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Report of the
International Ice Patrol
In the North Atlantic

2003 Season
Bulletin No. 89
CG-1 88-58

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Report of the
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in the North Atlantic

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2003 Season
Bulletin No. 89
CG-1 88-58

Bulletin No. 89
REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL ICE PATROL IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC

Season of 2003
CG-1 88-58

Forwarded herewith is Bulletin No. 89 of the International Ice Patrol (IIP), describing the
Patrol's services, ice observations and conditions during the 2003 season. On March 1 ,
2003, the U.S. Coast Guard transitioned from the Department of Transportation to the
newly created Department of Homeland Security. The Department of Homeland
Security will continue to recognize and support the U. S. Coast Guard's traditional
missions like the International Ice Patrol.

Pictured on the front cover of this bulletin is the deployment of a Compact Air Launched
Ice Beacon (CALIB). IIP deployed this beacon and tracked the iceberg for 13 days. This
allowed a comparison to HP's present drift model and opened the door for future
experiments in 2004. Drift model improvements will better focus reconnaissance efforts
and ultimately improve the accuracy of IIP bulletins. Appendix D of this report provides
further detail.

In 2003, IIP also participated in the Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security
(GMES), a joint European Commission and European Space Agency initiative. As part
of the Northern View Service Element, IIP worked closely with a Canadian company, C-
CORE to evaluate an iceberg detection algorithm for satellite images. Along with
validating the accuracy of this algorithm, IIP focused on the mechanics of incorporating
this data into MP's drift model. The capability to use satellite imagery operationally, while
still several years away, will greatly improve iceberg reconnaissance efforts - especially
in the planning phase for aircraft searches.

Efforts during the 2003 season advanced MP's improvement of mission execution,
directly supported the stewardship of valuable Coast Guard resources and moved IIP
one step closer toward eliminating the risk of iceberg collision.

M. R. Hicks

Commander, U. S. Coast Guard

Commander, International Ice Patrol

International Ice Patrol
2003 Annual Report

Contents
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 2

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Summary of Operations 4

Iceberg Reconnaissance & Oceanographic Operations 10

Ice and Environmental Conditions 15

Monthly Sea Ice Charts 24

Biweekly Iceberg Charts 30

Acknowledgements 41

Appendix A: Nations Currently Supporting International Ice Patrol 42

Appendix B: Ship Reports 43

Appendix C: 2003 Ice Chart Reception Project 48

Appendix D: Iceberg Drift Model Comparisons with Ice Island

Position Data 51

Ordering Past IIP Annual Reports from NTIS Back Cover

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

AOR Area Of Responsibility

AXBT Air-deployed expendable BathyThermograph

BAPS iceBerg Analysis and Prediction System

CALIB Compact Air Launched Ice Beacon

CAMSLANT Communications Area Master Station atLANTic

CCG Canadian Coast Guard

CIS Canadian Ice Service

DFO Department of Fisheries and Oceans

EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone

FLAR Forward-looking Airborne Radar

GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security

GS Gulf Stream

GSFC Goddard Space Flight Center

HF High Frequency

HMCS Her Majesty's Canadian Ship

IIP International Ice Patrol

INMARSAT INternational MARitime SATellite (also Inmarsat)

IRD Ice Reconnaissance Detachment

LAKI Limit of All Known Ice

LC Labrador Current

LDEO Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

MANICE MANual of standard procedures for observing and reporting ICE conditions

MODIS MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

MSS5000 Marine Surveillance System 5000

MA/ Motor Vessel

NAC North Atlantic Current

NAO North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NIC National Ice Center

NSSI Normalized Season Severity Index

NTIS National Technical Information Service

RADAR Radio Detection And Ranging (also radar)

RMS Royal Mail Steamer

SOLAS Safety Of Life At Sea

SLAR Side-Looking Airborne Radar

SST Sea Surface Temperature

WEFAX WEather FAX

WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment

WWW World Wide Web

Introduction

This is the 89'^^ annual report of the International Ice Patrol. It contains infornnation
on IIP operations, environmental conditions, and iceberg conditions for the 2003 season
in the North Atlantic. IIP is supported by 17 member nations and conducted by the U. S.
Coast Guard. IIP activities are delineated by U. S. Code, Title 46, Sections 738, 738a
through 738d, and the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974. IIP
was initiated shortly after the sinking of the RMS TITANIC on April 15, 1912 and has
been conducted yearly since that time with the exception of brief periods during the two
World Wars.

Commander, International Ice Patrol is under the operational control of
Commander, Coast Guard Atlantic Area. IIP conducts aerial reconnaissance from St.
John's, Newfoundland to search the southeastern, southern, and southwestern regions
of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland for icebergs. IIP also receives iceberg location
reports from ships and planes transiting its area of responsibility. We salute M/V BERGE
NORD who provided the most ship reports during the 2003 season. IIP analyzes iceberg
and environmental data at its Operations Center in Groton, Connecticut. IIP predicts
iceberg drift and deterioration using a computer model and produces twice-daily iceberg
warnings that are broadcast to mariners as bulletins and charts. IIP also responds to
requests for iceberg information.

Vice Admiral James D. Hull was Commander, U. S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area.
CDR Robert L. Desh was Commander, International Ice Patrol through 15 August 2003
when he was relieved by CDR Michael R. Hicks.

For more information about International Ice Patrol, including iceberg bulletins and
charts, see MP's website at http://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/home.html.

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INTERNATIONAL
ICE PATROL

Summary of Operations

International Ice Patrol tornnally
begins its seasonal ice observation and Ice
Patrol service when icebergs threaten
primary shipping routes between Europe
and North America. This usually occurs in
February and extends through July, but Ice
Patrol commences operations when
iceberg conditions dictate. Except during
unusually heavy ice years, the Grand
Banks ot Newfoundland are normally
iceberg free from August through January.

International Ice Patrol actively
monitors the iceberg danger to
transatlantic shipping in the region
bounded by 40°N, 52°N, 39°W, and 57°W
(Figure 1). Ice Patrol began issuing weekly
products on 14 February 2003.
Commander, International Ice Patrol
opened the season on 24 March 2003 and
daily products were distributed through the

close of the season on 17 July 2003. Note:
All of the statistics reported in this
summary are from the time frame
mentioned above (14 February through 17
July 2003).

International Ice Patrol's Operations
Center in Groton, Connecticut analyzed
1,708 information reports from IIP IRDs,
merchant vessels, the Canadian
Government, the National Ice Center, and
other sources (Figure 2). Of these reports,
425 contained ice information (Figure 3).
These ice reports potentially contained
single or multiple iceberg sightings,
stationary radar targets, and sea ice
information. From these reports, 2,454
individual targets were merged into the Ice
Patrol's modeling system (BAPS). Figure
4 highlights the reporting source of
sightings merged into BAPS.

Labrador

Figure 1. HP's operating area. T indicates location of TITANIC sink

ing

IIP

NIC

Canadian

2%

<1%

Government

8% ^rr

V

«.

Other

<1%

Unknown

<1%

Merchant

Vessels

89%

Figure 2. Reporting sources of the 1 ,708 information
reports received at Ice Patrol during 2003. Information
reports include ice, SST, and weather reports.

Information Reports

Voluntary reports were requested
from all ships transiting the Grand Banks
region. As in previous years, ships were
asked to report ice sightings, weather, and
sea surface temperatures via Canadian
Coast Guard Radio Station St. John's/
VON, U. S. Coast Guard Communications
Area Master Station Atlantic/NMF or
Inmarsat-C or Inmarsat-A using code 42.
Ships were encouraged to make ice
reports even if "no ice" was sighted, as
knowledge of the lack of ice is also
fundamental to accurate product
generation for the mariner. The continued
success and viability of the International
Ice Patrol depends heavily upon all
contributors of ice reports.

Merchant shipping provided the vast
majority of reports received by IIP. In
2003, 247 ships from 39 different countries
provided IIP with 1,512 or 89% of total
reports. This demonstrated that the
number of nations that used IIP services
exceeded the 17 member nations that
supported IIP under SOLAS. Furthermore,
the international merchant fleet's high level
of participation indicated the value placed
on IIP products and services. In 2003, the
merchant vessel that provided the most
reports was BERGE NORD (NonA/ay),
submitting 70 separate reports. Appendix
B lists all ships that provided information
reports, including weather, ice, stationary
radar target, and sea surface temperature
reports. While the vast majority of
information reports were received from
merchant shipping, IIP received valuable
information from other sources as well.
For example, the Canadian Government,
which included reports from the CIS
reconnaissance airplane, contract
reconnaissance flights by Provincial
Airlines, HMCS vessels, CCG vessels, and
even coastal lighthouses, provided 150 or
8% of the information reports received by
IIP. Figure 2 provides a thorough
breakdown of the sources for all
information reports handled during 2003.

Ice Reports

Canadian

Govern m ent

30%

M erchant

Vessels

59%

Figure 3. Reporting sources of the 425 ice reports
received during 2003. Ice reports include individual
iceberg sightings and stationary radar target information.

Only a portion of the total reports
sent to IIP contained ice information;
specifically, 425 of the 1,708 information
reports contained data on icebergs.
Similar to information reports, the merchant
fleet provided the greatest number of ice
reports (59%) and the Canadian
Government 30%. The remaining 11% of
ice reports were received from IIP
reconnaissance, the National Ice Center,
and other resources. Refer to Figure 3 for
a breakdown of ice report sources.

Canadian

Government

66%

Merchant
Vessels

4%

Figure 4. Reporting sources of the 2,454 individual
targets merged into BAPS during 2003.

