Global Warming Scare is Over

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report

July 2009

Volume 1 I Issue 7

SPPI

Sc lence 1 Public PoHcy I nsHuto

1 Christopher Monckton, EDITOR ♦ www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : July 2009

Accurate, Authoritative Analysis for Today's Policymakers

UN exaggerated warming 6-fold: the scare is over

SPPI's authoritative Monthly CO2 Report for July 2009 announces the publication of a major paper by Professor
Richard Lindzen of MIT, demonstrating by direct measurement that outgoing long-wave radiation is escaping to
space far faster than the UN predicts, showing that the UN has exaggerated global warming 6-fold. Report, page 3.

•^ Lindzen's paper on outgoing long-wave radiation shows the "global warming" scare is over. Thanks to recent peer-
reviewed papers that have not been mentioned in the mainstream news media, we now know that the effect of CO2 on
temperature is small, we know why it is small, and we know that it is having very little effect on the climate. Page 3.

^ The IPCC assumes CO2 concentration will reach 836 ppmv by 2100, but, for almost eight years, CO2 concentration has
headed straight for only 570 ppmv by 2100. This alone halves all of the IPCC's temperature projections. Pages 5-6.

•t Since 1980 temperature has risen at only 2.5 °F (1.5 °C)/century, not the 7 F° (3.9 C°) the IPCC imagines. Pages 7-9.

4t Sea level rose just 8 inches in the 20*** century and has been rising at just 1 ft/century since 1993. Sea level has scarcely risen
since 2006. Also, Pacific atolls are not being drowned by the sea, as some have suggested. Pages 10-12.

4- Arctic sea-ice extent is about the same as it has been at this time of year in the past decade. In the Antarctic, sea ice extent - on
a 30-year rising trend - reached a record high in 2007. Global sea ice extent shows little trend for 30 years. Pages 13-15.

4- Hurricane and tropical-cyclone activity is at its lowest since satellite measurement began. Page 16.

4 Solar activity has declined again, after a large sunspot earlier in the month. The Sun is still very quiet. Pages 17-18.

4 The (very few) benefits and the (very large) costs of the Waxman/Markey Bill are illustrated at Pages 19-21.

4 Science Focus this month studies the effect of the Sun on the formation of clouds. IT'S THE SUN, STUPID! Pages 22-23.

^ As always, there's our "global warming" ready reckoner, and our monthly selection of scientific papers. Pages 24-27.

4- And finally, a Technical Note explains how we compile our state-of-the-art CO2 and temperature graphs. Page 28.

Editorial : : The science is in. the scare is out

Recent papers and data give a complete picture of why the UN is v^rRONG

No LONGER can it be credibly argued that "global
warming" is worse than previously thought. No longer can
it be argued that "global warming" was, is, or will be any
sort of global crisis. Recent papers in the peer-reviewed literature,
combined with streams of data from satellites and thermometers,
now provide a complete picture of why it is that the UN's climate
panel, the worldwide political class, and other "global warming"
profiteers are wrong in their assumption that the enterprises of
humankind will disastrously warm the Earth.

The global surface temperature record, which we update and publish
every month, has shown no statistically-significant "global warming"
for almost 15 years. Statistically-significant global cooling has now
persisted for very nearly eight years. Even a strong el Nino - expected
in the coming months - will be unlikely to reverse the cooling trend.

More significantly, the ARGO bathythermographs deployed
throughout the world's oceans since 2003 show that the top 400
fathoms of the oceans, where it is agreed between all parties that at
least 80% of all heat caused by manmade "global warming" must
accumulate, have been cooling over the past six years. That now-
prolonged ocean cooling is fatal to the "official" theory that "global
warming" will happen on anything other than a minute scale.

Not only in the oceans but also in the tropical upper atmosphere, real-
world measurements are showing up the scaremongers' computer
models as useless. All of the models predict that at altitude in the
tropics "global warming" should have happened at thrice the surface
rate. But half a century of measurement has shown that that warming
has not happened either. That, too, is fatal to the "official" notion.

A recent study by Paltridge et al. tells us why the tropical upper
troposphere is not warming at thrice the surface rate. The modelers
had told their X-Box 360s to predict that "hot-spot" because the
Clausius-Clapeyron relation - one of the very few proven results in
climatology - mandates that the space occupied by the warming
atmosphere will carry near-exponentially more water vapor, which, by
its sheer quantity in the atmosphere, is many times more significant
than CO2 as a greenhouse gas.

However, Dr. Paltridge 's paper demonstrates that subsidence drying
carries the additional moisture down to lower altitudes where the
water vapor has less effect because its absorption bands are already
saturated there. Subsidence drying allows far more outgoing long-
wave radiation to escape unimpeded to space than the models predict:
obsessed with radiative transports in the atmosphere, they tend to
undervalue non-radiative transports such as subsidence drying.

We not only know why the outgoing radiation is not being trapped as
predicted - we now know that it is not being trapped. Professor
Richard Lindzen of MIT has just published a paper - arguably the
most important ever to be published on "global warming" - that plots
real-world changes in outgoing long-wave radiation, as measured by
the ERBE satellite system, against real-world changes in global mean
surface temperature. See the startling graph on page 4.

Observed reality is entirely different from what 11 of the UN's
models predict. Instead of 6 F warming in response to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 concentration, only 1 F can be expected, because
nearly all the radiation that should be trapped in the atmosphere is
escaping to space. The scare is truly over. Monckton of Brenchley

Featured : : The End of the Climate Scare

Professor Lindzen proves the effect of C02 on temperature is small

Outgoing long-wave radiation is not being trapped as predicted

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Observed reality vs. erroneous
computer predictions: Scatter-plots
of net flux of outgoing long-wave
radiation, as measured by the
satellites of the Earth Radiation
Budget Experiment over a 15-year
period (upper left panel) and as
predicted by 11 of the computer
models relied upon by the UN (all
other panels), against anomalies in
global mean sea surface temper-
ature over the period.

The mismatch between reality and
prediction is entirely clear. It is this
astonishing graph that provides the
final evidence that the UN has
absurdly exaggerated the effect not
only of CO2 but of all greenhouse
gases on global mean surface
temperature.

What it means: If the atmospheric
CO2 concentration doubles, global
temperature will rise not by the 6 F
imagined by the UN's climate
panel, but by a harmless 1 F.

Source: Lindzen & Choi (2009).

CO2 concentration is rising, but the rate of increase is slowing

www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org

CO2 is rising in a straight line, well below the IPCC 's projected range (pale blue region). The deseasonalized real-world data are shown as a thick, dark-
blue line overlaid on the least-squares linear-regression trend. There is no sign of the exponential groM'th the IPCC predicts. Despite rapidly-rising CO 2
emissions, the rate of increase in C02 concentration has slowed from 204 ppmv/century in January 2009 to 202 ppmv/century now. Data source: NOAA.

IPCC predicts rapid, exponential CO2 growth that is not occurring

www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org

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Global monthly C02 anomalies, January 2000 to July 2100
IPCC predicts trend at +362, +468, +652 ppmv/century
The observed trend is equivalent to +204 ppmv/century

Observed C02 growth is linear, and is also M'ell beloM' the exponential- groM'th curves (bounding the pale blue region) predicted by the IPCC in its 2007
report. IfC02 continues on its present path, the IPCC 's central temperature projection for the year 2100 must be halved. Data source: NOAA.

The 29-year global warming trend is just 2.5 °F (1.5 °C) per century

www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org

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Global monthly temperature anomalies, January 1980 to June 2009
IPCC predicts warming at +2.4, +3, +3.9, +4.7, +5.3 C/century
The observed warming trend is equivalent to 1.5 C/century

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Global temperature for the past 29 full years has been undershooting the IPCC 's currently-predicted warming rates (pink region). The warming trend (thick
red line) has been rising at well below half of the IPCC 's central estimate. Data source: SPPI index, compiled from HadCRUtS, RSS, and UAH.

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a decade and a half with no statistically-significant warming

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Global monthly temperature anomalies, January 1995 to June 2009
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The observed warming trend is equivalent to .9 C/century

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Since the beginning of 1995, there has been no statistically-significant "global warming". The warming over this period would only be
significant if the temperature at the end of the period were high enough to be clear of the "error-bars " (not shown in this graph) that reflect the
uncertainty in measuring global mean surface temperature accurate. Source: SPPI global temperature index.

Seven and a half years' global cooling at 4.3 F

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Global monthly temperature anomalies, January 2002 to June 2009
IPCC predicts warming at +2.4, +3, +3.9, +4.7, +5.3 C/century
The observed cooling trend is equivalent to 2.4 C/century

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For seven and a half years, global temperatures have been falling rapidly. The IPCC 's predicted warming path (pink region) bears no relation to the global
cooling that has been observed in the 21" century to date. Source: SP PI global temperature index.

Sea level has not risen significantly in the past four years

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Sea level is scarcely rising: The average rise in sea level (mm/yr) over the past 10,000 years was 4 feet/ century. During the lO"' century it was 8 inches. In
the past four years, sea level has scarcely risen at all. As recently as 2001, the IPCC had predicted that sea level might rise as much as 3 ft in the IT' century.
However, this maximum M'as cut by more than one-third to less than 2 feet in the IPCC 's 2007 report. Moerner (2004) says sea level will rise about 8 inches
in the 21"^ century. Mr. Justice Burton, in the UK High Court, bluntly commented on Al Gore 's predicted 20ft sea-level rise as follows: "The Armageddon
scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view. " A fortiori, James Hansen 's prediction of a 246ft sea-level rise is mere rodomontade. Sea-level
rise since the beginning of 2006 has been negligible. Source: University of Colorado, 2009, release 3.

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Pacific atolls are not at risk: Though it has often been said that Pacific coral atolls are liable to be flooded by rising sea level, the rate of rise is small and
steady, as shown in this island-by-island graph from the Australian Government. For each island, the trend settles after a few years ' recording.

11

Hard evidence disproves theory: the ocean is not warming

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The 3300 Argo bathythermograph buoys deployed throughout the world's oceans since late in 2003 have shown a slight cooling of the oceans
over the past five years, directly contrary to the official theory that any "global warming" not showing in the atmosphere would definitely show
up in the first 400 fathoms of the world's oceans, where at least 80% of any surplus heat would be stored. Source: ARGO project, June 2009.

12

Arctic sea-ice extent remains within the 10-year normal range

Jan

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Arctic sea ice extent (milUons of square kilometers: left scale): The red curve shows that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic is now comfortably within the
range that has been normal over the past decade. In 2005, 2007, and 2008, sea-ice extent during the September Imv season M>as beloM> the 30-year minimum.
HoM'ever, the presence of more multi-year ice this year may prevent sea ice from declining as far this year. Arctic summer sea ice covered its least extent in
30 years during the late summer of 2007. However, NASA has attributed that sudden decline to unusual poleward movements of heat transported by currents
and M'inds: the Arctic climate has long been knoMm to be volatile. The decline cannot have been caused by "global M'arming", because, as the SPPI Global
Temperature Index shoM>s, there has been a rapid cooling globally during the past seven and a half years - a cooling that applies to the oceans as M>ell as to
the atmosphere. At almost the same moment as summer sea-ice extent reached its 30-year minimum in the Arctic, sea-ice extent in the Antarctic reached its
30-year maximum, though the latter event was very much less widely reported in the media than the former. Source: lARC JAXA, Japan, July 2009.

13

Antarctic sea-ice extent has been rising gently for 30 years

Antarctic sea-ice extent (anomaly from 1979-2000 mean, millions ofkm^: left scale) shows a gentle hut definite uptrend over the past 30 years. The peak
extent, M>hich occurred late in 2007, foUmved shortly after the decline in Arctic sea ice in late summer that year. Source: University of Illinois, July 2009.

14

The regular "heartbeat" of global sea-ice extent: steady for 30 years

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daily global sea ice anomaly
daily sea ice area

daily sea ice mean: 1979-2000

Global Sea Ice Area

1979 -present

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Planetary cardiogram showing global sea-ice area (millions of square kilometers): There has been a very slight decline in the trend (red) of global sea-ice
extent over the decades, chiefly attributable to loss of sea ice in the Arctic during the summer, M>hich was M>ell beloM' the mean in 2007, M'ith some recovery in
2008. However, the 2008 peak sea-ice extent was exactly on the 1979-2000 mean, and current sea-ice extent is a fraction beloM> the 1979-2000 mean. The
decline in summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic, reflected in the global sea-ice anomalies over most of the past eight years, runs counter to the pronounced
global atmospheric cooling trend over the same period, suggesting that the cause of the regional sea-ice loss cannot have been "global M>arming". Seabed
volcanic activity recently reported in the Greenland/Iceland gap, with seabed temperatures of up to 574 °F, may have contributed to the loss of Arctic sea-ice.
Source: University of Illinois, July 2009.

15

Hurricane activity is at its lowest since satellite monitoring began

2200 T

TC Accumulated Cyclone Energy "i m-, RyanN.Maue

24-month running sums

2000 -- -

1800

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JTWC+f^HC Besi/Ope rational Tracks

Updated through juty 31. 20Q9

600

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Northern Hemisphere

— I r 1 1 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 1 1 r r 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r r r 1 —

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

"'Urricanes 'ardly hever 'appen", as Eliza Doolittle sang in "My Fair Lady". Hurricanes, typhoons, and other tropical cyclones have declined recently.
Global activity of intense tropical storms is measured using a two-year running sum, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, now standing at almost its least
value in 30 years in the Northern Hemisphere, and also globally. Hie graph shoM>s the 24-month running sum of tropical-cyclone energy for the entire globe
(top) and the Northern Hemisphere only (green). Hie difference between the two time series is the Southern Hemisphere total. Data are shoM>n from June
1979 to May 2009. Intensity estimates of southern-hemisphere cyclones are often missing before the start-date of the graph. Source: RyanMaue, July 2009.

16

A super-sunspot, then nearly a month without any sunspots

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Upper panel: Sunspot numbers (red), 15 March to 8 June 2009. Sunspot activity has been less than for 100 years. Lower panel: Number of days without any
visible sunspots during the previous solar minimum (blue) and the present solar minimum (red). During the last ~ll-year solar minimum, in
September/October 2006, the longest period without sunspots M'as 37 days, compared with 44 days in March/April 2009. Source: Jan Alvestad, April 2009.

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Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct

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17

Is the Sun's three-year slumber about to come to an end?

40

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This colorful helioseismic map of the solar interior shows solar jet-streams as angled red-yellow bands. Black contours denote sunspot activity.
When the jet streams reach a critical latitude around 22 degrees (see left scale), sunspot activity intensifies. The previous solar minimum lasted
two years. The present solar minimum has already lasted almost three years, and - as our temperature graphs show - global cooling has
resulted, suggesting that the Earth 's climate may be more sensitive to very small changes in solar output than is currently admitted. See our
special feature on how the Sun influences clouds, later in this Report. Source: National Solar Observatory, Tucson, Arizona, June 2009.

18

Why 'Taxman/Malarkey' won't change the global climate one iota

BREAKTHROUGH Cumulative 2012-2030 U.S. GHG Emissions Under

■»^"'"'< the American Clean Energy and Security Act (HR 24S4)

www.THEBREAKTHR'DUQH,a4S
160,000

140,000

(Million Tons C02-e)

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Business as Usual Economy Wide Economy Wide Economy Wide Business as Usual Emissions in Capped Emissions in Capped

Economy Wide Emissions With Cap Emissions With Cap Emissions With Cap Emissions in Capped Sectors with No Sectors with Full

Emissions and No International and 1 billion and 1.5 billion Sectors Offsets Utilized Offsets Utilized

Offsets Utilzied International Offsets International Offsets
Utilzied Utilzied

A pointless Bill: The Waxman/Markey Bill M'ill cost billions to implement, but mhU reduce US carbon emissions hardly at all, unless the numerous
exceptions in the Bill are implemented, in which event it will not reduce US carbon emissions at all. Source: www, breakthrough. org .

19

The Waxman/Markey Climate Bill will scarcely affect temperatures

3.5

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2100

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Temperature change predicted by the UN, and (dotted line) adjusted to reflect the negligible impact of the Waxman/Markey Climate Bill, M>hich might
cut temperatures by 0.2-0.02 F by 2100, at a cost of $18 trillion. Source: Chip Knappenberger: cost estimates $180 bn/yearfrom the White House.

20

40

The Waxman/Markey Climate Bill will scarcely affect sea level

35 '

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20

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Waxman-Markey

15 -

10

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2050

Sea Level Rise

savings'

1.1cm

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— Sea Level Rise
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TIM I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I III

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Sea-level change predicted by the UN, and (dotted line) adjusted to reflect the negligible impact of the Waxman/Markey Climate Bill, which might cut
sea-level by less than half an in by 2100, at a cost of $18 trillion. Source: Chip Knappenberger: cost estimates $180 bn/yearfrom the White House.

21

SPPI MONTHLY CO2 REPORT : ! SCIENCE FOCUS

Spotlight on the changing science behind the changing climate

The Sun, not humankind, drives the climate

A paper by Danish researchers implies that the Sun has more influence over the climate than the UN admits

Billions of tonnes of water droplets vanish from the
atmosphere in events that reveal in detail how the Sun
and the stars control our everyday clouds. Svensmark
et ah, in a recent paper, analysed the consequences of
eruptions on the Sun that screen the Earth from
cosmic rays - energetic particles that reach the Earth
from exploding stars. Their research will have a
substantial impact on the debate about whether
humankind has any significant effect on the global
climate.

When solar explosions interfere with cosmic rays, there is a
temporary shortage of small aerosols, chemical specks in the air
that normally grow until water vapour can condense on them,
seeding the liquid water droplets of low-level clouds. Because of
the shortage, clouds over the ocean can lose as much as 7 per
cent of their liquid water within seven or eight days of the
cosmic-ray minimum.

The paper concludes that "a link between the Sun, cosmic rays,
aerosols, and liquid-water clouds appears to exist on a global
scale". Svensmark's latest result provides powerful confirmation
of more than a decade of research by him and his team at the
Danish National Space Institute, pointing to a key role for
cosmic rays in climate change. In particular, it connects
observable variations in the world's cloudiness to laboratory

experiments in Copenhagen showing how cosmic rays help to
form the aerosols that form the nuclei of clouds. Other
investigators had reported difficulty in finding significant
effects of the solar eruptions on clouds.

The Danish researchers studied Forbush decreases, sudden
declines in the cosmic-ray count in the Earth's atmosphere
count of cosmic rays. Their earlier research had predicted that
the effects should be most noticeable in the lowest 3000 metres
of the atmosphere. The team identified 26 Forbush decreases
since 1987 that had caused substantial reductions in low-
altitude cosmic rays, and looked for the consequences.

They found that the shortage of cosmic rays causes a subtle
change in the color of sunlight, as seen by the ground stations of
the aerosol robotic network AERONET. By analysing data
during and after the reductions in cosmic rays, they found that
violet light from the Sun looked brighter than usual. A shortage
of small aerosols, which normally scatter violet light as it passes
through the air, was the most likely reason. The colour change
was greatest about five days after the cosmic-ray counts had
fallen to their minimum.

This five-day delay occurs because the immediate action of
cosmic rays, seen in laboratory experiments, creates micro-
clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules that are too small
to affect the AERONET observations. Only when the clusters

22

have grown for a few days will they be large enough to be
detectable, or else to be noticeable by their absence. The
evidence from the aftermath of the Forbush decreases, as
scrutinized by Svensmark and his team, gives aerosol experts
valuable information about the formation and fate of small
aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere.

After five days, the growing aerosols would be capable of
affecting sunlight, but would not yet be large enough to collect
water droplets. The full impact on clouds only becomes evident
two or three days later. It takes the form of a loss of low- altitude
clouds, because of the earlier loss of small aerosols that would
normally have grown into cloud condensation nuclei capable of
seeding the clouds. Three independent sets of satellite
observations all confirmed the disappearance of clouds about a
week after the cosmic- ray minimum.

Averaging satellite data on the liquid-water content of clouds
over the oceans, for the five strongest Forbush decreases
between 2001 and 2005, the researchers found a 7 per cent
decrease, equivalent to 3 billion tonnes of liquid water
disappearing from the atmosphere. The water remains there in
vapour form, but unlike cloud droplets it does not impede
radiant energy from the Sun. After the same five Forbush
decreases, satellites measuring the extent of liquid- water clouds
revealed an average reduction of 4 per cent. Other satellites
showed a 5 per cent reduction in clouds below 3200 metres
over the ocean.

Svensmark has commented: "The effect of the solar explosions
on the Earth's cloudiness is huge. A cloud loss of 4 or 5 per cent
may not sound very much, but it briefly increases the sunlight
reaching the oceans by about 2 Watts per square meter,
equivalent to all the 'global warming' during the 20th Century."

Forbush decreases are too short-lived to have a lasting effect on
the climate, but they dramatically illustrate the mechanism that

operates during the 11-year solar cycle. When the Sun becomes
more active, the decline in low-altitude cosmic radiation is
greater than that seen in most Forbush events, and the loss of
low cloud cover persists for long enough to warm the world.
Svensmark's paper concludes that this explains the alternations
of warming and cooling seen in the lower atmosphere and in the
oceans during solar cycles.

The director of the Danish National Space Institute, Eigil Friis-
Christensen, who co-authored a paper on the effect of cosmic
rays on cloud cover with Svensmark in 1996, says: "The
evidence has accumulated, first for the link between cosmic rays
and low-level clouds and then, by experiment and observation,
for the mechanism involving aerosols. All these consistent
scientific results illustrate that the current climate models used
to predict future climate are failing to incorporate important
elements of the physics".

Forbush decreases take their name from the American physicist
Scott E. Forbush, who first noticed them more than 70 years
ago. Nowadays they are known to be the result of ejections of
magnetized gas from the Sun that pass near the Earth and
sweep aside some of the incoming cosmic rays. The team
analysed dozens of Forbush decreases since 1987. They used
data from 146 stations that count cosmic-ray neutrons, and
from a multi-directional telescope in Japan that observes
muons, the most important cosmic-ray particles near the
Earth's surface. Each solar outburst altered the pattern of
cosmic-ray energies in a distinctive way, making it possible to
calculate cosmic-ray intensities in the lower atmosphere.

The significance of Svensmark's results is considerable. His
work establishes that very small changes in solar irradiance,
persisting over time, can cause substantial changes in global
mean surface temperature. The UN had assumed the Sun's
influence was negligible. The UN, it seems, was wrong.

23

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : Your Zone

How TO CALCULATE THE EFFECT OF C02 ON TEMPERATURE FOR YOURSELF

Your ^global-warming' ready reckoner

Here is a step-by-step, do-it-yourself ready-reckoner which will let you use a pocket calculator to make your own
instant estimate of global temperature change in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

■t STEP 1: Decide how far into the future you want your forecast to go, and estimate how much CO2 will be in the atmosphere at
that date. Example: Let us do a forecast to 2100. The MONTHLY CO2 REPORT charts show CO2 rising to C = 575 parts per
million by the end of the century, compared with B = 385 parts per million in late 2008.

4- STEP 2: Next, work out thQ proportionate increase CIB in CO2 concentration. In our example, CIS = 575/385 = 1.49.

1^ STEP 3: Take the natural logarithm \n{CIB) of the proportionate increase. If you have a scientific calculator, find the natural
logarithm directly using the "In" button. If not, look up the logarithm in the table below. In our example. In 1.49 = 0.40.

n

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

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1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

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0.10

0.14

0.18

0.22

0.26

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0.34

0.37

0.41

0.44

0.47

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0.53

0.56

0.59

0.62

0.64

0.67

0.69

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2.10

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2.20

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nk STEP 4: Choose a climate sensitivity coefficient c from the table below

' Coefficients...

SPPI minimum

SPPI central

SPPI maximum

IPCC minimum

IPCC central

IPCC maximum

... for C°

L 0.7

1.4

2.1

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1.25

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•t STEP 5: Find the temperature change AT hy multiplying the natural logarithm of the proportionate increase in CO2
concentration by your climate sensitivity coefficient. In our example, we'll chose the SPPI central estimate c = 2.50 F. Then -

AT = c\n{CIB) = 2.50x0.40 = 1.0 F °, your predicted manmade warming to 2100. It's as simple as that!

24

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : New Science

BREAKING NEWS IN THE JOURNALS, FROM WWW.C02SC1ENCE.ORG

The Monthly CO2 Report summarizes key recent scientific papers, selected from those featured weekly at www.co2science.org, that significantly
add to our understanding of the climate question. This month we review papers about wind catastrophes, global drought, ocean acidification and
infectious diseases. Our final paper gives evidence that the Middle Ages were warmer than today.

Thirty-Second Summary

> Wind-caused catastrophes in the United States show "no upward or downward trend" since the 1950s.

> Global drought activity of the last half of the 20th century was greatest at the start of that period, when atmospheric CO2
concentrations and mean global temperatures were far less than they were at its end.

> The possibility cannot be rejected that the modern rise in atmospheric CO2 has had no effect on the pH of the South China Sea.

> Although the globe is "significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already
favored infectious diseases."

> 718 scientists from 420 institutions in 41 countries on the co2science.org Medieval Warm Period database say the Middle Ages
were warmer than today.

Wind-Caused Catastrophes in the United States

> Changnon, S.A. 2009. Temporal and spatial distributions of wind storm damages in the United States. Climatic Change 94: 473-482.

Working with data from the insurance industry ~ which the U.S. National Academy of Sciences considers "the best of all forms of historical
storm loss data in the nation" ~ Changnon (2009) analyzed "catasfrophes caused solely by high winds" that had had their losses adjusted so as to
make them "comparable to current year [2006] values." Results indicated that although the average monetary loss of each year's catasfrophes
"had an upward linear frend over time, statistically significant at the 2% level," when the number of each year's catasfrophes was considered, it
was found that "low values occurred in the early years (1952-1966) and in later years (1977-2006)," while "the peak of incidences came during
1977-1991." Thus, it was not surprising, as Changnon describes it, that "the fit of a linear trend to the annual [catastrophe number] data
showed no upward or downward trend." Given these findings, whereas climate alarmists contend that storms with exfremely destructive
winds become more frequent as the world warms, this impressive set of real-world data indicates that such is not the case in the United States.

25

Global Droughts of the Last Half of the 20th Century

> Sheffield, J., Andreadis, K.M., Wood, E.F. and Lettenmaier, D.P. 2009. Global and continental drought in the second half of the twentieth century: severity-area-
duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events. Journal of Climate 22: 1962-1981.

>

Sheffield et al. (2009) note that drought is "among the costliest and most widespread of natural disasters," and that it is "generally driven by
extremes in the natural variation of climate . . . modulated by external forcings such as variations in solar input and atmospheric composition,
either natural or anthropogenic." Using "observation-driven simulations of global terrestrial hydrology and a cluster algorithm that searches for
spatially connected regions of soil moisture," the authors "identified 296 large scale drought events (greater than 500,000 km and longer than 3
months) globally for 1950-2000." Results indicated that "the mid-1950s showed the highest drought activity and the mid-1970s to mid-1980s
the lowest activity." Given these results, if anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the global warming they are supposed to produce are responsible
for catastrophic droughts, as the U.S. Enviroimiental Protection Agency has recently declared them to be, it seems strange indeed that the global
drought activity of the last half of the 20th century was greatest at the start of that period, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations and
mean global temperatures were far less than they were at its end. Thus, the supposed twin evils of the radical environmentalist movement are
not in any way responsible for the temporal variation of extreme drought activity over the last half of the 20th century.

Reconstructing Seawater pH in the South China Sea

> Liu, Y., Liu, W., Peng, Z., Xiao, Y., Wei, G., Sun, W., He, J. Liu, G. and Chou, C.-L. 2009. Instability of seawater pH in the South China Sea during the mid-late
Holocene: Evidence from boron isotopic composition of corals. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 73: 1264-1272.

There is much concern that the current and ongoing rise in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration is leading to a significant decrease in the pH of
the world's oceans, in response to the ocean's absorption of a large fraction of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year. Already, it has
been estimated, for example, that global seawater has been acidified by 0.1 pH units relative to pre-industrial times, and model calculations
predict an additional 0.7 unit drop by the year 2300 (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003), which decline is hypothesized to cause great harm to marine
life, especially calcifying organisms such as corals. But how valid are such claims? Has the 100 ppm rise, or 36% increase, in atmospheric CO2
concentrations truly reduced oceanic pH since pre-industrial times as the models say it has? What role does natural variability play? An
intriguing new study sheds some revealing light on such questions.

Noting that "seawater pH records that exceed a single decade are not yet available which [time period] is too short to distinguish anthropogenic
and natural external forcing and fully understand natural variability of the ocean pH," Liu et al. analyzed the boron isotopic composition (5 B)
of fossil corals in an effort to reconstruct a Holocene history of sea surface pH variations for the South China Sea. Results indicate that the 5 B-
derived pH values for the South China Sea fluctuated between a pH of 7.91 and 8.29 during the past seven thousand years, revealing a large
natural fluctuation in this parameter that is nearly ^wr times the 0. 1 pH unit decline the acidification alarmists predict should have occurred since
pre-industrial times. Given these results, one cannot reject the possibility that the modern rise in atmospheric CO2 has had no effect on the
pH of the South China Sea.

26

Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

> Lafferty, K.D. 2009. The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases. Ecology 90: 888-900.

The "conventional wisdom," in the words of Lafferty (2009), "is that global climate change will result in an expansion of tropical diseases,
particularly vector-transmitted diseases, throughout temperate areas," examples of which include "schistosomiasis (bilharzia or snail fever),
onchocerciasis (river blindness), dengue fever, lymphatic filariasis (elephantiasis), African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), leishmaniasis,
American trypanosomiasis (Chagas disease), yellow fever, and many less common mosquito and tick-transmitted diseases of humans," as well as
many diseases of "nonhuman hosts." After reviewing the scientific literature, however, the U.S. goverimient researcher concludes that "while
climate has affected and will continue to affect habitat suitability for infectious diseases, climate change seems more likely to shift than to
expand the geographic ranges of infectious diseases," and that "many other factors affect the distribution of infectious disease, dampening the
proposed role of climate." In fact, he concludes that "shifts in climate suitability might actually reduce the geographic distribution of some
infectious diseases." And of perhaps even greater import (because it is a real-world observation), he reports that "although the globe is
significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases." So,
will global warming lead to dramatic increases in the incidence of various infectious diseases, as climate alarmists claim it will? Lafferty's
review of pertinent biological phenomena suggests that it need not do so, while his review of real-world observations suggests that it has not
done so. Hence, in all likelihood, it probably will not do so.

The Middle Ages were warmer than today: Pescadero Basin, Gulf of California, Mexico

> Barron, J.A. and Bukry, D. 2007. Solar forcing of Gulf of California climate during the past 2000 yr suggested by diatoms and silicoflage Hates. Marine
Micropaleontology 62: 115-139.

Barron and Bukry (2007) developed high-resolution records of diatoms and
silicoflagellate assemblages spanning the past 2000 years from analyses of
a sediment core extracted from Pescadero Basin in the Gulf of California
(24°16.78'N, 108°11.65W). Resufts indicated that the relative abundance
of Azpeitia nodulifera (a tropical diatom whose presence suggests the
occurrence of higher sea surface temperatures), was found to be far
greater during the Medieval Warm Period than at any other time over
the 2000-year period studied, while during the Modem Warm Period its
relative abundance was actually lower than the 2000-year mean.

40

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27

TECHNICAL :: How WE COMPILE OUR GRAPHS

How WE DEMONSTRATE THAT "GLOBAL. WARMING" IS NOT "GETTING WORSE"

Letting the real-world data speak out

BEFORE we began producing the Monthly CO2 Reports, it
was easy for "global warming" profiteers to pretend, and
repeatedly to state, that "global warming" is "getting worse",
and that the climate is changing "faster than expected". Now they
are unable to get away with such falsehoods as easily as before.

The centerpieces of our monthly series of graphs showing what is
happening in the real world are our CO2 and temperature graphs,
now regarded as the definitive standard worldwide.

Our CO2 concentration graphs show changes in real-world CO2
concentration as measured by monitoring stations worldwide and
compiled by NOAA. We also calculate and display the least-squares
linear-regression trend on the real-world data. Because this trend has
been very close to a straight line since late 2001, it is the best guide
to fiiture CO2 concentration. We also display the range of UN
projections for CO2 concentration, based on its A2 "business as
usual" scenario - the one that comes closest to reality at present. The
one difference is that, for clarity, we zero the UN's projections to the
start-point of the linear regression trend on the real -world data.

The UN predicts that, this century, CO2 concentration will rise
exponentially - at an ever- increasing rate - towards 836 [730, 1020]
parts per million by volume in 2100. In reality, however, for eight
years CO2 concentration has been trending in a straight line towards
just 575 ppmv by 2100. If this linear trend continues, all of the
UN's predictions for 2 T^-century warming will have to be halved.

Our global-temperature graphs show changes in real-world
temperature at or near the Earth's surface. Each temperature graph
represents the mean of one surface and two satellite datasets: the
monthly surface temperature anomalies from the Hadley Center in
the UK, and the lower-froposphere anomalies from the satellites of
Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., and of the University of Alabama at
Huntsville. We do not use the NCDC/GISS datasets.

On each graph, the anomalies are zeroed to the least element in the
dataset. For clarity, the IPCC's range of predictions is zeroed to the
start-point of the least-squares linear-regression trend on the real-
world data. Since late 2001, global temperature has been falling fast.

To preserve consistency with the IPCC's published formulae for
evaluating climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 enrichment, the
IPCC's projections are evaluated directly from its projected
exponential growth in CO2 concenfration using the IPCC's own
logarithmic formula for equilibrium temperature change, yielding a
net-linear range of projections.

Equilibrium change - final temperature response when the climate
has settled down after an external perturbation - is greater than the
transient change predicted by the UN. However, on the A2 scenario
that we use, the difference by 2100 is just 0.5 C° (0.9 F°). Therefore,
when "global-warming" profiteers say warming "in the pipeline"
will go on for "thousands of years", 0.5 C° of additional warming is
all that they are talking about. Monckton of Brenchley

28