V\/AS Volume 96 Number 1 Spring 2010 Journal of the WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Editor’s Comments J. Maffucci i Author Instructions iii Affiliated Institutions iv Science Books & Films, the Review Guide of AAAS. H. Malcomson 1 Where’s My Nobel Prize and Other Public Relations Faux Pas, R. Stombler. 5 From Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying Logics Used in Science. 5. Umpleby. 15 Minutes, Science is Murder, R. Hietala 27 Capital Science 2010 photos 39 ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC Washington Academy of Sciences Founded in 1898 Board of Managers Elected Officers President Kiki Ikossi President Elect Mark Holland Treasurer Larry Millstein Secretary James Cole Vice President, Administration Lisa Frehill Vice President, Membership Sethanne Howard Vice President, Junior Academy Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliated Societies E. Eugene Williams Members at Large Denise Ingram Donna Dean Frank Haig, S.J. Alianna Maren Daryl Chubin Russell Vane III Past President: Albert H. Teich Affiliated Society Delegates: Shown on back cover Editor of the Journal Jacqueline Maffucci Associate Editor: Sethanne Howard The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy. It publishes articles on science policy, the history of science, critical reviews, original science research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest to its members. It is published quarterly. The last issue of the year contains a directory of the current membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Members, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal free of charge. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis, payable in advance. Payment must be made in U.S. currency at the following rates. US and Canada $25.00 Other Countries $30.00 Single Copies (when available) $10.00 Claims for Missing Issues Claims must be received within 65 days of mailing. Claims will not be allowed if non- delivery was the result of failure to notify the Academy of a change of address. Notification of Change of Address Address changes should be sent promptly to the Academy Office. Notification should contain both old and new addresses and zip codes. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WAS, 6'^ Floor, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC. 20005 Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Academy Office Washington Academy of Sciences 6'" Floor 1200 New York Ave NW Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202/326-8975 Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences 202/326-8975 email: was@washacadsci.org website: www.washacadsci.org Editor’s Comments It is with great excitement that I introduce the Spring 2010 issue of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Scienees. Not only is it my first issue as the Editor of the Journal, but also it is a small sampling of some of the great presentations that were given at the reeent Capitol Seience 2010 Conferenee. I was thrilled to have the opportunity to partieipate in this conference. The diversity and quality of the presentations was astounding. Being new not only to WAS, but also to the Capitol Region, this conference was an exeellent way to familiarize myself with some of the great research being eondueted by the WAS affiliate members. It also provided me with a few ideas for upcoming issues of the Journal! This issue includes the minutes to the very successful Science Is Murder event held in December 2009. This event featured a panel of distinguished murder mystery authors, all of whom use seience to develop their plots. The event was well attended and the discussion was very interesting. From there, we delve in to CapSci 2010. This issue features a pictoral overview of some of the events held during this 2-day conferenee. Consider it a way to set the stage for all those that missed CapSci 2010 (how unfortunate for you!). Our first article, written by AAAS Senior Program Associate Heather Malcomson, focuses on the history of the Science Books & Films (SB&F) review journal published by AAAS. This program uses volunteer scientists and science educators to review science materials (of all media types and edueational levels) for their accuraey, presentation, and appeal. These reviews are published in SB&F for all to read. This is not only a great resource for seience educators, but also a wonderful opportunity for scientists to volunteer their expertise for a great cause. Continuing on the topic of science communieation is Robin Stombler’s article entitled Where’s My Nobel Prize and Other Public Relations Faux Pas. Ms Stombler’s presentation at CapSci generated a very engaging discussion, and this article is sure to get you thinking. It focuses on the importance of seienee communication at a very basic level. Ms Stombler reminds us that as scientists, we need to be aware of our use of language when addressing different audienees, and offers some helpful adviee as to how to more effeetively eommunieate with the public. Spring 2010 ii The final article of this issue changes from science communication to the world of Cybernetics. Stuart Umpleby offers an example of the application of this field in From Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying Logics Used in Science. With that, I hope that you enjoy this issue of the Journal. I encourage all of our readers, and particularly our CapSci participants, to submit an article in the upcoming months. I look forward to working on future issues of the Journal. Sincerely, Jackie Maffucci Washington Academy of Sciences Ill INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS 1. Manuscripts should be in Word (Office 03/07) and not PDF. 2. They should be 6,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by the Editor). If there are 7 or more graphics, reduce the number of words. 3. Graphies (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in greytone only (no color accepted), and be easily resizable by the editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the graphics. 4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field represented by the manuscript. They must be accurate, eomplete, and eonsistent in format throughout the paper. 5. Inelude both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author (or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if any. 6. Papers are peer reviewed. 7. Send Manuseripts by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to Journal@washaeadsci.org or directly to the editor, Dr. Jaequeline Maffucci - iamaffucci@gmail.eom. Hard copy cannot be aeeepted. Manuseripts can be accepted by any of the Board of Discipline Editors. Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetiti@hotmail.com Elizabeth Corona - systems scienee at elizabethcorona@gmail.eom Jim Eigenreider - science edueation at iim@deepwater.org Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at teiTell.erickson@wdc.nsda.gov Mark Holland - botany at maholland@salisburv.edu Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org Carol Eacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@nist.gov Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu Kent Miller - eomputer scienees at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@hotmail.com Steve Traeton - atmospherie studies at s.traction@hotmail.com Spring 2010 AFFILIATED INSTITUTIONS The National Institute For Standards and Technology Meadowlark Botanical Gardens The John W. Kluge Center of the Tibrary of Congress Potomac Overlook Regional Park Koshland Science Museum American Registiy of Pathology Living Oceans Foundation Washington Academy of Sciences Science Books & Films, the Review Guide of AAAS Heather Maleomson Senior Program Associate at AAAS Published by the American Association for the Advancement OF Science (AAAS), Science Books & Films (SB&F) is a global critical review journal devoted exclusively to print and nonprint materials in all of the sciences for all age groups (K-college, teaching and general audience). SB&F reviews trade science books, DVDs, websites and other electronic resources. Reviews are written by scientists and science educators who evaluate the materials based on their accuracy, presentation and appeal to the intended audience. Careful evaluation of these resources is vital for a better understanding of science by the next generation. SB&F has been the authoritative guide to science resources for 46 years, bringing librarians and other educators the expert information they need to make the best decisions when choosing science materials for their libraries, classrooms, or institutions. It’s been over 50 years since the inception of SB&F. The notion that scientifically accurate and appealing science books are an important tool for engaging children and youth in science was the cornerstone of a joint venture between the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). This idea eventually became the journal SB&F. In 1955, with support from NSF, AAAS initiated a “Traveling High School Library.” Selected collections of 200 books in the sciences and mathematics were loaned to high schools nationwide on a rotating basis. In 1959, a similar collection of 160 titles was established for elementary schools with central library collections. In addition to the traveling collections, NSF support enabled AAAS to publish and disseminate a series of monographs containing annotated bibliographies of the selected books plus many more. These book lists were comprehensive guides to recreational and collateral reading and basic reference works for junior and senior high school students, college undergraduates, and non-specialist adults. NSF continued to support the traveling library programs and annotated book lists through 1 964, at which time AAAS institutionalized the activity by establishing SB&F as a quarterly journal. Spring 2010 2 Over its 46 year history, the journal has become a valuable tool of the trade for librarians, media specialists, teachers and other educators looking for the best science resources for their classrooms and libraries. Throughout the years SB&F has adapted its format and added new features, both in print and online, to keep up with the changing role of libraries and the capabilities of technology. Last year SB&F made its biggest and boldest move by transitioning to an entirely online journal (wwvv.sbfonline.com). Our new online home allows us to continue to do what we do best, provide critical reviews of science books, while using technology to enhance our content and provide new and exciting features for our subscribers. Last year the staff of SB&F worked tirelessly to completely redesign and upgrade SB&F Online. The new online version of SB&F is now up and running with many more exciting features than the paper journal ever had to offer. SB&F Online is much more than an online journal; it is an interactive community for anyone looking for a reliable source of science book reviews and educational materials related to science books. The versatility of an online space grants SB&F the opportunity to continually create, update, and add features that enhance our user’s experience with the journal. The new SB&F Online includes many features, such as: • A searchable database of science book. DVD, website, and software reviews from the past 12 years: Users can search the database by title, author, subject area, audience level, rating and more. • Instant access to new reviews: New reviews are added to the website on a weekly basis. No more waiting for the bi-monthly print journal to come out to read new reviews. • Printable monthly issues: Each month we post a printable PDF issue with all of the latest reviews and a feature article. Many of our readers still enjoy leafing through the paper copy! • Access to the current and past SB&F Best Books lists: SB&F has been creating our renowned Best Books list for over 25 years. The Best Books list is a comprehensive list of the best science books reviewed over the previous year. Librarians and other educators have come to rely on this list when making their purchasing decisions and weeding their collections. The Best Books list is released each January. Washington Academy of Sciences 3 • The Editor’s Blog: This blog is place where the editors oi' SB&F ean post news and information related to science books and science edueation. The blog is also a place for the editors to interact with SB&F subscribers. Subseribers and registered users can post comments on blog entries. • A new and improved SB&F Prize section: This SB&F Prize pages contain news, information and features about current and past winners of the AAAS/Subaru SB&F Prize for Excellenee in Science Books (see below for more information on the SB&F Prizes). • Multimedia features: The AAAS Book Talks section of the website contains interviews with award-winning ehildren's and young adult seienee book authors. Funded by AAAS’s William T. Golden Endowment Fund for Program Innovation, Book Talks is a podcast featuring the editors of SB&F talking with children's and young adult science book authors and illustrators about what makes a good science book for children, what inspires them to write about science, and what new projects they are working on. • Feature articles on funding opportunities, science fairs, and much more. Another important interrelated program is the AAAS/Subaru SB&F Prizes for Excellence in Science Books. Each year SB&F, in collaboration with Subaru, gives out a series of awards for the best seienee books of the year. Created in 2005, the SB&F Prize celebrates outstanding science writing and illustration for ehildren and young adults. The prizes are meant to encourage the writing and publishing of high quality science books for all age groups. In 2009 these books included the best of Children’s Science Picture Books, Middle Grades Seienee Books, Hands- on Science/Activity Books, and Young Adult Seienee Books. Topics highlighted included a list of 100 steps that ehildren can take to help “save the planet,” a creative exploration of how the human brain works and sibling relationships in the animal world. The 2010 SB&F Prizes were recently handed out at the AAAS Annual Meeting in San Diego. This year’s winners include Living Sunlight: Flow Plants Bring the Earth to Life (children’s science pieture book). The Frog Scientist (middle grades science book). Invisible Kingdom (young adult science book) and Lifetime Achievement Award recipient, Mr. Robert Gardner. Over the past five years the SB&F Prizes have honored many authors with Lifetime Achievement Awards for their distinguishing and lasting eontributions to Spring 2010 4 children’s science literature. For a full list of authors and books honored please visit http://wvvvv.sbfonline.com/Subaru/Paues/PrizesHome.aspx. Become involved SB&F relies on scientists and science educators all over the world, who donate their time and expertise to fill our pages with useful, worthwhile evaluations of science materials. As an SB&F reviewer you are able to choose the area you would like to review, along with the type of materials (books, DVDs, websites and/or software) and the level (K- college and/or general audience). The time commitment is up to you. We ask only that you commit to writing at the very least two reviews per year. If you are interested in hearing more about the benefits and rewards of becoming a reviewer for SB&F, please email Heather Malcomson at hmalcoms@aaas.oru. Washington Academy of Sciences 5 Where’s My Nobel Prize and Other Public Relations Faux Pas Robin E. Stombler Auburn Health Strategies, LLC Abstract Intellectual honesty and smarts, enthusiasm, a commitment to pursue an idea for the long-haul, openness to exploration, and creativity are all important traits for a good scientist to possess. Translating science from the laboratory to commerce requires these same elements. Yet, sometimes scientists stop acting like scientists when they are past the point of discovery. This paper discusses why many scientific ideas and exciting research efforts fail to gamer much public attention. It outlines strategies all scientists may engage in the pursuit of improved public relations. Introduction Take out your laptop, netbook, Blackberry or iPhone. Go ahead. Now, open Google News, or any other popular news search engine. Read the first five stories under Science. Here’s what I found on a rainy January afternoon: Apple and Nokia are in battle over new handsets; NY Times may charge readers for online access; patches needed to fix Internet Explorer 6; Wii and PS3 break sales records; cocaine discovery prompts investigation by NASA; prices drop for Google’s Nexus One. If you scroll down to the 14^^ story, one learns that the US maintains its lead in science and technology discoveries, but other countries are gaining. There is nothing wrong with these headlines. In fact, it’s rather thrilling to recognize the discoveries that have led to the creation of these devices (let’s be clear that I’m not referencing the cocaine outlier), but it begs the question: When it comes to science, is that all there is? No, of course not. Science is knowledge. Knowledge about plants, ecosystems, stars, genes, atoms, water, chemicals, blood, rocks, behavior, lasers, and a million other ideas affecting our world. So why aren’t these ideas and their related exciting research efforts and ultimate discoveries making the front page? Better yet, why does science have such difficulty promoting itself? Spring 20 1 0 6 Sir John Houghton, physicist and 2007 Nobel Prize winner, summed it up, “Your average seientist is not a good PR person beeause he wants to get on with his science.” One of my elients, the chief exeeutive of a company who developed a product that has helped maintain world peaee, discovered a new use for his technology. He was adamant initially that his advisors not speak to a long list of government, academie, and industry experts. Instead, he merely wanted someone to buy his teehnology beeause it was surely the only key to solving one of the world’s pressing problems. His philosophy mirrored Rene Descartes’ “Cogito ergo sum” or “I think, therefore, I am.” Thinking (or in this case, inventing) it, may make it self- evident, but it does not make for good publie relations. When transitioning from seientiflc discovery to promotion, elementary seientifie principles continue to apply. “Scienee is the belief in the ignorance of experts,” a quote attributed to the pioneer of quantum computing, Richard Feynman, applies in publie relations too. To substantiate your scientific discoveries and observations, coneepts and their supporting evidence must be presented and challenged. Public relations assists in this effort to present, build relationships, communicate, and learn. Look at the example of fluoridated water. In the 1930s, Dr. H. Trendley Dean diseovered that fluorine helped prevent dental eavities.' Today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lists water fluoridation as one of the 10 greatest publie health achievements of the 20'*^ century. How did society move from a sole scientific discovery to this epic health advancement? Dr. Dean analyzed water samples, examined teeth, and eonducted epidemiological studies to determine if fluoride safely protected teeth from cavities without further health risks. However, public relations played a role too. Scienee had to move from the laboratory to the community. Efforts to convince colleagues, industry, organizations, and local and state governments to partieipate in this researeh were initiated. For example, the American Dental Association (ADA) sponsored a dental survey of schoolchildren in 1933-1934"; Edward L. Bernays, a pioneer in publie relations, devised a eampaign to convince the publie of lluoride safety; and citizens of two targeted towns were studied to determine the risks and benefits of fluoride in drinking water. By 1945, Grand Rapids, Michigan became the first eity to adjust the fluoride level of its water supply to 1.0 ppm, thus introducing community water fluoridation. Today, the ADA Washington Academy of Sciences 7 supports “unreservedly” the fluoridation of community water supplies as “safe, effective and necessary” in preventing tooth decay.'" The organization also presents a business case that, for most cities, every $1 invested in water fluoridation saves $38 in dental treatment costs. Goals set by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through its Healthy People 2010 aims to increase the percentage of the U.S. population with access to optimally fluoridated community water systems from 62 to 75 percent."'' Yet, fluoridated water is not without its critics and skeptics. Concerns over the relationship between fluoridated water and cancer have long been expressed. A study by the National Toxicology Program showed an increased number of osteosarcomas in rats fed high concentrations of fluoridated water over two years.'' In an oral history interview, Oscar R. Ewing, Administrator of the Federal Security Agency under President Truman, explained some of the controversy of fluoridation, noting that in a speech to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1952 Congressman A.T. Miller insinuated that Ewing, a former attorney representing the Aluminum Company of America, might be benefiting from the sale of fluoride. Ewing noted that flyers were distributed on the streets of New York crying, “Water fluoridation is the most important aspect of the cold war that is being waged on US - chemically - from within, by the Rockefeller-Soviet axis.”''' This was such an effective counter-public relations campaign that, even today, not all U.S. localities have access to fluoridated water systems. Public relations can grasp scientific concepts and utilize them in ways that further promote ideas and revenues. Research by David Sinclair, Rafael de Cabo, and associates at Harvard Medical School and the National Institute on Aging found that resveratrol increases the lifespan of obese mice. Resveratrol prevented most of the negative effects of a high caloric diet in mice.''" Resveratrol, discovered as an antioxidant by Dr. Sinclair, is found in red wine. Although research has not yet established that this molecule will slow down aging and prevent age-related diseases in humans, the interest in red wine as a possible solution increased. The Nielsen Company released data showing that from November 2006, the publication date of the study, through March 2007, sales growth of red wine outpaced sales growth of the all wines by 40 percent.''"' Public relations may fill a void when the lack of knowledge about scientific processes profoundly impacts public policy. In the 1970s, the television show, Quincy M.E., introduced audiences to the work of Spring 2010 8 forensic science. Each week. Dr. Quincy, played by actor Jack Klugman, would find forensic evidence that would inform or contradict how people died. Today, prime time television might be considered a forensic pathologists’ dream. NCIS, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, CSI: Miami, and CSI: New York practically litter the airwaves. This public awareness, even with the many factual scientific liberties taken with fictional programming, helps to propel the understanding and value of this area of science and its implications in natural disasters, the judicial system, and in war. Not surprisingly, however, studies by N.J. Schweitzer and M.J. Saks suggest that these television programs may impact inappropriately the confidence of jurists in real-life trials.'^ In 2009, the National Research Council issued the report. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States, and shared the results with the U.S. Congress. The recommendations to fund and establish “the scientific foundation of the forensic science disciplines, providing better education and training, and requiring certification and accreditation will position the forensic science community to take advantage of current and future scientific advances” were based on suggestions from a diverse group of individuals: law enforcement, federal officials, scientists, medical examiners, professional society executives, standard-setting leaders, and many others.^ The public relations elements intertwined in these examples include the importance of message communication, relationship building, and understanding the ample implications of politics and policy. No matter if the goal is broad {e.g., promote the importance of science) or more defined {e.g., find a market for my widget), public relations strategies are personal. Successful strategies are multi-faceted. Communication According to a 2009 poll by the Pew Research Center and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, scientists are a well-regarded profession. Compared to other popular professions, 70% of the public respondents noted that scientists contributed “a lof’ to society, as opposed to business executives (21%) and lawyers (23%). However, in terms of scientific achievements, only 17% of the public respondents considered the United States the “best in the world. U.S. scientists appear respected, yet the details of their message are not well understood. Communicating science requires the same accuracy and intellectual honesty that scientists require in the laboratory, but it must be Washington Academy of Sciences 9 performed in ways that the public will understand. It is helpful to consider science as a second language. For someone unfamiliar with the “science- tongue,” it may be more understandable to dissect complex concepts and translate using layman’s terms. Oxford University Press posts a list of the 250 most common words used when writing about scientific subjects and suggests gaining a familiarity with them in order to comprehend science texts. The following are a random list of words encountered when discussing various scientific disciplines: interface; synoptic; kinetic; parallax effect; vulcanize; matrix; and vector. What do they mean? Take a look at the word “interface.” According to the Merriam- Webster dictionary, it is a noun used to describe the “surface forming a common boundary of two bodies, spaces or phases.” Today, it is frequently used as a verb to describe a coming together, as in: “our communication programs will be able to interface with each other.” Jeff Han, named one of the world’s 100 most influential people by Time Magazine in 2008, develops multi-touch sensing solutions to enhance the power of computers. In addition to “awesome” and “incredible,” his work has been described as “interface-free.” Without a visual presentation or less-technical language, this concept might be difficult for many people to comprehend. Another example is the use of the word “synoptic” when describing reporting mechanisms. Synoptic generally refers to the broad view at a particular point in time. Synoptic reporting of the weather might mean that it will be snowing across the region at a specific date and time. “Synoptic” is not part of the regular vocabulary for most Americans. The word “summary” might substitute easily for the less common “synoptic.” By using more generic vocabulary substitutions, the audience’s interest is less likely to wane. Using a technical term to describe the same technical term should be avoided. Using the above example, describing how data presented in “synoptic reports” contains “synoptic elements” does not help define the meaning of “synoptic.” Similarly, explaining that “nanotechnology” is science measured in nanometers may limit understanding for this discipline. As certain innovations become more ubiquitous, there is a tendency to use proprietary names to define a topic. For example, instead of asking for a tissue, many people will ask for a Kleenex®, even though Spring 2010 10 there is no preference for brand. Similarly, scientists should avoid using terms like “Photoshop” as a verb to describe how an image is manipulated. Photoshop*^ is a software package produced by Adobe Systems, Inc. The improper use of terms may seem harmless, aside from patent and trademark issues, yet scientists run the risk of diluting the true meaning of their craft. “Vulcanization” is a chemical process used to add properties to certain plastic materials, but Star Trek fans might offer a different definition. Similarly, after a particularly harsh winter in 2010, many people confuse the snowy weather for climate change. If the spring brings pleasant temperatures, will concern over climate change dissipate? Proper communication messages are key. Relationships Relationships are an integral part of the public relations for science. Start with the most basic relationship. Have you described your research to your family, your children, or your most significant other? Do they understand your work well enough to be able to describe it accurately to others? This description should extend beyond the “my mom is a chemist and works in a lab.” What type of research do you do and what are the implications for society? Help your relatives assist in becoming your most outspoken advocates. Beyond family, there are many audiences where scientists should build relationships, including: laboratory, community, political, and business. These contacts require feeding, constant monitoring, and patience. As opportunities present themselves, introduce these audiences to your research. For example, instead of introducing yourself as a cytopathologist, which - as outlined above - requires further definition, explain that you are a physician researching a vaccine for cervical cancer. As relationships develop, the venture capitalist sitting next to you at your child’s baseball game or the banker at the Kiwanis Club where you gave a speech might be more willing to consider providing you with development funds when the time comes. Professional societies are also avenues for expanding your knowledge and relationship base. Signing up for committees, offering to present lectures, and submitting abstracts to conferences will benefit you professionally and introduce you to many potential collaborators, funding sources, and most of all, fans. Washington Academy of Sciences 1 1 In March 2010, Michael • Blanpied, PhD, Associate Program Coordinator for the United States Geological Services Earthquake Hazards Program, answered questions on-line at Washingtonpost.eom about the eauses of recent earthquakes and earthquake foreeasting. He provided easy-to-understand responses to questions posed by individuals from around the world, including an elementary school class in Reston, Virginia. Not only did he impart seientifie knowledge, plug his agency’s website, and raise the presence of geophysics, but he also educated a classroom filled with potential scientists.^" Learning how to beeome a reputable souree of information is also a highly valued relationship skill. Journalists and public policymakers usually do not have a background in science, nor the time to researeh fully every topic presented to them. Of the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, only a handful hold doetorate degrees in a seienee diseipline, ineluding: Vem Ehlers (nuclear physies). Rush Holt, Jr. (physics). Bill Foster (physies), John Olver (chemistry), and Bob Filner (history of science). A few dozen more have a baekground in medicine, mathematics, or undergraduate science degrees, enough to firmly plant scientists in the minority of Congressional oceupations. Legislators and the media value sources that deliver non-biased, accurate information in an understandable manner. Hone these relationships, honor their deadlines and processes, and you will be ealled upon repeatedly to share your knowledge. Understand the Larger World We all have suffered embarrassment at some point in our lives because of misunderstandings. To avoid these mishaps in our professional lives, it is necessary to develop a broader understanding of the world. Simply put, learn about your surroundings so that your science message is eontextual, timely, and accepted. Rebecca Skloot reminds us that science may have eonsequenees of whieh we should be aware. In her novel. The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks, she tells the story of an Afriean-Ameriean woman who traveled to Johns Hopkins Hospital in 1951 to reeeive a diagnosis of an aggressive form of cer^dcal cancer. A small tissue sample was taken from her without her understanding or consent. Ms Lacks died within months of her diagnosis, but those cells lived on and became the first immortal eell line grown in eulture. Known as HeLa, the eells have been vital in advancing medicine and other seientifie discoveries. Several Nobel Prizes have been Spring 2010 12 awarded tor research involving HeLa cells. For decades, the Lacks family was unaware of Henrietta’s standing in medical history and today still struggles with the meaning of it all.^"‘ In 2010, Popular Science named Henrietta Lacks the “Most Important Woman in Medical History, yet bioethical issues are raised as HeLa cells were obtained without consent and the Lacks family did not profit from the multi-billion dollar industry that her cell line produced. In addition to educating others about HeLa cells, the Skloot novel will bring these issues into the public forum. In 1999, the Institute of Medicine released its report. To Err is Human: Building a Safer Health System. The report, the first in a series on quality-of-care concerns, called for a “comprehensive approach to improving patient safety.” To prove its case, the report extrapolated data to discover the following: When extrapolated to the over 33.6 million admissions to U.S. hospitals in 1997, the results of the study in Colorado and Utah imply that at least 44,000 Americans die each year as a result of medical errors. The results of the New York study suggest the number may be as high as 98,000. By the time the report was made available, media headlines screamed that medical errors kill 100,000 Americans every year. While there was a desire among many in the medical community to explain these data correctly, it was more important to recognize the broader issue of improving patient safety. One death from a preventable medical error is one too many. A focus on correcting the safety system should be paramount. Scientists should know how to frame their messages within the context of the larger world. This will help make scientific discoveries and research more relevant to the lay audience. By developing an understanding of society, building relationships, and communicating clearly, scientists and the information they impart will be embraced by the public. Washington Academy of Sciences 13 References ‘ Focus: The Fluoride Story. National Institutes of Health. Available at http://histoi'\ .nih.uov/museum/ediication fluoride.htinl. Accessed February 28, 2010 "Ibid. American Dental Association Positions and Statements. American Dental Association Supports Fluoridation. 2002 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Healthy People 2010. U.S. Government Printing Office, Volume II, second edition. 2000 '' Bucher JR, Hejmancik MR, et al. Results and conclusions of the National Toxicology Program’s Rodent Carcinogenicity Studies with Sodium Fluoride. International Journal of Cancer 1991; 48(5): 733-737 ''' Oral History Interview with Oscar R. Ewing. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. May 1, 1969. Harry S. Truman Library & Museum. Available at www.trumanlibrarv.org/oralhist/ewing3.htm. Accessed February 28, 2010 Baur, JA, Pearson KJ, et al. Resveratrol Improves Health and Survival of Mice on a High-Calorie Diet. Aarwre November 16, 2006; 444: 337-342 The Nielsen Company. Sales of Red Wine Surge on Reports of Health Benefits. April 2, 2007 Schweitzer NJ, Saks MJ. The CSI Effect: Popular Eiction About Forensic Science Affects Public Expectations about Real Forensic Science. Jurimetrics 2007;4:357 National Research Council. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States. 2009: S-15 ^ American Association for the Advancement of Science. Public Praises Science; Scientists Fault Public, Media. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. July 9, 2009 Seismic Science: Is Number of Earthquakes on the Rise? On-line chat with Michael Blanpied. www.washingtonpost.com, March 9, 2010 Skloot R. The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks. In-person author lecture. Washington, DC. February 21, 2010 Five Reasons Henrietta Lacks in the Most Important Woman in Medical History. Popular Science, www.popsci.com. Posted February 5, 2010 Kohn L, Corrigan J, Donaldson M, editors. To Err is Human: Building a Safer Health System. Institute of Medicine. 1999:1 Spring 2010 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 15 From Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying Logics Used in Science ^ Stuart Umpleby The George Washington University Abstract This paper describes the basic features of the theories of complexity and reflexivity, their early history, their evolution, and reactions to date. Although complexity is a major change from previous modeling methods, it does not violate any of the informal fallacies or assumptions underlying the philosophy of science. Reflexivity does. Accepting reflexivity as a legitimate movement in science will require an expansion of the conception of science which still prevails in most fields. A shift from Science One to Science Two is now being discussed. The paper explains what is being proposed. Four Current Models in Science In recent years complexity theory has captured the attention of many people interested in transdisciplinary research. The exeitement surrounding the work at the Santa Fe Institute is an example [Waldrop, 1992]. Current research (which can be traeed baek to the 1960’s) on complexity can be thought of as the working out of ideas related to self- organizing systems. Much more advanced technieal means are now available, and the great accomplishment of the recent research has been the involvement of people from a wide range of diseiplines in using modeling methods, such as cellular automata and genetic algorithms, which are a significant departure from previous methods. Research in reflexivity is less well known. Its origins can be traced back at least to 1974. Several reflexive theories have been proposed, for example by Argyris and Schon, von Foerster, Tefebvre, and Soros. The literatures in second order cybernetics and constructivism are very close to reflexivity, but the term “reflexivity” may appeal to a wider audience. One way to understand how the system sciences are developing is to look at the creation of new methods for conducting inquiry. Presently four models are being used in science. ' Paper presented at the European Meeting on Cybernetics and Systems Research held in Vienna, Austria, April 6-9, 2010. Published in Cybernetics and Systems Research 2010. Edited by R. Trappl. the Austrian Society for Cybernetics Studies, Vienna Spring 2010 16 Linear Causality Linear causality is the way most science has been done and is still being done. It is the way most dissertations are written. It is supported by many statistical techniques, including multiple regression. It has numerous advantages. Hypotheses can be falsified. Propositions can be assigned a level of statistical significance. The objective is to create descriptions which correspond to observations. Circular Causality Circular causality is essential to any regulatory process - a thermostat, an automated assembly line, driving a car, or managing an organization. Circular causal processes can be modeled with causal influence diagrams and system dynamics models. Often a psychological variable is involved, e.g., perception of..., or desire for... Complexity Theory Complexity theory is primarily a method of computer simulation. It is based on cellular automata and genetic algorithms. The “game of life” is a simple example. The basic idea is very general and encompasses competition among species or corporations, also conjectures and refutations in philosophy. There are two processes involved - the creation of new variety and selection of appropriate variety. The combination of these processes explains emergence of new order. Reflexivity Theory Reflexivity theory requires operations on two levels - observing and participating. Reflexivity involves self-reference, hence paradox, hence inconsistency. Reflexivity violates three informal fallacies - circular arguments, the ad hominem fallacy, and the fallacy of accent (referring to two levels of analysis at one time). A Further Explanation of Complexity Theory What is currently called complexity theory can be seen as an extension of the work on self-organizing systems around 1960 [Ashby, 1962; von Foerster, 1962|. There are two processes - differentiation or the creation of new variety and selection of appropriate variety. The first occurs within an organism or organization; the second occurs in the environment. Washington Academy of Sciences 17 The basic structure of thinking underlying sell-organization is not new. Adam Smith [1776j used the idea in The Wealth of Nations when he described the process of innovation and competition among firms or nations. Charles Darwin [1859] used the idea when describing genetic mutation and selection by the environment. Karl Popper [1962] used the idea in philosophy when he described conjectures and refutations as the means whereby science progresses. Some other versions of the idea are B.F. Skinner’s [1938] concept of operant conditioning in that behaviors are reinforced or not by the environment of an organism, thus altering their frequency. Donald T. Campbell [1969] in a famous article, Reforms as Experiments, used the idea when suggesting a strategy of political and social development by inventing and passing social reforms and then observing whether they produce the desired results. The concept of self-organization emerged in the field of cybernetics in the late 1950s. The question then was, as phrased by Ashby [1952], “Can a mechanical chess-player outplay its designer?” Or, stated differently, should an artificial intelligence device be told how to operate or should it learn on its own? Learning on its own was called “self-organization.” Engineers chose to design equipment and created the field of artificial intelligence. Cyberneticians chose to study learning and cognition. Three conferences on self-organization were held in the period 1960 to 1962 [Yovits, Jacobi, and Goldstein, 1962]. The original conception was that a self-organizing system interacted with its environment. Von Foerster [1962] opposed this conception, saying that such a system would be organized by its environment, not by itself He described three thought experiments to explain his conception of “order from noise.” The thought experiments, about magnetic cubes in a box, show that as a system goes toward its equilibria! states, it can produce new combinations of elements. Some of the combinations are interesting. Some are not. For example, some new companies succeed; others fail. The box with the magnetic cubes is open to energy. Shaking the box provides energy. The box is also closed to information. That is, during each experiment the interaction rules among the cubes do not change. For the first two experiments the results are not surprising and are not interesting. In the third experiment new “order” emerges. The idea that life exists at the “edge of chaos” is similar to von Foerster’s three thought experiments concerning magnetic cubes. Furthermore, von Foerster Spring 2010 18 suggested that “redundancy” in Shannon’s [1949] information theory could be used to measure amount of organization. At about the same time Ross Ashby wrote an article Principles of the Self Organizing System. In this article Ashby [1962] noted, “any isolated, determinate, dynamic system obeying unchanging laws will develop organisms that are adapted to their environments.” In Ashby’s conception, organisms and their environments, taken together, constitute the self- organizing system. Imagine a system composed of states. Some states are stable. Some are not. The system will tend to move toward the stable equilibria! states. As it does so, it selects, thereby organizing itself. These selections constitute self-organization. Hence, every system as it goes toward equilibrium organizes itself. As an example of self-organization Ashby described a thought experiment. Imagine that the memory locations in a computer are filled with the single digit numbers 0 to 9. Take any two numbers at random. Multiply them, replace the first number with the right hand digit of the product. Return the second number to its original position. Perform this operation repeatedly. As the interaction rule operates, the evens drive out the odds. An even times an even gives an even; an even times an odd gives an even; and an odd times an odd gives an odd. Furthermore, the zeros drive out their fellow evens. If one applies Shannon’s redundancy measure to the numbers at each point in time, redundancy increases from zero to one. As the system goes to equilibrium, it selects, thereby organizing itself The Use of the Coneept of Self-Organization in Management The principle of self-organization provides a general design rule - in order to change any system, expose it to an environment such that the interaction between the system and its environment moves the system in the desired direction. This conception can explain chemical processes such as making steel from iron ore and coke, educating a child by sending it to school, a manager improving performance by providing incentives, or the government regulating the behavior of businesses. Ashby’s conception of self-organization, that organisms and environments together constitute a self-organizing system, is a very general theory. It encompasses Darwin’s theory of natural selection and learning theory. It emphasizes the selection process rather than the generation of new variety. Von Foerster’s thought experiment explains Washington Academy of Sciences 19 “emergence” because selection at a lower level can lead to new variety at a higher level. The von Foerster and Ashby thought experiments illustrate how emergence of something new and the tendency toward greater entropy occur simultaneously. Ashby’s notion of self-organization requires a new conception of a system, one that is open to energy but closed to information. This idea is different from earlier conceptions of open and closed systems. Often “open” means receptive to new information. “Closed” can mean not open to new information; rigid, unchanging, dogmatic. In physics, entropy increases in thermodynamically closed systems. In biology, living systems are open to matter/energy and information [Miller, 1978]. In management, there was a change from closed conceptions (focusing on processes within a firm) to open conceptions after World War II. Companies were seen as being influenced by government regulation, the civil rights movement, the women’s movement, etc. The concept of self-organization can be used to understand and to design incentive systems, advertising campaigns, and government regulation of business. These are just a few examples of how the concept of self-organization is used every day in business, though the idea is rarely named. Background on Reflexivity Theory There are two possible conceptions of observation. In the first an observer creates a mental model of some object or process that is observed. In the second an observer creates a mental model of himself observing an object or process (See Figure 1). So far science has chosen the first conception. In classical science the objective was to remove the observer from the domain of observation. This was done in an effort to create objective, unbiased observations. Also, including the observer in the domain of observation is an example of self-reference. Self-reference leads to paradox, which is a form of inconsistency. Hence, the second conception of observation leads to ambiguity and uncertainty. However, the second conception is a better description of how a social system works. Spring 2010 20 Figure 1. Not including and including the observer in what is observed People DO reflect on themselves and their interests as well as on what they observe, and they are aware that other people do the same. Indeed a social system seems to contain only reflexive systems (See Figure 2). Figure 2. A social system consists of observing and participating elements The irony is that even though people who live in social systems are very aware of rellexivity (though not the term), the classical conception of science has persuaded social scientists not to pay attention to reflexive phenomena. In their public writings for a general audience social scientists regularly refer to their own thoughts, beliefs, and values and those of, others, but in their scientific writings social scientists search for linear causal relationships among only a few variables. Washington Academy of Sciences 21 Fortunately the subjeet of retlexivity has not been negleeted by seientists entirely. At least four seientists have made important contributions. In a presentation in 1974 Heinz von Foerster argued for including the observer in the domain of science. In 1982 Vladimir Lefebvre created a theory of two systems of ethical cognition and described the choice between them as a process of reflexive control. In 1983 Donald Schon described the activity of management as reflective practice. In 1987 George Soros presented a well-developed theory claiming that individuals, as actors in social systems, engage in both observation and participation. For von Foerster the observer should be included within the domain of science: a theory of biology should be able to explain the existence of theories of biology; “reality” should be seen as a personal construct; and individuals bear ethical responsibility not only for their actions but also for the world as they perceive it, because choices are involved. For Lefebvre there are two systems of ethical cognition; people are “imprinted” with one or the other ethical system at an early age; one’s first response is always to act in accord with the imprinted ethical system; however, one can learn the other ethical system and act in accord with it, when one realizes that the imprinted system is not working. Lefebvre ’s theory was used at the highest levels in both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. during the collapse of the U.S.S.R. in order to prevent misunderstandings. Lefebvre ’s theory was NOT used during the break-up of the former Yugoslavia. People in Sarajevo said in 2004 that Lefebvre’s theory explained both why the war happened and why conflict remained after the war. Lefebvre’s theory can be used in everyday life, not just in strategic studies. Beginning at least by 2000 Lefebvre’s conception of reflexive control was actively being used in education and psychotherapy in Russia. Soros’ theory is compatible with second order cybernetics. Soros uses little of the language of cybernetics. But Soros’ theory provides a link between second order cybernetics and economics, finance, and political science. Soros’ theory is becoming known in the systems and cybernetics community [Umpleby, 2007]. It is attracting more attention from economists and finance professors, due to the recent financial crisis. Soros has a participatory, not a purely descriptive, theory of social systems. Whereas social scientists often avoid the philosophy of science, because they find it inconvenient for their theorizing, Soros is careful to describe the relationship of his theories to the philosophy of science. Specifically, he rejects Popper’s conception of “the unity of method,” the idea that all Spring 2010 22 disciplines, including the social sciences, should use the same methods of inquiry as the natural sciences [Popper, 1961]. Soros says that in social systems there are two processes - observation and participation. The natural sciences require only observation. Which Models are Acceptable? Returning to the four models described at the beginning of this paper — linear causality, circular causality, complexity and reflexivity - we can now ask which models are considered acceptable by the contemporary academic community. Linear causality, the first model, is the dominant conception of science. It is what doctoral students are taught to use when writing dissertations. Circular causality, the second model, was used in first order cybernetics, but it involves circularity, which some people interpret as fallacious reasoning. Complexity, the third model, includes Stephen Wolfram’s [2002] “new kind of science” and the idea of self- organizing systems. Complexity theory uses a new kind of mathematics, but does not violate any informal fallacies. It is easily recognized as “science” by people trained in the physical sciences. Reflexivity, the fourth model, is very close to second order cybernetics. Models 1 and 3 - linear causality and complexity theory - are acceptable. No informal fallacies are violated. Model 2 - circular causality - is suspect. It involves circular reasoning but has proven to be useful. Model 4 - reflexivity - violates three informal fallacies, so is highly suspect. Scientists shun it. They do not take it seriously. Indeed physical scientists seem to have a visceral reaction against it. But the informal fallacies are just “rules of thumb.” Scientists, particularly social scientists, need to ask themselves a question. Should traditions concerning the form of arguments limit the scope of science? Or, should the subject matter of science be guided by curiosity and the desire to construct explanations of phenomena? Cyberneticians have chosen to study certain phenomena, even if they need to use unconventional ideas and methods. The 2008 financial crisis has provided ample evidence that change is needed in our thinking about social systems. But many economists say that no change in theory is needed. Viewed from the perspective of reflexivity theory, economists and other social scientists need to accept the uncertainty that accompanies violating the informal fallacies. Social scientists need to expand the philosophy of science by including the Washington Academy of Sciences 23 observer in the domain of seienee. Eeonomists need a model of economic systems which allows participants to be observers and observers to be participants. This is a large step beyond behavioral economics. F^racticing managers and social scientists will readily agree that human beings are both observers and participants in social systems. Indeed, they say this idea is “not new.” But this perspective is not permitted by the classical conception of science. The conception of science needs to be expanded in order fully to encompass social systems. The Relevance of Reflexivity Theory to Management Idow is reflexivity related to management? How would thinking in terms of reflexivity theory change the way research on management is done? Reflexivity claims that the observer should be included in the domain of observations. The classical philosophy of science claims that the characteristics of the observer should not enter into descriptions. Influenced by the classical philosophy of science, management researchers find data, analyze it, publish papers, and hope that someone will use the new knowledge. According to reflexivity theory, social science should be conducted in such a way that practitioners are researchers and researchers are practitioners [Mitroff and Blankenship, 1973]. If influenced by reflexivity theory, management research would not stop with the generation of a new idea. It would seek to implement the new ideas and then examine the changes that occur as a result. This is an expanded view of science. Whereas Science One meant studying a system and making recommendations (see Figure 3), Science Two means studying a system, formulating ideas, seeking support for the ideas from others, implementing the ideas, analyzing the results of the ideas, and formulating new ideas [Umpleby, 2002]. Of course, both managers and social science researchers do all four steps, at least when they are concerned about having an effect on society. But, previously, part of the process was not considered science. Hence, Science Two is an expansion of classical science (z.e., Science One) when one includes the observer in the domain of observation. This view of management research can be expected to reduce the criticism that much management research is not relevant for managers. Spring 2010 24 Figure 3. Reflexivity theory operates at two levels Conclusion No doubt both complexity theory and reflexivity theory will continue to be developed by their respeetive researeh communities. Complexity theory has advantages in that its use of information technology will attract funding. It includes a new set of simulation tools, whose utility in various fields will be explored. Also, complexity theory is compatible with the classical philosophy of science, so no major rethinking of the philosophy of science is required to adopt it. In eontrast reflexivity theory faces a number of obstacles. Reflexivity theory so far makes little use of computers so will receive less funding. However, system dynamics models can be used to illustrate reflexive processes. The principle obstacle to the widespread acceptance of reflexivity theory is the need to reconsider the philosophy of science and to aecept a higher level of uncertainty in scientific theorizing. The lack of a disciplinary base in universities to train future practitioners in reflexivity theory is also an obstacle. However, the fmaneial crisis and climate change {e.g., the effect of human beings on the environment and the debate over whether there is an effect) illustrate the need for reflexivity theory. And the general progress of the soeial sciences provides a foundation for eventual acceptance. Washington Academy of Sciences 25 References [Ashby, 1952] W. Ross Ashby. “Can a Mechanical Chess Player Outplay its Designer?” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 3, No. 9, May 1952, pp. 44- 57. [Ashby, 1962] W. Ross Ashby. “Principles of the Self-Organizing System.” In Von Foerster and Zopf, editors. Principles of Self-Organization. New York: Pergammon, 1962. [Campbell, 1969] Donald T. Campbell. “Reforms as Experiments.” Reprinted in Methodology and Epistemology for Social Science: Selected Papers by Donald T. Campbell, edited by E. Sam Overman. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988. [Darwin, 1859] Charles Darwin. On the Origin of Species. New York: P. F. Collier, cl909. [Eefebvre, 1982] Vladimir Eefebvre. Algebra of Conscience: A Comparative Analysis of Western and Soviet Ethical Systems. New York: Reidel, 1982. [Miller, 1978] James G. Miller. Living Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978. [Mitroff and Blankenship, 1973] Ian Mitroff and Vaughn Blankenship. “On the Methodology of the Holistic Experiment: An Approach to the Conceptualization of Large-Scale Social Experiments.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 4, Issue 4, April 1973, Pages 339-353. [Popper, 1961] Karl Popper. The Poverty of Historicism. New York: Harper & Row, cl961. [Popper, 1962] Karl Popper. Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. New York: Basic Books, cl 962. [Schon, 1983] Donald A. Schon. The Reflective Practitioner: How Professionals Think in Action. New York: Basic Books, 1983. [Shannon and Weaver, 1949] Claude Shannon and Warren Weaver. The Mathematical Theory of Communication. Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1949. [Skinner, 1938] B.F. Skinner. The Behavior of Organisms: An Experimental Analysis. New York, London, D. Appleton-Century, 1938. [Smith, 1776] Adam Smith. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Edited by Arthur Hugh Jenkins. New York: R.R. Smith, 1948. [Soros, 1987] George Soros. The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market. Chichester: Wiley, 1987. [Umpleby, 2002] Stuart Umpleby. “Should Knowledge of Management be Organized as Theories or as Methods?” in Robert Trappl, editor. Cybernetics and Systems ’02, Austrian Society for Cybernetic Studies, Vienna, Austria. [Umpleby, 2007] Stuart Umpleby. “Reflexivity in Social Systems: The Theories of George Soros,” Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 24, 515-522, 2007. Spring 2010 26 [von Foerster, 1962] Heinz von Foerster. “Self-Organizing Systems and their Environments.” In Yovits and Cameron, editors. Self-Organization. Pergammon Press, 1962. [von Foerster, 1974] Heinz Von Foerster, editor. Cybernetics of Cybernetic. Minneapolis, MN: Future Systems, 1974. [Waldrop, 1992] Mitchell Waldrop. Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos. New York: Touchstone, 1992. [Wolfram, 2002] Stephen Wolfram. A New Kind of Science. Champaign, IL: Wolfram Media, 2002. [Yovits, Jacobi and Goldstein, 1962] Marshall Yovits, George Jacobi and Gordon Goldstein, editors. Self-Organizing Systems 1962. Washington, DC; Spartan Books, 1962. Washington Academy of Sciences 27 Science is Murder Washington Academy of Sciences December 17, 2009 Minutes [Ron Hietala, the Recording Secretary for the Philosophical Society of Washington (PhilSoc), graciously agreed to take the ‘"minutes” of the Academy’s Science is Murder event. You can find PhilSoc at www.philsoc.oriz/: check out their Lecture series, where you can listen to Ron work his magic.] Peg Kay, Executive Director of the Washington Academy of Sciences, welcomed the participants to the Program, "Science is Murder," at 7:10PM December 17, 2009. She: - invited people to apply to join the Academy, - offered copies of the Academy Journal to participants and the audience, and - announced the Biennial Capital Science Conference, the premier conference of its kind in the Washington area, where about 20 of the Academy's 60+ affiliates give presentations and strut their stuff. This year, the Academy will be joined by PBS, who will give a program on "Growing up with Science at PBS." More information is available at wwvv.washaeadsci.org . Ms Kay introduced the following persons [some of them dignitaries, some of them unpaid volunteers; your recording secretary is too polite to say which]: - Dr. Kiki Ikossi, President, Washington Academy of Sciences - Dr. Mark Holland, President-elect of the Academy - Dr. Ron Hietala, Recording Secretary - Kathy Harig, Owner of Mystery Loves Company Bookstore, Oxford, Maryland. John French, who was to be the moderator, was moved to the panel so he could talk about his book, [laughter] Ms Harig owns the oniy store speciaiizing in mystery from New York to Florida. She wrote Libraries, the Military and Civilian Life. She has a radio show and writes a monthly newsletter. More information is available at http://wwvv.mvstervlovescompanv.com/ Ms Harig thanked Ms. Kay for originating the idea and hosting the event. She noted that the Philadelphia Academy of Sciences is doing a copycat event in January. She introduced the panelists: - Donna Andrews, author of two award-winning series of books. Spring 2010 28 featuring Turing Hopper and Meg Lanslow. - John French, supervisor of the Baltimore Police Department CSI unit. He writes crime and mystery fiction and books on crime scene investigation for specialists. He also recently produced a set of books for children on crime scene investigation. — Lawrence Goldstone, author, with wife, Nancy, of The Friar and the Cipher, Out of the Flames, and four books about their passion, book collecting. Tonight he will be discussing The Anatomy of Deception. — Katherine Neville, author of four best-selling works of fiction. The Fire, The Eight, The Magic Circle, and A Calculated Risk. Ms. Neville was a vice-president of the World Bank, installed computer systems, and worked in the energy field. The Q & A session then began: Ms Harig: When writing about science for the general public, how much detail is too much? Mr. French: 1 don't worry too much about it. 1 want to get it right. 1 want to entertain. 1 don't want to teach. 1 give the reader some credit. [I assume they] know what DNA is, what fingerprints are, what CSI means. If something comes up that they might not understand, I have my character, a crime scene investigator, explain it, for example, to a police officer. The police do not necessarily know how you would use molybdenum disulfide on a crime scene. As a reader of crime fiction, I want to be entertained; I don't want to feel like I am reading a textbook. Mr. Goldstone: I've done a lot of nonfiction. My agent told me when I was starting out, readers like to learn. You don't want to overwhelm. I write historical stuff For me, it is teaching about a period, it's being evocative, it's leading the reader to a certain place. If it weighs a ton, it won't work for anybody. It's using detail, it's the trail of bread crumbs, part of it is plot, part of it is character, part of it is setting, part of it is the detail that you put in about science or whatever is the setting of the book. Ms Andrews: When I began my series about Turing Hopper, it arose out of my realization that computers permeate our lives, but many people don't know anything about them, actually fear them. Turing has one characteristic like Nero Wolfe, which 1 still reread. Wolfe never, almost never, left the brownstone. Archie Goodwin brings back the clues. I looked for something that has tendrils that address the intersection of computers with our daily lives, because if it doesn't have a cyber aspect. Washington Academy of Sciences 29 Turing cannot address it. I hit upon ideas like an on-line role playing game. Another book involves credit eard fraud; another, a spammer. But 1 don't get very specific about computer seience because that changes so fast that the details would be out of date by the time they are published. 1 have a group of techies who read for me to see that things are accurate. For level, I use my mother, who is 87. 