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! WATERFOWL PRODUCTION

I IN NORTH AMERICA, 1955-71

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

Fish and Wildlife Service

Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife

Special Scientific Report-Wildlife No. 160

ents

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENTOF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife

AERIAL SURVEYS OF WATERFOWL PRODUCTION IN NORTH AMERICA, 1955-71

by

Charles J. Henny, David R. Anderson and Richard S. Pospahala

Migratory Bird Populations Station

Division of Wildlife Research

Laurel, Maryland

Special Scientific Report— Wildlife No. 160 Washington, D.C. 1972

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price 75 cents

Stock Number 2410-00342

CONTENTS

Page

Preface iv

Introduction 1

Survey development and techniques 1

Development 1

Techniques 3

General 3

Survey procedures 4

Air-ground survey 4

Reconstruction of files 5

Results 6

Southern Prairie Provinces 6

July pond counts 6

Sampling errors in the measurement of July ponds 7

Brood index (all species) 7

Brood size (all species) 10

Late nesting index (all species) H

Recruitment rate (all species) 12

Northern Canada and Northwest Territories 13

Brood index (all species) 13

Brood size (all species) 14

Late nesting index (all species) 15

North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana 15

July pond counts 15

Brood index (all species) 15

Brood size (all species) 15

Late nesting index (all species) 15

Summary 16

Acknowledgments 16

References 17

Appendices 18

iii

PREFACE

This report, as the title implies, summarizes July waterfowl production survey data collected by personnel of the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife and other cooperating agencies during the 1955-71 period. In recent years the survey has been used to monitor waterfowl populations on approximately 855,700 square miles of the North American breeding range. To enable the report to be timely, analysis and discussion are kept to a minimum, although some obvious relationships are described. Summaries of basic information collected during the survey are presented in tabular form in the Appendices. Appendix A refers to the data obtained in the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada; Appendix B, northern Prairie Provinces and the Northwest Territories; Appendix C, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana; Appendix D, Minnesota; and Appendix E, northwestern Ontario.

This and a companion report (Pospahala et al., in prep.) on the May Breeding Ground Survey were prepared because information collected annually on the size, distribution and production of North American waterfowl populations had never been summarized in a comparable manner. Prior to this date, the information was published annually in the Bureau's "Waterfowl Status Reports" (Special Scientific Report -Wildlife). A close review of the published survey statistics indicated that no two sets of the same data were in agreement. The discrepancies were partially the result of annual updates and corrections. As a part of the comprehensive Mallard Study being conducted by the staff of the Migratory Bird Populations Station, all breeding ground survey data were reconstructed. Since these data are not available for machine processing, this report is to serve as a vehicle to make these data available as future reference material to research and management biologists throughout North America. Also, it is hoped that the data presented here will stimulate population ecologists and systems ecologists from other disciplines to become more interested in the dynamics of waterfowl populations.

Cover photo: Type V prairie pothole in late summer. (By Grady Mann, Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife)

iv

AERIAL SURVEYS OF WATERFOWL PRODUCTION IN NORTH AMERICA, 1955-71

By Charles J. Henny, David R. Anderson, and Richard S. Pospahala

Migratory Bird Populations Station

Division of Wildlife Research

Laurel, Maryland

The annual sporting harvest of waterfowl in North America significantly affects the annual mortality rate of continental waterfowl populations (Hickey, 1952; Geis, 1963). This fact, operating in conjunction with unstable habitat conditions in the most important por- tions of the waterfowl breeding grounds, creates one of the most dynamic game animal management situations known. In order to ensure perpetuation and equitable use of the resource, desired harvest levels must be de- termined on an annual basis. Therefore, to monitor the status of the continental water- fowl population the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife, in cooperation with the Canadian Wildlife Service and various Provincial wild- life management agencies, conducts two aerial surveys on the major waterfowl breeding grounds in North America each year (Crissey, 1957). The first, conducted during May and early June, is a census of waterfowl breeding populations; the second, conducted over the same transects in July, is a production survey. Historically, these surveys have been used to monitor the annual status of the continental waterfowl population, and the information col- lected has been of paramount importance in

the setting of annual waterfowl regulations (see discussion by Geis et al„ 1969). In addi- tion to providing estimates of waterfowl num- bers present on the breeding grounds each year, these surveys provide data on annual habitat conditions and indexes to expected production. Information collected also satis- fies, in part, an ever-increasing demand for a historical data base from which to study waterfowl population ecology.

Recently, Pospahala et al. (in prep.) sum- marized the data obtained from the May Breed- ing Ground Survey for the 1955-71 period. Our report is a companion report presenting the results of the July Production Survey for the same time period. The purpose of this report is to provide basic information to individuals either directly or indirectly involved in water- fowl management and research, and to rec- oncile discrepancies in previously published material relating to this survey. The July Production Survey statistics presented in this report supersede all information previously published (primarily in Waterfowl Status Reports).

SURVEY DEVELOPMENT AND TECHNIQUES

Development

Aerial surveys in May were initiated on an experimental basis in 1947 when aircraft and

pilots first became available for such work, and the July aerial surveys were begun in 1950. Williams (1948) first established that aerial waterfowl surveys were sufficient to

adequately determine the annual status of the waterfowl resource. The breeding range was divided into strata on the basis of habitat type, habitat stability, and waterfowl nesting density for sampling purposes. Stewart et al. (1958:364) discussed the allocation of sampling units.

Initially, waterfowl breeding ground surveys were concentrated in the southern portions of the Prairie Provinces of Canada. Waterfowl populations in three strata in southern Alberta (74,612 square miles), five strata in southern Saskatchewan (113,220 square miles), and two strata in southern Manitoba (38,728 square miles) have been sampled on a comparable

basis annually since 1955 (fig. 1). Four addi- tional strata including 222,030 square miles in the northern portions of the Prairie Pro- vinces were added in 1959 and 1960, and in 1966, five strata in the Northwest Territories (195,513 square miles) were included. July Production Surveys were initiated in North Dakota in 1958, and in South Dakota in 1959; however, procedures employed in these first surveys were not consistent with those in other surveyed areas. Consequently, data collected for the Dakotas prior to 1966 are not pre- sented. Beginning in 1966, the Dakotas and Montana are included, adding an additional 209,893 square miles of waterfowl habitat to the survey. Portions of Ontario which were

Figure 1. -Strata for aerial surveys of waterfowl breeding grounds.

surveyed on an experimental basis for 4 years in the early 1960's are also included.

