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The  Audience 


« 

American  Art  Museums 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 


NATIONAL 

endowment 

forW^the 


Research  Division  Report  #23         A  R  1  S 


The  Audience  for 
American  Art  Museums 


The  Audience  for 
American  Art  Museums 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 


Research  Division  Report  #  23 
National  Endowment  for  the  Arts 


Seven  Locks  Press 
Washington 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums  is  Report  #23  in  a  series  on  matters  of 
interest  to  the  arts  community  commissioned  by  the  Research 
Division  of  the  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts. 


First  printed  1991 
Second  printing  1992 

Library  of  Congress  Cataloging-in-Publication  Data 

Schuster,  J.  Mark  Davidson,  1950- 

The  audience  for  American  art  museums  /  J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 
p.    cm.  —  (Research  Division  report  /  National  Endowment  for 
the  Arts  ;  23) 

Includes  bibliographical  references. 

ISBN  0-929765-00—1 

1.  Art  museums — United  States — Visitors.        I.  Title.  II.  Series: 
Research  Division  report  (National  Endowment  for  the  Arts.  Research 
Division)     ;     23. 
N510.S3     1990 

708.  13— <Ic20  90-20253 

CIP 


Manufactured  in  the  United  States  of  America 

Seven  Locks  Press 
Washington,  D.C. 
1-800-354-5348 


Table  of  Contents 

Introduction:  Who  are  the  Visitors  to  Art  Museums?  1 

Part  I:  The  Demographics  of  Participation  Rates  4 
Comparing  Participation  Rates:  The  Americans 

and  the  Arts  Studies  10 
Comparing  Participation  Rates: 

An  International  Perspective  12 

Participation  Rates  Controlling  for  "Third"  Variables  18 

Part  II:    Socialization  and  Art  Museum  Attendance  27 

Part  III:  Unsatisfied  Demand  and  Barriers  to  Attendance  30 

Unsatisfied  Demand  30 

Barriers  to  Attendance  32 

Part  IV:  Profiles  of  the  Museum  Audience(s)  37 

Conclusion  46 

Notes  47 

Appendix:  Results  from  Three  Logit  Analyses  52 

Acknowledgments  56 

About  the  Author  57 


Introduction:  Who  are  the  Visitors  to  Art  Museums? 

Until  the  mid-nineteenth  century  most  museums  were  founded  around  pri- 
vate collections,  and  access  was  restricted  to  an  audience  selected  by  the 
collector,  though  few  went  to  such  great  lengths  as  Sir  Ashton  Lever  in  1773: 

This  is  to  inform  the  Publick  that  being  tired  out  with  the  insolence 
of  the  common  People,  who  I  have  hitherto  indulged  with  a  sight 
of  my  museum  (at  Alkrington),  I  am  now  come  to  the  resolution 
of  refusing  admittance  to  the  lower  class  except  they  come 
provided  with  a  ticket  from  some  Gentleman  or  Lady  of  my 
acquaintance.  And  I  hereby  authorize  every  friend  of  mine  to  give 
a  ticket  to  any  orderly  Man  to  bring  in  eleven  Persons,  besides 
himself,  whose  behavior  he  must  be  answerable  for,  according  to 
the  directions  he  will  receive  before  they  are  admitted.  They  will 
not  be  admitted  during  the  time  of  Gentlemen  and  Ladies  being  in 
the  Museum.  If  it  happens  to  be  inconvenient  when  they  bring  their 
ticket,  they  must  submit  to  go  back  and  come  some  other  day, 
admittance  in  the  morning  only  from  eight  o'clock  till  twelve.1 

In  the  late  eighteenth  century,  people  who  wished  to  visit  the  British 
Museum  had  to  present  their  credentials  at  the  office  and  await  word, 
sometimes  for  months,  as  to  whether  they  would  receive  an  admission  ticket.2 
And  it  was  not  until  1960  that  the  Barnes  Foundation  in  Philadelphia  was 
forced,  in  exchange  for  its  status  as  a  tax-free  institution,  to  open  its  doors  to 
the  general  public,  though  admissions  were  still  limited  to  400  per  week.3 

In  the  nineteenth  century,  particularly  in  the  United  States,  the  distinction 
between  private  and  public  museums  began  to  fade.  The  motivation  for 
establishing  a  museum  became  not  so  much  the  need  to  house  a  collection 
as  the  desire  to  provide  an  opportunity  for  the  general  edification  of  the 
public. 

In  the  last  decade,  with  the  rise  of  both  public  and  private  nonprofit 
funding  mechanisms  that  take  a  large  part  of  their  mandate  to  be  increasing 
the  breadth  of  exposure  of  Americans  to  the  arts,  overall  attendance  figures 
have  become  increasingly  important  for  two  reasons.  First,  museums  are 
finding  that  carefully  documenting  audience  size  helps  them  to  make  a  more 
persuasive  case  to  government  and  private  funders,  whether  or  not  they 
actually  consider  broadening  the  range  of  their  audience  as  one  of  their 
primary  goals.  Second,  museums  need  the  revenue  that  comes  from  increased 
attendance. 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

At  the  same  time,  more  and  more  museums  are  becoming  concerned  with 
the  fine-grained  detail  of  who  attends  art  museums  and  who  does  not.  For 
these  museums  an  understanding  of  their  audience  is  a  critical  point  of 
departure  for  a  wide  variety  of  management  decisions.  Once  a  museum  has 
a  profile  of  its  audience,  it  can  compare  that  profile  with  other  demographic 
profiles  to  help  answer  a  number  of  interesting  policy  questions.  Some  of  the 
databases  a  museum  might  wish  to  use,  along  with  the  policy  questions  that 
might  be  answered  by  such  comparisons,  are  summarized  on  the  next  page. 
Accordingly,  this  study  constructs  a  series  of  profiles  of  the  American 
audience  for  art  museums  and  galleries,  and  outlines  a  number  of  the 
methodological  issues  that  are  involved  in  constructing  such  profiles. 

There  is  a  longer  tradition  of  audience  studies  among  art  museums  than 
perhaps  among  any  other  type  of  arts  institution.  Evidence  from  a  number  of 
museum  audience  studies,  along  with  studies  from  the  performing  arts,  was 
brought  together  for  the  first  time  in  1977  by  DiMaggio,  Useem  and  Brown.4 
Carefully  aggregating  the  results  of  these  diverse  studies,  DiMaggio  et  al. 
summarized  the  demographic  composition  of  the  public  for  the  arts  in  the 
United  States: 

•  The  audience  for  the  arts  was  more  highly  educated,  was  of  higher 
occupational  status,  and  had  a  higher  income  than  the  population  as 
a  whole. 

•  Women  were  slightly  overrepresented  in  the  arts  audience. 

•  The  median  age  of  the  arts  audience  was  close  to  the  median  age  of 
the  population  at  large  but  varied  widely  from  audience  to  audience. 

•  Minorities  were  present  in  proportions  smaller  than  their  share  of 
relevant  metropolitan  populations. 

And,  with  respect  to  the  public  for  museums: 

•  Museum  visitor  populations  were  somewhat  more  representative 
of  the  American  public  than  were  the  performing  arts  audiences 
surveyed. 

•  The  museum  surveys  found  smaller  proportions  of  professionals  and 
the  well  educated,  and  lower  median  incomes  than  did  studies  of 
performing  arts  audiences. 

•  The  art  museum  visitor  population  was  better  educated,  wealthier, 
older,  and  composed  of  more  professionals  than  visitors  to  history, 
science,  or  other  museums.5 


Audience  Profiles  as  Data  Bases 

for  Answering  Policy  Questions 

Audience  Profiles 

Policy  Questions 

The  profile  of  the  overall  audience  for 

What  portions  of  the  population  is  the 

art  museums  as  reflected  in  SPPA  '85 

museum  serving  as  compared  to 

or  in  similar  studies. 

museums  on  average? 

The  profile  of  the  overall  population 

What  segments  of  the  population  are 

or  of  the  population  in  the  museum's 

underrepresented  in  the  museum's 

local  area. 

audience? 

The  profile  of  the  museum's  target 

Is  the  museum  serving  the  segments 

population. 

of  the  population  to  which  it  has 

targeted  its  activities? 

The  staff's  impression  of  what  the 

How  well  does  the  museum  staff 

museum's  audience  profile  is 

understand  the  composition  of  the 

currently. 

current  audience? 

Is  the  programming  promoted  by  the 

staff  meeting  the  needs  of  the  actual 

audience? 

The  audience  profile  of  other  similar 

How  does  the  museum's  experience 

museums. 

compare  to  that  of  sister  museums? 

Is  the  museum  more  successful  or  less 

successful  than  other  museums  at 

attracting  particular  groups  to  the 

museum? 

The  audience  profile  of  other  nearby 

What  are  the  other  local  educational 

"attractions." 

and  leisure  opportunities  that 

compete  for  the  audience? 

To  what  extent  is  the  museum 

attracting  an  audience  that  is  different 

from  the  audience  attracted  by  others? 

Is  the  museum  competing  for  the 

same  audience? 

Changes  in  the  museum's  audience 

How  has  the  audience  profile 

profile  over  time. 

changed? 

Has  it  changed  because  of  things  that 

the  museum  has  done  differently  or 

because  of  external  factors? 

Has  it  changed  in  ways  in  which  the 

museum  would  like  its  audience  to 

change? 

J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

These  results  were  not  terribly  surprising;  they  reinforced  widely  held 
views  on  the  composition  of  the  arts  audience.  Yet,  because  these  results  are 
based  on  a  wide  variety  of  studies  that  are  not  inherently  comparable,  they 
are,  at  best,  only  suggestive  of  the  audience  profile  of  art  museums.  What 
might  an  extensive,  careful,  cross- sectional  survey  of  the  entire  American 
adult  population  reveal  about  visitors  to  art  museums? 

In  this  study,  the  Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts  (SPPA)  is 
used  to  explore  the  composition  of  the  audience  for  art  museums  and  art 
galleries  in  the  United  States.  Sponsored  by  the  National  Endowment  for  the 
Arts  and  conducted  by  the  U.S.  Bureau  of  the  Census  in  collaboration  with 
the  University  of  Maryland,  the  SPPA  is  the  first  major  attempt  to  collect 
coherent  data  on  arts  attendance  and  participation  across  the  entire  adult 
population  of  the  United  States.  The  SPPA  was  first  undertaken  in  1982  and 
repeated  in  1985.  This  work  relies  on  data  from  the  1985  SPPA,  in  which  a 
probability  sample  of  the  American  adult  population  was  taken  and  13,675 
adults  were  interviewed  between  January  and  June  1985.  Because  of  the  scale 
of  this  survey  and  the  care  with  which  it  was  taken,  its  data  present  an 
important  opportunity  to  explore  a  variety  of  interesting  questions  concern- 
ing the  participation  of  American  adults  in  artistic  activities. 


Part  I:  The  Demographics  of  Participation  Rates 

When  asked  if  they  had  visited  an  art  museum  or  art  gallery  in  the  twelve 
months  preceeding  their  1985  SPPA  interview,  22  percent  of  the  adult 
American  population  said  that  they  had.  Two  out  of  every  nine  adults? 

This  overall  participation  rate  is  a  convenient  base  of  comparison  for 
determining  which  subgroups  of  the  population  are  more  likely  to  be 
museumgoers  and  which  are  less  likely.  Table  1  summarizes  participation 
rates  across  a  variety  of  demographic  variables,  both  in  raw  terms  and  as 
percentages.  The  results  for  these  variables  are  discussed  below. 

Care  must  be  taken  in  interpreting  these  numbers.  First,  the  key  attendance  question  grouped 
art  museums  and  art  galleries  together,  but  there  is  considerable  variation  in  the  use  of  the 
phrase  "art  gallery."  In  some  places  it  refers  only  to  shops  selling  art  works,  in  others  to  "art 
museums."  If  everyone  who  shopped  in  a  gallery  also  attended  a  museum  in  the  preceeding 
year,  then  there  is  likely  to  be  little  bias;  if  not,  there  is  a  bias  whose  aggregate  effect  is 
unknown.  Second,  the  data  are  based  on  recollections  of  activities  over  the  previous  twelve 
months,  recollections  that  might  not  be  entirely  accurate.  While  these  caveats  may  limit 
one's  confidence  in  the  absolute  numbers,  they  do  not  necessarily  affect  relative 
demographic  comparisons. 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


Presenting  the  findings  as  the  raw  number  per  1,000  adults  is  necessary 
because  of  the  fundamental  difference  between  the  size  of  a  percentage  and 
the  size  of  the  population  base  to  which  the  percentage  is  to  be  applied.  A 
small  percentage  applied  to  a  large  base  can  still  represent  a  large  number  of 
people.  For  example,  the  SPPA  data  show  that  while  58  percent  of  attenders 
would  like  to  attend  art  museums  more  often,  only  23  percent  of  non-attenders 
would  like  to  attend.  Yet,  out  of  every  1,000  adults,  307  would  like  to  attend 
more  often  and  179  of  them  — well  over  half — are  currently  non-attenders.6 

Income:  As  income  rises  the  participation  rate  rises,  from  1 1  percent  of 
those  with  incomes  between  $5,000  and  $10,000  to  45  percent  of  those  with 
incomes  greater  than  $50,000.  Thus,  differences  in  income  levels  are  par- 
ticularly helpful  in  explaining  the  relative  likelihood  of  attendance.  Compar- 
ing these  figures  with  those  per  1,000  adults,  however,  reveals  that  although 
the  participation  rate  is  highest  in  the  highest  income  group,  more  than  a  third 
of  the  art  museum  audience  actually  comes  from  the  $25,000-$49,999 
income  group,  the  largest  income  group  in  the  adult  population. 

There  is  one  exception  to  the  general  increase  in  the  probability  of 
attendance  with  increases  in  income:  a  decrease  from  16  percent  to  1 1  percent 
between  the  lowest  and  the  next-lowest  income  categories.  An  important 
component  of  this  seeming  anomaly  is  the  fact  that  adults  who  are  currently 
students  are  disproportionately  in  the  lowest  income  group,  yet  their  atten- 
dance pattern  differs  markedly  from  the  non-students  in  the  same  income 
group.  However,  the  overall  pattern  is  quite  clear:  Adults  who  are  currently 
students  are  much  more  likely  to  be  attenders  than  are  other  adults. 

Education:  Educational  level  is  clearly  correlated  with  participation  rate. 
The  rate  rises  from  a  low  of  4  percent  of  adults  with  a  grade  school  education 
to  a  high  of  55  percent  of  adults  with  some  graduate  school  education,  a 
difference  of  5 1  percentage  points.  This  difference  makes  education  the  most 
important  predictive  variable  in  this  list  of  demographic  variables.  (For 
income,  the  corresponding  difference  is  29  percentage  points.)  However,  the 
raw  figures  in  Table  1  show  that  well  over  half  the  audience  completed  less 
than  a  full  college  education.  Again,  this  is  because  of  the  relative  size  of 
these  groups  in  the  adult  population. 

To  understand  the  full  effect  of  education  on  participation  rates,  separat- 
ing students  from  non-students  is  once  again  important.  While  understand- 
ably there  are  very  few  current  adult  students  in  the  first  three  education 
categories  (grade  school,  some  high  school,  and  high  school  graduate),  there 
are  a  number  who  are  enrolled  in  college,  and  their  participation  rates  are 


Table  1 
Attendance  at  Art  Museums  and  Art  Galleries,  1985 

Question:  During  the  last  12  months,  did  you  visit  an  art  gallery  or  art  museum? 

Per  1,000  Adults 


Overall 

Of  all  adults 


Participation    Number        Number 
Rate  Attending    in  Category 


22% 


219 


1,000 


Income 

Of  adults  whose 
family  income  was 


$4,999  or  less 
$5,000-$9,999 
$10,000-$  14,999 
$!5,000-$24,999 
$25,000-$49,999 
$50,000  or  more 


16% 
11% 
15% 
19% 
28% 
45% 


13 
14 
21 
47 
85 
42 


82 
126 
143 
247 
308 

94 


222 

1,000 

Education 

Of  adults  whose 

Grade  School 

4% 

4 

110 

highest  education 

Some  High  School 

71% 

8 

118 

level  was 

High  School  Grad 

14% 

53 

376 

Some  College 

29% 

60 

203 

Four-year  College  Grad 

45% 

50 

110 

Graduate  School 

55% 

45 

82 

220 

1,000 

Age 

Adults  whose 

18-24  years 

22% 

35 

161 

age  was 

25-34  years 

25% 

61 

238 

35-44  years 

26% 

48 

182 

45-54  years 

23% 

30 

132 

55-64  years 

18% 

24 

130 

65-74  years 

16% 

16 

97 

75+  years 

10% 

6 

220 

59 
1,000 

Gender 

Of  adult 

Female 

23% 

121 

528 

Male 

21% 

99 
220 

472 
1,000 

Race 

Of  adults 

Black 

11% 

12 

108 

White 

23% 

203 

873 

Other 

26% 

5 

220 

19 
1,000 

Urbanization 

Adults  who 

SMSAf  and  in  Central  City 

25% 

69 

271 

lived  in 

SMS  A  but  not  Central  City 

26% 

107 

413 

Area  outside  an  SMS  A 

14% 

44 

316 

220 


1,000 


Table  1  (Continued) 


Per  1,000  Adults 

Participation 

Number 

Number 

Rate 

Attending 

in  Category 

Region 

Of  adults  who 

Northeast 

20% 

42 

209 

lived  in  the 

Midwest 

21% 

53 

252 

South 

19% 

64 

344 

West 

31% 

60 
219 

195 
1,000 

Subregion 

Of  adults  who 

New  England 

24% 

13 

54 

lived  in 

Mid  Atlantic 

19% 

29 

155 

East  Northcentral 

20% 

37 

182 

West  Northcentral 

23% 

16 

70 

South  Atlantic 

19% 

35 

180 

East  Southcentral 

11% 

7 

66 

West  Southcentral 

23% 

23 

98 

Mountain 

28% 

13 

46 

Pacific 

32% 

47 
220 

149 
1,000 

Selected  States* 

Of  adults  who 

California 

32% 

36 

114 

lived  in 

Florida 

20% 

9 

46 

Georgia 

17% 

5 

29 

Illinois 

23% 

11 

48 

Indiana 

23% 

5 

22 

Massachusetts 

25% 

6 

24 

Michigan 

21% 

9 

43 

New  Jersey 

16% 

5 

31 

New  York 

21% 

16 

75 

Ohio 

14% 

7 

50 

Pennsylvania 

14% 

7 

49 

Texas 

26% 

17 

64 

Virginia 

30% 

8 

27 

North  Carolina 

13% 

4 

32 

Selected  Occupations 

Of  adults  whose 

Professional 

49% 

44 

89 

occupation  was 

Managerial 

37% 

32 

85 

classified 

Sales/Clerical 

27% 

64 

240 

Craftsman 

14% 

13 

91 

Operatives 

10% 

7 

73 

Laborers 

10% 

8 

80 

Service  Workers 

16% 

17 

108 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 

Notes:  The  number  who  attended  per  1,000  adults  varies  slightly  across  variables  because 
of  missing  values  and  rounding  errors. 

