlikely to be accompanied by cell division (i.e., a significant evolutionary event was to retain the ability to change DNA without cell division, especially for cells constrained by a bony cranium), because of the complexity of neural networks fostering the need for efficient intracellular communication through axons and dendrites, because DNA changes in brains, may represent a priori events with changes in axons- dendrites representing a posteriori consequences of those DNA changes, and because DNA changes in the brain are not transmitted to the germ¬ line. In short, a tripartite system of evolution became essential because of separate transmission mechanisms associated with genetic reproduction Winter 2006 32 associated with the germ-line, passive immune transfers in utero , and DNA changes in the brain. Moreover, transmission mechanisms in the brain may invoke mirror neuron systems (Arbib el cil, 2000; Rizzolatti and Craighero, 2004; Iacoboni el a/., 2005; Blakeslee, 2006) for acquiring information by imitation and mimicry (cf. Ekman, 1973; Ekman and Friesen, 1975; Ekman, 2003). Evidence of “psychoviruses” (Smith, 1987; Smith, 1988) and life-long consequences of traumatic events also support infectious cognitive snippets leading to DNA changes (Smith, 2006a; Smith, 2006b). Thus, transmissions of evolutionary information associated with changes in DNA (in humans) may involve: a) sexual reproduction; b) in utero transfers and breastfeeding; and c) imitation, mimicry, and trauma and psychoviruses. Based on considerable theoretical, experimental and clinical evidence, DNA changes in the brain probably involve changes from adenine*thymine-rich regions to guanine*cytosine-richer regions in genomes in selected neurons. Rates of changes should differ, say, for the forebrain (i.e., associated with cognition) and cerebellum ( i.e associated with acquired sensory-motor responses). One crude measure of nurturance is the ratio of guanine* cytosine base-pairs :: adenine*thymine base-pairs in selected regions (Smith, 2003b; hereafter designated G*C :: A*T). We also introduce the term sytitropy to refer to mathematical, chemical and physical representations of increased ordering and organization in information. Intriguing consequences of the tripartite model of evolution are its predictions of significant roles for nurturance, and the organization and ordering of information. Both G*C :: A*T ratios and syntropy have important implications for emergences in designs. Moreover, whereas G*C :: A*T ratios represent crude quantitative measures of nurtures, for DNA in the brain, (G*C :: A*T)changing ltm / (G*C :: A*T)baseiine are crude measures of ‘syntropy’ - with (G*C :: A*T)baseiine being determined for tissue not undergoing changes in DNA ( e.g ., DNA from a hair follicle). Clearly, if (G*C :: A*T)baSeiine is chosen as a crude measure of nature, then (G*C :: A*T)changing LTM / (G*C :: A*T)baseiine also is an expression of the vast importance of nurture relative to nature. These crude measures of nature, nurture and syntropy also represent crude measures of designs. [Increases in G*C :: A*T are indicators of increased avidity in chemical bonding] Washington Academy of Sciences 33 Nature versus Nurture in Emergences in Designs Because of ongoing speculations regarding possible intelligent designs,’ this report now has an opportunity to both debunk intelligent design arguments while clarifying how designs may emerge (or arise spontaneously or aberrantly) in living and non-living systems. In the context of the tripartite model of evolution, discussions of emergences in designs also provide unique opportunities to highlight sciences of the 'real’ and ‘artificial,’ as well as evolution in designs. Finally, a focus on abnormal, aberrant, disordered and dysfunctional designs (cf. Smith, 1979) can provide rich opportunities to parlay “Murphy’s Law” into a theory of “debugging” design, disorder, and disease (Smith, 1979). Equally important, an emphasis on design provides opportunities for the arts to inform the sciences and engineering ( e.g ., see “help for the unknowingly needy and worried well” at the end of the Glossary), and vice versa. Debunking ‘ Intelligent ’ Design If there are any take-home lessons from the tripartite model of evolution, they are that the three interdependent evolutionary systems are co-evolving from fundamentally distinct initial “designs” - even though those systems are parsimonious insofar as DNA is the thread underlying all evolution. The Darwinian model of evolution works well for random mutations, selections and survival of, say, the most ‘fit.’ It even can account for symbiosis and Archaebacteria being precursors of mitochondria, or hydra representing an assemblage of cells. Darwinian evolution is less successful in accounting for consciousness, nurturance, spirituality, elder wisdom or other elements of the transpersonal. Each of these evolutionary developments represents “designs” according to definitions cited earlier, though there are no underlying elements of intelligence - nor are there any reasons to invoke intelligence. Indeed, some “designs” may be extraordinarily “beautiful,” “exquisite,” and “elegant” - as in the structure and function of countercurrent mechanisms in kidneys and oceans. Other designs may represent “kludges” (e.g., in the liver and brain) or even the unintelligent (e.g., in the interaction between human female ovaries and the associated fimbrae). Moreover, the evolutionary emergence of the umbilicus and bony cranium may have been central to the tripartite model, whereas in Winter 2006 34 other animals (or plants) entirely different evolutionary schemas may be necessary. Perhaps most important, the evolution of gods and godliness may recapitulate the evolution of evolution, which, in turn, may recapitulate the dispersion of matter and information secondary to a presumptive 'big bang.’ Stated differently, if there is intelligence, it certainly changes and differs throughout evolution! Emergences in Designs Associated with Nature As noted, the proteome comprises less than 2% of the human genome, or, being generous, at most 25% if allowances are made for unknown or uncertain regulatory processes. That said, evolutionary and developmental biologists (/.£., the “evo-devo” movement) have characterized a variety of "designs” in genes, structures and functions which are parsimonious across species and over time. Indeed, attendees at the Washington Evolutionary Systems Society Symposium (March 25-26, 2006) were treated to a marvelous plenary presentation by Francis Collins (Director of the National Human Genome Research Institute) in which he described the use of haplotype mapping (HapMap) and HGP technologies to identify a gene site implicated in progeria, a premature aging disease caused by a “ de novo” gene mutation (Collins, 2006). Table 1 (see the end of the article) represents an attempt to schematize and systematize some of those and other "designs” associated with nature, though without unduly focusing on specific genes, structures or functions. That said, it is instructive to contrast humans to chimpanzees. One finds greater than 95% homology between their proteomes, yet all will agree to their remarkable differences. Homologies between human and chimpanzee proteomes and genomes also underscore their extraordinary "designs.” Both species retain similar and analogous: physical, biological, and physiological characteristics; sensory and perceptual features; asymmetries and symmetries; codes and redundancies; etc. Differences between humans and chimpanzees probably are represented in the structure, codes, and values of information represented in non-proteomic regions of their genomes. This could represent as much as 98% of the human and/or chimp genomes, with the 95+% homology comprising approximately 2% of their genomes. Table 1 also provides a paradigm for conceptualizing emergences in designs, and especially in living systems. "'Man-made’ / artificial” Washington Academy of Sciences 35 constructs reveal opportunities for inventions and professional responses, whereas “abnormal, aberrant, disordered, and dysfunctional” possibilities point to diseases, outliers, and other anomalous situations. The term “aberrant” specifically is chosen to minimize stereotyping and unnecessary (or inappropriate) value judgments. Its earliest use is in our research involves individuals whose commonsense differs fundamentally from others’ commonsense, though with those individuals’ commonsense generally serving their needs (Smith, 1987; Smith, 1988). Emergences in Designs Associated with Nurture / Nurturance Possibly the most significant contribution of the tripartite model of evolution is that it moves discussions of evolution beyond phenotypes and speciation. According to the DNA change hypotheses in the immune system and the brain, evolution exists within individuals and their species - and especially in humans. Passive immunity was cited because of its elegance when dealing with novel pathogens for highly mobile populations. Indeed, perhaps the greatest tragedy of the 20th century has been the failure to recognize that the AIDS pandemic fundamentally involves distinctions between relatively common versus relatively uncommon pathogens (Smith, 2004). A potential avian influenza pandemic could underscore this point of view, though with far more significant consequences. As noted, nurturance is central to the second and third evolutionary pathways. Table 2 (see the end of the article) represents an attempt to systematize and schematize emergent designs associated with nurture / nurturance. Not surprisingly. Tables 1 and 2 overlap in many ways, even though examples cited in Table 2 are deliberately limited. If one considers the contrast between humans and chimpanzees cited earlier, it immediately is apparent that nurturance contributes greatly to the explication of the “man-made / artificial” and the “abnormal, aberrant, disordered and dysfunctional.” Nurturance also contributes greatly to “life-span,” “methodological,” “philosophical,” and the “m eta-evolutionary and metaphoric” categories. What 's Ahead . . . The tripartite model of evolution may foreshadow several long- range possibilities. Just as Darwin’s theory of evolution could give rise to Winter 2006 36 the tripartite model of evolution in some animal species, future evolutionary schema may include heretofore unforeseen additional pathways producing further possibilities for emergent designs. Man- machine and man-chemical interfaces must rank among high-probability future evolutionary pathways. Hang-gliding, paragliding and rock- climbing activities all point to the potential for an intersection between nature and nurture to alter phenotypic genetic traits and other patterns of nurtured transmissions over time. These examples are cited because they reveal man’s potential to acquire skills generally thought to be inaccessible to humans ( e.g ., flying). Other examples include the use of chemicals to enhance performance (e.g., in sports) or interactions with distant contacts using computers (e.g., using the Internet or when communicating with man or other living systems during space travel). Not to be overlooked would be novel possibilities for the design of drugs and other pharmaceuticals. Drugs, chemicals and other substances targeting non-proteomic regions of the genome - and especially in the brain - could lead to alternative treats for schizophrenia, dissociative identity disorders (e.g.., multiple personalities), “brain-washing,” post-traumatic stress syndromes, and other diseases / syndromes (cf. Smith, 2003a) In citing these examples, one should not interpret them as predictions. Our goal is to stimulate others’ imaginations regarding future evolution, the evolution of evolution, and, emergent designs associated with nature and nurture in evolution. A further goal is to encourage dialogues regarding moral, ethical, and other philosophical issues (cf Gaarder, 1994). One last comment in regard to evolution and its implications for nature, nurture, and emergent designs. Just as Darwin found evidence for his theory of evolution of species after exploring the Galapagos Islands, an ‘island theory’ also has value in the exploration of nurture (cf. Smith, 1994). Much can be learned from studies of nurturance in small groups and on islands - whether physical (e.g., in New Zealand, Sicily, Sardinia, Hainan, Iceland), social (e.g., cults, prisons, militaries and armies, ghettos), political (e.g., “red” and “blue” states in the USA) and/or economic (e.g., associated with caste and class). Even though Hardy- Weinberg equations may not apply in regard to nurture, analogous heuristics reveal the value of studies of island populations. Washington Academy of Sciences 37 Conclusions A novel post-Darwinian model of evolution is discussed in this brief essay. The model represents a modest attempt to integrate evolution across species with a broader view of evolution within individuals, within their species, and across species. The proposed tripartite model of evolution has five additional salutary features. First, it provides clues to quantitative assessments of nurture and the relative contributions of nature and nurture in animals with brains in bony crania - though especially in humans. Second, the