The Canadian census of 1871 [microform] : remarks on Mr. Harvey' s paper published in the February number of "The Canadian Monthly"

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THE

CANADIAN CENSUS OF 1871.

Remarks on Mr. Harvey's Paper published in the
February Mumber of " The; Canadian Monthly.''

An able titatiat, Mr. Block, has said, " a
" statistic established with no other pre
•' occupation than truth is not the statis-
'' tic having the best chance to escape
" attacks.'' The oificials engaged ia tlie
statisticsil work of the Cauiidian Census of
1871 have now had abundant opportunities
of experiencing tlie exactness ot Mr.
Block's honest, but rather humiliating
reflexion,

Mr. Hai'vey, whom 1 am now answering,
cannot take amiss that his strictures are
examined and that, in doing so, a few ot the
many misapprehensions and errors which
compose the elements of all the at'-icks
made on th ! Census are exposed. Long
before the Census was taken and even
before the system was adopted, some
newspapers had predicted that all would
be wrong fJid the result incorrect. Tliis
arose from the inner conviction that iiaa.-
gin-Ary anticipated Jigures, which had found
credit in the public mind and which had
been made the basis of many arguments
and expectations, would vanish betore the
evidence of the real facts. These wild ex-
pectations had been raised to such an
extent that ?.he probable population of the
Dominion for 1870 was set down, by some,
at the precise number of 4,707,751, which
estimate, nevertheless, was declared by
others to be ''rather below than above the.
actual figures.''^ Mr. Harvey's own figures
of the expected population amoimted to
about four million and a quarter, for the
feur provinces.

It was painful for the prophets and their
believers to bd struck by the fact that
the brilliant witioipations of an extraor-

ihnary increaxe of population, which have
I ;ow(ie(l new-spapers, reviews and almanacs
fi >r several years, were not realized ; in the
sime way that it is painful for an over
a,iuguine bu!^iness man to become acquaint-
ed with the fact that his speculations have
not turned sc profitable as he expected.
Noverihele&s, it is of paramount iraportiince
ibr tL e country, as it is for the merchant,
to know the truth as it is, and it wouid be
dangerous for both to allow themselves to
be deluded on points of such vital impor-
tance.

The same deception had partly overtaken
the people of the United States who were
pr.uiised, by cliarmlng ci\lculation3. a po-
pulation of 45,000.000 and even 50,000,000,
and great also whs the ilisappointment at
the announcement given by theliifct United
.States Census that the population was not
quit« 39,OtJO,O0O. Fortunately for our
iieighbors, they have had the good dispo-
sition to accept with dignity the unwel-
come truth. In answering the ably written
imd no doulit popular article of Mr. Har-
vey, I have, therefore, the unpopular 8id«
ot the question ; but, as I am certain that
i am, at the same time, on the side of
verity, 1 will, come what may, uphold it
in aa lew words as 1 am able,
the length of which, however, will
have to bear the increase of necessary
(quotations from the paper of my learned
adversary.

Mr, Harvey begins h;s criticism of the

Census of 1871 by the following words : —

" The CoiiHUJi of IHGl envc to Upijer uiid I ower
"Cauui'H, New Brunswick, aiid Nova Scotia,
" aboui. three million souls, and If these Provlnceci

I I

V

2

THE CANADIAN CENSUS OF 1871.

" liad contlnur ^ to Increase until iKTl, lus last as
"tlicy \vori> s.id to liiivc don': for tlip tt;n
"l)n;VoUins yciirs, tliey woiilil now luivi; iium-
"l)en>a lour millions luid a (juiirtur, Instoail '-f
"under tliri'c millions and a luilf. Tlie dltlcrenco
"between the anlicii)ated lif;iirc> and Uieiuitual
" Ntiilemont Ik sriive and the imhllc are a« steiulily
"denying the uciauivcy of llie recent, eensus,afl t!i(!
"<)tnciHlsareupUoldlugll. I ldcK!S not follow from
"the fact that the general (wpeetatlon has heen
"dlsapix)int<>d, lliat the oflicials are mistaken."

1 answer, that the ascertaining of the
population of a country is not a question
of anticipiitioa, expectation, induction,
comparison or of geometrical progression,
but one of evidence, to be obtained de cisu
and in silu by sworn witnesses, from house
to house, every individual being recorded
one by one, hf/ name, and in no other w.iy.
It is not a mattor of argument, but essen-
tially of fact.

The rate of increase of one period, in n
young country yet undergoing the proce?'
of colonization and traversed by migratory
currents, is no criterion whatever of the
rate of increase of the next period, '''he
population of Upper Canada was 465,357 in
1841, (end of thot year) as ascertained by
the census of that year ; it was 952,004 in
1851, (end ot the year) ; and 1,396,091 in
1861, (end of 18C0) showing a total in-
crease of 104 per cent for one decenniad,
and 46.00 ior the period next following ;
But as the second period was made, m
reality, oaly of nine years, the correct
statement is to say that the annual in-
crease was at the rate of 7 .42 during the
lirst, and 4.34 during the second period.

This example shows the fallaicy of cal-
culations based on a mere regular geome-
trical progression, made to anticipate the |
knowledge of a fact which still lies under '
the veil of futuritv, and of which the mul-
tifarious influencing causes, such as the i
action of density, of migrations, <tc., <kc ,
are quite in rebellion to the laws of ma-
ihematics. l

Therefore, ' between the anticipated figures
and the actual statement,''^ there is simply
the diii'erence that exists between falla-
cious calculations and an ascertained nu-
merical fact.

Mr. Harvey a little further on says :

" The Census of ISiil was taken in one day ; and
" tne de facto iwpulaiion, that is, tlio p<:>palation
"actually there, was assigned to 'ach house, vil-
" lagc, eounly, city"

This is what is asserted and copied and
made an argument of, sufficient (however
irrelevant tc any reasoning) to delude the
prejudice! portion of the public; but what
are the facts ? The Census of 1 861 was not
taken ii; one day, nor in two weeks, but
although much less extensive, took as
many weeks to complete as the Census of
1871". 1 1 was not tiiken under either of
the twouystems (the,d«jureor the dt facto) ;

but without system, and made to include
both the7))V"-v;i^and absent of every family ;
thereby making a double entry of idl the
ductuating population, travelleis, school -
ars, inmates of public institutions, lumber-
men in the forest, &c . (fee, who were all
counted twice, iirst where found and second
with their families at home, all that in
addition to foreigners happening to be, for
the time biing, present at some place in
the country.

That the Census of 1861 gives a some-
what exaggorited figure is a fact that
never was doubted by thosfl who have had
opportunities of studying the proceedings
ot that Census, for the simple reason that
the prool of the double entries exists on
the very face of the schedules and in no
concealed form. The same proportionate
exaggeration, i)y making use ot precisely
the same proceeding, was made in the
Census ol 1851. It follows that the
enormous increase, heretofore signalized
for the period 1841-51 (although widely
dirtering from the next following) con-
tains an iiuportaut error, and that the
falling off in the ratio of increase for the
decenniad 1861-71 (although in reality
very large) is not, by a notable figure, so
large as is made apparent by comparing
the reiiurns of the two last censuses,

lar. Harvey enters into rv rather over-
philosophical examination of the systems
of Census takmg, in whioh^ the systena de
Jure is represented as a sequence of the
"Roman jurisprudence. ... which mysti-
" fieslhe unwary litigant," and the system
dcfiwto as following the "Common Law
" ideas and whatever is most practical :"of
uU of whicli Mr. Harvey concludes f^hat
the byatt-mdejure is "cognate" lo the latin
jieople." and '[foieuju' to the Teuton. I shall
not tvater into any discussion of such
transcandeutal uatuie, being rather inclin-
ed to restrict myself to facts and to argu-
ments derived therefrom. The facta
are, that there is no discrimiiation as to
tlie races which have adopted one of the
two above rnentioned systems. There are
latin peoples who have preserved the tra-
ditional system de jure, and there are latin
peoples who have adopted the comparativ-
ely recent system of de facto, and so it is
with tho Teutonic races. Two exanrplea
will suffice to show the error into wnich
^Ir. Harvey has fallen, just in comf-
quence of relying entirely on the use an4
the abu.se of the method of induction in
relation to pure matters of fact. The
largest latin agglomeration, France has,
for some time, adopted the system de facto
for the quinquennial enumeration of her
pooplo. The largest English speaking
agglomeration, both in point of population

IP

BH

THE CANADIAN CENSUS OF 1B71.

8

linolude
[family ;

ill the
I school --
luInber•
cere all
second
Ithat in

be, for
)lace in

so

and territory, the United States are ma! .
ing .ie of tlie system dcjure: in this
respect their manual of instructions, for
their Census of 1870 is similar fo ou" own
manual of 187J .

I hope till, henceforward, Mr. Harvey
will bec;oine convini!iMi th.it the adoption
of the f/fi, /'(/ye system. inUiiiiMda. is not. dim
to the fact that Mr. DunKin is a 'Quebec
lawyer learneil in the roiuan Juiispru-
dence'' and M.rTache '-a French (.'anadian
piir samj."

Mr. Ilarvey elewhere says :

" Mast of tlii> clKH'ks, liowevi'r, wliit-h hnvp
" Ix't'ti iipiilioil, linv(' .•■lii'Wii ilio (.'oiihiis ;:'.:iirrs to
"be nil \iiKlfi' stiit'.'mfiit, iis indood irmn tbo
" nutiire ol' Llio de j'ltrf; priiiciijl;! iipnliod l>y
" nDtraiued iiioii, tliey nro pretty sure iu'l)t'.''

Without attaching more importnrce to
these so called checks, which are very
much inferior, in character and reliibility,
to a regular census, such as they are, they
have been the. reverse of what l\h: Harvey
asserts them to h ive been. Tlie munici-
pal enumerations of Ontario (there are
none in the other Provinces) t.ikoii few
week) before thfi census day. show loss
numbers of population, and in most cases
considerably so Amongst the many of
which I have myself compared the figures,
there is only ont o.xcei'tiou, and only
amounting to a triflinu; difteren<.e of less
than one per cent in a small locality.

I have so fai heard of only two enumo- i
rations tuken, since the puilicition of the !
census figures : and Wda under precon-
ceived ideas and with the ivowed pur
pose of showing the Census at fault. In
Ontario the town of St. Mary's has had
one taken, which is a confirm i; ion of the
Census, inasmuch as tli^ Census gave to
that locality 3120 souls, and the special
enumeralioii 3178, nine months after date.
In Quebec, the frontier town of St. Johns
has had an enumeration, tsiken without
names or anyotht'i'iiu-. us of control which
has given a ponulation sever.il hundifds
in excess of the (Jensus, out ci' 3'J22 inha-
bitants, a clear indie iti'..i that the, check
was rather overdono. This cise falls under
the applicatiuu uf the ma::im of universal
wisdom, whi^'b si,-.-j; " Who pruve.s too
much proves notning."

1 repeat tint there is no guarantees
whatever in .'^Moh check enumerations,
taken ! y agents not legally responsible,
under .sf^ctionnal influences, at work,
amongst a population, at the time rtCtuated
by au intense spirit of locality and .ilmosit
pledged to procure a liigher figure than
the Census. It is plam that to obtain a
correct enumeration in such circumstances
is a chaine not to be expected once in
many times : che'^iks of that sort
are to be received not with o grain but

withabush?! of s'llt. It would be indeed
a remarkable stall' of municipal officers,
and a remarkable community that would,
in America specially, keep its equanimity
of mind and delicacy of conscience under
such a pressure, in the absence of the ne-
oes-rary precautions appertaining to this
kind of work. Apart from all that, an enu-
meration made without writing in the
nime of every person is admit ted to bo, by
all authorities, under all circumstance-', a
questionable piece of staiistics, as it allows
of little or no control and opens the door
to all sorts of eiiors.
Mr. Ilarvey, elsewhere, says :

" Jfova .'^ootin lias had u rnslstratioii system in
" opeiittiou for sunie i't-urs, more or less otflcient,
" and the sontlomaii who hns liacl charge of It
" has boon attnclied to the Cniisus StafK Honci!,
" tlmt Provlnco hr.s. In iill likelihood, tlio mont
" eoinplet^' eiuuneiatloii, andcoiisi queiitly gains.
■'The other I'ro.liicos liavc not had thls.| great
" advdiiuisfe."

Tills is certainly an ingenious theoretical
explanation of the higher r.atio of increase
reported for Nova Scotia ; but the facts,
the unyielding facts, unfortunately again
set their stubborn argument against the
conclusions arrived at. The registiation
system in Nova Scotia, with the exception
of what concerns the city of Halifax, i.s
still in its infancy, and has noo yet, and
could not nave, despite the efforts of the
zealous official who is at the head of the
Statistical Office there, reached a point
even approaching approximation; while
the Province of Quebec, where the ratio
of increase has been the smallest of the
four, has, for the eleven twelfths of its
population, as perfect a ey.item of regis-
tration as the very best in Europe, and
that from the very beginning of its colo-
nization ; so much so that the ancestry of
the poorest Catholic laborer in Quebec,
cjin be traced to the first of his name who
immigrated to Canada.

Besides, the registration of births, mar-
riages anl doiths is a thing quite separate
^'nd distinct, in every particular, from the
process of taking a census.

The registration office, when organized,
.,s it is in Iingland, for instance, may
renier the preliminary labor of preparing, 1^
and the ultimate labor of compiling the
returns more e isy to the head office, by
making use of an already trained nume-
rous pernonnel of registrars, deputy regis-
trars, and registration clerks, which, how-
ever, has not been the case in Nova
Scotia.

The fact of the matter is that the cen-
sus of Nova Scotia is neither better nor
worso than tlie census of the other
Provinces ; the same system was applied
to all, the same precautions taken, the

THE CANADIAN OENSUS OF 1871.

'^ ■' ':

personnel chosen in tho same manner,
the prehminnry instruction, both l)y books
and oral teaching, imparteci in the sume
way, and the samo processes oi verification
resorted to. For those vho are actjualnt ■
ed with the proceeding^t of the last census,
the supposition I am refuting .'ind tlie con-
clusion derived therefrom are simply lu-
dicrous.

Mr. Harvoy a little furiher, when at-
tiicking the de jure system, says .

" In this) cnnnoetion wo should consldfi' thiu, !'
" th<^ de Jure H.v.su>ni wmks injustice! anywhero h
" is in ttie towns and (;ltio.«. Tim Inivcllpi-s st;iy-
" iii>t at liotols, tlio jounK lnds mI ."clicois iiiiil
" bmrdintj h'.uises, the sprvant^ in famillcs—jvH
"these are reforrod tr) their liouns, wliic i an;
"chii'ti.vin tlio conntry, wlillo foroifiiiors pH.ssiuK
"tlirouuli thfi Dominion whoaie not ennnicrnKHl
"at all, are almost altogether la cities ;iiiil

" tOWllK."

Speaking of irjustice. becuise tho tra-
vellers and foreigners are not added in,
as part of any population, to which they
are of course perft ct .stranger.s. is ratlier
a serious mi»apprehen.sion of the idea o.
right.

What is the object of an enumeration
of the population of a country ? Is it tlie
me.e childish vain desire of crow ling the
largest possible ligures on paper,? Is it
not, on the contrary, for the honest and
reasonable purpose of knowing the real
strength, or the weakness of the agglome-
ration and of every portion tiiereof ; of
knowing the relative proportion of st'xr>.a,
ages, <fec., (fee. ; is it not to ascertain wh^.t
are the elements of vigor or of ieoble-
nee^, and where, ;\nd how they are in ex->
ist«nce, in order to divulge the causes and
suggest future invigorating or curative ac-
tion ? If, to the r<?al popalation of a
frontier town were added (as ,- local opes
ration has done) the lew hundreds, trav-
ellers, strangers and foreigners, who gather
there, will it be a gieater producer or con-
sumer, or a greater bulwark a lahist invi-
sion? Might it not, on the contrary, mislead
'the administration and induce tlie eountry
to cilculate upon a fictitious .'itn^nath. and
to count .as contributois to ihe resources
of the country or as defenders of th'^' soil,
a number of men actu dly .arrayed agRinst
its interests or peace ; men, whose first
movement, on an emergency, would be to
return to their legitimate quartors ?

When the de/ac/o system 'nhonafide put
into practice, the difterenco as a whole, in
the result is quite insignificant one way or
tlie other. Where adopted it is not be-
cause it is apt to show a iarger figure (an
argument which no statist would venture
oUering) but because it is argued that it
Bimplilies the proceedings and that the omis-
sion of the number of the temporaiyalHent
is made up by the temporary present be-

ing counted, or in the wordj of the HegiS'
trar General of England : ^* Foreigners arc a
net ojy 0 gains I the number of Knglishmen
abroad." Therefore, such statists as are
longing for a system iu increase the figures
and make them look more reftpcdable must
lay .nside the de facto as well as the dejure,
to take up the superb system of 1851 and
1861 of counting both hands and both
ways, which syptem, however well imagin-
ed for the purpose, is yet quite inade-
quate to reach the " anticipated figures.''

'\ he mere fact that a Census has been
taken under one or other of the two sys-
tems cannot be argued against the correct-
ness of the result. The two systems have
their advocates, and are both practiced ;
(.either of them is a dogma of salvation ;
neither of them the n bomination of sin.
< )ne may be better adapted than the other
to given circumstances. 'I he de jure sy.s-
tern has been resorted to. both by the
United States and the Canadian authori-
ties, as being the better in view of the
circumstances of special difficulties of or-
ganization, of the immense extent of ter-
ritories and of federal politic ' in-titutions.
It h IB the immense advantage that it does
not necessitate the very great haste which
is a n itural sequence of the adoption of
the de. facto system.

In connection with thi^. it is well, how-
ever, to remark that an idea, which has
l)eet\ prevalent and urged as a kind of by-
word of criticism, is that the census of a large
community, .as of a vast extent of country,
can f>e done in one day, and its results
published within a week. It is, however,
({uile erroneous. But even if such ex-
l)edition were possible, it would be of no
decided advantage, in ordinary circum-
stances, and certainly no panacea against
errors- Mr. H.arvey himself gives a very
good reason why, we in Canada, should not
sacrifice to the impatient desire of being
very fast, when he says, speaking of the
diihouUies existing in statistical enquiries
and census takin..; m America: " Buiies
which of cdl others require mosi training and
most .special study, are thus of necessity
placed in the hands of unskilled, uniraiied
and hastilji appointed persons." Is it not
then plain that to adopt a system which
necessitates ten times as many officers and
enumerators, and which requires the most
haste, would be addiug to the difficulties
and chances of errors to a very great ex-
tent, if not in a proportionate ratio?

There has been a falling oS in thi ratio
of incroa e of our population during the
la?t decenniad, and although the extent
of it could not have been surmised before
Uie actual taking of the census, still, men
who had spent some time in analyxing the

THE CANADIAN OSNflUS OF 1871.

the Eegig.
'igners arc a
h'nffliahmen
lists as are
/he figures
table must
the dejure,
if 1851 and
Is and both
'ell imagin-
buite inade-
\djtgtires.''
8 has been
he two sys-
|the correct-
stems have
practiced ;
salvation ;
ation of sin.
m the other
df. Ju7-e sys-
oth by tlie
an authori-
view of the
ijities of or-
Ltent of ter-
iD-ititutions.
that it does
haste which
adoption of

i well, how-
., which has
kind of by-
3U3ofalarge
i of country,
i its results
s, however,
f such ex-
Id be of no
iry circum-
cea against
ives a very
, should not
■e of being
king of the
.1 enquiries
a: " DuUcs
training and
of necessity
I, uniraiied
Is it not
item which
ofticers and
es the most
difficulties
' great ex-
ratio ?
a thi ratio
during the
the extent
ised before
I, still, men
aly&Dg the

movements of our population were pre-
pared for a result which has taken by
entire surprise a large portion of our
public, laboring under the delusions of
the 'anticipated figures.

The statement of the facts revealed
by the census is easily suHtained by the
argument derived from notorious con-
comitant events. With tha exception of
the three last seasons (only two appertain-
ing to the last decenniad) the immigra-
tion permanently settling in the country
has been, for many years past, compara
tively a mere nothing, at the same time
tliat a considerable emigration was going
out from all iiarts of our four Provinces,
but more especially from the Province of
Quebec. That emigraton towards
the United States, already be-
gun during the previous decades,
h&b ^K'len intensified during tht>i last one.
An im>'i:ense vacuum in the 1 ibor market
had beei) created, during that period, in the
midst of tht able l)Odied mde population
of the neighbouring Republic, t)y several
years of a fierce civil war, and the coinci-
dent fact of ti.e abolition of compul-
sory slave labour. The call to fill up came
under the double fo-m of plenty to do
and high wages. Ourc >raparati»rely small
population furnished, i; could not be
otherwise expectiid, a luge part of the
filling, thereby causing an absolute
diminution oi tlui population, and a
proportionate diminution in the ratio
of increase of our people. To remain
blind to the light of such a plain explana-
tion of the results ascert tined, supported
by such a broad notorious fact, wou,d cer-
tainly indicate a very unhealthy state of
the public mind .

The reflecting mind of Mr. Hflrvey, not
withstandmg that he impugns the accu»--
acyofthe census on mere .suppositions,
is in spite of himself drawi. to deal with
the fact of a diminution in the rate oT in-
crease of our population :— for those
who are accustomed to analyse the Human
mind and the association of ideas, it is a
decisive proof that Mr. Harvey is, in reili-
ty, and at the bottom of his 'oul, more
convinced of the accuracy of the census
than he has made himself aware of. He
says:

" there seems to br ,i point at which po])ulation
" in the old countloH ~top.<, and it is i)i'obnbly
" rea<:hed when tbero arc tin many )>eoiilefurmlnK
"the land a.s can profiuibl.v do ho by their own
" labour, and without (Uipl.yhi':; capital in undcr-
" drainlug, sub-soli pi ngliiuar, or artlliclai man-
''iirea. I.i the present sitate of the lioiuinent,
" wltJi new (and." within easy reacli, it po.ssibly
" payB the fJirnigr botter to send 111-: t^nnn away
"to seek them tlui • to ^strive to inci'ca.'se his
" crops by applying i-cience and oapltivl to the old
" farm. That it does so ha.s evlcfently become
"the prevaiBng belief."

There ia no doubt a great weight, ft very
great weight, in the ably stated reoutrks
above quoted ; but, — the conclusion
which logicidly follows these premises, is
that a diminution in the ratio of increase
of our population becomes a matter of
oour»e, to an extent commensurate with
this cause added m the other forces at
work in creating and maintaining the
existing current of emigration.

Further, Mr. Harvey i«;fB:--

" Have tlio farming laniis b<>en too much subdi-
" xlded ?— anc' is a I'lenrlng out process coniiiienc-
" In;; naturally, like that which was carried cit
" forcibly in theS'ioltlsli HlKlam>, whore In order
" to gflt the best returns, the landlords made the
" eott,er.s leave their small farms and seek new
"ones In another <ountry? If It ha.':— and If the
" limit of iv>pulatlon has been reached, tliat can
"by the system of farming in vogue in t^uebec
" and ontiuio tjo well supjjoru^d, it is quite clear
" whither the surplus ^wpulation of txjtii Provln-
" (!es m ust flow . It, will go northward only by de-
"greoH, though when it do>s pass the Laurentlttn
" ridgt'K, and get cstnhllshod on the clay soils
" north of them, It may till up another tier of
"comities yet. It will keep, if not on the same
" parallel of latitude as near to it as possl-
"ble; emigration movements always da
" It will keep on the zone of similar
" vegetation, it may, fo- aught we know,
" have already largely sweii>?d the population cf
" Mitme.sotiv, Wisconsin and part of Michigan.
"Some of U may have been seduced to Illinois
" and Iowa, but the Canadian seldom stays there
"long. It will, If facilities are provided, rather
" remain under the old institutions, and we shall
"find that When a railway Is f'on.structed it will
" s(>ek the Nortii \Vest(;rn TeiTltorles— and pro-
'■ bably get as far westwani as it can on the As-
" slniboino and the soutli .Saskatchewan to e.«cape
" the o.\treme co'd of the Rc<f River Country:"

Again these reflections and devices, to
counteract er make up for a dehcienoy
(which was not made an element of the
anticipate! figures, but which the actual
enumeration was sure to meet), go io the
whole length of supporting the acctiracy
of the Census.

Without dwelling on the aphorisms of
Emigration propounded in the above quot-
ed paragraph which assumes that Emigra-
tion '• will not go southward, that it will
" keep if not on the same parallel of lati-
" tude, as near to it as possible, that it
" will rather remain under the old institu-
" tions." I cannot avoid expressing my
firm belief in the facts that migratory
currents will often times go southward,
that they will go to some distance and
even far a way from any given parallel of
lati'^ude and to very different institutions.

Mr. Harvey concludes one part of his

remarks by the following reflection :

" Without a steady Intiu.x from Europe or A.<iia,
" are we like the old temple and mound builders,
" our predecessors on this continent, doomed to
"ultimate extinction'.'"

Evidently this is taking a more gloomy

aspect of things than necessary. Even at

the rate of an annual increase of one per

cent, there is no threatening of annihUa-

tion : it is about the rate of inorMM of

/

' '"1,1 '

t6

'THE CANADIAN CENSUS OF 1871.

r"-^"

England and Wales, where tlie Immigra-
tion from Ireland has l)een, for msitiy ypars
past, greater than tlie Emigration from
England ; so much so that there are now
more Irishmen in Lon'ton th m in Dublin.
Tb<^re are other circumstances il-. ol'a
cnnt>oling nature : the Emigraticn to the
United ^States seems to have passed its
olimax and a leaction is now taking plitce
and will probably continue us long as the
ratf of w.'iges finds it-* ordinary level and
the emigrating mania is curing itself. Thp
fecundity of our families, on thft whole, 's
not impaired and the Europo.nn Emigra-
tion, for the last three years, seems to take
a mora favorable view of the advantiiges
offered by our country, in all its parts, for
immigrants. Therefore, let us not be
despondent, but let us at the same time
avoid being deluded. We cannot be in a
moment as big as some of our over sanguine
fellow subjects were expecting, but let us
try to be naturally as big as we can safely
be.

Mr. Harvey, after having opposed sup-
positions to the Census, says :

" If live I XT cent, of tlic |K)i)iilution <>( Qiu'Ik'c
."haw l.c'Dii omlt/eU, imtl eiglit f thai of New
.'"Briir).s\vick uiui (iiitario, tlio .idUltioiiiil tliri'c
"bimdrort thonsaiid, which It is Ihouslilu conwt
■''•o!i:inu;ralioii •<-oakl alloti lo us, would make
',*Htxi.s total more respoctabli-.''

'- Let it not fie lost sight of that no earth-
ly being can have any knowledge of those
supposed errors of the Census, which are
purely drawn from imagination, for the
simple reason that no philosopher can
have any intuitive idea of such a thing,
that no statist his any means of discover-
ing it by induction, that no mathemi\tioian
can put it to .any possible test of calcula-
tion. The facts are, 1st, thai, the Census
18 the legal, legitimate enquiry, performed
under an approved and tried system by
the constituted authority, with the help of
12 supervising offi' ers, 206 directing and
revising commissioners, and ne uly 3,000
enumerators, nil educated beforehand for
that purpose, all sworn at the beginning
and the end of their work, and each one
acting for the NPClioii of country best
known to him, in which he is interested
and for which his affection is most ini«nse -,
2nd, that the returns, in the whole, show
an increase of about 1.00 annually: 3rd,
that the Province of Quebec is the only
one of the four enumerated whose increase
is reported to have fallen below the aver-
age of 1.00 ; 4th, that the bulk of the po-
pulation of that Province of Quebec is
renowned for its extraordinary fecundity,
which Mr. Harvey himself picturesquely
acknowledges in the following words : —
'■'almost every home looks like a rabbit warren
ijorpwng."

\ The logical, the natund conclusions
would therofore be that the Census is as
I correct as any operation of the kind, under
I the circumstances of the country, can
I reasonably be «'Xpected to be, and that, if
there had been errors of omission, the
j Province of tjuebec i-t that in which they

would most lik'dy have taken place.
: rii*' oontiiiry conclusions, upon such re-
I cord, seem to me very much like the sen-
I teace of a certain magistrate, who is said
to have decided a case as follows : — 'The
I " evidence is to mo very unsatisfactory
."indeed: as it is its weight would seem
! " to go in favor of Flanagan, but as the
'• said Fian.'igan has red hair, I feel that
" the ends of justice will be better attained
" in giving judgement in favor ol Jones
"for half tlie sum, Flanagan paying the
" costs."
1 am glad before closing this paper to be
, al/le to agree in the views and opinions of
i Mr. Harvey on one point, at all events,
I namely the important subject of vital sta
tiatics. Nothing can be more correct than
the statement that recording marriages,
births ami deaths cannot be done, even
with approximate accuracy, in the taking
of a Census. This is essentially a matter
of day to day registration. The Catholic
population of the Province of Quebec is
possessed of such registration, from the
earliest time of the colony, and a more
complete, uselul and interesting .'ecord
can hardly be imagined. Apart from its
social utility, 1 would be inclined to say
necessity, it constitutes an important and
especially atti*active statistical page, not
only !»s regards Canada, but also as con-
cerning the science itself, as being the
orily record in existence which goes back
without intrrmption and in all its details
for tvfo centuries and a half, giving the
entire family history of a whole population
from its very first origin.