Merged Targets

The 425 ice reports received by IIP
contained 2,454 targets that were merged
into the drift and deterioration modeling
system operated jointly between CIS and
IIP (BAPS). The source responsible for
reporting the most targets that were
merged into HP's BAPS model was the
Canadian Government with 66%. BAPS
transferred targets accounted for 16% of
the targets in MP's model. These targets
were originally sighted north of HP's AOR
and then were passed to HP's model when
they drifted south of 52°N. The
configuration of the BAPS model makes
determining the original sources for targets
of this type extremely cumbersome.
Consequently, no attempts were made to
determine the original sighting source of
targets transferred to IIP via BAPS; so for
statistical purposes BAPS did not submit
reports to IIP and was not noted in Figures
2 or 3. IIP accounted for 14% of merged
targets, merchant vessels 4% and the
National Ice Center less than 1% (Figure 4).

LAKI Iceberg Sightings

Since IIP is mandated by SOLAS to
guard the Southeast, South, and
Southwest regions of the Grand Banks, IIP
closely monitors those icebergs that set the
limits. Additionally, IIP spends the majority
of its resources in searching for the

icebergs that are the most seaward.
Therefore, the initial sighting source for
icebergs that determine the LAKI is very
interesting. IIP detected 60% of LAKI
icebergs (Figure 5) and the Canadian
government reported 11%. However, IIP
also benefited significantly from the
participation of ships of opportunity and
from MP's partnership with the National Ice
Center. The merchant shipping industry
was the original reporting source of 23% of
LAKI icebergs and NIC reported another
4%. Finally, BAPS model transfers
between IIP and the Canadian Ice Service
accounted for 2% of LAKI icebergs.

Canadian

NIC

BAPS

Government

1 1 %_,

4%

2%

IIP

60%

Figure 5. Initial reporting sources of LAKI
determining icebergs during the 2003 season.

IIP Broadcasts/Products

For the second year, since the
changes to SOLAS, ships were required to
make use of International Ice Patrol
services while in the IIP AOR. Throughout
the iceberg season, IIP produced two
products a day (OOOOZ and 1200Z) and
distributed them by a wide variety of
methods. Vessels received text ice
bulletins at OOOOZ and 1200Z daily to
inform them of the Limit of All Known Ice.
U. S. Coast Guard Communications Area
Master Station Atlantic/NMF and Canadian
Coast Guard Marine Communications and
Traffic Service St. John'sA/ON were the
primary radio stations responsible for the
dissemination of ice bulletins. In addition,
ice bulletins and safety broadcasts were
delivered over the Inmarsat-C SafetyNET

via the Atlantic East and West satellites.
Another transmitting station for the
bulletins was the Marine Communications
and Traffic Services St. AnthonyA/CM. IIP
also prepared an ice chart depicting the
1200Z Limit of All Known Ice for broadcast
at 1600Z and 1810Z daily. U. S. Coast
Guard Communications Area Master
Station Atlantic/NMF and the National
Weather Service assisted with the
transmission of the ice chart. On the
eastern side of the Atlantic, the German
Federal Maritime and Hydrographic
Agency stations Hamburg/DDH and
Pinneberg/DDK transmitted MP's ice chart.
Finally, both the bulletin and chart were
placed on HP's website. The ice chart was
also made available via plain paper
facsimile and e-mail on demand.

IIP transmitted 232 scheduled ice
bulletins in 2003. IIP measured the quality
and timeliness of the bulletins delivered to
the mariner via the SafetyNET service, as
this is the primary product for HP's largest
customer base. Of 232 total bulletins sent,
230 (99%) arrived at the system on time, or
by OOOOZ or 1200Z, respectively. The late
deliveries were due primarily to minor
technical difficulties in sending the product
through HP's commercial INMARSAT
provider.

In 2003, IIP produced 116 Ice charts
that were distributed via HF radiofacsimile,
e-mail on demand, and published on the
WWW. Of these, 105 (91%) were delivered
on time. Late ice charts were defined as
those for which the radio frequency start
tone began more than one minute later
than the scheduled transmission time
(1600Z or 1810Z). The primary cause of
late ice charts was difficulty getting the
signal from IIP through the line to
CAMSLANT.

Safety Broadcasts

IIP sent 20 unscheduled safety
broadcasts during the 2003 season for 29
iceberg or stationary radar target sightings
near or outside the published LAKI. Of
these 29 targets, 1 1 were icebergs
reported outside the published LAKI, 4
were icebergs inside but near the LAKI,
and the remaining 14 detailed stationary
radar targets.

Historical Perspective

To compare ice years in a historical
perspective, IIP uses two different
measurements. The first is the season's
length in days (Figure 6). The second is
the number of icebergs south of 48°N
(Figure 7). This measurement includes
both icebergs detected south of 48°N and
those that were originally detected north of

2003
2002

S 2001

2000 E
1 999

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200

Figure 6. Length of ice season in days since 1999.
The climatological (three year) mean is 120 days.

2003
2002
2001
2000
1999

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Icebergs

Figure 7. Count of individual icebergs (sighted and
drifted) south of 48°N since 1999. The climatological
(three year) mean is 631 icebergs.

48°N but were later predicted to have
drifted south of 48°N. The 2003 season
lasted for 116 days and saw 927 individual
icebergs south of 48°N. The icebergs
south of 48°N measurement is generally
preferred by IIP because it places the
emphasis on icebergs that represent a
significant hazard to transatlantic shipping.
Season length is coupled with the number
of icebergs south of 48°N as Commander,
International Ice Patrol considers the
overall iceberg population and dates for the
opening and closing of the ice season.

In the effort to classify ice season
severity, various authors have discussed
the appropriate measurements and criteria
(Alfultis, 1987; Trivers, 1994; and Marko, et
al., 1994). Comparing 2003 to the past five
years and measuring the statistics against
historical ice patrol data, 2003 was
moderate in terms of season length and
extreme in terms of the number of icebergs
south of 48°N. Trivers (1994) defined an
extreme ice season as one where more
than 600 icebergs drifted south of 48°N.
Trivers also defined a moderate season, in
terms of length, as one between 105 and
180 days.

Canadian Support

The Canadian Government provided
a great deal of support during the 2003
season, as they do every year. CIS
conducted ice reconnaissance using a
SLAR equipped Dash-7 airplane, focusing
primarily on sea ice. Provincial Airlines is
a private company that provided
reconnaissance services on contract to
DFO throughout the year, to CIS from June
through December and to the offshore oil

industry. DFO flights by Provincial Airlines
monitored fishing vessel activity and
frequently carried them into areas of high
iceberg concentrations. Canadian support
of BAPS was also an integral part of MP's
operations. The models are connected via
the internet and "speak" to each other
numerous times each day. For example,
CIS retrieves environmental data (waves,
currents, sea surface temperatures, etc.)
that reside on HP's BAPS. IIP received
data on icebergs crossing into our AOR in
a similar method.

Ongoing Research

In an effort to continuously improve
through the use of technology, IIP
participated in the Global Monitoring for
Environment and Security (GMES)
program, which was sponsored by the
European Space Agency. liP was an end
user of ice products from the Northern
View team, which was led by C-CORE.
Envisat and Radarsat images were
analyzed by the C-CORE iceberg/ship
detection algorithm and the location of the
targets were sent to IIP in MANICE code,
approximately 4-5 hours after image
acquisition. The C-CORE algorithm
detected hard targets in the satellite
imagery and distinguished ships from
icebergs. IIP received data from 45
Envisat and Radarsat MANICE messages
from May l" through July 1l'^ 2003.
Ongoing analysis is taking place to
evaluate the algorithm by comparing the
MANICE messages received from C-
CORE, with iceberg information from HP's
BAPS system. Ice Patrol hopes to
continue its participation in GMES during
the 2004 iceberg season.

References

Alfultis, M. 1987. Iceberg Populations South of 48°N Since 1900. Appendix B in Report
of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1987 Season, Bulletin No. 73,
CG-1 88-42, 63-67.

Marko, J. R., D. B. Fissel, P. Wadhams, P. M. Kelly and R. D. Brown, 1994. Iceberg
Severity off Eastern North America: Its Relationship to Sea Ice Variability and
Climate Change. J. Climate, 7, 1335-1351.

Trivers, G., 1994. International Ice Patrol's Iceberg Season Severity. Appendix C in
Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1994 Season, Bulletin
No. 80, CG-1 88-49, 49-59

Iceberg Reconnaissance & Oceanographic Operations

Iceberg Reconnaissance

The Ice Reconnaissance

Detachment is a sub-unit under
Commander, International Ice Patrol
partnered with Coast Guard Air Station
Elizabeth City who provided the aircraft
platform. IRDs were deployed to observe
and report sea ice, iceberg and
oceanographic conditions on the Grand
Banks of Newfoundland. Oceanographic
observations were used in support of
operations as well as for research
purposes.

Ice Patrol's pre-season IRD
departed on 21 January 2003 to determine
the early season iceberg distribution. The
iceberg distribution noted during the pre-
season IRD did not initially warrant regular
(every other week) deployments to
Newfoundland. Subsequently, only one
IRD was deployed during the six weeks
from the end of the pre-season until regular
deployments were started on 19 March
2003. Regular IRDs operated from St.
John's, Newfoundland until 13 July 2003.
An average of four
reconnaissance flights were
made during each IRD.
Iceberg reconnaissance
operations concluded with
the return of the post-
season IRD on 5 September
2003.

Coast Guard aircraft
were the primary means of
detecting icebergs that form
the Limit of All Known Ice.
IIP utilized a Coast Guard
HC-130H long-range aircraft
equipped with the Motorola
AN/APS-135 Side-Looking
Airborne Radar and the

Texas Instruments AN/APS-137 Forward-
Looking Airborne Radar to conduct iceberg
reconnaissance. IIP has used SLAR since
1983, incorporated the Maritime
Surveillance System (MSS) 5000 to SLAR
in 2000, and has used FLAR since 1993.

