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GERMANY'S ADVANTAGE            125

much inefficiency, and then in ships, of which the
supply will be very short. The process will be very
slow and very costly. Our Overseas Army will have
to be sent back to distant Dominions, and the Army
of our American Allies will have to be ferried back
over the Atlantic. Consequently if Germany is able
to obtain anything like the supply of raw material
that she requires she will be able to get back to
peace business much more quickly than any of her
Anglo-Saxon enemies, and this is an advantage on
her side which it would be unwise to ignore in con-
sidering the bad effects on her after-war activities
of the very questionable methods by which she has
financed and is financing the war.

Since we are indulging in these comparisons, it
may be interesting to consider how our American
Allies are showing in this matter of war finance.
The Times, in its " City Notes " of April 15th,
observed, in connection with the unexpectedly small
amount of the third Liberty Loan, that the reason
why the smaller figure was adopted for the issue was
that it seems quite certain now that the original
estimate for the expenditure in the fiscal year ending
June 3oth next was much too high. This estimate
was 18,775 million dollars. The Times stated that
the realised amount is likely to be hardly more than
12,000 million dollars, of which about 4500 million
dollars will represent loans to Allies, and that the
estimate for the year's largely increased tax revenue
was 3886 million dollars, which now seems likely to
be exceeded by the receipts. If this be so, out of a
total expenditure of 2400 millions, of which 900