Since 1966, approximately 855,700 square miles of the North American waterfowl breed- ing range have been sampled annually on an operational basis by Bureau personnel and other cooperators during the July Production Survey. A description of the habitat in each stratum is discussed in the companion report by Pospahala et al. (in prep.). The present surveys do not sample all of the waterfowl breeding grounds in North America, but prob- ably provide sufficient information for most management decisions. Several State conser- vation organizations provide additional insight into production in areas not surveyed by the standard July Production Survey. Similarly, several of the Provinces have surveys; how- ever, this report is limited to the discussion of data obtained from the Bureau survey (see Waterfowl Status Reports for data collected by States and Provinces).

Techniques

GENERAL

During the July Production Survey, estimates are made of the following waterfowl and habitat conditions: (1) the number of Class I, Class II, and Class III broods (Gollop and Marshall, 1954), regardless of species; (2) the average number of ducklings in Class II and III broods; (3) the number of paired and single (male and female) ducks by species; and (4) the number of ponds. Information on the numbers of pairs and singles in breeding areas during July that have not moved to moulting areas is used as an indicator of the comparative amount of re- nesting underway. The timing of the July Pro- duction Survey is determined by the date on which information must be available for the U.S. regulations meetings, which occur in early August. Therefore, not all young ha<ve been hatched at the time field work is termi- nated on about July 25 each year. Consequently, an index to the number of young produced can- not be calculated directly. Rather, the approach taken is to obtain indexes relating to factors which either affect or reflect current produc-

tion success when compared to similar data collected during prior years.

The July Production Survey, like the com- panion May Breeding Ground Survey, is con- ducted from aircraft flying 100 to 200 feet above the ground along linear routes or "transects." The transects are divided into segments 18 miles long for convenience in summarizing data. The survey crew consists of one person acting as a pilot-navigator- observer, and another as an observer. Each person records waterfowl data (broods and single and paired adults by species) from a strip one-sixteenth mile wide (110 yards) on his side of the aircraft. One member of the crew, usually the observer, counts ponds on one side of the aircraft for a distance of one- eighth mile (220 yards). Information collected during the survey is recorded and transcribed to data forms (flight sheets) at the end of the day. Unidentified pairs and singles are allo- cated among the identified in direct proportion to the species and categories of the observed birds. Sampling intensities vary greatly among the various strata that have been defined on the basis of habitat type, habitat stability, and waterfowl nesting density. Strata in the prime waterfowl habitat in the southern portions of the Prairie Provinces of Canada range in size from approximately 11,000 to 38,000 square miles. The median date for conducting the survey during the past 17 years has been July 12-15.

Forecasting production and the subsequent fall flights of waterfowl are difficult, but Geis et al. (1969) have reported on techniques combining data collected from the two breed- ing ground surveys in past years. A check is available on the fall flight prediction, although the information is not available until the fol- lowing year. Age ratios in the harvest can be adjusted for differential vulnerability to hunting pressure to yield the age ratio in the preseason population (a measure of produc- tion) (Bellrose et al., 1961; 435; Kaczynski and Geis, 1961). In this procedure we utilize information collected during the Waterfowl Harvest Survey, Wing-Collection Survey, pre- season banding program, and May Breeding Ground Survey. Presently, this analysis is performed annually for mallards (Anas

platyrhynchos) only. Revised annual production estimates for mallards, and estimates for other species, are not available at this time, be- cause the data are being reconstructed for use in the Mallard Study (see Anderson andHenny, 1972). Rather than present recruitment rate estimates for each year that may be in error, no recruitment rate information obtained from age ratios in the kill adjusted for differential vulnerability will be presented.

SURVEY PROCEDURES

Procedures for conducting aerial waterfowl surveys have been discussed by Crissey (1957) and summarized by Stewart et al. (1958). Details of the current survey instructions are contained in the Bureau's "Standard procedures for waterfowl population and habitat surveys, Revised 1969." Diem and Lu (1960) and Martinson and Kaczynski (1967) discuss many of the problems associated with surveys of this type, although the latter study primarily con- cerns adjustments of aerial data available only for the May Breeding Ground Survey. Most of the associated problems relate to observation difficulties associated with habitat, water conditions, time of day, weather, and differences in observer capability. In general, adjustments to July Production Survey data

for these nuances are not possible at this time. Since the appearance of early work on sampling error associated with aerial surveys (see Stewart et al., 1958), the approach has changed and more recent techniques are presented by Pospahala et al. (in prep.).

AIR-GROUND SURVEY

All ducks and broods on the transects can- not be seen from the air; thus, adjustment factors for visibility from the air are de- sirable. It is well known that variation in the proportion of birds seen is related to species characteristics, cover, density of birds, phenology, seasonal changes in water levels, and changes in crew members. Furthermore, brood data represent an aggregate estimate of all species present; species-specific dif- ferences are not measured. Average brood size information may vary tremendously from location to location, depending upon local con- ditions, but also depending upon the species composition of the breeding ducks present. Therefore, a summary of the species compo- sition of the ducks nesting in the southern portions of the Prairie Provinces, the Dakotas, and Montana, as determined from the May Survey, is presented in table 1.

Table 1	. — Average ranking	of the	10 most common bree	^ding species of ducks in the southern portions of Alberta,	Saskatchewan, and Manitoba,
	and in Montana,	and the	> Dakotas (from Pospahala	et al . , in prep . ) .
					Location
Rank	Alberta (1955-71)	Saskatchewan (1955-71)	Manitoba (1955-71)	Montana (1965-71)	Dakotas (1960-71)
1	Mallard	26.0	Mallard	30.8	Mallard	25.8	Mallard	26.7	Blue-winged Teal	27-3
2	Pintail	19.3	Pintail	19.2	Blue-winged Teal	25.1	Pintail	18. 9	Pintail	18.0
3	Blue-winged Teal	11.3	Blue-winged Teal	15-9	Scaup	13-0	American Widgeon	13.9	Mallard	17.9
h	American Widgeon	10.8	American Widgeon	6.7	Pintail	8.2	Blue-winged Teal	12.7	Gadwall	13-5
5	Scaup	7.0	Scaup	6.3	Redhead	5.5	Gadwall	10.1	Shoveler	8.5
6	Shoveler	5.8	Shoveler	5.3	American Widgeon	1..7	Green-winged Teal	6.k	Redhead	5.0
7	Gadwall	5.5	Oadwall	It. 5	Ruddy Duck	U. 6	Shoveler	5.1	Ruddy Duck	3.1.
8	Green-winged Teal	5-5	Green-winged Teal	k.2	Green-winged Teal	3.6	Scaup	3.1	American Widgeon	2.2
9	Redhead	2-9	Redhead	2.9	Shoveler	3.1.	Ruddy Duck	1.1.	Green-winged Teal	1.8
10	Ruddy Duck	2.5	Ruddy Duck	2.0	Canvasback	2.1	Redhead	1.1	Scaup	1.1.
Percent	of Total Breeding
Ducks		96.6		97.8		96.0		99-1.		99-0

An attempt was made during the period 1961-64 to determine by intensive ground beat-out methods the number of broods by species on a series of short transects scattered within the area surveyed by each aerial crew. The aerial crews covered each of the transects four times— twice in early morning and twice in late morning. The purpose was to deter- mine the proportion of broods by size and age class, and the paired and single adults by species actually present, that the aerial crew was able to see and record. The method de- pended upon the ground crew's ability to find all broods and single and paired adults within the transect, but it soon became evident that this was not feasible. Even with intensive coverage, the ground crews obviously missed many broods, especially those species whose escape mechanism often caused them to leave the pond and hide in surrounding upland vege- tation. Also, it became apparent that changes from year to year in the density of emergent vegetation in the ponds caused the ground crews to find varying proportions of the broods, which meant that their efforts did not result in a useful index to the number of broods present. For this reason, the July air-ground comparison survey was discontinued after the 1964 breeding season.