'SMS A  stands  for  Standard  Metropolitan  Statistical  Area. 

4- 

+These  are  the  only  states  for  which  the  U.S.  Bureau  of  the  Census  has  prepared  separate 
tabulations. 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

quite  high:  38  percent  for  students  with  some  college  education,  37  percent 
for  college  graduates,  and  a  very  high  67  percent  for  students  in  graduate 
school.  (This  last  participation  rate  is  one  of  the  highest  found  in  this  analysis. 
Yet,  with  the  introduction  of  additional  "third"  variables,  it  is  possible  that 
this  participation  rate  would  become  even  higher.)  As  with  income,  once  the 
students  are  separated  out  of  the  adult  population,  the  participation  rates  by 
education  for  non-students  differ  very  little  from  the  overall  distribution  for 
all  adults. 

Age:  Participation  rates  are  roughly  constant  (in  the  low  to  mid- twenty 
percent  range)  until  age  55  when  they  begin  to  tail  off.  The  highest  participa- 
tion rate,  27  percent,  occurs  in  the  35-44  year  bracket,  perhaps  reflecting 
increased  attendance  among  families  with  children. 

Gender:  Women  are  slightly  more  likely  to  attend  than  are  men.  Coupled 
with  the  fact  that  there  are  more  women  in  the  adult  population  than  men, 
this  means  that  among  visitors  to  art  museums,  women  outnumber  men  by  a 
ratio  of  6  to  5. 

Race:  Whites  are  roughly  twice  as  likely  to  have  visited  an  art  museum 
in  the  previous  year  as  African- Americans.  Much  of  this  difference  may  be 
attributed  to  differences  in  education  level  or  income  level.  On  average,  other 
racial  and  ethnic  groups  have  a  participation  rate  that  is  approximately  the 
same  as  that  of  whites. 

Geographic  Distribution:  Adults  who  lived  in  a  Standard  Metropolitan 
Statistical  Area  (SMSA),  a  U.S.  Census  Bureau  designation  used  here  as  a 
rough  indicator  of  urbanization,  had  slightly  higher  than  average  participa- 
tion rates  whether  or  not  they  actually  lived  in  the  SMS  A's  central  city  (e.g., 
Boston  as  opposed  to  one  of  its  suburbs).  Adults  who  lived  outside  an  SMSA 
had  a  participation  rate  that  was  only  two- thirds  of  the  average.  Roughly  half 
of  the  audience  was  made  up  of  individuals  who  lived  in  an  SMSA  but  not 
in  the  central  city. 

An  analysis  of  the  population  by  region  of  the  country  shows  interesting 
variations.7  While  the  participation  rates  for  the  Northeast,  Midwest  and 
South  are  all  roughly  20  percent,  the  rate  in  the  West  is  31  percent.  An 
analysis  by  subregion  shows  that  New  England's  participation  rate  is  some- 
what higher  than  average,  but  that  the  Mountain  and  Pacific  states  have 
considerably  higher  participation  rates. 

High  participation  rates  in  the  West  are  centered  in  the  large  metropolitan 


8 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


areas.  According  to  special  Census  Bureau  tabulations  for  selected  metro- 
politan areas,  the  highest  metropolitan-area  participation  rates  are  all  in  the 
western  states:  41  percent  in  the  San  Francisco  Bay  area,  28  percent  in  the 
Los  Angeles  area,  38  percent  in  other  central  cities  in  SMS  As  in  the  West, 
and  33  percent  outside  of  the  central  cities  in  the  same  SMS  As.  In  addition, 
Boston  has  a  participation  rate  of  26  percent,  Baltimore/Washington,  D.C. 
26  percent,  Chicago  27  percent,  and  cities  in  Texas  3 1  percent. 

The  available  data  for  selected  states  reflect  the  regional  figures  in  certain 
cases  a  32  percent  participation  rate  in  California  and  27  percent  in  Mas- 
sachusetts, for  example.  But  the  data  also  point  out  some  less  expected  results 
in  light  of  the  regional  aggregates:  26  percent  in  Texas  and  31  percent  in 
Virginia.  One  wonders  if  the  high  participation  rate  for  Virginia  is  a  function 
of  the  easy  accessibility  of  the  national  museums  in  Washington,  D.C,  to  the 
bulk  of  Virginia's  urban  population. 

This,  in  turn,  suggests  an  important  possible  explanation  for  the  differ- 
ences in  participation  rates  for  each  of  the  geographic  variables.  Is  the 
variation  in  participation  better  explained  by  the  geographic  distribution  of 
museums  than  by  geographic  differences  in  the  population?  In  other  words, 
to  what  extent  is  attendance  a  function  of  the  supply  of  museums  rather  than 
of  the  demand  for  museums  inherent  in  the  demographics  of  particular 
populations? 

Occupation:  Participation  rates  across  this  variable  range  from  a  low  of 
9  percent  for  operatives  (machine  operators)  to  a  high  of  49  percent  for 
professionals.  Both  the  managerial  and  professional  categories  show  par- 
ticipation rates  well  above  the  overall  average.  But  because  both  categories 
also  have  higher  than  average  incomes  and  education  levels,  looking  at 
occupation  by  itself  may  mask  the  effect  of  these  other  important  variables. 

Up  to  this  point,  this  analysis  of  the  1985  SPPA  data  has  been  a  relatively 
straightforward  one,  based  on  the  demographic  variables  that  are  commonly 
cited  as  important  in  analyzing  audience  participation  in  the  arts  and  across 
which  significant  differences  in  participation  rates  are,  in  fact,  observed.  But 
this  group  of  variables  has  a  very  interesting  common  property:  they  are  all 
variables  over  which  neither  the  individual  museum  nor  any  arts  funding 
agency  has  any  influence  (except,  perhaps,  by  actually  moving  the  museum). 

It  is  difficult,  for  example,  to  imagine  the  museum  that  would  be  in  a 
position  to  increase  the  level  of  formal  education  or  income  of  its  potential 
audience  in  order  to  increase  the  local  participation  rate.  We  are  left  with  the 
impression  that  potential  visitors  are  prisoners  of  their  own  demographics  or 


that  museums  are  prisoners  of  the  demographics  of  their  potential  local 
audiences.  While  this  may  in  a  sense  be  true  in  the  aggregate,  it  does  not  help 
the  individual  decisions  made  by  potential  visitors  in  choosing  whether  or 
not  to  attend  a  museum. 

To  be  sure,  a  demographic  analysis  will  help  to  document  that  the 
audience  is  much  larger  than  had  been  hoped  or  smaller  than  had  been  feared, 
or  that  particular  segments  of  the  population  are  not  being  reached  as  much 
as  the  museum  might  like.  But  its  usefulness  in  suggesting  how  a  museum 
can  go  about  changing  its  audience  demographics  is  limited.  It  can  indicate 
if  the  overall  demographics  of  the  audience  have  changed  over  time,  but 
attributing  those  changes  to  specific  interventions  is  difficult.  Change  in 
audience  composition  is  a  slow,  resistant  process.  A  demographic  analysis 
of  the  audience  is  descriptive  rather  than  prescriptive,  and  one  should  resist 
the  temptation  to  conclude  that  one  knows  more  than  one  actually  does  about 
audience  behavior  and  motivations  when  armed  with  these  demographic 
results. 

Comparing  Participation  Rates: 
The  Americans  and  the  Arts  Studies 

In  1973,  1975,  1980,  1984,  and  1987  the  National  Research  Center  of 
the  Arts,  an  affiliate  of  Louis  Harris  and  Associates,  conducted  the  Americans 
and  the  Arts  studies.8  These  studies  have  received  much  visibility  within  the 
arts  advocacy  community,  particularly  for  their  high  estimates  of  attendance 
at,  and  support  for,  artistic  activities.  How  do  their  results  compare  with  those 
from  the  SPPA? 

Table  2  presents  a  comparison  of  the  key  participation  rates  calculated 
in  the  1985  SPPA  and  the  1984  Harris  study.  Harris  reports  an  overall  art 
museum  participation  rate  of  58  percent,  just  slightly  more  than  five  adults 
in  nine,  which  is  two  and  a  half  times  the  1985  SPPA  participation  rate.  Art 
museums  and  the  theatre  are  the  two  sectors  that  show  the  greatest  dis- 
crepancy between  studies:  36  percentage  points  in  the  case  of  museums  (a 
58  percent  participation  rate  in  Harris  versus  22  percent  in  the  SPPA)  and 
37  percentage  points  for  theatre  (a  60  percent  participation  rate  in  Harris 
versus  23  percent  in  the  SPPA).  Moreover,  when  the  two  studies'  participa- 
tion rates  are  compared  for  each  separate  educational  level,  the  discrepan- 
cies are  very  large  at  each  level  (27%  v.  4%  at  the  lowest  reported  levels). 
What  accounts  for  these  large  discrepancies? 

John  P.  Robinson  and  his  colleagues  have  carefully  compared  SPPA 


10 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

results  with  the  Harris  figures.9  They  point  to  several  factors  that  help  to 
explain  part  of  the  difference: 

•  The  placement  and  wording  of  the  questions,  in  the  Harris  survey  in 
particular,  may  tempt  respondents  to  give  artificially  high  responses 
so  they  will  not  appear  to  be  "uncultured." 

•  In  presenting  aggregate  figures,  the  Harris  underweights  the  lowest 
educational  groups  in  proportion  to  their  true  weight  in  the  population. 

•  Harris'  use  of  telephone  interviews  with  quota  sampling  and  a  lower 
response  rate  than  the  Bureau  of  the  Census  achieved  in  SPPA 
combine  to  suggest  that  there  may  have  been  selection  biases  that  led 
to  respondents  who  were  simply  more  likely  to  be  attenders  than  a 
random  cross-section  of  the  population. 

From  a  technical  standpoint  the  SPPA  studies  are  considerably  more 
defensible,  and,  therefore,  their  results  are  to  be  taken  more  seriously.  More- 
over, it  would  be  a  mistake  to  focus  too  much  on  technique  and  lose  sight  of 
common  sense.  Before  the  Americans  and  the  Arts  series  began,  the  art 
museum  world  dared  not  hope  that  it  would  one  day  discover  it  was  already 
reaching  a  substantial  proportion  of  the  adult  population  each  year.  When  the 
Harris  studies  suggested  this  possibility,  the  results  were  first  treated  with 
gratified  astonishment  and  then  were  gradually  incorporated  into  the  estab- 
lished canon  of  arts  policy  "knowledge."  The  SPPA  data  indicate  that  the 
initial  skepticism  had  a  lot  more  truth  in  it  than  arts  advocates  eventually  came 
to  believe.  The  58-percent  participation  rate  is  simply  too  high. 

Comparing  Participation  Rates: 
An  International  Perspective 

Americans  seem  to  have  the  view  that  attendance  at  artistic  events  is 
much  more  ingrained  in  the  culture  of  other  countries,  particularly  in  Western 
Europe,  than  it  is  in  the  United  States.  How  do  American  art  museum 
participation  rates  compare  to  those  in  other  countries? 

Although  cross-national  comparison  in  arts  policy  is  plagued  by  the  wide 
variation  in  definitions  and  approaches  across  both  countries  and  cultures,10 
the  variation  in  what  is  considered  to  be  an  art  museum  or  an  art  gallery  is 
much  smaller  than  similar  variations  might  be  within  other  artistic  sectors. 
Even  so,  important  differences  in  both  surveying  procedures  and  definitions 
of  key  demographic  categories  must  be  taken  into  account. 

Table  3  compares  participation  rates  from  audience  studies  in  Great 
Britain,  France,  Sweden,  and  the  Canadian  province  of  Quebec  to  the  results 


11 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 


Table  2 

A  Comparison  of  Participation  Rates 

1985  SPPA  and  1984  Harris 


1985  SPPA 


Question:  During  the  last  12  months  did 
you  visit  an  art  gallery  or  an  art 
museum? 


Overall 


22% 


1984  Harris 


Question:  How  many  times,  if  any, 
did  you  visit  art  museums  that  exhibit 
paintings,  drawings,  sculpture,  etc., 
during  the  past  12  months? 


58% 


Overall 


Income 


Income 


$4,999  or  less 

16% 

43% 

$7,500  or  less 

$5,000-49,999 

11% 

53% 

$7,501^$15,000 

$10,000-$14,999    ■ 

15% 

58% 

$15,001-$25,000 

$15,000-$24,999 

19% 

62% 

$25,001-$35,000 

$25,000-$49,999 

28% 

67% 

$35,001-$50,000 

$50,000  or  more 

45% 

76% 

$50,001  or  more 

Education 

Education 

Grade  School 

4% 

27% 

Eighth  Grade 

Some  High  School 

11% 

High  School  Grad 

14% 

46% 

High  School  Grad 

Some  College 

29% 

70% 

Some  College 

Four-year  College  Grad 

45% 

78% 

College  Grad 

Graduate  School 

55% 

Age 

Age 

18-24  years 

22% 

66% 

18-29  years 

25-34  years 

25% 

35-44  years 

27% 

62% 

30-49  years 

45-54  years 

23% 

55-64  years 

18% 

53% 

50-64  years 

65-74  years 

16% 

46% 

65+  years 

75+  years 

10% 

Gender 

Gender 

Female 

23% 

57% 

Female 

Male 

21% 

60% 

Male 

Race 

50% 

Race 

Black 

11% 

Black 

White 

23% 

59% 

White 

Other 

25% 

64% 

Hispanic 

12 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


Table  2  (Continued) 


Urbanization 


Size  of  Place 


SMSA  Central  City 
SMSA  not  Central  City 
Outside  SMSA 


25% 
26% 
14% 


66% 
58% 
49% 


Cities 

Suburbs 

Town/Rural 


Sources:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985.  National  Research  Center  of 
the  Arts,  Americans  and  the  Arts,  1984. 


from  the  1985  SPPA.11  This  comparison  shows  very  similar  overall  participa- 
tion rates  among  these  countries,  with  the  exception  of  Sweden  where 
participation  is  slightly  higher:  in  the  United  States,  22  percent  for  art 
museums  and  art  galleries;  in  Great  Britain,  29  percent  for  all  museums  and 
19  percent  for  art  exhibitions;  in  France,  30  percent  for  all  museums  (net  of 
historic  monuments)  and  21  percent  for  temporary  art  exhibitions;  and  in 
Quebec,  23  percent  for  art  museums  and  17  percent  for  other  museums.  In 
Sweden,  on  the  other  hand,  the  participation  rate  is  31  percent.  All  of  these 
participation  rates  were  measured  with  respect  to  attendance  in  the  preceed- 
ing  twelve  months.  Where  the  participation  rate  is  somewhat  higher,  it 
appears  that  the  difference  can  be  attributed  to  the  broader  range  of  museums 
included  in  the  surveys. 

The  similarities  across  these  studies  are  not  limited  to  overall  participa- 
tion rates.  With  the  exception  of  some  higher  participation  rates  in  the 
Swedish  study,  when  the  participation  rates  are  disaggregated  over  various 
demographic  variables  they  remain  remarkably  similar  across  the  other 
studies.  This  is  particularly  true  when  differences  as  to  which  museums  are 
being  considered  are  taken  into  account. 

In  many  respects  the  French  study  most  resembles  the  SPPA  surveys;  it 
was  commissioned  to  document  the  participation  of  the  French  population 
in  a  wide  variety  of  leisure  and  artistic  activities.  The  British  survey  is  more 
akin  to  the  Harris  surveys,  concerning  itself  with  attitudes  towards  public 
funding  of  the  arts  and  correlating  those  opinions  with  participation  rates  and 
demographic  factors.  (Because  of  this  emphasis,  the  British  study  includes 
several  variables  that  are  not  available  in  other  studies  indicating,  perhaps, 
the  relative  politicization  of  arts  policy  questions  in  Great  Britain:  trade  union 
membership,  voting  intention  by  political  party,  support  for  or  opposition  to 
public  funding  of  various  art  forms,  and  whether  or  not  the  respondent  had 
heard  of  the  Arts  Council  of  Great  Britain.)12 


13 


Table  3-A 

A  Cross-National  Comparison  of  Participation  Rates: 

The  United  States  and  Great  Britain 


United  States  -— 1985  SPPA 

Question:  During  the  last  12  months  did 
you  visit  an  art  gallery  or  an  art 
museum? 