1 write it so she can understand it. Katherine Neville: Does everybody know who Turing and Hopper are? Ms Andrews: Alan Turing, the artificial intelligence theorist and cryptographer, and Grace Hopper, the Navy computer [pioneer]. Ms Neville: I always ask that, because when I was in the computer business, that was my code name, Grace Hopper. About question of detail, we have a motto in the author biz, "When in doubt, leave it out." If you don't need information to advance the plot or develop a character, it does not belong in the book. However, having said that, I feel that nothing is excess for me. I use no forensics, no courtrooms, nothing like an autopsy, not even a fingerprint. I use historical characters and events. I use real seientists who were dealing with such things as the OPEC embargo and alchemy. I love the part where seienee is born in someone's minds. I use direet quotes, for example from John Maynard Keynes, who went around and bought up Sir Isaae Newton's papers after Cambridge University had gotten rid of them because of their embarrassment that Newton had spent 85% of his time on alchemy and other pursuits, like measuring King Solomon's temple. Keynes presented the papers to Cambridge in a formal ceremony, so they couldn't give them away again. In that ceremony, he gave a touehing speech in which he quoted Newton, saying he thought God had left clues scattered around the universe for the scientific mind to pick up. It was like a giant puzzle. That's the kind of thing I like to communicate. I put a little scientific detail in to bring their character alive, but I always take it right out of their own notes and papers and the like. Nothing in excess, but if it helps develop the characters, it works. Ms Harig: Lawrenee, you have an interesting take on a very important topic. Tell us about it. Your young medical student comes to Philadelphia and finds the body of a woman. There is doubt about whether she was murdered or not. Your tale takes readers through really interesting places in Philadelphia. Tell us how you came across the story, why you chose it, and were there things that surprised you? Spring 2010 30 Mr. Goldstone: How I came across it was kind of interesting. My wife, Nancy, and I had done three funny memoirs on people who collect old books. Our agent suggested we do a “single subject.” We'd seen a movie called The Red Violin about a violin that was passed down through history. The owners were really interesting. We said, “Let's find a book that's been passed down through history.” We called a lot of book dealers that we know, and nobody knew of the book we wanted. Finally, a librarian, Miriam Mandelbaum, in the New York Library rare book room said, well, 1 don't really know a book like that, but [she] suggested a book written by Michael Servitus, who was burned at the stake in 1553 with the last copy of his book chained to his leg. After a fast drive into New York, she showed us the story. That led to a library at Yale, where we found material from the library of William Osier. We got fascinated with Osier, who was one of the great physicians at the turn of the century (1900). I had a deeply disappointing result of the publication of a book on constitutional history, and Nancy suggested I write a historical mystery using Osier. Back in that library at Yale, we found material on Osier and William Stewart Halstead, one of the founders of Johns Hopkins and probably the greatest surgeon in American history. Both Osier and Halstead are characters in Anatomy of Deception, and both are drawn very close to the originals, although they don't behave just as Osier and Halstead did. Ms Harig: Another surprise for me in your writing was that, at one time, autopsies were extremely rare? Mr. Goldstone: Autopsies were done, but they had to be authorized, and they rarely were in the 1800's. When they were done, there was public outrage. In the second century, in Rome, Galen wrote a book on anatomy, and it was based mostly on monkeys, goats, dogs, and the like. People believed that if you opened the bodies, the spirits would come out. In 1 889, we had not progressed far. The autopsy in Anatomy of Deception was taken right from Osier's notes. The Medical Historical Library at Yale has an incredible collection of material, and I just took one of Osier's autopsies and put it right in the book. Between 1882 and 1900, [in that short time] autopsy changed from something considered socially very unpleasant to a very ordinary part of forensics. Ms Harig: John, some of your writings involve a character named Mathew Grace. He is a very interesting character. He goes from CSI to ex-CSI, to PI, and back to CSI. Washington Academy of Sciences 31 Mr. French: Mathew Grace got his start as a private eye. Me initially appeared in a small magazine called Hard Boiled^ he was an ex-CSI who solved a crime as a private eye. When I came up with an idea for a police procedural story, I decided to use Mathew Grace, and I placed this new story before the stories that had already been published, so he could still be a CSI. In Past Sins, Mathew Grace was like Watson. Unlike what you see on television, crime lab technicians do not solve crimes. They analyze evidence. Police detectives put all the evidence together, solve the crimes, and go out and make the arrests. So Mathew Grace serves as the person who tells the story. He talks to the detectives and, in the end, he goes into a room where the case is presented. As the story goes on, he gets a little too clever, too cocky, and has to leave the department. He becomes a private eye. Even there, his point of view does not reflect the experience of a police detective, because he never was one, so he solves them as a private party. One of Kathy's questions to me earlier was do you get locked room mysteries on crime scenes. You do, though not so much in murders. Very little from murders gets translated into fiction. In Baltimore, crime scene investigators respond to burglaries, and more often we deal with a locked house than a locked room. I've had cases where people “slipped” the lock, where people reached through the mail slot. I've had cases in apartments where people came through the crawl space, into the closet, went through some shoe boxes, and left by the front door. In one particularly interesting one, it appeared that the criminal apparently went into a locked apartment, took out the vanity mirror, pushed the vanity mirror out of the second apartment, and went through. It would probably not have been solved, but we found the fingerprints of the owner of the first apartment on the back of the vanity mirror of the second apartment. The owner had burglarized his next door neighbor. Ms Harig: Katherine, in your latest work, The Fire, you go through various symbolisms about the fire. Tell us how you came up with that as the image for the sequel to The Eight. Ms Neville: First, The Eight was a story about a fabulous gold and silver chess set that belonged to Charlemagne. Dug up in the French Revolution, it had mysterious power. It was scattered all over the world to prevent people from gaining those powers. I had forgotten, actually, that it had been revealed at the end of The Eight that it had been created by a real scientist, A1 Jabir ibn Hayan, the father of Islamic alchemy. One of Jabir's Spring 2010 32 books, The Books of the Balance, I have in my library. Every single thing in alchemieal scienee has to do with fire. They used fire to transmute ehemicals. In The Fire, each thing that happens begins with one of the stages of alchemy. Coincidentally, halfway through writing the book, I realized the modern part of the book is set in April, 2003. It was set then because that was the birthday of the heroine's mother in the first book, and it happens to be the exact time the U.S. military entered Baghdad. Ms Harig: We can't leave this subject without hearing about the signing story. Ms Neville: Ah, yes, the signing story. Well, in the first book, the heroine, as a child was about to be the youngest grandmaster in history. When she was about 20, she could not play chess any more, for reasons 1 cannot reveal. She became an apprentice to a Basque chef in a restaurant called Cady’s Alley. It was billed in the book as the world's only four-star, open- hearth restaurant. This was a restaurant I had invented, in a real, nameless alley saturated with garbage and winos' urine. When I submitted the book, the alley had been cleaned up by a friend of mine who had opened a restaurant there. I and my editor went there for lunch, and the proprietor, Karl, said, "You've got to see what I've done." He took us next door, and he had removed some finishing walls and there, in the original brick, was the open hearth. My editor said, "Karl, do you know what you have done? You have recreated the restaurant Katherine invented in her book." So I called Random House and asked them to do the launch party in that restaurant. The alley has now been renamed to "Cady's Alley." Ms Harig: Donna, in your computer books, you have an artificial intelligence, called Turing Hopper. You've gone through various plots, one involving computer fraud, you had a hit-and-run; is there anything you can't comprehend doing with her? Ms Andrews: It is a challenge. When I came up with Turing, Malice Domestic had a contest, the Pro-Am Contest. It's for the traditional, corny, Agatha Christie type of mystery. For it, I came up with the idea of having the computer be the detective. In the first draft, there was no action or dialogue. It was a challenge to figure out how to bring the outside world into the computer and the computer into the outside world. Turing speaks in the first person, because I wanted her to be more real than the humans, almost. I actually put in a chase scene, two of them, in which Turing participated: one of them through the cameras and the other in a plot scene. Washington Academy of Sciences 33 Ms Harig: In one of your other books, we meet a bankrupt zookeeper who has to foster his eharges out into the eommunity. I understand that was based on reality, too. Ms Andrews: Yes. The genesis of a book for me is a kind of a random process of things coming together. I wanted to use penguins. I was at the Omaha zoo. Near the penguin cage, I heard a child's voice, "Mommy, look, the penguins are fighting." It was May. You can imagine what the penguins were doing. We watched the mating dance, these funny, slippery, round little creatures. Ms. Andrews imitated the sounds of the happy penguins. [Your recording secretary cannot; for that, you will have to visit a zoo with penguins in May.] It hit me; I don't have to take them to Antarctica, we can have a zoo. Then I saw some footage of Hurricane Katrina, where they had taken some animals to higher ground. They were taking the wolves for walks on leashes and the bears were swimming in the pool. I thought, ‘T want to do that.” Then, the third thing that helped the concept is that there is a zoo in Reston. [Ms. Andrews lives in Reston, VA.] So we have the character in the book digging a pond in a cool place, his basement, for a displaced penguin from a local bankrupt zoo, and finding the body. Ms Neville: This is how literary minds work, from penguins humping each other at a zoo to bodies in the basement. Ms Harig: I think our audience would be interested in the background behind designer farm animals. Ms Andrews: I had gone to a farm and seen Belted Galloways, black cows with white belts around the middle. Kathy took me to a place where they had goats chosen to look like the cows; at first I thought they were calves. From the owner, Kathy found out these were Belted Tennessee Fainting Goats. They have a genetic defect. They don't actually faint, but when they are startled, their legs stiffen and they may keel over. One owner said that if he gave them a particularly good feed, they would keel over in ecstasy. [Amid the laughter, Ms. Andrews insisted this is a serious condition.] The breed of these goats was preserved by shepherds, who put some of them in with sheep. If wolves chase the flock, they catch the goats. So they only survive because they are scapegoats. Ms Harig: Now tell us about the designer farm. Ms Andrews: Oh, yes. Martha Stewart has a farm where all the decor, including the animals, were black, white, and gray. [You can't make this stuff up.] She even had black Friesian horses, which were not allowed out Spring 2010 34 in daytime because they would sunburn to a rusty red and not fit the decor. So the main plot in the book, the "McGuffm," as writers call it, is a rose competition in which the challenge is to develop a rose that is as near as possible to a perfect black. [An impertinent woman in the audience asked, "Could you kill off Martha Stewart? "] Ms Andrews: The woman who owned the farm that hosted the Rose Contest made Martha look nice. Ms Harig: Lawrence, you've had some people making some dicey decisions in your book. 1 understand that was based on research. Tell us about that, and how you did the research. Mr. Goldstone: Medical ethics and scientific ethics are interesting. The question is, are you going to save people if the cost is killing others. Medical ethics is more interesting because the effects are immediate. After you do enough research, you understand that with human progress, there is always this cost. In medicine, you are faced with the possibility of saving many people but at the risk of [endangering] people in the process. 1 took the real people in the book and studied what they wrote about and what they did. When 1 write fiction, I know I'm on when 1 can just kind of report. In nonfiction, you are restricted by what people said and did (though not everyone feels that way). In Osier's case and in Halstead's case, and in medicine as Johns Hopkins was being founded, it really was a fulcrum of Civil War medicine; cut off a lot of parts and see who survived. By 1910, medicine had become very advanced. It was people who faced these ethical issues that moved medicine forward. It was a lot of fun, trying to put myself into their minds and bodies and see how they would do it, not how I would do it, but how they would do it with me sort of pulling the strings. The characters really do speak to you. When you are writing well, the characters will tell you what to do. If you try to shoehorn [yourself] in, you will become very wealthy and your name is Dan Brown (author of The Da Vinci Code). Ms Harig: Katherine, your characters have a lot of your own character and experience, banking, finance, and so on. Ms Neville: First, I must address what Lawrence said. Everything he said is the theme of every book I have written. What should we do with scientific knowledge that could either be beneficial or dangerous? When I had worked at Bank of America two weeks, I had figured out how to steal a billion dollars from the banking system through wire transfers. I told a Washington Academy of Sciences 35 colleague, 1 have figured this out, would it work? He called me back and said it does. He added some bells and whistles. In 1992, when Calculated Risk eame out, the BCCI banking scandal was breaking, so, instead of the usual promotion circuit, I was on the morning news. People were calling me, writing me notes: Dear Ms. Neville, what can we do to save the banking system. I said, “They used to pay me to tell them that, but they never took my advice.” Ms Harig: Well, thank you, you have been a wonderful panel. Do we have any questions from the audience? Audience member: Does anybody use stickies? How do you do that? On a wall? Ms Neville: I no longer use note cards. I write in my books, and I put stiekies in where I wrote. It turns out that does not upset rare book librarians, who realize that it makes the book more valuable. That kind of thing is going to be the only thing we have left [in the author's own hand] now that everything is on the computer. Ms Andrews: I don't use stickies, but I do create a folder in my computer. I use cyber-stickies. You don't need paper, but you need a couple of hard drives. Audience member: [To Mr. French] Does your Department know what you do? How has your work after hours ehanged what you do? Mr. French: They have been very supportive. They do know what I do. If you go to YouTube and search for my name, you will see a video produced by the Police Department, about what I do on the crime seenes and writing about the crime scenes. They were very supportive of Past Sins and Criminal Investigations as long as I gave them copies. I have not yet told them of an anthology I am now working on called Bad Cop, No Doughnut. I don't think I am going to tell them. I've had some poliee deteetives read Past Sins and tell me they wished the real Baltimore Police Department worked as well as the idealized one I wrote about here. One of my stock devices is to get everybody involved in a ease around a table and knock out ideas. That is not done in reality, but some detectives wish it was. An audience member asked about the ethics of using information that could be used to do harm. Ms Neville: You have to be concerned. I once asked a physieist what is the most important thing a nuclear physicist should study, and he said, ethies. My book on that subject dealt with things that were actually happening Spring 20 1 0 36 when my book came out, so I knew I didn't give away anything. Mr. Goldstone: My next book is set in the 1430's, so I am not worried. Ms Andrews: It is a concern. In one book, I needed an explosion. I found a Navy Seal. He vetted me. "I won't tell you how to do this," he said. I said, "But I want someone like you to tell me only that it can be done." But I don't think mystery writers are giving people any information they can't get on the nightly news. Mr. French: People often ask me, “How would I do this, how would I do that?” If they are at a writer's convention, I assume they are mystery writers and not murderers. They are looking for a critique of how they plan to write it, not a lesson in how it is done. There are some things as a writer that I would love to do, but as a member of a police department, there is no way in hell I can, in good conscience, put on paper and publish. Audience member, to Neville: What's your next project? Ms Neville: I'm going to Santa Fe to do research. It has to do with the invention of oil painting in the 1500's. It revolutionized painting. People no longer had to compete for commissions from churches. Women could paint. Painters could travel. It was very exciting. Audience member, to Andrews: What's your next book? Ms Andrews: All of my books in the "Meg" [Langslow] series have birds in the titles. My next one is going to be Stork Raving Mad. Others were Murder with Puffins, Revenge of the Wrought-iron Flamingos, Crouching Buzzard - Leaping Loon, We'll Always Have Parrots, Owls Well that Ends Well, No Nest for the Wicket, The Penguin Who Knew Too Much, Cockatiels at Seven, Swan for the Money, and Six Geese A-Slaying, my Christmas offering. In Stork Raving Mad, the heroine is 8 1/2 months pregnant with twins. Her husband is a college professor. The heating system at the college breaks and they take in a dozen students. Her husband is up for tenure. The book is all about academic tenure. I have friends who are academics, some seeking tenure, some graduate students. One has had such trouble with her committee, 1 promised to kill off two of the members [on paper). Every time they did something nasty to her, I added a person trying to kill her. The book illustrates the point that academic battles are so bitter because the stakes are so small. Washington Academy of Sciences 37 Mr. Goldstone: After all those titles, I'm embarrassed to say, mine is The Astronomer. It will be out in May. fhere are some academics, a little revenge, but no birds. To a question, "Who's the astronomer?" Goldstone said, "I'm not allowed to tell." You will have to get a copy. Ms Harig invited everyone to look at the books outside and meet with the authors. Folks lined up to have authors sign books. At 8:27 PM, the meeting wrapped up amid chuckles. Spring 2010 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 39 Capital Science 2010 Capital Science is a biennial event presented by the Washington Aeademy of Sciences and its Affiliated Organizations. Each event has improved on the one before it. CapScilO - the fourth such event - was held on the weekend of March 27-28 at the National Science Foundation in Arlington, Virginia. The two plenary sessions were: (1) a panel discussion of Science Policy DebateOS - Where are We Now? which examined the promises made by the presidential candidates in the 120-million strong “Science Policy 08” and reported on the progress and non- progress after two years; and (2) Growing up with Science at PBS conducted by PBS Director of Education, Donelle Blubaugh, who illustrated her talk with film clips from “Curious George” and NOVA. Sponsors for the conference were: AlphaGraphics, Blue Canopy, Donna deMoranville Turgeon, Famous Dave’s, Great Blue Heron Catering, HyoerV Technologies, Eiving Oceans Foundation, Millen, White, Zelano & Branigan, PC, Research [America, Sterling Framing, and Vertech Inc. These conferences provide a close-up view of what is happening in science in the Washington, DC area. There will be several “CapScilO - a sequel” programs throughout the year. Registration is free for all CapScilO registrants. The first such event was “Who Owns the Weather” on April 26. The WAS web site www.washacadsci.oru provides several photos from the conference. We show a selection of these in the Journal. The web site http://ww\v.washacadsci.org/Activities/PhotoArchive/Capitalscience20 10/index.htm contains the plenaries. Spring 2010 40 PHOTOS FROM CAPITAL SCIENCE 2010 James Yorke Catherine With Mary Woolley & Francesca Grifo Washington Academy of Sciences 41 Lunch at CapSci Kiki Ikossi, Gerard Christman, Chuck Davis Jane Lubehenco & A1 Teich Mark Holland with the Salisbury students Spring 2010 42 Eugenie Mielczarek Martin Ogle Frank Flaig, SJ & Doug Witherspoon Washington Academy of Sciences Peg Kay Jay Sanders Spring 2010 Audience at lunch talk Janies Yorke Washington Academy of Sciences 45 Science08-where are we now panel Dinner audience Anh Dao Gene Williams & Mark Holland Spring 2010 46 DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America American/Intemational Association of Dental Research American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section American Fisheries Society American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration American Meteorological Society American Nuclear Society American Phytopathological Society American Society for Cybernetics American Society for Microbiology American Society of Civil Engineers American Society of Mechanical Engineers American Society of Plant Physiology Anthropological Society of Washington ASM International Association for Women in Science (AWIS) Association for Computing Machinery Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation Association of Information Technology Professionals Biological Society of Washington Botanical Society of Washington Chemical Society of Washington District of Columbia Institute of Chemists District of Columbia Psychology Association Eastern Sociological Society Electrochemical Society Entomological Society of Washington Geological Society of Washington Historical Society of Washington, DC Fluman Factors and Ergonomics Society Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington DC Section Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern Va. Section Institute of Food Technologies Institute of Industrial Engineers Instrument Society of America Marine Technology Society Maryland Native Plant Society Mathematical Association of America Medical Society of the District of Columbia Paul Arveson J. Terrell Hoffeld Frank R. Haig, S.J. Ramona Schreiber David W. Brandt Michael Greeley Kenneth Carey Steven Arndt Kenneth L. Deahl Stuart Umpleby VACANT Kimberly Hughes Daniel J. Vavrick Mark Holland Marilyn London Toni Marechaux Jodi Wesemann Kent Miller F. Douglas Witherspoon Barbara Safranek F. Christian Thompson Emanuela Appetiti Jim Zwolenlk Jim Zwolenlk David Williams Ronald W. Mandersheid Robert L. Ruedisueli F. Christian Thompson Bob Schneider VACANT Michael Eidelkind Gerard Christman Murty Polavarapu Isabel Walls Neal F.Schmeidler Hank Hegner Judith T. Krauthamer VACANT Sharon K. Hauge Duane Taylor Washington Academy of Sciences DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES National Capital Astronomers Jay H. Miller National Geographic Society VACANT Optical Society of America Jim Low Pest Science Society of America VACANT Philosophical Society of Washington Peg Kay Society of American Foresters Denise Ingram Society of American Military Engineers VACANT Society of Experimental Biology and Medicine C.R. Creveling Society of Manufacturing Engineers VACANT Soil and Water Conservation Society Bill Boyer Technology Transfer Society Clifford Lanham Virginia Native Plant Society, Potowmack Chapter VACANT Washington Evolutionary Systems Society Jerry L.R. Chandler Washington History of Science Club Albert G. Gluckman Washington Chapter of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Russell R. Vane III Washington Paint Technology Group VACANT Washington Society of Engineers Alvin Reiner Washington Society for the History of Medicine Alain Touwaide Washington Statistical Society Karol Krotki World Future Society Russell Wooten Washington Academy of Sciences 6*^ Floor 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 Return Postage Guaranteed NONPROFIT ORG US POSTAGE PAID MERRIFIELD VA 22081 PERMIT# 888 III I.I...II..II.I..I.mI.II.I..II.m..I.ImI.I.IIm.I.I.I 2*45H***********jy[jx£j) ADC 276 ERNST MAYR LIBRARY HARVARD UNIVERSITY 26 OXEORD ST MUSEUM COMP ZOOLOGY CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138-2902 WAS Volume 96 Number 2 Summer 2010 Journal of the WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF MCZ Ubrary SEP 2 4 2010 harvard UNIVERSITY SCIENCES Editor’s Comments J. Maffucci i Letters to the Editor iii “Human Music” a Theoretical Model of How Music Induces Affect D. Teie 1 A New Perspective on the Early History of the American Society for Cybernetics E. Corona and B. Thomas 21 Air Traffic Controller Workload: Estimating Look-Ahead Conflict Detection Counts N. Coleman and E. Feldman 35 A Digital-Discrete Method For Smooth-Continuous Data Reconstruction L. Chen 47 Outgoing President’s Speech KUd IkossI 67 Incoming President’s Speech Mark Holland 72 Banquet 2010 photos 73 ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC Washington Academy of Sciences Founded in 1898 Board of Managers Elected Officers President Mark Holland President Elect Gerard Christman Treasurer Larry Millstein Secretary James Cole Vice President, Administration Lisa Frehill Vice President, Membership Sethanne Howard Vice President, Junior Academy Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliated Societies E. Eugene Williams Members at Large Denise Ingram Terrell Erickson Frank Haig, S.J. Alianna Maren Daryl Chubin Russell Vane III Past President: Kiki Ikossi Affiliated Society Delegates: Shown on back cover Editor of the Journal Jacqueline Maffucci Associate Editor: Sethanne Howard The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy. It publishes articles on science policy, the history of science, critical reviews, original science research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest to its members. It is published quarterly. The last issue of the year contains a directory of the current membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Members, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal free of charge. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis, payable in advance. Payment must be made in U.S. currency at the following rates. US and Canada $25.00 Other Countries $30.00 Single Copies (when available) $10.00 Claims for Missing Issues Claims must be received within 65 days of mailing. Claims will not be allowed if non- delivery was the result of failure to notify the Academy of a change of address. Notification of Change of Address Address changes should be sent promptly to the Academy Office. Notification should contain both old and new addresses and zip codes. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WAS, 6”^ Floor, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC. 20005 Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Academy Office Washington Academy of Sciences 6"’ Floor 1200 New York Ave NW Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202/326-8975 Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences 202/326-8975 email: was@washacadsci.org website: www.washacadsci.org MC2 UBRARV 1 SEP 2 4 2010 Editor’s Comments Harvard university Since assuming the position of Editor for the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, I have been considering how to improve upon this already wonderfully diverse journal. This issue begins with a new section that I hope to continue in future issues: Letters to the Editor. I foresee this section as a forum for our readers to discuss their research interests. I leave it to the contributors to decide upon the content. However, to get the ideas started, I would encourage short pieces discussing new hypotheses that you might be developing, findings from preliminary studies, commentary in the contribution of new techniques being used in your fields of study, or commentary on new hypotheses/fmdings in your fields. I also foresee this section as a way to encourage young scientists to publish. I would love to have contributions from all age groups! Deadlines for submissions can be found at www.washacadsci.org. For the Fall issue, this deadline is October 15, 2010. Following our Letters to the Editor section, we have a number of great articles for your review. We begin with a fascinating paper by David Teie, a cellist with the National Symphony Orchestra with an interest in the effect of music on emotional states. His love of music led him to pair with Charles T. Snowden of The University of Wisconsin to study the affect of species-specific music on the cotton-top tamarind. He is now collaborating with Jagmeet Kanwal at Georgetown University to test his hypothesis that combination sensitivity is involved in the emotional response to music. In this paper, Mr. Teie discusses his hypothesis, introducing background information surrounding recognition of specific musical elements and resulting emotional responses and the implications of these findings. We then continue a discussion about Cybernetics. Corona and Thomas build on past discussions about Cybernetics by presenting a new perspective on the early development of the American Society for Cybernetics. Here they present a brief historical synopsis of the discipline. The authors then draw on newly archived documents and correspondence among the founders of the Society to revisit the early history of the organization. They end with a commentary on its present day status. Following this, Coleman and Feldman introduce the complex world of air traffic control. Air traffic controllers are faced with Summer 2010 11 monitoring thousands of square miles of airspace daily to insure that the numerous aircrafts occupying that space remain at a safe distance from one another. It is crucial for them to detect and resolve conflicts that arise between any two aircrafts as they traverse their routes in any given moment in time. This paper introduces a new linear programming model and offers evidence that it more efficiently detects potential conflicts between aircrafts. In the final article of this issue, Li Chen introduces a newly designed systematic digital-discrete method for smooth-continuous data reconstruction. He provides evidence for its advantages over existing models, and demonstrates functional uses for this new application. We end this issue with highlights from the WAS Annual Awards Banquet held in May. The banquet was held in the Atrium of the Meadowlark Botanical Gardens, a beautiful venue to congratulate the WAS Award Recipients and meet our new officers. Included in the highlights are speeches from the outgoing WAS President, Kiki Ikossi, and the incoming WAS President, Mark Holland. We follow that with photos from the evening. With that, I leave you to enjoy this latest issue. I look forward to your Letters to the Editor submission. Enjoy the rest of the summer and weTl see you in the Fall! Jackie Maffucci Editor, The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences Washington Academy of Sciences Ill Letters to the Editor From : Alianna J. Maren President and Chief Scientist, Themis Enterprises Complexity and Graph Theory: A Brief Note Santo Fortunato (2010) will publish an interesting and densely rich article, “Community Detection in Graphs,” in the coming journal of Com/7/exz/y (July-August, 2010; Inter-Wiley). This article is over 100 pages long; it is relatively complete, with numerous references and excellent figures. Fortunato makes fascinating points about communities (clusters) within graphs, and describes leading algorithms in a way that is both clear and expostulatory. This article provides an excellent introduction and overview of graph clustering methods. It is a bit surprising, however, that this extensive discussion misses one of the things that would seem to be most important in discussing graphs, and particularly, clusters within graphs: the stability of these clusters. That is, the theoretical basis for cluster stability. Yedidia et al. (2003), in “Understanding Belief Propagation,” make the point that there is a close connection between Belief Propagation (BP) and the Bethe approximation of statistical physics. This suggests that there is a way to construct new message-passing algorithms. In particular, more general approaches to the work undertaken by Bethe ’s approximation, namely the Cluster Variation Method (CVM) introduced by Kikuchi and later by Kikuchi and Brush (1967), generalize the Bethe approximation. In essence, the free energy is minimized across not only distribution between simple “on” and “off’ states, but also across the distribution of physical clusters. This expansion of the entropy concept into cluster distribution (across the available types of clusters) is important. Free energy minimization provides a natural and intuitive means for determining “equilibrium,” or at least, “reasonably stationary” system states. These would correspond to natural evolutions of communities, which can be interpreted as clusters. Pelizzola (2005), in “Cluster Variation Method in Statistical Physics and Probabilistic Graphical Models,” points out that graph theory subsumes * Taken from http://aliannaJmaren.blogspot.com Summer 2010 IV CVM and other approximation methods. This makes graph theory the nexus at which the CVM methods, belief inference, and community- formation “connect.” Or perhaps, they form an interesting “graph community.” References Fortunato, S. (Jan, 2010), “Community Detection in Graphs,” Physics Reports, 486, 75-174. Online as: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0906/0906.0612v2.pdf Yedidia, J.S.; Freeman, W.T.; Weiss, Y. (2003), “Understanding Belief Propagation and Its Generalizations”, Exploring Artificial Intelligence in the New Millennium, ISBN 1558608117, Chap. 8, 239-236, January 2003 (Science & Technology Books). Online as: http://www.merl.eom/reports/docs/TR2001-22.pdf Kikuchi, R., & Brush, S.G. (1967), “Improvement of the Cluster - Variation Method,” J. Chem. Phys. 47, 195. Online as: http://jcp.aip.Org/jcpsa6/v47/i 1/p 1 95_s 1 ?isAuthorized=no Pelizzola, A. (2005), “Cluster variation method in statistical physics and probabilistic graphical models,” J. Physics A: Mathematical & General, 38 (33) R308. Online as: http://iopscience.iop.org/0305-4470/38/33/R01/ Washington Academy of Sciences “Human Music” A Theoretical Model of How Music Induces Affect David Teie University of Maryland School of Music, College Park Abstract A variety of musical elements including compositional techniques, instrument modifications, and performance practices were incrementally introduced over the centuries of the development of music. 1 examined these elements and found that each can be logically linked to recognition that is capable of triggering a neurochemical response. If the musical elements and their respective recognition responses can be organized into a theoretical model, it could increase our understanding of music’s ability to induce affective states in listeners. This theory proposes that: 1) the auditory system is predisposed to efficiently and clearly process certain types of sounds, such as those resembling the human voice, and that most musical instruments create sounds that benefit from this clear processing, 2) each element in music induces an independent emotional response by presenting an acoustic stimulus that is a match for a preexisting template of recognition, 3) as these elements are presented in music, concurrently and consecutively, the recognition triggers appropriate emotional, neurochemical responses, and 4) the accumulation of neurochemical reactions from the recognition responses is the cornerstone of emotional response to music. For the purposes of this presentation “emotional response” refers to any stimulation of the brain structures responsible for our emotions, this includes the barely perceptible reaction to pattern recognition, as well as the more obvious responses commonly associated with emotion. Plausible explanations are given for the recognition of and emotional responses to the following elements of music: pulse, tempo of pulse, amplitude contour of pulse, tactile reception of pulse, meter, notes, syllabic contour, melodic rhythm, melodic accents, phrase length, phrase contour, continuity, melodic frequency range, resonance-enhanced periodic sound, timbre, tonality, frequency range, melodic contour, melodic rhythm, accents of melody, loudness, rate of syllabic repetition, vocal tract variables, key modulations, tempo range, pattern, chaotic movement, directed movement, perfect movement, harmony, counterpoint, compositional structure, phrase structure, and anticipation. The origins of these elements can be classified into four categories. The first two categories involve responses triggered by auditory processing and recognition: 1) limbic system development and 2) emotionally generated vocalizations. The other two categories trigger responses that have been exapted by music: 3) linguistic processing and 4) visuospatial processing. Summer 2010 One published and two unpublished experiments have shown that applications based on the limbic system development and emotionally generated vocalization components of this theory (with appropriate adjustments for other species) have led to effective species-specific music (Snowdon & Teie, 2010). There may be a constant set of principles to be derived from human music that can be applied to music for many mammalian species. The musical analysis of animal communication needed to create this music also shows promise of providing a greater understanding of animal communication. Background Some authors {e.g. Levitin, 2009) argue that music is one of the best forms of emotional communication known and the musical components of speech (known as prosody) provide honest emotional signals. Despite the limited data on musical abilities in nonhuman species, there has been great interest in the structure of signals that communicate emotional state in nonhuman species. Morton (Morton, 1977; Owings & Morton, 1998) has argued that high-pitched, pure-tone sounds are common to friendly or appeasing contexts whereas low, loud, noisy (broadband) sounds are common to expressions of threats and aggression. Going beyond prosody, musical structure affects the behavior and physiology of humans. Infants as young as two months old spend more time looking at a speaker that provided consonant compared with dissonant music (Zentner & Kagan, 1996; Trainor, Chang & Cheung, 2002) and after hearing dissonant music, it was difficult for infants to attend subsequently to consonant music. Studies on the effects of music on emotions showed that for adults certain types of classical music so called “high-uplifting” music such as Kreisler’s Liebesfreud or Satie’s Picadilly led to increased activity, reduced depression and increased norepinephrine levels. Alternatively, “low-uplifting music,” such as AXb'mom' ^ Adagio for Strings and Organ or Satie’s Gnossiennes No 4, led to an increased sense of well-being (Hirokawa & Ohira, 2003). While there are convincing theories that explain certain responses to music such as anticipation (Huron, 2006) there is no generally accepted alternative theory of the origins and affective processes of music. Although the neural pathways and emotional responses of many musical elements have been identified, such as the fear response to dissonance, the reasons for those responses have been elusive. Why should we have an innate fear response to dissonance? Washington Academy of Sciences 3 “Human Music:” a Theory of the Origins and Affective Processes of Music I designed species-specific music to test the validity of the theory of “Human Music.” This theoretical model recognizes that music, as we know it, is a human construct made by and for humans based on our development, vocalizations, and perceptions. I predicted that by modifying musical characteristics to conform to the development, vocalizations, and perceptions of another species, I could create music that would elicit appropriate behavioral responses from members of that species. I have used the conventional analytical process of disassembly and examination in an attempt to find a logical connection between each separately identifiable element of music and the emotional response that it triggers. Under the umbrella of “Human Music” are four categories of affective responses to individual characteristics of music and five ancillary theories that provide possible frameworks for the understanding of: musical climaxes (see section - Accumulated Responses); the development of music (see section - Affectively Selected Organization); the ability of music to retain affective responses with repeated hearings (see section - Habituation); why music often presents concurrent stimuli (see section - Combined Stimuli); and a proposed axis of perception that governs mammalian vocal communication and music (see section - Chaos/Order). The first three categories of this theory (Limbic System Development Memory, Emotional Vocalizations, Sympathetic Arousal of Affective States Through Vocalizations) represent interpretations of existing empirical research. The last six categories are largely hypothetical and lack empirical data. They are proposed as logical and plausible explanations that may be worthy of investigation. These theories are not intended to supplant or contradict extant theories such as those regarding expectation or linguistics, but should be seen as possible additional mechanisms that elicit emotional responses. Outline of ^^Human Music** Theory “Human Music” is a collection of theories relating to the origins and development of music and our affective responses to it. The theories are consistent with existing research and are intended to provide plausible connections between brain development and responses to music. The overriding premise common to all of the constituent theories and hypotheses is that music presents, concurrently and consecutively, an array of acoustic stimuli that are each capable of inducing an emotional Summer 2010 4 response. Even a simple example of a single instrument playing a single-line 14 second melody may present eight different acoustic triggers. Listening to music may be compared to viewing a series of rapidly alternating pictures that induce fear, affection, excitement, and tranquility. The accumulation of neurochemical responses to these independently identifiable auditory stimuli creates the enhanced emotional state induced by music. The human auditory system provides particularly clear processing of certain types of sounds, such as the sound of the human voice. These stable auditory images are compared to templates of recognition and, when matches are identified, appropriate emotional responses are triggered. I propose that music presents patterns of sounds that are given priority status in primary auditory processing and are close enough to matching some of the acoustic templates of recognition to trigger emotional responses. Of the templates that musical elements resemble, some are innate, such as the sound of a human scream, and others are formed by the sounds heard by the fetus in the womb when the fetal brain structures are plastic and being organized. I submit that only those musical elements and modifications that induced emotional responses were adopted into general usage and are examined below. The origins of these elements can be classified into four categories: 1) limbic system development: the maternal respiratory and vocal sounds heard by the fetus that inform the development of the brain structures responsible for emotions, 2) emotionally generated vocalizations: the acoustic characteristics of these vocalizations define conspecific templates of recognition, 3) linguistic processing: recognition responses to a variety of speech characteristics provide a basis for musical adaptation, and 4) visuospatial processing: when music is perceived visuospatially it may trigger emotional responses to movement. There is some redundancy in these categories due to the inclusion in linguistic processing of characteristics that are found in emotionally generated vocalizations such as a loud, high-pitched sound of a scream used in an utterance of warning. Washington Academy of Sciences 5 Limbic System Development Memory This category includes those elements of music that are most universal. It includes musical representations of sounds that are heard during the time when the limbic structures are formed in the developing brain. The following conditions allow for the formation of lasting fetal acoustic memories. The human fetus is able to hear at 24 weeks, providing 4 months of constant sound exposure (Birnholz & Benacerraf 1983) prior to birth. The sound of the maternal heartbeat is 25 db above basal noise, dominating the fetal environment (Querleu et al, 1988). The maternal voice is heard in the uterus nearly four times more strongly than it is heard externally (Richards et al, 1992). In utero research and analysis has shown consistent evidence that the fetus responds to the sound of the mother's heartbeat (Porcaro et al, 2006). The combination of three features of human fetal development make it possible for the sounds of the womb to provide a lasting template of recognition: 1) the dearth of competing sensory information in the fetal environment allows sound to be a primary source of varied and ever-present information entering the developing brain, 2) well-organized information that is incoming when a brain structure is plastic will tend to remain organized in the brain, and 3) the limbic structures are almost completely formed at birth (Huang et al, 2006). A logical conclusion to the summed effects is that the structures of the limbic system may remember and later respond to sounds that resemble those of the fetal environment. In light of anatomical studies that have emphasized the interconnections between ventral limbic circuits and the motor control loops between striatum and motor cortex (Gunnar & Nelson, 1992), I propose that the acoustic information that pervaded the development of structures responsible for our emotions as well as structures near the brainstem responsible for repetitive movement is the source and origin of pulse, meter, and rhythm in music. McDermott (2008) identified several universal properties of music: pulse, hierarchal organization of scales (tonality), infant-directed song, dance, and meter. To McDermott’s list I would add: amplitude contour of pulse instrument, use of resonator-enhanced periodic sounds, prevalence of discrete single-frequency units (musical notes), varied pitches and rhythms in the melodies (prosody), continuity, and the 200-900 Hz frequency range of melodic instruments. All of these universal features of music can be traced to the fetal acoustic environment that informed the developing structures of the limbic system. Summer 2010 6 Below are brief descriptions of the recognition responses to elements of music that are bom of limbic system development: A regular and repeated Pulse (pulse is understood as the regular, underlying beat that defines the meter) is one of the universal traits of music even though it is not found in human vocalizations. The repetition rates of musical pulses (40-240 beats per minute) coincide with the slowest (respiration) and fastest (footfalls of running) pulses that can be heard in the womb. Instmments that create amplitude contours that resemble that of a heartbeat (z.e., the pedal dmm) commonly keep the musical pulse. The construction of a drum enables it to create a heartbeat-like amplitude contour of the pulse instrument. Drums have been similarly constructed in many different cultures. The onset of sound is graduated by a cushioned beater, a stretched animal skin, or both. The decay of sound is elongated with a resonating chamber. The graduated onset and elongated decay of a pedal drum creates an amplitude contour that resembles that of the heartbeat as heard in the womb (onset .02s, decay .06s). The introduction of high-level amplification in the 1960s enabled tactile reception of the musical beats. The proximity of the fetus to the maternal heart allows the heartbeat to be felt as well as heard, providing the recognition that makes amplification desirable. Meter is a repeated pattern of strong and weak beats. The combinations of strong and weak pulses found in the primary meters are derived from the sounds of respiration combined with the sound of the heartbeat. Strong - weak is known as duple meter; the meter 1 strongest - 2 weak - 3 strong - 4 weak is known as “common time” in Western music. When respiration and heartbeat are combined (1 inhalation + heartbeat, 2 heartbeat alone, 3 exhalation + heartbeat, 4 heartbeat alone) the result is common time that is consistent with normal human heart and respiratory rates (four heartbeats/respiratory cycle). The prevailing duality of pulse in Western music is the same duality found in the human rhythms of heartbeats, breathing, and walking. The triple meter: 1 strong - 2 weak - 3 weaker is formed when a weak beat is placed in the silence between the duple pulses of the heart. This spacing (described in the traditional phonetic approximation of the sound of the heart “Tubb, dub” used by physicians) results in: TUBB, dub, (silence), ONE, two, (three). The mother’s speech that is heard in the womb consists primarily of single-frequency segments created by the vowels between the consonants (Querleu et ai, 1988). These units provide the singular basis for notes in Washington Academy of Sciences 7 music. Mammalian vocalizations generally consist of syllables that have contoured frequencies (sliding pitches), such as a cat’s meow or a dog’s submissive whimper, as well as the human vocalizations of moaning and weeping that originate in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the extended amygdala and the ventral striatum (Parvizi et al., 2001). Despite this preference in emotional vocalizations, human music contains a preponderance of discrete single-frequency units. The acoustical properties of the womb attenuate frequencies unevenly. Due to the absorption of sound by the surrounding tissues in the womb, higher frequencies from external sources are subject to more attenuation than lower frequencies. Consequently the consonants of speech are nearly inaudible in the womb but the “melody” of the pitches created by the vowels between the consonants is quite audible. Speech is produced in predominantly consonant intervals and contains implied tonalities (Schwartz & Purves, 2004; Bowling et al, 2010). As a consequence, the melodies heard in the womb consist of primarily harmonically consonant intervals. A spoken sentence is heard in the womb as a pattern of discrete pitches in a variety of melodic contours and rhythms. The prosody of languages form the bases for melodic treatment in music. Newborns of French mothers prefer the sound of the French language to Russian (Mehler et al, 1988). The newborns still prefer the French language when the speech is filtered to remove the consonant and vowel sounds, retaining only the melody, but they do not show a preference for the melody of the French language when played backwards, implying that a fetus is able to recognize intervallic relationships and melodic contours. Evidence for fetal absorption of the melodic contours of maternal speech is also found in the cries of newborns that emulate the melodic contours of the mother’s language (Mampe et al, 2009). Words and combinations of words create recognizable rhythms that are found in the melodic rhythms of musical motives. Cultures whose languages have accented syllables also have corollary accents in their melodies. For example, the definite articles in the Germanic and Romance languages {the sea, das See, la mer) are heard in the musical upbeats at the beginning of many melodies. The music of cultures whose languages do not contain definite articles rarely have musical upbeats to their melodies. Note the preference for beginning melodies on the beat in the music of Mussorgsky (Russian) and Dvorak (Czech). Summer 2010 8 The musical phrases found in the cultures with non-tonal languages tend to rise toward the middle and fall again at the end. This is also the predominant melodic contour of a spoken sentence in a non-tonal language. Cultures that have contoured frequencies in their languages tend to have a proportional ratio of contoured frequencies in their native music. The pentatonic scales used in much of the music of East Asia do not contain the half-steps that are commonly used in Western and Middle Eastern scales. The whole-step intervals allow enough distance between the pitches to accommodate the frequent use of sliding frequencies heard in their music, as well as in their languages. Continuous melodies, accompaniments, and beat patterns are found in the music of all cultures. Musical selections that contain extended pauses of even a few seconds are rare. This is significant considering the obvious and strong connections between music and speech. While speech pauses regularly, the baseline sounds heard by the fetus in the womb are constant. Music that has continuous accompanimental beat patterns interspersed with melodies is a representation of the fetal sonic environment. The frequency range of melodic instruments in a wide variety of cultures is roughly 200-900 ITz, the same as the frequency range of an adult human female voice (it should be noted that human hearing is not particularly sensitive in this range, but is most sensitive in the range of 2-4 kHz). Emotional Vocalizations All of the acoustic characteristics of emotionally generated vocalizations have been incorporated into emotionally charged speech and music. Knowledge of the acoustic characteristics of a species’ emotional vocalizations tends to be innate and universally shared among members of that species (Herzog & Hopf, 1984). A primary role of the first phase of auditory processing is to compare incoming sounds to templates of recognition and signal an appropriate response when an acoustic “match” is identified (Griffiths & Warren, 2002). One of the keys to music’s ability to induce affective states in humans is the creation of sounds that are approximate matches to commonly shared templates of recognition. The emotional vocalizations of affection and submission are quiet and consist of purer waveforms, whereas the emotional vocalizations of threats and alarms are loud and haVe complex waveforms (Morton, 1977). Generally Washington Academy of Sciences 9 speaking, the variations of timbre, frequency range, and amplitude found in music are based on these parameters of emotional vocalizations. Most sounds in the natural world are either non-periodic (broadband sound of wind or a waterfall) or transient (clicks and pops). Animal vocalizations produce a characteristic resonator-enhanced periodic sound created by the vibration of the vocal folds of the larynx with overtones added by the vocal tract (Fitch & Reby, 2001). Mammals have a broad range of resonance enhancements and many mammals, including primates, have additional overtone modifications created by changes in the shape of the mouth (vowels) (Fitch & Hauser, 1995). The human auditory system is predisposed to filter out non-periodic and transient noise. When the input to the cochlea is a periodic sound the neural activity pattern of the sound oscillates. In contrast, the sensation produced by such a sound does not flutter or flicker; indeed, “periodic sounds produce the most stable auditory images” (Patterson et al., 1992, p. 4). This predisposition allows music to be given priority status in auditory processing since nearly eveiy^ pitched musical instrument produces a resonator-enhanced periodic sound. The importance of adding a modifying resonance to the periodic sound in musical instrument manufacturing is indicated by the modifications made to the electric guitar. The amplification that is provided by the resonating body of an acoustic instrument is not necessary on an electric guitar; however, the sound from the magnetic pickup was judged to be too pure by the early inventors who then developed and installed modifiers that electronically added overtones to the fundamental periodic sound (Poss, 1998). The dissonant-consonant intervals used in speech and farther adapted by music may be derived from and directly related to the complex/threat and pure/affection polarity of primitive emotional vocalizations. This acoustic dichotomy is one of the axes of music. The amygdala responds to emotional vocalizations (Fecteau et al, 2007) and also generates a fear response to dissonance (Ball et al, 2007). The ventral striatum, midbrain, amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex, and ventral medial prefrontal cortex are involved in pleasure responses to consonance (Blood & Zatorre, 2001). This is consistent with the nonhuman acoustic alignment of affective calls identified by Morton (1977) because simultaneous tones spaced at dissonant intervals create an out-of-phase auditory competition between the overtones that result in complex waveforms, whereas the aligned overtones of consonance create waveforms that are relatively pure. The complex overtones of a chord containing a dissonance will trigger a Summer 2010 10 fear response because it resembles the complex voiceprint of a threat containing a periodic sound with a broad array of overtones. Conversely, consonant harmonies that have purer waveforms will be interpreted as sounds that resemble affectionate vocalizations. There is also a melodic expression ot this pure/complex waveform polarity. The dissonant intervals tound in warning cries and threats, as well as the consonant intervals of affective communication, are often interspersed in melodies. I found that this polarity is also present in the vocalizations of the cotton-top tamarins (Snowdon & Teie, 2010). It should be noted that complex waveforms induce tear responses only when associated with the periodic sounds of musical notes or vocalizations; complex waveforms or “white noise” that are not associated with periodic sounds do not induce fear responses. Repetitions in music are often directly associated with emotionally generated vocalizations. Emotional calls throughout the animal world tend to transmit these repeated patterns. E. O. Wilson noted that animal communication is “repetitious to the point of inanity.” The amygdala-generated sounds of sobbing, laughing, and moaning are all comprised of varied repetitions of a single vocalized sound. Sympathetic Arousal of Affective States Through Vocalizations Variations in the resonating chambers of the vocal tract transmit information relevant to the affective state of the vocalizing individual. During in-group communication these variations will tend to elicit a sympathetic emotional response in the listener. The three variables of vocalizations are; 1) the vocal folds of the larynx tighten and loosen to raise and lower the pitch, providing the source of the periodic sound, 2) the higher or lower placement of the laiynx in the throat shortens or lengthens the resonating cavity providing distinguishable formant patterns, and 3) the enhanced periodic sound accounts for much of the emotional connectivity of music. Musical instruments have been developed that present timbres resembling those of affective vocalizations. Players of instruments that have highly variable timbres, such as the violoncello and saxophone, are well schooled in the varying techniques and consistently strive to produce timbres that are in keeping with the perceived emotional intent of the music. The variations in the vocal tract produce three distinct strata of sounds that reflect increasingly emotionally charged speech. The first stratus is the baseline of normal vocalizations. The second stratus is characterized by the lowering of the larynx (hereafter referred to as EE Washington Academy of Sciences speech). This lowering creates an enhanced resonance and shifts the pitch center 2—5 semitones higher. The third stratus combines the lowered larynx with a falsetto vocal production (hereafter referred to as TLF speech), further raising the pitch center an additional 5-17 semitones (Jan et al., 1999). This third stratus is rarely heard but highly emotional. For reasons that may be physiological, the pitch contours of TTF speech are made up of highly consonant intervals. The melodies of this type of vocalization are the most consistently tonal of all human vocalizations. The clarity of the tonal center and ubiquity of consonant intervals in LLF vocalizations rival that of birdsong. I propose that we are imbued at birth with the ability to recognize the modifications to pitch center, formant resonance, intervallic consonance, and tone quality that result from LL and TLF speech and that we respond sympathetically to in-group demonstrations of these types of speech. The emotionally generated vocalization of moaning always incorporates LL or LLF vocal production. Linguistics The two remaining categories of responses to music are exaptations of linguistic and visuospatial processing. Since the appreciation of these aspects of music is enabled by the allocation of neural resources through post-natal exposure and attention, the musical elements in these categories will not be found in the music of all cultures. The emotionally generated variables in linguistics that are very closely related to music are described in the section Emotional Vocalizations. There are many other connections between music and linguistics that have been well documented and comprehensively described (Patel, 2008). The linguistic influence in music is provided by both fetal absorption of maternal speech (Mehler et al, 1988) and by the development and awareness of speech and music during infancy and childhood. It is unknown which of these exerts a greater influence. Summer 2010 12 Visuospatial The following is a hypothetical model of emotional responses that are triggered when music is processed visuospatially. This model presumes that we possess a variety of attentive responses to different types of perceived movement. Many of these responses have yet to be tested, for example, the response to downwardly directed, peripherally perceived movement. Consequently, this category should be viewed as one that may have a basis in logic but not in experimental data. I propose that when music is processed in the visuospatial centers of the brain it is capable of triggering emotional responses to corollary visual cues. For example: a secondary musical line in the lower register will be processed as peripherally perceived, directed movement eliciting an attentive response. The dominant perceptive ability of primates is vision (Pinker, 1997) and an important extension of that visual foundation in the human mind is spatial reckoning. The mind is predisposed to organize information spatially and music has benefited from that predisposition. The elements of music that rely on visuospatial processing are: pattern recognition, chaotic movement, perfect/celestial movement, directed movement, harmony, counterpoint (concerted movement), and structure. Pattern recognition has been shown to induce emotional responses in humans and other primates. Capuchin and squirrel monkeys prefer symmetrical pictures and pictures with elements repeated at common intervals more than random patterns (Anderson et al, 2005). The subconscious enjoyment of design is also indicated by studies that have shown that infants prefer gazing at symmetrical pictures (Bomstein et al, 1981). In visual and musical patterns, repetition is necessary in order to create a pattern. A spiral, for example, has an outer beginning and an inner ending and the self-contained repetition defines it as a design. Perception of movement is central to the arts of dance, drama, painting, sculpture, and music. The instinctive equation between movement and life led ancient cultures to infer that elements that move are sacred -imbued with a spiritual life: water, sun-moon-stars, fire, wind, clouds, and music. However, music itself contains no movement; pitches and dynamics can only imply it. Movement in music is supplied by the interpretation of the sounds in the brain of the listener because we understand and organize the world around us spatially. The perception of movement is inferred when music is processed spatially. For example: there is no “up” or “down” to Washington Academy of Sciences 13 pitch. If we hear a given instrument play 262 Hz (middle c) followed by the same instrument playing 247 Hz (b natural) we will ascribe movement to the succession of pitches, that it has moved “down.” The successive sounding of pitches from the same source can be interpreted and stored in the brain as a kind of spatial, visual memory. Just as we provide connections between dots to “see” a line, we connect successive tones to “hear” a line. Our brains supply the missing information to make sense of the pitches in the visuospatial right hemisphere (Ng et al, 2000). When we hear successive pitches sounding with the same timbre, the brain fills in the gaps and recognizes the sequence “visually” as movement. If we presume that emotional responses to certain types of movement exist to provide appropriate reactions that would improve the observer’s chances for survival, then it would follow that spatially processed music could trigger emotional responses if it resembles a corollary visual trigger. A hypothetical explanation for the attentive response that we feel when we follow the parallel and contrary movements of musical lines is that it may be this kind of exaptation of a visual response to movement. All celestial movements that are visible to the naked eye are generally perceived to be perfect and ordered. This apparent perfection in the movements of our sky has led civilizations to perceive it as the realm of gods and heaven. Accordingly, religious music tends to incorporate symmetrical patterns and consistent movement of the sky (arches) not the earth (turbulence). Stormy, chaotic music will seldom be heard in religious services. Slow music that proscribes the ordered arches of heavenly movement expresses the perfection that we see in the firmament. Turbulent terrestrial movements are chaotic. In the interpretation of sensory perception our brains tend to ignore these turbulent movements since they distract from the recognition of other movements that may benefit our survival and allow a better understanding of our world. The recognition of turbulent chaos, or, rather, our natural ability to ignore it, is the first cognitive filter in the process of comprehension. In the auditoiy system it happens automatically. In visual processing it occurs at a level of intermediate attention that differentiates between the unimportant movement of grass in the wind, and the critically important attention to the movement of a potential predator detected in peripheral vision. Summer 2010 14 In our natural world, purposeful, logical, directed movement is generated by living beings. Predators seek this kind of movement and will feel an attentive response when such movement is recognized. Mammalian prey species are likely to feel a fear response when unexpected movement is directed toward them. As both predator and prey, humans have evolved emotional responses to visual perception of certain basic movements related to hunting, being hunted, and battles. Smaller predators like chameleons and mantids have acquired wavering stalking movements that mask their approach by making them appear to the prey that they are a leaf or stick swaying in the breeze. The bodies of larger predators cannot be confused with anything small and light enough to blow in the wind and rely on slow, steady movement directly toward the prey to prevent detection. The ability of visual processing to filter out chaotic movements and recognize determined movement is vitally important to nearly all animals. It is logical to conclude that a feature of visual processing and emotional response that is central to survival may be triggered by spatially processed music. There are three types of movement that trigger attentive responses in humans and may be triggered by similarly perceived movement in music: 1) linear overtly attended movement, 2) change in direction, and 3) peripherally attended steady movement directed toward the observer. The attentive response resulting from the first two are related to our abilities as predators. The directed movement of a hunted animal will heighten the awareness of the hunter. This movement will be kept in the clearly focused line-of-sight, the fovea of the retina. Any variation in the movement of the prey necessitates a reaction from the hunter. The movement of prey under attack is evasive; the movement of the attacking predator is reactive. This reaction is reflexive and emotionally stimulated. The emotional tug we feel from changing movement may well be a small dose of our adrenal-enhanced ability to follow the escape movements of prey. The third response to movement is related to defensive reactions to potential attacks. A central requirement of visual/emotional processing is to be able to take notice of the determined movement of an advancing predator or enemy. As a part of the front line of vigilance, the eye will tend to turn toward peripherally perceived movement. I propose that an inborn attentive/emotional response to such movement may be triggered by the “peripherally perceived” movement of secondary lines and harmonies in music. Washington Academy of Sciences 15 Pack-hunting humans have a highly developed ability to keep track of the concerted movements of the other hunters in their group while stalking the movement of the prey. The emotional thrill we feel when we successfully employ this instinctive ability is found in pack hunting-based sports where every participant keeps a relationship to a single object, usually a ball, and coordinates his own movements relative to the pack (team). In soccer, for example, the bouncing and rolling of an inflated ball simulates the bounding and running movements of an animal. Those who enjoy the pack-hunters-herding-the-prey-into-a-net games (soccer, hockey, basketball, lacrosse) do so because they are pack hunters in training. The emotional response we feel that is related to traeking concerted movement may be subtly tapped when we track perceived concerted movements (counterpoint) in music. Someone who has spent a good deal of time listening to music with acute attention will more readily perceive contrapuntal movement and feel a stronger response to this kind of stimulus. Accumulated Responses One of the most compelling mysteries of music is its ability to induce the thrill of a climax. A partial explanation may be provided by the gradual build-up of neurochemicals in the listener triggered by the continuous array of recognition responses presented in music. An accumulation of neurotransmitters responsible for consonant/pleasure and dissonant/anxiety can result when an extended passage triggers many responses through a succession of chords and harmonies. Music induces emotional responses through a constant interplay between the dissonance of threats and the consonance of affection and between the familiar and the novel. Primates are particularly sensitive to novelty as well as to familiarity (Wilson & Rolls, 1993), and both novelty and familiarity are capable of triggering an attentive response. Accumulated doses of chemicals and neurochemicals provided by the constant and concurrent string of recognition responses preceding a musical climax create an emotionally charged state in the listener. Generally, music fails to thrill if it lacks this accumulation. If the musical passage is designed so that the emotional responses accumulate more quickly than they dissipate, the result can be an emotional rush. This may also help to explain why the tamarins in our tests did not respond during the playback of the 30-second selections (see below), but did respond during the 5 minutes after the music was presented. (This could also be a function of the greater frequency of behaviors observable during a longer duration.) Summer 2010 16 Affectively Selected Organization Just as natural selection allows preferred physiological adaptations to be passed from one generation to the next, I propose that “affective selection” is a multi-generational societal process whereby characteristics that successfully evoke desired emotional responses are adopted by consensus and incorporated into an organizational structure. It can be observed in a broad spectrum of cultural traditions including literature, cooking, art, architecture, and music. In the development of music of every culture there has been a gradual inclusion of effective techniques and modifications that were deemed acceptable by the musicians and passed on to succeeding generations. When a novel acoustic trigger to an emotional response is discovered or invented it will tend to be adopted by others and becomes the new thread in the fabric of music. A recent example is found in the previously mentioned development of the electric guitar. The magnetic pickup technology of the electric guitar allows the instrument to be played very loudly without amplification “feedback.” But when simply applied, the pickup creates a periodic sound that lacks the overtone enhancement that acoustic resonators provide. The inventors created modifiers that electronically added overtones to the periodic sound (Poss, 1998). So we have loud sounds inducing attentive responses as the added overtones to the periodic sounds allow the guitar to receive the clearest auditory processing. They are able to simulate a wide range of timbres that are recognizably similar to human vocal expressions (such as the harsh, low, threat sounds of heavy metal music). If the developments are widely appreciated, that is to say if they commonly trigger emotional responses, then they will be widely adopted. There are countless examples of affectively selected organization that may be found in instrument making modifications and compositional techniques that have been adopted through the centuries of the development of music. Habituation Top 40 radio may be the best indicator that music often does not lose its appeal despite repeated hearings, that is to say music is generally resistant to habituation. Habituation may occur when the reticular activating system allows conscious identification of the source of a non-threatening sound to effectively disable an attentive response to that sound. Since it is difficult to imagine a circumstance where habituation to emotional vocalizations would enhance an individual’s chances for survival, it seems reasonable to assume that these vocalizations would tend to be exempt from habituation. Also, the extreme variability of the acoustic Washington Academy of Sciences 17 patterns of emotional voealizations helps to make them resistant to habituation. Consequently, music that presents acoustic stimuli resembling emotional vocalizations will also tend to be resistant to habituation. Music that incorporates constantly changing instrumentation, patterns, and keys also avoids the repeated recognition required for habituation. Combined Stimuli Elements of music must be presented in combination in order for them to induce sufficient emotional responses to bring about observable behavioral changes. In a complex and interdependent system it is often impossible to test the effectiveness of each element separately. For example, if a human scream consisting of a loud, broadband waveform with an open vowel at 200-300 Hz triggers an attentive response, this does not imply that a presentation of a 200-300 Hz signal alone would induce one quater of that attentive response. A property of auditory recognition at the neurological level known as combination sensitivity provides that the response to a given set of acoustic characteristics is greater than the sum of the responses to each individual characteristic presented independently (Kanwal et al, 2004). As a result, combined stimuli promote the release and accumulation of chemicals that may induce an enhanced emotional state in the listener. Chaos/Order Polarity An evaluation of the intervallic relationships and rhythmic variations found in human emotional vocalizations and tamarin calls in a variety of affective states indicates the possibility that chaos and order may be seen as a governing polarity in the structure and sound qualities contained in mammalian communication and in music. When viewed in the context of this polarity, Morton’s (1977) motivational structure rules may be expanded to include intervals and rhythms. Chaos is associated with threat vocalizations (Wilden et al, 1998) and is expressed not only by complex overtones, but also by dissonant intervals and irregular rhythms. Alternatively, whereas order is associated with affdiation and expressed by simple waveforms, consonant intervals, and regular rhythms. Summer 2010 18 Conclusion The ideas of Human Music - that many of the emotional responses to music are generated in midbrain structures that are unavailable to conscious attention, that many of these responses result from recognition of acoustic templates that were created in the womb and in infancy, and that some responses are stimulated by the survival instincts of adulthood - constitute a series of theories that represent a move towards understanding that music is capable of tapping into a variety of emotional responses to sounds and connecting humans and nonhumans with their behavioral roots. References Anderson, J. R., Kuwahata, H., Kuroshima, H., Leighty, K. A., and Fujita, K. (2005). Are Monkeys Aesthetists? Rensch (1957) Revisited. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes, 31, 71-78. Ball, T., Rahm, B., Eickhoff, S. B., Schulze-Bonhage, A., Speck, O., and Mutschler, I. (2007). Response properties of human amygdala subregions: Evidence based on functional MRI combined with probabilistic anatomical maps. Pubic Library of Science ONE, 2 doi: 10. 1371/journal. pone.0000307. Belin, P., Fecteau, S., Charest, 1., Nicastro, N., Hauser, M. D. and Armony, J. L. (2008). Human cerebral response to animal affective vocalizations. Proceedings of the Royal Society, B, 275, 473-81. Bimholz, J. C. and Benacerraf, B. R. (1993). The development of human fetal hearing. Science, 221, 516-8. Blood, A. J. and Zatorre, R. J. (2001). Intensely pleasurable responses to music correlate with activity in brain regions implicated in reward and emotion. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 98, 1181 8-23. Bowling, D. L., Gill, K., Choi, J. D., Prinz, J., and Purves, D. (20 1 0). Major and minor music compared to excited and subdued speech. J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 127, 491. Bornstein, M. H., Ferdinandsen, K., and Gross, C. G. (1981). Perception of symmetry in infancy. Developmental Psychology, 17, 82-86. Fecteau, S., Belin, P., Joanette, Y., and Armony, J. L. (2007). Amygdala responses to nonlinguistic emotional vocalizations. Neuroimage, 36, 2, 480-487. Fitch, W. T. and Hauser, M. D. (1995). Vocal production in nonhuman primates: Acoustics, physiology, and functional constraints on ‘honest’ advertisement American Journal of Primatology, 37, 191-219. Fitch, W.T. and Reby, D. (2001). The descended larynx is not uniquely human. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Biological Sciences, 268, 1669-75. Washington Academy of Sciences 19 Griffiths, T. D. and Warren, J. D. (2002). I'he planum temporale as a computational hub. Trends in Neurosciences, 25, 348-53. Gunnar, M. R. and Nelson, C. A. (1992). Developmental Behavioral Neuroscience, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., United Kingdom, 105. Herzog, M. and Hopf, S. (1984). Behavioral responses to species-specific warning calls in infant squirrel monkeys reared in social isolation. American Journal of Primatology, 7, 99-106. Hirokawa, E. and Ohira, H. (2003). The effects of miusic listening after a stressful task on immune functions, neuroendocrine responses and emotional states of col lege students. Journal of Music Therapy, 60, 1 89-2 1 1 . Huang, H., Zhang, J., Wakana, S., Zhang, W., Ren, T., Richards, L. J., Yarowsky, P. Donohue, P., Graham, E., van Zijl, P. C. M., and Mori, S. (2006). White and gray matter development in human fetal, newborn and pediatric brains. Neuroimage, 33, 27-38. Huron, D. (2006). Sweet Anticipation: Music and the Psychology of Expectation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Jan, G., Schutte, H. K., and Miller, D.G. (1999). On pitch jumps between chest and falsetto registers in voice: Data from living and excised human larynges. J. Acoust. Soc.Am., 106, 3, 1523-1531. Kanwal, J. P., Peng, J. S., and Esser, K. (2004). Auditory communication and echolocation in the mustached bat: computing for dual functions within single neurons. In J. A. Thomas, C. J., Moss, and M. Vater (Eds.) Echolocation in Bats and Dolphins (pp. 201-8). Chicago, IE: University of Chicago Press. Levitin, D. J. (2009). The World in Six Songs: How the Musical Brain Created Human Nature. New York, NY: Plume Books. Mampe, B., Friederici, A. D., Christophe, A.M., and Wermke, K. (2009). Newborns' cry melody is shaped by their native language. Current Biology, doi:10.1016/j.cub.2009.09.064. McDermott, J. (2008). The evolution of music. Nature, 453, 287-8. Mehler, J., Jusczyk, P. M., and Lambertz, G. (1988). A precursor of language acquisition in young infants. Cognition, 29, 143-78. Morton, E. S. (1977). On the occurrence and significance of motivation-structural rules in some bird and mammal sounds. The American Naturalist, 111, 855-69. Ng, V. W. K., Eslinger, P. J., Williams, S. C. R., Brammer, M. J., Bullmore, E. T., Andrew, C. M., Suckling, J., Morris, R. G., and Benton, A. E. (2000) Hemispheric preference in visuospatial processing: A complementary approach with fMRI and lesion studies. Human Brain Mapping, 10 (2), 80-86. Owings, D. H. and Morton, E. S. (1998). Animal Vocal Communication: A new approach. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Summer 2010 20 Parvizi, J., Anderson, S. W., Martin, C. O., Damasio, H., and Damasio, A. R. (2001). Pathological laughter and crying, A link to the cerebellum. Brain, 124, 1708-1719. Patel, A. D. (2008). Music, Language and the Brain, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Patterson, R. D., Robinson, K., Holdsworth, J., McKeown, D., Zhang, C., and Allerhand M. (1992). Complex sounds and auditory images. In Y. Cazals, L. Demany, and K. Horner (Eds.), Auditory physiology and perception, Proc. 9th International Symposium on Hearing (pp. 429-446) Oxford, UK. Pinker, S. (1997). How The Mind Works, 214, New York, NY: Norton. Porcaro, C., Zappasodi, F., Barbati, G., Salustri, C., Pizzella, V., Rossini, P. M., and Tecchio, F. (2006). Fetal auditory responses to external sounds and mother's heart beat: Detection improved by independent component analysis. Brain Research, 1101, 51-8. Poss, R. M. (1998). Distortion Is Truth. Leonardo Music Journal, 8, 45-48: The MIT Press. Querleu, D., Renard, X., Versyp, F., Paris-Delrue, L., and Crepin, G. (1988) Fetal hearing. European Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology and Reproductive Biology, 28, 191-212. Richards, D. S., Frentzen, B., Gerhardt, K. J. McCann, and M. E. Abrams, R. M. (1992). Sound levels in the human uterus. Obstetrics & Gynecology, 80, 186-190. Schwartz, D. A. and Purves, D. (2004). Pitch is determined by naturally occurring periodic sownds. Hearing Research, 194, 1-46. Snowdon, C. T. and Teie, D. (2010). Affective responses in tamarins elicited by species-specific music. Biology Letters, 6, 30-32, doi: 10. 1098/rsbl. 2009.0593. Trainor, L. J., Chang, C. D., and Cheung, V. H. W. (2002). Preference for sensory consonance in 2- and 4-month old infants. Music Perception, 20, 187-94. Wilden, I., Herzel, H., Peters, G., and Tembrock, G. (1998) Subharmonics, biphonation, and deterministic chaos in mammal vocalization. Bioacoustics, 9, 171-196 Wilson, F. A. W. and Rolls, E. T. (1993). The effects of stimulus novelty and familiarity on neuronal activity in the amygdala of monkeys performing recognition memory tasks. Experimental Brain Research, 93, 367-82. Zentner, M. R. and Kagan, J. (1996). Perception of music by infants. Nature, 383, 29. Washington Academy of Sciences 21 A New Perspective on the Early History of the American Society for Cybernetics Elizabeth Corona and Bradley Thomas Saybrook University and University of Iowa Participants at the 10 ' Macy Conference (de Rosnay, 2000). U' row (left to right) T.C. Schneirla, Y. Bar-Hillel, Margaret Mead, Warren S. McCulloch, Jan Droogleever-Fortuyn, Yuen Ren Chao, W. Grey-Walter, Vahe E. Amassian.; 2"'^ row (left to right) Leonard J. Savage, Janet Freed Lynch, Gerhardt von Bonin, Lawrence S. Kubie, Lawrence K. Frank. Henry Quastler, Donald G. Marquis, Heinrich Kluver, F.S.C. Northrop; 3'^'* row (left to right): Peggy Kubie, Henry Brosin, Gregory Bateson, Frank Fremont-Smith, John R. Bowman, G.E. Hutchinson, Hans Lukas Teuber, Julian H. Bigelow, Claude Shannon, Walter Pitts, Heinz von Foerster. Introduction The Early History of the Cybernetics Movement in the United States was marked by widespread difficulties stemming from differences in opinion and disciplinary background, accompanied by a lack of willingness to accept different philosophical points of view. In this article we will explore how, despite these differences, a determined group of transdisciplinary thinkers - with interests ranging from engineering to neurophysiology - came together to establish what is now the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC). Although previous articles have addressed the history of this group, newly archived documents and correspondence among the founders of the Society shed light on the difficulties they encountered in their attempt to define a field of inquiry involving researchers from many disciplines. The goal of the present article is to use Summer 2010 22 these newly archived documents to illuminate the difficulties encountered by the field of cybernetics in subsequent years. The term “cybernetics,” as the name for a field of inquiry, was introduced by Norbert Weiner in his 1948 book titled Cybernetics: Control and Communication in Animal and Machine. When first hearing the term, many people today associate it with computers, the internet, automation, or robotics, if they have heard the term at all. While these fields are related to cybernetics, the field itself is actually a much broader area of inquiry into communication and selection behavior in its most general conception. Although the broad relevance of cybernetics is suggested by the wide-range of definitions of the field, the lack of a universally accepted definition of cybernetics has inhibited the field’s cohesion. In fact, individual interpretations of the field are so varied that the ASC’s website lists more than 45 definitions of cybernetics (Defining Cybernetics, n.d.). Further evidence of this barrier to a unified cybernetics is the title of the 2008 American Society for Cybernetics annual conference, “My Cybernetics.” This title acknowledges that each member of the Society has a different understanding of the field and different reasons for being interested in it. The multiplicity of views can be attributed to the highly diverse nature of the ACS’s membership. The Society attracts people from a wide range of disciplines - such as art and music, physics, mathematics, psychotherapy, and management. The systems of interest are specific to each given discipline, but the underlying concepts are the same. The essentially universal nature of communication, modeling, and selection processes makes it possible for people from many disciplines to find common ground. However, at the same time, the vast range of inquiry makes some people uncomfortable, since such a broad field can sometimes be interpreted as lacking focus. For all of these reasons, cybernetics ultimately resists a unified definition. The Rise of Cybernetics The early history of cybernetics in the United States can be traced back to the end of World War II and the start of the Cold War. During the early years of the Cold War, the Josiah Macy Foundation in New York City held a series of conferences that are now known simply as the Macy Conferences on Cybernetics (Pias, 2003). Between 1946 and 1953, the Foundation held ten conferences which included specialized topics such as “Teleological Mechanisms in Society” and “Teleological Mechanisms and Washington Academy of Sciences 23 Circular Causal Systems” (Stewart, 2000). However, after the publication of Wiener’s 1948 book, all of the Macy conferences that were held focused simply on the topic of “Cybernetics: Circular Causal and Feedback Mechanisms in Biological and Social Systems” (Stewart, 2000; Umpleby, 2005). Some of the conference participants who would later lead the eybemetics movement were: Warren McCulloch, Heinz von Foerster, Julian Bigelow, Lawrence Frank, Margaret Mead, Gregory Bateson, Norbert Weiner, John von Neumann, Ross Ashby, Arturo Rosenblueth, and Lawrence Kubie (Umpleby, 2005). Many of these luminaries were present at the inaugural dinner for the ASC in 1964. During the 1940s, 50s, and 60s, cyberneticians focused largely on engineering, control, and regulation in humans and machines, as well as communication and circularity (Foundations, n.d.; Umpleby, July 2006c). This became known as first-order cybernetics. The interdisciplinary nature of cybernetics was quite unusual during this period because many disciplines - such as physics, medicine, and the humanities - were becoming more specialized. However, although cybernetics was interdisciplinary, it was by no means unified. Each splinter group focused on its own interest and applied cybernetic theories and concepts for its own purposes. The diverging interests of these groups are part of the reason why cybernetics as a field lacked cohesion. The 40s and 50s saw the development of the Society for General Systems Research (now the International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS)) and the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) (de Rosnay, 2000). During the late 1950s the group of cyberneticians that were focused on robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) split off (Umpleby, July 2006c). Those that remained under the name cybernetics were more focused on neurophysiology and social systems. When these fields also split from cybernetics, in the late 1950s, the amalgam of interested parties left failed to form well a defined group around common interests. These tumultuous early years, however, did not prevent cybernetic organizations from thriving during the 1960s. By the 1970s, the focus of the cybernetics movement shifted to second-order cybernetics, or biological cybernetics, which focuses on the role of the observer (Foundations, n.d.; Umpleby, July 2006c). In the more recent past, some cyberneticians have focused on social cybernetics, or the interaction between ideas and social systems (Umpleby, 2001). For a breakdown of the three primary areas that cybernetics has focused on over the past half century see Table 1 . Summer 2010 24 Engineering Cybernetics Biological Cybernetics Social Cybernetics The view of epistemology A realist view of epistemology: Knowledge is a “picture” of reality A biological view of epistemology: How the brain functions A pragmatic view of epistemology: Knowledge is constructed to achieve human purposes A key distinction Reality vs. scientific theories Realism vs. Constructivism The biology of cognitions vs. the observer as a social participant The puzzle to be solved Construct theories which explain observed phenomena Include the observer within the domain of science Explain the relationship between the natural and the social sciences What must be explained How the world works How an individual constructs a “reality” How people create, maintain, and change social systems through language and ideas The key assumption Natural processes can be explained by scientific theories Ideas about knowledge should be rooted in neurophysiology Ideas are accepted if they serve the observer’s purposes as a social participant An important consequence Scientific knowledge can be used to modify natural processes to benefit people If people accept constructivism, they will be more tolerant By transforming conceptual systems (through persuasion, not coercion), we can change society Table 1: Three branches of cybernetics, adapted from Umpleby (1990). Recent interest in such fields as chaos theory and complexity has, in many respects, drawn interest away from cybernetics, possibly because of an overlap in research and interests, combined with relatively better defined fields of inquiry. Often the overlap with cybernetics is not recognized. For instance, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in 2008 hosted its 8 annual symposium on Understanding Complex Systems. At this symposium many of the participants were introduced to the work of the Biological Computer Laboratory (BCL) for the first time, despite the BCL’s having worked on many of the same issues that are currently of interest to complexity theorists (personal communication, Stuart Umpleby, August 7, 2008). Ironically, the BCL was founded in the 1950s by cybernetician Heinz von Foerster and was located just a few blocks from the building where the conference was being held. Washington Academy of Sciences 25 Early Leadership of the ASC In the early 1960’s the founders of the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) recognized the rising interest in systems level concepts across many disciplines and formed the ASC to serve and unite this diverse group. As we will discuss, the leadership during the formation of the ASC played a critical role in how the purposes, structure, and culture of the society developed. One of the most active early members of the ASC was Dr. Paul S. Henshaw, who served as the Acting Chairman of the Board during the ASC’s infancy. Other active members included: Warren McCulloch, Frank Fremont-Smith, John Dixon, and Jack Ford. Below is a list of Honorary Founders of the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC Archives, n.d., document #12): Julian Bigelow, Institute for Advanced Studies Frank Fremont-Smith, New York Academy of Science Herman Goldstine, International Business Machine Corporation Yuk Wing Lee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Warren McCulloch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Oskar Morgenstem, Princeton University Filmer Stuart Cuckow Northrop, Yale University Francis O. Schmitt, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Hans Lukas Teuber, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Heinz von Foerster, University of Illinois Correspondence in the ASC archives indicates that the founding members encountered great difficulty in coming to an agreement on the Society’s goals, mission, structure, and leadership, including whether to view cybernetics as an art or a science (ASC Archives, n.d., documents #2, #3, and #4). For instance, when referring to the early members and fundraisers of the ASC, Paul Henshaw stated, “people want to know what the new organization is to do - what its goals are, and indeed what its mission is” (ASC Archives, n.d., document #3). The ASC was incorporated on July 31, 1964 and held an inaugural dinner on October, 16, 1964 at the Cosmos Club in Washington, DC. However, the society was by no means well defined at this point (ASC Archives, n.d., documents #1A and #1D). The founders desired to introduce the newly formed organization to members and the public with a major conference on Cybernetics (ASC Archives, document #1B). In November 1964, the ASC assisted several Washington, DC-area universities in organizing a symposium on cybernetics and society (Dechert, 1966). However, it was almost two years before the nascent Summer 2010 26 society formally elected its first President, and the ASC did not hold its own full conference until 1968, nearly four years after its incorporation (Umpleby, 2005). During this time there was much ado about the nature of cybernetics as a field and the purpose and function of the Society, as well as its leadership and long and short term plans. Selecting a Leader Six months after incorporation, the founding members unsuccessfully attempted to recruit Julian Bigelow as the first president of the ASC. It is relevant that Bigelow was an engineer, while many others in the young field came from humanities like philosophy. A few years before, in 1959, Charles Percy Snow gave his seminal Rede Lecture, “The Two Cultures,” in which he lamented the divide between the sciences and humanities (Snow, 1961). Against this background, Bigelow understood that the interdisciplinary nature of cybernetics would impede the formation of the society, since at the time there was not a cohesive cybernetics field within the academic community for the society to serve, a fact that was recognized by the society’s founders as well. Accordingly, Bigelow would not even consider the offer to become ASC president until the ASC addressed his concerns, outlined in a March 1965 letter to Paul Henshaw and the ASC Board (ASC Archives, n.d., document #7): (1) “...Recognition of prevailing processes, and valuable referential usage [of the term cybernetics] does not in my opinion establish the proposition that “Cybernetics” is the name of a well-defined discipline or branch of science, or of engineering, or even of philosophy.” (2) “We do not have a well-defined disciplinary area, we do not have a living scientific literature within the U.S.A., and in consequence of these facts we do not have a clear basis for recruiting members and setting rational criteria for admission.” Bigelow was clearly concerned about the prospects of forming a coherent field of inquiry from such a vast, interdisciplinary ground. Based on these worries, he suggested two courses of action for the formation of the ASC: ( 1 ) Move forward with the ASC without further concern for the lack of a well defined disciplinary area and “adopt the policy of admitting to membership any persons who express an interest in joining”; or Washington Academy of Sciences 27 (2) Wait to move forward until determining “whether there is a disciplinary area or technical need of some structurable sort within which the ASC could hope to survive as a scientific society, and could hope to fulfill a worthwhile mission.” While he acknowledged that the first option held some value, he strongly supported the second because he didn’t think the first would result in an academic society capable of contributing to understanding, but would rather be a sort of club or social gathering forum for people with similar interests. Bigelow indicated that if they were to proceed under the first it would be a “grueling and inefficient process for which I simply do not have time available” (ASC Archives, n.d., document #7). Bigelow went on to outline his vision for moving forward: (1) Transition the founding members into an “active role in the planning of the next phases of the Society’s activity.” (2) Gather extensive outside expert opinions from the academic disciplines “spanned” by Cybernetics to determine if the “formation and promotion of an active Society for Cybernetics would serve a useful function in their particular area at this time.” In recommending this course, Bigelow was hoping the ASC would lay a foundation for a unified field of cybernetics, with systems level thinkers from varied disciplines coming together to make progress in cybernetics that could then be applied to systems phenomena. Throughout 1965, the ASC leadership focused on the lack of clarity in the society. The group agreed that the term cybernetics was still not sufficiently defined and that there was a need for coherent language. Membership was still lagging, thus they decided to focus on getting younger researchers involved and on broadening membership acceptance to non- Americans. Little ASC correspondence exists regarding activities during the remainder of 1965 through May 1966. The correspondence that does exist suggests that the society went through two distinct phases after receiving Bigelow’s suggestions. Initially, from April - August 1965 they unsuccessfully endeavored to act upon Bigelow’s recommendations. They called the founding members together for an August 1965 board meeting entitled “Shall we go forward or terminate?” The agenda for the meeting included the still pressing need “to determine just what is the purpose of ASC?” and to outline membership criteria. These agenda items clearly show that the Board recognized the importance of Bigelow’s concerns. Summer 2010 28 although there is no evidence of any clear consensus on these issues following the meeting. Nonetheless, despite the apparent lack of consensus on the purpose of the ASC, some of the founding members looked to transition into a more active role, as suggested by Bigelow. This is reflected in a stem letter of disapproval from Jack Ford to the ASC Board dated October 1, 1965, in which he states: It is time to face the fact that we are a corporate body made of separate and coequal mature members with legal and ethical obligations to our membership and founders and that we have a set of operational mles by which we must function in fulfilling these obligations. These facts must be realized by each and every one of us if we are to reestablish the integrity of the Board... and if we are to appear as a group of responsible directors aware of our duties to, and respect for, the membership and - it is to be hoped - one another.” (ASC Archives, n.d., document #9). However, there were no responses to Ford’s letter found in the ASC’s files kept by John Dixon, who served as Correspondence Secretary at the time. In fact, no correspondence could be found dating between October 1965 and June 1966. Then, in June 1966, the ASC announced the selection of Warren McCulloch as their first President. McCulloch was a philosopher, psychologist, medical doctor, and most famously a neurophysiologist. Considering McCulloch’s interdisciplinary inclinations, he was likely less appreciative of Bigelow’s concerns. Based on this abrupt shift and correspondence thereafter, one can assume that the leadership proceeded in opposition to Bigelow’s preferred course of action. Evidence for this is largely negative — that is, based on what the Society did not do. As far as the records indicate, they did not clearly define the ASC or membership criteria, nor did they poll experts in the field; what they did was to forge ahead without consensus on the concerns raised by Bigelow. With its first president secured and its course set, the ASC began pushing to establish its stmcture more definitively. McCulloch reorganized the administrative leadership, separating the powers of the Board and Executive Committee - as had been proposed some time earlier. Additionally, Henshaw resigned from the Board shortly after McCulloch became President, which is likely explained by early Washington Academy of Sciences 29 correspondence indicating that there was tension between the two (ASC Archives, n.d., documents #2 and #13). Henshaw was replaced with Heinz von Foerster as the Board’s Director and Lawrence Fogel was named Vice- President. Moving Forward McCulloch immediately established five standing committees (1) By-laws and Constitution - which were immediately revised, (2) Program, (3) Membership, (4) Finance, and (5) Public Affairs (ASC Archives, n.d., document #14). He also set out to establish a Scientific Council and a Council of Fellows (it is unclear if this ever took hold). By August 1965 the rejuvenated ASC began appealing to various institutions for assistance in establishing cybernetic programs and publications. The ASC received support from the National Science Foundation for the establishment of a cybernetics journal, which became known as the Journal of Cybernetics (now Cybernetics and Systems: An International Journal) (Umpleby, 2006a). Also, the Society proposed to establish conference programs on cybernetics in conjunction with the Josiah Macy, Jr. Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation. Both proposals were denied, as were other conference proposals - primarily on the grounds that the ASC was not specific enough in its goals, definition of the field, and conference topics. Between 1966 and 1978 correspondence and activity waned once again. Few records exist about the ASC’s activities during this period. It is known that in its first 10 years the ASC held at least five conferences on the topics of Purposive Systems, 1968; Cybernetics and the Management of Large Systems, 1969; Cybernetics, Simulation and Conflict Resolution, 1971; Cybernetics, Artificial Intelligence, and Ecology, 1972; and Communication and Control in Social Processes, 1974. The group produced the Journal of Cybernetics for several years. Additional publishing efforts included Communications of the ASC, Cybernetics Forum, and the Journal of Cybernetics and Information Science. The Journal of Cybernetics is now Cybernetics and Systems: An International Journal (Umpleby, 2006a). However, the other early publications have all been discontinued. During this period of inactivity, a disagreement with ASC leadership caused a group to split off from the ASC (Umpleby, 2005). This group went on to form another organization, the American Cybernetics Association (ACA), which was based in Philadelphia, PA (Umpleby, July 2006b). As you can see, the field of cybernetics was in a Summer 2010 30 constant state of flux and dissolution, with many groups breaking away. This repeated disbanding reveals the state of discontent and disagreement among cyberneticians. In the summer of 1979, talk began of resurrecting the inactive ASC. Membership numbers were still a concern and the group acknowledged that if it could not generate enough members, it would likely become an interest group within the Society for General Systems Research. With this in mind, Barry Clemson, then President of the ASC, convinced the AC A to join back together with the ASC. The new organization retained the ASC name, but used the ACA’s by-laws. In 1980, Stuart Umpleby became president of the restored ASC. His Vice President was Doreen Steg, the former President of the ACA. Umpleby saw his task as improving the management of the ASC, while Heinz von Foerster, a member of the Board of Trustees, provided scientific direction (Umpleby, 1981). During the fall of 1981, the ASC held its first annual meeting in seven years (Umpleby, July 2006b). A second conference was held in 1982. Differences in Perspective Tying this early history together, a picture emerges in which the formation of the ASC was hampered by the contrast between two perspectives on the interdisciplinary nature of cybernetics, stemming from the early leadership’s diverging views on the value and function of interdisciplinary communities. One perspective, that championed by Bigelow and held by engineers and physical scientists (such as Henshaw), saw the interdisciplinarity as an impediment to the formation of a unified field, which would need to be united by a coherent language and common interests. Supporters of this perspective appeared to believe this impediment could be overcome, although it is not clear if that would be done at the expense of or in the name of interdisciplinarity. In contrast, interdisciplinarity was welcomed by McCulloch and other cyberneticians with strong humanities backgrounds, who were under the impression that the unification of cybernetics would follow without significant difficulty due to the common interests of those in the field. Washington Academy of Sciences 31 The ASC Today The early differenees in perspective on cybernetics have carried through to the present day. As the focus of the ASC and cybernetics shifted to second order cybernetics in the 1970s, many engineers left the ASC and moved toward computer science, artificial intelligence, robotics, and control systems engineering. The technical aspects of cybernetics have been developed in these fields, while the ASC has made contributions to psychotherapy, management, education, biology, and philosophy. Looking at the ASC today, the question must be asked, what progress toward a unified cybernetics has been made in the last 40 years? The early leadership of the ASC moved forward without a clear definition or cohesive language, apparently in the hopes that these would develop in the Society’s future. One could argue that the opposite appears to have happened - cybernetics has become a distributed topic of research applied to and developed within a wide range of specific fields, but it is still struggling to create a coherent field of its own. The ongoing struggle of the ASC to recruit new members confirms the limited success of the organization in building membership or addressing in the needs of existing members. The effort to define a coherent and unified field of inquiry continues, so far without much success. Additionally, the literature and language used remains highly differentiated (Umpleby & Dent, 1999). However, several cybernetics journals continue to prosper, largely due to an increasing number of articles by scholars from other countries. In 2005, the leadership of the ASC, seeking to ascertain the developing needs of the cybernetics community, conducted a survey of its members to assist in determining the future direction of the Society. The survey’s results were clear: the membership felt conflicted about the value the ASC as an organization provided (Corona & Umpleby, 2006). This information was presented to the officers, along with a full report that laid out a framework for increasing the effectiveness of the organization and ways to take action on the areas of most concern for ASC members - such as by having a more clearly defined agenda for conferences, including new content and presenters from year to year, increasing access to resources and educational materials, and improving communication, both between members and between members and ASC administrators (Corona & Umpleby, 2006). The survey report was, for the most part, disregarded and the group continued to operate much as before with little involvement by members, for example in organizing local chapters. It should also be noted that a Summer 2010 32 similar survey and report was produced by students in 2001 and was also largely ignored (Francis, Doherty, Nsenkyire, Nsenkyire, & Makani, 2001). At a recent meeting of the George Washington University seminar on reflexive systems participants contemplated the need to move beyond debating definitions and terminology. The group reflected on how the need to reach consensus on terminology has been an enduring problem for the various fields of systems thinking, such as cybernetics, systems dynamics, complexity, and chaos theory. The group concluded that a large part of the problem stems from the interdisciplinary nature of the field. Our research into the early history of the ASC strongly supports this conclusion. As a way forward, we suggest that the Officers of the ASC examine other interdisciplinary fields of study that have experienced difficulties for successes and failures. This will help determine what best practices exist for achieving interdisciplinary success, many of which will likely overlap with the recommendations made in the 2005 survey mentioned above. Washington Academy of Sciences 33 References ASC Archives, (n.d.). The archives of the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) 1960- 1988: Stuart Umpleby collection. Corona, E., & Umpleby, S. (2006). American Society for Cybernetics 2005 Membership Survey. Unpublished manuscript, George Washington University, Washington, DC. de Rosnay, J. (2000). History of Cybernetics and Systems Science. In F. Heylighen, C. Joslyn, & V. Turchin (Eds.), Principia Cybernetica Web (Principia Cybernetica, Brussels). Retrieved from http://pespmcl.vub.ac.be/CYBSHIST.html Dechert, C. R. (Ed.) (1966). The Social Impact of Cybernetics (Papers presented at a Symposium on Cybernetics and Society, Washington, DC, November 1964, under the sponsorship of Georgetown University, American University, and George Washington University, with the cooperation of the American Society of Cybernetics). Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, 1966/New York: Clarion/Simon & Schuster, 1967. Defining Cybernetics, (n.d). Retrieved February 11, 2008 from http://www.asc- cybemetics.org/foundations/defmitions.htm Dent, E. B., & Umpleby, S. (1998). Underlying Assumptions of Several Traditions in Systems Science. In Robert Trappl (Ed), Cybernetic and Systems ’98 (pp. 513-518). Vienna, Austria: Austrian Society for Cybernetic Studies. Foundations, (n.d.). Retrieved February 22, 2008 from http://www.asc- cybemetics.org/foundations/history . htm Francis, A.L., Doherty, J., Nsenkyire, C., Nsenkyire, J., & Makani, F. (2001). Assisting the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) in Development Initiatives. Unpublished manuscript, George Washington University, Washington, DC. Pias, C. (Ed.). (2003). Cybernetics \ Kybernetik. The Macy-Conferences 1946-1953. Reprint of the conferences originally edited by Heinz von Foerster 1949-1953. Zurich/Berlin: Diaphanes. Snow, C. P. (1961). The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution: The Rede Lecture 1959. New York: Cambridge University Press. Stewart, D. S. (2000). An essay on the Origins of Cybernetics. Retrieved February 22, 2008 from http://www.hfr.org.uk/cybemetics-pages/origins.htm Umpleby, S. (1981). The 1980 Planning Conference of the American Society for Cybernetics. Cybernetics Forum, 10(1). Umpleby, S. (1990). The Science of Cybernetics and the Cybernetics of Science. Cybernetics and Systems, 21(1), 1 09- 121. Umpleby, S. (2001). What comes after second order cybernetics? Cybernetics and Human Knowing, 8(3), 87-89. Umpleby, S. (2005). A history of the cybernetics movement in the United States. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, 9 1 (2), 54-66. Summer 2010 34 Umpleby, S. (2006a). A history of ASC journals. Retrieved March 10, 2008 from (a password protected site for access only by the Officers of the ASC, special access was given) http://www.gwu.edu/~asc/Information_ASC/information_asc.htmI Umpleby, S. (2006b). ASC administrative history 1979-1982. Retrieved March 10, 2008 from (a password protected site for access only by the Officers of the ASC, special access was given) http://www.gwu.edu/~asc/Information_ASC/information_asc.html Umpleby, S. (2006c). Fundamentals and history of cybernetics: Development of the theory of complex adaptive systems. Paper presented in Orlando, FL, July 2006. Retrieved February 4, 2008 from http://www.gwu.eduy~umpleby/cybemetics/index.html Umpleby, S. & Dent, E. (1999). The origins and purposes of several traditions in systems theory and cybernetics. Cybernetics and Systems: An international journal, 30, 79- 103. Washington Academy of Sciences 35 Air Traffic Controller Workload: Estimating Look-Ahead Conflict Detection Counts Nastaran Coleman and Ellis Feldman Federal Aviation Administration Abstract The number of potential conflicts which must be detected and resolved between pairs of aircraft reflects sector complexity in the en route environment. It also contributes to air traffic controller workload. A linear programming model was developed in ILOG/OPL to detect potential conflicts between any two aircraft, taking positional uncertainties into account. A set of rules was defined to filter out aircraft pairs having no chance of a conflict. This reduced the number of linear programming iterations from hundreds of millions to tens of thousands. Processing time was further reduced by preventing memory leaks in the modeling environment. Introduction The U.S. Nation Airspace System (NAS) is the largest, busiest, and most complex and technologically advanced aviation operation in the word. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is responsible for providing the NAS infrastructure to support all air operations within the United States and certain oceanic areas. This responsibility includes air traffic control services. Air traffic control (ATC) is a service provided by ground-based controllers who direct aircraft on the ground and in the air. The primary purpose of ATC systems worldwide is to separate aircraft to prevent collisions, to organize and expedite the flow of traffic, and to provide information and other support for pilots when able. Air traffic controllers work in different type of facilities: Control towers. Terminal Radar Approach Control Centers (TRACONs) and Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs), hereafter “Centers.” In this paper, we focus on en route air traffic controllers. Centers control aircraft from the time they depart from an airport or terminal area’s airspace to the time they arrive at another airport or terminal area's airspace. Each Center covers many thousands of square miles of airspace above 18,000 feet. Each en route Center is divided into an average of 40 sectors. Determining the workload of an air traffic controller has been a topic of research for many years. Elistorically, workload and staffing requirements have been based on traffic volume. Although volume is a Summer 2010 36 large contributor to workload, it can be argued that traffic in some sectors is more complex than at others, thereby adding to workload even if the volume is held constant. A more complex sector will have a greater number of potential conflicts which must be detected and resolved, for a given look-ahead time, X minutes in the future. The objective of this analysis is to find a way to approximate the number of potential conflicts in the next X minutes in a sector, and to use that to assign a complexity level to that sector. Finding all sectors’ complexities under different conditions such as current and future separation minima, weather and traffic volume, and seasonal effects are some of the uses of this approximation technique. The approximations are not intended for operational use in any en route automation system. An additional objective is that any computer model incorporating the approximations should be capable of the entire National Airspace System (NAS) at all hours of any day quickly and efficiently. Many automated conflict detection and resolution algorithms exist within various automation tools, one such tool is URET^ Similarly, many fast-time simulation models use algorithms to detect potential look-ahead conflicts, one such model is RAMS^. Most of these algorithms use a 4-D trajectory — x, y, z (position) and / (time) — for aircraft position in the near future. Aircraft pairs whose trajectories violate vertical or horizontal separations are flagged. The models assume some level of uncertainty around the predicted positions of the aircraft. Our model to determine potential conflicts among aircraft pairs follows Niedringhaus [1]. The number of linear programs to find potential conflicts increases exponentially as the number of potential aircraft increases. The contributions of this paper include: 1. Establishing techniques to calculate the number of potential look- ahead conflicts for the entire NAS in a reasonable time. Filtering out aircraft pairs that have no chance for potential conflict becomes a significant part of this process. 2. Modifying the Niedringhaus [1] algorithm to incorporate uncertainty. ' User Request Evaluation Tool. For more information see http://hftc.faa.gov/capabilities/uret.htm. ^ Reorganized A TC Mathematical Simulator. For more infomiation see http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/www/labs/AATT/reviews/rams.html. Washington Academy of Sciences 37 A linear program is created to predict a possible conflict between any two aircraft. As in Niedringhaus [1], aircraft are assumed to follow their nominal predicted paths for the next X minutes. That is, for the next X minutes of look-ahead time (typically, ten minutes), the ground speed, heading, climb and descent rates remain unchanged, and the aircraft fly within specified uncertainty limits. An aircraft pair has a possible conflict if the aircraft are predicted to come within a parameter separation (horizontally and vertically) during this time. Linear Program Solution Description Following Niedringhaus [1], we define an aircraft’s 4-D trajectory by mapping xyz^-space to grz/-space, where g (for longitudinal) represents the aircraft’s direction of flight, r (for lateral) represents the direction perpendicular to g. z represents altitude. An uncertainty box is attached to each aircraft at the start of the longitudinal segment it must traverse during a given look-ahead interval. Two aircraft have a potential conflict if they are predicted to approach within a parameter separation (horizontally and vertically) within the look- ahead interval. The uncertainty bounds are defined in terms of required minimum horizontal and vertical separations. Furthermore, uncertainty grows as the aircraft traverse their look-ahead segments. Thus, one can envision each aircraft as moving within a three-dimensional funnel-shaped box, as depicted in Figure 1. The form AUb is used to indicate uncertainty, where A takes the values Z, R, and T to specify altitude, the lateral dimension, and time, respectively; U stands for the uncertainty and b takes the values p (positive for above the centerline) and n (negative for below the centerline), respectively. For example, the box extends to ZUp above its centerline and ZUn below it. ^ Inequalities (12a) through (12d): These provide for growth in the dimensions of the uncertainty box attached to each aircraft as it traverses a longitudinal segment, Niedringhaus! 1]. Summer 2010 38 Figure 1; Uncertainty aircraft box padded with buffer: Uncertainty grows as time increases For each of the aircraft in a pair, define the initial offsets in altitude and time as and Tk, k = 1,2. If neither the altitude uncertainty bounds nor the altitude grow with g as the segment is traversed, a pair of aircraft flying at common altitude z would satisfy the inequalities -ZU„ -dZU„dG, 0. In this case the range remains at least Do = ||Pr||. a geometric interpretation of this scenario appears in Figure 2. 4. Similarly, exclude aircraft pairs when the distance between them, D{t) over the next 10 minutes always exceeds 8 miles. This accommodates the worst-case scenario where pairs head directly at each other. 5. If the head-on filter does not exclude the pair, compute the closest point of approach, Dmm- It occurs at time t = [Pr*Vr]/||Vr|| ; hence /V Dmm - IIPr + Vr^ ||. Provided that Dmm > 8 miles, the pair can be excluded. 6. If aircraft 1 or 2 is climbing or descending, calculate the estimated altitude of aircraft 1 at time Tj ± 20 seconds. If the altitude difference is greater than 1000 feet and increasing in time, then exclude the aircraft pair. Figure 2: The projection of Vr =V2 - V, on Pr = P2 - P, lies in right half plane if Vr- Pr>0. In this case, the range between the two aircraft remains at least as large as the norm ||Pr||. Summer 2010 44 In our analysis, applying the above filters reduced the number of aircraft pairs to be examined from 625,000,000 to 40,000 for one Center. Processing time Processing input data and applying filters described above are done in MS Access®. Consecutive linear programs are run in OPL in batch mode. Consecutive linear programming runs required from three to five minutes of run time to obtain the number of potential conflicts per Center for one day. The run time increases nonlinearly as the number of linear programs grows in our batch files. This suggests that memory usage by OPT is suboptimal and a memory leak might still be present. Run times will improve even further, if further investigation finds and fixes a memory leak. Results Error Bounds In our model, aircraft are assumed to follow their nominal predicted paths for the next X minutes. That is, for the next X minutes of look-ahead time (typically, ten minutes), the ground speed, heading, climb and descent rates remain unchanged and the aircraft fly within specified uncertainty limits. This simplified assumption is the root of potential errors in determining the actual number of potential conflicts. Furthermore, the rate of uncertainty growth is assumed to be linear, causing more potential errors. Establishing an error bound for the estimated number of potential look-ahead conflicts is not an easy task as there is no easy way to actually count look-ahead conflicts for a sample day and region. One can only compare the results obtained by this algorithm to other models that detect future conflicts. Our model produces fewer conflicts than some of other existing algorithms. This could be explained by the fact that the advisory systems that are currently available to air traffic controllers tend to generate large numbers of false positives. These systems are designed to almost never miss a potential conflict, thereby causing an increase in false positives. Applications Many questions can be answered using this model. This model can assess the number of look-ahead conflicts by sector using current and future traffic levels. The number of look-ahead conflicts is one of the factors determining sector complexity used in determining sector workload and associated staffing standards. Washington Academy of Sciences 45 Other applications include: 1. Assessing the benefits of a new technology. For example, future surveillance based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance- Broadcast (ADS-B) will increase speed and position accuracy which could result in reduction in buffer size while deconflicting aircraft. Look-ahead conflict detection could estimate potential benefits of reduced predicted conflicts. 2. Assessing the effect of changes in en route horizontal separations minima on controller workload. Summary The number of look-ahead conflicts detected and resolved is one factor determining sector complexity and air traffic controller workload. We developed and implemented a model to implement an A minute look- ahead conflict detection for all sectors, where X is user-defined. We further applied many filtering techniques to enable fast, efficient execution. This model can be used to estimate the effects of new technology on sector complexity. References 1 . Niedringhaus, William P. A linear Programming Solution for Conflict Detection and for AERA 3 ’s Maneuver Option Manager (MOM), May 1990, The Mitre Corporation. 2. Dr MATH, “Bearing between two points,” The Math Forum ASK DR. MATH, Questions and answers from our archives http://web.archive.Org/web/20080802222353/http://mathforum.org /library/drmath/view/554 17.html (Accessed July 7, 2010). Summer 2010 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 47 A Digital-Discrete Method For Smooth-Continuous Data Reconstruction Li Chen Department of Computer Science and Information Technology University of the District of Columbia Abstract A systematic digital-discrete method for obtaining continuous functions with smoothness to a certain order (C"') from sample data is designed. This method is based on gradually varied functions and the classical finite difference method. This new method has been applied to real groundwater data and the results have validated the method. This method is independent from existing popular methods such as the cubic spline method and the finite element method. The new digital-discrete method has considerable advantages for a large number of real data applications. This digital method also differs from other classical discrete methods that usually use triangulations. This method can potentially be used to obtain smooth functions such as polynomials through its derivatives and the solution for partial differential equations such as harmonic and other important equations. Introduction One of the iviost common problems in data reconstruction is to fit a function based on the observations of some sample (guiding) points. The word ‘some’ is important here. When one has all the data points in hand, then fitting a function to them is trivial. When the data set is incomplete, and one wishes to reconstruct the data, then building a proper fitting function is more difficult. In this paper, we present recently developed algorithms for smooth-continuous data reconstruction based on the digital- discrete method. The classical discrete method for data reconstruction is based on domain decomposition according to guiding (or sample) points, and then the Spline method (for polynomial fitting) or finite elements method (for Partial Differential Equations) is used to fit the data. Some successful methods have been discovered or proposed to solve the problem including the Voronoi-based surface method' and the moving least square method [2j[12][15][ 1 8][19]. A comprehensive review was presented in [4]. ’ In mathematics, a Voronoi diagram is a special kind of decomposition of a metric space determined by distances to a specified discrete set of objects in the space, e.g., by a discrete set of points. It is named after Georgy Voronoi (1868-1908). Summer 2010 48 Our method is based on the gradually varied function (see the appendix for a definition) that does not assume the property of the linear separability among guiding points, i.e. no domain decomposition methods are needed [8] [9]. We design a systematic digital-discrete method for obtaining continuous functions with smoothness to a certain order from sample data. This design is based on gradually varied functions and the classical finite difference method. We also demonstrate the flexibility of the new method and its potential to solve a variety of problems. The examples include some real data from water well logs and harmonic functions on closed 2D manifolds. These validate the method. We present several different algorithms. This method can be easily extended to higher multi-dimensions. This method is independent from existing popular methods such as the cubic spline method and the finite element method. The new digital- discrete method has considerable advantages for a large number of real data applications. This digital method also differs from other classical discrete methods that usually use triangulations. This method can potentially be used to obtain smooth functions such as polynomials through its derivatives/*^^ and the solution for partial differential equations such as harmonic and other important equations [3] [4] [5]. Background and Basic Concepts We will deal with the following two real world problems: (1) Given a set of points and its observation (function) values at these points, extend the values to a larger set. (2) When observing an image, if an object is extracted from the image, a representation of the object can sometimes be described by its boundary curve. If all the values on the boundary are the same, then we can restore the object by filling the region. If the values on the boundary are not the same and if we assume the values are “continuous” on the boundary, then we need a fitting algorithm to find a surface. Both problems involve extending the original dataset to the entire region. We will use two real data examples in the following sections to explain these. We address the following question about extending the data: Let D be a domain and J be a subset of D. If /is “continuous” or “smooth” on J, is there a general method that yields an extension F of/ for set D that has the continuity or smoothness property? ^ d' is the class of all continuous functions. C* is the class of differentiable functions whose kth derivative is continuous. Washington Academy of Sciences 49 In continuous space, this problem is related to the Dirichlet Problem (when J is the boundary) and the Whitney extension problem (when J is a subspace ofD, the space [13] [14] [19]. Why are the existing numerical methods not perfect? Here is an explanation using splines. We show in Fig 2.1 an example that contains four sample data points. If the boundary were irregular, we would need to use a 2D B-Spline to divide the boundary into four segments. The different partitions would yield different results (One is free to do this in different ways with different choices). Fig 2a shows one choiee for a linear interpolation. Fig 2b shows another choice. Fig. 2c shows how a gradually varied interpolation will fit the data. If we have five sample points, we would have 10 different piece- wise linear interpolations. For six points, we may have more than 30 piece-wise linear functions [4]. For more literature review, see [4]. Here we just use an example to illustrate the differenees that can arise with choice of partition. [4]. (a) (b) (c) Fig.2.1. (a) (b) Two piecewise linear interpolations, we do not know which one is correct, (c) The gradually varied interpolation result shows a quite reasonable non-linear fitting. To answer the question posed earlier: What is a “eontinuous” or “smoothing” function in discrete space? We have defined the so-ealled gradually varied functions (GVF) for the purpose of constructing continuous functions in discrete space [6] [7] [8] [9] [10]. See the Appendix for the mathematical definition. The basic concept of gradual variation is to define small changes between two points in a discrete domain that can be built on any graph [6] [7]. So, a gradually varied surface is a special discrete surfaee. In general, a digital surface is formed by the moving of a line segment. Summer 2010 50 Fig. 2.2 Examples of gradually varied functions In 1997 a gradually varied surface fitting software component was included in a lab-use software system. The software demonstrates the arbitrary guiding points of a gradually varied surface fitting in a 10x10 grid domain (Fig. 2.2). The gradually varied function is tightly related to the Tipschitz function and the local Tipschitz function. A brief comparison of the method of gradually varied functions and the McShane- Whitney extension method is in [3]. In theory, McShane and Whitney obtained an important theorem for the Tipschitz function extension [17] [22]. Kirszbraun and later Valentine studied the Tipschitz mapping extension for Hilbert spaces [21]. For more information, see [13] [3]. Theorem 2.1 (see Appendix) can be used for a single surface fitting if the condition in the theorem is satisfied. A problem occurs when the sample data does not satisfy the condition of fitting. Then the original algorithm cannot be used directly for individual surface fitting. Another problem is that the theorem is only for “continuous” surfaces. It does not suggest a solution for differentiable or smooth functions. On the other hand, we can define the discrete immersion problem as follows: Tet Dj and D2 be two discrete manifolds (for instance, piecewise linear approximations of topological manifolds) and/.- Di -^D2 be a mapping. / is said to be an immersion from Di to D? or a gradually varied operator if x and y are adjacent in Di implying /(x^ = f(y), or/(x/ Washington Academy of Sciences 51 f(y) are adjacent in D2 [6] [7]. We can define immersion-extendable and the normal immersion (the gradually varied extension) [6] [7]. Smooth Gradually Varied Functions The fitting algorithm for a typical gradually varied function does not really need the functions Ai,A2,...An and only needs the real numbers as the graph- theoretic solution. However, information about the rational or real numbers of A/, A2, ...An are critical factors in the smooth gradually varied functions. In other words, in order to obtain a gradually varied interpolation or uniform approximation, for instance in a 2D grid space, we do not have to use the actual Ai. We only need to use i, i=l,...,n. This is because gradual variation is an abstract concept. However, to consider smoothness, we have to consider the derivatives that will involve the actual values Ai, i=l, ...,n. The key to the method for reconstructing a smooth gradually varied function is first to calculate a continuous function (gradually varied function), then to obtain the partial derivatives, and finally to modify the original function. A method to keep the partial derivative functions gradually varied is designed as the necessary part for this new method. This procedure can be recursively done in order to obtain high order derivatives. Then we can use the Taylor expansion for local fittings. The use of the Taylor expansion for 2D surfaces was designed by many researchers [16] [13]. The Basics of the New Method Given J ^ D, and fj: J-^{A],A2, ...AJ. Let /b be a gradually varied extension of fj on D, which is a simply connected region in 2D grid space. We can calculate the derivatives + It) - foi^^y) + 1) - foi^^y) (3.1) (3.2) These derivatives will be regarded as an estimation of the fitted surfaces. Sometimes we know the values of the derivatives for the whole or subset of the domain. Then we will use those instead of the above equations. Sometimes, if we are not confident with the whole function {e.g. calculated by the above equations), we will use gradually varied functions to fit the samples of derivative values. After we have the Summer 2010 52 derivatives, /’, we can then use them to re-calculate or update the original (gradually varied) fitted function by adding the first derivative component. The above method can be used to calculate the different orders of derivatives. Then, the Taylor expansion at the sampling point will be applied to a region with a certain radius. Calculation of the Derivatives using Gradually Varied Functions One of the main objectives of this paper is to obtain “continuous” derivative functions using gradually varied reconstruction. After a function is reconstructed, we can then get all the orders of derivatives. There is usually no need to use fitting methods for obtaining derivative functions. However, in order to maintain the continuity of the derivative functions, we either need to smooth the derivative function or use another method to make a continuous function. In some situations, from the observing data point, we can get not only the values of the function itself, but also the values of the derivative function. For example, in the groundwater well log data, we can get both the water lever and the speed of the water flow. For some boundary value problems, we could get the boundary derivatives (called the Neumann problem in partial differential equations). This method will directly use gradually varied fitting to get gradually varied fx and fy\ we can use the same technique to obtain fxx.fxy, and fyy. So eventually we can get every order of derivatives we want. Iteration with special treatments may be needed for a good fit. For instance, we usually need to iterate at a lower order of the derivative function until it is stabilized before calculating higher order derivatives. This method differs fundamentally from Fefferman’s theoretical method in digital reconstruction, which uses a system of linear inequalities and an objective function (this is called linear programming) to find the solution at each point. The inequalities are for all different orders of derivatives [13]. However, for just the function, the objective of Fefferman’s method is very similar to that of the gradually varied reconstruction method. Recalculation of the Function using Taylor Expansion After different derivatives are obtained, we can use Taylor expansion to update the value of the gradually varied fitted function (at In fact, at any order we can update it using a higher order of derivatives. Washington Academy of Sciences 53 The Taylor expansion is based on the formula of the Taylor series, which has the following generalized form: For example, for a function that depends on two variables, x andy, the Taylor series of the second order using the guiding point (xo, yo) is: /(^,t) = /(^o^To) + (^-^o)/.(^o^To) + (t-To)4(^o^To) There are several ways of implementing this formula. We have chosen the ratio of less than half of the change. An iteration process is designed to make the new function converge. Algorithm Design In Section 3, a systematic digital-discrete method for obtaining continuous functions with smoothness to a certain order (C") from the sample data was defined. In order to implement this method, we will now design the new algorithms to accomplish our task. The Main Algorithm The new algorithm tries to search for the best fit. We have added a component of the classical finite difference method in order to obtain derivatives for the smooth fitting. Start with a particular dataset consisting of guiding points defined on a grid space. The major steps of the new algorithm are as follows (This is for 2D functions. For 3D functions, we would only need to add a dimension): Summer 2010 54 Step 1 : Load guiding points. In this step we load the data points with observation values. Step 2: Determine the resolution. Locate the points in grid space. Step 3; Function extension according to Theorem 2.1. This way, we obtain gradually varied or near gradually varied (continuous) functions. In this step the local Lipschitz condition is used. Step 4: Use the finite difference method to calculate partial derivatives. Then obtain the smoothed function. Step 5: Some multilevel and multi resolution method may be used to do the fitting when data set is large. The Iterated Method for Each Step of Calculating Derivatives Iterate to find the fitting function - step 3 of the algorithm. After we have obtained fx,fy then we can re-compute the gradually varied fitting functions {GVF) using to direct the final fitting output. Every time we need to update the result until the new function has no change. Then we have a fixed or 7J. So we can do a gradually varied fitting on the selected points in f or fy, before repeating. We will obtain fxx,fxy, and fy. Update f (or fy), until fx has no change. Then we return back to change f If we knew fx,fy, we can use fx and fy to guide the fitting. In other words, this method uses Fx, Fy, or GVF(^) and GWT(fy) to update the F = GWT(fl. We use numerical updates unlike the first gradually varied fitting where we use “digital” fitting {A„ i=l,...,n), iterate based on the fitting orders. We can either - Choice (A): Update the whole F, and then compute Fx, Fy. I'hen repeat until there is no change or very small change/error within a threshold. Or - Choice (B): Update based on each order (with respect to the distance to the guiding points) then editing Fx, Fy using the updated versions as guiding points. Repeat until there is no change, and we get Fx, Fy. or GVFifxV^ GVF(fy^) (* means some extreme points are added). Then we compute Fxx, Fxy, and Fyy, and so on and so forth. Using Fxx, etc to update Fx and Fy, and then back to updating F again. Washington Academy of Sciences 55 The Multi-scaling Method^ The multi scaling method is to choose a base scale and then refining the scale by 2. This is just like the wavelet method. Other multi- scaling methods for PDE can be found in [23]. If there is more than one guiding point in a pixel or block unit, we can chose one or use its average value. Computing the gradually varied function at scale k gives us Fk=GVF(f,k), we can then get the F(x,k)- We can calculate and insert the value at 1/2 point surrounding the guiding points (do the corresponding process if the pixel contains more points, restores the points or uses the average value). Computing the whole insertion or computing it in an order by surrounding points then uses the new calculated points as guiding points for the gradually varied functions. The resulting gradually varied function is in the new scale. This will guarantee the derivatives at guiding points. Then we use this function to refine the scale again by keeping the inserted points as guiding points. We will now have more points surrounding the original guiding points, and so on and so forth. We can get our F in a predefined scale. This will obtain a good derivative as well. Using higher order derivatives can be obtained recursively. We can also use this to calculate fxx, fxy, and fyy, based on the new gradually varied function to refine the F. This method will also work. The result will be smoothed to the order that we choose. ^ The Multiscale method is a class of algorithmic techniques for solving efficiently and effectively large-scale computational and optimization problems. The main objective of a multiscale algorithm is to create a hierarchy of problems {coarsening), each representing the original problem, but with fewer degrees of freedom. Summer 2010 56 Experiments In this section, we present three different experiments and applications. The first experiment uses the gradually varied function to fit the data for ground water distribution. The second compares the smoothness of reconstruction. Finally at the end of the section, we give some examples for fitting continuous and smooth functions on manifolds. First experiment — Ground water distribution Two sets of real data are tested. Each data set is of ground water distribution near Norfolk, Virginia. The first set consists of 10 sample data points of groundwater distribution and we call this the raw data. The format of the data is as follows: Value Latitude 4.65 36.62074879 8.60 36.65792848 75.12 36.70764998 208.26 36.68320624 10.04 36.72371439 Longitude -76.10938540 -76.55772770 -76.12937859 -76.91329390 -76.02054720 The gradually varied fitting result is shown in Fig. 5.1 and the second data set containing 29 sample points is shown in Fig. 5.2. (a) (b) Fig. 5.1. Norfolk, VA Groundwater distribution calculated by gradually varied surfaces, (a) Using 10 sample points, (b) The fitted result. Washington Academy of Sciences 57 Fig. 5.2. The picture is the result of fitting based on 29 sample points. The first image is a “continuous” surface and the second is the “first derivative.” The arrow indicates the interesting area that disappears in the second image, i.e. the vertical lines are removed. ^ CourtIftrKS Suffolk Norfotk -(44), , .Chesapeake B Vi "E Franklin Dimensions (Latitude, Longitude) A = (36.62074879, -77.17746768) B = (36.92515020, -76.00948530) Fig. 5.3. The map and ground water data Summer 2010 58 Fig. 5.3 shows a good match found between the ground water data and the region’s geographical map. The brightness of the pixels indicates the water’s depth from the surface. In mountainous areas, the groundwater level is lower in general. Some mismatches may be caused by not having enough sample data points (wells). The second image is done using the 29 points and is the same image as Fig. 5.2. Flowever, this image is rescaled to match the geographical location. Second experiment -- Comparison of the smoothness of reconstruction This example uses the Taylor expansion formula to obtain the results. The original data is still the 29 points used above. Fig. 5.4. Comparison for and The image on the right is an enlargement of the boxed region of the image to the left. One can see that the rightmost image is smoother in (c) than it is in (a). (a) The continuous’ function. ESESE (b) The first order derivative. Washington Academy of Sciences 59 Third example — Continuous and smooth functions on manifolds A gradually varied surface reconstruction does not rely on the shape of the domain and it is not restricted by simplicial decomposition. As long as the domain can be described as a graph, our algorithms will apply. However, the actual implementation will be much more difficult. In the above sections, we have discussed two types of algorithms for a rectangle domain. One is the complete gradually varied function (GVF) fitting and the other is the reconstruction of the best fit based on the gradual variation and finite difference methods. The following is the implementation of the method for digital- discrete surface fitting on manifolds (triangulated representation of the domain). The data come from a modified example in Princeton’s 3D Benchmark data sets. We will have four algorithms related to continuous (and smooth) functions on manifolds. This is because we have 4 cases: (1) ManifoldIntGVF: The GVF extension on point space, corresponding to Delaunay triangulations; the values are integers. (2) ManifoldRealGVF: The GVF fitting on point space, the fitted data are real numbers. (3) ManifoldCellIntGVF: The GVF extension on face (2D-cell) space, corresponding to Voronoi decomposition; the values are integers. (4) ManifoldCellRealGVF: The GVF fitting on face (2D-cell) space, the fitted data are real numbers. Fig. 5.4. Gradually varied function on manifolds: (a) Fitting using seven points, (b) Harmonic fitting using (a). Summer 2010 60 (*) Gradually \'aried Fitting vs. Harmonic Fitting (b) GradualK Varied Fitting vs. Harmonic Fitting; (a) Tbe seiected cells form a boundary cun e that Is gradually varied, (b) Another \1etv of the guiding points, (c) The gradually varied tilting (GVF) result, (d) The Harmonic fitting based on GM^ (100 iterations). Fig. 5.5. More fitting examples in digital manifolds Summary McShane-Whitney Theorem says that a Lipschitz function / on a subset J of a connected set D in a metric space can be extended to a Lipschitz function F on D. McShane gave a constructive proof for the existence of the extension in [17]. He constructed a minimal extension {INF) that is Lipschitz. It is easy for someone to construct a maximum extension (SUP). In [3], we use F = (INF+SUP)/2 as the so-called McShane-Whitney mid function. The result is shown below. (See Fig. 6.1) Washington Academy of Sciences 61 Fig. 6.1. McShane-Whitney mid extensions: (a) using the sample data set of Fig. 5.1, (b) using the sample data set of Fig. 5.2. The fitting is dominated by the Lipschitz constant [3]. In this paper, we have shown the local Lipschitz function extensions. To get a smoothed function using gradual variation is a long time goal of our research. Some theoretical attempts have been made before, but struggled in the actual implementation. Fefferman et al. have designed a refinement method [13]. The purpose of this paper is to present some actual examples and related results using the new algorithms we designed in [2]. The author welcomes other real data sets to further examine the new algorithms. The implementation code is written in C++. Li Chen's website can be found at www.udc.edu/prof/chen. Acknowledgements This research has been partially supported by the USGS Seed Grants through the UDC Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI) and Center for Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science (DIMACS) at Rutgers University. Professor Feng Luo suggested the direction of the relationship between harmonic functions and gradually varied functions. Dr. Yong Liu provided many help in PDE. UDC undergraduate Travis Branham extracted the application data from the USGS database. Professor Thomas Funkhouser provided help on the 3D data sets and OpenGL display programs. The author would also like to thank Professor Charles Fefferman and Professor Nahum Zobin for their invitation to the Workshop on Whitney’s Problem in 2009. Summer 2010 References 1 . G. Agnarsson and L. Chen, On the extension of vertex maps to graph homomorphisms, Discrete Mathematics, 306, (17), pp. 2021-2030, 2006. 2. N. Amenta, M. Bern, and M. Kamvysselis, A new Voronoi-based surface reconstruction algorithm, Proc. SIGGRAPH ’98, pp. 415-422, July 1998. 3. L. Chen, Applications of the digital-discrete method in smooth-continuous data reconstruction, http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1002/1002.2367.pdf 4. L. Chen, Digital-Discrete Surface Reconstruction: A true universal and nonlinear method, http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/ 1 003/ 1 003 .2242.pdf. 5. L. Chen, Gradual variation analysis for groundwater flow of DC (revised), DC Water Resources Research Institute Final Report, Dec 2009. http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/ 1 00 1 / 1 00 1 .3 1 90.pdf 6. L. Chen, Discrete surfaces and manifolds. Scientific and Practical Computing, Rockville, Maryland, 2004. 7. L. Chen, Gradually varied surfaces and gradually varied functions, in Chinese, 1990; in English 2005 CITR-TR 156, U of Auckland. 8. L. Chen, The necessary and sufficient condition and the efficient algorithms for gradually varied fill, Chinese Sci. Bull. 35 (10), pp. 870-873, 1990. 9. L. Chen, Random gradually varied surface fitting, Chinese Sci. Bull. 37 (16), pp. 1325-1329, 1992. 10. L. Chen and O. Adjei, lambda-connected segmentation and fitting. Proceedings of IEEE international conference on systems man and cybernetics, 4, pp. 3500-3506, 2004. 11. L. Chen, Y. Liu and F. Luo, A note on gradually varied functions and harmonic functions, 2009, http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/09 1 0/09 1 0.5040v 1 .pdf 1 2. E. Catmull, and J. Clark, Recursively generated B-spline surfaces on arbitrary topological meshes. Computer Aided Design, 10 (6), pp. 350-355. 1978. 13. C. Fefferman, Whitney’s extension problems and interpolation of data. Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 46, pp. 207-220, 2009. 14. B. Klartag and N. Zobin, Cl extensions of functions and stabilization of Glaeser refinements. Revista Math. Iheroamericana, 23 (2), pp. 635-669, 2007. 1 5. P. Lancaster, and K. Salkauskas, Surfaces generated by moving least squares methods. Mathematics of Computation 87, pp. 141-158, 1981. 1 6. Jean-Laurent Mallet, Discrete smooth interpolation, ACM Transactions on Graphics, 8, No 2 , April 1989, pp. 121 — 144. 1 7. E. J. McShane, Extension of range of functions. Bull. Amer. Math. Soc., 40, pp. 837-842, 1934. 1 8. J. Peters, Smooth free-form surfaces over irregular meshes generalizing quadratic splines. Computer Aided Geometric Design, 10 (3-4), pp. 347-361, Aug. 1993 19. P. Shvartsman, On Sobolev extension domains in Rn, http://arxiv.org/abs/0904.0909, 2009. 20. W. Thurston, Three-dimensional geometry and topology, Princeton University press, 1997. 21. F. A. Valentine, “A Lipschitz Condition Preserving Extension for a Vector VwncXxon,''’ American Journal of Mathematics, 67, (1), pp. 83-93, 1945. Washington Academy of Sciences 63 22. H. Whitney, Analytic extensions of functions defined in closed sets, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 36, pp. 63 89, 1 934. 23. X. Yue and W. E., Numerical methods for multiscale transport equations and application to two-phase porous media flow. J. Comput. Phys., 210, (2), pp. 656- 675, 2005. Summer 2010 64 Appendix Gradually Varied Definition: Let function f: A2,...,An} and let Ai< A2<... \ i- j\,f(x)^Ai and f(y)^Aj, where (Z is the distance between x andy in D. Theorem 2.2 [7]: Any graph (or digital manifold) D can normally immerse an arbitrary tree T. Theorem 2.3 [1]: For a reflexive graph G, the following are equivalent: (1) G has the Extension Property. (2) G is an absolute retract. A space X is known as an absolute retract if for every normal space Y that embeds X as a closed subset, X is a retract of Y. (3) G has the Kelly property. Washington Academy of Sciences 65 An alternative representation of the theorem is: For a discrete manifold M the following are equivalent: ( 1 ) Any discrete manifold can normally immerse to M. (2) Reflexivized M is an absolute retract. (3) Mhas the Helly property. Summer 2010 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 67 Highlights from the WAS Banquet Meadowlark Gardens May 17, 2010 Speech by outgoing President Kiki Ikossi Dear Washington Academy of Sciences members, friends, and distinguished guests. It is an Academy tradition to have this elegant banquet every year for three reasons. First, to get together, have some good times, and listen to a wonderful talk. I hope everyone enjoyed the nice weather, the delicious dinner and the amazing talk. Please let me extend my appreciation to David Teie for taking time out of his very busy schedule to join us this evening and talk to us on how science proved that the appreciation of music is not only for humans; music is appreciated by cats and all Earthlings. The next reason we are here is to give the Academy awards to the most distinguished and most promising scientists of the Washington DC area. Allow me to congratulate all of our awardees for their accomplishments and for the recognition they received today. May you all use this distinction to further promote new discoveries and responsible and ethical use of the scientific knowledge that your work produces. Summer 2010 68 Also, many thanks to our awards committee for their time. And now to the third reason we are all here - to inform our members of the state of the Academy and introduce the new board members. Science is thriving and new discoveries are happening every day. Our understanding of the world around us stretches from subatomic to nano- particles, from our Earth to galaxies, includes the climate, and human and animal behavior; this understanding is clearer and better because of efforts of scientists all over the world. Interdisciplinary research is breaking traditional barriers and bringing up new discoveries every day. New inventions make our lives easier, our health better and our medical treatments more effective. Furthermore, the ehange in the way science is treated and viewed in Washington is welcomed by all. We are all very optimistic and hope to see science driving policies for the benefit of the nation and all humanity. This past year I had the honor to serve as the 112 president of the Washington Academy of Sciences. I was fortunate to work with an extraordinary team toward the Academy's goals. Our Executive Director, Peg Kay; President-elect Mark Holland; the Vice President for Administration, Lisa Frehill; the Vice President for Membership, Sethanne Howard; the Vice President for Affiliate Affairs Eugene Williams; the Vice President of the Junior Academy, Paul Hazan; our Secretary James Cole; the Treasurer, Larry Millstein; our Past President A1 Teich and our members at large, Denise Ingram, Daryl Chubin, Frank Haig, Alianna Maren, Donna Dean and Michael Cohen. Together we provided our members an informative, intellectually stimulating, and busy program. One of our traditional events was the Affiliate Reception at the Koshland Museum in November. Dr. Mark Holland was our key note speaker. The last weekend of March, Capital Science 2010 (CapSci 2010), our biannual conference, took place at the National Science Foundation in Arlington, VA. Nineteen affiliated societies participated and the diversity, breadth, and depth of the presentations were remarkable. The plenary and featured speakers' presentations were exceptional. The quality of the conference was unparalleled. fhe Capital Science conference is unique in its nature as it brings together sciences from different disciplines in a weekend of celebration of scientific research and discovery. The ability to have a pan-affiliate local conference in the heart of the nation underlines the fact that the Washington, DC area is not only the political capital of the country but Washington Academy of Sciences 69 also, in many respects, the nation's intellectual capital. Mark your calendars and start working on your research and papers as CapSci2012 is coming up! The main component of the Washington Academy of Sciences Junior Academy program is the Science and Technology Aptitude Recognition for Schools or (STARS) program. The STARS program helps to inspire the next generation of scientists. Under the leadership of the Vice- President for the Junior Academy, Paul Kazan, our STARS program grew exponentially to include over 1600 students from 9 different DC area schools. Over 200 Academy members volunteered as judges for the science fairs. Nevertheless, we did have our moments of worry. With a challenged economy our sponsors could not continue their financial support and left our STARS program with no funds to award the Galileo and Newton metals to the science fair winners. It is in moments like these that one realizes the importance and impact the STARS program had made to the community. Our members stepped in and saved the science fair season. I would like to thank the numerous members who made personal contributions to the STARS program and Irvin Kay Memorial Fund and made it possible for the STARS program to continue. With Paul determined to pass the baton to the Junior Academy for next year, Dick Davies graciously agreed to help Paul until such time as the transition is possible. We are grateful for all the work Paul is doing for the Academy and very please that he is making sure that the STARS program that is so valued by our community continues on. The Washington Academy of Science Journal has the distinction of possibly being the only scientific peer reviewed journal published in the Washington DC area solidly by volunteers for over 100 years. Our journal editor. Vary Coates, after years of dedicated service, passed the baton to Jacqueline Maffucci. Vary went away by producing what I feel is the most desirable journal issue in its history. I was overwhelmed by e-mails from all over the world asking for a copy of Vary's last Journal issue on science policy. We would like to thank Vary for her distinguished service and welcome Jackie. And now to our new programs. This year we initiated our Washington Academy of Sciences' Great Lecturer series. The first lecture was held on October 21, 2009 at the National Science Foundation with Dr. Michael Coble's talk on New Summer 2010 70 Advances in Forensic Science Research & Investigation. Dr. Coble provided an overview of the latest developments in forensic science and the science behind solving the historic mystery of the missing Romanov children. Our website has the whole lecture available to watch. On December 17, 2009, in conjunction with Sisters in Crime and Mystery Loves Company, [WAS] sponsored a panel of prominent mystery writers who discussed how they used science in their work. The transcript of this meeting is available on our website. I am happy that we have started yet another program with this series. Ideas keep pouring in for continuing this series with a possible science in music and/or science in mystery meeting. In an effort to expand the Junior Academy to the college level the first Junior Academy of Sciences club was formed at Salisbury University with the help of our President-elect Prof Mark Holland. The Junior Academy students participated in many of our events including a live link to the Science is Murder program and presentations by many students at CapSci2010. Despite the worrisome state of the global economy the Washington Academy of Sciences is doing well. Although we are not rich in monetary terms, we are affluent in devoted time and energy from all of our members and are able to continue and expand our programs. I would like to thank our treasurer Dr. Larry Milstein and the Audit committee Father Frank Haig and Dr. Terrell Erickson, for their diligence in performing the audit this year. We have about a 5% growth in our active membership. Our treasurer reports that we are doing well with a modest increase in our balance for this year. With regards to bringing up the Academy in the 21st century we still need to work out the details for streamlining online access to journal articles for our members. Nevertheless our programs have entered the 21st century with the videotaping of our Great Lecturer series, which are available on our web site. The CapSci plenary, keynote, and featured speakers were videotaped and will be available soon. In addition our Science Is Murder series and our first CapSci sequel were transmitted live. Thanks to the dedication of our President-Elect live broadcast over Skype was possible with participating students of the Junior Academy of Sciences across the area. Finally, I would like to thank every committee member for the attention and effort they devoted to the Academy. Some members traveled great distances and battled disastrous weather and horrific traffic to participate Washington Academy of Sciences 71 in the committee meetings. 1 would like to personally acknowledge our executive director Peg Kay for all the energy and devotion she demonstrated towards developing and perfecting the Academy's program. It is only through these combined generous efforts that the Academy had a memorable 112 year. Thank you for your attention. And fare well. The Banquet Setting Summer 2010 72 Speech by incoming President Mark Holland Arthur C. Clarke wrote that the scientist, “once over fifty years is fit for nothing more than the Board room and should at all costs be kept out of the laboratory.” Having just suffered through one of those past fifty birthdays fm not sure that I can agree with that sentiment, but I suppose I should start by thanking all of you voting members of the Academy for sending me to the WAS Board Room (where Arthur, at least, says I belong), fm pretty sure that some of my students are also thanking you if Academy business keeps me away from the laboratory a little more than usual this year. This year is shaping up to be an exciting one for the Academy. Follow-up programs from this year’s CapSci meeting are already in the works. We also plan to expand this year in the creation of undergraduate student chapters of the Academy at colleges and universities throughout the Washington area, which was begun under the leadership of past president Kiki Ikossi. Last year we also experimented with the delivery of WAS programs via streaming video and by Skype and this initiative will also be continued. Throughout the year, please keep in touch through your WAS representatives or directly with me if you have ideas about how the Academy can better serve you, your affiliated society or the scientific community generally. Again, I thank you for your support and look forward to working with and for you during the upcoming year. Washington Academy of Sciences 73 The New Board of Directors The Speaker David Teie Summer 2010 74 Awardees Distinguished Career in Science Karl Pribram, Distinguished Research Professor, Department of Psychology (Cognitive Neuroscience Program) Georgetown University Physical Sciences Carl Williams, Chief, Atomic Physics Division, National Institute of Standards and Technology; Co-Director, Joint Quantum Institute (JQI); Adjunct Professor, University of Maryland Applications for Tomorrow Washington Academy of Sciences 75 Biological Sciences Jeffrey Mason, Co-Director, DVBIC-AFIP Brain Injury Center; Chief, Division of Biophysics , Clinical Sciences Division Armed Forces Institute of Pathology; Administrative Director, AFIP Magnetic Resonance Microscopy Facility Mathematics and Computer Science Stuart Antman, Distinguished University Professor Institute for Physical Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics Summer 2010 76 Health Sciences Dr. Jay Sanders, President and CEO of The Global Telemedicine Group, Professor of Medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine (Adjunct), and a founding board member of the American Telemedicine Association where he serves as President Emeritus. Krupsaw Award for Non-Traditional Teaching Martin Ogle, Chief Naturalist, Northern Virginia Regional Park Authority Washington Academy of Sciences 77 Science Policy Francesca Grifo, Director and Senior Scientist, Scientific Integrity Program, Union of Concerned Scientists Special Award for Service to the Academy (Posthumous) Stanley Winkler; This special Award was presented in recognition of his many years of devoted, effective service to the Junior Academy Summer 2010 78 INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS 1 . Manuscripts should be in Word (Office 03/07) and not PDF. 2. They should be 6,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by the Editor). If there are 7 or more graphics, reduce the number of words. 3. Graphics (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in graytone only (no color accepted), and be easily resizable by the editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the graphies. 4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field represented by the manuscript. They must be accurate, complete, and consistent in format throughout the paper. 5. Include both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author (or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if any. 6. Papers are peer reviewed. 7. Send Manuscripts by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to JoumafT washacadsci.org or directly to the editor. Dr Jacqueline Maffucci - iamaffucci@gmail.com. Hard copy can not be accepted. Manuscripts can be accepted by any of the Board of Discipline Editors. Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetiti@hotmail.com Elizabeth Corona - systems science at elizabethcorona@gmail.com Jim Eigenreider - science education at iim@deepwater.org Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at terrell.erickson@wdc.nsda.gov Mark Holland - botany at maholland@salisbur\'.edu Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org Carol Lacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@nist.gov Kent Miller - computer sciences at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@hotmail.com Steve Tracton - atmospheric studies at s.traction@hotmail.com Washington Academy of Sciences AFFILIATED INSTITUTIONS The National Institute For Standards and Teehnology Meadowlark Botanical Gardens The John W. Kluge Center of the Library of Congress Potomac Overlook Regional Park Koshland Science Museum American Registry of Pathology Living Oceans Foundation Summer 2010 80 DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America American/Intemational Association of Dental Research American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section American Fisheries Society American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration American Meteorological Society American Nuclear Society American Phytopathological Society American Society for Cybernetics American Society for Microbiology American Society of Civil Engineers American Society of Mechanical Engineers American Society of Plant Physiology Anthropological Society of Washington ASM International Association for Women in Science (AWIS) Association for Computing Machinery Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation Association of Information Technology Professionals Biological Society of Washington Botanical Society of Washington Chemical Society of Washington District of Columbia Institute of Chemists District of Columbia Psychology Association Eastern Sociological Society Electrochemical Society Entomological Society of Washington Geological Society of Washington Historical Society of Washington, DC Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington DC Section Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 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Vane III Washington Paint Technology Group VACANT Washington Society of Engineers Alvin Reiner Washington Society for the History of Medicine Alain Touwaide Washington Statistical Society Karol Krotki World Future Society Russell Wooten NONPROFIT ORG US POSTAGE PAID MERRIFIELD VA 22081 PERMIT# 888 Washington Academy of Sciences 6‘^ Floor 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC 20005 Return Postage Guaranteed III I.I...II..II.I..I.mI.II.ImII I.ImI.I.II.mI.I.I IQ*l************]yiixED ADC 286 ERNST MAYR LIBRARY HARVARD UNIVERSITY 26 OXEORD ST MUSEUM COMP ZOOLOGY CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138-2902 VVAS ob"'*-' Volume 96 Number 3 Fall 2010 Journal of the WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Ecfitor’s Comments J. Maffucci i Examining Patterns of Simulator Sickness during Increased Exposure to a Motion-Base Driving Simulator over Time E. Nelson, D. Kidd, D. Cades 1 Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for Heavy Trucks: Mitigating Rear-end Tr\x:k Crashes Using Visual Warning Signals IN. Schaudt, D. Bowman, J. Bocanegra, R. Hanowski, C. Flanigan 15 Individual Differences in Resuming Interrupted Tasks N. E. Werner, et a! 35 Psychoactive Medications, Stimulants, Hypnotics, and Nutritional Aids: G. Krueger 51 Instructions to Authors 87 ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC Washington Academy of Sciences Founded in 1898 Board of Managers Elected Officers President Mark Holland President Elect Gerard Christman Treasurer Larry Millstein Secretary James Cole Vice President, Administration Lisa Frehill Vice President, Membership Sethanne Howard Vice President, Junior Academy Paul L. Hazan Vice President, Affiliated Societies E. Eugene Williams Members at Large Denise Ingram Terrell Erickson Frank Haig, S.J. Alianna Maren Daryl Chubin Russell Vane III Past President: Kiki Ikossi Affiliated Society Delegates: Shown on back cover Editor of the Journal Jacqueline Maffucci Associate Editor: Sethanne Howard The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy. It publishes articles on science policy, the history of science, critical reviews, original science research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest to its members. It is published quarterly. The last issue of the year contains a directory of the current membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Members, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal free of charge. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis, payable in advance. Payment must be made in U.S. currency at the following rates. US and Canada $25.00 Other Countries $30.00 Single Copies (when available) $10.00 Claims for Missing Issues Claims must be received within 65 days of mailing. Claims will not be allowed if non- delivery was the result of failure to notify the Academy of a change of address. Notification of Change of Address Address changes should be sent promptly to the Academy Office. Notification should contain both old and new addresses and zip codes. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WAS, 6’^ Floor, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC. 20005 Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Academy Office Washington Academy of Sciences 6*^ Floor 1200 New York Ave NW Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202/326-8975 Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences 202/326-8975 email: was@washacadsci.org website: www.washacadsci.org 1 Editor’s Comments Dear Readers, Scientists are dependent upon federal grants to support their research, and as such I expect many of our readers, like myself, were anxiously awaiting the results of the recent mid-term elections. With the announcement of the results came a great deal of speculation as to what this newly elected Congress means for federal support for scientific research. I’d like to take a moment to suggest that perhaps rather than speculate, scientists take a moment to be vocal about their expectations. I recently attended an event in which Dr. Francis Collins, Director of the National Institutes of Health, addressed among other topics, his hope for continued federal support for scientific research. I also had the opportunity to hear Dr. Harold Varmus, the newly appointed Director of the National Cancer Institute, speak on his life as a researcher and his journey into the political realm. Both of these scientists spoke eloquently about their dedication to research and their expectations for its future. What struck me is that these were both researchers who presumably never had ideations towards politics. And yet, here they were, a few representing the many in need of federal funding to continue their research endeavors. So, as we tread down this path towards the newly elected Congress, if you are one of the many who are concerned about funding for science and have taken to speculation, I suggest that rather than speculate, act. Take a moment and contact your Congressional members; let them know that you are a scientist, that science matters, and you hope that they will continue to support funding for scientific research. With that said, I’d like to introduce the Fall 2010 issue of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences. With the holiday season approaching, and many people travelling via plane, train, or automobile to reunite with their family members, it is a season where safety is on the minds of all. This issue features a series of articles that resulted from the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society mini- symposium held in conjunction with the Washington Academy of Sciences Capital Science 2010 weekend. First, an article by E.T. Nelson et al. explores the utility of simulator systems in research and training, examining whether a motion-based simulator system may or may not induce sickness on the part of the user in the same way that a fixed-motion simulator often does. Following that, W.A. Schaudt et al. focuses on Fall 2010 11 improved ways to arrange rear-lighting configurations on heavy trucks to alert drivers to braking, hence avoiding numerous rear-end collisions on roadways. Then, N.E. Werner et al. focus our attention to distractions, examining the cognitive mechanisms that direct our recovery from interruptions when completing a task. Using a paradigm to test whether it is the goal or the spatial location (or both) that we recall upon resumption ol the task, they present some unexpected results. Finally, G.P. Krueger presents a very thorough review of the effects of various chemical substances on alertness and performance while driving. I hope that you enjoy the issue and have a wonderful and safe holiday season. Jacqueline Maffucci Editor, Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences Washington Academy of Sciences Examining Patterns of Simulator Sickness during Increased Exposure to a Motion-Base Driving Simulator over Time Erik T. Nelson, David G. Kidd, and David M. Cades George Mason University Abstract Simulators provide a method of safely training operators and exploring human behavior in dangerous environments or extreme situations. One drawback of training or conducting research in high fidelity simulator environments with dynamic computer graphics is the occurrence of a phenomenon known as simulator sickness. Simulator sickness can cause people to fail to complete training regimens or to drop out of research studies before their performance is assessed adequately. Simulated environments can also cause discomfort resulting from mild to intense physiological and psychological symptoms of simulator sickness which can negatively impact perfonnance and training effectiveness. A considerable amount of research has been conducted to understand how individual susceptibility to simulator sickness changes with experience in fixed-base driving simulators; while some progress has been made on that score, it is less clear how susceptibility to simulator sickness changes over time in motion-base driving simulators. In this study, symptoms of simulator sickness were monitored over the course of three days in a simulated driving environment. Participants drove a simulated vehicle through multiple drives each day in a motion-base driving simulator. Intensity of simulator sickness symptoms were monitored during each drive within a day and across each day. Symptoms of simulator sickness were highest during the first day of exposure to the motion-base driving simulation but decreased significantly on the second day of exposure, and remained lower on the third day. Additionally, while average intensity of simulator sickness symptoms increased during each subsequent drive during a day, simulator sickness ratings tended to decreased across multiple days. This study’s findings replicated patterns of simulator sickness found in fixed-base motion simulators in a variety of motion-base simulation settings. Fall 2010 2 Introduction Simulator sickness plagues researchers and equipment operator trainers who use virtual environments, such as driving simulators, flight simulators, and tank simulators. While simulator sickness may generally be considered an inconvenience, it can actually threaten the validity of study findings and hamper training efforts. For example, during both research and training efforts in flight and helicopter simulators, up to 90 ^ of participants generally experience at least one symptom of simulator sickness, leading to participant loss and performance that may not reflect how people would act in the real environment that is being simulated (Johnson, 2005). A high rate of attrition can lead to misbalanced study designs, additional costs in recruiting efforts and training, and ethical issues. Performance is negatively affected by increases in simulator sickness, thereby introducing systematic bias in performance associated with susceptibility to simulator sickness (Kolasinski, 1995). Thus, it is important to be able to effectively monitor simulator sickness and understand its progression during multiple exposures to a simulated environment. People who use simulated environments for research or training would then be able to minimize or at least account for the effects of simulator sickness on performance. One possible cause of simulator sickness is that visual stimuli in the simulator depict movements in the absence of actual motion (Kolasinski, 1995). Gower & Fowkles (1989) explain how a conflict between the flight dynamics that a pilot expects and what they actually experience in a simulator can induce simulator sickness. Kolasinski (1995) explains that if a participant gets sick in a motion-base simulator, he could be suffering from motion sickness alone, simulator sickness alone, or some combination thereof. Kolasinski (1995) argued that in order for one to experience motion sickness, he or she must experience vestibular stimulation, which is caused by physical motion. Therefore, while the symptoms of motion sickness and simulator sickness are often similar, they are caused by very different sensory inputs (motion and vision respectively). The most commonly accepted theory of the cause of both motion and simulator sickness is Reason and Brand’s (1975) Sensory Conflict rheory. J'he theory hypothesizes that sickness is caused from a conflict between the motion that one sees with their visual system and the motion that one feels with their vestibular system. With motion sickness participants accurately feel the external forces exerted on them, but they Washington Academy of Sciences 3 don’t accurately see the motion that is associated with that feeling. As an example, a person inside of a large ship may feel the ship swaying in a storm, but their visual system detects no changes because the ships interior is not moving relative to them. In non-motion simulators, simulator sickness can arise because of the opposite scenario. People can see motion, for example a computer display depicting vehicle movement, but are not able to feel it because the simulator base is fixed and does not actually move. The differences between motion sickness and simulator sickness, albeit subtle, are important in working towards understanding how simulator sickness affects both research and training efforts. Sensory Conflict theory has been further supported by biological studies in animals and humans. Wang and Chinn (1956) lesioned the vestibular, or motion perception system in dogs that were susceptible to a swing designed to induce motion sickness. After impairment, the dogs showed almost no reaction to the swing. Alternatively, humans who have damaged vestibular systems often complain of motion sickness when experiencing visually intensive scenes such as driving (Cohen et al., 2003) or even while walking through a supermarket isle (Whitney et al, 2006). Because their vestibular systems are not working correctly, they are receiving visual input but not vestibular input. This is analogous to normal participants in fixed-base simulators. These examples provide powerful evidence that both motion sickness and simulator sickness symptoms can be caused by sensory conflict between the vestibular system and the visual system. Many researchers have attempted to understand better and to quantify motion sickness, and more recently, simulator sickness. The first well known measure of motion sickness was the Pensacola Motion Sickness Questionnaire (MSQ) (Kellogg et al, 1965), which was developed in part to study the incidence of astronaut motion sickness during space flight. Variations of this questionnaire are still in use for assessing motion sickness, however, symptoms and causes of simulator sickness are different enough from those of motion sickness that new measures of simulator sickness were developed. While both simulator sickness and motion sickness have some similar symptoms, such as sweating, nausea, headache, and vertigo, simulator sickness symptoms tend to be less prevalent in the population and much less severe for those who do experience symptoms (Kennedy et al., 1993). The MSQ’s rating system ranges from no symptoms to headache and sweating, among other symptoms, to confirmed emesis (vomiting). Because symptoms of simulator sickness tend to be less severe, the MSQ was not sensitive Fall 2010 4 enough to differentiate between various degrees of simulator sickness. Kennedy et al. (1993) also found that many of the items in the motion sickness questionnaire either did not pertain to symptoms of simulator sickness or just occurred too rarely to be sensitive enough to differentiate between those who have and those who do not have simulator sickness. Emesis is a good example; although it is a valid measure of simulator sickness, it is not a very sensitive measure since it happens rarely. The meta-analysis by Kennedy et al. (1993) only recorded emesis twice in 1,200 simulator exposures in their research. After unreliable measures of simulator sickness were discarded, a factor analysis was conducted to develop weightings to identify a global score of overall simulator sickness. This global simulator sickness score determined by Kennedy et al. (1993) is the rating used in the study, and the most common measure of simulator sickness used in both research and training today. With the development of a reliable simulator sickness rating, researchers have been able to assess simulator sickness over time using longitudinal designs. Two types of longitudinal designs have been examined: multiple assessments of simulator sickness within a given single session, and multiple assessments between several sessions, each separated by at least a day. Not surprisingly, simulator sickness scores tend to increase as time spent in the simulator during any one session increases (Park et al.., 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, & Dunlap, 2000; Stanney et al., 2003). Stated differently, once a person begins feeling sick in a simulator, their symptoms will tend to get progressively worse until they are removed from the simulator. Park et al. (2008) found that participants’ average simulator sickness scores were significantly higher than their baseline scores after only 10 to 15 minutes of exposure. Alternatively, simulator sickness has been shown to decrease when people are given adequate rest between repeated exposures to simulated environments, an effect known as habituation to simulator sickmess (Howarth & Hodder, 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, & Dunlap, 2000). Habituation refers to the participant’s ability to be less affected or not affected at all by simulator sickness over time. Howarth and Hodder (2008) measured participants’ simulator sickness across 10 days on a virtual reality driving game that participants played for 20 minutes each day. They found that symptom onset time increased as the number of exposures to the virtual reality increased. By the end of the study, about half of their participants felt no symptoms of simulator sickness after 20 minutes of exposure to the virtual reality driving game. Washington Academy of Sciences 5 It is important to consider the type of simulator used in simulator sickness studies, sinee simulator sickness can be caused by a mismatch between vestibular and visual system feedbaek. Driving is one domain where simulators have beeome eommonplace in research and training. While some driving simulators used for researeh and training do ineorporate motion, most do not. To date, no studies have evaluated simulator siekness with repeated exposures in a motion-base driving simulator. The addition of vestibular feedbaek to simulated driving environments in motion-base simulators may help reduce the mismatch between the vestibular and visual systems, and reduee symptoms of simulator siekness. As motion-base simulators become more eommon in both training and researeh, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the prevalence and severity of motion sickness in motion-base simulators. If motion-base driving simulators are effeetive at minimizing symptoms of simulator sickness then they may be a more eomfortable and valid testing and training environment for researehers and practitioners. The eurrent study explores whether patterns of simulator sickness observed in previous fixed-base driving simulator studies would be similar or different than patterns of simulator sickness exhibited in a motion-base driving simulator. As deseribed above, two separate simulator sickness patterns have been described in fixed-base driving simulators. The first is a reduction in simulator sickness seores over repeated exposures on different days (Howarth & Hodder, 2008). The second pattern is an inerease in simulator sickness as time in the simulator increases within any one session (Park et al., 2008). This study examined simulator sickness ratings across multiple exposures during three different days in a motion- base simulator with 90 degrees of yaw motion (to simulate turning) and 1 degree of pitch motion (to simulate acceleration and braking). Based on previous researeh, it was hypothesized that simulator siekness ratings would inerease as exposure time to the simulated environment increased during repeated exposures during a single day. Conversely, mean simulator sickness ratings for each subsequent exposure to the simulator were hypothesized to decrease aeross the three days of the study. Fall 2010 6 Method Participants A total of 67 individuals were enrolled in this study. Recruitment was limited to individuals between the ages of 1 8 and 64 (average age of 28.7) with a minimum of 2 years driving experience (average of 11.2 years), a valid driver’s license, and normal or corrected to normal hearing and vision. Participants above the age of 64 were excluded from this study, because older people tend to have a higher susceptibility to simulator sickness than younger people and they were not the focus of this study. Six participants dropped out of the study due to simulator sickness, one participant was removed from analysis due to being above the age limitation in this study and one participant’s simulator sickness data were not recorded on the final drive of day 1 due to equipment malfunction. Participants were compensated $60 total for completing the study - $10 after the first day and $50 upon completion on the third day. Participants who withdrew from the study all withdrew at the beginning of the first day and were compensated $5. Apparatus I'he George Mason University motion-base driving simulator was used in this study (see Figure 1). The simulator is an open back design consisting of the driver’s side of a 2002 Ford Focus cab with three 42-inch plasma displays with a partial wrap-around field of view of 280 degrees and a display refresh rate of 60 frames per second. The cab of the simulator sits on a motion-base system that allows 90 degrees of yaw motion to simulate turning, and 1 degree of pitch motion to simulate braking and acceleration. A Tilliput 619GL-70NP/C/T 7-inch LCD touchscreen display (Lilliput Electronics, Inc., City of Industry, CA) was mounted on the center console to the right of the driver and was used for a secondary task. Realtime Technologies, Inc.’s (RTI) SimVista (Version 2.28) was used to create the simulated driving scenario and RTFs SimCreator was used to run the simulated environment. Washington Academy of Sciences 7 Figure 1. George Mason University Driving Simulator Measures The Simulator Sickness Questionnaire (SSQ) was used to measure participants’ subjective ratings of simulator sickness (Kennedy et al, 1993). The SSQ was developed to quantify simulator sickness by quantifying simulator sickness symptoms into three separate categories: Oculomotor, Disorientation, and Nausea. These three factors are then weighted and combined to form an overall SSQ score. For the purposes of this study, only the overall SSQ measure was examined. Experimental Drives Participants completed a total of 10 different driving scenarios across 3 days. Each simulator driving scenario lasted between 7 and 12 minutes and consisted of the participant driving down a four-lane rural highway, with two lanes traveling in each direction. Participants were instructed to follow a lead vehicle for the duration of each drive at a speed of 40 mph. During each drive, participants encountered one of four possible forward collision events where they were required to brake suddenly to avoid a crash. If a participant collided with another vehicle, the participant’s vehicle would pass through the other vehicle and they were instructed to continue driving as normal. Participants were exposed to nine collision events spread across the 10 drives. Driving behavior data during the events were collected as part of a larger study that will not be reported here. Additionally, participants completed a visual-manual secondary task while driving. This task required participants to listen to a sequence of directions and then enter the same sequence using the Lilliput touch screen display. This task was used for purposes other than the focus of this study, however, it is important to note that glances to and from the Fall 2010 8 forward view and the touch screen could influence simulator sickness ratings. Procedure The study consisted of three sessions held on three separate days. Sessions were separated by no more than three days. The first session was about 1.5 hours in duration and the remaining 2 sessions were about 1 hour long. At the beginning of the first session, participants provided consent and were screened for 20/20 visual acuity using a Rosenbaum I ocket Screener (Armstrong Optical, Denison, TX) and normal hearing using Digital Audiometer software (Digital Recordings, Halifax, Nova Scotia). Participants were then screened for excessive motion sickness using a motion sickness screener provided by the FHWA's Highway Driving Simulator Tab by Dr. Chris Monk (personal communication, Januarv' 2010). No subjects were ruled out of the study due to extreme propensity for motion sickness based on the screener. Following screening, participants completed a demographic survey and a baseline Simulator Sickness Questionnaire (SSQ; Kennedy et al, 1993). Next, participants drove an orientation scenario. In this scenario, participants performed the secondary task while the vehicle was in park lor two minutes, then they drove their simulated vehicle through a pre- determined route through a city to become familiar with vehicle control, and performed the secondary task while driving along a 4-lane highway with no ambient traffic. After the first drive, participants completed the SSQ again and then began the next drive. All subsequent drives consisted of driving along a 4-lane highway with light ambient traffic. After every drive, participants immediately completed the SSQ and were allowed up to a 5 minute break. In the first session, participants completed 4 drives (1 orientation drive and 3 test drives), during the second and third sessions, participants completed 3 drives each (all were test drives). Participants were dismissed after the fourth drive in the first experimental session and after the third drive in the second experimental session. Participants completed an auditory test unrelated to the current study at the end of the third session before being debriefed and dismissed. Washington Academy of Sciences 9 Results The purpose of the current study was to examine changes in simulator sickness ratings across multiple exposures to a motion-base driving simulator within a single day and across different days. In order to examine changes in simulator sickness across exposures in a single day, simulator sickness ratings from the first drive in a session were compared to the last drive in the session using a series of paired samples t-tests. Figure 2 shows the SSQ means for the end of each drive across all three days. There was not a significant change in simulator sickness ratings from the first drive (M = 135.47, SD = 228.21) to the last drive (M = 146.57, SD = 223.14) of the first day, p > .05. There was a significant change, however, in simulator sickness ratings from the first drive to the last drive for the second day’s session and also for the third day’s session, t (58)= -3.1, p < .05 and t (58)= -2.8, p < .05 respectively. Sickness scores increased by 59% from the first (M= 58, SD = 87) to the final drive (M= 92, SD = 126) on the second day and increased by 52% from the first (M = 66, SD = 104) to the final drive (M = 100, SD = 154) on the third day. These findings replicate prior research in fixed-base simulators, which found that simulator sickness gets progressively worse as exposure time increases within a single experimental session or day. 200 180 160 140 bo 120 ’■p re 100 a {A tn 80 60 40 20 0 Drive U Figure 2. Average Simulator Sickness Questionnaire scores for each drive across all 3 days. Error bars represent 1 Standard Error. An asterisk represents a significant difference (p < .05). Fall 2010 10 A one-way repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was conducted comparing the mean SSQ score for each session in order to analyze average simulator sickness ratings across each day. All post hoc pairwise comparisons were run with a Bonferroni correction. Mauchly’s test indicated that sphericity was violated, ^(2) = 24.24, p < .05, therefore, the degrees of freedom were corrected using the Greenhouse- Geisser estimates of sphericity (e = .743). There was a significant difference in simulator sickness scores across the three sessions (test days), F{1.5, 86.2) = 7.5, p < .05. The mean SSQ rating for the first day (M= 141.36, SD = 201.57) was significantly higher than the mean SSQ for day 2{M= 79.69, SD = 102.72) p < .05, and day 3 (M= 83.14, SD = 124.13)/? < 0.05. There was no significant difference, however, in average SSQ scores observed for day 2 and day 3. In summary, the average level of simulator sickness experienced during a session dropped significantly from the first day’s session to the second day’s session, but did not continue to drop in the third day’s session as SSQ scores for session two and session three were not significantly different. 200 180 160 140 w 120 2 100 Sf 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 Day Figure 3. Average Simulator Sickness Questionnaire scores for each day. Error bars represent 1 Standard Error. An asterisk represents a significant difference {p < .05). Washington Academy of Sciences Discussion Simulators are an important tool in many types of vehicle operator training {e.g. aviation, commercial driving, astronaut training, ship helmsman training, etc.) as well as in applied research. Simulator sickness is a common problem when using simulation in research or training because it can threaten the validity and generalizability of study findings. Simulator sickness can also lead to reduced performance in affected participants, and in extreme cases can result in data loss due to participant attrition. In training environments, simulator sickness can reduce trainee performance and compromise the effectiveness and validity of the training program. While there has been quite a bit of research on simulator sickness using fixed-base simulators, there has not been much simulator sickness research conducted using motion-base simulators. Motion-base simulators provide important vestibular feedback that may help reduce simulator sickness compared to their fixed-base counterparts. The purpose of this study was to explore the severity of simulator sickness within and across multiple sessions of exposure to a motion-base driving simulator. Our results provide evidence that, similar to fixed-base simulators, simulator sickness tends to increase throughout the duration of a single experimental session even in motion-base simulators. These findings replicate previous fixed-base driving simulator studies that found simulator sickness tends to increase in severity within an experimental session (Park et al, 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, & Dunlap, 2000; Stanney et ai, 2003). According to Sensory Conflict Theory (Reason & Brand, 1975), the addition of motion should help people match visual feedback with vestibular feedback provided by the simulator. However, in this study, vestibular feedback provided by the motion-base system did not seem to keep participants from experiencing increased simulator sickness within a session. The SSQ scores were very similar to those of Park et al. (2008) where they employed a driving simulation without motion. It could be that in our study, there was too much lag between the graphics and motion, or perhaps the motion did not accurately depict what one would actually feel if they were driving a real car. Further research should be conducted to better understand this interaction. Research in fixed-base simulators has also indicated that simulator sickness tends to decrease in severity across multiple sessions conducted on separate days (Howarth & Hodder, 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, & Dunlap, 2000). Findings in this motion-base simulator study replicated past research in fixed-base driving simulators. Average simulator sickness Fall 2010 12 ratings in sessions two and three were significantly lower than average ratings in session one. However, there was no significant difference between simulator sickness ratings in session two and three. Previous studies that examined longitudinal exposure to simulator sickness found a linear reduction in simulator sickness across time. In this study, there was an immediate reduction in simulator sickness scores from session one to session two (day 2), but no further reduction from session two to session three (day 3). This suggests habituation (learning to adapt) to simulator sickness occurred quickly in this study and did not require exposure over multiple days unlike previous research using fixed-base simulators. This finding suggests that motion-base simulators may facilitate quicker habituation to simulated environments compared to fixed-base simulators. However, this interpretation must be considered cautiously since it is not entirely clear what directly led to such rapid habituation to simulator sickness in this study. Habituation could have been due to the motion-base capability of the simulator, the particular study duration employed, or to some other unknown factors. Future research should compare simulator sickness ratings during exposures to fixed-base and motion-base simulators and multiple motion-base simulators over longer periods of time. Limitations and Future Research One limitation of simulator sickness research in general, is that the population of greatest interest (those who get simulator sick) often drop out of the study. In this particular study, 6 participants dropped out due to motion sickness; 5 of them dropped out after the first drive. Of the 5 participants who dropped out of the study after the first drive, but still felt well enough to complete the motion sickness questionnaire, their mean SSQ score was 670 {SD = 162). This is five times higher than the mean SSQ score for participants who completed the study (M= 134, SD = 226). While this could be interpreted as a floor effect where the majority of participants did not feel sick because there was minimal sickness in the study, this is not necessarily the case. In the study, the average SSQ rating for participants who did not get sick ranged from 58 to 146.6. This is a comparable range in SSQ rating compared to other experiments (Park et al., 2008). Participants who are most susceptible to simulator sickness offer the most variability in studies of this type and can potentially provide much more information about factors underlying motion sickness. In conclusion, this study provides evidence that participants in motion-base driving simulators experience similar patterns of symptoms Washington Academy of Sciences 13 of simulator sickness as participants in fixed-base simulators. As simulator time increases for any one day, on average, so does simulator sickness. While simulator siekness over successive days tends to decrease in both fixed-base and motion-base simulators, the slope of the decline appears to be dissimilar. In the current study, sickness appeared to decrease drastically between day 1 and day 2, and then level out on day 3. In other studies using a fixed-base simulator, the change over time has been more gradual, yet consistent over time. Future study designs should include longer drives than used in the current study as well as an increased number of days of experimentation to better understand the nature of this relationship. Acknowledgements This article is based upon a talk given by Erik T. Nelson at the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society’s mini-symposium on driver performance. The symposium was held at the National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia in conjunction with the Washington Academy of Sciences’ CapSci weekend event March 28 ,2010. Fall 2010 14 References Cohen, H.S., Wells, J., Timball, K.T. & Owsley, C., 2003. Driving disability and dizziness. Journal of Safety Research 34, 361 - 369. Gower, D.W., & Fowkles, J.E., 1989. Simulator sickness in the UH-60 (Black Hawk) flight simulator (USAARL Technical Report No. 89-25). Fort Rucker, AL: U.S. Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory. Howarth, P.A. & Hodder, S.G., 2008. Characteristics of habituation to motion in a virtual environment. Displays 29, 1 17 - 123. Johnson, D.M., 2005. Introduction to and review of simulator sickness research. (ARI Technical Report No. 1832). Arlington, VA; U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences. Kellogg, R.S., Kennedy, R.S., & Graybiel, A., 1965. Motion sickness symptomatology of labyrinthine defective and normal subjects during zero gravity maneuvers. Aerospace Medicine 36, 3 1 4 - 3 1 8. Kennedy, R.S., Lane, N.L., Berbaum, K.S., & Lilienthal, M.G., 1993. Simulator sickness questionnaire: an enhanced method for quantifying simulator sickness. The International Journal of Aviation Psychology 3 (3), 203 - 220. Kennedy, R.S., Stanney, K.M., & Dunlap, W.P., 2000. Duration and exposure to virtual environments: sickness curves during and across sessions. Presence 9 (5) 463 - 472. Kolasinski, L.M., 1995. Simulator sickness in virtual environments (ARI Technical Report No. 1027). Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences. Park, J., Lim, D., Lee, S., Lee, H., Choi, M., & Chung, S., 2008. Long-term study of simulator sickness: differences in LLG response due to individual sensitivity. International Journal of Neuroscience 1 18, 857 - 865. Reason, J.T & Brand, J.J., 1975. Motion sickness. Academic Press, New York. Stanney, K.M., Kingdon, K.S., Nahmens, 1. & Kennedy, R.S., 2003. What to expect from immersive virtual environment exposure: influences of age, gender, body mass index, and past experience. Human Factors 45 (3), 504 - 520. Wang, S.C. & Chinn, H.I., 1956. Experimental motion sickness in dogs. American Journal of Physiology 1 85, 6 1 7 - 623. Whitney, S.L., Sparto, P.J., Hodges, L.F., Babu, S.V., Furman, J.M., & Redfem, M.S., 2006. Responses to a virtual reality grocery store in persons with and without vestibular dysfunction. CyberPsychology & Behavior 9 (2), 152 - 156. Washington Academy of Sciences 15 Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for Heavy Trucks: Mitigating Rear-end Truck Crashes Using Visual Warning Signals William A. Schaudt, Darrell S. Bowman, Joseph Bocanegra, Riehard J. Hanowski Virginia Tech Transportation Institute Chris Flanigan Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Abstract In 2006, there were approximately 23,500 rear-end crashes involving heavy trucks on roadways in the United States of America. Of these crashes, 135 resulted in fatalities and 1,603 resulted in incapacitating injuries (Schaudt et al., in press). The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) contracted with the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to investigate methods to reduce or mitigate those crashes where a heavy truck has been struck from behind by another vehicle. The most prevalent contributing factor is that of the following-vehicle driver looking away, either into the vehicle interior or to the outside (but not the forward view) just prior to a crash. Most previous work on prevention of rear-end crashes has been directed toward attention-getting and eye-drawing mechanisms; that is, trying to get the following-vehicle driver to look forward at the vehicle ahead instead of continuing to look away. The Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for Heavy Trucks project investigated many categories of rear-end crash countermeasures which included both visual and auditory warning signals. The purpose of introducing a visual warning signal, the focus of this paper, was to redirect the driver's attention and visual glance to the forward view. This paper will provide an overview of testing performed with visual warning signals positioned on the rear of a heavy truck trailer. These visual warning signals were tested using a static method (parked vehicles with individuals not driving) to determine how well various configurations of visual warning signals would provide improved eye-drawing capabilities. Two static experiments were performed to down-select several visual warning signal configurations prior to dynamic testing (moving vehicle with an individual driving) on the Virginia Smart Road. The results found that two ERS lighting configurations performed the best and were selected to move forward to the dynamic Smart Road tests. Fall 2010 16 Introduction The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) contracted with the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to investigate methods to reduce or mitigate those crashes where a heavy truck has been struck from behind by another vehicle. This particular collision type results in higher-than-usual rates of fatalities and injuries compared to types of rear-end crashes in which the lead vehicle is a light vehicle (e.g. four-wheel passenger car). For many years research involving light vehicles has been ongoing at VTTI regarding how to use rear lighting to help prevent rear-end crashes. The results of that research were leveraged to aid in the design of Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for heavy trucks in this project (Wierwille, Lee, and DeHart, 2003; Wierwille, Lee, and Dehart, 2005; and Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). A visual warning can be placed where it is needed and it can be designed so that its meaning is nearly unambiguous. Visual warnings have been shown to be effective, assuming the following driver is looking directly at the warning display or has his/her eyes drawn to it. Earlier research at VTTI used data from the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study (Lee et al., 2007). The 1 00-Car Study was performed to determine how drivers were actually using their vehicles and why (in a technical sense) crashes occur. Unobtrusive instrumentation was used. In all, 10 rear-end crashes occurred over the duration of the study. The most relevant finding was that drivers having long eyes-off-road glances were most likely to have crashes (including rear-end crashes). This result underscores the importance of eye-drawing capability for rear warning- lights. The most recent work carried out at VTTI involved the conversion of incandescent lighting to Light-emitting Diode (LED) technology for light vehicles (Wierwille, Lee, and DeHart, 2003). The main question to be answered was whether or not modern LED lighting could be substituted for incandescent lighting tested in previous studies {e.g. Traffic Clearing Lamps), while achieving comparable results in terms of attention-getting and eye-drawing. To obtain an answer, a variety of light-vehicle and heavy-vehicle lighting units were measured for light output and for beam- width. The results clearly showed that one heavy-vehicle unit had the highest on-axis output, but also had a very narrow beam-width (Figure 1). Other computations showed that if individual light units were ganged they could compete successfully with incandescent light units in terms of on- axis light output. In addition, the narrow beam-width of the selected LED Washington Academy of Sciences 17 units would be useful in directing the light backward without emitting high output in adjacent lanes — a desirable feature. 4 in (10.16 cm) Round 4 inch Diameter Stop Lamp (Red in Color) • On-axis Output Measurement at 8m (lux): 4 11 • On-axis Equivalent Source Output (cd): 263 • Half Output Total Horizontal Beam Width (deg): 7 • Number of Active LEDs: 40 • Approximate On-axis Output per LED (cd/LED): 6 58 • Current Draw at 13.5V (milliamps): 271 • Power Consumed at 13.5V (watts): 3 66 Figure 1. Heavy-vehicle LED unit proviciing the highest on-axis output with a very narrow beam-width. These results were used to develop a display board of a light vehicle for testing purposes (Wierwille, Lee, and Dehart, 2003). This display board used a photographic applique over a metal backing. At distances beyond 60 ft (18.29 m), it was quite difficult to tell that the display board was not an actual vehicle. Testing with the display board showed that flashing all rear lighting simultaneously resulted in high attention-getting ratings and good eye-drawing capability (Wierwille, Lee, and Dehart, 2003). Other results showed that the median optimum frequency of flash was 5.0 Hz for simultaneous flash of all lamps. In an experiment investigating eye-drawing capability in which drivers were purposely distracted by a navigation task, normal brake-level lighting (baseline condition) did not exhibit any eye-drawing capability, whereas the simultaneous flashing of all rear lights at increased brightness resulted in a 56 percent look-up rate among the following- vehicle participants on first (uninformed) presentation. These results were for data collected during bright daylight conditions with the sun shining on the display (Wierwille, Lee, and Dehart, 2003). Previous work suggested that lighting similar to that developed for light vehicles should also be used for heavy trucks; namely, multiple high- output LED units that flash simultaneously at a 5-Hz frequency (Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). It was determined by VTTI researchers that these experiments did not need to be repeated for heavy trucks. The results also suggested that the round LED units with the highest output did not need to be modified. However, because of their narrow beam-width it would be necessary to properly aim the lights so that Fall 2010 18 the following driver s eyes would be within the main beam. Details regarding aiming procedures are described later in Experiment 1 . Several visual warning signal configurations of round LED units were developed and tested in two static experiments. The purpose of these experiments were to down-select several visual warning signal configurations prior to dynamic testing (moving vehicle with an individual driving) on the Virginia Smart Road. This paper will describe the two static experiments performed and results obtained. Static Experimentation Purpose and Objectives The purpose of static testing was to determine how well various rear-lighting configurations would provide improved eye-drawing capabilities as well as improved attention-getting and discomfort-glare performance. Static testing was used first to down-select rear warning- light configurations prior to follow-on dynamic testing that was to be performed on the Virginia Smart Road. Two static experiments were performed in total. Each experiment and the results obtained are discussed below. Experiment 1 Method Study Design A total of 84 naive drivers (no previous exposure to the rear- lighting configurations) participated. Half of the participants were males and half were females. Approval for participant experimentation was approved by the Virginia Tech Institutional Review Board (IRB) Human Assurances Committee. The age of participants ranged between 20 and 62 years old (mean of 41.4 years; median of 42.5 years). Counterbalancing of two conditions was performed (z.e., gender and lighting configuration). Data were collected during the day from 9:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST) to 5:30 p.m. EST. Time of day was not considered in the counterbalancing; however, participants were randomly assigned to the available time slots in order to avoid potential sunlight angle bias. Both performance and opinion data were gathered during this experiment. The main aspect of the performance testing was determining the eye-drawing capability of each rear-lighting configuration. The number of occurrences of eye-drawing {Look-ups) and the time to redirect their gaze to the forward roadway {Time To Look-up) were measured and Washington Academy of Sciences 19 served as the primary dependent measures in this experiment. An uninformed event deteetion paradigm (administered before drivers were informed about the true purpose of the study) was used for eaeh experiment that was designed during previous V TTl rear-lighting research (Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). This method had the purpose of assessing eye-drawing capability of each rear-lighting configuration (rear-lighting configurations for these uninformed trials were treated as a between-subjects factor). In total, six rear-lighting configurations were tested using all 84 participants (14 participants per rear-lighting configuration). The use of this between-subjects design was necessary because after each participant was exposed to the surprise event (uninformed event) re-exposure would not provide the same effect. Subjective rating scales were also administered to a portion of the participants. Twenty-four of the 84 participants filled out attention-getting and discomfort-glare rating scales at multiple light-vehicle positions behind the heavy truck trailer. The reason for using these unequal numbers was that the use of 24 participants was found to be sufficient to test a group of six different rear-lighting configurations using a totally within- subject design. The use of 84 participants was used to obtain sufficient statistical power for the between-subjects design portion of the experiment (14 per condition). Apparatus The research team installed six rear-lighting configurations on the rear of a Class 8 heavy truck trailer for static testing (five rear warning- light configurations, one normal brake-light configuration) (Figure 2). All five rear warning-light configurations were composed of numerous high- output LED units selected from previous research. Three of the five rear warning-light configurations contained LED units that were ganged closely together on the main bumper. The baseline lighting configuration was composed of two normal LED units already installed on the trailer. All lighting configurations are further summarized as follows: 1. Main Bumper - Twelve high-output EED units ganged and positioned on the rear main bumper, 2. Cargo Box - Six high-output EED units positioned on the rear of the cargo box, 3. ICC Bumper - Five high-output EED units positioned on the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) bumper. Fall 2010 20 4. Main Bumper/Cargo Box - Twelve high-output LED units ganged and positioned on the rear main bumper and six LED units positioned on the rear of the cargo box, 5. Main Bumper/ICC Bumper - Twelve high-output LED units ganged and positioned on the rear main bumper and five LED units positioned on the ICC bumper, and 6. Baseline (Normal Brake Lights) - Two normal (installed by trailer manufacturer) LED-unit brake light configurations. 4 1 O o o o 1 o o i . . . p ^ I fa- p p Mam Bumper Cargo Box ICC Bumper o i o o o X o o ( OOP QQQ ocFO oocT QfiL QQp IKD OocT o o ] p o g [ Main Bumper w/ Cargo Main Bumper w/ ICC Baseline (Normal Brake Box Bumper Lights) Figure 2. All six rear-lighting configurations used in Experiment I. Preliminary analyses were performed in which vertical aim was adjusted according to potential height locations on the back of the trailer and horizontal aim was adjusted according to potential following-vehicle positions. Because following-driver eye height varies as a function of seated stature and type of vehicle, these eye heights were necessary to Washington Academy of Sciences 21 account for. While vertical aiming was extremely important, horizontal aiming was also considered. Horizontal aiming included turning the units located toward the sides of the trailer inward slightly (2.5 deg), so that adjacent lane drivers would not be subjected to high-output warnings. Because of the narrow output beam-width of the units, it was possible to minimize adjacent lane output while concentrating energy directly behind the trailer where it would be needed for rear-end collision avoidance. During the uninformed event detection portion of the experiment, participants sat in the driver seat of a late model sedan (light vehicle) positioned 100 ft (30.48 m) directly behind the heavy truck trailer. Participants were instructed by the lead experimenter (sitting in the passenger seat) to follow along and complete in-vehicle navigation system tasks. These tasks were intended to distract each participant’s gaze away from the forward roadway. Similar to earlier research (Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009), the navigation system display and controls were located at a horizontal angle of approximately 30 deg to the right of the on-axis forward glance position and at a vertical downward angle of approximately 18 deg (subject to error from variation in participant seat position). Lighting activation was controlled by the experimenter in the passenger seat of the light vehicle. A small button, hidden from the view of the driver, was used to activate the rear-lighting configurations through a wireless signal sent from the light-vehicle’s Data Acquisition System (DAS) and received by a wireless antenna under the trailer. Upon activation of each rear warning-light configuration, lights would flash simultaneously at a 5 -Hz frequency for a period of 5 seconds. Upon activation of the baseline configuration, steady brake lighting (no simultaneous flashing) was initiated for a period of 5 seconds. The time period of 5 seconds was chosen based on rear-lighting activation algorithms developed in previous light-vehicle research at VTTl (Wierwille, Lee, and DeHart, 2003). These algorithms show that a crash will be imminent if action is not taken within 5 seconds of light activation. Four camera views were recorded inside the light vehicle by the DAS. Views recorded included the driver’s face, forward view, an over-the- shoulder view, and brake pedal view. Procedure Upon arrival at VTTI, each participant read and signed an initial information sheet informed consent form. Next, participants were asked to show a valid driver’s license, and a brief informal hearing test and three Fall 2010 22 vision tests were administered. The informal hearing test consisted of the experimenter reading four statements aloud and instructing each participant to correctly repeat back what he/she heard. The first vision test was a Snellen test to ensure that vision acuity was within the legal driving limit (corrected to 20/40). Immediately following, the Ishihara Color Vision test was also administered (Ishihara, 1917). The experimenter recorded each participant’s ability to detect color, but it was not part of the eligibility criteria. The final vision test administered was the Useful Field of View (UFOV) test which was a computer-administered and computer- scored test of functional vision and visual attention. This test has been shown in previous research to be a good predictor of driving performance (Myers et al, 2000). As with the ability to detect color, the results of the UFOV test had no effect on eligibility for participation. No participants were dismissed due to ineligibility (all participants had sufficient vision and/or hearing). After the screening session was complete, each participant was escorted to an asphalt test-pad area at VTTI. Each participant was asked to sit in the driver seat of a light vehicle positioned 100 ft (30.48 m) behind a heavy truck trailer in the same lane. Although participants were aware that the heavy truck trailer was parked in front of the light vehicle, they were not aware that it was in any way associated with the in-vehicle navigation display tasks they were asked to perform. As mentioned previously, participants were instructed by the experimenter to complete several in-vehicle navigation system tasks. There were three tasks performed which were intended to distract each participant’s gaze away from the forward roadway and, while participants were involved in the task, the assigned rear-lighting configuration was initiated. Each of these tasks is further described below in the order that they were administered: 1 . Exposure 1 - Eight activation triggered while receiving experimenter instruction on use of the in-vehicle navigation system display (observing only; low level of visual, cognitive, and manual loading; only event which was truly unanticipated across all participants), 2. Exposure 2 - Eight activation triggered while selecting among available menu items on the navigation system display (participant interaction; medium level of visual, cognitive, and manual loading), and 3. Exposure 3 - Eight activation triggered during text entry on the navigation system display (participant interaction; high level of visual, cognitive, and manual loading). Washington Academy of Sciences 23 As previously menlioned, this uninformed event detection paradigm was successfully executed in previous rear-lighting research (Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). Participants were not driving during these navigation system tasks, and therefore had no need to look forward. However, the hypothesis behind this method was that effective lighting configurations would still draw visual attention to the forward view. Upon completion of the navigation system tasks, participants were asked a series of debriefing questions, told the true purpose of the research, and then returned to the main building at VTTI to review the formal debriefing form and sign the investigative project informed consent form. Twenty-four of the 84 participants were then invited to participate in a rear-lighting configuration ratings session by reviewing and signing the subjective-ratings informed consent fonn. All 24 participants invited agreed to participate. Each of these participants were again escorted back to the asphalt pad study area and returned to the light-vehicle’s driver seat. As mentioned previously, the two ratings scales that participants used to rate each rear-lighting configuration were attention-getting and discomfort-glare. After completion of all ratings for each rear-lighting configuration, participants were returned to the main building at VTTI, compensated, and thanked for their time. Results Uninformed Event Detection Results The uninformed event detection portion of this experiment had the purpose of determining how well six rear-lighting configurations would provide improved eye-drawing capabilities. The number of Look-ups after rear lighting was initiated, as well as the Time To Look-up between the signal initiation and the participant’s look-up response, was obtained. As previously mentioned, all rear-lighting configurations were displayed for a total of 5 seconds after initiation. If the participant did not look up, a value of 5 seconds was assigned on the assumption that this would be the minimum time in which the participant might have looked up. There were two occasions when a participant looked up after a rear-lighting configuration had already been extinguished (after 5 seconds) and in these situations a value of 5 seconds was assigned. The first analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the primary variable of interest was across all three exposures (z.c.. Exposure 7, Exposure 2, and Exposure 3). A two-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was performed with rear-lighting configuration as a between-subjects variable with six levels and exposure as a within-subject variable with Fall 2010 24 three levels. Main effects were found for both rear-lighting configuration and exposure. The main effect of rear-lighting configuration was significant at F(5,78) = 3.81,/? < 0.0038. The main effect of exposure was significant at F(2,156) = 11.65, p < 0.0001. The interaction of these two variables was also found to be significant at F(10,156) = 2.92, p < 0.0022. The interaction is plotted in Figure 3. Although the results show significant main effects for both lighting configuration and exposure, the interaction provides insight into what is actually causing a difference in Time To Look-up for this analysis. As is seen in Figure 3, Exposure 1 shows much lower mean values for Time To Look-up in three of the six lighting configuration categories. By further slicing the interaction and holding exposure level constant, we find that Exposure 1 is shown to be significant at F(5,78) = 12.67, p < 0.0001. Exposure 2 and Exposure 3 were not significant; F(5,78) = 2.06, p = 0.0739 and F(5,78) = 0.84, p = 0.526, respectively. These results indicate that Exposure 1 should be of primary focus for remaining analyses and suggest that as the cognitive demand increased with each exposure, the possibility of perceptual narrowing may have occurred which mimics previous research results (Wierwille, Tlaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). It is also important to note that Exposure 1 was the only event which was truly unanticipated across all participants (once a participant was exposed to the rear-lighting configuration in Exposure 7, anticipation of further rear-lighting activation may have been present). ■ Exposure 1 (Low Demand) Exposure 2 (Moderate Demand) ■ Exposure 3 (High Demand) c ™ Baseline Main Bumper Cargo Box ICC Bumper Main Bumper Main Bumper 2 (Normal Brake w/ Cargo Box w/ ICC Lights) Bumper Lighting Configuration Figure 3. Mean Time To Look-up for all lighting exposures as a function of lighting configuration (statistically significant differences found for Main Bumper, Main Bumper/Cargo Box, and Main Bumper/ICC Bumper during Exposure 1 only). Washington Academy of Sciences 25 The next analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the variable of interest was on the Exposure 1 only (the only situation that was unanticipated across all participants). A one-way, between-subjects ANOVA was performed. Results showed significance with F(5,78) = 4.47, p < 0.0012. A Duncan’s multiple range test was also performed to determine where significant differences occurred between rear-lighting configurations (Winer, Brown, and Michaels, 1991). These results are shown in Figure 4. In Figure 4, means with a common letter (z.e., A or B) do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05 level. The figure shows that the Baseline, ICC Bumper, and Cargo Box rear-lighting configurations did not cause any participants to look up and thus each report a mean Time To Look-up of 5 seconds (the maximum duration of the light exposure). The Main Bumper/Cargo Box, the Main Bumper alone, and the Main Bumper/ICC Bumper rear warning-light configurations were the only ones that caused any Look-ups and all were significantly better at reducing the eye-drawing time. Baseline ICC Bumper Cargo Box Main Main Main (Normal Bumper w/ Bumper Bumper w/ Brake Lights) Cargo Box ICC Bumper Lighting Configuration Figure 4. Mean Time To Look-up for Exposure 7 as a function of lighting configuration (means with a common letter \i.e., A or B] do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05 level). Rating Scale Results As previously mentioned, attention-getting ratings and discomfort- glare ratings were obtained from 24 of the 84 participants. Participants provided an attention-getting rating for each rear-lighting configuration while fixating directly ahead at the lighting and another while fixating 30 Fall 2010 26 deg off-axis. Participants provided a discomfort-glare rating for each rear- lighting configuration while fixating directly ahead at the lighting and another while stationary in an adjacent lane and fixating ahead in the lane (looking past the lighting display). The three rear warning-light configurations that contained the Main Bumper ganged- lighting had better attention-getting ratings while the participants were fixating directly ahead at the rear of the trailer. When participants provided attention-getting ratings while fixating 30 deg off- axis, the highest rated rear warning-light configurations were the Main Bumper/Cargo Box, and the Main Bumper/ICC Bumper. The Main Bumper lighting configuration was rated a very close second. For the discomfort-glare ratings while fixating directly at the lighting, the three rear warning-light configurations that contained the Main Bumper ganged- lighting in common once again provided higher ratings. These mean ratings were still in the middle range for glare (not falling in the “undesirable category”). For the discomfort-glare ratings while stationary in an adjacent lane and fixating ahead in the lane (looking past the lighting display), the three rear warning-light configurations with the Main Bumper ganged-lighting in common once again had the highest reported ratings. These mean ratings were in the low range for glare (indicating above satisfactory levels of glare). Experiment 1 Conclusions All results clearly indicated that the three rear warning-light configurations that contained the Main Bumper ganged-lighting performed the best in regards to eye-drawing and ratings performance. These rear warning-light configurations (z.e.. Main Bumper, Main Bumper/Cargo Box, and Main Bumper/ICC Bumper) were determined to be the best candidates to move forward to the dynamic Smart Road tests. This result corresponds to previous research which has also shown that ganging multiple LED units together can improve eye-drawing performance (Wierwille, Tlaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). After further consideration, researchers determined that new rear warning-light configurations needed to be developed and again tested in a second experiment to further explore ganging LED units in locations other than the Main Bumper area. It was determined that one rear warning-light configuration of 12 ganged LED units should be positioned high on each side of the cargo box, and another 1 2 ganged LED units positioned on the ICC bumper. The potential benefit of a high-location rear warning-light configuration would be to help in reducing a rear-end collision from the following vehicle immediately Washington Academy of Sciences 27 behind the trailer, as well as multiple other vehicles further behind in the same lane. However, results from static testing showed that the Main Bumper/ICC Bumper configuration showed slightly higher eye-drawing capabilities (although not statistically significant) raising the question as to whether ganged-lighting positioned lower would be more beneficial overall. Testing these remaining two ganged rear warning-light configurations in a second static experiment would allow further insight into two areas: 1) determination of whether ganged-lighting would also perform well in both high and low locations on the trailer, and 2) determination of the final two most promising concepts to move forward to the dynamic testing on the Smart Road. Experiment 2 Method Study Design A total of 28 naive drivers (no previous exposure to the lighting configurations) participated in an uninformed event detection paradigm with two new rear warning-light configurations. The performance data from these 28 new drivers were then analyzed in comparison to data from Experiment 1 . The data to be used from Experiment f for the comparison were from the 28 participants who received the Baseline configuration and the Main Bumper configuration. Therefore, the total number of participants to be used in the analysis was 56. Half of the participants were males and half were females. The age of all 56 participants ranged between 21 and 63 years old (mean of 40.5 years; median of 37.0 years). Counterbalancing of two conditions was performed {i.e., gender and lighting configuration). The recruitment procedure used for the new 28 participants in Experiment 2 was identical to the recruitment procedure used in Experiment 1 . During Experiment 2, only performance data were gathered. The main aspect of the performance testing was determining the eye-drawing capability of each rear-lighting configuration. The number of Look-ups and the Time To Look-up were measured and served as the main dependent measures. The same uninformed event detection paradigm was used from Experiment 1. In total, two rear warning-light configurations were tested using all 28 newly recruited participants (14 participants per lighting configuration). Fall 2010 28 Twelve-light Cargo Box Twelve-light ICC Bumper Figure 5. Two new rear warning-light configurations used in Experiment 2. Apparatus Two new rear warning-light configurations installed on the rear of a heavy truck trailer were used during Experiment 2 (Figure 5). Each high- output LED unit was aimed appropriately, both vertically and horizontally according to the location on the back of the trailer (as was performed in Experiment 1). The two rear warning-light configurations are summarized as follows: 1. Twelve-light Cargo Box - Twelve high-output LED units ganged and positioned high on the rear of the cargo box, 2. Twelve-light ICC Bumper - Twelve high-output LED units positioned along the ICC bumper. All other equipment used for the uninformed event detection portion of Experiment 2 was identical to that used in Experiment 1. Procedure The procedures performed in Experiment 2 were identical to those of Experiment 1, with the exception that no ratings were administered. Results Experiment 2 had the purpose of determining how well each new rear warning- light configuration would provide improved eye-drawing capabilities. The frequency of Look-ups, as well as the Time To Look-up, was obtained. Because the procedures were identical, the two new rear warning-light configurations were compared to the Baseline configuration Washington Academy of Sciences 29 and the Main Bumper configuration results from Experiment 1 . Results in this section for Experiment 2 are presented in similar format to the Experiment 1 results section (with the exception that no ratings section will be presented). The first analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the primary variable of interest was across all three exposures. A two-way ANOVA was performed with rear-lighting configuration as a between-subjects variable with four levels and exposure as a within-subject variable with three levels. A main effect was found for exposure, but not for rear- lighting configuration. The main effect of exposure was significant at F(2,104) = 1.02, p < 0.0014. For rear-lighting configuration, the effect was not significant at F(3,52) = 1.38, p = 0.2592. The interaction of these two variables was found to be significant at F"(6,104) = 2.23, p < 0.0459. The interaction is plotted in Figure 6. Although the results show a significant main effect for exposure, the interaction provides insight into what is actually causing a difference in Time To Look-up for this analysis. As is seen in Figure 6, Exposure 1 shows lower mean values for Time To Look-up in three of the four rear- lighting configuration categories. By further slicing the interaction and holding exposure level constant, we find that Exposure 1 was indeed shown to be significant at F(3,52) = 6.6, p < 0.0004. Exposure 2 and Exposure 3 were not significant; F(3,52) = .41, p = 0.7471 and F(3,52) == .23, p = 0.8771, respectively. As was found in the Experiment 1 results, these results indicate that Exposure 1 should be of primary focus for remaining analyses and suggest that as the cognitive demand increased with each exposure, the possibility of perceptual narrowing may have occurred. Fall 2010 30 ■ Exposure 1 (Low Demand) k Exposure 2 (Moderate Demand) ■ Exposure 3 (High Demand) c 2 Baseline (Normal Twelve-light Cargo Twelve-light ICC Main Bumper § Brakelights) Box Bumper Lighting Configuration Figure 6. Mean Time To Look-up for all lighting exposures as a function of lighting configuration (statistically significant difference found for Main Bumper during Exposure 1 only). The next analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the variable of interest was on Exposure 1 only (the only situation that was unantieipated across all participants). A one-way, between-subjects ANOVA was performed. The effect of duration for Exposure 1 was nearly significant at F(3,52) = 2.6, p < 0.0621. Although the effect was not significant, a Duncan’s multiple range test was performed to determine if significant differences occurred between lighting configurations (Winer, Brown, and Michels, 1991). These results are shown in Figure 7. In Figure 7, means with a common letter do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05 level. Figure 7 shows that the Baseline configuration did not cause any participants to look up and, therefore, reports a mean Time To Look-up of 5 seconds (the maximum duration of the light exposure). The Main Bumper^ the new Twelve-light ICC Bumper, and the new Twelve-light Cargo Box rear warning-light configurations were the only ones that resulted in any look-ups. However, the Main Bumper was the only countermeasure that had a significantly lower eye-drawing time as compared to Baseline. Washington Academy of Sciences 31 (/) ■a c o u 0) 10 Q. 3 JS^ O o o 4-> (U £ c ro (U Baseline (Normal Twelve-light Cargo Twelve-light ICC Main Bumper Brakelights) Box Bumper Lighting Configuration Figure 7. Mean Time to Look-up for Exposure 7 as a function of lighting configuration (means with a common letter [i.e., A or B] do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05 level). Experiment 2 Conclusions Experiment 2 results clearly indicated that the Main Bumper rear warning-light configuration performed the best with regard to reduced eye-drawing time. The other two test configurations did result in look-ups, but were not statistically significant. This result corresponds to previous research which has also shown that ganging multiple TED units together at bumper height can improve eye-drawing performance (Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). It appears that a reduction in eye-drawing power may result in static situations the further one positions the ganged- lighting above or below the main bumper of the lead vehicle. Discussion Experiment 1 results indicated that rear warning-light configurations containing the Main Bumper ganged-lighting performed the best. The two concepts that showed the most promise appeared to be the Main Bumper ganged-lighting and the Main Bumper/ICC Bumper. Experiment 2 results indicated that ganging multiple EED units together in both high and low locations resulted in Look-ups. fhe concept that showed the most promise appeared to once again be the Main Bumper ganged- lighting. After further consideration, researchers determined that any further lighting configurations tested should contain ganged-lighting. Fall 2010 32 Based on results from both Experiment 1 and Experiment 2, lighting configurations chosen to move forward to the dynamic Smart Road tests were the Main Bumper rear warning-light configuration, and a new hybrid configuration that contained the Main Bumper combined with the Twelve-light ICC Bumper. These would be tested in comparison to Baseline. The purpose of the dynamic Smart Road testing would be to select a final rear warning-light candidate based on eye-drawing performance. This final candidate would then be incorporated into a final ERS system that would utilize following-vehicle approach speeds collected via radar and activate the rear warning-lights based on collision avoidance algorithms. Acknowledgements The authors of this report wish to thank individuals at VTTI who contributed to the study in various ways: Andrew Alden, Jared Bryson, Sherri Cook, Carl Cospel, Vikki Fitchett, Travis Graham, Julie Jermeland, Eddie Llaneras, Andrew Marinik, David Mellichamp, Matthew Moeller, Lucas Neurauter, Matt Perez, Kelly Stanley, Jeff Taylor, and Jean Paul Talledo Vilela. This research was conducted under FMCSA contract DTMC75-07-D-00006, Task Order No. 2. The opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of FMCSA, or any other organization. Similarly, the opinions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the opinions of others who are not authors of this document. References Ishihara, S. (1917). Tests for colour-blindness. Handaya, Tokyo, Hongo Harukicho. Lee, S. E., Llaneras, E., Klauer, S. G., and Sudweeks, J. (2007). Analyses of Rear-End Crashes and Near-Crashes in the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study to Support Rear-Signaling Countermeasure Development. Report No. DOT HS 810 846. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Myers, R.S., Ball, K.K., Kalina, T.D., Roth, D.L., & Goode, K.T. (2000). Relation of useful field of view and other screening tests to on-road driving performance. Perceptual Motor Skills, 91(1): 279-90. Schaudt, W.A., Bowman, D., Trimble, T., Medina, A.F., Bocanegra, J., Baker, S., Marinik, A., Wierwille, W.W., and Hanowski, R.J. (in press). Enhanced rear signaling (ERS) for heavy trucks: Phase III - development of field operational test; final report. Contract No. DTMC75-07-D-00006, Task Order 2. Washington Academy of Sciences 33 Washington DC: U.S. Department of fransportation. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (Submitted September, 2010). Wierwille, W.W., Llaneras, R. E., and Neurauter, L. (2009). Evaluation of enhanced brake lights using surrogate safety metrics: Task 1 report: Further characterization and development of rear brake light signals. Report No. DOT HS 81 1 127. Washington, DC: U.S. Dept, of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Wierwille, W.W., Lee, S. E., and DeHart, M. C. (2003). Testing and optimization of high- level and stopped/slowly-moving vehicle rear-signaling systems: Enhanced rear lighting and signaling systems, Task 2 Report. Report no. DOT HS 809 597. Washington, DC: US Dept, of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Wierwille, W.W., Lee, S. E., DeHart, M. C. (2005). Project Final Report Emphasizing Task 3 Results: Test Road Experiment on High-Level Rear Lighting. Report No. DOT HS 809 864. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Winer, B.J., Brown, D.R., Michels, K.M., (1991). Statistical principles in experimental design (3'^'^ ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc. Fall 2010 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 35 Individual Differences in Resuming Interrupted Tasks^ Nicole E. Werner, David M. Cades, Deborah A. Boehm-Davis, Matthew S. Peterson, Sahar J. Alothman, Xiaoxue Zhang George Mason University Abstract Interruptions are a constant factor in our everyday lives. Each moment is filled with text messages, phone calls, emails and instant messages (to name a few). Every task we perform - from waking up in the morning and driving to work until getting into bed at night - is at risk of being interrupted. This is an issue because interruptions have been shown to have a detrimental effect on the performance of a task. This has implications in our everyday lives as well as in high risk environments such as driving. In fact, distracted driving has been implicated in 20% of crashes resulting in 6,000 deaths and over half a million injuries (www.distraction.gov, 2008). Because interruptions may have such negative effects, it is important to understand the cognitive mechanisms underlying the interruption process. Once the process is understood, efforts can be made to try and mitigate the harmful effects. This study was designed to tease apart the cognitive mechanisms used in resuming tasks; namely, memory for the goal or memory for the spatial location. In order to do this we manipulated the location and task type of the original task following an interruption. Rather than showing one type of performer, our results showed two groups. One group resumed fastest when the task and location of the original task were the same when resuming from an interruption and the other group performed fastest when the location of the original task was changed upon resumptionr. In order to investigate why people fell into one group or the other, we conducted a second study in which we measured individual differences in working memory span and spatial ability with the goal of predicting group membership. However, the individual differences measured did not predict group membership. This led us to believe that performance may result from a task specific response. This article is based upon a talk given by Nicole E. Werner at the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society’s mini-symposium on driver performance. The symposium was held at the National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia in conjunction with the Washington Academy of Sciences’ CapSci weekend event March 28‘'\ 2010. Fall 2010 36 Introduction Interruptions are a constant eactor in our everyday lives. Eaeh moment is filled with text messages, phone calls, emails and instant messages (to name a few). Every task we perform - from waking up in the morning and driving to work until getting into bed at night - is at risk of being interrupted. Other than the obvious annoyance factor, this barrage of interruptions is an issue because interruptions can have serious negative consequences. Research has shown that when recovering from an interruption, it takes longer to complete the overall task and an error is likely to be made upon resumption (Gillie & Broadbent, 1989; Trafton, Altmann, & Brock, 2005; Trafton, Altmann, Brock, & Mintz, 2003). That is, many of the tasks we perform daily - driving down the street or sending an email to your boss - are susceptible to the detrimental effects of interruptions. A startling figure suggests that workplace interruptions take 588 billion dollars per year from the national economy (Basex, 2005). This is not surprising given that in 40% of interrupted situations in an office environment, people failed to come back to their original tasks (O’Conaill &Frohlich, 1995). Interruptions are also prevalent in high-risk environments. In the healthcare domain, interruptions and distractions were shown to be a contributing risk factor for medical error in 126 incidents identified as “wrong site, wrong person, or wrong procedure” events (Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations, 2001). In addition, hospitals have attributed 43% of medication errors to distraction (Santell, 2005), and that number is sure to grow as new technologies continue to be introduced. Driving - a task that most of us perform daily - is especially susceptible to the damaging effects of interruptions. A study conducted at the University of Utah found that driving while using a phone affects a driver’s reaction time as much as being at the legal limit of alcohol consumption - a .08% blood alcohol level (www.distraction.gov). Further, distracted driving is implicated in 20% of crashes with a result of 6,000 deaths and over half a million injuries (www.distraction.gov, 2008). Interruptions become even more pertinent when one considers the number of daily interruptions that reach the highest office in the country. According to a recent Newsweek article, Barack Obama is the first Washington Academy of Sciences 37 president of the United States to earry his personal BlackBerry^'^ Smart Phone device, and even he is not immune to everyday interruptions (Begley, 2009). Although it is not likely that the BlackBerry^”^ will be the cause of a national crisis, it is clear that interruptions are an inescapable part of our lives. This is why it is important that research on interruptions explore how to better handle interruptions and mitigate the unfavorable consequences they create. To do this, we must first develop an understanding of the processes underlying interruptions and recovery. In other words, we must study the cognitive underpinnings of the interruption and recovery process. The process of recovering from an interruption has not yet been fully explored. The interruptions research to date suggests that interruptions lead to a longer time spent overall to complete tasks as well as a higher likelihood of an error occurring upon resumption from the interruption (Bailey & Konston, 2006; Cellier & Eyrolle, 1992; Zijlstra et al., 1999). But what exactly is being remembered when you resume a task after an interruption? From existing research on interruptions, we know that people use memory for the goal (task) in conjunction with memory for the spatial location of the primary task in order to resume from an interruption (Altmann & Trafton, 2002; Ratwani & Trafton, 2008). The Memory for Goals model is based on the ACT-R model (Anderson & Lebiere, 1998). ACT-R is a computational cognitive model that represents tasks as a series of nested goals in memory, all of which must be executed in order to complete a task. Each goal has a certain level of activation associated with it and at any given point in time; ACT-R selects the goal with the highest level of activation to perform next. Thus, goals with higher activation levels are selected and performed more quickly and accurately. According to ACT-R, the activation of these goals decays as a function of time. Therefore, the longer you are away from the task, the lower the activation will be, and the more difficult it will be to retrieve that goal and resume the task. The Memory for Goals model (Altmann & Trafton, 2002) applies the ACT-R framework to understanding interrupted task performance. It suggests that in order to more efficiently resume an interrupted task, you can use context, cues, and/or rehearsal of the goal or task in question to raise the activation level (Altmann & Trafton, 2002). Fall 2010 38 This model speaks directly to how people use memory for the goal or task to resume, but does not take into account the role of the memory for spatial location in the resumption process. The use of memory for the spatial location in resumption is supported by recent work that shows that in the absence of goal memory, or after a goal has decayed, memory for the spatial location can be used to facilitate resumption (Ratwani & Trafton, 2008). We now know that people use both the memory for the goal and for the spatial location to aid in resumption following an interruption, but these methods of resumption have previously been studied as separate factors. What is not completely clear is how the two may work in conjunction with each other. Does one dominate? Is it one or the other, or do they both contribute? If they both contribute, in what order? We designed an experiment to explore these mechanisms more closely in order to develop a better understanding of the resumption process in terms of both goal and spatial location memory. Experiment 1 examines the roles of goal memory and spatial memory in resuming an interrupted task. Experiment 2 examines whether individual difference measures such as working memory span and spatial ability can be used to predict the different types of performance that were found in Experiment 1 . Experiment 1 : Exploring the Role of Spatial and Goal Memory in Interrupted Task Performance To examine these questions, we created an experimental paradigm that taps either goal or spatial location mechanisms. In the typical interruption paradigm used in laboratory research, a person works on a primary task, is interrupted, and then returns to the primary task once they have completed the interrupting task. Typically, during the interruption, nothing about the primary task changes. This type of scenario does not allow for memory for the goal and memory for the spatial location to be teased apart. In this study, we developed a new paradigm to try and tease apart these two mechanisms. We created a task in which the person works on a task, receives an interruption task, and is then returned to either the same or a different task, appearing in either the same or a different location, thus permitting us to directly address both mechanisms. Based on the Memory for Goals model (Altmann & Trafton, 2002) and Ratwani and Trafton’ s (2008) work on spatial location memory, we expected that when participants resumed the same task in the same spatial location, they would resume fastest; when resuming a different task in a Washington Academy of Sciences 39 different spatial loeation, performance would be slower. Moreover, if the spatial location is more critical to the resumption process, participants would resume faster when resuming to the same location, even if the task type changed. However, if memory for the goal is more critical to the process of resumption, we expected to see faster resumption when the task remained the same, even if the location changed. Method Participants Fifty-four undergraduates from a large mid- Atlantic university participated in this experiment. They were recruited through the university’s online research recruitment site in which students sign up for posted experiments, and received course credit for participation. All tests were administered on the same day and the experiment lasted approximately 1 hour. Apparatus A 17” display monitor and a Windows-based personal computer were used to display the tasks. The computer was placed roughly 12 inches in front of the participant. The primary task display was divided into four equal parts - quadrants - by a vertical and horizontal line and the task appeared in one of those four quadrants - the quadrant paradigm (Figure 1). The interruption tasks were displayed in the center of an otherwise blank screen (Figure 2). All tasks were programmed in C++. Fall 2010 40 is the letter herea VOWELor a CONSONAtrr? .. fressVfor VOWaor'in^ for CONSONANT r * ^ G 5 Figure 2 The interruption task Measures Response time and accuracy were computed from a log recording of time-stamped keystrokes for the tasks. Resumption lag - the time between the end of the interruption and the participant’s first action back on the primary task - was the response time measure. Design and Procedure The experimental design was a 2x2 repeated measures design with resumption location (same/different) and task type upon resumption (same/different) as the repeated measures. Each participant completed 1 12 trials and each trial was made up of four problems - either four math or four verbal. After one trial (four problems), the quadrant in which the primary task was displayed, and the type of task (math or lexical decision) may have changed {i.e., either math or lexical decision). All tasks were randomized and counterbalanced; half of the trials began with math problems; half began with lexical decision problems. Thirty-two of the 112 trials were interrupted (approximately 30%). When an interruption occurred, it took place following the completion of the second task within a trial of four problems. Interruptions were either 10 Vowel/Consonant or 10 Even/Odd judgments. Of the 32 interruptions, half were Vowel/Consonant judgments and half were Even/Odd judgments for a total of 160 Even/Odd interruption problems and 160 Vowel/Consonant interruption problems. All interruption tasks were counterbalanced and randomized. Washington Academy of Sciences 41 Interruption trials ended when the participants had responded to the set of ten problems; the interruptions lasted for approximately seven to ten seconds. Upon completion of an interruption task, there were four possible resumption types - the same problem in the same quadrant, the same problem in a different quadrant, a different problem in the same quadrant, or a different problem in a different quadrant. There were 8 each of the four resumption conditions - Same Task-Same Tocation, Same Task-Different Tocation, Different Task-Same Location, Different Task- Different Location (counterbalanced and randomized). Tasks A mathematical and a verbal task were presented to test participants on a computer screen. The mathematical task consisted of the presentation of a simple addition problem with one digit addends and their summation. The instructions were to determine whether the summation was correct; if it was correct, participants were to press the ‘Z’ key; if not, they were to press the ‘M’ key. For the lexical decision task, participants indicated whether a string of letters presented on the computer screen constituted a word or a non-word (Balota, Cortese, & Pilotti, 1999). They did this by pressing the ‘Z’ key if the letters presented were a word, and pressing the ‘M’ key if they were a non- word. Task saliency was increased by using different colors for the lexical decision and the mathematical tasks. Two interruption tasks were used. When an interruption occurred, the interrupting task occluded the primary task and a number-digit pair {e.g., 5G) was displayed. Participants were asked to attend either to the letter or the number. For the letter task, participants had to determine whether the letter presented was a vowel or a consonant (Vowel/Consonant Task); for the number task, participants had to determine whether the number presented was even or odd (Even/Odd Task). Responses were indicated by pressing the ‘Z’ or the ‘M’ key, respectively. Results Outliers (in terms of reaction time) greater than two standard deviations from the mean were removed from the data. A 2x2 repeated measures ANOVA {n = 54) revealed only a main effect of task, F ( 1, 53) = 6.66, MSB = 1 1 3 1 33, /? < .05, F “ • 1 1 ^ but not a main effect of location, F < 1. Additionally, no interaction was found between the two, F (1, 53) = 1.51, = .22). On average, people performed better when they resumed Fall 2010 42 the same task than when they resumed a different task. A change in location of the primary task upon resumption did not affect performance. Upon a closer look at the data, however, there was a clear distinction between two patterns of performance. Following our initial predictions, approximately half of the participants {n = 29) were fastest at resuming to the same location with the same task. This group was dubbed the “expected group.” Surprisingly, the remaining participants {n = 25) showed an opposite pattern. These participants were fastest when resuming to a different location with a different task. We labeled them our “opposite group.” This prompted us to conduct additional exploratory analyses. Analysis of the data from the first group of participants (expected group) supported our original hypothesis that people would be fastest at resuming when they were returned to the same task in the same location (main effect of task, F (1, 28) = 14.18, MSE = 1 17878, /? < .001, = .57, and location, F {\, 28) = 36.57, MSE = 52987, /7 < .001, = .34, with no interaction, F (1,28) = 2.89,/? = .10). Analysis of the second (opposite) group confirmed that these participants were fastest when the primary task was displayed in a different location (main effect of location, F (1, 24) = 26.50, MSE = 98564, p < .001, r] = .52). These participants appeared to respond most quickly when they were returned to a new task (Mean response time = 1907.34 for the same task and 2236.29 for a different task); however, this finding was not reliable, (1, 24) < 1, . 05. Table 1 displays the means and standard deviations for all of the groups. Table 1 Means (Msec) and Standard Errors (in parentheses) for all groups Task Same Different Location Same Different Same Different All 21 13.02 2059.98 2179.27 2217.25 {n = 54) (72.60) (66.40) (75.17) (97.92) Expected 2046.00 2196.93 2178.57 2544.59 {n = 29) (93.28) (93.77) (100.54) (131.59) Opposite 2253.97 1936.43 2236.29 1907.34 {n = 25) (109.22) (85.00) (1 12.68) (1 1 1.22) Washington Academy of Sciences 43 Discussion Based on these findings, we cannot draw definitive conclusions regarding whether goal or spatial memory mechanisms are used in resuming the primary task. These data lend support for the roles ol goal memory and spatial location in resumption after an interruption, but they do not reveal the interaction of these concepts. Changes of any kind (environment or task) decrease performance for the Expected group while the Opposite group is only affected by a change in location, and this effect is positive (performance improves). It is not clear from our data why these two different groups of performers exist. Individual differences may be one way to explain these disparate groups. Individual differences have been shown to account for variance in performance (Cades, 2007; Cades, Kidd, & McKnight, 2008; Kidd, 2007; Kidd, Cades, & McKnight, 2008). A previous study on individual differences in interrupted task performance suggests that participants with a higher IQ perform more quickly and accurately when resuming a task after an interruption (Cades et al., 2010). Another possible reason for these individual differences is differences in working memory abilities. Kane and Engle (2002) showed that individuals with larger working memory spans are better at inhibiting irrelevant information, and may have an easier time resuming from an interruption when the task content and location change. These people may not perceive the task switch as an interruption and might be inhibiting the old interrupted task and therefore show more interference when resuming the same task. Experiment 2: Exploring the role of Individual Differences in Interrupted Task Performance The findings from Experiment 1 led us to develop a second study in which we explored why these two groups of performers (Expected and Opposite) exist. For this second study, we wanted to investigate the potential influence of individual differences on the performance of these two groups. Experiment 1 was designed to explore the role of changes in task and changes in location in resuming from an interruption. It is possible that differences in spatial ability and working memory span may have contributed to differential performance results in our first study. Experiment 2 explores this possibility by including measures of these abilities and examining their impact on performance. Fall 2010 44 Participants One hundred and twenty students from a large Mid-Atlantic University participated in this experiment for course credit. The same recruitment method from Experiment 1 was used except that students who had participated in Experiment 1 were excluded from participation. Design and Procedure The procedure followed was the same as in Experiment 1 except that in addition to completing the quadrant task, participants completed one measure of working memory span and two measures of spatial ability prior to completing the quadrant task. The OSpan task lasted approximately 15 minutes and the spatial tasks lasted five minutes per task. Tasks The tasks for Experiment 2 were the same for the quadrant paradigm. In addition, we had participants complete tests designed to measure working memory span and spatial ability. The measure of working memory span, the “OSpan” task (Bunting, Cowan, and Saults, 2006), was computer-based; the two spatial tasks (mental rotation and paper folding) were paper-based. The OSpan task couples retention and recall of letters with complex division problems, while the spatial tasks require the evaluation and comparison of objects. Results As in Experiment 1, outliers greater than two standard deviations from the mean were removed from the data. A 2x2 repeated measures ANOVA (n = 106) of the resumption lags revealed main effects of both task, F (1, 105) = 5.89, MSE = 215446.70, p < .05, = .05, and location, F (1, 105) = 14.42, MSE = 296795.59, p < .001, = .12, with faster Resumption Lags associated with same task and same content resumptions respectively. There was no significant interaction between task and location, F < 1. Similar to Experiment 1, two different patterns of results emerged. The 45 participants in the expected group showed only a main effect of task, with shorter resumption lags associated with same task resumption F (1, 44) = 7.86, MSE = 212479.41, p < .01, = .15. There was no significant interaction between task and location for this group, F < 1 . I he remaining 61 participants (the opposite group) showed only a main effect of location, F (1, 60) = 19.98, MSE = 308864.13, p < .001, q^ = .25, Washington Academy of Sciences 45 with shorter resumption lags assoeiated with resuming in a different location. There was no significant interaction between task and location for this group, F < 1. These results replicate the findings in Experiment 1 and provide further evidence for the existence of two groups of performers. The puipose of Experiment 2 was to explore two possible traits that might help to predict group membership for any given individual. To answer this question, a series of regressions were performed using spatial ability and working memory capacity to predict resumption lag in general and then resumption lag of each group of performers separately (Note: only 76 of the 106 participants completed all of these measures; therefore the following analyses reflect only these 76 participants). Taken together, Mental Rotation, Paper Folding, and OSpan scores did not explain a significant proportion of variance in Resumption Tag, R2 = .04, F (3, 72) = 1.09, p = .36. Further, none of the measures individually predicted Resumption Lags (see Table 2 for regression statistics). Table 2 Regression Statistics for Resumption Lags for all Participants in Experiment 2 Note: Values represent standardized coefficients. RE Mental Rotation .14 Paper Folding -.10 OSpan .18 Total R' .04 A final analysis was performed to determine if the three additional participant ability measures (Mental Rotation, Paper Folding, and OSpan) could be used to predict categorization of group membership (expected or opposite). These three predictors were entered into a logistic regression using group membership as the binary outcome variable. Neither the overall logistic regression equation, (3) = 2.94, p = .40, or any of the predictors individually were able to significantly predict in which group (expected or opposite) a person would fall (see Table 3 for logistic regression statistics). Fall 2010 46 Table 3 Logistic Regression Analyses Summaries p SEy^ Wald’s/ df P Mental .29 .22 1.73 1 .19 Rotation Paper .05 .09 .32 1 .57 Folding OS pan .003 .02 04 1 .85 General Discussion These experiments were designed to investigate the mechanisms by which people resume after being interrupted. We hypothesized that both spatial location and the specific task being resumed should affect performance, which they did. However, they had differential effects for different groups of participants. Although roughly half of our participants had the best performance (in terms of response time and accuracy) when they resumed the same primary task in the same location, the other half of the participants had the worst performance under these conditions. This second group performed better when they resumed a new task in a new location. The second experiment explored whether individual difference measures of working memory span and spatial ability could help predict in which group individuals would fall. However, these measures were not useful in this regard. This could be due to the nature of the specific tasks used in our experiments; that is, these tasks may not have tapped the specific working memory or spatial skills that we measured. For example, the simple one-answer questions used in the current paradigm may not have been complex enough to tax working memory, particularly since the task was restarted each time the person was interrupted. Further, because the interruptions occurred only after an individual problem was completed, participants - especially the opposite performers - may not have perceived the interruption task as an interruption but rather as a completely new task following the completion of another task. The opposite performers might have found this an easier resumption due to the perception that they were starting a new task each time, with no expectation of resuming a certain task or in a particular location. The findings for the expected performers suggest that they did indeed expect to return to the interrupted task. Because of this expectation Washington Academy of Sciences 47 to return, the task may be held in memory, increasing its activation level. This would mean that tasks which are more similar to the original primary task would be easier to resume than completely different tasks. The surprising findings from these two experiments point to several areas for future research. First, we still believe that individual differences do matter and that it is important to gain an understanding of their role in resumption. Flowever, it may be more important to ensure that all participants expect to return to the original primary task, as this feature may also be contributing to the observed performance differences. To do this, we will create a multistep primary task which can be interrupted prior to completion. The hope is that further investigation into this issue will help increase our understanding of the resumption process and specifically of the relationship between memory for the goal and the memory for the spatial location in resuming after an interruption. Once there is a deeper understanding of the cognitive mechanisms underlying how people recover from an interruption, efforts can be made to try and ameliorate the negative consequences. For many practical tasks, such as automobile driving or providing health care, it is almost impossible to completely avoid being interrupted. Therefore, if the process of recovering from interruptions is better understood, researchers can develop training methods or other aids to try and aid the recovery process. References Altmann, E. M., & Trafton, J. G. (2002). Memory for goals: An activation-based model. Cognitive Science, 26, 39-83. Anderson, J. R., & Lebiere, C. (Eds.). (1998). The atomic components of thought. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Bailey, B. P., Konstan, J. A., & Carlis, J. V. (2006). Measuring the effects of interruptions on task performance in the user interface. Paper presented at the IEEE Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 2000 (SMC 2000). Balota, D. A., Cortese, M. J., & Pilotti, M. (1999). Item-level analyses of lexical decision performance: Results fi^om a mega-study (Abstract). Paper presented at the 40th Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Los Angeles, CA. Basex. (2005). The cost of not paying attention; How interruptions impact knowledge worker productivity. http://www.basex.eom/web/tbghome.nsf/23e5e39594c064ee852564ae004fa010/ ea4eae828bd4 1 1 be8525742f0006cde3/$FlLE/CostOfNotPayingAttention. Basex Report.pdf September, 2005. Begley, S. (2009, February 16). Will the Blackberry Sink the Presidency? Newsweek. A recent article in Newsweek Magazine probes the possible disruptive effects of having a Blackberry in the Oval Office for the first time. Fall 2010 48 Bunting, M., Cowan, N., & Saults, J. S. (2006). How does running memory span work? Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 59( 10), 1691-1 700. Cades, D. M. (2007). Do the participants matter? Measuring individual differences over and above experimental manipulations. Paper presented at the 13th Biennial meeting of the International Society for the Study of Individual Differences, Giessen, Germany. Cades, D. M., Kidd, D. G., & McKnight, P. E. (2008). Where is the real-world variance? A generalizability theory approach to understanding interruptions in naturalistic environments (Abstract). Paper presented at the III European Conference of Methodology, Oviedo, Spain. Cades, D. M., Ratwani, R. M., Boehm-Davis, D. A., & Trafton, J. G. (2008). Resuming from interruptions: Searching for trends across multiple environments (Abstract). Paper presented at the Cognitive Science Society Conference 2008, Washington, DC. Cades, D. M., Kidd, D. G., Boehm-Davis, D. A. (2010). Individual Differences in Interrupted Task Performance: Effects of Adaptability, Impulsivity and Intelligence. Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 54''' Annual Meeting. Cellier J.-M. & Eyrolle H. (1992) Interference between switched tasks. Ergonomics, 35 (1), 25-36. Gillie, T., & Broadbent, D. (1989). What makes interruptions disruptive? A study of length, similarity, and complexity. Psychological Research, 50, 243-250. Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations. (2001). A follow-up review of wrong site surgery. Retrieved from http://www.jointcommission.org/SentilEvents/SentinelEventsAlert/sea_24.htm Kane, M. J., & Engle, R. W. (2002). The role of prefrontal cortex in working-memory capacity, executive attention, and general fluid intelligence: an individual- differences perspective. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 9(4), 637-671. Kidd, D. G. (2007). Tracking true differences: Enhancing the generalizability of a simple cognitive task using state and trait individual differences. Paper presented at the 13th Biennial Meeting of the International Society for the Study of Individual Differences, Giessen, Germany. Kidd, D. G., Cades, D. M., & McKnight, P. E. (2008). Generalizability theory in laboratory interruptions research: Estimating variance to improve future research (Abstract). Paper presented at the III European Conference of Methodology, Oviedo, Spain. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (2010). http://distraction.gov/stats-and- facts/index.html. O'Conaill B. & Frohlich D. (1995) Timespace in the workplace: Dealing with interruptions, in: Human Factors in Computing Systems: CHr95 Companion, New York: ACM Press, 262-263. Ratwani, R. M., & Trafton, J. G. (2008). Spatial memory guides task resumption. Visual Cognition, 16(^), 1001-1010. Santell, J. P. (2005). Medication errors: Experience of the United States Pharmacopeia (USP). Journal of Quality and Patient Safety, 31(2), 114-11 9. Trafton, J. G., Altmann, E. M., & Brock, D. P. (2005). Huh, what was 1 doing? Hom> people use environmental cues after an interruption. Paper presented at the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Orlando, FL. Washington Academy of Sciences 49 Trafton, J. G., Altmann, E. M., Brock, D. P., & Mintz, F. E. (2003). Preparing lo resume an interrupted task; Effects of prospective goal encoding and retrospective rehearsal. International Journal of Human Computer Studies, SS(5), 583-603. Ziljstra, F. R. H., Roe, R. A., Leonora, A. B., & Krediet, 1. (1999). Temporal factors in mental work: Effects of interrupted activities. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 72(2), 164-185. Fall 2010 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences Psychoactive Medications, Stimulants, Hypnotics, and Nutritional Aids: Effects on Driving Alertness and Performance 51 Gerald P. Krueger' Krueger Ergonomics Consultants Alexandria, VA Abstract This article reviews the effects various psychoactive chemical substances have on roadway driving alertness and performance. Of concern are prescribed and self-administered medications, other drugs, stimulants, hypnotics, and nutritional supplements, including energy drinks that drivers sometimes ingest. This article discusses possible application of such compounds to maintain attentive driving, with special focus on how chemical substances affect the safe driving performance of commercial long-haul truck drivers and bus/motorcoach drivers. Cautions and recommendations are offered for highway safety advocates, employers, commercial drivers, and for the driving public. Introduction A RECENT Transportation Research Board (TRB) truck and bus safety project looked at the literature pertaining to medications, drugs, and nutritional supplements that commercial drivers might use for inducing needed sleep or to sustain alertness during on-the-job driving (Krueger, Leaman and Bergoffen, 2011). The project addressed psychoactive effeets of chemical substances on operator performanee to understand the effects on performances involved in driving: e.g. vigilance, monitoring, manipulating vehiele controls, psychomotor tracking, route-planning, following direetions, navigating on eountry roads, through traffic, and so on. Initially, the purpose was to determine if the newest generation of sleeping pills (hypnotics), the new classes of stimulants, and easily available nutritional supplements could add to a collection of suitable This article is based upon a talk by the same title given by Gerald P. Krueger at the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society’s mini-symposium on driver performance. The symposium was held at the National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia in conjunction with the Washington Academy of Sciences’ CapSci weekend event March 28'*’, 20 1 0. Fall 2010 52 countermeasures to commercial driver fatigue. Ultimately, the project identified performance effects of several drugs, medications, and other psychoactive chemical substances that may have significance not only for commercial drivers and public transportation operators, but for other high safety risk occupations as well. This paper discusses some of that literature. Effects of Chemicals on Performance In describing the effects of a variety of chemical substances on driving performance four important issues arise. 1 . Drug Definitions and Categorization 2. Chemical Substance Effects and Driving Performance 3. Drug and Alcohol Influences in Crash Statistics 4. Drug Influences on Performance Compared to Alcohol Effects The first issue categorizes numerous classes of psychoactive chemical substances. As the aphorism goes, “one cannot paint them all with the same paint brush.” For example, many vehicle drivers, commercial drivers or not, take legitimate medications prescribed by medical providers to treat illnesses or diseases. Many medications carry caution warnings regarding potential adverse effects on driving behavior. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) provide an extensive list of “controlled drugs,” Schedules I through V, (CFR Title 21 Chapter II) classified by their potential for abuse and physical and psychological dependence. Examples of Schedule II controlled substances include opioids often prescribed to treat pain; and stimulants sometimes prescribed for narcolepsy or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Depressants may be prescribed to alleviate anxiety or to treat certain sleep disorders such as insomnia. Classification is based upon numerous factors. While there are concerns about how such drugs may affect driving performance, in some instances people afflicted by certain medical conditions may actually drive better when using some prescribed drugs, presumably because the drug treatment works to assist patients with their particular maladies. There are special applications of both hypnotics and stimulants used operationally under safety-controlled conditions for arduous military missions. Drivers also self-administer over-the-counter (PTC) drugs, such as antihistamines for seasonal allergies; or they take meds to relieve muscle Washington Academy of Sciences 53 aches, pains and other ailments. Some drivers take vitamins, nutritional supplements, and diet pills. Of course, there also are the illicit drug^s {e.g. cocaine, amphetamines, marijuana) - that, like alcohol, adversely affect driving, and which public laws prohibit because of their abuse potential, and their frequent involvement in crimes. The U.S. National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA) classifies illicit drugs into seven major drug categories on the basis of their psychoactive effects on the central nervous system (CNS). Examples of drugs in each class are listed in Table 1. Most of these drugs ean dramatically and adversely affect driving, but they are not the focus of the search for fatigue countermeasures and so diseussion here is limited. Drug Category Examples of Drugs in Category 1 . Cannabinoids marijuana, hashish 2. CNS Depressants barbiturates, benzodiazepines, flunitrazepam, GHB, methaqualone 3. Dissociative anesthetics ketamine, PCP and analogs 4. Hallucinogens LSD, mescaline, psilocybin 5. Opioids and codeine, fentanyl and analogs, heroin, morphine, opium. Morphine Derivatives oxycodone HCL, hydrocodone bitartrate, acetaminophen 6. CNS Stimulants amphetamines, methamphetamines, cocaine, MDMA (ecstasy), methylphenidate, nicotine {cajfeine and ephedrine are not illegal.) 7. Other Compounds anabolic steroids, dextromethorphan, inhalants Table 1; NIDA’s drug classification (NIDA 2006) A lot of the information about licit and illicit drugs focuses on the presence of such drugs in drivers involved in roadway crashes. The Ameriean Medical Association (AMA) published extensive information on the driving-related-effects of legally prescribed drugs (2003); as did the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA, 2005); and the International Council on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety (ICADTS, 2006). In reviewing such lists, NHTSA’s David Shinar stated that: “short of saying that all drugs are bad (and even that statement is not true) it is difficult to have a general discussion about drug effects on performance because different drugs have different pharmaeological properties that cause different physiological and physical signs and symptoms, and consequently have different effects on attitudes and behavior in general, and on driving-related attitudes and behaviors in Fall 2010 54 particular” (Shinar, 2007). Shinar says it is nearly impossible and (fortunately) unnecessary to discuss separately each of the drugs in the categories identified in the governmental sanctioned lists mentioned above (Shinar, 2005; 2007). This discussion is limited to roadway safety, so I look at chemical substances “most likely to be ingested by drivers, especially commercial drivers” and then addresses how these chemicals are likely to impact vehicle driver performance, safety, and health. Accordingly, this paper looks at: (a) hypnotics and sleep promoting compounds; (b) stimulants and alertness producing compounds; and (c) hormonal, herbal, dietary, and energy boosting supplements. The second issue presents research findings that relate to driver performance. Relating laboratory studies to the performance of drivers in on-the-road scenarios can be tenuous. Drug results which affect cognitive performance on generic psychological tasks in a laboratory experiment cannot always readily transfer to real roadway experiences. For example, low doses of a drug given to a lab test participant may produce slight performance effects; these effects can become more pronounced when the nature of the task is intensified, e.g., when cognitive workload is increased, when subjects multi-task (Pickworth, Rohi'er and Fant, 1997; Shinar, 2007). Driving involves many task elements, including physically handling the vehicle by steering, shifting gears, braking, staying within the lanes on the road, manipulating through physical obstacles and traffic, and so on. Driving also involves psychological and cognitive aspects of reasoning, judgment, decision-making, reaction time, attention to details, keen visual perception during vigilance (visual, auditory, and kinesthetic vigilance), monitoring of information, navigating between locations, and responding to road hazards. Stating that a drug affects performance begs the question “what is implied by performance,” and how much of a drug effect is unacceptable for accomplishing individual tasks, completing a job, or violating safety principles and risking driving incidents. In June 2005 the FRB’s Committee on Alcohol, Other Drugs and Transportation held a symposium to discuss the role of Drugs in Traffic. Experts addressed involvement of drugs (licit and illicit) in traffic injuries and deaths. In his presentation on Drug Effects and their Significance for Traffic Safety, Shinar (2005) suggested implicit assumptions that are made in the study of drugs and their effects on performance: Washington Academy of Sciences 55 a. Psychoactive drugs should have an etfect not only on mood but also on cognitive and psychomotor functioning. Furthermore, these effects should be reflected in performance on measures related to these functions (such as stability, reaction time, speech) and should reflect some significant deviation from the norm. b. These cognitive changes are expected to be of such magnitude that they are both observable to a trained person, and quantifiable with some standardized tests. c. Since driving is a fairly complex psychomotor and cognitive task, drug impairments should affect driving performance, and usually in a negative manner. d. People who take drugs often drive while under their influence, either because they do not appreciate their impairments or because their judgment is impaired. e. The resulting Driving Under the Influence of Drugs (DUI) problem can be dealt with in much the same way as DWI (Driving While Intoxicated - with ethanol). Source: D. Shinar in TRB Symposium proceedings, 2005, page 68. This paper focuses not on the role of drugs in crashes, but rather on the effects of chemicals on driving performance, thus making “measures of performance” important to driver performance on the roadway. Stating a particular drug “alters a person’s critical flicker fusion: CFF,” or that it “adversely affects psychomotor tracking, or reaction time, or judgment, or decision-making,” without offering practical examples of how to apply the finding to actual driving necessitates a “stretch of inference” for understanding the implications. Babkoff and Krueger (1992) identified eight research criteria (mostly measures of reaction time and performance accuracy) to examine in experiments that decide whether to use a stimulant to ameliorate degradation attributable to excessive sleep loss. But even reaction time measures are not always straight-forward indications of equipment operator performance. In roadway crash investigations, specialists point to four identifiable stages associated with drivers’ perception-response time (detection, identification, decision, and response) immediately prior to a crash sequence demonstrating that in-depth assessments of driver reaction time are not a trivial matter in accident reconstruction (Olson, 2007). Driving, which is a fairly complex psychomotor and cognitive task, is also a planned behavior. Different people employ different strategies to drive from one point to another, e.g. trip planning, navigation, Fall 2010 56 reacting to specific situations. Involving chemical substances makes cause-and-effect analyses more difficult and can obfuscate even the simplest explanations of drug-induced response times. For example, people under the effects of alcohol often feel over-confident in their driving, and they speed. In contrast, people under the effects of marijuana often feel impaired, and they tend to drive slower. Both drugs, however, impair judgment and the ability to respond correctly to emergency situations (Shinar, 2005; 2007). There also are individual differences in metabolism. Behavioral responses vary in their reactions to medications, drugs, and other chemicals. This can be quite significant. Some people manage okay with chemical substances or medications that would severely impair another person’s behavioral responses (McBay, 1997; Shinar, 2007). The question becomes how to relate laboratory-based psychological and physiological performance measures to driver behavior in “real world” performance on the highway. The “application leap” from lab-based findings to the “real world” often is not easy to make. Researchers usually agree however, that if a drug adversely affects a fine- tuned measure of human performance {e.g., reaction time, signal detection, precision tracking) in a laboratory study, such drug-affected performance is not likely to improve while the individual is driving on the roadway; performance on the road might even be worse. The third issue assesses whether drug-involved crash statistics can show if drugs or alcohol actually were factors in causing the crashes; or if drugs were just present at the time of the crashes. Numerous reports and statistical treatises of highway accidents document large numbers of drivers, injured or dead in crashes, who had evidence of drugs or alcohol in their bodies. These determinations are often made using blood or tissue samples taken soon after the crashes {e.g. NTSB, 1990; DeGier, 2005). In citing studies reporting traffic and drug statistics for 13 European countries DeGier (2005) indicated the quest for insights on the prevalence of drugs other than alcohol in road traffic is hampered by methodological problems encountered with epidemiological studies of drugs and driving. DeGier estimated the presence of illicit drug use in the general driver population, at least in Europe, is in the range of 1-5%, whereas the prevalence of medicinal drugs affecting driving performance is higher (5- 10%). In an overview of studies on drug impaired driving in the United States, Jones, Shinar and Walsh (2003) reported benzodiazepines were found in 4% of non-crash-involved drivers. It was estimated that in 2005, Washington Academy of Sciences 57 about 1.7% of drivers with commercial driver’s licenses (CDL) used controlled substances, and 0.2% used alcohol (>0.04 BAC) while performing their duties (U.S. DOT, Gruberg, 2007). In 1994, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) issued regulations for safety-sensitive employees in transportation industries requiring testing “for use, in violation of law or Federal Regulation, of alcohol and drugs listed in the Controlled Substances Act.” The DOT said drivers shall not use controlled substances, except when the use is pursuant to the instructions of a “physician who is familiar with the driver’s medical history and assigned duties, and has advised the driver that the prescribed substance or drug will not adversely affect a driver’s ability to safely operate a commercial motor vehicle” (CFR 391.41-b-12). Some controlled substances (“legal drugs”) obtained only by medical prescription are known to have adverse effects on driving. These include hypnotic sleep aids such as diazepam, flurazepam, and loprazolam, and various antidepressants and antihistamines. Some medications influence vision, vigilance, and even impulsiveness. Problems such as driver fatigue, lack of attention, vigilance deficits, suicidal, and aggressive tendencies can contribute to crashes. Over-the-counter medications which are known to be psychoactive include drugs such as the antihistamines containing diphenhydramine (e.g. Benadryl®). Tests for these drugs, and many others, are rarely performed on impaired vehicle drivers (commercial drivers or not). If two or more drugs are found in a vehicle driver, the combined effect on performance must be considered and evaluated (McBay, 1997). In investigations of aviation and ground vehicle crashes, drug- crash causal conclusions are drawn by inference; and this is done with some uncertainty about the veracity of those conclusions. McBay (1997) addressed whether enough is known about the effects of drugs on driving performance to permit expert witnesses to testify in court cases about the likely impairment effects of drugs on a driver. Adequate methods are available for the identification and determination of the amount of dmgs through examination of blood, urine, hair, sweat, saliva, and other specimens taken from drivers shortly after crashes. The major problem is relating the drug concentrations to actual driving impairment. Specimens other than blood may be useful in determining drug use, but not in determining whether an active drug in the body affected driving performance at the time of a crash. While concentrations of drugs and Fall 2010 58 metabolites in body fluids can be determined, correlating them with driving impairment or improvement is more difficult (McBay, 1997). In 1983, a panel of medical experts reached a consensus concerning drug concentrations and driving impairment. The panel reported: “In order to establish that use of a drug results in impairment of driving skills and to justify a testing program to respond to this hazard, certain facts must be available: (1) The drug can be demonstrated in laboratory studies to produce a dose-related impairment of skills associated either with driving or with related psychomotor functions. (2) Concentrations of the drug and/or its metabolites in body fluids can be accurately and quantitatively measured and related to the degree of impairment produced. (3) Such impairment is confirmed by actual highway experience. (4) Simple behavioral tests can be done at the roadside by police officers with modest training, to indicate the presence of such impairment to the satisfaction of the courts. (5) A range of concentrations of the drug can be incorporated in laws relating to impaired driving as ipso facto evidence. [Blanke et al., 1985; McBay, 1989; 1997] McBay, Shinar, and others agree the above criteria have been met for just one drug: ethanol (alcohol). The adverse effects of alcohol on driving performance are well-established. Experts can testify to its effects based upon blood and breath alcohol concentrations (BAG). However, much of what is known about alcohol and driving performance is not available for other drugs. It is not certain the above listed criteria can be met for most other drugs of concern to highway safety (McBay, 1997; Shinar, 2007). The fourth issue is that researchers often report lab study drug effects by comparing them to the better-identified effects of ethanol (alcohol) on performance. Research on alcohol effects on performance provides a “baseline” for understanding how much impact other chemical substances have on driver performance. This is because: • predictable processing of alcohol (ethanol) in the body is well- understood, • the effects of alcohol on so many forms of performance have been thoroughly studied and described, and Washington Academy of Sciences 59 • many people have experienced alcohol-impaired performance (even while driving), thus they can readily relate to comparisons that explain the effects of other chemical substances researched in experiments. (Shinar, 2007) Alcohol effects are so consistent that the World Health Organization recommended that alcohol-related impairment serve as a benchmark for other impairments (Willette and Walsh, 1983). Compared to other chemical substances, alcohol is a very simple drug. It spreads quickly and evenly throughout different body tissues so that blood alcohol levels correspond to concentrations of alcohol in the brain. The amount of impairment is directly related to the amount of alcohol that enters the blood, and consequently the relationship between alcohol intake, blood concentration and impairment is quite reliable and straightforward (Moskowitz, 2007; Shinar, 2007). Alcohol affects just about every capacity we have, including perceptual, attentional, cognitive, decision, memory and motor functions - all critical for safe driving (Ogden and Moskowitz, 2004). The impairing effects are witnessed at very low alcohol levels, and as the amount of alcohol in the blood rises, the number of functions impaired and the degree of impairment increases (Moskowitz and Robinson, 1998; Ogden and Moskowitz, 2004). The literature contains many alcohol and psychomotor performance studies - a number of which were done in driving simulators. Moskowitz and Robinson (1988) examined the effects of low levels of alcohol (BAC<0.10% or less). They summarized results for nine different driving-related functions and behavior categories: reaction time, tracking, vigilance, divided attention, information processing, visual function, perception, psychomotor skills, and driving skill. They reported alcohol in almost any amount impairs driving or driving-related skills, for all functions studied; and as the BAC level increases, impainnent increases. All aspects of driving behaviors studied are impaired at BAC = 0.10% or higher. There are differences among cognitive functions in their sensitivity to alcohol. The most sensitive function - producing impainnent at the lowest levels of BAC - is divided attention. Approximately 50% of the studies demonstrate impairment in divided attention at BAC<0.05%. The next most sensitive function is tracking, with similar percentages showing impairment at BAC = 0.05% - significant because tracking and divided attention are inherent in almost all driving tasks. The least sensitive function is vigilance, with very few studies showing impairment below BAC = 0.08%. Moskowitz and Robinson concluded that although some people may be more affected by small concentrations than others, “there is Fall 2010 60 no lower threshold level below which impairment does not exist for alcohol.” A driving simulator study by Roehers et al. (1994) demonstrated that sleepiness and low-dose ethanol combine to impair simulated automobile driving, an impairment that extends beyond the point at which breath ethanol concentrations (EEC) reach zero. Holloway (1994) concluded that since alcohol sensitivity can vary from time to time, person to person, and situation to situation, the setting of a “safe” BAG will always be arbitrary, being based on low, but non-zero incidence of effects below that level. In his book Traffic Safety and Human Behavior, Shinar wrote: “Despite the numerous studies on the effects of drugs on driving related skills, on driving, and on crashes; and in contrast to the role of alcohol in driving and highway safety, we are amazingly ignorant of the role of drugs other than alcohol in driving and safety” (Shinar, 2007, pg. 434). Alcohol is a singular drug with specific demonstrated effects, while other “drugs” have different effects. These drugs are not evenly absorbed in all body tissues, or even in the same brain centers; they do not necessarily have the same or similar physiological and behavioral effects; and they often do not exhibit a direct dose-response relationship. Unlike the case for alcohol, the case for similar links of other drugs to that of cognitive performance (enhancements or decrements) is not straightforward. Different sampling techniques and different residuals of the same drug have very different implications for the presence of drug impairment. For example, marijuana (with the active ingredient THC) is absorbed in fatty tissues and is then released back into the blood and urine as a metabolite that has no psychoactive effects. Thus, detection of THC in the blood indicates recent ingestion; but detection of marijuana metabolites in the urine or the blood only indicates that marijuana has been used - however the use could be as long as a few weeks ago. Additionally, drugs other than alcohol are often taken in combination (also in combination with alcohol) and depending on the specific drugs, the specific doses, and the user’s past experience with the drugs, the joint effects may be additive, synergistic, or antagonistic, and generally very difficult to predict (Shinar, 2007). Washington Academy of Sciences 61 Influence of Chemicals on Driver Performance The next three sections describe many psychoactive chemical substances which occasionally may be ingested by drivers. J he locus is on commercial drivers. Further information can be located in the 1 RB Synthesis report by Krueger, Teaman and Bergoffen (201 1). Hypnotics And Sleep Inducing Compounds Obtaining sufficient sleep — Maintaining alertness while operating a vehicle is critical for commercial drivers, as well as operators of other equipment that involve high risk safety concerns {e.g. trains, airplanes, marine vessels, construction equipment). The best solution is to establish a suitable work-rest schedule and to adopt a sleep management plan for use during extended work hours — commonly encountered during over-the- road operations. The U.S. DOT’s Flours of Service (HOS) rules for commercial drivers permit a 14-hour work day (duty shift) of which 1 1 hours can be driving; but require that on-duty periods be followed by 10- hours off-duty (the so-called 14-10 schedule). Under these HOS rules, implemented in 2004, drivers are better able to match their working hours with known periodicities in circadian rhythm physiology. Applying principles of circadian physiology is central to driver alertness. These HOS should make it easier for drivers to have time during their weekly work schedules to obtain the body’s desired 7-8 or more hours of restorative sleep per 24-hr day. If commercial drivers cannot obtain 7-8 hours of sleep in one contiguous bout, they should obtain at least 4-5 hours of uninterrupted (core) sleep, and then augment that sleep with supplemental naps (O’Neill, Krueger and Van Hemel, 1996). However, delivery schedules for commercial drivers do not always permit time to take naps. Many drivers are unable to obtain adequate sleep at the right physiological times on the 24-hour-clock {e.g., after driving through the night it is difficult to sleep during daylight). The details of work-rest scheduling are beyond the scope of this paper. This article addresses whether commercial drivers might judiciously employ short-acting hypnotic or sleep-promoting medications to induce and maintain sleep as part of their sleep management plan; and upon awakening, if there are no aftereffects, to resume and maintain safe driving practices. Sleep promoting compounds include: (1) depressant medications such as benzodiazepines and other closely-allied prescription hypnotics, (2) prescription non-benzodiazepine medications, (3) the Fall 2010 62 synthetic sleep- inducing hormone melatonin, (4) antihistamines containing diphenhydramine, and (5) alcohol when used as a sleep promoter. As expected immediately after ingesting a sleep aid, performance is adversely affected. Decreased performance effects are reported for benzodiazepines, alternative non-benzodiazepine drugs, antihistamines, tricyclic antidepressants, narcotic analgesics and antipsychotics (O’Hanlon and DeGier, 1986; Ramaekers, 2003; Vermeeren, 2004; DeGier, 2005). Drivers are more concerned, however, with the performance effects that might linger after one has awakened from a purposeful drug- induced sleep period {e.g. a nap). The goal is to identify sleep-promoting compounds that commercial drivers can use to assist them to fall asleep, to obtain restful, restorative sleep; and then to ensure there are no after effects {e.g. sleep inertia, drug hangover) or safety implications after awakening and resuming driving. Benzodiazepines — Benzodiazepines, a family of anxiolytic agents that produce central nervous system (CNS) depression, are classified as schedule IV depressants. They are commonly prescribed for treating insomnia and anxiety. These drugs can help a person fall asleep quickly, can reduce the number of awakenings, and increase the total sleep time (Mendelson, 2005). Benzodiazepines are marketed as minor tranquilizers, sedatives, hypnotics, or anticonvulsants. A drug’s ‘"half-life” is the time required for the concentration of the drug in the body to reduce to exactly one-half. The elimination half-lives of benzodiazepines vary widely, from the relatively short-acting triazolam (2-4 hrs) to intermediate agents such as temazepam (8-12 hrs); and some benzodiazepines have active metabolites that prolong their effects, for example, the half-life of diazepam is much longer - lasting up to 4 days. Torazepam (Ativan), alprazolam (Xanax), and oxazepam, each have shorter half-lives ~ 10-20 hrs. While many benzodiazepines are well-tolerated, at higher doses they impair concentration and produce sedative effects even after their drug effects might be expected to have worn off. The active effects of benzodiazepines may include sedation, depression, disorientation, daytime drowsiness, and impaired balance, and with increased dosage they produce increased side-effects. While the margin of safety associated with these drugs is considerable, overdose can occur and continuous use for several months can result in psychological or physical dependence. The effects of benzodiazepines are enhanced if accompanied by alcohol; and mixing some benzodiazepines with alcohol can have toxic effects. Washington Academy of Sciences 63 The impairing effects of benzodiazepines on perlormancc vary among the different types of benzodiazepines (Wittenborn, 1979). Impairment is generally found with higher doses, and within 2-6 hours of drug administration. While effects are drug specific, there are observable impairments in the accomplishment of simple repetitive acts, as well as impaired learning and immediate memory; but overall, relatively little indication that well-established higher mental faculties are adversely involved. Berghaus and Grass (1997) described performance impairment on driving-related psychomotor and perceptual tasks as attributed to benzodiazepines. For more detail see Krueger, Leaman and Bergoften (2011). Medical providers who prescribe hypnotic medication for drivers must carefully weigh the potential risks of performance impairment post awakening against the benefit of obtaining a good night sleep. Application of low doses of the “shorter half-life” drugs may be useful as sleep aids for those doing shift work or inducing sleep during overseas flights where the body has to adjust to a different time zone in a relatively short time. Non-benzodiazepine alternatives — Medications developed as alternatives to benzodiazepines are now prescribed more often as sleep promoting compounds. Some of the more common ones, often identified as non-benzodiazepines, are zolpidem, zaleplon, eszopiclone, ramelteon, and indiplon. With its relatively short half-life of 2.5 hours, zolpidem is especially useful for promoting short- to moderate-length sleep durations (of 4 to 7 hours) when shorter sleep opportunities occur at times not normally conducive to sleep, such as for taking daytime naps. Daytime naps are sometimes difficult to maintain, especially in non-sleep-deprived individuals. The short half-life of zolpidem can provide short-sleeps while minimizing the possibility of postnap sleep inertia hangovers. Thus zolpidem can make it feasible to take advantage of a nap without significantly lengthening the postnap time needed to ensure drug effects have dissipated before resuming performance of one’s job. James O’Hanlon and his colleagues in the Netherlands compared effects of benzodiazepines and the newer non-benzodiazepines (O’Hanlon and DeGier, 1986). In a meta-analysis of those studies, DeGier (2005) pointed out (1) many prescribed hypnotics have a detrimental effect on driving (sleep-inertia hangover effects) even in the afternoon of the day following administration of the sleep promoting compound, and (2) most newer non-benzodiazepines with shorter half-lives do not have sueh detrimental effects, or at least they are substantially less. Military medical Fall 2010 64 research verified such findings, and controlled use of the alternative non- benzodiazepines is approved for some military operations (Caldwell et ah, 2009). Such findings assist health care providers to offer relatively safe alternative sleep-inducers (short acting hypnotics) to drivers who need hypnotic medications {e.g. for insomnia with commercial drivers). The availability of non-benzodiazepines has led to a drop in the use of benzodiazepines for induction of sleep, even for treatment of insomnia. Melatonin - Melatonin, a hormone secreted into the bloodstream in response to the onset of darkness, helps to make us sleepy (frequently referred to as our body’s natural sleeping pill (Reiter and Robinson, 1995). Melatonin is synthesized in the pineal gland (in the center of the brain) during the dark phase of the daily light/dark cycle, and thus is intimately tied into our circadian rhythm physiology. Melatonin’s effect on body temperature is one of the keys to its ability to enhance sleep. Melatonin offers good potential for helping people to feel drowsy, to fall asleep, to deal with insomnia, to sleep better, and to assist in re-setting people’s circadian clocks during work shift changes {i.e. coping with work shift- lag). For over a decade synthetic melatonin has been used for that purpose by some commercial drivers (Krueger, 1996-2010, personal communication). Hughes and Badia (1997) examined melatonin (in doses from 1 to 40 mg) for inducing naps, followed after awakening 4-hours post-dose by tests of performance, memory, and fatigue. They found no carry-over fatigue and no negative effects on memory or performance. Today, researchers generally induce sleep with considerably lower doses of from 0.1 to 0.3 mg of melatonin. Most synthetic preparations of melatonin are tablets ranging from 1-5 mg each without specifying the actual quantity or the quality of melatonin that is actually in the tablets. Unlike benzodiazepines which can become less effective alter only two or three nights of use, melatonin does not lose its effectiveness over time, and may even become a more effective sleep aid with chronic use. A low dose of synthetic melatonin can be used to “trick” the body into thinking that darkness has arrived earlier, especially if one enters a darkened room to sleep (Santhi et al., 2008). This has obvious implications for shift- workers and for commercial drivers whose work and rest schedules are subject to frequent time-of-day changes. Climbing into a darkened truck sleeper-berth after taking synthetic melatonin is a napping strategy advocated and used by commercial drivers. It seems to work better for some people than for others. Washington Academy of Sciences 65 Alcohol as a sleep inducing aid - Perhaps the most commonly used technique for inducing sleep or to resolve insomnia is to drink modest amounts of alcohol, perhaps a glass of wine, or one or two beers belore bedtime to relax and prepare to fall asleep. Reiter and Robinson (1995) estimated 20% of insomniacs rely on alcohol to relax their muscles, ease their anxiety, and help them fall asleep. A “nightcap” drink may help a person fall asleep more quickly, but several hours later, as the alcohol oxidizes in the body, the sedative effect of the alcohol wears off, and a rebound effect may occur, making the person restless and agitated. In the second half of the night alcohol may disrupt dreaming (REM) sleep, thus making the sleep less restful and unlikely to restore alertness. In that sense, alcohol is not a very effective sleep aid. Drinking a larger amount of alcohol before bedtime may also result in “hangover effects” upon awakening, presenting symptoms of headache, grogginess, sleep inertia, and decreased alertness. Antihistamines as sleep promoters — For decades the most common effective treatment for seasonal allergies has been to take antihistamines of the diphenhydramine-hydrochloride-type that counter actions of histamine, a naturally occurring chemical in the body (Kay, 2000). Diphenhydramine often is used to treat the common cold, to suppress coughs, and to treat motion sickness {e.g. in Dramamine®), and for reactions to insect bites, hives and rashes. Antihistamines also produce mild to moderate sedative effects that cause drowsiness and sedation. A large segment of the sleep-deprived population occasionally turns to antihistamines (with diphenhydramine) for assistance in falling asleep. It is this feature which is of principal interest here. Antihistamines containing diphenhydramine are accompanied by warnings not to use them when driving, operating machinery, or performing other hazardous activities, as they may cause dizziness or drowsiness. Users also are cautioned that when taking diphenhydramine, alcohol may further increase drowsiness and dizziness. Many other commercially available, OTC sleep aids, {e.g. Compoz, Nytol, Sleep-Exe, Somnitabs, etc.) contain antihistamine as the active ingredient - most often diphenhydramine. However, to be effective as sleep aids, many such antihistamine products would have to contain a higher dosage of diphenhydramine than the amount normally contained in each antihistamine pill/tablet. Somnitabs®, for example, contain 25 mg of diphenhydramine per tablet. Some people in search of a suitable sleep aid take Dramamine®, normally used for prevention and treatment of nausea. Fall 2010 66 vomiting, or dizziness associated with motion sickness, as it normally contains 50 mg of diphenhydramine which may relax them somewhat, and help them to fall asleep. Kay et al. (1997) conducted experiments demonstrating that histamine- 1 receptor antagonists used to treat allergic disorders frequently cause sedation. Most sleep inducing applications recommend a person take antihistamine tablets at least 30 minutes to 1-hour prior to the desired sleep period. Generally, these cause drowsiness and bring about shorter sleep onset latencies (versus placebo). However, some findings also indicate antihistamines often leave next-day drowsiness (Mendelson, 2005). The concern for transportation safety is two-fold: (1) drivers who regularly take antihistamines for allergy relief may encounter performance impairments while driving, due to the drowsiness effects of maintenance levels of diphenhydramine in the body; and (2) occasionally taking antihistamines expressly for its sleep promoting characteristics may leave one with sleep inertia hangover effects on performance upon awakening, and these may impact driving safety. Table 2 summarizes some key points of employing various sleep- promoting compounds in operational settings, whether for commercial transportation purposes or for some other work environments. Stimulants And Alertness Enhancing Compounds In the commercial driving community wake-promoting compounds (stimulants) are often tried to maintain alertness, and to sustain safe driving performance. A variety of stimulants include those in the schedule II drug category, such as amphetamine-like compounds, but they also include the two common, less threatening stimulants: caffeine and nicotine. Some stimulant drugs have a role in the clinical treatment of conditions of excessive sleepiness attributable to sleep disorders {e.g. narcolepsy), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and depression (Mitler and O’Malley, 2005; Kay, Michaels and Pakull, 2009). Because their pharmacologic profiles are diverse, clinicians base selection of stimulating agents on a variety of factors: time of onset, length of activity, degree of tolerance in chronic use, expected side effects, abuse liability, and importantly, knowledge of whether and how stimulants might affect a person’s job performance. Washington Academy of Sciences 67 Table 2. Operational Consequences of Sleep-promoting Compounds Benzodiazepines Rx Trade Name Average Ilalf- Lil'e Recommended Use Comments / Cautions Temazepam Restoril® 8 - 1 2 hrs Daytime sleep; sleep maintenance Need 8-hr sleep period post dose Triazolam Halcion® 2 - 4 hrs Afternoon nap taking Diazepam Valium® Sedative Lorazepam Ativan®, Temesta 10-20 hrs. Insomnia, anxiety Alprazolam Xanax® 40-250 hrs Severe anxiety Commonly misused Chlordiazeproxide Librium® Clonazepam Klonopin® 19 -60 hrs Lasting cognitive impairments Newer Hypnotics (Rx) non- benzodiazepines Sleep initiation; napping strategy Zolpidem Ambien®, Stilnox®, Myslee® 2.0-2. 5 hrs Sleep initiation; intermediate length naps Promotes sleep of 4-7 hrs Zaleplon Sonata®, Stamoc® 1.0 hr Short naps; 20 mg for sleep initiation w/ 20 mg, no hangover effects at 6+ hrs Eszopiclone Lunesta® 5. 0-6.0 hr Sleep initiation, & maintenance Minimal residual effects at 1 0 hrs Ramelteon Rozerem® Sleep initiation, but not for sleep maintenance Long term treatment of insomnia Indiplon & Indiplon modified release Not yet available; in clinical trials ~ 1 .5 hr Sleep initiation & maintenance Watch for progress & availability Alternative Sleep Inducers AlteriaF^ Includes melatonin, L-tryptophan, valerian Advertised as all natural restful sleep inducer; w/ no residual effects Claims not substantiated; unhappy Internet buyers Melatonin - natural sleep hormone emitted by pineal gland in the brain Synthetic hormone, many brands in drug/health stores Dissipates in bloodstream in daylight Effective daytime sleep inducer in darkened room Synthetic works for some people; no side effects or hangover Generation Antihistamines (w/ 25-50 mg diphenhydramine) Benadryl®, Unisom®, Sleepgels®, Dytuss®, Dramamine® Maintains in body for seasonal allergy relief Diphenhydramine induces sleepiness, to induce naps Maintenance level may produce hangover, sleepiness Fall 2010 68 Wake-promoting medications fall into three chemical classes: (1) direct-acting sympathomimetics, such as the alpha-adrenergic agonist phenylephrine; (2) indirect-acting sympathomimetics, such as amphetamines, methylphenidate (e.g. Ritalin®), mazindol; and (3) the ''non-stimulants” such as modafmil and caffeine, each having different mechanisms of action (Mitler and O’Malley, 2005). Prescription Stimulants and Amphetamines - There is a vast literature on most stimulants. We limit ourselves to those which hold potential for practical use as alertness enhancing compounds in transportation operations. The most potent stimulant of natural origin, cocaine, has medicinal uses, but its use is illicit. Both cocaine and marijuana (cannabis) have detrimental effects on driving performance (described in Krueger, Teaman and Bergoffen, 2011). The “big three” most common stimulant drugs: amphetamine, dextroamphetamine, and methamphetamine, similar in their effects, may be prescribed to treat such medical conditions as narcolepsy, attention deficit / attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and depression. Tike all stimulants, amphetamines can produce dependence, and as their use became commonplace, amphetamines were identified as having a high abuse potential. In the U.S. OTC availability of amphetamines was stopped by the Controlled Substances Act in 1971 when amphetamines became schedule II drugs. Now they are obtainable legally only by prescription. The military sometimes employ amphetamines in safety-controlled situations to “get soldiers through particularly arduous missions” (Caldwell et aL, 2009); but the use of amphetamines in any operational environment is inherently risky. See Togan (2002) for the driving risks associated with methamphetamine. Use of amphetamines is not likely to ever become acceptable practice for ameliorating effects of sleep loss or drowsiness of commercial vehicle drivers. However, urine drug testing and post crash forensic analyses indicate some commercial drivers, as well as some automobile drivers on the highways, do partake of amphetamines and other stimulants not recommended while driving. Modafmil - Modafmil is a chemically unique stimulant-like wake- promoting compound developed in the 1970s. Lagarde and Batejet (1995) described modafmil as an “eugregoric” meaning “good arousal.” The basis of the eugregoric uniqueness of modafmil is its ability to stimulate only when stimulation is required. As a result, the “highs and lows” associated with other stimulants such as amphetamine are absent in modafmil. Due to Washington Academy of Sciences 69 the absence of significant euphoric or pleasurable effects, modafinil has low potential for abuse and is thought to be non-addictive. In 2004, modafinil (as Provigil®, Vigil® et al.) was approved by the U.S. FDA for treatment of narcolepsy, for shift work sleep disorders (SWSD), and for persistent and excessive daytime sleepiness associated with effectively treated obstructive sleep apnea. In the U.S., modafinil, classified as a stimulant, is a non-narcotic schedule IV controlled substance and, therefore, requires a prescription. The central stimulating effect of modafinil shows dose and time-related features (McClellan and Spencer, 1998; Grady et al., 2010). Modafinil achieves maximum levels in the blood between 2-4 hrs after administration; and its half-life ranges from 10 to 15 hrs. Modafinil exhibits maximum vigilance enhancing properties peaking 4 hrs after a dose of 200 mg. A participant can re-dose with 100-200 mg every 4-6 hrs. Occasional side effects such as headache can occur with 300 mg/day doses. Buguet, Moroz and Radomski (2003) recommended 200 mg doses of modafinil for use in sustained operations. Modafinil offers many of the same stimulant benefits as amphetamines and large doses of caffeine with only minor side effects, some of them less offensive, e.g., less threatening to blood pressure than caffeine (Lagarde and Batejet, 1995; Baranski et al, 1998; Wesensten et al, 2004). Several studies demonstrated utility of modafinil during circadian lulls of mid-afternoon and after midnight. Importantly, unlike with caffeine and any other stimulant, a unique feature of modafinil is that a person wishing to remain awake can use modafinil to do so with a far greater level of alertness, but at the same time modafinil will not prevent the person from sleeping if he or she wants to take a nap (Balias et al., 2002). That feature should offer a real boost for commercial driving applications, and that aspect of modafinil should be explored in subsequent research programs looking for just such an application. These studies call for more research to determine the level of effectiveness of using modafinil in potential operational protocols with commercial vehicle drivers. While use of modafinil may one day become acceptable in transportation operations, currently it is still a prescription chemical and as such it is not easily affordable for most drivers. Since it may not provide substantially better effects than judicious use of caffeine, it would seem the caffeine route is currently the preferred choice of stimulants. Caffeine - Caffeine is the most widely consumed psychoactive or CNS stimulant in the world (Spiller, 1998, Chapter 12 by Smith and Tola). In addition to its natural occurrence in some foods and coffee, caffeine is Fall 2010 70 used commercially as a food additive and as a component of many pharmaceutical preparations. In the amounts commonly found in foods, beverages, and drugs, caffeine has measurable effects on certain types of human performance. Caffeine use has been associated with increased alertness and enhanced physical performance, and as a countermeasure to the effects of sleep deprivation. Extensive research has been done on each of these effects of caffeine. Interested readers are encouraged to consult the Institute of Medicine’s (lOM) summary of research findings on the efficacy of caffeine use (lOM-CMNR, 2001) and the book Caffeine by Spiller(1998). Caffeine is most often taken in by drinking some of the most ubiquitous beverages as coffee, tea, coca, colas, sodas, or other soft drinks. The amount of caffeine varies widely in these beverages. Brewed cups of coffee contain -75-250 mg of caffeine per 8-ounce cup. Popular specialized coffees, e.g. espresso, lattes, iced coffees, and so on, vary in portion size but the amount of caffeine rarely exceeds 250-300 mg per cup. Espressos contain more caffeine, ranging from 10 to 90 mg of caffeine per 1 -ounce serving and therefore have a greater “kick” per cup. Boutique shop 16-ounce coffees may contain as much as 550 mg of caffeine. Decaffeinated coffees generally have less than 10-20 mg of caffeine per 8-ounce cup. Commercial ice teas have between 6 mg and 60 mg of caffeine in a typical 8-ounce serving. The FDA limits soft drinks {e.g. Coca Cola, Pepsi Cola, et al.) to 71 mg caffeine per 12 ounce beverage. Depending upon the particular brand, many commercial soft drinks in the U.S. contain from 45 to 125 mg of caffeine per 12-ounce drink. Most but not all diet soft drinks are devoid of caffeine. For a comprehensive chart of the caffeine content of popular ingestibles, including soft drinks, caffeinated waters, chocolates, and medications, see Mitler and O’Malley (2005). Caffeine ingested in beverages is absorbed by the stomach within 30-60 minutes after oral administration. Caffeine is rapidly and completely absorbed in humans, with 99% absorbed within 45 minutes. Once absorbed, caffeine is distributed rapidly throughout the body. Caffeine is sufficiently lipophilic to pass through all biological membranes, and it readily crosses the blood-brain barrier. The mean half-life of caffeine in plasma of healthy individuals is from 3 to 5 hours, although its half-life may range between 1.5 and 9.5 hours. U.S. Army medical researchers demonstrated that caffeine in a chewing gum form (StayAlert™) promotes caffeine absorption via saliva, and it exhibits noticeable alerting effects in Washington Academy of Sciences 71 about seven minutes. Peak absorption of caffeine irom chewing gum occurs in 30 minutes (Kamimori et al., 2002). Caffeinated chewing gum provides a faster “picker-upper” when a person is particularly drowsy but for practical reasons cannot cease work to go take a nap. Cafleinated chewing gum appears to offer good application potential for commercial drivers. The pharmacological effects of caffeine include mild stimulation and wakefulness, ability to sustain intellectual activity, and decreased reaction times (lOM-CMNR, 2001). The observable, subjective effects of caffeine last about 4 hours and may include a feeling of a slightly higher heart rate and elevated body temperature, a noticeable perky mood, increased alertness, and signs of improved cognition {i.e. reaction time and memory) and physical performance. The effects of caffeine on cognitive performance are diverse. Behavioral measures indicate a general improvement in the efficiency of information processing after caffeine. Caffeine has been demonstrated to improve or enhance vigilance / alertness in both rested and sleep-deprived individuals. Caffeine is shown to improve / maintain psychomotor performance and a variety of cognitive functions during prolonged wakefulness (Hogervorst et al., 1999; Hindmarch, 2000). The body adapts or adjusts to the intake of caffeine; thus, with prolonged use, some tolerance occurs. When daily heavy coffee drinkers want to obtain an acute “jolt” from caffeine, perhaps to temporarily restore alertness, they typically need to take in a higher dose of caffeine to feel the desired effects. Commercial drivers are especially interested in caffeine’s ability to restore alertness when a person is at least partially sleep-deprived. Judicious use of caffeine can restore alertness, improve performance on mental tasks, and induce positive mood states. Bonnet and Arand (1994) found caffeine increased alertness and performance on a visual vigilance task, mental arithmetic tests, and logical reasoning in sleep deprived subjects. Smith and Rubin (1999) found caffeine had a similar profile to amphetamine - caffeine reversed sleep deprivation-induced longer response times, and reduced the number of errors on a visual vigilance task, as well as the sleep deprivation-induced decrements in a running memory test. In summary, use of caffeine offers a relatively safe and effective means of maintaining or restoring cognitive performance even under conditions of operational stress (lOM-CMNR, 2001; Caldwell et al., 2009; Fall 2010 72 and others). Caffeine restores cognitive function during prolonged wakefulness, and it can enhance certain types of cognitive performance, most notably vigilance and reaction times, in rested individuals, regardless of whether or not they are regular caffeine users. The doses of caffeine most likely to be effective without causing undesirable mood effects are within the range of 100 to 600 mg. The paucity of actual highway driving studies examining effects of caffeine suggests there needs to be more research to define variables for commercial driver alertness management and fatigue countermeasure programs. Questions should address when drivers should use caffeine, in what doses, what format {e.g. beverages, tablets, chewing gum, timed release capsules, and so on) how often, and what effects should be anticipated, e.g. clarifying how long before preparing to sleep should one refrain from its use, etc. In particular, additional research should be done on the potential for use of slow-time-released caffeine and on caffeinated chewing gum applications. Nicotine - Nicotine, a stimulant, is also classified as a relaxant, because it increases levels of dopamine in the brain (a hormone / neurotransmitter that causes sensations of pleasure). Nicotine increases heart rate, blood pressure and respiratory function. The more the nerve cells are excited, the more dopamine is released, and the more pleasant the feeling (McGehee, 2006). Nicotine is readily available in the form of several tobacco sources including cigarettes, cigars, and chewing tobacco. It is also available as nicotine skin patches (subcutaneous), chewing gum (polacrilex), and other products advertised for assistance in smoking cessation plans. Nicotine enhances a limited range of behavior, and has complex effects on human performance; but performance improvements are small. Much like studies involving caffeine, interpretation of effects of nicotine depends on whether it is tested under conditions of nicotine-deprivation (i.e. nicotine withdrawal), or non-deprivation (he/she is a non-smoker, and therefore a newcomer to tobacco/nicotine use). In nicotine-dependent individuals, tobacco deprivation (withdrawal) can impair attentional and cognitive abilities within 12 hours of smoking cessation (Gross, .larvik, and Rosenblatt, 1993). Reinitiating cigarette smoking or nicotine administration can reverse such performance deficits to pre-deprivation levels. Whether improved performance associated with relief from withdrawal should be considered cognitive enhancement, or simply labeled restoral to baseline performance levels, has been questioned (Hughes, 1991). Today the topic of nicotine deprivation and performance Washington Academy of Sciences 73 is prevalent in transportation industries because some airlines enlorce no- smoking policies for their pilots, potentially causing llight pertormance decrements in pilots who are smokers (Mumenthaler et al., 2010). Studies of nicotine and simulator driving performance and those examining nicotine effects on laboratory tasks depict a wide-variation in designs, and produce conflicting and somewhat inconclusive results. Perhaps the most pertinent psychological perfomiance study examining nicotine applications for alertness enhancement during continuous operations (but also d-amphetamine) is that of Newhouse et al. (1992). In that Walter Reed study, nicotine was infused intravenously at doses of 0.25, 0.37 and 0.5 mg after 48 hours of wakefulness. Nicotine had no significant impact on Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT) measures or on psychomotor performance. Additionally, nicotine did not effectively improve cognitive performance; nor did nicotine improve alertness. This prompted Newhouse et al. (1992) to conclude nicotine is “not an effective stimulant for maintaining cognitive alertness during sustained performance operations.” Thus, contrary to popular belief in the stimulant utility of nicotine, the study by Newhouse et al. demonstrated that nicotine may not be an effective stimulant for maintaining alertness during extensively long work schedules. The health risks of tobacco use and smoking have been well- publicized. Risks of cancer, heart and lung disease, hypertension, and cardiovascular and circulatory problems prevail as health risks from smoking and tobacco use. For these health-risk-related reasons, nicotine (at least from tobacco use) cannot be supported for maintaining alertness during commercial driving. Some of the salient features of the operational use of stimulating compounds for promoting alertness are listed in Table 3. Supplements: Herbal, Energy Boosters, Dietary And Health Foods Every year the dietary and nutritional supplement industries introduce another proliferation of chemical compounds in enticing new formats {i.e. energy-boost drinks, bottled flavored water augmented with vitamin mixes, nutritional supplement candy chews, caffeine infused chewing gum, high energy food bars, lose-weight crash diet measures, and so on). Marketers engage popular professional athletes and other celebrities in splashy advertising to encourage consumers to buy/use such products to achieve a better, more healthful or exciting lifestyle. However, Fall 2010 74 manufacturers offer little published medieal and human performance research data to support advertising claims about many such supplements. Table 3 Stimulants and Wake Promoting Substances Category Availability Use / Effect Comments I'se permitted by CM\ drivers Caffeine Ubiquitous in tea, coffee, soft drinks, energy drinks, chewing gum, tablets Alertness maintenance, slight boost to energy Need for usage protocol guidance in operations; highlight risks, e.g. high BP Nicotine Tobacco use, smoking, skin patches Soothing to persons with smoking habits Not effective for restoring or maintaining alertness performance, causes cancer Functional energy drinks: FEDs (e g. Red Bull® et al.); energy bars, chews, candies, supplements Available in many stores, truck fuel stops Popular drinks, hope for slight stimulating effects from caffeine; less clear for food bars No substantive research data on effects; risk of taking too many FEDs; interactions with other chemicals C) Modafmil (e.g. ProVigil® Vigil®, Alertec®, Modiodal®) Prescription only; military off-label use as a stimulant w/ no untoward effects Prescribed for ADFID, Narcolepsy, Shiftwork Sleep Disorder: SWSD Promising for alertness, but not yet commonly accepted for CMV driver use. Costs $ Need more research and usage protocol guidance Not permissible for CMV drivers w/out Rx Amphetamines Available by Rx for medical treatment only, CFR 391.41. b-12 Stimulation helps sustain performance; but with other undesirable effects Risk of loss of CDL or job if caught using without Rx d-amphetamine, methamphetamine, methylphenidate (Ritalin® no longer prevalent) Limited use of d- amphetamine in controlled military operations For short duration military applications to get soldiers through a mission Use not ever likely permissible in CMV operations Cocaine Illicit; bought on the streets Recreational, addictive Risk of loss of CDL, )ob Ephedrine Despite FDA cautions, drug is still available Mostly used as a weight loss fat burner Can be dangerous, implicated in deaths exercising 1 in the heat Washington Academy of Sciences 75 A variety of chemical substances and/or psychoactive compounds that commercial drivers might ingest on occasion do not fit into the categories of hypnotics and stimulants. These consumer products are available in grocery, convenience, and drug stores, in health food shops and at shopping center kiosks. Many of them are readily available in convenience shops not far from the fuel pumps at highway rest stops. A dietary supplement is typically taken by mouth. The product contains an “ingredient” intended to beneficially supplement what one normally eats. The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA) of 1994 places dietary supplements in a special category under the general umbrella of “foods,” not drugs, and requires that every ingredient or combination of ingredients be labeled as dietaiy supplements. Manufacturers of supplements are responsible for ensuring the safety of the ingredient(s). By statute, the FDA is not authorized to require data supporting safety from the manufacturer, as it does for food additives or drugs [see FDA web site on Center for Food Safety and Nutrition at: http://www.cfsan.fda.gov and Kurtzweil, 1999]. Dietary supplements fall into two categories: Those that might impart beneficial effects to improve health and performance with negligible side effects, and those that have uncertain benefits which potentially might harm health and performance. The challenge is to determine which supplements fall into which category. In the U.S. there are no commercial transportation-wide policies regarding dietary supplements. Some safety concerns over supplements, especially the lack of appropriate guidance for their use, were described when the lOM assessed supplements for the military (lOM report: Greenwood and Oria, 2008). The paucity of medical guidance for use of supplements implies that commercial drivers who take supplements might inadvertently compromise their own performance or health. Without usable information and guidance, drivers also might be concerned about risks, and therefore forgo taking dietary supplements that might improve their performance or health. An evaluation of the numerous dietary supplements available is especially difficult because many such products contain multiple ingredients, they can have a changing composition over time, or because people use them intermittently at doses that tend to be difficult to measure, and mostly the amounts ingested are not recorded (Greenwood and Oria. 2008). Fall 2010 76 Psychoactive herbal supplements - Several herbal supplements are either included in foods or beverages, or are sold as capsules or powders in health stores. Some of them have psychoactive properties. Guarana is a powdery substance derived from seeds of a South American shrub plant. Its active ingredient “guaranine” claims to be an effective energy booster, and the physiological and behavioral effects it produces are nearly identical to those obtained with caffeine. Ginkgo biloba, extracted from the leaves of the small bushy tree, has been used for centuries in traditional Chinese medicine to treat a variety of problems including asthma and digestive disorders. The mild stimulating effects of both guarana and ginkgo biloba give some small, but measurable boosts to cognitive and reaction time performance (Kennedy, Scholey and Wesnes, 2000; Kennedy et al., 2004). There are not enough reportable studies of guarana or ginkgo biloba with cognitive or psychomotor performance to make definitive statements about their efficaciousness for the commercial driving community. Additional targeted research might help elucidate these issues. Proponents of nutritional supplements advocate various herbs to relieve stress. These herbal compounds include: Passion Flower, Lavender Oil, Kava, Valerian, Ginseng, Saint John ’s Wort, and others. Additional nutrient supplements that help with anxiety or stress are proteins such as 5-HTP, and amino acids such as Tryptophan, Tyrosine, and Theanine. Most of these supplement products are commercially available in boutique health food stores, nutrition shops, and in some grocery stores. While there are some descriptive and scientific reports of studies of their effects on health and performance, for many of these the evidence of their importance as psychoactive substances which might impact commercial driver performance is not significant. Energy Supplement drinks, food bars, candy chews, and others - Caffeine shows up along with other psychoactive substances in numerous products best described as energy supplement drinks, as well as in energy food bars, gels, etc., all of them advertised to boost one’s energy and alertness level. Energy supplements are available in drug stores, grocery stores, and in highway rest stop convenience stores. Since the late 1990s, energy drinks [sometimes called Functional Energy Drinks, or FEDs] have become quite popular. The major ingredient in these energy drinks is caffeine, mixed along with other caffeine-like chemicals {e.g. guarana), and several other psychoactive ingredients. The range of caffeine in popular FEDs may be from 80 mg to Washington Academy of Sciences 77 as high as 500 mg per serving - which means the caffeine in a single energy drink of some brands can exceed that contained in two six-packs of Coca-Cola. FEDs do not replenish the body the way electrolyte replacement sports drinks {e.g. Gatorade®) do. Mixing a FED and alcohol can significantly dehydrate a person since both substances have diuretic effects. To remain within the spirit of the 1994 Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act, manufacturers claim the drink ingredients derive from health promoting vitamins, herbs, and other natural ingredients. Since FDA does not regulate such supplements, the manufacturer bears full responsibility for ensuring the product is both effective and safe for human consumption and use. However, there is a paucity of published detail on the contents or descriptions of the human effects of FEDs. While the manufacturers of FEDs tout the likely combination of energizing effects by placing caffeine with other ingredients such as taurine (1000 mg) and glucuronolactone (600 mg), researchers “debunk” the likely impact of taurine (stating it is predominately the caffeine that brings about the desirable or undesirable energetic effects). Most FEDs contain guarana, ginseng, and taurine in such small amounts that they are far below the amounts expected to deliver either therapeutic benefits or adverse events. Many FEDs contain as much as 80 to 300 mg of caffeine and 35 grams of processed sugar per 8-ounce serving, amounts known to cause a variety of adverse health effects. Commonly reported adverse effects seen with the amounts of caffeine present in the energy drinks are insomnia, nervousness, headache, and tachycardia. Caffeine and taurine have direct effects on cardiac function and hemodynamic status. In a study by Steinke et al. (2007), after subjects drank two FEDs, no significant EKG changes were observed, but subjects’ heart rate increased 5-7 bpm, and after consuming just one FED, systolic blood pressure increased 10 mm Hg. These physiological levels are likely clinically significant for consumers who have hypertension, or cardiac disease, and could be unhealthy for people who regularly consume quantities of such energy drinks. Some newer energy drinks recently increased amounts of potentially offending ingredients. Since many commercial drivers suffer from hypertension, and are being medicated for it, this raises safety concerns. Effects due to secondary substances, apparently added largely to satisfy marketing ploys, are likely to be slight. Health and performance concerns remain about verifying the potential Fall 2010 78 synergistic or interactive effects of the several ingredients found in FEDs, which people may consume in considerable quantity while they happen to be taking medications and other chemical substances. Kennedy and Scholey (2004) demonstrated that combinations of caffeine and glucose can produce some of the same cognitive performance effects without adding other substances into energy drinks. Van den Eynde et al. (2008) stated most of the effects of energy drinks on cognitive performance are related mainly to the presence of caffeine. They suggest further investigation into effects of the lesser known ingredients of energy drinks {e.g. taurine and glucuronolactone) to gain a better understanding of the possible interactions of the multiple substances. Several experiments demonstrated the potential applicability of FEDs for reducing sleepiness and sleep-related driving incidents after sleep restriction {e.g. Reyner and Elorne, 2002). The effectiveness of FEDs also was shown during simulated first-night shiftwork (Jay et al., 2006); but FEDs also adversely impacted sleep during recovery sleep the following day. Additional research with FEDs is called for, preferably to be conducted in driving simulators. Subsequently, guidance about the measured effects of FEDs on health and performance would be appreciated in the commercial transportation industries. Five-and six-hour power energy booster drinks - In part, in response to the reports of health concerns expressed with FEDs, the energy drink industry now markets newer alternative energy drinks. Intense advertising on U.S. television and a wide availability in convenience stores, including truck fuel stops, has made two of these new drinks the best known to date; (1) the new “2-ounce shof’: 5-Hour Energy™ drink (distributed by Living Essentials), and (2) another 2-ounce shot drink entitled: 6-Hour Power™. Both products identify themselves as “vitamin supplement drinks.” While these vitamin-laced drinks may not harm a person if taken according to the directions, there is also no published evidence that they have functional validity for safe on-the-road usage. No research reports on the efficacy, safety, or cognitive effects and other performance and health implications of using either the 5-Hour Energy or the 6-Hour Power “shots” were located. Additional research is recommended on this potential alternative to the functional energy drinks if for no other reason that they are apparently now being consumed by so many commercial drivers. Washington Academy of Sciences 79 Energy boost powders, pills, food bars, etc. - A large number of “nutritional-energy boost” food bars, pills, tablets, powders, and so on, are available, each advertising themselves as energy booster products containing herbs, vitamins and minerals. Most of these present splashy colors and advertising displays, and offer to increase or enhance performance (whether it be physical or cognitive performance), to alleviate stress, provide more energy, provide power to achieve, and so on. No scientific reports were located which examined or evaluated cognitive performance effects attributed to vitamin laced drinks, electrolyte replacement drinks, or energy boost supplements in pill or bar forms, etc. Controlled laboratory studies should be carried out to examine and report on the efficacy and safety of use of such readily available products by commercial drivers who travel over-the-road. Table 4 lists many of the supplemental substances described above. Summary And Conclusion The literature makes clear that numerous psychoactive medications (whether prescribed or available over-the-counter) have measurable effects on vehicle drivers and may impact job performance (both positively and negatively) in safety risk occupations - especially a concern for commercial drivers. Some hypnotics, stimulants, and nutritional supplements have been used safely in various sustained work settings. Such successful applications of “more exotic” pharmaceutical interventions mostly have been witnessed in select military operations wherein limited use, acute administration of varying sleep aid and stimulant compounds is permitted with a goal to “get military operators through a particular mission.” Military policies require that such applications be in accordance with rigorous safety control rules. The literature reaffirms that commercial drivers can legitimately and safely use only a few sleep aids (hypnotics) or alertness enhancers (stimulants) during transportation operations. Some of these, such as the quick acting, short half-life sleep promotion compounds, are only useable thi'ough prescription from a qualified medical provider. Antihistamines and synthetic melatonin are permissible as sleep aids without prescription. Caffeine still remains as the most promising permissible stimulant for use by commercial drivers. Fall 2010 80 Table 4 Psychoactive Supplements Affecting Health and Performance Categon' Where found Use/Effect Comments Herbals Guar ana Ginkgo Biloba Health food stores, truck stops; inserted into soft drinks and energy drinks Mild stimulants, have some effect on cognitive and reaction time performance Some studies indicate mild effects akin to those of caffeine. No adverse effects demonstrated Ginseng, Passion Flower, Kava Kava, Valerian, St. John’s Wort Boutique health food shops, over-the-counter stores Relaxants to alleviate tension & stress; to induce sleep Psychoactive effects not substantiated by research Physical performance enhancers Carbohydrates avail in foods, & as supplements White rice, bread, pasta and sugars Can improve / maintain physical performance As restoratives can improve memory' Amino acids; tryptophan, ty'rosine Health food stores, found in meats Tyrosine helpful for stress resistance; some sleep improvements Scant evidence of cognitive performance enhancements Multi-vitamins, minerals & antioxidants Avail, in numerous stores; antioxidants over Internet Replace/supplement bodily needs not met by good nutrition Not likely to improve performance; but may speed energy recovery Anabolic steroids Naturally in body; available through athletic outlets DHEA for muscle building; popular with longevists Can enhance well- being; but also impair cognition; must continue treatment to prevent loss of effects Hydration Drinking water Ubiquitous supply; available in bottles everywhere Essential nutrient; proven benefits to the body Bottled water may contain sodium and minerals; no fluoride Vitamin & mineral drinks/waters Sold in grocery stores Feel good drinking them vs. sodas Not much noticeable effect, taste is okay Functional Energy Drinks (FEDs) In many stores and hwy rest stops Belief they restore or boost energy; used as alcohol drink mix FEDs contain large amounts of caffeine, taurine, sugar, etc. Energy bars, chews, etc. Most stores, truck stops Touted as energy boost, picker- uppers, to suppress hunger Ingredients usually mild; not enough data to verify energy boost effects Dietary & Weight loss products Health food stores, diet clubs, over the Internet To lose weight; mostly in fad- dieting Often contain multiple substances not verified for efficacy nor safety Washington Academy of Sciences 81 The scant research literature on numerous readily available nutritional supplements and other chemical substances likely ingested by commercial drivers makes tenuous any assessments of their effects on worker performance and health. 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Appetite, 42,3,331-333. Kennedy, D.O., Scholey, A.B. and Wesnes, K.A. (2000). The dose-dependent cognitive effects of acute administration of Ginkgo biloba to healthy young volunteers. Psychopharmacology, 151,41 6-423. Krueger, G.P., Leaman, H.M. and Bergoffen, G. (201 1). Effects of psychoactive chemicals on commercial driver health and performance: Stimulants, hypnotics, nutritional and other supplements. TRB-Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program Report No. 19. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. Kurtzweil, P. (1999). A FDA guide to dietary supplements.-.FDA Consumer, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition’s Dietary Supplements Web page at http://www.cfsan.fda.gov/~dms/fdsupp.html Lagarde, D. and Batejat, D. (1995). Disrupted sleep-wake rhythm and performance: Advantages of modafinil. Military Psychology, 1, 165-191. Logan, B.K. (2002). Methamphetamine; Effects on human performance and behavior. Forensic Science Review, 14, 133-151. McBay, A.J. (1989). Drug concentrations and driving Impairment; Consensus Report - Letter to the Editor. Journal of Forensic Science. 34, 3-4. McBay, A.J. (1997). Drugs and driving impairment. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina. Extracted from the Web at Schaffer Library of Drug Policy http://www.druglibrary.org/schaffer/MISC/driving/ddimp.htm McClellan, K.J. and Spencer, C.M. (1998). Modafinil: A review of its pharmacology and clinical efficacy in the management of narcolepsy. CNS Drugs, 9, 4, 3 1 1 -324. McGehee, D.S. (2006). Nicotinic and opioid receptor interactions in nicotine addiction. Molecular Interventions, 6, 3 1 1-3 14. Mendelson, W.B. (2005). Hypnotic medications: Mechanisms of action and pharmacologic effects. Chapter 36, pp. 444-451. In: Kryger, M.H., Roth, T. and Dement, W.C. (eds.) Principles and practice of sleep medicine, fourth edition. Philadelphia, PA: Elsevier Saunders. Mitler, M.M. and O’Malley, M.B. (2005). Wake-promoting medications: Efficacy and adverse effects. Chapter 39, pp. 484-498. In; Kryger, M.H., Roth, T. and Dement, W.C. (eds.) Principles and practice of sleep medicine, fourth edition. Philadelphia, PA: Elsevier Saunders. Moskowitz, H. (2007). Alcohol and drugs. Chapter 7, pp. 123-142, 2007 in Human factors in traffic safety second edition. Tucson, AZ: Lawyers and Judges Publishing. Moskowitz, H. and Robinson, C.D. (1988). Effects of low doses of alcohol on driving- related skills: A review of the evidence. NHTSA Technical Report No. DOT HS 807-280. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Transportation Safety Administration. Fall 2010 84 Mumenthaler, M.S., Benowitz, N.L., Taylor, J.L., Friedman, L., Noda, A. and Yesavage, J.A. (2010). Nicotine deprivation and pilot performance during simulated flight. Aviation. Space and Environmental Medicine, 81, 660-664. 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Military Psychology, 4, 207-233. Ogden, E.J. and Moskowitz, H. (2004). Effects of alcohol and other drugs on driver performance. Traffic Injmy Prevention, 5, 3, 185-198. O’Hanlon, J.F. and DeGier, J.J. (1986). Drugs and driving. London: Taylor and Francis, Ltd. Olson, P. (2007). Driver perception-response time. Chapter 3, pp. 33-35. In: Dewar, R. and Olson, P. (Eds.). (2007) Human factors in ti’affic safety, 2"^* ed. Tucson, AZ: Lawyers and Judges Publishing Co., Inc. O'Neill, T.R., Krueger, G.P. and Van Hemel, S.B. (1996). Fatigue and the truck driver: Instructor's guide for a fatigue outreach training course for America's trucking industry. Alexandria, VA: Star Mountain, Inc. and The American Trucking Associations in partnership with the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration. Pickworth, W.B., Rohrer, M.S. and Fant, R.V. (1997). Effects of abused drugs on psychomotor performance. Experimental Clinical Psychopharmacology, 5, 235-241. Ramaekers, J.G. (2003). 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Woods Hole, MA, June 20-21, 2005. TRB Transportation Research Circular No. E-C096. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. Washington Academy of Sciences 85 Shinar, D. (Ed.). (2007). Traffic safety and human behavior. In particular: Alcohol and driving. Chapter 1 1, pp. 403-462; and Drugs and driving, Chapter 12, pp. 463-515. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Smith. A. and Rubin G.H. (1999). Positive effects of caffeine or negative effects of caffeine withdrawal. Presentation February 2-3, 1999 at the Institute of Medicine Workshop on Caffeine Formulations for Sustainment of Mental Task Performance during Military Operations. Washington, DC: Committee on Military Nutrition Research. Spiller, G.A. (1998). Caffeine. See especially Chapter 12, pp 251-299 by Smith, B.D. and Tola, K.: Caffeine effects on psychological functioning and performance. Boca Raton, EE: CRC Press. Steinke, E., Kalus, J.S., Dhanapal, V., Eanfear, D.E. and Berlie, H.D. (2007). “Energy drink” consumption causes increases in blood pressure and heart rate. Circulation, 116:11-831. Van den Eynde, F., van Baelen, P.C., Portzky, M. and Audenaert, K. (2008). The effects of energy drinks in cognitive performance. Tijdschr Psychiatry, 50, 5, 273-281. Vermeeren, A. (2004). Residual effects of hypnotics: Epidemiology and clinical implications. CNS Drugs 18, 5, 297-328. Wesensten, N.J., Belenky, G., Thome, D.R., Kautz, M.A. and Balkin, T.J. (2004). Modafmil vs. caffeine: Effects on fatigue during sleep deprivation. Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine, 75, 6, 520-525. Willette, R.E. and Walsh, J.M. (1983). Drugs, driving, and traffic safety. World Health Organization publication No. 78. Geneva, Switzerland: The World Health Organization. Wittenbom, J.R. (1979). Effects of benzodiazepines on psychomotor performance. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology, 7 (Supplement 1), 61S-67S. Fall 2010 86 INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS 1. Manuscripts should be in Word (Office 03/07) and not PDF. 2. They should be 6,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by the Editor). If there are 7 or more graphics, reduce the number of words. 3. Graphics (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in graytone only (no color accepted), and be easily resizable by the editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the graphics. 4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field represented by the manuscript. They must be accurate, complete, and consistent in format throughout the paper. 5. Include both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author (or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if any. 6. Papers are peer reviewed. 7. Send Manuscripts by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to Joumal@washacadsci.org or directly to the editor. Dr Jacqueline Maffucci - iamaffucci@gmail.com. Hard copy can not be accepted. Manuscripts can be accepted by any of the Board of Discipline Editors. Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetitiiff hotmail.com Elizabeth Corona - systems science at elizabethcorona@gmail.com Jim Eigenreider - science education at iim@!deepwater.org Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at terrell.erickson 1 @.wdc. nsda.gov Mark Holland - botany at maholland@salisbuiT.edu Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org Carol Eacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@)nist.gov Kent Miller - computer sciences at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@J~iotmail.com Steve Tracton - atmospheric studies at straction@hotmai 1 .com Washington Academy of Sciences 87 DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES Acoustical Society of America American/International Association of Dental Research American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section American Fisheries Society American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration American Meteorological Society American Nuclear Society American Phytopathological Society American Society for Cybernetics American Society for Microbiology American Society of Civil Engineers American Society of Mechanical Engineers American Society of Plant Physiology Anthropological Society of Washington ASM International Association for Women in Science (AWIS) Association for Computing Machinery Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation Association of Information Technology Professionals Biological Society of Washington Botanical Society of Washington Chemical Society of Washington District of Columbia Institute of Chemists District of Columbia Psychology Association Eastern Sociological Society Electrochemical Society Entomological Society of Washington Geological Society of Washington Historical Society of Washington, DC Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington DC Section Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern Va. Section Institute of Food Technologies Institute of Industrial Engineers Instrument Society of America Marine Technology Society Mathematical Association of America Medical Society of the District of Columbia Paul Arveson J. Terrell Ho field Frank R. Haig, S..1. Ramona Schreiber David W. Brandt Michael Greeley Kenneth Carey Steven Arndt Kenneth L. Deahl Stuart Umpleby VACANT Kimberly Hughes Daniel J. Vavrick Mark Holland Marilyn London Toni Marechaux Jodi Wesemann Kent Miller F. Douglas Witherspoon Barbara Safranek F. Christian Thompson Emanuela Appetiti Jim Zwolenlk Jim Zwolenlk David Williams Ronald W. Mandersheid Robert L. Ruedisueli F. Christian Thompson Bob Schneider VACANT Michael Eidelkind Gerard Christman Murty Polavarapu Isabel Walls Neal F.Schmeidler Hank Hegner Judith T. Krauthamer Sharon K. Hauge Duane Taylor Fall 2010 ♦ i mti i Ai, j/ 1 t !40 % % 1 « j ki^ *•-. " ■ ' ■■ 4-)i i‘ M ; » ' - . t .. ' ^ V • ♦. ’T4 ,.- dfittimi *»i ^*4 / . p 1 •»» ^ : i' V -f mdMHH •■'■'tjl' t. ■' » , ■ •v.i'fW ■ I ' I'- ■•1§»TI ' X' Ifci * ■< iiy l*«l-. .. ^ -^u*' ‘ * - t A *'.>• .»• t ■ ‘a;w‘S[lfe-r P<'-‘ »" >ni ■ • * • , » 1^ '. • t I 'V' ’ » ;%! • * N .V»i I » ,v . fc'fntar.-^ A •, ’ j* . ■ *• £/ !)k .'V ' ■••* < K*'; '■-'i-'’. ■ '• \UK. , jTii/JJl, li! »«« •• t , ', ■•V’lt*' * SIffi ■- •■' 1 5u '■»«.) ^ 1 '♦W^. ir ■- .jr'?T‘i 'V '"• " S 't , ^ - »■• M>=at=**=)=*******]viixED ADC 286 ERNST MAYR LIBRAY HARVARD UNIVERSITY 26 OXEORD ST MUSEUM COM CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138-2902 MCZ library MAR 31 2011 Volume 96 Number 4 harvard UNIVERSITY Journal of the WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Editor’s Comments J. Maffucd i Instructions to Authors jj Fields, Alternative Medicine and Physics ... Commentary E. Mieiczarek. 1 Leafing Through History: Sciences, Humanities, Society ... Book Review A. Touwaide 5 Calendars: What Day |s It Anyway? ... Review S. Howard 13 Facilitating Student Autonomy in Project Based Learning J. Egenneder 35 Membership List - 20)0 47 Affiliated Institutions 56 Membership Application 57 ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC Washington Academy of Sciences Founded in 1898 Board of Managers Elected Officers President Mark Holland President Elect Gerard Christman Treasurer Larry Millstein Secretary James Cole Vice President, Administration Lisa Frehill Vice President, Membership Sethanne Howard Vice President, Junior Academy Dick Davies Vice President, Affiliated Societies E. Eugene Williams Members at Large Denise Ingram Terrell Erickson Frank Haig, S.J. Alianna Maren Daryl Chubin Michael Cohen Past President: Kiki Ikossi Affiliated Society Delegates: Shown on back cover Editor of the Journal Jacqueline Maffucci Associate Editor: Sethanne Howard The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy. It publishes articles on science policy, the history of science, critical reviews, original science research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest to its members. It is published quarterly. The last issue of the year contains a directory of the current membership of the Academy. Subscription Rates Members, fellows, and life members in good standing receive the Journal free of charge. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis, payable in advance. Payment must be made in U.S. currency at the following rates. US and Canada $30.00 Other Countries $35.00 Single Copies (when available) $15.00 Claims for Missing Issues Claims must be received within 65 days of mailing. Claims will not be allowed if non- delivery was the result of failure to notify the Academy of a change of address. Notification of Change of Address Address changes should be sent promptly to the Academy Office. Notification should contain both old and new addresses and zip codes. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WAS, 6'^ Floor, 1200 New York Ave. NW Washington, DC. 20005 Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439) Academy Office Washington Academy of Sciences G''" Floor 1200 New York Ave NW Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202/326-8975 Published by the Washington Academy of Sciences 202/326-8975 email: was@washacadsci.org website: wvAA/.washacadsci.org 1 Editor’s Comments As we enter into 2011, 1 wanted to take a moment to recognize and thank all of the Washington Academy of Sciences members, as well as those authors that have contributed to the Journal over the years. As an editor, it is always exciting to receive the diversity of manuscripts that highlight the scientific achievement of the Capital region. This couldn’t happen without the support of our members and contributors. Beyond that, the mission of the Washington Academy of Sciences, which is in essence to support collaborative efforts in the realm of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM), is particularly important given the current concerns about the U.S. performance in this area. All of our members and contributors are helping to further this cause through their efforts not only as Academy members and Journal contributors, but scientists, educators, and mentors. For that, I thank you. The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences is only one way that our members support STEM. Through the Academy’s programs, including the various guest speaker events, the Capital Science conference, and the STARS program to support K-12 science fairs, we have truly dedicated ourselves to advancing STEM. As the new year begins, I look forward to working with current and future scientists to continue to fulfill this mission, both as the editor of the Journal, and a member of WAS. With that, I am excited to introduce the Winter 2010 issue of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences. In this issue, we begin with a brief commentary by Eugenie Mielczarek concerning confusions surrounding the use of the term “field” in alternative medicine. Following this, Alain Touwaide presents a book review of current works that together help to compile a history of the sciences over time. Then, what better way to celebrate the ringing in of 2011 than to take a moment and reflect on how this thing called time, and more specifically the calendar, came to be. Sethanne Howard has prepared a comprehensive review, putting to words how time actually came to exist in the form of our present day calendar. Finally, keeping STEM education initiatives in mind, James A. Egenrieder offers a synopsis on how educators can use project-based learning to enhance student experiences in STEM education to encourage the pursuit of STEM careers in the future. Enjoy and Happy New Year! Editor, The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences Winter 2010 11 INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS 1 . Manuscripts should be in Word (Office 03/07) and not PDF. 2. They should be 6,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by the Editor). If there are 7 or more graphics, reduce the number of words. 3. Graphics (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in graytone only (no color accepted), and be easily resizable by the editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the graphics. 4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field represented by the manuscript. They must be accurate, complete, and consistent in format throughout the paper. 5. Include both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author (or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if any. 6. Papers are peer reviewed. 7. Send Manuscripts by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to Journal@washacadsci.org or directly to the editor. Dr Jacqueline Maffucci - iamaffucci@gmail.com. Hard copy can not be accepted. Manuscripts can be accepted by any of the Board of Discipline Editors. Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetiti@>hotmail.com Elizabeth Corona - systems science at elizabethcorona@gmail.com Jim Eigenreider — science education at iimfaideepwater.org Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at terrell.erickson 1 @wdc. nsda.gov Mark Holland - botany at maholland@salisbur> .edu Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org Carol Lacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@nist.gov Kent Miller - computer sciences at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@hotmail.com Steve Tracton - atmospheric studies at stracton@hotmail.com Washington Academy of Sciences 1 Fields, Alternative Medicine and Physics^ Eugenie Vorburger Mielczarek George Mason University In 1996 THE American Physical Society, responding to a request from the National Research Council, was asked to examine the potential health hazards of power lines. One of the concerns was that electromagnetic background fields of 2 milligauss might cause cancer (for comparison the Earth’s magnetic field is 500 milligauss and fields generated by human physiological processes are hundreds of thousands of times less than 2 milligauss). Monitors of outdoor exposure for children to wear were marketed to parents. “Some city regulations sought to constrain B fields to less than 2 milligauss.” The report, which was a comprehensive study of the alleged dangers, included both molecular and epidemiologic studies and found that no adverse health effects could be attributed to these low fields. One of the conclusions emphasized that physical calculations rule out carcinogenic effects because at physiological temperatures thermal noise fields in human cells are larger than the background fields from power lines. Thus the political agenda, concerned with fear of carcinogenic mechanisms arising from low-level magnetic fields, lost credibility. However, about 10 years later claims for health effects from mattress pads equipped with small magnets were marketed. A study of this was funded by the National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine and claims for their benefits were published in alternative medicine journals. Some of the rationales for the claims were ludicrous. I attended one sales pitch which claimed their mattress magnets were better because they incorporated only North Poles. About the same time, small 300 gauss magnets began to appear on the shelves of drug stores. In 2007 a lawsuit brought by the National Council against Health Fraud against advertisers of these products was successfully settled. I was one of the persons who agreed to appear -as an expert witness if needed. The Federal Trade Commission also threatened to prosecute purveyors who claimed healthful benefits for these products. Amazingly, in the last Parts of this blog also appeared in the April 2010 Newsletter of the Forum on Physics and Society of the American Physical Society http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/20 1 OOTmielczarek.cfm Winter 2010 2 few years the health and medical and nursing communities, in their integrated medicine outreach, are now marketing the unsubstantiated claims that healing fields of 2 milligauss are emitted from the hands of practitioners.^ This belief in distance healing. Therapeutic Touch (TT), Reiki, and Qiqong cobble the language of physics with the language of physiology and mislead the patient. For example, in Therapeutic Touch the protocol requires that a therapist moves his or her hands over the patient’s “energy field,” allegedly “tuning” a purported “aura” of biomagnetic energy that extends above the patient’s body. This is thought to somehow help heal the patient. (Curiously, the rubrics never define what may happen if the practitioner is inept). Although this is less than one percent of the strength of Earth’s magnetic field, corresponds to billions of times less energy than the energy your eye receives when viewing even the brightest star in the night sky, and is billions of times smaller than that needed to affect biochemistry, the web sites of prominent clinics nevertheless market the claims."^’^ This belief has been published in the peer reviewed medical literature.^ Silence on this issue by the major scientific societies is a serious compromise of the scientific endeavors of those of us who work at the frontier of physics, medicine and biology. The terms, energy and field, are used by alternative medicine practitioners, and integrative medicine physicians without any understanding of their meaning; their on-line and public lectures impart the pretense that fields are unknown philosophical constructs. Invited speakers at medical meetings at major academic institutions philosophize about relationships between phenomena of many different magnitudes and sources, such as dark matter and biochemistry. The laws of quantum mechanics and electromagnetism are responsible for the biochemical bonding of molecules. Scientists understand that the discovery of dark matter is associated with the gravitational forces in our universe. No formulation of the properties of dark matter could have any observable effects between individual molecules in a cell. What follows is a tutorial on fields: Transmission of a force when objects are not in contact is represented by a set of vectors defined at all points in space which enumerate the direction and magnitude of the force. This set of vectors constitutes the field. There are four fundamental forces: gravitational, electromagnetic, weak nuclear, and strong nuclear. Other fundamental forces have been looked for and not found. Scientists cannot rule out the Washington Academy of Sciences 3 possibility that science may one day find a new force field, but should such a discovery occur it will be through using the tools and methodology of seience. Theorists understand that the strength of such a force must be much less than our weakest known force. We live in a gravitational field which causes an object near the surface of the Earth to fall with acceleration such that its velocity increases each second by 32 ft per sec. Further out from our planet this number is less. Place signs with these numbers all over space and you have a picture of the field and its associated action at a distance force. Knowing these numbers allows us to build rockets and satellites and explore outer space. Similarly we know the numbers for electromagnetic fields. This allows us to build MRI machines. Ultrasonic imaging arises from us knowing the numbers at the level of cells to image the densities in tissues. We are constantly bathed in electromagnetic fields from communication devices. Studies of equations for these forces and the enumeration of the strength of their fields underlie our current technology. When energy fields are used as a medium for conveying information, scientists ask and answer the following key questions: 1 . How large is the signal? 2. What is the transmitter located in the source? 3. What and where is the receiver? 4. How can the device be tuned and detuned? 5. Lastly, how can one replicate this by a device to be used for medical intervention? The alleged source of TT’s purported biomagnetic field is the practitioner, and the alleged receiver is the patient. Beyond this, TT practitioners fail to give detailed and plausible answers to the key questions above. TT practitioners’ adoption of the scientific term “biomagnetic” field, without an equation to describe the field and without any grounding in known physics and biochemistry, conveys the impression of scientific respectability to claims that have no scientific basis. Its claims are anecdotal and no measurements, such as blood work or respiratory function, are made. I’m sure your ENT or General Practitioner would never suggest visits to a TT practitioner to cure a hearing loss. Practitioners of alternative medicine never recommend it for intervention that has an easily measurable physiological response. Clinical trials using TT associated with the 1.8 million dollar NIH grant, which Winter 2010 4 were to measure the health of women with cervical cancer, were completed in 2006 and 2007 but a recent search using ClinicalTrials.gov database yields no reported results. Curiously, expert scientific thinking about and inventions using fields are welcomed by the evidence-based medical community but rejected by the integrative medicine community when this knowledge contradicts belief systems purported to be medically healing. ' David Hafemeister, “Resource Letter BELFEF-1: Biological effects of low-frequency electromagnetic r\e\ds,'" American Journal of Physics 64(8), 974-981 (1996). ^ Robert K. Adair, “Constraints on biological effects of weak extremely-low-frequency electromagnetic Physical Review AAdif), 1039-1048 (1991). ^ A report detailing the current claims, authored by myself and Derek Araujo, was issued by the Center for Inquiry, on September 28, 2009. http://www.centerforinquiry.net/uploads/attachments/A_Fracture_in our_Health_Ca re_Paying_for Non-Evidence Based_Medicine.pdf '* “Healing Touch is performed by registered nurses who recognize, manipulate and balance the electromagnetic fields surrounding the human body, thereby promoting healing and the well-being of body, mind and spirit.” Scripps Institute website: http://www.scripps.org/services/integrative-medicine/services ^ Affiliated with Harvard Medical Center is Brigham Young Hospital’s Osher Center. Course offerings have featured Reiki: “During this class you will receive a reiki level one attunement. This attunement enables you to become a channel for this universal healing energy which will be with you for your lifetime. From this point on you will be a reiki practitioner. With level one reiki you will be able to do healing on yourself, friends, family and pets.” See http://hms.harvard.edu/hms/home.asp; see also http://www.brighamandwomens.org/medicine/oshercenter/. " J. Orthop. Res. 26( 1 1 ), 1 54 1 - 1 546 (2008). Washington Academy of Sciences Leafing through History: Sciences, Humanities, Society 5 Alain Touwaide Historian of Sciences, Smithsonian Institution The history of sciences dramatically grew as a scientific discipline during the 20^’’ century, particularly in the United States, and it is now present in the cultural panorama throughout the country and in our daily life. Sputnik is in the political discourse, human origins are debated in the public arena, and the formation of the solar system is among those questions that impassion societies. On the other side, science is very much present in the historical discourse. DNA sequencing made it possible to identity the Iceman, chemical analysis helps reconstruct the history of Holy Land, and laboratory work offers new ways to identify ancient handwritten books. In recent years, the history of sciences has been transformed. It is no longer a documentary discipline aimed at illustrating the development of ideas, and discoveries, but has become part of the making of science. The most representative example is probably the research of Luca Cavalli Sforza (2005)‘ at Stanford University. His research on population genetics is key for the reconstruction of the complicated history of population movements and, among others, the understanding of the differentiated susceptibility (or immunity) to diseases of the several groups that make up our world. In this review, I wish to illustrate this new orientation of the current history of sciences by presenting some of the most recent published works (including some not so recent). I proceed by free associations of ideas, rather than by following a strict linear order, be it thematic, alphabetic (authors’ names) or any other. Rather than a series of formal reviews, this is a walk through the most advanced historical research with the goal of visiting some of the current programs, ideas, and new avenues for possible future new developments. Among the hot topics in science and archeology, one of the most intriguing is probably the origin of humans - the possible simultaneity of the Neanderthal and Homo sapiens sapiens species, and the birth of culture. At least it is a question that is regularly (and often unexpectedly) renewed with archeological discoveries. Archeologist David Wengrow (2010)" systematically reviews the available evidence on such defining Winter 2010 6 elements as the birth of agriculture, writing, and urbanism. And he suggests that the rise of modem civilization did not happen as a localized phenomenon (contrary to the traditional narrative that identifies Egypt, Mesopotamia, and, later on Greece, as the birthplaces of all this), but required the collaboration of - and exchanges between - the several groups in the area stretching from Africa to India to the east, and to Central Europe to the north. Nothing happened in isolation in what was already a global world. An echo of this inter-related universe can be found much later, in the Roman Empire. A vast territory and a unique polity that succeeded in bringing and keeping together a great variety of people, the Roman Empire at its zenith was also a sort of huge museum of natural history, a virtual collection of both the most usual and the most unheard rarities in the world, and a vast and all-encompassing library that contained a copy of almost all that had been written until then, be it in literature or in science. Classicist James C. McKeown (2010)“' (University of Wisconsin, Madison) has virtually recreated in the space of a book what may have been the ‘National Museum of Natural History of the Roman Empire.’ This is, because of the way he approaches it, a fresco describing the Roman world in all its aspects, a cut-and-paste collage in the way of the surrealists in the 20‘^ century, or - to use just a few comparisons - an encyclopedia that could have rivaled Diderot and d’Alembert or, more modemly, the Internet, Google, the Encyclopedia of Life^ and the Biodiversity Heritage Library^ McKeown read most of ancient available literature, cut out every single bit of information, pasted it in his notebook, and re-arranged this treasure trove in twenty-three thematic sections that tell us everything (and even more) about the Roman world, Roman science, Roman daily life, and Roman intimacy. We go from Family Life to Women, passing through Education, Army, Medicine, Farming, Animals, Food and Drink, and even Toilets and Not for the Puritanical. The point is not so much to collect rare, unique, and curious facts that nobody had researched before in the venerable and venerated classics (including in the much less venerable graffiti on Pompeii’s walls), but much more to glance at the people behind their uses, from the most brilliant and spectacular to the most modest and apparently insignificant. Science is no exception in his treasure trove. For example, Pliny in his Natural History noted - most probably on the basis of hearsay, if not common or popular knowledge, rather than bookish learning - that mandrake is drunk as an antidote to snakebites and as an anesthetic before surgery or injections, but care must be taken with the Washington Academy of Sciences 7 dosage: one whiff of it is enough to send some people to sleep f Now that Harry Potter has made mandrake popular and brought it into families’ homes, the information is more precious than ever. Similar research has been made by a team of historians who, grouped in the virtual space of a book, studied Everyday Objects (2010)''" (this is the title of the collection of their essays) in the Medieval and Early Modern worlds. Rather than a cabinet of curiosities, this is a thrift market where we try to guess with the authors who were the previous owners of the objects. We see old pair of shoes, pins and aglets, pots of all kinds, or bagpipes, for example, represented in books, described in literature, and even retrieved from walls where they were concealed. All this brie a brae (perfectly symbolized by the image of old, twisted, and rusted nails on the cover, significantly in sepia rather than in color) tells us a lot about people, and invites us to be careful with our own belongings and what they will suggest about their owners (that is, us) to third-millennium archeologists. Ancient glass is among the remains of the past. Cracking the mysteries of its making is another contribution of the history of sciences. Italian historian Marco Beretta did so in a volume whose title announces the multifaceted nature of his research: The Alchemy of Glass. Counterfeit, Imitation, and Transmutation in Ancient Glassmaking (2009).''*" Here the historian transmutes himself into a sort of alchemist who plays with matter to force it to reveal its secrets. Just like the Belgian historian of sciences Robert Halleux (1978)*^ did twenty-five years ago with ancient treatises on stones and metals, Beretta has moved the historical inquiry from his studio and library into a laboratory of chemistry and the atelier of a Murano glass maker in order to experiment in persona the ways of producing glass used in antiquity. This experimental history gives a new dimension to a traditional scholarly research; from a fundamental investigation, it turns into a technique that can be applied in the archeological restoration of works of art. The frontier between history, laboratory, and museum gallery, for example, is thinner than ever, and the clear definition of academic and technical fields is blurred in a way that reminds one of the ancient practice of science as illustrated by Leonardo da Vinci, for instance, who was everything together, a scholar and a scientist, a painter and a sculptor, a mathematician and a poet, an illusionist (think of La Joconde’s smile whose mystery has been recently explained) and an engineer. A deep knowledge of things and inter-penetration of what is now identified as different fields of science and practice permeates John Winter 2010 8 Riddle’s most recent book (1997).’^ The author has been known - and criticized - in the academia for his books on contraceptive, abortifacient, and similar substances in the past. Also, he has been instrumental in the development of what has been called the American School of the History of Pharmacy, claiming that ancient medico-pharmaceutical science had an empirical basis and is fundamentally valid. He even reached the conclusion (1985)^ that the H^-century Greek physician Dioscorides, often considered as the Father of Pharmacology (just as Hippocrates is graced with the title of Father of Medicine), had a pre-science of modem pharmaco-chemistry. On this basis, he has suggested that ancient pharmaco-therapeutic literature should be used as a source for current dmg discovery. In his most recent work (2010),^’ he returns to these topics and focuses on pomegranate, mandrake, artemisia and chaste tree, whose medicinal usages he retrieves from ancient texts and validates on the basis of contemporary science. Strangely enough, he concludes, no one of these plants is still in use, with the remarkable exception of Chinese artemisia, which has been reinstated in the treatment of malaria. As he puts it, “we lost so many clues that the past provides for us.” This question of losing a scientific heritage is at the heart of all the discussion about the role of the Arabo-Islamic world in western science. Characteristically, in the long tradition of studies of the relations between classical antiquity and the Arabic world (through the mediation of the Byzantine empire), the focus gradually shifted during the 20^^ century from highlighting the loans made by the Arabic world from Greco-Roman antiquity to a more equilibrated view considering both loans and contributions. These original developments were transmitted to the Middle Ages, be it from Baghdad in the East or Al-Andalus (that is, Spain) in the West. In 2008, however, the French historian Sylvain Gouguenheim claimed that the scientific patrimony generated in Antiquity was transmitted to the West almost directly, that is, without passing through the Arabic world. This provocative thesis has been rightly refuted and may have contributed to the production of a certain number of new works aimed at Western readers (scientists or not) that summed up the scientific achievements of the Arabic world. Jonathan Lyons (2009)""" offers a broad presentation of the scientific enterprise in the Arabic world that includes the question of the transmission of Arabic science to the West. Significantly, his work borrows its title from what has been believed for a long time to be an office of translation in Baghdad, the capital of the classical Arabic world: the House of Wisdom. Whatever the historical Washington Academy of Sciences 9 reality of this House of Wisdom, the Arabic world translated indeed most of the ancient scientific heritage, reformulated, adapted it to its own culture, and transmitted it further to both Byzantium and the West. John Freely (2010)^''' deals exclusively with the question of the transmission of Arabic science to the West. Although the non-specialist will probably not know it, the title of the book is more than just a title; it is a statement. It has been built on the model of a classic in the field, about the transmission of science from Greece to the Arabic world: De Lacy O’Leary (1949).’^'' A perfect illustration of the transfer of Arabic science to the West is represented by Gerbert d’Aurillac (ca. 945-950 - d. 1003), a scientist who went to Al-Andalus to learn from the Arabs. Significantly, in 999 this scholar was elected pope Sylvester III. His biography and scientific itinerary has been reconstructed in the form of a narrative by Nancy Marie Brown.'^''^ Of course, I will not agree with the sub-title and its claims of Dark Ages in the West (since there was no such thing as a Dark Age as historical research constantly demonstrates); nevertheless, when the expression is opposed to the Light of Science, I will be more inclined to accept it as a sign of the scientific difference between the Arabic world and the West in that time. One of the critical issues in the study of the continuity between the two worlds is the relation between science and faith. Jonathan Lyons concluded with this topic (p. 201): “under the direct influence of the Arab Aristotelians, Thomas [Aquinas] had carved out a truce between traditional church teachings and the discoveries of the emerging generations of modem Western scientists. That compromise defines the mles of engagement to this day between the realms of faith and reason. And it stakes the Arabs’ claim as inventors of the West ....” Ahmad Dallal (2010),^''" a professor at the American University of Beirut, goes directly to this debate by investigating how Arabs articulated the practice of science with philosophy and religion. He framed the two chapters (that make the core of the work) with an introductory chapter on the birth of Arabic science and a conclusive one on the reception of Arabic science in western historiography. In this conclusive chapter, we discover how the western vision of the Arabic world has been shaped by Orientalism, that is, the academic discipline having as an object the cultures of Near East. Winter 2010 10 This reference to Orientalism reminds us of the book by Edward Said'^"'*" (1935-2003) and his denouncing of Western colonialism and its embodiment in the Orientalist scholarly enterprise. However timely and influential it has been, Orientalism is now outdated and has been revisited by philologist and historian Karla Mallette (University of Michigan) in her book (2010).^^^ Mallette rightly points out that Orientalism (as an academic discipline rooted in a political ground) is a North-European phenomenon, not shared by the southern countries overlooking the Mediterranean. In the latter, indeed, the Arabic presence was part of the life of the populations, contributed to the shaping of the nations, and pertains to the local heritage, contrary to what happened in the north. Historian of science Margaret J. Oslef'^'^ (1942-2010) in her book (2010) scrutinizes the scientific concepts of nature from the 16^^ century on and shows how they are permeated - if not shaped - by classical culture and Arabic science, and also - and surprisingly, since we are talking about the beginnings of Western, rational science - by biblical tradition. When ancient (that is, mainly Greek) classical texts became much more available thanks to the development of printing, the Protestant Reformation could play an important role in the way scientists conceived the world. What is more important is that the definition of the humanist and scientific fields dating back as far as Aristotle (384-322 B.C.) was blurred as was also their traditional separation, something that generated a tension between science and religion. Interestingly, the current director of the National Institutes of Health, Francis S. Collins, who made history through the genome project (2010)''''’, illustrated on a personal basis how this tension between science and religion could be resolved in The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief (2006).""” Beyond this question of relationship between personal creed and the practice and theories of science(s), the transmission of theories and ideas is not a phenomenon limited to Antiquity and the Middle Ages, which the above discussion may suggest. In his work, Avner Ben-Zaken (20 1 0)""'" shows that the ancient heritage was actively studied in the East after the Renaissance, together with Western scientific theories diffused in the East through a reverse process of transmission, from west to east (that is, European science going east). In the East, this body of knowledge stimulated scientific thinking and contributed to the development of new theories, thus bringing to light a deep net of multi-directional relationships between East and West, contrary to the generally admitted view of a supremacy of the West and an increasing distance between the two parts Washington Academy of Sciences of the Old World (and, going together with this geographical and cultural division, between Christian and Muslim traditions). I wish to add a further touch of geographical multi-dimensionality to the image above, which goes beyond the limits of the Old World: algebra came from China as Roger Hart brilliantly demonstrates (2011).^'^"' As this overview of a selection from recent publications shows, the history of the sciences is part of the current debates in science. This is illuminated by putting the selections in perspective. It goes beyond, however, and provides elements toward a more equilibrated evaluation of the many components that contributed - and still contribute - to create the gigantic mosaic of our world (not only of science) by showing how science is both the expression of the many contemporary societies and a key factor in their shaping. As such, it is not only a specialist (or dilettante) activity, but a key to open access to world societies that are inseparable from the practice of science(s) and the study of societies. ' The History and Geography of Human Genes (Princeton University Press, 1994). On Cavalli Sforza’s research, see, for example, Linda Stone and Paul F. Lurquin, A Genetic and Cultural Odyssey. The Life and work of L. Luca Cavalli-Sforza (Columbia University Press, 2005). “ What Makes Civilization? The Ancient Near East and the Future of the West (Oxford University Press, 2010). A Cabinet of Roman Curiosities. Strange Tales and Surprising Facts from the world’s Greatest Empire (Oxford University Press, 2010). http;//www.eol.org. '' http://biodiversitylibrary.org. Natural History, 2. 1 50, reproduced p. 71 mA Cabinet of Roman Curiosities. Tara Hamling and Catherine Richardson eds. Everyday Objects (Farnham and Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2010). Sagamore Beach, MA: Science History Publications, 2009. Robert Halleux and Jacques Schamp, Les lapidaires grecs. Paris: Belles Lettres, 1985, to be complemented with John F. Healy, Mining and Metallurgy in the Greek and Roman World. London: Thames and Hudson, 1978. Contraception and Abortion from the Ancient World to the Renaissance and Eve 's Herbs. A History of Contraception and Abortion in the West, both Cambridge, MA, and London: Harvard University Press, 1992 and 1997, respectively. Dioscorides on Pharmacy and Medicine (History of Science Series 3). University of Texas Press, 1985. Winter 2010 12 Goddesses, Elixirs, and Witches. Plants and Sexuality throughout Human History. New York, NY: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2010. The House of Wisdom. How the Arabs transformed Western Civilization (New York, Berlin, London: Bloomsbury Press, 2009). Aladdin ’s Lamp. How Greek Science Came to Europe through the Islamic World (New York, NY: Vintage Books, 2010). How Greek Science passed to the Arabs (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1949. The Abacus and the Cross. The Story of the Pope Who Brought the Light of Science to the Dark Ages (New York: Basic Books, 2010). Islam, Science, and the Challenge of History (New Haven, CT, and London: Yale University Press, 2010). Orientalism (New York: Vintage Books, 1978). European Modernity and the Arab Mediterranean. Toward a New Philology and a Counter-Orientalism (Philadelphia, PA, and Oxford: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2010). Reconfiguring the World. Nature, God, and Human Understanding from the Middle Ages to Early Modern Europe (Johns Hopkins Introductory Studies in the History of Science. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010). see his book The Language of Life. DNA and the Revolution of Personalized Medicine. New York (NY): HarperCollins, 2010. New York: Free Press, 2006. Cross-Cultural Exchanges in the Eastern Mediterranean, 1560-1660 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010). The Chinese Roots of Linear Algebra (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2011). Washington Academy of Sciences 13 Calendars: What Day Is It Anyway? Sethanne Howard US Naval Observatory, retired Abstract The history of calendars and timekeeping matters. We use time in everything we do. Presented is a brief review of how humans keep time, and how they developed the calendars we use today. Introduction What time is it please? Everyone I know has asked that question sometime (look at that word sometime). How did we ever manage without a clock or calendar? Imagine what life would be like without ‘time.’ We can pretend, for instance, that the Earth always presents the same side to the Sun. This is not as impossible as it sounds. The Moon and Mercury already approximate this. In our pretend situation, the Sun would remain stationary in our sky. There would be no rising or setting; no sunsets to inspire the poets. One side of the Earth would always be very, very hot and light and the other side would always be very, very cold and dark. With no ‘days’ to measure time’s passing, the only natural clock would be that of aging. There would still be a year if one could see stars (only possible on the dark side). There might be a lunar month of sorts. People would still be bom, live, and die (in that order). These people would not measure their ages in days. In fact they would have difficulty measuring at all. There would be no way to count candles for a birthday cake. However, perhaps as technology advanced, they might find that they could count swings of a pendulum clock (e.g., 5436 swings for one lunch period). Eegend has it that Galileo did something like this in 1581 CE. At the age of 17 while in the Cathedral at Pisa, he timed the swinging of the cathedral lamp with his own pulse. He noticed that the time for the lamp to swing back and forth was always the same. He found that all church lamps did the same thing. This observation became the basis for his work in developing the pendulum clock. Back in our pretend world, people might count, then, a swinging pendulum or count their pulse rate (although this is not very constant) to determine what we know as time. Life would not be much fun for our Winter 2010 14 imaginary people without an 8:00 AM work time (it might also mean no 5:00 PM quitting time). The Diurnal Cycle and Timekeeping We are more fortunate than the people in this imaginary world. Our Sun rises and sets to mark the days; the daily (diurnal) rotation of the Earth has been and still is our primary timekeeper; we have seasons to mark the years; and we still have our biological clock. All clocks (even atomic clocks^) are only interpolating devices to measure out the time elapsing between two consecutive transits of the Sun overhead (across the local meridian astronomers call it). This clock can be as simple as a stick in the ground (called a gnomon, Figure 1) or as complicated as a hydrogen maser. The gnomon will cast a shadow during daylight hours. The shadow will be the shortest at midday. The gnomon was used quite early in our history. It is pictured on Egyptian pyramid texts as far back as 1450 BCE. The Chinese also used the gnomon, mentioned in the 2"^^ century Nine Chapters on the Mathematical Art as being used much earlier by the Duke of Zhou (1 1^*’ century BCE). Figure I. A gnomon in Russia Washington Academy of Sciences 15 The Lunar Cycle and Timekeeping Besides the daily rotation of the Earth, there is another natural timekeeper - the lunar cycle. This cycle through the phases of the Moon was very important to early cultures. Those specialists in the early tribes who could mark out the days and seasons and predict the phases of the Moon were not only the first astronomers, but also the wise ones of their tribes. Religious ceremonies could not begin until the ‘scientists’ gave the word. A group of wise ones, or priests/priestesses, is also called a synod (from the Greek cruv6>(5og). Since it was the synod that announced each New Moon, we call the time that it takes for the Moon to complete one cycle of phases a synodic month. The Solar Cycle and Timekeeping We think that time was measured first in days and moons (the word for month in many languages is derived from the word for moon) long before it was measured in years. Unfortunately for the calendar makers, people can live a long time (even more than 25,200 days or 840 months). Remembering the important numbers for everyone in the tribe can get, at the very least, tedious. Eventually people had to develop a calendar easier to count with than a strictly lunar or diurnal one. The growth of agriculture helped with this development. The wise ones of the tribe had to predict the seasonal changes so necessary for the planting and harvesting of crops. This seasonal time is determined by the Earth’s revolution about the Sun, and can be marked off by the Sun’s passage from solstice to solstice or equinox to equinox. The word solstice means ‘sun standing still:’ the rising Sun fell between (interstitial) the stones that marked the calendar and stayed there, i.e., the Sun appeared to rise at the same place on the horizon for a long time. The equinox occurs when the length of daylight hours equals the length of nighttime hours. There are two solstices (winter and summer) and two equinoxes (spring/vemal and fall/autumnal) per year. They divide the year into quarters and so are called quarter days. Cross quarter days fall halfway between the quarter days. February 2 (Groundhog’s Day, Imbolc^, or Candlemas^) is an example of a cross quarter day. There are, therefore, eight astronomical-based times that mark out the year. Many religions (both ancient and modern) have important festivals that fall on these particular days. Winter 2010 BCE<- ^CE 16 Figure 2. Timeline of some astronomical archeological sites Washington Academy of Sciences 17 Astronomical Timekeeping and Archeology This leads me to my next point. Developing and maintaining calendars was the main duty of ancient astronomers. It kept astronomers employed for millennia. The various pieces of the calendar - years, months, weeks, days, seasons, equinoxes, solstices - all needed an astronomer to confirm. Talk about job security! There are archeological remnants around the world that show how important astronomical timekeeping was. Figure 2 shows a timeline of some astronomical timekeeping sites. The standing stones on the island of Malta are a prime example. One of the most famous sets of standing stones is Stonehenge. Then there is the chamber tomb at Newgrange Ireland - a well preserved tomb that marks the winter solstice. It is a World Heritage Site. Newgrange was built between 3100 and 2900 BCE. The Sun shines down its chamberway reaching all the way to the end only on the winter solstice. The El Castillo pyramid at Chichen Itza, Mexico (Figure 3) has four sides. With ninety-one steps on a side, El Castillo is a calendar of sorts: 4 times 91 is 364, plus the one step on the top of the pyramid makes a total of 365, as in 365 days of the year. On the equinoxes, the rising sun creates a shadow serpent along the edge of the steps. Figure 3. The El Castillo Pyramid Winter 2010 18 The famous Anasazi sun dagger is in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico (Figure 4). It was constructed of three large stone slabs wedged upright with smaller stones. On the day of the summer solstice, a dagger of light cast by the rising sun bisects a spiral carved into the rock behind the stones. On the winter solstice, two daggers of light frame the spiral. Figure 4. The sun dagger at Chaco Canyon the sunlight marks the yearly cycle by moving back and forth across the spiral cut into the rock Ancient Solar Eclipses Predicting eclipses was also an important task for astronomers. Astronomers can also compute when eclipses occurred in the past. Historians then search the records for mention of those eclipses. Once a mention is found, it can be used to date historical events and therefore correlate the calendars from different cultures. Solar eclipses tended to be recorded because they were often sources of fear. There is, however, uncertainty about when the earliest recorded solar eclipse occurred. There are at least three in contention for this. The clay tablet found in 1948 among the ruins of the ancient city of Ugarit in what is now Syria lists a solar eclipse on 5 March 1223 BCE. '‘"On the day of the new moon, in the month of Hiyar, the Sun was put to shame, and went down in the daytime, with Mars in attendance. Then, of course, there is the Chinese eclipse of October 22, 2134 BCE. The date is not certain. Historians know the account was written sometime within a period of about two hundred years. During that time there were several total eclipses visible in China. The 2134 BCE eclipse is simply the best guess. The ancient Chinese document Shu Ching records that ‘the Sun and Moon did not meet harmoniously.’ It goes on to say that Washington Academy of Sciences 19 the two royal astronomers, Hsi and llo, had neglected their duties and failed to predict the event (they were, apparently, drunk). When this eclipse took place, the emperor was caught unprepared. Even though the Sun returned, the angry ruler ordered the astronomers beheaded. Not so good job security for them! In 2000 archaeo-astronomer Paul Griffin found mention of a solar eclipse at the multi cairn site at the Loughcrew Cairn L Megalithic Monument in Ireland. It corresponds to a solar eclipse which occurred on November 30, 3340 BCE.^ Because astronomers can compute the exact dates for past eclipses, historians can use this information to adjust their timelines for the various cultures. The earlier one can do this, the better for chronology of history. Taxes and Timekeeping Obviously people cared about the calendar for agricultural reasons and celebrating communal activities, but they also relied on it for (aaugh!) taxes. Indeed, the first Sumerian texts are mundane record-keeping logs - lists of grain and animals received by the temples - i.e., tax documents. The Sumerians did not coin money; therefore, they paid taxes in kind - cows and sheep for poll taxes - merchant goods for tolls and duty fees. This was not a minor tax. For example, during one year in Ebla (northern Palestine - 3"^^ millennium), the temple received 36,892 sheep. Naturally people tried to avoid burdensome taxes (it is an old custom). There is a delightful letter (1900 BCE) from a trader to his employee: Irra’s son sent smuggled goods to Pushuken but his smuggled goods were intercepted. The Palace then threw Pushuken in jail! The guards are strong ... please don ’t smuggle anything else! Hammurapi (1792 - 1750 BCE), worried about changes in the calendar losing him income, wrote: The year is out of place. Have the next month recorded under the name of Ululu II. Payment of taxes at Babylon, instead of ending on the 25'^ of Tasritu, shall end on the 25^^ of Ululu II. Taxes in Egypt were also a fact of life. These included levies on cattle, grain, and payment in various kinds of human labor. There were ad hoc taxes for special purposes. There were even tax shelters - royal charters of immunity from taxes - documented as early as the fourth Winter 2010 20 dynasty in the Old Kingdom (2625 - 2500 BCE). The staff of the temples - often themselves funded through tax revenues - received such immunity from taxes, including immunity from compulsory labor.^ Days, Weeks, Years, and Timekeeping Once people started marking time in days, months, and years, they needed to subdivide them. Early cultures had no common division of the day into equal time intervals, no weeks, and no universal origin for the numbering of the years. Each culture defined its own origin of the day: the Hebrews began the day at sunset; the Egyptians at sunrise; the Babylonians at moonrise. The Babylonians also divided the day into two sections (a day watch and a night watch), each section six ‘Babylonian hours’ long - thus marking a twelve hour day. They probably measured out their day watches with the gnomon. They also adopted the base 60 system of math from the earlier Sumerians. This is where we get 60 seconds to the minute, 60 minutes to the hour, the 12 hour clock, and the 4 week month. The length of the week varied with the culture. The early Romans th used an 8 day cycle (until the 4 century emperor Theodosius put the 7 day week into the Roman calendar). The ancient Britons had a 5 day week. The Greeks used the decade, dividing the month into three periods of ten days each. The people in India and Mesopotamia all used a 7 day week. Seven was common in the ancient world because there are seven celestial objects to track: the Sun, the Moon, Mercuiyy Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn. Each one had its day. Sunday was the day of the Sun; Monday was the day of the Moon. In the western Mediterranean, as the concept of the week spread, days were named after planets. These planetary names are still apparent in Romance languages. Mardi (from the planet Mars) is Tuesday in French. In the Germanic languages Roman deities were replaced by Germanic deities. Friday was named after Freyja or Freya, the goddess of love and fertility, and Tuesday after the god Tyr, the Norse god of battle and courage. Thursday was named after Thor, the Norse god of thunder. Variations of ‘Thor’ remain in use in many personal names, female as well as male, in modern Scandinavian languages. Thor was the son of Odinor Woden, the chief god of the Norse pantheon whose name gave us Wednesday. Britain got its day names indirectly from the same source through Anglo-Saxon. The numbering of years was even more inconsistent. Years could be numbered from the beginning of a king’s reign, or from the taking of a census, or counted in generations of people, or Olympian Games. Washington Academy of Sciences 21 How do some of the various years correlate? This is not a trivial problem. A few identifications are: 1 AUC 1 AUC 1 AUC = 1 Anno Urbis Conditae, the year of the founding of the city of Rome = the 4^^ year of the Olympian == the year 1263 Era of Abraham The Year 1 Era of Abraham == 1 October 2016 BCE The year 525 CE The year 1 CE The year 0 0 0 0 = the year 1288 AUC = the year 754 AUC = creation of the Earth = about 4.5 billion years ago from scientific measurements = Saturday, 22 October, 9:00 AM, 4004 BCE (determined by Bishop James Ussher) = 3716 BCE Hebrew calendar Add in the fact that each culture used its own date for New Year’s Day and it becomes very complicated to compare dates across cultures. Years could start in March, in January, in December, or whenever. The calendar is a long term timekeeper. The word ‘calendar’ comes from the Eatin word calare which means to proclaim. Hence the Roman Kalends of each month proclaimed the beginning of that month, a remnant of the importance of each New Moon. Modern Timekeeping Today we perhaps pay less attention to short passages of time, although we still mark annual celebrations and holidays with a calendar. How did we get a calendar with variations that most of us can safely ignore? We did it with astronomy. There are three key astronomical events that mark modern timekeeping: 1. The day - the time from one sunrise to the next - one complete rotation of the Earth. This is called a solar day. 2. The month - the time it takes the Moon to complete one full orbit around the Earth. The synodic month, the mean interval between conjunctions of the Moon and Sun, corresponds to one cycle of Winter 2010 22 lunar phases - New Moon to New Moon. A synodic month is about 29.53059 days. 3. The year - the time it takes the Earth to complete one full orbit around the Sun. The tropical year is defined as the mean interval between vernal equinoxes; it corresponds to the cycle of the seasons. A tropical year is about 365.24219 days.^ This may sound simple enough; however, these time spans do not easily divide into each other (reconcile with each other). There is always a bit left over, so calendars have always been imperfect. You can count time by days, but you will quickly reach very high numbers even during one person’s lifetime. You can count time by months, except the lunar month is not an even number of days. You can count time by years, except the year is not an even number of days or months. It is an unlucky accident that the Moon completes its cycle of phases in about four weeks and that twelve lunar months are very close to the length of the year. Early civilizations went to great lengths to devise calendars that tried to reconcile the lunar year of twelve months to the solar year of 365 days. Each culture found its way to deal with the problem. The current world civil calendar focuses on the Earth’s orbit. Many religious calendars use a combination of the Moon’s orbit and the Earth’s orbit. Some stick strictly with the Moon’s orbit. Certain floating religious dates {e.g., Easter, Passover) rely on rather complicated and archaic astronomical calculations. Three distinct types of calendars have resulted from this situation: 1. A solar calendar, e.g., the civil (Gregorian) calendar, maintains o synchrony with the tropical year. To do so, days are intercalated - forming leap years to increase the average length of the calendar year. This type of calendar depends on the Earth’s orbit. 2. A lunar calendar, e.g., the Islamic calendar, follows the lunar phase cycle without regard for the tropical year. Thus the months of the Islamic calendar systematically shift with respect to the months of the Gregorian calendar. This type of calendar depends only on the lunar phase cycle. 3. A lunisolar calendar, e.g., the Hebrew and Chinese calendars, has a sequence of months based on the lunar phase cycle; but every few years a whole month is intercalated to bring the calendar back in phase with the tropical year. It combines a lunar with a solar calendar. Washington Academy of Sciences 23 There are six principal calendars (developed from the above three) in current use. These are the Gregorian (civil), Hebrew, Islamic, Indian, Chinese, and Julian Calendars. The civil calendar is used worldwide by international treaty. The rules for the civil calendar are maintained by astronomers at various official almanac offices. Many countries have such offices. In the US, the Nautical Almanac Office is at the US Naval Observatory in Washington, DC. They publish calendar information each year in The Astronomical Almanac. The legal code of the United States does not specify an official national calendar. Since the tropical year is not an even number of days, the civil calendar adopted common years (365 days) and leap years, where one year of every four is a leap year of 366 days. Years are customarily counted from the beginning of the Christian era, but the first year of this era is CE 1, and the immediately preceding year is 1 BCE. There is no year zero, since zero was not used as a real number in the Mediterranean region during the early centuries of our era. Each of the three calendar types contributes to the development of the current civil calendar. Eet us start with the solar calendar. The Solar Calendar - History and Reforms Solar calendars are sometimes confused with sundials. The sundial (gnomon) gives the time of day. The solar calendar gives the time of year. The story of the solar calendar starts with Egypt. The Sun is an obvious calendar marker, especially in those areas with lots of sunlight such as Egypt. They recognized a year with 365 days - a solar calendar - marking the Earth’s orbit. They began each year when the Nile rose to its height. Historians think the Egyptians started their calendar on a day not only when the Nile was at its height, but also when the star Sirius (or Sopdet, translated into Greek as Sothis) rose at the same time as the Sun.^ They defined the year to be exactly twelve months of 30 days each plus five extra holiday days tacked on at the end to give a total of 365 days. However, the Egyptian year of 365 days, will, after an interval of four years, begin about one day too early with respect to the solar year. As a result, the Egyptian months retrogress through the seasons, making a complete cycle in about 1460 years (1461 Egyptian years = 1460 solar years). This is called a Sothic cycle. During a Sothic cycle, the 365-day Winter 2010 24 year loses enough time that the start of the year once again coincides with the heliacal rising of the star Sirius. Historians use the Egyptian calendar To see what fun historians have with this, start with Censorinus (3*^^ century Roman writer), who recorded a heliacal rise (rose with the Sun) of Sirius on the Egyptian New Year’s Day (Thoth 1) on July 20 of 139 CE. With this reference he could correlate the Egyptian calendar to the Julian calendar. One also needs to know the place of observation, since the latitude of the observation can change the day when the heliacal rising of Sirius occurs, and an error in the location can then change the resulting chronology by several decades. Given this one start date of the Sothic cycle one can back up by Sothic cycles to 1321 BCE, 2781 BCE, and 4241 BCE to see what one finds. There are three mentions of the heliacal rise of Sirius important for Egyptian chronology. The first is the ivory tablet from the reign of Djer (2"^ or 3'^'^ pharaoh of the First Dynasty) which supposedly indicates the beginning of a Sothic cycle. If this does indicate the beginning of a Sothic cycle, it must date to about 2781 BCE. However, this date is too late for Djer’s reign (c. 3100 BCE) so many scholars believe that it indicates a correlation between the rising of Sothis and the lunar calendar instead of the solar calendar. The lunar calendar, however, was less important to the Egyptians. The second observation is believed to date to the seventh year of Senusret III (1878 - 1839 BCE) and is used to date the Twelfth Dynasty to 1963 - 1786 BCE. The third observation was in the reign of Amenhotep I and, assuming it was made in Thebes, dates his reign between 1525 and 1504 BCE. If made in Memphis, Heliopolis, or some other site instead, as a minority of scholars still argue, the entire chronology of the Eighteenth Dynasty needs to be expanded by some 20 years. All of this is important because it not only sets a timeline for Egypt but also links the Egyptian timeline to other cultures. A document which dates to the Amama period (the famous Akhenaton) was found in the ancient Hittite capital of Hattusa. The Hittite king received a letter from the Egyptian queen. The letter reads: My husband has died and I have no son. They say about you that you have many sons. You might give me one of your sons to become my husband. I would not wish to take one of my subjects as a husband... I am afraid. Washington Academy of Sciences 25 Understandably, the king was wary and had an envoy investigate, but by so doing, he missed his chance to bring Egypt into his empire. He eventually did send one of his sons, but the prince died, perhaps murdered, en route. The identity of the queen who wrote the letter is uncertain. Ankhesenamen, the third daughter of Nefertiti and Akhenaton, seems most likely since there were no candidates for the throne on the death of her husband, Tutankhamen. By using this letter to date this time in Egypt we can then date the extensive Hittite King Eist (it stretches over one thousand years). Tie this to the times of eclipses and we have a system for dating early history. The Romans Enter the Picture People kept trying to improve the Egyptian solar calendar. For example, in 238 BCE, Ptolemaios III Euergetes attempted to reform the Egyptian calendar by inserting a leap day once every four years, a good idea. His subjects refused to accept it (calendar change is ever unpopular). Things stayed as they were until Rome became an ascendant power and Egypt declined. The Romans, however, used a rather flaky lunisolar calendar (Figure 5). Legend has Romulus setting the year to have ten months, the New Year starting in March. This is why September has the name of the seventh month. The Romans moved months around and inserted and deleted months at various times without much consistency. Through neglect and incompetence, the calendar was not properly updated. By 50 BCE, it was some 80 days out of step with the seasons. This played havoc with religious festivals, with legal contracts, etc. Figure 5. A Roman calendar stone Winter 2010 26 Two people took action to reform the messy Roman calendar: Gains Julius Caesar (100 BCE - 44 BCE) and Caesar Augustus (63 BCE - 14 CE), the first emperor of the Roman Empire. Julius Caesar was elected Pontifex Maximus in 63 BCE (and thus responsible for the calendar). He made drastic changes. He abandoned the old lunisolar calendar and adopted a purely solar calendar, following the technical advice of Sosigenes, a Greek astronomer sent to him by Cleopatra of Egypt. He also moved New Year’s Day from March 15 to January 1. The Romans promptly dubbed this new Julian year the “year of confusion.” Julius scattered the five year end holidays throughout the year creating seven 3 1 day months, four 30 day months, and one 28 day month (February was unlucky). He then added one extra day every four years. This leap day was to be added just before Day Six before the March Kalend. This Day Six was to be repeated once every four years, creating a double sixth year. The official term for leap year is bissextile year. When one changes the beginning of the year from one month to another it gets difficult to compare dates. It was no wonder that the Romans dubbed the changed year the “year of confusion.” Astronomers, by the way, avoid the whole thing by using the Julian Date, a running day count. They count days in sequence from January 1, 4713 BCE Greenwich noon. December 25, 2010 is Julian Date 2455555.500000. Why that particular start date? Well, it is complicated, so I put it in an endnote.*' The use of Julian Date to refer to the day-of-year is usually considered an incorrect usage although it is widely used that way in the earth sciences, computer programming, and the food industry. 1 9 To return to the Romans, after Caesar’s assassination in 44 BCE, the Roman Senate honored his memory by renaming his birth-month (Quintilis) lulius (July). Elnfortunately the prescribed intercalation was actually performed once every three years instead of four so that, by 9 BCE, 12 intercalary days had been inserted, while Caesar’s formula had called for only 9. The priests, who were inclusive counters*^ like all Romans, had misunderstood Sosigenes’ prescription. To bring the calendar back into step with the original plan, Caesar Augustus decreed in 8 BCE that all intercalations be omitted until 8 CE. The Roman Senate honored Augustus by renaming for him the month of Sextilis (August). The Julian calendar operated from 8 CE until the Gregorian reform of 1582. This does not mean, however, that everyone used it. Many Christians, for example, counted years from the Era of Abraham. The Washington Academy of Sciences 27 Romans counted years trom the beginning of the reign of the emperor Diocletian (244-311 CE). There were still calendar issues, especially with the date of Easter. To predict the date of Easter, one has to calculate the date of future Full Moons. People typically used any of four cycles to link the month to the year: the Greek cycle (8 years = 99 months'"^); the Metonic cycle'^ (19 years = 235 months); the Roman cycle (84 years = 1039 months'^); and the Victorius cyele (combines the Metonic cycle with the 28 year cycle for days of the week = 532 years). None of these was perfect, although the Metonic cycle eomes close. So it was time for standardization. The Council o/Nicaea In 325 CE the Council of Nicaea'^ established the Julian calendar as the official Christian one.^^ The Council also set Easter to be the Sunday that immediately follows the Full Moon (defined as the 14^^ day of the lunar cycle), which occurs on or after the vernal equinox. Should that Full Moon happen on a Sunday, Easter is the following Sunday. The Julian ealendar eventually settled on 21 March as the date of the vernal equinox. Many churches used the Victorius cycle to compute Easter. Most places accepted this; however, Britain and Ireland preferred to keep the Roman cycle. About 200 years later at the Synod of Whitby (Yorkshire, England, 664 CE) Britain and eventually Ireland decided to aecept the system used by the church in Rome. Clearly, though, the system still lacked consistency, and in stepped Denis the Little. From the Council to Denis the Little About the year 530 CE, the monk Dionysius Exiguus - “Denis the Little” - from Scythia in southwest Russia constructed a table of Easter dates for a period which he designated Anno Domini Jesu Christi 532-550. Although Dionysius did not date any historical event, the implication was that Anno Diocletiani 248 had to be 532 years after the birth of Jesus Christ in 1 BCE. Scholars generally believe that Christ was bom some years before CE 1 ; however, the historical evidence is too sketchy to allow a definitive dating. Nevertheless the Anno Domini (AD) method caught on and was in wide use by 800 CE. Of course, Dionysius did not use the Council of Nicaea’s method. Fie apparently thought it incomect. He adapted the Easter tables prepared in Alexandria, Egypt to the Victorius Winter 2010 28 cycle. Ultimately the Dionysian tables and the Anno Domini system were accepted throughout the western world. One might think the issue was now resolved. Although the Julian leap year rule is a simple one, it still does not produce a precise match to the solar year. Over the centuries the date of the astronomical vernal equinox slowly drifted away from the date of 21 March. It was time for another reform. Before we discuss the Gregorian reform, let us bring in the other two types of calendars: lunisolar and lunar. Lunisolar Calendars The lunisolar calendar was an ingenious attempt to bring the months (lunar) and the year (solar) into coincidence. One of the methods used most often was to intercalate an extra month every few years. It might be done randomly, but usually it was not. In the fifth century BCE a Greek astronomer, Meton, set down specific rules for inserting these extra months. If one picks a year that starts with a New Moon and lets the months run in sequence, 235 lunar months (19 years) will pass before another year comes that starts on a New Moon. In other words the Full Moon appears on the same day in that year as it did 19 years earlier. This 19-year period defines the Metonic Cycle. The same pattern of lunar phase and date in the year repeats every 19 years. A calendar maker needs to follow only one pattern - change the number of months for a pre-chosen pattern of years and repeat that pattern every 19 years. This number was so important to ancient calendar makers that the Greeks inscribed this number in golden letters on a temple in Athens - hence the term The Golden Number, G. Today’s almanacs, including The Astronomical Almanac, provide The Golden Number. As it turns out, however, the Metonic Cycle is not quite exactly 19 years. It is off by about two hours per cycle. The Hebrew Calendar is a lunisolar calendar based on calculation rather than observation. Its current form dates from about 359 CE. This calendar is the official calendar for the State of Israel, although variations on this calendar exist. The dates for Passover and Rosh Hashanah for this calendar are computed from a complicated set of defined rules. Because of the roughly 1 1 day difference between twelve lunar months and one solar year, the length of the Flebrew calendar year varies in a repeating 19-year Metonic cycle of 235 lunar months, with an intercalary lunar month added according to defined rules every two or three years, for a total of 7 times Washington Academy of Sciences 29 per 19 years. That means there are twelve 12 month years and seven 13 month years for every 19 solar years. The National Calendar of India is a formalized lunisolar calendar in which leap years coincide with those of the civil calendar, fhe civil calendar is used for administrative purposes. The Indian religious calendars require precise calculations of the motions of the Sun and Moon. Tabulations of the religious holidays are prepared by the India Meteorological Department and published annually in The Indian Astronomical Ephemeris. Many local variations exist. The Chinese Calendar is a lunisolar calendar based on precise calculations of the positions of the Sun and Moon. Since this calendar uses the true positions of the Sun and Moon, its accuracy depends on the accuracy of the astronomical theories and calculations. Lunar Calendars A lunar calendar depends solely on the phases of the Moon. There is a lunar calendar in current use - The Islamic calendar. Months correspond to the synodic lunar month. Thus the twelve months of the Islamic Calendar systematically shift with respect to the months of the Gregorian calendar. After three years, a strictly lunar calendar will have diverged from the solar calendar by 33 days, or more than one lunation. For religious purposes, Muslims begin each month with the first visibility of the lunar crescent after conjunction. It is not based on astronomical calculations but on actual sighting of the crescent moon by one or more trustworthy men. Due to the difficulty in actually sighting the crescent moon, the beginning of each month differs from one Muslim country to another, and the information provided by the calendar in any country does not extend beyond the current month. For civil purposes a tabulated calendar that approximates the lunar phase cycle is often used. The astronomical date and time of each New Moon can be computed exactly; however, the time an observer first sees that young Moon cannot be computed exactly. The time the Moon first becomes visible after the New Moon depends on many factors. The various effects are the geometry of the Sun, Moon, and natural horizon; the width and surface brightness of the crescent; the absorption of the Moon’s light and the scattering of the Sun’s light in the Earth’s atmosphere; and the physiology of human vision. These things all change very rapidly. Her Majesty’s Nautical Almanac Office (British) computes the time of New Moon and provides information sheets that give the date of earliest Winter 2010 30 visibility of the new crescent Moon for each lunar month for a selection of cities in the UK and around the world. The holy month of Ramadan occurs at different times in the Gregorian year because the Islamic calendar is a strictly lunar one. Similarly the A1 Hijra (the New Year) shifts throughout the Gregorian year. And now back to the reform that led to the Gregorian calendar. The Gregorian Calendar Named for Pope Gregory XIII, the Gregorian calendar is the internationally accepted'^ civil calendar. The leap year rule for the Gregorian calendar differs slightly from one for the Julian calendar. The Gregorian leap year rule is: Every year that is exactly divisible by four is a leap year, except for years that are exactly divisible by 100; the centurial years that are exactly divisible by 400 are still leap years. For example, the year 1900 is not a leap year; the year 2000 is a leap year. Why was it put in place? If a leap day is added every fourth year, then the average length of the calendar year is 365.25 days. This is the basis of the Julian calendar; the Julian year is longer than the tropical year by about 0.0078 days. Over a century this difference accumulates to a little over three quarters of a day. So from the time of Julius Caesar to the sixteenth century the beginning of Spring (the vernal equinox) had slipped from March 23 to March 11. This slippage of the vernal equinox messed with the calculation of the official date for Easter, hence the need for reform. In addition, different countries still used their own set of tables to set religious dates. When Pope Gregory XIII instituted the Gregorian calendar in 1582, the calendar was shifted to make the vernal equinox fall on March 21, and a new system of leap days was introduced. The Pope issued a Papal Bull which dropped the ten days between October 4 and October 15. October 5 became October 15. The cycle of the days of the week did not change. Instead of intercalating a leap day every fourth year, 97 leap days would be introduced every 400 years. Thus, the average Gregorian calendar year is 365.2425 days in length. This agrees to within a half a minute of the length of the tropical year. It will take about 3300 years before the Gregorian calendar is as much as one day out of step with the seasons. On time scales of thousands of years, the Gregorian calendar falls Washington Academy of Sciences 31 behind the seasons because the slowing down of the Earth’s rotation makes each day slightly longer over time while the year maintains a more uniform duration. The intent of the reform was to return to the rules that the Council of Nicaea set for Easter. This means one now has to use an arcane and messy set of tables and calculations to compute the date of Easter. Those national almanac offices do this for their respective countries. Of course Pope Gregory was a Roman Catholic. His rational for the change was to correct the date of Easter. The Protestant countries did not want to adopt a Catholic change to the calendar, so they kept using the Julian calendar. This meant that Paris kept one time, Berlin another, and London yet another. Germany and the Netherlands finally agreed to adopt the Gregorian calendar in 1698; Russia only accepted it after the revolution of 1918, and Greece waited until 1923 to follow suit. Currently many Orthodox churches still follow the Julian calendar, which now lags 13 days behind the Gregorian. This is why Orthodox Easter only occasionally coincides with Gregorian Easter. It eventually became prudent for everyone to make the calendar change when the speed and ease of travel changed. In the old days a traveler taking days or weeks to complete a journey could easily (or not) adapt to the changing times in different places. Different cities used different New Year’s Days. For instance, if one left Venice on its March 1, 1245 CE, one could travel to Florence and arrive in 1244 CE, and on to Pisa by 1246 CE, to Provence in 1245 CE, and finally arrive in France by April 16, 1244 CE. This made fulfilling commercial contracts a bit difficult. Once speedy travel, especially rail travel, was available, such unwieldy time changes were a burden. Economics drove the Protestant countries to adopt the Gregorian calendar. Britain adopted the Gregorian calendar via the British Calendar Act of 1751, which declared the day after Wednesday the second of September 1752 to be Thursday the fourteenth of September 1751. The Earl of Chesterfield, the Earl of Macclesfield,, and James Bradley (the astronomer royal) in a short three months pushed a Bill through Parliament. Parliament said that the Julian calendar “attended with divers inconveniences, not only as it differs from the usage of neighbouring nations, but also from the legal method of computation in Scotland, and from the common usage throughout the whole kingdom, and thereby frequent mistakes are occasioned in the dates of deeds and other writings, and disputes arise therefrom.” Winter 2010 32 That September became the shortest month in history (19 days long). Losing 1 1 days in a month might not sound so important; however, seeing a good opportunity, landlords charged full rent for the missing 1 1 days. Legend has it that mobs in Boston rioted saying ‘give us back our 1 1 days.’ Ultimately the world came to use the Gregorian calendar for all civil uses. One might think that the calendar issue is now fixed and people are content. Are There Other Calendars? Since the time of Gregory XIII, many other proposals for calendar reform have been made. In the 1840s, philosopher Auguste Comte s^SS^sted that the 365 day of each year be a holiday not assigned a day of the week. The generic “Year Day” would allow January 1 to fall on a Sunday every year. This calendar was not adopted. French Revolutionary Calendar The French Revolutionary Convention attempted to introduce a new calendar. On October 5, 1793, they decreed that the year (starting on September 22, 1792 — the autumnal equinox, and the day after the proclamation of the new republic) would be divided into 12 months of 30 days, named after corresponding seasonal phenomena {e.g., seed, blossom, harvest). The remaining five days of the year, called sans-culottides^ were feast days. In leap years, the extra day. Revolution Day, was to be added to the end of the year. The Revolutionary calendar had no week; each month was divided into three decades, with every tenth day to be a day of rest. This calendar, however, perished with the Republic. Mayan Calendar The ancient Mayan calendar is of interest to some people who mistakenly believe it foretells the end of the world in 2012. The Mayan calendar is called the Tzolk’in. The Tzolk’in is combined with a 365-day calendar (known as the HaaF), to form a cycle lasting 52 Haab’s called the Calendar Round. A different calendar was used to track longer periods of time, and for the inscription of calendar dates. This is the Long Count. It is a count of days since a mythological starting-point. According to the correlation between the Long Count and Western calendars accepted by the great majority of Maya researchers, this starting-point is equivalent to August Washington Academy of Sciences 33 11, 3114 BCE in the proleptic Gregorian calendar or 6 September in the Julian calendar. The Maya name for a day was k’in. Twenty k’ins are known as a winal or iiinal. Eighteen winals make one tun. Twenty tuns are known as a k’atun. Twenty k’atuns make a b’ak’tun. This made for a remarkably precise calendar. Misinterpretation of the Long Count calendar is the basis for an incorrect belief that a cataclysm will take place on December 21, 2012. Rather, December 21, 2012 is simply the first day of the 14^^ b’ak’tun, and is to be an occasion for a huge celebration. The portrayal of this date as a doomsday event is complete fabrication. There is zero evidence for a cataclysmic event. There are no solar system alignments of any consequence. There are no galactic alignments of any consequence. These various Mayan calendar cycles, as well as other natural cycles (weather, birth, and death), influenced the Mayan societies in much the same way as natural cycles influenced other cultures. Right now there are no competing versions to the Gregorian calendar. Thus the world uses the Gregorian calendar for civil use, and relies on astronomers to compute the dates for floating religious festivals like Easter and Passover. Elowever, there is, perhaps, one remaining question - the millennium. Between You and Me and the Millennium Just when was the millennium? It does not really matter; however, since you asked. Y ears of the Gregorian calendar are counted from CE 1 . There was no zero. Thus, the 1st century was the years CE 1 through CE 100. The second century began with CE 101 and continued through CE 200. By extrapolation we find that the 20^*^ century was the years CE 1901 - 2000. Therefore, the 2C‘ century began with 1 January 2001 and will continue through 31 December 2100. Similarly, the millennium comprised the years CE 1 - 1000. The 2^^ millennium comprises the years CE 1001 - 2000. The 3"^^ millennium began with CE 2001 and will continue through CE 3000. Since most people (except a few astronomers) thought the millennium occurred at midnight 31 December 1999, astronomers, knowing a good thing, decided to hold the official party on both dates. The US Naval Observatory held the millennium party on 31 December 1999 and again on 3 1 December 2000. A good time was had by all. Winter 2010 34 The passage of time continues to fascinate us. Yearly events are more than occasions for celebrations; they indicate a continuous change, always forward, never backward. Time marches on; we cannot go back. Now that the calendar is set, have a happy birthday each year, enjoy the changes of the seasons, and do not worry about imaginary planetary alignments that signal nothing. The year 2012 will be an occasion to celebrate renewal. Relax in the assumption that the astronomers have the calendar well in hand. Counting ticks on an atomic clock does not tell us the time. We must correlate it to the Earth s rotation. The National Institute of Standards and Technology tells us how long the second is. The system of clocks at the US Naval Observatory tells us when that second occurs. 2 A pagan holiday originating in Ireland The date of the presentation of Jesus at the Temple J T. de Jong & W. H. van Soldt Nature 338, 238 - 240 (16 March 1989) http://www.astronomy.ca/3340eclipse/ http://www.upenn.edu/almanac/v48/n28/AncientTaxes.html This number is known precisely, but it is not constant. It must be re-computed for each year. This means to insert into the calendar ^ Sirius is the brightest star in the northern hemisphere sky. Called the Dog Star by the ancient Egyptians, it embodied Isis, wife of Osiris (the constellation of Orion). http://www.hittites.info/ “ The start date for counting Julian Days was set by Joseph Scaliger (1583) to be the product of the three cycles of the Sun (28 years). Moon (19 years), and Indiction. Indiction, well, that cycle is not astronomical, but is set by certain judicial acts by the Greek/Roman emperors. It is a 15 year cycle. So it all is very messy. The cycles all coincided at the date January 1, 4713 BCE. See the Encyclopedia Britannica, 1 1* edition. On the ides of March (March 15) 1 3 If Sunday is day 1 then 8 days from Sunday is the next Sunday in inclusive counting. A period of 8 years after which the lunar phase occurs on the same day of the year plus one or two days - used by many ancient Greeks to set dates. See the discussion on lunisolar calendars. Yet another table for computing the date of Easter A council of Christian bishops The Anno Domini system of counting the years did not begin until 6*'’ century. By international treaties 20 The proleptic Gregorian calendar is produced by using it for times before it was introduced in 1582. Washington Academy of Sciences 35 Facilitating Student Autonomy in Project-Based Learning to Foster Interest and Resilience in STEM Education and STEM Careers James A. (Jim) Egenrieder Virginia Tech, National Capital Region Abstract Many students enjoy science in elementary school and middle school, until they experience a setback or disappointment in their performance in secondary STEM courses or science fairs. Educators and others, in both formal and informal settings, can foster students’ continued interest and resiliency in STEM education subjects, majors and careers through student-driven project-based learning. Educators and mentors of students need to be aware of key elements of project-based learning, of realigned roles of students and teachers, and the advantages and distinctions of scientific and engineering design processes. To maximize the benefits of student autonomy in project-based learning, educators and others should also consider strategies and infrastructures that facilitate productive constructivist review and reflection, differentiated learning, confidence in presentation and publication skills, participation in science and engineering competitions, group work, and motivation for independent, lifelong learning. Collaboration among teachers in facilitating student projects can deepen student understanding and expand the context and relevance of curricula. Introduction As THE CONCERN for insufficient numbers of qualified candidates for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) careers grows, science educators, STEM professionals, counselors, parents, coaches, and others can facilitate students’ interest and explorations, creativity, innovation, and entrepreneurship through student-driven project-based learning. This investment in students’ autonomy fosters resilience, or the ability to overcome or recover from setbacks or disappointments, in students’ pursuit of STEM subjects and STEM careers. Traditional approaches to teaching and learning can suppress and smother interest and creativity among many students who do not have resilience or support after early failures or disappointing experiences in STEM subjects. Accordingly, some students dismiss themselves from STEM subjects, majors, and careers based on experienees, and sometimes only a single experience, even before they have fully transitioned from Winter 2010 36 pre-adolescent, concrete-operational thought to the capacity for abstract thinking that allows them to fully appreciate these subject areas. Regular opportunities for authentic student-led inquiry provide opportunities to renew or expand interest in technical explorations and distinctions that foster the resilience, creativity, and curiosity necessary for successful STEM careers, particularly as young people begin to define and refine their identity and self-perceptions. This resilience remains important through high school, college “weed-ouf’ courses, and during job searches or in considering graduate programs, when so many prospective scientists and engineers switch to other academic and career paths. Key Elements of Project-Based Learning Project-based learning has been part of the school curriculum for nearly a century, and typically involves students in project design, problem-solving investigations, or other experiences that give students extended periods of time to work alone, or in teams, without extensive involvement of the teacher. The resulting products or presentations can be the primary means by which teachers assess students’ understanding. Increasingly, project-based learning models include characteristics such as authentic content and assessment, a reduced or less didactic role for the teacher, more cooperative learning, reflective self-assessment, constructivism, developing adult communication skills, community involvement, and cognitive use of technology-based tools (Saveiy and Duffy, 1995). Project-based learning is also based on the constructivist principles of collaboration, personal autonomy, mentoring from older generations, reflection, active engagement in community needs, and personal or professional relevance. In his summary of research in project- based learning, John Thomas (2000) highlights five important criteria of project-based learning: 1. Project-based learning projects are central, not peripheral to the curriculum; 2. Project-based learning projects are focused on questions or problems that drive students to encounter and struggle with the central concepts and principles of a discipline; 3. Projects involve students in a constructivist investigation; 4. Projects are student-driven to some significant degree; and 5. Projects are realistic, not school-like. Project-based learning is often distinguished from the formal, didactic, lecture settings of science classrooms, and also the controlled experiments Washington Academy of Sciences 37 in laboratory settings. However, it would be a mistake to believe that project-based learning should completely replace the efficiency and effectiveness of lectures and discussion in secondary science or engineering classrooms, or the need for understanding of fundamental laboratory procedures. Instead, once students have been trained in the foundations of important concepts, and laboratory techniques and procedures, they can be challenged to apply their newly acquired understandings and skills to new or more complex problems or questions. Student-led Inquiry and the Nature of Science The key elements of project-based learning are consistent with the National Science Education Standards (NSES), which promote an emphasis on guiding students in active and extended inquiry and a focus on student understanding through the use of knowledge, skills, and inquiry processes. The NSES also stress the importance of teachers’ recognition of and response to students’ individual interests, strengths, experiences, and needs (National Research Council, 1996). Similarly, The American Association for the Advancement of Science promotes inquiry through investigation as the tool for scientific literacy in its Project 2061: Benchmarks for Scientific Eiteracy (2009). The Benchmarks for inquiry explicitly address the problems with common laboratory experiments designed by teachers with prescribed procedures that reflect the rigid sequence of steps of a single scientific method. These benchmarks instead promote imagination and inventiveness, collaboration, time for revisions or repetition, and sharing results for criticism. Specifically addressing student initiative and autonomy, the Benchmarks for Inquiry state the following: [Students] should frame the question, design the approach, estimate the time and costs involved, calibrate the instruments, conduct trial runs, write a report, and finally, respond to criticism. Such investigations, whether individual or group, might take weeks or months to conduct. They might happen in and out of school time and be broken up by periods when, for technical reasons, work cannot go forward. But the total time invested will probably be no more than the sum of all those weekly one-period labs that contribute little to student understanding of scientific inquiry. Winter 2010 38 Reinforcing Scientific Methods and Design Processes As students choose and use scientific methods or design processes to explore their own questions or research problems, they expand their understanding of science and engineering, the importance of recognizing confounding variables, and distinguishing correlation from causation. Most approaches to science and engineering begin with identifying a question or problem. From there, scientific methods and design processes follow similar paths to different outcomes (Figure 1). The scientist will develop a hypothesis that leads to a methodology for testing the influence or relationship of a variable or variables on a specific outcome. Alternatively, engineers identify criteria or constraints for solving their problem, and then follow a design-test-redesign process to evaluate a specific model or prototype that may serve as a solution. Washington Academy of Sciences 39 In both science and engineering and certainly in science education and engineering education, reporting or sharing findings is an important step. Professionals rely on journal publications, poster sessions, and presentations to report and share, and these are mimicked in science and engineering fairs. Formal educators (teachers) and informal educators (parents, camp counselors, mentors, neighbors, and others) might consider other tools for sharing, as discussed later. Teachers can reinforce skills necessary for larger research and design projects with projects of shorter duration throughout the year. These shorter projects of one to two weeks can strengthen skills in modeling and simulation, literature reviews, or developing a rationale for a larger study based on an identified community need. Strategies for Supporting Students’ Selection of Research Problems or Questions Whether project-based learning is integrated throughout the curricula, or only quarterly or each semester, teachers must facilitate the autonomy of students in selecting, developing, and exploring their ideas. As the teacher transfers leadership to the students, the learning environment becomes more authentic, and the relevance and connections of the coursework to the students’ interests and experiences is obvious. However, this creates the biggest challenges, particularly in standards- based environments where learning is measured by end-of course exams, and where teachers are accountable for student results. The teacher or mentor must continuously prompt students to tie their explorations and discoveries to the curricula, and to identify possible generalizations. In selecting a topic, a teacher might provide some constraints for students to identify a specific topic aligned within the pace of their ongoing curriculum. For example, units within a biology course well suited for projects include biochemistry, metabolism, genetics, history of life or evolution, phytogeny and taxonomy, anatomy and physiology, and ecology. Within a unit, the teacher might provide a suggested approach, such as “Develop a model for demonstrating ,” or “Demonstrate a method for measuring ” or “Identify and evaluate strategies for preventing .” A teacher could provide a short timeline (two days or a weekend) for students to pick their topic, perhaps using a web-based form or a traditional sign-up sheet for others to see. After that, a teacher might provide a list of “interesting topics” to help those who did not yet identify their own. If these topics are authentic interests of the teacher. Winter 2010 40 they create yet another bridge between the student and the teacher and curricula, and often students who already selected a topic may ask to switch. After another short period (perhaps only one day), the teacher can ask any remaining undecided students to pick from a list of relevant topics. This is an important time for the teacher to transition into the role of facilitator. Throughout the selection period, the teacher can help to narrow or refine topics, suggest background research, community resources or professional mentors, or other tools, tips, or templates. Identifying a research question within a topic is an important skill for all students, and yet another opportunity for individualizing a project. Teachers must also remain flexible, allowing for minor changes, major redirections or reorientations, or wholesale changes to topics or team participation, and to keep the students’ interest and path to inquiry as a priority. Students use these moments of autonomy to define their identity, establish their uniqueness, and connect with like-minded others. Accordingly, many see these projects as a foundation or official trial or affirmation of a career interest. It is important for teachers as facilitators to avoid saying “no” or to give any hint of negativity, except when there is a concern for safety or violation of privacy {e.g. students desiring to study teen drug use or sexuality among their peers). Otherwise, flexibility and facilitation should be the teacher’s mantra, and those who prioritize student autonomy often report that the scope of topics and products is often well beyond what they would have prescribed, or even imagined. Strategies for Differentiation Individualizing instruction and learning provides opportunities for more students to excel, and these successful experiences increase the possibility that connections to technical disciplines will become part of a student’s personal and professional identity and lifelong learning. Teachers and others can provide differentiation in project-based learning through groupwork, tiered assignments, scaffolding, choice, and opportunities for expansion from core ideas and enduring understandings (Schlemmer and Schlemmer, 2008). Maximizing choice and interdisciplinary or cross-disciplinary connections requires additional mentoring, but provides student-derived context and relevance. Schedules, planning templates, intermediate products, and evaluation rubrics provide students with tools for formative self-assessment and checkpoints for communicating with teachers and mentors. Teachers might schedule Washington Academy of Sciences 41 regular one-minute interviews, where students know they’ll have the teaeher’s undivided attention to share concerns or solicit advice. Group Work Some teachers avoid group work or group projects because of the difficulty in measuring individual contributions to the groups’ processes or outcomes. Recognizing that project-based learning is multi-faceted, multi- disciplinary, and engages individuals at multiple levels of consciousness, the teacher can rely on group dynamics, peer coaching and mentoring, and even peer evaluation to supplant the need for artificial or unnecessary accountability structures. Instinctive group leaders can benefit greatly, even when “carrying” partners, through the deeper understanding they’ll derive from teaching or guiding their peers. A participant that might be considered a cipher may not only be learning from the energy and enthusiasm of more active peers, but may also be playing a role in validating the team’s direction when seemingly more-engaged peers present their rationale for routine decisions. Lab tables in many science classrooms are set to provide seating for four, but the roles and contributions of individual participants are enhanced in smaller groups, and many practitioners of project-based learning will suggest teams of one, two, or maybe three. For groups of three or four, teachers can suggest that the products of larger groups should reflect the number of group members, and can thereby comfortably assign an overall grade to the groups’ products rather than individual grades to each participant. Alternatively, teachers can guide larger groups in dividing projects into distinct but complementary roles. In an example from an AP Biology class, a group of three students designed a system for long-term monitoring and analysis of a standard blood chemistry panel and complete blood count (CBC). They shared the work of researching and explaining each blood test, but divided the rest of the work. One student determined the best way to group the more than 30 tests and identified additional blood tests that may be monitored, one determined which units were used for each test and the high and low ranges of “normal”, and the third student created and formatted the spreadsheet for data collection and the creation of a template, which is now available online for others. Winter 2010 42 Monitoring and Maintaining Students’ Momentum All students, whether in middle school or graduate school, benefit from supportive monitoring. Timelines with interim products reduce the impacts of normal procrastination and also provide teachers with opportunities to help guide research, overcome obstacles, or address troubles in group dynamics. Online collaboration tools allow for teachers to monitor progress or provide comments or links to resources informally, and teachers can do this at any hour of the day. Teachers who witness the project’s development also see how the final products are developed, reducing the occasion for accidental or desperate plagiarism. Online monitoring can also function as formative assessment that reduces the time required for reviewing and commenting on final products. Sharing the Products of Students’ Projects In traditional learning environments, the products of student work have a very small audience: the teacher. And with as many as 120 or more papers, lab reports, or other work products to review, a typical teacher would need 20 hours or more per assignment, even if budgeting only 10 minutes per student for review and comments. However, if a teacher requires that the products of projects should have utility beyond the student, and requires sharing or even publication, there are many benefits. Most importantly sharing and peer review is consistent with professional scientific and engineering practices, and if done regularly in classroom environments, sharing or presenting these products becomes more comfortable and adds rigor authentically. Knowing there will be a wider audience, students are likely to be more creative in choosing a topic or methodology, and also more likely to be more rigorous in their own self-evaluation. Second, other students can benefit from their work, whether experienced through a classroom presentation or as a newly discovered online resource. Third, if published online, students can expand or refine their products with new learning, and benefit from comments provided by others. Student volunteers can learn from categorizing or cataloguing their peers’ work for publication. If products are presented in a classroom setting, the teacher can provide praise and constructive criticism that may benefit all students’ understanding, while significantly reducing the time necessary for grading the product later. Classroom presentations limited to just three minutes can provide an abstract or overview that is enough to capture the interest of Washington Academy of Sciences 43 engaged listeners, and short enough to build confidence in students’ presentation skills without using precious classroom time. Teachers can protect student privacy by publishing student work on a protected intranet, or publishing more publicly without last names, or without any names at all. Using increasingly available and powerful online collaboration tools, teachers can also offer suggestions for refinements, establishing a body of work that all can be proud of Revisiting and Revising Projects Traditional curricula are typically progressively linear; a concept or topic is introduced and explored, perhaps with assignments and formative assessments (quizzes) leading to a summative assessment (test), and then on to the next concept. Projects, particularly those with products made available to others, allow for opportunities, and motivation to revisit past work and critique it, revise it, enhance it, or replace it. Redesign is an important part of design processes and can also be part of scientific processes in the classroom lab (Figure 1). Science and Engineering Fairs and Festivals Science and engineering fairs and festivals remain an important part of introducing, developing, and affirming young scientists. Unfortunately, the necessary and burdensome paperwork, and the unsatisfying outcomes for those who are not winners may discourage or dissuade more potential young scientists than are validated. However, science fair administrators partnering with non-profit organizations, trade groups, or community associations can greatly expand the number and scope of available honors awarded. Community participation has many additional benefits that further engage students, teachers, the groups’ representatives, and parents in the curricula (Egenrieder, 2007). Science and engineering fair judges often have little or no connection to secondary education, and should be trained to offer encouragement and coaching to students while reviewing their posters and demonstrations. Judges can be encouraged to bring business cards to help teachers and students expand their work or additional resources or opportunities. Some administrators of fairs and festivals for younger students {i.e., middle school) also provide options for students to be judged by teachers only, and students thereby expect a more constructive, formative experience. Winter 2010 44 In 2011, Google launched www.google.com/sciencefair, a new, online approach to science fairs focusing on creativity and innovation, and modem approaches to sharing. Relevance and Rigor When project-based learning is student-driven, relevance is an inherent part of the learning experience. As the teacher functions in the less traditional facilitator and learner roles, they create a new dimension in the teacher-student relationship. The student perceives the teacher as an adult making an investment in the student’s unique interests or explorations, and this new dimension in peer relationships leads to a change in the student’s perceptions of teachers and themselves. This is tme, of course, with any mentor or facilitator, including parents. Teachers (and science fair judges) are often concerned about parents’ roles in projects, and it may be important for teachers to help parents recognize that excess involvement may lead students to believe they would have been unsuccessful without a parent’s involvement. We must use our relationships with students to help them develop their own rigor in the context of their own interests. Project Management with Technology Online tools for communication, collaboration, publishing, scheduling, monitoring or tracking, and archiving significantly enhance the role of a project-based learning teacher or mentor (Boss and Krauss, 2007). Communications can be synchronous or asynchronous, and teams and their mentors can rely upon online document and resource storage independent of their locations (cloud computing) that facilitate collaboration. In addition to providing easy, paperless, categorized, and searchable access to helpful resources, teachers can also use technology for formal and informal assessments, collecting and organizing student products, and inexpensive (free) publishing. Blogs, wikis, and other collaborative tools allow controlled and secure collaborations among teachers in sharing and reviewing curriculum objectives, student progress and student projects; and this cooperation among teachers also expands the context of students’ learning experiences. Washington Academy of Sciences 45 Summary Throughout their academic careers, students assess and reassess their aptitude for specific subjects, and their options for post-secondary studies and careers. Adults can foster students’ continued interest and resiliency through project-based learning by promoting student autonomy, alignments with scientific and engineering design processes, and strategies for group work, reflection, effective presentations and publications, and the effective use of technology. As the resilient students refine their interests and expand their confidence as scientists and engineers, they are tree to recognize and explore their own ideas, innovations and creative solutions to real problems. Meanwhile, they are deepening their understanding of their teachers’ curricula and developing a context for lifelong learning. And when they encounter an obstacle, setback, or disappointment, they will be more likely to regroup, refocus, and renew their approach rather than switch majors or careers. References American Association for the Advancement of Science (2009). Project 2061 : Benchmarks for Science. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. Retrieved from http;//vmw.project206 1 .org/publications/bsl/online/index.php?chapter= 1 on January 7, 2011. Boss, S. and Krauss, J. (2007). Reinventing Project-Based Learning: Your Field Guide to Real-World Projects in the Digital Age. Washington, D.C.: International Society for Technology in Education. Egenrieder, J. (2007). Community-focused, project-based learning to promote diversity in STEM. Journal of Virginia Science Education. Retrieved from http://www.vast.org/content/File/vln2/7-fmal.pdf on February 4, 201 1. National Research Council (1996). National Science Education Standards. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Retrieved from http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php7record Jd=4962 on January 7, 201 1 . Savery, J., & Duffy, T. (1995). Problem based learning: An instructional model and its constructivist framework. Educational Technology, 35, 31-38. Schlemmer, P. and Schlemmer, D. (2008). Teaching Beyond the Test. Minneapolis: Free Spirit Publishing. Thomas, J. (2000). A Review of Research on Project-based Learning. Autodesk Foundation. Retrieved January 12,2011 from http://www.bobpearlman.org/BestPractices/PBL_Research.pdf Winter 2010 This page intentionally left blank Washington Academy of Sciences 47 WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCE MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 2010 M=Member; F=Fellow; LF=Life Fellow; LM=Life Member; EM=Emeritus Member; EF=Emeritus Fellow ABDULNUR, SUHEIL F. 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