Nevertheless, an average of the data col- lected during the 4 years did provide a crude aerial visibility rate for broods that should be reasonably comparable among the three age classes. Since the ground crews did not find all of the broods, the aerial visibility rates are higher than they should be, and the adjusted brood index is, therefore, too low.

The unadjusted brood index is presented first in the body of this report, and is followed by the adjusted figures. This will facilitate ease in readjusting the figures at a later date if more refined visibility rates become available. The adjusted figures are still crude, but we believe they are more meaningful than the unadjusted data. Only the unadjusted brood index counts are shown in the Appendix tables.

Air-ground comparisons in survey strata to the north of the Canadian prairies, and in the United States, have not been undertaken, and therefore no adjustments to the brood indexes could be made in these areas.

RECONSTRUCTION OF FILES

As a result of investigations into the con- dition of aerial survey files associated with the May Breeding Ground Survey (see Pospa- hala et al., in prep.), July Production Survey data were also examined. Discrepancies ap- peared when previously published reports were compared with available basic field data. Consequently, all July Production Survey data were carefully checked and resummarized. In addition, several survey boundaries were changed, and information collected from partial segments (those less than 18 miles long) was deleted.

The corrected and pooled southern Prairie Province data on July ponds were not too different from the "old" data except for 1955 through 1957 (fig. 2). Estimates pertaining to broods and waterfowl indexes were less seriously affected.

6_

z o

— 3

Q Z

o

Z 2.

I I "Old" July Pond Estimates

Revised July Pond Estimates

Figure 2. -A comparison of the estimated number of July ponds in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

before and after file reconstruction.

RESULTS

The chronological sequence in developing the surveys throughout the breeding ground pro- vides a logical outline for discussing the data collected. Seventeen years of information are now available from the southern Prairie Prov- inces of Canada which, because of their water- fowl densities, are the most important breed- ing grounds. Crissey (1969) estimated that annually an average of 57 percent of the mal- lards and 47 percent of the total game ducks in North America bred in this area during the 1955-64 period. The surveyed areas were gradually expanded northward and southward from the hub of breeding activity. The results of the surveys in each portion of the breeding range are discussed separately. Most manage- ment decisions are made on the basis of infor- mation collected in the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada; thus, this area will be discussed in more detail because, indeed, it is the most important. The basic information for the southern Prairie Provinces is pre- sented in Appendix A; for northern Canada

and the Northwest Territories, in Appendix B; and for North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, in Appendix C. A small amount of data from western Minnesota (1958-66) is presented in Appendix D, and a small amount of data from northwestern Ontario (1960-64) is presented in Appendix E.

Southern Prairie Provinces

JULY POND COUNTS

The southern Prairie Provinces of Canada (226,560 square miles) have a history of alter- nating periods of water abundance and drought (Lynch et al., 1963). The obvious importance of the instability of the ponds and the probable influence of water on waterfowl production rates in the southern Prairie Provinces led to the counting of ponds during the annual surveys in both May and July. Lynch et al. (1963: 107) wrote that ". . .the most durable of prairie

environments serve as an oasis of waterfowl survival during periods of water deficiency, and from which breeders can proliferate into the 'intermittent' and eventually into the 'temporary' environments at such times as the latter become available." Similarly, Dzubin and Gollop (1972) concluded that the center of mallard abundance occurs in a most unstable and climatically unpredictable environment. The center of the southern Prairie Provinces (Saskatchewan) has the least stable water levels, with its coefficient of variation of the July pond numbers being approximately twice that of either Alberta or Manitoba (table 2, fig. 3). It is the periodic drying that makes nutrients available and leads to high produc- tivity of plant and animal biomass when water is available. The estimated number of July ponds in Saskatchewan ranged from a low of 193,000 in 1961 to a high of 2,039,000 in 1955. Crissey (1963, 1967) and Gollop (1965) docu- mented a direct relationship between pond numbers and the number of mallards produced in southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba. Water, indeed, is the most crucial factor which influences waterfowl production.

Table 2. — Summary of July pond estimates for the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.

Year		Alberta	Saskatchewan	Manitoba	Total
1955		770,656	2,039,359	636,363	3,kk6,378
1956		852,572	1,106,170	kl7,008	2,375,750
1957		57l»,220	665, 7k7	250,582	I,k90,5k9
1958		592, 5k5	396,656	519,166	1,508,367
1959		378,266	510,232	kl3,086	1,301,58k
I960		523,275	6l8,Tk6	37k ,982	1,517,003
1961		302,000	193,113	128,23k	623,3k7
1962		k69,kso	256,25k	225, koo	951,10k
1963		9115,628	718,1169	326,671	1,990,968
196k		"135,071	507,010	kk6,729	1,388,810
1965		1,095,337	915,765	390,189	2,k01,291
1966		593,268	1,079,018	kll,978	2, 08k ,26k
1967		725,61il	620,558	276,963	1,623,162
1968		380,26k	3k2,380	160,555	883,199
1969		1420,561*	960,087	353,679	1,73k, 330
1970		610,92k	1,728,21k	kl6,708	2,755 ,8k6
1971		6ii9 ,5UU	1,09k, 162	k05,68l	2,lk9,387
1955-62	Mean	557,873	723,285	370,603	1,651,760
1963-71	Mean	650,693	885 ,07k	35k, 373	l,890,lko
1955-71	Mean	607,013	808,938	362,010	1,777,961
Coefficient of	35-5	61.7	3k. 9	k0.3
Variation (X 100)
July Ponds/Square Mile
1955-62	Mean	7.k8	6.39	9-57	7.29
1963-71	Mean	8.72	7-82	9-15	8.3k
1955-71 Mean	8. U	7.1k	9.35	7.85

SAMPLING ERRORS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF JULY PONDS

The estimate of the number of July ponds present in each survey stratum is subject to substantial sampling error. This is due to; (1) the small sampling intensity (from 0.3 to 1.6 percent in the various strata in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Mani- toba); (2) the large variability that seems to be associated with pond numbers; and (3) the small number of transects in each stratum. Estimates of the variability on the numbers of July ponds were obtained by considering the transects within a stratum as the basic sampling unit. Confidence intervals were cal- culated using a ratio method (Cochran, 1963: 163) where the transect length was used as the auxiliary variable. Estimates of average confidence intervals for the 1955-71 period for strata in the primary Canadian breeding areas are presented in table 3.

Ninety percent confidence intervals, as a percent of the estimate, ranged from as low as 1 7 percent to as high as t 73 percent for an individual stratum in a particular year. Generally, the largest variances relate to the smaller or less important strata (e.g., stratum 28 in Alberta). Estimates of the total number of ponds in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have an average confidence interval of + 37 percent (range 22- 63 percent, during the 1955-71 period).

BROOD INDEX (ALL SPECIES)

An index to waterfowl production is obtained from the number of duck broods (Class I, Class II, and Class III [from Gollop and Marshall, 1954]) seen from the air. All previous uses of the brood index have involved the total brood count, irrespective of age classes or species. It is known that some species, particu- larly diving ducks, are more easily seen from the air due to their behavioral traits. Further- more, annual variation in vegetative cover may

20.

10

0	Alberta
•	Saskatchewan
X	Manitoba
D	Dakotas
®	Montana

1955 1956 1957

1959 1960

1962 1963 1964 YEAR

1965 1966 1967 1968

1970 1971

Figure 3. -Number of July ponds per square mile in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and in

the north-central United States, 1955-71.

also significantly affect the percentage of broods seen from the air. Since broods usually are not identifiable or designated by species, and the percent of vegetative cover on the ponds is not measured, adjustments for these factors cannot be made. However, air:ground comparisons made on a limited scale in the southern Prairie Provinces during the years 1961-64 suggested that for all species com- bined an average of approximately 10.7 per- cent of the Class I broods, 32.3 percent of the Class II broods, and 46.0 percent of the Class HI broods were visible from the air. Accordingly, the brood counts were adjusted by these crude figures in an attempt to obtain a more precise estimate of brood indexes.

Table 3. — Estimates of the average 90 percent confidence intervals for July pond counts in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71

		90$	Confidence Interval
Province	Stratum	(as a	percent	of the estimate)
Alberta	26 27 28			21 22 54
Saskatchewan	19 20 21 22 23			17 24 37 49 30
Manitoba	aii 25			19 24

These data remain indexes, and should not be misconstrued to mean anything else, particu- larly in view of the unmeasured behavioral and environmental factors. Unadjusted brood counts, together with the percentage of broods from each age class, are presented in table 4. If more realistic adjustment factors become available at a later date, these data may be used as the base for modification.

Adjusted brood indexes for the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Mani- toba are presented in table 5. The 17-year pattern in brood indexes parallels that of the July pond estimates. The Saskatchewan brood index was the most variable, ranging from 143,000 to 2,161,000 (coefficient of variation 83.2 percent). Brood indexes for Alberta and Manitoba were less variable (coefficients of variation 31.9 and 47.1 percent, respectively). The 17-year adjusted brood indexes for the combined southern portions of all three Prairie Provinces suggest that the number of ducklings produced reached a peak in the mid-1950's, reached a low in the early 1960's, and returned to an intermediate level during the late 1960's and early 1970's (fig. 4). Crissey (1963, 1969) found a significant relationship between the number of ponds in July in the southern

Table k.

-Summary of unadjusted brood index information for the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.

	Alberta			Sas	katchewan		Man:	Ltoba
		Percent in	each		Percent in	each		Percent in	each
	Unadjusted Brood Index	a«	e-clas	s	Unadjusted Brood Index	age-class	Unadjusted Brood Index	age-clas I II	s
Year	I	II	III	I	II	III	III
1955	358,1*31	7.8	1*5.0	1*7-2	2l*!*, Ill	2l*.5	1*8.8	26.7	21*, 318	29.7	37.1	33.2
1956	313,902	3.6	1*9.2	1*7.2	382,011	1*1*. 8	29.3	25.8	26,11*1*	2l*.9	1*5. S	29.5
1957	1.30,378	5.5	1*7.7	1*6.8	l*ll*,l*5l*	23.7	31.7	1*1*. 6	62,1*1*1	29.0	1*7.8	23.1
1958	^95,751	l*.8	51*. 3	1*0.9	269,1*98	30.9	1*1*. 8	21*. 3	68,123	1*1.5	32.2	26.2
1959	288,973	11.1	58.6	30.3	10l*,5l*9	27.6	39.9	32.6	33,215	61.5	31*. 1	1*.5
i960	229,030	10.0	56.9	33.1	121,687	30.8	1*2.1*	26.8	31*, 752	1*1.9	50.1	8.0
1961	279,972	8.2	!*!*.!*	1*7.1*	71,771*	22.7	33.1	1*1*. 3	32,581	30.3	58.8	10.9
1962	167,831	5.5	1*7.8	1*6.7	35,617	18.1	58.1*	23.5	16,752	37.1	1*7.7	15-3
1963	258,9^3	It. 7	1*9.0	1*6.3	1*6,102	20.1*	1*1.1	38.1*	33,502	ll*.l*	1*3.8	1.1.8
196U	21*7,687	3.2	77.1*	19.1*	67,1*93	19.1	59-0	22.0	26,536	32.0	55.3	12.7
1965	132,021*	21.2	51.2	27.6	1*7,31*2	21*. 9	51.2	23.8	23,032	39-1	60.6	0.3
1966	216,959	33.2	39.2	27.6	96,615	21.6	53.1*	25.0	31,1*99	27.2	60.5	12.3
1967	201,737	1*0.7	39-7	19.6	95,1*1*3	35.1	1*1.6	23.1*	31,073	62.8	33.8	3.1*
1968	120,1*62	33.1	1*8.7	18.2	79,111*	35.2	1*1.7	23.2	15 ,119	37-1	56.7	6.2
1969	207,377	3l*.l	1*2.6	23.3	177,91*5	ll*.8	52.9	32.3	25 , 306	36.3	51.3	12.1*
1970	121,137	23.3	1*3.9	32.8	130,991*	21*. 1	38.9	37-0	21,881*	72.0	26.1*	1.5
1971	121*, 631	39-6	36.1*	2l*.0	180,832	15.1	1*1.3	1*3.6	16,213	1*7.2	1*6.2	6.6

320,531* 7.1 50.5 1+2. 5 205,1*63

181,217 25.9 1*7.6 26.5 102,1*31

1955-62

Mean

1963-71 Mean

mIII'11 21*6,778 17.0 1*8.9 31*. 0 150,917

Coefficient

of Variation (X 100)

1*3.8

75.9

Provinces and mallard production on a continent-wide basis.

-Summary of adjusted brood index information for the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 1955-71

			Adjusted Brood	Indexi/
Year	Alberta	Saskatchewan	Manitoba	Total
1955		1,128,536	1,069,922	113,015	2,311,1*73
1956		905,931	2,161,021	111*, 1*82	3,181,1*31*
1957		l,29lt,798	1,726,813	293,136	3,3ll*,7l>7
1958		1,1*96,985	1,295,009	371,066	3,163,060
1959		1,0114,862	1*73,081	229,3>>7	1,717,290
I960		782,635	581,151	196,152	1,559,938
1961		887 ,986	29 1» ,98k	159,399	1,3>>2,369
1962		505,079	Ul2,922	88,1*1.1.	736,1*1*5
1963		767,287	185,092	120 ,982	1,073,361
1961.		772,680	276,196	132,202	1,181,078
1965		550,318	209 ,808	127,623	887,71*9
1966		1,067,072	1*07, W	11*7,595	l,622,lUl
1967		1,101,781	1*81* ,772	217,307	1,803,860
1968		602,250	1*02,1*79	81,050	1,085,779
1969		1,039,910	662,777	132 ,9>>2	1,835,629
1970		5ll*,980	558,323	165 ,9!i0	1,239 ,2!"3
1971		667,002	657,920	97,097	1,1*22,019
1955-62	Mean	1,002,102	968,113	195,630	2,165,81*5
1963-71	Mean	787,031	1127,205	135,860	1,350,095
1955-71	Mean	888,21*1	681,750	163,987	1,733,977
Coefficient of 31.9	83.2	1*7.1	1*6.5
Variation (X 100)
Brood Index/Square Mile
1955-62		13.1*3	8.55	5.05	9.56
1963-71		10.55	3.77	3.51	5.96
1955-71		11.90	6.02	U.23	7.65

27.9 1*1.1 31.1 23.1* 1*6.8 29.9 25.5 1*1*. 1 30.1*

37,291 37.0 1*1*. 2 18.8

2l*,907 1*0.9 1*8.3 10.8

30,735 39.1 1+6.3 1U.6 1*7.0

1/ Assumes 10-7 percent of Class I broods, 32.3 percent of Class II broods, and 1*6.0 percent of Class III broods are observed from the air.

The mean brood index per square mile for the 17-year period progressively declined from west to east in the southern portions of the Prairie Provinces (11.90 in Alberta, 6.02 in Saskatchewan, and 4.23 in Manitoba) (table 5). The difference appears to be independent of ponds per square mile, because the respec- tive 17-year means are 8.14, 7.14, and 9.35 (table 2). The phenology of the season is earliest in Alberta, which may account for a higher percentage of the broods being observed (older age classes are easier to see from the air). Furthermore, a higher percentage of the broods may appear after the survey is com- pleted in the east because the nesting season there is later. Brood visibility may also vary among Provinces, although the earlier season, combined with some other unknown factors, may lead to higher annual nesting success in Alberta. Hunters in the Pacific Flyway have enjoyed good populations of waterfowl and liberal regulations for years and a high per- centage of the birds they harvest are produced in Alberta.

BROOD SIZE (ALL SPECIES)

The brood size of Class II and Class III ducklings is counted during the survey in July (table 6); however, it is not possible to segre- gate the brood-size data according to species. The mortality or brood-size decrease between Class II and III is usually less than 10 percent, and Stoudt (1971: 49-50) showed long-term

averages for mallards, canvasbacks, and blue- winged teal of from 2 to 6 percent. Dzubin and Gollop (1972) show losses in mallards of from 3 to 10 percent between Class II and III. A brood-size decrease of from 2 to 10 percent is also shown in the Appendix tables. The small difference between the two age classes pro- vides a strong case for pooling the data and using the two classes combined as an index

2500

Z 2000

<

I/)

o

z

x ,500-l

uj

Q

z o § 1000

0J

[■!vl\l A I ber ta

1 I Saskatchewan

Manitoba

1962 1963 YEAR

1966

1968 1969 1970 1971

Figure 4. -Adjusted brood indexes in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.

Table 6. — Summary of Class II and Class III brood size data combined for the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71-

					Weighted-
Year		Alberta	Saskatchewan	Manitoba	Total
1955		6.08	6.62	5.62	6.27
1956		6.08	6.00	5.08	6.00
1957		6.32	6.03	5-6U	6. H
1958		6.35	It. 1)0	6.87	5.76
1959		li.23	1..28	5.53	lt.3lt
I960		6.12	It. 79	5.65	5.66
1961		5.82	I4.68	5.63	5.59
1962		5-59	5.115	5.09	5-53
1963		6.10	5-U7	5.li3	5.95
1964		5.91*	5.77	5. Oil	5.83
1965		6.23	5.90	5-58	6.08
1966		6.61	5.83	5.32	6.28
1967		5.83	5.1i2	5-17	5.65
1968		5.33	I1.90	It. 79	5.13
1969		6.32	5.61	6. oil	5.99
1970		5.1.8	5.37	5.6I1	5.I1I1
1971		5.93	5.21	It. 80	5.1*7
1955-62	Mean	5.82	5.28	5.6U	5.66
1963-71	Mean	5-97	5.50	5.31	5.76
1955-71	Mean	5.90	5.I1O	5-1*7	5.71
Coeffic	Lent of	9-2	11.6	9.1	8.3
Variation (X 100)

1/ Weighted according to the unadjusted brood Index In each province.

to brood size at fledging time. The mean brood size (Class II and Class III combined) for the 17-year period shows that broods are larger in Alberta (5.90) and about the same size in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (5.40 and 5.47, respectively). It appears that, in addition to more broods being produced per square mile in Alberta (table 5), the average brood size is also larger (table 6). The species composition of the breeding ducks in Alberta and Saskatchewan is very similar (table 1).

Brood sizes in southern Saskatchewan had the highest annual variation and the lowest mean for the 17-year period. The annual brood size in southern Saskatchewan and the number of ponds in July per square mile were sig- nificantly correlated (r = +0.62**, 15 d.f.). No significant correlations were detected from the data gathered in Alberta and Manitoba; however, the combined brood size in the southern portions of the three Prairie

10

Provinces also showed a significant correla- tion with the number of July ponds per square mile (r = +0.44**, 49d.f.). The average brood size increased as the average number of July ponds per square mile increased. Dzubin and Gollop (1972) report that mallard broods are highly mobile, and more ponds per square mile in July would generally shorten travel distance for broods in the event of a pond dry- ing up. It appears that a closer proximity of ponds obviates the loss of a lower percentage of the ducklings during the prefledging period. Many other biological factors (e.g., breeding density, timing of production, etc.) and climatological factors may have an effect on brood size; therefore, an exceptionally high correlation coefficient between the two vari- ables was not expected.

LATE NESTING INDEX (ALL SPECIES)

Pairs and single drakes without broods seen during the July survey are identified to species, if possible. Together they comprise the late nesting index, which is a measure of renesting effort and nesting season chronology. Flocked birds (three or more birds of different sexes) and groups consisting of two or more drakes are not counted.

To determine the importance and/or relative changes in the late nesting effort, the late nesting index must be evaluated in relation to the size of the breeding population. The late

nesting indexes per 1,000 breeding mallards and per 1,000 breeding other ducks present during the May Survey are shown in table 7; in figure 5 and figure 6, they are compared with the quantity of July water in the south- ern Prairie Provinces of Canada. One would intuitively believe that a higher percentage of ducks would renest if more water is available in July. This appears to be the case, because a highly significant positive correlation was noted between the number of July ponds and the late nesting index for mallards (r = +0.72**), and for all other species com- bined (r = +0.67**). In addition to a higher cor- relation for mallards, the average late nesting index per 1,000 breeders was also higher (table 7). This is perhaps due to the mallards' steadfast persistence in trying to produce a brood. Hickey (1952) believed that considerable renesting occurred with mallards, and Coulter and Miller (1968) reported mallards being much more persistent renesters than black ducks (Anas rubripes ) in the same habitats. During a 5-year period, Keith (1961) com- pared numbers of pairs and numbers of nests, and by knowing the percentage hatch on his areas in Alberta, estimated that 100 percent of the unsuccessful mallards on his study area renested; however, only 82 percent of the gadwall (Anas strepera), 75 percent of the shovelers (Spatula clypeata), 55 percent of the blue- winged teal (Anas discors), and 39 percent of the lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) renested.

Table 7. — Late nesting index per 1,000 breeding mallards and per 1,000 breeding other ducks recorded during the May Survey in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.

Breeding Populations (Thousands )!/ Late Nesting Index (Thousands) Late Hesting Index per 1000 Breeders Years Mallards Other Ducks Mallards Other Ducks Mallards Other Ducks

1955	9,728.9
1956	10,508.9
1957	9,1*73.2
1958	12,1*57.0
1959	6,873.7
i960	6,796.0
1961	3,31*3.7
1962	2,755.9
1963	3,2ll*.l*
196!*	3,1*1*6.7
1965	2,596.7
1966	It, 129.0
1967	3,957.8
1968	3,760.0
1969	3,800.0
1970	5,218.7
1971	6,1*81.7
17 year Mean	5,796.6

2l*,061*.l 23,836.1 19,271.0 l8,7l!*.0

17,1*73.1

15,81*3.3 11,986.7

8,373.1

7,866.1* 10,658.1*

8,517.0 lh, 733.1 ll* ,939.0

8,1*17.8 13,711.9 15,1*50.6 ll*,367.5

lit, 601.1*

219.2

106.1*

63.7

108.1*

72.6

100.5

30.6

20.1

36.2

36.2

73.7

68.2

1*9.0

1*3.9

70.3

11*1*. 6

101.5

79.1

352.1

227.2

97.6

210.9

ll*l*.9

136.0

1*1.2

25.5

80.2

63.1*

166.8

179-5

160.0

113.0

222.1*

357-7

272.6

167.7

22.5 10.1

6.7

8.7 10.6 lit. 8

9-

7. 11. 10.

28.

16.

12.1* 11.7 18.5 27.7

15.7

ll*.3

ll».6

9-5

5.1

11.3

8.3

8.6

3.1*

3.0

10.2

5-9

19.6

12.2

10.7

13.1*

16.2

23.2

19.0

ll.lt

1/ Data from Pospahala et al. (in prep.).

11

30.					65	7.°
25.
		Y =2.498 + 6.623 X
		r= +0.72** r'=0.52					55
20-		d.(. = 15	69
			J*v
15-		60
10-	68 /$ • / 5.s	9	5*
	/*	57
5.
0
		1 1	I	1	1	1	1

JULY PONDS (MILLIONS)

Figure 5. -Relationship between the late nesting index (mallards) and the number of July ponds in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.

25-		J =1.895 + 5 360X						7.°
		r = + 0.67"
		r' = 0.45
20 _		d.f. = 15				V	65
			69
15-	68						55
10_		58,, • 67		63	56
5-	^/^ 6i 62	*57
		1 '		i		1	1

JULY PONDS (MILLIONS)

Figure 6. -Relationship between the late nesting index (all other species) and the number of July ponds in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.

RECRUITMENT RATE (ALL SPECIES)

Survey), the fall flight may be estimated if the annual recruitment rate of the population is known. Several procedures for estimating the annual recruitment rate have been used previously. During the 1950's and early 1960's, estimating annual production was a partially subjective procedure which weighed the re- sults of the July Survey against the average of past years (Crissey, 1957).

During the last 10 years, the Waterfowl Harvest Survey, the Wing- Collection Survey, the preseason banding program, and the May Breeding Ground Survey have made possible an estimate of the number of young pro- duced annually; however, the information is not available prior to the hunting season (Kaczynski and Geis, 1961). It is significant, however, that the procedure provides a basis for judging the accuracy of predictions made the previous July. In 1968, mallard production rates presented at the regulations meetings were estimated by a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis (Geis et al., 1969). The recruitment rates obtained a year in arrears for the period 1955-to-date were used, to- gether with a constant and four independent variables (the number of July ponds, the conti- nental mallard breeding population, the percent of ponds existing from the May Survey to the July Survey, and the index to the number of unadjusted broods of all species), to predict the recruitment rate for the current year. All data bases used in this approach are currently being reconstructed and corrected as part of the mallard study. The information presented in this report has resulted from the recon- struction effort. These corrections should improve our ability to estimate the numbers of birds in the fall flight; however, all of the necessary sets of data are not presently avail- able. The results of the data reanalysis will be incorporated into the mallard study.

The decisions pertaining to the annual water- fowl regulations for the United States are made in early August; therefore, fall flight fore- casts must be made and appropriate regula- tions set at that time. All information from the May and July Breeding Ground Surveys is available by late July and can be used to predict the fall flight. Given the breeding population size (from May Breeding Ground

Dzubin (1969) cautioned that any comparisons between pond numbers and breeding pairs should be tempered with data on pond size, quality, and density; and that individual species and not ducks as a whole should be compared. We concur; however, the data available from the aerial surveys cannot be subjected to such an analysis. The broods seen from the air can- not be identified to species, and time is not

12

available to record additional information re- garding characteristics of the ponds. Relation- ships between ducks per July pond and the recruitment rate index, together with many other correlations, would probably be more significant if we could follow the approach outlined by Dzubin.

