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Full text of "Employment and unemployment of artists, 1970-1975"

Research Division Report #1 



Employment and 

Unemployment vs> 

of Artists: 1970-1975 



National Endowment 
for the Arts 



I 
I 



Employment and 

Unemployment 

of Artists: 1970-1975 



CONTENTS 



Tables and Figures 
Introduction 



Summary of Employment 

and Unemployment Changes from 1974 to 197 5 



How Many Artists 



Appendix I - Data Reliability and the Standard 

Error 21 



Appendix II - Employment and Unemployment Trends.. 22 
Appendix III - Need for Additional Employment...... 23 



TABLES AND FIGURES 



Table 1 comparison of Unemployment for Selected 
Occupations with all Professional, Tech- 
nical and Kindred Workers: 1974 and 1975 7 

Table 2 Comparison of Unemployment for Writers, 
Artists and Entertainers with all Pro- 
fessional, Technical and Kindred Workers: 
1970 - 1975 8 

Table 3 Total Writers, Artists and Entertainers, 
Growth of Labor Force and Unemployment: 
1970 - 1975 10 

Table 4 Total Labor Force and Unemployment for 

Selected Artistic Occupations and Sex: 1970... 15 

Table 5 Total Labor Force and Unemployment for 

Selected Artistic Occupations and Sex: 1971... 16 

Table 6 Total Labor Force and Unemployment for 

Selected Artistic Occupations and Sex: 1972... 17 

Table 7 Total Labor Force and Unemployment for 

Selected Artistic Occupations and Sex: 1973... 18 

Table 8 Total Labor Force and Unemployment for 

Selected Artistic Occupations and Sex: 1974... 19 

Table 9 Total Labor Force and Unemployment for 

Selected Artistic Occupations and Sex: 1975... 20 

Table 10 Class of Worker of Employed Persons by 

Detailed Occupation and Sex: 1970 25 

Table 11 Self -employment as a Percent of Selected 

Artistic Occupations Labor Force: 1970 26 

Table 12 Employed, Experienced Unemployed, Not in 
Labor Force, But Worked 1960 to 1970, by 
Detailed Occupation and Sex: 1970 28 

Table 13 Persons Not in Labor Force But Last Worked 
in Artistic Occupations 1960 to 1970, as a 
Percent of Selected Artistic Occupation 
Labor Force: 1970 29 

Figure 1 Total Writers, Artists and Entertainers Labor 

Force, Employed and Unemployed, 1970 - 1975... 11 

Figure 2 Diagram of Possible Shifts in Labor Force 

Status Within the Artistic Occupations 27 

-3- 



Introduction 

The employment of persons in artistic occupations and the 
complementary number of unemployed in artistic occupa- 
tions are the subjects of this report. Information about 
unemployment is always more urgent since it is a measure 
of a serious deficiency. However, the two subjects cannot 
be isolated from each other since they are based on the 

same data. The relationship has been described as that 

1/ 
of the doughnut and the hole. 

Compilation of data on the unemployment and employment of 
artists on a base comparable with the data for the total 
U. S. population is possible because of the work of the 
Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
The data used in this report for 1970 is from the 1970 
Census of Population. The data for subsequent years is 
from annualized monthly averages from the monthly Current 
Population Studies conducted for the Bureau of Labor 
Statistics by the Bureau of the census. The Bureau of 



1/ Shiskin, Julius, Commissioner of Labor Statistics, 

"Employment and Unemployment: The Doughnut or the Hole?' 
Monthly Labor Review , February 1976, p. 3. 



-4- 



Labor Statistics has released to the National Endowment 
for the Arts detailed data on artistic occupations for 
1971 - 197 5 that has not been made available through its 
regular publications. 

The style adopted for this report uses tables to present 
the main body of information about employment and unemploy- 
ment. Tables 1-3, and Figure 1, are a summary data 
presentation in simple form. The following Tables 4-9 
are very detailed and provide data that should be help- 
ful to readers interested in the statistical basis for 
the percent unemployment that is reported. The text is 
a brief summary of highlights from the tables. Three 
Appendices with several tables and a figure complete 
the report. This final material is very technical and 
is intended for persons who are specially concerned 
about the reliability of the data and its use for trend 
projection as well as needs for additional research. 

