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Full text of "The First Global Revolution"

THE FIRST 



GLOBAL 



> REVOLUTION 



I A REPORT BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CLUB OF ROME 





ALEXANDER KINGC 



BERTRAND SCHNEIDER [ 



G^Jpyl;y^1T0d n>3k:iirJi 



THE FIRST 

GLOBAL 

REVOLUTION 

A Report by the Council of the Club of Rome 



ALEXANDER KING 
BERTRAND SCHNEIDER 




Orient Longman 



Contents 



T^V^kAtil^minhHi xUI 



1 



Part r. TTic ProbJcmatique 

!. AWhldwtndofChuiBC 7 

2, Sonw Arta^ of AcuK Concern J2 

1, The InwmaDonai Mlsnuiugcmcni of the World Economy 50 

4. [ntJiTutJons of Solidarity «l 

5. The VKuum 6S 

6. The Humdn Malai&c 76 

The Challenge 

Pan n. The Resolutiquc 

[nffoductton H 

7. The Three [mmedlaci« tS 
&. Governance and the Capacity to Govern IM 
9, Agents of the EteajlutiqiKr 1»1 
ID. Modvdtlons and Values le 

Lcainrng oui Way into a New Era 1J4 
A Call For Solidarity. 



lndci Itf 



Copyrighted material 



Ah k)vel Could lh«j and I wl* lite conspire, 
roBraspihlssorry BctKHK of things enUre, 
would ftQt wfl ihiaw iX fo biti and iPih1( 
rerrculd EI filacer to the fiean'? desJrs? 

Edward ftoGeraM 

Ttv Ratoiyst ofOrmr Khjyyim 



Foreword 



196$ wjn the ytit of the Gicat Divide, [t m^rkrd Eh? zcnldi u well a the end 
of the long post war pcfiod of rapid economic growth In the Indu^rallwd 
counmes. Bui n wis also a ycir of social unresl. wi^h the eruption of smdent 
uprising in many counnies and other manifestations of dlirnanon and 
Gaunter cultunl protest. En addition. IT was at that time that general and voul 
pubhcawuenessof the problems of the enviionment began lo emcrger 

A number of individuals dose to decisionmaking points becafnc 
concerned jboui die appaieni mc^pabiliiy of govemmencs dnd die 
IntesmtKmaJ OTganlations of foreseeing, or even aoemptlng eo Ebrc$ee, cbc 
consequences of SLibs-tannal material grow^ withoi^t sufficient thought as to 
the quality aspects cj the lite that unprcccdcmcd general afflueiKc should 
make possible it was fell ihat a group of tndependeni ihmkers fonteriwd 
with the long lermandde^^r issues would be useful m complementing the 
woikof^die bigger organlTadcins. 

The Club of Rome tookshape that year from ihcse«msTderattons, and was 
touodedby AurelioPecceL and Alexander King at the Academ La del LmceiJn 
Rome. It chose as its Inidal dicme. 'The Pcedkamenr of Mankind ' Autdio 
Peccel wu Its first president, a post be retained nil his deadi In 19S4. At 
pre&ent, the group comprises one hundred independent individuals from 
fiftf diree countiles. The Club ha absolutely no polttlcaL ambttkm. Its 
mcmbcts teprcsenr a wide dlverBlcyrf cuWes, Ideulogle*, iHcJcHlons a«l 

dhcipline^p and 3ie united Inicommonconceni for [he fuiuK of humuilcy. 

From die outset, the Club s ihinklog has been governed by three related 
conceptual guidelines: 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irrateriaal 



viii • Fortwoni 

— adopting a gTobs! approach lo the vast and compler prob^tmsof j worfd, 
in which inrcrdcpcndcncc beiwccn wtiom wiihin a single pbncury 

— focussing on issues, pfJldcsandopdonsinalongcrtcrni pecspcfilvc than 

Is possible (or govemmenb, which respond to the Immediaic concctni of 

an IftwfBdeflcly Irtiormed consOtiiency; 
— &ecktng i deeper undeisondlng of the Lni:er^c[ions 4itbln ihe tangle of 

contcmporajy problems - pollticj], economic, soda], culoiial, 

psychological, redinologicil and environmental - for whkdi die Club of 

Rome adopted ihe lerm 'ihe vjocid piablcmaTique', 

The woild problcmjiiquc hjs become, a^ n were, die [radcmark of the 
Club. We define It as die missive and unOdy mil of InietteJaied d|^ii]Ue5 
and ptoblems That fotm the predicament In which humanity ftnds toelf. For 
our present purposes we have coined a OTtrespoi>dlng icnn, the world 
resoludque', whjch connotes a coherent, onnpreftenslve and simuluneom 
atock to tcwlvc as tinny a possible of the t^ivtTK clfmrnts of the 
pfoblcmadquc, 01 at lean to point out ways to ^oJutEcms and more effective 
snaiegles. By 'the rewlmkjiic' , we do not mggest a grand attack on the loialicy 
of the probleniacfque- Cue pnjpoat te rather a simultaneous a ruck on iu mam 
elements with, Ineverycase, taiefukonsiderattonof reciptocal impact from 
each of the others. Jn a woild in which pioblem- solving mitucive& ate 
tncreasingly immobilized by buteauciades, there is a growing role for flexibic 
2nd Itifbrmal groups mch as the Club of Etomc. 

Oui first puhlflcailDn, Tfa Lhttib Sa Cnuri. appeared In 1OT2 3^ i rcpoit to 
(radier than i^) the Club of Rome. The study, commissioned by the Club, wa& 
accomplished by an imematlon^l icam of professors and researchers at MlT 
u^g the system dynamics methodoiogy erf jay Fottcsta, This was a 
ploneeting atlempi to pioiect m interaction a number of quandflable 
cicmcntsof the probletnatiquc. The icpon and the toEEravcrsy rt gcEemed 
in^mediately gav« the Club of Rome wotldwjdc visibility or, ts $omc would 
jav, notoriety. It cheicby achieved Its main objective: thesnmulatlonofagreat 
debate on growth and sodety tluougbout the world and an in^ieased 
awareness of the InreracQom thac ake place between the elements of the 
fffoblematique. The report has sold some ten million copies in over dUrty 
languages and has had consldeiable political impact. The Club was widely 
oidclzed foi what was ^en as advocacy of a zero growth economy. This was 
neverounntenDon. We fully accepted the pte^smg needfoi m^tetjal groitth 
in the poor countries of the world, but warned readeis about the 
consequences of an unthinking pursuit of growih by the indusolaJlzed 
countries, depletion of the world resource base, deterioration of the 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



Fotrwrd • ix 

environment, and ihe domtnation cJ mawrtsl valun 3n society. 

Since 1972, die Club hds published eighteen reports on 3 wide varieiy of 
loues (sec Kb^iogTjf^y), The second dmangthcBCrM4>iibiiiJtUiruTirpnj"gP0liit 
by prokuon Festel and Mcsan>vlc, wasi compULntsed grawih model which 
jlso look teglcnu] slcaabcms ItKo Accoum, It included jsLrongwarnrng of the 
high costs in terms of money and human sufTeTing whtch would r«ul! from 
delays In laklng acdon. 

Two decided bter. the contempoiaty pIobTr^tnattque icirulns die ame in 
JtsundetlyirLgcaus?^ as ttiat of 1971» but diHcis In ICE mix of Issues and tis pointy 
otcznphasls^ Humanity will ^dways hive to live with the problems of Its tJme, 
no matter how cffccOvc the i«oluc<iuc h^s bcai in the psst Changing 
jrtuadons.nowblylhoicanimghamlhrioluuonofpistprobicmipgivcrisclo 
new/ difficulties which, a? always. Interact, furthermore, in Gnvs of rapkd 
change such as the pieseni, the mix of problems ^ the understanding of 
theij relative importance is llkdy to change rapidly. This is p^rdy because 
some of QUI pcrccp<k)ns have become clearer ^nd partly because new 
knowledge has Identified new dangerSr Of course, the two most domtnanc 
elements are probably those of the population explosion In the South and of 
die onlyiecendy recognized mxioeffcctsofman on his cnvironn:Knc, which 
were exicdy the two central pteoccugatiun^ in Tfif Umili Nj CmiiA, Bui new 
factors, such as changes in human behavioui, the emergence of secmlngJy 
Irrational movements Including tcnorlsm, and the giowdi of Individual tnd 
collective selfishness, thrown up by our materialistic society, have definitely 
become elements of today's ptoblerrjcigue. Such matters jtc obviously 
relevant when considering the present situation. 

The human being both creates die problcmatEque and suffers ii3 
consequenccs^ The problemaiique therefore demands a systematic anal^ls 
ihar pays due attention not only to what is regarded as rational bchavtour , but 
dUo to JnniiKdvc and apparcndy InadonaL elements Itibcrcnc in human 
nattire that rnake for an uncertain world. 

If the Club IS to live up to Its tole, it Is cssenitial diat were examine the 
problemaoq-ue, attempt to elucidate more clearly some of Its interacdons, and 
Issue wamlE^gs abotil the consequences and trends determined by the 
persistence of present economic systems and hunun bch^vjour. With the 
possible exception of the nuclear threat, the present dangers to hum^ity are 
probably greater and mote Imminent than those in 1972. We shall, no doubt, 
be accused ^ before nf being hjrbinge r^ of doom . This may well be out lolc 
and our glory. However,piophesyingdoomisby no means our sole or even 
main Lniention. It is but a necessary prelude to taking action so as Co avoid the 
doom confronting the earth's inhabitants. T& Uib^B fc Gnm'rfi was never 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



intended w 3 p^o^hrxy. but aather u 3 wanring of what might haf^^o if 
poildes were noc changed ^In order lo prove its eiTiapohGom wroi^J A 
pre uencvc afi^oach SMdti a this oirjcs with & ihc rcspoHlbllilf of puEdng 
[onvaid suggested recnedlcs. 

Ricardo Did HochleitncT 
Prcs^dcnin CJub ol Roint 



Wo generation has ever llkFdl»propr»T^le«f of air those who polnr 
out [he conseqjerces of bad judvement and lack of Fomlghl. 

Th? Club of RorT« ^^n ake prld« li Th? fia rhii It hj; te?n iinpocHjUr 
Ax thtf bsT iwmiv yevSv i tat» K will mndnme For m^ny yf^n to 
COCK ro spell oui The unpafaubk fans md to ununle ^he ^Diisdence 
ol the siTUi dud Uie tfttheOc. 

Prince- PhiriPn Duke of Edlnbureh 

Meiisgp so the dek^^tes at site 

Tweniifth Amtvcrsary Confereine of the OubofRome, 



Wf uhriiJJ (i|iia% [|£c b I^n^ Pjulci^ Bijnk. ^ch^rd Carty nd Alexander 

Pckham /it rAnr^AdrpupT'^arMlirndfnfr^^nrifcaunifF, Soyo Graham ^Stiurt. Nicok 

Ro&cnsohnflii^Mdrin^lTTquidJ /«UTOF£n[runfi,dmf,niggrtrJo>fiffrrdirriiiig™ppffrt« 
i»n « Kabicnnt Eoii[on far far unm^q^ ^l)ni« dunn^ the cmpontion of Uia W. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal 



Abbreviations 



ASEAN AssociiEion of South Easi AsiJUk NaOons 

CFC chlorofluoroarbotiE 

CGIAR ComulQUvc Croup of Instituus of Agiiculiuial Et?&carch 

FAO Food and Agriculture OrgMiiation \of UN) 

HT Foundation lor Incec nation jI Tnlnlng 

GATT Cencial Agreement o^ TarifB and Trade 

HIV humin immuno deBckcncy vtrus 

llASA Iniernailanal Insticuie hi Applied Sysr^nif Analysis 

ILO Inlf rnalianal Labour Org^niz^Cion 

IMF InKinadOOal Moucury Fund 

IPT Irt^tnadonil Pumeiship [Diliaave 

Mil MasachuKtu Institute of Technobgy 

NGO non-governmenlil organiatkm 

MJC iKwIy lEtdusQlallzcd cuuntiy 

ODA oflldal developmcni did 

C^CD OrganlTatkin tor &ici»omlc CoopcraGon and Developmoit 

START SitjEpgic Anns Reduction Tilks 

lINijrAD Uniicd Hstlons Conference on Tr^de ^nd Development 

UNDP United Nations Devcbpmcm Programme 

UNEP Unlied NaUoru EnvtiunmenuJ Rrcigc^mnv 

Unc&CD United Nations Educationa]. ScienlifK: andCultunI OrganLsatum 

Unkcf United Naiiora {[nKmauonalf Children's (Emergency) Fund?. 

Unldo Uriltcd N^aons Indusaul Dcv^lopnnfni Orgjnizadon 

WHO World Hcjlrh Organization 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



THE WHEEL OF HUMANKIND 



Materitfa 



VALUES 

RELIGIONS 



Lumlng 
Systems 



'ices 
Agnculiure 
iT-idusiFfes 



GLOBAL 
ecONOwig GROWTH 



hiew Technologies 



GOVERNMEhfT 

ANDTHECAPACrrV 

TO GOVE RN 




MassMei]ja 



GLOBAL FOOD 
SECURrTY 



Wdr^r availability 



ENVIRONMENT 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Introduction 



Hum dukiEtd xzim ui be gripped by i fm it sak ^lu^udc of unt<::akiiy n ihc 
ihmhoidaf die nrw century, but the end of a inlllcDlum presents ^n even 
mote complex ^itudtioit w)ih its wide^nd and iipjd ch^ngn. ^nd the 
uncetialnry thit these changci brEng wkh them. 

Tbe icspjt of recent Club of Rome meetlngj has been "The Grcal 
Ttamldon'^ i«e ire convinced thdi we ue in die cjriy stages of the iormdUon 
of J new type of world vxiery which niH be at different from codaf'ip]»w« 
thai ushered in by the Industrial Revolution ftom the HXiCTy of dK kmg 

jgfjitarkpcriCHJduipEccdcdii Theimual but by no means d^ only mou» 
force of this change has beer die emergence of a c]uster of advanced 
technologies, espeajlly those made possible by mkroelfcnonks and the new 
discoivcrlcs of moJccuLi bkilogy. These ^re creating what \s vjrioiisly caLLrd 
die infoEZiutlon sodeiy. the posrlndusUlaJsodeiy, or d>e service sodeiy. In 
whJchcmpl[jymfntJlicayTttJndprD5pccD.nia[ctlaland other wise, Will be 
very different ftom those of today for every humaa being. 

We only need [o mention as examples of change the populadon e^rploslon 
in the Southern countriei. the probabiltly of great chjnges and distisrlunce in 
world climate, the prccariotH nature of global food secutny, doubts on energy 
aviildbiliiy dfl-d ihc v^^i thang;^ caking p\Kz m the geop^Jiu^dl ^Jtudugn -aJl 
of which Interact within the complex of the pioblcmatlquc. We aie 
convinced thattfie magnitude of these changes amount to a major revolution 

on i worldwide fcale. 

low and 1900 were year? when the course of hiitory suddenly speeded up: 
communist regimes In eastern Europe collapsed. East and Wcsi Germuiy 
became a single nanonjgain, the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in iWO provoked 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



2 • T/x first Ghhitl E^mlutien 

3 dttdly CrialJ Ia ih* Gulf. Though these were by no m-eaiis the only evenu d 
the periodH cbey ivcre b^ fai Ihc most specocular. jnd despite their 
geographic dl^^ts^H the^ were tDlaconncctcd, the end of the cold war and 
of East- West censloii blew the lid off (he world pte^urc cooker, as ii were, 
and enabled latent conflicts [o emerge tn the open and long- repressed 
isplnbons to c:iprr» ihcmselves Forcf tiilly. 

In ihc comlr^ ycs}. li Is very llkel? rhar ocbct cwcno will come to the 
fotcFront of world acccnrkm, while today's events will be pushed Inio the 
background. This book was wtlCicn bcfoic the collapse of the Soviei Union, 
and the creatton In Its place of a loose confederation oiindcpcndenc republics. 
The dun^Q ^11 Qkmg place ihcic do noE ilccr whit follows- Indeed, die? 
confirm our statement, made In euly 1991 , thjc die Gulf Wat Is the first 
example oS a series of phenomena that will jnost cenalnly affect the world 
profoundly In die coming decadn. 

The Gulf Wit was In many ways i warning signal atid should lead to a new 
vision of IntemaiiDna] tebOons. [[cofifitmed the exIsCCDce of tension, which 
will continue to grow between the rich counnles and the poor coudtila, 
bcTween die Non^ and the Souths while the Injusnice and humiTi^Elon ic 
bPMds is found ^petully JTid Incrrastngly imb«rabTe by (he Arab MasTlm 
countrteSr The war has also- been a demonstranon of a new anempt by die 
United States to reasserc itf hcgccnonji: pcc^n^rc In a number c^reglc^s of the 
world, whfle puidng its force at the service of right and legalism. The 
ambLgiiity of American policy, despite the faci that Jt hdS often shown proof of 
goodw[ll. IS not going to make die intcmadoc^ rclaOom of the United ^ics 
any easier in future, 

Thcendofthecold warhas led [□ the awakening of nadoia]Jsm,th^t had 
been sdfled under die lid of East- West tension, and wdl incvttably produce 
conflicts of varying degrees. However, it must be stressed that the process of 
disarmament that was undertaken between cbc United States and the Soviet 
Union tsa positive element- but nocsuffldendy so. Dtsarmameni in high-risk 
zones aiyj a strict control by the United Nadons of the sales of sophisticated 
arms have to be a priority if wc e:i^eci to ^veni otbct conftont^uoins , 3^ 
bloody and paradoxical as thoK in die Gulf War. 

Will the budding democrfcy in Benin, as ihai in the £asi European and Latin 
American connrrles grow strong and spread, or will Its failure to do so lead 
back to audioritarlan governments"' Wfll regimes tliat seem to be firmly 
fsabliihcd rod^y be able to stand up lo the pressure of population, the 
majoiny of the members of which are under twenty years of age and 
demznding a roof, a pb and the means to survive? No one knows. 

There ISh however, one indisputable fact: die world ecoiiomic 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Introduaion • 3 

dlscrepiDciu, thr flagrant incquallda. (be existence of eKirrme pcTvcrty 
sldc'byakk with great *«lth. cause all sofO of wniions and conflicis, 
sbowii^ up bete uid there in the mo5t diverse gcog[a[>hic Tonc^ These arc 
the $fgn9 that mark this Arst global TCVolutKtri and th?^ indiczEe Lhe 
uncertainty with which the hiturcof the pbnct a confronied. 

But why do we regard the canccmparary threais and thmgci a the firs 
global revolution' The change fcom the hufitrng and gatbermg [Jiase to one of 
wtiled farming miy have taken thouands of ycais to spread throughout the 
world. The Jndustilal Revolution that bcgjn in the United Kjngdom about 
twa centuries ago Ls as yet geographically incompleter However, the present 
biutil i^hzngcs arc ti]i;ing ptacc cvftywhftc §imul[ancously from causes 
which are likewise ubiquLio-us, thus c^usmg the Sturm und Drang' of a 
universal revolution. The worldwide signilicjnce ol this revolution becomes 
vastly greater If one considers diat Its misman^emcnc could cndaogei the 
whole human race- 

The new society i^ emetging from the chrysalis of the ofTcn aicfulc jnd 
decadent old societies: Its evolution Is complex and unceruin ^d its 
manlfesiatJons are diEficuit to decipher, making die task^ of the dedskm 
makers in both publk and private sectors more ditticuk than ever, and 
inducing a permanenF gncenalntj In all d^inkrng individuals. Elcmentj or 
tran&jtional facets oE the new society ire appearing here and there without 
obvious lje& btiween them. 

The global tevolutkm has no Ideological basEs, It Is bdng shaped by an 
urprcfedented ml laurc of geostta regie upheavals caused by social, economic. 
technologic j1, cultural and ethic j] factots Com bination? of these factors lead 
to unpredictable situations, in this tran^jtronal peclod. humanity is therefore 

EaciEig J double challenge - having to grope its way towards an undecstanding 
of the new world With Iti many hidden been and also, amidst the mistf t>f 
unceruinty. to l«m "bo* to manage the new world and not be managed by 
It. Our aim must be esientiatly normative -to visualize die sort of world we 
woidd bke to live tn, to evaluate the maralal, human and moral resources 

available, to make out vlskm realistic and sustainable, and then 10 mot^llie the 
human energy and pollucal will to fbige the new globai society. 

[n mattcri of public ajn^erji, aim other areas of human IntcrcsLbshtcns 

prevail. Yesterday the nudcai problem wsi uppermost tn people's minds: 

later the population cxploskHi reached die headlines; today the environment 

Is a b mode and coocem with population has receded. The eneigy crisis was 

seldom menuoned publicly carbcT, but the event! tn the Middle East have 

already made dils the new preoccupabcm. Ihc ztccd Is to consider all these 

as essenual angles of illuminaCLon in the kaleidoscope of plar:etary change^ 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



4 • The First Clotmi ReFoiwum 

[n thlstanftlc of change itis- important as never bdorctolook beyond (he 
pressing issues of the momeni lo ihe [orfcs bf yond tbr horizon. Forfliasting is 
necessary, tad will nccnsdrlly beaieL^Eive I^iluir. Simple cKiiapolailon of 
existing Trends will not gkve us rcilistJc answcis, Ttit Umlb ft Giwtf' tud 
developed an Interactive simulabon model thai produced a variety of 
^cnirlos which wrre fspfclally meM for definjng what wis to be 
prevented- In some- fields such k tedmolo^ and industry, long-ietm 
foreca^ng j& Indispensable and efioit± In that dliection are being made b; 
some of the most forward looking cotporations, which are snuggling ro 
Invent new methodologies fo« planning In uoceitalnty. 



Inthethinin, dw American president Frinltfin D. Iftxiw^eft 
coinmisstonedhlaadmintstrailDri m urtdprukea vast »udy oFth? 
tomrnf ledinolr>gle5. When The study wu ptibll^ied El made a v^ry big 
lmprts:Skin. Indeed, It was enrtirallinB- There ivas iusi one problern: It 
hadnoipmlictKl t^e earning or televFs1on,rKXl'iato'pJasiK, or |ei 

l^lan^, or OJ-gan LranspJa;its, or Easf r beams, not even of baJI-pOinli 
pensP 

Franz-Ollvier Gnes&ert' 



One aspect of the OHiteinporary situation Is an Increasing awareness chat 
the human race, Ir pUrSUK of mWCllal gain by ihe expMOtlon of natUTCj Is 
racing towards ihe desmiclton of the planet and lOeli. The thiejt of nuclear 
descrucQon, although less imminent, is always -with us, and the possibility of 
itteverSibledlmabcChange with only djmly foreseeable consequences 15 an 
Imminent menace. Such mgredlenis of the present problemanqtie are glotal 
in character and cannot be tackled by even the largest powers In Isolation, 
Only if all the Inhabltatm of the planet realize that they are hdng Immediate 
and common dangers, can a uniTcrul political will be generated for untied 
;rcthDn to secure die survival cJhumuiiiy. This Is why wc all fbt die crniion 
of world solidarity. 

The term 'solidarity' hs been greatly misused and seriously devalued. Its 
application to circumstances in whith motivationj for common belief oi action 
were too weak, have gjven li a ^mewhat ucopian jnd insubsundjl 
tgnnoodgn. fnihc pre^cm cicum&t^nce&j however, the exicDt of danger to 
the future well being of ^11 the inhabiunts of the planet gives such enhartced 
force to the riecessltf for solldarltyn that unity atui stability must plainly be 
generated. 



I. Tba wa Ihc m Kqun Lo dv Club ai Sldidc ^Mcjdoitfi ci ll 1V12}. 
1 CWiben, 1990. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



IntmiaKtiim • 5 

Wc have volunardy presented a slmpllfio! version oF thlngi; msny of d>c 
phenomena mcntkmed herein would have to be analysed boih more deeply 
and more subtly. This would requite numerom and welfjhtv volumes 

Out opticm wis diHeieni. Oui wish was btlcEly - even if supcrEdally and 
Incompletely - [o hy out elemcna thac may alrexly be known in order to 
show how they interact and through thetrertunglciticnt. To ^Eare our OUdook 
on the present woild problemaOque as clearly aspossrt^. We do not Intend 
to dtaw up a blueprint of conaete actions for the salvjcion of the wo^r 
NeuettheLess. OUI analysis of the sltuau-on encourages lu to make a number of 
piacflcalpioponh, tosuggcst possible lines of action jnd to IndfciK necessary 
changes It^ anttude. 

Never before has humanity possessed, a It docs today, the knowledge vkI 
the skills, the resources and the cohesion to shape a better world. Th!s^»uld 
generate hope In all people. Tet there Is widespread uneasiness and fear of 
Impending changes which In implngng on the sQll Incomplete changes of 
recent decades will add lo die unccruinty. This very uncertainty, togcthcc 
with the removal of the traditional tesdctloos of the past and the new hopes 
for the future provides an enormous Impetus for reshaping the wotid sodetyr 
The tragedy of the human condLtion \i that we have not yet reached a position 
to realize our potential. We see the world md its resources being gio«sLy 
mismanaged, yet we are lulled by the complacency of our leaders and our 
own Inertia and resistance to change. Time is tunning out. Some problems 
have already reached a magnitude which Is beyond the point of successful 
eoncrol and the costs of delay are monstrously high. Unlesi we wake up jnd 
act quickly It could be too late. 

This book. Is organized in two parts. The first deals with the ptobLemanque 
and purports to present the main changes of the last two deE:ades , to describe 
the malaise which they have caused and to oudme some of the rmnt Imporaant 
issues md dangers which humanity has to lace unitedly. The second pin 
describes the resoluilque and anempt^ to preseiit a numbei of actions which, 
at this stage, seem specially necessary to pursue. Flrully we return to the 
need to generate world solidarity, 

r& FiBl GfaW Rflwiudw Is written for all.thow who have the spark of the 
cKpJofcr, the discovctCL the tisk oker-tbclcanKr, Ihncarcthepcopie 
we shall have to count on to face the appalling Isai-es described herein, to ser 
the goals and try to leadi thcnn and to Lear ii fiom their laiiuf C»and successes, 
to go on trying - learning. 

Finally, It is addressed to those who ait concerned with die future of the 
planer and of humankind, and hc^>es to sharpen thetr cotKem. This book may 
also help to awaken concern tn otheis. Above al Mt is addressed to the young. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



6 • The First Global RfPoiMtitm 

so they may assess more coherently the slatf al the world which they hjvc 
inherited from eirlier geneiAtion^, md may be inspired to work for the 
confiiLKiiioEt of d new and ^u^raiiublc wcicty. capable of provkflng etjiulJi^ 
and modest ptospccicy foi iheir children and gK^ncrjoon^ to come- 

Thli li ihe spin! in which we ofEer these ideas dnd proposals foi action, for 
lejming our wjy into the future. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Parti 



The Probhmatiqm 



1. A Whirhvind of Change 



iPnurT^, \9m: 71 ^taj old \an PaJLak ^ tatn^ OH fin tS Wnur^ ^tftUTt In 
Piigiie lupmrfil a^ml tht anapaiiar\ tf Cuditsiteaiia ^SoUcI Unfa. 

Dttmia. im: imiai vntii V^^ HiMd k tktid Proiieil ff Iftr Rt^l^k of 

Scp^mMr, 7975: iauaacif in Cfiik ti mc^ am^ ij a ^bodi^ m^tfirjj avf [10.000 
itai M til TMwlk, fO.Ono arrnltd and ibi.COO fantd int» tnk). 

DetnbcT. 1939: ?M iicimttaliC fJalion niuf Se^bet. }970 put an oid lo tHi 
iniUlaitr rt^hht in Cblr. 

rh( nxds of (he coming global rcvolu[ion have been gciminattng $loi#ly 
ova many yurs, during which ramplfviLy and unf trtJlniy In condtUorts and 
[^Id dunge uc beginning lo ovowtwlm lb? apacity of govemniRili jII 
over the woild. Indeed, govetnmenc rfcver like change. Wedded lo the 
su tus quo, iheyteaci to &ympCDm& of change, but seldonnio the caiu« which 
tend to he icgatded witb smplcion is possibly being 'subversive' in ruiure. 
One of the [TKAt obvious ispcos oFhumdn Fnlliy Is loo much concentration on 
die kmmedlaie, wldi too llnlc caie foi fucuie ODn&cquenc^ — m Insbtenceon 
immediate giaUhcailon. Thi& applies lo tnstiCuUom a£ well a to people 
Covernmei^D operating under the lyianny of the next elecifon Ebcus on che 
present Issues md avoid more distant but, frequcndy, more fundamental 
r^aneis. CorporaQons, likewise* bow to the tyranny oE next year's bottom 
line, aldiough both govemment^ and enterprises do try to look beyond chc 
next electkin or annual repott in much of what they do. 

The Club of Rome was founded in the year IW when the economic 
gcowthmanLa was attts height. Soon after the publication ofiis firK report, T^ 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



8 • The Fim Gicbcd RiPidutnn 

hmt U Cwo\k " in 1*72. ihc world wa^ hit by [htf Oil tt\%\%. Thij had many 
repercu&jons on JEs economy dnd sodety ; l[ had a strong Impact on the wcirld 
investment pttcm and caused many policy modifications as. for example. In 
the iititudc oF the Ujilted Sates to the Middle East, The crisis was a dear 
warning to lb? industrialized countries about the dependence oF tbeii 
cconoTTiicsijn the secure supply olraw rndLCEl^l^ and energy, which in lurt^ 
was tandls) dependenton events tn distant places which are largely beyond 
tbeli control . 



in Todii/s worid dii curves art uponenHaMr is only in mathemdlio 
tFur nponenriai curves ^jnm to infinity. In rui \\h they either Ixcak 
downnt^Birophicdliyorihey uturareirentiy. iris our duly j&ihmkme 
people ta ^Trlvt cowjrd^ J genlle ^turanon jithoiigh this pose& Fiew 

AT\i very dllTkiuIl quesuons. 

Dennis ilabori 



The oil cusis brought home to mosi oF the oil-irnportkng developuig 
CDuntilcs the e:ttent of their reliance on cheap Fuels, with hdrdiy any local 
energy alternative; it also led these countirles into ejicesstve ejitemal 
indebtedness. [;oc»t:nuch[afo^:dcvciopfnir tic, but lopiy [he Oil bill. This 
alsis ind other faaois have led to a considerable lowering oF economic 
growth rates fiom the high levels of die previous decades- Howevern 
achievement oF economic growth sQll remains thf main fxplicic [;oa] of 
economic policy, with too little considention of diFFerenEial needs and quality 
aspects. How far the published growth Figures reFlect real increase Ln huitian 
welEire is open to question. 



If, for example, an econoriy grows dt a\ annual rate d 5%, it would, 
by the end oT the nvxt century, rvach a level of 500 times greater [or 
50,000% hlglier] (han [he oirreri 1^^. 

EdiHTdl^steP 



Much oF what is counted as growth Xi probably not growth at alL For 
example, in the United States oF President Re jgan, growth Figures conceaJed 
overconsumption and public underinvestment. de[eriorat>on of the 
InFraslruccure. decay oF the inner cities, and social de^adition. Noils there 
any evidence that growth in the North leads in time to developfnent in the 
South ^ 



1. M«dowi, vtu. 

? HdIkI Prljr- wirnci. lEivcnwi of hologriphy ^Cabor. 14?A| 
S Foimet Minifier oE Culcuie, Soencc and Tcchnolcigy d Lower SticnVr brmcE 
membeioE [ht Eyecntivc Commiticr of the Club of Etome ^fWtelr JW), 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



A WhiriwMdofajan^ • 9 

In 106S, few could luvc fote&ccn chc furtdamcnial pollQcal chatigcs vk have 
iccrnily witnessed. A^re^d^ the polldc^domiridncie of the two superpowers 

wifr beginning la d'^indlc, bui ibc cold wdi not ' only lukd E^-Wc5i 
reUtJon^H U also defined die whole InterrutJoiul system, torn ipart by 
Ideological poljrization. The recent events In USSR and Eastern Europe have 
therefore shaken not only the regkin. but thr whole planet The collipse of 
economic communism and tJie disintegration of the Wdjsaw Pki bloc of 
natioiu has aioused gtm hope? -ind is Invested wictj great dan^rs. The 
sicuatkin ii cxnemeJy flutd, has few constialncs, and the consolidation of 
present trends offtts great qtpomjnidrs for [Kr strufturlng^nd renewal of a 

much widci icglon- and posdhly d dw world system j& i whole. 

History Is unlikely to provide another opportunity as open and promtslngas 
today's, and it ts essential forhumanitytofinddicwudom to exploit It. This 
unfceeilng of die geopolitical ngidittcs of the last forty-five years Is one, but 
only one of thp elements shaping the global revolution. Entangled with many 
other forces of changes IE has made the future jhapc of the world still more 
uncertain. 

Throughout the period since 1968 the world has lived under the shadow of 
the nuclear bomb. Howcvcn^tth East and West willing to put an end to the 
cold war, a r«w climate Is now dawning in knremadonal affalts despite the 
selbacksrecordedat ihebe^nnlngot 1991. Although nuclear annlhltatlOEi rko 
longer seems I mmlnen[, [hethreachds cedamly not been banished; Indeed ii 
jmy exist as long as the planet is pcc^lcd by humans. Great vigilance is 

es&eniiAL not only wiih re^fd to the intciitioA) and beh^vbur of die present 

nuclear powers, hut also to curtail nuclear pnollfcratton and to ensure chat 
small nations now developing nuclear devices are persuaded or prevented 
from using them In IcMzal wars agaliutneighbounng stsces. This requires a new 
strategy on a global scale, quite dl^renc fiom the bipolar appioach of the cold 
war period. Humanity will have to be forever on guard ^galnsi the rise of 
Insane leaders with great charisma, capable of hypnc^zing whole nations, and 
willing to destroy the world rather than go down m defeat. Such was the cjse 
in lanuary. 1991, wjdi the Gulf War, Who can foretell &k medium - to 
long — term coruequcrKes of the war on tf^ environment as well as on the 

geopolidcal balincc in die Middle Eisi? 

IJcsptte present dlfftculcies and contradictions, there is still hope for 
continued progress In disarmament negotiations concerning conventional 
armsand chemical and bidoglcal weapons. Wars on the world scale must be 
avoided^ the powerand sophistication of modern weapons make winning out 
of the questton and the high cost of their development and man ufaaurc is a 
permanent burden. Inhibiting eo:momlc and social development Local wais 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



10 • The Fmt Ghhd RiFolutum 

ui likely Coowari tie to occur unni som^ measure of overall global hannony a 
oiaUhbcd^ to thr period imdei leview. some fifty such wjts have idgcd dnd 
there has been a cmsiderable buildup erf aims Inlhe less developed ojuntrks. 
10 the detriment of their economic development. 

The economies of the Indusmalized nations benefit gready tiom the sale of 
itm%. The buiineis li highly ^mp«iuve and rantributes gr?ady to Inaeasmg 
the threat of WIT. Furthermore, the irms ti^c can easily boomciang and hit 
iheiutionssuppLylngtheaEms.ashdsbecnthe casein the Fatkhnd^W Gulf 
wars. The linei. In particular, has hLg>ilighrcd the need to control ibe arms 
Industry, both that operated by the governments themwJvcs and that 
Operated by private connatiors, in the [nteresc of humanicy as a whok. 

H must be emphasized here that peace is not merely the absence of wat. 
^d that even without war conQici^ will oontinuc and will change in 
character; examples ate trade wars, tocdttarian regimes and economic 
colonialism- inequitable distribudon of resources is certainly one of the 
stronger and mo5i in&idiou^ triggcis oE conllia. 

Exiemlve disarmament— achieved oi planned — should set hec human 
and material resouiccs, that can be used for mote positive putposes, such as in 
restructuring the econonules of eastern Eun^pen providing more iz^vcsdneni In 
Africa and Latm America, and miking possible envltonmcntjl renewal. The 
process of disarmament, however, brings Its own problems. For some 
cotinlT'les.particularLy the Soviet Union, the process is diRicult on account of 
the need to lehou^ large numbers of discharged soldiers and to absoibdvm 
in a precarious and changing economy. As foi TcdJsttlbutlon of the turns 
saved, these can all !□□ e^ily become unidentitaabLe within the finances of the 
national treasury, or indirecdy tome under the control of narrow vested 
interests. 

E^tmoHiK charge 

Great changes have also taken place on the- economic front and will be 
analysed in more detail in Chapter J. After the period of rapid growth, 
rctcssion set Jn SimultWCOUSly with the oil crisis. During die last two decadei 
the economic centre of gravity has mo vcd towards the Pacific region . with the 
amazing success of the Japnese industrial economy, |apan now accounts for 
aboullSper ccniof the world's total tinarKdal activity, tlowever, this iS i^^ 
talking rapidly with the decline In the Tokyo stock market and falling real 
estate prices. Japan has not yet learned how to enerdse its strength, even if it 
has contributed funds to assist debtors in alleviating their burden under the 
Biady plan. Its political moves are cautious and tentative and, as yet. It Is mi as 
effective internadonally a& Et ^uld be. 
One of the outstanding facts of these recent years has been the progressive 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



convcnion ro a marker rconomy. whlciisccnn m be the common famre in 
mosl countrtfs of Ihc woild Open compcouon, jomeiimcs bruul, on bodi 
the Inicinaumal aai Lbc dauqiuI h^c I^ *Xfnv\£vx4 not gnJy polidat 
leaders, but also consomcrsH vtxas. and the community at lugt that the 
vitjStty of It tE Tneplact^ble- Private busine^^ rs consideiMJ lo b« Its itutor, 
picfil to be necfssjtv Eor invKtmenr and the Einjncidl AUikCl to be the 
inevtuble meeting pornt between savings and investmentr 

The elfccdvencss of the zzurkei as a soclai insdtutJon foi harnessing 
productive eneigies lud meetliig human needs Is [xm unli/ersally 
acknowledged. But matkci mechanisms alone camxjt cope with global 
problems thai requite a (ong teim strategic ap^oach or Involve disttlbudonal 
Issues. They caniKJL by thcimelves solve problems related to eiiei|;y, 
envlronmcn<H fundameniaJ research, o: t^rncs, Ody public Intervention, 
based on political processn and often using market me<:hanisms as 
InstiumenQ of pubbc policy, can deal with thew problems. 

Maikct forces on have dargciou^ ^ide effects bcause rbcy arc not 
founded on geneial interest Iniern^nonal fiiuncial speculation li a 
particularly eloquent example of the excesses caused by market forces, of 
people gripped by the madneu of profit under iay clicumsiances. 
Spcculabon has bctoirie a game that Is unconnected w!ih economic realities; it 
has escaped from the h^nds of men to be run byaBnputer ^tware arid has 
leacbcd new djmen&jons and velocity thanks to the Information society. 

Some efforts - still modest, for the task Is tremerrdous — are leading a first 

attack ofi the undcrgtound trifBcktrig of goods thn^ugh Its fknancial 

manifesrailons: the nxiney bundcrlng for diug traffic or unauiSortied arms 
sales, for iniiance, is beOig discovered by breaking the seal of secrecy on 
nun:^bered bank accounis. HopefullyH such effbrts will liKrease and lead to 
true Intemadonal cooperation. 

We also can:»[ Igpotc gccu^tcgk: chingc. The world is cuticndy 
witnessing the emeigeiKe of three gigantic trading and Industiial economic 
groups. The North American matket. In which Canada has taw joined the 
United Slates, and which Mexko 'a expected to ^in, will inevitably continue 
to be an IndusQlal and post-lrxlusulal group of great power. However, lis 
immediate future is clouded by the Immense dc^tlt which, dmdzlnglyp (he 
tlnlicd States has allowed Itself to accumulate In recent ycais. 

The development of the European Community, despite the years of 
hcsltitkon, is now gdining momentum, ds its members see tangible economic 
ind political advantages In ccwperstion and devise new mechanisms for its 
operations. As 1W3 approac^KS, bringing the completion of economic 
integration closet, the Community has begun discussions on poLtical unity. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



12 • ThcFmtGhAaiRn'aimim 

This has become csp«ially urgent wlih dw reunification of East and W«i 
Gcimany, A European CommuiULy embiacjng [he whole of the Western 
Europe and later [olncd by its Eastern neighbours - whose tiansformed 
economics should make this possible - would constitute i secor^ bloc of 
great strength. Despite present conFusion, i[ la possible that the European 
rfpublte of Ehc Soviet Union will eventually follow the same toad, thus 
unifying Europe 'horn the Atlantic to the Uial Mountains', as expressed by 
Charles de Gaulle In I960.' 

The thjid bloc consjsts of [apan and the ASEAN' countrfts, iiKludit^ foe 
exAHipieThdlland.lndonesiaor Malaysia, which are growing lapit^iy Perhaps 
Au&Hdiii jtkI tJcw 2c3\3tk\. which have sitong trading links with the other 
Pacific councnes, may later find themselves in this grouping- Even at thl^catly 
stage of development, die existence of these three blcri3 signifies an utterly 
different world pattern of trade and industry. 

These new blocs are not restrlcuve. on the whole, to other trading 
coujiirics. although ihcy do have cerium non aiiH bariicrs and djsguiscd 
proiectkon. There is much tiade between the groups. In any event, what 
should be emphasized Js that diere has been 3 very rapid dcvclopmeni of 
technology and an increase in the spee^i of its application whkh has modified 
the relative strength of the different trade groups, especially diat of die 
japan /ASEAN group. 

This prospect has caused great concern m theother regions of the world, 
Laljn America, close to the United States, but wjch a different ctho», is 
pariiculjily perplexed. While initiatives fnDm lis neighbour in the north are 
on the horizon, lE is also stretching out towards Europe, with Spdin playing a 
special role through its membership in the European Economic Community 
and other European multilateral agencies and councils. The St>viet Union, in 
disjrriy. Is not yet in a position to deal with this situation China, jficr the 
brutal events of IW* remains an cnigmai while impoverished Africa hardly 
appears on the wocld economic map. 

The South Asian region, dominated hy the huge geogrjphlcal 2nd 
deiEtographic bulk of India, has made some progress, but it ts sdll uncertain 
whether It will be able to make the sort of economic breakthro^h that has 
occurred m 5Duth East Asia. Here, population control Is the key. 

Great care will have to be taken in forging the links between the evolving 
econom Ic blocs and the countries still outside. Some are already superclliously 



I Ln a Ifjcvijjor inlcrvirw during hiivisil co Patu in iWt. Mjkhjil Gotiachey qinxed th\i 
sutemenl bv dr GiuJJr whoi leEcnmg to Europe 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irraterlaal 



A WhtrivindofChat^ » 13 

referring Eo [he latter u ihc 'rtsidujlcounlries'. As these Include rni!nl of [1m 
poorer couniries, (he new ctonomif panem necessiom j fundamcriQUy 
<ilffcient approach to the problem of ovet^ll developmenr. Including i 
conceptual ^wuch from aid loparmerahlp. The Gulf crtsia may be a fbrciaitc of 
many conElicis to come, nai necessarily only In the fonn of North-South 
tonFronQDon, bui rtlatrd io r«ouices which weII Include eneigy and food 
avdtlabllity, population pressures, and ethnic uid religious animosities, [n a 
pluraljstjc world with marty cultural, ethnic and religious differences, 
acceptance oF od^ers Is essei^Eial ind Alll have to be manifested In both word 
and deed, k has to be appieclatcd that the Western raOonallsi view of wjorld 

problems [^difficult for many countries to accep[ and may a[ Qmcj be wrong. 
Indeed, the position ln[raq in 1»1 represents a reiection of Western values, 
largely supported by the Arab Muslim public opinion . 

Conflicts In a world domiiuied by huge trade blocs are likely to be uery 
different from those of today's world of nation slates. Wirs between 

counoitt wjthin a bloc or bccwccti blocs arc more llkcl? lo be economic than 
military The role of the transnational corporations will probably become 
Increasingly important, since their activities and concerns would permeate lU 
die blocs. 

The IntmUpmdtna iffnattoHS 

A further feature of die get^litical scene Is a belated recogn[iion of die 
essentially global nature of nnany contemporary problems, which cannot be 
solved or even approached realistically by individual countries In Isolation, 
This has long been Ehe casein the economic field. One has only to remember 
how quickl y die effects of the Wall Sirce[ aash in 1929 spread [o causca world 
depression during the thirties, and how mass unemployment tends to appear 
simultaneously In many countries. This global nature ot problems is no doubt 
the inevitable consequence of the great expansion of world trade which this 
century has witnessed. Morerecendy. global problen^soFa different nature 
have anser These langc from environmental Issues to Law of die Sea' 
negouanons and iniernanonal Rnarue. Recognition of this new situation^ 
awareness of which came very slowly. If Illustrated by the mushrooming of 
inicrg^vcrn mental Conferences and those of specialized professional and, 
sclenufic organliatlons during ouz peiiod of review, [t is doubcful if present 
Jniernauonal snuciutes are sufficiently equipped to deal with this new 
situation. The United NaDons and its specialized agencies, which wtxt 
founded in the posi-war euphoria, were designed io meet the needs of a 
much simpler world siiuanoin ^nd arr increasingly inappropriate for Eoday's 
needs The present Icss-lhan [deal circumstances provide an oppotruniiy as 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd maleriaal 



14 • TheFmiGUMBjviflurwH 

well ai pgml io the impcrdbvc need lor rCalni^^turlng the Uiilud NlUOm 
syncm, rcalloating the Funcckms of die various dgrncm and p:og[dmme3, 
and providing 3 new fociu. Currail dlfEiculrio In rewtullzlng Unsco sbo* 
hew ditticuk [hii will be. We ihould tUo urdeiLlne the ttKreasln^y 
imparonl roic Jitd gieatei rffectiveness of nacionj] jnd inlern^tionjl tJCOs 
(z>DngovcnimenQl org^niz^uon^] m venous Eiflds, 

Concern about (he gJob^ enviionment i& giving tIicio a numbeioFdAK 
enqujrips at diFEf rent leveh, InclLiding rhjt of Heads of Govemmeni. As jrx 
such attempts are skitung ihf Etind^menul !55(im Tt Is hoped chjl cominon 
andujilvcr^^hction eo comb^E&uchglobal problems will surmounEintei bloc 

ilvaliy. 

This lejds on to the coruLdciauon of [he remaikable JiiocaKe in the 
Inicrdcpcndenccotiutkiru which our period has seen. The ilfc of economic 
communities, [he need for a common approach lo global iaue&. the In^mense 
expansion of Inrematkmal communications, and (be activities of the 
transnational corpontkin( are V^me c^ thc COnttlbutory ^^rs. In addition, 
thespreadof technology andLtsKrvicesthioughout the world, the need for 
common standards, codes of agceed practice, dlnributfcm of radio 
wivelfflgths and a thousand othet technkral a^temtna fepreiJifiF [f\ ^!t 
totality, a spreading web of inlerdependence andaJf/tic^ erosion of national 
sovereignty, which govemmena hav<: noL yet fully realized. 



The a^x of wvere^^nty h^s become mankind's rTU>3r rrilBton. Els God 

Arnold Toynbeei 



The very concepi of sovereignty procbimcd as sacrosana by al] govern- 
ments has been challenged, and only partly because crfihe development of 
regional communitto. indeed, many smaller countries already have very 
llnle control over their own a&Jrs because of decisions taken oucdde cbdr 
lerrltoTles, such as the establtshment of commodity prica or Interest rates, ra 
du« to by economic policies modlfi-ed co obtam IMF funding. £rosian of 
sovereignty may be a posldvf move towards the new global system fot most 
counirles, In which the nation state will, In all piobabibiy, havedimjnishjng 
slgnlfkancf . En the case of most of the subSahatan countries of Africa, 
however, the malciienancc and even the rclnforcemeni of sovereignty is 
ejsertdal Ia the present circumstances. Theie coutnrles ize intri[)Sically 



].Binnhhi3iotLijiU»tt-l«79^ 
2. LnlFnudorul Monrlzc)' Fund 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



A WhtrivindofChan^ • 15 

artifidaL dcilvcd through the process of dccokmfjation from the arbitnry 
CJivIng up of die ojnTinent by the forsncr tioloiiLal povfcti- 

Elete II Is nercuar^ to distinguish bcLwecn i nukm and i ituc. The A^<jn 
itatc may tonslsioia number of tribes whshaie. In follcy, nations. A country 
such as Chad Is politically a sale, but Is not likdyioever become a nation. The 

situatbn ij futthdi conipbcaud by the bd thit imponanr n^nor rr\bcs nay be 

distributed between several slates. Recognition of the sovereignty of such 
states may ihetcforc be necessary to encourage coherence uid common 
idendly, bui It should lead to regionaE organization. In Litin America the 
notion of uveidgnty Is sdU strc^glv defended as i t^rliiicjl defence against 

the gTMipoxi^K. 

A new concept has emerged a icon^quenceaf artificially cteated states 

widi nation peoples dispersed imong differenc sates: 'ihe right to InlcrFere 

(for humanitarian reasons! ^'"'s recently put Into practice on a French 

mjtiitive, and soon after with United Nations' blcsslngSn by Fiance, the United 

Kingdom and \hc United Statn. Ii consisted of a humanitarian oper^uon in 

IraqInfavouEof the Kurdish people. Such a concept. If It were lobe accepted 

In [he fuEurr, would TepreEent a considerable evoluttan In international law. 

which for once would be nxire a reflection of humanliatlan considerations 

than of constitutional rules arkd nationalist self -centredness. 

Tbt mvitkeniti^ of minorities and naiiimatism 

This biing^ u& to appaieni patadox in world poEltical trends, On the one 
hand there is a tendency to create larger units, » in the case of die economic 
communities. Also, the resolution of the global problems demands action on 
a global scale. On the other hjnd.thfc^Lwwjdtspreid pub] If di^likf of what 
is seen as excessive centralization. I'he dominance oE large, faceless 
bureaucracies which appear to disregard the needs of individuals and of local 
communities Is generally resented. The sitiutton Is particularly acute where 
such dominance Impinges on the idendiy of ethnic minorities, and In an 
cvci incrcaungnumbctof pt^c^ edinl-c groups aic bccommg vocaJ ^nd a^tve 
In their demands for autonomy or independence, in Europe, for exaznple. the 
Catalans and the Scots are asserting their nationhood, while the Irish, Basq ues 
and Corsicans have resorted Eo violence. Yugoslavia, which is an uneasy 
federation of republics with different historical tradlnons and ethnic mixes, 
threatens to disintegrate. 

China, too, has great eduiic diversity, but pejhaps die most remaikableof 
all Is the situation In the Soviet Union, the most fTthniCjIlyhetaogenous of all 
fedciMom. where the arrival of ^aoM and pcraJmlu htvt led to ^parjast 
movements among a do^en or more republics, in America we are wrmessing 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



16 • The Fim Ghb^ Brptduam 

the coUccEivc awak«ilrg of Amertcan FtxIi^ih who now hive recouTse to 
dcUon. Hiipanic and other iiniepiesealed minorities who havt bthcrlo aim 
bcoi powctlcs^r now hive the mems lo oke aokm. 

These two appMttilly opposed trends are. In rcaiicy, compadblc. The 
amflln irises from the difficulty of reconciling ihem within the exilsting 
politif^l iysrem which i( tigldly bl$(^ On the A»dcl of the nation s(jLe. What 
Is needed IS a rctorrnuUllon of the apptoprtiie Levels of dedjlon making so as 
to bring the poln& ot declslon-maklt^ as near as possible to those who en|oy 
or suffer thdr comcqucnces^ Thcte appears to be a common human need Eor 
ethnic id? n[iiy. whose [00t& lie deeply buileci In die past at the human lace. 

Egualiyn ihcie ^ppnrs to be a wldesEoead leDdenc^smciiig peopk. cum in 

ethn^ly homf^meociK communities, to be IdenCi^d with the affairs, 
prosperity tad environment of dielT' community His su^ested that a greater 
number of polnii of dedsion-maklng are ncces^y , ungjng from the atilcdy 
local to die international. Thtscould use the load on ccnaal governments and 

help to humanise the jyitcm. 

