N
THE
DOCTRINE
O F
CHANCES:
O R,
A Method of Calculating the Probabilities
of Events in Play.
THE THIRD EDITION,
Fuller, Clearer, and more CerreSl than the Former.
By A. D E M O I V R E,
Fellow of the Royal Society, and Member of the Royal Academies
OF Sciences of Berlin and Paris.
LONDON:
Printed for A. Millar, in the S^ra^d.
MDCCLVI,
q n D m Q n a u a u q
To the Right Honourable the
Lord CARP ENTER.*
MY LORD,
HERE are many People in the World
who arc prepoffefled with an Opinion,
that the Dodrine of Chances has a Ten
dency to promote Play; but they foon
will be undeceived, if they think fit to
look into the general Defign of this
Book : in the mean time it will not be improper to in
form them, that your Lordfhip is pleafed to efpoufe the
Patronage of this fecond Edition; which your ftiidl Pro
bity, and the diftinguifhed Charader you bear in the
World, would not have permitted, were not theii' Ap
prehenfions altogether groundlefs,
* Tliis Dedication was prefixed to the 2d Edition.
Your
880G';'li
DEDICATION.
Your Lordfhip does eafily perceive, that this Dodlrine
is fo far from encouraging Play, that it is rather a Guard
againft it, by fctting in a clear Light, the Advantages and
Difad vantages ofthofe Games wherein Chance is concerned.
Befides the Endowments of the Mind which you have
in common with Thofe w^hofe natural Talents have been
cultivated by the beft Education, you have this particular
Happinefs, that you underftand, in an eminent Degree, the
Principles of Political Arithmetic, the Nature of our Funds,
the National Credit, and its Influence on public Affairs.
As one Branch of this ufeful Knowledge extends to the
Valuation of Annuities founded on the Contingencies of
Life, and that I have made it my particular Care to facili
tate and improve the Rules I have formerly given on that
Subjeft ; I flatter mylclf with a favourable Acceptance of
what is now, with the gr^atefl: Deference, fubmitted to
your Judgment, by,
My Lord,
Your Lord/hlfs
Moft Obedient and
Mojl Obliged,
Humble Servant,
A. de Moivre.
J %>:# %*^ %I# ir» %I# %*a^ %*# I
^ "a^cf* *a*d?* ns'^tf' «^* ~i^tf' a^cT' ;>^<j ofa
(*ocJoo&oi!S3o*c5ooSoo5ooto
PREFACE
5F~»~^75 wo TO ^^flw/ ^^ip^w 2>^n, fince I gave a SpecimeJi in the
I Philofophical Tranladtions, of what I now more largely
I treat of in this Book. I'be occafion of my then undertaking
^^ this SubjeSi was chiejly oicitig to the Defire and Rncourage
ment of the Honourable 'f Francis Robartes Efq; ivho, upon occapon of a
French Tra5i, called, L'Analyl'e des Jcux de Hazard, ivhich had lately
been publijhed^ ivas pleafed to propofe to me fame Problems of much greater
difficulty than any he had Jound in that Book ; which having fohed to
his SatisfaStion, he engaged me to methodize thofe Problems, and to lay
down the Rules which had led me to their Solution. After I had pro
ceeded thus far, it was enjoined me by the Royal Society, to communicate
to them what I had dif covered on this SubjeSl : a fid thereupon it was or
dered to be publijhed in the TranJaSiiotis, not fo much as a matter relating
to Play, but as containing fome gefieral Speculations not unxorthy to be
confidered by the hovers of Truth.
I had not at that time read any thing concerning this SubjcSi, but
Mr. Huygen'i Book de Ratiociniis in Ludo Ales, atjd a Utile E?igliJ}}
Piece (which was properly a Tranfation oj it) done by a very ingenious
Gentleman, who, tho' capable of carrying the tnatter a great deal far
ther, was contented to follow his Original ; adding only to it the com
putation of the Advajjtage of the Setter in the Play called Hazard, and
fome few things more. As for the French Book, I had run it over but
curforily, by reafon I had obferved that the Author chiefly injijied on
* This Preface was wrttttn in 1717. + Now Earl o/KADtiOR.
the
ii PREFACE.
the Method cf Huygens, ivhich I was abfolutely rcfohed to rejeSi^ as
not feeming to me to be the geriuine and natural ivay ^f coming at the So
lution of Prcblems of this kind.
I had [aid in my Specimen, that Mr. Huygens iioas the Jirft who
had publifjed the Rules of this Calculation, i>2t ending thereby io do jufiice
to a Man ivho had ivell deferved cf the Public; but what I then faid
lias mi/ivterpreted, as if I had dejigned to urong fome Perfons who
bad ccnfdered this matter before him : and a Pafjage was cited againjl
me out of Huygcn'i Preface, in which he faith. Sciendum vero quod
iam pridem, inter Praeftantiflimos tota Gallia Geometras, Calculus
hie fuerit agitatus ; ne quis indebitam mihi primae Invcntionis glo
riani hac in re tribuat. But what follows immediately after, had it
been minded, might have cleared me from any Sufpicion oj injuftice.
'The words are thefe, Casterum illi difficillimis quibufque Quseftionibus
fe invicem exercere foliti, methodum fuam quifque occultam reti
nuere, adeo ut a prim is dementis hanc materiam evolvere mihi
necefie fuerit. By which it appears, that tho' Mr. Huygens was not
the fifl who had applied himfelfto tkofe forts of ^efiions, he was ne
"jerthelefs the firfi who had publified Rules for their Solution ; which is
all that I ajirmed.
^ Such a 7ra6l as this is may be ufeful to feveral ends; the firfl of
which is, that there being in the World feveral inquifitive Perfons,
who are defirous to know what foundation they go upon, when they
engage in Play, whether from a motive of Gain, or barely Diver
jion, thy may, by the help of this or the like TraB, gratijy their CU'
riofity, either by taking the pains to underftand what is here Demofi
ftrated, or el/e making ife of the Conclufions, and taking it for granted
that the Demonftrations are right.
Another ufe to be made of this DoSirim of Chances is, that it
may Jerve i): Conjun^ion with the other farts oJ the Mathematicks,
as a ft Introduction to the Art of Rcafoning; it being known by
experience that nothing can contribute more to the attaining of that
Art, than the con [deration of a long Train of Confequences, rightly
deduced from undoubted Principles, of which this Book affords many
Examples. To this may be added, that fome of the Problems about
Chance having a great appearance of Simplicity, the Mind is eafdy drawn
into a belief, that their Solution may be attained by the meer Strength
of natural good Se?fe; which generally proving otherwife, and the Mif
takes occafioned thereby being not ui frequent, 'tis pre fumed that a Book
of this Kind, which teaches to djftinguifh Truth from what feems
fo nearly to refemble it, will be looked upon as a help to good Rea
Jbning.
Among
PREFACE. iii
Among the fe^oeral Mijlakes that are committed about Chance, one
of the mojl common and leaft JufpeSied^ is that "which relates to Lotteries.
^hus, Juppofing a Lottery wherein the proportion of the Blanks to the
Prizes is as fiiie to one ; 'tis very natural to conclude, that therefore five
Tickets are requifite for the Chance of a Prize ; and yet it may be proved,
Demofijlratively, that four Tickets are more than Jufficient for that pur
pofe, which will be confirmed by often repeated Experience. In the like
manner, fuppofmg a Lottery nvherein the proportion of the Blanks to the
Prizes is as Thirty nine to One, (fuch as was the L',ttery of 1710^
it may be proved, that in twenty eight Tickets, a Prize is as likely to
be taken as mt ; iihich tho' it mayfeem to contradiB the common NutionSy
is mverthelefi grounded upon injallible Demcnffration.
When the Play of the Royal Oak was in ufe, fome Perfons who lojl
confiderably by it, had their Lcjjes chiefly occafioned by an Argument of
nifnch they could 7iot perceive the Fallacy. The Odds againfi any par
ticular Point of the Ball were One and Thirty to One, which intitled
the Adventurers, in cafe they were winners, to have thirty two Stakes
returned, including their own ; injlead of which they having but Eight
and Twenty, it was very plain that on the /ingle account of the di fad
vantage of the Play, they loji one eighth part of all the Money they ' layed
for. But the Mafler of the Ball maintained that they had no reafon to
complain; fince he woidd undertake that any particular point of the Ball
f}.^ould come up in Two and Twenty Throws , of this he would offer to lay
a Wager, and a6lually laid it when required. The feeming contradiBion
between the Odds of One and Thirty to One, and Twentytwo Throws Jor
any Chance to come up, fo perplexed the Adventurers, that they begun to
think the Advantage was on their fide ; for which reafon they played on
and continued to Ife.
I The Doftrine of Chances may likewife be a help to cure a Kind of
Superftition, which has been of long ftanding in the World, viz. that there
is in Play fuch a thing as Luck, good or bad. I own there are a great
many judicious people, who without any other Ajfiftance than that of their
07vn reafon, arefatisfied, that the Notion ofLnck is meerly Chimerical;
yet I conceive that the ground they have to look upon it as fuch, may fiill
be farther inforced from fome of the following Confiderations.
ff by faying that a Man has had good Luck, nothing more was meant
than that he has been generally a Gainer at play, the Expreffion might
be allowed as very proper in a fhort way of f peaking : But if the Word
Good Luck be underflood to fignify a certain predominant quality, fo in
herent in a Man, that he muff win whe?iever he Plays, or at leafi win
oftner than lofe^ it may be denied that there is any fuch thing in nature.
The
iv PREFACE.
The AJjerten of Luck are very Jure from their own ExperiencCy
that at Jbme times they have been very Lucky, and that at other times
they have had a prodigious Run of ill Luck againjl them, which whiljl
it continued cbliged them to be very cautious in engaging with the For
tunate ; but how Chance fiouid produce thofe extroardinary Events, is
what they cannot conceive : They would be glad, for Injlance, to be Sa
tisfied, hovj they could loj'e Fifteen Games together at Piquet, if ill
Luck had not flrangely prevailed againjl them. But if they will be
f. leafed to confder tie Rules delivered in this Book, they will fee,
flat though the Cdds again/l their lofing Jo many times together be very
great, viz. 32767 ^o i, yet that the Pofjibility oj it is 7iot dejlroyed by
the greatnejs of the Odds, there being One Chance in 32768 that it may
fo happen ; from whence it J'ollows, that it was ftill pojjible to come topafs
without the Intervention of what they callV^ Luck.
Befdes, This Accident of lofing Fifteen times together at Piquet, is
no more to be imputed to ill Luck, than the Winning with one fingle
Ticket the highejl Prize, in a Lottery of 32768 Tickets, is to be im
puted to good Luck, fince the Chances in both Cafes are perfeSlly equal.
But if it be Jaid that Luck has been concerned in this latter Cafe,
the Anfwer will be eafy ; for let us fuppoje Luck not exifting, or at leaji
let us fuppofe its Influence to be J'uJ'pended, yet the highejl Prize muftjall
into fome Hand or other, not by Luck, (for by the Hypothefis that has
been laid a fide) but from the rneer nccefjity of its falling fomewhere.
Thofe who, contend Jor Luck, may, if they pleaj'e, alledge other Cafes
at Play, much more unlikely to happen than the Winning or Lofing
fifteen Games togeti.er, yet Jlill their Opinion will never receive any
Addition of Strength J romjuch Suppofitions : For, by the Rules of Chance,
a time may be computed, in which thofe Cafes may as probably happen as
not ; nay, not only fc, but a time may be computed in which there may be
any proportion of Odds for their fo happening.
But fiippofing that Gain and Lofs were Jo fliSuating, as always to be
dijlributed cjually, whereby Luck liould certainly be annihilated; would
it be reafonable in this Cafe to attribute the Events of Play to Chance
alone? 1 think, onthe contrary, it would be quite otherwife, for then there
•w'.uld be more reaj'on to JuJfeB that fome unaccountable Fatality did rule
in it : Thus, if two Perfbns play at Crofs and Pile, and Chance alone
be fuppcfed to be concerned in regulating the fall of the Piece, is it pro
bable that there jhould be an Equality of Heads and CroJJes? It is Five
to Three that in Jour times there will be an inequality ; 'tis Eleven to
Five infix, 93 to 35 in Eight, and about 12/01 in a hundred times :
Wherefore Chance alone by its Nature conflitutes the Inequalities of Play ^
and there is no need to have recourfe to Luck to explain them.
Further,
PREFACE. • V
Further, the fame Arguments lahich explode the Notion oJLuck,
may^ on the other fide, be ujeful in fome Cafes to eftabliJI) a due com
part fen betijoeen Chance and Defign : JVe may imagine Chance and De
fign to be, as it urre, in Competition ivith each other, for the produclicn
of fome forts of E'cents, and may calculate what Probability there is,
that thoje Event sfiould be rather owing to one than to the other. To give
a Jamiliar Inflance of this. Let us fuppofe that two Packs of Piquet
Cards being fent for, it fJ:ould be perceived that there is, from Top to
Bottom, the fame Dtfpofttion of the Cards in both Packs; let us like
wife fuppofe that, fome doubt arifing about this Difpoftion of the Cards,
it fhould be quejiioned whether it ought to be attributed to Chance, or
to the Maker's Defign : In this Cafe the DoBrine of Combinations de
cides the ^efiion; fmce it may be proved by its Rules, that there are
the Odds of above 263 130830000 Millions of Millions of Mi Hi 'Ms of
Millions to One, that the Cards were deftgnedly fct in the Order in which
they were found.
From this lafl Confideration we may learn, in may Cafes, hew to
dijlinguifh the Events which are the effeSi of Chance, from thofe which
are produced by Defign : The very Doctrine that finds Chance where it
really is, being able to prove by a gradual Increafe of Probability, till
it arrive at Demonflration, that where Uniformity, Order and Con
fiancy refide, there alfo re fide Choice and Defign.
Laflly, One of the principal Ufes to which this Doftrine of Chances
may be applied, is the difcovering of fome Truths, which cannot fail of
pleafmg the Mind^ by their Generality and Simplicity ; the admirable
Connexion of its Confequences will increafe the Pleafure of the Difcovery,
and the feeming Paradoxes wherewith it abounds, will afford ver\ great
matter of Surprize and Entertainment to the Inquifitive. A very re
markable Inflance of this ?iature may be feen in the prodigious Advan
tage which the repetition of Odds will amount to ; Thus, Suppofing I play
with an Adverfary who allows me the Odds of 43 to 40, and agrees
with me to play till 100 Stakes are won or lofl on either fide, on condi
tion that I give him an Equivalent for the Gain I am intitled to by
the Advantage of my Odds ; the Sfueflion is, what I am to give him,
onfuppofing we play a Guinea a Stake: The Anfwer is 99 Guineas and
above 1 8 Shillings *, which will feem aimoft incredible, confuierw^ the
fmallnefs of the Odds of ^7, to 40. Now let the Odds be in 'any Propor
tion given, and let the Number of Stakes be played for be never fo great,
yet one general Conclufion will include all the pojfible Ca/es, and the ap
plication of it to Numbers may be wrought in lefs than a Minute's time.
* Guineas ivire then at 2 \P' 6 ''•
^ / h«ve
vi • PREFACE.
/ have explained, in my Introdudlion to the following Trtatife^ the
chief Rules on which the whole Art of Chances depends ; I have done it
in the plainefl manner that I could think of to the end it might be (as
much as fofjible) of general life. I fatter my felf that thofe who are
acntiaintcd with Arithmetical Operations, will, by the help of the In
trodiidion alone, he able to folve a great Variety of ^leftions depending
on Chance : I li^ijh, for the Jake of fome Gentlennn who have beenpleajed
to Jubfcribc to the printing of msBooh, that I cotddevery where have been
as plain as in the Introdud^ion ; but this was hardly praSlJcaMe, t lie In
vention of the great ef part of the Rules being intirely owing to Algebra j
yet I have, as much aspo[}ible., endeavoured to deduce from the Algebraical
Calculation f'cveral practical Rules, the 'Truth of which may be depend
ed upon, and which tiuiy be very iif'eful to thoje who have contented them~
Jelves to learn only common Arithmetick.
On this cccafton, I n^itjl take notice to fuch of my Readers as are
well verf'd in Vidgar Arithmetick, that it would not be difficult for
them to make themfelves Mafters, not only of all the practical Rules in
this Book, but alfo of more ifeful Difcoveries, if they would take the
fmall Fains of being acquainted with the bare Notation oj Algebra,
which might be done in the hu7idredth part of the Time that isfpent in
learning to write Shorthand.
One of the principal Methods I have made ufe of in the following
Treat ife, has been the DoBrine of Combinations, taken in a Senfe
fomewhat more exteifivc, than as it is commonly underjlood. The No
tion of Combinations being Jo well fitted to the Calculation of Chance^
that it naturally enters the Mind whenever an Attempt is made to
wards the Solution of any Problem of that kind. It was this that led
me in courfe to the Confideration of the Degrees of Skill in the Adven
turers at Play, and I have made ufe of it in mojl parts of this Book^
as one of the Data that enter the ^leflion; it being fo jar from, per
plexing the Calculation, that on the contrary it is rather a Help aftd an
Ornament to it : It is true, that this Degree of Skill is not to be known
any other way than from Obfcrvatian ; but if the fame Obfervatixm.
conjlantly recur, 'tis Jlrongly to be prefumed that a near EJiimation of
it may be made : However, to make the Calculation more precife, and
to avoid caufing any needlefs Scruples to thofe who love Geometrical
ExaSlnefs, it will he eajy, in the rcom of the word. Skill, to fubflitute
a Greater or Lefs Proportion of Chances among the Adventurers, fo as
each of them may befaid to have a certain Number of Chances to win one
fingle Game^
The general Theorem invented by Sir Ifaac Newton, /cr raifmg a Bino
mial to any Power given, facilitates infinitely the Method of (Zom\>miii\oni,.
reprefenting
PREFACE. vii
reprefenting in one Vieiv the Combination of all the Chances, that can
happen in any given Number of Times. 'Tis by the help of that Theorem,
joined ivith fome other Methods, that 1 have been able to find practical
Rules for the Joking a great Variety of difficult ^te/lions, and to te
duce the Difficulty to a Jingle Arithmetical Multiplication, whereof fever al
In fiances may be Jeen in the /sjbth Page of this Book.
yfnot her Method I have made u/e of is that of Infinite Ssrks, •which
in many cafes will folve the Problems of Chance more naturally than
Combinations. To give the Reader a Notion of this, we may fiippofe
two Men at Play throwing a Die, each in their Turns, and tL.t he
is to be reputed the lVi7iner who Jhall frjl throw an Ace: It is plain,
that the Solution of this Problem cannot fo properly be reduced to Com
binations, 'which ferve chiefly to determine the proportion of Chances be
tween the Gamejlers, without any regard to the Priority of Play. 'Tis
convenient thercjore to have reccurfe to fome other Method, Juch as the
following: Let us fuppofe that the firfl Man, being willing to compound
with his Adverfary for the Advantage he is ifititled tojrom his firjl
Throw, pould ajk him what Confideration he would alloiv to yield it to
him ; // may naturally be /iippofed that the Anfwer would be one Sixth
part of the Stake, there being but Five to One againfi him, and that
this Allowance would be thought a jiijl Equivalent Jor yielding his Throw.
Let us likewije fuppofe the fecond Man to require in his Turn to have
onefxth part of the remaining Stake for the Confideration oj his Throw ;
which being granted, and the firjl Man's Right returning in courje, 'he
may claim again one fixth part of the Remainder, and fo on alter
nately, till the whole Stake be exhaufted: But this not being to be done
till after an infinite number oj Shares be thus taken on both Sides, it
belongs to the Method o/" Infinite Series to affign to each Man what pro
portion of the Stake he ought to take at firjl, fo as to anfwer exatlly
that famous Divifon of the Stake in infinitum ; by means of which
ti will be found, that the Stake ought to be divided between the contend
ing Parties into two parts, reJpeSiively proportional to the two Numbers
6 and 5. By the like Method it would be found that if there were
Three or more Adventurers playing on the conditions above defcribcd,
each Man, according to the Situation he is in with refpecl to Priority of
Play, might take as his due fucb part of the Stake, as is exprefjible by
the correjponding Term of the proportion of 6 to 5, continued to )d many
Terms as there are Gamefiers ; which in the caje of Three Gamefters,
for Inflame, would be the Numbers 6, 5, and 4^ , or their Pro\
portionak 16, 30, ,7^25.
Another Advantage oJ the Method of Infinite Series is, that every
lerm of the Series includes jlme particular Circumftance wherein the
^ 2 Gamefiers
viii PREFACE.
Gatnejhrs way be founds 'ivhich the other Methods do not ; and that a
fe^v of its Steps are Jitfjicient to di /cover the Law of its ProceJ's. The
only 'Difficulty v:hich attends this Method, being that of fiimming up
fo many of its Terms as are requifite for the Solution of the Problem
propofcd: But it will be found by Experience, that in the Series refult
ing from the Confide rat ion cf mojl Cafes relating to Chance, the Therms
of it will either ccfjfliiute a Geometric Progrefjion, which by the known
Methods is eafily }ummablc ; or elfe f'ome other fort of Progreffion, whofe
nature confifis in this, that every Term of it has to a determinate num
ber of the preceding Terms, each being taken in order, fome conflant re~
laticn ; in which cafe I have contrived fome eafy Theorems, not only for
finding the Law of that Relation, but alfo for finding the Sums re
quired'^ as may be feen in fever al places of this Book, but particu
larly from page 2 20 to page 230.
A Third /Advantage of the Method of Infinite Series is, that tlje So
lutions derived from it have a certairi Generality and Elegance, which
fcarce any other Method can attain to ; thofe Methods being always
perplexed with various unknown ^lantities, and the Solutions obtained
by them terminating commonly in particular Cafes.
There are other Sorts of Series, which tho not properly infinite, yet
are called Series, from the Regularity of the Terms whereof they are
compofed; thofe Terms following one another with a certain uniformity y
which is always to be defined. Of this nature is the Theorem given
by Sir Ifaac Newton, in the fifth Lemma of the third Book of his
Principles, for drawing a Curve through any given number of Points ;
of which the Demonfiration, as well as of other things belonging to the
fame Sub]e£i, may be deduced from the firfi Propofition oj his Methodus
Differentialis, printed with fotne other of his TroSis, by the care of my In
timate Friend, and very fJiiljul Mathematician, Mr. W. Jones. The
abovementio?ied Theorem being very ifeful in fumming up any 7iumber of
Terms whofe lafl Differences are equal, (fuch as are the Numbers called
Triangular, Pyramidal, &c. the Squares, the Cubes, or other Po%vers
of Numbers in Arithmetic Progreffion) I have Jhewn in many places of
this Book how it might be applicable to thefe Cafes.
After having dwelt Jome time upon various ^uefiions depending on the
general Priyiciple of Combinations, as laid down in my IntroduSiion,
and upon f'ome others depending en the Method of hfinite Series, 1 pro
ceed to treat of the Method of Combinations properly fo called, which
I fi:ew to be eafily deducible from that more general Principle which
bad been before explained: JVfjere it may be obferved, that although the
Cafes it is applied to are particular, yet the Way of Reafoning;
and the Confequences derived from it, are general; that Method of
Argiiing
PREFACE. i%
jirguing about generals by particular Examples, being in my opinion
•very convenient jor eafing the Reader's Imagination.
Having explained the common Rules of Combinations, and given a The
orem lohich may be of ufefor the Solution offome Problems relating to that
EubjeSl, I lay down a new Theorem, which is properly a contraSfion of
the former, whereby feveral ^eftions of Chance are refolved with won
derful eafe, tho the Solution might feem at firfl fight to be of infuperabk
difficulty.
It is by the Help oj that Tloeorem fo contrasted, that I have been able
to give a compleat Solution of the Problems o/"Pharaon and Baflette, which
was never done before me: 1 own that fome great Mathematicians had
already taken the pains of calculating the advantage of the Banker,
in any circumjiance either of Cards remairiing in his Hands, or cf any
number of times that the Card cf the Ponte is contained in the Stock:
But fill the curiofity of the Inqui/itive remained unjatisfed; The Chief
^ejiion, and by much the mojl difficult, concerning Pharaon or Baflette,.
being. What it is that the Banker gets per Cent, of all the Money adven
tured at thofe Games ? which now I can certainly anjwer is very near
Three per Cent, at Pharaon, and three fcurths per Cent, at Baflette,
as may he feen in my 'i^^d Problem, where the precife Advantage is
calculated.
In the 35^/6 and 26th Problems, I explain a new fort of Algebra,
whereby Jome ^ejlions relating to Combinations are jolved by fo eajy a
Prccefs, that their Solution is made in fome meafure an immediate con
fequence of the Method of Notation. I will not pretend to fay that this
new Algebra is abjolutely necefjary to the Solving of thofe ^cjiions which
I make to depend on it, fince it appears that Mr. Monmort, Author of
the An^Xyic desjeux de Hazard, and Mr. Nicholas BtrnonWitave folved.,
by another Method, jnany of the cafes therein propofed : But I hope I J]:all
not be thought guilty of too much Confidence, if I affure the Reader, that
the Method I have followed has a degree of Simplicity, not to fax of
Generality, which will hardly be attained by any other Steps than by.
thofe I have taken.
The T^gth Problem, propofed to me, amojigft fome others, by the Ho
nourable Mr. Francis Robartes, / had folved in my tradl De menfura
Sortis; // relates, as well as the 'i^e^th and ^tth, to the Method of Com
binations, as is made to depend on the fame Principle. When I be^an
jor the firfl time to attempt its Solution, I had Jicthing elfe to guide mc
but the common Rules of Combinations, fuch as they had been delivered b\
Z)r. Wall is <zff^ others; which when I endeavoured to apply, I was fur
prized to find that my Calculation fwelled by degrees to an intolerable Bulk:
For this reafon I was forced to turn my Views another way, and to try
whether.
X PREFACE.
'whether the Solution I ivas fee king for might not be deduced from Jome ea
fier co'fideratious •■> 'whereupon I happily Jell upon the Method I have beat
tnentioning, lihich as it led me to a very great Simplicity in the Solution^
fo I look upon it to be an Improvement made to the Method of Combinations.
The Aoth Problem is the reverfe of the preceding ; It contains a very
remarkable Method of Solution, the Artifice of ithich conffls in changing
an Arithmetic Progrefjion of Numbers into a Geometric one ; this being
al'ways to be done ii hen the Numbers are large, and their Intervals fmall.
I freely achwivledge that I have been indebted long ago for this ufeful Idea,
io my much refpcBed Friend, 'That Excellent Mathematician Dr. Hal
ley, Secretary to the Royal Society, whom I have feen pra5life the thing
en another ■ occafion : For this and other Liflruciive Notions readily im
parted to me, during an uninterrupted Friendf}:)ip of five andTwenty years,
I return him my very hearty Thanks.
The ^^ihand 4 ^th Problems, having in them a Mixture of the two Methods
of Combinations and lnf?2ite Series, may be propofed for a pattern of Solution,
infome of the moft difficult cafes that may occur in the SubjeB of Chance,
and on this occafion I muji do that Jujlice to Mr. Nicholas Bernoulli,
to ownhehad fent me the Solution of thofe Problems before mine was Pub
liJJoed ; which I had no fooner received, but I communicated it to the
Royal Society, and reprefented it as a Performance highly to be commend
ed: Whereupon the Society order d that his Solution pould be Printed,
which was accordingly donefome time after in the Philofophical Tranf
adions, Numb. 341, where mine was alfo inferted.
The Problems which folloiv relate chiefly to the Duration of Play, or
to the Method of determining what number of Games may probably be played
out by two Adverfaries, before a certain number of Stakes agreed on be
tween them be won or lofi on either fide. This Subject affording a very
trreat Variety of Curious ^eflions, of which every one has a degree of
'^Difficulty peculiar to itfelf, I thought it neceffary to divide it into fever al
diJiinSl Problems, and to illufirate their Solution with proper Examples.
Tho' thefe ^eflions may at frfl fight fecm to have a very great degree
of difficulty, yet I have fome reafon to believe, that the Steps I have taken
to come at their Solution, will eafily be followed by thofe w^ho have a com
petent fki II in Algebra, and that the chief Method of proceeding therein
will be undcrficod by thcfe who are barely acquainted with the Elements of
that Art.
When Ifirfi began to attempt the general Solution oftlje Problem con
cerning the Duration of Play, there was nothing extant that could give
me any light into that SubjeB ; for althd Mr. de Monmort, in thefirfi
Edition of his Book, gives the Solution of this Problem, as limited to three
Stakes to be 'won or lojl, and farther lijmtcd by tl:^e Suppofition of an E
quality
PREFACE. xi
quality of Skill between the Adventurers ; yet he having given no De
tnonflration of his Solution, and the Demonjlration when difcovered
being of very little ufe towards obtaining the general Solution of the
Problem, I was forced to try what my own Enquiry would lead me to
which having been attended with Succefs, the refult of what I found was
afterwards publifloed in my Specimen before mentioned.
All the Problems which in my Specimen related to the Duration of
Play, have been kept entire in thejollowing Treatife j but the Method of
Solution has received fome Improvemetits by the 7iew Difcoveries I have
made concerning the Nature of thofe Series which refult from the Confi
deration of the SubjeB ; however, the Principles of that Method having
been laid down in my Specimen, / had nothing now to do, but to draw
the Confequerices that were naturally deducible from thetn.
ADVERTISEMENT.
TH E Author of this Work, by the failure of his Eyefight in ex
treme old age, was obliged to entruft the Care of a new Edi
tion of it to one of his Friends; to whom he gave a Copy of the for
mer, with fome marginal Corredlions and Additions, in his own hand
writing. To thefe the Editor has added a few more, where they
were thought neceflary : and has difpofed the whole in better Order;
by reftoring to their proper places Ibme things that had been acciden
tally mifplaced, and by putting all the Problems concerning Annuities
together; as they fland in the late z/«/>row^ Edition of the Treatife on
that Subjedt. An Appendix of feveral ufeful Articles is likewife fub
joined : the whole according to a Plan concerted with the Author^
above a year before his death.
E R R A r A.
Pag. 10 1. ult. for 445 read 455. p. 27 1. 4, for 10"' read 12?'' Article, p. 29 1. 30,
fotxy ready's, p. 45 1. ult. for — s' read ^ x.\ p. 68. 1, 6, for d^ \ c^ read
d^\ d^. p. 116 1. 26, for Art. %* read Art. 4"". p. 179 1. 8 from the bottom, for
XV. Prob. read Car*/, to Prob. 19. p. i8i 1. i, for 18"" read I9'^ p. 187 1. 25, for 38
read 28. p. 192 1. 7, from bottom, for aab and bba readaia and bab, p. 205 1. 7, for
of tf
I I .. read . . p. 238. 1. i6, fox AFGz read AFz.
THE
J.MyndtJiu^
THE
DOCTRINE
O F
CHANGES.
Aft«r*J5!*S!f«ft***A*ftft*ft*****ft**********************
The INTRODUCTION.
H E Probability of an Event is greater or lefs,
according to the number of Chances by which
, it may happen, compared with the whole num
ber of Chances by which it may either happen
or fail.
2. Wherefore, if we conftitute a Fradlion
whereof the Numerator be the number of
Chances whereby an Event may happen, and the Denominator
the number of all the Chances whereby it may either happen
or fail, that Fradtion will be a proper defignation of the Pro
B bability
/
2 The Doctrine <?/* Chances.
bability of happening. Thus if an Event has 3 Chances to happen,
and 2 to fail, the Fradlion — will fitly reprefent the Probability of
its happening, and may be taken to be the meafure of it.
The fame thing may be faid of the Probability of failing, which
will likewife be meafured by a Fradion whofe Numerator is the
number of Chances whereby it may fail, and the Denominator the
whole number of Chances, both for its happening and failing ; thus
the Probability of the failing of that Event which has 2 Chances to
fail and 3 to happen will be meafured by the Fradtion — .
3. The Fradions which reprefent the Probabilities of happening
and failing, being added together, their Sum will always be equal
to Unity, fince the Sum of their Numerators will be equal to their
common Denominator : now it being a certainty that an Event will
either happen or fail, it follows that Certainty, which may be con
ceived under the notion of an infinitely great degree of Probability,
is fitly reprefented by Unity.
Thefc things will eafily be apprehended, if it be confidered, that
the word Probability includes a double Idea ; firft, of the number of
Chances whereby an Event may happen ; fecondly, of the number
of Chances whereby it may either happen or fail.
If I fay that I have three Chances to win any Sum of Money, it
Is impoffible from that bare affertion to judge whether I am like to
obtain it ; but if I add that the number of Chances either to obtain
it, or to mifs it, is five in all, from hence will enfue a comparifon
between the Chances that favour me, and the whole number of
Chances that are for or againfl me, whereby a true judgment will be
formed of my Probability of fuccefs : from whence it neceflarily
follows, that it is the comparative magnitude of the number of
Chances to happen, in relpedt to the whole number of Chances
either to happen or to fail, which is the true meafure of Proba
bility.
4. If upon the happening of an Event, I be intitled to a Sum of
Money, my Expedation of obtaining that Sum has a determinate,
value before the happening of the Event.
Thus, if I am to have lo ^ in cafe of the happening of an Event
which has an equal Probability of happening and failing, my Ex
pedlation before the happening of the Event is worth 5 ' . for I am
precifely in the fame circumftances as he who at an equal Play ven
tures 5 ^ either to have 10, or to lofe his 5. Now he who ventures
5 ^ at an equal Play, is pofleflbr of 5 ^ before the decifion of the
Plays
I'he Doctrine o/*Chances. 3
Play ; therefore my Expedation in the cafe abovementioned muft
alfo be worth 5 ^
5. In all cafes, the Expeftation of obtaining any Sum is eftimated
by multiplying the value of the Sum expected by the Fraction which
reprefents the Probability of obtaining it.
Thus, if I have 3 Chances in 5 to obtain 100 ^ I fay that the
prefent value of my Expedation is the product of 100 ^ by the frac
tion — , and confequently that my expedlation is worth 60 ^•
For fuppofing that an Event may equally happen to any one of
5 different Perfons, and that the Perfon to whom it happens fliould
in confequence of it obtain the Sum of loo'^ it is plain that the
right which each of them in particular has upon the Sum exptded
is — — of 100^ which right is founded in this, that if the five Per
fons concerned in the happening of the Event, fliould agree not to
fland the Chance of it, but to divide the Sum expeded among them
felves, then each of them muft have — of 100 ^ for his prcten
fion. Now whether they agree to divide that fum equally among
themfelves, or rather chufe to ftand the Chance of the Event, no
one has thereby any advantage or difadvantage, fince they are all
upon an equal foot, and confequently each Perfon's expedation is
worth T of loo^ Let us fuppofe farther, that two of the five
Perfons concerned in the happening of the Event, fliould be willing
to refign their Chance to one of the other three j then the Perfon to
whom thofe two Chances are thus refigned has now three Chances
that favour him, and confequently has now a right triple of that
which he had before, and thereiore his expedation is now worth
— of 100 ^•
s
Now if we confider that the fradion — exprefies the Probability
of oDtaining the Sum of 100 ^j and that 7 of 100, is the fame
thing as ^ multiplied by 100, we muft naturally fall into this con
clufion, which has been laid down as a principle, that the value of
the Expedation of any Sum, is determined by multiplying the Sum
expeded by the Probability of obtaining it.
This manner of reafoning, tho' deduced from a particular cafe,
will eafily be perceived to be general, and applicable to any other
eafe.
B 2 COROL
4 The Doctrine o/" Chances.
Corollary.
From what precedes, it neceflarily follows that if the Value of
an Expedlation be given, as alfo the Value of the thing expedled,
then dividing the firft value by the fecond, the quotient will exprefs
the Probability of obtaining the Sum expefted : thus if I have an
Expedlation worth 60 ^ and that the Sum which I may obtain be
worth 100 '• the Probability of obtaining it will be expreft by the
quotient of 60 divided by 100, that is by the fradion ^ or — •
6. The Rifk of lofing any Sum is the reverfe of Expedation ; and
the true meafure of it is, the product of the Sum adventured multi
plied by the Probability of the Lofs.
7. Advantage or Difadvantage in Play, refults from the combi
nation of the feveral Expedations of the Gamefters, and of their fe
veral Rilks.
Thus fuppofing that A and B play together, that A has depofited
5^ and B 3 ^ that the number of Chances which A has to win
is 4, and the number of Chances which 5 has to win is 2, and that
it were required in this circumflance to determine the advantage or
difadvantage of the Adventurers, we may reafon in this manner :
Since the whole Sum depofited is 8, and that the Probability which
A has of getting it is — , it follows that the Expedtation of A upon
the whole Sum depofited is 8 x^= 5 ^, and for the fame reafon
the Expedation of £ upon that whole Sum depofited is 8 x = 2 — .
Now, if from the refpedive Expedations which the Adventurers
have upon the whole fum depofited, be fubtraded the particular
Sums which they depofit, that is their own Stakes, there will remain
the Advantage or Difadvantage of either, according as the difference
is pofitive or negative.
And therefore if from 5—, which is the Expedation oi A upon
the whole Sum depofited, 5 which is his own Stake, be fubtraded,
there will remain — for his advantage ; likewife if from 2 — which
is the Expedation of B, 3 which is his own Stake be fubtraded,
there will remain — , which being negative fhews that his Dif
advantage is — .
Thefe conclufions hiay alfo be derived from another confideration ;
for if from the Expedation which either Adventurer has upon the
Sum
The Doctrine o/^ Cha NCEs. 5
Sum depofited by his Adverfary, be fubtraded the Riik of what he
himfelf depofits, there will likewife remain his Advantage or Dif
advantage, according as the difference is pofitive or negative.
Thus in the preceding cafe, the Stake of B being 3, and the Pro
bability which A has of winning it, being — , the Expedation of
A upon that Stake is 3 x — "= 2 ; moreover the Stake of A be
ing 5, and the Probability of lofing it, being — , his Riik ought to
be eflimated by 5 x ^ ^= i — ; wherefore, if from the Expeda
tion 2, the Rifle I — be fubtraded, there will remain — as before
3 3 _
for the Advantage of A : and by the fame way of proceeding, the
Difadvantage of B will be found to be — .
It is very carefully to be obferved, that what is here called Advan
tage or Difadvantage, and which may properly be called G.un or
Lofs, is always eftimated before the Event is come to pafs ; and altho'
it be not cuftomary to call that Gain or Lof; which is to be derived
from an Event not yet determined, neverthelefs in the Dodrine of
Chances, that appellation is equivalent to what in common difcourfc
is called Gain or Lofs.
For in the fame manner as he who ventures a Guinea in an
equal Game may, before the determination of the Play, be faid to be
pofleflbr of that Guinea, and may, in confideration of that Sum,
refign his place to another ; fo he may be faid to be a Gainer or
Lofer, who would get fome Profit, or fuffer fome Lofs, if he would
fell his Expedation u::on equitable terms, and fecure his own Stake
for a Sum equal to the Rifk of lofing it.
8. If the obtaining of any Sum requires the happening of feveral
Events that are independent on each other, then the Value of the
Expectation of that Sum is found by multiplying together the feveral
Probabilities of happening, and again multiplying the produd by the
Value of the Sum expcdcd.
Thus fuppofing that in order to obtain 90 ^ two Events mufl
happen; the firfl: whereof has 3 Chances to happen, and 2 to fail,
the fecopd has 4 Chances to happen, and 5 to fail, and 1 would
know the value of that Expectation ; I fay.
The Probability of the firft's happening is ^ , the Probability of
the fecond's happening is — ; now multiplying thefe two Probabili
ties together, the produd will be !i or — ; and this produd being
45 '5
again
6 The Doctrine i^/" Chances.
again multiplied by 90, the new produdt will be^^ or 24, there
's
fore that Expedation is worth 24 ^•
The Dcmonftration of this will be very eafy, if it be confider'd,
that fuppofing the firft Event had happened, then that Expedation
depending now intirely upon the fecond, would, before the determi
nation of the fecond, be found to be exa<flly worth — x 90 ^ or
40 ^ (by Art. 5''') We may therefore look upon the happening of the
firft, as a condition of obtaining an Expedtation worth 40^ but
the Probability of the firft's happening has been fuppofcd — r , where
fore the Expectation fought for is to be eftimated by 7 x 40, or
by ^ X — X 90 ; that is, by the produdl of the two Probabilities
of happening multiplied by the Sum expeded.
And likewife, if an Expedtation depends on the happening of one
Event, and the failing of another, then its Value will be the produdl
of the Probability of the firft's happening by the Probability of the
fecond's failing, and of that again by the Value of the Sum ex
pedled.
And again, if an Expedtation depends on the failing of two Events,
the Rule will be the fame ; for that Expedtation will be found by
multiplying together the two Probabilities of failing, and multiplying
that again by the Value of the Sum expedted.
And the fame Rule is applicable to the happening or failing of as
many Events as may be affigned,
COROL L AR Y.
If wc make abflradtion of the Value of the Sum to be obtained,
the bare Probability of obtaining it, will be the produdt of the feveral
Probabilities of happening, which evidendy appears from this %^^ Art.
and from the Corollary to the 5^^.
Hitherto, I have confined myfelf to the confideration of Events
independent ; but for fear that, in what is to be faid afterwards, the
terms independent or dependent might occafion fome obfcurity, it
will be necefTary, before I proceed any farther, to fettle intirely the
notion of thofe terms.
Two Events are independent, when they have no connexion one
with the other, and that the happening of one neither forwards nor
obftrudts the happening of the other.
Two Events are dependent, when they are fo connedted together as *
that the Probability of cither's happening is altered by the happening
of tlie other. In
7^^ DoCTRINEtf/^CHANCES. 7
In order to illuftrate this, it will not be amifs to propofe the two
following eafy Problems.
1°. Suppofe there is a heap of 13 Cards of one colour, and an
other heap of 13 Cards of another colour, what is the Probability
that taking a Card at a venture out of each heap, I fhall take the
two Aces ?
The Probability of taking the Ace out of the firft heap is — :
13
now it being very plain that the taking or not taking the Ace out of
the firft heap has no influence in the taking or not taking the Ace
out of the fcxond ; it follows, that fuppofing that Ace taken out,
the Probability of taking the Ace out of the fecond will alfo be  i
and therefore, thofe two Events being independent, the Probability
of their both happening will be ^ v — ^ = ^.
2"'. Suppofe that out of one fingle heap of 1 3 Cards of one colour,
it fhould be undertaken to take out the Ace in the firft place, and
then the Deux, and that it were required to aflign the Probability
of doing it; we are to confider that altho" the Probability of the Ace's
being in the firft place be ■— , and that the Probability of the Deux's
being in the fecond place, would alfo be — , if that fecond Event
were confidered in itfelf without any relation to the firft ; yet that
the Ace being fuppofed as taken out at firft, there will remain but
1 2 Cards in the heap, and therefore that upon the fuppofition of the
Ace being taken out at firft, the Probability of the Deux's being next
taken will be alter'd, and become ^ , and therefore, we may con
clude that thofe two Events are dependent, and that the Probability
of their both happening will be ^ x — = ~ .
From whence it may be inferred, that the Probability of the hap
pening of two Events dependent, is the produdl of the Probability
of the happening of one of them, by the Probability which the
other will have of happening, when the firft is confidered as having
happened ; and the fame Rule will extend to the happening of as
many Events as may be afligned.
9. But to determine, in the eafieft manner poffible, the Probability
of the happening of feveral Events dependent, it will be convenient
to diftinguifti by thought the order of thofe Events, and to fuppofe
one of them to be the firft, another to be the fecond, and fo on i
which being done, the Probability of the happening of the firft may
be
8 iTDe Doctrine of Chances.
be looked upon as independent, the Probability of the happening of
the fecond, is to be determined from the fuppofition of the firfl's
having happened, the Probability of the third's happening, is to be
determined from the fuppofition of the firfl: and fecond having
happened, and fo on: then the Probability of the happening of them
all will be the product of the Multiplication of the feveral Probabili
ties which have been determined in the manner prefcribed.
We had feen before how to determine the Probability of the hap
pening or failing of as many Events independent as may be afligned;
we have feen likewife in the preceding Article how to determine the
Probability of the happening of as many Events dependent as may
be affigned : but in the cafe of Events dependent, how to determine
the Probability of the liappening of fome of them, and at the fame
time the Probability of the failing of fome others, is a difquifition
of a greater degree of difficulty ; which for that reafon will be more
conveniently transferred to another place.
JO. If I have feveral Expedtations upon feveral Sums, it is very
evident that my Expedtation upon the whole is the Sum of the Ex
pedations I have upon the particulars.
Thus fuppofe two Events fuch, that the firft may have 3 Chances to
happen and 2 to fail, and the fecond 4 Chances to happen and 5 to fail,
and that I be intitled to 90 ^ in cafe the firft happens, and to an
other like Sum of 90^^ in cafe the fecond happens alfo, and that I
would know the Value of my Expedtation upon the whole : I fay,
The Sum expedted in the firft cafe being 90^ and the Probability
of obtaining it being 7, it follows that my Expedlation on that
account, is worth 90 x — r= 54 ; and again the Sum expedted
in the fecond cafe being 90, and the Probability of obtaining it being
— , it follows that my Expedtation of that fecond Sum is worth
90 X  = 40 ; and therefore my Expedlation upon the whole is
worth 54 ^  40 ^ r= 94 ^■
But if I am to have 90^ once for all for the happening of one
or the other of the two aforementioned Events, the method of pro
cefs in determining the value of my Expedlation will be fomewhat
altered : for altho' my Expedlation of the firft Event be worth 54^
as it was in the preceding Example, yet I confider that my Expec
tation of the fecond will ceafe upon the happening of the firft, and
that therefore this Expedlation takes place only in cafe the firft does
happen to fail. Now the Probability of the firft's failing is  ; and
fuppofing
1^)6 Doctrine c/ Chances. 9
fuppofing it has failed, then my Expeflation will be 40 ; where
fore  being the meafure of the Probability of my obtaining an
Expectation worth 40 ^., it follows that this Expedation (to eftimate
it before the time of the firfl's being determined) will be worth 40 X 
= 16, and therefore my Expedlation upon the whole is worth
54^ \ 1 6^= 70'
If that which was called the fecond Event bs now confidered as
the firft, and that which was called the firft be now confidered as the
fecond, the conclufion will be the fame as before.
In order to make the preceding Rules familiar, it will be conve
nient to apply them to the Solution of fome eafy cafes, fuch as are
the following.
CASE P
To find the Probability of throwing an Ace in two throws
of one Die.
SOLUT ION.
The Probability of throwing an Ace the firft time is — ; where
fore — is the firft part of the Probability required.
If the Ace be miffed the firft time, ftill it may be thrown on the
fecond, but the Probability of miffing it the firft time is \ , and
the Probability of throwing it the fecond time is — ; wherefore the
Probability of miffing it the firft time and throwing it the fecond, is
^ X T = —^ '• and this is the fecond part of the Probability re
quired, and therefore the Probability required is in all . —  \ ■=.
1 1
To this aife is analogous a queftion commonly propofed about
throwing with two Dice either fix or feven in two throws ; which
will be eafily folved, provided it be known that Seven has 6 Chances
to come up, and Six 5 Chances, and that the whole number of
Chances in two Dice is 36 : for the number of Chances for throw
ing fix or feven being 1 1 , it follows tlwt the Probability of throwing
either Chance the firft time is — : but if both are miffed the firft
time, ftill either may be thrown the fecond time 3 now the Proba
C bility
10 The Doctrine <?/ Chances.
bility of miffing both the firft time is ^ , and the Probabili
ty of throwing either of them the fecond time is ~ : wherefore
the Probability of miffing both of them the firfl: time, and throw
2C II 271;
ing either of them the fecond time, is — ■ x — = — ^ ,
and
therefore the Probability required is — J ^^ .= — '— ^ and
the Probabihty of the contrary is — ^ .
•' ^ 1290
CASE IP
7oJi?id the Probability of throwing an Ace in three throws.
Solution.
The Probability of throwing an Ace the firfl time is — , which
is the firft part of the Probability required.
If the Ace be miffed the firft time, ftill it may be thrown in the
two remaining throws ; but the Probability of miffing it the firfl
time is \ , and the Probability of throwing it in the two remain
ing times is (by Cafe i^) = — ■ . And therefore the Probability of
miffing it the firft time, and throwing it in the two remaining times
'^ b" 5^ "~6" ^^^ Tif » "which is the fecond part of the Probability
required j wherefore the Probability required will be 5 ^ ^ =
CASE IIP
"To find the Probability of throwing an Ace in four throws.
Sol ution.
The Probability of throwing an Ace the firft time is  , which
is the firft part of the Probability required.
If the Ace be miffed the firft time, of which the Probability is
\ , there remains the Probability of throwing it in three times,
which (by Cafe 2^) is ^ ; wherefore the Probability of miffing
the Ace the firft time, and throwing it in the three remaining times,
\i&=r r X ^ = ^ , which is the fecond part of the Proba
^ bility
7^^ Doctrine <?/'Chances., fx
billty required ; and therefore the Probability required is, in the whole,
i + 1^ = ^ , and the Probability of the contrary ^.
It is remarkable, that he who undertakes to throw an Ace in four
throws, has juft the fame Advantage of his adverfary, as he who
undertakes with two Dice that fix or feven (hall come up in two
throws, the odds in either cafe being 671 to 625: whereupon it
will not be amifs to (hew how to determine eafily the Gain of one
Party from the Superiority of Chances he has over his adverfary,
upon fuppofition that each flake is equal, and denominated by
unity. For although this is a particular cafe of what has been ex
plained in the 7''' Article ; yet as it is convenient to have the Rule
ready at hand, and that it be eafily remembered, I (Ivall fet it down
here. Let therefore the odds be univerfally expreflfed by the ratio of
a to l>, then the refpedlive Probabilities of winning being 
b
b
and — — J , the right of the firft upon the Stake of the fecond is
— ^— X I, and like wife the right of the fecond upon the Stake of
the firfl: is _.L^ x i, and therefore the Gain of the firft is °~, X i
a\b ' a + b
or barely ~ , : and confequently the Gain of hin\ who under
takes that fix or feven (hall come up in two throws, or who under
. 671 — 6z; 46 ,
takes to ning aa Ace in, four throws, is ' 071+625" ^^ TI^ » ^"^'
is nearly ^ part of his adverfary 's Stake.
CASE IV'^.
'To find the Probability of throwing two Aces in two throws.
Solution.
It is plain (by the S'"" Art.) that the Probability required is
 X  = i .
6 (J 3O '
CASE V^.
To find the Probability of throwing two Aces ift three throws.
Solution.
If an Ace be thrown the firft time, then it will only be required
to throw it once in two throws ; but the Probability of throwing
it the firft time is ^ , and the Probability of throwing it once in
C 2 two
12 The Doctrine 0/ Chances.
two throws (by the firft cafe) is r^ : wherefore the Probability of
throwing it the firft time, and then throwing it once in the two
remaining times is ^ X ^5"= 77^ ; and this is equal to the firfl part
of the Probability required.
If the Ace be miffed the firft time, ftill there remains the Proba
bility of throwing it twice together, but the Probability of miffing
it the firft time is ^ , and the Probability of throwing it twice
together is (by the 4*'^ Cafe) = 1 ; therefore the Probability of
3'
5
both Events is L '^i^ 1. z=—. ; which is the fecond part of
6 36 216 ^
the Probability required: therefore the whole Probability required.
^ 216 ^^^ Tib ■
CASE vr\
To find theProbability of throwing two Aces in four throws.
Solution.
If an Ace be thrown the firft time, no more will be required
than throwing it again in three throws ; but the Probability of
throwing an Ace the firft time is ^ , and the Probability of throw
ing it in three times is ^ (by the 2^ Cafe j) wherefore the Proba
bility of both happening is ^ x ^ = —■ =1" part of the
Probability required.
If the Ace be miffed the firft time, ftill there will remain the
Probability of throwing two Aces in three throws ; but the Proba
bility of miffing the Ace the firft time is — , and the Probability
111
of throwing it twice in three throws is ^ , (by the f'*" Cafe;)
wherefore the Probability of both together is i x j;; = 77—
= 2^ part of the Probability required: and therefore the Probability
required = ^ j — = ^ .
And, by the fame way of reafoning, we may gradually find the
Probability of throwing an Ace as many times as fhall be demanded,.
in any given number of throws.
If, inftead of employing figures in the Solutions of the foregoing
Cafes, we employ algebraic Characters, we. fliall readily perceive a.
moft regular order in thofe Solutions. !'•
7^^ Doctrine (?/" Chances. 13
r I. Let therefore a be the number of Chances for the happening
of an Event, and b the number of Chances for its failing ; then thS
Probability of its happening once in any number of Trials will b*"
exprefled by the Series " , ab , gib
ai!
T^' ^ T77\=
+ TTTi' + a^b]"' ' ^^ "^^^^^ ^^'■^^s is to be continued to fo
many terms as are equal to the number of Trials given : thus if a
be= I, b = s, and the number of Trials given =4, then the
Probability required will be exprefled by ^ } ^ _ ii 1 '
f 71 '
1:96
The fame things being fuppofed as before, the Probability of the
Event's happening twice in any given number of Trials, will be ex
prefled by the Series ^\ 4. '^"^^ 4. '"''^'' 1 ^f^fJ ,
c.«M . ,. 7^\ ^^ , 7^* ^ ~^^^ '^
==rv , ccc. Which is to be continued to fo many term?, wanting
one, as is the number of Trials given ; thus let us fuppofe a = 1
S = s, and the number of Trials 8, then the Probability required
will he expreflid by 7— 4 ^ J ^^ 4. i£2_ 1 ^ ' _,
10750 . ioq"i; nb^QQt
279936 ~' 1679616 1079616
And again, the Probability of the Event's happening three times
in any given number of Trials will be exprefled by the Series
y+K^'^'TTlY'^TTlV"^ TTW^T^A^' ^^ which
is to be continued to fo many terms, wanting two, as is the num
ber of terms given.
But all thefe particular Series may be comprehended under a ge
neral one, which is as follows.
Let a be the number of Chances, whereby an Event may hap
pen, b the number of Chances whereby it may fail, / the num
ber of times that the Event is required to be produced in any
given number of Trials, and let « be the number of thofe Trials j
make a ^ b = .c, then the Probability of the Event's happen
ing / times in « Trial?, will be cxprefl'ed by the Series —j x
"l~ / ~l~ 1. 2. SJ I 1. 2. 3. j! I 1. i. 3. 4 1*
&c which Series is to be continued to fo many terms exclufive of
thc
It is to be noted here, and elfewhere, that the points here made vfe of, Jiand tnjlead of
the Mark of Multiplication X.
14 72^ Doctrine of Chaftces^
the common multiplicator — as are denoted by the number n —
And for the fame reafon, the Probability of the contrary,
that is of the Event's not happening fo often as / times, nia
,p
king n — / j i r=. p, will be exprefled by the Series — x
jP
, J>a_ , p.p^i aa i P P+ ' ■ /■ + 2. "' i t P + ■•/'4Z/'+ 3 "*
"1" J ~r ,. 2.. JJ "T~ I. 2. 3. j' ~l" I. 2. 3, 4. j4 >
vs'hich Series is to be continued to fo many terms, exclufive of the
common multiplicator, as are denoted by the number /.
Now the Probability of an Event's not happening being known,
the Probability of its happening will likewife be known, fince the
Sum of thofe two Probabilities is always equal to Unity ; and there
fore the fecond Series, as well as the firft, may be employed in
determining the Probability of an Event's happening : but as the
number of terms to be taken in the firft is expreffed by n — / \ i,
and the number of terms to be taken in the fecond is expreffed
by /, it will be convenient to ufe the firft Series, if n — / ] i be
lefs than /, and to ufe the fecond, if / be lefs than « — I \ i; ot
in other terms, to ufe the firft or fecond according as / is lefs or
greater than — ^ — .
Thus, fuppofc an Event has i Chance to happen, and 3 5 to fail,
and that it were required to affign the Probability of its happening
in 24 Trials; then becaufe in this cafe h = 24 and / = i, it is
plain that 24 terms of the firft Series would be requifite to anfwer
the Queftion, and that one fingle one of the fecond will be fuffi
cient : and therefore, if in the fecond Series we make ^^35,
tf = I, and /= 1, the Probability of the Event's not happening
once in 24 Trials, will be expreffed by —^ x i, which by the
help of Logarithms, we ftiall find nearly equivalent to the decimal
fradlion 0.50871 ; now this being fubtraded from Unity, the re
mainder 049129 will exprefs the Probability required ; and there
fore the odds againft the happening of the Event will be 50 to 49
nearly.
Again, fuppofe it be required to aflign the Probability of the pre
ceding Event's happening twice in 60 Trials ; then becaufe / = 2,
and ;; = 60, n — / + ^ will be = ^g, which fhews that 59 terms
of the firft Series would be required : but if we ufe the fecond, then
by reafon of / being = 2, two of its terms will be fufficient ;
wherefore
1*1:16 Doctrine (7/*Chances. 15
wherefore the two terms —^ X i + — ^ will denote the Proba
bility of the Event's not happening twice in 60 Trials. Now re
ducing this to a decimal fradion, it will be found equal to 0.5007,
which being fubtradlcd from Unity, the remainder 0.4993 will ex
prefs the Probability required ; and therefore the odds againft the
Event's happening twice in 60 times will be very little more than
500 to 499.
It is to be obferved of thofe Series, that they are both derived
from the fame principle ; for fuppofing two adverfaries A and 5,
contending about the happening of that Event which has every time
a chances to happen, and b chances to fail, that the Chances a are
favourable to A^ and the Chances b to B, and that A fhould lay a
wager with 5, that his Chances fhall come up / times in n Trials :
then by reafon B lays a wager to the contrary, he himfelf under
takes that his own Chances fliall, in the fame number of Trials,
come up ?? — I ■\ I times j and therefore, if in the firfl: Series, wc
change / into ;z — I \ j, and vice 'versa, and alfo write b for a, and
a for b, the fecond Scries will be formed.
It will be eafy to conceive how it comes to pafs, that if A un
dertakes to win / times in n Trials, his Adverfary B neceflarily un
,dertakes in the fame number of Trials to win ?i — I \ 1 times, if
it be confidered that A lofes his wager if he wins but / — i times ;
now if he wins but / — i times, then fubtrafting / — i from //,
the remainder fhews the number of times that B is to win, which
therefore will be « — / \ 1.
CASE vir''
2o ji?id the Probability of' throwing one Ace^ and no morey
ill four throws.
Solution.
This Cafe ought carefully to be diftinguiflied from the fourth 1
for there it was barely demanded, without any manner of reftridtiop,
what the Probability was of throwing an Ace in 4 throws j now in
this prefent cafe there is a reflraint laid on that Event : for whereas
in the former cafe, he who undertakes to throw an Ace defifts from
throwing when once the Ace is come up ; in this he obliges himfelf,
after it is come up, to a farther Trial which is wholly againft
him, excepting the laft throw of the four, after which there is no
Trial j and therefore we ought from the unlimited Probability of
the
1 6 The Doctrine <7/'Chances.
the Ace's being thrown once in 4 throws, to fubtradl the Probability
of its being thrown twice in that number of throws : now the firft
Probability is 7^ (by the 3^^ Cafe, and the fecond Probability is
(by the G^ Cafe,) from which it follows that the Probability re
'"''^ 00 796
quired is — , and the Probability of the contrary 7—^; and
therefore the Odds againft throwing one Ace and no more in 4
throws are 796 to 500, or 8 to 5 nearly : and the fame method
may be follow'd in higher cafes.
CASE VIII''
If A and B play together^ and that A wants but i Game
of being up^ and B wants 2 ; what are their refpe&ive
Probabilities of wiftning the Set f
Solution.
It is to be confidered that the Set will necellarily be ended in two
Games at moft, for if A wins the firft Game, there is no need of
any farther Trial ; but if B wins it, then they will want each but
1 Game of being up, and therefore the Set will be determined by
the fecond Game : from whence it is plain that A wants only to
win once in two Games, but that B wants to win twice together. Now
fuppofing that A and B have an equal Chance to win a Game,
then the Probability which B has of winning the firft Game will be
— , and confequently the Probability of his winning twice toge
ther will be — X — =: — 5 and therefore the Probability which
224
A has of winning once in two Games will be i = — , from
D 44
whence it follows that the Odds oi A^ winning are 3 to i.
CASE IX'''
A and B play together^ A wa?tts i Game of being up^ and
B wants 2 ; but the Chances whereby B may win a Game^
are double to the nu?7iber oj Chajices whereby A 7nay wi?i
the fame : 'tis required to ajftgn the refpeBive Probabi
lities of wi7i7iing.
Solution.
It is plain that in this, as well as in the preceding cafe, B ought to
win twice together j now fince B has 2 Chances to win a Game,
and
The Doctrine <?/'Chances. 17
and A i Chance only for the fame, the Probability which B has of
winning a Game is — , and therefore the Probability of his winning
twice together is — x "~ = " > and confequently the Probability
of A' winnins; the Set is i = — ; from whence it follows
that the Odds of ^^ winning once, before B twice, are as 5 to 4.
Remark.
Altho' the determining the precife Odds in queftions of Chance
requires calculation, yet fometimes by a fuperficial View of the quef
tion, it may be poffible to find that there will be an inequality in
the Play. Thus in the preceding cafe wherein B has in every Game
twice the number of Chances of A^ if it be demanded whether A
and B play upon the fquare, it is natural to confider that he who
has a double number of Chances will at long run win twice as often
as his Adverfary ; but that the cafe is here otherwife, for B under
taking to win twice before A once, he thereby undertakes to win
oftner than according to his proportion of Chances, (ince A has a
right to expedl to win once, and therefore it may be concluded
that B has the difadvantage : however, this way of arguing in gene
ral ought to be ufed with the utmofl: caution.
12. Whatever be the number of Games which A and B refpec
tively want of being up, the Set will be concluded at the moft in
fo many Games wanting one, as is the fum of the Games wanted
between them.
Thus fuppofe that A wants 3 Games of being up, and 5 5 ;
it is plain that the greateft number of Games that A can win of B
before the determination of the Play will be 2, and that the greateft
number which B can win of A before the determination of the
Play will be 4 ; and therefore the greateft number of Games that
can be played between them before the determination of the Play
will be 6 : tut fuppofing they have played fix Games, the next
Game will terminate the Play ; and therefore the utmoft number of
Games that can be played between them will be 7, that is one Game
lefs than the Sum of the Games wanted between them.
D CASE
1 8 iTje Doctrine 0/ Chances.
CASE X"^
Suppojtng that A wajiti 3 Games of being tip, and 'Q wants 7 ;
but that the Chafices which A a?id B re/pe&ively have
for winning a Gaitie are as t, to ^, to find the re
JpeSiive Probabilities of winning the Set.
Solution.
By reafon that the Sum of the Games wanted between A and B
is 10, it is plain by the preceding Paragraph that the Set will be con
cluded in 9 Games at moft, and that therefore A undertakes out
of 9 Games to win 3, and B, out of the fame number, to win 7;
now fuppofing that the firft general Theorem laid down in the 1 1 '*"
Art. is particularly adapted to reprefent the Probability of A"^ win
ning, then / = 3 ; and becaufe n reprefents the number of Games
in which the Set will be concluded, ?z =r 9 ; but the number of
terms to be ufed in the firfl Theorem being = « — I \ 1 = 7, and
the number of terms to be ufed in the fecond Theorem being =
/= 3, it will be more convenient to ufe the fecond, which will re
prefent the Probability of B^ winning. Now that fecond Theorem
being applied to the cafe of n being = 9, /= 3, <z = 3, b =5,
the Probability which 5 has of winning the Set will be exprefled by
1^x14^ + ~ =gX484= 0.28172 nearly; and
therefore fubtradting this from Unity, there will remain the Proba
bility which yf has of winning the fame, which will be :=z 0.71828 :
and confequently the Odds of A^ winning the Set will be 71828 to
28172, or very near as 23 to 9.
The fame Principles explained in a different and more general iv ay.
Altho' the principles hitherto explained are a fufficient introdudtion
to what is to be faid afterwards ; yet it will not be improper to rc
fumc fome of the preceding Articles, and to fet them in a new light :
it frequently happening that fome truths, when reprefented to the
mind under a particular Idea, may be more eafily apprehended than
when reprefented under another.
13. Let us therefore imagine a Die of a given number of equal
faces, let us likewife imagine another Die of the fame or any other
numbtr of equal faces ; this being fuppofed, I fay that the number
of all the variations which the two Dice can undergo will be obtained
by multiplying the number effaces of the one, by the number of
faces of the other.
In
Ihe Doctrine (?/"Chances. 19
In order to prove this, and the better to fix the imagination, let us
take a particular cafe : Suppofe therefore that the firft Die con
tains 8 faces, and the fecond \z , then fuppofing the firft Die to
ftand ftill upon one of its faces, it is plain that in the mean time
the fecond Die may revolve upon its 1 2 faces ; for which reafon,
there will be upon that fingle fcore 1 2 variations : let us now fup
pofe that the firft Die ftands upon another of its faces, then v.hiiil
that Die ftanJs ftill, the fecond Die may revolve again upon its 12
faces ; and fo on, till the faces of the firft Die have undergone all
their changes : from whence it follows, that in the two Dice, there
will be as many times 1 2 Chances as there are faces in the firft Die ;
but the number of faces in the firft Die has been fuppofed 8, where
fore the number of Variations or Chances of the two Dice will be
8 times 12, that is 96: and therefore it may he univerfally con
cluded, that the number of all the variations of two Dice will be
the produdt of the multiplication of the number of faces of one
Die, by the number of faces of the other.
14. Let us now imagine that the faces of each Die are diftin
guiftied into white and black, that the number of white faces upon
the firft is A, and the number of black faces B, and alfo that the
number of white faces upon the fecond is a, and the number of
black faces b ; hence it will follow by the preceding Article, that
multiplying A I B by <z } b^ the produdt ha \ hb \ B<z \ '^b,
will exhibit all the Variations of the two Dice : Now let us fee what
each of thefe four parts feparately taken will reprefent.
1°. It is plain, that in the fame manner as the produd of the
multiplication of the whole number of faces of the firft Die, by the
whole number of faces of the fecond, exprefles all the variations of
the two Dice ; fo likewife the multiplication of the number of the
white faces of the firft Die, by the number of the white faces of
the fecond, will exprefs the number of variations whereby the two
Dice may exhibit two white faces : and therefore, that number of
Chances will be reprefented by h.a.
2°. For the fame reafon, the multiplication of the number of
white faces upon the firft Die, by the number of black faces upon
the fecond, will reprefent the number of all the Chances whereby
a white face of the firft may be joined with a black face of the
fecond ; which number of Chances will therefore be reprefented by
Ab. ^
3°. The multiplication of the number of white faces upon the
fecond, by the number of black faces upon the firft, will exprefs the
number of all the Chances whereby a white face of thj fecond
D 2 may
20 Ihe Doctrine o/'Chances.
may be joined with a black face of the firft j which number of
Chances will therefore be reprefentecl by aB.
4°. The multiplication of the number of black faces upon the firft,
by the number of black faces upon the fccond, will exprefs the
number of all the Chances whereby a black face of the firft may
be joined with a black face of the fecond ; which number of Chances
will therefore be reprefented by B^.
And therefore we have explained the proper fignification and ufe
of the feveral parts ha, hb, Ba, B^^ fingly taken.
But as thefe parts may be connefted together feveral ways, fo the Sum
of two or more of any of them will anfwer fome queftion of Chance :
for inftance, fuppofe it be demanded, what is the number of Chances,
with the two Dice abovementioned, for throwing a white face ? it
is plain that the three parts Ka  Ab \ Ba will anfwer the queftion ;
iince every one of thofe parts comprehends a cafe wherein a white
face is concerned.
It may perhaps be thought that the firft term A^ is fuperfluous, it
denoting the number of Variations whereby two white faces can
be thrown ; but it will be eafy to be fatisfied of the neceflity of
taking it in : for fuppofing a wager depending on the throwing of
a white face, he who' throws for it, is reputed a winner, whenever
a white face appears, whether one alone, or two together, unlefs it
be exprefly ftipulated that in cafe he throws two, he is to lofe his
wager; in which latter cafe the two terms Kb  B<z would repre
fent all his Chances.
If now we imagine a third Die having upon it a certain number
of white faces reprefented by «, and likewife a certain number of
black faces reprefented by /3, then multiplying the whole variation
of Chances of the two preceding Dice viz. ha + hb \'Ba \ B/^
by the whole number of faces a  /3 of the third Die, the produdl
had. + hbcc 1 Baa + Bbot + Art/3 1 A/;/3 + Brt/3 \ BbjS will ex
hibit the number of all the Variations which the three Dice can un
dergo.
Examining the feveral parts of this new produft, we may eafily
perceive that the firft term hax repiefents the number of Chances
for throwing three white faces, that the fecond term Ab» repre
fents the number of Chances whereby both the firft and third Die
may exhibit a white fecc, and the fecond Die a black one ; and that
the reft of the terms have each their particular properties, which are
difcovered by bare infpedlion. ^
It may alfo be perceived, that by joining together two or more of
thofe terms, fome queftion of Chance will thereby be anfwered : for
inftance,
Ithe Doctrines/ Chances. 2r
inftance, if it be demanded what is the number of Chances for
throwing two white faces and a black one ? it is plain that the three
terms kbu, B^a, A^/S taken together will exhibit the number of
Chances required, fince in every one of them there is the expreffion
of two white faces and a black one ; and therefore if there be a
wager depending on the throwing two white faces and a black one,
he who undertakes that two white faces and a black one fliall come
up, has for him the Odds of kba. + V>aa. j Atf/3 to hau + '^boc +
hb^ \ Btf/3 \ Bbfi ; that is, of the three terms that include the con
dition of the wager, to the five terms that include it not.
When the number of Chances that was required has been found,
then making that number the Numerator of a fradlion, whereof the
Denominator is the whole number of variations which all the Dice
can undergo, that fradtion will exprefs the Probability of the Event j
as has been fliewn in the firft Article.
Thus if it was demanded what the Probability is, of throwing three
white faces with the three Dice abovementioned, that Probability will be
exprelTed by the fradion ^ ^_^ ^ . ^ b ..+ aJ^uu + A.gf B.^g+ ^"0 ;
But it is to be obferved, that in writing the Denominator, it will
be convenient to exprefs it by way of producft, diftinguifliing the
feveral multiplicators whereof it is compounded ; thus in the preced
ing cafe the Probability required will be befl exprelTed as follows.
A
/^cc
If the preceding fraction be conceived as the produdl of the three
fradions ■ , , x — ^^ X — ^^r , whereof the firft exprefles the
Probability of throwing a white face with the firft Die ; the fecond
the Probability of throwing a white face with the fecond Die, and
the third the Probability of throwing a white face with the third
Die ; then will again appear the truth of what has been demonftra
ted in the 8"* Art. and its Corollary, viz. that the Probability of
the happening of feveral Events independent, is the produdl of all
the particular Probabilities whereby each particular Event may bs
produced ; for altho' the cafe here defcribed be confined to three
Events, it is plain that the Rule extends itfelf to any number of
them.
Let us refume the cafe of two Dice, wherein we did fuppofe that
the number of white faces upon one Die was expreffed by A, and
the number of black faces by B, and alfo that the number of white
faces upon the other was exprefTed by a, and the number of black
faces by b, which gave us all the variations Aa \ Ab \ aB \ Bb i
and
2 2 T^he Doctrine o/" Chances.
and let us imagine that the number of the white and black, faces is re
fpeftively the fame upon both Dice : wherefore kz^a, and B =r />,
and confequently inftead of h.a ■\ hb \ <jB f B/^, we fliali have
aa \ ab \ ab j bb^ or aa f ^ab ) bb ; but in the firft; cafe hb
\ rtB did exprefs the number of variations whereby a white face and
a black one might be thrown, and therefore lab which is now fub
ftituted in the room of hb \ «B does exprefs the number of varia
tions, whereby with two Dice of the fame refpeftive number of
white and black faces, a white face and a black one may be thrown.
In the fame manner, if we refume the general cafe of three Dice,
and examine the number of variations whereby two white faces and
a black one may be thrown, it will eafily be perceived that if the
number of white and black faces upon each Die are refpedively
the fame, then the three parts kba. \ Bacx. \ Arf/3 will be changed
into aba { baa \ ^<^b. or "T^aab, and that therefore ^aab, which is
one term of the Binomial a \ b raifed to its Cube, will exprefs the
number of variations whereby three Dice of the fame kind would
exhibit two white faces and a black one.
1 5. From the preceding confiderations, this general Rule may be
laid down, viz. that if there be any number of Dice of the fame
kind, all diftinguifhed into white and black faces, that 71 be the num
ber of thofe Dice, a and b the refpedtive numbers of white and
black faces upon each Die, and that the Binomial ^ f ^ be raifed to
the power n ; then 1°, the firft term of that power will exprefs the
number of Chances whereby « white faces may be thrown ; 2^, that
the fecond term will exprefs the number of Chances whereby n — i
white feces and i black face may be thrown ; 3 ', that the third
term will exprefs the number of Chances whereby n — 2 white
faces and 2 black ones may be thrown ; and fo on for the reft of
the terms.
Thus, for inftance, if the Binomial a \ b be raifed to its 6*''
power, which is a^ \ ba^b \ i^a'^b' { 2oa}b^ \ i^a'^b'^  bab"^
f b^ ; the firft term a^ will exprefs the number of Chances for
throwing 6 white faces ; the fecond term ba'^b will exprefs the num
ber of Chances for throwing 5 white and i black ; the third term
I z,a^b'^' will exprefs the number of Chances for throwing 4 white
and 2 black; the fourth iQa'^b'^ will exprefs the number of Chances
for throwing 3 white and 3 black; the fifth ij^^M will exprefs
the number of Chances for throwing two white and 4 black ; the
fixth tab'' will exprefs the number of Chances for 2 white and 4
black ; laftly, the feventh b^ will exprefs the number of Chances
for 6 black.
And
The Doctrine <?y Chances. 23
And therefore having raifed the Binomial a \; b X.o any given
power, we may by bare infpedion determine the property of any
one term belonging to that power, by only obferving the Indices
wherewith the quantities a and b are affefted in that term, fince the
refpedlive numbers of white and black faces are reprefented by thofe
Indices.
The better to compare the confequences that may be derived from
the confideration of the Binomial a \ b raifed to a power given,
with the method of Solution that hath been explained before ; let
us refume fome of the preceding queftions, and fee how the Binomial
can be applied to them.
Suppofe therefore that the Probability of throwing an Ace in four
throws Vi'ith a common Die of fix faces be demanded.
In order to anfwer this, it mufi: be confidered that the throwing
of one Die four times fuccefTively, is the fame thing as throwing
four Dice at once ; for whether the fame Die is ufed four times fuc
cefTively, or whether a different Die is ufed in each throw, the Chance
remains the fame ; and whether there is a long or a fhort interval be
tween the throwing of each of thefe four different Dice, the Chance
remains flili the fame ; and therefore if four Dice are thrown at
once, the Chance of throwing an Ace will be the fame as that of
throwing it with one and the fame Die in four fuccefiive throws.
This being premifed, we may transfer the notion that was
introduced concerning white and black faces, in the Dice, to the
throwing or miffing of any point or points upon thofe Dice ; and
therefore in the prefent cafe of throwing an Ace with four Dice, we
may fuppofe that the Ace in each Die anfwer to one white face,
and the reft of the points to five black faces, that is, we may fup
pofe that a r=r 1, and ^ ;= 5 ; and therefore, having raifed a A; b
to its fourth power, which is rt"* \ \a'^b f 6^'/^ J d^ab" \ b^,
every one of the terms wherein a is perceived will be a part of the
number of Chances whereby an Ace may be thrown. Now there
are four of thofe parts into which a enters, viz. a* \ /^a'b \ ba^b^
•\ i^ab'^^ and therefore having made a z=i\, and ^ = 5, we fliall
have I Ar 20 \ 150 j 500 = 671 to exprefs the number of Chances
whereby an Ace may be thrown with four Dice, or an Ace thrown
in four fuccefTive throws of one fingle Die : but the number of all
the Chances is the fourth power of a \ by that is the fourth power
of 6, which is 1296 ; and therefore the Probabihty required is mea
fured by the fraction j^ , which is conformable to the refolution.
given in the 3"^ cafe of the queflions belonging to the lo*** Art,
It
2ij. Ihe Doctrine ^j/'Chances.
It Is to be obferved, that the Solution would have been fliorter, if
inftead of inquiring at firfl: into the Probability of throwing an Ace
in four throws, the Probability of its contrary, that is the Probabi
lity of miffing the Ace four times fucceffively, had been inquired
into : for fince this cafe is exadly the fame as that of miffing all
the Aces with four Dice, and that the laft term M of the Binomial
a ^b raifed to its fourth power exprefles the number of Chances
whereby the Ace may fliil in every one of the Dice j it follows, that
the Probability of that failinp; is =r=rv = "TT^T" > and therefore
the Probability of not failing, that is of throwing an Ace in four
, . (izc 1206 — 62c 671
throws, is I — r= —  — r— ^ = •
' 1 zqo izg6 1290
From hence it follows, that let the number of Dice b e what it
will, fuppofe ;;, then the laft term of the power a \ b\ \ that is
b\ will always reprefent the number of Chances whereby the Ace
may fail n times, whether the throws be confidered as fucceffive or
cotemporary : Wherefore ' ^^i;^;, is the Probability of that failing ;
and confequently the Probability of throwing an Ace in a number of
throws expreffed by n, will be i — ^ ■ = — , .. .
Again, fuppofe it be required to affign the Probability of throw
ing with one fingle Die two Aces in four throws, or of throwing
at once two Aces with four Dice : the queftion will be anfwered by
help of the Binomial a \ b raifed to its fourth power, which being
a^ ^ ^ab  6rt*^* \ ^ab^ \ b'^, the three terms «*  ^a'b + ba^'b'
wherein the Indices of ^ equal or exceed the number of times that
the Ace is to be thrown, ^vill denote the number of Chances where
by two Aces may be thrown ; wherefore having interpreted ^ by i,
and b by 5, the three terms abovewritten will become i \ 20 \ 1 50
— 17 1, but the whole number of Chances, 'viz. a \ b\ '^ is in this cafe
— 1296. and therefore the Probability of throwing two Aces in four
throws will be meafured by the fradlion — ^ .
But if we chufe to take at firft the Probability of the contrary,
it is plain that out of the five terms that the fourth power of a \ b
confifts of, the two terms 4^/75 \ b'^ ; m the lirft of which a enters but
once, and in the fecond of which it enters not, will exprefs the num
ber of Chances that are contrary to the throwing of two Aces ; which
pumber of Chances will be found equal to 500 1 625 = 1125.
And therefore the Probability of not throwing two Aces in four
throws
The Doctrine <?/" Chances. 25
1 1 21;
throws will be 7^: from whence may be deduced the Proba
bility of doing it, which therefore will be i —
1 \ 2C 1296 1 I 2?
1290 1296
= ^^ as it was found in the preceding paragraph ; and this
agrees with the Solution of the fixth Cafe to be feen in the 10"'
Article.
Univerfally, the laft term of any power a^h^' being b\ and
the laft but one being nab"—^, in neither of which a^ enters, it fol
lows that the two lafl terms of that power exprefs the number of
Chances that are contrary to the throwing of two Aces, in any num
ber of throws denominated by n ; and that the Probability of throw
. .., , tiab ■+■* '? h 01 — nab — b
m? two Aces will be i — , ^>,„ = .v, .
And likewife, in the three laft terms of the power a\ B^ \ every
one of the Indices of a will be lefs than 3, and confequently thofe
three laft terms will ftiew the number of Chances that are contrary
to the throwing of an Ace three times in any number of Trials de
nominated by n : and the fame Rule will hold perpetually.
And thefe conclufions are in the fame manner applicable to the
happening or failing of any other fort of Event in any number of
times, the Chances for happening and failing in any particular Trial
being refpeflively reprefented by a and b.
16. Wherefore we may lay down this general Maxim ; that fup
poling two Adverfaries A and B contending about the happening of
an Event, whereof^ lays a wager that the Event will happen /times
in « Trials, and B lays to the contrary, and that the number of
Chances whereby the Event may happen in any one Trial are a, and
the number of Chances whereby it may fail are^, then fo many of the
laft terms of the power a ^ A" expanded, as are reprefented by /,
will fhew the number of Chances whereby B may win his wager.
Again, B laying a wager that A will not win / times, does the
fame thing in effed as if he laid that A will not win above / — i
times ; but the number of winnings and lofings between A and B
is n by hypotheiis, they having been fuppofed to play n times, and
therefore fubtrafting / — i from «, the remainder n — / + i will
fliew that B himfelf undertakes to win n — I •{ i times ; let this re
mainder be called />, then it will be evident that in the fame
manner as the laft terms of the power a j^V expanded, viz, b" j
E nab
26 The Doctrine ©/"Chances.
nab"^ 4 Y X^^r^ a^b'", &c. the number whereof is /, do
exprcfs the number of Chances whereby B may be a winner, fo the
firft terms a" Y na'—^b + 7 X "^^ a —''b'', &c. the number.
whereof is />, do exprefs the number of Chances whereby A may
be a winner.
17. If A and B being at play, refpedively want a certain number
of Games / and p of being up, and that the refpeftive Chances they
have for winning any one particular Game be in the proportion of
aio b', then raifing the Binomial ^  ^ to a power whofe Index
fhall hQ I \ p — I, the number of Chances whereby they may
refpedlively win the Set, will be in the fame proportion as the Sum
of fo many of the firft terms as are exprefled by p, to the Sum of
fo many of the laft terms as are exprefled by /.
This will eafily be perceived to follow from what was faid in the
preceding Article ; for when A and B refpedtively undertook to win
/ Games and p Games, we have proved that if n was the number
of Games to be played between them, then p was neccflarily equal
to n — / + I, and therefore I \ pz=n \ i, and ti=^ I \p — i ;
and confequently the power to which a \ b h to be raifed will be
l^p—x.
Thus fuppofing that A wants 3 Games of being up, and B 7,
that their proportion of Chances for winning any one Game are re
fpeftively as 3 to 5, and that it were required to affign the proportion
of Chances whereby they may win the Set ; then making 7=3,
^ = 7, <zr=:3, b z=i ^, and raifing a { b to the power denoted by
I ] p — I, that is in this cafe to the 9'*" power, the Sum of the firft
I feven terms will be to the Sum of the three laft, in the proportion
of the rcfpedive Chances whereby they may win the Set.
Now it will be fufficient in this cafe to take the Sum of the three
laft terms; for fince that Sum exprefles the number of Chances
whereby B m.ay win the Set, then it being divided by the 9'^ power
of a \ b^ the quotient will exhibit the Probability of his winning ;
and this Probability being fubtradled from Unity, the remainder will
exprefs the Probability of A^ winning : but the three laft terms of
the Binomial a [ b raifed to its 9*'' power are b^  gab^ \ ^6aab'',
which being converted into numbers make the Sum 378 12500, and
the 9'^ power of a J[ b is 1342 17728, and therefore the Probability
of B'5 winning will be exprefled by the fradion "ij^^'AyTs ^^^
■^^''^'^^ : let this be fubtradled from Unity, then the remainder
•J3SS443*
24101 ^,07
33554432
7he Doctrine ©/"Chances. 27
''^'°'^°'^ • will exprefs the Probability of A^ winnln? : and therefore
the Odds of A" being up before B, are in the proportion of 24101307
to 9453 125, or very near as 23 to 9 : which agrees with the Solu
tion of the 10 "^ Cafe included in the lo'*" Article.
In order to compleat the comparifon between the two Methods
of Solution which have been hitherto explained, it will not be im
proper to propcfe one cafe more.
Suppofe therefore it be required to aflign the Probability of throw
ing one Ace and no more, with four Dice thrown at once.
It is vifible that if from the. number of Chances whereby one
Ace or more may be thrown, be fubtradted the number of Chances
whereby two Aces or more may be thrown, there will remain the
number of Chances for throwing one Ace and no more ; and there
fore having raifed the Binomial a 1 b to its fourth power, which is
«+  i^a^b  tab^ \ /^ab'^ \ b*, it will plainly be feen that the four
firft terms exprefs the number of Chances for throwing one Ace or
more, and that the three firfl terms exprefs the number of Chances
for throwing two Aces or more ; from whence it follows that the
fingle term 4^^' does alone exprefs the number of Chances for throw
ing one Ace and no more, and therefore the Probability required
will be : p TT r= —  =r — ^ : which agrees witli the Solution
of the 7"' Cafe given in the 10"* Article.