In reading the report, the differences in the data source 
for 1970 and 1971 - 1975 should be remembered. The statis- 
tical reliability of the data for the latter years is much 
less because of the differences in sample size. "Standard 
Errors" are shown in Tables 3-9. The use of this measure 
for data reliability is discussed in the appendices. 



-5- 



Summary of Employment 

and Unemployment changes From 1974 to 197 5 



The most striking observation from the examination of 
employment and unemployment data for the artistic occupa- 
tions is the increase in the total work force that has 
occurred in recent years. In 197 5, the employment of 
artists continued to increase and the total experienced 
Writers, Artists, and Entertainers labor force grew at a 
rate of 5.5%. Changes in unemployment followed the general 
trend of the U. S. population and was substantially greater 
in 197 5 than in 1974. Table 1 summarizes the percent unem- 
ployment for selected artistic occupations in 1974 and 197 5. 
The percent unemployment increased for most of the selected 
occupations and was substantially greater than for all Pro- 
fessional, Technical, and Kindred Workers. The increase 
or decrease in the percent unemployment for these two years 
should be interpreted carefully in the light of the Standard 
Errors shown in Tables 8 and 9 and Appendix II on Employ- 
ment and Unemployment Trends. Table 2 compares percent 
unemployment for Writers, Artists, and Entertainers with 
that of all Professional, Technical, and Kindred Workers 
for the period 1970 - 1975. 



-6- 



TABLE 1 



COMPARISON OF UNEMPLOYMENT FOR SELECTED 
OCCUPATIONS WITH ALL PROFESSIONAL, 
TECHNICAL AND KINDRED WORKERS: 1974 and 1975 



All Professional, Tech- 
nical & Kindred Workers 



1974 



2.3% 



1975 



3.2% 



Change — ' 



+ .9% 



Architects 



2.7% 



5 . 4% 



+2.7% 



Actors 



47 . 4% 



35.0% 



-12.4% 



Authors 



2.1% 



4.3% 



+2.2% 



Dancers 



Designers 



Musicians & Composers 



Painters & Sculptors 



Photographers 



2.3% 


7 . 4% 


+5.1% 


4.1% 


7 . 9% 


+3.8% 


3.2% 


5 . 8% 


+2.6% 


3.8% 


6.2% 


+2.4% 



Data base is too small to provide a meaningful estimate 
1/ See Appendix II and Standard Errors in Tables 8 and 9. 

Source: See Tables 8 and 9 for data source. 



-7- 



TABLE 2 



COMPARISON OF UNEMPLOYMENT FOR WRITERS, 
ARTISTS AND ENTERTAINERS WITH ALL PROFESSIONAL, 
TECHNICAL AND KINDRED WORKERS: 1970 - 1975 





% Unemployment 

Writers, Artists 

& Entertainers 




% Unemployment 
All Professional, 

Technical and 
Kindred Workers 


1/ 

1970 ~ 




4.6% 






1.8% 


2/ 

1971 -' 




7.1% 






2.9% 


2/ 

1972 ~ 




5.6% 






2.4% 


1973 - 




4.8% 






2.2% 


1974 ~ 




4.8% 






2.3% 


1975 - 




7.4% 






3.2% 


1/ Table 51, U 
Population: 


. S. Bureau of 
1970 Subject 


the Census , Census of 
Reports , Final Report 



PC(2)-7A, Occupational Characteristics. 



2/ Unpublished data furnished by the Bureau of 
Labor Statistics. 



-8- 



How Many Artists ? 

In the 1970 Census, the total of Writers, Artists, and 
Entertainers in the labor force was 797,574 persons. The 
Bureau of Labor Statistics data for 1975 is 1,055,000 
persons in the same group. The increase reflects a com- 
pounded annual growth rate for the 5 year period of 5.7%. 
At this rate of growth, the labor force of artists would 
double in a period of about 12.5 years. Data on the 
growth of the artistic occupations labor force for the 
1970 - 1975 period is presented in Table 3. Figure 1 
illustrates graphically the rise in this labor force 
during the period and the changes in the subgroups of 
the unemployed and employed. 

