furman-divergentsia-politsistem

nOJIMTMKA

*ypMAH nOJIMTH'-IECKHX CMCTEM

HA nOCTCOBETCKOM
nPOCTPAHCTBE

C 1972 rofla aMepiocaHCKaa HenpaBHTejibCTBeHHaH opraHM3arp«j «Freedom
House » ny6jiMKyeT esKeroflHbie oneHKM coctohhmh nojiMTWHecKnx m rpa$K-
flaHCKwx CBoSofl bo Bcex CTpaHax Mnpa. OqeHKM BMCTaBJiaioTCH 3KcnepTaMn
Ha ocHOBaHMM flOBOjibHO cjioMCHOM npoueaypbi, no imcajie ot 1 flo 7, rfle 1 —
MaKCMMajibHaa fleMOKpaTMH, a 7 — MaKCMMajibHbiw TOTajiMTapusM 1 . TjiaB-
HbiM npw onpeflejieHMM CTeneroi nojiHTMHecKOM CBo6oflbi hbjihiotch oijeHKM, bo-
nepBbix, Toro, «HacK0JibKO cucTeaia flaer B03MOJKHOCTb CBoBoflHoro BbiSopa M3
icaH,zjM,zjaTOB Ha BJiacTHbie aojdkhoctm u HacKOJibKO He3aBMCMMO ot rocyflap-

CTBa BblflBMraiOTCH CaMM KaHflMflaTbI», a BO-BTOpbIX, HaCKOJlbKO 3TM M36paH-

Hbie MoryT peajitHo npaBMTb 6e3 orpaHiraeHHM co ctopohw Tarcnx HejjeMOK-
paTM^ecKMx nHCTMTyroB, KaK MOHapx, apMMH yum nepKOBb. Ilpn onpeflejieroiH
ypoBHH rpaMCflaHCKoii CBo6op;bi oneHMBaioTCH CBo6ofla cJioBa, co6paHMH, opra-
HH3aipiii, o6pa30BaHMH, pejinrnn, SKOHOMMHecKoii .zjeHTejibHocTM. CTeneHb
rpaMCflaHCKMX m CTeneHb nojiMTMnecKnx cboGoa Bcer^a TecHo CBH3aHbi, ho
TeM He MeHee coBna^aiOT HenojmoCTbio. MaKCMMajibHoe pacxojKfleHwe Mewc-
ffy otjeHKaMM nojiMTMHecKOM m rpaJKflaHCKOM CBoSoflbi MowceT flocniraTb 2 M3
7 nyHKTOB. Ha ocHOBaHMM flaHHbix SKcnepTaMii «Freedom House» oneHOK no
3tmm uiKajiaM, CTpaHbi pa3flejiHK>TCH Ha TpM KaTeropMW. ceo6odHhie (cpeflHHH
oueHKa no o6enM imcajiaM — ot 1 ^o 2,5), nacmuuno c8o6odnhie (ot 3 ao 5) m
Heceo6odHbie (ot 5,5 flo 7) z .

Pa3yMeeTCH, 3KcnepTHwe oqeHKM MoryT 6biTb HeTo*mbiMn — KaK wa-aa
HeflocTaTKa MHtpopMaujiM, TaK m M3-3a npe^yBeMCfleHMM oueHMBaiomHX 3 . Ho

TaKaH HeTOHHOCTb, Ha MOM B3rJlHfl, B03M03KHa JIMIHb B OTHOCPITeJIbHO y3K0M

flnana30He — He Sojiee neM Ha 1 nyHKT U3 7. TpySo roBopn, ynprrejib MOH<eT
nocTaBMTb «neTbipe c MMHycoM» 3a pa6oTy, THHymyio wa «Tpoj«cy c njiiocoM»,
ho HMKaK He «n^Tb» 3a pa6oTy Ha «£BOMKy». MHorfla oneHKH SKCnepTOB
«Freedom House* He nojiHocTbio coBnaflajiw c mohmm co6cTBeHHbiMM npe^-
CTaBjieHHHMM 4 , ho r BnoJiHe flonycKaro, mto on,eHKM SKcnepTOB BepHee.

OneHKM nocTcoBeTCKMM CTpaHaM rsootch «Freedom House» c 1991
rojua — BpeMeHM pacna^a CCCP. Ho 3a tot rofl 6biJiM BbiCTaBJieHbi m o6m,a«
oneHKa no CCCP, m OTfleJibHbie oijeHKM no pecnyBjinKaM. 06man oi^eHKa
CCCP b 1991 ropy m no nojiMTMnecKMM, m no rpajKflaHCKMM CBo6oflaM cocTa-
Bmia 4. TaKMM o6pa30M, CCCP b i^ejioM oqeHMBaJiCH KaK CTpaHa, Haxoflnma-
sicfi Ha nojinyTM ot TOTaJiMTapn3Ma k ^eMOKpaTMM. Ha 3tom cepe^MHe nyTM
OHa w npeKpaTMjia CBOe cymecTBOBaHMe. Xtajiee HaHMHaeTCH — a BepHee,
npoflOJiMcaeTCH, m6o HanaJicfl oh eme «BHyTpn» rop6aneBCKoro CCCP, —
npoijecc flMBepreHquM nojinTuHecKoro pa3BMT*«j oTflejibHbix pecnySjiwK.

B npMBefleHHow Hnnce cboahom TaSjiMi^e flaioTcn nepBan, 1991 ro^a, m
nocJieflHHH, 2003 ro^a, otteHKM nocTCOBeTCKiix CTpaH SKcnepTaMM «Freedom
House ».

4>yPM AH flMHTpMH E(J)MMOBHH rJiaBHblH Hay^HhOT COTpyflHMK IlHCTHTyTa EBpOITbl PAH, flOKTOp HC-

TOpMHeCKHX HayK.

flMBEPrEHmia nOJIMTMHECKMX CMCTEM HA nOCTCOBETCKOM IIPOCTPAHCTBE

15

Ta6ma^a 1.

IlOIIHTHHeCKHe

npaea, 1991

rpaacaaHCKHe
cBo6oabi, 1991

IlonHTHHeCKHe

npaea, 2003

TpaamaHCKHe
cBoSoflbi, 2003

KaTeropmi, 2003

3cT0HHfl

2

3

1

2

CBoSoAHan

JIaTBHH

2

3

1

2

CBo5oflHaa

JlHTBa

2

3

1

2

CBo6cwHaji

HaCTHHHO

MonaoBa

5

4

3

4

CBo50flHbIH
HaCTHHHO

YicpaHHa

3

3

4

4

CB060flHtIH

Hacnnmo

ApMeHIM

5

5

4

4

CBo50ffIIblH

Hacnufflo

rpy3na

6

5

4

4

CB060flHbIH
HaCTHHHO

Pocchji

3

3

5

5

CB060flHMH

A3ep6aiupKaH

5

5

6

5

HccBo6oaHas

Ka3axcTaH

5

4

6

5

HecBo6oaHaa

Idp irons

5

4

6

5

HecBo6oflHaa

Ta^KHKHCTaH

3

3

6

5

HecBo6oAHas

BejiopyccHa

4

4

6

6

HecBo6cwHaji

YsSeKKCraH

6

5

7

6

HccBo6oaHaa

TypKMeHaa

6

5

7

7

HecBo6oflHaa

Ilpouecc AMBepreHi^MM BHfleH us TaCjiMHti flocTaToiHO othctjiiibo. OSme-
coiosr&r oueHKa b 1991 ro^y — 4, pa36poc ou,eHOK OTflejibHwx pecnySjiMK 3a
1991 rofl — ot 2 flO 6 no nojiMTMHecKHM m ot 3 pp 5 — no rpaHCflaHCKMM cbo6o-
3aM. B 2003 rofly stot pa36poc cocTaBjineT yjKe ot 1 so 7 m ot 2 flo 7. IHecTb
crpaH — CTpaHbi BajiTMM, MoJiflOBa, ApMeHMH m Tpy3WH — yjiyHirouiM cbom
oqeHKM; fleBHTb, BKJiiOHaH Pocchio, — yxyanmjiM.

EcTecTBeHHO, hto b paMKax OflHOM CTaTbM HeB03M0MCH0 onwcaTb Bee 15

nOCTCOBeTCKMX nOJIMTMHeCKMX peMCMMOB M npOMCIUeflUIMe B HMX M3MeHeHMH. Ho

KOMMeHTapnw k TaGjinue Bee Mce TpeoyeTCH.

BCE TPM CTPAHH BAJITMM cpaKTMHecKM euje b KOHi^e cobctckom ano-
xm co3flajin nojiMTMHecKwe CHCTeMbi, r#e b paMKax e^MHbix CTa6wJibHbix fleMO-
KpaTMHecKMX «npaBMJi wrpbi» ocymecTBjmeTCH poTauwH BJiaera nepe3 BbiGopbi.
B 3TMX CTpaHax ormo3MUMH m npaBHiipie naprnw yace MHoro pa3 MeHHjiMCb Me-
craMM, m hm pa3y Haxo^HmnecH y BJiaera jiMua m napTiiM He npeflnpMHMMajm

HMKaKMX nOnblTOK He flOITyCTMTb nOJIMTMHeCKMX npOTMBHMKOB K BJiaCTM C nOMO-
mbK) HCnOJIb30BaHMH He3aK0HHbIX MCTOflOB MJIM BHeCeHMH M3MeHCHMM B fleil-

CTByiomee 3aKOHO^aTejibCTBO «no xo^y ^ejia».

CaMOM CBo6oflHOM M3 «HacTMHHO CBo6o^Hbix» crpaH, no oueHKe «Freedom
House», b HaeroHinee Bpeivw jibjihctch ManflOBa. OHa nponuia nepe3 nepwofl
xaoca m rpajKflaHCKoii BOiiHbi, m TeM He MeHee 3#ecb B03HMKJia CMcreMa, npw ko-

a. «s>ypMAH

16

Topoii onno3MUMH MOMceT CTaTb BJiacTbio. CeMnac MojmoBa — e/jMHCTBeHHan
eBponeiicKaH cTpaHa, r^e npaBMT KOMnapTMH, npraneflnian k BJiacTM ^eMOKpa-
TMnecKMM nyTeM m, HacKOJibKO HaM M3BecTHO, He CTpeMHmaflCji 3aKpenwTb CBoe
nojioMceHMe HenpaBOBbiMM MeTo^aMM. Ho McwwoBa, .nance ecjiw oTBJienbCH ot
HajiMHMH npMflHecTpoBCKoro cenapaTMCTCKoro rocyzjapcTBa, — oneHb pacKOJio-
Toe o6mecTBO, rue kohcJvihktbi, npencfle Bcero no npo5jreMaM HauMOH&nbHOM caMO-
HfleHTMCpHKauMM MOJmaBaH (KaK pyMtm mjim KaK caMocroHTejibHOM Haipoi), nocTO-

HHHO BblHOCHTCH Ha yjIHUy. Toft CTaGwjIbHOCTM H «OTJia3KeHHOCTM» fleMOKpaTMHec-
KHX MexaHM3MOB, KOTOpbie CyiUeCTByiOT B BaJTTMM, B MoJlflOBe HeT.

YKpaMHa, ApMeHMH h rpy3MH MMeiOT o/jMHaKOBbie oneHKM m Haxo^HTCH Ha
paBHOM paccTOHHMM m ot ^eMOKpaTM^ecKoro, M OT TOTajIMTapHOrO «nOJlK)COB».

OqeHKM yKpaMHbi CHM3MJincb; b Hanajie 1990-x sto Gmjio 6ojiee CBo6o,aHoe
oGiqecTBO. B 1994 rofly Ha YKpaMHe npoM30iuna nepBan HeMOKpaTMHecKan po-
TauMH BJiacTM (ot JI. KpaBnyica k JI. KyHMe), m npMxo/j k BJiacTM onno3MUMM
Mor CTaTb HanaJioM .qeMOKpaTMnecKoro pa3BHTMH. OflHaKO aroro He npoM30uuio.
3aHHBuiMii nocT rjiaBbi rocynapcTBa b pe3yjibTaTe fleMOKpaTHnecKOM poTauMH
JI. KyHMa m ero OKpyMceHMe CTajin /jejiaTb Bee B03MOMCHoe, HTo6bi He /jonycTMTb
cjie^yiomeM poTauMM, MeHHH no xony aejia «npaBMjia nrpbi» m, bo3mojkho,
pjaTKe npMoeran k KpMMMHajibHbiM MeTo^aM («^eJio roHraa3e»). YicpaMHa ocTa-
eTCH Ha «pacnyTbe», Ha cepe^MHe nyTM, h ee 6yaym.ee pa3BMTMe b CoJibiuow
CTeneHM 6y#eT onpefleJieHO GjiMHcaMiHMMH npe3M;jeHTCKMMM BbiSopaMM.

ApMeHMH 1991 ro^a, Benymaji BoiiHy 3a Kapa6ax, — 3to «BoeHHbrii Jia-
repb» mjim «ocaMc^eHHaH KpenocTb». Ilocjie ycTaHOBjieHMH nepeMMpwa npe3M-
jieuT JI. Tep-IIeTpocHH nbiTajicn coxparorrb 3a co6oii BjiacTb 3anpeTaMH onno-

3MUMOHHbIX napTMM, npeCJie^OBaHMHMJI npOTMBHMKOB M mMpOKOMacniTa6HbIMM

(paJibCM(pMKaqMHMM pe3yJibTaTOB BbiGopoB. O^HaKo «poTaqnH» b ApMeHMH
Bee wee npoM3onuia, xoth m He .qeMOKpaTMHecKMM nyTeM. B 1998 ro^y Tep-
IleTpocHH OTCTpaHneTCH ot BJiacTM nyTeM «MMpHoro BoeHHoro nepeBopoTa»

(yjIbTMMaTyM «CMJIOBMKOB»), pe3yjIbTaTbI KOTOporO 3aT6M JierMTMMM3Mpy-
IOTCH Bbl6opaMM. Ho XOTH 0£HHM M3 o6BMHeHMM, BblflBMHyTblX npOTMB BJiaC-

tm JI. Tep-IIeTpocHHa, GbiJia (pajibCMo^MKauHH pe3yjibTaTOB BbiSopoB, npMine^-
maH eu Ha CMeHy BJiacTb P. KonapHHa TaKwee, m, oneBMflHO, He 6e3 ocHOBaroiM,
oGBMHHeTCH onno3MnMeii b aHaJiorMHHbix no^TacoBKax.

Tpy3MH 1991 ro^a — sto CTpaHa co cJia6biM npe3M^eHTOM c cMJibHbiMM
aBTopMTapHMMM TeHfleHL(MHMM (3. TaMcaxyp^Ma), norpyMceHHaH b coctoh-
HMe aHapxuM. B mreape 1992 rofla npe3M^eHT cBepraeTCH BoopyMceHHbiM nyTeM.
Mhtcmchmkh npM3bmaioT k BJiacTM 6biBinero coBeTCKoro pyKOBOflMTejin Tpy3MM
3. HIeBapflHafl3e, KOTopoMy c 6ojibuiMM Tpy^OM y^aeTCH o6y3flaTb aHapxMio m
ycTaHOBMTb cMCTeMy, npM kotopom onno3Jm,MH oTHOCMTejibHO cboGo^ho cym,e-
CTBOBajia, ho He Morjia npMMTM k BJiacTM, nocKOJibKy pe3yjibTaTbi Bbi6opoB no,q-
BepraJiMCb mwpOKOMacinTa6HOM 4jaJibCM(pMKai^MM. B OKTnGpe 2003 ro^a npoMc-
xoflMT MMpHan «peBOJnou,HH po3», cBeprmaH IIIeBapziHa^se. By^ymee HOBoro
rpy3MHCKoro peMCMMa noxa Heonpe^eJieHHO.

Poccmh ceiiHac — 6jiMMce k TOTajiMTapHOMy, neM k ,n;eMOKpaTMHecKOMy
«noJiiocy». Ee oneHKa (5) Ha neTbipe nyHKTa otctomt ot tom MaKCMMajibHoii
ouemcH .aeMOKpaTMHHOCTM, KOTopyro nojiyHMJin cTpaHbi BaJiTMM, m Ha ^Ba — ot
MaKCMMaJibHoii OLteHKM aBTopMTapM3Ma, nojiyMeHHOM TypKMeroieM. Ha npoTH-
MceHMM 1991 — 2003 totjob OLieHKM Poccmm yxyzjuiMJiMCb Ha ^Ba nyHKTa. Mewc^y
1991 m 2003 ro^aMM MMejrw MecTo KpoBaBbiii nepeBopoT okth5ph 1993-ro, Korfla
B. EjibUMH cmjiom pa3orHaji napjiaMeHT, npMHHTMe Ha coMHMTeJibHOM pecpepeH-
Hyue TjeicaGpH Toro Mce ro^a «cynepnpe3M,o;eHTCKOM» KoHCTMTyu;MM PO, He Me-
Hee coMHMTejibHbie Bbi6opbi 1996 ro^a, nepe^ana npe3M,a;eHTCKMX nojiHOMOHMii
B. IlyTMHy, JiMKBM,a;aitMH mm «OHaroB conpoTMBjieHMH» npe3M,a;eHTCKOM BJiacTM

flUBEPrEHUMH nOJIMTMHECKMX CMCTEM HA nOCTCOBETCKOM IIPOCTPAHCTBE

17

m GbicTpoe npoflBMJKeHMe k oflHonapTMMHOM CMCTeMe. Ecjim bo Bcex crpaHax,
MMeiomMX ceiiHac Jiyumm peiiTMHr, neM Poccmh, 3a nocTcoBeTCKMM nepMOfl Bee
jKe 6mjim poTaqwM BjiacTw (fleMOKpaTMnecKafl, kslk Ha YKpaMHe, mjim «cmjio-
Bbie», KaK b ApMeHMM m rpy3nn), to b Poccmmckom <3>eflepan.MM Ha npOTJJJKeHMM
Bcero nocrcoBeTCKoro nepwo^a ee mctopmm poTaipiM He Gbijio booGihc

A3ep6aM,rtJKaH — CTpaHa, KoropaH b Hanajie nocTCOBeTCKoii snoxw npomjia
nepe3 flBa nepeBopoTa, pe3yjibTaTw KOTopbix Gmjim 3aTeM 3aKpenjieHbi bbiGo-
paMM — nepexofl BJiacTM ot A. MyTaJiw6oBa k HapojjHOMy (ppoHTy bo rjiaBe c
A. 3jibHw6eeM b 1992 roay m ot 3jibHw6e« k T. AjiweBy — b 1994-m. T. AjiweB
awor BbicTpoMTb pewcMM «6e3ajibTepHaTMBHoro npe3MfleHTCTBa», rfle 6e3ajn>-
TepHaTMBHOcTb aocTMraeTca, npejK^e Bcero, <pajibCM<pMKan,HeM pe3yjibTaT0B
Bbi6opoB, MaciiiTa6bi KOTopoii, cyflfl no BceMy, hbjihiotch caMbiMM BnenaTjifl-
ioiummm Ha nocTcoBeTCKOM npocTpaHCTBe. A3ep6aiwKaH — BTopaa nocne Poc-
cmm nocTCOBeTCKaa CTpaHa, r^e 6buia ocymecTBjieHa nepeaana BJiacTM ot npe-
3M^eHTa k Ha3HaHeHHOMy mm npeeMHMKy, m eflMHCTBeHHaa, r^e stmm
npeeMHMKOM CTaji Cbra npe3M^eHTa.

Ka3axcTaH m KwprM3HH, KaK m Poccmh, — crpaHbi, r,n;e 3a Becb noCTCoBeT-
ckhm nepwofl onno3Mi;MH hm pa3y (hm aeMOKpaTMHecKMM, hm CMjioBbiM nyreM)
He npMXOfliuia k BJiacTM (xoth KOHCTMTyuMM TaM MeHHJincb — Bcer^a b CTopoHy
ycMJieHMfl npe3MfleHTCKofi Bjiacra; m H. Ha3ap6aeB, m A. AKaeB ysne ycnejiw no-
npaBMTb npw Tpex pa3Hbix KOHCTMTyu,HHx).

Ta,zpKMKncTaH HanwHaJi c nonbrrKM ycraHOBMTb aeMOKpaTHK), npHBeflineii
k fljiMTejibHofi m KpoBaBow rpaMyjaHCKOM bomhc Cepfaac Taia ycTaHaBJiMBaeTca
pe^cMM, cxohcmm c pewcMMaMM ero cocefleM.

Bejiopyccwfl, KaK m YKpawHa, npoiruia ^epes fleMOKpaTMnecKyio CMeHy
BJiacTM b 1994 rosy, ho, KaK m Ha YKpaMHe, OHa He erajia HanaJioM cwcTeMH, oc-
HOBaHHOM Ha eawHbix «npaBMJiax nrpbi» ajih BJiacTM m onno3MUMM. KaK m
JI. KynMa, A. JlyKameHKO HanpaBMJi cbom ycMJiMH Ha co3flaHne CMCTeMbi, mc-
mnonaioineM no6eay onno3MU.MM, nyreM BHeceHwa M3MeHeHMM b KOHCTMTy-
omio, opraHM3an,MM He#eMOKpaTMHecKMx Bbi6opoB m pecpepeHflyMOB, <pajibCM-
4)MKaqMM mx pe3yjibTaTOB m aKTMBHOro MCnojib30BaHMeM cnencjiy:>K6. IIpM
3Tom ycnexM JlyKameHKO b flejie nocTpoeHMH CMCTeMbi, MCKJironaiomew B03-
MOJKHOCTb JierajibHOM noBeflbi onno3MijMM, 3HanMTeJibH0 6ojibine, neM y ero
yKpaMHCKoro KOjuierM, a MeTo^bi — 3HanMTeJibHo McecTne.

B TaflJKMKMCTaHe, Ka3axcTaHe, KMprM3MM m aance b BeJiopyccMM Bee 5Ke
ecn. peajibHan JierajibHaa onno3MLtMH, xoth nojiMTMHecKan CMCTeMa opraHM3o-
BaHa TaK, hto npMMTM k BjiacrM OHa He mojkct. B y36eKMCTaHe jierajibHoii onno-
3MUMM ceMHac npaKTMnecKM HeT m ecTb TOJibKo «nceBflOMHoronapTMMHocTb» no
TMny «cTpaH Hapo^HOM fleMOKpaTMM».

A b TypKMeHMM HeT m ee. TypravieHMH — sto rpoTecKHbiM 3anoBeflHMK to-
TajiMTapM3Ma, rae ctoht 30JioTbie craTyM TypKMeH6auiM, Bee ynaT HanMcaHHyio
mm CBrau,eHHyK> KHMry «PyxHaM3» m aasKe MecHi^bi ro^a nepeMMeHOBaHbi b necTb
«capflapa» m ero poflMTejieii.

TypKMeHMH m CTpaHbi BajiTMM — sto flBa nojiioca nocTCOBeTCKoro nojiMTM-
»iecKoro pa3BMTMfl. B coBeTCKoe BpeMa b stmx CTpaHax {popMajibHan MHCTMTy-
miOHajibHaH CTpyKTypa 6biJia TOMCflecTBeHHow. CeiiHac ohm HacTOjibKo pa3JiMH-

Hbl, HTO flaJKe CpaBHMBaTb MX 6eCCMbICJieHHO.

TAKMM OBPA30M, nOCTCOBETCKME CTPAHBI CTajiM 6bicrpo y fl a-

aHTbca apyr ot apyra no cbomm nojiMTMnecKMM CMCTeMaM m co3aajiM 3a roflbi

nocne naaeHMH CCCP caMbie pa3Hbie CMCTeMbi bo BceM AMana30He ot pa3BMTOM

oKpaTMM no «pa3BMToro TOTajiMTapw3Ma». OTCM^a cjie,n;yeT bbiboa, koto-

•CtamoaHaH mbicjiij-XXIs JN? 10.

fl. *yPMAH

18

pbiii MOJKeT noKa3aTbCH HeojKMflaHHbiM, ho kotopbim jiorM^ecKM Hew36e3KeH:
coeemcKoe cotpicuvucmunecKoe npouuioe we oKa3cuio CKOAhKO-nu6ydh cytye-
cmeeHuozo bauslhusi ho. nocmcoeemcKoe noAumimecicoe pa3eumue.

ECTeCTBeHHO, HMKSKOM o6lHMM (paKTOp He MOMCeT oS-bHCHMTb pa3JIMHMM, a

3to 03HaHaeT, hto o6mwe coBeTCKue crapTOBbie ycjiOBWH He MoryT oGtsHChmtb
flMBepreHitMio pe>KMMOB Gbibeumx coBeTCKHx pecnySjiMK. Ecjim 6bi 3Ta flMBepreH-
quH pa3BMBajiacb b y3K0M ;mana30He, mm Morjiw 6bi ycMOTpera aeMCTBMe <paK-
Topa «coBeTCKOCTM» MMeHHO b «cyMceHMM flwana30Ha». M b 1991 ropy, KOiyja flM-
BepreHijHH m flwana30H oijeHOK He 6buiu eme ctojib BejiMKM, mbi fleMCTBMTejibHO
MOMceM yBM^eTb HeKOTopoe BJiMHHMe no3flHecoBeTCKMX ycjioBMii. BHyTpu rop-
GaneBCKoro CCCP ajih pecnyGjiMK hcbo3mo3kho Gbuio co3flaTb hm nojmocTbio

^eMOKpaTMHeCKMM, HM nOJIHOCTbK) TOTajIMTapHbIM peMCMMJ M flJIH TOrO, M flJIH

Apyroro nysKHbi BbuiM He3aBMCMMocrb m KaKoe-TO BpeMH. Ho ywce nepe3 He-
cKOJibKO jieT nocjie pacna^a CoBeTCKoro Coio3a m MCHe3H0BeHMH cflepsKMBaio-
meii cpuibi ijeHTpa m Te, kto c caivroro Hanajia (eme «BHyTpw» CCCP) nomeji no
nyTM ^eMOKpaTMHecKoro cTpoMTeubCTBa, m Te, kto nomeji no nyTM «CTpoMTejib-
CTBa aBTopMTapM3Ma», flocTpawBaioT cbom 3^aHMJi, a flMBepreHqMH m, cooTBeT-
CTBeHHO, pa36poc oi^eHOK flocTMraioT MaKCMMajibHO B03M03KHbix pa3MepoB.
TypKMeHMH nojiynaer MaKCMMaJibHyio oueHKy aBTopMTapM3Ma — 7 ywce b 1992
rosy, oueHKy 1 JlMTBa nojiynaeT b 1995-m, 3ctohmh — b 1996-m, JIaTBMa — b
1997-m, c 3Toro BpeaieHM ouenKM He MeHjuiMCb.

Ho ecjiw nocTCOBeTCKne CTpaHbi 3a HecKOJibKO JieT Morjui cTaTb m TaKMMM,
KaK TypKMeHMJi, no oueHKe CBo6o,n;bi HaxoflamaHCH Ha oahom ypoBHe c JIpiBPieii,
Cay/joBCKoii ApaBweii m CeBepHoii Kopeeii, m TaKMMM, KaK CTpaHbi BajiTMM,

OUeHKa CBOfiOflbl KOTOpblX paBHa OI^eHKe CBOGOflbl BejIMKoBpMTaHMM M

IHBeMuapMM, 3HanMT, ohm MorjiM Bee, m (paKTop oGmero coBeTCKoro Hacjie-
flHfl npaKTMHecKM HMKaK He c^epMCMBaji m He HanpaBJiHJi mx pa3BMTMe 5 .
KaKwe wee (paKTopbi o6t>hchhiot flMBepreHUMio?

OHEBMflHO, CAMOE EOJIbHIOE 3HAHEHME MMee T «UMBMJiM3au,HOH-
hmm» (paKTop. IIpM B3rjLH^e Ha TaGjiMuy oh 6pocaeTCH b rjia3a.

Bee TpM CTpaHbi npMGajiTHKM, HBJiHiomMecH, no oueHKaM «Freedom House»,

nOJIHOCTbK) CBODOflHblMM, 3T0 CTpaHbi C 3anaflHbIMM (pOpMaMM XpMCTMaHCT-

Ba — jiKJTepaHCTBOM m KaTOJiMHecTBOM, eflMHCTBeHHbie b stom pofle pecnyGjiM-

KM, BXOflMBniMe B COCTaB CCCP.

IlHTb «MaCTMMHO CB060flHbIX» CTpaH 3TO HeTbipe npaBOCJiaBHbie CTpaHbi

njIIOC ApMeHMH C ee OCOGOM BOCTOHHO-XpMCTMaHCKOM HaqilOHaJIbHOM ^epKOBbIO

HlecTb «HecBo6o^Hbix» CTpaH — sto rorrb MycyjibMaHCKMX CTpaH njiwc
npaBOCJiaBHan BejiopyccMH. M3 Bcex nocTCOBeTCKMX MycyjibMaHCKMX CTpaH
hm oflna He nonajia b KaTeropMM «CBo6oaHaH» m «HacTMHHo CBo6oflHan».

3Ta 6pocaiomaHCJiB rjia3a TecHan cBH3b pejiwrM03HO-UMBMJiM3auMOHHoii npM-
HaflJieMCHOCTM crpaH m mx oueHOK no cTeneHM CBoSoflbi nojmocTbio cooTBeTCTByer
HaiuMM o6mMM 3HaHMHM o pa3BMTMM coBpeMeHHOM fleMOKpaTMM. OHa BnepBbie no-
6e,i]MJia b pafle npoTecTaHTCKMX crpaH, 3aTeM pacnpocrpaHMjiacb Ha KaTOJiMHecKMM
MMp m cewnac oxBaTMJia jnnub HeKOTopbie HexpMCTMaHCKMe crpaHbi 6 . CooTBeTCTBy-
eT 3Ta CBH3B m oueHKaM, KOTopbie flaeT «Freedom House» pa3HbiM cipaHaM MMpa.

«nOCTCOBeTCKOCTb» He OnpefleJIHCT MTOrM nOJIMTMHeCKOrO pa3BMTMH M bo-

o6iqe He bjimhct Ha hmx cKOJibKo-HM6yflb 3aMeTHo: nocrcoBeTCKMe CTpaHbi Mor-
jim Bbipa6oTaTb npe^enbHO aajieKHe jvpyr ot apyra (popMbi nojiHTMHecKoro ycT-
poiicTBa. Ho i^MBMJiM3aL(MOHHaH npMHa,qjie3KHOCTb onpeflejineT mx nojiMTMHecKyio
SBOjnouMio TaK, hto b pe3yjifaTaTe ceiiHac ohm OKa3ajniCb npeaejibHO ^ajieKM ot He-

KOTOpbDC flpyTMX «6paTCKMX» COBeTCKMX peCiryOJIMK, XOTH OHeHb 6JIM3KM k CTpa-

flMBEPrEHmiH nOJIMTM*lECKMX CMCTEM HA IIOCTCOBETCKOM IIPOCTPAHCTBE

19

HaM, HMKorfla He BxoflMBinMM hm b CCCP, hm b «cou,jiarepb», npM 3tom npM-

HaflJieHCamMM K TOM MCe pejIMrM03HO-nMBMJIM3an,MOHHOM TpaflMLlMM.

TaK, CTpaHti BajiTMM npe^ejibHo EajieKM ot paHee «6paTCKoM» TypKMe-
hmm, ho 6jim3km k HlBeijMM, <I>paHijMM, BejiMKoSpMTaHMM. B rpynny CTpaH, MMe-

KHUHX Ty 3Ke, HTO M CTpaHbi BaJlTMM, MaKCMMa JlbHyK) OLjeHKy no JJjeMOKpaTMH-
HOCTM ( 1 ), BXOflHT 59 CTpaH. M3 HMX 29 npOTeCTaHTCKMX, 23 KaTOJIMHeCKMe,

3 — npaBOCJiaBHBie, a TaKMce HnoHMH, J/tepaMJib m MaBpMKMii. Cpejj;M hmx HeT
hm OflHoii MycyjibMaHCKoii CTpaHbi. M HaoobpOT, b rpynne CTpaH, nojiyHMBiiiMX
oneHKy 7, HeT hm ojjhom npoTeeraHTCKOM m jiraiib ojjna KaTOJiMnecKaH (Ky6a).

«IIepexoflHaH» rpynna nocTCOBeTCKMx «HacTMHHO CBo6oflHbix» CTpaH, c
cmemcaMM ot 3 #o 5, nojiHOCTbio coctomt M3 npaBOCJiaBHbix m boctohho-xpmc-
TMaHCKMx ( ApMeHMn). B Hee bxorht Bee npaBOCJiaBHue nocTCOBeTCKMe erpa-
Hbi, KpoMe «HecBo6oflHOM» EejiopyccMM. B MMpe b nejiOM rpynna «HacTMHHO cbo-
6oflHbix» — caMan «n,MBMJiM3an,M0HH0 necTpan», b Hee bxoeht oneHb pa3Hbie
CTpaHbi. Ho flpyrwe npaBocjiaBHbie m BOCTOHHo-xpMCTMaHCKMe CTpaHbi npM Bbi-
cokom pa36poce mx oneHOK TaKSKe TnroTeioT k «nepexojj;HbiM», cpejj;HMM
oneHKaM. TpM M3 hmx — BojirapMH, KMnp m Tpei^MH — ceMnac MMeioT Bucinyio
oiieHKy ,n;eMOKpaTMHHOCTM (1); ojjHa, PyMbiHMH, — oneHKy 2; jjBe, MaKe^OHMH m
Cep6MH c HepHoropMeii, — 3, a BOCTOHHO-xpMCTMaHCKan SdpuomiH, new BapM-
aHT xpMCTMaHCTBa 6jim30k k apMHHCKOMy, nojiyHMJia oijeHKy 5 (Taicyio Mce, KaK
Poccmh, m Ha o,zi;mh nyHKT xyMce apMHHCKOli).

Tpynna «HecBo6bflHbix» noercoBeTCKMX CTpaH coctomt M3 mecTO MycyjibMaH-
ckmx CTpaH iunoc BeJiopyccMH. M onaTb-TaKM, Hanoi MycyjibMaHCKMe CTpaHbi no

C03flaHHbIM MMM nOJIMTMHeCKMM pe>KMMaM OHeHb flaJieKM OT CTpaH BaJITMM MJIM

McwmoBbi, ho oneHb 6jtm3km k jjpyraM Mycyjn>MaHCKMM crpaHaM. M3 41 crpaHbi MMpa
c MycyjibMaHCKMM GojibiiiHHCTBOM HacejieHMH hm qnHa He nojiyHMJia oneHKy 1, TOjib-
ko flBe nojiynMjiM oneHKy 2 m nonajiM b rpynny «CBo6oflHbix» (MajiM m CeHeraji),
TpM — oneHKy 3 m npM3HaHbi «nacTMHHO cboSoahmmm* (AjiSaHMH, MimoHe3MH m
Typuwa); oneHKy 4 nojiynMJiM TpM crpaHw, oneHKy 5 — ceivn. crpaH, oneHKy 6 — bo-
ceMHajjnaTb, oneHKy 7 — BoceMb CTpaH. Bcero b MMpe 1 7 crpaH nojiynMJiM oneHKy 7,

TO eCTb MX peJKMMbl npM3HaiOTCH 3aK0HHeHHbIMM aBTOpMTapHbIMM M TOTaJIMTapHbl-

mm 7 ; M3 hmx MycyjibMaHCKMx — 8. Jfe 32 CTpaH MMpa, nojiy^MBuiMx oneHKy 6, My-
cyjitMaHCKMX — 18, a xpMCTMaHCKMX — o,zn*a EeJiopyccMH. TypKMeHMa m y36eKMC-

TaH «pHflOM» He C nOCTCOBeTCKMMM JiMTBOM MJIM JlaTBWeM, a C MycyjIBNtaHCKHMM

Cyz^aHOM, CayflOBCKOM ApaBMeii, MpaKOM, JImbmcm, CwpMeM.

Co3flaeTCH BnenaTjieHMe, hto KaK TOJibKO MCHe3jia npMHyflMTejibHan co-
BeTCKaH yHM(pMKanMa f KoropaHHMKaK He Morjia M3MeHMTb rjryooKMe «LfWBMJiM3anM-
OHHbie KO,m.i» Bxo^MBniMX b CCCP crpaH, ohm 0Ka3anMCb TaM, r^e mx ecTecTBeHHoe
«MecTO». IIpM 3tom 3JieMeHT no,zjpa}KaHMH, co3HaTejibHOro ynoflo6jieHMa 5ojibinoM
pojm He MrpajL CTpaHbi BajrrMM ^eMCTBMTejibHO co3HaTejn>HO crpoMJiM cbom CMCTe-
ubi no eBponewcKMM o6pa3naM, c caMoro Hanajia B3HB Kypc Ha MHTerpauMio b 3anaa-
Htie crpyKTypbL Ho HeT HMKaKwx ocHOBaHMM nonaraTb, hto jiMflepu Y36eKMCTaHa
mjim TypKMeHMM GpajiM ce5e 3a o6pa3eL( MpaK mjim JImbmio. ,fl|ejio He b no^a^caHMM m
ae b opMeHTanMM Ha KaKyio-TO rpynny CTpaH (HMKaKoii C03HaromeM cboio o6npiocTb
m po^cTBO rpynnbi aBTopMTapHbix CTpaH BOoSiqe HeT, m Bee nocTCOBeTCKMe CTpaHbi
ecjiM Ha Koro m opMeHTMpyioTCH, to Ha 3anafl; 6biTb 3Ke b oahom rpynne c Mpa-
kom m JlMBMeii He xoneT hmkto), a b oCtjCKtmbho cymecTByiomeM po^CTBe.

3HAHEHME PEJIMrM03HO-I}MBMJIM3AUMOHHOrO (paKTopa Ha-

crojibKO BejiMKo, hto B03HMKaeT ecTecTBeHHoe MCKyuieHMe oGijHBMTb ero HyTb

He eflMHCTBeHHO 3HanMMbiM. OflHaKo hcho, hto fleMCTBMe ero orpaHMneHo.

M XOTH CBH3b UMBMJIM3aUM0HH0M npMHaflJieSKHOCTM M nOJIMTMHeCKMX peSKMMOB

tweBMflHa, TaKMce ohcbmaho m to, hto CBH3b 3Ta HenpHMan m HeojjHOSHaHHaa.

JJ, 3>yPMAH

20

TaK, npaBOCJiaBHbie noercoBeTCKMe CTpaHbi nojiyniuiM oijeHKM b pa36poce
ot 3 (MojiflOBa) pp 6 (EejiopyccMH), a MycyjibMaHCKMe — b pa36poce ot 5 flo 7.

flCHO, MTO 3TOT pa36pOC He M05KCT 6bITb oSTjJICHeH o6lIJMMM flJIH HMX IJMBMJIM3a-

i^mohhbimm (paKTopaMM. Ecjim one bbimtm 3a npeaejibi noercoBeTCKoro npocTpan-
CTBa, to pa36poc OKajKerCH eme Sojibuimm. TaK, cpezm npaBocjiaBHbix CTpan
ecTb TpM, MMeiomne oueHKy 1. MycyjibMaHCKMe CTpaHbi b ochobhom MMeioT
oqeHKM 5 — 7, ho eCTb cpe^M hhx flBe CTpaHbi c ohchkom 2 m Tpn — c oijeHKOM 3.

KOHeHHO, MOJKHO CKa3aTb, MTO 9TO MCKJIIOHeHMH, BbI3BaHHbie OCOSbIMM OOCTO-

HTejibCTBaMM. Ho b jho5om cjiynae iiohhtho, hto pejiMrH03HO-u,JiBM.nji3aL(MOHHaH

npHHaflJIOKHOCTb JIMHIb (paKTOp, KOTOpbIM OMeHb Ba>KeH, HO fleMCTBMe KOTO-

poro MOMceT 6biTb cmjibho M3MeHeHo mjim orpaHMHeHO flewcTBMeM KaKMX-To ppy-
rax cpaKTopoB.

HtoBm nontiTaTbCH KaK-TO 06'bHCHMTb pa36poc b npeflejiax pejiwrM03H0-

HMBMJIM3aUMOHHbIX o6mHOCTeM, Mbl flOJIJKHbl MCKaTb 3TM flOIIOJIHMTejIbHbie (paK-

Topw. 3flecb B03HMKaeT MHoro BonpocoB, m mojkho BbiflBMHyTb MHoro rwnoTe3

pa3HOM CTeneHM flOCTOBepHOCTM.

TaK, nbiTancb o6 , bJiCHMTb otjimhmh MojyjOBbi m apyrwx CTpaH, rtcokho yna-
3aTb Ha to, hto b Me>KBoeHHbiM nepiiofl MojiflOBa Haxoflmiacb b cocTaBe He
CCCP, a PyMbiHMM, oGmecTBa xoth m He aeMOKpaTMHecKoro, ho Bee Mce m He
TorajiMTapHoro. Otjimhmh yKpaMHCKoro m poccMMcKoro pencMMOB HecoMHeH-
ho onpe^sejiHiOTCH m pa3HbiMM TMnaMM HauMOHajibHorb caMOC03HaHM« (ecjiM

OCo6eHHOCTM pyCCKOrO CaMOC03HaHMH CBH3aHbI C pOJIbK) MMIiepCKOM HaUHM, TO

yKpaMHCKoro — c panbio HaijMM, 6opK>meMCH 3a CBo6o,n;y), m bjimhhmcm pa3Hbix
rocyflapcTBeHHbix Tpa^MUMM (nojiyaHapxMHecKoro Ka3auKoro rocyflapcTBa m
caMOflepmaBHoro pyccKoro). Momcho TaKMte yKa3aTb Ha pojib TajiMMMHbi, Ha
6ojibiiiMM KyjibTy pHbiw m pejiwrM03HbiM ruiiopajiM3M YKpanHbi m Ha MHOroe flpy-
roe. OS'bHCHHH otjimhmh A3ep6afiflJKaHa ot y36eKMeraHa, moskho HanoMHMTb,
hto A3ep6aiifl5KaH flOJibiiie bxoamji b cocTaB Poccmmckom MMnepMM, a a3ep6aM-
AMcaHCKaH 3JinTa Haxo^Mjiacb no# cmibHbiM BJiMHHneM eBponeMCKoii KyjibTypbi,
mojkho yKa3aTb Ha onwT A3ep6aiifl>KaHCK0M pecnyojiMKH nepwofla rpawyjaHC-
kom BOMHbi b Poccmm. Pa3JiMMmr KnprM3nn m Ka3axcTaHa C y36eKMCTaHOM —

3T0 B 3HaHMTeJIbH0M Mepe pa3JIMHMH OOlUeCTB «KOH6BOM fleMOKpaTMM», C OflHOM

CTopoHbi, m 3eMJiefleJibMecKnx o6m;ecTB c rocyflapcTBeHHOM flecnorMHecKOw
TpaflnqneM, c flpyroM.

^>aKTOpbI MHOSKaTCH, HaHMHaiOT «nyTaTbC«», TepHTb CBOK) OflHOSHaHHOCTb

m onpe^ejieHHOCTb. Mh BbrayMc^eHbi «rpOM03flMTb» o^mh Ha flpyrow, nejiaw oro-
BopKM m BcrynaH b npoTMBOpeHMH 8 . TaKPie o&bHCHeHMH nocTeneHHO nepexoflwr
b MCTOpMHecKMM aHajiM3 m fla>Ke npocTO b MCTopn^ecKoe onMcaHMe, a MaTeMa-
TMMecKM noflTBepjKflaeMoe yKa3aHne Ha fleiicTBMe onpeflejieHHbix (paKTopoB
nocTeneHHO nepexo^MT b onncaHwe npoi(ecca («KaK oto nojiyHiwiocb*).

IIpM 3TOM, XOTH CaMO CTpeMJieHHe CBeCTM BCe K KaKHM-TO flOJITOBpeMeH-

HbiM (paKTOpaM ecTecTBeHHO m npaBMJibHO, oho npeflCTaBJineT co6om He hto
MHoe, KaK CTpeMJieHMe o6Hapy3KMTb couwajibHbie m KyjibTypojiorMHecKMe 3aKOHO-
MepHOCTM. OflHaKo nojiHoe CBefleHMe k TaKMM 3aKOHOMepHocTHM 03HaMajio
6bi, hto KOHKpeTHhie jiioflH — rop6aMeBbi m EjibHHHbi, Bpa3aycKacbi m JlaH^c-
BeprMCbi, 3jibHM5eM m Ajimcbbi — BooSme HMMero He 3HaHaT, vto ohm — npocTO

CMMBOJIbI HeKHX «(paKTOpOB». Ho 3T0 Bee wee He TaK.

KOHKpeTHbie JIIOflM, KOHe^HO, 3Ha^aT 3HaHMTejIbH0 MeHbllie, MeM MM CaMMM

KaMcercH. ^e-noBeK viner Ha BbiGopbi m cboSoaho onycKaeT BwjuieTeHb 3a onpe-
AiejieHHoro KaiwMflaTa. 3to ero Bbi6op. Ho CTaTMCTMKa roBopMT, kto 90 npoueH-
tob jnoflew ero B03pacra, o6pa30BaHna, coL(najibHoro nojiowceHMH rojiocywT TaK
wee, KaK m oh, m, cjieflOBaTejibHO, to, hto cy&beKTMBHO KaJKerCH cbo6ohhmm m,
Moacer 6wTb, ^aace MyHMTejibHbiM Bbi6opoM, coi(MajibHO m KyjibTypHO npe^on-

flMBEPrEHIfllH nOJIMTMHECKMX CMCTEM HA nOCTCOBETCKOM IIPOCTPAHCTBE

21

pe^ejieHO. npaBMTejib 6opeTCJi c conepHMKaMM, c rpoMa^HbiM Tpy,n;oM bbict-
paMBaeT «BJiacTHyio BepTMKajib», flo6nBaeTCH cBoepi «6e3ajibTepHaTMBHocTM»
m ayMaeT npo ce6n: «KaKOM h MOJioaeu,, c KaKHMM TpyflHOCTHMH cnpaBmicn! » Ho
pjmoM to Mce caMoe m c TeM wee ycnexoM flejiaeT flpyroii npaBMTejib, npMHeM c
coBceM mhmmm jimhhocthmmm xapaKTepMCTMKaMM. AKa^eMMK A. AKaeB,
napTMMHbiM BwpoKpaT H. Ha3ap6aeB, yTOHneHHbiM MHTejuieKTyaji m tohtm
AMCCMfleHT JI. Tep-IIeTpoc«H, SbiBUiMJi coTpyflHMK KrB B. IlyTMH m GbiBiintii
npeflceflaTejib KOJixo3a A. JlyKameHKO — jikwm onera. pa3Hbie. Ho co3flaHHbie

HMM peJKMMbl OHeHb nOXOHCM.

KyjibTypa 3HaHMT 6ojibiue, HeM jimhhoctm; m KOHKpeTHbie nojiMTMHecKwe

CHTyaUMM, M peJIMrM03H0-nHBMJIM3aiJM0HHbIM BblBop KHH3H BjiaflMMMpa, coBep-

nieHHbiM 6ojiee tmcjihm jieT Ha3afl, mjim BwBop xaHa y36eKa, npwHHBuiero mc-
jiaM, mjim Bbi6op HraiiJibi, cTaBiuero KaTOJiMKOM, — Sojiee BawcHbi KaK cpaKTopbi,
onpeflejiHwmMe TenepeiiiHMe nojiMTMHecKMe cmctcmbi, neM Bee «Bbi6opbi»
M. rop6aneBa, E. EjibijMHa, B. JlaimcSeprMca m H. Ha3ap6aeBa. OflHaKO jimhhoc-

THbie C|)aKTOpbI MMeiOT 3HaHeHMe flJIH COBpeMeHHblX nOJIMTMHeCKMX CMCTeM, M

Mbi MOMceM yjiOBMTb mx fleMCTBMe b nponecce HaiueMflMBepreHtiMM. Kyjn/rypHbie
m MHbie flOjiroBpeMeHHbie (paKTopw onpeflejiniOT Beep bosmoskhoctcm m Bojib-
EUyK) MJIM MeHbUiyiO BepOHTHOCTb CTaHOBJieHMH Toro mjim MHoro pewcMMa. Ho
CyfrbeKTMBHblM (|)aKTOp MOJKeT OKa3aTbCH HaCTOJIbKO CMJIbHblM, HTO MHOrfla Bbl-

GwpaeTCH He caMbiii BeponTHbiw BapMaHT.

HanpMMep, EeJiopyccMH no CBOeM KyjibType, KaK h flyMaw, — He Ta crpa-
Ha, fljiH kotopom ecTecTBeHHO nonaflaHMe b oflHy rpynny c MycyjibMaHCKMMM
jiecnoTMHMM; m o6i>HCHMTb aBTopMTapM3M GejiopyccKoro pewcMMa Hejib3H 6e3
yneTa hmcto cy&beKTMBHoro m cJiynaHHoro <paKTopa — npKOM m CMJibHOM jimh-
hoctm 6ejiopyccKoro npe3M,aeHTa. M to, hto TypKMeHCKMfi pewcuM npeflcraBJiJi-
eTCH rpoTecKHbiM flawce fljm y36eKOB, Bpaa jim BbiBOflHMO M3 rJiySoKMX oco6eH-
HOCTeii TypKMeHCKOM KyjibTypbi. KoHenHO, nepcneKTMBy (popMMpoBaHMH b
TypKMeHMM b nocTcoBeTCKMii nepMOfl fleMOKpaTMHecKoro pencMMa mojkho chm-
TaTb npaKTMHecKM HepeajibHoii, ho to, hto aBTOpMTapM3M 3flecb nepepoc b to-
TaJiMTapM3M, a He npHHJiJi Bojiee MHncyio (JiopMy, xoth 6bi TaKyio, KaK b flpyrwx
ueHTpajibHoa3MaTCKMx CTpaHax, — HaBepHHKa, jikhhsih <oacjiyra» C. Hmh30-
Ba. YKpaMHa, cnoKoiiHO m mmpho nponieAnian nepe3 nepByio poTanwio BJiacTM,
HaBepHOe, MMejia ruaHCbi BCTynMTb Ha nyTb, no KOTopoMy noiiuiM 6ajiTMMC-
Kwe CTpaHH m MoJiflOBa. To, hto sroro He npoM30iiiJio, HecoMHeHHO, bo mhotom
onpe,n;ejiMJia jiMHHOCTb JI. KyHMW.

3to npwMepbi, Kor^a jimhhoctm npaBMTejieii cTajiw (JiaKTOpaMM, c,npMraio-
mMMM CTpaHy b CTopoHy 6ojibruero aBTopnTapM3Ma. Ho, HecoMHeHHO, ecTb m
npoTMBonojiosKHbie. Kor^a b JImtbc b 1993 ro^y Heo5KM,n;aHHO ^jih Bcex noSej^M-
jia fleMOKpaTMHecKaH napTMJi Tpy^a A. Epa3aycKaca (6biBinaH KoMnapTMH
JIwTBbi) — a 3to 6buio nepBoe b cepwM B03BpameHMii bo BJiacTb napTMii «nepe-

CTpOMBIlieMCH» KOMMyHMCTMHeCKOM HOMeHKJiaTypbl, flJIH B03rjiaBJIHBIHMXCH

B. JIaH#c6epracoM «fleMOKpaTOB»-caK)flMCTOB 3to oKa3ajiocb iuokom. IIo JImtbc
nonoji3JiM cjiyxM, hto «K0MMyHMCTOB» k BJiacTM He nycTHT. TeopeTMnecKM B03-
MOJKHOCTb TaKoro pa3BMTMH co5biTMM cymecTBOBajia, m, HaBepHHKa, noflo6Hoe
HCKymeHMe y «,neMOKpaTOB» 6bijio. Ho Hwnero no,zio6Horo He rrpoM3oniJio. 3to
KomcpeTHaH CMTyaLtMH, peniajiM 3flecb KOHKpeTHbie JiMflM, m to, hto mx peine-
HMe OKasKeTCH MMeHHO TaKMM, Sbuio BepoHTHO, ho He npeflonpeflejieHO Ha 100
npoijeHTOB.

JlMHHOCTM He B COCTOHHMM npOM3BOJIbHO OTMeHMTb fleMCTBMe MOIUHblX

4»aKTopoB, ho ohm MoryT BMflOM3MeHMTb mx fleiiCTBMe b onpeflejieHHbix flMana-
aoHax; m net/i wuibHee JiMHHOCTb, neM b 6ojiee CMJibHOM BJiacraoM no3Mi4MM OHa
aaxoflMTCH, neM Heonpe,ziejieHHee cMTyai^MH b CTpaHe, TeM 6ojibniMM flMana-

fl.a>ypMAH

22

3ohom B03MOJKHocTeii oHa pacnoJiaraeT. OneBMflHo, npw jiioSom KOMSMHanMM

JIMHHOCTHblX M CMTyaTMBHblX (paKTOpOB TypKMeHMH CeMHaC He MOrJia 6bl MMeTb

peJKMM, KOTopbiM nojiyHMji 6m oueHtcy 1 mjim 2, a JIwTBa — pencMM c oueHKOM 7
mjim 6. Ho TypraweHMH MorJia 6bi MMeTb peHCMM c oijeHKOM 6 mjim 5, a JlMTBa — 2
mjim flawce 3. MHane roBopn, TenepeuiHAH KapTMHa nojiMTMnecKoro ycTpoiicTBa

nOCTCOBeTCKMX CTpaH He HBJIiieTCH ejJMHCTBeHHO B03M03KHOM. HpMHUMnMaJIbHO

mhom KaprMHbi B03HMKHyTb He Morjio, ho MorjiM peajiM30BaTbCH m nyTb 6ojiee
«jiM6epajibHbie», m nyTb Bojiee «TOTajiMTapHbie» BapMaHTbi 9 .

COBEPIIIEHHO OHEBM^HO, hto pejiMrH03H0-UMBMjiM3anM0HHbiM <paK-
Top He onpe^ejineT oflH03HaHHo xapaKTep nojiMTMnecKoro pejKMiaa. HeT My-

CyJIbMaHCKMX, IipOTeCTaHTCKMX M npaBOCJiaBHWX peMCMMOB. KOHeHHO, ecTb TO,

hto npM^aeT emjiHCTMHecKoe cBoeo5pa3Me .nance oflHOTMnHbiM peMCMMaM CTpaH,
npMHa^JieMcamMx k pa3HWM u.MBMJiM3aH,MOHHbiM rpynnaM. K>HCHOKopeMCKaH

fleMOKpaTMH OTJIMHaeTCH OT JIMTOBCKOM, a TypKMeHCKMM TOTaJIMTapM3M OT

ceBepoKopeMCKoro. (A Kor;ja b Poccmm Syzjer fleMOKpaTMH, oto Towce Sy^eT ne-

MOKpaTMH «B pyCCKOM CTMJie»). Ho 3T0 MMeHHO «CTMJIMCTMHeCKMe» M HeiipMHUMIIM-

ajibHbie otjimhmh. npMHUMiiMajibHbix pa3JiMHMM MeMyry cTaTy^MM TypravieHSaniM
m Kmm Mp CeHa HeT. KaK HeT m npMHHMnMajibHbix otjimhmm stmx craTyM ot cra-
Tyii CTajiMHa mjim MyccojiKHM.

OueHKa pewcMMa — 3to mmchho oneHica pewcMMa, a He ero H,MBMjiM3auiioH-

HOM npMHaflJieJKHOCTM, XOTH HMBMJIM3anMH <p aKT0 P> CMJIbHO BJIMHIOIUMM Ha

xapaKTep m, cooTBeTCTBeHHO, oneHKy pejKMMa. 3^ecb BnojiHe yMecTHa aHajio-

rMH C oSblHHbIMM OLjeHKaMM, KOTOpbie CTaBflTCfl fleTflM B UIKOJie. OljeHKM CTaBHT-

ch 3a ycnexM no MaTeniaTMKe mjim pyccKOMy H3bncy, a He jimhhoctk mjim coijm-
ajibHOM mjim HaitMoHajibHOM npMHaflJiejKHOCTM yneHMKOB. Ho maHCbi Ha to, hto
cbiH SeflHoro MMrpaHTa M3 HeHTpajiBHOM A3MM SyzjeT no pyccKOMy H3bncy He bm-
jie3aTb M3 «flBoeK», a cmh MocKOBCKoro npocpeccopa — 6e3 ocoobro HanpnsKe-
hmh nojiynaTb «nHTepKM», oneHb BejiMKM. Xoth, kohchho, SbmaioT oneHb cno-
coSHbie k ,H3biKaM ^eTM Be^Hbix MMipaHTOB m HerpaMOTHbie .zjeTM
MHTejuiMreHTHbix MOCKBMneM. Tohho TaK wee fljiH cTpaHbi c npoTecTaHTCKOJi pe-
jiMrM03HO-KyjibTypHOM TpaflMu;MeM, KaK 9ctohmh, nocTpoMTb CMCTeMy, 3ac-
jiysKMBaiomyK) ouemcy 1, jienco, m flance oco6om 3acjiyrM 3,necb HeT. A ajih Y3-
SeKMCTaHa — oneHb TpyflHO. M noaTOMy jnoSbie ycnexM b nocTpoeHMM
^eMOKpaTMM CTpaH c u,MBMjiM3an.MOHHbiMM Tpa^Mi^MHMM, He cnocoScTByioiUMMM
jiencoMy ycBoeHMio ^eMOKpaTMnecKMX HopM, ocoSeHHo neHHbi. OuemcM 2, koto-
pbie MMeioT MajiM m CeHeraji, m 3, KOTopyio MMeeT TypuMH, ueHHee, neM ac-
TOHCKan «eflMHMua». XopoiueMy yHMTejiio TBepaaH «TpoMKa» 3a pyccKMM,
nojiyneHHaH chhom Se^Horo Ta^JKMKCKoro MMrpaHTa, flOJiJKHa ^ocTaBJiHTb
6ojibine paflocTM, HeM «nHTepKM» npotpeccopcKoro cbiHa.

OrteHKM pejKMMOB — 3to oijeHKM mx cooTBeTCTBMH onpe^ejieHHOM HopMe,
B03HMKnieM m BbipaSoTaHHOM b onpeflejieHHOM L(MBMjiM3aLiMOHHOM cpefle, HO K
HameMy BpeMeHM npMo6peTiueM oSmenejiOBeHecKoe 3HaneHMe. OSmenejiOBe-
necKoe SHa^eHMe stom HopMbi bm^ho m b tom, hto ee He OTpMijaiOT m Te, kto eM He
cJie,nyeT. BjiacTM hm oahom M3 nocTCOBeTCKMX CTpaH, MMeioinMx oqeHKM 6 m 7,
flawce TypKMeHCKMe, He yTBepncflaioT, hto fleMOKpaTMH — 3to HenTO njioxoe m
HeHyjKHoe; ohm He mmciot HMKaKoro ajiBTepHaTMBHoro ^eMOKpaTMM M^eaJia. B
oTJiMHwe ot Tpa^MijMOHajiMCTCKMx m b KaKOM-To Mepe flawce TOTajiMTapHbix pe-
jkmmob nponijioro Beica, hmkto cewnac He peuiaeTCH OTpwnaTb ^eMOKpaTMio, ho

ee nO^MeHHIOT o6MaHOM M MMMTartMeM (<paJIbCM<pMItMpOBaHHbIMM BbiCopaMM,

4>aKTMHecKM «M36paHHbiM» caMMMM npe3MfleHTaMM napjiaMeHTOM m t. n.). y
3tmx BjiacTeM ecTb jiMnib ,flBa cnocoSa KaK-To OTBenaTb Ha oSBMHeHM^ b aBTopM-

flMBEPrEHU,Mfl nOJIMTMIECKMX CMCTEM HA nOCTCOBETCKOM IIPOCTPAHCTBE

23

Tapw3Me (mjim npocTO KOHCTaTaurao aBTopMTappi3Ma). Bo-nepBbix, sto npocTO

OTpPmaHMe CBOerO HeCOOTBCTCTBMH HOpMaM M OOBMHeHMH B npeflB3«TOCTM (KaK

yneHMK MOJKeT roBopMTb, hto «yHMTejib npMflMpaeTCH»): yTBepjKflaeTCH, hto
hbho ^aJiBCM^Mi^wpoBaHHBie Bbi6opbi 6bijin onem. HecTHbiMM, hto nocaJKeHHbie
b TiopbMy nojiMTM^ecKMe npoTMBHMKM cpiflHT 3a yrojiOBHbie npecTynjieHMH, hto
onno3mtWH He npe^cTaBJieHa b napjiaMeHTe noroMy, hto Hapofl ee He jiioGmt, a
jik>6mt npe3Pi,n;eHTa, m t. r. Bee 3to npeflCTaBJineT coGoii npocTO o6MaH c HeKOTO-
pbiMM 3JieMeHTaMM caaiooBMaHa. Bo-BTopbix, 3to yTBepsKfleHwe, hto ajih pa3BM-

TOM fleMOKpaTMM HyJKHO BpeMfl M He Ha^o IipMMeHHTb K MX CTpaHaM CJIMUIKOM

CTporne Tpe6oBaHMH. «Korfla-Hn5y^b Mbi flopaereM pp pa3BMTOM fleMOKpaTMM,
a noKa 6y^eM jkmtb, KaK yMeeM». H. Ha3ap6aeB m noKOMHbrfi T. AjmeB noBTopn-

JIM 3Ty MblCJIb B pa3HbDC BblCTynjieHMHX fleCHTKM pa3. M XOTH B MOTMBaUMM 3TMX

3aflBjieHMii oneBMjjeH sjieMeHT CBoeKopbiCTMH, ecTb b hmx cboh npaBfla.

fleMOKpaTOH — oGmenejiOBeHecKaa HopMa, m ee MoryT aocTMrHyTb (m, one-

BMflHO, B KOHeHHOM CHeTC flOCTMrayr) BCe. H.HBMJB13anMOHHbin (paKTOp He 3aK-

pbmaeT pjih Koro-TO nyrb k aocTMHceHMio aeMOKpaTMM BOBce, ho Jimiib aejiaer
ero Gojiee mjim MeHee Tpy^HbiM, a BpeMH, HeoBxoflHMoe rjih ee ppcm/OKem/m, —
Sojiee mjim MeHee flJiMTejibHbiM. CaMO JKe HanpaBJieHMe — Ha flocTMjKeHMe pe-

MOKpaTPIM 3TMM (paKTOpOM TaK JKe He OnpefleJIHeTCH, KaK HMKaKMMM MHflM-

BMflyaJIbHblMM MJIM COI^MaJTbHblMM OCoSeHHOCTHMM yHeHMKOB He OnpefleJIHIOTCH

hm npaBMJia pyccKOM rpaMMaTMKM, hm Tpe6oBaHMe ee ycBoeHMH. OjjHaKO crpa-
HaM c pa3HbiMM KyjibTypaMM npMxoflMTCH npeoflOJieBaTb pa3Hbie Tpy#HOCTM, m

#JIH flOCTMJKeHMH HOpMbI MM HyJKHO pa3HOe BpeMfl. floCTMHb pycCKOM rpaMOTHO-

ctm MOJKeT jhoGom HopMaJibHbiM HejiOBeK. Ho cbmy npMexaBiuero b MocKBy b
noMCKax paSoTbi Ha CTpoMKe TaflJKMKa c;jejiaTb sto TpyflHO, m eiviy HyjKHO 6ojh>-
nie BpeMeHM.

MECTO ^EMOKPATMM B MMPE pe3KO M3Merouiocb fla>Ke no cpaBHe-
hmioc 1972 roflOM, Kor^a «Freedom House » CTaJiny6jiMKOBaTbCBOMoneHKM(HTO
b MacurraGax BceMnpHOii mctopmm — oneHb HeBojibnioii cpoK). Toiyja, b 1972-m,
M3 151 He3aBMCMMOM cTpaHbi TOJibKO 21 (13,9 npoueHTa) nojiyHMJia ouemcy 1 m
19 (12,6 npoueHTa) — oueHKy 2. CeMHac M3 195 CTpaH nepBBix — 59 (30 npoueH-
tob), a BTopbix — 26 (13,3 npoueHTa). Pacnaa CCCP caM no ce6e He npnBeji k
ycnexaM aeMOKpaTMn. Tojibko neTbipe CTpaHbi, BXOflMBiinie b ero cocTaB, npn-
HeM caMbie MajieHbKMe (Tpn CTpaHbi BajrriiM m Moji^OBa), MMewT cewnac jiyn-
myio oueHKy, neM oGman no3flHecoBeTCKaH (4). Bojiee toto, iihtb CTpaH MMeioT
Ty JKe oneHKy, hto m ^oropGaHeBCKirii CoBeTCKMM Cok>3 (6), a TpM — xy^iiiyio
oqeHKy — 7. Ho pacnaa coi^Jiarepa npwBeji k GbicTpoii fleMOKpaTH3auMM Bcex

eBpOneMCKMX COLtMaJIIlCTMHeCKMX CTpaH M, KaK 3TO HM yflMBMTejIbHO, Mohtojimm,

KOTopaa npoHHO yaep>KMBaeT oueHKy 2. KpoMe Toro, 3a sto BpeMH npomjiM m co-
BepuieHHO He CBH3aHHbie c pacna^oM CCCP m couJiarepa iimpoKOMacniTaGHbie
npoueccbi fleMOKpaTM3aitnw — ,o;eMOKpaTM3aHMH IOjkhom EBponw (McnaHMM,
nopTyrajiMM, Tpei^MM) m BojiburnHCTBa CTpaH JlaTMHCKoii AMepMKM.

A ecjiM B3HTB 6ojibiHMe BpeMeHHbie oTpe3KM, to MacuiTaSw ycnexoB ^e-

MOKpaTMM npOCTO rpaHflM03HbI. ECJIM 6bl 3a^HMM HMCJIOM nOCTaBMTb OUeHKM

pa3HbiM CTpaHaM, CKaJKeM, 3a 1900 rofl, oueHKy 1, oneBMflHO, He nojiyHMJia 6bi
hm o^Ha CTpaHa, m jimuib HecKOjaKO nojiyHMjiM 6w oiteHKM 2 m 3. Te CTpaHbi, b
kotopmx ceiiHac ycTaHOBjieHbi cTa6MjibHbie neMOKpaTMM, eme oTHocMTejib-
ho HeflaBHO npomjiM nepe3 CTpaiaHbie TOTajiMTapHbie flMKTaTypbi (rMTjiep m
MyccojiMHM otctoht ot Hac Bcero Ha flBa noKoneHMa). Bee TpM CTpaHbi BajrrMM,
icoTopbie TaK ycneniHO m BbicTpo co3,qajiM ceMnac aeMOKpaTMnecKMe CMCTeMbi, b
MOKBoeHHbiM nepMOfl (JIwTBa — b 1926 ro,ny, a 3ctohmh m JIaTBMH — b 1933-m) npM-

a. OyPMAH

24

itjjih k poKMMaM, 3HaHMTejn>Ho 6onee 6jim3kmm k TenepeuiHHM ueHTpajibHoa3MaTC-
kmm, neM k TenepeuiHHM SajiTuwcKHM. 3to ceiiHac C. Hhh30b BBirjiflflMT rpoTecKHOM
m fla»<e HecKOJibKO KapMKaxypHOM (pMrypoM, a b KOHqe 1920-x — 1930-x roflax b
KaiKflOM cTpaHe IQjkhoh m HeHTpajrbHOJi EBponti Gmjio no HMH30By.

fleMOKpaTMH — oGteKTMBHaH I^eJIb, K KOTOpOM flBMJKeTCH COBpeMeHHOe

HejioBenecTBO. Hm nHBMjrH3auMOHHaH npMHa,n,Jie:>KHocTb, hm KaKMe-To ppywie
KyjibTypHbie m McropMHecKHe ocoGeHHOCTM He onpeflejimoT hm 3toh nejiH, hm

HeM36e3KHOCTM flBMtfteHMH K Heft. OHM OnpejjeJIHIOT TOJIbKO TO, HTO KTO-TO M3

swymMx npoxo^MT paccTOHHMe 6bicrpo m 6e3 Tpyca, kto-to njieTeTCH, ocraHaB-
jmBaeTCH m aajKe nepMOflwnecKM noBopanwBaeT Ha3afl. Ho 06m.ee paccTOHHMe
flo i^ejiM y Kanc^oro M#ymero Bee Mce co BpeineHeM coKpamaeTCH, a Tex, kto yjKe
£o6peji, CTaHOBMTCH Bee Gojibiue.

IIOCTCOBeTCKMH MMp, BepHee, CTpaHbl CHr (nOCTCOBeTCKMM MMp 6e3 BaJi-

tmm), ceiroac Haxo^MTca npw6jiM3MTejibHo Ha tom aece ypoBHe fleMOKpaTKnecKO-
ro pa3BMTMH, KaK MMp IQhchoh m DjeHTpaJibHOM EBponw b 1920 — 1930-e roflbi.
Ho MMp b uejioM M3MeHMJica. ABTopMTapHbie m TOTajurrapHbie pewcwMbi MejKBO-
eHHoro nepMo^a 6bijiM cMJibHee, yBepeHHee b ce6e, ohm Haxo^MJiwcb b 6oJiee 6jia-
ronpMHTHOM fljiH hmx cpe,ne. HaniM aBTopMTapHbie npaBMTeJiw BpyT, MMHTMpy-

K)T aeMOKpaTMK) M TOBOpHT, HTO MX CTpaHaM HyMCHO BpeMH ftJIH COSflaHMH

fleMOKpaTMHecKofi cncTeMbi. IIocjieflHee — He jiojkb. BpeMH flejicTBMTejibHO hjok-
ho, xoth oneHb TpyflHo npeflCTasMTb ce5e cMTyaipno, Kor^a TaKoii npaBMTejib CKa-
HceT: «Bot Tenepb sto BpeMH Hacrajio, m h Mory yiiTM m nycTMTb k BJiacTH cbomx

npOTMBHMKOB». O npMUieCTBMM STOrO BpeMeHM OHM MJIM MX npeeMHMKM y3HaiOT,

KaK y3Haji 3. IHeBap,rjHafl3e, no TOjmaM Ha yjinnax, TpeGyiomMM mx OTCTaBKM m

fleMOKpaTMHeCKMX Bbl6opOB.

nPMMEHAHMfl

1 MeTOflojiorwio ou/bhok cm. http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/methodology.htrn.

2 OijeHjcw Bcex CTpaH c 1972 rcwa cm. http://www.freedomhouse.org/ratings/allscore04.xls.

3 «Freedom House* — HenpaBMTejibCTBeHHaJi opramraauHH, m HeT hhkskhx comhchkh, hto b cbohx ou.eH-
Kax oHa He pyKOBOECTByeTCH HHTepecaMH aMepMKaHCKoro npaBHTe.jn.CTBa. Ho 3KcnepTbi Moiyr, kohciho, b
KaKoii-To Mepe HaxoflHTbca nop, BJiwflHweM rocnoflCTByxHUwx b o5mecTBe HacTpoeroift.

* TaK, MHe KaweTCH, hto ouchkh Pocchm b ejiwjHHcKoe Bpenwi 6mjih HecKcwibKo 3aBbimeHbi. Oueirea 3,
flaHHan Pocchm 3a 1993 rofl — ro/s, paccTpejia napjiaMewra w. npuHHTHH Tenepeumeii KoHCTHTymm, MHe npefl-
CTaBJiHeTCH cjimiukom BwcoKoii. C apyroii CTopoHbi, cHMMceroie oueHKH Moji^obu 3a nocjieflHMe ro^u c 2 ao 3
BM3bisaeT no^o3peHMe: He cBH3aHo jim oho c npiixoflOM k BjiacTK KOMMyHMCTOB. B o6ohx cjiynanx Ha oLjeHKW

MorjIM nOBJIKHTb aHTMKOMMyHMCTWHeCKHe yCTaHOBKH 3KCnepT0B.

s PacnpefleJieHwe nojiMTHHecKnx CMCTeM Ha HameM npocrpaHCTBe npH&nM3MTeJibHo cooTBeTCTByeT nx
pacnpeflejieHJKO b MHpe. TaK, CBo6oflHbix CTpaH y Hac 3 H3 15, to ecTb 20 npoueHTOB (b MHpe — 44), nacTHMHO
CBo6oflHbix — 33 npoyeHTa (b MHpe — 34), HecBoBoflHbix — 47 npoueHTOB (b MMpe — 26). IIocTCOBeTCKKK
MHp b uejioM HecKcwibKo MeHee cBoSoflHwft, ieM ocTajibHoe lejiOBenecTBo, ho npMnncbiBaTb 3to (paieropy
coBeTCKoro HacjiewtH HMKaKwx ocHoBaHMft HeT.

6 IIpo6jieMa BJiMHHHa ocoOeHHocTeft pa3Hwx peimrwft Ha pa3Bn™e fleMOKpaTHH u pbimca HMeeT Heo6o3-
Pmmjto jiMTepaTypy, m 3flecb Mbi ee He 3aTparnBaeM. HaM BajKHa KOHCTaTaipiH cb.h3m, a He ee rrpwofHw.

7 CTpaH, KOTopwe, KaK TypKMeHMH, nojiyuuBi MaKCMMaJibHyK) oi;eHKy 7 m no uncajie nojDiTWHecKHx, u no
uncajie rpawflaHCKMx cbo6o«, — Bcero 8. 3to CeBepHan Kopen, JImbhh, CwpwH, CyflaH, CayflOBCKaa ApaBMa,
caMa TypKMeHHH, Ky6a h BiipMa.

8 TaK, BeJiopyccMH He HMeeT caMOAepHcaBHOM TparomMM, b Heii 5ojibinoe KaTOJiwHecKoe MeHbiiiMHCTBO, m
TeM He MeHee OHa MMeeT oijeHKy 6, a Poccmh — 5. TyprcMeHMH b npouuiOM — TOMce KoneBoe o6mecTBo, KaK m
Ka3axcTaH c KKpni3Meft. Ho cmeHKa Ka3axcTaHa m Kmpto3mm — 5, a TypKMeHHH — 7. HaBepHoe, mohcho
HawTM KaKiie-TO MCTopH^ecKHe o&bHCHennH pa3JiMHHio TenepeuiHHX no/MTKnecKHX cmctcm bthx CTpaH, ho

BPHA JIM 0HH GyflyT CTporMMH H OflH03HaiHbIMH.

'OHeBMflHO, ppVlCTBUe JIMMHOCTHblX M CJIJTHaKHblX, CMTyaTKBHblX IpaKTOpOB He TOJIbKO OTpaHMHeHO (HM-
KTO He MOr 6bl C03flaTb B nOCTCOBeTCKOli TypKMeHMM pa3BMTyK> fleMOKpaTMW, a B 3CT0HKM pa3BMTbIH TOTa-

jiMTapM3M), ho oho eiye orpaHMHeHo m no BpeMeHH. TaK, BeJiopyccua, oieBJWHO, nofl BJiMHHPieM jnrmoCTHoro
u CMTyatiHOHHbix dpaKTopoB HMeeT He coBceM tot peacwM, KOTopbiii ecTecrBeHeH fljw Hee no ee KHBMJiH3anii-
oHHOMy THny. M moskho npejnoJiaraTb, hto c yxofloM A. JlyKameHKo, MCve3HOBeHHeM cmibHoro jiMHHocrHoro

dpaKTOpa, pejKHM 6blCTpo M npOHHO M3MeHMTCH B fleMOKpaTMHeCKOM HanpaBJieHKM. OTHOCHTejIbHO BblCOKaK

CTeneHb p;eMoKpaTMMHOCTH paimero nocTCoBeTCKoro TaasKMKMCTaHa TosKe He cooTBeTCTBoBaJia ero umbmjdi-
3aijnoHHOMy THny h Sbuia BW3BaHo oco6oh CHTyatiMeii.