Urban jpvwih 

Urban growth ha^ been a piomlnent feature of the modem en and Is Lkely 

to continue as njch , Accoc^Iing ■□ United Nati^ms enf mutes, ^iproiimacelydO 

per cent of the world population will be iMng in townj at the ™d of die 

ccnturv»ind there willbcabomthlrtycttlesjndieworld with more than five 
million Inhabitants, with the largest, Mexico City, having 24-26 million 
Irkhablt^nts. While this Isa worldwide phenomenon, II: 1^ particularly in^rked 
Ie3 the dcvdof^ng countries where ciues have mushioomed both due to a high 
birth rjte in the dtjes themselves atkd an Influx of peasants who have left the 
lind to exchange rural foe urban poverty. Et Is Interesting co note that in 
London, the first city to have a populatron of one miillion inhabiLUitSn more 
p&iple died chan wac born until ii*, incrcwc coming essentially from rural 
eiTiigration. hi the dcvelc^ing countries todayn we see a reverse trend with 
Internal growdi being die main factor of increase. This Indicates bow gready 
xanlQiion and health have Improved, despite the very difficult living 
conditions of the urban poor. 

Managcmeni of die mammoth dtte, such as Mexico, Sao Paulo. Lagcs, 
Cairo or CalcutQ, is exiiemcly difEiculc, cijHrci^lly stnce a large proportion of 
the urban dwellers arc QnaEEiCL^I', livjnginfjvelasorshantjiowns, with little 
or no sanitation and more or less, outside the control of the authorities. 
Provlston of water, health services, ediKatfonn employment, urban 
tnnjpOttaUOfrh imJ conmil of pollution arc some of ihe components of the 
complex of urban problems about which there ti no previous e>:penen<:e on 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



ihc present scale 

All over ih< developing regions, paCCcmsof scniemem. and conscquenily 
Lifesiyles, 2ie duagij:ig rjpidJy, ind tiirly brgr dbn ue springing up, oFtcn 
consisting imMj of a tgnv/i oF shantytownsn completely lacking any 
adequaie economic huti. En the Sabe] legion of Afdc^n tot Insrance, towns 
such as NauakchorF, Bamsto and Ouagadougou, until t«rt:nrly quiet 
admlnlsttailve cenaes, have become vast urban slums with ptobably as many 
as a million Inhjbitanu each, and with all the exp](stve econoniEc and 
psychologkcal tensions that luch slums inevlubly suffei From, The new 
patterns of »en3cnicr>i and excessively rapid urban cKpanslon arf partly the 

tcsiilijl&o of high taifsoF population growihinfberec«nipist. 

Througbauc the peiiod under review, great efForis have been made to 
speed up liic devc-lopmcnt of the poorer countries, thtough massive 
programmes oF aid, both bilateral and multilateral, caplsl and technical, A 
somewhar opCtmlJtkc assessment of some aspects of these etforts was nude by 
Mahbub Ul liaq>: 

Average life eupcciancy haj increased by slxiecn years, adult literacy by «J 
per cent, per capita nuirttional levels by over 20 per cent uid cbild 
mortality rates have been halved during this period. In fact, developing 
countries have achieved in the last thirty yeais the kind oF real human 
pnDgreH that IT took Industrial counrtltt nearly a centuiy to accomplish, 
while the Income gap between North and South is still very large - with 
the average income In (he South being 6 per cent of (hat In the North- the 
human gaps have been closing Fast: average life expectancy in the Soud) Is 
by now gOpcrcenioFtheNordKtn average level, adiih literacy 66 per cen[ 
and nutritional level 8^ per cent It Is true that ibc past rccoid oF the 
developing world is uneven, as between various regions and countries, 
and even within CQunmes, lllsalsotruedut there is still a large unfinished 
agenda oF human development— with one-fourth oF the people m 
developing countries sdll deprived oF bask human needs, a minimum 

inwmc level and dccon wclil scivi«s. But ibc ovcnll policy cokIujIwi Js 

that die development process docs work, thar International development 
cooperation has nude a ^gnlflcant differerKe. and that the Eemalning 
agenda oF human development should be manageable In the I^QQs iF 
development pnormes are properly' chosen. 



1 Spedil AdvksoTiolINDf AdmlnmiiDr^pcisordlconimuiilcatiDrk. 1V90 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



18 • The Fmt Gkhai Rrmiuam 

Nevertheless, results have been artCVCrt afld often disappointing. Hunger, 
TnaLnurrldcqi. dlscMe ukI poveny id] iSUcti large pioportion of humanity 
and jre aggravated by the popuUtion explocion, droughts and mmy Local 
wars The purchase of aims by many of the pootct couniiles from the 
induitrialized nationi nor only icprcscni^ a huge economic burden, but also 
encourages miliarism The jrms trade, in cffoa, produces i considcrible 
flow of wcaidi from the poof lo die rich coontrla. A numbei oJ leading 
developing tountries have al$o bulk up jn increasingly impMjnant acms 
Irxlustiyn partly for e^tpon puipeiaei. 

Sclendtlc and technaFogical advances rn the Industrialized countries tend to 
Increase the rconomii: dj^uiic^ k^vccn ih? rich jnd the pooi counalesand 
lo Inhibn th-c latter from undertakjng technological jnnavacloni. Thus the 
poor countrla. lacking Industrial, tedinologtcail and scientific structures ^nd 
tiajned managerial capacity, have been uiable to assimilate much of the 
technology jnd know how available to diem. Technology Qinsfer was 
assumed to be the obvious method of IntroducUig new processes and new 
Industries Inio the les^ developed countries, but It has often failed — 
sometimei is a rcniLi of selecting lEUpproprrttc processes or unsuitable 
industries and Eometlmps, with d« transfer of state of the 3rr refhnolagy, 
bectiuse of insufficieri i pieparaDon and absence of managemcni, maintenance 
and mjikering skills Jn die receji'ing counuy Ofien new tec^ologies have 
been introduced far import subsi][utiijn which have noi achieved the hi^ 
iiandards which are necessarv lo ensure Inlernauonal compctitlvenesSr 

Too much impatQncc has been given lo laige saie and umcumes 
dtamadc schemes, for example the building of large dams to ptovtde 
hydroelecQk power and make possible extensive InlgaElonfaclllQes^ All too 
often the dam rescrvoln have sjtted up and the irrigation water has become 
salincH while there hu been lltdccompiicmcaiai]' industrkil development and 

no nual ekcujfication netwocks n convey dK powct ro consumcis, Al», In 

die <icsign of suth schemes, loo lltde atKniltffi h as been given to social factors, 
Indudlrig the dispbtementof large populations, the loss, of ktb of fertile soil 
flooded in the reservtilr arei, and the spread of bllhareUsIs via the in^gadon 
chaniKEs. PartJculaily In A^ica, the fragmcntauon of the conttnem into too 
many small and economically unviable countries, each possessing markets 
which are loo small, has limited the value ^ large scale projects. 

In agriculEure, the Green Revolution has registered iionsidei^ble success, 
with the Introduction of new and high yielding vanedesof wheiE, malieand 
rice and die intensive useofnttrogenou^ternliTersespeciallyin India and other 
Asian countries and In Mexico where the new btm technology was applied, 
Thii has enabled India to n>ove rapklly ftom a food defkn sicuaikn to a 



Auleursrechtelijit besciiermd materiaal 



A WhirtwindofChmngt • 19 

sliuaHon of nuiglnil surplus, but hcic agiin diere hav« been unforturute 
sodal corscqucDca. The system favours ihc medium and ]»rgc sale iaimei 
uid hjs thus Ifd to thr di^bccmenc of pemcn fumcrs and the m^don 
Erom runl ams to die ddes. The energy Intensive nature of Ciccn 
Revoludon Agiiculture may also cause Rnandal dlfftoildes for f^iTncis j^ d\ 
ptJMf coiutrtue tQ t\it. 

[n odier paiu of che world and, once agakn espedaUy in many African 
countries and in Latin An^iica, InsiifRclcni attention has b«n paid to 
agricultural development, Fzequeni droughts, growing numbers of human 
being; 3Tid dFii ma h, jndlonaTwajsor InEenidlconflKt&havcledtothceiosion 
of the resource bj?e jnd margin jlizcd large numbm of the runl poor. This 
again has deprived many people ol then land 3nd caused the rapid growth of 
ihecldcsJtIs In urban areu that disconiem and insurrection flare up so easily 
and hence govemnients have yielded to the temptadc«i of acccffding priority 
to the allocadon of scarce rcsoLirces to projects of visible benefit to dty^ 
dwellers. As i leiult of dx Edw priority given to agriculture in miny African 
and Latin American countries, these coniinents are likely 10 continue fadng a 
considerable^ food deficit for many years to come. 

A further myth of developmeni lore Is that ihe benefits of economic 
development (rkklc down from d^ rich to the poor. This is also a 

qucidonible dxoiy, Ln India, foi example, while thcGtccn Revolution ^^^ 

provided fix>d in plenty, there Is llide evidence of a commensucate 
diminution of hunger, malnuEriOon and poverty in rural areas. 

It \iAi been customary in ceCenl deCides to ClaSslfy the Courllrlea of the 
world into chree categories— the First World of the industrialized market 
economy countries, the Secood World of the state economy Marxist world 
and the Third World of die less developed countries. With the virtual 
colbpse of the state controlled economies, ihis categtHy now has lltde 
relevance and needs to be cast away, while the concepc of the Third World 
has already become almost meaningless because of the great divetsicy of 
economic condittons^ and potentialities that tbc term embraces. To bunch 
together Saudi Arabia and Sjngspote. ot Brazil, Botswana and Bangbdesb Is 
absurd, Irj that generalized statement! of Third World problems have linle or 



1. A slmir^i ilHiJtIon \-, found (n ihtsc-tailfd NTCs ^Nc^^'ly iTidu^ir^liz^d Coviritrinl Thf 
iczm tWili hji brcn u^cd cucniLdlly To dcsoibc [he ^pccucul^ dcveloprriencs m Hung 
Kong. Singapore. Soud^ Koiei and TilwiDr >Jdw tnhrr oHiDtiin ludi is IndonnLi, 
tfCilaTda and Thailand are also lollowlng die sacnc padi. Laigc developing (ountrm 

intludliie: Erjzll. Tndjj jnd Mffcitn with ao irnJunrul hix crejird ynrs jro aie jJso 

progieiiiflg tipidlv in [he uSi li nC* [cChnObSiti bul ire. m quite diflcicnt oicgoria. 
ThiB we bvf j sp«iriim o* dlffersH sTa^ of hidusuiilinuonr 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



20 • The First Gio6ai RnvtulHrn 

no rdfvancT lo indii/jduj] ascs. ii is now mor« popubr to itlet to the 
drvrLopcd couniirlca as [be North and the undi^idirvelapNrd counuics a$ the 
Saudi. Despite the gco^phicj] anamaly of IncLudliig Australia In the North. 
chiB nomenclature makesmore sense. The Nmth South ac^iaUoD, bo wever, 
hampen the new effom to regard the problems oF development In die 
r^caial a wcU js Id die global comot of the lapldly chanetng world 
economic system. 

Recent years have seen the growth of indebicdness in a number of 
countries, in die cases of Argentina. Brizil and Mextco this has reached 
dangerous proporDcau and whjlc man y lending agencies hivc wrincn oEE dieir 
hifi dcbu, ^ dxWhci^ iomz :csthedulLng hds al^tn plitc, ihz debt 
situation lemalns grave- botb for ihc development possibilities of die dcbiot 
counirfesand for thesiabillty of the world (natidal system. ]n Africa , while 
IndeblcdnesiS is much lowei in absolute terms th^n in Latin America, the 
debt - servicing biuden Is ciippJing. At a time when capital flow has turned to 
meet the needs of the East European countries, less developed debtor 
countries see llttk hope of an alLeviiilan of dicic difficult situation. Moat 
extraordinary of all is the ^ct that the UEiited Siaus has allowed itself to 
acquitcanlrternal debt of list 4. J trillion llD89),greiterth}n that of art^odiCT 
countrf in the world. This remains a dark stormdoud on the economic 
horizon r 

The giave problems of world poverty, aggravated by population growth, 
could well give rise to great disharmony on i world scale, from which the 
industrial countrirt cannot hope to escape. Et Is in their own self ^[f if ^t duE 
ihe rich countries must take a new. powerfuUnd radically different approach 
<o the pioblems of world development. With the metamorphosis of East 
Europe triggering the great demand for capital and for managerial and 
Eechnoioiglca] Inflows, there Is a real feat thai the needs of the poor countries 
will be forgotten or relegated a still lower prtorily than at present. This would 
be dangerous noc only Ux the poot countries, but fcr the world as a whole. 

Thi pcpuJ^twn txpitavm 

The problems of most of the developing countries are giesdy exacerbated 
by the population explosion. World pc^ulatfonn now just over ^ billion (from 
LE billion in 1900) is expected to teach A. J billion in the year :CK10, and oveiS.^ 
hillion in 20?5, according to median UN projections. India's popubllon, for 
«KamplF. would Enc^ea^e from 81Q million now. lo 1446 million, Nigrria'a 
from 105 to ysl million, and Mexico's from S5 to 150 million. By tar the gicater 
part of populaUon growth will take place in the less developed regions of the 
world. Indeedn In the Industilailzed regions demographic growth Is very slow 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



diid In some axs even rvgadvp, pming to dipsr countries i wholly difftrcnt 
son of dl^loiltlcs iswciatcd wiih jgcmg popuUuom. 

The wotld's Jggrcgjtc population is incrcuing it pitscnl b;^ one million 
posons every Four to five iLyi {(he reference hcie Is lo nel gtowih, dial \i 
births minus deaths] . Aldiough Feitillty rates mc bcglEUiIng lo fall In some 
regions, bwausc fJ the vety low [ftcdlanag^ of rhdr populations, the dally 
mouse In absolute terms will be greiter In ifae ye^r 2000 than it Is today 
because of the population explosion- ]n these circumstances It Is difficult to sec 
how [he necessary food, housing, health c^re jnd educailonjifacilltfflan be 
[KOvided, 

PopuLiDon growth isouinripping food production. Izi the yejrs pteceding 
the recent drtnight, grain prtxluciiDn in sub-Saharan Africa was inaeasing by 
about L6pcrcentpci annum -with population growing by 5.1 pel centr while 
in some countries which hive the worst food shortages, pe: capita ptoduccton 
has fallen by ibout 2 per cent per annum ovei the last decade. Funhermore. 
population growth Is providing in inaoslngly Utgc woikforcc mainlr in 
underdeveloped places whae thcr-e ks already acute unemployment, 
poverty, and extensive underemployment. Thecreadom of millions t)f new 
pbais indeed tme of ihemtHtfotnilddblelash^ie^Lilting from the population 
explosion. 

April 16. I9&ti - Chernobyl. USSR : ^ accident at the nuclear power station at 
Chernobyl destroys the reactor and projects S tons of fuel (or 50 millbn cuiies 
of tjdt^tlon) Into die atmcnpherc. A ladloactlvc cloud hangs ovet Eutope. 
especially affecting (Jkrairv and Byelorussia (ttSSRj, Finland. Scandinavia, 
Poland.Cernuny, and France. Immediate consrquerxres: ^^perstmsotflaally 
declared dead ^?Q from r^diautm). 150,000 people evacuated, IIP villages 
permanently abandoned, 4W people leriously wounded, AOO.CtO people 
exposed 10 radiation of whom n have become permanent invalids, jnd 7.000 
to ?^ .000 people expected to develop cancer In the coming years. Food crops 
arkd animals are exposed to radiation for several yean all -over Europe- In 1M0, 
approximately i million per^^ns are still ur>der medical supervlston. with 
reports of at leut two persom dying every day as a consequence of thfEiiidcar 
accident, 

March 24, IPS^-PrirKe William Bay. Alaska; American oil lanlLer S.S. Ejan 
Wt^z runs aground, spilling 40.000 tons of oil and pollunng over L744 
kilometres of the coast, kill]rtg 480 otters and 33,126 birds. USS l.Qbilbon are 
Spent to clean up die ^lll and to pay rampc nuuon to Ei&hing villager for the 
damage caused 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



22 • The First GUthHlR^vGiutvm 

DfCf mber J. IPS*— BhopaL India; a kak ai th; Union Carbide pcsncMle 
huxaty polscnu the Jlr with methyl Isocyandic kjlling ^MX) pcopJc dnd 
wounding J00,COQ, of whom 50,000 remain permdncndy di^blcdr 

A sulking faCure of the pedod under levlew is widc^pccad jbrn-i ai the 
dclcHotatlon of both the ruial and the uiban envtronn^nE^ Environmental 
palluGon was a coneqaence of ihc Induscri^l RcvolutJon and w^^ well 
documcnicd In nlnneenth century UienturCp wtdi Dldkc's 'dark Sauoic mllb' 
of indistrial Englmd, the ped wup fogs ind the diJty ilvcrs. A degree of 
poHulkin control was gradually established in moH countries through 
legislation, h'll heavy pollution of this sort persists in easlein Euic^ as the 
hettiagc of the MitxUt cccMXimy, 

By l%S.htnvever, a new cofKem hid surged. Industiyh^d become much 
more sophlsdcdted. its output had diversified enormouiiy. wld^li» products, 

bypoduct&H and wastes, in many oscs toxk and ixm biodegradable , 
dispersed everywhere In the blo$phctc. In addition, the ItKteasc In world 
population arxJ Its concentratkui In huge titles, as well a& the masiJve 
consumptltm tifgotxls and rruterlaU. was marking It more and more diEficuh to 
dtspose of sewage and loJid wastes. It had been assumed until recently that 
benevolent Narure would forever a b»rb and neutralize the w3?tf p-oduo^ of 
sodelyspewed into die air jnd deposited in the soli, the river? and the oceans. 
This as&umptltm no longer holds good; we appear lo have crossed j critical 
threshold, beyond n^tch the human Impaci on the envifonineni threatens to 
be desnuctlve and possibly Irreversible. 

Public cocKcm was uouscd by die pub]icjuoo of popular books such i^ 
Rachel Carsons' S&ai SfitH^^ and Schumacher'^ SnidFT ji l^auiifuV. &y ]06t, 
icacOons became vocal widi conservationist movements appearing 
everywhere*. As public pressures grew in the industrialized countries, 
governtrKnis took action. EnviEonmentaJ polkfcs and envliotimcnal 
tnlnimiu mushroomed ind, since polluilon l9 no tcspcoer of political 
boundaries, environmental issues reached ihe forums rrf Inietnatlonal 
<Dnferences. This resulted in much Impravemcnt; nuny of the grosser kJruis 
of pollution have been eliminated as a rcsuk of legislative acckm^ The 
adoption of principles such as 'the polluter pays' has forced Irtdus try to accept 
a new social responsibility; rivers have been cleaned up and air pollution 
reduced, while everywhere local groups are vigilant with regard to 



1. CjrsDin, IW. 
I SchumitfwT, W^ 

},Thr United KiaomCodcnHC on the HununEnviioninenn in SiKUtdmtntnL'Q^'wtfi 
brbdma rb nml. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



A WbirivindofChat^ • 23 

devclopmcnEi which mlf^hr chrcsicn the f nvironmcnr , samcdmn advising 
people with useful [(tresighl u)d conunon seme. Jnd n other omci dciJng 
with Euutidsm. 

An InuiAQdg development has been the wajr in which cot)Ccmcd publtc 
gtoupd have come logctheria oke dliect political KOoa. The rl&c of (he green 
[tarries ha^ been useful tn forcing the rrsdiuanal parties lo take the 
envlronmenul issue? senouily, although ills difficult la foiCKe J Usdr^Tok 
foi <hem,or,fDr thai marter for any single muepjrty. The 'green movement'H 
useful ds It is, nay he In^Jvertently dlvertUig publk anentlon frotn the 
lot^ cettn and nxjre seiiaus environmental Issues, which wc sh^TI diBcuss 
latct, by Impressing d)cman in the street with proof of e;isj|y appiecjaud, 
immedTately visible, but stilcdy local damage. 



Annililljline dll ihac'^ m^df lo i grevn thou^Eht in a green shide. 



Until lecendy nwst fbnns of environmental detctlotaUon have been 
es^enrf3]|ylaealandeouldbe-ellm1natn]byloc3hndn3t[onalaet]on,aia<tni 
cciuinly, but one which could be bomerflawevei.envijonniental threats of 
a new magnitude fuvc now been Identified, which demand quite a different 
approach. These have to do with a numbci of macro-polLutkin phenomena 
which ate global In scope and beyond the capacity of individual countries to 
cljininace. At present ihere arc fbm promlnenc sons of mdoo pollution., 

Di^/imffir of tttU m^Unca tnU lAc minnwunt. These loxic substinces 
consist both d non- btodegrddshlechemiali jnd radioactive wastes. Initial 
concern was aroused by the discovery of the widespread diffusion of DDT, 
which was detected even in perfguln eggs In AntarcOW- This suggested 
that the DDT molecule might find ics way Into the human food chain and 
accumulate to a threshold of danger. Subscquendy, many other roi:lc 
materials which arc widely diffused have' been idcndfled and it has been 
pointed out that viEulendy loxtc matenals may penetrate Into the nuJn 
aquifers of the world within a few decades . 

Accumulation of tojiic wastes, difficult to dispose of locally, have 
toduced a number of industrialized countries to e:ipart their argoes of 
poison' to poor counties In Afha which ate willing to x[\ discharge 
nghts. This Is an Immoral trade, and its continuation will be to the 



]. Scvcnuxmh cenlur? Caroline poei. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



24 • The Fmt Global R^poiuatm 

dcirlmcrii not only irf die receWng country, but II wllJalwadvcndyaffHi 
Lhe whole world . Ai yCT, (here a no sansfaccory soltinan for the d[spo5al of 

radioactive wastes, whfchf bcciy^t of ih-C v^iy long haULfe of nuny 

ndjo isofopcSn demand cxticmel; long caaQliunent. 

Af^^fntJiH «/ luibi iiid (Ac dcitniitiiH if firinfi cati^ii i^ cifluenh. from die 
dilmnc^ of coal burning power sQUoiis, steel itilIIs, jnd no oa. Thli 
danger has bcoi lecognlzed for some lime now ^nd h^ resulted in 
inteiTiational complaints. For example, the [ikes and btests of eastern 
Canada suffer from the imoke of Industile? In PItabuig, and those of 
ScandfnavlafromtheaddgasesotthftictorleiliiThefngMMldlW^and 
die Ruhir Much can be done hcie on alexia] basis [lor imeEnduonal as well 
a& local results) by scrubbing Que gases, using low- sulphur oils and coals, 
and othei means, but It ts a costly and djfficuli buiincis. The process of 
acjdjEic^cion has not yet been fully understood, and dicrcmay be other 
agendes at work In iddiUon to fonnmlmtfon by effluenc. 

These s«jb^anccs are chosen (ai iheii extreme nabtltty under normal 
lerrstial condmons and used as aerosol propellants and In reftlgeratOTS^ 
UnfonuiHiclj, when ihey a^cai to rhe upper amiosphere they 
decompose under the influence of ht^-intenslty uhravloteL r^i^oots and 
release cblodne which attacks the stratospheric zone. The discovery , a few 
years a^, of large holes In the pfotecDve Dxane layer above Antarctica 
caused alann that this layer was being depleted of ozone and that this 
might c^usc jncreased ultiaviolct radjaiion a the e^iih's suifacer which 
would greatly increase the risk of skin cancer ard other diseases. TheCFCs 
were soon detected as the eulpriis. 

Intei^rtationi] ^crion was obviously nwMsary lo prevent furchft damage 
to theozone layer, and subsequent efforts to achieve thb suggest the type 
of International negotiation that will be necessary in othei and mote 
complicated cases In future. The smiaiion is essentiilly quite simple, since 
tbenumbcc of chemical plants pEoducingCfCs In the wmtd is quite small. 
The Montin] Confeicncc oi 13S9 succeeded In producing a gencial 
agreement on the nature of the problem and on iia solution, namely the 
development and use of dltcrnatLve piopelLants that are ozone-fhcndly , As 
a lesultn the use of CFCs may soon cease in ihe induJtdallzed counnlca , and 
research and development to thh end ts being actively pursued. The 
difficulty l&[haisomet}f die poorer cau[tmc&,&iji;h^a]ndLd and Chin^, have 
recently started up G^ manulacture in response Co the national need f« 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



A WhtriwindofChan^t • 25 

ext^ixJjng Ec^lgeratlon tighu. Tr is diFFicult to cjipea such countries to 
abandon recent invesimeni ^nd start agin withoui external i-ompcnsa- 
tkm, and ihis problem has dius not yci been solved. 

Mml ititnQLin^ RUTd-piQuUn i^ iai: tAe a-ctlUi iPCfiAffior rffetr' which Is 
Increasing the tempcratutc oo die earth's suitKC. This effect concerns the 
extent to which ccitaln comtliucnts of the atniosphere mirict the 
renecttan of soiar tadi^Tioiki Erom [he surtice of the earth Into outer spice, 
thus trapping die hf Ji The pioportkms of the nuni constituent ga^cs of m. 
axygen ind nitrogen, seem to have remained constant during die past 
mllicnid. and jiE present iife processes ate regulated by this. Howeveir 
other gases which exist in much smaller concentrations and were Formeriy 
referred to as 'trace gases' control the greenhouse effect. Since the 
Industrial BcvoiuUon, the proporUon of these gases in the atmosphere ha^ 
jncreased. The roosi impottani of diese, carbon dioxide, has increased by 
25 per cent, oxides of nttrogen by 19 pet cent, and methane by 100 per 
cent. Other ga^s In die aunostJ>ere, such as our noiotious minmade 
CFCs, aiso add to the effect, ai docs terrestlal oionc. Concern about the 
consequences of dungc^ bruu^t about by the greenhouse effect drose 
from observanon of the Increase In carbon dioxide concentration. The 
influence of the othci ttKe gaaca was leallzed quite leccndj^r It wa» 

r^oilc^ thii the propoiiiDn of carbon dic^iilde in die atmospherf haj 
Increased more slixe die JndustilaJ Revolution than In the previous sixteen 
thousand yeais, due to die combustion of fossti fuels such as oil and coji 
which ate thf bibj^of IndustriallzaClon.Thls Increase is also the result of a 
reduction In Nature's capacity to absorb the gas through photosynthesis, 
because of thf pxtensjvr ellmlMtton of the nopial foieso. 

A number of different and highly sophlstlated gbhal climatic models 
Indicate that adoubllngof the prevloiisequLlibriamconceniration of carbon 
dioxide would resuU In an average increase in rbe surface temperature ol the 

planet of between J .5"c and A5X. It ts extremely difficult for die woild 

public to appreciate that this Invisible and apparendy harmless gas which 
bubbles up from our whisky and ;oda or Coca Cola, and which we outselues 
exhale, Isi potential ciimlnitorofouipiospcrkiyindbfesiyles. Assuming dui 
die pieseni Industrtal practice of burning fossil fueU continues, saiuraoon 

point might be reached In fonyto forty-fivc years Incicislng piopoitlons of 



I. Although [lie "gicwihouif effect' It fflJl j conEiDiTnljl lubieci ind abol^^TC ccitajniy 
about iti eilitencf i^ill not b« fiOBlbte for Unthci ten jna. if lE e aHiRrmed by -Jui 
time. wIjkIi li vciy llfceir, ii rtrlll be uo liic ro do drjdiing itnji n. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



26 • The Fim Gbtal RrpoiMjon 

the othir grtfnhoui* ga^w makt the problem ^nl] movt foiwphaiMJ, 

Great uncertainty sdlL exists with cegard ic thji problem, cspccjally the role 
of the oceans in jbsoibmg cacbon dioxide, and la the possible ^K^sicnce of 
<i\hv sinks for the gas. However., drcumstanual evidence Is now so strong 
that the probabtliiy has to be taken seriously. The probable consequences of 
nrth- wirm [ng will be discussed in the nen chapter, but suffice ][ to say here 
that rhey ate man; and seiloiu. li nanoits avoid Qkln^ dctjon luiill the 
tonsequcnces of the gteeohouse effect become obvious, it may be too late to 
reverse the process, with dj$asitous results On th? other hai^dn if action Is 
taken now and the onset is slower Than predicrcd, cmrmou^ coit& will have 
been inturrcd This brcoma, Therefore, a ctac caw of the need (o develop 
methods oE man^ment and dca^ion- making m uncertainly 

VVe must return brtefly to die question of the eJimlnatkin of coplcal 
foints, which, in addition to Jtscontrlbuttonto the greenhouse eEfecE, is to be 
decried for many other reasons. It generates local and regional dlnuDc 
changes, causessoilercKicin and dciwnstream flooding, and frequendy loves 
soils which are unable to sustain agiicultute. En the ease of the Amazon Basin, 
especially, it fnvoives the «dnctton of innumerable plant and animal qiedes 
ara flme wbw the pt«er«tkw of gewflcdiveriliy U oi imflwwe lm^mn«. 
In addition. It catises great human suffering and cuftural loss as foresi peoples 
aredisplacedordieout due to their mabiliiy to adj usi to a r^w v/iy of lile. 
We must also mennon the problem of the Increasing ^ardty of fuclwood 
jn reany countries Jn Africa, Asia and eUcwhcic The bunni^ of wood and 
charcoal sdll temalns the main domeidc cnagy source for a high pro^rtlon 
of the rural population. The gachering of ^el is generally d woman's task. 
Widi demographic growth, accessible wood has become increashigly scarce 
and In some cases, a dail^ task which formerly took a couple of houts now 
demands sm. Shortageof wood encouiage^niral populations to bum animal 
dung is fuel, diuf leading to the Uck of d^d; ndiuial ki^ixi fn crops and 
thereby to the dcierioiation of die soil In many tioph:il dtles, fuel wood has 
become exorbitant ar>d households have tiirr>ed lo using kerosene fur their 
domesdc needs. This necessitates the expetidlture of scarce bteign currency, 
as do changing focjdhablu. As Lester Brownj the president of d)eWorkl watch 
Institute. USA, puts It, nuny cities in the poorer CDuntrJesaiclJterilly living 
from ship to mouth', 

Tht s^vafia of hifiinfiiimk^m 

Our present society is built materially on highly successful technological 
development. Ever since tiie onset of the Industrial Revolution, with its 
replacement of human and animal power f^rst by the steam engine and later 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



A WhiHwind of Change • 27 

by cl^ctiiticy. productiviiy hs increased D«pltc rarly fcara, this has led co 
the giowih of markets , inacascd cmpbymcnc, and rhc spread of pcosperlcy , 
At fir sc, dicic df vclopmenii wcic milnly based 00 cn^rlcal bvcntton Wtth 
the emergence of chemical 3nd ckctiital industries, however, the main 
Impuke to developtr»:n[ has come from the discoveries in dK sdenttElc 
liboraTorifs. The success o\ lechnologtcal d^veloprntm jnd ihe role of ihr 
appbcabon of scientific methods In detetmtning die outcome of [he Second 
World War led podt-war govemmencs and theli tnduscrjes id give massive 
resource support Co sdendfictesejcch jndche jpplicjUQn of tcs discoveries Jd 
tedmology. The le^d umc h^om ^Cieodhc discovery, thitxigh applied reieardi 
and technlaJ deuek^pmeot, to pioductkjn Is long. Hence duting [he first part 
of the peilod under review we saw mainlv Improvements and novelucs o( a 
relad-vely traditional ktnd. Later, bteakrhroughi cxiciured and completely 
new types of techiKslogy ippcaied, especially booi the discoveries made in 
solid -$tate physics and molecular biology, 

TfieapplliatlDnaofthcncw.jtdvariccdEfiihnologie^ jce now ^ tvidcspri^ 
thai we can only present a very superficial Indicaoon of ihetr slgnl&carw. The 
ubiquitous application of mkroelectronlcs Is now obvious in bciorlcsp ofhccs 
and shops. The silicon chip microprocessor with Its low cost and extreme 
miniaturlzatiot^, mahes It poisible to provide a brain and a n^emory to any 
piece of equipment devised by rraan. Furthermore, microelectronic 
lechntqueswoikwellwithmanyotheitypes of advanced technology such as 
hologFaphy. satellite use, liquid crystal technology, and gbss-ftbre optics. The 

results ippeat In an enormous variety of mlcroeleoronk devices iind s^dg«ts 

of ever tncrcaslng sophtsOcailfm. Computers, when first devebpcd duimg 
the World War Jl occupied whole rooms widi bulky equipment. These are 
mw miniaturized, much ^er, more reliable, cheap and widely jvailable^ 
MEcroclectionJcs has penetrated deeply Into livlustiy ^t every stage, from 
dcjign to packaging. Automadon and robodndon ate inodifying Indusoial 
processes and structures, and are ellmlruting^^ngerous, dirty and tepetldve 
tasks, creadng the need for new skdls and clallen^g educational and 
tralnmg traditions. Ar>d this Is only a begirtnlngi new generations of 'smart 
robots' are appearing whldi can see and feeE^ emphasis Is shifting from 
jmprovements in hncproducdon towards integtatcd systems of man [rtacture; 
new (ypes of equipment are bemg devdsed through •mfdiaaanm, a combined 
approach whtch brings together electronic and advanced mechanical 
techniques. These advances are rapidly periccradng all sectors of the economy 
and constitute the basil of the pan- Industrial sodely. Whether these advances 
wJll be fuliy responsible for change or net depends on the evolution of many 
of the other ch;ingcs we have described. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



28 • TbeFintGioJaUBjToiuiwn 

Katonubc banking and tht C3&hlfss sodcty vc already hect, viHic 
aulonuled stock exchanges and financU] tmufer systems operate ^11 coo 
qulcklj' someames; the computer has invaded every type of research acavitj 
horn hisiory to 2\tcah design , 

Nowhere has ihc impact of elecuonlci been more marked than in 
cominuniaO(m&, Trkphonc ^^tcm& have impcoved immej&uTibly The use 
of telefax hisfpread at an eitaaardindry late, elecdonlc maki systems hdve 
prolifi=raiedii]dvldeD confeicndngisnowposslble. MostdTamadcofall has 
been die steadily ad vjni:ir]g influence of television. This powerful aim of the 
media has CHicndcd wuildwidc during the prcsem period; it Is employed In 
thctondldonTngofpopuladonscom^ethfrr^iccqitthracisofdiaacors, and 
used for educational purposes, for the broadca^tjng of news and oplnkms 
{of[«n chdiacterized by distortion ai^ triviahzation) and, above alh for 
enteraknmeiit. Its Influence on the political system is now cnormous^ 
Eltctoraces are now swayed by projeclions on television of the charisma of ihe 
andiddin oi by :hc abxncc gf sudi publidty. On die othcf hdnd, Lve 
transmisskm of parliamentary pnxeedfngs has, in a number of counoie^n 
exposed the triviality of debate ai>d che banality of political personalities^ 
This has contributed to the present lo^s oF pubUr confidence in the opei^tion 
of the democratic sTsccm, by demonsttaang that soeallcd parhamcncary 
debates merely consist of liie contnved ccxifrontatlon of voteseelting 
political parties. 

A word must be added here, concerning the slgni^cance of liie other 
^vanclng main line of technology, nami:ly bioJogy, whjch \m been 
transformed by the understanding of the functions of DMA, the unravelling of 
the genetic code, and ihe odvi discoveries -of molecular biology. These 
developmenis are much less visible to the pubUc than those in 
micioclectronto, bui arc equally profound and Important for the future of 

ihf \nanm tKt. Many difficult ethical quesdom have surfaced, especially 

with :egard to the potential manipulation of human genes Already genetic 
engJnecEing has produced many Important advances in medicine, and many 
more are CEpecled. Creat advances h^ve been nude in the modificauon of 
plant and animal species in the area of protection agatnst diseases and changes 

of climate, a» well a \n tncicving agriculiutal production ^nd modifying the 

products. Unfortunately, these dramatic genetic modifications are llXcly to 
prcxluce considerable improvement in regions whcie they are least required; 
for instance, increases in milk yields^ initially at Least, will occur In pbce& 
where there are already abundant reserves of milk. It tj somewhat troubling 
tonotethattecent][idgemeni3 make it possible toobiain ptent rights for new 

genetically ptoditced species. 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



A WMHrntuLofChar^ • 29 
Waridjinana 

The economJc uansfoiirubon of [be East European counties, including 
the USSR, requires quick action ii cconomtc ccJlapse Is to be avoided. 
ftciectJon of dtf Marxisc ly^icm and ronverjton to a nurlLet economy is not 
easy. Not only musrneiv ^trucuirea be created, but endrelych^ngnfamtudcs 
on die part aE chf workforce snd msnsg^ment are n^ cesssry br adapQUon to 
a cotnpeUdve system, Cuai^nteed eznpJoyment In the old system Inevitably 
mejnt low productivity, while lack of Incendve inhibited all Innovadori. 
Consequently lb«e countries now find themselvea burdened wtth debts, 
highly polkdng ^ciorkcs wich obsoli^te equipment, a shortage of capicil, and a 
Uck of Enodem managcmcni skills. Sodal and psTchologJal adjuE[in«n[ will 
be nccenaryn for eKamflc. m fsdng rhc ucihmiliar situation o\ tnasstue 
unemployment CoiuidcnbJe r^xteradi help will be needed, notonly in the 
pfDvisio II of capital, but al» in discfonn of technical aixJ managerial assistance 
and many othtr aspects of free market developmetU. In the case of unified 
Gcnniny, the Federal Bqiubllc will be able to furnish East Germany with 
capital, managerial know-how and training, but it Is unlikely thai die 
ttansfbimaDon of Eist Geimany wiLI be achieved wtthoui a great deal of 
Individual and social h^rd&hip, 
Hopes have been raised In eastern Europe about the prosperity that wltl 

flow from the adopdon of the market economy While thoc hopes arc 

largely justified, ai least In the long run. It Is Imponant diac market forces 
should not be regarded jstheonly^genislndieacqolsitinnDtabeEieE life, and 
that their limits should be understood well, as mendoiricd earUer. Ideals 
should not be cast out Indiiccinnjnjtely; It is necessary to retain some of ihe 
more positive aspects of sodabsm. Odmwise there could be a luddish against 
capjUllsm. 

Pol iitcal power in the modem world \% no longer controlled mainly b; die 
power and relaUve sophistication of ^rmainenn, but is lEicreaslngly 
determined by financial power. Indeed, In recent history, excessive 
exper^lture on aimaments las proved ruinous to the two superpowers, 
while the two countries prevented from rearming after defeat In the Second 
World War are those wirh die largest su rpluses. In addldon, it Is detrimental 
for thr big powers that theit tndusincs depend only on the stJie market and 
donolthereforebeneftt from the normaJ&ee trading conditions dsac exist in 
odier councrtcs- 

In the mid to late 1980s, financial fieniy gripped the world markets, 
Fininclal arxl currency exchange speculadon, aided by computerized 
communicadons, became a ^me completely dlvofccd ftom CCOnomlC 
reabty. Mergers between firms Tnushroomedn aimed at immediate gains ai>d 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



unrdated ro loAgcemi ^ffidcoey. Imtdcr b^iiiig ind otbcr foiim of 

corruption flourished in pbcca hUherto leguded u ethkJL)' relJibte, 
Eccmomlc gjln wa& ccvKdvfd ofinrennsof ^aodai o^actiociig raihet than 
innouauve and compcdilvc dcvcJopm cm, often la Isolation froin the ph^iicil 
r»]liy undf [lying flEUiKe (bi example, cdL pdce was determined by the 
QTWla laihci thjn by [hf jvalhblllry oi oil, «se oE exuicilon, etcj The 
cDiiaequcnces of such pracdces gave rise to fears of a stock market collapse; 
they aim reptesented a fbghc fiom re^l industry to finuidal LblJy^ Ftnandal 
imablbty l» sail a JouKe of ^nou^ lurbulcncc withjn the pioblcmatiquc. 

ThflessofpaiHti 

There appears (o be 3 general loss of the values which had previously 
ensured the cobecence of society and the confonnancf of IndividuaU ^a ks 
norms. In some places diis has been the result of a loss of ^ih In religion and 
the ethical values dut all religions promulgate^ In odier cases It Eiems from a 
loss of conf rdence in the pollOcal S^S^n:^ Ipd 4k>^ who operate bt. Yetapln, 
the welfare state, desplie all the social advantages and security it confers, 
seems to have reduced the sense of nTponsiblllcy andselfrellaEKeof many 
Individuals. All thlsfusledb>a[ihKr«ashigr«tKtlonofthcdcdiiMisflf rhe 
majority by minorities, often aggravated by a sense of social Injustice or 
exploitation. However, there are a numberofc^rlng organizations which look 
after diosc who need help. These signs of die existence oE tradlllot^ values 
snll remain modesC- 

Thc&f ^d many other causn hive Erd rotbe sixiaE indj^cJpJjnc, vditddllstn 
and violence that have become a tradernack of our ag<r In cases of rea] or 
Imagined political peisecution or of radal discrimination, violence can breed 
terrorism, which attracts malcontents and fanatics. Such people have taken 
great advantage of technology thai provides ifiem wil:h new and effective 
cxplnives, accurate delayed tjmj[ige:cpEciSLvedevjLesandiemoteti]ggeimg. 
[n some cases training In terrorism ^nd sabotage, and equipment may hdve 
been provided b^ rogue oriuntries. These are all manlfi=siatians of the general 
malaise ofcontemporarysodeiy that can. In feci, be dealc with as such, in cases 
where a widespread sense of deep Injustice is ^bc cause. 

The HOP pit^ffnes 

A different category is that of crime, violerKe and coercion organized for 
monetary g^n 01 political power. The classic case 1^ that of the M^fla. Still 
more dangerous has been the emergerKe in recent years of the well- 
organized drug trade , carried on by the Mafia and other similar bodies, which 
has gained enormous power and attacked whale governments with terrorist 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



A Whirlwind of Cha»^ • 31 

Tactics. Tt is s jid thjt [He cotal eariitngs ^om th? drug aadr exceed even ihit of 
thf oil liidusD'y. The diug nfiwork, Etom che cultivator through the drug 
barons who operate chemical plants for refining drugs, to the couriers aihd 
dIstiibuEors, I& all pervasive and al dmes seems invuhicrable. The human 
misery and disintegration caused by drugs Is enormous and . js we are aboui to 
ind[cate, ir sptfadi ledul disrties The growth oF this evil, which shows no 
sign of slowjng down, has bec:jn:^e 3 mattei of deep coTKem.bul there 15 great 
unceralniy a, to how lo attack it. The hnaJ solution would be Co reduce 
demand dvon^ trejDnoituid education, but dils 1$ vcr>^ dlffJccik In view of 
the wide dlxprrtionoF drug- rakecs So attempts »re being made coellminaCf 
[he powcE centres of [he industry jnd Eo compcmaic chc cu1eivi[q[& by 
lUowing them to produce food crops. 

Fin-ally we must point out the existence of the recendy discovered deadly 
disease known as AIDS ^acquired Immuno-defiaency syndrome). Tiiggercd 
bytheH[V virus, itis a tCKuaUy transmitted disease which is also passed on by 
diuguscn through toiiEJtnjnatcd nerdlcs. furthermore, infeacd pregnint 
womenhjveavery high chaTKe of giving birth to babies who will carry arhd 
probably develop the virus. bi the eaily stages of its hrscory. the vtrus ttaa 
tiansmfttedtoTeedversorhloodnansfuKlons In which die donated blood h^d 
not been checked for the virus. An infected person may cany the virus for a 
□umbci of years without any iH-eSects, but it then usually devrLops into 
AIDS, which attacks the Immune system and causes death through one of 
many diseases which the patient, with a damaged immune system. Is unable 
U fighl. Al present, progress has been made toward; a cure and new 
tieatmcnD aimed at alleviation of suffeiing a ULtcnsun of Hie arc being 
tested wi[h erxoun^tn^ resuhs^ 

AIDS appears to have already reached pandemic proportions in some 
African countries and Its global spread is greatly feared- Apart from tbe 
mo[[alky rj[c jnd leriLble human iuffeung involved, the cose of deatmeni 
2tA of education campaigns a a great burden to these countries where ^ 
nxmopabzcs hospital accommodation and diverts attention and effort from 
die cure ot con[iol of tnalaria. biJhama aod other debilitating disease?. 

AiaQme when medfclne has made mch extraordinary piogtess bath In lO 
[hcnpeuticandprrventjvf capacju», AID5 reminds ujth^f in jpkc of ill [hJs 
progress, man reTiHtns vulnerable in the area of both physical and mental 
health. This deadly disease, agamst which vaccination is ineffecuve becaiue of 
[he mutatton of certain vlruscSn <]cnu>mtiates [hat at least for the Ume being, 
the permanent stiuggk for health, despite some wishful thinking. Is as 
unavoidable as death. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



2, Some Areas of Acute Conc^m 



From our survey of recent global changes- Ilis doi duE cheie is considerable 
mteiaction between the vailois element of (he piobkmaOque . Popukdon 
growth In a poor counny , ior Insiancc, means ihji mof e food has to be grown, 
which in lum will put prrs&urc on soil ind waif i r«ouif«. Itihr food has to 
be imported, it means the diversion of scarce hacd cunency icserva Erom 
othrrareasoFdevelopmeni. Again, a large poputationu^lll have an Impici on 
che environment, leading perhaps to the eEcessive cutting down of tiecs for 
fuel, with the social consequences that wt have desciLbed. 

This dupia will deal with »mc of die mosi uigcnt indtenal ptobkm^ 
wh^ now appear to be threatening humanity, and espcci^lljr that part of the 
problem^tique, consisting of the Intertwining factors of populatfonn 
enviranmeiK, food aiMJ, energy. 



The^njvrh afhwaan ncanry 

A central feature of the global situation Is the enormous increase In the 

totality of human activity during die procnr fmcury. which has neccBarily 
led to a huge rise in ihc demand for raw materials and energy Much of this 
increase is due, ofamrse.lothespectatiiiar growth of the world populaOon 
during thi^ peEiod. whose numbers wiU be added to In the ve^i^ ro come by 
cohort after cohort of new inJubitanta. Some people' ^rgue diat fertility has 
bc^un Lo dcaciK in ill pans of die world- Accordiog uj Uni^ Ndtioni 
estimates, the level of fertility has gone down from an average of 6,1 chlLdien 
per woman inl065-1970to).Qin 1985. The cultural obstacles to demographic 



I CtvndH. iDftT 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



SemeAroBofAatUCimam * 33 

cbngf jrr considfntil? u)d cbcy £111 delay chc ^pcctcd chaAg«s bp Crne ar 

two dccadcj. but they t:in do no more In the end thjn slow down in 
incviQble trend which is laigdy atttibutabic to modernization. The issue is 
not whether FcttJilty will go down, but when and jt what rate. 

All the Sime, even i\ fcrtillcy were to slow down drutkally. ihe 
demographic thrust contained in the jge pyi^mid ts such th^f population 
growth will condnue on Its present course for rruny decides lo come and thi; 
will require some iiKJactous InnovaDons Ln deveTopmenl stialegles. 

There Is sw even more powerful factor responsible lor the growth of 
hum^n jcilviLy, namely the increased per capita consumption that economic 

growth haj xiiiAt po$3thlf and which hai rcdpoDcaUy been the nimdus for 

dial growth- As demonstcjied by the pcoliEer^on of mass-produced gocds 
coinlngftom thebctorlesof thelndusDiallzed world, we live In. a consume 
society. In Europe, before the Industrial Revolution, per captla consumption 
was lltdedlfferenlfromlhatof many of the less developed counoies today. 
Now the dvcngc pci aplQ c^jn^umpoan of maLciidh dnd cticigy \i ibout 
Forty tiiiKs greater In the North thui in the Icbs developed countries of the 
South. At iti extreme, the dtspariCy may be more than 1130:1. This Is not only a 
reflccijon of soda] tntusbce, but an indicadon of the Increase In our 
exp4oltation of Nature^ 

Compounding popubbon numbers with average pei capiu consumption 
gives a tough indKaiionoI the [tJtalnv of human acitvlij. We esiimjie ihanhis 
may have Increased forty-fold during this century. Until now, consumption In 
the rieh countries has been ihe niJin componejii of this burgeoning aciiiJity, 
but in the coming decades, the demographic component will become 
Inaeasingly tmponani. 

In this picture of resource consumpUon, we must point out the criminally 
wasteful use of human, matecial and energy resources u&ed for military 
purposes, c^pcciiliy where such dctivitics aic a source of profit in ^onie 
developed countries. It Is difficult to understand how the people of the wodd 
have been willing to tolerate such waste in the face of hungei, poverty, 
dl$casc and underdevelopment, which ihem$ctv« brfedwarmdviolcnce.it 
ts not easy to be precise as to the Tnagniiudc c^ Tcsotirce consumption for 
military purposes, National financial cj^pendituitt oo defence do, howcrctf 
give some indicanon. The recent world total appcats to have been about U5 tl 
trillion In ml terms, a four fold Increase since (he end of the Second World 
War and a twenty five-fold escaladon since the beginning of the century. 
Figures ilone do not convey die magnitude of wasWn w some comparisons 
may be useful. It has beenpoincedouCH for imiiance, diat fer many ^ears, the 
military expenditure of the world has been comparable with the combined 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



34 • The Pint GloJralRnsiUwoH 

GNPs ai Hi the countries of Lann Amcnca and Africa together. Th^ annual 
budget of UnlceP is cquivaleniiowhai :hc world spends on dc£cn« jn four 
hours. The dimlraiioo of nnallpox under WHO^ guidajKC Kck Kn ycirs to 
achieve jrxlmit under US *ICCrn[J lion. Ic» than the cost of dcvdopfrig a jmall 
ali'io-ilrmlsitler We canonly hope diai dill wsitageoEcesoutces will now be 
redijgcd considerably a i rcsuLc ^r cjticn&ivc di^umdmcnL— and xhn the 
uvlng^willbcputiocoruirucuveuse, such js sjtisfyiDg dke csienual needs of 
the undcrpunleged. 

Constdcradon of resource consumpdcin antf Its disparities brlngj usro the 
concept of s-usuin J ble development wh:ch ^^ ^^lejcty ^nd opnmisucally 
expounded In the M^ndtland Report' on environment and sustainable 
developments [I Is doubtful that a sustainable global development can be 
achieved with the growth rate In the Indujtrlzcd countries Incrcasmg it the 
latc juggotcd in the lepori. A lusiaJnable' sodcty impTir^ thjc ihe society is 
based on a Iflngterm vision, in iha[ li must foresee the conseq aences of Its 
diverse activities, and must ensure thai thc^ do not bleak the cycles of 
tiatwil: IE has to be a mdety of conservation [t must avoid the adopfkin of 
muiuaJLy Irreconcilable objectives. ^iulLy lE must be a axieiy of socl^i iusQce, 
because great disparities of wealth or privilege will bceed destructive 
dtehaimony . In other words, the cotjccpt Is Utopian, but one that is well worth 
striving for. A sustatnable society would never arise within a wotld economy 
which relied a^Fididjf on the opccaticn of the ni^rhct forces* Important as 
thc5c may be foe the malntenarue ol vitality and creative Innovation. As. we 
merEEoncdcarilei.naarket forces respond unjqueiylo very short-tennslpitis 
ind 3it [io sure gutde uj long teim coTisidfiataon^. 

Having accepted the concept of sustaln^bility , theie remains die question of 
fbc general level of material affluence that can be sustained, and the 
dlspaiities between the rich and the poor — bodi within and between 
countries— which can be LoLeiated, taking into account social justice as welhs 
pjactlcaJ realiOcs. This is no pica for cidlttaridniam , indeed collective vilun in 
recent yeaii have preached a pseudo egaliiaiianism which has ineviiabl;^ 
clashed with the realities of human nature. 

[n seeking a normative approach to future world development En the 
present times of Eurbulence jnd change. It Is vital to discover whedier die 
present levels of material prosperity m the induiirialtied countries aie 
compatible with global sustj in jbiirtyn or, moie Imponuidy, whether a world 
economy driven by sQmulatecJ consumer demand can continue for long. This 



]. UnllnJ FJ^ncns (IntcnHborulj Clilldmi'i [EmngcrKf} Fund. 

7 Woiid Hc^lili OrgJiiLZJiiork. 

i. World Cornmbnn on EnvUonjnrnl ii\d EV^crcpm-nV. 19S7. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Som^ Anas qfAiXte Cmam • 35 

Is particularly pertinent In Fkc of peculation and t nvjconmenlal constmntM. Jl 
Is o[ couTK J conirovcrsiii qucsutxi which Jew, Ifan^n govetninents would 
have the courage Co hce. But IC U die vjcal quuuan o£ ±c pifsfni, and will 
evennully be forced on the polintians by The people. We believe thai 
consumfci^m in its present form cannof persitt, not only beaiue of 
consujintt but Iw d«per r«sons of human vj|ij« The shallow ^juifaaion^ 
of consumerism— kceplT!^ up wiih the |oneses'; '1 am what i own'— are 
incompactble with a decent human Ikte whkh needs i deep sense of scir 
respea. It leads through gteed to the pre^nt 'hurnjn mablse' die 
manifestations of which we will diescrlbe later. 