Unemployment of Artists 

For 197 5, the percent unemployment of all Professional, 
Technical, and Kindred Workers is 3.2%. This compares 
with 7.4% for the Writers, Artists, and Entertainers 
occupational group. Among the selected artistic occupa- 
tions in 197 5, the following unemployment rates are 
reported: 

Architects — 5.4%, Actors — 35.0%, Authors — 4.3%, 
Designers — 7.4%, Musicians and Composers — 7.9%, 
Dancers — (inadequate data), Painters and Sculp- 
tors — 5.8%, and Photographers — 6.2%. 

-9- 



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-10- 



FIGURE 1 



TOTAL WRITERS, ARTISTS AND ENTERTAINERS LABOR 
FORCE, EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYED: 1970 - 1975 



1,050,000- 



1,000,000- 



950,000- 



900,000- 



850,000- 



800,000- 



Total Writers, 

Artists & 
Entertainers 
Labor Force 



Employed 

Writers, Artists 

& Entertainers 



100,000- 



50,000- 







— I — 

1970 



Unemployed 

Writers, Artists 

& Entertainers 



1 — 

1971 



— I 

1972 



1 — 

1973 



— I 

1974 



' — I — 

1975 



Source : Table 3 



-11- 



Unemployment of Writers, Artists, and Entertainers as a 
broad occupational group was 4.6% in 1970. In the five 
years since 1970, the percent of unemployment of Writers, 
Artists, and Entertainers fluctuated annually and roughly 
followed the trend in unemployment of all Professional, 
Technical, and Kindred Workers but at a rate 2 to 2^ 
times greater. 

Tables 4-9 present a detailed analysis of the total 
experienced labor force for selected artistic occupa- 
tions, the number and percent unemployed, and Standard 
Errors of the percent unemployed statistics. This data 
is provided for Architects, Actors, Authors, Dancers, 
Designers, Musicians and Composers, Painters and Sculptors, 
and Photographers, for both sexes combined and separately. 
Similar statistics are provided in these tables for the 
larger group of all Professional, Technical, and Kindred 
Workers for comparison. Separate tables are provided for 
each year from 1970 to 1975. 

As a result of the difference in the basis for the 1970 
Census and the annualized averages from the Current 
Population Studies data for the subsequent years, stan- 
dard Errors of percent unemployment are fairly large 
for some of the occupations in 1971 - 1975. Users of 



-12- 



this report are cautioned against plotting an unemploy- 
ment trend line with the data for individual artistic 
occupations reported in Tables 4-9 before considering 
the information in Appendix II, Employment and Unemploy- 
ment trends. 

A very significant observation from the examination of 
the tables for the six years is the very great difference 
in unemployment in the artistic occupations. Unemployment 
is most severe among Actors ranging from a high percentage 
of 47.4% recorded in both 1971 and 1974 to a low of 3 3.4% 
recorded in 1970. The percent unemployment of Actors in 
1975 is 35%, close to the low of 33.4% in 1970, and con- 
trasts with unemployment among the other artistic occupa- 
tions as the only one in which there was a decrease in 197 5 
As the Standard Errors of percent unemployment of Actors 
are fairly high, caution should be taken in making trend 
comparisons. 

Dancers are .second in percent unemployment ranging from a 
low of 14.5% in 1970 to a high of 30% in 1971. The data 
on unemployment of Dancers is considered unreliable except 
for the Census Year 1970 and comparisons with other occupa- 
tions should be limited to that year. This is because of 



-13- 



the relatively small number of Dancers and the difficulty 
of obtaining satisfactory data for this occupational group 
in the sample used for the monthly Current Population 
Studies . 

In contrast to Actors and Dancers, the other selected 
artistic occupations in Tables 4-9 are represented by 
a sufficiently large number of persons in the labor force 
so that the data on percent unemployment is more useful. 



-14- 



TABLE 4 

TOTAL LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT FOR 
SELECTED ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS AND SEX: 1970 



Total 
Experienced 
Labor Force 
(thousands) 


Number 
Unemployed 
(thousands) 


% Unem- 
ployment 


Standard 

Error 
% Unem- 
ployment 


All Professional, Tech- 
nical & Kindred Workers 11,667.0 
Male 6,992.3 
Female 4,674.7 


