NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS 13 TRENDS AND VARIABILITY OF YEARLY MEAN SEA LEVEL 1893-1972 Steacy D. Hicks and James E. Crosby Rockville, Md. March 1974 NATIONAL OCEAN (@)) noa NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION SURVEY LL NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDA National Ocean Survey Series The National Ocean Survey (NOS) provides charts and related information for the safe navigation of marine and air commerce. The survey also furnishes other Earth science data--from geodetic, hydro- graphic, oceanographic, geomagnetic, seismologic, gravimetric, and astronomic surveys or observations, investigations, and measurements--to protect life and property and to meet the needs of engineering, scientific, commercial, industrial, and defense interests. NOAA Technical Memoranda NOS series facilitate rapid distribution of material that may be preliminary in nature and which may be published formally elsewhere at a later date. Publications 1 through 8 are in the former series, ESSA Technical Memoranda, Coast and Geodetic Survey Technical Memoranda (C&GST™M) . Beginning with 9, publications are now part of the series, NOAA Technical Memoranda NOS. Publications listed below are available from the National Teciniorl Information Service (NTIS), US. Department of Commerce, Sills Bldg., 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Va. 22151. Price varies for paper copy; $1.45 microfiche, Order by accession number (in parentheses) when given. : ESSA Technical Memoranda C&GSTM 1 Preliminary Measurements With a Laser Geodimeter. S. E. Smathers, G. B. Lesley, R. Tomlin- son, and H. W. Boyne, November 1966. (PB-174-649) C&GSTM 2. Table of Meters to Fathoms for Selected-Intervals. D. E. Westbrook, November 1966. (PB-174- 655) ; C&GSTM 3. Electronic Positioning Systems for Surveyors. Angelo A. Ferrara, May 1967, (PB-175-604) C&GSIM 4 Specifications for Horizontal Control Marks. L. S. Baker, April 1968. (PB-179-343) C&GST™ S Measurement of Ocean Currents by Photogrammetric Methods. Everett H. Ramey, May 1968. (PB~ 179-083) ; C&GSTM 6 Preliminary Results of a Geophysical Study of Portions of the Juan de Fuca Ridge 7nd Blanco q Fracture Zone, William G. Melson, December 1969. (PB-189-226) ‘ C&GSTM 7 Error Study for Determination of Center of Mass of the Earth From Pageos Observations. K. R. Koch and H. H. Schmid, January 1970. (PB-190-982) C&GSTM 8 Performance Tests of Richardson-Type Current Meters: I. Tests 1 Through 7. R. L. Swanson and R, H. Kerley, January 1970. (PB-190-983) NOAA Technical Memoranda NOS 9 The Earth's Gravity Field Represented by a Simple Layer Potential From Doppler Tracking of Satellites. Karl-Rudolf Koch and Bertold U. Witte, April 1971. (COM-71-00668) NOS 10 Evaluation of the Space Optic Monocomparator. Lawrence W. Fritz, June 1971. (COM-71-00768) NOS 11 Errors of Quadrature Connected With the Simple Layer Model of the Geopotential. Karl-Rudolf Koch, December 1971. (COM-72-10135) NOS 12 Trends and Variability of Yearly Mean Sea Level 1893-1971. Steacy D. Hicks, March 1973. (COM-73-10670) SS a oe NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS 13 TRENDS AND VARIABILITY OF YEARLY MEAN SEA LEVEL Its} SS IL) 7/72 Steacy D. Hicks and James E. Crosby Rockville, Md. March 1974 UNITED STATES NATIONAL OCEANIC AND NATIONAL OCEAN DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION SURVEY Frederick B. Dent, Secretary Robert M. White, Administrator Allen L. Powell, Director nm MO mone ey = i * a ait od iq F = TRENDS AND VARIABILITY OF YEARLY MEAN SEA LEVEL, 1893-1972 Steacy D. Hicks and James E. Crosby National Ocean Survey, NOAA Rockville, Maryland ABSTRACT. Sea-level trends, their standard errors, and variability are presented in tabular form for 50 locations along the coasts of the United States. The values are given for the entire series length at each station, the oldest dating from 1893 at New York. For intrastation comparisons, values also are given for the longest length of series common to 46 of the stations, 1940-72. Graphs of yearly mean sea level, upon which the calcu- lations were performed, are plotted for 44 stations. 1. INTRODUCTION This Technical Memorandum is directed toward the manage- ment fields of wetlands preservation, pollution abatement and control, conservation, coastal zone management, and global energy; the engineering fields of beach erosion, harbor and waterway construction, shore and sea boundaries, and coastal inundation; and the scientific fields of glaciology, physical and geological oceanography, meteorology and climatology, tectonics, and geodesy. Since the uses of the calculations may vary greatly, no interpretive text is included. This publica- tion will be issued annually; each issue will incorporate the new yearly mean sea level values in each tabulated calculation and graph. 2. EXPLANATION OF TRENDS AND VARIABILITY Yearly mean sea level is the arithmetic mean of hourly sea level heights obtained from an analog tide gage over a period of one calendar year. The tide gage, often located on a pier, continuously measures sea-level heights relative to the land adjacent to the station location. The gage is connected to bench marks on the adjacent land by precise first-order lev- eling. If possible, the bench marks are located in bedrock. One table and nine illustrations show the trends and variability of yearly mean sea level at permanent tide stations operated by the National Ocean Survey (NOS). Column 1 of the table lists all of the NOS-operated stations that were in opera- tion by 1939 and that had very few and short breaks in measure- ment. In addition, all permanent stations in the greater New York Bight area are included. The inclusive dates of each station series are given in column 2. Where the length of a break in the series is sufficient to invalidate a yearly mean, the missing year is shown in column 3. If a series of yearly mean sea level values is plotted on a graph of height against date, an apparent secular trend and yearly variability become evident. ''Secular'' means nonperi- odic; "apparent'' means it is not known whether the trend is nonperiodic or is merely a segment of a very long oscillation. Apparent secular trends in sea level result from glacial- eustatic, tectonic, and climatological and oceanographic appar- ent secular trend effects. Columns 4 and 7 show the apparent secular trend as the slope of a straight line mathematically fitted through the yearly mean sea level values (see note a on table). About two-thirds of repeated calculations of the ap- parent secular trend will differ from the true apparent secular trend by less than the standard error of slope listed in col- umns 5 and 8 (see note b on table). About 95% of repeated calculations of the apparent secular trend will differ by less than two times the standard error of slope, and practically all repeated calculations will differ by less than three times the standard error of slope. Yearly variability is caused by variations in the mete- orological and oceanographic parameters of wind, direct atmos- pheric pressure, river discharge, currents, salinity, and water temperature. About two-thirds of the yearly mean sea level values will differ from the straight line slope by less than the variability given in columns 6 and 9 (see note e¢ on table). About 95% of the yearly mean sea level values will differ from the line by less than two times the variability, and practically all the values will differ by less than three times the variability. 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NEW LONDON, CONN. Figure 1.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations from Maine to Connecticut. Straight-line segments connect yearly mean sea level values. Curved lines connect yearly values smoothed by weighting array. TIME, years 1930 1910 1920 1940 1950 1960 1890 1900 WILLETS PT., N.Y. NEW YORK, N.Y. HEIGHT, cm SANDY HOOK, N.J. 20 ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. 15 SCALE, cm ANNAPOLIS, MD. BALTIMORE, MD. Figure 2.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations from New York to Maryland. TIME, years 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 WASHINGTON, D.C. SOLOMONS, MD. HAMPTON ROADS, VA. 20 HEIGHT, cm SCALE, cm 5 PORTSMOUTH, VA. CHARLESTON, S.C. FORT PULASKI, GA. Figure 3,--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations from the District of Columbia to Georgia. TIME, years 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1910 1920 FERNANDINA, FLA. MAYPORT, FLA. HEIGHT, cm 20 MIAMI BEACH, FLA. 15 KEY WEST, FLA. SCALE, cm 5 CEDAR KEY, FLA. PENSACOLA, FLA. Figure 4.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations in Florida. 10 TIME, years 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 20 EUGENE I., LA. SCALE, cm HEIGHT, cm GALVESTON, TEX. SAN DIEGO, CALIF. Figure 5.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations from Louisiana to California. TIME, years 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 LA JOLLA, CALIF. LOS ANGELES, CALIF. - ALAMEDA, CALIF. 15 SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. 10 i) 0 CRESCENT CITY, CALIF. Figure 6.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations in California. 1950 1960 1970 HEIGHT, cm SCALE, cm 2 TIME, years 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Fi pecenmeet aed pon GORA RENAE MPTGR POUT ooaaE vse fotaeen I ectaeegRnges D aeeoenyrer Tso D eae pa ree | eee fee 20 ASTORIA, OREG. SCALE, cm SEATTLE, WASH. NEAH BAY, WASH. FRIDAY HARBOR, WASH. 5. HEIGH?, cm KETCHIKAN, AK. Figure 7.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations from Oregon to Alaska. 13 TIME, years 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 SITKA, AK. HEIGHT, cm 20 JUNEAU, AK. 15 SCALE, cm SKAGWAY, AK. Figure 8.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for stations in Alaska. 14 TIME, years 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 YAKUTAT, AK. 20 15 = SS 5 = uit 10 ia Ss wn 5 0 HONOLULU, HI. CRISTOBOL, C.Z. Figure 9.--Change in sea level with respect to adjacent land for Yakutat, Alaska, Honolulu, Hawaii, and Cristobal, C.Z. a Wi ¥ ws sc dnth NBs Aes