Recruitment rates obtained from selected long-term ground studies are presented be- low. Intensive ground studies between 1952 and 1965 at Redvers, Saskatchewan — apparently, one of the better waterfowl breed- ing environments in Canada — provided the following average production rate estimates per adult; mallards, 1.4 young; pintails (Anas acuta), 1.0 young; blue-winged teal, 1.6 young; and canvasback (Aythya valisineria), 1.7 young (Stoudt, 1971). Average production estimates in the Alberta parklands (near Lousana) for approximately the same time period (1953-65) were somewhat lower per adult (assuming an equal sex ratio of birds on breeding grounds): mallards, 0.8 young; American widgeon (Mareca americana), 1.4 young; blue-winged teal, 1.6 young; and canvasbacks, 1.4 young (Smith, 1971). Dzubin (1969) noted recruitment rates for mallards in his Roseneath Study Area (Manitoba) of 1.3, 1.5, and 1.1 immatures per adult for 1952, 1953, and 1954, respectively; however, in the grasslands (Kindersley, Saskatchewan), the recruitment rate was much lower (0.3 to 0.7 immatures per adult). These data show that recruitment rates are quite variable between species and between loca- tions and years. Therefore, any set of statistics which shows average recruitment rates for a large area (i.e., southern Prairie Provinces of Canada) and all species combined would be expected to show only general patterns, at best. Our recruitment rate estimates will primarily (if not solely) be based on infor- mation collected in the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada, although the percentage of game ducks nesting in the southern prairies may be an important statistic.

Northern Canada and Northwest Territories

Ponds are not counted during the survey in the northern portion of the breeding range be- cause water i3 much more stable. Although

the survey in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba was initiated in 1959, a portion of this area was not surveyed the first year. Therefore, comparable data are available only for 1960-71. Production surveys in the Northwest Territories began in 1966, with 6 years of data now available, while surveys in northern Alberta began in 1969. See Appendix B for strata summaries.

BROOD INDEX (ALL SPECIES)

All brood index figures are unadjusted be- cause no air:ground comparisons have been conducted to determine visibility rates. This is partially due to the low density of breeding waterfowl, the inaccessibility of the area, and the great difficulty in making representative ground censuses.

Brood indexes in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba increased after 1965, with a peak reached in 1969; this was followed by a marked decline in 1970 and 1971 (fig. 7). The 3 years of information from northern Alberta show a similar decline in 1970 and 1971. Brood indexes for the Northwest Territories appear to fluctuate randomly, with no apparent trends. Climatic factors in the north are more rigorous, and weather may play an important role there.

The breeding population of dabbling ducks (from the May Survey) in northern Canada and the Northwest Territories remained relatively

„			•	Alberta
Q	400^		-	Sai	katchewan & Man	loba
< a X X	300.		°	No	thweil Territories			,\
				o
Q Z
a O 2 Q	200.				A			•v.	-^
m 3 < z	100-				j\				\
	0.
					1

I960 1961 1962 1963 1964

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 YEAR

Figure 7. -Unadjusted brood indexes in the northern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and in the Northwest Territories. The dotted line indicates that no survey was conducted in 1961.

13

490-337 O - 72 - 2

unchanged during the last 10 years (Pospahala et al., in prep.); however, there was a large emigration of drought-displaced ducks to the Arctic in the late 1950's and early 1960's, particularly in 1959 (Hansen, 1960; Crissey, 1963; Hansen and McKnight, 1964). A large waterfowl breeding population (in excess of 30 million) on the prairies combined with a rapid reduction of suitable breeding territories on the prairies during the drought, was un- doubtedly responsible for emigration. It is in- teresting that, during the drought years in the prairies, blue-winged teal, redheads (Ay thy a americana), ruddy ducks (Oxyura jamaicensis), canvasbacks, and shovelers were recorded in Alaska either for the first time or in much greater abundance than formerly (Hansen, 1960; Hansen and McKnight, 1964). Hansen and McKnight concluded that, although some in- dividuals can and will nest successfully under displaced circumstances, not enough of them do in order to maintain an abundance com- mensurate with that attained in their normal environment. Recently, Smith (1970) reported a significant inverse relationship between number of water areas on the prairies of Alberta and Saskatchewan for the years 1959- 68 and the portion of the pintail population moving north of the prairies and parklands. Furthermore, as the portion of the pintail population moving into the northern areas in- creased, an index of annual production de- clined significantly.

In addition to the major movement north in 1959, some evidence for northward movement in 1964 is also available (Pospahala et al., in prep.). A corresponding increase in the brood index in the north was reported in 1964 (fig. 7). Reasons for the continual increase in the brood index in northern Canada between 1965 and 1969 are unclear, because the breeding numbers observed during the May Survey re- mained relatively unchanged. The 6 years of combined information on brood indexes from northern Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba, and the Northwest Territories suggest an abrupt increase in broods in 1968 (fig. 7), the year when water levels in the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada were exceptionally low (less than 1 million ponds in July). Could a portion of the southern prairie birds have

moved north after the May Survey was com- pleted in the north? Smith and Hawkins (1948) also discussed the possibility of late nesting pairs moving into an area and not being enumerated by a census conducted at one interval. If this is the case, the decreased water levels in the southern prairies between 1965 and 1968 may have been responsible for the gradually increasing number of broods in the north; likewise, the improvement of water levels in the southern prairies in 1969-71 may be responsible for the downward trend in brood indexes in the north in recent years.

BROOD SIZE (ALL SPECIES)

Class II and Class III broods were com- bined and the average brood size presented in figure 8 for northern Saskatchewan and north- ern Manitoba, and the Northwest Territories. The average brood size appears to have in- creased in recent years. A mean brood size of 5.38 was reported from northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba during the years 1960- 71 — considererably lower than the 5.90 re- ported from southern Alberta (table 6); how- ever, it is very similar to the average reported from southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba (5.40 and 5.47, respectively).

i

-i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 —

I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

Figure 8.- Annual brood size (Class II and Class III combined) in northern Canada and the Northwest Territories. The dotted line indicates that no survey was conducted in 1961.

14

LATE NESTING INDEX (ALL SPECIES)

Information concerning the late nesting in- dex in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba is available for 11 years (since 1960). Systematic data collection during the July production survey began in the Northwest Territories in 1966, and in northern Alberta in 1969 (fig. 9). The square miles surveyed in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba roughly equal the area surveyed in the North- west Territories (222,114 square miles vs. 195,513 square miles). Collectively, the late nesting index in 1968 and 1969 nearly doubled the levels of 1966 and 1967, but dropped dramatically in 1970 and 1971. There was virtually no late nesting index in the North- west Territories in 1971.