215.1 

116.4 

98.7 


1.8% 
1 . 7% 
2 . 1% 


.1% 
.1% 
.1% 


Architects 57.1 
Male 54.9 
Female 2 . 1 


0.8 
.7 

.04 


1.4% 
1.3% 
2.0% 


.4% 

.4% 

1.7% 


Actors 14.1 
Male 8.2 
Female 5 . 9 


4.7 
2.6 
2.1 


33.4% 
32.2% 
35.0% 


2 . 2% 
2 . 9% 
3.4% 


Authors 26.0 
Male 18.1 
Female 7 . 9 


1.1 
.7 

.4 


4.1% 
4.1% 
4 . 1% 


.6% 

.8% 

1 . 2% 


Dancers 6.9 
Male 1 . 3 
Female 5 . 7 


1.0 
.3 
.8 


14.5% 
20.9% 
13.3% 


2.2% 
5 . 5% 
2.3% 


Designers 112.3 
Male 85.2 
Female 27.1 


3.5 

2.0 
1.5 


3 . 1% 
2 . 4% 
5 . 5% 


.2% 
.3% 
.7% 


Musicians & Composers 96.5 
Male 63.7 
Female 32.9 


6.5 
5.1 
1.4 


6.7% 
8.0% 
4.1% 


.3% 
.7% 
.7% 


Painters & Sculptors 107.5 
Male 67.9 
Female 39.6 


4.1 
2.0 
2.1 


3.8% 
2.9% 
5 . 3% 


.2% 
.3% 
.6% 


Photographers 66.0 
Male 56.5 
Female 9.4 


2.0 

1.4 

.6 


3.0% 
2 . 4% 
6.7% 


.3% 

.4% 

1.1% 


Source: Table 51, U.S. Bureau of 
1970 Subject Reports, Final Report 


the Census , 
PC(2)-7A, 


Census of Population 
Occupational Charac- 



teristics . 



-15- 



TABLE 5 

TOTAL LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT FOR 
SELECTED ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS AND SEX: 1971 







Total 
Experienced 
Labor Force 
(thousands) 


Number 
Unemployed 
(thousands) 


% Unem- 
ployment 


Standard 

Error 
% Unem- 
ployment 


All Professional, Tech- 
nical & Kindred Workers 11 
Male 6 
Female 4 


,416 
,933 
,483 


331 
188 
143 


2.9% 
2 . 7% 
3.2% 


.1% 
.1% 
.1% 


Architects 
Male 
Female 






70 

67 

3 


1 
1 



1.4% 

1.5% 
* 


.8% 
.8% 


Actors 

Male 
Female 






19 

11 

8 


9 
4 
5 


47.4% 

36.4% 

* 


7.7% 
9 . 1% 


Authors 

Male 
Female 






33 
21 
12 


2 

1 

1 


6.1% 
4.8% 
8.3% 


2.5% 
2.8% 
4.6% 


Dancers 

Male 
Female 






10 
1 
9 


3 
1 
2 


30.0% 
* 

* 


8.7% 


Designers 
Male 
Female 






106 
78 
28 


7 
4 
3 


6.6% 

5.1% 

10.7% 


1.4% 
1.4% 
3.5% 


Musicians & Composers 
Male 
Female 




126 
82 
45 


10 
8 
2 


7.9% 
9.8% 
4.4% 


1.5% 
1.9% 
K 9% 


Painters & Sculptors 
Male 
Female 




130 
82 
48 


5 
2 
3 


3.8% 
2.4% 
6.3% 


1.0% 
1.0% 
2.0% 


Pho toqr aphe r s 
Male 
Female 






81 
67 
13 


4 
2 

1 


4.9% 
3.0% 
7 . 7% 


1.3% 
1.2% 
4.5% 



* Data base is too small to provide a meaningful estimate. 

Source: Unpublished data furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 



-16- 



TABLE 6 

TOTAL LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT FOR 
SELECTED ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS AND SEX: 1972 



Total 
Experienced 
Labor Force 
(thousands) 

All Professional, Tech- 

nical & Kindred Workers 11,741 



Number 
Unemployed 
(thousands) 