Wc must sacs5 thai wc ire not aduoating zero cconomk: growth, indeed 
we are convinced of the need to stimulate growth In the underdeveloped 
South. But tn the Industrialized North, with the evolution of the poit 
fnduEirul society, there seems to be a need Jot die growth of quality, 

GiahaJ Wanmn/i ami in itfiplkatipm 

In ihc present state of our know-ledge of the complex IntOiCGoni wjthui 
die planetary ^y^tem, die grecnhouK effect appears to be the most Immtncnl 
constraint on the extet^lon, or peihapa even on the survival of an economic 
system which has served the ilcbcr coimcrtes well for 2 long time. The 
consequences of die hcadjig upof the eardi's surface cannot yet be predicted 
with sny degree of ptccIsIOTh but diCTe seems to be agreement as 10 ibe 
general trends. 



W*vE always thcwElit of dlnute as an «t Of God, It [Equlres an 
emnnDus shift ti the way we think of the world and our pbce In H to 
urbdersiaruf ihat wehavpdfrGddy moved Into an en In wfilch wfm 
iclually responslbfe for managing cllmalk paranKters. Finally, sher 
y&dijotnijslakn, we jrvcorrlrhgiorecogiuze that continued economic 
prosperity b ri^ 10 ecoloekdl siew^rdshici, Therv b irsponsible profri 
m be mAiF In coring fcrr The planet, 

Poben RedfonI ' 
In Crwnliotiie Cijuioit^ 



The rise in temperature ciused by the doubling nfiheatTftospherlc carbon 
dioxide IS estim^Eed to be cons^etably gie^fer than cyclical changes In 
lempeiaiurc which have occurred in historical Umes, The greenhouse cffea 



3. Founder. InsuiuK foi kaource ManiBcmcm. 

Ir Th? SundjncF Summit mn Global CUituIf Clungt (Sundancr, Utah, li^j 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



36 • TbeBm Gbbtti Rnviutton 

wjlE not be uniform ovrr the surficf of ibr canh, but will be Ins it [he 
equator md much gruicr ai high bt^cudra. This wJlJ dJur [he dionul 
gradicnrs of the planet and Is expected to con^id^ lably change the pattern of 
preclplation. modifving ihe various cllmatk lonc! and hence ibdi viability 
for jgriculturc. [t^ exp^cEfd, foi fxampEp, dut m3)0T food ^ producing drts 
}uth 1? the bread bowls t>f the American Middle West ^nd die Ukraine will 
become aild, while other areas la the Noriii wiU become fcrtlk. Transitions 
may oi may ncn t>c gradual, bm In eiihcr case world food security Is 
threatened. It is also expected that theie will be moie changes In cLmalk: 
condiuons than In the piast, with greater ejitiemn tn temperature uid an 
Inaeasc In die frequency c^ huttlcanes. Indeed, one of the greatest sources of 
unceruintv in predicting local and global climate change is die effect that 
global warmtng will have ondoud coverage. The monsoon cloud STSlem of 
die troptes, for exunple, us main bcbsr of world climaTe r^guhdcin and it Is 
known that It reacts slgm^icjndy Co small changes tti oceari lempciature^ 

A hirther consequence of the heating of the earth would be a rise in sea 
level, caused by the thermal expansion of the sea waters, and run- off from 
land botne ice capj. This mighc m.can a general rise In the $ea Level of as much 
as one metre- Icadlrig to tJicsubmerstori of lowlyltigrcglDrcsind exposure of 
larger areas to the danger of flooding durtng sprang ades arvt steams. The 
sea-level rise wmild.of couc^e, lake phce gradually over the years, so there 
should be Hme For adjustment. The effect would virtually eliminate soine 
groups of Islands and gready erode many important rtver deltas such as diose 

of 1^ Nile and die Cangi^ wjih the dl^ticement of latgc populadon;^ It 1$ 

interesting tQnOite that during th^ past hundred year^ . the global sea level has 
risen by JO-JO centimetres, while the mean surbce air tempcra.{ure has 

jncrciff^ by ^bi^iut 0.?° Cel^lijj. 

Thete are- of course, many measures which can be taken to deUy and 
buffer earth- heating and cventuallyto brin^ii toa halt. The iundamentalflep 
Is the reduction of carbon droxide emission by a massive reduction in the use 
of fossil fuels. The !9Sa Toronto Conference of scientists suggested that ic 
would be necessary to rcducf carbcm dioxide f mission by jppEOKimately S> 
per cent bythe year 2005. Atewvaluableycais of grace could be won through 
a worldwide campaign of eiKigy conservation and e^ldctKy^ Some argue 
persuasively thai an Interisive attack on energy efficiency could Itself solve the 
problem, HowcveTn even Lf this accomphsbed, the long lead time in the 
development of the new cfficicni processes mikes ii unli^dy that exclusive 
reliance on such a policy would enable control of the warming quickly 
eruugh. Increasing energy efficiency arwl d>e conservation as well as the 
development of sources of soft energy, such as solar, wind, tidal md 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Souk Arraa of AjmU Concent • 37 

gcochcrmal energy, must Im our ImmcdIatccaskJf the disruption of indusEiul 
pioduction ^d individiul hardship are lo be avoided. 

Whal 6icn are our eneigy prtHpects^ While (here it i prtstfii glut of oil, 
we aic nearlngthc end of the- Long period during which th\$ non renewable 
resource h^ been die^p and plenuFul. Quit? apan, [ben, from the need to 
reduce its use as primary fuel because oi the greejlh(>uJe e^eCE, mcuurej 
should be gradually Instituted to conserve dUsvitaJ resource a& a feed stock for 
the petrochemtcal Industry which will be required indefmiccly for the 
productiDnofplasdc£<pharm3CCuHcaU,dyesfu£&ind jhostoFodKEpioduco 
now j^^umedco be essential Coal l^&tlUavaibble in plenty, built seems as if it 
\i becoming too dangerous lo use because of rirth warnili^, imica the 
[cchnological pro^e^ currently taking place makes it posnbLeio considerably 
llmtt 1i£ negative effects. Sottenergyalterrutives can no doubt be provided, 

but at [he present rates of development they are unlikely to be avatiable In 
sufficient qujntiOes In time to supplemenl the reduced supply of fossil fucb, 
Pie^ent fsdnutcs suggest that soft energy sources may piovtde somr S 10 pci 
ccn( of world energy needs at the end of ihe century . There appear [o be good 
prospects for Improvement In theeFflclerKy of photo- voltaic cells, but the 
prospecEof cheli covering vise ireas of land, which would (hen "be unusable 
for other activities, k hardly attricdve. 

Thr promise of nuclrar fusion ha^ b^en htid out for many yurs a the 
eventual u>lution to all our energy problems, l>eing virtually tnCKhaustible. 
This may prove to be true, but its abundant availability seems to be as Ear off as 
when the Idea was first propounded. We certainly cannot lely on fusion lo fill 
the ^p if and when earth- waimmg forces us lo reduce the use of fossil fuels. 

It appears that we may have to prepare for a crttkalsiluatkmto arise a few 
decades ahead, wfien weareciompelled by the dangers of earth- warming to 
drutlcally reduce our use of fossil fuels and have no alternative sources of 

energy in sight. In such dTC<imstane«> nuclear fiston eouid be the only 

possible way of partially alleviating die situation. Majiy of us have been 
unfiappy for a long lime abotit the prollferstion ofnuclear power stations with 
tbcirobvtousdangers, as well AS rhfuecf the dLJfujal of nuclear waste, but we 
DOW reluctandy admit that the use of coal and oil is probably more dangerous 
to society than nuclear energy, bcciuse of the carbon dto:tide It produce. 
There are, therefore, strong arguments for keeping the nuclear coition open 
and for d^ development of fa^t breeder zeaciors. We must warn, however, 
that the adoption of this opuoTi could only partly provide a solution, it would 
be ilmosL impo&slble to make available the capHal and i\v: cffon necessary tor 
the conscrucdon of sufficient nuclear powa ratJons In rime to match ihc 
demand for energy caused by the reduction In the use of carbon -dioxide' 



Copyrighted maierial 



33 • The First Giobai Rrvotiaion 

The Empaa of global ivuming could be pjrtiojJuLjidlfFlculc bt tb« poorer 
countries. Drvclopmenc d^n jnds cnecg^ bi Industt]' and agriculture as well 
as for the domadc rcquirfmfnu of increasing popubdore. The type of 
situation which mighi uise Is lllustr^ifd dramdCicaUy by the pL^ns foi ihe 
mdusttHlizauoti oE China , ihe mosi populoui counti}i of the world. Thew are 
ba^ondieuscof coal, of which the country hjs lirge le&civQ, ai>d would 
even tudlly nuke China one of the icKJmgioffenders amongst ihccoujioles of 
the world In teinu of catbon dioxide polluOon, ai a dine when indu$rtics In 
therenof the world would besltlvlnglo drHtlcjUy reduce its emission. To 
foKC China or, for that maoer, any developing cotmtry to halt lis 
industtlallauon without compensauon would be morilly wrong, politically 
disastious, and practically Impouible, The Chinese ejipetts are well aware of 
this problem, but the dilemma is not easy to resolve. 

Glohatjbtid ircurity 

Production of sufficient food to niKCt the needs of a rapidly liKreasIng world 
popuiaQon is obviously a matter of prtmaiy concern, Ln die early 1070s when 

the ^igj^ifit^^rKe of the population eicploslon Brs received general AEtentioA. 

aurhorjuuve uoSces assured us dur it should be possible \a giow food for i 
world populjticurajljrge as 30 billion. This IS probablvlechn]ca[]vpossLbTc, if 
agriculture IS coiujdcrcd in isobuon. In the reai world, however, it has to be 
considered in the coniexi oi the pioblematiquc, because of constrainti due to 
(Xher facttffs. Ft^ c^tampk. In tbc long-tam cstinuics oi food ptoducDon 
possibilities, it was j^sumfd di^i wj[» shortages could be overcome by 
desaliiution of brackt^ water or of sea water Ehrough technological 
innovacions, which the pressure of denund would conlure up, This^ look no 
account of the enormous energy rcquiremenis which would be needfd for 
luch proce^e^H iioc orthcavaLlabtlJtyottlia^ energy. 

Nevertheless, the increase m agricultural produicDon since the end of the 
Seomd Woild W^r has been phenomenal ind has led to a sirLiatlon of 
cojuidcrabie world surplus des[»Ee demographic growth. In 19S>, it was 
estimated that world food production was sufEldentio provide some 19 per 
cent more calorics than were necessary to provide :i reasonable diet for every 
person on earth. Yet hunger and malnuintion persist in vast areas, worsened 
by drought, famine and warhre. It seems, therefore, that the production of 
enough food has little relevance to the persistence of hunger In ih* world. 
The succcSiSoftSe Green Revolution in India in transforming the food situation 
from deficit to surplus, does noc seem ic have eliminated hunger in that 
country, as mentioned earlier Tfie hungry jre the poor, unable to buy the 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



Somt Amu ofAcutt Conum tt 39 

foodliulfxists.sochjthungfrinljrgtarusof iheworldLsbuld symplomof 
ihr bdsic problfm al povcity. [[ Is trur [hat mor? pfopte are betng fed 
adcquitely Kxliy dun In our base yeir of IMS. NevcrtbeJnSr In absolute 
icmu, hunger conUnucs \a grow. 

The coexistence of gliiE and famine seem^ intoJenble dnd gives rise to 
problems In counrnci which hsv^ surplus food as w«IJ as In dw bod-dffldt 
countrlcSr En the fonner, difficulties related to surplu^csn mb$idics ^nd the 
needs of the Fumers are Foimldable. The largest food reserves available for 
export exist In Nordi Anieilca, with die food -deficit counthes depending on 
the success of hirvests In that counu;. Given the continuation of the piesent 
pittcmi of jgrlcuTrural producUon. die miln deficit ams at dw end of the 
century w[J] be the Middle East and North A.frlca. and sub Sahjran Africa 
I where a sbortfillof skxty millloniont of cfrrcai^ pci annum isoumatedr) 

&u[ will die present pattern! pcralsd The droughts of ]9UicntAhock wives 
through die world food syaiem. Thedroughttn the United States appears to 
have been die mosi severe ever recorded, with grain proiductjon falling bcSow 
donnestic requirements for the frrst dme^ Food producikin In the US fell by 31 
per cent and Ln Canada b^ If per cent. The deficits were made good by 
drawing hconaccumubtedstodts. fn^m which the terms of export contracts 
with about d hundred countries, dut depend on food Imports from North 
America, were also sdtisfiedr This led to a dramatic fall In the lotaJ world food 
reserves. The questlcm thus arises as to what would happen If sImJiar droughts 
were to occur frequendy. It Is prematuretoattrlbutethelQ&S drought, which 
also affected miny Other pam of die w{3rld, to global vrarming.bQC die even! 
was a clear warning of the vukerabifity of food production ta changes In 
climate. 

Unul aboui IWJ, Increase In agricultural production came mainly from the 
extension of larxl under culdvalton. Thereafter, a nnasslve Increase was 
achieved bj' die use of chemical fertlUzers. Thus agriculture no longer 
depends solely on die availability of current solar energy, but ruw relies 
considerably on fossil fuels— the stored solar energy of past aeons. It takes 
approKlmaiely a ton of oil or Its equivalent in natural gas to produce a ton of 
nin^ogenous fertilizer. Petroleum Is also necessary for the manufacture of 
weed kitlers and pesticides whth are twed cxicnsively in modern agnculturc, 
aswellasfortllLageand the operation of Irrigation pumps During the period 
IWO-Sfi, the average per capta consumption of fertilizers, rose from 5 
kilograms lo lit bllograms while at tbc same time die area per capita devoted 
to the cultivation of cereals dropped from 0,24 hectare to 0.15 hectare. Thus, m 
a crude sense, die gieaf Increase la world food prod^Kdon represents dtc 
conversion af oil Into edible cereals via the phoiosynthctic process. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



40 • The Firft Gi&hailUvoitutm 

Today, agriculture In the tiadlQoiul sense hurdl; exists In many para of die 
world, kha^ become j sector of industr)', relying on technoJo^taJinnovjcion 
and modem mdnagccnentrncthodsJlkcanrathCflndij&tiidl sector. Uke^se, 
agriculture, as bodiiwerand producen oftnecgy. has to be CLsriEldeccd as an 
clemcTHof the world energy syiCcm.FuCurcicardty of Oil, or the highcofl of 
It. or coDstnlnts on iu use forced b-y global warnili^ would JnhlUt the 
productkm of food and gready raise food prices at a time when the conOnuJng 
growth of world popuhDon will result tn the demand For more and more 
food, LI Is certainly desicable to reduce the energy Inpuc tn agriculture, and 

much hard thinking Js ncccisary to acccniln the cxian lo whkcb "otganit 

farming" could saorfy the food rcqulrcnwnts of present arxl hiiure populanooi. 



In MfGko, according to Infbrmatton provided by tlie Xoctilcaftl 
FourxldClor, 19,000 kcal hdve lo \x used In order lo pul 2,200 kicaL of 
fo^ on ;]k? Idlflc. From anoclier anglci Llie amount of e-;ier^ 
OXISUined In irar^inrrlns rcDd^tuFfs In Mexico Is ^Imo^r equ^l CO ttie 
total enefgy fHlui™! by ihe primary leaor For fcod producilor. The 

^M (hat ^Lidi situations ^rf wnskieieJ w be poWivf te, MiJ*iu«**yi 
a ccffKCptual aberr^ilon. 

Manfred Mas-NeeF 

In "Human 'kile for Developmwf 

CEPAUR-Djg Hdmmai^lold Foundaifon 



Another potential danger to agrlcultunl sustalnabllliy is the wklcspread 
degradation and erosion of soil. Soil erosion Is a natural process, but when Its 
rate exceeds du: of new soil CormatKinp there ts a decline In the fertility of the 
land, iris estimated thai this is the situation jn approximately )5 per cent of the 
world's aoplajids, In drought scrKkcn nca. overpopulaicd icgion^ ^nd In 
nuny regions such as the Sabcl bi Afhca, recent years have witnessed maigUul 
anble land turning Into arid ratigeland and then to desert. In the caBe of the 
North American 'bread basket', unsuitable soili have been forced into 
production and good soils mined' to meet du: ever liKreasIng demand Ibi 
loQti h^om QM^ide. Enormom imounis oEferdEe topsoil arc waal>cd away into 
the rivets by rain every year all over the world. 

Intensive agricultural practices, such n diose of the Green Revolution, 
demand a nnuch grejler use of waUi dun do the [j^dsTiOh^l rn(th<xls. AJ a 
result, ground water leveU are tilling In many areas, causing doubt as to the 
long-ierm9UStalnabl]lty of these f radices. Improved irrigation facilities have 
provided water In many aild f^aces. ofien with spectacular resulis^ But 
Irrigation has often led to the sallnailon of soils with the destruction of their 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Sotne Araa of Acute Concern # 41 

Frrtilky. "Hils is, how fwt, only onff If mfnl In [he approaching crisis in glolul 
wdter ivalbblllty. DomBtk: demand for water incrc^^s rapidly* 3s economic 
growth IS achieved. In addition, many jndiujija] tedinoJoglcs require vjst 
anuunts of water. Acuic water problems are caused by the growth of the 
dtle$, especially those bciili in arid regioiu, unsuinablc for large urban 
populations. Finally uv must irrcss again the immint^nr danger of the 
contaminailon ot aqulFers by the difFu&ion of coxk: and radioactive wastes. 

Special n^enUon should bcmadeof some of the dlstDiiions caused by the 
intiltianon ot Western iifestyles and needs Into some of the developing 
countries. In many places, and especially In the African cities, food habits have 
changed compIeLely, partly beciuse of thrivaihbiEicy af famine relief Ecod 
supplies or low ptkcd food imports from Western countries. Thus bread has 
become popular in areas whkh are unsuitable foi wheat farming, and rice ji 
gready in Javour despite the high water needs foi its culQvaiiDn. This 
tendency is much to the detriment of traditjoraal food crops and has reduced 
the IncenOve for local farmeis to inacasc ihdr production of these crops 
while the productton of plantation crops in continuation of die ptacticcs of 
col<inlal times is useful in earning foreign eiichange, it is obviously unwise If 
carried to excess m counlnes with Insufficient food for domestic consumption. 
This is especially the case where large areas are devoted to the growing of 
c^nlc feeds for uk in die fwd atuntcd West, 

The long-term consequences of demographic change are incKtrrcably 
linked with future world development and harmony. The industrialized 
counities wjdi chelr ageing populations should go some way co^^rds 
mainralning living standards widi a reduced work force, because of 
automaDon and the considerable Increase In productivity that it will generaie- 
However, Ehe substantial Inrrnsp in chf number of eldnly people will be a 
great burden on the pension funds and on the health and welfare systems. 
Someof these countries are turning to pro-natalistpoUcles, bul,asyet< have 
met with litde success. Considerable structural adiustments will have to be 
made in these coui^uies because ofdie shrinking numbers in the educational 
insciutlons and the need for the exiensicn of tnealih and welfaif scEvices for 
the elderly, the Latter expense compensated for pardy by reduced 
expenditure on child health care. Although only a small prt)portit>ii of the 
population will be within the formal teaming system, great effon^ will have to 
be made ta improve its quality: success in the post- industrial society will 
dqpciKl critically on the quality of human resource development. Flexible 
and selective means will have to be found for lateretirement soas tomake 



Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal 



42 • The Firtt Giobal Revolution 

available the skills af iMtt people sUll capable of conoibuting slgnlRcandy to 
sociciy. The agc-imbaLince' pfoblem can be legaided as a sign of success In 
family pbnnlng. \i Is a temporary phenomenon and can be planned \ox In 
advance. In Sweden, wheie these problems M/cre hrsi recognized, the 
siluiEton Is now jn controL 

For ihe IcH developed countries, the problems are quite liie rcversf . In 
most inscances, the growth of the cconom7 and the climinaiion of poverty 
will have to be the nuLn Dbjectivn of developing economics. Thks means 3 
lype of growth that respeo; and I; huilt on ihe tradirtonal culture rather than 
being a slavish imliauon of the mdEcriallsigrawifaoi ifat North, which would 
inevitably induce die sdrtiemaldisc from which ihcindumiallzedcountilcs 
now suffer. Too great an Inaease in the population can be a fa ul amwralnton 
development, [n many cases already, development plans are unrealistic 
because of Insufltclem attenlton being given to this factor. 

Here, however, we are more concerned about the progression of the 

North $9uih demogiiphic dispaiiCn, By dx middle of die next century, 

inhabitants of the presendy Industrialized countries will consdtuce well under 
!2Dpe[cenlof the world population. Isllfeaalblechacin the future, the world 

-^ill consist of i ghetto of rich nations, ^lAud with sophisticated weapam, 

prorecctng themselves against the vast multitudes of hungry, uneducated, 
unemployed and mgry people outside? Such a scenar]o, which js a 
suppostuon based on present trends. Is unlikely. World events which are 
unforeseeable now will surely intervene. For example, by th^t Gme, several 
ku devcbpcd countries will vo doubt poucu [belt own nucle^E weapons. 

It Ls more likely that populaoon pressures, the lack of opportunkdes and 
conditions of tyranny and oppression will have generated waves of migration 
rotheNcinhandthe West, which will be Impossible ro contain. Our successors 
are likely to see mass mLgrstions on jn unprecedented sciie. Such movements 
have dlmdy begun, with the but people' migjating f^oiti the Fat £a^. 
Mexicans slipping over the border into the United States, and Asians and 
Africans migrating to Europe. Ii Is not difficult to Imagine at a future date, 
innumerable hungry and desperate Immigrants landing m their boats on the 
northern shoresoftheMcdlteriancan. Similarly, massive migration from Latin 
America ro the Unlred Srates Is to be expected, while populaUon pressure m 
Chinamay cause spillovers Into empty Siberia. As we have already suggested, 
the rising of the sea level as a result of the greenhouse effect could greatly 
increase mi^Dori pressures, for example In Bangladesh and Bgypt. 

k IS therefore urgently lequiieJ that the economic conditions In the poor 
countries arc improved, and thai at the sarne time effective means of 
population connoE jre Introduced. We would like ro stress that leduaions in 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd inatenaal 



Some Areas t^Acule Cfmam * 43 

economic dispaiicy and did 0:1 development oF > wl&c and cooperative 
character, rather dun d mere humaniaridn g«<uf« ^uJd be o£ fundamenal 
impoTUnce to the rich countries in their own inierest^ Thi^ is hardly 
understood by the general public In die Industrialized a>iintrlesjnd, until It is, 
tb? pollnduisare unlikely tout. Heveriheless, it li clear that no nKdsures wlU 
dhnivcly stop the migrstion trends. This could induce a sharp rise In 
defensive ridnn in ttv lecelving oHuiinn and encouiage ihe emetgence t^i 
series of tigbiwkngdictacon swept In by popular vote. Such situations rmnsi 
not be allowed 10 develop. Ii Is therefore very Impoztai^t, to prepare the 
populations of die rich counules to Kcepc this- reality. 

The- In/itrmatum SoctcPy 

The emergence of the Inforrnatlon or Post-Cndustrlal Scxiiety has been one 
of the main agents of planetary change ^ If It is wisely guided and It's problems 
are tackled in Cme, this development can make possible many irnpiovt^mcnCi 
Ln the hiim^n randioon. We have already dfKrlbed the developmfni: of 
mictoelectronics and how its appJicjEion^ are penetrating ev^ry aspect of 
domestic and Industrial life. Here we are concerned with its economic, social 
and political consequences. 

The informatlOTL society ts based on developments which toe* place mainly 
in the sciendfic arxl industrial lahoratorles of the countries of the Npith; 
inevitably the revolutionary apphcaoons of microelectronics have flooded, the 
markets of the industrialized countries. Our discussion of the consequences, 
thetefore, has a iliOngly NOrlheirl' flavour. Microelectronics have not yet 
made much of an impact in the developing counules, Nevertheless, these 
innovations ate of great significance for the development of the South. 

The rapid development of mtcroelecironlcs brought about by the 
invention of the silicon chip, which can contain millions of integrated circuits, 
look pbce mainly in the Untied States and In Japan. Iti the former couriDy. 
most of the research and development was undertaken in the laboiatoilcs of 
relatively snull, sophlsocated firms [Silicon Valley) under ccv^tracts from the 
US defence department and space agency. In japan, it was made possible by 
cooperation between the large electrical enterprises and die government as 
parEofanlmaginativclong term strategy ThcEuropcanscntcred dicfjeldata 
later stage and are making great, but possibly Insufficient efforts to catch up- 
Compeiitton in this area is particularly fierce, 

Ir must be stressed at the outset that the coming of the post industrial 
society does not mean that products In dally use, including those of heavy 

indusn-y, will become less necessary In future, as some facik public 

statements seem to Imply. Those engaged In handling informaiHin in the 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



44 • rfe Frni Global IlivolHtum 

Fu lure will sUlE require houuiig, knives and forks and pbcci. a5 well a$ food on 
their plates. There wlllpiobably be less people commudngH asmiichoflhc 
work will l>e done ^chome on computers. They will probably asplte to the 
independence given by the auUjmobllCp but, even should ca[3 be scaicc and 
Fuel expensive, public iranspoTt will nccc^liK (hc m^niiFactuK oF buscfi 
oalns and ships. In die InFormaiion socletv. Industry will ^nil flourish, but ITS 
products will be provided by a much smaller pioporCon of the woikForee 
than in The heyday of ih* 1ndu«rial eta, Tht tna^ority will be in the 
InFormadcHi-handlmg Industries jnd the service sector, 3 trend that i& already 
well established. 

Technological development has had a sirong Influence on the nature and 
behaviour of society ever since die shaping of die first film or bone tools . The 

type oF society we jre living in today is the reiuIiaFthf Industrial RcvQluQonp 
and the advanced lechnologies, which are aJready modifying lifestyles and 
ctiCadng new occupations, may have an even greater eFfect The central 
promise of the information sodcty through the widespread use of 
microelectronic devices In Industry and the service sector, ts inacascd 
manpower pioduciiviiy. ft ^uLd become posslhir to provide all ihr 
ret^ulrcmcnis of s country— Including dxjse of industrial pioducOonH 
agriculture, defencen health, educadon and wcJEare— and ^n acceptable 
standard of living for everyone with only a fracOon oF the physial effort 
expended today. No country will be able to Ignore che$e devcEoprrtent^ or 
slow down their acrualizadcm. Todoso would mean forgoing iheir potential 
beneflu, as well a» risking economic losses In InteirutlonaE rrade. But the 
extent, depth and unforeseeable social consequences of these developments 
make it nwasary ro look well beyond the present d«ade in in iiiemp to 
ensure their expbiDbon lot the maximum benefit to all. If diis Is not done 
and developments are planned merely on the basis of medium term gains and 
narrow vested Interest, governments will try to absorb social artd other 
consequences by marginal adjustments of eTisflng social models and policies 
Id jn ati^mpt to eliminate crisis ^LtuaEions when they become acute. It would 
be ttrcsponsible to leave such developments, wbch aaj be of fijndamental 
importance to liie bealiii of society, exclusively to the operadon of the market 
forces with their Inevitably short' term signals. 

[I is not passible at this stage to predict liv consequences of these 
icchnologial mnovadons with any accuiicy, but some trends are already 
visible^ [n the Informadon society, interdependence between counoies will 
increase through the Immediate visibility of infoimaOon It will lead to z 
greater complexity of InsniuHons and societies. It could enable the acquisldc^ 
of a h^ degree of power jnd assist In the decision- makmg process, but it 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



Sfmif Arras ofArute Cmam • 45 

couJd fqually wtll help unscrupulous leaders lo consolidate power lor 
ibemselwi. There will be the means, far more effccOvcthan the best efibns 
of secret police, for the electronic control of everyone's acDvidcs by 'Big 
Brother' dictators and societies. 
TedinoLogIca] developments tend to increase the vulnerability of sodety 

and this Is piniculaHyso In the cue of decfrotilf devif«. Power ranons, oil 
refineries, nuclear iCKtors. communicsUor centres- banking networks and 
ddta banks all have nerve centres which are of relatively easy access to those 
with the intent of sabotage or political terrorism; these activities are themselves 
becoming more dangerous as more sophisticated techniques become 
available. A computer 'virus' an spread rapidly through large systems jnd 
totally disrupt their operation J. An expen electronic saboKur could pcnenate 
and hopelessly disrupt the whole International banking, network 

The deeper soclaS and psychological consequences of die informauon 
society are still more difficuli to discern, in a strongly technology based 

cuIlutc, d>ert will always be t dichotomy beween d>:« who undcnisnd lis 

wotrkjngs ar^d those who merely press d)e buttons, it is, of course, not 
necessary to understand electronic theory in order to en)oy leleviiion. But 
when the use of die miaoprocessor spreads lo make black boxa' out of 
nearly all the equipment and anelacls of life, the sophisticated know-how of 
the tewp who invent and design the new machines and create the »ttwarcp 
will havesoaredbeyondfhecomprehemicfliofthemajorlty. Then wemjvbe 
faced with a sharp distmctlon between the mirKirlty who kiHW diid ihc 
majority who do not know. The emergence of a priesthood of scicnusis, 
lechnologlsu ^d rechnociats is hardly desirable, and Its prevencton must be 
one of the obfectives of educational reform. 

We come now to theareaof controversy that dorrunates the discussion of 
the Information society, namely the problem of employment^ The 
attainment of full empiaymFm is still seen as a ma^or economic and iocal 
goal, but in Its consideration, the influence of autorri^CLon ^nd tedinologlcai 
change is seldom given much weight- 
There arc those who argue thai the future course of informatbn 
technology and the auiomatlofi It makes possible will follow the frertds set by 
earlier innovations m creating new products, new indusQies. new markets 
and hence generating economic growthr This will provide replacement 
empbymeni for those laid off by Industries with shrinking labour 
requirements. CXhcis feef that the situation is ioherendy different from earlier 
technological developments and that we are likely to see econoni^kc growth 



1 SccSctuff jndFrfcdncha, lOS? 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



46 • The Fe^ CioJjaJ Rnvlutum 

wiihour iubsutiu^i pb cteauon, 

Thl& qucstkin must be considered, not onJy with tcgard lo poj^blf jab 
redundandcs, but tUo to (he general mahise oF induscrtd socictic^ In the 
industrialized countries, tainumerable indlvldujls find hnlc ^aii^facdcei In (heir 
work, even though diey hav« been liberated from the crude siruggie for 
exliience by the bounbtt of the wdEire saw. Tbttc people often give In toa 
soueofworthressnes^ -afeeltngoEbelrgu^ele^^losodctyandtadi^msclvn. 
Dignity, selF-re&pect ^nd a sens? of purposf are hnK psychologicat needs 
which aie dl^uh to provide In the Industrial and urban mllJeu and 
this malaise ^^uld spread If Large scale unemployment were to arlsc^ 

[| Is pvldmt that extensive automation in (^ manuiaciunng indum^ is 
boi^nd to cause many redundancies, eEpecially -of unskilled manual workers- 
It Is equally clear that as the new icchnoLogle? spread, new Indusnin will 
sppear. providing new jobs, many of which will demand new skills. The 
balance between these two movements Is the cridcsl question. Over a long 
period H docs seem CCTtaiPh hQwcvcTj that the labour force required for the 
efficient r^^eracion of industry will b< greatly reduced In size unless new 
markets can be found. Markets for many goods In the affluent pans of the 

woi-ld are ipproachii^ saturation leveh, so substantial expansion can onl^ he 

eipected if the population o( the developing legions can pniuide a mass 
market for capital and consumer goods. This, unfortunately, seems 
improbable in the near future. 

One argument in favour of automation holds that die massLve numbers of 

redundant woikci^ from m^nufjouilng induscilcs would be mopped up by 

an expanding service sector. The analogy here is wiiii the decline in the 
proportion of the active workforce engaged In agriculture m (he advanced 
countries lo as low as 4 per cent over the last two centuries. This was the result 
of i decrease in manpower employed on farms due to mechaniiation But 
migration from die land did not cause unemployment as chc growing 
Industrial secrorwasablecoabsorb the rural unemployed. Historical analogies 
can be misleading when the circumstances are not ejiact parallels and that is 
the case with the pre5cn( transition, because industrial and service sectors are 
undergoing automation simultaneously. Itisver^Lmprobablc that the labour 
force laid off by industry can be absorbed by the service sector as it exists 
today Rather, n die information society evolves, we must expect to see a 
gradual coming together of productive ard service functions and a 
rombinarion of these m thf future occupatnns of the average Lndiuidual . 

Concepts of employment, unemployment, underemployment and leisure 
are heavy with moral and historical values involving the work ethic, and some 
of these words ate used peioraiivcly When large numbers of people are no 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Samt Areas ttfAdivte Cotifon • 47 

longtr TpqulTsJ by mdustry^noc as 3 con^qucEtcrot cyclical [luciiudoii&. but 
becauic sockcy demands and tcchnolc^y makc^ possible very high lewis of 
znuipcwcr productivttjp (h?n ^^se mqia\ and bi^toiical values lose iheir 
mdldanal meanings, [i Is suggeited thai, Inihefuiure, the cblct concern of 
the individual may be leu unm^lo^cnt as we have undersiood lE in the pasin 
but 4(ciqutUH in the Uiget wm^. It will KmirAj influde time speni In 
paiticipaOng In die economic activities oF sodety, for which cich individual 
will be idcquatcly paid, but will also consist of" activities, sclf-cbosen, which 
will provide personal fulfillment. Thus ilie occupabon of die individual will 
hdv« to be seen a^ includlrbg only d small propoitlon of inCellectuaL or 
ptoducuvc ^mpioyment in the xn&iuomi xnx. Prc&utnably this miJn 
occupation aIII cake up a much smaller pan of life plater entry into the wofk 
force, sbotwi working bourSn earliei retirement, peiiods off for furthci 
education arxl reorientation,] and together with one or several subsidiary 
occupations or crafts— eduattonaln sodaL utistlc or sporting— shmtid piovlde 
Individuib wldi enough work to intcrot ihcm and enoiigh. Icliurc for 
relaxation. 

Such a stiuatlon will not develop on Its own. If thousands of workers, 
especially thousands of young people. Etnd themselves unemployed and 
burdened with a seemingly endless leisure, they will be doomed to 
frusQitkjn. Their tcz dmc will be lihen up ai best wtih cclcvis^ viewing 
and pUyIng football More often the pollution otldsure ' wUl be expressed In 
alcoholism, drug addiction, hooliganism and delinquency. A new approdch 
will have to l>e oeaied by sodecy Itself and will involve extensive changes in 
the educatioitai &ynem and In the disnributjon of wealth. 

The above scenario is not is- Impobable or as exaggerated as it may seem at 
first sight. If automation in offices and factories does Indeed create Intractable 
probierru of unemployment, and if the labour unions accept that they cannot 

fpjra the pfOgi«s& of juiomadon in the face of imematlonjl compeiitEon. 

negotiations will follow, resulting In an equitable distribution of work widi 
shorter hours, and the provision of other meani of occupation. Measures will 
have to be talen to provide sodally desirable occupations on a voluntary basis. 
This will make the Increasing ejttent of free lime bolh creative and satisfying, 
arvl [ransfotintheiniormaLion society 3I1L0 [he occup^uon^l society. Thus the 
Indusn^lzed world would be eniermg the golden age in which machines 
will work for m rather than dommate ua. 

This rosy picture of what could happen in die North Is ^r froEn teallzatton 
In the South, The developing countries are, indeed, beginning to benefit from 
the recent spread of the appUcattons of microelectronics. Electronic 
communications. Including [hose diat use satelhte links, are already 



Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal 



48 • The Fint Giohal Eivoluatm 

connecting the majn centres of the <i«vebpJTiEfDuniTiKH'irh ^t^e^rrhf 
industrialized countries, alrhough Inirmj] communKution n? cworb Mt ui 
mosi cases tudimcntaiy as a consequence of poveny. 

Ukewj&c, computcEs Jic gndiully Filtering In, noc only as a part of the 
global network, a In the case of airline bookings, but also in tht offices of 
governmcnis and cnterprljcs. Howcvan although the advanced icchnokigtci 
atr beginning lo appear In the Industries of ccnuntrkes such as India, BtulL and 
MEXICO, they hatdly exist In the pooi-er developing countrlei^ Thj& Is Indeed a 
cidsiic example of how technological innovaOons Inevlublf favour those 
counnles that aie already advanced to the reladve dctrlmeni of those at an 
rarlier suge, fn the absence of a subaiandal Indusitlal Inftascruaurc and 
facltJTtcs for using ^lence and technology, pcnetra-tioa of the advanced 
fechnologjo Is ncccsarily vcty sbw. 

It has Iwen suggested that rapid development in the South might be 
achieved by leap fi oggtng over the traditional stage of IndusQiallzadcsn by 
ucuratlng the developing coiintnes with computers. Wc fcci lihat SUCh an 
approach is undesirable. Unemployment and underemployment are rife In 
thrse countries. The advanced lechnotoglcs are noc UbouT-mtcnslvc and 
would create few iobs- They are. instead, capital-intensive and capital is a 
scarce commodity In the South- Further, as these technologies are owEied by 
the corporations of the North, such a scheme would Induce a deep seated 
technological colonialism. Nevertheless, paitnership between the 
industrialized and die developing ccunnlcs must be gteady encouraged to 
m^ke sure that the lanet jre not fenced to indusnialize, leading [o ibe 
establishment of obsolete ar^ uncompetitive economies. 



The pnablems oE environment, energy. popuUtiora. food availability and 
development form an imcrpcncttddng complex within the probleniuTiquc 
which IS the source of present uncertainty about our future. Theimponance 
of the interactions is such that it would make liitlc sense to tackle each of dieic 
elements separately, Jt Is, however, beyond the capabilities of the nadon state 
lo do otherwise. Thus what Is needed Is a simultaneous amck on all (he 
elements within a cwfdinaKd wofM sintcgy. The succch or failure d the 
flrstglobal revoluttondepcndsessendallyonthls.Theconfllcts of the coming 
years will irlse out of this complex of issues, Sotncof these have already been 
mendoned. We jhall only add oncothet example In relation to increasing 
scarcity of water. Some UNEP {United Nations Environmental Programme) 
officials foresee the possibility of tntemal disputes wjdi regard to the use of 
water of eighteen different elvers. An acute caic Is that of the itomlnation by 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



StffBi Arcai ofAtiule Comem * 49 

Turkty of ihr b«dwattrs of ihr Euphralps on which jII of S^rla and a pjic of 
Iraq depend. Confltcis over these waters could very easily ddd one imre 
dangerous complication lo th^ Middle £^^1 situation. 

These mancrs arc bdng discussed wparatcij' and scvcrall;^ cvcTTwherc, 
Conferences on earth^warmlng and on envliorunencal Issues- in general are 
common. Heads of suie discuss OBOoe layer det^etton and the greenhouse 
effat. hui 3s yei no poliDol leader has had ihe courage lo clearly ourJlw the 
consequences, nor Is dicrc iny cxptcssed acknou/ledgemeni of die 
tntcracilon oEcnvlronmcnQl issues and ibc need for a compichcmlve attack. 
Political action is llkel;^ to Follow only from the Impassioned demands of an 
Informed public. 



3. The International Mismanagement of the 

Worid Economy 



Among the nain uas of concern, the fipld changes Jn the world economy 
deserve special attcndon. This chapter provlda a brief and selective overview 
of the main Issues afFecdng the world economy today, Eocus^ed on Xey 
countiks and groups of counain. USA , Jdpan, the EuEopean Cocnmunlty , the 
devejopinf; counoies, and eastern md central Europe. 

THE UNrrm ^'atts c# ak^rica 

Thai »« ndlally dldermt ?letv& about the state of the US ecooomy, 

Influenced by the relive importance given Co different aspects of a complex 
simabon. This eKpLdins in part why Ir has been so dlffkuJt for them to achieve 
action on problems, even those which are widely accepted to be sezjous ones 
such as the budget defldt. 

At fliHH tbcic ippcai to be many posidvc ekmenti: ihc U5 economy' has 
beengrowlng^leadilyforseveiiyears, now at an annual n[e of around 2.fl per 
cent. Mllllt>ns of |obs hive been created, and unemployment [^.2 per cent] 
and Inflabon (4.^ pet cent) are low, CNPpci capita \i around USS 20,000, and 
the economy Is tunning near capadry. at the nic d ^4.U trillion pet year 

Ftnm an decCOTal poini of vtew, dils Is alttwac an idcaT situation. 

However . there IS deep ct^Kem diroughout the world —and In the United 
States Itself— about the conditions under which thl^ aduatichn has been 
achieved , and about wbethei k can be sustained. For our purposes, these 
concerns can be grouped around the following four main issues^ 



1 Tlv following Bgurts lix the Unncd Sam and |ipA air ofbdal IWO bguro. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



DmoCi^ li^iEfJia. In spiif oh fptatnJ efforts jradinlerTuEionjlcommilmmt^. 
dicafinual US budgfld^ftcttcondnupsalaboull 14D billion. Thir cumulative 
cEtcct oE dils annual deficit is now 3 national dfbt approaching t ) trIllloD, 
having ns^n from jpproKimately 1 900 billion In lOSi. Entcrat paymrnts on 
this dfbi iK now a major jErm m the budgi^t, and ihac uc. of coiine, 
iffcaed by increji« in inwrest iJies. In pjrallel with the growth of niDoiul 
dcbi, Indebitdn^ss has also incrcafcd in oihcc ^mon oi de cconamy— 
bods^hold^H business and banking. Business debt is some $0 per ceni higher 
[haci noimal in relation to CNP. while majoi banks aie seriously affected, 
paitty rhiou^ leveraged bui^ouLs and Third World katm. 

}ii!inatma\ [ndc^uinea. Over (he span oF a Itw yens, the United Siatei hat 
ceased CO be the weald's largest ctedlcor, and become die world's largest 
debtor. Th^ddldlDiicurrmc account is jpprojiiniAiely 1120 billion per ycit, 
md rhexcujTiulated eitemal debc Is over i ^ btUkm and rising sreadJl;, The 
[MP expects dut die cuirem account deficit MW worsen again neit yeai, to 
around 1 140 blllkin. The dollar has weakened In the last few yearsn and the US 
Ititcmal defkltn coupled with the tzade dchciin contiibuies to that process. 
The UnlKd snm payi \a 'ci«ira\ debc' In US dollais, which c^cnttally 
means that 11 forces aedltors to accept a ojtterK^ that ts steadily weakening. 
This rnay be good for US expotts, but Is damaging 10 hotden of US assettn and Is 
also damaging lo countries ihai earn 3 large propottitfff of chei^ fordgn 
exchange from exports of goods and services to the US- In addition, fof die 
first time since l^A. the second quarter of 1Q££ showed a deficit on trade In 
services, thus adding to the payments needed lo service this international 
debt. 

Such imbalances areafactof Intern^tionaTeconomicllfe. bii[ the scale and 
rate of growth of che US current jccounl deficit li impreceden[ed. A 
^ubatjntjdl reorient^Lioii ol the US economy Vii\\ be nccctsu]^ to ratieci il, 
and , uEtimatety, 10 create a level of sutplus tieeijed to service Its accumulated 
International obTlgaEkms which could exceed S 1 trilbon, 

Thus the trade defldl U In fact a very serious problem. However, It Is 
Importanitsrecogrrlzethailt Isltselfa symptom of other problems. Eta prime 
causes ire the subject of heiicd debates For some UoKh ir was constdcrwl to 
be primarily the resuJt of a strong dollar. However, after the Plazj agreement 
and the decline of the dollar, its primary cause was considered to be an 
'unlevel pbying field, or unfair practices by US trading paiinen, pantcuLarly 
the Japanese ^ It Is now tncreasinglf lecc^nized that the trade defldtis mainly 
the Jesuit of excess consumpijon in USA» flnaiKcd by breign borrowmgs, dnd 
a decline In the compel! liveness of American goods and services. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



52 • The Fmt Global Repf^tttien 

EihiCJiQiifl, m^SKlaTaHd P%]fid iKfiBfFnufvrf. There ts a growing reall^tiCFn In the 
Uniicd SaK5 [hai ihc economic growih whtch made American? fef I good 
aboui ihcinsclvc^, has bc^n accompanied by ihf accumul^Eion of seriouj 
social wd phy«oL probiem$. While the drug pcoblem is the focus of public 
coocctn, there U a mbstandal agenda of problems yet to be soived. Sf^ne □{ 
dicK, whkfa will icquEie actentkin and cxpendltutc In due course are 
impiovlng educailDn to meet the needs of a compctnivc econotn^p problems 

of urban poverty *rd. growing racial ieTislO[i, hcallh CWC, a dcaylng physical 
Infrastruciiire and environmencal ptoblems. io:^ic and nuclear pollunon. and 
so on> 

T^ SronVi Tnp, One af the main elements which deietnnines die bilanclngot 
the US budget is defence expenditure, which stands atiround U^S $co bii lion 
per year, or 7 per cent of the US'CNP. A substantial pact of this expendnure 
serves to support the strategic oblectJves of the tInJted States and its allies 
diroughout the world. Now that USA is facing ccfmomic dlffnulties, and 
conipedng bead on with councies whose Kcurity it guarantees, thcec md}ar 
queftk^ns h»ve arisen^ 

First, can USA afford to devote sudi enormous financial and human 
lesouices to Jts own miliary security at a time when urgmt economic a^ 
soclj] problems threaten IQ future? StcocA. why *haijld USA continue to 
expend ic^urcei to Improve the security ol western Europe and [apan 
twhichspcndsonlysllghtty mote than! pel cent of Its GNP on defence] now 
that d>ey are in a posmon to afford more substantial defence cxpcndituies 
diemselves' Tiiird. the foriy year confionaiion wldi the Soviet Union has 
vimuilycndcd, [[dajnoianoppomitlH^toreduccdefenceenpendlmteand 

use the roooirccs thus set free to suengLhen the competitive base of die US 
economy and tackle accumulated sodaL and environmental pn^blemsr 

There arc no easy answers to these questions The? demonsdate the 
degree to which economic and secarity issues are totcrlinked, A serious 
delHie Is now in pcogiess, espeoally after the Culf War, Ibcussed on the 
underlying question of what constliuCes real secuiHy for the United States in 
the modem world, [tisnolonger slm ply a matter of miUiaiy power it must 
jurdy consist of the need ro maintain the economic and technological strength 
of the counity, its political influence in the worldn aid the health of lis 
rclauons with its allies. In the longer term, CLTnsideratlons of global energy, 
environment, population and development are aUo components of real US 
secuitty. 

Thus, thr moit powerful and wealthy economy in the world is confronang 
serious problems todajr, with the prospect of funiier substaooal and 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



MismoMOStment t^the Worid Eofruflny • 53 

Innopjble dtnunds on i(s rcsourcps In thr fuiuic, [n die absence of new 
poJicics, the dcllau will rcrciajn high, and die accumulatimi of dcbi will 
continue. Sud) d jituaDoTi, thcou^ ptorcciioriiun and rrade win, voladllry of 
exchange rites jnd loss of canfidenC'e. wlU threaten woiLd Dade ztA die 
monetary systems on whtch economic growth depends. It will become znore 
and more difficult re gefwtaw dLSfwcioraTv resources, even for priOiTtty 
purpose; such as the wu on drugs, d-ie improvement of education, or the 
sQmulatkon of research, development and invesuneni. The primary catu« of 
the probFems will thtrefote remain unre^lved. 

WhaicvecpioposihmaybcnijdefoithelntematkinaTmanagemenlofdic 
world economy m die tuiure , ii ihou^d be j prior condiUon [tut dK budget 
deficit and trsdelmbalances which confront the U^ecofwmy today must be 
corrected. Otherwtv. these will be a constant source of Insability and 
tension, and a threan to world trade and monciary lystems. They will a^&o 
llmtt the effectiveneu of die United States in world affairs at a time when tts 
full participation wtll be bidly needed, 

lAPAN 

The most significant shift in the balance of world economic power in recent 
yem has hern ifvemergeiveoi japan as an economrc superpower. The scale 
and :pecd of diis thjnge is nmcLlmc^ lutd Lc comprehend, f torn LQ!^ to i^^ 
japan's total nai^nal asKis ruse from U51 19,6 triLlkm lo 141.7 trillion. During 
ih1s same three year period, die total national assets of the United States 
ciimbcd from LESS 30.6 trilliara to S 16. .2 trillion. 

C^CD' estimates that the japineie &uiplus v/ill be S ^S billion In 1900. t V 
billion In IW], and % Mt bllLton In im?. In comparison, die US deficit is 
estlnuted to come down from 1 IID billion In 14A9 to 1 60 billion m 1992. The 
International assets of Lapan may well reach 1 1 (billon in the mtd-mnedeir 
The B^k of l^pjn IS Eiow rrspoci^ible for die world's brsest cash lekcrves, of 
appTOximatcLy USS SQ billion. As an acior in the world economic system. It is 
estimated that between January 1086 and |une 1087 the Baoik of ^apan spent t S7 
blllkin 10 fotcc the decline of the dollat. Funhcr, japan is now the largest 
proYldciofdcvelopmenia^sisiarccat i 10 billion annually, and iarhc second 

largeitcooirlbucoriomulalattialltudtudonsfticha&dicWoildl^nkanddic 
Internationa] Monetaty Fund. 

lapanhas been providrng a large part ofthefu^s required each month to 
finajice the US budget deficit through the purchase of Tica^iiry bonds ai the 
rate of about S 10 billion per month. In addition, Japanese coipoiaiiom ate 



B Oipmann foi European CooperaDon jnd DevclotNiKni 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



54 • Tbf Brti GioM Brvoiuam 

inveitmg in USA -tor example Son^fPCfzitly purchased Columbia P)aurcfl 
FnlcrtJinmeni for S 5.4 billionr In 1953. japincs? inwiesls bought real miK 
worth 1 16.5 billion, and invested nculyl 13 biLlkm In virknu companies. En 
i\\. \rpjin accounted tor jlmo^t 19 per cent of US c jpju I inflow In I9S7. 

The kjng-[crm tnutesi irnzi hivi: iiicn ^haiply in japan, &om 4.8 jper cent 
in ]«fi*ioafoicaii7,'9pcr cent ]nl5Ql and IWJ.whilf US rjifs have remained 
broadly sobic it a^ouTkd B J pet cent and ait now lower In teal leims than ia 
Japan-Oncrcasc^iscbcdctCTmlnatloiiortheBankofldpuitow-jtidbdck ihc 
wild InHiticxi of issct pnc« while were siif^-jrting the cxpan^on of bank 
knduig. 

japan has consistently errhphaMzed te^atch and dcvelopnxnt, applied 
mainly [onunofaciuring in the civilian scCLoi. The pioporUon of japjnsGNP 
applied 10 R and Dbualnv?^ doubled In Ten ytan, from 2 per cent In 19S0, to 
about J.5 per cent today. As an example of its vigorous technology. J^pf) 
introduces each year as many industifal lobcis a^ the rest of the world 
combined. 

The political and economic system of japan ha$ twice demonstrated Its 
ability to igjce on new objectives and Co teof^t ihe whole e<Dnoiny in a 
veiT5borttlme;fintinresponielC)lheoiUhwkofl97*,iftdmotet«:ertly,m 
an eflbit Co teduce 1t$ rndc surpluses under the pcessaie ol iti trading 
partners. Japan has begun to reorient its economy so js to inciedx domcsuc 

consumption' 

This ability to reach a oanscnsui. and to ^chJcve iciui] change m the 
oricnution of the econocny li iu enormous asset fw japin In adapting to the 
increasing pace of change In die imcnutiDnal etonomy. Fmancial Institutia™. 
cotporaaonSn unions, the educadcm and research systems, and the 
govemmenlitself— all seem to be able (o oichestr ate ttieitefbrts to achieve 
broad naOonal goals. This capacity to jdjpi, coupled with then presets vast 
finatKlal ic»ur«s, d dyrnmic icscatch and development system , and a high 
quality education system would sfem to guarantee an even stronger 
economic standing for japan In the coming years. 

Howevetn In sp(te of this tremendous strength, there arc reasons for 
coEicemn not mereBy the fragilEty oE Hading relations and the changing 
stfuctureof the Japanese papulation ^whichbythe year J020 will have ^4 per 
cent ofits population over the age of65)butalso a gradual shih^n attitudes to 
work and new expectations for Improvenient In the conditions c^ dally life, 
especially tTut of the youflgtr gentraBon. These trends will gradually affect 
the dynamics of the lapstiese eamomy but they ate unlikely to make a 
substantia] change In its overall perfoimance. Jn the hclds of money, trade, 
debt and development, and in its relations i^ith trading partners, japan's 



Auteursrechteiijk beschermd matenaa! 



ttadidonal arrttuiksH polldci and procedures will have to idapt to mcci Its 
new rcsponajtiilLtJa 2S a nujoi inrc^iutioml puwcr. 

IHE EllROftAN COMMUSm 

In the early eighties, whkle the economics of ibc United ^uirs and lapan 
eii)o^ japid «£parulMH it wa& fuhlorubif ro T^er to Eurosclerosis' , wiijch 
affilosd Europe wlih liigh uwnipbymenr jnd slow growth. In icccot years 
however, this sttuaOon has changed dramatically, because of three main 
fcawm. 

Pint, increasing worid trade, parWculaily thai resulting irom US economic 
expifision, his provided i samuJus Co the groujEh of Etiropr^n rconomin. 
Sccondn the new domestic economic policies adopted Ln rrxHt European 
cDuntrkes have helped to improve eccxnmlc pciforniancer AihJ third, die 
decision to establish a. unified European market by IW4 has already ptovlded a 
substantial economic and psychological boost to EuJOpc It Is now the 
Europeans who 'fccl good about ihemsclvn'. They arc engaged In the 
process of European pttaUttki. unthin};abie only a Eevir years ago, whkh is 
taking place it a rapid pace and with hr reaching results. 

How h>i ihl! change come about, and what are Its imp licadKD^ Perhaps (he 
most Important single came of this change was the EeellEig that unless Europe 
u»k some nuiot inidadvci u> impcgvc ic ccomoedIc iod cechnolog^l 
performance. It was doomed to fall noi only further behind the United States, 
but also, and more pdrdaiiarly, behind Japan , 

Europe Is now on the move towards a unified market of over }?[) million 
consumers In which there will be the relatively free movement of capital, 
labour , goods and services. This process Is already under way , and most ma|of 
coTpocatlonK and b^nk;^ are positioning themselves to take advantage of the 
new situation through Investments, mergers and takeoven. Also, there has 
bfpn i £UTgr of mvestmrnt in Europe by coufitil« outside die ODmmutiiCy, 
parQcuEarly by Japan and the United States, so as to ensure that they ate not 
subjea to discrimination as oucsldeis to the European Community. 

This iniegratun among the nations of Europe is not j mere economir at 
technocratic matter, Li has both hisiotlcal and political sl^ificance. As die 
ptocesi of economic imcgrjttein progrcsKi. impoiunt polUJcai dedsjom will 
betaken which wjildeieimlne the future shape of the European Community, 
Its Institutions, and jts internal and external policies. Howevetn inany of the 
most difficult issues still remain unresolved uid the final outcome of this 
integradon is by no means clear. 

The twelve member countries of the European Monetary Union have 
reached a broad agreement on the fLiit phase of the IDeiors plan to work 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



56 • TlxFint Gl^baJ Rfvoiutvm 

towards a moneary and economic union, and dijs praceis moved forward 
dcclslvclT iltbc Midnd Conferenoc. Apan from ibc United Kingdom, there 
Is, » least pro vi&loDally.jnjgrfrmeni ID work together to define iprocea for 

an eventual single currency^ 

The rapid changes ukLnfphce In extern Europe are so profound thaithdi 
future role IE shaping the EuropeinCommijnJtyaltcflW cannot be Ignored, 
Among other mBuences, that of Comaii teunlfbcatlon will tian:^orm the 
EiaiuTC of Europe and in icAt in the future. Whether the world econocny v^LI 
reium to and malJicain a higher rate of growth will tlepetx] CD a considerable 
extent on (he leadership, (he policie&j and die cooperation of the main 
Gcofwmic poults- (be European Communtcyp l^pan ud dK United Satn, 

New panems of coopeiatioji should be developed \a naeet ibe global 
challenges of the coming decades. 

THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 

From die pomt of view of the managemenr of the world economy, die term 
'developing couniries' Is iiuppropriite for operational purposes. This broad 
grouping Etow covers such a wide range of countries that a more precise term 
is needed, li i? useful lo dialysc 3 number of key issuu whicli wiU cldilfy dK 
to\c of these countries In (be Iniemational econon^k seiup of the (uture^ 
Three such issues are debt, poverty and development, uid participation 
in the world economy. Manyothcr approaches are possible, but the analysis 
af ihrse issues doe^ lc:ad [o ii]S]ght5 into the future course of aciianr 

Ddir The debt problem i& no longei i direct to the inucnKionji economic 
system gpven die provisions ncnv made by the ma)Oi banks and thcJr 
teoijcntation away fmm iet^Jing to developing coiintiles (and In bet, the 
greatest risks for banks today are related to ihcii domestic real estate lending) 
Vui debt remaitis a ma)or domrsoc problem for (he developing cauntnes 
themselves, especially in LaOn America and Africa. In the last two years die 
Westerrb leaders have finally recognized that there exists the problem of 
ovetlndehtedness. Consequendy, they have agreed to allow easier debt terms 
for the poorer developing countries which are making efforts (□ Improve their 
ccorwmic mjnag<!rr>eni (the so called 'Toronto tetms' agreed on in 15S51 
Secondly , dicy have put in opciation a Kbcmc ^(he B»ady plan } (0 reduce the 
debi burdensoflhe larger debtors such as MexKO and Brazil. These are major 
5ieps lorwaid, but they cIcaHyrKcd to be pursued widi greater urgency md 
will need more r'CsouiCes d^O Ire CurtCriCJy pTOUtded 

Thcgrowdioftheworldeconomyasa whole was nearly 4 per cent in loss, 
but diat of Latin America was only $ix tenths of 1 percent. During diat year. 
Latin American debtactually (ell slighdy. from Usi 441 billion to S ^16 billion. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



Misrna^ui^ementqfthe World Eamomy • 57 

as i result mainly o( debt to equity conversion. However, over the nexl 
[wdvc monrhs ul] March IWO, the dcbi sctvice burden grew by S 10 Irrilllon, 
iimply 3i a result of i J per Cent rise in anternatlorul Interest rwfs. The cost of 
debt service each yeu Is InBuenced by Inieresr rates and the value of che 
dollar, and, as Is evident, both these awe beyond &k control of the counciJes 
conccmed- 

This dangerously unstable sItiutlcKi does not seem to elidi the clo$e 
attention which it utgcntly deserves. The problem- if unattended, may well 
undermine the future piospccis of the wotld economy for several reasons. 
First, a number of major US banks, although they have t-educed cheir lending 
to developing countries arc Jtlll carrying sabiuntlal amounts oi developing 
country loans In relaOon to their cipiCaL Second- since IW, the developing 
couniries have been transferring money to die developed counmes. a "net 
neganve transfer' of repayments In excess of new lending. The amount of 
[his transfer was over US( 50 billion in 1^. Compounding this problem, 
the total flow of direct foreign Invciirncm to developing countries has fallen 
from 1 25 billion In IQS] to t M bkllion in \9&7. 

Thus, V a amc when the (leveloplng councries urgently need resources, 
there Is a substantial net flow of these from poor to rich counines aiKl, m 
effea, the developed debtor countries, prnculariy the United Slates, are 
competing tor resources with the developing counctlei, This is inequitable, 
and represents a tiemendous wj^te of human ind economic potenual. 
Indeed, the abrupt decline ist dieecoriomiesof Latin America boomeranged 
and resulted in a substantial decLne in exports and employment in USA . 

On Its own, the Indebtedness of the developmg countries constitutes a 
serious and growing threat to cheeconomicar>dpoliUal stability of the world, 
but the debt problem must be seen in the conicxi of the other serious trade 
and financial imbalances in the developed countries. In this petspeaivc, the 
present internattonal manjgenn^nt of the world economy seem^ very 
inadequate, and the hopeful and reassuring prospects ol steady economic 
growth seem doubtful. 

New resources will also be needed on a substantial scale ro stimulate 
development at a time when there are new comprtm^ claims, for example 
hom Cd^rn Europe ^nd fiom the countries diiecily aEfecied by the Gulf 
aisis. [t isalso essential thatthe access ofthe debtor countries to che markets of 
the North be maintained and expanded. If protecuonism Increases tn the 
North, thjs will greatly aggravate the debt problem, as it has in the past. 
Devefoping a viable approach to the debt and development problem will 
requLrc i far more cohecent litikage of policies and JnstlEiitions concerned with 
fjnancial management ^EMFl, wlthinvestmem and development (the World 



Auteursrechtelijk beschsMTid materiaal 



SS • The Fins CtohalBiv^uium 

Bulk], and mdc iUMCTAD'. CATP), This will be i chaUcnge lo the world 
communiiy* demmdlng imaginaiivt cooperative cffons by Ac United SawSn 
Europe and Japiii, In si^te of Insdtuttonal reliKtancc. policy objectives and 
action In such IniciLlnked hcLds as finance, debi management, InvestmcnT. 
dcvcic^mcni policy, human resource development, nade, andcnvironmcni, 
muji be made more coherent 

PhittIy dnJ dodopmeiiL' Another Isue, even more threatening to ihe world in 
[h« long tenn than debt, is liiat of poptibtkin growth, poverty and a decline In 
the level of development in many countiies of the South such as Bangladesh, 

Burkina Faso^ndtbiij. 

Perhaps Inevtobly, the arrendon of pobddans, busin«s leaders, 
intellectuals and the public in the developed countries is focusscd on issues 
that immediately a^ea their welfare. The long term implications of the 
piesent aei>d in the world economy— increasingly divided and polarized 
between a jmail pctccnogc of the ilch tpcrhaps ?0 pci cent in 2025] and a 
much larger percentage of poor and underptl^lcgcd ponple - seem too far 
away to worry about, but tfify are not. Apare from ethical considerations, 
which seem to have a very limited motivaUaul force, two implicadom are 
likely to become evident ^irly soon. 

Snanumherof poor counukej.governmenrs will be^n [o respond to the 
intense pressure cEeried on them hy their populaQons, especially by the 
frustratedyouth, which will increasingly be concentrated in vast cities. There 
IS no reaun to expect that they will act in accordance with the norms of 
behaviour established predomlnand^ by Wcsicmeis when they laid the 
foundationsoftheJnLematlond system forty years ago. After scores of United 
Nations resoluuons. North-South dialogues and contererKes, with lew 
positive results, they may well decide to move towards codromadon. That 
thi& may be ilingial or CLUstly would be Ittclevani to thf political realities at 
work History offers many such examples^ 

In these conditions, the comfortable assumptions of international studies 

would no longer apply. At b«st, only the delicate network of iniematlonal 
travel, health and security conuob. diplomatic couricsles, business, and 
^Icntiric contao&j arid » on would bf threatoicd, Ai worst, ir rrorlam and 
conflict— with ensuing migrition flows- would drastically increase, which 
would certainly attraa d% attention of d% North. 

The ptcuure ofa r.apidly growing population on the world enulronment is 
already becoming all too evident. But the solution to this vexed question 



I Unllfd Nidoni ConEcrciKr cm Tcadc lEid r>cvr1opEEicnl 
i Orncidl Aftrccmcni Oft Tiilfl^ jnd Trade 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



cannot be found In the cnvlironmcntal area alone. GcnciiUy- ihc cause of 
mvlfortinf n ul problems ti i complex mixiuK of human aetds. economic 
pressures, technologic j I options and polftlcal IntrrcsQ. Knowledge, 
resources, sfn^itivJty and commitment are nefiJedloiesolve diem. There is 
now wide public awareness that the E^ith is i s^inglc deLkate systenip thai die 
descruoion of tbr envlTDnmenr In the Saudi chmUM dw Nonhn md v\k 
verUr In the environmentaE area, there Jie now the precondtdtou for 
inlenutional actkJiir 

P4ttiiipfi\Un in EAf iwrfif onvmy: The outline of the developed ecoiximlef 
piesentcd earljei In this chapter demonstrates (he enormous potential of new 
tech[x>logle5, nuiugemcnt practices and public policies to pnsmote a new 
surge of growth. But at die same dme, the demand tn these powerhil 
economies for d^ products of the developing countries U likely To dlmJni&h is 
a result of cechnologtcal progress, automation, and their changing demo 
graphic structure. The shift horn natural to synthetic products and new 
materials has cotiflnued, moreover- to weaken the markets for most basic 
product which still ate die main exports arwl the source of earnings In foreign 
exchange for most developing counlries. 

A number of developing countrlesn such as South Korean Singapore, 
Malaysia. Brazil, and mote recendy Mexico, which are able lo compete 

succcefully, aimafcrwcstmcnt, and generate a modem economic base, may 
effectively become full parckjpanis In the developed pan of liie world 
economy, tn other countries, the modem part of a dual economy may 
develop strong links lo die northern economies, unconnected to ihe rest of 
the country which conunues with its traditi«ul economic piacticcar In any 

nsc, most dcvclopliig countries itc in need of kcc» to modem technology 
and enhanced icientific and technological cooperation. 

For many poorer counCFles.arK] for the poorer partsof dual economies, ihe 

economic opportunJbes wiEl be limited. Demand for their primary products 
h'orn the f^orth is unhketyio increase significandy , and ihey will probably be 
unable to develop i significant manuFactutIng base. Further, the advantage of 
cheap labour will diminish as automation In the North reduces labour 
conient.and the potential of cbc knowledge revolution', of information and 
eompuicr technology, telecommunicjEions, etc., a Likely to remain 
unrealized. This Is because the trained and educated manpower, the systems, 
and the infrasEruciure, on which such i leuolutlon must be based, are 
lacking. 

Anodiet criitcal aspect will be the growing compeQtion for resources of all 
klndj— particularly energy, water and suitable land for living— as world 
populanon grows and environmenia] problems increase. The orderly 



Auteursrechtelijk beschsMTid materiaal 



60 • The Fint Global Rsmlutum 

disuibutlon of such tocui^s through The muka price meduniim, or by 

government iLlocaQon, wiLI come under incrcising ptc&uic js demands 
become mote despeiace. This Issue wlU lequlte urgent anendon u the 
IntemadonaL Jevel. Jt will be ome of die necessary funciLons in Fucure, on both 
practical and ethical grounds. 

inihe ^b5eI^ccof Jfllgnlflcamncw mawgy for world development, the 
world economy Is likely to become even nure polarized and divided 
between the ilch and the poor. Alteady, about 1.3 billion people, more than 
20 per cent of world population, are serlousEy sick oi malnourished, iccordtng 
to the World Heildi Organization, With dUspcispcctlve , Li Is alanmlng to note 
thac the aid pcrformana of ihc developed countries may be dcioloratlng. 
Since 19?0, their proivlslon of aid has expanded bioadly In Itnc with theii 
economic growth, i.e. at about J per cem per annum. While the aid growth 
Fluctuates from year lo yeai, the average for the past four year? has been less 
than ; per cent. In 1089 the amount was USI 46.7, abouiO.n pet cent of the 

GNP of the dvclopcd co\intiic5, down from an average of 0*^ per cent of the 

last [wemyycais Ithe UN target is set aiO.75 per cent). Within this average, 
some countries fuve conslstendy maintained an aid level c^aiound 1 per cent, 
while others remain well below the average. An increase in ODA (O&dll 
Development Aid ] i& paiticularly important fra- the poorest countries iS they 
have very limited options available to promote dicli development. 

The Improvemeni In reladom between East and West now raises the 
possibilityof a truly global effort. OverUSt 1 trillion Is now spent worldwide 
on ^imameiii^ eac^ year, including I 200 billion spent by developing 
countries. Therefore, substantial human arxJ monetary resources could 
gradually be released for development liuough the reduction of expenditure 
on drms throughout the world. 

Hew thinking is b^dly needed: to ignore the issue will lead to disaster. 

Besides, ^in^ply promoiing growth' chroughcmt the developing world along 
the lines followed by die Western economies is not a vkable strategy on 
environmental and other grounds. This must not become an excuse lor 

stagnation: it is a reason for examining new apf^oachcs to developnient. 

THE SOVIFT UNION AND EASTERtJ EUROPE 

Unul quite recently, (he Soviet Union and the countries of eastern Europe did 
norplayasubsianilai lolelntheworldeconomy. Now the siruatkin Is rapidly 
changing and their rale will become increasingly impomnt for the following 
mam reasons. 

The success of pcrrdivild in the Soviet Union, and in those East European 
countries engaged in reform, depends to a certain extent on trade and 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd inatenaal 



A4ismani^ffemenl of the Worid Eauiffmy • 61 

technologkal coopciarion wich ihc West. A^ reform continues, ihc intensity 
oFsuchcoDpcFdTian will tnaease. ind :hi^ wrll be orpjrtKiubnmptHianct to 
western Europe, e&pfi:ia[]y Lo the Federal Republk: oE Germany, Thus, the 
leaders of the seven wenem mdustrlaL rounnrln. at ibdi meedngin Fails, 
assigned a ccx^rdlruting lole to the EuEopean Commhsioi] tn this area. 

TheSovletUnionand the Ej£t European coQntrLeE,paiticuldrly Poland, are 
bdng enormous budgetary and ElnandaldifficulcieE The budget deEnitt of the 
USSR for 19B^ amouikted to 1^ billjon rubles, or about USI IQObklban ai the 
ofFldal rate. There is a vast coHectton of [Hoblems to be solved and the 
benefits anticipated fmm frjuttaiia have not yet begun to appcdi. Fiam the 
comumer's point of view, the ^lEuaiton Is In ba worsf dun brfaie. 

In theieclrcumsunrcs, finance and Investment from the West are of great 
Importance^ Although It has cnicred Into loan agreements, paTdcuUrly with 
German banks, the Soviet Union seems reluctant to take up the credit now 
avatlable. Poland, however. Is uigcndy seeking resources tor Immediate use. 
Two important issues arlsf . FIfst, undl the nurugemfni of the economy in the 
USSR Improves, will the additional tinanrlal Tesources From the West be 
effectively uQllzedlSecond, anUl It IS clear that reform will suceed, and that a 
reformed Soviet Union will not revert to Its past policy of confrontation wirh 
the West, should the West p<ovlde support^ 

Th\% second Issue is proving to br a diviiive farce in die West. Wcsi 
European countries emphasLze die opportunity and need to encourage 
positive change, while some in die Unned States cmphailze the risk, and n-ced 
fo: caution. If USSR should decide to move much bster, even Incurring 
substantial debts to accelerate economk growth dirough coopcraOon with the 
Wcsi, thii problem will become kqk. 

RfloIuFu rniH \npan: C3ne of the certainties of international relations since the 
Second World War was chat relations between USSR and Japan would not 
^jgnihcanlly jmprove for two reasons, japan's friendly relations with the 
United States had pre eluded good relations with the Sov let Umon, during the 
periodofEait Wesiicnslom Secondly, the vehementdiugreementbetween 
Japan and IISSR over the Kurile Islands prevented any rapprochement- 

Boih thc5C considerations may no longer be important. At a time when 
East Wesr tensions have lessened, and because of an Incieasingly strajncd 
relationship with the United Slates, |apan may feel more inclined to improve 
Its relations with the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union in lum may wish to 
strengthen its ues with |apan in order to benefit frcm Its financial and 
EcduioJogitdl tnourtn. Such i development would has'c mijor repercussions 
on the structure of the world economy, and on IntetnaEional relat^^n; in 



Auteursrechteiijk beschermd materiaal 



62 • Tht Fim Global Reroluiion 

Beyond these sped^ jnsances, ki must be noted that the poLtcks and 
piofpects of the Sovlci Union md ics allies ate of Immense importance to (he 
future of ihc world. For more than forty years, the rivalry and icnsjon 
bctwfrn Ejst and Wesi havt nured IntfrctJUondl Ecljtion^ jctd obstructed 
growdi and progress diroughour the world Whcihcr thi^ ^uujulxi i^ iiiady 
ktrevetsibJe> and ftfotniiji will Jail to fulfil cxpcctJCLons ^nd this failure will 
result In a return to mn&onutlon Is beyond the scope of this report. But mc 
conclusion Is inescapable, Every effort must be made to cotKoTldate the 
progress which has already been made, awiy from East West conironmlon, 
and toward; a rL:dua]on in drmamrn(». This will produce po^vt re&ulQ 
ihrougbyui ihe world, for two reasons; fust, and most evident, it will help to 
reduce tensions, and thereby reduce the resources expended on armaments. 
These resources wlH then became dvaJlable for invcstznent, and for the 
provision of desperately needed social scrvlcefl^. 

Secondly, the reduction of tendon, conflict^ and d^ threat of war will 
provide in Important motal and psychologica] boost to world motale. This 
should not be undetcsdmated. It could create the conditions for constiuctlve 
f\i*f IniUaOvci ^n which East and West ojuld cooperate (cr The first time, 
rnobllizing their energies to face global problemi. This Js perhaps die greatest 
single opportunity avilUble ii the pic^ent ume to consolidate ihc piogjcu 
whJch has been made by mankind and to open new ways for future global 
coopciition. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



4. Intimations of Solidarity 



[n a d«larirtori made by the Club of Rom* in 15B^ ^vesaid, (here could tw a 
bfl^land fulfilling futuicjivaiting humanity ffhhu die wisdom lorcdchoul 
iDdgraspthcdlERculOesihudpOia^lowdndpjinfuldccllJKlf lincglctcs to 
do so/ TfUi it ntll out crctkiH but dmc Is now running ouc, Ln the previous 
dupccis wc have oudlncd iomc of the negjiivf and dangerous uendj in 

conwmporiiy soficTy However, there arc uuht posiovt aspcos which give 
hope that humanity Is dwae of IQ problems jnd dial the human lacehas the 
urge, the creativliy and the adapiabkllir to manage tis uncenaln future. In thli 
diaptei we ^11 moiOon a few of ibcsc signs of hope as an OKOUiagemeni to 
the teadei. 



There arp ihr» passiUritlK facing mankind. The firsr Is rhjt there will 
be i nuclear ^ar, after whkli [here will be nolhrng to worry aboLL The 
SKond Is that K wtfT be willlns Eo Uke a thousand snulLi wise decisions 
and mill praduallyoutirfihe mess. The third 4id most prubaWe lithai 
i| will do noilipne dibd tliai iht sitiul^ mlFF d^ttnor^it w ttiJl |hf poor 
Hill uiJKrLE the e^rlK jnd livC iit mj^ry For Ever aher. 

Epjrdphrased Uom Harrison down's speecti') 



For die bst forty-five year*. Ideological paTarlzadon between the two 
superpowers hasheld the world hypnotized by the apprehension of a nuclcat 
disaster. The crosion of the jnftuence of the superpowers, and now the 



1. 'Fcr3onj( Comrnunlcatton'. ]U7». (tluitKm Bmwn wn al dut Umc PmEaaa il die 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



64 • The First Giohal iUpoIuium 

iudden calLapu d tht raw^dilballrd rtomornks hjs ncutnlrzd the 
tensions, presuming ui w\ih in entirely new mife en iunc. Agrwrnt nu on arms 
reduction uc jchtevemena Eu beyond anything thai ojuld have been 
Imagined 3 decide ago and there is the expecuOon of much more to come. 
This clean the way kn mote scrkous atiendon lo dieoihci problems which In 
conjiincuon mjke up the predJfajnent ol mankind'. ^ 

The new spjrH of coopetation heiwccn ihc United Stites and die Soviet 
Unton has made possible a high degree oF ubdarlty between the nations 
ag3ln» tggr«&^n. as proved by die i^ cement of the UN Securltv Council jnd 
General Assembly to ImpOK a worLd blockade on [raq folbwing Its 
occupation of Kuwaii In i990. 

Cooperative efforts have led Co progress In odier areas, such as the Uw of 
ihe Seas Corafercnce where delegates, after LcEigdiy ncgociiuom^, ^g^ced on 
many important Issues and novel InstltudonaJ measures. They ciKknsed the 
concepr of the oceans as &< 'common heritage u( mankind , This precedent 
hdfdlsQ been applied to AntarcdUplhcUsL and ewemety fragile unexploitcd 
area of the planet, which otherwise would have been pillaged by ihe 
Industrial nadocc in iheii gr«ed for new le&ourcn, leading to ecological 
disaster. 

There have beef> In recent vean,et>coursgTng signs of an Increase in public 
awarenessof ihe dangers 'A'hich face m^dLLCJniuaUy to ihe repots by ipoups 
such is the Club of Rome which were then promoted by the media. 
Worldwide public debate, the pressure of green lobbies, calamities such r 
die Chernobyl jnd Bhopj] diijsteis have forced polincijns to jecognize the 
Importance of a whole series of new issues, and compelled Industry to adopt 
ai least a semblazKe of social and envirorunental responsibility' As a 
consequence of awakened awareness, new signs of responsibility and 
solidarity ha.ve appeared amcnig the general public in the form of citizens' 
groups, coopcntLvcs and NGCh with a vast vacjfty of alm^ ^d methods, 
oncemed with local, national and world problems. 

Particularly Impressive has been the leEponse of many private and 
volunteer agerKles to disasters in places which -are ^ from theii bases. Their 
ccmtrlbutlons have been outstanding In a number of eardiquake relief 
opcrattons. During the acute famines In Ethk^pfca and thc5ahcl,NGOs appear 
to have been more effecnve than governments and (he international agenoes 
in promptly reaching food supplies to the starving popublkins. In general, 
non- governmental activity h^ achieved a new order of impoitance and bids 



LT/iiFr;i^oE}ilLifMuMjl waiEbeiltledibenigiiulandvciyfiiitreiea/chp^otecLaldir 

dub of SlOUK. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Ititim9lionfafSaU4firity • 65 

fail to have a growing and conscrucdvc Influence on nadonil and InTcmatJoful 
polidn. 

Despttt dK relative taliurt of dev^lopjn? ni and ltd polid«, fomc countiics 
hive adiicvcd ^p^cucuUi luccosfs. ^la, one oi ihc most populous 
countilcs, has become i aapi industtlaL power In MJdtdon to li3- agrlcultura] 
arhl^ementj chtough du Green FtcvoluUon. The Aiian Dragons, otherwise 

known asiheNIQ f die newly industrtaJlzed counoles oFSouih Easi Asia — 
Taiwan, Singapore. Hong Kong ^d South Korea,) have achieved gteai 
pnxpeilEy which is \axd lo a large extent on exploitaticoi of the new 
If ehnologlet. Theie Is a ]»son hrrc foi adier struggling nations The Dragons, 
following: ihf example ol i^p^n. founded (heir deve]opmen[ on the 
gene ralizauan and upgrading of education and the creation of ^oiind uicnufic 
In&astructum. Somr of ihf poorer coiuntrlcs a.re aho ^ho^ving the results of 
autive Initiative— for example, the recent progress In Boiswanj and 
consistent development fn Zimbabwe. 

fi sign ificint event his been the exercise of peoples powci' , iuppirtcd by 
world public opinion- leading to the downfall trf oppressive governments m 
eastern Europe. These are mvUfe^iauons of change which ten years earlter 
would have been ^uppres^ed by mlhtarv Intervenbon. This type of blood less 
revolution is a rare event in world hbtory, and contiasts widi the brutal 
crushing nf popular will i few mondia tarlicr it: Chliu and chc tragic events In 
Romania. Changes in Chile have beer* positive and there is a trend lowsids 
den>ocracy In many other place*. The recent ideological volte face by the 
letderof Erhfnpla ii amszFng and hopes now arise ^or scnlemen is in Central 
America and even for [he disjppejcance of spanheld in South Africa. despiEc 
[hedangerofdvli WIT In ifut country. In many African counirla. which have 
been ruled by diciiiors and single parry polmcs ancz independence, public 
unrest is beginning to win concessions. Thus, as we come to the last decade of 
this millenlum, we ^nd chat detnocraey has emerged as the triumphant and 
prefctted ideology of ihe whole wotkln while dictatorial ideo9<^e« both of 
ihc ^fl and of the right have ^len Into disrepute. One can only hope this will 

be an Ittcvenlble rtcnd. 

A new kind of fel Jtion&hlp can now be obscivcd between heads of slate 
and minlners. Through numerous mulQUterjl or bilateral conferences, 
meetings aE>d telephone calls, personal relationships are being established 
which enable a bener understanding anxing the human beings behind the 
official masks. This is aeadng a new network of tapid communication 
at the highest level, even If It docs not always lead to greater understanding or 
common anion. 

Enormous benefits have flowed from advances In the medical sdences and 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



In ihc ImprOiVcmfliiol hygiene [he world ovn. In tht North, iKe scourge of 
tubcTculojts tus gone; life expecaiK;^ has tnansedn and curoof al^viatians 
foutxj loi manf lllnc&scs. Sm^JIpox h^s been eliminated by ^ weLlplanned 
tnKrnHlonalefFortanJ hopes exist (or the ciadictlon of several other diseases 
which plague the ocpkal councrtes. Pcrhap* even more Lmporun[ ls ihe 
iiEnificjnt rcducft)!! of Inhni morphty in ific developing counuLw, pnly 
diFough improved hygiene, but ta a greater eEifni because of the 
Inircductkin of a ^mple mpEhod of curing Infandle diarrhoea and more 
recendy bf immunmTkKi agaj rtsc niej^Tes, a maiar killer cf children in tropkal 
and equatonal ciLmates All in all, death conttol' has been moic succcssfu] 
dun l»nh conuol in the dfvrioping world. 

World recognition of d^ jmporian>:e of human rlghc ha^ betn i posi uve 
feature In recent yeajs and shouJd continue to be so. Amtvsty Jntenutlacu] 
and other tuch bcdici have been suecessfyl \n exposing jbii^es everywhere 
without political bias. NeveEtheles^, the fashionable appeal to human nghis 
hjj served is a manipulabve alibi to cover up unseemlv prdttLCts in nuny 
countries. Here we must sires the ornvtction of die Club that the 
maintenance of human nghts must be complemented by an equivalent 
affepunee of social respi^nsibilicy Thi^ ^pphe^ eqiiaily af the [ndlvLdual. 
national and InietnatJon^l levels 

An eiample of a prompt approach tolhesoluOonof agbbal problem by 
Interrra clonal aclkui has been the (at present partial^ agreement for (he 
elimination ol the CFCs already referred to. We have also mentkified the 

ttoid In Industry [ominln^ze dangnoiu, ditty jnd repedtlve work by die use 
of robots, b^teresdng atcempts are aUo being nude to replace Jine assembly by 
new niiethods of group working whtch give dtc n>embcrs of a team a varlay 
of tasks to da and allow for individual in voivemenl which makes It possible for 
workers to have pride In ihciE work and craftsmanship 

Thls^enLury ha^ ^imcsscd gieai advances m die potiuon of vromcn In the 
Western counmc^. fitic in gaining the [lgh[ lo vote, later being accepred In 
cmpbynKnt outside H and now edging cowards pay equal \o diat earned by 
mm, hi many cultures women have been c&ploiEed by men, mnicied to die 
&ml]y and given a iccondaty pbce tn sodcty. Of coiirsc. duoughout die 
ages, iniclligcnt women hive exerciwd a great hifluence on society, dther 
themselves or through their men. Today women work side by side widi lacct. 
sit In parliament, become business leatlers arid prime ministers, although they 
arestillinrather modest nuniberunth-e higher post^. This is good news, butH 
Is soil iwl enough. The aggressive feminism of (he seventies and eighties 
somehow irsissed the point. In demairding an aiiitlcial equality with men, 
rather than a tole which Is essentially complementary, women found 



Auleursreciileiijk beschermd malenaa! 



Tnanwtvms of Soiidarin * 67 

iheyhidnoDdierchokeburiortptodiiCf thf^tpnl? mil? logic which hj^ l«f 
the woild inio it& pr»cn[ sucf of mdUis?- In (ht pimcH, manj-of chemos: 
jucces»ful of diem bccune, as li were, mjlc-hemcd women irt&tcdd of 
dcvelc^ing the vtttuc5ofthc EcnuJc mind which society so hidly needs. 

This phase. hippLlf, xcms co be p^^sing. There is Incredsing recognition 
jmong boch mm arvi women of tht Fjgrificanw of ffmale quaiitiK and 
valucs^ Women lie i[ last accepting cbe ha ihaithcjanaad musi bch^v^ a 
women rather than anen^ co beat men ai ih«Ei own ganKS. Equally men, 
and the minaeerUL economic and political sytrctai they have cteaccd. are 
bcg.LT]nlng to rccogniie the Impoftancc of won>cn'5 skills as managers of both 
pcopk and resources, as comniunicaron and. above jII, thji Lheir vf rsitilliy b 
via] for the development of a hciilth^ jnd balanced ?ocie[v This recognjtJon 
by both 9CIB 1^ a crudallf Imporont step foiwafd, and chis oppotiLinity to 

enable and cncouiagc women to contribute iuUy K> the running of toocKy 
must not be wasted. The batiLc Is not yci fully won. Male duiivinism persjRs, 
but It will pas» with Fhc gencradons. 

Two ele:T>ents are of paramounc importance if women ate to conchbute 
actively and consnuctlvely to axia! development. Firstly, society must bcdi 
listen CO and place confidence in women. In the male dominated and 
seemingly radonaL world of today, female Incuidan, versatility and innate 
common sense are too often Ignored — oFren ^r 3 hctvj wtK- $cc>;imllyi 
women will have to be given both financial and moral support by society. 
Such nrpport needs to be fkrulblc and sensitive to albw women to pfay a 
posinve toii in the shaping of WCieiyH without COmprOrnlting their place at the 
hcan of the hmily. tn (he West, this means ilcTiiblc work pattcrnSn 
comprehensive child care and equal opportunities. In the developing world 
this means extensive legal rights as well as poll iical and financial support- In 
somr: countries, availability of credit for women for the first time has 
unleashed a wealth of IniUatJvc lad cractve Kttvicy, 

However, above all, women must linen to liiemscluci and support each 
odier. They must develop cmhdence In their abilities ard stop an 
inexplicable tendency to demgratc themselves while |udging ihemwivcs 
a^insc m^le criteria. 

Icis diusdcarchat we srcmiTiuallyrnponslble for thffumrcof our world. 
We have to call foi an jnctcased pjndy rc^ionublc action. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



S. The Vacuum 



Order ir socicly Is determined \fj the ccJiHion of to mein!>cn. QnttI At 
middle oE oue cenruiy this w^ j^oim^ll^ cnsuECd by 3 natural pauiocsm 
and a saae of belonging lo ^bc comm\iT\\tf, and reinforced by moral 
di&ciplinc exerted by rehgion and by respect for the Uatc and its 
leaders, howevei temotc tbejr migbc be horn 4k people, GoKtilized 
religious hith hs^ now ev^porared in man]; ^oanO'lcs; rcsprct for the poHiinl 
process has jIh? fjdcd, Icavtog behind Indifference, If nor hasnlliy This 
is pardy due to the Influence of dK medlj. and partly to ibc inadequacy 
of the pollOcal paciles In facing rci\ problems. Minorities ^re Increasingly 
unwllTing to respect (he decision? of The maiorliy Thus i vacuum has been 
aedced. in which boilk thr ofckr ud ab)ccnve& in soctcty ac bnng 
eroded. 

Today's approach to social bfe ii superficfal bised 00 current events and 
crisis govcrncncni which actempt^ 10 eliminate sympcoms widiout dta^osmg 
the causes of problems. This It the way we are setting the scene for the 
dcsTiumon oE our planet 

We look in vain for wisdiHn. The opposition of the two political ideologies 
which have dominated this century no longer exIstSn leaving 
nothhig b<Jt a Qras& m^reridlLsm Nothing wjthln ihe governmenrjl system 
jnd it! denslDT making proccw seems capble of opposing or modifying 
dicse tKDds, which raises quesdc^s about ouc common fpture and indeed 

aboulthe very survival ofthetace. 

We must ask whedier these are signs of an Individual and collective 
rejdgtutioti Ih the tec ol the uumest of the caak f^^tng humanity ^A dx 
urgem need for acUonn or Is it a sign of a lack of unaglnaQon and an 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



The Vacuum • 69 

Incapadtyto Invent new way^^d ncwmcani whjch willm-edSLLreupUlhe 
global magniiudc of [hcpHioblcmi^Tbctask is Indeed Eormidsblc, builfvwc 
^w no ijgnof ^cqjdng its chdllcit^, li Is Ukcly peopLc may p^mc, Ioec biih 
In [heir leader*, give inia fcjr. and ofEer support lo cmicmlJts who know how 
to Cum leu to ibctr own ddv^nogc with rnccndiary &t>cei:hes 

[t ft a law of NKUrt di2T any vaoiujn will be filled jnd iheicEbre 
dlmUutcd> unle» this Is phyflcall^' prevented, 'Nature', as the uyirig goes, 
'dbhor^d vacuum '.Like die bJackholcsof space which suck In everydiJngdidi 

appiojch«» the vKUum of sodeif seems Co atna the best and dw woia at 
randmn. Wean but hope chat the semi chaos whfch Is now taking over will 
cwcntuallT provide die anaLCilal for i self otginl^d system with new 
possibilities. The present sysiem is noi yet useless, but human wisdom must 
be marshalled quickly if we are c& survive 

'How simple things were with Brezhnev/ a Euii^«an Icadet confided, 
]ulf-scriausly and half ironUally. The colUp&e of onnmunlsm in the East 

Eutopein coumiic^ and the Soviet Uiuon wiU be a m^ior unseirling &ctor 
during the coming lum of the century. The new hands dutate to be dealt In 
the card game of politics aee unllkeSy co be a^sesied at dietr true value, nor are 
their potenii jl consequences likely to be evaluated until at least two ot three 
decades have gone by. 

The itnpkisfon of the Comtnuniil idc^^Fo^y rh^c b^d dominated the gicatcr 
part oF the twentieth century wa certainly spectacular, but It was by no 
means an isolated event, licolnddcdwlthibeendofthe American dream' , 
which k»t its credibility w^th the painful Vietnam war that deeply scarred the 
collective Amcrbcan comdeiKe, The failure of the DcEbi^, Hispanic 
migration, the phenomenon of povenj within plenty, drugs, vIolerKe and 
AIDS. And the fan char (he 'melting pot' nolonger worked were other potent 
factors In its demise, lijving lost its position of unique leadership In the 
world-aleaderihipcomposedofa generosity laced wfth Puritan values, and 
a cynicism worthy of the conquerors of the Far West —the American EutKin is 
plunged into doubt ^nd is Eacmg the often resisted temptation oF withdrawing 
Into Itself, an escape that Is no longer possible in the present global 
environment. 

Most of the peer counmcs jre graduslli/ relinqiJlshinR their Marxlit md 

socialist beliefs [n Favour ctf more concrete and iminediale preoccupations, 
such as economic deueioipment artd the stabilization of their economies. 
CapLlalist and fiee-markel economies have found it necessary lo make 
adjustmenU so as to survive, while socL^iist systems jIso m^de adiustmenia 
belatedly but did not survive. The political and economic cheoncs- which 
motivated the actkins of wax and aroused the opposition of others For the 



Auteursrechteiijk beschsMTid maleriaal 



70 # TbeFmtGUjbai Rrpoluam 

greawr pan of this century apiwaT TO have run their MQtM.OfllynuKrlalijm 
remains loday as a strong all pervasive force. 

h is noi cj&y ^ samulat? a euiivpt^jI debaif on ideas, but the lack of 
anempts lo do so further dcepcni the void . There Is 3 prosing r^eed for such a 
debate, and ^bc hequency of mtemaiJonaE conferences and nieeungs, with 
their cross culiurji dlscussioiu. dvmld Initiate new ^d more global chinking, 

Thit period of absence of diought and lack of a common vision - noi of 
what the world of tomotiow will be, but of what we want It to be so thac we 
can shape It - is a source of discouragement and even despair. How simple It 
was,or should have been, for France, Great Brftain and iheir allies to inobnize 
agalnai ihf ir common Nazi enemy. And wa a notsbviouj dutlt^ (he period 
□f the cold war , that die Western nations should accomplish a diplomatic, 
economic and technological mobilization against the Soviet Union and Its 
Dteiliie countries? Again, freedom fighters, despite tiibkl and ideologkcal 
dlffererKcs, were able to find unity and strengthened patriotism in the 

flniggk for IndcpenderKC ibcli common crKmy, the cploniil pQ^ecs. it 

would seem that men md women need a common motivjuon, namely a 
common ^dvetsaiy agA^st whtim they can organize themaelves and act 
rcstther In the vKUum such motlvadons seem ra have cea«d ro e>:lst - or 
have yet to be found. 

The need for enemfe; seems to be a common hlfloncalfAclor. Some states 
have striven to overcome domestic failure and internal contradictions by 
blaming external enemies. The ploy of finding a u:ape:goa[ is as old as 
mankind itself- when things brcometoodi^ult at home, divert ittentlon 
to adventure abroad, ^ng the divided nation together bo hce an ouolde 
enemy, either a real one, or el:e one invented fbr the purpose. Widi the 
disappearance of the ttidlEional enemy, the Lcmptadon is to use tellgious or 
ethnic minorities is scapegoats, e^pedilJy dvase whose differences fn^m the 
nujonty arc dJsKurbfng, 

Can -we live widioui enemies' Every state has been so used to classifying its; 
r^lghbours as friend or foe, that the sudden absence of traditional adversaries 
has Left governments and public opinion with a great void to fill. tJew enemies- 
have to be idcntilicdn new strategies Imdgtned. and new weapons devised. 
The new erxemles are different in iheji nature and location, but they are rK> 
less real. They threaten the whole human race, and thdr ramcs are pollution, 
water shortage, famine, malnumtion, illiteracy, and unemployment. 
However, it appears that awir«icss oi the new enerriies is, as yet, iruufficienc 
for bringing about world cohesion and soltdatlty fbr the fighr Also the failure 
of many Ideologies has removed some of the necessary points of reference. 

Twoaxes of reference have made po^& tble the pollucal evolution that has 



Copy rig hied material 



The Vaaaon • 71 

shaken the world (hex East yem and Ifd [O the downEaN of many 
djctatonhlps^ Thc&c ate hum^n tLghi&anddcmocnc;, Wc shall now j[uJy»c 
(hctr lengths and lirmc^uona, 

During (be pjsid«ade, ihf conc^pcof huiiun Eights has been i moblLizIng 
tictcr which beame e^ecUve through ic dissemlTution hj the mcdjj and hj 
word of motL^ in che countries where such rights were dlsrrgsrdcd or 
denied. When freedom was widely enjoyed In other countiiesH how could 
(Ik people of some countries bedei^ivedof It fndefinltcly^ This isespecaTly 
the cue In countries nuchas Poland or Bcazjl where ihf CaihoJic Chureh . in 
ardent protagonist and supporter of human rights, has i strong JnfluezKC. 

In some of the mast lotahtarljn of countrin. dsplnotJiu tot ^iccdom hive 
been fulAllcd in such a way cha[ It seemed as if the pressure of vilues Jud 
reached ciitica] point and exploded, averthrowlng tlic opprcs^oiSr Through 
various processes md despite the painful cose of ctvll stru^lc, death Ji>d 
Impiisonment, this thirst fbr freedom was expressed by MaTtin Luihci Klngn 
LcchWdJad. VdcIdvElivel.DontlcEdcrCiiTidtd.andNchonMjudddjusiu 
in rarller years Mahaima Gandhi h>d paved the way. 

but freedcqn alone cannot reorganize a state . write a constitution, create a 
market and establish economic growth, rebuild irxlustry ar^ agriculture h or 
build a new social siTucrure. Lt1sanece«aryandnobletnsplTaaoiulfotce. bur 
Isfar from bemg an operating ni^nujl for J new govetnTncnt. This 1^ why the 
concept oFhuman rights simply initiates but cannot implement tiie process of 
democtatltition 

This is where the question must be rsi^— what ton of democracy is 
required today and for what purpose? 

The old democracies have functioned reasonably well over the Iak ewo 

hundred years, but tiiey appejT now to be in 3 ph^se of complacent sfagnaQon 
with little evidence of real leadership and innovation. It is hoped, with the 

new'found enthusiasm for dcmocricy in the leccndy liberated counalcs, thai 
people will not reproduce slavish copies of existing models thil ate unable to 
meet contemporary needs. 

Thr limia </fdtmacracy 

Democracy is not a pinacea. [| cannot organize rvnything and It ]i unaware 
of its own limits. These facts must be faced squarely, saollegioui though this 
may souitd. In Its preseni form, democracy Is no longer well-suited for the 
tasks ahead. The complexity and the technical ruture of many of today's 
problems do not always allow elected representatives to make competent 
decision; at ihc tight dme. Few poimcldiH jn office iic luffiticndy aware of 
the global nature of the problems ticing them and lltde. If any, aHrireiKS of 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



72 • The First GkixUB^foiutien 

die Inicratnons bttwctn the problems, Genfcally spcakmg, informed 
diiucssjon on tbc nuln pollUal. economic ^nd soaal Issues oke pljcf cm rv^\o 
and wlcvision rather than hi PwUuncnt, to die deirlmeni of the Ijticr. The 
JcUvtda of pobdcd putlesarc^ io inrcn^ly focusscd on flection deddliim dnd 
party livalricj that ihej end up weakening dK democracy dwy «e supposed 
TO jcrvc This <;cinfTOn«yonal approach gJv^s in impression Thai ^riy rwcds 
tome before rulional intciest. Strategies and uciics 5eem more Impoitam 
than ob)cctlv« and Qfien ^ conscituency Is negkcred J& won ^ It I& sained. 
With the £unent mode oE operation. Western democraclei arc seeing dldr 
formal talc decLjnc and public opinion drifiing jway from elected 
representatives. However, the crisis In the contemporary demoaadc system 
mua not be allowed to serve ^s an excuse for refecnng democracy. 

[n ihc countries now opening up to freedom, deniocTJcy Is being 
lotioddced In a situjtion which demands grejily chjnge-d artiiudn and 
patterns of behaviour from ciUiens. These ineviable problems oE phasing in 
democracy are diEficult to solve. But ihere Is anocher, still more serious 
question , Democncy docb noi necn^^rily build the bridge between a colonial 
or neo colonial economy or a c-cmnlizcd bureaucratic economy, and a 
maiket economy based on compftinon atid cdpiblc oE producing giowih. 
ACdnidn, market relatione and m^n^perial styles dimply do not exist In a 
country experiencing a tt^nsinondL sicuation ^uch as (he present, which 
because of sudden and unforeseen changes has been neither planned nor 
prepared for the tnecessary structures, [f such a situation Is allowed to condnue 
for too long, It Is probaWc thaf demociKy wfll be made TO s<^m responsible 
for the lagging economy, the ^carcEnesand uncertainties. The very conccplof 
democracy could then be questioned and allow for the seizure of power by 

extremists of one sott or ihe other, 

Wlnsion Churchill was rl^ when he quipped. 'Democracy Is the worst of 
all systems, except for the rest. ' Yet we must be aware of its erosion, its 

triglilty and its limicatiom- When persons say It Is obvious what must be done 
ro improve our situation, ' they seldom ask 'Why Isn't It doTvihenT And^f 
they do ask, they will hivrCQuiKwrr, 'Ills beutisei^fl^ihe (political] will 
or because of our habits, or because of shortsightedness, or politics arid so 
on,./ Our inability to Indicate how to overcome these sources of ineztia and 
resistance makes It dear that we are not at all sure about what must be done. 
We overlook Ipsycbologlcally speaking, we deny ) our ignorance and instead 
say, riutwc lack the political will. The crucial need is to revitalize democracy 
and give it a breadth of perspective thiE will enable it to cope with the 
evolving global situation. 
The real question Is, Is this rvw world we firxl ourselves m governable? 



Copyrighted material 



The Vactam • 73 

Tht irtSwCr w. wt[h thr txuting sfruCturs and JnfCud«, ptob^bly AOt. H3V« 
wc gddKicd ihc nmessuy mnns and wtsdotn to mike dedsions on die fcile 
required for the world problematique, E^ngintOKCOumih£c:itigenoe&of 
dnK' There Is an irKieislnglr evident contiadlalon becweeo Ihc utgency ai 
taking som? d^cisioii^ ^nd the dcmocriiic picxc^s loiinded on piocedum 
such a& pJiUimenQFy dt^bjce. pubk debate, jcid neg(XlJbon& with D3de 
unions or proteslovul otginiunons. The obvious adv^rtoge of dvse 
pioccduic^ i^ the achJpvement oi a conscn^u^. die di&jdvjn(jg.e lies In d)c 
Eimcdkey ukc, espectally ae [he Incf mjcLOEuUcvel. tor indeed the difficulty 
Is not only in the taking of decisions, but also In d)dt Implemcnabon -and 

evaluadon. Time In dbnc nuitc» hjs dcqulied a dccpcthlcal value The co^i? 

oFdelay lie monstrous In letmsoF human hfe and hardship as we II as wane of 
resources. The sIowiku of decision oklng in a demociabc system \i 
particularly damaging it (he Iniemauiirnal level. Wheii dictators attack and 
tnternaOonal policing Is required, delays In taking dedsioois un mortally aFfcci 
the lives of thousands of people. 

The problem then is to invent instruments of govenutKC capable of coping 
with change wldiouc resorUng to violence and mamtaJnirLg the kind of peace 
which provides security, lustlce and fulBlllng growth br individuib and 
soclenes allke^ Kot only have we to find better mans of govemance at 
national and iniemaUonal levels, but wc also have to deiermiiie the 
characteristics of the capacity lo govern Global '.govemarKc' in out 
vocsbulacy docs not tmply a global government' . but caiher the institutions 
set up for coopernlofl, coordination, and common iction between durable 

sovereign states. The good and, for our purposes, encouraging news Is that; 

— people arsd nations are beginning to-agtee to oke the 'next steps' together, 
^tiowever, they are carefully avoiding toagree on leAirthcv^re agreeing.); 

—they are reaching a consensus by practical procedures rather than by the 
formal vodng of govemmental rcprnentanves; 

— many Iniemabonil functions, especially those requinng the most forntghr 
and □perauonal flevibllltyr can be earned out through non -governmental 
arrangements; 

—In many fields governments have come to realize diat the effccOvc 
deploymeniotthejrmosi cherished right, then sovereignty, requites that 

a be p«y with the sovereignty of othct nations, in Ofder to do dilngs that 
none of (hem can do alone. In this sense, coopeiauon docs not mean 
rehnquj^hing ^ovciejgtityH but rather exerting It diiough joim action — 
instead of losing it or just not using it. 



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74 • TheFinta&balBjrvoIittKm 

Whfthcr onthf intfrnationa! level, the national l<vd,orthe levd of the 
OMporaiion. the problem of govcmanct ptescnti itself tn new cetms. The 
gtowing compkxicy of die world and of its probJems makes It nccc&ary to 
have a comply If grasp on ftcmendous ^mounc of InfbrmaOoo brfoce commg 
Kfi decision. This limnedldlely calls Into qu^Ci on ihf qiiality of informadon, 
lot ix \i In con^tanc dmgrr of rapid ob&ok&tenc^ and po§&ible jnjc<:tuacy. or of 
belE^us^ior outright propaganda. A second Lmpcdicnenr [o governance Is 
C2uicd by the Increasing size and inertia of large bureaucracies thai spread 
their tentacles around checenftcsof power and slow down ot paralyze both 
dcdskm- making and impjementaiion. Other crtidal impedi merits consist of 
[he Idck of cdundon iov tompctmt tiiucmhip dnd uudcquatc 
LnteTgeneraQotul undct^tandlng. 