Great  Britain  — 1981  MORI 

Question:  On  another  subject,  which  of 
these  have  you  personally  been  to  in  the 
past  12  months?  museum? 


Overall 


Age 


18-24  years 
25-34  years 
35-44  years 
45-54  years 
55-64  years 
65-74  years 
75+  years 

Gender 


Female 
Male 

Occupation 


Museum 

Art  Exhibition 

Participation 

Participation 

Participation 

Rate 

Rate 

Rate 

22% 

29% 

19% 

Overall 
Age 

22% 

21% 

17% 

18-24  years 

25% 

34% 

17% 

25-34  years 

27% 

35% 

21% 

35-49  years 

23% 

18% 

29% 

20% 

50-64  years 

16% 

20% 

18% 

65+  years 

10% 

23% 
21% 


27% 
31% 


18% 
20% 


Gender 


Female 
Male 


Class 


Professional 

49%   ' 

44% 

37% 

Upper 

Middle  Managerial 

37% 

39% 

27% 

Lower  Middle 

Sales/Clerical 

27% 

27% 

15% 

Skilled  Manual 

Craftsman 

14% 

19% 

9% 

Semiskilled  and 

Operatives 

9% 

Unskilled  Manual 

Laborers 

10% 

Service  Workers 

16% 

Subregion 

Region 

New  England 

25% 

16% 

12% 

Scotland 

Mid  Atlantic 

19% 

27% 

14% 

North 

East  Northcentral 

20% 

30% 

19% 

Wales/Midlands 

West  Northcentral 

22% 

32% 

20% 

South 

South  Atlantic 

19% 

34% 

28% 

Southeast 

East  Southcentral 

10% 

West  Southcentral 

23% 

Mountain 

28% 

Pacific 

32% 

Sources:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985.  Market  and  Opinion 
Research  International  survey  (quota  sample  of  973  adults  age  18+  interviewed  at  51 
points  throughout  Great  Britain.  Class  is  of  household  head.)  conducted  for  BBC 
"Panorama,"  26  November  1981. 


14 


Table  3-B 

A  Cross-National  Comparison  of 

Participation  Rates:  France 

France  Pratiques  Culturelles  des  Frangais  '81 
Questions: 


Overall 

Education 

No  Diploma 

Elementary  School  Grad 

Certificate 

Bachelor's  Degree  or  more 

Age 

15-19  years 
20-24  years 
25-39  years 
40-59  years 
60-69  years 
70+  years 

Gender 

Female 
Male 

Socio-Professional  Category 

Agriculture 

Small  Merchant/ Artisan 

Wholesale  and  Industrial 

Professional  and  Managerial 

Middle  Class 

Clerical 

Foreman 

Laborer  or  Service  Worker 

Urbanization 

Rural 

Less  than  20,000  residents 

20,000-100,000  residents 

More  than  100,000  residents 

Paris 

Paris  Region 


1)  Since  December  '80,  have 

2)  Since  December  '80 

you  visited  a  museum? 

have  you  visited  a 

temporary  exhibition  of 

painting  or  sculpture 

Museum 

Exhibition 

Participation 

Participation 

Rate 

Rate 

30% 

21% 

14% 

7% 

21% 

10% 

34% 

25% 

57% 

49% 

40% 

26% 

38% 

27% 

34% 

29% 

28% 

18% 

27% 

15% 

14% 

9% 

30% 

22% 

30% 

21% 

17% 

8% 

32% 

26% 

49% 

33% 

61% 

53% 

53% 

40% 

32% 

28% 

24% 

18% 

20% 

13% 

20% 

13% 

26% 

19% 

28% 

21% 

33% 

23% 

56% 

50% 

47% 

36% 

Source:  Pratiques  Culturelles  des  Frangais,  survey  (stratified  quota  sample  of  3,984 
individuals  age  15  or  over)  conducted  by  ARCmc  for  the  French  Ministry  of  Culture 
(Paris:  Dalloz,  1982). 


15 


Table  3-C 
A  Cross-National  Comparison  of  Participation  Rates: 

Sweden 

Sweden  Kulturstatistik 

Percentage  of  the  population  age  16-74  years  that  visited  a  museum  in  the  previous  12 
months  (1982/83) 


Overall 

Education 

Pre-Secondary 

Secondary 

Post-Secondary 


Age 


16-24  years 
25—44  years 
45-64  years 
65-74  years 

Gender 

Female 
Male 

Socio-Economic  Group 

All  Workers 

Unskilled  and  Semi-Skilled  Workers 

Skilled  Workers 
All  Salaried  Employees 

Junior  Salaried  Employees 

Intermediate  Level  Salaried  Employees 

Senior  Salaried  Employees 
All  Entrepreneurs 

Entrepreneurs  Without  Employees 

Entrepreneurs  With  Employees 
Farmers 

Regions 

Stockholm 

Goteborg  and  Malmo 

Other  Large  Cities  and  Towns 

Other  Southern  and  Central  Sweden 

Northern  Densely  Populated  Areas 

Northern  Sparsely  Populated  Areas 

Source:  Statistics  Sweden,  "Level  of  Living  Survey  1982/83,"  as  reported  in  Official 
Statistics  of  Sweden,  Cultural  Statistics:  Activities,  Economy  and  Cultural  Habits  1980- 
1984  (Stockholm:  Statistics  Sweden,  1987),  p.  340. 


16 


Museums  and 

Art  Exhibitions 

Exhibitions 

and  Art  Galleries 

(Other  than  Art) 

Participation 

Participation 

Rate 

Rate 

31% 

45% 

20% 

32% 

31% 

46% 

61% 

74% 

25% 

51% 

32% 

51% 

35% 

41% 

29% 

29% 

34% 

45% 

28% 

45% 

19% 

34% 

19% 

33% 

20% 

38% 

48% 

59% 

38% 

47% 

49% 

62% 

65% 

75% 

29% 

37% 

32% 

41% 

40% 

47% 

17% 

27% 

41% 

56% 

35% 

53% 

30% 

44% 

26% 

37% 

31% 

45% 

21% 

30% 

Table  3-D 
A  Cross-National  Comparison  of 
Participation  Rates:  Quebec 


Quebec  CROP  '83 


Percentage  of  the  population  having  visited  a  museum  at  least  once  in  1983 

Art  Museum  Other  Museums 

Participation  Participation 

Rate  Rate 

Overall  23%  17% 

Education 

0-7  years 
8-11  years 
12-15  years 
16+  years 

Income  (Canadian  $) 

$10,000  or  less 
$10,000-$19,999 
$20,000-$29,999 
$30,000  or  more 


Age 

15-17  years 
18-24  years 
25-34  years 
35-44  years 
45-54  years 
55+  years 

Gender 

Female 
Male 


Source:  Ministere  des  Affaires  Culturelles  du  Quebec,  ChiffresaL'Appui,  Bulletin  du 
Service  de  la  Recherche  et  de  la  Planification,  Vol.  2,  No.  2,  May  1984,  summary  of  a 
public  opinion  poll  (sample  of  2,316  individuals  age  15  or  over)  conducted  by  the  Centre 
de  Recherche  sur  l'Opinion  Publique  (CROP)  in  1983. 


10% 

7% 

17% 

14% 

28% 

20% 

48% 

29% 

13% 

6% 

24% 

16% 

25% 

17% 

34% 

25% 

26% 

36% 

23% 

18% 

27% 

16% 

29% 

22% 

22% 

15% 

18% 

10% 

24% 

16% 

23% 

18% 

17 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

Both  the  British  and  the  French  surveys  separated  attendance  at  "art 
exhibitions"  or  "temporary  exhibitions  of  painting  or  sculpture"  from  more 
general  attendance  at  museums.  In  order  to  understand  the  stable,  core 
audience  for  art  museums,  it  would  be  necessary  to  identify  and  separate  out 
those  individuals  who  only  attended  because  of  a  particular  exhibition, 
perhaps  a  well- advertised  "blockbuster"  show,  and  do  not  normally  consider 
themselves  part  of  the  museum's  audience.  However,  the  1985  SPPA  data 
do  not  allow  this  distinction  to  be  made. 

While  far  from  conclusive,  all  of  these  reports  taken  together  suggest  that, 
at  least  in  Western  countries,  museums  may  well  be  serving  similar  segments 
of  their  national  populations.  Art  galleries,  art  exhibitions,  and  art  museums 
relate  more  readily  to  certain  individuals  than  to  others  and,  indeed,  are  the 
institutional  creation  of  certain  social  groups.  In  large  part  this  receptivity 
seems  to  be  a  function  of  the  same  demographic  factors.  The  extensive 
Swedish  social  welfare  state,  greater  citizen  involvement  in  communal 
activity,  and  a  higher  educational  level  may  well  explain  the  higher  participa- 
tion rates  in  Sweden. 

This  comparison  does  not  speak,  however,  to  the  relative  frequency  of 
attendance.  It  is  certainly  possible  that  while  the  cross- section  of  the  popula- 
tion being  served  is  quite  similar  across  countries,  the  frequency  of  attend- 
ance might  be  rather  different  in  places  where  "museum  going"  has  become 
more  a  part  of  daily  life.  But  the  Limited  data  we  have  on  this  question  suggest 
that  frequency  of  attendance  is  not  higher  in  these  other  countries.  Against 
the  SPPA  mean  of  3.42  visits  per  visitor  to  art  museums,  for  example,  the 
French  study  reports  a  mean  of  3. 1 13  and  the  Quebec  study  a  mean  of  2. 1 1 .14 
Neither  the  British  nor  the  Swedish  studies  report  any  data  on  frequency  of 
attendance. 


Participation  Rates: 
Controlling  for  "Third"  Variables 

In  order  to  find  better  answers  to  questions  about  the  effect  of  certain 
demographic  variables  (e.g.,  are  the  high  participation  rates  for  upper-income 
groups  a  function  of  that  income  level  or  of  the  fact  that  upper-income 
individuals  also  tend  to  be  more  highly  educated?),  it  is  necessary  to  control 
for  and  separate  out  the  effects  of  other  variables  that  might  confound  the 
results.  This  section  discusses  the  findings  of  two  different  methods  of 
controlling  for  these  other  variables:  multiple  classification  analysis  and  logit 
analysis. 


18 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

Multiple  Classification  Analysis 

Multiple  classification  analysis  (MCA)  is  a  mathematical  method  for 
calculating  the  net  value  of  variables  whose  behavior  one  is  trying  to 
explain — in  this  case  attendance — for  each  value  of  possible  key  explanatory 
variables — such  as  various  levels  of  income  or  education.  MCA  controls  for 
the  contribution  of  other  explanatory  variables — such  as  race  or  marital 
status — by  averaging  out  their  effects.15  Conventionally,  the  variable  whose 
behavior  one  is  trying  to  explain  is  called  the  "dependent"  variable  and  the 
various  explanatory  variables  are  called  the  "independent"  variables. 

In  studying  museum  attendance  patterns,  MCA  estimates  the  addtional 
effect  of  each  independent  variable  on  the  participation  rate.  MCA  then  adds 
(or  subtracts)  this  additional  effect  to  (from)  the  participation  rate  to  create 
an  "adjusted"  participation  rate.  This  adjusted  rate  reflects,  as  much  as  is 
mathematically  possible,  the  pure  effect  of  each  independent  variable  on  the 
participation  rate.  In  this  way,  for  example,  differences  in  the  participation 
rate  that  result  from  differences  in  income  alone  can  be  isolated. 

Table  4  summarizes  the  results  of  a  multiple  classification  analysis  of 
participation  rates  that  considered  five  primary  independent  variables — in- 
come, education,  age,  gender,  and  region — and  four  other  independent 
variables — marital  status,  number  of  children,  race,  and  number  of  hours 
worked  per  week.  The  first  column  reports  the  participation  rates  for  the  main 
independent  variables  when  each  is  considered  by  itself  (prior  to  MCA);  the 
second  column  reports  the  adjusted  participation  rate  for  each  variable  once 
it  has  been  controlled  for  the  other  variables  through  MCA. 

Income:  When  viewed  in  isolation,  income  appeared  to  be  a  useful  pre- 
dictor of  museum  attendance:  participation  rates  ranged  from  1 1  percent  to 
45  percent.  But  when  one  controls  for  the  influence  of  the  other  variables, 
the  adjusted  participation  rate  is  roughly  constant — approximately  20  per- 
cent— over  the  lowest  five  income  groups,  and  finally  jumps  to  32  percent 
in  the  highest  income  group.  This  important  result  indicates  that  it  is  too 
simple  to  say  that  income  is  an  important  predictor  of  museum  attendance; 
it  is  highly  correlated  with  other  variables  that  are  better  predictors,  par- 
ticularly education. 

Education:  After  adjustment,  these  participation  rates  are  slightly  closer 
together  than  before,  ranging  from  7  percent  for  those  with  a  grade  school 
education  to  54  percent  for  those  with  a  graduate  school  education.  But  the 
remaining  47  percentage  point  spread  indicates  that  controlling  for  other 
variables  hardly  diminishes  education's  ability  to  predict  attendance.  This 
result  reinforces  the  importance  of  education  as  the  key  demographic  predic- 
tor of  attendance. 


19 


Table  4 

Comparison  of  Unadjusted  and  Adjusted 

Participation  Rates,  1985 

Question:  During  the  last  12  months  did  you  visit  an  art  gallery  or  an  art  museum? 


Overall 

Income 

$4,999  or  less 
$5,000-$9,999 
$10,000-$  14,999 
$15,000-$24,999 
$25,000-$49,999 
$50,000  or  more 

Education 

Grade  School 
Some  High  School 
High  School  Grad 
Some  College 
Four-year  College  Grad 
Graduate  School 

Age 

18-24  years 
25-34  years 
35^44  years 
45-54  years 
55-64  years 
65-74  years 
75+  years 

Gender 

Female 
Male 

Region 

Northeast 
Midwest 
South 
West 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 

Notes:  *  In  this  example,  multiple  classification  analysis  (MCA)  is  used  to  control  for 
five  main  independent  variables — income,  education,  age,  gender,  and  region — and  four 
other  independent  variables — marital  status,  number  of  children,  race,  and  number  of 
hours  worked  per  week.  Each  adjusted  participation  rate  separates  the  effect  of  one  vari- 
able by  controlling  for  the  effect  of  the  others. 

**  These  rates  differ  slighdy  from  those  in  Table  1  because  missing  values  necessitated 
dropping  more  cases  from  the  analysis. 


20 


Participation 

MCA  Adjusted* 

Rate 

Participation  Rate 

22% 

22% 

16% 

22% 

11% 

19% 

15% 

19% 

19% 

20% 

28% 

24% 

45% 

32% 

4% 

7% 

8%** 

9% 

14% 

15% 

29% 

28% 

45% 

43% 

55% 

54% 

22% 

23% 

26%** 

25% 

27% 

24% 

23% 

21% 

18% 

20% 

17%** 

21% 

10% 

14% 

23% 

24% 

21% 

20% 

21%** 

21% 

21% 

21% 

19% 

21% 

31% 

28% 

The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

Age:  After  adjustment,  the  effect  of  age  on  attendance  nearly  disappears. 
The  adjusted  participation  rates  are  fairly  constant,  from  20  to  25  percent, 
and  they  do  not  fall  off  until  more  than  75  years  of  age  (14  percent). 

Gender:  The  adjusted  ratio  of  female  to  male  participation  rates  is  24:20, 
whereas  it  was  23:21  before  adjustment.  Because  women  live  longer  and  tend 
to  have  lower  educational  levels  than  men,  on  average,  when  the  effects  of 
those  variables  are  removed,  it  becomes  clear  that  women  are  even  more 
likely  to  attend,  although  the  difference  is  not  a  dramatic  one. 

Region:  Table  4  shows  that  before  MCA,  the  West  had  the  nation's 
highest  participation  rate  (31  percent).  But  is  this  high  rate  due  to  inherent 
regional  differences,  or  is  it  due  to  the  fact  that  incomes  are  perhaps  higher 
in  these  states,  or  that  educational  levels  are  higher,  or  that  people  in  the  West, 
on  average,  are  younger?  Controlling  for  the  other  independent  variables 
decreases  the  participation  rate  in  the  West  by  3  percentage  points  (to  28 
percent),  and  raises  the  participation  rate  in  the  South  by  3  percentage  points, 
to  the  level  of  the  Northeast  and  the  Midwest  (21  percent). 

Of  course,  one  cannot  tell  from  these  results  alone  whether  the  remaining 
difference  (7  percentage  points  between  the  West  and  other  regions)  is  due 
to  some  inherent  "regionalness"  or  to  some  other  variable  that  has  not  yet 
been  included  in  the  analysis  (such  as  the  geographic  distribution  of  mu- 
seums). In  this  sense,  the  adjusted  participation  rates  should  not  be  thought 
of  as  the  "correct"  rates,  but  as  an  attempt  to  isolate  the  effect  of  one 
explanatory  variable  in  the  context  of  other,  specified  explanatory  variables. 

The  distinction  between  the  one-variable-at-a-time  demographic  analysis 
in  the  previous  section  and  multiple  classification  analysis  is  a  reflection  of 
the  way  in  which  the  analysis  will  be  used.  The  former  emphasizes  predic- 
tion— what  is  the  probability  that  someone  who  lives  in  the  West  will  be  an 
attender? — while  the  latter  emphasizes  explanation — How  much  does  living 
in  the  West  contribute,  by  itself,  to  the  participation  rate?  How  well  the  MCA 
explains  variation  in  attendance  levels  when  all  independent  variables  are 
used  simultaneously  can  be  measured  with  the  R2  statistic,1"  which  is  .147 
here,  indicating  that  14.7  percent  of  the  variation  in  participation  rates  is 
explained  by  the  independent  variables. 

Logit  Analysis 

While  multiple  classification  analysis  focuses  on  the  average  value  of  the 
dependent  variable  for  each  value  of  each  independent  variable — explaining, 


fR  is  a  "goodness  of  fit"  measure  of  how  well  a  model  predicts  the  variation  in  the  dependent 
variable.  Measured  on  a  scale  of  0  to  1,  the  closer  R2  is  to  1,  the  better  the  fit  (the  better  the 
model  predicts). 


21 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

for  example,  what  the  participation  rate  is  for  high-income  individuals  while 
controlling  for  other  independent  variables — it  is  often  instructive  to  consider 
instead  the  contribution  that  increases  in  each  independent  variable  make  to 
the  dependent  variable.  For  example,  to  determine  the  relationship  between 
age  and  attendance,  it  would  be  useful  to  calculate  how  much  the  participa- 
tion rate  increases  (or  decreases)  on  average  for  every  additional  year  of  age. 

In  measuring  museum  attendance,  the  underlying  dependent  variable  is 
dichotomous:  each  person  interviewed  either  attended  an  art  museum  in  the 
previous  year  or  did  not  attend,  and  the  individual's  attendance  can  be 
expressed  mathematically  with  a  one  (if  he  or  she  did  attend)  or  with  a  zero 
(if  he  or  she  did  not  attend).  To  test  the  mathematical  relationship  between 
this  type  of  dependent  variable  and  a  series  of  independent  variables,  a 
variation  of  regression  analysis,  called  logit  analysis,  is  often  used.  (Logit 
analysis  is  described  further  in  the  Appendix,  where  the  actual  mathematical 
results  of  the  logit  analyses  used  in  this  study  are  reported.)  Logit  analysis 
uses  the  collected  data  on  the  attendance  pattern  of  the  surveyed  individuals 
to  predict  what  the  probability  of  attendance  for  another  individual  with  a 
particular  set  of  characteristics  would  be.16 

Without  delving  into  the  intricate  mathematics  of  logit  analysis,  it  is 
possible  to  present  the  essential  idea  with  a  simple  example.  Consider  two 
variables:  whether  or  not  an  individual  attended  an  art  museum  in  the 
previous  year  and  that  individual '  s  number  of  years  of  education.  Given  what 
we  already  know  about  the  relationship  between  these  two  variables,  we 
expect  that  individuals  with  higher  levels  of  education  are  more  likely  to 
attend.  Suppose  that  a  sample  of  20  individuals  revealed  that  10  of  them  had 
attended  and  that  10  had  not.  Graphing  these  two  variables  for  these  20  cases 
might  lead  to  a  graph  like  Figure  la.  Each  square  in  Figure  la  represents  one 
surveyed  individual  and  plots  the  number  of  years  of  education  versus 
whether  or  not  that  person  attended  an  art  museum  in  the  previous  year. 


Figure  1a. 
Sample  Attendance  Data  Graphed  by  Years  of  Education 


Yes  =  l 
Attendance 

No  =  0 


■      ■ 


6  8  10  12  14  16 

Years  of  Education 


22 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

Using  these  data  as  a  starting  point,  logit  analysis  fits  an  "s- shaped"  curve 
to  the  data.  The  result  would  look  like  Figure  lb.  The  curve  is  a  simplified 
mathematical  summary  of  the  relationship  between  the  two  variables,  and  its 
shape  reflects  the  fact  that  individuals  with  fewer  years  of  education  are  much 
less  likely  to  have  attended  an  art  museum  than  are  individuals  with  more 
years  of  education.  Note  that  the  vertical  axis  of  Figure  lb  is  labelled 
"Probability  of  Attendance."  Thus,  in  this  example,  logit  analysis  is  using 
the  actual  attendance  pattern  in  the  survey  data  to  predict  the  probability  of 
attendance  for  other  individuals  whose  educational  levels  are  known  but 
whose  attendance  patterns  are  unknown.  The  height  of  the  curve  can  be 
interpreted  as  either  the  relative  percentage  of  individuals  at  each  level  of 
education  who  are  predicted  to  attend  or  the  probability  that  an  individual 
with  a  particular  level  of  education  will  attend. 


Figure  1b 
Logit  Curve  Fitted  to  Sample  Attendance  Data 

Yes  =  l  « 

Probability 

of           0.5 
Attendance 

No  =  0  ' 

■                                   ■                                     ■■■■■■! 

i 

i 

!■■■■■■                                  ■                                ■                                            1 

0             2             4             6             8             10           12           14           16           18 

Years  of  Education 

Keeping  this  intuitive  understanding  in  mind,  we  can  now  turn  to  an 
analysis  of  the  actual  data.  The  results  summarized  here  are  from  a  model 
that  predicts  the  probability  of  museum  attendance  as  a  function  of  income 
level,  age,  race,  gender,  educational  level,  whether  the  individual  lives  in  a 
Standard  Metropolitan  Statistical  Area  or  its  central  city  or  outside  a  SMSA, 
and  whether  or  not  the  individual  is  a  student.  (The  actual  mathematical 
results  of  running  this  logit  analysis  are  reported  in  Table  A  of  the  Appendix.) 

It  is  not  necessary  to  understand  the  mathematics  that  lead  to  logit  results 
in  order  to  be  able  to  interpret  the  key  findings.  Logit  results  can  be  used  to 
help  us  answer  three  rather  straightforward  analytical  questions  concerning 
museum  attendance  patterns: 

Is  an  increase  in  each  independent  variable  associated  with  an  in- 
crease or  a  decrease  in  the  participation  rate? 
•     How  strong  is  the  increase  or  decrease  in  each  case?  Is  the  increase 
or  decrease  that  is  detected  in  the  sample  survey  data  strong  enough 


23 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

so  that  one  can  conclude  that  the  same  relationship  holds  for  the  entire 
adult  population  of  the  United  States? 
•     What  do  the  results  tell  us  about  the  probability  of  attendance  for 
particular  individuals  whose  demographic  characteristics  are  known? 

Asking  these  questions  of  the  logit  analysis  reported  in  Table  A  of  the 
Appendix  leads  to  a  number  of  interesting  results.  The  signs  of  six  of  the 
thirteen  independent  variables  are  negative,  indicating  that  there  is  an  inverse 
relationship  between  these  variables  and  the  probability  of  attendance.  The 
negative  coefficient  of  age  indicates  that  as  an  adult  gets  older,  all  else  being 
equal,  his  or  her  probability  of  attendance  goes  down.  The  signs  for  Blacks 
and  other  minority  racial  groups  are  also  negative,  indicating  that  the  prob- 
ability of  attendance  for  these  racial  groups  is  lower  than  the  probability  of 
attendance  for  whites.  But  the  coefficient  for  "other"  minority  racial  groups 
is  not  statistically  significant,  so  the  evidence  is  not  strong  enough  to  be  able 
to  conclude  that  in  the  overall  population  minority  groups  other  than  Blacks 
have  a  probability  of  attendance  that  is  actually  different  from  that  of  whites. 

The  signs  of  the  seven  other  variables  are  positive.  The  positive  coeffi- 
cients for  the  two  highest  income  groups  indicate  that  individuals  in  these 
groups  (incomes  of  $25,000  and  above)  have  a  higher  probability  of  attend- 
ance than  individuals  in  lower  income  groups.  The  coefficient  of  education 
is  also  positive,  indicating  that  for  every  additional  year  of  formal  education, 
the  probability  of  attendance  goes  up.  The  positive  coefficient  of  the  gender 
variable  indicates  that  the  probability  of  attendance  for  women  is  higher  than 
the  probability  for  men.  And  the  positive  coefficients  of  the  geography 
variables  indicate  that  people  who  live  in  Standard  Metropolitan  Statistical 
Areas  (i.e.,  relatively  urbanized  areas)  are  more  likely  to  attend  than  people 
who  live  outside  of  these  areas.  All  of  the  positive  coefficients  are  statistically 
significant,  indicating  that  these  results  would  be  expected  to  be  replicated 
in  the  population  at  large. 

A  summary  measure  of  how  well  the  logit  curve  actually  fits  the  data  is 
R2.  For  this  analysis  R2  =  .16;  sixteen  percent  of  the  variation  in  the 
dependent  variable  is  explained  by  the  independent  variables  in  this  model. 
While  the  R2  statistics  for  both  the  multiple  classification  analysis  and  the 
logit  analysis  seem  low,  it  is  important  to  keep  them  in  mind  as  benchmarks 
against  which  further  analyses  and  other  studies  might  be  judged.  As  our 
ability  to  explain  museum  attendance  improves,  the  predictive  capability  of 
our  models  will  increase.  The  next  section  of  this  study,  for  example,  will 
report  the  results  of  a  better  logit  model  that  includes  variables  that  measure 
the  degree  of  an  individual's  socialization  into  the  arts. 


24 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

Finally,  logit  results  can  be  used  to  predict  the  probability  of  attendance 
for  particular  individuals  whose  characteristics  are  known.  For  example,  the 
probability  of  attendance  for  a  white  female  who  is  40  years  old,  has  16  years 
of  formal  education,  lives  in  the  central  city  of  an  SMSA,  has  an  income 
between  $15,000  and  $24,999,  and  is  not  currently  a  student  is  estimated  at 
52  percent.  The  probability  is  calculated  by  inserting  the  actual  values  of  the 
variables  for  this  sample  individual  into  the  equation  that  results  from  the 
logit  analysis. 

These  results  can  also  be  used  to  graph  the  relationship  between  the 
probability  of  attendance  and  each  of  the  independent  variables.  Figure  2a  is 
a  graph  of  the  relationship  between  probability  of  attendance  and  educational 
level  for  the  sample  female  attender;  it  is  the  result  of  letting  years  of 
education  vary  while  keeping  all  of  the  other  variables  the  same  as  in  the 
example  above.  Overall,  the  graph  shows  the  probability  of  attendance  rising 
dramatically  across  levels  of  education  to  a  high  of  nearly  78  percent,  a 
striking  depiction  of  the  importance  of  education  in  explaining  participation. 
The  specific  example  calculated  above  occurs  on  the  right  hand  side  of  Figure 
2a  at  the  point  where  education  is  equal  to  16  years  and  the  probability  of 
attendance  equals  52  percent. 

Similarly,  Figure  2b  fixes  all  of  the  independent  variables  except  age  to 
their  values  for  the  sample  individual  in  order  to  graph  the  relationship 
between  probability  of  attendance  and  age.  This  graph  shows  that  once  the 
other  independent  variables  have  been  controlled  for,  the  probability  of 
attendance  tends  to  decline  slightly  as  age  increases. 

In  summary,  using  logit  analysis  affords  a  different  view  of  the  data;  it 
focuses  on  the  contribution  that  each  independent  variable  makes  to  the 
probability  of  attendance  and  leads  to  a  precise  measurement  of  that  con- 
tribution. For  most  purposes,  however,  the  most  important  contribution  this 
analysis  makes  to  an  understanding  of  these  relationships  is  what  it  tells  us 
about  the  direction  and  the  strength  of  these  relationships.  And  the  avail- 
ability of  the  SPPA  data  allow  researchers  in  the  field  to  explore  these 
questions  for  the  first  time. 


25 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 


Figure  2a 

Logit  Analysis— Graph  of  the  Probability  of  Attendance 

by  Education  for  Sample  Individual 

l 

0.9 

0.8 

Attendance 

p      p 

8M 

o     0.5 

S     0.4 
£     0.3 

On 

0.2 

0.1 

°0             2             4             6             8            10           12           14           16           18 

Years  of  Education 

0.9 

0.8 

V 

<y 

S 

0.7 

A 

-o 

e 

4> 

0.6 

•t— ' 

< 

o 

0.5 

>> 

■** 

15 

0.4 

« 

A 

o 

1m 

0.3 

e- 

0.2 

0.1 

0 

Figure  2b 

Logit  Analysis— Graph  of  the  Probability  of  Attendance 

by  Age  for  Sample  Individual 


10 


•  •- 


30 


50 


70 


90 


Age 


26 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

Part  II:  Socialization  and  Art  Museum  Attendance 

The  fact  that  the  model  presented  in  Part  I  had  such  a  low  ability  to  predict 
the  probability  of  attendance  suggests  that  there  must  be  factors  in  an 
individual's  background  other  than  simple  demographics  that  help  explain 
attendance  at  art  museums.  One  place  to  look  for  additional  explanatory 
variables  is  to  the  possible  role  played  by  socialization  activities  such  as  art 
lessons. 

This  section  focuses  on  three  SPPA  socialization  questions  that  are  most 
likely  to  be  linked  to  attendance  at  art  museums:  whether  or  not,  and  at  what 
ages,  the  respondent  had  ever  taken  lessons  in  the  visual  arts;  whether  or  not, 
and  at  what  ages,  the  respondent  had  taken  art  appreciation  classes;  and 
whether  or  not,  and  the  frequency  with  which,  parents  had  taken  the  respon- 
dent to  art  museums. 

An  analysis  of  these  questions  reveals  that  all  three  of  these  factors  show 
a  strong  relationship  with  increased  attendance  (Table  5).  The  overall 
attendance  rate  of  22  percent  rises  to  45  percent  for  those  who  had  taken 
visual  arts  lessons.  For  those  who  had  not  taken  these  lessons,  the  participa- 
tion rate  is  only  15  percent.  The  pool  of  visitors  to  art  museums  during  the 
previous  year  is  divided  approximately  in  half  between  those  who  have 
taken  art  lessons  and  those  who  have  not.  Having  taken  a  class  in  art 
appreciation  or  art  history  raises  the  participation  rate  to  51  percent,  but 
among  visitors  the  ratio  of  those  who  had  not  taken  a  class  to  those  who  had 
is  5:4.  Yet,  actual  museum  visitors  are  split  in  half  between  those  who  had 
taken  lessons  and  those  who  had  not. 

Attendance  is  highest  for  those  whose  first  lessons  were  either  during  the 
elementary  school  years  or  during  the  college  years  (62  and  54  percent, 
respectively),  suggesting  that  both  earliness  of  socialization  and  the  indi- 
vidual's explicit  choice  of  a  socialization  experience — as  opposed  to  an 
educational  or  parental  requirement — can  be  important  factors  in  future 
attendance. 

Similarly,  the  influence  of  these  classes  is  smaller  during  the  high  school 
years  (39  percent  participation)  than  in  either  elementary  school  (66  percent) 
or  in  the  years  after  high  school  (57  and  6 1  percent) .  The  figure  of  66  percent 
attendance  for  adults  who  had  taken  an  art  appreciation  course  in  elementary 
school  is  one  of  the  highest  art  museum  participation  rates  found  in  the  SPPA 
data  when  considering  the  effects  of  a  single  independent  variable. 

The  participation  rate  is  55  percent  for  those  who  remembered  having 
attended  art  museums  frequently  with  their  parents.  The  rates  for  those  who 


27 


Table  5 

Socialization  and  Attendance  at  Art  Museums 

and  Art  Galleries,  1985 

Question:  Have  you  ever  taken  lessons  or  a  class  in  visual  arts  such  as  sculpture,  painting, 
print  making, photography,  film  making,  etc.? 


Participation 
rate 

Per  1,000  Adults 

Number 

Number  in 
category 

All  adults 
who  had  taken  lessons 
who  had  not  taken  lessons 

22% 
45% 
15% 

219 
112 
110 

1,000 

248 
752 

Adults  who  first  took 
lessons  at  less  than  12  years 
12-17  years 
18-24  years 
25+  years 

62% 
37% 
54% 
40% 

21 
43 
30 
18 

33 

115 

56 

44 

Adults  who  attended  an  art  museum 

50%  had  taken  lessons 
50%  had  not  taken  lessons 

110 
109 

219 
219 

Adults  who  had  not 
attended  an  art  museum 

18%  had  taken  lessons 
82%  had  not  taken  lessons 

137 
644 

781 
781 

Question:  Have  you  ever  taken  a 

class 

in  art  appreciation  or  art  history? 

All  adults 
who  had  taken  a  class 
who  had  not  taken  a  class 

'  22%  attended 
51%  attended 
15%  attended 

219 
99 

122 

1,000 
194 
806 

Adults  who  first  took  a 
class  at  less  than  12  years 
12-17  years 
18-24  years 
25+  years 

66%  attended 
39%  attended 
57%  attended 
61%  attended 

4 
26 
60 

8 

6 
68 

105 
14 

Adults  who  attended  an  art  museum 

45%  had  taken  a  class 
55%  had  not  taken  a  class 

98 

121 

219 
219 

Adults  who  had  not 
attended  an  art  museum 

12%  had  taken  a  class 
88%  had  not  taken  a  class 

95 
686 

781 
781 

Question:  Did  your  parents — or  other  adult  members  of  the  household — take  you  to  art 
museums  or  galleries  often,  occasionally ,  or  never? 


Adults  who  had  attended 

frequently  with  parents 

55%  attended 

26 

47 

occasionally  with  parents 

35%  attended 

105 

297 

never  attended  with  parents 

14%  attended 

92 

656 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 


28 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

visited  occasionally  with  their  parents  and  those  who  never  visited  with  then- 
parents  are  35  percent  and  14  percent,  respectively. 

A  logit  model  was  run  to  see  what  happens  to  the  probability  of  atten- 
dance participation  rate  when  these  three  socialization  factors  are  accounted 
for  simultaneously,  along  with  the  demographic  variables  considered  earlier. 
The  results  are  reported  in  Table  B  in  the  Appendix.  All  of  the  socialization 
variables,  along  with  education,  turn  out  to  be  highly  significant  statistically. 
Age,  the  race  variable  for  Blacks,  and  the  highest  income  group  variable  also 
have  coefficients  that  are  statistically  significant. 

All  of  the  socialization  variables  add  considerably  to  the  probability  of 
attendance.  This  can  be  most  clearly  seen  using  a  graph  like  the  one  presented 
earlier.  Figure  3  shows  the  relationship  between  the  probability  of  attendance 
and  education  level  for  the  sample  individual  with  none  of  the  three  socializa- 
tion experiences  (Example  no.  1)  and  with  all  three  (visual  art  lessons, 
attendance  with  parents,  and  an  art  appreciation  course)  of  the  socialization 
experiences  (Example  no.  2).  While  the  probability  of  attendance  still 
increases  with  higher  levels  of  education  as  before,  the  increase  in  the 
probability  of  attendance  due  to  socialization  is  very  striking. 

This  model  is  a  better  one  than  the  model  formulated  in  Part  I,  which 
used  only  demographic  variables.  The  proportion  of  the  variation  explained 


Figure  3 

Logit  Analysis— Graph  of  the  Probability  of  Attendance  by  Education 

for  Sample  Individual  with  Socialization  Variables 


14 

c 
« 

■o 
c 


o 


6  8  10 

Years  of  Education 


12 


14 


16 


Example  no.  1 

No  Socialization  Experiences 


•  Example  no.  2 
All  Three  Socialization  Experiences 


29 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

improved  from  16  percent  to  22  percent.  The  improvement  was  primarily  in 
the  model's  ability  to  predict  correctly  those  who  actually  attend  (47  percent 
in  the  socialization  model  as  opposed  to  27  percent  in  the  raw  demographic 
model),  but  this  model  is  still  a  long  way  from  what  one  would  like  to  have 
in  a  predictive  model. 


Part  III:  Unsatisfied  Demand  and  Barriers  to 

Attendance 

If  two  adults  out  of  nine  attended  an  art  museum  or  an  art  gallery  in  the 
previous  year,  seven  did  not.  Who  are  the  individuals  who  do  not  attend 
museums?  Why?  Who  would  like  to  attend  more?  Who  are  the  potential 
members  of  the  museum  audience?  The  answers  to  these  questions  are  of 
concern  both  to  museums  that  would  like  to  market  their  services  more 
effectively  and  to  funding  agencies  that  would  like  to  expand  the  reach  of 
arts  organizations  into  previously  unserved  or  underserved  segments  of  the 
community. 

Unsatisfied  Demand 

SPPA  data  on  the  responses  of  adults  who  said  they  would  like  to  attend 
art  museums  more  often  must  be  approached  with  a  degree  of  skepticism  for 
two  reasons.  First,  respondents'  answers  are  based  on  hypothetical  situations 
rather  than  on  actual  behavior.  It  is  easier  to  say  you  would  like  to  go  more 
often  than  to  actually  exert  the  effort  to  go.  Second,  when  attention  is 
restricted  to  demographic  variables  only,  they  become  the  only  possible 
explanations  for  unsatisfied  demand  or  non-attendance  that  are  readily 
available.  This  again  runs  the  risk  of  concluding  that  survey  respondents  are 
prisoners  to  their  demographics. 

Table  6  shows  that  nearly  a  third  of  American  adults  would  like  to  attend 
art  museums  more  often.  Yet  58  percent  of  the  individuals  who  are  already 
attenders  would  like  to  go  more  often,  while  only  23  percent  of  non-attenders 
would  like  to  attend  more  frequently.  (Interestingly,  this  percentage  remains 
quite  high  across  participation  levels:  of  those  individuals  who  indicated  that 
they  had  attended  an  art  museum  two  or  three  times  in  the  previous  month, 
62  percent  indicated  that  they  would  like  to  go  more  during  a  year;  of  those 
who  attended  six  or  more  times  in  the  previous  month,  52  percent  indicated 
they  would  like  to  attend  more  often.)  But  because  of  the  large  number  of 
non-attenders  in  the  adult  population,  nearly  60  percent  of  those  who  would 


30 


Table  6 
Unsatisfied  Demand  for  Attendance  at  Art  Museums 

and  Art  Galleries,  1985 

Question:  Few  people  can  do  everything  they  would  like  to  do.  But  if  you  could  do  any  of 
the  things  listed  on  this  card  as  often  as  you  wanted,  which  ones  would  you  do  more  often 
than  you  have  during  the  last  12  months? 

Per  1,000  Adults 


Percentage  who 

Number  Who 

Number  in 

checked  museums 

Checked  Museums 

Category 

Overall 

31% 

307 

1,000 

Attendance 

Attenders 

58% 

128 

219 

Non-Attenders 

23% 

179 

718 

Income 

$5,000  or  less 

25% 

21 

82 

$5,000-$9,999 

25% 

31 

126 

$10,00O-$14,999 

27% 

39 

143 

$15,00O-$24,999 

29% 

72 

247 

$25,00O-$49,999 

36% 

111 

308 

$50,000  or  more 

45% 

42 

94 

Education 

Grade  School 

12% 

13 

110 

Some  High  School 

22% 

26 

118 

High  School  Grad 

29% 

108 

376 

Some  College 

38% 

77 

203 

Four-year  College  Grad 

44% 

48 

220 

Graduate  School 

44% 

36 

82 

Age 

18-24  years 

34% 

55 

161 

25-34  years 

35% 

82 

238 

35-44  years 

35% 

63 

182 

45-54  years 

27% 

36 

132 

55-64  years 

28% 

36 

130 

65-74  years 

26% 

25 

97 

75+  years 

17% 

10 

59 

Gender 

Females 

33% 

173 

528 

Males 

28% 

134 

472 

Race 

Black 

25% 

27 

108 

White 

32% 

277 

873 

Other 

18% 

3 

19 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 


31 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

like  to  go  more  often  are  currently  not  attending.  The  problem  for  a  museum 
is  that  these  individuals  are  considerably  more  difficult  to  identify  than  those 
who  are  already  attenders. 

As  both  income  and  education  levels  increase  unsatisfied  demand  rises 
to  a  high  of  four  adults  out  of  nine.  By  income,  more  than  a  third  of  the 
individuals  with  unsatisfied  demand  can  be  found  in  the  $25,00O-$49,999 
income  group;  by  education,  nearly  a  third  can  be  found  among  those  whose 
highest  level  was  graduation  from  high  school.  When  we  examine  the  effect 
of  age,  unsatisfied  demand  remains  roughly  constant  at  35  percent  for 
individuals  age  16-44,  but  then  begins  to  decline. 

To  determine  which  demographic  variables  predict  best  those  individuals 
who  are  most  likely  to  have  unsatisfied  demand,  a  logit  model  was  run.  The 
actual  logit  results  are  reported  in  Table  C  of  the  Appendix.  Education 
emerges  from  this  model  as  the  most  important  predictor  of  unsatisfied 
demand,  with  a  positive  coefficient  and  the  highest  level  of  statistical 
significance  among  the  variables  tested.  The  probability  of  unsatisfied  de- 
mand rises  with  the  number  of  years  of  education  and  is  generally  higher  at 
higher  levels  of  income  (except  for  the  $15,000-$24,999  category).  The 
probability  of  unsatisfied  demand  decreases  gradually  with  age.  Women  are 
more  likely  to  have  unsatisfied  demand  than  men;  whites  are  more  likely  to 
have  unsatisfied  demand  than  Blacks  or  other  racial  groups;  students  are  more 
likely  than  non- students;  and  the  probability  of  unsatisfied  demand  rises  with 
increased  urbanization. 

The  results  show  that  while  the  model  does  help  in  identifying  the 
variables  that  are  most  highly  significant  in  a  statistical  sense,  the  overall 
performance  of  the  model  is  again  very  weak.  The  model  only  explains  5 
percent  of  the  variation  in  the  dependent  variable.  Although  there  are 
statistically  detectable  relationships  between  the  demographic  variables  and 
unsatisfied  demand,  there  is  a  lot  more  variation  in  unsatisfied  demand  that 
cannot  be  accounted  for  by  these  demographic  variables.  Together,  these 
findings  suggest  the  beginning  of  an  explanation,  but  they  are  far  from  being 
determinant. 

Barriers  to  Attendance 

Do  these  results  concerning  unsatisfied  demand  reflect  a  general  view 
among  the  population  that  museums  are  worthy  things  to  attend  and  that  more 
attendance  would  be  preferable  to  less?  Or  is  attendance  actually  constrained 
by  other  factors,  which,  if  they  were  removed,  would  result  in  increased 
attendance?  If  the  key  binding  constraints  are  ones  that  could  be  changed  by 


32 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

museums,  some  interesting  possibilities  could  arise  for  museums  that  are 
trying  to  decide  how  to  attract  new  audiences  and  increase  their  old  audiences. 

During  one  of  the  six  months  of  the  1985.SPPA  survey,  respondents  were 
asked  about  their  reasons  for  not  attending  more  often.  The  survey  question- 
naire offered  the  interviewers  fifteen  specific  reasons  according  to  which 
they  coded  the  oral  responses;  they  could  check  more  than  one  if  several 
factors  seemed  important.  The  results  are  summarized  in  Table  7. 

Before  examining  these  results,  it  is  important  to  realize  that  few  of  the 
barriers  to  attendance  included  in  the  SPPA  are  barriers  that  are  within  the 
direct  control  of  the  museums  themselves.  This  is  not  to  say  that  there  are 
not  important  barriers  to  attendance  that  are  the  result  of  choices  made  by 
museum  officials,  only  that  these  cannot  be  documented  within  the  confines 
of  the  SPPA  surveys. 

Overall,  few  of  these  barriers  seem  to  have  a  serious  effect  on  attendance. 
A  very  small  percentage  of  the  adult  population  cites  each  one  (with  the 
exception  of  the  vague  reasons  "not  enough  time"  and  "lack  of  motivation"). 
Yet,  3 1  percent  of  the  adult  population  cited  one  or  more  of  these  reasons  for 
non-attendance.  Although  many  people  have  reasons  for  not  attending  more, 
those  reasons  are  diffuse. 

A  second  overall  pattern  of  interest  is  that  for  every  barrier  except  "prefer 
to  watch  TV,"  the  percentage  of  attenders  who  cite  each  barrier  is  greater 
than  or  equal  to  the  percentage  of  non-attenders.  This  further  reinforces  the 
finding  that  unsatisfied  demand  is  greater  among  those  who  are  already 
attenders. 

Some  of  the  individual  findings  deserve  more  attention.  The  most  fre- 
quently cited  barrier  is  not  having  enough  time  (13.7  percent  of  the  popula- 
tion). One  barrier  that  might  have  been  expected  to  have  been  selected  more 
often  is  "feeling  uncomfortable" — it  is  often  suggested  that  arts  institutions 
make  it  very  difficult  for  the  uninitiated  to  feel  that  the  institution  is  accessible 
to  them.  Yet,  only  one-tenth  of  one  percent  of  the  population  felt  this  to  be 
a  problem.  (Interestingly,  low  percentages  like  this  are  found  across  all  of 
the  art  forms  included  in  SPPA.) 

A  moderate  percentage  of  individuals  cites  "lack  of  availability"  or  "too 
far  to  go"  as  reasons  for  lower  attendance.  While  it  seems  that  this  could  be 
attributed  to  the  geographic  distribution  pattern  of  museums,  without  further 
comparative  data  on  the  distribution  of  respondents  we  cannot  be  sure;  it  is 
also  possible  that  these  answers  were  used  by  respondents  to  express  an 
inaccessibility  that  was  part  psychological  as  well  as  geographical. 

To  better  target  potential  museum  audiences,  it  will  help  to  take  this 
analysis  one  step  further  and  ask,  "Of  those  with  unsatisfied  demand,  what 


33 


Table  7 

Barriers  to  Attendance  at  Art  Museums 

and  Art  Galleries,  1 985 

Question:  What  are  the  reasons  you  did  not  attend  art  galleries/art  museums  more  often? 
Any  other  reasons? 

Per  1,000  Adults 


Percent  Citing 

Number  Citing 

Number 

Barrier 

Barrier 

in  Category 

Tickets  sold  out 

All  Adults 

0.1% 

1 

1,000 

Attenders 

0.4% 

1 

219 

Non-Attenders 

0.0% 

0 

718 

Cost 

All  Adults 

4.0% 

40 

1,000 

Attenders 

5.7% 

13 

219 

Non-Attenders 

3.5% 

27 

718 

Not  available 

All  Adults 

6.4% 

64 

1,000 

Attenders 

11.4% 

25 

219 

Non-Attenders 

4.9% 

39 

718 

Too  far  to  go 

- 

All  Adults 

_      6.7% 

67 

1,000 

Attenders 

13.9% 

30 

219 

Non-Attenders 

4.6% 

36 

718 

Transportation/Traffic/ 

Parking  problems 

All  Adults 

2.7% 

27 

1,000 

Attenders 

3.7% 

8 

219 

Non-Attenders 

2.5% 

19 

718 

Crime  or  fear  of  crime 

All  Adults 

0.6% 

6 

1,000 

Attenders 

0.6% 

1 

219 

Non-Attenders 

0.6% 

5 

718 

Feel  uncomfortable 

All  Adults 

0.1% 

1 

1,000 

Attenders 

0.1% 

* 

219 

Non-Attenders 

0.1% 

1 

718 

Poor  Quality/Not  very  good, 

etc. 

All  Adults 

0.4% 

4 

1,000 

Attenders 

0.9% 

2 

219 

Non-Attenders 

0.3% 

2 

718 

34 


Table  7  (Continued) 


Percent  Citing 
Barrier 

Per  1,000  Adults 

Number  Citing 
Barrier 

Number 
in  Category 

Don't  have  anyone  to  go  with 

All  Adults 
Attenders 
Non-Attenders 

1.6% 

2.2% 
1.4% 

16 

5 

11 

1,000 
219 
718 

Problem  related  to  a  handicap 

All  Adults 
Attenders 
Non-Attenders 

0.4% 
0.5% 
0.3% 

4 
1 

3 

1,000 
219 
718 

Problem  related  to  age/health 

All  Adults 
Attenders 
Non-Attenders 

0.7% 
1.2% 
0.6% 

7 
3 
5 

1,000 
219 
718 

Babysitter  problems/ 
Must  care  for  children 

All  Adults 
Attenders 
Non-Attenders 

1.7% 
3.5% 
1.2% 

17 
8 
9 

1,000 
219 
718 

Prefer  to  watch  TV 

All  Adults 
Attenders 
Non-Attenders 

0.9% 
0.2% 
1.1% 

9 

* 

9 

1,000 
219 
718 

Don't  have  time 

All  Adults 
Attenders 
Non-Attenders 

13.7% 

27.9% 

9.7% 

137 
61 
75 

1,000 
219 
718 

Procrastination/ 
Lack  of  Motivation 

All  Adults 
Attenders 
Non-Attenders 

4.0% 
8.2% 
2.7% 

40 
18 
21 

1,000 
219 
718 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 

Notes:  For  each  barrier  to  attendance,  the  number  of  attenders  plus  the  number  of  non- 
attenders  who  cited  the  barrier  do  not  necessarily  add  up  to  the  total  number  of  adults 
who  cited  it  because  of  rounding  errors. 

*Less  than  one  person  per  thousand. 


35 


Table  8 
Barriers  to  Attendence  and  Unsatisfied  Demand,  1985 

Question:  What  are  the  reasons  you  did  not  attend  art  galleries/art  museums  more  often? 


*ercent  Citing 

Per  1,000  Adults 

I 

Number  Citing 

Number  in 

this  Barrier 

this  Barrier 

Category 

Cost 

All  adults  with  unsatisfied  demand 

12.8% 

39 

307 

Attenders 

9.5% 

12 

129 

Non-Attenders 

15.2% 

27 

178 

Not  available 

All  adults  with  unsatisfied  demand 

20.3% 

62 

307 

Attenders 

18.6% 

24 

129 

Non-Attenders 

21.5% 

38 

178 

Too  far  to  go 

All  adults  with  unsatisfied  demand 

21.5% 

66 

307 

Attenders 

23.5% 

30 

129 

Non-Attenders 

20.1% 

,36 

178 

Feel  uncomfortable 

All  adults  with  unsatisfied  demand 

0.4% 

1 

307 

Attenders 

0.2% 

* 

129 

Non-Attenders 

0.5% 

1 

178 

Poor  quality/Not  very  good,  etc. 

All  adults  with  unsatisfied  demand 

1.2% 

* 

307 

Attenders 

1.2% 

* 

129 

Non-Attenders 

1.2% 

* 

178 

Don't  have  time 

All  adults  with  unsatisfied  demand 

44.3% 

136 

307 

Attenders 

47.6% 

61 

129 

Non-Attenders 

42.0% 

75 

178 

Procrastination/Lack  of  motivation 

All  adults  with  unsatisfied  demand 

12.8% 

39 

307 

Attenders 

13.8% 

18 

129 

Non-Attenders 

12.0% 

21 

178 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 
*Less  than  one  person  per  thousand. 


36 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


percentage  cites  each  of  these  barriers?"  (Table  8)  In  this  case,  both  discom- 
fort and  lack  of  quality  remain  unimportant  barriers  to  participation;  but  cost, 
availability,  distance,  and  lack  of  time  are  all  of  significantly  higher  impor- 
tance among  those  who  also  said  that  they  would  like  to  be  able  to  attend  or 
to  attend  more  frequently.  The  responses  to  the  last  barrier,  "lack  of  motiva- 
tion," are  more  difficult  to  interpret;  there  is  a  paradox  in  the  fact  that  even 
12  to  13  percent  of  those  who  expressed  a  desire  for  more  attendance  cite 
"lack  of  motivation"  as  a  barrier  to  attendance.17 


Part  IV:  Profiles  of  the  Museum  Audience(s) 

Up  to  this  point  the  analysis  has  focused  on  demographic  groups  one  at 
a  time  and  asked  what  percentage  of  each  group  attends  art  museums,  what 
percentage  of  the  group  would  like  to  attend  more,  and  what  percentage  of 
the  group  cites  specific  reasons  for  not  attending  more.  This  section  takes  a 
different  perspective,  and  examines  how  the  demographic  characteristics  of 
the  SPPA  respondents  are  distributed  among  the  museum  audience  and  how 
this  audience  profile  compares  to  the  profile  of  the  general  population. 

But  proceeding  with  this  analysis  requires  a  much  clearer  definition  of 
the  group  of  individuals  we  are  actually  referring  to  when  we  speak  of  the 
"museum  audience."  The  audience  a  museum  sees  coming  through  its  doors 
is  not  the  same  as  the  audience  that  is  documented  in  a  cross-sectional 
sample  of  the  population,  such  as  the  SPPA.  This  is  true  for  two  reasons. 
First,  the  audience  of  a  particular  museum  will  differ  from  the  overall 
average  audience  profile  resulting  from  a  population  survey,  each  museum 
will  be  operating  in  the  midst  of  a  number  of  microf  actors  that  are  not  typical 
of  the  abstract,  "average"  museum.  A  museum's  ability  to  attract  certain 
demographic  groups  is  a  function  of  both  its  own  programming  choices, 
which  make  it  more  attractive  to  certain  demographic  groups  than  to  others, 
and  of  the  demographic  groups  that  actually  live  near  enough  to  make  access 
easy  of  the  museum. 

Second,  a  cross-sectional  survey  of  the  adult  population  allows  the 
identification  of  visitors  (and  non- visitors),  while  a  survey  of  admissions  at 
the  door  of  the  museum  is  a  survey  of  visits.  The  fundamental  difference  lies 
in  differences  in  frequency  of  attendance.  A  visitor  who  is  a  frequent  attender 
is  much  more  likely  to  be  picked  up  in  a  survey  within  a  museum  than  an 
individual  who  attends,  but  infrequently.  A  museum  that  wishes  to  figure  out 
how  many  different  individuals  it  is  serving  and  who  they  are  in  demographic 
terms  must  carefully  account  for  the  fact  that  frequent  attenders  are  more 


37 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

likely  to  appear  in  audience  samples  in  proportion  to  their  frequency  of 
attendance.18 

While  it  is  undoubtedly  an  oversimplification,  it  is  not  unreasonable  to 
suggest  that  the  audience  that  is  perceived  by  the  museum  is  the  audience  of 
visits,  while  the  audience  on  which  funding  agencies  focus  is  the  audience 
of  visitors.  But  which  focus  is  ultimately  appropriate  is  a  function  of  which 
decisions  are  at  stake.  A  museum  that  is  interested  in  better  targeting  its 
museum  shop  to  its  market,  for  example,  will  be  concerned  with  the  income 
profile  of  visits.  The  museum  that  is  trying  to  target  its  activities  to  new 
population  groups  may  be  more  concerned  with  the  demographics  of  visitors. 
The  funding  agency  that  is  concerned  about  outreach  and  new  constituencies 
will  stress  visitors,  while  a  funding  agency  that  is  trying  to  assess  how  reliant 
a  museum  can  become  on  paid  admissions  (in  order  to  determine  appropriate 
levels  of  government  or  private  funding)  will  stress  visits. 

Tables  9a  and  9b  summarize  the  distribution  of  visitors  and  visits 
according  to  several  of  the  demographic  variables  and  compare  those  dis- 
tributions to  the  corresponding  distributions  for  the  adult  population.  To 
estimate  visits  from  the  1985  SPPA  data  in  order  to  construct  these  tables, 
individuals  who  indicated  they  had  visited  an  art  gallery  or  art  museum  in 
the  previous  year  were  weighted  according  to  their  stated  frequency  of 
attendance.19 

Figures  4a  and  4b  and  5a  and  5b  display  some  of  the  information  in  Tables 
9a  and  9b  as  bar  charts,  giving  audience  profiles  according  to  income  and 
education — two  of  the  key  variables  whose  distribution  museums  attempt  to 
manage  through  reaching  out  to  new  and  underrepresented  constituencies — 
and  comparing  them  to  the  overall  adult  population. 

Looking  first  at  the  distribution  of  visitors,  the  audience  is  composed 
disproportionately  of  individuals  with  incomes  over  $25,000  (as  compared 
to  their  relative  proportion  in  the  overall  population).  Also  overrepresented 
are  individuals  with  more  than  a  high  school  education.  Visitors  are  slightly 
younger,  more  likely  to  be  white,  and  less  likely  to  come  from  outside  of 
urbanized  areas  than  the  overall  adult  population.  Professionals  are  twice  as 
likely  to  be  found  among  visitors  to  art  museums  as  among  the  general 
population. 

Among  visits,  upper  income  and  more  highly  educated  individuals  are 
even  more  overrepresented,  indicating  that  these  individuals  are  not  only 
more  likely  to  attend  art  museums  but  that  they  also  attend  more  frequently. 
From  the  individual  museum's  perspective,  this  means  that  an  income  or 
education  profile  of  visits  will  give  a  picture  of  an  audience  more  weighted 
toward  the  upper  categories  than  a  profile  of  the  actual,  identifiable  visitors 


38 


Table  9a 
Audience  Profiles  1985:  Percent  Distribution 


Adult  Population 


Visitors 


Visits 


Incomet 

$4,999  or  less 

8% 

6% 

9% 

$5,000-$9,999 

13% 

7% 

7% 

$10,000-$14,999 

14% 

9% 

10% 

$15,000-$24,999 

25% 

21% 

20% 

$25,000-$49,999 

31% 

38% 

27% 

$50,000  or  more 

9% 
100% 

19% 
100% 

27% 

100% 

Education 

Grade  School 

11% 

2% 

1% 

Some  High  School 

12% 

4% 

4% 

High  School  Grad 

38% 

24% 

13% 

Some  College 

20% 

27% 

29% 

Four-year  College  Grad 

11% 

23% 

25% 

Graduate  School 

8% 

21% 

28% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

Age 

18-24  years 

16% 

16% 

21% 

25-34  years 

24% 

28% 

23% 

35-44  years 

18% 

22% 

23% 

45-54  years 

13% 

14% 

14% 

55-64  years 

13% 

11% 

8% 

65-74  years 

10% 

7% 

7% 

75+  years 

6% 

3% 

3% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

Gender 

Female 

53% 

55% 

52% 

Male 

47% 

45% 

48% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

Race 

Black 

11% 

5% 

3% 

White 

87% 

93% 

92% 

Other 

2% 

2% 

5% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

Urbanization 

Central  City  of  SMS  A 

27% 

31% 

45% 

SMS  A  but  not  Central  City 

41% 

49% 

40% 

Outside  an  SMS  A 

32% 

20% 

15% 

100% 


100% 


100% 


Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 

*The  income  distribution  of  the  population  reported  here  differs  from  the  data  in  the  1985  Current  Popula- 
tion Survey,  which  shows  a  higher  proportion  of  the  population  in  the  upper  income  groups.  Nevertheless, 
the  figures  reported  here  are  internally  consistent  with  the  SPPA  data  and  relative  comparisons  of  the 
population  to  visitors  and  visits  are  the  best  possible  with  the  available  data. 


39 


Table  9b 
Audience  Profiles  1 985:  Number  per  1 ,000  Adults 


Adult  Population 

Visitors 

Visits 

Income' 

$4,999  or  less 

Of    82  adults,  there 

were    13  visitors, 

making    66  visits 

$5,000-  $9,999 

126 

14 

53 

$10,000-$  14,999 

143 

21 

77 

S15,000-$24,999 

247 

47 

149 

$25,000-S49,999 

308 

85 

200 

$50,000  or  more 

94 

42 

206 

Education 

Grade  School 

110 

4 

7 

Some  High  School 

118 

8 

29 

High  School  Grad 

376 

53 

97 

Some  College 

203 

60 

218 

Four-year  College  Grad 

110 

50 

188 

Graduate  School 

82 

45 

212 

Age 

18-24  years 

161 

35 

161 

25-34  years 

238 

61 

176 

35^44  years 

182 

48 

170 

45-54  years 

132 

30 

105 

55-64  years 

130 

24 

62 

65-74  years 

97 

16 

54 

75+  years 

59 

6 

24 

Gender 

- 

Female 

528 

121 

392 

Male 

472 

99 

359 

Race 

Black 

108 

12 

23 

White 

873 

203 

693 

Other 

19 

5 

35 

Urbanization 

Central  City  of  SMS  A 

271 

69 

339 

SMS  A  but  not  Central  City 

413 

107 

302 

Outside  an  SMSA 

316 

44 

110 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 

The  income  distribution  of  the  population  reported  here  differs  from  the  data  in  the  1985  Current  Popula- 
tion Survey,  which  shows  a  higher  proportion  of  the  population  in  the  upper  income  groups.  Nevertheless, 
the  figures  reported  here  are  internally  consistent  with  the  SPPA  data  and  relative  comparisons  of  the 
population  to  visitors  and  visits  are  the  best  possible  with  the  available  data. 


40 


Figure  4a 

Education  Profile  of  the  Audience  for  Art  Museums  and  Art  Galleries,  1985: 

Distribution  of  Visitors,  Visits,  and  the  Adult  Population 


50% 


40% 


30% 


20% 


10% 


Grade 
School 


Some  High 
School 


High 
School 


[        |  Visitors 


Some 
College 

Population 


College 
Grad 


Graduate 
School 


SNN  Visits 


Figure  4b 

Education  Profile  of  the  Audience  for  Art  Museums  and  Art  Galleries,  1985: 

Total  Number  of  Visitors,  Visits,  and  the  Adult  Population 


.a 
E 

3 

z 


Grade   Some  High   High 
School    School    School 


Visitors 


Some 
College 

Population 


College      Graduate 
Grad  School 


S£3  Visits 


41 


Figure  5a 

Income  Profile  of  the  Audience  for  Art  Museums  and  Art  Galleries,  1985: 

Distribution  of  Visitors,  Visits,  and  the  Adult  Population 


50% 


40% 


30% 


20% 


10% 


S0-$5K 


$5-$10K        $10-$15K       $15-$25K       $25-$50K         $50K  + 


[       1  Visitors 


Population 


777\  Visits 


Figure  5b 

Income  Profile  of  the  Audience  for  Art  Museums  and  Art  Galleries,  1985: 

Total  Number  of  Visitors,  Visits  and  the  Adult  Population 


60 


50 


40 


S    30 


4> 

JO 


$0-$5K  $5-$10K 

[      -J  Visitors 


$10-$15K       $15-$25K       $25-$50K 
I  Population 


$50K  + 

Visits 


42 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


who  are  being  served.  This  is  not  a  new  phenomenon;  earlier  studies  have 
noticed  much  the  same  pattern,  which  has  not  changed  substantially  in  the 
25  years  for  which  various  data  sources  are  available.20 

While  these  distributions  provide  useful  bases  by  which  to  compare  both 
aggregate  changes  in  the  museum  audience  over  time  and  a  particular 
museum's  audience  to  the  aggregate  audience,  one  should  not  be  too  hopeful 
that  interventions  in  the  operation  of  art  museums  will  succeed  in  dramati- 
cally changing  the  audience  profile.  These  aggregate  profiles  are  very  robust, 
reflecting  a  variety  of  factors,  not  the  least  of  which  is  the  interaction  of  the 
population's  tastes  with  its  demographic  characteristics.  Research  into  au- 
dience demographics  has  repeatedly  shown  that  while  short-term  changes  in 
the  audience  profile  may  be  attained  through  very  visible  and  popularly 
attractive  exhibitions  or  programs,  it  is  much  more  difficult  to  sustain  these 
changes  over  a  longer  period.21 

But  note  that  a  growth  in  attendance  figures  is  not  incompatible  with  an 
overall  stability  in  the  profile  of  the  audience.  The  size  of  the  audience  can 
increase,  either  through  new  attenders  or  through  increases  in  the  frequency 
of  attendance  of  previous  attenders,  while  the  demographic  profile  of  the 
audience  might  change  very  little  (except  to  reflect  general  societal  changes 
in  the  level  of  income  or  the  level  of  education).  Another  way  to  state  this  is 
that  the  raw  numbers  per  1,000  adults  in  Table  9b  could  increase  while  the 
relative  percentages  in  Table  9a  remained  more  or  less  the  same. 

Table  10  shows  the  average  number  of  visits  per  adult  and  visits  per 
visitor  disaggregated  by  income  and  by  education  level.  The  average  number 
of  visits  per  adult  per  year  is  0.75;  this  means  that  the  average  American  adult 
attends  an  art  museum  or  art  gallery  once  every  16  months.  Visits  per  adult 
remain  more  or  less  at  this  level  across  income  groups,  with  the  exception  of 
individuals  with  incomes  over  $50,000.  These  adults  attend  art  museums  an 
average  of  2.26  times  per  year.  Looking  at  only  those  visitors  who  actually 
visited  an  art  museum  in  the  previous  year,  the  average  number  of  visits  per 
visitor  is  3.42;  individuals  who  go  to  art  museums  go  slightly  more  than  once 
every  four  months.  Only  the  lowest  income  group  (5.33  visits  per  visitor) 
and  the  highest  income  group  (5.03  visits  per  visitor)  have  rates  substantially 
different  from  the  overall  rate.  (Separating  students  from  non-students  does 
not  remove  the  apparent  anomaly  in  the  lowest  income  group.) 

Across  education  levels,  visits  per  person  increase  from  0.06  to  2.58. 
Visits  per  visitor  are  lowest  for  individuals  with  only  a  grade  school  educa- 
tion— 1.60 — and  highest  for  those  with  at  least  some  graduate  school  educa- 
tion— 4.69.  The  dip  to  1.84  visits  per  visitor  for  high  school  graduates  is 
another  anomaly  in  the  data. 


43 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

Table  10 
Frequency  of  Attendance  by  Income  and  Education, 

1985 


Visits  Per 

Visits  Per 

Adult 

Visitor 

Overall 

0.75 

3.42 

Income 

$4,999  or  less 

0.83 

5.33 

$5,000-$9,999 

0.43 

3.75 

$10,000-$14,999 

0.55 

3.80 

$15,000-524,999 

0.62 

3.28 

$25,000-$49,999 

0.67 

2.41 

$50,000  or  more 

2.26 

5.03 

Education 

Grade  School 

0.06 

1.60 

Some  High  School 

0.24 

3.64 

High  School  Grad 

0.26 

1.84 

Some  College 

1.08 

3.65 

Four-year  College  Grad 

1.71 

3.80 

Graduate  School 

2.58 

4.69 

Source:  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,"  1985. 

Note:  The  number  of  visits  per  year  for  each  respondent  was  estimated  from  the 
respondent's  answer  to  the  question:  "How  many  times  did  you  do  this  [visit  an  art 
museum  or  an  art  gallery]  last  month?"  For  a  detailed  discussion  of  the  procedure  used, 
see  Note  19. 


Projecting  the  estimate  of  0.75  visits  per  adult  to  the  entire  1985  adult 
population  leads  to  a  rough  estimate  of  128  million  visits  made  by  37.5 
million  adult  American  visitors  to  art  museums  and  art  galleries  in  1985. 
However,  because  of  the  number  of  assumptions  necessary  to  derive  an 
overall  estimate  from  the  SPPA  data,  one  should  not  place  too  much 
confidence  in  this  overall  estimate. 

What  do  other  sources  say  about  the  volume  of  attendance  at  American 
art  museums?  Museums  USA  was  the  first  major  cross-sectional  study  of 
American  museums.  It  estimated  that  in  1971-1972  there  were  1,821  mu- 
seums that  met  the  accreditation  criteria  of  the  American  Association  of 
Museums,  340  of  which  were  primarily  art  museums.22  According  to  the 
survey  results,  art  museums  had  an  average  attendance  of  127,000  in  that 
year,  for  a  total  of  43  million  visits.  The  186  art/history  museums  had  an 


44 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


average  attendance  of  94,000  visits,  or  an  additional  17.5  million  visits,  for 
a  total  of  60.5  million  visits  to  art  and  art/history  museums.  This  study 
employed  a  broad  definition  of  attendance,  including  general  attendance  by 
adults,  children,  and  foreign  tourists,  and  attendance  at  special  exhibitions, 
by  school  class  groups,  at  workshops  and  classes,  and  performing  arts 
presentations,  films,  etc.  Taken  together  these  lead  to  a  more  inclusive  total 
attendance  figure  than  the  one  that  can  be  derived  from  SPPA. 

More  recently,  the  Institute  of  Museum  Services  commissioned  the 
National  Center  for  Education  Statistics  to  undertake  a  more  comprehensive 
study  of  the  museum  universe.23  This  1979  study  used  a  slightly  broader 
definition  of  a  museum  that  included  nonprofit  museums  without  profes- 
sional staff.  This  study  identified  a  universe  of  4,408  museums,  609  of  which 
were  defined  as  primarily  art  museums.  These  museums  had  an  average 
annual  attendance  of  81,817.  This  figure  is  lower  than  the  Museums  USA 
figure  from  seven  years  earlier  because  of  the  broader  definition  of  museums, 
which  brought  many  smaller  museums  into  the  overall  calculations,  rather 
than  because  of  any  substantial  fall  in  museum  attendance.  This  figure 
projects  a  total  of  49.8  million  visits  in  1979.  Yet,  these  figures  are  not 
particularly  reliable  because  the  survey  also  uncovered  the  fact  that  only  247 
of  the  art  museums  were  using  what  could  be  termed  "accurate  attendance 
measurement  methods";  the  others  were  forced  to  estimate.  Once  again,  this 
total  includes  many  individuals  beyond  the  American  adults  on  whom  SPPA 
focused. 

Despite  their  drawbacks,  these  benchmarks  suggest  that  the  aggregate 
figures  derived  from  SPPA  reflect  overestimation  on  the  part  of  the  respon- 
dents. It  would  not  be  surprising  if  the  SPPA-derived  estimate  is  high  by  a 
factor  of  two  or  more. 

But  the  estimate  derived  from  the  SPPA  data  is  not  as  high  as  the  estimate 
of  total  attendance  that  one  would  infer  from  the  Harris  Americans  and  the 
Arts  data.24  Though  the  documentation  is  not  explicit  as  to  how  the  calcula- 
tions were  made,  Harris  reports  a  mean  of  2.7  visits  per  visitor  for  his  data 
(lower  than  the  comparable  estimate  from  SPPA  data).  Adjusting  this  figure 
by  the  participation  rate  calculated  by  Harris  leads  to  a  mean  of  1.57  visits 
per  adult  in  the  U.S.  population.  Multiplying  this  figure  by  the  size  of  the 
adult  population  leads  to  the  highest  attendance  estimate  of  all,  267  million 
visits  to  art  museums  by  American  adults  in  1984. 

Although  the  overall  estimates  derived  from  the  SPPA  frequency  of 
attendance  data  seem  high,  that  does  not  necessarily  imply  that  the  distribu- 
tions of  visits  are  incorrect.  Unless  one  wishes  to  argue  that  individuals  in 
certain  income  groups  or  educational  levels  are  more  likely  to  overestimate 


45 


— I — __ 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

their  attendance  patterns  than  individuals  in  other  demographic  groups,  using 
the  relative  frequency  of  attendance  to  generate  the  distributions  of  visits 
presented  in  Tables  9a  and  9b  is  a  reasonable  procedure  and  provides  the  best 
currently  available  profiles  of  the  American  audience  for  art  museums. 

Conclusion 

An  understanding  of  audiences  for  museums  begins  with  attendance 
figures  and  is  enhanced  by  demographic  information,  but  it  will  not  be 
complete  without  a  better  understanding  of  why  people  visit  museums  and 
how  those  visits  are  integrated  into  their  value  system.  That  work  is  just 
beginning. 

One  of  the  next  steps  is  to  turn  to  measures  of  museum  effectiveness: 
What  is  the  quality  of  a  visit  to  a  museum?  In  studying  their  audiences, 
museums  will  do  well  to  heed  the  reminder  of  Alma  Wittlin: 

Neither  visitors'  books  in  which  the  attendance  is  supposedly 
registered  nor  the  stricter  control  of  the  turnstile  at  the  gate  of  the 
museum  which  mechanically  records  the  number  of  visitors  is  a 
true  indicator  of  performance.  At  their  best  they  record  the  number 
of  warm  bodies  entering  the  premises.25 

A  museum  can  change  itself  or  it  can  work  to  change  its  audience.  Either 
kind  of  change  will  be  difficult,  but  it  will  be  impossible  to  measure  one 
important  aspect  of  that  change — changes  in  the  makeup  of  its  audience — if 
the  museum  does  not  document  and  understand  its  current  audience  first.26 

It  is  my  hope  that  in  this  monograph  I  have  provided  a  solid  base  on  which 
museums  can  begin,  or  expand,  the  study  of  their  own  audiences  in  a 
systematic  fashion.  It  is  increasingly  important  for  a  museum  to  understand 
the  population  it  serves  as  well  as  the  population  it  does  not  yet  serve.27 


46 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


NOTES 


1.  Alma  S.  Wittlin,  Museums:  In  Search  of  a  Usable  Future  (Cambridge, 
Mass.:  M.LT.  Press,  1970),  p.  76. 

2.  Ibid.,  pp.  102-103. 

3.  Nathaniel  Burt,  Palaces  for  the  People:  A  Social  History  of  the  American 
Art  Museum  (Boston:  Little,  Brown  and  Company,  1977),  pp.  282-283; 
and  Karl  E.  Meyer,  The  Art  Museum:  Power,  Money,  Ethics  (New  York: 
William  Morrow  and  Company,  1979),  pp.  64,  121. 

4.  Paul  DiMaggio,  Michael  Useem,  and  Paula  Brown,  Audience  Studies  of 
the  Performing  Arts  and  Museums:  A  Critical  Review,  Research  Division 
Report  #9  (Washington,  D.C.:  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts,  No- 
vember 1978). 

5.  Ibid,  p.  33.  An  example  of  the  latter  approach  is  contained  in  Alan  L. 
Feld,  Michael  O'Hare,  and  J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster,  Patrons  Despite 
Themselves:  Taxpayers  and  Arts  Policy  (New  York:  New  York  Univer- 
sity Press,  1983),  pp.  74-75. 

6.  The  reader  who  wishes  to  extrapolate  these  findings  to  estimates  for  the 
entire  American  population  can  multiply  any  of  the  figures  reported  in 
the  tables  that  are  expressed  in  terms  of  number  per  1,000  adults  by 
170,520.  This  multiplication  will  weight  these  figures  to  the  size  of  the 
adult  American  population  in  1985,  which  the  U.S.  Bureau  of  the  Census 
estimated  at  170,520,000  in  constructing  its  own  weighting  for  SPPA  '85. 

7.  Unfortunately,  because  the  Bureau  of  the  Census  has  masked  the  regional 
variables  on  the  data  tape  that  is  publicly  available  to  protect  the 
confidentiality  of  the  respondents,  it  is  not  possible  to  explore  regional 
differences  any  further  than  through  the  simple  analyses  that  are  pre- 
sented at  the  end  of  Table  1.  These  analyses  were  prepared  separately  by 
the  Bureau  of  the  Census  from  the  complete  data  tape  and  provided  to 
the  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts. 

8.  National  Research  Center  of  the  Arts,  Inc.,  Americans  and  the  Arts:  A 
Survey  of  Public  Opinion  (New  York:  Associated  Councils  of  the  Arts, 
1975),  [1973  study];  National  Research  Center  of  the  Arts,  Inc.,  Ameri- 
cans and  the  Arts:  A  Survey  of  the  Attitudes  Toward  and  Participation 
in  the  Arts  and  Culture  of  the  United  States  Public  (New  York:  As- 
sociated Councils  of  the  Arts,  August  1975),  [1975  study];  National 
Research  Center  of  the  Arts,  Inc.,  Americans  and  the  Arts  (New  York: 
American  Council  for  the  Arts,  1981),  [1980  study];  National  Research 
Center  of  the  Arts,  Inc.,  Americans  and  the  Arts  (New  York:  Louis  Harris 
and  Associates,  October  1984),  [1984  study];  National  Research  Center 


47 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

of  the  Arts,  Americans  and  the  Arts  V:  A  Nationwide  Survey  of  Public 
Opinion  (New  York:  American  Council  for  the  Arts,  March  1988),  [1987 
study]. 
9.  John  P.  Robinson,  Carol  A.  Keegan,  Terry  Hanford,  and  Timothy  A. 
Triplett,  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts:  Final  Report  on  the  1982 
Survey,  Appendix  B,  unpublished  report  available  from  the  Research 
Division,  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts. 

10.  J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster,  "Making  Compromises  to  Make  Com- 
parisons in  Cross-National  Arts  Policy  Research,"  Journal  of  Cultural 
Economics,  Vol.  11,  No.  2,  December  1987. 

11.  Market  &  Opinion  Research  International  Limited,  unpublished  report 
on  a  survey  conducted  for  BBC  "Panorama,"  26  November  1981  (some 
results  from  this  survey  have  been  published  in  John  Myerscough,  Facts 
About  the  Arts  2: 1986  Edition  (London:  Policy  Studies  Institute,  Sep- 
tember 1986),  pp.  294-301);  Ministere  de  la  Culture,  Service  des  Etudes 
et  Recherches,  Pratiques  Culturelles  des  Frangais:  Description  Socio- 
Demographique— Evolution  1973-1981  (Paris:  Dalloz,  1982),  report  of 
a  survey  conducted  by  ARCmc;  Official  Statistics  of  Sweden,  Cultural 
Statistics:  Activities,  Economy  and  Cultural  Habits  1980-1984  [Kul- 
turstatistik]  (Stockholm:  Statistics  Sweden,  1987);  Ministere  des  Af- 
faires Culturelles  du  Quebec,  Chiffres  d  L App ui,  Bulletin  du  Service  de 
la  Recherche  et  de  la  Planification,  Vol.  2,  no.  2,  May  1984,  pp.  9-14, 
report  of  a  public  opinion  poll  conducted  by  the  Centre  de  Recherche  sur 
T Opinion  Publique  in  1983. 

12.  Market  &  Opinion  Research  International  Limited,  unpublished  report 
on  a  survey  conducted  for  BBC  "Panorama,"  26  November  1981.  This 
study  also  found  that  trade  union  members  were  more  likely  to  go  to 
museums  than  non-members  (31%:28%),  but  non-members  were  more 
likely  to  go  to  art  exhibitions  (15%:21%).  Participation  rates  were 
highest  among  persons  intending  to  vote  Conservative,  somewhat  lower 
for  those  intending  to  vote  Social  Democrat/Liberal  Alliance,  and 
lowest  for  Labour  (35%:29%:25%  for  museums  and  27%:21%:  13%  for 
art  exhibitions).  Not  surprisingly,  museum  participation  rates  were  the 
highest  among  those  who  supported  public  funding  for  ballet,  opera,  or 
theatre:  36-38  percent  of  supporters  attended  museums,  26  to  28  percent 
attended  art  exhibitions.  Participation  rates  were  roughly  three  times 
higher  for  individuals  who  had  heard  of  the  Arts  Council  of  Great 
Britain. 

13.  Ministere  de  la  Culture,  Service  des  Etudes  et  Recherches,  Pratiques 
Culturelles  des  Frangais,  p.  151. 


48 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


14.  Ministere  des  Affaires  Culturelles  du  Quebec,  Chiffres  d  L'Appui,  May 
1984,  pp.  9-14. 

15.  For  a  useful  discussion  of  multiple  classification  analysis  using  an  arts 
example  with  SPPA  data,  see  John  P.  Robinson,  Carol  A.  Keegan, 
Marcia  Karth,  and  Timothy  A.  Triplett,  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts: 
Final  Report  on  the  1985  Survey,  "Volume  I:  Overall  Project  Report," 
1987,  pp.  62-76,  unpublished  report  available  from  the  Research  Divi- 
sion, National  Endowment  for  the  Arts. 

1 6.  A  relatively  readable  presentation  of  logit  analysis  is  contained  in  Robert 
S.  Pindyck  and  Daniel  L.  Rubinfeld,  Econometric  Models  and  Economic 
Forecasts  (New  York:  McGraw-Hill,  1981),  pp.  275-301. 

17.  When  I  wrote  about  this  paradox  in  the  first  draft  of  this  monograph,  I 
suggested  that  it  might  indicate  a  separation  between  societal  expecta- 
tions— "I  ought  to  go  to  museums  because  it  is  considered  a  worthy  thing 
to  do" — and  personal  desires — "I  am  not  really  motivated  to  go." 

Since  then  readers  have  suggested  two  other  possible  explanations. 
Pam  Brusic  has  suggested  that,  ".  .  .  today  people  are  more  burdened 
with  personal  than  societal  expectations — Tf  I  want  to  be  a  well- 
informed  and  cultured  person,  I  ought  to  go  to  museums.' — and  are  more 
likely  to  mean  lack  of  ability  to  organize  their  personal  time  sufficiently 
to  attend  when  they  cite  'lack  of  motivation.' . . .  (T)here  is  an  undertone 
of  self-disapproval  in  a  'lack  of  motivation'  response  and  ...  to  lack 
motivation  is  generally  thought  of  as  a  personal  character  flaw . . .  (T)his 
alternate  explanation . .  reflects  more  on  the  respondent's  attitude  toward 
himself  than  toward  the  museum  he  is  not  motivated  to  attend." 

Harold  Horowitz  has  offered  a  more  prosaic  explanation.  When  re- 
spondents got  to  this  point  in  the  survey  they  were  asked  if  they  would 
have  liked  to  have  gone  to  various  artistic  activities  more  often.  Thinking 
that  the  long  survey  was  almost  over,  they  answered  "Yes,"  but  they  were 
then  asked  a  series  of  questions  about  barriers  to  attendance  for  each  of 
the  art  forms  for  which  they  had  indicated  a  desire  to  attend  more  often. 
Not  having  well-thought-out  reasons  in  mind,  they  gave  a  vague  reponse 
that  was  invariably  coded  "lack  of  motivation." 

These  three  rival  explanations  illustrate  well  the  difficulty  of  extract- 
ing definitive  theories  and  explanations  even  from  a  dataset  as  complete 
and  as  carefully  collected  as  SPPA  '85. 

18.  For  a  further  discussion  of  these  concepts  see  Feld,  O'Hare,  and  Schuster, 
Patrons  Despite  Themselves,  p.  74;  and  Michael  O'Hare,  "The  Audience 
of  the  Museum  of  Fine  Arts,"  Curator,  Vol.  17,  no.  2,  June  1974,  p.  129. 
Unfortunately,  this  important  distinction  is  often  overlooked;  for 


49 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

example,  the  otherwise  excellent  manual,  Surveying  Your  Arts  Audience, 
published  by  the  Research  Division  of  the  National  Endowment  for  the 
Arts  (Washington,  D.C.:  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts,  1985),  is 
silent  on  this  subject. 

19.  SPPA  '85  used  two-part  questions  to  ascertain  levels  of  participation  in 
various  artistic  activities.  The  first  part  asked  whether  or  not  the  respon- 
dent had  participated  in  the  activity  in  the  previous  year,  and  the  second 
how  often  the  respondent  had  actually  attended  in  the  previous  month. 
Robinson  et  al.  have  studied  apparent  inconsistencies  between  the 
answers  to  these  two  parts  and  have  concluded  that  it  is  most  likely  that 
the  monthly  frequency  question  overestimates  frequency  of  attendance 
because  respondents  "telescope"  their  previous  year's  experience  into 
the  previous  month.  (It  is  still  logically  possible,  however,  that  respon- 
dents underestimate  their  annual  participation.)  Robinson  et  al.,  Public 
Participation  in  the  Arts:  Final  Report  on  the  1982  Survey,  pp.  227-233. 

In  the  analysis  of  the  relative  profiles  of  the  museum  audience  I  have 
used  the  frequency  data  to  weight  respondents'  attendance  to  calculate 
the  distribution  of  visits.  This  procedure  is  valid  as  long  as  there  is  no 
reason  to  believe  that  individuals  in  one  demographic  grouping  are  more 
likely  to  overestimate  their  attendance  than  individuals  in  another 
demographic  grouping. 

SPPA  '85  was  conducted  over  six  months.  I  weighted  each  month's 
respondents  by  a  weight  that  was  the  product  of  how  many  individuals  in 
the  total  population  each  respondent  represented  (a  function  of  his  or  her 
demographic  characteristics)  times  the  frequency  of  attendance  by  that 
respondent  in  the  previous  month.  Adding  the  six  estimates  together  gave 
an  estimate  of  the  total  number  of  visits  to  art  museums  made  by  the  total 
adult  population  over  those  six  months.  I  then  multiplied  these  factors  by 
two  to  represent  one  entire  year  of  attendance.  In  cases  where  the 
frequencies  were  reported  in  categories — e.g.  two  to  three  times  in  the 
month — I  used  the  lower  bound  of  the  interval  to  represent  the  frequency 
of  attendance,  using  the  most  conservative  assumption  in  a  situation 
where  there  is  reason  to  believe  that  overestimation  is  common. 

I  tested  the  reasonableness  of  this  procedure  by  doing  a  sensitivity 
analysis,  performing  a  second  analysis  using  the  midpoints  of  the 
categories  (and  8  visits  for  the  6+  category).  The  distributions  of  visits 
across  the  various  demographic  variables  changed  by  only  one  percent- 
age point  in  one  or  two  cases.  Thus,  the  percentage  distributions  are  not 
sensitive  to  the  choice  of  frequency  to  represent  the  categories. 

20.  Feld,  O'Hare,  and  Schuster,  Patrons  Despite  Themselves,  pp.  80-83; 


50 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 


also,  J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster,  unpublished  comparison  of  results 
from  the  Baumol  and  Bowen  audience  surveys  in  the  1960s  (William  J. 
Baumol  and  William  G.  Bowen,  Performing  Arts:  The  Economic  Dilem- 
ma, Cambridge,  Mass.:  M.LT.  Press  1967,  pp.  71-98)  with  results  from 
the  Americans  and  the  Arts  surveys  of  the  1970s  (see  Note  9). 

21.  A  variety  of  studies  done  in  Great  Britain  and  France,  particularly  under 
the  auspices  of  the  Research  Division  of  the  French  Ministry  of  Culture, 
suggest  that  audience  demographics  are  surprisingly  stable  across  fine 
art  forms,  across  regions,  and  over  time.  Unfortunately,  there  has  been 
no  attempt  to  bring  them  together  in  one  place  to  further  explore  the 
resilience  of  this  stability. 

22.  National  Research  Center  of  the  Arts,  Museums  USA:  A  Survey  Report 
(Washington,  D.C.:  U.S.  Government  Printing  Office,  January  1975), 
pp.  xi  and  130. 

23.  Lewis  C.  Price,  Lisa  DiRocco,  and  Janice  D.  Lewis,  Contractor  Report: 
Museum  Program  Survey,  1979  (Washington,  D.C.:  National  Center  for 
Education  Statistics,  March  1981),  pp.  52-64.  This  report  is  also  referred 
to  as  the  "Museum  Universe  Survey." 

24.  National  Research  Center  of  the  Arts,  Inc.,  Americans  and  the  Arts  [1984 
study],  pp.  62  and  65. 

25.  Wittlin,  Museums,  p.  161. 

26.  As  a  starting  point  see,  for  example,  Marilyn  G.  Hood,  "Getting  Started 
in  Audience  Research,"  Museum  News,  Vol.  64,  no.  2,  February  1986, 
pp.  25-31;  and  Research  Division,  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts, 
Surveying  Your  Arts  Audience. 

27.  This  is  one  of  the  points  stressed  in  Wittlin 's  "Twelve-Point  Program  for 
Museum  Renewal."  Wittlin,  Museums,  pp.  212-213. 


51 


Appendix 
Results  from  Three  Logit  Analyses 

The  text  discusses  the  results  of  three  different  logit  analyses  that  were 
conducted  with  the  SPPA  museum  attendance  data.  The  actual  mathematical 
results  of  these  three  analyses  are  reported  in  this  appendix. 

It  may  be  helpful  for  the  more  mathematically  inclinded  reader  to 
understand  that  logit  analysis  is  a  form  of  regression  analysis  in  which  the 
"natural  logarithm"  (logarithm  to  the  base  "e" — a  mathematical  constant 
equal  to  2.7 1 83)  of  the  odds  ratio  (the  probability  of  attending  divided  by  the 
probability  of  not  attending)  is  predicted  as  a  linear  combination  of  the 
independent  variables.  In  this  way,  the  separate  marginal  contribution  of  each 
of  the  independent  variables  to  the  logarithm  of  the  odds  ratio  can  be 
calculated  as  the  "coefficient"  of  each  variable.  (By  comparison,  ordinary 
regression  analysis  calculates  the  separate  marginal  contribution  of  each 
independent  variable  directly  to  a  dependent  variable.)  The  "intercept"  is  the 
value  of  the  logarithm  of  the  odds  ratio  when  all  of  the  independent  variables 
are  equal  to  zero.  This  value  is  necessary  to  position  the  logit  curve  in  the 
proper  place.  The  probability  of  attendance  at  any  point  on  the  logit  curve 
can  be  calculated  algebraically  from  the  logit  equation. 

The  results  of  using  logit  analysis  to  predict  the  probability  of  attendance 
from  seven  independent  demographic  variables — income,  age,  race,  gender, 
education  level,  urbanization,  and  student  status — is  reported  in  Table  A.  The 
logit  results  in  Table  B  predict  the  probability  of  attendance  from  eight 
independent  variables,  five  of  the  most  important  demographic  variables  plus 
three  variables  that  measure  whether  or  not  the  individual  had  different 
socialization  experiences.  And  Table  C  reports  the  results  of  a  logit  analysis 
that  predicts  the  probability  of  an  individual  having  unsatisfied  demand  using 
the  seven  original  demographic  variables. 


52 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

Table  A 
Logit  Results  Predicting  the  Probability  of  Attendance 


Variable  Name 

Definition 

Coefficient 

Significant  at 
.05  Level? 

Intercept 

-6.075 

Income  2 

=  1  if  $4,999  <  income  <  $10,000 
=  0  otherwise 

-O.l  50 

No 

Income  3 

=  1  if  $9,999  <  income  <  $15,000 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.123 

No 

Income  4 

=  1  if  $14,999  <  income  <  $25,000 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.004 

No 

Income  5 

=  1  if  $24,999  <  income  <  $50,000 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.201 

Yes 

Income  6 

=  1  if  $49,999  <  income 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.563 

Yes 

Age 

=  age  in  years 

-0.004 

Yes 

Race  2 

=  1  if  individual  is  Black 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.815 

Yes 

Race  3 

=  1  if  individual  is  "other"  race 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.064 

No 

Gender 

=  1  if  female 
=  0  if  male 

+0.355 

Yes 

Educational  Level 

=  number  of  years  of  formal  education 

+0.328 

Yes 

SMSA1 

=  1  if  live  in  central  city  of  an  SMS  A 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.689 

Yes 

SMS  A  2 

=  1  if  live  in  SMS  A  but  not  in  central  city  +0.450 
=  0  otherwise 

Yes 

Student 

=  1  if  currently  a  student 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.393 

Yes 

R  =.16 


Logit  Equation: 


If,  P  =  Probability  of  attendance  for  a  particular  individual. 

Then,         Natural  logarithm  (P/l-P)  =     -  6.075  -  0. 150(Income  2)  -  0. 123(Income  3)  -  0.004(Income  4) 

+  0.201  (Income  5)  +  0.563  (Income  6)  -0.004(Age)  -0.815(Race2) 
-  0.064(Race  3)  +  0.355(Gender)  +  0.328(Educational  Level) 
+  0.689(SMSA  1)  +  0.450(SMSA  2)  +  0.3  93  (Student) 


53 


J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

Table  B 

Logit  Results  Predicting  the  Probability  of 

Attendance  with  Socialization  Variables 


Parents  2 


Parents  3 


R2  =  .22 


in  art  history  or  appreciation 
=  0  otherwise 

=  1  if  parents  took  individual  to  arts 
museum  occasionally 
=  0  otherwise 

=  1  if  parents  took  individual  to  arts 
museum  frequently 
=  0  otherwise 


Significant  at 


Variable  Name 

Definition 

Coefficient 

.05  Level? 

Intercept 

-4.137 

Income  2 

=  1  if  $4,999  <  income  <  $10,000 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.316 

No 

Income  3 

=  1  if  $9,999  <  income  <  $15,000 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.091 

No 

Income  4 

=  1  if  $14,999  <  income  <  $25,000 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.196 

No 

Income  5 

=  1  if  $24,999  <  income  <  $50,000 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.144 

No 

Income  6 

=  1  if  $49,999  <  income 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.540 

Yes 

Age 

=  age  in  years 

-0.007 

Yes 

Race  2 

=  1  if  individual  is  Black 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.852 

Yes 

Race  3 

=  1  if  individual  is  "other"  race 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.177 

No 

Gender 

=  1  if  female 
=  0  if  male 

-0.008 

No 

Educational  Level 

=  number  of  years  of  formal  education 

+0.186 

Yes 

Lessons 

=  1  if  individual  has  ever  taken 

visual  arts  lessons 

+0.758 

No 

=  0  otherwise 

Appreciation 

=  1  if  individual  has  ever  taken  course 

+0.783 


+0.625 


+  1.359 


No 


Yes 


Yes 


Logit  Equation: 

If,  P  =  Probability  of  attendance  for  a  particular  individual. 

Then,        Natural  logarithm  (P/l-P)  =     -  4.137  -  0.316(Income  2)  -  0.091(Income  3)  -  0.196(Income  4) 

+  0.144(Income  5)  +  0.540(Income  6)  -  0.007(Age)  -  0.852(Race  2) 
-  0.177(Race  3)  -  0.008(Gender)  +  0. 186(Educational  Level) 
+  0.758(Lessons)  +  0.784(Appreciation)  +  0.625(Parents  2) 
+  1.359(Parents3) 


54 


The  Audience  for  American  Art  Museums 

Table  C 

Logit  Results  Predicting  the  Probability 

of  Having  Unsatisfied  Demand 


Variable  Name 

Definition 

Coefficient 

Significant  at 
.05  Level? 

Intercept 

-2.834 

Income  2 

=  1  if  $4,999  <  income  <  $10,000 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.107 

No 

Income  3 

=  1  if  $9,999  <  income  <  $15,000 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.135 

No 

Income  4 

=  1  if  $14,999  <  income  <  $25,000 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.105 

No 

Income  5 

=  1  if  $24,999  <  income  <  $50,000 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.289 

Yes 

Income  6 

=  1  if  $49,999  <  income 
=  0  otherwise 

+0.312 

No 

Age 

=  age  in  years 

-0.007 

Yes 

Race  2 

=  1  if  individual  is  Black 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.339 

Yes 

Race  3 

=  1  if  individual  is  "other"  race 
=  0  otherwise 

-0.749 

Yes 

Gender 

=  1  if  female 
=  0  if  male 

+0.315 

Yes 

Educational  Level 

=  number  of  years  of  formal  education 

+0.147 

Yes 

SMSA1 

=  1  if  live  in  central  citv  of  an  SMS  A 

+0.314 

Yes 

=  0  otherwise 

=  1  if  live  in  SMS  A  but  not  in  central  city  +0.218 
=  0  otherwise 


=  1  if  currently  a  student 
=  0  otherwise 


+0.290 


No 


No 


SMS  A  2 

Student 

R2  =  .05 
Logit  Equation: 

If,  P  =  Probability  of  attendance  for  a  particular  individual. 

Then,        Natural  logarithm  (P/l-P)  =     -  2.834  +  0.107(Income  2)  +  0.135(Income  3)  +  0.105(Income  4) 

+  0.298(Income  5)  +  0.312(Income  6)  -  0.007(Age)  -  0.339(Race  2) 
-  0.749(Race  3)  +  0.3 15(Gender)  +  0. 147  (Educational  Level) 
+  0.314(SMSA  1)  +  0.218(SMSA  2)  +  0.290(Student) 


55 


Acknowledgments 


I  would  like  to  thank  those  individuals  who  served  as  my  surrogate 
audience  by  reading  and  commenting  upon  drafts  of  this  monograph:  Harold 
Horowitz  and  Tom  Bradshaw  of  the  Research  Division  at  the  National 
Endowment  of  the  Arts,  as  well  as  the  staff  of  the  NEA  Museum  Program; 
Pam  Brusic,  former  Executive  Director  of  the  New  England  Museum 
Association;  Gary  Burger,  former  Director  of  the  Berkshire  Museum;  Janet 
Saleh  Dickson,  Curator  of  Education,  Yale  University  Art  Gallery;  and 
Professor  Joe  Ferreira,  Department  of  Urban  Studies  and  Planning,  Mas- 
sachusetts Institute  of  Technology.  They  have  forced  me  to  clarify  both  my 
thinking  and  my  presentation.  Thanks  also  to  my  colleagues  Augustin  Girard, 
Leif  Gouiedo,  and  Marie-Charlotte  de  Koninck  who  provided  me  with 
comparable  audience  statistics  for  France,  Sweden,  and  the  province  of 
Quebec.  Jun  Han  served  as  my  Research  Assistant  and  handled  the  intracies 
of  the  computer  programming  with  ease,  competence,  and  good  humor. 


56 


About  the  Author 


Dr.  J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster  is  the  Ida  and  Cecil  Green  Career 
Development  Associate  Professor  of  Urban  Studies  and  Planning  at  the 
Massachusetts  Institute  of  Technology  where  he  teaches  courses  on  quan- 
titative reasoning,  nonprofit  institutions,  and  environmental  design  policy. 
His  research  focuses  on  government  policy  vis-a-vis  the  arts,  culture,  and 
environmental  design.  He  has  written  widely  on  issues  of  cultural  policy  and 
is  author  of  Supporting  the  Arts:  An  International  Comparative  Study,  an 
analysis  of  arts  funding  patterns  in  eight  countries,  and  coauthor  with  Alan 
Feld  and  Michael  O'Hare  of  Patrons  Despite  Themselves:  Taxpayers  and 
Arts  Policy,  a  Twentieth  Century  Fund  Report  on  tax  incentives  for  the  arts. 
He  and  Milton  Cummings  are  editors  of  Who's  to  Pay  for  the  Arts?  The 
International  Search  for  Models  of  Arts  Support,  a  volume  in  the  American 
Council  for  the  Arts  Research  Seminar  Series.  He  is  a  coauthor  with  Judith 
Blau  of The  Geography  of  Participation  in  the  Arts  and  Government  Funding 
also  published  by  Seven  Locks  Press.  He  was  a  postdoctoral  fellow  in  the 
Research  Division  of  the  French  Ministry  of  Culture  under  the  auspices  of 
the  United  States-France  Exchange  of  Scientists.  More  recently,  he  was 
named  Fulbright  Scholar  and  Distinguished  Visitor  to  New  Zealand  under 
the  auspices  of  New  Zealand-United  States  Educational  Foundation  and  the 
Queen  Elizabeth  II  Arts  Council.  He  has  served  as  a  consultant  to  the  Arts 
Council  of  Great  Britain,  the  British  American  Arts  Association,  the  British 
Museum,  the  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts,  National  Public  Radio,  the 
American  Council  for  the  Arts,  the  Canada  Council,  the  Massachusetts 
Council  on  the  Arts  and  Humanities,  and  many  other  arts  and  cultural 
organizations. 


57 


Other  Publications  of  Interest 


Readers  of  this  report  may  wish  to  obtain  more  information  about  the  details 
of  the  study  and  about  related  research  projects  conducted  for  the  Research 
Division  of  the  National  Endowment  for  the  Arts.  The  following  reports  are 
available  at  libraries,  bookstores  or  from  their  publishers: 

Socialization  and  Participation  in  the  Arts 

Richard  J.  Orend 

Research  Division  Report  #21 

54  pages 

National  Endowment  for  the  Arts  (1989) 

Available  from  the  American  Council  on  the  Arts,  1285  Avenue  of  the 

Americas,  New  York,  NY  10019 

Who  Reads  Literature? 

Nicholas  Zill  &  Marianne  Winglee 
Research  Division  Report  #22 
104  pages,  0-932020-86-0 
Seven  Locks  Press  (1990)  $9.95 

Expanding  the  Audience  for  the  Performing  Arts 

Alan  R.  Andreason 
Research  Division  Report  #24 
64  pages,  0-929765-01-X 
Seven  Locks  Press  (1991)  $10.95 


In  addition  the  following  reports  are  available  through  the  Education 
Research  Information  Center  (ERIC)  system: 

Dan  Abreu,  ''Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts,  Musical  Theater, 
Operetta,  and  Opera  Attendees."  April  1,  1987,  ERIC  Identification  Number: 
ED  289  760. 

Carol  Keegan,  "Public  Participation  in  Classical  Ballet:  A  Special  Analysis  of 
the  Ballet  Data  Collected  in  the  1982  and  1985  Survey  of  Public  Participation  in 
the  Arts."  April  30,  1987.  ERIC  Identification  Number:  ED  288  756. 


59 


David  Waterman,  "Public  Participation  in  the  Arts  Via  the  Media."  September 
1987,  ERIC  Identification  Number:  ED  290  674. 

Jerry  West,  "Public  Participation  in  the  Arts:  Demands  and  Barriers."  ERIC 
Identification  Number:  ED  287  764. 

Harold  Horowitz,  "The  American  Jazz  Audience."  ERIC  Identification 
Number:  ED  280  757. 

John  Robinson,  et  a!.,  "Public  Participation  in  the  Arts:  Final  Report  of  the  1982 
Survey."  Survey  Research  Center,  University  of  Maryland,  January  1986.  ERIC 
Identification  Number:  ED  264  168. 

John  Robinson,  et  al.,  "Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts:  1985  Volume  I, 
Project  Report."  Survey  Research  Center,  University  of  Maryland,  March  1987. 
ERIC  Identification  Number:  ED  289  763. 

Judith  R.  Blau,  "The  Geography  of  Arts  Participation:  Report  on  the  1982  and 
1985  Surveys  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts.' '  March  1987.  ERIC  Identifica- 
tion Number:  ED  289  762. 

Paul  DiMaggio,  "Race,  Ethnicity  and  Participation  in  the  Arts:  Patterns  of  Par- 
ticipation by  Black,  Hispanic  and  White  Americans  in  Selected  Activities  from 
the  1982  and  1985  Surveys  of  Public  Participation  in  the  Arts."  June  1987.  ERIC 
Identification  Number:  ED  293  759. 

J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster,  "An  Inquiry  into  the  Geographic  Correlates  of 
Government  Arts  Funding."  ERIC  Identification  Number:  ED  298  023. 


The  documents  are  the  original  research  reports  as  prepared  by  the  investi- 
gators. They  contain  extensive  information  about  methods,  and  numerous  tables 
and  figures.  The  ERIC  collection  is  available  at  hundreds  of  libraries  in  the  United 
States  and  abroad,  as  well  as  "on-line"  from  computerized  information  services. 

Requests  for  information  about  the  purchase  of  microfiche  or  photocopies 
of  these  reports  should  be  sent  to:  ERIC  Document  Reproduction  Services, 
Consumer  Service,  P.O.  Box  190,  Arlington,  VA  22210. 


60 


The  Audience  for 
American  Art  Museums 


In  the  last  decade,  public  and  private  contributors  to 
the  arts  have  taken  as  part  of  their  mandate  to  increase  both 
the  number  and  the  diversity  of  people  who  are  exposed  to 
the  visual  arts.  Overall  attendance  figures  and  audience 
demographics  have  thus  become  increasingly  important  to 
museums. 

This  study  offers  a  series  of  profiles  of  the  audience 
for  American  art  museums  and  galleries  based  on  an  analysis 
of  data  from  the  1985  Survey  of  Public  Participation  in  the 
Arts  and  comparisons  with  several  other  sources. 


A  survey  report  by 

J.  Mark  Davidson  Schuster 

Massachusetts  Institute  of  Technology 


NATIONAL 

endowment 

forMthe 


S^r? 


ARTS 


Research  Division  Report  #23 


Seven  Locks  Press 

Washington,  D.C. 


78 


929"765 


06 


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