Environmental conditions on the
Grand Banks permitted adequate visibility
only 30% of the time during iceberg
reconnaissance operations. Consequently,
IIP relied heavily on its two airborne radar
systems to detect and identify icebergs
through cloudy and foggy conditions. The
radar combination of SLAR and FLAR
allowed detection and identification of
icebergs in pervasive low visibility
conditions minimizing the flight hours
required to accurately determine the LAKI.
The radar combination allowed IIP to use
30 NM track spacing throughout the
season. The HC-130H with SLAR and
FLAR facilitated coverage of a large ocean
area while providing 200% radar coverage
(Figure 8). IIP can currently cover 40,000
NM^ at 30 NM track spacing in any visibility
conditions. A detailed description of MP's

FLAR & SLAR Radar Coverage

SLAR

30 NM track spacing provides 200% radar coverage of search area

30 NM
Track Spacing

Drawing is not to scale

Figure 8. Radar reconnaissance plan.

10

reconnaissance strategy is provided at

http://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/FAQ/Reco

nnOp_10.shtml.

An IRD was deployed to MP's base
of operations in St. John's, Newfoundland
for 94 days during the 2003 season (Table
1). IIP flew 70 sorties, 28 of which were
transit flights to and from St. John's.
Thirty-eight sorties were iceberg
reconnaissance patrols to determine the
southwestern, southern and southeastern
LAKI. No research sorties were flown in
2003. Four sorties were logistics flights
from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth
City to maintain and repair the aircraft.
Figure 9 details IIP flight hours for 2003.

Logistics
Hours

5%

.p.. Deployed Iceberg Flight
Days Patrols Hours

Pre

9 1 18.0

1

Cancelled

2

9

4

27.2

3

Cancelled

4

8

3

28.2

5

9

3

42.7

6

8

4

38.0

7

8

4

39.2

8

9

5

52.9

9

9

4

27.9

10

8

4

39.1

11

7

4

40.6

12

5

2

22.7

Post

5

0

9.3

Total

94

38

385.8

Table 1. 2003 IRD summary.

NOTE: Flight hours include patrol and transit hours.

IRD#5 includes 10 and IRD#8 includes 9.9 logistic hours.

IIP used 385.8 flight hours in
2003, a 19% decrease from 2002 (Figure
10). This decrease was partially due to the
addition of a patrol decision guide to aid
the Tactical Commander. The patrol
decision guide, using a point system,
placed a given patrol into a
green/amber/red model based on aircraft
condition, environmental conditions and

Figure 9. 2003 flight hours.

patrol area priority. This tool was designed
to improve flight hour efficiency (i.e.,
ensure patrol results were the best
possible). Figure 11 compares flight hours
with the number of icebergs south of 48°N
latitude since 1988. This figure
demonstrates that IIP expends a fairly
consistent number of flight hours while the
number of icebergs varies significantly. A
few icebergs can dramatically extend the
geographic distribution of the LAKI even
with a small number of icebergs passing
south of 48°N. IIP is often in the position of
having to patrol a large ocean area with
widely distributed icebergs.

Differentiating the various types of
targets on the Grand Banks is a continuous
challenge for IIP reconnaissance. Visibility
is frequently poor and targets are often
identified solely from their radar image.
Both SLAR and FLAR provide valuable

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400

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200
100

B B

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999 2000 2001 2002 2003

■ Patrol Hours BTransit Hours
□ Research Hours BLogistics Hours

Figure 10. Breakdown of flight hours (1999-2003).

11

clues about the identity of targets.
However, FLAR's superior imaging
capability provides definitive target
identification in nnost cases. Figure 12
displays the number and types of targets
detected by reconnaissance patrols during
the 2003 season. A total of 728 icebergs
were detected by IRDs, 36% (264) were
identified with radar alone (i.e., were never
seen visually) while the remaining 64%
(464) were identified using a combination
of visual and radar information or by visual
means alone. These data demonstrate
HP's reliance on radar information.
Determining whether a radar target is an
iceberg or a vessel is difficult with small
vessels and small icebergs. The Grand
Banks is a major fishing area frequented
by fishing vessels ranging in size from 60
to over 200 feet. Small vessels and small
icebergs sometimes present similar radar
returns and cannot be differentiated.
When there are no clear distinguishing
features, a target is classified as a radar
target.

Since 1997, the Grand Banks region
has been rapidly developed for its oil
reserves. In November 1997, Hibernia, a
gravity-based oil production platform, was
set in position approximately 150 NM
offshore on the northeastern portion of the
Grand Banks. Each year, there are

Ships
886,

2500

2000

1500

1000

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Radar

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Icebergs

728

/

Radar &

Visual

392

Radar

/

/

Only

y

264

w

Visual

72

idiijma Growlers

97 PR

Figure 12. Breakdown of targets detected by IRDs in 2003.

Figure 11. Flight hours versus icebergs south of
48°N (1993-2003).

several mobile drilling rigs in the Terra
Nova and White Rose drilling fields on the
Grand Banks. Increased development has
increased air and surface traffic in MP's
area of responsibility, further complicating
reconnaissance efforts.

Oceanographic Operations

Historically, IIP conducted extensive
oceanographic surveys on the Grand
Banks. Oceanographic operations peaked
in the 1960's when the U. S. Coast Guard
devoted substantial surface ship resources
to collecting oceanographic data. Two
factors combined to change the nature of
HP's oceanographic operations. First,
increased competition among the various
U. S. Coast Guard missions made it
increasingly difficult for IIP to obtain ship
resources. Second, there was a vast
improvement in the capability and reliability
of deployable oceanographic instruments.

IIP collected oceanographic data
with air or ship-deployed satellite-tracked
drifting buoys and Air-deployed
expendable BathyThermograph probes.
AXBT probes were dropped to determine
the water temperature profile. This
information helped IIP determine the
location of the Labrador Current, validate
temperatures from satellite-tracked drifting
buoys, and obtain precise SST
measurements for numerical models.
Figure 13 displays AXBT drop locations

12

Figure 13. AXBT drop locations.

during the 2003 season. IIP dropped 30
AXBT probes and collected data from 25 of
the drops for a failure rate of 16.6%.
Figure 14 describes the development of
HP's AXBT program since 1999\ The
marked reduction in AXBT drops during
2003 can be attributed to a change in
AXBT drop policy that occurred following
the 2002 season in an attempt to eliminate
drops that interfered with the flight plan or
othenwise reduced the effectiveness of the
reconnaissance.

AXBT information was coded into a
standard format and shared with the

140
120
100

CQ

80
60
40
20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
i^i^AXBTs • Failure rate

Figure 14. AXBT drops and failure rate (1999-2003).

' 1999 is used as the base year for these data because of
the implementation of a new AXBT receiver system
during that year. Software upgrades, planned for
completion in 2004, are expected to further reduce
failures.

Canadian Maritime Atlantic Command
Meteorological and Oceanographic Center,
HP's supplier of AXBT probes. Data was
also sent to the U. S. Naval Fleet
Numerical Meteorological and

Oceanographic Center where it was quality
controlled and redistributed via
oceanographic products.

Satellite-tracked drifting buoys,
popularly known as WOCE buoys, were
drogued at a depth of 15 or 50 meters and
provided near real-time ocean current
information. For operational use by IIP,
WOCE buoys were deployed primarily in
the inshore and offshore branches of the
Labrador Current. The historical current
database used by HP's computer model
was modified weekly using information
from these drifting buoys. The 2003
iceberg season proved especially
challenging in terms of current variability at
the southern end of the Grand Banks and
in the vicinity of the Flemish Cap,
demonstrating HP's requirement for this
valuable information.

During the 2003 season, IIP
deployed ten satellite-tracked drifting
buoys, four from reconnaissance aircraft
and six from volunteer ships. Figure 15
displays composite drift tracks for the
buoys deployed in 2003. Figure 16
displays the shift from aircraft deployments
to ship deployments over the last few
seasons. Ship deployments are less costly
and less traumatic to the buoy than aircraft
deployments. IIP intends to maintain the
capability to deploy buoys from aircraft,
primarily for early season deployments to
the north and isolated required
deployments during the season. No buoy
recoveries were planned or attempted in
2003. Detailed drifter information is
provided in HP's 2003 WOCE Buoy Drift
Track Atlas (available from IIP upon
request).

13

A Compact Air Launched Ice
Beacon (CALIB) was deployed on a very
large tabular iceberg in early May during a
reconnaissance patrol. The CALIB
provided 13 days of satellite tracking
information. The iceberg drift information
provided by the CALIB will be used for
testing the current and future versions of
BAPS. Please refer to Appendix D for full
details of the CALIB drop and preliminary
research.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

■ Air aShipj

Figure 16. WOCE buoy deployments (1999-2003).

srN

48°N -'

45"N

42''N

39°N

54°W

48°W

42°W

36^

30°W

Figure 15. 2003 satellite-tracked drifting buoy tracks. Red stars indicate point of entry.

14

Ice and Environmental Conditions

Introduction

For the second year in a row, large
numbers of icebergs entered the North
Atlantic Ocean shipping lanes near the
Grand Banks of Newfoundland (Figure 17),
with an estimated 927 icebergs passing
south of 48°N. This section describes
progression of the 2003 ice season and the
environmental conditions it accompanied.

The IIP ice year extends from
October through September. The following
month by month narrative begins as sea
ice began forming along the Labrador
coast in early December 2002, and
concludes in mid July 2003 with the closing

of the MP's iceberg season. The narrative
draws from several sources, including the
Seasonal Summary for Eastern Canadian
Waters, Winter 2002-2003 (Canadian Ice
Service, 2003); sea ice analyses provided
by CIS and NIC; and sea surface
temperature anomaly plots provided by the
U. S. National Weather Service's Climate
Prediction Center (Climate Prediction
Center, 2004); and, finally, summaries of
the iceberg data collected by IIP and CIS.
The plots on pages 31 to 40 document the
LAKI twice a month (the 15th and last day
of each month) for the duration of the ice
season. In addition, the LAKI for the
opening (24 March) and closing (17 July)
days of the season are presented.

0

61-0tI*W n56-00'W 051-00'W 046-00"W 041-00'W 036

Hamilton Inlfct^^' •i^*-^

052-00"N-

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jjy4-00"N

LABRADOR •!

./Q'

#

Jl^

iHSt. Anthony

7C

r * ^w^^'^ape Fre els

^dEWFOUr IDLArv^i. pape B

i^P

040-00'N-

Dnavista

GRAND

Dhn's

BANKS

Flemish
Pass

FLEMISH
CAP

Kev to Ocean Deoth

LAND
0 - 200m
200 -1,000m
1,000- 4,000m
> 4,000m

Figure 17. Grand banks of Newfoundland.

15

The progress of the 2002-2003
season is compared to sea ice and iceberg
observations from the historical record.
This places the season in perspective and
helps to understand the variability of the
ice distribution in the western north
Atlantic. The sea ice historical data are
derived from the Sea Ice Climatic Atlas,
East Coast of Canada, 1971-2000
(Canadian Ice Service, 2001), which
provides a 30 year median of ice
concentration at seven day intervals for the
period from November 26 through July 16.
Historical iceberg information is derived
from Viekman and Baumer (1995), who
present iceberg limit climatology from mid-
March to July 30 based on 21 years of Ice
Patrol observations from 1975 through
1995. They provide the extreme, median,
and minimum extent of the LAKI for the
period. Finally, the average number of
icebergs estimated to have drifted south of
48°N for each month was calculated using
103 years (1900 through 2002) of Ice
Patrol records (IIP, 2004).

The pre-season sea ice forecast
(Canadian Ice Service, 2002), which was
issued in early December, predicted:

• near normal freeze-up along
the Labrador coast and in
east Newfoundland waters,

• movement of the southern ice
edge into the Strait of Belle
Isle during the first week of
January 2003,

• sea ice would reach Cape
Bonavista during the first
week of February,

• maximum extent of the sea
ice attained during the third
week of March, with the ice
edge approximately at the
latitude of St. John's for most
of the month,

• likely intrusions of the sea ice
to 47°W at the latitude of St.
John's,

• sea ice retreat beginning
during the last week of the
month and proceeding at a
normal rate.

A series of five CIS reconnaissance flights
conducted in late September through early
October 2002 documented a population of
646 icebergs and radar targets from 61 °N
to 70°N, with the highest concentration
between 64°N and 65°N (Desjardins,
2002). Desjardins (2002) predicted that
the first of these would reach 48°N during
early February 2003.

December 2002

Early in December, sea ice
conditions in northern Labrador were near
normal. The ice edge was immediately to
the north of Cape Chidley, the
northernmost point in Labrador, and ice
had begun to form in the bays and along
the coast. Ice continued to develop along
the northern coast in early December, but
by mid month it was a few days behind
normal. The second half of December
witnessed much warmer than normal air
temperatures in southern Labrador and
northern Newfoundland. Although ice
continued to develop along the Labrador
coast, the eastward extent was much less
than normal. The elevated temperatures
also delayed the movement of the southern
ice edge into the Strait of Belle Isle by
about a week. Mean December SSTs
were near normal off the southern
Labrador coast and on the northeast
Newfoundland Shelf. At month's end, the
Strait of Belle Isle was free of sea ice. No
icebergs passed south of 48°N during
December.

16

January 2003

During a normal January, the sea
ice edge moves southward from Cape
Bauld, near the entrance to the Strait of
Belle Isle, to Cape Freels. a distance of
150 NM. January 2003 was far from
normal.

The southern ice edge moved into
the Strait of Belle Isle during the first week
of January as predicted by Canadian Ice
Service (2002). Throughout the first half of
the month, northern Newfoundland and the
southern Labrador coast experienced
higher than normal air temperatures, while
southern Newfoundland was close to
normal. By mid month, the ice edge
reached southward to about 20 NM south
of St. Anthony and eastward approximately
50 NM east of the Northern Arm of
Newfoundland. Both the southern and
eastern extent were about a week to 10
days behind normal in their development.

After mid-month, the southern ice
edge progressed slowly, but persistently,
southward along the Northern Arm, but
extending only about 60 NM offshore. At
the same time, a large, blocking high-
pressure system was settling into the
central north Atlantic. Its presence altered
the north Atlantic storm track, setting the
stage for the passage of a series of intense
low-pressure systems over Newfoundland.
During the third week of January, three
blizzards dropped nearly a meter of snow
on St. John's. In all, January 2003 tied
1960 as the snowiest January on St.
John's record. The storms brought strong
southerly winds to northeast Newfoundland
waters, resulting in widespread ice
destruction and much warmer than normal
air temperatures, a combination that
precipitated a rapid retreat of the southern
ice edge. January ended with the southern
sea ice edge barely extending into the
Strait of Belle Isle. In the last 35 years,

only 1969 and 1979 have had a lower ice
extent at the end of January than that of
2003 (Canadian Ice Service, 2003).

IIP deployed its pre-season Ice
Reconnaissance Detachment (IRD) to
Newfoundland on 23 January. The intent
of the IRD was to monitor the progress of
the icebergs toward the Grand Banks and
help determine the start date for the 2003
season. A single reconnaissance flight
over the sea ice free waters of the offshore
branch of the Labrador Current between
49°N and 52°N found no icebergs. During
January, no icebergs passed south of
48°N; the average for the month is 3. On
13 January 2003, the Canadian Coast
Guard advised mariners that the Strait of
Belle Isle was not recommended for
transatlantic shipping due to sea ice
conditions.

February

February was a month of dramatic
change for both the air temperatures in
Newfoundland and the sea ice extent in the
waters east of the island. The first ten
days were much warmer than normal in
northern Newfoundland and southern
Labrador. The change began early in the
second week of February, when the
blocking high in the central north Atlantic
moved southward and the Icelandic low
strengthened. This brought cold arctic air
to Newfoundland and southern Labrador, a
condition that would persist for the next six
weeks. Colder to much colder than normal
conditions supported a rapid expansion of
the sea ice extent. Near mid-month, the
southern ice edge reached Cape
Bonavista, about a week later than
predicted (Canadian Ice Service, 2002).
During the first 19 days of February, the
southern ice extent moved from the vicinity
of the Strait of Belle Isle to Cape St.
Francis, the northern tip of the Avalon
Peninsula, a distance of 240 NM in the

17

north-south direction. Put another way, the
February sea ice extent went from well
below normal at the start of the month to
normal conditions by month's end.

No icebergs passed south of 48°N
during February; the average for the month
is 15.

March

Colder to much colder-than-normal
conditions in Newfoundland and Labrador

The passage of two potent low
pressure systems during the 27-30 March
period brought strong offshore winds that
pushed the sea ice eastward creating a
wide shore lead. Throughout this period,
the ice stream in the Labrador Current
continued to extend further south, and by
month's end its southern extent was at
44°40'N.

Five reconnaissance flights, three
by IIP in late February and two by CIS in
early March, found a small iceberg

persisted during the first three weeks of population between 48°N and 56°N, mostly

March, resulting in unabated sea ice located within the sea ice edge (Figure 19).

expansion during the period. The sea-ice

extent was near normal on 12

March, with the southern
extent immediately to the
south of St. John's, and the
eastern edge near the
northern entrance to Flemish
Pass. As predicted by the
Canadian Ice Service (2002),
the sea ice attained its
greatest areal extent for 2003
by the end of the third week of
March. On 19 March, the
eastern extent was in the
offshore branch of the
Labrador Current well into
Flemish Pass, while the
southernmost extent was 60

NM south of Cape Race. In
both cases, the ice edge
position was far beyond
normal and the pre-season
prediction. Figure 18 is a
natural color image from
MODIS, an instrument flown
on NASA's Terra satellite,
taken on 20 March 2003. In
the last week of March, the
sea ice began to retreat with
the exception of a narrow
stream of ice in the cold water
of the offshore branch of the
Labrador Current.

Figure 18. MODIS image from 20 March 2003 at 1455Z showing
the ice edge at its maximum extent for 2003. Image courtesy of
MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC.

18

Figure 19. Iceberg distribution on March 4, 2003 from the iceberg analysis issued by the CIS. There
are about 1 10 icebergs and radar targets shown on this plot, most within the sea-ice edge.

When IIP formally opened the 2003
season on 24 March, both the southern
and eastern LAKI (page 31) were between
the 75'^ percentile and the nnedian
according to Viekman and Baumer's
iceberg climatology classification (Viekman
and Baumer, 1995). As is common in the
beginning of an iceberg season, most of
the icebergs were within sea ice, so the
LAKI was defined primarily by the location
of the sea ice edge. Throughout the last
week of March the southern LAKI stretched
rapidly southward, as both the sea ice and
icebergs within it moved under the
influence of the Labrador Current. By
month's end, the southern LAKI position
was between the median and the 25""
percentile while the eastern limit was
between the 75'^ percentile and the
median.

During March, an estimated 84
icebergs drifted south of 48°N, which is
above the month's average of 61 .

April

Persistent offshore winds kept the
main ice pack offshore for the entire
month, but the retreat was slowed
somewhat owing to colder than normal air
temperatures in Newfoundland and
southern Labrador during the first three
weeks. Indeed, sea ice persisted in the
northern reaches of Flemish Pass until the
last few days of April. By month's end, the
southern sea ice extent was at the latitude
of Cape Freels, about 40 NM south of its
normal position for the date. The eastern
extent was about 100 NM east of its
normal position due to the persistent
offshore winds.

19

The LAKI continued to expand in
early April, and by mid month (page 33) the
southern limit was between the 25th
percentile and the extreme and the east
was between the median and the 25th
percentile. For the remainder of April the
LAKI remained in approximately the same
position, with the southern LAKI position
near the 25th percentile and the eastern
limit at the median.