Ihe immense statistical labor, as com-
pared with the small lorce eiiployed at it,
which has been quietly but incessantly
carried on in the Department of Agricul-
ture since 1864, is now nearly completed.
From the long list of the yearly registra-
tion of the movements of the Catholic po-
pulation ot the Province of Quebec, (to
which are added the abstracts of all the
Onsupes overtaken in the four Provinces)
we gather that the total number ol Catho-
lic marri'igcs since the time of Champlain
(loJcii ij t'.ie ye^ir 18T0 inclusive, has been
373,146, thnt the total number of births
has been 2,2,-ii,lii~ and that the total
number of deaths has been 1,060,760.
This shows a grand total of excess of births
over the number of deaths amounting to
1|183,557| including m||„the Fxengh (^-

'':«
I

■ip"'^

THE CANADIAN CENSUS OF 1871.

i

arlian, the English speaking Hnd other
CatholicB of the I'rovince of Quebec.

If there had been no Emigration from
Queboc at any time, the Catholic popula-
tion of that I'rovince would have been at
the end of 1870 (the Censu.'* year) 1, 183,-
557, plus a number equal to the grand
totrl hgure of the Catholic immigration
from the beguming.

But thera was a comparatively consider-
able Catholic emigration fiom Quebec to
Louisiana, Michi^ien. other parts in the
weat and elsewliore, during the time of the
French domination and since the cession
of Canada to England. That. Catholic
Emigration from Quebec went on, at an
increasing rate, from year to year, since
the years 1837 and 1838, till the very end
of the decenniad 1860-70, at which time
it seems to have entered in a period of
some decrease.

By making use from the beginning of
the births and deaths tables already men-
tioned, and of the figures representing,
from time to time, the number of Catho-
lie immigrants arrived in C>uei)ec. the de-
ficit indicated, from year to year, from the
grand result of the excess of births ovei
deaths, plus the immigration, would repre-
sent the actual number of emigrants who
have left the country ; to wliich the natu-
ral increase of the said Emigration abioad
must be found and added to make up the
grand total lost from both sources. The
numbers to be got by comparative oalcula
tion, the errors incident to the
recording of all statistics and the small
amount of increase or deficit arising from
other causes would not materially alter the
result, the possible maximum (.f error
being insignificant as compared with the
large and exactly ascertained figures. I
hbve just written so much to show what

an inside view of the movements of our
people may be obUuned by these records,
the study of which explains the large de-
ficit which of late years has taken place in
the increase of our Quebec population. Thia
argues the accuracy of the '>i8U8, inas-
much as the result of deficit, adu d to the
Census figures, reaches at near as can be
the former normal rate of increoM. I
am not of course now at liberty to anti
pate the publication of the details.

If the results of the most carefully taken
Census ever attempted in Canada, lo^i^'y
supported by the notorious facts of coin-
cident events concerning the movementa
of our population, and sustained by the
records of the past, cannot obtain credence
at this moment, they will in time to come.
The triumph of truth over delusion,
popular infatuation and local prejudices, if
retarded, cannot be for ever prevented.

As n. last word, may 1 be allowed to re-
mark that it matters very little whether
returns of a Census are published a few
months sooner or later, but the essential
point its, on the contrary, that time should
beftaken to have them caref'illy prepared
and made as accurate as possible. UtatLt-
tics are to last for ever, and, therefore,
ought to be a work of patience and care
not to be compromised by undue
haste. Very few men appreciate the
amount of labor necessary to complete
work of this kind ; Mr. llarvey does ap-
preciate it, in a friendly and gentlemanly
manner anc) I thank him for that. It is a
common complaint in Europe that the
harrassment, to wliich othcial statists are
subjected from the craving for news, is
one of the m.^st fatal causes th it retards
thfe progress of the science and endangers
the results of statistical labours.

J. C. TACUE.

?,: ,

;

.. ta*:

I I