Igrlculhire-Jll Xlibsral Hrts JMpgthnolojgg 59 Acknowledgments The authors are indebted to the many feed companies and individual retail grain dealers who so freely contributed the basic information on which this bulletin and Station Bulletin 426 are based. Acknowledgment is also due John Holmes and enneth Taylor for outstanding performance in carrying out a large share of the field work; and to E. T. Bardwell for his preparation of many of the illustrations. Distributing and Handling Grain-Feeds in New Hampshire II. Problems in Retail Distribution * by George B. Rogers, Research Economist and Harry C. Woodworth, Agricultural Economist* 1 . Introduction TH I S is the second in a series of bulletins dealing with the area of marketing and handling grain-feeds in New Hampshire. The first bulletin dealt with the characteristics of firms engaged in milling and/or distributing grain-feeds in the State. Field work on the project was com- pleted in early 1954. Hence, the data obtained on the bulk delivery method were largely confined to conventional auger-type bulk delivery equipment. Since that time, bulk trucks using pneumatic equipment have come into common usage in New Hampshire. In addition, some companies are now using an alternative method consisting of a hopper and elevating mechan- ism attached to a regular bagged delivery truck. H the study of bulk handling could be extended, it would now be possible to make more precise comparisons between regular bulk delivery equipment using either the auger or pneumatic mechanisms and the alternative method. Some of the principal problem areas confronting retail grain-feed units directly and/or their parent companies or supplying mills are the following: volume, fair pricing practices, retail unit and delivery route efficiency, and the choice between bulk and bagged feed. This bulletin dis- cusses such problems as the preceding and presents data, analysis, and methodology which can be used to arrive at solutions for them. Discussion will be phrased largely in terms of retail units, but the joint nature of most of these problems is recognized and specifically inferred. 2. Obtaining Volume T^ H E key to obtaining operating efficiencies and to lowering distribution -* costs (and, by inference, feed costs to producers) lies initially in choosing locations and practices which will promote volume operations. The trend in the retail grain feed business away from the country store, hardware store, or retail unit specializing in lines other than grain feeds has made possible certain operating economies. With the ex- pansion of the New Hampshire poultry i ndustry, many retail units have been able to thrive in their old locations even though at present such locations may be somewhat less than ideal (or central) in relation to the * Professor Woodworth initiated this study and started much of the field work prior to his death on September 18, 1953. trade area they now cover. New units have opened in many towns and cities; some older units have gone out of business due to company measures to consolidate territories, inopportune management decisions, unfavorable locations for securing, on an economical basis, a proportionate share of the expanding market, or proprietary inclinations or deaths. The point is rapidly being reached where the opportunities for opening additional re- tail feed units and obtaining volume without excessive resort to certain undesirable competitive practices may be more limited than in the past two decades. To achieve additional economies in the future, it will be necessary to place increased emphasis upon relocating existing units ac- cording to detailed and careful locational analyses. Location as Related to Railroads and Present Units Optimum locations for retail grain-feed units might be determined in part by reference to Figure 1. Utilization of railroad transportation to a point as close to the center of the trade area as possible is desirable. Long hauls by railroad being generally cheaper than by truck, and with the added advantage of equalization through the milling-in-transit privilege, it is eco- nomical to cover as much of the distance to the customer by rail as can be accomplished.* Figure 1 is useful to determine where other retail units have seen fit from experience to locate. It also shows the extent of com- petition likely in and around a given area in terms of numbers of retail units. However, the assumption of past experience as a locational criterion presupposes static conditions with respect to the availability of railroad service and to location of the quantitative centers of consuming areas (herein the number, type, and size of accounts serviced). For many com- modities, truck transportation is steadily displacing rail transportation to many points. At the time of writing one additional railroad route in the State (Plymouth to Woodsville) was under study for discontinuance. There are likely to be others in future years where overall revenue, use, or need is below the level required by the railroad to justify continued operation. In most instances, discontinuance of railroad service is likely to be to the disadvantage of retail feed units serving the area. Actually many pre- sent locations may be due to traditional or institutional factors, or to the immobility of invested capital. For example, a retail grain-feed unit may continue to operate at a given point in the short run if the net disadvantage in operating costs is not significantly more than the depreciated value of the cost of a unit at an optimum location less the salvage value on the present unit (or similar comparisons involving rent at one or both points). Eventually, however, present location may yield to other influences such as those discussed below, or to those related to overall business in the areas (such as the continuance or discontinuance of railroad services). Number, Size, and Type of Farm as Related to Location Some of the additional criteria which need to be considered from a locational standpoint are the number, type, and size of producing units; the relative concentration of grain-feed tonnage required; and the relative * Out of 178 grain-feed dealers spotted on Figure 1, only 15 were located in towns without rail facilities in 1954. More than half of this number had been served by rail until fairly recent years. 2 ■MB EXISTING RAILROAD LINES ■•• R.R. LINES DISCONTINUED IN RECENT YEARS ■• RETAIL GRAIN-FEED OUTLETS riEH tlftpipsniat AiHicoLTuBJL ElPERintMT St*1IOM. Durham, H.tt, Figure 1. Railroad lines serving New Hampshire and the location of 178 retail grain-feed outlets in 1954. CO '* CO o\ o\ C^ LO •* O t^ Irt I— I 1— I as OS r^ M 1-^ >-; CO lo lo r-^ CO lO 1— I 1— I 'O TO CO o o r— I CO !» LO ON LO :— I 1— I On O On r-; rH M CO CO C^ O On O lO o in Tj. o i-H >o i-H m t^ LO r— I i-H CO Csl I— t CO o \q i-H CNj CO CO o ^d e^j \o ■^' LO r-H l-H l-H 3 ■o o l-H c-1 CO CO o cy\ t^ -— 1 1— I o ON CO CnI l-H esi ON ON CO c^ VO LO e-s) LO c^ ON l-H vd o LO l-H l-H l-H 0) _3 o > t-- CVl CO t^ VO LO CO r^ csi CO CO •* CO CN) CN) LO lO l-H rH Tj; On On es r^ o o -a c o c 3 o o >- o. E o X 0) Z o B CO CM O ■* LO CO CO CO CM C^) t^ CO CO r-H l-H c^ l-H CO 0\ l-H l-H Tt 1— ; CO t--^ t--^ CO CM l-H CO CM CO CNj r- VO ON ■* CM 00 CM l-H CM >-H l-H ON 0 < o CO Ov O CO Lrt On O r^ CO ON CMCM C^l l-H CO CO t}< ^ VO LO On CM C^ Ov LO l-H l-H 1— r 0 c CO lrt Ov l-H CM CO CO l-H t-' C> lrt l-H l-H ■* O LO LOCM CO r^ CM CO •<* CO l-H s VO O rH CM CO On lrt CO ^ Lrt vd lrt CM E o Lrt O l-H Lrt Tj- l-H ■"^ On CO VO lrt l-H Lrt CO Ov VO 00 l-H VO o vd o •* r-^ VO l-H l-H 0) E 3 Z O CM O ■* LO t~- CM lrt l-H CO ■^vo 0N_O CO VO c-f I— Ti— Ti-H ON C0__ CO CM vq vq NO o CO On Tf t^ O Tji r-H I— ( l-H O 0\ On Ov Ov > ON Ov ON On o lrt '*,^^--j ^CNfirtoC jH ^ . . . cs ■" o o o o 0.0 o o o ►irvo LO o o IH V 0\ Ov Ov Ov > Ov Ov ON ON O LO -^ ON^ON^^ «^ cm" lrt c^ ^ ^^ C8 ■ 1 cd O o ' ' ' ™ ■" o o o o Q.OOO o ►JTvo lrt O O '-' *^ CM Vo' O travel distances, stops, and quantities likely to be involved on delivery routes. This section and those following will treat these points. Data to illustrate these criteria should be for small areas (towns and subdivisions and individual farms) but for the most part they are not available in this form. For detailed locational analyses, census data by towns, supplemented by information on individual units such as was ob- tained in the Gilmanton-Barnstead area*, would be desirable, and should form an important part of the background material. Deviations from the county patterns inherent in Tables 1-3 are likely to be widespread. How- ever, these data are useful to point up some of the characteristics to be analyzed in locational problems. Of the 13,391 farmsf in New Hampshire listed by the 1950 Census, about 60 percent were in four counties: Rockingham, Hillsboro, Merrimack, and Grafton. Over 80 percent of the farms in the State as a whole sold products valued at under $6,000 annually. In only three counties, Coos. Rockingham, and Hillsboro, did the proportion of farms with annual sales of $6,000 or over annually exceed 20 percent. Table 1 shows the numbers of farms and percentages of farms grouped by total value of pro- ducts sold. The preceding data once again point out the predominance of small units among the customers available to retail feed outlets. Moreover, there is not likely to be any sudden or extensive shift in this pattern. True, the average size of "commercial" farms may continue to increase, but New Hampshire will probably continue to have large numbers of "part-time" or "residential" farms. Hence many sales to small units will continue to be a characteristic of retail distribution of grain-feeds in the State, and one which will play a significant role in determining: (a) the extent to which bulk feed can be economically distributed; and (b) the practices and economies which may evolve in bagged feed distribution. Data on the numbers and proportions of farms under various 1950 census classifications are contained in Table 2. Less than half of the total number of farms in the State are classified as "commercial"; and in only three counties, Coos, Hillsboro, and Grafton do numbers of "commercial" farms exceed 50 percent of the county total. All counties were contained in the range of 13-24 percent "part-time" farms, and all counties, except Coos, fell in the range of 26-46 percent "residential" farms. The largest percentages of large "commercial" farms (value of products sold annually $10,000 or over) were found in Rockingham, Hillsboro, and Merrimack counties. In terms of appraising a county as a market for grain-feeds, numbers of farms are likely to be somewhat misleading unless tied to type of farm. Table 3 shows numbers of farms by type. From these data it can be ob- served that the largest numbers of poultry farms are in Hillsboro, Rock- ingham, and Merrimack counties; and the largest numbers of dairy farms in Grafton, Coos, Hillsboro, Rockingham, and Merrimack counties. It is apparent that the distribution of dairy farms over the State is somewhat more general than the distribution of poultry farms. Grain-feed needs of poultry and dairy cattle would generally outweigh grain-feed needs of other classes of livestock in locational analysis. * N. H. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 426, July, 1956, Tables 12 and 13. fThe 1950 census definition of a farm was: "places of 3 or more acres — if the value of agricultural products in 1949, inclusive of home gardens, amounted to $150 or more." 5 o u E o c o ■o c a c 3 O u E a E 3 z a O (Ml— t\Oi— iOCOtJilOlOOn ^ rH i-H Lrt i-H CO f-Hr— (t^vOi— 'OOVOLOCO'— t ■^ 1— I Irt 1— I ■* (N'O-^ocqoor— it-r-ON O (M!MCV|r-ll— lp-HfOr~- T}<o>-OlOLOtOl-Hl^qcOl-H il; LO o\i—(t^t— ovOfOcavoLO I I-H I-H CO I— I I— I T?>cOCOi>J\OOOi-HCOcO •TfTtLoooNOLOoeoi-H Tj< I-H I-H O I-H 'S' t^LO^-'^^oofOc^^c^co^o CO cOcO(MOcOvO"*Cn1 (M I-H CO I-H (M i-HT}OLO'^Loeo cO'*iOCO\0'^>OCOCOCT\i-H oscMOsioocot^ONr— coco COCOCN-^LOCOt-ONC^VO \D l-Hi—Ti— r VOcfTf I-H iH (M CO -^ L*^ O ta HH HH HH ►!: hi M o o CJ ^cOvOOvOi-Hi-HVOcOcOO fOi-Hvoi-HOON'Tj'vdvdo Tf I-H I-H lO I-H Tt t-.iovoi-Hf--c^\qcoot-^\o (M'i-Hr^t^i-Hod>ot--^'^'(N ^ I-H lO I-H tS" vqor-Hi-HO'*. 0'<#ocn;c-Hedovi-Hi-HcoLot^r-^ I— I CS I-H CO rH i-H LOl-Hl-Ht-;(NVOOqLOOLO esiT}'ir5a\a\o\'*t--^cdoN Tjl LO I-H CO I— J03i-Hcov00c00\v0c0 o> 'voLOTj'r-^ioocor-^ CO r-l VO CSl CO vqeqvqr!;vq(>jOTj T3 C •— ' ^ C — 2 3 ti S < u a. £ ^5 * ^ ci 3 s S M .2 < 4i >- a S ■a .5 o .5 a ■p u " r "3 ^ ^ o « " •5.2 «'" o S rt s-s " " a ^ I— I Ov - C 9} =a ti „, t: ja - u s _ o ^ .3:::- J 5 *> *' 1 O O oj I" ' 3^ §•«■ ji-s ; g. a I o ° « S •o o c ; cii " ° s 2 t~- i-H 1— 1 1 LO O lO OS lO o cvi 1 i-H i-H i-H to CM .—1 LO r~ a\ i-H 1— 1 1— 1 1— t^ 00 00 1—1 r-H 1— 1 i-H (N CM t^ 1 — r i-H lO On vo LO CO t^ CO CO -* t-^ CO LO I— I CM i-H OS CM CM r- r- On •* CO LO COCO O CM f— I CO I— I CSl CM O o O '^ -* CO OS ■* CO LO 0\ CO vo O OS i-H CM CM CO 1— I OS c o u >. o CM OS LO CO v£> -— 1 O CO lO '* •* 1— 1 CO CO f— 1 1— ( IC 1—1 OS a E o E lOi lO o LO LO so O 1— ( 0 u. ^ r— 1 CM CO 1— 1 rf Tj" CO « z E O 0) Q. o u -< *i tin « o .£; * 2 •■ > £ to .S ;;3 ij >,-0 >,'^J5 o O ^H ta CO jH c ^ 5 « o .S li -. „ t- >- ft aj Cf^U(X o-c ii b c -a = o c as T3 o>S — KEY — 1000 AND OVER ^ 500-999 m 300-499 ^ 100-299 □ UNDER 100 Hew tlAMPSniRt A&sicuLTunAi. ElPtRIMtHT StlllOM, PuRHAM , (I.M. Figure 2. Annual grain-feed requirements in tons for milk cows, by towns, 19S0. 8 — KEY — 2000 AND OVER 000-/999 500-999 100-499 I I UNDER 100 riEH tlAMPSniPt Agricuctubai. EsPERIrttMT STAXrOtl, Durham , tl.tt. Figure 3. Annual grain-feed requirements in tons for laying hens, by towns, 1950. Table 4. Towns Requiring Largest Amounts of Grain-Feed for Milk Cows and Laying Hens, by Areas, 1950 Annual Tonnage of Grain-Feed for: Milk Cows Laying Hens Area 1,000 and over 500-999 2,000 and over 1,000-1,999 Connecticut River Valley Colebrook Lancaster Haverhill Bath Lebanon Claremont Stewartstown Jefferson Columbia Pittsburg Piermont Monroe Lyme Lisbon Hanover Littleton Canaan Charlestown Plainfield Walpole Westmoreland Keene Walpole Lakes Region and Central New Hampshire Gilford Belmont Rumney Merrimack River Valley and South central New Hampshire Concord Loudon Hopkinton Henniker Epsom Concord Loudon Henniker Chichester Hollis Bedford Pelham Goffstown Hudson Milford Nashua Weare Goffstown Hudson Bedford Manchester Hollis Nashua New Ipswich New Boston Amherst Mont Vernon Peterborough Merrimack Pelham Jaffrey Southeastern New Hampshire Dover Rochester Derry Salem Brentwood Kingston Farmington Rochester Stratham Candia Raymond Auburn Chester Derry Danville Hampstead Salem 10 Grain-Feed Requirements by Towns as Related to Location As noted previously, county data are unfortunately somewhat too general for detailed locational analysis. Hence, for milk cows and laying hens, estimates of grain-feed requirements by towns have been derived, based on data from the State Tax Commission.* It would be possible to derive similar estimates for some other classes of livestock by the methods used for the preceding. f However, tax data do not include young chickens, commercial broilers, or turkeys, and town census data were not available, so one of the major grain-feed consuming classes of livestock (chickens raised for meat or replacements) could not be taken into account. This omission will certainly alter some of the conclusions which could be drawn about the grain-feed requirements of particular towns from the data shown in Figures 2 and 3. Table 4 lists the towns, by areas, requiring annually 500 tons or over of grain-feed for milk cows and 1,000 tons or over of grain-feed for lay- ing hens. The principal concentrations of these towns using large amounts of grain-feed for milk cows are in the Connecticut River Valley and the Mer- rimack River Valley and South central New Hampshire. For laying hens, the greatest concentrations of towns using large amounts of grain-feed are in the Merrimack River Valley, South central, and Southeastern New Hampshire. Delivery Routes as Related to Volume Inasmuch as more than four-fifths of the tonnage of grain-feeds sold by a typical retail outlet is likely to be delivered, the territory so served and the routes established are inherent in studying the question of volume. Data such as those presented in Table 5 illustrate some of the comparative expectations of density of stops, travel distances, and average purchases per unit in various areas of the State. Comparing two counties, Rocking- Table 5. Annual Tonnage Requirements of Grain-Feed, by Counties, Related to Area Characteristics Area Road Tons Required Annually per: 1,000 Road Farm Farm County (1,000 Acres) Milesi Acres Mile (all! 2 (Livestock)'' Belknap 256.0 782.44 38.1 12.7 11.5 38.9 Carroll 600.3 1,092.76 15.2 8.3 15.0 54.6 Cheshire 458.9 1,337.89 44.1 15.1 19.4 51.5 Coos 1,166.1 894.28 12.2 15.9 15.5 28.3 Grafton 1,098.2 1,943.57 24.9 14.1 15.7 35.2 Hillsboro 569.6 2.287.08 118.2 29.4 30.9 65.2 Merrimack 594.6 1,877.71 69.6 22.5 21.8 55.3 Rockingham 442.2 1,623.59 124.9 34.0 25.0 63.9 Strafford 241.3 809.73 102.4 30.5 25.4 74.2 Sullivan 343.7 1,007.91 36.3 12.4 12.8 32.4 1 As of March 1, 1953. Source: N. H. Higtiway Department. 2 Total number of farms reported in 1950 census. ''Total of dairy, poultry, livestock farms, general farms predominantly livestock, plus one-hall number of general farms, crop and livestock. * Fortieth Annual Report of the New Hampshire State Tax Commission, Tax Year of 1950. t Proration of the U.S.D.A. series among towns in proportion to numbers reported for tax purposes times assumed level of grain consumption. 11 ham and Coos, which lie close to the extremes of these data, it can be ob- served that for Rockingham County, the requirements per land area unit, per road mile, and per farm are high. For Coos County, the reverse is true. The conclusions which could be reached on the basis of Table 5 are some- what modified from those which could have been reached on the basis of Tables 1-3 alone, due to the introduction of the questions of dispersion of customers and quantitative grain-feed requirements. However, in order to explore these matters on a more specific basis, data are summarized in Tables 6 and 7 from 60 grain-feed delivery routes in the southeastern quarter of New Hampshire. Volume per route (meas- ured in terms of 100-lb. units) achieved in this area averaged relatively close to 5 tons for all routes. Bulk routes averaged close to 61/2 tons; bagged routes better than 4% tons. These figures represent a high percentage of the capacity of typical delivery equipment used. In terms of number of stops per route, the average of 7.2 appears relatively high despite the substantial number of routes with only 1 or 2 stops, there being only one observation at the 3-stop interval and none at the 4-stop interval. H, therefore, the 3-stop and over data is averaged, 11.2 stops per route is derived. This is further illustrative of the coexistence of routes involving one or two large customers and those involving large numbers of small-unit customers. The latter group is a clue to the efforts of retail grain-feed units to reach out considerable distances to achieve volume and/or meet "competition". All bulk routes show an average of 1.3 stops per route as compared to 8.1 stops per route for all bagged routes. Obviously, bulk feed routes concentrate exclusively on the larger accounts. Table 6. Analysis of Quantity, Stops, and Mileage on 60 Grain-Feed Delivery Routes in Southeastern New Hampshire Number of 100 lb. Number of St( aps Number of Mi les Bags Per Route Per Route Per Route Interval Frequency Interval Frequency Interval Free [uency 0- 19 3 1 18 0- 9 6 20- 39 5 2 6 10-19 8 40- 59 4 3- 5 8 20-29 7 60- 79 5 6- 8 8 30-39 12 80-109 15 9-11 4 40-49 6 110-139 17 12-14 6 50-59 9 140-159 6 15-17 3 60-69 1 160-179 3 18-20 4 70-79 7 180-199 2 21 up 3 80 up 2 98.21 602 7.21 602 38.81 582 93.33 524 8.13 524 36.63 9 524 130.05 86 1.35 86 58.35 10 66 10-1977 — 1-287 — 6-91.07 — 61-1748 — 1- 28 — 10-81.98 — ^ Average all routes. 2 Total all routes. ^ Bagged routes average. * Bagged routes total. ^ Bulk routes average. * Bulk routes total. '' Range, bagged routes. ^ Range, bulk routes. "Average miles per bagged route: 1 stop, 24.8; 2 stops, 30.5; 3 stops and over, 41.2. ^"Average miles per bulk route: 1 stop, 49.3; 2 stops, 76.1. 12 The marked difference between one- and two-stop routes and the three- stop-and-over routes is again noticeable in the data in Table 7 relative to the number of 100-lb. units delivered per stop. For the former group, the average observed was 93.0 units per stop; for the latter group only 7.6. Table 7. Analysis of Quantity per Mile and per Stop on 60 Grain-Feed Delivery Routes in Southeastern New Hampshire Number of 100-lb. Per Mile Units Number of Per 100-lb Stop Units 3 Stops and Over 1 and 2 Stops Per Route Per Route Frequency Frequency Interval Frequency Interval of Routes Interval 1 Stop 2 Stop 0.0- 0.9 6 0.0- 3.9 4 Under 12.0 1 1.0- 1.9 17 4.0- 5.9 13 12.0- 59.9 0 2.0- 2.9 14 6.0- 8.9 7 60.0- 79.9 2 6 3.0- 3.9 8 9.0-11.9 5 80.0- 99.9 3 4.0- 5.9 5 12.0-20.9 2 100.0-119.9 2 6.0- 9.9 2 21.0-29.9 3 120.0-139.9 3 10.0-14.9 2 30.0-38.9 1 140.0-159.9 5 15.0 up 4 39.0 up 1 160.0 up 2 2.5^ 582 7.61 362 93.01 182 62 2..53 !> 2. in 10 524 66 7.63 364 87.53 104.0-'^ 124 66 44 26 0.5-18.77 — 2.6-39.27 — 10-1507 — — 0.8-14.0S — — — 60-1748 — — ^ Average all routes. ~ Total all routes. ^ Bagged routes average. * Bagged routes total. ^ Bulk routes average. " Bulk routes total. ' Range, bagged routes. * Range, bulk routes. ^ Average number of 100-lb. units delivered per mile stops and over, 2.1. ^^ Average number of 100 lb. units delivered per mil on bagged routes: 1 stop, 4.2; 2 stops, 4.1; ! on bulk routes: 1 stop, 2.3; 2 stops, 1.1. Introduction of route mileage into the analysis yields some interesting results for these data. The average number of miles observed per route for all routes was 38.8; for all bagged routes, 36.6; for all bulk routes, 58.3. For the bulk routes included in the survey, this is indicative of only partial conversion of larger customers to bulk feed and/or the scattered location of these customers. Accordingly, mileage per route for 1- and 2-stop bulk routes is about double the corresponding mileage for 1- and 2-stop bagged routes, and for both 1- and 2-stop bulk routes in excess of average mileage on 3-stop-and-and-over bagged routes. The average number of 100-lb. units delivered per mile was 4.2 for 1-stop bagged routes. 4.1 for 2-stop bagged routes, and 2.1 for 3-stop-and-over bagged routes. In contrast, the average number of 100-lb. units delivered per mile on 1-stop bulk routes was 2.3, and on 2-stop bulk routes, 1.1. Thus, for the routes surveyed, there was evidence of excessive travel distance per 100-lb. unit delivered on bulk routes as well as on those bagged routes where there were large numbers of small-unit customers. Multiple-outlet firms (either company-owned units or agents) are characteristic of grain-feed distribution in New Hampshire, and are likely 13 to so remain because of economies of scale. Hence there will continue to be marked differences between units in different territories. Some territories will continue more economical than others, but within territories there is room for selection of better locations. It is within this concept that the matter of locational selection can be related to volume. The achievement of better locations within territories is more significant than attempting to minimize differences between outlets selling the same brand in different territories. The eventual minimization of distribution costs lies in the appli- cation of the principles suggested in this and in succeeding sections unit-by- unit. Assuming continuation of a substantial degree of delivery-route-cost equalization on a firm basis as now practiced, the problem becomes more one of maximizing efficiency in each territory serviced step-by-step in order to achieve a higher degree of efficiency for the combined territories. 3. Determining Fair and Equitable Pricing Practices HAVING established a retail grain-feed unit at a location within a particular territory which promises the opportunity for securing maxi- mum volume, a second problem for examination is that of determining fair and equitable pricing practices. This section concerns primarily those aspects of pricing other than the base price. Base price, as used herein, is the cost to or the transfer value of grain-feed arriving at the retail dis- tribution point plus all added charges for a non-delivered sale of a single 100-lb. unit with payment within 30 days. It is assumed already to include the cost of central office or local unit overhead and "service". It was not a purpose of this study to appraise base prices in terms of the relative nutritional values of different brands nor to judge the issue of "service". With respect to the latter, it can be pointed out that "service" actually is an overhead cost, but that it probably costs the individual producer who makes extensive use of it less than if he actually hired such work done. This is because the offering of extensive "service" is done on the basis that relatively small numbers of customers actually take full advantage of it, with the cost assigned over the entire number of customers, keeping the per unit addition minimized. Hence, "service" contributes toward good- will and may be a good investment for the company and the extensive user, so long as use is not universal, while costing the user, non-user or partial- user only a small amount per unit. Service, as used hereafter, will refer to those operations performed in the course of actual sale or delivery. Any distribution system results from the interaction of the demand for such services by the consumer (in this case the producer buying grain-feeds) and the willingness of one or more distributors (in this case the grain dealers) to provide such services at a minimum or no direct cost. In the distribution of grain-feeds, providing the maximum in sales and delivery service and in convenience to the pro- ducer is the rule rather than the exception. Furthermore, it can be asserted with justification that the sales and delivery services, and the convenience to the producer, are generally in disequilibrium with the costs actually paid for them. In general, some producers are subsidized and some are penalized. Inconvenience The common reason given for doing things like unloading at difficult spots, carrying bags to upper floors or over long distances, and dumping 14 bags was "competition would do these things if we didn't." Yet such things unquestionably add to the cost of distribution, though the cost is spread over all customers with the charge to the recipient small. It would be rather difficult to justify an "inconvenience" charge, particularly if auxiliary equip- ment could be had at a minimum cost which would alleviate the situation. Some further discussion of these problems is contained in a later section. Minimizing the cost effects of inconveniences to the delivery personnel and of excessive wear-and-tear on delivery equipment might most expeditiously come about through an informal "gentlemen's agreement" or a legally bind- ing fair trade practices agreement entered into by feed companies and/or dealers. True, progress has been made in working with producers to correct difficult situations, and some companies have been known to drop customers or to lose them over some of these points. In the final analysis, however, a few non-cooperative producers, or one company wishing to secure advantage in a given situation, could stand in the way of general improvement in the absence of an agreement among all companies and/or dealers operating in the State. Such an agreement might, or might not be broadened to include standard charges for delivery, credit, and quantity, and discounts for cash. These are more determinate areas, though there is considerable variability in values assigned to them by retail outlets. In a number of instances, values observed in the study were obsolete (low) when measured against the charges made by most companies, or without sufficient breakdowns (ex- ample: some quantitative discounts did not start until purchases reached 5 tons). It is extremely doubtful, however, if breakdowns could become very numerous without becoming a burden and a significant additional bookkeeping and billing cost. Credit vs. Cash Data were not collected in this study which would enable a precise appraisal of the costs of handling "credit" and "cash" accounts. Hence, no exact values, charges, or discounts are suggested. Data were obtained on collecting time on routes, but in order to make a numerical analysis, addi- tional data would be needed on office time and carrying charges. However, it is probably reasonable to assume that there should be little difference in time collecting the bill at the farm or at the office where both are done efficiently. Thus, the measurable difference is probably in carrying charges. It is suggested that three breakdowns would be equitable within the credit-cash area: (1) Payment in full within 7-10 days. (2) Payment in full between 7-10 days and 30 days. (3) Payment at some time after 30 days. The first alternative might carry a specific discount on either a dollars- and-cents or percentage basis; the third, interest at a specified rate per each additional 30 days or fraction thereof on the unpaid balances. The second, payment between 7-10 and 30 days, is assumed to be a character- istic of the base price, as discussed herein. Few transactions are made in distributive channels wherein "spot cash" is involved. A usual courtesy period of 5, 7, 10, or some other number of days is allowed between delivery or billing and payment. In the case of farm purchases of feed, payment for these is generally related to receipt of 15 a periodic check for eggs or milk. This interval in most instances would correspond to the 7-10 day period suggested as qualifying for a "cash" discount. Within the concepts outlined, it is suggested that an average charge be included in feed prices which would be sufficient to permit the carrying of a share of accounts up to 30 days without penalty in the form of "addi- tional charges'. However, in the interests of financial stability for both the producer and the feed dealer, long-term credit (over 30 days) should be carefully watched. For most producers, credit needs can be met more reason- ably by regular lending agencies than through customary store credit rates. In the long run, the feed dealer would be doing the producer a service by suggesting this approach, and would also cut down on one of the big headaches in the feed business today. The preceding observations relate particularly to enterprises producing eggs or milk, which yield regular re- turns. There is probably a place for some extension of credit on rearing laying flock replacements, particularly where the grower can finance to a point where credit needed to complete the growing period is equal to or less than the meat value. Feed credit is widely used in broiler financing, both in contract growing and by independent producers. Here, returns are obtained in total several times a year. Certainly, feed credit has been a necessary adjunct to the rapid expansion of broiler production, but just as certainly, such credit has not always been wisely extended. Quantity Discounts and Charges for Delivery on Bagged Feed These two areas may be somewhat related, i.e., charges for delivery sometimes vary with quantitative amounts. Generally, they are not well developed in terms of breakdowns, at least from posted or printed price sheets. It is known that in actual practice there are many separate and varying bases used for determining prices, even between producers of comparable size. The objective in these areas should be to standardize and break down discounts and charges in some detail and roughly in relation- ship to relative costs for handling various quantities. It was mentioned previously that some quantity discounts do not start until purchases reach 5 tons. Others apply to "1 ton and over". There appear to be a number of points at which quantity discounts could logical- ly be established to bear some relationship to relative costs. These are shown in Table 8. In the absence of comprehensive data, the "steps" in Figure 4 were interpolated at the points listed in Table 8 from the curve of calculated values using loading time (converted to time per ton) as the dependent Table 8. Points for Consideration in Establishing Quantity Discounts Quantity Discount Per Ton Reason Under 1 ton none Below minimum 1.0- 2.9 tons $1.00 Upper 15% of customers 3.0- 4.9 tons 2.00 Large customer 5.0- 9.9 tons 3.00 Truckload 10.0-14.9 tons 4.00 2 truckloads 15.0-19.9 tons 5.00 3 truckloads 20.0-24.9 tons 5.50 Minimum to average carload 25.0 tons and over 6.00 Full carload 16 variable and quantity as the independent variable. It was assumed that the rationale for quantity discounts lies in the progressive operating eco- nomies realized by handling larger and larger unit sales up to the full carload level, and that the economies bear a rough relationship to handling times (i.e., herein loading times as derived from data summarized else- where in the bulletin). The tentative amounts were interpolated from the values reported by a number of retail units. Some units also distinguish between mixed carloads and straight carloads of one feed in determining quantity discounts. There are undoubtedly economies on the latter vs. the former. It is not intended to suggest that the entire list of points in Table 8 be applied to all situations, but rather that quantity discounts be made pro- gressive by several stages, and alike for comparable unit purchases. There is admittedly a problem of variation (or adjustment) when purchases of a given producer vary seasonally, or for other reasons, and of specifying the time period involved. From data obtained in the study, the values in Figure 5 were inter- polated. It is apparent that there are progressive economies obtained as size of delivery increases. The rate of decrease after 2^/^ tons (50 bags), however, is probably slight. The suggestion of decreasing per unit delivery costs with increasing size of delivery points toward the equity of "actual delivery costs" or a graduated system of charges rather than a constant per unit charge. The idea of a minimum delivery charge is widely practiced in the distribution of other commodities. For the retail grain-feed unit. UJ Q. V) q: < -J -J o Q 3 O o \ 00 ?