This Conclufion might alfo have been obtained another way : for
applying what has been faid in general concerning the property of
any one term of the Binomial a \ b raifed to a power given, it will
thereby appear that the term ^ab^ wherein the indices of a and b
are refpediively i and 3, will denote the number of Chances where
by of two contending parties A and B, the firfl may win once, and
the other three times. Now A who undertakes that he fhall win
once and no more, does properly undertake that his own Chance
fhall come up once, and his adverHiry's three times; and therefore
the term 4^^' expreffes the number of Chances for throwing one
Ace and no more.
In the like manner, if it be required to affign the Chances for
throwing a certain number of Aces, and it be farther required that
there fl ull no t be above that number, then one fingle term of the
power ^ \ b^ " will always anfwcr tlie queftion.
Bit to find that term as expeditioufly as poffiblc, fuppofe n to
be the number of Dice, and / the precife number of Aces to be
thrown ; then if / be lefs than — «, write as many terms of the
E 2 Series
7he Doctrine <?/"Chances.
&c. as there are Units
»— 3
•—4
28
Series^, ^, J ,
in/; or if / be greater than  n, write as many of them as there arc
Units in ^ « — /j then let all thofe terms be multiplied together,
and the produd be again multiplied by a'b—^ ; and this lafl: produdt
will exhibit the term expreffing the number of Chances required.
Thus if it be required to affign the number of Chances for throw
ing precifely three Aces, with ten Dice ; here /will be = 3, and
n ■== \o. Now becaufe / is lefs than ^ «, let fo many terms be
taken of the Series
&c. as there are
Units in 3, which terms in this particular cafe will be — , 1 — •
1 2 ' 3 '
let thofe terms be multiplied together, the produdl will be 120 j
let this product be again multiplied by a'b''—', that is {a being =: i,
^ = 9, /= 3, « = 10) by 6042969, and the new produd: will
be 725156280, which confequently exhibits the number of Chances
required. Now this being divided by the 10'" power of ^ \ b, that
is, in this cafe, by looocoooooo, the quotient 0.0725156280 will
cxprefs the Probability of throwing precifely three Aces with ten Dice ;
and this being fubtradled from Unity, the remainder 0.9274843720
will exprefs the Probability of the contrary; and therefore the Odds
againft throwing three Aces precifely with ten Dice are 9274843720,
to 725156280, or nearly as 64 to 5.
Although we have fhewn above how to determine univerfally the
Odds of winning, when two Adverfaries being at play, refpedtively
want certain number of Games of being up, and that they have
any given proportion of Chances for winning any fingle Game ; yet
I have thought it not improper here to annex a fmall Table, (hew
ing thofe Odds, when the number of Games wanting, does not exceed
fix, and that the Skill of the Contenders is equal.
Games
Odds of
Games
Odds of
Games Odds of
wanting.
winning.
wanting.
winning.
wanting, winning.
I, 2  
 .^> J
2. 3 
 ^^ 5
3, 5   99, 29
I' 3  
 7. I
2, 4 
 26, 6
3, 6   219, 37
I, 4  
 M. '
2, 5 
 57^ 7
4. 5   163, 93
^ 5 
 3^ I
2, 6 
 120, 8
4, 6   382, 130
I, 6
 ft'' 1
3' 4 
 42. 22
5, 6   638, 386
Before
The Doctrine^?/" Chances. 29
Before I put an end to this Introdudlion, it will not be impro
per to fhew how fome operations may often be contradted by barely
introducing one fingle Letter, inftead of two or three, to denote the
Probability of the happening of one Event.
18. Let therefore x denote the Probability of one Event; j, the
Probability of a fecond Event ; ^, the Probability of the happening
of a third Event : then it will follow, from what has been faid in
the beginning of this Introduction, that i — x, i — y\ i — z
will reprefent the refpe<flive Probabilities of their failing.
This being laid down, it will be eafy to anfwer the Queflions of
Chance that may arife concerning thofe Events.
1°. Let it be demanded, what is the Probability of the happening
of them all ; it is plain by what has been demonftrated before, that
the anfwer will be denoted by xyz.
2°. If it is inquired, what will be the Probability of their all
failing ; the anfwer will bei — x y. i — y y. j — 2;, which being
expanded by the Rules of Multiplication would be i — x — y — z
f xy \ xz \ yz — xyz ; but the firfl expreffion is more eafily
adapted to Numbers.
3'. Let it be required to aflign the Probability of fome one of
them or more happening ; as this queftion is exaftly equivalent to
this other, what is the Probability of their not all failing ? the anfwer
will be I — 1 — XX I — y X 1 — 2;, which being expanded will
become x \ y \ z — xy — xz ■ — • yz \ xyz.
4°. Let it be demanded what is the Probability of the happening
of the firft and fecond, and at the fame time of the failing of the
third, the Queftion is anfwered by barely writing it down algebrai
cally ; thus, xy X I — z, or xy — xym : and for the fame reafon the
Probability ofthe happening ofthe firft and third, and the failing of the
fecond, will he xz x 1 — ^ or xy — xyz : and for the fame reafon
again, the Probability of the happening of the fecond and third,
and the failing of the firft, will be yz x i — x, or yz — xyz. And
the Sum of thofe three Probabilities, viz. xy \ xz \ yz — 3.y)'2:.
will exprefs the Probability of the happening of any two of them,
but of no more than two.
5°. If it be demanded what is the Probability of the happening
of the fiift , to the exclufion of the other two, the anfwer will be
X X I — y XI — z, or X — xy — xz ] xyz ; and in the fame man
ner, the Probability of the happening of the fecond to the exclu
fion of the other two, will be ^ — xy — yz f xyz ; and again,^
the Probability of the happening of the third, to the exclufion of the.
other
3© 'Jthe Doctrine o/" Chances.
other two, will be z — xz — yz •\ xyz, and the Sum of all thefc
Probabilities together, liiz. x \ y \ z — 2xy — 2xz — 2yz •\ T,xyz
will exprefs the Probability of the happening of any one of them,
and of the failing of the other two : and innumerable cafes of the
fame nature, belonging to any number of Events, may be folved
without any manner of trouble to the imagination, by the mere
force of a proper Notation.
Remark.
I, When it is required to fum up fevcral Terms of a high Power
of the Binomial a \ b, and to divide their Sum by that Power, it
will be convenient to write i and q for a and b; having taken
q'. 1 : : b '.a '. and to ufe a Table of Logarithms.
As in the Example of Art. ly^^, where we had to compute
'"^'^t + ^^r' ' ^ ^^^"S —  3. ^ = 5 > we fhallhave y = i , and,
inftead of the former, we are now to compute the quantity
Now the Fador q^ \ gq ^ 36 being ^ } ^ + 36 = i?i ,
Whofe Logarithm is L. 484 — L. 9 r=   1,7306029
Add the Log. of q'^, or y xL. 5 ~ L. ^ =   i.5<^29409
And from the Sum     32835438
Subtradl the Log. of 7*4^ '> or 9 x L.2 — L. 3 = 3.8337183
So ihall the Remainder   ,   — 1.4498255
be the Logarithm of B's chance, viz. 0.281725
And the Complement of this to Unity 0.718275 is the Chance of
A, in that Problem of Jrt. 1 7'''.
An Operation of this kind will ferve in moft cafes that occur : but
if the Power is very high, and the number of terms to be fummed
cxceffively great, we muft have recourfe to other Rules , which
fhall be given hereafter.
IL When the Ratio of Chances, which we (hall call that of R to
S, comes out in larger numbers than we have occafion for ; it may
be reduced to its leajl exaSleJi Terms, in the Method propofed by
Dr. Wallis, Huygens, and others. As thus ;
Divide the greater Term jR by the lefler S ; the lafl: Divifor by
the Remainder , and fo on continually, as in finding a common
Divifor : and let the feveral Quotients, in the order they arife, be
reprefented
7/5^ Doctrine <9/" Chances. 31
reprefented by the Letters a, b, c, d, e, &c. Then the Ratio ^ ,
of the lefler Term to the greater, will be contained in this fradion
al Series.
d^x
e + isc.
whofe Terms, from the beginning, being reduced to one Fraflion,
will perpetually approach to the juft Value of the Ratio ^> differ
ing from it in excefs and in defeSi, alternately : fo that if you flop at a
Denominator that ftands in the i'', 3'', 5'\ Off. place j as at a, c,
e, &c. the Refult of the Terms will exceed the juft Value of the
Ratio ^ ; but if you ftop at an even place, as at ^, d^ /, &c. it
will fall fhort of it.
Example I.
If it is required to reduce the Ratio juft now found frg^ »
or i^ ^ = — j to lower Terms , and which (hall exhibit its
juft Quantity the neareft that is poffible in Terms fo low : The
Quotients, found as above, will bej a =2, b^i, c = i, ^=4,
<?^ ij/=i,^ = 5 And,
i'. The firft Term 1 , or — , gives the Ratio too great ; becaufe
its confequent a is too little.
2°. The Refult of the two firft Terms 7:^7 = ^^ = j . is lefs
T T
than ^ , altho' it comes nearer it than ^ did : becaufe j = r,
which we added to the Denominator 2, exceeds its juft Quantity
6+ i_
c+(sfc.
5°. The three firft Terms ^^ = ~^ ; which reduced are
C I
j^ = ~ exceeds the Ratio j, becaufe what we added tt>
2
32 7^^ Doctrine ^ Chances.
the Denominator b exceeding its juft Quantity f^ calces
jqp2 too little, and confequently the whole Fradion too great.
c
In the fame manner, the following Approximation
Q
7 ^1 — 7+ 7 = Tj > tho' juftcr than the pre
^j 1 1 + I
d . ^
ceding, errs a little in defecft. And fo of the reft.
But to fave unneceflary trouble ; and to prevent any miftake ei
ther in the Operation itfelf, or in diftinguIlLing the Ratios that ex
ceed or fall fhort of their juft Quantity ; we may ufe Mr. Cotes's
Rule ; which is to this purpofe.
Write S : R2Li the head of two Columns, under the T'ltXes greater,
and lefs. And place under them the two firft Ratios that are
found ; as in our Example 1:2, and 1:3 Multiply the
Terms of this laft Ratio by the third Denominator f, and write
the Products under the Terms of the firft Ratio 1:2. So £hall
the Sums of the Antecedents and Confequents give a jufter Ratio
2 : 5, belonging to the lefthand Column. Multiply the terms
of this laft by the 4"' Quotient d (= 4), and the Produds added
to I : 3 give the Ratio 9:23, belonging to the righthand Co
lumn. This laft multiplied by e (= i), and the Produds transfer
red to the left hand Column, and added to the Ratio that ftood laft
there, give the Ratio 11 : 28. And fo of the reft, as in the
Scheme below.
greater
S : R
S
lefs
: R
i— I :
a
I :
2
3
I
• 3 ^ i ,
X c 1 ^7
2 :
5>
'd —
4
8
: 20
9 :
23
2«X
f
I
9
1 1
: 23 X f I
: 28
100 :
25?
20
'' S» Xg — s
III ; 283 &c.
This Method is particularly ufeful, when furd numbers, which
h^ve no Termination at all, enter into any Solution.
Example
Tie Doctrine e/" Chances, 33
Example II.
It will be found In the Refolution of our firft Problem that the
proportion of Chances there inquired into ( j) is that of i to Va — i^
or of 1 to 0.259921 &c. Whence our Quotients will bej tf = j»
^=j, <:=5, J=i, ^ = i,/=4, &c.
And the Operation will ftand as below.
greater
S : R
lefs
S : R
=1:3
< : 20
X f 5 *
6 : 23 X</— .
I 6 : 23
7 : 27
7 : 27
X ^ = 1
J3 : 50
x/ 4
52 : 200
Off.
59 : 227
End of the IntroduSiion^
Solutions
35
Solutions of feveral forts of Problems, deduced from
the Rules laid down in the Introdudion.
PROBLEM I.
Jf A and B play isoith fingh Bowls y and fuch be the Jkill
of A that he knows by Experience he can give B two
Games out of three ; what is the proportion of their
Jkill J or what are the Odds^ that A may get any one
Game ajfgnedf
Solution.
ET the proportion of Odds be as z to i ; now fince A
can give B 2 Games out of 3, y^ therefore may upon
an equality of Play undertake to win 3 Games
together : but the probability of his winning the ikft
time is —7, and, by the %th Article of the IntroduElioriy.
the probability of his winning three times together is ^ — x ?
x ^ ? , or _^ ,, . Again, becaufe A and E are fuppofed to play
upon equal terms, the probability which A has of winning three
times together ought to be expreffed by — ; we have therefore the
Equation ■ = ^ , otzz^^=.z fi^', and extrading the cube
root on both fides, z^i ^z \ \\ wherefore s = , andcon
fequently the Odds that A may get any one Game affigned are as
to I, or as I to >/2 — i, that is in this cafe as 50 to 13 ve
ry ncar^ F 2 Corol
36 The Doctrine <?/ Chances.
Corollary.
By the fame procefs of inveftigation as that which has been ufcd
in this Problem, it will be found that if A can, upon an equality of
Chance, undertake to win n times together, then he may juftly lay
n
the Odds of I to V 2 — i, that he wins any one Game afligned.
PROBLEM II.
If ^ can without advajttage or difadvantage give B i
Game out of 3 ; what are the Odds that A poall take
a?ty one Game ajftgnedf Or in other terms ^ what is the
proportion of the Chances they refpeSiively have of win
ning any one Game ajjigned f Or what is the propor
tion of their Jkillf
Solution.
Let the proportion be as 2; to i : and llnce A can give B i Game
out of 3 ; therefore A can upon an equality of play undertake to win
3 Games before J5 gets 2: now it appears, by the ly'*" Art, of the
LitroduSlion, that in this cafe the Binomial z '\ \ ought to be
raifed to its fourth power, which will be z'^\/[.z^ } 6zz } 45; } i j
and that the Expedlation of the firft will be to the Expectation of
the fecond, as the two firft terms to the three laft : but thefe £x
pe(flations are equal by hypothefis, therefore 2* f 423 ^^z tzz \
i^z\ i: which Equation being folved, z will be found to be 1.6
very near; wherefore the proportion required will be as 1.6 to i,
or 8 to 5.
PROBLEM in.
To find in how many Trials an Event will probably happen^
or how many Trials will be necejfary to make it indiffe
rent to lay on its Happening or Failing ; fuppoftng that
a is the number of Chances for its happening in any o?ie
Trialy and b the 7 lumber of Chances for its failing.
Solution.
Let X be the number of Trials; then by the 16'* Art. of the
Jntrod. b" will reprcfent the number of Chances for the Event to fail
X times fucceflively, and a\b) " the whole number of Chances for
happen
*The Doctrine ^Chances. 37
happening or failing, and therefore . reprefents the probabi
lity of the Event's falling x times together: but by fuppofition
that Probability is equal to the probability of Its happening once at
lead in that number of Trials ; wherefore either of thofe two Pro
babilities may be exprefTed by the fradion — : we have therefore
the Equation = =f , or a \ bY = 2b\ from whence is de
duced the Equation x log. a ^ b = x log. b ■\ log. 2 ; and therefore
Log. a •\ b — log. b
Moreover, let us reaflume the Equation "7+7)' = 2^', where
in let us fuppofc that a, b : : i, y ; hence the faid Eq uation will
be changed into this i + "*' =2. Or at x log. 14^= log. a.
In this Equation, if y be equal to i, x will likewife be eq ual to i ;
but if q differs from Unity, let us in the room of log. i } 
write its value expreffed In a Series ; viz.
I A^ L + J L. &c
We have therefore the Equation — — — , 6cc. = log. 2. Let us
now fuppofe that q is infinite, or pretty large in refpeft to Vnity^
and then the firft term of the Series will be fufficient; we fhall
therefore have the Equation^ = log. 2, or x = y log. 2. But
it Is to be obferved in this place that the Hyperbolic, not the Ta
bular, Logarithm of 2, ought to be taken, which being 0.693, &c.
or 0.7 nearly, it follows that x = oqq nearly.
Thus we have afligned the very narrow limits within which the
ratio of >: to ^ is comprehended ; for it begins with unity, and ter
minates at laft in the ratio of 7 to 10 very near.
But X foon converges to the limit 0.75', fo that this value of x
may be affumed in all cafes, let the value of q be what It will.
Some ufes of this Problem will appear by the following Examples.
Example i.
hct it be propofed to find in how viany throias one may undertake
with an equality oj Chance, to throiv two Aces with two Dice.
The number of Chances upon two Dice being 36, out of which
there is but one chance for two Aces, it follows that the number of
Chances
38 7T)e Doctrine of Chances.
Chances agalnft it is 35; multiply therefore 3 5 by 0.7, and the
produd 24.5 will fhew that the number of throws requifite to that
effed will be between 24 and 25.
Example 2.
To find in how many throws of three Dice, one may undertake
to throw three Aces.
The number of all the Chances upon three Dice being 216, out
of which there is but one Chance for 3 Aces, and 2 1 5 againft it,
it follows that 215 ought to be multiplied by 0.7; which being
done, the produdl 150.5 will fhew that the number of Throws
requifite to that effed will be 150, or very near it.
Example 3.
In a Lottery whereof the number of blanks is to the number of prizes
as 2,^ to I, {fuch as was the Lottery in 17 10) to find how many
Tickets one mufl take to make it an equal Chance for one or more
Prizes.
Multiply 39 by 0.7, and the produdl 27.3 will fhew that the num
ber of Tickets requifite to that efFedl will be 27 or 28 at mofl.
Likewife in a Lottery whereof the number of Blanks is to the
number of Prizes as 5 to i, multiply 5 by 0.7, and the produdt
3.5 will fhew that there is more than an equality of Chance in 4
Tickets for one or more Prizes, but lefs than an equality in three.
Remark.
In a Lottery whereof the Blanks are to the Prizes as 39 to i, if
the number of Tickets in all were but 40, the proportion above
mentioned would be altered, for 20 Tickets would be a fufficient
number for the juft Expectation of the fingle Prize ; it being evi
dent that the Prize may be as well among the Tickets which are taken,
as among thofe that are left behind.
Again if the number of Tickets in all were 80, ilill prefervlng
the proportion of 39 Blanks to one Prize, and confequently fup
pofing 7* Blanks to 2 Prizes, this proportion would flill be altered;.
for by the Dodlrine of Combinations, whereof we are to treat after
wards, it will appear that the Probability of taking one Prize or
both in 20 Tickets would be but ^ , and the Probability of ta
king none would be ^ ; wherefore the Odds againft taking any
^rize would be as 177 to 139, or very near as 9 to 7» And
Use Doctrine o/'Chances. 39
And by the fame Dcxftrine of Combinations, it will^be found that
23 Tickets would not be quite fufhcient for the Expedation of a
Prize in this Lottery; but that 24 would rather be too many: fo
that one might with advantage lay an even Wager of taking a Prize
in 24 Tickets.
If the proportion of 39 to i be oftner repeated, the number of
Tickets requisite for the equal Chance of a Prize, will flill increafe
with that repetition; yet let the proportion of 39 to i be repeated
never fo many times, nay an infinite number of times, the number of
Tickets requifile for the equal Chance of a Prize would never exceed
— of 39, that is about 27 or 28.
Wherefore if the proportion of the Blanks to the Prizes is often
repeated, as it ufually is in Lotteries ; the number of Tickets requifite
for a Prize will always be found by taking — of the proportion of
the Blanks to the Prizes.
Now in order to have a greater variety of Examples to try this
Rule by, I have thought fit here to annex a Lemma by me pub
lifhed for the firft time in the year 171 1, and of which the in
veftigation for particular reafons was deferred till I gave it in my
Mifcellanea Analytica anno 1 73 1.
Lemma.
' To find bow many Chances there are upon any number of Dice, each
of them of the fame number of Faces, to throw any given number of
points.
Solution.
Let^ f I be the number of points given, n the number of Dice,
y the number of Faces in each Die : make /» — /= q, q — f=^ r,
r — y = J> i — /==^> &c. and the number of Chances required will be
+ f "■^''V'^^'^
— X 1 X , &C.
I 2 3 »
n
X —
I
1 r r — I r — 2 g
X X , &C.
12 3 '
j» n — I
X — X
1 Z
 ; X ';■ X ' , &c.
n t> — I
X— X
I 2
» 2
X
3
i&c.
Which Series's ought to be continued till fome of the Fadors in each
produdl become either = o, or negative.
^ N.B.
40 'The Doctrine o/* Chances.
N. B. So many Fadlors are to be taken in each of the produdls
— X .^^ x^— ^, &c. — X ^^^ X ^^ , &c. as there are Units
in « — 1.
Thus for Example, let it be required to find how many Chances
there are for throwing 1 6 Points with four Dice ; then making p\ 1
= i6, we have />= 15, from whence the number of Chances re
quired will be found to be
+r«^^f = + 455
0874 
— 2xx X— =r — ^•?6
123 I •^•^
+ 1 xi. X ± X 1 X 1 = 4 6
But 455 — 336^6=125, and therefore one hundred and twenty
five is the number of Chances required.
Again, let it be required to find the number of Chances for
throwing feven and twenty Points with fix Dice ; the operation
will be
A.JLy,2L^J± x^xiL =465780
T^ I 2 3 4 s I Jf
20 iq 18 17 16 6 ^^^^ .
i_x— X — X— i X — X— = — 93024.
I 2 3 4 5 I yj T
. ^x^xIixLLxIlxl x^ =+30030
87 6? 465 4
X X— xl X X— X x=: — 1 120
12 3 4 5 ' 2 3
Wherefore 65780 — 93024 \ 30030 — 1 120 = 1666 is the num
ber of Chances required.
Let it be farther required to afllgn the number of Chances for
throwing fifteen Points with fix Dice.
JUJix— X — X — X — =4 2002
'12 3 4 5 '
__lx^xixix±xl=336
I 2 3 4 5 « ^^
But 2002 336 = 1666 which is the number required.
Corollary.
All the points equally diftant from the Extremes, that is from
the lead and greatefl: number of Points that are upon the Dice,
have the fame number of Chances by which they may be produ
ced ; wherefore if the number of points given be nearer to the
greater Extreme than to the lefi"er, let the number of points given
be
The Doctrine o/* Chances. 41
be fubtraded from the Sum of the Extremes, and work with the re
mainder ; by which means the Operation will be Shortened.
Thus if it be required' to find the number of Chances for throw
ing 27 Points with 6 Dice: let 27 be fubtradtcd from 42, Sum of
the Extremes 6 and 36, and the remainder being 15, it maybe
concluded that the number of Chances for throwing 27 Points is the
fame as for throwing 1 5 Points.
Although, as I have faid before, the Demonftration of this Lemma
may be had from my Mifcellanea ; yet I have thought fit, at the
defire of fome Friends, to transfer it to this place.
Demonstration.
1°. Let us imagine a Die fo conftituted as that there (hall be upon
it one fingle Face marked i , then as many Faces marked 1 1 as there
are Units in r, and as many Faces marked 1 1 1 as there are Units in
rr, and fo on ; that the geometric Progreffion i \ r \ rr \ r'^ \
r+ \ r^ \ r^ Ar r'' \ r^ 6cc. continued to fo many Terms as there
are different Denominations in the Die, may reprefent all the Chances
of one Die : this being fuppofed, it is very plain that in order to have
all the Chances of two fuch Dice, this ProgrefTion ought to be raifed
to its Square, and that to have all the Chances of three Dice, the
fame ProgrefTion ought to be raifed to its Cube ; and univerfally,
that if the number of Dice be exprefled by «, that Progreflion
ought accordingly to be raifed to the Power ;z. Now fuppofe the
number of Faces in each Die to be f, then the Sum of that Pro
— /
greflion will be '_^  j and confequently every Chance that can
happen upon n Dice, will be exprefled by fome Term of the Series
_ /
that refults from the Fradlion _^ raifed to the power n. But
as the leafl number of Points, that can be thrown with n Dice, is n
Units, and the next greater n\i, and the next Ji \ 2, Sec. it is
plain that the firfl: Term of the Series will reprefent the number of
Chances for throwing « Points, and that the fecond Term of the Se
ries will reprefent the number of Chances for throwing « \~ i Points,
and fo en. And that therefore if the number of Points to be thrown
be exprefl"ed hy p \ j, it will be but afTjgning that Term in the
Series of which the diflance from the firft Ihall be exprelTed by
p 4 I — «.
G But
42 "The Doc TRINE (?/'Chances.
But the Series which would refult from the raifing of the Fradllon
_/
 —  to the Power «, is the Produdl of two other Series, whereof
I — r '
i" "41 l" "4' "+2,0 1
one IS I 4 ;/r  7 X ^— rr \  y. —~ x — — r^, &c. the
Other IS i — «r/ +  x — — r'f   x — — x r ■/ + &c.
Wherefore, if thefe two Series be multiplied together, all the Terms
of the produd will feverally anfwer the feveral numbers of Chances
that are upon n Dice,
And therefore if the number of Points to be thrown be exprefled
by ^4 I, it is but colledling all the Terms which are affedted by
the Power r*+'~", and the Sum of thofe Terms will anfwer the
Queftion propofed.
But in order to find readily all the Terms which are affeded by
the Power r^+'~", let us fuppofe, for fhortnefs fake, p \ i — n=z/;
and let us fuppofe farther that Er' is that Term, in the firfl Series,
of which the diflance from its firfl; Term is /; let alfo Dr'—f be
that Term, in the firfl Series, of which the diflance from its firft
Term is / — f, and likewife let Cr'—^f be that Term, in the firfl
Series, of which the diflance from its firfl Term is denoted by / — 2/,
and fo on, making perpetually a regrefs towards the firfl Term. This
being laid down, let us write all thofe Terms in order, thus
• Eri \ V>r'~f + Cri^f + Br' if, &c.
and write underneath the Terms of the fecond Series, in their natu
ral order. Thus
Eri \ Dr'f + Cr'—^f \ Br'?/, &c.
I —nrf + 7 '^ ^'f + 7 X 7 X jrV, Sec.
then multiplying each Term of the firfl Series by each correfponding
Term of the fecond, all the Terms of the produdl, viz.
Erl  nDr' _l JL x ^l^i Cr'   x ^Hl x lZl.Br', Sec.
'12 12 3
will be affefted with the fame power r'
Now the Coefficient E containing fo many favors 7 x LL x
■"+^ &c. as there are Units in/j it is plain, that when the De
nominators of thofe fadors are continued beyond a certain number
of them, denominated by « — i, then the following Denominators
will be «, n\ i, n\2, &c. which being the fame as the firfl
Terms of the Numerators, it follows that if from the value of the
Coefficient E be rejeded thofe Numerators and Denominators which
are
The Doctrine ^Chances. 43
are equal, there will remain out of the Numerators, written in
an inverted order, the Terms n \l — i, n ■\ 1 — 2, n\ /— 3,
&c. of which the laft will be /  i ; and that, out of the Denomi
nators written in their natural order, there will remain i, 2, 3, 4,
5, &c. of which the laft will be « — i : all which things depend
intirely on the nature of an Arithmetic Progrelhon. Wherefore the
firfl Term
Er' IS = ; X J— X ^ _±_K
Now in the room of /, fubftitute its value ^ j 1 — », then Er' ^=z
— X ^p X — ^ , &c. X r^, and in the fame manner will the
lecond Term
— «Dr' be =— i:=^ X ^~^~' X f'^' &c. x nr', and alfo
the third Term
4. ^ X iml Cr/ will be = 1 ±=^ X Iz:±zL x £:::l£^ &c.
X ~ X l^^r/, and fo on. Suppofe now r = i , ^ — f^^q^q — f=:.r^
r — /"= i, &c. and you fhall have the very Rule given in our
Lemma.
Now to add one Example more to our third Problem, let it be
required to find in how many throws of 6 Dice one may undertake
to throw 15 Points precifely.
The number of Chances for throwing 15 Points being 1666, and
the whole number of Chances upon 6 Dice being 46656, it fol
lows that the number of Chances for failing is 44990 j wherefore
dividing 44990 by 1666, and the quotient being 27 nearly, multi
ply 27 by 0.7, and the produdl 18,9 will fhew that the number of
throws requifite to that eflfcdl will be very near 19.
PROBLEM IV.
To find how many Trials are necejfary to make it equally
probable that an Event will happen twice^ /'■^PP^^fi^^g,
that a is the number of Chances for its happenino in
any one Trials and b the munber of Chances for its
faili?ig.
Solution.
Let X be the number of Trials: then from what has been demon
flrated in the i6'h jirt. of the Introd. it follows that b^ j xab^' is
G 2 the
44 Th& Doctrine ^Chances.
the number of Chances whereby the Event may fail, a  /> V' com
prehending the whole number of Chances whereby it may either
happen or fail, and confequently the probability of its failing is
.: but, by Hypothefis, the Probabilities of happening and
failing are equal ; we have therefore the Equation
//
a+n
X
2
, oio\b\'' = 2b'' + zxab^'^y or making a, b :: i.
I " q'''^^^'^~T' ^°w if in this Equation we fuppofe
qz=.ij X will be found =3, and if we fuppofe q infinite, and
alfo  =: 2;, we fhall have the Equation z = log. 2 \ log. i \ z,
q
in which taking the value of z, either by Trial or othcrwife, it will
be found = 1.678 nearly ; and therefore the value of x will always be
between the limits iq and 1.6785', but will foon converge to the laft of
thefe limits ; for which reafon, if q be not very fmall, x may in all
cafes be fuppofed = 1.678^; yet if there be any fufpicion that the
value of X thus taken is too little, fubflitute this value in the original
Equation 1 \ *"'=2+ — , and note the Error. Then if
it be worth taking notice of, increafe a little the value of x, and fub
flitute again this new value of x in the aforefaid Equation ; and
noting the new Error, the value of x may be fufficiently corrected
by applying the Rule which the Arithmeticians call double falfe
Pofition.
Exam p l e i.
T!o find in how many throws of three Dice one may undertake to
throw three Aces twice.
The number of all the Chances upon three Dice being 216, out
of which there is but 1 Chance for three Aces, and 215, againft
it ; multiply 215 by 1.678 and the produdl 360.8 will (hew that the
number of throws requifite to that efFea: will be 361, or very near it.
Example 2.
to find in how many throws of 6 Dice one may undertake to throw
15 Points twice.
The number of Chances for throwing 15 Points is 1666, the
number of Chances for miffing 44990 j let 44990 be divided by
1666,
'The Doctrine 0/ Chances. 45
1666, the Quotient will be 27 very near : wherefore the Chances
for throwing and miffing 15 Points are as i to 27 refpedlively j mul
tiply therefore 27 by 1.678, and the produdl 45.3 will (hew that the
number of Chances requifue to that effed will be 45 nearly.
Example 3.
In a Lottery lohercoj the nwnber of Blanh is to the Number of Prizes
as 29 to I : to Jind how many "ticket a niujl be taken to make it
probable that two or more benefits will be taken as not.
as
Multiply 39 by 1.678 and the produdt 65.4 will fhew that no lefs
than 65 Tickets will be requifite to that effedt.
PROBLEM V.
To Jind how ma?iy Trials are necejfary to make it equally
probable that an Rve7it will happen three^ four^ fivey
&'c. times ; fuppojing that a is the number of Cha?ices
for its happening in any one Trialy a?jd b the 7tumber of
Chances for its failing.
Solution,
Let X be the number of Trials requifite, then fuppofing as be
fore a, b : : J , ff, we fhall have the Equation i \ lA' = 2 x
1 \ — \ — X ill^ , in the cafe of the triple Event ; or
+ l\X I X , X X — 1 , X X 1 ,, x—z
the cafe of the quadruple Event : and the law of the continuation
of thefe Equations is manifefl. Now in the firft Equation if g be
fuppofed = I, then will at be = 5; if ^ be fuppofed infinite or
pretty large in refpeft to Unity, then the aforefaid Equation, mak
ing — = 2;, will be changed into this, z = log. 2 \ log.
I \ z ^ — zz ; vv^herein z will be found nearly 7= 2.675", where
fore X will always be between ^q and 2.675^.
Likewife in the fecond Equation, if q be fuppofed = i, then
will X he = jq; but if q be fuppofed infinite or pretty large in re
^eft to Unity, then z = log. 2 { log, 1 \ z { j zz + f z^;
whence.
46 T^he Doctrine 0/ Chances.
■whence z will be found nearly = 3 6719, wherefore x will be be
tween 7J' and 3.6719^.
A Table of the Limits.
The Value of x will always be
For a fingle Event, between \q and 0.693^
For a double Event, between 3^ and i.ty'iq
For a triple Event, Lt:ween 5^ and 2.6757
Fora quadruple Event, between jq and 3.6727
For a quintuple Event, between gq and 4670^
For a iextuple Event, between i iq and 5.668^
&c.
And if the number of Events contended for, as well as the num
ber q be pretty large in refped: to Unity ; the number of Trials
requifite for thofe Events to happen n times wid be ^"~^ q^ or
barely nq.
Remark.
From what has been faid we may plainly perceive that altho'
we may, with an equality of Chance, contend about the happening
of an Event once in a certain number of Trials, yet we cannot,
without difadvantage, contend for its happening twice in double
that number of Trials, or three times in triple that number, and fo on.
Thus, altho' it be an equal Chance, or rather more than an Equa
lity, that I throw two Aces with two Dice in 25 throws, yet I can
not undertake that the two Aces flrall come up twice in 50 throws,
the number vequifite for it being 58 or 59 ; much lefs can I under
take that they (hall come up three times in 75 throws, the number
requifite for it being between 93 and 94 : fo that the Odds againft the
happening of two Aces in the iirft throw being 35 to i, I cannot un
dertake that in a very great number of Trial?, the happening fliall
be oftner than in the proportion of i to 35. And therefore we may
lay down this general Maxim, that Events at long run will not hap
pen oftner than in the proportion of the Chances they have to hap
pen in any one Trial ; and that if we afTign any other proportion
varying never fo little from that, the Odds againft us will increafe
continually.
To this may be objedted, that from the premifes it would feem
to follow, that if two equal Gamefters were to play together for
a coiifiderable time, they would part without Gain or Lofs on either
fide : but the anfwer is eafy ; the longer they play the greater Pro
bability
The Doctrine <?/'Chances. 47
bability there is of an increafe of abfolute Gain or Lofs ; but at the
fame time, the greater Probability there is alfo of a decreafe, in refpedt
to the number of Games played. Thus if 100 Games produce a dif
ference of 4 in the winnings or lofings, and 200 Games produce a
difference of 6, there will be a greater proportion of Equality in the
fecond cafe than in the firft.
PROBLEM VI.
Thee Gamejlers A, B, C flay together on this conditiotir
that he Jloall ivin the Set who has Joonejl got a certain
number of Games ; the proportion of the Chances iihich
each of them has to get a7iy one Game ajjlgned, or which
is the fa?ne things the proportion of their Jkill^ being re
JpeSiively as a, b, c. Now after they have played foi}ie
time^ they fnd the7?ifelves in this circumfiance^ that A
wants I Game of being up^ B 2 Games^ a?id C 3 Gajnes ;
the whole Stake a?no?igJl them being fuppofed i ; what
is the Expe&ation of each ^
Solution. I.
In the circumftance the Gamefters are in, the Set will be ended
in 4 Games at moft ; let therefore a\ b •\ ch& raifed to the fourth
power, wliich will be a'^ •\ ^a'^b \ 6aabb \ ^ab^  b^ \ ^a'^c \
izaabc j i^b c \ baacc \ \2abcc \ tbbcc j ^ac'^ \ izacbb j
4^c3 f c\
The terms a* ■\ i^a^b \ ^a^c 4" ^aacc \ xiaabc ■\ \2abcc,
wherein the dimenfions of a are equal to or greater than the number
of Games which A wants, wherein alfo the Dimenfions of b and c
are lefs than the number of Games which B and C refpeitively want,
are intirely favourable to A, and are part of the Numerator of his
Expedition.
In the fame manner, the terms b'' \ ^b^c { bbbcc are intirely fa
vourable to B.
And likewife the terms /^bc^ \ c^ are intirely favourable to C.
The reft of the terms are common, as favouring partly one of
the Gamefters, partly one or both of the other ; wherefore thcfc
Terms are fo to be divided into their parts, that the parts, refpedively
fevouring each Gamefter, may be added to his Expedition.
Take
48 ^^ Doctrine 0/ Chances.
Take therefore all the terms which are common, viz. 6aabb, ^ab^,
izabcc, ^ac"^, and divide them adually into their parts ; that is,
1°, taabb into aabb, abab, abba, baab, baba, bbaa. Out ot thefe
fix parts, one part only, viz. bbaa will be found to favour £, for
'tis only in this term that two Dimenfions of b arc placed before
one fingle Dimenfion of a, and therefore the other five parts belong
to A ; let therefore '^aabb be added to the Expetflation of A, and
\aabb to the Expectation of B. 2°. Divide i^ab^, into its parts
^bbb, babb, bbab, bbba ; of thefe parts there are two belonging to
A, and the other two to B; let therefore zab^ be added to the ex
pectation of each. 3". Divide i labbc into its parts ; and eight of
them will belong to A, and 4 to fi ; let therefore ?iabbc be added
to the Expedation of A, and i,abbc to the Expectation of B. 4". Di
vide 4^63 into its pajts, three of which will be found to be favourable
to A, and one to C; add therefore ^ac^ to the Expectation of A, and
Mc5 to the Expectation of C. Hence the Numerators of the feveral
lixpeCtationsofy^, B, C, will be refpeCtively,
j^ ^+ j_ ^a^l; \ ^a''C \ 6aacc \ iiaabc \ iiabcc \ ^aabb
I 2ab^ + ^abbc f ^acK
2. i+ J^ j^b^c + (:>bbcc \ laabb \ 2ab> + ^obcc.
3. 4tbc'^ ] iC^ \ iac^
The common Denominator of all their Expectations hdnga\b{c)*.
Wherefore if a, b, c, arc in a proportion of equality, the Odds
of winning will be refpeCtively as 57, 18, 6, or as 19, 6, 2.
If n be the number of all the Games that are wanting, p the
number of Gamefters, and a, b, c, d, &c. the proportion of the
Chances which each Gamefter has refpeCtively to win any one Game
afligned ; kt a \ b { c \ d, &c. be raifed to the power « \ 1 — />,
and then proceed as before.
Remark.
This is one general Method of Solution. But the fimpler and
more common Cafes may be managed with very little trouble. As,
1°. Let A and B want one game each, and C two games.
Then the following game will either put him in the fame fituation
as A and B, entitling him to ^ of the Stake ; of which there is i
Chance ; or will give the whole Stake X.o Aor B ; and of this there
iX^+zXo
are two Chances. Cs Expectation therefore is worth — ^
(hitrod.
7"^^ Doctrine o/ Chances. 49
(Introl Art. 5.) =• '^^^^ ^^^"'^ ^^^^ ^^^ ^^^^^ '' ^"^ ^^^ ^^'
mainder  , to be divided equally between A and B, makes the ex
pedations oi A, B, C, to be 4, 4, i, refpedively ; to the common
Denominator 9.
2°. Let ^ want i Game, B and C two games each. Then the
next Game will either give A the whole Stake ; or, one of his Ad.
verfaries winning, will reduce him to the Expedlation  , or the
former Cafe. His prefent Expedation therefore is — 2 =—:
and the Complement of this to Unity, viz. ^ , divided equally
between Band C, gives the three Expectations, 17, 5, 5, the com
mon Denominator being 27.
3°. A and B wanting each a Game, let C want 3. In this Cafe,
C has 2 Chances for o, and i Chance for the Expedation — , of Cafe
I. That is, his Expedtation is ^ ; and thofe of yf and B arej^ ,
each.
4°. Let the Games wanting to A, B, and C, be i, 2, 3, re
fpedively : then A winning gets the Stake i ; B winning, A is in
Cafe 3, with the Expedlation ^ , or C winning, he has, as in
Cafe 2, the Expedation ^. Whence his prefent Expedlation is
27
2. X I I ^ _L. _L_ :=, !_
3 ' ; ' 27 «i •
Again, ^ winning, B gets o ; himfelf winning, he acquires {Cafe
3.) the Expedlation ^ . And, C winning, he is in Cafe 2, with
the Expedlation ^ . His prefent Expedlation therefore is 4" ><
o l4r "1" ~^ = 7r ^'^'^ ^^is to the Expedlation of ^, which
was —^i the Sum is ^ : and the Complement of this to Unity,
which is ^ , is the Expedlation of C.
Or to find Cs Expedlation diredlly : A winning, C has o ; B win
ning, he has the Expedlation ;^ , {Cafe 3.) and, himfelf winning,
he has^ , as in Cafe 2 : In all, ^ x o + '77"Hi7= TT'
H And
50 "The Doctrine <?/ Chances.
And thus, afcending gradually through all the inferior Cafes, or
by the general Rule, we may compofe a Table of Odds for 3
Gamfters, fuppofed of equal Skill $ like that for 2 Gamefters in Art,
if'^ of the Introdudion.
Table for 3 Gamejlers.
Games
wanting.
Odds.
Games
wanting.
Odds.
Games
wanting.
Odds.
A. B. C
a. b. c
A B. C.
a. b. c.
^A. B. C.
rt. ^. f.
1 I 2
' ' 3
1 1 4
I I 5
I 2 2
I 3 3
4 4 I
13 '3 1
40 40 I
121 121 ]
\1 5 5
65 8 8
I 2 3
I 2 4
I 2 5
I 3 4
1 3 5
2 2 3
1962
178 58 7
542 179 ^
616 82 31
629 87 13
34 34 ^l
224
2 2 5
233
234
2 3 5
33« 33« 53
353 353 23
133 55 55
451 195 83
H33 635 119
&c.
Solution II. and more General.
It having been objecfled to the foregoing Solution, that when there
are feveral Gamefters, and the number of games wanting amongft
them is conlidcrable ; the Operation muft be tedious ; and that there
may be fome danger of miftake, in feparating and collecting the fe
veral parts of their Expedations, from the Terms of the Multi
nomiil : I invented this other Solution, which was publifhed in the
Vir*' Book of my Mifcellanea Analytica, A. D. 1730.
The Skill of the Gamefters A, B, C, &c. is now fuppofed to be
as a, b. c, 8cc. refpedively : and the Games they want of the Set are^,
o, r, tec. Then in order to find the Chance of a particular Gamefter,
as of A, or his Right in the Stake i, we may proceed as follows.
1°. Write down Unity.
2°. Write down in order all the Letters b, c, d, &c. which denote
the Skill of the Gamefters, excepting only the Letter which belongs
to the Gamefter whofe Chance you are computing; as in our Exam
ple, the Letter a is omitted.
3°. Combine the fame Letters b, c, d, Sec. by two's, three's,
four's, &c.
4°, Of thefe Combinations, leave out or cancel all fuch as make
any Gamefter befides A, the winner of the Set ; that is, which give
to B, q Games ; to C, r Games, to D, s Games, &;c.
r°. Multiply the whole by aPK
6°. Prefix to each Produdt the Number of its Fernmtatiotis, that
is, of the different ways in which its Letters can be written *.
• Of Comlinatkns and Pe/muialmi, See Prob. xiv. &/cfj
7°. Let
7^^ Doctrine (?/* Chances. 51
7°. Let all the Produdls that arc of the fame dimenfion, that is,
which contain the fame number of Letters, be coUefted into different
fums.
8°. Let thefe feveral Sums, from the lowefl: dimenfion upwards, be
divided by the Terms of this Series,
//>', /?, />+■, /i^+2, &c. refpedively: in which Series f='' + ^ +
t+'i+ &c.
9°. Laftly, multiply the Sum of the Quotients by ~ , and the
Produft {hall be the Chance cr Expedlation required ; namely the
Right of y^ in the Stake i. And in the fame way, the Expeifla
tions of the other Gamefters may be computed.
Ex AxM PL E.
Suppofing /> = 2, $' = 3, ^ = 5 j write, as direded in the
Rule,
1, l> \ c, hb\bc\cc, Ibcc + bc^ + c*, bbcf \ bc\ bbc^.
Multiply eacii term by «/*—', which in our Example is a—^, or a;
prefix to each Produft the number of its Permutations, dividing at
the fame time the fimilar Sums by//—', />, //*+', &c. that is hy f,
pipy &c; And the whole multiplied into 4 will give the Ex
pecration ot A^=. — into r  j^ \ j—^ \
\2abbc\\7obcc\iaci ■ ',r flf>cc\zoabc'\^ac* . f<^ahhc'\irnbr^ . T^rnh'^r'
Ji I Ji I p I —J. •
If we now fubftitute for a, b, r, any numbers at pleafure, we fhall
have the anfwer that belongs to thofe iuppofed degrees of Skill. As
if we make « = i, br= i, f ^= i ; the Expedtation of A will be,
L X  A 4A^4il4ii4^4 ^^ = ^^i
3 3 ' 9 ' 27 ' Si ' 245 ' 729 ' 2187 zi6y
And, by like Operations, thofe of B and C will be — ^^ and — ^
' •' ^ ' 21S7 2167
refpedively.
PROBLEM Vn.
Two Gajnejlers A and B, each having 1 2 Counters^ 'play
with three Dice^ on condition that if 1 1 Poijits come up^
B jljqll give one Counter to K\ if i^ Points come up, A
fhall give one Counter to B ; ajid that he pall be the
winner who pall foonefl get all the Cotmters of his Ad
verfary : what is the Probability that each of them
has of winning P
H 2 Sol
5 2 T'he Doctrine (j/" Chances.
Solution.
Let tlie number of Counters which each of them hasbe^=/i;
and let a and b he the number of Chances they have refpedively
for getting a Counter, each cafi; of the Dice : which being fuppofed,
I fay that the Probabilities of winning are refpeilively as al" to bf \
now becaufe in this cafe/'= 12, and that, by the preceding Lemma,
c= 27, and /^r=r 15, it follows that the Probabilities of winning
are refpedively as 27'^ to i j'^*, or as 9'* to 5", or as 2H2429536481
to 244140625 : which is the proportion afligned by Huygens in this
particular cafe, but without any Demondration.
Or more generally :
Let p be the number of the Counters of A, and q the number of
the Counters of B ; and let the proportion of the Chances be as a to b.
I fav that the Probabilities of winning will be refpedively as ai x
iif — he to bf X a'' — b"! ; and confequently the Probabi lities them
(ii X o^ b^i , b^ y. ai — bi
fclves will be ■ ,, 7—7, = i?, and — r rv = S.
Demonstration.
Let it be fuppofed that A has the Counters E, F, G, H, &c. whofe
number is p, and that B has the Counters I, K, L, See. whofe num
ber is q : moreover, let it be fuppofed that the Counters are the
thing played for, and that the value of each Counter is to the value of
the following as a to b, m fuch manner as that E, F, G, H, I, K,
L be in geometric Progreffion ; this being fuppofed, A and B in
every circumfl:ance of their Play may lay down two fuch Counters
as may be proportional to the number of Chances each has to get a
fingle Counter ; for in the beginning of the Play, A may lay down
the Counter H, which is the loweft of his Counters, and B the
Counter I, which is his higheft ; but H, 1 :: a, b, therefore A and B
play upon equal terms. If A beats B, then A may lay down the
Counter I which he has juft got of his adverfary, and B the Coun
ter K ; but I, K : : a, b, therefore A and B ftill play upon equal
terms. But if A lofe the firfl: time, then A may lay down the Counter
G, and B the Counter H, which he juft now got of his adver
fary; but G, H : : a, b, and therefore they ftill play upon equal
terms as before : So that, as long as they play together, they play
without advantage or difadvantage. Now the Value of the Expec
tation which A has of getting all the Counters of B is the produdl
o£
Hoe Doctrine (?/'Chances. 53
of the Sum he expedis to win, and of the probability of obtaining
it, and the fame holds alfo in refpedl to B: but the Expedations
of A and E are fuppofed equal, and therefore the Probabilities which
they have refpedively of winning, are reciprocally proportional to
the Sums they expeft to win, that is, are diredlly proportional to
the Sums they are pofTefled of. Whence the Probability which A
has of winning all the Counters of B, is to the Probability which
B has of winning all the Counters of A, as the Sum of the terms,
E, F, G, H, whofe number is/", t o the Su m of the terms I, K, L,
whofe number is q, that is as ai x cf — b^ to b^ x a'' — b' ■, as will
eafily appear if thofe terms, which are in geometric Progreflion, are
actually fummed up by the known Methods. Now the Probabili
ties of winning are not influenced by the Suppofition here made of
each Counter being to the following in the proportion of ^ to ^ >
and therefore when thofe Counters are fuppofed of equal value, or
rather of no value, but ferving only to mark the number of Stakes
won or loft on either fide, the Probabilities of winning will be the
fame as we have affigned.
'Corollary r.
If we fuppofe both a and b'mz ratio of equality, the expreffions
whereby the Probabilities of winning are determined will be reduced
to the proportion of ^ to y ; which will eafily appear if thofe ex
preffions be both divided by a — b.
Corollary 2.
If A and B play together for a Guinea a Game, and A has but
one fingle Guinea to lofe, but B any number, let it be never fo'
large; \i A in each Game has the Chance of 2 to 1, he is more
likely to win all the Stock of B than to lofe his fingle Guinea ; and
jufl as likely, if the Stock of B were infinite
Remark.
If /> and g, or either of them be large numbers, it will be con
venient to work by Logarithms.
Thus, if A and B play a Guinea a Stake, and the number of
Chances which A has to win each fingle Stake be 43, but the num
ber of Chances, which B has to win it, be 40, and they oblige them
felves to play till fuch time as 10 o Stakes arc won or loft ; (the num
ber^ being =: y nr 100, and therefore the Ratio fought being ^'^°.):
Fromi
£4 ^^ Doctrine 0/ Chances.
From the logarithm of 43 ^^ 1.6334685
Subtract the logarithm of 40 = 1.6020600
Difference = 0.03 14085
Multiply this Difference by the number of Stakes to be played off,
1)1%. 100, the produdt will be 3.1408500, to which anfwers in the
Table of Logarithms 1383 ; therefore the Odds that A beats B are
1383 to I.
Now in all circumftances wherein yf and B venture an equal Sum,
the Sum of the numbers expreffing the Odds, is to their difference,
as the Money played for, is to the Gain of the one, and the Lofs of
the other.
Wherefore, multiplying 1382 difference of the numbers expreffing
the Odds by 100, which is the Sum ventured by each Man, and di
viding the produdt by 1384, Sum of the Numbers expreffing the
Odds, the Quotient will be, within a trifle, 99 Guineas, and 2 Shil
lings, fuppofing Guineas at 21 /■•
If iniltjJ of fuppofing the proportion of the Chances whereby A
and B may refpedlively win a Stake to be as 43 to 40, we fuppofe
them as 44 to 40, or as 1 1 to 10, the Expedation oi A will be worth
above 99 Guineas, 20 Shillings and i Penny.
PROBLEM VIII.
T^'o Gamejlers A and V>lay by 24 Counters., and play with
three Dice., on this conditiofi ; that if 11 Points come
up., A jhall take one Counter out of the heap ; z^ 1 4, B
jhall take out one \ and he jhall be reputed the wifiJier
nvho JImH fconejl get 1 2 Counters.
This Problem differs from the preceding in this, that the Play
will be at an end in 23 Calls of the Die at moft ; (that is, of thofe
Cafts which are favourable either to A or B) whereas in the prece
ding cafe the Counters paffing continually from one hand to the other,
it will often happen that y^and B will be in fome of the fame circum
f! ances they were in before, which will make the length of the Play
unlimited.
SOLUT ION.
Taking a and b in the proportion of the Chances which there are ■
to throw 1 1, and 14, let ^ " '^ ^^ railed to the 23' Power, that is 1
to
I'he Doctrine (?/'Chances. 55
to fuch Power as is denoted by the number of all the Counters want
ing one: then fhall the 12 firfi: terms of that Power be to the 12 laft
in the fame proportion as are the Probabilities of winning.
PROBLEM IX.
Suppofl?ig A and B, 'whofe proportion ojjkill is as a to b, to
play together^ till A either wins the number q of Stakes^
or lofes the number p of thern ; and that B fets at every
Game the Stun G to the Sum L ; it is required to Jind
the Advantage or DiJ advantage of A.
Sol ution.
Firft, Let the number of Stakes to be won or lofl: on either fide
be equal, and let that number be p ; let there be alfo an equality
of fkill between the Gameflers : then I fay that the Gain of A will
be pp X — \ — • , that is the fquarc of the number of Stakes which
either Gamefter is to win or lofe, mukiplied by one half of the diffe
rence of the value of the Stakes. Thus if A and B play till fuch
time as ten Stakes are won or loft, and B fets one and twenty Shil
lings to 20; then the Gain of y^ will be 100 times the half difference
between 21 and 20 Shillings, viz. 50/"
Secondly, Let the number of Stakes be unequal, fo that A be
obliged either to win the number q of Stakes, or to lofe the number
p J let there be alfo an equality of Chance between A and B : then
I fay that the Gain of A will be pq x —  — ; that is the Produdt
of the two numbers of Stakes, and one half the difference of the
value of the Stakes multiplied together. Thus if A and B play
together till fuch time as either A wins eight Stakes or lofes twelve,
then the Gain of yl will be the produft of the two numbers 8 and
12, and of 6 ''^ half the difference of the Stakes, which produdl makes
Ihirdly, Let the number of Stakes be equal, but let the number of
Chances to win a Game, or the Skill of the Gamefters be unequal,
in the p roportion oi a io b ; then I fay that the Gain of A will be
Fourthly, Let the numbei* of Stakes be unequal, and let alfo ther
number of Chances be unequal : then I fay that the Gain of A will
J.T
5 6 I'hQ Doctrine o/" Chances.
Demonstration.
Let R p.ni S refpcdtively reprefent the Probabilities which A and
iB have of winning all tlie Stakes of their Adverfary ; which Pro
babilities have been determined in the vii''' Problem. Let us firffc
fuppofe that the Sums depofited by A and B are equal, viz. G,
and G: now fince A is either to win the Sum ^G, or lofe the Sum
pG, it is plain that the Gain of A ought to be eflimated by R^G
— S/)G ; moreover fince the Sums depofited are G and G, and that
the proportion of the Chances to win one Game is as a to b, it fol
lows that the Gain of A for each individual Game is  ""J , ^ ' ; and
for the fame reafon the Gain of each individual Game would be
" ^'L^^ , if the Sums depofited by A and B were refpedlively L
and G. Let us therefore now fuppofe that'they are L and G;
then in order to find the whole Gain of A in this fecond circum
ftance, we may confider that whether A and B lay down equal
Stakes or unequal Stakes, the Probabilities wliich either of them has
of winning all the Stakes of the other, fuftcr not thereby any alte
ration, and that the Play will continue of the fame length in both
circumftances before it is determined in favour of either ; wherefore
the Gain of each individual Game in the firft: cafe, is to the Gain
of each individual Game in the fecond, as the whole Gain of the
firft cafe, to the whole Gain of the fecond ; and confequently the
whole Gain of the fecond cafe will be R^ — S^ x " '~'^  , or
reftoring the values of R and S, ^^ ^ " ~i. ~ \j^'^ " ~ — mul
tiphed by ^:r^ .
PROBLEM X.
Tl^ree Perjons A, B, C, oui of a heap of 12 Counters^
whereof 4 a?'e white^ and 8 black.^ draw bliftdfold o?je
Counter at a ttme^ i?t this manner ; A begins to draw ;
B follows A ; C follows B ; then A begins again ; and
they continue to draw in the fanie order^ till one of
them who is to be reputed the winner .^ draws the frfl
white. What are the refpeSiive Probabilities of their
'■^inning f
SOLU
7^^ Doctrine o/" Chances. 57
Solution.
Let n be the number of all the Counters, a the number of white,
b the number of black, and i the whole Stake or the Sum plaved
for.
1°. Since A has a Chances for a white Counter, and b Chances
for a black, it follows that the Probability of his winning is — ^
= — ; therefore the Expedation he has upon the Stake i, arifing
from the circumftance he is in, when he begins to draw, is
— X I = — : let it therefore be agreed among the Adventurers,
that A (hall have no Chance for a white Counter, but that he fhall
be reputed to have had a black one, which fliall adually be taken
out of the heap, and that he fhall have the Sum — paid him out
of the Stake, for an Equivalent. Now  being taken out of the Stake
there will remain i — — = ^^^ = — .
n rt n
2°. Since B has a Chances for a white Counter, and that the num
ber of remaining Counters is « — 1, his Probability of winning
will be —^ ; whence his Expedation upon the remaining Stake
 , arifing from the circumftance he is now in, will be
n . n — I
Suppofe it therefore agreed that B fhall have the Sum 
paid him out of the Stake, and that a black Counter fhall alfo be
taken out of the heap. This being done, the remaining Stake will be
 — r— —  or " " ' , but 7ib — ab =: bb i wherefore the re
maining Stake is ■ ~' .
3°. Since C has a Chances for a white Counter, and that the
number of remaining Counters is n — 2, his Probability of winning
will be ^— ^ , and therefore his Expedation upon the remaining
Stake arifing from the circumflance he is now in, will be
LI
• g.i,— ~. „_^; > which we will likewife fuppofe to be paid him out
of the Stake, flill fuppofing a black Counter taken out of the heap.
4°. A may have out of the remainder the Sum ' ~' ~'""
n . n — l.n — 2.n— 3 '
and fo of the refl till the whole Stake be exhaufled.
I Where
58 ItJoe Doctrine (t/* Chances.
Wherefore having written the following general Series, viz.
 \ ^P 1 ^^Q + ^^^R + ^^=^S, &c. wherein P, Q,
R, S, 6cc. denote the preceding Terms, take as many Terms of this
Series as there are Units in /^  i, (for fince b reprefents the number
of black Counters, the number of drawings cannot exceed b ■\ \^
then take for A the firft, fourth, feventh, Sec. Terms ; take for B
the fecond, fifth, eighth, &c. for C the third, fixth, &c, and the
Sums of thofe Terms will be the refpedtive Expectations of A, B,
C ; or becaufe the Stake is fixed, thefe Sums will be proportional to
the refpedive Probabilities of winning.
Now to apply this to the prefent cafe, make ;; r= 12, ^ = 4,
3 = 8, and the general Series will become—— 1 P J — Q 4
f R + Is + fT 1 f U + ^X ^ Y : or multiplying the
whole by 495 to take away the fradlions, the Series will be 165 \ .
1204 84 A 564 35 420 V 10 + 4+ '•
Therefore affigning to A 165 J 56 \ 10 = 23 i, to 5 120 \
35 j 4 = i59i to C 84 4 20 4 I = 105, the Probabilities of
winning will be proportional to the numbers 231, 159, 105, or 77,
If there be never fo many Gamefters A, B, C, D, &c. whether
they take every one of them one Counter or more j or whether the
fame or a different number of Counters; the Probabilities of winning
will be determined by the fame general Series.
Remark I.
The preceding Series may in any particular cafe be (hortened •, for
iftf = i, then the Series will be ^ x 141 + 14^1 ^ + 1 + ^. &c.
Hence it may be obferved, that if the whole number of Coun
ters be exadly divifible by the number of Perfons concerned in
the Play, and that there be but one fingle white Counter in the
whole, there will be no advantage or difadvantagc to any one of
them from the fituation he is in, in refped to the order of draw
ing
If^=2, then the Series will be — — x «— ij«— 2h«— 317;— 4+«— 5,
&c.
If ^ = 3, then the Series will be „ . „_^i . „_^ x
« — I . n — z\n — 2 . n — 3 4~'^—' 3 • '^"4> ^c.
If
7he Doctrine <?/" Chances.
If = 4, then the Series will be ;; — T^i — \
59
2 . «  3
&C.
the feveral
X » — I . « — 2 . n — 3 4 n — 2 . « — 3 . n — 4,
Wherefore rejeding the common Multiplicators ;
Terms of thefe Series taken in due order, will be proportional to the
feveral Expectations of any number of Gamefters : thus in the cafe of
this Problem where « = 12, and ^ = 4, the Terms of the Series will
be.
For A
1 1 X 10 X 9 = 990
8 X 7x6 = 336
5 X 4 X 3= ^o
,386
For B
10
X
9x8 —
720
7
X
6x5
210
4
X
3 x.s —
24
9 X
6 X
1
For C
8x7 = 504
5 X 4 = 120
X 2 X I = 6
954
630
Hence it follows that the Probabilities of winning will be refpedive
ly as 1386, 954, 630, or dividing all by 18, as 'j']^ 53, 35, as had
been before determined.
Remark 2.
But if the Terms of the Series are many, it will be convenient to
fum them up by means of the following Method, which is an imme
diate confequence of the fifth Lemma of Sir Ijaac Neivtons Princi
pia. Book 111 j and of which the Demonftration may be deduced from
his Analyfts.
If there be a Series of Terms, A, B, C, D, E, &c. let each
Term be fubtradled from that which immediately follows it, and
let the Remainders be called firft Differences, then fubtrad each
difference from that which immediately follows it, and let the re
mainders be called fecond differences ; again, let each fecond diffe
rence be fubtraded from that which immediately follows it, and
let the remainders be called third differences, and fo on. Let the
fiifl: of the firil Difference? be called d, the firft of the fecond </,
the firfl: of the third d, Sec. and let x be the interval between the
firft Term A, and any other Term, fuch as E, that is, let the num
ber of Terms from A to E, both inclufive, be x  j , then the Term
kVxd\ Ix^^f
.V X r — I X v ■
I . 2 .
■(/, Sec. From hence
it manifeftly follows, that Itt the number of Terms between A and E
I 2 be
6o The Doctrine o/" Chances.
be never fo great, if it fo happen that all the differences of one of
the orders are equal to one another, the following differences of all
the other orders will all be = o ; and that therefore the lall: Term
will be affignable by fo many Terms only of the Series abovewrit
ten, as are denoted by the firft Difference that happens to be = o.
This being premifed, it will be eafy to fliew, how the Sums of
thofe Terms may be taken ; for if we imagine a new Scries whereof
the firft Term ftiall be = o ; the fecond =r A ; the third = A ^ B ;
the fourth = A + B  C ; the fifth = A f B + C + D, and fo
on ; it is plain that the affigning one Term of the new Series is find
ing the Sum of all the Terms A, B, C, D, &c. Now fince thofc
Terms are the differences of the Sums o. A, A) B, A B  C, A^
B 1 C  D, &c. and that by Hypothefis fome of the differences of
A, B, C, D, are = o, it follows that fome of the differences of the
Sums will alfo be r= o j and that whereas in the Series K\ xd ■\
J, &c. whereby a Term was afligned, A reprefented
* X
— X
I 2
the firft Term, d the firft of the firft differences, d the firft of the fe
cond differences, and that x reprefented the Interval between the firft
Term and the laft, we are now to write o inftead of A ; A in
ftead oi d', d inftead oi d ; d inftead of ^, &c. and x + i inftead
of X ; which being done the Series expreffing the Sums will be
* f I . * i I AT + 1 . AT ■ ;y — 1
o } ^ + 1 X A V ~~;i + i ~r. 3 dy &c. or X  1 X
A 4 i^f . ""' d + "•"••""' ;/, &c. where it will not
'2 '2.3 '2.3.4
perhaps be improper to take notice, that the Series by me exhibited
in my firft Edition, though feemingly differing from this, is the
fame at bottom.
But to apply this to a particular cafe, let us fuppofe that three
Perfons yf, B, C playing on the fame conditions as are expreffed
in this x'*" Problem, the whole number of Counters were 100, inftead
of 12, ftill preferving the fame number 4 of white Counters, and that
it were required to determine the Expedlations of j4, B, C.
It is plain from what has been faid in the firft Remark, that
the Expedtation of A will be proportional to the fum of the num
bers
99 X 98 X 97 4 96 X 95 X 94 + 93 ^ 92 X 91 f 90 X 89 X 88, &c.
* that
The Doctrine ^Chances. 6i
that the Expedation of B will be proportional to the Sum of the
nua.b;rs
98 X 97 X 96 j 95 X 94 X 93  92 X 91 X 90 + 89 >*^ S8 X 87, &c.
and laftly, that the Expedation of C will be proportional to the Sum
of the numbers
97x96 X 95 4 94 X 93 X 92 491 X 90 X 89  88 X 87 X 86, &c.
But as the number of Terms which conftitute thofe three Series is
equal to the number of black Counters increaled by i, as it has
been obferved before, it follows that the number cf all the Terms
diftributed among A^ 4^, C, mufl be 97 ; now dividing 97 by the
number of G.imefters which in this cafe is 3, the quotient will be
32 ; and there remaining i after the divifion, it is an indic.tion
that 33 Terms enter the Expedtation of ^, that 32 Terms enter the
Expedtation of B, and 32 likewife the Expeftation of C; from
whence it follows that the laft Term of thofe which belong to A will
be 3 X 2 x I, the lad of thoie which belong to B will be 5 x 4 x 3,
and the laft of thofe which belong to C will be 4 x 3 x 2.
And therefore if we invert the Terms, making that the firft which
was the laft, and take the differences, according to what has been pre
fcribed, as follows ^
A
7> X
2
X
1 — 6
6 X
5
X
4 120
9 X
8
X
7 — 504
12 X
ji
X
10 1320
15 X
&c.
H
X
13 _ 2730
d
114
d
"d
3^4
270
itz
816
M'^
162
1410
594
then the Expedation of ^, as deduced from the general Theorenr,
will be exprefled by
X 4 1 X 6 H ; h 77T— X 270 + ^ ^ ^ X 162 t
which being contraded, then reduced into its fadors, will be equi
valent to
^ X X f IX AT j 2 X 3x4 I x 3XJ4.
In like manner, it will be found that the Expedation of 5 is equi
valent to
And
62 T'he Doctrine o/" Chances.
And that the Expedlation of C is equivalent to
 X X ) I X a; ^ 2 X <^xx \ z'jx \ 1 6.
Now X in each cafe reprefents the number of Terms wanting
one, which belong feverally to A^ B, C ; wherefore making x J 1
= />, the feveral Ex'pedations will now be exprefled by the number
of Terms which were originally to be fummed up, and which will
be as folUows,
For A, p xPjJzJJ^JP ~J:J^ J/lij.
For B, p \ p \ i X 3/» } 2 X 2/»  5
For C, /> X /) { I X (jpp + gp — ^
But ftill it is to be confidered, that p in the firft cafe anfwers to the
number 33, and in the other two cafes to 32 ; and therefore/* being
interpreted for the feveral cafes as it ought to be, the feveral Ex
pcdtations will be found proportional to the numbers 41225, 39592,
38008.
If the number of all the Counters were 500, and the number
of the white ftill 4, then the number of all the Terms icprefenting
the E>:pedl.uions of A^ B., C would be 497 : now this number be
ing divided by 3, the Quotient is J65, and ihe remainder 2. From
whence it follows that the Expectations of A and B confift of 1 66
terms each, and the Expedlation of C only of 165, and therefore
the loweft Term of all, viz. 3x2x1 will btlon^' to B, the laft
but one 4x1x2 will belong to A, and the laft but two will belong
toC.
PROBLEM XI.
7^ A, B, C ihrow in their turns a revular Ball having
4 u'hit^ faces and eight black ones ; and he be to be re
puted the winner ivbo Jhall firjl bring up one of the
ivhite faces ; // is demanded^ what the proportion is of
their refpcciive Probabilities of 'wi?7nmg f
Solution.
The Method of reafoning in this Problem is exadly the fame as
that wiiich we have made ufc of in the Solution of the preceding :
but whereas the different throws of the Ball do not diminifh the
number of its Faces j in the room of the quaii titles b — i, b — 2,
"the Doctrine f?/" Chances. 63
b — 3, &c. n — I, n — 2, n — 3, &c. employed in the Solution
of the aforefaid Problem, we mufl: fubftitute b and n refpedtiveh\
and the Series belonging to that Problem will be changed into the
following, which we ought to conceive continued infinitely.
a , ab , abb , ab^ , ab* , ab^ g
_ _ U — \ , — , &c.
then taking every third Term thereof, the refpedlive Expedatlons
of ^, ^, C will be expreffed by the following Series,
a , ohT: . ab'i . al') . ah*' .
T ^ ^ V ;r \ IT' 1^' &c
,m r „5 n^ ,fi T^ „.. r „'4 > '^^'
abb , alS . ab^ , a'" . ab'* 
But the Terms, whereof each Series is compofed, are in geometric
Progreflion, and the ratio of each Term in each Series to the fol
lowing is the fame j wherefore the Sums of thefe Series are in the
fame proportion as their firft Terms, i^iz, as — , ^ , ■— , or as
nn, bn, bb ; that is, in the prefent cafe, as 144, 96, 64, or 9, 6, 4.
Hence the refpedllve Probabilities of winning will likewife be as the
numbers 9, 6, 4.
Corollary i.
If there be any other number of Gamefters A, B, C, D, &c.
playing on the fame conditions as above, take as many Terms in the
proportion of n to b, as there are Gamefters, and thofe Terms will
refpedlively denote the fcveral Expedtations of the Gamefters.
Corollary 2.
If there be any number of Gamefters A, 5, C, D, &c. playing
on the fame conditions as above, with this difference only, that all the
Faces of the Ball fhall be marked with particular figures i, 2, 3, 4, &c.
and that a certain number p of thofe Faces ftiall intitle A to be the
winner ; and that likewife a certain number of them, as q, r, s, t,
&c. fhall refpedively intitle B, C, D, E, Sec. to be winners : make
n — p ^ a, n — q '=^ b, ti — rr=.c, n — s =z d, n — t :=. e, 6cc.
then in the following Series ;
p , f/a , Tab , sabc tabcd 
 A^ ^ — , &c.
the Terms taken in due order will refpedively reprefent the feveral
Probabilities of winning.
For
64 Ihz Doctrine (j/* Chances.
For if the law of the Play be fuch, that every Man having once
played in his turn, (hall begin regularly again in the fame manner,
and that continually, till fuch time as one of them wins ; we are to
take as many Terms of the Series as there are Gamefters, and thofe
Terms will reprefent the refpedive Probabilities of winning.
But the Reafonof this Rule will beft appear if we apply it to fome
cafy Example.
Let therefore the three Gamefters y/, B, C throw a Die of 12 faces in
their Turns; of which 5 faces are favourable to y^, 4 faces are favoura
ble to B, and the remaining 3 give the Stake to C. Then^:^:^,
g := 4., r =: 3 : and there being but 3 Gamefters, the fame Chances,
and in the fame Order yi, B, C, will recur perpetually after a Round
of three throws, till the Stake is won ; or rather, as we fuppofe in the
demonlhation, till the Stake is totally exhauft.ed, bv each Gamefter,
inftead of his thiow, taking out of it the part to which the chance of
that throw entitles him.
Now A having p Chances out of », or 5 out of 1 2, to get the
whole Stake at the firft Throw, let him take out of it the Value of this
Chance  : and there will remain i —  = ^^ =  to be thrown
K ' ft n n
for by B.
And B's Chances for winning in his Throw being g out ofn, or 4
out of 12, the Value of his prefent Expedation is ^ X — := —  ;
which if he takes out of the Stake — there will remain — — ^ =
— X I — — :== — x,tobe thrown for by C.
n nun' ■>
His Chances for getting this Stake being r out of «, or 3 out of 12,
the Value of his Expedation is ^ ; which he may take out of the
Stake ^ : and refign the Die to ^, who begins the fecond Round.
But if, for the Stakes that remain after the firft, fecond, third, &c.
Rounds, we write R', R'. R'", &c. rtfpedtively, it is manifeft that
the Value of a Gamefter's Chance in each Round is proportional to
the Stake R', R", R", &c. which remained at the beginning of that
Round. Thus the Value of ^'s firft Throw having been ^ X i, the
Value of his fecond will be ^ x R', of his third, ^ x R",
&c. And the Value of £'s firft Throw having been ^ X i, that
of his fecond will ^ X R', of his third, ^ x R", 6cc. and the
like for the feveral Expedations of C.
Put
7^^ Doctrine <?/"Chances. 65
Put ^ — I 4 R' j R" f R'", &c. and the Total of As Ex
pectations will be ^x5;of5, ^ X 5; of C, ^ X 5 ; or re
jeding the common Faftor 5, the Expedtations of /^, B, C, at the
beginning of the Play will be as ^ , ^ , ^ , refpedively : that is
as the 3 firft Terms of the Series. And the like reafoning will hold,
be the Number of Gamefters, their favourable Chances, or order of
Throwing, what you will.
In the prefent Example, t = J ~ ^ .^ Jl. — 1^ —
JlL . SfL — .'J!L : and the Chances of A B, C, refpedively, are
1728 * «' 1728
as the Numerators 720, 336, 168; that is, as 30, 14, 7. or the
whole Stake being 5 1 pieces, A can claim 30 of them, B 14, and
C the remaining 7.
In making up this Stake, the Gamefters A, B, C, were, at equal
play, to contribute only in proportion to their Chances of winning ;
that is in the proportion of p,q, r, or 5, 4, 3, refpedlively : and, be
fore the Order of throwing was fixt, their Chances mufl have been
exadtly worth what they paid in to the Stake. What gives A the
great advantage now is, an antecedent good luck of being the firft to
throw. If B had been the firft ; or if yl, taking his firft Throw, had
mift of a / face, then 5's Chance had been the better of the two.
And if it were the Law of Play that every Man {hould play feveral
times together, for inftance twice : then taking for yf the two firft
Terms, for B the two following, and fo on ; each couple of Terms
will reprefent the refpedlive Probabilities of winning, obferving now
that p and q are equal, as alfo r and s.
But if the Law of Play fliould be irregular, then you are to take
for each Man as many Terms of the Series as will anfwer that irre
gularity, and continue the Series till fuch time as it gives a fufficient
Approximation.
Yet if, at any time, the Law of the Play having been irregular,
fhould afterwards recover its regularity, the Probabilities of winning,
will (with the help of this Series) be determined by finite expref
fions.
Thus if it fhould be the Law of the Play, that two Men A and
B having played irregularly for ten times together, tho' in a manner
agreed on between them, they fliould alfo agree that after ten throws,
they fhould play alternately each in his turn : diftribute the ten firft
Terms of the Series between them, according to the order fixed upon
by their convention, and having fubtraded the Sum of thofe Terms
K from
66 The Doctrine ^Chances.
from Unity, divide the remainder of it between them in the propor
tion of the two following Terms, which add refpedively to the
Shares they had before ; then the two parts of Unity which A and
B have thus obtained, will be proportional to their refpedlive Proba
bilities of winning.
PROBLEM XII.
There are any number of Gamejiers^ who in their Turns.,
which are decided by Lots., tur7i a Cube., having 4 of
its Faces marked T, P, D, A, the other two Faces which
are oppojjte have each a little Kfiob or Pivet, about
which the Cube is made to turn ; the Gamejiers each
lay dowJi a Sum agreed upon, the firfl begins to turn
the Cube ; 7tow if the Face T be brought up, he fweeps
all the Mo?iey upon the Board, and the?i the Play begins
anew ; if any other Face is brought up, he yields his
place to the next Man, but with this difference, that if
the Face P comes up, he, the frfl Man, puts down as
much Money as there was upon the Board ; if the Face
D comes up, he neither takes up aity Money nor lays
down ajty ; if the Face A cofms up, he takes up half
of the Mofiey up07i the Board ; whe7i every Man has
played in his Turn upon the fame co7tditiom as above,
there is a recurrency of Order, whereby the Board may
be very much enlarged, viz. if it fo happen that the
Face T is intermitted during many Trials : now the i^ue
fiion is this ; when a Gafnefler comes to his Turn, fup
pofng him afraid of laying down as much Money as
there is already, which may be confderable, how mufi he
compound for his Expe&ation with a SpeElator willing
to take his place.
SoLUT I ON.
Let us fuppofe for a little while that the number of Gamefters is
infinite, and that what is upon the JBoard is the Sum /j then,
there
Hoe DOCTRIN E ^ Ch A NCES. 67
there being i Chance in 4 for the Face T to come up, it follows
that the Expedation of the firft Man, upon that fcore, is ^
2°. There being i Chance in 4 for the Face P to come up, whereby
he would neceflarlly lofe f^ (by reafon that the number of Game
fters having been fuppofed infinite, his Chance of playing would never
return again) it follows that his Lofs upon that account ought to
be eftimated by —f. 3°. There being i Chance in 4 for the Face
D to come up, whereby he would neither win or lofe any thing,
we may proceed to the next Chance. 4°. There being i Chance
in 4 for the Face A to come up, which intitles him to take up
— / his Expedlation, upon that account, is ^/, or fuppofing
8 = », his Expedtation is — /; now out of the four cafes above
mentioned the firft and fecond do defiroy one another, the third nei
ther contributes to Gain or Lofs, and therefore the clear Gain of
the firft Man is upon account of the fourth Cafe ; let it therefore be
agreed among the Adventurers, that the firft Man fhall not try his
Chance, but that he (hall take the Sum —/"out of the common Stake
f, and that he fhall yield his Turn to the next Man.
But before I proceed any farther, it is proper to prevent an Objedtion
that may be made againft what I have aflerted above, viz. that the
Face D happening to come up, the Adventurer in that cafe would
lofe nothing, becaufe it might be faid that the number of Gamefters
being infinite, he would neceffarily lofe the Stake he has laid
down at firft; but the anfwer is eafy, for fince the number of parti
cular Stakes is infinite, and that the Sum of all the Stakes is fuppofed
only equal to f, it follows that each particular Stake is nothing in
comparifon to the common Stake f, and therefore that common
Stake may be looked upon as a prefent made to the Adventurers.
Now to proceed ; I fay that the Sum — / having been taken out of
the common Stake f, the remaining Stake will be ^^ / or — ,
fuppofing n — I =d : but by reafon that the firft Man was allowed
.— part of the common Stake, fo ought the next Man to be allowed
— part of the prefent Stake —f, which will make it that the
Expedation of the fecond Man will be — :/; Again, the Expec
K 2 tation
68 Tl^e Doctrine (t/" Chances.
tation of the fecond Man being to the Expectation of the firft as
— to I, the Expedation of the third muft be to the Expedlation of
the fecond alfo as — to i, from whence it follows that the Expec
tation of the third Man will be —fy and the Expedation of the
fourth — /J and fo on ; which may fitly be reprefented by the Series
123456
//„^o ^ J. ^ _. i!l _ 4 _. 4 J_ i! , &c. Now the
Sum of that infinite Series, which is a Geometric Progrefllon, is
—Z7, hut d having been fuppofed =.11 — i, then n — ^= i,
and therefore the Sum of all the Expedations is onlyy^ as it ought
to be.
Now let us fuppofe that inftead of an infinite number of Game
ftcrs, there are only two ; then, iii this cafe, we may imagine that
the firft Man has the firfl, thirds ffthy feventh Terms of that Se
ries, and all thofc other Terms in infinitum which belong to the
odd places, and that the fecond Man has all the Terms which be
long to the even places j wherefore the Expectation of the firft Man
is ^ m^o I 4 ^ i ^ + ^ + — , &c. and the Expecta
tion of the fecond h ^ into i •\ ^ \ — + ~ + ^r > &c.
r df
and therefore the Ratio of their Expectations is as ^ to ^ , or as
1 to  , that is as « to « — i, or as 8 to 7 ; and therefore the
Expectation of the firft Man is ^/ and the Expectation of the
fecond Man is — /; and therefore if a Spectator has a mind to
Q
take the place of the firft Man, he ought to give him — /
But if the number of Gamefters be three, take a third propor
tional to « and d. which will be — , and therefore the three Ex
peCtations will be refpeCtively proportional to «, d^ —^ , or to nn^
dn, dd, and therefore the Expectation of the firft Man is ^ — ~f
' ' ^ tin i a/t + aa J
which in this cafe is = 7— A
Univerfalfy, Let p be the number of Adventurers, then the Sum for
which the Expedation of the firft Man may be transferred to an
The Doctrine o/" Chances. 69
'ithe Game of Bassette.
Rules of the Play.
The Dealer, otherwife called the Banker, holds a pack of 52
Cards, and having fhuffled them, he turns the whole pack at once,
fo as to difcover the laft Card ; after which he lays down by couples
all the Cards.
The Setter, otherwife called the Tonte^ has 1 3 Cards in his hand,
one of every fort, from the King to the Ace, which 13 Cards are
called a Book ; out of this Book he takes one Card or more at plea
fure, upon which he lays a Stake.
The Ponte may at his choice, either lay down his Stake before
the pack is turned, or immediately after it is turned ; or after any
number of Couples are drawn.
The firft cafe being particular, fhall be calculated by itfelf ; but
the other two being comprehended under the fame Rules, we fhall
begin with them.
Suppofing the Ponte to lay down his Stake after the Pack is turned,
I call I, 2, 3, 4, 5, &c. the places of thofe Cards which follow the
Card in view, either immediately after the pack is turned, or after any
number of couples are drawn.
If the Card upon which the Ponte has laid a Stake comes out in
any odd place, except the firft, he wins a Stake equal to his own.
If the Card upon which the Ponte has laid a Stake comes out in
any even place, except the fecond, he lofes his Stake.
If the Card of the Ponte comes out in the firft place, he neither
wins nor lofes, but takes his own Stake again.
If the Card of the Ponte comes out in the fecond place, he does
not lofe his whole Stake, but only a part of it, viz. one half, which
to make the Calculation more general we fliall call_y. In this cafe the
Ponte is faid to be Faced.
When the Ponte chufes to come in after any number of Couples
are down ; if his Card happens to be but once in the Pack, and is the
very laft of all, there is an exception from the general Rule ; for
tho' it comes out in an odd place, which fhould intitle him to win a
Stake equal to his own, yet he neither wins nor lofes from that circum
ftance, but takes back his own Stake.
PRO
7© 7^^ Doctrine o/" Chances.
PROBLEM XIII.
'To ejlwtate at Baflette the Lofs of the Ponte laider any
circiimjlance of Cards retnaining in the Stocky when he
lays his Stake \ a?id of afiy number of times that his
Card is repeated in the Stock.
The Solution of this Problem containing four cafes, viz. of the
Ponte's Card being once, twice, three or four times in the Stock; we
fliall give the Solution of all thefe cafes feverally.
Solution of the firjl Cafe.
The Ponte has the following chances to win or lofe, according to
the place his Card is in.
Chance for winning o
Chance for lofing y
Chance for winning i
Chance for lofing i
Chance for winning i
Chance for lofing i
Chance for winning o
It appears by this Scheme, that he has as many Chances to win i
as to lofe I, and that there are two Chances for neither winning or
lofing, viz. the firft and the laft, and therefore that his only Lofs is
upon account of his being Faced: from which it is plain that the num
ber of Cards covered by that which is in view being called n, his Lofs
will be ^ , or ~ , fuppofing ;' = 7 .
Solution of the fecond Cafe.
By the firft Remark belonging to the x'*" Problem, it appears f that
the Chances which the Ponte has to win or lofe are proportional to the
numbers, n — i, n — 2, n — 3, &c. Wherefore his Chances for win
ning and lofing maybe expreued by the following Scheme.
f Namely, by calling the Ponte's two Cards two white Counters, drawn for alter
nately by A and B ; and fuppofing all A's Chances to belong to the Banker's right
hand, and thofe of B to his left. And the like for the Cafes of the Ponte's Card being
in the Stock 3 or 4 times,
I
1 I
2 I
3 I
4 1
5 I
6 I
^ I
Tie Doctrine o/'Chances. 71
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
*
« — I Chances for winning o
n — 2 Chances for lofing y
n — 3 Chances for winning i
n — 4 Chances for lofing 1
n — 5 Chances for winning i
« — 6 Chances for lofing i
n — 7 Chances for winning i
n — 8 Chances for lofing i
n — 9 Chances for winning i
I Chance for lofing i
Now fetting afide the firft and fecond number of Chances, it
will be found that the difference between the 3'' and 4''' is = i,
that the difference between the 5'*" and 6''' is alfo = i, and that
the difference between the 7"* and S'*" is alfo = i, and fo on. But
the number of differences is "~^ , and the Sum of all the Chances is
— X "~^ : wherefore the Gain of the Ponte is — ^^^r • But
12 fix n — I
I X 2
his Lofs upon account of the Face is n — 2 x y divided by
that is ^''~'^^y : hence it is to be concluded that his Lofs upon the
» X « — I *
whole is^l^niiSti^iii or — I — fuppofina; y = — .
nxn — I B X ffl — I ^^ ^ •' 2
That the number of differences is ^^^ will be made evident from;
2
two confiderations.
Firft, the Series « — 3, n — 4, n — 5, &c. decreafes in Arith
metic Progrefllon, the difference of its terms being Unity, and the
laft Term alfo Unity, therefore the number of its Terms is equal to
the firft Term n — 3 : but the number of differences is one half
of the number of Terms ; therefore the number of differences is
" — %
2
Secondly, it appears, by the x'*" Problem, that the number of all
the Terms including the two firft is always 6 ~{ i, but a in this
cafe is = 2, therefore the number of all the Terms \s n — i ; from
which excluding the two firft, the number of remaining Terms will
be K — 3, and confequently the number of differences "~ .
That the Sum of all the Terras is  x ""' , is evident alfo'
I 2 '
from two different confiderations.
Firft
7 2 'The Doctrine (p/" Chances.
Firft in any Arithmetic Progreflion whereof the firfl: Term is
n — I, the difference Unity, and the laft Term alfo Unity, the Sum
of the Progreflion will be — x "~ ' .
Secondly, the Series 7^ x « — 1 + « — 2  /i — 3, &c.
mentioned in the firfl: Remark upon the tenth Problem, exprefles the
Sum of the Probabilities of winning which belong to the feveral Game
fters in the cafe of two white Counters, when the number of all the
Counters is n. It therefore expreffes likewife the Sum of the Proba
bilities of winning which belong to the Ponte and Banker in the pre
fent cafe : but this Sum muft always be equal to Unity, it being a cer
tainty that the Ponte or Banker muft win ; fuppofing therefore that
n — \ A^n — 2  « — 3, &c. is = S, we fhall have the Equation
2S
•= I, and therefore S = 7 x — ^ — .
Solution of the third Cafe.
By the firft Remark of the tenth Problem, it appears that the
Chances which the Ponte has to win and lofe, may be exprefled by
the following Scheme.
I
2
4
5
6
7
8
n — t X «— 2 for winning o
n — 2 X n — 3 for lofing v
n — 3 X « — 4 for winning i
n — 4 X n — 5 for lofing i
n — 5 X n — 6 for winning i
«— 6 X « — 7 for lofing i
;/ — 7 X n — 8 for winning i
n — 8 X n — 9 for lofing i
2 X I for winning i
'5
Setting afide the firft, fecond, and laft number of Chances, it
will be found that the difference between the 3'' and 4"' is zn — 8 ;
the difference between the 5'*" and b^*", zn — 12 ; the difference be
tween the 7'*" and 8 *", 2«— 16, &c. Now thefe differences con
ftitute an Arithmetic Progreflion, whereof the firft Term is zn — 8,
the common difference 4, and the laft Term 6, being the difference
between 4x3 and 3x2. Wherefore the Sum of this ProgrelTion
to which adding the laft Term 2x1, which is
is
«— t;
favourable to the Ponte, the Sum total will be — — ^ x ^ —  : but
the
7^5 Doctrine <?/ Chances. 73
the Sum of all the Chances is 7 x ^^ x ^^^ , as may be col
leded from the firft Remark of the x'*' Problem, and the laft Pa
ragraph of the fecond cafe of this Problem: therefore the Gain of the
Ponte is ? ■ » — 3 • "~^ . But his Lofs upon account of the
rv., :<5 .^ .n — z.n—^^y or ^y"— 3 therefore his Lofs upon
the whole is „,„_, — z.n .n\ . n
fuppofing jy = —
l y • " — 3 3 ■ "—3 ■ '• 3 . 3"— 9
z.n. a— I . »— 2
Solution of the fourth Cafe.
The Chances of the Ponte may be expreffed by the following
Scheme.
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
*
?2 — I X 72 — 2 X n — 3 for winning o
n—Zyt.n — 3x« — 4forlofing y
n—2 X «— 4 X «— 5 for winning i
n — 4 X « — '5 X « — 6 for lofing i
« — 5 X ?2 — 6 X « — 7 for winning i
n — 6 X n — 7 X « — 8 for lofing i
n — 7 X n — 8 X n — 9 for winning i
3 X 2 X I for lofing i
Setting afide the firfl and fecond numbers of Chances, and tak
ing the diff rences between the 3'' and 4''', 5'^ and 6''', f^ and
8''', the lall of thefe differences will be found to be 1 8. Now if
the number of thofe differences be p, and we begin from the lafl 1 8,
their Sum, from the fecond Remark of the x''' Problem, will be found
to be /» X /)  I X 4/>  5, but p in this cafe is = \\ and
therefore the Sum of thefe differences will eafily appear to be
^;=^ X ^=^ X ^^^1 , but the Sum of all the Chances is
2 2 : '
— X "~' X '*""" X ""  ; wherefore the Gain of the Ponte is
~ — ? • " — 3 • 2"— ; . j^Q^ j^ig LQ^g upon account of the Face is
n n — i.n — 2.« — 3 f
"~V '"^ ' ""•* • '^ , and therefore his Lofs upon the whole will be
" — 4 ■ 4v n — 5 . 2« — 5 %n—q f f 1
T^nr; ir:itnrzT ''' — IT^f^T' fuppofingjy= .
L There
74 ^^ Doctrin'e of Chauces,
There ftill remains one fingle cafe to be confidered, viz. what
the Lofs of the Ponte is, when he lays a Stake before the Pack is
turned up : but there will be no difficulty in it, after what we have
faid ; the difference between this cafe and the reft being only, that he
is liable to be faced by the firft Card difcovered, which will make
his Lofs to be — ~^ ;^— , that is, interpreting ?i by the num
ber of all the Cards in the Pack, viz. 52, about — part of his
Stake.
From what has been faid, a Table mayeafily be compofed, {hew
ing the feveral Lofles of the Ponte in whatever circumftance he may
happen to be. •
ATa
the
DOCTR
A Table
INE <?/" Chances,
for Bassette.
N
52
51
49
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
^9
17
15
13
II
9
7
I
2
3
4
866
867
801
* * *
* * *
* * *
1735
* * *
* * *
98
2352
1602
1474
94
2162
717
(>75
90
1980
1806
^351
1234
86
617
561
82
1640
1122
1015
78
1482
507
74
1332
914
457
70
1190
818
409
363
321
66
1056
727
ei
930
642
58
54
812
702
562
281
487
243
50
46
600
418
209
506
420
354
295
^77
42
H7
38
342
272
242
194
121
34
30
97
210
151
75
26
22
156
114
82
56
35
57
110
41
28
'7
18
72
14
42
The
76
The Doctrine o/" Chances.
The ufe of this Table will be bed explained by fome Examples.
Example i.
het it be propofed to find the Lojs of the Ponte, ivhen there are 26
Cards remaining in the Stock, and his Card is twice in it.
In the Column N find the number 25, which is lefs by i than
the number of Cards remaining in the Stock : overagainft it, and
under the number 2, which is at the head of the fecond Column,
you will find 600 ; which is the Denominator of a fradion whofe
Numerator is Unity, and which fliews that his Lofs in that circum
flance is one part in fix hundred of his Stake.
Example 2.
To find the Lofs of the Ponte when there are eight Cards remaining
in the Stock, and his Card is three times in it.
In the Column N find the number 7, lefs by one than the num
ber of Cards remaining ia the Stock : overagainft 7, and under the
number 3, written on the top of one of the Columns, you will
find 35, which denotes that his Lofs is one part in thirtyfive of
his Stake.
COROL L ARY I.
'Tis plain from the conflrudlion of the Table, that the fewer
Cards are in the Stock, the greater is the Lofs of the Ponte.
Corollary 2.
The leaft Lofs of the Ponte, under the fame circumftances of
Cards remaining in the Stock, is when his Card is but twice in it j
the next greater but three times ; ftill greater when four times ;
and the greateft when but once. If the Lofs upon the Face were
varied, 'tis plain that in all the like circumftances, the Lofs of the
Ponte would vary accordingly ; but it would be eafy to compofe
other Tables to anfwer that variation ; fince the quantity y, which
has been afiiimed to rcprefent that Lofs, having been preferved in the
general exprefiion of the Lofi^es, if it be interpreted by — inftead
of — , the Lofs, in that cafe, would be as eafily determined as in the
other: thus fuppofing that 8 Cards are remaining in the Stock, and
that the Card of the Ponte is twice in it, and alfo that y fliould be
interpreted
i
The Doctrine c/'Chances. 77
interpreted by — , the Lofs of the Pontc would be found to be
— inftead of ^ .
63 42
The Game of Pharaon.
The Calculation for Pharaon is much like the preceding, the rea
fonings about it being the fame ; it will therefore be fufHcient to lay
down the Rules of the Play, and the Scheme of Calculation.
Rules of the Play.
Firft, the Banker holds a Pack of 52 Cards.
Secondly, he draws the Cards one after the other, and lays them
down at his right and lefthand alternately.
Thirdly, the Ponte may at his choice fet one or more Stakes upon
one or more Cards, either before the Banker has begun to draw the
Cards, or after he has drawn any number of couples.
Fourthly, the Banker wins the Stake of the Ponte, when the Card
of the Ponte comes out in an odd place on his righthand ; but
lofes as much to the Ponte when it comes out in an even place on his
lefthand.
Fifthly, the Banker wins half the Ponte's Stake, when it happens^
to be twice in one couple.
Sixthly, when the Card of the Ponte being but once in the Stock,
happens to be the laft, the Ponte neither wins nor lofes.
Seventhly, the Card of the Ponte being bui twice in. the Stock,
and the lafl couple containing his Card twice, he then lofes his whole
Stake.
PROBLEM XIV.
To Ji7td at Pharaon thz Gain of the Banker in any cir
cumflance of Cards remaining in the Stock, and of the
nmnber of times that the Ponte s Cards is contained
in it.
This Problem having four Cafes, that is, when the Ponte's Card
is once, twice, three, or four times in the Stock j we (hall give the
Solution of theie four cafes feverally.
S aL tt
78
T'hQ Doctrine i?/* Chances.
Solution of the jirjl Cafe.
The Banker has the following number of Chances for winning
and lofing.
Chance for winning i
Chance for lofing i
Chance fur winning i
Chance for lofing i
Chance for winning i
Chance for lofing o
Wherefore, the Gain of the Banker is — , fuppofing n to be the
number of Cards in the Stock.
Solution of the fecond Cafe.
The Banker has the following Chances for winning and lofing.
I
2
3
4
5
*
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
*
\
n^ 2 Chances for
I Chance for
n — 2 Chances for
{
n — 4 Chances for
I Chance for
}i — 4 Chances for
winning i
winning y
lofing I
winning i
winning y
lofing I
r
6 Chances for
I Chance for
6 Chances for
winning i
winning y
lofing I
{"
— 8 Chances for
I Chance for
n — 8 Chances for
winning i
winning y
lofing I
1 Chance for winning i
The Gain of the Banker is therefore
n — 2 . V
+
or
— nl" I
;i^;^^ fuppofing _)rr=i..
The only thing that deferves to be explained here, is this ; how It
comes to pafs, that whereas at Baffette, the firft number of Chances
for winning was reprefented by n — i, here 'tis reprefented by n — 2 >
to anfwer this, it mufl be remembered, that according to the Law
of
The Doctrine (P^Chances. 79
of this Play, if the Ponte's Cards come out in an odd place, the
Banker is not thereby entitled to the Ponte's whole Stake : for if it
fo happens that his Card comes out again immediately after, the
Banker wins but one half of it ; therefore the number n — i is di
vided into two parts, 11 — =• 2 and i , whereof the firft is proportional
to the Probability which the Banker has for winning the whole
Stake of the Ponte, and the fecond is proportional to the Probability
of winning the half of it.
Solution of the third Cafe.
The number of Chances which the Banker has for winning and
lofing, are as follow :
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
{"
2 X n — 3 Chances
2 X n — 2 Chances
2 X n — 3 Chances
for wlnnins' i
for winning y
for lofing I
1
n
4 X n — 5 Chances
2 X n — 4 Chances
4 X n — 5 Chances
1"
6 X 71 — 7 Chances
2 X n—t Chances
6 X 11 — 7 Chances
tor winning i
for winning y
for lofing I
for winning i
for winning y
for lofing I
i
8 '^ n — 9 Chances
2 ^ «— 8 Chances
2 X I Chances
for winning i
for winning y
for lofing I
Wherefore the Gc.in of the Banker is , or "
fuppofing y^=^.
The numl of Chances for the Banker to win, is divided into
two parts, whereof the firft exprefles the number of Chances he has
for winning the whole Stake of the Ponte, and the fecond for winning
the half of it.
Now for determining exadliy thofe two parts, it is to be con
fidered, that in the firft couple of Cards that are laid down by the
Banker, the number of Chances for the firft Card to be the Ponte's
is « — I  M — 2 J alfo, that the number of Chances for the fecond
to be the Ponte's, but not the firil, \% n — 2 x ;? 3 : wherefore
the number of Chances for the firft to be the Ponte's, but not the
fecond, is likewife « — 2 x n — 3. Hence it follows, that if from
the
8o The Doctrine ©/"Chances.
the number of Chances for the firft Card to be the Ponte's, vlx:
from n — i x n — 2, there be fubtraded the number of Chances for
the i^rft to be the Ponte's, and not the fecond, viz. n — 2 x « — 3,
there will remain the number of Chances for both firft and fecond
Cards ;o be the Ponte's, viz. 2 x n — 2, and fo for the reft.
Solution of the fourth Cafe.
The number of Chances which the Banker has for winning and
lofing, are as follow :
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
\
n — 2 X n — 3 X n — 4 for winning i
3 X 71 — 2 X n — 3 for winning y
n — 2 X n — 3 X n — 4 for lofing r
{
;/ — 4 X n — 5 X n — 6 for winning i
3 X ;/ — 4 X n — 5 for winning y
n — 4 X n — 5 X n — 6 for lofing i
{
« — 6 X n — 7 X n — 8 for winning i
3 X n — 6 X n — 7 for winning y
n — 6 X n — 7 X n — 8 for lofing i
\
n — 8 X n — 9 X « — icfor winning i
3 X n — 8 X n — 9 for winning y
n — 8 X n — 9 X n — i o for lofing i
i
2 X
3 X
2 X
1 X
2 X
I X
ofor winning i
1 for winning y
ofor lofing I
Wherefore the Gain of the Banker, or the Lofs of the Ponte, is
J_"~ ^_ fuppofing y to be := — .
2)7—5
or
It will be eafy, from the general expreflions of the Loffes, to
compare the difadvantage of the Ponte at Bafjette and Fharaon,
under the fame circumftances of Cards remaining in the hands of
the Banker, and of the number of times that the Ponte's Card is con
tained in the Stock; but to fave that trouble, I have thought fit
here to annex a Table of the Gain of the Banker, or Lofs of the
Ponte, for any particular circumftance of the Play, as it was done for
BaJJette.
A Ta
Ihe Doctrine o/' Chances.
A Table for Pharaon.
8l
N
I
2
3
4
52
* * *
* * ifr
* * *
*50
50
* * *
94
65
48
48
48
90
62
46
46
46
86
60
44
44
44
82
S7
42
42
40
42
40
78
74
54
52
40
38
38
38
70
49
36
36
36
66
46
34
34
34
62
44
32
32
32
58
41
30
30
30
54
38
28
28
28
52
36
26
26
26
45
33
24
24
24
42
30
22
22
22
38
28
20
20
20
34
2S
18
18
18
30
22
16
i6
16
a6
20
H
14
H
22
17
12
12
12
18
14
10
10
10
14
12
8
8
s
II
9
6
1
The
82 TJoe Doctrine oj Chances.
The numbers of the foregoihg Table, as well as thofe of the
Tabic for Bafjettc, are fufficieiuly exad to give at firft view an idea
of the advantage of the Banker hi all circumftances, and the Me
thod of ufing it is the fame as that which was given for Bafette.
It is to be obferved at this Play, that the leaft diladvantage of the
Ponte, under the fame circumftances of Cards remaining in the
Stock, is when the Card of the Ponte is but twice in it, the next
greater when three times, the next when once, and the greateft
when four times.'
O/' Perm UTAT IONS and Combinations.
Permutations are tlie Changes whicli fevefal things can receive in
the different orders in which they may be placed, being confidered as
taken two and two, three and three, four and four, (sc.
Combinations are the various Conjundtions which feveral things
may receive without any refpe(5t to order, being taken two and two,
three and three, four and four.
The Solution of the Problems that relate to Permutations and Com
binations depending entirely upon what has been faid in the S'*" and
q"" Articles of the Introdudion, if the Reader will be pleafed to con
fult thofe Articles with attention, he will eafily apprehend the reafon
of the Steps that are taken in the Solution of thofe Problems.
!P R O B L E M XV.
Any number of things a, b, c, d, e, f, being given^ out of
which two are taken as it happens : to fnd the Proba
bility that any of them^ as a, f^all be the firfi taken y
and any other, as b, the fecond.
Solution.
The number of Things in this Exarhple being fix, it follows
that the Probability of taking a in the firft place is ^\ \t\. a be
confidered as taken, then the Probability of taking b will be  ;
wherefore the Probability of taking <?, and th^n ^, is ^ x  =
I
■30*
Coral
75^ Doctrine <?/" Chances. 83
Corollary.
Since the taking a in the firft place, and b in the fecond, is but
one fingle Cafe of thofe by which fix Things may change their order,
being taken two and two j it follows that the number of Changes or
Permutations of fix Things, taken two and two, muft be 30.
Univerfally , let n l?c the number of Things ; then the Probability
of taking a in the firft place, and b in the fecond will be  x — ;
and the number of Permutations of thofe Things, taken two and two,
will be « X « — J,
PROBLEM XVI.
Any number of Things a, b, c, d, e, f, being given ^ out
of which three are taken as it happens ; to find the
Probability that a pall be the firfl taken ^ b the fecond^
and c the third,
Sol u t 10^.
The Probability of taking a in the firft place is ^\\t\. a be
confideied as taken, then the Probability of .taking b will be  :
fuppofe now both a and b taken, then the Probability of taking c
>yill be ^ : .wherefore the Probfibility of taking firft a, ^then ^,
and thirdly c, will be ^ ;< x  =;= u— .
CoR OLXARY.
Since the taking a in the firft place, b in the fecond, and c in the
third, is but one fingle Cafe of thofe by which fix Things may change
their Order, being taken three and three ; it follows, that the num
ber of Changes or Permutations of fix Things taken three and
three, muft be 6 x 5 x 4 = 120.
Univerfally, if n hz the number of Things ; the Probability of
taking a in the firft place, b in the fecond, and c in the third, will be
— x X ; and the number of Permutations of n Things
taken three and three, will be « x « — i x ;/ — 2.
M 2 Gene
^4 T'ke Doctrine (?/" Chances.
General Corollary.
The number of Permutations of n things, out of which as many
jire taken together as there are Units in />, will be « x « — i x
11 2 X n — 3, &c. continued to fo many Terms as there arc Units
in/.
Thus the number of Permutations of fix Things taken four and
four, will be 6x5x4x3:= 360, likewife the number of Permu
tations of fix Things taken all together will be6x5X4X3X2X
1 =720.
PROBLEM XVII.
To find the Probability that any number of things, whereof
fome are repeated, fhall all be taken in any order pro
pofed : for inflame, that ^idihhhcQcc f jail be taken in the
order wherein they are written.
Solution.
The probability of taking a in the firft place is ~ ; fuppofe
one a to be taken, the Probability of taking the other is  .
Let now the two firft Letters be fuppofed taken, the Probability
of taking b will be  : let this be alfo fuppofed taken, the Pro
bability of taking another b will be  : let this be fuppofed taken,
the Probability of taking the third b will be  ; after which there
remaining nothing but the Letter c, the Probability of taking it be
comes a certainty, and confequently is exprefTed by Unity. Where
fore the Probability of taking all thofe Letters in the order given is
2 I 3 2 I r '
Corollary I.
The number of Permutations which the Letters aabbbcccc may
receive being taken all together will be ^ ' , ' ^ / \ \ \ = 1260.
Corollary 2.
The fame Letters remaining, the Probability of the Letters be
ing taken in any other given Order will be juft the fame as before :
thus
The Doctrine (^/'Chances. 85
thus the Probability of thofe Letters being taken in the prder cabaccchb
will be — —  .
1260
General Corollary.
The number of Permutations which any number n of Things
may receive being taken all together, whereof the firft Sort is repeated
p times, the fecond q times, the third r times, the fourth s times,
&c. will be the Series «xn — ixw — 2X n — 3 y~ n — 4, &c. con
tinued to fo many Terms as there are Units \n p ^ qA^r oz n — s
divided by the produd of the following Series, viz. p x p — i x p — 2,
&c. q X q — I X q — 2, &c. r x r — i x r — 2, &c. whereof the
firft muft be continued to fo many Terms as there are Units in ^,
the fecond to fo many Terms as there are Units in q, the third to fo
many as there are Units in r, &c.
PROBLEM XVIIL
Any number of Things a, b, c, d, e, f, being given : to find
the Probability that in taking two of them as it may
happen^ both a and hfhall be taken^ without any regard
to order.
Solution.
The Probability of taking <z or ^ in the firft place will be ~ ;
fuppofe one of them taken, as for inftance a, then the Probability
of taking b will be — . Wherefore the Probability of taking both
a and b will be 4 x — .
° s
Corollary.
The taking of both a and b is but one fingle Cafe of all thofe by
which fix Things may be combined two and two ; wherefore the
number of Combinations of fix Things taken two and two will be
6 <;
— X — .
I 2
Utiiverfally. The number of Combinations of n Things taken two
and two will be — x ^^^ »
PRO
86 He Doctrine ^Chances,
PROBLEM XIX.
j^ny number of things a, b, c, d, e, f being given, to
find the Probability that in taking three of them as
they happen, they floall be any three propofed, as a, b, c,
no refpedi being had to order.
Solution.
The Probability of taking either <?, or b, or r, in the firft place,
will be 4 ; fuppofe one of them as a to be taken, then the Pro
bability of taking either ^ or c in the fecond place will be 4 • again,
let either of them be taken, fuppofe b, .then the Probability of taking
c in the third place will be ~ ; wherefore the Probability of taking
the three things propofed, viz. «, b, r, will be ~ x t x  .
.CU3 RO LiL A Ry.
The taking of a, b, c, is but one finglc cafe of all thofc by which
fix Things may be combined three and three ; wherefore the num
ber of Combinations of fix Things taken three and three will be
6 <; 4 „
_X^ X =20.
I A n
Uni'ver/ally. The number of Combinations ofti things combined ac
cording to the number />, will be the fradion ~— ~ — " / " ^ "  ^
&c. both Numerator and Denominator 'being continued to fo many
Term:^ as there are Units in p.
PROBLEM XX.
'Tofnd what Probability there is, that in taking at ran
dom /even Counters out of twehe, 'whereof four are
white and eight black, three of them fiall be white
ones.
Solution..
Ftrjl, Find the number of Chances for taking three white out
of four, which will beJxxr=:4'
Secondly,
'Tlie Doctrine (?/'Chances. 87
Secondly, Find the number of Chances for taking four black out
of eight : thefe Chances will be found tobexx— x^
= 70.
Thirdly, Becaufe every one of the firft Chances may be joined
with every one of the latter, it follows that the number of Chances
for taking three white, and four black, will be 4 x 70 =r 280.
Fourthly, Altho' the cafe of taking four white and three black,
be not mentioned in the Problem, yet it is to be underftood to be
implyed in it ; for according to the Law of Play, he who does more
than he undertakes, is ftill reputed a winner, unlefs the contrary be
exprefly ftipulated ; let therefore the cafe of taking four white out
of four be calculated, and it will be found 7 x — x — x —
1234
Fifthly, Find the Chances for taking three black Counters out of
o ^ £
eight, which will be found to be — x ^ x —r= c,6.
Sixthly, Multiply the two laft numbers of Chances together, and
the Produdl 56 will denote the number of Chances for taking four
white and three black.
And therefore the whole number of Chances, which anfwer to the
conditions of the Problem, are 280 \ 56 = 336.
There remains now to find the whole number of Chances for
taking feven Counters out of twelve, which will be ^ x ^ x
10 9 S 7 6
— X7X — x^ X — = 702.
Lajlly, Divide therefore 336 by 792, and the Quotient i^
792
or — will exprefs the Probability required j and this Fradlion being
fubtradled from Unity, the remainder will be ^ , and therefore
the Odds againfl taking three white Counters are 19 to 14.
Corollary.
Let a be the number of white Counters, b the number of black,
n the whole number of Counters ^= a \ b , r the number of Coun
ters to be taken out of the number n ; let alfo p reprefent the
number of white Counters to be found precifely in c, then the number
of Chances for taking none of the white, or one fingle white, or
two
S 8 The Doctrine ^Chances.
two white and no more, or three white and no more, or four
white and no more, &c. will be expreffed as follows ;
a a — I n — ? n — ^ b b—\ h — 2 .
1 X  X ^ X —X — , 6cc. X y X ^ X ^, &c.
The number of Terms in, which a enters being equal to tJhe number
/», and the number of Terms in which h enters being equal to the
number c — p.
And the number of all the Chances for taking a certain number
c of Counters out of the number «, is exprefled by the Series
^ X ^Y" • ■"""' ^ ~r' ' ^^* *° ^^ continued to as many Terms as
there are Units in c, for a Denominator.
Examples.
Suppofe as in the laft problem ; only that of the 7 Counters drawn,
there fhall not be one white. In this Cafe, fince /> = o, and c —
p^=zjz=b — I : we are to take i of the firfl: Series, and 7 (or i )
Terms of the fecond ; which gives the number of Chances r x 8 i
the Ratio of which to all the 7's that can be taken out of 12, is
= — ; So that there is the Odds of o 8 to i, that there (hall
79 99 ^
be one or more white Counters among the 7 that are drawn.
Again, if there is to be i white Counter and no more, we are now
t 1 rri " h b — ' l> — 2 b—7, b 4
to take the Terms i x — . . . x  x x x —  x — ^
I 1234s
b~= 8 7 6 <; 4 % ■ ^ 8X7 112
X ~~ =4...x— X— X — X X— x=:4x r=. — :
"^6 ^ 123456^2
Which gives the probability ^ = "TTi ^'^ ^^ '^^^^ ^5 ^^ \\\
that there (hall be more than i white Counter, or that all the 7 fhall
be black.
Lnjily, If it is undertaken to draw all the 4 white among the
feven, the Number of Chances will be i x  x ^ x  = 56.
And the Probability ^ = T" ' that is, the Odds of 92 to 7 that
there fliall be, of the 7 drawn, fewer than 4 white Counters, or
none at all.
Remark.
If the numbers n and c were large, fuch as n = 40000 and
c = 8000, the foregoing Method would feem impradicable, by
reafon of the vaft number of Terms to be taken in both Series,
whereof the firft is to be divided by the fecond : tho' if thofe Terms
were
The Doctrine <?/'Chances. 89
were a(flually fet down, a great many of them being common Di
vifors might be expunged out of both Series; for which reafon it will
be convenient to ufe the following Theorem, which is a contra<ftion
of that Method, and which will be chiefly of ufe when the white
Counters are but few.
Let therefore n be the number of all the Counters ; a the number
of white; c the number of Counters to be taken out of the number
n ; p the number of the white that are to be taken precifely in the
number c ; then making n — c^=ii. The Probability of taking pre
cifely the number fi of white Counters, will be
c . c — I . c — '2, &c. X d . d — 1 . d—2, &c. X — X ^^^ x ^^^ &c
123' ***•
n . n — I . ?i — 2 . n — 3 . 7i — 4 . ?i — 5 . n — 6 . n — 7 . n — 8, &c.
Here it Is to be obferved, that the Numerator confifts of three Series
which are to be multiplied together; whereof the firft contains as ma
ny Terms as there are Units in p ; the fecond as many as there are Units
in a—p ; the third as many as there are Units in p ; and the Deno
minator as many as there are Units in a.
PROBLEM XXI.
In a Lottery conftjiing o/' 40000 Tickets^ among which are
three particular Benefits^ what is the Probability that
taking 8000 of them^ one or fnore of the particular Be
nejits Jljall be amongfi them.
Solution.
F/r/?, In the Theorem belonging to the Remark of the foregoing
Problem, having fubftituted refpedively 8000, 40000, 32000, 3
and I, In the room off, w, </, ^, and p ; it will appear that the Proba
bility of taking one precifely of the three particular Benefits, will be
— ■■ ; = nearly. '
Secondly, c, n, d, a being interpreted as before, let us fuppofc
p^r.2\ hence the Probability of taking precifely two of the par
ticular Benefits will be found to be '°"° ' "°°° " '''°^ " ^ =11
40000 . 39999 . 39998 ,25
nearly.
N Thirdly,
90 7^^ Doctrine (t/* Chances.
Thirdly, making /> = 3, the Probability of taking all the three
particular Benefits will be found to be ■■ °^° ' '''^^ ' '^^ — ■. r=:  —
r _ _ 40000 . 391)99 . i?99y!> 125'
Wherefore the Probability of taking one or more of the three par
ticular Benefits will be  — , ''" or — — very near.
It is to be obferved, that thofe three Operations might have been
contraded into one, by inquiring the Probability of not taking
any of the three particular Benefits, which will be found to be
,zopo. ,.9Q9.v9oH ^ j^ ^^^. ^j^.^j^ fubtraded from
40000 . 39999 . 199')'^ »*5 ^ b
Unity, the remainder i ~ or —^ will {hew the Probability
required, and therefore the Odds againft taking any of three particu
lar Benefits will be 64 to 6 1 nearly.
PROBLEM XXII.
To find how many Tickets ought to be taken in a Lottery
confifiing of 40000, among which are Three particular
Benefit Sy to make it as probable that one or more of thofe
Three may be taken as not.
SOLUTIOW.
Let the number of Tickets requifite to be taken be = a: j It will
follow therefore fiom the Remark belonging to the xx*** Problem,
that the Probability of not taking any of the particular Benefits
will be "~"' X "~2~i^ ' X " ~^~ ^ J but this Probability is
equal to — , fance by Hypothefis the Probability of taking one or
more of them is equal tp — , from whence we fhall have the
Equation —  x  ^ ■ ■ x — — — =  , which Equation
being folved, the Value of x will be fouad to be nearly 8252.
N. B. The Fadlors whereof both the Numerator and Denomi
nator are compofed, being but few, and in arithmetic progreflion ;
and befides, the difference being very fmall in refpeft of n ; thofe
Terms may be confidered as being in geometric Progreflion : where
fore the Cube of the middle Term "~^' , may be fuppofed
MuaUo the produd of the Multiplication of thofe Terms; from
whence
iTje Doctrine o/" Chances. gt
whence will arife the Equation ^=1^^ =  ; or, heglecfling U
li
nity in both Numerator and Denominator, ^^^ — :=: — and
confequently x will be found to be = « x i — V — or n x
I — 7'*^4' but n =. 40000, and i — j V4 = 0.2063 ; wherefore
a::=8252.
In the Remark belonging to the fecond Problem, a Rule was
given for finding the number of Tickets that were to be taken to
make it as probable, that one or more of the Benefits would be ta
ken as not ; but in that Rule it was fuppofed, that the proportion
of the Blanks to the Prizes was often repeated, as it ufually is in
Lotteries : now in the cafe of the prefent Problem, the particular
Benefits being but three in all, the remaining Tickets are to be confi
dered as Blanks in refpedl of them ; from whence it follows, that
the proportion of the number of Blanks to one Prize being very near
as 13332 to I, and that proportion being repeated but three times
in the whole number of Tickets, the Rule there given would not
have been fufficiently exadt, for which reafon it was thought neceffary
to give another Rule in this place.
PROBLEM XXIII.
Suppojing a Lottery of 100000 Tickets^ whereof c^ooco
are Blanks^ and 1 0000 are Benefits^ to determine ac
curately what the odds are of taking or not taking a Be
nefit^ in a?iy nutnher of 'Tickets affigned.
Solution.
Suppofe the number of Tickets to be 6 ; then let us inquire into
the Probability of taking no Prize in 6 Tickets, which to find let
us make ufe of the Theorem fet down in the Corollary of the xx*
Problem, wherein it will appear that the number of Chances for ta
king no Prize in 6 Tickets, making a = loooo, b = 90000, c = 6,
^ = o, nr=z looooo, will be
Qoooo Sqqqo SqqoS Roqo7 8qqQ6 8300;
; X X X — X — — X ,
and that the whole number of Chances will be
loooro QgggQ qogqS qoQo 99996 q999> l
__ X — ^— X .r— X — ^ X —J X —jr i then
N 2 dividing
92 Ihe Doctrine o/" Chances.
dividing the firft number of Chances by the fecond, which may
cafily be done by Logarithms, the Quotient will be 0.53143, and
this ftitws the Probability of talcing no Prize in 6 Tickets : and this
decimal fradion being fubtraded from Unity, the Remainder 0.46857
fliews the Probability of taking one Prize or more in 6 Tickets ;
wherefore the Odds againft taking any Prize in 6 Tickets, will be
53143 to 46857.
If we fuppofe now that the number of Tickets taken is 7, then
carrying each number of Chances abovewritten one Hep farther, we
(hall find that the Probability of taking no Prize in 7 Tickets is
0.47828, which fradion being fubtraded from Unity, the remainder
will be 0.52 172, which fliews the Odds of taking one Prize or more
in 7 Tickets to be 52172 to 47828.
Remark.
When the number of Tickets taken bear a very inconfiderabie
proportion to the whole number of Tickets, as it happens in the
cafe of this Problem, the Queftion may be refolved as a Problem de
pending on the Caft of a Die : we may therefore fuppofe a Die
of 10 Faces having one of its Faces fuch as the Ace reprefenting a
Benefit, and all the other nine reprefenting Blanks, and inquire into
the Probability of miffing the Ace 6 times together, which by the
Rules given in the Introdudion, will be found to be j^= 0.53144
differing from what we had found before but one Unit in the fifth
place of Decimals. And if we inquire into the Probability of mifling
the Ace 7 times, we fhall find it 0.47829 differing alfo but one Unit
in the fifth of Decimals, from what had been found before, and there
fore in fuch cafes as this we may ufe both Methods indifferently ; but
the firfl will be exad if we adually multiply the numbers together,
the fecond is only an approximation.
But both Methods confirm the truth of the pradical Rule given in
our third Problem , about finding what number of Tickets are ne
cefTary for the equal Chance of a Prize ; for multiplying as it is
there direded, the number 9 reprefenting the Blanks by 0.7, the
Produd6.3 will fhewthat the number requifite is between 6 and 7.
PROBLEM XXIV.
T^he fame things being given as in the preceding Problem,
fuppofe the price of each Ticket to be 10 ^ and that
ajter the Lottery is drawn, 'j^ . — loP be returned
to
'The Doctrine <?/" Chances. 93
to the Blanks y to jind in this Lottery the value of the
Cha?2ce of a Prize,
Solution.
There being 90C00 Blanks, to every one of which 7 ^ — 10 A
is returned, the total Value of the Blanks is 675000 ^ and confe
quently the total Value of the Benefits is 325000 ^ which being
divided by loooo, the number of the Benefits, the Quotient is 32 ^
— 10/'} and therefore one might for the Sum of 32 ^ — loJ^ be
intitled to have a Benefit certain, taken at random out of the
whole number of Benefits : the Purchafer of a Chance has there
fore I Chance in 10 for the Sum of 32^ — 10/^ and 9 Chances
in I o for lofing his Money ; from whence it follows, that the value
of his Chance is the lo''' part of 32 ^ \qJ" that is 3 ^ ^Jh
And therefore the Purchafer of a Chance, by giving the Seller 3 ^•
• — 5/' is intitled to the Chance of a Benefit, and ought not to
return any thing to the Seller, altho' he fhould have a Prize j for
the Seller having 3 ^ — 5^ fure, and 9 Chances in 10 for 7 ^ xofi
the Value of which Chances is 6 ^ — 1 5 >* j it follows that he has
his I o ^•
PROBLEM XXV.
Suppojing fill the fame Lottery as has been mentioned in
the two preceding Problems^ let A eftgage to furnifj B
with a Chance^ on condition that whenever the Ticket on
which the Chance depends, fall happen to be drawn,
whether it proves a Blank or a Prixe, A fhall furnify
B with a new Chance, and fo on., as often as there is
occafon^ till the whole Lottery be drawn \ to find what
confideration B ought to give A before the Lottery be
gins to be drawn, for the Chance or Chances of one or
more Prizes, adtnitting that the Lottery will be 40
days a drawing.
Solution.
Let 3 ^ — 5/ , which is the abfolute Value of a Chance, be cal
led s.
94 T^l^^ Doctrine o/" Chances.
r. A who is the Seller ought to cohfider, that the firfl: Day, he
f urnilhes neccflarily a Chance whofe Value is i.
2°. That the fccond day, he does not neceflarily furnifli a Chance,
but conditionally, iv'.s, if it lb happen that the Ticket on which the
Chance depends, fliould be drawn on the firft day ; but the Proba
bility of its being drawn on the firft day is — ; and therefore he
ought to take — 5 for the confideration of the fecond day.
3°, That in the fame manner, he does not neceflarily furnifh a
Chance on the third day, but conditionally, in cafe the only Ticket
depending (for there can be but one) fliould happen to be drawn on
the fecond day ; of which the Probability being — , by reafon of
the remaining 39 days from the fecond inclufive to the laft, it fol
lows, that the Value of that Chance is — s.
Af". And for the fame reafon, the Value of the next is — i, and
fo on.
The Purchafer ought therefore to give the Seller
I 4 L 4 _L J 1. J ! ^ i , the whole
multiplied by j, or
' + 7 + T + 7 + T + 7 +;^, the whok
multiplied by j. Now it being pretty laborious to fum up thofe 40
Terms, I have here made ufe of a Rule which I have given in the
Supplement to my Mifcellanea Analytka *, whereby one may in a very
fhort time fum up as many of thofe Terms as one pleafes, tho' they
were j 0000 or more j and by that Rule, the Sum of thofe 40 Terms
will be found to be 4.2785 very near, which being multiplied byi
which in this cafe is 3.25, the produdl 13.9 will fhew that the Pur
chafer ought to give the Seller about 13^ — 1 8 v^
COROLLR AV.
The Value of the Chance s for one fingle day that fliall be fixed
upon, is the Value of that Chance divided by the number of Days
intercepted between that Day inclufive, and the number of Days re
maining to the end of the Lottery : which however muft be under
flood with this reftridion, that the Day fixed upon mufl be chofe be
fore the Lottery begins j or if it be done on any other Day, the State
of
7:5d Doctrine o/" Chances. 95
of the Lottery muft be known, and a new Calculation made accord
ingly for the Value of s,
* SCHOLIUfiJ.
If there is a Series of Fradions of this Form ^ + j^jrp 4"
J \ 1 1 !— A 1— . ; the firft of which is
nlfZ '«l3'a+4 'a — i'
^ , an4 the laft ' a—x ' > ^^^^ ^^^ w^^^ ^s»
log, 4iJ — L A + 4rB4^, Cf ^D + ficc;
^JL 4._LA4LBHVCh^D4&c.
to be obferved,
1". That the mark {log) denoting Nepers^ or the Natural Loga
rithm, affeds only the firft Term — .
2*. That the Values of the Capital Letters are, A =  , B =
numbers of Mr. James Bernoulli in his excellent Theorem for the
Summing of Powers ; which are formed ffQpa t$^\\, pther U fr>UpW6 s
B— 1 — _i A
C:=4~4A'— !*B.
34
3.4 z 73'. 4 .5 . 6^"
34 2. 34S6 a. 3. 4. 576:7:^*^
272 2
D^LliA— ^
292 z
p I ^^ I "'a "^
• "~ j ' 17 "^"2 2
&c.
3°. Ih woricing by this Rule, it will be convenient to fum a few
of the firft terms, in the common way ; that the powers of
— may the fooner converge.
4°. The l^me Rule furnifl^s an eafy Computation of the Loga
■rithm of any ratio  , the difference of whofe terms is not very
gre^t.
PRO'
96 He Doctrine 0/" Chances.
PROBLEM XXVI.
'To find the Frohability of takiiig four Hearts^ three Dia
monds , two Spades J and one Club inteji Cards out of a
Stock CQJitainhig thirtytwo.
Solution.
Firjl, The number of Chances for taking four Hearts out of the
whole nuin bcr of Hearts that are in the Stock, that is out of Eight,
Will be ■ '  ^ • "^ • ^ = 70.
Secondly t The number of Chances for taking three Diamonds out
of Eight, will be ^^^ = 56.
Thirdly, The number of Chances for taking two Spades out of
Eight, will be \ ' I =28.
Fourthly, The number of Chances for taking one Club out of
Q
Eight, will be — = 8. .
And therefore multiplying all thofe particular Chances together,
^^ the produdl 70 x 56 x 28 x 8 t^ 878080 will denote the whole num
ber of Chances for taking four Hearts, three Diamonds, two Spades,
and one Club.
Fifthly, The whole number of Chances for taking any ten Cards
out of thirtytwo is
. ■ 2 . 3 . 4 ■ s ■ 6 . 7 • « • 9 . 10 =04512 240.
And therefore dividing the firfl Produ6t by the fecond, the quotient
"^ 1°^^ P or — ^ nearly, will exprefs the Probability required ;
from which it follows that the Odds againft taking four Hearts, three
Diamonds, two Spades, and one Club in ten Cards, out of a Stock
containing thirtytwo, are very near 74 to i .
Remark.
But if the numbers in this Problem had not been reftrift
ed each to a particular fuit of Cards j that is, if it had been under
taken only that in drawing the ten Cards, 4 of them fhould be of one
fuit, 3 of another, 2 of another, and one of the fourth ; then
writing for the four fuits, the Letters A . B . C . D ; and under
them the Numbers 4 . 3 . 2 . 13 fmce this
is
7he Doctrine o/" Chances. 97
is but one Pofition out of 24, which the numbers can have with
refpedl to the Letters (by the general Corollary to Prob. xvi) we muft
now multiply the number of Chances before found, which was
878080, by 24; and the probability required will be "^7777^ J
that is, it is the Odds of about 2 to i, or very nearly of 68 to 33,
that of 1 o Cards drawn out of a Piquet pack four^ three, two, and
one, fhall not be of different fuits.
Of the Game of Q^u a d r i l l e.
PROBLEM XXVII.
The Player having 3 Matadors and three other Trumps
by the lowefi Cards in black or red^ what is the Pro
bability of his forcing all the Trumps f
Solution.
In order to folve this Problem, it is to be confidered, that the
Player whom I call A forces the Trumps neceflarily, if none of the
other Players whom I call B, C, D, has more than three Trumps ;
and therefore, if we calculate the Probability of any one of them
having more than three Trumps, which cafe is wholly againfl A,
we may from thence deduce what will be favourable to him ; but
let us firft fuppofe that he plays in black.
Since the number of Trumps in black is 1 1, and that A by fup
pofition has 6 of them, then the number of Trumps remaining
amongft 5, C, Z) is 5 ; and again, fince the number of all the other
remaining Cards, which we may call Blanks, is 29, whereof A has
4, it follows that there are 25 Blanks amongft B, C, D ; and there
fore the number of Chances for B in his i o Cards to have 4 Trumps
and 6 Blanks, is by the Corollary of the xx'"" Problem.
And likewife the number of Chances for his having 5 Trumps and 5
Blanks, is by the fame Corollary.
X
24 . 2?
O And
^8 The Doctrine oj Chances.
Ah^ therefore the number of all the Chartces of B againft A is
106 X 5 X 7 X 1 1 X 23 : but the number of Chances whereby any 10
Cards may be taken out of zo is ^° ^9 • ^8 . 2 . ;6 . z^ . 24 . 2? . 2z . 2.
Which being reduced to 5 x 7 x 9 x n x 13 ^ 23 x 29, it follows
that the Probability of B's having more than three Trumps is
106 X S .7 ■ J I ■ 23. 106 1 . .r. , f..
3.3.5.7.11 . 13 . 2^ 29 — 9 >; ,3 . 2g : but this Probability
falls as well upon C and D as upon B, and therefore it ought to be
multiplied by 3, which will make it ^ ^ ,'°^^ ^^ = ~ . and this
being fubtradled from Unity, the remainder ^^^ ^[\\ exprefs the
Probabihty of jfs forcing all the Trumps ; and therefore the Odds
of his forcing the Trumps are 1025 againft 106, that is 29 to 3
nearly.
But if y^ plays the fame Game in red, his advantage will be con
fiderably lels than before ; for there being 1 2 Tfumps in red, whereof
he has 6, B may have 4, or 5, or 6 of them, fo that the number
of the Chances which B has for more than three Trumps will be
Tefpe<SiveIy as follows :
6^ ; X 4 . 3 24 ■> 23 . 22 . 21 . 20 . 19.
"12.3.4 1 . 2 . 3 . '4 . s . 6
6 . 5 . 4. . 3 . 2 24. . 2g 22..: 2L . 20
J. 2. 3. 4. 5 1.2.3.4
5... 4.3.2.1 24 . 23 . 22 ■ 21
1.2.3.4.5.0 I .2.3.4
Now the Sum of all thofe Chances being 215 x 23 x 22 x 21, and
the Sum of all the Chances for taking any 10 Cards out of 30,
being 5 x 7 x 9 x ii x 13 x 23 x 29, as appears by the preceding
cafe, it follows, that the Probabihty of B's having more than three
T r^mps IS . . ,.g. ,. . ,3 . .3 . 29  — 3 ■ ■3.^9 ' ' ^"^ ^^'' Pro
bability falling as well upon C and D, as upon B, ought to be mul
tiplied by 3, which will make it ,^ _\^ = — ; and this being
fubtra<fted from Unity, the remainder — — , will exprefs the Pro
bability of A's forcing all the Trumps ; and therefore the Odds of
liis forcing all the Trumps is in this cafe 291 to 86, that is nearly
10 to 3.
PRO
iToe Doctrineo/"Chances. 99
PROBLEM XXVIII.
7^^ Player A having Spadille^ Manille, Kingy ^een,
and two /mail Trumps in blacky to jijid the Probability
of his forcing all the Trtwips.
Solution.
A forces the Trumps neceflarily, if Bafte accompanied with two
other Trumps be not in one of the Hands of B, C, D, and as
BaJIe ouglit to be in fome Hand, it is indifferent where we place
it ; let it therefore be fuppofed that B has it, in confequence of
which let us conllder the number of Chances for Ijis having be
fides Bajie,
1°. 2 Trumps and 7 Blanks.
2°. 3 Trumps and 6 Blanks.
3°. 4 Trumps and 5 Blanks.
Now the Blanks being in all 29, whereof A has 4, it follows
that the number of remaining Blanks is 25 ; and the number of
Trumps being in all 11, whereof A has 6 by Hypothefis, and B
has I, viz BafiCy it follows that the number of remaining Trumps
is 4 ; and therefore the Chances which B has againft the Player
are refpedively as follows :
1.2.
3.2.1
3
X
X
X
z, . 24
• 23
22 .
21 .
20 .
«9
1 . 2
^\ . 24
3 •
23
4 •
. 22 .
5 •
21
6 .
. 20
7
I . 2
25 . 24
1 . 2
• 3
• 3
4 •
. 22 .
4
5
21
5"
6
The Sum of all which is 1441 x 5 x 23 x 22 ; but the Sum ol
all the Chances whereby B may join any 9 Cards to the Bafte which
1 1 1 1 • 2q X 2S X 27 . 26 . 2C . 24 . 2T X C2 . 2 1
,he has already is f . , . 3 . 4—/— 6  7 T 39" — 29 x 7 x 3 x
13x5x23x11. and therefore the Probability of Bafie being in
one Hand, accompanied with t,wo Trijmps at leaft, is exprefled
L ..L C n. M4' • 5 ■ 23 • 2 ^ ' ' n: . 22 '882
by thePraftion ,, . , . . . .3. ;, ,,,,, — .^.;., ., = _t^
and this being fubtraded from Unity, the remainder will be
^Prr » and therefore the Odds of yf' s forcing the Trumps are 5035
to 2882, which are very near 7 to 4.
O 2 But
I CO I'he Doctrine o/* Chances.
But if it be in red, A has the fmall difadvantage of 19703 againft
19882, or nearly no againfl iii.
It is to be noted in this Propofition, that it is not now neceflary
to multiply by 3 ; by reafon that B reprefents indeterminately any
one of the three B, C, D : elfe if the cafe of having Ba/ie was deter
mined to B in particular, his probability of having it would only be
— : fo that the Chances afterwards being multiplied by 3, the So
lution would be the fame.
PROBLEM XXIX.
The Player having Spadille^ Manille^ and 5 other Trumps
more by the loweji in red^ what is the Probability^ by
playing Spadille and Manille, of his forcing 4 Trumps f
Solution.
The 5 remaining Trumps being between B^ C, £), their various
difpofitions are the following :
5,
C,
D
I,
2,
2
2,
3.
3.
I,
I
4,
I.
5.
0,
Which muft be underftood in fuch manner, that what is here
afligned to B may as well belong to C or JD.
Now it is plain, that out of thofe five difpofitions there are only
the two firft that are favourable to A, let us therefore fee what is the
Probability of the firft difpofition.
The number of Chances of B to have 1 Trump and 9 Blanks
C 2C 24 . 2^ . 22 . 21 :0 iq 18 !■'
are 7 X . . 2 . 3 . 4 ■ s ■ '■ — 7 ■ « ■ 9 ^S^ S^ S^''^ ^^7
X 19 X 23, but the number of all the Chances whereby he may take
any 10 Cards out of 30, is 5 x 7 x 9 x 1 1 x 13 x 23 x 29 as has
been feen already in one of the preceding Problems ; and therefore
the Probability of J5's having one Trump and nine Blanks is
<: • ? • 5 • " • ' 7 • '9 • '3 25 ■ '9 • '7
5 . 7 . 9 . >i . 13 . 23 . 29 7 • 9 • »3 • 29 *
Now
'The Doctrine o/"Chances. ioi
Now In order to find the number of Chances for C to have 2
Trumps and 8 Blanks, it muft be confidered that A having 7 Trumps,
and B i, the number of remaining Trumps is 4 ; and likevvife that
A having 3 Blanks, and B 9, the number of remaining Blanks is 16,
and therefore that the number of Chances for C to have 2 Trumps^
and 8 Blanks is
4 . ? 16 . I C . 14. . I ? . 12 . I I . 10 . Q /•
T.7 X . . . . 3 — 4 T 5— 6^— 8 = 6 X 9 X 10 X 1 1 X 13^
But the number of all the Chances whereby C may take any 10
Cards out of 20 remaining between him and D, is
20. 10 . 18 . 17 . 16 . i; . 14. 13 . 12 . ti
— :; i — 7 = 4x11x13x17x10,
I. z. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10 ^ •> I y*
and therefore the Probability of Cs having 2 Trumps and 8 Blanks is
6 . Q , 10.11 . 13 6 . 9 . 10 9 ■ I ;
4 . II . 13 . 17 . 19 4 ■ 17 • >9 »7 • '9
Now A being fuppofed to have had 7 Trumps, B r, and C 2,
D muft have 2 necefl'arily, and therefore no new Calculation ought
to be made on account of D. It follows therefore that the Proba
bility of the difpofition i, 2, 2, belonging refpedively to J?, C, Z),
ought to be expreffed by — ^ ' "^ ' ' ' — x '^ = — ^— — ^— — .
& r ^ 7 . 9 . 13 . 29 17 • '9 7 ■ 13 • 9
Now three things, whereof two are alike, being to be permuted
3 different ways, it follows that the Probability of the Difpofition
I, 2, 2, as it may happen in any order, will be ^ '^ ^\^ \ ^l =^ ItT^'
It will be found in the fame manner, that the Probability of the
Difpofition 2, 3, o as it belongs refpedlively to B, C, D, is
 ' • '' ' '° : but the number of Permutations of three things which
7.13.29' "
are all unlike being 6, it follows that the faid Probability ought to
be multiplied by 6, which will make it — ^ — / ■ — — = ^^ ' .
From all which it follows, that the Probability of A's forcing 4
Trumps is "^^^^' '"°  = 4f^ * which fradion being fubtradted
from Unity, the remainder will be 2ii , and therefore the Odds
. 239
of <fs forcing 4 Trumps are 1725 to 914, that is very near 17
to 9.
p R a>
I02
Ithe Doctrine o/" Chances.
PROBLEM XXX.
A the "Player having 4 Matadors^ in Diamonds^ with
the two black Ki?igs^ each accompanied with two fmcll
Cards of their own fuit ; what is the Probability that
no one of the others B, C, D, has more than 4 Trumps,
or in cafe he has more, that he has alfo of the fuit of
both his Kings ', in which cafes A wins neceffarily f
Solution.
The Chances that are againft A are as follows ; it being poffi
ble that B may have
Diamonds,
Hearts,
Number of Chances.
5,
5
14112
«,
4
5880
7»
3
960
"j
2
Sum
45
20997
Diamonds
Spades,
Hearts,
Number of Chances.
5»
I
4
70560
S»
2
3
100800
5»
3
2
50400
5>
4
I
8400
5»
5
,
336
6.
I
3 ,
20160
6,
2
2
18900
6,
3
1
5600
6,
4
1
420
7.
I
2
2 160
7.
2
I
1200
3
160
o»
I
I
60
8,
2
15
I
279171
Now
7^^ Doctrine o/" Chances. 103
Now by reafon that among B, C, D, there are as many Clubs as
Spades, viz.. 6 of each fort, it follows that the Clubs may be fub
flituted in the room of the Spades, which will double this kft num
ber of Chances, and make it 558342 ; and therefore, adding coge
ther the firft and fecond number of Chances, the Sum will be
579339. which will be the whole number of Chances, whereby S
may withfland the Expeaation of A; but the number of all the
■Chances which B has for taking any 10 Cards out of 30, is 5 x 7 x
9x11x13x23x29 = 300450 1 5 ; from which it follows that the
Probability of B's withftanding the Expedation of ^ is 304^0.5 *
but as this may fall as well upon C and D as upon B, it follows
that this Probability ought to be maltipiied by 3, then the Produdt
Ico^^^^^ will exprefs the Probability of A's lofingi and this being
fubtradled from Unity, the remainder will exprefs the Probability of
ul's winning ; and therefore the Odds of As winning will be little
more than 16 — to i.
4
PROBLEM XXXI.
A havtfjg Spadilk^ Manilk^ King, K?m've, and tW9
other fmall Trumps in black, what is the Probability
that Bajle accompanied with two other Trumps, or the
ilueen accompanied with three other, p.mll not be in the
fame hand \ in which cafe A wins necej[arily P
Solution.
The Probability of Bafle being in one hand, accompanied with
two other Trumps, has been found, in Problem xxviii, to be " ■ .
The number of Chances for him who has the Queen, to have alfo
three other Trumps, excluding Bafte, is
2 A 21 22 '*! '*'^
^ ^ ■ • " r=r 5 X7XIIX20X23
but the number of Chances for joining any 9 Cards to tlie Queen
is 3 X 5 X 7 X 1 1 X 13 X 23 X 29, and therefore the Probability of the
Queen's being in one hand, accompanied with three other Trumps, is
y . 7 . 1 1 ■ 20 3^ ;o 20 1 10
jx 5 . 7 . II . 13 . 23 . ^9 3.13. 29 1131 7917 '
now
104 ^^ Doctrine <j/'Chances.
now this Probability being added to the former, the Sum will be
■ ^°" ; and therefore the Odds of yf s not being withftood either
7917 ' o
from Bafte being accompanied with two other Trumps, or from the
Queen accompanied with three, are 4895 to 3022, nearly as 13
to 8.
It may be obferved, that the reafon of Bafte being excluded from
among the Trumps that accompany the Queen is this ; if the Queen
be accompanied with Bafte and two other Trumps, the Bafte itfelf
is accompanied with three Trumps, which cafe had been taken in
already in the firft part of the Solution.
PROBLEM XXXII.
A havinv three Matadors in Spades with the Kings of
Heart Sy Diamonds^ and Clubs, two fmali Hearts, and
two [mall Diamonds \ to find the Probability that not
above three Spades pall be in one hand, or that, if there
be above three, there pall be alfo of the fuits of the
three Kings ; in which cafe A wins 7tecejfarily,
Solution.
The Probability of not above ^three Trumps being in one hand
= 0.332141.
The Probability that one of the Oppofers fliall have 4 Trumps,
and at the fame time Hearts, Diamonds, and Clubs, and that no
other fliall have 4 Trumps, is =0.393501.
The Probability that two of the Oppofers fliall have 4 Trumps,
and at the fame time Hearts, Diamonds, and Clubs, is =: 0.013836.
The Probability that one of the Oppofers fliall have 5 Trumps,
and at the fame time Hearts, Diamonds, and Clubs, is = 0.103019.
The Probability that one of the Oppofers fliall have 6 Trumps,
Hearts, Diamonds, and Clubs, 15=^0.001041.
The Probability of one of the Oppofers having 7 Trumps, and
at the fame tiinc Hearts, Diamonds and Clubs, is = 0.0003 13.
Now the Sum of all thefe Probabilities is 0.843851, which being
fubtradted from Unity, the remainder is 0.156149 ; and therefore
the Odds of the Player's winning are as 843851 to 156 149, that is
very near as 27 to 5.
PRO
Th Doctrine ^Chances. 105
PROBLEM XXXIII.
'To find at Pharaon, how much it is that the Banker gets
per Cent, of all the Money that is adve?itured.
Hypothesis.
I fuppofe frjl^ that there is but one fingle Ponte j Secondly^ that
he lays his Money upon one fingle Card at a time ; Thirdly, that
he begins to take a Card in the beginning of the Game ; Fourthly,
that he continues to take a new Card after the laying down of every
couple : Fifthly y that when there remain but fix Cards in the Stock,
he ceafes to take a Card.
Sol u T ION.
When at any time the Ponte lays a new Stake upon a Card
taken as it happens out of his Book, let the number of Cards already
laid down by the Banker be fuppofed equal to x, and the whole
number of Cards equal to «.
Now in this circumftance the Card taken by the Ponte has pafl
four times, or three times, or twice, or once, or not at all.
F/r/?, If it has pafTed four times, he can be no lofer upon that
account.
Secondly, If it has pafTed three times, then his Card is once in the
Stock : now the number of Cards remaining in the Stock being
n — X, it follows by the firfl cafe of the xiii"' Problem, that the
Lofs of the Ponte will be ;— : but by the Remark belonging to
the xx**" Problem, the Probability of his Card's having pafTed three
times precifely in x Cards is ^ ,^_ ,' ' ^Z! IZ. • "o^"' ^"P
pofing the Denominator equal to S, multiply the Lofs he will fuitcr,
if he has that Chance, by the Probability of having it, and the
produa  • '~' ^/~' "^ will be his abfolute Lofs in that cir
cumflance.
Thirdly, If it has pafTed twice, his abfolute Lofs will, by the fame
Way of reafoning, be found to be • "' • ' ~ '  •' — ^+" ^
Fourthly, If it has pafl'ed once, his abfolute Lofs will be found to be
Fijtbly,
r — X . n
— X —
 C . ?K
— ?.r
"^ ^
2S'
Now
the
Sum
of
all tl:
2
;+5«
— 3* —
2
+ 3^5
io6' The. Doctrine <?/* Chances.
Fifthly, If it has not yet paflec^, his abfolute Lofs will be
Loffes of the Pontc will be
^ , and this is the Lofs he fuffers
by venturing a new Stake after any number of Cards x are
pafTed.
But the number of Couples which at any time are laid down,
is always one half of the number of Cards that are paffed ; where
fore calling t the number of thofe Couples, the Lois, of the Ponte
a! — — nn>r^n — 6t — 6tt{z^t
may be exprefled thus ^
Let now p be the number of Stakes which the Ponte adven
tures ; let alfo the Lofs of the Ponte be divided into two parts, viz.
and
And fince he adventures a Stake p times ; it follows that the firft
part of his lofs will be j
In order to find the fecond part, let / be interpreted fucceffively
by o, I, 2, 3, &c. to the laft term p — i ; then in the room of
bt we fhall have a Sum of Numbers in Arithmetic Progreffion to be
multiplied by 6 ; in the room of btt we fliall have a Sum of
Squares, whofe Roots are in Arithmetic Progreffion, to be multi
plied by 6 ; and in the room of 24^^ vve fhall have a Sum of Cubes,,
whofe Roots are in Arithmetic Progreffion, to be multiplied by
24.
Thefe feveral Sums being coUedled according to the Rule given
in the fecond Remark on the x''' Problem, will be found to be
(,._,,p^ + fft. + 2p ^^^ therefore the whole Lofs of the Ponte will be
6
pni — —p„„ + 5/»»4 6/+ — 1 4/» H 6pp + zp
2
z
" 5
Now this being the Lofs which the Ponte fuftains by adven
turing the Sum p, each Stake being fuppofed equal to Unity, it
follows that the Lofs per Cent, of the Ponte, is the quantity above
written multiplied by 100, and divided by />, which confidering
that S has been fuppofed equal to « x n — i x n — 2x n — 3, will
1 2.n — c \ p — J y 6pp — 8/> — 2 .^ ,_^
make It to be 'f^'jrTTTir^ ^ ^^"^ + • ,.«;, .a .,.3 ^ ^°° '
let
The Doctrine <?/"Chances. 107
let now n be interpreted by 52, and /> by 23 ; and the Lofs^^r Cent.
of the Ponte, or Gain per Cent, of the Banlcer, will be found to be
2.99251 ; that is 2^ — 19/^ — lO'^ per Cent.
By the fame Method of procefs, it will be found that the Gain
per Cent, of the Banker at Bajfette will be  — „^_"~'^„_^ x 100 4
'^^ ^~ '_ ^~^_ ^ io° Let K be interpreted by 5 1 , and /> by 23 ;
and the foregoing expreffion will become 0.790582 or 15^^ — 9 ~" •
The confideration of the firft Stake which is adventured before the
Pack is turned being here omitted, as being out of the gene
ral Rule ; but if that cafe be taken in, the Gain of the Banker will
be diminifhed, and be only 0.76245, that is \^fi — 3 '^ very near;
and this is to be eftimated as the Gain per Cent, of the Banker,
when he takes but half Face.
Now whether the Ponte takes one Card at a time, or feveral
Cards, the Gain per Cent, of the Banker continues the fame : whe
ther the Ponte keeps conftantly to the fame Stake, or fome time
doubles or triples it, the Gain per Cent, is flill the fame : whether
there be one fingle Ponte or feveral, his Gain per Cent, is not
thereby altered. Wherefore the Gain per Cent, of the Banker, upon
all the Money that is adventured at Pbaraon, is 2^' — 19/" — lo''
and at Bajfette 15 / 3 '^•
PROBLEM XXXIV.
Suppojifig A and B to play together , that the Cha?ices they
have refpeEiively to wm are as a to b, and that B
obliges himfelf to fet to Kfo long as A wins without in
terruption : what is the advantage that A gets by his
hand f
Solution.
Firfl^ If A and B ftake i each, the Gain of A on the firft
Game is
Secondly, His Gain on the fecond Game will aUo be ^T^' ,
provided he (hould happen to win the firft : but the Probability
of A's winning the firft Game k 4— . Wherefore his Gain on
the fecond Game will be —^— x "~^ . .
af b a\b
P 2 Thirdly,
io8 Tl^e Doctrine ^Chances.
Thirdly^ His Gain on the third Game, after winning the two
firft, will be likewife J^^ : but the Probability of his winning
the two firft Games is ====rr j wherefore his Gain on the third
" + /)••
Gna a — b
ame is ■>. x .
u ■'f by a + d
Fourthly, Wherefore the Gain of the Hand of A is an infinite
Series : viz. i \ — ;— J — ■ ■. i _, 4_ ■ &c
to be multiplied by ^~^ : but the Sum of that infinite Series is
^4^ J wherefore the Gain of the Hand of ^ is ^^ x ""^ =
a — 6
b
Corollary i.
HA has the advantage of the Odds, and B fets his hand out,
the Gain of ^is the difference of the numbers expreffing the Odds,
divided by the leffer. Thus if A has the Odds of 5 to 3, then
his Gain will be ''~  = — .
3 3
Corollary 2.
If B has the difadvantage of the Odds, and A fets his hand out,
the Lofs of B will be the difference of the numbers expreffing the
Odds divided by the greater : thus if B has but 3 to 5, his Lofs will
bei.
5
Corollary 3.
If A and B do mutually engage to fet to one another, as long
as either of them wins without interruption, the Gain of A will
be found to be ■— ^^ — ; that is the Sum of the numbers expref
fing the Odds multiplied by their difference, the Produdt of that
Multiplication being divided by the Produdt of the numbers expref
fing the Odds. Thus if the Odds were as 5 to 3, the Sum of 5
and 3 being 8, and the difference being 2 , multiply 8 by 2, and
divide the produft 16, by the produdt of the numbers expreffing
the Odds, which is 1 5, and the Quotient will be y , or i —  ,
which therefore will be the Gain of A.
Corollary 4.
But if he be only to be fet to, who wins the firft time, and that
he be to be fet to as long as he wins without interruption ; then the
Gain
7%e Doctrine ^Chances. 109
Gain oi A will be "'"— : thus if a be 5, and ^ 3, the Gain
of ^ will be _^ = f2.
120 DO
PROBLEM XXXV.
Any number of Letters a, b, c, d, e, f, &*€. all of them
different, bei?ig taken promifciwufly as it happens : to find
the Probability that fome of thejn Jhall be fou72d in their
places according to the rank they obtain in the Alpha
bet \ and that others of them JJjall at the fame time be
difplaced.
Solution.
Let the number of all the Letters be = « ; let the number of
thofe that are to be in their places be =/>, and the number of
thofe that are to be out of their places = q. Suppofe for brevity's fake
i_ I I I
n ' n . n — I ' n . n — i . n — 2 ' n . n — I . n — 2 . n — 3
z=zv, &c. then let all the quantities i,r, s, /, v, &c. be written down
with Signs alternately pofitive and negative, iDeginning at i, if /» be
r= o ; at r, if /> be = I : at s, if p be = 2, &c. Prefix to thefe
Quantities the Coefficients of a Binomial Power, whofe index is
= q ; this being done, thofe Quantities taken all together will ex
press the Probability required. Thus the Probability that in 6 Letters
taken promifcuoufly, two of them, viz. a and b fliall be in their
places, and three of them, viz. c, d, e, out of their places, will be
__; 3 J I ; "
6.5 6.5.4~r 6.5.4.3 0.5.4.3.2 720
And the Probability that a fhall be in its place, and b, c, d, e, out
of their places, will be
_i. __ ^ \ 6 4 J I "^S
6 t>.5~i~h.5.4 6.5.4.3 16. 5. 4. 3. 2 720
The Probability that a fhall be in its place, and b, c, d, e,f, out
of their places, will be
"T"o.5.4 O.5.4.3I0.5.4.
6.5 ' 0.5.4 <^S'43 ' 0.5.4.3.2 0.5.4.3.2.1
44 "
720 ibe
The
no Tl^e Doctrine o/" Chances.
The Probability that c, ^, f , </, f , / {hall all be difplaced is
6^ i_ 1 ? 20 , I c 6
^ 6 "''6.5 (> . 5 4 "■" t'543 6.S432
+ ' I < ■ I < I I '
0.5.4.3.2.1 I2 bl24 120' 7Z0
g6c; __ 53
720 ■ 144
Hence it may be concluded, that the Probability that one of
them at leaft fhall be in its place, is i ^  4 — ^ — 4"
— ! ^— = ^^ , and that the Odds that one of them at
120 720 144
leaft fliall be fo found, areas 91 to ^'>^.
It muft be obferved, that the foregoing Expreflion may ferve for
any number of Letters, by continuing it to fo many Terms as there
are Letters: thus if the number of Letters had been feven, the
Probability required would have been ^ .
Demonstration.
Tlie number of Chances for the Letter a to be in tlie firft place,
contains the number of Chances by which a being in the firft place,
6 may be in the fecond, or out of it : This is an Axiom of common
Senfe of the fame degree of evidence, as that the whole is equal to all
its parts.
From this it follows, that if from the number of Chances that
there are for a to be in the firft place, there be fubtradted the num
ber of Chances that there are for ^ to be in the firft place, and 6
at the fame time in the fecond, there will remain the number of
Chances by which a being in the firft place, l> may be excluded
the fecond.
For the fame reafon it follows, that if from the number of
Chances for a and l> to be refpeftively in the firft and fecond places,
there be fubtrad:ed the number of Chances by which a, i>, and c
may be refpedtively in the firft, fecond, and third places ; there
will remain the number of Chances by which a being in the firft,
and b in the fecond, c may be excluded the third place : and fo of
the reft,
hi \ a denote the Probability that a fliall be in the firft place,
and let — a denote the Probability of its being out of it. Likewife
let the Probabilities that i> (hall be in the fecond place, or out of it,
be refpecSively expreft by } (^ and — if.
Let
The Doctrine <7/Chances. hi
Let the Probability that a being in the firft place, b fhall be in the
fecond, be exprefTed by a ■\ b : Likewile let the Probability that a
being in the firft place, b fhall be excluded the fecond, be exprefTed
by a — b.
Univerfally. Let the Probability there is that as many as are to be
in their proper places, (liall be {o, and that as many others as are
at the fame time to be out of their proper places fhall be fo found,
be denoted by the particular Probabilities of their being in their
proper places, or out of them, written all together : So that, for in
ftance a ■\ b •\ c — d — e, may denote the Probability that <?, ^,
and c (hall be in their proper places, and that at the fame time both
d and e fhall be excluded their proper places.
Now to be able to derive proper Conclufions by virtue of this No
tation, it is to be obferved, that of the Quantities which are here
confidered, thofe from which the Subtradlion is to be made are in
differently compofed of any number of Terms conneded by  and
— ; and that the Quantities which are to be fubtradled do exceed
by one Term thofe from which the Subtradlion is to be made , the
reft of the Terms being alike, and their Signs alike ; then nothing
more is requifite to have the remainder, than to preferve the Quan
tities that are alike, with their proper Signs, and to change the
Sign of the Quantity exceeding.
It having been demonflrated in what we have faid of Permutations
and Combinations, that a^=. — •. a\b:= » — ' ; a A b ■\ c^=.
^ , &c. let — , ! , &c. be refpedlively called
r, s, /, V, &c. this being fuppofed, we may come to the following
Conclufions.
b =r
b ^ a ^= s
then 1°. b — a^=r — s
c ■\ b Trr i for the fame reafon that a ^ b^=: s.
_cj\ b { a^t
2*. 7~4 ^ — a^=s — ;
f — a =r — s by the firft Conclufion.
c —. a ■] b = \ s — ^by the fecond.
c — a — b ^=f — 2s\t
3
'd{' c } b = t
d ■} c \ b \a:=v
A.'>. d i c i^b — a = t — v
■ ^h^
112 7^^ Doctrine of Chauces,
d Yc — a =^s — t by the fecond Conclufion.
d \c — a r i' = / — u by the fourth.
5°. ^ 4"^ — ^ — ^ = J 2/ V
~d —b ^ a z= r— 25] / by the third Conclufion.
d —b — a \ c ■= s —zt f *" by the fifth.
By the fame procefs, if no letter be particularly afTigned to be in
its place the Probability that fuch of them as are afligned may be out
of their places, will likewife be found thus.
— ar= I — r, for 4" ^ and — a together make Unity.
— a ]^ b ^=r — shy the firft Conclufion.
7". — a — ■ b ■= I — 2r •\ s
— a — b r=z I — 2r \ s by the feventh Conclufion.
— a — b •\ c = r — 2s } t hy the third.
8". — a — b — c = I — S'" j 35 — A
Now examining carefully all the foregoing Conclufions, it will
be perceived, that when a Queftion runs barely upon the difplacing
any given number of Letters, without requiring that any other fhould
be in its place, but leaving it wholly indifferent ; then the Vulgar
Algebraic Quantities which lie at the righthand of the Equation?,
be<^in conftantly with Unity ; it will alfo be perceived, that when
one finp'le Letter is afijgned to be in its place, then thofe Quan
tities begin with r, and that when two Letters are affigned to be
in their places, they begin with j, and fo on : moreover 'tis ob
vious, that thefe Quantities change their Signs alternately, and that
the numerical Coefficients, which are prefixed to them are thofe of a
Binomial Power, whofe Index is equal to the number of Letters
which are to be difplaced.
PROBLEM XXXVI.
y^^jy given number of Letters a, b, c, d, e, f, &'c. be
ing each repeated a certain number of times^ and taken
promifcuoufy as it happens : To find the Probability
that of fome of thofe forts, fo?ne ojte Letter of each may
be found i7i its place ^ and at the fame ti7ne^ thatoffojne
other forts^ no ofte Letter be found in its place.
S L u
The Doctrine £/"Chances. 113
SoLUT ION.
Suppofe n be the number of all the Letters, / the number of
times that each Letter is repeated, and confequently — the whole
number of Sorts : fuppofe alfo that p be the number of Sorts of
which fome one Letter is to be found in its place, and q the number
of Sorts of which no one Letter is to be found in its place.
Let now the prefcriptions given in the preceding Problem be
followed in all refpedls, faving that r mufl here be made =  ,
i=. , /= , &c. and the Solution of any
n . ft ^— I « . /?— I ft ^"^ 2 ^
particular cafe of the Problem will be obtained.
Thus if it were required to find the Probability that no Letter
of any fort fhall be in its place, the Probability thereof would be
exprefled by the Series
2I1.2 1.2.3 I 1.2.3.4
of which the number of Terms is equal to ^  i.
But in this particular cafe q would be equal to y , and therefore,
the foregoing Series might be changed into this, viz.
I » — / I n — / . n — 2/ . I n — / . n—il. n — 3/
a « — I 6 » — I . n — 2 ~t" 24. » — I . n — 2 . n — 3 » ^^'
of which the number of Terms is equal to ^^ .
Corollary i.
From hence it follows, that the Probability of one or more
Letters, indeterminately taken, being in their places, will be ex
prefled as follows :
n—l , I n—l . n — 2/ I _^ » — / . n — 7/ . n — %l
"2+"
I n—l , I n—l . n — 2/ I » — / . n — 7/ . n — %l
Co ROLLARY 2.
The Probability of two or more Letters indeterminately taken
being in their places, will be
+ 7^ X 737 i^' &c. wherein it is neceflary to obferve, that
the Capitals A^ B, C, D, Sec. denote the preceding Terms.
Q^ Altho'
114 ^^ Doctrine of Chaucer.
Altho' the formation of this lafl Series flows naturally from
what we have already eftabliflied, yet that nothing may be want
ing to clear up this m.atter, it is to be obferved, that if one Species
is to have fome one of its Letters in its proper place, and the reft
of the Species to be excluded, then the Series whereby the Problem
is determined being Jo begin at r, according to the Precepts given in
ihe preceding Problem, becomes
but then the number of Species being j , and all but one being
ft fl •— /
to be excluded, it follows that tj in this cafe is = 7— i = — 7—
wherefore the preceding Series would become, after the proper Sub
ftitutions,
/ n — /./ , I »— / . n—zl.l I H — l.n — il . n — 3/./ o^
~ — 4 X T X > occ.
a n.n — l ' 2 n . n — i.n — 2 6 n.n — l.n — 2.B — 3
And this is the Probability that fome one of the Letters of the
Species particularly given, may obtain its place, and the reft of the
Species be excluded ; but the number of Species being ~ , it fol
lows that this Series ought to be multiplied by 7 , which will
make it
» — / , I « — / . n — 2/ I n — / . n — 2/. n — xl .
_ ___ ^___ _l ■ y — — X ■ ^ &C
•* n — I *^ 2 n — I • « — 2 6 n — i . n—z . n — 3 ' **'*"
And this is the Probability that fome one Species indeterminately
taken, and no more than one, may have fome one of its Letters in
its proper place.
Now if from the Probability of one or more being in their places,
be fubtraded the Probability of one and no more being in its place,
there will remain the Probability of two or more indeterminately taken
being in their places, which confequently will be the difference be
tween the following Series, viz.
I n — / j^ I n—l . t i — 2/ ' V. "—l ■ n—zl. n — 3/ «
1 — 7 X "lirr "T ? ^ »i . »_2 "^ 1; ni . nZ . «3 ' "'*^*
, n—l,l n — / . n— 2/ 1 „ "— I ■ nrzl . a— 3/ «
and I — X r X ^ , occ.
*"" * n I ' 2 « — I • n — 2 t) n — i . n—z . n — 3 '
which difference therefore will be
I
7155 Doctrine (?/" Chances. 115
orx X A A ^— X B rrx C.&c.
2 n—\ 1.3 »— 2 I 2.4 n— 3 3.5 n — 4 »
as we had expreffed It before : and from the fame way of reafoning,
the other following Corollaries may be deduced.
Corollary 3.
The Probability that three or more Letters indeterminately taken
may be in their places, will be expreffed by the Series
1 «— / ■ «— 2/ ^ " %l y, y 4 tt — ^l p
■g" X „_i . »2 "" I . 4 ^ »— 3 ^"1" 2.5 ^ »— 4 ^
r X — C\ X — rD., &c.
3.6 » — 5 I 4 . 7 n — & '
Corollary 4.
The Probability that four or more Letters indeterminately taken
may be in their places will be thus expreffed
I „— / . n—ii . f,—ii _i_ V J— i{ ^ J L_ V .Zz£r
24 ^ »— I . »— 2 . «— 3 1.5 ^ n— 4 ^ "1" 2 . 6 ^ a— 5 ^
X r C, &C.
3 . 7 n — o »
The Law of the continuation of thcfe Series being manifeft, it
will always be eafy to aflign one that fhall fit any cafe propofed.
From what we have faid it follows, that in a common Pack of
52 Cards, the Probability that one of the four Aces may be in
the firft place, or one of the four Deuces in the fecond, or one of
the four Trays in the third ; or that fome of any other fort may be in its
place (making 1 3 different places in all) will be expreffed by the Series
exhibited in the firft Corollary.
It follows likewife, that if there be two Packs of Cards, and that
the order of the Cards in one of the Packs be the Rule whereby to
eftimate the rank which the Cards of the fame Suit and Name are to
obtain in the other j the Probability that one Card or more in one
of the Packs may be found in the fame pofition as the like Card
in the other Pack, will be expreffed by the Series belonging to the
firft Corollary, making « = 52, and /= i. Which Series will in
this cafe be i — r .7 f ^ — ^ I ' 1— , &c. whereof
,2 ' O 1^ ' 120 720
52 Terms are tb be taken.
Q2 If
ii6 Ite Doctrine ij/'Chances,
If the Terms of the foregoing Series arc joined by Couples, the
Series will become
lLJ L '—A ' I '
2 ' 2.4 1 2.3.4.6 I 2.3.4.5.6.8 T^z. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10
&c. of which 26 Terms ought to be taken.
But by reafon of the great Convergency of the faid Series, a few
of its Terms will give a fufficient approximation, in all cafes , as.
appears by the following Operation
— =0.500000
— = 0.125000
3 •4 S fe. 7
2.3.4.6 =0006944+
■^i^g^ =0.000174 +
=0.000002 +
in '
Sum ==0.632120 +
Wherefore the Probability that one or more like Cards in two
different Packs may obtain the fame pofition, is very nearly 0.632,
and the Odds that this will happen once at lead as 632 to 368,
or 1 2 to 7 very near.
But the Odds that two or more like Cards in two different
Packs will not obtain the fame pofition are very nearly as 736 to 264,
or 14 to 5.
Remark.
It is known that i Ary \ — y y \ "^ y^ ~l" TT y^^^ '^^ the num
ber whofe hyperbolic Logarithm is y, and therefore i —^ ^
Lyy _^^3 _j — L_^+ &c. is the Number whofe hyperbolic Lo
garithm is — y. Let A^ be =:/ — ^yy + ^ ;'? j;'* &c.
then I — iV is the Number whofe hyperbolic Logarithm is — y.
Let now ^ be = 1, therefore i — iV is the number whofe hyperbolic
Logarithm is — 1 ; but the number whofe hyperbolic Logarithm
is — 1, is the reciprocal of that whofe hyperbolic Logarithm is i,
or whofe Briggian Logarithm is 0.4342944. Therefore 95657056
i& the Briggian Logarithm anfwering to the hyperbolic Logarithm
— I, but the number anfwering to it is 0.36788. Therefore i —
N= 0.36788 ; and N=^ i — 0.36788 =: 0.63212 j and there
fore
7^5 Doctrine ^ Chances* 117
fore the Series _y — ijyr^_I.^j— ._L.^4 &€. in infinitum^ when
y = I, that is i — 1 + 1 — ^ &c. = 0.67212.
^ 2 * 6 24 J
Corollary 5.
If A and 5 each holding a Pack of Cards, pull them out at
the fame time one after another, on condition that every time two
like Cards are pulled out, A (hall give B a Guinea ; and it were
required to find what confideration B ought to give A to play on
thofe Terms : the Anfwer will be one Guinea, let the number of
Cards be what it will.
Altho' this be a Corollary from the preceding Solutions, yet it may
more eafily be made out thus ; one of the Packs being the Rule
whereby to eflimate the order of the Cards in the fecond, the Pro
bability that the two firfl Cards are alike is ^ , the Probability
that the two fecond are alike is alfo — , and therefore there be
ing 52 fuch alike combinations, it follows that the Value of the
whole is — =1^
COROL L A R Y 6.
If the number of Packs be given, the Probability that any given
number of Circumftances may happen in any number of Packs,
will eafily be found by our Method : thus if the number of Packs
be k, the Probability that one Card or more of the fame Suit and
Name in every one of the Packs may be in the fame pofition, will.
be expreflTed as follows,
. n — I I t . n
]kz > &C.
. » — I . »— 2 . n — V
n 2 . n . n — 1 6 . n . n — I . n — i,
I
24 . n . » — 1 . »— 2 . n — 3/
PROBLEM XXXVII.
If A and B play together each with a certain 7tumber of
Bowls = n : what are the refpe&ive Probabilities of
winning, fuppofing that each of them wa?it a certai?t
number of Games ofbeiftg up ?>
SOLU
I J 8 7^^' Doctrine ^Ckances.
Solution.
Firjl^ The Probability that fome Bowl of B may be nearer the
Jack than any Bowl of y^ is — 5 A and B in this Problem being
fuppofed equal Players. ^ • _
ISecondlyy Suppoiing one of his Bowls nearer' the Jack than any
Bowl of /I, the number of his remaining Bowls is n — i, and the
number of all the Bowls remaining between them is 2k —  i :
wherefore the Probability that fome other of his Bowls may be
nearer the Jack than any Bowl of A will be J~ ■, from whence
it follows, that the Probability of his winning two Bowls or more is
— X
2
Thirdly^ Suppofing two of his Bowls nearer the Jack than any
Bowl of y^, the Probability that fome other of his Bowls may be nearer
the Jack than any Bowl of A, will be —Ett ' therefore the Pro
bability of his winning three Bowls or more is ^ x ~Er~ ^ ~zr~ •
the continuation of which procefs is manifeft.
Fourthly y The Probability that one finglc Bowl of 5fhallbenearer
the Jack than any Bowl of ^ is 7 — 7 x ^^ or 7 x J_^ ;
for if from the Probability that one or more of his Bowls may
be nearer the Jack than any Bowl of A, there be fubtraded the
Probability that two or more may be nearer, there remains the pro
bability of one finglc Bowl of J3 being nearer : in this cafe B is faid
to win one Fowl at an end.
Fifthly, The Probability that two Bowls of B, and not more,
may be nearer the Jack than any Bowl of A, will be found to be
L X ■ "~' X —  — , in which cafe, B is faid to win two Bowls
2 Z« — I zn—z
at an end.
Sixthly, The Probability that B may win three Bowls at an
end will be found to be 7 x ^^ x £^ x ^ ; the pro
cefs whereof is manifeft.
It may be obferved, that the foregoing Expreflions might be re
duced to fewer Terms ; but leaving them unreduced, the Law of
the Procefs is thereby made more confpicuous.
It is carefully to be obferved, when we mention henceforth
the probability of winning two Bowls, that the Senfe of it ought
to be extended to two Bowls or more j and that when we men
tion
The Doctrine ©/"Chances. 119
tion the winning two Bowls at an end, it ought to be taken in
the common acceptation of two Bowls only : the like being to be
obferved in other cafes.
This preparation being made ; fuppofe that A wants one Game
of being up and B two ; and it be required in that circumftance to
determine their probabilities of winning.
Let the whole Stake between them be fuppofed = r. Then
either A may win a Bowl, or B win one Bowl at an end, or B may
win two Bowls.
In the firfl: cafe be lofes his Expectation,
In the fecond cafe B becomes intitled to ^ of the Stake, but
the probability of this cafe is  x ^^ • Wherefore his Expec
tation arifing from that part of the Stake he will b? intitled to, if this
Cafe (hould happen, and from the probability of its happening, will
be— X  ^^_ ^ '
In the Third cafe, B wins the whole Stake i, but the probability
...  . I n — I
of this Cafe, is 7 x ^^_,  .
From this it follows, that the whole ExpeQation of B is equal to
 X — ^ 1 L X ^^^^ , or ^^^^ . Which being fubtraded from
Unity, the remainder will be the Expecftation of A, viz. ■^— .
It may therefore be concluded that the Probabilities which A and B
have of winning are refpeftively as 5« — 2 to 3« — 2.
'Tis remarkable, that the fewer the Bowls are the greater is the
proportion of the Odds ; for if A and B play with fingle Bowls,
the proportion will be as 3 to 1 j if they play with two Bowls each,
the proportion will be as 2 to i j if they play with three Bowls
each, the proportion will be as 13 to 65 yet let the number of
Bowls be never fo great, that proportion will not defcend fo low as
5 to 3
Let us now fuppofe that A wants one Game of being up, and
jB three ; then either A may win a Bowl, or B one Bowl at an end,
or two Bowls at an end, or three Bowls.
In the fir ft Cafe, B lofes his Expectation.
If the fecond Cafe happen, then B will be in the circumftance
of wanting but two to A's one j in which cafe his Expectation will
be '^^^_ ' , as it has been before determined : but the probability
that this*Cafc may happen is 4 x — ^ j wherefore the Expecta
tion
I20 7"/^^ Doctrine «/ Chances.
tion Off B arifing from the profped of this Cafe will be equal to
1 » T.lt—2
— X X ?
2 2« — 1 s« — 4
If the third Cafe happen, then B will be intitled to one half of
the Stake : but the Probability of its happening is — x "~' ■ x
—  — ; wherefore the Expe<3:ation of B arifing from the profpedl of
this cafe is  x x — — ■ or ^
4 in — I 2'? — 2 8 2« — I
If the fourth Cafe happen, then B wins the whole Stake i :
but the Probability of its happening is 7 x £^7" ^ zn—z °^
I n — 2
— X
^ zn — I
From this it follows, that the whole Expeftation of B will be
q«i>— 1^» 4_ _ ^j^j(.}^ being fubtradked from Unity, the remainder
8 X zn — 1 !■
will be the Expedation of ^, vtz. — — ^— .^ . It may there
fore be concluded that the Probabilities which A and B have of
winning will be as 23«« — ign\/\.to gnn — i3«l4.
N. B. If A and B play only with one Bowl each, the Expeda
tion of B as deduced from the foregoing Theorem would be found
n= o, which we know from other principles ought to be =  ,
The reafon of which is, that the cafe of winning two Bowls at an
end, and the cafe of winning three Bowls enter the general con
clufion, which cafes do not belong to the Suppofition of playing
with lingle Bowls ; wherefore excluding thofe two Cafes, the Ex
pedation of B will be found to be 7 x ^^_  x ■• '^,^_^ = j ,
which will appear if n be made = i. But the Expedation of B
in the cafe of two Bowls would be rightly determined from the
general Solution : the reafon of which is, that the Probability of
winning three Bowls being univerfally  x ^^^_ ~  , that Expreflion
becomes = o, when « is interpreted by 2 ; which makes it that
the general Expreflion is applicable to this Cafe.
After what has been faid, it will be cafy to extend this way of
reafoning to any circumftance of Games wanting between A and
B ; by making the Solution of each Ampler Cafe fubfervient to the
Solution of that which is next more compounded.
Having given formerly the Solution of this Problem, propofed to
mc by the Honourable Fraficis Robartes Efq;, in the Pbilofophical
TrafjfaSiiom Number 329 j I there faid, by way of Corollary, that
if
Ihe Doctrine <?/ Chances. 121
if the proportion of Skill in the Gamefters were given, the Problem
might alfo be folved : fince which time M. de Monniort, in the fccond
Edition of a Book by him publiflied upon the Subjedl of Chance, has
folved this Problem as it is extended to the confideration of the Skill,
and to carry his Solution to a great number of Cafes, giving alfo a
Method whereby it might be carried farther : But altho' his Solution
is good, as he has made a right ufe of the Dodrine of Combinations,
yet I think mine has a greater degree of Simplicity, it being dedu«
ced from the original Principle whereby I have demonflrated the
Dod:rine of Permutations and Combinations : wherefore to make it
as familiar as pofTible, and to fhew its vaft extent, I fhall now ap
ply it to the general Solution of this Problem, by taking in the con
fideration of the Skill of the Gameflers.
But before I proceed, it is necefiary to define what I call Skill :
viz. that it is the proportion of Chances which the Gamefters may
be fuppofed to have for winning a fingle Game with one Bowl each.
PROBLEM XXXVIII. '
If A and B, whofe proportion of Jkill is as a to b, play
together each with a certain number of Bowls : what
are their refpeEiive Probabilities of wimiing., f^ppof^g
each of them to want a certain number of Gatnes of
being up f
Solution.
F/'r/?, The Chance of B for winning one fingle Bowl being h,
and the number of his Bowls being w, it follows that the Sum of
all his Chances is nb ; and for the fame reafon, the Sum of all the
Chances of A\% na : wherefore the Sum of all the Chances for win
ning one Bowl or more is na\7ib ; which for brevity's fake we may
call/ From whence it follows, that the Probability which B has of
winning one Bowl is — .
Secondly, Suppofing one of his Bowls nearer the Jack than any
of the Bowls of A, the number of his remaining Chances is n — i x b ;
and the number of Chances remaining between them is s — b :
wherefore the Probability that fome other of his Bowls may be
nearer the Jack than any Bowl of A will be "~ /l' — ; from whence
it follo ws th at the Probability of his winning two Bowls or more is
nh pi — \ x. b
T ^ fb •
R lhirdh\
122 The Doctrine <?/" Chances.
Thirdly^ Suppofing two of his Bowls nearer the Jack than any
of the Bowls of ^, the number of his remaining Chances is n — 2x^1
and the number of Chances remaining between them is j — 2^ ;
wherefore the Probability that fome other of his Bowls may be
nearer the jack than any Bowl of A will be ■='^t~^{, — . From
whence it follows that the Probability of his winning three Bowls
or more is —j x — r^ — x • / ^^ — j the continuation of which
procefs is manifeft.
Fourthly, If from the Probability which B has of winning one
Bowl or more, there be fubtra(fted the Probability which he has of
winning two or more, there will remain the Probability of his win
ning one Bowl at an end : which therefore will be found to be
nb nb n — i x ^ nb i — nb nh an
X ' . ,  , or — T X —? — r , or —r x
Fifthly^ For the fame reafons as above, the Probabili ty wh ich B
has of winning two Bowls at an end, will be ^ x "T_^^ — x
Stxihiy, And for the fame rcafon likewlfe, the Probability which
J3 has of winning three Bowls at an end will be found to be
~ X  ""7 ' I — X  "r^l  X /" , i The continuation of which
/ /— * _ J~zb /— 3*
procefs is manifeft,
N. B. The fame Expedlations which denote the Probability of
any circumftance of B will denote likewlfe the Probability of the
like circumftance of A, only changing ^ into a, and a into l>.
Thefe things being premlfed, fuppofe Jir/i, that each wants one
Game of being up ; 'tis plain, that the Expedations of A and B
are refpedlively j and ~ . Let this Expedation of B be cal
led P.
Secotidly, Suppofe A wants one Game of being up, and B two,
and let the Expedation of B be required : then either A may win
a Bowl, or B win one Bowl at an end, or B win two Bowls.
If the firft Caie happens, B lofes his Expedation,
If the fecond happens, he gets the Expedation P ; but the Pro
bability of this Cafe is ^ x ^ : wherefore the Expedation of
B arifing from the poflibility that it may fo happen is ^ x jzf
X P,
If
'T}:)e DocTR I N E <?/ Chances. 123
If the third Cafe happens, he gets the whole Stake 1 ; but the
Probability of this Cafe is ^ x ■ " . ~ ; wherefore the Expedation
ofSarifing from the Probability of this Cafe is — ; x ._  x i.
From which it follows, that the whole Expedation of B will be
y X ■ _^ X P  "7~ X TZT • Let this Expedlation be cal
led Q.
Thir^fyt Suppofe yi to want one Game of being up, and B three :
then either B may win one Bowl at an end, in which Cafe he gets
the Expedlation Qj or two Bowls at an end, in which Cafe he gets
the Expedation P > or three Bowls, in which Cafe he gets the whole
Stake I. Wherefore the Expedation of B will be foned to be
n — 2y.b
^ f—zb •
An infinite number of thefe Theorems may be formed in the fame
manner, which may be continued by infpedlion, having well ob
fervcd how each of them is deduced from the preceding.
If the number of Bowls were unequal, fo that A had tn Bowls,
and By n Bowls j then fuppofing ma \ nb = i, other Theorems
might be found to anfwer that inequality : and if that inequality
fhould not be conftant, but vary at pleafure ; other Theorems might
alfo be found to anfwer that Variation of inequality, by following
the fame way of arguing. And if three or more Gamefters were
to play together under any circumftance of Games wanting, and of
any given proportion of Skill, their Probabilities of winning might
be determined in the fame manner.
PROBLEM XXXIX.
To find the ExpeSiation of A, when wiih a Die of any
given number of Faces^ he undertakes to fling any num
ber of them in any given number of Cafis.
SOLU T 10 N.
Let p \ \ he the number of all the Faces in the Die, n the
number of Cads, f the number of Faces which he undertakes to
fling.
R 2 The
124 "^be Doctrine c/ Chances.
The number of Chances for the Ace to come up once or more
in any number of Cafts «, is /> J iV — p" • as has been proved
in the Introduction.
Let the Deux^ by thought, be expunged out of the Die, and
thereby the number of its Faces reduced to />, then the number of
Chances for the Ace to come up will at the fame time be reduced
tQ /,•! — p — y\" . Let now the Deux be reftored, and the number
of Chances for the Ace to come up without the Deux, will be the
fame as if the Deux were expunged : But if from the number of
Chances for the Ace to come up with or without the Deux, viz.
i'xomp 10" — P' ^^ fubtraded the num ber of Chances for the
Ace to come up without the Deux, •viz.p'' — p — iV> there will re
main the number of Chances for the Ace and the Deux to come up
once or more in the given number of Cafts, which number of Chances
confcquently will be p \ i]" — 2/' {■ p — "TA".
By the fame way of arguing it will be proved, that the number
of Chances, for the Ace and Deux to come up without the T'ray^
will be*' — 2 X /» — r\ ' \ p — 2I " , and confequently that the
number of Chances for the Ace, the Deux, and T'ray to come up
once or more, will be the di fferenc e between/* fi^" — ^P" 4" P — ^^ ">
and p^ — 7.Y.P — '\\" 4  p — 2\ " which therefore will be /> + A "
Again, it may be proved that the number of Chances for th e
Ace^ the Deux, the T ray, and the S^ uatre to come up is p \ il "
— 4 X/*' f 6 x/* — A " • — 4 X/* — 2^ » + / — 3^ " ; the continua
tion of which procefs is manifeft.
Wherefore if all the Powers /i il", p'> , p — i 1«, p — z\" y
p — 3Y', &c. with Signs alternately pofitive and negative be writ
ten in order, and to thofe Powers there be prefixed the refpec
tive Coefficients of a Binomial raifed to the Power /, expreffing
the number of F;?ees required to come up ; the Sum of all thofe
Terms will be the Num erator of the Expedlation of A, of which
the Denominator will hQ p \ iV.
Example i.
Let Six be the number of Faces in the Die, and let A under
take in eight Cafts to fling both an Ace and a Deux, without any
regard to order : then his Expedlatlon will be gg
= TT — T = nearly.
168021D 7 •'
Exam
T^e Doctrine o/" Chances. 125
Example 2.
Let ^ undertake with a common Die to fling all the Faces in
12 Cafts, then his Expedlation will be found to be
6" — dxij^f"'?**!'^ — 20x3"+ 15x2" — 6xi"fixo'* TO
nearly.
Example 3.
If A with a Die of 36 Faces undertake to fling two given
Faces in 43 Cafts ; or which is the fame thing, if with two
common Dice he undertake in 43 Cafts to fling two Aces at
one time, and two Sixes at another time ; his Expedation will be
JT^ = T^ nearly.
N. B. The parts which compofe thefe Expedlations are eafily ob
tained by the help of a Table of Logarithms.
PROBLEM XL.
To jind in how ma?ty Trials it will be probable that A
with a Die of any given number of Faces fhall throw
any propofed number of them.
Solution.
Let/ ^ I be the number of Faces in the Die, and y the num
ber of Faces which are to be thrown : Divide the Logarithm of
— J by the Logarithm of ^^^ , and the Quotient will ex
prefs the number of Trials requiflte to make it as probable that the
propofed Faces may be thrown as not.
Demon stration.
Suppofe Six to be the number of Faces that are to be thrown^
and n the number of Trials , then by what has been demonftrated
in the preceding Problem the Expedation oi A will be
/>+ ■ ''6x/+ Kv^^''f20>'7^''Kv/>"^''.f6x7^"47^>.
/+.'"
Let
126 Ibi Doctrine ^Chances.
Let it be fuppofed that the Terms, p\ i, p, p — i, p — 2,
&c. are in geometric Progreflion, (which Suppofition will very little
err from the truth, efpecially if the proportion of ;> to i, be not
very fmall.) Let now r be written inftead of /'^ ■■ ' ", and then
the Expeilation of A will be changed into i — ^ — — —
2i L li 1 A 1 , or I L.\ 6 . But this Ex
r* r^ r^ r r
pedtation of A oaght to be made equal to — , fince by Suppo
fition he h as an eq ual Chance to win or lofe, hence will arife the
Equation i ^\ = ^ or '■" = \— , from which it
I— V' 
r
2
^4t^ „ ^
may be concluded that n Log. r, or « x Log. —  — = tog, r7
and cbnfequently that n is equal to the Logarithm of
— Anrl tVtp Came' H«*rr
divided by the Logarithm of — ^ , And the fame dcmonftration
will hold in any other Cafe.
Example i.
To find in how many Trials A may with equal Chance undertake
to throw all the Faces of a common Die.
The Logarithm of {—^ = 09621753 , the Logarithm of
1 — v/ —
2
JAJ or  = 0.07018 12 : wherefore « = ^^^^'^^ = 12 1.
J 5 0.0701812 '
From hence it may be concluded, that in 12 Cads y4 has the worft
of the Lay, and in 13 thebeft of it.
Example 2.
To find in how many Trials A may with equal Chance with a
Die of thirtyfix Fac«s undertake to throw fix determinate Faces ;
or, in how many Trials he may with a pair of common Dice un
dertake to throw all the Doublets.
The Logarithm of ^y being 0.9621753. and tlie Logarithm
I— v/ —
a
qC 2+1. or — being 0.0122345 ; it follows that the number
ef Cafts requifite to that effeft is ^^^^, or 79 nearly.
But
The Doctrine ©/"Chances. 127
Bat If it were the Law of the Play, that the Doublets muft be
thrown in a given order, and that any Doublet happening to be
thrown out of its Turn (hould go for nothing ; then the throwing
of the fix Doublets would be like the throwing of the two Aces
fix times : to produce which, the number of Cafts requifite would
be found by multiplying 35 by 5.668, as appears from the Table
annexed to our v'** Problem ; and confcquently would be about
198.
N. B, The Fradion — j , may be reduced to another form
z
f
viz. —f — > which will facilitate the taking of its Logarithm.
PROBLEM XLI.
Suppojing a regular Prifm having a Faces marked i,
b Faces marked 11, c Faces marked 11 1, d Faces marked
IV, &c. what is the Probability that in a certain number
of throws n, fo7ne of the Faces ?narked i will be thrown^
as alfo fome of the Faces marked 11 f
Solution.
Make a A^b \ c A^ d . Sec. = s, then the Probability required
will be expreffed by s" — s — a\ " J i — a — i?) " ; the Demonflration
_
of which flowing naturally from the Method of arguing employed
in the xxxix'*" Problem, there can be no difficulty about it.
Ex AMPL E.
Suppofe it be required to find the Probability of throwing In S
throws the two Chances v and vi, with a pair of common Dice.
The number of all the Chances upon two Dice being 36, where
of 4 belong to the Chance v, and 5 to the Chance vi ; it fol
lows that s ought to be interpreted by 36, a by 4, and ^ by 5 :
which being done, the Probability required will be expreffed by
36.^
128 The Doctrine <?/'Chances.
^^^Z^fs"^ ^'^*' which by help of a Table of Log, will be
^ , » found thus :
•^ — ^^•^^ 038975. ^ — 0.30176, •— = 0.10012,
but I — 038975 — 0.30176 j 0,10012 = 0.40861, and this
being fubtrafted from Unity, there remains 0.59139, and therefore
the Oddsagainft throwing v and vi in 8 throws are 59139 to 40861,
that is about 1 3 to 9.
But if it be required, that fome of the Faces marked i, fome
of the Faces marked 11, and fome of the Faces marked iii, be thrown,
the Probability of throwing thofe C hances in a given n umber of thro ws
n will be exprefTed by j" — j — g ^" A^ s — a^^ " — j — a — b—c\''
— s S\n i — a— P^"
— s — cV 4J — h^ "
s"
And if the Faces marked iv are farther required to be thrown, the
Probability of it will be exprefTed by
i' — s — a\" A^ i — a — b\'' — s — a — b — A ''f't — ^ — f> — c — ^A"
— J — A » ^ s — a — f\ ' — s — a — b — ^"l '
— s — c\ »  f — ^ —d\ " — s — a — c — (C^"
— 5 — d\''\i — b — c\'' — s — b — c — /\«
Ys — c — d^
Now the order of the preceding Solutions being manifeft, it will
be eafy by bare infpeftlon to continue them as far as there is occafion.
PROBLEM XLIL
If A ohlhes himfelf in a certain number of throws n with
a pair of common Dice not only to throw the Chances
V and VI, hut v before vi ; with this refiriBion^ that if
he happens to throw vi before v, he does not indeed
lofe his wa^er^ but is to proceed as if fiothing had been
done^ fiill deduEling fo many throws as have been vain
from the number of throws which he had at frfi given
kim ; to find the Probability of his winning.
SOLU
1U Doctrine ^Chances. 129
Solution.
Let the number of Chances which there are for throwing v be
called a, the number of Chances for throwing vi, b ; the number
of all the Chances upon two Dice/, and thenumber of throws that
A takes = n. This being fuppofed,
1°. \i A throws v the firll throw, of which the Probability is
y , he has nothing more to do than to throw vi inn — i times,
of which the Probability is i —  — ztt" > ^"^ therefore the Pro
bability of throwing v the firft tim e, and throwing afterwards vi in
n — I times is 7 x i '—^ — ; —
2°, If A miffes v the firft time, and throws it the fecond, of
— a a
7~^7
which the Probability is — ^ x 7 , then he is afterwards to throw
VI in n — 2 times, of which the Probability being i —
O ,n — 2
it follows that the Probability of miffing v the firft time, throwing
it the fecond, and afterwards throwing vi, will be  x y
XI — .
fit — 2
3'. l( A mifles v the two firft times, and throws it the third,
then he is afterwards to throw vi in n — 3 times, the Probability
of all which is •^~^ x j x i — •^~^_^  j and fo on. Now
all this added together conftitutes two geometric Progreffions, the
number of whofe Terms in each is « — i.
Wherefore the Sum of the whole will be
^=1 — 73r" ^ Jn : and
if a and b are equal, then the fecond part will be reduced to
— n — I X rt X s — tf>— ■ X ^ .
J"
Now for the application of this to numbers ; a in the Cafe propofed
is = 4, <^ = 5, j= 36. Let « be = 12, and the Probability re
quired will be found to be 0.44834, which being fubtradted from
unity the remainder will be 0.55166, and therefore the Odds againft
A are 55166 to 44834, that is nearly as 2 1 to 17.
S But
130 l})e Doctrine 0/ Chances.
But if the conditions of the Play were that ^ in 12 times fhould
throw both vand vi, and that vi {hould come up before v, the Odds
againft A would not be fo great; being only 54038 to 45962, that
is nearly as 20 to 17.
It would not be difficult after what we have faid, tho' perhaps a
little laborious, to extend thefe kinds of Solutions to any number of
Chances given.
PROBLEM XLIir.
Any number of Chances bemg given, to find the Proba
■ bility of their being 'produced iit a given order, without
any limitation of the number of ti?72es in which they are
to be produced.
S O L U T \ ON.
1°. Let the Chances be a and b^ and let it be required to produce
them in the order <?, b.
The Probability of producing a before b is ^j , which being
fuppofed to have happened, b muft be produced of neceffity ; and
therefore the Probability of producing the Chances a and b in the
given order a, b, is ^ , ^ .
2°. Let the Chances given be <?, b, c, and let it be required to
produce them in the order in which they are written ; then the Pro
bability of producing a before /^ or c is "^^TT '■> ^^^^h being
fuppofed, the Probability of producing b before c is by the pre
ceding cafe jT^; after which c muft necefiarily be produced,
L
and therefore the Probability of this cafe is ^^r^ x p^ .
3°, Let the Chances be a, b, c, d, and let it be required to pro
duce them in the order in which they are written ; then the Probabi
lity of producing a before all the reft is , ^^^^^ ; which being
fuppofed, the Probability of prodocing b before all the remaining is
^ ^^ J which being fuppofed, the Probability of producing C
before d is — '—; . And therefore the Probability of the whole is
. , f . , X l\ . X ^ ; and in the fame manner may thefe
Theorems be contlnijed in injmitum.
And
iM
The Doctrine ^Chances. ijr
And therefore if it was propofed to find the Probability of throw
ing with a pair of common Dice the Chances iv, v, vi, viii, ix, x
before vii ; let the Chances be called refpefli^'ely a, b, c, d, e, j\ and
m , then the Probability of throwing them in the order they are writ
in will be
'^ e __ /
But as the order in which they may be thrown is not the thhig
particularly required here, except that the Chances m arc to be
thrown the kit ; fo it is plain that there will be as many different
parts like the preceding as the pofition of the 6 Letters o, b, c, d, e,j,
may be varied, which being 720 different ways, it follows, that in
order to have a compleat Solution of this Queftion, there mull be
720 different parts like the preceding to be added together.
However the Chances iv and x, v and ix, vi and vm being re
fpedlively the fame, thofe 720 might be reduced to 90, v/hich be
ing added together, and the Sum multiplied by 8, we fhould have
the Probability required.
Still thofe Operations would be laborious, for which reafon it
will be fufficient to have an approximation, by fuppofing that all
the Chances a, b, c, d, e,f, that is, 3,4, 5, 5, 4, 3 are equal to the
mean Chance 4, which will make it that the Probability required
will be expreffed by
6b sh &i> ■'■/• ib h ■
'  " X ^TT — X ',' ' X —7 — X TT — or
bb+m ^b^m i^h+m S^+w zbrm t^o
24 20 16 12 8 4" . , ? . 2 . 4 . .4 . 4 . 4 . 1024.
^  X X — X X —
30 zi> Z2 18 14 10 I . 3 . 5 . 7 . iT. rj 'JOi^ '
and therefore the Odds againft throwing the Chances iv, v, vi, viir,
IX, X before vii are about 13991 to 1024, or nearly 41 to 3.
But the Solution might be made flill niore exaft, if inftead of
taking 4 for the mean Chance, we find the feveral Probabilities of
throwing all the Chances before vii, and take the fixth part of the
Sum for the mean Probability ; thus becaufe the feveral Probabi
lities of throwing, all the Chances before vii are refpedtively — i
i , i , 5 , li , 1 , the Sum of all which is ^^ , if
we divide the whole by 6, the Quotient will be i^ or
i;f)
990 "49
S 2 nearly,
132 *The Doctrine o/" Chances.
nearly, and this being fuppofed = ■ 7  wherein z reprefents the
mean Chance, we fhall find 2 = 3 — . And therefore the Pro
bability of throwing all the Chances before vii, will be found to be
X ^T— x^T^x ;7r X TTx — ^=: 0.065708 nearly, which
4.14 3S5 320 267 2ob i4r) */ ■' '
being fubtrafled from Unity, the remaining is 0.934292, and there
fore the Odds againfl: throwing all the Chances before vii are 934292
to 65708, that is about 14 — to i.
But if it was farther required not only to throw all the Chances
before vii, but alfo to do it in a certain number of times affigned, the
Problem might eafily be folved by imagining a mean Chance.
PROBLEM XLIV.
//* A, B, C play together on the following conditioju ;
Firji that they Jhall each of them flake i^ Seco?tdly
that A and B Jhall begin the Play ; Thirdly ^ that the
Lofer fhall yield his place to the third Man, which
is conflantly to he ohferved afterwards ; Fourthly, that
the Lofer fhall be fined a certai?! Sum p, which is
to ferve to increafe the common Stock j Laflly, that
he fhall have the whole Sum depofted at firft, and in
creafed by the feveral Fines, who fhall firfl beat the
other two fucceffvvely : ^Tis demanded what is the Ad
vantage or Difadvantage of A and B, whom we fup
pofe to begin the Play.
Solution.
Let BA fignify that B beats A, and AC that A beats C, and fo
let always the firfl Letter denote the Winner, and the fecond the
Lofer.
Let us fuppofe that B beats A the firfl; time ; then let us inquire
what the Probability is that the Set {hall be ended in any number
of Games, and alfo what is the Probability which each Gamefter
has of winning the Set in that given number of Games.
FirJi, If the Set be ended in two Games, B muft ncceflarily be
the winner, for by Hypothelis he wins the firfl time j which may
be expreffed by BA, BC.
Secondly;,
Tlje Doctrine o/"Chances. 133
Secondly, If the Set be ended in three Games, C muft be the
winner, as appears by the following Scheme, viz. BA, CB, CA.
thirdly. If the Set be ended in four Games, A muft be the win
ner, as appears by the Scheme BA, CB, AC, AB,
Fourthly, If the Set be ended in five Games, B muft be the
winner, which is thus expreffed, BA, CB, AC, BA, BC.
Fijthly, If the Set be ended in fix Games, C muft be the win
ner, as appears ftill by the following procefs, thus, BA, CB, AC,
BA, CB, CA.
And this procefs recurring continually in the fame order needs
not be profecuted any farther.
Now the Probability that the firft Scheme fhall take place is
— , in confequence of the Suppofition made that B beats A the
firft time ; it being an equal Chance whether B beat C, or C
beat B.
And the Probability that the fecond Scheme fliall take place is
— : for the Probability of C's beating £ is ^ , and that being
fuppofed, the Probability of his beating A will alfo be — j where
fore the Probability of C's beating B, and then A, will be I x 
I
4 *
And from the fame confideration, the Probability that the third
Scheme {hall take place is ^ : and fo on.
Hence it will be eafy to compofe a Table of the Probabilities which
B, C, A have of winning the Set in any given number of Games ;
and alfo of their Expedtations : which Expectations are the Proba
bilities of winning multiplied by the common Stock depofited at firft„
and increafed fucceffively by the feveral Fines.
Table
»34
The Doctrine o/" Chances.
Table of the Probabilities^ &c.
jB
C
A
o
zX3+2>>
^xs + s/*
3
I — _—
4
8X3+4/
5
.6X3+5/'
A
3, X3+6/.
' .. i
y
^^z^7p.
8
..8 X3 + 8/.
9
TO
256 X3+9^
5..X3+10/.
&c.
Now the feveral Expedations of B, C, A may be fummed up by
the following Lemma.
Lemma.
TT + 77— > &c. in vifimtum^
is equal to ^ + =^ .
Let the Expedations of iJ be divided into two Series, viz.
1 . _L. . _J_ . _JL_ , &c.
2 1 ifi I 128 1^ 1C4 '
4.^^14.+ _!L___li^, &c.
I 2 ' 16 ' iz8 ' 1024 '
The firft Series conftituting a Geometric Progrefllon continually
I 2
decreafing, its Sum by the known Rules will be found to be 7 .
The fecond Series may be reduced to the form of the Series in our
Lemma, and may be thus exprefled
2
*The DocTRiN E o/" Chances. 135
— X— 144 ^1 4t ■\ —r > &c. wherefore dividing
the whole by j , and laying afide the firft term 2, we fliall have
the Series  ] ^ _ ii ^ !J_ ^ &c. which has the fame
b+
form as the Series of the Lemma, and may be compared with it : let
therefore « be made =r: 5, d=. 3, and ^ =j: 8, and the Sum of the
Series will be — I — or ^ ; to this adding; the firft Term 2
which had been laid afide, the new Sum will be ^^i , and that
49
being multiplied by — whereby it had been divided, the product
will be — f, which is the Sum of the fccond Series expreffing the
'Expcftation of B : from whence it may be concluded that all the
Expedlations of B contained in both the abovementioned Series will
be equal to 7 \ p.
And by the help of the fame Lemma, it will be found that all the
Expedlations of C will be equal to — ] — />•
It will be alfo found that all the Expedations of A will be equal to
^ 'V —p
We have hitherto determined the feveral Expedations of the Game
fters upon the Sum by them depofited at firft, and alfo upon the
Fines by which the common Stock is increafed : it now remains to
eftimate the feveral Rifks of their being fined ; that is to fay, the
Sum of the Probabilities of their being fined multiplied by the re
fpedive Values of tlie Fines,
Now after the Suppofition made of A\ being beat the firft time
by which he is obliged to lay down his Fine p, B and C have an
equal Chance of being fined after the fecond Game ; which makes
the Rilk of each to be = — />, as appears by the followin?
Scheme.
BA BA
—  or —
In like manner, it will be found, that C and A have one Chance
in four, for their being fined after the third Game, and confequcntly
that the Rifk of each is ^^, according to the following Scheme,
BA
136
T'he Doctrine (t/'Chances.
BA BA
CB or CB
AC CA
And by the like Procefs, it will be found that the Rifk of E and
C after the fourth Game is ^p.
Hence it will be eafy to compofe the following Table, which
cxprefles the Riiks of each Gamefter.
Table ofRiJks.
B
c
A
J
IP
IP
hp
\p
\p
ij
p
3>
ITP
b^P
i/
xz%P
xz^P
2^bP
z^bP
In the Column belonging to B, if the vacant places were filled
up by interpolating the Terms p, —^p, —j'pi ^c. the Sum of
the Rifks of B would compofe one uninterrupted geometric Pro
greflion, the Sum of whofe Terms would be = /» 5 but the Terms
interpolated conftitute a geometric Progreflion whofe Sum is = 4/ :
wherefore if from p there be fubtraded —p, there will remain —p
for the Sum of the Rifks of B.
In like manner it will be found that the Sum of the Rifks ofC will
be = />.
And
lloe Doctrine (p/'Chances. 137
And the Sum of the Rifks of A, after his being fined the firfl:
time, will be p.
Now if from the feveral Expedtations of the Gamefters, there be
fubtradled each Man's Stake, and alio the Sum of his Rifles, there
will remain the clear Gain or Lofs of each of them.
Wherefore, from the Expedlations of i? = 4 + ~—p
Subtradling jirft his Stake = i
Then the Sum of his Rifles = —p.
There remains the clear Gain of 5 = i  iL /,
, .
b
7
I
+
Likewife from the Expedlations of C
Subtrading Jir/i his Stake
Then the Sum of his Rifles
There remains the clear Gain of C = ^ 4 — *,
7 ' 49^
In like manner, from the Expedations of^= — \~ ^.
Subtrading, Jirjl his Stake = i
Secondly, the Sum of his Rifles = ^p,
Laftly, the Fine p due to'
the Stock by the Lofs of j
the firft Game
'!=
There remains the clear Gain of A
4 ^
7 ig* '
But we had fuppofed, that in the beginning of the Play A was
beaten ; whereas A had the fame Chance to beat B, as B had to beat
him: wherefore dividing the Sum of the Gains of B and A into two
equal parts, each Part will be ^ —p, which confequently
muft be reputed to be the Gain of each of them.
Corollary i.
The Gain of C being \ —p, let that be made r= o
7 49
then p will be found to be = ^ . If therefore the Fine has the
fame proportion to each Man's Stake as 7 has to 6, the Gamefters
play all upon equal terms : But if the Fine bears a lefs proportion
T to
138 The Doctrine 0/ Chances.
to the Stake than 7 to 6, C has the difadvantage : thus fuppofing
/> = I , his Lofs would be ^ , but if it bears a greater proportion
to the Stake than 7 to 6, C has the advantage.
CoROLL ARY 2.
If the common Stake were conftant, that is if there were no Fines,
then the Probabilities of winning would be proportional to the Ex
pedlations ; wherefore fuppofing /> = o, the Expedtations after the
firft Game would be — , — ^  ■, whereof the firft belongs to
7 7 ' 7 °
By the fecond to C, and the third to A : and therefore dividing the
Sum of the Probabilities belonging to B and A into two equal parts,
it will follow that the Probabilities of winning would be proportional
to the numbers 5, 4, 5, and therefore it is five to two before the
Play begins that either A or B win the Set, or five to four that one of
them that (hall be fixed upon wins it.
Corollary 3.
Hence likewife if three Gamefters A, B, C, are engaged in a
Pou/e, and have not time to play it out ; but agree to divide (S) the
Sum of the Stake and Fines, in proportion to their refpeftive Chances :
 S will be the Share of B, whom we fuppofe to have got one Game j
 S that of C, who fhould next come in ; and — S the Share of A
who was laft beat. For, as they agree to give over playing, all con
fideration of the fubfequcnt Fines p is now fet afide, and the Cafe
comes to that of the fiift part of Corol. 2.
Or the fame thing may be fhortly demonftrated as follows.
Put 5=1, and the Share o^ A =^ z. Then B playing with C
has an equal Chance for the whole Stake S, and for being reduced
to the prefent Expedlation of A; that is, B's Expedation is y".
C has an equal chance for o, and for JS's prefent Expedlation; that is,
C's Expedation is = — — — . But the Sum of the
three Expedations z \  X 1 {• z \ xi\z = Sz=.ii or z
\  z f= —z)=z— : and z = ~ , which is As Share ; thofe
'4 I 4 / ± 7
of B and C being ^ X I +  > and xi4"""iOr~ ^"^ f > ^^'
fpedively.
PRO*
'the Doctrine <?/" Chances.
39
PROBLEM XLV.
If four Gameflers play on the conditions of the foregoing
Problem^ and he be to he reputed the Winner who
beats the other three fucceffively., what is the Advantage
of A and B whom wefuppofe to begin the Play f
Solution.
Let BA denote as in the preceding Problem that B beats A, and
AC that A beats C ; and univerfally, let the firft Letter always de
note the Winner, and the fecond the Lofer.
Let it be alfo fuppofed that B beats A the firft time : then let
it be inquired what is the Probability that the Play fhall be ended
in any number of Games j as alfo what is the Probability which
each Gamefter has of winning the Set in that given number of
Games.
Firft, If the Set be ended in three Games, B muft neceflarily be
the Winner ; fince by hypothefis he beats A the firft Game, which is
exprefled as follows :
BA
2
3
BC
BD
Secondly, If the Set be ended in four Games, C muft be the winner ;
as it thus appears.
BA
2
3
4
CB
CD
CA
Thirdly, If the Set be ended in five Games, D will be the Win
ner ; for which he has two Chances, as it appears by the following
Scheme.
BA BA
BC
I
2
3
4
5
CB
DC or DB
DA DA
DB DC
T 2
Fourthly,
CB
CB
BC
DC
CD
DB
AD
AC
AD
AB
AB
AC
AC
AD
AB
1 40 T'he Doctrine o/" Chances.
Fourthly^ If the Set be ended in fix Games, A will be the Win
ner } and he has three Chances for it, which are thus coUedted.
1 BA BA BA
2
3
4
5
6
Fifthly, If the Set be ended in feven Games, then B will have
three Chances to be the Winner, and C will have two, thus ;
BA BA BA BA BA
CB CB CB BC BC
DC DC CD DB DB
AD DA AC AD DA
BA BD BA CA CD
BC BC BD CB CB
BD BA BC CD CA
Sixthly, If the Set be divided in eight Games, then D will
have two Chances to be the Winner, C will have three, and B alfb
three, thus ;
I BA BA BA BA BA BA BA BA
CB CB CB CB CB BC BC BC
DC DC DC CD CD DB DB DB
AD AD DA AC AC AD AD DA
BA AB BD BA AB CA AC CD
CB CA CB DB DA BC BA BC
CD CD CA DC DC BD BD BA
CA CB CD DA DB BA BC BD
3
4
5
6
7
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Let now the Letters by which the Winners are denoted be written
in order, prefixing to them the numbers which exprefs their feveral
Chances for winning j in this manner.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2cc.
iB
iC
2D
3A
3B42C
3C42DW3B
3DI2AI3C I3D + 2A
3A + 2B + 3D 4 3A + 2B + 2C + 3A + 3D
ThcQ
'The Doctrine ^Chances. 141
Then carrying this Table a littler farther, and examining the Forma
tion of thefe Letters, it will appear ; Firjl^ that the Letter B is
always found fo many times in any Rank, as the Letter A is found
in the two preceding Ranks : Secondly, that C is found fo many times
in any Rank as B is found in the preceding Rank, and D in the Rank
before that. Thirdly, that D is found fo many times in any Rank,
as C is found in the preceding, and B in the Rank before that :
And, Fourthly, that A is found fo many times in any Rank as D is
found in the preceding Rank, and C in the Rank before that.
From all which it may be concluded, that the Probability which
the Gamefter B has of winning the Set in any number of Games, is
^ of the Probability which A has of winning it one Game fooner,
together with ^ of the Probability which A has of winning it
two Games fooner.
The Probability which C has of winning the Set in any given
number of Games, is  of the Probability which B has of win
ning it one Game fooner, together with  of the Probability which
4
D has of winning it two Games fooner.
The Probability which D has of winning the Set in any num
ber of Gam.es is  the Probability which C has of winning it one
Game fooner, and alfo  of the Probability which B has of win
ning it two Games fooner.
The Probability which A has of winning the Set in any num
ber of Games is  of the Probability which D has of winning it one
Game fooner, and alfo  of the Probability which C has of winning
it two Games fooner.
Thefe things being obferved, it will be eafy to compofe a Table
of the Probabilities which B, C, D, A have of winning the Set in
any number of Games, as alfo of their Expedations, which will be
as follows :
I42
The Doctrine o/" Chances.
B
C \ D \
y^
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
Vlll
IX
X
&c.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
lO
1 1
12
&C
7x4+3/
I — ___
JX4+ 4p
* i 1
,6x4+ 5P
^X4 4 6/
■ix4l 7^
.Z8X4+ 8/
' v,n — :' '
64 ^4 + 7/
"128x44 8/
Tj6'X4f 9/
1
1 .z8^4+ Sp
6 —
' .50^44 9p
256^44 9/
5,,x44io>
5.,X4flO/
] 5..>^4 + 'cp
'.02+x44ii/._^,^_^X4 + ii/.
.0^^4411/
.04^^4412/
>^o,sX4 + 12/> ^^^3X4 + 12/.
48^4412/
The Terms whereof each Column of this Table is compofed,
being not eafily fummable by any of the known Methods, it will
be convenient, in order to find their Sums to ufe the following
Let B' 1 B'' + B " 4 B"" \ B^ f B^', &c. rcprefent the refpec
tive Probabilities which B has of winning the Set, in any number
of Games anfwering to 3,4, 5, 6, 7, 8, &c. and let the Sum of
thefe Probabilities in infinitum be fuppofed =_y.
In the fame manner, let C [ C" jC'' + C^ 4 C*' + C^', &c.
reprefent the Probabilities which C has of winning, which fuppofe
Let the Probabilities which D has of winning be reprcfented by
ly _j_ D" + D'" Y D'''f D^ 1 D^', &c. which fuppofe = v.
Laftly, Let the Probabilities which j4 has of winning be reprc
fented by A' 1 A" + A'" + A'^+ A^4 A^'^ &c. which fuppofe
Now from the Obfervations fet down before in the Table of Pro
babilities, it will follow, that
B'
T^tf Doctrine ^ Chances. 143
B'=B'
B" = W
B'"=A" + A'
B^=1.A'^+ lA'*
' 4
B'''=A''4iA'*'
2 4
&c.
From which Scheme we may deduce the Equation following,
y = — 4 —x: for the Sum of the Terms in the firft Column
is equal to the Sum of the Terms in the other two. But the Sum
of the Terms in the firft Column h ■=:: y by Hypothefis; where
fore y ought to be made equal to the Sum of the Terms in the other
two Columns.
In order to find the Sum of the Terms of the fecond Column, I
argue thus,
A' + A'' + A''''f A'^+ ^y + A^', &c. r= ;c by Hytoth.
Theref. A" + A'"+ A'^+ AT + AT', &c. = x — A'
and A" J.A'"+A"'+A^+ A^&c. = x— A'
2 '2 '2 '2 '2 2 2
Then adding B' ■\ B" on both Sides of the laft Equation, we
(hall have
B' + B" +7A" +^A'"4 iA'^+^ A^f jA^ &c.
= Lx— 4A'4B'+B".
But A' = o, B' = ~ , B" = o, as appears from the Table :
wherefore the Sum of the Terms of the fecond Column is = ar
2
The Sum of the Terms of the third Column is  x by Hypo
thefis ; and confequently the Sum of the Terms in the fecond and
third Columns is = 4 "^ + ~" . ^om whence it follows that the
4 4
Equation yz=z — \lx had been rightly determined.
^ And
144 ^^ Doctrine o/" Chances.
And by a reafoning like the preceding, we fliall find z r=.^y
 "y, and alfo v=. ^z \ y, and laftly x^=—'v \ —z.
Now thefe four Equations being refolved, it will be found that
B' I B" 4 B'" \ B'^+ B^ + B^ &c. = ;' = ^
C' 4 C" \ C" + C'^ + C^+ e', &c. = 2; = ^
D' I D" y D"^4 D'^ + D^ 4 D^, &c. = u == ^
A' + A" + A"' + A'^ + A'' \ A""', Scc. = x= ^
Hitherto we have determined the Probabilities of winning: but
in order to find the feveral Expectations of the Gamefters, each
Term of the Series expreffing thofe Probabilities is to be multiplied
by the refpedive Terms of the following Series,
4 1 3/>, 4 + 4/. 4 + 5/. 4 + ^Z". 4 + Z/*. 4 + §/». &c.
The firft part of each produ6l being no more than a Multiplica
tion by 4, the Sums of all the firft parts of thofe Produdls are only
the Sums of the Probabilities multiplied by 4 ; and confequently are
224 144. 128 100 r n. 1
4v, 4^, 4'u. 4x, or 7^, ^^, 7;^, y^, refpedbvely.
But to find the Sums of the other parts,
Let 3B> f 4B> + jB''/. + 6B">, &c. be = pt.
2Cp \4C'p i 5C"p\ 6C7, &c. be =ps.
2D'p\ 4.D"p\ 5D'"p\ 6D'7, &c. be =/r.
3A'/.4 4A''/> 1 5A''p\ 6A''7>, &c. be — /^.
Now fince 3B''=3B'
4B" = 4B''
sB'"=={a" +^A'
6B'^= A'" 1 A"
8B^'=A^ 4 A'''
2 ' 4
it follows that t=^ [ ^q\x> for 1°, the firfl Column Is
= / by Hypcthejis.
2°, 3 A' \ 4A'' 1 5A''''+ 6A'^ 4 7A^, &c. = qhy Hypothefi.
3°, A' + A'' + A'"+ A'^ f A*, &c. has been found = ^
= to the value of x. Where
Ihe Doctrine ^Chances. 145
Wherefore adding thefe two Equations together, we fhall have
4A' + 5A" + 6 A"' + 7A'^ f 8A^ &:c. = ^ + x,
or fA' + ^A'^ + 4a'"+ \M^\ a. &c. = ^? + 7:^.
But A' =: o, therefore there remains ftill
LA'/ + 4 A'" 4 lA'+ iA, &c. r= ^^ + 7^.
Now the Terms of this lad Series, together with 3B' + 46",
compofe the fecond Column : but 36'=— and 4B" = o, as appears
from the Table j confequently the Sum of the Terms of the fecond
Column is = ^ + 7? 4" 7^
By the fame Method of proceeding, it will be found that the Sum
of the Terms of the third Column is = — y A —^x.
From whence it follows, that^r=— A^ —qA^ —x ■\
o'^^ = 7 + f? + ^
And by the fame way of reafoning, we (hall find
i = 7? + I;'  ^r + ju, and alfo
r—'s^^z\^t\ \y, and laftly
I I I t I I I
?=7'' + 7'" + 7'+7^
But for avoiding confufion, it will be proper to reftore the va
lues of *•, y, Zj V, which being done, the Equations will fland as
follows.
4 n^ 4J I 149 "' •• 596 I 4'
5= 1 f —r.
'49 ' 2 ' 4
149 ' 2 '4
2 J49 ' 2 » 4
Now the foregoing Equations being folved, it will be found that
22201 ' ZZlOl ' 22201 ' " 22201 *
From which we may conclude that the feveral Expedations of
By C, D, ^, &c. are refpedively,
U Fir/I,
146 The Doctrine o/" Chances.
Firfi, 4X^ + ^^> Secondly, 4X^+ ^^.
Thirdly, 4 X ^ + ^t : Fourthly, 4 X ^ + ^ff^p.
The Expedations of the Gamefters being found, it will be ne
ceflary to find the Rilks of their being fined, or otherwife what Sum
each of them ought juftly to give to have their Fines infured. In or
der to which, let us form fo many Schemes as are fufficient to find
the Law of their Procefs.
And Fir/l, we may obferve, that upon the Suppofition of B beat
ing A the firfl Game, in confequence of which A is to be fined, B
and C have one Chance each for being fined the fecond Game, as it
thus appears :
1 I BA BA
2 I CB BC
Secondly, that C has one Chance in four for being fined the third
Game, B one Chance likewife, and D two ; according to the fol
lowing Scheme.
I
2
3
BA BA BA BA
CB CB BC BC
DC CD DB BD
thirdly, that D has two Chances in eight for being fined the
fourth Game, that A has three, and C one according to the follow
ing Scheme.
I
2
3
4
BA BA BA BA BA BA
CB CB CB CB BC BC
DC DC CD CD DB DB
AD DA AC CA AD DA
A^. B. The two Combinations BA, BC, BD, AB, and BA, BC,
BD, BA, are omitted in this Scheme as being fuperfluous ; their
difpofition fhewing that the Set mufl have been ended in three Games,
and confequently not affeding the Gamefters as to the Probability of
their being fined the fourth Game ; yet the number of all the Chances
muft be reckoned as being eight ; fince the Probability of any one
Circumflance is but g .
Thefe Schemes being continued, it will eafily be perceived that
the circumftances under which the Gameflers find themfelves, in
refpcdl of their Rifks of being fined, fland related to one another
in the fame manner as did their Probabilities of winning; from
which
iTje Doctrine o/" Chances. 147
which confideration a Table of the Ri/ks may eafily be compofed as
follows.
A Table ofRiJks.
2
B
c
D
A
/
J
,f
//
3
hP
7t
7f
///
4
if
\P
\P
IV
5
^P
i:P
i:P
hP
V
6
6
fJ
,^P
ilP
VI
7
^/
'p
8
64/
64/
Vll
8
^/
iz^P
XZSP
ri?
Vlll
&c.
9
'7 ,
'' P
256^
Wherefore fuppofing B  B" + B'^', &c, C + C^  C", &c.
D/ 4. D" f D'", &c. A' + A"l A'". &c. toreprefent the feveral
Probabilities ; and fuppofing that the feveral Sums of thefe Probabi
lities are refpedlively y, x, z, v, we fhall have the following Equa
tions
X = V \ z. Which Equations being folved we (hall have^ =
> •''  —
224
'75
Xr=
Let now every one of thofe Fractions be multiplied by/', and
the Produas ^/., ^, ^p, ^p will exprefs the refpedive
Rifles of B, C, D, j4, or the Sums they might juftly give to have
their Fines infured.
But if from the feveral Expe6latIons of the Gamefters there be fub
tradted, Fir/l, the Sums by them depofited in the beginning of the
Play, and Secondly, the Rifles of their Fines, there will remain the
clear Gain or Lofs of each. Wherefore
U 2
From
148 T'he Doctrine ij/'Chances.
From the Expedlations of 5 = ^^ 4 ii^d.
_ 14.9 22201 •'
Subtradling his own Stake = i
And alfo the Sum of his Rifks r^ ^^6.
' "j f
There remains his clear Gain = 21 1 ili2_ >,
140 ' 22201 r*
From the Expeftations of C= ^^ I — ^^^*.
^ 149 ' 22201 f
Subtracting his own Stake = i
And alfo the Sum of his Rifks = "TT^P'
'49
There remains his clear Gain = T^"^ TH^f
128 , 37600
From the Expedlations of D = ~^ j j^p.
Subtradling his own Stake = i
And alfo the Sum of his Rifks := ~T7^P'
There remains his clear Gain = ~ [ ^^/.
From the Expedations of ^ = 7^ A^ 22101 P
Subtracting his own Stake = i
And alfo the Sum of his Rifks =
Laflly, the Fine due to the t
Stock by the Lofs of the i =
firfl Game J
There remains his clear Gain= rV"^ llzo? P'
The foregoing Calculation being made upon the Suppolition of
JB beating A in the beginning of the Play, which Suppofition nei
ther affcfts C nor D, it follows thai the Sum of the Gains between
B and A ought to be divided equally ; then their feveral Gains will
ftand as follows :
Gain
The Doctrine ©/"Chances. 149
:jj^
If 1^ ^^^^Z*. which is the Gain oi A ox B be made = o >
149 2. 201 ^ '
then p will be found r= i^ll j from which it follows, that if
' 2700
each Man's Stake be to the Fine in the proportion of 2700 to 1937,
then A and B are in this cafe neither Winners nor Lofers ; but C wins
— ^ which D lofes.
225
And in the like manner may be found what the proportion be
tween the Stake and the Fine ought to be, to make C or D play
without advantage or difadvantagc ; and alfo what this proportion
ought to be, to make them play with any advantage or difadvantagc
given.
Corollary i.
A Spedlator S might at firft, in confideration of the Sum 4 j yp
paid him in hand, undertake to furnidi the four Gamefters with.
Stakes, and pay all their Fines.
Corollary 2.
If the Stock is confiderably increafed, and the Gamefters agree
either to pay no more Fines, or to give over playing, then
1°. If we fuppofe B to have got the laft Game, by beating out
Ay and call the Stock Unity , the Expedations, or Shares, belong
ing to B, C, D, A, refpeaively, will be ^ , f^ , ^ ,.
'49
2°. If B has got 2 Games, by beating D and A fucceflively, the
Shares of B, C, D, A, are ^, ^, ^, ^ • For 5
has now an equal Chance for the whole Stake, or for the loweft
Chance of the former Cafe : that is, his Expeftation is worth
I
150 The Doctrine of Chances.
— X 1 H ^^^ = — ^ . C has an equal Chance for o, and for
2 ' 149 149 i '
~ — ; that isj his Expedation is —^ , and in the fame way the
Numerators of the Expedations of £) and ^are found.
Corollary 3.
If the proportion of Skill between the Gamefters be given, then
their Gain or Lofs may be determined by the Method ufed in this
and the preceding I'roblem.
Corollary 4.
If there be never fo many Gamefters playing on the conditions of
this Problem, and the proportion of Skill between them all be fup
poied to be equal, then the Probabilities of winning or of being fined
may be determined as follows.
Let W, ly, D', E^, F^, A^, denote the Probabilities which B, C,
D, Ey F, A have of winning the Set, or of being fined in any
number of Games ; and let the Probabilities of winning or of being
fined in any number of Games lefs^by one than the preceding, be de
noted by F, C', D^', E^, F, A^': and fo onj then I fay that
B' — 7A" '1 tA"' + ?A'^ + T^A*
C" = ,B^ f ^F^ + JE^ + T^D^
5^ = 7C^ + 7B^ + T^ + ^^
Now the Law of thefe relations being vifible, it will be eafy to ex
tend it to any other number of Gamefters.
Corollary 5.
If there be feveral Series fo related to one another, that each Term
of one Series may have a certain given proportion to fome one affigned
Term in each of the other Series, and that the order of thefe propor
tions be conftant and uniform, then will all thofe Series be exaflly
fummable.
Remark
7^^ Doctrine of Chances.
15^
Number
of Games
won by
B
K— 5
^\c D E F
b c d e f
«4
« i
n — 2
« — I
11
I
II
III
IV
V
B C D E F A
b ' c' d' e' f a'
b" c" d' e" f a"
b" c'" d" e"' f" a"
b" c" S"" e" f a""
I
Remark.
As the Application of the Dodrine contained in thefe Solutions
and Corollaries may appear difficult when the Gamefters are many,
and when it is required to put an end to the play by a fair diftribu
tion of the money in the Foide ; which I look upon as the moft ufeful
Queftion concerning this Game : 1 fhall explain this Subjeft a little
more particularly.
I. Let us then Suppofe any number of Gamefters, « ( i (as,
in our Scheme, 6) and having written down fo many Letters
as there are Gamefters
in the Order they are
to fucceed one another,
place under them their
refpecflive fmall Letters,
to denote the Probabilities
which the feveral Game
fters have of winning the
Poide, immediately after
their Order of Succeffion
is fixt, and before the play is begun. Where note that the Letter
b fignihes ambiguoufly the Expectation oi A or of 5; and this Cafe
being particular, not to occur again in the fame Potde, may be fepa
rated from the others by a line.
We fhall always fuppofc B to be the Winner of the firft Game ;
and that A takes the lowed place in the fecond Row of Capitals.
Under thefe repeat « — i Rows of the fmall Letters which, with the
fmall flrokes or dots affixed to them mark the Expedtations of the
feveral Ganaeflers, when any one Gamefter has got as many Games as
is the Number of dots, or that which is marked in Roman Charadlers
to the right of the Row. For it is to be obferved, that, after the
firfl: Game, the fmall Letters thus marked do not, unlefs by accident,
fignify the Expeftations of the particular Gamefters at firfl denoted
by their Capitals ; but the Expedtations which belong to the Rank
and Column where any Letter flands. For Example, b' docs not
denote the Expedtations of him who was fuppofed to get the firft
Game, unlefs perhaps he has got two more fucceffivelyj but indefi
nitely, thofe of whatever Gamefler has got 3 Games following.
And the other Letters of the fame Row, as c'", d'''^ e"' , fignify the
fimultancous Expedtations of the three Gameflers that follow him in
the Order of playing.
2. This
152 T'he Doctrine o/" Chances.
2. This preparation being made, it will be obvious in what manner
the Expedlations are varied by the Event of every Game ; and how
they are always reducible to known Numbers.
For if we fuppofe B, the Gamefter who is in Play, to have got 3
Games, for inftance, and to want two more of the Poide ; then his
prefent Expeftation being b''^ ^ if he wins the next Game which he is
to play with C, the Confequence will be ; 1°. His own Expedlations
will be changed into b^^ ; having now got 4 Games. 2°. All the
other Expectations in the fame Row, will likewife be transferred to
the next inferior (IV.) but marked each by the preceding Letter of
the Alphabet : that is, d'" becomes c^, t"'" becomes d"^, &c. ex
cepting only c'", the Expedation of him who loft the Game, which
is thereby reduced to the loweft Expectation a"'. And if B had al
ready gained {n — 1^=) 4 Games, and confequently wanted but one;
if he gains this, all the Expeftations c'^, d^'\ e'^, &c. will vanifh
together, while b^^ becomes ^=1, the Exponent of Certainty,
But if B lofes his Game with C, all the Expectations, of what
ever Rank, are transferred to the Rank I, and their Ratios are reftored
as when the firft Game was won : only the Letters are changed into
the next preceding. As W^ becomes a\ c'" becomes b'^ d'" becomes
£•', and fo on.
'^. Now there being fuppofed an equal Chance of B's winning
and lofing a Game ; any Expectation of his, as when he has got 3
Games, will be thus expreffcd ; b'" = . "^" ■ ; in which, fubfti
tuting for b''' its equal in our Example ■■ '"'"'' , we (hall have b'" ^=
Itiilll . The fmie way, b'^ =. i^ = ^^ ; and b' =
''^'J" . In general; when the number of Games that B wants of
gaining the Poule is /;/, then fliall — j— ^ — — be the value
of his Expectations.
4. The other Expectations are collected nearly in the fame man
ner. As c"' = "*"'  , in which fubftituting for a"" its equal (in
our example) ^JtZ , we have c'" = ^^^±^ — :^ b' ^ ^ f.
The fame way, c" = ^^ b' \ ^ f ] ~ e': and f'= ^ b' ■\ ^f }
■L e' 4 \ d' ; the number of Terms added to the Games won be
ing always = », and the Letter a' always omitted.
From
'The Doctrine ^Chances. 153
From all which it appears, that the Expe(5lation of a Gamefter,
in any State of the Play, is exprelled by the Expeclations d, b' , c',
&c. after one Game is won : and that thefe, therefore, are firft to be
computed.
5. In order to which, I fay, that the Letters b, c, d, c, &c. ex
prefllng, as above, the Chances of the Gamefters, B, C, D, E, &:c.
immediately after their Order of playing is fixt by lot, or otherwife ;
thefe Chances are in the geometrical ProgrcfTion of i f 2 " to 2 ".
For either of the Gamefters (as yl) who play the firfl: Game, has i
out of 2" Chances of beating all his Adverfaries in one Round. And
therefore he may, in confideration of the Sum — ^ x b\c\(i{e
2
give up his expedations arifing from the Probability of that Event,
and take the loweft place with the Expedlation e ; the Gamefter
Cfucceeding to his place, D to that of C; and fo on. But B hav
ing, on the fcore of Priority, the fame demand upon yf, as A has
upon B ; that is, neither having any demand upon the other, the
Term —^ x ^ is to be cancelled ; and the Value of A's place, with
2
refpeft to the other Gamefters, reduced to — — x c i — X d \~
z" 2
&c. And now each of the Gamefters C, D, E. &c. being raifed
to the next higher Expedlation b, c, d, Sec, for which he has paid
— ^ of his former Expeftation j it follows that b ^=i i \ — x r,
2" 2
c = I  — X dy &c. and that, before the play is begun, every
Expeftation is to the next below it as i  7 to i, orasiJ2''
to 2". Which coincides with Theor. I. of Mr. Nicolas BernoidU
in Phil, Tranf N. 341.
Thus if the Gamefters are 3, {A) B, C ; their firft Expeiflatlons
2re (5) 5, 4, with the common Denominator 14. If they are 4,
{A)B, Cyh, their Expeftations are (81) 81, 72, 64, with the Deno
minator 298. If there are 5 Gamefters, their Expedations are (17^)
17^ 17" X 16, 17 X 16% 163, with their Sum for a Denominator ; that
is, (4913), 4913, 4624, 4352, 4096, with the Denominator 22898.
And the like for any number of Gamefters.
6, It is plain likewife that the Expedations of all the Gamefters,
excepting A and £, remain the fame after one Game is plaid, as
they were at firftj c' = c, d'=.d, e'^=ie, &c. becaufe the conteil
X in
15+ TT^& Doctrine <?/" Chances.
in the firft Game concerns"^ and B alone; its Event making no
alteration in the Expeflations of the others : but only railing B's
firrt expedation, which was b^ to the Value b' , and diminilhing
the equal Expedtation of A by the fame quantity : fo that a} \
b' = 2b.
And therefore, to find all the ExpecT:ations after the firft Game
is played, we have now only to compute the firft and lafl: of that
Rank, b' and a'.
But it was found already that if ;« reprefents the number of Games
tliat the laft Winner B wants to gain the Poule, his Expectations in that
Circumftance will be equal to ■■ ^ ~'^'' .. . From which, putting
2
m ^=zn — I , which is the Cafe when B has got one Game, and the
Expedation b' ; and fubftituting for b' its equal 2b — a' y we fhall get
a'
As when there are 3 Gameflers, n=2, b=.— and a' =
20
~~' =^ = ^. Andb^ = 2ba'=^^^±.
3 42 7 14 14 7
If there are 4 Gameflers, «:^3, (^= ;jj and therefore ^'=
agi)
298 ^7 298 '^ 7 298 149 149
149 '49
If there are 5 Gameflers, 72=4, b =z "7^^ J whence a'=z
, 4013 _i ;«:'° _I_ — _lZii_ i^':?
^ ^ 22898 ' ^ IS 22898 ^15 22898 11449 •
AnAb'=2ba' = ^ L!il_^_^. SothattheEx
11449 11 449 "449
pedlations of the Gameflers, B having got one Game, will ftand
thus :
B C D E A
b^ c' d' e' a'.
3056, 2312, 2176, 2048, 1857; thefe numbers exprefTing the
Ratios of the Expedations ; and with the Denominator 11449 fub
fcribed, their abfolute quantity ; or the Shares of the whole Stake
due to each Gamefter, if they were to give over playing.
7. And thus the Probabilities which the feveral Gameflers have
of gaining the Poule may in all Cafes be computed, and difpofed into
Tables. But the 6 following, will, 'tis thought, be more than fuffi
cient for any Cafe that happens in play. Table
The Doctrine ^Chances.
Table I. For a Touk of Th^ee'
155
Games
won
o
A
B
d
Denom. 5+514=14.
I
B\
4!
C
7
A
Denom. 7.
I,
II
Tab. II. For a Foule of Four.
Denom. 298.
BS
81
C
72
B
87
C
36
28
D
64
32
18
25
16
Denom,
149.
Tab. III. For a Poule oi' Five.
A
B
o 491^
I.
11
III.
Tab. W. For a Poule of Six
I.
II
III
IV.
B
3056
4255
6653
c
4624
D
4352
E
4096
Denom,
22898.
c
2312
2176
E
2048
. '1666
1088
A
•
. 1857
1568
1024
2040
1528
1920
•
. 1 156
Denom. 11449.
1185921
c
149984
D
1115136
E
108 1 ^44
F
1048576
Denom.
6766882.
B
682976
863007
1223069
C
574992
540144
472560
'943193I 34H88
D
E
540672
\
458240: 42253^
2874961 278784
507904: 481602
409728
A
524288 50294
46700S
3973^2
270^36
262144
DO
CO
o
a
J
Q
X 2
One
156 TTdc Doctrine <?/* Chances.
One Example will fiiew the Ufe of the Tables : Suppofe 5 Game
fters engaged in a Pouky with this condition, that if it is not ended
when a certain number of Games are played, they fhall give over, and
divide the Money in proportion to the Chances they fliall then have
of winning the Poule. That number of Games being played, fuppofe
the Poule rifen to 30 Guineas, and that a Gamefter (5) has got two
Games : ^i. how the 30 Guineas are to be fliared ?
Divide 3 1 — /, into Shares proportional to the numbers 4255,
2040, &c. (in Tab, III.) which ftand in the Row of Games won II.
and thofe Shares will be as follow: 31 4 ^ X '''''' = the Share of
/. s. d.
5 II 14 2
And the fame way thofe of C, 6cc. will be C 5 12 3
jD 5 5 8
£ 4 11 8
^463
L. 31 10 o
Note, the pricked Line which is drawn in each of the Tables fe
parates the Chances of the Gamefters who are neceJJ'arily to come
into the play before the Poule is won, from the Chances of thofe
who may poffibly not come in again ; which lie below that line.
And, fetting afide the Column B, all the Chances in any Row
above the line are in the continued Ra tio of i  2" to 2". As in
Tab. III. d"=—x c", on 920 = I ^ X 2040.
The fame is true of the Terms of any Row that lie both below the
line. But if one lies above and the other below it, their Relation is
different, and is to be found by Art. 3. of this Remark,
It remains to compute the Profit and Lofs upon the Fines p : as
follows.
I. The prefent Expe<flations of a Gamefter who is entering, or to
enter, into play, that he ftiall be the Winner, are made up of his
feveral prefent Expedations, upon the Events of his coming in once^
twice, tbrice, &c. as is manifeft. And as, immediately after the
Order of playing is fixt, it was fhewn that thofe total Expedtations
are in the geometrical Progreffion of i  2"to 2", the number of
Gamefters being n \ i ^ io, m any other State of the Peuky their
Ratio is always given.
But
The Doctrine of Chances.. 157
But every time that a Gamefter enters, his Chance of winning in
that Turn, is to his Chance of paying a Fine^ as i to 2" — i : and
therefore, componendo^ the Sum of a Gamefter's feveral ExpecSlations
oi "winning, is to the Sum of his feveral Rifks of paying a Fiyie, in
the fame Ratio ; the whole Stake, and ahb each Fine p, being
put =: I . And the whole Rifis of the feveral Gamefters are in the
fame Ratios as their ExpeBations.
Thus in the Cafe of Three Gamefters, whofe Expedlations are
^ , ^ , ^ , their Chances of paying the Fine/> will be the lame
Fradtions multiplied into 3 (^= 2" — ■ i) ; that is, they will be ^ ,
'4
14.' '4 *
And the firft Expedations of Fcz/r Gameflers being 81, 81, 72*
64, to the Denominator 298 ; their Chances of being Fined will
be the fame Numerators multiplied into 7 (=2" — 1), that is,
<;67 ?6' t;o.t 4aS ^ „. ,
1^ ' liT ' l^T ' 7^ ' refpcdively.
Hence again it appears, that the Total of the Fines, or the Sum
for which they may be furniflied throughout the Peule, is 2"^^^i
"Xp. For the Sum of the Expedations upon the Stake i, is i j and
thefe are to the Number of Fines as i to 2" — i.
2. Suppofc now that one of the firft Players of Tbree, as ^, is
beat out, and his Fine paid, as mufl always neceflarily happen ;
and thence, the Expedlations of getting the Pou/e reduced to
c B J
   : then the Rifles of C and ^ will be 4 ,  , refpedlively :
whofe Sum — taken from 2 (=2" — 2) leaves ^ for the Fines
ofB.
In like manner, the Expedlations of Four Gamefters, after one
Game is won, being 56, 36, 32, 25, with the Denominator 149 ;
the Numerators of the RiiTcs of the Three lafl Gamefters C, D, /J, will
be 36, 32, 25, multiplied by 7 {■= 2" — i) to the fame Denominator;
and their Sum taken from the Fines to be paid after one Game is won,
which are 6 = 2" — 2, leaves for the Rifks of B, ^^ : thofe of C
' '49 '
D, A, being ^, ~^ , — , refpedively.
3. If 5 has got more than one Game, the Sums for which a
Spedlator R may furnilh all the fubfequent Fines^ will be found as
follows.
Let
158 Ihe Doctrine c/ Chances.
Let the Number of Finei which R rifks to pay, when B has
got I, 2, 3, 4, &c. Games, be x, y, z, v, ficc. refpedlively ; then
. r r.)r —x; or y = x — 2, — ■ — =zy =x — 2 ; or z^=
X — 2^12. And the lame way v=^x — z^\z'^{2, &c. ; in an
obvious Progreffion.
Becaufe when B has got i Game, there is an equal Chance of his
winning or lofing the next ; in the former Cafe, R pays the Fine
1 Xp for C, and comes to have the Rifk j; but if C wins, R pays
1 Xp for B, and his Rifk x is the fame as before : and fo of the
reft. So that the number of pieces p for which R may engaa;e to
furnifli the fubfequent Fines, when B has got 2, 3,4, &c. Games,
is had />y the continual Suit ration of 2 a?7d its Powers from 2" — 2.
As in a Poule of four, when B has got 2 Games, the Sum of the
Rifks is 6 — 2 =1= 4. In a Poule of five, ,v = 2 • — 2 = 14, y^= 1 2,
;?; = 8, "u = o.
And from thefe numbers fubtrading the Rifiisof the other G;"me
flers C, D, E, &c. found as above, there will remain the Rilks of
B the Gamefter who continues in play.
4. The Expectations of the feveral Gameflers upon the Fines
may likewife be determined by an obvious, but more troubiefome,
Operation.
Under the Capitals, B C D E A, write their fmall
Letters thus : L b' c' d' e' of
II. b" c' d" e" a"
III. b'" c'" d" e'" a"'
IV. b' o o 00 Signifying, refpeftively,
the Number of Fines which a Gamefter, winning the Pou/e, may
expedl to find in it, B having already got fo many Games as the Dots
affixed to the Letter : and to thefe Letters prefix their fractional Co
efficients taken from the Tables of Probabilities. Then, by the law
cf the Game, there will be formed a Series of Equations determining
the Expedations fought.
As in the Cafe of 3 Gamefters, write,
B C A
I. ±1,1 Ic' la' , ,
^ ' " l>and the Equations! 2°. ^c'—  x  X ^' ^ 1 \ o
lUxb"=.2 o o \ ^ ^— —
(3°.l^'=lx^X^'+i+o
Which
I°.f^'=^X2+^X^'4I
The Doctrine ^Chances.
IJ9
Which being reduced give £' (= 1/5') = — , O (= ^c') =
~, A' {^= ^a')=z^. From which fubtradling their refpedlive
Rifks ; for B, ^ J for C, 11 ; and for ^, I^ (= 1 + i, his Fines,
and the Fine already paid in), remain the Gains A — ^— . \ — — — .
' 49 > I 49 >
— , multiplied into p.
If it is a Poule of four, the Expectations on the Fines will ftand
thus: B C D A
149 '49 '49
I.
87
II. ^h"
'49 M9
l^c" ^d" —a"
' 49 1 : 9
III. I X ^"' = 30 o o and fetting afide the
common Denominator 149, the Equations will be;
1°. 56^'=^ X25.ZK1 ioyA' 5°. 28c"^x56 ^4T+o /. e. c"=l?'+z
2° 3 6f ' ^ 7 >^ 5^ ^J 116^ 6°. 'W^f '+2
3°. yd'^~x{(K^\\2^c" JO, ^ a"=d'\2
4". 2 5^?'=ix 3 2 .^TT+iW 8°. ~/5"=  X 3 HilZfT:
Whence will be found
81  ^
^'.= ,and(^ b'=)B'='^
149 V 149 ;•" 22201
149
2
1075 —
<^r
IIT5
r>r=
149
22
'34'
jand
2j,__ 37600
Z2Z0I
"49
~ i and
tf=
^4
6i8
^"^^;and5"^:
J49 22201
i;^?oo
■49 2Z20I \ / .49 ,anaL ^^^
/,, '373J .
"d= i;andZ)"=2iZl6
149
22201
r//_ '473
22201
dli2i,:.6i
'49 22201
And the like Computations maybe made for the fuperior Pouksy.
the Compofition of the Equations to be reduced being regular and
obvious.
P R (X
i6o llje Doctrine (t/* Chances.
PROBLEM XLVI.
Of Hazard.
To fi?id at Hazard the Advantage of the Setter tipQ7i all
Suppofitioits of Main atid Chance.
SoLU T I ON.
Let the whole Money played for be confidered as a common
Stake, upon which both the Cafter and the Setter have their feveral
Expedlations ; then let thofe Expedations be determined in the fol
lowing manner.
Firjl, Let it be fuppofed that the Main is vii : then if the Chance
of the Cafter be vi or viii, it is plain that the Setter having 6 Chan
ces to win, and 5 to lofe, his Expedlation will be — of the Stake :
but there being 10 Chances out of 36 for the Chance to be vi, or
VIII, it follows, that the Expectation of the Setter refulting from the
Probability of the Chance being vi or viii, will be — multiplied
by— ^ or — divided by 36.
Secondly, If the Main being vii, the Chance (hould happen to be
V or IX, the Expectation of the Setter would be 4^ divided by
36
'Thirdly, If the Main being vii, the Chance fliould happen to be
]v or X, it follows that the Expectation of the Setter would be 4
divided by 36.
Fourthly, If the Main being vii, the Cafter fliould happen to
throw II, III, or XI r , then the Setter would neceflarily win, by the
Law of the Game; but there being 4 Chances in 36 for. throwing
II 1 1 1, or X II, it follows that before the Chance of the Cafter is
thrown, the Expectation of the Setter refulting from the Probability
of the Cafter's Chance being 11, ii i, or xi i, will be 4 divided by
36.
Lajily, If the Main being vi i, the Cafter fliould happen to throw
VI I, or XI, the Setter lofe s his Expectation.
From the Solution of the foregoing particular Cafes it follows,
that the Main being vi i, the Expectation of the Setter will be ex
prefled
Ihe Doctrine*?/ Chances. i6i
12. q if_ __ ± + 1
preffed by the following Quantities, viz. — ^ ! L
which may be reduced to ^^ ; now this fradlion being fubtradt
ed from Unity, to which the whole Stake is fuppofed equal, there
will remain the Expedation of the Cafter, viz. ^ii .
. . . . . +95
But the Probabilities of winning being always proportional to the
Expedlations, on Suppofition of the Stake being fixt, it follows that
the Probabilities of winning for the Setter and Cafter are refpcdively
proportional to the two numbers 251 and 244, which properly de
note the Odds of winning.
Now if we fuppofe each Stake to be i, or the whole Stake to
be 2, the Gain of the Setter will be expreffed by the fraction —  ,
it being the difference of the numbers expreffing the Odds, divided
by their Sum, which fuppofing each Stake to be a Guinea of 2 1
Shillings will be about 'if — 2 —f.
By the fame Method of Procefs, it will be found that the Main
being vi or viii, the Gain of the Setter will be 7777 which is about
ed. — 2 r/in a Guinea.
It will be alfo found that the Main being v or ix, the Gain of
the Setter will be ^^ ■ , which is about 3'^ — 3 'f'v!\2. Guinea.
Corollary i.
If each particular Gain made by the Setter, in the Cafe of any
Main, be refpedlively multiplied by the number of Chances which
there are for that Main to come up, and the Sum of the Produdts
be divided by the number of all thofe Chances, the Quotient will
exprefs the Gain of the Setter before a Main is thrown : from whence
it follows that the Gain of the Setter, if he be refolved to fet upon
the firft: Main that may happen to be thrown, is to be eftimated by
7728" ~^ z^i\' > ^^ whole to be divided by 24, which be
495
ing reduced will be _iZ_ , or about 4/ — 2 7/ in a Guinea.
Corollary 2.
The Probability of no Main, is to the Probability of a Main as
109 4" 2 to 109 — 2, or as 1 1 1 to 107.
Y CoRo
i62 Th^ Doctrine <?/* Chances.
Corollary 3.
If it be agreed between the Carter and Setter, that the Main fliall
always be vii, and it be farther agreed, that the next Chance hap
pening to be Amesace, the Carter fliall lofe but half his Stake, then
the Carter's Lofs is only  ^'^^ of his Stake, that is about —/in a
Guinea.
Corollary 4.
The Main being vi or viii, and the Carter has j of his money
returned in cafe he throws Amesace, what is his Lofs ? And if the
Main being v or ix, and he has — of his Money returned in cafe
he throws Amesace, what is his Lofs ? In anfwer to the firrt, the
Gain of the Setter or Lofs of the Carter is r .
37
In anfwer to the fecond the Lofs of the Carter would be but
782 ^
29
Corollary 5.
If it be made a rtanding Rule, that whatever the Main may hap
pen to be, if the Carter throws Amesace immediately after the
Main, or in other words, if the Chance be Amesace, the Carter
fliall only lofe  of his own Stake, then the Play will be brought
fo near an Equality, that it will hardly be dirtinguifhable from it ;
the Gain of the Carter being upon the whole but ^— of his own
Stake, or ^ of a farthing in a Guinea.
The Demonrtration of this is eafily deduced from what we have
faid before ^'/z. that the Lofs of the Carter is ~^ ; now let us
confider what part of his own Stake fhould be returned him in cafe
he throws Amesace next after the Main ; Let z be that part, but
the Probability of throwing Amesace next after the Main is ^ ,
therefore, the real Value of what is returned him is ~z,
and fince the Play is fuppofed to be reduced to an Equality, then
what is returned him murt equal his Lofs ; for which reafon, we
have the Equation ~ = ^, or;.=:^ which being very
near
7!5<? Doctrine <?/"Chances. 163
near  , it follows that  of his own Stake ought to be returned
him.
Or thus ; if the Carter has returned him — when that happens, he
lofes nothing ; but there being but i Chance in 36 for that Cafe
to happen ; the real Value of what is returned is but ^"^ ^ , and in
the fame manner if — is returned, the real Value is ,^ . : and i'o,
the Difference — ^ — — r= — ^r is the Gain of the
3X36 50x30 t.048
Carter.
PROBLEM XLVII.
To fold at Hazard the Gain of the Box for any number
oj Games divijible by 3.
Solution.
Let a and b refpedlively reprefent the Chances for winning a Main
■or for lofing it, which is ufually called a Main and no Mai?i ; then,
1°, It is very vifiblethat when the four laft Mains are ^^fi^, other
wife that when a Main has been lort, if the three following Mains
are won fucceffively, then the Box muft be paid.
2°, That the lart 7 Mains being baaaaaa^ there is alfo a Box to
be paid.
3°, That the laft 10 Mains being baaaaaaaaa, the Box is to be
paid, and fo on.
Now the Probability of the 4 laft Mains being baaa is
and confequently, if the number of Mains thrown from the beginning
is reprefented by ;;, the Gain of the Box upon this account will be
But to obviate a difficulty which may perhaps arife concerning the
foregoing Expreflion which one would naturally think muft be
— ^ — , it muft be remembered that the Termination baaa be
longs to 4 Games at leaft, and that therefore the three firft Games
are to be excluded from this Cafe, tho' they ftiall be taken notice of
afterwards.
Y 2 Again
164 T'he. Doctrine ©/'Chances.
Again the Probability of the 7 laft Mains terminating thus baaaaaa^
will be — 1 ■ , but this Cafe does not belong to the 6 firft Mains,
axoV
therefore the Gain of the Box upon this account will be — f=r" '
and 10 on.
And therefore the firft part of the Expedation of the Box is ex
preffed by the Series
of which the number of Terms is "~^ .
3
The fecond part of the Expedlation of the Box arifes from all
the Mains being won fucceflively without any interruption of a no
Main, and this belongs particularly to the three firft Mains, as well
as to all thofe which are divilible by 3, and therefore the fecond
part of the Expedation of the Box will be expreffed by the Series
=^— 4 1., 1 L, 4 1. , &c. of which the number of
Terms is — .
3
Thofe who will think it worth their while to fum up thefe Series,
may without much difficulty do it, if they pleafe to confult my Mif
cellanea, wherein fuch forts of Series, and others more compound, are
largely treated of.
In the mean time, I fhall here give the Refult of what they may
fee there demonftrated.
U the firft Series be diftinguifhed into two others, the firft pofitive,
the other negative, we fliall now have three Series, the Sums of which
will be, fuppofing ;  ■=. r,
nh r< — »!
X
a+i ^ ,_^!
1 » 1 ' —
2» 3^ ,, 3 ^3
, »+3
the fum of all which will be reduced to the Expreffion ~ —
14 49
_i — i — , when a and ^ are in a Ratio of Equality.
49x2"
Corollary i.
If n be an infinite number, the Gain of the Box will be univer
fally expreffed by ^^^ x ■ _— ^j  — j but when a and if are in a.
Ratio of Equality by ^ . C o r o
The Doctrine ^Chances. 165
Corollary 2.
The Gain of the Box being fiich as has been determined for an
infinite number of Mains, it follows that, one with another, the
Gain of the Box for one lingle Main ought to be eftimated by
— 7— ■ X — rp, , or T~ if ^ anti ^ are equal.
Corollary 3.
And confequ entlv, it fo llows that in fo many Mains as are ex
preffed by l±iil±^^iz£_ , or in 14 Mains if a and b are equal, the
Expedation of the Box is i, calling i whatever is ftipulated to
belong to the Box, which ufually is 1 HalfGuinea.
Coroll ar y 4,
Now fuppofing that a and 1^ are refpedively as 107 to iii, a
Box is payed one with another in about 14.7 Mains.
After 1 had folved the foregoing Problem, which is about 12 years
ago, 1 fpoke of my Solution to Mr. Henry Stuart Stevens, but with
out communicating to him the manner of it : As he is a Gentleman
who, befides other uncommon Qualifications, has a particular Sagacity
in reducing intricate Queftions to iimple ones, he brought me, a
few days after, his Inveftigation of the Conclufion fet down in my
third Corollary ; and as I have had occafion to cite him before, in
another Work, fo I here renew with pleafure the Expreffion of the
Efteem which I have for his extraordinary Talents : Now his Invef
tigation was as follows.
Let a and b refpedively reprefent the number of Chances for a;
Main and no Main ; Let alfo i be the Sum which the Box muft re
ceive upon Suppofition of three Mains being won fucceffively ; now
the Probability of winning a Main is ^^ , and the Probability of
winning three Mains is ~=^pr j a"<^ therefore the Boxkeeper
might without advantage or difadvantage to himfelf receive from the
Cafter at a certainty, the Sum ■  "' . x i, which would be an Equi
valent for the uncertain fum J , payable after three Mains.
Lat
i66 Hhe Doctrine o/" Chances.
Let it therefore be agreed between them, that the Carter fliall pay but
the Sum ■  "—., X i for his three Mains; now let us fee what con
fideration the Boxkeeper gives to the Carter in return of that Sum.
1°, he allows him one Main fure, 2°, he allows him a fecond Main
conditionally, which is provided he wins the firft, of which the
Probability being ^rf > it follows that the Box allows him only,
if one may fay fo, the portion ^^ of a fecond Main, and for the
fame reafon the portion JZ^ of a third Main, and therefore the
Box allows in all to the Carter i + ^ } :^^ Mains, or
^aajr^oh^hb ^^^ therefore if for the Sum received =^r X i,
there be the allowance of """" ;^ ^ Mains, how many are
a + I)]'
allowed for the Sum i ? and the Term required will be
3«. + 3.^ +£^x7Tr ^j. T^ _ j>H . 3nd therefore in fo ma
ny Mains as are denoted by the foregoing Expreflion, the Box gets the
Sum I ; which Expreflion is reduced to 14 if ^z and b are equal.
PROBLEM XLVIII.
Of Raffling.
If any number of Gamejlers A, B, C, D, &'c, play at
Raffles, what is the Probability that the Jirji of them
having thrown his Chance, and before the other Chalices
are throw?i^ wins the Money of the Play ^
Solution.
In order to folve this Problem, it is necelTary to have a Table ready
compofed of all the Chances which there are in three Raffles, which
Table is the following.
Ji
*The Doctrine o/" Chances.
167
A Table of all the Chances which are in three Rajfki.
\^fwr\^^
Chances to
Chances to
Equality of
jruinis*
winorlofe.
winorlofe.
Chance.
LTV "1
nx
884735
I
LIII
X
884726
I
9
LII
XI
884681
10
45
LI
XII
884534
ss
H7
L
XIII
884165
202
369
XLIX
XIV
883400
57^
765
XLVIII
XV
881954
1336
1446
XLVII
XVI
879470
2782
2484
XL VI
XVII
^ISS^"^
5266
3969
XLV
XVIII
869632
Q235
586Q
XLIV
XIX
861 199
15104
8433
XLIII
:> or <
XX
849706
23537
"493
XLII
XXI
834679
35030
15027
XLI
XXII
815392
50057
19287
XL
XXIII
791506
69344
23886
XXXIX
XXIV
762838
93230
28668
XXXVIII
XXV
728971
121898
33867
XXXVII
XXVI
690100
^SSl^S
38871
XXXVI
XXVII
646929
194636
43171
XXXV
XXVIII
599472
237807
47457
XXXIV
XXIX
548865
285264
50607
XXXIII
XXX
496314
335871
52551
XXXII
LXXXI
442368
388422
53946
The Sum of all the numbers expreffing the Equality of Chance
being 442368, if that Sum be doubled it will make 884736, which
is equal to the Cube of 96.
The firft Column contains any number of Points which A may be
fuppofed to have thrown in three Raffles.
The fecond Column contains the number of Chances which A ha&
for winning, if his Points be above xxxi, or the number of Chances
he has forlofing, if his Points be either xxxi or below it.
The third Column contains the number of Chances which A has
for lofing, if his Points be above xxxi, or for winning, if they be either
XXXI or below it.
The
1 68 The Doctrine <?/" Chances.
The fourth Column, which is the principal, and out of which the
other two are formed, contains the number of Chances whereby any
jiuniber of Points from ix to liv can be produced in three Raffles;
and confequently contains the number of Chances which any of the
Gamellers 5, C, Z), Sec. may have for coming to an equality of
Chance with A.
The Conftruftion of the fourth Column depends chiefly on the
number of Chances which there are for producing one fingle Raffle,
whereof xviii
or III
have I Chance
xvn
or IV
have 3 Chances
XVI
or V
have 6 Chances
XV
or v[
have 4 Chances
XIV
or VI I
have 9 Chances
XIII
or VIII
: have 9 Chances
XII
or IX
have 7 Chances
XI
or X
have 9 Chances
Which number of Chances being duly combined, will afford all the
Chances of three Raffles.
But it will be convenient to illuftrate this by one Inftance ; let it
therefore be required to find the number of Chances for producing
X 1 1 Points in three Raffles.
1°, It may plainly be perceived that thofe Points may be produ
ced by the following fingle Raffles 1 1 1, 1 1 t, vi, or 1 1 1, iv, v, or
IV, IV, IV; then confidering the firft Cafe, and knowing from the
Table of fingle Raffles, that the Raffles i 1 1, in, vi, have refpec
tively I, 1,4 Chances to come up, it follows from the Dodlrine of
Combinations that thofe three numbers ought to be multiplied toge
ther, which in the prefent Cafe makes the produdl to be barely 4,
but as the difpofition, in, in, vi, may be varied twice; viz. by
III, VI, III, and VI, in, iii, which will make in all three dif
pofitions, it follows that the number 4, which exprefl^es the Chances
of one difpofition, ought to be multiplied by 3, which being done, the
produdt 1 2 muft be fet apart.
2°, The Difpofition ni, iv, v, has for its Chances the pro
du6t of the numbers i, 3, 6, which makes 18; but this being
capable of 6 permutations, the number 18 ought to be multiplied
by 6, which being done, the produdl 108 muft likewife be fet
apart.
3°, The Difpofition iv, iv, iv has for its Chances the produd of
3, 3, 3, which makes 27 ; but this not being capable of any varia
tion, we barely write 27, which muft be fet apart.
4%
The Doctrine 0/ Chances. 169
4% Adding together thofe numbers that were feverally fet apart,
the Sum will be found to be 147, which therefore expreffes the num
ber of Chances for producing xii Points in three Raffles: and in
the fame manner may all the other numbers belonging to the Table
of three Raffles be calculated.
This being laid down, let us fuppofe that A has thrown the Points
XL in three Raffles, that there are four Gameflers befides himfelf,
and that under that circumflance of Ji^ it be required to find the Pro
bability of his beating the other four.
Let tn univerfally reprefent the number of Chances which any
other Gamefler has of coming to an equality with A^ which number
of Chances in this particular Cafe is 23886; Let a univerfally reprefent
the number of Chances which A has for beating any one of his
Adverfaries, which number of Chances is found in the Table to
be 791506; Let/ reprefent the number of all the Chances that
there are in three different Raffles, which number is the Cube of
96, by reafon that there are no more than 96 fingle Raffles in three
Dice, and therefore /' conflantly flands for the number 884736;
Let p univerfally reprefent the number of Gameflers in all, which in
this Cafe will be 5 ; then the Probability which A has of beating the
other four will be j—i — ; and therefore if each of the
mpYp
Gameflers flake i, the Expedation of 4 upon the whole Stake/,
will be expreffed by :; ; and confequently his Gain, or
what he might clearly get from his Adverfaries by an equitable
compofition with them for the Value of his Chance, will be
m/
— I.
Now the Logarithm oia f ;« = 5.9 1 13665, Log. a =5.8984542,
Log m ■=■ 4.3781 434, Log. /^ 5.9468136 ; and therefore Log.
a\m P = or Log. a \ niV = 29.5568375, Log. «? =29 4922710,
Log. ;///?—' =28.1653978; from which Logarithms it will be conve
nient to rejedl the leafl index 28, and treat thofe Logarithms as if they
were refpedively 1.5568325, 1.4922710, 0.1653978: but the num
bers belonging to the two hrfl are 36,044 and 3 J. 065, whole diffe
rence is 4.979 from the Logarithm of which, viz. 0.697 142 i, ^^
the Log. 0.1653978 be fubtradled, there will remain the Log.
°53 ^7433' of which the correfponding number being 3.402, it fol
lows that the Gain of ^ ought to be eflimated by 2.402.
Z Demon
lyo Ihe Doctrine 6/" Chances.
Demon strat i on.
1°, When A has thrown his Chance, the Probability of i3's hav
ing a worfe Chance will be j ; wherefore the Probability which
A has of beating all his Adverfaries whofe number \% p — i, will be
/—
2°, The Probability which B has in particular of coming to an
Equality with ^ is y , which being fuppofed, the Probability
which A has of beating the. reft of his Adverfaries whofe number it
p — 2j is ■ " ■ ; which being again fuppofed, the Probability
which A now has of beating B, with whom he muft renew the
Play, is — ) wherefore the Probability of the happening of all thefe
I p—2
J2 , —ma
things Is r= y X ^—^ X z=.—^^ — : but becaufe C, or D or
E, &c. might as well have come to an equality with A 2iS B him
felf, it follows that the preceding Fradlion ought to be multiplied
by * — I, which will make it, that the Probability which A
has of beating all his Adverfaries except one, who comes to an
equality with him, and then of his beating him afterwards, will be
p—\ p—i
— ma
3°, The Probability which both B and C have of coming to an
equality with A is ^" ; which being fuppofed, the Probability
which A has of beating the reft of his Adverfaries whofe number is
p — o^ is " ; which being again fuppofed, the Probability
which A now has of beating B and C with whom he muft re
new the Play, (every one of them being now obliged to throw
for a new Chance) Is 4 ; wherefore the Probability of the hap
pening of all thefe things will be = ^ ^ ^_ x — ==:
—mma
^ — : but the number of the Adverfaries of ./^ being /> — j,
and
The Doctrine (9/"Chances. 171
and the different Variations which that number can undergo by elec
tions made two and two being — j — x — , as appears from the
Dodtrine of Combinations, it follows that the Probability which any
two, and no more, of the Adyerfaries of A have of coming to an
Equality with him, that ^4 fhall beat all the reft, and that he fhall
beat afterwards thofe two that were come to an Equality, is
X — mma
y^'
• and fo of the reft.
From hence it follows that the Probability which ^ has of beit
ing all his Adverfaries, will be expreffed by the following Series,
P — ' I ?~' " — 2 , ^— I p—z p — 3 ■ fi— 1 p—2 p — 0, I *_
/'
the Terms of whofe Numerator are continued till fuch time as their
number be =/); now to thofe who underftand how to raife a Bino
mial to a Power given, by means of a Series, it will plainly appear
that the foregoing Expreffion is equivalent to this other '^ '"
which confequently denotes the Probability required.
PROBLEM XLIX.
The fame things being given as in the preceding Problem^
to find how many Gamefiers there ought to be in all^ to
make the Chance of A, after he has thrown the Point
XL, to be the moft advantageous that is pojfible.
Solution.
It is very eafily perceived that the more Adverfaries A has, the
more his Probability of winning will decreafe ; but he has a Com
penfation, which is, that if he beats them all, his Gain will be
greater than if he had had fewer Competitors : for which reafon,
there being a balance between the Gain that he may make on
one fide, and the decreafe of the Probability of winning on the
other, there is a certain number of Gamefters, which till it be at
tained, the Gain will be more prevalent than the decreafe of Proba
bility ; but which being exceeded, the decreafe of Probability will
fHevail over the Gain ; fb that what was advantage, till a certain time,
may gradually turn to equality, and even to difadvantage. This
Problem is therefore propofed in order to determine thofe Circum
ilances. Z 2 Let
172 The Doctrine ^Chances.
Let Log./ — Log. a be made=^, letalfo Log./ — Log. a\m be
made =J, which being done, then the number of Gamefters re
quifite to make the Advantage the greateft poflible will be exprefled
bv the fradlion , "^J^ "^ fo that fuppofing as in the pre
ceding Problem that ^2 = 791506, ;«= 23886, and confequently
rt  W3=8i5392, as alfo /= 884736, and Log. / = 5.9468136
Log.^ = 5.8984542,Log.;;z=4.378i434Log.fl + w=:5.9ii366^,
then ^ will be = 0.0483594, and / will be= o. 3 5447 1 . Theref.
Log. g ■ — ■ Log./':= o. 1 3490 14, and Log. a \ m — Log. ^=0.01 ^ 9 1 23
and therefore the number of Gamefters will be /igTii^'" == ^ °4
nearly, which fliews that the number required will be about ten or
eleven.
As the Demonftration of this laft Operation depends upon prin
ciples that are a little too remote from the Dodlrine of Chances, I
have thought fit to omit it in this place , however if the Reader will
be pleafed to confult my Mifcellanea Analytica, therein he will find it,
pag. 223 and 224.
It is proper to obferve, that the method of Solution of this laft
Problem, as well as of the preceding, may be applied to an infinite
variety of other Problems , which may happen to be fo much eafier
than thefe, as they may not require Tables of Chances ready calcu
lated.
PROBLEM L.
Of Wh 1 S K.
If four Gameflers play at TVhiJk, to find the Odds that
any two of the Partners, that are pitched upon, have
not the four Hojiours,
Solution.
F/r/?, Suppofe thofe two Partners to have the Deal, and the laft
Card which is turned up to be an Honour,
From the Suppofition of thefe two Cafes, we are only to find
what Probability the Dealers have of taking three fet Cards in twenty
five, out of a Stock containing fiftyone. To refolve this the fhorteft
way, recourfe muft be had to the Theorem given in the Remark be
longing to our xx^"" Problem, in which making the Quantities ;/,
iT^e Doctrine <?/^ Chances. 17;^
c,d,p, a, refpedlively equal to the numbers 51, 25, 26, 3, 3, the
Probability required will be found to be ^^iii^ii^ or ■ ^" .
Secondly, If the Card which is turned up be not an Honour, then
we are to find what Probability the Dealers have of taking four given
Cards in twentyfive out of a Stock containing fifty one ; which by
the aforefaid Theorem will be found to be """'^''"''" ' or
5 I X50X49X4S
4998
But the Probability of taking the four Honours being to be efti
mated before the lafl Card is turned up ; and there being fixteen
Chances in fiftytwo, or four in thirteen for an Honour to turn up,
and nine in thirteen againft it, it follows that the Probability of the
firft Cafe ought to be multiplied by 4 ; that the fradion exprefling
the Probability of the fecond ought to be multiplied by 9 ; and that
the Sum of thofe Produdts ought to be divided by 13, which being
done, the Quotient ^q or ^ nearly, will exprefs the Probability
required.
And by the fame Method of proceeding it will be found, that
the Probability which the two Eldeft have of taking four Honours is
—^^l^ , that the Probability which the Dealers have of taking three
Honours is ^^ , and that the Probability which the Eldeft have of
taking three Honours is ^, ^ . Moreover, that the Probability that
there are no Honours on either fide will be .,^^ .
Hence it may be concluded, 1°, that it is 27 to 2 nearly that the
Dealers have not the four Honours.
That it is 23 to I nearly that the Eldeft have not the four
Honours.
That it is 8 to I nearly that neither one fide nor the other have
the four Honours.
That is 1 3 to 7 nearly that the two Dealers do not reckon Honours.
That it is 20 to 7 nearly that the two Eldeft do not reckon
Honours.
'And that it is 25 to 16 nearly that either one fide or the other do
reckon Honours, or that the Honours are not equally divided.
Corollary i.
From what we have faid, it will not be difficult tofolve this Cafe
at Whifk ; viz. which fide has the bcft, of thole who have viii
of tiie Game, or of thofe who at the fame time have ix ? In
J74 ^^ Doctrine <?/ Chances.
In order to which it will be neceflary to premife the following
Principle.
1°, That there is but i Chance in 8 192 to get vi i by Triks.
2°, That there are 13 Chances in 8192 to get vi.
3°, That there are 78 Chances in 8 192 to get v.
4°, That ihere are 286 Chances in 8192 to get iv.
5°, That there are 715 Chances in 8192 to get iii.
6°, That there are 1287 Chances in 8192 to get 11.
7°, That there are 17 16 Chances in 8192 to get i.
All this will appear evident to thofe who can raife the Binomial
^z 4 ^ to its thirteenth power.
But it mufl: carefully be obferved that the foregoing Chances ex
prefs the Probability of getting fo many Points by Triks, and nei
ther more nor lefs.
For if it was required, for Inftance, to aflign the Probability of
getting one or more by Triks, it is plain that ihe Numerator of the
Fradtion expreffing that Probability would be the Sum of all the
Chances which have been written, viz. 4096, and confequently that
this Probability would be —^ or — .
' 8192 2
2°, That the Probability of getting two or more by Triks would be
or
8192 ' jrgj
3°, That the Probability of getting three or more by Triks would
8192
4°, That the Probability of getting iv or more by Triks would
5°, That the Probability of getting v or more by Triks would be
9z
8192
6°, That the Probability of getting vi or more would be
14.
8192 ■
7°, That the Probability of getting v 1 1 would be g— • .
This being laid down, I proceed thus.
1°, If thofe that have v 1 1 1 of the Game are Dealers, their Proba
bility of getting 1 1 by Honours is j^ : for the Dealers will get
1 1 by Honours if they have either 3 of the 4 Honours, or all the
4 Honours, but the Probability of taking three Honours is ^^ ,
and the Probability they have of taking the four Honours is —^ ,
and the Sum of this is ^j^ . The
The Doctrine i?/" Chances. 175
The Probability which they have of getting them by Triks is
z?8o ii!.o
or
8:92 .< > 96
And therefore adding thefe two Probabilities together, the Sum
Will be ,,,3^.6 •
Now fubtradling from this, the Probability of both circum
ilances happening together, '•oiz.  ^g^;'"  the remainder will be
32/i ; and this exprefles their Expedlation upon the common
Stake which we fuppofe to be r=: i .
But they have a farther Expedlation, which is that of getting one
fin2:le Game by Triks, which is ^^^ or ■ ''"'^ , and their Proba
bility of not getting by Honours is ^^— (= i ^7^ ) ; and there
fore their Probability of getting one fingle Game by Triks indepen
dently from Honours is  ^,'^,q°V ; but then if this happen they will be
but equal with their Adverfaries, and therefore this Chance entitles
them to no more than half of the common Stake ; therefore taking
the half of the foregoing fradion, it will be g^^^^^j and therefore
the whole Expedation of the Dealers is ^^^2^2^±^^— liiiMi.
r bb23936 0823936
whence there remains for thofe who have ix of the Game ,^"^^'"'^' ;
68230^6 »
which will make that the Odds for the vi 1 1 againft the ix will be
4141345 to 2b82i9i, which is about 3 to 2, or fomething more,
17/2;, r; to II.
2*, But if thofe who have v 11 1 of the Game are Eldeft, then their
Probability of having three of the four Honours is —^ , and their
Probability of having the four Honours is 73"— , and therefore their
Probability of getting their two Games by Honours is , ,: , ^r^Q __
■ '^' ^' ■ . 7 he Probability of getting them by Triks is as before ^^^ ,
now adding thefe two Probabilities tog'ether, the Sura will be
•^i~r^ , from which fubtrading, the Probability of both circumftan
O ..L .  ...Ml • •■.X~'<x9,
ces happening together, viz. ' '"'"'^^ , there vi'ill remain
^ ^ DO '■■ .1930 c.i?.39,; *
and this expreffes the Expedation arifing from the Profped of their
winning at once either by Honours or by Triks.
But
176 The Doctrine (j/' Chances.
But their Expectation arifing from the Profped of getting one fin
gle Game, and then being upon an equal foot with their Ad veifaries,
found the fame way as it was in the Suppofition of their being Dealers,
is "ll ' ^"^^  . For the Probability of tlic Elded taking 4 Honours is
y^ , and of their taking 3 Honours, ^ ; whofe Sum taken
from Unity, leaves ^^ , for the Probability of their not getting by
Honours ; and this multiplied by ~^ the Probability of their get
ting one Game by Triks, gives ^7^^; the half of which is
' blilllb ' '^"'^ therefore their Expedtation upon the whole is
'^hflj^lp^ = "Slifr ' ^"^ confequently there remains for the
IX, ^——^t and therefore the Odds of the viii againft the ix
are now 3769795 to 3054141, which is nearly as g^ to yy.
From whence it follows that without confidering whether the
VIII are Dealers or Eldeft, there is one time with another the Odds
of fomewhat lefs than 7 to 5; and very nearly that of 25 to 18.
Corollary 2.
It is a Queftion likewife belonging to this Game, what the Proba
bility is that a Player has a given number of Trumps dealt him : par
ticularly, it has been often taken as an equal Wager that the Dealer
has at leaft 4 Trumps.
Now altho' the Solution of all fuch Queflions is included in our
xx'*" Problem ; yet as this Game is much In ufe, I have, for the
Reader's eafe, computed the following Tables ; fhewing, for the
Dealer as well as the other Gamefters, what the Probability is
of taking precifely any afligned number of Trumps in one deal.
And thence by a continual addition of the numbers, or of fuch
part of them as is neceflary, it is ealily found what the Probability is
of taking at leaji that number.
Chances
The Doctrine <?/" Chances.
77
Chances of the Dealer to have
befides the Card turned up.
Trumps
Chances of any other Game
fler to have precifely.
3910797436
201 12672528
41959196136
46621329040
I.
II.
III.
8122425444
46929569232
1 10619698904
139863987120
30454255260
121817^2104
3014663652
IV.
V.
VI.
104897990340
48726808416
14211985788
455999544
Tab. I. 40714245
VII.
VIII.
25*^3997416
284999715 Tab. II.
2010580
IX.
1.8095220
48906
468
I
X,
XI.
XII.
603174
8892
39
Sum — 158753389900 is the
476260169700 .. Sum, is]
commom Denominator ; be
the common Denominator ;
ing the Combinations of j 2
being the Combinations of
Cards in 51.
13 in iji.
By the help of thefe Tables feveral ufeful Queftions may be re
folved ; as 1°. If it is afked, what is the Probability that the Dealer
has precifely III Trumps, befides the Trump Card ? The Anfwer,
by T^ab. I. is
4662
J and the Probability of his having fome other
But if the Qucftion had been, What
\\2\\
15675
'5875
number of Trumps is
is the Probability that fome other Gamefter, the eldeft hand for
inflance, has precifely IV Trumps? The anfwer, by Tab. II. is
104SQS
476263
2°. To find the Chance of the Dealer's not having fewer than IV
Trumps: add his Chances to take o, I, II, which a^e 39108,
201127, 4i9i;92; and their Sum 659827 taken from the Deno
minator 1587534, and the Remainder made its Numerator, the
Probability of the Dealer having IV or more Trumps will be  '"^ °l
a little above — r . The Wager therefore that the Dealer
32Q
12
has not IV Trumps is fo far from equal, that whoever lays it throws
away above ^ of his Stake.
A a
Bi;t
178 n^e Doctrine o/" Chances.
But if the Wager is that the Dealer has not V Trumps, there
466213 (the Chances of his having III. befides the Trump Card)
is to be added to the Chances for o, I, II ; which will make the
Chance of him who lays this Wager to be nearly iil; and that of his
45 S
Adverfary .
455
And hence, if Wagers are laid that the Dealer has not IV
Trumps, and has not V Trumps, alternately; the advantage of
him who lays in this manner will be nearly 1 1 — per Cent, of his
Stakes.
3°. To find the Odds of laying that the eldeft hand has at leaft
III, and at leaft IV Trumps, alternately, the Numerator of the one
Expeftation is (by T^^. II.) 31 501 119, and of the other 175 14720,
to the Denominator 47626017 ; whence the advantage of the Bet will
be — ^ , or 3 per Cent, nearly.
Again, if it is laid that the Trumps in the Dealer's hand fhall be either
I, II, 111 or VI; the difadvantage of this Bet will be only 15 A 4"/, or
about 7 , per Cent.
In like manner, the Odds of any propofed Bet of this kind may be
computed : And from the Numbers in the Tables, and their Combi
nations, different Bets may be found which (hall approach to the Ratio
of Equality; or if they differ from it, other Bets may be affigned,
which, repeated a certain Number of Times, fhall ballance that
difference.
4", And if the Bet includes any other Condition befides the num
ber of Trumps, fuch as the Quality of one or more of them ; then
proper R.egard is to be had to that reftridlion.
Let the Wager be that the Eldefl has IV Trumps dealt him ; and
that two of them fhall be the Ace and King. The Probability of
his having IV Trumps precifely is, by Tab II. ~^ : and the dif
ferent fours in 1 2 Cards are 7 X ~ X j X  . But becaufe
2 out of the 12 Trumps are fpecified, all the Combinations of 4 ia
1 2 that are favourable to the Wager are reduced to the different two's
that are found in the remaining 10 Cards, which are — X7. And
this number is to the former as i to 11: the Probability therefore is
reduced by this reftridion to ^ , of what elfe it had been : that is,
it is reduced from near j to about ^ . ^Vo^^ ;
*The Doctrine (^Chances. 179'
Note; thefe Tables and others of a like kind, which different
Games may require, are befl computed and examined by beginning
with the loweft number, and obferving the Law by which the others
are formed fuccelfively. As in Tab. I, putting A^=i; and the Let
ters B, C, Z), &c. ftanding for the other Terms regularly afcending ;
we fhall have B=^x^ycA C=^x^x5, Z) = ^x
— X C, &c. till we arrive at the Term iV=: ^ x ^ X M
3 1212
And if the correfponding Terms in Tab. II. are marked by the fame
Letters dotted, then is yf' = ^ x ^, S' = ^ X fi, C=^xC,
£)'= — X A &c. up to N'=.^X N.
PROBLEM LI.
OfPiaUET.
To find at Piquet the Probability which the Dealer has
for taking one Ace or more in three Cards^ he having
none in his Hand^
Solution.
From the number of all the Cards which are thirtytwo, fub
tra<Sing twelve which are in the Dealer's Hands, there remain twenty,
among which are the four Aces.
From which it follows that the number of all the Charlces for
taking any three Cards in the bottom, is the number of Combinations
which twenty Cards may afford being taken three and three ; which by
the Rule given in our xv Problem is / ■ or 1 140.
The number of all the Chances being thus obtained, find the
number of Chances for taking one Ace precifely with two other
Cards ; find next the number of Chances for taking two Aces pre
cifely with any other Card; laflly, find the number of Chances for
taking three Aces ; then thefe Chances being added together, and
their Sum divided by the whole number of Chances, the Quotient
will exprefs the Probability required.
A a 2 But
i8o The Doctrine ©/"Chances.
But the number of Chances for taking one Ace are 4, and the
number of Chances for taking any two other Cards, are — . — ,
and therefore the number of Chances for taking one Ace and two
other Cards are — x ■ ', ' 'J  = 480, as appears from what we have
faid in the Doftrine of Combinations.
If there remains any difficulty in knowing why the number of
Chances for joining any two other Cards with the Ace already taken
is — — ^ , it will be eafily refolved if we confider that there
bein^ in the whole Pack but 4 Aces and 28 other Cards, out of
which other Cards, the Dealer has 1 2 in his Hands, there remain
only 16, out of which he has a Choice, and therefore the num
ber of Chances for taking two other Cards is what we have de
termined.
In like manner it will appear that the number of Chances for
taking two Aces precifely are \~ or 6, and that the number of
Chances for taking any other Card are — or 16; from whence
it follows that the number of Chances for taking two Aces with an
other Card are 6 X 16 or 96.
Laflly, it appears that the number of Chances for taking three
Aces is equal to ■' ; ' \ '   = 4.
1.2.3
Wherefore the Probability required will be found to be
^?o4gf+2.oi._^or^, which fradion being fubtrafted from
1140 I 140 57
Unity, the remainder will be — .
From whence it may be concluded that it is 29 to 28 that the
Dealer takes one Ace or more in three Cards, he having none in his
Hand.
The preceding Solution may be contraded by inquiring at firft
what the Probability is of not taking any Ace in three Cards, which
may be done thus.
The number of Cards in which the four Aces are contained be
ing twenty, and confequently the number of Cards out of which
the four Aces are excluded being fixteen, it follows that the num
ber of Chances which there are for the taking of three Cards, among
which no Ace fliall be found, is the number of Combinations which
fixteen Cards may afford being taken three and three, which num^.
bee
Tlje Doctrine (?/"Chances. i8i
ber of Chances by our 1 8''' Problem will be found to be ', ' ^l \ '^
or 560.
But the number of all the Chances for taking any three Cards In
twenty has been found to be 11403 from whence it follows that
the Probability of not taking any Ace in three Cards, is j^ or
— :: , and therefore the Probability of the contrary, that is of taking
one Ace or more in three Cards is — as we had found it before.
57
PROBLEM LIT.
To find at Piquet the Probability which the Eldeji has
of taking an Ace i?i five Carets^ he having no Ace in
his Hand.
Solution.
Firjl, Find the number of Chances for taking one Ace and four
other Cards, which will be 7280,
Secondly, The number of Chances for taking two Aces and three
other Cards, which will be found to be 3360.
Thirdly, The number of Chances for taking three Aces and two
other Cards, which will be found to be 480.
Fourthly, The number of Chances for taking four Aces and any
other Card, which will be found to be 1 6.
Lajlly, The number of Chances for taking any five Cards ia
twenty, which will be found to be 15504.
Let the Sum of all the particular Chances, viz. 7280 ] 3360 
480} 16, be divided by the Sum of all the Chances, viz. hy 15504,,
and the Quotient will be — or —^ — which being fubtraded
^ 15504 323 &
from Unity, the remainder will be 2L • and therefore the Odds
of the Eldeft hand taking an Ace or more in five Cards areas 232 to
91, or 5 to 2 nearly.
But if the Probability of not taking an Ace in five Cards be in
quired into, the work will be confiderabiy fliortened; for this Pro
bability will be found to be exprelTed by '^'^ '^'"! ' "' or
i82 The Doctrine o/" Chances.
4368 to be divided by the whole number of Chances, "v'lz. by 15504,
or 9 1 by 3 23 ; which makes the Probability of taking one or more Aces
^^ as before.
PROBLEM LIII.
*To find at Piquet the Probability which the Eldeji has
of taki?jg both an Ace and a Ki?ig in fve Cards^ he
havin? no7ie in his Hand.
o
So LUT I ON.
Let the following Chances be found ; viz.
1°, For one Ace, one King, and three other Cards.
2*, For one Ace, two Kings, and two other Cards.
3°, For one Ace, three Kings, and any other Card.
4°, For one Ace, and four Kings.
5°, For two. Aces, one King, and two other Cards.
6°, For two Aces, two Kings, and any other Card.
7°, For two Aces, and three Kings.
8°, For three Aces, one King, and any other Card.
9°, For three Aces, and two Kings.
10°, For four Aces, and one King.
Among thefe Cafes, there being four pairs that are alike, •Jiiz.
the fecond and fifth, the third and eighth, the fourth and tenth, the
feventh and ninth ; it follows that there are only fix Cafes to be cal
culated, whereof the firft and fixth are to be taken fingly, but the
fecond, third, fourth and feventh to be doubled j now the Opera
ration is as follows.
The/r/? Cafe has ^ X7 X ',' ; ^ ; '° or 3520 Chances.
The Jecond x^— ^X " " " '" or 15^45 the double of which
is 3; 68.
The third y. ■* ' ' x^ or 102, the double of which is
I I . 2 . 3 1 '
384 Chances,
The
*The Doctrine ^Chances. 183
The fcurtb  X ^' ' ^ \^ ' ' or 4, the double of which is 8
Chances.
The J?xth ^ ' I X ^ " I X ^ or 43 2 Chances.
The feventh ^ ' \ X ^ ' ^ ' ^ X or 24, the double of which is
48 Chances.
Now the Sum of all thofe Chances being 7560, and the whole
number of Chances for taking any five Cards out of 20 being
7 . 7 '. '3 ■ '4 ■ V °'' ^•^5°4' ^'^ follows that the Probability re
quired will be —^ or ^, and therefore the Probability of the
1 5)04 I 4u •'
contrary will be 7^, from whence it follows that the Odds a?ainft
^ (/40 O
the Eldefl: hand taking an Ace and a King are 331 to 315, or 2 i to
20 nearly.
PROBLEM LIV.
To find at Piquet the Probability of having twelve Cards
dealt tOy without King^ ^een or Knave^ which Cafe
is commonly called Cartes Blanches.
Solution.
Altho' this may be derived from what has been faid in the xx*'*
Problem, yet I fliall here prefcribe a Method which will be fome
what more eafy, and which may be followed in many other In
ftances.
Let us therefore imagine that the twelve Cards dealt to are taken
up one after another, and let us confider, 1°, the ProbabiHty of the
firft's being a Blank ; now there being 20 Blanks in the whole Pack,
and 32 Cards in all, it is plain that the Probability of it is ^ .
2°, Let us confider the Probability of the fecond's being a Blank,
which by reafon the firll: Card is accounted for, and becaufe, there
remain now but 19 Blanks and 31 Cards in all, will be found to be
^; and in like manner the Probability of the third Card's
being a Blank will be — , and fo on ; and therefore the
Proba
184 The Doctrine j/" Chances.
Probability of the whole will be expreffed by the Fradion
.0 ■ .0 . .3 ■ .7 ■ .^ ■ K ■ .. ■ .3 ■ .z . ,. .^ ■ . thenumberofMul.
tiplicators in both Numerator and Denominator being equal to twelve.
Now that Fra<flion being fliortened will be reduced to ■ '11^^^ or
— ^ — nearly, and therefore the Odds aerainft Carter Blanches are
179 1 to I nearly.
P R O B L E M LV.
'To Jind how many different Sets, effentially different from
one another^ one may have at Piquet before taking in*
Solution.
Let the Suits be difpofed in order, and let the various difpofitions
of the Cards be written underneath, together with the number of
Chances that each difpofition will afford, and the Sum of all thofe
Chances will be the thing required.
Let alfo the Letters D, H, S, C refpeilively reprefent Diamonds,
Hearts, Spades, and Clubs.
D,
l^Q Doctrine ^Chances.
i8s
A
^.
5,
C
Chances.
I
0,
0,
4.
8 — . . .
70
2
0,
0,
5.
7 —
448
3
0,
0,
6.
6 =
748
4
0,
I,
3»
8 —
448
5
0,
I.
4.
7 —
4480
6
0,
I,
5»
6 —
12544
7
0,
2,
2,
8 —
784
8
0,
2,
3.
7 —
812544
9
0,
2,
4.
6 —
54880
lo
0,
2,
5.
5 =
87808
II
0,
3.
3.
6 —
87808
12
0,
3.
4>
5 —
219520
13
0,
4.
4>
4 —
343000
14
I,
I,
2,
8—:
1792
15
I,
I,
3.
7 —
28672
16
I,
I,
4.
6 —
125440
17
I,
I,
5.
5 —
200704
18
I,
2,
2,
7 —
50176
19
I,
2,
3»
6 —
351232
20
I,
2,
4,
5 
878080
21
I,
3.
3.
5 —
1404928
22
I,
3.
4.
4 —
2195200
23
2,
2,
2,
6 —
614656
24
2,
2,
3»
5 —
2458624
25
2,
2,
4.
4 —
3851600
26
2,
3.
3.
4 —
6146560
27
3'
3>
3.
3 —
9834496
bum
28,967,278
Which Sum would feem incredibly great, if Calculation did not
prove it to be fo.
But it will not be inconvenient to {hew by one Example how
the numbers exprefling the Chances have been found, for which
we mud have recourfe to our xx''' and xxi'*" Problems, and there ex
amine the Method of Solution, the fame being to be obferved in this
place. Let it therefore be required to affign the 19''' Cafe, which is
for taking i Diamond, 2 Hearts, 3 Spades and 6 Clubs. Then it
will eafily be feen that the variations for taking i Diamond are 8,
that the variations for taking 2 Hearts are ^^ — = 28, and that
B b ' ' ' the
1 8^ 7^<? Doctrine t/ Chances.
the variations for taking 3 Spades are ^ ' ^ ' "^ z=: 56, and that the
variations for taking 6 Clubs are — ' I ' ' ^ ' ^ ' I := 28. And
1 .2.3.4.5.0
therefore that the number of Chances for the i g^^ Cafe is the pro
dudl of the feveral numbers 8, 28, 56, 28, which will be found
35'232
There is one thing worth obferving, which is, that when the
number of Cards of any one Suit being to be combined together, ex
ceed one half the number of Cards of that Suit, then it will be fuf
ficient to combine only the difference between that number and the
whole number of Cards in the Suit, which will make the operation
fliorter ; thus being to combine the 8 Clubs by fix and fix, I take
the difference between eight and fix, which being 2, I combine the
Cards only two and two, it being evident that as often as I take 6
Cards of one Suit, I. leave 2 behind of the fame Suit, and that there
fore I cannot take them oftner fix and fix, than I can take them two
and two.
It may perhaps feem ftrange that the number of Sets which we
have determined, notwithftanding its largenefs, yet fliould not come
up to the number of different Combinations whereby twelve Cards
might be taken out of thirtytwo, that number being 225792840 ;
but it ought to be confidered, that in that number feveral fets of the
fame import, but differing in Suit might be taken, v^hich would not
introduce an eflential difference among the Sets.
Remark.
Tt may eafily be perceived from the Solution of the preceding
Problem, that the number of variations which there are in twelve
Cards make it next to impoffible to calculate fome of the Probabi
lities relating to Piquet, fuch as that which refults from the priority
of Hand, or the Probabilities of a Pic, Repic or Lurch ; however
notwithftanding that difficulty, one may from obfervations often re
peated, nearly eftimate what thofe Probabilities are in themfelves,
as will be proved in its place when we come to treat of the reafon
able conjedures which may be deduced from Experiments ; for which
reafon I fiiall fet down fome Obfervations of a Gentleman who has a
very great degree of Skill and Experience in that Game, after which
I fhall make an application of them.
Hypotheses.
1 °, That 'tis 5 to 4 that the Eldeft hand wins a Game.
2V
The Doctrine (?/"Chances. 187
2*, That is 2 to i, that the Eldeft wins rather without lurch
ing than by lurching.
3°, That it is 4 to i, that the Youngeft Hand wins rather with
out lurching than by lurching.
But it muft carefully be obferved that thefe Odds are rertrained to
the beginning of a Game.
From whence, to avoid Fradions, we may fuppofe that the Eldefl:
has 75 Chances to win one Game, and the Youngeft 60.
That out of thefe "j^ Chances of the Eldeft, he has 50 to win
without Lurch, and 25 with a Lurch.
That of the 60 Chances of the Youngeft, he has 48 to win with
out a Lurch, and 1 2 with a Lurch.
This being laid down, I fliall proceed to determine the Probabi
lities of winning the Set, under all the circumftances in which A
and B may find themfelves.
1°, When A and B begin, he who gets the Hand has the Odds
of 6478643 to 3362857 or 23 to 20 nearly that he wins the
Set.
2°, If yf has I Game and Bnone.
Before they cut for the Hand, the Odds in favour of A arc
682459 to 309067 or 38 to 23 nearly.
\i A has the Hand, the Odds are 4627 to 1448, or 16 to 5
nearly.
If jB has the Hand^ the Odds in favour of .<^ are 51105810 309067,
or 38 to 23 nearly.
3°, If A has I Game, and B i Game.
He who gets the Hand has the Odds of 1003 9 to 8186 or 27 to
22 nearly.
4°, \iA has 2 Games and B none.
Before they cut for the Hands the Odds are 59477 to 13423, or
3 1 to 7 nearly.
If A has the Hand, the Odds are 51 17 to 958, or 16 to 3
nearly.
If B has the Hand, the Odds in favour of .^ are 1 151 to 307, or
25 to 7 nearly.
5°, If A has 2 Games and J5 i.
Before they cut for the Hand, the Odds are 92 to 43, or 15 to
7 nearly.
If u4 has the Hand, the Odds are 11 to 4. *
If
* In this Cafe 5 has 1 2 Chances for I, and 48 for — , but the number of all the
B b 2 Chances
i88 Z5j Doctrine o/'Chances.
IfB has the Hand, the Odds in favour of A are 17 to 10.
6", If ^ has 2 Games and B 2 Games, he who gets the Hand
has 5 to 4 in his favour.
I hope the Reader will eafily excufe my not giving the Demon
ftration of the foregoing Calculation, it being fo ealily deduced
from the Rules given before, that this would Teem entirely fuper
fluous.
PROBLEM LVI.
Of Saving Clauses.
A /jas 2 Chances to beat B, a?id B has i Chance to beat
A ; but there is o?2e Cha7tce which ifititles them both to
withdraw their own Stake^ which wefuppofe equal to f ;
to find the Gain of A.
Solution.
This Queftion tho' eafy in itfelf, yet is brought in to caution Be
ginners againft a Miftake which they might commit by imagining
that the Cafe, which intitles each Man to recover his own Stake, needs
not be regarded, and that it is the fame thing as if it did not exift :
This I mention fo much more readily, that fome people who have
pretended great fkill in thefe Speculations of Chance have them
felves fallen into that error. Now there being 4 Chances in all,
whereof A has 2 to gain f, 'tis evident that the Expedation of that
Gain is worth /; but A having i Chance in 4 to lofe f, the Riik
of that is a Lofs which muft be eftimated by —f, and therefore the
abfolute Gain of y^ is — / ^f,ov—f. But fuppofing the faving
Claufe not confidered, A would have 2 Chances in 3 to win /J and
I Chance in 3 to lofe fy and therefore the Expedation of his Gain
Chances between A and B are i ^5, therefore B has ' "^ ^— =z i,
•'■' '35 — l}5 15.
Odds 1 1 to 4. KB has the Hand, then he has 25 for i, 50 for JL=: JilH — _5£,
» "'^ . '35
= ^ , Odds 17 to 10. But before they cut for the Hand £ has ± 4 H J 
= ^, Odds 92 to 43.
would
Hoe Doctrine (j/ Chances. i8g
would be worth —f, and the Rifk of his Lofs would be eftimated
by ^/; which would make his Gain to be 4"/ 7/=—/
3 ^ .' 3 >
From whence it may evidently be feen that the condition of drawing
Stakes is to be confidcred ; and indeed in this laft Cafe, there are the
Odds of 2 to I that A beats B, whereas in the former it cannot be
faid but very improperly that A has 2 to 1 the beft of the Game ;
for if yf undertakes without any limitation to beat 5, then he muft
lofe if the faving Claufe happens, and therefore he has but an equa
lity of Chance to beat or not to beat ; however it may be faid with
fonie propriety of Expreffion, that it is 2 to i that A rather beats
B than that A beats him.
But to make the Queftion more general, let A and B each depo
fite the Sum f; let a reprefent the Chances which A has to beat S,
and b the Chances which B has to beat A ; let there be alfo a certain
number m of Chances which may be called common, by the hap
pening of which A llvall be entitled to take up fuch part of the com
mon Stake 2/ as may be denominated by the fradion — , and B
fliall be entitled to take the remainder of it.
Then 1°, it appears that the number of all the Chances being
« { ^ f m^ whereof there are the number a which intitle A to gainy>
thence his Gain upon that fcore is „,",j.,„ y^f
2°, It appears that the number of Chances whereby A may lofe,
being b, his Lofs upon that account is ^ . ^ . ,^, x/
3°, It appears that if the Chances ;;; fliould happen, then y^ would
take up the part — of the common Stake if, and thereby gain
— / — f or ■ '^~'" x/ But the Probability of the happening of
this is — rr; — ; and therefore his Gain arifing from the Proba
bility of this circumftance is ^ Jj  — x ~^ %f.
From all which it appears that his abfolute Gain is
Now fuppofe there had been no common Chances, the Gain o£A
would have been "~'' v f.
Let it therefore be farther required to aflign what the proportion
of fi to r ought to be, to make the Gain of A to be the fame in
both Caies.
19^ ^^ Doctrine «>/ Chances.
This will be eafily done by the Equation ^^ + T^^S"
r= ~ ; wherein multiplying all the Terms by a \ i> \ m we
fliall have the new Equation a — b \ ^—^ = — —^^
2bp — br ■= ra — br, or 2pa Ar 2^/> = 2ra, and therefore
pa \ bp^=.ra, and — r= "  . From which we may conclude,
that if the two parts of the common Stake 2/ which A and B are
refpedively to take up, upon the happening of the Chances w, are
refpedively in the proportion of a to b, then the common Chances
oive no advantage to A above what he would have had if they had
not exifted.
PROBLEM LVII.
Odds of Chance and Odds of Money compared.
A and B playing together depofit f^ apiece \ K has 2
Chances to win f, and B i Chance to imn f, whereupon
A tells B that he will play with him upon aji equality
of Chance^ if he B will fet him 2( to if, to which
B ajfents : to find whether A has any advantage or dif
advantage by that Bargain.
Solution.
In the firft circumftance, A having 2 Chances to win / and i
Chance to lofe/ his Gain, as may be deduced from the Introdudion,
7ff I n
IS ^ — =  /.
In the fecond circumflance, A having i Chance to win 2/ and i
Chance to lofe / his Gain is — ^ 3= ^J^ and therefore he gets
/by that Bargain.
But if B, after the Bargain propofed, fhould anfwer, let us play
upon an equality of Chance, and you fhall flake but \f, and I fhall
flake/; and fo I fhall have fet 2 to i, and that A fhould afTent : then
he has i Chance to win / and i Chance to lofe ^/, and therefore.
his
T^e Doctrine ^Chances. igi
his Gain is ~ — ^ — r= ^y] and therefore he is worfe by ^ /*
than he was in the firft circumftance.
But if A, after this propofal of 5, anfvsrers j let us preferve the quan
tity of the whole Stake zf, but do you ftake ^f, and I rtiall ftake f^
whereby the proportion of 2 to i will remain, and that fi aflents;
then A has i Chance to win —/and i Chance to lofe —f^ which
makes his Gain to be ^ — ; — ^ = t/ — ~f ^^ ~f which
is the fame as in the firft circumftance.
And univerfally, A having a Chances to win /, and B having b
Chances to win / if they fhould agree afterwards to play upon an
equality of Chance, and fet to each other the refpedlive Stakes.
~i^f ^"^ "TTT/^ ^^^" ^^^ G^'" o^ ^ would thereby receive no al
teration, it being in both Cafes "~'', L
PROBLEM LVIir.
Of the Duration of Play;
Two Gameflers A and B whofe proportio?i of fiill is as a
to b, each havi?ig a certain number of Pieces^ play to
gether on condition that as often as A wins a Game^
^fl?all give him one Piece; and that as often as B
witis a Game^ A pail give hitn one Piece ; and that
they ceafe not to play till fuch time as either one or the
other has got all the Pieces of his Adverfary : now let us
fuppofe two Spe&ators R and S concerning themf elves
about the ending of the Play, the firft of the?n laymiv
that the Play will be ended in a certain number of
Games which he aff}g7n, the other layi7ig to the con
trary. To find the Probability that S has ofwin?iin<r
his wager.
SOLU
192 'the Doctrine o/" Chances.
SOLUT I ON.
This Problem having ibme difficulty, and it having given me
occafion to inquire into the nature of fome Series naturally refult
ing from its Solution, whereby I have made fome improvements in
the Method of fumming up Series, 1 think it neceflary to begin with
the fimpleft Cafes of this Problem, in order to bring the Reader by
degrees to a general Solution of it.
Case I.
Let 2 be the number of Pieces, which each Gamefter has ; let
alfo 2 be the number of Games about which the Wager is laid : now
becaufe 2 is the number of Games contended for, \tx. a\b be raifed
to its Square, oiz. aa  2ab \ bb ; then it is plain that the Term
zab favours 5, and that the other two are againft him ; and confe
quently that the Probability he has of winning is ==fr .
Corollary
\{ a and b are equal, neither R or S have any Advantage or Dif
advantage ; but if a and b are unequal, R has the Advantage.
Case II.
Let 2 be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, as before,
but let 3 be the number of Games about which the Wager is laid :
then a \ b being raifed to its Cube, viz. a"^ \ ^aab ] ■i^abb \ b^^
it will be feen that the two Terms a^ and b^ are contrary to S, they
denoting the number of Chances for winning three times together ;
it will alfo be feen that the other two Terms ^aab and ^^^bb are
partly for him, partly againft him. Let therefore thofe two Terms
be divided into their proper parts, viz. "i^aab into cab \ aba \ baa,
and 'if^bb into abb ■\ bab ■\ bba, and it will plainly be perceived
that out of thofe fix parts there are four which are favourable to 5, viz.
aab, baa, abb, bba or zaab \ 2abb ; from whence it follows that
the Proljability which S has of winning his Wager will be
 ^ , ^ n — , or dividing both Numerator and Denominator by
fi\b. it will be found to be ■ _ iL. , which is the fame as in the
preceding Cafe. The reafon of which is, that the winning of a certain
number of even Pieces in an odd number of Games is impoffible, un
Igfs it was done in the even number of Games immediately preceding
the
Ihe Doctrine 0/ Chances. 193
the odd number, no more than an odd number of Pieces can be
won in an even number of Games, unlefs it was done in the odd
number immediately preceding it ; but ftiil the Problem of winning
an even number of Pieces in an odd number of Games is rightly
propofed ; for Inflance, the Probability of winning either of one
lide or the other, 8 Pieces in 63 Games; for, provided it be done
either before or at the Expiration of 62 Games, he who undertakes
that it (hall be done in 63 wins his Wager.
Case III.
Let 2 be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, and 4 the num
ber of Games upon which the Wager is laid : let therefore a ^ b
be raifed to the fourth Power, which is a* A; /a^a'^b f baabb  A^ab'^
M; which being done, it is plain that the Terms a^ \ /^a^b \
^ab'i j /^+ are wholly againft S, and that the only Term 6aabb is
partly for him, and partly againft him, for which reafon, let this
Term be divided into its parts, r/z. aabb, abab, abba, baab, baba,
bbaa^ and 4 of thefe parts, "viz. abab, abba, baab, baba, or i^aabb
will be found to favour iS ; from which it follows that his Probability
of winning will be "■^xji+" •
Case IV.
If 2 be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, and 5 the num
ber of Games about which the Wager is laid, the Probability which 5
has of winning his wager will be the fame as in the preceding Cafe, viz.
^aahb
Univerfally^ Let 2 be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter,
and 2 \ d the number of Games upon which tlie Wager is laid ;
~2aS^ \\~d
and the Probability which S has of winning will be . — " 
zab — ^ —
if ^ be an even number j or ^ ' if d be odd, writing d—\
inftead of d.
Case V.
If 3 be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, and 3 </the
number of Games upon which the Wager is laid, then the Probabi
C c lity
194 ^^ Doctrine <?/" Chances.
lity which S has of winning will be . ,,^ . — i^ d be an
'i,ab
i+rf"
even number, or t — '• — if it be odd.
Case VI.
If the number of Pieces of each Gamefler be more than 3, the
Expedation of 6\ or the Probability there is that the Play lliall not
be ended in a given number of Games, may be determined in the
following manner.
A General Ride for determinhig ivhat Probability there is that the
Play JImU not be determined in a given number of Games.
Let n be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, Let alfo «^
be the number of Games given j raife ^  ^ to the Power «, then
cut off the two extream Terms, and multiply the remainder by
aa ] ^ab  bb : then cut off again the two Extreams, and multi
ply again the remainder by aa{ 2ab \bb, ftill rejedling the two
Extreams ; and fo on, making as many Multiplications as there are
Units in —d; make the lafl Product the Numerator of a Fradlion
2 '
whofe Denominator let be a { bV'^'^, and that Fradlion willexprefs
the Probability required, or the Expedlation of S upon a commorv
Stake I, fuppofed to be laid between R and S ; ftill obferving that
if ^ be an odd number, you write d — i in its room.
Example I.
Let 4 be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, and 10 the
number of Games given : in this Cafe « = 4, n \ dT= lO; where
fore </=6, and ^^=3. Let therefore a\b he raifed to the
fourth Power, and rejeding continually the extreams, let three Mul
tiplications be made by aa \ zab Y bb. Thus,
<?+ 1 ^4^^33l baabb\^b^\\b'^
aa ~\2ab {bb
/S^a^b\\ba'^bb\ ^a'b^
\%a^bb\i2a^b^\ %aab^
\ 4a3^3} kaab''\\i,ab^
Mfa''hb
T%e Doctrine ^Chances. 195
aa ■\ 2ab \ bb
4 14^^!^^+ ioa'^b''\Ar\ifiah ^
48^5/^5^ 68fl+^*^ 48^5^5
aa 4 2<7(^ 4 ^'^
i 48^^^5 468^^^^f48^^^7
\td,a^b''\Z'i^2a">b'>^\b\a'^b^
Wherefore the Probability that the Play will not be ended in i o Games
will be '+ 2_ ^2^ ■ 4" — ^ which Expreffion will be reduced
to ^ , if there be an equality of Skill between the Gamefters ;
10 24
560 %
now this Fradion — — or ~ being fubtrafted from Unity, the
102.). O^ D ^ •
remainder will be ~ , which will exprefs the Probability of the
Play's ending in 10 Games, and confequcntly it is 35 to 29 that, if
two equal Gamefters play together, there will not be four Stakes
loft on either fide, in 10 Games.
A^. B, The foregoing operation may be very much con traded by
omitting the Letters a and b^ and reftoring them after the Lift Mul
tiplication ; which may be done in this manner. Make n  d — i
=r^, 2x\di —d •\ \ :=^ q ; then annex to the refpedlive Terms rc
fulting from the laftMuhiplication the literalFrodudsrt/^?, aP~'^ bi+i,
at—^bi+^, &c.
Thus in the foregoing Example, inftead of the firft Multiplicand
^a'^b \ taabb \ ^ab'^, we might have taken only 4  ^ 4 4. ^'itl
inftead of multiplying three times by aa 4 '2ob 4 '^^j we might
have multiplied only by i 4 2 4 i> which would have made the
laft Terms to have been 164 4 232 4" ^^A' Now fince that
« = 4 and d^= 6, p will be = 6 and ^ = 4, and confequently the
literal Produdls to be annexed refpedlively to the Terms 164 4 232
4 164 will be a^b^, a'~b\ a''b^, which will make the Terms refult
ing from the laft Multiplication to be \(^\a'b'' \ 22,2a' b^ \ ib^a'b'',
as they had been found before.
C c 2 Exam
196 The Doctrine <?/ Chances.
Example II.
Let 5 be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, and 10 the
number of Games given : let alfo the proportion of Skill between A
and B be as 2 to i.
Since « = 5, and ?2 } ^ =r 1 o, it follows that dz=.^. Now d
being an odd number muft be fuppofed = 4, fo that d =z 2 \
let therefore i}i be raifed to the fifth Power, and always rejeding
the Extreams, multiply twice by 1 4 2 ^ i , thus
ii151 '0110+51 + 1 20+35+ 35+ 20
1+2 + 1 1+2+J
5I+10+10I5 20H35+ 35+ 20
lIO]20 + 20lIO +40+ 70+ 70 + 40
+ 5+IO+I0I + 5 + 20+ 35 + 35I+2O
20 + 35 + 35 + 20 75+125 + 125 + 75
Now to fupply the literal Products that are wanting, let
n + ^ — 1 be made = p, and ^d + i = y, and the Pro
dudls that are to be annexed to the numerical quantities will be aPb'i,
aP^b'i'\\ ap—^bi^^, aP—:bi+'^, &c. wherefore;/, in this Cafe, being
= 5, and ^=4, then p will be r= 6, and ^ = 3, it follows that
the Products to be annexed in this Cafe be a'^b^, a^'b'^y a'^b'^, a^b^^
and confequently the Expedlation of 5 will be found to be
N. B. When n is an odd number, as it is in this Cafe, the Ex
pectation of S will always be divifible hy a ■} b. Wherefore divid
ing both Numerator and Denominator by a + b, the foregoing Ex
preffion will be reduced to
' lT?V ^' 25^333 x—^p^i
Let now a be interpreted by 2, and ^ by i, and the Expedation of 5
will become 7— .
PRO
T^e Doctrine ^Chances. ic^j
PROBLEM LIX.
^e fa?ne things being given as ift the preceding Problem^
to find the RxpeSiation of Ky or otherivife the Proba
bility that the Play will be ended in a given ntmiber of
Games.
Solution.
Firft^ It is plain that if the Expectation of 5 obtained by the pre
ceding Problem be fubtradled from Unity, there will remain the
Expedation of R.
Secondly, Since the Expedlation of S decreafes continually, as the
number of Games increafes, and that the Terms we rejefted in the
former Problem being divided by aa \ 2ab + l^l^ are the Decrement
of his Expedation; it follows that if thofe reieded Terms he divided
continually by aa 4 2ab\ bb or a ■\ b\', they will be the Incre
ment of the Expedation of R. Wherefore the Expedation of R
may be exprefled by means of thofe rejeded Terms. Thus in the
fecond Example of the preceding Problem, the Expedation of R
exprefled by means of the rejeded Terms will be found to be
yab :o bb
" ^ ^ l" a^b\ \~Z^f^
In like manner, if 6 were the number of the Pieces of each
Gamefter, and the number of Games were 14, it would be found
that the Expedation of R would be
a^^h^ 1 ''''g , zaahb ii cab 4.0
And if 7 were the number of Pieces of each Gamefter, and the
number of Games were 1 5, then the Expedation of R would be
found to be
a7\ li' ~^o y^tiabb ijj..'A> 6;.+A*
N. B. The number of Terms of thefe Series will always be
equal to — ^ ~ ^» if ^ be an even number, or to ~^ , if it br
odd.
T/jin/l^,.
198 "Tlje Doctrine <?/" Chances.
thirdly. All the Terms of thefe Series have to one another cer
tain Relations, which being once difcovered, each Term of any Se
ries relulting irom any Cafe of this Problem, may beeafiiy generated
from the preceding ones.
Thus in the firft of the two laft foregoing Series, the numerical
Coefficient belonging to the Numerator of each Term may be derived
from the preceding, in the following manner. Let K, L, M be
the three laft Coefficients, and let N be the Coefficient of the next
Term required ; then it will be found that N in that Series will con
flantly be equal to 6M — 9L ^ 2K. Wherefore if the Term which
would follow • —.rs^ in the Cafe of 16 Games given, were defiredi
then make M r= 429, L=iio, K r= 27, and the following
Coefficient will be found 1638. From whence it appears that the
Term itfelf would be ^^^^j\7r .
Likewife, in the fecond of the two foregoing Series, if the Law
by which each Term is related to the preceding were demanded, it
might thus be found. Let K, L, M be the Coefficients of the three
kfi Terms, and N the Coefficient of the Term defired ; then N
will in that Series conftantly be equal to 7M — \^'L~\y\^, or
M — 2L } K. X 7. Now this Coefficient being obtained, the Term
to which it belongs is formed immediately.
But if the univerfal Law by which each Coefficient is generated
from the preceding be demanded, it will be exprefled as follows.
Let Ji be the number of Pieces of each Gamefter : then each Co
jefficient contains
n times the laft
— n X —r^ times the laft but one
f « X •—— X  — ^ times the laft but two
— 72 V ''~" X ' "^' ^ X — — times the laft but three
23 + ,
, n X ■ '"~  X ^—  X "~ X "~'^ limes the laft but four.
'345
&;c.
Thus the number of Pieces of each Gamefter being 6, the firft
Term n would be = 6, the fecond Term n x —7" would be == 9,
the third Term n X ^^ x ^^^ would be — 2. The reft of the
Terms vaniffiing in this Cafe. Wherefore if K, L, M are the three
^ laft
"The DocTRiN E o/" Cha NCEs. 199
laft Coefficients, the Coefficient of the following Term will be 6M —
9L+ 2K.
Fourthly, The Coefficient of any Term of thefe Series may be
found independently from any relation they may have to the pre
ceding : in order to which, it is to be obferved that each Term of
thefe Series is proportional to the Probability of the Play's ending in
a certain number of Games precifely : thus in the Scries which ex
prelles the Expedtation of R^ when each Gamefter is fuppofed to
have 6 Pieces ; ^72;.
« + /.>
( lib
~ nf^hb
the lafl: Term being multiplied by the common Multiplicator
fet down before the Scries, the Produtft
d20«* *y<j'^4 »
will denote the Probability of the Play's ending in 14 Games pre
cifely. Wherefore if that Term were defired which exprefles the
Probability of the Play's ending in 20 Games precifely, or in any
number of Games denoted by n \ d, I fay that the Coefficient of
that Term will be
 X
rf</I
X
»4y— 5
X
«+</— 3
 X
'+'/4.
n>rd
3 4
to fo many Terms as there are Units in —d.
— rxV— x^V ^—^ ^~~T~
to fo many Terms as there are Units in —d — n.
0/ >fy. v+d~2 r. +J, '^+J^
r . X 2 >^ 3 ^ 4 ^ 5
to fo many Terms as there are Units in —d — 2«.
n+d — I ri+d — 2 n+d — 5 n+d—A
V ■ ^ ., _
3
— ^X
X
Sec. continued
dec. continued
6cc. continued
&c. continued
4 S
to fo many Terms as there are Units in d — ■2"
&c.
Let now n \ d he. fuppofed = 20, n being already fuppofed
= 6, then the Coefficient demanded will be found from the general
Rule to be
6
18
10 ,. iS 17
xx
16
Id
x — x—x — = 23256
= 18
Wher£
2 00 T/je Doctrine (?/"Chances.
VVlierefbie the Coefficient demanded will be 23256 — 18 =
23238, and then tlie Term itfelf to which this Coefficient does be
long, will be "pnTlT' » ^"^ confequently the Probability of the
Play s ending in 20 Games precilely will be ■ — .^ x v , — .
But feme things are to be obferved about this formation of the
Coefficients, which are,
Firjf, that whenever it happens that d, or ~d — n, or jd — 2«,
or (/ — 3;;, &c. expreffing refpedtively the number of Multiplica
tors to be taken in each Line, are = o, then 1 ought to be taken
to liipply that Line.
Secondly, That whenever it happens that thofe quantities d, or
J.^/__;;, or d — 2«, ovd — 2"' ^^' ^^^ ^^^^ ''^^"^ nothing, other
wife that they are negative, then the Line to which they belong, as
well as all the following, ought to be cancelled.
PROBLEM LX.
Suppojtna A and B to play together till fuch time as four
Stakes are 'won or loft on either ftde ; what tnuft be
their proportion of Skilly otherwife nvhat 7nuft be their
proportion of ChaJices for winning any ojie Game affigfied,
to make it as probable that the Play will be ended in four
Ca?nes as not P
So LUT I ON.
The Probability of the Play's ending in four Games is by the pre
ceding Problem '''^^^ X i : now becaufe, by Hypothefis, it is to
be an equal Chance whether the Play ends or ends not in four
Games •, let this Expreffion of the Probability be made = j , then
wc fliall have the Equation ^^f = 7 : which, making i>,a::
1, z, is reduced to "f^^ = T > or .s+ — 42^ — 622; —^z
4. I r= o. Let 122:2; be added on both fides of the Equation, then
^vjll z^ — A.Z'' \ 6zz — ^z \ I be = I22;2r, and extrading the
Square
the Doctrine of Chances. 201
Squareroot on both fides, it will be reduced to this quadratic Equa
tion, zz — 22; f I = zV 12, of which the two Roots are
X = 5.274 and z ■=. — — — . Wherefore whether the Skill of A
be to that of J5, as 5.274 to i, or as i to 5.274, there will be an
Equality of Chance for the Play to be ended or not ended in four
Games.
PROBLEM LXI.
Suppojing that A and B play till fuch time as four Staked
are won or loji : IVhat muji be their proportion of Skil^
to make it a Wager of three to one^ that the Play will
be ended in four Games f
Solution.
The Probability of the Play's ending in four Games arifing from
the number of Games 4, from the number of Stakes 4, and from
the proportion of Skill, viz. of a to ^, is "^jp^^ ; the fame Pro
bability arifing from the Odds of three to one, is — : Wherefore
' ^+A* " ^^ "' ^^^ fuppofing b, a .'. i, 2, that Equation will be
changed into ^ = J. or 2;* — 122'  3822 — 122 4 i
= 5622, and extrading the Square Root on both fides, zz — 62
 I :=: z\l ^6, the Roots of which Equation will be found to be
13.407 and ' ■ : ■: Wherefore if the Skill of either be to that of
• 3407
the other as 13.407 to i, 'tis a Wager of three to one, that the Play
will be ended in 4 Games.
PROBLEM LXII.
Suppofing that A and B play till fuch time as four Stakes
are won or lofl. What fnufl be their proportion of Skill
to make it an equal Wager that the Play will be ended
in fix Games f
SOLUTTON.
Th« Probability of the Play's ending in fix Games, arifing from
ths given number of Games 6, from the number of Stakes 4, and
D d from
202 The Doctrine t/ Chances.
from the proportion of Skill a to b. is — s"" X  — t ' ' ; the fame
Probabihty arifing from an equality of Chance, is = — , from
whence refults the Equation =k— v 'p^, ' = — » which ma
king b, a : : 1, z mull be changed into the following z^ { 6z^
— 132;* — 2023 — 132:2 \ 6z { 1=0.
In this Equation, the Coefficients of the Terms equally diflant
from the Extreams, being the fame, let it be fuppofed that the Equa
tion is generated from the Multiplication of two other Equations of
the fame nature, viz. zz — yz ■\ i :=.o., and 2* j pz^ ■\ qzz \
pz ■\~ I =z o. Now the Equation refultlng from the Multiplication
of thofe two will be
Z^ — yz^ 412,+  2/>25 •\pz  ! := o.
•\pz^ — pyz"^ — qyz'^ — yz
Arqz'^
which being compared with the firfl: Equation, we fliall have
p — y = 6, I — py ■\ q:=z — 13, ip — §^ = — 20, from whence
will be deduced a new Equation, '\jiz. y^ \ 6yy — i6y — 3 2 =r o,
of which one of the Roots will be 2.9644, and this being fubftitu
ted in the Equation zz — yz \ 1 = 0, we (hall at laft come to
the Equation zz — 2.96442 + ^ = o> °^ which the two Roots
will be 2.C76 and — ^— ; it follows therefore that if the Skill of
either Game fter be to that of the other as 2.576 to i, there will be an
equal Cfiance for four Stakes to be loft or not to be loft, in fix Games.
Corollary
If the Coefficients of the extream Terms of an Equation, and
likewife the Coefficients of the other Terms equally diftant fronn
the Extreams be the fame, that Equation will be reducible to another,
in which the Dimenfions of the higheft Term will not exceed half
the E)imenfions of the higheft Term in the former.
PROBLEM LXIII.
Suppojing A and B whofe proportion of Skill is as a io b,
fo play together till fuch time as A either wins a cer
tain number q of Stakes^ or B fome other number p of
them : what is the Probability that the Play will not be
ended in a given number of Games (n)^
Som
The Doctrine (?/"Chances. 203
Solution.
Multiply the Binomial a \b io many times by it ielf as there arc
Units in n — 1, always obferving after every Multiplication to
rcjeft thofe Terms in which the Dimenfions of the Quantity a exxeed
the Dimenfions of the Quantity b, by 5; as alfo thofe Terms in
which the Dimenfions of the Quantity b exceed the Dimenfions of
the Quantity <?, by/»; then fhall the laft Produdl be the Numera
tor of a Fraction exprefling the Probability required, of which Frac
tion the Denominator muft be the Binomial a •\ b raifed to that
Power which is denoted by «.
Example.
Let p be = 3, y = 2, and let the given number of Games be
= 7. Let now the following Operation be made according to the
foregoing Direftions.
a\b
a\b
aa\\2ab{'bb
_ a\b
2aaf^^^2^b^{b^
fit—
2a^b\\ saabb^2^b^
a+b
Sa'bb\%aabi\\^ab*
nyb
Sa^bS\\Tia'b''\%aab^
a\b
\'^a''b^\z\a^b''\\%ab'
From this Operation we may conclude, that the Probability of
the Play's not ending in 7 Games is equal to — ^i^.i=^i~ — . Now
if an equality of Skill be fuppofed between A and B, the Expref
lion of this Probability will be reduced to • ' ^^l — or — : Where
fore the Probability of the Play's ending in 7 Games will be ^ ;
from which it follows that it is 47 to 17 that, in feven Games, either
A wins two Stakes of 5, or B wins three Stakes of A.
D d 2 PRO
204 llje Doctrine ^Chances.
PROBLEM LXIV.
The fame things being fuppofed as in the precedi?ig Problem,
to jind the Probability of the Plays enditig in a given
number of Games.
Solution.
Firft, If the Probability of the Play's not ending in the given
number of Games, which we may obtain from the preceding Pro
Mem, be fubtraded from Unity, there will remain the Probability of
its ending in the fame number of Games.
Secondly, This Probability may be exprefled by means of the
Terms rejeded in the Operation belonging to the preceding Problem :
Thus if the number of Stakes be 3 and 2, the Probability of the Play 'a
ending in 7 Games may be exprefled as follows.
y\ . ■\ah I 'liaabb
X I 1 ^^tT +
Suppofing both a and b equal to Unity, the Sum of the £rft
Series will be = ^ , and the Sum of the fecond will be ~ ;
which two Sums being added together, the aggregate ~ exprefles
the Probability that, in feven Games, either A fhall win two Stakes
of 5, or B three Stakes of A.
Thirdly, The Probability of the Play's ending in a certain num
ber of Games is always compofed of a double Series, when the Stakes
are unequal : which double Series is reduced to a fingle one, in the
Cafe of an Equality of Stakes
The firft Series always exprefles the Probability there is that A, in
a given number of Games, or fooner, may win of B the number q
of Stakes, excluding the Probability there is that B before that time
may have been in a circumftance of winning the number p of
Stakes • both which Probabilities are not inconfiftent together : for
A in f ""teen Ganies for Inftance or fooner, may win two Stakes of
B, though B before that time may have been in a circumftance of
winning three Stakes of A.
The fecond Series always expreflfes the Probability there is that
B in that given number of Games, may win of yf a certain num
ber
"The Doctrine oJ Chances. 205
ber p of Stakes, excluding the Probability there is that A, before
that time, may win of jB the number q of Stakes.
The firft Terms of each Series may be reprefented refpedtively by
the following Terms.
aq 1 qab ^ y . ^ f ^ auho
J 9 i?+ < »!;• "'*
, y . y+i; . ■7 + 6 . <i\ . a*b*
•^ 1.2.3, "i""^"
' I . Z . % . 4. . a + b\ '
:^;. ^ I + T^' "T , . 2 "7+71* » 1.2.3 ^hA"
+ . . z . 3 . 4  "T^* ' '^^•
Each of thefe Series continuing in that regularity till fuch time
as there be a number p of Terms taken in the firft, and a number q
of Terms taken in the fecond ; after which the Law of the conti
nuation breaks off.
Now in order to find any of the Terms following in either of
thefe Series, proceed thus: let /> f ? — 2 be called /; let the
CoefRcient of the Term defired be T ; let alfo the Coefficients of
the preceding Terms taken in an inverted order, be S, R, Q, P,
&c. then will T be equal to /S ^^^ x — 7— R 1 — —— X — ""^ x
~iCt^X^X^X~P, &c. Thusif/>be = 3
and q z=. 1. then / will be 3J2 — 2=3, wherefore /S —
 ~' X  ~^ R would in this Cafe be equal to 3S — R, which fhews
that the Coefficient of any Term defired would be three times the
laft, minus once the lafl but one.
To apply this, let it be required to find what Probability there is
that in fifteen Games or fooner, either^ fhall win two Stakes of 5,
or B three Stakes oi A\ or which is all one, to find what Probability
there is that the Play fliall end in fifteen Games at farthert ; A and
J5 refolving to play till fuch time as A eitlier wins two Stakes or
B three.
Let 2 and 3, in the two foregoing Series, be fubf^ituted re pec
tively in the room of q and />, the three firll Terms of the firil Sc^
ries will be, fetting afide the common Multiplicator, i f ~^ —
"4" ^ TT^^ ' : likewife the two firfl Terms of the fecond will be
I ^ —rp*"  ^^'^^ becaufe the Coefficient of any Term defired in
each
2o6 Tlie Doctrine ^Chances.
each Series is refpedtively three times the laft, minm once the laft
but one, it follows that the next Coefficient in the firfl Series
will be found to be 13, and by the fame Rule the next to it
34, and fo on. In the fame manner, the next Coefficient in
the fecond Series will be found to be 8, and the next to it 21,
and io on. Wherefore rcftoring the common Multiplicators the
two Series will be
If we fuppofe an equality of Skill between A and 5, the Sum of
the firfl Series will be — rg » the Sum of the fecond will be
and the Aggregate of thofe two Sums will be
3,5S ' "^ 00 o .,276s '
which will exprefs the Probability of the Play's ending in fifteen Games
or fooner. This laft Fradtion being fubtraded from Unity, there
will remain  '^^"1 , which expreffes the Probability of the Play's
3.' 7. ',8 * •'
continuing beyond fifteen Games: Wherefore 'tis 31 171 to 1597,
or 59 to 2 nearly that one of the two equal Gamefters that fhall be
pitched upon, (hall in fifteen Games at fartheft, either win two
Stakes of his Adverfary, or lofe three to him.
N. B. The Index of the Denominator in the laft Term of each
Series, and the Index of the common Multiplicator prefixed to it
being added together, muft either equal the number of Games
given, or be lefs than it by Unity. Thus in the firft Series, the
Index 12 of the Denominator of the laft Term, and the Index 2
of the common Multiplicator being added together, the Sum is 14,
which is lefs by Unity than the number of Games given. So like
wife in the fecond Series, the Index 1 2 of the Denominator of the
laft Term, and the Index 3 of the common Multiplicator being
added together, the Sum is 15, which precifely equals the number
of Games given.
It is carefully to be obfervcd that thofe two Series taken together
exprefs the Expedlation of one and the fame perfon, and not of two
different perfons ; that is properly of a Spedator, who lays a wager
that
TIdb Doctrine <?/ Chances. 207
that the Play will be ended in a given number of Games. Yet in
one Cafe, they may exprefs the Expedlations of two different perfons :
for Inftance, of the Gamefters themfelves, provided that both Series
be continued infinitely; for in that Cafe, the firfl Series infinitely
continued will exprefs the Probability that the Gamefter A may
fooner win two Stakes of 5, than that he may lofe three to him :
likewife the fecond Series infinitely continued will exprefs the Pro
bability that the Gamefler B may fooner win three Stakes of y^,
than lofe two to him. And it will be found, (when I come to
treat of the Method of fumming up this fort of Series, whofe Terms
have a perpetual recurrency of relation to a fixed number of prece
ding Terms) that the firfl Series infinitely continued is to the fecond
infinitely continued, in the proportion of aa x aa ■\ ab ■\ bb to b"" x
a \ b; that is in the Cafe of an Equality of Skill as 3 to 2, which
is conformable to what I have faid in the ix'*" Problem.
Fourthly, Any Term of thefe Series may be found independently
from any of the preceding : for if a Wager be laid that A fliall either
win a certain number of Stakes denominated by q, or that B fhall win a
certain number of them denominated by/>, and that the number of
Games be exprefTed by 5  ^; then I fay that the Coefficient of any
Term in the firft Series anfwering to that number of Games will be
"1 I ^ 2
X
X
3 " 4
many Multiplicatorsas there are Units in d.
&c. continued to fo
4^x
q+d—\
q+d
X
?+^— 3
&c. continued to fo
many Terms as there are Units in ;d—p.
&c. continued to fo
many Terms as there are Units in ~d—p—q.
37+^/>
q+d
X
1^d
4
continued to fo
many Terms as there are Units in ^d — 2p — q.
+
X
X
X
.3 •■ 4
many Terms as there are Units in ^d—2p — zq,
~1 ^ ~ 4
&c. continued to fo
X
&c. continued to fb
many Terms as there are Units, in ^d^^p—zq.
V
79+ ^f
2o8 "The Doctrine o/" Chances.
H ■ • X ^— ; X , ■ X ~ , &c. continued to fo
many Terms as there are Units in L^^^p—'^q.
And fo on.
And the fame Law will hold for the other Series, calling /)f«J
the number of Games given, and changing q into p, and p into a, as
alfo d into ^, ftill remembring that when d is an odd number, a — i
ought to be taken in the room of it, and the like for S.
And the fame obfervation muft be made here as was made at the
end of the lix'*" Problem, viz. that \i ^d, oxd—p, or d — p — y,
or ' d — 2/) — q, or —d — 2p — zq^ &c. exprefllng refpeftively
the number of Multiplicators to be taken in each Line, are
— o, then 1 ought to be taken for that Line, and alfo, that if
~d,or^d — p, or —d — p — q, Sec. arc lefs than nothing, other
wife negative, then the Line to which they belong as well as all the
following ought to be cancelled.
PROBLEM LXV.
Jf A a^id B, whofe proportion ofjkill is fuppofed as a to b,
play together : JVhat is the Probability that one of
them, Juppofe A, may i?t a number of Games not ex
ceeding a nufnber given, win of ^ a certain number of
Stakes f leaviyjg it wholly indifferent whether B, before
the expiration of thofe Games, may or may not have
been in a circumflance of winning the fa?ne, or any
other number of Stakes of K.
Solution.
Suppofing n to be the number of Stakes which A is to win of 5,
and n ^\ d the number of Games ; let a\bht raifed to the Power
whofe Index is n\'d , then if d be an*odd number, take fo many
Terms of that Power as there are Units in — ^ ; take alfo fo
many of the Terms next following as have been taken already, but
prefix to them in an inverted order, the Coefficients of the preceding
Terms. But if </ be an even number, take fo many Terms of the
faid
Ihe Doctrine of Chances. 209
faid Power as there are Units in d\ 1 ; then take as many of
the Terms next following as there are Units in 4^> and prefix to
them in an inverted order the Coefficients of the preceding Terms,
omitting the lift of them ; and thofe Terms taken all together will
compofe the Numerator of a Fradlion exprefling the Probability re
quired, the Denominator of which Fradion ought to be a \ ^V+'^
Example I.
Suppofing the number of Stakes, which A is to win, to be Three,
and the given number of Games to be Ten ; \ti a \ bhc raifed to
the tenth power, mz, a'° \ loa'^b \ \^abb ■\ izoa'^b^ \
zioa^b^ \2.^za^b'^ \ 2ioa'^b^ ■\ izca'^b'' ^^^aap \ lOdb^ { b'°.
Then by reafon that « = 3, and n \ d =z 10, it follows that </ is
= 7, and "^' =: 4. Wherefore let the Four firft Terms of
the faid Power be taken, viz. a^° \ loa'^b ■\ ^^a^bb \ \zoalb\
and let the four Terms next following be taken likewife without re
gard to their Coefficients, then prefix to them in an inverted order,
the Coefficients of the preceding Terms : thus the four Term.s fol
lowing with their new Coefficients will be izoa^b"^ ^ \K^a'>b'> \
joa^b^ \ la^bT. Then the Probability which A has of winning
three Stakes of B in ten Games or fooner, will be exprefTed by the
following Fraction
a^''ir\oa1bir\'^a%hh\i^a'h"'\\zc_aH^.\j^^a^li\\ca*b^'ra^b''
which in the Cafe of an Equality of Skill between A and B will be
reduced to ^^ or — .
1024 32
Example II.
Suppofing the number of Stakes which A has to win to be Four,
and the given number of Games to be Ten ; let a ] b be raifed to
the tenth Power, and by reafon that n is =r 4, and «  ^ = i o,
it follows that ^ is = 6, and \d A^ i = 4 j wherefore let the four
lirfl: Terms of the faid Power be taken, viz. a'° \ loa'^b f /\.^a^bb
f 120^7/^5 . take alfo three of the Terms following, but prefix to
them, in an inverted order, the Coefficients of the Terms already
taken, omitting the laft of them; hence the three Terms following
with their new Coefficients will be /:^^a^b^\ loa^b'' {• la^b^. Then
E e the
2IO He Doctrine ^Chances.
the Probability which A has of winning four Stakes of JS in ten Games,
or fooner, will be exprefTed by the following Fradion
which in the Cafe of an Equality of Skill between A and B will be
reduced to — — or — r .
1024 120
Another Solution.
Suppofing as before that « be the number of Stakes which A is
to win, and that the number of Games be n  d, the Probability
which A has of winning will be exprefled by the following Series
 ^ V ' "T~T^r^'~^ — > ^^ which Series ought to be con
tinued to fo many Terms as there are Units in ^d\i ; always ob
ferving to fubftitute d — i in the room of d in Cafe ^be an odd num
ber, or which is the fame thing, taking fo many Terms as there are
Units in .
Now fuppofing, as in the firil Example of the preceding Solution,
that Three is the number of Stakes, and Ten the given number of
Games, and alfo that there is an equality o f Skill between A and
B, the foregoing Series will become jX i + — { — \ j — —
— • — , as before.
Remark.
In the firft attempt that 1 had ever made towards folving the ge
neral Problem of the Duration of Play, which was in the Year
1708, I began with the Solution of this lxv'** Problem, well
knowing that it might be a Foundation for what I farther wanted,
fince which time, by a due repetition of it, I folved the main
Problem : but as I found afterwards a nearer way to it, I barely
publifhed in my firft Effay on thofe matters, what feemed to me
moft fimple and elegant, ftill preferving this Problem by me in or
der to be publilhed when I fhould think it proper. Now in the
year 17 13 Mr. de Monmort printed a Solution of it in a Book by him
publiflied upon Chance, in which was alfo inferted a Solution of
the fame by Mr. Nicolas Bernoulli; and as thofe two Solutions feemed
to
Ihe Doctrine(?/"Chances. 211
to me, at firft fight, to have feme affinity with what I had found
before, 1 confidered them with very great attention ; but the Solu
tion of Mr. Nicolas BermuHi being very much crouded with Symbols,
and the verbal Explication of them too fcanty, I own I did nor
underftand it thoroughly, which obliged me to confider Mr. de Mon
mort\ Solution with very great attention : I found indeed that he
was very plain, but to my great furprize I found him very erroneous ;
ftill in my Dodlrine of Chances I printed that Solution, but rediiied
and afcribed it to Mr. de Monfnort, without the lead intimation of
any alterations made by me ; but as I had no thanks for fo doing, I
refume my right, and now print it as my own : but to come to the
Solution.
Let it be propofed to find the number of Chances there are for
A to win two Stakes of B, or for B to win three Stakes of ^, in
fifteen Games.
The number of Chances required is exprefled by two Branches
of Series ; all the Series of the firft Branch taken together exprefs
the number of Chances there are for A to win t .vo Stakes of B,
exclufive of the number of Chances there are for B before that time,
to win three Stakes of A. All the Series of the fecond Branch
taken together exprefs the number of Chances there are for B to win
three Stakes of ^, exclufive of the number of Chances there are for
A before that time to win two Stakes of B.
Firjl Branch of Series.
flU a^*b a'ihi a'^i! a"i* a'°&s a^i^ a^hl ah'' aHo a^h" a^i" aii" aH'i
1 + 15 + 105 + 45541365 + 3003 + 5005 + 5005 + 3005+1365 + 455+ 105+ 15 +1
— I — «5 — «05— 455— 455 — '03  15 — '
+ I + 15 + 15 + I
Second Branch of Series.
4'S iHa b'^ia^ l>"a* b'°a^ b^a'' b^di bU^ b^tfl bU'" b^a" b^a" i'a'«
1+15 + 105 +455 +1365 + 3003 +5005 + 3003 + 135.5 + 455+105+ 15 +1
— « — 15 — 105  455 —1365—45; — '05 — 15 — 1
+ I + 15 + I
The literal Quantities which are commonly annexed to the nu
merical ones, are here written on the top of them ; which is done,
to the end that each Series being contained in one Line, the de
pendency they have upon one another, may thereby be made more
confpicuous.
E e 2 The
2 12 T'he Doctrine i?/' Chances.
The firfl Series of the firft Branch expreffes the number of Chan
ces there are for A to win two Staines of B, including the number
of Chances there are for B before, or at the Expiration of the fifteen
Games, to be in a Circumftance of winning three Stalces of A ;
which number of Chances may be deduced from the lxv'"' Pro
blem.
The fecond Series of the firft Branch is a part of the firft, and
expreffes the number of Chances there are for B to win three Stakes
of A, out of the number of Chances there are for A^ in the firfl:
Series to win two Stakes of B. It is to be obferved about this Se
ries, Firjiy that the Chances of B expreffed by it are not reftirained
to happen in any order, that is, either before or after A has won two
Stakes of B. Secondly, that the literal produd^s belonging to it are
the fame with thofe of the correfponding Terms of the firft Series.
Thirdly, that it begins and ends at a'n Interval fiom the firft and
laft Terms of the firft Series equal to the number of Stakes which
B is to win. Fourthly, that the numbers belonging to it are the
numbers of the firft Series repeated in order, and continued to one
half of its Terms ; after which thofe numbers return in an inverted
order to the end of that Series : which is to be underftood in cafe
the number of its Terms fliould happen to be even ; for if it fliould
happen to be odd, then that order is to be continued to the greateft
half, after which the return is made by omitting the laft number.
Fifthly, that all the Terms of it are affedcd with the fign ininus.
The Third Series is part of the fecond, and expreffes the num
ber of Chances there are for A to win two Stakes of B, out of the
number of Chances there are in the fecond Series for B to win
three Stakes of A , with this difference, that it begins and ends at
an Interval from the firft and laft Terms of the fecond Series, equal
to the number of Stakes which A is to win ; and that the Terms of
it are all pofitive.
It is to be obferved, that let the number of thofe Series be what
it will, the Interval between the beginning of the firft and the
beginning of the fecond, is to be equal to the number of Stakes which
B Is to win ; and that the Interval between the beginning of the fe
cond and the beginning of the third, is to be equal to the number
of Stakes which A is to win ; and that thefe Intervals recur alter
nately in the fame order. It is to be obferved likewife that all thefe
Scries are alternately pofitive and negative.
All the Obfervations made upon the firft Branch of Series be
longing alfo to the fecond, it would be needlefs to fay any thing
more of them.
Now
Ithe Doctrine <?/'Chances. 213
Now the Sum of all the Series of the firft Branch, being added
to the Sum of all the Series of the fecond, the Aggregate of thefe
Sums will be the Numerator of a Fraftion exprefling the Proba
bility of the Play's terminating in the given number of Games;
of which the Denominator is the Binomial a Ar b raifed to a Power
whofe Index is equal to that number of Games. Thus fuppofing
that in the Cafe of this Problem both a and b are equal to Unity,
the Sum of the Series in the firft Branch will be 18778, the Sum of
the Series in the fecond will be 12393, and the Aggregate of both
31 17 I ; and the Fifteenth Power of 2 being 3276^, it follows that
the Probability of the Play's terminating in Fifteen Games will be
^.^g , which being fubtrafted from Unity, the remainder will be
 ^]^l^  '• From whence we may conclude that it is a Wager of 3 1 17 1
to 1597, that either A in Fifteen Games (hall win two Stakes of .8,
or B win three Stakes of A : which is conformable to what was
found in the lxiv'*' Problem.
PROBLEM LXVI.
'To jind That Probability there is that ifi a given number
of Games A may be wiiiner of a certain number q of
Stakes, and at fome other time B may likewife be
winner of the number p of Stakes^ fo that both cir^
cumfiances may happen.
Solution.
Find by onr lxv'^ Problem the Probability which A has of winr
jiing, without any limitation, the number q of Stakes : find alfa
by the ixiii'' Problem tlie Probability which A has of winning
that number of Stakes before B may happen to win the number
p ; then from the firft Probability fubtrading the fecond, the re
mainder will exprefs the Probability there is that both A and B may
be in a circumftance of winning, but B before A. In the like man
ner, from the Probability which B has of winning without limita
tion, fubtrading the Probability which he has of winning before A,
the remainder will exprefs the Probability there is that both A
and B may be in a circumftance of winning, but A before B:
wherefore adding thefe two remainders together, their Sum will ex
prefs the Probability required.
Thus;
214 ^^ Doctrine o/" Chances.
Thus if it were required to find what Probability there is, that
in Ten Games A may win Two Stakes of By and that at fome
other time B may win Three :
The firft Scries will be found to be
The fecond Series will be
The difference or thele Series beine =77^^ X — r>6 + " 'TrvT
D ti\ti' a\r\\° I «tt>°
expreffes the firft part of the Probability required, which in the Cafe
of an equality of Skill between the Gameflers would be reduced to
3
The third Series is as follows,
^ab tjaabb 2'aa^b^
The fourth Series is
a\b
6i 3«o uabb 7^ 2Ia'''
6
/,^ aabb ya^b^
The difference of thefe two Series being ^qr^r X — r^*'!  ^^6
expreffes the fecond part of the Probability required, which in the
Cafe of an equality of Skill would be reduced to ^ . Wherefore
the Probability required would in this Cafe be j:^ 4" "777" ="777" •
Whence it follows, that it is a Wager of 495 to 17, or 29 to i very
near, that in Ten Games A and 5 will not both be in a circumftance
of winning, viz. A the number q and B the number p of Stakes.
But if by the conditions of the Problem, it were left indifferent
whether A or B fhould win the two Stakes or the three, then the
Probability required would be increafed, and become as follows j
•viz.
flilil aabb ■ja'b^
•T" ^+2^3 X ^ip^^ 1 ^+A<>
which
'The Doctrine of Chances. 215
which, in the Cafe of an equality of Skill between the Gamefters,
would be double to what it was before.
PROBLEM LXVII.
72> find what Probability there is^ that i?i a given nu7n
ber of Games A may win the 7iumber q of Stakes ;
with this farther condition^ that B during that whole
number of Games may never have kee^i winner of the
number p of Stakes.
Solution,
From the Probability which A has of winning without any li
mitation the number q of Stakes, fubtradl the Probability there is
that both A and jB may be winners, viz. A of the number q, and
B of the number p of Stakes, and there will remain the Probability
required.
But if the conditions of the Problem were extended to this alter
native, viz. that either A fliould win the number q of Stakes, and B
be excluded the winning of the number p j or that B (hould win
the number^ of Stakes, and y^ be excluded the winning of the num
ber ^, the Probability that either the one or the other of thefe two
Cafes may happen, will eafily be deduced from what we have faid.
The Rules hitherto given for the Solution of Problems relating
to the Duration of Flay are eafily pradlicable, if the number of
Games given is but fmall ; but if that number is large, the work
will be very tedious, and fometimes fwell to that degree as to be
in fome manner imprafticable : to remedy which inconveniency, I
fhall here give an Extradt of a paper by me produced before the
Royal Society, wherein was contained a Method of folving very
expeditioufly the chief Problems relating to that matter, by the help
of a Table of Sines, of which I had before given a hint in the firft
Edition of my JDo^r/wd o/'CZwwff^, pag. 149, and 150.
PROBLEM LXVIIL
To fohe by a Method different from any of the pre
ceding., the Problem lix, when a is to b in a ratio of
Equality.
SOLU
2 1 6 The Doctrine <?/" Chances.
Solution.
Let 71 be the number of Games given, and p the number of
Stakes ; let Q reprefent 90 degrees of a Circle whofc Radius is
equal to Unity ; let C, D, E, F, &c. be the Sines of the Arcs
iL J^ ^LL J:S. &c. till the Quadrant be exhaufted ;
let aUb, c, d, e, f, Sec. be the Cofines of thofe Arcs : then if the
difference between a and p be an even number, the Probability of
the Play's not ending in the given number of Games will be repre
fented by the Series
»4i ,"+1 ,»}i ^n+l
of which Series very few Terms will be fufficient for a very near
approximation. But if the difference between n and p be odd, then
z c" d" " f"
the Probabity required will beX; ir+"i: F"
&c.
In working by Logarithms, you are perpetually to fubtradt, from
the Logarithm of every Term, the Produdl of 10 into the number
«, in cafe the number « — p be even ; but in cafe it be odd, you
are to fubtrad the Produd of 10 into n — i, and if the Subtrac
tion cannot be made without making the remainder negative, add
10, 20, or 30, &c. and make fuch proper allowances for thofc addi
tions as thofe who are converfant with Logarithms know how to
make.
To apply this to fome particular cafes, let it be required to find
the Probability of Twelve Stakes being not loft in 108 Games.
Here becaufe the difference between 108 and 12 is 96, I take
the firft form, thus
The Arcs y , j , y , —p , y , —j . —j > «c.
being refpedively 7^—3°') za'' — 30', 37^ — 3°'' 5^'^— 3°'.
(fjj qo', 82'' — 30', gy^ — 30', &c. I take only the fix firft,
as not exceeding 90''
Now the Logarithm of the Cofine of y'^ — 30' being 9.9962686,
I multiply it by 7i f I, that is in this Cafe by 109, and the produdl
will be 1089.5932774, which is the Logarithm of the Numerator
of the firft Fradion — ^ — .
From
"The Doctrine o/" Chances. 217
From that Logarithm, I fubtradl the Logarithm of the Sine of
7</ — 20' here reprefented by C, which being 9. 11 56977, the re
mainder will be 1080.4775797, out of which rejedting loSo pro
dudl of 10 by the given number of Games 108, and taking only
0.4775797 the number anfwcring will be 3.00327, which being
multiplied by the common Multiplicator — , that is in this Cafe by
— or ^ , the produdt will be 0.50053, which Term alone de
termines nearly the Probability required.
For if we intend to make a Corredion by means of the fecond Term
— j3 — , we fhall find the Logarithm of — j^— to be 1076.6692280
to which adding 10, and afterwards fubtrading 1080, the remain
der will be 6.6692280, to which anfwers 0.0004669, of which
the 6^'' part is 0.0000778, which being almofl nothing may be
fafely rejedled. And whenever it happens that « is a large number
in refped to />, the firft Term alone of thefe Series will exceeding
near determine the Probability required.
Let it now be required to find the Probability of 45 Stakes being
not loft on either fide in 1519 Games.
The Arcs y , ^ , ^ , &c. being refpedively 2^ 6^, 10^^
&c. I take, 1°, the Logarithm of the Cofine of 2^ which is
9.9997354, which being multiplied by n \ i, that is in this Cafe
by 1520, the produdl will be 1 5199.5988080, out of which fub
trafting the Logarithm of the Sine of 2', viz.. 8.5428192, the re
mainder will be 15191.0559S88, out of which rejecting 15190,
the number anfwering will be 1 1.3759, which being multiplied by
^, that is, in this Cafe by ^ , the prouu6t will be .50559
which nearly determines the Probability required.
Now if we want a Corredion by means of the fecond Term
we fhall find ^j^; — n:= .00002081, which Term being fo very
inconfiderable may be entirely rejeded, and much more all the
following.
Confidering therefore that when the Arc — is fmall the firft
Term alone is fufficient for a near approximation, it will not be
amifs to inquire what muft be the number of Games that fliall
make it an equal Probability of the Play's being ended in that num
ber of Games J which to do,
F f Suppofe
21 8 The Doctrine 6/" Chances.
Suppofe —^ — X  = 7, hence 4^+' = C/*, then fup
pofing p a large number, whereby the number n muft be ftill
much larger, we may barely take for our Equation 4^ = />C, then
taking the Logarithms, we fliall have Log. 4 + « Log. c = Log. C
i Log. /), let the magnitude of the Arc — be fuppofed = z ;
now fince the number p has been fuppofed very large, it follows
that the Arc s muft be very fmall ; wherefore the Sine of that Arc
will alfo be nearly = z, and its Cofine i ^zz nearly, of which
Cofine the Logarithm will be — ^zz nearly ; we have therefore
the Equation Log. 4 — ^nzz. = Log. p j Log. z ; let now the Mag
nitude of an Arc of 90'', to a Radius equal to Unity, be = M,
hence we fhall have — — = 2;, and Log. z ^=. Log. M — Log. p^
wherefore the Equation will at laft be changed into this, Log. 4
>_ i!^= Log. M, and therefore n = ^ '"■ \ ; '°'^ ^ . X//.
^^^ ^'^s4— j'pg M __ 0.756 nearly, and therefore n = 0.756//'.
N. B. The Logarithms here made ufe of are fuppofed to be Hy
perbolic Logarithms, of which I hear a Table will foon be pub
liflied. ■
Mr. (fe Monmort in the fecond Edition of his Tracfl, Des jeux de
Hazard^ tells us that he found that if p denoted an odd number of
Stakes to be won or loft, making —^ z=zj, that then the Quan
tity 'iff— 3/I I would denote a number of Games wherein there
would be more than an equal Probability of the Play's being ended ;
but at the fame time he ov/ns, that he has not been able to find a
Rule like it for an even number of Stakes.
Whereupon I fliall obferve, Jirjl, that his Exprefilon may be
reduced to ~pp \ ~ . Which tho' near the Truth in fmall
numbers, yet is very defedive in large ones, for it may be proved that
the number of Games found by his Exprelfion, fat from being above
what is requifite, is really below it. Secondly, that his Rule does not
err more in an even number of Stakes than in an odd one ; but that
Rule being founded upon an indudion gathered from the Solution of
feme of the fimpleft Cafes of this Problem, it is no wonder that he
reftrained it to the odd Cafes, he happening to be miftaken in deter
mining
The Doctrine ^Chances. 219
mining the number of Games requifite to make it an even Wager
that twelve Stakes would be won or loft before or at the expiration
of thofe Games, which he finds by a very laborious calculation to
have been 122; in which however he was afterwards redified by
Mr. Nicolas Bernoulli, who informed him that he had found by his
own Calculation that the number of Games requifite for that purpofe
was above 108, and below iio; and this is exaftly conformable to
our Rule, for multiplying pp 7= 144 by 0.756, the Produ(ft will
be 108.864.
For a Proof that his Rule falls fhort of the Truth, let us fuppofe
p = 45, then/will be =: 23, and ^Jjf — 3/4" ^ will be = 1519,
let us therefore find the Probability of the Play's terminating in
that number of Games; but we have found by th'S lxviii'*' Pro
blem, that the Probability of the Play's not terminating in that
number of Games is 0.50559 ; and therefore the Probability of its
terminating within them is 0.49441; which being lefs than — ,
{hews 'tis not more than an equal Wager that the Play would be
terminated in 151 9 Games.
But farther, let us fee what number of Games would be neceffary
for the equal wager, then multiplying 2025 fquare of 45 by 0.756,
the Product will be 1530.9 ; which fhews that about 1531 Games
are requifite for it.
PROBLEM LXIX.
'I%e Jame things being given as in the preceding Problem,
except that now the ratio of 3. t oh is fuppofe d of inequa
lity, to fohe the fame by the Si?2es of Arcs.
Solution.
Let n reprefent the number of Games given, /; the number of
Stakes to be won or loft on either fide, let alfo A be the Semi
circumference of a Circle whofe Radius is equal to Unity : let C,
D, E, F, &c. be the Sines of the Arcs — , —  , ^^^— , — , &c.
till the Semicircumference be exhaufted ; let alfo c, d, e,/, &c. be
the refpedive verfed Sines of thofe Arcs ; let  . . ^^ be made = L,
ri"
^' :=/, ^=r; letc, 2r : : CC, w; d, zr :: DD, ^r;
F f 2 e.
2 20 T*Ih Doctrine o/'Chances.
(f, 2r : : EE, f, &c. then the Probability of the Play not ending in
« Games will be exprefled by the following Series
^ T
the whole to be multiplied by
Lpr
p\r
As there are but few Tables of Sines, wherein the Logarithms of
the verfed Sines are to be found, it will be eafy to remedy that in
convenlency, by adding the Logarithm of 2 to the excefs of twice
the tabular Logarithm of the Sine of half the given Arc above 10 ;
for that Sum will give the Logarithm of the verfed Sine of the whole
Arc.
It will be eafily perceived that inftead of referring the Arcs to the
Divifion of the Semicircumference, we might have referred them to
the Divifion of the Quadrant, as in the Cafe of the preceding Problem.
Of the Summation of recurring Series.
The Reader may have perceived that the Solution of feveral Pro
blems relating to Chance depends upon the Summation of Series ; I
have, as occafion has offered, given the Method of fumming them
up ; but as there are others that ma.y occur, I think, it neceffary to
give a fummary View of what is moft requifite to be known in this
matter ; defiring the Reader to excufe me, if I do not give the De
monftrations, which would fwell this Trad: too much ; efpecially
conlidering that I have already given them in my Mlfcellanea Ana
lytica.
I call that a recurring Series which is io conftituted, that having
taken at pleafure any number of its Terms, each following Term
fhall be related to the fame number of preceding Terms, according
to a conftant law of Relation, fuch as the following Series
A B C D E F
In which the Terms being re/pedively reprefented by the Capitals
A, B, C, D, &c. we fhall have
D = 3CAr — zExx ■\ fA.v^
E = 3 Dx — zCxx \ ^^x^
F = 3EA' — zDxx j 5Cx^
&c.. Now
The Doctrine o/" Chances. 221
Now the Quantities 3^ — 2xx\t^x^, taken together and con
nedled with their proper Signs, is what I call the Index, or the Scale
of Relation ; and fometimes the bare Coefficients 3 — 2  5 are
called the Scale of Relation.
Proposit ion I.
If there be a recurring Series a \ bx \ cxx \ dx"^ \ ex*, &c.
of which the Scale of Relation bey3i: — gxx ; the Sum of that Series
continued i?2 injinitum will be
a\bx
—fox
i — fo^gx>i
Proposition II.
Suppofing that in the Series a  bx \ cxx •\ dx^ \ ex*, &c.
the Law of Relation he fx — gxx ■\ hx^ ; the Sum of that Series
continued in infinitum will be
a •\ bx  cxx
— fax — Jbxx
] gaxx
I — fx 4" gxx — hx'''
Proposition III.
Suppofing that in the Scries, a { bx  cxx, &c. the Law of Re
lation hejx — gxx \ hx'" — kx*, the Sum of the Series will be
a\ bx j cxx  dx^
— fox — fbxx — fcx^
{ gaxx \ gbx'^
— bax'i
I — fx \ gxx — bx'^ \ kx*
As the Regularity of thofe Sums is confpicuous, it would be need
lefs to carry them any farther.
Still it is convenient to know that the Relation being given, it will
be cafy to obtain the Sum by obferving this general Rule.
1 °, Take as many Terms of the Series as there are parts in the
Scale of Relation.
2°, Subtrad: the Scale of Relation from Unity, and let the re
mainder be called the Differential Scale.
1%, MuL
22 2 7/;^ Doctrine (t/* Chances.
3°, Multiply thofe Terms which have been taken in the Series
by the Differential Scale, beginning at Unity, and fo proceeding or
derly, remembering to leave out what would naturally be 'extended
beyond the laft of the Terms taken.
Then the Produdl will be the Numerator of a Fradion exprefling
the Sum, of which the Denominator will be the Differential Scale.
Thus to form the preceding Theorem,
Multiply a \l>x ■] cxx \ dx'^
^y I — f^ \'' S^^ — '^■^' • • •
and beginning from Unity, we (hall have
a\ bx \ cxx \ dx'^
— fax — Jbxx — fcx"^ ...
L gaxx \ gbx^ . . .
— hax'^ . . .
omitting the fuperfluous Terms, and thus will the Numerator be
formed ; but the Denominator will be the Differential Scale, viz.
1 — Jx \ gxx — •bx'i \ kx^.
Corollary.
If the firft Terms of the Series arc not taken at pleafure, but be
gin from the fecond Term to follow the Law of Relation, in fo
* much that
b fhall he:=fa
c —fb—ga
d ^=^fr — gb ■\ ha
&c.
then the Fradion expreffmg the Sum of the Series will have barely
the firil Term of the Series for its Numerator.
Proposition IV.
If a Series is fo conftituted, as that the laft Differences of the
Coefficients of the Terms whereof it is compofed be all equal to no
thing, the Law of the Relation will be found in the Binomial
1 — x^ " , n denoting the rank of thofe laft Differences ; thus fup
pofing the Series
A B C D E F G
\\ ^x ■\ loxx + zox'^ + SS'^* +■ 56.V5 f 84^^ &c.
whereof the Coefficients are,
I 14
'Jthe Doctrine <?/■ Chances. 223
144+10 420 i35 +56 I 84
i*"' Differences   3 + 6 +10 +15 j 21 428
2'' Differences 3 +4 i5 +6 I7
3'' Differences if"i "hi "("'
4''' Differences  — o +0 +0
I fay that the Relation of the Terms will be found in the Binomial
I — x^ *, which being expanded will be i — \x j bxx — \x'^ ~x+
and is the Differential Scale, and therefore the Scale properly fo cal
led will be 4X — bxx  4x3 — x'' j thus, in the foregoing Series,
the Term
G r=r 4FX — 6EArx 4" 4^x5 — iCx''.
Corollary.
The Sums of thofe infinite Series which begin at Unity, and
have their Coefficients the figurate numbers of any order, are
always expreffible by the Fradion ^. , wherein p denotes the
rank or order which thofe figurative numbers obtain ; for Inftanc>. if
we take the Series
I f IX  ixx Ar \x^ j IX'' j i>^' 1 i^^, &c. which is a geo
metric Progreffion, and whofe Coefficients are the numbers of the
firft order, the Sum will be — ^ — , and if we take the Series
I X
I ] 2x } Z^^ + 4'^'^ \ S^^ + 6a'5 + 7^^ &c. whofe Coefficients
compofe the numbers of the fecond order, the Sum will be v, •
and again, if we take the Series i +3x 6xx } Jox^ j i5x%
&c, whofe Coefficients are the numbers of the third order, other
wife called Triangular numbers, the Sum will be "^=^7^" •
Proposition V.
The Sum of any finite number of Terms of a recurring Series
a [ bx j rxx f dx^ ] ^x''^, &c. is always to be obtained.
Thus fuppofing the Scale of Relation to be fx — ^xx ; 71 the
number of Terms whofe Sum is required; and ax' j' /3x''+' the
two Terms which would next follow the laft of tlie given Terms, if
the Series was continued ; then the Sum will be
a ^bx — x" X a  /3x
— fax — /ax
1 — y3c _ ^xx
But
2 24 ^^ Doctrine <?/" Chances.
But if the Scale of Relation be fx — gxx f hx^, n the number
of Terms given, and ax'' j /3\" + ' 4y^''"'"S the three Terms that
would next follow the kft of the given Terms, then the Sum will be
a ^bx \ cxx — X" X « { jGa:  yxx
— fax — fbxx — jocx — //3x
 gaxx ^gaxx
\ —. fx \ gxx — hx^
The continuation of which being obvious, thofe Theorems need
not be carried any farther.
But as there is a particular elegancy for the Sums of a finite num
ber of Terms in thofe Series v/hofe Coefficients are figurate num
bers beginning at Unity, I fliall fet down the Canon for thofe Sums.
Let n denote the number of Terms whofe Sum is to be found,
and p the rank or order which thofe figurate numbers obtain, then
the Sum will be
» , n
vx w . wfI . .r
. »+ 2 .
— I
n
X
1 . z .7^7)?
n . »+ 1 . n\ 2 . » 4 3
, &C.
3 .T^rP^/' — 3 1.2.3 4 • I— ^^4
which is to be continued till the number of Terms be =p.
Thus fuppofing that the Sum of twelve Terms of the Series,
I \ 3X \ txx \ 10x3  i^x*, &c. were demanded, that Sum
will be
~rrz\^
Proposition VI.
In a recurring Series, any Term may be obtained whofe place is
affigned.
It is very plain, from what we have fuid, that after having taken
fo many Terms of the Series as there is in the Scale of Relation,
the Series may be protrafted till it reach the place affigned ; however
if that place be very dirtant from the beginning of the Scries, the •
continuation of thofe Terms may prove laborious, efpecially if there
be many parts in the Scale.
But there being frequent Cafes wherein that inconveniency may
be avoided, it will be proper to fhew by what Rule this may be
known ; and then to fliew how we are to proceed.
The Rule'will be to take the Differential Scale, and to fuppofe it
— o, then if the roots of that fuppofed Equation be all real, and
unequal, the thing may be effedted as follows. Let the Series be re
prefented by ^ + ^'"
7he Doctrine c/Chai\ces. 225
aArbr \crr j dr^ j er*, &c.
and 1° i(fr — grr be the Scale of Relation, and confequently i — ff
y E^^ the differential Scale, then having made i — Jr \ grr =. o ;
multiply the Terms of that Scale refpedively by xXy x, i, (o as to
have XX — frx \ grr =r. o, let m and p be the two roots of that
Equation, then having; made A = ■ ' ~ T and B z= ■■■ '""""'  , and
^ ' o m —p p — m '
fuppofing / to be the interval between the firfl Term and the place
affigned, that Term will be Am' \ Bp'.
Secondly, If the Scale of Relation be fr — grr ^ hr^, make
I — fr \ grr — /6r3 = o, the Terms of which Equation being
multiplied refpedtively by x\ xx, x, i, we fhall have the new E
quation x'^ — frxx f grrx — hr^ = 0, let m, p, q be the roots of
that Equation, then having made A = '" — ,^ ^ '' ''" ,
p err — "'\ '/ X ir \ mqa _ err — /' f" "» X ^r + mqa
p — rn x p — q ' q — m^q — p »
And fuppofing as before / to be the Interval between the firfl: Term
and the Term whofe place is afligned, that Term will be Km' j
Bp' 1 Cq'.
'thirdly. If the Scale of Relation be fr — grr j hr^ — kr^
make i — fr U grr — hr'^ ■\ kr^ = o, and multiply its Terms
refpedively by x^, x\ xx, x, i, fo as to have the new Equation
JC+ — frx^ \ grrx'' — hr'x f ^^* = o, let w, />, q, f, be roots of
that Equation, then having made
^ dri —f^q\.f X err +pq + p/+qf>i br — pq/ ■><■ a
'" — p X ni — q x "1 ■ — f
p tir'i — q + / + g; X err \ qf\ am ^ Jm v ^ r — pfm v <7
■ q y p — / y p ■
— , Jri — / + 7/; 4 ;/ X err +Jm\/fj \ mp X br — fmp x a
q — / X q — "I •< Q — P
— . dri — m \ p^ q V err  ?7ip  \ rr.g + fq \ hr — nipff y a
f— m xj — p X. I — q
then, flill fuppofing / to be the Interval between the firfl; Term and
the Term whofe place is afligned, that Term will be hm' j Bp' \
Altho' one may by a narrow infpedion perceive the Order of thofc
Theorems, it will not be amifs to exprefs them in words at length.
General Rule.
Let the Roots ;;;, p, q, f, &cc. determined as above, be called re
G g fpedtively.
2 26 Tlje Doctrine <?/ Chances.
fpedively, firft, fecond, third, fourth Root, &c. let there be taken
as many Terms of the Series beginning from the firft, as there are
parts in the Scale of Relation : then multiply in an inverted order,
I °, the laft of thefe Terms by Unity j 2°, the laft but one by
the Sum of the Roots wanting the firfl: ; 3", the laft but two, by
the Sum of the Products of the Roots taken two and two, exclud
ing that produdl wherein the firft Root is concerned j 4°, the laft
but three, by the Sum of the Produds of the Roots taken three
and three, ftill excluding that Product in which the firft Root is
concerned, and fo on ; then all the feveral parts which are thus ge
nerated by Multiplication being connefted together by Signs alter
nately politive and negative, will compofe the Numerator of that
Fraction to which A is equal ; now the Numerator of that Fradlion
to which B is equal will be formed in the fame manner, excluding
the fecond Root inftead of the firft, and fo on
As for the Denominators, they are formed in this manner: From
the firft Root fubtradl feverally all the others, and let all the remain
ders be multiplied together, and the Produdl will conftltute the De
nominator of the Fradlion to which A is equal ; and in the fame
manner, from the fecond Root fubtradting all the others, let all the
remainders be multiplied together, and the Produdl will conftitute
the Denominator of the Fradion to which B is equal, and fo on
for the Reft.
Corollary i.
If the Series in which a Term is required to be afligned, be the
Quotient of Unity divided by the differential Scale i — jr ^ grr —
hr'^ \ kr*, multiply the Terms of that Scale refpeftively by ^,
x3, AT*, X, I, fo as to make the firft Index of x equal to the laft of
r, then make the Produdl at* — frx^ j grrxx — hr^x \ kr'* to
be = o. Let as before w, p, q, J, be the Roots of that Equation,
let alfo z be the number of thofe Roots, and / the Interval between
the firft Term, and the Term required, then make
Z — I
q— m y. q — py.q — f j — m f. f — p % f 
and the Term required will be Aw' ^ B/>' ■\ Cy' J Tiq' ; and the
Sun\ of the Terms will be
Ax
The Doctrine (?/'Chances. 227
Ax '" tBx i::^— + Cx '^ +Dx^^.
It is to be obferved, that the Interval between the firft Term and the
Term required is always meafured by the number of Terms want
ing one, fo that having for Inftance the Terms, a, b, c, d, e, f,
whereof a is the firft and / the Term required, the Interval be
tween a andy is ^, and the Number of all the Terms 6.
Corollary 2.
If in the recurring Series a \ br \ err ■\ dr^ } fr*, &c. where
of the Differential Scale is fuppofed to be i — fr\ grr — Zr' \
/&r+, we make x^ — fxr^ f grrxx — hr^x  kr^ = o, and that
the Roots of that Equation be m, p, q, f, and that it fo happen that
fo many Terms of the Series a ■\ br \ err \ dr^ f er^, &c. as
there are Roots, be every one of them equal to Unity, then any
Term of the Series may be obtained thus ; let / be the Interval be
tween the firft Term and the Term required, make
P X I — yxi — / T) I — y XI 7x1
A 1 — p X I — yxi — / T> ' — y X I
m — p x. m — q \ m — f p — y x p — ,/ x p — m
p, 1 — /x 1 — CT X I — p pj I — mx I — p X I — 7
q — y"x q — m y. q — /> ' / — m x / — p x / — q
and the Term required will be Ajji^  Bp' \ Qq { W
Proposition VII.
If there be given a recurring Series whofe Scale of Relation is
fr — grr, and out of that Series be compofed two other Series,
whereof the firft fhall contain all the Terms of the Series given
which are pofited in an odd place, and the fecond ftiall contain all
the Terms that are pofited in even place ; then the Scale of Relation
in each of thefe two new Series may be obtained as follows :
Take the differential Scale i — Jr \ grr, out of which compofe
the Equation xx — frx Y grr = o ; then making xx r= x, expunge
the Quantity x, whereby the Equation will become 2 — fr\/ •z\
grr = 0, or z \ grr ^= fr \/ z ; and fquaring both parts, to take
away the Radicality, we fliall have the new Equation zz \ 7grrz
■\ ggr* = fj^f^y or zz j zgrrz \ ggr* = o ; and dividing its
Terms refpedively by zz, z, i, we fliall have a new differential
Scale for each of the two new Series into which the Series given
was divided, which will be i  2grr ■\ ggr* : and this being ob
— ffrr
G g 2 tained,
228 'The Doctrine c*/' Chances.
tained, it is plain from our firji Propojitlon, that each of the two
new Series may be fummed up.
But if the Scale of Relation be extended to three Terms,
fuch as the Scale Jr — grr { hr^, then the differential Scale for
each of the two Series into which the Series given may be fuppofed
to be divided, will be i — Jfrr — 2fhr^ — hhr'', whereby it ap
J^ 2grr \ ggr^
pears that each of the two new Series may be fummed up.
If inftead of dividing the Series given into two Series, we di
vide it into three, whereof the firfl fliall be compofed of the
i""', 4*'', 7'^', 10''', &;c. Terms; the fecond of the
^i^ 5''', 8''', 11''', &c. Terms; the third of the
3'', 6''', 9'^, la'"", &c. Terms; and that the Scale of Re
lation be fuppofed fr — grr ; then taking the differential Scale
1 — ff'\ grr, and having out of it formed the Equation xx —
Jrx 4" grr = o, fuppofe a.' =r 2 ; let now x be expunged, and
the Equation will be changed into this zz \ ifgr'^z ■\ gr^ z=. o,
— pr'z
of which the Terms being divided refpedively by zz^ z, i, we
fliall have a differential Scale 1 — fr^ \ gV^, which will ferve
for every one of the three Series into which the Series given is di
vided ; and therefore every one of thofe three Series may be fummed
up, by help of the two firfl Terms of each.
If the Scale of Relation be compofed of never fo many parts,
ftill if the Series given be to be divided into three other Series; from
the fuppofition of V being made = z, will be derived a Scale of
Relation for the three parts into which the Series given is to be di
vided.
But if the Series given was to be divided into 4, 5, 6, 7, &c.
Series given, fuppofe accordingly x'^ = 2;, x^ =^ z, x^ = z, x'^ =z z,
&:c. and x being expunged by the common Rules of Algebra, the
Scale of Relation will be obtained for every one of the Series into
which the Series given is to be divided.
Proposition VIII.
If there be given two Series, each having a particular Scale of
• Relation, and that the correfponding Terms of both Series be added
together, fo as to compofe a third Series, the differential Scale for
this third Series will be obtained as follows.
Let
'Th& Doctrine <^Chances. 229
Let I — fr \ grr be the differential Scale of the firft, and
1 — mr  frr, the differential Scale of the fecond ; let thofe two
Scales be multiplied together, and the Produd i — m •\ f y.r
\ p y g \~ "if ^ ^'^ — '''^ \ pf Xr^ \ pg X r*, will exprefs the
differential Scale of the Series refulting from the addition of the
other two.
And the fame Rule will hold, if one Series be fubtraded from
the other.
Proposition IX.
If there be given two recurring Series, and that the correfpond
ing Terms of thofe two Series be multiplied together, the differen
tial Scale of the Series refulting from the Multiplication of the other
two mav be found as follows.
Suppofe I — fr  grr to be the differential Scale of the firft, and
I — ma Ar paa the differential Scale of the fecond, fo that the firft
Series fhall proceed by the powers of r, and the fecond by the
powers of a ; imagine thofe two differential Scales to be Equations
equal to nothing, and both r and a to be indeterminate quantities ;
make ar^=z, and now by means of the three Equations, i — fr
\ grr = 0, I — j}ja \ paa =0, ar:= z, let both a and r be
expunged, and the Equation refulting from that Operation will be
I ^fmz ■\ffpzz ^fgmpz' f ggppz^ = o
j mmgzz
— 2g[>ZZ
or I — fmar \ ffpar^ — fgmpa^r^ } ggppa'^r'^ =r o
 mmga^r
— 2gpa'^r'^
by fubftituting ar in the room of z ; and the Terms of that Equa
tion, without any regard to their being made =: o, which was
purely a fidlion, will exprefs the differential Scale required : and in
the fame manner may we proceed in all other more compound
Cafes.
But it is very obfervable, that if one of the differential Scales be
the Binomial i — a raifed to any Power, it will be fufficient to
raife the other differential Scale to that Power, only fubftituting
ar for r, or leaving the Powers of r as they are, if a be reftrained
to Unity ; and that Power of the other differential Scale will confti
tute the differential Scale required.
Sotng
230 T^s Doctrine 0/ Chances.
^ome Ufes of the foregoing Propofitiom.
We have feen in our lviii'*' Problem, that if two Adverfaries,
whofe proportion of Skill be as a to b, play together till fuch time
as either of them wins a certain number of Stakes, fuch as 4 for
inftance, the Probability of the Play's not ending in any given num
ber of Games will be determined by
^. for 4 Games.
^ •'T,x6 lor 6 Games.
« + ">
==N8 lOJ" o Games.
— , „o for 10 Games.
a + b \
^  ^rv.J for 12 Games.
a\b\
&C.
Wherein it is evident that each Term in each of the three Columns
written above is referred to the two preceding by a conftant Scale
of Relation, fo that if the Terms of the firft Column which are
iaH \ia*l>/> 4^a'ti ib^a^i* i;(oal>< r o
l^JV' ZW' ^TTV' M^TT IT^^ ' ^^' b^ refpedlive
ly called E, F, G, H, K, &c. and that for fliortnefs fake we fuppofe
= r, we (hall find G = ^rF — 2rrE, H = 4rG — 2rrF,
ab
and To on ; and therefore confidering the Sum of every three Terms
whereby each Probability is exprefled as one fingle Term, and de
noting thofe Sums refpeftively by S, T, U, X, &c. we fhall find
U = 4rT — 2rrS, X = ^rV —  2rrT, and fo on ; from which
it follows that the Method of determining the Probability of the
Play's not ending in any number of Games given, is no more than
the finding of a Term in a recurring Series.
Let it therefore be required to find the Probability of 4 Stakes not
being loft in 60 Games , to anfwer this, let it be imagined that the
Probabilities of not ending in
o, 2, 4, 6, 8, ID 60 Games,
are exprefled by C, D, E, F, G, H, K refpedively ;
then calling / the number of Games given, it is evident that the
Term K is diftant from the Term C by an Interval r= — /, in this
Cafe = 30, the odd numbers being omitted, by reafon it is impofli
ble
!/:^£? Doctrine <j/ Chances. 231
ble an even number of Stakes fhould be won or loft exadly in an
odd number of Games : moreover it being a certainty that the Set
of 4 Stakes to be won or loft can neither be concluded before the
Play begins, nor when no more than two Games are played off, it
follows that the two Terms C, and D, are each of them equal to
Unity ; for which reafon, if out of the Scale of Relation ^r — 2rr,
or rather out of the differential Scale i — ^.r \ 2rr, we form the
Equation, xx — /^.rx \ 2rr = o, and that the roots of that Equa
tion be f?i and p, and then make A =. ^^~^ , B = ^_ J ' , the
two Terms alone Am ^ ] Bp^ ' will determine the Probability
required. This being conformable to Corollary 2^ of our vi''' Pro
portion, it will be proper to confult it.
But becaufe in higher Cafes, that is when the number of Stakes
to be won or loft is larger, it would fometimes be infinitely labori
ous to extradl the Roots of thofe Equations, it will be proper to
fhew how thofe Roots are adually to be found in a Table of Sines.
Of which to give one Inftance, let it be propofed to find the Pro
bability of the Play's not ending in any number of Games /, when
the number of Stakes to be won or loft is 6 •, then arguing in the
lame manner as in the preceding Cafe, let the Probabilities of the
Play's not being concluded in o, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 /Games
be refpedively D, E, F, G, H, K z; then
we may conclude that the three Terms D, E, F ftanding refpeftively
overagainft the number of Games o, 2, 4, are each of them equal
to Unity, it being a certainty that the Play cannot be concluded in
that number of Games. Wherefore having taken the differential
Scale I — 6r \ grr — 2r'^, which belongs to that number of Stakes 6,
and formed out of it the Equation at' — 6rxx f grfx — 2r^ z=z o,,
let the Roots of that Equation be denoted by w, p, q ; then making
A= jEZ^~ , B= ^ZL^"^^ , C== ^~^~P ^ the
m — f >. m — q f — ?x^ — m q — m ^i. q — f
I ~l I
Probability required will be km'"'  B/) + Cy
Now I fay that the Roots w, /», q of the Equation above written,
may be derived from a Table of Sines ; for if the Semicircumfe
rence of a Circle whofe Radius is 2r, be divided into 6 equal parts,.
and we take the Coverfed Sines of the Arcs that are ^ , t , —
' 6 ' o
of the Semicircumference, fo that the Numerators of thofe Frac
tions be all the odd numbers contained in 6, thofe Coverfed Sines
willi
232 I'be Doctrine <?/" Chances.
will be the Values of w, f^ q, and the Rule is general and ex
tends to all Cafes ; Itill it is obfervable that when the number of
Stakes is odd, for Inftancc 9, we ought to take only — , — , — ,
■^ of the Semicircumference, and rciedt the lafl: Term — ex
prefling the whole Semicircumference.
But what ought chiefly to recommend this Method is, that fup
pofing m to be the greateft Coverfcd Sine, the firft Term alone
/
hm^ will give a fufficient approximation to the Probability re
quired, efpecially if / be a large number in itfelf, and it be alfo
large in refpeft to the number of Stakes.
Still thele Rules would not be eafily pradicable by reafon of the
great number of Fadlors which might happen to be both in the
Numerator and Denominator to which A is fuppofed equal, if I
had not, from a thorough infpedtion into the nature of the Equations
which determine the Values of ;«, p, q, Sec. deduced the following
Theorems.
1', If n reprefents the number of Stakes to be won or loft,
whether that number be even or odd, then the Numerator of the
Fradlion to which A is equal, 'viz. 1 — px 1 — qx 1 — fx i — t,
'"4 I"
&c. will always be equal to the Fradion   , — . > and in the
fame manner that the Numerator of the Fradion to which B is equal,
viz. I — y X I — /X I — t, &CC. will always be equal to the Fradion
" ■  — == , and fo on.
2°, If n be an even number, and that m be the right Sine
correfponding to the Coverfed Sine m; t hen the Denominator of
the Fradion to which A is equal, viz. m — p x m — q X tn — fx m — /,
—n
&c. will always be equal to the Fradion —, ; and in the fame
manner if p reprefent the right Sine belonging to the Coverfed
Sine />, then the De nomina tor of the Fradion to which B is equal,
•viz. p — q y.p — J\p — t, &c. will always be equal to the Fradion
I
—71
, — , and fo on.
3°, If 72 be an odd number, and that in be, as before, the right
Sine correfponding to the Coverfed Sine ni; then the Denomi
nator
'The Doctrine<?/"Chances. 233
n
nr
ill
nator of the Fradion to which A is equal will be  ^^^^^^ > and
the Denominator of the Fradlion to which B is equal will be
I
—n
Corollary
From all which it follows, that the Method of determining the
Probability of a certain number n of Stakes not being loft in a given
number / of Games, may be thus exprcffed.
Let L be fuppofed = "^^^^l , and r ==y , then that
Probability will be
into X m — ^ —  ^p
n
I T — m I — p i — p ^ — f
&c. when n is an even number, or
/— j_ /— I /M '— i
L . tn ^ tn 2 p' \J p 2 , q si q 2. s\ . "7"
into x;« — ' — —y.p \ y.q
J.„ I — m i—p ^ ' I — q ^ \—s
&c. when n is an odd nnmber.
til 'ill 1/ 1/
But becaufe m '^ x s/m, p ^ x Jp, &c. are the fame zs m^ ,p
refpedtively, it is plain that both Cafes are reduced to one and the
fame Rule.
It was upon this foundation that I prefcribed the Rule to be fecn
in my lxix'*" Problem, wherein I did not diftinguifli the odd Cales
from the even.
But altho' the Rule there given feems fomewhat different from
what it is here, yet at bottom there is no difference ; it confifting
barely in this, that whereas 2r in this place is the Radius of the
Circle to which the Calculation is adapted, there it is Unity, and
that there the Coverfed Sines were expreffed by their Equivalents in
right Sines ; there was alfo this little difference, that the Denomi
nators 1 — m, I — p, &c. were expreffed by means of the verfed
Sines of thofe Arcs, to which m and p are coverfed Sines.
Other Variations might be introduced, fuch for inftance as might
arife from the confideration of Vwr, Jpr, &c. being the right
H h Sines
2 34 T^& Doctrine t/ Chances.
Sines of — the Complements to a Quadrant of the Arcs originally
taken.
But to fliew the farther ufe of thefe Series, it will be con
venient to propofe a Problem or two more relating to that Sub
je<a.
PROBLEM LXX.
M and N, nsohofe proportion of Chances to wi?i 07ie Game
are refpe&ively as a to b, refolve to play together till
one or the other has loji 4. Stakes : two Standers hyy
R and S, co7icern themfelves in the Play^ R takes the
Jide of M, and SofN, and agree betwixt thefn, that
^ JJjall fet to S, the Smn L to the Sum G on the frfl
Game^ 2L to 2G on the fecond^ 3L /o 3G on the thirdy
4L to 4G on the fourth^ and in cafe the Play be ?iot
then cojicltided^ 5L to 5G on the fifths and fo i?icrea
fng pe?'petually in /Arithmetic Progreffton the Sums
which they are to fet to 07te aitother^ as loiig as M and^
play ; yet with this farther condition^ that the SumSy
fet down by them R a?id S, pall at the e?td of each Game
be taken up by the Winner^ afid not left upon the Tabh
to he taken up at once upoji the Conclufton of the Play :
it is demanded how the Gain of R is to be eflimated be
fore the Play begins.
Solution.
Let there be fuppofed a time wherein the number /> of Games has
been played j then R having the number a of Chances to win the
Sum p Y 1 X G in the next Game ; and S having the number b of
Chances to win the Sum /> j i x L, it is plain that the Gain of
R in that circumftance ought to be eftimated by the quantity
^ f I X " '~  ^ ; but this Gain being to be eftimated before
the Play begins, it follows that it ought to be eftimated by the
quantity p \ lY. " ~^ — multiplied by the refpeilive Probability
there
l%e Doctrine (7/"Chances. 235
there is that the Play will not then be ended ; and therefore the
whole Gain of R is the Sum of the Probabilities of the Play g not
ending in o, i, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6cc. Games in infinitum, multiplied by
the refpedlive Values of the quantity /»  i x "^T^ , p being
interpreted fucceffively by the Terms of the Arithmetic Progrefiion,
o, I, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, &c. Now, let thefe Probabilities of the
Play's not ending be refpedively reprefented by A, B, C, D, E, F,
G, I, &c. let alfo the Quantity  J~^ ' be called S, and then
it will follow that the Gain of R will be expreffed by the Series
AS \ 2BS I 3CS 1 4DS 45ES + 6FS + 7GS, &c. but in this
Problem, altho' the Probabilities of the Play's not ending decreafe
continually, yet the number of Stakes being even, the Probability
of the Play's not ending in an odd number of Games is not lefs
than the Probability of not ending in the even number that imme
diately precedes the odd j and therefore B:=zA, D = C, F — E
I = G, &c. from whence it follows that the Gain of R will be ex
preffed by the produd: of S /';//(? 3A7CfiiE4i 5G  1 9I, &c.
but the differential Scale for the Series A j C  E j G, &c. is
I — 4r H zrr, wherein r is fuppofed =  ^T^, , and the diffe
rential Scale for the Series 374" ^^ ~l" '5"l" I9> &c. is i — i
3^13^^ — fl', wherein ^ = 1. And therefore the differential
Scale for the Series 3A47C1 uE, &c. confifting of the pro
duds of the Terms of one Series by the correfponding Terms of
the other, will be i — 4^1 2?7A% or i — 8r j 20;r — i6r' \
^r*; and therefore having written down the four firfl Terms of the
Series to be fummed up, viz. as many Terms wanting one as there are
in the differential Scale, multiply them in order by the differen
tial Scale according to the prefcription given in the Remark be
longing to our third Propofition, and the Produdl will be the Nu
merator of the Fraftion expreffing the Sum, of which Fradion the
Denominator will be i — 4; \ zrr^ *; But to make this the plainer,
here follows the Operation,
3Af 7Cf iiEf 15G
I — 8V \ zorr — i6r'
3AH 7CI iiE \ 15G
— 24rA— 56rC— 88rE .
■\6orrh\ i^orrC . .
— 48r'A.
II h 2 And
236 T^e Doctrine 0/" Chances.
And thus is the Numerator obtained : but A = j , it being a cer
tainty that the Play cannot be ended before it is begun, and C
is liicewife = i, it being a certainty that 4 Stakes cannot be loft
neither before nor at the expiration of 2 Ganaes ; but by the law of
Relation of the Terms of the Series, E = \rQ, — 2rrA, and G =::
4rE — 2rrC, and therefore the proper Subflitutions being made,
10 — ,6r :;Orr + 8r3
the Sum of the Series will be found to be S into — x— , + zrr\
and now in the room of S and r fubftituting their refpedtive Values
H^rr^"'^ TTTT tl^e Sum , + ^ tf^to
will exprefs the Gain of R.
Corollary i.
If the Stake L be greater than the Stake G, in the fame pro
portion as a is greater than 4 there can be no advantage on either
fide.
Corollary 2.
If rt and 6 arc equal, the Gain of 7? will be 216 times the half
difference between the Stakes G and L : thus if G ftands for a
Guinea of 21'* and L for 20/ the Gain of R will be 216 Six
pences, that is, 5^ — 8/^
Corollary 3.
If a be greater than I^, the Gain of R, according to that inequa
lity, will vary an infinite number of ways, yet not be greateft when
the proportion of d; to ^ is greateft ; fo that for Inftance, if the
proportion of a to /? is 2 to i, and G and L are equal, the Gain
of R will be about 29 G; but if « is to /^ as 3 to i, the Gain of
R will be no more than about 22 — G ; and if the proportion of a
to b be infinitely great, which would make R win infallibly, the
Gain of R will be only 10 G. But altho' this may feem at firft a very
ftrange Paradox, yet the reafon of it will eafily be apprehended from
this confideration, that the greater the proportion is of a to ^, fo
much the fooner is the Play likely to be concluded ; and therefore
if that proportion were infinite, the Play would neceffarily be ter
minated in 4 Games, which would make the Gain of 2?! to be i }
But
The Doctrine o/"Chances. 237
But if It was required what muft be the proportion of ^ to 3 which
will afford to K the greateft advantage poffible, the anfwer will be
very near 2 to i, as maybe found eafily upon Trial; and maybe
found accurately by the Method which the Geometricians call de
Maximis & Minims.
PROBLEM LXXI.
If M and N, w/joje number of Chances to win one Game
are refpeSiively as a io b, p/aj together till four Stakes
are won or loji on either fide ; afid that at the fame
timey R and S whofe ?mmber of Cha?ices to win one
Game are refpeSiively as c to d, play alfo together till
fve Stakes are won or lofl on either fide ; what is the
Probability that the Play between M and N will be ended
in fewer Games ^ than the Play between R and S.
Solution.
The Probability of the firft Play's being ended in any number of
Games before the fecond, is compounded of the Probability of the
firft Play's being ended in that number of Games, and of the fe
cond's not being ended with the Game immediately preceding :
from whence it follows, that the Probability of the firft Play's end
ing in an indeterminate number of Games before the fecond, is the
Sum of all the Probabilities in infinitum of the firft Play's ending,
multiplied by the refpedlive Probabilities of the fecond's not beino
ended with the Game immediately preceding.
Let A, B, C, D, E, &c. reprefent the Probabilities of the firft
Play's ending in 4,6, 8, 10, 12, &c. Games rcfpedively ; let alfo
F, G, fl, K, L, &c. reprefent the Probabilities of the fecond's not
being cndcc' in 3, 5, 7, 9. 11, &c. Games refpecftively : hence, by what
we have laid down before, the Probability of the firft Play's end
ing before the fecond will be reprefented by the infinite Series AF
1 BG + CH + DK + EL, &c. Now to find the Law of Rela
tion in this third Series, we muft fix the Law of Relation in the
firft and fecond, which will be done by our tx"" Problem, it
being for the firft \r — 2rr, wherein r is fuppofed = ^ — ^r " ; and
becaufe, as we have obferved before, the Law of Relation in thofe
Series.
238 lie Doctrine <?/" Chances.
Scries which exprefs the Probability of not ending, is the fame as
the Law of Relation in the refpedlive Series which exprefs the Pro
bability of ending; it will alfo be found by the direftions given in
our Lx'*" Problem, that if we fuppofe ^~rr = w, the Law of
Relation for the fecond Series will be ^m — 5;;;^, and therefore
the Laws of Relation in the firll: and fecond Series will refpedively
be I — 4r \ zrr, i — 5//; \ ^mm. And now having fuppofed
thofe two differential Scales as Equations = o, and fuppofed alfo
rm^=.z, we fl:all find by the Rules delivered in our ix''' Propo
fition, that the Scale of Relation for the third Series will be i —
20Z ■\ I lozz — 20o,'23 \ looz'^ ; and therefore having taken the
four firft Terms of the third Series, and multiplied them by the
differential Scale, according to the proper Limitations prefcribed in
our 1 1 1'' Propofition, we fliall find the Sum of the third Series to
be
AF + BG +CH +DK
— 20AFG2;— 20BG2; — 20CH2;
 1 1 o AFsz { 1 1 cBGzz
— aooAFz^
1 2OZ j I I ox* — 200Z5 _j_ iQQz'^
a4 I (,*
Now fuppofing S to reprefent the Fradiion ' — t^v , the four Terms
A, B, C, D will be found to be iS \ 4^8 j i4rrS + 4813 S ; but
the four Terms F, G, H, K wherein S is not concerned will be
found to be i, 5/;/ — Sww, 20ww — ^^tn'^, J S'"^ — loow''; and
therefore the proper Subftitutions being made in the Sum above
written, we (hall have that Sum reduced to its proper Data ; and
that ^um thus reduced will exhibit the Probability required. But
becaufe thofe Data are many, it cannot be expedted that the So
lution fliould have fo great a degree of Simplicity as if we had re
flrairied a and ^ to a ratio of Equality, which if we had, the Pro
bability reqpired would have been exprefTed by the Fradion
,z — iozz ,~ ___ 1^^^ becaufe r has been fuppofed
1 — lOZ + I lO^S. 20Ca>  100~
L
=:r  L  — , it follows that r in this Cafe is ^=: — : and again,
a\b\ 4
becaufe ;;; has been fuppofed ==: ■— ^r , then m is alfo z= — ,
for which reafon rm or z=z ^ , for which reafon fubflituting
— ! inftcad of z, the Probability required will be exprefTed by the
Fraction
1*he Doctrine of Chances. 239
Fracftlon i^ : Now fubtraftins; this Fradion from Unity, the
remainder will be the Fradion ^^ , and therefore the Odds of
the firfl: Play's ending before the fecond will be 476 to 247, or
27 to 14 nearly.
PROBLEM LXXII.
A and B playing together^ and having an equal number
of Chances to win one Game^ engage to a SpeBator S
that after an even number of Games n is over^ the
Wi7iner fhall give him as many Pieces as he wins
Games over and above one half the number of Games
playedy it is demaftded how the Expe&atio?i of S is
to be determined.
Solution.
Let E denote the middle Term of the Binomial a\b raifed
to the Power 7/, then l — will exprefs the number of Pieces
2"
which the Spedator has a right to exped,
Thus fuppofing that A and B were to play 6 GameSj then rai
ling a ■\' b \.o the 6'*' Power, all the following Terms will be found
in it, 'u/z. a^ f ba'>b \ 1 S^'^bh \2oa^b' \ 1 ^aab'^ j 6ab^ + b''.
But becaufe the Chances which yi and B have to win one Game
have been fuppofed equal, then a and b may both be nude =r i,
which will make it that the middle Term E will be 20 ; there
fore this number being multiplied by «, that is in this Cafe
by 3, the Produd will be 60, which being divided by 2 or 2',
that is by 64, the Quotient will be ^ or — , and therefore the
Expedation of S is as good to him as if he had ~ of a Piece
given him, and for that Sum he might transfer his Right to an
other.
It will be eafy by Trial to be fatisfied of the Truth of this Con
clufion, for refuming the 6''' Power of a \ b, and confidering the
firft Term a^, which Oiews the number of Chances for A to win
6 times ; in which Cafe S would have 3 Pieces given him, then the
Expeda.
240 "The Doctrine (t/" Chances.
Expedation of S arifing from that profpedt is ^^^^—^^f > ^^^^ '^^ T" '
confidering next the Term ba^I^ which denotes the number of
Chances for A to win 5 times and lofing once, whereby he would
get two Games above 3, and confequently S get 2 Pieces, then the
Expedation of 5 arifing from that profpe(fl would be '}rrpi^' or
— ; laftly confidering the third Term 1 5 a*/>^ which fhews the nam
ber of Chances for A to get 4 Games out of 6, and confequently
for S to get I Piece, the Expedation of S arifing from that pro
fpedl would be ^^y" or ^ , the fourth Term aort^i^J would
afford nothing to 5, it denoting the number of Chances for A to
win no more than 3 Games ; and therefore that part of the Ex
pedation of S, which is founded on the Engagement of A to
him, would be — — '^ ^^"oT ' ^"^ ^^ expeds as much from
B, and therefore his whole Expedation [s ~ z= ~ as had been
before determined.
And in the fame manner, if A and B were to play 12 Games
the Expedation of S would be ^^ , which indeed is greater than
in the preceding Cafe, but lefs than in the proportion of the num
ber of Games played, his Expedation in this Cafe being to the for
mer as 5544 to ^840, which is very little more than in the propor
tion of 3 to 2, but very far from the proportion of 12 to 6, or 2
to 1.
And if we fuppofe flill a greater number of Games to be played
between A and B, the Expedation of S would flill increafe, but in
a lefs proportion than before ; for inftance, if A and B were to play
100 Games, the Expedation of S would be 3.9795 ; if 200, 5.6338 ;
if 300, 6.9041 ; if 400, 7.9738; if 5C0, 8.9161 ; if 700, 800, 900,
IO.CC2, 11.280, 11.965 refpedively, fo that in 100 Games the Ex
pedation of 5 would be in refped to that number of Games about
— , and in 900 Games that Expedation would not be above :rr •
Now how to find the middle Terms of thofe high Powers will be
fhewn afterwards.
Corollary,
From the foregoing confiderations, it follows, that if after taking
a great number of Experiments, it lliould be obferved that the hap
penings
Ihe Doctrine oJ Chances. 241
penlngs or failings of an Event have been very near a ratio of Equa
lity, it may fafely be concluded, that the Probabilities of its happen
ing or failing at any one time affigned are very near equal.
PROBLEM LXXIII.
A and B playing together^ and having a different num
ber of Chances to win one Game^ which number of
Chances I fuppofe to be refpetlively as a to b, engage
themf elves to a Spe&ator S, that after a certain nmn
ber of Games is over, A fhall give hitn as many Pieces
as he wins Ga?nes. over and above — vTn^ cind B as
' a\b '
many as he wins Gaines, over and above the numher
 , ; 71 ; to find the Expe&ation of S.
Solution.
Let E be that Term of the Binomial iiArb raifed to the Power w,
in which the Indices of the Powers of a and b (hall be in the lame ratio
to one another as « is to /^ ; let alfo p and q denote refpedlively thofe
Indices, then will the Expedtation of S from A and B together be
■ — ==r'E, or — — !— ^„ E from either of them in particular.
Thus fuppofing the number of Games n to be 6, and that the
ratio of rt to ^ is as 2 to i ; then that Term E of the Binomial a \ b
raifed to its 6'*^ Power, wherein the Indices have the fame ratio to
one another as 2 to i, is i i:,a'^b, and therefore ^ = 4, and 5 = 2 ;
and becaufe, ^, b, p, q, n are refpedtively 2, i, 4, 2, 6, thence the
Expeftation — ^f^ xE will be in this particular Cafe X240,
n^a\t,\ ^ 4374
640 o ,
or = — nearly.
But fuppofing that A and B refolve to play 1 2 Games, then that
Term of the Binomial a ■\ b raifed to its 1 z'*" Power, wherein the
Indices/" and ^ have the fame ratio as 2 to i, is 495^'*^*; and be
caufe the Quantities a, b, p, q, n, are refpeflively 2, i, 8, 4, 12, the
Expedlation of S will be — d^iZ. or ^ nearly.
And again, if A and B play ftill a greater number of Games, the
Expedfation of S will perpetually increafe, but in a lefs proportion
than of the number of Games played.
I i COROL
>42 7^^ Doctrine (p/* C HA NCES.
Corollary.
From this it follows, that if after taking a great number of Expe
riments, it fhould be perceived that the happenings and failing"^ have
been nearly in a certain proportion, fuch as of 2 to i, it may ijfely
be concluded that the Probabilities of happening or failing at .iny
one time afligned will be very near in that proportion, and that the
greater tlie number of Experiments has been, fo much nearer the
Truth will the conjedures be that are derived from them.
But fuppofe it fliould be faid, that notwithftanding the reafonable
nefs of building Conjedures upon Obfervations, flill confidering the
great Power of Chance, Events might at long run fall out in a dif
ferent proportion from the real Bent which they have to happen
one way or the other ; and that fuppofing for Inflance that an Event
might as eafily happen as not happen, whether after three thoufand
Experiments it may not be poffible it (liould have happened two thou
fand times and failed a thoufand ; and that therefore the Odds againft
fo great a variation from Equality fhould be affigned, whereby the
Mind would be the better difpofed in the Conclufions derived from
the Experiments.
In anfwer to this, I'll take the liberty to fay, that this is the
hardeft Problem that can be propofed on the Subjedl of Chance,
for which reafon I have referved it for the lafl, but I hope to be
forgiven if my Solution is not fitted to the capacity of all Readers ;
however I fhall derive from it fome Conclufions that may be of ufe
to every body : in order thereto, I fliall here tranflate a Paper of
mine which was printed November 12, 1733, and communicated
to fome Friend?, but never yet made public, referving to myfelf the
right of enlarging my own Thoughts, as occafion fhall require.
Novemb. 12, 1733.
A Me
'The Doctrine f?/" Chances. 243
A Method of approximating the Sum of the Terms
of the Binomial 2. \h\^' expanded into a Series,
from whence are deduced fome praclical Rules
to eJUmate the Degree of Ajfent which is to be
given to Experiments.
ALT HO' the Solution of Problems of Chanc e often requires
that feveral Terms of the Binomial a\b\ " be added to
gether, neverthelefs in very high Powers the thing appears
fo laborious, and of fo great difficulty, that few people have un
dertaken that Tafk j for befides James and Nicolas Bernoulli, two
great Mathematicians, I know of no body that has attempted it ;
in which, tho' they have fhewn very great ikill, and have the praife
which is due to their Induftry, yet fome things were farther re
quired ; for what they have done is not fo much an Approximation
as the determining very wide limits, within which they demonftrated
that the Sum of the Terms was contained. Now the Method which
they have followed has been briefly defcribed in my Mifcellanea Ana
lytical which the Reader may confult if he pleafes, unlefs they ra
ther chufe, which perhaps would be the beft, to confult what they
themfelves have writ upon that fubje^l: for my part, what made
me apply myfelf to that Inquiry was not out of opinion that I
fhould excel others, in which however I might have been forgiven ;
but what I did was in compliance to the defire of a very worthy
Gentleman, and good Mathematician, who encouraged me to it :
I now add fome new thoughts to the former ; but in order to make
their connexion the clearer, it is neceffary for me to refume fome few
things that have been delivered by me a pretty while ago.
I. It is now a dozen years or more fince I had found what fol
lows ; If the Binomial i j i be raifed to a very high Power de
noted by «, the ratio which the middle Term has to the Sum of
all the Terms, that is, to 2', may be exprefled by the Fradion
—, 7= , wherein A reprefents the number of which the Hy
» X t/ n— if •'
perbolic Logarithm is ^ ^ — A ! ^r— , &c. But be
» o i^ jco 1 1200 it8o '
I i 2 caufc
244 T'^^ Doctrine <?/' Chances.
caufe the Quantity ^^ — \ — or i !' is very nearly given when
« is a high Power, which is not difficult to prove, it follows
that, in an infinite Power, that Quantity will be abfolutely given,
and reprelent the number of which the Hyperbolic Logarithm is
— 1 ; from whence it follows, that if B denotes the Number of
which the Hyperbolic Logarithm is — i I ! ^l \ —
•' * '' ' \Z 3OO ' 1 2()0
&c. the Expreffion abovewritten will become — ~ — •
and that therefore if we change the Signs of that
Series, and now fuppofe that B reprefents the Number of which the
Hyperbolic Logarithm is i —^y^^ J____l_ , &c.
that Expreffion will be changed into ytT
"When I firft began that inquiry, I contented myfelf to determine
at large the Value of B, which was done by the addition of fome
Terms of the abovewritten Series ; but as I perceived that it con
verged but flowly, and feeing at the fame time that what I had done
anfwered my purpofe tolerably vvdl, I defiftcd from proceeding far
ther till my worthy and learned Friend Mr. James Stirling, who
had applied himfelf after me to that inquiry, found that the Quan
tity B did denote the Squareroot of the Circumference of a Circle
whole Radius is Unity, fo that if that Circumference be called c,
the Ratio of the middle Term to the Sum of all the Terms will be
exprefled by ^^ .
But altho' it be not neceffary to know what relation the number
B may have to the Circumference of the Circle, provided its value
be attained, either by purfuing the Logarithmic Series before men
tioned, or any other way j yet I own with pleafure that this dif
covery, befides that it has faved trouble, has fpread a lingular Ele
gancy on the Solution.
II. I alfo found that the Logarithm of the Ratio which the middle
Term of a high Power has to any Term diftant from it by an
Interval denoted by /, would be denoted by a ve ry near appr oxima
tion, (fuppofing m ■=^ n) by the Quantities m \ I — ~ X Log
„; _ / _ 1 _ ;?, — / [ 1 X Log. m — l\\ — 2w X Log. m 4
Log. ^
C O R L=
Tide Doctrine ^Chances. 245
Corollary i.
This being admitted, I conclude, that if m or ~n be a Quantity
infinitely great, then the Logarithm of the Ratio, which a Term
diftant from the middle by the Interval /, has to the middle Term, is
2//
Corollary 2.
The Number, which anfwers to the Hyperbolic Logarithm
zll . .
—, being
^ w ' znn On> "T~ 2inV xzon^ "• 720^* ' '
it follows, that the Sum of the Terms intercepted between the
Middle, and that whofe diftance from it is denoted by /, will be
— ; — into / ; T r A , &C.
»/nc ixin • 2x.^nn Oxyai ' 24x9;)+ izoxlinS'
Let now / be fuppofed =s^ny then the faid Sum will be ex
prcfled by the Series
—7— into / — ■— A — ■ r —^^ — , &c.
\/c J 3 ' 2x5 0x7 ' 24x9 1:0x11 '
Moreover, if /be interpreted by — , then the Series will become
into
L_. 1 — \ — I : \ 8,
»/c 2 3x4 ' 2x5x8 6x7x10 I 24x9x32 120x11x64'
which converges fo faft, that by help of no more than feven or
eight Terms, the Sum required may be carried to fix or feven places
of Decimals: Now that Sum will be found to be 0.427812, inde
pendently from the common Multiplicator ^ , and therefore to
the Tabular Logarithm of 0.427812, which is 9.6312529, adding
the Logarithm of 7^, v;z. 9.9019400, the Sum will be 19.533 1929,
to which anfwers the number 0.341344.
L E M MA.
If an Event be fo dependent on Chance, as that the Probabilities of
its happening or failing be equal, and that a certain given number //
of Experiments be taken to obferve how often it happens and fails,
and alfo that / be another given number, lefs than j/;, then the Pro
bability of its neither happening more frequently than ~n  /
times,.
246 lloe Doctrine o/" Chances.
times, nor more rarely than — « — / times, may be found as fol
lows.
Let L and L he two Terms equally diftant on both fides of
the middle Term of the Binomial i \ A " expanded, by an Inter
val equal to /; let alfo /" be the Sum of the Terms included between
L and L together with the Extreams, then the Probability required
will be rightly expreffed by the Fradlion ^ j which being founded
on the common Principles of the Dodtrine of Chances, requires no
Demonflration in this place.
Cor o l l ary 3.
And therefore, if it was poflible to take an infinite number of
Experiments, the Probability that an Event which has an equal
number of Chances to happen or fail, fhall neither appear more
frequently than n A^ —J n times, nor more rarely than —n —
— n/« times, will be expreffed by the double Sum of the number
exhibited in the fecond Corollary, that is, by 0.682688, and con
fequently the Probability of the contrary, which is that of hap
pening more frequently or more rarely than in the proportion above
affigned will be 0.3 173 12, thofe two Probabilities together com
pleating Unity, which is the meafure of Certainty: Now the Ratio
of thofe Probabilities is in fmall Terms 28 to 13 very near.
Corollary 4.
But altho' the taking an infinite number of Experiments be not
pradicable, yet the preceding Conclufions may very well be applied
to finite numbers, provided they be great : for Inftance, if 3600 Ex
periments be taken, make « = 36oo, hence n will be = 1800,
and V'^^ 30, then the Probability of the Event's neither
appearing oftner than 1830 times, nor more rarely than 1770,
will be 0.682688.
COROLL ARY 5.
And therefore we may lay this down for a fundamental Maxim,
that in high Powers, the Ratio, which the Sum of the Terms in
cluded between two Extreams diftant on both fides from the middle
Term by an Interval equal to  •Jn^ bears to the Sum of all
the
T%e Doctrine o/" Chances. 247
the Terms, will be rightly expreffed by the Decimal o 682688, that
is — nearly.
4; , /
Still, it is not to be imagined that there is any neceflity that the
number n fhould be immenfely great ; for fuppofing it not to reach
beyond the 900''' Power, nay not even beyondkthe 100''', the Rule
here given will be tolerably accurate, which I have had confirmed
by Trials.
But it is worth while to obferve, that fuch a fmall part as is —\ln
in rcfpedt to «, and fo much the lefs in refpedl to n as n increafes, does
very foon give the Probability ^ or the Odds of 28 to 13 ; from
whence we may naturally be led to enquire, what are the Bounds
within which the proportion of Equality is contained ? I anfwer,
that thefe Bounds will be fet at fuch a diftance from the middle
Term, as will be expreffed by  V 2« very near ; fo in the Cafe
above mentioned, wherein n was fuppofed =3600, —v'aw will
be about 21.2 nearly, which in refpeft to 3600, is not above
— ^th part : fo that it is an equal Chance nearly, or rather fome
thing more, that in 3600 Experiments, in each of which an Event
may as well happen as fail, the Excefs of the happenings or failings
above 1800 times will be no more than about 21.
Corollary 6.
If / be interpreted by k' n, the Series will not converge fo faft
as it did in the former Cafe when / was interpreted by — \/«, for
here no lefs than 12 or 13 Terms of the Series will afford a to
lerable approximation, and it would flill require more Terms, ac
cording as / bears a greater proportion to J n\ for which reafon I
make ufe in this Cafe of the Artifice of Mechanic Quadratures, firll:
invented by Sir Ijaac Neuion, and fince profecuted by Mr. Cotes,
Mr. James Stirling, myltlf, and perhaps others •, it confifls in de
termining the Area of a Curve nearly, from knowing a certain num
ber of its Ordinates A, B, C, D, E, F, &;c. placed at equal Intervals,
the more Ordinates there are, the more exad will the Quadrature
be ; but here I confine myfelf to four, as being fufficient for my
purpofe : let us therefore fuppofe that the four Ordinates are A, B,
C, D, and that the Diflance between the firfl and laft is denoted by
/. then
24^^ Tlje Doctrine •t/'Chances.
A t hen th e Ar ea con tained between the firfl and the lafl: will be
— — ^ — — X /; now let us take the Diftances o\/»,
^ n/ ;/, ^ v' ;/, ^J n, \'J >i, ^ v/ ;;, ~ V ;/, of which every one
exceeds the preceding byA/«, and of which the lafl; is V?;;
of thefe let us take the four lafl;, viz. —"J n, ^ "/ », •r^/«, — Vw,
then taking their Squares, doubling feach of them, dividing them
all by ;?, and prefixing to them all the Sign — , we fliall have
', —  , — , — — , which mufl; be looked upon as Hy
perbolic Logarithms, of which confequently the correfponding num
bers, u/z. 0.60653, 0.41 1 1 1, 0.24935, 0.13534 will ftand for the four
Ordinates A, B, C, D. Now having interpreted / by — v/ ;i, the
Area will be found to be t= 0.170203 xV», the double of which
being multiplied by — 7;^ , the produdt will be 0.27160 ; let there
fore this be added to the Area found before, that is, to 0.682688,
and the Sum 0.9,428 will ftiew what, after a number of Trials
denoted by ;;, the Probability will be of the Event's neither hap
pening oftner than 77 4 V« times, nor more rarely than —« — \/«,
and therefore the Probability of the contrary will be 0.04572 : which
fhews that the Odds of the Event's neither happening oftner nor more
rarely than within the Limits afligned are 2 i to i nearly.
And by the fame way of reafoning, it will be found that the Pro
bability of the Event's neither appearing oftner than jfi } j \/«,
nor more rarely than —n — v'?^ will be 0.99874, which will
make it that the Odds in this Cafe will be 369 to i nearly.
To apply this to particular Examples, it will be necefliiry to
eftimate the frequency of an Event's happening or failing by the
Squareroot of the number which denotes how many Experiments
have been, or are defigned to be taken ; and this Squareroot, ac
cording as it has been already hinted at in the fourth Corollary, will be
as it were the Modulus by which we are to regulate our Eftimation ;
and therefore fuppofe the number of Experiments to be taken is
•^600, and that it were required to affign the Probability of the
Event's neither happening oftner than 2850 times, nor more rarely than
1750, which two numbers may be varied at pleafure, provided they
be equally diftant from the middle Sum 1800, then make the half
difference
The Doctrine oJ Chances. 249
difference between the two numbers 1850 and 1750, that is, in this
Cafe, 5o=/V«; now having fuppofed 3600 = «, tlien \/« will
be ^ 60, which will make it that 50 will be = 60/, and confe
quently / = ^ = ^ j and therefore if we take the proportion,
which in an infinite power, the double Sum of the Terms cor
refponding to the Interval \'J n, bears to the Sum of all the
Terms, we fhall have the Probability required exceeding near.
Lemma 2 .
In any Power a\ 0^" expanded, the greateft Term is that in
which the Indices of the Powers of a and b^ have the fame propor
tion to one another as the Quantities themfelves a and b ; thus tak
ing the 10''' Power of a ■\ b^ which is a}° \ loa'^b \ \^a^b'^ j
izoa'b'i {• 2iort^M \ 252^5^5 _. zioa'^b^ ] lao^'^^ 4 \S^'^b^
•\ loab"^ A^ b^° ; and fuppofing that the proportion of a to /^ is as
3 to 2, then the Term ^\oa'b'^ will be the greateft, by reafon that
the Indices of the Powers of a and b^ which are iia that Term, are
in the proportion of 3 to 2 ; but fuppofing the proportion of ^ x.q b
had been as 4 to i , then the Term ^^^a^b" had been the greateft.
Lemma 3.
If an Event fo depends on Chance, as that the Probabilities of its
happening or failing be in any afligned proportion, fuch as may be
fuppofed of a to ^, and a certain number of Experiments be de
ligned to be taken, in order to obfcrve how often the Event will hap
pen or fail ; then the Probability that it fliall neither happen more
frequently than fo many times as are denoted by ^ { /, nor
more rarely than fo many times as are denoted by —^, /,
will be found as follows :
Let L and R be equally diftant by the Interval / from the greateft
Term ; let alfo S be the Sum of the Terms included between L and
R, together with thofe Extreams, then the Probability required will
be rightly exprefiJed by ■> ^ .
Corollary 8.
The Ratio which, in an infinite Power denoted by w, the greateft
Term bears to the Sum of all the reft, will be rightly expreffed by
K k the
250 Ithe Doctrine 6/" Chances.
a>rl>
tj abm
of a Circle for a Radius equal to Unity.
the Fradtion  "*"/  , wherein c denotes, as before, the Circumference
Corollary 9.
If, in an infinite Power, any Term be diftant from the Greatefl: by
the Interval /, then the Hyperbolic Logarithm of the Ratio which
that Term bears to the Greateft will be exprefled by the Fraction
— "'^abn ^^^' P'^ovi*^^^ ^he Ratio of / to « be not a finite Ratio,
but fuch a one as may be conceived between any given number p
and V «, fo that / be expreflible by /> V », in which Cafe the two
Terms L and R will be equal.
Corollary 10.
If the Probabilities of happening and failing be in any given Ratio
of inequality, the Problems relating to the Sum of the Terms of
the Binomial a '\ i " will be folved with the fame facility as thofe
in which the Probabilities of happening and failing are in a Ratio
of Equality.
Remark I.
From what has been faid, it follows, that Chance very little di
fturbs the Events which in their natural Inftitution were defigned to
happen or fail, according to fome determinate Law ; for if in order
to help our conception, we imagine a round piece of Metal, with
two polifhed oppofite faces, differing in nothing but their colour,
whereof one may be fuppofed to be white, and the other black ;
it is plain that we may fay, that this piece may with equal facility
exhibit a white or black face, and we may even fuppofe that it was
framed with that particular view of fhewing fometimes one face, fome
times the other, and that confequently if it be toffed up Chance fhall
decide the appearance ; But we have feen in our lxxii'' Problem,
that altho' Chance may produce an inequality of appearance, and
flill a greater inequality according to the length of time in which it
may exert itfelf, yet the appearances, either one way or the other,
will perpetually tend to a proportion of Equality : But befides, we
have feen in the prefent Problem, that in a great number of Experi
ments, fuch as 3600, it would be the Odds of above 2 to i, that
cne of the Faces, fuppofe the white, (hall not appear more frequently
than 1830 times, nor more rarely than 1770, or in other Terms,
that
The Doctrine ^Chances. 251
that it fliall not be above or under the pcrfedl Equality by more than
■7^ part of the whole number of appearances; and by the fame
Rule, that if the number of Trials had been 14400 inftead of 3600,
then ftill it would be above the Odds of 2 to j, that the appearances
either one way or other would not deviate from perfedt Equality
by more than ^ part of the whole : and in looooco Trials it
would be the Odds of above 2 to i, that the deviation from perfedl
Equality would not be more than by ~^ part of the whole. But
the Odds would increafe at a prodigious rate, if inftead of taking
fuch narrow limits on both fides the Term of Equality, as are re
prefented by ^ V », we double thofe Limits or triple them ; for in
the firft Cafe the Odds would become 21 to i, and in the fecond
369 to I, and ftill be vaftly greater if we were to quadruple them,
and at laft be infinitely great ; and yet whether we double, triple or
quadruple them, ^c. the Extenfion of thofe Limits will bear but an
inconfiderable proportion to the whole, and none at all, if the whole
be infinite ; of which the reafon will eafily be perceived by Mathema
ticians, who know, that the Squareroot of any Power bears fo much
a lefs proportion to that Power, as the Index of it is great.
What we have faid is alfo applicable to a Ratio of Inequality,
as appears from our 9"^ CoroUar}'. And thus in all Cafes it will be
found, that.tz/Z/'o' Chance produces Irregularities, ftill the Odds will
be infinitely great, that in procefs of Time, thofe Irregularities will
bear no proportion to the recurrency of that Order which naturally
refultsfrom Original Design.
Remark II.
As, upon the Suppofition of a certain determinate Law according
to which any Event is to happen, we demonftrate that the Ratio
of Happenings will continually approach to that Law, as the Expe
riments or Obfervations are multiplied : fo, converfely, if from num
berlefs Obfervations we find the Ratio of the Events to converc^e to
a determinate quantity, as to the Ratio of P to Q; then we conclude
that this Ratio expreflTes the determinate Law according to which
the Event is to happen.
For let that Law be exprefi*ed not by the Ratio P : Q, but by fome
other, as R : S ; then would the Ratio of the Events converge to
this laft, not to the former : which contradids our Hypothefis.
And the like, or greater, Abfurdity follows, if we fliould fuppofe the
K k 2 Event
252 T^e Doctrine tf/"CHANCEs.
Event not to happen according to any Law, but in a manner altoge
ther defultory and uncertain ; for then the Events would converge to
no fixt Ratio at all.
A^ain, as it is thus demonftrable that there are, in the conftitu
tion of things, certain Laws according to which Events happen , it is
no lefs evident from Obfervation, that thofe Laws ferve to wife, ufe
ful and beneficent purpofes ; to preferve the ftedfaft Order of the
Univerfe, to propagate the feveral Species ot Beings, and furnifh
to the fentient Kind fuch degrees of happinefs as are fuited to
their State.
But fuch Laws, as well as the original Dcfign and Purpofe of
their Eftablifliment, muft all be frovi without , the Inertia of mat
ter, and the nature of all created Beings, rendering it impoffible
that any thing Ihould modify its own effence, or give to itfelf, or
to any thing elfe, an original determination or propenfity. And hence,
if we blind not ourfelves with metaphyfical duft, we fliall be led,
by a {hort and obvious way, to the acknowledgment of the great
Maker and Governour of all j Him/elf alliaife, allpowerful
and good.
Mr. Nicolas Bernoulli *, a very learned and good Man, by not
connefting the latter part of our reafoning with the firft, was led to
difcard and even to vilify this Argument from Jinal Caufes, fo much
infifted on by our beft Writers ; particularly in the Inflance of the
nearly equal numbers of male and female Births, adduced by that
excellent Perfon the late Dr. Arbuthnot, in Vhil Tranf N°. 328.
Mr. Binicul/i colle(fls from Tables of Obfervations continued for
82 years, that is from A. D. 1629 to 171 1, that the number of
Births in London was, at a medium, about 14000 yearly : and like
wife, that the number of Males to that of Females, or the facility
of their produdlion, is nearly as 18 to 17. But he thinks it the
greatefl: weaknefs to draw any Argument from this againft the
Influence of Chance in the produdion of the two Sexes. For, fays he,
*' Let 14000 Dice, each having 35 faces, 18 white and 17 black,
" be thrown up, and it is great Odds that the numbers of white and
" black faces fhall come as near, or nearer, to each other, as the
" numbers of Boys and Girls do in the Tables."
To which the fhort anfwer is this: Dr. Arbuthnot never faid,
" that fuppofing the facility of the production of a Male to that
* See his two Letters to Mr. de Monmoti, one dated at London, 1 1 0£f. iyi2,
the other horn Paris, 23 Jan. 1713, in the Appendix to thz Analyfe des Jeux de
hazard, 2d Edit.
" of
TTse Doctrine oJ Chances. 253
" of the produdlion of a female to be already ^aY to nearly the Racio
" of equality, or to that of j8 to 17 j he was amazed that the Ratio
" of the numbers of Males and Females born fhould, for many years,
" keep within fuch narrow bounds:" the only Propofition againft
which Mr. Bernoulli'% reafoning has any force.
But he might have faid, and we do ftill infift, that " as, from
" the Obfervations, we can, with Mr. Bernou.'/i, infer the facili
" ties of produdlion of the two Sexes to be nearly in a Ratio of
" equality J fo from this Ratio once difcovered, ^nd matiifejlly ferv
" ing to a "wife purpofe, we conclude the Ratio itfelf, or if you will
*' the Form of' the Die, to be an Effect of Intelligence and Defgn''
As if we were fhewn a number of Dice, each with 18 white and 17
black, faces, which is Mr. Bernoulli's fuppofition, we fliould not
doubt but that thofe Dice had been made by lonie Artift ; ar,d that
their form was not owing to Chance, but was adapted to the particu
lar purpofe he had in Viev/.
Thus much was neceffary to take off any imprefiion that the
authority of fo great a name might make to the prejudice of our ar
gument. Which, after all, being level to the lowefi undcrffanding,
and falling in with the common fenfe of mankind, needed no formal
Demonftration, but for the fcholaftic fubtleties with vvliich it may be
perplexed ; and for the abufe of certain words and piirafes ; which
fometimes are imagined to have a meaning merely becaufe they are
often uttered.
Chance, as we underftand it, fuppofes the Exijlence of things, and
their general known Properties : that a number of Dice, for inftance,
being thrown, each of them flaail fettle upon one or other of its
Bafes. After v/hich, the Probability of an affigned Chance, that is
of fome particular difpofition of the Dice, becomes as proper a fub
j£(5l of Tnveftig.Ltion as any other quantity or Ratio can be.
But Chance, in atheiftical writings or difcourfe, is a found ut
terly infignificant : It imports no determination to any mode of Ex
iflence ; nor indeed to Exijlence itfelf, more than to nonexiftcnce ;
it can neither be defined nor underftood : nor can any Propofition'
concerning it be either affirmed or denied, excepting this one, " That
*' it is a mere word."
The like may be faid of fome other words in frequent ufe ; as
fate, necejjity, nature, a ccurfe of r,ature in contradiflindion to
the Dii'lne energy : all which, as ufed on certain occafions, are mere
founds : and yet, by artful management, they ferve to found fpe
cious conclufions : which however, as foon as the latent fdlacy of the
Tertn is dettdted, appear to be no lefs abfurd in themfelves, than they
commonly are hurtful to fociety. 1 fliaJL
254 ^^ Doctrine o/'Chances.
I fliall only add, That this method of Reafoning may be ufefully ap
plied in fome other very interefting Enquiries ; if not to force the Aflent
of others by a ftricft Demonftration, at lead to the Satisfa6tion of the
Enquirer himfelf : and {hall conclude this Remark with a pafllige
from the Ars CenjeBandi of Mr. James Bernoulli^ Part IV. Cap. 4.
where that acute and judicious Writer thus introduceth his Solution of
the Problem for AJfigning the Limits within ivhich, by the repetition
of Experiments, the Probability of an Event may approach indefinitely
to a Probability given, " Hoc igitur eft illud Problema &c." This^
fays he, is the Problem which I am now to impart to the Publick, after
having kept it by me for twenty years : new it is, and difficult ; but of
fuch excellent ufe, that it gives a high value and dignity to every other
Branch of this Do£lrine. Yet there are Writers, of a Clafs indeed
very different from that of fames Bernoulli, who infinuate as if the
DcSlrine of Probabilities could have no place in any ferious Enquiry ;
and that Studies of this kind, trivial and eafy as they be, rather
difqualify a man for reafoning on every other fubjedl. Let the
Reader chufe.
PROBLEM LXXIV.
To Jifid the Probability of throwing a Chance ajftgned a
given number of times without intermijfion^ in any
given number of Trials.
Solution.
Let the Probability of throwing the Chance in any one Trial be
reprefentcd by ^ ^ , and the Probability of the contrary by — —7 :
Suppofe n to reprefent the number of Trials given, and p the num
ber of times that the Chance is to come up without intermiffion ;
then fuppofing — —r = x, take the quotient of Unity divided by
1 — X — axx — aax"^ — a'^x'^ — a^x^ aP—^xP^
and having taken as many Terms of the Series refulting from that
divifion, as there are Units in n — p + i> multiply the Sum of the
P P P
whole by ■ " " •■ , or by . " ■■ , and that Produd will exprefs
bP a + i^P
the Probability required.
Exam
'The Doctrine o/" Chances. 255
Example i.
Let It be required to throw the Chance afligned three times toge
ther, in 10 trials, when« and b are in a ratio of Equality, otherwife
when each of them is equal to Unity; then having divided i by
1 — X — XX — x% the Quotient continued to fo many Terms as
there are Units in « — /" h i> that is, in this Cafe to 10 — 3 f i
= 8, will be I J X ] 2XX } ^'^ + 7.^* + 13^5 4 24x'5 \ 44x7.
Where x being interpreted by — —7 , that is in this Cafe by — ,
the Series will become if_ifl_Lii.JJ.__
41 4 i^ , of which the Sum is ^ = ^ , and this be
f p
ing multiplied by ■■ " " , that is, in this Cafe by ^ , the ProducH:
will be — ;y , and therefore 'tis fomething more than an equal Chance,
that the Chance affigned will be thrown three times together fome
time in 10 Trials, the Odds for it being 65 to 63.
N. B. The continuation of the Terms of thofe Series is very eafy ;
for in the Cafe of the prefent Problem, the Coefficient of any Term
is the Sum of 3 of the preceding ; and in all Cafes, 'tis the Sum of
fo many of the preceding Coefficients as are denoted by the num
ber/*.
But if, in the foregoing Example, the ratio of ^ to ^ was of ine
quality, fuch as, for inftance 2 to i, then according to the prefcription
given before, divide Unity by 1 — x — 2xx — 4^3, and the Qiio
tient v/ill be i f x \^xx j gx^ \ igx'^^^gx^ \ i22x'^ \ 297^7,
in which the quantity x, which has univerfally been fuppofed
: — ■ — rr , will in this Cafe be = — j wherefore in the preceding
Series having interpreted x by ^ , wc fhall find the Sum of 8 of
its Terms will be ==: ^^ = — , and this being multiplied by
— which in this Cafe is — ^ , the Produdl ^^ will exnrefs
the Probability required, fo that there are the Odds of 592 to 137,
that the Chance affigned will happen three times together in 10
Trials or before; and only the Odds of 41 to 40 that it does not
happen three times together in j.
Aftec
2^'^ 7^5^ Doctrine o/ Chances.
After having given the general Rule, it is proper to confider of
Expedients to make the Calculation more eafy , but before we pro
ceed, it is proper to take a new Cafe of this Problem : Suppofe there
fore it be required to find the Probability of throwing the Chance
afligned 4 tin:ies together in 21 Trials. And firfl let us fuppofe the
Chance aiTigned to be of J'quality, then we fhould begin to divide
Unity by i — x — xx — x' — x* ; but if we confider that the Terms
X 4 XX 4" '>•■' + x^ ^^^ i" geometric Progreflion, and that the Sum
of that Progreffion is ■ \_^^  , if we fubtradt that flrom i, the
remainder ■ ' ~ "_^7"' ^^'^ ^^ equivalent to i — x — xx — x'^ — x*,
and confequently jzr^ l. y! will be equivalent to the Quotient
of Unity divided by 1 — x — xx — Ar3 — x+ ; and therefore by
that expedient, the moft complex Cafe of this Problem will be
reduced to the contemplation of a Trinomial ; let us therefore
begin to take fo many Terms of the Series refulting from the
Divifion of Unity by the Trinomial i — 2a; 4 x' as there are Units
in « — p j I, that is in 21 — 4 j i, or 18, and thofe Terms will
be I \ 2x \ 4X* \ Sx^ { i6x+ \ 31x5 J^ 6ox' \ ii6jf7
\ 224A^ h 432a:9 f 833^'° ■] ',6c6x" f 3096X" 4 5968x'5
\ ii494Ar''^ ~\ 22i55x'^ j 42704X'* + 823I2a:'7. Now al
though thefe Terms may feem at firft fight to be acquired by
very great labour, yet if we confider what has been explained be
fore concerning the nature of a recurring Series, we fliall find that
each Coefficient of the Series is generated from the double of the laft,
liibtrafting once the Coefficient of that Term which ftands 5 places
from the laft inclufive ; fo that for inftance if we wanted one Term
more, confidering that the laft Coefficient is 82312, and that the
Coefficient of that Term which ftands five places from the laft in
clufive is 5968, then the Coefficient required will be twice 82312,
wanting once 5968, which will make it 158656, fo that the Term
following the laft will be i58656x'^
But to make this more confpicuous, if we take the Binomial
2x — x\ and raife it fucceffively to the Powers, whofc Indices are
o, i> 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Gff. and add all thofe powers together, and write
againft one another all the Terms which have the fame power of
X, we ffiall have a very clear view of the quotient of i divided by
I — 2x \ xK Now it will fbnd thus, fuppofing that a ftands for 2.
Ihe Doctrine of Chances, 257
I
■\ax
4 a^x^ — 2ax^
[ ax"^ ■ — • 3^^x7
\ a'^x'^ 4fl'x*
ya'^x^ — 5a^x9
1 a'°x'° — ea'x" [ ix'"
\a"x"— ya^x" [ ^.ax"
{a'^'x'^— Sa'^x'^ \ ^ddx}"
[«"**:'* — i2fl"Ar'* 428«*;f'^ — 4tfx'«
When the Terms have been difpofed in that manner, it will be
eafy to fum them up by the help of a Theorem which may be
feen pag. 224. Now a being ^= 2, and x =r — , every one
of the Terms of the firft Column will be equal to i, and there
fore the Sum of the firft Column is fo many Units as there are
Terms, which Sum confequently will be 18; but the Terms of
the fecond Column being reduced to their proper Value, will con
ftitute the Series
32 I 32 • 32 I 32 • 32 ' 32 ' 32 ' 32 '
2 + 22.. JL. _Li_ 4. II. 4 _1L of which the Sum will be ^ :
32 • 32 ' 32 ' ?2 ' iZ 32 '
the Terms of the third Column will conftitute the Series — —
+ J 4 ^ 4. i^ + 11 4 1L_ 4 _ii 4 '^^"^
• I02d. I I02A I 102J. I \01± ' lO'l I 1074 <
1024 I 1024. ' 1024 I 1024 ' 10^4 ' 1024 ' 1024
of which the Sum is —  j the Terms of the fourth Column
added together are .^^g , and therefore the Sum of all Terms
may be expreffed by is — 2i 4 ^^ '^ = ^^ .
' * ' 32 ' 1024 3*7^8 3270s
L But
258 1})e Doctrine of Chances.
But this Sum ought to be multiplied by i — at, that is, by
I ^■z=L — , which will make the Produft to be ' '^  ^  ' ■ ■ .
Neverthelefs, this Multiplication by i — x, takes off too much
from the true Sum, by one half of the loweft Term of each
Column, therefore that half muft be added to the foregoing Sum ;
now all the loweft Terms of each Column put together will be
J _ _L1 + ± 11 == 221^ , of which the half ■"^"'
32 • 1024 32768 " 3279S 32708
ought to be added to the Sum . '^'^?^ l ■ , which will make the true
y°'^^ ; but this is farther to be multiplied by
which by reafon that a and b are in a ratio of equality
will be reduced to xP ■==. 2— ; and therefore the Sum ■ ''^'° '
ought to be divided by 16, which will make it to be j^^— :
and this lafl: Fradlion will denote the Probability of producing the
Chance afligned 4 times fuccefTively fome time in 21 Trials, the
Odds againft it being 527513 to 521063, which is about 82 to
81.
But what is remarkable in this Problem is this, that the oftner
the Chance afligned is to be produced I'ucceflively, the fewer Columns
•will be neceflary to be ufed to have a fufficient Approximation, and in
all high Cafes, it will be fufficient to ufe only tlic firft and fecond,
or three at moft, whereof the firft is a geometric Progreflion, of
which a very great number of Terms will be as eafily fummed up,
as a very fmall number ; and the fecond Column by what we have
faid concerning the nature of a recurring Series, as eafily as the firft,
and in fliort all the Columns.
But now 'tis time to confider the Cafe wherein a to b has a
ratio of inequality ; we had faid before that in this Cafe we ought
to divide Unity by i — x — axx — aax'i — a'x^ — af~^ xP ^
but. all the Terms after the firft which is i, conftitute a geometric
Progreflion, of which the firft is x, and the laft ^z/— 'aV, and tiierefore
the Sum of that Progreflion is — — 21. , and this being fub
traded from Unity, the remainder will be i — ax •\afxf+', and
1 • €IX
therefore Unity being divided by the Series abovewritten will be
1 < — (IX
ten
1 — ax
lihe Doctrine o/'Chances. 259
I — ax and \i a A^ i be fuppofcd = w, this Fradlion
I — ax \ at xf\r*^
— X
will be J~°'' 3rr» ^^ therefore if we raife fuccefllvely
mx — aPxP+^ to the feveral Powers denoted by o, i, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
&c. and rank all thofe Powers in feveral Columns, and write
againft one another all the Terms that have the fame power of x,
we fhall be able to fum up every Column extended to the num
ber of Terms denoted by « — /> \ j, which being done, the whole
mufl: be multiplied by i — ax, and to the Sum is to be added the
Sum of the loweft Term of each Column multiplied by ax.
But if it be required to aflign what number of Games are ne
ceflary, in all Cafes, to make it an equal Chance whether or not
f> Games will be won without intermilfion, it may be done by
approximation, thus ; let ^^ ZLl_ be fuppofed = q, and let
•^ — " , _ be fuppofed = r, then the number
of Games required will be expreffed by ^qr; thus fuppofing
a = 1, b ^=1, />=6, then the number of Games would be
found between 86 and 875 but if a be fuppofed = i, and /^ = 2,
ftill fuppofing ^ = 6, the number of Games requifite to that efFedt
would be found to be between 763 and 764; but it is to be ob
ferved, that the greater the number p is, fo much the more exadl
will the Solution prove.
L 1 a Of
TREATISE
O F
ANNUITIES
O N
LIVES:
Dedicated to
The Right Honourable
GEORGE Earl of MACCLESFIELD
President of the Royal Society.*
PREFACE
T O T H E
Second EDITION.
DR. Halley publifhed in the Philofophical Tranfadlions, N'>.
196. afi EJfay concerning the Valuation cf Lives ; it was
partly built upon Jive Tears Obfervation of the Bills of Morta
lity taken at Breflaw, the Capital of Silefia, and partly on his own
Calculation.
Altho'
262 PREFACE.
Althd' he had thereby confirmed the great Opinion "which the World
entertained of his Skill arid Sagacity ^ yet he ivas fe7ifible, that his 'Ta
bles and Cakiilatiofis were fufceptible of farther Improvements ; of this
he exprejjed his Senfe in the following Words ; Were this Calculus
founded on the Experience of a very great Number of Years, it
would very well be worth the while, to think, of Methods to facili
tate the Computation of two, three or more Lives.
From whence it appears^ that the table of Obfervations bei?ig only
the Refult of a few Tears Expedience ^ it was not fo entirely to be de
fended upon, as to make it the Foundation of a fixed and unalterable
Valuation of Annuities on Lives; and that even admitting fuch a Ta
ble could be obtained, as might be grounded on the Experience of a great
Number of Tears, flill the Method of applyifig it to the Valuation of
feveral Lives, would be extremely laborious, confdering the vajl Num
ber of Operations, that would be requifite to combine every Tear of each
Life with every Tear of all the other Lives.
The SubjeSl of Annuities on Lives, had been long negleSied by me^
partly prevented by other Studies, partly wanting the necefary means
to treat of it as it deferved: But two or three Tears after the Publica
tion oj the firfl Edition oj my Dodlrine of Chances, / took the SubjeB
into Confideration ; and confulting Dr. HalleyV Table of Obfervations,
I found that the Decrements of Life, for con fider able Intervals of Time,
were in Arithmetic Progref/ion ; for Infiance, out of 6/^6 Perfons of
twelve Tears of Age, there remain 640 after one Tear; 634 after
two Tears ; 628, 622, 616, 610, 604, 598, 592, 586, after
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, \o Tears refpeBively, the common Difference
of thofe Numbers being 6.
Examining afterwards other Cafes, I found that the Decrements of
Life for feveral Tears were fiill in Arithtnetic Progref/ion ; which
may be obferved from the Age of 54, to the Age of ji, where the
Difference for \j Tears together, is conftantly 10.
After having thoroughly examined the Tables of Obfervation, and
difcovered that Property of the Decrements of Life, 1 was inclined to
compofe a Table of the Values cf Ainuities on Lives, by keeping clofe
to the Tables of Obfervation ; which would have been done with Eafe,
by taking in the whole Extent of Life, feveral Intervals whether equal
or unequal : However, before I undertook the Tafk, f tried what
would
PREFACE. 263
would be the Refult, of Juppofing thofe Decrements uniform from the ^ge
of Twelve ; being fatis fed that the Excejfes arifing on one fide, would be
nearly compenfated by the DefeSts on the other ; then comparing my Cal
culation with that of Dr. Halley, 1 found the Conclufon fo very little
different, that I thought it fuperfuous to join together feveral different
Rules, in order to compofe a fingle one : I need not take notice, that
from the Time of Birth to the Age of Twelve, the Probabilities of Life
increafe, rather than decreafc, which is a Reafon of the apparent Irre
gularity of the Tables in the beginning.
Another thing was necejjary to my Calcidation, which was, to fup
pofe the Extent of Life confined to a certain Period of Time, which J
fuppofe to be at S6 : What induced me to affume that Suppofi
tion was ift. That Dr. Halley terminates his Tables of Obfervations
at the 84''' Tear ; for alt ho' out of 1000 Children of one Tear of Age,
there are twenty, who, according to Dr. Halley'^ Tables, attain to
the Age of S4. Tears, this Number of zo is inconfiderable, and would
fiill have been reduced, if the Obfervations had been carried two Tears
farther. 2°. // appears from the Tables o/'Graunt, who printed the
fir ft Edition of bis Book above 80 Tears ago, that out of \ 00 newborn
Children, there remained not one after 86 Tears ; this was deduced
from the Obfervations of feveral Tears, both in the City and the Coun
try, at a Time when the City being lefs populous, there was a greater
Facility of coming at the Truth, than at prefent. 3°. I was farther
confirmed in my Hypothefis, by Tables of Obfervation made in Switzer
land, about the Beginning of this Century, wherein the Limit of Life
is placed at 86 ; As for what is alledged, that by fome Obfervations of
late Tears, it appears, that Life is carried to 90, 95, and even to 100
Tears j I am no more moved by it, than by the Examples of Parr or
Jenkins, the firfi of whom lived 152 Tears, and the other 167. To
this may be added, that the Age for purchafing Annuities for Life,
feldom exceeds jq, at which Term^ Dr. Halley ends his Tables of the
Valuation of Lives.
The greatefi Difficulty that occurred to me in this Speculation, was
to invent praSlical Rules that might eafily be applied to the Valuation of
feveral Lives ; which, however, was happily overcome, the Rules being
fo eafy, that by the Help of them, more can be performed in a garter
of an Hour, than by any Method before extant^ in a garter of a Tear.
Since
264 PREFACE.
Since the Publication of my firjl Edition^ which was in lyz^, J
made fame Improvements to it, as may be feen in the j'econd Edition of
my Doftrine of Chances ; but this Edition of the Annuities has many
Advantages over the former^ and that in refpeSi to the Dijpofition of
the Precepts, the Concifenefs of the Rules, the Multiplicity of Problems^
and Uftfulnefs of the Tables I have invented.
Before I make an End of this Preface, I think it proper to obferve,
that alt ho' I have given Rules for finding the Value of Aniiuities for
any Rate of Inter eft, yet I have co77fined myfelf in my Tables, to the fe
ver al Rates of /[, ^ and t per Cent, which may be interpreted, as if
I thought it reafonable, that when Land fcarce produces three and a
half per Cent, and SouthSea Annuities barely that Intereft, yet the
Pur chafer of an Annuity f mild make 4 per Cent, or above, but thofe
Cafes can hardly admit of Comparifon, it being well known, that Land
in FeeJimple procures to the Proprietor Credit, Honour, Reputation,
and other Advantages, in confideration of which, he is contented with a
f ma Her Income. As to the Value of South Sea Annuities, it has its
Foundation on the PunBuality of Payments, and on a Parliamentary
Security ; but Ammities on Lives, have not the former Security, and
feldom the latter.
It was found neceflary, however, in a fubfequent Edition, to add
the Tables of 3 and 'i^\ per Cent, Intereft.
ANNUI
Of ANNUITIES on LIVES.
Part I. containing the Rules and Examples.
BEFORE I come to the Solution of Queftions on Lives,
it will be neceflary to explain the Meaning of fome Words
which I fhall often have occafion to mention.
1°. Suppofing the Probabilities of Life to decreafe in Arith
metic Progreflion in fuch manner, as that I'uppoling, for In
flance, 36 Perfons each of the Age of 50, if after one Year ex
pired there remain but 35, after two 34, after three 33, and fo
on ; it is very plain that fuch Lives would neceflarily be extindt in
36 Years, and that therefore the Probabilities of living i, 2, 3, 4, 5,
t^c. Years from this Age of 50 would fitly be reprefented by the
Fraftions — , \j , ^ , ^ , ^ , (^c. which decreafe in Arith
metic Progreffion.
I will not fay that the Decrements of Life are precifely in that
Proportion ; ftill comparing that Hypothefis with the Table of
Dr. Halley, from the Obfervations made at Brejlaw, they will be
found to be exceedingly approaching.
2°. I call that the Complement of Life, which remains from the
Age given, to the Time of the Extindion of Life, which will
be at 86, according to our Hypothefis. Thus fuppofing an Age
of 50, becaufe the Difference between 50 and 86 is 36, I call 36
the Complement of Life.
3°. I call that the Rate of Interefl which is properly the Amount
of one Pound, put out at Interefl for one Year ; otherwife one
Pound joined with the Interefl it produces in one Year : thus
fuppofing Interefl at 5 per Cent the Interefl of i /. would be 0.05,
which baing joined to the Principal i, produces 1.05; which is
what I call the Rate of Interefl.
PROBLEM L
Suppofing the Probabilities of Life to decreafe in Arith
metic ProgreJJion, to find the Value of an Aufiuity upon
a Life of an Age given.
Solution.
Let the Rent or Annuity be fuppofed=i, theRateof Interefl = r, the
Complement ofLife=;/, the Value of an Annuity certain to continue
M m during
266 n^e Doctrine of Chances applied
r
■ \P
during « Years =P, then will the Value of the Life be ;—' ^^^'"^^
is thus expreffed in Words at length ;
Take the Value of an Annuity certain for fo many Tears, as are
denoted by the Complement of Life ; multiply this Value by the Rate of
Interejl, and divide the Product by the Complement of Life, then let
the ^lotient be fubtraSfcd from Unity, and let the Remainder be di
vided by the Inter eft oj i 1. then this lajl ^cotient •will exprefs the
Value of an Amiuity for the Age given.
Thus fuppofe it were required to find the prefent Value of an
Annuity of i /. for an Age of 50, Intereft being at 5 per Cent.
The Complement of Life being 36, let the Value of an Annuity
certain, according to the given Rate of Intereft, be taken out of
the Tables annexed to this Book, this Value wilt be found to be
16.5468.
Let this Value be multiplied by the Rate of Intereft 1.05, the
Produdt will be 17.374.1.
Let this Produdt be divided by the Complement of Life, viz. by
36, the Quotient will be 0.4826.
Subtradl this Quotient from Unity, the Remainder will be
0,5174.
Laftly, divide this Quotient by the Intereft of 1 /. viz. by 0.05,
and the new Quotient will be 1035; which will exprefs the Va
lue of an Annuity of i /. or how many Years Purchafe the faid Life
of 50 is worth.
And in the fame manner, if Intereft of Money was at 6 per Cent.
an Annuity upon an Age of 50, would be found worth 9.49 Years
Purchafe.
But as I have annexed to this Treatife the Values of Annuities
for an Intereft of 3, 3 1, 4, 5, and 6 per Cent, it will not be neceflary
to calculate thofe Cafes, but fuch only as require a Rate of Intereft
higher or lower, or intermediate ; which will feldom happen, but
in cafe it does, the Rule may eafily be applied.
PROBLEM II.
77}e Values of twoftngle Lives being given, to fnd the Va
lue of an Annuity granted for the Time of their joint
continuance*
SOLU
to the Valuation ^Annuities. 267
Solution.
Let M be the Value of one Life, P the Value of the other, r the
Rate of Intereft ; then the Value of an Annuity upon the two joint
Lives will be  — ^ — — ^ — ^ , in Words thus ;
Multiply together the Values of the two Lives, and referve the
ProduB.
Let that ProdiiB be again tnultiplied by the Intereft of i\. and let
that new ProduSl be fubtraSiedfrom the Sum of the Values of the Lives,
and referve the Remainder.
Divide the fir ft ^antity referved by. the fecond, and the ^otient
will exprefs the Value of the two joint Lives.
Thus, fuppofing one Life of 40 Years of Age, the other of 50,
and Intereft at 5 per Cent. The Value of the firft Life will be found
in the Tables to be 1 1.83, the Value of the fecond 10.35, ^^^ P^°'
dudl will be 1 22.4405, which Producft muft be referved.
Multiply this again by the Intereft of i /. viz. by 0.05, and this
new Produdl will be 6.122025.
This new Produdl being fubtrafted from the Sum of the Lives
which is 22.18, the Remainder will be 16.057975, and this is the
fecond Quantity referved.
Now dividing the firft Quantity referved by the fecond, the Quo
tient will be 7.62 nearly j and this exprefles the Values of the two
joint L.ives.
If the Lives are equal, the Canon for the Value of the joint Lives
will be ftiortened and be reduced to — ==— t7 > which in words may
be thus exprefTed ;
Take the Value of one Life, and referve that Value.
Multiply this Value by the hit cr eft of 1 1. and then fabtraSi the Pro
duSf from the Number 2, and referve the Remainder.
Divide the firft ^.antity referved by the fecond, a id the ^otient
will exprefs the Value of the two equal joint Lives.
Thus, fuppofing each Life to be 45 Years of Age, and Intereft at
5 per Cent.
The Value of one Life will be found to be 11.14, the firft Quan
tity referved.
This being multiplied by 0.05 the Intereft of i /. the Produdl will
be 0.557.
This Produft being fubtraded from the Number 2, the Re
mainder will be 1.443, ^he fecond Quantity referved.
M m 2 Divide
268 The Doctrine of Chances applied
Divide the firft Quantity referved viz. 11.14, by the fecond,
•y/z. 1.443, and the Quotient 7.72 will be the Value of the two
joint Lives, each of 45 Years of Age.
PROBLEM III.
The Values of three /ingle Lives being given^ to ji?id the
Value of an Annuity for the Ti??ie of their joint co?i
ti?mance.
Solution.
Let M, P, ^, be the refpeiflive Values of the fingle Lives, then
the Value of the three joint Lives will be MP+M^^t^^zj ^u^^^ '
fuppofing d to reprefent the Intereft of 1 /. in words thus ;
Multifly the Values of the fingle Lives together, and referve the
Produdf.
Let that ProduSi be multiplied again by the Interejl of 1 1. and let
the Double of that new ProduB be fubtraSfed from the Sum ofthefe
veral ProduBs of the Lives taken two and two, and referve the Re
mainder.
Divide the firft ^lantity referved by the fecond, and the ^otient will
be the Value of the three joint Lives.
Thus, fuppofing one Life to be worth i 3 Years Purchafe, the
fecond 1 4, the third 1 5, and Intereft at 4 per Cent, the ProducH:
of the three Lives will be 2730, which being multiplied by the
Intereft of 1 /. viz. by 0.04, the newProdudl will be 109.20, whereof
the double is 2 1 8.^ : Now the Produd of the firft Life by the fe
cond is I 82 ; the Produdt of the firft Life by the third is 195; and
the Produdl of the fecond Life by the third is 210, the Sum of all
which is 587; from which fubtrading the Number 218.40 found
above, the Remainder will be 368.60, by which the Produd of the
three Lives, viz. 2730 being divided, the Quotient 7.41 will be the
Value of the three joint Lives.
But if the three Lives were equal, the general Expreftion of the
Value of the joint Lives will be much ftiorter : for let Mreprefent the
Value of one Life, d the Intereft of i /. then the Value of the three
joint Lives will be pr^j^j , in Words thus j
Take
to the Valuation (?/'Annuities. 269
T^ake the Value of one Life, and referve it, multiply this Value by
the Inter eji of i\. and double the ProduSl.
Subtract thii double ProduSi from the number 3, and referve the
"Remainder.
Divide the firjl ^antity referred by the fecond, and the S^otient
ivill be the Value of the three joint Lives.
Thus, fuppofirig three equal Lives each worth 14 Years Pur
chafe, referve the Number 14.
Multiply this by 0.04, Intereft of i /. the Produdt will be 0.56,
which being doubled, will be 1.12.
This being fubtradted from the Number 3, the Remainder will
be 1.88, which is the fecond Quantity to be referved.
Divide 14, the firft Quantity referved by the fecond 1.88, and the
Quotient 7.44 will be the Value of the three joint Lives.
From the two laft Examples it appears, that in eftimating the Va
lues of joint Lives, it would be an Error to fuppofe that they might
be reduced to an Equality, by taking a Mean Life betwixt the longed
and fliorteft, for altho' 14 is a Medium betwixt 13 and 15, yet an
Annuity upon thofe three joint Lives was found to be 7.41, whereas
fuppofing them to be each 14 Years Purchafe, the Value is 7.44 ;
it is true that the Difference is fo fmall, that it might be negledted,
yet this arifes meerly from a near Equality in the Lives ; for if there
had been a greater Inequality, the Conclufion would have confidera
bly varied.
Before I come to the fourth Problem, I think it proper to ex
plain the Meaning of fome Notations which I make ufc of, in order to
be as clear and concife as I can.
I denote the Value of an Annuity upon two joint Lives, whofe
fingle Values are M and P hy M P, which ought carefully to be
diftinguifhed from the Notation MP ; this laft denoting barely
the Produ£l of one Value multiplied by the other, whereas MP
ftands for what was denoted in our fecond Problem by
MP
AirP—r—iMf
In the fame manner, the Value of an Annuity upon the three
joint Lives whofe fingle Values are M, P, ^, is denoted by AIP^^,,
which is equivalent to what has been expreffed in the tliird Problem by
iMP^
A/Pj M^t Pii~ zd M P^!_ •
This being premlfed, I proceed to the fourth Problem.
PRO^
270 T^he Doctrine of Chances applied
PROBLEM IV.
Tloe Values of two ftngle Lives being given, to find the
Value of an A?inuity upoji the longefl of them^ that is,
to continue fo long as either of them is in being.
Solution.
Let M be the Value of one Life, P the Value of the other, MP
the Value of the two joint Lives, then the Value of the longefl of
the two Lives will be M\P~MF. In Words thus ;
From the Sum of the Values of the fingle Lives, fubtraSl the Value of
the joint Lives, and the Remainder ivill be the Value of the longeft.
Let us fuppofe two Lives, one worth 13 Years Purchafe, the
other 14, and Intereft at i^ per Cent. The Sum of the Values of the
Lives is 27, the Value of the two joint Lives by the Rules before
given, will be found 9.23. Now, fubtrading 9.23 from 27, the
Remainder 17.77 is the Value of the longeft of the two Lives.
If the two Lives are equal, the Operation will be fomething
fliorter.
But it is proper to obferve in this place, that if feveral equal
Lives are concerned in an Annuity, I commonly denote one fingle
Life by M', two joint Lives by M" , three joint Lives by M'" , and
fo on ; fo that the Rule for an Annuity to be granted till fuch Time as
either of the equal Lives is in being may be exprefTed by ^M.' — M" .
PROBLEM V.
"The Values of three fingle Lives being given^ to find the
Value of a?i Anfiuity upon the longefl of them.
SOLUTI ON.
Let M, P, ^, be the Values of the fingle Lives, MP, M^, P^,
the Values of all the joint Lives combined two and two, MP^
the Value of three joint Lives, then the Value of an Annuity upon
the longefl of them is M\P\ ^—MP M^—PZrh^^P^,
in Words thus ;
Take the Sum of the three fingle Lives, Jrom 'which Swn fubtraB the
Sum of all the joint Lives combined two and two, then to the Remainder
add the Value of the three joint Lives, and the Refult will be the Value
of the longeft of the three Lives.
Thus,
to the Valuation (?/ Annuities. 271
Thus, Suppofing the fingle Lives to be 73, 14, and 15 Years
Purchafe, the Sum of the Values will be 42 ; the Values of the
firft and fecond joint Lives is 9.24, of the firft and third 9.05, of
the fecond and third 10.18, the Sum of all which is 29.06 which
being fubtradted from the Sum of the Lives found before, viz. 42,
the Remainder will be 12.94, to which adding the Value of the
three ioint Lives 7.41, the Sum 20.35 will be the Value of the
longefi of the three joint Lives.
But if the three Lives are equal, the Rule for the Value of the
Life that remains laft is 3 M' — 3 M" ^ M'" .
Of REVERSIONS.
PROBLEM VL
Suppofe A is in Pojfejfwn of an Annuity^ and that B af
ter the Deceafe of A is to have the Annuity for him^
and his Heirs for ever^ to find the prefent Value of
the Reverfon.
Solution.
Let M be the Value of the Life in PofTeffion, r the Rate of In
tereft, then the prefent Value will be — ^ M, that is, from the
Value of the Perpetuity, fubtraB the Value of the Life in Poffejion, and
the Remainder will be the Value of the Re'ucrjion.
Thus, Suppofing that A is 50 Years of Age, an Annuity upon
his Life, Intereft at 5 per Cent, would be S.39, which being fub
tradled from the Perpetuity 20, the Remainder will be 11.61, which
is the prefent Value of the Expectation of B.
In the fame manner, fuppofing that C were to have an Annuity
for him and his Heirs for ever, after the Lives of A and B, then
from the Perpetuity fubtrading the Value of the longeft of the two
Lives of A and B, the Remainder will exprefs the Value of C's
Expectation.
Thus, Suppofing the Ages of y^ and 5 be 40 and 50, the Value of
an Annuity upon the longeft of thefe two Lives would be found by
the4*'' Problem to be i 4.56 ; and this being fubtradled from the Per
petuity 20, the Remainder is 5.44, which is the Value of C'sEx
pedtation, and the Rule will be the fame in any other Cafe that may
be propofed.
PRO^
272 The Doctrine of Chances applied
PROBLEM VII.
Suppojing that A is in Pojfejfton of an Annuity for his
Life^ and that B after the Life of h^ JJjould have an
Annuity for his Life only ; to fnd the Value of the
Life of B after the Life of A.
This Cafe ought carefully to be diftinguiftied from the Cafe of the
6th Problem ; for in that Problem, altho' the Expedtant B fhould
die before A., flill the Heirs of B have the Reverfion ; but in the
Cafe of the prefent Problem, if B dies before Ay the Heirs of B
have no Expe<ftation.
Solution.
Let M be the Value of the Life of the prefent. Pofleflbr, P the
Value of the Life of the Expedlant, then the Value of his Expefta
tion is P — MP. In Words thus ;
From the prefent Value oj the Life of B, fiibtraSl the prefent Value
of the joint Lives of B and A, and the Remainder will be the Value of
B'5 ExpeSiation.
The Reafon of which Operation is very plain, for if B were now
to begin to receive the Annuity, it would be worth to him the Sum
P in prefent Value ; but as lie is to receive nothing during the joint
Lives of himfelf and A, the prefent Value of their two joint Lives
ought to be fubtraded from the Value of his own Life.
PROBLEM VIIL
To find the Value of one Life after two.
Thus^ Suppofe A in PoffeJJion of an A?muity for his Life.,
that B is to have his Life in it after A, and that C
is likewife to have his Life in it after B, but fo that
B dying before A, Cfucceeds A immediately ; to find
the Value of Cs Expeciation.
Solution.
Let M, P, ^, be the refpedtive Values of the Lives of A, B, C,
then
to the Valuation 0/ Annuities. 273
then the Value of Cs Expcdation is ^— ^^4^^^ which in
Words is thus exprefled ,
From the prefent Value of the Life of C, fubtraB the Sum of the
joint Lives of himfelf and A, and of himfelf and B, and to the Re
mainder add the Sum of the three joint Lives, and the Refult of thefe
Operations will exprefs the prefent Value of the ExpeSlation ofC.
PROBLEM IX.
If Ay B, C agree among themf elves to buy an Annuity
to be by them equally divided^ whiljl they live together,
then after the Deceafe of one of them, to be equally di
vided between the two Survivor s^ then to belong entire
ly to the lafl Survivor for his Life ; to find what each
of them ought to contribute towards the Purchafe.
Solution.
Let M, P, ^, be the refpedlive Values of the Lives of y/, P, C,
then what A is to contribute, is
What B is to contribute, is
What C is to contribute, is
In Words thus ;
From the Value of the Life of h, fubtradl the ha f Sum of the Values
of the joint Lives of himfelf and B, and of himfelf and C', and to the
Remainder add  of the Value oj the three joint Lives, and the Sum ivill
be what A is to contribute towards the Purchafe.
In like manner, from the Value of P's Life fubtradl the half Sum
of the Values of the joint Lives of himfelf and A, and of himfelf
and C, and to the Remainder add  of the Value of the three joint
Lives, and the Sum will be what B is to contribute.
RI n And
2 74 T'^^ Doctrine of Chances applied
And again, from the Value of the Life of C, fubtrad the half
Sum of the V^alues of himfelf and A, and of himfelf and B ; then
to the Remainder add  of the Values of the three joint Lives, and
this laft Operation will ftiew what C is to contribute.
PROBLEM X.
Suppojing three equal Lives of any Age given ^ for Inflance
30, and that up07i the FaiVmg of any one of them^ that
Life pall be immediately replaced^ and I then receive a
Sum 1 agreed upon^ and that to Perpetuity for me and
my Heirs j what is the prefent Value of that ExpeEia
tion^ and at what Intervals of Time, one with another .y
may I expeB to receive the f aid Sum?
Solution.
Imagine that there is an Annuity of i /, to be received as long as the
three Lives are in being, and that the Prefent Value is M"\ which
Symbol we make ule of to reprefent the Prefent Value of an Annuity
upon three equal joint Lives ; now, fince each Life is fuppofed to be
30 Years of Age, and that the Rate of Intereft is 5 per Cent, we fhall
find, by following the Direftions given in Prob. IIL that the Pre
fent Value of the three joint Lives is 7.64 = M'" j this being fixed,
the Prefent Value of all the Payments to be made to Eternity at equal
Intervals of Time, will be '~^,,, — x^ where the Qiiantity d figni
fies the Intercft of i /. In words thus ;
Multiply the Prefent Value of the three joint Lives, viz. 7.64, by the
Iiitereft of 1 1. uhich in this Cafe is 0.05, and that Produ^, which is
0.382, nwjl be referved.
SubtraB this ^antity jrom Unity, and the Remainder, viz. 0.6 J 8
being divided by the ^antity referved, the ^otient will be 1.62, and
this being multiplied by the Sum f, which we may fuppofe \ 00 1, the
ProduSi will be 162 1. and this is the prefent Value of all the Payments
that will be made to Eternity , at equal Intervals of time upon the fail
ing of a Lije, which is to be immediately replaced.
As for the Intervals of Time after which thofe Replacements will
be made, they may be found thus ;
Look
to the Valuation ©/"Annuities. 275
Look in the feventh of our Tables for the Number 7.64, which
is the Value of the three joint Lives, and over againft it will be found
the Number anfwering, which is between 9 and 10 ; and fo it may
be faid that the Replacements will be made at every Interval of about
9 or I o Years.
But that Interval may be determined a little more accurately, by
help of a Table of Logarithms, by taking the Logarithm of the
Quantity  _^^'" ' and dividing it by the Logarithm of r.
The Logarithm of ^_j^^ , is 0.20901 15 ; the Logarithm of r
is 0.021 1893 ; and the firfl being divided by the fecond, the Quo
tient is 9.86, which fhews that the Replacements will be made at
Intervals a little more than 9 \ Years.
PROBLEM XL
Suppofing^ as before^ three equal Lives <^ 30, and that
the Lives are 720 1 to be renewed ^ till after the failing
of any two of them^ and that a Sum p is then to be re
ceived^ and that perpetually^ after the failing of two
Lives^ what is the prefent Value of that ExpeSiation f
Solution.
Make 3 M" — 2 M"' =1 A, let the Intereft of i /. be = d, then
the prefent Value of that Expedtation will be  '~^' — x p.
But to know the Intervals of Time after which the Lives will be
filled up, take the Logarithm of the Quantity ^ ' — , and divide
it by the Logarithm of r.
The Value of a fingle Life of 30, Intereft at 5 per Cent, is found
in our Tables to be 13 Years Purchafe, the Value M" of two joint
Lives by Problem 11. is 9.63 ; and the Value M'" of three joint Lives
by Problem III. is 7.64 ; then 3 M" — zM'" , or the Difference be
tween the Triple of two joint Lives, and the Double of three joint
Lives will be 13,59 =:yf, then —j^ X/ will be found to be
°473 /*' and the Intervals of Time will be 23.32, that is, nearly
23^ Years.
N n 2 PRO
276 ^Jhe Doctrine of Chances applied
PROBLEM XII.
Suppoftng Jim the Lives to be 30, avd that they are not to
be renewed till after the ExtinElion of all three ^ and that
a Sufn q is then to be received^ and that perpetually
after every RetiewaU what is the prefent Value of that
ExpeBation f
Solution.
Make 3M' — 3M" j M"' = B, then the prefent Value of that
Expedation will be — j^— xg; here B will be found to be 17.76,
and confequently — j^ — x g will be = o. 12 1 xq.
And the Intervals of Time will be the Logarithm of the Quantity
• _' divided by the Logarithm of r, which in this Cafe would be
44.87, that is, nearly 45 Years.
Corollary.
Hence it will be eafy for the Proprietor of the Lives, to find which
is moft advantageous to him, to fill up a Life as foon as i't is vacant,
or not to fill up before the Vacancy of two, or to let them all drop
before the Renewal.
Remark.
It is not to be imagined that if Intereft of Money was higher
or lower than 5 per Cent, the Intervals of Time after which the Re
newals are made, would be the fame as they are now, for it will be
found, that as Intereft is higher, the Intervals will be fhorter ; and
as it is lower, fo the Intervals will be longer ; yet one might make it
an Objedion to our Rules, that the length of Life would thereby
feem to depend upon the Rate of Intereft. To anfwer this Diffi
culty, it mufl be obferved, that the calculating of Time imports no
more, than that confidering the Circumflances of the Purchafcr and
the Proprietor of the Lives, in refpedl to the Rate of Interefl agreed
upon, and the Sum to be given upon the Renewal of a Life, or
Lives, the Proprietor makes the fame Advantage of his Money, as
if he had agreed with the Purchafer, that he fliould pay him a cer
tain Sum of Money at equal Intervals of Time, for redeeming the
Rifque
tll'lt
to the Valuation o/" Annuities. 277
Rifque which he the Purchafer runs of paying that Sum when the
Life or Lives drop : but the real Litervals of Time will be (hewn
afterwards.
Altho' it feldom happens that in Contrads about Lives, any more
than three are concerned, yet I hope it will not be difpleafing to our
Readers to have this Speculation carried a little farther.
But as general Rules are beft inculcated by particular Examples,
I fhall take the Cafe of five Lives, and exprefs the feveral Circum
flances of them in fuch manner, as that they may be a fure Guide
in all other Cafes of the fame kind, let the Number of Lives be what
it will ; let therefore the following Expreflions be written,
SM""ArM""
ioM"'—\sM""\6M'
10 M" — zoM"'XisM"" — 4M'
SM'xoM" \ioM"'^ sM""\iM'
The firft Term M'"' reprefents properly the prefent Value of an
Annuity upon five equal joint Lives, but from ihence may be de
duced the Time of their joint continuance, or the Time in which it
may be cxpedled that one of them will fail, it being as I have faid
before, the Logarithm of _^^yy ■ divided by the Logarithm of r :
however, for fhortnefs fake, I call for the prefent that Expreffion the
Time.
The two next Terms, 5M"" — 4M'"", reprefent the Time in which
two of the Lives will fail.
The three next Terms, \oM"' — i^M"" \ bM"'\ reprefent
the Time in which three out of the five Lives will fail.
The four next, i o M" — 20 M'" + 1 5 M"" — 4 M"'\ reprefer.t
the Time in which four out of the five Lives will fail.
The five next, 5M'— 10 M"f 10 M'" — 5 M'"+ i M'"", re
prefent the Time in which all the five Lives will be extinil.
Now the Law of the Generation of the Coefficients is thus.
1°. Take all the Terms which are afi:e(fted with the Mark M""\
beginning from the uppermoft, with the Coefiicients i — 4 h 6 —
4 f 1 , which are the Terms of the Binomial i — i , raifed to the fourth
. Power, which is lefs by one than the Number of Lives concerned.
2". Take the Terms which are affected with the Mark M"\ and
prefix to them in order, the product of the Number 5 by the Co
efficients 1 — 3I3 — 1> w'hich are the Terms of the Bbomial 1 — i
raifed to its Cube, that is, to a Power lefs by two than the Number
of Lives concerned. 3"
2yS 72>e Doctrine of Chances applied
3°. Take all the Terms which are affeded with the Mark M"\
and prefix to them in order, the Product of the Number lo, mul
tiplied by the Coefficients i — 2i, which are the Terms of the
Binomial i — i raifed to its Square, that is, to a Power lefs by three
than the Number of Lives concerned.
4°. Take all the Terms which are affedted with the Mark M'\
and prefix to them the product of the Number lo, multiplied by the
Terms of the Binomial i — i, raifed to the Power whofe Index is i,
that is to a Power lefs by four than the Number of Lives con
cerned.
5°. Take all the Terms which are affedted with the Mark M\
and prefix to them the Product of the Number 5, multiplied by the
Binomial i — i, raifed to a Power lefs by 5 than the Number of Lives
concerned ; which in this Cafe happening to be nothing, or o, dege
generates barely into Unity.
As for the Multiplicators, conceiving that the Multiplicator of the
firfl: Term M'"" is 1, all the Multiplicators will be i, 5, 10, 10, 5,
which are all, except the laft, the Coefficients of the Binomial i \ 1,
raifed to its fifth Power, that is, to a Power equalling the Number
of all the Lives.
N. B. The Exception here given, does not fall upon the Number
5, but upon the laft Term of the fifth Power, ij5iio^iol5J,
which laft i is rejected.
Of SUCCESSIVE LIVES.
PROBLEM Xin.
If A enjoys an Annuity for his Life., and at his Deceafe
has the Nomination of a Succeffor B, ijoho is alfo to efijoy
the Annuity for his Life, to fnd the prejent Value
of the two fucceffive Lives.
Sol u T ION.
Let the Values of the Lives be M and P ; let i/ be the Intereft of
I /. then the Value of the two fucceffive Lives will be M\P — dMP.
But if the Succeflbr B was himfelf to have the Nomination of a Life
^; then the Value of t he three fucceffive Lives would by M^P}
But
to the Valuation ^Annuities. 279
But before I proceed, it is proper to obferve that the Expreffions
MP, M^, P^, and MP^, fignify barely Produdts, which is
conformable to the ufual Algebraic Notation ; this I take notice of,
for fear thofe Expreffions fhould be conf ound ed with others that I
have made ufe of before, viz. MP, M^, P^, and MP^, which
denoted joint Lives.
But to comprife under one general Rule all the poffible Cafes that
may happen about any Number of fucceffive Lives, it will be proper
to exprefs it in Words at length, thus ;
From the Sum of all the Lives, fiibtro6l the Sum of the PrcduBs of
all the Lives com billed two and two, which Sum of ProdiiSfs before they
are fubtr'Sted, ought to be multiplied by the Inter eji of \\.
'to this add the Sum of the ProduSls oj all the Lives taken three and
three, but multiplied again by the Square of the Inter e[i of 1 1.
From thisfubtraSi the Sum of the Products of all the Lives taken four
and four, but mu'tiplied again by the Cube of the Inter e/i of \\. andfo
on by alternate Additions and Subtractions ftill cbferving that if there
was occafwn to take the Lives five and five, fix and fix, &c. the Intereji
of 1 1. ought to be raifed to the /^th Power, and to the ^th, andfo on.
But all thofe Operations would be very much contrafted, if the
Lives to be nominated were always of the fame Age, for Inftance
30 : for fuppofe Mto be the Value of an Annuity on an Age of 30,
and d to be the Intereft of i /. then the prefent Value of allthe fuc
ceffive Lives, of which the Number is n, would be ——~j— •
In Words thus ;
Multiply the Value of one Life by the Inter efl of i\. let the ProduB
be jubtr acted from Unity, ajid let the Remainder be raifed to that
Power which anfwers to the Number of Lives ; then this Power being
again fubtraSled from Unity., let the Remainder be divided by the Inte
reft of \\. and the ^totientwill be the prefent Value of all the Juccejive
equal Lives.
And againy ij the Number of thofe Lives were infinite, the Sum.
would barely be — .
PROBLEM XIV.
Of a Perpetual Advowfon.
1°. r fuppofe that at the Time of the Demife of the Incumbent,
the Patron would receive the Sum f, for alienating his Right of the
next
2 8o The Doctrine of Chances applied
next Prefentation, if the Law did not forbid the Alienation in that
Circumftance of Time.
2°. I fiinpofe that when this Right is transferred, the Age of the
Incumbent is fuch, that an Annuity upon his Life would be worth M
Years Purcliafe, when the Intereft of i /. is d.
This being fuppofed, the Right of the next Prefentation is worth
I — d'M\f, and the Right of Patronage, or perpetual Recurrency
of the like Circumftances to Eternity, would be worth ' ~ — yif.
In words thus;
'Take the pre fen t Value of the Life of the Incumbent, and multiply it
by the Inter ejl of i\. and referve the ProduSi.
SubtraSl this PreduBfrom Unity, and let the Remainder be multiplied
by the Sum expeffedf, and the new Producl iinll Jkew the Right of the
next Prefentation ; let atfo this be referred.
'Then divide tij'fecojid ^lantity referved by the fir fl, and the patient
nvill Jloeio the prefent Value of the Right of Patronage, or perpetual Re
currency.
Thus, fuppofing the Life of the Incumbent worth 8 Years Pur
chafe, the Rate of Intereft 5 per Cent, and the Sum / to be 100/.
tlie Right of the next Prefentation would be worth 60/. and the
Right of perpetual Recurrency 150 /.
PROBLEM XV.
Of a Copy /jo Id.
Stippofing that every Copy hold Tenant pays to the Lord
of the Manor a certain Fine on Admittance^ and that
every Succeffor does the like ; to find the Value of the
Copy hold computed from the Time of a Fine being paid^
independently fro?n the Fine that may be given on Alie
nation.
Solution.
I fuppofe that the Value of the Life of the prefent Tenant, and
the Life of every future SuccclTor when he comes to Pofleflion is the
fame ; this being admitted, let M be the Value of a Life, d the In
tereft of I /. and /the Fine to be paid, then the prefent Value of the
Copy
to the Valuation of Annuities. 281
Copyhold will be — ^J xf: and this Expreflion being exactly
the fame as that whereby the Right of Patronage has been deter
mined, needs no Explanation in Words.
Only it is neceffary to obferve, that the Sum / paid in Hand being
added to this, will make the Canon fliorter, and will be reduced to
jjj^ , which may be exprefled thus in Words.
Divide the Fine by the ProduSl of the Lije, multiplied by the Inter efi
ofi\.
Thus, if the Life of a Tenant is worth 12 Years Purchafe, and
the Fine to be paid on Admittance 56 /. and alfo the Rate of In
tereft 5 per Cent, then the prefent Value of the Copyhold is 93
u.
3
PROBLEM XVI.
A borrows a certain Sum of Money, and gives Security
that it Jhall be repaid at his Deceafe with the Interefis ;
40 fx the Sum which is then to be paid.
Solution.
Let the Sum borrowed be / the Life of the Borrower M Years
purchafe, d the Intercft of i /. then the Sum to be paid at A\ De
ceafe will be ^_!_jiyi ; thus, fuppofing /= 800, Af = 11.83,
</=o.o5, then ^_^^^ would be found = 1958/; in the fame
manner, if the Sum to be paid at A'% Deceafe, was to be an Equi
valent for his Life, unpaid at the Time of the Purchafe, that Sum
would be ^__^^^ = 2895/. Supppofing the Annuity received to
be 100/. as alfo the Life of ^ 1 1.83 Years Purchafe.
PROBLEM XVIL
A borrows a Sum f, payable at his Deceafe, but with this
Condition, that if he dies before B, then the whole Sum
is to be loft to the Lender ; to find what A ought to pay
at his Deceafe in cafe hefurvives B.
O o S O L u
282 The Doctrine of Chances applied
Solution.
Let us fuppofe, as before, that A is 40 Years of Age, that the
Sum borrowed is 800 /. and that Intereft of Money is 5 per Cent.
Farther, let it be fuppofed that B is 70 Years of Age, then, 1°.
determine what A fhould pay at his Deceafe, if the Life of B was
not concerned ; by the Solution of the preceding Problem, we find the
Sum to be 1958/. But we ought to confider that the Lender having
a Chance to lofe his Money, there ought to be a Compenfation for
the Rifque he runs, which is founded on the poffibility of a Man of
feventy outlif ing a Man of forty. Now, by the Rules to be deli
vered in the next Problem, we (hall find that the Probability of that
Contingency is meafured by the Fraftion ^ , and therefore the Pro
bability of the youngeft Life's furviving the oldeft is — . Now
this being the Meafure of the Probability which the Lender has of
being repaid, the Sum 1958 ought to be increafed in the proportion of
23 to 19, which will make it to be 2370/. nearly.
Of the Probabilities of Survivorjhip,
PROBLEM XVIII.
Any Number of Lives being given^ to find their Probabi
lity of Survivorjhip.
Solution.
Let A^ B, C, D, C^c. be the Lives, whereof A is fuppofed to be
the youngeft, B the next to it, C the next, &c. and fo the laft the
oldeft.
Let w, p, q, s, /, &c. be the refpedlive Intervals intercepted be
tween the Ages of thofe Lives, and the Extremity of old Age fup
pofed at 86 ; then the Probabilities of any one of thofe Lives fur
viving all the reft, will be
for
to the Valtmtion o/'Amnuities. 283
ior A
1 —
I
p n
zn bnp
P 11
i '
t*
B
IZ nfq
J5
ZOnpq s
c
i^
zn tnp
r ^„p
—
I inpq
ZOtipqs
D
iznfq
20 npqt
E
^npq
. 1
zonpqt
&c.
T^
S"P1'
Here fome few things may be obferved.
1°. That the Probability of the youngeft Lifer furviving all the reft,
always begins with Unity, and that it is expreffed by fo many Terms
as there are Lives concerned.
2°. That the Probabilities of the other Lives furviving all the reft,
are always expreffed each by one Term lefs than the preceding.
3°. That each firft Term of thofe whereby each Probability is ex
preffed, is always the Sum of all the other Terms ftanding above it.
4". That the Numbers 2, 6, 12, 20, 30, (ic. made ufe of in the
Denominators of the Fraftions are generated by the Multiplication of
the following Numbers, 1x2,2x3, 3x4, 4x5, &c. It would
take up too much room to explain this general Rule in Words at
length, for which Reafon I fhall content my felf with explaining only
the Cafes of two and three Lives, which are the moft neceffary.
And, Firft, if there be two Lives of a given Age, fuch as 40 and
70, take their Complements of Life, which as I have explained bfore,
are the Differences between 86 and the refpeBive Ages, thofe Comple
ments therefore are 46 and 1 6.
Divide the fiortefl Compkfnetit by the Double of the Lofigeji, and the
^otient will exprefs the Probability of the oldeft, Life Jwviving the
youngcjl.
Thus in the prefent Cafe, the fhorteft Complement being 16, and
the double of the longeft being 92, I divide 16 by 92, and the Quo
tient ^ or^ will exprefs the Probability required.
Subtradl this Fradion from Unity, and the Remainder — will ex
■' 2;
prefs the Probability of the youngeft Life furviving the oldeft.
So that the Odds of the youngeft Life furviving the oldeft, are 19
to 4.
The Cafe of three Lives is thus : Suppofe there are three Lives of a
given Age, fuch as 40, 45, and 60 ; take their refpedive Comple
ments of Life, which are 46, 41, 26, then divide the Square of the
O o 2 ftiorteft:
2S4 1'he Doctrine of Chances applied
fhorteft Complement by 3 times the Produd of the other two, and
the Quotient will exprel's the Probability of the oldeft Life furviving
the other two.
Divide the middlemoft Complement by the Double of the greateft,
and from the Quotient fubtraft the Square of the leaft divided by 6
Times the Produtt of the other two, and the Remainder will exprefs
the Probability of the middlemoft Life furviving the other two.
Subtraft the Sum of the two foregoing Probabilities from Unity,
and the Remander will exprefs the Probability of the youngert Life
furviving the other two.
Thus in the Cafe propofed, the Probability of the oldefl: Life fur
(.76
viving the other two, will be found pj = jr nearly
56 ss
The Probability of the middlemoft Life furviving the other two will
be
.131
■=1 ^ nearly.
The Probability of the youngeft Life furviving the other two will
be — nearly,
i
PROBLEM XIX.
Any Number of Lives being given^ to find the Probabi
lity of the Order of their Survivorjhip.
Solution.
Suppofe the three Lives to be thofe of A, B, C, and that it be re
quired to affign the Probability of Survivorfliip as limited to the Or
der in which they are written, fo that A fliall both furvive jB and C,
and B alfo furvive C. This being fuppofed, let ft, p, q, reprefent the
refpedive Complements of Life, of the youngeft, middlemoft, and
oldeft, then the Probabilities of the fix different Orders that there arc
in three things, will be as follows ;
in Words thus j
A
5,
c
A
c.
B
B,
A
C
B,
c,
A
c.
A
B
c,
B,
A
1 —
1
2f
1
__ J±_
JJX
' bnp
__ ??
i«P
bnf
•y?
tup
Divide
to the Valuation ^Annuities. 285
i". Divide the middlemoji Complement by the double of the greatefi, and
let the §>uotient be fubtraEied from Utiity.
2". From that Remainder fubtraB again the ^lotient of the JJoorteJi
Complement divided by the Double of tl. Middle nojl.
3°. To that new kemaindr add the ^lotier.t arifmg from the Square
ofthepoorteji Complement divided by fix times the PrcduSl of the great [jl
and fiiiddlemofi ?nultiplied together, and this lajl Sum 'will exprefs the
Probabiliiy of the firfl Order.
The probability of the Second v/ill be found thus; »
1°. tiivide the Jlxrtefi Complement by the double of the middlemoji ^
and referve the ^otient.
2°. Divide the Square of the fiiorteft by three times the ProduCl of
the longejl Complement^ multiplied by the Middlemofl^ and referve the
new ^otient.
3°. Let the fecond ^wtient be fubtraSled from the firfl, and the Re
mainder jiHl exprej} the Probability of the happening of the fecojid
Order.
The Probability of the third Order will be found as foUws.
1°. Divide the middlemoji Complement by the Double of the Greatefl,
and referve the ^otient.
2°. Divide the jhortefi Complement by the Double oj the longefl, and
referve the ^otient.
3°. Divide the Square of the Jhortefi Complement by fix times the Pro
duB of the longefi and middlemofi ?}iultiplied together, afid referve the
^otient.
4°. From the firfl ^otient referve d, fubtraB the fecond ; then to the
Remainder add the Third, and the Refult of ihefe Operations tvill ex
prefs the Probability of the third Order.
The Probability of the fourth Order will be found thus.
1°. Divide the fhortefi Complement by the Double oj the longefi, and
referve the ^totient.
2°. Divide the Square of the fhortefi Complement by three Times the
ProduB of the longefi and 7niddlemofi, and referve the neaa Quotient.
y. From the firfl ^otient refervcd, fubtraB the fecond, and the Re
mainder will exprefs the Probability of the fourth Order.
The filth Order will be found as follows.
Divide the Square of the Jhortefi Complement by fix times the ProduB
of the longefi and middlemofi, multiplied together, and the ^otient ivill
exprefs the Probability required.
The Probability of the lafl Order is the fame as that of the fifth.
PRO
2 86 iChe Doctrine of Chances applied
PROBLEM XX.
D, whiljl in Healthy makes a Will, whereby he bequeaths
500 I. to E, and 300 1. to F. with this Condition^ that
if either of them dies before him^ the whole is to go to
the Survivor of the two ; what are the Values of the
ExpeBations of ¥. and F, efiimated fro?n the time that
the Will was writ P
Solution.
Suppofe D to be 70 Years of Age, E 36, and F 45 ; fappofc alfo
that d reprefents the Intereft of i /. when Interefl is at 5 per Ce?it.
An Annuity upon the Life of D is worth S77y as appears from
our Tables, which Value we may call M.
Wherefore if it was fure that D would die before either of them,
the Expedtation of E upon that Account, would b e worth in prefent
Value 1 — dMy.^00, and the Expedlation of F, i — ^Mx300;
which being reduced to Numbers, are refpedively t,S5 ^ ^5 ^' ^^^
^ 1 3 /. 9 5.
But as this depends on the Probability of D's dying firft, we are to
look for that Probability, which is compofed of two Parts, that is,
when the Order of Survivorfliip is either E, F, D, or F, E, D ;
now the Order £, F, D, is the fame as A^ B, C, in the preceding
Problem, whereof the Probability is i £ ^ + ~^ ' ^"^
the Order F, E, D, is the fame as B, A, C, whereof the Probability
is ^^ — I — ^— , and the Sum of thofe Probabilities, viz.
(,«1
I '' ► i j — ^ , will exprefs the Probability of D's dying
before them both.
Now the Ages being given, their Complements of Life will alfo
be given, fo that n will be found = 50, p ■=/\.j, y = 16 ; for which
reafon the Probability jurt; now fet down being exprefled in Numbers,
will be 0.6865, and this being multiplied by the Expedations before
found, viz. 315/. 15^. and 213/. g s. will produce 244 /. 35, 5^.
and 146/. 10 s. %d and thefe Sums exprefs the prefent Expedations
of E and F, arifing from the Profpedt of D's dying before either of
them.
But
to the FahattoH (?/'Annuities. 287
But both £ and F have a farther Expedlation ; which, in refped
to £, is, that he {hall furvivc Z), and that D fhall furvive F, in
which Cafe he obtains 800 /. but this not being to be obtained before
the Deceafe of Z), is reduced in prefent Value to 569/. 4 J Now
the Probability of obtaining this anfwers to the Order, A^ C, B, in
the preceding Problem, which is exprefled by ^^ ^=0.1535;
and therefore multiplying the Sum 569/. 4 j. by 0.1535, the Pro
du6t will be 87 /. j s. 5 d. and this will be the fecond Part of £'s
Expedtation, which being joined with the firft Part found before,
viz. 244 /. 3 s. ^d. the Sum will be 33 i /. 10 s. 10 d. which is the
total Expectation of E, or the prefent Sum he might juftly expedt,
if he would fell his Right to another.
In the fame manner the total Expetflation of F will be found to be
213 /. 18 J. 6d.
Otherwife, and more exadlly^ thus ;
1. Let the Value of an Annuity of 40 /. for D's Life, be taken off;
which reduces the Sum to /, 569.2. as above.
2. The Heirs of D have likewife a demand upon this lafl Sum, for
the Contingency of his outliving both the Legatees j which is implied
tho' not exprefled in the Queftion. Subtradl therefore from the Value
of the longeft of the 3 Lives D, E, F, which, by Prob. V, is 1 5.477,
the Value of the longeft of the two Lives E, F; which, by Prob. IV,
is 15.197; and the Remainder 0.28, D's Survivorship due to the
Heirs, taken from /. 569.2, confidered as 20 Years Purchafe, or the
Perpetuity, reduces it to /. 561.23.
3. This Sum, now clear of all demands, might be paid down
immediately to £ and F, in the proportions of 5 and 3 , according to the
Will; were their Ages equal. And altho' they are not, we fliall
fuppofe that D, or his Executor named, pays it them in that manner j
the Share of £ being /. 350.77, and that of F, /. 210.46. leaving
them to adjuft their Pretenfions, on account of Age, between
themfelves.
4. In order to which ; the Sums which £ and F have received
being called G and L, refpeftively ; let the Value of £'s Survivorship
after D and F, found as above, be denoted by e, and that of F after
D and £ by/; Then thofe Values, e and /^ will reprefent the
Chances, or Claims, which £ and Fhave upon each other's Sums
L and G. And therefore the Ballance of their Claims ia ' '^~ ,^ ;:
due by For £ as the Sign ispofitive or negative.
As.
288 He Doctrine of Chances applied
As in our Example, ? and /being 3.26, 2.269 refpedivcly, E
mufl: refund to F ( — ^T"^— = — ) /• 19.857 ; and the jull Values of
their Legacies will be /. 330. 18 s. and /. 230. 6s.
This laft Computation is to be ufcd when the Teftator D is not
very old, or the Ages of E and Fare confiderably different ; or when
both thele Conditions obtain: For in thofe Cafes, the Ratio of the
Prcbabiiities of Survivorfhip will differ fenfibly from that of the Va
lues of the Probabilities reckoned ia Years purchafe. And the like
caution is to be obferved in all fimilar Cafes.
Of the ExpeSlations oj Life.
I call that the Expedlation of Life, the Time which a Perfon of a
given Age mayjuftly expedl to continue in being.
I have found by a Calculation deduced from the Method of Fluxions,
that upon Supposition of an equable Decrement of Life, the Expeda
tion of Life would be exprefTed by «, fuppofing« to denote its Com
plement.
However, if that Interval be once attained, there arifes a new Ex
pedation of «, and afterwards of ^w, and fo on. This being laid
down, I (hall proceed farther.
PROBLEM XXL
To find the Rxpe£iatio?i of two joint Lives^ that is, the
'Time 'which two Lives may expeSi to contimie together
in beinz
Solution.
Let the Complements of the Lives be « and p, whereof n be the
longeft :ind/) the fhorteft, then the Expedtation of the two joint Lives,
will htp ~ , in Words thus.
From  thefhortefl Complement, fubtra5l the 6tb Part of its Square,
divided by the greatef, the Remainder will exprefs the Number of Tears
fought.
Thus, fuppofing a Life of 40, and another of 50, the fhorteft
Complement will be 36, the greateft 46, j of the ftiortefl will be
18,
to the Valuation <?/*Annuities. 289
18, the Square of 36 is 1296, whereof the fixth Part is 216, which
being divided by 46, the Quotient will be !r = 4.69 nearly; and
this being fubtraded from 18, the Remainder 13.31 will exprefs the
Number of Years due to the two joint Lives,
Corollary.
If the two Lives be equal, the Expecflation of the two joint Lives
will be — part of their common Complement.
PROBLEM XXIL
Any Number of Lives being given^ whether equal or un
equal^ to find how many Years they may be expeSied
to continue together.
Solution.
1°. Take 4 of the fhorteft Complement.
2*. Take ^ part of the Square of the fhortefl:, which divide fuc
ceflively by all the other Complements, then add all the Quotients
together.
3°. Take — part of the Cube of the fhorteft Complement,
which divide fucceflively by the Producfl of all the other Comple
ments, taken two and two. •
4°. Then take — part of the Biquadratc of the fhorteft Comple
ment, which divide fuccefTively by the Produds of all the other Com
plements, taken three and three, and fo on.
5°. Then from the Refult of the firft Operation, fubtrad the Re
fult of the fecond, to the Remainder add the Refult of the third,
from the Sum fubtrad the Refult of the fourth, and fo on.
6°. The laft Quantity remaining after thefe alternate Subtradions
and Additions, will be the thing required.
N' B. The Divifors 2, 6, 12, 20, &c. are the Produds of i by
2, of 2 by 3, of 3 by 4, of 4 by 5, (s'c.
Corollary.
If all the Lives be equal, add Unity to the Number of Lives, and
divide their common Complement by that Number thus increafed by
P p Unity,
200 T'he Doctrine of Chances applied
Unity, and the Quotient will always exprefs the Time due to their
joint Continuance.
PROBLEM XXIII.
Two Lives being given, to find the Number of Years due
to the Longefi.
SOLUTI ON.
From the Sum of the Years due to each Life, fubtradt the Number
of Years due to their Joint Continuance, the Remainder will be the
Number of Years due to the Longeft, or Survivor of them both.
Thus, fuppofing a Life of 40, and another of 50, the Number of
Years due to the Life of 40, is 23 ; the Number of Years due to the
Life of 50, is 18 ; from the Sum of 23 and 18, "viz. 41, fubtraft 13.3 1
due to their joint Continuance, the Remainder 27.69 will be the Time
due to the longeft.
Corollary.
If the Lives be equal, then — of their common Complement will
be the Number of Years due to the Survivor.
Thus, fuppofing two Lives of 50, then their Complement will be
36; whereof two thirds will be 24; which is the Time due to the
Survivor of the two.
PROBLEM XXIV.
Any Nujnber of Lives being given, to find the Number
of Years due to the Longefi.
S O L U T I ON.
' Let the Years due to each Life be refpedlively denoted by M, P,
^., 5, ^c. then let the joint Lives, taken two and two, be denoted by
MP, iW^, M5, P^j &c. let alfo the j oint L ives, taken three and three
be denoted by MP^, MFS^ M^, P^, See . More over, let the
joint Lives, taken four and four, be denoted by MP^, &c. then if
there be three Lives, the Time due to the longeft will be
M— MPfMP^
VP— M§,
+^^^ ,.  But
to the Valuation <?/'Annuities. 291
But if all the Lives be equal, let « be their common Complement,
then the Time due to the longeft, will be n.
If there be four Li v es, the T ime due to the longed will be
M— MP{ MP^ ^MP^S
■^P—M^MPS
45 ^p^^p^s
—PS
But if all the Lives be equal, the Time due to the longeft will be
exprefled by — of their common Complement.
TJniverfally, if the common Complement of equal Lives be n, and the
Number of Lives/*, the Number of Years due to the Longeft of them will
be^x«.
PROBLEM XXV.
Any Number of equal Lives being given, to find the
'Time in which one^ or two, or three, &c. of them will
fail.
SOLUT I ON.
Let n be their common Complement, p the Number of all the
Lives, q the Number of thofe which are to fail, then — f— x n
will exprefs the Time required. In words thus j
Multiply the common Complemefit of the Lives by the Number of the
Lives that are to drop, and divide the ProduB by the Number of all the
Lives increafed by Unity.
Thus, fuppofing 100 Lives, each of 40 Years of Age, it will be
found that 5 of them will drop in about two Years and a Quarter.
But if we put t for the Time given, we fhall have the four follow
ing Equations;
1°. t'^^
.0
2". qt=^'
t±l
P + lMt
n
,0 A— Vi
P p 2 In
4». n=^I±12lL
292 7he Doctrine of Chances applied
In which any three of the four Quantities 71, p, q, t, being given, the
fourth will be known.
This Speculation might be carried to any Number of unequal
Lives : but my Defign not being to perplex the Reader with too
great Difficulties, I (hall forbear at prefent to profecute the thing any
farther.
PROBLEM XXVI.
A, u^ho is 30 Tears of Age ^ buys an A?muity of i\. for
a limited 1'ime of his Life^ f^PP^f^ * ^ Tears, on Con
dition that if he dies before the Expiration of that Time,
the Purchafe Money is ivholly to be lofi to his Heirs ;
to fnd the prefent Value of the Purchafe, fuppofing
Interefl at 5 per Cent.
Sol ution.
Let n be the Complement of yf' s Life, m the limited Number of
Years, p the Difference of n and m ; ^ the Value of an Annuity of
I /. certain for m Years, and V the Value of the Perpetuity : then
the t^'^elcnt Value of the Purchafe will be """^ ^'" ' . In Words
1 n
thus ;
1°. Multiply V, the Value of a Perpetuity, at the given Rate of
Intercjl, by m the limited Number of Tears, and referve the ProduSi.
2°. To the fame V add Unity, and take the Difference between their
Sum and p, it'hich is the Excefs of the Complement of h's Age above the
limited Number of Tears : multiply this Difference by Q, an Annuity
certain for m Tears, to get the fecond ProduSi.
3°, Let the Sum of thefe Products, if p is greater than V\ 1 ; and
their Difference, if it is leffer, be divided by n, the Complement of Ks
Age ; and the ^otient fhall be the Value of the Purchafe.
As, in the Queftion propofed, where «:= 56, /«=:io, ^ = 46,
^=7.7212, and V^=. 20 ; the f irft Produdt {mV) is that of 20
by 10, or 200. And p — V\\ being 46 — 21. =25, the fecond
Product is 25 X 7.72 1 2, that is 193.0302. The twoProduds added
[p being greater than V\\) make 393.0302 : which divided by 56
quotes, for the Anfwcr, 7.0184 Years Purchafe.
Note, I. When it happens that p is equal to V\i ; as, Interefl
being at 5 per Cent, if the Difference of n and w is 2 1 ; the fecond
Product ^ — V\i^ X ^vanifhing, the Anfwer is (imply — .
2. If:
to the Valuation o/* Annuities. 293
2. \im^=.n^ or/>=:o, feeing V\% equal to —^, the Expreflion
will be changed into — '■ ^^= ; which coincides with the So
r — I n X r — i
lution of Prob. I : ^ reprefenting now the fame Thing as P did in
that Problem.
3. By this Propoiition, fome ufeful Queftions concerning 7/7/j/r<7wa
may be refolved.
Suppofe A, at 30 Years of Age, affigns over to B an Annuity of
1000/ a Year, limited to 10 Years, and depending likewife upon
A'i Life : then, by the foregoing Solution, A ought to receive for it
only 7018/. 8i. Intereft being at 5 per Cent. But if B wants that
the Annuity fliould ftand clear of all Rifques, he muft pay for i: the
Value certain^ which is 772 i/. 45. and A ought to have his Life in
fured for 702 /. 1 6 j. the juft Price of fuch an Infurance being the Dif
ference of fhe Values of the Annuity certain, and of the fame Annuity
fubjedt to the Contingency of the Annuitant's Life failing.
The fame 702/. \bs. is likewife the Value of the Reverfion of this
Annuity to a Perfon and his Heirs, who fliould fucceed to the Re
mainder of the 10 Years, upon ^'s Deceafe. See Prob. XXVIIL
It is evident by the foregoing Procefs, that altho' the Queftion
there propofed is particular, yet the Solution is general ; which Me
thod, often pradifed in my Dodlrine of Chances^ is of lingular Ufe to
fix the Reader's Imagination.
PROBLEM XXVir.
A pays an Annuity of 1 00 1. durt7ig the hives of B and
C, each 3 4 Tears of Age ; to find what A ought to
give in prefent Money to buy off the Life of B, fup
pofing Inter efi at 4 per Cent.
Solution.
It will be found by our Tables that an Annuity upon a Life of 34
is worth 14,12 Years Purchafe ; and, by the Rules before delivered,
that an Annuity upon the longeft of the two Lives of B and C is worth
18.40: hence it is very plain, that, to buy off the Life of 5, ^muft
pay the Difference between 18 40 and 14.12, which being 4.28, it
follows that yf ought to pay 428/.
In the fame manner, if yf were to pay an Annuity during the three
Lives of 5, C, D, whether of the fame or different Ages, it would
be^
294 ^^' Doctrine oJ Chances applied
be eafy to determine what A ought to pay to buy off one of the Lives
of jB, C, Z), or any two of them, or to redeem the whole.
For, 1°. if the Life of £> is to be bought off, then from the Value
of the three Lives, fubtrad the Value of the two Lives of fi and C,
and the Remainder is what is to be given to buy off the Life of D.
2°. If the two Lives of C and D were to be bought off, then from
the Value of the three Lives, fubtradl the Life of B, and the Remain
der is what is to be given to buy off thofe two Lives.
Lajily, It is plain that to redeem the whole, the Value of the three
Lives ought to be paid.
PROBLEM XXVIIL
A, wJoofe Life is worth 14 Tears Pur chafe., fuppofeiig In
ter efl at 4 per Cent, is to enjoy an Annuity, of 100 I.
during the Term of '7^1 Years ; B and his Heirs have
the Reverjion of it after the Deceafe of A for the Term
remaining ; to f?id the Value of^ s Expeciation.
Solution.
Since the Life oi A'\s fuppofed to be worth 14 Years Purchafe
when Intereft is at 4 per Cent, it follows from the Tables that A
muft be about 35 Years of Age, therefore find, by the twentyfixth
Propofition, the Value of an Annuity on a Life of 35, to continue
the limited Time of 31 Years ; let that Value be fubtraded from the
Value of an Annuity certain, to continue 3 i Years ; and the Re
mainder will be the Value of the Reverfion.
PROBLEM XXIX.
A is to have a?i Annuity of 100 \' for him and his Heirs
after the failing of any o?ie of the Lives M, P, Q, the
frfl of which is worth i 3 Tears Purchafe., the fecond
1 4, and the third i S , to find the prefent Value of
his ExpeBation, Intereji of Money beijig fuppofed at
4 per Cent.
Solution.
By the Example to Prob. III. it appears, that an Annuity upon the
above 3 joint Lives is worth 7,4 1 Years Purchafe ; let this be fup
pofed
to the Valuation of A'snu it ies. 295
pofed =r R, and let / reprefent the prefent Value of a Perpetuity of
100/. which in this Caf e is 2500/. then the prefent Expectation of
A will be worth i —dR xf. In Words thus;
Multiply the Value of the three joint Lives by the hit ere jl of \\. then
fubtraSfing that ProduB from Unity ^ let the Remainder be multiplied
by the Value of the Perpetuity^ and the ProduB will be the ExpeBation
required.
In this Cafe 7.41, multiplied by 0.04, produces 0.2964, and this
Produdl fubtraded from Unity, leaves 0.7036 ; now this Remainder
being multiplied by 2500, produces 1759/. the Expedlation ol A.
But if the Problem had been, that A fhould not have the Annui
ty before the Failing of any two of thofe Lives; from the Sum of all
the joint Lives combined two and two, fubtradl the double Value
of the three joint Lives, and let the Rem ainder be called T", then the
Expedlation of A will be worth i — d'fxf; now, by the Rules be
fore delivered, we fhall find that the Sum of all the joint Lives com
bined two and two, is 29.06, from which fubtrading the double of the
three joint Lives, 'y/2;. 1 4.82, th e P>.emainder is 14.24. Hence fup
pofing T'= 14.24, then 1 — ^Tx/will be found to be 1076/. and
this is the Value ofA's Expedlation.
Lajlly, If A was not to have the Annuity before the Extincftion of
the three Lives, fuppofe the Value of the three Lives =z V, then the
Expedlation oi A would be worth i—dVy.f, which in this Cafe
is 465/.
PROBLEM XXX.
To determine the Fines to he paid for renewi7ig a?iy Num
ber of Years in a CollegeLeaf e of twenty ; afjd alfo
what Rate of Interejl is made by a Purchafer^ who
may happen to give an advanced Price for the fame,
upon Suppoftion that the Contra&or is allowed 8 per
Cent, of his Money.
Altho' the Problem here propofed does not feem to relate to the
Subjedl of this Book, yet as fome ufetul Conclufions may be derived
from the Solution of it, I have thought fit to infert it in this Place.
Table
2()6 The Doctrine of Chances applied
Table
of Fines.
I
0.2146
8
2.2821
15
2
0.4463
9
2.6792
16
3
0.6965 10
3.1081
17
4
0.9666 11
357^3
18
5
1.2587 12
4'07i5
19
6
14133 13
4.6118
20
7
1.9144
14
5^953
58254
6.5060
7.241 1
8.0349
8.9922
9.8I8I
If a Purchafer gives the Original Contraftor r i Years Purchafe for
his Leafe of 20, he makes above 6 ; per Cent, of his Money.
If he gives 1 2 Years Purchafe for the fame, he makes above 5 /. 8 j.
per Cent, of his Money.
If lie gives 13 Years Purchafe, he makes 4^ per Cent, of his
Money.
PROBLEM XXXI.
To determine the Fines to be paid for renewing any Num
ber of Tears in a Col lege Leafe of One and Twenty ;
as alfo what Rate of Interefi is made by a Purchafer
who may happen to give an advanced Price for thefame^
upon Suppofition that the ContraSlor is allowed 8 per
Cent, of his Money.
Table of Fines.
0.1987
04133
0.6450
0.8952
11653
14574
1. 6120
812,1131
9 2.2808
10 2.8779
ii;3.3o68
12 2>77'^°
13 4.2702
14I4.8105
15
16
^7
18
19
20
21
53940
6.0241
6.7047
7439^
8.2336
9.0909
10.0168
He that gives 1 1 Years Purchafe, inftead of 10.0168 for renevi'ing
his Leafe for 21 Years, makes 61. 16 s. per Cent, of his Money.
He who gives 12 Years Purchafe for the fame, makes very near
5 /. 16 s. per Cent, of his Money.
He who gives 1 3 Years Purchafe for the fame, makes a little more
than 4/. 16 s. per Cent, of his Money.
The
to the Valuation o/" Annuities. 297
The Values of Annuities for Lives having been calculated, in this Book,
upon a Jiippofition that the Payments are made Yearly, and there being
Jbme Occajions wherein it is /lipulated that the Payments Jhould be made
HalfTearly, I have thought Jit to add the tiaoj olio wing Problems; ichereby,
i". // isJJxwn what the HalfYearly Payments ought to be, if the Price
of the Pur chafe is preferved. 2". Hoiv the Price of the Pur chafe ought
to be increafed, if the HalfTearly Payments are required to be the
Half of the Tearly Payments.
PROBLEM XXXII.
An Annuity being given ^ to find what HalfTearly Pay
ments will be equivale?it to it^ when Inter ejl of Money is 4,
^y or 6 per Cent
Solution.
Take Half of the Annuity, and from that Half fubtradl its 1 00th,
or 80th, or 68th Part, according as the Iiitereft is 4, 5, or 6 per Cent.
and the Remainder will be the Value of the Half Yearly Payments
required; thus, if the Annuity was 100/. the Half Yearly Payments
would refpedively be 49/. 10 s. 49/. js. 6d. ^.gl. ^s. 3^. nearly.
PROBLEM XXXIII.
7^e prefent Value of an Annuity being given, to find how
much this prefent Value ought to be increafed, when it
is required that the Payments fljall be HalfTearly, and
alfo one Half of the Tearly Payments^ when Interefi is
at /\., 5, or 6 per Cent.
Sol u T I ON.
To the prefent Value of the Annuity add refpedively its 99th,
79th, or 67th, and the Sums will be the Values increafed.
As there are fome Perfons ivho 7nay be defirous to fee a general Solu
tion of the two lajl Problems, I have thought fit to add what follows.
In the firflof the two lafk Problems, let A be the Yearly Payments
agreed on, and B the Half Yearly Payments required, r the Yearly
Rate of Intereft, then B = 737 x A. In the fecond, let M be the
prefent Value of the Yearly Payments, P the prefent Value of thofe
that are to be Half Yearly, then P= V~' x M.
Qjl Table
298 7^(? Doctrine of Chances applied
Table I.
^he prefent Value of an annuity of one pound, for any Number of Tears
not exceeding 100, Interejl at 3 per Cent.
k:
><
<
><
n
1
Value.
n
en
26
Value.
n
1
Value.
n
76
Value.
I
0.9709
17.8768
259512
29.8076
2
19135
27
18.3270
52
26.1662
77
29.9103
3
2.8286
28
18.7641
53
26.3750
7«
30.0100
4
3.7170
29
19.1884
54
26.5777
79
30.1068
.?
45797
30
19.6004
55
26.7744
80
30.2008
6
54172
31
20.0004
56
26.9655
81
30.2920
7
6.2303
32
20.3887
S7
27.1509
82
30.3806
8
7.0197
33
20.7658
5«
27.3310
l^
30.4666
9
7.7861
34
21.1318
59
27.5058
84
305501
10
8.5302
3 5
21.4872
60
zj.bj^b
«5
30.6311
II
9.2526
36
21.8323
61
27.8404
86
30.7099
12
9.9540
37
22.1672
62
28.0003
ll
30.7863
n
JO. 6350
3«
22.4925
63
28.1557
88
30.8605
14
1 1. 2961
39
22.8082
64
28.3065
89
30.9325
15
11.9379
40
41
23.1148
23.4124
65
66
28.4529
28.5950
90
91
31.0024
16
12.561 1
31.0703
17
13.1611
42
23.7014
67
28.7330
92
31.1362
18
137535
43
23.9819'^
68
28.8670
93
31.2001
»9
14.3238
44
242543
69
28.9971
94
3l.«622
20
14.8775
45
46
24.5187
24.7754
70
71
29.1234
29.2460
95
96
31.3224
21
154150
31.3809
22
159369
47
25.0247
72
29.3651
97
314377
23
16.4436
48
25.2667
73
29.4.807
98
31.4928
24
169355
49
25.5017
74
29.5929
99
315463
25
174131
50
25.7298
7S
29.7018
100
315984
The Value tf the Perpetuity is 331 Yeart Purchafi.
Table
to the Valuation (^/'Annuities.
299
Table II.
Iloe prefent Value of an Annuity of one Pounds to continue fo long as a
Life of a given Age is in being, Intere/l being ejlimated at 3 per
Cent.
Age.
Value
Age.
26
Value
Age.
51
Value
Age.
76
Value
I
1505
ns^
12.26
4.05
2
16.62
27
17.33
52
12.00
77
363
3
17.83
28
ij.xb
53
1173
78
321
4
18.46
29
16.98
54
11.46
79
2.78
5
18.90
19.33
30
31
16.80
56
II 18
10.90
80
87
2.34
6
16.62
1.89
7
19.60
32
16.44
S7
10.61
82
143
8
19.74
33
16.25
58
10.32
83
096
9
19.87
34
16.06
59
10.03
84
0.49
10
19.87
36
15.86
60
61
973
9.42
8;
0.00
11
J 974
15.67
0.00
12
19.60
37
15.46
62
9.11
^3
19.47
38
15.26
^3
8.79
14
1933
39
^S<^S
64
8.46
»s
19.19
40
41
14.84
65
66
8.13
16
19.05
14.63
779
17
18.90
42
14.41
67
745
18
18.76
43
14.19
68
7.10
19
18.61
44
13.96
69
6.75
20
18.46
4?
46
1373
J 349
70
71
6.38
21
18.30
6.01
22
18.15
47
1325
72
563
23
17.99
48
13.01
73
525
24
1783
49
12.76
74
4.85
25
17.66
S<^
12,51
7i
445
Qqa
Table
3CO The Doctrine uf Chances applied
Table III.
He prefent Value of an Annuity of one Pound, for any Number of Yean
not exceeding i oo, Intcrefi at y^ per Cent.
►<
<
H<;
<
n
?5
Value.
n
•t
Value.
n
51
Value.
n
in
76
Value.
J
0.9662
16.8904
23.6286
26.4799
2
1.8997
27
17.2854
52
237958
11
26.5506
3
2.8016
28
17.6670
53
239573
78
26,6190
4
36731
29
18.0358
54
24.1133
79
26.6850
5
45151
30
18.3920
55
24.2641
Ho
26.7488
6
5.3286
31
18.7363
56
24.4097
81
26.8104
7
6.1145
32
19.0689
57
24.5504
82
26.8700
8
6.8740
33
19.3902
58
24.6864
83
26.9275
9
7.6077
34
19,7007
59
24.8178
84
26.9831
lO
8.3166
35
20.0007
60
24.9447
85
27.0368
J X
9.0015
36
20.2905
61
25.0674
86
27.0887
12
96633
37
20.5705
62
25.1859
87
27.1388
13
• 10.3027
38
20.8411
63
25.3004
88
27.1873
M
10.9205
39
21.1025
64
25.41 10
89
27.2341
15
115174
40
41
213551
21.5991
65
66
255178
25.621 1
90
9'
27.2793
16
12.0941
27.3230
17
12.6513
42
21.8349
67
25.7209
92
273652
18
13.1897
43
22.0627
68
258^73
93
27.4060
19
13.7098
44
22.2828
69
25.9104
94
27.4454
20
14.2124
45
46
22.4955
22.7009
70
71
26.0004
26.0873
95
96
274835
21
14.6980
27.5203
22
15.^671
47
22.8994
72
26.1713
97
'^lSSS'^
23
15.6204
48
23.0912
73
26.2525
98
27.5902
24
16.0584
49
23.2766
74
26,3309
99
27.6234
25
16.4815
50
234556
7S
26.4067
100
276554
Thi
Valut
of the Perpetu
ity is
284 Years Pur
chafe.
Table
to the Valuatio?i of At^ f^ u it ies.
301
Table IV.
^he prefent Value of an Annuity of one Pound, fo long as a Life
of a given Age is in being. Inter eft being efi mated ai ^^ per
Cent.
Age.
Value
Age.
26
Value
Age.
51
Value
Age.
76
Value
1
14.16
16. 2«
11.69
3.98
2
'553
27
16.13
52
11.45
77
357
3
16.56
28
15.98
53
11.20
7«
3.16
4
17.09
29
^5^3
54
10.95
79
2.74
5
17.46
30
31
15.68
5f
5^
10.69
80
81
2.31
6
17.82
1553
10.44
1.87
7
18.0^
32
^537
57
10.18
82
1.42
8
18.16
33
15.21
58
9.91
l^
095
9
18.27
34
1505
59
9.64
84
0.48
10
18.27
35
36
14.89
60
61
936
8c
861
0.00
11
18.16
14.71
9.08
0.00
12
18.05
37
14.52
62
8.79
13
17.94
38
H34
63
8.49
14
17.82
39
14.16
64
8.19
ii
17.71
40
4'
13.98
65
66
7.88
7.56
16
1759
'379
'I
17.46
42
^359
67
7.24
18
J733
43
13.40
68
6.91
19
17.21
44
13.20
69
6.57
20
17.09
16.96
45
46
12.99
70
71
622
21
12.78
5^7
22
16.83
47
12.57
72
55^
23
16.69
48
12.36
73
5H
24
16.56
49
12.14
74
477
25
16.42
50
11.92
75
4.38
TabLI:
302
Hoe Doctrine of Chances applied
Table V.
The frej'ent Value of an Anmdty of one Pound, for any Number of Tears
not exceeding i oo, Intereft at 4 per Cent.
I
2
3
4
J,
6
7
8
9
10
J I
12
13
25
16
17
18
»9
20
21
22
23
24
25
►<
Value.
n
to
1
«
0.9615
26
1.8860
27
2.7750
28
3.6298
29
4.4518
30
5.2421
31
6.0020
32
6.7327
33
74353
34
8.1108
35
36
8.7604
9.3850
37
9.9856
38
10.5631
39
1 1. 1 183
40
11.6522
41
12.1656
42
12.6592
43
131339
44
135903
45
46
14.0291
144511
47
14.8568
48
15.2469
49
15.6220
50
^
Value.
n
CO
15.9827
16.3295
52
16.6630
53
169837
54
17.2920
55
56
17.5^^4
178735
57
18.1476
58
18.411 1
59
18.6646
60
57
18.9082
19.1425
62
J9.3678
63
19.5844
64
19.7927
^5
66
19.9930
20.1856
67
20.3707
68
20.5488
69
20.7200
70
7J
20.8846
21.0429
72
21.1951
72
21.3414
74
21482 1
75
Value.
^^■7^75
21.8726
21.9929
22.1086
22.2198
22.3267
22.4295
22.5284
22.6234
22.7148
22.8027
22.8872
22.9685
23.0466
23.1218
23.1940
23.2635
23.3302
2 3 3945
23.4562
235^5^
235727
23.6276
23.6804
n
Pi
70
77
78
79
I2
"87
82
83
84
85
l7
88
89
22.
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Value.
2373 'I
237799
23.8268
23.8720
239153
239571
23.9972
24.0357
24.0728
24.1085
24.1428
241757
24.2074
24.2379
24.26 72
242954
24.3225
24.3486
243736
243977
24.4209
24.4431
24.4646
24.4851
24.5049
Table
to the Valuation ^Annuities. 303
Table VL
the prefenf Value of an Annuity of one Pound y to continue fo long as a
Life of a given Age is in being. Inter ejl being efiimated <2/ 4 per
Cent.
Age.
Value
Age.
Value
Age.
1
Value
Age.
Value
1
1336
26
15.19
51
11.13
76
391
2
H54
27
15.06
52
10.92
77
352
3
1543
28
14.94
53
10.70
78
3. II
4
,5.89
29
14.81
54
IC.47
79
2.70
5
16.21
16.50
31
14.68
H54
56
10.24
80
81
2.28
6
10.01
1.85
7
16.64
32
14.41
S7
^IJ
82
1.40
8
16.79
33
14.27
58
952
83
095
9
16.88
34
14.12
59
9.27
84
0.48
10
16.88
16.79
35
36
13.98
60
61
9.01
8.75
85
86
0.00
11
13.82
0.00
12
16.64
37
n^7
62
8.48
13
i6.6o
38
1352
63
8.20
14
16.50
39
1336
64
7.92
15
16.41
42
13.20
65
7.63
16
16.31
41
13.02
60
733
17
16.21
42
12.85
67
7.02
18
16.10
43
12.68
68
6.71
19
^599
44
12.50
69
639
20
15.89
15.78
45
46
12.32
12.13
70
6.06
21
71
572
22
15.67
47
11.94
72
5.38
23
^S'^S
48
11.74
73
5.02
24
^543
49
1154
74
4.66
25
»53»
50
1134
IS
4.29
Tabli
304 7^^ Doctrine of Chances applied
Table VII.
The prefent Value of an Annuity of one Pound, for any vumber of
Tears not exceeding 100, Intereft at 5 per Cent,
>^.
"<
^
" <
•1
Value.
n
1
26
Value.
n
Value.
76
Value.
J
0.9523
H3751
18.3389
19.5094
2
18594
27
14.6430
52
18.4180
7Z
19.5328
'\
2.7232
28
14.8981
53
18.4934
78
195550
4
35459
29
15.1410
54
18.5651
79
19.5762
<;
43294
50756
■12
31
M3724
55
56
18.6334
80
81
19.5964
6
15.5928
18.6985
19.6156
7
5.7863
32
15.8026
57
18.7605
82
196339
8
6.4632
33
16.0025
58
18.8195
«3
19.6514
9
7.1078
34
16.1929
59
18.8757
84
19.6680
10
7.7212
8.3064
35
36
16.3741
60
61
18.9292
«5
86
19.6838
Ti
16.5468
18.9802
19.6988
12
8.8632
37
16.71 12
62
19.0288
«7
19.7132
13
93935
3«
16.8678
63
19.0750
88
19.7268
14
9.8986
39
17.0170
64
1 9. 1 191
89
19.7398
M
10.3796
10.8377
40
41
17.1590
65
66
19.1610
90
91
19.7522
16
172943
19.2010
19.7640
^7
11.2740
42
17.4232
67
19.2390
92
19.7752
18
1 1.6895
43
175459
68
192753
93
19.7859
IQ
12.0853
44
17.6627
69
19.3098
94
19.7961
20
12. 4622
12.8211
45
46
17.7740
70
71
19.3426
95
96
19.8058
21
17.8800
193739
19.8151
22
13.1630
47
17.9810
72
194037
97
19.8239
23
13.4885
48
18.0771
73
19.4321
98
19.8323
24
13.7986
49
18.1687
74
19.4592
99
19.8403
25
14.0939
5°
18.2559
75
19.4849
1 100
19.8479
Table
io the Valuation of Annuities. 305
Table VIII.
lie prefeiit Value of an Annuity of one Pound, to continue fo long as a
Life of a given Age is in being, Interefl at j per Cent.
Value Age. Value Age
11.96
12.88
26
^337
27
13.28
28
13.18
29
13.09
30
12.99
^I
i2.8a
32
12.78
33
12.67
34
12.56
35
12.45
36
^233
37
12.21
38
12.09
39
11.96
40
11.83
41
11.70
42
11.57
43
1^43
44
11.29
4?
1 1. 14
46
10.99
47
10.84
48
10.68
49
10.51
5°
1035
R r
Tablb
3o6 The Doctrine of Chances applied
Table IX.
^he prefent Value of an Anmiity of one Pound, for any Number of Tean
not exceeding loo, Inter eft at 6 per Cent.
n
I
2
3
4
_5
6
7
8
9
lO
1 1
12
13
H
ii
16
^7
18
19
20
21
22
23
24J
25
Value.
09433
'•^333
2.6730
34651
4.2123
49«73
55823
6.2097
6.8016
7.3600
7.8868
8.3838
8.8526
9.2949
9.7122
0.1058
0.4772
0.8276
1.1581
1.4699
1.7640
2.0415
23033
25503
27833
^"
<
^
ft
CD
Value.
so
m
51
Value.
70
Value..
26
13.0031
15.8130
16.4677
27
13.2105
52
15.8613
77
16.4790
28
13.4061
53
15.9069
78
16.4896
29
135907
54
M9499
79
16.4996
30
i3.764>^
55
56
15.9905
80
81
16.5091
31
13.9290
16.0288
16.5180
32
14.0840
S7
16.0649
82
16.5264
33
14.2302
58
16.0989
83
16.5343
34
14.3681
59
16.1311
84
16.5418
35
14.4982
60
61
16.1614
85
86
16.5489
36
14.6209
16.1900
16.5556
37
H7367
62
16.2170
87
16.5618
38
14.8460
63
16.2424
88
16.5678
39
14.9490
64
16.2664
89
16.5734
4.0
15.0462
65
66
16.2891
90
9^
16.5786
41
15.1380
16.3104
16.5836
42
15.2245
67
16.3306
92
16.5883
43
15.3061
68
16.3496
93
16.5928
44
153831
69
16.3676
94
16.5969
45
154558
70
71
16.3845
95
96
16.6009
^
155243
16.4005
16.6046
47
15.5890
72
16.4155
97
16.6081
48
15.6500
73
16.4297
98
16.6114
49
^57°75
74
16.4431
99
16.614^
50
15.7618
7S
16.4558
100
16.6175
Tablb
to the FaluatioH of Ahhvities. 307
Table X.
The prefent Value of an Annuity of one Pound, to continue fo long as a
Life of a given Age is in beings Intereji being ejlimated at 6 per
Cent.
Age.
Value
Age.
26
Value'
11.90
Age.
51
Value
Age.
76
Value
I
10.80
934
3.66
2
1153
27
11.83
52
9.20
77
331
3
12.04
28
XI. 76
53
9.04
78
2.95
4
12.30
29
11.68
54
8.90
V^
2.57
5
12.47
12.63
12
31
II. 61
i'53
SI
56
8.72
80
81
2.18
6
8.56
1.78
7
12.74
32
II45
57
8.38
82
1.36
8
12.79
33
11.36
58
8.20
l^
0.92
9
12.84
34
11.60
S9
8.C2
84
0.77
10
12.84
12.79
35
36
11.18
60
61
783
85
86
0.00
1 1
11.09
763
coo
12
12.74
2,7
1 1. 00
62
7.42
13
12.69
38
10.90
63
7.21
H
12.63
39
10.80
64
7.00
15
12.58
40
41
10.70
10.60
65
6.77
16
12.53
66
6.53
17
12.47
42
10.50
67
6.22
18
12.41
43
^o37
68
6.03
^9
12.36
44
10.26
69
S77
20
12.30
ia.23
4T
46
10.14
70
71
550
5.22
2?
10.02
22
12.17
47
9.90
72
493
23
12. II
48
9.76
73
463
24
12.04
49
963
74
432
25
11.97
50
9.49
7S
4.00
R r 2
Note }
3o8 Ihe Doctrine of Chances applied
Note ; The i/?, 3^, 5//', jth and gth Tables ferve like wife to
refolve the Queftions concerning Compound Interejl : as
I.
To find the prefent Value of loool. payable 7 Tears hence, <?/ 3r
per Cent. From the prefent Value of an Annuity of i / certain for
7 Years, which, in Tab. III. is 6. 1 145, I fubtradt the like Value for
6 Years, which is 5.3286; and the Remainder 7859 is the Value
of the ']th Year's Rent, or of i /. payable after 7 Years ; which mul
tiplied by 1000 gives the Anfwer 785 /. \%Jh.
ir.
If it is alked, ischat will be the Amount of the Sum S in 7 Tears
at i^ per Cent ? Having found .7859 as above, 'tis plain the Amount
will be
7*S9
III.
If the Queflion is. In ivhat time a Sum S iti/l be doubled, tripled,
cr increafed in any given Ratio at 3, 3I, &c. per Cent. I take, in
the proper Table, two contiguous Numbers whofe Difference is
neareft the Reciprocal of the i?tf//(j given, as J, j, &c. And the Year
againft the higher number is the Anfwer.
Thus in Tab. I. againft the Years 22, 23, ftand the Numbers
IC.9369 and 16.4436; whofe Difference .5067 being a little more
than .5, or — , fliews that in 23 Years, a Sum aS will be a little lefs
than doubled, at 3 per Cent. Compound Intereft. And againft the
Years 36 and 37 are 21.8323, and 22.1672 ; the Difference whereof
being .3349> nearly ~ , ftiews that in 14 Years more it will be al
moft tripled.
If more exaftnefs is required ; take the adjoining Difference whofe
Error is contrary to that of the Difference found ; and thence com
pute the proportional part to be added or fubtrafted thus, in the laft
of thefe Examples, the Difference between the Years 37 and 38 is
.3252, which wants .0081 of .3333 (=7) . as the other Difference
.3349 exceeded it by .0016. The 38^/6 Year is therefore to be di
vided in the Ratio of 16 to 81 ; that is ^^ of a Year, or about 2
Months, is to be added to the 37 Years.
IV. To.
to the Valuation 0/ AimuiTits. 309
IV.
To find at ivhat Rate of Inter eft I ought to lay out a Sum S, fo as it
may encreafe ^ for Inftance, or become — S /;; 7 Tears. Here th&
Fradion I am to look for among the Differences is — , or the De
4
cimal .j^ ; which is not to be found in Tab. I. or III, till after the
limited Time of 7 Years. But in Tab. V, the Numbers againft 6
and 7 Years give the Difference .7599 ; and the Rate is 4 per Cent.
nearly.
To find how nearly ; we may proceed as under the foregoing Rule.
Take the Difference between 6 and 7 Years in Tab. VII. for f/^r
Cent. ; which being 7107, wanting .0393 of .75, as 7599 exceeded
it by .0099 ; divide Unity in the Ratio of 99 to 393, that is of 33 to
131, and the leffer Part added to 4 per Cent, gives the Rate fought,,
1.7, I
1 104' ''•5
PART
PART II.
Contahiing the Demonjlrat'ions of fome of the principal
fropopitions i?i the foregoing Treatife,
CHAPTER I.
IOhferved formerly, that upon Suppofition that the Decrements
of Life were in Arithmetic Progreffion, the Conclufions derived
from thence would very little vary from thofe, that could be de
duced from the Table of Obfervations made at Brejlaw, concerning
the Mortality of Mankind ; which Table was about fifty Years ago
inferted by Dr. Halley in the Philofophical TranfaSlions, together with
fome Calculations concerning the Values of Lives according to a given
Age.
Upon the foregoing Principle, I fuppofed that if n reprefented the
Complement of Life, the Probabilities of living i, 2, 3, 4, 5, (ifc.
Years, would be exprefled by the following Series, ^^ , ^^ , ^^ ,
'■^ , ^^ , (Sc. and confequently that the Value of a Life, whofe
Complement is «, would be exprefled by the Series
' 4 "^^ 4 ^ 4 "^ \ ^ , (j^c. the Sum of which I have
. Ip
aflerted in Problem L to be — , where the Signification of
O'
the Quantities P and r is explained.
As the Reafonings that led me to that general Exprefllon, require
fomething more than an ordinary Skill in the Doftrine of Series, I fhall
forbear to mention them in this Place j and content myfelf with
pointing out to the Reader a Method, whereby he may fatisfy himfelf
of the Truth of that Theorem, provided he underftand fo much of
a Series, as to be able to fum up a Geometric Progreffion.
Demon
to the Valuation of Annvirits. 311
Demonstration.
Therefore,
And
■:^=L + ilL4^— i.. . . + 1.
Therefore,
rt" n — I r I I I
n n nr nrr nr^ nr'' ' ' ' „^— i
But this is to be divided by r — r, or multiplied by
r— I r ^^ rr ~ ri ~ r* i^ rS ^^ rb > ^'■•
Then multiplying adluaUy thofe two Series's together, the Produ<ft
will be found to be
:Lz1 1 J : ! L.Af^.
nr m r nri nr* ni S nr* '
7I>
^&C.
T^ nri nr* n.s »r« ^'"
«,♦ ~~ «,J ,r° ^'^^
And adding the Terms of the perpendicular Columns together wc
fhall have ^+^^ + ^+^1 J^L . J:z± ^^
nr ' itrr • nr> • ni* • nri I aii *'•'•
which confequently is equal to ^_\ : which was to be demon
ll rated.
If it be required that upon the Failing of a Life, fuch Part of the
Annuity fiiould be paid, as maybe proportional to the Time elapfed
from the Beginning of the laft Year, to the Time of the Life's failing,
then the Value of the Life will be ;^, —^P, wherein a reprefents
the hyperbohc Logarithm of the Rate of Intereft.
But
312 n^e Doctrine (?/" Chances applied
But becaufe there are no Tables printed of hyperbolic Logarithms,
and that the Redudion of a common Logarithm to an liyperbolic is
fomevvhat laborious, it will be fufficient here to fet down the hyper
bolic Logarithms of 1.03, 1035, ^•°4> ^•°5> io6, which are re
fpedively, 0.02956, 0.0344, 0.03922, 0.04879, 0.05825, or
— , — , — , — , — nearly.
35 ' 3' 5' 4' '°3 ^
CHAPTER n.
"Explaining the Rules of combined Lives.
Siippofing a fiditious Life, whofe Number of Chances to continue
in being from Year to Year, are conftantly equal to a, and the Num
ber of Chances for foiling are conftantly equal to b, fo that the Odds
of its continuing during the Space of any one Year, be to its failing in
the fame Interval of Time conftantly as a to b, the Value of an Annuity
upon fuch a Life would be eafily found.
For, if we make aYb=s, the Probabilities of living i, 2, 3, 4, 5,
^e. Years would be reprefented by the Series ^, 11, 1 "
' J > /f > jS »
&c. continued to Eternity , and confequently the Value of an
Annuity upon fuch Life would be exprefled by this new Series
1. _! — i^_ — ^ — I — 1^ &c. which being a geometric Progreffion
perpetually decreafing, the Sum of it will be found to be ~^ :
thus, if a ftands for 21, and b for i, and alfo r for 1.05, the Value
of fuch Life would be ten Years Purchafe.
From thefe Fremifes the following Corollaries may be drawn :
Corollary I.
An Annuity upon a fidlitious Life being given, the Probability of
its continuing one Year in being is alfo given ; for let the Value be
Corollary n.
If a Life, whofe Value is deduced from our Tables is found to be
worth 10 Years Purchafe, then fuch Life is equivalent to a fiditious
Life, whofe Number of Chances for continuing one Year, is to the
Number of Chances for its failing in that Year, as 21 to 1.
C R L
to the Valuation of Ann ui ties. 313
Corollary III.
Wherefore having taken the Value of a Life from our Tables, or
calculated it according to the Rules prefcribed j we may transfer
the Value of that Life to that of a fidlitious Life, and find the Num
ber of Chances it would have for continuing or failing Yearly.
Corollary IV.
And the Combination of two or more real Lives will be very near
the fame as the Combination of fo many correfponding Jikitious
Lives ; and therefore an Annuity granted upon one or more real
Lives, is nearly of the fame Value as an Annuity upon a fiditious
Life.
Thefe things being premifed, it will not be difficult to deterrpine
the Value of an Annuity upon two or three, or as many joint Lives
as may be afligned.
For let X reprefent the Probability of one Life's continuing from
Year to Year, and y the Probability of another Life's continuing the
fame Time ; then according to tlie Principles of the Dodrine of
Chances, the Terms
X)', xxyy, x"^ y^, x^ y'^, x^ y', Zjc.
will refpeftively reprefent the Probabilities of continuing together, i ,
2, 3, 4, 5, Gff. Years J and the Value of an Annuity upon the two
joint Lives, will be ^ + ^ + f _} _i _ ^ ^^.
which being a Geometrical ProgrefTion perpetually decreafing, the
Sum of it will be found to be ~ : let now M be put for the Va
lue of the firfl Life, and P for the Value of the fecond, then by our
firft Corollary It appears that x = ~~ , and y=~ ; and there
fore having written thefe Values of x and y in the Expreflion ■ V ■ ,
which is the Value of the two joint Lives, it will be changed into
a;+, y pjJ,MPr ' "^^^^^ ^s ^^^ ^^^^ Theorem that I had given
in my firft Edition.
It is true that in the Solution of Prcl>. II. I have given a
Theorem which feems very different from this j making the Value
of the joint Lives to be mZ^pztTmT • wherein d reprefents the In
tereft of i /. and yet I may affure the Reader, that this laft Expref
fion is originally derived from the firft ; and that whether one or the
S f othe
314 '^^ Doctrine 0/" Chances applied
other is ufed, the Conclufions will very little differ : but the firft
Theorem is better adapted to Annuities paid in Money, it being
cuftomary that the lafl: Payment, whether it be Yearly or Half
Yearly, is loft to the Purchafer; whereas the fecond Theorem is
better fitted to Annuities paid by a Grant of Lands, whereby the
Purchafer makes Intereft of his Money to the laft Moment of his
Life : for which Reafon I have chofe to ufe the laft Expreflion in my
Book.
By following the fame Method of Inveftigation, we fliall find that
if M, P, ^, denote three fingle Lives, an Annuity upon thofe joint
Lives will be — .^— =i_,2xl— — — — , in the Cafeof Annuities paya
"ble in Money; or mi'^m^+pZ 2 aM ■> ' ^" *^^ ^^^^ °^ Annuities paid
by a Grant of Lands.
CHAPTER III.
Contaim?ig the Demonftration of the Rules given in Pro
blems ^th and e^thy for determining the Value of longefi
Life,
Let X and y reprefent the refpeftive Probabilities which two Lives
have of continuing one Year in being, therefore i — a: is the Proba
bility of the firft Life's failing in one Year, and i — y the Probabi
lity of the fecond Life's failing in one Year: Therefore multiplying
thefe two Probabilities together, the Produdl 1 — x — y\xy will re
prefent the Probability of the two Lives failing in one Year ; and if
this be fubtrafted from Unity, the Remainder a; Ary — ^^y will exprefs
the Probability of one at leaft of the two Lives outliving one Year :
which is fufficient for eftabliftiing the firft Year's Rent.
And, for the fame Reafon xx\yy — xxyy will exprefs the Probabi
lity of one at leaft of the two Lives outliving two Years : which is fuffi
cient to eftablifh the fecond Year's Rent.
From the two Steps we have taken, it plainly appears that the
longeft of two Lives is cxprefiible by the three following Series ;
r T^ rr I r! I r+ ' fS I
+ f+f + 4 + ^+f^'!&c.
xy xxyy fciy'i x*y* jr'^S i
r rr ri r* r' J
Whereof
to the Valuation p/'Annuities. 315
Whereof the firft reprefents an Annuity upon the firft: Life, the fe
cond an Annuity upon the fecond Life, and the third an Annuity up
on the two joint Lives ; and therefore we may conclude that an An
nuity upon the longeft of two Lives, is the Difference between the
Sum of the Values of the fmgle Lives, and the Value of the joint
Lives : which have been exprefled in Problem IV. by the Symbols
M![P—MK
In the fame manner it will be found that if x, y, 2, reprefent the
refpedive Probabilities of three Lives continuing one Year, then the
Probability of their not failing all three in one Year will be exprefled
by x\y\z — xy — xz — yz\xyz ; which is fufficient to ground this
Conclufion, that an Annuity upon the longeft of three Lives, is the
Sum of the fingle Lives, minus the Sum of the joint Lives, plus the
three joint Lives : which has been expreflTed by me, by the Symbols
Aff P1^— mP— M^— 7^f m7^
From the foregoing Conclufions, it is eafily perceived how the
Value of the longeft of any Number of Lives ought to be determined ;
'VIZ. by the Sum of the Values of the fingle Lives, mi/ius the Sum
of the Values of all the joint Lives taken two and two, plus the Sum
of all the joint Lives taken three and three, minus the Sum of all the
joint Lives taken four and four, and fo on by alternate Additions and
Subtra6lions.
CHAPTER IV.
Containing the Demonjiratiojts of what has been faid con
cer?nng Reverjtons, and the Value oj one Life after one
or more Lives.
1°. It plainly appears that the prefent Value of a Reverfion after
one Life, is the Difference between the Perpetuity, and the Value of
the Life in Poffeflion : Thus, if the Life in Poffeffion he worth 14
Years Purchafe, and that I have the Reverfion after that Life, and
have a mind to fell it, I muft have for it 1 1 Years purchafe, which is
the Difference between the Perpetuity 25, and 14 the Value of the
Life, when Money is rated at 4 pe? Cent.
2°. It is evident that the Reverfion after two, three, or more Live?,
is the Difference between the Perpetuity, and the longeft of all the
Lives.
S f 2 But
3^6 'llie iDocTRiNE 6/" Chances applied
But the Value of a Life after one or more Lives not being fo ob
vious, 1 think it is proper to infill: upon it more largely : let x there
fore reprefcnt the Probability of the Expedant's Life continuing one
Year in being, and_)' the Probability of the fecond Life's continuing alfo
one Year in being, and therefore i — y is the Probability of that fe
cond Life's filling in that Year ; from which it follows, according
to the DoiSrine of Chances, that the Probability of the firft Life's
continuing one Year, and of the fecond's failing in that Year, is
X X I — y, or X — xy ; which is a fufficient foundation for drawing the
following Conclufion, 'ciz. that the Value of the firft Life after the
fecond is the Value of that firft Life minm the Valu e of t he two joint
Lives : v/hich I have exprefled by the Symbols M — MP.
In the fame manner, if x, y, z, reprefent the refped tiv e Pro babi
lities of three Lives continuing one Year, then x X i — y X i — z, Will
reprefent the Probability of the firft Life's continuing one Year, and
of the other two Lives failing in that Year ; but the foregoing Ex
preflion is brought, by adual Multiplication, to its Equivalent x — x
y — xz\xyz ; from whence can be deduced by meer Infpedlion the
Rule given in Prob. VIII. "oiz. that the prefent Value of the firft
Life's Expedation after th e Failing of the other two, is
M—MP—'M^YMP^
CHAPTER V.
Containing the Demonjlration of what has been ajferted
in the Solution of the lOth a?td 2(^th Problems.
In the Solution of the loth Problem, M'" denoting the prefent
Value of an Annuity to continue fo long as three Lives of the fame Age
fubfift together, let us fuppofe that n denotes the Number of Years
during which the Annuity will continue ; then fuppofing r to exprefs
the Rate of Intereft, it is well known that the prefent Value of that
I
n
Annuity will be — — — , wherefore we have the Equation M"*=.
— _'" , or making r^ iz=d, M'" = — ^ , from whence will
be deduced ^= i — </M"', and confcquently r" = ■ ^_J,^^„ .
Now let us fuppofe that a Sum / is to be received to eternity at the
equal
to the Valuation <?/ Annuities. 317
equal Intervals of Time, denoted by «, and that we want to find the
prefent Value of it ; it is plain to thofe who have made fome Profi
ciency in Algebra, that —7— is the prefent Value of it, let us there
fore in the room of r" fubftitute its Value found before, viz. \_jyi ■■ »
and then r' — i will be found equal to —^r > ^"^ confequently
J——l:dJ£L x/: as in the Solution of Frob. X.
Now it will be eafy to find n ; for let us fuppofe ^^jj^^T'jthen
r" r=: jT. and therefore n = ^ — .
The 29th Problem has fome Affinity with the loth; in the
former it was required to know the prefent Value of a Sum f, paya
ble at the Failing of any one of three equal Lives, but in the latter
the three Lives are fuppofed unequal ; but befides, it is extended to
two other Cafes, viz. to the prefent Value of a Sum / to be paid
after the Failing of any two of the Lives, as alfo to the prefent Va
lue of a Sum /to be paid after the Failing of the three Lives.
For in the firft Cafe, let us imagine an Annuity to be paid as long
as the three Lives are in being ; or, which is the fame thing, till one
of the Lives fails ; and let us fuppofe that R reprefents the Value ot
the three joint Lives ; let us alfo fuppofe that n is the Number ot
Years after which this will happen, and that d is the Intereft of i /.
therefore 4" is the prefent Value of the Sum /to be then paid ; but
I
R= — 7^, therefore — = i •— d R, and therefore —  :=
i—dR^f.
But the fecond Cafe has fomething more of Difficulty, and there
fore I fhall enlarge a little more upon it : let us imagine now that
there is an Annuity to continue not only as long as the three equal
Lives are in being, but as long as any two of the faid Lives are ia
being ; now in order to find the prefent Value of the faid Annuity, let
us fuppofe that x, y, z, reprefent the refpedive Probabilities of the
faid Lives continuing one Year. Therefore.
1". X y z reprefents the Probability of their all outliving the Year.
2°. xyy. I — z, or xy — xyz reprefents the Probability of the two
firft outliving the Year, and of the third failing in that Year.
3i8 T*he Doctrine o/" Chances applied
3°. xz X I — y or xz — xyz reprefents the Probability of the firfl
and third's outliving the Year, and of the fecond's failing in that
Year.
4°. yxv^x — 2, or^z — xyz reprefents the Probability of the fe
cond and third's outliving the Year, and of the firft's failing in that
Year.
Then adding thofe feveral Produ6ts together, their Sum will be
found equal to xy ■\xz\yz — axyz, which is an Indication that
the prefent Value of an Annuity to co ntinue as long as two of the
faid Lives are in being is WP \M^\^^ — 2MP^, which we
may fuppofe = T.
Let us now compare this with an Annuity certain to continue
n Years, the Rate of Intereft being fuppofed := r, and r — i = ^,
I
then we (hall have the Equation —  — = T, from whence we (hall
find^=i — dT, and confequently ^ , which is the prefent Va
lue of the Expedlation required, is =i — dTyf.
By the fame Method of Procefs, we may find the prefent Value
of an Annuity to continue fo long as any one of the three Lives in
queftion is fubfifting ; for let x, y, z, reprefent the fame things as
before.
1°. xyz reprefents the Probability of the three Lives outliving the
firfl: Year.
2°. xy\xz\yz — ^'^y^ reprefents the Probability of two of
them outliving the Year, and of the third's failing in that Year.
3°. XXI — JX 1 — z, or X — xy — xz\xyz reprefents the Pro
bability of the firft Life's outliving the Year, and of the other two
failing in that Year.
4°. y X I — X X I — z, or y — xy — zy\xyz reprefents the Pro
bability of the fecond Life's outliving the Year, and of the other two
failing in that Year.
5°. 2; X I —AT X I — Jj or z — xz — _yz{xy2r reprefents the Pro
bability of the third Life's outliving the Year, and of the other two
failing in that Year.
Now the Sum of all this is x\y{z — xy — xz — yz\xyZi
which is an Indication that the Value of an Annuity to continue as
lont^ as any one of three Lives is in being ought to be exprefTed by
Mf P{^^jMF—M^}—P^\ MF^: and this laft Cafe may
be looked upon as a Confirmation of the Rule given in our cth Problem.
CHAP
to the Valuation <?/"Annuities. 319
CHAPTER VI.
Containing the Demonjiration of "cohat has been faid con
cerning fuccejftve Lives in the Solution of Prob. XIII.
What has been there faid amounts to this ; The prefent Values of
Annuities certain for any particular Number of Years being given, to
find the prefent Value of an Annuity to continue as long as the Sum of
thofe Years.
Let us fuppofe that M reprefents the prefent Value of an Annuity
to continue n Years, and that P reprefents the prefent Value of an
Annuity to continue p Years ; the firft: Queftion is. how from thefe
Data to find the prefent Value of an Annuity to continue « {/'
Years, the Inveftigation of which is as follows : let r be the Rate of
Intereft, and fuppofe r — i which denotes the Intereft of i /. =1 d ;
I
n
then, 1°. M=:r — f— , therefore ^ = i — dM; and for the
fame Reafon — = i — dF. Therefore "qi^ = 1 — d M %
I — dPr= I — dM— dP \ ddMP. Let now /be fuppofed to
be the Value of the Annuity which is to continue n\p Years, then
~^ —i~df. Therefore i — df= i —dM— dP + ddMP;
then fubtrading Unity on both Sides, dividing all by d, and changing
the Signs, we fliall have/= Af + P — dMP.
2°. By the fame Method of Procefs, it will be eafy to find that
if My P, ^, reprefent Annuities to continue for the refpedlive Num
ber of Years n, p, q, then the Value of an Annuity to continue
n+pVq Years will be M\P\Sl — dMP — dMSlj—dP^
•\ ddMP^: the Continuation of which is obvious.
Let us now fuppofe that the Intervals «, p, q, are equal, then the
Values M, P, ^, are alfo equal ; in which Cafe, the foregoing Ca
non will be changed into this, 3M — idMM\d M, or
— j : but if this Numerator be lubtracted from
Unity, the Remainder will be i — 3J/V/]3iWMM — d^M^=z
I — dM\' ; and fubtrading this again from Unity, the original Nu
merator will be reftored, and will be equivalent to i — i — d M ^y.
and confequently, if M reprefents the Value of an Annuity to con
tinue
320 The Doctrine of Chances applied
7a?»!
tinue a certain Number of Years, then ^ — ' ' ^ ■■ ■ will reprefent the
Value of an Annuity to continue three times as long.
And univerfally, if M ftands for the Value of an Annuity to con
tinue a certain Number of Years, then '~'~'^ — will reprefent the
Value of an Annuity to continue n times as lo ng.
And if n were infinite, I fay that i — di\iy would be r= o ; from
whence the Value would be = ^ or ^ , which reprefents the
Value of the Perpetuity.
But that there may remain no fcruple ab out what w e have afferted
above, that in the Cafe of n being infinite, i — ^Ml" would vanifli j
I prove it thus, ^^M^ therefore i b. ^M, therefore i — ^M is a
Fradtion lefs than Unity : now it is well known that a Fradion lefs
than Unity being raifed to an infinite Power, is nothing, and was
therefore fafely negleded.
CHAPTER VII.
Co72tainifjg the Detnonjlration of what has been afferted in
the 2'2d and 3 3<a^ Problems concerning half yearly Pay
ments \ as alfo the Invefligation offo7ne Theorems relating
to that SubjeB.
It is well known that if an Annuity A is to continne « Years, the
A±
prefent Value of it is ■ ^f ■ j fuppofing r to reprefent the Rate of
Intereft ; now to make a proper Application of this Theorem to
halfyearly Payments, I look upon n as reprefenting indifferently the
Number of Payments and the Number of Years ; let us now fup
pofe a halfyearly Rent B of the fame prefent Value as the former,
and 10 continue as long, then the Number of Payments in this Cale
will be 2;?, but the Rate of Intereft, inftead of being r, is now rr,
which being raifed to the Power 2», will be r" as before ; for which
BIL
Rcafon the prefent Value of the halfyearly Payments is ^ :
n —1
b Jt by Hypothefis, the prefent Values of the yearly and halfyearly
Pay
to the Valuation ^Annuities. 321
A± nJL.
n r
Payments are the famej therefore • ,._[ = . '^ , and dividing
n — f
both fides of the Equation by i ^ , we (hall have =
I
from whence will be deduced 5 = ^[^' x yl : and in the fame
manner, if the Payments were to be made quarterly, then B would
I
be = ^ ■ " ■ ' ■ X ^i and fo on.
r — I
But if we fuppofe that a Rent fhall be paid halfyeaily, and that
it fhall be alfo one half of what would be given for an annual Rent,
and that the two Rents {hall be of the fame Duration ; then the pre
fent Values of the yearly and halfyearly Rents will be different :
for let Mand P be the prefent Values of the yearly and halfyearly
A — — ' \Ai:^
Rents, then M=. '— , and P=—^ , and dividins; both Va
J J I
lues by <^ , we (liall have M, P :: , — '■ — ; and con
fequently P = ^ ^J_ x M.
The two laft Problems bring to my Mind an Affertion which was
maintained, about fix Years ago, in a Pamphlet then publiflied ;
which was that it would be of great Advantage to a Perfon wjio
pays an Annuity, to difcharge it by halfyearly Payments, each of one
half the Annuity in Queftion : the Reafon of which was, that then
the time of paying off the Principal would be confiderably (hortened.
I had not the Curiofity to read the Author's Calculation, becaufe I
thought it too long ; fince which Time I thought fit to examine the
thing, and found that indeed the Time would be fhortened, but not
fo confiderably as the Author imagined : which to prove, 1 fuppofed
a Principal of 2000/. an Annuity of 100/. and the Rate of Interefi:
1.04: in confequence of which, I found that the Principal would be
difcharged in 41 Ycarsj this being founded on the general Theorem
AJ
n
• ^_\ = P, in which A reprefents the Annuity, P the Principal,
r the Rate of Interefl:, and « the Number of Years : now to apply this
to the Cafe of halfyearly Payments, let us luppofe that p denotes the
Number of Years in which the Principal will be difcharged ; there
fore 2 ^ will be the Number of Payments, ^^ the Annuity, and ;•• the
Rate of Interefl : which being refpedively fubflituted in the Room of
T t • ;;.
32 2, 'The Doctrine of Chances applied
», A, r, we fhall have now  . ' ^zP, hutr — 1 = 0.010804,
' rz — I
which being fuppofed = «, we (hall have t4— ^ ■— = m. P, and
— z=z\A — mP, or ^=:_ 10. ■? 02} therefore ^ = — ^ — , or
rP = ''° , and p log. rz=log. 50 — log. 10.392 =0.6822709,
therefore/. = ^^^^ J again, log. r = 0.0170333, therefore /> =:
0.06822700
■'■Sr
 = 4.0.0;: and therefore the Advantage of paying half
0017033} ^ ^ . . ^ ,^ V
yearly would amount to no more than gaining one Year in 41.
Quarterly Payments, or half quarterly, nay even Payments made
at every Inftant of Time, would not much accelerate the Difcharge
oif the Principal. Which to prove, let us refume once more our ge
n
neral Theorem ■ __'' =: P , let us now imagine that the Number
of Inftants in the Year is = /, let us further fuppofe that s is the
Number of Years in which the Principal will be difcharged, then in
the room of yf, writing y^j in the room of r, writing r' ; and
in the room of «, writing s t, we fhall have ^ =: P. But
it is known, that if / reprefents an infinite Number, fuch as is the;
I
Number of Inftants in one Year, then r' — i = y /o^. r, we have,
j — L ^ — r
therefore '_ i__= P. or j^ = Pj let the Logarithm of r
A A
be fuppofed = a^ therefore A  = aP, and— =yf — aP^
and r' = j^p , which fuppofe = ^, then s = ^^ : But it is
to be noted, that a reprefents the hyperbolic Logarithm of r, which,;
is, as we have feen before, 0,0392207 whenr ftands for 1,04; this
being fuppofed, the Logarithm of ^will be found to be 0,6663 794^.,
which being divided by the Logarithm of r viz. 0,0170333, the
Quotient
to the Valuation o/'Annuities. 323
Quotient will be 39,1 Years; but in this laft Operation the Loga
rithms of ^ and r, may be taken out of a common Table.
CHAPTER Vlir.
Containing the Detnonjlration of what has been [aid con
cerning the Probabilities of Survivorpip,
What I call Complement of Life having been defined before pag.
ibi^. I fhall proceed to make ufe of that Word as often as occafion
fhall require.
Hypothesis.
A B C D E F G S
Let it be fuppofed that the Complement of Life A S being divided
into an infinite Number of equal Parts reprefenting Moments, .he
Probabilities of living from A to B, from A to C, from A to D, &c.
are refpedlively proportional to the feveral Complements SB, S C,
S D, in fo much that thefe Probabilities may relpedively be repre
fented by the Fradlions — , — , jj, &c. This Hypothefis being
admitted the foUov^^ing Corollaries may be deduced from it.
Corollary I.
The Probability of Life's failing in any Interval of Time AF is
meafured by the Fradtion — .
Corollary H.
When the Interval ^F is once pafl, the Probability of Life's con
tinuing from F to G is j^ , for at F, the Complement of Life is
FC
S F, and the Probability of its failing is — .
Corollary III.
The Probability of Life's continuing from A to F, and then failing
r n . ^ • ^^ PG FG
fromFtoG, is^X^.^^.
T t 2 COROL
324 Ihe Doctrine of Chances applied
Corollary IV.
The Probability of Life's failing in any two or more equal Inter
vals of Time affigned between A and S are exactly the fame, the
Eftimation being made at A confidered as the prefent Time.
Thefe things premifed, it will not be difficult to folve the following
Problem.
Two Lives being given, to find the Probabilty of one of them fixed
lit on, furvivivi the other.
A Bb S_
'\ I I I
F Cc S
'\ I I I
For, let the Complements of the two Lives be refpedively AS=fT
and FSi=p, upon which take the two Intervals AB, FC=:z, as
alfothe two Moments Bb, Ccr=z.
The Probability of the firft Life's continuing from A to B, or be
yond it, is ^^^ ; the Probability of the fecond's continuing from Fto
C, and then failing in the Interval Cc, is by the third Corollary  :
therefore the Probability of the firft Life's continuing during the
time AB or beyond it, and of the fecond's failing juft at the end of
that Time, is meafured by ^^ ^ J =^ ''~7/~ » whofe Fluent
'"'~^ . 'i  will exprefs the Probability of the firft Life's continuing
during any Interval of Time or beyond it, and of the fecond's failing
any time before or precifely at the end of that Interval.
Let now p be written inftead of z, and then the Probability of the
firft Life's furviving the fecond, will be "^~^^^ r= i — ^ .
From the foregoing Conclufion we may immediately infer that the
Probability of the fecond Life's furviving the firft is ~ .
By the fame method of arguing, we may proceed to the finding the
Probabilityof any one of any Number of given Lives furviving all the
reft, and thereby verifying what we have faid in Prob. XVIII. and XIX,.
CHAPTER
to the Valuation o/Annuities^ 325
CHAPTER IX.
Serving to render the Solutions in this Treatife more ge
neral, and more correEi.
I.
Altho', in treating this fubjedl of Annuities, I have made ufe only
of Dr. Halley's Table, founded upon the Brejlaw Bills of mortality j
from which I deduced the Hypothefis of an equable Decrement of
Life : Yet are my Rules eafily applicable to any other Table of Ob
fervations; by P7ob. II. of my Letter to Mr. yo?ies in Phil. Tranf.
N°. 473, which the Reader may fee below, in the Appendix.
Or inftead of the Theorem there given, he may ufe that by which
Trob. XXVI. was refolved, which is rather more independent of
'Tables : And its application to our prefent purpofe may be explain
ed as follows.
As in all Tables of Obfervations deduced from Bills of mor
tality, or if we fhould combine feveral of them into one, it will be
found that, for certain Intervals at leaft, flie Decretfients of Life con
tinue nearly the fame ; if we conceive the whole Extent of Life to
be reprefented by a right Line AZ., in which there are taken diftances
P^, ^R, RS, &c. proportional to thofe Intervals, and at the
points P, ^, R^ S, &c. there be eredled perpendiculars propor
tional to the Numbers of the Living at the beginning of the re
fpedlive Intervals, and their Extremities are conne(fted by right
Lines ; then there will be formed a Polygon Figure on the Bafe AZ,
whofe Ordinates will every where reprefent the Numbers of that
Table from which the Figure was conftrudted ; and the Inclinations
of the Sides of the Polygon to its Bafe will exprefs the Convergencies of
Life to its End, or the Degrees of Mortality belonging to the refpedive
Intervals.
Say therefore, as the difference of the Ordinates at P and ^^, is to
the Ordinate at P: fo is the Interval P^, to a fourth PZ'; and
PZ' fhall be the Complement of Life at the age P; and the Point Z' in
the Bafe (hall be that from which the Complements are to be reckon
ed throughout the Interval P^
Let PZ', thus found, be fubllituted for n in the Canon o( Prob.
XXVI, and the Interval P^for ;//, fo fhall the Value of that Interval
be known : and in like manner the fubfequent Values of ^, RS,
&c. giving to each Interval its proper Complement S>Z" , RZ"\ &c.
And
2 26 Tloc DocTBi^iE oj Chances applied
And laftly, thefe Values being feverally difcounted, Firjly in the
Ratio of their refpetSive Ordinates at P, ^ i?, .&c. to fome preceding
Ordinate as at N, at the Age I2, for inftance ; and Secondly, by
ll^ie pr^ifent Value of i / payable after the Ypars denoted by NP^
M^, NR, &c. their Sum will be the Falue of the Life at N, ac
cording to the given Table of Obfcrvations. After which, the
younger Lives muft be computed from Year to Year : as thofe after
70, or when an Interval contains but one Year, ought likewife to
be computed.
Jf it is propofed, for Example, to find how nearly my Hypotbefis
agrees with Dr. Hallefs Table for the Interval of 8 Years between
33 and 41, it's Value, at 5 per Cent, computed by Prob XXVI.
vi'ill, to an Annuitant 33 Years old, be 5.9456, according to the Hy
pofhc/is. But the Numbers of the Living at thofe Ages being, in the
Table, 507 and 436, if we compute immediately from it, we muft take
«r= ^—x 8 =57.14; and the fame Rule will give the Value 5.9831.
Difcount now the Values found as belonging to a Life of 1 2 Years ,j
that is multiply the firfl by ^ , and the other by ^~ ; and the Pro
duds 4. 2583 and 46957 difcounted tha fccond time, that is, multi
plied by .35H9, the prefent Value of i /. payable after 21 (=33 — 12)
Years gives the Values 1.5283 and 1.6853; the difference being
o. 1 5 J, near T of a Year's purchafe.
In general, the Hypothcfis will he found to give the Value of a
ftugle Life, or of an alligned Interval, iomewhat below what the Ta
ble makes it : but then, as both the young and the middle aged are
obferved to die off" fafter in England than at Breflaw, my Rules may
very well be preferable, for the Purchafes and Contracts tliat are made
upon fingle Lives in this Country.
In the fame mannei may any other Tabki be compared with the
Hypotbejisy and with one another. And if we give the preference to
any particular Table, and would at the fame time retain the Hypo
tbefis of equal Decrement we may, by the diff'eretJtial Method, eafily
find that mean Ternmiation of Life, Z, which fhall beft correfpond
to the Table.
n.
To preferve fomewhat of Elegance and Ur>iformity in ray Solutions,
as well as to avoid an inconvenient multiplicity of Camm and Symbols^
I did transfer the Decrement of Life from an Arithmeticd to a Geo
metrical
to the Valuation o/" Annuities. 327
metrical Series : which however, in many Queftions concerning
Combined Lives, creates an error too confiderable to be neglefted.
This hath not efcaped tlie Gbfervation of my Friends, no more
than it had my own : but the fame Perfons might have obferved
likewife, that fuch Errors may, when it is thought neceflary, be
correrted by my own Rule?; particularly upon this obvious princi
ple, That, if money 1 s fi'.ppofed to bear no Interejl^ theYzXnts of Lives
'will coincide iscith ivhat I call their Expedations.
But as the Computation of fuch Corrcdions might feem tediousy
and becaufe pradical Rules ought to be of ready Ufe, as well as fuffi
ciently exaft; I chufe rather to give another Rule hv joint Lives y
which will anfwer both thefe Purpofes ; at the fame time that it is
general, and eafily retained in the Memory.
General Rule for the Valuation of joint Lives.
77}e given Ages being each increafed by unity ^.fmd^ by.
Problem XXI. or XXII. the Ntitnber of Tears due to
their joint Continuance ; and the Co7?ipUment of twice
this Number to 86, taken as a piigle Life, will, iff
the proper Table, give nearly the Value required.
Example i.
The Value of two joint Lives of 40 and 50, at 5 per Cent. waSj.r
in Prob. II. found to be 7.62. But if they are made 41 and 51,
their joint ExpeSiation, by Prob. XXI. will be 13 Years, thefe
doubled and taken from 86 leave 60, againft which in Jable VJII,
ftands 8.39 Years purchafe, nearly the Value fought.
Exam pl e 2.
The 3 joint Lives whofe fingle Values, at 4 per Cent, are 13, 14,
15 Years purchafe, are in Prob. II. worth 7.4 1. But by Table VJ,
the Ages to which thefe Values belong, increafed by Unity, arc
42, 36, 28j whofe Complements to 86 fubftituted for />, 7/, ^, in:
7^ T^ + 77^7 ' *^^ Canon for the ExpeSlation of 3 joint Lives,,
gives 12.43. And 86 — 2 X 12.43 is nearly 6i; at which Age a.
fingle Life, in Table VI, is worth 8.75 Years purchafe.
It is needlefs to add any thing concerning longeft Lives, Survivor
Mp^i Reverfom und Infurances , the Computation of tlaeir Values
being;
328 7he Doctrine (?/" Chances applied &c.
being only the combining thofe qI fmgk &nd joint Lives, by Addition
and Subtradion : which being performed according to the Rules of
this Treatife, the Anfwer may be depended upon as fufficiently exadl,
in all ufeful Queftions that can occur. For we do not here aim at
an Accuracy beyond what the determination of our main Data, the
Probabilities of human Life, and the conformity of our Hypothefis
to nature, can bear ; nor do we give our Conclufions for perfedlly
exaft, as is required in fuch as are purely arithmetical, but only as ve
ry near Approximations; upon which bufinefs may be tranfafted,
witiiout confiderable Lofs to any party concerned.
in.
The fame Rule ferves for the Cafe of an Annuify fecured, upon
Joint Lives, by a Grant of Lands j or when the fradional part of the
laft Year is to be accounted for. Only, in this Cafe, 1°. The Addi
tion of Unity to each Life is to be omitted. 2°, The fingle Life is not
■ — Ip
now to be taken out of our Tables, or computed from ^—
the Canon of Prob. I, but from ^^ ^P, a being Neper's Lo
garithm ofr : as in Phil. Tranf.'N°. 473, and in Chap. 1. foregoing.
According to which, if the Ages and Intereft are as in Example i ;
the ExpcSfation of joint Life will be 13.3 Years; and thence n=:
26.6 i P= 14.5358; ^ = .04879: And the Value of the Annuity
20 — 11.2 = 8.8 ; exceeding what it would have been upon yearly
Payments by about ^ of a Year's purchafe.
And if the Payments are half yearly or quarterly, the fkillful Com
putift cannot be at a lofs after what has been faid of thofe Cafes in
Chap. VII *.
* See, on the Subject of Annuities, Mathem. Repofuory., Vol. II. and III. by the
ingenious Mr. James Dodfon, F. R. S.
FINIS.
appendix:
N°. I.
Dedication of the Firjl Edition of this Work (171 8.)
TO
SifTsfXAC Newton^ Kt. Prefident of the Royal Society.
SIR,
THE greateil Help I have received in writing upon this Sub
jedt having been from your incomparable Works, cfpecially
your Method of Series ; I think it my Duty publickly to
acknowledge, that the Improvements I have made, in the matter
here treated of, are principally derived from yourlelf The great
benefit which has accrued to me in this refpe(fl, requires my fhare
in the general Tribute of Thanks due to you from the learned World:
But one Advantage which is more particularly my own, is the Ho
nour I have frequently had oi being admitted to your private Con
verfation ; wherein the Doubts I have had upon any Subjeft relating
to Mathematics, have been refolved by you with the greateft Hu
manity and Condefcenfion. Thofe marks of your Favour are the
more valuable to me, becaufe I had no other pretence to them but
the earneft defire of underftanding your fublime and univerlallv ufeful
Speculations. I fhould think my felf very happy, if ha, ing given
my Readers a Method of calculating the Effe<fls of Chance, as thev
are the refult of Play, and thereby fixing certain Rules, for eftimating
how far fome fort of Events may rather be owing to Defign than
Chance, I could by this fmall Efi"ay excite in others a defire of profe
cuting thefe Studies, and of learning from your Philofophv how to
colledl, by a juft Calculation, the Evidences of exquifite'Wifdoni
and Defign, which appear in the Phenomena of Nature throu<»hout the
Univerfe. I am, with the utraoft Refped:,
Sir, ■' ^ 
Tour moft humble,
and obedient Serva;
U u A. de MoivRE.
* ■ ' .
Nofeu/on Goroll. i. ProU. Klli and upon Prob. IX.
In that Corollary, it was found th at the P robabilities of winn ing
all each others Stakes bemg as a? x^^— ^^ and bf y.ai — bf; If
we divide by^ a — hy and, fuppofe the Chances for on? Gaijne to be
equal, or a = b; then the Probabilities will be as the Number of
pieces, or, in the Ratio of /> to q.
Bnt when we ha,ve to. divide fuch Expreffions continually, that is
by fonW Power ofiz'— >i as^^^r^S ^— ^^^^^ ^^ "^^ will be more
convenient to ufe a General Rule for determining the Value of a Ra
tio whbfe Terms vanifli by the contrariety of Signs. The Rqlc
IS thlS;
For the difference of the ^antities that deflroy each other ip any Cafe,
prop'jfed, write an indeterpiinate ^antity x ; in the Refult rejeSt all
thofe' Terms tUt'v.a7iijf}ikhen.jibecQmes.lefi, than any finite ^antity^:
jofjall the remaining homogeneous Terms, divided by their greatefi com,
mon Meafure, exprej's the Ratio fought.
As in our example, if we mak e ab:=:x, or ar=b\x, and for a^,
ai , write their equals b \ xV, 3+^^ expanded by the Binomial^
Theorem; the Ratio of R to S, in Proi. VII, will be reduced tc^
that of pbi'+f' X X +/. ^+/'? X bf+i' X x^ + See. to qb^'+J'.
xxjg. ^~' X bf+^~Xx^{&ic: Of which retaining only the;
two Terms thu involve x, and dividing them by bf+^'xx, we get
s.
?
The Solution of Prob. IX. gives for the Gain of ^. tji§, Pro4ua>
fubftitute as before, the Terms involving x vanifh in the Numerator
of the firft of thefe Fadors ; reducing it to* *f7X/' + yx
^/+f» X X* + &c : and the Denom inator is * /> j ? X bf+^~' Xx ■\
&c. The other Fador is _^ii±i^±f^, or when x vanifhes with
GL
refpcit to b, ^ i and the Produa: of the two is ^y X
as^
^i p p k N b i k: 5^{
as in Cafe 2. Cafe i follows immediately from this; and the ^d has
as little difficulty.
Another Example of our Rule may bej 'To Jind, from the Capon
of Froh. I. of the Trea'tife on Annuities, the Expedation of a Life
ivhoje Coifiplemefit is ii ; tiiat is, the prefeht Value of a Reyit or Annui
ty upon that Life, money bearifig tio Intereji. Now that Canon being
: — , or — =^= if for P we write" its equal '~'" . . and i Ak
r — I nx'r— I •»• r — \ ' '
for r, the Value fought will be  — ^T^/ — r= * * j,
73T>; x**+ &c.
n— I
This Value wants half a year of ^ > its quantity according to the
Rde given above, pag. aSBr^becaufe there rhe Probabilities of Life
were luppofed to decreafe a the Ofdinates of a Triangle; whereas,
in the Hypothefis of yearly payments Jri Prob, I, they decreafe feir
faltum, like a Series of parallelograms infcribed in a Triangle.
The Reader will likewife obferve that our general Rule for comput
ing the Value of a Fraction wliofe form becomes — , is iii effecfl the
fame as that given by the Marquis de I'Hofpital in his Analyfe des
infnimens petits. And that, from the Number of Terms that va
nifh in the Operation, and from the Sign of the Term which deter
mines the Ratio, the Species of algebraical Curve Lines, and the
Pofition of their Branches, are difcovered. See Mac Laurin'i Fluxions,
Book L Chap. 9. and Book IL Chap. 5.
I^ u 2 N° III.
332 APPENDIX,
N°. III.
"Note to Prob, XLV.from Mr. Nicolas Bernoulli, Phil. Tranf. 341.
To find the Probability that a Poule fliall be ended in a given
Number of Games : a Series of Fradions beginning with
2 — I
wbofe Denominators increafe in a double proportion, and the Nu
merator of each Fraction is the Sum of as many next preceding Nu
merators as there are Units in 71 — i, will give the fucceflive Pro
babilities that the Poule fliall be ended precijely in w, 7i\i, n\2,
n^T,, Sec. Games; and confequently if as many Terms of this Se
ries are added together, as there are units in p\i, their Sum will
exprefs the Probability that the Poule (hall be ended at leaft in n \p
Games. For Example, if there are 4 Players, and thence «=3,
we Hiall have this Series ^ , j. ;V' 77 ' ■^' 717 ' 7^' TTI' ^^•
Out of which if we form this other L ^ 1. , ^ , 12. , ^, ^,.
,'°' &c. whofe Terms are the Sums of the Terms of former
Series, thefe laft will {hew the Probability of the Poule ending in 3,
4, 5, 6, &c. Games, at leaft.
N°. IV.
APPENDIX.
ZIZ
N°. IV
A corre6i Table of the Sums of Logarithms
me}it to his Mifcellanea
6.55976.30328.7678. I 46c
18. 38612. 46168. 7770. 470
32.42366.00749.2572. 48c
47.91164.50681.59^1. 49c
64.48307.48724.7^09. 5CC
81.92017.48493.9024. 51c
100.07840.50356.8004. 52c
118.85472.77224.9966. 53r
138. 17193. 57900. 1086. 54c
157.97000.36547.1585. 55c
17S. 2009 1. 76448. 7008. 56c
198. 825. 9.38472. 1977. 57c
219. 81069. 31561. 4815. 58c
241. 12910. 99886. 9689. 59c
262. 75689. 34109. 2616. 6ot
284.67345.62406. 8298. 61C
306.86078.19948.2847. 620
329. 3C297. 14247.9393. 63c
351.98588.98339.3535. 64c
374. 8968S.864CO. 4044. 65c
398.02458 26149 3624. 66c
421.35866.95421.3259 67c
444.8897826514.6048. 6S0
468.6u936.87c56.479 1. 69c
492.50958.6394.6190. 70c
516.58322.09826.1269. 71C
540.82361.20667.5295. 72c
565.22459.20470.1654. 730
589.7804.^.33690.9860. 74G
6i4.4858o.304c;7.7387. 750
6393357232255.0106. 760
66+. 32553. 6S/41. 5328. 77t
689. 45087. 77060. 382S. 78c
714.70764.378465691. 790
740.0919742162.3279. 800
765.6:022 85067.1998. 810
791.22896.82108 465S. 820
816.97493.05636.3600. .830
842 8^506.30337.0506. S40
868. 80641.41777. 2588. 85c
894.8862138085.1630. 860
921.07182.03166.5465. 87
947.36071.70083.752(5. 8S0
9737j050.41416.4i85. 890
1000.23889.09583.9930. 900I.
)C
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9'
100
1 10
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
280
290J
300
310:
320]
330,
340
350
360
370,
380
390
400
410
420
430
440,
450;
, from the Author's Supple
Analytica.
1026 82368.84245.7267.
1 053. 50280. 2 600^.6230.
1080.274:2 85779.2496.
1107.13604.49151.6763.
1 134.08640.85351. 35o8i
1161.12355.00246.5923.
1 188 24576.93048.6770.
i2i545i43ib339625i.
1242.73S96.391 14.8380
1270. 106 5 12561.5931.
J2975536338324.8209.
1325.07790.39038.2121.
1 352.67830.3092 2.049 1.
13S035331 98269.6983..
1408.1 02 28.69662.7 808.
•43592337 9.'^77i' »H.
1463 8 1 561.28607.3923.
1491. 77784.02119. 6951.
1519 8oS95.r40i5 3428.
1547 90787.08720.1888.
1576.07355.61385.9540.
1604.30499 62866.2770.
1632.60 1 2 1.05589.2142.
j66o 96124. 70260.3147.
1 689.38418.13336.1091.
1717.86911.552130134.
1746.41 5 17. 6908 1. 2925.
1775.02151. 70397.9157
1S03. 6873 1.06935.9463.
1832. 41175.49371. 5144
1861.19406.825^2.5655.
1890:03 ^48.96156 3791V'
191892927.78485.4396.
1 947. 8 807 1. 07073. 5663.
197&.S8708. 42376.3542.
2005.9477 1.20 74 1.9 1 5 2.
2035.06192 47899.6883.
2064.22906 92766. 7i82>
2093.44S50 81552.2793.
2122.71961.92143.1027.
2 1 52. 041 79 48752. 701 3
2181.41444, 1 6s 19 4477 .■
2210.8:1697.98139.1145/ '
2240.30884.26218.5633.
2269. 82947. 618 38. 1 577,.
3^;+ APPENDIX.
If we would examine thele Numbers, or continue the Table farther
on, we have that excellent Rule communicated to the Author by
Mr. James Stirlhig ; publiflied in his Supplement to the Mifcellanea
Anaktica, and by Mr. Stirling himlelf in his Methodus Diferentialis,
Prop! XXVIII.
" Let z — {be the lail Term of any Series of the natural Num
*' bers I, 2, 3, 4, 5 ^ — 1; '^ =43429448 '90325 thereci
*' procal of Neper's Logarithm of lo : Then three or four Terms of
" tJiisSerieszLog.z — ^2:— ^^~^ ^TTT^p + 77173^7
" — &c. added to 0.399089934179, &c. which is half the Loga
*' rithm of a Circumference whole Radius is Unity, will be the Sum
«' of the Logarithms of the given Series ; or the Logarithm of the
" Produdt 1x2x3x4x5 xz 1"
The Coefficients of all the Terms after the firft two being formed
as follows.
Put —^ = A
= ^+iojB + 5C
= ^l2i5l35Cl7£)
,,^^=^+36£f i26C+84D+9£;.
&c.
In which the Numbers i, i, I, Sec. 3, 10, 21, 36, &c. 5, 35, 126,
&c. that multiply A, B, C, 6cc. are the alternate Uncia of the odd
Powers of a Binomial. Then the Coefficients of the feveral Terms
wmbe^x^=— ^,T^X^=8i?.ll'x^=ItTl6^.&^
See the general Theorem and Demonftration in Mr. Stirling's PrOpo
lition quoted above.
N". V.
Some Vfeful Cautions.
One of the mofl frequent occafions of Error in managing Pro
blems of Chance, being to allow more or fewer Chances than really
there are ; but more especially in the firft Cafe, for the fault lies com
monly that way, I have in the Introdudion taken great care to fettle
the Rules of proceeding cautioufly in this matter ; however it will not
be amifs to point out more particularly the danger of being miftafccn.
Suppofc
7 '2
I
9.16
I
APPENDIX. n,z.^
Suppofe therefore I have this Queftion propofed ; There are two
Parcels of three Cards, the firft containing King, Queen, and Knave
of Hearts, the fecond the King, Queen, and Knave of Diamonds,
and that I were promifed the Sum S, in cafe that in taking a Card
out of each Parcel, I fhould tai^c out either the King of Hearts, or
tlie King of Diamonds, and that it were required I fliould determine
the value of my Expectation.
If I reafon in tWs manner j the Probability of taking out the King
of Hearts is — , therefore — / is my due upon that account j the
Probability of taking out the King of Diamonds is alfo — , and
therefore that part of my Expedlation is — / as the other was, and
confequently my whole Expedlation is — /; this would not be a le
gitimate way of reafoning : for I was not promifed that in cafe I
fhould take out both Kings, I fliould have the Sum if, but barely
the Sumy.' Therefore we muft argue thus j the Probability of taking
out the King of Hearts is — , the probability of mifllng the King
of Diamonds is — , and therefore the probability of taking out the
King of Hearts, and miffing the King of Diamonds is ^ x — = — ,
for which reafon that part of my Expectation which arifes from the
probability of taking out the King, of Hearts, and milfmg the King
of Diamonds is — /; for the fame reafon that part of my Expedlation
which arifes from the probability of taking the King of Diamonds and
miffing the King of Hearts is — y, but I ought not to be deprived of the
Chance of taking out the two Kings of which the probability is —
and therefore the value of that Chance is —f; for which reafon, the
v^lue of my whole Expedlation is /j /+ /= / which is
lefs by ^y than f.
But fuppofe I were propofed to have if given me in cafe I took
out. both Kings, then this lafl Expcdation wouldbe /,' which
wpuld make the whole value of my Expedation to be f \
One
33^ A P P E N D I X.
One may perceive by this fingle inftance, that when two Events
are fuch, that on the happening of either of them I am to have a
Sum f, the probability of that Chance ought to be eftimated by the
Sum of the ProbabiUties of the happening of each, wanting. the pro
bability of their both happening.
But not to argue from particulars to generals. Let x be the pro
bability of the happening of the firfT:, and y the probability of the
happening of the fecond, then a: x i — y or x — xy will reprefent
the probability of the happening of the firfl: and failing of the fe
cond, and J X 1 — X or^' — xy will reprefent the probability of the
happening of the fecond and failing of the firft, but xy reprefents
the happening of both ; and therefore x — xy\y — xy\xy ov
X _ y — xy will reprefent the probability of the happening of
either.
This conclufion may be confirmed thus ; i — x being the pro
bability of the firft's failing, an d i — y the p robability of the fe
cond's failing, then the Produd i — a; x i — ; or i — x — y\xy
will reprefent the probability of their both failing ; and this being
fubtra6ted from Unity, the remainder, viz. x{y — ^9' will repre
fent the probability of their not both failing, that is of the happen
ing of either.
And if there be three Events concerned, of which the Probabili
ties of happening are refpedively x, y, z, then multiplying i — x
by , y and tliat again by i — z, and fubtrading the Produdl from
Unity, the remainder v'ill exprefs the probability of the happening of
one at lead of them, which confequently will be x \ y ^ z ~ xy
xz yz{ xyz ; and this may be purfued as far as one pleafes,
A difficulty almofl: of the fame nature as that which I have ex
plained is contained in the two following Quellions : the firfl: is
this ;
A Man throwing a Die fix times is promifed the Sum /every time
he throws the Ace, to find the value of his Expedation.
The fecond is this; a Man is promifed the 6um/if at any time
in fix trials he throws the Ace, to find the value of his Expeda
tion.
In the firfl: Queftion every throw independently from any other
is entitled to an Expedation of the Sum/ which makes the value
of the Expedation to be /+ f/+ 7/] 7/+ 7/+ 7/= A
but in the fecond, none but the firfl throw is independent, for
the fecond has no right but in cafe the firfl has failed, nor has
the
APPENDIX, ixi
the third any right but in cafe the two firft have failed, and fo
on ; and therefore the value of the Expedlation being the Sum ex
pected, multiplied by the Sum of the Probabilities of the Ace's be
ing thrown at any time, exclufive of the Probabilities of its having
been thrown before, will be r f '\ — 7~ f \ ~fA ^—^■\
^fJr ^/= ^H that is nearly i/
7776'' ' 4't);6' 46.'';f) •' 3''
We may alfo proceed thus , the probability of the Ace's being
miffed fix times together is— XfX— XtXtXt = —rr~^ >
060000 4*()> '
and therefore the probability of its not being miffed fix times, that
is of its happening fomc time or other in 6 throws is 1 .fo a
= 4^^ , and confequently the value of the Expedtation is ]'^^.'.^ 
as it was found before.
Another Inflance may be, the computing the Odds of the Bet,
That one of the 4 Players at Whifl JJ^all have alcove 4 Trumps. The
Solution one might think was by adding all the Chances (in the Ta
bles pag. 177) which the 4 Gameflcrs have for 5 or more Trumps ;
and this would be true, were every Gamefler to lay for himfclf in
particular. But as it may happen that two of the Gameflcrs have
above 4 Trumps, and yet, as the Bet is commonly laid, only one
Stake is paid, half the Number of thefe lafl Chances (computed by
Prob. XX.) is to be fubtradted : which reduces the Wager nearly
to an equality.
N°. VI.
AJhort method of calculating the value of Annuities on Lives, from Tables
ofObfervations, In a Letter to W. Jones Efi; Phil. Tranf. N\ 473.
Although it has been an eftablifhed cuflom, in the payment of
Annuities on Lives, that the lalt rent is lofl to the heirs of the late
poffeflbr of an annuity, if the perfon happens to die before the ex
piration of the term agreed on for payment, whether yearly, half
yearly, or quarterly : neverthelefs, in this Paf>er I have fuppofed,
that fuch a part of the rent Ihould be paid to the heirs of the late
pofTeffor, as may be exadly proportioned to the titne elapfed between
that of the lafl payment, and the very moment of the Life's expir
ing ; and this by a proper, accurate, and geometrical calculation.
I have been induced to take this method, for the following rea
fons ; firft, by this fuppofition, the value of Lives would receive but
X X an
338 APPENDIX.
an inconfiderable increafe ; fecondly, by this means, the feveral inter
vals of life, which, in the Tables of Obfervations, are found to have
unifomi decrements, may be the better connected together. It is
with this view that I have framed the two following Problems, with
their Solutions.
PROBLEM I.
To find the value of an Annuity, fo circumftantiated, that it JJoall be on
a Life of a given age ; and that upon the jailing oj that lije, fuch a
fart of the rent pall be paid to the heirs of the late pojfejfor of an An
nuity y ai may be exaBly proportioned to the time intercepted between
that of the lafl payment ^ and the very moment of the li fe' s failing.
Solution.
Let n reprefent the complement of life, that is, the interval of
time between the given age, and the extremity of oldage,
fuppofed at 86.
r the amount of i /. for one year.
a. the Logarithm of r.
P the prefent value of an Annuity of i /. for the given time,
^the value of the life fought.
Then —  = ^
r — I an ^^
Demonstration.
For, let 2; reprefent any indeterminate portion of w. Now the Pro
bability of the life's attaining the end of the interval z, and then fail
ing, is to be expreffcd by  , (as {hewn in my book of Annuities
upon Lives) upon the fuppofition of a perpetual and uniform decre
ment of life.
But it is well known, that If an Annuity certain of i /. be paid
J
during the time 2;, its prefent value will be P =  y_^  or — — —
; — I xr
And, by the laws of the Dodrine of Chances, the Expeftation of
fuch a life, upon the precife interval z, will be exprcffed by Z— —
— ^=i ; which may be taken for the ordinate of a curve, whofe area
nr*x.r — I
is as the value of the life required.
In.
APPENDIX. 339
In order to find the area of this curve, let/>=«xr — i ; and
then the ordinate will become y — ~p ■> ^ much more commodious
expreflion.
Now it is plain, that the fluent of the firft part is y ; but as the
fluent of the fecond part is not fo readily difcovered, it will not be im
proper, in this place, to fhew by what artifice I found it ; for I do
not know, whether the fame method has been made ufe of by others :
all that I can fay, is, that I never had occafion for it, but in the parti
cular circumftance of this Problem.
Let, therefore, r' = xj hence 2; Log. r = Log. x ; therefore z
Log. r = (Fluxion of the Log. x =) j , or a z := — ; confequently
and 4 = ^ : but the fluent of ^ is ( ''— z=)
r' axx a.xx ^ ax '
X
»x ' r axx
and therefore the fluent of — ^ will be 4
fr^ ' foe,'
The fum of the two fluents will be T + T^; ^^^> whenz = o, the
whole fluent fhould ber=o; let therefore the whole fluent be ^
p
Now, when 2 = 0, then— = 0, and— becomes — (for r*=i,)
confequently ^ \ q=:o ; and qz=. : therefore the area of
a curve, whofe ordinate is ~ will be f — A — = \ 
p fr "^p ay ' «,y* / /,
I I
I r X — .
r a,p
But P = — — ' , ; therefore i L = r — i x P, and
the expreflion for the area becomes ■ 1 — — — : And putting n in
(lead of z, that area, or the value of the life, will be expreffed by
— ! . ^E. D.
Thofe who are well verfed in the nature of Logarithms, I mean
thofe that can deduce them from the Dodrine of Fluxions and infi
nite Series, will eafily apprehend, that the quantity here called «, is
that which fome call the hyperbolic Logarithm ; others, the natural
Logarithm : it is what Mr. dUs calls the Logarithm whofe modulus
is I : laftly, it is by fome called Nepers Logarithm. And, to fave
the reader fome trouble in the pradice of this laft theorem, the moft:
necefl'ary natural Logarithms, to be made ufe of in the prefent dif
quifition about Lives, are the following : X x 2 If
340 APPENDIX.
If r = I. 04, then will a = o. 0392207.
r=1.05,    a r=: o. 0487901,
r = i.o5,    a ^= o. 0582589.
It is to be obferved, that the Theorem iiere found makes the
Values of Lives a little bigger, than what the Theorem found in the
firft Problem of my book, of Annuities on Lives, does ; for, in the
prefentcafe, there is one payment more to be made, than in the other ;
however, the difference is very inconliderable.
Bur, although it be indifferent which of them is ufed, on the
fuppofition of an equal decrement of life to the extremity of oldage ;
vet, if it ever happens, that we fhould have Tables of Obfervations,
concerning the mortality of mankind, intirely to be depended upon,
then it would be convenient to divide the whole interval of life into
fuch fmaller intervals, as, during which, the decrements of life have
been obferved to be uniform, notwithftanding the decrements in fome
of thofe intervals fhould be quicker, or flower, than others j for then
the Theorem here found would be preferable to the other ; as will be
fhewn hereafter.
That there are fuch intervals, Dr. Hallefs Tables of Obfervations
fufficiently fhew j for inflance ; out of 302 perfons of 54 years of age,
there remain, after 16 years ('that is, of the age of yo) but 142 ;
the decrements from year to year having been conflantly 10 ; and
the fame thing happens in other intervals ; and it is to be prefumed,
that the like would happen in any other good Tables of Obfervations.
But, in order to fliew, in fome meafure, the ufe of the preceding
Theorem, it is neceffary to add another Problem; which, though its
Solution is to be met with in the firfl edition of my book of Annui
ties on Lives, yet it is convenient to have it inferted here, on account
of the connexion that the application of the preceding Problem has
with it.
In the mean time, it will be proper to know. What part of the
yearly rent Jhould be paid to the heirs of the late pofeffor of an Annuity^
as may be exaBly proportioned to the time elapfed between that of the lafl
payment^ and the very moment of the life's expiring. To determine
this, put A for the yearly 'ent; ' for the part of the year intercepted
between the time of the laft payment, and the inflant of the life's fail
ing ; r the amount of 1 1 at the year's end.: then will \Z\" ^ ^^ *^^
fum to be paid^
PRO
APPENDIX. 341
P R O B L E M II.
To find the Value of an Annuity for a limited interval of life, during
which the decrements of life may be cot fide red as equal.
Solution.
Let a and b represent the number of people living in the beginning
and end of the given interval ot years.
s reprefent that interval.
P the Value of an Annuity certain for that interval,
^the Value of an Annuity for life fuppofed to be necclTarily cx
tinft in the time s; or (which is the fame thing) the Value
of an Annuity for a life, of which the complement is s.
Then ^ — x P — ^^will exprefs the Value required.
Demonstration.
For, let the whole interval between a and b be filled up with arith
metical mean proportionals ; therefore the number of people liv
ing in the beginning and end of each year oft' e given interval s will
be reprefented by the following Series ; viz.
a . 1— . . — . C^c. to b.
S S i s
Confequently, the Probabilities of the life's continuing during r,
2, 3, 4, 5, ^c. years will be exprefled by the Series,'
. ————— , . . isc. to — ,
.a J'i sa sa a
Wherefore, the Value of an Annuity of \ I. granted for the time J^
will be exprefled by the Series
sa — n^h . sa — zn'rib ^ sa — % \xh ^ sa — 40+ li ,. . /•
this Series is divifible into two other Series's, n^iz.
J sr ' sr'' ' sri ' s'* 'si'
2d. i X— 1^+ VrT, &c.to^.
a sr ' s> ' sii ' sr* ' J. '
Now, fince the firft of thefe Series's begins with a Term whofe
Numerator is s — l, and the fubfequent Numerators each decrcafe by
unity ; it follows, that the lafl: Term will be = o ; and confequent
ly, that Series exprefl"es the Value of a life necefllxrilv to be ex
tindl in the time s. The fum of which Series may be efleemed as a
given quantity J and is wh^ I have exprefled by the fymbol ^\r.
Problem i.
The
342 APPENDIX.
The fecond Series is the difference between the two following
Series's,_
Where, neglecting the common multiplier  , the firll Series is the
\'alue of an Annuity certain to continue s years; which every mathe
matician knows how to calculate, or is had from Tables already com
pofed for that purpofe : this Value is what I have called P j and the
fecond Series is ^
Therefore ^+  X P— ^will be the Value of an Annuity on a
life for the limited time. ^ E. D.
It is obvious, that the Series denoted by ^ muft of neceflity have
one Term Icfs than is the number of equal intervals contained in s ;
and therefore, if the whole extent of life, beginning from an age
'^iven, be divided into feveral intervals, each having its own particu
lar uniform decrements, there will be, in each of thefe intervals, the
defed of one payment ; which to remedy, the Series ^muft be cal
culated by Problem i .
Example.
Tojind the Value of an Annuity for an age of 54, to continue 16 years^
and no longer.
It is found, in Dr. Halleys Tables of Obfervations, that a is 302,
and b ijz: now « z= ^ = 16 ; and, by the Tables of the Values of
Annuities certain, P^io.^ijy ; alfo (by Problem 1.) ^= ('^ —
— z=) 6.1 168. Hence it follows (by this Problem), that the Value
of an Annuity for an age of 54, to continue during the limited time of
i6 years, fuppofing intereft at 5 per cent, per annum, will be worth
{.^V T X ^— ^— ) ^3365 years purchafe.
From Dr. Hallefs Tables of Obfervations, we find, that from the
age of 49 to 54 inclufive, the number of perfons, exifting at thofe
feveral ages, are, 357, 346, 335' 324, 3^3' 3^2, which compre
hends a fpace of five years ; and, following the precepts before laid
down, we fliall find, that an Annuity for a life of 49, to continue for
the limited time of 5 years, intereft being at 5 per cent, per an?mrn, is
worth 4.0374 years purchafe.
And,
APPENDIX. 343
And, in the fame manner, we (hall find, that the Value of an An
nuity on a life, for the limited time comprehended between the ages
of 42 and 49> is worth 5.3492 years purchafe.
Now, if it were required to determine the Value of an Annuity
on life, to continue from the age of 42 to 70, we muft proceed
thus:
It has been proved, thgit an Annuity on life, reaching from the
age of 54 to 70, is worth 8.3365 years purchafe; but this Value,
being eftimated from the age of 49, ought to be diminiflied on two
accounts: Firft, becaufe of the Probability of the life's reaching
from 49 to 54, which Probability is to be deduced from the Table
of Obfervations, and is proportional to the number of people living
at the end and beginning of that interval, which, in this cafe, will
be found 302 and 357: The fecond diminution proceeds from a dif
count that ought to be made, becaufe the Annuity, which reaches
from 54 to 70, is eftimated 5 years fooner, viz. from the age of 49,
and therefore that diminution ought to be expreffed by ^ ; fb that
the total diminution of the Annuity of 16 years will be expreffed
by the fradion ^^^ , which will reduce it from 8.3365 years pur
chafe to 55259; this being added to the Value of the Annuity to
continue from 49 to 54, viz. 4.0374, will give 95633, the Value
of an Annuity to continue from the age of 49 to 70. For the fame
reafon, the Value 95633, eftimated from the age of 42, ought
to be reduced, both upon account of the Probability of living from
42 to 49, and of the difcount of money for 7 years, at 5 per cent,
per annum, amounting together to 38554, which will bring it down
to 5 7079 ; to this adding the Value of an Annuity on a life to con
tinue from the age of 42 to 49, found before to be 5.3492, the fum
will be 1 1. 0571 years purchafe, the Value of an Annuity to continue
from the age of 42 to 70.
In the fame manner, for the laft 16 years of life, renching from
70 to 86, when properly difcounted, and alfo diminifhed upon the
account of the Probability of living from 42 to 70, the Value of
thofe laft 16 years will be reduced to 0.8 ; this being added to
1 1.057 1 (^^^ Value of an Annuity to continue from the age of 42
to 70, found before), the fum will be 11.8571 years purchafe, the
Value of an Annuity to continue from the age of 42 to 86 ; that is,
the Value of an Annuity on a life of 42 5 which, in my Tables, is but
1 1.57, upon the fuppolition of an uniform decrement of life, from an
age given to the extremity of oldage, fuppofed at 86.
344 APPENDIX.
It is to be obferved, that the two diminutions, abovemention
ed, are conformable to what I have faid in the Corollary to the fecond
Problem of the firfl edition, printed in the year 1724.
Thofe who have fufficient leifure and fkill to calculate the Value
of joint Lives, whether taken two and two, or three and three, in
the fame manner as I have done the firft Problem of this tradl, will be
greatly aflifted by means of the two following Theorems :
If the ordinate of a curve be 4; its area will be rr— ?;r —
If the ordinate of a curve be ^j its area will be ~ — ^ —
N^ vii.
APPENDIX.
N°. VII.
The Probabilities of human Life, accordifig to different Authors.
Table I, by Dr. Hallcy.
345
Age
iving.
Age
1 iving.
1
31
1
Living. ,
523I
A£,e
46
Livinc.
387
^ge Living.
Age
76
I iving. I
78:
i
lOO'
i6
622
61
232
2
89s
'7
61632 515!
17
377
62
222
'7
68
3
79
18
61033 5o;i
+ 8
367
63
212
7«
58
4
76c
19
60434 499
+9
357
/)4
202
79
■' 49
9
73^
.0
59835
*49o
s:o
*346
^5
'I
80
4'
6
7 10
21
59236
481
51
335
06
18.
11
34
7
69.
22
58637
472

3^4
57
17?
'2
28
8
680
23
580
3"
46?
i?
3 '3
68
162
^3
23'
9
67c
574
39
45.
:4
3°^
69 152
H
19
lO
66
^
*56
+0
44 >
ss
*292
70 14^
*
*
1 1
6;;
6
560
41
43"
_ u
282
7^
*,3,
' 2
6+c
27
553
42
427
57
27;
72
I2C
'3
*6 f.
b
546
43
*4>7
5«
267
73
lOy
^4
^^3
^9
539
4.1
407
'9
252
74
9''
icj 6
*:.3'
K
397
6c
24:
75
* '
Table II. by M. Kcrjfeboom.
\ge; Living.
11
1
0^1400
Age
76
Living.
849
Age
Living.
\ge
1 iving.
Age
61
Living.
365
7^
Living.
160
JA.e
91
Livine. \
7
1
1.2^1
3'
699,
46
550
2
'O7.5!
'7
842
32
687'
47
540
!62
356
71
145
92
5
3
1030;
18
855
33
^75,
48
530
h
343
7l
130
93
6
4
993
•9
826
34
665
49
518
,64
329
79
1^5
94
2
9
964
20
817
35
655
50
S^7
'66
3^5
:c
100
95
I i
6
947
2 1
808
36
645
51
495
301
81
87
96
0.6
7
930
22
800
37
635:
52
482
1^7
287'
•>'2
75
97
05
8
913,
23
792
38
625
^^l
470
,68
273
^3
64
98
0..',
9
904
M
783
19
615:
54
458
I99
259
84
SS
99
0.2
10
895
25
772
40
605
S5
446
7°
245I
85
45
100
0.0 1
1 1
8H6
26
76c
41
596
56
434
i7'
231!
86
36
^
12
8781
27
747
42
587
57
421
7^
217
«7
28
13
28
735
y^
578
58
408
I73
203
88
21
H
863;
'9
723
44
569
59
395
174
189
89
^5
K ^ 6
x^
711
45
560
60
382
\7^
^7'^.
90
]0
Tabic II L
34^
A P P E N D I X.
Table III. by M. de Tar deux.
Ag<
1
. iving
—
Ag
iiving
Agf
Living.
Ag.
Living.
Age
Living.
1
**** 2 J
806
4'
650
61
450
81
101
2
«***
22
79^
42
643
62
437
82
85
n
^
1000
23
79c
+3
636
63
423
«3
7'
L
97c
24
782
44
629
64
409
84
59
S
94H
25
11'.
45
622
65
395
«s
48
L
93°
26
766
L
615
66
380
86
38
7
9M
27
IS"^
^7
607
67
364
87
29
<
1
902
2\
75^
48
599
68
347
88
22
9
890
29
742
49
59°
69
329
89
16
IC
880
30
734
5°
581
70
310
90
II
I i
872
31
726
5'
51'
7'
291
91
7
12
866
>2
71^
52
560
72
271
92
4
•3
860
33
71C
53
549
73
251
93
2
4
854
34
702
54
53«
74
231
94
I
15
848
3S
69^
55
526
15
21 1
95
If
842
36
686
5t
514
76
192
96
*
'7
«35
37
678
S7
502
77
'73
97
*
i5
828
3«
671
5«
489
7^
154
98
'^
821
39
664
59
476
79
136
99
2. 814
40
657
6c
463
So
iiH
lool 1
Table IV
by
Meflieurs Smart and Simpfon.
Afc Living,
AgE
Living.
Age Living.
Age
Living.
•4ge
Living,
1
12801
8705
''.
480
33
358
49
212
65
99
2
700
18
474
34
349
50
204
66
93
3
635
19
468
35
340
51
196
67
87
4
600
20
462
36
331
52
188
68
81
5
580
21
455
yj
322
53
180
69
75
6
564
22
448
38
3^3
54
172
70
69
7
551
23
441
39
304
55
,65
71
64
8
541
24
434
40
294
56
158
72
59
9
532
25
426
41
284
51
15'
11
54
10
524
26
418
42
274
58
144
74
49
1 1
517
27
410
43
264
59
137
75
45
12
5JO
28
402
44
255
60
13'
76
41
13
504
29
394
45
246
6]
12
17
38
'4
498
30
385
46
237
62
117
y'b
35
M
492
31
3t6
47
228
6^,
II]
79
32
16
4'<6
32
367
48
22c
64
105
8o
29
Remarks
APPENDIX. 347
Remarks on the foregoing Tables.
The firfl: Table is that of Dr. Halley, compofed from the Bills of
Mortality of the City of Brejlaia ; the beft, perhaps, as well as the
firft of its kind ; and which will always do honour to the judgment
and fagacity of its excellent Author.
Next follows a Table of the ingenious Mr. Kcrffeboom, founded
chiefly upon Regifters of the Dutch Annuitants, carefully examined
and compared, for more than a century backward. And Monfieur de
Parcieux by a like ufe of the Lifts of the French Tontines, or long
Annuities^ has furniflied us Table IH; whofe numbers were likewife
verified upon the Necrologies or mortuary Regifters of feveral religious
houfes of both Sexes.
To thefe is added the Table of Meflieurs Smart and Simpfon, adapt
ed particularly to the City of Lo7idon ; whofe inhabitants, for reafons
too well known, are fhorter lived than the reft of mankind.
Each of thefe Tables may have its particular ufe : The Second or
Third in valuing the better fort of Lives, upon which one would chufe
to hold an Annuity j the Fourth may ferve for London, or for Lives
fuch as thofe of its Inhabitants are fuppofed to be : while Dr Halley'^
numbers, falling between the two Extremes, feem to approach near
er to the general courfe of nature. And in Cafes of combined Lives,
two or more of the Tables may perhaps be ufefully employed.
Befides thefe, the celebrated Monfieur de Biiffon ^ has lately given
us a new Table, from the adtual Obfervations of Monfieur du Pre de
S. Maur of the Fre^ich Academy. This Gentleman, in order to ftrike
a juft mean, takes three populous parifhes in the City of Paris, and
fo many country Villages as furnifh him nearly an equal number of
Lives: and his care and accuracy in that performance have been
fuch as to merit the high approbation of the learned Editor. It was
therefore propofed to add this Table to the reft ; after having purged
its numbers of the inequalities that neceflarily happen in fortuitous
things, as well as of thofe arifing from the carelefs manner in which
Ages are given in to the parifh Clerks ; by which the years that are
multiples of lo are generally overloaded.
But this having been done with all due care, and the whole re
duced to Dr. Hallefi Denomination of icoo Infants of a year old ;
there refulted only a mutual confirmation of the two Tables ; Mr.
du Prfs Table making the Lives fomewhat better as far as 39 years,
and thence a fmall matter worfe than they are by Dr. Halley's.
We may therefore retain this laft as no bad ftandard for mankind
in general; till a better Police, in this and other nations, ftiall furnifh
f Hijioire NaturalJe, tome II.
the
348
APPENDIX.
the proper Data for corre(Si:ing it, and for exprefling the Decrements
of Life more accurately, and in larger numbers.
For which purpofe, the parifh Regifters ought to be kept in a better
manner, according to one or other of the Forms that have been pro
pofed by Authors. Or, if we fuppofe the numbers annually born to
have been nearly the fame for an age part, the thing may be done at
once, by taking the numbers of the living, with their ages, through
out every Parifli in the Kingdom : as was in part ordered fome time
ago by the Right Reverend the Bifhops: but their Order was not uni
verfally obeyed ; for what rcafon we pretend not to guefs. Cert, n it is,
that a Cetifiis of this kind once eftablifhed, and repeated at proper in
tervals, would furnifh to our Governours, and to ourfelves, much im
portant inftruftion of which we are now in a great meafure deftitute :
Efpecially if the whole was diftributed into the proper Clajfes of mar~
ried and u?i»/arriecly indnjlrioui and chargeable Poor, Artificers of eve
ry kind, ManufaBurert^ &c. and if this was done in each County,
City, and Borough, feparately ; that particular ufeful conclufions
might thence be readily deduced; as well as the general ftateof the
Nation difcovered; and the Rate according to which human Life is
wafting from year to year. See, on this fubjedl, the judicious Ob
fervations of Mr. Corbyn Morris, addrefled to Thomas Potter Efq; in
the year 1751.
F J N I S.
d"
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