282 



% Unem- 
ployment 

2 . 4% 



Standard 

Error 
% Unem- 
ployment 



.1% 



Male 
Female 


7,110 
4,631 


153 
129 


2 . 2% 

2.8% 


.1% 
.1% 


Architects 
Male 
Female 


68 

66 

2 


2 
2 




2 . 9% 
3 . 0% 


1 . 1% 
1 . 2% 


Actors 

Male 
Female 


18 

13 

5 


8 
5 
3 


44.4% 
38.5% 


8 . 1% 
8.7% 


Authors 

Male 
Female 


31 
18 
13 


1 
1 



3 . 2% 

5.6% 
* 


1.9% 
3.4% 


Dancers 


6 

1 
5 


1 


1 


• 





Male 
Female 


* 
* 


— 


Designers 
Male 
Female 


113 
91 
21 


3 
2 

1 


2 . 7% 
2.2% 
4.8% 


.9% 

.9% 

2 . 9% 


Musicians & Composers 
Male 
Female 


130 
92 
39 


9 
8 

1 


6 . 9% 
8.7% 
2.6% 


1.3% 
1 . 8% 
1 . 4% 


Painters & Sculptors 
Male 
Female 


137 
78 
60 


8 
4 
4 


5 . 8% 
5 . 1% 
6 . 7% 


1.3% 
1.4% 
1 . 9% 


Photographers 
Male 
Female 


80 
67 
13 


3 
2 

1 


3 . 8% 
3.0% 
7 . 7% 


1.2% 
1.2% 
4.5% 



* Data base is too small to provide a meaningful, estimate. 

Source: Unpublished data furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 



-17- 



TABLE 7 

TOTAL LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT FOR 
SELECTED ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS AND SEX: 1973 



Total 
Experienced 
Labor Force 
(thousands) 

All Professional, Tech- 
nical & Kindred Workers 1 2 , 037 

Male 

Female 

Architects 



Male 
Female 




Actors 

Male 
Female 




Authors 

Male 
Female 




Dancers 

Male 
Female 




Designers 
Male 
Female 




Musicians & 


Composers 


Male 
Female 




Painters & Sculptors 


Male 
Female 




Photographers 



Male 
Female 



7,186 
4,852 

74 
72 
2 

ii 

7 
8 

39 

18 
20 

10 

3 
7 

125 
98 
27 

129 
88 
41 

141 

80 
60 

76 
63 
13 



Number 
Unemployed 
(thousands) 



260 
120 
141 

1 
1 


7 

3 

4 

1 





2 

1 
1 

2 

1 
1 

9 
6 
3 

5 

3 
2 

1 
1 




% Unem- 
ployment 

2.2% 
1.7% 
2.9% 

1.4% 



1. 


.4% 


1 


k 


43, 


.8% 


i 


«r 


i 


k 


2, 


.6% 


* 


• 


20, 


.0% 


* 


• 


1. 


.6% 


1, 


.0% 


3, 


.7% 


7. 


.0% 


6. 


.8% 


7, 


.3% 


3. 


.5% 


3. 


.8% 


3. 


.3% 


1. 


.3% 



Standard 

Error 
% Unem- 
ployment 



.1% 



.1% 
.1% 



8% 



.8% 



8.3% 



1.5% 



7.5% 



.7% 



» 


.6% 


2, 


.1% 


1, 


.3% 


1. 


.6% 


2. 


. 2%: 


• 


,9% 


1. 


.2% 


1. 


.3% 


« 


.7% 



1 . 6% 



.9% 



* Data base is too small to provide a meaningful estimate. 

Source: Unpublished data furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 



-18- 



TABLE 8 

TOTAL LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT FOR 
SELECTED ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS AND SEX: 1974 







Total 
Experienced 
Labor Force 
(thousands) 


Number 
Unemployed 
(thousands) 


% Unem- 
ployment 


Standard 

Error 
% Unem- 
ployment 


All Professional, Tech- 
nical & Kindred Workers 12, 
Male 7 , 
Female 5 , 


,623 
,482 
,142 


285 
136 
150 


2 . 3% 
1.8% 
2 . 9% 


.1% 
.1% 
.1% 


Architects 
Male 
Female 






73 

71 

2 


2 
2 




2 . 7% 

2 . 8% 
* 


1 . 0% 
1.1% 


Actors 

Male 
Female 






19 

11 

8 


9 
5 

4 


47.4% 

45.4% 
* 


7.2% 
9.7% 


Authors 

Male 
Female 






47 
27 
21 


1 
1 
1 


2.1% 
3.7% 
4.8% 


1.2% 
2 . 1% 
2 . 8% 


Dancers 






7 

1 
5 


2 



1 


* 


__ 


Male 
Female 


• 
* 


— " 


Desiqners 
Male 
Female 






132 
99 
33 


3 

1 
2 


2.3% 
1 . 0% 
6 . 1% 


.8% 

.6% 

2.5% 


Musicians & Compo; 
Male 
Female 


sers 




146 

102 

44 


6 
4 

1 


4.1% 
3.9% 
2.3% 


1.0% 
1.1% 
1 . 3% 


Painters & Sculpt< 
Male 
Female 


Drs 




154 
89 
65 


5 
2 
3 


3.2% 
2 . 2% 
4.6% 


.9% 

.9% 

1 . 5% 


Photoqraphers 
Male 
Female 






79 
67 
13 


3 

1 
1 


3.8% 
1.5% 
7.7% 


1 . 2% 

.9% 
4.5% 



* Data base is too small to provide a meaningful estimate. 

Source: Unpublished data furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 



-19- 



TABLE 9 

TOTAL LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT FOR 
SELECTED ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS AND SEX: 1975 



Total 
Experienced 
Labor Force 
( thous ands ) 



All Professional, Tech- 
nical & Kindred Workers 

Male 

Female 



Architects 
Male 
Female 



Actors 



Male 
Female 



Authors 



Male 
Female 

Dancers 

Male 
Female 

Designers 
Male 
Female 

Musicians & Composers 
Male 
Female 

Painters & Sculptors 
Male 
Female 

Photographers 
Male 
Female 



1 3,173 
7,700 
5,474 

74 

71 
3 

20 

13 

7 

47 

26 
20 

8 
3 

5 

135 

103 

34 

151 

104 

47 

155 
84 
72 

81 

67 
14 



Number 
Unemployed 
(thousands) 



425 
219 
207 

4 
4 



7 

3 
4 

2 

1 

2 

1 
1 

10 
9 
2 

11 
9 

3 

9 

5 

4 

5 
4 

1 



% Unem- 
ployment 

3.2% 
2.8% 
3.8% 

5.4% 

5.6% 
* 

35.0% 

23.1% 
* 

4.3% 
* 

5.0% 



* 
* 

7.4% 
8 . 7% 
5.9% 

7.9% 
8.7% 
6.4% 

5.8% 
5.9% 
5 . 6% 

6.2% 
6.0% 
7.1% 



Standard 

Error 
% Unem- 
ployment 



.1% 



.1% 
.1% 

1.5% 
1 . 6% 



6 . 9% 
7.2% 

1 . 6% 
3.0% 



1.4% 



1. 


.6% 


2. 


.4% 


1. 


.4% 


1. 


.7% 


2. 


.1% 


1, 


.1% 


1. 


.5% 


1. 


.6% 


1. 


.6% 



1.7% 
4.4% 



* Data base is too small to provide a meaningful estimate. 
Source: Unpublished data furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 



-20- 



APPENDICES 



I . Data Reliability and the Standard Error 

"Standard Error" (S. E.) is a commonly used measure 
of sampling variability, that is, a measure of the degree 
of confidence that can be attached to a statistic which is 
estimated by a sampling method rather than a complete count. 

An individual statistic estimated from a sampling pro- 
cedure will vary from the "true" figure that would have been 
obtained from a complete count by an unknown amount due to 
chance. However, if the Standard Error of an estimated num- 
ber is known, statistical theory permits a specific inter- 
pretation of the estimated number's reliability in terms of 
probabilities. There is approximately a 2 out of 3 chance 
(68%) that the difference (either plus or minus) between a 
sample estimate and the true figure is greater than the 
estimate's standard error. There is about a 95% probaba- 
bility that the difference between the estimate and the 
true figure is less than twice the Standard Error. For 
example, (from Table 3), there is approximately a 95% 
probability that the true percent unemployment of all 
Writers, Artists, and Entertainers in 197 5 was between 
6.4% and 8.4% [7.4% - 2 (.5) to 7 . 4% + 2 (.5) J . About 
a 5% chance remains that the true value falls outside 
of this range. This range is sometimes called the "95% 
confidence range," and is a commonly used benchmark as 
an indication of data reliability. The Standard Errors 
shown in this report have been computed using error tables 
furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

A further technical note: The basic concept behind 
the construction of a confidence range in this way requires 
that the sample size be reasonably large. A substantial 
number of the unemployment rates given in Tables 5 through 
9 are based on very small samples and it is not valid to 
interpret a confidence range as more than a rough indication 
of reliability in these cases. For example,, in several 
cases, the lower limit of a 9 5% confidence range would' be 
less than 0% unemployment, obviously an impossibility. This 
problem also arises in cases of moderately large samples 