^ o Figure 4. Comparison of assumed quantity discounts with net decreases loading labor cost units. in 17 25 20 CO Q o CL 15 O o cc UJ CL (/) h- U o 10 FLAT CHARGE OF 25 'FOR lOR 2 BAGS ^ — KEY — LOAD/NG LABOR COST COLLECTING LABOR COST DEL/VERY LABOR COST TRUCK DEPRECIATION 8 OVERHEAD COSTS TRUCK OPERAT/NG COSTS TRAVEL LABOR COST CONSTANT CHARGE GRADUATED CHARGE W///////////./y.y/^y///^y.7^ 01 3 5 8 10 13 20 30 40 50 60 70 NUMBER Of \00 POUND UNITS 80 90 100 Figure 5. Conii)arison of constant and graduated delivery charges with per unit costs by size of order. il could justifiably be applied to very small purchases of grain-feed as well as to minimum deliveries of other lines where no grain-feed is de- livered at the same time. The graduated delivery charges indicated in Figure 5 are not neces- sarily those which best fit the data shown, or any individual situation, but are a composite of several sets observed. However, the graduated principle can be well supported by the results obtained in the study. Some graduated steps and charges per unit which might be interpolated from Figure 5 are shown in Table 9. Figure 5 also shows costs per 100-lb. units according to number of units, as calculated from data obtained in the study. Calculations are based on bagged feed, 70 miles daily travel, labor at $1.50 per hour, and the use of one man on delivery and two men in loading. Travel labor cost (driving time) and truck operating costs (gasoline, oil, repairs, tires, etc.) were treated as fixed costs; i.e., total value divided by total units (200). Truck depreciation and overhead costs were allocated in proportion to load- ing and travel time per unit. Labor cost of delivery, collecting time, and loading time were interpolated from per unit averages. The four top costs on the chart were variable. Greatest per unit variability occurs in collection costs and delivery costs, and only very slight variability in depreciation and overhead costs. Discounts for Bulk Feed The preceding discussions have been concerned primarily with bagged feed. Present experience is much less extensive with distributing and pric- ing bulk feed than with bagged feed. However, there are a number of points about pricing bulk feed which require mention. There is little reason to 18 Table 9. Points for Consideration in Establishing Delivery Charges Quantity (No. of 100-lb. units) Charge Per 100-Ib. Uniti Reason 1- 2 3- 9 10-19 20-49 50 and over $.25 flat charge .10 .09 .08 .07 Minimum delivery charge on small orders Above minimum; unit cost de- clines rapidly Half ton or over; unit cost still declining rapidly One ton or over, but under half truckload; unit cost savings decreasing Half truckload and over; sav- ings per unit small beyond 50 units 1 These unit charges might be smoothed to equate total charges at the quantitative breaking points. expect any difference in the two methods concerning the credit-vs.-cash area. With respect to the subject of inconvenience, there is the chance with bulk that arrangements and facilities, being new, can be initially worked out to be convenient to both dealer and producer. While the same would be true of new plants which would receive bagged feed, it is not generally as true of older plants. Relative to quantity discounts and charges for delivery, data collected in the study were not extensive enough to permit for bulk feed analyses parallel to those made for bagged feed. Somewhat indicative of the ideas of companies selling bulk feed regarding relative costs were the figures in use. These paralleled the discounts and charges in effect on bagged feed, except, of course, that the minimums were higher since bulk service wss not made available to smaller customers. From the cost projections subse- quently made, the potentional differences in per ton delivery costs are probably not sufficient to justify differential treatment on that item. In the absence of detailed information, the same quantity discounts could well be applied to bulk and bagged feed, within operational limits. At the time this study was made, two additional discounts were listed for bulk feed by companies offering this service, i.e., "bag savings" and "bulk discount". The former is not a net saving in the aggregate. Against the unit value of new bags there is a partial offset in the form of "bag re- turn credit". The extent to which the latter is offsetting depends upon the price allowed for No. 1 bags returned and upon the percentages of No. 1 and undergrade bags (these at a substantial discount per unit). "Bulk discount" represented a sharing with the producer of the aggre- gate potential savings to the company on bulk feed and/or an incentive to convert customers to bulk. Because of the difficulty of maintaining both efficient bulk and bagged routes in many territories preliminary cost appraisals indicate the likelihood of little or no potential average savings on delivery cost exclusive of loading. There may be some long-run savings at the mill and in loading. Hence, it is possible that real savings to feed companies on bulk feed are less than the discounts offered by feed com- panies when this study was made. 19 4. Achieving Delivery Route Efficiency OVER four-fifths of the grain-feed sold by the average retail unit is delivered on scheduled routes or to on-call customers. This pattern is typical of the majority of retail units, though not of carlot distributors or of units whose primary business is in lines other than grain-feed. Certain costs are common to both delivered and non-delivered sales; i.e., receiv- ing, warehousing (if any), collecting, and credit (if any). Credit was pre- viously discussed; receiving and warehousing, where they occur, probably involve identical cost factors whether the sale is delivered or non-delivered. Collecting, as previously noted, should be about equal for both delivered and non-delivered sales. However, in this study, as will be subsequently developed, observed route collecting time was generally excessive. There are a number of physical and institutional factors which bear upon the efficiency of delivery routes. Among these are those relating pri- marily to volume, i.e., location of the retail unit, number, size, and types of farms, and area and characteristics. Some additional factors are geo- graphical barriers, roads and driveways, company and/or retail unit char- acteristics and policies, and farm facilities. There is also the area of route rearrangement. Physical and institutional factors and route rearrangement are treated first, followed by discussions of loading and delivery efficiencies and costs. The area of route rearrangement was studied through a survey of dealers in Belknap County and those who were located outside, but sold within the county. In order to study the efficiency of route delivery of grain-feeds, data were collected on over 60 separate routes. Such data covered the loading, hauling, and delivery phases, and involved the number of men used, number of orders, quantity of grain-feed, route mileage in the aggregate and between stops, time required in loading, time required to place truck in position for unloading, unloading time, collecting time, delay time and causes, and the equipment used. These were recorded by field observers accompanying the delivery truck. In addition, certain basic cost data were obtained. Physical and Institutional Factors A study of any good relief map of New Hampshire will readily suggest areas and directions from distribution points wherein the delivery of grain- feeds would appear the easiest. Relief features now determine to a consider- able extent the locations of improved roads. However, in studying routes, there is usually little opportunity to record precise data except on loads, stops, and mileages. The ton-mile cost of delivery is undoubtedly modified by relief features and roads, though it is dificult to measure these effects statistically. In the Belknap County area and surrounding territory, it is apparent that Lake Winnipesaukee constitutes a geographical barrier between dealers on one shore and prospective customers on the other. To a lesser extent, hilly or mountainous country and difficult roads are a barrier to dealers in Laconia, for example, who might serve customers in Barnstead or Ashland. Distances from Laconia to these points, in terms of miles, are no greater than to points currently reached. While the association of moderate relief features with improved roads is generally positive, there are numerous exceptions to the positive asso- 20 elation of the better potential farms and improved roads. The location of better agricultural lands and/or farms has apparently been given only minor consideration in the building of improved roads. There has been little change in this respect since 1942, when it was concluded that: "Inadequate rural road services in New Hampshire have contributed to an uneconomic use of rural land and to an incomplete realization of agricultural and recreational opportunities. . . .a large majority of the so- called 'declining areas' are those districts most inaccessible in a town. . . . many of the declining areas are made unfit for agriculture by uncontrollable natural factors, . . . Nevertheless, too many areas in the state are declining because they are not readily accessible. . . . "* Hence, while some farm units may have gone out of production because of inaccessibility, many have continued to operate. These oftentimes present a problem to the feed dealer from the standpoint of added route mileage, the fact that roads may be impassable at certain seasons, or the load limits involved may require at times substitute delivery equipment. Although such units are in the minority, their importance is significant. Table 10 shows distributions of distances to farms over dirt or unim- proved roads and kinds of roads on which farms are located. Belknap, Carroll, Coos, and Grafton counties have a lower percentage of their farms located where travel distances over dirt or unimproved roads is less than a mile than the percentage for the state as a whole. On the other hand. Cheshire. Coos, Merrimack, Rockingham, and Strafford counties have lower percent- ages of farms actually located on dirt or unimproved roads than the per- centage for the state as a whole. The condition and location of roads is a paramount consideration in determining route efficiency. Road condition, as will be discussed later, is also a limiting factor to the extension of bulk feed delivery. The promotion Table 10. Distances to Farms Over Dirt or Unimproved Roads and Kinds of Roads on Which Farms are Located, New Hampshire and Counties Distances to Farms Over Kinds of Roads on Wliich Area Dirt or Unim [proved Roads Farms Are Located Gravel 5.0 mi. Hard Shell. Dirt or 0.0-0.2 0.3-0.9 1.0-4.9 and over Surface Shale Unimprov' J Percentage of A Tea Total The State 64.9 10.7 22.0 2.4 64.2 14.6 21.2 Belknap 53.6 17.0 27.2 2.2 48.2 19.2 32.6 Carroll 61.9 10.5 25.5 2.1 69.0 6.2 25.8 Cheshire 61.1 14.9 20.8 3.2 66.3 17.8 15.9 Coos 62.8 5.6 30.7 .9 66.3 20.1 13.6 Grafton 60.4 10.3 26.2 3.1 64.2 11.5 24.3 Hillsboro 67.6 9.4 20.7 2.3 62.4 13.3 24.3 Merrimack 65.9 10.1 22.5 1.5 66.0 17.3 16.7 Rockingham 77.0 7.3 13.6 2.1 76.5 9.1 14.4 Strafford 66.7 12.3 19.9 1.1 63.3 16.2 20.5 Sullivan 51.8 16.4 25.8 6.0 45.2 22.2 32.6 Source: 1950 Census of Agriculture. * Parks, W. R., and J. C. Holmes, New Hampshire Rural Town's Comparative Road Burdens and Road Services, N. H. Agr. Exp. Sta. and Bur. Agr. Econ. Cooper- ating. Bui. 339, June, 1942, p. 6. 21 of improved, all-weather rural roads is of importance to both feed dealers and producers; for the former such a program will make possible further efficiencies in delivery service, and for the latter enable adoption of tech- nological improvements in receiving and handling grain-feeds. Company and/or retail unit characteristics and policies directly affect route efficiency. These effects come about through the attitudes of manage- ment toward serving customers at scattered locations or under inconvenient circumstances on a regular basis, and through the pricing arrangements made. The decision on whether or not to go into bulk feed may also have a definite bearing on route efficiency, as will be subsequently shown. Farm facilities, i.e., farm roads and driveways, receiving platforms, location and number of grain storage points, as well as the attitudes of producers, affect route efficiency. Variation in these matters shows up in time required to set the truck in position and to unload. Most of the preceding factors are not likely to be solved in the short run, but rather form the framework within which short-run changes can be made. In effect the physical and institutional factors, plus a number of locational considerations are conditions of imperfect competition more or less fixed in short-run analysis. Route Rearrangements Recognizing the existence of certain conditions of imperfect competition fixed in the short run precludes from the study of short run route rear- rangements any assumptions relative to redistributing customers and estab- lishing an exclusive territory system.* The very nature of the present dis- tributive system for grain-feeds in New Hampshire makes such possibilities extremely unlikely in the absence of a national emergency requiring very strict rationing of gasoline, tires, etc., and like regulation of the use of manpower and equipment. Hence, in this study, route rearrangement is developed in terms of present units retaining the bulk of present customers. Obviously some turnover in customers occurs, but on the basis of con- siderations other than delivery route efficiency. The question herein is how to improve route efficiency; first from the standpoint of route rearrangement, and second, in terms of operating economies on the individual routes. Belknap County, New Hampshire, was selected as the focal area in the study of route rearrangement. Although the county ranks next to last in the State in terms of tons of grain-feed purchased, principles observed in a smaller area are equally applicable elsewhere, and the field work is less arduous. County boundaries obviously have little relationship to trade areas (Figure 6). Within Belknap County itself, dealers whose places of business were lo- cated within the county served areas composing portions of Gilford, Alton, Gilmanton, Belmont, Tilton, Sanbornton, Laconia, Meredith, and New Hampton without substantial competition from out-of-county dealers (Figure 7). Belknap County dealers had substantial competition from out-of-county dealers in much of the remainder of the county and in Sandwich, Moulton- boro, Tuftonboro, and Franklin. County dealers delivered as far away as * This type of aproach is well developed in the following bulletin: MacLeod, A., and C. J. Miller, Efficiency of Milk Marketing in Connecticut, 7. Milk Delivery in Rural Connecticut, Storrs Ag. Exp. Sta. Bui. 279, July, 1943. 22 Tamworth, Ossipee, Boscawen, and Epsom. In the southeastern and north- western portions of Belknap County, out-of-county dealers had about all of the business. ,' NORTHFIELO I Figure 6. Delivery routes of Belknap County grain dealers. 23 Two or more dealers (both in-county and out-of-county) were competing in all areas mapped within and without the trade area of Belknap County dealers. The areas of heaviest competition observed in terms of numbers of dealers — were in portions of Laconia, Meredith, Center Harbor, Alton, Belmont, Gilmanton, and Tihon where five or six dealers made deliveries (Figure 8). 7i - IN COUNTY 1- OUT OF COUNTY ^ - BOTH Figure 7. Areas served by Belknap County and out-of-county grain dealers. 