The easternmost estimated iceberg
position for the year was at 45°08.4' N and
43°20.0' W on 19 April 2003. In April, 263
icebergs passed south of 48°N, over twice
the April monthly average of 121 icebergs.

May

With the exception of the third week,
Newfoundland and southern Labrador
experienced near normal air temperatures
in May, resulting in a normal retreat of the
sea ice (Canadian Ice Service, 2003). The
anomalous temperatures in the third week
were mixed with respect to location, with
St. John's experiencing slightly lower than
normal temperatures and northern
Newfoundland and southern Labrador
warmer than normal conditions.

During the first week of the month,
the offshore winds that prevailed in May
continued, keeping the main ice pack well
off shore. This changed dramatically in the
middle of the month with the passage of a
intense low pressure system on 11-13
May. This storm brought strong (-35 kt)
east winds to the region, packing the
remaining ice against Newfoundland's
Northern Arm and southern Labrador
coast. By the last week of May, the
southern ice edge had retreated to the
Strait of Belle Isle, which is near normal.

By mid May, the southern LAKI
moved southward to a position between
the 25th percentile and the extreme for the

date, while the eastern limit remained near
the median. Both the southern and eastern
LAKI remained stable for the remainder of
the month. Although the day to day
numbers fluctuate somewhat due to
reconnaissance and predicted iceberg
melt, throughout most of May IIP was
tracking a steady population of
approximately 250 icebergs south of 48°N.

On 5 May, the IIP reconnaissance
airplane dropped a satellite-tracked beacon
on a 250 m by 100 m fragment of an ice
island located at 46°52.4' N, 47°56.6' W.
The 1 3 day iceberg track was used to test
HP's iceberg drift model (Appendix D).

May was the busiest month of the
2003 iceberg season with 494 icebergs
estimated to have passed south of 48°N,
over three times the monthly average of
147.

On 20 May, the easternmost iceberg
seen during the 2003 ice season was
found by IIP aerial reconnaissance at
47°52.2' N, 44°40.0' W. May was also the
month of the southernmost sighted and
estimated icebergs, both for the same
iceberg. On the 16th it was found at
40°16.2' N and 49°36.0' W by a merchant
vessel. Five days later, on the 21st, MP's
drift model estimated it to have reached
39°18.6' N and 48°47.4' W.

June

June was a month of remarkable
change in the iceberg conditions of east
Newfoundland waters. At the month's
outset, there was no significant sea ice
south of 52°N, and the southern ice edge
had begun its northward retreat up the
Labrador coast. Because of the absence
of sea ice in the Strait of Belle Isle, it was
again recommended for transatlantic
vessels beginning on June 3, 2003,
although there were numerous icebergs in

20

the eastern approaches and in the strait
itself. The retreat of the sea ice edge was
at a normal rate at first, but by mid month it
was a week ahead of normal.

The month began with a formidable
iceberg population of nearly 250 icebergs
south of 48°N. However, during the next
two weeks, seasonal warming began to
take its toll. By mid month, the southern
LAKI retreated northward over 60 NM, and
the eastern limits moved westward about
70 NM. On 15 June, the southern limit was
near the 25th percentile for the date, while
the eastern limit was between the median
and the 75th percentile (page 37). More
importantly, the number of icebergs south
of 48°N declined precipitously to fewer
than 100 icebergs. During the second half
of June this population declined even
further, reaching 20 on 30 June. On this
date there was one iceberg holding the
southern LAKI at 42°N; however, the
closest iceberg was nearly 240 NM to the
north (page 38). The eastern LAKI at the
time was between the 75th percentile and
the median.

In June, Ice Patrol estimated that 76
icebergs passed south of 48°N, slightly
below the monthly average of 85.

July

July brought Ice Patrol's 2003 ice
season to its finish. On 1 July, there were
22 icebergs and a single growler south of
48°N, most of which were north of 46°N.
The iceberg season closed on 17 July with
nine icebergs between 47°N and 48°N and
very few immediately to the north. When
the ice season closed, the southern LAKI
was between the minimum and the 75th
percentile, while the eastern limit was at
the 75th percentile.

31. Ice Patrol's last 2003 ice
reconnaissance detachment returned from
Newfoundland on 13 July. Sea ice
departed Labrador's coast by 6 July, about
two weeks earlier than the norm.

Summary

With 927 icebergs estimated to have
passed south of 48°N, the 2003 iceberg
season falls into the extreme category
(>600 icebergs) as defined by Trivers
(1994). On the other hand, the 116-day
season length places 2003 into the lower
end of the average classification (105 to
180 days). According to the NSSI
proposed by Futch and Murphy (2002), the
2003 index was 2.70, which places it in the
moderate category.

Icebergs arrived at 48°N in late
February, but early season indications,
such as the later than normal arrival of sea
ice in east Newfoundland waters and the
low early season iceberg counts,
suggested 2003 would be a light to
average iceberg season. The explosive
sea ice growth in March (Figure 20) and
the extraordinarily large iceberg counts in
April and May changed this notion
radically. Sea ice attained its maximum
areal extent at the end of the third week of
March, with the southern ice edge
approximately 60 NM south of Cape Race
and a narrow stream of ice in the offshore
branch of the Labrador Current well into
Flemish Pass, far south of its normal
position.

Despite the vast mid-March ice
extent, the 2003 Total Accumulated Ice
Coverage (CIS, 2003), calculated by
summing the ocean area covered by sea
ice for all the weeks of the season, was
less than normal.

Ten icebergs passed south of 48°N In many respects, 2003 was similar

during July. The average for the month is to the 2002 iceberg season. In both years,

21

the number of icebergs estimated to have
moved south of 48°N put the year in the
extreme category, but, according to the
length of season criterion, each year was
classified as average. The NSSI for 2003
was 2.70 while the 2002 index was 2.80;
both in the moderate NSSI rating category.
For brief periods, the southern LAKI during
both years was south of 40°N. Both had
winter (December through March) North

Atlantic Oscillation Indices that were
weakly positive, 0.20 in 2003 and 0.76 in
2002 (Hurrell, 2004). There was one
significant difference between the two
years. For most of 2002, the eastern LAKI
was farther east than normal, and during
part of June was near the eastern extreme.
On the other hand, the 2003 eastern limit
hovered at or less than the median for the
entire ice season.

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Figure 20. Comparison of 2002/2003 weekly coverage of sea ice in East Newfoundland waters with
normal. (Canadian Ice Service, 2003).

22

References

Canadian Ice Service, 2000. Sea Ice Climatic Atlas. East Coast of Canada, 1971-2000.
Canadian Ice Service, 373 Sussex Drive Block E-3, LaSalle Academy, Ottawa,
ON, Canada K1A 0H3, 151 pp.

Canadian Ice Service, 2002. Seasonal Outlook, Gulf of St. Lawrence and East

Newfoundland Waters, Winter 2002-2003. Unpublished Manuscript, Canadian Ice
Service, 373 Sussex Drive, E-3, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3, 21 pp.

Canadian Ice Service, 2003. Seasonal Summary for Eastern Canadian Waters, Winter
2002-2003. Unpublished Manuscript, Canadian Ice Service, 373 Sussex Drive,
Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3, 18 pp.

Climate Prediction Center, 2004. National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
http://www. cpc. ncep. noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/ecanada_
30temp.html (27 February 2004).

Desjardins, Luc, 2002. Long Range Forecast 2002-2003 Ice/Iceberg Season.
International Ice Patrol Annual Conference, 9 December 2002.

Futch, V. and D. L. Murphy, 2002. Season Severity by Three Variable Index: LAKI Area,
Length of Season, Iceberg Population below 48°N. Appendix E in: Report of the
International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, Bulletin No. 88, 2002.

Hurrell, J., 2003. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Indices Information. National Center
for Atmospheric Research.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edU/~jhurrell/nao.stat.winter.html#winter. (16 March 2004).

International Ice Patrol, 2004. International Ice Patrol Iceberg Counts 1900 to 2003.
http://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/General/icebergs.shtml (27 February 2004).

Trivers, G., 1994. International Ice Patrol's Iceberg Season Severity. App. C in: Report
of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, Bulletin No. 80, 1994 Season,
CG-1 88-49, International Ice Patrol, 1082 Shennecossett Road, Groton, CT
06340-6096, 49-59.

Viekman, B. E. and K. D. Baumer, 1995. International Ice Patrol Iceberg Limits

Climatology (1975-1995), Technical Report 95-03, International Ice Patrol, 1082
Shennecossett Road, Groton, CT 06340-6096, 20 pp.

23

Monthly Sea Ice Charts

Canadian Ice Service
Colour Code

fee coverage in tenths

fee Thicker Than 15 cm

open or oergy waier
(less Ihon l/lO)

1 10 3/10
4 to 6/10
7 to 8/10

9 to 10/10

fast ice
tani tec - 15 cm or less
less than 10 cm (new ice)

10 to 15 cm (grey ice>

Pre

domir

*

Ok

f/ce

1 10 4/10
510 10/10

Reprinted with permission of the Canadian Ice Service.

24

25

CO--

ICE ANALYSIS
ANALYSE DE GLACE

NE Newfoundland Waters
Eaux de Terre-Neuve Nord-Est

V1800Z

15^EB/FEy^003_

BASED ON/BASEE SUH:

RECON:
RADARSAT: NIL

NOAA: 1 5 FEB/FEV 151 3Z

NORTH OF/NORD DE 5100N

CsnnaniiMTOUMQA
aivwcNMaiBJTCAwmfc ■

SOW

N^9±:

234
7T4

<— ! — t— i — I— t-

Pl^

1 26

5jtl

1 44

5 41

1 1 1 1 1-^

50W

26

NOTE: CIS did not produce an ice chart for NE Newfoundland waters on thiis date.

raw

ICEANAUrSIS
ANALYSE DE GLACE

East Newfoundland Waters
Eaux da 'fena-NeuvB est

VIKXIZ

15 MAR/MAR 2003

BASED ON/BASEESUR:

RECON:

RAOARSAn 1EMAR10Z
NOf/DEMN

NOAA: MAINiy CLOUDY

PUnOTNUAGEUX

8SMI16MAR12Z

WW

SSUL

27

NOTE-. CIS did not produce an ice chart for NE Newfoundland waters on this date.