-21- 



but with a very low estimated rate of unemployment. Even 
in such cases, however, the calculation of a confidence 
range can provide a still useful, though often very crude, 
indication of reliability. As noted in the tables, cases 
marked with an asterisk are based on samples so small that 
neither the percent unemployed nor a measure of its relia- 
bility would be accurate enough to be considered useful. 
Accordingly, all cases in Tables 5-9 with less than 
10,000 persons estimated in the total labor force or 
with zero unemployment are marked by an asterisk in the 
percent unemployed column. 



II . Employment and Unemployment Trends 

Some of the data for individual occupations presented 
in Tables 4-9 indicate substantial changes in unemployment 
from year to year or overall 5 year trends. However, because 
of the data reliability problem arising from the very small 
samples in some cases, most such year to year changes and 
trends cannot be confidently attributed to other than varia- 
tions that would be expected to occur due to chance errors 
in estimation. There are statistical testing procedures 
available to calculate the probability that a particular 
statistic varies from year to year because the true figure 
has varied rather than because of chance fluctuation. 1/ 
A number of the noticeable annual fluctuations in unemploy- 
ment for the individual occupations do not pass these tests, 
and it is generally suggested that Tables 4-9 should not 
be used to plot trend lines. However, the total Writers, 
Artists, and Entertainers in Table 3 can be used to plot 
a trend line because of the improved reliability that results 
from the aggregation of data. This trend line is plotted in 
Figure 1. 



1/ One convenient test uses the Standard Error of the two 
numbers to be compared (S. E.i and S. E.2 ) to compute 
the Standard Error of the estimated difference between 
them (S. E-2 - l). In an identical fashion to the pro- 
cess involving a single statistic, a confidence region 
can be constructed for the difference between the two 
estimates. The formula for the standard error of the 
difference between 2 estimates is: 




S.E. 2 , = -i/(S.E., ) fc + (S.E- 2 ) 

where S. E . ^ and S. E-2 are the standard errors of 
the two estimates. 

-22- 



Ill . Need for Additional Research 

A. Seasonality of Employment . Part of the lore of 
the artistic occupations is seasonality in employment. This 
is thought to be the greatest for Actors, Musicians, and 
Dancers. Similarly, Architects' employment lore suggests 

a broad peak starting at the beginning of the construction 
season and continuing at a fairly high level until late fall 
when construction activity tends to diminish. Other artistic 
occupations such as Painters and Sculptors, Photographers, 
and Designers are believed to have relatively lower degrees 
of seasonality in their employment. The data currently 
available for study is too limited to permit assessment of 
seasonality. The data obtained in the 197 Census was based 
on employment in the week prior to the Census, namely, the 
last week of March, 1970. This might have been a period of 
relatively low employment in the year for artists in the 
performing arts occupations, but was probably a peak period 
of employment for architects. The available data does not 
permit the appropriate adjustments to be made. Therefore, 
the data shown in Table 4 for 1970 may be misleading with 
respect to percent unemployment of Architects, shown at a 
fairly low level of 1.4%, if compared with the annualized 
monthly coverages for 1971 - 1975; and similarly too high 
for Actors, Dancers, and Musicians and composers. The 
data presented for years 1971 through 197 5 is based on an 
annualized monthly average and is not revealing of seasonal 
variations of employment. 

Virtually no research has been done on the subject 
of seasonality in unemployment in the artistic occupations . 
This topic should be part of a broad series of studies to 
acquire a far better understanding of the characteristics 
of employment in the artistic occupations. 

B. Shifts in Employment Status . A general problem in 
the measurement of employment and unemployment is that the 
characteristics and conditions of the work force are not 
static but are constantly changing in many ways. Of par- 
ticular importance in the artistic occupations are multiple 
employment, sometimes referred to an "moonlighting," and 
movements between classifications in which employment and 



-23- 



unemployment are measured. Unfortunately, however, very 
little information is available for analysis. Part of 
the lore of artistic occupations such as Musicians and 
Composers, Painters and Sculptors, and Writers, is that 
many individuals derive their principal income from non- 
artistic occupations. No measure of this condition is 
presently available. In addition, it is believed that 
many persons in artistic occupations frequently shift 
status or maintain a dual status between working for 
wages and s elf -employment . For example, a Musician 
working for wages may also be a self-employed music 
teacher and Painters and Sculptors, and Writers, may 
work at home or in studios as self-employed individuals 
without deriving income for their work for long intervals 
of time. The distinction between an unemployed artist and 
a self-employed artist without income is largely a personal 
self-view. Table 10 shows the numbers of persons in artis- 
tic occupations working for wages or self-employed in 1970, 
while Table 11 shows self -employment as a percent of the 
artistic occupation labor force. Figure 2 diagrams the 
relationships between the several possible categories of 
employed and unemployed individuals in the artist labor 
force. In addition, a very large group of individuals 
are to be found in a group not employed or currently 
seeking employment that are therefore excluded from the 
labor force total. This includes individuals who are 
keeping house, at school, ill, or retired. There are 
undoubtedly substantial shifts between such individuals 
and those who are working for wages, self-employed, and 
unemployed. Table 12 shows the numbers of persons who 
last worked in artistic occupations but were not counted 
in the labor force in 1970, while Table 13 shows the 
persons not counted in the labor force as a percent of 
the labor force. This group exceeded 100,000 individuals 
or about l/8th as large as the artist labor force in 1970. 

Full understanding of the importance of shifts 
of status to the measurement of employment and unemploy- 
ment of artists is not possible with currently available 
information. Substantial additional research is required 
as part of a broad program to improve understanding of the 
artistic occupations. 



-24- 



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-25- 



TABLE 11 

SELF-EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENT OF SELECTED 
ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS LABOR FORCE: 1970 



Architects 30.8% 

Actors 12.4% 

Authors 32.5% 

Dancers 4.1% 

Designers 8.3% 

Musicians & Composers 29.3% 

Painters & Sculptors 28.7% 

Photographers 45.8% 

Source: Table 10 



-26- 



FIGURE 2 

DIAGRAM OF POSSIBLE SHIFTS 

IN LABOR FORCE STATUS WITHIN 

THE ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS 



WORK 
FOR WAGES 



SELF 
EMPLOYED 



I 



In 

V. 



n 



» 



UNEMPLOYED ARTISTS 



I 



1 



NOT EMPLOYED AND NOT 
SEEKING EMPLOYMENT BUT 
LAST WORKED IN AN 
ARTISTIC OCCUPATION 



i 



ARTIST 

LABOR 

FORCE 



NOT COUNTED 

AS PART OF 

THE ARTIST 

LABOR FORCE 



-27- 



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-28- 



TABLE 13 



PERSONS NOT IN LABOR FORCE BUT LAST 

WORKED IN ARTISTIC OCCUPATIONS 1960 

TO 1970 , AS A PERCENT OF SELECTED 

ARTISTIC OCCUPATION LABOR FORCE: 1970 



Architects 10.0% 

Actors 63.3% 

Authors 21.2% 

Dancers 74.2% 

Designers 16.5% 

Musicians & Composers 28.5% 

Painters & Sculptors 22.2% 

Photographers 17.0% 



'o 



'o 



'o 



Source: Table 51, U.S. Bureau of the 
Census, Census of Population: 1970 Sub- 
ject Reports , Final Report PC(2)-7A, 
Occupational Characteristics. 



-29- 



C. Data Frequency . The best data available at the 
present time for the study of employment and unemployment 
of artists are from the decennial censuses conducted by the 
Bureau of the Census. This data is fairly detailed and 
makes possible the study of many aspects of the employment 
and unemployment of artists. However, the ten year interval 
is so great that comparisons from census to census are a 
coarse measure of change. Within the ten year interval, 
the annualized monthly averages data available from the 
Bureau of Labor Statistics provides some interesting infor- 
mation that is helpful in understanding gross trends in 
employment and unemployment for the aggregate group of 
Writers, Artists, and Entertainers and selected occupational 
classifications. This data, however, is less accurate be- 
cause of the sample size and many of the detailed data 
elements of the decennial census are not included. 



A change of the census period from the ten year 
interval to a five year interval beginning with 1985 is now 
proposed in the Authorization Bill for the 1980 Census. 
This change would provide a significant improvement in the 
data available for the study of the artistic occupations. 



I 



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