24 The six dealers in Belknap County rather thoroughly covered the towns of Laconia, Gilford, Belmont, Gilmanton, Meredith, Center Harbor, Tilton, and Moultonboro. They also delivered in Holderness, Sandwich, Tamworth, Tuftonboro, Ossipee, Alton, Barnstead, Epsom, Northfield, Loudon, Canter- bury, Boscawen, Franklin, Sanbornton, New Hampton, and Ashland. The n-2 -4 -5 -6 ^ — / Figure 8. Numbers of grain dealers operating in Belknap County and adjacent areas. 25 areas of greatest route travel were between Laconia and Meredith, Laconia and Belmont, and Meredith and Moultonboro. The grain delivery routes diagrammed in Figure 6 represent an estimated weekly travel of 1,612 miles for the six dealers. By route rearrangements this weekly mileage could be reduced to 1,312, a saving in travel distance of 18.6 percent. With the same territories, customers, and quantities delivered being held constant for each dealer, percentage savings in travel distances ranged from virtually none for two carlot distributors whose route business was a minor factor to 37.1 percent for one dealer. Percentage savings in travel distances for the other three dealers were 8.7, 13.7, and 20.0 percent, respectively. The approach to savings in travel distance through route rearrangement necessarily must be made on an individual dealer basis. For example, one dealer with 21 delivery routes had 18 routes where the outgoing truckload was 5 tons or over; another dealer with 8 delivery routes had only 1 route where the outgoing truckload was 5 tons or over. Hence, in the latter in- stance, route rearrangement must also concern itself with maximum out- going truckloads. One dealer made local deliveries six days per week while other dealers performed these deliveries once or twice per week. Here, cutting down the number of routes became a primary concern. The requirements for studying route rearrangement are relatively few: 1. Large scale maps with roads and farm dwellings. The N. H. High- way Department can furnish county maps suitable for this purpose at a nominal cost. 2. Information on the location of each customer obtaining delivery service and the average quantity purchased by each customer. Cus- tomers can be located on the map by numbered pins or by pencil coding. 3. The precise directions taken on each delivery route. Each route can be plotted on the map. 4. A map measure or a piece of string for measuring revised route mileage (and present route mileage in the absence of accurate speedometer readings) . For dealers where present outgoing truckloads are relatively near truck capacity, the problem is essentially one of shifting customers from one route to another to find the combination which will minimize travel distances. For dealers where present outgoing truckloads are less than truck capacity, minimization of travel distances and maximization of truckloads should both be achieved. This can be done through shifting customers, combining two or more present routes, and/or instituting less frequent delivery. Following are three examples of route rearrangements which could be made. The original data were taken from records of actual routes operated by retail grain-feed dealers. Example A Route 1 serves 9 customers purchasing an average of 42 bags of grain weekly. The round trip covers 53 miles. Roughly 80 pounds are delivered per mile of travel. By initiating delivery every other week, the load can be increased to 84 bags per trip, or 160 pounds per mile of travel. One trip of 53 miles is eliminated — saving 26.5 miles per week. 26 Example B Routes 2 and 3 serve two adjacent towns. The former involves 5 stops and 20 bags with 34 miles of travel. The latter involves 9 stops, 29 bags, and 36 miles of travel. By combining Routes 2 and 3, 13 customers could receive 49 bags of grain, with travel distance totalling 42 miles. This would represent a savings of 28 miles per week. If every other week delivery was initiated, 13 customers could receive 98 bags. The aggregate saving in travel would then equal 49 miles per week: 2 (34 + 36) = 140 1 (42) = 42 98 -^ 2 = 49 As the routes are now, 59 and 81 pounds are delivered weekly per mile of travel on Routes 2 and 3, respectively. Combined into one weekly route, 117 pounds would be delivered per mile of travel. With every other week delivery, 233 pounds would be delivered per mile of travel. Example C Routes 4-9 inclusive involve local deliveries with the smaller of two trucks owned by the store. There is one local route daily. The aggregate mileage is 31.0, and the respective quantities 12, 12, 20, 20, 25, and 20 bags. By combining these local deliveries into two routes, one Monday and one Thursday, the loads could equal 57 and 52 bags, respectively. A saving of 10 miles travel per week could be realized. The preceding examples are concerned with reducing route mileages and increasing pay loads. By route rearrangement, there are also likely to be significant savings in time, thus reducing the labor cost of delivering grain- feed. Subsequent sections will explore this matter more fully. Less frequent delivery has been mentioned as a technique which can be employed to aid in rearranging routes and delivery schedules to minimize travel distance and time. But the question of defining the limits of less frequent delivery cannot be answered herein on the basis of present evidence. Aside from the wishes of producers, who may well demand and get weekly or semi-weekly deliveries of grain-feeds because of inclination and/or man- agement decisions, the issue is essentially one of the keeping characteristics of grain-feeds. How long can grain-feeds be kept safely under various storage conditions and in different seasons without undue loss of palatability and/or nutritional value? Answers to this question were sought by questionnaire from nutritional specialists at the six New England colleges and a number of feed companies. The replies indicate substantial differences of opinion and a lack of experi- mental data applicable to the specific formulas and the range in farm storage conditions on New Hampshire farms. The matter calls for controlled experi- mentation before a precise answer can be formulated, or these answers translated into recommended practices. From a number of replies to the questionnaire, it would appear that there is little danger of adverse effects from bi-weekly deliveries of grain- feeds, but whether less frequent periods can or should be used is a matter of considerable difference of opinion. 27 Efficiency of Truck Loading Most stores and warehouses visited did not experience excessive delays in loading from unsystematic piling of the various kinds of grain-feed handled. Admittedly, the loading of a truck with a number of different items is somewhat less efficient than where one or two items are involved, but this is a problem common to all retail units and, hence, one which is difficult of microscopic study for purposes of observing differences in per- formance. It was possible to secure sufficient observations to compare roughly the efficiency of loading bagged feed with different numbers of men. In general (Table 11) retail units do not utilize additional men efficiently in loading. While the elapsed time in loading a truck may be reduced, there is a general tendency for the man minutes per 100 pounds to increase as additional men are added. There are some variations from this pattern, as can be observed in Table 12. Here, an attempt was made to compile the data for "loading mostly by carrying bags" to measure the effect of not only number of men, but also number of bags and number of orders. These data suggested the following: (1) For a relatively small number of bags and few orders, one man was most efficient in loading. (2) As the number of bags loaded increased, one man became less efficient, and on larger orders two men were most efficient. (3) In all unit intervals related to number of bags, two men were more efficient than three; three than four. (4) As the complexity of loading increased (as measured by number of orders) efficiency steadily fell where one, two, or three men were used. Four men appeared most inefficient where there were very few or very many orders in the load. Table 11. Comparative Efficiency in Loading Grain Delivery Trucks by Various Methods No. of Men No. of Loads Avorag'^ Averaae A%erac:e No. of Average No. of Bass Weight Orders Weight Per Load Per Load Per Load Per Order (lbs.) (lbs.) Man Minutes Required Per Load Man Minutes Per 100 Lbs. 100 lb. Units Loaded Per Man Minutes Loading Mostly by Carrying Bags 1.3 2.1 3.0 4.0 4 19 6 7 85.75 8.575 8.8 980 94.74 9,474 6.8 1,395 119.66 11,966 11.3 1,056 91.86 9,186 10.0 933 Loading Mostly by Hand Truck and Ch .55.1 62.1 104.7 134.6 ute .64 .66 .88 1.44 1.56 1..53 1.14 .69 3.2 2 134.00 13.400 1.0 13,400 Loading Bulk Trucks from 100 lb. Bag 55.0 si .41 2.44 2.1 2 98.00 9,800 1.0 9,800 112.5 1.15 .87 Loading Bulk Truck from Overhead Bins Poultry Feeds: 1.0 3 lOftlfi !■? R1T> 12.7 .12 8.52 Dairy Feed: 2.0 1 6 100 10 6 inn 50.0 .82 1 22 1 Bags hand trucked, opened, dumped into overhead bulk bin; spouted into bulk truck bin; or bags hand trucked, opened, dumped into bulk truck bin. 28 Examing the data in Tables 11 and 12 from another angle, it appeared possible to increase efficiency by using a hand truck and other devices to minimize carrying. In terms of man minutes per unit in loading, the filling of bulk trucks from overhead bins, where one man handles the operation and feed flows freely, appeared to be the most efficient method. However, where bulk feed bridged rather badly (as dairy feeds may do), where it was necessary to use more than one man, and particularly where bulk trucks were loaded from bags, loading efficiency was very low. Those types of situations represent some of the problems with bulk feed handling. In seeking a more controlled answer to time savings from use of a hand truck, the data from Table 11 "loading mostly by hand truck and chute", could more properly be weighed against the two men data in Table 12. The combination of one stop and over 130 bags with two men hand loading should yield a figure somewhere between .44 and .67 man minutes per bag as compared to the .41 man minutes from Table 12 for loading by hand truck and chute. Another indication of this general trend can be observed from Table 13. Here, it took one man .20 man minutes per bag to load a truck from a railroad car using a hand truck. Two men load- ing by hand took .33 man minutes per bag. Both were loading for one destination, but the different number of bags per load probably accounted for some of the previous difference. Table 12. Effect of Number of Men, Number of Bags, and Number of Orders on Man Minutes per Bag in Loading Grain Unit Average Man Unit Average Man Intervals Number Minutes Intervals Number Minutes (No. of Bags) of Bags per Bag (No. of Orders) Orders per Bag 1 man 1 man Under .50 10.0 .33 1- 2 1.0 .33 50- 90 — — 3- 6 5.0 .61 90-130 111.0 .65 7-12 — — Over 130 — — Over 12 14.5 .68 2 men 2 men Under 50 35.5 .88 1- 2 1.4 .44 50- 90 72.4 .78 3- 6 5.0 .64 90-130 112.6 .67 7-12 8.4 .75 Over 130 159.0 .39 ' Over 12 19.0 1.08 3 men 3 men Under 50 20.0 1.28 1- 2 — 50- 90 88.0 1.36 3- 6 5.5 .81 90-130 108.5 .84 7-12 11.0 .84 Over 130 146.5 .76 Over 12 17.5 .98 4 men 4 men Under 50 1- 2 1.0 1.80 50- 90 75.3 1.76 3- 6 4.5 1.14 90-130 97.0 1.39 7-12 11.0 1.06 Over 130 136.0 1.03 Over 12 16.3 1.76 Table 13 is interesting in another respect. Comparing the man minutes required per bag with data from Tables 11 and 12 leads to the conclusion that there are decided economies in operating routes from railroad cars as against delivery from retail units. These are in addition to the elimination 29 of the extra handling, i.e., railroad car — > truck — > farm storage vs. railroad car — > warehouse — > truck — > farm storage. (See also Figure 11 for diagramatic presentation of alternative methods of distribution ob- served in the study.) Obviously, the method of operating from railroad cars cannot be universally used since it requires more advanced ordering and planning than could be obtained from most farm customers. Where it can, however, it is certainly productive of economies in distribution in terms of more efficient truck loading, elimination of one handling, and elimination of retail unit warehousing space. One of the problems common to truck route operations is that of making the fullest use of the truck (or trucks). In the loading phase, this is concerned with minimizing the delay time during loading and between completion of loading and departure. Total loading time in man minutes for 36 observations was 2,971. Predeparture delays totalled 535 man minutes additional, or an amount 18 percent as large as total loading time. On the 19 observations where predeparture delays occurred, loading time totalled 1,836 man minutes; delay time was almost 30 percent as large as actual loading time. The most common causes of predeparture delays were servicing the truck (gas, oil, water), getting bills and change at the office, sweeping, waiting on customers, and side trips to get additional supplies. These are not functions which can be eliminated entirely, but it should be possible by better scheduling and division of work (particularly in multiple-employee retail units) to prevent these delays from tying up the loaded truck. Table 13. Comparative Efficiency in Unloading from Railroad Cars onto Trucks Average Average Elapsed Total Man Man Minutes in Unloading No. No. No. Bags Time Man Minutes in — — Observations Men Per Load (Minutes) Minutes Preparation Total Per 100 lbs. By Using Hand Truck 1 154 31.25 31.25 By Carrying Bags 2 100 20.75 41.50 2.25 29.00 .20 8.60 32.90 .33 Efficiency of Delivering and Unloading at the Farm The various observed methods of delivering and unloading grain-feeds at the farm are summarized in Table 14. The data were collected in such a manner as to separate the various operations involved, i.e., setting truck in position for unloading and preparing to unload where auxiliary equip- ment was involved, unloading, collecting and obtaining orders, plus time lost through various circumstances and time used in bag returns. With respect to unloading time only. Table 14 indicates the possibility of effectuating time savings through use of bulk unloading equipment, port- able conveyors, and body jack arrangements for use on second floor de- liveries. However, when portable conveyors were used, it took two men on the truck and a considerable amount of extra time to put the conveyor on the load, place it in position, shift it as the load was reduced, and retie on the load. This extra time more than cancelled the time saved in unloading. In the instance where the body jack arrangement was used, two men were 30 -o o :S 3 _o o > XI _c '5 O «^ o in V ID ^> "aj D D> c 12 D c .2 'G 0) > o Q. E o u C ■S .-a o c = H 3 S c^ ■" "■" u n rC Ztn •S «; 2 c 2 S-He ZS' C3 > 1'^ ^ < o ro cq r- 00 lO T}> OO CO VO LO ■^ lO VO CO CO CNl 0> T? O CO CO to LO o LO LO Tf p p \o LO c (U E o ■* r-^ vo i^ -o CO >. o t^ CO t^ Tf 1 — I 0) . CO ,-; CSJ o o o ^ CO ^ O r-I o' CM _i '^ 3 lO CM CM 0) LO CO (— ( D> _c J3 c C ^ 3 0 a 0 D O '-a a jO c _c _o c 3 CM lO LO z> p i p c Z3 LO CM (— H >C 1— < 1 — 1 t— 1 1 — 1 o >. 0) > c o u '-a o _o c 1—5 p P P 00 3 o CO o o t-^ ■>*■ vd CO oo -^ \o o jO u_ ■D c 1— 1 lO CO CO p o cs o vq CO cm' LO Tf! 1:2 i-H CO Cs CM CM -* r— 1 CM CO CM o o o o o IC CM T— 1 O o o OS r- CO o T}- o ON vO ' — ^ I — > O CM CM CM CM OS CM CM CO 31 on the truck. This unit had two practical limitations, i.e., the maximum elevation of 5 feet above normal truck platform level, and the maximum lift of 90 bags (60 was preferable). Time consumed in preparing to unload bulk feed was not excessive, and unloading was. on the average, fast and done by one man. Just as the use of a hand truck offered certain economies in loading bagged feed on delivery trucks, so it could offer economies in unloading. The principal drawback to wider usage of hand trucks in unloading is the variable and improper height of unloading platforms at the farm. For best results such platforms should be close to truck platform level. There would appear to be a definite place in the delivering and un- loading of grain-feed on many routes for a system intermediate between a complete bulk setup and the traditional method of handling bagged grain by hand. Admittedly, there are many technical and cost problems involved in developing a system which will permit the maximum flexibility with economical operation. Two alternatives appear worthy of investigation: (1) A conventional bag conveyor modified in such a way that it could be attached to a base on the truck. This would eliminate tying, un- tying, lifting, shifting, etc., as is now necessary with portable conveyors used on some loads. It could be placed in position by power rather than by hand. Two men would still be needed, one at each end of the conveyor. Feed could be stored in bags or the bags dumped into bulk bins. (2) A hopper and elevating mechanism attached to a base on the truck, to be placed in position by power rather than by hand. Feed would be hauled in bags and the bags clumped into the hopper, the feed then being deposited in bulk in the farm bins. This system should be worked out so it could be handled by one man and used only on orders where quantities justified. One problem would be to assure the clearance of one type of feed from the system before another was introduced. The cost limitations of alternatives such as the two mentioned above can be roughly defined. First, depreciation and maintenance charges should be less than those experienced on the conventional bulk delivery equipment. Secondly, total route operating costs should not exceed those experienced on the most efficient bagged feed routes. Data on making deliveries of grain in bulk, shown in Table 14, were recorded on the auger-type body. Recently the pneumatic-type of body has been introduced into the state. The pneumatic system makes it possible to reach points more distant from the truck-setting position than is possible with the auger system. This is accomplished by means of pipes (probably stove-pipe) sealed at the joints and running from the outside of the house to the storage bins. It may prove somewhat easier in operation to hook on a short length of outlet pipe. Even where bagged feed was unloaded by hand, the location of many farm grain storage points required a considerable amount of time to ma- neuver the truck into position for unloading. Extra men were largely "dead weight" in this instance, as on collecting, travel, etc. In general the additional men did not reduce the man minutes per 100 pounds in unloading. Hence, as with loading, it must be concluded that additional men are, on the average, not utilized efficiently. The preceding conclusion is further substantiated by Table 15. Here the primary purpose was to analyze the effect of size of delivery on time 32 requirements, but while the results show a steady decline in time per 100 pound bag as the size of the individual delivery increases, at no point is it conclusive that additional men are utilized efficiently. There is little reason to expect that the average time required to place the truck in position for unloading, or to collect and obtain orders, would be substantially different on larger orders than on smaller orders. Thus, these items are relatively fixed in total irrespective of size of delivery, but decline somewhat in relation to additional units unloaded at the stop. Time needed to set the truck in position for unloading is more properly a function of the number of separate settings of the truck, whether one or more per farm, whereas collecting and reordering time is more properly a function of the number of farms (or orders). Just as the "position" time requirements appear excessive, so do the time requirements for collecting and reordering. Both are a result of atti- tudes and policies and can only be reduced by cooperation between the feed dealer and the farmer. "Position" time is a direct result of the location of farm grain storage points and the extra carrying the farmer expects or the feed dealer is forced to do by competition. Collecting and reordering time is affected by the regularity of delivery time, credit considerations, and the Table 15. Effect of Number of Men and Size of Delivery on Man Minutes per Bag Required in Making Deliveries of Grain Man minutes per bag spent on: Size of Delivery (No. of Bags) No. of Men No. of Del. No. of Bags No. Bags per Del. Setting Truck in Position Unloading Collecting and Reorders Total of 3 Items 1- 3 1 2 141 50 246 87 1.74 1.74 1.74 .30 .31 .96 1.64 1.14 2.13 3.05 2.34 3.39 5.00 Av. 1.26 191 333 .31 3.79 4- 9 1 2 72 28 454 167 621 6.31 5.96 6.21 .15 .33 .58 .87 .62 .83 .68 1.35 2.03 Av. 1.28 100 .20 .66 1.54 10-19 1 2 38 25 502 319 821 13.21 12.76 .09 .22 .14 .47 .69 .35 .52 .42 .91 1.43 Av. 1.40 63 13.03 .55 1.11 20-39 1 2 11 14 25 268 360 24.36 25.71 .09 .25 .44 .70 .59 .22 .20 .75 1.15 Av. 1.56 628 25.12 .18 .21 .98 40-79 1 2 2 15 81 826 40.50 55.07 53.35 .05 .12 .38 .58 .03 .06 .06 .46 .76 Av. 1.88 17 907 .12 .56 .74 80 and over 1 2 3 4 1 7 3 1 123 804 310 100 1337 123.00 114.86 103.33 100.00 .05 .06 .15 .08 .43 .53 .98 .24 .02 .08 .17 .05 .50 .67 1.30 Av. 2.33 12 111.42 .08 .60 .73 33 amount of time the feed dealer is willing to have his driver spend in "good will" and "service work". These two operations can contain decided in- efficiencies; solving them can only come about through cooperation and mutual savings. While on the average, delay time on the route amounted to only 2.5 percent of other route time, there was wide variation due to circumstances. Some factors, which were actually delaying, were measured in some instances as part of other operations. Some examples of these were: (1) Included under "position": "car stuck in drive"; "locked door"; "very poor and crooked drive"; "inquire where to unload". (2) Included under "unloading": "empty the bags"; "long carry"; "difficult locations"; throwing or carrying to upper floors; "had to carry around tools in barn floor"; "stop on main road, carry in on back"; "carry 75 feet to dairy". (3) Included under "collect and reorder": "lonesome old man, wanted to visit"; "new calf born while at this farm"; "leave advertising material"; "bags for return". Some of the situations actually recorded as "delays", and for which time was segregated were as follows: "get Town Report"; "stuck in soft ditch"; "find party"; "inquire where to unload"; "place for sale — customer moved away"; "call on old customers"; "stop at bank"; "talk with Field Representative"; "bags returned"; "assist the farmer in the field"; "wait for truck to unload and clear driveway"; "shut doors on inside and wait for man"; "in Post Office"; "inquire location of new customers". Most of the factors causing delays or slower rates of accomplishment cannot be measured in averages because of their very nature. However some of the unloading problems are compared in Table 16. These data, while based on only a few parallel observations, are indicative of the ex- cessive time required under difficult unloading conditions. Table 16. Relative Unloading Times Under Specified Circumstances, Selected Data Index Number of Unloading Time Circumstances per 100 lbs. 1st floor unloading, average condition 100 Carrying to 2nd floor 125 Carrying to 3rd floor 300 1st floor unloading, emptying bags 250 Long carrying distance from truck to grain room 400 The procedures for returning used grain bags differed between com- panies. Some gave the producer the alternative of shipping to a bag company or returning bags via the grain truck; other companies left the matter en- tirely up to a bag plant. In some instances the initiative for counting, bundling, and tagging bundles of bags rested with the producer; in others the grain dealer performed this service. In the latter situation, route time was increased once again by the willingness of the grain dealer to perform additional services without charge to keep accounts. 34 The most efficient way of handling the return of used grain bags would generally be one under which the producer counted, bundled, and tagged bundles of bags, and the grain truck picked them up for assembly at a central point or delivery to the bag plant. Such a procedure, provided pro- ducers did not cause extra work by incomplete identification of bundles, as was reported in some cases, would minimize route time involved. It would also utilize the return trip of the truck in a productive way. It would fur- ther eliminate many route miles over which the grain truck and the bag plant truck would otherwise both travel. However, under such a system it would be necessary that both the producer and the grain dealer receive equitable compensation for their services. One possible exception to the preceding arrangement might occur where the grain dealer, for other rea- sons, finds it feasible to dump bags for the producer. Here it would be just as economical for the grain dealer to handle the counting, bundling, tagging, and accounting. Considerations relative to the dumping of bags by the grain dealer were discussed previously. One other type of situation which causes inefficiency in delivery route operation is catering to small orders. The time attendant to travel, position, unloading, and collecting are oftentimes incurred on a sale of less dollar value than a bag of grain. Some examples of small orders observed were as follows: 12 lbs. oyster shells; 25 lbs. chick feed; towels, cleaner, filter disks; one package of vegetable seeds; 5 lbs. dog food; 3 cans of dog food — 47c. Many of the people making such purchases are old customers; some may seasonally or in the future buy larger quantities. In any event, cater- ing to small orders is costly and more sizeable orders must bear a share of this cost. Such small orders could best be bought at the store. Formulating Route Time The man minutes per route, necessary to calculate the labor cost of delivery, can be expressed by the following equation: Rt = N [(M.m) + (P.p) + (S.c) + (Q-u)] + N[|Bi.d(T)] In the preceding equation, the symbols are indicative of the following: Rt — route time in aggregate man minutes N — number of men on truck M — route miles round trip m ■ — average miles per hour expressed as 60 m P — number of separate settings of truck p — average time per setting in minutes S — number of stops on route c — average collection time per stop in minutes Q — number of 100 pound units u — - average unloading time in minutes per 100 pound unit T — total man minutes in preceding bracket d — average percentage of route delay time There are presented in Table 17 a series of factors for use in the examples which follow the table and Figure 9. Data in Table 17 were de- rived from Tables 14 and 15 and from examination of the individual ob- servations upon which those tables were based. 35 Table 17. Comparison of Average and "Most Efficient" Performances of Certain Delivery Operations^ c (collecting No. of P 'f losition) and recording) u (un loading) Method of Data "Most Data "Most Data "Most Unloading Men Average Efficient" Average Efficient" Average Efficient" Mins. per Setting Mins. per Stop Mins. per 100 Pounds Hand 1 0.8 0.5 3.0 1.0 0.56 0.39 2 1.4 0.5 2.1 1.0 0.33 0.182 Conveyor 2 3.3 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.24 0.203 Bulk 1 5.1 2.0 4.6 1.0 0.29 0.19 (auger- type) ^ Times can be converted to aggregate man minutes by multiplying by number of men. - Carrying to upper floors almost eliminated. ^ Includes partial unloading to upper floors. Figure 9 was designed for use with the preceding formula. In effect it is the (M.m) position; route mileage can be read vertically to the curve and the product (M.m) in minutes horizontally from that point. The curve was interpolated from plottings of interval averages from actual bagged and bulk routes. The interpolated curve exhibits the logical behavior of increasing average miles per hour with greater route length. It can logically pass through the origin since it covers only truck travel time and no other time factors. Following are some examples of the use of the route time formula, utilizing data from Table 17 and the interpolated curve in Figure 9. Examples Assume the following: (1) Route 40 miles round trip (2) 6 stops on route, 9 settings (3) 100 bags on load (4) Average amount of delay for data average route; none for most efficient (A) With one man on truck Data Average: Rt = 1[95 + 9(0.8) +6(3.0) + 100 (0.56)] + 1[.025 (176.2)] Rt = 180.6 minutes "Most Efficient": Rt = 1[95 + 9(0.5) + 6(1.0) + 100(0.39)] + 1 [.025(0)] Rt = 144.5 minutes (B) With two men on truck Data Average: Rt rr 2[95 + 9(1.4) + 6(2.1) + 100 (0.33)] + 2 [.025 (1532)] Rt = 2 (157.0) =r 314.0 "Most Efficient": Rt =r 2[95 + 9(0.5) + 6(1.0) + 100 (0.18)] + 2 [.025 (0)] Rt = 2(123.5) = 247.0 36 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 ROUTE MILEAGE Figure 9. Relationship between route mileage and truck travel time. From the foregoing it is evident that the effects of doubling man minutes in travel, position, and collection are hardly likely to be offset by increases in loading efficiency eventually realized by using two men instead of one man on delivery trucks. The "most efficient" factors when used in the formula with actual route specifications should provide a basis for comparison with actual route times being experienced. Such a comparison, of present results against efficiency standards constructed from actual observations, is a fair test of current performance against a goal of more-or-less ideal conditions. Under certain circumstances, a savings in elapsed time would be more important than savings in man minutes per unit. If the savings in route time by using additional men were sufficient to permit the utilization of less equipment to cover a given territory, and the amount saved on equipment and operating costs were greater than the savings in labor cost (man minutes), additional men would be profitable. In terms of the results of this study such does not appear to be the case when comparing one and two man routes. 37 In the preceding examples the elapsed thnes on the "average" routes for one and two men, respectively, were 180.6 and 157.0 minutes, or an elapsed time saving with two men of 23.6 minutes. The additional cost in man minutes, however, was 133.4 minutes. For the "most efficient" routes, the elapsed times for one and two men, respectively, were 144.5 and 123.5 minutes, or an elapsed time saving with two men of 21.0 minutes. The additional cost in man minutes with two men was 102.5. Comparative Delivery Route Costs The minimization of delivery route costs is the summation of the efficiencies realized from maximizing volume, rearranging routes to mini- mize travel distance and time, minimizing loading time, and minimizing de- livering and unloading time. The most significant indicators of delivery route efficiency are the following: number of 100-lb units, number of miles on route, number of stops, number of 100-lb units delivered per mile and per stop, man minutes spent per 100-lb unit, and cost of delivery per 100- lb unit. Costs per mile or per ton-mile are likely to be misleading, in that they yield unfavorable comparisons on shorter routes, somewhat irrespective of what other measures show, and even though shorter routes are generally desirable. In Table 18, 3 routes were selected which approximate the extremes and the modal area for the 60 routes on which comprehensive data were obtained. Cost projections were made on the basis of preceding and succeed- ing information. In terms of the data in the study the routes can be de- scribed as follows: Item Route A Low Route B Medium Route C Quantity (units) High Miles (No.) High Medium Low Stops (No.) High Medium to High Low Units/stop Low Medium High Units/mile Low Medium to Low High Time/unit High Medium Low Cost/unit High Medium Low This type of comparison has the obvious limitation of a number of variables, the effect of each of which upon the final result (cost per unit) is difficult to appraise. There are other variables such as truck size which are frequently hidden in many sets of data based upon observed route costs. Fortunately, this factor is not a variable in the three examples presented. For analyzing many cost problems, and for that of grain-feed delivery route costs in particular, more significant appraisals can be made through a budgetary approach, wherein as many as possible of the variables can be held constant, and varied one at a time. Hence, with respect to the problem of analyzing relative costs of bagged and bulk delivery routes, "average cost" comparisons for a number of combined routes or direct comparisons of individual routes, similar in some respects but different in others, have been avoided. In attempting to analyze the relative efficiencies of the two methods the budgetary approach has been followed, holding most factors constant. The two questions which Hypothesis 1 and Hypothesis 2, respectively, arc designed to analyze are the following: (1) Given a constant load, routes of equal distance, like numbers of stops and settings, and relatively high efficiency, which is cheaper — distribution of bagged feed or bulk feed? 38 21.0 81.0 150.0 45.0 37.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 1.0 146.5 201.0 124.0 2.63 11.57 150.0 .47 2.19 18.75 6.98 2.48 .83 1.49 2.04 1.26 3.66 5.02 3.09 3.15 2.59 .56 8.30 9.65 4.91 .395 .119 .033 .184 .261 .614 .174 .065 .082 7.90 2.38 .66 (2) If each type of equipment is fully used under similar conditions, which is cheaper — distribution of bagged feed or bulk feed? Table 18. Comparison of the Efficiency of Three Selected Bagged Feed Routes Roiitf A: Route B: Route C: Item Low Efficiency Medium Efficiency High Efficiency Quantity (100-lb bags) Route miles No. of stops Elapsed time (man minutes) Bags per stop Bags per mile Man minutes per bag Route costs: Fixed^ Labor^ Other variable^ Total Cost per 100 lbs. Cost per mile Cost per ton mile Cost per ton ^ Proportional to time. ^ Proportional to mileage. The assumptions made under Hypothesis 1 were as follows: (1) Two loads per day for each truck; payload of 5 tons. (2) One stop and one setting per load. (3) Each route 40 miles round trip. (4) Routes efficient from time aspects. (5) One man used in loading and unloading. The assumptions made under Hypothesis 2 were as follows: (1) As many routes as practicable to utilize an 8 hour day for 1 man. For bagged feed this was calculated to be 2 loads of 5 tons each over 40 mile routes and 1 load of 1^/2 tons over a 9 mile route. For bulk feed, two loads of 5 tons each over 40 mile routes and 1 load of 7 tons over a 49 mile route were used. (2) One stop and one setting per load. (3) Routes efficient from time aspects. (4) One man used in loading and unloading. One of the primary problems in building efficient bulk delivery routes is the higher daily depreciation costs on equipment. These costs for bulk equipment may be two to three times those for bagged delivery equipment. Hence, bulk equipment must be used extensively before route time savings are sufficient to offset the higher depreciation costs. Depreciation costs for bagged and bulk delivery trucks in use by one firm are presented in Table 19. Under Hypothesis 1, the operating costs of a 3-ton bagged delivery truck, other than labor, were assumed to equal 13 cents per mile. Gasoline consumption was established at 7 miles per gallon for the bagged truck 39 Table 19. Comparative Costs of Depreciation on Bagged and Bulk Deiivery Trucks Bagged Truck Bulk Truck New cost chassis Less Trade-in Value $4000. 1000. $8600. 2600. Cost for depreciation Annual rate depreciation Cost of body, etc. Annual rate depreciation 3000. 25 7c 500. 10% $750. 50. 6000. 25% 6000. 10% $1500. 600. Total depreciation annual monthly dailyl 800. 66.67 2.86 2100. 175. 7.50 ''- 280 working clays p-r year. and 6. .55 miles per gallon for the bulk truck. A small additional amount was included under "other variable costs" for greater maintenance costs on the bulk equipment. Driver's time was included at $1.50 per hour. Under Hypothesis 2, "gas and oil" and "oi^her variable costs" were pro- jected from Hypothesis 1 on the basis of the increased mileage; driver cost on the basis of the increased time. The time calculations used were as follows: Bagged truck: Route miles, 40, 9 Rt = 1[95 + 1(.5) -f 1(1.0) + 100(.39)] + 1 [.025(0)] Rt 135.5 min. Rt = 1 [27.5 + 1 (.5) + 1 (1.0) + 30 (.39)] + 1 [.025(0)] Rt = 41.0 min. Route Miles Quantity per Load Time per Route Adjusted for No. of Routes: Time per Adjusted for Loading Route No. of Rout'^s Time Office Timo Total Time Hypothesis 1 : 40 10,000 135.5 271.0 98.0 40.0 409.0 A..dded for Hypothesis 2: 9 3,000 41.0 41.0 10.0 20.0 71.0 FuU day 89 23,000 312.0 108.0 60.0 480.0 Bulk Truck: Route miles, 40, 49 Rt = 1[95 + 1 (2.0) + 1 (1.0) + 100 (.19)] + 1[.025 (0) ] Rt = 117.0 min. Rt = 1[112 + 1(2.0) H- 1(1.0) + 140(.19)] + 1[.025(0)] Rt = 145.0 min. 40 Route Miles Quantity per Load Time per Route Time per Route Adjust'^d for No. of Routes Adjusted for No. of Routes: Loading Time Office Time Total Time Hypothesis 1 : Added for Hypothesis 2: 40 49 10,000 14,000 117.0 145.0 234.0 145.0 24.0 17.0 40.0 20.0 298.0 182.0 Full day 129 34,000 379.0 41.0 60.0 480 0 Under the conditions assumed for Hypothesis 1, it is apparent that the delivery cost per ton (or coincidentally, per mile) is cheaper for bagged feed than for bulk feed. The delivery cost per ton derived in Table 20 was $2.06 for the former; S2.29 for the latter, at the 80-mile, 10-ton level. If we calculate for comparative purposes, the number of bags per stop (100.0) ; the number of bags per mile (2.5); and the man minutes per bag (2.04) for the bagged routes in Table 20 seems slightly better than that in Ex- ample B, Table 18 (from the modal area of the route data). Hence, this suggests the following application: If bulk equipment is used to the extent Table 20. Daily Operating Costs of Bagged and Bulk Delivery Trucks Under Assumed Conditions Cost Item Bagged Truck Bulk Truck Hypothesis 1: Fixed costs: Truck depreciation S2.86 $7.50 Other fixed costs 2.00 2.00 Variable costs: Driver 10.22 7.44 Gas and oil 3.05 3.25 Other variable costs 2.50 2.75 22.94 Total operating costs: 20.63 Cost per mile: .258 .287 Cost per ton: 2.06^^ 2.29 Cost per ton mile: Tons delivered per day: Truck miles per day: .0258 .0287 10.0 10.0 80.0 80.0 Hypothesis 2: Fixed costs: Truck depreciation 2.86 7.50 Other fixed costs 2.00 2.00 Variable costs: Driver 12.00 12.00 Gas and oil 3.39 5.23 Other variable costs 2.75 4.40 Total operating costs: 23.00 31.13 Cost per mile: .258 .241 Cost per ton: 2.00 1.83 Cost per ton mile: .0224 .0142 Tons delivered per day: 11.5 17.0 Truck miles per day: 89.0 129.0 41 of average use of bagged equipment, the latter is more efTicient in terms of overall delivery costs per unit. However, under Hypothesis 2, each type of equipment is used to feasible capacity (full 8-hour day for the operator), and the cost per ton (or coincidentally, per mile) appears lo\v'er for delivering bulk feed than Lagged feed. Here, the performance of the bagged delivery operation was not changed much from that in Hypothesis 1 in terms of the cost per ton (S2.00 vs. S2.06) ; number of bags per stop (76.6 vs. 100.0); number of bags per mile (2. .58 vs. 2.50); and man minutes per bag (2.09 vs. 2.04). It was not possible to do much with the bagged truck beyond the original premise of 80-miles, 10-tons. But with the bulk equipment, performance could be stepped-up considerably, and economies in operation resulted from the substantial advantage in tonnage over the bagged equipment. This result concurs with conclusions reached by Rickey on the basis of data for a west coast cooperative using bulk delivery for a number of years.* With the bulk equipment it is possible to deliver more feed in a day, and when the full advantage can be had, unit costs become lower than for bagged feed delivery. The achievement of this result under New Hampshire conditions is difficult in many areas. There is also the further problem of trying to main- tain efficient routes for delivering bagged feed v/here the two systems exist simultaneously. Here, if the larger customers are skimmed off to make efficient bulk routes, the remaining customers must be re-grouped into effi- cient bagged routes if the aggregate result is to be advantageous to the company. To construct hypothetical average cost curves with which to illustrate the effect of the introduction of bulk feed delivery into an area, all condi- tions except those varying with tonnage were held constant. Territory route mileage was initially assumed at 80 and it was further assumed there were two routes of approximately the same length and complexity (three stops and settings). Thus, tonnage was the only variable up to the points where full use was being made of the equipment (in terms of feasible tonnage and full utilization of the drivers' time). As in the preceding examples, calcu- lations were based on one man per truck. When the points of full use were reached, it was assumed that a small truck would be added to carry bagged feed on short local routes, in lieu of adding another piece of large equip- ment (which would have abruptly jumped the average cost curves). The costs assumed for the small truck are presented in Tables 21 and 22. The route time formula was combined with loading time and office time to compute the time component of total costs. For purposes of calculating loading time, an average loading time of .12 man minutes per 100 pounds was used for bulk feed. For bagged feed, the following estimates of loading time in man minutes per 100 pounds, as derived from Table 12 were used; up to 50 bags, .47; 50-90, .55; 90-130, .63; over 130, .71. These figures are averages from the 1-man data classified by numbers of 100-pound bags and by stops (in this example, 3). From the average cost curves in Figure 10, the importance of securing maximum utilization of bulk equipment is apparent. Only when this is done does the average cost per ton for delivery fall below that for bagged feed * Rickey, L. F., Delivering Feed in Bulk, Farm Credit Administration, U.S.D.A., Circ. C-143, January, 1952, p. 19. 42 delivery. Or, to restate an earlier premise, only then are the route time savings sufficient to more than offset the higher equipment depreciation cost. Table 21. Costs of Depreciation on Small Truck Delivering Bagged Grain Item Value New cost chassis Less trade-in value $2000. 500. Cost for depreciation 1500. Annual rate depreciation Cost of body, etc. Annual rate depreciation 25% 100. 10% $375. 10. Total depreciation: annual monthly dailyi 385. 32.08 1.37 ^ 280 working days per year. Table 22. Daily Operating Costs of Small Truck Delivering Bagged Grain Under Assumed Conditions Fixed costs: Truck depreciation $1.37 $1.37 Other fixed costs 1.00 1.00 Variable costs: Driver 2.37 4.74 Gas and oil^^ .53 1.05 Other variable costs 1.00 1.00 Total operating costs: 6.27 9.16 Cost per mile: .3135 .2290 Cost per ton: 3.135 2.290 Cost per ton mile: .1570 .0572 Tons delivered per day: 2.0 4.0 Truck miles per day 20 40 ^Gasoline mileage — 10 miles per gallon; oil consumption — 1 qt./400 mi. With Figure 10 as a working basis some of the theoretical competitive aspects of the introduction of bulk delivery into an area can be explored. Suppose, for example, that Company A decides to buy bulk equipment and has arranged to shift over some of its largest customers to this method. If, for example, Company A now has 3 trucks equipped for delivering bagged feed and nearly maximum use is being made of these trucks the average (2 x 14 = 28 \ 1 X 12 = 21 I 40 / delivery cost per ton for 40 tons daily I 1 x 12 r= 12 ■ is $1.82. If 10 tons V 40 / daily can be delivered in bulk (average delivery cost per ton — $2.32), then the 3 bagged trucks divide 30 tons between them (average delivery cost per ton for 10 tons — $2.15). Whereas, the average cost for all de- liveries was formerly $1.82 per ton, it is now $2.19, per ton, i.e., 43 New 10 X $2.32 = $23.20 30 X 2.15 = 64.50 Old 28 X $1.79 = $50.20 12 X 1.88 = 22.60 40 X (2.19) 87.70 40 X (1.82) = 72.80 Suppose, however, that Company A sells one of its trucks now used in bagged deliveries and is able to convert 16 tons to bulk, dividing the re- mainder between the two bagged trucks. Under such conditions the former average cost for all bagged feed delivery was $1.82 per ton, but the new arrangements would result in a new average cost for all deliveries of $1.73 per ton, i.e., New Old 24 X $1.88 = $45.12 16 X 1.51 = 24.16 28 X 12 X n.79 = $50.20 1.88 = 22.60 40 X (1.73) 69.28 40 X (1.82) = 72.80 In both of the preceding examples, equipment is used at relatively high efficiency. Use at less efficient rates would increase the likelihood that dis- economies would result from the superimposing of bulk feed delivery on top of an established bagged feed delivery system. Any attempt to subdivide a given share of the market between two systems obviously will increase average costs in the short run. Thus, fol- lowing the same approach as the preceding, any new firm entering a given market and taking customers away from the established firms because it offers bulk delivery may: (1) experience difficulty even in the short run in obtaining enough volume to cut its own costs to a reasonable level; (2) o I- tK UJ Q- m a: o Q I h- (n o o -BULK FEED DELIVERY MAXIMUM USE OF BAGGED EQUIPMENT -ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT ADDED BAGGED FEED DELIVERY --^ MAXIMUM USE OF BULK EQUIPMENT 0 I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 TONS DELIVERED PER DAY Figure 10. Average cost curves for bagged and bulk feed delivery under assumed conditions. 44 raise average delivery costs for the other firms. In order to keep customers, some of the other firms might also go into bulk, but their short-run position may turn out to be even worse than the new firm entirely on bulk or the established firms which do not go into bulk, inasmuch as they are split between two systems. With the present alternatives of bagged or bulk delivery as used in this section, the long-run picture will be dependent upon whether full use can be made of either or both types of systems. In many areas of New Hampshire it would be difficult to carve out efficient bulk routes without going beyond the radius of feasible operation. In others, where efficient bulk routes and efficient bagged routes can be developed, average delivery costs could possibly be reduced in the long run. An Aiternative AAethod of Distributing Feed A promising alternative intermediate between regular bagged or bulk delivery, lies in the development of a hopper-and-elevating mechanism attached to a base on the truck, and which can be placed in position for unloading by power rather than by hand. This would in effect be a com- bination method, making bulk feed available to those customers who want it, but permitting others who do not, or who have units of smaller size, to be served with bagged feed. Such a method would eliminate handling of bags by the farmer, but would entail the opening and dumping of bags at the farm by the dealer's crew in instances where this is not now done in unloading bagged feed. However, it would be desirable and quite possible to sew bags in such a fashion that they could be opened more rapidly than is possible with some systems now in use. Bags could be taken back to the loading point without entering the farm grain storage area. Several companies have for some time been interested in a system of this general type to provide the option of bulk or bagged feed to their customers. It is likely that such a unit could be made considerably cheaper than conventional bulk bodies and mechanisms. However, units of this type which have materialized from years of develop- ment v/ork still require two men. As such, they do not offer the potential economies which would exist if but one man could be used. Using some of the time and cost data presented earlier, it is possible to make rough estimates of the cost effects of a combination system. In Table 23 there are presented estimates of the depreciation costs of such delivery equipment. Since knowledge about the truck chassis is limited the costs used are the extremes — bagged truck and bulk truck — and the midpoint. Suppose further that submitted with the specifications to the engineers is the provision that the body cost for the hopper-elevating unit shall not exceed $3,000. In terms of depreciation, therefore, the truck and unit cost will lie between those in Table 23 for regular bagged and bulk trucks. Basic to realizing the full economies of the hopper-elevating method is the specification that it can be operated by one man. In the absence of data regarding operating time, it can be further assumed that the truck and mechanism can be readied for unloading at the farm in about the same time as with regular bulk units. So far as unloading time is concerned, actual unloading time per unit should probably not differ greatly from that for a conveyor (see Table 17), except that one man rather than two can do the job under our assumptions. If it is made easy for that one man to open 45 bags, he should be able to open and dump a bag into the hopper in about the same time it would take him to lift a bag and place it on a conventional conveyor. For purposes of uniformity of analysis, let us assume further that the truck will be loaded by hand truck, and that one man would do the loading (as for regular bagged and bulk comparisons). In Table 13 it was observed that one man using a hand truck could unload a railroad car onto a truck at a rate of 0.20 man minutes per 100 pounds. But since the loading of a delivery truck might be more complex, 0.30 man minutes per 100 pounds has been used herein. Note that this rate is actually only slightly lower than was achieved in certain instances of efficient loading by hand. In order to attempt to offset in part the time savings of gravity loading of regular bulk feed, it would probably pay to mechanize loading, perhaps to the extent of using a chute, conveyor, and additional men. This would not tie up the truck for as long as having one man do the loading, but the final decision would be based upon comparison of man minutes and truck time involved. Table 23. Estimated Costs of Depreciation on Hopper-Elevating Delivery Truck Assumptions Use of Truck Chassis Item Use of Bagged Truck Chassis (dollars) 1 Use of Bulk 'ruck Chassis (dollars) Intermediate Between Bagged and Bulk (dollars) New cost chassis Less Trade-in value 4,000 1,000 8,600 2,600 6,300 1,800 Cost for depreciation 3,000 6,000 4,500 Annual rate depreciation Cost of hody, etc. 25% 3,000 750 25% 3,000 1,500 25% 3,000 1,125 Annual rate depreciation 10% 300 10% 300 10% 300 Total depreciation: annual monthly dailyi 1,050 87.50 3.75 1,800 150 5.36 1,425 118.75 5.09 ^ 280 working days per year. Having outlined the assumptions of the analysis, they can be tested in two ways: (1) Using the hopper-elevating system as a pure method, paralleling the calculations presented in Table 20 for regular bagged and bulk feed as pure methods. This will test the costs of the hopper-elevating method against the regular systems, (Hypothesis 3.) (2) Since the hopper-elevating system offers greatest promise where there may be a mixture of bagged and bulk customers, but perhaps not enough of either to keep separate delivery units occupied at capacity, a second test can be made of average costs (see Figure 10). Here, for sim- 46 plicity, it is assumed that the customers and volume are divided 50-50 be- tween bagged and bulk feed, except that loading will be done by one man using a hand truck. (Hypothesis 4.) Under the first test, the same conditions can be used as under Hypotheses 1 and 2, and calculate time according to the delivery route formula and other assumptions previously stated: Hopper-elevating truck: Route miles, 40, 28 + Rt =r 95 + 1(20) + 1(1.0) + 100(.20) + 1(.025(0) ) Rt = 118.0 min. Rt = 71 + 1(2.0) + 1(1.0) + 100(.20) + 1(.025(0) ) Rt = 94 Thus, with the hopper-elevating method as a pure system, it appears from the preceding and succeeding calculations that the time requirements for a route of 40 miles and 5 tons would be less than with the regular bagged system, but more than those for the regular bulk system. In terms of full use of the truck and driver, it seems probable that with the hopper- elevating method, more miles and more tonnage would be indicated than with the regular bagged system, but less miles and less tonnage than with the regular bulk system. Admittedly, the precise values of miles and tons in Tables 20 and 24 could be varied with different combinations chosen, but herein the totals have been forced to equal 480 minutes, and an attempt made to stay within reasonable mileage and quantities. The particular mile- ages and quantities seem to work out rather conveniently in terms of the various time rates considered. The reconciliation to 480 minutes follows: Route Miles Quantity per Loaf! Time per Route Time per Route Adjusted for No. of Routes Adjusted for No. of Routes Loading Time Office Time Total Time Hypothesis 3: Hypothesis 4: 40 28 10,000 10,000 118.0 94.0 236.0 94.0 60.0 30.0 40.0 20.0 336.0 144.0 108 30,000 330.0 90.0 60.0 480.0 Combining the time analysis with the depreciation estimates and esti- mates of variable costs other than labor results in the data in Table 24. Comparing these results, particularly cost per ton, with those in Table 20, indicate that for the 80 mile-10 ton calculations (Hypothesis 3) the hopper- elevating method is cheaper than bulk, but may be more or less than bagged, depending upon the truck chassis cost. With full use of driver's time (Hypothesis 4), the hopper-elevating method appears cheaper than bagged, and may even be cheaper than bulk if the assumptions of the analysis hold and truck chassis can cost less than that for regular bulk equipment. If this be true, then the hopper-elevating method, operated efficiently by one man, would be an alternative well worth exploration. 47 Table 24. Daily Operating Costs of Hopper-Elevating Truck under Assumed Conditions Minimum Cost U nit Maximum Cost Unit Hypoth( 3sis 3: Fixed Costs: Truck depreciation 3.75 5.36 Other fixed costs 2.00 2.00 Variable Costs: Driver 8.40 8.40 Gas and oil 3.10 3.20 Other variable costs 2.60 2.70 Total operating costs 19.85 21.66 Cost per mile .248 .271 Cost per ton 1.98 2.17 Cost per ton mile .0248 .0278 Tons delivered per day 10.0 10.0 Truck miles per day 80.0 80.0 Hypothesis 4: Fixed Costs: Truck depreciation 3.75 5.36 Other fixed costs 2.00 2.00 Variable Costs: Driver 12.00 12.00 Gas and oil 4.18 4.32 Other variable costs 3.51 3.64 Total operating costs 25.44 27.32 Cost per mile .236 .253 Cost per ton 1.70 1.82 Cost per ton mile .0157 .0169 Tons delivered per day 15.0 15.0 Truck miles per day 108 + 108 + To test the probable cost position of the hopper-elevating method where it is used for both bagged and bulk deliveries, it is assumed that in actual practice it is possible to mount the mechanism on a truck chassis inter- mediate in price between the regular bagged and bulk trucks. Implicit are the same conditions with respect to territory route mileage (80 per day), number of routes (2 per day), and complexity of routes (3 stops and settings each). Calculated delivery costs per ton for bagged, bulk, and the alternative method, where quantity is the primary variable, are presented in Table 25. In Table 25 the alternative method shows up as intermediate in cost per ton between regular bagged and bulk methods through the 10-ton level. At that point it is equal to bagged delivery costs, but cheaper than the regular bulk method. At the 14-ton level, it appears to be characterized by the lov/est per ton costs. Route Income Some feed companies appraise the efficiency of grain delivery routes by comparing the "net income" from the various routes. "Net income" is the difference between gross income from delivery charges and calculated costs. Gross income is calculated by: (a) multiplying the number of units 48 delivered by a constant delivery charge per unit, or (b) totalling units times variable charges where delivery charges vary with quantity. Calcu- lated costs are generally derived by adding equipment costs (mileage times an average per mile value for fixed and operating costs) and labor costs (driver and helpers' time at given rates per hour). Such an analysis will aid to a degree in spotting some problem routes. However, without further analysis it does not show the comparison of each route with its potential efficiency. Use of estimated values for delivery charges would in itself bias conclusions reached about particular routes. It is felt that delivery charges per unit should evolve from cost analysis. Hence, it is suggested that time-breakdown studies are a better approach to studying route efficiency, and likely to yield more dependable results than the route income approach. Table 25. Costs per Ton of Loodingl^ and De'ivering Feed by Alternative Methods, Assumed Conditions Tons Delivered M.-thod 2 4 6 8 10 12 11 16 18 Regular bagged feed delivery $8.61 $4.53 13.20 $2.52 $2.15 $1.88 $1.79 $1.98 Bulk feed delivery 11.00 5.58 3.77 2.87 2.32 1.96 1.70 1.51 1.58 Bagged feed: 50% unloaded by hand, 50% by hopper-elevating mechanism 9.83 5.17 3.48 2.68 2.20 1.89 1.66 '■Regular bagged feed loaded by one man by hand; bulk feed loaded by gravity from overhead bins; bagged feed loaded for combination method by one man using hand truck. 5. Handling Bulk vs. Bagged Feed TH E distribution of grain-feed in bulk has substantially increased since the method was introduced into New Hampshire a few years ago. As of December 1, 1952, it was estimated that about 3 percent of the total grain consumed in the State was delivered in bulk.* For 1953, it was esti- mated that the proportion was about S^/i percent on an annual average basis. On the basis of data obtained during the early part of 1954, the annual average rate of bulk feed deliveries in 1954 probably exceeded 5 percent of total usage of grain-feeds in New Hampshire. The development and operation of bulk feed distribution in New Hampshire to early 1954 was largely confined to the southeastern area of the State, in the counties of Hillsboro, Rockingham, Merrimack, and Straf- ford. This area offered the most fruitful field to convert present customers or obtain new customers in sufficient numbers to permit some of the econo- mies of bulk feed to be realized. * Woodworth, H. C, Handling Grain in Bulk on New Hampshire Poultry Farms, N. H. Agr. Exp. Sta., Ag. Ec. Research Mimeograph No. 11, Jan. 1, 1953, p. 1. 49 Further extension of the conventional bulk delivery method, and the rate of that growth is dependent upon the size of the "potential market" and upon the evaluation made of the advantages and disadvantages by dealers and producers. Some dealers may add bulk service to follow the lead of competitors, rather than on the basis of expected savings. This section will discuss the "potential market" and the "pros and cons" of bulk feed from the dealer's standpoint. The "Potential Market" for Bulk Feed Considerable interest has been manifested by feed companies in the size of the "potential market" for bulk feed in New Hampshire. A gross evaluation of the "potential" can be obtained from examination of data on unit size distribution, but the attainable market for bulk feed at any one time will be smaller to the extent of a number of limiting factors. Table 26 shows the numbers of farms, by unit size, having particular classes of livestock. Calculations with these data and per unit feed require- ments indicate insufficient unit size and volume on a statewide basis to justify carrying bulk feed for hogs and sheep (Table 26). The same is probably true of horses and beef cattle. Indeed, carrying bulk feed for turkeys also might prove impractical in almost all instances because of the relatively small number of farms with minimum unit size justifying bulk feed delivery. The feed company concerned should count up the number of customers whose requirements meet its minimum delivery policy, and then Table 26. Numbers of Farms Having Specified Livestock Classes, by Unit Size Intervals, New Hampshire, 1950 Type of Stock Total No. of Farms Re porting by Intervals Cattle, all ages^ 8,287 Under 10 4,941 10-24 1,905 25-49 1,088 50-99 311 100 and over 42 7,843 7,585 Under 5 .5-14 15-29 30-49 50-99 100 and over Cows, including heifers that have calved^ Milk Cowsi 4,503 4.342 2,005 1,954 1.039 1,005 242 235 48 47 6 2 6,973 4,066 306 Under 100 100- 399 400- 799 800- 1,599 1,600- 3,199 3,200 or more Chickens on hand^ Chicken eggs sold^ Turkeys raised- 4,283 1,766 189 1,080 970 56 627 627 33 428 428 9 167 167 19"' 108 108 542 Under 5 5-9 10 and over Sows and gilts for spring farrowing-"^ 431 64 47 348 Under 25 25-49 50-99 100-299 AH sheep and lambs'* 298 34 15 1 April 1, 1950 ^ Number on hand 2 Number raised ' Number reported * Number shorn ^ 1,600 and over Source: 1950 Census of Agriculture 50 decide whether the aggregate justified tying up a bulk bin for the time needed to fill and unload it in the course of regular deliveries of grain-feed for that class of livestock (such as turkeys) and for other classes. Thus, it appears that the "potential market" for bulk feed is limited in most areas to dairy cattle, laying hens, and chickens for replacement and/or meat. Even with these items there are areas where the number of units of desired size will be insufficient to justify bulk feed operations for one or more of the preceding classes of livestock. Hence the "potential market" for bulk feed for dairy cattle, laying hens, and chickens for re- placement and/or meat is smaller than could be inferred from the data in Table 26 and per unit feed requirements, but the exact relationship cannot be stated in the absence of a comprehensive survey of the area served by each distributing unit. The existence of a number of sellers in each area further reduces the "potential" at least in the short run, the customers of sufficient size for bulk feed service being spread among these several sellers. Data collected for southeai>tern New Hampshire in the course of route efficiency studies are interesting from the standpoint of suggesting the un- adjusted "potential market" for bulk feed in one area. For 60 bagged and bulk delivery routes, 40 percent of the routes, or 24, were 1- and 2-stop routes. These routes involved only 7 percent of the total number of stops, but over 47 percent of the total tonnage. The average number of 100-pound units delivered on 1-stop bagged routes was 104.3; on 1-stop bulk routes, 128.2. On 2-stop bagged routes, an average of 62.5 100-pound units were delivered per stop; for 2-stop bulk routes, the comparable figure was 67.5. In general, these are the types of routes which would receive first consider- ation for conversion to bulk feed. Data tabulated for 408 deliveries (stops) of grain-feed on bagged routes involved a total of 4,647 100-pound units. Deliveries of 40 bags (2 tons) or over, involved only 7.1 percent of the stops, but 48.2 percent of the total tonnage (see Table 27). Apparently, most of the large customers are supplied via 1- or 2-stop routes (regularly scheduled or on call). With deliveries of 20 bags (1 ton) or over, 13.2 of the customers and 61.7 per- cent of the tonnage were covered. These data are totals for all units operating in the area. It is unquestion- ably incorrect to assume that the preceding data are indicative of the pro- portion of customers or tonnage it would be possible to convert to bulk feed for a number of reasons. It is known that the percentages should be re- duced somewhat to account for the inclusion of several kinds of feed in some of the orders. Neither is the area covered in the data typical for other areas of the State. Table 27. Analysis of 408 Deliveries of Grain-Feed in Southeastern New Hampshire No. of Percent of Percent of Average 100-pound Total Total Number of Number of Bags Bags per Delivery Deliveries Bags Delivered per Delivery 1- 3 46.9 7.2 1.74 4- 9 24.5 13.4 6.21 10-19 15.4 17.7 13.03 20-39 6.1 13.5 25.12 40-79 4.2 19.5 53.55 80 and over 2.9 28.7 111.42 100.0 100.0 11.29 51 At this point it might be well to elaborate on a number of consider- ations which limit the size of the "potential market" for bulk feed aside from unit size and number of sellers. These are: (1) accessibility of farm and farm storage; (2) inclination of the producer or specifications of con- tractors or hatcheries; (3) feeding program followed; (4) feed company policy relative to size of minimum delivery; and (5) keeping character- istics of feed, i.e., determining frequency of delivery. As previously noted, inaccessibility may exclude some farms from con- sideration for bulk feed delivery. A suggestion, attributed to J. C. Taylor, included the recommendation that a study of highway and farm driveway conditions should be the basis for determining the use of the new style of delivery, and the comment that a suitable truck road open the year round with at least a 12 foot clearance is a practical need.* Weight limits, width, overhead clearance, and seasonal variations in road and driveway condi- tions, as well as maneuvering room need to be taken into account. Because of the heavier truck chassis required for the bulk feed body and unloading equipment, and the additional weight of those items them- selves, the adoption of bulk feed delivery tends to increase tare weight. Use of aluminum bodies would help minimize this effect. If a customer tak- ing 5 tons of feed per delivery is located on a road with a load limit of 8 tons gross weight, a truck of 2-3 tons empty weight could make the delivery. However, with a 3-ton truck chassis and a 214-ton bulk body and unloader, a load of 5 tons would gross 101/4 tons, or in excess of the road limit. During the spring months many New Hampshire roads are virtually impassable due to mud. Hence, a customer normally receiving bulk service might need to be serviced by a small truck and with bagged feed for the duration of the difficult going. Such special arrangements are obviously less efficient than standardized operations, and coming in number at one time, might deter the introduction of bulk feed service to such units in the first place. Under-emphasis by some farmers upon the building and maintenance of serviceable farm roads and driveways, which are frequently unsatisfactory for non-bulk delivery, would initially preclude them from being serviced by the heavier bulk feed delivery equipment. Somewhat more room is required for maneuvering bulk delivery equipment into position for unloading than is generally necessary for non-bulk delivery equipment. To provide adequate facilities with respect to the preceding might require cash outlay and/or time, rearrangement, building or rebuilding of a magnitude that a farmer would be unwilling or unable to undertake. Some producers, whose farms are of sufficient unit size to warrant con- version to bulk feed, may not be inclined to make the move. As with most agricultural service innovations, the impetus to secure adoption rests large- ly with the supplier. Farmers generally have to be sold on the idea in terms of convenience or efficiency, but in the case of bulk feed or any other new method, requiring extensive building or remodelling, the presence of an additional incentive in the form of a substantial cash savings is a help- ful inducement. However, matters other than bulk feed are likely to receive priority on some farms despite a convincing presentation of its merits. A feed company may also find itself unable to extend bulk feed service to additional farm units because of the inclinations of and limitations im- * Benson, H. J., "Farm Delivery of Feed in Bulk," Eastern Feed Merchant, Jan., 1952, p. 67. 52 posed by broiler contractors or hatcheries with respect to brand of feed, feeding program, or installation of automatic feeders. Some broiler con- tractors appear opposed to the use of the latter because they want growers to work closely with their birds at all times and regard hand feeding as an integral part of the program. Hence, bulk feed coupled with mechanization, a strong selling point, cannot be pertinently suggested to the grower. The type of feeding program which a producer follows on his own or under direction, bears directly upon the feasibility of extending bulk feed service to that farm. In general, the more complex the program — in terms of kinds of separate feeds used — the larger the unit size must be before bulk service can be used. For example, if it is proper to deliver about every two weeks, and the company's policy permits deliveries of not less than one ton of any one item at a time, then a producer feeding all-mash who has about 500 laying birds might qualify. However, with a mash-and-scratch program, and the same conditions of delivery, the flock would probably need to be twice as large. Size of minimum delivery and frequency of delivery may be inter- related and thus are herein discussed together. The size of minimum delivery is partially a resultant of the equipment in use for loading, weighing, and hauling bulk feed. In weighing, it is impossible to stop the gravity flow on the exact figure every time. In the interests of efficiency the load may run over or under a few pounds. Below a ton, the same margin of error in pounds would become progressively greater percentagewise, and even though payment is on actual quantity, probably would be more troublesome to smaller than to larger producers. With most bulk trucks now in use in the State, bins hold about two tons each. It seems reasonable that one-ton de- liveries be set as the minimum, though two is preferable from the cost standpoint. However, a few one-ton orders mixed in with larger orders would help keep the equipment operating close to capacity in many areas without too much additional outlay. The use of a one-ton minimum delivery in selected cases would not only help enlarge the "potential market", but would he within the quantitative discount breakdowns suggested earlier in the bulletin. Frequency of delivery, as minimum delivery size, seems now to be largely a matter of company policy and/or opinion. As previously pointed out, controlled experimentation on the keeping characteristics of grain-feeds under New Hampshire farm storage conditions is needed. This work should concern itself with both bagged and bulk feed. With producing stock (milk cows or laying hens), size of the animal and level of production introduce some variation into computations. In Table 29, however, a standard rate is used for milk cows, and variation for laying hens covers only a few levels of production. The latter, as well as body weight, actually effects only minor variation in laying flock cal- culations. With growing stock, minimum unit size shifts with age, i.e., as feed consumption per unit increases. These shifts are obviously substantial (Table 28). However, if a company can justify very infrequent delivery for the first few weeks, or preferably, service with bagged feed, the mini- mum number of growing chickens needed to justify bulk feed service is rather low after that period. Hence, the bulk feed market could be enlarged. In practice, this adjustment on growing stock might involve the following: 53 ig flock: (a) On farms where there is a laying ( 1 ) bulk feed for layers ( 2 ) bagged feed for a few weeks for replacements carried on side racks of bulk truck (3) bulk feed for replacements after a few weeks. (b) On farms where meat production predominates: (1) bagged feed for a few weeks out of the nearest store, and worked into regular routes (2) bulk feed after a few weeks. Table 28. Cumulative and Weekly Feed Consumption for Selected Meat Chicken Flock Sizes Week Cuniu lative Feed Consumption (tons) Weekly Feed Consumption (tons) Number of Birds Number of Birds 2,000 .2 5,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 10,000 1 .5 1.0 .2 .5 1.0 2 .5 1.25 2.5 .3 .75 1.5 3 1.0 2.5 5.0 .5 1.25 2.5 4 1.6 4.0 8.0 .6 1.5 3.0 5 2.4 6.0 12.0 .8 2.0 4.0 6 3.3 8.25 16.5 .9 2.25 4.5 7 4.4 11.0 22.0 1.1 2.75 5.5 8 5.6 14.0 28.0 1.2 3.0 6.0 9 7.0 17.5 35.0 1.4 3.5 7.0 10 8.6 21.5 43.0 1.6 4.0 8.0 11 10.3 25.75 51.5 1.7 4.25 8.5 12 12.2 30.5 61.0 1.9 4.75 9.5 13 14.2 35.5 71.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 14 16.4 41.0 82.0 2.2 5.5 11.0 15 18.8 47.0 94.0 2.4 6.0 12.0 16 21.3 53.25 106.5 2.5 6.25 12.5 17 23.8 59.5 119.0 2.5 6.25 12.5 18 26.2 65.5 131.0 2.4 6.0 12.0 19 28.5 71.25 142.5 2.3 5.75 11.5 20 30.8 77.0 154.0 2.3 5.75 11.5 In conclusion, it might be well to point out that the trend toward larger units will progressively enlarge the "potential market" for bulk feed, other things remaining equal. Also, any appraisal of the current situation relates to equipment, methods and conditions now in existence, and new innova- tions that will have their impact on this issue. Advantages and Disadvantages to the Dealer Bulk feed, where it can be introduced within the conditions set forth in the preceding section, results in simplification of the marketing channels for grain-feeds. In Figure 11 there are diagrammed the steps involved in the marketing of grain-feeds in New Hampshire, as observed in the study. In some other areas, bulk feed is shipped in railroad cars and at desti- nation stored in bins or taken off directly onto trucks, but that method had not yet made its appearance in the State at the time of writing. Here, bulk feed thus far moves mostly directly from mill to producer via truck, except in some instances where bagged feed is emptied into bulk trucks in the absence of local milling of a particular brand. With the method of bulk 54 handling predominant in New Hampshire, several operations are eliminated as compared to the most common method of handling bagged feed. Not all of the advantages and disadvantages of bulk feed can be ascer- tained with reference to such a marketing channels chart. Cases in point relate to plant and equipment costs. Obviously, the cost of facilities at the mill to handle bulk feed will vary with volume. The system may be installed rather simply in new mills, but costs of remodelling some of the older mills may be considerable. One source reported a range of $1,300-35,000 in costs of converting mills to accommodate bulk feed.* Another study reported data for 3 mills, with a range in costs of installing bulk facilities of .$11,821-55,000. f Annual charges for these mills ranged from $2,100-6,150, and costs per ton, with bulk volumes at that time from $117-493. The same study reported little additional investment for a New England mill which installed a by-pass from the second floor to divert feed from the sacking scale out through the side of the mill to a spot where trucks were loaded. Here, bulk feed was available by appointment only and had to be hauled in farmers' trucks or by local haulers. Table 29. Number of Animal Units Required for Minimum Deliveries of Bulk-Feed under Assumed Conditions Class of Every Week Every 2 Weeks Every 3 Weeks Every 4 Weeks Livestock 2 tons 2 tons 2 tons 2 tons Numbi ■r of H-ad Milk Cowsi 108 54 36 27 Laying Hens^ 30% production 2,041 1,020 680 510 50% 1,905 952 635 479 70% " 1,786 893 595 446 Commercial Meat Chickens^ 1 week old 20,000 10,000 6,667 5,000 2 weeks old 13,333 6,667 4,444 3,333 3 ' t rr 8,000 4,000 2,667 2,000 4 ' t rf 6,667 3,333 2,222 1,667 5 ' t It 5,000 2,500 1,667 1,250 6 ' r tr 4,444 2,222 1,481 1,111 7 ' r tt 3,637 1,818 1,212 909 8 1 tf 3,333 1.667 1,111 833 9 t ft 2,857 1,429 952 714 10 t tt 2,500 1,250 833 625 11 t It 2,353 1,176 784 588 12 1 ft 2,105 1,053 702 526 13 1 It 2,000 1,000 667 500 14 1 ft 1,818 909 606 454 15 1 It 1,667 833 556 416 16 1 It 1,600 800 533 400 17 f ft 1,600 800 533 400 18 tt tt 1,667 833 556 416 19 '1 It 1,739 869 580 434 20 " 1,739 869 580 434 1 1930 pounds of grain per cow annually, Table 3. - Rates of consumption from : Frick, G. E , and W K. Burkett, Farm Management Reference Manual, University of N. H. Ext. Service and BAE Cooperat ng, Ext. Circ . 307, Sept., 1953 p. 17. * Benson, H. J., op. cit. tRickey, L. F., op. cit., p. 6-7, 16, 19, 22. 55 MIXING /- H 6 ^ C^H J .... WAREHOUSE H RAILROAD CAR H deliveryI TRUCK 1 A BAGGING nm^^i ^^B^^l C c C ^ \ \ H%C H^C V H \ SUPPLY TRUCK A RETAIL STORE / \ s^ \ \ \ - C ll producer's ^GRAIN STORAGE ' ^...^^ ^ ^ BULK LOADING BINS deliveryI TRUCK 1 C G - KEY- 1 ■ MOST COMMON METHODS C " CONVEYOR ALTERNATE METHODS G - GRAVITY FLOW Figure 11. H- HAND LABOR P- AUGER OR PNEUMATIC Handling grain-feeds in New Hampshire from mill to producer's grain storage. The additional costs of the equipment for delivering bulk feed are sub- stantial, i.e., from $3,000-6,000 for a mechanized bulk delivery body plus an additional cost for a heavier truck chassis.* In addition, costs of main- taining this equipment are likely to be higher than with bagged trucks. Maintenance problems involve specialized knowledge, possiblv not available locally. Temporarv breakdowns of bulk equipment may also involve the additional costs of securing replacement trucks, sometimes from consider- able distances away, while repairs are made. It would appear that the weight of evidence points to the existence of economies in handling grain-feeds in bulk as compared to bags. However, the stage of development of bulk distribution, the area, the particular com- pany involved, and the extent to which the "potential market" can be and has been exploited, all affect the individual case. It is to be expected that in the early stages of developjnent average costs are likely to exceed those for the long-established method. From this situation it mav appear, as frequently contended, that "two methods cost more than one". But this may be a phenomenon of the short- run rather than the long-run, when adjust- ments have been made to bring both methods toward maximum efficiencv. Obviouslv, this end result might come about only after rather drastic changes in capital and organizational structure of the particular company. As with the situation on deliverv route costs, a newer company might have fewer overall problems to solve than an older company where vested interests and traditional methods pose formidable obstacles. Some of the factors which presently appear as advantages and disad- vantages in the matter of bulk vs. bagged feed are summarized below. * Benson, H. J., op. cit. 56 Advantage Disadvantage At the Mill: Investment in facilities Unless the unit is to handle bulk feed only, there is likely to be a net increase in investment in plant facilities (bins, conveyors, scales) . Bagging Transfer to storage Loading Operation eliminated. A probable saving of the time of one man for that volume handled in bulk. Grain transferred to storage bins mechanically. Net saving in labor, i.e., two men used to hand-truck bagged feed to storage section. Under proper conditions driver can load, but there may also be a dis- patcher-weigher to assist. With bagged feed, two or more men may be used in loading, plus a dis- patcher. Net saving in labor of at least the time of one man. Also, an additional saving in man minutes for the individuals involved, since bulk feed can be loaded faster than bagged feed under proper condi- tions. Delivery Routes: Investment in equipment Equipment maintenance Labor Aggregate delivery costs Tare weight of equipment Depreciation on bulk equipment 2-3 times greater than on bagged equipment. Higher cost on bulk equipment. Repair involves specialized knowl- edge. Replacement trucks may have to be secured from consider- able distance. Bagged routes where more than one man has been used, can be served with bulk equipment using one man except where farm deliveries are difficult. Because bulk feed can be unloaded faster than bagged feed under proper conditions there is an additional net saving in man min- utes for the individuals involved. Potential savings when equipment Probably higher under present used near capacity. Can deliver rates of usage in most instances, more bulk feed than bagged feed in working day. Probably increased with bulk equipment. May preclude some farms from regular service in bulk. 57 Other: Sales arguments Advantage Lower cost to farmer; eliminating potential disease hazard from used bags; grain dealer saves farmer some chore time, with auxiliary equipment farmer can save substan- tial amounts of time; bulk feed may be fresher — dealers claim it is not held as long. Disadvantage Mixed orders Labor Bulk feed eliminates most lifting relations — this will appeal to many workers. Can use older men when necessary. Grain Bulk feed eliminates necessity for bags procurement; arrangements for handling used bags; and complaints about grading of used bags. Elimi- nates bag loss in dealer's storage. Pollution Possibility of somewhat less loss of of feed through pollution by rats and grain mice with bulk feed. Established retail outlets and dealers Bulk not adapted to situations where small-to-medium-sized units require several different types of feed. Bulk feed service may by-pass existing outlets and dealers, vio- late agreements on trade areas. May take the largest customers. May need additional servicemen to replace service furnished by local outlets and dealers. Short- run cost problems because of in- vestment in present distribution setup for bagged feed. 58 In the early stages of the development of bulk feed handling in the East, a number of mechanical and technical problems (rather than the pre- ceding tabulations which are predominently economic problems) were cited rather frequently as drawbacks to the new method. These related to bin construction (new feed drawing through and clogging of bins) ; uniformity of mixtures (feared separation of various-sized particles in storage and hauling) ; tagging and weighing (feared inaccuracies) ; and others of this type. However, these matters were rapidly resolved, and do not pose serious objections today toward extension of the bulk handling method. Conclusions IN the 1955 Census of Agriculture there is ample evidence of a decline in numbers of farms and an increase in unit size. Fewer small units to service should contribute toward increasing the efficiency of retail distri- bution. Relocations and consolidations of retail feed stores are continually in evidence. Determining optimum locations and areas to be serviced from each is a matter of regular concern to feed companies. Much can be done by these companies in the locational area as well as on delivery route re- arrangement and efficiency. Further economies could undoubtedly be real- ized by establishing an exclusive territory system if the institutional frame- work of the industry permitted. Further work is needed on the relative efficiencies of delivering feed by auger-type bulk trucks, pneumatic-type bulk trucks, and the hopper-elevat- ing attachment on regular bagged trucks. Each of these, as well as delivering feed in bags, may be the least cost method under different situations. Larger farm units will accelerate the swing toward bulk feed. Farm bin plans can be developed for several typical situations, but the variation in farm layouts requires modification before most of them could be used for construction. Recent changes in bulk feed pricing are indicative of a shift from the "incentive discount" toward a discount more nearly reflecting actual savings. Further work is needed on the keeping characteristics of feeds under farm conditions. This is closely linked to the determination of frequency of delivery and may well vary seasonally. 59 630. 72 N532 no. 426-450 DATE DUE HOV 4 -^4 iiY 19^ SiM^?*^ ^^T.23'Sg i L F32a .v.. •■: