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Poster: dead-head_Monte Date: May 26, 2011 12:54pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: "slo-mo Rapture" & our GD Forum conversation

Some excellent comments and valuable feedback about our GD Forum conversation on "slo-mo Rapture" and survival on Planet Earth. A link between climate change and Joplin tornadoes? Never! By Bill McKibben, Published in The Washington Post on May 23, 2011 Caution: It is vitally important not to make connections. When you see pictures of rubble like this week’s shots from Joplin, Mo., you should not wonder: Is this somehow related to the tornado outbreak three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, Ala., or the enormous outbreak a couple of weeks before that (which, together, comprised the most active April for tornadoes in U.S. history). No, that doesn’t mean a thing. It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advisable to try to connect them in your mind with, say, the fires burning across Texas — fires that have burned more of America at this point this year than any wildfires have in previous years. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they’ve ever been — the drought is worse than that of the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if they’re somehow connected. If you did wonder, you see, you would also have to wonder about whether this year’s record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest — resulting in record flooding along the Mississippi — could somehow be related. And then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming, and to the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold air. It’s far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that’s the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don’t let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity — that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it’s just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. No, better to focus on the immediate casualties, watch the videotape from the store cameras as the shelves are blown over. Look at the news anchorman standing in his waders in the rising river as the water approaches his chest. (CNN's Anderson Cooper is the biggest whore in the News Business!) Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year drought in the past five years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the past decade — well, you might have to ask other questions. Such as: Should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal mining? Should Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sign a permit this summer allowing a huge new pipeline to carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta? You might also have to ask yourself: Do we have a bigger problem than $4-a-gallon gasoline? Better to join with the U.S. House of Representatives, which voted 240 to 184 this spring to defeat a resolution saying simply that “climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare.” Propose your own physics; ignore physics altogether. Just don’t start asking yourself whether there might be some relation among last year’s failed grain harvest from the Russian heat wave, and Queensland’s failed grain harvest from its record flood, and France’s and Germany’s current drought-related crop failures, and the death of the winter wheat crop in Texas, and the inability of Midwestern farmers to get corn planted in their sodden fields. Surely the record food prices are just freak outliers, not signs of anything systemic. It’s very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it’s reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there’s no need to worry because “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.” I’m pretty sure that’s what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today. Bill McKibben is founder of the global climate campaign 350.org and a distinguished scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont. • Consider re-reading the GD Forum's interesting discussion we had about Bill McKibben, climate change, and the 350 dot org web site on Oct 24, 2009. • World in the Balance, by Lester Brown • Bill McKibben interview on Democracy Now!, May 26, 2011

Fossil Fuel slo-mo Rapture
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This post was modified by dead-head_Monte on 2011-05-26 19:54:13

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Poster: splue Date: May 26, 2011 12:47pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

i find this discussion fascinating, thx 4 posting

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Poster: dark.starz Date: May 30, 2011 5:28pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

Heed caution when camping this spring-summer in the mountains. As you're aware the snowpack is at record levels and flash flooding is a reality in the Rocky Mountain Front Range. The Big Thompson River Canyon Flood July 31st - August 1st, 1976. http://www.assessment.ucar.edu/flood/flood_summaries/07_31_1976.html Extreme Fort Collins Flood July 28th, 1997 http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/~odie/rain.html Most people are unaware that: •80% of flood deaths occur in vehicles, and most happen when drivers make a single, fatal mistake trying to navigate through flood waters. •Just 6 inches of rapidly moving flood water can knock a person down. •A mere 2 feet of water can float a large vehicle even a bus. •One-third of flooded roads and bridges are so damaged by water that any vehicle trying to cross stands only a 50% chance of making it to the other side. •The Big Thompson Canyon Flood killed 140 people in 1976. It proved a tragic illustration of a sobering statistic 95% of those killed in a flash flood try to outrun the waters along their path rather than climbing rocks or going uphill to higher grounds. •Remember, it does not have to be raining for a flash flood to occur. Some of the most dangerous floods originate many miles away.
This post was modified by dark.starz on 2011-05-31 00:28:35

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Poster: dead-head_Monte Date: May 26, 2011 2:38pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

- I was flying over Denver in a Boeing 727 when the Big Thompson River Canyon Flood hit in 1976. It was a disaster on the ground there. No more planes were being allowed to land in Denver, and refueling aircraft was not happening. After circling over Denver for an hour or 2, we were low on fuel. We diverted to Cheyenne. I was stuck there for 12 hours with no money. I was trying to return to Louisville, KY, after doing a sound man gig with Bluegrass Alliance band in Jackson Hole, WY for 2 weeks. - Extreme Fort Collins Flood July 28th, 1997: I was just a few miles north of Fort Collins at this time, working as an electronics maintenance engineer at KGWN-TV in Cheyenne... working my butt off for our News Dept during that flood. I was making sure all the correct news packages, video feeds, live shots, and satellite uplinks were getting this story out.
This post was modified by dead-head_Monte on 2011-05-26 21:38:44

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Poster: dark.starz Date: May 26, 2011 1:38pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: We have yet to begin the 2011 Hurricane season.

Noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Klotzbach's team, formerly led by Gray, determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms of at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.

On December 8, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2011 season, predicting well above-average activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. As well, the team expected an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of approximately 165, citing that El Niño conditions were unlikely to develop by the start of the season. Lastly, the team noted a higher chance for storms to make landfall in the United States than in 2010.

In addition, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium that comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast a few days prior to that of CSU, with similar estimates for the year. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 40% above the 1950–2010 average, with 15.6 (±4.3) tropical storms, 8.4 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 4.0 (±1.7) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 141 (±58). On April 6, 2011, the CSU slightly revised their December forecast, predicting 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

On May 19, 2011, the Climate Prediction Center issued NOAA's outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season. The CPC expected that 12–18 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes would form in the Atlantic during 2011. The center cited above-normal sea surface temperatures, a weakening La Niña, and the effect of the warm regime of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation as the bases behind their forecast, adding that seasonal climate models hint that "activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995" could occur.