630.7 I£6b no. 691 cop. 8 r UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATKJ The Relationship Between CENTRAL MARKET EGG REPORTS and PRODUCER PRICES in Selected North Central States <*fcJS- NORTH CENTRAL REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 _ '{cultural Experiment Stations ol Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture cooperating. This publication is a summary report of the research work in egg pricing. Some individual states involved in the research as well as the Agricultural Marketing Service of the United States Department of Agriculture have published additional reports on egg pricing which should be of interest to the reader: 1. Ruttan, V. W. and Laird, W. F., The Pricing of Indiana Eggs at Country and Terminal Markets, Indiana Station Bulletin 648, Pur- due University, Agricultural Experiment Station, Lafayette, Indi- ana, 1957. 2. Luckham, W. R., Cray, R. E. and Clayton, P. C, The Adequacy of Price Quotations at Ohio Terminal Markets in Reflecting True Mar- ket Conditions, Ohio Research Circular 63, Ohio Agricultural Ex- periment Station, Wooster, Ohio, 1959. 3. Pritchard, N. T. and Hester, O. C., Pricing Eggs at Wholesale in Chicago and St. Louis, USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, Marketing Research Report No. 173. 4. Gerald, J. O. and Pritchard, N. T., Pricing Eggs at Wholesale in New York City, USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, Marketing Research Report No. 210. The research on which this report is based was undertaken as part of the North Central Regional Poultry Marketing Project NCM-14. Funds for this project were made available through the Research and Marketing Act of 1946. Representatives from the following states and federal agencies par- ticipated in this study. State Agricultural Experiment Station Representatives J. R. Roush Illinois R. L. Kohls Indiana G. D. Ladd Iowa J. W. Koudele Kansas H. E. Larzelere Michigan Darrell F. Fienup Minnesota J. D. Miller, L. D. Bender, L. A. Voss Missouri Ernest Feder Nebraska F. R. Taylor North Dakota R. E. Cray, P. C. Clayton Ohio William Kohlmeyer South Dakota W. P. Mortenson Wisconsin U. S. Department of Agriculture Representative John J. Scanlan Farmer Cooperative Service Administrative Adviser H. J. Sloan Minnesota CONTENTS SCOPE AND METHOD OF STUDY 7 RECEIPT AND USE OF CENTRAL MARKET PRICE REPORTS 10 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCER PRICES AND CHICAGO QUOTATIONS 13 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCER EGG PRICES AND PRICES REPORTED FROM SEVEN CENTRAL MARKETS 23 SHORT-TIME PRICE MOVEMENTS AT COUNTRY POINTS AND CENTRAL MARKETS 40 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 46 APPENDIX TABLES . .50 Urbana, Illinois, February, 1963 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CENTRAL MARKET EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES IN SELECTED NORTH CENTRAL STATES1 THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION IS THE MAJOR SURPLUS EGG-PRODUCING area in the United States. It produces an annual surplus of about 10.5 billion eggs. Except for those areas incorporating or adjacent to large population centers such as Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis, most parts of the region are dependent upon outside consuming markets for a large portion of their egg production. Prior to 1940, the typical movement of surplus eggs was through the larger central markets. Eggs not consumed by the local population were assembled at country points and shipped to wholesale dealers in these markets. Jobbers, dealers, chain stores, and dairies, bargaining with the wholesalers, procured a sufficient quantity of these eggs to supply the needs of the population center associated with the market. The remainder of the eggs were moved into market channels in the east, south, and west. Prices established through the supply-and-demand forces at work within the central market provided a basis for establishing paying prices at country points servicing the market. Since most country dealers were selling to wholesalers in the central markets, the prices which they paid for eggs could not vary widely from the wholesale buying price at the market. If the country buyers' paying prices were too high relative to the central market price, they chanced a loss when they sold the eggs. If their paying prices were too low, local competitors would buy the producers' eggs and ship them to the central market. Dealers at country points reportedly paid producers the wholesale buying price at the central market less a charge to cover transportation to the market and a margin to cover their costs and services. Since 1940 major changes have occurred in the marketing system for eggs produced in the North Central Region. Because of an in- creased demand for higher quality eggs, coupled with increased process- ing costs at the central markets, many large chain stores and dairies have bypassed the central wholesale markets and established their own country buying stations. They purchase eggs directly from pro- 1 J. R. Roush, of the University of Illinois, was primarily responsible for analyzing the data and preparing this report. R. L. Kohls and V, W. Ruttan of Purdue University; R. E. Cray and P. C. Clayton of Ohio State University; and J. D. Miller and L. A. Voss of the University of Missouri were responsible for collecting the data in their respective states and provided many helpful suggestions which greatly improved the manuscript. ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 Shell egg receipts in Chicago that originated in the North Central Region, compared with egg production in the region, during the years 1940-1957. The data on the Chicago egg receipts were compiled by the Dairy and Poultry Market News Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the data on egg production in the North Central Region by the Bureau of Agricultural Eco- nomics and Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. (Fig. 1) ducers in the surrounding area and obtain supplementary supplies from country assemblers. After processing, these eggs bypass the central wholesale markets and move directly into retail channels. Many smaller retail organizations have also bypassed the central wholesale markets and buy eggs that have been processed by dealers at country points. Market integration has occurred at more than the state or regional level. Improved transportation facilities, especially improved highways and modern refrigerated trucks, have allowed distant firms to buy eggs directly from surplus production areas. Many eastern egg buyers who previously supplemented their local supply of eggs with pur- chases from midwestern central markets now bypass these markets to obtain supplementary supplies directly from country points in the major surplus areas. This has decreased the volume of eggs that move from the surplus production areas, through the central markets, to destinations in the deficit areas of the country. Some indication of the effect of market integration on the volume of central market egg receipts is presented in Fig. 1. Chicago is the major central market for eggs produced in the North Central Region. From the period 1940-44 to the period 1953-57, egg production in the region increased 19 percent, while reported Chicago receipts from the region decreased 29 percent. These data do not give the complete 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 7 picture of the decline of the Chicago wholesale egg market. Many of the eggs reported as receipts in Chicago have moved through inte- grated marketing systems. They have bypassed the Chicago wholesale market and have not entered directly into the wholesale price-making forces operating in Chicago. The recognition of the decline of the central wholesale egg mar- kets has created concern regarding the existing pricing system for eggs. Egg prices established in the central markets are widely dis- seminated throughout the egg industry. The industry is disturbed because the use of these price reports in pricing eggs at various levels in the marketing channels may be altering prices from those which should prevail under existing supply-and-demand conditions. Par- ticular concern has been raised regarding prices paid producers. The anxiety stems from the idea that a limited number of traders dealing in a small volume of eggs in our major central markets "set" the prices which producers receive for eggs. The concern of the industry regarding the pricing of eggs is based on two assumptions: 1. Egg prices reported from central markets do not accurately reflect existing supply and demand conditions for eggs at country points. 2. Prices at which eggs are bought and sold at country points are closely tied to prices reported from the central markets. If prices paid for eggs at country points are not closely tied to prices reported from the central markets, the concern about the effect of reduced egg volume on prices established and reported from central markets can be alleviated. This report deals with the relationship be- tween prices reported in central markets and prices paid producers for eggs in selected North Central states. SCOPE AND METHOD OF STUDY Sixty-nine country dealers cooperated in providing information on pricing eggs at country points in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. Data were obtained from 22 dealers in three sections of Illinois. One group of eight dealers was located in the southwest quarter of the state, within 55 miles of the St. Louis market. For purposes of dis- cussion, this area will be referred to as southern Illinois (Fig. 2). A second group of five dealers was located in the southeast quarter of the state, within 40 miles of Effingham. This area will be referred to as central Illinois. The third group of nine dealers was located in the ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691 ; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, The location of dealers who supplied information for this study. (Fig. 2) northeast quarter of the state, within 60 miles of Pontiac. This area will be referred to as northern Illinois. Enumerators in Indiana selected a total of 20 dealers located in three scattered counties in the state. Eight of these dealers were located in a county in northern Indiana, six in a county in central Indiana, and six in a county in southern Indiana (Fig. 2). Enumerators in Missouri chose a total of 23 dealers widely scat- tered throughout the state. After the data were collected, the dealers were divided into three groups primarily on the basis of the markets which they said they looked to for pricing information. Seven of them were located in northern Missouri, north of a line extending from Platte City on the west, to Monticello on the east. The dealers south of this line were divided into two groups; seven were located east of Columbia, while nine were located west of Columbia (Fig. 2). Enumerators in Ohio obtained data from four market agencies scattered throughout the state. These were large cooperative organi- zations whose pricing practices were believed to have a strong influ- ence on prices paid in their area. Each market was located in a different quarter of the state. Use of Columbus as a dividing point made it possible to compare the two firms in the east with the two firms in the west. It was also possible to compare the two firms south of Columbus with the two firms north of this city. The volume of eggs handled by the cooperating dealers varied 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 9 Table 1. — Distribution of Cooperating Dealers According to Average Weekly Egg Purchases During the Period of Study, by States, 1955 Weekly cases of eggs Number of dealers* Illinois Indiana Missouri Ohio Total 0- 99.. 4 6 6 0 1 1 1 1 1 17 115 14 5 1 1 1 1 0 0 23 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 4 1,431 24 14 3 7 4 5 6 2 65 147 100- 199 3 200- 299 2 300- 399 5 400- 499 2 500- 999 3 1000-1999 2 2000 and over. . . . 0 Total 21 Median volume. . . 347 * Volume data were not obtained from 4 dealers. within the states as well as between states (Table 1). The largest dealers were located in Ohio where the median dealer purchased an average weekly volume of 1,431 cases during the period of study. The smallest dealers were located in Missouri where the median dealer pur- chased 73 cases per week. General information was obtained from the dealers about their business and the services they offered. They were asked about their sources of pricing information and how they used this information in establishing prices paid to producers. In addition, data were collected on the daily prices that the cooperating dealers paid to producers for various grades of eggs for three two-week periods during 1955. These periods were April 18 through 30, a period when egg production and quality are normally high and prices are seasonally low; July 25 through August 6, a period of normally declining production, rising prices, and relatively low quality; and October 24 through November 5, a period of normally increasing production, falling prices, and relatively high quality. To make the pricing data more comparable between dealers, the daily prices paid for various grades of eggs were adjusted so that the price represented mixed-colored eggs delivered to the buyer's place of business in cases furnished by the buyer. For those dealers who purchased Extra Large and Jumbo eggs in addition to Large, the weighted average price for the three grades was used as the Large price. This made these data more comparable with the data for those firms that did not differentiate between Jumbo, Extra Large, and Large eggs but bought them all as Large. 10 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, Daily egg prices reported in central markets were obtained from various secondary sources. Prices reported by private agencies were used for the Chicago, New York, and St. Louis markets. Prices re- ported by the Market News Service of the U. S. Department of Agri- culture were used for the Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Pitts- burgh markets. A detailed description of the reports that were used is presented in Appendix Tables 1 and 2. RECEIPT AND USE OF CENTRAL MARKET PRICE REPORTS The prices at which various grades of eggs are bought and sold in the important central markets are reported by various informa- tion media. The federal Market News Service releases a daily report of egg prices and related data for each of the markets where its service is available. These mimeographed reports are mailed free of charge to individuals or firms requesting them. Private re- porting agencies located in some of the central markets mail daily market reports to firms and individuals on a subscription basis. Many newspapers and radio and television stations located in the central markets and at country points serving the central markets present egg market information obtained from federal or private reporting agencies. Many of the daily reports issued by the federal Market News offices contain egg supply and pricing information not only for the market in which the office is located, but for other important egg mar- kets as well. For example, individuals or firms obtaining the Daily Egg Report from the Chicago office of the federal Market News Service receive a summary of egg prices and market conditions in St. Louis, New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Columbus as well as the Chicago market. Prices are also reported for several country points. The Chicago office receives this information daily by leased wire from its offices in other markets. Information on egg price conditions in the major central markets is readily available, and the majority of country egg buyers obtain pricing information from one or more of the central markets. The fact that these dealers take time to listen to radio market reports, pay for private reports, or place their names on the mailing list to receive the federal reports indicates that they find the reports of value in establishing buying and selling prices for eggs. 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 11 Central markets from which dealers obtained pricing information Almost 60 percent of the cooperating dealers in the four states reported obtaining egg pricing information from the Chicago market. Except for Ohio, more firms in each state obtained pricing informa- tion from Chicago than from any other single market (Table 2). The Ohio firms were primarily interested in New York pricing information. Only firms in Illinois and Missouri regularly obtained egg market information frofn St. Louis. The lack of interest in St. Louis prices in Indiana and Ohio undoubtedly is due to the small proportion of the total receipts — less than one-tenth of one percent — that these two states jointly supply to this market. Missouri and Illinois provide more than three- fourths of the St. Louis egg supply. Illinois firms that reported receiving St. Louis market information were all located in the southern part of the state, while most of the Missouri firms receiving St. Louis pricing information were located in eastern Missouri. Many firms in western Missouri obtained price reports from Kansas City and Springfield, Missouri. In Table 2, the number of dealers reporting that they obtained information from various markets is shown to be greater than the number of cooperating firms. This difference indicates that some of the firms were obtaining market information from more than one central market. Some dealers said they studied conditions in several markets in evaluating egg price trends. Price information media Approximately 57 percent of the cooperating dealers in the four states obtained market information by radio. Except in Missouri, Table 2. — Number of Dealers Obtaining Egg-Pricing Information From Various Central Markets, by States, 1955 Number of dealers Illinois Indiana Missouri Ohio Total Chicago . 17 14 9 1 41 New York 5 7 2 3 17 St. Louis 10 0 7 0 17 Detroit 0 1 0 0 1 Cleveland 0 0 0 1 1 Cincinnati 0 1 0 1 2 Pittsburgh 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 1 10 0 11 Dealers reporting* 22 20 23 4 69 a Some dealers received information from more than one central market. 12 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, Table 3. — Media by Which Dealers Obtained Egg-Pricing Information, by States, 1955 State Number of dealers using each medium Radio Tele- phone News- paper Mailed reports Tele- graph Other dealers Dealers reporting* Illinois . . . 15 7 13 6 3 29 3 6 16 1 26 5 5 7 3 20 0 1 1 0 2 2 11 1 0 14 22 20 23 4 69 Indiana 15 Missouri 6 Ohio 3 Total 39 • Some dealers received information from more than one medium. no medium was used more than radio (Table 3). In Missouri news- papers were by far the most important source of market information. More than half of the Missouri firms that looked to newspapers as a source of pricing information were located in the Kansas City area and obtained Kansas City market prices from the Kansas City paper. More than half of the Indiana dealers interviewed reported ob- taining pricing information from other dealers. In some cases they obtained information from their market outlets on prices existing in the market. In others they determined what other buyers in their own local area were paying producers for eggs. Again in Table 3 the total of firms obtaining information through various media exceeds the number of firms contacted. Many of the firms were relying on more than one medium for pricing information. For example, a dealer might rely on radio to obtain timely information on existing prices in the central markets, but he might also obtain a published report from the market. Although not as timely, the pub- lished report provides more detailed information and can also be filed for future reference. A dealer may also get market information over the telephone while filling orders with a wholesaler at a central market. Yet he may still rely on the radio or mail reports to obtain more exact information on prices paid for various grades of eggs at the central market. Dealers' reported use of price reports When egg pricing was discussed with the cooperating dealers, an attempt was made to determine the importance of central market price reports in establishing prices paid to producers. Only 16 percent of the cooperating dealers in the four states reported that their prices paid to producers were associated in a fixed manner with definite reports originating in a central market (Table 4). However, some of these 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 13 Table 4. — Dealers' Reported Use of Central Market Price Reports in Establishing Prices Paid to Producers, by States, 1955 Number of dealers Nature of use Illinois Indiana Missouri Ohio Total Applied fixed differential to market report 6 1 4 0 11 Applied varying differential to market report 16 0 6 0 22 Followed market report in only a general way 0 11 6 1 18 Made little use of market report. . . . Total 0 22 8 20 7 23 3 4 18 69 same dealers obtained price reports not only from the designated central market but from other markets as well. About one-fourth of the cooperating dealers in the four states indicated that they followed central market prices in only a general way in establishing prices paid to producers. Most of these firms mentioned competition or prices paid by their outlets as factors altering the relationship between the prices they paid producers and central market price reports. An additional 26 percent of the dealers contacted in the study reported making very little use of central market price reports in establishing producer prices. Most of these dealers said that the price which they paid producers was a derived price, being based on the price paid by another firm. The other firm was usually the outlet to which they sold eggs. The country dealers deducted costs from selling price in arriving at prices paid producers. Two Indiana dealers re- ported that their prices paid to producers depended wholly on local competition for eggs. Even though these firms reported little use of central market price reports, the majority did receive price reports from at least one central market. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCER PRICES AND CHICAGO QUOTATIONS In analyzing the relationships between prices paid to producers and prices reported in any central market, the author determined the aver- age daily price paid by each dealer, during each two-week period, for each of several grades of eggs. This price could be compared with the average daily price reported in any central market for the com- parable grade of eggs during the same period. Or, the average rela- 14 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 \February, tionship of the producer price to any central market price report could be determined for a group of dealers. Since more dealers in the study reported receiving Chicago price reports than those from any other market, the relationship between producer prices and Chicago prices was analyzed. The quotations of a private reporter, which are based largely on spot trading on the Chi- cago Mercantile Exchange, were used as the Chicago prices. These prices are widely disseminated by radio and newspaper and are ac- cepted and used by most egg dealers as the Chicago market prices. This analysis was made for A Large, A Medium, and current receipt eggs. Producer to Chicago price relationships were compared between states, between periods, and between grades of eggs. On more limited data, it was also possible to make some comparisons between areas within a state. Producer prices for eggs relative to the Chicago quotations varied widely among dealers (Table 5). Except in Ohio, the majority of dealers in each state paid producers less than the appropriate Chicago quotations for all grades of eggs. Two-thirds of the observations in Ohio for both A Large and A Medium eggs found the dealer price to producers above the appropriate Chicago quotations. The next highest proportion occurred for current receipt eggs in Indiana, where, on about one-fourth of the observations, dealers were paying producers more than the Chicago quotation for current receipt eggs. Table 5 shows that the relationship between prices paid producers and Chicago quotations varied between states as well as between grades of eggs. A more complete analysis shows that the relationship also varied between periods and between areas within a state. A Large eggs Several dealers contacted in the study were not buying eggs from producers on a graded basis during each enumeration period. Some were buying on a current receipt basis during the spring and shifting to a graded basis during the summer or fall. In the analysis of rela- tionships between the producer price of A Large eggs and the Chicago quotation for the comparable grade, only those dealers were used who bought A Large eggs from producers during each enumeration period. Variation between states. Ohio was the only state in which dealers' prices to producers for A Large eggs averaged above the appropriate Chicago quotation during the six weeks studied (Table 6). The Ohio firms paid producers the highest price for A Large eggs during each enumeration period and averaged almost three cents a dozen above Chicago during the six-week period. At the other 1963} CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 15 •a i spH OOOOOOOCS -H «H rj< OCS ~+ O^O OOOOO C< «3^ U ^— lOOO"— i es »- 1 «— i OCSO "ifOOOOOOOOOO fS ^H *~^ +•> (fl C -M tn U} O\ C i * & NO 5 Q. .2 g u'S •H *— i CS ^-H ^— t o O O *"•* O ^^ O CS CS CO *O fO *~< CS CS O O O ^ *• 3 0 l^ CN 0 u£i L NO 1 E d 2 1 1 o ^ s "S ^ OOOOOO'— 'O O»-'»-' CNf "Sj ~ S ** •d T^< r»5 u ^+ + + + + + + S.OOOOOOOO CN{ »-t o c>*J**i«o^<«'><5**odoC§ +++ 1 M M 1 1 1 1 1 * OOO OOOOOOOOOOO --g Sy CO 32 I (U «^ tn O JS Oj 0 H C— i_ U.W _- ^OOOOOOO O O O O .S.EC— — .cpp-~pdcp u o> bflboe bobobobflbobobobobo CPg CPPCCPCCP st discount G 2st premium or s Number of Per dealers 1 1 MB>>^3j2'G'Oj2^2 1 rt U U. tT; tfi "^ *^ j£ Q "M t^ ^ ^ "o lc ^ - f— 1 — -p* "]_, ppP--.p1 ' 5 m 25 _ - 25 1 20 _ OCTOBER 24 TO NOVEMBER 5 _ 20 T> 2 15 - - 15 m 10 P n - -\ I ' l r-J H / \ ^ - 10 in i i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i i I I I J^ Q 4- * + *• + QD^-^.-Orsj^OQD bbboo^^^i-u. S33333333S ii i i **«•* — jNP1?*' — ro * oopoo £ m i po g P N ^ 2 p» PRICE CHANGE (CENTS PER DOZEN) Price changes made by country dealers and central market price reports over three two-week periods during 1955. Bars indicate the number of dealers in combined states and lines the number of central market price reports. (Fig. 7) treated in the same manner. In most instances, a distinct modal (most typical) price movement resulted for both country dealers and central market price reports (Fig. 7). Furthermore, the modal price change was the same at country points as in central markets. Over each of the two-week periods, prices paid to producers tended to move in the same direction and by approximately equal amounts as prices reported in the central markets. Also, the more uniform the price changes occurring among the central market price reports over the two-week period, the more uni- form the price changes occurring at country points. For example, for A Medium eggs during the fall, 10 of the 13 central market price reports (77 percent) showed a price movement of zero to minus 1.9 cents a dozen over the two-week period. During the same period, 26 of the 42 country dealers (62 percent) showed the same price move- 42 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, ment. In contrast, price movements of A Large eggs were less uni- form among central markets during the summer. Seven of the 13 reports (54 percent) showed the most typical price movement, an increase of 4.1 to 6.0 cents a dozen. During the same period, 16 of the 32 country dealers (50 percent) showed the same price increase. Less uniformity in price movements among central markets resulted in less uniformity among country dealers. What happens to egg price movements at country points when price movements vary widely among central markets was evidenced in A Medium eggs during the two-week summer period. There was no one predominant movement in the central markets (Fig. 7). On indi- vidual reports, changes ranged from an increase of one-half cent to 8 cents. These diverse movements in the central markets caused a similarly diverse movement at country points (Fig. 7). Changes made by individual country dealers ranged from a decrease of 4 cents to an increase of 10 cents. It was possible that the price change made by a country dealer over a two-week period may have been influenced not only by price changes in the central markets, but also by the price he paid at the beginning of the period relative to prices paid by surrounding dealers. To determine this effect, if any, the dealers were divided into two groups according to whether they paid above or below the average of all cooperating dealers in the state on the first day of the two-week period. Average price changes made by the two groups over the two- week periods were compared. The analysis was made for A Large eggs for each two-week period (Table 15). On a declining market, the average decrease was greater for dealers paying above-average prices on the first day than for dealers paying below-average prices. On a rising market, the average increase was less for dealers paying above- average prices on the first day than for those paying below-average prices. Some of the variation in price changes among dealers over the two-week period can be traced to their relative price position at the beginning of the period. As indicated in Fig. 7, egg prices did not change by equal amounts in all central markets during each two-week period. The changes were so nearly equal on many reports that it was impossible to associate those in any state with those in any individual central market report. However, comparisons of average price changes for A Large eggs in each state and on each central market price report indicate that certain reports may have influenced country dealers in one state more than in another. During the two-week spring period, the decline in the Ohio price 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 43 Table 15. — Comparison of Price Changes Made Over Two- Week Periods by Dealers Paying Above and Below State Average Prices on the First Day of the Period, A Large Eggs for Combined States, 1955 Dealers paying above state average Dealers paying below state average Period Number Av. price change (cents per dozen) Number Av. price change (cents per dozen) April 18-April 30 , 14 -3.1 +4.4 -1.4 12 16 18 -1.6 +5.9 0 July 25-August 6 16 October 24— November 5 27 Table 16. — Price Changes Made for A Large Eggs by Country Dealers and Central Market Price Reports Over Three Two-Week Periods, by States, 1955 April 18 to April 30 July 25 to August 6 October 24 to November 5 Central market price report* and country dealers P change. Central market price report* and country dealers [ change. Central market price report* and country dealers plrlEn Cleveland consumer. . . Cincinnati consumer. . . 0.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.8 -3.9 -4.0 -4.3 -6.0 New York nearby. . Detroit consumer. . . Ohio dealers +8.5 +8.0 + 7.3 +6.0 + 5.3 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0 + 4.9 + 4.8 +4.8 + 4.5 +4.5 + 4.0 + 3.5 + 3.0 + 2.5 St. Louis wholesale . St. Louis consumer. Cleveland consumer. Cincinnati consumer Pittsburgh consumer + 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.8 Illinois dealers Cleveland consumer . Detroit wholesale. . . St. Louis wholesale. . Pittsburgh wholesale . Pittsburgh consumer . Illinois dealers Indiana dealers New York midwestern St. Louis consumer .... St. Louis wholesale .... Cincinnati wholesale . . . Missouri dealers Ohio dealers Indiana dealers Cincinnati wholesale . . . Cleveland wholesale . . Pittsburgh wholesale . Detroit wholesale .... Illinois dealers Chicago Pittsburgh wholesale . . Pittsburgh consumer. . Detroit consumer Ohio dealers Detroit wholesale Cleveland wholesale . . . New York nearby Cleveland wholesale. . . Missouri dealers Cincinnati wholesale . . New York midwestern Cincinnati consumer . . St. Louis consumer . . . New York nearby. . . . New York midwestern Detroit consumer • For a more detailed description of central market prices with which producer prices were com- pared, see Appendix Table 1. of A Large eggs averaged almost 4 cents a dozen, while declines in the other states averaged 3 cents or less (Table 16). Ohio dealers may have been more strongly influenced than others by the relatively large declines on the New York nearby, Detroit, and one of the Cleveland price reports. During the summer period, Ohio producer prices in- creased more than 7 cents a dozen, while average increases in other states were less than 5 cents (Table 16). Again, the Ohio price increase was more comparable with increases in the New York nearby, Detroit, and one of the Cleveland price reports than increases occurring in other markets. However, during the fall period, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri prices changed very little, while the New York nearby and Detroit prices showed sizable declines. 44 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, PRICE MOVEMENT (CENTS PER DOZEN) APRIL 18 TO APRIL 30 0 -I -2 -3 +5 +4 +3 +2 -I +1 0 -I -2 «*^ ._ 28 COUNTRY BUYERS 13 CENTRAL MARKET^ PRICE REPORTS JULY 25 TO AUGUST 6 13 CENTRAL MARKET PRICE REPORTS 29 COUNTRY BUYERS 13 CENTRAL MARKET PRICE REPORTS 43 COUNTRY BUYERS M W F S M T DAY OF WEEK W A comparison of average daily price changes made by country dealers and central market price reports over three two-week periods, for A Large eggs, in combined states, during 1955. (Fig. 8) 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 45 The greatest diversity in egg price movements between Chicago and St. Louis occurred during the fall. Over this two-week period, the St. Louis price of consumer grade A Large eggs did not change, while the price of the wholesale grade increased 1.5 cents a dozen (Table 16). During the same period, the Chicago price declined 2.0 cents. This difference in the two markets was reflected in differences within Illi- nois. Dealers in the southern area increased prices of A Large eggs an average of 1 cent a dozen in apparent response to the increase in St. Louis. Northern and central Illinois dealers reduced prices an average of 3.2 cents in apparent response to the decline in Chicago. Day-to-day price movements The previous analysis indicated that short-time price changes were not equal in all central market price reports. Also, price changes in certain central markets may have a greater influence on country dealers in one state than in another. However, to reduce space, average daily price changes on the 13 central market price reports used in the study were compared with average daily changes made by cooperating dealers in the four states. The price on the first day of each two-week period in the central markets and at country points was set equal to zero. Average price changes from this day were determined on a daily basis over the two-week period. The analysis for A Large eggs for each of the three periods is presented in Fig. 8. During each of the periods of analysis, average daily price move- ments at country points were similar to average daily movements made on the 13 central market price reports (Fig. 8). On only four days during the six weeks did the spread exceed one-half cent. The greater spread during the second week of the spring period can be traced to rapid declines in the New York nearby, Detroit, and Cleveland con- sumer price reports. As indicated in Table 16, the declines in these reports had little effect on dealers in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. During the fall period, average prices in the central markets rose during the first week, while average prices paid by country dealers showed little change (Fig. 8). However, only six of the central market price reports showed price increases during this week. Six price re- ports remained stable, while the Chicago price showed a slight decline. Country dealers were apparently hesitant about increasing prices when there appeared to be some confusion among central market price re- ports regarding the direction and extent of movements. However, during the second week of this period, 10 of the 13 central market reports showed net price declines, and average prices paid by country dealers also declined. 46 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The decline of the central wholesale egg markets has created con- cern over the existing pricing system for eggs. The egg industry is at present disturbed because the use of price reports from wholesale markets appears to be altering egg prices from those which should prevail under existing supply-and-demand conditions. This concern is not warranted unless prices paid for eggs at country points are tied to prices reported from the central markets. This report therefore deals with the relationship between prices reported in important central markets and prices paid producers for eggs in selected North Central states. Pricing information was obtained from 69 country dealers in Illi- nois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. Prices paid producers were obtained on a daily basis for three two-week periods during 1955. Central market prices were obtained from governmental or private reports issued from Chicago, New York, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, Cincin- nati, and Pittsburgh markets. Central market price reports are readily available, and most country buyers reported receipt of daily prices from at least one central market. More firms in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri received price reports from Chicago than from any other single market, while New York reports were of greater importance than any others in Ohio. Generally speaking radio was the most important medium for obtaining pricing information, although in Missouri dealers relied most heavily on news- paper reports. The majority of dealers indicated that egg price reports were influential in establishing prices to producers. However, many indicated that the reports were used only as a guide, and there was not a rigid relationship between their prices to producers and prices reported in central markets. Since more dealers indicated receiving reports from Chicago than from any other market, an analysis was made of the relationship between dealers' prices to producers and Chicago quotations. Prices paid to producers by Ohio dealers averaged above the Chicago quota- tions during the six weeks studied, while prices in each of the other states averaged below Chicago. If dealers were using the Chicago quotations as a price base, they were applying greater average discounts or smaller average premiums in pricing the Medium than in pricing the Large eggs. In each state, the producer price was lower for A Medium than for A Large eggs relative to appropriate Chicago quotations. The uniformity of the spread between producer prices and central market prices from season to season was used as one measure of how closely the various central market price reports reflected producer 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 47 prices. The New York midwestern and Chicago reports were among the better reflectors of the producer prices of A Large eggs in Missouri. The New York nearby report was among the poorest reflectors. All reports were too low during the spring period of analysis to accurately reflect producer prices. For current receipt eggs in Missouri, reports from Chicago and St. Louis most accurately reflected producer prices. Chicago was better than St. Louis in the northern and western areas, while St. Louis was the best reflector in the area of Missouri adjacent to the St. Louis market. In pricing A Large and A Medium eggs, most Illinois dealers fol- lowed the St. Louis or Chicago price reports more closely than those issued from any other market. For A Large eggs, the St. Louis reports were better than the Chicago report in reflecting producer prices in the area near the St. Louis market. The St. Louis report for the consumer grade of eggs was equally as good as the Chicago report in northern Illinois. The Chicago price was not high enough during the fall period to accurately reflect producer prices. The New York nearby quotation was the poorest reflector of producer prices of A Large eggs in all areas of Illinois. For A Medium eggs in southern Illinois, the St. Louis reports were better than Chicago. The New York nearby report was again one of the poorest reflectors. In northern Illinois, the Chicago report was one of the best, while the St. Louis reports were among the poorest. In Indiana, no single price report was better than others in reflect- ing producer prices of either A Large or A Medium eggs. Indiana is located between Chicago and the eastern markets. Indiana dealers were shipping eggs to several markets in several states. These factors created wide differences in the producer to central market price rela- tionships between dealers in the state and even in individual areas of the state. As a result, prices reported in no central market did a good job of reflecting producer prices. For A Large eggs, prices reported in Chicago and St. Louis were too low during the summer period to accurately reflect producer prices. Prices reported in most eastern markets were too high during the summer. This indicated that prices paid Indiana producers were a composite of prices reported in Chicago, St. Louis, and the eastern markets. In Ohio, prices reported in the eastern markets played a more dominant role in pricing eggs at country points, especially A Large eggs. Cincinnati, Cleveland, and the New York nearby reports were among the better reflectors of Ohio producer prices of A Large eggs, and the St. Louis and Chicago reports were the poorest. Only minor differences existed between areas of the state. The New York nearby price was too high during the summer to accurately reflect producer 48 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, prices of A Large eggs; yet all other reports were too low during the summer. This indicated that prices paid Ohio producers were a com- posite of New York nearby prices and prices reported in other eastern markets. For A Medium eggs in Ohio, there were wide differences in the producer to central market price relationships between dealers. This could partially be traced to pricing differences between the northern and southern areas of the state. In southern Ohio, the Cincinnati, Cleveland, and St. Louis price reports were among the better reflectors of producer prices, while the New York nearby and Detroit wholesale reports were among the poorest. This situation was practically reversed in the northern area. Comparisons were also made of short-time price movements at country points and central markets. Over each two-week period, prices paid to producers moved in the same direction and by approximately equal amounts as prices reported in the central markets. The more uni- form the price changes occurring among the central market price reports, the more uniform the price changes occurring at country points. There was some evidence that short-time changes in New York nearby prices and those from some of the other eastern markets exerted a greater influence in Ohio than in the other three states. Day-to-day price movements at country points also reflected the average daily movements made in the central markets. This was true when central market prices were moving up as well as when they were moving down. Country dealers could not afford to ignore a price change in the central markets, especially if the change was fairly consistent among markets. This study provides evidence that the prices dealers pay to pro- ducers in the North Central Region are not as closely related to central market price reports as many people have been led to believe. How- ever, it appears that these reports do exert sufficient influence on the pricing decisions of country dealers to encourage continued efforts to evaluate and improve the price-reporting system for eggs in the North Central Region. In this study many country dealers indicated that they used central market price reports in only a general way to establish the prices they paid to producers. A seasonal analysis of the spread between dealers' prices and those reported in central markets showed that dealers did alter this spread from period to period during the year. For example, although the Chicago market was an important source of pricing infor- mation for Illinois dealers, 12 of 14 dealers paid their highest prices for A Large eggs relative to the Chicago quotation during the fall period of analysis. All Missouri dealers paid their highest prices for A Large eggs relative to all central market price reports during the 1963] CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 49 spring. In Ohio, the New York nearby price rose too much from spring to summer to accurately reflect producer prices of A Large eggs. Yet no other price reports rose enough. These examples clearly indicate that central market price reports do not "set" prices to which North Central egg buyers rigidly adhere. Country dealers are not always guided by reported prices but alter their paying prices from season to season during the year when local supply-and-demand conditions dictate. Although the spread between country prices and central market price reports did vary from season to season, the analysis indicates that day-to-day price changes made by country dealers were closely related to changes occurring in the central markets. Country dealers apparently have no better basis than the central market price reports for determining short-run changes in supply-and-demand conditions. A country dealer can hardly afford to ignore a change in central market prices which is accepted by his competitors. Since dealers look to market reports for day-to-day price changes, it is essential that these reports accurately reflect day-to-day variations in supply and demand. The small number of transactions on which some of the central market price reports are based may hamper the ability of these reports to detect short-run changes. One of the major objections of producers and tradespeople to cen- tral market price reports is that they fluctuate more than supply-and- demand conditions warrant. This may be because prices established one day are too high in relation to actual supply-and-demand conditions. The next day they may be lowered to compensate for the error of the previous day. This procedure may cause an excessive number of changes around the equilibrium price. Since country dealers in the North Central Region do follow these numerous price changes, they will be faced with greater risks in buying and selling. They will need a higher margin to cover these risks. This higher margin will mean lower prices to producers. The poultry industry has been alert to devise improvements in the price-reporting system for eggs. A popular suggestion, and one that has been adopted in several areas, has been to report prices paid by country dealers at country points. But this practice will not solve the major pricing problem facing the egg industry — the problem of determining short-run changes in supply-and-demand. This study indi- cates that country dealers depend on market price reports for day-to- day price changes. So long as price reports originate in the central markets, country dealers will probably continue to use them in this way. If so, reporting prices paid by country dealers will only reflect the daily price changes originally reported from the central market. Appendix Table 1. — Description of Central Market Price Reports Used in Analyzing Price Relationships for Mixed A Large and A Medium Eggs Market report Description of reported price* Chicago First receivers' buying prices for mixed Large and mixed Medium (60% to 69.9% A) eggs as reported by the Chicago Market News Survey New York midwestern .... Prices of midwestern mixed Large and mixed Medium eggs delivered f.o.b. New York as quoted by the Urner- Barry Company New York nearby Prices of nearby brown Extra Fancy Heavyweight eggs and brown Medium eggs delivered f.o.b. New York as quoted by the Urner-Barry Company St. Louis wholesale Prices of mixed Large Extras and mixed Medium Extras (minimum 70% A) eggs as reported by the O'Connor Market Reporter Company St. Louis consumer Prices of mixed Grade A Large and mixed Grade A Medium eggs as reported by the O'Connor Market Re- porter Company Cleveland wholesale Prices paid for brown Large (minimum 60% A) eggs delivered to Cleveland as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA Cleveland consumer Prices paid for brown Grade A Large and brown Grade A Medium eggs delivered to Cleveland retailers as re- ported by the Market News Service of the USDA Detroit wholesale Prices paid for brown Large and brown Medium (mini- mum 60% A) eggs delivered to Detroit as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA Detroit consumer Prices paid for brown Grade A Large and brown Grade A Medium eggs delivered to Detroit as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA Cincinnati wholesale Prices paid for brown Large (minimum 60% A) eggs de- livered to Cincinnati as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA Cincinnati consumer Prices paid for brown Grade A Large and brown Grade A Medium eggs delivered to Cincinnati as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA Pittsburgh wholesale Prices paid f.o.b. Pittsburgh for brown and mixed Large Extras and brown and mixed Medium Extras (minimum 60% A) eggs as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA Pittsburgh consumer Prices paid by Pittsburgh retailers for mixed and brown Grade A Large and mixed and brown Grade A Medium eggs as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA Appendix Table 2. — Description of Central Market Price Reports Used in Analyzing Price Relationships for Current Receipt Eggs Market report Description of reported price" Chicago First receivers' buying prices for current receipt eggs as reported by the Chicago Market News Survey St. Louis Prices of unclassified eggs as reported by the O'Connor Market Reporter Company Cincinnati Prices of farm run eggs delivered to Cincinnati as reported by the Market News Service of the USDA • Where price ranges were reported, midpoints were used. Mostly prices were used if reported. 1963} CENTRAL EGG REPORTS AND PRODUCER PRICES 51 Appendix Table 3. — Average Prices Paid Producers for Mixed A Large, Mixed A Medium, and Current Receipts Eggs as a Differential From the Chicago Quotation for the Comparable Grades of Eggs, in Periods of 1955, by States and Areas State April 18- July 25- October 24- and area April 30 August 6 November 5 Average Mixed A Large Eggs Illinois (cents per dozen above or below Chicago) Northern -3.6 -3.3 -1.6 -2.8 Central -4.4 -5.4 -5.1 -5.0 Southern -2.1 -2.6 + .9 -1.3 State -3.2 -3.5 -1.5 -2.7 Indiana Northern -4.4 +1-6 -2.5 -1.7 Central -3.0 -2.5 -2.4 -2.6 Southern -5.7 -.7 -2.8 -3.1 State -4.4 -.5 -2.6 -2.5 Missouri Northern -4.3 -7.0 -8.8 -6.7 Eastern -4.1 -9.1 -12.5 -8.6 Western -4.0 -10.4 -9.3 -7.9 State -4.1 -8.8 -10.2 -7.7 Ohio Eastern +1.1 +8.7 +3.4 +4.4 Western -1.6 +4.6 + .4 + 1.1 State -.3 +6.6 + 1.9 +2.7 Mixed A Medium Eggs Illinois Northern -5.9 -6.2 -5.7 -5.9 Central -6.5 -7.9 -7.3 -7.2 Southern -3.9 -6.4 +2.1 -2.7 State -5.3 -6.6 -3.3 -5.1 Indiana Northern -5.2 -4.3 -3.6 -4.4 Central -4.4 -4.8 -2.6 -3.9 Southern -6.6 -6.1 -.3 -4.3 State -5.6 -5.1 -2.1 -4.3 Ohio Eastern +.3 +2.3 +2.9 + 1.8 Western -3.6 +.5 -.6 -1.2 State -1.7 +1.4 + 1.2 + .3 Current Receipt Eggs Illinois Northern -4.4 -3.1 -2.8 -3.4 Central -3.0 -3.9 -.2 -2.4 Southern -4.9 -2.8 -1.6 -3.1 State -4.3 -3.1 -1.8 -3.1 Indiana Central -5.3 -6.4 -.5 -4.1 Southern -5.7 -5.4 +3.7 -2.5 State -5.6 -5.7 +2.3 -3.0 Missouri Northern -4.2 -5.2 -5.4 -4.9 Eastern -5.4 -5.9 -1.4 -4.2 Western -3.3 -5.0 -5.1 -4.5 State -4.2 -5.3 -4.1 -4.5 52 ILLINOIS BULLETIN 691; REGIONAL PUBLICATION 132 [February, 4) C* 0 w~ O 1 " v> — 03 (9 C 'O *-> V 0 X ^ u o Sli J-1 +J w g OV*O t-t-t-Oat- ^ft-10 ^ ++77++7++++7T 717772^1+72 ~ »>. w 0 -5 1 00° ++7+++7+++++7 +7T++T+++77 18 1 77+++7+7 ' +77 77T++7 ' 7+77 ^ ^ ^oo^-oaoooooaooa -0- *j O 777777 i ' 7777 i 1 1 1 i S"1 177111 7777777 7 '7 41 o 71 + cs • oaacv^-^^^o-^ *,«« J o c •»*> •2 1 1 1 1 1 17 ' 1 1 1 17 „ 1 1 1 1 1 7+ 1 1 1 7 1 a «*««- .5 ^M hS "3< is sf '~7++T7T^777 *> ^ > < | TT^TT^TTTS e. 10 i cs ill 1 II rt £ •^'*COr^csf5|Of)vO^l* i^t^ g| "7,1,7, ,,',7 | TT7777777T7 |777 4.» •o *>