.	Saskotch	swon	& Man	tobo
o	Northwes	t Te	ritorie
•	Alberto

— I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 —

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

Figure 9. -Late nesting index in northern Canada and the Northwest Territories. The dotted line indicates that no survey was conducted in 1961.

North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana

JULY POND COUNTS

Pond numbers in Montana have remained relatively stable (fig. 3), which is probably because a high percentage are man-made stock ponds. Pond counts in the Dakotas are more variable, and have shown an upward trend since 1968 which is similar to the trend observed in the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada. Only one to two water areas per square mile are reported from Montana, while approximately three to six per square mile

are reported from the Dakotas (see Appendix C for additional details).

BROOD INDEX (ALL SPECIES)

It is of interest that the unadjusted brood index per square mile in Montana is con- sistently higher than the index in the Dakotas, even though more than twice as many water areas per square mile are found in the Dakotas. The brood index in the Dakotas ranged from approximately 50,000 to 90,000 during the last 6 years, while indexes from Montana ranged from 43,000 to 68,000. The surveyed area in the Dakotas is nearly twice the size of the surveyed area in Montana and has ap- proximately four times the number of July water areas. Ponds in Montana are mostly open stock dams with little shoreline vegeta- tion; however, the Dakotas have a portion of the potholes completely covered with emergent vegetation. Differing visibility rates are probably responsible for at least part of the observed differences.

BROOD SIZE (ALL SPECIES)

The 6-year average size for Class II and Class III broods from the Dakotas was 5.82, while the 5-year average from Montana was considerably lower — 5.02 young. Most of the duck broods in the Dakotas are blue-winged teal, while the broods in Montana are pri- marily mallards (table 1). Smith (1971; 39) and Stoudt (1971: 47) have shown that blue- winged teal broods are consistently larger than mallard broods, which probably accounts for the differences in average brood sizes between the two locations. There is an indica- tion that the average brood size in both Montana and the Dakotas improved in 1969 and 1970 when the density of water areas per square mile increased.

LATE NESTING INDEX (ALL SPECIES)

Only limited information is available re- garding this parameter in Montana and the Dakotas. The late nesting effort in Montana appears to be much lower than the effort re- ported from the Dakotas.

15

SUMMARY

Basic information obtained from the July Waterfowl Production Survey is presented in 32 Appendix tables for the period 1955-71. The discussion of the data is minimized be- cause the report is designed primarily to make the data available to waterfowl biologists and other interested individuals. Data pre- sented include: (1) the number of July ponds, (2) the brood index, (3) the average size for

Class II and Class III broods, and (4) the late nesting index. These statistics are presented for each stratum surveyed. A few of the obvious cor relations are dis- cussed, although more refined analyses of the data will be presented in the Mallard Study reports. Furthermore, additional sup- porting information will be available for the mallard reports.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Numerous individuals have taken part in the annual July Production Survey during the last 17 years as either pilots or observers, and their work is gratefully acknowledged. G. Hortin Jensen has participated in the sur- vey each year since 1955, while Rossalius G. Hanson has been a survey pilot for 16 of these 17 years. Two other Flyway Biologists, Morton M. Smith and Arthur R. Brazda, have piloted survey planes for 10 years. Pilots and observers who have worked with the survey for 5 years or more include: K. Duane Norman, Gerald Pospichal, Alva E. Weinrich, Richard C. Droll, R. David Purinton, Glen V. Orton, David W. Fisher, Joseph W. Perroux, Jr., and Charles D. Evans. Other participants in- clude: James F. Voelzer, Edward G. Wellein, Everett B. Chamberlain, Gust J. Nun, J. Donald Smith, Robert H. Smith, Allen G. Smith, Donald Combs, Floyd A. Thompson, Donald N. Frickie, Joseph A. Serafin, BonarD. Law, James L. Nelson, William Hyshka, Joe M. Matlock, Robert W. Slattery, Richard A. Gimby, Ralph Hancox, Maurice Lundy, Thomas J. Harper, Edgar L. Ferguson, Eugene V. Cofer, D. R. Halladay, N. G. Perret,

Walter S. Okamoto, Donald E. Wieland, Hugh V. Hines, Ridley D. Duncan, Fred A. Glover, D. J. Mcintosh, Marshall L. Stinnett, and Ralph Von Dane.

The assistance of Morton M. Smith of the Branch of Management, Division of Manage- ment and Enforcement, in obtaining source documents is very much appreciated. Also, the current Flyway Biologists came to our aid numerous times as questions about bound- aries and survey procedures constantly arose. Fortunately, several of the pilots have a long tenure with this survey and their help was particularly valuable. Walter F. Crissey, Alex Dzubin, and Henry M. Reeves gave much ap- preciated editorial assistance.

Clerical work in resummarizing 17 years of the July Survey was a major task, and the fol- lowing individuals are very much responsible for the rapid completion of the project: Judith P. Bladen, Colleen E. Bystrak, Marcella M. Edwards, Samuel E. Fowler, Marcia E. Henson, S. Kathleen Judy, Mary T. LePore, and Deanna L. Light.

16

REFERENCES

Anderson, D. R., and C. J. Henny. 1972. Population ecology of the mallard: I. A review of previous studies and the distribution and migration from breeding areas. Resource Publication 105, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., in press.

Bellrose, F. C, T. G. Scott, A. S. Hawkins, and J. B. Low. 1961. Sex ratios and age ratios in North American ducks. Illinois Nat. Hist. Surv. Bull. 27:[388M74.

Cochran, W. G. 1963. Sampling techniques. Second Edi- tion. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 413 p.

Coulter, M. W., and W. R. Miller. 1968. Nesting biology of black ducks and mallards in northern New England. Bull. No. 68-2. Vermont Fish and Game Dept. 74 p.

Crissey, W. F. 1957. Forecasting waterfowl harvest by fly- ways. Trans. N. Am. Wildl. Conf. 22:256-268.

. 1963. Exploitation of migratory waterfowl popu- lations in North America. Proceedings European Meeting on Wild Fowl Conservation, St. Andrews, Scotland. 1:105-120.

. 1967. Aims and methods of waterfowl research

in North America. Finnish Game Research. 30:37-46.

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Changed status of several species of Condor. 62:136-137.

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17

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48

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1972 O-490-337

As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has basic responsibilities for water, fish, wildlife, mineral, land, park, and recreational resources. Indian and Ter- ritorial affairs are other major concerns of this department of natural resources.

The Department works to assure the wisest choice in managing all our resources so that each shall make its full contribution to a better United States now and in the future.

UNITED STATES

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE

BUREAU OF SPORT FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE

WASHINGTON, D.C 20240

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR INT 423