model reveals the importance of understanding different modalities for the transmission of evolutionary information; to wit, genetic and germ-line transmission constitute a relatively small part of evolution. Third, the model points to alternative futures, some of which had been anticipated accurately ( e.g ., HIV/AIDS; see Smith, 1979; Smith, 1984; Smith, 1994; Smith, 2001; Smith, 2003a; Smith, 2004), and alternative evolutionary schemas. Fourth, the model reveals that Lamarckian and Darwinian notions of evolution are parsimonious, with Lamarck’s notion of adaptation (Lamarck, 1819) comporting well with our notion of nurturance. Finally, it may be reasonable to anticipate drugs and other chemicals (including psychedelic preparations) having direct effects on non-proteomic regions of genomes and attendant biochemical pathways (e.g., associated with adenine <-> adenosine biochemical pathways). The possible distinction regarding the relative contributions of nature and nurture in evolutionary settings provides a unique opportunity to discuss emergent designs associated with nature and nurture. Although Tables 1 and 2 point to some emergent design considerations related to nature and nurture respectively, these Tables are by no means complete. For example, psychological, political, and economic aspects of emergent designs associated with nature and nurture are not discussed. The latter would include discussions of early detection of emergent designs, memory for emergent designs (e.g., ‘Oscar moments’ involving memory for scenes in movies), transmission of emergent designs (e.g., on radio, television, and the Internet), aberrant processes (e.g., “transmissible negativism” and aberrant commonsense; out-of-body, near-death and past-life experiences; etc.), and/or cultural aspects of emergent designs (cf. Smith, 2006c). Nor do Tables 1 or 2 address emergent design issues specifically related to the separate interdependent evolutionary pathways - and especially in utero and other placental pathways (Gross, 2006; Kriegs et ciL, 2006). These will be the basis for future studies. Finally, opportunities for social designs and engineering are not discussed (e.g., novel designs and theories of Winter 2006 38 measurement and testing which take into account nurturance and peer group processes). References Aibib. M. A.. Billard. A.. Iacoboni. M.. and E. Oztop. (2000). 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(1941). The Uniqueness of Man. London: Chatto and Windus. Iacoboni. M.. Molnar-Szakacs. I.. Gallese. V.. Buccino. G.. Mazziotta. J.C.. and Rizzolatti. G. (2005). Grasping the intentions of others with one's own mirror neuron system. PloS Biology’ 3(3). E79. pp. 0529-0535. Kriegs. J. O.. Churakov. G.. Kiefmann. M.. Jourdan. U.. Brosius. J.. and Schmitz. J. (2006). Retroposed elements as archives for the evolutionary history of placental mammals. PLoS Biology’ 4(4). 0537-0544. Lamarck. J-B. (1819/1984). Zoological Philosophy : An Exposition With Regard to the Natural History of Animals (reprint). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Washington Academy of Sciences 39 McClintock. B. (1950). The Origin and behavior of mutable loci in maize. Proceedings of the National A cade my of Sciences ( USA ) 36:3 44-3 5 5 . Rizzolatti. G. and Craighero. L. (2004). The mirror-neuron system. Annual Review of Neuroscience 27. 169-192. Sakano. H., Huppi. K.. Heinrich. G.. and Tonegawa. S. (1979). Sequences at the recombination sites of immunoglobulin light-chain genes. Nature 280:288-294. Smith, R. W. (1979). Long-Term Memories: Where Does the 'Buck' Stop? — Toward a Testable Theory of Debugging the Molecular Basis of Long-Term Memories in Living Organisms. Abstracts . Seventh Meeting of the International Society for Neurochemistry f Jerusalem. ISRAEL — September 2-6]. p. 590. Smith, R. W. (1984). AIDS and 'Slow Viruses'. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 437:576-607. Smith. R. W. (1987). The National Impact of Negativistic Leadership: A Need for National Caveats Emptor. In Abstracts, 1987 Amiual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association [Anaheim, CA — March 26-28]. p. 28. Smith. R. W. (1988). Transmissible Negativism and Its Possible Relation to Irrational Behavior and Poor Common Sense. Presented to the XXIV International Congress of Psychology [Sidney. AUSTRALIA — August 28 - September 2\. Smith. R. W. (1994). On Mechanisms of Slowness and Progressiveness in Slowly Progressive Processes. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 724:430-434. Smith. R. Wm. (2001). Opinion: The Durban Declaration. The Scientist 15(2):39. Smith. R. Wm. (2003a). Autovirulence - An epigenetic model of molecular mimicry in living systems: Broad implications for aberrant translation products and autoimmunity. Abstracts . XIX International Congress of Genetics [Melbourne. AUSTRALIA - July 6-1 1 1. Abstract #2.G.0246. p. 225. Smith. R. Wm. (2003b). Revisiting the Molecular Biology. Genetics and Genomics of Long-Term Memory in Living Systems. Abstracts , XIX International Congress of Genetics [Melbourne. AUSTRALIA - July 6-11], Abstract #5.C.0802. p. 133. Smith. R. Wm. (2004). Two axioms from sentential logic used to disambiguate cause, consequence, infectious and non-infectious cofactors, opportunism and association in lentivirus and other infections: Implications for revising the Henle-Koch Postulates and for public health policy on infectious diseases, vaccines and vaccinations. Abstract submitted for presentation at the XV International AIDS Conference [Bangkok. THAILAND - January 4], Smith. R. Wm., and Shadel. R. (2003). Preliophic Moleculator Using Electric Fields And Gradients For Manipulating Molecules. US Patent Application #10/879.627. Smith. R. Wm. (2006a). Evolution and Long-Term Memories in Living Systems: Using molecular biology to resolve three great debates . . . Lamarck versus Darwin. Nature versus Nurture, and the Central Dogma. Presentation at the Winter Chaos 2006 Conference / Snowflake Forum ( ) [Pittsburgh, PA - Februarv 3- 5]. Smith. R. Wm. (2006b). Evolution and Long-Term Memories in Living Systems: Using molecular biology to resolve three great debates . . . Lamarck versus Darwin. Nature versus Nurture, and The Central Dogma. Presentation to the San Francisco Tesla Society ( ) [San Francisco. CA - February 12] Winter 2006 40 Smith. R. Wm. (2006c). Evolution and Long-Term Memories in Humans: Implications for Theoretical and Clinical Research on Consciousness and the Transpersonal. In Consciousness Research Abstracts (Journal of Consciousness Studies). "Toward a Science of Consciousness 2006" Conference. #215. p. 154. Teilhard de Chardin. P. (1959). The Phenomenon of Man (translated from Le Phenomene Humain by Bernard Wall). New York: Harper & Row Publishers. Inc. Tonegawa. S.. Maxam. A. M.. Tizard. R.. et al. (1978). Sequence of a mouse germ-line gene for a variable region of an immunoglobulin light chain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 75:1485-1489. Vemy. T. R.. and Kelly. J. (1981/1983). Das See/enleben des Ungeborenen - Wie Mutter und J ’ (iter schon fur der Geburt Personlichkeit und Gluck ihres Kindes fordern konnen [The Soul Life of the Unborn -...]. Berlin: Rogner & Bernhard. Zou. Z.. and Buck. L. B. (2006). Combinatorial Effects of Odorant Mixes in Olfactorv Cortex. Science 311 : 1477-148 1 . Acknowledgments I am deeply indebted to Jerry L. C. Chandler, Neill Edwards, Carlos Torre, Anita Rodriquez, and Vijay Padmanabhan for their personal and professional assistance. Their assistance was truly invaluable! Glossary Aberrant / Aberration / Aberrancy - a notion that some traits / behaviors may differ from normal, modal or median-like traits / behaviors. The term aberration is used to distinguish between occasional situations that may arise in life though in contrast to blatant abnormality, disease, illness, and/or other “wrong” or implicitly “negative” contexts. For purposes of this report, we posit my variant on “Murphy’s Law;” to wit, “if things can be different in living situations, those different situations will arise in life - possibly as aberrations, aberrant situations or outliers.” Genome - The full complement of DNA in a cell of a particular organism. In humans, the genome comprises 23 pairs of chromosomes along with an “X” and/or “Y” chromosome, and mitochondrial DNA. Murphy's Law - “If something can go wrong, it will ...” Non-proteomic - referring to that portion of cellular DNA which does not encode for proteins. Washington Academy of Sciences 41 Nurture - Nurture, which often is contrasted to nature, refers to the process of acquiring and replicating learned, cultural, or other experiential information and its possible transmission (usually via non-genetic, non- proteomic means) to others. In this report, a central thesis and premise is that nurture most often is reflected in non-proteomic changes in DNA which are not transmitted to the host’s germ-line (/.*?., sperm or ova), whereas nature is reflected in genetic and proteomic (i.e.9 non-learned) traits that generally are transmitted via the germ-line. For clinical and pragmatic purposes, it is hypothesized that the ratios of C*G :: A*T DNA base-pairs in select organs ( e.g ., in selected regions in the brain and the immune system) represent crude, albeit quantifiable , measures of nurture - perhaps the first quantitative measures of nurture! Parsimony - A notion that a single or “best-fit” “thread” or theme may underlie one or more phenomena. The notion of parsimony put forth in this report deliberately goes beyond the notion of Ockham’s Razor insofar as those which may be “best-fit” may fundamentally involve complexities rather than mere simplicities. The old saw or adage of “keeping it simple, stupid” [KISS] is rejected, particularly as it applies to the transpersonal and its evolution. Preliophic moleculator - Devices and processes invented in 1996 to capture the bidirectional flow of molecular information based on PRotonic-ELectronic-IOnic-PHotonlC gradients (Roulette Wm. Smith and Robert Shadel, international patents pending). The device is called a moleculator for MOLECUlar calcu LATOR. Proteome - The portion of the genome which encodes for proteins. Proteomic - referring to the proteome; to wit, that portion of the genome which encodes for proteins. Syntrophy - mathematical, chemical and physical measures of tendencies toward organization and order in information (as contrasted to entropy). For DNA in brain and if G*C connotes Guanine*Cytosine base pairs and A*T connotes Adenine*Thymine base-pairs, then (G*C :: A*T)Changing ltm / (G*C :: A*T)baseiine are crude measures of ‘syntropy’ - with (G*C :: A*T)baseiine being determined for tissue not undergoing changes in DNA (e g., DNA from a hair follicle). [NB: An obvious example of syntropy occurs when single complementary strands of DNA are deposited in an aqueous solution, with their complementary base-pairing occurring after Winter 2006 42 relatively short order. For practical considerations, 'time’ is not a variable in the calculation of syntropy; rather, syntropy is a measure of increased order/organization.] Transmissible - the acquisition of information or traits by genetic and or other non-prole omic genomic mechanisms. Transpersonal - stages and/or states of human development through which a person's self-awareness extends beyond the personal. Classic examples of the transpersonal include consciousness, rational, spirituality, mystical, dreams, etc. For this discussion, the transpersonal is more broadly defined and includes soul, spirit, knowledge and beliefs, erotetics (that is, the logic of one’s [especially good] questions), competence, “commonsense,” appearance, taste and aesthetics, wisdom and elder nurturance, persistence and tenacity, and antecedent (and sometimes evolutionary) conditions which may define or shape one’s development. Help for Unknowingly Needy and Worried Well - (A model for social design and engineering) It is said that ... “Mankind may be divided into four classes: ( 1 ) Those who KNOW and know that they KNOW - of them seek knowledge; (2) Those who KNOW but do not know that they KNOW - awaken them; (3) Those that do not KNOW and know that they do not KNOW - instruct them; (4) Those who do not KNOW but think that they KNOW- they are fools, dismiss them.” Salomon Ibn Gabirol (also known as Avicebron) In Mibhar Hu-Peninim [ Choice of Pearls ] No. 60 (circa 1050 AD) [NB: An analysis of this adage reveals that those with and without knowledge may be partitioned, albeit somewhat simplistically, according to their education, alertness, motivation and ability to educate. The range of possibilities is even more instructive if the words “NEED” and/or “HELP” are substituted for the capitalized and italicized word “KNOW.”] Washington Academy of Sciences 43 Table 1 - Examples of Emergences of Designs in Nature Concepts, Formations & Formalities Examples Man-Made / Artificial Abnormal, Aberrant, Disordered & Dysfunctional Geological formations Crystals; geodes; Quartz timers and transistors Earthquakes; tsunamis; etc. Physical, biological and physiological Counter-current mechanisms in oceans and kidneys; Viruses and infectiousness; Stem cells; Velocity - Electro negativity of phosphates, sulfates, etc.; genetic tools (e.g., restriction