Home politics, or The growth of trade considered in its relation to labour, pauperism and emigration

ft 1

THE LIBRARY
OF

THE UNIVERSITY

OF CALIFORNIA

LOS ANGELES

HOME POLITICS,

OR THE

GROWTH OF TRADE

CONSIDERED IN ITS RELATION TO

LABOUB, PAUPERISM & EMIGRATION.

BY

DANIEL OKANT.

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LONDON:
LONGMANS, GREEN, READER AND DYER,

TATERNOSTER ROW.

1870.

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21 OCT 1920

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PREFACE.

This book has been written with the desire to
keep it entirely removed from party politics. The
great problem — How are the people to find work
and food— is a distinctly social one, and is so
important for all classes of society that any effort
which can be made to solve it is worth the labour. I
had no pre-conceived theory to uphold, and through-
out I have stated the facts simply as I found them ;
the deductions I have ventured to draw seemed to
flow naturally, but how far the conclusions are
accurate I must leave others to judge.

Daniel Grant.

March, 1870.

12, Cleveland Gardens,
Hyde Park.

;>i;8^9i

CONTENTS,

The Condition of the People ... 1

Free Trade and Reciprocity - - - 10

The Growth of Trade 19

Our Future Trade ..... 62

Population and Food 78

Labour 93

Pauperism 106

Emigration ------- 126

India 146

Resume - ..... 168

HOME POLITICS

OR THE

GROWTH OF TBADE

CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE.

Among the many great questions that are now pressing for
solution, there is one that imperatively demands an answer :
How are the people of our country to be fed? How are
the people to obtain both work and food ? Under all phases
and through all kinds of circumstances this question is ever
presenting itself— it appears in those thrilling episodes of
human misery, when the tortured and the broken, the half-
starved and the reckless, hopeless of the future, flinging on
one side all questions : — seek refuge in death : it appears in
that sense of sullen but half muttered defiance, which is more
or less distinctly traceable amongst a large mass of our
population ; it appears in the outbreak of the Famine Fever,
the continuous increase of our pauper returns and an ever
growing taxation. The reason why this question should take
precedence of all others, is to be found in the broad fact that
it goes to the root of the happiness or the misery, the well
being or the destitution of the great mass of the nation.

B

2 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE.

However much we may disguise or slur over the fact, we
have to stand face to face with difficulties, probably as
profound as those which swept over this land, previously
to the repeal of the Corn Laws. It is well whilst there is
yet time, that we should grasp the problem in its entirety
and do our best to find the solution. The question travels
over a very large surface of ground. It asks what has been
the cause of the past growth of our trade ; and why has it
now ceased to expand ? It asks what is our probable future
with regard to the commerce of the world ? and which way
does our path lie through the dangers that menace us ?

It forces these questions on us, not as abstract problems
on which themes may be written and theories discussed, but
as the great practical necessities of life which are as essential
to our existence as the air we breathe. It has been asked
before, and it may be asked again : is it possible that there
are in this very London of ours the elements of revolution ?
"Who shall answer ? But, whether it be so or not, there is no
question that hunger makes strange havoc with pet theories,
and men, who are placable and kind, when they are passingly
comfortable, are dangerous and deadly, when they crave in
vain both work and food. It cannot be the wish of the great
landed interests of this country, that the large questions
connected with territorial property and their right of holding,
should be bandied about from mouth to mouth, when men
are maddened by the sense of want. It cannot be either
their wish or interest that the fierce sense of wrong, implied
in the fact of class legislation, should be driven home to
fester amid sorrow and despair. The names that many of
them bear, who by labours at the bar, or services in the
battle field, are traditional elements of intellect and courage;
and there is no higher testimony to the aristocracy of our land
than to say, that, representing as they do the relics of the
middle ages in laws that are at once hard, grasping and

CONDITION OE THE PEOPLE. 8

unjust, they have contrived by their broad common sense,
large courtesy and far reaching fairness, to stand amongst
us to-day as a class greatly honored ; but if the sense of
sorrow and misery that now overshadows our land should
deepen, as most probably it will ; if the cry for aid ; — aid
by thought ; aid by care ; aid by law ; should arise and be
not responded to, the monitions and warnings that are every-
where around us will have spoken in vain, and history will
chronicle the results.

Let us for a moment think what are the conditions of
our poor to-day. Apart from the question of our agricul-
tural population, whose almost hopeless lot is best told by
the simple fact, that in many places the luxury of meat is
comparatively unknown; apart from the questions of special
emergency, such as the cotton famine, or the East End
Emigration Society, which has been brought into existence
for the purpose of relieving the great mass of destitution and
poverty in that neighbourhood; apart from all such special
and exceptional cases, we have the general sense of depression
and want everywhere spread around us. It is not necessary
to dwell on the scenes of human misery, where wholesale
suicides or cruel murders, mark the profound despair or
those who lay trembling on the confines of want. It is
equally unnecessary to recall those verdicts that appear
time after time at coroner's inquests under the simple but
expressive phraseology — " Death from Starvation." It is
not necessary to recall these things, because the newspaper
press of the country drives these truths home without stint
and without compromise ; but it may be important to
remember that the individual cases, which thus come to the
surface, are known only by accident, and that the great mass
of misery that suffers and dies, — dies and tells no tale.
Occasionally and by accident the curtain is drawn on one
side, and we see into the midst of the life of poverty that

b 2

4 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE.

surrounds us ; and we then know by the glance thus afforded
us what the general life must be: wasted by poverty, deci-
mated by fever, shattered by want ; and it thus rises before
us, in the full force of its appeal to that sense of human
sympathy which is common to us all.

But the general acceptance of the positions here stated
will be aided by a few facts. Let us see what the barometer
of pauperism has to tell us. Our pauper population in

1866 was - 920,344

1867 „ - 958,824

1868 „ - 1,034,823

and the number is still increasing ; yet these numbers shew
that our pauper population has increased by 114,479 persons
in two years or at the rate of more than 1,000 per week.
Even this large increase does not indicate the exact extent
of poverty, — it points to the still wider field of misery that
exists among the classes from which pauperism is fed. Let
any one think what is the state of destitution through which
a man passes, before he is willing to accept relief and allow
himself to be branded as a pauper. Those who know the
working classes best, know the profound abhorence they
entertain of the Workhouse. Any privation, any sorrow,
any destitution rather than that ; and the natural inference
is, that the pressure of want is not only severe but has been
long enough sustained, to have swept away all articles of
clothing, as well as all household goods, before the sufferers
bend to their fate. Let us take some few instances of what
the present condition shows. A3 one illustration of the
state of destitution take the following :

" Monday, March 8, 1869. — At the last meeting of
" the Chester Guardians, Mr. Brittain, one of the relieving
" officers, stated it as his belief that there never was
" so much destitution in the city, even in an inclement
season, as there was at the present time. He knew

««

CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 5

" poor people who were living on Indian meal and a ' little
"buttermilk."'

The same general illustrations is afforded by this
extract taken from the Pall Mall Gazette of September
30, 1869:—

" Dr. Mitchell, reporting to the commissioners in Lunacy
for Scotland, states that on the occasion of his visit to
Shetland, he saw much stronger and deeper signs of
poverty than he had ever seen before. In the parish of
Unst the year's poor rate is no less than 7s. Id. per pound
of the gross rental. When the taxes, charges and burdens
on land are added to this, he was assured that less than
one-third of the rental will be left the proprietor. All over
Shetland the poor rate has been rapidly and steadily
increasing during the last twenty years— the increase in
some parishes being 700 or 800 per cent. In the parish of
Lerwick, it is said to have risen since 1845 from £40 to
<£900. After his visit to the county he wrote to the
chairman of one of the parochial boards, urging the
extension of relief to a melancholic who clearly needed
care and treatment in an asylum. His request received
prompt attention, but the chairman, a gentleman most
charitably inclined, said, 'in our dealings with the poor we
have always to consider our own impending ruin.'"
The same journal in referring to the general state of
pauperism has the following. —

" July 14, 1869. — Our great industrial centres are
" apparently applying with a free hand some dangerous
" palliative of distress, the money doles of the relieving
" officer, unwarned by the bitter experience of the agricultural
"counties of the southern half of England. Wait awhile,
'• and Lancashire, at her present rate of pauper development
" may range with Wilts, Dorset, or Devon."

The following is extracted from the Lancet of October 9,

6 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE,

1869 : and adds one more illustration of the general destitu-
tion incident to the Metropolis : —

"Famine Fever. — The interesting communication of
" Dr. Murchison, which we print in another column, draws
" attention to the renewed prevalence in London of a
" disease which, fortunately, has of late years heen rarely
" seen in this country. Relapsing fever may be broadly
" said to be the product of destitution pure and simple ;
" but once established, it becomes communicable by con-
tagion. As regards the spread of the disease in London,
the statistics of the Fever Hospital undoubtedly point, as
" Dr. Murchison observes, to the fact that the disease is
" becoming distinctly epidemic, — the numbers of admission
" for the months of May, June, July, August, and September
" being 4, 3, 7, 15, and 34, respectively; and 7 admissions
" having taken place on October 1st. The poorer classes of
" London are, we fear, threatened with a terrible scourge
" during the approaching winter ; for not merely is there
" great danger of relapsing fever taking formidable dimen-
" sions, but, as Dr. Murchison reminds us, such an event
" is nearly always accompanied by an increased diffusion
" of typhus."

In addition to all these, the reports from every part of
England indicate a great and growing pressure, not only on
the absolutely poor, but on the trading classes immediately
above them. In one parish of London, that of Lambeth, it
has been found necessary at one sitting to issue 400 warrants
of distress, in order to obtain payment of the poor rates.
At another place, that of Willesden, a magistrate stated that
he had done nothing all one day but sign summonses and
warrants for the same purpose. Facts of this kind are not
open to statistical accurracy, but they are almost beyond the
necessity of statistics, for they are matters of universal accep-
tance, and can be more or less distinctly verified by us all.'

CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 7

The general recognition of our present condition of pau-
perism and labour is best illustrated by the great number of
pamphlets that issue from the press and by the acknowledged
utterances of our leading men; although the reasons and
explanations given by them are strangely at variance. One
gentleman finds the cause of our present distress to be
drunkenness; another finds it in the want of education;
a third in the present condition of the land ; a fourth in
Trade Union combinations; Mr. Bright thinks it is con-
nected with the want of cheap cotton, whilst Lord Overstone
thinks it is an ordinary check and that it will right itself.
In the face of such divergencies, with a stagnant or
retrograde trade, and with a large mass of our population
unemployed, it seems time that we should collect our facts
and see what they teach us.

The possible results of a condition, akin to our present,
is thus referred to in Mr. John Stuart Mill's Political
Economy, when speaking on the question of Wages, there
is the following: —

" If the growth of the towns and of the capital
" there employed, by which the factory operatives are
"maintained at their present average rate of wages
"notwithstanding their rapid increase, did not also absorb
" a great part of the annual addition to the rural popu-
" lation, there seems no reason in the present habits of the
" people why they should not fall into as miserable a
"condition as the Irish previous to 1846; and if the
" market of our manufactures should, I do not say fall
"off, but even cease to expand at the rapid rate of the
" last fifty years, there is no certainty that this fate may
" not be reserved for us."

In the first place, it is undeniable that we have a pauper
population considerably in excess of one million of people ;
in the second place, it is unquestioned and unquestionable,

8 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE,

that our export trade has not grown for more than three
years : —

Our export3 in 1866 were £188,917,536

„ 1867 „ 181,183,971

1868 „ 179,463,644

But, to understand the force of these figures, it must be
clearly remembered, that England cannot feed her own peo-
ple ; — that we have been under the necessity of importing
foreign corn since 1793, and that the probability is, that one-
half of the entire population of our country is fed by corn,
grown on foreign soil. This corn that thus feeds our people,
has to be paid for by some means ; and it is paid for by the
means of our export trade. So long as our export trade
continues to grow at a sufficiently rapid rate, all goes well;
but, so soon as that trade ceases to grow, the pressure of an
ever increasing population trenches on the means of life, and
pauperism and destitution increase.

The significance of the position will be best appreciated
by the recognition, that our clear nett gain, as a mere matter
of population, is about 220,000 per annum, or at the rate of
more than 4,000 per week, the statistics being: —

1865 .... 20,990,946

1866 .... 21,210,020

1867 ... - 21,429,509

1868 .... 21,649,377
showing a clear increase of 658,431 since 1865. The question,
therefore, before us, is not only how are we to feed our existing
population, but how are we to feed one that is continuously
increasing and increasing at the rate here indicated. Our
trade during twenty years, 1847 — 1866 had answered all
questions, because it had grown with a rapidity sufficiently
great to find work for the ever increasing population ; but,
as its growth for the time seems definitely checked we stand
face to face with the problem : how are the people to find at
once both work and food ?

CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 9

The results that will follow from our present position
are very evident, for, as population continues to grow,
whether there is work or not, it will be obvious that we
may look forward to a continual increase of pauperism and
destitution until some counteracting' agency comes into play.
The question will then arise, in what do these counteracting
agencies consist 1 To obtain an answer, it will be necessary
to weigh the question of Free Trade and Reciprocity to
trace out clearly the causes of the growth of trade, specify-
ing those which are under our own control and those that
will, in the ordinary course of events, continue to develcpe
trade by their own action. Beyond these, it will be neces-
sary to trace out the present condition of labour in our own
country ; the relation of population to food ; the probabilities
that surround the question of foreign competition as affecting
our future trade; the question of emigration and coloniza-
tion, as affording the proper means of removing a certain
portion of our surplus population and at the same time
developing trade ; and lastly, the value of our Indian
dependency. But all these points will fail of carrying their
necessary weight, unless the conviction is unwaveringly
fixed, that the time has come when the country requires
definite and vigorous efforts to restore it to its own place
amongst the growing powers of the world, and that, in order
to achieve this result, it is necessary to see our exact
position.

The first point which will be discussed is Free Trade
and Reciprocity.

10

CHAPTER I.

FREE TRADE.

There is no term more misused than that of Free Trade.
From many platforms, in many newspapers and from the
mouths of many men, who are accepted as the leading
exponents of far reaching political thought, the term Free
Trade is used with a laxity and carlessness that cannot be
too strongly condemned. No fact is more patent than the
one that, either from ignorance or indifference, men are
applying to Free Trade arguments and reasonings which
were never enunciated by its founder, and which are not
legitimate deductions from its principles. Free Trade, in its
broadest and fullest sense, means the absolute freedom for
every country to deal with every other country, without the
intervention of either import or export duties. It asserts
still further that such a course of commercial policy is
distinctly beneficial to all concerned ; but it neither asserts
nor does it imply, that the reduction of import duties in one
country will be the cause of the growth of the export trade
of that same country, except so far as that reduction will
stimulate reflex action.

It seems almost idle to point out, that the reduction of an
import duty upon any one article of home consumption —
such as sugar for instance — can have no reference as to the
growth of any one of our exports — such as iron for instance —
except so far as the mere incidental relationship of the
countries whence the sugar comes, may be stimulated by the
purchase of more iron goods arising from the increased profits

FREE TRADE, 11

of an increased trade. The reduction of an export duty is
based on the assumption, that the cheapness and freedom,
induced by the removal of the duty, will stimulate increased
consumption; but such duties are almost non-existent, and for
all practical purposes may be left unnoticed. The reduction of
an import duty finds at once its justification and explanation,
by the growth of the imports on which the duty has been re-
duced. If the import duties on tea had been reduced and the
consumption of tea had not increased it would have proved
that, with the classes who drink tea, the duty did not
prejudice the sale, and as such, the reduction of duty would
have been a mistake, as it would have wasted a given amount
of revenue. But when we find, as we do find, that when the
duties are reduced upon the great necessaries of life, the
rebound is large and vigorous, no further justification is
required as to the wisdom of the abolition of the duty.
The broad fact, that each reduction of our import duties
has been followed by increased consumption, in some cases
to so large an extent as to enable the reduced duty to
produce a larger revenue than it did under the higher rates,
establishes once and finally the wisdom of such legislation.
It is necessary to insist that this is the justification of the
reduction of our import duties ; because there is a grave
tendency to appeal to the growth of our export trade as a
justification of the reduction of our import duties. The two
points are broadly and essentially distinct. Our export trade
grows by, and is dependant upon, a series of special causes
which is altogether distinct from the question of the reduction
of our import duties. In what these consist is attempted to
be shewn in the next chapter.

All duties are in themselves evils, but which must exist,
and solely, for the purposes of revenue; being justifiable, only
on the ground, that they afford the most certain and the
least onerous mode of collecting such revenue. By a mere

12 FREE TRADE.

accident, some duties on manufactured goods have acted
as a protection to home manufactures ; and by an entire
transition of thought, the duty, instead of being viewed as a
means for producing revenue, has come to be viewed as a
means for protecting home manufacturers from foreign
competition. It is therefore wise, for all who accept the
doctrine of Free Trade, to admit that the reduction of a
duty may be distinctly prejudicial to a special class who
have been fostered by the existence of the duty into a state
of dependance. The reduction of the duty on silk is said
to have produced a large amount of misery at Coventry
and Macclesfield and men clamour for its re-imposition ;
by a curious coincidence, numerous meetings have been
held in France to effect the same purpose in that country.
In each country the special injury, inseparable from change
of tariff, has produced a clamour, which marks a sense of
depression and want, but which is absolutely worthless as a
matter of argument. And it may be very justly asserted that
the outcry of the silk-weavers of our country is, in one
sense, a direct justification of the removal of the duty ;
for it proves conclusively that our own manufacturers were
unable to compete on fair terms with France, and therefore
the whole of the country was indirectly taxed to uphold the
special branch of trade carried on by the silk- weavers.

The same general feeling, that has been expressed in
connection with the Cobden Treaty, was expressed by the
agriculturists at the time of the projected repeal of the
Corn Laws : it was asserted throughout the whole of the
agricultural districts, that the farmers could not hold their
own if the import duties on corn were removed. The Corn
Laws were, however, repealed in spite of the clamour of
the agriculturists, and what has been the result? Our

iculturists have not only been enabled to hold their own,
but have improved their position year by year ever since,

FEEE TRADE". 13

and the farmer of to-day is not only much richer but, as
a class, the whole character is changed : from being slow,
careless and heavy, he has become shrewd, scientific and
active. The nobler qualities, that often lie latent in the
English nature, have been developed by necessity, and the
man who, according to his own idea, was unequal to the
task of fighting the battle of competition without aid, has
proved himself more than equal to the emergency. The
same results will follow with reference to silk weaving, when
the consequences of change have had time to right themselves.
When the circumstances settle down to their natural level,
the men, who are to-day desponding, will look around and
find, that, as the field is perfectly open, they will be able
to hold their own by using the energy, care and taste that
are inherent in us as a people, Already some facts clearly
show, that they are beginning to see such a way out of their
difficulty. And it is quite clear, that as we buy our silk free
of import duty (the French can be no better placed) and there-
fore any protective duty would be simply a premium on
incompetence; — a condition, which is not only unsound, but
one, that our own manufacturers would be the very first to
repudiate, when brought clearly home to their minds. The
difference between the French and ourselves is simply a
difference of machinery and skill.

It is of course quite conceivable, that very harsh results
are at times to be traced to the rapid removal of an import
duty on manufactured goods. Many men who have been
reared in a trade, and who know no other, find, when old
age is creeping on them, that their trade is passing from
them by an Act of Parliament. It would seem that, placed
as our country at present is, some action should be taken to
soften the severity of such legislative changes. It may be
necessary, as a matter of broad policy, to remove a special
duty ; but it can never be wise to produce misery in so doing.

14 FREE TRADE.

There are some countries in which Free Trade has had
some opportunity of realizing the ideas of those who uphold
its doctrines — in Europe notably in the Hanse Towns and
Holland — and it has proved itself true to the principles of its
originator. These states have reduced the duties on their
imports and, as a consequence, their imports have grown.

It appears necessary to insist again and again upon
Free Trade axioms, as there is a distinct tendency to uphold
changes on grounds that will not bear analysis. It has
been more or less definitely asserted, that the growth of
our export trade has been due to our recent legislative enact-
ments, meaning by that, that our reduction of import duties
has been the cause of the growth of our export trade, the
result is, that, when our trade ceases to grow with its
accustomed energy, men turn round and attack Free Trade
for the shortcomings, for which Free Trade is in no sense
responsible. The term " Free Trade " first obtained its
currency during the agitation for the repeal of the Corn
Laws, the point aimed at being Free Trade in Corn ; but
when that result was achieved, the men who had aided
in the passing of the great measure had become known
as Free Traders and thence has originated the very open
phrase of Free Trade. The wonderful growth of our export
trade since 1848 had dazzled men's eyes so completely, that
they neither asked nor cared to know how it came about.
They assumed, with a grave respectability, that it was due
to Free Trade; what was implied by the term, what were
the limitations, or what was the general reasoning on which
it was based, few cared to inquire and still fewer cared to
say. Circumstances have now somewhat changed. For
the first time during the last twenty years our commerce
has ceased to expand and it is every where asked — Why is
this ? How comes it that the powers that have fostered our
trade, until it has become the envy of the world, have

FREE TRADE. 15

ceased to operate ? At a late Free Trade meeting at Man-
chester Mr. Wilson, in quoting statistics to show the value
of our Free Trade policy or what passes current under
that name, gave, with admirable clearness and force, the
statistics illustrative of the general growth of our trade ;
and, so far as the reasoning had reference to the advantages
derived by the great mass of the people from the abolition
of duties on all the necessaries of life, the position was
absolutely unanswerable ; but when from the same figures
deductions were made, as illustrative of the cause of the
enormous growth of our export trade, the result aimed at
was neither so conclusive nor so satisfactory, and the reason
why is not far to seek. So long as the question rested upon
the removal of import duties and the growth of our imports,
the figures were clear and the connection positive and
satisfactory. One tabulated form after another answered
one question after another, until the brain wearied of the
endless iteration. Beyond this, there was the great moral
truth, that the toiling millions of our country have the
unchallangeable right to buy food in the cheapest markets
of the world. But when the orator, growing with his subject,
spread out before his enthusiastic audience the growth of our
export trade — marvellous in its very fecundity — and claiming
to be the direct result of Free Trade action, the reasoning
halted. With an instinctive sagacity, men asked, and asked
justly, what is the connection between the reduction of
import duties and the growth of export trade ? Where is
the link ? What is the sense of dependance that unites the
one to the other ? To say, as men have said, that the growth
of our imports is the direct stimulus to the growth of our
exports, is to say that which the veriest tyro in the
knowledge of statistical facts will know to be inaccurate.
A reference to the Board of Trade returns will show what
such assertions are worth. The totals of our imports and of

16 FREE TRADE.

our exports bear some relationship to each other, but the
imports from, and the exports to, individual countries vary-
to an enormous extent. But it is said, if the growth of
our trade be not dependent upon the connection between
our imports and exports, on what does it depend ? How
comes it, that more or less coincident with the repeal of our
various import duties, there has ever been an increase in our
export trade ? The answer is, firstly, that this is not strictly-
accurate ; and secondly, that a series of other causes was at
play whose influences are distinctly traceable. With regard
to the first, from 1840 to 1848, a period of nine years, the
total growth of our export trade was as follows : —
1848 - - - - £52,840,445
1840 --- - 51,406,430

Being a nominal increase of - £1,434,015
And yet, during these years, our Free Trade policy had been
more or less definitely at work — the duties on corn, rice,
coffee, timber, currants, wool, glass, sugar, cotton, butter,
cheese, &c, had either been repealed or largely reduced. If
the reduction of our import duties be a cause of the growth
of our export trade, how came it that no more definate
evidence of it was shown during the nine years here specified?
To all this there seems but one answer, that is, that, either
from the apparent insignificance of the subject or from the
pleasure derived in following out the wondrous harmony that
always belongs to a great general principle, the bulk of those,
who have been instrumental in bringing our country to a due
recognition of the acknowledged value of Free Trade, did not
think it worth while to trace out the more common-place
causes that absolutely underlie the development of all
trade. But, as different times are now dawning upon us,
and, as the claim for reciprocity is loudly proclaimed, it
becomes necessary to trace out more definitely some of the

/

FREE TRADE. 17

causes that have developed our trade, in order that we may
clearly understand on vrhat influence we can rely for its
further growth.

Throughout the whole of the discussion it has been
assumed that Free Trade really exists ; yet nothing can be
further from the fact. Free Trade exists in part in England,
but as regards both Europe and America it has substantially
no existence. With certain exceptions heavy import duties
are still levied on English goods throughout the continent
generally. The same remarks apply with reference to
America, so that our position is this : we, as a country, buy
in the cheapest markets, and the great bulk of the nations
of the Continent and America do not. The government
has just issued a return of the duties levied on English
manufactures, entering foreign ports, and which embraces
the following countries: Russia, Sweden, Norway, Denmark,
Zollverein, Hamburg, Bremen, Holland, Belgium, France,
Portugal, Spain, Italy, Papal States, Austria,- Switzerland,
Greece, Turkey, United States. With one exception, that
of Hamburg, every article of English manufacture has to pay
duty. In one case as high as £56 10s, 4d. per cwt., and
on a large number of cases at 15, 20, 25, 30, and 40 per
cent, ad val\ so that the check upon the growth of our
manufactures is both very strong and very marked. There
is one point, on which those who claim reciprocity, are
distinctly right. They see, and seeing claim, that other
nations should trust us as we trust them ; but the error of
this position is, that we have no power to compel other
nations to follow out our doctrines and any attempt to
punish them by reimposing import duties would simply
recoil on ourselves. If import duties were imposed as a
mere matter of reprisal, the actual result would be that all
consumers throughout the country would be taxed for the
mere support of a particular trade. Besides which the mere

c

18 FREE TRADE.

fact of a tariff being imposed as a coercion would in itself be
a mistake, for though something may be gained by judgment
and tact, but little can be hoped for from threats and anger.
The position of our manufacturing industry is one of grave
difficulty, but we shall achieve more by calm sense and good
temper, than we shall ever approximate to by quarrelling.

There is no doubt that if the foreign tariffs could be
reduced the immediate effect would be a large increase of
our export trade. But, as that is one of those things still
lying in the future, we can only recognise that Free Trade
has not done its work, and that, as we cannot compel other
nations to modify their tariffs against their will, our business
is to leave these points to the action of the future, and to
trace out other causes that will stand us in equally good
stead. And as a preliminary, it will be necessary to analyze
carefully the various conditions connected with our past
growth of trade, for which purpose we will pass to the
next chapter.

19
CHAPTER n.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

It has been asserted that the evidence already deducible
from our export trade points to the existence of a series
of special causes influencing and developing its growth.
The question now before us is to understand clearly in what
they consist, and how and under what circumstances they have
come into play. In order that the point may be distinctly
understood, it will be wise for us to take some special year
from which all comparisons shall be made ; for that purpose
the year 1840 has been selected, it being previous to the
development of Free Trade doctrines ; and, as the comparison
will be carried on up to the present year, 1869, we shall have
before us the whole range of figures and events on which our
present commercial policy is founded.

To obtain a clear conception of a subject, it may be neces-
sary, at times, to analyse it carefully into its component parts.
In applying this course to the question before us, we find that
our exports from 1840 to 1868 show a growth of about 128
millions: our exports in 1840 being £'51,406,430, and our
exports in 1868 being £179,463,644. The questions then
arise, — how have our exports grown ; to what countries have
they gone ; and what special causes can we trace by which
their growth has been accelerated or retarded. As a broad
statement of the case, the increase of our exports has been
mainly in those sent to France, Holland, Ilanse Towns,
Russia, Turkey, Egypt, Japan, California, the United States,
Australia, India and China; and the growth in the exports to
these respective countries is more or less directly coincident
with certain special causes that came into play at the time

c2

20 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

their trade was developed. For instance, the growth of oar
trade with France was distinctly dne to the Crimean War and
the Cobden Treaty ; that with the Hanse Towns to our Exhi-
bition and their own reduced tariffs; that with Kussia and
Turkey, to the Crimean War and to the relationship esta-
blished with those countries by the influence of our govern-
ment and capital ; that with Japan and Hong Kong to the
opening of free ports ; that with Australia and California to
the gold discoveries ; and that with India and China to the
military operations connected with our position. The statis-
tics of our trade with each of these countries will be taken
separately in detail, and traced through to their legitimate
results. By this means we shall arrive at a sound con-
clusion on the principles that more immediately affect the
growth of trade.

It will be well, as a preliminary step, to have before our
minds the one broad fact, that the producer and consumer
form the basis of all trade ; and that the merchant, wholesale
dealer, exporter, agent, and retail seller are simply middle
men by whom, for the sake of convenience, the goods pass
from the producer to the consumer. We have also to shift
our mind away from the totals of exports, which are only
the chronicled results — to the consideration of the causes that
produce sale amongst the consumers themselves. When we
say that so many hundreds of millions of yards of cotton
have been exported, we have to bring our mind to watch in
detail, how the great mass becomes disintegrated piece by
piece until we notice where a few yards are sold by the retail
seller to the poor consumer. That point forms the turning
point of commerce. The causes that influence the develop-
ment of such sales are the causes that influence our whole
export trade; for the commerce of the world is based on the
necessities of the many, not on the fancies of the few ; and
whatever cause can be pointed out as naturally acting on

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 21

the great body of the people may be accepted as a cause
that developes our bulk trade.

What, then, are the causes that directly affect the develop-
ment of trade amongst consumers ? 1st, Knowledge of the
existence of manufactures ; 2nd, knowledge of the people by
whom these are produced ; and, 3rd, the opportunity to
purchase. With regard to the first, it does not matter how
good, how cheap, or how useful any goods may be, if they
are not known to those to whom they are fitted, no trade
takes place. Nor does it matter how superb an article
may be, unless it fulfils the conditions of sufficient publicity
the same result will follow. If a man had a statue by
Phidias or a picture by Michael Angelo and placed it
in a back street, it might remain for hundreds of years
unsold and unknown ; but if the same statue or picture were
placed in a leading thoroughfare of London or Paris, it
would soon find a purchaser : because the knowledge of its
existence would be sure to reach those who desired to possess
it. A nation is in a back street whose intercourse with other
nations is limited, and whose means of communication are
imperfect. And any cause, such as railways, that tends to
remove these impediments is a cause that developes trade.

It adds but little te the force of this assertion to say that,
it is an accepted axiom, that a tradesman requires to make
his wares known, in order to bring their use, beauty or fitness,
clearly and definitely before those whom he wishes to become
purchasers ; and should he fail or be prevented doing this,
his trade will stand still. If, on the contrary, he takes the
opposite course, and bring his wares well under the notice
of other men, he will create a want and supply it at the
same time. How many of us are there who go on from
year to year without some given article, until by accident
we see it in a shop window, are struck by its appropriateness
and purchase it, and ever after it becomes to us a necessity.

22 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

Such a case is a simple illustration of the processes by which
trade grows; and the public recognition of this principle,
which bears evidence, in our export returns, of having
aided the growth of our past export trade, first found its
utterance in our International Exhibitions, which are nothing
more than great national bazaars.

The illustrations given are simply the illustrations of
the influence the goods themselves have upon the develop-
ment of trade by being brought into sufficient notice.
Such a cause is perfectly apart from any question a3
to who the producer or seller may be; but, beyond the
mere influence of the goods themselves, there is always
the secondary influence mutually exercised by peoples. So
long as a nation suffers from prejudice and the want of
knowledge, so long as one people stands to another in the
relationship that they neither know nor care to know, so
long does trade languish. Any cause that removes these
obstacles, developes trade : and no cause has more clearly
produced these results than War.

It will be readily admitted, that the knowledge that
one nation has of another will vary very largely under
the action of different causes. For instance, it will be
quite clear that the sort of knowledge the Turks, as
a people, had of us as a people, would be very dif-
ferent after, to what it was before, the outbreak of the
Crimean war. The mere contact of the two peoples, under
such circumstances, would inevitably create a sympathy
different from that which previously existed. The same
remarks will apply to Egypt, France and Kussia and, with
some modifications, also to India and China, and the
results are manifested in our trading with these various
countries. It has been asserted that war has a distinct
influence on the Growth of Trade. The statistical proofs
of this fact will appear further on, detailed in connection

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 23

With the various countries that have been selected ; but the
broad question is, how comes it, that war should produce
such results? The answer is, war acts through a series of
causes. Not only are people brought distinctly into con-
tact with one another; — not only are conditions established
which underlie all commercial life; but the power of a
country to buy or sell, the characteristics that belong to
her, her capacities of growth, her undeveloped resources
are all more or less brought vividly into view, and thus
stimulate trade. Notably has this been the case with
Turkey — and the result has been, that Capital, the great
sinew alike of war and peace, has flowed continuously into
her coffers. Loan has followed loan and each successive
advance has tended to bind our commercial relations more
closely and to lift her, so far as she can be lifted, into a
position of respectability and power. The mere fact, that the
strong brains of English Capitalists are thrown into the
question, is in itself an element of growth, and an element
that probably would not have existed but for the outbreak of
the Crimean war.

Let us take another case; the one the most opposed
to the probability of the view here enunciated; — that
of Eussia. Previous to the outbreak of war, Russia
had stood to this country as a great menace ; the power
wielded by the Czar had been developed with such un-
tiring energy and skill, that the subtle diplomacy of
the Muscovite was a favourite illustration amongst all
European diplomatists. This reputation for power and
ability was aided by the anomalous position at that
time maintained alike by Prussia and Austria. Their
complicity in the dismemberment of Poland bound them
by a tie, none the less real, because it was equally dis-
honorable. But connected as the German powers were, at
that time with Russia, by treaties, intermarriages and

24 THE GROWTH ^OF TRADE.

blood relationships, it seemed almost a possibility that
the words of the 1st Napoleon might be realized — that
Europe would become either Cossack or Republican: — and
taken in conjunction with the events of 1848, and the
utter and unsparing stamping out of the very embers
of the Revolution, it seemed more probable to be the
former than the latter. The results of the Crimean war
changed all this. The power of Russia was shattered and
the morale of her position destroyed. A change was
produced in her people both extensive and distinct, and
the position in which we stood after the war was marked
by the general rising of our status as a nation — not only
throughout Europe — but perceptily throughout Russia her-
self; and thus the stand point of our commercial interests
had risen, from the mere fact that we had conquered.

Beyond the immediate action of war in the development
of trade, there is that more silent and more subtle influence
which belong to the civilising agencies that we, as a nation,
are exercising upon all other nations with whom we come
in contact. Without arrogating to ourcelves any special
supremacy, there can be little doubt that at the present
time all things English have a certain repute and fashion.
To what an enormous extent this and similar influences affect
our export trade is not at first sight clearly apparent. But
let us take two or three instances and see whither they lead
us. At the present moment, throughout the whole of Europe,
as well as in India and America, English thoughts and
English habits are largely gaining ground. In Germany our
language is being taught in the great majority of the schools ;
in France the present Emperor has stamped English
idiosyncrasies on French thought, even to the bull terrier
and jockey club. At our universities the same influence is
at work, and we find there the heirs presumptive to various
thrones mingling in English life and imbibing tastes that will

THE GROWTII OF TEADE. 25

inevitably be stamped in some degree on the people whom
they are intended to govern. All these causes combine and
recombine towards one end, — that of creating a demand for
English productions.

It may and probably will be urged that this growth of
trade is due to the goodness of our manufactures. In one
sense this is true. Our manufactures would not be per-
manently sold if they were not good ; but if they were ever
so good, from the point of view which is now being urged, they
would not obtain the same sale if they were not fashionable.
The term fashionable is here used in a very open sense —
meaning, not the mere follies that are prevalent to-day and
thrown aside on the morrow ; but that largely appreciative
sense thathasa tendency to infuse itself into the very life of a
people, and which is only imbibed by them when time has
established the warranty of its goodness and soundness. We
may also refer here to the influence of the English travelling
public. Whatever else they may do, they carry our language,
our habits, and our manners throughout Europe, and by their
own wants, as well as their general influence, aid the cause
here indicated. The result is to be traced in the great silent
growth of our trade over the whole of Europe, as illustrated by
the rise of our exports through the Hanse Towns and elsewhere.

W e now pass to the consideration of the influence that the
Gold Discoveries and Emigration have had upon our Export
trade. The result of the Gold Discoveries in California and
Australia were, at the time, most marked, so far as the
power exercised on the minds of all intending emigrants.
The public mind was influenced to an extent rarely seen,
and men of all classes and conditions of life threw up
steady pursuits to follow the dream of a probable Eldorado.
The results show themselves in the returns. In 1851, the year
of the discovery of gold in Australia, the number of emigrants
who left England for Australia and New Zealand were 21,532.

26 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

1852 .--- 87,881

1853 --- - 61,401

1854 --- - 83,237

The mere fact that this mass of population was poured into a
new country would naturally produce an increased growth of
our exports. And the results are apparent in the amounts
themselves. Our exports to Australia in

1852 were - - 4,222,205

1853 - - - 14,513,700

1854 - - - 11,931,352

And the same general facts appear with regard to California.

In

1846 our Emigrants - 82,239

1847 ---- 142,154

1848 .... 188,233

And our exports during the same years were as under : —

1846 - - - 6,830,460

1847 - - - 10,974,161

1848 - - - 9,564,909

The reason why the statistics to Australia are taken for
one year later than for America, is that the great distance
between Australia and England throws the returns so many
months later than would be the case with America. The
connection between our own country and America being so
rapid and intimate, the action of any cause at once
manifests itself. With regard to California, there is some diffi-
culty in getting at the permanent influence the discovery of
gold exercised either upon emigration or our export trade, as
the returns are so made up as to blend California with the
United States. It also happened that the discovery of gold
in California was coincident with the great mass emigration
from Ireland, which immediately followed the Irish famine
in 1845 — 1846. We have therefore two difficulties before us.
The one, the imperfection of the returns ; the other, the co-

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 27

incidence of another cause of emigration. But, as the
assumed value of the discovery of gold in any particular
part of the world is based on the ground that the direct
influence of such discovery is to develope trade through
the instrumentality of a large emigration to that particular
place, any cause which happens to act simultaneously to
produce the same result, may be classed with it; as the
principle point, that the discovery of gold enables us to clear
up, is the direct and tangible influence exerted upon our
export trade through the aid of a large emigration.

With regard to the influence of emigration, it will be
quite clear, that those, who have been nurtured in our habits
of life, who have our tastes, manners, and customs, will
carry their predilictions for our special manufactures into
any new home they may found. The thoughts and feel-
ings that are moulded into our being through the plastic
life of childhood and ingrained into us through the more
enduring, if less sensitive, time of our manhood, will remain
with us, as an inalienable portion of our being through all
circumstances and in any part of the world. No educa-
tion is stronger than the education of habit ; it is with us
a second life, to be worn out only by slow decay; and
this quality links our emigrants to us, and in so doing aids
our manufacturers. The artisan, who lands at New York
or Melbourne with little money and no friends, whatever
else may have failed him, has fully tested the trustworthiness
of his clothes and his tools; and with the instinctive rever-
ence that ever clings to the known and tried, he will
greet with pleasure in a new world and amid new faces
the familiar names of English manufacturers. In one sense
we are all conservatives ; we hold to that which we have
tested and not found wanting, and that great mass wave of
population that flows ever from our shores, to be absorbed by
other lands, still clings to us by this feeling of the past. The

28 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

conditions here asserted are mere matters of reasoning. What
are the facts ? Let us take the two cases now chosen, that
of Australia and that of the United States and California,
and place in opposite columns the growth of our exports and
the mass of our emigration, year by year, so that we may
have the circumstances clearly before us.

The first thing that shows itself, in looking over these re-
turns, is the absolutely stationary character of our export
trade with Australia from 1840 to 1849, the returns in those
two years being almost identical in amount. The next point
is, that the trade showed distinct signs of retrograding up to
the year 1847, and that during that time the emigration and
exports fell off together. It is also apparent, that when
emigration again set towards Australia, our exports again
rose ; and they sprang into full force and power under the
influence of the gold discovery in 1851. The rise of our
exports in the two following years to more than five times
their previous amount will be a clear illustration of the
influence of that discovery. In 1853 — 4 the exports from
England to Australia had been largely in excess of the
demands, and the consequence was that in 1855 our exports
receded, until the natural impulse of growth again forced
them upwards. It would be tedious to point out all the
minute influences that go towards making up the sum total
of an export trade ; and also the various causes that affect
it, such as good or bad harvests, agreement or disagree-
ment between the houses of Legislature ; and yet all
these tend to elevate or depress returns. Enough will
have been done if the statistics show clearly the con-
nection between emigration and export trade ; and also the
special influence exercised on that trade by the discovery of
gold. The next case — that of California — is less simple in its
results, but it illustrates more vividly the immediate action
of such discoveries.

THE GKOWTH OF TRADE.

29

AUSTRALIA.

Year.

Emigration.

Exports.

1840

-

15,850

£2,051,625

1841

-

32,625

1,336,626

1842

-

8,534

958,952

1843

-

3,478

1,307,062

1844

-

2,229

791,994

184.5

-

830

1,244,121

1846

-

2,347

1,441,640

1847

- Irish famine -

4,949

1,644,170

1848

.

23,904

1,463,931

1849

-

32,191

2,080,364

1850

-

16,037

2,602,253

1851

Discovery of Guld

21,532

2,807,356

1852

-

87,881

4,222,20£

1853

-

61,401

14,513,700

1854

-

83,237

11,931,352

1855

-

52,309

6,278,966

1856

-

44,584

9,912,575

1857

.

61,248

11,632,524

1858

-

39,295

10,463,032

1859

-

31,013

11,229,448

1860

.

24,302

9,707,261

1861

-

23,738

10,292,771

1862

- Exhibition -

41,843

11,944,506

1863

.

53,054

12,498,534

1864

-

40,942

11,857,213

1865

-

37,283

13,339,241

1866

.

24,097

13,643,326

1867

Dead Lock at Melbourne 14,466

9,613,739

1868

.

12,809

12,071,435

80 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

The same general remarks that were made with reference
to Australia will apply also to the returns of the United States
and California. Emigration and exports are clearly and
distinctly co-related. The first great impulse in our exports
occur in 1847, the year of the discovery of gold in California
and the commencement of that great mass of emigration that
set for seven years so steadily from this country towards the
United States. It must be understood that emigration is only
considered as one cause — and a cause that will be modified
one way or the other, according as any second influence
is in favour of, or opposed to, the development of our trade.
For instance, the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861 and the
closing of all trade with the Southern States, manifested itself
by reducing our exports one-half, In this case the Civil War
acted by destroying our existing trade with the Southern
States ; and so has reduced the apparent influence of our
emigration. The converse holds good in 1866, when, under
the influence of speculative capital brought into play through
the general mania of the time, our exports reached their
highest point. WThat is intended to be asserted is, that our
export trade is due to a series of causes, of which emigration
is one ; and that these causes combine and recombine to produce
a total result. That, in order to trace those causes out clearly,
it is necessary to take them one by one and watch their in-
fluences under circumstances when they are the least disturbed.
For that purpose Australia and the United States have been
chosen under the aspect now delineated, as illustrations of the
influence of emigration, combined with the discovery of gold.

It is curious to note how the tide of emigration ebbs and
flows. Under the impulse of the panic induced by the famine
of 1845, it rose to its height in the years 1850, 1851, 1852,
and 1853, and then gradually receded, until, in 1858, it
reached its former level ; it has again bounded forward, and
promises in the next year or two to reach its highest point.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 31

UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA.

Year. Emigration. Export.

1840 - - - 40,642 - - - £5,283,020

1841 - - - 45,017 - - - 7,098,642

1842 - - - 63,852 - - - 3,528,807

1843 - - . 28,335 - - - 5,013,514

1844 - - - 43,660 - - - 7,938,079

1845 - - - 58,538 - - - 7,142,839

1846 Irish Famine - 82,239 - 6,830,460

1847 Discovery of Gold 142,154 - - - 10,974,161

in California » ' '

1848 - - - 188,233 - - - 9,564,909

1849 - - - 219,450 - - - 11,971,028

1850 - 223,078 - - - 14,891,961

1851 Exhibition - 267,357 - - - 14,362,976

1852 - - - 244,261 - - - 16,567,737

1853 - - - 230,885 - - - 23,658,427

1854 - - - 193,065 - - - 21,410,369

1855 - - - 103.414 - - - 17,318,086

1856 - - - 111,837 - - - 21,918,105

1857 Financial crisis . 126,905 - - - 18,985,939

in England ' ' '

1858 - - - 59,716 - - - 14,491,448

1859 - - - 70,303 - - - 22,553,405

1860 - - - 87,500 - - - 21,667,065

1861 outbreak of civil . 49,764 - - - 9,064,504

War » ' '

1862 - - - 58,706 - - - 14,327,870

1863 - - - 146,813 - - - 15,344,392

1864 Limited Liability . 1 47,042 - - - 16,708,505

Act.

1865 - - - 147,258 - - - 21,227,956

1866 - - - 161,000 - - - 28,499,514

1867 - - - 159,275 - - - 21,826,703

1868 - - - 155,532 - - - 24,410,184

32 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

Let us now pass to the considerations of the influences
that Exhibitions are supposed to have exercised on trade,
At the opening of the Exhibition of 1851, the whole of
the circumstances, that could produce a successful result,
were brought freely into play. Imperial pageantry, inter-
national courtesy and diplomatic suavity were all made
to aid in the development of a royal idea, and the success
of the Exhibition, simply as an Exhibition, was unequalled.
Not only as a mere show was the effort successful; its
influence on trade was also very large. For the first time
in history, nations were invited from all parts of the world
to take part in rendering homage to mere commercial
pursuits ; and for the first time it was proclaimed as a prin-
ciple, that trade was paramount, Dreams of universal peace
and universal brotherhood were largely indulged in, until
they were disturbed by the rude utterances of war.

Yet with all this, there were some results that were left
unchallenged. The Exhibition ennobled commerce : men
from various parts of the world had learned to look upon
trade, and more particularly English trade, from a point of
view they had never previously approached, and the result was
that trading relations were not only cemented but extended.
The ideas associated with our Palace of Industry were those of
royalty, wealth and elegance, and all these were aided by the
very structure of the building, as it rose in its fragile beauty
spanning the noble trees and looking out to the clear sky
beyond. To ourselves as well as to others it was a great
lesson, the influence of which has not yet died out. It
taught us not only what we could, but what we could not
do, and it placed before us by illustrations, stronger than any
language, how much inferior our art productions were to
those of our compeers : and from that teaching has emanated
our South Kensington Museum and our present demand
for Technical Education.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 33

All these things influence trade, both directly and
indirectly. In an earlier part of this chapter it was pointed
out, that the personal knowledge of buyer and seller forms
an important link in the growth of trade, and in one sense the
first Exhibition aided this. Men, who for years had known
each other by name, came to know each other as a matter of
fact, and thus built up relations that produced a mutual good.
The mere prestige of the "world's bazaar" brought men
from every quarter of the habitable world and they carried
away with them to their distant homes the memory of
English productions, that bore fruit then and has borne
fruit since. At the time, amongst the whole of our manu-
facturers it was recognised as an unchallengeable fact, that
the Exhibition had stimulated trade, that orders were
plentiful and that its success was great.

The statistics do more than bear this point out, the bound
in our exports is both clear and decisive. It will be
necessary to notice here that the direct results of the
Exhibition would not be manifest until the year after
it closed, and would most probably extend twelve
months beyond. The Exhibition did not close until the
end of the year, the orders given during the time would
be delivered partly in the year 1851 and partly in 1852
and the return orders some months later, so that the
effects would appear in the following years. The statistics
here given show very markedly the growth of our exports
at the particular epochs.

Our Exports in 1851 were £74,448,722

1852 „ 78,076,854

1853 „ 98,933,781
Showing an advance in the two years of £24,485,050

The same results are apparent in the two years after our
second Exhibition :

34 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

Cur Exports in 1862 were £123,992,264

1863 „ 146,602,342

1864 „ 160,449,053
Showing an advance in the two years of £36,456,789

In looking at these figures it must be remembered, that
the results here manifested embrace the action of other causes
besides that of the Exhibition. For instance, in 1851 the furore
of the gold fever in Australia was in full force, and there was
also flowing from our shores the great emigration that fol-
lowed the Irish Famine ; both these causes would combine to
swell the returns of 1S52, 1853. At the second Exhibition
another influence was at work, the results of which are
quite as manifest, viz. : the operations brought into play in
connection with Limited Liability. This act came into
operation in November 1803, was immediately taken up
by speculators and was in full force in 18C4. The result is
manifested in the returns of our export trade in that year,
and also in those of 18G5, 18G6. To some it may appear
dubious that the Limited Liability Act should have this
influence ; a little examination will shew the reason why.
There is no question that, at the time of the speculation
mania, companies for every conceivable purpose wTere floated
into existence, some useful, some stupid and some mere
frauds ; but, whether good, bad or indifferent ; whether they
paid dividends or not ; whether they ruined shareholders or
not, during the time of their existence they stimulated trade.
To what extent they acted may be gathered from a statement
that appeared in the Money Article of The Times, in which
it was stated that during the continuance of the mania,
companies, representing a capital of 800 millions, had either
been projected or actually brought out. A mere moiety of
the amount here named would be sufficient to explain a large
increase in speculative trading.

The companies that were brought into being ranged

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 35

from those that were absurd by their triviality to those
that propounded to their shareholders the idea of con-
structing railways and rebuilding cities. All were equally
available for the mere purposes of creating a direction
and robbing the credulous. Amongst those who dealt in
such operations it was considered of great value to give
a look of mercantile reality to the transaction ; and for
furthering such views foreign contracts, foreign railways
and foreign banks were made to float largely on the surface :
and, as a rule, the}7- had some connection, more or less real,
with our foreign trade. If a railway were projected, it
would be necessary to make some show of work ; and the
consequence was that rails, carriages, engines, tenders,
etc., &c, would be bought from our manufacturers, and would
figure in the total of our export trade. The same remarks
can be applied to a series of cases, and would furnish
an explanation of some portion of that large growth of our
export trade during the time referred to.

Let us now pass to detailed causes ; the general reasoning
that connects war and trade has already been given. We
have now to trace out the results, and see how far it has
actually operated in the growth of our exports. The various
wars, that fall within the time specified, 1340 — 1869, are the
Crimean War, the China War and the Indian Mutiny. The
New Zealand War, the Abysinian War and the Caffir War
are omitted, because the reasoning which will be true of
the larger, will be true of the smaller, and also because, as
a substantial result affecting our export trade, we can afford
to disregard the latter.

Let us take a case which will include the largest variety ;
and place most conspicuously the results of the action of
war within our grasp. For that purpose the Crimean War
has been selected ; it was the most important as well as
the longest sustained, and its influence on France, Italy,

d2

38 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

Turkey and Russia herself can be clearly traced ; the
facts in each case bearing1 out the inference now sought to
be deduced.

FRANCE.

The country which has been first taken is that of France,
for the reason that it embraces three points : the first is the
action of war, which affects the exports, from 1854 to 1857 ;
the second is the influence of the Cobden Treaty, which affects
our exports from 1860 to the present time ; and the third is
the influence of our speculative mania of 1864, 1865, and
1866. In each case, it will be found on examination, that our
exports rose very clearly and distinctly in connection with
each of these three causes.

It will be seen in looking over the figures that our exports
show little or no variation from 1840 to 1853, with one
exception, that of the year 1848, at which date they receded
to one-half their usual amount. The explanation is to be
found in the fact that the year 1848 was the year of the
outbreak of the Revolution, and, as a consequence, great
slackness of trade and a profound sense of insecurity were
general throughout France. When the first burst of its
influence had passed away, trade once more resumed its usual
conditions, and our exports stand at the ordinary amount, and
at this standard they remained until 1853. The year 1854
saw the outbreak of the Crimean War, and our association
with France in the struggle was at once manifested in our
returns, which immediately rose about half a million ; the
next year our exports were doubled, and at this height they
remained until the close of the war. The great impulse to
trade connected with our stiuggle gradually faded out,
until our exports had receded to what might be considered
their normal amount, an amount less than that which was
reached during the height of the war, but still considerably

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 37

FRANCE.

1840 ---... £2,378,149

1841 - - - - - 2,902,002

1842 ...... 3,193,939

1843 - - - - - - 2,534,898

1844 - - - - - - 2,656,259

1845 -----. 2,791,238

1846 ...... 2,715,963

1847 - - - - - 2,554,283

1848 - - Revolution - - 1,024,521

1849 - - - - - 1,951,269

1850 ...... 2,401,956

1851 - - First Exhibition - - 2,028,463

1852 ...... 2,731,286

1853 ...... 2,636,330

1854 J - - - - - - 3,175,290

1855 f - . - - 6,012,658
> Russian War

1856 ( - - - 6,432,650

1857 J - - - - - - 6,213,358

1858 ...... 4,863,131

1859 ...... 4,754,354

1860 - - Cobden Treaty - - 5,249,980

1861 ..-.-. 8,895,588

1862 - - Second Exhibition - - 9,209,367

1863 - - - - - 8,673,309

1864 - - Limited Liability - - 8,187,361

1865 - - - - - - 9,062,095

1866 ...... 11,700,140

1867 .... . 12,121,010

1868 ...... 10,633,721

398G91

38 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

in advance of what it bad been previously to tbe out-
break of tbe war itself. Tbe final results would appear to
be, tbat war developes new relations wbicb continue to act,
although witb diminished force, after the original cause is
entirely removed. The next cause tbat influenced our
exports witb France was that of the Cobden Treaty. It
came into operation in I860, and under its influence our
exports in two years made an advance of nearly four millions;
and although the full amount has not been permanently
maintained, yet tbe result is sufficiently clear to indicate tbe
influence tbat treaty has exercised upon our commerce witb
France. Tbe action of our Limited Liabilitv Act and the
general speculative mania manifested itself in our exports to
France, as well as to other countries.

It is difficult, on looking at the points here indicated and
contrasting the time they came into play with the actual
returns of our exports, not to feel that they are related as
cause and effect. It seems equally impossible, on the theory
of tbe general cause of Free Trade, to make any sensible
explanation of the phenomena tbat present themselves to our
notice. Our trade with France remained stationary for 14
years and yet, during the whole of that time, Free Trade bad
been more or less definitely in action ; our exports then doubled
themselves. We naturally ask what is the cause ? We do not
suppose tbat orders drop from the skies, or that some fairy
has created an imaginary want ; men of common sense be-
lieve, and believe very naturally, that there is a cause for
every change, even where a tangible explanation is not
forthcoming ; but when the known requirements of war are
considered and our capacity as a manufacturing country to
satisfy those very requirements, tbe rise of our exports
through the action of war seems inevitable and, as a matter
of fact, tbe orders given to this country by France for all war
materials were very large.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 39

There is one point here that ought to be borne in mind
in order that the results may be put down at their proper
value. A cause of any kind may be in operation some
months before its effects are visible, and the results will
continue, after the cause has ceased to act. Let us illus-
trate this. Orders for goods whenever given, if represent-
ing any large amount, will usually take some months to
deliver, and they will only appear in our exports when
shipped from this country. In the present instance a
portion of the goods that appear in any year's returns,
say 1855, must have been ordered in 1854, so that an
allowance of time must be made before the actual results
appear in our export returns. The same remarks will apply
with reference to the continuance of a cause even after its
apparent action has ceased; let us push the same point
further. Suppose that our manufacturers had contracted
with the French government for given quantities of supplies
— those contracts must have been made on the footintr that
the war would have to be fought out, and as its duration,
until actually settled, must have remained an uncertainty, all
contracts would be made on full war conditions ; and the
moment the war ceased, the orders then existing would take
some number of months before they were completed. The
result would therefore be, that the influence would not at
first sight be so apparent, and -would remain an influence
after the cause, that brought it into play, had entirely ceased
to operate. This actually coincides with the facts, our
exports show no great expansion in the year of the out-
break of the war, but they appear in force for 12 or 15
months after its cessation. The actual influence of war on
our export trade will be most apparent when we bear in
mind, that for 14 years our trade with France had not grown
at all, and that the year after the outbreak of the war,
our exports with France had more than doubled themselves.

40 THE GKOWTH OF TRADE.

TURKEY.

Our trade with Turkey evidences the influence of two
causes: the first, that of the Crimean War; the second, that of
our last Exhibition. With reference to the first, our exports
to Turkey do not show any growth from 1840 to 1854,
the years 3844, '45, '47, '48, '49, '50, all figure in our
exports for larger amounts than the years immediately pre-
ceding the outbreak of the war. So that, taking the fourteen
years here referred to, 1840 — 1853, we may assume that, the
differences which appear are differences arising from the
ordinary fluctuations of trade, and not those that indicate the
increase or decrease arising from fresh influences. It is
worth noticing that war was almost identical in its action
on France and Turkey. In both cases there was a mode-
rate increase in our export trade in the year of the out-
break of the Crimean War ; but in the year following
there was a remarkable expansion. In the case of Turkey
the cessation of the war produced the immediate effect of
a falling off in our exports ; but in the case of France the
same result wras not manifested for some time after, being
due to the fact that the prominent position of France neces-
sitated larger and more permanent arrangements, which,
as a consequence, required a longer period before they
were fully completed. On the outbreak of the war our
exports to Turkey rose three-quarters of a million ; the
next year they doubled themselves ; and although they
receded from that amount, they never again sunk to their
original level. When they reached their lowest point, the
effects of the Exhibition of 1862 began to be felt, and our
exports again rose and have since permanently maintained
their position.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 41

TURKEY.

1840 £1,164,386

1841 - 1,254,945

1842 1,489,826

1843 ... - - 1,729,777

1844 ...... 2,319,605

1845 2,246,855

1846 - 1,749,125

1847 2,363,442

1848 2,664,281

1849 2,373,669

1850 2,515,821

1851 1,937,011

1852 2,079,913

1853 ..---- 2,029,305

1854 - Outbreak of Crimean War - 2,758,605

1855 - - - - - - 5,639,898

1856 4,416,029

1857 3,107,401

1858 4,255,612

1859 3,750,996

1860 4,408,910

1861 2,987,800

1862 - - Exhibition Year - - 3,487,761

1863 .----- 5,714,550

1864 5,977,918

1865 - - - - - - 5,677,830

1866 - 6,346,041

1867 5,482,153

1868 6,293,782

Up to the year 1845 the returns of Turkey include

Greece, Moldavia, and Wallachia.

42 THE GROWTH OE TRADE.

ITALY.

The statistics of the Kingdom of Italy have not been
detailed out, as they are so blended with those of Austria and
the Papal States that they cannot be easily distinguished ; but,
those, who are curious on the matter, will find, on reference to
the returns, the same general principle manifesting itself as
appears in the returns of France and Turkey.

RUSSIA.

It may be here noticed that the actual exports in 1840
are about £400,000 more than they were in 1853; but as
the actual return of exports from year to year varies
from minute and often very trivial causes, it is deemed
unnecessary to take any notice whatever of any amount either
above or below an average, if it can be fairly assumed to be
a mere fluctuation, not a definite increase or decrease.

From 1845 to 1854, not only had there been no increase,
but the whole appearance of our exports indicated a steady
falling* off. The years when our exports reached their highest
were 1844 and 1845, and from those years the exports show
a gradual decrease, indicating either stagnation or retro-
gression, until the actual outbreak of the Crimean war. With
regard to the effect of war on Russia, the result will speak
for itself. Immediately on the peace our exports assumed a
higher point than they had held for some years previously to
the war, and then advanced with great rapidity for the three
following years. The force of the impetus that the war had
given to our trade then sank slowly away, until the year of
the Exhibition, 18G2, when our exports again rose, and since
then have advanced without ceasing.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 43

RUSSIA.

1840 £1,602,742

1841 ... - 1,607,175

1842 .-.--- 1,885,953

1843 ------ 1,895,519

1844 ------ 2,128,926

1845 ------ 2,153,491

1846 ------ 1,725,148

1847 - - ... 1,844,543

1848 ... . 1,925,226

1849 - .... 1,566,175

1850 - ... - 1,454,771

1851 - ... 1,289,704

1852 ------ 1,099,917

1853 - - - - - - 1,228,404

1854 - - Outbreak of War - - 54,301

1855 - - War

1856 - - Peace - - 1,595,237

1857 ------ 3,098,819

1858 - - - - - - 3,092,499

1859 ------ 4,038;696

1860 ------ 3,268,479

1861 - 3,041,448

1862 - - Exhibition - - 2,070,918

1863 ... - 2,695,276
1864 2,846,409

1865 - - - 2,923,006

1866 - - - 3,176,656

1867 - - - - - - 3,944,035

1868 - - 4,250,721

44 THE GEOWTH OF TEADE.

EGYPT.

The position that Egypt occupies is essentially different
from that of Turkey, and is one of those cases where a series
of causes combines to produce a total result. There seems to
be little difference of opinion asto the fact that the Viceroy of
Egypt has exhibited and still exhibits great energy and con-
siderable ability in his government. He has also manifested a
clear perception of the value of an intimate alliance with
England and France ; and the result is everywhere apparent in
the general internal organisation of his kingdom, as well as in
his active endeavours to develope its trade. In this attempt
he has been aided by the planning and carrying out of our
overland route to India. The mere fact, that Egypt forms
the highway between ourselves and our dependency, with its
135 millions of people, is a tangible reason why our exports
to that country should grow. Egyptian commerce has also
been largely aided by another influence — that of the out-
break of the Civil War in America. For many years Egypt,
like Brazil, had furnished our markets with a moderate
quantity of cotton ; but the entire cessation of all supplies
from the Southern States, consequent on the war, forced our
manufacturers to look to other countries for that staple of
which they were thus suddenly deprived. Egypt answered
to the call, and furnished us with considerably increased
quantities, whilst, at the same time, the value of the cotton
itself rose with great rapidity, as the figures subjoined will

show : —

Cotton. — Value per cwt.
1660 ....

1861 ....

1862 ....

1863 ....

1864 ....

1865 ....

1866 ....

£3 15

6

4 4

9

7 1

4

10 11

8

12 15

3

8 16

1

8 14

3

THE GROWTH OF TRxVDE. 45

This increase of wealth, the natural result of our existing
commercial arrangements, aided the development of our
export trade.

EGYPT.

1840 - - - - - - £79,063

1841 ------ 238,486

1842 - - - - " - - 221,003

1843 - - - - - - 246,565

1844 ------ 402,101

1845 - - - - - - 291,850

1846 - - - - - - 495,674

1847 ------ 538,308

1848 ------ 509,876

1849 ------ 638,411

1850 ------ 648,801

1851 - - - - - - 968,729

1852 ------ 955,701

1853 ------ 787,111

1854 - - Outbreak of War - - 1,253,353

1855 ------ 1,454,371

1856 ------ 1,587,682

1857 ------ 1,899,289

1858 ------ 1,985,829

1859 ------ 2,175,651

1860 ------ 2,479,737

1861 - - - - - - 2,278,848

1S62 - - Exhibition - - 2,405,982

1863 ------ 4,406,295

1864 ------ 6,051,680

1865 ------ 5,990,943

1866 ------ 7,556,185

1867 - - - - - 8,198,111

1868 ..--- 6,068,569

46 THE GROWTH OF TKADE.

CHINA.

There Lave been two Chinese wars, the one in 1840 the
other in 1860. The influence of the first war was sup-
plemented by the opening of the port of Hong Kong, and
was manifested in the fact, that our exports within two years
reached the highest point they ever attained before the outbreak
of the Indian Mutiny. The second great impulse on onr
trade with China occurs in 1859, the year when Englrnd
and France were preparing their joint expedition ; and this
rise in our imports is to be accounted for by the fact that
goods were shipped from England for the purposes of, or in
connection with, the war itself, which took place in the
middle of the next year (1860). After the war was over
the same result followed as was apparent in our trade with
France after the Crimean War ; our exports sank slowly ;
not to the level they had occupied previously to the outbreak
of the war, but lower than they had been during the time the
actual influence of war was at work. From that point they
have since rebounded and have grown continuously to the
present time.

This expansion coincides with the time when the influence
of our second Exhibition came into play, and affords one more
illustration how causes blend one with the other. The
assumption, that our Exhibitions have influenced our past
trade, appears warranted, not only by the general thought that
underlies all such gatherings, but by the mode in which our
exports to particular countries have risen at these periods.
It is worthy also to note that the influence of our first
Exhibition manifested itself on the countries near home,
whilst our second Exhibition acted upon those that were scat-
tered throughout the more distant parts of the world, such
as China, Japan, Brazil, &c.

It may be said, that the growth of our trade with China
is due to the reduction of our duties on tea. It may be wise

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 47

CHINA.

1840 - - Outbreak of War - £.324,198

1841 - 862,570

1842 - Opening of Port of Hong Kong 969,381

1843 .--.-- 1,456,180

1844 ------ 2,305,617

1845 2,394,827

1846 - - - - - - 1,791,439

1847 ------ 1,503,969

1848 ------ 1,445,959

1849 ------ 1,537,109

1850 ------ 1,574,145

1851 ------ 2,161,268

1852 - - - - - - 2,503,599

1853 ------ 1,749,597

1854 ------ 1,000.716

1855 - 1,277,944

1856 2,216,123

1857 - - Indian Mutiny - 2,449,982

1858 ------ 2,876,417

1859 4,457,373

1860 - - Second China War - 5,318,636

1861 ------ 4,848,657

1862 - - - Exhibition - - 3.137,342

1863 ------ 3,889,927

1864 ------ 4,711,478

1865 ------ 5,152,293

1866 ------ 7,477091

1867 ------ 7,468,278

1868 - - - - - - 8,498,966

These returns include our exports to LTong* Kong.

48 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

that this view of the case should be briefly inquired into. It is
curious, but none the less true, that the immediate effect of
our reduced duties, was not to create an immediately increased
demand. Our imports of tea are as follows, and the date of
reduced duties is marked with an asterisk : —

1853 - .... lbs.70,735,135

*1854 ------ 85,792,032

1855 - - - - - - 83,259,257

1856 ------ 86,200,414

1857 ------ 64,493,989

*1858 ------ 75,432,535

1859 ------ 75,077,451

1860 - - - - - - 88,946,532

1861 ------ 96,577,383

1862 ------ 114,787,361

1863 ------ 136,806,321

*1864 ------ 124,359,243

1865 ------ 121,271,219

*1866 ------ 139,610,044

1867 - - - - - - 128,026,807

It will be noticed, that in each case the year following
the reduction of the duties on tea, the imports are lower.
Any probable or reasonable explanation is difficult to give,
excepting that the demand for tea is largely dependent upon
influences broadly removed from the mere question of the
reduction of duty. The consumption of tea, as of all other
necessaries of life, is dependent upon two causes : first,
the gross increase of our population, and, second, the general
condition of the people. The causes that affect the condition
of the great mass of the people, will affect the totals of our
imports of the necessaries of life. When trade is very pros-
perous, and when, as a consequence, population increases
rapidly, our imports will rise in proportion, being stimulated
by the action of prosperity. When men are in full work and

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 49

at good wages, the question of extra duty on a pound of
tea does not produce any marked influence to stop its sale ;
but when poverty and distress fall upon them, when pauper-
ism rises rapidly, such influences affect the whole mode of
living, and definitely arrests the consumption of the neces-
saries of life. Viewed from this point, the variations in our
figures explain themselves ; looked at as a whole, the imports
of tea show a steady advance, the fluctuations up and down
being probably due to mercantile speculations and the varia-
tion of quantities held in bond. It would therefore appear,
from a review of all these circumstances, that the advance
in our exports to China must be considered as being depen-
dent upon causes altogether apart from the question of im-
position or removal of the duties upon the special produce of
that country.

The considerations that have now been advanced tend to
show how the influence of wTar has acted upon the develop-
ment of our export trade to the various countries whose
returns have been subjected to examination. It will be
well before finally closing this portion of the question, to
recognise that the consideration of the action of any cause,
such as war, is accepted, by the gieat teachers of Political
Economy, as being judged quite apart from its moral
bearings.

No man of ordinary feeling will do otherwise than depre-
cate the existence of a state of war. Devastation, misery
and rapine have and ever will follow in its train. But
the consideration of the secondary causes that flow from,
though not contemplated by war, is a question that appears
at once legitimate and wise. What reason can there be
why we should hesitate to follow out the action of those
secondary causes, whose silent but beneficial influence tends
to further the progress of that great civilizer — Trade? In
such a sense, and in such a sense only, has war been

• E

50 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

viewed in the relationship it bears to onr commerce. In
life all causes are more or less distinctly co-related, the
operation of to-day ramifies through a thousand channels,
and produces consequences on the distant future that were
never intended; thus, from despotism has sprung freedom,
and in the blood of our martyrs have been written the
articles of our faith. When viewed in this sense, the con-
sequences that flow from the action of war may be accepted
without shrinking, and may be regarded as being in harmony
with the great teachings of the past, which show us how
the wars of Imperial Rome laid the foundations for the
civilization of the world.

This digression seemed necessary to prevent miscon-
ception of the sense in which war was viewed. We will
now return to our last illustration, that of

INDIA.

Following the same course that has been adopted with
regard to the returns of other countries, we find that the
outbreak of the Mutiny produced an immediate effect upon
our exports; — they rose the same year more than one million.
In the next year they advanced more than five millions.
This increase was, on an average, maintained until the
Exhibition of 1862, when our exports again rose another
five millions; and that amount has been substantially
maintained from that time to the present. From 1840
to the outbreak of the Mutiny, a period of seventeen
years, our exports had advanced about 4^ millions.
Since that date, a period of twelve years, our exports
show a permanent advance of more than ten millions, and
this advance remains in full force, in the face of the
gigantic failures incidental to, and connected with, the Bank
of Bombay.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 51

INDIA.

1840 - - - - - £6,023,192

1841 ...... 5,595,000

1842 ...... 5,169,888

1843 - - - - - - 6,404,519

1844 ...... 7,695,666

1845 ...... 6,073,778

1846 - - - - - 6,434,456

1847 - - - - - - 5,470,105

1848 ..-.-. 5,077,247

1849 -.-... 6,803,274

1850 ...... 8,022,665

1851 ...... 7,806,596

1852 ...... 7,352,907

1853 - 7,324,147

1854 - - Russian War - - 9,127,556

1855 --.... 9,449,154

1856 ...... 10,546,190

1857 - - Indian Mutiny - - 11,666,714

1858 ------ 16,782,386

1859 --.... 19,844,920

1860 ------ 16,965,292

1861 16,411,756

1862 - - Exhibition ■ - 14,617,673

1863 - - - - - 20,002,241

1864 ------ 19,951,637

1865 --.-.. 18,260,413

1866 - - - - - - 20,009,490

1867 ---... 21,805,127
1868 21,211,343

E 2

52 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

HANSE TOWNS.

Hamburg and Bremen are the entrepots of Europe, and
the returns that appear under this heading must be regarded
as representing a portion of the general trade that is distributed
throughout the whole of the Continent. Reference has before
been made to the growth in the appreciation of English
manufactures, induced partly by our status as a nation, partly
by the goods themselves and partly by association. The influ-
ence of these causes, blended into one, would manifest itself
in the increased trade through those ports which may be
accepted as partially representing the centres of distribution
for all Europe. By a coincidence the tariff of the Hanse
Towns was reduced in the year of our first Exhibition, so
that this cause must be joined to the others. We must also
note and make allowance for one other influence, which is
continuously on the increase, viz., the development of the
railway system throughout Europe.

It has justly been said that steam is the great civilizer,
and the railway system the great revolutionizer, of the world.
Not only are barriers broken down, time economized, and coun-
tries linked together that were previously widely separated,
but the teaching that springs from such causes is ever present.
It brings before men, in phases that cannot be blotted out, the
constant growth of thought and the constant stir of enter-
prise, and, despite the difference of names, makes Europe one
great whole. The energy and force, inseparable from all railway
life, must tend to quicken the latent activities of the people.
It will be at once obvious, that the mere increase of facilities
must exercise a large influence on the various countries, by
bringing them into more perfect union, and thus enabling
commerce to be more rapidly carried on. The action of these
causes, when combined, afford a sufficient explanation of the
development of our trade through the Hanse Towns.

THE GROWTH OP TRADE.

53

HANSE TOWNS.

1840

1841

1842

1843

1844

1845

1846

1847

1848

1849

1850

1851

1852

1853

1854

1855

1856

1857

1858

1859

1860

1861

1862

1863

1864

1865

1866

1867

1868

03 ZJ

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Exhibition

Exhibition
Limited Liability

£5,408,499

5,654,033

6,202,700

6,168.038

6,151,528

6,517,796

6,326,210

6,007,366

4,669,259

5,386,246

6,755,545

6,920,078

6,872,753

7,093,314

7,413,715

8,350,228

10,134,813

9,595,962

9,031,877

9,178,399

10,364,237

9,298,463

9.740,336

10,806,092

13,418,826

15,116,658

13,555,988

17,229,251

19,320,647

54 THE GEOWTH OF TRADE.

HOLLAND.

"In the case of the Dutch Tariff, the liberal system was
introduced in 1850. Further reductions were made in the
years 1854 and 1862." Our trading with Holland had
shown no development from 1840 to 1851 ; over the whole
of these years we have slight fluctuations, but nothing more.
The years 1841, 1842, 1843, and 1846 all show larger
amounts of exports than the remainder of the years, in-
cluding that of 1851. We may therefore fairly assume that
the trade with Holland was absolutely stationary, until the
new influences of the Exhibition and the reduction of its own
tariff came into play. It seems only fair to consider these two
causes as acting in unison. For instance, the reform of the
Dutch Tariff took place in 1850, yet the next year shows
no advance ; the returns for the two years being almost
identical in amount, whilst the two years that follow the Ex-
hibition show an advance of nearly one million. The truth
seems to be, that these two causes form the real explanation.
Attention has more than once been drawn to the growth
of our export trade in connection with the Limited Liability
Act, and illustrations of its influence through the years
1864, 1865, and 1866, appear in the returns of Holland,
France, Egypt, Hanse Towns, Belgium, and United States,
and can also be traced, although less definitely, through a
large proportion of our dependencies. The influence of the
speculative mania, incidental to the years referred to, made
itself felt, not only in company gambling, but through the
more direct avenues of legitimate trading : in the one case
dying out with the mania that brought it into existence, and,
in the other case, founding new channels of commerce that
have still retained their force.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 55

HOLLAND.

1840 ------ £3,416,190

1841 ------ 3,610,877

1842 ------ 3,573,362

1843 ------ 3,564,720

1844 - - ... 3,131,970

1845 ------ 3,439,035

1846 ------ 3,576,469

1847 ------ 3,017,423

1848 ------ 2,823,258

1849 - - - - - - 3,499,937

1850 - - - - - - 3,542,632

1851 - - Exhibition - - 3,542,673

1852 ------ 4,109,976

1853 ------ 4,452,955

1854 4,573,034

1855 ------ 4,558,210

1856 ------ 5,728,253

1857 - - - - - - 6,384,394

1858 ------ 5,473,312

1859 ------ 5,375,468

1860 ------ 6,114,862

1861 ------ 6.434,919

1862 - - Exhibition - 6,046,242

1863 - - - - - - 6,324,696

1864 - - Limited Liability 6,884,937

1865 --..-. 8,137,753

1866 ------ 8,999,713

1867 - - - - - - 9,422,742

1868 ------ 10,392,253

56 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

BELGIUM.

1840 ------ £880,286

1841 ------ 1,066.040

1842 - - - - - - 1,999,490

1843 ------ 984,650

1844 1,471,251

1845 1,479,058

1846 ------ 1,158,034

1847 ------ 1,059,456

1848 ------ 823,968

1849 ------ 1,457,584

1850 ------ 1,136,237

1851 ------ 984,501

1852 - - - - 1,076,499

1853 - - - - - 1,371,817

1854 - - - - 1,406,932

1855 --- - - 1,707,693

1856 - - - . . 1,689,975

1857 ------ 1,727,204

1858 ------ 1,815,257

1859 --- - 1,479,270

1860 ------ 1,610,144

1861 ----- 1,925,852

1862 - - Exhibition - 1,828,622

1863 ------ 2,107,332

1864 - - Limited Liability - - 2,301,291

1865 ------ 2,935,833

1866 ------ 2,861,665

1867 ------ 2,816,481

1868 ------ 3,149,709

The returns of Belgium show no positive increase until
the Exhibition year, 18G2, and from that date they have
continuously advanced.

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 57

Having now so far analyzed the returns of the various
countries in connection with which our exports have most
distinctly grown, and which, when taken as a total, may be
said to represent the gross amount of our increased returns,
it becomes necessary to take the gross yearly totals, and see
how far the increase — the increase manifested by them — coin-
cides with the existence of the causes thus laid down.

It will be necessary to refer to the fact that from 1840 to
1849 there is no marked growth of trade. There is large
variation, but no defined increase. But it may be as well to
notice, that a small increase year by year may be allowed as
the mere result of the growth of population all over the
world. For the same reasons that we are necessitated, by
the increase of our population, to import continuously increas-
ing quantities of corn to feed our people, so will the centres of
our commerce increase in their demands, through the increase
of the populations by which they are surrounded and which
they supply. This may be taken as a cause that is always in
operation ; and which will, in all probability, act with greater
force year by year. But such an influence will not produce
sudden bounds of trade, similar to those which our returns con-
tinually show ; so that, whilst admitting the cause, as being at
once distinct and permanent, it does not form one of that
group which has reared our past commercial success.

Passing from the consideration of this influence, we have
those special causes that manifest themselves, and which have
been already referred to, in examining the returns of individual
countries. But we have yet to consider how far their value
is manifested when the totals of our commerce are passed in
review. In looking over our exports, certain indications mani"
fest themselves very clearly. Our trade from 1840 shows no
marked advance, until the influence of the gold discoveries of
Australia and California, combined with the mass emigration
of Ireland, produced their effect. The next influence that

58 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

TOTALS OF OUK EXPORTS,— 1840 to 1868.

1840 - - - - - - £51,406,430

1841 ------ 51,634,623

1842 ------ 47,381,023

1843 - - - - - - 52,279,709

1844 ------ 58,584,292

1845 ------ 60,111,082

1846 ------ 57,786,876

1847 - Discovery of Gold in California 58,842,377

1848 - - Mass Emigration - 52,849,445

1849 - - - - - - 63,596,025

1850 ------ 71,367,885

1851 - - First Exhibition - 74,448,722

1852 .-.---- 78,076,854

1853 ------ 98,933,781

1854 - - Outbreak of Crimean War - 97,184,726

1855 ------ 95,688,085

1856 - - Peace with Russia - 115,826,948

1857 - - Indian Mutiny - 122,066,107

1858 ------ 116,608,756

1859 ------ 130,411,529

1860 ------ 135,891,227

1861 ------ 125,102,814

1862 - - Second Exhibition - 123,992,264

1863 ------ 146,602,342

1864 - - Limited Liability Act - 160,449,053

1865 ------ 165,835,725

1866 - - Financial Panic - 188,917,536

1867 ------ 180,961,923

1868 - - - - - - 179,463,644

THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 59

came into play was that of our Great Exhibition, assisted also
by the reduction of tariffs in different parts of Europe. These
were again followed by the outbreak of the Crimean
war, and, on the incoming of peace, our export trade
again rose through the influences established in France,
Italy, Turkey, and Russia by the war itself. Our Indian
mutiny once more taxed our energies, and the greatest
dependency in the world passed from under the sway of a
private company, to be ruled as an integral portion of our
Great Empire. The steps deemed necessary to retain our
grasp on India, in case of a second revolt, found its expres-
sion in the development of the railway system, and the larger
infusion of English life into the army — these causes again
combined to raise our export trade. With but little variation,
our trade remained stationary for six years ; and when it
again bounded, the cause was apparent in the Exhibition of
1862, aided, as it was, a year or two later by the gigantic
creation of fictitious capital ; and, since that bubble has col-
lapsed, our trade has once more ceased to grow.

No reference has been made to that energy of character,
which has everywhere developed our commerce, and which
has made us the traders of the world ; such reference was
not necessary, as the question before us was, What were
the special causes that had produced the rapid growth of our
export trade ? For the same reason no reference has been
made to the capacity for trading that each nation may
possess. The power to purchase must be assumed as an
existing fact before any trade can be carried on ; and so far as
the government of states develops or retards the internal life
of a country, it was foreign to the purpose now in view to
investigate the question : but some illustrations bearing upon
this matter are pointed out in consideration of the future
influences of India.

We have now arrived at a point where it will be well to

60 THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

look over the principles enumerated, and see how far they are
trustworthy. The conditions connected with trade have been
traced through three phases. First, on the broad principle
that must underlie all trade — the simple principle of know-
ledge ; knowledge of goods themselves, knowledge of the
people who sell them, and the gradual advance of civilization
and its associate, the railway system. In the second place
the individual action of special causes such as War, Exhibi-
tions, Emigration, and Capital have been traced through
those countries' returns, which more or less clearly represent
the bulk of our increased trade. And in the third place, the
totals of our exports have been viewed as totals ; to see how
far they correspond with the principles laid down. The
answers in each case appear to be the same : and the results
seem to be connected as cause and effect.

GENERAL STATISTICAL SUMMARY.

1840 1868

France - £2,378,149 - £12,633,721

Italy - - ■ 1,560,338 - 4,980,210

Egypt - - - 79,063 - 6,068,569

Turkey - 1,164,386 - 8,137,686

Eussia - - 1,602,742 - - 4,260,721

China - - - 524,198 - - 8,498,966

India - - - 6,023,192 - - 21,211,343

Australia - - 2,051,625 - - 12,071,435

United States - 5,238,020 - - 21,410,184

Holland - - - 3,416,190 - 10,392,253

Hanse Town - 5,408,499 - 19,320,647

Belgium - - 880,286 - - 3,149,769

Japan ... — - 1,106,069

68 other Countries and

Possessions - 21,034,742 - - 46,222,071

Total Exports - £51,406,430 £179,463,644

THE GROWTH OF TRADE.

61

The total of our export returns appear under about 82
headings, of that number the above 14 have been selected as
representing not only the most important, but the most
characteristic, of our customers ; the remaining 68, which are
enumerated in the Board of Trade returns, are included here
under the general heading, " Other Countries and Possessions."
The effect of this arrangement is largely to increase the special
amount under the heading, although it still remains relatively
small ; the variation it shows between 1840 and 1868 having
been equalled by the amount of variation exhibited by the
United States at different years during the same period. In
order that this may appear on the surface, the figures are
subjoined to show the relative differences.

Amount of Exports to
68 Countries and Possessions.

1868
1840

46,222,071
21,034,742

Difference- 25.187,329

Amount of Exports to
the United States of .America.

1866 -

1842 -

Difference -

28,499,514
3,528,407

24,971,107

62

CHAPTER III.

OUR FUTURE TRADE.

It has been wisely said, that the value we derive from the
past is the teaching it yields for the future ; and therefore
the sketch of the causes that have developed our trade will
be of value only if they enable us to decipher the probabilities
that surround our trade in the future. The questions that
everywhere surround us, and press with an increasing force,
as day follows day and week follows week, is, Whither are
we drifting ? How comes it that the natural reaction has not
yet come ? In the past all other panics righted themselves
rapidly, why not this one? Such are the questions that
are everywhere uttered, until they become wearisome by
their very sameness. The assumption that runs throughout
them all, is, that there is a natural and inevitable power in
trade to right itself. The warnings that speak through our
commercial statistics from 1815 to 1840 are either unknown
or ignored. The terrible trials incidental to long continued
commercial stagnation, which made themselves felt in the
past, are forgotten ; and the only grave warnings that come
to the surface are those daily increasing bankruptcies, which
tell of slackened trade and increased competition. It will be
necessary, for our purpose, that we keep close to our ques-
tion, and watch how the causes of the Growth of Trade, when
carefully traced out, can help us to elucidate the probable
conditions of our future.

If the reasoning advanced in the last chapter be correct,
the rapid growth of our past trade may be reduced to the
following causes : —

OUR FUTURE TRADE. 63

First. — The growth of population and civilization all over
the world.

Second. — The influence of emigration in connection with
the discoveries of gold.

Third. — International Exhibitions.

Fourth. — The action of war as developing new relations
with other countries.

Fifth. — The opening of new ports of trade, and the
reduction of import duties.

Sixth. — The influence of capital.

We have now to consider which of the causes will con-
tinue in force without assistance ; which of them we can
stimulate; and which of them are likely to cease. It
will also be necessary to bring into view the causes that
operate against trade generally and our own trade in par-
ticular ; such, for instance, as high tariffs and increased
competition ; and, when these are all fairly before us, we
shall have a clear view of the question we have to decide.

With reference to the first cause, it may be fairly assumed
that it will continue. The inhabitants of the world are ever on
the increase and, as our commerce is world-wide, it must, from
this one cause, be ever on the growth. We may also add to
this, as an element inalienable from it, the gradual advance
of civilization and education, both of which act as stimulants
to trade, through the influence of increased knowledge and
increased requirements ; necessarily including in these the
continuous development of the railway system, and its adjunct,
the telegraph.

With reference to emigration, the whole tendency of events
is to foster its increase. Not only has the desire to emigrate
become very widely spread, but it is rapidly growing, and
will be still further quickened by the gradual increase of
labour in proportion to work. The totals of our emigration
returns show a decrease since 1863, arising, no doubt, from

64 OUR FUTURE TRADE.

the increased demand for labour at home, that characterised
the years 1864, 1865, and 1866 ; but, as that demand has
ceased, and as we have no probability of its resuscitation,
the mere pressure, that will be exercised by the agency of
want, will necessarily develope emigration. The capacity that
this power possesses to aid our future trade is more specially
detailed in the chapter headed " Emigration."

With reference to future Exhibitions, it may be said,
that the more clearly the results are appreciated, the greater
will be the care used to bring them into action, and to
make them worthy of the purpose for which they were
originally designed. That they have produced a large exten-
sion of our trade in the past seems beyond doubt, and that
they possess an equal capacity for its development in the
future, seems equalty clear; the one question being, in what
shape and under what circumstances they shall be called
into action. With proper limitations there seems every
reason to believe that we may anticipate from this cause
a powerful influence in the development of our future trade.
It will be obvious that the success of any Exhibition is more
or less dependent on the mode in which it is carried through;
if either from want of care, want of interest, or want of
judgment, it be allowed to sink to the level of a private
speculation, the power it would exercise over other countries
would be proportionably reduced ; if, on the other hand, the
might of our national position be brought to bear, the success
that would follow may be assumed as accomplished.

With regard to wars, they may be considered as almost
things of the past : the power they have exercised has
been specified, but their action in the future must be con-
sidered as very dubious : first, because the influence they
possessed of causing nations to know one another is being
rapidly superseded by other and more quiet means ; and,
secondly, because the whole weight of our influence and

OUR FUTURE TRADE. 65

position is opposed to their recurrence ; we having proclaimed
to the world that our policy is a policy of peace.

With respect to the probability of the opening of new
free ports, it must bo remembered that the condition of
Japan was entirely exceptional, and the circumstances
that surrounded it will not probably occur again. The
nearest approach to it is that of China ; but the modifica-
tions introduced into our relations with that country since
the war of 1860, leads to the belief that a more intimate
commercial union may be anticipated between that country
and our own. This tendency will be aided by the great emi-
gration that has already made itself felt in Australia, and
which is being: organised for the Southern States of America.
The results inseparable from a knowledge will follow, and
those who return to China will carry with them associations
and ideas that will fructify in the common interests of
us all. Apart from the question of China, the pretension
of isolation, so far as a country is concerned, can scarcely be
said to exist. "We cannot, therefore, anticipate any aid in
our commercial future similar to that given to us, by Japan
and the opening of its ports.

"With respect to the reduction of tariffs, the tendency in
Europe is evidently to bargaining, something after the
manner of the Cobden Treaty, rather than the enunciation
of Free Trade doctrines such as we have made. Whilst
referring to this question, it may be considered whether
it is not very questionable policy for us, in the present
state of our labour market, to largely reduce our own.
There is a time for everything ; and the time for modi-
fying our import duties does not appear to be peculiarly
that of the present. Amongst a large section of our artisan
class, there is a feeling that the reduction of any import duty
exposes some particular trade to an increased competition —
an opinion that no one who has watched the action of the

F

66 OUR FUTURE TRADE.

Cobden Treaty can for one moment doubt to be correct. It
therefore becomes a grave question, whether it be wise, in
the face of our present manufacturing" difficulties, to make
any change. The total results of the Cobden Treaty, when
considered by its action on our trading population, are not
of such a character as to justify us in proceeding further
without very careful scrutiny.

We have yet to weigh one point which will very
largely affect our export trade : and that is, the present
course of policy pursued by the United States of America.
The question is, whether it is probable that the United
States will reduce or change their tariff? Our imports at
the present moment are so heavily taxed as to natu-
rally check our trade ; and, considering the peculiar ties
of our relationship, there is probably no one cause that
would so inimediately increase our export trade as the
removal of import duties from our goods entering America,
It is well, therefore, to see what probability exists that the
duties will be reduced or repealed.

It has been asserted, that the conditions that surround the
customs of America are analagous to those that surrounded
our own customs immediately preceding the change in our
tariff ; it is therefore considered probable that the duties will
immediately be reduced. In the next place it is asserted,
that " Leaguers in New York and Boston are actively
"disseminating the principles of Free Trade; and it cannot
" be doubted by any, one who is acquainted with the facts,
"that, as soon as the task of re-construction is completed,
" Free Trade will be the great question in the United
" States." This may be so, and the result may be in
accordance with the principles, but the reasoning does not
appear to be satisfactory.

The assumption, that there is any tangible ground of
comparison between the existing conditions of England and

OUR FUTURE TRADE. 67

those of the United States, is so far removed from the
ordinary laws of common sense, that it seems scarcely to
require answering, England is a country so over populated,
that she is absolutely dependent upon foreign trade to find
food for a large portion of her people. America is a
country where a great expanse of territory is still virgin
soil, and which would, under proper cultivation, feed an
almost indefinite population. England was driven to the
revision of her tariff to find work and food for her people.
America, embracing as she does every condition of climate,
and possessing every necessary mineral, could shut herself
off from the entire world and still grow as a great nation.
What point of comparison can there be, when the funda-
mental conditions of existence are so utterly removed the
one from the other?

But there are also other questions, quite apart from this
point of view, which it will be wise for us to keep in mind.
The policy laid down by the United States is, that her tariff
affords the readiest means of collecting a revenue ; and, look-
ing at the enormous expanse of territory and the obvious
difficulties of collection incidental to remote districts, there
would appear some reasons for the maintenance of such an
idea. In this view they will also be supported by the whole
of their manufacturers, whose interests are identical with its
continuance ; and, considering the influence that manu-
facturers have exercised on this side of the water, it does not
appear probable that any change will take place in opposition
to their wishes.

In the Times of Nov. 23, 1869, is the following, apparently
from one who, whilst a Free Trader, yet recognises the difficul-
ties by which the question is surrounded. " Occasionally the
" Free Traders invade Philadelphia, the citadel of Protection,
" and although they have not yet mustered strength enough
" to warrant a public meeting, they placard the blank walls

f2

68 OUR FUTURE TRADE.

" and fences with huge posters, disseminating* the heretical
" doctrines. The Protectionists on their side are not idle.
" Their journals defend the principle, and on the heels of the
" Detroit Free Trade meeting, they held another in that
" city, advocating* Protection, challenging* their opponents to
" a discussion, and forming a Protectionist Society. They
" have the advantage of wealth, numbers, and the control

" of the dominant party Both sides, therefore,

"are organising their forces for the struggle that is to begin
" in the next session of Congress, but which will never be
" settled until the re-admission of all the Southern members
" and the strengthening of the West by the increase of its
" members consequent upon the new apportionment, folio w-
" ing the census of 1870, give the Free Traders the prepon-
" derance of numbers and a partial victory. The first
" congressional battle will be fought upon the question
" whether the American shipbuilders are to be relieved from
" the depression on their trade caused by the high tariff
" of imported shipbuilding materials. In this no doubt the
" Protectionists will ultimately be beaten ; but the interests
" of the different sections of the country are so diverse that it
" is scarcely possible for the Free Traders to gain a complete
" victory. The tariffs will never be any higher, but it will
" be some time before any material reduction can be secured,
" the present Congress being thoroughly Protectionist.

" Bills increasing the tariff, according to intelligence
"from "Washington, are prepared there for introduction into
" the House as soon as the session begins, although their suc-
" cessful passage, after the fate attending similar measures at
" the last two sessions would seem almost hopeless. The wool
" interest, the cotton manufacturing interest, the iron and
" steel interest are all making loud lamentations about ruined
" trade and successful foreign competition, in order to raise
" a popular sentiment in favour of a further screwing up of

OUR FUTURE TRADE. C9

*' the duties on these articles." ... In the same letter,
when referring to the opinions held by the President, he adds
the following: "Mr. Kelly says that the President showed
" that he had been studying the subject, and spoke particu-
" larly against abolishing the duty on bituminous coal, as
" such a step would take from the revenue a large amount
"annually. . . . Mr. Kelly then went on to explain
" his views on the tariff, recommending as the best plan to
" put all articles of raw materials which America does not
" produce on the free list, and to reduce the duties on articles
" manufactured from raw mateiials which do not come into
"competition with American productions; while the duties
" should be advanced on all imported articles which can be
" produced and manufactured in this country. With these
"ideas Mr. Kelly says the President expressed concurrence,
" and said he thought such a plan would simplify the tariff,
" and afford the kind of protection needed to foster and
" encourage home industry."

It is also well that we should have before our minds the
opinions enunciated by Adam Smith, who, when speaking of
Protection, says ("Wealth of Isations," Vol. II., pages
176 — 177) : — " By restraining, either by high duties, or by
" absolute prohibitions, the importation of such goods from
" foreign countries as can be produced at home, the monopoly
" of the home market is more or less secured to the domestic
"industry employed in producing them. Thus the prohibition
" of importing either live cattle or salt provisions from foreign
" countries secures to the graziers of Great Britain the
" monopoly of the home-market for butchers'-meat. The high
" duties upon the importation of corn, which in times of
" moderate plenty amount to a prohibition, give a like advan-
" tage to the growers of that commodity. The prohibition of
" the importation of foreign woollens is equally favourable to
" the woollen manufacturers. The silk manufacture, though

70 OUR FUTURE TRADE.

" altogether employed upon foreign materials, has lately
" obtained the same advantage. The linen manufacture has '
" not yet obtained it, but is making great strides towards it.
" Many other sorts of manufactures have, in the same manner,
" obtained in Great Britain, either altogether, or very nearly
" a monopoly amongst their countrymen. The variety of
" goods of which the importation into Great Britian is pro-
" hibited, either absolutely, or under certain circumstances,
" greatly exceeds what can easily be suspected by those who
" who are not well acquainted with the laws of the customs.
" That this monopoly of the home -market frequently gives
" great encouragement to that particular species of industry
" which enjoys it, and frequently turns towards that employ-
"ment a greater share of both the labour and stock of the
" society than would otherwise have gone to it, cannot be
" doubted. But whether it tends either to increase the general
" industry of the society, or to give it the most advantageous
" direction, is not, perhaps, altogether so evident."

And although Adam Smith goes on to show that, as a
broad principle, protection is unwise, yet, for the immediate
purpose for which protection is now used by the Americans,
the authority of the great founder of political economy can
be adduced in support of the present tariff.

Beyond both these reasons, there is one that will
weigh both long and heavily with the leading minds in
the United States, viz. : — the large revenue yielded by the
present tariff and power it thus affords the Government to
reduce the war debt. There is no doubt that the most
influential citizens of America, ardently desire to pay off
their debt, and they will cling with great tenacity to any
system, short of direct taxation, that will aid them to carry
such a desire into effect. To many minds it is a question
whether direct taxation could permanently maintain itself
in America; and whilst any system exists that is at once

OUR FUTURE TRADE. 71

productive and less onerous, there seems little reason to
believe that a change will take place. The same remarks
will apply, with modifications, to the great majority of
the States of Europe, for throughout the whole of the
issue now raised, this broad question runs — if the import
duties now levied by the various countries of Europe were
removed, by what means could a revenue be produced
at once so certain and so little felt ? and if so — why
should they reduce their import duties? It is very neces-
sary that we should endeavour to change the habits of
thought in which most of us live, so as to take a
fair view of the subject from a foreign stand point.
We are so habituated to regard all these matters from
the influence they have upon ourselves, as to ignore
the fact, that the conditions, which are pressing neces-
sities to us, may be a matter of small importance to
other countries. "With us the question is, how can our
commerce be made to grow ? How can we improve trade ?
How can we make other countries do that, which, whilst
it is good, for them, is also specially important to us?
We say this, so much and so often, that there is ever a
tendency on our part to become one-sided in our mode of
viewing these questions. It would be difficult to show that
the changes of tariffs suggested, by many political econo-
mists are compatible with a ready equalisation of tax-
ation in those places. Whilst this is the case, and we
have keen discussions in our own land, as to the value of
free trade itself, it is unreasonable to expect that foreign
countries will adopt the policy which is still so vigor-
ously challenged, where its teachings have been the most
unflinchingly carried out ; we must therefore come to the
conclusion, that any modification of existing tariffs, suffi-
ciently large to stimulate trade vigorously, must either be
abandoned altogether or looked upon as very improbable.

72 OUR FUTURE TRADE.

With reference to any large action of Capital in the imme-
diate future, it would appear that this also must be regarded
as dubious. The rude shock to which all confidence has been
subjected, combined with the glaring effrontery and utterly
reckless swindling, developed in connection with our recent
monetary collapse, is both too strong and too painful a lesson
to be readily forgotten. Capitalists will prefer looking at
their money to losing it ; and they will either invest it in
securities that are unequivocally sound, or allow their
money to lie idle. It remains yet to be seen how long
such a course is possble, but it is so at present, and will in
all probability remain so for some time to come.

We have now passed over the various causes that have
developed our trade in the past ; and have found that
amongst them those appear probable to aid us in the
future, are : — the natural growth of population ; the in-
fluence of emigration ; and the general rise of civilization
all over the world. All these causes are g-eneral causes,
the operations of which, whilst very definite, will yet be
very moderate, and we may therefore look forward, in the
future under existing circumstances, to a very regular,
but very gradual increase of our trade : — an increase which,
at the largest calculation, could not be presumed to be in any
sense-, equal to the necessities of our increasing population.
We have yet to consider the counteracting influence of com-
petition.

We have hitherto concentrated our attention on the
causes that will develope our trade; but, to arrive at an
accurate estimate, it will be necessary to view closely one
cause, that threatens to operate with great force in the
contrary direction, and that force is Competition. To say,
that the greater portion of Europe is entering into direct
competition with our leading manufacturers, is to assert that
which is generally accepted as an established fact ; but, in

OUR FUTURE TRADE. 73

order to place the question in a clearer light, it -will be better
for us to take one or two distinct trades and follow them
through the various influences that are at present acting- upon
them; for that purpose, and because they are our leading-
manufactures, Cotton and Iron have been selected.

So far as the mere quantities go, our cotton trade shews
no material change, what we were doing in 1866 we are
doing to-day ; we hold our position, and no more. But
the signs of increased competition are everywhere around
us. It is asserted that Belgium cotton goods are being sold
in the Manchester markets. It is undoubted that the cotton
goods manufactured by Germany, France and Switzerland,
are also imported into our country and that the imports are on
the increase.

The figures being 1866 - 1,130,931

1867 - 1,185,187

1868 - 1,285,766

The increase as shown by these figures is not large, but it
would appear to be definite. The totals here given would
be of small moment except as indicating the capacity of
foreign countries to compete successfully with ourselves.
Beyond these, we have to remember that America is at the
present time entering fairly into the race. It was lately
announced that in one state alone, that of Tennessee, twenty-
three mills had been erected , and it will be seen from the
returns that the amount of cotton reserved for America's
own manufacturers is continuously on the increase. Be-
yond this, the whole condition of American society would
appear to point to a great growth of their cotton trade. The
influence of her import duties will necessarily stimulate her
home trade, and the natural advantages of climate, soil and
position, all point the same way. If we add to these, the
development of her railway system, the infusion of Northern
blood into the Southern States, the immigration of the Chinese

71 OUR FUTURE TRADE.

coolies, who are at once steady, patient, and tractable, we
have combined a series of causes that may at anytime pro-
duce a formidable and permanent rivalry. It is difficult to
see why America should not eventually lead in the cotton
trade ; cotton is not only naturalized to her soil, but that
which is produced is unquestionably the best in the world.
She has machines equal or superior to our own, and the
skill that has made our manufactures famous are leaving*
our shores by multitudes to find a new home there. If,
then, she has material, skill and machinery, what are the
reasons that should prevent her out-rivalling ourselves ?

The circumstances connected with European competition
are also significant. In Dr. Ure's well known work on cotton
manufactures, reference is made to various Continental states,
the particulars of which are here given.

A comparative view, given by Messrs. Rossingh and
Wumray, of the importance of cotton manufactures in
several different countries two or three years since, estimated
the number of spindles working :

In Switzerland, at - - - 1,250,000

In Austria, at 1,500,000

In France, at - - 0. '250,000

In England, at - - 21,000,000

These numbers, hcwever, are scarcely an index of the state of
the cotton works in those countries at the present date.

Since 1S45, Swirzerland is stated officially to have quite
superseded, in the markets of Germany and Austria, the
yams of Great Britain. In 1S30, that Republic had in
operation 400,000 spindles; in 1840, 750,000; in 1850,
050,000; and in 1860 about 1/250,000, the number having
more than trebled in thirty years,

Before the breaking out of the late war, the manufacture
of cotton in the Russian Empire was progressing with extra-

OUR FUTURE TRADE. 75

ordinary activity. The number of Bpindles exceeded 350,000,
producing- annually upwards of 10,800,000 lb. of cotton yarn.
The barter trade with the Chinese at Kiachta stimulates this
branch of manufacutres in Russia, as the article of cotton
velvets constitutes the leading staple of exchange at that
point for the teas and other merchandise of China. Informer
years this article was supplied almost exclusively by Great
Britain, but the Chinese prefer the Eussian manufacture, and
hence the steady progress of that branch of industry.

The cotton manufacture is rapidly increasing- in Russia.
It is scarcely more than thirty years since the first spinning*
mill was erected, and now it has 350,000 spindles in full
activity, which produce more than 300,000 poods of yarn
(10,800,000 lbs.).

The amount of cotton imported into Belgium in 185.5,
was of the value of 13,500,000 francs, and in 1856 there was
an increased import of about 2,500,000 kilogrammes over the
preceding years. The export of mixed cotton and woollen
and cotton and linen goods has tripled in the last ten years,
and Belgium now exports to, and contends successfully in the
markets of North and South America with the great manu-
facturing countries.

The illustrations here given all point one way ; and with
the teachings derived at once from America, France, Belgium,
Germany, and Switzerland, they seem to bear out the force of
that reasoning which asserts that the principle of competition
in our cotton manufactures is rapidly growing, and it will
require all our skill, care, and attention to hold our own in
the future. "We are suffering from a too rapid success ; the
very grandeur of the fortunes realised in Manchester and else-
where has drawn the attention of manufacturers all over the
world to the philosopher's stone of cotton-spinning ; and the
result is, not only have we over-built ourselves, but other
nations have given distinct evidences of their intention of con-

76 OUR FUTURE TRADE.

testing the race with us in our own markets, and there seems
but little reason to doubt that in the future the competition in
our cotton manufacture will largely increase.

The same, in a more modified sense, may be said of iron.
In the latter case we have certain natural advantages which
will be difficult to nullify : the quantity and quality of our iron
ore, its contiguity to coal, the enormous organisation, and the
large skill of our manufacturers themselves, all aid in main-
taining this branch of our trade ; but there are indications that
the competition will even in this be very keen. Of late years
Belgium, France and Prussia have entered largely into com-
petition with us, in contracts for foreign orders ; and the cost
of shipment and transit in the case of all bulk iron goods
materially aids their efforts. Not only is this true with reference
to our foreign trade, but the same results have been produced
in our home market ; rails, engines, and machinery having
been supplied by Prussian, French, and Belgian firms to our
English consumers. In a note to Mr. Thornton's work " On
Labour" are some remarks which are germain to the present
consideration of this question and which are here subjoined.

" There is some reason to apprehend that the limits within
"which unionist exactions ought in prudence to be restrained,
" have already been in some cases overstepped. The importa-
" tion into Hull of doors and window-frames from Stockholm,
" the order from Russia of 40,000 tons of iron obtained in
" 1866 by a Belgian firm in opposition to English competition,
"the contract with the Dutch Government for rails wrested in
"the same year by a Liege house from English ironmasters,
" the fact of Belgian rails having been laid down on the East
" Gloucestershire Railway, and of there being French locomo-
" tives running on the Great Eastern line — these, after every
" abatement of their significance that can be suggested, are
" still ugly symptoms, which our unionist workers in wood
"and iron cannot wisely disregard. I have seen it some-

OUR FUTURE TRADE. 77

" where stated (by Messrs. Creed and Williams, if I recollect
"rightly) that the order for 40,000 tons of iron, alluded to
" above, involved wages to the amount of £500,000."

We have now before us the general mass of facts that
affect the probabilities of our future cotton and iron trade.
It would have been easy to have extended the illustrations
further, but these trades have been selected as representing not
only a large proportion of ours export, but also as having been
characteristically our own ; they may, therefore, be considered
more or less typical, and the reasoning that is true of these
will be true also of others. The whole result appears to
point decisively to the conclusion, that, under existing con-
ditions, we have no right to anticipate a further large develop-
ment of our future trade.

78
CHAPTEE IV.

POPULATION AND FOOD.

In the last chapter an endeavour was made to trace out the
probabilities bearing upon the growth of our future trade.
It now becomes necessary that we should follow out the con-
ditions that surround the question of Population and Food,
as it is not possible to form a clear conception of the difficulties
with which we have to deal, unless the facts connected with
this portion of the subject are brought fairly before us-.

At different times the effect, that excessive population
may have upon the well-being of society, has awakened
keen and animated discussion, notably so in the case of
Malthus and those who follow the same class of thought ;
but the fundamental error, which appears to underlie
all such discussions, is the attempt to elevate into an
abstract theory that which is essentially a practical matter
of fact. Throughout the whole of their argument, more
or less definitely, the assumption runs, — that the world
is already peopled ; — that our knowledge of nature is com-
plete ; — and that the capacity of production through science
is exhausted. Yet if there be any points absolutely clear they
are, — that the world is not peopled; — that our knowledge is
not complete ; — and that science is not exhausted. It would,
therefore, appear unwise to predict the future conditions of
the world or to set limits to its capacity for human life. The
mathematical formula that asserts the progresssve rate of
population, but denies the same force to our food, altogether
ignores the broad fact that life is as indefinitely expansive in
the corn plant as in man, and that the law of progressive

POPULATION AND FOOD. 79

increase that governs the one governs also the other. To
meet this by pointing out the practical difficulties that
surround the indefinite development of food immediately
changes the whole question to a mere matter of every day
life ; and we no longer discuss the abstract problem, but
the practical conditions by which we are surrounded.

So far as the question refers to the immediate present,
the world is not half peopled. The vast tracts of land
in Asia, Africa, Australia and America that have yet to be
be brought under the influence ot modern cultivation are
so enormous as to remove the whole question into the remote
future, or into the changeful arena of metaphysical specu-
lation. It may take long ages before the world is fully
peopled, even under existing influences, and according to
our present ideas ; but to venture to limit either the power
of science or the changes that may be evolved in that vast
future is to assume a position that no ordinary reasoning
can warrant ; to attempt still further to deal with facts,
circumstances and conditions, of which we can have no pos-
sible data, appears to be a mere waste of time, whilst
practical difficulties remain around us. One illustration
bearing upon the possibilities that surround the whole
question may here be given, as showing how facts crop
up, and how utterly wasteful all speculation must be, on
a ground so shifting as that of human food. In Stuart
Mill's " Political Economy " we have the following : —

"There is one contingency connected with freedom of
" importation, which may yet produce temporary effects greater
" than were ever contemplated either by the bitterest enemies
" or the most ardent adherents of free-trade in food. Maize,
" or Indian corn, is a product capable of being supplied in
"quantity sufficient to feed the whole country, at a cost, allow-
"ing for difference of nutritive quality, cheaper even than the
" potato. If maize should ever substitute itself for wheat as

80 POPULATION AND FOOD.

" the staple food of the poor, the productive powers of labour
" in obtaining food would be so enormously increased, and the
" expense of maintaining a family so diminished, that it would
"require perhaps some generations for population, even if it
" started forward at an American pace, to overtake this great
"accession to the facilities of its support."

But although the abstract question of population and food
may be regarded as an intellectual gymnasium, yet from
time to time cases arise in various parts of the world, when,
through the force of circumstances, population becomes more
dense than the land is capable of supporting, and when the
practical question forces itself on our notice, and demands a
solution. Such has been the case in Ireland, and such is the
case in England to-day. In Ireland, we all know the result.
We know how the people clung to the land, with a pas-
sionate intensity that poverty only increased ; how, in spite
of all warnings, the population grew and grew, sinking
lower step by step, until the barest existence, sullenly eked
out, was the utmost that could be hoped for. Denser and
denser became the population, miserable and yet more
miserable became existence, until at last they stood ever
on the verge of famine. Under such circumstances the future
was not difficult to foresee ; the time was sure to come
when starvation would set in, when, by the mere force of
numbers, life would crush life out. It came at last : the
potato blight fell upon the Irish crops, and the people died
by thousands. An eye-witness thus describes it (Trench's
" Realities of Irish Life ") :—

" The crop of all crops, on which they depended for food,
"had suddenly melted away, and no adequate arrangements
" had been made to meet this calamity, — the extent of which
" was so sudden and so terrible that no one had appreciated
" it in time — and thus thousands perished almost without an
" effort to save themselves.

POPULATION AND FOOD. 81

" Public relief works were soon set on foot by the Govern-
" ment. Presentment sessions were held, relief committees
"organised, and the roads were tortured and cut up ; hills
" were lowered, and hollows filled, and wages were paid for
" half or quarter work — but still the people died. Soup
"kitchens and 'stirabout houses' were resorted to. Free
" trade was partially adopted. Indian meal poured into
" Ireland ; individual exertions and charity abounded to an
" enormous extent — but still the people died. Many of the
" highest and noblest in the land, both men and women, lost
" their lives, or contracted diseases from which they never
" afterwards recovered, in their endeavours to stay this fearful
" calamity — but still the people died. We did what we could
"at Cardtown, but though the distress there was far less
" than in most other places, yet our efforts seemed a mere
"drop of oil let fall upon the ocean of misery around us —
"and still the people died!"

How clear the warnings had been, is testified by " Wade's
History of the Industrial Orders," published in 1842, in
which he says : — " The potato diet of the Irish is a principal
" reason that famines are so frequent and dreadful among
" them. The national subsistence depends on a single root,
" and if the crop of that fails, there is no other substitute to
" which they can resort. A wheat-fed population may, in the
" event of scarcity, obtain supplies of corn from other coun-
" tries ; but a potato-fed population, with wages to correspond,
" could not purchase the aid of foreigners, and if potatoes
" could be obtained, they are too bulky a commodity to be
" imported on an emergency. How different the state of a
" people, when bread, and meat, and beer, form the chief food
" of the labourer ! Here, there is scope for retrenchment in a
" period of scarcity. From wheat, the worldng-man may
" temporarily resort to cheaper food — to barley, oats, rice, and
" vegetables. He has room to fall ; but he who is habitually

G

82 POPULATION AND FOOD.

kept on the cheapest food, is without a substitute when
deprived of it. Labourers so placed are absolutely cut off
from every resource. You may take from au Englishman,
but you cannot take from an Irishman — no more than front
a man already naked. The latter is already in the lowest
deep, and he can sink no lower ; his wages being regulated
by potatoes, the staple article of his subsistence, will not
buy him wheat, or barley, or oats ; and whenever, therefore,
the supply of potatoes fails, he has no escape from absolute
famine — unless he help himself, as the Irish do in dearths,
to nettles, sea-weed, and sour sorrel, the last of which was
found in the stomach of one poor creature who perished of
hunger. "Whatever has been the cause, the consequences
of the number of labourers outgrowing the demand for them,
have been deplorable. All inquiries respecting Ireland
concur in representing the number of the people as exces-
sive, and their condition as wretched in the extreme. Their
miserable cabins are utterly unprovided with anything that
can be called furniture ; in many families there are no such
things as bedclothes ; the children, in the extensive districts
of Minister and the other provinces, have not a single rag
to cover their nakedness ; and whenever the potato-crop
becomes even in a slight degree deficient, the scourge of
famine and disease is felt in every part of the country. The
competition for employment and the competition for land
have rendered both wages and profits little more than
nominal, and both peasant and farmer are engaged in a
constant struggle for the bare necessaries of life, without
ever tasting its comforts."
The condition here depicted was that which existed

previous to the outbreak of the dread famine of 1846.

Since these days a great change has crept over the land ;

the Ireland of to-day is not the Ireland of thirty years ago,

for, despite political discontent and social criminality, despite

POPULATION AND FOOD. 83

religious differences and secret organizations, her whole
position is probably higher than it had ever before reached.
This fact is testified by the investments in savings' banks, the
increase in the value of farming stock, and in the generally
progressive character in the value of land itself, the last the
most decisive test of advancement. These great changes
have been produced by the exodus of her people, which has
diminished the population by one-third, and in short, reduced
it to that number which the land can feed. The tale tells
itself in the comparison of the population returns in 1845
and 1868.

The year 1845 the numbers were 8,295,061
1868 „ 5,532,342

the smaller number now being fed by the same means
and from the same land as the larger number were in
1845. If emigration should still further continue, the result
will be, that the state of Ireland will still further improve ;
but even under existing circumstances it has now only to
produce food for two where it had to produce it for
three; a problem simple enough for all of us to under-
stand.

The condition produced in Ireland from over population
has been chosen as an illustration of a general principle,
because it was one near home, and one also with which
we are all acquainted. The case was one where the people
were fed from the land, and from the land alone ; manu-
factures and commerce, as we understand them, had no place
in Irish life. But, with some differences, we can press this
teaching still more closely home ; for our country also is
over populated. England, more emphatically even than
Ireland, cannot feed her own people ; but the condition with
us has been changed by the fact that, by our commerce, we
have made ourselves a part of the entire world, through the
creation of an export trade. It was the one channel open to

g 2

84 POPULATION AND FOOD.

us, and we availed ourselves of it. What seed time and
harvest are to other countries, that our export trade is to us.
It represents the fruition and garnering up of the stores by
which one-half of us are fed. It represents also that portion
of our harvest which has grown to meet the wants and supply
the food for an ever-increasing population. When it slackens
or ceases to grow, as at the present time, the warnings of
destitution and discontent become everywhere manifested,
because the people increase whilst their work does not. If
in the open race our export trade permanently ceased to
grow, the results that fell upon Ireland would also fall upon
ourselves, with this difference — our "Saxon thrift and fore-
sight would prevent the full force of the calamity, and we
should struggle through our difficulties, and find a home
elsewhere. But how absolutely our export trade stands to
us in the position here indicated will be best appreciated by
following out the facts that can be shown to have existed in
the past, and by our having before us what England and
Wales can do towards the food of the people.

It has been said that Ave cannot feed our people by the
produce of our own land, and this condition has grown upon
us very rapidly. Less than a century ago, we not only fed our
entire population, but exported food to other lands ; since that
date, although our country has been brought more largely
under cultivation, and farming has risen to the position of
a quasi scientific pursuit, and, as a consequence, the amount
of food produced has been enormously increased ; yet the
fact still remains the same — we cannot feed our own people.
How gradually, how stealthily, but how inevitably this has
been so, statistics will most readily teach us ; and they teach
it in a manner that admits of neither equivocation nor doubt.
In order that the case may be simple and complete, the growth
of population is placed side by side with our imports and
exports of corn.

POPULATION AND FOOD. 85

Imports. Exports. Population.

Qrs. Qrs.

1700—1709 - - 1,047,026 - 6,186,815

1710—1719 - - 1,045,949 - 6,252,427

1720—1729 - - 1,044,960 - 6,217,861

1730—1739 - 2,767,130 - 6,168,099

1740—1749 - - 2,995,591 - 6,244,533

1750—1759 - - 3,127,164 - 6,528,193

1760—1769 - 1,384,661 6,936,970

1770—1779 - 431,575 - - 7,363,64o

1780—1789 - 233,502 - 7,914,703

1790—1799 - 3,216,095 - - 8,724,213

1800—1809 - 5,747,528 - ■ - 9,513,111

1810—1819 - 6,550,466 - - 11,004,612

1820—1829 - 8,146,679 - - 12,903,059

1830—1839 - 15,082,607 - - 14,724,063

During- a considerable portion of the term here taken we
were carrying on a large trade in corn, so that the usual
returns of our imports and exports do not exhibit at a glance
the actual state of the case ; but, in order that the subject
may be simplified, the imports and exports are deducted
from one another, and the net result is here given. Each
return represents the totals of every successive ten years.

It will be seen on looking at these figures that from the
time that our population (England and Wales) exceeded
seven millions we began to import corn, although the
amount of the importation is too small for some time, to
indicate more than the possible variations incidental to
good or bad harvests ; but, no sooner does our population
exceed eight millions, than each successive increase of popu-
lation is met by increased importations of corn. So clear
and definite is this, that it may fairly be said that, under
the then existing mode of life in England, and farmed
as our land was then farmed, we could feed about that
number. Since that time the yield incidental to the in-

86

POPULATION AND FOOD.

creased and improved cultivation has largely augmented, so
that the actual amount of food producible is probably equal
to the requirements of eleven millions of our people under
the existing conditions of life.

But in order that this may be quite clear, it will be wise
to take the actual amount of land under cultivation for the
production of corn, and compare with it the amount of corn
produced, as testified by the amount of home grown corn
sold at the different towns of the United Kingdom, and shown
by the Government returns. To prevent any misunderstand-
ing, it will be well that the whole of the area of the kingdom,
and the purposes to which it is appropriated should be placed
clearly before us. For that purpose we can refer to the
Government Agricultural Keturns, which are here subjoined,
as also some remarks bearing indirectly upon the question.

Years.

England.

Wales.

Total Population

Total Aeea (in Statute Acres)

Abstract of Acreage : —
Under all Kinds of Crops, Bare j
Fallow, and Grass - \

„ Corn Crops - - - j
„ Green Crops - - ]

„ Bare Fallow - - j

„ Grass : —

Clover, &c., under (
Rotation - - (

Permanent Pasture, \
not broken up in /
Rotation (exclusive >
of Heath or Moun- (
tain Land - - J

1868

20,451,233

1,198,144

-

32,590,397

4,734,486

1867
1868

1867
1868

1867
1868

1867
1868

1867
1868

1867
1868

22,932,356

23,038,781

7,399,347
7,499,218

2,691.734
2,585,019

750,210
799,739

2,478,117
2,070,638

9,545,675
9,703,884

2,415,139
2,503,646

521,404

547,873

138,387
128,299

86,257
83,720

300,756
328,232

1,368,329
1,415,327

POPULATION AND FOOD. 87

" An increased interest may be taken in returns re-
" lating* to the agriculture of the country if the annual
" addition to the total number of consumers of food in
" Great Britain be considered. In round numbers, about
" 240,000 persons are annually added to the resident
" population in Great Britain. The additional wheat sup-
" ply required for that number at an average of six
" bushels per head, amounts to nearly 180,000 quarters,
" which, at an average English yield of 28 bushels per
" acre, represents the produce of upwards of 50,000 acres,
" and of a much larger acreage at a lower rate of pro-
" duction."

The statements here made are no doubt true, so far
as the yield of the acre is concerned in certain very
favoured localities, such as the fen portions of Lincoln-
shire ; but it must be remembered that both in the
Northern and Southern counties of England the cultiva-
tion would not produce a yield in any sense approaching
the amount here named. Taking the average, and look-
ing at all the circumstances, it may be doubted whether
more than a quarter and a half, or some slight fraction
beyond, could be assumed as being generally correct, a
fact readily understood when the imperfect cultivation,
bad harvests, and poor land are taken into consideration.
This opinion is borne out by the returns of wheat, oats
and barley of home growth, of which the quantities as
sold during ten years are here given. It may be ne-
cessary to point out, that the returns of the amount of
corn sold, are fuller 1840 — 1849 than they are at later
dates, and the comparison as to acreage under culti-
vation has been obliged to be taken as late as 18G7, as
earlier reliable returns do not exist; and even those now
taken are exceedingly imperfect, but it is probable that they
are sufficiently accurate for the purposes now sought for.

88 POPULATION AND FOOD.

Acreage in 1867 under cultivation for Corn was 7,399,347

1840 Qrs. of Home Grown Corn sold 8,156,855

1841 - Do. - 8,345,106

1842 - Do. - 8,869,950

1843 - Do. 10,289,722

1844 - Do. - 10,280,444

1845 - Do. 11,135,681

1846 - Do. - 10,867,809

1847 Do. 7,639,081

1848 - Do. 8,824,446

1849 - Do. - 7,404,884
Average yield, 9,182,297 Quarters

It will thus appear that the average of acres under culti-
vation may be assumed to be at least seven millions, whilst
the average produce sold does not much exceed nine millions
of quarters ; if we allow a large portion as being retained
for home use, so as to bring the total produce up to ten
millions five hundred thousand quarters, the result will be
that which has been already stated — viz., a yield of one and
a half quarters to the acre, or a capacity to feed about eleven
millions of people.

It will be necessary to note that the standard of living

is on an average much higher at present than it was a

century ago, and we must, therefore, recognise that some

proportion of our improvements in agriculture has been

absorbed by that cause. But making all such allowances,

it may be said that we can feed about the number stated

above ; and this estimate is still further borne out by the

food we import, and which is equal to the requirements of

the other half of our population — the total number being

21,042,577.

The returns of our imports of corn for the last three

years are here subjoined, and when they are reduced into

detail they yield about ljlbs of bread to each individual of a

POPULATION AND FOOD. 89

population of more than ten millions, and when the vary-
ing* conditions of life are kept in mind, such as extreme
youth, extreme age, sickness, debility, destitution, poverty,
jails, workhouses and hospitals, &c, such quantities per head
would appear to be a full allowance.

3 866. 1867. 1868.

cwts. cwls. cwts.

Wheat - - 23,308,615 34,888,369 32,894,073

Wheat meal - 4,972,280 3,592,919 3,098,022

28,280,895 38,481,368 35,992,095

In addition to these imports of wheat and wheat meal, the
whole of the quantities returned under the headings, Peas,
Beans, Barley, Oats, Indian Corn, &c, &c., hare been
intentionally omitted, although they appear in the returns
as corn food. It may be observed that several kinds are
largely used for human food ; such as oats for oatmeal,
barley for groats, peas for many kinds of cooked food, and
Indian corn for a variety of purposes, but the figures de-
fining what portion is used for brewing, what for distilling,
what for human food or what for animal food, are not given
in detail and probably do not exist, so that a precise judg-
ment cannot be formed, although the broad facts are clear and
distinct ; and they point out that the imports of food are
larger per head than the quantity which has been taken in
the calculations above.

If these estimates be correct, the result that follows is,
that, since the close of the last century, the bulk increase of
our population has been fed through the assistance afforded
us by the increase of our export trade, and however great
may have been our apparent successes in connection there-
with, they have all been necessitated by the demand for
food. With us it was not a question whether our export
trade should grow in a greater or lesser degree ; our position

90 POPULATION AND FOOD.

was this, that, if it failed to grow, we must either emigrate or
starve. What efforts have heen made and what results have
followed will be best testified by a comparison between the
amount of our export trade at the present time and at that
earlier date when we could feed ourselves : —

1770, £10,013,803 1863, £179,463,644

Or, in other words, the amount of our exports are eighteen
times as great now as they were then. At the present time
the mere variation of the returns from year to year is larger
than the total of our exports at that earlier epoch. But
at that time our commerce represented the exchange of our
surplus productions, and the fancies that sprang from
accumulated wealth ; to-day our commerce represents the
necessities of life, and the means by which our people are
fed.

In order to follow this out, it will be necessary that we
should have before us the actual relation existing between
the growth of our export trade and population, and this
will be best exhibited by the following table. The year
1840 has been taken as the starting point, as it was from
that date the previous comparisons in connection with our
export trade were made. The returns are taken at intervals
of five years.

Exports. Population.

1840 - - 51,406,430 - - 15,730,813

1845 - - 60,111,082 - - 16,739,136

1850 - - 71,367,885 - - 17,773,324

1855 - - 95,688,085 - - 18,829,000

1860 - - 135,891,227 - - 19,902,713

1865 - - 165,835,725 - - 20,990,946

But the relation that our export trade bears to the people
is, not the relation to the population as a whole, but to
that portion which may be described as our surplus popu-
lation, being that portion over and beyond what we can

POPULATION AND FOOD. 91

feed by the produce of our own land. Assuming the
number we can feed to be eleven millions, the actual con-
dition of our export trade with reference to population will

then be represented as follows : —

Exports. Surplus Population.

1840 - - 51,406,430 - - 4,730,813

1845 - - 60,111,082 - - 5,739,136

1850 - - 71,367,885 - - 6,773,324

1855 - - 95,688,085 - - 7,829,000

1860 - - 135,891,227 - - 8,902,713

1865 - - 165,835,725 - - 9,990,946

It will be seen that our later returns show a relatively
large increase ; this is partly explained by the general
increase of wages, and partly also by the improvements
in machinery, which would swell the total amount of the
returns, without increasing the demand for labour. The
rise in price of the raw material — such, for instance, as
cotton — is another cause why our trade might be larger in
amount and not larger in reality. "With these allowances
and explanations the gross increase of our returns keeps pace
with the increase of our surplus population.

Viewed in the light here indicated, our present condition
would appear to be the natural sequence derivable from
known facts. If in 1866 when we were at the height of our
commercial prosperity, our population was not only equal to
all demands that were made upon it for the purpose of
producing the requisite amount of manufactured goods, but
if at that time, we had a large mass of able-bodied pauperism
lying absolutely idle, it was sufficiently clear that labour
was then in excess of all demands. Since that date our
trade has receded and is not to-day equal in amount to what
it was then, and yet our population has grown to the extent
of six or seven hundred thousand people. The results that
follow appear to be inevitable. If we have more people

92 POPULATION AND FOOD.

to feed and less means of feeding them, it will be quite
obvious, why we have the destitution, misery, and pauperism
that now surround us, and why, under existing* circum-
stances, it is so continuously on the advance. It would
appear to be equally inevitable, that so long as our popu-
lation continues to increase and our export trade does not
grow in proportion, so surely will the misery that is now so
great, deepen in intensity.

It would ha^e been easy to extend these facts, but
the desire has been to place the relation that population
bears to food in a clear light, and then allow it to tell its
own tale. Through all classes of figures, through all
classes of facts, through all classes of life, its teachings
may be found. It speaks to us through the Kegistrar
General's Eeturns, as day by day we see those figures
mount up ; it speaks to us through that cry of sorrow and
want that may be heard throughout the land ; and it speaks
to us through that ever widening field of human sympathy,
that toils to alleviate misery, but toils utterly in vain. The
stream of poverty that is diminished to-day swells into
mendicity to-morrow, and threatens to overwhelm us by
pauperism the day after; and still the cries increase and
the struggle deepens. Above all there rises the never
ceasing question : — How is the difficulty to be met, and how
are the people to find both work and food?

93

CHAPTER V.

LABOUR.

In the last chapter an endeavour was made to trace out
the points bearing upon the question of Population and
Food ; hut Labour, Pauperism, and Emigration, are so linked
and entwined with it, that the reasoning which relates to the
one shades off imperceptibly into the other. Press any one
of these subjects vigorously, and the others will spring to the
surface ; track them all home, and they will be found bound
to the same centre, they are the radiating lines of the
same general cause. In the present chapter it is proposed
to follow the question of Labour so far as its influences
can be shown to affect our present circumstances.

At the outset it will be well to state, that there is no inten-
tion to discuss the many abstract questions that are con-
nected with the subject; such as, the probable future of
labour, the value of machinery to human progress, the
relationship it bears to co-operation, and so forth. All
these questions are exceedingly valuable ; but the point
aimed at here is the practical solution of existing difficulties,
for the grandest reach of abstract thought is of little use
unless it blends its teachings with the necessities of every
day life.

The question now before us is, "What are the circumstances,
at present in force, that tend to affect the demand for labour,
and whither do they lead in the future ? With this end
in view, it will be necessary to trace out the causes that
influence our agricultural pursuits, our home and foreign

94 - LABOUR.

trade, as well as keeping* in view the effect that machinery
now has, and probably will have, upon them all.

The whole condition of agricultural labour reduces itself
into the simple question, of the amount of land under cul-
tivation, and the amount of labour that is required to
cultivate it, according to our present standard. It is of
course possible to conceive a state of things in which
agriculture may be carried to a much higher develop-
ment than it is at present, but we must remember that
the practical question is, at what point can agriculture be
made to pay, and it is idle to expect it will be carried
beyond. Under the pressure for food that has existed now
for nearly a century, all the more available and valuable
lands have been appropriated ; and although it may be
anticipated, that in consequence of the vigorous demands
which will probably be made upon the Government, some
portions of the waste lands of the kingdom will be brought
under cultivation, yet such an effect will be too slow and
too small to materially affect the present question. We may
therefore assume that so far as consumption of labour is
concerned the demand in connection with agricultural re-
quirements is amply supplied at the present time.

But there are new causes now rising into existence which
will tend to make the existing supply of labour in agricul-
tural pursuits more than equal to all requirements ; and one
prominent cause is the introduction of machinery. Within
the last twenty years steam ploughing, steam thrashing,
steam hoeing, and steam drilling, have passed from the
domain of speculation into that of practice, and the result
is, and will necessarily be, a gradual diminution in the
demand for that manual labour, which had been previously
employed in doing the work.

It is very often assumed that the introduction of steam
into any industry in reality creates labour. In certain trades

LABOUR. 95

this is true ; for instance, when the introduction of steam-
power so cheapens an article that the demand for it is
enormously increased ; or in the case of a newspaper, where
the question of rapid production is the very element of its
existence, and, as such, an adequate supply can only be pro-
duced By th aide of steam. Under such circumstances the
introduction of steam machinery creates a demand for labour
instead of reducing it. But it is impossible to apply the same
reasoning to agricultural pursuits ; a plough, whether drawn
by horses or driven by steam, will only plough the land, and
the element of time, which makes steam the necessity in a
newspaper, does not exist with reference to land. If the land
is not ploughed to-day it can be ploughed to-morrow ; but the
newspaper that is not printed to-day is not printed at all.
Steam thus becomes a necessity in the one case, but not in the
other. If therefore steam is used in agriculture, it is used
primarily because it does work both cheaper and better. We
may therefore naturally anticipate that as the value of
steam in agricultural operations becomes better appreciated,
it will be more extensively used, and, as a consequence, the
demand for labour will be further lessened.

The general result here indicated is borne out by the
population returns, for it is found that the actual numbers
employed in our agricultural pursuits are less now than
they were formerly, and this has taken place notwithstanding
the influence of the Enclosure Act, which has already added
504,391 acres to the general area under cultivation since
1845, This diminution in the demand for labour in our
agricultural districts is proved by our population returns.
In 1851 the number employed was 2,011,447 ; in 1861
the number employed was 1,924,110 ; showing a diminution
of 87,337.

Another reason may also be given. The introduction of
railways has had the tendency to draw people from the

96 LABOUR.

country into the large towns, and thus reduce the labour
seeking employment in the more rural parts. Still one
further reason may be added, the marked tendency to large
instead of small holdings of land, the effect of which is to
economise the expenditure of labour ; but, whatever may be
the exact causes, the result is clear. Our farming to-day,
although over a larger area and more carefully attended to,
is carried out with less manual labour than was previously
required. And it seems difficult to conceive any circum-
stances that will permanently stay the increasing tendency
to the reduction of labour in connection with our agricultural
pursuits, It would therefore appear probable that we must
anticipate a diminution in the demand for labour so far
as agriculture is concerned. Let us now pass to the con-
sideration of the conditions that surround our home require-
ments.

It is impossible to avoid seeing that another portion of
our home requirements is dependent upon the condition of
our export trade. When our export trade is good, when
orders are large, and when as a sequence manufacturers are
prosperous, the whole condition of the country improves,
and labour is better paid. But the opposite condition is
also true ; when trade is stagnant, manufacturers cease to be
busy, and depression settles down upon our home trade.
This is our condition to-day ; and it appears probable,
for the reasons which have already been given, that it will be
still worse in the future. AVe may therefore accept as
a broad proposition, that the growth and development of
our export trade is a large and permanent cause affecting
the condition of our home trade, either for prosperity or
adversity.

Entirely beyond this portion of the question, there are
several reasons which must be considered before we can
cume to any reliable conclusion ; first among these must be

LABOUR. 97

the recognition that during the last thirty or forty years
we have passed through a series of circumstances that have
made large demands for labour, but which cannot, under
the ordinary conditions of life, again occur. During thai
period we have founded, constructed, and developed thb
entire of our railway system, and we have done this at an
enormous cost of time and money. Short connecting lines
here and there, a new station at one place, or a new junction
at another, will be continuously occurring; but the system, as
a system, is built and founded, and will not, therefore, require
the amount of labour in the future that has been required
for its construction in the past.

These facts will be more clearly developed if we bring
definitely before our mind the amount of capital invested in
our railway system, and picture to ourselves the quantity
of labour that has been required to bring it to its present
position. In 186(3 the amount invested was £481,872,184,
of which sum more than 200 millions had been expended
since 18^3. We niay readily conceive what a large influence
the expenditure of this capital has had upon the whole
labour market of the country, for we must remember that a
greater portion of this money was employed in paying for
labour, — labour of constructon, labour for engines, rails,
carriages, &c, &c, and although in the future a certain
amount will still be required to effect the changes inci-
dental to all large operations, and a further amount must be
allowed for wear and tear, yet the greater proportion of
all such labour will be required no more.

The same general remarks will be found applicable to
many of the changes that have taken place in London. A
simple enumeration of some of the works which have been
carried out within the last few years will best illustrate
this ; a list of some portion of such works is here sub-
joined : —

98 LABOUR.

Main Drainage Works,

Thames Embankment,

Soutk-Eastern Junctions and Stations,

London, Chatham, and Dover Stations,

Midland Do. (King's Cross),

Metropolitan Railway,

Westminster Bridge,

Hammersmith Bridge,

Blackfriars Bridge,

Holborn Viaduct,

City Improvements, &c, &c.
All these works may be regarded as permanent works,
not requiring renewal for some centuries ; and yet these
works have, by a series of causes, been condensed into
ten or twelve years, absorbing during their construction a
very large amount of labour, and liberating the same quan-
tity of labour on their completion. If works of equal mag-
nitude and of a similar character do not require to be con-
structed in the future, how is the labour to find employment?
"We may press the question still further home by remem-
bering that the enormous expansion of our past commerce has
called forth an equal development of factories, workshops,
and machinery. So much has this been the case that
the constructive capacity of our country has grown until
it has reached a level equal to its greatest demands. The
full force of this will appear when we remember that the
existing conditions of our factories are at least equal to an
export trade of 200 millions per annum, and our present
trade is 20 millions less than that amount.

We are prone to ignore or forget the fact that the work-
shops of the country do not require continuously rebuilding.
We have built in the past, because— with few exceptions
— our commerce has grown continuously in the past, and
we needed more mills and more workshops to produce the

LABOUR. 99

goods for our ever increasing trade ; but when that com-
merce ceases to expand the demand for new buildings and
new machinery must cease also.

The conditions that surround the great bulk of the people
will also make themselves felt one way or the other. If
trade be prosperous, the general status of the people
rises, and this influence spreads by bringing into play
dormant capital through the increased demand for improved
modes and circumstances of living. This result was evidenced
in our time of prosperity from 1851 — 1861 by the more than
proportionate increase of houses that were built in comparison
with the increase of population. The detailed statistics are
given at page 91, " General Eeport of Census, 1861." But
when circumstances change, when the pressure of want falls
upon the people, the demand for new houses ceases, and
this cessation in the demand for building enacts fresh want
by the mass of labour which is thus thrown out of em-
ployment.

We have yet to consider another power whose in-
fluence is not only permanent, but is rapidly gaining ground,
in the sway it is exercising over labour — that power
is steam machinery. Notice has already been taken of
the influence it is exercising upon agricultural labour
in England, but the reasons that have been thus urged
apply with still greater force to manufactures. At the
present moment, as well as in the past, the whole weight
and force of the best inventive brain of the country is,
and has been, directed to the production of machinery
that will economise labour ; the qualities of rapidity and
certainty of production being in another form mere economy
of labour. To what an extent this force of invention acts
may be judged of by the fact, that in cotton machinery
alone, from 1,200 to 1,500 patents have been taken out
for improvements. Every conceivable modification has been

h2

100 LABOUR.

worked out, many that are utterly useless have been tried,
but, as a final result, our cotton machinery is almost self-
acting-. Nothing' can be more beautiful, more delicate, more
finished, or more perfect; but, as a final result, there is
an enormous economy of labour.

The same general principle is found to run through all
manufactures. Machinery and processes for the economisa-
tion of labour are everywhere adopted. At the present time,
under the existing system of intense competition, an inven-
tion that successfully realises the specified conditions, creates
a large fortune to the holder of the patent : the consequence
is, that the whole sweep of thought relating to manu-
factures is devoted to the production of improvements.
One case may be selected that will illustrate this. A
few years ago it was announced that iron could be
converted into fine quality of steel by the simple pro-
cess of casting. This assertion, which was at first ridi-
culed, has since become an accepted truth and is now
known as the " Bessemer process," and some of the
facts connected with it are thus stated in Koscoe's
"Spectrum Analysis:" — "I may mention in connection
with these different carbon spectra, the application of spec-
" tram analysis to the important branch of steel manufacture,
" which has been introduced and is well known under the
" name of the Bessemer process. In this process five tons
" of cast iron are in twenty minutes converted into cast steel.
" Steel differs from iron in containing less carbon, and by
" the Bessemer process the carbon is actually burnt out of
" the molten white-hot cast iron by a blast of atmospheric
"air." It will be obvious that the mere result of this in-
vention is, to make steel available for purposes usually
requiring iron; such, for instance, as our lines of rails,
&c, &c. : and as the wearing power of steel is very largely
in excess of iron, the effect is to reduce the demand for

i<

LABOUR. 101

labour in this branch of industry to the difference existing
between the two materials.

But the illustration here given might be multiplied in-
definitely. Inventions exist for sawing and polishing stones,
making doors and sashes, moulding bricks, etc., &c, and,
in fact, there are in all large branches of manufacturing in-
dustry, inventions of some kind or the other for the economy
of labour, and this tendency is ever on the increase. One
more illustration is here added, which wTill tell its own
tale : — " Pall Mall Gazette, June 4, 1869. — A labour dispute
" of considerable magnitude threatens the East Worcester-
" shire district of the black country, the principal seat of the
" wrought nail trade. In the neighbourhood of Bromsgrove
" about 2,000 nailers are already on strike, and the dis-
" content is so great in the villages around Dudley and
" Stourbridge that it is feared the workpeople in those parts
" of the district will be induced to join the movement. Mass
" meetings are being held in Bromsgrove, at which the half-
" starved but resolute nailers express their firm determination
" to hold out. The wrought nail trade — on which some
" 25,000 persons in this district depend for subsistence — has
" been revolutionized by the introduction of machinery, and
" in many departments the wages of the handicraftsmen have
" been reduced to the lowest ebb."

Some few facts have now been given and it may be well,
before leaving the subject, briefly to examine the results lure
indicated. It may be asserted that the whole force and value
of machinery rest upon the economy it effects in labour.
All railways, all spinning machines, all paper mills, &c,
are based upon this one idea ; and as the force of thought
connected with manufactures is continuously directed to-
wards this end, and as competition increases, individual
men are induced to make still more vigorous efforts to
succeed in the race of life, and the result is that new

102 LABOUR.

ideas and new inventions spring into existence, and, as a
consequence, the demand for labour is still further lessened.

In the past the tendency to reduce employment by the
introduction of machinery has been held in check, by the
enormous development of our export trade. The mere fact
that we now export 130 millions per annum beyond what
we exported in 1840, will explain how it was that our
increased population found employment, whilst our im-
proved machinery largely reduced the demand for labour,
for the labour, then liberated, became rapidly absorbed
by the demands incidental to the growth of other branches
of industry. This explains our condition in the past, but it
altogether fails to explain how the requirements of our
future are to be satisfied, except by a rapid and con-
tinuous expansion of our export trade. As our labour
market stands to-day, our position is this, we have to find
employment, not only for our increasing population, but
also for those workmen who are thrown out of work by
the reduction in the demand for labour, the result of
improved machinery.

Men seem afraid to admit this truth ; they appear to
shrink from the acknowledgement that the introduction of
machinery lessens the demand for labour, yet it will be idle
to blind ourselves to the fact that machinery, as a broad
principle, does, to a great extent, supersede labour; and if it
failed to do this the machinery would be worthless. Such a
recognition is quite compatible with the definite acknowledg-
ment that machinery is not only valuable but absolutely
indispensable ; it produces evil results only when we allow,
as we have allowed to-day, the other conditions of life to
overlap one another. The slightest investigation would show
that even as England is placed, it would be utterly impossible
that the great bulk of the people could either be clothed,
fed, or house 1, as well as they now are, but for the extensive

LABOUR. 103

use of machinery; yet this very recognition is embraced in
the assertion that machinery lessens the demand for labour,
not only as a temporary influence, but as a permanent
result.

We have now briefly travelled over the points that affect
labour through the existing means being more than equal
to our requirements, and the consequent certainty that the
skill which was required to bnild railways, bridges, work-
shops, &c, will not in the future be required to the same
extent as in the immediate past. We have also traced out
how the whole tendency of machinery is to lessen the exist-
ing demand for labour, and to lessen it both rapidly and de-
finitely. We have now to examine one more influence that
acti upon our labour market before we are in a position
to form a sound judgment, and that is the relationship of
the labour market of Europe to ourselves. We all accept
the statement that ease and rapidity of communication have
a direct tendency to equalise existing conditions ; and this is
true of labour as of all else. The various strikes, riots,
&c, &c, both at home and abroad, induced by the intro-
duction of foreign workmen into our own land, or from the
introduction of our own workmen into foreign lands, will
be an illustration of the effect of this influence. We have
therefore briefly to consider, is it probable that the labour
market of the Continent can absorb any of our surplus
labour, or is the tendency the other way ?

To this it may be answered that the labour market of
Europe is already full to overflowing. At the outset we
are met by the pregnant fact, that Germany, Switzerland,
Belgium, and France are keenly competing with us, in the
various markets of the world ; a valid proof that in all these
countries, labour is in excess of its demands. Still more
conspicuous are the facts that in Germany emigration to the
United States, and in Switzerland migration over the whole

104 LABOUR.

of Europe are marked and permanent conditions of ex-
istence in these countries. In Belgium life is exceedingly
dense ; whilst in France the greatest efforts are made to
keep down discontent by the various devices to stimulate
trade, and by the creation of Imperial workshops ; all
these various efforts are made only because the population
can find work by no other means. But amongst our French
neighbours this question of excess of population over work
has spoken out again and again. It peered through the
embers of the First Revolution, and found its answer in
the wars of the First Napoleon. It awoke the teachings
of Fourierism, St. Simonism, Socialism, and Pied Repub-
licanism, all which gained heart and strength from it alone.
The inequalities of life may give point and force to anarchy,
but the key of sedition is to be found in the grasp of
hunger. Looking, therefore, alike at the past and the pre-
sent, labour in Europe would appear to be in excess of all
demands, and the probabilities are that the Continent will
send labour to compete with ourselves, rather than that they
will be in a position to relieve us from our surplus.

Before leaving this question, it will be well to note the
position of the existing armies of Europe. It is not neces-
sary to trace out the evils that arise from great standing
armies, but simply to mark their effect upon labour. At
the present moment the number of men under military
service is believed to exceed five millions. From time to
time the enormous expense incidental to their maintenance,
forces under consideration the question whether a general
disarmament cannot be carried out ; and although under the
existing circumstances of political life, such a step must be
considered impossible, yet a reduction will probably take place
sooner or later. The creation of armies to their present
magnitude has taken place within the last twenty years, and
the effect has therefore been, that the labour market has been

LABOUR. 105

relieved to the total number of men thus absorbed. We have,
therefore, to consider, first, what will be the effect if no war
of magnitude should intervene, ? and, secondly, what would
be the effect of a grand reduction of the standing armies ? In
both cases the result would be the same : the overstocked
labour market would be still further pressed by the surplus
labour liberated from military service and the effect of such
a step as a general disarmament it is impossible to foresee ;
but it obviously differs from that which many of its most
urgent supporters anticipate, A rapid disarmament in the
face of a stagnant trade would not improbably manifest itself
in wide spread revolution.

Looking, therefore, at all the circumstances connected
alike with our home and export trade, the relation that we
bear to the labour markets of Europe, and the very powerful
influence that machinery is destined to effect in' the future,
it would appear to be inevitable, that the demand for labour
in our own country is at present on the wane. Let us
track out how this bears upon that question which is ever
rising, and never answered — the condition of Pauperism.

106
CHAPTER VI.

PAUPERISM.

What is the future of Pauperism ? Is it to remain the evil
that it has heen for so long, or has the time arrived when
we shall be driven to face a great and growing difficulty by
the mere weight of its pressure ? The great mass of figures
that stands before us as a menace — varying with the seasons,
the march of epidemics, and the greater or lesser depression
of trade rouse us from our lethargy, and challenge our
reply. Are we to be content with tabulation, classification,
and supervision ? Are we to be content that this huge force
of waste labour, degrading and degraded, shall remain for
ever in the midst of us, accepted as a part of our normal life ?
or have we a right to demand that the question shall pass
from the condition of more or less efficient organization
into that of remedial statesmanship ?

Nothing can be more clear than the one fact, that the Poor
Law Board neither attempts, nor pretends to attempt, to deal
with any of the broad questions that bear upon pauperism.
It accepts and wields its position as a simple administrative
power, limiting its range and scope of thought to planning
schools, arranging nurseries, or erecting infirmaries. From
beginning to end it is content with this position ; it treats
pauperism as an element of our social life, for the well being
and training of which it is responsible, but responsible for
nothing more. If pauperism increases or decreases it asks
no questions. It supplies the existing wants, carries out
the necessary detail, and leaves the rest to chance. To
the ever-recurring questions, How is pauperism to be met?
what are the causes from which it springs ? why does it

PAUPERISM. 107

ebb and flow ? the Poor Law Board affords neither hint nor
suggestion — it is not its function. But the time is fast
coming when the question will force itself before us by the
mere weight of an ever increasing burthen, and will raise the
broad issue ; Are we to accept pauperism as an inevitable
necessity, or are we to struggle on with an incubus that
threatens to crash us ? This is the question of which all
other discussions are mere outlying points.

It is easy for men — even honourable and upright men, who
do not feel the pressure of poor-rates — calmly to point out
that the evil has been as great before, and has conquered
itself. But to those who stand on the verge line of struggling
life, inheritors alike of poverty and toil, — that huge class
from which pauperism is fed ; — to them the question is not
one of balancing and weighing, but one of overwhelming and
crushing necessity; to them the question rises up in its
naked significance, when their home totters to its fall under
the mere pressure of ever increasing rates.

There need be no evasion of the broad fact, it is the poor
who feed the poor ; it is in the pauperised districts where the
rates mount up, and where pauperism is most bitter and the
longest sustained; and it is in those districts where the load
weighs most heavily. But if this were all, the mere re-
organization and redistribution of our poor rates might meet the
di B&culty ; but the causes lie far deeper : they lie partly in the
fact that population is in excess of work, and in the still
more important fact that the prospects of the future point
decisively to the increase of this difficulty.

By some it is asserted that the causes of pauperism can
be traced to imperfect education, drunkenness, epidemics, or
bad harvests ; and although all these influences are powerful
as partial agencies, they are utterly unequal to explain the
broad facts of the case, or to check those more potent in-
fluences that underlie the whole. If education were perfect,

108 PAUPERISM.

if drunkenness were extinct, if epidemics ceased to exist,
and if bad harvests were unknown, there would still be some
portions of our social life that would belong of necessity
to the pauper class. No conceivable conditions can blot
out the possibilities of accidents, imbecilit}*, or disease ; and
no organization, however perfect, can struggle against those
powers which spring into play when trade slackens, and
employment is no longer to be found. We must, therefore,
recognise, and accept whilst we recognise, that pauperism is
an inalienable portion of all human society ; and that the
ameliorating influences of sanatary laws, education, and
sobriety may reduce, but cannot extinguish, the evil.

But the teaching that stands up before us is, that pau-
perism, as we now understand it, is a thing of modern
life, and that the mode of dealing with it which was befitting
a state of society such as existed at the time of Elizabeth
is useless for the changed conditions of to-day. The very
enactment that was passed indicated a class who are now
represented by our mendicants — the sturdy beggars who
could work but who would not, those who had been fostered
into idleness through doles at convent doors or church
porches, those who lived, and were content to live, by beggary.
To such a state of society the law that introduced the labour
test had a substantial meaning. The enactment runs as
follows : — ' ' The churchwardens and overseers, with the con-
' sent of two justices, shall take order, from time to time, for
' setting to rcork the children of all such whose parents shall
' not, by the said churchwardens and overseers, or the greater
' part of them, be thought able to keep and maintain their
' children ; and for setting to work all such persons, married
' or unmarried, having no means to maintain them, and
' using no ordinary and daily trade of life to get their living
' by ; and for the necessary relief of the lame, impotent, old,
' blind, and such other among them being poor and not able

PAUPERISM. 109

" to work. Thus it clearly appears this was an act for enforc-
" ing industry, not for encouraging idleness. No one was to
" be relieved, either child or adult, except, if able, by setting
" to work. The subsequent practice of granting money
" allowances, without equivalent labour, to able-bodied
" persons, and thereby creating a band of parish pensioners,
" was certainly never contemplated by the authors of this
" celebrated piece of legislation. . . . Between the age
" of Elizabeth and the present exists this important distinc-
" tion — the difficulty in the former was, as has been shown
" in the preliminary history of the industrious orders, to
" compel men to work; the difficulty is now to find them
" work to do. The idea of an able-bodied person willing
" to labour but unable to get employment, was never enter-
" tained by Lord Burleigh and his contemporaries. The
" object of their great measure was to meet the evil of
" idleness and vagabondage, which grew out of the decline
"of feudality. Hence I conclude that the obligation (if it
" exist) of parishes to relieve or find employment, for able-
" bodied paupers, has grown entirely out of the altered cir-
" cumstances of society, and that as these circumstances did
" not exist in the time of Elizabeth, the act passed in her
" reio*n could not have been framed to meet them." — Wade.
Let us consider what are the circumstances connected with
the pauper life of to-day? and what course of action it is
necessary to follow out ? The first glance at the question
indicates that there are three distinct classes of paupers : —

Those who cannot work ;

Those who will not work ;

Those who cannot find work to do.

Those who cannot work are composed of the deserted, the

broken, the aged, and the helpless ; the waifs and strays of

life, those elements which are an inherent portion of every

society, and which every society will accept the responsibility

110 PAUPERISM.

of maintaining without a murmur. But this element of our
pauperism is the smallest part ; and even the proportion
it now bears to the remainder is due to the general condition
of our overloaded labour market, for the pressure that tells
upon the artisan tells still more upon those to whom he
is the natural protector ; and, the consequence is that a
large proportion of those who are now reduced to seek
relief would, under more favourable circumstances, be taken
care of by their own friends.

The class that will not work the class which trades on
our pity, infests us with letters, whines at our elbow, or
loiters at the area gate, is being brought under the influence of
mendicity laws, through the effort now being made to propa-
gate societies founded on the system so ably and successfully
established at Blackheath, through the agency of the Bev. Mr.
Hart, and which aims at ridding us of shams by placing itself
in connection with the parish ; relieving exceptional cases by
exceptional means, and having for its final aim the check of
mendicity. We must not shut our eyes to the fact that this
course of action will not reduce mendicity ; it simply changes
its place and character. The mendicity that is driven
from Blackheath finds its outlet at Westminster, driven from
Westminster, it infests Paddington ; driven from Paddington,
it goes elsewhere ; and, if driven from all positions, it even-
tually comes back upon the rates as a part of our recognised
pauper population. It may be, and possibly is, wise to force
this result ; but it is equally well to recognise what the end
is that we eventually achieve. The effect here pointed out
follows from the one fact, that able and efficient workmen
are in superabundance in every trade, and whilst respecta-
bility struggles in vain to obtain work, mendicity has little
chance of employment. The result, therefore, will be that
if mendicity societies actually succeed, mendicity will sink
either into pauperism or crime.

PAUPERISM. Ill

But even if mendicity were capable of being dealt with in
its entirety, it would be but a small portion of pauperism.
The class which is at once the largest, the most respectable,
and the most difficult to deal with, is that class which seeks for,
but cannot find, employment, and which represents not only
the greatest number, but also that portion of pauperism which,
under existing conditions is, and must be, steadily on the in-
crease. It is curious to note how the tide of pauperism ebbs
and flows, but still more curious to note how its ebb and flow
are dependent upon the state of our trade. In order that the
evidence may be clear, the last twenty years have been taken,
and, on the assumption that our export trade represents the
means by which our surplus population are fed, the com-
parison is here instituted between the expansion and contrac-
tion of our trade, and the increase or decrease of pauperism :

Paupers.

Export.

1849

934,419

63,596,025

1850

920.543

71,367,885

1851

860,^93

74,44^,722

1852

834.424

78,076,854

1853

798,822

98,933,781

1854

818,337

97,184,726

1855

851,369

95,688,085

1856

877,767

115,826,948

1857

843,806

122,066,107

1858

908,186

116,608,756

1859

867,470

130,411,529

1860

851,020

135,891.227

1861

890,423

125,102,814

1862

946,166

123,992,264

1863

1,142,624

146,602,342

1864

1,009,289

160,449,053

1865

971.433

1< 5,835.725

1866

920,344

18^,917,536

1867

958,824

180,961,923

1868

1,034.823

179,463,644

112 PAUPERISM.

In looking over these figures, it is perfectly clear that
when trade expands, pauperism decreases ; when trade con-
tracts, pauperism increases. A large number of the class,
who seek einploynient hut cannot find it, come to the parish
only when driven to it by want of work, and they pass from
the parish books so soon as trade improves. There are two
exceptions in the table which it will save trouble to explain —
those of the years 1856 and 1863. In the year 1856 the
influence of a bad harvest, combined with the reaction con-
sequent upon the termination of the Crimean War, led to a
gseat increase of pauperism. In 1863 the influence of the
Cotton Famine, an event without parallel in the history of
trade, made itself felt, and sufficiently explains the excep-
tional increase of our pauper returns.

This element of pauperism is gravely important because
it represents a class that is reduced through the influence
of circumstances which they cannot control. The magnitude
of this portion of our pauper population will be best appre-
ciated by some remarks made by Lord Houghton. Speaking
in the house of Lords, April 17, 1869, on the question of
pauperism and emigration, Lord Houghton said: — "What
" are called the able-bodied poor considerably exceed 150,000,
" that being an increase of 7 per cent, on the numbers in
" 1867, whilst those numbers again were an increase of 6 per
" cent, on the numbers in 1866. It is apparent therefore
" that, notwithstanding the increase of wealth, pauperism is
"steadily advancing." The numbers here given are equal
to that of a large army, and since that date they have
much increased, but even at these figures it will be quite
apparent how great a proportion of the whole pauper class
they must represent, when the children belonging to them
are taken into account. If then this element of pauperism —
that which seeks work but cannot find it— be as it would
appear to be, the largest portion of our whole pauper class,

PAUPEKISM. 113

any suggestion that attempts to deal with pauperism must
deal with it through the relation it bears to labour, or by-
direct removal of the paupers themselves.

There is one phase of the question which is of grave
importance and now presses itself prominently upon our
notice : the tendency that exists to create a pauper class,
through the influence of long continued relief. As facts at
present stand, our every effort has a tendency to recoil upon
ourselves ; the relief that is given to-day, saps the self-sus-
taining energy of the recipient, and if long enough continued,
destroys not only the inclination to work, but all sense of
self-respect. The difficulties of this position are intensified
by the fact that a large number of those, who at present rank
amongst the pauper class, are driven to that position through
the state of trade. The evils that this inflicts are twofold,
not only is the morale of the class lowered, but the whole
tone of thought in connection with pauperism itself be-
comes insensibly changed. It is impossible to feel the
same pitying contempt for those who are driven on to the
parish by the mere badness of trade, as we should feel for
the idle and dissolute, who sink by their own want of
principle. A feeling of commiseration, which is naturally
awakened for the hard working man, overcome by circum-
stances, is thus gradually extended to the whole of the
pauper class, and is aided by the utter impossibility of
discriminating one from the other. Under these circum-
stances, and if long enough continued, the whole character
of pauperism will change ; and the brand of the pauper —
in its present meaning — will pass away.

The gravity of this danger it is impossible to deny, and
it is still further increased by the broad fact that we have in
the midst of us a permanent population of more than one
million who receive aid, and who live on from year to year,
acknowledged by us, as an integral part of our national life.

i

114 PAUPERISM

It is impossible to believe that such a proportion of our popu-
lation can permanently exist as paupers, without the moral
influence of such a position eventually reacting upon our
own thought. Such a result is already beginning to manifest
itself in the criticisms of some portions of our daily press ;
and if this influence be strengthened by the element of
misfortune now furnished by slackness of trade, we may
anticipate a large development of the feeling. If the
opinion but once gains firm hold, that pauperism is an evil
to which the honest and hard working are equally liable
with the careless and improvident, the check that is now
imposed by a sense of self respect will exist no longer.
The inevitable entails no disgrace : and the destitution that
springs from causes we are powerless to control, brings no
shame.

Amongst the other difficulties that surround pauperism,
there is one that springs from the existence of a purely
pauper class, those who are born from and belong to what
may be called the pauper blood. There is no fact in
physiology better established than the one which teaches
that like produces like, the pauper begets the pauper, the
taint, be it what it may, that runs in the blood, appears
and reappears in spite of all training and all circumstances ;
manifesting itself time after time under conditions where it
would be least looked for ; exhibiting all the qualities of in-
competence and recklessness ; and the pauper, ever drifting
back to the parish, quietly submits to his condition, and
accepts it with contentment. This class is well known to
all guardians, and may be regarded as the true pauper type.
In striking contrast to this are the cases that from time to
time occur where the child of a brave man's nature, nur-
tured though it may be in the very hot bed of pauperism,
shows, as the force of life gains upon him, the thirst for
freedom, and the willingness to maintain himself by

PAUPERISM. 115

labour; the typical child of the pauper makes his effort by
the mere force of education, and, when these conditions are
not all in his favour, gradually sinks back into the depths
from which he had emerged. The importance of this portion
of the question comes more clearly before us when we
remember the large number of children that are born in
the workhouse.

It is needless to sav that a large number of these children
are illegitimate. Born under such conditions, and reared
amidst paupers, what is more natural than that the taint
of the mother should reappear in the child? If the evil
of indiscriminate alms-giving creates mendicity, what is the
probability but that pauper children, reared as they are
and passing out into life under the circumstances that created
the first taint, must, sooner or later, return to the work-
house ? The facts are so ; for it is well known that a
large number of pauper born children eventually come upon
the rates.

Many see the outlet to this difficulty in the force of a
larger education ; but what education is so strong as the
education of habit ? the teaching from books, great as it
undeniably is, cannot compete with the teaching of facts,
and the first knowledge of a pauper child is the fact that he
is a pauper amid paupers. The atmosphere that belongs to
the outside world has no existence for him ; the fierce play
of individual energy that belongs to our struggling life
comes to the pauper child only when he moves out from the
system of which he is a unit, to take his place in the world.
And the training that had reared him, considerate as it
may have been, is still the training associated with pauper
thought and not the one best fitted to give him that
streno-th to strujnrle with those difficulties which are in-
separable from his position. Some attempts have been made
to meet this difficulty by the introduction of a system of

i 2

116 PAUPERISM.

" farming' out," based on the idea that the teachings of life
are more soundly inculcated by the children being reared
amongst that class to which they naturally belong and to
which they must revert when they have to earn their own
bread. This system promises well, the one great advantage
being that the child is brought up free from pauper asso-
ciation. But the difficulty connected with our pauper
children is still increased by the tendency that exists to
teach them the usual handicraft and trades, whilst skilled
workmen are already in large excess, the consequence is,
that their first start in life is hampered by the difficulties,
inseparable from such a set of circumstances. Robust
natures may struggle through, but feebler natures will
sink back to the Union. It has therefore been urged
that it would be wise to bring up some portion of pauper
children to a knowledge of agricultural pursuits, with a
distinct idea that their future lot will be best secured by
emigration.

There is no doubt that the question of how to rear pauper
children forms one large element of the responsibility of
parishes, but, great as that responsibility is, it does not
end there ; the difficulty that presents itself in the future
is one almost equally as great, for it is impossible to
avoid, and it is senseless to slur over, the ever recurring
question, how are they to live when they arrive at maturity?
No doubt exists that every home occupation is full even to
overflowing, and it is equally true that in every branch of
trade the effort that is necessary to make a livelihood is at all
times very great. How then are we to meet the position ?
The answer clearly is, to place the children in circumstances
where a demand for labour exists, and where the largest
advantages are offered for their future, both morally and
physically, and there is no opening so befitting as that of
emigration to our colonies.

PAUPERISM. 117

Those who see in emigration a great means of lifting up
our status as a people, and those who see in the same
course of action an utter wasting of our strength, yet cordially
concur in the testimony that skilled manufacturing labour in
all our colonies is in excess ; and all equally agree that the
skill of the farm servant and husbandman is in demand. This
one fact would seem to point out the wisdom of dealing with
pauper children, by recognising that the colonies are their
natural home, and by giving them such an education and
trainng as will fit them for an employment for which the
demand not only exists in the present, but will be much
larger in the future. The objection that exists to the
emigration of pauper adults does not exist to that of pauper
children ; the colonies absolutely reject the one, but would
be willing to receive the other ; and if, when children, these
paupers be removed to fresh scenes, and planted amid fresh
influences — if placed where the teaching to rich and poor
is, — Help Yourself — the profound value of such circum-
stances it is impossible to over estimate. It may be urged
that the expense would be unduly large, and one that a
parish has no right to undertake ; but it is exceedingly doubt-
ful whether the cost would be at all equal to the permanent
drain now made upon the ratepayers by the continuous call
for the support of those who could support themselves. But
entirely beyond all this, there rises the broad question whether
pauperism cannot fairly claim government assistance for such
a purpose. Such a concession would not be very large, nor
is there much probability it would be refused, if the question
were fairly brought forward.

We have now arrived at the point where emigration
rises to the surface, and where a series of causes combine
to point out its value ; but we have yet to trace out the
influence that mass emigration has had upon pauperism
itself, as illustrated by our statistical returns. The condition

118 PAUPERISM.

of Ireland after the famine affords us this opportunity, and
it affords it also, under circumstances exceptionally clear,
and the teaching thus yielded is both marked and decisive.
At the time of the famine, in 1846, the numbers were
enormously large, but no returns were taken, the first
being those in 1849, at which time a large reduction of
the pauper population had already taken place, through the
influence of state-aided emigration.

Paupers.

Population.

1849

620,747

7,256,314

1850

307,970

6,877,542

1851

209,187

6,514,473

1852

171,418

6,336,889

1853

141,822

6,198,984

1854

104,604

6,083,183

1855

85,296

6,014,665

1856

72,247

5,972,851

1857

55,183

5,919,454

1858

49,308

5,899,814

It will be noticed that year by year the population de-
creased, and pauperism decreased in proportion. In ten
years the mass emigration from Ireland had the effect of
reducing the number on her pauper roll from 620,747 to
49,308, and the reduced number ma}^ be considered about
the normal proportion that pauperism bears to her popu-
lation, for since that date, with very slight variations, the
numbers have remained the same. We have, therefore,
this one fact, that in Ireland the effect of her great emigra-
tion has been to reduce her pauper population to one -twelfth
of what it was, and to keep it at that position. This
will be still further enforced by a comparison between the
two countries. At the present moment, population for popu-
lation, there are five times as many paupers in England as

PAUPERISM 119

there are in Ireland. In England the proportion is nearly

1 in 20, in Ireland nearly 1 in 100 :

1868 Population. Paupers.

England and Wales 21,649,377 - 1,034,823

Ireland - - 5,532,243 - 56,663

One fact connected with Irish emigration, and the
influence it has had upon pauperism, it is necessary to
point cut. The Irish emigrate in families — men, women,
and children, old and young, all go together; whilst in
England, the very opposite is the case At the present
time English emigrants are represented by the youngest
and most energetic portion of the population, — those who
have sufficient foresight and sufficient courage to dare all
risks, and seek to found a home for themselves elsewhere.
They go alone ; the ties of kinship, which form so strong
a trait in Irish character, has little or no existence amongst
this portion of our population, and the result is, they leave
behind the aged and the feeble, who have to shift for
themselves or come upon the rates. This difference in the
class of emigration from the two countries goes far to
explain the cause of the existence of one portion of our
pauperism, — those who cannot help themselves — and to
indicate how it might be avoided. It seems difficult to
believe that we shall be content to allow pauperism
the same latitude in the future as we have allowed it in
the past. It seems still more difficult to believe that the
power of emigration can longer be ignored as a means of
reducing within moderate limits the great incubus of our
pauper population. It is not intended to urge that the
same amount of emigration is necessary for England as
was necessary for Ireland, but the lesson is best taken at its
worth, be the teaching what it ma}T.

The question of emigration, as bearing upon pauperism
and destitution generally, was discussed in connection with

120 PAUPERISM.

Lord Houghton's motion in the House of Peers, and the
opinions enunciated by men eminent alike by their ability
and position was distinctly opposed to the furtherance of
emigration even as a means of relieving the labour market.
Lord Overstone said, " He wished their lordships to consider
" seriously what was the evidence that this country was in
" such a condition as to require that we should resort to an
" extensive system of emigration. In his opinion all the
" elementary principles which affect the social condition of a
" country told a very different tale from that with which the
" noble lord who brought forward the question sought to im-
" press the House. He recollected that a few years ago the
" noble earl, who was at the head of the Government, had said
" to him, with a tone of surprise, that an eminent financial
" authority had told him that our annual savings amounted to
"£75,000,000, and had asked him if he believed the state-
" ment to be correct. His answer was that he would have
" stated the amount at a much higher figure, and subsequently
" he had occasion to notice that all the ablest statisticians of
"the country had put its accumulation of capital at some-
" thing like £150,000,000 a year. Now, the capital of a
" nation was its labour fund, and yet, with the enormous
" accumulation of capital which he had just mentioned, we
" were told that we must resort to every means in our power
" for exporting our labour. . . There were two main causes
" of distress and want of employment. First of all there was
" what he might term local congestion, by which certain classes
"in particular parts of the country were thrown out of work.
" . . . . Another cause of distress was the periodically
" recurring causes of commercial crisises ; but he had always
" maintained such events were the seed of expanding pros-
" perity in the future." Earl Grey, after complimenting Lord
Overstone, said, "He entirely concurred with him in believing
" that the country was not, in the ordinary sense of the word,

PAUPERISM. 121

" over peopled. There was no excess of population beyond
" what the country was well able to bear. . . . He niain-
" tained that to reduce the numbers of our working population
"would be to take away the very sinews and strength of the
" country." The Earl of Carnarvon followed in the same
strain. These opinions have been quoted, not because of their
force of thought, or accuracy of statement, but because they
were found sufficient to silence the discussion, being considered
absolutely conclusive by the House of Peers, Yet what in
reality are the reasonings that carry so much weight, and
what are the evidences advanced in support of the reasoning ?
The arguments advanced by Lord Overstone were the only
ones in which any attempt was made to bring the subject
home to ordinary minds, by appealing to plain facts and
acknowledged principles, and it is worth while, not only on
account of the gravity of the question itself, but also on
account of the eminent position held by Lord Overstone,
to examine carefully the general reasoning advanced by that
nobleman in support of his assertion that there is no necessity
for large emigration. Reduced to brief phraseology, the case
may be stated as follows : —

1st. — That destitution was partial, being- due to local

congestion of trade, which would right itself.
2nd. — That our present depression was due to an ordinary
commercial crisis, which, instead of being an evil,
might be regarded as the condition from which would
spring increased prosperity.
3rd. — That the profits of the country, formed the labour
fund of the country, and as our profits were equal to
150 millions per annum, it was impassible to regard
our present position in any other light than a mere
passing disarrangement.
With regard to the first, if there be any facts clear, they
are those that point out the very opposite of the position to

122 PAUPERISM.

that laid down; for instead of depression being merely local,
it exists, more or less, all over the country and the cases
of activity of trade are not only local and exceptional,
but due to very special causes; the evidence of these facts
are to be met with in the general discussion throughout the
whole of the press, in the demand for free emigration and
in the great rise in our pauper returns.

With regard to the second point, that the present
is a mere commercial crisis due to over speculation, the
answer is, that there is no case in our past commercial
history, where the stagnation from a commercial crisis
has been equal to that of the last four years, and this stagna-
tion has existed in the face of an export trade, that is to-day,
very much larger than it was ten years ago ; our commer-
cial panic produced large stagnation, but the endeavour to
explain a series of compound causes by one passing influence
fails, not because the principle itself is not true, but because
it is only a small part of the truth.

No mistake is greater than that which assumes that mere
commercial panics greatly affect trade ; when any such occur,
the speculative few may be injured, but the real trade of the
world remains substantially unaltered, for the great nations
who buy our calicoes neither know of, nor care, for a finan-
cial panic ; they eat, drink and are merry, whether it
occurs or not ; the power they possess to buy of us,
and the power we possess to supply their wants, remain
absolutely unchanged by the question of any panic. Beyond
this it must be recognised that a commercial crisis is a result
not a cause; a result not of over trading but of over produc-
tion, and when that occurs in the sense that it occurs to-day,
when we can produce not only all the world asks from us,
but an amount of manufactured goods very greatly in excess
of all possible demands under the existing conditions of life ;
we thus have that which we have now, a great commercial

PAUPERISM. 123

crisis, permanent depression and long continued want. It
is therefore unreal to explain a great phenomenon, like
that of the present condition of our country, by reference
to a commercial crisis that passed oyer our commerce nearly
four years ago. The explanation is, the power of production
is greater than the power of consumption.

Another point to which Lord Overstone refers, and on
which he lays great stress, is, that as the profits of a
country form its labour fund, and as our profits are
enormously large, the demand for labour in our country
must increase in like proportion. It seems very neces-
sary to point out the grave error that runs throughout the
whole of this reasoning. The assumption that labour will
increase in proportion to our profits, is not only not correct
but is opposed by the most common -place facts. It is
quite true that profits do really form the labour fund of a
country ; but it is even more emphatically true that our
country has long since passed the position when she could
make use of her profits for the extension of her trade. The
mere fact that on our Stock Exchange loans for every con-
ceivable purpose, and from almost all the countries of the
world, are not only now, but have for a very long time
past, been taken up by our surplus capital seems a final
answer to any question about the action of profits upon the
labour market. A century ago, a demand existed for money
to supply the various requirements incidental to wars, the
growth of trade, and the springing up of our commercial
relations all over the world ; these causes demanded a large
amount of capital, and as a consequence, our profits then
formed a large element in the growth of trade; but,
when these needs were satisfied, our profits had to find
outlets elsewhere, and they have found them in the
various foreign markets. Some part of the haziness of
thought that surrounds this portion of the question is due

124 PAUPERISM.

to ideas promulgated by Adam Smith, who pointed out
how the realised profits formed a fund which aided labour.
This condition was true of his time, but the circumstances
are so utterly changed that in our country to-day, instead of
capital being required, it is already largely in excess ; the
difficulty at the present time being, not to find the capital,
but to find the legitimate use for it. When therefore it is
gravely in excess, what effect can the mere increase of that
excess have upon the demand for labour or the growth of
trade? Not only do these facts exist as now stated, but
throughout the whole country our manufactories are all built,
and the capital necessary to develope and carry them through
is already in existence ; what is now required for the present
condition of our trade, is not the capital for the construction
of larger powers of production, but the demand for the goods
which our factories are capable of supplying. We must
therefore except as altogether apart from the question any
endeavour to connect the influence of profits with any direct
increased demand for labour.

We have now arrived at the point where it is necessary
to count up the whole of our results. Putting on one side all
the minor questions of mendicity, &c, &c, the evidence points
out that probably the largest portion of our pauperism is due,
directly or indirectly, to the excess of labour over employ-
ment, or in other words, a large portion of our pauperism comes
from want of trade ; it still further points out how some
portion of the residue of our pauperism is due to causes that
are capable of being still further reduced by such means as
the emigration of our pauper children, and by aiding in the
carrying out a system of family emigration as distinct from
individual emigration. We therefore stand face to face with
these two conclusions, that a development of our trade will
reduce pauperism, and that a large emigration will have the
same effect. The question now before us is how can these

PAUPERISM. 125

two ends be accomplished so as to act with justice to all
concerned.

The first question will be the condition of Emigration in
its double aspect as a means for relieving our over loaded
labour market, and as a means for developing our export
trade ; and, in the second place, the capacity that India
possesses for the consumption of our manufactures, in both
cases acting as a direct agency for the reduction of our
pauperism and the elevation of our people. The con-
viction is gaining ground slowly, but definitely, that
emigration is one great power for good; and beyond this
arises the idea that the country needs not only a great
emigration system, but one aided, developed, and controlled
by government agency. The question is, how can this be
carried through so as to aid the manufacturer, elevate the
artisan, and reduce the rates? On its capacity to effect these
three things depends the large value of emigration.

126

CHAPTER VII.

EMIGRATION.

Emigration is a great law of the world ; it was so in the
past, it is so in the present, and it will be so in the future.
Its teaching's come down to us through the dim light of
tradition, and the fuller light of history; and above the
changes of dynasties or the wreck of empires its course
moves on unchanged ; whilst its influence has done more to
mould history than the action of warriors or the efforts
of statesmen, for it belongs to, springs from, and is a part
of, that widest of all wide laws — the growth of population.
Men must live : if the country yields an insufficiency of
food, the common instinct of self-preservation bids them
find a home elsewhere; and hence comes the great principle
of emigration.

The need for its fulfilment is heavy upon us to-day ;
with every avenue of trade filled to overflowing, with desti-
tution widely spread, with a giant mass of pauperism, with
machinery lessening the demand for labour, and with a
population whose increase is more than four thousand per
week, the question rises before us in a form at once vivid
and startling, and points out the gravity and necessity for
such a step as large emigration. Many see and accept this
conclusion; they recognise with an unwavering distinctness
the aid that emigration can bring: towards the solution of our
present difficulties, and they crave with a great craving the
opportunity to test its capacity. This is evidenced by the
huge mass of people who crowd to every emigration meeting,
by the testimony of working men's societies and by the

EMIGRATION. 127

appeals again and again brought forward asking fur Govern-
ment aid. These tendencies force upwards the questions
why is aid refused? and in what relation should the colonies
stand to the mother country ?

The reasons for refusing Government aid are not difficult
to find. They rest on the assumption that the necessity
which would justify such a step does not now exist; they
rest still further on a feeling, more or less widely spread,
and more or less distinctly enunciated, that the removal of
our surplus population would destroy the strength of the
country. It should in justice be said that those who hold
such opinions are quite removed from the position where
the logic of hunger has the opportunity of speaking out.
The refusal for aid rests also upon the belief that our trade
will revive sufficiently to re-absorb our suplus labour ; and,
in the meantime, the compressibility of life, short work,
poverty, rates in aid, and the workhouse, will carry the
difficulty through in some way or the other,

By some it may be considered altogether unwise to raise
these questions; but from beginning to end the discussion
of these subjects is not a matter of free choice, they are
forced upon us bj the conditions of life that now surround
us. If pauperism did not exist, if destitution did not exist,
if starvation did not exist, it would not be idle but it would
be wearisome to discuss the huge idea of a continuous mass
emigration, fostered and carried through under government
superintendence ; but, when the question rises before us in the
shape of ever increasing rates and ever increasing misery,
and when it is pressed still closer home by the mutterings
of socialism, and by open air discussions as to who are the
rightful owners of the land, it is at once lifted out of the
ordinary conditions of political life into that status when it
must be dealt with, whether we will or no.

Let us suppose that Government aid be refused, let us

128 EMIGRATION.

still further suppose that private aid is lavish, and through it
an organization is brought into being to remove some portion
of our surplus population; such a step can only temporise
with the evil, and a year or two later it will have assumed a
still greater proportion. The actual growth of our population
for which there is no work and no prospect of work, is
220,000 per annum ; can private aid grapple, or perma-
nently deal with a problem so great as this ? Beyond this it
must be remembered that mere emigration, that is, the mere
removal of the surplus population from our own shores to
that of any other shore, will not solve the problem. Sooner
or later such a course would produce evils, almost as great
as those we now seek to remedy, at the points where our own
people were landed : and we should thus not be grappling with
the difficulty itself, but simply shifting it on to other places.
It will be quite clear that any great mass of emigration directed
towards any of our colonies, without previous provision being
made for their reception, would eventually entail great destitu-
tion and misery. Besides this, it is obvious that such a course
of action could not permanently maintain itself, for foreign
countries and our colonies would very vigorously object to
being treated in any such manner. We must therefore be
prepared to face the absolute condition of the question that
emigration has the double phase: the removal of our surplus
population from our own shores, and the more or less direct
preparation for their reception elsewhere. And the probability
would appear to be, that we must ultimately accept a distinct
system of colonization.

There are some persons, although it may be assumed
not many, who will wrap themselves up in their own self-
sufficient wealth and affect to ignore the gravity of our present
position. Let them not be mistaken. The warning notes of
danger rise high in the air and challenge the whole condition
of our present social life, and if less evident are none the less

EMIGRATION. 120

real. Those, who know the under current must thoroughly,
know, that discontent is deep, stirring and wide-spread, and
that the angry outbreak, which now and then rises to the sur-
face, is but the spark that springs from the fire of sedition
which smoulders below. One thing is quite certain, men are
not prepared to starve, and rates in aid will scarcely silence
the awkward questions concerning the land which will be
madly discussed, when want drives the teaching home. What
those questions are, whither they tend and what they teach,
may be gathered from open air speeches and socialistic
discussions ; whether right or wrong, they exist and will
gain force, point and consistency from the pressure of
want.

Emigration would modify, if not remove, all this. Our
people are patient, hard working and long suffering ; only
show them how they can earn their bread, and hot political
discussions will sink to the regularity and temperance of
House of Commons debates. Let the contrary take place,
let the recognition sink into the minds of the people, that
political crotchets are considered of more importance than the
lives or well being of the people themselves, and the educa-
tion of political thought will grow with strange rapidity ; no
teacher like hunger and no harvest time of sedition so prolific
as that of idleness and want. But beyond all this their rises
the question, why should aid be refused? The logic that sees
strength in myriads of people even though pauperised and
starving, and would chain a population to our shores for
which we have neither need nor work, is so utterly puerile
that it needs no answer. The question stands up, clearly
and distinctly in its two phases; on the one side there is
hunger, desperation and danger, on the other a growing
trade, an improving national life and hope for the future.
The question is, which shall be chosen, and if chosen how
chosen, and in what manner acted upon.

K

130 EMIGRATION.

There can be little doubt which course will eventually be
chosen ; the press of life thickens every day, and the pressure
of thought evolves more and more vividly the elements of the
great problem of our future, and so soon as men grasp clearly
and fixedly the broad fact that mass emigration is a great
necessity, all the consequences that flow from that position
will follow very rapidly ; but it would appear to be wise before
such a time arrives to recognise clearly what it is that has to
be done. The first requirement that stands out is the neces-
sity for creating a system of free passage to our colonies by
Government aid ; and the second requirement is, distinct
arrangements with our various colonial authorities so as to
ensure work to emigrants when they arrive at their various
destinations. Around these two points a number of questions
revolve, which it will be wise to examine.

One objection may, and probably will be, urged against
such an idea. It will be distinctly said that it is not the
place of Government to undertake any such arrangements,
for by the ordinary law of supply and demand, things will
right themselves. But what is meant by supply and de-
mand ? There are cases that from time to time rise to the
surface where, from sheer pressure of want, all energy,
all forethought, all hope is more or less crushed out. It
may be asked, How can such people find for themselves a
home elsewhere ? How can those who know not where the
bread of to-morrow is to be found find means to pay for
emigration ? They may be honest, willing, and hardworking,
but they are powerless ; they are so utterly beaten by circum-
stances, that there is no possibility of their being lifted up but
by help from without. Leave them where they are, and permit
the law of supply and demand to work its own results, and
what will follow? Starvation, mendicity, and the workhouse.
What they need is aid to lift them up and to place them where
the struggle for life is less bitter. The argument that applies

EMIGRATION. 181

to the lowest of this class will, with modification, apply also to
the highest. Many an artisan may possess the power to pay
for his own passage to another country, but has no means to
pay for those who belong to him, and if he avails himself of
the advantages of emigration, he must go alone, and leave
his wife and children as a burden to the parish. It is for
these reasons we must recognise that aid is so imperatively
needed ; those who have the means and the will to emigrate
need no consideration ; they ask no questions, seek no
favours, and carry their energy where they will. But for
those who are so beaten down as to be utterly helpless, those
who have no hope, no means, and no friends, to all such
state aid must be given if they are to emigrate at all.

The question naturally arises, if aid be given, in what
form should it be given, and with what intentions. It
has been suggested by Lord Carnarvon that, however the
problem may be worked out, the most prudent arrangement
that is open to us is by means of loans to our colonial
governments. Such a course seems at once simple and
wise ; but it will be necessary that a more decisive state-
ment of the case should exist. If money be lent to our
colonial governments it would appear necessary that it should
be lent for a three-fold purpose : first, the benefit of the
mother-country : by relieving the overloaded labour market,
freeing us from some portion of our destitution and pauperism,
and for the purpose of developing our commerce. In the
second place, the benefit to the colonies by the influx of
labour, the means for whose payment and use would be
guaranteed by the money lent by the Home Government ;
and, in the third place, the benefit to the emigrant by the
opening up of a new field for labour, in which the ad-
vantages would be all in favour of those who work.

It would seem only reasonable that any scheme of emigra-
tion should combine all these results, and also that the

k 2

132 EMIGRATION.

reasons on which the whole movement is based should be so
clear that all persons could understand them. Differences of
opinion will be sure to exist, but, in proportion as the absolute
necessity of emigration becomes more and more evident, the
difference will be that of detail, and not that of principle.
It is also reasonable to recognise that, as England will have
to bear the first brunt of the burden connected with any
emigration scheme, the value the movement can have to
her position and to her commerce should stand clearly in the
foreground. The growth of our commerce is to ourselves an
unconditional necessity, and the power that emigration
posseses to effect this end is only beginning to be recognised
even by those who take the largest interest in these questions.
But, keeping these points in view, let us trace the idea
through.

The great field of enterprise that is open to us, in connec-
tion with a widely spread and carefully nurtured system of
emigration, it is almost impossible to realize, and the part
that it is capable of playing in our future commerce has
scarcely attracted the attention it deserves. The vast area of
our colonial empire is to-day practically untouched, myriads
of acres of land lying waste and useless, the natural mines
of wealth of our future as soon as they are brought into use.
The capacity they possess to feed an enormous population is
recognised as an abstract fact — but very little more, and they
are only considered in this sense when the prospect of wide-
spread destitution forces the question to the surface, as is the
case at the present time; but this mode of viewing the subject
is at once spasmodic and fragmentary, and shuts out the con-
dition of value that our colonies can be made to bear to our
future commerce.

At the present time our colonies buy from us a large
portion of our exports, about one quarter of the whole, and
there is no substantial reason why they should not be made

EMIGRATION. 133

customers to an amount equal to the total of our present
export trade with the entire world. This assertion may
at first sight appear unreasonable, but let us examine the
whole conditions of the question. At the present moment
the probable total of our colonial population — apart from
India— is about ten millions of people, and they are spread
over a space equal to one quarter of the globe, located
on the mere borders of our colonial possessions. It has
hitherto been found that as these populations increase, either
by the natural growth of population or by the increase
of emigration, our exports increase in proportion, being
checked only by high tariffs and the growth of their own
manufactures, The result, therefore, resolves itself into
this : that so soon as our colonial population has increased
fourfold we may anticipate our exports will have increased in
like rates. An illustration of this capacity for absorbing our
exports was given by Australia at the time of the discovery
of gold ; a second was given at the time of the Californian
gold fever ; and it has already been pointed out in the
chapter on the Growth of Trade, that there is a distinct
connection between the mass of our emigration and the
increase of our exports.

The reasons for this being so are very large. All new
countries must purchase their manufactured goods from
Europe or America and will continue to do so until they
erect manufactories of their own. It is therefore obvious
that the direct action of emigration is to increase our ex-
port trade. We have also to remember that the land which
is valueless, whilst it remains unfilled, creates wealth by
the action of labour ; and the ploughman, who is a burden
on his parish in Hertfordshire or Somersetshire, or who
migrates to the nearest market town to swell still further the
poor rates there, rises into position and use in those parts
of the world where the land reouires his labour, and, as he

134 EMIGRATION.

thus rises in life he always becomes a larger pnrchaser of
•our home manufactures. The first essential of all trading'
is the capacity to pay for what is bought, and this power of
payment, in any large sense of the term, must come out
of the land, and the only way it can come out of the land
is by work. The result that follows is, that the first
element in creating an export trade is to place the labour
that is useless at home on the land that is useless in other
parts of the empire. We stand to-day in the condition when
the balance between agriculture and manufacture has been
disturbed, and when we can produce more manufactured
than we can use and less food than we can eat ; the effort
must therefore now be made to re-establish the balance, by
fostering a development of our agricultural power through a
great emigration to our colonies.

The power of emigration as a means of developing our
export trade can scarcely be overestimated ; of what value
are the exceeding poor to our manufacturers whilst they
remain at home ? What can be the consumption of English
manufactured goods by that class, whose life is but one step
above the savage? What can be the demand whilst care and
want are the elements of life amongst a large portion of our
English artisan class? And on the other hand, who shall
place limits to their power of consumption when settled in
other lands, where their every days toil not only produces
for them the means to live, but the power of accumulating
wealth to purchase whatever their inclination dictates ? In
this sense the growth of our population is a profound good for
the manufacturing interest, if it be only properly utilized.

But looking at the subject from this point of view, the
necessity for care and judgment in carrying the arrangement
out in its entirety, becomes only the more apparent. It is
quite true that our past emigration has fostered our export
trade, both rapidly and decisively ; but, that emigration was

EMIGRATION. 135

entirely different, both in class and character, from a free
emigration carried out by Government aid; and the con-
ditions that would evolve success and prosperity in the one
case, might produce care and destitution in the other. We
have therefore to consider what plan will be necessary to
produce satisfactory results under the proposed conditions.

It is quite obvious that no arrangement can be made with
the shifting bulk of poverty and semi-poverty to which the
thought connected with Government aid naturally turns ;
it is equally impossible that any satisfactory arrangement
could be made through the existing channels of emigration
agency ; the risk would be too great, and the difficulties
too large. We must, therefore, turn to the assumption that
satisfactory arrangements can be made through our various
colonial governments. In order that such a supposition may
not seem extravagant, let us remember what is proposed to
be done, and what is the point aimed at. In the first place it
is quite clear that no arrangement can be suggested to a
colony that is not a direct benefit to itself, but it must at the
same time be remembered that there is no benefit so direct
and so unequivocally accepted as that of emigration, pro-
viding it be of the class required. We, therefore, start with
the groundwork sound : the colonies want that which we are
willing to give viz., population. The circumstances just now
are peculiarly in favour of any arrangement being readily
carried out ; the best evidence of this is the desire, broadly
and strongly expressed by the colonists themselves, for a
more distinct and intimate union with England, beyond this,
no condition would tend so absolutely to bind ourselves and
our colonies together, as a great emigration carried out by
arrangements between the colonies and the mother country.
We have, therefore, two points clear: one is the desire of the
colonies for our emigrants, and the other is the desire for a
more intimate alliance with ourselves. It is nut necessary

136 EMIGRATION.

to analyse the motives, or the conditions on which the last is
based. It may be the desire, as has been very openly
expressed, to have some portion of our army ready to do
their righting ; or it may be the consciousness that the
colonies gain in dignity by closer association ; but, be it
what it may, it answers all purposes, so long as the fact
is so. We may, therefore, assume that with these feelings in
existence, but little difficulty would be experienced in work-
ing through an arrangement with our colonies to receive, on
equitable terms, our surplus population.

There are two distinct elements in the question of Emigra-
tion which it is necessary to clear up before we proceed further:
the one is, the necessity that exists on our part to relieve
ourselves of our surplus population, and the other is the ad-
vantage that our surplus population would be to our colonies.
This last point has been considered so important by some of
the writers in the public press, as to induce them to discuss
the probability that the colonies would undertake the whole
responsibility of the Emigration movement, and so relieve us
from all further trouble. Putting on one side our own
position and our own necessities, it is not by any means clear
that our colonies would be at all disposed to take any such
steps. It is quite true that our surplus population would be
of enormous advantage to them, but it must be remembered
that our colonies are growing rapidly by their own natural
increase of population and by that portion of emigration which
now exists, and although large emigration would be to them
a great good and a great pecuniary advantage, it is not
an absolute necessity. It must also be remembered that
there is no special reason why the colonies should do now
that which they have hitherto left undone. In the past, as
well as in the present, it has always been in the power of
the colonies to grant sums of money for free emigration
if they had so chosen, but the advantages derivable by

EMIGRATION. 137

the colonies from such a course has never been sufficiently
decisive to induce them to adopt it ; and the temptations
to such a step at the present time are naturally diminished in
proportion as our necessities become more apparent. There
are, also, important reasons on the other side why England
should desire, and why it would be wise, that the mother-
country should be the active agent in so important a
matter. In the first place it will permit us the better to
consult our own necessities, so far as excess of popula-
tion is concerned ; and, in the second place, it will the
better enable us to discuss those tariff relations which
ought to form so essential an element in any Govern-
ment plan. The probabilities would therefore appear to be
greatly in favour of the assumption that action must be taken
by the Home Government if emigration is to be efficiently
carried through ; under such circumstances the question will
again be as to how the money is to be employed, and how
it is to be repaid. In order that the idea of Government
emigration may be understood, it is suggested —

1st. — That emigration should, as a final resource, be
absolutely free so far as immediate payment was
concerned.

2nd. — That emigration should take place, as far as prac-
ticable, by families.

3rd. — That each emigrant should be entitled to a certain
area of land for the purposes of cultivation, subject
to Government control until the emigration money
be repaid.

4th. — That each emigrant should bind himself to repay,
to our own or the Colonial Government, the money
advanced for his transit, as well as any expense
incidental to his arrival in the colonies.

138 EMIGRATION.

5th. — That such bond should be a first charge upon the
land assigned to the emigrant.

6th. — That all money so advanced should bear interest at
the rate of 3 per cent, per annum.

7th. — That all intending emigrants should be chosen by
fitness, character, &c, &c, and those who could
deposit a portion of their passage money to have the
preference.

Assuming that the funds are forthcoming from the Im-
perial Government, as a loan at 3 per cent., to the Colonial
Government, it may be asked, What is required from the
Colonial Government ? The answer is, that they shall make
arrangements to find the emigrants work. Such an under-
taking would entail considerable care and forethought, but
ought not to present grave difficulty. In an old country
where all the conditions and all the more marked require-
ments of life are already perfect, the difficulty of finding work
fer new hands is always very large, but all the points that
tell against an old country tell in favour of a new one. In
England, for example, all our great public works are finished,
in Canada and Australia most of the great public works have
yet to be carried out ; the land has to be cleared and tilled,
roads to be made, houses to be built, and all the conditions of
life that are complete at home have still to be perfected in
our colonies, so that a vast field of labour lies open before
them. But it must not be ignored that to prevent the
labour from being too dense at any one place supervision
and foresight is an absolute and unconditional necessity.
So long as emigration is left to kself, the numbers of
emigrants hold themselves in check, by the difficulties
inseparable from emigration itself, and b}T the uncertain-
ties that surround it; but, so soon as emigration becomes
exceedingly easy, the numbers who will leave our shores

EMIGRATION. 189

will be so great as to necessitate some previous organization
at the point of their destination, in order to avoid famine,
disease, and want. This portion of duty should belong of
right to the Colonial Government.

Assuming that the Colonial Government would be willing
to undertake the responsibility, and, still further, to guarantee
the interest and repayment of the money advanced, because
of the obvious advantages connected with a large emigration
movement directed towards their own shores, it may fairly be
asked how can the Colonial Government see its way to secure
the repayment of its own money ? The answer is, that the
labour that goes into the land is inalienable security. The
land that is valueless whilst it was untilled, springs into value
the moment the labour is placed on it, and we thus, by the
mere action of labour, create value and security at the same
time. This would be true with regard to all our colonies, but
it has often been asserted, with reference to Canada, that there
exists a constant tendency on the part of all emigrants, when
they reach that country, to find greater temptations in the
United States, and gradually re-emigrate there. It is, there-
fore, assumed as a probability that some such difficulty
would belong to any large system of emigration to that
colony : it may be answered, that no great undertaking
can be carried on, involving the varying feelings and interest
that belong to a great mass of people, without some such
condition being possible. But the probability becomes ex-
ceedingly limited if the emigration takes place by families
instead of by individuals. There is the unwritten law of life
which binds men to their homes and their families, and those
who would hesitate to desert their children in England, would
exhibit the same hesitation in Canada ; the bonds of feeling
are strong enough to hold men under temptations far greater
than this.

If, in addition to this, it becomes clear to the colonist

140 EMIGRATION.

that by his own labour he can win for himself his own
home, his own land, and his own independence, all proba-
bilities are in favour of his abiding by his agreement.
It has been demonstrated again and again that there is no
spur so strong as the spur of property, and when a man sees
before him the possibility and the probability of realising
an absolute independence by his own labour, the temptation
to remain where he is becomes overpoweringly great, and
under these circumstances and with these prospects before
him the labour that he will put on his ground is alike un-
stinted and unwavering. It will also be quite obvious that,
when a colonist is settled on his land, he is bound by every
tie to remain where he is, because the fruits of his labonr
are in it ; and as the land improves under his efforts, it
also improves by that which is not his effort, viz., the mere
increase of population ; and thus his capacity to repay the
money lent him will grow and his chances of independence
will grow in the same proportion. We have, therefore,
two securities for the repayment of the money : the one is
the man's own individual exertion on the land, and the other
is the increased value of the property by the increase of
population. Looking, therefore, at the whole case, there does
not appear any grave difficulty in carrying out an arrange-
ment that would be an aid to the colonies, advantageous to
the colonist, and a benefit to ourselves.

It may be asked, Why should we so specially select our
own colonies ? If emigration is to be brought into action,
why should we not make use of that plan which is at once
the cheapest and most direct, — viz., a free passage to the
United States. The answers to this are manifold. In the
first place it is exceedingly dubious whether the United States
would submit to a permanent continuance of a mass emigra-
tion from any country such as is here referred to. The
facts connected with New York, and the other great seaboard

EMIGRATION. 141

cities of America, already point to the existence of a large
mass of pauperism, doubtless due to the continuous influx
of emigrants. So long as this is the mere action of private
will and private enterprise, so long must the United States
submit to a state of things which is a temporary evil, but
which it cannot alter; but the moment the question passes
from that of private action into that of Government arrange-
ment, they would have a distinct right to protest, and no
doubt such a result would follow so soon as our emigration
was found to be more than the ordinary conditions of life in
America could readily absorb. It has also been urged that
by our aiding the emigration to America, we are in reality
building up a great rival. It seems altogether beneath the
dignity of our country to express any fear for the growth of
the power of the United States, her greatness be it what it
may, is in one sense a greatness of our own ; they are our
descendants, shoots from a great parent stem; they inherit our
language, our literature, and our laws, and they illustrate and
enforce the value of those qualities on which we most pride our-
selves; but, in the present state of their commercial relations,
they have deemed it wise to enforce a tariff on all imported
goods, that acts almost as a prohibition of our manufactures.
In this course of policy, success is its own justification ; but,
placed as England is to-day with an enormous manufacturing
power that requires work, with a large population dependent
upon its activity, it becomes a first necessity that any
state aid that is given to emigration, should be given where
the direct and indirect influences are the most decisively in
favor of our home manufactures, and these conditions are best
fulfilled by aid to our colonies.

The very magnitude and power of our colonial empire to
aid us in our demand for increased commerce and to fulfil
all that is required, become more distinct the more closely
it is examined. The following facts will illustrate this : —

142 EMIGRATION,

" Our colonial empire covers about a third of the earth's
" surface, and contains nearly a fourth of mankind. Its area
" is more than thirty times as extensive, and its population is
" more than five times as numerous, as those of the United
" Kingdom. It is estimated in the latest accessible official
" returns (in which, however, considerable discrepancies are
"noticeable) that its area is somewhat under 4,750,000
" of sqnare miles, and its population is somewhat over
" 155,000,000 of persons. Of this vast dominion about
" 1,000,000 square miles are in India, more than 2,500,000
" square miles are in Australia, and more than 600,000
" square miles are in North America. The population of
" British India is nearly 145,000,000, of British North
" America nearly 4,500,000, and of Australasia nearly
" 1,700,000, Our possessions in the West Indies (including
" Tropical America), the Cape (including Kaffraria), and
" Ceylon, have together an aggregate area of about 460,000
" square miles, and an aggregate population of about
" 3,730,000 persons." — Westminster Review, Jan. 1870.

With a territory as large as that here depicted, embracing
every condition of life and every variety of climate, there
exists no obstacle to the development of a commerce im-
mensely great. Not only this, but our colonies contain
all the elements for the building up of a great outlying
empire, fostered by the mother country, but controlled by
themselves. Under these circumstances, the broad question
is, in what relation ought we to stand to our colonies, and in
what relation ought our colonies to stand to us ? It would be
mere waste of time to discuss the supposition that any set of
circumstances would warrant us in endeavouring to guide our
colonies by any more intimate imperial machinery than that
which at present exists ; whatever may be its value or what-
ever may be its failings, colonial representative government
is an existing fact, and it would be impossible, even if it were

EMIGRATION. 143

wise, either to modify or change it. The whole course of
events, not- only throughout our colonies but throughout the
whole world, points to a freer political thought and freer
political action, and any policy that seeks to be permanent
must contain within itself the germ of those conditions that
will satisfy the needs cf the future.

There is a mode of viewing our colonial empire which has
originated with the idea that it is more trouble than it is
worth, and if a country's policy were to be guided by
irritability of temper instead of calm common sense, it would
be quite possible to conceive conditions which would apologise
for such opinions ; but, as events are rapidly developing, the
recognition that the enormous power our colonial empire pos-
sesses can be readily utilized, both in a monetary and social
point of view, we may anticipate a very great change in our
existing policy. Viewed in a large sense, our colonial empire
may be considered as simply the outlying portions of Great
Britain, which for the sake of convenience and economy now
govern themselves, and which it would be at once our policy
and wisdom to associate intimately with ourselves in our
future career.

It may be difficult to predict the future, but it requires
but little foresight to perceive, that our colonial empire must
grow both rapidly and continuously. The mere mass of
emigration that would flow from our shores would be a cause
sufficient for such a result. The question is, how shall it
be moulded? Shall it take the impress from our thoughts
at home, or shall it grow into whatever form chance dictates?
Shall we strive to make our colonies an integral part of the
empire, and from which the future affords no reason to antici-
pate a separation, or shall we regard an eventual separation
as the natural development of the life of a colony ? The
answer to these questions will depend upon the mode in which
the whole subject is viewed. By those who regard war as the

144 EMIGRATION.

beginning and end of life, and peace a mere armed neutrality,
by them our colonies wiil be considered sources of weakness
and danger. But those who look upon war as a system fast
dying out, and who see in the future an ever increasing
necessity and an ever increasing probability of the permanent
maintenance of peace — they will believe that the colonies
contain within themselves the true germs of our future
strength, ever developing silently the grandeur of our
empire ; whilst in the present they can absorb and use
that surplus population which now festers in our streets
and that surplus capital which is now lying by, waiting
for employment. Under such possibilities the relation that
we bear to our colonies and that our colonies bear to us
becomes of grave importance. If wisely ordered, the whole
relationship would become more intimate and more reci-
procal year by year, and the little jealousies that now crop
up would die out under the spell of mutual benefits, and we
should grow together as the units of a great and wide spread-
ing people.

We have now before us the rough outline of what emigra-
tion can be made to do. It can be made to release our over-
loaded labour market, reduce pauperism, and to help those
who cannot help themselves. It can be made to act with
enormous power upon the advancement of our commerce, and
it can be made to build up with great force the undeveloped
powers of our vast empire. All these things are more than
possible, they flow naturally from our existing conditions.
The question is, shall the effort be made ? Shall emigration
be organised and developed on a systematic plan, or shall it
be left to drift as ciscumstances may dictate ? Shall it be
worked out by private aid, or shall it be a matter of state
policy? The answer to these questions is not difficult to
foresee : sooner or later the magnitude of the whole subject
and the evidence by which it is supported, will force them-

EMIGRATION. 145

selves so overwhelmingly on men's minds, that state aid
in some form will be accepted as an unequivocal necessity.
By an instinctive sagacity the working-men themselves feel
that emigration is the true panacea for the existing condition
of things, for, to use their expressive phraseology, " they
are too thick here." It is curious, but none the less true,
that the great underlying thoughts that guide national
policy often commence at the base of society ; the reason
for this is not far to seek : the pressure of necessity
forces on men the habit of continuous thought in connection
with subjects which are essential to their own well being,
and with limited knowledge, limited opportunity', and limited
education, they thus seize with an intense force the point
that is vital to themselves. It is thus that their opinion has
value, it is thus also that they enunciate the necessity for free
emigration, for they know their own need, and we may, there-
fore, be content to accept the plain common sense and prac-
tical thought that points out the permanent value of State
aided emigration. Let us now consider the great question of
our Indian Empire, and the means by which we can elevate
the status of its people and promote the growth of our own
manufactures.

] in

CHAPTER VIII.

INDIA.

From what point of view are we to regard our great Indian
Empire? Shall we be content to chronicle the brilliant
deeds of Clive, Hastings and Wellesley ? Shall we track out
that line of policy by which a company of quiet merchants
built up the grandeur of our Indian rule, or shall we turn to
the every day conditions of life, and ask: What benefit do
we, as a people, derive from that empire, which has been won
by the genius, valour and toil of our great men ? The tinsel
of governing far reaching dependencies has shrunk into
its natural proportions, and we have now reached the point
where we no longer claim to measure our strength by the
extent of our dominions, whilst it is long since that lacs of
rupees formed the reward of successful pillage or atrocious
mendacity. The very term — lacs of rupees — awakens in our
memories the Begum speech of Sheridan, and the vigorous
denunciations of Burke. It recalls from the pages of
Macaulay those dramatic paintings of Indian society drawn
from the life, whilst his words re-create into being the timid
form of the crouching Bengalee ; yet it is by comparing that
past with our present, that we are enabled to recognise how
fast our scope of thought has changed both in intensity and
character, Within a few years our great dependency has
passed from the rule of a company of merchants to be welded
into the inner life of our empire, and that change recalls the
question, of what use is India to us ? We are no longer in
the dreamland of poetry and imagery, but living in the midst
of a pre-eminently practical age, and we, therefore, again ask
of what use is India to us ? Glorious as are the brilliant

INDIA. 147

scintillations of genius that sparkle over the pathway of
history, they are yet mere playthings when the struggle
of life deepens in its stern intensity, and when through the
mutterings of sorrow there rises the ever recurring question,
how are the people to find bread? It is from this point of
view that the great value of our Indian Empire can be best
estimated, and from this point of view let us see wither it
leads.

The conditions of the climate of India forbid our regard-
ing it as the normal home of any portion of our race ; on the
hill-side, up the mountain fastnesses and in the Himalayas
there may be parts that are suitable to our people, but as a
broad whole India belongs to the dark skinned races. But
India, with its area of 947,292 square miles and its population
of 135,000,000 of people, possesses a capacity for the absorp-
tion of our manufactures so enormously great, whilst the result
achieved is so infinitely little, that the circumstance challanges
our attention. At the present time the total of our export
trade to India is a little over 20 millions per annum, this
amount ranking with our exports to America or the Hanse
Towns. It seems an extravagant thing to say, but there
appears no tangible reason why our exports to India should
not be equal to our present commerce with the whole of
the world; and if they do not become so it will be our own
fault. A statement so broad as this requires some facts to
justify it, and some explanation of the grounds on which it is
founded. Let us place side by side two points, illustrative
of the variations in our exports, and note the teaching.
Previously to the outbreak of the Indian Mutiny our exports
to India amounted to £11,660,714, in the same year our
exports to Australia amounted £11,632,524; or in other
words, the exports to India and Australia were about equal,
whilst the population in India was one hundred times
greater than that of Australia, the approximate number

l2

148 INDIA.

in both cases being : India, 135,000,000, and Australia,
1,350,000. If, therefore, we can so stimulate commerce in
India that each individual could take from us one quarter the
amount that each individual in Australia now takes, the result
would be achieved.

Since the date of the comparison here instituted India has
passed under Imperial rule ; a larger force of Europeans has
been stationed in the Indian Empire, railways have been
built, and generally more activity infused into Indian life,
our exports have doubled themselves and we have, therefore,
so far started on the path of working the problem out, but
even at the present the amount is so utterly disproportioned
both to its area and population, that we are naturally driven
to seek the reason why.

The reasons are not difficult to find, they are expressed
in the two great causes — imperfect cultivation and imper-
fect communication. It is quite clear that, when a people
is pressed by want and subject to famines, when its
means for cultivating the land are utterly undeveloped,
their power of purchasing our manufactures must be re-
duced to the very lowest ebb. It is equally clear that so
long as the country has imperfect roads, no large im-
provement can take place, for each part will remain more
or less isolated and the conditions of trade will be feeble
and uncertain.

No error is more usual than that which associates with
India the idea of enormous wealth. The traditions of our
early conquests and the memory of our early successes have
tended to foster this belief. The barbaric splendour of her
princes, the hoarded lacs of rupees and the wonderful precious
stones have all tended to distort our view and cause us to
consider great wealth as the natural condition of life in
India. It is only when men of the world place their
experience plainly before us, and when the warnings of

INDIA. 149

famine, like that which occurred in Orissa, stand clearly out,
that we begin to recognise that India is very poor, but, she
is poor, whilst she possesses wondrous capacities and contains
within herself the elements of a boundless prosperity. In Mr.
Chapman's India is the following: —

" The several topics of the poverty of the people, famines,
" and the land-tax may be grouped together, from their
" actual or supposed connection with each other. That the
" bulk of the population of India is extremely poor is, I
" believe, a fact no longer concealed from us by the present
" or traditional splendour of its princes, or by the ruinous
"magnitude of the armies it formerly maintained. The
" consequences of this poverty, and the means of remedying
" it, require discussions which do not permit space for inquiry
" into its remote history ; but I may go so far as to express
" an opinion that it is by no means recently that India has
" fallen under this heavy disadvantage.

" Food, very scanty clothing, and often worse habitations,
" constitute at present the chief possessions of the majority of
" the Indian growers of cotton : a few hoarded rupees or
"jewels, and the means of making family shows, are the
** utmost of their hopes."

The implements of labor and the general ideas of the
people are in perfect harmony with this description, and a few
words place before us with almost photographic distinctness
this element of life in our Indian Empire.

" But in Western and Central India there are almost no
" machines for raising water ; certainly none moved by
" inanimate power. The wheel and pots, actuated by feet
" and hands of a man, and the direct pull of bullocks, in rais-
" ino; a leathern bucket from a well, seem to be all the devices
" in general use. As to the employment of wind or water for
" any such purpose, it seems never to have entered the

150 INDIA.

" imagination of any of the natives ; and a pump is altogether
" unknown in the interior except to a few as a curiosity."

But if this be true as to the ordinary habits of life, still
more instructive are the conditions connected with great
tracts of country which to-day retain their original character
in all their savage wildness. In some cases, one half of the
area is cultivated, in others one third, and in some cases one
thirtieth, these simple facts go to aid the explanation why we
export so little to our Indian Empire.

In the north-west provinces the total ai'ea assessed was
49,150,995 acres, of which 24,177,161 were under cultivation
during 1867 — 68. In the Punjaub the area is 106,768 square
miles, of which 32,432 are returned as cultivated, 32,780 as
culturable, and 39,556 as unculturable. The greater portion
of that mentioned as culturable is situated in tracts where the
rainfall is so scanty, that cultivation without irrigation would
be impossible. The central provinces are thus described :—
The south-eastern portion of the Nagpore Province is a
great wilderness : that to the north of the Indrawatty is
entirely uncultivated and uninhabited. The lower portion
is described as a primeval forest ; and, out of 114,718
square miles, which is the area of the province, 24,950
alone were cultivated. With regard to British Burmah it is
said : — " The total area of this province has been estimated
" at 90,070 square miles, of which one-thirtieth part is under
" cultivation." These extracts, taken from our Government
returns, will exhibit clearly the general characteristics of
large portions of our Indian Empire ; but the conclusion
derivable from it becomes all the more absolute when the
general state of cultivation and the general condition of the
life of the people rise fairly before us. If the absolute area
under cultivation is thus limited, we can understand how
forcibly these conditions will tell upon our export trade, but
still more will this be so when we recognise that the portion

INDIA. 151

which is cultivated is rendered of comparatively little value,
from the want of those sources of irrigation which are so
absolutely necessary in a climate like India. All authorities
are agreed that irrigation is the first necessity for successful
cultivation, and all authorities are equally agreed that the
means for carrying it out do not exist.

In some returns issued by the India Office, in July, 1869,
entitled Statistical Information with Reference to India, are
these remarks : — " One of the most important branches of the
administration of British India is that which is entrusted
with the development of the resources of the country by
means of public works. In a country like India the direct
aid of Government to industry is required for a variety of
purposes which in more advanced countries are sufficiently
and even better provided for by private enterprise. The
most important of these works are irrigation, by means of
which the land is rendered more fertile, and a certain
remedy is provided against the loss of crops during seasons
of drought, and communications which benefit not only the
staple produce of the country by providing means for its
export from the place of its production, but they also in a
like manner benefit the imports of the country, thus in-
directly stimulating the trade of other countries also."
In speaking of one portion of public works, and having
reference to one product of India, a writer of considerable
eminence adds : —

" If we look to any one measure of improved cultivation
" as more important in India, and yet of more difficult
''attainment than any other, we shall probably select irriga-
" tion. Nearly every experiment tends to show that, in
" some way or other, not yet much understood, the due
" supply of moisture, whether to the soil or the air, neither
" too much nor too little, nor at improper times, is an
" indispensable element in the means of a successful growth

152 INDIA,

" of cotton.' The natural advantages of the countries of suit-
" able temperature, both in India and elsewhere, which most
" cheaply produce cotton of acceptable qualities, seem to lie
" in a considerable degree in the fact, that their soil and
" climate fulfil, of themselves, this necessary condition in
" respect of moisture."

But what is so specially true of cotton is true of all other
kinds of vegetation. The various famines that from time to-
time decimate India are due to the fact that irrigation works
do not exist to supply the deficiency occasioned by long con-
tinued drought. The same writer adds : —

" But in the cotton-growing' countries of Central and
" Peninsular India, irrigation, to be practised in the months
" when it is most needed, must be effected by cheaply and
" readily lifting water from wells, or from the beds of rivers,
" from 30 to 100 feet below the surface to be irrigated ; a
" process of no great difficulty or expense, if suitable mechani-
" cal means were employed, especially where, as in many
" places, steady wind is mostly available. But there is no
" suitable skill in the country, — a deprivation the impoverish-
" ing consequences of which may be judged of when it is
" stated that irrigated lands, even in the districts near the
" Ghauts, pay three times as much tax, appeal' to afford ten
" or twelve times as much labour, and to yield twelve or
" fifteen times as much profit, as the same area without
" irrigation."

" The Concan is well known to grow little or no cotton ;
"but it does not clearly appear whether this is owing to
" natural disadvantages or to other causes. The remarkable
" success of Mr. Elphinston at Rutnageree, is said to prove
" that nothing can be done in that quarter without artificial

" irrigation But Mr. Elphinston, at Rut-

" nageree, by careful crossing produced cotton of remarkable
" excellence, while, by irrigation, which cost nearly half of

INDIA. 158

" the first year's total expense of cultivation, he obtained
"plants which eventually yielded a profit." — Chapman.

All this information points one way, that agriculture is
imperfectly carried out and that irrigation works are a pro-
found necessity. How, then, has the Indian Government
dealt with a question which they themselves recognise as of
paramount importance, both commercially and socially. The
details of the amount expended are here given : —

Statement of Sums allotted for Irrigation Works during the
past Six Years including State Outlay on Guaranteed and
aided Irrigation Works.

1864—65 - - - £510,322

1865—66 - - - 522,405

1866—67 - - - 645,482

1867—68 - - - 966,100

1868—69 - - - 1,205,100

1869—70 - - 1,777,397

If it were intended to turn the whole subject into ridicule,

nothing could be better fitted than these figures, and the

proportion they bear to other portions of Public Works in

India are worth noting. The following quotations are from

the Moral and Material Progress of India, Printed by Order

of the House of Commons.

" Public Works. — The expenditure on account of public
" works in the Lower Provinces exceeded a million pounds
" sterling, being considerably larger than in the preceding
" year. It may thus be classified : —

By the regular Public Works establishments £801,856
By civil officers in purchase of land for East
India Irrigation and Canal Company in
Cuttack ----- 11,582
By local establishments organized like the

regular establishments ... 103,008
And by civil officers ... 90,652

Total £1,007,098

154 INDIA.

" The aggregate expenditure in the province of Oude on
" account of public works during 1867-68 amounted to
"£237,753, of which £27,435 was on account of establish-
" ment. £93,800 were expended on civil works, and £116,517
" for military purposes. Among the former the largest items
" appeared under the heads of public buildings and com-
" munications such as roads and bridges. And under military
"expenditure that for barracks amounted to £90,871. A
" commencement was made last year towards the introduction
" of irrigation works into this province, for which object a
" staff of engineers had been appointed to survey the country
" and prepare a project for canals from the Sarda river."

Speaking of British Burmah : —

" The total sum expended in the province during 1867-68
" on Imperial works was £248,538. The cost of the establish -
"ment connected with the above expenditure being £34,952*
" The sum expended from local funds, including cost of
" establishment, was £52,420. The gross income received
" in cash in the Public Works Department was £5,742.

" There are no public works for irrigation purposes in
" this province, but a large area of land has been reclaimed
" from swamp by the erection of a bund in the Myan-Oung
" district. Communication is kept up between the Rangoon
" river and the Sittang by deepening a stream which connects
" the Sittang and Pegu rivers, and is called the Pyne-kune
" creek or canal."

These illustrations will suffice to exhibit the position
which irrigation holds in the midst of other public works,
and from the facts and figures now given some judgment
can be formed how little effort is made to meet this profoundly
important requirement.

In rough words, the expenditure on works of irrigation
may be considered as one million and a half per annum ;
how utterly inefficient such an amount is for carrying out the

[NDIA. 155

changes required over such an area as the peninsular of India,
in its present condition, will be obvious to all who look at
the facts for themselves. What value can flow to us, in a
commercial point of view, from an expenditure sp small that
it is utterly inappreciable when spread over a great empire ?
At our present rate of action, five hundred years hence
India may be properly irrigated, and our countrymen (if
they are then traders), receive the benefit of the operation ;
but as regards our present or our immediate future, the
whole thing is so trivial that its effects are utterly in-
appreciable. Yet the importance and need of more vigorous
efforts are recognised by the Indian Office itself, but the
difficulty of carrying out what is necessary arises from the
whole condition of Indian finance. At the present time it
requires all the care of clever men to establish a balance
between income and expenditure, and this difficulty will
be a permanent one so long as our great public works have
to be paid for out of income.

There is great necessity for us to recognise how absolutely
the poverty of the people re-acts upon, and limits, its trading
capacity. No matter wdiat the causes may be, so long as a
people remains poor so long will it be unable to purchase
largely of any manufactures. The first condition that stands
before us in our endeavours to develope the commerce of
India is that we must make India herself prosperous, for the
first essential of all trading is the means to pay for what is
bought, and this can only be done, in the present condition of
life in India, by large works of irrigation spread throughout
the country. The ordinary reply that will be made to this
is, that all such undertakings are best left to private enter-
prise, and such an answer would be true in connection
with ordinary trading transactions, but, under the special cir-
cumstances which surround our Indian Empire, the ordinary
commercial system would not effect the purpose required.

156 INDIA.

Some illustrations are here appended connected with private
enterprise.

" In the year 1859, a guarantee of interest on their capital
" was given to a company formed for the purpose of con-
" structing works of irrigation in the Madras Presidency;
" and in the following year a company was started to carry
" out works of a similar character in the Bengal Presidency ;
" without the aid of such assistance from Government, but
" the latter company having failed to raise the necessary
" capital for carrying out their works, have, since the com-
'• mencement of the present year, relinquished all their rights
" in those undertakings to the Indian Government in return
" for a repayment of the sums expended by them, together
" with a small additional amount as compensation to their
" officers, &c.

" With reference to the operations of the East India Irri-
" gation and Canal Company in Cuttack, a loan of £120,000
" was made to the company at the beginning of the year, to
" enable it to prosecute certain works which it was unable to
" carry out from want of funds." — Progress of India, 1869.

These two illustrations show, how, under the most advan-
tageous circumstances, private enterprise is unable to carry
through with success the works of irrigation that are known
to be required; and this occurs not on account of the works
themselves being unprofitable, but, because shareholders are
unwilling to embark in enterprises which are so far removed
from themselves and their ordinary habits of thought.

It is obvious, that enterprises of this kind would come into
existence, only when the probable profits would be sufficiently
large to cover all risks. But it is difficult to conceive that
it would be the sound policy of any Government, to permit
an organization which would be vital to the well being of
its people to pass from its own control to that of others
whose only motive could be the obtaining good interest

INDIA. 157

for their money. Beyond this it is quite obvious, that
such arrangements would lack the essential elements which
underlie the idea itself. There are many parts of India,
where irrigation works would be a lucrative investment ; but
there are other parts, where the results would be uncertain,
and where also the true value would come indirectly ; that
is, more from the increase of trade than by large dividends
from the works themselves. The result would, therefore,
be that certain portions of India would be irrigated by
Joint Stock Companies whilst the more remote parts would
be left in their present condition. There are also other
objections to such a system ; it would be fragmentary,
uncertain, and slow in its operations. Under these circum-
stances, the point desired to be achieved would utterly fail, for
the condition of our home manufactures requires, that an effort
should be made to develope our trade in connection with
India, both rapidly and decisively. For this there are no
means so certain as enabling the people to lift themselves
out of their present poverty by the aid of irrigation works
and good public roads. It will also follow that, by so aiding
them, we shall aid ourselves, for their demand for our manu-
factures would increase in proportion to their means of paying
for them.

Mr. Chapman, after giving some facts, adds : —
" From this instance it may be safely inferred that the
" readiness with which the natives of India, and even the
" lowest of them, fall into the use of manufactures, can
" hardly be exceeded in America ; and the facts further show
" that the use of our articles depends on our bringing into
" action the means of paying for them, by affording employ -
" ment to the waste energies of the country and people. It
" should also be noted that the natives of India in general
" are so much more advanced than the Goands here spoken
' ' of, that their appreciation of the comforts and conveniences

158 INDIA.

" of life is much more easily awakened, and might clearly be
" made to operate much more effectually in the establishment
'" and extension of commerce."

The necessity for large works of irrigation has now been
briefly stated, but irrigation, powerful and important as it
may be, is only one of the powers necessary to enable us to
develope the commercial prosperity of India. The condition
of the roads is one of equally vital importance and there are
some points connected with their present state which are
almost past belief. The special correspondent of the Times,
writes as follows : —

" Bengal, under the jurisdiction of a Lieutenant Governor,
" is of the size of France and Switzerland combined, and how
" many miles of metalled road do you think it has? Not 500,
" or to be more accurate 498. I mean in the rural districts.
" . . . . There is no Parish system in Bengal. There
"is no link between the district officer and the thousands of
" villages under him. Hence, if anything is to be done,
"Government must do it; if the people have no stocks of
" food as in Orissa, half-a -million may die before the Govern -
" ment can know it." — Times, Dec, 6th, 1869.

" The roads in the interior are mere tracks ; and even
" with important lines is this the case. In this matter the
" Deccan is probably not at all peculiar among native states."
— Moral and Material Progress of India.

" In estimating the effect of want of roads on our exports,
" it must be remembered that the disadvantage commonly
" applies not so much to the cost of conveying our manufac-
' ' tures inwards, as to that of bringing to the coast the heavy
" agricultural and other produce which is to pay for them ;
" and we shall see a few instances, both in America and India,
" where the effect is mitigated by the substitution of a lighter
" material of commerce. Notwithstanding, however, the
" occurrence of a few such instances, it must still be true, in

INDIA. 159

" general, that no country little advanced in the mechanical
' ' arts can pay for manufactures in other than crude and
" heavy produce ; and such a country can make little progress
" besides that which is permitted by the means it may possess
" of cheaply transporting that produce to more advanced
" countries and more thickly-peopled seats of consumption.
" This, which is true of all countries, is especially so of India :
" the subject matters of its export commerce, if that com-
" merce is to be much extended, must necessarily, for a long
" time to come, be of a coarse and ponderous character ; and
"by so much does its need of roads, and the effects of its want
" of them, afford a just parallel with the case of South
" America ; the apparent exceptions also to the operation of the
" principle in both cases confirm its general truth." — Chapman.

The advantages here pointed out are curiously upheld
by some remarks having reference to Mysore. The follow-
ing is an illustration — "£14,722 wTas expended during the
"past year, entirely upon village and district roads, with
" the exception of small sums for wells and trees connected
"with them; much good work has been done both in the
" past and previous years, and the direct benefit of these
" cross roads was reported to be of great value to all classes
" of the community, but particularly to landowners." —
— Moral and Material Progress of India.

" By affording easier and cheaper means of transport, and
" by consequently enabling industrial products to be sent
" to more distant markets, railways undoubtedly not only
" enable home-producers to obtain higher prices from foreign
" customers, but also give a new stimulus to home-produc-
" tion, causing fresh lands to be brought under cultivation,
" or to be planted or sown with more remunerative crops,
" and encouraging equally the extension of manufacturing
" mining, and miscellaneous industry. Two distinct incre-
" ments of national wealth are in consequence made, consist-

160 INDIA.

" ing, first, of enhanced receipts from abroad for part of the
'• previous aggregate of national produce ; second, of the
"entire net profits on the sale." — Chapman.

The importance of good roads is unequivocally clear,
for no large trade, either import or export, can be carried
on where they do not exist. Hitherto the considerations
have been directed to the influence that roads and irriga-
tion have upon the general productions of India and
the reflex action upon our export trade. But there is
one more view which deserves to be considered in the
possible value that India may be to ourselves and that is
the relation it bears to our cotton manufactures by the
growth of cheap cotton. At the outbreak of the cotton
famine, the cotton that India supplied to our market
immediately rose in value, and attention was also directed
to the question whether it would be possible to grow better
qualities. A number of experiments was made, and
generally the result desired was achieved ; but, even at the
present time, the power of India may be considered substan-
tially undeveloped. The following extracts will enforce this
view. Mr. Chapman, after discussing an area fitted for the
cotton plant, adds : —

" If one-half of it is occupied by mountain ranges,
" sites of towns, beds of rivers, and unsuitable soils, the
" other half contains 67,500 square miles, or 43,200,000 acres,
" applicable to the growth of cotton fit for English use. If
" one-fourth of this were cropped every year, and the produce
" were equal to the average of Guzerat and Candeish, or
" 100 lbs. per acre, the weight of the whole crop would
" be 1,080,000,000 lbs. per annum, or 2J times the entire
" quantity annually consumed by the manufactures of Great
" Britain, on the average of the thirteen years ending in
" 1846. But Indian cotton, of the quality at present supplied,
" is not suited to more than 75 per cent, of our manufactures,

INDIA. 1G1

" that is, we could take from India only 360,000,000 lbs.
"per annum out of the 480,000,000 lbs. we now work up;
" so that this part of India alone, being probably capable of
" producing 1,080,000,000 lbs. per annum, could grow for us
" three times as much as we could take, and could therefore
" amply and fully stock us, even if we had no other source of
" supply, except for the very fine varieties required by a
" small part of our manufactures."

A writer in the Cotton Supply Reporter (Mr. J. Login,
C.F., F.R.S.E.) also adds:—

" That of Egypt appears to me far in advance of anything
' I have seen in India, for, taking cotton as an example, one
" acre of properly irrigated land can produce eight or ten
" times as much cotton as the same area now produces in
" Northern India ; so that, without increasing the area under
" cotton cultivation, I believe, by the introduction of the
" Egyptian system of agriculture into India, the produce may
" be doubled or quadrupled, without it being necessary to re-
" duce the quantity of land required for food. I have no doubt
" at all that cotton in much larger quantities, and of a better
" quality, could be produced in India by an improved system
" of agriculture. What I would venture to suggest is, that
" a dozen or two of Egyptian cultivators should be selected
" and sent to the various provinces of India, to aid in bring-
" ing about an improved system of farming, as possibly the
" natives may be more willing to listen to their advice than
" to that of Europeans."

It would, therefore, appear that the capacity that India
possesses for producing raw cotton is practically unlimited.
As we can consume enormous quantities of this article
of her produce, India, in return, can consume enormous
quantities of our manufactured goods. The conditions by
which such a result can be achieved are still in the future ;
because those necessary elements, irrigation and good roads,

M

162 INDIA.

do not exist. So long as these conditions remain unfulfilled,
so long will it be that India will hold the inferior position
with regard to ourselves which she holds at the present
time.

All the points now referred to require, for their fulfil-
ment, Government aid; private enterprise, even at its best,
is inefficient and uncertain, and would deal only with minor
points and on no general plan. Whilst the power that
Government possesses to carry through any system is co-
equal with its own organization. In an article on India,
having reference to the idea that the large public works
should be carried out by government The Westminster
Review has the following : —

" Every one is familiar with the usual stock objections
" to Government interposition wherever it can be dispensed
" with. That the state should do nothing for the public
" which the public can do equally well for themselves, has
" almost passed into a proverb, and far be it from us to
"dispute the soundness of the maxim. On the contrary,
" we are ourselves inclined to carry the proposition to an
" extreme. To us the fostering of habits of self-help and
" self-dependance, appears such an important element in
" national education, that within certain, and those pretty
" wide limits, we should say, better for the public to do
" things badly for themselves than to have them well done
" by others. But in saying this it is essential, especially
" where the construction of public works is in question, to
" distinguish carefully between the integral public and its
" individual components, as well as between countries in
■' which the land belongs to individuals, and those in which
" — as in India, for example — the Government is the supreme
" landlord. Better, no doubt, that the inhabitants of a town
" or district in England, where the general principle of land-
" tenure is what it is, should make their own roads, docks,

INDIA 163

" bridges, gas-works, and water-works, than pay for having
" them made by the Central Government; but if the local
" community will not itself undertake their construction, it
"by no means follows that the next best thing is to leave
" them to be constructed as a commercial speculation by
" private adventurers. For with respect to public works, it
" is desirable, not only that they should be as suitable as
" possible for their special purposes, but that the public
" should have the use of them on the cheapest possible con-
" ditions, which they obviously cannot have if private specu-
*' lators are permitted to make profit by them; while without
" the prospect of profit speculators will not undertake them.
" That surely cannot be the best arrangement for the public
" under which public needs become the subject of private
** gain, under which individuals profit at the expense of the
*' general. Evidently it were better, if possible, that what-
" ever gain is made at the public expense should go back
" into the public purse,

" So soon as the doctrine that the land belongs to the
" people as a whole shall obtain complete recognition, road and
*' canal making, and irrigation on that gigantic scale which is
*' essential to eastern countries, will be found to be among
" the few important functions of Government, when restricted
*' to the proper sphere of its activity.

" The more attention is given to the question — Who
" ought to construct the public works ? — the more distinct
" we believe will be the answer that the duty rests with the
" Government. Assuming that political economists and
" statesmen will ultimately concur in this judgment, they
" will probably be also of opinion that whenever such works
" would undoubtedly yield a large indirect profit to the state,
" by developing and enriching it as a whole, they ought to
" be constructed even though they should fail to yield a
" direct profit on their cost and management."

m 2

1G4 INDIA.

There are some points connected with India about which
there can be very little doubt. There is no difference of
opinion that so long as a country remains imperfectly cul-
tivated, devastated by famine, and without roads, it must of
necessity be poor. These are the conditions of India to-day,
and they can only be removed by changing the circum-
stances that have produced them. If the first essential of
successful cultivation in India be large irrigation works,
as all competent authorities concur in asserting, it is
quite clear that, so long as these do not exist, imperfect
cultivation must be the rule. But if irrigation works were
erected throughout the entire of the Indian Empire, the
question would only be half answered : roads and railroads
are equally as imperative necessities, if India i3 to be
utilized to us as a great market for our manufactures. No
large advance in India can take place without improved
cultivation, and no large trade without improved roads : the
one is a complement of the other ; they are each good, but to
be fruitful to us in a commercial point of view, they must be
combined. A step has already been taken with reference to
the construction of railroads, but to what extent and on what
scale may be judged by the fact, that we have spent five times
as much money on railroads in England as we have engaged
to spend on the railway system of India.

The policy that governs a country must vary from time
to time and change as circumstances change. It may
have been that the policy which guided the old East India
Company was true and sound for their time and their cir-
cumstances, and they therefore could afford to reap their
harvest from a less anxious policy than what is needed now.
Placed as England is to-day, it has become of very high
importance that every power we possess, whether acquired
by military daring or built up by commercial prudence,
should be utilized for the good of the people at home. Our

INDIA. 165

colonies need no such consideration ; but we are placed where
the struggle of life deepens with an ever increasing intensity,
and where the need for work has made such a policy of ever
increasing importance. It is from this point of view that
India can largely aid us, for she can be made to absorb year
by year a larger amount of our manufactured goods. But
there is one point pre-eminently clear : we can only aid our-
selves by first aiding India; we can only create markets for
our goods by first creating the conditions by which they can
be paid for; and we can only create these conditions by a
large expenditure of public money on public work. The
probability that such expenditure will realize good interest
is borne out by the results which appear in connection with
our Indian railways. And the probabilities are still larger
in connection with those works that are the more immediate
agents in the production of national wealth.

The conditions here pointed out all lead to one conclusion :
the necessity on the part of Government to undertake this
responsibility. But the construction of vast public works will
require au entire change in the existing financial policy of
India. At the present time there appears a distinct objection
on the part of the Imperial Government to any loan being
contracted by the Indian Government. It appears to be
held that the various improvements that are required shall
take place by private enterprise or be paid for out of income;
and the consequence is that India must languish for want
of that money which now lies waste at home.

The present condition of our money market affords a
curious commentary upon this position. Lord Overstone,
in a late debate in the House of Lords, stated that the
absolute nett growth of capital was about 150 millions
annually; and sooner or later the question will arise, what
is to be done with it ? It is easy to find speculative
adventures and unsound investments; it is easy to lend to

166 INDIA.

defaulting governments and repudiating states, but it is
not so easy to find legitimate openings for investment,
that will yield a moderately large percentage and at the
same time be absolutely safe. It is not difficult to see that
in England we have already a plethora of capital, and that
the tendency is for that plethora to increase. In the first
place, money has now been for some years at a very low rate
of interest, and the great bulk, that has been taken from our
market, has been taken in foreign loans. In the next place,
it is equally clear that in 1866 the capital of the country was
more than equal to all its emergencies, and nearly four years
have gone by since then. If we then take Lord Overstone's
estimate as being right, we have had an accumulation of
capital of more than 500 millions since the panic, and under
existing conditions this accumulation is still going on.

It must also be recognised that so long as our export trade
continues at its present amount, the profit produced by it
will be nearly as large now as on any past occasion. The
same may be said with reference to the existing incomes of
those who hold realised property. The depression that now
exists will fall, as it has fallen, on the artisan, the shop-
keeper, and the manufacturer ; whilst the surplus incomes of
the wealthy will remain intact. We shall, therefore, have a
profit always accumulating and nearly as large, at the present
time, as it would be under more favourable circumstances ;
the difference being that in prosperous times all classes
benefit, whilst, under existing circumstances, only a limited
number, but that limited number is represented by the class
of capitalists.

It should also be remembered that the demand for
money at home in the future will be relatively small.
The capital necessary for building our railways, making
our docks, erecting our warehouses, constructing our ma-
chinery, and generally perfecting the conditions of our

INDIA. 167

working and social life, already exist and any demand in
the future in connection therewith must be limited. We
are in the position of a merchant with a workshop attached
to his house ; we have built and furnished our house, erected
and fitted our workshop, and constructed, in every way, the
arrangements necessary for our business and our living, and
the money that was required to put us in this position, when
once expended, does not require to be expended again ; very
little thought will show that such is substantially our case.
In the first place, since the introduction of our railway
system, we have spent over 480 millions of money in
perfecting it; but, once being finished, it will not require
rebuilding. The same may be said of our docks, ware-
houses, manufactories, dwelling-houses, &c. It is of course
quite true that a certain amount will be spent annually
in keeping the arrangements of our country in their proper
working order, but beyond this it would appear probable
we shall not have at home much employment in the
future for our savings. So that in the ordinary course of
events, with the accumulation of capital continuously going
on, we shall have a continually increasing mass of deposits,
which will seek employment and will have great difficulty in
finding it. If these illustrations be correct, we have capital
seeking outlets and India requiring capital. The question,
therefore, rises up : — Shall these two conditions be made
mutually beneficial to each other? Shall we elevate our
Indian Empire by the aid of English capital expended upon
large public works of commercial utility, carried out under
Government inspection and built by the aid of Government
loans; and by so doing help to renovate into fresh life our
now stationary export trade ?

1C8

RESUME.

At the outset of this book the question was asked, How are
the people to find work and food ? and this question is
forced upwards from the condition in which England stands
to-day. We have an enormous- pauper population, and
a population still greater just above pauperism. We have
an export trade that is stationary; a limitation in the
demand for labour through the introduction of machinery; a
decrease of employment through the force of foreign com-
petition, and, to intensify all these, we have a population
whose increase is at least six hundred per day. How are
these conditions to be dealt with ? It is idle and weak to
speak of the great wealth of England as a panacea for our
present evils, whilst starvation exists in our streets and
pauperism and destitution threaten to overwhelm us. The
weight of our present position is beginning to produce its
natural effect, and men, who are usually removed from the
impulses that guide public life, are looking around them and
saying, where is this to end? It is known that manufac-
turers are wasting the fortunes, which they had amassed in
the past, in the endeavour to keep on their mills at half-
time. It is known that every kind and every class of
employment are not only filled to overflowing, but the appli-
cants are hopeless in their endeavours to obtain work. In
the streets of London, men are to be found by thousands
who are ready to toil and cannot find the work to do,
and, as week passes week, fresh circumstances continually
crop up, showing that underneath all this, there are states
of destitution still more terrible; and it is thus, that the

RESUME. 1G9

question comes fairly home, how is this to end ? If the subject
be played with; if men fold their arms and look on; if they
say, as has been said before, that all this will right itself,
then the law of self preservation will be powerful enough
to sweep away the existing organization and place us face
to face with difficulties more profound and more real than
any that this country has ever had to contend with. The
difficulties of our position become all the more clear the more
closely they are viewed, and instead of being linked with
any individual or passing influence, the causes are general
and the results are general also.

In the earlier chapters of this book, the subject has been
briefly and rapidly traced out, with the facts on which it rests
and the evidence by which it is supported. What is the
broad teaching that it contains ? what are the causes of our
present position? and what is the conclusion to which it
points ? Plainly and clearly and past all questioning stands
the rough fact that we cannot feed ourselves ; equally
clearly, and equally definitely, stands up the second fact
that the numbers we cannot feed are ever largely on the
increase. These two truths represent the great elements
of the whole problem ; but the teachings they contain and
the consequences to which they lead are either not recog-
nised, or recognised with the lazy indifference with which
we regard unimportant facts. Yet they underlie our whole
commercial policy, will mould the conditions of our future,
and are vitally important, because the conditions that belong
to them will grow with an ever-increasing force. No man
doubts the broad fact that we cannot feed ourselves. It
has been accepted by Parliamentary Committees, made the
plea for large Inclosure Acts, and it caused the repeal of the
Corn Laws ; equally as little can it be doubted that this con_
dition is ever on the increase, for it is shown by the Registrar-
General's returns, and the ever increasing competition for

170 RESUME.

work. Day by day the tell-tale of our population mounts
higher, and its results are to be found in the increasing re-
quirements for foreign food. But at great Manchester meet-
ings men tabulate out this enormous increase, and appeal to it
a3 an evidence of the value of free trade ; whilst the facts
are that our imports of food have only the one meaning, viz :
we import that food which we cannot produce for ourselves.
The relation that food thus bears to our population makes
itself felt in a variety of ways : it changes the character of our
pauperism, the conditions of our destitution, and the price
of food itself; it also enforces the importance of our export
trade and the danger of foreign competition. All these cir-
cumstances, so apparently remote, are linked together by
the one tie, that our land cannot feed our people.

With respect to the first point, the state of our pau-
perism, it is so changed that it no longer represents its
original elements. The first poor law was based on the idea
that paupers were the idle and the worthless, and to such
a labour test was the natural limitation of help ; but to-day
men seek work and cannot find it, enfored idleness saps
energy, and thus it is they sink slowly down to pauperism.
The same may be said of destitution with even greater force :
that silent, hopeless, broken misery, which is too powerless
to create work, too feeble to force it, and too proud to beg —
that poverty which sinks, suffers, and dies; that destitution,
of all others the most fearful and the most real, also springs
from over population.

This influence of over population also manifests itself
in the ever advancing price of food: silently and steadily,
various kinds of produce are ever on the increase, and this
increase makes itself felt through various channels. It can
be traced through trade-nnion strikes, and the power of
foreign competition. When men struck for higher wages,
they made use of a plea at once vigorous and sound ; they

RESUME, 171

stated that they required more wages, because the money
would not purchase so much now as it would have purchased
some years ago, and it is thus that the claim for higher wages
has a moral basis and a political meaning. This advance in
the price of food becomes even more important, when we
trace the relation it bears to that struggle of continental
competition on which we are now entering. It is true that
England draws her corn from the granaries of the world,
and it is equally true that we reap an advantage by so
doing, for we have no longer the enormous fluctuations in
value to which corn was previously subjected. But when
those countries from which we draw our corn are also
entering into the race of manufactures with ourselves, it
is clear that they start with this condition of life in their
favour, for they only sell to us their surplus food. We
must therefore recognise that some portion of their power
of competition, depends upon circumstances which we are
powerless to change. All men will agree that throughout
the Continent the means of living are cheaper than they are
with us ; if we add to this, better climatic conditions, greater
abundance of food and less density of population, we have
the explanation why wages are lower on the Continent, and
why, even under equal conditions of life, Belgian cottons and
Prussian iron can be sold cheaper than our own. This
continental competition which is now growing so rapidly,
and which will grow still more rapidly in the future, is
produced by the same influences as those that affect us at
home — increase of population. The whole of Europe is
becoming more densely peopled, and the density of popula-
tion is awakening a fiercer struggle for life, and from this
comes competition in our various manufacturing products.
It is important for us to recognise that France, Belgium,
Germany, and other countries can manufacture more cheaply
than we can, and it is still more important that we should

172 RESUME.

clearly recognise the reason why this is and the probability
that exists of its increase.

It has been suggested, that the way to meet the difficulties
incidental to foreign competition is to impose duties on
foreign goods and to insist upon the principles of reciprocity,
but any attempt to deal with this difficulty through the in-
fluence of protection would be idle and worthless. It is possi-
ble that heavy import duties would help that portion of labour
which belongs to our home manufactures, but such duties
would help labour at the cost of the whole nation. Beyond
this the result would be altogether trivial when compared
with the total manufactures of our country; and it is quite
clear that, in the open markets of the world, protection could
have no existence, Our struggle for life is not limited to the
area of the British Isles, for our commerce stretches over the
whole globe and has to compete in all markets. And the
warnings, that now rise from the pressure round our very
firesides, will tell us how the force of the same competition
will be, sooner or later, co-equal with our commerce. Let
us then carefully consider the whole question. Let us
recognise, that we are in the midst of a dilemna which
springs from a surplus population, ever on the increase,
and pressing every day more severely on the means of life.
Let us also recognise that this difficulty is still further in-
tensified by the existence of a foreign competition, that is not
only large in the present, but promises to increase with still
greater force in the future. And let us recognise still fur-
ther that this clement of foreign competition grows not only
by the pressure of population in France, Belgium, and
Germany, and by the advantages of food, position and
climate, but also by those accumulations of capital that
are now to be found on every large exchange in Europe.

How then are we to meet these difficulties, and which
way is our position drifting? To answer these questions we

RESUME. 173

must recognise where we have been and where we now
are. A century ago it would have been possible for us
to have shut ourselves up in our island home, and lived
utterly excluded from the outside world. The land then
yielded sufficient produce to feed the then existing popula-
tion. To-day the case is so utterly changed that we
are dependent upon other parts of the world for one-half of
our food: the difference between these two conditions marks
the change between the past and the present. In the past
we were dependent upon the yield of our own soil alone for
the food that we ate, and our export trade was simply
the exchange of superfluities. To-day, our numbers are
more than the land can feed, and we are therefore dependent
upon the amount of our export trade to pay for the extra
food we require. Unless our export trade grows with the
growth of our population, we shall have the destitution, misery
and death that we have in our land to-day ever increasing.

There are men who so utterly misunderstand this relation,
that they point to this expansion of our export trade as
though it were the embodiment of all success, and they see
in its enormous growth a theme on which their fancy
can dilate. But when it is reduced to the hard realism of
life, the growth of our export trade simply means, that there
have been so many more people to work and so much more
work has been done. It will therefore follow that the
continuous increase of our export trade is as much a matter
of necessity as the increase of our importations of food are
necessary to feed our ever increasing people. We may be
gratified when our export trade expands, because its ex-
pansion indicates that the people have employment, and
we may be equally warned when it ceases to expand, for
then the people will starve. The conditions of the question
will, therefore, resolve themselves thus : in the past we fed
ourselves entirely from our own land; in the present we

174 RESUME.

feed ourselves partly from the land and partly by the aid of
our export trade. What are the probabilities that surround
our future, and how can the necessary balance he maintained
in the face of a rapidly growing population ?

The answer to this question is, that we can keep the
balance either by the continuous expansion of our export
trade or by reducing the number of our people by the aid of
emigration. But to arrive clearly at our conclusions, we
must ascertain by what means our trade has grown in the
past, and which of these causes can be depended upon for
its growth in the future ? Also, what is the condition of our
colonies at the present time

Let any man turn to the map in this book and note how
our export trade has grown: at times it remains stationary
for years and then springs forward, it once more becomes
stationary, then again advances. "What is the explanation
of such phenomena? It is to be found in the action of
special causes. For instance — it cannot be doubted that the
discovery of gold in California and Australia developed our
export trade, and equally as little can it be doubted that
the introduction of the railway system brought people into
more intimate relations and developed commerce. Beyond
these, the effect of wars and exhibitions is to bring people
into more intimate relations, and so to lay the foundation
for increased trade. That wars exercise such influence
upon trade is a matter of reasoning, but the teachings
derivable from our exports to France, Turkey, Russia, India
and China, in connection with our military operations, all
seem to point to the conclusion that the reflex action of war
is to increase trade. Our exhibitions were also constructed
on the thought that, by bringing together the various nations
of the world to exhibit their special productions, we should
increase trade, and the results that followed appear to uphold
it. New markets and speculative manias have also aided

RESUME. 175

this result. But the question here arises, how many of
the same influences can we reckon upon for our future trade?
Exhibitions have ceased to be novel; Gold Discoveries no
longer create their first enthusiasm; the Kailway System in
Europe has produced its first great changes, and the revo-
lution of thought and life it introduced will grow slowly in
the future. War happily is becoming every day more depre-
cated, and every day less probable. New markets come
but rarely, and the results of our speculative manias have
caused men to dread rather than respect them. All these
causes — causes which were powerful in our past for the rapid
growth of our export trade — afford us but little hope for
the future, and there appears no reason to anticipate that
we shall be able to awaken analogous powers to supply
their places without making distinct efforts for ourselves.

There are some who so misconceive the whole question as
to assert with strange pertinacity, that the entire of the increase
of our past trade has been due to the action of free trade,
but the facts do not warrant this. All men are more or
less agreed in the general truth of Free Trade doctrines ; and
placed as England is to-day, free trade is her soundest policy ;
but the endeavour to build up the whole of the wonderfully-
complex relations of trade by one simple idea, is as futile
as it is unreal. If free trade were the all powerful element
that its too enthusiastic advocates would make it, how comes
it that trade ever slackens ? How comes it that America, with
an excessively high tariff, continues to import ever increasing
quantities of foreign manufactures 1 The answer, as a matter
of free trade reasoning, is difficult to find, but as a matter of
every day common sense it is clearly on the surface. Our
trade grew during the last twenty years because new stimu-
lants were applied from time to time, and it has ceased to
grow because no new stimulant is forthcoming. Let any man
look at the figures from 1848 and see how the trade grew ;

17f> RESUME.

not gradually, but by bounds; and note also, when it thus
rebounded, some definite and known causes are clearly re-
sponsible for the result. Let any man again look at the totals
of our export trade from 1815 to the present time and he will
then see that until 1848 it never definitely grew, It varied
from year to year, but its changes were changes only ; our
exports in 1815, 1840 and 1848 are substantially the same.
It would take too long to trace out the conditions of the
earlier times referred to, but it may be broadly stated, they
are removed from the question of protection duties. With
regard to high tariffs in America they act there as they
act everywhere else, they check consumption and they
check it to the extent that the price of the goods is in-
creased by the duty. This influence is lessened when a
population is rapidly increasing both in numbers and pros-
perity, as is the case in America to-day, and under the
special circumstances in which that country is placed the
question of import duties has a different significance from
what it has with ourselves. With us, any modifications
that we can make in our import duties, so as to stimulate
foreign trade will be the best course open to us. If our home
territory were large enough to feed our population, our de-
pendence on foreign countries would cease, and the question
of the importance of our foreign trade would be reduced to
the very smallest dimensions. But such a condition not
being possible, we are driven to consider by what means we
can increase our future trade.

It is important for us to remember, that the necessity that
our trade shall grow with increased force in the future is
proved by conditions not at first sight on the surface. Not
only is it true that foreign competition is growing with great
rapidity ; not only is machinery lessening the demand for
labour; but the construction of our great public works which
has hitherto afforded employment to a large number of

RESUME. 177

our labouring- classes, may be considered as completed,
and this source of employment will, therefore, exist no
lono-er. The combination of these causes render more
imperative the necessity that new channels for our com-
merce and new arrangements for dealing with our surplus
population should be brought into action. "What those
arrangements could become will be more apparent when we
trace out the possibilities and powers of our Colonial Empire.
Our Colonial Empire, exclusive of India, has been reckoned
as one-quarter of the world, and now contains a population
of about ten millions. It is found, that this colonial popu-
lation absorbs, at the present time, a large and continually
increasing quantity of our exports, and that any large
accession to their numbers, by way of emigration, causes
a direct increase in the amount. The facts connected with
our export trade to Australia and California arising from the
emigration to these countries, may be considered conclusive
proofs of such results ; and it would therefore appear, that
any course of action, which will develope emigration, will
also develope our export trade. It may, therefore, be said,
that the first element out of which to build up an increasing
commerce exists within ourselves, for we can stimulate emi-
gration as we will. It is found that this increase in our
exports is always greater in connection with emigration to
our colonies than with that to America or elsewhere. It
would, therefore, appear that it will be to our advantage
that the current of our emigration should be directed to the
finest portions of our Colonial Empire. The value of emi-
gration, both to the colonies and ourselves, is accepted as
an established truth, and the desire is generally expressed
for its increase. But as to the manner in which it shall be
carried into effect there is large divergency of opinion. On
the one side there are those who insist that, in the existing
conditions of society, emigration should be carried out by

N

178 RESUME.

means of State aid ; whilst, on the other side, there are
those who insist that the ordinary influences of life are
equal to all emergencies, and it would therefore be unwise
to interfere in any way. The question is, which of these is
right? The advocates of State aid reply to the doctrine of
our allowing things to work themselves out, that such a
course would be productive of profound misery, and they
point to the past conditions connected with Ireland as an
illustration of the truth of their opinions; and whea under
such circumstances the people died by hundreds of thousands.
Such a course may have been palliated by the teachings
of political economy, but it was not statesmanship. If
this result were true of Ireland twenty-four years ago the
truth is equally pregnant with warning for our own land
to-day, since we have in the midst of us a population of one
million of paupers and another population of two or three
millions of people but one step above pauperism, whilst the
trade by which they are fed is stagnant and waning. Leave
these conditions alone, let the problem work itself out,
give no help : and what must follow — starvation or revolu-
tion. The one is the dictum of political economy, the
other has an uglier name.

It would be undesirable, that any such results should
come to pass whilst the means to avoid them are at our com-
mand, and these means are at our command in the proper
use of our Colonial Empire. In it we have the elements out
of which can be woven a great social and a great political
triumph. On the one side we have land lying useless,
myriads of acres waiting to be tilled. At home, we
have an enormous surplus population, crushed by sorrow
and want, lying hid in dingy courts and close alleys, and
ever generating and dispensing the elements of physical and
social disease. So long as they remain with us, so long
will these conditions intensify, until at last, by the mere

RESUME. 179

magnitude of the danger, we shall be driven to face the
question whether we will or no. Let us at the same time
recognise that these very elements, so prolific with evil, —
evil alike for themselves and others, are the very elements out
of which good can be woven. The circumstances by which
such a result can be achieved are plainly before us. Let us
bridge over the ocean that lies between ourselves and our
colonies ; let us place the labour that is useless here on the
land that is useless there, and the danger that now menaces
us, and the sorrow and want that now surround us would
cease of themselves. To effect this result thoroughly and
efficiently, Government aid is required; for Government
alone has either power or knowledge sufficient to deal with
so great a subject. The plea that individual energy, private
benevolence, or parish organisation should be left to work the
result out is a mere evasion of the difficulty, and not a solution
of it, for even at their best they would fail. Individual
energy is crushed out in those cases where men are steeped
in poverty and utterly broken down; private funds already
slacken and, at their greatest strength, are utterly inade-
quate to the magnitude of the necessity; and parish organis-
ation has neither knowledge of nor association with, our
colonies sufficiently large, to enable them to deal with the
question as a whole. Government, on the contrary, has
all these points, and so soon as it gets over the mental
difficulty, and recognises that it is at once its wisdom and
duty to undertake it, all other difficulties will disappear. It
is not necessary to discuss the various suggestions that are
supposed to be involved in the idea of Government aid.
The vital question is, is such a step necessary ? The answer
to this is to be found in the one fact that we have an annual
increase of population of more than two hundred thousand
persons for whom no work exists at the present time, and
for which there is no probability of work in England in the

n 2

180 RESUME.

future ; this one condition affords the explanation of the need
for Government aid.

The objections, that have been raised, spring from views
of the relation between Government and people that belong
essentially to the past ; the traditional ideas remain, even
when the spirit is dead, and it is thus we have disinclination
or apathy, even when no clear reason can be given. But
as we have now arrived at a period when a Government
may be supposed to represent the necessities of a people, the
probability is very large, that under the pressure of events,
the mode in which this subject will be viewed will undergo
a marked change. TVTe shall have the question of Govern-
ment aid to emigration first ignored, then discussed, and
finally passing into the condition of an accepted necessity.
Common-sense suggests its prudence and its value, for it is
clearly wise, that the aid given to those, who cannot help
themselves, should be such as will place them in a position
where they will be enabled to earn their own living and
where they can also indirectly aid our manufactures; and
by no means can this be done so efficiently as by aid to
emigration. There are also large reasons why this question
should not be considered or treated as a local one. Our poor,
concentrate where they may, are the poor of the nation;
special circumstances may have driven them into special
localities, but questions of parish arrangements lose their
significance in the face of great national difficulties like
those of the present, and we are thus entitled to ask that
the question shall be dealt with as a whole, and not in detail.
Under our present conditions such a course becomes at
once a necessity and a policy : a necessity to remove from
our shores that labour which vainly seeks for work ; and a
policy because emigration would not only relieve us from
our surplus population, but would at the same time develope
and increase our export trade.

RESUME. 181

The idea of Governmental interference has yet another
arena, the condition of our Indian dependency calls loudly for
its exercise. Without challenging either the wisdom or justice
of the rule of the East India Company, there are yet some
broad facts clear. For nearly a century a large portion of
our existing territory has been under their rule, and yet India
to-day is so undeveloped that her capacity to absorb our manu-
factures is at a very low ebb, and it is at this low ebb because
the means for cultivation, such as works of irrigation, are
imperfect ; and the means for communication, such as good
roads, are imperfect also. Their is no denial of the fact that
India is very poor, and there is equally little denial of the
cause from which that poverty springs. It is accepted on
all sides that the imperfect condition of her agriculture,
the paucity of irrigation works, and the absence of good
roads, are the more immediate causes of the poverty of the
people. It may be assumed that it is to us a wise policy to
stimulate the wealth of the natives of India — altogether
apart from any question of humanity or good government,
because in stimulating the material well-being of the natives
of India, we create the means by which our own manu-
factures can be purchased. The present condition of India
is so remote from its possible capabilities that we can
only speculate as to what it might have been under
different circumstances. How far the East India Company
is responsible for these defects, and how far it is our duty to
see that they are removed, will depend upon the view that
may be taken of the functions of government. If it be
considered that our position in India is simply to rule, that
is, to maintain our position and uphold our status as the
conquerors, then roads are mere military necessities, and
irrigation works are of very dubious advantage. But if our
position is to govern India, and to govern her so that we can
elevate her people by developing their material resourses,

182 RESUME.

and aid ourselves by creating new markets for our manufac-
tures ; in such case, large expenditure by Government on
internal improvements is a profound necessity. If these
conditions be carried out, India, with her myriads of people,
will grow rapidly in wealth, and the consequence will
.be, that her power to absorb our manufactures will grow
rapidly also. With India thus growing, and with our
Colonial Empire absorbing our surplus population and each
year consuming larger quantities of our goods, the means
by which we can solve our present difficulty appear fairly
before us.

The condition of our country is fast changing, and we
are on the eve of a new national life. Through much
bloodshed and through many changes we have built up our
position of to-day, and noble as it is, it is yet chequered with
danger and full of warning. It is true, that our export trade
has grown in the past with sufficient rapidity to meet our
necessities, but there have been times, when, from the fact
of its not so growing, enormous misery and wide spread
destitution has been the result. Such was the state of
our country from 1836 to 1846, those ten years spoke of
bread riots, discontent and sedition, and we must not shut
our eyes to the fact, that since then we have passed through
strange and stirring episodes. Some twenty years ago the
Bank of England was fortified, and London in the possession
of the military; it was believed that the phantom of revolution
that had swept over Continental life would be re-awakened in
our own streets. The danger was imminent; for political dis-
content was surging through the land; chartist orators roused
the people to a sense of their misery and the mutterings of
revolution swept far and wide, and all this was so, because
trade was slack and poverty was everywhere ; these con-
ditions are once more reappearing, and will once more
produce the same results. It may be said that history

RESUME, 183

chronicles our military triumphs, reproduces our state treaties
and dwells upon our royal pageants; but its real life lies far
lower, it is to be found in that silent growth of thought
that moulds our institutions and builds up the fabric of
human society, and it is thus that the well being of the people
to-day becomes one of vital importance. Everywhere the
conditions are unsound and unsatisfactory, poverty is stalking
through the land, and hunger, that great teacher in the past,
is also the great teacher in the present. The wild upheav-
ing of the first French revolution, which changed the entire
structure of European society had its origin in the same cause;
the want of bread. The warnings long preceded the event,
the passionate teachings of Rousseau and the bitter sarcasms
of Voltaire were bandied from mouth to mouth, and spread
throughout the land, because they appealed to existing sor-
rows, and the people who knew the depth of their own
misery, clung with passionate intensity to that teaching,
which promised a better future.

We too have had the teachings that were to regenerate
society ; and these panaceas appeared in Chartism, Socialism
and Land Schemes ; how far these ideas were true, how far
worked out, and how far opposed to the profoundest elements
of human life does not now matter, they were taught and
they were believed. That this could have been possible
marked clearly the state of the people at that time — marked
their sorrow and their poverty. That danger passed away
through the influence of an accident. The discovery of gold
in California and Australia and the consequent vivid awaken-
ing of our export trade found work for the people, and it
was under such influences that the dogmas of political
theorists and the dreams of philanthropists and philosophers
sank to their natural level. Under such influences the
thought of the people passed from the questions of revo-
lution to the construction of trades' unions and building

184 RESUME.

societies. Once more we have lived past our prosperity,
and once more we stand in the position, where our trade is
checked whilst life is rapidly on the increase, and where,
through such adverse conditions, we are drifting back to the
same point once more to re-awaken our old discussions.
To-day the indications are everywhere around us, they may
be found in the uneasiness of society, in the special discus-
sions that now press forward in politics, in the broad and
often repeated assertion, that the land is the heritage of
the people, and that our national success is the success
of the few and not the success of the many. All these
signs are signs of warning, and it is well for us to note
their meaning. We are all too apt to forget how slight
is the structure of our past success, and how short is the
time that separated us from great danger — our commercial
greatness is limited by about twenty years — and immediately
behind that time, arose the threat of revolution. It is true
that we lived that difficulty down as we should have lived
down a greater, but the teaching is none the less real. Since
then we have had the vision of universal peace paraded before
us and the assertion that England would grow to be the
workshop of the world. That dream is already a dream of the
past: war has made itself felt, other nations have entered the
race, and although we are still the great traders of the world,
the singularity of our position has gone. America, Germany,
France, Switzerland and Belgium are all competing with us
in every market, and it is therefore necessary for us to note
the change of our circumstances and mould our position
into accordance with them. It is true that in the open race
we are no longer alone, but it is equally true that we have
still enormous advantages over all other nations and these
advantages only require utilizing to enable us once more to
bound forward in our career, and to distance all compe-
tition. Those advantages are to be found in the value

RESUME. 185

of our Indian dependency and in the enormous area of our
Colonial Empire. Let us but aid India in accordance wit It
her requirements; let us but weld together our colonies so
as to form them into an integral part of our empire, let us
but utilize that money which now lies idle in our markets,
or seeks outlets in foreign loans ; let us but aid emigration
largely, freely and with well planned schemes, and the
growth of our commercial prosperity will be greater than the
most enthusiastic dreamer could picture. But these con-
ditions require energy, decision and care, those great
elements of English character, never more conspicuous
than when most required.

THE END.

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