ICE ANALYSIS
an&iyc;f HE GLACE

East Newfoundland Waters
Eaux de Terrp-Neuve est

V 1800Z

it^ APR/AVR 2003

BASED ON/BASEE SUR.
RECON: 1 4 APRWVR 2003

RADARSAT; 15 APR/AVR 1010Z
COTE DU LABRADOR COAST
NCAA; 16 APR/AVR

^/lAlNLY CLOUDY/PLUTOT NUAGEUX

CGAH *50

«X«.^«ATt«A^nF7. ^^^^_^^

28

29

Biweekly Iceberg Charts

30

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5 5 CQ§M

OL < Q OC liJ
(9 K ZOO.

31

32

33

I fell

S zoo.

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Acknowledgements

Commander, Intemational Ice Patrol acknowledges the assistance and
information provided by:

Canadian Coast Guard

Canadian Forces

Canadian Ice Service

Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada

National Ice Center

National Weather Service

Nav Canada Flight Services

U. S. Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City

U. S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Command Center

U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Staff

U. S. Coast Guard Automated Merchant Vessel Emergency Response System

U. S. Coast Guard Communications Area Master Station Atlantic

U. S. Coast Guard Operations Systems Center

U. S. Coast Guard Research and Development Center

U. S. Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center

U. S. Naval Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

It is important to recognize the outstanding efforts of the personnel at the
International Ice Patrol:

CDR R. L. Desh
CDR M. R. Hicks
LCDR S. D. Rogerson
Dr. D. L. Murphy
Mr. G. F. Wright
LCDR L. K. Mack
LT S. A. Stoermer
LTJG N. A. Jarboe
MSTCS V. L. Fogt
MST1 D. L. Alexander
YN1 T. J. DeVall

MST1 E.

W. Thompson

MST1 T.

T. Krein

MST2J.

P. Carew

MST2 J.

Dale

MST2D

A. Jolty

MST3 B.

H. Grebe

MST3E

P. Silman

MST3D

N. Brown

MST3A

L. Rodgers

MST3J.

E. Hutcherson

MST3J.

P. Buehner

International Ice Patrol staff produced this report using Microsoft® Word 2000 and Excel 2000.

41

Appendix A

Nations Currently Supporting International Ice Patrol

Belgium

Greece

Poland

Canada

HI

Italy

Spain

Denmark

Japan

Sweden

Finland

France

Netherlands

Norway

United Kingdom

United States of
America

Germany

Panama

•

«v*»;*».

•

42

Appendix B

Ship Reports

Ships Reporting Bv Flag Reports

Ships Reporting Bv Flag

Rgpgrts

ANTIGUA & BARBUDA

BBC ECUADOR

CAMBODIA

THEKLA

CAPTAIN WAEL

BAHAMAS ^

^ 1

AEGEAN SEA

1

AEGEN SPIRIT

14

ATLANTIC CARTIER

13

BLACK SWAN

5

DAVIKEN

1

GREEN ARCTIC

2

GULF NOMAD

8

HUAL TRITON

1

IBIS ARROW

1

JAEGER ARROW

1

JOH GORTHON

1

JUNIPER

1

MAYON SPIRIT

19

PELICAN ARROW

4

SOTRA SPIRIT

46

STENA CONFIDENCE

1

SUN CLAUDIA

1

TECAM SEA

1

VANCOUVER SPIRIT

3

BERMUDA

a

CANMAR COURAGE

4

CANMAR FORTUNE

6

CANMAR GLORY

1

CANMAR VALOUR

23

CANMAR VICTORY

2

CAST POWER

2

MARGIT GORTHON

1

CANADA _

*■

ALGOFAX

8

ANN HARVEY

8

ARCTIC

2

ATLANTIC AIRWAYS

22

ATLANTIC PURSUIT

3

CAPE BONAVISTA LIGHTHOUSE

3

CAPE RACE LIGHTHOUSE

7

DES GROSEILLIERS

6

GAME II

1

GRAND BARON

1

GREENWHICH MAERSK

3

HENRY LARSON

1

JACQUES DESGAGNES

3

KOMETIK

12

LEONARD J. COWLEY

4

MAERSK BONAVISTA

1

MATTEA

69

NORTHERN WHALE

1

OOCL BELGIUM

1

PIERRE RADISSON

4

PROVINCIAL AIRWAYS

43

SHAWINIGAN

21

SIR WILFRED GRENFELL

1

SUMMERSIDE

1

TERRY FOX

2

TUKTU

12

TWILLINGATE LIGHTHOUSE

27

VINLAND

1

43

Ships Reporting Bv Flag

Rgpgrts

Ships Reporting Bv Flag

Reports

CAYMAN ISLANDS ^"^ «

LIKON

11

PARNASSOS

5

PILION

4

STOLT ACHIEVEMENT

5

CYPRUS

1 1

APEX

4

ARISTIDIS D

1

CATA PILAR

2

CINNAMON

2

FRIO LONDON

1

INDEPENDENT TRADER

1

ISADORA

8

ISNES

17

PEARLMAR

8

PUMPURI

1

STRANGE ATTRACTOR

2

TASSOS N

1

TEGESOS

1

DENMARK

OLGA MAERSK

FINLAND

BIRKA FOREST

FRANCE

MARION DUFRESNE

ESTONIA

^■"

ANDVARI

1

TAURUS

1

15

n

GREECE

1^

AMAZON GLADIATOR

7

AQUAGRACE

1

CAP DIAMANT

1

CAP GEORGES

66

CAP JEAN

4

CAP ROMUALD

16

MAKRONISSOS

1

MARATHON

9

MILO

7

MONALISA

1

OLYMPIC MENTOR

10

SPYROS

8

STEMNITSA

7

TALISMAN

1

HONG KONG

t 1

CASHIN

1

FEDERAL HUDSON

1

FEDERAL PROGRESS

1

FULL COMFORT

1

OCEAN FAVOUR

6

OOCL CANADA

1

SAGA SKY

3

ICELAND

SUNNA

ISRAEL

ZIM CALIFORNIA

ITALY

d

GRANDE SPAGNA

9

ISOLA VERDE

2

SVART FALK

14

44

Ships Reporting Bv Flag Reports

Ships Reporting Bv Flag RgportS

JAMAICA

LAMAZON

KOREA (SOUTH)

SABINA

LATVIA

ERLA

1

^^/.

♦

^.

LIBERIA

w

ARCTURUS

3

ASOPOS

2

BERING SEA

2

CANADA SENATOR

1

CRUDE PRINCESS

4

DJANET

2

DUNDEE

4

HELENA OLDENDORFF

23

LIELUPE

1

LUCKY TRANSPORTER

1

LYDIA OLDENORFF

3

MSC BOSTON

15

NORDIC BLOSSOM

1

OBO VENTURE

1

ORION HIGHWAY

9

P&O NEDLLOYD MAIRANGI

1

REGINA OLDENDORFF

4

SANKO QUALITY

2

ST. PETERSBURG SENATOR

8

STOLT ASPIRATION

10

TRIBUTE

5

VOYAGER

10

LITHUANIA

U

KAPITONAS A. LUCKA

11

KAPITONAS MARCINKUS

1

KAPITONAS STULPINAS

6

LITHUANIA cont.

SVILAS

12

MALTA

■

BALI SEA

1

BERING SEA

2

BREGEN

1

ENDEAVOR

1

GREEN SUMMER

5

JOHNNY K

2

KAPITAN ZHURAVLYOV

1

KING A

2

LATGALE

9

LIANO

6

LYKES RUNNER

4

MARGARA

5

MERIOM JOY

2

MOSTOLES

1

PILICA

1

TROGIR

2

ZIM CALIFORNIA

2

MARSHALL ISLANDS

#^

AMAZON

2

EURO SUN

1

LAKE ERIE

1

LAKE MICHIGAN

3

LAKE ONTARIO

5

LAKE SUPERIOR

28

YARMOUTH

7

YELLOWKNIFE

1

ZIEMIA GORNOSLASKA

6

ZIEMIA LODZKA

11

NETHERLANDS

SSi

ARION

1

P&O NEDLLOYD AUCKLAND

3

45

Ships Reporting Bv Flag RgPOrtS

Ships Reporting Bv Flag

Reports

NETHERLANDS cont.

NORWAY cont.

VLISTBORG

TRINIDAD

20

1

^ ^

•,',•

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

1

■ 1

IVER EXCEL

2

JO ASK

4

JO LIND

6

LYNBAANSGRACHT

MARINUS GREEN

PELAGIA

SCHIPPERSGRACHT

SINGELGRACHT

SNOEKGRACHT

Jl_

NORWAY 3.1^

BALBOA

3

BANASTAR

1

BERGE ARCTIC

62

BERGENORD*

70

BERTHIA

2

BOW CENTURY

3

LANGENES

1

MARINETTE

22

MENOMINEE

20

NCC ASIR

6

ODIN EXPLORER

2

PROSPECT

1

SIBOTI

1

SPAR GARNET

1

SPAR THREE

3

STAR DIEPPE

2

STAR FUJI

1

STAR SKOGANGER

40

TAIKO

1

TEEKAY FAIR

8

TEEKAY FOUNTAIN

4

TOFTON

15

NORWEGIAN INT. REGISTER

^^

EMMA

1

GREEN COOLER

2

D

PANAMA

U|

AURORAL ACE

BUJIN

C.S. QUEEN

CAPE PAMPAS

CO-OP PHOENIX

FEDERAL SUMIDA

FIVOS

GECO SEARCHER

HANG TA

IKAN BELIAK

KENT RELIANT

LOWLANDS YARRA

MERIDIAN ACE

MEXICAN REEFER

MOL THAMES 1

3

NICON FRONTIER

NORD ACE

NORDGLIMT

NORTHSEA

PRIDE 1

0

RED CHERRY ;

SILVERMAR

SPAR TWO

SPICA 1

STOLT DORSET

SUPER RUBIN

WELSH VENTURE '

46

Ships Reporting Bv Flag Reports

Ships Reporting Bv Flag RgpgrtS

PHILIPPINES

STAR SAVANNAH

RUSSIA

ZAPOLYARYE

SWITZERLAND

GENERAL GUISAN

THAILAND

39

14

POLAND

1 1

ZIEMIACHELMINSKA

1

ZIEMIA TARNOWSKA

1

SINGAPORE

n

CSK GRANDEUR

8

ELISABETH MAERSK

27

EMILIE MAERSK

9

HSH UBIN

2

IKAN BELIAK

10

JULIA

4

STAR IKEBANA

8

STAR SIRANGER

4

ST. VINCENT

"■}

REGINA

8

RHONE

8

SWEDEN

J

ATLANTIC COMPANION

8

GLORY CREDO

2

MARIA GORTHON

2

TURKEY ^

C-

CELINE-1

3

HACI HASAN YARDIM

1

UKRAINE

1

MAKEEVKA

1

UNITED KINGDOM 3n l^

BRITISH HUNTER

1

CELTIC TERRIER

1

CIELO Dl BISCAGLIA

4

GOSPORT MAERSK

6

JANET-C

5

JILL-C

14

LIAC

3

LYKES AMBASSADOR

1

MARIA KNUTSEN

2

=^

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

^=

GEYSIR

32

GUS W. DARNELL

1

MAERSK GEORGIA

5

MAERSK VIRGINIA

2

NATIONAL ICE CENTER

4

UNKNOWN

ANY SHIP

WHATS HAPPENING

VANUATU

WISLANES

*DENOTES VESSEL PARTICIPATION
AWARD WINNER

62

TOLTECA

47

Appendix C

2003 Ice Chart Reception Project

MST2 Jonathan Dale
LT Scott Stoermer

During the 2003 ice season the
International Ice Patrol (IIP) requested that
mariners return ice charts received via high
frequency (HF) weather fax (WEFAX) while at
sea. The charts where then analyzed and
studied in an effort to gain a better
understanding of the reception quality as well
as geographic extent of dissemination of our
product.

IIP strives to continually improve the
quality of the product provided to the North
Atlantic mariner. In years past, IIP has
conducted similar surveys of WEFAX
reception. Through ongoing studies of our HF
product, we hope to gain a better understanding
of its use, its quality and how it might be
improved.

The ice chart is a major navigational aid
used and trusted by many North Atlantic
mariners. The chart depicts the Limit of All
Known Ice (LAKI) for mariners' use in voyage
planning as well as underway decisions
regarding ship tracking. It was requested that
the mariner return any charts received via
WEFAX, noting reception time, reception
location and frequency of receipt. IIP monitors
every ice chart broadcast from Groton with its
own HF receiver and WEFAX software.
Unfortunately, HP's position relative to the
transmitting antennae makes the reception,
more often that not, poor. Consequently, IIP
considers its HF reception capability as only a
check of the fact that the ice chart is being
transmitted, not its quality. So, IIP is more
interested in how the product is received by
vessels operating in the North Atlantic,

During the 2003 season, IIP received 82
ice charts from 14 different vessels (Table 1).

Ice charts from all over the Atlantic Ocean
where received. In an effort to gain better
understanding of HF propagation in our area of
responsibility, we narrowed the area of study to
the region bounded by 39°N, 52°N, 35°W and
64°W.

Based on the returned charts, the quality
of reception was divided into five categories as
shown in Figure 1 . Category 1 included charts
with the best reception. Category 2 represented
good reception, and Category 3 consisted of
charts with fair reception. Category 4 included
charts from which the date and LAKI were
barely readable and Category 5 reception
included charts considered useless to the
mariner. Figure 2 displays chart reception
position, frequency and quality.

REPORTING VESSELS

BERGE NORD

BLACK SWAN

CSK GRANDEUR SINGAPORE

FEDERAL HUDSON

KAPITONAS A LUCKA

LYDIA OLDENDORFF

MATTEA

OCEAN FAVOUR

OFFENBACH

P&O NEDLLOYD AUCKLAND

PEARL MAR

PRIDE

SEA LAND PERFORMANCE

STAR IKEBANA

STAR SAVANNAH

TOFTON

Table 1. Listing of vessels returning ice charts
in 2003.

48

1. Best Rcccnlidii

■:-(.-r*IAUDK-li>ICAMN)bMIICX I 1

»t*.r*ii lG^^mj* ivoawcT p~— T—
»■•■».,-(^:l'1«^■.■l'n<■i,^.■I1C I J

^^« tjC'lnciv:''© "^t — I—

ssissas

tfVtinn*vSi«ngMiaLWM4tfy(r« c* J

IwyfrWL-i-^-^j^r

2. Good Reception

1—1 I . n ill UJ ■"■---rr.:. -mit- -«.i a»^f ►.•.Cl^S,
-I . ' MW 1— i i— i4SW ,- *' "T "1 «IwT 1-"'35W'

' Ki Readable

-i-nn

_iawL_:^^— Jasw

5. Poor Reception

:Q CQ ut- NiK N!K

Figure 1. Ice Chart reception rating scale.

49

The data received by IIP shows that, of
all the ice charts received, 94% had at least the
LAKI and date readable. Assuming that the
sample of 82 charts received is fairly
representative of the larger population of HF
received charts, this level of usefulness is
promising. The data also shows that more than
53% of all ice charts were received on 9110
MHz (Table 2). The fact that the US Coast
Guard transmits the chart on the most used
frequency shows that the customer of the ice
chart finds the US transmission satisfactory.
The most used frequency found during this
survey differs from that found during the 2000
survey in which 12750 MHz ranked the
highest. Interestingly, the percentage of the
charts received at the 12 MHz frequency also
represented 53% of the sample (Dale and
Strong, 2000, p. 53)*. Based upon the
combined data for both studies, it can be
inferred that the higher frequencies generate a
better, more reliable product for the mariner.

This study, when considered in
conjunction with that of 2000, shows that the
HF WEFAX ice chart remains a viable and
trusted product dissemination method. Surveys

Percent Frequency

53.1%

9110 MHz

19.8%

12750 MHz

12.3%

6340 MHz

8.6%

4325 MHz

5%

7880 MHz

1.2%

Other

Table 2. Percentage of ice charts returned,
broken down by frequency.

of this nature, in addition to the customer
satisfaction survey planned for 2004, give the
Ice Patrol a real insight into customer feelings.
The Ice Patrol Customer Relations work group
stands ready to assist any and all Ice Patrol
customers with questions about products or
dissemination methods. Please do not hesitate
to contact us:

Commander

International Ice Patrol

Attn: Customer Relations

1082 Shennecossett Road

Groton, CT 06340

(860)441-2626

iipcomms@rdc.uscg.mil

* Dale, J. and C. Strong, 2000. 2000 Fax Chart Reception Project. Appendix Cm: Report of the International Ice

Patrol in the North Atlantic. Bulletin No. 86, 2000.

-^ "TJ

' 4+VHiT\AA^rVVV

COLOR KEY

BEST RECEPTION

GOOD RECEPTION

F.MR RECEPTION

LAKI & DATE

RF \n\BTF

POOR RECEPTION

NUMBER KEY

1 = 12750 MHZ

2 = 91 10 MHZ

3 = 7880 MHZ

4 = 6340 MHZ

5 = 4325 MHZ
6 = OTHER

Of all ice charts received
only 53 are depicted, in an

effort to study the ice
charts received in the IIP

area of responsibility.

jtt

_nTjL^^

^_^ Jt^f^t

jpnTu^^

^^Tu~v£-

jjTTuJi-^^

'jjj4-i^ ^fct^

jrnXuAA^^

7pffi5' ^

I-HIinnVr^

irjil-^^

'^ iPLn444n[T\^

- T

jIA4nM\M

'TTrrnK

jjinij^

jinr^XXX-

nn^niUJr^^

JlJnnJ-lX^

1

JjjLUp^^

HljA-J^^ ^

>

[ jjlH-w-^^

nrrr-B- '

HjjTTlU-^i^^

mTtt44- '

2

1

]TjTI^^

iiwrt4^^N-i~

<^(

\W

nTuQlM^

Figure 2. Distribution of ice charts within the analysis region.

50

Appendix D

Iceberg Drift Model Comparisons with Ice Island Position Data

MST3 Allie Rodgers
LT Scott Stoermer

Abstract

The analysis of 13 days of iceberg tracking data for the purposes of testing the drift
characteristics of the International Ice Patrol's iceberg drift and deterioration model is
presented. The data collection, methods and analysis are discussed. A historical
background section follows the project conclusions and briefly outlines the historical
aspects of Ice Patrol's iceberg marking and tracking techniques as well as Ice Islands.

Introduction

The iceBerg Analysis and Prediction System (BAPS) has been extensively tested over the
years to help ensure that the Canadian Ice Service and the International Ice Patrol (IIP) use the
best information possible to estimate iceberg drift and deterioration. The region of the North
Atlantic Ocean that IIP is concerned about is highly complex as the Gulf Stream (GS), Labrador
Current (LC) and North Atlantic Current (NAC) interact in a region of very shallow bathymetry.
Coupled with dynamic, often harsh weather, the intricacies of this ocean-atmosphere system make
its prediction very difficult and require IIP to constantly concern itself with the differences
between the actual ocean and the BAPS ocean.

The appearance of very large tabular icebergs in the region of the Grand Banks of
Newfoundland for the second consecutive year provided IIP with some unique opportunities
during the 2003 ice season. Most notably, IIP was able to deploy a Compact Air Launched Ice
Beacon (CALIB) and gather approximately two weeks of real-time iceberg position information
during the late spring. IIP's archive of the environmental forcing files used by BAPS provided
the means to test the model after the fact.

CALIB Data and Methods

The CALIB used by IIP during this experiment was provided by the Canadian Ice Service
and originally procured from METOCEAN. On May 5, 2003 (during Ice Reconnaissance
Detachment #7), CALIB #1 1247 was deployed onto an iceberg measuring approximately 250 m x
100 m in position 46.873°N/47.927°E (see photo collage on front cover and Figure 1). The
beacon was deployed from an altitude of 350 feet at approximately 150 knots indicated air speed
from the cargo ramp of a Coast Guard HC- 1 30H. Data was gathered via the ARGOS system until
18 May at which time the CALIB stopped transmitting for unknown reasons. Presumably, the
CALIB was lost to the ocean when the iceberg broke apart or rolled as it deteriorated.

Thirteen days of position data were gathered consisfing of 1 10 individual position fixes
(Figure 1). Each fix was placed in a confidence level category by ARGOS based on position fix
quality. ARGOS uses a fix quality of one through three with three designating the highest level
of confidence. For the comparison experiments conducted here, only the 57 highest quality fixes
(fix category 3) were used.

51

\

Sfl'iM 3;°w

— I .J ■ - ,j , , I — ■ , — •

SCiAl 48°W 4S°W

48''N tp

47''N

TART

45*" N ->'

CALIB Data
5-1 8 May 2003
13 Days

\

49^^

■<tr 2cr

dS'W

■nr ;cr

47Va

Figure 1. CALIB track.

Comparison Methods

BAPS is not truly intended to accurately model Ice Island shaped icebergs as they are rare
and represent a small fraction of the icebergs seen in the Grand Banks region. Additionally, the
above water height of Ice Islands is less than archetypical tabular icebergs which have
significantly higher freeboards as well as deeper drafts. Subsequently, the comparisons attempted
here were done with limited hope of high levels of correlation even when a very large, tabular
iceberg was modeled. Therefore, in order to test the model, many permutations were attempted
throughout this analysis. Table 1 details the tests performed. Basically, different iceberg shapes
and sizes were modeled using the What-If functionality of BAPS. What-If model runs permit the
user to alter virtually all of the model's parameters including iceberg size/shape, environmental
forcing data fields and model timeframes. In the case of this experiment, What-Ifs were run using
a 72-hour sliding window for each size/shape-forcing combination (Table 1 ). The 72-hour
window was used in order to avoid any errors associated with longer model runs but still maintain
a time frame allowing for response to changes in local forcing. The 72-hour window provided for
13 individual model runs per model permutation. The chosen sizes and shapes were based on the
size and shape of the actual iceberg and a hypothesis that a growler might present a good
representation (in the model) of real-world Ice Island drift. There were no modifications made to
the environmental forcing data except that, for certain permutations, a particular forcing was
switched off in order to determine the effect of wind or current alone.

52

Iceberg Size

Shape

Wind and Current

Wind Only

Current Only

Very Large

Tabular

X

X

X

Non-tabular

X

X

X

Growler

N/A

X

X

X

Table 1. What-lf model permutations conducted during this project.

Results

In general, the final positions of the What-If modeled icebergs were within 20 nautical
miles (NM) of the true position of the tracked Ice Island. The 20 NM threshold is interesting
because it represents the error circle radius presently used by Ice Patrol for an iceberg that has
been in the model for 3 days. From that perspective, it can be stated that the model is a
reasonable representation of the real ocean for the area being considered (on the Bank, away from
more complex regions near the tail). Operationally, this result provides IIP with good support for
the model error estimates currently employed in the system.

Counter-intuitively, the modeled very large tabular iceberg did not behave most like the
tracked Ice Island. The very large tabular was greatly affected by cunent and to a lesser degree
by the wind. In the case of the very large tabular drifted with wind and currents, the modeled
iceberg was only within 20 NM of the actual position following 42% of the model runs. When
the same iceberg was drifted with winds only, it was within 20 NM after 52% of the runs.
Examples of the model results for the very large are presented in Figure 2.

The growler modeled with no currents provided the most accurate representation of actual
Ice Island drift. Following 92% of the model runs, the wind-driven growler was within 20 NM of
the Ice Island's actual position. With currents and wind however, the resultant growler was only
42% accurate.

Figure 2. Model results from What-lfs drifting a very large tabular iceberg. The left panel displays the very large
drifted with winds and currents and the right displays drift with winds only. The blue symbols represent the modeled
iceberg while the brown represents actual Ice Island position. Note the growth of the error circle as time in the model
elapses from 1 day to 3 days (5 NM, 10 NM, 20 NM).

Figure 3 presents some examples of What-lf/growler results. While not surprising, this result is a
nice confirmation of the general assumption that Ice Island drift will tend to be dominated by
wind effects because of their relatively shallow draft.

53

Figure 3. Model results from What-lfs drifting a growler. The left pariel displays the very large drifted with wirids and
currents and the right displays drift with winds only. The green symbols represents the modeled iceberg while the
brown represents actual Ice Island position. Note the growth of the error circle as time in the model elapses from 1
day to 3 days (5 NM, 10 NM, 20 NM).

Conclusion

The accuracy of BAPS modeled iceberg drift was analyzed through the use of multiple
What-If model runs drifting various icebergs. The modeled growler forced by winds alone best
represented actual Ice Island drift. Additionally, it is of note that a large portion of the modeled
results were within HP's 20 NM (radius) error circle for three-day-old icebergs. This fact lends
credence to the present error circle defaults used within BAPS.

While this experiment is a good first attempt at producing some data for model ground-
truthing, it is not ideal given the drift characteristics of Ice Islands. For greater applicability, it
would be more ideal to track icebergs that are both more populous on the Grand Banks as well as
ones that BAPS is more suited to model. IIP has procured additional CALIBs for possible use
during the 2004 season and will attempt to place them on other, more typical targets.

Historical Background

Iceberg Marking and Tracking

The need to track the drift of icebergs in the vicinity of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland
has existed for many years. IIP has transitioned from the most rudimentary method of iceberg
tracking to some of the most advanced during its 90-i- year lifespan. Initially, the ships assigned
to Ice Patrol drifted with the southern most iceberg(s) and reported their position, via radio, to
warn shipping interests in the area. Currently, the Ice Patrol is able to monitor the position of
icebergs with satellite positioning technology. Within the spectrum from drift tracking to satelhte
data, the Coast Guard has tried some interesting methods.

The vessels of the Ice Patrol, each year, would search for icebergs, drift, and report
positions. As radio and navigation aid technology grew, ship-based reconnaissance data was used
to generate radio and text ice warnings. As reconnaissance ability grew with the application of
shipboard RADAR systems, the need to identify individual icebergs became necessary. Iceberg
marking with dye became a common procedure to facilitate consecutive identification of icebergs
and allow data on iceberg drift data to be collected (Figure 4). When the primary reconnaissance

54

tool shifted from surface to airborne assets, iceberg marking remained an important facet of the
scientific benefit of the North Atlantic Ice Service (Figure 5).

Figure 4. Ship-based iceberg marking. (Coast Guard Photograph)

Figure 5. Air-deploy of iceberg marking dye from Coast Guard HC-130 aircraft. (Coast Guard Photograph)

The scientific data available for iceberg tracking was further increased by remote
positioning technology currently including satellite positioning and communications technology.
The CALIB provides position data, via the Global Positioning System, and communicates its
position up to six times per day to a data collection system.

55

Ice Islands

The International Ice Patrol has monitored icebergs that drift south along the coast of
Labrador and into the Grand Banks of Newfoundland region since the sinking of the TITANIC in
April of 1912. The LC carries the icebergs that calve, or break away, from glaciers in Greenland
and northern Canada southward from Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. Several glaciers are capable of
producing icebergs that end their journey on the Grand Banks. Specifically, the Ward Hunt ice
shelf, the Humboldt Glacier, and the Petermann Glacier are likely sources of Ice Islands, as the
basin conditions seem to favor the production of large tabular icebergs with shallow draft (Robe,
1977).

As defined by Bowditch, an Ice Island is a piece of glacial ice that rises roughly 1 0 meters
above the ocean's surface and has an overall thickness of about 50 meters. Often, Ice Islands will
have a wave-like surface, appearing ribbed from the air. The surface area of an Ice Island can
range from a few thousand square meters to hundreds of square nautical miles. Thusly, Ice
Islands are not necessarily huge, in terms of surface area, but are unusually thin and flat-topped.

The detection and identification of Ice Islands has occurred during the last two years in the
region of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. Ice Islands that drift into the Grand Banks region
potentially pose a greater threat to shipping and the oil and gas industry than other icebergs. The
relatively thin drafts of Ice Islands allow them to drift into much shallower water than an iceberg
of similar mass but non-tabular shape.

The tabletops of Ice Islands present an excellent target for tags and other tracking devices.
The Canadian Ice Service has been using CALIBs to track very large icebergs and the ice sheet in
the northern reaches of the Labrador Sea for many years (Desjardins, personal communication).
During the 2003 ice season, IIP decided to attempt marking and tracking an iceberg for the
purposes of gathering data such that model testing could be done after the fact. Additionally,
since the skill set of actually hitting an iceberg with a tracking or marking device was last
employed in the 1980's, the successful tagging discussed here is a nice confirmafion that IIP can
sfill deploy instruments with the necessary precision.

References

Bowditch, N., American Practical Navigator, Pub. No. 9, 2002.

Desjardins, L., personal communication, 2003.

Robe. R., D. Maier, and R. Kollmeyer, Iceberg Deterioration, Nature, 267, 505-506, 1977.

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