BOSTON PUBLIC LIBRARY 3 9999 06317 804 8 I / POPULATION TRENDS OF BLACKBIRDS AND STARLINGS IN NORTH AMERICA, 1966-76 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE Special Scientific Report — Wildlife No. 214 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Dolbeer, Richard A. Population trends of blackbirds and starlings in North America, 1966-76. (Special scientific report— wildlife; no. 214) Supt. of Docs, no.: I 49.15/3:214 1. Blackbirds. 2. Starlings. 3. Bird populations— North America. 4. Birds- North America. I. Stehn, Robert A., joint author. II. Title. III. Series: United States. Fish and Wildlife Service. Special scientific report— wildlife; no. 214. SK361.A256 no. 214 [QL696.P2475] 639 '.97 '90973s [598.8'81] 78-23689 NOTE: Use of trade names does not imply U.S. Government endorsement of commercial products. POPULATION TRENDS OF BLACKBIRDS AND STARLINGS IN NORTH AMERICA, 1966-76 By Richard A. Dolbeer Robert A. Stehn ^O WiLO^ UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE Special Scientific Report— Wildlife No. 214 Washington, D.C. • 1979 Population Trends of Blackbirds and Starlings in North America, 1966-76 by Richard A. Dolbeer and Robert A. Stehn U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Denver Wildlife Research Center Ohio Field Station, Sandusky, Ohio 44870 Abstract We used the North American Breeding Bird Survey to estimate population trends of red- winged blackbirds {Agelaius phoeniceus), common grackles {Quiscalus quiscula), brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater), and starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) for 1966-76 in the United States and Canada. Extended to a continental scale, the survey indicated significant increases in the mean number of redwings, cowbirds, and starlings observed per route. Starlings had the greatest in- crease, 4.96 birds per route or a 19.4% increase. The starling's greatest regional increases oc- curred in the western United States. Populations of redwings increased most in the St. Lawrence Valley and parts of the Midwest and Lower Plains regions. Cowbirds increased the most in the plains from Iowa to Saskatchewan and decreased over parts of the eastern and midwestern United States. Grackle populations indicated no change on a continental scale but did show strong increases in the Midwest and Lower Plains regions and declines in Appalachia. This knowledge of blackbird and starling population trends in specific areas should improve our ability to understand increasing bird-man conflicts, to evaluate proposed bird-damage control strategies, and to develop more effective, long-term solutions than are available at present. Red-winged blackbirds, common grackles, and brown-headed cowbirds, hereafter in this report re- ferred to as redwings, grackles, and cowbirds, have long conflicted with man's activities, particularly agri- culture, in North America (McAtee 1926; Meanley 1971). The starling, introduced into North America in 1890, has also become a major avian pest in many areas, often joining with blackbirds in large fall and winter roosts (Davis 1950; Kessel 1953; Meanley 1965). These four species, with a combined overwin- tering population of at least 0.5 billion birds (Meanley and Webb 1965; Meanley and Royall 1976), undoubt- edly constitute the most common group of birds in North America. Conflicts between blackbirds and starlings and people have become more frequent in recent years, re- sulting in new research and management efforts to define and alleviate the various agricultural, nuisance, and health problems these birds create (Graham 1978). An important component of these research and man- agement efforts is an objective appraisal of the trends and current status of blackbird and starling pop- ulations in North America. We need to know if the in- creased conflicts in a given area are the result of in- creased bird population levels or if they are caused by land-use changes, human encroachment, or just greater public awareness. Also, by examining popu- lation trends, we may be able to anticipate new conflict areas before problems become severe. The lack of such information has been a major obstacle to the ad- vancement of bird-damage control research and man- agement in the past. A few studies have provided estimates of population changes of territorial male redwings over a several- year period for small geographical areas (Dyer 1971; Dyer et al. 1973; Lefebvre et al. 1976). However, until the advent of the annual North American Breeding Bird Survey in 1966 (Robbins and Van Velzen 1967), a means of estimating breeding population trends of blackbirds and starlings on a wide scale was not avail- able. In 1966, 585 Breeding Bird Survey routes were run in the eastern United States and Canadian Pro- vinces. The survey was expanded to all contiguous 48 States and Canadian Provinces by 1968. Our objective was to use the Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate the population trends of redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings for 1966-76 in Canada and the United States. Erskine (1978) has summarized population trends for about 60 bird species for 1966-75 in Canada. Our report expands his Cp "^ - , . : 4 •' ^ « * » ••...; '3 " „ ^ i «^v wmm -% M ■■■" *■ " Fig. 1. Location of 62 ecological strata used in the analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data. Dashed line indicates northern limit of coverage by the Survey. (See Fig. A-l, page 32, for substrata locations.) work on blackbirds and starlings by presenting a more detailed and complete analysis for the continent north of Mexico. Our report is intended to serve as a reference source for a variety of people and agencies interested in black- bird and starling populations. The results are pre- sented in various tabular and graphic displays, based on both political and ecological boundaries, so that readers, whether they are interested in a specific section of a single State or Province, a region of North America, or the entire continent, will be able to extract the information they need. Methods About 1,700 Breeding Bird Survey routes currently are run annually in Canada and the United States. Each count is made along a 24. 5-mile (39.2-km) auto- mobile route established at random within 1 ° blocks of latitude and longitude. The observer records the number and species of all birds seen or heard in 3 min at each of 50 stops made at 0.5-mile (0.8-km) intervals. Considerable effort has gone into standardizing condi- tions under which surveys are conducted to reduce variability. Detailed discussions of the survey method- ology are presented by Robbins and Van Velzen (1969), Weber and Theberge (1977), and Erskine (1978). The Breeding Bird Survey data for redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings for 1966-76 were pro- vided by the Migratory Bird and Habitat Research Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland. For each route we used only the data from years that the route was completed under regular conditions (i.e., status code =1). The Fig. 2. Location of nine regions used in the analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data. Dashed line indicates northern limit of coverage by the Survey. number of years a route was run ranged from 1-11. In all, 2,275 routes were run for a total of 14,008 counts in the 11-year period. Robbins and Van Velzen (1969) divided the continent north of Mexico into 56 ecological strata. These have subsequently been modified, and we used 62 strata in our analysis (Fig. 1). We then combined the strata into nine regions (Fig. 2). We used the portion of a stratum found within one State or Province, hereafter referred to as a substratum, as our basic geographical unit for analysis, i.e., a stratum extending across several States would be divided into substrata by State boun- daries. There were 239 substrata in all. Analyses of populations on a State, stratum, regional, or con- tinental basis were obtained by pooling weighted sub- stratum statistics. The weighting factor was the fraction of the land area of interest (e.g., stratum) that the smaller geographical unit (e.g., substratum) en- compassed. We conducted the following analyses for each species using the total number of birds of a species recorded on a route in a year as the response variable. In all statistical tests, the criterion for significance wasP< 0.05. Between-year Changes in Population Indices A major problem in analyzing population changes was that some routes were not run in consecutive years. Thus, simple mean values for all routes run in a substratum often could not be meaningfully compared between years because of discontinuity of the data. In agreement with Erskine (1978), we believed that the best procedure was to base population change for any 2-year period only on those routes run in both years and to examine longer term trends by cumulating these between-year changes. To test the null hypothesis of no change in mean birds per route between years for all routes run in both years in each substratum, a paired-difference f-test was made for each consecutive pair of years: 1966-67, 1967-68 1975-76. In addition, we made a paired- difference f-test using mean birds per route per year (1974-76) minus mean birds per route per year (1966- 68) to test the hypothesis of no population change be- tween the first 3 and last 3 years of the 1 1-year period. Only those routes run at least once in the first 3 years and at least once in the last 3 years were used in this test. The weighted mean difference in birds per route be- tween 2 years for a State or stratum was estimated by multiplying the mean difference in birds per route for each substratum within the State or stratum by the weighting factor and summing the products. The weighted variance for the State or stratum was esti- mated by multiplying the variance of the mean dif- ference in the birds per route for each substratum by the square of the weighting factor and summing the products. The regional and continental analyses were likewise accomplished by combining weighted strata values or weighted regional values, respectively. Population Indices for 1966-76 We used the mid-year, 1971, as the arbitrary base- line year, assigning it a population index of 100. The indices for years before or after 1971 were calculated by cumulating the percentage changes for each pair of years. Thus, for all routes run in a substratum in both 1971 and 1972, if the mean birds per route for 1972 were 20% greater than in 1971, the index for 1972 would be 120. If the mean birds per route for 1973 were then 5% less than the mean birds per route for the same routes run in 1972, the index for 1973 would be 114. We similarly calculated the population indices for States, strata, and regions using the percentage change in weighted mean birds per route as described in the above section. Population Trends for 1966-76 To determine if the overall population change from 1966 to 1976 for a substratum had a significant linear trend, we developed a regression model to test the null hypothesis that the annual rate of change in mean birds per route (slope) of the combined routes of the substratum was not significantly different from zero. We allowed all routes in a substratum to have separate intercepts but only a common slope. The slope and var- iance of the slope for strata and States were calculated by multiplying the slope and variance of each sub- stratum within the State or stratum by the appro- priate weighting factors and squares of the weighting factors, respectively, and summing the products. The computation of regional and continental slopes and variances was similarly accomplished by summing weighted strata and regional values, respectively. Cautions in Interpretation of Results A survey as extensive and ambitious as this ob- viously is not without its faults and limitations, and care must be exercised in interpreting the results. One major concern involves the restriction of the survey to habitats within Va mile (0.4 km) of roadsides. Another involves the possibility that for certain species, such as the redwing, the survey mainly samples only a seg- ment of the population (e.g., territorial males) whose numerical fluctuations might not be representative of the total population. We make a basic, but untested, assumption that changes in numbers of redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings recorded by the survey bear some positive relation to changes in pop- ulation levels of these species for the total substratum area. Furthermore, some caution is suggested in com- paring numbers of birds per route among areas for a species. The conspicuousness of a species may vary be- tween areas owing to habitat differences, differences in chronology of nesting at time of the survey, or other behavioral or environmental factors. We cannot adjust for these possible sources of variation at present. How- ever, we believe them unimportant in our analyses because we are primarily concerned with population trends and not comparisons of density indices among areas. Appendix 1 provides an example of the calculations made in conducting the various analyses and elab- orates on some of the assumptions made in analyzing the data. Results Geographic Distribution of Populations in Breeding Season The mean numbers of birds per route for redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings, 1966-76, are de- picted in Figs. 3-6. If we assume that the number of birds per route is a valid index of density for each species during the breeding season, redwings, grackles, and starlings reached their highest densities in the mid-Atlantic and midwestern United States and Fig. 3. Breeding season distribution for red-winged blackbirds, 1966-76. Heavy dashed line indicates northern limit of coverage of Survey: light dashed line represents approximate northern limit of breeding range (Godfrey 1966). cowbirds in the Central Plains from Kansas to Sas- katchewan. On a State or Province level, redwings were most dense in Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana; grackles in Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey; star- lings in New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Ohio; and cow- birds in North Dakota, Kansas, and South Dakota (Table 1). Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois were each among the 10 highest States in number of birds per route for redwings, grackles, and starlings. Appendix 2 lists for each species the mean number of birds per route, 1966- 76, for all States and Provinces and for their respective substrata. The 10 substrata showing the greatest mean birds per route for each species are listed in Table 2. Figures 3-6 indicate that the Breeding Bird Survey does not sample parts of the northern limits of the range of redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings in boreal Canada. Populations of these four species are generally sparse and widely scattered in these range extremities (Erskine 1971, 1977), so these areas are of little significance in our analysis of continental popula- tion changes. However, this limitation should be kept in mind in the analysis of populations in the Boreal Forest region. Population Trends Continent On a continental scale, the survey indicated signifi- cant positive annual rates of change among redwings, cowbirds, and starlings. Cowbirds and starlings also indicated significant increases in the mean number of birds per route in 1974-76 compared with the same routes run in 1966-68 (Table 3). Starlings showed the greatest absolute and percentage increase (4.96 birds per route, 19.4%), whereas redwings had the greatest Fig. 4. Breeding season distribution for common grackles, 1966-76. Heavy dashed line indicates northern limit of coverage of Survey; light dashed line represents approximate northern limit of breeding range (Godfrey 1966). Table 1. States ranking highest in mean number of birds per Breeding Bird Survey route, 1966-76, for red-winged blackbirds, common grackles, brown-headed cowbirds, and starlings. The values for all States and Provinces can be found in Appendix 2. Redwings Grackles Cowbirds Starlings Mean Mean Mean Mean birds/ birds/ State birds/ birds/ Rant State route State route (Province) route State route 1 Ohio 250.9 Delaware 166.6 N. Dakota 45.1 New Jersey 161.8 2 Illinois 198.1 Maryland 145.3 Kansas 38.9 Rhode Island 159.2 3 Indiana 178.6 New Jersey 144.6 South Dakota 36.0 Ohio 146.8 4 Iowa 161.3 Kentucky 139.2 Nebraska 27.3 New York 121.3 5 Wisconsin 159.4 Illinois 138.9 Oklahoma 27.2 Delaware 117.6 6 North Dakota 150.7 Virginia 120.2 Missouri 22.2 Indiana 115.9 7 New York 141.6 Indiana 106.9 Wisconsin 20.9 Maryland 115.3 8 South Dakota 130.7 Ohio 106.2 Iowa 20.3 Illinois 102.6 9 Louisiana 96.8 Pennsylvania 99.0 Texas 18.8 Michigan 98.6 10 Pennsylvania 95.4 Tennessee 93.0 Saskatchewan 17.3 Massachusetts 97.5 Fig. 5. Breeding season distribution for brown-headed cowbirds, 1966-76. Heavy dashed line indicates northern limit of coverage of Survey; light dashed line represents approximate northern limit of breeding range (Godfrey 19661. rate of change (0.84 bird per route per year). Grackles indicated no significant change, although both the yearly rate of change and absolute change (1974-76 minus 1966-68) were positive. Overall, redwings were by far the species most often recorded (weighted mean birds per route = 50.4), followed by starlings (30.4), grackles (24.2), and cowbirds (10.5). Regions Based on the mean number of birds on routes run in 1966-68 and 1974-76, redwings showed significant in- creases in the Northeast, Boreal Forest, Midwest, and Lower Plains regions (Table 3). The annual rate of change indicated significant increases in these same four regions as well as in the Southeast, Upper Plains, and Northwest regions. The only significant decrease occurred in the Appalachia Region. Overall, the North- east, Midwest, and Lower Plains regions, which are connected through the eastern Great Lakes and Mis- sissippi River Valley, showed the greatest significant increases for redwings. For grackles, the paired route data for 1966-68 and 1974-76 indicated significant increases in the Boreal Forest, Midwest, Lower Plains, and Upper Plains. A significant annual rate of change was positive in the Southeast, Midwest, and Lower Plains (Table 3). Sig- nificant declines were recorded in the adjacent North- east and Appalachia regions. Thus, with the exception of the Northeast-Appalachia region, grackles appear to have increased significantly throughout most of their range in the past 11 years, especially in the Midwest and Lower Plains regions. Cowbirds had significant increases in the Lower Plains and Upper Plains regions based on the paired- route data for 1966-68 and 1974-76 (Table 3) and in the Southeast, Boreal Forest, Upper Plains, and North- west based on the annual rate of change data. The Appalachia and Midwest regions indicated significant decreases. Fig. 6. Breeding season distribution for starlings, 1966-76. Heavy dashed line indicates northern limit of coverage of Survey; light dashed line represents approximate northern limit of breeding range (Godfrey 1966). Table 2. Substrata in the United States and Canada ranking highest in mean number of birds per Breeding Bird Survey route. 1966-76, for red-winged blackbirds, common grackles, brown-headed cowbirds and starlings. A substratum had to contain a minimum of four routes to be included. The values for all substrata can be found in Appendix 2. Redwings Grackles Cowbirds Starlings Mean Mean Mean Mean birds/ birds/ birds/ birds/ Rank Substratum roule Substratum route Substratum route Substratum route 1 SW California (82)a 641.6 NE Illinois (16) 258.7 NE Kansas (32) 59.6 S Ontario (161 260.2 2 WOhio (31) 320.4 SE Pennsylvania (10) 257.4 E S. Dakota 1371 53.7 NW New York (161 224.2 3 SE Wisconsin (161 318.6 N Kentuckv (15) 217.5 C N. Dakota 137) 48.0 SE Pennsylvania (10) 211.8 4 E Arkansas 1 51 273.7 S Ontario 116) 192.6 C Kansas (34) 48.0 NE Illinois (16) 210.5 5 NE Ohio 1241 272.8 W Virginia (13) 189.3 C Nebraska (341 44.0 S New Jersey 1 4) 184.1 6 NW New York (16) 225.4 Delaware ( 4) 166.6 E Kansas (33) 39.8 NWOhio (16) 178.4 7 C Indiana (31) 222.3 W Kentucky (14) 166.4 SW N. Dakota (391 39.0 LongIs..N.Y. ( 8) 171.2 8 C N. Dakota (37) 221.5 C Maryland (10) 164.4 E Nebraska (321 38.9 WOhio (31) 170.2 9 N Indiana 116) 220.5 SE Indiana (15) 156.2 EN. Dakota (40) 38.1 C Maryland (10) 164.6 Id C Illinois (31) 205.4 E W. Virginia (13) 155.3 C Saskatchewan (371 36.0 SE Ontario 118) 163.0 "Stratum numbers in parentheses; see Fig. 1 . 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CtOOC/) o;007) UOOIO KOOJ1 kOOB KOCJOl cjiotDO o^roo ■£°=CCr- gO^CDH S^fflr- tfOOtZJ kOOOI aOOtO ^ S JS S OG < s £ = CD ■= o ai CD cc s * D- 2 ^ Q. || CO 0.1 || CU ^H at in Cw O CJ to o fi M o CO in ight talf orth mer 3 II O ^ m II CO II 0 II s"SZ< Fig. 7. Strata indicating a significant {P £ 0.05) annual rate of change for red-winged blackbirds. 1966-76, based on data from Table 4. The paired-route data for 1966-68 and 1974-76 indi- cated that significant increases for starlings have oc- curred in the Lower Plains, Upper Plains, and espec- ially Southwest regions (Table 3). The number of star- lings per route had more than doubled from 1968 to 1974-76 in the Southwest region. The annual rate of change was significantly positive in the Midwest, Upper Plains, and Northwest and significantly nega- tive in the Appalachia region. The Appalachia region was the only region in which both the paired comparison values for 1966-68:1974-76 and the annual rates of change values were negative for all four species. In fact, the Appalachia Region had 8 of the 21 negative signs for these measures of popula- tion trends in the nine regions during 1966-76. Con- versely, the Lower Plains region had all positive signs for these measures of population trends for all four species, and the paired-comparison data indicated sig- nificant increases for all four species. Strata Analysis at the stratum level provides a more de- tailed view of population trends than at the regional level, indicating key areas of change within the regions. Table 4 lists for redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings those strata within each region with sig- nificant annual rates of change in number of birds per route for 1966-76 and significant differences in mean number of birds per route for routes run in both 1966- 68 and 1974-76. This same information is presented graphically in Figs. 7 and 8 for redwings, Figs. 9 and 10 for grackles, Figs. 11 and 12 for cowbirds, and Figs. 13 and 14 for starlings. Table 5 presents the number of strata having significant population changes, 1966-76 for each species. Redwings exhibited by far their greatest increase in Stratum 18 (St. Lawrence Valley and southeastern On- tario) where the annual rate of change (1966-76) of 15.8 10 Table 4. Strata indicating significant (P < 0.05) annual rate of change (slope) in number of birds per Breeding Bird Survey route (1966-76) or a significant difference in mean number of birds per route for routes run at least once in 1966-68 and 1974-76 for red-winged blackbirds (RW), common grackles (GR), brown-headed cowbirds (CB), and starlings (ST). Slopes with less than 20 df and paired-route comparisons with less than five routes are excluded. Region Paired route comparison Mean birds/ Slope 1974-76 minus 1966-68 Percent Stratum Species route (1966-76) Difference change 1 RW 122.6 5.681 27)a#b GR 53.5 3.91 ( 27)* 2 ST 10.6 0.87 (115)* 3 RW 19.0 -1.93 (330)# CB 2.7 0.28(330)* 1.9(37)c* 146.2 4 RW 36.2 1.06(1191)* CB 9.3 0.37(1191)* 5 RW 186.5 5.60(154)* 11 RW 24.7 1.69(202)* 15.3(25)* 96.8 GR 62.0 4.24(202)# 24.4 (25)# 51.2 CB 5.1 0.23(202)* 1.7(25)# 43.6 13 RW 56.5 -1.75(573)* GR 118.1 -12.83(573)* CB 9.6 -0.40(573)* -2.4(59)# -23.5 ST 97.0 -5.07(573)* 21 RW 9.4 0.73(106)* 4.3 ( 9)# 51.2 GR 25.2 1.47(106)0 CB 15.5 4.6 ( 9)# 55.4 ST 27.5 2.32(106)* 22 GR 54.2 2.09(257)# CB 11.9 -0.42(257)# 23 GR 37.8 -13.491 46)* CB 4.1 -0.63 ( 46)* 24 RW 134.6 -3.15(676)* CB 10.4 -0.29(676)# 8 CB 6.5 -0.89 ( 41)* ST 142.5 7.40 ( 41)# 10 GR 207.6 -10.50(289)* -91.1(28)0 -37.8 CB 7.6 -0.40(2891* -4.5(28)# -45.5 12 RW 51.3 -1.34(258)# -14.3(26)* -28.4 GR 45.8 -2.00(258)* -11.4 (26)# CB 6.1 -0.39(258)* -3.4(26)* -42.5 18 RW 171.9 15.81(225)* 98.4(24)* 92.8 CB 26.8 0.90(225)* 26 RW 51.3 -3.14(103)# ST 39.9 -1.83 (103)# 27 RW 37.2 -1.03(295)* ST 65.2 -1.65(295)* 29 RW 6.5 1.38(106)* CB 3.1 0.41 (106)# ST 13.8 -1.10(106)# 30 RW 82.4 5.93(178)* 18.5(10)* 39.4 GR 4.2 4.1 (10)* 170.8 CB 17.2 6.7(10)# 23.3 14 RW 58.5 3.72(381)* 19.6 (37)# 45.9 ST 62.5 2.55(381)* 15.2(37)*- 33.8 15 CB 14.6 -5.4(16)# -29.2 16 RW 205.4 3.59(511)* 31.0(55)0 17.4 GR 134.4 23.0(55)* 22.1 ST 174.2 3.53(511)* 17 RW 207.9 9.40(180)* 55.9 (22)# 31.9 CB 21.5 -0.66(180)# Southeast Appalachia Northeast Boreal Forest Midwest 11 Table 4. (continued) Region Stratum Species Mean birds/ route Paired route comparison 1974-76 minus 1966-68 Slope (1966-76) Difference Percent change Midwest Lower Plains Upper Plains Southwest Northwest 20 6 7 19 33 34 35 53 32 36 37 38 39 40 81 82 83 84 88 92 62 67 85 89 93 RW GR ST ST GR ST RW GR CB RW GR ST CB RW GR CB ST RW CB RW GR CB ST CB CB ST RW GR CB ST GR CB GR CB ST RW CB RW ST RW CB ST CB ST GR CB ST RW CB ST RW ST CB RW 99.2 28.7 54.6 10.8 0.4 0.6 25.4 32.5 16.5 38.5 23.0 14.6 39.3 18.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.0 25.6 135.6 69.7 25.5 49.0 8.4 40.6 14.1 75.3 8.3 24.2 13.7 6.8 16.0 88.3 23.5 1.6 258.3 5.3 2.5 3.2 21.4 0.9 10.5 4.2 58.2 1.2 2.7 12.0 3.2 6.2 24.2 55.3 36.1 5.8 11.3 2.37(280)* 2.35(280)* 3.07(280)* 0.79(220)* 0.25(102)# 0.18(102)# 1.04(188)* 0.62(188)* 1.97(393)* 1.35(393)* 1.86 ( 45)* 0.13 ( 45)* 0.15 ( 45)# 0.53 ( 45)# 0.41 (104)* 1.19(104)* 3.14(350)* -2.38(350)* 0.99(350)* 1.54(350)# -0.41 (127)# 1.06(177)# 1.37(177)# 1.24(137)* 2.01(137)* 1.70(137)* 0.89 (240)* 1.66(159)* 0.22(112)* -38.36 ( 61)# -1.43 ( 61)# 0.29 ( 44)* 0.691 44)* 2.17(104)* 0.50(220)* 0.131 0.29 ( 1.471 0.60( 36)# 36)# 36)# 66)* 5.59 ( 66)# 6.36 ( 68)# 5.49 ( 68)# 0.51(125)# 1.17(191)* 13.3(28)* 11.1 ( 8)# 6.8(43)# 13.9 (43)# -51.7 ( 8)* 19.0 ( 8)* 3.0 ( 8)* 3.8(27)# 4.8(27)# 36.4(18)* 11.9 (18)# 13.0(10)* 1.4 ( 9)# -5.2 ( 9)* 48.7 ( 7)# 2.2 ( 5)# 2.7 ( 9)* 86.9 12.5 (20)# 61.3 23.5(20)* 125.0 15.4(43)* 68.4 14.4(43)* 98.6 5.2(43)* 46.4 12.2 (19)# 36.0 45.3 32.5 31.1 -40.7 67.6 81.1 84.4 42.5 55.7 74.8 76.9 66.7 -54.2 121.4 115.8 270.0 "Figures in parentheses are degrees of freedom. bSee Table 3 for symbols denoting probability level. cFigures in parentheses are number of paired routes. 12 Fig. 8. Strata indicating a significant [P s 0.05) difference in mean number of red-winged blackbirds per route for routes run in 1966-68 compared to 1974-76, based on data from Table 4. was almost twice that for any other stratum. The abso- lute change in mean birds per route (98.4) from 1966-68 to 1974-76 also was almost twice that of any other stratum. Adjacent Strata 16, 17, and 20 also had sig- nificant annual rates of change, indicating a consistent pattern of population increase in redwings from the St. Lawrence Valley of Quebec through the southern Great Lakes into Minnesota (Fig. 7). Six strata showed significant declines in annual rates of change, the greatest occurring in southwestern Arizona (Stratum 82). Two strata showed significant declines in paired-route comparisons (1966-68:1974-76); the greatest was in the Upper Plains area of the United States and Canada (Stratum 38). Grackles showed significant increases from 1966 to 1 976 in 1 0 strata on the basis of annual rates of change and 8 strata on the basis of paired-route comparisons (1966-68:1974-76). The greatest increases occurred in Strata 11 (Southeast Piedmont), 40 (Dakotas-Minne- sota boundary), and the adjacent Strata 19 and 33 (Central Lower Plains). The only strata indicating sig- nificant declining populations were 32 (Iowa), and 23, 10, and 12 in the Appalachia-Northeast regions (Figs. 9, 10). Cowbirds, on a stratum level, experienced a rather complex pattern of population increase and decrease from 1966 to 1976. The greatest increases occurred in the Central Plains areas (Strata 32, 38, 34, 40) but sig- nificant increases also occurred in strata from the southeast and Gulf Coast to California. Significant de- clines were most obvious in strata in the Appalachia, Northeast, and Ohio Valley areas (Figs. 11, 12). Starling populations showed significant increases during 1966-76 in 17 strata on the basis of annual rate of change and 5 strata on the basis of paired-route comparisons (1966-68:1974-76). The major increases occurred in California (Stratum 92) and the southern Great Lakes (Strata 16, 20). The major declines sug- gested were in the Adirondacks-New England area (Strata 26, 27) and the central Appalachia area 13 GRACKLES ds/rte./vear) Fig. 9. Strata indicating a significant {P s 0.05) annual rate of change for common grackles, 1966-76, based on data from Table 4. ^O Fig. 10. Strata indicating a significant (P £ 0.05) difference in mean number of common grackles per route for routes run in 1966- 68 compared to 1974-76, based on data from Table 4. 14 Fig. 11. Strata indicating a significant IP < 0.05) annual rate of change for brown-headed cowbirds, 1966-76, based on data from Table 4. (Stratum 13; Figs. 13, 14). Substrata Appendix 2 lists for redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings year-by-year population trends, annual rate of change, paired-route comparisons (1966- 68:1974-76), and appropriate significance levels for each substratum by State or Province. Tables 6-9 list the 10 substrata showing the greatest positive and negative annual rates of change that were significant for these respective species. Figures 15-18 show all substrata having significant annual rates of change, 1966-76, for these same respective species. These figures and Appendix 2 point out areas of change not depicted at the regional and stratum level of analysis and provide the most detailed view of population change now available. Among redwings, the greatest increases occurred in southern California, southeast Wisconsin, and upper New York. A major area of consistent increase ap- peared to be in the Mississippi Valley from Wisconsin to Louisiana. Major decreases were recorded in Ari- zona, southern New York, Pennsylvania, and Indiana (Fig. 15). Analysis at the substratum level for grackles indi- cated a block of major increase in Ohio, as well as in the Dakotas. Major declines occurred through the Appalachia and Chesapeake Bay areas (Fig. 16). Cowbirds increased the most in the central and northern prairie States. All 10 substrata showing greatest positive rates of change in Table 8 were located from Saskatchewan to Oklahoma. The most apparent cluster of substrata showing declines was in the eastern and midwestern States from eastern New York through Ohio to Wisconsin (Fig. 17). Starlings showed substantial increases in the sub- strata around the lower Great Lakes, particularly 15 Fig. 12. Strata indicating a significant (P < 0.05) difference in mean number of brown-headed cowbirds per route for routes run in 1966-68 compared to 1974-76, based on data from Table 4. Lake Michigan, in central California, and in the central Kentucky area. Few major decreases were revealed; the most significant by far were in western Virginia and western Maryland (Fig. 18). States and Provinces The analyses of population change on a substratum or stratum level should be the most meaningful and sensitive ecologically because of the supposed simi- larity of habitat and bird population densities throughout the geographical unit. However, pop- ulation changes at the State or Province level are of interest to many people and particularly to agencies that deal with bird-people conflicts within political units. Thus, along with the analyses of population trends for all substrata in each State and Province summarized in Appendix 2, we also present the same information for each State and Province. Table 10 lists for redwings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings all States and Provinces showing significant annual rates of change (1966-76) or significant differences in mean birds per route for routes run in both 1966-68 and 1974-76. Table 5 summarizes the number of States and Provinces with significant population changes for each species. California, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Illinois showed the greatest increases during 1966-76 for redwings, whereas Arizona, Ohio, Indiana, and Connecticut indi- cated the greatest decreases. For grackles, Ohio, Indiana, and Minnesota evidenced the greatest increases, whereas Virginia, Maryland, and Iowa had the greatest declines. Cowbirds increased most in South Dakota, Iowa, Montana, and Minnesota and declined most in Arizona, Connecticut, New Bruns- wick, Virginia, and Ohio. Starlings showed their great- est increases in British Columbia, Kentucky, Cali- fornia, Rhode Island, and Manitoba. The only States or Provinces indicating significant declines in star- lings were Virginia, Quebec, Maine, Ontario, and Mis- sissippi. Illinois is the only State or Province for which we have historical data of a quantitative nature on blackbird and starling populations (Graber and Graber 1963). Redwing populations approximately doubled from 1908 to 1958, whereas grackle and cowbird pop- ulations showed slight declines. The population trends for 1966-76 indicated similar trends are still occurring 16 STARLINGS (birds/route/year) ■ >4 0-4 -40 Fig. 13. Strata indicating a significant (P < 0.05) annual rate of change for starlings. 1966-76. based on data from Table 4. (Appendix 2). The annual rate of change for redwings was significantly positive on a Statewide basis. The major increase occurred in Substratum 31 which covers 71% of the State. Stable populations were indi- cated for both grackles and cowbirds from 1966 to 1976. Starlings were not in the State in 1906-09; in 1957 they were the seventh most common species. No significant increase in starlings occurred from 1966 to 1976. Discussion This report documents population trends for red- wings, grackles, cowbirds, and starlings from 1966 to 1976 and will not attempt any analysis of why popula- tion changes have occurred, although a few general comments will be made. The main intent of the fol- lowing discussion is to comment on various bird- people conflicts in relation to population changes from 1966 to 1976. The analyses of Breeding Bird Survey data have re- vealed a rather complex pattern of population change over North America for these four species. For the four species combined, significant population increases at the substratum, stratum, and State level outnumbered declines by a factor of at least 2 to 1 (Table 5). Al- though all species declined in at least some areas, there has been a net increase on a continental scale of redwing, cowbird, and starling populations. Grackles, although not indicating a population increase on a con- tinental level, have definitely increased in parts of the Midwest and Lower and Upper Plains regions. These population changes help explain some of the bird- people conflicts we have today. Winter Roosts in Southeastern United States The increase in complaints concerning winter- roosting populations of blackbirds and starlings in the southeastern United States, particularly Tennessee 17 STARLINGS (abs. chg./rte. I >20 0-20 -20-0 Fig. 14. Strata indicating a significant (P £ 0.05) difference in mean number of starlings per route for routes run in 1966-68 compared to 1974-76, based on data from Table 4. Table 5. Number of strata, substrata, and United States States and Canadian Provinces with significant (P < 0.05) annual rates of change (slope) for 1966-76 and/or significant mean paired difference for routes run at least once in 1966-68 and 1974-76 for red-winged blackbirds, common grackles, brown-headed cowbirds, and starlings per Breeding Bird Survey route. Paired route comparison Slope 1974-76 minus 1966-68 Insuff. data Insuff. data Geographic- (<20df)or (<5rts.)or area Species Pos. Neg. Zero out of range Pos. Neg. Zero out of range Stratum Redwing 22 7 30 3 10 2 34 16 (N=62) Crackle 10 6 30 16 8 2 30 22 Cowbird 16 9 33 4 13 4 29 16 Starling 17 4 38 3 5 1 40 16 Totals 65 26 131 26 36 9 133 70 Substratum Redwing 47 22 98 72 9 2 79 149 (N = 239) Crackle 28 18 94 99 8 4 73 154 Cowbird 35 15 116 73 7 8 75 149 Starling 23 10 134 72 4 0 86 149 Totals 133 65 442 316 28 14 313 601 State or Redwing 17 7 32 1 11 2 39 5 Province Crackle 13 7 28 9 10 2 33 12 (N=57) Cowbird 17 8 31 1 9 3 40 5 Starling 13 5 38 1 8 0 44 5 Totals 60 ■11 129 12 38 7 156 27 18 Table 6. The 10 substrata in the United States and Canada with greatest annual rates of change (1966-76) for mean number of red-winged blackbirds per Breeding Bird Survey route. Direction of slope Rank Substrata* Increase 1 SE California (82) 2 SE Wisconsin (16) 3 NE New York (18) 4 E Arkansas (5) 5 SW Kentucky (4) 6 NE Missouri (31) 7 N Illinois (16) 8 SW Saskatchewan (38) 9 SC Colorado (84) 10 C Illinois (31) Decrease 1 SW Arizona (82) 2 S Alberta (38) 3 NW Illinois (32) 4 C Indiana (31) 5 SW Pennsylvania (22) 6 E South Carolina (3) 7 E New York (13) 8 C Maryland (10) 9 Connecticut (12) 10 SW New York (24) Slope df Mean birds/route 92.12*b 32 641.6 17.92* 104 318.6 15.72* 24 162.2 14.09* 61 273.7 12.83* 23 91.1 12.38* 22 151.5 11.45* 24 160.4 11.45* 24 82.9 11.64* 34 122.5 10.21* 193 205.4 80.47* 29 134.6 -7.26* 41 58.3 -7.20* 60 181.8 -7.18# 53 222.3 -6.33* 63 102.2 -6.27* 41 30.9 -5.21* 118 162.2 -4.14* 159 85.0 -3.58* 82 56.3 -3.58* 299 157.9 aStratum number in parentheses. bProbability level P< 0.01 = *; 0.01 => co 7 - .69 •76 .74 .72 #68 - .75 - 1 i .70 .71 1 i 60 70 80 90 100 POPULATION INDEX 110 Fig. 19. Relationship between population index of red-winged blackbirds in breeding season and estimated bushels of field corn lost to blackbirds in August-September for Ohio, 1968-76. Population indices are from Appendix 2. Esti- mates of corn loss are from unpublished data, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Animal Damage Control, Columbus, Ohio. Numbers beside each data point represent years. No estimate of corn loss was made in 1973. Conclusions States may have enhanced survival rates because of large amounts of waste corn from mechanical har- vesting (Dolbeer et al. 1978). Simplistic management approaches to alleviate certain of these conflicts, such as population reduction programs with surfactants on winter roosts (Lefebvre and Seubert 1970), might prove to be large and expensive undertakings pro- viding, at best, only a temporary solution {Dolbeer et al. 1976). The programs might even exacerbate prob- lems by favoring starlings at the expense of native species (Dolbeer et al. 1978). We believe that informa- tion on population trends of these species, such as pre- sented in this report, combined with studies into the specific causes of the population changes, should im- prove our ability to develop more effective, long-term solutions to these conflicts than are available at present. Acknowledgments D. Ft. Bystrak and C. S. Robbins of the Migratory Bird and Habitat Research Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland, were very helpful in providing survey data. D. L. Otis provided us with timely statistical advice. M. E. Laderach, P. C. Kleinhenz, K. M. Cote, and B. F. Dotson helped with maps and typing. C. S. Robbins and A. J. Erskine kindly reviewed the manuscript. Finally, appreciation is extended to the many people across North America who participated in the Breeding Bird Survey and made such analyses possible. The Breeding Bird Survey is an outstanding coop- erative effort of government agencies and private citi- zens that has provided valuable information on pop- ulation trends of many bird species across Canada and the United States. Although a survey as extensive and ambitious as this obviously is not without limitations, we believe that for the ubiquitous redwing, grackle, cowbird, and starling it has provided a remarkable overview of the complex pattern of population increase and decrease across North America for 1966-76. In general, blackbird and starling populations are in- creasing across much of North America. Combined with the increasing human population and intensifica- tion of agriculture, we anticipate increased conflicts between these birds and people in the future. We would like to caution against simplistic ap- proaches to reducing these conflicts. Many of the pop- ulation increases are undoubtedly related to land-use changes favorable to the problem species. For example, the recent expansion of corn acreage in southern Quebec is probably a major reason for the in- creasing redwing population and concurrent damage problems in that area (Martin 1977; Erskine 1978). Also, grackles overwintering in the southern United References Burtt, H. E., and M. L. Giltz. 