Yet another difficulty arises trani the Uck of cooperation within the 
admtnJstratiiRi and lis secioral .struCEuies, [f the different power centre; do not 
learn to cooperate, and Instead Insist on acting in ignorance of or m opposLdon 
to one anoCha, the KSMltIng adrnlnlstrative sluggishness can povokc dchp 
that can lead to inefficiency, wrong decisions and confrontation , 

So far, governance has oprnt^ by treating problen^ separately and In a 
i^tticai mode, i.e, field by field. Today the inreractEon between problems is 
mcoz^po^y of governments and their departments, working In a vacuum, 
outside oE the framework of the problcnutlqiK^ This In cum demands leader? 
of a new klTwl.capableof treating problems In both a horizontal and vertical 
mode^ In the world ihat Is eniergmg, decision tn^lng can no Longer be the 
monopoly of governments and their departments, working In 3 vacuum. 
There is the need to bring many partners into the process— business and 
indusoial organlzatkms, research imtjtuttons, sdendns, iUCOs and private 
organizations— so that the wtdcst possible experience and skill Is nude 
available. And, of course, erhlightened public support, where ihe public Is 
iwatcof the new needs and the po^jble consequences of decisions , would be 
essentiaL Adynamic world needs an effective nervous system at the grassroots 
level, rwt only to eruure the widest range of inputs, but also ro make the 
idennflcanon of every cinzen with the common process of governance 
possible 

[n the present St tuition in the worlds the lack of identlBcatkin of the people 
with the processes of decision -nuking is expressed in the form of 
Indifference, sccpCdsm, or outright rejection of governments and political 
parties, which are seen is havtng llnle control over die problem? of our times. 
These atHiudes arc clearly Indicated by a decreasing race of paitidpaCon In 
elections. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



71* Vacuitm • 7S 

The (6>rttn6n enrmy ofhutHomry u Man 

[n searching For dcomnuinmfmyjgainsl whom wcc^nunitCr wcc^mcup 

With ;hc idc^ ihji pollunon, the ihrcai of global warmjng. waicE ^horageSx 

Enntae and the like, -would fit the bill. In tbdi loulliy jnd then intenctLons 
these phenomena do con&tiiuie a common thicai which mast be confronted 
by everyone tDgcthcj. fcjl in designating dicsc dangers a^ the enemy, wc fall 
InColhetrap. whkh we have already warned Eesdeis about, njmdy mistaking 
symptoms for cjuses. All these dangers are caused by ^tuiuji mccrvenoov In 
n*tural processes, and it i5 only through changed atritudcs and behaviour that 
they can be ovcrtome. The real enemy thai is huminitp :oclf. 



6, The Human Malaise 



The shock wivci prtdjccd by the drasdc dnnges of ihc peat irinsiDon aic 
ihus sparing no region, noracfrty. This upheavil has broken up a system of 
idaDonshtps and bclJcEs Inhetlted ^oni the p^^, wlihout leaving humanlcy 
any guideline ioi &it hxtatt. ThciC arc w many reasons for doubt and 
dcipali: the disippcaiancc of value? and established points of reference, ihe 
InCTOSlng complexicy and unccruinty of the woild and the diffictilcj' of 
undersfandlcig the new cmeiglng globat society, unsolved problems such as 
continuing envlronmcncal dciciioidDon, and extreme poverty and 
undcrdcvelopmCTit In ihc louihcrn counoics; the Impact of mas media often 
opeiating as 3 rnagmfying ^\m for i dcprosinE reality and hjghlightfng the 
misery of people. 

Let us mention, Kidioui attempting an In depth anilysfs, a ElstofvarloiK 
symptoms, which although differing from ezch odier in thdr nature and tbclr 
consequences, together shaTc die quality of being globaf symptoms; the 
wava of violence. patdculaEly in big cities, the permanence of mtemailonal 
terrorism, the actlvltlo ofmiFlas Ithai are also rapdlybccomlngintcmatJonal 
networks), the rise of drug addiction and drug -related crime, tbc aggressive 
sexual exhibitionism and dcviambchAVLoui exploited by the press, the other 
mass media, and the advcrdsJr^ tndusor. 

All these phenomena are ^tcUng dic^cage,oomanydlffcicn[ levels, fori 
new upsetting environment, where deviini behaviour Is In general given so 
much and such repfited coverage that ii ti percelTcd as being commonpbce. 

Parents and teacbcis, the point of reference In most societies, have not been 
prepared by thdr education to adjust to the new sltuaOon Imposed upon them 
today. As the late American sociologist Margaret Mead remarked. 'Toung 



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people arc ttur njtlvc population of this nf w world In which wc iduJCs ire 
Immigranis'. Some of \a woukJ even go aJong widi her ob*c^vJt^on dui 
"nowhccc In die world do there esisi aduiti who know what their children 
know, however remott or simple ihc socieues in which those chihiren live, [n 
(he pjst, [here were ilways »mc dden who knew more — had more 
experience or praMiec of a sy^em In which dicy had grown up - than jn? 
child. Today there are no Icaiger any.' 

Everywhcreptcacbctsite being difficulties wldi^JT pupils, fbrihcy too 
are unprqiaied for teaching young people who aie much more lndependen[ 
dun (hey were ai ibc same age jnd constdenbly better Informed (atxl 
misinfoimcd) brcstrse of the nuu medlj. All^ruofln^rutlons,suchjs the 
pohticaT parties or Qadeurh^i. itc discover ing bow difRcull ills to retarf to 
dieir coDstituenoes In the old fashioned way. Thte crisis of relationsbps a a 
crisis of dialogue. And jb&ence of dialogue leads to conironotlon. 

This does not merely mejn thai parents and lejchers hive ceased to be 
gutdc»; It tXim [hat dicrc die no longer mj guides in (he old xnx of the 
tenn whether one boks for diem in one's own country, jn China, In Lndiij in 
Afrla. In Amerlcaor in Europe. Thinks to modem information technology, 

young people uc being exposed rapidly lo more and more facts that give 
them reason to believe that their elders lack responsibility and ^re una wareof 
enormous dangerous such u a nuclear holocaust, pollution and the violent 
destruction of environment. Furthermore, a shower of reports cm unrelated 
dlanets and violence in the news everyday are like a series of shocb that lead 
m die feeling of generalized disorder. 

Wi^in this djsturblng paoem, what hapt^s to the 1 Ife of the individual^ 
Children watch tdewlslon and leatn about all aspects of human life. They 
learn to be persons widi individual choices, Indlrutions and freedom. 'Hie 
conflict between inherited and acquired values. Is such that If a young person 
wants to delink and jci for himself, he must have lots of courage or he will 
break down- Not having been given the means to distinguish the fundamcrtal 
meaning In (radlUons and values, from whal Is nnerely their formal 
expression, the younger gerkeraUon is rejecting tradltjons and values as a 
whole and is sketching out new trends: today, adolescents ate the ones who 
krtow about and conaibute to the mator tramrkationaE trcrhd&> ai>d try tostand 

Rrm agilnst dangers. Their parents now have to see-k their consent and 
negotiate thetr own Formerly unquestioned authority. 

How do parents and teachers tcict lo this tevetsaL where the exercise of 
authority is disputed and the 'master' Is no longer acknowledged ^ Some of 

chem, !dll mentally adoiewcpt oi cinotlonally Immature- adop( the yoMng 

people's fads and imitate the way they dress and ?peak. Those who lose all 



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7S • -^FintGioiaiB^voMm 

authority over their children, art usually themselves unsure of their own 
Idcndcy and valuesn ^d transmit didr own nuaiaisc lo ihc young^ 

F<w these dlsiurbed paienls of disturbed young people, there 15 only one 
way out, which Is noc Co ttdiat. but tiuly llftcn to and lejrri fiom their 
dilldren, even if the chcorlcs d)C children profcaa stRisi seem iinacccptabk to 
thfm, or unworkibli: and impossible to put Into pnctkc. Tbeic is 1 Deed. 
nma more than cvCTh to cstablbh a fruitful inter gencraiiDnal diilogue, 

[n slmcHi all cullureSp the family Is reigaided as a Eundamentsl social unit, [t 
will probably continue as such, but In new clrrum^ances — dii^iojnCcd jnd 
shatteied b^ urban liEe, rural eiodtu. emlgiiijon and contUci^p modified by 
control oviTj tcptoduoian- with the human couple now iomed m in 
uncertain bond, functioning according 10 a new pattern of relationships that 
has rcpUced the hitherto uncontested parental authority; a family within 
which the upholders of naditian are increasingly in conflict with those of an 
AnierLcan ^lyle modernity. 

'In India/ explains Mrs. Parthaswaratht, dK principal of > girls' school In 
New Delhi, die aisls has already arrlued. The young arc living a perilous 
exiitence, lorn between the ciadittonal and the new values and subiectedta 
contradictory pressures. They musieoiillrtuillynufce up their mmds and take 
decisions In a context where the family used to deddc collectively, with the 
last word bclon^^ to the pamarch.' 



fndeed, man is Jn distress' Except Tor those who believe and do 
good deeds, and command the law among themwivesand 
conuiujid patient endurance among them^lves. 



The picsentmalai5cLs affecting sodetiesH and lixlivkliia}s ate confused by their 
brutal brea}; with the past with no new coheient vision o( i^t future tO foctify 
them. 'Who am I; where am I going; why^ Although these are traditionally 
the eternal questions , they arc now Eclt more acutely than ever and even now 
cannot be answered saOsfacloilly, The turmoil , which Is especia.lly - but iwt 
exclusively —affecting young pcoplCn (s expressed in a number of ways which 
are identiflahle is symptoms of this raai ik vtvre. 



II en hiierdii d''interdlr«. 

(Forbfddlng Is (orbldden.^ 

Oneof theitogan^of the 
Student reTOli in ParliJ?6a. 



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TbeHwmmMiMte • 79 

fIglnsaEdiscordhjvf grjdudlyjpp«[pdm thfglobdJ soc^ty, mdudngfuf 
md bringing young people [ogcther de^itedifferpncesc^ddss.culiuFc iod 
(suntry. Rock mtiJkcgjdgfU and coll drlnki have forgfd anew. pirallcl ind 

tonporary {a long is youth lasts? sodcty and cicaitd whai ihc African 
historian |o«fph KiZerbo calls 'homo cocj colons'. These new D-|bes 
toi^sdiuie J global phenomenon. The^ are strongly snticied by consumeuBm 
widujul, lor die most part, having financial access to k. Furthermore, dim 
own fumrc seems to oftct nothing but an uncertain Ii,ftht for s urvival in an 
InhospiEabTe global SDdcty inarked by fjoomy peispCLiives such as bruol 
competiDon or die ihieai ot uncmploymojL 

Ai fot their oldcrf . many of diem arc inclined [o returr) to thdr tndirtonal 
cultural and rellglocks roo[», convlnccdp n lea&r foi die nme being, thai this 
will provide the onl^ way out oF a life of misery and despair. In fact, another 
jspcclof diis^eat tijnsicion IS the felt need to £0 back to the ancient spiritual 
principles such as those of Islam oi Cadioliclsm. orto ftnd solace In cula axl 
pacudo icliglons This I? csscnaally a manifcstauon of ihcdc^ qucK Eor d)c 
absolutCn which Is shared by so mmy human bclngs^ 

However In manj cases, thl& need develops into fundamcntalisTn and 
fanaticism, which is usually an expression of the immense disappointment feEl 
Md-M the VVeKett) model cd modcmizjuon. con^umpaoc. cconorJilc 
growth and social progress, which has not kept m promljc in mwi developing 
countries, and has brought dehumanisTlon In the JndusirlallKd regions. 

Moreover, nationalism, wbch has always existed Jn vatious Forms ai^ 

degrees In ^[ parts of die world, has now acquired more vlgorousdlmenslcns- 
Ln the East European countries, for instance, the nationalist resurgence has 
been dK dilvtng Force In dx disintegration of Communist states, just ai 
earlier. It was the most powerful lever In ihc anticolonial fights. ^i 
nationalism is a double edged sword; based on the c^ concept oF die 
nation state, iicanjll 100 easLl^bccome J JOUiceoFlnmleiance.conflia and 
exaggerated raasm. 

TJie traditional concept of nation Is partly disappearing In the wave of 
Intcmanon^lization — For mstance, the dependence of some countries on 
odicis ^ raw materials and energy, or for food, mvesiments. technology 
TnnaFer and training— whidi a creating new ^lidantics thjr arcoot^vnyi 
KCcpicd OI understwxi. 

The reUrth and rckiforccmcni of xenophobia and racism can of cout^ be 

exp biricd by the millions of JnnmigEancs and reFugeesm Asia, Africa, America 
and Europe, who ate seen ai a menace to die sodal equilibrium of a country 
and a kiIous threat to m cultural idenuty jusi when this identity a bemg 
questioned by its own adepts This phenomencm is all ibe more manifeit In 



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80 • Tix Bnt Giobai Rrpoiutvm 

chii i\ Is hiduced by the (onfu^ion m fjch individuj] who i^ Facjng th^ biual 
emergence of ihf glob jl dimensLomof todjy^ is&i]«. ind by die building of 
regi-onj] and mcc:- region j I orgdnizanons &uch ja thr European ConununltyH 
where pcop]? fcjr they will lose their soul. 

Theie two opposjng uends - ihe revival of specific cultural tdenOdes and 
die form Jtion oi vjst, regional unjti-arctnrailtycDmpiDblc. The appjrtnc 
cottflici arises horn ihe difficuliy of leconciling tEiein wid^in d^c ^rxi&Qng 
pohtialsystemsrjgidly set within The model of the n3Don suie, which cannoi 
be adapted \a the present sjtuition and needs to be ccplaced by i solid culiuial 
world cominunity, Tbu a socncthiDg very few jic jwaie of- 

Thls picture 15 rather grim, but wc tan point oui iomc poiiuvc signs diat 
iie emccgirigr loimg people are good at iiaiung le^olunons. no matici 
how soon th«y are re ^Integnifd into the mamstream. It wouldbedifEicukio 
forget their role jn Algeila. Africa, Chile, China, Romania an-J dv Soviet 
(JnloOn CO mention |uat i few countries where regimes have been overturned 
by popubr provst, 

The human malaise appears to be a normal stage In this great traruiikin. 
Eteblith cannot uhe place jmnnediatel^ or without patn. We cannot dlsregaid 
the dlversLty of wcieties and cultures, discount the burden of tradition, or 
fotgct that words and concepts do noi alw^y^ have the same meaning tn 
different contexts and languzgei. A quest such as thu, fbi a new and nuie 
harnronlous mcicty . Tnusr nai give In no the cempotloo -of seeking unanimity 
by Ignoring disagreements, or admir to defeat beEore the battle begirif on 
seeing die penii of such an ambitious and diEfLcultundenaking. However, the 
human malaise is also a reflection of the present dangerous march towards a 
schizophrenic world. 

Toavrdi 9 icirkcphmuc itvrid 

How can we speak of a global socjety when to many conuadictory forces 
are CKcrGsmg their power on soceties and indtvLduais . tossed about in a 
huntcanc of events* We already have one iotx in 3 two world system 
which has replaced the three worlds we have spoken about so facilcly in our 
speeches, aitldes and tepotti The chreeworlds-Thclndusiilaliiedone, the 
second one mainFy con stiEuted by die Communistcounu'ici of caateinEuiopc 
and the undcrdcvdoped Third Wcffid— arcDo more. 

Tbc second wc^ld asiuch is disappearing. The term 'Third World' has llcde 
relevwwe.Snce Bandung and the beginnrngofihe movement of non aligned 
countries In 1^5, Is anything much left in common between the Asian Dragons 
and Bangladesh,., and Halil> Between Morocco and Kuikina Faso^ And In 
Brizil. between the uuealihy fendunrlalEjcdrcglomDi Mo dc Janeiro and Sao 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



The Human Maiauf • SI 

Paulo and th? north-«st of ihe coimliy where people ue suffeiljig (ram 
si^rvdUon Jitd mjlnumcon/ 

Diversities oE Interests aie. of course, as obvious within countrjes and 
legtaas as on ibe Jntcm^tioEtjl scene which cancems lU beie. Deep 
dichoiomtes existing In iItho St jilcoun [Ties, muluple standards of behavlDut, 
and hypocritical scnoni irs much ihf ^am^ wirhin and among natloru. 
RccoiKl]|JllaEi of inteiesis on the national scale would hivc to be sought as 
part of the global haimonization proces. 

Invlewofthis we shot] Id note soin-e of the more distressing <Ii?parltiej and 
unresolved are^ o£ conflict which ave relevani to the world loenei 

— the dUparicy between the nchand the poot wldi an IncieasEng number of 
people living bekiw the line of atMO-Jutepoveity, (leu than list 370 pet year 
Jot one bllbon peoEJc in 190O| ; 

— the gTo^vjng dijpariry between thwe who have accc^ to kixjwiedge >aA 
(nfoimaiioii jnd those whc do not: 

— chedlschmlnatlonnotonl^againstreligiotuotethnicinlnoiftja, butalsoin 
SO many <ounQi«p ^Inst aid people, 

— the abser>ce of equal d1«pen$a don of social |unke; 

— Uckof cqualtl^ht^ jndduOn. ofequilpdvilegeindtespon^ibiliiy: 

— the Each of balance between discipline and license; 

— the dispa^Kv between economic growth and the quality of life; 

— the caring community vetsus the impccwnal welfare state; 

— the LiCk of bjian« between material an^J spiritual necdt, 

Jn addition, we should mention various gaps that aj^ contributing to the 
human m^biie, for example, dwUd; of under sanding b«w«nthcdiic^nd 
the muses, the separation between science and culture, and the conflict 
between rationality and mtuiGon. 

There arc a vast numbei of dJfteteiKes between human beings and these 
have hitherto been regarded as being 1 rreconcilabtc nffcrcnces In values and 
in cthtcal Interpret tron are ptesenr throughout the fabric of world society. 
Once agjin^ we reach the conclusion thai only through the uitquc3lloiili;g 
acceptance all over the world of a common code of elbicSp directed towards 
the survival of the race and the living planet, can divergent Intcresta be 
harmtxilzed or, at least, mutual tolerance be thieved. 

MoKof ±c fdccuol thii milai^e dte not new , Whdi: makes diem part of this 
first global revolution is the worldwide dimension that characterizes them. 



Auteursrecfiteiijk beschermd materiaal 



82 • The First Giohal^RtPoiution 

even jf they exist io varying degrees Indifferent places Thert is no doubt that 
the present nends ^nd duejts we are contending with are induced b-y a ioic 
of mind influenced by both the globahty of these coniemponry situations 
and the fears and aggress iv^ncss of oar felJow hutnanSr 



The Challenge 



iUcvct in the coursr d hlsrory his huininity been faced wlih so many rhrcau 
anddingcrs — caQpali^unprcpucdinm J world whcr^ tim^ and disancr 
have been abolished, and where min is sucked inio a global cyclone of 
CLjnTu&lon. swidjng with seemlEigJy unrelaied factors, ihc cau»c» and ihc 
consequences oJ which form an Inextricable miic. We have, in the preceding 
chaplers, set out a number of causilbctorMbenLostlinporQnt of which are 
inequlubk ctonomit giowdi, dctcrionDon m govcminte ind die opaaLy la 
govern, uncertain globj] food security an-d A3[er avaibbilirv, environmenQ] 
damage and etseigy ^horuges, populauoo growth and migraOons. and die 
upheaval of world geosmtegic iacts. All diese (actors are interdependent^ 
interactive and ccxisQiute what bas been called the world ptoblenutique by 
the dub of Etome, 

Though die public ha^ acquired a relatively belter grasp of these facts, 
awareness of some of them is all loo often coupled with the ignorance of other 
has. which ue lu less impoiisn t on^s. as welE a of tho true breadth of each 
of diem and the tnteractloi] between ibem. We must also ttote chat the 
clemenu of the new pioblematique do not strike all people In the same wjy. 
Seme, such as [he dangers threatening tRjr environment, affect mar^ind as a 
whole. Otheti, luchasfhcpcpulaiion explosion In die countries of the South, 
apptir to be of moic naitow concern, but have icpctcuaions of varying 
degrees oi intensity on every country in the world without exception. 

Finally, at the coming turn (^ the century, manttnd is t>verwhelmed by the 
range of the difficulties confronting it from all sides^ overwhelmed - and the 
word Is not too sttong — becau$e the tradidonil structures, govemmenis and 
msDtuQons can no longer manage the pEdblcmj In dicit present dlnncnsions. 
To make things worse, the archaic and unsuitable sEruciure£ are ihernselves in 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



84 • T/xFmt GUM lUvoluam 

the midsT of j ihk moral q{\%\%. The dtnppeannce of vjIuc ^y^iems, the 
qucsikonln^ of uvJlilom, i^collipK of idcoLoglcs. ihe absence of a gbbai 
vision . [he limits of (be current pracOces of demooacy— dll conirlbuEr to thr 
void confronting focietics, [ndividuih ftel helpless, cjughl, js il were, 
between the rise of pievlomly unknown pedis on the ooc hand, jnd an 
] ncjpaciy to rnolvf \hc complex lssu» in dmf jnd itiack the roots of evil, 
not just lis consequences, on [he other hand. 

Suies with consiiiuncRiil bws and rights vkoUie mcemaHonal law 

whenever the matter is solely one -of naoontl iniercsi. This [s not real ly new 
but the magnitude of the consequences In ui interdependent world IS loally 
fKW dnd ^lobilly vJubJc, KcLigitmi ohm sctvc as in ceclik for fnofeldal 
5Uife. ChristUns massacre other Cbrisdans in lielaiid or Lebanon in the name 
ofrehglous beliefs without thij having anything whatsoever to do with faich in 
the Cod of the beatiiudes. How car we not be concerned, along wldi many 
Arabs and Muslims, about the holy wars conducted in the name of Allah, 
which cast no moie than a ihin veil over the ambitions of war -chiefs who lltde 
beed the teachings of the Koran? How can we not wonder, along with many 
Israelis, about the confusion of the religious misiSioii of the people of Israel 
dcsaibcd in the Bibk *ilh the offertstve aftncxaiion polity of a government 
which is shamelessly violating the United Nations laws to which they have 
subscribed, at least In writing^ 

The Taw of the |ungle may have been on the decline, but Its recent 
resurgence shows }ust how ^gile world balance has remained. Such fragility 
lies i\ia in the hc^m ^nd \tx minds of men. the uftimpotnit cid:£ens of 
helpless nations. What we observe today is a general malaise which strikes 
men with stupor, paralysis and unnamed tears. Will we let outselve^ be 
t:rushed by a prob-lcmatique that seems to demand superhuman efforts, when 
wc ourselves are at Itsrom^ Will we let ourwlvcs be turned away fiom the 
real sokes and take refuge in a lite on the margin of society ot in i quest for 
|)ersonal success, ignore our individual sodal responsibility' MusC we abandon 
ourselves to a sort ot fatalism that would consider the slow decline of 

humankind as inevitable or Insutmountable? 

This is the formidable challenge we are ^Ing today. We shall now try to 
examine the possible responses to this challenge. A global challenge IC^UlEO 
a global approach- 



TlinBniKpOurllv«runoul,amJye[ w^dTE ijn^blp to overcome our 

'lablf urge for acqulrinv more dnd more wordly possessions r 

Ad I Shdnkdfdcliaryd 
&6\ century Hfndu pTillosoprt^r dnd uini 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



PartU 



The Resolutique 



Introduction 



Wt rrLfif mJongfr taa for lomorrDif-, ii Kds lo \x invenEed. 



Wha[ coii$Utiif« out ibJllfyTD take cfF'Cctli'c action^ OfBdilvocabulat^doa 
not always suffict to dtFlne new situaDons and new irchnologla. Wc 
somedmes have no choice t>u[ co Invent new woids which expicu new 
concepG ot new mcibodologle;. 

Such was the case of the 'world problemail<jue' > term si^cned by the 

Club of Rome when It W3& founded in VkA. 3[\d the force of fict:^ hi^ m ^de |[ 

universal. Since then, progressively Increasing awareness ol d number of 
elements of the problematlque has led to an unprecedented Intcnutloial 
phenomenon; Increaalngnurnbcrsof conferences, seminars and symposlurm 
In the private as well as the public sector have been prLmarjLy devt^ed to the 
disru&sjon of ^ drvelopmcoi of poof countrlci. I( would rxii be corrnrt to 
say that such meetings have had no rcmiii and no bcnefldal effects. The 
figures published In an official lepoil of the Canton uf Geneva are js follows: 

[n 1977. ^J.ooo experts took part In 1,020 nxcilngs on the Third Wotid, 
reprcsenUng 14,000 worfc sessions The oi luc meedngi can be added Co the 
regular day to day work of the 20,000 international d.vU servants of the 110 
tntcmalional organtalloils that have their headquarters in Geneva. 



I- CumemporarT Frendi phlloKiphci 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



86 • The fmt GMml Eipolution 
Wc mujtal» include the ihousands d mutiiiEi held^iii ihc IMiied Kiiions 

bcadquaitcts Jn New York, Jt the WoiLd B^nk in Washington, by the 
European Community In Btusfebn In the FAO' In Rome ind In counties 
rcgk)nj] ind jubrcgjondl ^g? Jidn eh cbe drvrloping rountrln. Jn thineen 
yoTs, ihfrf has been a runaway Increase in ibe number of meetings of this 
sort jnd no one has ever raalled ihe budgecs thus sunk Into [^c fares, 
luxury hotels and thf pubbcaOon and dlstrlbudon of sundry reports and 
recommenibtions. Not only hu llttlcpf ogress bwn obstrvrd In thf fidd. but 
wc must also acknowledge that poverty, t^m^ic dnd nulnutntkjn hav? 
conUnued Co tnaeasc in a great nuny countries In the South. Aji analogous 
phcromcmm hds been observed more reccndy where aivlronmenfal 
piobiems aic concerned, mvoiving in jncredibie multiplication bciof . 

Without bdng totally exempt from altdctsm in this context Itself, d^ Club 
of Rome noticed that tee was no progress from one meeting to die next, 
with some ETLcetuigs yielding often debatable and sometimes even mediocre 
results. It wu thus felt that ][ was no Longer acceptable, at le^st ^i F^r 3S the 
Club was coiKemed, to speak ot the problematique without formulating 
plans and procedures that would solve the problems set forth and analy^. 
The global approach to problcrru a& required by the problemarique ImpLej i 
need for a corresponding approach with a global perspective at every level of 
society to inieractive solutKjnA destined to xXvt the problems. Therefore, a 
new n^ethodology or a new and purposeful ana^l; intended to be an annver 
to the world probleniatiquc Is cxacdy what dw Club of Rome means to adopt 
and call die wM rw/utuiuc. 

F-rovldlng conaete solutions to the complex problems of the gteat 
transition we are undergoing may be well beyond our capacities but It Is our 
duty, at least unto ourselves, to search for solutions and saaiegles which lead 
toeffidcncy and equity. We musitakc the IniUitivc In overcoming situations 
diat: die blocked by LnKm^Oonal dnd naUonal buietuoKks, and by 
conventional and negative attitudes to change Our task In also to encourage 
social and human innovation which, whe-n compared to its cousin, 
technological Innovation, has definitely been treated ^i j poor relation of ifie 
family. We would like to emphasize once a^ain thai by the term 
'tTKilullque', we are not suggesting a znetiiod of ^ttjcking all the elements of 
the problematlque at the same time in all iheir diversity. This- in any case 
would be imposlble , Out ptoponl Is rather a sbmulcaneous attack on Its main 
elerrrenti with a careful comideridon in each case of redproal 1mpaa& h^^m 
each of the others. 



\ Focd Jnd A^culnirr Or^uJailon [of UN) 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal 



The Resduu^ui: Introduition * 87 

Whai arc the valircs and goals on which action must be hascd' The world 
rcsdutjque includes the need for adopting ccitain values Founded on the 
iMoM vataD ot humanliy. that are sketcbll^ emerging as a moral cdde for 
Klion ind bchdvkiur. Sudi codn and vdlu« hive Lo constitute the bash of 
IntemalLonal reldbons dnd the source of in^ii iration for decisions made hy ibe 
main saors on diis pbnet, ^vith duf regard toi culimj] diver^my jnd 
pluralism. The resolutique also sucs^cs die absolute necessity Co seek concrete 
results In pdorky areas oftheproblematiqur, keeping In mtnd that the time 
factoi is becoming essentia]. Any problem thar remains unsolved pioduces in 
due couisc Ittevpislble sliuaQons, some of which unnot be solved even In a 
global framework . 

The Club of Rome and Its Individual members have always felt tha.1 apart 
from their research work they also had to take the Initiative or become 
associated with others. Fot: Instance, the Club members are involved In the 
[ntemadonal Institute for Applied Systems Analysis {.IIASA), the Foundadon 
fct intctnaQonil Training (FlTI and mote rcccncly^ in the Jntcrnad<wl 
Paitneiship Initiative ilPI J We must also mention the Sahcl Operation against 
desertificaDon and in favour of development, with the Involvement of the 
local populabons. which was designed and launched al the request of a 
number of African leaders during the Club of Rome meeting at Tuundc, 
Cameroon in 1986. 

The use of the resoluuque applies to urgent action on prlarines and 
Immediacies. This does not exclude other types of acnon, which though not 
Immpdiacplynecrsury, can aim foi long teim results. In [he lifting uLiutJons 
of the present, there \i a paramount need to develop methods of decision 
making In conditions of uncertainty. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



7> The Three Immediacies 



The myn^d ^iiands -of change which togfihrr arc constituting thp world 
:cvoluDini hive to be undcrsioodp rcldCcd, oppa^d. encaufagcd , diverted co 
other ch^nncts. or Gs^] mi Idled. Thtre can b? no umpk solution or package ot 
sotutions tothe tangle of probtems. K-ence we Introduce the co7K:epE of ihe 
resoludque, an approach which con&isD oFa sim ultaneous and comprehensive 
attack on die main problems a! cLvr^ kvd. It is coherent in that it arrempts to 
look at the consequences of possible solLilk>ns to particular elementi of 
difficulty on all levels, oi as- many levels as possible. No comprehensive 
mcchodology exists foi such an approach; li runs counter to traditional 

raediods of planning, and existing instirudoiul snuaures nt ^Ingubrly 

inappropriate for it. Yet there l^ no aliemaOve. To tackle the gbbal 
ptablematlque pioblenx by problem and on a country-by country basis can 
only worsen the situation. The n^'^l' chat faces us Is, therefore, to grasp a 
ihoosand netdes at once. 

|[ IS icuc thdt much thought has been given in recent years to the 
management of complexity, and some elements of a sultabJe approiach 
have emerged, in particular, jay Forrester's studies of large systems, 
described Ln his books, Ufian Du^tnia' and Incdu^nd^ D^mu^' ^which led to 
Tlir Uiiii^ to Qicvlh] have much to offer, as also Ln ^jplema die DnEix' by 
|acqu« Lcsoufne, 



1. FoiTftCci. I*i9 

2. Foircjtei. 1061 
i. I,c«umc. L9J3. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



Missing page 



The Thrte ImmtduKtes • 91 

bf camt mort and mor? capital imoislvc jnd r^uircd fewer workei5- 

Thus, even the parttdl Liquid jiion oi [be ums Induidy brings m^n^ 
pEoblcms, and quick conversion of piano and of whole IikIuaTtIm xq the 
production of omsiirner md odier clYlUin goods has to be conskleted 
uigcndy. In the USSR and China, large scale dcmobilladon and conversion 
effo-ns have been Inlctiied a» a maoet of nadonal policy jnd dlrrctrd, as 
expected, by die centre In bolh these countries ihece was jn enormous 
scarcity of conjumer goods, agncultur^E machineiy. Tnedical equipment, 
machine tools, and die like, so that conversion Erom arms production to the 
produojon ofsuch goods was seen as highly desuabler Such endeavours have 
ubcn plicc in conditions of minim^J. pubhc jccounablllty and economic 
chaos, giving little usfful experience tocountiles with a market economy r [lis 
certain, however, that the retraining of soldiers and armamenc wt^kers to 
provide them with new skills and new jctitudes is diffkuLi and insufficient. 

te contrast. In the Western market -economy countries, only Sweden has 
developed an kcIvc policy of conversion; moac of die other* have adopted a 
wjlt-and^sec attitude- Nevertheless the conversion issue Is being discussed 
actively in most European countries, except In France despite the htx that 
much of LIS weapons manufacturing tapidiy, mosdy state owned, is already 
lying idle, 

Convecsion of arrns plants to constiucUve civil uses is thus the currently 
accepted remedy, but in the industrialized countnes this presents m^ny 
difficulties. Existing ^^aa fsirc attitudes assume that the market forces will t^ke 
arc of the mnsition. This may be so, but the mafor consequence Is likely to 
be a lot of waste ^- resulting ^m abandoned and unwanted plants and 
extensive unemployment. State owiied n:ianufaciurlng labilities and 
conuacton chat have served the needs oF the military foe long are often 
lnca.pablc of handling new manufactures in a market environment. Grassroots 
anion on [he part of employees, n^e unk)ns, local communities, jihI so on, 
holds out some hope In a few countries, but is unlikely to secure sufficient 
Institutional backing in the absence of clear governmental policies. DItea 
intervention by the state is unlikely and wouU in my case be Imptacdcal 
because of bureaucratic rigidity. HowcveTn the state must play an acdve lole. 
in view of the jctlous nature of the priority changes involved. The snccesis of 
any compiehenslve convetsion schenv will depend heavily on the availability 
of extensive retraining bdllties which -only governments can provide. It may 
wel] be that governments will be forced Into taking action by the pressure of 
public opinion and giassroots agltadon. This ts anotbec example of the need 
kn people's power. 

The question must now be raised as to what the products of the convened 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



TTk Three Immedtaiia • 93 

Wto A bewildering technological nightmare, impenetrable even to the 
decision -mjking polsEklans. These scientists are isolated behind walls of 
scciccyr They live dnd wozli outside the InCematJonj] wentlfic community. 
Aldvjugh duy must include nuny of the best brains, their nam« are largely 
unknown. Unlike other scientists, tbdr Eewards and presdge do not come 

from sflistf of jchievement arvd the rwpcct of their pwrs In the inwmaaonal 

scientific community, but from competitive success within their restricted 
circle. 

Whatihenwillhappen to these people in J sitLution of disarmament' Will 
ihcy be convened and )otn the ranks of academic and indiisiiialsclenusts, or 
wdl diey remain ai ih^ir work , devising still more deadly weapons, hopefully 
never TO be used r U is too early to say, but till now the letter seems to be the 
most likely outcome, probably coupled wid^ decreasing employment dnd 
resources. The l«0 yearbook of SIPRI Lthe auihoniatJve Stockholm 
Intcmanonal Peace Heseatch InsOtute) asserts that there Is no evidence Eh^i 
iher« will be i slower pace of technological dev«lopmeni in the milttary arej. 
This key element of armament manufacture IS largely outside publicscrucinv 
and concern . Since It withdraws so many of the best scientific and engineering 
brains from fully amstrucUve acuvicy, it ls Imponani that this matter js 
discussed and the situation made known to all. 

In conclusion on this theme, wc summarize some sugg'estlons for action. 

Feat of nuclear war between &k superpowers has receded, but die limited 
use of chcmicji. biologicjl and nuclear weapons in loal wars remains in 
alarming possLblhty . It is widel y believed that several counuies alr-eady posses^ 
a hidden nuclear capacity. We suggest therefore that a new appeal be made 
for fidiicftnu it ikt nfn-fjohfnaiioii iJtil^. and for willingness on the part of the 
signatortestoaccepi tnternationalmspecnon. We also plead for a speeding up 
of nfgotidDt?tis iimfd u destroying research on chemical and biologtcal 
weapons. 

In vtcw of recent agreements on diurmament and the prospect of further 
progress in diis area- we appeal to all governments with sizeable but dec fining 
arms industries to msututeiVliKfffkvt/iTrElvrUfrrKiiUn of these. Can we hope 
that thh reconvcr^icin will be to the mdnufacture of products th^i will 
contribute to the health and welfareofd^ir people' Such policies should be 
evolved and Implemented wjth the advice of bodies which include 
progressive mdustriallsts ^and not only those from aim-amenl manufacture) 
together with worker$' reptesentatlvcs and government officials. The 
conversion policies should be shaped in recognition of the chiinging 
nature of Industry and with due regard to the conslrarnts imposed bv 



Auteursrechteljjk beschermcf matenaal 



94 • The Fmt Global R^voiutwn 

cirth-wdrrtiing and othcr cnvJroEiiH?ntdl hlurdsr In aU &uch Khrmn in 
cucntial clement should be the srning up of leiiaining schemes to provide 
workers with the necesuiy new skills. 

In con&idcrlng the ridtpii^ni sf iinamal ani elhu TOMna scl Eecc by 
diminished military expenditure- governments should give priority to the 
Imptovcmcm ot ihc socUl ^miautc. In p^tUcul^r. grc^i tffor b i\^ requited to 
Improve the quality of educdllon. in order to provide cttzens with the 
knowledgeindskilknecesssry For achieving fulfillment In work and Insure in 
the new woild which is emcrgmg. Instriving For world harnnony, part oE the 
resources should be used Eo augment existing assistance to development ud 
For tFie alleviation oF world poverty. 

The present historically signlFlcant situation of t^ittAt should be used to 
reveal and curtail the evils oF the arms trade. In]9£6, the president oF the Club 
of Rome, on the bails oFflmcmofandumswi by Eduatd Peiicho Pttsldcm 
Reagan and General Scaetary Gorbachev, put forward j proposal foi chc |omt 
action o-f the Two supcipowcis m llmlDng the sale oF arms to the poorer 
coumiics While there wa$ only a formaUcknowlcdgcment from the White 
House, a personal and -constiuctvc reply was scnT by Mi Gorbachev, 
folbwed by a mcmorandgm oF fgrxbci [cflcctions On \\k sup^esuwl The 
correspondence was given Full coverage by the press and television m USSR 
and East Europe, but was hardly noticed by the press in the West It seems to 
iJMhatihcilmel!T]pefo[[hcrevl«lofthlsp[oposal,natonlyin[hcLJSAand 
USSR, but also m other major aims exporting countiies- Recent events 
demonstrate the Futility of the evil iradeandhowilcanhave a lethal backlash 
when the turnof events gjvcs rise to unforeseen conflicts. One has onl y to cite 
the success of the Fiench manufactured Exocet missiles in sinking British 
ba ttleshi ps during the Falklandswdi. or the situation oF the ti oops oF Western 
and Arab countries in Saudi Arabia . facing Iraq's sophisticated weapons sold to 
them bv the Russians, the French and the British among orheis. To sell gun^ 
for Immediate moncuty gam to buyers who may inicnd lo kill the scllci 
seems to be the uliJmaie insanity. 

In rhe long run. if rhe security of the planet Is to be assured, the 
manufacture of arms For the ecor^omic gain oF individuals or countries will 
have to be conttolled. ILesidual needs For world policing will have to be 
provided under the supervision of the United NjDon^. T\\\i may not be 
required for tomorrow, but there Is nevertheless a need for an early review 
of the whole pioblem , all die moce so since the confrontations in the Persian 
Guif will have long term consequences. 

Tffwayds an envavnntmt ^ ivrpjval 

Most of the successful activity in recent years for the pioienion of the 



Auleursrechteiijk beschermd materiaal 



TheThtcImnvdviaa '95 

pnvironmmthas be? n in rtdudng or ? limiruCing pollution and othf r ^orms of 
dfCcnoratiofi; lE hjs bftn curjilvf rallvr th^ prrvcnOvf . Whilf this must 
conclnuc, the mafn emphasis In the future mmt be in piCTcnting The 
development of the mjcropollutton which wc- have dcsciibcd earlier, to the 
level at which Its effecls are irrei/ersible. By hi the most urgent of thesf Is 
global warming which chicaitni (he world's Nonomic ^nd ioaal jyflnn. 

PrevenDOf] of globdl waiming tepc«eni± dik of the grcjtea chaJlengn 
which humdniiy his f^ed.jnddenuTid&inlmerrLJtional effort. Four linn of 
jiQck aie lequiied: 

— redMcqofl of rhe global emission qf arbtti dioxldcj which will man d 

reduction In the lase of fossil fuels; 

— affbrestatjon, especially m :hccn:»plcs- 

— development of a hemaOve umrces of energy; 

— conservation of energy and the dcvclopmcm of grcaict efficiency in Its 
use 

We f hall bax out diKusion of tile c^ibon diaxidc situatjon on die Toronro 

changing atmosphere' target of reducing emiuion of this gas by 20 per ceni by 

the year 20OS However- In view of the urgent need of the developing 

countries ro provide energy for their citiiens, and for agriculture and 
industries, the industrialized countries will have to make even larger 
rcduciiDti^ in their use of f«iil fuels — let us uy Kl per cent. Moreover, 
recent estiznates indmic that this is a very conservative figure. 

Initially, the highest prbricy musE be given to energy conservitlan and 
efficiency in the transmission and use of energy In every sector of die 
economy.Therearevery large potential savings to be made which would, in 
^ny case, be economically UKful and jDaiegically necessary it^ view of the 
v;.tne:abllity of the industrial countries to the cutting off of oil supphes. In 
general, the market forces should be helpful here, but at present, incentives 
are insufficient and will have to be increased There are also many nor 
market barriers to energy con^rvaDon In the domcsnc sector, for example, 
the per capita consumption of energy in USA arxl Canada is approximately 
double that of the West European countries with an approximately equj 
valent standard of living- To achieve the necesury savings here will require 

fundam^nuil char^ge! in the habits of millions of Individuals, i i^ue&iion eo 

which we shall return later. 

The immediate need, therefore, is for the launching of a massive 
worldwide campaign to pron:>oic energy conKrvation and efficiency in tt^ 



Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd matenaal 



96 • Tht Bra GU^tai Revoiutifm 

UK, This alone can give us some breaihing spjce before wc hcc di? iTure 
inciactabic problems of tndustilil d<i|ijSTmcni. To be successful k wlj] need j 
deirly expressed political will on the part of governments and suaiig public 
suppoti, 

Swtiching from oil and coal toother fuels hu jIso been suf^ested, but apart 
from natuial gas there are few altemaDves which couid be brought Into use 
quIckly^ Naiuial gas ha^ the advani^ thai m combusuon die methine 
tnoltCuif pi^uCcs les& carbon dlojtide per unit of energ'y genented as 
compared to the bngcr chain hydtocatbons of oil ^nd coal. Convctslon to 
ruturjl ^s Is relatively simple, so this may bca useful measure , aliho^jgh ^rcat 
care would have to be \Akcv\ to prevent leakage, since methane i& itself a 
greenhouse gas, being much more active nwlecule hy molecule than carbon 
diOKldf. 

ThcK ate, however r only palliatives or delaying measures , The 
Fundamental l^uc Js hoMF to achieve a nussTve jcducdoci in fosil hjel 
combusOon tn industry. ]t is frequently Jtsted that the transltktn lo the 
post-industna] society will lead to considerjble energy saving. Ei is □'ue rhar 
chc miaocleotonic techmlogin dtc not energy Lnt^nsive, jnd thai their 
main applications are in the growing, imponani iniornuEton seaor, rather 
than in heavy ii>dus try where, however , thtough control techniques they can 
contribute gceatly to energy erficlcncy. We have to cemember. after all, that 
^n an Infotmatlon domlrtated society we shall still need heavy machinery, 
chemicals arul othc^ f^diOonal manntactuTCSj |ust as agricultural products 
were still needed after the Jndustrial Revolution had l^en over. 

Reduction in the use of fossil fuel bv industry, M. least in the ^liort and 
medtum term, requires ekther considerable technological mnovaQon, both in 
manufaauring methods and in the energy efficiency of those in present use, 
or else a drastic reduction in Industrial activity. This last would necessitate a 
radical reonenQEion t>f the ecoriomy taking into account the intricate 
relatkjnships of economic activity, ecology and technology. Thi& is not a task 
which govemmcfiB can be cjtpecwd to perfbtm effectively: It cjIU for new 
forms of government industry cooperation. Hae the Japanese model may 
have something to teach the West. 

A number of European countries, nottbly Norway, Sweden and the 
Netherlands, are already discussing these problems seriously and determining 
largcc^ foi [hdr national contribudtvis towards thf rrducnim of the global 
carbon dioxide. SMreden, tor example, has undert^en to maintain carbon 
dioxide emissions at ine ^-9SS level . while retaining its policy of phasing out 
nuclear power, tiow these targets can be achieved Is another matter. These 
Initiatives ace Indeed a useful start and similar exercises are needed m other 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



TheThne imtnediaaa • 97 

countries, Coordiodt-ed cFfons jIso r^Jst di the InKmabonal level and ^r? 
already being ^^udicd by (be EB:. The sociaJ and economic oim&e^juenccs-ota 
dnsnc cuning back of IndusQlal acDvlLj are alarming and wiJl be lahen up 
later 

The influence of die devebping counoies on [he environmenr uill 
increase rapidly with dfTMgraphic md indumial growth, and diey witl have 
ID share the burden of &ubili2lng die gbbal cbmaie. Development In these 
oiuntrlH wiil inevitably inaease the demand [or energy and much of this an 
only be provided by fossil fuels. The Increased use of blomass through new 
biotechndogi^s 1^ hoped for, but wemu^remembrr thdEthEstoogenerdln 
carbon dioHkde. Apin increaffdnumfjcn will mean gieat^t use of wood foi 
domesDcpuiposes,uid the burning of wood hjsigreicei green fiouseeflea 
than chat of coaJ. lincigy efficiency h thus oi primary Jmpoicance in the 
developing countries too. So Br, Endustiializatkin In these countnes hs been 
modelled on the pattern estabLidicd by the lE^ustrlaUzed counnies of the 
North, If thmgs continue in (his way. the rnulo will be diustious for the 
courttries in question and for the woikJ ai a whole. It Js therefore tmporunt 
ihaTi the impioved cleaner technologies that the Industtiallzed countries are 
striving tor are made accessible to the c^eveloplng world, mcEniives given for 
their adoption < and aid offered in their irnplemeniation^ 

So far we have CDnccntiated on ca[bondto:ildc, die cU»k greenhouse giSp 
bul a wfurle range of other minor components of the atmcisphcre contribute 
ibo HI an equal e:iient to the greenhouse eEfecc, Methane Is one of the most 
importani among these, and its origin requires much nnre research. Oxides 
at nitrogen arc also critical. Their malE^ soutce Is ftom agticulture, especially 
fram the present excessive uK of feitJitzers. This also laises the question of 
energy use In agfjculture, which has increased gready in recent decades. 
Theie is a pressing need for the agricultural author lites to take up the question 
of making their Industry much less energy mipnslve md of iCTcning to more 
organic systems. Thts-lsalso desirable because oil prices, and herxe the price 
of nitrogenous feitlllzeis, ate likely to be much higher in the coming years 



Whjtpver I fffg ^rr ttw, Earth, may flrat Fi^vpqukk gnjwth again, O 

purffkr, may are not j^iure [hy vit^l^ or rFiy h«drt. 

Hyinn [othe Ejnh', Arftarvj Vedi^OOO BC 



We have already stressed the need to halt deforesiatlon as the another 
means of carbon dioxide reduction. It Is estlnnated that for the world as a 
wbokp d qudner of the emitted arbon djojiidc tcmdins due to dcforestaDon; 
wj[hin the developing countries taken as a whole, it is one half and li Laim 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



The Three Immaiiaaes • 99 

measuring, Eorciampk, tht cipKilyotcounErinroFsuppoctiti^humin jnd 
anJrrul popuL^iion^, oi the vUbilliyothumin and oihes ^y^t^ms. The belipF 
dut monciary management or even manlpulaUon can lead to a proper 
accounting and evaluation of groWiih and development needs to be 
eradlcaied^ 

Energy, w the other handnlj the dMujng force In an economy; ffloncyis 
simply lis surrogate. There is surelv i strong jrgunient at thissQgeof hunun 
development tor deivising a new economic cheory bsed on lEic flow of 
eneri^y. We hear many propo^^h for energy r^xatjonwhkh arc prompted by 
present difficulties. Thoe demand comidcmion. Intctctlng ptopin^l^ have 

ilso been m^de fot cacigy to be UKd n the bsiti fot general lajtation, both 

rutEonal ^ local Many posLblllifei arc ^^ning up In this new field, and the 
Clab of Rome has pioposed i nudy on the various suggesOons for energy 
taxation for ihe purpose of cocitroUlng the energy camumpilon in tbc North 
and ensuing diat in the South development should be on the basis of clean 

cnergy- 

]n concluslCRi on this tfieme, w/c summarize some sugge^clons for acnon. 

It IS urgent that a worldwiJe campaign ior energy conservdtkjn and 
efficiency In Its use be launched. To be succeuful. this will require that world 
leader; strongly ejiprcu their convlcQon dial this Is nece^sarv jnd show die 
pollDcal wilJ to implement It. ft would be appropriate that the scheme be 
liurKhcd by the United Nations In association widi the UnJied Nations 
Envitonmenr Progrunme [UNEP), the World Meierologial Organlzanon 
andUnescOr A corollary would be the xtttng up In each country of an Energy 
Efficiency Council to supervise the operation on the national scale. 

The global nature as well as the seriousness of the environmental crisis, 
especially that of ear^ warmlngn indicates the need for a coherent and 
a)mprf hrtuivc artack at die iE^temational Irvrl jnd n ±e level cif the United 
Nations. Wc require much more Information about the complexities of the 
natural system and specifically on the detailed mechanism of the greenhouse 
and ozone deplenon effects. Equally, an estimate of the probable tmpaa of 
these and oihcr phenomena on the future climate of particular regions is 
uigcndynccesMry.Wcareixnconvlnccd. however, thai thoc requirements 
for research, development and monltoilng argue for the creation of yet 
another UN Agency 1^ need could be met by strengthening the existing 
agecKles. especially those mentioned above, and by glvlrig them a mandate to 
enable them to cooperate In i pindy planned- compicbcnsivc programme of 
research. 

Even more urgeni is the need to create a competent high level body to 



Auteursrecfitelijk beschermd matenaal 



100 • The First GUAtU H/rvoianon 

consider in depth and ov« 2 long nm< fram? . the impact of the micro 
pollution phenomcnj on the economy, the society jnd che indivlduil. In vJcw 
□f the nature of the Tnmy ^ceii of this problem and the coTnpleKtty of the 
Intenction^ between them, it is hird to see how this couJd be accomplished 
cfFccdvely In ihe conventional mmneiH hy a gtoup of poUdcal p^sonilttie; 
sitting In New York. We suggfU, ihpiefoic, that (he opportunliy should be 
oken to breik with indlban In cieadng a group oF outstanding persons— 
pollocilfigures.^o, but idnfcffccd by IndlvlduaU from the fields of Industry, 
economy and sdcnce. Et Is not sufBclcncthata^up consisting exclusively of 
polltidaos should be chaiged with thh a^k, thar 1$ so vital foi the future of 
humanity t no mtvxx how well briefed chey mtght be, by scirniMs dnd oihea 
in their various countiieSr [t Is necessary [or independent experts to sit with 
ihem aiound the conference tible. Churchill dtd nocgei It quite right when 
be Slid th^t scientists should be on tip bui not on cop.' 

Security IS no longer exclusively a mitier oEprevHiiionof uvar, Itieverslble 
ctivutinmcnui dn^rucdon Is becoming ^ ^^ucii 10 world sccuilty tn the utac 
magnitude. To meet the Eteeds expressed abovt. we dierefore lelteiate the 
reconun«ndatlon In the Club of Etome dcdantlon of I089 that 3 workl 
fonfcrenceon the common envlronmentaT iitiperativ^s be held, aimed II the 
creation of a Ut^ Environmental Security Council, pariliel la the cuisUng 
Security Council EormlllQiymatieEs. This body would not be lestilcted to the 
members of the existing Security Council, but would have a strong 
representation from the dcveloptng countries as well as the nonpolincal 
members siiggrsted eitlicf who would uke jn active prt \n die discussions, 
but would nolp however, be voting members. If not constituted earlier, this 
could be a ma}or duel: Qme of the United Nations ConfererKe on Envtronznent 
and Develc^mcnl to be bekl kn Brazil kn 1092, 

Inaddinon. we propose theoiganiucion, pos&ibly under the auspkcsof the 
EnvlronmenQl Security Couiudl, of regular meetings of IikIusctUI Icukn. 
bankers and government officials from the five contlnentj. These Global 
Development Rounds, er^visaged as being somewhat similar to the Tariff 
Etounds of CATT, Aould discuss the need to harnioniTe competition and 
cooperation in the light of envlroruncntal constraints. 

The piobknu of dd|u&imem to the ic»cncd use of fossil fuels nctcKiatci 
the drawing up of national strategies In order to ascertain the fixed 
concnbuiion of e^bcDutitiy to global carbon dioxide. This will also Involve 
comideradon of -how ■□ design modified processes arid equipmcntn atx] the 
sdmulaHon of research and development programme for clean energy 
systems We propose theccfoic the aeatioci- partkularly In the Induscriallzed 
countries, ofNaOotuI Centres for Clean Technology. These might well be 



Auteursrechtelijk bescherind matenaal 



The Three Immcdtaaes • LOl 

organized in assodadon with c}m rudonaJ eneigy cfBdcncy coundb propo4cd 
above. 

The urgent need for jn Inlcmlvt cEion to develop allcmaDve energy 
&0U1CC5 10 paniatl)/ replace bsJl fueU demand} an immedlaie and massive 
wotld cfFon. Wt rtcommcnd- therefore, ihai the Unlied NaUom- either 
direftly OT through a group of lU agerv^ii^ aivd piograrrtmes, ihoiiid fOHvene 
an Inicr-govcmmentaisciennELc meeting 10 plan dcomprehensivcAlteinanue 
Energy World Project This would enuil considerable rinancial expenditure, 
with the vatkius element oE an intecTiationjIly agreed programme being 
carried out by d^ tatxx. appropriate centres of ncellence^ In the world, 
Irrespealvp of the counir>i in whith. [hey are iltuated. The mattfr 1c so 
imponani to the ^vorld. and the need \a cmpby rhc bey brains ^nd 
equipment so cucntidl, that all prirKiples of a n^oiulqiikdproquo between 
contributions and bcrxflts would have to beeiduded. \ network connecting 
thcexisdng centres orexceJlence1shl^lyrecomn!>cnded as oppo^io the 
construcOon of a single Iniarutlonal centre with its Incviablc rigidities and 

burauoacles. The nuclear fission option should b« kept open as an 
emergency measure to meet energy lequiremcnts during the transltkmai 
phase. 

The FAO should be In^tted Ir association wJlh the Consultative Croup of 
[[iftituus 0^ Agr^cuitutjJ Ete^eaich ^CGIARJ to undertdkc a Audyon cncLgy 
used in agriculture, with a view to recommending means of reducing energy 
inputs tn agricultuic and, at the same timcn of lessening the share of 
agriculture m the emission of grcenhcrase gases. 

All these measures or any ocher equivalent actions cannot be Implemented 
unlns the public Is well Intotmed and understands the conscquerKes of 
InactloUr It js neceuary, therefwe, that concepts of global dcveic^ment. 
Including the issues of Industrialization, \x integrated Into educauonai 
piosnmmcs which will Include tnstructkin on environmental pnxeokjn, 
energy and resource saving, the preservation of cultural values, and nuny 
other aspects. We therefore call on Ur>cso3- Manistcts of EdiKatJon. parents' 
associations, television authorities, md odiers to undertake this essential task 

/3oT/op«vwf vrrim Mti4(nk^ tiff men 

The third immediacy Is a crucial element In the first global revolution 
A number of countries of the South are in a constant scaie of detenoraDon for a 
nun:^ber of causes which we will analyse later. According to World Bank 
estimates UOQO). one billion human beings rn those countries arc presently 

living belo* the poverty line - with an Income of lc» than USt "0 » yeai - a 
opposed to 500 million in the early dghOcs. It is i^ry likely that die 



AuteursrechtGlijk beschermd matenaal 



102 • The First GMmiRfPviuaim 

aggnviboil of the [»obleEtu ai undfrdfvflopment, poverty, ^minc uMJ 
malnualbon will pctsfsc iJi the coining yeta. desplK ihe building up oizona 
o[ circcpckmal develi^nicni. 

Here tt Is Importani Co keep in mind che dlFFereni economic levels from 
which these countries soned out. ^incc. 35 has been stiessed In dils book. Ii Is 
no longer corrca Co neat the so ailed Third World as homogeneous. 

In pjitkcular, weir? conternedaboulf be leisi developed naironi,mo^[ of 
whidi ire in Afcka. md many of which gurted iheii Lndepoidcncc From die 
colonial powers only in die posi World Wn II pcnod. The&e countries either 
hid CO son from sctaich, Of iccempi to conveit i colonial economic structure 
Inix) one which had to be otienccd more cleaiLy co dome^dc needs and 

national Jntcrests. This entailed diversifying both exports jnd sourcn of 
financial support. 

The NlCs [Newly IndmTrlalized Couniiies) of Asia have lad i different 
experience, bued on a ^cp^rdtc strategy, and have been remaikably 

successful in jdapting to the world economy and In raisfng ihcix own Ijving 

sDndards. Other countries, particularly India and China, have quite different 
charicterlsdcs from the least developed countries and the dynjinic market 
economies of the hdfic Rim. The Latin American counErie^ with 1 ]aag 
history of independence arc nevertheless highlv dcpendcnE on trade In basic 
commodiites. At [he ^^me dme. In seven! mafor ases. chev are undergoing 
raptd industrtalizatlcRi. Among the ijOa Amencan counLries, a few notably 
wti\i economics are siniilar to the lean developed countries of the world. 
THi Ii also true of the sirall Island suics of the Cinlbcan. 

\n4dt^tittiti if itvdofJUdfl phiia in iht ftli\ Ivcnl^ m^Tir Many of (hf least 
de'/eioped economies were encouraged to stact out by investing in huge 
Industrial and Infristnictural prefects Involving high construction cosG based 
tRi the <apiiaL intensive Wc^icin model, fhcy thereby seriously neglected 
bsic rural and small industry development that could have brought 
Immedtare benefit to laigc sectlcms of the popuTailon, In^teid of to only a 
smaTlminonty of Industrialists. Manyofdiose large investments have failed In 
thcLr objectives of development PolLCLCiadoptcdltom the Western industrial 
countries have often cla^ied with local customs and. structures, and have been 
teieaed by the very people they were supposed to benefit- People oriented 
developmeni was set aside, in favour otprofecis that only rich countries could 
afford. Not only wu this \tic result of th? desire of leaders to achieve 
extremely rapid transfbrmaUon of their economics and societies, but it was 
akded. abetted and often proposed by Iniemauorul agencies and bilateral 
North -Sou [h programmes. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



ThtThntlmmaliadti • 103 

5uch poLdH It JVC roulicd im series of projects of long durations whfch, 
among other ibcngs. have lounged m^j caunuics into debt and financul 
d^order, with litilc folid benefit. Outsundfng imong theK have been the 
Urge dams, of which A^wan^n Egypt is d Leading examplCp and many more 
eximpln could be pointed out in African Asia and Ladn America, There has 
been a CibLogue of djusiers. With pAS l«i»OiU b«lng t>dther learned iv^ 
understood, hur^reds of duusands of people displaced atid Idi horncles, 
water -borne epidcn^ dlsea^o dissemjnaied, and local environment 
disrupted. The ecological and human disastris which }uve frequently 
resulted from [hese large projKti have caused unprecedented financial waste. 
Macro project &uch as Itj^pu m hinA and the Nainjad^i pn^ica In [ndia lit 
also lelhng examples, lion and sceel Industries, petrochemical ard 
^ipbuilding mstallatlans. have mainly proved uneconomkeal and have come 
in for much criticism. IMost of these protects have also given too lltde 
consider Jtton lo probable environnvnial damage, to the effects o\ population 
displacement, manpower needs, mainieiiiiKe, and x on. 

in many Ciscs. even In the semi 'industrialized countries, mdtiHnai 
devdopnientbaKd on irnporrsubsrltudon policies requiring extremely high 
tariff and non ta.tiff protection, has produced great disparioes between the 
modern seaors and the traditionally poor rural sectors. As a result, 

populd^ions have drifted to the big clQcs w provide cheap labour- pining the 

already vast numbers of marginalized labourers also originally from rural areas 
living \n subhuman conditions. 



■Hunser is jshamed of no on? dnj] does not fnr God. Only organlaed 
and conscious work can nukr it retreu. 

a farmer in EUirkina Ytao 



Iht ftijlt vt iht iluiTfj. \ki ftMlni und iht btdtmvtlUir The urban population of 
developing countries rose from ninety million in lOOO to rtearly one billion in 
19S^ and has since been rising al a rale of ever forty million per year. 
Two-thirds of the population of Latin America is concentrated in urban 

aiea5 while urbanization ill Africa Inaciscd fiom i rate of 5 pci cent in 1900CO 
:5 per cent In l^S^ 6^ per ceniof the world's total urban population lives in 
Asia, where the evolution of the rate of urbaniation IS comparable )□ that of 
developed counciles According to the latest United Nations estimates, the 
numberof city dwellers u^ll be about two billion by the yeat 2C00, wtth a 100 
per cent mcrease in Africa, a 5D per cent increase In Latin America and a AS per 
cent irKTease in Asia. There are a number of reasons for this. 



Auleursrechlelijk beschermd materiaal 



ThtThntlmmaliadti • 103 

5uch poLdH It JVC roulicd im series of projects of long durations whfch, 
among other ibcngs. have lounged m^j caunuics into debt and financul 
d^order, with litilc folid benefit. Outsundfng imong theK have been the 
Urge dams, of which A^wan^n Egypt is d Leading examplCp and many more 
eximpln could be pointed out in African Asia and Ladn America, There has 
been a CibLogue of djusiers. With pAS l«i»OiU b«lng t>dther learned iv^ 
understood, hur^reds of duusands of people displaced atid Idi horncles, 
water -borne epidcn^ dlsea^o dissemjnaied, and local environment 
disrupted. The ecological and human disastris which }uve frequently 
resulted from [hese large projKti have caused unprecedented financial waste. 
Macro project &uch as Itj^pu m hinA and the Nainjad^i pn^ica In [ndia lit 
also lelhng examples, lion and sceel Industries, petrochemical ard 
^ipbuilding mstallatlans. have mainly proved uneconomkeal and have come 
in for much criticism. IMost of these protects have also given too lltde 
consider Jtton lo probable environnvnial damage, to the effects o\ population 
displacement, manpower needs, mainieiiiiKe, and x on. 

in many Ciscs. even In the semi 'industrialized countries, mdtiHnai 
devdopnientbaKd on irnporrsubsrltudon policies requiring extremely high 
tariff and non ta.tiff protection, has produced great disparioes between the 
modern seaors and the traditionally poor rural sectors. As a result, 

populd^ions have drifted to the big clQcs w provide cheap labour- pining the 

already vast numbers of marginalized labourers also originally from rural areas 
living \n subhuman conditions. 



■Hunser is jshamed of no on? dnj] does not fnr God. Only organlaed 
and conscious work can nukr it retreu. 

a farmer in EUirkina Ytao 



Iht ftijlt vt iht iluiTfj. \ki ftMlni und iht btdtmvtlUir The urban population of 
developing countries rose from ninety million in lOOO to rtearly one billion in 
19S^ and has since been rising al a rale of ever forty million per year. 
Two-thirds of the population of Latin America is concentrated in urban 

aiea5 while urbanization ill Africa Inaciscd fiom i rate of 5 pci cent in 1900CO 
:5 per cent In l^S^ 6^ per ceniof the world's total urban population lives in 
Asia, where the evolution of the rate of urbaniation IS comparable )□ that of 
developed counciles According to the latest United Nations estimates, the 
numberof city dwellers u^ll be about two billion by the yeat 2C00, wtth a 100 
per cent mcrease in Africa, a 5D per cent increase In Latin America and a AS per 
cent irKTease in Asia. There are a number of reasons for this. 



Auleursrechlelijk beschermd materiaal 



104 • TbcFintGhbaJIUtvlufum 

Ru^jI depopubtjon is consandy bringing sueams oF people Lnto the 
outtkhts of the Urge cjtio. drjvcn hom ihcii bnd by povcny jnd the 
Impossibility of survival, and sornctimes as Jircsukof local wars (some rwenty 
tn Afr<C3 alone] or larger infr^sTiuctural projects causir^ &ie djiptaccmcnc of 
the pop LilatEon , jndsoon IE \i Importancco jccepc, however due il chough 
iuijI depopulation an be siowed down, lc certainly cannoc be flopped. One 
reason is ihat cities exercise a powerful attrjcooTL on the younger section of 
the runt population who wish to flee an unbe^iable poverty; for theie 
youngster?, cities with their relitivc modernity represent hope. Another 
teaion is that iay pro^cu m cbc aicd of agticuEtural production deprives i 
growing pcrccnrtiEC of young prople of thdr work. As It happora! In 
Western countries, they go to theuticsLn the hope oE finding a new kind of 
work, even It H fs only small trades. 

The true fascinailoi] exercised by the big dtfes on people, young jnd 
not so-pDujig. is based on a set of latknaal and irrational human motivatiom. 
A& MdRCi DogiO iiid lohn U. Ki^arda wioK In A W9Mo(Gmi Cj[«': 

The diks act Uke a gigantic la Vegas in ihc sense diat the bulk of their 
populabons are pmblers. though the games ate dlffnent. Iri&tead of 
roulette or blackjack, their names die job security. Individual social 
nubility, better access to educauon for the chkLdren am^ hospitals for the 
sick. Wonderful storicE circulate about the happy ffw who nude It in i big 
way. 

Howeva. coDfronutLon, whrihec <!xpirs^rd in ^ quid at a violent way, \i 
growing between the poor and the rich In developing countries. The Western 
modeJ Ls denounced, yet at the same time is envied Jtkd hated because of the 
impossibility of attaining It, The hatred felt by poor countries Cor the rich Is 
aimed mainly at die West, especially aita most blaisni form In the Irnage of 
the wcaldi and waste of Ameiitan society often seen on television , But It la 
also directed against die ostentation, arrogance and easy lifestyles of local 
elites. 

City governn>cnls Have so fat been unable 10 control the trflow of migrant 
workers and to prcFvide adequate Integration structures, and health and 
education services for a new underclass &ai k vulnerable to all kinds of 
diseases and can take to alt »orts of marginal behaviour such as prostitution and 
drug dcaling- 

TAf HfrJ /«r fupurdridP feUcia We turn again to the central issue of the 



L Dc«^ inf Kannta. IW. 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irrateriaal 



The Tbnr ImtfUiiviaas • lOS 

popul^on rxplo^iorr whkh mu^ have Its place b the retoludque. Af already 
sated, in many tountric* there Is » grim i»ce bcrwccn population giowih jnd 
develcpnjcni 5q much ctpngmk imptOKmcni. achieved al rhe expCTisc of 
so much human etFort Is consumed and Lost by the impact oF tncreaslng 
numbeis. [n hindsLghi, one can onty mux about how piospeious counUJes 

Sikh as India, so well endowed bjj rutufe. would t>e lodiy had they bMn jiblc 
to maintain ihrti eaily cwenifeth cencury populittons^ 

There Is undoubtedly an uigcm r*ecd for ihese countries to adopt sensible 

humanitarian policies of population tcgulatkm. and to encourage Esmily- 
planning me^^urei which would complement the death ^ control 
achi^vemenii ushered in by improved medicine and belter hygiene. One of 
the surest n-ieans of attaining lower fenjlLi^ rates \5 throu^ the spoinlancaus 
prctceuet that fo[]ow economic improucment, but in many places this L$ a 
^t off hope, nude even more distant by the high rate of population growth, 
thus creating a vidou; circle. 
A sclcna^c bttakditough in contnceptivc uxhno^y is alio overdue. e» 

pccially luproiiuclngdieapand ^videly available oral at othci contraceptives 
which would tcilitatc popubinon control. Also the direct coitehtion 
between fertility and female illitetacy needs utgeni attenlujn and rexaich 
Population control, neccsury as it Is. must be planned m terms of hum jn 
well being. U is of paramoum impoiutKc that all counnics flnving fof 
development should pay elose attention to the dcsi^ of their population 
policies. These policies have to be based on a detailed e^tplorabon of the 
demographic growth prospects in tebdon to resource availability and 
development alms. Including the standard of living which each country hopes 
to achieve. Only through an informed asse^im^ni of such prospects ciii 
development planning be reailsDc. If thr public is to resptjnd to population 
control needs, ii must be given sufilcLent information to und^stand the 
dingers of oveepopuJacion foi every Individual and the benefits that would 
flow from rcstramii on population growih. Such condtion.f are nec&sary IJ 
population plaruijng Is to be Implemented fn a humanitarian way. 

Tnr nui far ntw i\ti\cpa 1/ icviltjiatnl. [t Is thus dearly necessary to rethink 
development policies and practices Much greater [wiortty hs to be given to 
the needs of the marginalized and forgotten millions of rural pooi In all paits 
of the underdeveloped world, it is necessary also to go back to first base and 
quesdon the undeilyjng assumption of most development policies, namely 
that the economLC success of the ptesendy Indusirliilzed countries, achieved 
ditough the J)>5lcma[lc pujsult of 1 icdino-logy based economic growth, is the 
Inevluble path that must be follov^ed bv all countries and all cultures. The 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



106 • Thr Fmt Gl<M Rcpoltttim 

newer gcTfcradom In minvcauntnn.'wbEleby-Tiom^ansrelfcting tht ncpd 
For modcrnizdiMm an^ mdtemi Improvement, tnsist on (he need to draw on 
iheiir own Q^tdonsind skills in ere Jiing their ownpjtierm of dercLopineni. 
[mtciilon Is not enough. It is mote impoitant Tor iuch countiies lo develop 
thelT own capacit^n [or scienDik research and irchnologlal transfer, [n a 
period of ra^^ sflcnufi^ ind rcchndogical change m the iivdusmalized 
courirics. ihc linpocunon of oadiUQnal methods of minubaurc cm lad lo 
□bsolewence. It is rcmarkabk that In many countries that boisc of modem 
industry and services, malmitrlttonsndinjterafy are widely prevalem.wldi a 
laige pcrccnugeof the population living tn condlnoni of extreme poverty. 

5omc of ihcx C3KS \a\-c been iku anmo^ -wwh incquiltEV ind 
povcny actually wcnicnmg. It is dear that gtobal development cannot 
conttnue along these linn. A reversalcf these trends, however, abo implies 
radical chinge in the political systems, stability, elJminatKin of corruption, a 
^cnfcng oF prloriOcs based on the needs of future generaitons, and strong 
limitations imposed on the uncontJolLcd spread of cojrupi burcaucridcs. 

In the semi Industrialized countries, especially in those that became heavily 
indebted during die KvenUe^ and e»ghile$, the jd]u$Tmcnts that have had to 
be made to maintain the service of iheir external debt and to reduce inflaboif 
and waste, have forced diem to cancel Urge piojecu, id ledesign their 
strategics, and, pariKulaiLy, lo reduce the scope oFthe public sector and 
provide strong incentives instead to domestic private entrepreneurs , An 
important role can be played by direcr foreign lnv«rmcni in xhis process. 
Mjny of [hesf countrm havp had no altern^uve bui to aeiie condidons 
under which their industries must become hitematlonally competitive, 
folkjwlnp to soir: ejctcni the experience (rfthe Pacific BJm copntrto. This 
process has sometimes been going on atlbeexpense of the domeBtic market 
and with great sacrifice in terms of los of employment and regular salaried 

Incomes. 

We cannot ignore die fact that in many countries, especially In Africa south 
of die Sahara, too low a priority has been given to agricultural Improvement, 
This Ls due pardy to inflated hopes of w^hat might be achieved by 
rndustrialliailon and partly due to die fact that IndusuEes arise mainly in or 
near cities and d:us attract immediate attention. ]n unstable political 
situations, danger to the anihoritles is generated mainly in the urban 
ervironmenl. Disturbance and insurrection can easily be incited among the 
masses of th« msufficienily employed poor. Rural opposition, on the other 
hand, i^ widely dtspecsed over the couotrysbde and Is ihu^difhcult to organize. 
The temptation, therefore, ts to invest in development projects that promise 
employment and slabllitv in the urban areas. The consequence of insufficient 



Auteursrechteiyk bescheMnd materiaal 



ThtTbtttlmmediade! • 107 

agricultural inv«[menE ha& bf en a main olBla<:ic in llw race between Eood 
pfoducUon jnd populauon. growd^. Rurii] developmeni remjmf jct 
unquotlonibie plorllv because the whole populatkm. rural and urban, has 
to be Fed, md countiie^ mu^t aim to become self sufRctent in die production 
of food. 

It must be strongly fmpteflieddiarihc problem of rheorganiuTion of the 

international market for raw m^ierrab has yet [o be solved. IC Is of prime 
Importance to find a -way to ensuie diat (he pilce of raw macetlals Ls not fixed 
by Inietnadonal markets to the benefit of industrialized counoics but to the 
detilmcnc of developing ones, 

U»i rjiiUaUrrt. Bodimihe North and In die South, Insplteofgruthandlaps 
ofnuny wrtt. It Is reniirkable thai the willpower of small groups of men and 
women has managed lo start the move towards bringing about Improvements 
for the lower Income strata bised on thdt own efforts, with apptoprine 
dssistincc from ccnttil and local govcmmcnb. InccmaQoiaJ igcncin, 
domestic and foielgn non- governmental organizations, and new bilateral 
progi*mmes. 

the Club of Rome undertook a latgcsurvcy on die tole of local initiatives in 
the rural areas'. We focus or this field knowing that parallel initiatives in 

handicrafts and small rnimubctprcs In the wtIwp outskirts arc also wcry 

effective and should be encouraged. Large numbers of small development 
pro|eccs in j^hcultur? . health and education have sprung up in the poorest 
parti of Latin America. Africa and km. initialed by MGOs, Indcpcndenl 
cffgaidBtions, ^mers' groups, and ^illjge communities. Acnordmg to 
esnmaces m^de In lQfi5, over one hundred million farmers were involved In 
development projecl^ headed by one or several HGOs. The movemenl Is 
growing rap]dly. 

Todjy. NCOS In die South exi&t by ihe thousands in It^dia, thr Philippines 
and South America, ^nd by tbc hundreds In Arrlca. Indonesia aixl Thalbnd. 
And although their histories are different, they are all participating In a 
common effoii. with onlya few lesouices and some backing ^xqn NCOS In 
the Northn to meet needs that are the same everywhere: the basic needs of 
food, cledn wdier and h^iene. They uc also helping village dwellers lo 
real Ize what their problems are and to participate in a siluation where diey can 
take responsibility for thetr own development. This means getting die 
villagers organised and oalned. and getting everyone involved. Including 
worTien, ouicastes and the disabled It means^ making progress by digging 



I TfifBlrrrWi FLuiiliiUsa 11Q8S], jrq]onby5chn«d« 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



103 • The Pint GiobaJ Rrpolutim 

wdh or building fanki ro colted ninwarer for jrngstiDn, jmprovtng the 
qudlLry of seeds and Livestock, pUnong etfcs. building Idtripcs. educating 
chlldrcDjnd cncourdgLngsdVLiigs.Locdl savings, mosdy made b^ women, arc 
i fundam^nul invesimcni lot \hc future thj[ fbouLd particularly be 
developed r Throughout i\\ this, we car never overestimjte the essencial, 
Irreplaceable role that women are plapng in developmem all over the world. 
NGOs and volunteer agencies have made i decisive and vlial conulbution, 
especially In dx poorer leglons oF dK woild. There is no doubt dut dieK 
acQons will sptead. Ux v/oul about die vitlagcs that have come hack to [jfe gee 
around verjr qukkly, reaching even ihe eikhi di&unt villages tn the desert, 

jungle or mounorti. And villagci^ who wae thDughito be Incti, btallsOc and 

resigned — when In factthey usually had no hope lefrand were too hungry to 
work — are beginning to believe dut It can work foi the m too and are fin Jlng 
the will to innpiove their own lot and build a better futiire for dicLr children, 
Ptlcniiy must dicrcfote be given in many places to small-scale pro)casH 
propctly Intcgnicd Inco a glo^bal mncgy 

In addltfoHn to avoid financial vrasK and the unwarned consequences of die 
large scale pfo)ects we nKndoned earlier . and 10 nuke the best of the tcssons 
Icaml from previous expeneiKC, it seems necessary lo reverse die process 
due has been engaged In solar and bOrt favouring small scale piojfcu needing 
far less inveitmenl ainl resuLuiig m progress that is bcnefKial lo dte ma^iiy of 
people. 

Al a Ome when finarKfal resources are becoming even scarcer . the current 
situation dem jnds th^i NGO& in the North, and ihf InifnutkHial Jgendes jnd 
^a rK:[al institution in particular, re vie'w the policies diey have applied so f^tT' 
Part of the investment planned Lor large-scale projects should be transferred 
tofinaiLcc&mall scale pio)ects. The advantage of the latter i&thjt they train die 
bed men and women and set up The stnjctures— village communities, 
farmers' aasixiations— lokunth i de^flopmeni based -on the people's own 
r>eeds and options, implemented widi their active Involvement and under 
their supervision. The rephabiJlty of the projects from village to village tt 
starling to have a multiplying effect on the progress of develc^mcnt of groups 
oE villager, then of regions. 

beyond i ceruin ^tage oE ihi& kmd of development, medium scale works 
like roads, nnarkets, small hospitals, and schools become indispensable. Thus 
villages and NGOs have no choice- even though It may seem difficult - but 
to putsue action on these matters in a concerted movement on government 
polldes^ Id the same way, home Indus^leSp small business firms or handicraft 
wterprlses can be set up and give access to new productions and therefore 
nei* modest incomes. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Tbt Thm Immediacta • 109 

Tlrr i9}t ii ^ovtjr^mnii. This global viiioo □( rura-l dpvclopmeni based on new 
perspecnves md pnorttics requires EitU lecogniuon by goveinnnetiQ ot the 
rdc of local InltiaOvcs and NCOi, ]n hct. Jf a govemmen[ dcdd«$ to 
JmpLcmem jEuraldeveJopmrni pel Lcy.thi&dss Limes Ehdi It bjsm^dee^fniial 
poll tkj] choices chat must m mm)' insuncfl Include Land reform , populaaon 
polLcy and drvelopmoit of small i^kk healrh Eafilitie;. However, the 
lecognlbon of ibe dTccdvenenof NCC^ by govcmznenD has often remilned 
tnhcr theoiedcal. 

Again and again ti has been observed bow ihc results of small s<ale projects 
are compTDfTtiscd by the application ofpr^ctlcei and even polkcmihjTjcciri 
conmdIcDon lo the type oE df velopmeni chcy stood foi, Puichuc pnces For 
farm producls do not iuEricientlyremuneriletberirmers For their labour dnd 
di&couiage Instead of -encour^e them to Increue produCDonr Simllaily. direct 
and Indirect taxes on the national level are bitterly Felt in rural areas, where 
income is generally very low. Covemment laxaiion widi Its resulDng financial 
butdcn ODuld well slow down at put a stop to all small -^ale ptoica cffoits. 
bowevet much external financial aid there Is. when govetnmenis have 
decided to support this approach to rural development, the^ must then 
modify ihdr political atxi ftnatxial options and axlopi a policy oFhtgher buying 
[HicesfoJ village piodiicc. as *cll as relieve them of scnne of the tax pressure. 

R. lira I development b«cd OP smill'S«lc projects also demands chgi 
governments implemenl nauonal planning policies Favouring rodd 
construction and the development of intermediate settlements between 
villager and bl^ rowns. The absence oE roads excludes a large number ol 
vlllige communiues from normal trading and makes them live In a 'closed 
circuit'. Souk oF them have built roads cr bridges themselves, but they are not 
equipped for such tasks, which should be planned on a national level and 
carried out on the systematic btsis of a policy. Similar problems arise in the 
TXti di prtfUJiy and secondjry school educjDon, haspitjlK. highrrlcvel 
training, and leisute activities for the ^oung, 

Moieover, corruption musibe lought at every level oF the admmistratKin, 
and ibis implies, imong other measures, the training of lower level civil 
servants in order to moDvate and Involve ihem inadevclopment policy that 
should be well understood ds a njciona] ptioficy. 

Weshallaigue later that a ma^ornced In die development oF the South is 
the creation of an Indigenous capacity in each country for research and 
development. However, scienitFic careers have remarkably litde prestige in 
many Southern countries. In such societies the more gifted Individuals ace 
recruited Into fields other than these urHJervalued sciennFlc careers. A 
number oFthcmaredoing research abroad, usually in Westem countries.. A 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



110 • Tbr Frnt Giobai Rrpoiutim 

maior considcratkm in any nadonal sdciKC policy has ra be the esrabbshmcnr 
otthebjiiccondiuorLs jndf^ciUdc&[oatt[acrihlS[CScrvo<T'oFQ]fii[backmdv 
region dnd reoln thosf already thcTf b^ more con^o-anon and bftter 



A last wocd should be said on the fllghi of capital wh]<:h in ^irK developliig 
rounirlcs represfnts such an amount of mone y that it lk almost «quivalerti to 
thdr total external dcbc. Such a pandoHicaL situation should cmalnli; be 
changed by gowmmmril decisions and legulatlons 

The growing awareness of all dme iacts amongst the population will 
cenalnly play an essential role in pushjng govemmenis io give more attention 
to them- as has already been the asc In some Afilcan- Asian and LaOn 
Arr>er]tan countries. 

jfit nk of iMtfnaUi%A\ insfilnl^iniT. ]n the past years, inietnadonal financial 
institutions such as the World Bank, the European Economic Community and 
Japanese oFFicial Qcvclopmcni Aid have become aware of the problenns of 
rural development. The reglcnal development banks in Latin Amcrjca. Atnca 
and Asja. as well as these in the Middle Easi, should increasingly emphasize 
this lype of operation. Theie Is a ne* trend, as- yet quite modest, of (he direct 
provision of flnanclil meins co smill scale pEo^ecis witboul going through the 
government. This increases the probablllly that the money will reach its 
destination without being diverted on the way. as was oFicn the case in die 
past. But there \i a cerrain structural Incompatiblhly belween large 
buECduCEatk jdmmi&traQons and ^mill NCOs. The mnovjiivc cnthmiatm oE 
the latter ai well as the daily urgency of dieir field work, leaves little time lo 
deal with the bureaucratic requirements and administrative details expected 
of them- 

To promote and accelerate this type oF rural development, wc think these 
Institutions should devote a greiter pd:t of theii budgei to loedl iniilitlve& dnd 
small scale protects. This would strengthen thdi e^idency and encourage the 
growih □! ^mall scale induioies They should also establish an advisory 
committee made up oF representatives oE ^uthern NCOs and organizations 
such as ihc Club of Rome, to extend their knowledge of the field, to ^ulde 
them in tiieir selection of cas« deserving of financial support, as well as to 
contnbute (o the evaluation of the results of such aid. 

1'bc most immediate responsibility of the iniematioiul irutitunons. 
however, has to do with the debt problem in deveiopmig eotintrics, k is fitting 
to emphasize ihe positive moves that have taken place in the last few yeaiSn 
which began with the agreement signed between the InternauoTkal Monetary 
Fund [IMF] and Mexico in lOSO.establlshinga link, for the first time, between 



Auteursrechteliik bescheMnd materiaal 



TheThralmmaiiMki • Ell 

ihtf level of giowih of ^ countiy ind ihc level of in dcbr pa)micna, The 
cvolurkm of thoughi w|[h rcgaid to the sdutkm of ihc debi problem [oday 
cin be otiKrvcd fi much in the deb[OE countrtei u In rhc Icmlei InnlTuaoris. 

In the debtor counirin. the debt cci^i; has begun to Induce a revision of 
developmentitr^Kegies jndiheim plemenuoon of policies aimed Ji reducing 
budgeory jmbalsnce;, ElghEing In^sncin. engafpng iii economtcand fmsTVcUl 
recovery programmes, jnd esiabhahlng codCroJ over economLc poltdcs. 
Lender Insilnjtktns, Ehe [MF In panlcuhi, now view (he dcnimd for re- 
Adjustment wlih a keener awareness of the sodji consequences of 
unnecessarily harsh terms. Ii has become clearer that the debt pioblem can 
only be salved in die Jong term jnd only If — JS is acknowledged In :hc pUn 
proposed b^ die US Sccteiary of Treasury, lames Baker — growth resurr>es, 
boch in die counirin of the tJotih and in the cho^ of the South. 

Very recently [here appears lo have been a reorientabon Ln the thinking of 
the leaders of die international financial ocganizauons. ForeumpJe, Enrique 
V. Iglnids', the president of the Inlet Atnetfun Development Birk, while 
di^cu^^ing the transfer of teal resources to developing countries, scata: 

Among ihr areas of activity targeted by die bnk, d few sund oui foi die 
high priority they have been isslgned, namely: the ptomoOon of economic 
investment In key sectoEs of the economy such is energy, transport, 
communications, agricultural and industrial devebpment: the alleviation 
of the social debt In the region leg., assistance to the low-income 
segments of the population, coopcratkin for urban jnd agricultural 
development, promotion of small producers, enhancing women's 
pardclpailon in development}; the support for the modernization of the 
private sector le g . loans and cquliy invntments bj* the imwAmerian 
Investment Corporation, and loans and technical cooperation from the 
Bank In the areas of trading systems modernization, expcn capacity 
development, financial sector modernization, cofinancing. and support to 
mECroenneprencurs); the promotion of human resources development, 
pjiticularly in the scientific and technological areas; and, finally, the 
prorrtotion of environmental management and conservation of natural 
resources . 

One Imporiani task for die Club of ELome Is to convlrKC policy-makers diat 
It IS possible for Korch and South to work together so that development no 
longer demands such a high price of die regjonal and gkjbal envirorunent. 



L Addrns on September ^lJ«0. to thfjoiniCnininltteedtlv Boards of CkiverruTi of the 
Bank jnd ihie Fund on chic Darukiufccaimourcn id developing courtEtn. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal 



112 « TheFmtGlobttlBrvUutum 

Developmeni planning can rely on ^Irfady available ^vanccd cncr^- 
cffioemand matenal^ efficentiechnoEogics.Ucan^couiigccffotO to build 
up indigenous capabilities for scientific and technological research In the 
developing counoln. tt must emphasize ihe use of local resources and 
renewable energies lo Ind to ^ deicentralized ^nd Italjnceii pattern of 
development. Ai flrsr %\^i. the finandal burden involved may seem coo 
onerous for dcuelopJng countries. El rieed not be. If aid-to-development 
pollcks can be designed to ensure that adequate me i^ nude of the 
technological advances achieved so fa:. Seen In a historical perspective, 
deveboping countiics now have a gteac advantage: they ue building up their 
caplul KDck iX a dmc when new icdinolo^cal opiikjns ^rc becoming 
available, Wc have Co ensure ihat these options; do nor remain t^K ptivilcgcd 
possessions of the North, but can be accessed by die Soudi on afforda-ble 
lerrrs^ Th^ would be possible if, for example, a part of aid to development 
funcTs were Co be used to give conipensanon [o the enterprises in the pr]tf^[e 
^ciQr for }h^ng ihcit icchnologi^dl know-how. 

MoreovcTH we have to ask whethei cunent conditions allow us to envisage 
successful International cooperation on the necessary sale. Two potential 
obsucles might bar the way. The first is political obsucles. TlelaKation of 
teniiuns between East and West has pointed to die emcigencc of a new 
tnternational climate and this process may conOnue, despite worrying signs of 
reactionary tendencies within the Soviet adrrrinistration. This might ?k)w 
down the demociauzation pjoccs^ or even Lake advantage of the prc^nL 
economic fiasco to reemcige as a pohdcal ftMce. The new climate raises 
expectations, about Ean^Wsl relations, but not necessarily about North-South 
relations. Indeed, confrontation between E^ And WesE in the past ofi^n led 
to competiUpon in offering assistance to developing countries for political or 
trade-related advantages. However, an attitude verging on Impatience has 
novi' become apparent among many cconomisu and policymakers in tfic 
industrialized world of dK North, They seem to feel dut while restructuring 
the foimet Eastern blocis a practical pTOpo&ition. development of the South 
remains an intractable problem. Furthermore, theCulf War has given rise to 
increasing tension between tJordiand South. Tbe growth of fundamental ism 
jn iic Isldmic woild threatens not only dK t^t^ve analysis of ccorrpmlc 
intetestn but aUo what has been a long iraditlcn in mucboftbe Atab woiW of 
tolerance for non-Muslim beliefs. 

The Club of Rome can make Its own contribution here. Measures Eo find a 
polifeable mechanism which will permit deveLopmem lo take pbce without 
unduly expanding tolal world resource use, and other measures to condLUon 
market force? to take mto account long^term, hitherto unquantihable 



Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



8. Governance and the Capacity to Govern 

The compICK ol piablcms rhar wc hjvc discnbcd Icad^ to che quc^iion i% lo 
how dK7 die lo be m jsicred through policies thii okc EuJI kcoqdi dF Ehf ir 
muctui impact. Arc the Q^dicioiijl palldal, insdtudonaJ ind ^JmlnlstnUvc 
systons capable of hcing such i situauon^ Knowing how to make ihe right 
decisions In f^llknowiedgeottbe facts and dien ImplemenQngthemintimels 

no ca&y mntcr; yci ii \i i fuAdimcnut cicmirnc d (he problem aOquc, The 

defl-clencle^ of governance are at the root of many of the mands of the 
problemaljque 3J]d hence improved goveimnce is an ea&enltal aspect of the 
fcsoluljquc- 

In this chapter, we shall examine the origins of some of ihe piobLeim of 
jjovf mance. tb new dlfnen^ic^u, and the ^qtidi:y of its pie^rrnt responses. 
We shall also make some iuggestiom tor changes which mlgh[ conujbute ta 
die tesoLutiquer 

WeuMlbeierm 'goveirunce to deixne die command medunismtjfj 
sodal system [and Us actions|,dut endeavours to provide ^(^cuElcy^piospetltf, 
coherence, order and continuity to the system. It necessarily embraces die 
Ideology of the system, which may (democrattc) or may not (authoritarian) 
deftne means for the e^ecdve consideration of pubbc wiU ind tht 
accounabdlty of tha^ m auihoiiiy. ii also mc!ud« the iiructurr of The 
government of the system. Us policies and procedures Somr mi^t even 
Df that govemarw Is the rrKans ro proi/ide a stable equi^ibnum between die 
vamus centres of power. Seen In a broad sense, (he concept oE govcmance 
should not be restricted Co the zutiona] and International systems but should 
be applied to regional, provincial ^nd local gouemmcnis as well as to odier 
social systems such as those of cducatloD and the mlLltaryn to private 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



Gffvmratut tpid the O^aaty to GffPtm ^ 115 

cntcrf^lscSn and even to the microcosm of the limily. Covcrnarjcc jttempe to 
apply arkart a ambiance of rJdonaliiyio The irranonal, sub|«t[vc, and often 
COn^idj^^iy tchivi^Lir gf palidcuTis, ccononkists and the ml of \is. 

I< is uDwiK to ovogoienllze on tbe concept of governance. diETereni 
countria hdve dlfkreni ippioachcs iS ^/ftii as differcriL problcms^ 
Reverlhelcs^. predominanlly Western idc^l hive itirtiulawrf WOrVimic 
growth and matcrla[ ptogtcssinabigepartof the wotUJarul have broLjt^ht 
witJi ihcm Western mucture^ and concepts, no* generally xcepfcd. 
although with !tai\y variations and diverse interpceuiions. The Idea of 
gDvecnance lb natacw. Id core coi^ponenis ^u b^tk a[ leait five thousand 

ycjK, 01 probably much longw i^n dial 

We have jbeady undetscoied the mjsmanagefnmi of the world. evldeiKe 
of which IS all around us — acevis of misery and poverty, die arms trade, 
cripphng indebtedness m die developing wocld. huge annual dcficLif in dK 
United SQtes with i national debt of some USS ) trlJUon. samp^nt speculatuHl, 
cortupdoii, and violence. Aie nve to (onciudc liin the world n impouibk Co 
govern? Are out governors incompetent or 111 choscii? These ate doubii 
which public opimon is ramog and cicizen:^ Jre discussing- much more 
IncMvcly than the poSmciins themselves. Wehjvetojsk ourselves three basic 
quesikms: 

(1) DowenKdiecndofthisccniuiyipropeiJy understand our woi Id, oi aic 
out coocepcs 3t»i approaches iu> longer suited bt the complex and 
dangerous sLiuaticn we fkce? 

(2) Whyjn splceoFgrowing concern over several decades and Jnnumciable 
internaijonal debates and many canitrutOvc proposals have accton and 
pracDaf results Iwtn w Itmjred? 

(J) What suggestions can now be made for step* to improve the cftecDvenea 
of the pcocea&cs which shixild convert wtdrspiead concern mio practical 
acOon? 

The dangers of ir»efTeetive governance are present acdiScrenc levels; at ihe 
level of the indlvidiaal and the family iwhich wc have discussed In 'The 
tiumjn Malaise'}, ii the levels oi the national jnd die JntcTEiaiiona I poTlrkal 

^fiF dimennons of the prvbUm offfOPcrtwrnt 

Shicc the eudof chc Second World War, the actJvmes of governments have 
Increased enormously and, a[ the same ume, many areas under their 
lUTL^iction ^mind highly s|^dli£c-j icchnj^^l undei^andlng. Wc must 
thetrefore stress how much the complexity of national and international 



Auleursrechteljjk beschermd materiaal 



116 • lUFmtGkbdBtvolutum 

svstfms has gfowD. As Andic I3a]zini puts it/thls sudden jiK in complfiUty 
hasihrown us out of a social syscfm ihit w&(accc5i]bJc (ologlcandihrunus 
Into- 1 stxJil otganiutiort doniin^tcd by cybernetic racQoni/ Jn a very 
cocnptexenvlronniciitwlthlnsQbilitiesindlznbaljiKcs. ^is [be situation ot 
humankind today, the feedback jy$tem& are so numetom and so intetiwincd 
thjtftJsdjRiciilt to dfiign them within a comprehensive modcLltlscvcnlcs! 
possible to grasp such systems chiough common sense and intuition, or even 
to draw up an approximate mentaJ Image of them. The solution of probFcms 
wlihUi this complex, system Is thercfoie difficuir, m^dc all the moic so 
because En many c3:jes public acceptance of KiEuttons \i unhkdy. 

What givcj rJK: la dils growth of complexity? Wr mention heic a ffw of 
the factors operating on both the nadonal and the Intemadonal leveb: 

\ ) the increased speed of technical, economic and demograpNc changes: 

2) the Incieasc in the number of accots in the systems to be governed, 
whHhfrahigdry.acountTy.thevastve^ofrheSouth.oThuminiryua 
wholes 

3J [be jncce^&c In the number of foveielgn stJts pldytng an aCDve fole Id 
any given IntettuQonal sj^siem; 

A] tht ejLtenE of Inrcrdependence between nattonal soclena ova a wide 
[ang? oi mittcr£ ^ixh u uansfci of knowledge, pedodlc or petmanent 
mlgralory llows. cultural influences and economic eitthange; 

5] the onning into Ctmlact of heleiogenous soceties, differing in iheir 
ailiures. values, political tiadlllom, and sundards of living: 

6) thecroslonofnatkonalsovcrelgnty. AccoIdlngUlMt.So«ijatm□ko^ 'In 
the process of interdependence, we have all become vulnerable. Our 
societies aie permeable to decLsioni taken elsewhere In the world. The 
dynamiC3 of inicrdepencSence might be better understood If we ihin^ of 
thegbbenoiln tetmsofamapofnadon^butasa meteoro-logtcal map, 
where weather systems swirl tndependendy of any nadona I boundaries 
and low and high fronQ create new climattc conditions fai ahead of 
them': 



L FomicE gcncEjl irunj^ijci of Thooim C5F, moubcr d dit Club of Rome. 

J. Afoimcrprcsidcntof [he LlniicJNjQoTiiGtiivcraiTyaTHlilorfnrrrfkr'mbf-rLiEihcChjbof 
RjJlnc. Ml. &dc(1|Ajiuj[o, rtriwdr^rii^d, mtoti? [hii ^urcmcnr in i pJpi^i fariicibuwd m 
[be Club ol Rocne irmua] ciinleif nee of \%^ held in ^norriLerj S[dm oc ihc u^ic af 
CovemabilKrofa World Id TraiuiUQLi 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal 



G&Kmana and iht CafHtaty to Gffpent * 1 17 

(7) ibccnormousvolumtof iofbrmad™, the Tpccd of communiatto^ 

ihc importance of the mrdia as amplifier, sdcnor, filler, and distorter of 
- v/hai ^a^i Ai [pi^raOiQo - deapiK dK iia ihai jo ihc South iczcsi to 
Information Is still vay bmlrcd; 

(8) dw emcTgOKC of i atw world ctchnlcal system based on 
microelecaonics; 

i9) the aR>carancc of problems dcmandlrg msna^emcnl on a global sole of 
mankind^^ comcnon heiit^e m Jieas such as climate, envlronmenl. the 
exploiuiiun oE Lhc oceans and ardilieauiat monuii^eniA; 

[10) ihe sJTnuIuneous consequences of technical dcvelopmcn: and die 
fngmeriaTlon of poljdcal power on die security of nattonal societies; 

(11) rhf diionma d twiMtn bur»u£rad(±&. The lUtur^ and diver&icy of the 
problems lo be solved and the sj'stenu (hcilth, welhie. etc.) k> be 
managed, encowape the powth of hrge bureaucradei, which arc 
amslderably more tcilnani to change; 

[17) In some national sodeila, changing individual amiudes have led to 
Increasing demands for services ftom the government. Citizens find It hard 
to believe dut governmeniis aie unabEe to find solutions which will not 
cause them hardship or lEiconvciUcncc, SimultaiKOusly , there k i decline 
In tespeci for audiority and a lessening trust in and support fot insticudoiu. 

AJ±ough in from nthiusiive, this lui suggests thai the cUcca of mosi of 
thc$e factors wlJl be felt wtth Increasing intensity during the neit twenty lo 
thirty ycars^ These new dinnenslons of governance place an entirely r^ew 
htstorical situation In. from of humanity. We must, therrfore, noc be surprised 
by the Jnadequacy of nuny of the solutions currently proposed for die 
conicmporary problems. 

ThtiHodequjiijefthcrtiptHttTaammljnvtitrms 

Ti Is necessary to £tr OS once nwreth^tth? existence of tragfcs1tiTatfons,sEtdiaj 
military conflici, threats to peace, vioiation of human tights, envjronmenol 
ddmdgc, md (he Intolerable pcrslsioKx of wldoprcad poverty and hunger In 
the world, demonstrate the malfunctioning of the woild system 
DeTTrographic, economic, politick and en virtm mental tiends of global 
dimensions, have combined in teccnl years to create a qualiutivcly distinct 
category of pucucal piobiems diat were vlrlually unknown Co Oadltlonal 
dipbmacy. They are beyond the reach of indlvldiul national governments, 
cannot be ftrted into accepted theories of competitive interstate behaviour and 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



Govtntanct and nbr Q^adty to Gopem m 119 

overlap oF the confuting ma&j of ^pfdallTtd tiniis. As wj^ 1rw4tabl?, 
many oi^thc agcncln gridualJy began lo f ultivjic chcjr vested ni[ete3t5. 
Staff was rectuJud Jeis on quality, than o>n anurlng dirou^ quotas an 
cquiabk dlscrlbuclon of poses lo each member councry. M die same 
dme the effectlvcncs! of some of die main agenaci wjs diminished by 
bure^uft^rtz^r^i^i^ and pollfldzadon^ 

Anxk on the complexity of the coirtempoi^ry problems emails i double 
risk -thai of excluding publitopinjon and dcacdtepicsctiQUvca from the 
knowledge necessary for the utKJcT&tandtng of a sliuatkm. as well asth^tot 
strengtbenlEig the Influence of specL^lists jnd experts whose arcdnc 
knowledge is difRcuk for the decision makers to jpprajse and check. 

Tht complCRlty of die problems has been compoondcti by dienumbet 
and complejiKy of the actors: political parties, uaiie unions, coipoiatk^ns, 
non governmental otganlTadons, picuiue gcoupa of all kinds including 
Infcffmal groups which OMy be short lived but nevertheless Intense and 
efftctive in their nwbtlttaOon on a parflcuJar ftjue. That virtous groups 
contribute to governance through the^ proposals aixJ protc^. Governance is 
no longer the monopoly of governments and fncci govcmmentaJ bodies, and 
Its effectiveness will depend on the capacity of leaders to selecttvelytnclirde in 
their dedslonmaktng process- these new actors, who are In htx their partrters 
in g^jvrmancf . 

The stmctuTTj. pdum imdpnti^dum tf^erermnaus 

Itiacisitig ob&olescence H chus i r)iaJor ch^i^ct^Hsdc of govcni^n-^^ today. 

Its snudures are basic, designed moEe than 3 centuiy ago to meet the needs of 
much Ampler societies th^n the present ones. Some Important Innovations 
have certainly taken place in the meanUme. such as the emergence of 
universal su^ge, the evolution of the welbre ^te, and a recognlUon of 
human tlgha. but by and larg« dungr hjs brm InaemenDl oi by wjy oi m 
improvement of the already existing stiuctuzeSr As the range of governmental 
Interventton has increased, ir has been accompanied by high costs, swollen 
bureaucracies and mefflcency. Here we shall n^enGon only a few of the areas 
where major Innovations in structure and attitudes are most urgently 
raiuirrd. 

One such area is ihe need for benf r mecthanisms for the integration of 
sectoral policies in order to deal with the Interaction of [he problematlque- [n 
general, government structures ccmslst csseniially of a scries of vertical 
ministries for sectors such as agriculture, indusity, eduo-tlon. health, defence 
and foreign affairs, together with the central finazKJal and economic 
mechanisms. Th^ system h^s hidicrta worked moderately well, but today 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



Gtmnuota mtd the Orpndty 10 Gmvm * 121 

However, cjtpcrtcticc showed (hat the barriers between bccqohs of a 
department could be is ImE^nctrable as ihosc between the fonocr separate 

mint soles. 

A second atea of dlfbculty concerns theircRifllct between Eang-lerm and 
short 'term Issues ^ This Is a maior endemic problem The rurmal 
pultamentary cycle oi four or Rve years between dc^bOrti \i i featuie ot 
democratic govenunce. The power game of party pollOcs ensures that both 
administrations and opposition partes have to respond quickly to Issues which 
arc of Immediate concern to the electorate, iX they wish to retain OE to win 
power at ihe ne:st election. Thus govemmenti, like Individuals, tend to 
ignore problems thjion be put o^ till tomoirow - it^ this C3sc until 3ftcr the 
ncm election. This has probably mattered lliclclnthc past, bui In periods of 
rapid change such as the present, wh^t formerly appeared as long-term tends 
to race into the period just five to ten years ahcid i,e Into the period of the 
next administration , As a consequence, die new government inherits a legacy 
of ncglea; unackled problems come home Eo nDOSt, become compounded 
and there Is a descent Into crisis governinenip a staggering from one 
emergency to the next - which range from dealing wlih monetary and social 
problems, baFance o( payments crises, unemployment. Inflation, and so on. 
Each crisis is usually lesolvcd by pasting pafier over die ciacks; remedial 
mcasuin seldom :CKh the iMB of the difficulty Fundamental causes of 
difficulties, being longterm m iheir operaDOin, are too easily ignored Oi go 
unidennfied In favour of cosmetic measures of ephemeral cffccDvenesS- 

A further cribcal arrt Is that of thc apprOpHaw levels of decision making. 
The cuttent situation Is somewhat a parados. The complexity and highly 
technical mture of problems encourages the cenirallzauon of ddmlnLstiaiion 

for their analysis and soiudon, since this would be difficult for regjonai 
and provincial bodies to organize. Also the global coverage of so many 
problems which demand ancnnon on the world scale, xvoald seem to lequire 
centralized national decisions. At the same time there is an Increasing clamour 
for decentralization, regloraal autor^omy and greater participation of die 
lr>dividual citizen in decisions which affect him closely. This tendency Is being 
bTTOngly reinforced at present by the demands for Independence oi autonomy 
of innumerable eduiic gioup^, a^ illusttdtcd by the ^ituAiion in Yugoslavia and 
the Incredible secession Lsi tendencies in the Sbviet Union. 

These t«va approaches are Indeed two sides of the same coin, perhaps 
growing pains In the transition of the nauon slate towards some new kind of 
global system. In the medium term, the main Issue is how ro eSh^bllsh^ In a 
manner aiming at harmonious governance, a system in which there will be 
several layers of decision -making. In which the basic principle will be to 



Auleursrechteljjk beschermd materiaal 



122 • TheFim Glsbai Rtvoluri&n 

msurc that debate taka place and dedskms are niad« at the closet possible 
Levels to chose who will cnpjoi suffer the resdo. Foi ibc global problems we 
needagbbalbttimaiixlHatltwodiCTCXticnKplocalrtiatrcrsciallforatowTior 
communliy meeting tathcf than edIcB cmanacing from a remote and 
seemingly uncarjng central government. 

Finally, a few words jbout the buieauttity. In many countries thrte Is 
general publk alClOsm of the sIk and power of the bureaucracy whith seems 
DO enjoy Invendng peoy restiktion^ to Freedom and unnecesullycomplLaOng 
the life of dtjzeiu, [[Isfekioberemcxe, unic^pon^lwe jnd unfeeling, made 
up of people wUh tenured )obs who revel In cxen:ising ihdr petty powers. No 
nutter hmv intelligent and obicctivc the CiviT Sfr\tc:c may be— jndln nuny 
couniTLes thisisur^oniiroverslai— ttlsa Eatt chat iB memben are selected to 
provide itabkUty and conrinuiry a& political administrations come atid go. 
Hence they are seen tosai>d for the status quo, to be ihe apoiheo&ls of Inerda 
artd resistance to change, especially radical change, Ln some lnsianre$ it Ls felt 
that the facelcSS Clv|l Service 15 out of the OTnttol of ats pollOcal masters and 
thus not accountable to the people. It Is certainly very difbcult f-oi a minister to 
master all the deiajis of his departmental activities, of which he has probably 
lud no prior eyperlenu. u^hlle hlK offlf I j]&. very efficient arul well Infonned, 
'know all the answers'. 

There is undoubtedly some truth In 5uch crltldSTn, but sometimes there 
may be a ^eaE deal of benefit for an inexperienced minister In the mtormed 
cautious advice of the official The considetable extension of govemmenr 
rfsponsihi]itylnrecmtyear3,insormnyup«tsoflifch^Lnevjtablyledtoin 
increase m the size of the bureaucracy, and in some instances such as defence, 
to the perpetuation of pow« and unsuitable policies. Internal policies may 
thus at times be responsible for cieating dangerous and partly concealed 
vested Intetests. 

SOME IMFOHTANT ISSUES 

Hjvingoudincd some general thou^ts on governance, we feel it necessary to 
discuss some aspects in mcire detail. 

RtsKtancc So cfrar^ 

Governments seldom generate Innovation. Tbcy reaCT to piessuie for change 
which arises from popubr demands, either through the democratic process of 
f lenions or jn the iiEterinath of a surces&ful revoludon. flowever, in mcttng 
to demands for new approacheSn die natural conservatism of admlnlstratkons 
{ and not nvrely Its civil service component) Is often able to pat the brakes t>n 
change. Their approaches are essentially linear and aie based on cither rigid 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



124 • The Frrsr GtobnU B^poUmm 

Friction' In nn»njgfin?n[ labour r^ldiions was jimtifjed in i)w context of dir 
conOnuoustmpiovemenlof ihctonditkmof die wDikeis, while in politics rt 
has done 3 good deal 10 prevent exceukve complacency and stagnaDon. 
However, It haB also gone too far sometime, for example when party 
IntercHshavcbcenplaccdabavcthenadonilgoodr While Ln no way aigulng 
sgalnsi party polidrs as such. ihcK 3xe strong reasons for aTOmpDng, In both 
pollUca] and Induiula] relaocns, to Inculcate a change of ^tOtude In (he 
djTecdon of consensus building In Face ofihe gravity Dfthedecisk}ns thai will 

have to be Caken in the near Future, artkhclally stimuiaied paity rivalries, 
modvated bf atrempts to win |)opular votes atihe nextelection a nd oFten IKK 
cvm based on tcdl jdcologlal dlffeicnccs, could le«j 10 di&i^i. That 15 an 
overwhelming need to establish a consensus between political panies 
claiming to be custodians oF [he national good, if we are (o weather the m^n;/ 
storms ahead. To ihks end It would be useful to bring togcdier rcprcsenCaUvcs 
of difFerent parties In anon political brum such as might be ptovtded by die 
Club oF FLomr and slitiildt budles, for ihe dL^u^sion oF spcdflc IssuG. 

GevrKttvnr ntui thefbna of the nvrkfl 

[n East Europe, abandonment of state-planned economies in tvour cf 
democtacy and Free' market economies has Inevlobly Indicated the need For 
economic eERoency based on compcdOon and inccnifveH i-i- to accept and 
operate ibc Forces of [he market This ha; led to widespread euphoria tn these 
countries which Fiave assumed thai: th I & i& the p^nacci for thdr economy ills- 
While we fully agrw thatthrse raunmcs nnd toaperiie ihelr economies on 
the basis of the market forces, we have ibeady warned oF the danger oF 
rel/Ing exclusively on dicse forces. [[ Is dius necessary 10 discuss brleFly die 
reiadoosFitp between governments and the markets. 

The market Is 111 adapted tQ deal widi long term e^cts, imergenerarlonai 
responsibilities and common propcny resources. It responds essentially to 
short term signals and dius Its indications can be gravely misleading if app]]ed 
to long teim needs The system of the market economy js based on 
competition and is motivated by self-interest and ultimately by greed. In the 
absence of all cestralnts, the operation of tbe market Forces could lead to 
citplolt^tion , ncglen oF soddl needs, cnvltonmcnui de^uucdoni and the 
unchecked consumption of resources essentJal For the Future. However, 
society demands and indusay and commerce accept that there has to be an 
agreed system of ethics, within which the market 1^ operated; the system is 
thus self' regulating Co some extent. 

The maikei system dius certainly hds flaws, NcvcrthcLesiH competition and 
iPceiillveareundoubtedlyefFectlvein the current allocation olicsourceSn in 



Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal 



GiTPfmana and the Capadtyto Gopem • L2S 

dcvcbptng new icchnologlo, and In the generation of die mjtCTial prospcjlty 
which ihr knduslrlallzed countrls enpy today. 

Even those govetnmcnu that arc mon devoted to Lti€ rancepi^ Qi piinte 

□iiuprlse. reco^tzf dv ne«J to dtElne dv boundarln wldiln which the 
marker an function. In the genenl pubbc inierai. govemmcnn have to 
[novide a firm frafnework of regulations fo-r die private sccio: 2nd to 
effectively establish mechanjEni? for the eocte-cuofi of abuses. At the ame 
time gt^vejnmenial policies are necessary for the establishment of an 
economic climate conducive to the effLdeni functioning of die market within 
the country and for en»urlE^ diat its products ate competitive In [be 
mterruilonal mar)c«. Govemmenc strategics should also provid* incenOves 
for long'ierm developmcntn for example fiscal and o<hct incentives, and 
should encouiage Indu^lry to- Invest In sdentifk lesearch and tedlnologtcal 
devckipmeni aimed ac long t£im susuinabLltty, japan has been particubtly 
succes^l in developing a system combining business initiative and 
govcmmeni Inccndue. Clcftc collabotauon between the public and the 
private sectors has been established as a basis for long term EechnologicaE 
development, particularly thrixigh publicly financed research programmes, 
wtth the wide paiticipatlon of private enierptise. 

Iilspaititulaily Important at ihe moment, that those cnuniries which are 
now mavtng vjgoroiuly from ccninlly planned lo iTurKci oticnird 
economies, should c-rcognlze the limitabons as well as the benefit of d^ 
market economy, 

HHHutmry in PoUtta 

There Is 3 need to Jntioduce a new strain of humanity Inro politics. Rectnt 
years have seen a marked loss of confidence In political patties and 
personalities, contempt tor bureaucracy, voter abstention, and a general 
jljouiioti fiom the mibli^hmrnt and soctfty. This rray br due pjnEy 10 
overccntiallzacion, which depersonalizes the system, and pardy to 
burcauciailc oppression. It li a sympTom of deep malaise. Leaders and 
bureaucrats seem to tiaue forgotten that pditics I as economics) Isconcerrted 
with people and is meant to Ktve peijple. Until humanity and compassion 
permeate polltia and politicians go beyond metely kissing babies during 
election campaigns, allenabon will pecstst. 

Tht Inttmatatmal iJxirKmnm 

We have already touched upon ^cvcial dlfficulnes of tntemjtlL^nal 
gov«mancc,jl which level nuny of cbendtioiul problems tend to dtcumjbte 
and become compounded . The trend lowaitis globaLity and the rfcogniUon 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



Ginvmance and the Capaa^ ttf Qnvtn • 127 

ccrQin problf ni art js m npcnsltating a combined apprtncll from several oF 
rf>c spccjalizcd bcdjcs. Programmes could ^n be wri up in which the 
^?n^^ ^?uLd u^c pirt by coDQibyQng b^th finance ind ^Kpcr^s^, w|d) 
some supporLfroTH [be centre where ippiofviHe , Such i scheme would man 
greater influence of dw UN cenliem the woik of die specialist bodies, bul this 
mtght noE be- a bad thing if it could be done i^itb mlEkimum bureiucmk 
Intcideience and if the piogiaTJimcs were gcnutneJy Jutonomoua, 

New j^^iToaches nt: also needed In the working of some of ihc individual 
sgcndes. [nlcrgovcmmcntalcweanizatLons.juH js governmental agencies on 
the njdonal scale, are not the Ideal locacions for conducting research on the. 
Thev» an sflmuljie rrwarch, foimubte problems, jnd piovide for useful 
imcmationai discussions, but the lack of sufficient Eunds prevents ihcm from 
undertaking rescuch in depth. Iheu work is esicntjiliy caCalyQc, 

The vast number of topics ^vhkh an organization luch i$ iJaacxf has Co 
examine makes II impossible ID have a competent staFf, cirpeit In all the 
details of the subjccis awcrcd. FuiiheTmore, Jicas of pjratubi concern 
necessarily changen so chai many niittCf 5 that are In focus are ody lempoiatlly 
on The agenda, wtth ibc new points of attack requiring quite a different set of 
skills r Tbli problem Is dealt with by the use of consultant In most agencies, 
but jl seems more efficient to adopt a policy of delegating responsibrllty for 
pdrtiojEar studies to the mo^ competent iniUcu^n in the woe id for cKh 
subject undertaken 

ScJecdon of competent Individuals should be cssenOally on tfie basis of 
quality and there should be no question ofapplying the principle of the 'Tuste 
retour'. With such a s-ystem, the headquarters will have a staff consisting of 
the best tialiKd individuals with moat wide ranging imprests, and contaos 
could be kept quite small. 

Finally wc must mention the question of leaderahlpn with especial 
reference to the high qualitiei looked ftw in the person who js ihe Spadary- 
CeneraL This subjeahas been usefully discussed inarecentreportoftheDag 
Hammatsktold Foundation, The UN Chatter described d>e holder of the post 
of Secrelary-Ceneral as essentially the chief administrative officer erf the 
organization, but it soon became obvious that important political mediatitn 
and kadtrshlp functions were Incvlubk, In the icformcd dEid accvc UniEcd 
Nations ofthefmurc, the Image of the Secretary-General IsvUall]/ important. 
For millloELs of people throughout the world fie personalizes whx wt>uJd 
otherwise be seen as yet another vast bureauaatic machine. This individual is 
required to possess almost superhuman qualities. He or she Ithete has not yet 
been a feminine caixlidate} must bebcave and at the same time cautious^ as 
well as highly lntel]lg.ent, diplamaric and fnnovatJven have an outstanding 



Auteursrechteliik beschermd inateriaal 



Missing page 



Gozvmarur and thf Capacity 10 Gffptm * 129 

in i way whkh eiKoungp s thfm id idmdfy with it: 
— chc capacity to relegate snaicgy tad tacQcs Eo thdr proper place as the 

means ind not as eitds; 
— willingness to ser up jyscemw thiough which d>cy can listen In (o the nc<ds 

oi ih? citizens, their feats, demands, and suggesQoEis, 

These cheri arc soTfKof the dcfidersD.WhaE About ih«pK&emi«alldej^ At 

present, even In those counoles where coirapdon kn govcmmenc Ji not 
rampani, the rewards of leadership, which In theory arc those of serving 
focicty and che fsliifactton of doing a good )ob, uc In pracDce all loo often 
cnfoyrnent of power. Hence, those who presencthemselves for election, rend 
to be indlvldiuls with morr thjn ihr average vjnlty jihJ urge For power over 
others. These arc hardly the crtterta for the selection of the widest people to 
guide the world through the dl^culnes of the revolution. As things are now, 
many people of high quality who have the potential to become nattonaS or 
world leaders avoid entering the political aren^ wi^ all it^ vulgarity and 
hackbiting and the paucity of its rewards to thoic lor whom power m not the 
primaty consLdeiaQcai, 

Much attention Is [herefore required in the selecuon of our leaders. At 
present, this Isdoneby asuivivjlof^the^flllest process which tends to select 
persons who are overtly self -seeking and at limes even witling to sacrifice the 
common good for dic^t pcrKnHl or party ambinom, Th? quillilc! ^rhlch ate 
essential for &x jnalnmcni of high office are thus fiequenily the very 
attributes which make the Individual unfit for It. Chailsma is an extremely 
important asset for a leader, but it is not the only requirement and is very 
often associated with other less desirable qualities, let, thanks to televislonn 
charisma Is probably che most Important ingredient in winning elecdotu. It is 
difficult to sec how this can be chang:cd; it will certainly not happen from 
within the lyatem, and there ks therefoie a need for wise individuals without 
poUilQl jmbitlon to point out diese prot^emi to the public^ 

Political decisions are seldorrj based on rational thinking. They are normally 
based. In each Individual case, on a complex mixture of intuition, experience, 
personal and often unconscious moDvittons, and (jjiutiainls of political 
dogma and expediency. This is unlikely to change, but the process can be 

improved; better and more chotoughly atulyscd information can be made 

avaiUblcmraivaflons can be more consciously recognized and thus modified, 
and expediency can be replaced if the system permits longtcrm 
considerations. 

In the changing circurnstanccs wc have mentioned diioughoutn l< ts 

csscnWlthacfotward looklnggovcmmentsatalllcvclsdcvciopsomc 'tent 

of policy entrepreneurship, and not nvrely maintain stability and harmony 



Auleursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal 



130 • Tht First Ghhtd EiPoiHtum 

jmld^htwh III oF confusing Ctfcno. It is necessaryihattheshipoEsaif should 
nor only be kcpCdfloalrbulthdl II should be sle^rfd, surely indddibcTdlely, 
tow^ a deslied (kaUniuon, Thiu io a deprr, Fuiurr govonmencs mmt 
leatn u> become social aichltects. Far chi^ parpose. 3 much deepci and 
continuing disc uuion of Issun Is requjjed whhin d>c frameixnxk of njtichn^l 
and world irend? The ^uff EttnfUon b^omcs even moF<; importani and (he 
whoFc in and icitnct ot policy advice comei ^U> qucraon. Policy advisers 
should not all be olfKLals, but should mclude individuals fiom ziuny 
dlKipiincs ind wJtKouT polnkil parly affilijiions The s(ib)cci of policy 
jnalysc^isof-enEor disc us^jon and much ihoughimusf be given >£ 10 how this 
d&pcct of the iuS Funcoon on be kiUlizcd. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal 



9. Agents of the Resolutiquc 



AdjustrntDt (o dungt is iht hind^mrnQl cIuIIce^c that uivlctllc^ all tht 
constituent ^li^maiis of &ie pioblcm^ciquc analysed in ihc first put of this 
book, i challenge jddtcsicd to ai^ ibc people d out planet, whatever thdr 
culture, training Tiadltfans, religion ot philosophical ouibok. The prirrury 
agents of the rc&oiLiEiquc aierhmc^ eIiji ^iJIdlbw Jjidividuali jndsodcQoio 
lum bow to jdapt lo ibt dunge^ thai are consQntly modifying tbe fi£e of the 
planet. 

Any ehangC. for the better or fpr worse, involves Icamir^, self 
CEamlninon, and one's relationship Co others and Co the oivlronmeDlr Inner 
questioning demands effofi and will Incvtiably be difflculi. Having been 

btoughi up to tiki i fitm amd om their eetticude&— valuej, profe&jlon. Faith. 

and so on- hum^n bfing^ are now iaclng not one change, but an 
uninterMipledchainoEchjnges thj[ affect the very otlentabon of [betrbves. 
To make things moic difficult, changi^E arc succeeding one anothei with 
unprecedented speed. The challenge is therefore not to adapt once and for all 
to 1 new Kituadon, but to get mm a perrruiu^nc stat« of ada^tanon in order to 
be able to iiCc iinccitalnty, die new d^menskins of con^plexliy and insldtous 
or brutal changes, and avail of potential oppatiunliies a^cting our world as a 
whole and each human bdng In his or ha Immediate et^rotunent 

A mutant situation such js this does not mean ihal the human bemg should 
passively allow himself to be iltcred by dungn or suffer dKm without t 
reacdon. Neither does It imply that he must live under peimancnt stiess 
i>ecause of not knowing how to underrand or ^dapt to the unprecedented 
phenonKna. What instruments on he use lo undectt^nd the changes and 
safeguard his frecdomi How can he become, not an i^oldted spectator 



Auteursrechtelijk bescheMnd materiaal 



132 • The ¥mt Ghbd RtvitlMtitm 

wallowing in hi^ own pnsiinl&m, but in ictor, organizoi and capable ol 
coniributlng ihroogh his spiric ot InnovaOon and his wlll^powcr (o ihc 
building oF ihc kind of »cle[y h? deeply dsires. 

rhcindividualhds three agenu of the re&oluikqucai his dlspo&alro help him 
through [his TransitionaJ period. There 1^ nodding \tiy new about d^im. but 
the tesolutique apptOich gives ihcm the prOpe: dirtiCnsians. They Ait ihe 
learning challenge of education, [he conltlbuclon of tclence and the new 
technologies, and the role of ma^ media. 

In alE the piccedlng chapECrs. wc hi>c used dinereni terms xa refer to the 
ame imperative: to leatn- to undersiartd. to communicate- to infoim, to 
jdjpc, Lo minage. Thf^ words hjvc rung Inslsccndy throughout bccausr, in 
Eact, thcproblemotcducationconsandy appears as a leitmotif— learning tn 
and from life and nor |usf what Is Taught in scbooL undcE^i^nding the 
changeable world m which we live, ad|usling to new technologies, engaging 
In Inteidksclpllnary communlcatJon of the global dimension tnio whkch we 
have been projected, acUng wJih a scn&c oticsponsJbllliy . £ducadDn U all this, 
even if the term may seem worn out from overuse. Indeed, the educatioiial 
sys^ms of [i»st countries are undergoing a crisis and seldom satisfy emsting 
needs. Wc now have to define cthci ob|ectlvcs and other prbiides for 
educauon, as we aie Increasingly aware that the educational syirems, the 
schcxjls, the universities are only partly ensuring what we call education, and 
that the family, the professional framework and many other sodaC cells aie, on 
various levels, playitkg the most important roles in educauon. The crises in 
cducitjon m3kci it anesscmialcleineniof the world prablemjcique. but iti& 
increasingly appeaiJngalso u a privileged agent tA die resoluUque. This Is why 
II requires prime arncuiauon in the probiemalique^resoiutlque pair. 

The dtaUer^ afkarmi^ 

First of allp wc must repeat that m our view the term 'cduuLion' goes fat 
beyond chac imparted by the existing school systems. We see the most 
important task of educauon B iunun^ (vrv U lam' Jt may be a trulstn to say thai 
education is the key to improving the quality of human resources. Bui 
education must be understood as conslstli^ of a series of processes that not 
only shape vocational qualifications, but also enable the individual to actualize 
hli oi hei potential by absorbing and nnasiering the cultural factcns necessary 
for intelligent participation in society, for the acceptance of responsiblllly. and 
foi the mainierance -of Que hunun djgnJiy, 

Unfortunardy, knowledge and social relations have reached such a slate of 



L. ^cNaUnMiLrdnflii|,icpatlta the Club DdtQinc. ^Podin. Elirundiii. Miltta. JV7g}. 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal 



coinplnlty thai ih? educational system has bfcorriF a nattiial pify \o [hrer 
affljtuons - plethora of knowledge, anathronismE, and unsunabilfty^ 

This jflffwra if bvirif% applies Co aU age IcveU ih-c sh«r sale of the 
jccumulatiofi of knowledge jn all fields means ihai *c tx) haigcc know how 
to 5el«i whjt should be ajnsmiEwd to children and ^nidenis. To Ott an 
example, the quaiDty of icieniilic and lechnltra! publlf JTlons in 15S6 alone 
equalled ind perhaps surpassed that of all scB^alji^ jnd opots Erom the 
ren>ote*r pail up to World War [[.tfcw Is such a fiood of Information to be 
sotted out' How IS 11 to be traiumlited' How can we select what Is to be 
trarrtm[itcd^ 

Ajio^Fuimm occur because this flond of Informstton Is constantJv bring 
renewedi Ideas are modified as new knowledge 45 added dn and <iualifi« die 
old TcL practically txwhete ate pdmaryand secondary teachers tetialncd. 
They teach what they were taughi twenty years before in quite a different 
cnvlionmcni. Even with rcLrajning - which would be Emtnense progress in 
ii^eLf - they would eDII be behind dnKs stnce it b not po^iibLc to pass on 
knowledge undl khas matuted az^ been fuUy ab^rrbed by the br aln, and this 
process takes drnCr 

UnsHJfflftfjfLi Is what canfuscd children and vcung people feel characterize! 
the conventional educatTon they receive, since ildoesnotprc^rly relate to 
the world they have lo face. Television and strip cartoons, novels and 
science-fiction films, the univerEe of conaete, glass and a lu minium, all seem a 
very far cry from whji i: uught di sdiool. All too often, uocjuonil Hiining 
does not prepare them for the crue nee<kof the labour znarkci and sotncdnies 
even trains them for johs that no longer ems:. This situation ts difficult to 
remedy since the effects of structural and cuiriculuni retorm -with all their 
unwanted side effeCD - are fell only In the bng term, after at least ten or 

fifteen ycits. Moicovct, the actual length of that long term cannot be 
predicted. 



U&leiip kx^p uni]«r$lJrdpfQr|husl|l^aiitJrrii Danoibeldle, donoiw^lk 
aimlessly, do rK>r wander without a d»tinatloii. How sfiould you live? 
How sl-icuJd you go on fer a sliort time? Thev iJy " 's v*ry difTioill to live 
on lite earth, a pNce of [erriflc stajigle, my lltllf UdVj ir>y Unle bJrd, my 
irctle oTtt. 

amxImfroETi Hc/^^Lwc/jcd^l 



Jf educaOon has been dadltionally considered li a function of teaching. 



L A 1^ ircnturr pcc-Cokinibun qiwADDn cdlmol b^ Bcnudlm dc Satugun. 



Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal 



today and even more in the future, education should m«ntJicjifniiflnfFt(fiTft(fl 
tfkanin^ by cveiy human being in hkIcij, LcimJn^ how to idipt to change 
hjs become one of the new primary objccavcs of cducaOon. 

From chclE vcij infancy, human beings begin to learn by ictlng, 
pjrtlclpjdng 3nd cxpcilmcndngH and not mctdy looking on pj&^ively. Even 
tn early childhood, a human being Is learning lo be i proagonl&t rather thm i 
speciaiot. It Is through this active relationship with his human, naiutal and 
physkat envltorunent, and solely in this tdadonsbkp, that a person s ^nseoF 
independence, petson^lity and aeativjty will reach a high level of 
drvfLopmcnc. Ic^uld br icmembcred, though, thitcoaccposldvdydon 
not imply the non-observance of all rules or the reiecnon of restrictions. 

The education of every human "being u any age must embrace the multiple 
functions dut mark the learning process and guide ittowards the Immediate 
future, with die following ob}cctives: 

— acquJTtng knowledge; 

— siruciunng mtelllgencc and developing die alQcal faculties; 

—developing self- knowledge and awareness of one's gifts and limitab'ons: 

^learning to overcome undesirable impulses and destructive behaviour; 

— pennanendy activating eKh person's creadve and Imaginative faculties; 

—learning to pay a responsible role In sociciy; 

—learning to communicaie with others; 

— helping po3p3f to pr^pait for ind jdipt to chuige; 

—enabling each person lo acquire aglofjal view of the world; 

— training people lo become capable of solving problems. 

In the world of today, these last four points constitute the onl^ way to 
pEepare future adults to face die world of tomorrow, but they are snil 
practically Ignored In the classic educational proces^s. All kinds of more or 
less cofivinang reasons are produced to eitplain this gap — from the 
overloaded cuirJcula to die inadequate training o( the teachers In quasi- 
explored fields. Some countries, such as France, have introduced a 
compulsory subjecr which they call Civtc Education in the school curncular 
It ^ems obvious that 'Woild Education', as a subteci, or belter yei 
'IntToducnon to the Great World Problems and the Problcmatique' should 
henceforth be i compulsory subject in the ctlucation of children and 
adolescents. 

The role of the teacher to whom die future of the child is entrusted is one of 

the most noble roles of society and requires dedicanon Tel in many places the 
leacfier Is under valued, underpaid and given a relatively low status in society. 



Auteursrechtelijk beschertnd materiaal 



136 • The Firrr Giobal Rji^luTum 

jdjustmcm to cfungc 3ad the managcmcncof Instablllcy so ;mo be crc^dve J 
For ibeli spiritual and imclleclual balance- for thdr ability to overcome 
90-calkd^€^^fyh|[<k^ti?nSrltie7 need new arms which ihey can actually find 
wjihin themselves, thou^ they ate not awate of them and have never 
practiced ustng them- 1 hey weH have CD resoii lo combinations that have be^ 
scorned tor toolong. 'Thehuinanb(lngisllhinkingtMd,' WtOUP^iCal/Bul 
that whkh Is cerebral and imxUeoual In a humtn being cannot approach as 
myslcrtous a truth f^ re^kv unless ii tesorts to searching the appatendy 
inatkonal, the intuitive, and the emotional elements, which ate. to a great 
ejttent, the foundation of human telaclonshlp$- 

The lole of eduntton k thus eurn mor? viol than wc havf imaginfd. Bui ii 
will take miich research and wotk to ccthlnk the concept of education and 
ena"ble It to acknowktlge the dimensions of the needs In the coming times 
such diat the educatois of today and tomorrow wlllbclna bcttci position to 
discover the Immens^y and the nobility of their task: Do lead the way to an 
cvoluiion of ihc mind dnd behaviour ^d thus give birth io the new 
dvilization. 

The Uhfiihutwti oficuTfce ami technolftffy 

In chc Industdaljzed countries of du Noith, society has been sluped by 
[echnology, iheit way of life has adapted icself Co make full use of it, and 
prosperity has been butit on 1l. Technology Imported from the Industclall^ed 
wof Id Is also being used Ir the urbanized areas c>f the South. At the same time, 
many of the problems of concemporary sodety have b«n aused direcdy or 
Indirectly by technology or, mtne often, by Its misuse. It is to be evpecied, 
therefore, that technology wich lis seminal partner science will be an c&^eLinal 
dement of cbc tAolutiquc, 

Science and lechtxilogy are too often lesumcd to be more or less two 
aspects of die sanK ching— 'research and development gives rise to sdcnce 
and technology.' In reality the system of sdence and that of technology are 
v«y different. That of science fcsopen and lis produc: is freely disseminated 
throughout the world: thai of technology is directed bv economic 
motivaucKU and ilA products are (cabusly guarded com meicial pioperLy- 

ThciolcofKlcncclatouncovcikno'rvledgc. lLexploicstbcun}uwwnat>d 
provides new tiata. Data is not in itself informatics but the raw material of 
inftirmation. which human inielligcnce through a ptocessof selection, orders 
and coalesces to ptodiKe infomutkin. A niutilx of informabon can become 



illfaPiigogirK. Nobel laureate In 111 vi^ 11^ jmcmbcr of [he Club of Rome, Lkvekip«dia 
loptc bf llllanUy in hli works- 



Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



knowltdgf. Again knowledge (£a« no I sponunroudf goierjtf 
undersiandiE^g; for thi$ li requite? wisdom bom of CKpcricncc. VciMi wc -ace 
concerned with i H:onilnuuin which runs from crude ixA. [hrough 
mto-rmation and knowledge to the end Teflnemenr al wisdom Dau we 
poss«& in large quantities, but inFormadon can easily be concealed jnd lost jn 
JE&dJHirder. Today we have enormously greater amounts oFinFormatEonind 
ki>owlcdgc about mm and the universe than out lotcfathcrt hid. but thcic 
ate few sips thai human wisdom h^s incteased signlhc^ntk ovet the \ii\ f l^e 
thousand yeais In these difficult and complei: nmeswe begm loiealiie thai 
the putsuit of wisdom Is the essential challenge dial faces humai^ily. 



Where IsTheknowledBf w^iftllsk>st ininforruttor? 
And where ii ttw wisdooi thai Is tosr in hnvwredgie? 



T.S. Eliot- 



One would expect thetefore that teseatch on the luEuce of wisdom and \ii 
genetation would be of ifie highest pnoriLyr But have wc the ingredients lo 
srati such a ^tojcct. acid if ptesented to otic of the gieac [^search [oundaiicins. 
would it have a hope of accepartc-;? However, m teceni years much 
knowledge has been gained on die workings of the btiin. on hum^r 
behaviour, and indeed on the nature of homo upiens. ^och inlerdisciplmaty 
reseatch, -which involves biochemistry, physiology, neurology, 
endocrinology, molecular biology, psychology, anthropology and many 
other sciences, holds gteat ptomise and should be jciivcly mppocied, 
althou^ Its finding may seem, at thJs stage, metelv theoreucal. It should 
explotenoEonly the rational mind, but also emotional and intuitional aspects 
ofhemgwhKhplaysuchantmporuni part in the life of the individual and Are 
j[ the toot of his appjiendy inatlorul a[iliude^ jnd behaviour 

Researchalmedattheextensionofknowledge and conducted witEioutthc 
aim of immediate practical use js known as pure o[ fundamental research and 

It is usually undettafcen in the laboiatoilc^ of universities oi, as m the East 
European countiies. in tfle institutes of Academies of Science. Scientific 
Euiopcati countries, in die Insiltuw* of Academics of Science Sclenitfic 
undersiandlng, iti^ng fiom puie research is an essential clement of 
contemporary culture. University research also has an important educational 
functionr Umvecsitv teachers who are Ktively engaged in research and hence 
working at die advancing froniier^ of knowledge ate able to cransmlt ihc splnr 

1. Biimh p«i dnd Mctr^r iiUA-iW] 



Auteursrechteiyk beschermcJ materiaal 



138 • The First GkMRffftlutmt 

of eHc scientific meihod and to Inspuf thtir ^ludmts. This function Is u 
Imponant In the less developed k in ib? Indusiriillzed countries. Indeed n Is j 
pterequisltc to the undersonding of today's wtirld, necessary l[ the offering 

of science and technology arc lo be of use in the process of development 

There is 3 second type of fundamenal research ir^cieasingly puisued in 
indusmaliZMi \t%\i}t\%. (\^tt\t\y oriented fundarnent^J research, which is an 
essential pan of the inpui In the dewlopmcm of the most advanced 
technologies. Such research, while not expected lo have direct praccical 
application, is needed to identify areas of ignorance which have lo be 
eliminated in the develt>pment of advanced technical procesEes, Such 
rc^jrch mjy be cattied oui in the Ijboniorir^ of corpotJiion& or under 
contract In universities- Itcanrhusbf^ very useful link between tndusrry and 
academic 

Much re^e^ich [oday Is of a direc[ly applied nature, aimed at solving 
spccihc problems in indusliy. agriculture or the public services. It may be 
research in ;hc ndiur^l ^cicncn iuch n chcn^lsn^y. physics dnd biology, or i^ 
economics and chc behavioural sciences Indeed, the complexity of so many 
coniemporary problems demands a cotnbined Attack from several disciplines. 
Experience shows thai in such multidisdplinary approaches, research workers 
from m^ny sciences, natural and social, in dealing widi ^ particular complex 
problem, soon acquire a degree of communication which transcends the 
boundaries between the disciplines. The cultivation of mullidiscplinary 
research is uigenrly required by the resolutlquc. It Is difficult to generate 
within the uniuer^ines, &ince they jre uerdcjlly organized into departments 
and faculties which often have liltleamlaclwitheachother^Apphed research 
rrwax. be intensified m the developing .countries where ic is already widely, if 
InsufficieniJy, pursued in the agrfculiuial sector. In such countries it a much 
less common m indusliy. siiKe the small size and relatively law level of 
iophisiicatJon of firms mikes 11 difficult » Identify technical prijbkmi or 10 
afford to employ scientists to solve them. 

Technological development is the essential . but only the initial step in 
industrial innovation. Ii consists of bringing together technical knowledge 
acquired ihrcugh research or purchase, and todevelop it through j chemical 
pilot plant or engineering prototype so as to be a reliable and effecnve 
nianufaaurmg process, which is competitive In the market- Thccost of the 
development phase is usually greater than [he cost of the reseatch stage on 
which IT IS based However, there are many other elements involved in 
cechnologicdt innovation, such as market surveys to test the potential demand 
for the new product and hence its economic viability, the acquisition of risk 
capital and management shI Is. as well ds recruitment and training of a reliable 



Auteu^srechteli|k beschermd materiaal 



Missing page 



140 • The First GXtMRtmlutum 

wc dcsnoy ^ and f+>ereby ounclvw. 

3i wiving or jlIpYlaQng man^ of the contcmponr^ problems. These 
Innovaiions will be both remcdtal jnd prevcnDvc, Vic shall outline here i 
tew of the most obvious lines of jctack. 

Fintas alrndy sfT«5ed. riwK Is an immediate nctd foi a iwa^iivc camfdlgn 
for energy conservation and efficiency. On the consetvaoon side, the 
requirement 1i more for ihe appiicsuc^of well uiidersrood Eechniques than 
foicncirch. However, if thks Is lo succeed [here wlII have lobe considerable 
changes In human habln, and chl5 w/lU cnuil new iciivides In the sodal 
wlcrTces. Th^rc rs. houjtver, great icopc for rficarch aimed at Improving 
efficiency in the genefiuon, uansinitsion and utilization of energy (tor 
exaiTiplc» by using supezcondLiaoi^] . in the design of new types oi en^nes , in 
michlnesofawideviiretyofEypes, andmcheErLicalm^nubcruit' Techniques 
of energy accounting: need to be developed and applied. WhJle the bulk of 
these effoits will have to be made in the tounoles of the Nonh with their 
energy Imei^ve eccmom^. the South with Is incicjsmg papulations will 
fice the same needs, k Is encouiaglng [o note ibe recogni [ion of this In die 
recent 'Nairobi Declaration on Climadt Change' [Ma? 1W0|. 

Secondly, ItvFlllbenecessary (o give i very high priority loan Iptematkmal 
ptogtammc of rcscaich on altein^Qve energy sources and simibr work in 
Individual counoiC3- This should include nuclear fuskm development- 
magnetohydrodynamlcs and the whole range of soft energies. Workshoiild 
iho bf jccelenied on Ehe possibilities of i futuie hydiogeti «onomy, ihc gas 
being produced by the decoitiposiOan of watei by eleorolydc or caialydc 
nicans.Thts is not an altetnacfve energy but an energy transmisslDn method 
for use in luiomobjies, aircraft, and so on, if oil becomeB costly or is 
discouraged for earth wjrming reasons. 

fteyond this, the search tnusi go on for new, clean technolcrgies and foi 
ways to clean up uadirlona I processes- In the chemlcaJ Irhdustry, for cjtample, 
research could be directed cowards ImprovtDg nKthods of manuEaccute 
including reiearth on new catalysts S«cJtch In this Induary must also be 
aimed at Rndfng ways to make toxic wastes harmless with mttilmum energy 
espendilure Here, as in other industries, reseaich on recycling techniques is 
required. A further tzsk for the chemical indus^y 4j to dcv^ bode^AdAUc 
plastics for packaging and other purposes. 

In agriculture and ihc jgrci irkdastriCS a deUrmlMd iHon \i Meded U 
reduce energy me. Much useful research is already in progress in breeding 
non- leguminous cereah capable of ^xing their own nitrogen, which will 
reduce the u«e of nittogcnous fcitllizcjs. More woik is required to repUcc 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd inatenaa! 



AgetmoftbtRaotuiiijw • 141 

chemical p«ticld« b^ Uolo^c^l coniral sysicms. uj Jnimstfy icscjtcK in 
genetic engineering w as to provide basic cereal crops with grcitcj tcsisiance 
Lo insect and fiuig^l d^mige dud dlfo lo po^ibk changa m cIJeihic. 

In ibefteld of trark^porEalicm dJK> Inteiesting workLs In progress iiiKc, in 
view of [he desirabjikyof encouraging communal Qivdllng, new ^ndflcKible 
&)rstcms of urban trazsporadon aic urgently required. 
SfMHH atii ittkntla^^ iof Atfdtpmnl. CHspailtfcs between developed and 
developing countries in&ctenceandlechnology are even greater than in their 
economic leveb. Same ^ per centof the winld's research and development is 
carrted out in the industnalized councnes. Ii Is aUo true &ai the poorer i 
country i&, che grwicr will be [he pioporOon of Its tcienOsts wgaged In 
fundamental research. While the large developing counoles such as BraztL 
India and Mexico have an Infiasauauie capable of supporting a slgniflcanc 
CKtent of applied te$eaKh and development. In die tai of die developing 
world there is Litde appl;ed research other than Ln agriculture. In luch 
countrin, a mcic Incicisc In [he numbrr ol ^cjentisu i^ unlikely lo influetxe 
eoKKimic growth; indeed it u more likelyto increase the brain drain. This is 
because there Ls generally no employment ftn the scientists in the productive 
seoots. Sdence in ibese countries can only contribute slgniflcandy to 
development if Ir Is tndmately linked with the produciTve process. 

It \i generally accepted that i impi, dnd perhaps Ik indict need in ihc 
devcbpmeiLt of the South is the creatian of an indigenous capacity in each 
country for research and development. This was the main conclusion of the 
UN Conference on Science and Technology for Devebpment held tn Vienna 
in 1979, at ivhich various Anandal and other mechanisms were devised to 
make this possible. After morcthan a decade, however, there is litde to show. 
Yet the need remaim to build this capacty if the developing countrtes are to 
enter the modem world economy . There is a vicious circle here Jf productive 
cjpKity js [0 grow jud hei^ce If development Is to ukc pUcc. i critical 
scientific and technological Infrastructure is necessary. ¥et such an 
infrdfCTUcture seems impos&rble to build unless it is In symbiosis with the 
productive meanSr The means to overcome this impasse present a vial 
challenge to the countries corKenied and to the International community. 

Thr Toit of man mtdiit 

The impact of ma^ media en public o[>Ln]onjnd Individ uah no IcrngcE h^to 
be demomtraied: a larger and larger part of huTn^nkind will henceforth be 
deeply influenced by theradioand tele vision prf^rimmes it has access to. For 
bener or for worse, the media are among the main agents involved in formjng 
public opinion and influencing [ht! Lhiiiking of individuals. 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



142 • The first GtehtdRrPslutvm 

The rol? oF miss m«dla, however , has so f^T ntvcr betn d«ply^ly^ ^ 
all Jrs dlmcnsJons, Wc know very llttlr dbout the Ddtur? and durition of ihe 
mHuence of various media. Out ECisonkng Is based more on impressions and 
hypotheses dun on clearly esabllshcd facia- even In die West, litc 
phenomenon IS sail recent and the leasonlng Is founded on the reactions ot 
Western public opinion. In developing rauntrles the phenomenon u even 
more recent and stiU of quiic limited scope, i^hich makes d>e $cudy of the 
reactions in these countries more problematic. 

rhc icdctions that have been recorded so far are for ihe most part cillical 
when diey dre not outright ncgauve- the iziesponsLblty of journalise \i 
frequently ctlUclied, n Is their subjccttvity and 6c1t lick of pofoslonjl 
cthics.fiutthegeneralroleof massmedlaistoonewfor ustobeabletodraw 
definite conclusions alum It. This uwhf it is hltlng to consider the question of 
the true power of mass media, and of the role they now play and can play In 
future in the bulldmgofthe new global socictyr The answer to these questions 
i^ccnsitaLes i dialogue with CDmmui^icidon profcsslonaL with a view lo 
fmdmg out what role they are ready to a^ume, not only for a better 
comprehension by the public of the world problematiquc, but also of the 
maliLikqu^, 

Experience has shown that the power of the media often refer ted to Is not 
just an Impression There is no question about the reality of such power- 
consider, for example, the role pEayed by transistor radios In Inciting the 
Algerian war of IndependeiKe, or the pressure brought to bear by the press in 
the Watergate aflair which kd to the leslgnatlon of cbc prRident of the 
United Slates. 

The medi J aba represent a balaixing power In democracies by exposing 
pollncal or financial scandals, as also by defending consumer interests. It Is 
true that they are alleys in danger of being in*niputaicd — whatever the 
political regime— due Lo political ptcssure, ecoiwmic Intcrcats. 
disinformation procedures or even self-censorship. Mass media, especially 
television, have acquired considerable power over the last two decades- they 
have not, however, reached the level of maturity and rGponslbilicy which <hc 
exercise of such power would require. Where development is concerned, 
television has often complacently displayed horrifying images of the hunger 
and death of children in Ethiopia and Sudan, images that seem to have been 
taken out of Nazi coikcentratlon camps . Viewers across the world have been 
amply exposed ro the sensational aspects of underdevelopment and have 
been brutally shocked by such images. 

However, doesn't the public expect this dramatic version of inFormauon? 
A frightening even! induces curiosiiv Jnd the newspaper headline War 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal 



Missing page 



144 • The Pint GhkUR^PotMim 

(bscunlons. Envlronnvnal and pollutton j»ues src Omldly making an 
appearance In fotmc pcogrammoH while development Is jusi bcginnjng ro 
be trcjicd in l{5 pralQve dspMO. 

Wc prcvlouEiy mcnOoned in aui fKomiTKndjtion^ a number of mofc 
spedfk subject! thai have co be brought co ihc acccnbon oFchc pubbc (hrou^ 
fducanoiul prog^amrtit^^. ^ufh a envirsrtfflf auI pfoKcfloft, owrgy avlng, 
the role of science and lechnology, ihe Incerdependen-ceof countrlnln the 
North and those in ihe South and whalthis means for each Ddhem, and so on. 
The freedom of mEortnitlon, the Ereeactes foraJJ to Information and the 
pfi] ralism of InfixnHllon remain *e noble causcjof bacdes never totally won 
md foiewCT waged 3g3ln. In ihc process of jdipOng To change, crfconanut>us 
learning in a transiuonal society, and of adiusting to uncenauity and 
connplexiCy. (be tole at dnc media becomes comideiabLe, 

[I will certainly be necesjary ro engage In a broad debate wnb the 
)oumali&Es and top niedJa executives in order to deRne theii new role. This U 
dn inlQitivr the Club of FUitnc will ccctiiniy taXc a [he flisi seep In i long 
dialogue^ 



Auteu^srec^lteli|k beschermd materiaal 



10. Motivations and Values 



Wc rclumchncc morelDoncof thcmainmollfsof ihecontcmporiry *«ik. 
the domlnani inllucrtcc of technology in shaping our lives and society. 

Scdrrng Ertnn the IndusDJdl RcvoluWnp ^vc have gradually aOapicd out 
jspiiaiions dnd iifestyJes lo fit in wl[h an ever moie &ophj$<lca[cd ^nd petv^s jve 
technology which has pennlned die «n)oymeni of what has bcei^ seen as 
mjterul proigres. This has, ai course, incrca&ed die pcosperkry of i wjdc 
cross section of [he populaOon in the Industrialized couniries, while reducing 
poverty. Improving health condlttons, extending Ufe especl^ncy, providing 
general. If not always appropriate, education, and introdudng inany social 
amenities. The recagniOan ih^i technology has a detern^in^uve mie In world 
dewlopment is relatively recent and, ev«j today, the economic iyncm which 
relies so heawJiy 00 technological solutions to problems, has not yet fully come 
to terms with ti. It Is still Implicit In the thinking of many economists that 
lecbnologtcal developments ajtse ^om the Inter actioTi of economic fraces and 
are, jsJiwcre. one of the muscles of Adam Smith's 'Invtslble hand' There is 
no doubt much truth in this; however, morr and morr trchnologica] 
innovatKjns originate from discoveries Jn the sclenUAc laWatotlcs ^d could 
not have been foreseen. Thecefbie, sdcnce is (he autonomous force which 
gives lise to profit motivated technology, In cteaiing new products and 
systems, and hence new demands. 

Despite the unwanted social and ecological side effects of tcchnobgyn and 
i general suspicion of It as the creator of the nuclear bomb and of genetic 
manipulanorts, general expectationsaf an cver-mcreaamg affluence and more 
and more niaierijl possesions flowing from it pcisist wjthin an economk 
sysiem which Is driven by the sdmulallon of consumer spending and credit 



Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



146 • The Fmt GUIml B^Pt>lmim 

dvilJibiLiy, The lu:furl« of yesrcrday become the nccc^lQes of todiy; 
pUnncd olMolciccncc speeds up the Eumover o{ goods, the «as[ti iA jodcty 
ucumulileand are even more difficult lo dispose of as HJenQfk: saphlstiudon 
diffuses Into ever^y goods. 

There is, of course, the other side of the coin. Considerable amounts of 
wealth from economic growth hive been dtverted to the Creadon af social 
ber>eflts — uneinploynient bene^ls, health services, education, and welfare 
mea&utcs to reduce poverty . In a number of couhhICh this process has been so 
strong thai It has evolved to form the welfare sate, which U benefidaT but hx, 
psychological costs. For Instance. It is felt by miny that the welfare approach 
cncouiagc^ ah ovci reliance on the sate, wich an utibcalihy loi^tlng of 
individual responsibility and InlQadve. The pcernahsm of employers, that 
was resented so much by the trade unions, has been replaced by the 
paternalism of the state whose huge bureaucracies are. In turn, regarded as 
distant, faceless and Impersonal. 

The materialistic technology baicd approach to dcvelopmcni h^ 
penetrated Into societies and cuhures of all lypcs, and even the most tigid 
fundamentalist cultures find Ir impossible to resist the pnnnlse trf power and 
affluence which il appears to offer. The goal (>f material 3^uence SMMS 10 
gctvciaie gieed and selfishness. Not that these features ha ve ever been ibsent 
In Individuals and sodedes. but they appear to be magnified by the shrinking 
of oon materialtst values- and have become more apparent due to rhe 
tllsclosuies of corrupdon. crime and financial scandals by the press. 



Our presenl civjiiiation is based materially on an pviraofdinarily 
successEul r«hnology and splituail/or practkally nothing, 

DernlsGabor' 



The shorccommg of science isthatalthou^hithascantrjbutcdgicatlyiacHir 
material well being, promodng health, increasing our lltcspaEin giving us 
leisure, it has done llide to enrich human existence, Ln comparism with 
tlirecdy material Improvements. The imperative need now is to attempt to 
master techixilogy and mould it to suit a human environment, so as to make i\ 
conxribuic to chc general and ^uaiainabie well being ol i\\ peoples in this 
generation and the succeedmg generations, within a holistic global and even 
cosmic framework, and to balance material advances by culuvating soclaL 
moral and spiritual attributes. This is becoming as obvious in the developing 
countries as it is already In the industrialized countries. 



I Cdbor, Ytn 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal 



Missing page 



148 • The fmt GhihtU Bivotmum 

generation {eels ihc jbiencc of d sense oi ^IFand th«y do not know where lo 
look fcR j[. 

These feature . projected from che Individual level, operaw 
anrespondlngly In die social envuonmml. Nauoul egoism Is likewise 
ambtval-cnE! 1[ can express Itself as a natural and desirable bve of one's counn^y 
nr fihntf community, or ii cu b? whipped up lo arouse chauvinism, 
xenophobia, racism, hatred of other onin tries at styles of living, and finally lo 
caus« a -kvar. In Inumabcinal negotiations ic often surfaces as the advocacy of 
narrow self tnccte^c by one nation against the wkder harmony and future 
well being of a gioup of nations. Including Its own, and often iacttfices 
long-ccrm self itiicicsi to scoic Immediate tacrtcal pdnu. 

The exigence of these matteis Lsseldojii acknowledged ind when they 
do emerge, they ate shiouded in taboo, if this diagnosis Is dt all vahd, theie 
would seem to be anced for IlfUrtg the taboos and hortcsd^ acknowledging 
the existence and power of the negative and positive aspects of tntllvldual and 
collective bchavioui, and tot ddoptuig an ippmth based on the cnlighiencd 
comrtHHi Inteiests of every inhabitant of this small planet to ensuie that 
sustainable physical and social environments can be established for ourselves 
and our descendants. 

Thisseltcentrctinesj, however. Is merely one aspect of a broader question: 
what are the spliJtual and ethical "values that will constitute a Foundation tor 
the xwrj global society, the emergence of which we are observing today' 



Oh stwler of songi, my ^leJ^tl 




Wherf will you find Ehem? 




Y'OU AY^ npfdy and poor, 




biitgnspfirmlyth? t^dck jndTPd mV 




Hlsdom, 




r 

And p^rFiap^you wilinokmgfrbea bcgsar. 






AztK poetry 


- 


-MSSQntJniS Mpdkanoi 




Fol.6a,r. 



A wv basis jot mttioi andsptntuA^ values 

The global society cannot emerge unlc$s kt drinks itom the source of moral 
and ipititual values which stake out its dynamics. Beyond cultures, religions 
and phlLo^phi^s. there a in hum^ beings J diii»t for freedom. 3n ^^pirjdon 
to overcome one's limits, a que^I for a beyond that seems unfathomable and is 
often unnamed. Ejiperience has shown that no dictatorship, no violence, no 
restriction has ever managed to completely wipe out of man 'shean this often 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal 



Moavadimt atuJ VWmo • 149 

pa^lonalc qii«t whtdi tmaruLa from the collective uekoiucIous analysed by 
Carl |ung. 

Individ ujh and groups uc Incmsingly placing this iuuc aithc forctioncof 
ibeirconcfim. IhusiheSouthConimjs&hjnHptcs^dcdovcrby lulku&Nyctcrc, 
cxpics^ a vcty clear poaltkin In thac respeci In lo last report [1Q90] , showing 
&tgns of an encouraging rise in awireness: 

In xhc final analysis- die Soudi's plea for justice, equity and democracy in 
the global society cannot be drssociated trom its pursuit of these gOals 
wlthtn Lis own societies. Commitmeni to democrauc values, respect foi 
fundamental rights— paTOcularly the right to diucnc— (air Ufatrrfnc for 
minorities, concern for the^oor and undetprulleged. probity in public 
ItFc. willingness lo snde dispuEcs without recourse to war — all these... 
increase the Souths chancn oE securing i new world order. 

However, noble dedaritmns such as this, whkih formerly inspired 
individuals and sociPt)es, no longer snm to be accepQble in Lontemporar]^ 
aaiviiy, [n the behaviour of peof^ and of states, even thc«e widi 
consntutkmally guaranteed Eights, morals are flouted and the law ignored or 
twisied to suLi the EXRivenlence of the authorities- [n 50 many Ed jDorL^h:ps jnd 
areas of communxation, the Implicit trend is 'back to the jungle'. 

A^ already mcnUoncd. people need tg p«xss a xnx of xlf respect If they 
are to lead a life of decent human dlgnlry- This was understoodwellknmany 
iraditKinal socteDes, but it is very dlfflcull to sustain in die whirlwind of 
change. As a consequeiKeofthe many cross-continenal migrations, people 
are laced with culturtlconiradtctkins, and often e:tpcneiKe an identity crisb 
or are demoralized. In Wc$tem society with rhcLr shallow consumerism h '[ 
am what I own' or 'Nmwhitldo', the more FundamentaEaipects of bfc have 
shrunk in importaiKe, including those of religion, ethnic identiity, and 
Inherited value? anti bellefe. Such i iJtuacion lead* lo hypet individuality, 
selfishrie^iof all kinds, over ^consumprkon. a^ well Js an excessive search tor 
distraction, as tor instance in TV viewing and drug addiction. There is an 
obvtoui need foi a newa.pp(a»ch in which values are deliberately inculcatetl 
to prtivide spiritual ^cnh and meaning lo the life of the individuaL however, 
change is very often Kcn a a threat to the self 

Have tTad^r^o^^^l values then been suddenly forgotren or abandoned^ Have 
ipli nuaKalucsb-een set aside ill at once? What li the evidence Mn our chapter 
on 'The Human Malaise' , we Indicated that these values have in tkct been 
progrcsisively rejected by receni genera.cions. In the industrial societies 
spiritual values have been en>led by the Invasion of niaterialiHn whkh has 
also infcaed the elite classes in the developing countries. Again, confusion in 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal 



150 • The Fmt Global RfPohaioH 

vaiuesarlsFs in BoniF coanttifs from [ht crj;« in ihc ma|ot religions, duelo 
tbe djEEicuLty ihfx fjc? in adapting to i world which ti ur>dcrgolng tapld 
chnige wjihoui lo^jng chc oKintc d their mf sa^gc, as wf LI u of rrsponding to 
Cht ^rioui questioning of the bewjldcrcd pcc^lc of thdr congregatians. 
Moral values aic alio being eroded, since they are fUpandy Jgjwicd by dw 
individLulsandudedesloTw-hamibey are presumed robe [he Insplrarloaul 
message. Lax behavloui, selfbhness md nuienjli^m appeac to have made 
tbcm Inelevani^ But people arc troubled by such ^ympioms. Ncv^ r before has 
the issue of values been thesE]b)ec[of so many symposia, discussions and so 
much research This demonsiraies that a need Is being expressed with 
Increasing intensjiy for J value ?y?iem which would provide stablTlty to the l[fe 
oEindividkiaksandsocEcty.and which would inspire the vision of a syslemaUc 
wocid capable of leading to a syaematic future, 

C3oes this mean thai a new value system Is In the mahtng, which would be In 
opposltlantotradiuonal values or to dvcapadtv of tradlOonai values to lake a 
itandonihe new challenges, such as gcnetit engineering, thjc no ubk human 
conscience and judgement' Can «e speak today of universal human values 
ihac would be common to aW the inhabltancs of the planet, despite the 
diversity of their cultures? 