enzymes, nucleases, kinases, proteases, etc.); Submarines and ballasts; Genetic engineering; Stem cells; Gradients in preliophic systems; In vitro fertilization; Cell sorting; Genetic, congenital and other birth or developmental disorders; trauma; bioterrorism; HIV/AIDS Sensory and perception Sounds; shapes; sights; sizes; smells; etc. Sounds; shapes; sights; sizes; smells; etc. Synesthesia; dyslexia; other diseases of sensation & perception; Biophysical Movements & gradients; Microtubulin- associated proteins (MAPs) Electrophoresis; Isoelectric focusing; Ampholytes; Aberrantly synthesized molecules Processes Cellular Electrophoresis; slow viruses; molecular Preliophics; HIV/AIDS; information processes Winter 2006 44 Pathways Electron chains and proton processing Mitochondria Chloroplasts; Central dogma; Inverse molecular information pathway; Biochemical pathways; Preliophic moleculators Genetic diseases and defects Asymmetry, symmetry, parallelism and segmentation Organisms Preliophics Tumors & cancers Mathematics & codes Fibonacci sequences Recursion; constants Redundancy G*C and A*T base pairings; Redundancy and fault tolerance; Space probe disasters Philosophical In vivo; hi virtualis (pre/iophics); In vivo; A priori A posteriori; Evolutionary; Complexity; In vitro; In vivo^in vir tit a list-tin vitro; A priori A posteriori; Parsimony; Ockham’s razor; Infection & disease; Causality versus consequences; Illogical & Aberrant logics; Metaphoric “Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny” “Engineering recapitulates reality” Computer worms & viruses; psychoviruses; re¬ engineering; Washington Academy of Sciences Table 2 - Examples of Emergences of Designs Involving Nurture Concepts, Formations & Formalities Examples Man-made / Artificial Abnormal, Aberrant, Disordered & Dysfunctional Geological formations and representa- Tions Statues; sculpture; arts; dream space & time among aboriginal peoples “down under” Timers and clocks; cave paintings; movies; edifices and monuments Aberrant measurements and prurient constructs; Inappropriate habitats along coasts, earthquake faults, liquefaction sites Physical, biological, physiological , social, educational Nesting; parenting; fight- flight- fright mechan¬ isms; menses and meno¬ pause; gender; passive immune transfers & breast¬ feeding; imitation & psycho¬ virus transmis¬ sions Homes; schools; villages; hunter- gathers; justice; caste (Laws of Manu); class; slavery; war; religion; government; printing press; agriculture, radio, television, computers; internet; iPODs; social inventions; pushing the limits Prisons; trauma; orphanages; bankruptcies; medical/surgical consequences; discrimination; racism; divorce; pandemics; war; bombs; autism syndromes; HIV/AIDS; bioterrorism Winter 2006 46 Sensory and perception Tastes; smell; other tactile responses; food; rituals; beliefs versus reality; Creativity; fine arts; literature; cuisine; apparel; music; dance; recreational and ritual substances; shamanistic practices; enhancement substances and activities; radio; TV Psychedelics and substance abuse; lack of thorough documentation of extinctions; destruction and disorders of senses and perceptions; Biophysical and meta¬ physical Sleep, dreams, rest and relaxation, contempla tion; anticipa¬ tion Clairvoyance Sleep disorders; out-of- body experiences; near death experiences; past life experiences; apparitions Transpersona 1 and other processes Conscious ness; commonse nse; desire; spirituality ; wit; humor; wisdom; compassio n; gifts & volunteeri sm; heroism Religion; philanthropy; archetypes Trauma; autism; transmissible negativism; psychoviruses; lying; Temporary’ autism; bigotry Pathways Careers; avocations and interest Religion; spiritual & transformational quests Cults; terrorism; exploitation; Asymmetry, symmetry. Central dogma Cooperation; competition; Trinucleotide (TNR) diseases; bankruptcies; Washington Academy of Sciences 47 parallelism and segmentation versus inverse molecular informatio n pathways; genetic code versus inverse code governing storage of molecular informatio n in DNA economic models and decision theory; globalization in labor, economies and war; business cycles; Mathematics and codes Fibonacci sequence Recursion; heuristics; computability; Dewey decimal system & Library of Congress filing schemas; international book numbering systems; DOI article and journal referencing codes; cryptography Computer viruses and worms Redundancy Redundan cy in language and brain structures / processes Redundant designs in aircraft, emergency vehicles, & hospital services and procedures Apollo, Challenger and space probe failures Life-span Aging; elder wisdom; Insurance; Social Security; Medicare / Accidents, war; diseases Winter 2006 48 legacy; impact; impor¬ tance; knowing when and how to stop; extinct¬ ions Medicaid; Elderhostels; adult education; life after death and reincarnation; archetypes Methodologi cal Census; simulation Epidemiology; preliophics Failure to record and report common versus uncommon pathogens Philosophical Subtlety; elegance; appreciati on; open- minded¬ ness; verisimili¬ tude; reliability; validity; efficiency; phenomen ology; logic; causality; conse¬ quences; “good” question¬ asking & “good” question answering (erotetics), paradigms & paradigm Peer review; juries; autotoxicity; autovirulence; context- specificity; knowing when and how to stop (involving decisions, experiments, gambling, substance abuse and other addictions, and war); ge dan ken studies; Henle- Koch postulates for a single pathogen causing a single disease “Is the good the enemy of the best?” (Horrobin, 1982); Henl e-Koch postulates for complex infections (e g., EBV and HIV); Dogma including Lthe central dogma’, 'one gene - one protein, HIV is the sole cause of AIDS, and infectious pathogens must include nucleic acids Washington Academy of Sciences 49 shifts; morals & ethic; Meta¬ evolutionary and metaphoric Structure versus function; cosmolog y and the cosmic gaming ‘Big Bang’; inflation theory; God and godliness; syntropy versus entropy; Does structure precede function, or does function precede structure? Do sciences recapitulate arts? War; decline and fall of empires; Holocausts; extinctions of the endangered Winter 2006 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 51 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON HUMAN MOODS AND EMOTIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR WORKPLACE AND WORKFLOW DESIGN Thomas Meylan, Ph D. EvolvingSuccess® Burtonsville. MD Abstract The human body is designed to monitor a variety of multi-band channels delivering extremely large amounts of information from the environment. It is also designed to monitor vast amounts of information regarding its own internal states and conditions. This information flow is filtered and assessed by a large number of control loops that prepare the body for life-sustaining activity. These preparations also generate a large number of subliminal emotions that start to intrude themselves into a person’s inner dialog if the control loops generating them remain unclosed or unsatisfied for a long enough period of time. The lack of congruence between natural environments and the typical workplaces inhabited by know ledge workers means that the information flow received by these control loops lacks evidence that the workplace can sustain life, and the loops remain unclosed and unsatisfied. The implication of these information deficient work environments on knowledge worker mental health and productivity is discussed, and general recommendations made for re-engineering w orkspaces and w orkflow . Introduction The human organism is intimately linked to its environment through the intake of massive amounts of information from the environment. This is facilitated through a wide variety of multi-band channels into the body. The availability and openness of these channels, combined with the density of data being delivered through them, set the pedestal level for the psychological comfort of the healthy human individual. In addition, information flow within the body is highly dependent on the stimulation received through the senses, and upon the chemical and hydration state of the body itself. Information-expectant control loops, either chemically based or based in the nervous system, monitor both the Winter 2006 52 state of the body and the state of the environment. Depending on the states detected, these control loops create motivations for the body to act in accord with the three primary drives presented in an earlier paper, and listed in a section below.1 Illustrations to Expose the Phenomena On average, the highest rates of suicide among industrialized nations occur in Scandinavian countries. Research into this statistical oddity revealed a phenomenon now called seasonal affective disorder (SAD). It has been connected to the relative lack of exposure to full spectrum sunlight during winter months brought about by the high latitudes of these countries. Interestingly, during the past two years, news reports have occasionally appeared describing research on sun-tanning addiction. Apparently, exposing the skin to solar levels of UV radiation triggers the release of endorphins. For many people, this creates a condition similar to runner’s high (which we’ll talk about in a minute). Now that we have two firmly established data points on a phenomenon, we can draw our uncontestable straight line through them and (also) draw the following conclusion: human bodies are programmed to seek out exposure to sunlight. Why? Mostly, in addition to triggering the release of endorphins, exposure to sunlight also triggers the photosynthesis of vitamin D in the skin. This is a vital element in good health. Let’s get back to runners’ high to anchor another uncontestable two-point conclusion. Physical exertion in competitive sports is widely known to create positive moods in a large segment of the physically active population. Anecdotally, one often hears of people claiming to feel very good after completing heavy physical chores, especially if they have sedentary professional occupations. To define our second point on this line, we look at the rise of cases of depression during the 20th Century. While some arguments could be made that a significant rise in depression is due to increased reporting of such cases to doctors, the rise of depression maps very well to the transition of large segments of the American population out of rural-based farming lifestyles into urban-based, less physically demanding lifestyles. Washington Academy of Sciences 53 The level of physical activity has continued to drop off for most people through the remainder of the 20th Century to the present, and the condition of mental health in the country remains relatively poor. (See Seligman 19952, p. 37 for summaries of four studies in the time-development of depression in the American population.) What do we conclude here? The human body is programmed to monitor its own level of physical activity, and apparently is also programmed to reward the owner with certain positive emotional perqs if it achieves certain levels of exertion. Why should this be? Perhaps the answer is as simple as this: active animals are better players at the game of natural selection. Successful animals have to hustle, at least once in a while. “Doing” trumps “being” in the animal kingdom. So, the emotional programming of the human body includes emotional rewards based on physical exertion, and the control loops that deliver them. In other words, information about physical exertion is generated in the body’s chemistry. The readout of that information affects the emotional state of the individual. Various levels of exertion apparently create a spectrum of positive emotional experiences, while sedentary lifestyles generate increasingly inert piles of complacency or even mild depressions. The control loops monitoring life-sustaining activities “know” when a body isn’t being used properly, and “punish” accordingly with an increasingly unsatisfying emotional experience of life. These anecdotal musings provide us with two illustrations of information management in a human body. One illustration provides us a glimpse of information collection strategies to monitor external conditions. The second one shows us that large amounts of information are also generated within the body itself, and is in fact utilized in creating or destroying various motivational mechanisms. Let’s mark down two simple, more or less self-evident conclusions: 1. The emotional experiences of people are highly dependent on information collected from the environment within which they find themselves, and, 2. The emotional experiences of people are highly dependent on the information generated within their own bodies about the conditions within them. In the rest of this article we will propose answers to the following questions: • Where does all of this information come from? Winter 2006 54 • How does this information affect emotional states? • Why do modem work environments affect so many people adversely? • How can a manager re-engineer workspace and workflow to emulate the environments human bodies expect to function in? Methodology There may be some who will be less than satisfied with the lack of rigorous connection to a base of scholarly or professional literature in this presentation. However, the literature in evolutionary psychology (“ev psych” for convenience), the field which provides the basis of this presentation, is aimed at a very different set of studies. To be both candid AND fair, it has established a single principle of study, that being the application of natural selection to the formation of successful animal behavior, and for humans, the formation of both successful behavior and thought. If we view thought as a form of behavior instead of as a non¬ material phenomenon associated exclusively with humans, we get a better handle on dealing with this admittedly difficult topic. The problem with much literature in ev psych is that it has jumped to big problems before is has refined the way its primary principle is applied to human thought and behavior at a smaller level. It is trying to answer questions from other fields before it has adequately defined questions arising from its own initial inquiries. To illustrate this point, let’s briefly look at the history of astronomy. Ancient Greek astronomy took its foundational premise from contemporaneous philosophy, which stated that in the perfection of the heavens, all heavenly bodies travel in perfect circles. As we know from the history of astronomy, it was very difficult to reconcile eye-ball observations of planetary motions with this “accepted truth.” With this is mind, let’s consider an example from literature in ev psych. An early popular book in this field made a similar jump from philosophy. In The Moral Animal (Wright 19943) the author explicitly believes that humans exhibit moral behavior, and then attempts to use ev psych to explain why this is so. However, like the premature acceptance of circles in Ptolemaic astronomy, the use of the term “moral behavior” is premature in that it establishes a category which may not necessarily simplify the scientific study of human thought and behavior, especially when the term is used to Washington Academy of Sciences 55 form value judgments instead of define a quantity suitable for objective measurements. What we instead are attempting in this presentation is “rough science” (to steal the title of a great PBS television program) on field studies of large primates in their most commonly observed setting. These are populations of humans at work. Our team at EvolvingSuccess has a combined experience of over 100 years in observing and working with people in a very wide range of knowledge-based industries. We also have over 50 years of combined experience managing people in professional contexts which include the pastoral ministry, human resources management and training, large computer system integration management for Federal and Fortune 100 clients, as well as real time astronomy satellite operations and research center management. To work through this large trove of admittedly anecdotal data, we have derived a small number of ideas from the basic principle of ev psych. In traditional academia, ev psych is used to explain various phenomena in humans based on the premise that most of these behaviors occur as services to the genes carried by animals’ bodies and were optimized for conditions one to three million years ago to assure the transmission of these genes. For instance, about five years ago numerous news magazines and nightly news television shows picked up findings about human mate selection strategies based on a few ev psych studies. Men, it was determined, try to engage as many mates as possible in order to spread their genes around in the greatest numbers possible. Women, who by the nature of things can’t arbitrarily throw their genes around, tend to select well-healed mates to assure that the small number of offspring they produce will live to sexual maturity, start their own reproductive activities, and therefore keep their genes moving more broadly into the ecosystem. As astrophysicists (turned high tech business people), with a somewhat more cosmological view of things, we find this “selfish gene worldview” somewhat silly, and certainly overly anthropomorphic. Even if there is a form of geno-mechanics that facilitates a functional “selfishness” in genes, if the environment says a certain combination of genes loses the game of natural selection, then that combination loses, plain and simple. It doesn’t matter how selfish genes are, they don’t come near to having the final say in the course of evolution. Our work, on the other hand, attempts to reassert the importance of environment in understanding human thought and behavior as a product of natural selection. This is an explicitly macroscopic view of natural Winter 2006 56 selection. Humans have changed the environmental pressures upon themselves faster than natural selection can keep up, and consequently the information systems currently installed in human animals are tuned to a different set of pressures than humans currently face in modern work places. Our model of human information processing sub-systems, produced via the method of system reverse engineering (and presented in the Fall, 20051 issue of this journal) suggests epochs for the appearance of each of these sub-systems scattered back through several hundred million years of natural history. Our argument is if a sub-system emerged a million years ago, it is probably tuned to conditions at that place and time much better than it is tuned to current. First World, knowledge-based work environments. The aim of this interpretive work is to generate practical applications from ev psych. Our ambition is to derive repeatable human capital management techniques that will improve business performance in knowledge-based companies or the performance of any service-oriented organization. The human animal is built for best performance in environments other than the modem, knowledge industry work place. How can managers adapt themselves and their work forces to overcome and/or take advantage of this reality? By examining our anecdotal dataset, collected over 50 years of highly successful managerial experience with the interpretive tools made available by evolutionary psychology and information system engineering, we hope eventually to answer that question. In the present paper, we offer some observations about the effects of modern work environments on human emotion as distilled from our managerial experience by this interpretive approach. The observations suggest a few high-level strategies for modifying work environments to achieve better performance from people working outside of “their naturally selected comfort zones.” Natural Selection, Information Requirements for Large Mammals, and the Channels Currently Utilized j As noted in the previous paper in this sequence , the following drives serve as guiding principles for animal success in general, and as system design requirements for animal information processing in particular: • The drive to eliminate or avoid all forms of pain or discomfort. Washington Academy of Sciences 57 • The drive to have sex. • The drive to nurture offspring to self-sufficiency in the shortest time possible. In this macroscopic context, all living things are highly dependent on information collection and response to play the game of natural selection. However, the information requirements for animals are huge when compared to the members of other living kingdoms. This becomes ever more clear when we attempt to map out the channels carrying information into an animal body. One also begins to appreciate the tremendous power of human sensory processing capability when you take a close look at those channels. These channels look extremely wide-band from one perspective, but most of them are not. Human eyes, for example, can collect data from only about one octave out of the electromagnetic spectrum (being sensitive from roughly 350 nanometers to 700 nanometers: doubling the wavelength gives you an octave). That is a mere sliver of the entire range of energies photons can deliver. Yet, even within this narrow range of photon energies, the eye and brain divide those energies into separate channels that we experience as individual color sensations. The Channels and Detectors Contrary to subjective impression, human sensory organs are detecting stimuli on a 24x7 basis. Furthermore, all sensory organs are functioning simultaneously. “Back-office” processing of this information changes with the 24 hour diurnal cycle. It changes when various stimulation thresholds are breached. It changes more drastically when various internal conditions fall more greatly out of balance, and the body begins to seek out resources for rebalance. Pre-processing in the sensory organs, as well as back-office processing in the brain, change even more quickly when threatening conditions are detected. Let’s list and briefly work through the various channels which deliver information to the human body. The channels under consideration here are limited to those that provide information about the external environment with which the body is not in direct physical contact, as required for touch and taste. However, the channels that remain go beyond sight, sound and smell. • Infrared radiation channel t Winter 2006 58 Infrared radiation is experienced as heat or warmth. It is sensed mostly through the skin, and its detection tells us whether we need to find a warmer place or a colder place, how many clothes to put on, or how many to take off While your skin isn’t able to produce images, it can do pretty well at detecting the direction of a source of heat, like the sun or a large fire in the distance. The detection of infrared radiation by your skin also affects your body chemistry, and a variety of physiological conditions change with the level of heat your skin detects. Extremes of heat or cold often lead to strong emotional responses such as fear. • Visible spectrum light channel This is the light detected by properly functioning eyes. Even though the eyes only detect approximately one octave of the entire electromagnetic spectrum, it is possible that this represents the most data- dense channel that human beings use. The imaging and resolution capabilities of human eyes provide greatly detailed information about the environment extending for several miles, and very much useful information for as far as the air is clear. The combination of two eyes also provides very good information about distances, sizes, changes, speeds, and many other quantities. The information from the eyes is also color-coded. Color is an information enhancement artifact generated by eyes and brain; colors as perceived are arbitrary from a universal standpoint, but the colors do convey real information. They help to interpret the content of the environment. Green is a soothing color, presumably because it represents locations where food and water can be obtained. Likewise, sparkling things attract our attention, probably suggesting the presence of open water. There is also a type of geometric coding that’s important for vision. Human eyes are part of an exceptionally complex pattern recognition system, and the patterns they are tuned to recognize are fractal patterns. These are the patterns in the shapes of trees, or the shapes of clouds, or river streams, or even the textures observed in a field of grass. This is the geometry of the natural environment to which all human information processing systems are tuned. When an individual is deprived of exposure to natural colors, like the greens of healthy vegetation, and deprived of exposure to settings dominated by fractal geometry, many information processing loops in the Washington Academy of Sciences 59 body go unclosed. This is interpreted by the body’s systems as though it is in a resource-poor environment and thus creates any of a number of anxieties. • Ultraviolet radiation channel Ultraviolet, or UV, radiation is also mainly detected by the skin. Its most obvious effect on the skin is tanning in the sun. You can even create simple, contact images on your skin if you’re patient enough (or have a “properly vented” swimsuit). But tanning is only one of a family of chemical reactions in the skin that strongly affect mood. As noted above, there is a strong correlation between exposure to UV sunlight and emotional states. • Audio signal channel Audio signals received by the ears represent perhaps the second densest channel of information into your body. You don’t get quite the detail that you do with vision, but information about location, distance, speed, and size can be obtained. Like color in vision, audio signals are also coded in pitch. And also like vision, your sense of hearing is equipped with pattern recognition capabilities that look for fractal geometry patterns with respect to time. Rhythmic patterns in music tend to be fractal, produced by the continued halving of the durations of notes and the inteijection of percussive events splitting the time between two other simple musical events. Sound also tells you how rich in resources your environment is. Most people enjoy the sounds of running water, like streams or waves on the beach. The sounds of birds are also pleasing to most people. Why? They are clear-cut clues that you can find food and water nearby. When your sense of hearing is deprived of these natural sounds, you begin to experience anxieties out of concern for a lack of resources to keep alive. • Infrasonic signal channel The deep bass of thunder, waves, and earthquakes are perceived as pressure waves on the body as a whole. These waves are perceived like touch instead of like sound. The thumping feet of large animals may also be detected in this way, providing something of a warning of approaching predators. High pressure, low frequency acoustic waves elicit a variety of emotional responses depending on the perceived source of the stimulus. • Chemical detection channel Winter 2006 60 Perhaps the most under appreciated channel affecting mental health is the sense of smell. Compared to vision, the sense of smell doesn’t offer a wealth of detail. About all you can tell when you smell something is that there’s a source of the smell somewhere nearby. You can also tell whether or not the smell is likely to be good for you in greater concentrations. But here’s the key. Everything in your body, including all of your information processing systems, is run on biochemistry. Life operates on the basis of the chemical resources that an animal body can find. If you can’t find food and water you’re dead. That’s why being able to detect vital chemicals in your environment is so important. The chemical detectors of the nose are the only sensory detectors directly wired to the brain. What’s fascinating is that your nose is busy detecting chemicals that you don’t even sense as smell Yet, when your nose detects key chemicals in the air, it signals the brain that the appropriate resources are close by. Conversely, when your environment is filled with filtered air, your nose is deprived of evidence that you are living in a resource-rich environment. For lack of chemical evidence detected by your nose, you start to become anxious. Let’s collect together the channels for easier reference. • Infrared radiation channel • Visible spectrum light channel • Ultraviolet radiation channel • Audio signal channel • Infrasonic signal channel • Chemical detection channel The reason we call these channels (aside from the fact that that’s what they are) is to evoke a specific image. The “transmitter” of these channels, if you will, is the environment itself. These channels create a connection between the environment and the individual human attempting to succeed in it. We can then think of the human being as a mobile computing unit operating in a vast network of data sources. What makes this a point of criticality is that the mobile computing unit (i.e., the human being) is equipped with extensive arrays of pre¬ initialized condition expectations. These amount to the triggers that make us feel good or feel bad under any given set of circumstances. For large Washington Academy of Sciences 61 mammals in particular, the deviations from these environmental expectations (or deviations from internal “specifications” as well) are extremely closely monitored by the systems that create our emotions. As noted in the previous paper1, emotions exist to function as condition assessments, alerts, and, when appropriate, the signals that a drive satisfaction behavior has succeeded. Let’s look at this more closely in the next section. Naturally Selected Sensory Targets, Emotions, and Drive Satisfaction Strategies In the previous section we listed the various channels that your body, as a node on the environment’s “wireless network,” is connected to. These wireless channels provide data to your body about the state of your environment, and whether it can sustain your life easily or not. If you were to remove this node (your body) from this wireless network of environmental data resources, it would receive MUCH LESS information to use in determining how well you can live where you are. The flow of data from the natural environment would drop to nearly zero, which basically tells your body you are living in a completely barren location without food and water. Over a long enough time, this elevates a cluster of negative emotions into the awareness of your inner dialog, where you start trying to figure out what’s driving you crazy. This becomes increasingly worse, because you can’t figure out why you feel this way. Working in an office in front of office machinery is one way to remove a node from the natural environment. You’re working in a perfectly comfortable place, are perfectly well fed and watered, and the job is going great. Yet you still feel antsy enough to run out of your office in a panic (or, at least, a good number of people experience vaguely unsettled or unsatisfactory emotional states). This doesn’t come about from “an urge to be free.” It comes about because your body arouses itself to seek an environment that more obviously and assuredly will support its life. Most minor workplace anxieties would evaporate for people if they simply got some serious exposure to active natural settings everyday, a couple times a day. In the previous paper outlining the primary EvolvingSuccess model of human thought and behavior1, we made use of the following Winter 2006 62 diagram to describe how an emotional experience evolves with time while a given drive goes unbalanced or unsatisfied. Figure 1: Time Dependence of Subjective Emotional Experience when a Drive or Data-handling Function is out of Balance Every one of the data input ports in the human body is followed by, or attached to, some cluster of data evaluation systems. These evaluative functions could be hosted on a chemically-based process, a neurological process, or (most commonly) a combined assessment process. They store the needed standards by which to judge the incoming data as containing “good” information (yielding a positive emotional experience, no matter how fleeting), or “bad” information (initiating the downward sloping curve of a negative emotion that will persist until the information changes, or time reduces its significance). The vast majority of these evaluative systems, and there are many of them, do not generate information that creates an inner dialog event, meaning they do not generate thoughts. They aren’t strongly connected to information processing systems that operate through symbols that human beings typically use to understand and communicate their experiences, as illustrated in Figure 2 below. They usually, if not always, generate an emotional response that only rarely breaks through the subliminal into the inner dialog with a label (like anxiety). Washington Academy of Sciences 63 Figure 2. Schematic Representation of the Four Information Sub¬ systems at Work in the Human Body, with emphasis on the poor connection between the dominant sub-system of emotions and the less well developed problem solving sub-system. Symbol-based Problem Solving Sub-system Pre-tuned Condition Alert Sub-system (Emotions) Sensory Data Collection and Response Sub-system Chemical-based Information Processing Sub-system There are two things about this emotional response. Of secondary interest to this article is the fact that the experience of an emotion is actually only a bi-product of processes which are preparing the body to work on re-balancing one of the three drives. Of primary importance is that all we become aware of in our conscious experience is a feeling, and that feeling is often difficult to hook to a clear event in the environment. What does this mean for the everyday experience of life in an ordinary work environment? It means that most of our feelings at any given time are the product of a vast number of environment assessment processes over which we have very little direct awareness and no direct control whatsoever. There is another factor for emotional comfort implied by the curve in Figure 1: the factor of time. Each of the data evaluation systems includes a time dependence. The deadlines for behavioral responses for virtually all of them are very short when compared to the length of the average knowledge- work project. For example, the time it takes to flee from a predator, or conversely to chase down a running animal, is measured in seconds on the short side, and one or two minutes on the long Winter 2006 64 side. If a satisfactory conclusion to the event occurs, then all of the evaluation systems reset to an emotionally neutral state. If they don’t, well, if you’re prey you’re eaten, and if you’re predatory you’re still on the prowl. If you don’t find food for several days you continue on your quest until you succeed or you starve (a couple of weeks tops). Knowledge work, on the other hand, often entails projects that run for months or even years. Even if the job is piece work, like data entry, the sedentary nature of the job and the confinement to a single desk or cube means that an individual is not functioning properly, from a system-design point of view. We wrote early in this paper that physical activity affects emotional states, where, within certain bounds, great physical exertion tends to create positive emotions. Sedentary lifestyles, in general, lead to more negative moods, especially where there is also a lack of mental stimulation such as reading or problem solving. This indicates that there are also many data assessment processes that are monitoring internals states in the body. As a self-regulating system, the human body is full of data-driven control loops that motivate the animal to exert itself in the satisfaction of its drives. When there is a lack of bodily activity, many of these control feedback loops remain out of balance in the manner illustrated in Figure 1 above. “Out-of-balance, open, or otherwise unsatisfied control loops initiate and maintain downward sloping emotional sensations. Why should this be? The figure suggests a naturally selected advantage for active animals, or human beings. In nature an animal has to exert itself physically to satisfy drives. But modem knowledge work is sedentary. Successful drive satisfaction behaviors in modern life do not “trip the switches” indicating drive satisfaction success as currently configured by natural selection. These unsatisfied control loops will start to trigger unpleasant emotions whether the worker is successful in his or her career or not. One may ask, “What is actually experienced when these unfulfilled data evaluation functions fire off7” The answer depends, of course, on how long they go unfulfilled. The longer they go unfulfilled, the more likely a person’s awareness of them will eventually make an impression on his or her inner dialog. But prior to that point, here are some anecdotal answers: • “I feel a little off, like something might be wrong, but I just can’t tell.” (More commonly from women than men.) Washington Academy of Sciences 65 • “Boy, I feel restless.” • “My shoulders are so stiff” • A person might become surly or otherwise difficult to deal with for no apparent reason (more commonly men than women). What is it about knowledge business workplaces that create these, and more serious, emotional and behavioral phenomena in human beings? The Modern Workplace: As Alien to the Human Body as a Flying Saucer Most modern living and work environments are devoid of natural sights, sounds, colors, smells, solar radiation, fractal patterns, and other clues indicating that they might be able to support human life for the duration of a human lifespan. For a human body that is specifically tuned by millions of years of evolution to function in a natural environment, the lack of these stimuli triggers a large number of subliminal danger signals. The emotions these danger signals generate appear to follow the curve in Figure 1, as indicated by numerous coaching sessions we’ve had with employees over the years. Add to this lack of direct sensory stimulation the extended periods of time that sedentary humans perform physically inert work and you have a recipe for numerous subliminal distractions that will impact the productivity of a knowledge workforce in increasingly negative ways. The self-regulatory mechanisms of the body assess the sedentary state as negative and act to push the human animal into action. The restlessness many people experience is completely real; their bodies are attempting to get them up, out of their chairs, and into fresh air and sunlight. Over extended periods of time these unattended subliminal distractions turn into various levels of anxiety, depression, frustration, and even aggressive behavior. To put the sharpest of points on this, these negative responses are exactly what the human body is built to do when conditions are detrimental to personal health and safety. Before the human inner dialog came into existence, emotional programming pushed hominids to act on behalf of their own welfare. The ability to think using symbols to model and simulate other conditions and possible solutions was not needed for the human body to meet the design specifications of natural selection. The human body is designed to have a negative emotional response to Winter 2006 66 environments which make living difficult, and to enjoy environments which are rich in the basic resources required to sustain animal existence. Or, to put it more colloquially, human bodies don’t “know” when their knowledge-worker owners have it so good. None of these data evaluation routines in the body “understand” trading time for money as a drive satisfaction strategy. The smell of money doesn’t really elicit a gut-level response, unless it’s just been dug out of rich soil. Only a very small information system in your body understands the concept of gainful employment, and it’s not big enough to change thousands of small responses your body has to an environment ill- suited to human living. However, success in guiding troubled workers through emotional difficulties suggests that the system that understands the concept of gainful employment can also be taught how to manage those thousands of small responses to avoid negative emotional states. Managing Subliminal Emotional Responses by “Re-engineering” Workplaces and Workflows The most empowering way to deal with subliminal emotional responses is to systematically retrain a worker’s inner dialog to deal with them. That, however, is well beyond the scope of this article. On the other hand, we have employed techniques in the workplace that can “fool” the data evaluation functions of the body into assessing the environment as “good, safe, and life-sustaining.” We are not going to detail a wide range of specifics. There are many practical reasons why workspaces and workflows can not be “completely” engineered to cater to more primitive animal responses in human beings. However, with a knowledge of the data channels emanating from the natural environment, we can perhaps experiment with various work environment conditions to remediate negative worker experiences. Likewise, with a knowledge of the time dependence of these subliminal emotional experiences, workflow can be staged differently to provide both points of success that satisfy them, and to allow time for exposure to natural environments through the day. Washington Academy of Sciences 67 Reconnecting, Workers to the Environment 's Data Outflow Channels: Workspace Design Supporting Positive Workplace Emotions From an architectural standpoint, many builders and designers have attempted to create workspaces which emulate certain natural conditions. These include the extensive use of windows to bring in natural light, natural colors (various greens and earth tones), and plants. Some locations make use of fountains and other forms of moving water to create a little light-play and to produce natural sounds. Let’s look at these in more detail. The use of sunlight in workplaces makes obvious sense for a lot of reasons. It provides many key forms of visual stimulation. However, glass blocks ultraviolet radiation, the most important part of the solar spectrum for creating positive moods in people. People need to get outside for proper exposure (cancer risks and all) to the sun. The color palette for workplaces is probably important, but the key is the patterns with which they are applied. Common experience indicates that large areas of unchanging visual stimulation are uninteresting. Vast sheets of light green or neutral beige are not as soothing as natural colors applied in some form of natural looking fractal pattern. There are other visual stimuli that can be built into a workspace that evoke specific kinds of natural settings, which can include everything from large format photographs and murals to large portions of the building built with glass that actually face an attractive natural setting, like nearby woods, farmland, or parks. Our model suggests that plants are most likely a positive addition to workplace decor. In larger spaces larger plants and small trees strongly evoke a more life-friendly sense of the environment. They can also add important biochemical molecules to the air to improve subliminal emotional states. The olfactory sensory system provides a direct, biochemically driven informational link between the human and external conditions (Amen 19984). Decorative water displays obviously have to be proportionate to the area within which they operate. However, small table-top “meditation” fountains have become popular in workplaces, and perhaps these sounds can be integrated into larger, more complicated spaces. Winter 2006 : 68 Other acoustic effects could be built into a workplace using various mechanical or electronic technologies. Wind sounds could be produced, rustling leaves, or even the noises small animals make under the brush. Our model also suggests that the least attended-to set of stimuli are the airborne ones. Office air is typically highly filtered and de-humidified. Worse, the latent scents from various cleaners and the outgassing of many synthetic products fill the air with what the brain perceives as dangerous smelling chemicals. Remember, the body is built to seek out an environment containing optimal biochemical resources without needing to think about it. Office air is full of strong, unsubtle clues that the office is NOT an optimal source of biochemical resources. It smells like a vat of poisons to the brain, and that creates a lot of subliminal anxiety. Obviously, things need to be kept clean. We use advanced technology with its many, unintended by-products. That cannot be avoided. Can an office building’s air be re-filtered and stocked with trace chemicals of a natural kind9 If it can’t, then the solution, again, is to get the worker outside for some part of the day. If a human body can’t be in fresh, naturally perfumed air all of the time, at least it can be exposed to enough good air (current pollution problems aside) to create the subliminal “belief’ that good air is quickly and easily available. Of course, getting outside also exposes the human body to all of the other stimuli for which it is so well tuned to collect, assess, and appreciate. In our many years managing, we often have heard people comment on their refreshed states and improved moods after a walk outside. In fact, the best of workplace designs probably doesn’t involve interior design and architecture. Our model of the human being as a node in the environment’s network of information resources suggests that the best of workplace designs may be to build extensive garden parks around the campus of a major business district, and fill them with as many naturally stimulating features as they can contain. Synchronizing with Workers ’ Internal Clocks: Workflow Design Supporting Positive Workplace Emotions Apart from migrations and other long travels in search for food and water, few behaviors in the entire animal kingdom last more than a few minutes. Virtually all of the self-regulating controls of the human body are built on these same behavioral time scales. Washington Academy of Sciences 69 Workplace reality, however, is that nothing takes a few minutes. In the very least, most people are expected to sit dutifully at their desks for every minute they expect to get paid. People don’t sit there like that for many of the reasons we’ve been discussing, but the person signing the paychecks would prefer things that way. For many knowledge workers, though, work projects run for months and sometimes years with virtually no short timescale successes to satisfy a worker’s subliminal control loops. Very few things occur “by human hand” in business in a matter of minutes. As it turns out, our problem solving capabilities give us enough logic to keep us plugging away day after day, but that merely locks the animal part of human experience in a cage that is more than merely psychological. Things, of course, have to get done, and they have to get done in the workplace. They have to be done in environments and on timescales that strongly conflict with the naturally selected characteristics of the typical human being. How does a manager use this knowledge to avoid loss of productivity in his or her shop? For major projects, built on tasks, goals, objectives, and so forth, the current trend is to design the workflow against cost barriers and time deadlines. That’s probably not changeable for practical business performance reasons. However, the granularity of the workflow design CAN be optimized for human mental health and best performance levels. How might a different granularity of task be used to re-design work? In nature, animal behavior is dominated by three types of activity with fairly immediate rewards if they succeed: 1 . An animal searches for food and water, and if it succeeds it obtains enjoyment. 2. An animal engages in a mating activity. 3. An animal flees a predator, and if it succeeds it enjoys a sense of relief. For most of human history, success has been immediately followed by reward. By business standards, each of these three activities is a small scale effort. Obviously a business can’t drop a cupcake on everyone each time they successfully complete 15 minutes of work, nor can you bring in the dancing girls or Chip’n’Dales. And merely getting the boss (the predator) off your back for a short period of time isn’t adequate compensation either. Winter 2006 70 The point is that there is a granularity of effort and a system of rewards that can be found to optimize human performance and maintain good mental health in the workforce. It takes a committed and engaged management team to experiment and find it. The EvolvingSuccess team has been very successful in identifying the appropriate granularity of task to get the most productivity out of project participants while keeping them happy on the job. Interestingly, the more difficult and esoteric the project, the more successful our productivity techniques tend to be. On the basis of our ev psych model of human thought and behavior, we have composed an idealized daily workflow schedule designed to keep tasks short, get a modicum of exercise, as well as get exposure to natural settings should they be close to the work place. Again, this is highly idealized. Our work teams have only approximated it in practice. However, our experience in staging work with a time-granularity that aims at this ideal has been very effective. Table 1: Daily Schedule to Optimize Knowledge Worker Performance and Maintain Good Mental Health 1. Take the low-stress route to work, regardless of how long it takes. 2. Once you get to work, take care of 2 to 4 tasks taking an average 30 minutes each. 3. Get outside and get 30 to 60 minutes of exercise at the highest level of exertion you can reasonably work up. 4. Get something to eat, but just enough to settle the hunger. 5. Take care of another 2 to 4 tasks averaging 30 minutes each. 6. Get outside for a 30 minute walk. 7. Have a healthy, reasonably sized lunch. 8. Take care of another 2 to 4 tasks averaging 30 minutes each. 9. Get outside and get 30 to 60 minutes of exercise at the highest level of exertion you can reasonably work up. 10. Get another light snack. 11. Take care of another 2 to 4 tasks averaging 30 minutes each. 12. Take the low-stress route back home, and don’t be in a hurry. 13. Get in another 30 minute walk before supper. This schedule is designed to fool the body’s various environment assessment systems and self-regulating controls into assessing the situation as good. The order of events in this schedule presumes the “ short Washington Academy of Sciences 71 effort, immediate gratification” model of animal behavior in natural settings. By business standards this is an extravagant use of time during work hours. In our experience, where this ideal has been attempted but not met, this schedule avoids burnout, maintains mental freshness, and engenders productivity levels that pay for themselves. Conclusions The human body is clearly pre-tuned to receive specific data inputs from the environment. When those inputs are not received, the body generates motivations to get out of the resource-poor or dangerous environment, and move into a life-friendly environment. The longer it takes the individual to succeed in moving to a better environment, the more deeply negative are the emotions that that individual experiences. The body is also extremely well tuned to the state of its internal conditions. Many people often experience urges to get a little food, water, or other relief without a conscious thought to do so. If the body is experiencing conditions outside of its “safe operating specifications,” negative emotions crop up to motivate the individual to take care of the need. The longer it takes to satisfy the need, the more extreme the emotional sensation becomes. Modern living and working conditions place barriers between the human being and the data sources his or her body expects to detect. Long¬ term disconnection from these sources appears to be creating chronic mental health problems in the American workforce. This, of course, has various impacts on business productivity. We have suggested principles by which to guide a manager in the re-engineering of workspaces, including the landscape architecture surrounding work locations. We have also supplied a rationale to guide in the restructuring of long term work efforts. Lastly, we provided an idealized work schedule aimed at structuring time utilization on the day- to-day level. This schedule maps to the basic psychology built into human beings by natural selection to optimize their mental health and business productivity. Notes 1 Thomas Meylan, “Using Evolutionary Psychology and Information Systems Engineering to Understand Workplace Patterns of Thought and Winter 2006 72 Behavior: An Empirical Model of Human Information Processing,” I Autumn, 2005, Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences. 2 Martin E.P Seligman, Ph D., The Optimistic Child, Harper Perennial, pp. 37-42, 1995. 3 Robert Wright, The Moral Animal, Pantheon, 1994. 4 Daniel G. Amen, M.D., Change Your Brain, Change Your Life, Three Rivers Press, pp. 37-43, 1998. Washington Academy of Sciences 73 BOOK REVIEW The Best American Science Writing 2006 , edited by Atul Gawande (Harper Collins, Publishers, 2006, 362 pp.) IN SPITE OF THE TITLE, this almost certainly is not. “The best science writing” of any year should surely be factually sound, balanced, informative, and enjoyable to scientists and non-scientists alike. The 21 articles reprinted here for the most part meet those criteria. Beyond that, however, surely the best science writing would present material that has not already been repeatedly reported, or provide new perspectives on familiar material, or introduce provocative and fruitful interpretations of scientific findings. By and large, these articles do not meet that challenge. Little of the material here is new even to general readers. One might suspect just from the list of original sources of these articles that they might not constitute “the best” science writing of the year. One would not, it is true, expect the best to be drawn from premier scientific journals such as Science or the New England Journal of Medicine, where original research results are presented by scientists for other frontline scientists, in what is to non-scientists usually mind- numbing detail. But of the 21 articles collected here, no fewer than 6 are drawn from The New Yorker (is it a coincidence that the editor is a staff writer for that magazine as well as a surgeon at Brigham and Women’s Hospital?). Four more come from Harper's or The Atlantic Monthly. Another 4 first appeared in The New York Times or its Sunday Magazine. Only two originated in first tier scientific magazines directed at the general educated public. Sigma Xi’s American Scientist and Scientific American. Another two were from Discover and one from Wired. There were none from IEEE’s Spectrum , none from Mind or MIT’s Technology > Review, all of which feature first-class science writers. That does not mean, of course, that the specialized science-oriented magazines have a lock on the best science writing; but it makes one wonder about the scope of the Editor’s reading. The ten articles drawn from the literary magazines, by the way, reflect the characteristics common to articles in those publications — they are so excessively long as to try many readers’ patience and needlessly confuse the information they are meant to convey. Winter 2006 74 But if one sets aside reservations about “the best” and is willing to merely enjoy “very good” science writing, this is a book to appeal to most readers with an interest in a wide range of scientific activities, the people who carry them out, and the implications for the rest of us. The topics range from the ordinary and personal (Why are chess¬ playing computers getting better at it? What’s the best strategy for a music lover who is gradually losing his hearing? Is obesity as much of a threat to health as we are being led to believe?) to the sublime ( What is the nature of time? And is the idea of God an evolutionary artifact, or perhaps an accidental outcome of the way we think about ourselves?). The rehashing of the debate about the origin of progressive supranuclear palsy on Guam, or the closer-to-home but even more bitterly conflicted debate about childhood vaccinations as a possible cause of autism seem stale in terms of 2006, but the implications of a possible avian flu epidemic are, to use a phrase from a TV series, “ripped from the headlines.” It would, in short, be a very demanding reader who will not find something to enjoy and something to ponder in this collection. — Vary Coates, vcoates@mac. com Washington Academy of Sciences 75 NEWS OF MEMBERS, FELLOWS, AND AFFILIATED SOCIETIES Daryl Chubin, WAS Fellow, has been selected a Sigma Xi (Scientific Research Society) Distinguished Lecturer, 2007-2009. Daryl recently published, with S.M. Malcolm, “The New Backlash on Campus,” in College and University > Journal , Fall 2006. In September he spoke at the Math Alignment and Transition Conference at Southern Connecticut State University, on “Why Take More Math? A National Policy Response.” Daryl has received an NSF grant on Building Community Resources for the NSF Graduate Teaching Fellows in the K-12 Education Program. Mark Holland, WAS Vice President for Affiliated Societies, received a Faculty Appreciation Award from the Alumni Association of Salisbury University. The award is given irregularly to faculty members spontaneously nominated and elected by alumni. Alain Touwaide, President Elect of WAS, has recently published 14 entries on the history of ancient medicine and pharmacology in Medieval Science , Technology, and Medicine, An Encyclopedia, ed. by T. Glick, S. Livesey, & F. Wallis, 2005; as well as entries on botany and horticulture in J.W. Meri, ed.. Medieval Islamic Civilization. He also wrote on “Byzantine Hospitals Manuals as a Source for the Study of Therapeutics,” in B Bowers, ed.. The Medieval Hospital and Medical Practice (Avista Studies in the History of Medieval Technology, Science and Art). In November Alain presented three Lansdowne Lectures at the University of Victoria in Canada; in December he gave the inaugural lecture at the 5th Conference of the Pan-Hellenic Society for History of Medicine in Thessaloniki, Greece. Jodi Wesemann (WAS Board member-at-large) has been elected president of the DC Metropolitan Area chapter of American Women in Science, and Ester Sztein (also a WAS member) is the new Vice President for Programs. Vary Coates, editor of the WAS Journal, has been chosen as a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, “in Winter 2006 76 recognition of her early and continuing support of the concept of technology assessment.” Dr. Edward O. Haenni, a longtime member of the Academy, died on August 28, 2006, in Sanibel, Florida, at age 99. The DC Council of Engineering and Architectural Societies (DCCEAS) will hold an Engineers Week Lunch on February 21, at the Pier 7 Restaurant, and an Awards Banquet on February 24 at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Silver Spring. Sajjad Durrani, a WAS Fellow, is President of the DC Council. DCCEAS promotes science and technology in high schools and colleges, and sponsors a Student Paper Competition in local universities. DCCEAS has as affiliates 37 local chapters of engineering and architectural societies. The Philosophical Society of Washington, the area’s oldest scientific society, has scheduled eight public lectures by prominent scientists from February 2 to May 11; topics include the scourge of malaria, astrobiology, the global positioning system, obesity, chemistry against crime, Benjamin Franklin’s experiments, technologies of the future, and “the dawn of the universe.” All lectures are free and are held at the Powell Auditorium, 2170 Florida Ave, NW (Dupont Circle Metro stop). See www.philsoc.orR for the exact schedule. The World Future Society’s annual meeting will be held July 29-31 in Minneapolis, and will offer multiple sessions on technology, health, governance, education, values, and social trends. It will be preceded by short courses on futures research techniques and followed by a Professional Members’ Forum on August 1. For more information see the web site, www.wfs.oru. The Washington area sections of the IEEE and the IEEE’s Communications Society will host the 2007 Global Communications Conference (N ov. 25-Dec. 1, at the Washington Hilton Hotel). The web site already has information about the program, exhibits, and activities: http ://www.comsoc. oru/confs/ul obecom/2007/i ndex , html . Jerry Gibbon, a past president of WAS, is the General Chairman of the conference. The Chesapeake Section of the American Association of Physics Teachers held its annual meeting October 27-28 at James Madison University, and elected the following officers: President, Brett Taylor (Radford Washington Academy of Sciences 77 University); Vice President, Deonna Woolard (Randolph-Macon College); Secretary, David Wright (Tidewater Community College); Treasurer, Eric Kearsley (High Point High School, Beltsville); Vice-President for Communications, Rhett Herman (Radford University); Section Representative, David Wright (Tidewater Community College). In addition, the following prizes were awarded: Frank R. Haig Prize (best paper from a 4 year college): a tie: Joseph W. Rudmin (James Madison University) and Brett Taylor (Radford University) James Newman Prize (best paper from a high school): a tie: Saharsha Nambiar (Millbrook High School) and Michael Pagel (Collegiate School) David Wright Prize (best paper from a two year college): James O’Connell (Frederick Community College) Winter 2006 AFFILIATED INSTITUTIONS The National Institute for Standards and Technology Meadowlark Botanical Gardens The John W. Kluge Center of the Library of Congress Potomac Overlook Regional Park Washington Academy of Sciences 79 WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 2006 M=Member; F=FeIlow; LF=Life Fellow; LM=Life Member; EM=Emeritus Member; EF=Emeritus Fellow ABDULLA YER, KENZHE (M) ABDULNUR, SUHEIL F. (Dr.) 5715 Glenwood Road, Bethesda MD 20817(F) ABELSON, PHILIP H 10528 Georgia Ave., Silver Spring MD 20902 (F) ALLEN, J. FRANCES (Dr.) The Southerlands, Apt 213, 600 Mount View Street, Front Royal VA 22630 (EF) ANASTAS, PAUL T (Mr.) 217 E. Bellefonte AveSt, Alexandria VA 22301-1351 (M) APPETITI, EMANUELA PO Box 25805, Washington DC 20027 (M) ARSEM, COLLINS (Mr.) 3144 Gracefield Rd Apt 117, Silver spring MD 20904-5878 (EM) ARVESON, PAUL T. (Mr.) 6902 Breezewood Terrace, Rockville MD 20852-4324 (F) BAILEY, R. CLIFTON (Dr.) 6507 Divine Street, Mclean VA 22101-4620 (LF) BARBOUR, LARRY L. (Mr.) Pequest Valley Farm, 585 Townsbury Road, Great Meadows NJ 07838 (M) BARWICK, W. ALLEN (Dr.) 13620 Maidstone Lane, Potomac MD 20854-1008 (F) BASILI, VICTOR R. (Dr.) A.V. Williams Building, University of Maryland, College Park MD 20742 (F) BEACH, LOUIS A. (Dr.) 1200 Waynewood Blvd., Alexandria VA 22308- 1842 (EF) BEAM, WALTER R. (Dr.) 4804 Wellington Farms Drive, Chester VA 23831 (F) BEMENT, ARDEN (Dr.) National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, Virginia 22230 (F) BERG, RICHARD E. (Dr.) 8308 Quill Point Dr., Bowie MD 20720 (F) BERGMANN, OTTO (Dr.) 1039 South 19th St., Arlington VA 22202- 1611 (EF) BERMAN, BARRY L. (Prof.) Department of Physics, George Washington University, Washington DC (M) BERRY, JESSE F. (Mr.) 2601 Oakenshield Drive, Rockville MD 20854 (M) BIBERMAN, LUCIEN M. (Mr.) 3731 Glen Eagles Drive, Silver Spring MD 20906 (F) Winter 2006 80 BIONDO, SAMUEL J. (Dr.) 10144 Nightingale St., Gaithersburg MD 20882 (F) BLUNT, ROBERT F. (Dr.) 541 1 Moorland Lane, Bethesda MD 20814- 13335 (F) BODSON, DENNIS (Dr.) 233 N. Columbus Street, Arlington VA 22203 (F) BOGNER, MARILYN SUE (Dr.) 9322 Friars Road, Bethesda MD 20817- 2308 (LF) BOYER, WILLIAM (Mr.) 3725 Alton PI, N.W., Washington DC 20016 (M) BRANCATO, EMANUEL L. (Dr ) 7370 Hallmark Road, Clarksville MD 21029 (EF) BRIMMER, ANDREW F. (Dr.) Suite 302, 4400 MacArthur Blvd., NW, Washington DC 20007 (F) BRISKMAN, ROBERT D. (Mr.) 61 Valerian Court, North Bethesda MD 20852 (F) BROWN, ELISE A B (Dr.) 6811 Nesbitt Place, Mclean VA 22101-2133 (LF) BURNS, EDGAR JOHN 415 Lincoln Ave, Avon NH 07717 (EF) BUTTERMORE, DONALD O. 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(Dr.) 976 Spencer Rd., McLean VA 22102 (F) COHEN, MICHAEL P. (Dr.) 1615 Q. St NW T-l, Washington DC 20009-6310 (LF) COHEN, ROBERTA (Ms.) The Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC 20036 (F) COLE, JAMES H. (Mr.) 9404 Fairpine Lane, Great Falls VA 22066 (M) CONLEY, ROBERT E. (Dr.) Conley & Associates, Inc., 9001 Saunders Lane, Bethesda MD 208 1 7 (F) COOPER, KENNETH W. (Dr.) 4497 Picacho Drive, Riverside CA 92507-4873 (EF) COSTRELL, LOUIS (Mr.) Apartment 640, 1801 East Jefferson St, Rockville MD 20852 (EF) CREVELING, CYRUS R. (Dr.) 4516 Amherst Lane, Bethesda MD 20814 (F) CURRIE, S.J., C. L. (Rev.) Pres., Assn of Jesuit, Colleges & Universities, One Dupont Circle NW #405, Washington DC 20036 (F) DAVIS, DANIEL (Dr.) 6324 N. 24th St., Arlington VA 22207 (M) DAVIS, ROBERT E. (Dr.) 1793 Rochester Street, Crofton MD 21 1 14 (F) DEDRICK, ROBERT L. (Dr.) 1633 Warner Avenue, Mclean VA 22101 (EF) DEAN, DONNA (Dr.) 29 Eldwick Court, Potomac MD 20854-2027 (F) DENG, Francis M. (Dr.) (F) DEUTSCH, STANLEY (Dr.) 7109 Laverock Lane, Bethesda MD 20817 (EF) DOCTOR, NORMAN (Mr.) 6 Tegner Court, Rockville MD 20850 (EF) DONALDSON, EVA G. (Ms.) 3941 Ames St Ne, Washington DC 20019 (F) DONALDSON, JOHANNA B. (Mrs.) 3020 North Edison Street, Arlington VA 22207 (EF) DUBEY, SATYA D. (Dr.) 7712 Groton Road, West Bethesda MD 20817 (EF) DUNCOMBE, RAYNOR L. (Dr ) 1804 Vance Circle, Austin TX 78701 (F) DUPONT, JOHN E. (Mr.) P.O. Box 358, Newtown Square PA 19073 (F) DURRANI, SAJ (Dr.) 17513 Lafayette Dr, OLNEY MD 20832 (EF) EDINGER, STANLEY EVAN (Dr.) Apt #1016, 5801 Nicholson Lane, North Bethesda MD 20852 (F) EISNER, MILTON PHILIP (Dr.) 1565 Hane Street, Mclean VA 22101- 4439 (F) EL KHADEM, HASSAN (Dr.) Dept, of Chemistry, American University, Washington DC 20016-8014 (EF) Winter 2006 82 ENDO, BURTON Y. (Dr.) 1010 Jigger Court, Annapolis MD 21401-6886 (EF) ETTER, PAUL C. (Mr.) 16609 Bethayres Road, Rockville MD 20855- 2043 (F) FAULKNER, JOSEPH A (Mr ) 2 Bay Drive, Lewes DE 19958 (F) FAUST, WILLIAM R. (Dr.) 2940 Karen Dr, Chesapeake Beach MD 20732-3845 (F) FAY, ROBERT E. (Dr.) 7252 Greentree Rd, Bethesda MD 20817 (F) FINKELSTEIN, ROBERT (Dr.) 1 1424 Palatine Drive, Potomac MD 20854-1451 (M) FLOURNOY, NANCY (Dr.) 3 1 05 Trailside Dr., Columbia MO 65203- 5817(F) FOCKLER, HERBERT H. (Mr.) 10710 Lorain Avenue, Silver Spring MD 20901 (EF) FORZIATI, ALPHONSE F. (Dr.) 65 Heritage Dr, Unit 6, Cleveland GA 30528 (EF) FRANKLIN, JUDE E. (Dr.) 7616 Carteret Road, Bethesda MD 20817- 2021 (F) FREEMAN, ERNEST R. (Mr.) 5357 Strathmore Avenue, Kensington MD 20895-1160 (EF) FREEMAN, HARVEY 1 1 South Eutaw, Apt 1302, Baltimore MD 21201 (F) GAUNAURD, GUILLERMO C. (Dr.) 4807 Macon Road, Rockville MD 20852-2348 (F) GEBBIE, KATHARINE B. (Dr.) Physics Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, MS 8400, Gaithersburg MD 20899-8400 (F) GIBBON, JOROME (Mr.) 311 Pennsylvania Avenue, Falls Church VA 22046 (F) GIBBONS, JOHN H. (Dr.) Resource Strategies, P.0 Box 379, The Plains VA 20198 (F) GIBSON, DOUGLAS 963 1 Boyett Ct, Fairfax VA 22032 (M) GIFFORD, PROSSER (Dr.) 540 N. St. SW59 Penzance Rd, Woods Hole MA 02543 (F) GLASER, HAROLD (Dr.) 1902 Berryman Street, Berkeley CA 94709- 1919 (EF) GLAZE, JOHN (Mr.) 658 E St., S.E., Washington DC 20003 (F) GLUCKMAN, ALBERT G. (Mr.) Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (EF) GOOD ALL, JANE (Dr.) The Jane Goodall Institute, 4245 Fairfax Dr Ste 600, Arlington VA 22203-1698 (F) Washington Academy of Sciences 83 GORDON, NANCY M Associate Director for Demographic Programs, US Census Bureau, Washington DC 20233 (F) GOULD, RICHARD G. Telecommunications Systems, 3643 Upton Street, NW, Washington DC 20008 (F) GRAY, JOHN E. (Mr.) PO Box 489, Dahlgren VA 22448-0489 (M) GRAY, MARY (Professor) Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science, American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC 20016 (F) GREENOUGH, M. L. (Mr.) Greenough Data Assoc., 616 Aster Blvd., Rockville MD 20850 (EF) GUDE, GILBERT (The Honorable) 541 1 Duvall Drive, Bethesda MD 20816-1871 (F) GUPTA, PRADEEP KUMAR (Dr.) 8301 Arlington Blvd. #405, Fairfax VA 22182 (F) GUTERMUTH, PAUL-GEORG (Dr.) IM Wingert 28, 53604 Bad Honnef , Germany (EF) HACK, HARVEY (Dr.) Ocean Systems, Northrop Grumman Corp., POP Box 1488, MS 9105, Annapolis MD 21404 (F) HACSKAYLO, EDWARD (Dr.) 7949 N Sendero Uno, Tucson AZ 85704-2066 (EF) HAIG, SJ, FRANK R. (Rev.) Loyola College, 4501 North Charles St, Baltimore MD 21210 (F) HANEL, RUDOLPH A. (Dr.) 3881 Bridle Pass, Ann Arbor MI 481 OS- 2264 (EF) HAYNES, ELIZABETH D (Mrs.) 7418 Spring Village Dr., Apt CS 422, Springfield VA 22150-4931 (M) HAZAN, PAUL 14528 Chesterfield Rd, Rockville MD 20853 (F) HEANEY, JAMES B 6 Olive Ct, Greenbelt MD 20770 (M) HERBST, ROBERT L. (Mr.) 4109 Wynnwood Drive, Annadale VA 22003 (LF) HEYER, W. RONALD (Dr.) MRC 162, PO Box 37012, Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC 20013-7012 (F) HIBBS, EUTHYMIA D (Dr.) 7302 Durbin Terrace, Bethesda MD 20817 (M) HILL, Christopher T. (Dr.) George Mason Univ. Original Bldg. Rm. 236, Mail Stop 3B1, 3401 Fairfax Dr. Arlington, VA 22030 HERSHON, Bob (Mr.) Directorate for Human Resources Programs, AAAS, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 HOFFELD, J. TERRELL (Dr.) 11307 Ashley Drive, Rockville MD 20852-2403 (F) Winter 2006 84 HOLLAND, PH D., MARK A. 201 Oakdale Rd., Salisbury MD 21801 (M) HOLLINSHEAD, ARIEL (Dr.) 23465 Harbor View Rd #622, Punta Gorda FL 33980-2162 (EF) HONIG, JOHN G (Dr.) 7701 Glenmore Spring Way, Bethesda MD 20817 (LF) HOOVER, LARRY A. (Mr.) 1541 Stableview Drive, Gastonia NC 28056- 1658 (M) HOROWITZ, EMANUEL (Dr.) Apt 618, 3100 N. Leisure World Blvd, Silver Spring MD 20906 (EF) HOWARD, SETHANNE (Dr.) 5526 Dory Lane, Columbia MD 21044 (M) HOWARD-PEEBLES, PATRICIA (Dr.) 1457 Cattle Baron Court, Fairview TX 75069 (EF) HUDSON, COLIN M. (Dr.) 107 Lambeth Drive, Asheville NC 28803- 3429 (EF) HUMMEL, LANI S. (Ms.) PO Box 3520, Annapolis MD 21403-0520 (M) HURDLE, BURTON G. (Dr.) 6222 Berkley Road3440 south Jefferson St, Falls Church VA 22041 (F) HUTTON, GEORGE L. (Mr.) 1086 Continental Avenue, Melbourne FL 32940 (EF) IKOSSI, KIKI (Dr.) 6275 Gentle LN, Alexandria VA 22310 (M) JACOX, MARILYN E. (Dr.) 10203 Kindly Court, Montgomery Village MD 20886-3946 (F) JARRELL, H. JUDITH (Dr.) 9617 Alta Vista Ter., Bethesda MD 20814 (F) JENSEN, ARTHUR S. (Dr.) Chapel Gate 1 104, Oak Crest, 8820 Wather Blvd, Parkview MD 21234-9022 (LF) JOHNSON, EDGAR M. (Dr.) 1384 Mission San Carlos Drive, Amelia Island FL 32034 (LF) JOHNSON, GEORGE P. (Dr.) 3614 34th Street, N.W., Washington DC 20008 (EF) JOHNSON, JEAN M. (Dr.) 3614 34th Street, N.W., Washington DC 20008 (EF) JOHNSON, PHYLLIS T. (Dr.) 833 Cape Drive, Friday Harbor WA 98250 (EF) JONG, SHUNG-CHANG (Dr.) 8892 Whitechurch Ct, Bristow VA 20136- 2005 (LF) JORDANA, ROMAN DE VICENTE (Dr.) Batalla De Garellano, 15, Aravaca, 28023, Madrid, Spain (EF) Washington Academy of Sciences 85 JULIENNE, PAUL S. (Dr.) 100 Bureau Drive,, Stop 8423, Atomic Physics Division, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg MD 20899 (F) KAHN, ROBERT E. (Dr.) 909 Lynton Place, Mclean VA 22102 (F) KAPETANAKOS, C.A. (Dr.) 4431 MacArthur Blvd, Washington DC 20007 (EF) KATZ, ROBERT (Dr.) Omega-3 Research Institute Inc., Suite 700, 3 Bethesda Metro Center, Bethesda MD 20814 (F) KAY, PEG (Ms.) Vertech Inc., 61 1 1 Wooten Drive, Falls Church VA 22044 (LF) KEEFER, LARRY (Dr.) 7016 River Road, Bethesda MD 20817 (F) KEISER, BERNHARD E. (Dr.) 2046 Carrhill Road, Vienna VA 22181 (F) KIPSHIDZE, NICHOLAS (Dr.) Cardiovascular Research Foundation, 55 East 59th St. 6th floor. New York NY 10022-1 1 12 (F) KIRKBRIDE, JR., JOSEPH H. (Dr.) 1001 Devere Drive, Silver Spring MD 20903 (F) KLINGSBERG, CYRUS (Dr.) 1318 Deerfield Drive, State College PA 16803 (EF) KLOPFENSTEIN, REX C. (Mr.) 4224 Worcester Dr., Fairfax VA 22032- 1140 (LF) KRUGER, JEROME (Dr.) 619 Warfield Drive, Rockville MD 20850 (EF) LANHAM, CLIFFORD E. (Mr.) P.0 Box 2303, Kensington MD 20891 (F) LASLO, ZOHAR (Dr.Prof.) 10 Haseora Street, Rehovot 76454 , Israel (F) LAWSON, ROGER H. (Dr.) 10613 Steamboat Landing, Columbia MD 21044 (EF) LEE, YONG-SOK (Dr.) 10991 Centrepointe Way, Fairfax Station VA 22039 (F) LEIBOWITZ, LAWRENCE M. (Dr.) 3903 Laro Court, Fairfax VA 22031 (LF) LEINER, ALAN L. (Mr.) Apartment 635, 850 Webster Street, Palo Alto C A 94301-2837 (EF) LENTZ, PAUL LEWIS (Dr.) 5 Orange Court, Greenbelt MD 20770 (EF) LESHUK, RICHARD (Mr) 9004 Paddock Lane, Potomac MD 20854 (M) LEWIS, DAVID C. (Dr.) 609 Sideling Court, Vienna VA 22180 (F) LEWIS, E. NEIL (Dr.) Spectral Dimensions, Inc., 3416 Olandwood Court, Olney MD 20832 (F) LIBELO, LOUIS F. (Dr.) 9413 Bulls Run Parkway, Bethesda MD 20817 (LF) Winter 2006 86 LINDQUIST, P E., ROY P (Mr.) 4109 Fountainside Lane, Fairfax VA 22030-6097 (F) LING, LEE (Mr.) 1608 Bel voir Drive, Los Altos CA 94024 (EF) LINK, CONRAD B (Dr.) 407 Russell Avenue, #813, Gaithersburg MD 20877 (EF) LIPSETT, MORLEY (Dr.) 1529 Whitesails Drive, RR1, Z-62, Bowen Island, Be VON 1G0 , Canada (EF) LONDON, MARILYN (Ms.) 3520 Nimitz Rd, Kensington MD 20895 (F) LONG, BETTY JANE (Mrs.) 416 Riverbend Road, Fort Washington MD 20744-5539 (F) LOOMIS, TOM H. W. (Mr.) 11502 Allview Dr., Beltsville MD 20705 (EM) LOVEJOY, THOMAS E. (Dr.) The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, 1001 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, STE. 735 South, Washington DC 20004 (F) LUTZ, ROBERT J. (Dr.) 17620 Shamrock Drive, Olney MD 20832 (F) LYON, HARRY B. (Mr.) 7722 Northdown Road, Alexandria VA 22308- 1329 (M) LYONS, JOHN W. (Dr.) 7430 Woodville Road, Mt. Airy MD 21771 (EF) MADHAVAN, GURUPRSAD State University of New York, 143 Washington St #2f, Binghamton NY 13901-3108 (M) MALCOM, SHIRLEY M. (Dr.) 12901 Wexford Park Court, Clarksville Maryland 20005 (F) MANDERSCHEID, RONALD W. (Dr.) 10837 Admirals Way, Potomac MD 20854-1232 (LF) MARTIN, CHARLES R. (Dr.) PO Box 7, Huntington MD 20639 (F) MARTIN, WILLIAM F 9949 Elm Street, Lanham MD 20706 (F) MARTIN, P.E BCEE, EDWARD J (Dr.) 15366 Stillwell Road, Huntsburg OH 44046 (M) MARVEL, KEVIN B. (Dr.) American Astronomical Society, Suite 400, 2000 Florida Ave NW, Washington DC 20009 (M) MATHER, John (Dr.) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, JWST Project Office, Mailstop 433.0, Greenbelt MD 20771 (F) MENZER, ROBERT E. (Dr.) 90 Highpoint Dr, Gulf Breeze FL 32561- 4014(F) MESSINA, CARLA G. (Mrs.) 9800 Marquette Drive, Bethesda MD 20817 (F) METAILIE, GEORGES C. (DR.) 18, Rue Liancourt, 75014 Paris , FRANCE (F) MEYLAN, THOMAS (Dr.) 3550 Childress Terrace, Burtonsville MD 20866 (M) Washington Academy of Sciences 87 MILLER, LANCE A. (Dr.) 7403 Buffalo Avenue, Takoma Park MD 20912 (EF) MINTZ, RAYMOND D. (Mr.) 815 Duke Street, Rockville MD 20850 (F) MITTLEMAN, DON (Dr.) Apartment 909, 5200 Brittny Dr. S, St. Petersburg FL 33715-1538 (EF) MOROWITZ, HAROLD J (Dr ) The Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study, Mail Stop 2A1, George Mason University, Fairfax VA 22030 (M) MORRIS, J. ANTHONY (Dr.) 4550 N Park Ave Apt 104, Chevy Chase MD 20815-7234 (M) MORRIS, P.E., ALAN (Dr.) 4550 N. Park Ave. #104, Chevy Chase MD 20815 (EF) MOUNTAIN, RAYMOND D. (Dr.) 5 Monument Court, Rockville MD 20850 (F) MUMMA, MICHAEL J. (Dr.) 210 Glen Oban Drive, Arnold MD 21012 (F) MURDOCH, WALLACE P. (Dr.) 65 Magaw Avenue, Carlisle PA 17015 (EF) NEKRASOV, ARKADI (Dr.) Bldg. 1, 420 Flat, House 4 Kuncevskaja St, 121351 Moscow , Russia CIS (F) NOFFSINGER, TERRELL L. (Dr.) 125 Echo Valley Road, Auburn KY 42206 (EF) NORRIS, KARL H. (Mr.) 1 1204 Montgomery Road, Beltsville MD 20705 (EF) O'HARE, JOHN J. (Dr.) 108 Rutland Blvd, West Palm Beach FL 33405- 5057 (EF) OHRINGER, LEE (Mr.) 5014 Rodman Road, Bethesda MD 20816 (EF) ORDWAY, FRED (Dr.) 5205 Elsmere Avenue, Bethesda MD 20814- 5732 (EF) OSER, HANS J. (Dr.) 8810 Quiet Stream Court, Potomac MD 20854- 4231 (EF) OSTENSO, GRACE (Dr.) 9707 Old Georgetown Rd #2618, Bethesda MD 20814-1763 (EF) OTT, WILLIAM R. (Dr.) Physics Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Stop 8400, Gaithersburg MD 20899-8400 (F) PARASCANDOLA, JOHN (Dr.) 11503 Patapsco Dr, Rockville MD 20852 (M) PARR, Albert C. (Dr.) NIST, 100 Bureau Dr., MS-8440, Gaithersburg, MD 20877 (F) PATEL, D. G. (Dr.) 1 1403 Crownwood Lane, Rockville MD 20850 (F) PAYNE, ZABORIAM E. (F) Winter 2006 88 PA Z, ELVIRA L. (Dr.) 172 Cook Hill Road, Wallingford CT 06492 (EF) PERROS, THEODORE P. (Dr.) 500 23rd Str. NW B-606, Washington DC 20037 (EF) PICKHOLTZ, RAYMOND L (Dr ) 3613 Glenbrook Road, Fairfax VA 22031-3210 (EF) POLAVARAPU, MURTY 8610 Dellway La, Vienna VA 22180 (F) POLLARD, HARVEY B (Dr.) Department of Anatomy, Phsiology,, and Genetics, USUHS, Naval Medical Center, Bethesda MD 20814 (F) PROCTOR, JOHN H. (Dr.) 102 Moray Firth, Ford’s Colony, Williamsburg VA 23 1 88 (LF) PRYOR, C. NICHOLAS (Dr.) 2299 Puppy Creek Rd„ Amherst VA 24591 (F) PRZYTYCKI, JOZEF M. (Prof.) 10005 Broad St, Bethesda MD 20814 (F) PYKE, JR, THOMAS N. (Mr.) 4887 N. 35th Road, Arlington VA 22207 (F) QUIROZ, RODERICK S. (Mr.) 4520 Yuma Street, N.W., Washington DC 20016 (EF) RADER, CHARLES A. (Mr.) 1101 Paca Drive, Edgewater MD 21037 (EF) RAJAGOPAL, A K Code 6860.1, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington DC 20375 (EF) RALL, JOSEPH EDWARD (Dr.) 3947 Baltimore Street, Kensington MD 20895 (EF) RAMAKER, DAVID E (Dr.) 6943 Essex Avenue, Springfield VA 22150 (F) RAMSEY, NORMAN F. (Dr.) Lyman Physics Laboratory, Harvard University, Cambridge MA 02138 (LF) RAUSCH, ROBERT L. (Dr.) P O. Box 85447, University Station, Seattle WA 98145-1447 (F) RAVITSKY, CHARLES (Mr.) 37129 Village 37, Camarillo CA 93012 (EF) REDISH, EDWARD F. (Prof.) 6820 Winterberry Lane, Bethesda MD 20817(F) REINER, ALVIN (Mr.) 1 1243 Bybee Street, Silver Spring MD 20902 (EF) RHYNE, JAMES J. (Dr.) 1830 Corona Ave., Los Alamos NM 87544- 5767 (F) RICKER, RICHARD (Dr.) 12809 Talley Ln, Darnestown MD 20878- 6108 (F) Washington Academy of Sciences 89 RIDGELL, MARY P.0 Box 133, 48073 Mattapany Road, St. Mary's City MD 20686-0133 (LM) ROBERTS, SUSAN (Dr.) Ocean Studies Board, Keck 752, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington DC 20001 (F) ROBINSON, MICHAEL HILL (Dr.) 8291 SW Bent Oak Court, Stuart FL 34997 (EF) ROESCH, DARREN M (Dr.) Unit 808, 7915 Eastern Ave, Silver Spring MD 20910 (M) ROSE, WILLIAM K. (Dr.) 10916 Picasso Lane, Potomac MD 20854 (F) ROSENBLATT, JOAN R. (Dr.) Apartment 702, 2939 Van Ness Street. N.W, Washington DC 20008 (EF) SAENZ, ALBERT W. (Dr.) 6338 Old Town Court, Alexandria VA 22307 (F) SAFRANEK, BARBARA (Dr.) 1401 N. Taft Street #526, Arlington VA 22201 (M) SAMARAS, THOMAS T. (Mr.) 1 1487 Madera Rosa Way, San Diego CA 92124 (M) SAVILLE, JR, THORNDIKE (Mr.) 5601 Albia Road, Bethesda MD 20816-3304 (LF) SCHALK, JAMES M. (Dr.) 267 Forest Trl, Isle of Palms SC 29451-2518 (EF) SCHINDLER, ALBERT I. (Dr.) 6615 Sulky Lane, Rockville MD 20852 (F) SCHMEDDLER, NEAL F. (Mr.) Omni Engr & Technology, Inc, 82200Greensboro Dr #900, McLean VA 22102 (F) SCHMIDT, CLAUDE H. (Dr.) 1827 North 3rd Street, Fargo ND 58102- 2335 (EF) SCHROFFEL, STEPHEN A. 1860 Stratford Park PI #403, Reston VA 20190-3368 (F) SCRIBNER, BOURDON F. (Mr.) 9109 River Crescent Dr., Annapolis MD 21401-7731 (EF) SEBRECHTS, MARC M. 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