1977. Seasonal directional pat- terns of movements and migrations of starlings and black- birds in North America. Bird-Banding 48:259-271. Cardinell, H. A., and D. W. Hayne. 1945. Corn injury by red- wings in Michigan. Mich. State Coll., Agric. Exp. Stn. Tech. Bull. 198.59 pp. Clore, J. 1976. Commercial pest management of birds in grapes. Proc. Vertebr. Pest Conf. 7:63-67. Cote, K. M., and P. P. Woronecki. 1978. Avitrol® use in Ohio in 1972-1977 to protect field corn from blackbird depre- dations. U.S. Fish Wildl. Serv., Denver Wildlife Research Center, Ohio Field Station, Sandusky. Bird Damage Res. Rep. 70. 11 pp. (Unpubl. rep.) Crase, F. T., C. P. Stone, R. W. DeHaven, and D. F. Mott. 1976. Bird damage to grapes in the United States with emphasis on California. U.S. Fish Wild. Serv., Spec. Sci. Rep. -Wildl. 197. 18 pp. Davis, D. E. 1950. The growth of starling, Sturnus vulgaris, populations. Auk 67:460-465. DeHaven, R. W. 1973. Winter population trends of the starling in California. Am. Birds 27:836-838. De Vos, A. 1964. Range changes of birds in the Great Lakes Region. Am. Midi. Nat. 71:489-502. Dolbeer, R. A. 1978. Movement and migration patterns for red-winged blackbirds; a continental overview. Bird- Banding 49:17-34. 27 Dolbeer. R. A., C. R. Ingram, and J. L. Seubert. 1976. Mod- eling as a management tool for assessing the impact of blackbird control measures. Proc. Vertebr. Pest Conf. 7:35- 45. Dolbeer, R. A., P. P. Woronecki, A. R. Stickley, Jr., and S. B. White. 1978. Agricultural impact of a winter popula- tion of blackbirds and starlings. Wilson Bull. 90:31-44. Dyer, M. I. 1971. Territorial male red-winged blackbird distri- bution in Wood County, Ohio. Proc. Bird Control Semin. 4:185-194. Dyer, M. I., D. B. Siniff, S. G. Curtis, and J. S. Webb. 1973. Distribution of red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus L.I breeding populations in the Lake Erie region of the United States and Canada. Pages 213-234 in Proceedings of the General Meeting of Working Group on Granivorous Birds, IBP, PT Section, The Hague, Holland. Erskine, A. J. 1971. Some new perspectives on the breeding ecology of common grackles. Wilson Bull. 83:352-370. Erskine, A. J. 1977. Birds in boreal Canada: Communities, densities, and adaptations. Can. Wildl. Serv. Rep. Ser. 41. 73 pp. Erskine, A. J. 1978. The first ten years of the co-operative Breeding Bird Survey in Canada. Can. Wildl. Serv. Rep. Ser. 42. 61 pp. Giltz, M. L., and T. M. Stockdale. 1960. The red-winged blackbird storv. Ohio Agric. Res. Dev. Cent. Spec. Circ. 95. 19 pp. Godfrey, W. E. 1966. The birds of Canada. Natl. Mus. Can. Bull. 203. 428 pp. Graber, R. R., and J. W. Graber. 1963. A comparative study of bird populations in Illinois, 1906-1909 and 1956-1958. 111. Nat. Hist. Surv. Bull. 28:383-528. Graham, F., Jr. 1978. Problem birds: Blockbuster weapon on way. Audubon 80:99-101. Kessel, B. 1953. Distribution and migration of starlings in North America. Condor 55:49-67. Lefebvre, P. W., and J. L. Seubert. 1970. Surfactants as blackbird stressing agents. Proc. Vertebr. Pest Conf. 4:156- 161. Lefebvre, P. W., J. S. Webb, B. Meanlev, A. E. Hester, P. L. O'Halloran, C. P. Stone, and D. W. Smith. 1976. Breeding redwing populations of the Arkansas Grand Prairie (1962-1969). U.S. Fish Wildl. Serv., Denver Wildlife Research Center, Gainesville Field Station, Work Unit P-F- 23.4. 5 pp. (Unpubl. rep.) Martin, M. L. 1977. Flocking and roosting activities of the red-winged blackbird in southern Quebec. M. S. Thesis. McGill Univ., Montreal, Quebec. 102 pp. McAtee, W. L. 1926. Blackbird roosts. Auk 43:373-374. Meanley, B. 1965. The roosting behavior of the red-winged blackbird in the southern United States. Wilson Bull. 77- 217-228. Meanley, B. 1971. Blackbirds and the southern rice crop. U.S. Dep. Inter., Bur. Sport Fish. Wildl., Resour. Publ. 100. 64 pp. Meanley, B. 1975. The blackbird-starling roost problem. Atl. Nat. 30:107-110. Meanley, B. 1976. Distribution and migration of the common grackle (movements between States and Provinces). U.S. Fish Wildl. Serv., Denver Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Md. Spec. Rep., Work Unit P-F-24.3. 54 pp. (Unpubl. rep.) Meanley, B., and W. C. Royall, Jr. 1976. Nationwide esti- mates of blackbirds and starlings. Proc. Bird Control Semin. 7:39-40. Meanley, B., and J. S. Webb. 1965. Nationwide population estimates of blackbirds and starlings. Atl. Nat. 20:189-191. Monroe, B. L., Jr., and L. S. Cronholm. 1977. Blackbird study. Final Report, Kentucky Environmental Quality Commission, Univ. Louisville, Louisville, Kv. 61 pp. Mott, D. F., and C. P. Stone. 1973. Bird damage to blue- berries in the United States. U.S. Dep. Inter., Bur. Sport Fish. Wildl., Spec. Sci. Rep.-Wildl. 172. 15 pp. Oberholser, H. C. 1974. The bird life of Texas. Vol. 2. Univ. Texas Press. Austin. Pages 521-1069. Potvin, N., J. M. Bergeron, and C. Fernet. 1976. Regime ali- mentaire d'oiseaux frequentant un agrosysteme. Can. J. Zool. 54:1992-2000. Robbins, C. S., and A. J. Erskine. 1975. Population trends in nongame birds in North America. Trans. N. Am. Wildl. Nat. Resour. Conf. 40:288-293. Robbins, C. S., and W. T. Van Velzen. 1967. The Breeding Bird Survey, 1966. U.S. Dep. Inter., Bur. Sport Fish. Wildl., Spec. Sci. Rep.-Wildlife 102. 43 pp. Robbins, C. S., and W. T. Van Velzen. 1969. The Breeding Bird Survey, 1967 and 1968. U.S. Dep. Inter., Bur. Sport Fish. Wildl., Spec. Sci. Rep.-Wildlife 124. 107 pp. Royall, C. W., Jr. 1977. Starling band recoveries related to Kentucky and Tennessee. U.S. Fish Wildl. Serv., Denver Wildlife Research Center, Bird Damage Research Report 35. 13 pp. (Unpubl. rep.) Stickley, A. R., Jr., D. T. Palmer, and D. L. Otis. 1978. Eval- uation and results of a blackbird and mammal damage survey to mature field corn over a large (three-state) area. Proc. Am. Soc. Test. Mater. 2: In press. Stone, C. P. 1973. Bird damage to tart cherries in Michigan, 1972. Proc. Bird Control Semin. 6:19-23. Stone, C. P., D. F. Mott. J. F. Besser, and J. W. De Grazio. 1972. Bird damage to corn in the United States in 1970. Wilson Bull. 84:101-105. Virgo, B. B. 1971. Bird damage to sweet cherries in the Niag- ara Peninsula, Ontario. Can. J. Plant Sci. 51:415-423. Walkinshaw, L. H., and W. R. Faust. 1974. Some aspects of Kirtland's warbler breeding biology. Jack-Pine Warbler 52:65-75. Weber, W. C, and J. B. Theberge. 1977. Breeding Bird Survey counts as related to habitat and date. Wilson Bull. 89:543-561. 29 Appendix 1 An analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for red- wings in one substratum is included to clarify the actual calculations performed and to illustrate some of the problems involved in the analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data. The substratum chosen, west-central Ohio (Stratum 31), is not entirely representative in that the number of survey routes and their coverage is better than average. Also, the mean number of redwings recorded per route is among the highest for any substratum. The actual data, total redwings re- corded each year on the 15 routes, are tabulated in Table A-l. The calculated population index and sum- mary statistics for this substratum can be found in Appendix 2 (Ohio, Stratum 31). The assumption was made that the bird populations within the same geographic area, the substratum, are in fact related to each other as they are likely in- fluenced by common environmental, agricultural, or land-use factors. Thus when survey results from all routes of the substratum were combined, if a pattern emerged as statistically significant, it served as a valid index to change in the entire population in that area. We therefore assumed simple random sampling rather than stratified random sampling within each of the substrata considered. Each substratum was then in turn considered as a unit in a stratified sample of a larger geographic area in order to examine stratum or State changes. The substratum statistics were appro- priately weighted by the proportion of the total land area in each substratum. This method of analysis de- parted from a stratified random sample within sub- strata as used by Erskine (1978) and Robbins and Erskine (1975) in that individual routes were not weighted according to the portion or number of degree blocks of longitude and latitude (from 0.5 to 2.5) each route represents. This slightly different approach con- tributes to differences in the exact numbers we report and the outcome of other analyses done with the same Breeding Bird Survey data. The method for calculation of the yearly population index values, 1966-76, was based on the percentage change in the mean number of birds recorded for all routes in the substratum run in consecutive years. The percentage change was cumulated forward or back- ward from year 1971 which was assigned an index of 100. For example, consider the change in the redwings indexed in Ohio, Stratum 31, from 1973 to 1974. The mean number of birds on those routes run both years changed from 394.6 to 294.6, a difference of -100.0. The percentage change was -100/394.6 = -25.3%. The index value in 1973 was 98.2; thus in 1974 it would become 98.2 + (98.2 X -0.253) = 73.3. We tested the mean difference for the eight paired observations to see if it differed significantly from zero using t = _d_ -100.0 54.4 1.84, n.s. Additional statistical analysis was based on a re- gression model to examine any linear trend in the num- ber of birds observed from 1966 through 1976. The variation in the mean number of birds recorded on dif- ferent survey routes within a substratum was not con- sidered relevant for the determination of change in numbers with time. A change over 10 years from 500 to 400 birds recorded on a route was equivalent for an index to a change from 200 to 100 birds over the same period. Therefore, in the regression model each route was allowed to have its own mean value or intercept. The reduction in sum of squares due to the best single slope (common slope) was tested against the remaining variation. The resulting regression analysis and the test to determine if the slope was significantly dif- ferent from zero for Substratum 31 in Ohio are shown in Table A-2. 30 Table A-l. Number of red-winged blackbirds recorded for each route in Substratum 31 in Ohio, 1966-76. Summary statistics are presented in Appendix 2. Number of redwing ;s recorded per year Mean Route birds/ no. 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 71+ 75 76 route 12 181 230 - 1+0 81+ 127 - 106 85 97 113 118.1 13 203 198 181+ 363 12U 1+79 561 292 - - 292 299.6 26 590 385 - - - - - - - - - 1+87-5 27 307 - - 303 - - 210 183 281 - 196 2U6.7 32 138 222 9h - - - 365 353 173 187 170 212.8 33 85 169 197 2l+0 223 ll+8 ll+9 196 136 150 152 167.7 3>+ U63 288 289 271 206 252 166 200 - - 175 256.7 35 730 - 1+01 318 289 31+5 299 265 - - - 378.1 Ul 223 215 189 139 19l+ 120 138 - - - 97 l6U.lt 1+2 63U 559 625 612 729 673 587 763 621 502 1+87 617.U 6o 303 327 321+ 380 1+13 1+21 602 1+05 225 311+ 255 360.8 65 U98 0 921+ 903 9I+0 698 855 1010 632 1+88 551 681.7 66 3^3 3^7 27I+ 20l+ 368 199 207 119 - 237 206 250.1+ 67 UlU 215 1+99 1+50 289 2l+7 176 1U1 201+ - - 292.8 68 299 U03 22l+ - - 217 - 215 - - - 271.6 Means for 336.5- -273.7 390.6- ■388.0 350.8- ■337.2 379-7- -357.0 312.0- ■289.7 320. U paired 267.5- -31+7.5 356. 1+- -350.8 358.2- -37U.0 39U.6-29I+.6 282.1 -276.2 routes: Percent change: +22,g -23.0 +0.7 +1.6 +U.0 +U.U -6.0 -25.3 -7.1 -2.1 31 Table A-2. Linear regression analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data to test the hypothesis that the annual rate of change in birds/route (slope) is not significantly different from zero for red-winged blackbirds in Substratum 31, Ohio, 1966-76. degression model allows each route within substratum to have separate intercept but only a common slope. Source of variation df Sums of squares Mean squares F-value 15 means Single slope Residual 15 1 110 126 16,760,503.0 U9,32U.2 1,768,158.9 U9,32U.2 16,07^.2 3.069 Total 18,577,986.1 Error mean square = S = 16,07^.2 y.x b = single slope = -6.2799 \r f. t = (b - 0)/s^ = b/ V s2 /ZX2 - -6.2799/ ]/ 1607^. 2/1250. 7 — b y.x t = -1.75, df = 110, P < 0.10 32 -a s a CQ bo ■5 S ■a 33 Appendix 2 Population trends of red-winged blackbirds (RW), Canadian Provinces and their respective substrata, common grackles (GR), brown-headed cowbirds (CB), (Probability level P sO.Ol = *; 0.01

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CO LTN O ON <~ ON c— O 00 CM VD o ON On On LTN-* VD LT\ on o On On ON -d- on O H H on o ON H CM o o o o H rH o o H O O H H On CO H O O O H iH ON CO H J- o H H H On O H H -* o VD H I I VD VD E— CM .3- co o on $ ? w m 1 1 K a u to VD VD CO c— H -=r cm s • *- 3 O H •P H cd II U II > K pq fn tS W PQ En K O O CO ^ CC pq e-i k o ora kooco +3 "5 cd I '— J- co PC PQ Eh PC O CJ to > PC PQ Eh PC O CJ> CO CO a o O H O lt\ • CM H CM J- II II % cd As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interi or has responsibility fur most of our nationally owned public lands and natural res >urces. This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water resources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserv- ing the environmental and cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through out- door recreation. The Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The Department also has a major responsi- bility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in island territories under U.S. administration. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE EDITORIAL OFFICE AYLE9WORTH HALL. CSU FORT COLLINS. COLORADO 60523 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR INT 423 NOTE: Mailing lists are computerized. Please return address label with change of address.