These questions are not euy to answer and yel they are whiit our future 

depends on: ? globaC society on hardly be poaiblc wjthoui being based on 

oimmon or compatible values diat will shape attitudes, die common 
delciminationtoface up to challenges, the mor^l strength to respond to them 
and the mjnagem^rtt of change We cifinot want the emetgh^^ ^bb^l society 
unless It Is Eo-unded on \hc pouiblllty of llvltkg together widi the aciLcptancc d£ 
differences and plunlbm. 

A Large proportion of traditional elhks are still meaningful toda^, though 
they may take different forms because of changes in the conditions of 
icfacncc Vinually viajv/bac. present-day wdcty Is moic open ^nd 
richer, or at lea^t^^picestoa shared well being irisjlso better Informed. For 
eiamp^. the Idea ol solidarity is changing f^om a concept limited to die 
^inlly tribe to a much broader concept, while Hi strictly tribal connotation 
may be openly dhcredLicd, 

To ihj^ end, vilucs may be defined and hopefully agreed upon if ihcy are 

expressed In a way idat Is bcner adapted to the present situation. Among 
permanent values we would suggest freedom, human rights and 
respon&ibiliun, family life, equal rights for men and women, compassion tor 
tile aged and die disabled, tolerance, respea toe life and peace, and the seaich 
for truthr 



Auteursrechtelijk bescherind materiaal 



Missing page 



152 • TbeFtraGiebtURrpolutum 

the cdm of»bdirnyH dlcoted by the Fict ib[ cIk 

drmeiuion of ihf probltms posrd id 
humanity rod3vrcqulTC(-C^v>pfraEion 
b^twe^n human bein^ as a con^ 
dlticn for tbdr suivivaL 

Anfweiliica] vIstoD such 35 this svillneccsuiJTy have rcpcTCUSislons on ihr 
national Irvf I. 

In OJncluskin, the speed of evoIuOon and at current duriRn leads us to 
constdct rhar the rjme lector h3£ tn ednlcal value in loelf. Ever; minuic \oiv 
every dttisLcifi dcbycd mcim more dcidii from iorvaTton and malnu^ridon, 
meam a fuithcr slide towards irreversible damage caused b^ polluaon 
phenomena in the environment. No one will evei know foz suic the human 
ai^ Ein^ridal cost tA lost dme- 

OncediU has been recognized, theethksof solidarity and of tjme leads to 
an ethics of scOon, where i:a[h cin?en must feci concerned and mrffiS^ 

hjnuelF lor acUon. The Isolated Individual alvbrayi feels helplen amidst ibe 
Ininnenslty of die battle in whkh he Is surprised to find himself. This should 
induce Individuals 10 associate with others, jnd to Bnd logetherihe lorce and 
the effectiveness which ihey -cannot musler alone. Collective ethics depend 
on the ethical behaviour d. ea^ individual m die group and It is obvious that 
Invetiely, the Individual's adherence CD a code of ethical behavlotrr can be 
encouraged. Invited and aiou&ed by the odlective appioach. 

Hffw mn d^ffrrmi FroiJxlufnai and mo4im, colkcrtvf and individual vniui sy^t^ems 
&nxist both in a sodrtv and at shf individual ievei} 

The emergence of certain untveisaJ values such as human Ei^ts or lespeci 
for nature does not mean the end of uiccstial values even thou^ they may 
con [ladia «<:h oihei Inaddicon, individual values may aiumes conflict witfi 
collective vaJucs, or one value mjy conflici with another . A classic example of 
tht^ conflict Is the sale of arms, which is a source of profit fac anattonarnda 
source of employment For numeraus men and women, yet isLn opposiOon 
to the same nation's dmre fcir peace. 

The hain'i^nTlouftc existence Q^v^rydiffacnt values tsnodiJngncWpbutK 
has been seriously undet mined by the rise in fundamenTaium. It Is rather the 
re IdOre Importance attached to the values that change accof ding to the age of 

the ideology or teligion it\ sway, Aj eich person Is biologically and sodo- 

culiurally uolqiie, die emc^lf should be on the individual aspect. 
"CoJkctlvc' values ve often the outcome of a choice made — or worse. 
Imposed— by those holding; the reliu of pon/ein who warn at all costs to 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd materiaal 



Meapot^mj and Valtus • \ S3 

lmpo^t iheir values on tlv Fot by showmg conEcmpi forothcis' valua, by 
evm^CEcmptingEomppmsthfm. 'Collfctivr' values cm only be ukcn inio 
coriMdcraDon when ihrre r^iisis iruf trrcdom dnd d hlgb level uF culiuril 
development- 

Elite ctrclcs 3EC ohftn icconckkd easily ixi changing values despite the 
jurfatccono-ovctsy. The general public is iim involved, oril)' manipulated, in 
dcb^ieiof ihls t^. The gulf between elite thtnkmg and popular thinking js 
enormous. It Is here that wr find dtstortionsarKllensLonj that are difhcult or 
even impossible \d resolve. 

The jnrcrcsting and important point here is that di^ercni value ^yjiem^ do 
In fare (onTlnuf to » etlst, fven though their u eilsienre I& somminn 
coloured by opposlnon and rnlstrust. Indeed, it Is not so much a question of 
the Co ejilstence of conindictory value -systems as of the same values beii^ 
interpreted jn different terms. When all Is said and done, the factor that 
makessuchco cjiisteEice possible, as abo the plutalliy of InicrpEeiatkons, IS the 

capacity br dt^loguc jnd communication. 

To conclude this brief survey, we must stress two phenomena that are 
going \Tt opposite ways. There Is Indeed a weakentng of rhe moral sense of 
Individuals, who fed cheated noc only because the ethical structure that used 
to serve as their reference and to whld^ they wlllhigly submitted has 

collapscdp but dUo bcciuK the ihicais po$cd by the contcmpotaiy woild 

JlCuaiion have frightened them into a chilly self- withdrawal Sunultancously, 
there is a prOigtcsslve collective awareness of the great problems of the world, 
old and new. which is encouraging research on solutions. The spiritual and 
ethical dimension is no longer an obiea of scom oi Indlfieicnce: Ji is 
perceived as a necessity that should lead ro a new humanism. 



May Il» divine ^rlT prcnct us a(l; may hc work Eog^Thtr with grpat 
energy; may our sludy be Fruitful jnd itioroLigh; may [here be no hau-ed 
between us. 


Aurr. Pnor Ph^ PH^r P«« 






Vffdk Prayer (3000 R.CI 



Auteu^srec^lteli|k beschermd materiaal 



11, Learning our Way into a New Era 



We shall make no artempf \o summarize f^itr conrluskms: Indeed the wrj 
raturc of ihc ptoblcnuElquc preclude such a ^wsiHlty. Imtad we shall 
make some observations md ^uggeifkms iS to how to blaze a Qall Into the 
unkriown landscape of dK fucute (hrough learning, which is a Jcadmg tutiuc 
of the resolutique. BcEoie doing u. how^vtr. we shall ce staie a Fewguidil^ 
piliKlpks [h3[ arc scattered throughout the book; 

' — need foe the mvolvemert jnd parucip^non of ev^iyone in seeking a wij 
through die InceicwlEitng complex of corucmpor^ry problems; 

— recogniOon that the posslblllQes o( posftive change reside In the 
moQvaiioai ^kJ valuer ihac detcrmiiK nu behavhour^ 

— undetstandJngdiat^bfhavkjurofnanoniandsqctetleflrenecisthatofits 
Individual Qtuew and mcmbcis; 

— XEcgtatKC oF t^ postulate that drarnatlc solutloos are unlikely to cotnc 
from Ihe leaden of govenimenls, bul that [housands <?[ small, wise 

dedsxnu. reilecnng the new realizationoEmillioni of ordinary people are 
necessary for sccmldg eIw iucvival ol society; 

— practice of die pttnclpic that [^vllege, whether lt>dlvldu>l or nujcnal. 
must alwjy^ be complemenled by a correspondLng respotisiblllty. 

Assbtedintbelntroductfon, theidejsand proposals Eoc action in tKrs^iaok 
areotteredasabasLsfor learning our way Into the future. It IS HOC necessary — 
in^ked A would be Imposskble to expect — thai there should be complete 
agieemeni with ill the dioughcs wc have cxpiessed wjth regard to the world 



Auteursrechleiyk beschermd maleriaal 



Ltarttii^ ffur Way mOf a Notf I^ra • 155 

In rfvolulion, of on ih? r^lativF Importance wr hjvc given lo 6k various 
problems. The mGterljJ preicnled here should nlher be regarded as metier 
EoL 'widc^prcjd di^cuuion and dcb^K; K ii lijccodcd to sp^rk oK ^vdric^yoE 
fx^mlndDoiK ind reassessments on Lbe ptn cf those responsible for the 
mdmgement of sodcty n ilJ levels. We ilso hope thdt the znjny, whose 
conQCt& with governance ar-e quite lemoie but wbcise future b deeply 
Involved In the forthcoming changes, wiil begm ro ur>dcrstand ntiorcdeiily 
\he signlfkjnce of many of the lopm present^ here, such as the 
InLerdepeiKJerKe oFib? lutions and the [nteraction of the problems. The Qme 
has come to show how every Individual is more or less dlreoly concerned 
wtdi the problems of the world atid the rhinge* that are brewing, even if he 
ot she can moie easily perceive the sytrtptoms than their causes. Even now. 
few remain unCDUched^ onr hjs rally lo mention the problems of CO- existence 
with Immigrants of different ethnic origins, the effect on children and 
idolescents of certain television programmes, die Intemationallntton of 
lutaifujbila or thr inif rnauunal ^prud of anrnimcr produm to dioujc i 
vatlety d lactioas. 

To leam oui way through this period oF transition and to identify sure 
polntsof reference, we have to modify -our re^^oiiing, OUT mental Images, our 
behaviour and understand die realities on wbch we base our judgements so 
thalwecancopewlchthl^ woe [dmutancn, with IQ array- of global issues such 
as the environment, food security, developmenlof the poor countries, the 
alscs of govctnance. and all the others we have inempied to describe. 

The complex and uncertain siruatjr^ In the future will faru decision 
makers at all levels, especially the politicians, to search for new approaches 
and to adopt unconventional attitudes. But It will not be possible to 
imp-lement chelr decisions, no matter bow brave and pertinent they axe, 
unless they succeed In obtaining wide public support. However, general 
raliiance to- change ind fear of the unknown connituie an unfavourable 
environment for str-ong and unconventional action on any Issue. The 
d)'namlcs of public opinton will not be able to operate usefully, unless 
jiidividujls have access to lnformailc?:L about che nifure of present global 
phenomena jnd acquire through their understanding oE them the conviction 
[hat the vciy survival of the huminracc^ IS dtstdkcUtsalwobvious, however, 
that the eloquence of the facts alone will be iraufficlent to convince 
individuals that these phciwmena are of immediate concern to them. To most 
people they will seem distant, theoretical and too vast In con^parlson with the 
problems of everyday life, their family, and their professional, financial, 
health, and day-to-day survival problems. The imge of difficulties may well 
elicit a reaction of withdrawal, a refusal to understand, or anxletv at the 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd inateriaal 



156 • The Firff GMai Bjvoiitimt 

thought of hjvlT>g TO gnpplE dnpttr hclplnmc&s jcid IsobOon, wlfh } set of 
hca ihn uc mind bogglrng m d^cii vailciy and compicxity. 

Such <3oubu irid (^cling^ of alicnaOon w||] have n> be iduiow^ledged and 
deliberately addrcucd so that ibcy on be d1$pellcd bf sharing Itrn. and i 
^lllarlty with the bcc^ gE^duaUy achieved ihraugh di^u^ston with others. 
The situation mu^t be ^^en in loal and personal tfrms. This i^ one ioson fot 
the need for a new, revitalized democracyH organized on a more p^Eilapitivc 
basiE. stimulated by the comprehension of global concerns. 

The need, then is lo think gbbaTivdOd act locdJly'. The CI uboFRomehx, 
since Ita establishment, realized [he ncHJorsuch an apf*Mch and there arc a 

mu^diudc of w)ys rn lA'hich j[ couLd t>e ^icvcd^ wc oitci a fcwcjumpJra In 

the following pages. 

Ciaiml-IjiiallnterailKui 

On die Initiative of Mauiice Strong' and die Club of ELome. a meeting was 
hcldlnlWfl in Denver, widi some forty Colorado decision makers to discius 
the Following question: in whdt way? do the great world problems afTett the 
economic and toclal life of the stare of Colorado and in what way car. ^e 
polidcjhnd economi cleider^ of ihe sate cieicisc an influence on dlosegreal 
probiemsf During the work jnd discussions of the meeting, the necessity for 
joinT action becan^ more and mote evidfni in a number of area, e^tccially 
onenvjiounaentalmcies. treverymhabitanl in Colorado made energy saving 
as well as fighting agarnsi waste his or her daily duty, their actions would 
collfcduely Improvr the utuaOon of Colorado, jnd therefoie of ihf ilnired 
Suie^, and of the world. It the individual ts alone, the result wril be merely 
lymbolic. If a number of individuals toin to act In the direction of betrer 
envlronmencal protecdon and if their influence fn the community strengthens 
their fight, then the result will be significant. The Denvet meeting was 
foilowed by an open foium In which the ideas and condusioni of the small, 
restrtcied zrkceting were shared with a large dudrence of the general pub]ic. 
Similar meedngs are being pbnned mltully m ;apjn . ^nd In other countrleSn 
and simllai approaches ate being taken by other bodies and sometimes even 
by govcmmcniSr 

In a diffet-cntaKi, that of development, we undeiswrcd^ the idc of lc»cal 

mjiL^iLvri In the development ptoce^s, often taken by non governmental 
organizations, groups ofvlUagcrs. and the like, in solving piablems relating to 



1. Secreor^-Cenenl of ihcUiuicd HiDonConlerciKf on EnvVDfimeniand Devdopmcnir 
member of the club ol Rome 

2. Sre ChjptQ 7, DcveiopmcnE Jitd UndcEde^LcipinerH- 



Copy^i9hted material 



Ir^rttinjf our Way into a Nm' Em • J57 

hmilng, health and hygiene, cducaiicm, ^nd so on. Such aolvidcs arc also 
spic-ading in ihe bLg citv slums and these ^rc contiibuimg to inodifvmg the 
concepiujl basis jnd the global vision of developmen[ pqli^tC^, (h^( d'C ihc 
rcncctionor thcmuluplicilyof ^cogi^phLC.cijItunl jnd humjn SLtudtions tot 
which ihey have piovidcd the realliv of experience rn the field. 

The Club d Rome, in diweminating ik vie*< ifvA ehcouraging the 
emergence of global ihmking in local action has encouraged ihe cceauon ai 
National Associations for the Club of FLome. These now exist in about ihitty 
couEltiiesin the live continents. The Asocial lOEks are governed by a comm-m 
charter, some of [he jrtitltt of which insist on the na[urc of the incecaction 
between chc local and global leveh: 

Tach Asscciitian ihaH apptoach the global problems in term^ of the 
muniry'i own cultural values and thus conirtbuw lo the general 
understanding of the human condition on the pknet. 

Ii ^hall have the dLi[y iq duscminate locally to decision mahen, 
academics, industrial circles and the public at large, the reports, findings 
andatccudesof theClub. It shall contribute expen^rce. creative ideas 
and proposals towards the undcisunding of the global problems to the 
Club. 

The National Associations foi the Club of Rome have, therefore, the 
mission of eitablishmg communication between the national rcahties and the 
problcmatique as seen nationally on the one h^nd and the global thinliing of 
[he club on the other, and aaing as rclavi for the circulation ^nd 
dissemination ofCtub thinking In each eountiy Coing ficim global to local and 
from local [o global requires a radical transformation in modes of [hinkrng and 
leasonmg which wlII become essential henceforth. It Is a new intellectual 
eserdse whkh we shall have to extend and integrate. 

Locai-lndivuituU taHnwliun 

The picture would be incomplete :l we did thJt examine the possiblliue^ of 
action of rhc individual hucnjnbcmgiHvhoisat chccenci^ of the entire edi free, 
Inextrcmeca&es. such as the threat of wai or natural disastcis, individuals jre 
imtnediaiely transformed inw ciiiTen?. aware of their responsibilities and 
ready for cohesive action. Other less spectacular bur likewise significant 
exaTTiplcsbcarwimess to the fact that individuals are not inert and indifferent 
inrhetaceof imminent dangers, when [here IS an environmental rhreat close 
at handr or when a situation arises where people's imerests are at srake and 
gyo5i Jn^idnca of explojEaiion dre revealed, we find that ininauvn are [aken m 



Copy^i9hted material 



158 • The Fmr G£iM Btpottttiat 

mostdlucr^ Flckb by Indlviduab, md that small groups arc pt^arcd la fighi 
for causes thai affcci ihcm dIrcciLy or Indirectly, and by whicb they ictl 

To mention bui a few examples, dmspon oi telephone uicn 
orp nmuons, or In a different category. NCOS thj[ care for disabled children, 
□Id people 01 bettered ^ives, KGO& engaged mihc TLglhl against A[D$anda 
host of other diseases or in the snuggle rorhaman rights, ecological groups, 
pciec groups ^nd i multitude oF other devfLoprncntal NGOs sitch as wc have 
presented here. Neither must we target the initiatives lh manyoountrtcs by 
the jobless Co create fmplovment for thcmwlv^s o: to set up thdr own 
bii&ine$s, as wfW as the NCOs (iu[ i^ere founded loas&tH &mah bu^lnesse^ i nd 
to provide them widi technical assistance^ 

Individual commitment to actuni js theiefoic possible and already 
widespread, which demorutrdtcs thit d link cai^ be established between the 
human being and local or naiional acdon, which kn some cases, flourishes, 
cxicixJs and become? inicrnationaL 

Tht rrmerflrfiGc of the irsfbrmal lecTOf 

Tb? success of gtassoofiNCO in idatlves no longer oceds to be demonsiiated. 
Very oft en, the$e movements sie sparked olFbv Individual men and women. 
Examples ifirougfxiiiit the woild are many, in the indian state of Utiar 
Pradesh, the local people have rallied ajound 3 man calTed Sunderlal 
Bahuguna to stop the construction of a USi 1.7 billion dam, which would have 
submerged then villjgf & and sezjously Increased the danger of av^lanche^ in 
the region. Several reports that questioned the technical feasitrthty of the 
pio>cclandinelevcn-dayfas[ by Bihuguna led tJie government to backdown 
on its plans. In Kenya a woman. Wacigati Maaihai — <hc founder and 
president of the grassroots Green Belt Movement and mem be[ of the Club of 
Rome— has Led a sua: c£sful battle to sto-pthfEonsnu^DonoN^iKty [WO floor 
office building in a popular Naliobi public park, [n Mexico City, wbeieihc 
problem of pollution ha? gone far beyond bonWe limits, Mjtcos Chan 
fiodrlguez m.obillzed Ills neigh bourhoc-d [D form a grassroots group to reduce 
thcopcratLomofacemcnt factory that was pouring cement paftidci into the 
air. In the process, the group realized that to arouse the ruling party's Interest, 
it h>d to appeal to the leh-wlng opposition^ and thus make the democritk: 
system woik. 

The enormous proliferation of KCOs can be 5«n In every sector of naOonal 

and in[enaiional activity; ^ome are xtricdy professional, others represent 
special interests; tfiey may be single issue group, oi may deal with general 
concerns; they may have a religious ocienlation. or be based or a particular 



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160 • The Fmt GJiM RtPotiUKm 

nidde even on moa of ihc largoc scale through muldplf jctions on a 
huaU scale. 

htnovati'm ti lan^ua^. an^yxu ami Appvadi 

In 60 many elcmcnn of thks gbbal icvoiuOon wc lack knoivlcdgc . and dicce \i 
noguaranire that more research will ludlogrutfr certainty, 0[[ha[ll will 
yield IQ results Jn dm e for iheinio influence importdiitdmstons. Further, we 
knowalnaboui&omccJcmcnB. bmwcuniiL:mdndvciylia]r. Wf luvcto 
learn, ihcrefoie, to an In spite of continuing uncertaJncy, Politics has always 
been the ui of making decisions under condllJons of uncertainty. The 
difference today is that the uncertainty is much more and is compounded uirlth 
tapld change This abldknguncertamtydcm^Etd^addptjclon of our institutions 
and approaches m order to achieve grcaw:i ilcxibiliiy and a gicac capacity for 
action as we train our sights on the moving targets of hisrory. 

A cential challertge in this connection is how to reconcile d^ language and 
concepts of economics that dominate the world today with environmental 
language and conceptSr Two approaches are possible: environmental aspects 
can be jddcd to conventional economic analysis, or economic Approaches can 
be integrated withm a broader ecological view. Great care and precise 
thinking are needed in this area, in which distlnalon must be made between 
different types of economics: macrwconofnia, microecorvimlci. dnd 
environmental or ecological economics. We must find ways of integrating 
envirtRimcntal aspects more effectively with dK established and powerful 
approaches of both macro-anxJ miaoeconomicSr 

The role of the market and its relatson to the role of the govcinment Ij of 
vital imparlance in seeking to resolve and manage the environmental 
problems. No solutions based exclusively on the market emst m the real 
world. All Western countries, for example, have devclcipcd mixed 
economics in which governments provide a ftamewotk of regulations. 
Incentives, support and guidelines to the private sector It has been 
acknowledged that the market approach alone cinnot h^die probLi^ms of 
common property resources or issues of long-term common interest- The 
government must pcovide the boundary condltlona tn the publk interest. 

The problems we face are not only intellectual and analytical; leal interests 
and the structure of power are always at stake. In the real world, connadlctory 
jntrTcrrs arc inevlaWy optnctng. Ln establijhmg a notmaOve approach, 
oclLniCf: ariangements for action have to be e^ijbli^hed between power 
groups and indeed between lutions, which will continue to have distent 
interests, values, norms and cultural iridirlons. 



Auteu^srec^ltelijk beschermd maleriaal 



In 1972. the Glut) of Rome published The Limits to Grffwit). a book 
Ihal aroused a wonowiOe conlroversy by highlighling the clangers 
possd by the relentless pursuit o^ material gro^Th by the West. In 
The First Globali^6votulion.t«o members oHhe Council oi\.heC\ub 
ot Rome describe how material growth and over-consumption hai/e 
now become a global problem. Environm^tal pollution, runaway 
population growth, food and energy shortages, and geopolitical 
upheavaJs make the future prospects oE the world sesm very bleak. 

Whal we are witnessing today is the emergence ot the post- 
industrraf society, and the tumultous changes around us are 

elements of this transitional phase Poised on the Dnnl< ola social 
revolutic^n ushered in by modern inrormetion technology, the world 
has two choices: 

■ to continue pursuing material goals and selfish aims, and thereby 
cause the stow but sure decline of all worid Byslems: 

« to un»te and work towards building an improved Me tor future 
generations. 

This book offers an overall parspediva ot tha complex and 

interactive global problems, and dlscus^e^ means oi solving them 
compreriensivelVr 



Cover design' Monica Gandhi 



Foi sale in India, Neosl, SMuian, trm 
Maldive Islands, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only. 




Orient Longman 

KirJG a SCHNEIDER THE FIRST GLOBAL REVOLUTION 
OLBN0001ieCl32X " , 

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



162 • The First CtoM Revahttiait 

Thcwholcofthlsbooi^Ls jcalf for world solldarttr. Lfvlng is we do during ibc 
onset ol ihc fjisi gbbil revolution or i small piarti beset wuh conflicts which 
wc Kcm beU'bcm on destroying, in jn ideological and poliQcaJ vdcuiun, 
bctdwldi problems -of globdLdtmemions svhlch the bdlngnatton-sOCeurc 
unable to solve, widi Immense po&sjbidtLcs foi the impiovemeiit oi the 
hunun condlrion, Tlch ia knowledge but pooi fa wisdom, we soich for the 
keys to survival and ^ustain^bilUy. 

The only hope seems to lie In combtoed action laken In the light of 2 
cofupletc understanding of the Impending pctllj and the commtsukcp of 
wlf-imerest of jil men ind women. We hiw stressed the tmportancf of 
Individual bchavloui and values which constitute die ceJs of the body of 
sQci-eTy, derrtmi^nrng iti funcuoning and values, A fundamet^l upsurge of 
wisdom can probably only come through rhf inner development of the 
Irtdlvldual. The great rejjgioni in their purest aspirations have attempted to 
make ihH possible over die aga, with few outward signs of success. 

Wc cannot, thdeforc, expect miracles and have to comtrucl a posiDon of 
subiliEv. Thij can only be based o-n die i^orldwide cultivation of an 
enUghtened tniere&c In (he survival of the race and of human sodeQes. This, in 
turn, can only be nude posi Ible by the uni vei^a] luidersQodmg ofrhe human 
predlcamem, Its dangers and its promises. 



hlarklnd may hate to chacw bietwwn ihe VittJi «xtr?rn« ali^mailves o^ 
^oininlnliiBBenocldPor learning to live hencttontiu a single bmily. 

Arnold Toynbee 



For the creillon of rhU ulldaTity, out ttology and our egoJsm can be 
powerful jlHes. For most people. cbeJi egoism Is noE confined to the 
individual lifespan, biic cxrcrbd^ ro thai of theli childteii and grandchildren 
viith whose being they idenCiiy. It sfiould be possible therefore to sdlVtf, 
selfishly If you will, 10 cceace circumstances whrch w[\\ make possible a 
digrLfiedandtnilyhuman existence for future generations Such in effort will 
ennil many macetla] sacrifices on the part of the prevent gcnejaOon, but it 
should j[so bring abounding benefit; in the qualitatrve aspects oflife- If we are 
to suaccd Id esiablLshing wocld solid^my as the suprcoic ethic toi suivlViJp 
the fitsc step Is in atoustng im<lers'j[Kling^ 



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Missing page 



filDLtOCRAPHY 

A.[ ES EC lAssociaUon InKmaHonak dcs Eludlants en SctaK« 

CmEiomiquef et ComnKTclalfs) Kffarln]nltniaUiini!Cieit^j{^. ¥,thi. AtESEC- 

Canany. 1^1. 
Boikin. [.'V Elmandira. M^ and Mslkiza. M.'V Ni UnDtel^nung. i^rgarxm 

Piess. Oxford. WTO- 
Brown, Ifslfr R, StfA rf Ctoi|c, Pnrgtr Publishers, New York, 1070. 
Cdruxis, EUchcl, Sinir Sprxflp Hamllujn. LofKton. \96i. 
Chcsiutt. Jon Claude, Tim M-jndt, Ecoriomlca, Paris- 19S7. 
Dogin, Klatiel dnd K^aidj John D . T^ Mftnpabi Em: A W«rU >f QmirCJUa, 

Sigc. Newbury Pwk ICA). I5a&. 
Forrester, jiy W/' linfumill Diiumia, MIT Press, Cambridge, (MA), 1Q6L 
Forrester. |ay W , lli*fln D^hmI^^ MIT Presi. Cambrldptf (MA), lOrt. 
Cabor, Dennis, et jI, Bfifond lt\r Agf sf Wslf, Pergarnon Press. Oxford. WS.' 
Glesbert, Fianz Olivier, it PFfuiif«J, Siiull, Puis, IMO. 
lEUlitui francats dcs relations Internationales. RAMSES [^sppt\!\ Annuel fAaniiia ur 

If S|tl£w Etfiimiifiuf I ki Slnil^}, ed. by Thkeiry de MantbrlilH Dunodn P3t\i. 

1090. 
King, Ak«ndci"\ TAr SUtr *f [fe PiflwJ. Pcigamon Prc», Oxford , Ml, 
Lesourne, |Kques", la S|dfliu Am DflUn, IXmod, Pitis. 1975. 
Meadows, Dot>clld H., Mc^ows, Dennis L.**, Rinders, |orgcn |r, Behreils. 

William W. Ill, Ttu Umiti it CrauUi, Universe Books, New York, 1P7?.' 
Petxrei, Aurelio", Tlv Clioni AlvoJ, MdcMllldn, New York, 1Q79. 
Pesrel, Eduard", Bnr'xc^rlvUiiulibGTwffi. Universe Books, New York. 19W 
Schatf. Adam" and E-ricdrichs. Cuniher. MicntkajWii onl Stckl^. Pergamon 

Press, Oxford. IMJ.' 

Schneider, Bf rtrand", TJif BanfiwI RmjfuNdir. IT Publication, Londoi, IQSS.^ 
SchunucberrE.F,,Sni^hBrduiJ/irr F^imcmjnan/raipJrMd'Jerd, Blond ai^Brlggs, 

London. W7*; Harper Collins, New York. 197J. 
United Nations industilal Development Organisatbon/lnsiltuie of Ertetgy, 

Rcpnl in WflfCfwp on Bumflw TfifnrflJ Pmc^Bf PrtTHtt^ Eur, Ing, Bijan LockCy 

Cadogan Consultants, London. IP^r 
University of Tokyo Gkibal Environ nvntal Study Ljboraiotf and 

Mas^jchiu&ets InsDlulcofTcchnaTopyCcmcrfoi-T-ncrgy Policy Research. 

^6]k^MtiA^\0(^\n2h I9W, Wj^fijrijWii, D.C)- Wood, Divld 0„ and 
Kaya, Yokhl, ^eds.). M.I.T., Cambridge, IWI. 
World Commission cm Environment and Development, Th BnrFidJknit Rfpriri, 

OHrCmmwN Fulurf, 0>![wd UnlveRdty Press. Lortdon, M7. 

'Tjfvi i4 rii aitf< (f !tMt "MrmJyr if [if Clufr ti Spiv 



Aufeursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal 



Index 



AcrpmrftTiOH of Laus. set 

PoiluUon 
Acddil i bjfis \ai. IdlET- 
Adi Slunlurjchjryar 54 
nbta 

*grlcul(uri^ dcvcTDpTKnf In. » 

dcbf Xrvlcing burden o(. JO 

jution Qibn in, h 

nrvolutions in, iO 
Aged, arc for tktc. lU 

jgricuiiuFj] devfbpfrrml. 119 
jnd toiJ CDaidluoiH. -U 
pffffct of droiLghrs. W 
incicase In Food producticpn. M 
^hoFthll in Icod^JiFU 10, SO 
use of fheriKj] ffcfjtoen, H 
»jifE iviilibtlit^. ^. 40-1, 
14 tht Cicci] Rrvokuon 

AIDS (Acquiied Immuflv dctxioicj' 

Syndromv), ^1 
AIuIj. oil ipill bi, n 
AlgcTlan rcvdudot^ In, BO 
'ATTKTlcan dicim', ?nd of. 69 
AmiK^y InLciEutKiiul, 66, 
Anccuiji vjlufi, lu Viluo 
ArgendiUr ktukbcfdum c^, 20 
Armjmena 

ipd pollncaJ powci. 2* 



devf fopmart of . wTrrromm 

untuEhorisffi uln of. ll 
V lb Defence eipendicure 
flifJ Tatun^iTf 
Arms CKpoii. glo^l uplfkante of. 

10.00 
Arms industEv, 

kn developing counmes. It 

and for foimol, ID 

proble-ms of diurnumen, w 

DtMtmjueiiB 
iBource consLimpUOT nj 

niggndons lor irmi Ecductnn, Vlff 

A W^ff/Cia-ICffia 104 



Sahucuna, Swdsl^. l^B 

Senm,? 

Seigei. Galon. K 

Shopal. pc^Eicidc kj)i \n. J}^ M 

BidflHHiJfi. people ol.lOJff 



Copy^i9hted material 



L66 t/jH^ 



Bloo. iradmg and Kidunrul, 
imp]]n.tiijns d(, II U 

Bouwanj, dcvclopmcni oi. 6S 

flrjdv Pljrt. thf , 

ind drvetaping co^ntr^o^ M 
jipdn^s conulbijuan co, IQ 

and promdon of human r^htt, Ti 
Indctucdncii of, W 

Lnduslrijl dcvf loprrifnl of. Vi. 4S 

pjrrKlpjimn in woild tcoEwmy, M 

rtduOkm in dtbt bunltn of, 56 
Btilain, riKibiliudon dunng 

World Wjr II. 70 
Bcown, ElJErijan. bi 
Bcunddand Rfporf. dVr i* 
Biukuia FuD. iO^ 



C/MAKA. Ddn Itaixii. 71 
OnxU. II 
Chad. 15 

CAoBflv". failure or dv. 60 
Change, temance \a. Ulli 
ChcTm^yl. rtutlcar accidcni, JL M 
CFC'i rflecl on ozone Ijvct. ?H 5 
ChlJe 

dcmaiJty :otMed in, / 

miliUFv coup [\9n). J 

poiluve changes in. Ifi 
China 

dmrmamcTir \n, Qt 

large roervei of coal in, M 

pi^Hibt will crushed r M 

Ervoluaan in, K) 

$horug^ ol contumn goad&. 41 : 
Chjpka movpmprl, ihcr I^B 
Churrhkll, SliWJruion, r? 



Cill«r TTunigFinFm oi, IQ 

Civil economy, conver^on lo. W fl 

C limine change , ^iiIhI, 4 

Club of fUnx, K 7 
and f^rr proiect.viii 
and ceductjon tn armA; appnl 
Ibi, M tf; declaraDoci i loss k on. 
*»;Fir«BcportiWJ)of,7-(: 

gbtui local IrKcwaan, rok In, 1^ H 
local knluath'et Bi rural areu, lOT IE 
mcciing in Hjnovei U^)- ^*' 
mrrting LH Tjojnd^ ilQM|.l7 
role in dcvclopmcnl . |56 
hAc in the moluuqur, W'7 
THr ?Jiiiiimci\\ oi Mtfildnd, ^ 
Coal 

polluTlon cauxd by. 2^-6 
roervs of. a 

Cokl war. dxendoftbd9H'0. S^W 
CotkcDve ethKs 

imporurKC of. 152 

□udciri AppToacbs <Or 151-7 
CollnDve nluD v mdii-rdual 

vjIuq, 1^1 «J 
Colli mbja, 

plan lot ccologKil jobiliuitonj 9S 
CcmrniinKWon and dkaloguCr 1^3 
Coirkmunlnn, cdlapKof. I. 60 
Compcntion cpcn. 

3idvjnugri and limltiADoru, lO-Ll 
Conferences piuliEeution of, A5'A 

CcpMumer ucietr, fwuK d, M 
Contemporary problems 

global LJlsparilis. tl 

gjobal n^miif of, M 

irudeqiuir inponir to, 117 ii 
Czechoslovakia 

deiThicrac]r cHablnhcd in. 7 

Sovlei occupalion of- 7 

wididrjwalof SDvlrEDDOpt. 00 



Copyrighted material 



Ifvkx • 167 



Danzh, AhdUt ]U 
Debt 

aitj dcvclopiiig cDuntim, Sa B 

rclKf meiMra, ]1Q l\ 
US deb<3. M 

cHccts d, 36. VJ-i 

ifae [Kfd (o lull, iff Coiiunbu 

dcGjulLcChski. 12 

DcmooipliK thwfla {M ihr 
Monh) 20 1.411 

Drmocracy 

ChuichilJ) cL>Trimciii dbouir T3 
mcngths jEid limiQuaru of , ^1 
dhc pfcfcrrcd idcolij^, 65 

Dcvtlopinj touniTi« 
and drbr. ^6 ft 

binh jnd dcarfi corrtrol m, 65* 
d^v^lopmcni and povcnjj 5J-* 

KonnriT of , ^ H 
cncigr prospcctj, 9T fF 

pamcipnioo in rhc woild ceo 

Ddvkipmmi 

ind povfily. ^ 9p IDL'2 

mub. BO, 101 fl 

nml Ebi new mu^ta in. icn I! 

rcvlsm of urxcgbn in devek<ping 
counnlcs. 10? i 

[ok oJ ihc Club of Rome, Jll fF 

roie of govrrnnicncs and Inter - 
luOocul IntdniOcm, IDO (f 

Kicncc ji>d tcchnolofy for. LHl 

p miderdf vciopmoM, 101 fF 
Deiwfopmeni ^licics. 

M n>sjinabk( ^ opexnK (^rowih, 

Imikqiucleiof. 102 FF 
DlQcrtnr vaLtKS. cocnAcntc of, 1^^ Si 
Dminumcnt 

inirrcdijic f fE«ia ol, 9? 

In USSR jnd Chuu, Ql 

ncgotaUom, <>• 10 



pioblcTiu rdaied to. 10. *0 f! 

lewurccj Er«d istd dicu itiC, W, *♦, 

iiiflBmKRi& for, S^l B 
Dbcord. ngm of, '9 
DupirlD«, globil, ti 

Yi Indumijl wjstn 
[togan, M . iiid SJOidi. \S>.. UK 
DEOUghl^lOM), » 
Dtiigaidr 

eOKDof, IG-l 

rllrniiutiDn of. II 

cmf rgcnce of, W 

moEuy Jjjndcung ict. II 
Dukt of Edinburgh, Prince Pluiip, x 



Eaith. Tk, 

research on IQ rulunt lynora, IM*? 
Ealem Europe. P 

MnvttBQfl 10 i nuii^ Konomj of, K) tl. 

COIF 

coJhpKof CnriTTiJEiiiT nrgintn. L.b^ 

problcnuof nononikd-aiigr, ?9,6l 
shiXQge ol comumer goodi LnrQl-2 

EionDmn change, lO ff. 6* '0 
Ecc^iomK polK}'. Licnimoiv oE^ 4 
Ecaivim^ 

devcbpDig CDunDlei, of.fd ff 

CHtcm Europe. d(, 6S 

Europejn Communiry, of, 55-6 

miliidiv and civil, BQ 

SovLFl Union, oj. 6^ ff 

USA. of. Vff 

world, intern jcionji rTrlsman^ement 

EgoUm, giowih oE, 147 ff 
Elntronkt, tmpxtof. V-t 



Auteursrec Intel i|k beschermd materiaal 



16S •l«dai 



Ehot. T5., D7 

ElKc ' populu ThlHlglH. 151 

Empb)Tncni, pfohknB of- (^ ff 

EwTgy 

ikemitiiT uuica of, ^7, n, 
UCduntuig. OS Q 
COnscrvaHon mcjsiirci, ?1 ff 
frcwn nuckear tldon. W 
from niiclfai fmion. V 
jn human UanucDccu, 9Jl 
pioblcmi d1 ivj^bbll^. W 
lordtrof JucI jncuialaicji, JA 
juggnuons for conicrvaODn, CQlf 

ErvJronrncnl 

palljOon of. 7) B, 9 J 

^iiggcsoons fix pccucoKm d, 99 101 
Envjronmcnul «0[ioni Its. 100 
Equal rlgha, m 

iiHBBty For. 15 < 

pcimjncTil V Currsil. ISO 
Ethiopia, politiul duf^ m. 6^ 
Euiopc 

and dluiiTumdiE, QQ 

Eunonjlism oJ dhnk mlnorlbei, 
IS LD 
turopean ComiminiTy 

ooDiplcda) of ncmonuc uiui/- U 

C^nomy o(. 5i-& 

cAcci oJ polmcjl cKangfi on, ^ 

fbrmjDon oE, 5^ 

leducuon m COr crraisuni, 06 i\ 
Europcm Moncuiy Untm, SS 6 



FrrnllKii. usrof, >« 40 

Fli^ globiL e£vq|i»op. die. 

jjrm of. 1* 

»d die human jiubcsc, SI 2 

dw chill* nfi? flf, lU 
ETiTgfijId. Edwird, vi 
Food Sccuriiy, w Clotjl food 

&fcuriEy 
Foi«ls, dftuuction of. 

ur [kfornuuon. abi ?oliuCHJn 
Foncsln, jif' vUl^S 
Rincflcr'i. Fkra Lavv, ao 
FdssH fLifk 

tomervaOon of, IT 

polluOon caio^ by bumLng of, JS 

Foundation lor liiEcrnauoiLdl Trying 

lFtT),*7 
Funcc. TTobilJzaiioa d. TO 
Fundjmenulum 

ducordanc ugiu of, 79 

rlKQi, 15? SI 
FtwI. vardiy ol, ?6 



GABOff. DEV4HE, Jt- 14& 

CandkU.K (M^hjinijl. 71 
Genetic cnginccnng, il 
Grrnuny 

£«l and West rctJi^KaUoT. I. \1. 

modcrniuuon dI Ejsi Ccnn.~n)i, 2Q 
rpdiicdon of BilOih tioop» In. 00 

Ginben, Frjnr Ohicr. 4 

Gknm, IS 

Global food iccuriEy. U ff 

GlotHJ loul mlerKOon. Iff Club of 



FuLKLAEJa Wai, Tnf , IQ 

Family Ilk. 71. ]^ 

Favclas. pmpk of ihc. 101 H* 



Glob J I prablenu 

nwlFonmental pollution. 11 ff 



Copyrighted material 



/Mbr • 169 



gtrvetnance. 114 H 

soOay. dgn of ducord tn. '4 

aaa of, 25-6 
ImpltaiUni of, K H 
pfcvcnDvc mcsiunH *6 ' 
Cotbocbcv. MtfchiU. 01 

Gdvcnuna. 114 )0 

con^iliy of faclora rdacing id, 74. 

11£ 17 

CQiLfronucjon v^r^u^ conscnHA» 

lH-3* 

iJetiiiiliDn of. [H'lS 
deader ju Ecu. I?» ?9 

iiiip«ijiii?nEi 10. 74 rr 

iiKCmrrcjiCs of, 71 
(nlcniidoiul dimensions of. IJ5 H 
ks[iei And pohcjn, £12 fl, 1JJ ff 
pujblrrTH al, 114-16 
Government ^] 

and ihc rrojkci Ebfccs, IM jt 

proccdurca, 113 tl 

role Jn runl drv^bpfncnl. 10? fT 

Govemon 

qmlmei sought in, Ui 19 

i^ktCicm nf. 129 
'Cri^i Divide-, the. vUff 
'Green pjiTiea', If 
Gi«nhoij«cEfca<dk, 

CJuiffof. '5 *. ^7 

cFfction *ericul[urc. 'o 

f Bra on cliniJic jnd X3 \cveV II 

pfcvoitivt muiurs. 16 
Green Revol jub^. che, 

jnlndla, U14, U 

Jn Moko, TA 

need foi waer and (emluen, 19, 
GrowiJi of human acQvliy, >1 ff 
Gutf War, 1 fF, » 

Implicjtioia of, 1^ J9 



KAVa, Vaoav, ?, 71 
Hcid* of Scjie and Min*flcf». 

Hong Kong, dcvclopmeni i^r 19- *^ 

HiieiliijcdjccJlJ, pre Colofntriar] 
teachli«. 1» 

Humjn acuvny, gmwdi of. fl ff 

Humjn rrj.[jiK, 76 If. 11^ 
thjlleiige, the, 8^ * 
gLobdl sympEomi c^, 76 ft 
impaa orr iht Eaintly, 767 
faoblcmi oE [he ^ouih, 75-7 

Human ughu 

jriiJ Amnaiy Tnif rruQocial . «^ h 
limnaoom Jrtd lucEigths of dx 

[novcmcm foi, '1 
pcnrutiem vdna. 150 

Hungary, 00 

Hygiene and lankabon. 
improv^rmfni In. 16 
prablcms in iluiTLS. 16 1' 



I, fridqje Vrr 01 
iDdefciedncq, uDrbt 
lodb 

aateoL ann in. ?* fF 

Grm Revolution In, LA 19, 41 

Indikscnal developnwnt of. 19, *>, 

6^, 101 
NamuiJj pcolecc b), 10) 
proWeim erf popuknan gtowdi 

II, S) 
IndlYiduib 

and [he human miljlse , 7S ft 
Impact of cuncni changes on, IIJ 
Indlvidjj] vjluoKollcaJvf vjlua.WJ 
LndoTKWi, dfvclopmeni oE. i9 
Indunli] Revfriubon, the. 



Copyrighted material 



170 • InOa 



and aivttonmciiof ponutton. ?2 

and tcchnoiogkal devtlcppmtnc, M 
frtduflnal w«a, difponl oi, ^■^ 
IrtdufDUllzKi naUon 

d(ET»gnpbc change in, ?0-l 

MChipCCT2 

cciDnDRik ^ovnh, wn 

uicof unuincnTs, 10 
[ndtuof nuxiem irmdi In, M 
Inforaul «ttOl, mfl 
InbnniDOD 

and rlMjdcm tcchnolcjy' M 
JTPpjCl on cbidrcn jnd ihc 

youih, 77 E( 
JCdcty. 1. 41 ff 
InnovaEion in bnguagcr. Jiulyxta. 
and jpprchKh. iCO 

In^Tutr for Rfsourcc M^nigf ment, J5 
InCfT^cion 

globdl local, IM^7 

bcal indrvidEul. 1^7 -5t 
inmmatlonjl insdiLiiiDni jnd curj] 

mmigcmcni, 110 B 
InKCnjtiorul Instllurc lev Appljrd 

Sysicms Analym ^IJASA], n 

|D[f mjiionil Putnwship IrwiiDvc 

IIPIJ.W 
Iraq. Invukm of Kuwait. I IT. M 



JjVAH 

jWJUiKc ic dcbicn naUoni, )□ 
ievrJopmcnt af. &S 
Morwm)' of, M-5 
iDuncBl acHvity. 10 



King. Mamn Luther, 7] 
IConn, 7t 

Kuw^l, ItkVBHBJ cf, 3 B, 64 



Lailn America 

jgncukiinl dfVf iDpmtni. 1? 

dcbfburdrn 70. 1« 7 

iclaDoruhip wtch Spahi. 1? 

Inhnologtcal luckwaidiKb. 13 
Lawof dKScuC(mfernHx,64 
XjOitODg. Ebc challenge oE. tH 
Leioumc, [nqun. SS 



Maaihai, Wahcaii, IM 

ZhiaAa, dx. 10 

Malalv. Thcprnmi, 71^ 

dfvfloprnciir of. JO 

pjEDnpjUQn IT wcild economy. » 

MandfU.Kclion. 71 

Market economy, 10 11, 1J4 2^ 

in Eait Europr aihd Soviet Unkm. » 
ind gourmmcnt irguLatlonSr 1?^ 2^ 
and luaiainablc drvddpmsil. H-^ 
llmlDikin] of, 11 

MnveL Andrew. 71 

MiB TDedta. role of. 14] IT 

Mjx t^ccf. Mfflfred.40 

Mead, Maigain, ib- 1 



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ItuUx « 171 



Medudunla, V 

M^Kil Kiencn, bmcfKi of 

idvUKn m, tfiit 
Mexico 

debt burdrn oC, ^A, 

GiMn R^voluDon \n. IS 
industiul and rtonomit deve- 

lopmf nT, *A. M 
pjniLiipdtiLjn m ulhIlI cfDoOiAy. ^'^ 
fcductuci In ddn bunkn, M 
MnKo City, populjtMjn of, 16 

MLcioclmnxila 1. lit AS Q 
and (Ticigy conxrvjUon. W Ff 

Mtddlc EjsI. ihc. 

Gull Wji III. M 03 

MigiJtiotD, brgescjk. 42-1 

Mlhory ODnomy. I> 
Mlnorldes- jw^cning of, LS 6 

MalecLiJjr biology, I. 1% 



Non Pnslifnmton Treaty IWPT), 9^ 
Notih. the, 

aid pcEornuncCp tf 
dftiniDon of. 19-20 
dcmogEdphK change, 20-1,41 J 

resource CQiLiJinpuon in, 1^ 

i^hnalogicij] misoncc lo 
thf South, II 
Nuclc:^ dabuCLon. tk«« of. 4,0 
Nudor ovtgf, futujc o^, ^' 
NTcrere, luBiu, l« ff 



OilCusq 

InipKiondcvckipingcoLiniTia. B 

irpcimnionj tm world etongniy, S 
US policy modi-EKitlons. 7 } 



Naidn 

dedikxim^iingpfacfQm. 16 

tntcEpCAdf iKC d mUon. LI IT, '9 
N-jUJondli^m 

and jwakoiingof mirKiriim, li (f 

dllTcr^ni: jspccn of, 79 ff 
Nilure. rerpcct for. \M 
NazU, rruibjjrariihi jgjinn. 70 
Neih plaguf?. ihc, JfrJ 
NaCi Ol Sou^h tffi ANi. 19. «^. LCU 
NongcMcmmoital activity, mcme 

Non-^vcrnmcncal oi^jnlzadan^, 

and devclnpncnt, KP ff 
imporian^-e of, 14. M f , 151 ff 
pfuLfcratloDof. IStff 



Fau-aoi. Jan. 7 

PiEctitj. jnd prfseni crisii '0 IT 

Fi[|», i^udfru tevoU (n< 71 

FaithiiV'aiJihy. Mrs , ion IndU), 71 

PCKC. icsfpcT fof. 1*0 

Pcctci, AjicJIO, rtl 

Potcl, hSnjoA. «. -w 

Poland, hunun ngha in. 71 

Polices. hjnuniLfi in, 125 

pDlliiiiDn 

oivUDnmciLtjl dmncn, Jl i 
macro polliiiHv, l^■^ 
mcjHirn for coitiol of. J2 
rowjid) an environment Bsr 
iuivlnJ.»4lf 



Copyrighted material 



174 • Index 

Wj-iGBA, Lbch.TI 
Wan. IdcjI, 9 10 

Water dispum, U-9 

Wdlircsuic, effect! of, W 
Wcslcm CDunUJCi 

Eiuikcl ccotiomy and reducuon 

poslDon of women to. 06 J 
Women 

Improved &QCUS of, 66-7 
role Jn iodal devdopnwnl, «7 

World die 

DuundEu^meni. 115 

nuclear chreai, <> 

icpcttij»iQn» oE Qil ami, i 
World [kj|[h Or^niainn I WHO), M 
World Solidarity 

A al\ far. Jb7 

iEfflmjtion^ oL la chapter 4 



rebird) of, 7i) ao. M 



YCUTH, 

fok In ranbig rcvDlunoittp K 



dcvelopmenl of. ^ 



Auteursrechteli|k beschermd materiaal 



In 1972. the Glut) of Rome published The Limits to Grffwit). a book 
Ihal aroused a wonowiOe conlroversy by highlighling the clangers 
possd by the relentless pursuit o^ material gro^Th by the West. In 
The First Globali^6votulion.t«o members oHhe Council oi\.heC\ub 
ot Rome describe how material growth and over-consumption hai/e 
now become a global problem. Environm^tal pollution, runaway 
population growth, food and energy shortages, and geopolitical 
upheavaJs make the future prospects oE the world sesm very bleak. 

Whal we are witnessing today is the emergence ot the post- 
industrraf society, and the tumultous changes around us are 

elements of this transitional phase Poised on the Dnnl< ola social 
revolutic^n ushered in by modern inrormetion technology, the world 
has two choices: 

■ to continue pursuing material goals and selfish aims, and thereby 
cause the stow but sure decline of all worid Byslems: 

« to un»te and work towards building an improved Me tor future 
generations. 

This book offers an overall parspediva ot tha complex and 

interactive global problems, and dlscus^e^ means oi solving them 
compreriensivelVr 



Cover design' Monica Gandhi 



Foi sale in India, Neosl, SMuian, trm 
Maldive Islands, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only. 




Orient Longman 

KirJG a SCHNEIDER THE FIRST GLOBAL REVOLUTION 
OLBN0001ieCl32X " , 

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal