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JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC

, v--

.JAPAN & THE NORTH PACIFIC.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC, J; ,

AND

A JAPANESE VIEW OF THE
EASTERN QUESTION.

MANJIRO INAGAKI, B.A.

(Cantab]

WITH MAPS

T FISHER UNWIN

.PATERNOSTER SQUARE

JMDCCCXC

DS5

JOHN ROBERT SEELEY M.A. HON. LL.D.

Regius Professor of Modern History
Fellow of Gonville and Cams College

Cambridge
THIS BOOK IS RESPECTFULLY

DEDICATED

IN GRATEFUL ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF HIS KINDNESS
AND IN ADMIRATION OF HIS QUALITIES AS A

HISTORIAN
15Y THE AUTHOR

31305

PREFACE.

I FEEL that some explanation is due when a
Japanese ventures to address himself to
English readers ; my plea is that the matters
on which I write are of vital importance to
England as well as to Japan. Though I feel
that my knowledge of English is so imperfect
that many errors of idiom and style and even
of grammar must appear in my pages, yet I
hope that the courtesy which I have ever
experienced in this country will be extended
also to my book.

My aim has been twofold : on the one
hand, to arouse my own countrymen to a
sense of the great part Japan has to play in
the coming century ; on the other, to call the

io PREFACE.

attention of Englishmen to the important
position my country occupies with regard to
British interests in the far East.

The first part deals with Japan and the
Pacific Question : but so closely is the latter
bound up with the so-called Eastern Question
that in the second part I have traced the
history of the latter from its genesis to its
present development. Commencing with a
historical retrospect of Russian and English
policy in Eastern Europe, I have marked
the appearance of a rivalry between these
two Powers which has extended from Eastern
Europe to Central Asia, and is extending
thence to Eastern Asia and the Pacific. This
I have done because any movement in Eastern
Europe or Central Asia will henceforth infal-
libly spread northwards to the Baltic and
eastwards to the Pacific. An acquaintance
with the Eastern Question in all its phases
will thus be necessary for the statesmen of
Japan in the immediate future. I have con-
fined my view to England and Russia
because their interests in Asia and the North
Pacific are so direct and so important that

PREFACE. ii

they must enter into close relations with my
own country in the next century.

I cannot claim an extensive knowledge of
the problems I have sought to investigate,
but it is my intention to continue that
investigation in the several countries under
consideration. By personal inquiries and
observations in Eastern Europe, the United
States, Canada, Australia, China, and the
Malay Archipelago, I hope to correct some
and confirm others of my conclusions.

I have to thank many members of the
University of Cambridge for their help
during the writing and publication of my
book. To Professor Seeley especially, whose
hints and suggestions with regard to the
history of the eighteenth century in particular
have been so valuable to me, I desire to
tender my most hearty and grateful thanks.
To Dr. Donald Macalister (Fellow and
Lecturer of St. John's College) and Mr.
Oscar Browning, M.A. (Fellow and Lecturer
of King's College) I owe much for kindly
encouragement and advice and assistance in
many ways, while I am indebted to Mr. G.

12 PREFACE.

E. Green, M.A. (St. John's College), for his
labour in revising proofs and the ready help
he has given me through the many years in
which he has acted as my private tutor.

The chief works which I have used are
Professor Seeley's " Expansion of England,"
Hon. Evelyn Ashley's " Life of Lord
Palmerston," and Professor Holland's
''European Concert in the Eastern Ques-
tion." The latter I have consulted specially
for the history of treaties.

M. INAGAKI.

CAIUS COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE,
April, ,1890.

CONTENTS.

PART I.

PAGE

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC . 21

England and Asia — The Persian war — The Chinese war —
Russian diplomacy in China— Singapore and Hong Kong
— Labuan and Port Hamilton — Position of Japan ; its
resources — Importance of Chinese alliance to England —
Strength of English position in the Pacific at present —
Possible danger from Russia through Mongolia and
Manchooria — Japan the key of the Pacific ; her area
and people ; her rapid development ; her favourable posi-
tion ; effect of Panama Canal on hercommerce — England's
route to the East by the Canadian Pacific Railway —
Japanese manufactures — Rivalry of Germany and England
in the South Pacific — Imperial Federation for England and
her colonies — Importance of island of Formosa — Compara-
tive progress of Russia and England — The coming struggle.

PART II.

THE EASTERN QUESTION.
i.

FOREIGN POLICY OF ENGLAND DURING THE SIX-
TEENTH, SEVENTEENTH, AND EIGHTEENTH
CENTURIES 73

The vSpanish Empire, its power, and its decline — Com-
m ercial rivalry of England and Holland — The ascendency

14 CONTENTS.

of France ; threatened by the Grand Alliance — The
Spanish succession and the Bourbon league — England's
connection with the war of the Austrian succession — The
Seven Years' War — Revival of the Anglo-Bourbon struggle
in the American and Napoleonic wars.

II.

FOREIGN POLICY OF RUSSIA DURING THE REIGNS

OF PETER, CATHERINE, AND ALEXANDER . 95

Peter the Great, and establishment of Russian power on
the Baltic — Consequent collision with the Northern States
and the Maritime Powers — Catherine II. and Poland —
First partition — Russia reaches the Black Sea — Russo-
Austrian alliance against Turkey opposed by Pitt — Second
and third partitions of Poland — Rise of Prussia — Alexander
I. and the conquest of Turkey — Treaty of Tilsit — Peace of
Bucharest — Congress of Vienna — French influence in the
East destroyed.

III.

THE NEW EUROPEAN SYSTEM . . . .116

The concert of the Great Powers ; its aims — It does not
protect small states from its own members, e.g., Polish
Revolution — How far can it solve the Turkish question ?

IV.

GREEK INDEPENDENCE 122

The Holy Alliance — The Greek insurrection — Interference
of the Three Powers — Battle of Navarino — Treaty of
Adrianople — The policy of Nicholas I. ; Treaty of Unkiar
Ikelessi — Turkey only saved by English and French aid —
Palmerston succeeds to Canning's policy.

CONTENTS. 15

FAGR

THE CRIMEAN WAR . . . . . .133

Nicholas I. alienates France from England by the
Egyptian question — Mehemet Ali and Palmerston's con-
vention against him — Nicholas I. in England — The Pro-
tectorate of the Holy Land ; breach between Russia and
France — Proposed partition of Turkey — War of Russia
and Turkey — The Vienna Note — Intervention of France
and England to save Turkey — Treaty of Paris ; Russia
foiled — Correspondence between Palmerston and Aberdeen
as to the declaration of war — National feeling of England
secures the former's triumph — French motives in joining in
the war.

VI.

THE BLACK SEA CONFERENCE . . . .166

French influence destroyed by the Franco-Prussian War —
Russia annuls the Black Sea clauses of the Treaty of Paris
— Condition of Europe prevents their enforcement by the
Powers — London Conference ; Russia secures the Black
Sea ; England's mistake — Alsace and Lorraine destroy the
balance of power.

VII.

THE Russo-TuRKiSH WAR OF 1878 . . .174

Bulgarian atrocities — The Andrassy Note ; England de-
stroys its effect — The Berlin Memorandum ; England
opposes it — Russia prepares for a Turkish war — Conference
of Constantinople — New Turkish Constitution — Russo-
Turkish War — Treaty of San Stefano — Intervention of the
Powers —The Berlin Congress — Final treaty of peace.

VIII.

REMARKS ON TREATY OF BERLIN . . . 197

The position of affairs — The Salisbury-Schouvaloff Memo-
randum and its disastrous effect on the negotiations at

16 CONTENTS.

PAGE

Berlin — Russia's gain — England and Austria the guardians
of Turkey — Austria's vigorous and straightforward Balkan
policy — Thwarted in Servia but triumphant in Bulgaria —
Relations of Greece to Austria — Solution of the Crete
question — Neutrality of Belgium threatened — Importance
of Cohstantinople to Russia ; the Anglo-Turkish Conven-
tion— England's feeble policy in Asia Minor — The ques-
tion of Egypt — A new route to India by railway from the
Mediterranean to Persian Gulf — England's relation to Con-
stantinople.

IX.

CENTRAL ASIA 229

Rise of British power in India — Rivalry of France — Aims
of Napoleon — Russian influence in Central Asia — Its great
extension after the Crimean War — And after the Berlin
Congress — Possible points of attack on India — Constanti-
nople the real aim of Russia's Asiatic policy — Recent
Russian annexations and railways in Central Asia — Re-
action of Asiatic movements on the Balkan question —
Dangerous condition of Austria — Possible future Russian
advances in Asia — England's true policy the construction
of a speedy route to India by railway from the Mediter-
ranean to the Persian Gulf — Alliance of England, P' ranee,
Turkey, Austria, and Italy would effectively thwart
Russian schemes.

LIST OF MAPS.

1. JAPAN AND THE NORTH PACIFIC . . Frontispiece

2. THE PACIFIC AND ITS SEA-ROUTES . . 46

3. THE EXPANSION OF RUSSIA IN EUROPE . . 97

4. EASTERN EUROPE AND WESTERN ASIA „ . 115
5- THE EXPANSION OF RUSSIA IN ASIA . . ,233

PART I,
JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

PART I.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

England and Asia — The Persian war — The Chinese war
— Russian diplomacy in China — Singapore and Hong'
Kong — Labuan and Port Hamilton — Position of
Japan ; its resources — Importance of Chinese alliance
to England — Strength of English position in the
Pacific at present — Possible danger from Russia through
Mongolia and Manchooria — Japan the key of the Pa-
cificj her area and people ; her rapid development ;
her favourable position; effect of Panama Canal on
her commerce — England's route to the East by the
Canadian Pacific Railway — -Japanese manufactttres —
Rivalry of Germany and England in the South Pacific
— Imperial Federation for England and her colonies —
Importance of island of Formosa — Comparative pro-
gress of Russia and England — The coming struggle.

WITHOUT doubt the Pacific will in the coming
century be the platform of commercial and
political enterprise. This truth, however,
escapes the eyes of ninety-nine out of a
hundred, just as did the importance of Eastern

22 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Europe in 1790,. and of Central Asia in
1857. In the former case England did not
appreciate the danger of a Russian aggression
of Turkey, and so Pitt's intervention in the
Turkish Question failed. It was otherwise
in the second half of the nineteenth century,
when the Crimean War and the Berlin
Congress proved great events in English
history. In 1857 the national feeling in
England was not aroused as to the import-
ance of defending Persia from foreign attack.
Lord Palmerston had written to Lord
Clarendon, Feb. 17, 1857, " It is quite true,
as you say, that people in general are
disposed to think lightly of our Persian War,
that is to say, not enough to see the import-
ance of the question at issue." How strongly
does the Afghan question attract the public
attention of England at the present day ?

It is very evident that in 1857 very few in
England were awake to the vital importance
of withstanding Russian inroads into the far
East, viz., the Pacific.

After defeating Russia miserably in the
Crimean War and, driving her back at the

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 23

Balkans by the Treaty of Paris, Lord
Palmerston's mind was now revolving and
discussing the following serious thought :
" Where would Russia stretch out her hands
next ? "

I think I am not wrong in stating the
following as Lord Palmerston's solution of
the problem :—

(a) That Russia was about to strike the
English interests at Afghanistan by an alli-
ance with Persia,

(6) That she would attack the Afghan
frontier single-handed.

(d) She would extend her Siberian terri-
tory to the Pacific on the north, thereby
obtaining a seaport on that ocean's coast, and
make it an outpost for undermining English
influence in Southern China.

Therefore in 1856 Lord Palmerston de-
clared war against Persia remarking that
" we are beginning to reveal the first

24 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

openings of trenches against India by
Russia." J

This policy proved a winning one. The
Indian Mutiny of 1857, however, scarcely
gave Palmerston time to mature his Afghan
Frontier scheme, consequently his views with
regard to that country were to a great extent
frustrated by Russia.

In the autumn of 1856, the Arrow dispute
gave Palmerston his long-wished for oppor-
tunity of gaining a stronghold in the South
China Sea. He declared war on China. The
causes of this dispute on the English side
were morally unjust and legally untenable.
Cobden brought forward a resolution to this
effect — that " The paper laid on the table
failed to establish satisfactory grounds for
the violent measure resorted to." Disraeli,
Russell, and Graham all supported Cobden's
motion. Mr. Gladstone, who was also in
favour of the motion, said, at the conclusion
of his speech, " with every one of us it rests
to show that this House, which is the first,

1 Lord Palmerston's letter to Lord Clarendon, Feb.
17, 1857.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 25

the most ancient, and the noblest temple of
freedom in the world, is also the temple of
that everlasting justice without which freedom
itself would only be a name, or only a curse,
to mankind. And I cherish the trust that
when you, sir, rise in your place to-night to
declare the numbers of the division from the
chair which you adorn, the words which you
speak will go forth from the halls of the
House of Commons as a message of British
justice and wisdom to the farthest corner of
the world."

Mr. Gladstone, it certainly seems to me,
only viewed the matter from a moral point of
view. If we look at it in this light, then the
British occupation of Port Hamilton was a
still more striking example of English "loose
law and loose notion of morality in regard to
Eastern nations."

Palmerston was defeated in the House by
sixteen votes, but was returned at the general
election by a large majority backed by the
aggressive feelings of the English nation.

He contended that " if the Chinese were
right about the Arrow, they were wrong

26 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

about something else ; if legality did not
exactly justify violence, it was at any rate
required by policy" J He described this
policy in the following way — " To maintain
the rights, to defend the lives and properties
of British subjects, to improve our relations
with China, and in the selection and arrange-
ment of those objects to perform the duty
which we owed to the country,"

This is easy to understand, and showed at
any rate a disposition, in fact a wish, for the
Anglo-Chinese alliance.

The Treaty of Pekin was finally concluded
in 1860, the terms of which were — Toleration
of Christianity, a revised tariff, payment of
an indemnity, and resident ambassadors at
Pekin.

Whatever might have been the policy of
Palmerston in the Chinese War, Russia took
it as indirectly pointed at herself.

General Ignatieff2 was sent to China

1 John Morley's "The Life of Richard Cobden," vol.
ii. p. 189.

2 " In the year 1855 or T^S^ his father's influence
succeeded in procuring him a position in the suite of
General Muravieff, who as Governor^general of Eastern

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 27

immediately as Russian Plenipotentiary. It
is said that he furnished maps to the allies,
in fact did his very best to bring the negotia-
tions to a successful and peaceful close, and
immediately after the signing of the agree-
ment, he commenced overtures for his own
country, and succeeded in obtaining from
China the cession of Eastern Siberia with
Vladivostock and other seaports on the
Pacific (1858).

Lord Elgin asked Ignatieff why Russia
was so anxious to obtain naval ports on
the Pacific. He replied ; " We do not
want them for our own sake, but chiefly
in order that we may be in a position to
compel the English to recognize that it is

Siberia, had undertaken a more accurate investigation of
the Amoor territory, and was preparing for its coloniza-
tion. During this work, the French and English war
with China broke out ; the allies occupied Pekin, and
seemed to threaten the existence of the Celestial Empire.
This moment was taken advantage of by Russia, who had
already been negotiating for some time with China,
respecting the cession of a large territory south of the
Amoor. Ignatieff was sent to China as ambassador
extraordinary " (F, E. Bunnett's " Russian Society,"
p. 170),

28 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

worth their while to be friends with us rather
than foes."

Here began the struggle between England
and Russia in the Pacific.

In 1859 Russia obtained the Saghalien l
Island, in the North Pacific, from Japan, in
exchange for the Kurile Island, while Eng-
land was bombarding 2 Kagoshima, a port
in South Japan (1862), but the English were
virtually repelled from there.

Previous to this period the English policy
in Asia was to establish a firm hold of Indian
commerce with the South China Sea, for she
could not find so large and profitable a field

1 " The preciousness of Saghalien in the eye of the
Russians, however, does not lie so much in its coal
beds, its promise of future harvests, its use as a penal
colony, or its six hundred miles of length, but in its
situation commanding the northern entrance to the sea
of Japan, and guarding, like a huge breakwater, the
mouth of the great river Amoor " (John Geddie,
F.R.G.S., "The Russian Empire," p. 484).

2 " If war is made to enforce a commercial treaty, we
run the risk of engaging in protracted hostilities, and of
earning a reputation for quarrelling with every nation in
the East. . . . The Japanese may well be jealous of
Europeans, who insult their usages and carry away their
gold" (Lord J. Russell to Mr. Alcock, Feb. 28, 1860).

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 29

of commerce elsewhere. Therefore the Eng-
lish attention for the time being was entirely
directed in that quarter.

In 1819 the island of Singapore, as well
as all the seas, straits, and islands lying
within ten miles of its coast, were ceded to
the British by the Sultan of Johor. It then
contained only a few hundred piratical fisher-
men, but now it is on the great road of
commerce between the eastern and western
portions of Maritime Asia, and is a most
important military and naval station.

Hong- Kong, an island off the southern
coast of China, was occupied by the English,
and in 1842 was formally handed over by
the Treaty of Nankin. It has now become
a great centre of trade, besides being a naval
and military station.

In 1846 Labuan, the northern part of
Borneo, was ceded to Great Britain by the
Sultan of Borneo, and owing to the influence
of Sir James Brooke a settlement was at
once formed: Now it also, like Singapore,
forms an important commercial station, and
transmits to both China and Europe the

30 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC,

produce of Borneo and the Malay Archi-
pelago.

Owing to the opening of seaports in
Northern China for foreign trade in 1842, the
growing Russian influence in the Northern
Pacific and many other circumstances caused
England to perceive the necessity of having
a naval dep6t and commercial harbour on
the Tong Hai and on the Yellow Sea.
England was doubtless casting her eyes
upon the Chusan Island or some other
island in the Chusan Archipelago, but did
not dare to occupy any one of them lest
she should thereby offend the chief trading
nation of that quarter, viz., China.

However, in 1885 England annexed Port
Hamilton, on the southern coast of the Corea,
during the threatened breach with Russia on
the Murghab question.

" Port Hamilton," said the author of " The
Present Condition of European Politics," l
" was wisely occupied as a base from which,
with or without a Chinese alliance, Russia

1 "The Present Condition of European Politics,"
p. 175-

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 31

could be attacked on the Pacific. It is vital
to us that we should have a coaling station
and a base of operations within reach of
Vladivostock and the Amoor at the begin-
ning of a war, as a guard-house for the
protection of our China trade and for the
prevention , of a sudden descent upon our
colonies ; ultimately as the head station for
our Canadian Pacific railroad trade ; and at
all times, and especially in the later stages
of the war, as an offensive station for our
main attack on Russia."

Port Hamilton forms the gate of Tong
Hai and the Yellow Sea ; it cannot, how-
ever, become a base of operations for an
attack on the Russian force at Vladivostock
and the Amoor unless an English alliance
is formed with Japan. The above writer
shows an ignorance of the importance of
the situation of Japan in the Pacific ques-
tion. Japan holds the key of the North o
China Sea and Japan Sea in Tsushima.1

1 Earl Russell, Nov. 22, 1861, echoed these condi-
tions (four conditions) and equivalent, and added a some-
what cunning addition : " The opening of the ports of
Tsushima (in place of Osaka, the centre and trading

32 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

She has fortified that island, and placed it
in direct communication with the naval
station of Sasebo, also with the military
forces of Kumamoto. She also can send
troops and fleets from the Kure naval station
and the garrison of Hiroshima. She would
also, if required, have other naval stations
on the coast of the Japan Sea ready for any
emergency. In this manner she would be
able to keep out the British fleet from attack-
ing Vladivostock and the Amoor through the
Japan Sea. Even if she might not be able
to do this single-handed she certainly could
by an alliance with Russia.

If also Japan occupied Fusan, on the
south-eastern shore of the Corea, the Japan
Sea would be rendered almost impregnable
from any southern attack.

city of the Empire) and the neighbouring coast of Corea
as far as Japanese authority extends, to the trade of
the treaty powers." It could only be the expectation
of some secret advantages that do not at first sight meet
the eye that could have induced any one to propose the
port of Tsushima for that of Osaka (" Diplomacy in
Japan," p. 61). The Japanese wisely declined the
British offer.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 33.

Again, Port Hamilton would be useless
as a head station for the Canadian Pacific
Railway trade without an Anglo-Japanese alli-
ance. If you look at the map, you can easily
appreciate the situation. Japan, with many
hundreds of small islands, lies between 24°
and 52° in N. lat., its eastern shores facing
the Pacific and cutting off a direct line from
Vancouver's Island to Port Hamilton. It
must therefore depend mainly upon Japan
as a financial and political success.

Japan is now divided into six military
districts, while the seas around it are divided
into five parts, each having its own chief
station in contemplation. The Government
are now contemplating establishing a strong
naval station at Mororan in Hokkukaido, for
the defence of the district and also the shore
of the northern part of the mainland,
especially of the Tsugaru Strait. The strait
of Shimonoseki also has been fortified and
garrisoned on both sides, and has close
communication from the Kure naval station,
and with Hiroshima, and Osaka. Railway
communication has also made great strides

34 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

during the last few years, and rapid transit
has consequently greatly improved through-
out the empire.

If the Kiushiu, the Loo Choo, and the
Miyako Islands are well looked after by the
Japanese fleet from the Sasebo naval station,
then Japan would be able to sever the
communication between Vancouver's Islands
and Port Hamilton, and also between the
former place and Hong Kong to a certain
extent. The San- Francisco- Hong- Kong
route would be injured, and Shanghai- Port-
Hamilton line would be threatened. With-
out doubt Japan is the Key of the Pacific.

Reviewing the discussion, we find that
Port Hamilton is rather useless with regard
to the Japan Sea and the Canadian Pacific
railway road without a Japanese alliance, but
it would be of immense importance in with-
standing a Russian attack on the British
interests from the Yellow Sea through
Mongolia or Manchooria. It is also an
excellent position for any offensive attack
upon China in case of war breaking out.

The British occupation of Port Hamilton

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 35

was very galling to the Chinese nation, in
fact, quite as disagreeable as the occupation of
Malta and Corsica was to Italy, and the
annexing of the Channel Islands and Heligo-
land to France and Germany. It has there-
fore somewhat shaken the Anglo-Chinese
alliance.

A Chinese alliance, however, is of far
greater importance for English interests than
the occupation of Port Hamilton. If relations
became strained a severe blow would be dealt
to English trade and commerce in that part.
The main portion of the commercial trade of
China is with the United Kingdom and her
colonies ; for instance, in 1887, the imports of
China from Great Britain, Hong Kong, and
India amounted to about 89,000,000 tael,
while the exports to the same countries were
48,000,000 tael. It is hardly possible to find
two countries more closely connected by trade
than England and China.1 The Hamilton

1 IN 1887.

Great Britain
Hong Kong

IMPORTS IN

VALUE FROM

... 25,666,477 tael ..
••• 57,761,039 „ ..

EXPORTS

IN VALUE TO

. 16,482,809 tael.

36 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

scheme was wisely abandoned in 1887, and
the English Government obtained a written
guarantee from China against a Russian
occupation in future years.

Viscount Cranbrook said in his reply to
a question asked by Viscount Sidmouth :
" That the papers to which he referred did
contain a written statement, and a very long
written statement on the part of the Chinese
Government giving the guarantee in question.
It was not a mere verbal statement by the
Chinese Covernment, but a very deliberate
note. It was found that the Chinese had
received from the Russian Government a
guarantee that Russia would not interfere
with Corean territory in future if the British
did not, and the Chinese Government were
naturally in a position, on the faith of that
guarantee by the Russian Government, to

IN 1887. IMPORTS IN EXPORTS

VALUE FROM IN VALUE TO

India 5»537>375 tael ••• 797,579 tael.

Continent of Europe) « «

(without Russia) {2>587,548 „ ... u,545,4o< „

The average value of the Haikwan tael during 1887
was 45. io-|d. (" The Statesman's Year-book," 1889.)

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 37

give a guarantee to the British Government.
The Marquess of Salisbury, on the part of
her Majesty's Government, had accepted it
as a guarantee in writing from the Chinese
Government."

This policy was undoubtedly an exceed-
ingly wise and good one. By this England
not only regained a firm and complete
commercial alliance, but also maintained and
strengthened a political alliance against
Russian attacks from the Corea and indirectly
from Manchooria and Mongolia.

England also saved money by the abandon-
ment of the Port Hamilton scheme, and
saved her fleet from being, to a certain
degree, scattered in such a far-off quarter of
the globe.

England now holds complete sway both
commercially and navally in the Pacific.
Lord Salisbury's policy is worthy of all
praise, together with Mr. Gladstone's original
scheme. If the scheme had never been
originated there would not have been so
firm an Anglo- Chinese alliance as there
now is.

38 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

England's power at the present time is
three times as great as that of Russia in the
Pacific ; in fact Russia has always been over-
weighted in that respect. Therefore it is self-
evident she could never be able to withstand
the combined Anglo-Chinese fleets.

It seems to me that the only feasible plan
for a Russian attack on Anglo-Chinese
alliance would be from Mongolia and
Manchooria by means of an alliance with
the Mongolian Tartars. This would be
preferable to coping with England face to
face in the Pacific.

Chinese history plainly tells us that the
Chinese could not withstand an attack of
the brave Mongol Tartars from the north,
and that they have proved a constant source
of dread to them.

The Great Wall which stretches across the
whole northern limit of the Chinese Empire
from the sea to the farthest western corner
of the Province of Kansal, was built only
for the defence of China against the northern
" daring " Tartars.

Ghenghis Khan (1194), the rival of Attila,

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 39

in the extent of his kingdom, who overran
the greater part of China and subdued nearly
the whole of N. Asia, who carried his arms
into Persia and Delhi, drove the Indians on
to the Ganges, and also destroyed Astrakhan
and the power of the Ottoman, was a Mon-
golian Tartar.

In the thirteenth century Kokpitsuretsu
invaded China from Mongolia and formed
the Gen dynasty which ruled over the whole
eastern part of Asia except Japan (1280 to
1368). The founder of the present Chinese
dynasty was a Manchoorian. Both, how-
ever, were of Mongolian extraction, and well
kept up the fame of the Tartars for boldness
and general daring. Since their times the
Tartars have fully maintained their title of
beinqr the most warlike tribe in Asia.

Therefore if Russia were allied with the
Mongol Tartars she would be able at least
to reach the Yellow Sea, even if she were
not able to do China serious harm.

Her best policy would be to extend the
Omsk-Tomsk Railway1 to Kiakhtavzd Kansk

1 The Czar approved of the plan for completing the

40 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

and Irkutsk, and from there to Ust Strelka
and Blagovestchensk through Nertchinsk ; a
branch also might be thrown off from Kiakhta
to Oorga, in the direction of Pekin, the
metropolis of China ; two branches might
also be constructed from Nertchinsk — (a) to
Isitsikar, through the western boundary of
Manchooria, with the ultimate object of
reaching some convenient harbour on the
Gulf of Leaotong, or the Yellow Sea, via
Kirin l arid Moukden — (<5)to L. Kulon through
the northern boundary of Mongolia in the
direction of Pekin ; and to construct a branch
line from Blagovestchensk to Isitsikar via
Merghen.

By these means Russia would not only
open sources of untold wealth in Siberia, but
also secure a larger field of commerce in
Manchooria and Mongolia than she has done
by the opening of the Trans-Caspian Railway.

Siberian Railway, and for its connection with the Trans-
•Caucasian line, Jan., 1890 ; the works are to be com-
menced by the ist of May at the latest.

1 The Chinese Government gave its assent to the con.
struction of a railway from Pekin to Kirin via Moukden
Jan., 1890.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. f 41

It is clear that there would be more political
and strategical advantages in this quarter
than in Central Asia. Should Russia ever \
be able to get possession of a seaport in the
Gulf of Leaotong or in the Yellow Sea, she
would deal a heavy blow against the Anglo-
Chinese alliance, and ultimately frustrate, to
a great extent, British aspirations in theJEast.

Russia, however, has worked in quite a dif-
ferent way, and is strengthening the defences
at Vladivostock both in military and naval
forces, and is acting towards the Corea in a
gradually-increasing aggressive spirit, which
had succeeded in Europe and Central Asia
previously for more than one hundred and
fifty years.

Lord Derby well described the Russian
tactics in the following speech : — " It has |
never been preceded by storm, but by sap
and mine. The first process has been in-
variably that of fomenting discontent and
dissatisfaction amongst the subjects of sub-
ordinate states, then proffering mediation,
then offering assistance to the weaker party,
then declaring the independence of that

42 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

party, then placing that independence under
the protection of Russia, and finally, from
protection proceeding to the incorporation,
one by one, of those states into the gigantic
body of the Russian Empire."

But Russia should remember that a Russian
annexation of Corea — " the Turkey " in Asia
— would necessitate an alliance of England,
China, and Japan, who all possess common
interests in the Pacific and Yellow Sea ; also
that it might cause a second Crimean war in
the Pacific instead of on the Black Sea.

Japan was comparatively unknown until
Commodore Perry, of the United States,
introduced her to European society in 1854.
Since that date a " wonderful metamorphosis"
has taken place in every branch of civiliza-
tion.

The total area of Japan is about ^48,742
square miles, or nearly a quarter greater than
that of the United Kingdom, while the popu-
lation is about 38,000,000. The climate is
very healthy, while the natural resources are
many.

Japanese patriotism is very keen, and their

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 43

love of country stands before everything ;
they are brave, honest, and open-minded.
The following facts bear out the above state-
ment : In 1281 the "Armada of Mongol
Tartars " reached the Japanese shores, only to
be easily repulsed in Kiushiu by the Japanese
fleet. Hideyoshi in the sixteenth century con-
quered the Corea, and General Saigo defeated
and subjugated eighteen of the resident
chiefs with all their followers in Formosa

(1873).

One of the great traits in the Japanese
character is that they never hesitate to adopt
new systems and laws if they consider them
beneficial for their country. Feudalism was
abolished in 1871 without bloodshed. In
1879 city and prefectural assemblies were
created, based on the principle of the election.
The new Constitution was promulgated in
1889, and new Houses of Peers and Commons
will be opened this year (1890).

Railways are rapidly growing, over 1,000
miles already having been laid, and soon the
whole country will be opened out by the
u iron horse." All the principal towns are

44 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

connected by telegraph l with one another
and with Europe. The postal system 2 is
carried out on English lines, while the police
force is strong and very efficient. The
standing army consists of about forty-three
thousand men, which, however, could be
quickly increased to two hundred thousand
in case of war, all trained and equipped under
the European system. The navy consists
of thirty-two ships, including several protected
cruisers, and in this or next year it will be
reinforced by three more ironclads and five
or six gunboats. The Japanese navy is
organized chiefly upon the pattern of the
English navy.

The geographical situation and condition
of Japan are very favourable to her future
prosperity, both commercially and from a
manufacturing point of view. Look at a

1 There are now more than sixteen million miles of
wire, and in 1887 the number of telegrams carried were
about five millions ("The Statesman's Year-book," 1889).

2 The post office carried, in 1887, 54,313,385 letters,
55,332,873 post cards, 20,713,422 newspapers and books,
163,630 packets, 7,014,859 letters and newspapers free
of postage ("The Statesman's Year-book," 1889).

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 47

map of the world — the country lies between
two of the largest commercial nations, viz.,
the United States and China, the former l
being England's great commercial rival of
the present day, while the latter offers a
large field for trade and commerce.

If M. de Lesseps' scheme of the Panama
Canal should happen to be completed on his
Suez Canal line, undoubtedly the Pacific
Ocean would be revolutionized in every way.
Up to now the water-way from Europe to
the Pacific has been from the West, viz., via
the Suez Canal, or the Cape of Good Hope.

But in case of the " gate of the
Pacific " being open, then European goods
could be transported in another direction,
and the nations in the Pacific would have
two sea routes. Japan would be placed
practically in the centre of three large
markets — Europe, Asia, and America — and
its commercial prosperity would be ensured.

1 " The English world-empire has two gigantic neigh-
bours in the west and in the east. In the West she has
the United States, and in the East Russia for a neighbour"
(Prof. Seeley's " Expansion of England," p. 288).

48 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

If, however, the Panama scheme failed from
one cause or another there would be another
sea route.1

1 Extracts from a pamphlet written in 1847 by His
Imperial Majesty, Napoleon III. : —

"There are certain countries which, from their
geographical situation, are destined to a highly pros-
perous future. Wealth, power, every national advantage,
flows into them, provided that where Nature has done her
utmost, man does not neglect to avail himself of her
beneficent assistance.

" Those countries are in the most favourable conditions
which are situated on the high road of commerce, and
which offer to commerce the safest ports and harbours, as
well as the most profitable interchange of commodities.
Such countries, finding in the intercourse of foreign trade
illimitable resources, are enabled to take advantage of the
fertility of their soil ; and in this way a home trade
springs up commensurate with the increase of mercantile
traffic. It is by such means that Tyre and Carthage,
Constantinople, Venice, Genoa, Amsterdam, Liverpool,,
and London attained to such great prosperity, rising from
the condition of poor hamlets to extensive and affluent
commercial cities, and exhibiting to surrounding nations
the astonishing spectacle of powerful states springing
suddenly from unwholesome swamps and marshes.
Venice in particular was indebted for her overwhelming
grandeur to the geographical position which constituted
her for centuries the entrepot between Europe and the
East ; and it was only when the discovery of the Cape of
Good Hope opened a ship passage to the latter that her
prosperity gradually declined. Notwithstanding, so great

JA PAN AND THE PACIFIC. 49

In 1887 the American Senate sanctioned
the creation of a company for the construc-
tion of a maritime canal across Nicaragua,1

was her accumulation of wealth, and consequent com-
mercial influence, that she withstood for three centuries
the formidable competition thus created.

"There exists another city famous in history, although
now fallen from its pristine grandeur, so admirably
situated as to excite the jealousy of all the great
European Powers, who combine to maintain in it a
government so far barbarous as to be incapable of
taking advantage of the great resources bestowed upon
it by nature. The geographical position of Constantinople
•is such as rendered her the queen of the ancient world.
Occupying, as she does, the central point between Europe,
Asia, and Africa, she could become the entrepot of the
commerce of all these countries, and obtain over them
an immense preponderance ; for in politics, as in strategy,
a central position always commands the circumference.
Situated between two seas, of which, like two great lakes,
she commands the entrance, she could shut up in them,
sheltered from the assaults of all other nations, the most
formidable fleets, by which she could exercise dominion

1 " The. total length of the canal from sea to sea would
be little short of 200 miles, viz., 154 miles from the Pacific
to the lake, 56^- across the lake, and 119 to the Atlantic ;
total, 191 miles ; and the Lake of Nicaragua is navigable
for ships of the largest class down to the mouth of the
•river San Juan " (C. B. Pin's " The Gate of the Pacific,"
P- J33)-

50 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

and the actual work was begun in October,
1889.
The President of the country, which has a

in the Mediterranean as well as in the Black Sea, thereby
commanding the entrance of the Danube, which opens
the way to Germany, as well as the sources of the
Euphrates, which open the road to the Indies, dictating
her own terms to the commerce of Greece, France, Italy,
Spain, and Egypt. This is what the proud city of
Constantine could be, and this is what she is not,
' because ' as Montesquieu says, ' God permitted that
Turks should exist on earth, a people the most fit to
possess uselessly a great empire.'

"There exists in the New World a state as admirably
situated as Constantinople, and we must say, up to the
present time, as uselessly occupied ; we allude to the
state of Nicaragua. As Constantinople is the centre of the
ancient world, so is the town of Leon, or rather Massaya,
the centre of the new ; and if the tongue of land which
separates its two lakes from the Pacific Ocean were cut
through, she would command by her central position the
entire coast of North and South America. Like Con-
stantinople, Massaya is situated between two extensive
natural harbours, capable of giving shelter to the largest
fleets, safe from attack. The state of Nicaragua can
become, better than Constantinople, the necessary route
for the great commerce of the world, for it is for the
United States the shortest road to China and the East
Indies, and for England and the rest of Europe to New
Holland, Polynesia, and the whole of the western coast
of America. The state of Nicaragua is, then, destined to
attain to an extraordinary degree of prosperity and

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 51

surplus of 57,000,000 dollars, alluding to the
commencement of the Nicaragua Canal said
in his message to the Senate : —

"This Government is ready to promote

grandeur • for that which renders its political position
more advantageous than that of Constantinople is, that
the great maritime powers of Europe would witness with
pleasure, and not with jealousy, its attainment of a station
no less favourable to its individual interests than to the
commerce of the world.

" France, England, Holland, Russia, and the United
States, have a great commercial interest in the establish-
ment of a communication between the two oceans ; but
England has more than the other powers a political
interest in the execution of this project. England
will see with pleasure Central America become a
flourishing and powerful state, which will establish a
balance of power by creating in Spanish America a new
centre of active enterprise, powerful enough to give rise
to a great feeling of nationality and to prevent, by backing
Mexico, any further encroachment from the north.
England will witness with satisfaction the opening of a
route which will enable her to communicate more
speedily with Oregon, China, and her possessions in New
Holland. She will find, in a word, that the advancement
of Central America will renovate the declining commerce
of Jamaica and the other English island in the Antilles,
the progressive decay of which will be thereby stopped.
It is a happy coincidence that the political and commercial
prosperity of the state of Nicaragua is closely connected
with the policy of that nation which has the greatest pre-
ponderance on the sea."

52 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

every proper requirement for the adjustment
of all questions presenting obstacles to its
completion." Jt is therefore pretty sure,
sooner or later, to be completed, and would
take the place of the Panama Canal and give
the same advantages .with 'regard to the
Pacific and Japan.

"In the school of Carl Ritter," l said
Professor Seeley, " much has been said of
three stages of civilization determined by
geographical conditions — the potamic, which
clings to rivers ; the thalassic, which grows
up around inland seas ; and lastly, the
oceanic." He also traced the movements
of the centre of commerce and intelligence
in Europe, and at last found out why
England had attained her present great-
ness.

Without doubt, since the discovery of a
new world the whole world has become
the oceanic.

But the discoveries of Watt and Stephen-
son, seem to me to have added another stage
to general civilization, viz., the railway ; and

1 Prof. Seeley's " Expansion of England," p. 87.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 53

it seems also to me that we might call the
present era " the railway-oceanic."

The Canadian Pacific Railway scheme was
completed in 1887. It has a total length of
at least 3,000 miles, starting from Quebec and
finishing at Vancouver's Island on the Pacific.
Its marvellous success will also considerably
change the general tenor of the Pacific even
more than the Panama or Nicaragua scheme
will do. An express train can cross in five
days, while the voyage from Vancouver to
Yokohama in Japan, would only occupy
twelve. days steaming at the rate of fourteen
or fifteen knots an hour. From England
the whole journey to Shanghai and Hong
Kong by this route would take only thirty-
four or thirty-five days, and Australia now
has direct communication with the mother
country through a sister colony.

Last of all, Japan would have much better
communication with the European markets
generally than is possible at the present time,
if the English proposed * mail steamers

1 " The negotiations with the Imperial Government for
the establishment of a permanent line of first-class steam-

54 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

should run, and it is said that the Canadian
Pacific route would bring Japan within
twenty-six or twenty-seven days' reach of
England.

On the other hand, if the Russian Siberian
Railway scheme should be carried out to the
Pacific at Vladivostock, it would open a very
large field of trade and commerce with inland
Siberia to Japan. It would be still more so
if the Chinese railways were extended so as
to open the entire empire.1

Japan has not only a splendid future before
her with regard to commercial greatness, but
has every chance of rising to the head of
manufacturing nations. In the latter respect
she has advantages over Vancouver's Island
and New South Wales, her rivals on the
Pacific. She is known to possess valuable

ships, suitable for service as armed cruisers in case of need,
resulted in an official notification that Her Majesty's
Government had decided to grant a subsidy of ^60,000
per annum for a monthly service between Vancouver
and Hong Kong, via Yokohama " (" Canada, Statistical
Abstract and Record for the Year 1887," p. 306).

1 " China is a storehouse of men and means ; its outer
<ioor has scarcely yet been opened " (R. E. Webster's
"The Trade of the World," p. 317).

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 55

mineral resources, having good coal mines
at Kiushiu and Hokkukaido. The climate
of Japan varies in different localities, but on
the whole is exceedingly healthy. Consist-
ing as the country does of numerous islands
she has many good harbours and trading
ports. Wages are low though they might
rise if a corresponding increase of labour is
required. The credit system is fairly well
carried out l and is growing day by day.
There are about four hundred banks, inclu-
ding the Bank of Japan ; and the medium
of exchange has a regular standard. The
principal exports are silk, tea, coal, and rice.
Japan is not the producer of raw goods for
manufacturing purposes, but simply works
them up. Her area is not in comparison

1 Sir H. Parkes, late Minister of England in Japan, said :
" The statement of the national liabilities this year (1878),
shows that Japan has kept faith with her foreign creditors,
the interest on her foreign debt and the sum requisite for
the payment of the amount of capital redeemed during
the year having been duly provided. There is no reason
to doubt that care will be taken to ensure punctual pay-
ment in future on this account until the entire extinction
of this debt in 1895." Japan has never failed to pay her
foreign debts.

56 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

with the commercial greatness which she
will attain in the future. She may import
raw goods from America, Australia, and
the Asiatic countries, in the same way that
England does. Her position enables her
also to obtain wool from Australia and
California, also cotton from China, Man-
chooria, India, and Queensland. All these
imports are worked up into different
manufacturing goods. She has an ad-
vantage here over England, for she has
not so far to send her manufactured goods,
and does not need, like England, to send,
them all round the world.

Thus we see Japan has ample scope from
a commercial point of view, and has plenty of
friendly countries close at home for the pro-
duction of her raw material, and has great
advantages in sea routes to America and
Australia.

The Japanese are born sailors, being
islanders.

There are several large steamship
companies l whose ships are continually
1 There is also a Maritime Insurance Company.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 57

plying along her own shores * and also to
the mainland of China, and one company
contemplates shortly opening communication
with North and South America. It has
often puzzled me why Japan does not hold
closer relations with Australia, especially
as Australia is becoming one of her most
important neighbours in commerce. I can
certainly predict that if this suggestion comes
to pass, that together they will in the future
hold the key of the Pacific trade.

Australia and her near colonies have
already begun to play an important part in
the affairs of the Pacific ; and why should
she not, considering their natural wealth and
general progress ? European Powers have
begun to take great interest, both commer-
cially and diplomatically, in these colonies.
England, France, Spain, and Holland long
ago saw the advantage of having secured
coaling stations in the Pacific, and England
and France have always taken great care in
selecting posts in the immediate vicinity of

1 Light-houses — fifty-seven in number and some of
them are very powerful.

58 -JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

the sea route between America and Australia ;
and since the working of the Canadian Pacific
Railway and the Panama Canal, they have
begun to annex those islands which lie near
the route from Panama to the Australian
colonies, and from the latter to Vancouver.
The French occupation of Tahiti and the
Rapa (both containing good harbours) in
1880 was with the distinct object of con-
trolling the sea route from Panama to
Sydney, Brisbane, and Auckland. England
also began to fortify Jamaica in 1887, and
she is now casting her eyes on Raratonga.
The dispute regarding the New Hebrides
and the Samoan Conference * were simply for
the protection of the Vancouvan- Australian -
San - Franciscan sea-ways. England has
lately annexed the Ellice Islands and un-
doubtedly will shortly occupy the Gilbert and
Charlotte Islands.

1 The Samoan Convention declared the Samoan
Islands to be neutral territory. The citizens and sub-
jects of the signatory powers will enjoy equal rights and
the independence of the islands is recognized with
Malietou as king: Jan., 1890.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 59

Germany also has been considering the
Asiatic-Australian routes, foreseeing that the
whole Pacific question rests on that basis. In
1884 she annexed New Guinea, and the Bis-
marckian policy proved a severe blow to the
British power in the North and West Pacific.
There are three great sea routes from New
South Wales to Hong Kong and other parts
of the North Pacific ; one travels eastward
of the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia
(6,000 miles) and the other two westward of
the above-mentioned islands (5,500 and 5,000
miles).

The German occupation of New Guinea
actually resulted in her having the entire
control of these three important sea routes.
The English possession of the Treasury
Islands, the depot made there, and of the
Louisiade Archipelago is certainly not strong
enough to protect these routes, though they
are very important for the defence of the
Australian colonies. Even the trade route
from Vancouver's Island to Brisbane has to
a certain extent been endangered. It would
•be policy on England's part to annex the

60 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Solomon Islands if she means to regain the
prestige which she has lost owing to the
Germanic policy of annexation in the
Pacific.

In order to firmly establish her power in
this quarter, Germany, in 1885, raised a
quarrel with Spain concerning the sovereignty
of the Caroline and Pelew Islands, but this
quarrel was composed by the mediation of
the Pope.

Frederick the Great " preferred regiments,,
as a ship cost as much as a regiment."
Bismarck preferred " the Greater Germany,"
and his policy was " the German trade with
the German flag " (i.e., the German flag shall
go where German trade has already estab-
lished a footing). This policy proved very
successful, not only in the West Pacific, but
also in the North Pacific and the eastern
coast of Africa. Germany now is the chief
colonizing rival of England.

In 1883 Mr. Chester annexed all the parts
of New Guinea with the adjacent islands
lying between 141 deg. and 155 deg. of E.
long. Lord Derby, however, annulled this

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 61

annexation, regarding it as an unfriendly act,
and he also assured the Colonial Government
that " Her Majesty's Government are con-
fident that no foreign power contemplates
interference in New Guinea." This occurred
in May, 1884. But this prognostication did
not prove true, for in November of the same
year Germany occupied New Guinea.

This caused much public indignation in
the English colonies against the Home
Government, and the public of England
recognized that the reasons and complaints
-of the Australian Colonies were right and just.

The movement of Imperial Federation
sprang up in England, the chief object of
which was " a closer association between the
Colonies and Great Britain and Ireland for
common national purposes such as colonial
and foreign policy, defence and trade/' The
result of this was the Colonial Conference in
1887 ; and Lord Salisbury, offering a hearty
welcome to the Colonial delegates, said : " I
do not recommend you to indulge in schemes
of Constitution making;" but also said : " It
will be the parent of a long progeniture,

62 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

and distant councils of the empire may, in
some far-off time, look back to the meeting
in this room as the root from which their
greatness and beneficence sprang."

The following subjects were submitted for
discussion: (i) The local defence of ports
other than Imperial coaling stations ; (2) the
naval defence of the Australian Colonies ;
(3) measures of precaution in relation to
the defences of colonial ports ; (4) various
questions in connection with the military
aspects of telegraph cables, their necessity
for purpose of war, and their protection ; (5)
questions relating to the employment and
training of local or native troops to serve as
garrisons of works of defence ; and, lastly
(6), the promotion of commercial and social
relations by the development of our postal
and telegraphic communication.

Thus, by means of this Conference, the
military federation of the British Empire
was established. By its efforts the English
squadron in the China Sea and in the Aus-
tralian seas are more closely connected
together than they have been before, and, if

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 63

needed, the English forces in the North
Pacific would be reinforced by Australian
troops. We saw an instance of this in the
late Egyptian campaign.

One more question remains to be ven-
tilated, viz., whether England is able to
secure absolute power in the North Pacific
with the naval and military forces she has at
her command there, using Hong Kong as
the centre of war preparations.

I answer in the negative. It could be
maintained only by an occupier of the Island
of Formosa, the "Malta" of the North
Pacific, which lies between the North China
Sea and the South China Sea. Its area is
estimated at 14,978 square miles. It has a
healthy climate, tempered by the influence of
the sea and its mountains. Coal is to be
found in considerable quantities, although not
of the best quality. Its natural products are
plentiful, such as sugar, tea, and rice. It
possesses several good harbours, one of
which, Tam-sui, or Howei, is surrounded by
hills upwards of 2,000 feet high, and has a
depth of 3 £ fathoms with a bar of 7J feet.

-64 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

From this island, with a good navy, any
power almost might be exerted over the
North and South China Seas, and over the
Pacific highways from Hong Kong to
Australia, Panama, Nicaragua, San Francisco,
Vancouver, Japan, Shanghai. All these are
in fairly close proximity to Formosa, and the
Shanghai route to Hong Kong actually runs
between the island and the China mainland.

There remain still two or three more facts
which must not be neglected in order to
obtain a fair view of this important question.

(a)' It is a fine post for any offensive
attack upon China, and also a stronghold for
an attack upon the British power in the
Pacific. If fortified and defended by a navy
from any other power, Formosa would prove
a great rival to Hong Kong, which would
lose at least half of its importance, commer-
cially and strategically, and which has already
been somewhat weakened by the French
occupation of Cochin China, in 1882. l

1 The whole history of the French in the East is
indissolubly bound up with the history of their efforts to
•destroy our Eastern supremacy. Mauritius was occupied

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 6$

(b) In case of Asiatic complications, Eng-
land would naturally expect reinforcements
from Australia, and from the mother country
by the Canadian Pacific Railway, but after
they arrive at Vancouver, and are on
transport, they will be at the mercy either of
Japan or the occupier, whoever it may be, of
Formosa. Even the Bismarckian policy re
New Guinea would be broken down, i.e., all
commercial and strategical communication
between Hong Kong and Australia would be
seriously incommoded by the occupation of
Formosa.

(c] If China herself occupied Formosa
thoroughly,1 and allied with Japan who

to enable French cruisers to prey on our East Indiamen.
Louis XIV. volunteered armed aid to Annam in order
to cut off Calcutta from Canton. A French occupation
of Tonkin is a serious matter. French cruisers supplied
with coal from the mines of Tonkin would lie in the fair-
way of our China trade, Burmah and Calcutta would
be effectually blockaded, and our outlying Oriental
possessions grievously threatened (C. B. Norman's
" Tonkin and France in the Far East").

1 The inhabitants of the eastern region refuse to
recognize the Chinese authority. China cannot control
the people of Formosa at all. There is a proverb,.
" Every three years an outbreak, every five a rebellion."

<S6 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

occupies the Loo-Choo Islands, they would
be impregnable in the sea above 20° of
N.lat.

Again, if the occupier of the Loo Choo
Islands z also occupied Formosa on a military
basis, she again would have nearly absolute
control of the North Pacific. England would
be supreme if she held both Hong Kong and
Formosa; Germany if the holder would not
only complete the Bismarckian policy in New
•Guinea, but would start a new Germanic
policy in the North Pacific.

Thus we see that Japan, China, England,
and Germany, might become important actors
in the China Sea, while Russia and China
would be actors behind the scenes in Man-
chooria and Mongolia.

The whole result of a historical study of
the foreign policy of England and Russia tells
us that Russia has increased her influence by

1 In 1873 a Japanese vessel was wrecked on the
eastern coast of Formosa and the crew massacred by the
savages. The Japanese Government sent an expedition
which was perfectly successful. Eighteen of the tribes in
Formosa were defeated and subjugated.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 67 .

annexing and conquering in every T direction
of the compass with Moscow as the centre
of the Empire. Peter the Great started in
the direction of the Baltic, i.e., north-west ;
Catherine II. towards the Crimea and Poland
in a south and westerly direction ; Alexander
I. confined his attention to the Balkans and
Caucasus, while Nicholas improved on the
same directions, and marched into Central
Asia, and since 1858 the Russian attention
has been turned on the East, i.e., the Pacific.

England, on the other hand, has added to
her fame by establishing the following naval
and coaling stations along the great highways
of trade: —

Heligoland in the North Sea, the Channel
Islands, Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus, Perim,
Aden, Ceylon, Singapore, Hong Kong and
Labuan ; the Accession Islands, St. Helena,

1 The Russian frontier has been advanced toward
Berlin, Dresden, Munich, Vienna, and Paris —

about 700 miles

Towards Constantinople „ 500 „

„ Stockholm „ 630 „

„ Teheran ,, 1000 „

„ Peshawar „ 1300 „

6S JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

and the Cape of Good Hope, in Africa ;
the Bermuda Islands, Halifax, the West
Indies, especially Jamaica, and the Falkland
Islands in America, besides many important
islands in the South and West Pacific.

By means of these, in the present days of
steam, she has been able to maintain her
place as the Queen of the Maritime World — a
position superior to Russia, although the
latter country is lord of one-seventh of the
globe.

With such great rivals, we can surely
predict that at some future time Russia will
work her way into Manchooria and Mongolia
to the Yellow Sea and attack the North
Pacific. " Everything is obtained by pains,"
said Peter the Great, in 1722; "even India
was not easily found after the long journey
round the Cape of Good Hope." J To
this Soimonf, who afterwards devoted
himself for seventeen years to the explora-
tion of Siberia, and was its governor, said
that " Russia had a much nearer road to
India, and explained the water system of
1 E. Schuyler's " Peter the Great," vol. ii. p. 592.

JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC. 69

Siberia, how easily and with how little land
carriage goods could be sent from Russia
to the Pacific and then by ships to India."
Peter replied, " It is a long distance and of
no use yet awhile." But in the present days
of telegraphy and railroads it is not a great
distance at all.

England will without doubt occupy Formosa
in order to uphold her power in the same
quarter. The result it would be almost
impossible to foretell. But this fact remains
a certainty that will one day come to pass,
that England and Russia will at some future
period fight for supremacy in the North
Pacific. Japan lies between the future
combatants !

PART II.
THE EASTERN QUESTION.

FOREIGN POLICY OF ENGLAND DURING THE
SIXTEENTH, SEVENTEENTH, AND EIGHTEENTH
CENTURIES.

The Spanish Empire, its power, and its decline, — Com-
mercial rivalry of England and Holland — The ascen-
dency of France ; threatened by the Grand Alliance —
The Spanish succession and the Bourbon league —
England s connection with the war of the Austrian
succession — The Seven Years1 War — Revival of the
Anglo- Bourbon struggle in the American and Napo-
leonic wars.

CHARLES V. of Spain in the height of his
power reigned over almost the whole of
Western Europe. Besides being King of
Spain he was Archduke of Austria, Duke
of Burgundy, and Lord of Spanish-America.
" The Emperor," said Sir William Cecil, " is
aiming at the sovereignty of Europe which
•cannot be obtained without the suppression

74 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

of the reformed religion, and unless he crushes
the English nation he cannot crush the
Reformation." Perceiving this important
fact, Charles directed his attention to Eng-
land, and offered the hand of his son Philip
to Mary of England who was anxious to
bring back the Catholic Faith into England.

Their marriage took place in 1554, and
proved a great help towards re-establishing
the Papal supremacy in England, besides
making Spain and England strong political
allies.

Charles V. abdicated in 1555 and sp^nt the
rest of his life in seclusion at San Yusti, and
the great part of his dominions, viz., the
Colonies, Italy, and the Netherlands descended
to his son, Philip II., who was by his marriage
with Mary nominal King of England.

On the childless death of Mary the English
crown descended to Elizabeth in 1558. Philip
thereupon offered marriage to her, but the
virgin queen wisely declined. England was
by this refusal emancipated from Papal
interference and the tyrannies of Philip,
and Elizabeth resolved to carry out her

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 7S

religious and political views independently.
Her doctrinal l reform and foreign policy
naturally made Spain her bitter enemy.

In the Netherlands Philip's general conduct
raised the inhabitants to revolt, and under the
leadership of the Prince of Orange they soon
obtained a strong position, and eventually, in
1648, after a long and protracted struggle,
their independence was recognized.

Thus the two great sea powers of Philip's
age were both common enemies against the
arrogance of Spain and were consequently
united.

In France a similar religious struggle, fierce
and bitter, was raging. Civil war was rampant
and atrocities numerous, the massacre on St.
Bartholomew's Day being a notable example.
In 1585 the Catholic party formed the
" League," whose main objects were the
annihilation of the reformed party, and the

1 " The separation of the Church of England from
that of Rome, formally accomplished under Henry VIII. y
was a political and legal rather than a religious reforma-
tion. The doctrinal changes followed under Edward VI.
and Elizabeth" (Taswell-Langmead's "English Consti-
tutional History," p. 399).

76 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

elevation of the Guises to the French throne
through an alliance with Philip II. of Spain.
Its manifesto stated that French subjects
were not bound to recognize a prince who
was not a Catholic. The death of Henri III.
made the situation worse, for two candidates
for the French throne appeared, — Henry of
Navarre, who was supported by the Huguenots
and the Cardinal of Bourbon, whom the
Leaguers followed, while Philip II. laid claim
to the throne on behalf of his daughter by
his third marriage with Elizabeth of Valois,
sister of Henri III. Hence, after the acces-
sion of the House of Bourbon, a coalition of
England, Holland, and France was formed
against Philip II. of Spain, and from 1600
to 1660 the European coalition was England,
Holland, and France, versus the Spanish
Empire.

In the meantime Spain had acquired
Portugal in 1580, by which both countries
became one state, and Philip II. sovereign of
the whole oceanic world. Portugal for sixty
years remained a dependency of Spain, and
then the Spanish Empire had attained to vast

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 77

and unwieldy dimensions. She could no
longer defend her colonies from foreign inva-
sion and plunder. The Dutch established
themselves wherever they pleased, and
plundered and occupied most of the
Portuguese possessions. It has been truly
said that the Colonial Empire of Holland
was founded at the expense first of Portugal,
and ultimately of Spain.1

England at this time was rapidly rising
into the front rank of European nations. In
1588 the " Invincible Armada " appeared in
the English Channel and was annihilated
and disgraced. This was the introduction
to that English colonial greatness on which
the sun never sets.

1 " In the sixteenth century all Europe was aghast at
the designs of Philip II. of Spain. He had the great mines
of the New World, or at least levied a heavy tax on their
produce. He seemed to be possessed of inexhaustible
riches. He was baffled, beaten, made bankrupt by the
Dutch, in whose country there was not an ounce of
natural gold or silver, who got all their money by trade,
were rapidly becoming the richest nation of Europe when
Philip had ruined Spain and brought down the Genoese
traders, on his declaring himself bankrupt " (J. E.
Thorold Rogers's, "The Economic Interpretation of
History," p. 95).

78 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Then came the beginning of the fall of the
Spanish Empire. In 1640 Cardinal Richelieu,
the ablest French statesman, provoked Portugal
to rebel, his object being the aggrandizement
of his own country abroad. The revolt proved
successful under John of Braganza, and again
Portugal posed as a nation. This proved a
deadly blow to Spanish power, and Cromwell
finally crushed her power by his invincible
foreign policy. He seized Jamaica while
Charles II. acquired Bombay.

This gradual decay of Spain had a
corresponding inspiriting effect on England
and Holland. Both became commercial and
colonial rivals one with another. Ashley
Cooper said, c< Holland is our great rival in
the ocean and in the New World. Let us
destroy her though she be a Protestant
Power ; let us destroy her with the help of
a Catholic Power." r

1 " Till this time our merchants were struggling to gain
a footing and open up trade between England and
different quarters of the globe, and endeavouring to prove
that the encouragement of trade was for the royal honour
and benefit . . . and their interests coincided with the
national ambition of out- doing the Dutch, who would

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 79

The great naval victories of England and
the Navigation Acts, 1651, 1663, and 1672, T
crushed the Dutch carrying trade and navy,
and England now began to assume the
supremacy of the whole oceanic world which
has from that time never departed from her.

However, France gradually filled the breach
left by Holland and Spain, and became a great
-naval rival of England. The strength of all
.the nations round her had been considerably
weakened by the Thirty Years' War, while
.her commercial and manufacturing progress
soon made her one of the strongest European
Powers.

From 1660 to 1672 may be regarded as the

not acknowledge our sovereignty on the sea, and of thus
attaining a mercantile supremacy throughout the world "
(Dr. Cunningham's " Growth of English Industry and
Commerce," p. 325).

1 (i) 1651. That the importation of goods into
England, except in English ships, or in the ships of the
nation producing the goods, was forbidden.

(2) 1663. That the colonies should receive no
.goods whatsoever by foreign vessels.

(3) 1672. That all the principal articles of com-
merce should be prohibited from being imported into
England unless by English ships manned by a crew of
whom at least three-quarters were English subjects.

So JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

period of the great national rise of France.
Louis XIV. laid claim to Belgium and
Burgundy in 1665 on the death of Philip IV.
of Spain, and in order to enforce his claim his
army entered Flanders and Burgundy, but
owing to the pressure of the Triple Alliance *
the unfavourable Peace of Aix-la-Chapelle
was concluded.

However, later on Louis broke the Triple
Alliance and secured the valuable assistance
of England and Spain, and with the assistance
of the former nation he made a concerted
attack upon Holland. France had now
reached the topmost rung of the ladder
between 1678 and 1688.

About this period the struggle against
absolute monarchy was nearly concluded in
England, and was further strengthened in
1689 by the Declaration of Rights. The
English crown was offered to William of
Orange and Mary and accepted by them.
Already this personal union had caused an
alliance to be formed between England and
Holland, at that time the two great Protestant

1 England, Holland, and Sweden.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 81

Powers of Europe, against France the great
Roman Catholic upholder.

If France had remained quiet during the
above-mentioned internal discord, England
would have been unable to form the " Grand
Alliance." Thus Louis committed a great
error in assuming an offensive attitude
against the two Protestant Powers. This
caused a coalition to be formed against him
of England, Holland, Spain, and Austria.

This new system in Europe existed from
1688 to 1 700. Then new complications arose,
for Charles II., King of Spain, died childless,
and the extinction of the Spanish House of
Hapsburg seemed to be near at hand. The
question of a Spanish successor now occupied
the minds of the European cabinets after the
Peace of Ryswick.

There were three claimants : Louis XIV.,
Leopold I., and the Electoral Prince of
Bavaria. The dominions of the Spanish
sovereign were still extensive, viz., Spain
itself, the Milan territory, Italy, the Nether-
lands, and Spanish-America. To unite the
Spanish monarchy with that of France or

«2 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Austria, would destroy the European balance
of power. Consequently a general council
with regard to the succession took place, and
the First Partition Treaty was drawn up.
Charles II. of Spain, however, made a will,
appointing Louis' grandson, Philip of Anjou,
as his successor, so Louis XIV. determined
to uphold the will rather than the treaty.

In 1701 the Duke of Anjou was peacefully
proclaimed king as Philip V. Louis XIV.
on hearing this boasted that " II n'y a plus
de Pyrenees." This Bourbon succession in
Spain changed the European system, and
henceforth we have England, Holland, and
Austria, as opposed to France and Spain.

The Duke of Marlborough, who combined
the qualities of a general, diplomatist, and
minister skilfully together, was the leader of
the Second Grand Alliance against the
Houses of Bourbon.

The inability of France to defend the
Spanish Empire, followed by the War of the
Spanish Succession, paved the way for the
Peace of Utrecht (1713). By this treaty the
Bourbons lost Italy and the Low Countries, but

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 83

retained the throne of Spain, thus still leaving
that country open to the influence of France.
Hence the permanent alliance of France
and Spain was formed in the eighteenth
century.

Meanwhile Holland had fallen into decay
through internal exhaustion caused by her
struggle against foreign enemies ; thus
England had taken her place as the great
maritime and colonial power. Thus we see
the struggle between England and France
(supported by Spain) for the oceanic world
in the eighteenth century.

By the Utrecht Treaty, France ceded
to England Newfoundland, Arcadia, and
Hudson's Bay territory, while Spain also
ceded Gibraltar, the Minorca Island, and
the Asiento, the occupation of the two former
making another bitter enemy to England.

Spain had already a hatred of English
trade with her colonies in America, so that
only a single English ship was conceded by
the Treaty of Utrecht, giving thereby only a
limited right of trade in South America to
England. But this was evaded by a vast

84 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

system of smuggling which arose and proved
a constant source of dispute between England
and Spanish revenue officers and rendered
peace almost impossible.

In 1733 the first secret pacte de famille
had been concluded between France and
Spain for the ruin of English maritime trade.
The American coast was keenly watched, and
the result was "The Jenkins' Ear War," 1739.

Charles VI., having no son, established an
order of succession by the Pragmatic Sanc-
tion, signed by nearly all the European
Powers, by which his daughter, Maria Theresa,
was to succeed to all the hereditary dominions
of Hapsburg. But on his death two
claimants appeared on the scene — the Elector
of Bavaria and Philip V. of Spain.

Walpole did his best to form a Grand
Alliance between Hanover and Prussia, also
between England, Holland, and Austria
However, Frederick's claim to Silesia being
refused by Austria, the French and Prussian
armies crossed the Rhine, 1741. Thus
France began the War of the Austrian Suc-
cession. In 1743 the Battle of Dettingen

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 85

was fought between England and France, the
former fighting on behalf of Maria Theresa,
and as yet feeling her way carefully before
she was brought into direct conflict with the
latter Power.

After the Treaty of Worms the question
at issue was changed to that of naval
supremacy, and the War of the Austrian
Succession fell into the background.

In 1744, after an attempted invasion of
England on behalf of the Pretender, France
declared war against both England and
Austria. This was bad policy, for if she
had fought against one enemy at a
time she would have stood a far better
chance of crushing England's power. Pro-
fessor Seeley says, "If we compare together
those seven wars between 1688 and 1815, we
shall be struck with the fact that most of
them were double wars, and that there is one
aspect between France and England, another
.between France and Germany. ... It is
France," says he, "that suffers by it." l

England and Holland firmly allied with
1 Prof. Seeley's "Expansion of England," p. 95.

86 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

one another, and German troops were
subsidized by England.

Against this alliance the second secret
pacte de famille was founded.

Battles were fought on all sides, by land
and sea, both in Europe and America. In
spite of French successes at Fontenoy and,
Laufeldt, she was severely defeated both on
the sea and in America. Louisburg fell, Cape
Breton Island was captured, and many other
losses sustained. At length the Treaty of
Aix-la-Chapelle brought a nominal peace into*
the oceanic world, in 1748.

In 1756 this nominal peace came to aa
end, and the Seven Years' War x was fought
out, both in the Old and New Worlds; Pitt

1 " There was between England and France during the
Seven Years' War the most disastrous struggle in which
France was ever engaged. For all the wars in Europe,,
from the Peace of Utrecht to the outbreak of the great
Continental War, were waged on behalf of monopolies of
commerce, or, to be more accurate, monopolies of market,,
for success meant the exclusion of the beaten nation.
from the markets now secured by the victorious rival.
At the end of the Seven Years' War France was stripped
of nearly every colony she possessed. At the beginning
of it she was the rival of England in North America and

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 87

the elder then appeared as a great actor on
England's side, and used his great talents to-
crush down the French Colonial Empire, and
to obtain for his country the sole mastery of
the oceanic world.

He was essentially a war Minister : "The
war wras vigorously carried on throughout
1758 in every part of the globe where
French could be found, and in 1759 Pitt's
energy and his tact in choosing men every-
where were rewarded by the extraordinary
success by land and sea." l

The glorious death of Wolfe on the
Heights of Abraham was followed by the
surrender of Montreal and the brilliant
victory of Plassey in India by Clive over
the French. Pitt assured his countrymen
that "they should not be losers " (in giving
pecuniary assistance to Frederick the Great)
"and that he would conquer America for them
in Germany."

in India. At the end of it she had scarce a foothold in
either " (J. E. Thorold Rogers, " The Economic Inter-
pretation of History," p. no),

1 Macaulay's famous Essay on the Earl of Chatham.

88 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

This proved true. In 1762 the fall of
the French Colonial Empire occurred, and
England obtained Canada and India.

This wonderful statesman 1 undoubtedly
made England the first country in the world.

Three Wars of Revenge.

"A height of prosperity and glory unknown
to any former age,"2 was reached in England
during the administration of Chatham. Now
the tide of fortune began to run against
England.

The passing of the famous Stamp Act, and
many other " repeated injuries and usurpa-
tions," 3 made the relations between England

1 "His (the elder Pitt) greatness is throughout
identified with the Expansion of England ; he is a states-
man of Greater Britain. It is in the buccaneering war
with Spain that he sows his political wild oats ; his glory
is won in the great colonial duel with France ; his old
age is spent in striving to avert schism in Greater
Britain" (Prof. Seeley's "Expansion of England,"
p. 144).

2 The epitaph on Chatham's monument in West-
minster Abbey.

3 The declaration of American Independence.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 89

and the American Colonies virtually hostile.
At last the Colonies revolted, and it gave
Spain and France the long- wished -for op-
portunity of taking revenge upon England.
France and Spain formed the third pacte
de /ami lie, and assisted the insurgent
Colonies, and the independence of the United
States was acknowledged in 1783.

In 1789 the French Revolution broke out,
and the first effect felt in England was the
breaking-up of the Whig party.

In 1792 Austria and Prussia invaded
France in order to put down the Republicans
in that country. In retaliation France
determined to declare war against all
countries governed by kings, which principle
she established by the " Decree of November
1 9th," and in 1793 she declared war against
England and Holland.

The younger Pitt had now come to the
front. He was an economist and advocated
a peace policy. In the spring of 1792 he
reduced the navy and confidently looked
forward to at least fifteen years of peace.
There is no doubt that if France had

90 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

remained quiet his hopes would have proved
correct, and that the west bank of the
Rhine would now be under French rule.

But France was eager to revenge past
injuries put upon her by England ; and, as if
in answer to her desires, the second Alex-
ander the Great appeared in Napoleon, and
began "alarming the Old World with his,
dazzling schemes of aggrandizement."

Against England his whole energies were
directed. " Let us be masters," said he, " of
the Channel for six hours and we are
masters of the world." r In 1798, he
captured Malta, occupied Egypt, and under-
took a campaign in Syria, as a furtherance to-
his desires of obtaining India, at the same
time retaining his ideas with regard to

1 "As in the American War, France avenges on
England her expulsion from the New World, so under
Napoleon she makes Titanic efforts to recover her lost
place there. This, indeed, is Napoleon's fixed view with
regard to England. He sees in England never the
island, the European state, but always the world Empire,,
the network of dependencies and colonies and islands
covering every sea, among which he was himself
destined to find his prison and his grave " (Seeley's
" Expansion of England," p. 33).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 91

England. Malta to Egypt, Egypt to India,
India to England.

In 1802 a momentary universal peace
occurred. But Napoleon could not rest, his
ambition spurred him on. His anger was
again kindled by the English retention of
Malta, after his defeat in Egypt, and he saw
if Malta was wrested from him his lofty
schemes would be undermined. In 1803 he
again declared war against England and
Holland. He arrested all the English
residents in France between the ages of
sixteen and sixty and kept them confined.

The younger Pitt was just the statesman fit.
to cope with him, and frustrate his aims. He
aimed at a European coalition,1 by which all
threatening dangers from the overwhelming
greatness of one nation might be averted.

1 The first coalition of England, Prussia, Holland, and
Sweden, was for the purpose of keeping the European
Peace.

The second coalition (1799-1801), composed of
Russia, England, Austria, Portugal, Naples, and the
Ottoman Empire.

The third coalition (1805), composed of England,
Russia, Austria, and Sweden.

92 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

On October 21, 1805, tne glorious victory
at Trafalgar, the outcome and consummation
of Nelson's inspiring command, " England
expects every man to do his duty," broke the
naval power of France. And yet this was
followed by the capitulation of Ulm, the
defeat at Austerlitz, and the subsequent
Treaty of Presburg, which broke up the
coalition of England, Russia, and Austria,
and seriously affected Pitt's health thereby.
Truly, " Austerlitz killed Pitt." l

At once Napoleon proceeded to turn the
whole forces he had on the Continent against
England, especially after the Peace of Tilsit,
(1807). He first attacked England with the
" Continental System," i.e., he prohibited all
direct and indirect European trade with the

1 " Though he was still but forty-seven, the hollow
voice and wasted frame of the great Minister had long
told that death was near, and the blow to his hopes
proved fatal. 'Roll up that map,' he said, pointing to
the map of Europe, 'it will not be wanted these ten
years.' Once only he rallied from stupor; and those
who bent over him caught a faint murmur of ' My
country ! How I leave my country ! ' " (Green's " Short
History of English People," p. 799).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 93

British Isles. This he confirmed by the
Decrees of Berlin (1806) and Milan (1807).

In 1812 he invaded Russia and entered
the famous city with the cry of " Moscow !
Moscow !" Even at that moment, however,
his real aim of attack was England, across
the Channel.

England was ever uppermost in his
thoughts. " He conquers Germany, but
why ? Because Austria and Russia, subsi-
dized by England, march against him while
he is brooding at Boulogne over the conquest
of England. When Prussia was conquered,
what was his first thought ? That now he
has a new weapon against England, since he
can impose the Continental System upon all
Europe. Why does he occupy Spain and
Portugal ? It is because they are maritime
countries, with fleets and colonies that may be
used against England." :

Napoleon was driven out of Moscow by
fire, and his return march turned literally into
a defeat, while his plan of a direct attack in

1 Prof. Seeley's " Expansion of England," p. 105.

94 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

England, through Belgium, three years after,
was frustrated at Waterloo.

Thus the scene of the great Napoleonic
drama in English history closed on June
1 8, 1815.

II.

FOREIGN POLICY OF RUSSIA DURING THE
REIGNS OF PETER THE GREAT, CATHERINE
II., AND ALEXANDER I.

J*eter the Great, and establishment of Russian power on
the Baltic — Consequent collision with the Northern
States and the Maritime Powers — Catheri?ie II. and
Poland — First partition — Russia reaches the Black
Sea — Russo- Austria?! alliance against Turkey opposed
by Pitt — Second and third partitions of Poland — Rise
of Prussia — Alexander I. and the conquest of Turkey
— Treaty of Tilsit — Peace of Bucharest — Congress of
Vienna — French influence in the East destroyed.

Peter the Great (1689-1725).

THE Russian territory now extends over one-
seventh of the globe, and Alexander III.
rules over more than 100,000,000 souls.
Russia is a powerful political rival not only
of England alone, but of all the European
Powers.1

1 Napoleon, at St. Helena, prophesied that before a cen-
tury was over Europe would be Cossack or Republican.

96 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

However, on Peter the Great's accession to
the throne, his country covered an area of
only 265,000 square miles, and no harbours
were to be found either on the Baltic or the
Black Sea. This was felt to be a serious
obstacle for a rising Power. Peter himself
said, in the preface to the " Maritime Regu-
lations " : " For some years I had the fill of
my desires on Lake Pereyaslavl, but finally
it got too narrow for me. I then went to the
Kubensky Lake, but that was too shallow.
I then decided to see the open sea and began
often to beg the permission of my mother to
go to Archangel." l His first and great
object was to establish harbours on the Baltic
or the Black Sea.

The Turks were the preliminary object of
his attack. The first campaign against Azof
(1695) proved a failure, but a new campaign
was started again in 1696, and the Czar's
" bravery and his genius " were rewarded with

1 " The English victory at La Hogue, and the revival
of the trade with Holland, had much to do with Peter's
visit to Archangel " (E. Schuyler's " Peter the Great,"
vol. i. p. 276).

THE EXPANSION OF RUSSIA IN EUROPE

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 99

a great victory over Azof. Here begins the
modern history of Russia.

Immediately after the capture of Azof
Peter determined to carry out his design of
creating a large fleet on the Black Sea. For
the purpose, " no sooner had the festivities
in Moscow ended than, at a general
council of the boyars, it was decided to send
3,000 families of peasants and 3,000 streltsi
and soldiers to populate the empty town of
Azof and firmly to establish the Russian
power at the mouth of the Don. At a second
council Peter stated the absolute necessity
for a large rleet, and apparently with such
convincing arguments, that the assembly
decided that one should be built. Both
civilians and clergy were called upon for
sacrifices." l

Peter also sent fifty men of the highest
families in Russia to Italy, Holland, and
England, to study the art of ship-building.
Peter himself visited Holland and England
that he might learn ship-building. " One
thing, however, he could not learn there, and
1 E. Schuyler's " Peter the Great," vol. i. p. 323.

ioo JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

that was the construction of galleys and
galliots, such as were used in the Medi-
terranean, and would be serviceable in the
Bosphorus and on the coast of the Crimea.
For this he desired to go to Venice." l This
clearly shows us that Peter had conceived
the idea of establishing a strong navy on the
Black Sea.

The revolt of the streltsi recalled him
home ; however, he found no difficulty in
suppressing the insurrection.

After this, he sent an envoy to the
Ottoman Empire to obtain permission for
the Russian fleet to enter -the Black Sea, to
which the Porte replied : " The Black Sea
and all its coasts are ruled by the Sultan
alone. They have never been in the posses-
sion of any other Power, and since the Turks
have gained sovereignty over this sea, from
time immemorial no foreign ship has ever
sailed its water, nor ever will sail them."

Meanwhile Charles XII., King of Sweden,
began to assume an attitude of hostility to
Peter, and the Battle of Narva was fought,
1 E. Schuyler's " Peter the Great," vol. i. p. 368.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 101

where Peter was miserably defeated.- ! "After
this war, Charles made Russia the great
object of his attack instead of Poland. He
said, " I will treat with the Czar at Moscow."
Peter replied, " My brother Charles wishes
to play the part of Alexander, but he will
not find me Darius." The Battle of Pultawa
(1709) soon decided Peter's superiority, and
the Peace of Nystadt (1721) added the
Baltic provices and a number of islands in
the Baltic to Russia.

In 1703 " a great window for Russia to
look out at Europe"- — so Count Algaratti
called St. Petersburg — was made by Peter on
the marshes of the Neva. This step firmly
established Russian power on the Baltic.

But to establish Russian power on the
Baltic at all was as great a mistake as ever
has been committed by so shrewd a states-
man as Peter the Great. The predominance
of Russia in the Baltic with her strong navy
threatened the interest of the commerce and
carrying-trade of the English and Dutch.
Hence it was natural enough that England
and Holland, two great maritime powers,

102 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

should hdV'e'joined to protect their interest in
the Baltic as well as the integrity of Sweden
against Russian aggression. In the case of
the Northern War, England had formed an
alliance with Sweden and sent her fleet to
the Baltic under command of Admiral Morris
to prevent the Russian sway on those waters.
Had Peter thought less of the importance
of the Baltic, and concentrated his energies
on obtaining a sure foothold in the Crimea,
Constantinople would now be a Russian
southern capital.

Catherine II. (1762-1796).

The Seven Years' War had been brought
to a finish when Catherine II. ascended the
Russian throne. The next great European
complication was brought about by the affairs
of Poland.

On the death of Augustus III., Stainslaius
Poniatowski was elected King of Poland, and
at the request of Prussia and Russia the
dissenters, adherents of the Greek Church
and the Protestants, received all civil rights.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 103

In opposition to this a Confederation of
Bar was formed in 1 768, with the object of
dethroning the King. Catherine now began
to interfere with Poland on behalf of the Greek
Christians, and supported the King with
her Russian army. This interference made
her practically mistress of Poland. Turkey,
an ally of the Confederacy, being alarmed at
the growing Russian influence and being
urged on by France, declared war upon
Russia in order to resist the progress of
Catherine in Poland ; but this proved dis-
astrous, as she was miserably defeated, both
on land and sea, and brought to the verge
of ruin. This Russian success alarmed
Western Europe, and especially the two
neighbouring Christian Powers, Prussia and
Austria, each of whom had a special interest
in the existence of Poland and Turkey.
Catherine would not make peace without
acquiring territory as a compensation for her
exertions and outlay, while Prussia and
Austria would not allow her to do this unless
they acquired a certain amount of territory
themselves. Hence the First Partition of

104 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Poland took place, by which the three Powers
secured equal aggrandizement, Russia re-
ceiving the eastern part of Lithuania as her
share.

In 1774 the Treaty of Kutschouk Kain-
ardji was concluded with Turkey, by which
the independence of the Mongol Tartars in
the Crimea was acknowledged by the Sultan ;
Russia obtained the right of protection over
all the Christian subjects of the Porte within
a certain limit, and also the right of free
navigation in all Turkish waters for trading
vessels. This treaty firmly planted Russia
on the northern coasts of the Black Sea.

In 1783 the Crimea was incorporated with
Russia, and in 1787 Catherine visited the
southern part of Russia as far as Kherson, on
the Black Sea. Joseph II. of Austria, on
hearing of her approach to his dominions,
hastened to meet her, and together they
journeyed through the Crimea, the Czarina
unfolding to the Emperor both her own plans
and those of Potemkin, her favourite, viz.,
to expel all the Turks from Europe, re-
establish the old Empire of Greece, and

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 105

place her younger grandson Constantine on
the throne of Constantinople. Joseph fell
in with her view, and it was hinted that
something like a Western Empire should
be also constituted and placed under the
Austrian sway. In this way a division of the
Ottoman Empire was contemplated between
the two countries. This soon aroused the
suspicions of Turkey, and war was again
declared. But now it was two against one,
and the fate of Turkey again seemed sealed.
William Pitt was the first statesman who
directly opposed Russia and tendered assis-
tance to Turkey against Russian encroaching
power. His foreign policy of opposition to
Russia has been followed more or less by
generations of English Ministers. The
Triple Alliance of England, Prussia, and
Holland was formed by Pitt against the
" Colossus of the North," in order to preserve
the balance of power in Europe, and the death
of Joseph II., saved Turkey again. Pitt, by
means of this Alliance, demanded that a peace
be made between Russia and Turkey on the
status quo ante helium, and threatened to

io6 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

maintain his demand by arms. The English
people, however, cared very little about a
Russian invasion of Turkey, while Catherine
disregarded Pitt's threats.

Soon after a peace between Russia and
Turkey was concluded at Jassy, by which
Turkey ceded Oczakow and the land be-
tween the Dnieper, Bug, and Dniester, con-
taining several good harbours, and notably
Odessa ; the protectorate of Russia over
Tiflis and Kartalinia was also recognized.

By the above-mentioned acquisitions she
felt certain that very soon Constantinople
would be in her hands. However, a
nearer, and, in her opinion, a more im-
portant matter engaged her attention. In
1792 the new Constitution of Poland was
drawn up by Ignaz Potocki, converting the
Elective Monarchy into an hereditary one,
the House of Saxony supplying a dynasty of
kings. The Confederacy of Jargowitz, which
was formed in opposition to this new Consti-
tution, called in the help of Russia.

This now seemed to be a grand oppor-
tunity for Russia to finally annex Poland,

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 107

because the deaths of Frederick the Great
(1786) and Joseph (1790), and the French
Revolution, which occupied the attention of
all Western Europe, set the Czarina free from
her most watchful rivals. A Russian army
invaded Poland, and the new Constitution
was repealed. Prussian troops also entered
Poland under the pretence of suppressing
Jacobinism, and Russia again found herself
frustrated, and concluded a Second Partition
(1793) with Prussia, by which she received
Lithuania, Volhynin, and Podolia.

In 1795 the Polish nation rebelled, under
the leadership of Xoscruscko, and this led to
a Third Partition between Russia, Prussia,
and Austria, and the former Power added
181,000 square miles, with 6,000,000 in-
habitants, together with Curland, to her
already vast dominions.

By this last Partition a road of aggression
was open towards Sweden on the north-west,
and towards Turkey on the south.

Many combined circumstances led Russia
to assume an aggressive policy towards
Turkey specially. Sweden, or rather Fin-

io8 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

land, was not of sufficient importance as a
prey to the "northern bear " —a warmer
climate was also wanted. Catherine had al-
ready discovered the mistaken policy of Peter
the Great, who had spent all his energy
in getting the strongholds of the Baltic
in opposition to Charles XII. of Sweden.
Russian sway on the Baltic meant a direct
opposition from two great sea Powers, viz.,
England and Holland, whose interests would
suffer thereby. A striking proof of the
opposition was seen in the case of the
Northern War.

The Partition of Poland produced another
stray Power in the Baltic, to wit, Prussia.

Previous to the Partition of Poland,
Prussia Proper and her dominions, Branden-
berg and Silesia, were separated, Poland
being between them. The First Partition
joined the Prussian kingdom to the main
body of the Monarchy ; by the Second and
Third Partitions Prussia obtained the then
South Prussia and East Prussia, thereby
uniting all into one compact body.

Thus unconsciously a powerful Russian

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 109

enemy was being formed in the Baltic. Thus
Russia had three great enemies — England,
Holland, and Prussia, joined by Sweden and
Denmark, on the Baltic.

Catherine had already obtained a firm footing
on the Black Sea coast, and was confident of
her ability to occupy Constantinople and
make it a Russian southern capital; the French
Revolution attracting the attention of Western
Europe, the Ottoman Empire was left at the
mercy of Russia. Again a Russian occupa-
tion would give a fine prospect of extending
Russian authority into Danubian territory,
Central Asia, and Asia Minor.

So we may conclude that Catherine's
annexation of Poland was only a step towards
attaining her great aim, and gave her time to
mature her plans.

At this juncture Catherine died, and was
succeeded by Paul (1796). He reversed his
mother's policy by concluding an alliance
with Turkey against Napoleon, seeing that
the latter's policy was to destroy the Turkish
Empire for the benefit of France. He
changed his policy later, however, after his

1 10 JAPAN AND THE PA CIFIC.

unsuccessful campaign in Holland, and threw
himself into Napoleon's arms by establishing
an armed neutrality in the north against Eng-
land.

Alexander I. (1801-1825).

Catherine died (1796), but her plan did
not perish with her. Alexander I. proved a
faithful expounder of the late Czarinas
schemes.

His strong - handed policy was chiefly
directed against Armenia and the Persian
frontier, although the Danubian territory,
Poland and Finland, did not escape his
watchful eyes. Mingreliaand Imeretia were
conquered in 1803, Shiroan in 1805-1806.

At last Alexander's policy took a definite
form at the Treaty of Tilsit (1807), for by
the first provision " Russia was to take pos-
session of Turkey in Europe, and push on
her conquests in Asia as she thought proper."
This secret treaty, which was made with
Napoleon I., caused great uneasiness in
England, and a coolness sprang up between

THE EASTERN QUESTION. in

the two Powers (1807-1812), although Eng-
land had adhered to an Anglo-Russian
Alliance during Chatham's administration,
and Alexander joined the coalition of 1805.

In 1809 Russia gained Finland, with the
whole of East Bothnia and part of West
Bothnia, as far as the River Tornea, by the
Treaty of Friedrichsham. The Peace of
Bucharest (1812) was the result of Eng-
land's mediation, by which Russia added
Bessarabia, and the Pruth was made the
boundary between Russia and Turkey, while
Russia gave up Moldavia and Wallachia,
which at that time were occupied by her.

The quarrel between Russia and France
concerning the " Continental System " l

1 " Upon the Continental System he (Napoleon) had
staked everything. He had united all Europe in the
crusade against England; no state, least of all such a
state as Russia, could withdraw from the system with-
out practically joining England. Nevertheless, we may
wonder that, if he felt obliged to make war upon Russia,
he should have chosen to wage it in the manner he did,
by an overwhelming invasion " (Seeley's " A Short
History of Napoleon the Great," p. 169). Prof. Seeley
also told the author that " if the Continental System had
existed a little longer England would have been ruined,

ii2 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

brought about a French invasion of Russia
by 678,000 men (1812). But Russia coped
successfully with her powerful foe.

The Congress of Vienna (1814-1815) met
to restore the balance of power and regulate
the European relations, and also established
the " Pentarchy of the Great Powers." Eight
nations signed the Act of the Congress of
Vienna, by which Russia was, generally
speaking, the greatest gainer, for she received
the greater part of the Grand Duchy of
Warsaw.

At the Congress of Vienna, Castlereagh
(the English representative) evidently had in
view three aims — (i) to prevent any revival of
the Continental System ; (2) to protect Eng-
lish communication with India; and (3) to
maintain her supremacy in the Mediter-
ranean. For the first aim, England obtained
Heligoland, and the kingdom of the Nether-
lands was formed, and " the surrender of Java
was made to the Dutch by way of increasing
the wealth and power of that kingdom, and so

because it seems to me that a revolution would have
taken place in England.''

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 113 *

helping to re-establish the due counterpoise
to French power which nature has given to
the possession of the Low Countries " ; for
the second aim, England also obtained the
possession of Cape Colony (from the Dutch)
and the Mauritius (from France) to render
safe the road to India ; and for the third
aim, England retained Malta, and also the
seven Ionian islands were brought under
English protection.

The Battle of Waterloo stamped out
Napoleon's l ambitious schemes. French
power and influence in Eastern Europe
vanished with Napoleon, and from that time
France has not fully recovered, and is there-
fore unable to settle the Eastern Question
for her benefit. The Napoleonic plan of
occupying Constantinople has been stolen
by Russia.

1 " Napoleon's great mistake was that he had laid his
plan for an invasion of England and a war in Europe at
the same time " (Seeley's " A Short History of Napoleon
the Great," p. 115).

III.

THE NEW EUROPEAN SYSTEM.

77^6' concert of the Great Powers ; its aims— It does not
protect small states from its own members, e.g.,.
Polish Revolution — How far can it solve the Turkish
question ?

NAPOLEON THE GREAT fell at the Battle of
.Waterloo, 1815. The "concert of the Great
Powers," the primary object of which is to
avoid the recurrence of universal war in
Europe, was first established at the Congress
of Vienna in the same year. This new
European System is, however, only applicable
to the case of a small Power or Powers, but
not to the Great Powers themselves. For
instance, in the Schleswig-Holstein, as well
as the Franco-Prussian War, none of the
other Great Powers could interfere, and
matters were entirely left to themselves.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 117

But in the case of a lesser state or states
becoming breaker of the peace, the Great
Powers have never hesitated to step in and
settle the difference according to their mutual
agreement. We see good instance of it in
the Independence of Belgium

The " concert of the Great Powers " is
actually a second phase of the Holy Alliance,
and the new system has usually its object the
protection of a smaller state against the
larger. Greek Independence was a singular
example of the new system. The revolt of
Greece was entirely suppressed by the Sultan,
and there was no hope of freeing themselves
from the Turkish yoke. Though hardly
justifiable, the Great Powers at last inter-
fered, and made Greece an independent state.
The Independence of Italy was another
example.

Thus we see that under the new system
now prevalent in Europe, a smaller state at
least attains her end.

Let us examine the Polish Revolution
against Russia. The Poles said, Let us
revolt. We shall undoubtedly be beaten by

iiS JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Russia ; but we don't mind that at all,
because we shall at last attain our own end
through the interference of the Great Powers.
There was every reason for the event turning
out as they had calculated. Louis Napoleon
was the first European sovereign who inter-
fered in the Polish Revolution, and he invited
England to join him. England, however,
declined, owing to the difficulties of the situa-
tion. France, from her isolation, failed in
her desires, and Louis Napoleon lost his
European confidence. Truly the fall of the
French Empire began from that date.

This Polish Revolution disclosed another
characteristic of the new European System.
In the event of either country concerned
being one of the Great Powers, the system
is of no effect at all. The late dispute
between England and Portugal comes under
this heading.

One more interesting question needs in-
vestigation. How far this new European
System is applicable to the question of
Turkey, a country which may be placed
among the first-class Powers, and where

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 119

Christian inhabitants are in an inferior
position to the Turkish Mahomedans. This
is what I have to discuss in the following
five chapters.

IV.

GREEK INDEPENDENCE.

The Holy Alliance — The Greek insurrection — Interference
of the Three Powers — Battle of Nauarino — Treaty of
Adrianople — The policy of Nicholas I. j Treaty of
Unkiar Ikelessi — Turkey only saved by English and
French aid — Palmerston succeeds to Cannings policy.

ALEXANDER I., Emperor of Russia ; Francis,
Emperor of Austria; and William I., King
of Prussia, formed what was known as the
Holy Alliance, the first-named being the
chief instigator.

Its aim was to promote peace and good-
will among European nations, based upon
Christianity, although it seemed quite liable
to be abused for the benefit of absolute
monarchy, as in the case of Spain. Nearly
all the European Powers joined it, England :

1 The Prince Regent declared his personal adherence
to its principles.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 121

being the only one who declined. England's
argument was that " such interference is in-
consistent with the fundamental laws of
Great Britain. It must lead to a system
of continual interference incompatible with
European interests and the independence of
nations." l However, we are forced to admit
and acknowledge that the present system
of Europe is conducted on the same lines,
slightly modified, as the Holy Alliance.

At the end of the eighteenth century the
songs of the poet Rhegus and the revolu-
tionary influence of France (1789) stirred up
the Greeks to feelings of hatred against the
Porte.

In 1821 the Danubian Provinces (Rou-
mania), under the leadership of Hypisilands,
rose in rebellion, trusting to receiving as-
sistance from Alexander I., the instigator of
the Holy Alliance. But their hopes were
shattered, and Turkey soon crushed the
revolt. This was the only case in which
Russia did not interfere with Turkey in the
Danubian question.

1 Lord Castlereagh's Speech, 1812.

122 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

A little reflection, however, will show the
cause of the Russian non-interference in this
case. Alexander's power and influence were
declining, and Russia was filled internally
with discontent. Secret societies flourished
everywhere, and the Czar dreaded a revolu-
tion in his own country if he gave help to
the Danubian Provinces, which would be
approving a rebellion against a legitimate
sovereign.

The Greek rising in the Morea was
answered by a counter Turkish massacre of
Greeks in most of the principal cities of
Turkey, and Gregory, the head of the Greek
Church at Constantinople, was executed.
This caused great indignation in the Russias
and war appeared imminent, but owing to the
mediation of England and Austria it was
averted.

There is no doubt that Russia felt that it
was to her advantage to assist a revolutionary
movement, in order that she might secure as
much influence in Turkey as possible. But
Austrian interest in the Balkans was of vital
importance. Her policy was naturally to

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 123

oppose Russia in her desires, in order to keep
the Turkish honour unstained and use her as
a bulwark against Russia.

However, great enthusiasm was aroused,
not only in England, but also in Germany
and Switzerland.

Lord Byron died,1 and Shelley wrote for
the Greek cause. Lord Cochrane and Sir
Richard Church fought, while the German
poet, M tiller, and the Swiss Eynard, warmly
upheld the cause of the oppressed Greeks.

Notwithstanding this help, the Greeks
were far from fortunate, and the Sultan, with
the help of the Egyptians, captured Athens.
But their brave defence of Missolonghi
aroused the sympathies of the European
Powers.

Nicholas I. (1825-1855).

On the death of Alexander I. the Holy
Alliance vanished (1825), and Nicholas I.
ascended the throne (1825-1855). Now the

1 He was " engaged in the glorious attempt to restore
that country to her ancient freedom and renown " (The
Epitaph in the Church near Newstead).

124 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Greeks appealed to England for help, and
Canning l saw that it was the best policy for
England to assist Greece in order to control
the ambitious plans of Russia. Accordingly
he sent the Duke of Wellington as the
English representative, and a protocol was
signed at St. Petersburg by which Greece
was to remain tributary to the Sultan, but to
be independent as regards commercial rela-
tions. This protocol developed into the
Treaty of London, between England, France,
and Russia, by which the three Powers bound
themselves to act as mediators in the
Eastern question. The mediation of the
Powers was rejected by the Porte, but
accepted by the Greeks. The result was
that the Turko- Egyptian fleet was totally
destroyed at the Battle of Navarino by the

1 "In the present state of European politics there
seems to be in the East a sort of vacuum, which it is
advisable to supply, in order to counterbalance the
preponderance of the North. ... If anything like an
equilibrium is to be upheld, Greece must be supported.
Mr. Canning, I think, understands this, and intends to
behave towards Greece " (R. C. Jebb's " Modern
Greece," pp. 178-179).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 125

allies, and the Sultan retreated from the
Morea. Canning's death in 1827 gave Eng-
land an opportunity of retiring from active
participation in the alliance, especially as she
regarded the Battle of Navarino as an
4i untoward event," so Russia and Turkey
were left alone in conflict.

This, in my opinion, was a halfhearted
policy on the part of England, although the
Cabinet at that time could do no other,
because their tenets would not allow them to
help a revolutionary people against a country
governed by a legitimate sovereignty.

Now had the long-wished-for opportunity
arrived for Russia to carry into effect on
Turkey her long-cherished designs. Diebitch,
a Russian general, crossed the Balkans, and
soon captured Adrianople ; while Paskevitch
took Kars and Erzeroom in Asia.

These successes resulted in the Treaty of
Adrianople (1829), between Russia and Tur-
key. By the treaty l Russia gave back almost

1 This disadvantageous treaty for Russia was made
owing to the disappearance of immense numbers of
soldiers.

126 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

all her conquests to Turkey, only retaining"
the ports of Anapa and Poti, on the eastern
coast of the Black Sea, and the Protectorate
powers of the Czar over the Danubian
Principalities were confirmed and extended.
In return Turkey acquiesced in all the
provisions of the London Conference.

This made Greece practically an indepen-
dent state.

Nicholas pursued the policy of Alexander
I. with regard to the Asiatic boundaries, and
successfully carried on a war with Persia
from 1826 to 1828 which was terminated by
the Treaty of Turkmantchai (1828), Russia
receiving the provinces of Erivan and
Nakhitcheven. This was the period of the
expansion of Russia, and the first appearance
of Russia as a real rival of Great Britain.

Reviewing the general policy of Nicholas
the reader cannot help being struck with the
skilful manner and clever system by which
the Czar carried out his plans.

Before his reign the Russian attacks were
all made particularly in the south-west and
south-east direction, viz., the Danubian

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 127

territory, and Armenia ; but on his accession
he began to attack from a more southerly
direction even than Turkey, viz., Greece,
whom he assisted in rebellion against her
Turkish oppressors. From 1826-1828 he
attacked in a south-easterly quarter, viz.,
Armenia and Persia, at the same time
occupying Adrianople and threatening Con-
stantinople. Finally, to complete his plans,
he struck a fatal blow at the heart of Turkey,
viz., its capital, Constantinople, in 1833, with
the Treaty of Unkiar Skelessi, by which
Turkey was practically made a vassal of
Russia.

This treaty exercised a great influence
upon foreign powers. For Russia by it
would have obtained actual possession notonly
of the Black Sea but also of its only entrance,
the Dardanelles, which thus would have
become a fortified Russian outpost.

Turkey now was in a very precarious state.
She was almost past the aid of any earthly
powers. But luckily two doctors stepped
into the breach, namely, England and France,
and, after a course of treatment, the following

128 f AP AN AND THE PACIFIC.

protocol was indited by the Pentarchy of
Powers : " That ships of war have at all
times been prohibited from entering the
Channel of Constantinople, viz., by the
Straits of the Dardanelles and of the Black
Sea."

Reshid Pacha had performed for Turkey
great internal reforms, but, unfortunately, he
was exiled through a Court intrigue. This
proved a great blow to Turkish politics.

Thus Turkey began to decline again ; and,
as John Bright said in an able speech at
Manchester (1854), " Turkey is a decaying
nation ; " and Cobden on the same occasion
said, " Turkey is a decaying country, and the
Turks cannot be permanently maintained as
a ruling Power in Europe." The Czar
himself said that "a sick man is dying,"
referring to Turkey, in his remarkable con-
versation with Sir Hamilton Seymour on
January 28, 1853.

When Turkey appeared at her last gasp
she had been saved by England and France,
Now, for the second time, the same Powers
rescued her from annihilation.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 129

England a short time previously had been
in a feeble state owing to her severe war with
Napoleon the Great. This had exhausted
her financially to a great extent.1

However, Huskisson's commercial policy
(1823), Wellington's Catholic Emancipation
(1829), Russell's great Reform Bill (1832),
and the Repeal of the Corn Laws by Sir
Robert Peel (1846), had exercised a re-
freshing influence upon her general pros-
perity.

Here Lord Palmerston, a disciple2 of

1 " The pressure of the heavy taxation and of the
debts, which now reached eight hundred millions, was
embittered by the general distress of the country "
(J. R. Green's " A Short History of the English People,"
p. 812).

2 " Our ultimate object is the peace of the world ; but
let it not be said that we cultivate peace either because
we fear or because we are not prepared for war. The
resources created by peace are the means of waf. In
cherishing these resources we but accumulate those
means. Our present repose is no more a proof of our
inability to act than the state of inertness and inactivity
in which I have seen those mighty masses that float in
the waters above your town is a proof they are devoid of
strength and incapable of being fitted for action. You
well know how one of those stupendous masses now

130 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Canning, appeared on the scene to play his
part in " the European concert."

reposing on their shadow in perfect stillness, how soon,
upon any call of patriotism or necessity, it would assume
the likeness of an animated thing, instinct with life and
motion ; how soon it would ruffle, as it were, its swelling
plumage ; how quickly it would put forth all its beauty
and its bravery, collect its scattered elements of strength,
and awake its dormant thunders. Such as is one of these
magnificent machines when springing from inaction into
a display of its strength, such is England herself, while
apparently passive and motionless she silently causes
power to be put forth on an adequate occasion "
(Canning's speech at Plymouth, August, 1823).

THE CRIMEAN WAR.

Nicholas I. alienates France from England by the
Egyptian question — Mehemet All and P aimer sforfs
convention against him — Nicholas /. in England —
The Protectorate of the Holy Land; breach between
Russia and France — Proposed partition of Turkey —
War of Russia and Tiirkey — The Vienna Note—
Intervention of France and England to save Turkey
— Treaty of Paris ; Russia foiled — Correspondence
between Palmers ton and Aberdeen as to the declara-
tion of war — National feeling of England secures the
former's triumph — French motives in joining in the

ALTHOUGH Turkey was unable to withstand
Russia alone, yet, with the help of England
and France, she was able to prevent the
Russian inroad, on the south.

Nicholas, ever crafty, now turned his
attention to fostering the minor disputes
which still existed between England and
France.

132 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Being envious of the English naval
supremacy in the Mediterranean, France
resumed her traditional policy of obtaining
influence in Egypt, in order to be able to
have a stronghold there against English
power, and succeeded in making Egypt a
faithful ally.

England, on the other hand, clung to the
alliance with Turkey, and assisted the Sultan
in quelling the 'rebellion of Mehemet AH.

Thus we see there existed a difference
between the two Powers, notwithstanding that
Russia was a common rival of both.

Nicholas used this difference as a tool to
weaken the allies against his own country.

In 1839 Mdhemet Ali, with the silent ap-
proval of Russia, determined to become an
independent monarch.

Thiers, a minister of Louis Phillipe, in
helping Mehemet Ali, the viceroy of Egypt,
had fallen into a Russian trap, although he
'believed and hoped that he was following the
traditional policy of Napoleon the Great.
This proved, however, a mistaken policy ;
for it was the general European feeling that

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 133

if war resulted the Egyptians would be
victorious, Constantinople would be in
danger; the Treaty of Unkiar-Skelessi would
come into force, the Russians would rush to
help the Porte, while the Anglo-French fleets
would be barred from the Dardanelles.

Lord Palmerston saw that the united
action of the five Great Powers might settle
the Eastern Question and destroy the
influence of Russia, which seemed to be too
arbitrarily strong. His idea was that a
Conference should be held by the five Great
Powers, and this was approved of by
all.

There was no doubt that the Conference
was not as unanimous as could be wished, and
certainly England did not agree with France
on several points.

At length Palmerston made a convention
with three of the Powers for an armed
interference in the Eastern Question. France
was left alone. And Palmerston determined
to pursue the above-mentioned policy.

Admiral Stopford captured Beyrout, and
Sir Charles Napier bombarded Acre. The

134 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

fall of the fortress of Acre — which was thought
to be impregnable — before the English fleet,
terminated the war, and Mehemet Ali became
only an hereditary ruler over Egypt under
the over-lord of the Porte.

The breach between England and France
having become serious, Russia having obtained
her desires stationed her fleet at Sebastopol,
where it remained quiescent during the
English bombardment of Acre.

Thus, although Lord Palmerston succeeded
in crushing the French Minister's scheme,
yet he fell into the snare laid for him by
Russia, viz., of bringing about a diplomatic
disagreement between England and France.

But Russia did not gain by the transaction,
for she in her turn lost her single-handed
power over Turkey, which was given into
the hands of the Five Powers.

Lord Palmerston offered the following
condition to the Turkish Government.
" England having, in conjunction with other
Christian Powers, succeeded in restoring
Syria to the Sultan, she is entitled to expect
that the Sultan, in return for such assistance,

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 135

should secure his Christian subjects from
oppression." J

At last the Syrian affairs were settled, but
still England was always dreading a French
attack both on Egypt and Syria.

In 1844 the Emperor Nicholas paid his
famous visit to England. What was his
object in coming to England at such a period?
The only idea that I can put forward is, that
he wanted to see to what extent the Anglo-
French disagreement 2 with regard to Syrian

1 Holland's " European Concert on the Eastern
Question," p. 206.

2 " The growth of intimate relations between England
and that country France . . . was manifestly viewed by
him with jealous distrust, calculated as it was to affect
most seriously any designs which might be entertained
at St. Petersburg for enlarging Russian territory at the
expense of Turkey. To detach England from this
alliance would naturally be regarded by the Czar as a
master-stroke of policy, and the recent conduct of France
in the Eastern Question may have seemed to furnish an
opening for making the attempt. If, however, as
currently believed at the time, one main object of his
visit was to ascertain for himself whether this was possible,
he must soon have been satisfied to the contrary by the
very decided language with which Sir Robert Peel
received his suggestions as to the probably selfish action
of France, in the event of the affairs of Turkey coming

136 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

affairs had reached ; also to widen them as
much as possible in order to make it im-
possible to form an Anglo-French alliance
against him, and thus leave him a free hand
in the settlement of the Eastern Question
when the fall of Turkey should take place.

Nicholas was at once informed, after his
arrival, by the British Prime Minister, ''that
no foreign influence in Egypt would be
allowed by the British Government, who
desired to keep the way open to India." He
at once perceived that the English were
fearful of the French historic Napoleonic
plans ; and he at once used this fear to his
advantage.

He first proposed a partition of Turkey,
knowing that the English Government would
not dare to agree to it, because it would hurt
the national feeling of England. Soon after
the Anti-Napoleonic Revolution was over
the Holy Alliance was concluded between
several European Courts, and the moral
feelings in the western states of Europe were

to a crisis" (Sir T. Martyn's ''Life of the Prince
Consort,1' vol. i. p. 216).

THE EA S TERN Q UES TION. 1 37

to defend the weak against the strong, and
to resist unjust aggression. These feelings
were clearly shown during the Russian
oppression of Poland (1837), and in the
Independence of Greece (1821—1829).

In England these feelings had manifested
themselves, and any English Government
which should venture to shock them would
have been certainly upset. Therefore, a
proposed partition of Turkey by Russia was
received by the English Government with
decided disfavour.

Then the Czar proposed that the guardian-
ship of the Holy Land should be entrusted to
Russia. This was his great aim, and was his
principal object.

England found herself in a dilemma.
What was she to do ? She had already
refused the Czar's first proposal, and she felt
obliged to accept the second. " The three
representatives of the Conservative party,
namely, the Duke of Wellington, Sir Robert
Peel, and Lord Aberdeen, met the Czar and
signed a secret memorandum, promising to
exert their personal influence on behalf of the

138 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Greeks as opposed to the Latin Chinch at
Jerusalem, and so practically to forward
Russian claims to the guardianship of the
Holy Places, as opposed to those of France,
who was to be ignored in the matter. This
memorandum, to a certain extent favouring
Russia's claim to a protectorate of the Greek
Church, was never placed in the Foreign
Office archives, but was forwarded in suc-
cession from one English Foreign Secretary to
another, until, as we shall show, poor Lord
Aberdeen (Wellington and Peel being dead)
was called on for his pound of flesh in

Thus Nicholas attained the end he had in
view, and left England, well pleased with the
brilliant reception he had met with. " The
Greek and the Catholic Church," Lord
Palmerston had written to Canning, 1849,
" are merely other names for Russian and
French influence."

France at once perceived that the Czar's
visit to England was connected with some

1 Thornton's " Foreign Secretaries of the Nine-
teenth Century," vol iii. p. 100.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 139

secret arrangement to the prejudice of French
interests, and felt highly indignant.

France did not lose any time, and
commenced plans to overturn Russian in-
fluence in the Holy Land. Russia resented
this, thinking that France would be her only
enemy. The Holy Land dispute soon became
general.

The Turkish compromise did not please
Russia and France. " Suddenly, the French
ambassador at Constantinople, M. de Lava-
lette, was instructed to demand that the
grants l to the Latin Church should be
strictly executed in the Holy Land." 2

In 1852 Lord Aberdeen was made the
British Prime Minister, and "the Emperor
Nicholas heard the tidings of Lord Aberdeen's
elevation to a premiership with a delight he
did not suppress." 3

Nicholas thought that now an alliance

1 In 1840 France succeeded in obtaining from the
Porte a grant of distinguished privileges in regard to the
Holy Land.

2 Ashley's "Life of Lord Palmerston," vol. i. p. 279.

3 Kinglake's " History of Crimean War," vol. i.
p. 82.

140 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

between England and France was impossible,1
and at the same time, seeing that Prussia
and Austria were neutral, determined to
obtain " the key of the Black Sea." 2

However, he wanted to ascertain whether
England would keep her secret engagement

1 Baron Brunnon, the Russian Minister, said to Count
Vitzthum, " he knew that his Emperor (Nicholas), relying
on Lord Aberdeen's well-known love of peace, and on
the protocol which had been signed by Aberdeen in
1844 under entirely different circumstances, regarded
two things impossible : first, that England should
declare war against Russia ; and secondly, that she
should conclude an alliance against Russia with France ''
(Count Vitzthum's " St. Petersburg and London," vol i.
p. 66).

2 " Men dwelling amidst the snows of Russia are
driven by very nature to grow covetous when they
hear of the happier lands where all the year round there
are roses and long sunny days. And since this people
have a seaboard and ports on the Euxine, they are forced
by an everlasting policy to desire the command of the
straits which lead through the heart of an empire into
the midst of that world of which men kindle thoughts
when they speak of the v^gean and of Greece, and the
Ionian shores, and of Palestine and Egypt, and of Italy,
and of France, and of Spain, and the land of the Moors,
and of the Atlantic beyond, and the path of ships on the
ocean " (Kinglake's " Invasion of the Crimea,'' vol. i.
P- 54).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 141

to come to a separate understanding with
him. He again proposed a partition of
Turkey, on January 28, 1853, at the same time
making use of the curious expression to Sir
Hamilton Seymour that " a sick man is
dying," and that his (the sick man's)
property should be divided according to
agreement between England and Russia.
Nicholas' idea was (a) that Servia, Bosnia,
Bulgaria, and the other principalities of the
Danube, should become independent states
under Russian protection, and (b) that he
would " have no objection to offer," to the
occupation of Egypt and Candia by England
" in the event of a distribution of the
Ottoman Succession upon the fall of the
Empire," (c) that Constantinople should
never be held by the English or French, or
any other great nation, and Greece should
not strengthen herself " so as to become a
powerful state," and (e} that Russia should
occupy Constantinople provisionally, not "as
a proprietor, of course, but as a trustee."

" In answer to these overtures," Kinglake
says, " the Government of the Queen dis-

142 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

claimed all notion of aiming at the possession
of either Constantinople or any other of
the Sultan's possessions, and accepted the
assurances to the like effect which were given
by the Czar. It combated the opinion that
the extinction of the Ottoman Empire was
near at hand, and deprecated the discussions
based on that supposition as tending directly
to produce the very result against which they
were meant to provide." l

Then the Czar sent Prince Menschikoff to
Constantinople, and entrusted to him the two
following missions : viz., (a) to set forth a
Russian claim on the Holy Places, and (b)
that all orthodox Christians, who were
subjects of Turkey, should be placed under
the immediate protectorate of Russia.

The above second mission was planned by
Russia owing to her deep sympathy with the
Sclavonic races, who had adhered to the same
religion although they were still under
Turkish rule. But this bond was rapidly
getting weaker, and the Christian inhabitants

1 Kinglake's "Invasion of the Crimea," vol. i. p. 90.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 143

were determined to throw off, if possible, the
Mahomedan yoke.

But the second demand of Russia, to my
mind, was an unjust claim, because it would
have considerably affected the independence
or dignity of the Sultan.1

The English Ambassador in Turkey, Lord
Stratford de Redcliffe, a great opponent of
Russia, advised the Porte to stand firm and
resist to the utmost the second- demand.2 He
and Lord Clarendon (the English Foreign
Secretary), however, tried to persuade the
Porte to agree to the first demand, but the
Porte, with decided firmness, declined to
accept this advice.

1 The Grand Vizier said the mission was meant "to
win some important right from Turkey, which would
destroy her independence, and that the Czar's object was
to trample under foot the rights of the Porte and the
independence of the Sovereign " (Kinglake's " Invasion
of the Crimea," vol. i. p. 99).

2 " That the Sultan's promise to protect his Christian
subjects in the free exercise of their religion differed
extremely from a right conferred on any foreign Power to
enforce that protection, and also the same degree of
interference might be dangerous to the Porte when
exercised by so powerful an empire as Russia, on behalf
of ten millions of Greeks " (Lord Stratford's view).

144 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

This was followed, on May 21, 1853, by the
departure of Prince Menschikoff from Con-
stantinople, with the threat that " he had come
in his great coat, but would return in his uni-
form." Russia then crossed the Pruth on July
2nd, and occupied the Danubian Principalities
as a preliminary to her demands. On the
same day of the Russian invasion the repre-
sentatives of the Great Powers assembled at
Vienna. This Congress drew up what is
known as the "Vienna Note." Russia ac-
ceded to the terms contained in the Note,
but the Porte refused, and offered certain
amendments. The Powers after a time
accepted them, and forwarded them to Russia,
who, however, rejected them.1 The Con-
ference then dissolved.

In October, 1853, the Porte declared war
on Russia ; and the destruction of the

1 " When the Emperor gave his reasons for rejecting
the modifications we found that he interpreted the Note
in a manner quite different from ourselves, and in a great
degree justified the objections of Turks. We could not
therefore honestly continue to give an interpretation to
the Note, and ask the Turks again to sign it, when we
knew that the interpretation of the Emperor is entirely
different" (Lord Sheridan's letter to Earl Russel, Sept.
22, 1853).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 145

Turkish fleet at Sinope sealed the Russian
acquiescence to the declaration.

England and France allied themselves with
Turkey against Russia, and declared war on
March 28, 1854.

The siege of Sebastopol lasted for nearly
a year, and its fall was followed by the Con-
gress of Paris.1 The plenipotentaries of

1 " I thought the Emperor Alexander had shown con-
siderable moral courage in making peace after the
Crimean War, contrary to the general feeling in Russia,

and Prince D gave me the following curious details

of what occurred on that occasion, which he said had
been related to him by one of the Ministers present : —
The Emperor called a Council of War at St. Petersburg,
which was composed of the following members : Prince
Dolgorouky, Minister of War; the Grand Duke Con-
stantine, Minister of Marine ; M. de Broek, Minister of
Finance ; Count Blondoff. Prince Moronzow, and, I
think, M. Lapouchine, Minister of the Interior. The
Emperor first called on the Minister of War to report on
the state of the army, and he said the resources were
exhausted, that more recruiting was almost impossible,
and that he did not see how the war could be continued.
The Emperor next addressed himself to his brother,
who, together with Count Blondoff, was in favour of con-
tinuing hostilities at all risks. The Emperor asked what
was the state of the navy ? The Grand Duke answered,
' Sire, we have a fleet in the Baltic, and another in the
Black Sea.5 The Emperor acquiesced, but added,

146 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

France, England, Russia, Turkey, Sardinia,
Austria, and at last Prussia, assembled at
Paris (February, 1856), and the " Treaty of
Paris " was signed, by which the following
matters were settled : —

i. The Great Powers " declare the Sub-
lime Porte admitted to participate in the

1 True ; but those fleets have never left our harbours.
Are they fit to oppose the English and French fleets ? '
The Grand Duke was obliged to reply in the negative.
* Then,' said the Emperor, * it appears we have no army
and no fleet ? ' The Grand Duke sighed, looked down,
but made no answer. The Emperor next addressed the.
Minister of Finance, and asked what report he could
give. He said, 'Sire, we have just made one disadvan-
tageous loan, upon conditions imposed upon us at Ham-
burg, and I believe another to be impossible.' The
Emperor then addressed the Council, and said, 'Gentle-
men, it appears from what We have just heard that we
have neither army, navy, nor money ; how, then, is it
possible for me to continue the war ? ' Count Blondoff
then stepped forward and said, with deep emotion,
' Sire, after the report we have just heard, it is clear that
your Majesty is forced to make peace, but at the same
time you must dismiss your incompetent Ministers, who
have not known how to serve either your father or your-
self— dismiss us all.' The consternation of the other
members of the Council at this outburst was great, but
peace was signed forthwith" (Lady Bloomfield's "Court
and Diplomatic Life ").

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 147

advantages of the public law and system
(concert) of Europe. Their Majesties en-
gage, each on his part, to respect the inde-
pendence and the territorial integrity of the
Ottoman Empire ; guarantee in common the
strict observance of that engagement ; and
will, in consequence, consider any act tending
to its violation as a question of general
interest" (Art. VII.).

2. " The Black Sea is neutralized ; its
waters and its ports thrown open to the
mercantile marine of every nation, are form-
ally and in perpetuity interdicted to the flag
of war, either of the Powers possessing its
coasts, or of any other Power" (Art. XL),
and, " The Black Sea being neutralized
according to the terms of Article XL, the
maintenance or establishment upon its coast
of military maritime arsenals becomes alike
unnecessary and purposeless; in consequence,
His Majesty the Emperor of all the Russias,
and His Imperial Majesty the Sultan, engage
not to establish or to maintain upon that
coast any military maritime arsenal " (Art.
XIII.)-

148 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

The docks and fortifications at Sebastopol
were destroyed by the Western Powers ; but
it was allowed that Russia and the Porte
should keep up " the number of light vessels
necessary for the service of the coast" (Art.
XIV.), and merchant ships of all kinds were
allowed freely to enter it.

3. All control over the mouth of the
Danube was taken from Russia and entrusted
to the authority of the Riverain Commission
(Art. XVII.). " A Commission shall be
established, and shall be composed of dele-
gates of Austria, Bavaria, the Sublime Porte,
and Wurtemburg (one for each of those
Powers), to whom shall be added commis-
sioners from the three Danubian Principali-
ties, whose nomination shall have been
approved by the Porte. This Commission,
which shall be permanent: (i) Shall prepare
regulations of navigation and river police ;
(2) Shall remove the impediments, of what-
ever nature they may be, which still prevent
the application to the Danube of the arrange-
ments of the Treaty of Vienna ; (3) Shall
order and cause to be executed the necessary

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 149

works throughout the whole course of the
river ; (4) Shall, after the dissolution of the
European Commission, see to maintaining
the mouths of the Danube and the neigh-
bouring parts of the sea in a navigable state "
(Art. XVII.).

4. A portion of Bessarabia on the left bank
of the Danube was ceded by Russia in order
to make the Turkish defence against Russia
more easy, and more fully to secure the
freedom of the navigation of the Danube
(Art. XX.).

There is no doubt Russia was beaten by
the combined alliance against her. She had
entirely overreached herself and miscalcu-
lated the temper of the other Powers. She
had thought that an Anglo-French alliance
was impossible, and that Prussia and Austria
would have remained neutral. Prussia indeed
did maintain a neutrality at the commence-
ment of the war, and the King of Prussia
himself said, " I am resolved to maintain a
position of complete neutrality, and to this
I add with proud elevation that my people

ISO JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

and myself are of one mind. They require
absolute neutrality from me."

Austria, however, only maintained a con-
ditional neutrality. The Austrian Emperor,
in replying to the Russian Ambassador, Count
Orloff, said, " Then must Austria be equally
free to act as her interest and dignity may
direct," if Russia was to cross the Danube,
or seek to occupy fresh territory, or not
evacuate the Principalities when the war was
over.

Later on both Prussia and Austria formed
a defensive alliance against Russia, and with
the consent of the Porte, the Principalities
were provisionally occupied by Austria.

In England Lord Aberdeen did his utmost
to bring about a peace between Russia and
Turkey, but it was a hopeless task. Lord
Palmerston, on the other hand, described
the aggressive policy of Russia as follows :—

" The policy and practice of the Russian
Government has always been to push forward
its encroachments as fast and as far as the
apathy or want of firmness of other Govern-
ments would allow it to go, but always to

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 151

stop and retire when it was met with decided
resistance, and then to wait for the next
favourable opportunity to make another
spring on its intended victim. In further-
ance of this policy, the Russian Government
has always had two strings to its bow —
moderate language and disinterested pro-
fessions at Petersburg and at London ; active
aggression by its agents on the scene of
operations. If the aggressions succeed
locally, the St. Petersburg Government adopts
them as a fait accompli which it did not
intend, but cannot, in honour, recede from.
If the local agents fail, they are disavowed
and recalled, and the language previously
held is appealed to as a proof that the agents
have overstepped their instructions. This
was exemplified in the treaty of Unkiar-
Skelessi, and in the exploits of Simonivitch
and Vikovitch in Persia." J And Lord Palmer-
ston wrote as follows to Lord Aberdeen
(July 4, 1853), when the combined fleets of
England and France were at Besika Bay : —
" In the meantime, however, I hope you will
1 A letter to Lord Clarendon, May 22, 1853.

f52 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

allow the squadrons to be ordered to go up
to the Bosphorus as soon as it is known
at Constantinople that the Russians have
entered the Principalities, and to be further
at liberty to go into the Black Sea, if
necessary or useful for the protection of
Turkish territory. The advantages of such
a course seem to be—

" First. That it would encourage and assist
the Turks in those defensive arrangements
and organizations which the present crisis
may give the Turkish Government facilities
for making, and the benefit of which, in
strengthening Turkey against attack, will
continue after the crisis is over.

" Secondly. It would essentially tend to pre-
vent any further inroad on Turkish territory
in Europe or in Asia, and it is manifest that
any such further inroad would much increase
the difficulties of a settlement.

"Thirdly. It would act as a wholesome
check upon the Emperor and his advisers,
and would stimulate Austria and Prussia to
increased exertions to bring the Russian
Government to reason.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 155

" Fourthly. It would relieve England and
France from the disagreeable, and not very
creditable, position of waiting without ven-
turing to enter the back door as friends, while
the Russians have taken forcible possession
of the front hall as enemies.

" If these orders are to be given, I would
suggest that it is very important that they
should be given without delay, so that we
may be able, when these matters are discussed
this week in Parliament, to say that such
orders have been sent off. Of course they
would at the same time be communicated to
the Russian Government."

But the Premier did not agree with
Palmerston's views.

The combined fleets, at the request of the
Sultan, passed up to Constantinople (October
7, 1853). Palmerston then made two propo-
sitions to the Cabinet : —

" First. That instructions should be sent
to Constantinople that, in the event of war
having been declared, the two squadrons
should enter the Black Sea, and should send
word to the Russian admiral at Sebastopol

154 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

that, in the existing state of things, any
Russian ship of war found cruising in the
Black Sea would be detained, and be given
over to the Turkish Government.

"' Secondly. That England and France
should propose to the Sultan to conclude a
convention to the effect that, whereas war has
unfortunately broken out between Russia and
Turkey, in consequence of differences created
by unjust demands made upon Turkey by
Russia, and by unwarrantable invasion of the
Turkish territory by a Russian army ; and
whereas it is deemed by England and France
to be an object of general European interest,
and of special importance to them that the
political independence and the territorial
integrity of the Ottoman Empire should be
maintained inviolate against Russian aggres-
sion, the two Powers engage to furnish to the
Sultan such naval assistance as may be
necessary in existing circumstances for the
defence of his empire ; and they moreover
engage to permit any of their respective
subjects who may be willing to do so, to enter
the military or naval service of the Sultan.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 155

In return, the Sultan is to engage that he will
consult with England and France as to the
terms and conditions of the new treaty which
is to determine, on the conclusion of hos-
tilities, the future relations of Russia and
Turkey."

But Lord Aberdeen in reply said :—

" I cannot say that I think the present
state of the Russo-Turkish question would
authorize such a proceeding on our part as
that which you intend to propose."

On November i, 1853, Palmerston again
said in concluding another letter to Lord
Aberdeen : —

" It seems to me, then, that our course is
plain, simple, and straight. That we must
help Turkey out of her difficulties by
negotiation, if possible ; and that if negotia-
tion fails, we must, by force of arms, carry
her safely through her dangers."

After the destruction of the Turkish fleet
at Sinope, Palmerston wrote to Aberdeen as
follows : —

" Will you allow me this opportunity of
repeating in writing what I have more than

156 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

once said verbally, on the state of things
between Russia and Turkey? It appears to
me that we have two objects in view : the
one to put an end to the present war between
these two Powers ; the other to prevent, as
far as diplomatic arrangements can do so, a
recurrence of similar differences, and renewed
clangers to the peace of Europe.

" Now it seems to me that, unless Turkey
shall be laid prostrate at the feet of Russia
by the disasters of the war — an event which
England and France could not without
dishonour permit — no peace can be con-
cluded between the contending parties unless
the Emperor consents to evacuate the Princi-
palities, to abandon his demands, and to
renounce some of the embarrassing stipula-
tions of former, treaties upon which he has
founded the pretensions which have been the
cause of existing difficulties.

" To bring the Emperor to agree to this,
it is necessary to exert a considerable
pressure upon him ; and the quarter in which
that pressure can at present be most easily
brought to bear is the Black Sea and the

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 157

countries bordering upon it. In the Black
Sea, the combined English, French, and
Turkish squadrons are indisputably superior
to the Russian fleet, and are able to give the
law to that fleet. What I would strongly
recommend, therefore, is that which I pro-
posed some months ago to the Cabinet,
namely, that the Russian Government and
the Russian admiral at Sebastopol should be
informed that so long as Russian troops
occupy the Principalities, or hold a position
in any other part of the Turkish territory, no
Russian ships of war can be allowed to show
themselves out of port in the Black Sea.

<( You will say that this would be an active
hostility towards Russia ; but so is the decla-
ration already made, that no Russian ships
shall be permitted to make any landing or
attack on any part of the Turkish territory.
The only difference between the two declara-
tions is that the one already made is incom-
plete and insufficient for its purpose, and that
the one which I propose would be complete
and sufficient. . If the Russian fleet were
shut up in Sebastopol, it is probable that the

158 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Turks would be able to make in Asia an
impression that would tend to facilitate the
conclusion of peace.

" With regard to the conditions of peace,
it seems to me that the only arrangement
which could afford to Europe a fair security
against future dangers arising out of the
encroachments of Russia on Turkey, and the
attempts of the Russian Government to
interfere in the internal affairs of the Turkish
Empire, would be that arrangement which I
have often suggested, namely, that the treaty
to be concluded between Russia and Turkey
should be an ordinary treaty of peace and
friendship, of boundaries, commerce, and
mutual protection of the subjects of the one
party within the territories of the other ; and
that all the stipulations which might be
required for the privileges of the Princi-
palities and of Servia, and for the protection
of the Christian religion and its churches and
the Ottoman dominions by the Sultan and
the five Powers. By such a treaty, Russia
would be prevented from dealing single-
handed with Turkey in regard to those

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 159

matters on which she has, from time to time,
endeavoured 'to fasten a quarrel on the
Sultan."

Lord Aberdeen's reply was : —

" I confess I am not prepared to adopt the
mode which you think most likely to restore
peace."

Lord Palmerston tendered his resignation
on receiving this reply, but withdrew it ten
days after when the Cabinet adopted his
views.

On June 16, 1854, Lord Palmerston
wrote to the Duke of Newcastle, then
Minister of War — " Our only chance of
bringing Russia to terms is by offensive and
not by defensive operations. We and the
French ought to go to the Crimea and take
Sebastopol. If this blow were accompanied
by successful operations in Georgia and Cir-
cassia, we might have a Merry Christmas and
a Happy New Year."

Thus we see that the English policy during
the Crimean crisis changed from peace
tactics to defensive operations, and was sub-
sequently turned into an offensive line of

160 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

action which terminated in a brilliant triumph
for England.

But how was Lord Palmerston able to
carry out his war policy so vigorously ? The
answer is a very simple one. He was backed
and urged on by the nation at large, who
were incensed at the insolence of Russia.
Thus he was able to pursue his plans, being
encouraged and supported by a people who
were well able to carry out what they resolved
upon.

Kinglake said he (Lord Palmerston) " was
gifted with the instinct which enables a man
to read the heart of a nation."

His judgment was rightly pronounced, for
Palmerston saw the feelings of his national
constituents and steered his course well and
skilfully, i

1 The strength of Lord Palmerston's character and his
determination in matters of ready action is well illus-
trated through an incident recorded by Baron Bunsen
(" Memoirs of Bunsen"): " Bunsen andJPalmerstbn had
elected to be rowed over to Portsmouth from Osborne,
when guests of Her Majesty Queen Victoria, and, the
weather being rough, the Foreign Minister took the helm,
demonstrating the connection between steering the vessel
of State, as Bunsen phrased it, and steering a boat at

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 161

What, then, was the national feeling of
England at that time ?

"In the present instance," said the Prince
Consort, " their (the English) feeling is some-
thing of this sort : The Emperor of Russia is
a tyrant, the enemy of all liberty on the
Continent, and the oppressor of Poland."
From these royal remarks, 1 do not think
I shall be far wrong in saying that the grow-
ing tendency of the English people towards
liberalism since the Reform Bill of 1832, and
the teaching of William Wilberforce, had led
them to consider Russia not only as a national
enemy but as a general opponent of the rights
of humanity and civilization. No wonder
that a war became a necessity after this
public manifestation.

At the end of the last chapter I stated that
England had rapidly increased in wealth and
prosperity since the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
Gladstone, in the House of Commons, stated

sea — 'Oh, one learns boating at Cambridge, even though one
may have learnt nothing better] remarked Lord Palmer-
stem; and guide the craft safely to shore he certainly
did. But when they landed, alas 1 the train was gone."

i62 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

that such was the vigour and elasticity of the
English trade, that even after the disadvantage
of a bad harvest, and under the pressure of
war, the imports from day to day, and almost
from hour to hour, were increasing, and that
the very last papers laid on the table showed
within the last three months of the year that
there was an increase of ,£250,000 in the
national exports.1 This, then, was one of the
reasons which enabled England to carry on
this war so successfully.

Let us turn our attention for a short time
to France, which at this period was under-
going considerable internal agitation. Re-
publicanism was now abolished and Mon-
archy reigned in its stead in the hands of
Napoleon III. (1852). There seemed every
prospect of the French Monarchy being firmly
re-established.

The French Emperor was very desirous of
starting a European War for the purpose of
securing his seat on the throne, and also for the
aggrandizement of his country abroad.2 The

1 Gladstone's speech, May 8, 1854.

2 " Napoleon's object was clear : in the first place, to

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 163

interests of his country, both religious and
political, were opposed to those of Russia
with regard to the Holy Places, while both
England and France had a common interest
in keeping the Ottoman Empire from Russia.
This latter interest acted as a means of union
between the two Powers, both of whom were
ready at any moment to attack Russia, and
the publication of the Czar's memorable
conversation with Sir H. Seymour still
further cemented that union.

The result we have already seen. Russia
was humiliated.

wrest from the Emperor Nicholas the moral hegemony
which he wielded on the Continent, and then, after
conquering Russia, to get his hands free to tear up
the treaties of 1815, restore to France her so-called
natural frontiers, and reconstruct the map of Europe in
accordance with Napoleonic ideas " (Count Vitzthum's
" St. Petersburg and London," vol. i. p. 73).

CHAPTER VI.

THE BLACK SEA CONFERENCE.

French influence destroyed by the Franco-Prussian War —
Russia annuls the Black Sea clauses of the Treaty of
Paris — Condition of Europe preuents their enforcement
by the Pou>ers — London Conference y Russia secures
the Black Sea ; England's mistake — Alsace and Lor-
raine destroy the balance of power.

RUSSIA had convinced herself that the separa-
tion of England from France was not a
sufficient guarantee to hinder the possibility
of the alliance of the two Powers against her,
because a common interest would unite them
immediately. Russia now determined to
crush down one of the two Powers, indepen-
dently of the other, and was only waiting for
an opportunity to do so.

In 1870 the Franco-Prussian War broke
out through the question of the Spanish
Succession. England maintained a strict

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 165

neutrality, and this now seemed a glorious
opportunity for Russia to carry out her long-
cherished designs. She supported Prussia
morally, in this way hoping to crush France,
and then only England would be left to
attack. The result proved favourable ;
France was defeated by Prussia, and this
was followed by the fall of the Monarchy,
and the proclamation of the Republic (Sep-
tember 14, 1870).

Russia now looked around, and at a
glance saw the favourable position she
occupied, and her strength. Austria had
been weakened by the war with Prussia in
1866, Spain and Italy were convulsed with
revolutions, Turkey was naturally weak ;
Prussia had suffered somewhat in 1866 with
Austria, and with France in 1870. France
herself had undoubtedly received a crushing
blow, while England was worried over the
Alabama claims with America.

Thus we see the balance of power was
considerably shaken by the Franco-Prussian
War, while an alliance among the Western
states seemed impossible.

1 66 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

In 1870 Western Europe was startled by
Prince Gortchakoff's declaration that the
Black Sea clauses of the Treaty of Paris,
1856, were null and void. " He declared it
would no longer be submitted to by his
Imperial master." :

England naturally felt very indignant, but
was practically helpless, as she was unable to
get any ally from among the Western Powers,
and she felt unable to cope singly with
Russia. The Government were perplexed,
and the Premier, Mr. W. E. Gladstone, sent
Lord Odo Russell to the German Chancellor
to ask his advice on the subject, and to inform
him that " the question was of such a nature
that England, with or without allies, would
have to go to war with Russia."

Prince Bismarck, who was afraid of a Franco-
Russian alliance, and wished to conciliate
the Russian Emperor, recommended that a
conference should be held in St. Peters-
burg. The English Government objected
to this, so a Conference was held in London

1 Earl Russell's " Recollections and Suggestions,
1813-1873," p. 476.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 167

where the following provisions were agreed
to :—

" Article I. Articles XL, XIII., and XIV.,
of the Treaty of Paris, 1856, are abrogated.

"Article II. The principle of the closing
of the Straits of the Dardanelles and the
Bosphorus is maintained, with power to his
Imperial Majesty the Sultan to open the
said Straits in time of peace to the vessels of
war of friendly and allied Powers, in case the
Sublime Porte should judge it necessary in
order to secure the execution of the stipula-
tions of the Treaty of Paris.

"Article III. The Black Sea remains, as
heretofore, open to the mercantile marine of
all nations."

Article IV. The Commission managing
the navigation of the Danube " is maintained
in its present composition " for a further
period of twelve years.

"Article VIII. The high contracting
parties renew and confirm all the stipulations
of 1856, which are not annulled or modified
by the present treaty."

This treaty resulted in what Russia wished,

168 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

viz., the opening of the Black Sea to Russian
war ships — a right which she had held previous
to the Crimean War.

Mr. Disraeli (afterwards Lord Beaconsfield)
vigorously attacked the Gladstonian policy
by saying that " the neutral character of
the Black Sea is the essence of the Treaty
of Paris, and that that, in fact, was the question
for which we had struggled and made great
sacrifice and endured these sufferings which
never can be forgotten," and the " point upon
which the negotiations for peace (at Vienna,
1855) was broken off was the neutral character
of the Black Sea." '

1 " No sooner had Napoleon learned that an English
Cabinet Minister was to go to Vienna than he sent thither
also his own Minister of Foreign Affairs, M. Drouyn de
Lhuys, while Prince Gortschakoff, who had already been
designated as Nesselrode's successor, represented Russia
at the Conference. The first two points — the cessation of
the Russian protectorate over Moldavia and Wallachia,
and the regulation of the navigation of the Danube in
conformity with the resolutions of the Congress of Vienna
— presented little difficulty. On the other hand, a lively
word combat, and a not less lively interchange of des-
patches, arose over the third point, which demanded
the revision of the Dardanelles Treaty of July 13, 1841}
and the abrogation of Russian supremacy in the Black

THE EASTERN QUESTION. i6g

In answer to this attack Mr. Gladstone
replied, " I do not speak from direct com-
munication with Lord Clarendon, but I have
been told since his death that he never
attached a value to that neutralization.

Sea. The words, ' mettre fin a la preponderance russe
dans la Mer Noire,' were of a very elastic nature, and
capable of various interpretations. The Western Powers,
mindful of Europe, demanded the neutralization of the
Black Sea and a limitation of the number of Russian and
Turkish war ships. Gortschakoff declared that Sebastopol
was not yet taken, and probably never would be taken,
and that Russia must reject any attempt to limit her
naval forces as a humiliation unworthy of a Great Power.
Austria then proposed a compromise that Russia should
pledge herself to maintain the s/atus quo of 1853 ; and
that each of the Western Powers should be entitled to
station two frigates in the Black Sea, in order to see that
Russia did not increase her fleet. At the same time
Austria promised to consider it as a casus belli if Russia
kept there a single ship of war more than in 1853.
M. Drouyn de Lhuys, who, in the interest of exhausted
France, was anxious to bring the war to an end, accepted
this proposed compromise, and induced Lord John
Russell to do likewise. Both were disavowed. Drouyn
de Lhuys sent in his resignation, and was succeeded at
the Ministry on the Quai d'Orsay by Walewski ; but Lord
John Russell, scorned alike by his friends and foes,
returned to London, and, in spite of all, remained
Minister for the present " (Count Vitzthum's, "St. Peters-
burg and London."

i;o JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Again I do not speak from direct communi-
cation, but I have been told that Lord
Palmerston always looked upon the neutra-
lization as an arrangement which might be
maintained and held together for a limited
number of years, but which, from its cha-
racter, it was impossible to maintain as a per-
manent condition for a great settlement of
Europe."

However, Russia had regained what she
had lost at the close of the Crimean War by
skilful diplomacy. She now was perfectly at
liberty to keep her fleet in the Black Sea, and
to refortify Sebastopol and Keotch to such
an extent as to render them impregnable.

She felt gratified at the result of the
Franco- Prussian War, and on hearing that
Prussia had annexed Alsace and Lorraine,
General Ignatieff, the Russian Ambassador
at Constantinople, hastened to the German
Ambassador, Count Karserling, and said,
" Permit me to congratulate you, and thank
you ; for you it is a prodigious mistake, but
on Russia you have conferred the greatest
possible boon." At the time of the annexa-

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 171

tion of the two French provinces, Germany
thought that they would prove of the greatest
value to the German Empire, but this idea
proved a mistake, and since then Russia has
used, and still uses them, as a pivot on which
the Eastern Question turns.

Frederick III.'s idea of selling back Alsace
and Lorraine would no doubt prove a great
benefit, not only to the German nation, but
also to the maintenance of the balance of
power in Europe.

Yet, though Bismarck defeated Napoleon
III. in a sanguinary war, Prince Gortschakoff
had beaten all the signitary powers at the
Treaty of Paris by one stroke of the pen, and
the greatest gainer in the Franco-Prussian
War was not Germany but Russia. Verily,
indeed, is it once more proved that the Pen
is mightier than the Sword.

VII.

THE RUSSO-TURKISH WAR OF 1878.

Bulgarian atrocities — The An dr assy Note; England de-
stroys its effect — The Berlin Memorandum; England
opposes it — Rtissia prepares for a Turkish war — Con-
ference of Constantinople — New Turkish Constitution
— Russo- Turkish War — Treaty of San Stefano —
Intervention of the Powers — The Berlin Congress —
Final treaty of peace.

THE Slavs migrated to the Balkan Peninsula
as early as 450 A.D., and Bosnia remained the
only Slavonic part of the Turkish Empire
where a native nobility owned the land and a
peasantry tilled it for them.

Having been defeated by the Turks, the
nobility became Mahommedans to save their
patrimony, while the peasantry, having
nothing to lose, remained Christians ; but the
tyrrany of their nobility at length obliged the
Turks to put an end to the Feudal System in
Bosnia (1850-1851).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 173

In August, 1875, Herzegovina (the south-
western district of Bosnia) revolted against
the Sultan, being aided by a strong natural
position and receiving the assistance of both
Servia and Montenegro.

While this revolt was going on the
Bulgarians also rose in rebellion against the
Sultan (1876), but were put down by the
Turkish Government, although not without
shameful cruelties and outrages being com-
mitted by the Turkish troops and militia,
which caused great indignation throughout
Europe,1 and specially so in Russia. This,
therefore, gave the latter country a good
opportunity of claiming to be a general pro-
tector of the Christians in Turkey.

The Austro- Hungarian Minister, Count
Andrassy, on behalf of Austria, Germany, and
Russia, drew up a Note in which five2 chief

1 In 1876 (September) Mr. Gladstone published his
pamphlet entitled " Bulgarian Horrors and the Question
of the East." It passed through almost countless editions
and created a great sensation.

2 " First, religious liberty, in the sense of religious
equality, full and entire; second, the abolition of tax-
farming ; third, the exclusive application to Bosnia and

174 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

concessions were insisted upon from the Porte
as necessary for the pacification of the re-
volted provinces.

Lord Derby, on behalf of the English
Government, signed : it, but added that the

Herzegovina of their own direct taxation ; fourth, the ap-
pointment of an executory Commission to carry these
reforms into effect, to be composed equally of Mahom-
medans and Christians; fifth, the amelioration of the
condition of the rural population by some more satisfac-
tory arrangement between the Christian Rajahs and the
Mahommedan Agas, or landowners " (The Duke of
Argyll's " The Eastern Question," vol. i. p. 161).

1 " Sir H. Elliot was directed to give a * general sup-
port ' to the Andrassy Note. It will be seen that in the
mode of giving this ' general support ' to the action of the
European Powers, Her Majesty's Government here con-
trived to reduce the value of it to the lowest possible
amount, and expressly to negative the significance of it.
. . . But. more than this — it is distinctly implied that any
such meaning, if it were entertained, would be a violation
of the Ninth Article of the Treaty of Paris. The Turks
were thus encouraged to claim under that treaty a
licence and immunity which it never was intended to
afford. It is evident, therefore, that the British Cabinet
only joined the other Powers, first, because it was impos-
sible to deny the justice of the demand made on Turkey;
secondly, because it would be inconvenient to stand
alone against the united opinion of all the other Cabinets
of Europe ; thirdly, because Turkey herself saw some
advantage in accepting the communication " (Ibid. vol. i.
p. 166).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 175

integrity l of the Ottoman Empire was to be
respected. Here the Czar caught a key-note
of the English policy, and he played on it
afterwards to his own advantage.

The Porte accepted the conditions of the
Note, but the rebels did not trust the Turkish
promises, so the insurrections continued.

The Czar then, with Gortschakoff, met
Bismarck and Andrassy at Berlin, and,
together, they drew up the " Berlin Memo-
randum," 2 in which the three Powers asked

1 Lord Derby said that " the Note now proposed was
sure to lead to farther diplomatic interference in the in-
ternal affairs of Turkey."

2 " First, the provision of means sufficient to settle the
refugees in their homes ; second, the distribution of these
means by a mixed Commission, with a Herzegovinian
Christian as President ; third, the concentration of
Turkish troops into certain places ; fourth, the retention
of arms by the Christians ; fifth, the Consuls or Delegates
of the Powers to have a watch over the application
of the promised reforms and repatriation of the people.
The Memorandum farther proceeded thus in its closing
paragraph : If, however, the armistice were to expire
without the effort of the Powers being successful in
attaining the ends they have in view, the three
Imperial Courts are of opinion that it would become
necessary to supplement their diplomatic action by
the sanction of an agreement, with a view to such

176 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

the Sultan to grant an armistice for two
months in order that the demands of the
insurgents might receive a fair consideration.
Italy and France added their voices, but
England refused l to sign the Memorandum
and sent a powerful squadron to Besika Bay,
expecting that the Sultan would refuse the
Memorandum because it would endanger the
integrity of the Ottoman Empire. This

efficacious measures as might appear to be demanded in
the interest of general peace, to check the evil and pre-
vent its development " (The Duke of Argyll's " The
Eastern Question," vol. i. p. 193).

1 " The objections of detail taken by the English
Cabinet to the Berlin Memorandum were at once met by
Prince Bismarck by the declaration that these points
were entirely ' open to discussion, that they might be
modified according to circumstances, and that he, for
one, would willingly entertain any improvement which
Her Majesty's Government might have to propose.' . . .
France implored Her Majesty's Government to reconsider
its decision, and declared that persistence in it would, at
such a momentous crisis, be nothing short of a ' public
calamity.' She ' could not conceal the apprehensions for
the future to which this refusal have given rise.' Italy
did the same. The position was, that England objected
to everything proposed by others, and had nothing to
propose herself. Continued trust in the Turks was her
only suggestion " (The Duke of Argyll's "The Eastern
Question," vol. i. pp. 202, 203).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 177

" Berlin Memorandum " displays the skilful
way in which Russia, under the clever
guidance of the Czar and his Minister Gort-
schakoff, carried on negotiation. She was
only seeking a preten.ce l for a single-handed
war policy with Turkey, and in order to do
this she proposed measures at Berlin which she
knew would prove objectionable to England.
Germany, who dreaded a special alliance
between France and Russia, was obliged to
agree to these measures, thus becoming a
tool of Russia, who wanted to make England
first deviate from the Treaties of Paris and
London, and, if possible, to break down the
balance of power in Europe which she herself
had already done by her withdrawal from the
Black Sea clauses in the Treaty of Paris.

1 "At the first meeting of the Congress (June 13,
1878) Lord Beaconsfield made his concerted objec-
tion to the advanced position of the Russian troops
at the gates of Constantinople. Count Schouvaloff re-
plied that this advanced position had been taken up
by the Russian army in consequence of the entry of the
English fleet into the Bosphorus. Prince Bismarck, the
President of the Congress, expressed himself satisfied
with the Russian reply" (The Duke of Argyll's "Th-
Eastern Question," vol. ii. p. 144).

178 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

England fell into the snare together with the
other Powers. She objected to the Berlin
Memorandum, refused to sign, and sent a
fleet to Besika Bay in support of her
objection. This was just what Russia
desired.

A new Sultan now ascended the throne,
and Russian influence declined while that of
England increased.

In July, 1876, Prince Milan of Servia, and
Prince Mikita of Montenegro, declared war
against Turkey, having open assistance from
Russia. The rebels, however, were sub-
jugated by the Turks.

In November, 1876, Alexander II. of
Russia, made a public declaration that " if
Turkey did not give due guarantees for the
better government of her Christian subjects
he would force them to do so, either in
concert with his allies or by independent
action."

The European Powers, in consequence of
this proclamation, proposed a Conference at
Constantinople to settle the matter. The
Czar, seeing that the Conference was inevit-

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 179

able, agreed to it. The representatives met,
and, as was to be expected, asked nearly the
same conditions as had been contained in the
" Andrassy Note."

The promulgation of a new Constitution for
the Ottoman Empire was the result of the
Conference, much to the disappointment of
Russia, who did not expect that any such result
would be arrived at. Thus, in order to stop
any further reforms or concessions being
made by Turkey, she succeeded in removing
from power the author of the new Constitu-
tion, viz., Midhat Pasha, who was an impor-
tant personage in Turkish politics.

The following little story shows the skilful
way in which the Turkish Minister was
removed from power by the agency of
Russia : —

" During the Conference, the day after the
Turks had proclaimed their new Constitu-
tion, General Ignatieff met Sir W. White.

" ' Have you read the Constitution ?' asked
Ignatieff. ' No,' said the Englishman ;
* what does it matter? It Nis not serious.'
4 But/ said Ignatieff, 'you must really read

I So JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

one Article;' and so saying he pointed out the
Article which set forth that all provisions to
the contrary notwithstanding the Sultan was
to retain an absolute right to banish from the
capital any person whose presence might
seem objectionable to him. ' Mark my
words,' said Ignatieff, ' the first man to be
exiled under that clause will be Midhat
Pasha, the author of the Constitution.'

" The prediction was fulfilled to the letter.
Meeting Ignatieff some time after, Sir W.
White recalled the prophecy and its fulfil-
ment. ' Oh ! yes,' said the general, care-
lessly ; ' I arranged that.' ' But you had left
Constantinople before Midhat 's exile/ ' Cer-
tainly, but I arranged it just before I left.'
' How ? ' 'It was very simple ; the weather
was stormy in the Black Sea, and I could not
leave for some days after the departure of
my colleague. I went on board my steamer
and anchored exactly opposite the Sultan's
palace. I did not go and bid him farewell,
but waited. In a day or two, as I anticipated,
there came an aide-de-camp from the Sultan
to express his regret and surprise that I,

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 181

whom he had known better than any of the
Ambassadors, should be departing without
paying him a farewell visit. I replied that,
of course, I should have been delighted to
have paid my respects to His Majesty, but
that it was no longer necessary. I had paid
my farewell visit to Midhat Pasha, as, under
the Constitution, it was to him, not the
Sultan, that such an act of respect was due.
Almost immediately after arriving in Russia
I heard of the exile of Midhat. My parting
shot had secured his downfall.' " l

The Conference failed, and Russia declared
war against Turkey, for now she had obtained
what she had been striving for during the
diplomatic transactions, viz., a pretence for a
single-handed policy with regard to Turkey,
and, secondly, she had obtained sufficient
time for making all necessary war prepara-
tions. Now, although she had already got
back what she had lost in the Crimean War
(through the Franco-Prussian War), yet she
was determined to obtain what she had

1 "Truth about Russia," p. 282.

iS2 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

intended to take at the Crimean War, viz.,
Constantinople.

A large Russian army crossed the Pruth
(April, 1877), and encamped before Constan-
tinople. In Asia Kars was captured. This
led to the Treaty of San Stefano.

By this treaty the Ottoman Empire in
Europe was completely abrogated. It re-
cognized the independence of Servia, Monte-
negro, and Roumania; Bulgaria was created,
and its boundaries now extended to the Black
and Aegean Seas, embracing several valu-
able harbours. Although the latter country
still remained tributary to Turkey, yet Russia
had the appointment of a Christian prince in
her hands. It has now to have a separate
administration, to be supervised by Russian
commissioners, and was also to be garrisoned
by Russian troops.

In Bosnia, Crete, Thessaly, and Epirus a
certain amount of reform was to be intro-
duced by the Porte under the supervision
of Russia. It was also enacted that the
part of Bessarabia taken from Russia in
1856 should be ceded back to her, to which

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 183

Lord Palmerston attached great value, " be-
cause," he said, " it is not of local, but of
European interest." Kars, Batoum, and
other adjoining districts in Asia were added
to Russia, by which cession she undoubtedly
held the strongholds of Armenia. Turkey
had to pay Russia three hundred million
roubles.

The results of this treaty may be described
as follows : It was nothing less than (i)
"To take all the European dominions of the
Ottoman Empire from the Porte and put
them under the administration of Russia ; "
(2) " to make the Black Sea as much a
Russian lake as the Caspian ; " (3) to give
Russia a firm hold of the Mediterranean, and
thereby imperil the naval supremacy of Eng-
land in that quarter.

Naturally, England could not accept the
Treaty of San Stefano without some altera-
tions. Lord Derby resigned on the refusal
of his demand that the treaty should be laid
before Parliament, and Lord Salisbury sent
out a vigorous circular which showed the
injustice towards other races of a large

1 84 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Bulgaria establishing Slav supremacy in the
Balkan Peninsula under Russian influence;
also the loss of the ports of Bourgas and
Batoum by the Turks would give Russia
command of the Black Sea trade, while
the cession of Kars to her would also in-
fluence Turkey's Asiatic possessions. This
would also affect the English interests in
the Persian Gulf, the Levant, and the Suez
Canal, which were in the Ottoman keeping,
and therefore was a matter of extreme soli-
citude for England. She would be willing,
however, to join in general stipulations made
by the joint Powers, but would not submit to
Prince GortschakofTs commands. Again, an
unpaid pecuniary debt owing to Russia by
Turkey would give the former dangerous
power.

The following words occur in the first
despatch of the English Government to
Russia : —

"The course on which the Russian Govern-
ment has entered involves graver and more
serious consideration. It is in contravention
of the stipulation of the Treaty of Paris

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 185

(March 30, 1856), by which Russia and
the other signatory Powers engaged, each
on its own part, to respect the independence
and the territorial integrity of the Otto-
man Empire. At the close of the Con-
ference of London of 1871, the above
plenipotentiary, in common with those of
the other Powers, signed a declaration
affirming it to be an essential principle of
the law of nations that no Power can liberate
itself from the engagement of a treaty, nor
modify the stipulations thereof, unless with
the consent of the contracting parties by
means of an amicable arrangement. In
taking action against Turkey on his own
part, and having recourse to arms without
further consultation with his allies, the
Emperor of Russia has separated himself
from the European concert hitherto main-
tained, and has at the same time departed
from the rule to which he himself had
solemnly recorded his consent." l

The English Government addressed a
second despatch to Russia, stating that the
1 Lord Beaconsfield's speech, April 8, 1878.

i86 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

English Government is " of opinion that
any treaty concluded by the Governments
of Russia and the Porte affecting the treaties
of 1856 and 1871 must be a European treaty,
and would not be valid without the assent
of the Powers who were parties to those
treaties."

The Russian Minister's (Gortschakoff's)
reply was received at last : " We repeat
the assurance that we do not intend to
settle by ourselves European questions
having reference to the peace which is to
be made."

Then the English Government sent an-
other despatch to Russia and the other
foreign Courts, and it was communicated
through an English Ambassador at St.
Petersburg that the Russian Emperor
" stated categorically that questions bear-
ing on European interests will be concerted
with European Powers, and he had given
Her Majesty's Government clear and positive
assurance to this effect."

At length Austria, with the full apprecia-
tion of Russia, invited England to a Confe-

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 187

rence at Berlin for the object of establishing
"an European agreement as to the modifi-
cations which it might become necessary to
introduce in existing treaties in order to
make them harmonize with the present

situation."

The English Government, however, stipu-
lated beforehand " that it would be desirable
to have it understood in the first place that
all questions dealt with in the San Stefano
Treaty between Russia and Turkey '* should
be fully considered in the Congress, and
"that no alteration in the condition of things
previously established by treaty should be
acknowledged as valid until it has received
the consent of the Powers."

Russia replied that " the preliminary treaty
of peace between Russia and Turkey will be
textually committed to the Great Powers
before the meeting of the Congress, and
that in the Congress itself each Power will
have full liberty of assent and of its free
action " (" la pleine liberty de ses appreciations
et de son action ").

This was a diplomatic triumph for Eng-

i88 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

land, and the treaty was formally submitted
to the Congress. But there were certain
facts which must not escape our notice, for
just before the publication of the Treaty of
San Stefano the excitement in England had
attained its zenith. Russia, perceiving this,
and hearing that England was quite ready to
take up arms against her, took the utmost
precautions not to injure English interests ;
so a Russian occupation of Constantinople,
or any other circumstance which might
excite the enmity of England, were omitted
in the San Stefano Treaty.

When this became known in England the
excitement abated somewhat ; and, seeing
this, Russia consented to submit the treaty
to the Congress.

The Congress was opened at Berlin, under
the presidency of the German Chancellor,
Bismarck ; and Beaconsfield firmly stood his
ground at the Congress, previously calling
out the reserve forces and summoning seven
thousand Indian troops to Malta. Austria
began to arm. Russia now could not be
obstinate.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 189

The following conditions were fixed and
drawn up by the Congress :—

Bulgaria.

Article I. Bulgaria is constituted an auto-
nomous and tributary principality under the
suzerainty of His Imperial Majesty the
Sultan ; it will have a Christian Govern-
ment and a national militia.

Article III. The Prince of Bulgaria shall
be freely elected by the population and con-
firmed by the Sublime Porte, with the assent
of the Powers. No member of the reigning
dynasties of the Great European Powers
may be elected Prince of Bulgaria.

In case of a vacancy in the princely dignity,
the election of the new prince shall take place
under the same conditions and with the same
forms.

Eastern Roumelia.

Article XIII. A province is formed south
of the Balkans which will take the name of
" Eastern Roumelia," and will remain under
the direct political and military authority of

IQO JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

His Imperial Majesty the Sultan, under
conditions of administrative autonomy. It
shall have a Christian Governor-general.

Article XVII. The Governor-general of
Eastern Roumelia shall be dominated by
the Sublime Porte, with the assent of the
Powers, for a term of five years.

Crete, &c.

Article XXIII. The Sublime Porte under-
takes to scrupulously apply to the island of
Crete the Organic Law of 1868, with such
modifications as may be considered equit-
able.

Similar laws adapted to local requirements,
excepting as regards the exemption from
taxation granted to Crete, shall also be
introduced into the other parts of Turkey
in Europe for which no special organization
has been provided by the present treaty.

Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Article XXV. The provinces of Bosnia
and Herzegovina shall be occupied and ad-
ministered by Austria- Hungary.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 191

Montenegro, Servia, and Roumania.

Article XXVI. The independence of
Montenegro, Servia, and Rouinania is re-
cognized by the Sublime Porte, and by all
the high contracting parties, subject to the
conditions set forth in the following : —

In Montenegro the difference of religious
creeds and confessions shall not be alleged
against any person as a ground for exclu-
sion or incapacity in matters relating to the
enjoyment of civil and political rights, ad-
mission to public employments, functions,
and honours, or the exercise of the various
professions and industries in any locality
whatsoever.

The freedom and outward exercise of all
forms of worship shall be assured to all
persons belonging to Montenegro, as well
as to foreigners ; and no hindrance shall be
offered either to the hierarchical organization
of the different communions or to their rela-
tions with their spiritual chiefs.

Article XLV. The principality of Rou-
mania restores to His Majesty the Emperor

192 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

of Russia that portion of Bessarabian terri-
tory detached from Russia by the Treaty of
Paris of 1856.

Cessions in Asia.

Article LVIII. The Sublime Porte cedes
to the Russian Empire in Asia the territories
of Ardahan, Kars, and Batoum, together with
the latter port.

Article XIX. His Majesty the Emperor
declares that it is his intention to constitute
Batoum a free port, essentially commercial.

Article LX. The valley of Alaxhkerd and
the town of Bayazid, ceded to Russia, are
restored to Turkey.

The Sublime Porte cedes to Persia the
town and territory of Khotou for its delimi-
tation of the frontiers of Turkey and of
Persia. '

1 " The topics regulated by the three Treaties of Paris,
London, and Berlin are : —

" (i.) The admission of the Porte to the concert c '
Europe (P. Art. 7).

" (ii.) The agreement as to resort to mediation (P. 8).

" (iii.) Religious equality in Turkey (P. 9 ; B. 62).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 193

The Anglo-Turkish Convention.

Article I. Batoum, Ardahan, Kars, or
any of them, shall be retained by Russia,
and if any attempt shall be made at any
future time by Russia to take possession
of any further territories of His Imperial
Majesty the Sultan in Asia, as fixed by the
Definitive Treaty of Peace, England engages
to join His Imperial Majesty the Sultan in
defending them by force of arms.

In order to enable England to make neces-

" (iv.) The navigation of the Straits (P. 10 ; L. 2).

"(v.) The navigation of the Black Sea (P. 12 ; L. 3).

"(vi.) The navigation of the Danube (P. 13-19; L.
4-7; B. 52-57; L. 1883),

" (vii.) Roumania (B. 43-51).

" (viii.) Servia (B. 34, 40-42).

"(ix.) Montenegro (B. 26-31, 33).

"(x.) Bulgaria (B. 1-12).

" (xi.) Eastern Roumelia (B. 13—21).

"(xii.) Bosnia and Herzegovina (B. 25).
(xiii.) Other European provinces (B. 23).

" (xiv.) The Armenian provinces (B. 61).

"(xv.) Cessions to Greece (B. 24 ; Cons, of 1881).

' '(xvi.) The Russian boundaries (B. 45, 58-60).

"(xvii.) The Persian boundary (B. 60)."
(Holland's " European Concert in the Eastern Ques-
tion ").

I 1

194 . JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

sary provision for executing her engagement,
His Imperial Majesty the Sultan further
consents to assign the island of Cyprus to be
occupied and administrated by England.

Beaconsfield having thus attained " peace
with honour " for England, returned, and in
a speech : in the House, said, " They are
not movements of war, they are operations
of peace and civilization ; we have no reason
to fear war. Her Majesty has fleets and
armies which are second to none."

1 In the House of Lords, July 18, 1878.

VIII.

REMARKS UPON THE TREATY OF BERLIN.

The position of affairs — The Salisbury- Schouvaloff Memo-
randum and its disastrous effect on the negotiations
at Berlin — Russia's gain — England and Austria the
guardians of Turkey — Austria 's vigorous and straight-
forward Balkan policy — Thwarted in Servia but
triumphant in Bulgaria — Relations of Greece to Austria
— Solution of the Crete question — Neutrality of Belgium
threatened — Importance of Constantinople to Russia;
the Anglo-Turkish Convention — England s feeble policy
in Asia Minor — The question of Egypt — A new route
to India by rail-way from the Mediterranean to Persian
Gulf— England's relation to Constantinople.

LET us now review and make a few remarks
on the Treaty of Berlin.

Firstly, the whole treaty seems to me to
be virtually a repetition * and revision of the
conditions of the European concert in the
Eastern question.

Prince Bismarck's opinion was that the

1 See Holland's " European Concert in the Eastern
Question."

196 JAFAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Treaty of San Stefano meant to alter " the
state of things as fixed by former European
Conventions," consequently the Berlin Con-
gress followed for " the free discussion of
the Cabinets' signatories of the treaties of
1856 and 1871."

The Treaties of Paris and London bein^

still in force, and owing to the rise of a new
nationality and the redistribution of territory,
these treaties were altered and amended by
the Congress.

Before we criticize the Treaty of Berlin
we ought to bear two things in our mind,
(i) At the Conference of Paris, 1856, Eng-
land, France, and Turkey were victorious,
while Russia was conquered. (2) At the
Berlin Congress, 1878, Russia was victorious
over Turkey, while England and France
were neutral.

In both meetings it was asserted and
claimed that the Powers collectively had
the right of settling the Eastern Question
as against Russia's single-handed inter-
ference, England leading the van with fair
words but selfish interests.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 197

On Russia concluding the San Stefano
Treaty with Turkey, England said that,
according to the conditions of the Treaty
of Paris, the Great Powers of Europe
" engaged each on its own part to respect
the independence and integrity of the
Ottoman Empire," and consequently Turkish
affairs produced a general interest through-
out Europe.

Russia had committed a serious breach
of " the law of nations " by a treaty single-
handed with Turkey. When the European
Congress at Berlin was consented to by
Russia, England said that the Treaty of
San Stefano was not valid without the con-
sent of the signatory Powers of the Treaties
of Paris and London. She also demanded
from Russia that, "in^the Congress itself,
each Power should have full liberty of
assent and free action." These demands
seemed perfectly reasonable. However,
England, before the Berlin meeting, con-
tracted a secret agreement with Russia, in
which the modifications asked for by Eng-
land in the Treaty of San Stefano were

198 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

specified. This agreement did not leave out
the bringing in of other changes by mutual
consent, but, if these failed, tended to be a
mutual engagement by the ambassadors of
Russia and Great Britain as to their general
behaviour and conduct at the Congress. This
secret agreement between the two Powers
practically blocked the full liberty of the
other Powers and the full amount of good they
might otherwise have done. England had
been one of the first to attack Russia for
committing a breach of the Treaties of
Paris and London ; yet she overlooked the
fact that she herself had morally broken
the same treaties by her secret negotiation
with Russia, the other Powers not being at
the time cognizant of the fact.

Once more Russia, by the Black Sea
Conference, had gained full freedom on the
Black Sea, now she had regained the part
of Bessarabia which she had lost during the
Crimean War, the principal object of which
was to drive Russia from the banks of the
Danube. The above-mentioned territory
was ceded to Russia through the influence

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 199

of Lord Salisbury, who had secretly promised
Schouvaloff, the Russian ambassador, that he
would support the Russian demand with
regard to that land.

By the Berlin Treaty England and Austria
were invested with a special responsibility
for protecting the integrity of the Ottoman
Empire against Russian aggression — Eng-
land in Asia Minor, and Austria in the
Balkans.

If Russia attacked through Asia Minor
the English interests would be imperilled ;
and by the disappearance of the Balkan
States, then Austria would be open to
Russian immediate attacks — a consummation
which wrould be little desired by that
Power.

This responsibility has undoubtedly from
that time engrossed the attention of Austria
and Hungary. She has had to encounter
several difficulties. Bessarabia was no longer
a Turkish province, and had been ceded
to Russia by the Salisbury-SchouvalorT
memorandum. Also there was no possi-
bility of the Balkan States being confede-

200 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

rated owing to the different races, language,
and feelings of the nationality.

In September, 1879, Bismarck visited
Vienna and concluded an Austro-German de-
fensive alliance against the alliance of France
and Russia. Bismarck, however, described
the German policy in the following terse
manner : " Fight by all means, if you feel
yourself strong enough to beat Russia
single-handed. France and Germany will
see all fair, and you can hardly expect any-
body effectually to help you."

Notwithstanding these rather unfavourable
circumstances, and her financial difficulties as
well, still the policy of Austria is at the
present time carried on straightforwardly and
vigorously, and the duty with which she
charged herself at the Berlin Treaty is ably
done, and is well backed up by the five
million Magyars who inhabit Hungary and
the adjoining provinces. This nation had
been cruelly put under Austria by Russia
(1848-49), and consequently their hatred
against Russia was deeply rooted.

At present, therefore, Russia's schemes

THE EASTERN QUESTION.- 201

with regard to Constantinople have been
frustrated, and Austria holds the lead in the
Balkan Peninsula race.

Austria was asked to occupy Bosnia and
Herzegovina, in order to secure peace and
order there. She did so, and, notwithstand-
ing an armed resistance, entered and fulfilled
her promise. She is now strengthening her
hold on these states by stationary garrisons
of soldiers in different parts, and also Jesuits,
who exercise a moral influence over the
people. The affairs of Servia have also
deeply occupied the attention of the Austrian
Government. She captured King Milan,
and used him as a tool for her own purposes.
Russia, however, desired to get hold of
Servia through the ex-queen.

Intrigues at the Servian Court were
numerous, and at last the miserable divorce
of the king and queen leaked out. The
present young king ascended the throne.
This was a blow to the Austrian influence.

Bulgaria had been declared an independent
country by the Berlin Treaty. 4On this state
the question of supremacy between Russia

202 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

and Austria in the Balkans hangs to a great
degree. In 1855 Bulgaria and Eastern
Roumelia were united into a single state.
This revolution occasioned very great dis-
pleasure in Russia, and under her influence
Prince Alexander was kidnapped and com-
pelled to abdicate, and Prince Ferdinand of
Coburg was elected as the ruling prince.

Although of German extraction, he is
an Austrian by allegiance, and a Roman
Catholic. He was originally an officer in
the Hungarian army. There seems to me no
doubt that his election was illegal, because,
in the first place, by the Berlin Treaty the
ruling prince must belong to the Greek
Church.

Prince Ferdinand was quite ready to sub-
mit his claim for decision to the Great
Powers, and abide by the result. All the
Powers except England and Austria declared
that he had no claim to the crown, but the
two had their own way, and he ascended
the Bulgarian throne — another repulse and
blow to Russian influence. Prince Alexander
meanwhile was given a post in the Austro-

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 203

Hungarian army. Only recently, to show
the friendly spirit that exists between Austria
and Bulgaria, a loan has been concluded
and advanced by the former to the latter.

Undoubtedly Austria committed a slight
mistake in her policy with regard to Greece.
She had arrogantly displayed her fleet and
strength at Salonika, which no doubt was a
source of irritation to Greece. Her best
policy would have been kindness and con-
sideration, not forcible means, for the pros-
perity of Austria was. to a certain extent
dependent on her treatment of neighbouring
countries, and, together with the Great Powers
she was to a certain extent dependent upon
Greece's action. The latter, therefore, was
a necessary bulwark against Russian en-
croachments, and was thus of primary im-
portance to England, France, and Italy.
If, therefore, the Turks were driven from
Europe, Greece would occupy the place of
Turkey with regard to Russia, and would be
the only obstacle to Russian Mediterranean
advance. " I would never permit," said the
Czar Nicholas, " such an extension of Greece

204 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

as would render her a powerful state." Truly
Greece might well be called the Belgium of
the Mediterranean !

By the Berlin Treaty the Porte was advised
to cede Thessaly and Epirus to Greece. This
was done, and as the Greeks were noted for
being good traders and sailors, great progress
and improvement was made in their newly
acquired territory.

It is difficult to see the reason why the
Berlin Congress did not advise the Porte to
cede Crete to Greece. If the island was left
alone it would be harmless, and exercise no
influence on the naval supremacy of the
Mediterranean.

However, an occupation of Crete by a Euro-
pean Power would to a great extent change
the balance of naval power in the Mediter-
ranean, destroy European tranquillity and
peace, the Levant would be in the hands of
the Cretan occupiers. Again, its position
would completely command the ^gean Sea,
and if properly fortified might be rendered
almost impregnable. Its natural wealth,
population, and general productiveness

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 205

afford ample resources both in times of
war and peace ; in fact, it might be very-
well termed the Second Gate to the Black
Sea.

Therefore it seems to me the best policy
to let this important island remain in a
neutral state by an agreement between the
Great Powers, and the sooner it is agreed
to the better it would be for the peace of
Europe generally.

In my opinion it would have been better
to have placed it under Grecian rule for the
following reasons : — -

(i) Because Greece herself was a neutral
nation. (2) They were a commercial people,
and peaceful, which would have a beneficial
effect upon the island. (3) More than half
of the Cretan population are of Grecian
extraction.

There is no doubt that if any one l of the
Great Powers had proposed the cession of

1 At the ninth meeting of the Congress "the Greek
delegates asked the Congress to sanction the annexation
to the Hellenic Kingdom of the island of Crete, and the
province of Thessaly and Epirus " (The Duke of Argyll's
"The Eastern Question," vol. ii. p. 167).

206 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Crete to Greece it would have met with the
general approbation of the Congress. This
would not have met with Turkish opposition,
particularly as England had before the Berlin
Congress mentioned it in the Anglo-Turkish
agreement ; and to show that Turkey did not
attach much importance to Crete, it is related
in Turkish history that it was offered to
Mehemet Ali as a reward for his help in the
Greek insurrection ; besides, the national force
of Turkey was not large enough to utilize
the strong natural position of the island.

Austria,1 unless she had been influenced by
her national vanity, would have agreed to
such a proposal owing to the great value as a
national defence that she received from the
Balkan States. Again, Germany, France,

1 "Russia had pointedly and emphatically declared
that she would not oppose any larger measure of liberty
which the Congress might desire to secure to the
provinces bordering on Greece. There was no symptom
of any serious opposition from any other Powers. But
England had deserted the cause of Greece, because they
sold it to the Turks as part of the price to be paid for the
island of Cyprus" (The Duke of Argyll's, "The Eastern-
Question," vol. ii. p. 170).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 207

and Italy could find no reasonable argument
for opposing this plan.

The policy of England with regard to a
neutral state has always been to strengthen
its national power, and that to such a degree
as to properly maintain its fixed neutrality.

In 1815 England ceded the Java Islands
to the Dutch on the formation of the Nether-
lands at the Congress of Vienna. Why did
she do this ? For this reason : because by
doing this the new States would be rendered
neutral in .case of a French or German inva-
sion, and by this cession of Java the Dutch
national power was increased in every way,
and their power of maintaining a strict
neutrality rendered stronger.

Another instance may strengthen my
statement. Corfu, an important military
and naval post, was put under English
protection at the Vienna Congress, 1815.
Lord Palmerston at one time saw that it
would be impolitic to hand over Corfu to
Austria, and declared that the islands ought
never to be abandoned by England.

However, when the new kingdom of

208 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Greece was formed England cordially agreed
to hand over Corfu and several other islands
to Greece, on the condition that the Greeks
should choose a king subject to the approval
of England. The fortifications of Corfu were
demolished, and the neutrality of the islands
was declared by the Great Powers.

These circumstances, then, tend to show us
that England was distinctly favourable l to
the cession of Crete to Greece, and they were
considerably strengthened by the fact that
Greece was an ally of England, and the
commercial relations between the two were
very free.

There is no doubt that the marriage of the
Crown Prince of Greece with a German
Princess (1889) has morally strengthened
the position and power of Greece. However,
Greece still needs material strength for the
maintenance of a strict neutrality.

1 " Returning to Greece," said Beaconsfield, " no one
could doubt as to the future of this country. States,
like individuals, which have a future, are in a position to
be able to wait " (The Duke of Argyll's " The Eastern
Question," vol. ii. p. 169).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 209

Turning to another country, we find that it
is a matter of considerable doubt whether
Belgium can maintain a firm neutrality in
case of a Franco-German war. At the time
of Lord Palmerston she might perhaps have
been able to do so, but the recent discoveries
in the world of science, and their application
to military purposes, and the immense increase
of the French and German armies, have
changed the military world, and the neutrality
of Belgium is a doubtful point. In 1887 an
important discussion on this question took
place, which resulted in the fortification of
Namur and Liege. This was followed by
the fortification of the Meuse, but it is said
that the Belgians have not enough troops to
garrison these newly-made defences. It has
been publicly admitted in Belgium that their
national force is not sufficient to defend a
violation of neutrality against France and
Germany, therefore Belgium must regard
the first violator of her neutrality as her
national enemy, and will be obliged to ally
herself with a nation which is an enemy of
the state which has violated neutrality. This

210 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

is not the Belgium which Lord Palmerston
meant it to be.

Another important fact is that since the
Franco-German war German attention has
been turned to the North Sea, and a new
naval harbour and arsenal have been built at
Wihelmshafen. Two other large harbours
in the North Sea have also been improved
lately, viz., Hamburg and Bremen. Kiel,
the finest port on the Baltic, has been confis-
cated, and is now connected with the North
Sea by a canal, through which ships of large
tonnage may one day pass. Numerous
ironclads and fleets of large merchant and
emigrant steam vessels have been constructed
which, in case of war, can be armed and
turned into transports. Her land forces have
been well organized and augmented, and
military tactics scientifically developed. From
these threatening facts it is certain that in the
event of a Franco-German war both Holland
and Belgium would occupy most dangerous
positions. Having these events staring them
in the face, only one expedient could present
itself to the two states, viz., union. This

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 211

would enable them to show a powerful front
to the rival Powers, and would enable them
both to maintain a united fixed neutrality,
thus showing Lord Palmerston's mistaken
policy of the separation of the two states to
be a weak one with regard to the present
state of affairs, though perhaps it may have
served its purpose at that time.

All these arguments go to prove that a
cession of Crete to Greece would be beneficial
to both European and Grecian interests.

Constantinople was hardly mentioned in
the Berlin Treaty, although it is said that
Lord Beaconsfield had suggested to General
Ignatieff a Russian occupation of the Bos-
phorus with an English one of Mitylene.
Ignatieff said, however, that " Mitylene was
too near, as it was only two hours' steam
from the north of the Dardanelles." Lord
Beaconsfield did not, therefore, press the
discussion. The importance of Constanti-
nople can be explained in a few words.

By possession of the Straits Russia would
be able to make the Black Sea a second
Caspian, whose coasts are left undefended,

212 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

and it would become a great Russian arsenal,
for ten or fifteen thousand troops would
be sufficient to shut out an English fleet from
the Straits, and by this means quite two
hundred thousand Russian troops could be
withdrawn from the Black Sea and turned to
the Balkans, Asia Minor, or Central Asia.

The Anglo-Turkish Convention.

Notwithstanding the fact that Austria has
fulfilled her contract in preventing Russian
aggression through the Balkans, yet Russia
could find a way through Asia Minor,
although her progress through Asia was
stopped by England at the Anglo-Turkish
Convention.

By this treaty, however, England committed
a still more grave and serious breach of the
Treaties of 1856 and 1871 than by this
Berlin Treaty. Yet although England and
Russia had made a secret agreement before-
hand, still the Berlin Treaty was discussed
and drawn up by the Congress. Therefore
England was only morally to blame. But

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 213

the Anglo-Turkish Convention was concluded
between the two countries themselves, and
was never submitted for the consideration of
the Great Powers. Lord Beaconsfield sought
to screen England by declaring that Russia
had concluded the San Stefano Treaty with
Turkey without the knowledge and consent
of the Powers, and Russia herself, therefore,
had broken the principles of the 1856 and
1871 Treaties. Yet this did not conceal the
fact that England herself had not acted up
to her tenets in the Anglo-Turkish Conven-
tion.

The Porte ceded Ardahan, Kars, and
Batoum, together with its port, to Russia.
England occupied Cyprus, and engaged to
defend Asiatic Turkey, Syria, Palestine,
Assyria, Arabia, and Armenia, against Rus-
sian invasion.

Has England performed her contract in
Asiatic Turkey as Austria has done in the
Balkans ? We will see. Cyprus is left
almost in the same condition as it was before
our English occupation, and nothing has
been done by England for the defence of

214 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Asiatic Turkey, while only a few hundred
soldiers guard against a Russian invasion

o o

in Asia Minor. Surely this cannot be
a sufficient number of men to withstand a
Russian army. What, then, has become of
the Anglo-Turkish Convention ? Russia has
taken advantage of this, and is doing her
utmost to bring about war in that quarter.

By the Berlin Treaty the Russian Emperor
declared that it was his intention to constitute
Batoum a free port essentially commercial.
Lord Salisbury interpreted this remark that
the port of Batoum was to be only a com-
mercial port. The Russian Emperor has,
however, changed his intention, and Batoum
is essentially a fortress, and is connected with
Poti by a railway through Kutais.

Why cannot, therefore, Russia have an idea
of breaking the Berlin Treaty with equal
freedom as England did with regard to the
Treaties of 1856 and 1871 by concluding the
Anglo-Turkish Convention single-handed ?
It seems to me that Russia has a great
opportunity of advancing to Erzeroum, and
from there proceeding to Alexandretta ; and

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 2 1 5

from there to Constantinople. At any rate
she has ample opportunities of reaching the
Persian Gulf by piercing the northern fron-
tiers and western part of Persia, and thus
completing the far-seeing policies of Peter
the Great, Nicholas, and Alexander.

How can England withstand this ? When
Cyprus was placed under English administra-
tion both France and Italy were opposed to
this, France especially so, because she had a
special interest with regard to Syria* How-
ever, she concluded a secret agreement with
England, that the latter would consent to a
•French Protectorate over Tunis, which was
done in 1881, a protectorate which is now
extending to Tripoli. Many regard this
action of France as an indirect third offer of
Egypt to England, the first having been
made by Nicholas I., and the second by Louis
Philippe.

Whatever the French occupation of Tunis
might be, England occupied Egypt in 1885,
thus fulfilling Lord Palmerston's prophecy of
a quarter of a century before, when he said
that " if a practicable waterway were created

216 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

between the Gulf of Pelusium and the Red
Sea England would be compelled sooner or
later to annex Egypt, and that he opposed
M. de Lessep's scheme because he considered
it undesirable that England should annex
territory in that part of the world." l

The Suez Canal was opened in 1869, and
Lord Palmerston's prophecy was fulfilled.
In 1875 the English Government purchased
the Khedive's shares (^4,000,000) in the
Suez Canal, and this was followed by the
bombardment of Alexandria by the British
fleet in 1885. The chief aim of the English
occupation of Egypt was " to possess the inns
on the north road." 2

1 The explanation of Lord Palmerston's opposition
to M. de Lessep's scheme, which was given confidentally
by him to one of his subordinates in the Foreign Office.

2 "We do not want Egypt, or wish it for ourselves
any more than any rational man, with an estate in the
north of England and a residence in the south, would
have wished to possess the inns on the north road. All
he could want would have been that the inns should be
well kept, always accessible, and furnishing him, when he
came, with mutton chops and post horses. We want to
trade with Egypt, and to travel through Egypt " (Lord
Palmerston's Letter to Lord Cowley, November 25, 1859).

THE EA STERN Q UES TION. 2 1 7

It will be impossible to avoid the conflict
of English and French interests as long as
there is only one route through the Suez
Canal to India, and an Anglo-French alliance
on the subject seems to be far distant, par-
ticularly as England has three-fourths of the
traffic through the canal.

It is also a matter of great importance that
England should keep Egypt orderly and
peaceful. Lord Salisbury, in an excellent
speech on Lord Mayor's Day, 1889, said :

"We (English) have undertaken to sustain
Egypt until she is competent to sustain
herself against every enemy, foreign or
domestic. We cannot see that that time
has yet arrived. It may arrive quicker or
lat.er. Other Powers may help us by con-
curring in measures which will improve the
position and increase the prosperity of
Egypt, or they may defer that day by taking
an opposite course. But whether the day
comes sooner or later, our policy remains
unaltered, and we will pursue our task to the
end."

We can easily get at the pith of Lord

218 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Salisbury's speech. If France again became
a co-partner of England in establishing peace
and order in Egypt, then England would be
quite willing to restore the dual control
with regard to Egypt, and Lord Salisbury in
1878 had declared that England did not
desire to annex Egypt.

The dual control of France and England
with regard to Egypt might possibly settle
affairs there temporarily, or neutralize that
country on the same lines as Belgium ; but
still this is not a sufficient guarantee against
an Anglo-French dispute on the Egyptian
question.

The French Government of the present
day is not noted for stability, always chang-
ing, never agreeing, and ready for foreign
quarrels, and although now they are support-
ing the English Government in Egypt, it is
not safe to depend upon them, for the feeling
of rivalry is sure to arise, and great caution
has to be exercised in order to prevent
complications arising. No matter what
happens, England must have free communi-
cation with India, and as long as there is

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 219

only one road, ruptures will be inevitable,
and there can be no firm alliance as in the
case of the Crimean War.

It seems to me to be a favourable time to
suggest to Turkey the construction of a rail-
way from Constantinople or some other port
on the Mediterranean to Bussorah on the
Persian Gulf : why should not England
undertake the construction herself? This
route would certainly possess four great
advantages :

(1) It would be a shorter route to India.

(2) It would be a valuable means of quick
transportation of either Turkish or English
troops for the defence oi Asia Minor.

(3) It would avoid a clashing of English
and French interests in Egypt to a certain
extent, and a dual control would thereby be
strengthened, and would produce two more
results, viz : —

(a) A firmer alliance between England
and France.

(b) England would be able to reduce her
troops in Egypt, and devote them to the
defence of Asia Minor, and by this means be

220 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

more able to withstand Russian attacks in
that quarter and in Persia.

(4) Lastly, Turkey would be strengthened
financially owing to the prosperity of her
commerce, and productions in Asia Minor,
which is the usual effect of such a communi-
cation.

By this means England can fulfil her
public duty to Turkey, which she had under-
taken to do by the Anglo-Turkish Conven-
tion, and can maintain her national honour
pledged when Lord Beaconsfield and Count
Andrassy discussed the defence of Turkey
from Russian invasion in Asia and Europe.

It is difficult to see why this railway
scheme was not brought forward at the
Anglo-Turkish Convention, because it
appears to me to be of primary importance
for the defence of both Asia Minor and
India ; and also how it escaped the mind of
so clever a statesman as Lord Beaconsfield.

It has, however, been informally discussed
both at political meetings and by pamphlet
only recently : the financial difficulties seemed
quite surmountable, but political opinions

THE EA STERN Q UES TION. 2 2 1

are decidedly at variance on the subject.
But it is my opinion that England would be
perfectly right in compelling Turkey to carry
out this scheme, and if she was not able to
execute it, then England could perform it
herself, and she would be only fulfilling one
of the duties which she has undertaken to
perform with the Sultan at the Anglo-
Turkish Convention.

The following articles strangely enough
appeared in one of the English daily
papers l : —

" The tradition, adhered to even by Lord
Beaconsfield, of remaining allied with Turkey
at all hazards, is no longer advocated even
by Conservative occupants of the Foreign
Office. Since the occupation by England of
Cyprus, and still more of Egypt, Constanti-
nople has lost much of its importance to
England. The Russian fleet in the Black
Sea would, in the event of war, pass through
the Dardanelles, with or without the Sultan's
consent, and advance into the Mediterranean.
The rule of the Sultan at Constantinople,
1 Pall Mall, September 15, 1886.

222 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

therefore, no longer affords a guarantee
against a Russian attack of the English
possessions in the Mediterranean. Russia
already possesses a road to India via Merv,
and the possession of Constantinople could
afford her no resistance in this direction."

" England, on the other hand, in the event
of Russia's impeding the conveyance of
English troops through the Suez Canal, has
at her disposal another way to India, one
which leads exclusively through British
dominions — the new Canadian railway. One
no longer thinks of defending India at
Constantinople, but in Afghanistan and on
the Anglo-Afghan frontier. England has as
much interest as the other Powers in pre-
venting Russia from advancing towards
Constantinople, but this is no longer held to
be a vital interest that would have to be
protected even by force of arms."

This is certainly a serious mistake in
policy if backed up by the English Govern-
ment, even more so than that of the Duke of
Wellington, 1827-1830.

If Constantinople were once occupied by

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 223

Russia, it is certain that Turkey would be a
thing of the past, the Russian fleet on the
Black Sea would at once sail into the
Mediterranean and attack the English
supremacy there. The Russian occupation
would enable them to withdraw quite 200,000
troops from the Black Sea coasts which
could be used for an attack on the Balkans,
Armenia, or Central Asia ; Cyprus would be
lost to England, and Asia Minor to Turkey ;
Russia would have a largely increased power
in the Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf
would be no longer open to English ships.

If the Franco- Russian alliance of to-day
remained firm, and war was to be declared,
then England would only have two long
routes to India: (a) round the Cape of Good
Hope, (<5) the new Canadian railway. Lord
Charles Beresford said, " With the Cape
well fortified and held by a military force,
England might laugh at the world." But
the Cape would be unsafe, owing to France
having now firm hold of the Indian Ocean
" Malta," viz., Madagascar.

Notwithstanding that the new Canadian

224 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

route passes exclusively through British
dominions, yet it cannot be called a direct
route, for it is certainly a seven days longer
journey than the Gibraltar route to Cal-
cutta. Russia, on the other hand, could
send an immense number of troops in seven
or ten days from Moscow to the Afghan
frontiers, and in about another extra day
from St. Petersburg, or the Caucasian
Peninsula.

This would be all in favour of Russia
gaining the first military move — a matter of
extreme importance in the present advanced
stage of military tactics.

This question may also be viewed from
two other points : —

First, Cobden l and Bright were once
under the idea that if Russia occupied
Constantinople, she would change into a

1 " If Russia obtained Constantinople, she must cease
to be barbarous before she could become formidable ;
and if she made a great navy, it must be by doing as the
Venetians, the Dutch, the English, and the Americans did,
by the accumulation of wealth, the exercise of industry,
the superior skill and intelligence of her artizans "
(Cobden's Manchester Speech).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 225

peaceful and civilized nation, and that Eng-
land would be materially benefited com-
mercially. This was merely an imaginary
dream, for there is no doubt in my mind
that a Russian occupation of the Turkish
capital is a preliminary to shutting out Eng-
lish trade from the Black Sea by heavy
protective duties. Second, England has
engaged herself, together with the other
European Powers, to respect the integrity
and independence of the Ottoman Empire
by the Treaties of Paris, London, and Berlin,
and still more emphatically by the Anglo-
Turkish Convention. If, therefore, she
followed the policy of leaving Constantinople
to its fate, and simply defended her interests
on the Afghan frontiers, she would at once
be branded with disgrace, and stigmatized as
a breaker of the 1856, 1871, and 1878
Treaties, and a backslider from the Anglo-
Turkish Convention.

At the present time, however, an indirect
change of policy may be observed. Early
in March, 1889, the First Lord of ths
Admiralty (Lord George Hamilton) intro-

226 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

duced and passed the Naval Defences Bill,
authorizing an expenditure of ^"21,500,000
on the Navy by constructing eight first
and two second-class battle-ships, nine first-
class and thirty-three smaller cruisers, and
eighteen torpedo gun-boats. This surely
implies that England is determined to pre-
vent Russian encroachments both at Con-
stantinople and in the Mediterranean.

Reviewing the above, the following things
seem plainly revealed, viz., that Russia has
in the majority of cases assumed an offensive
policy while England has maintained a de-
fensive one with regard to Eastern Europe.

Pitt started a splendid scheme of resist-
ance against Russia ; Canning worked upon
it, and developed the European Concert
scheme with regard to Turkey; Palmerston
improved, expanded, and eventually com-
pleted a perfectly harmonious unison; while
Beaconsfield composed and worked varia-
tions upon the original strain of the Concert.
Surely the example of such noble and great
statesmen is worthy of veneration both in
the present and the future.

IX.

CENTRAL ASIA.

Rise of British power in India — Rivalry of France— Aims
of Napoleon — Russian influence in Central Asia — Its
great extension after the Crimean War — And after
the Berlin Congress — Possible points of attack on
India — Constantinople the real aim of Russia's Asiatic
policy — Recent Russian annexations and railways in
Central Asia — Reaction of Asiatic movements on the
Balkan question — Dangerous condition of Austria-
Possible futttre Russian advances in Asia — England's
true policy the constrtiction of a speedy route to India
by railway from the Mediterranean to the Persian
Gulf— Alliance of England, France, Turkey, Austria,
and Italy would effectively th^djart Russian schemes.

I DO not mean to detain my readers for
any length of time upon this tedious subject
which has been so often discussed. I shall
sketch the policy of England and Russia in
the region in question. However, it must
not be forgotten that the subject is important,
as it leads up to the great Pacific Question
which will occupy European attention for
many years to come.

228 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

The foundation of the British Empire in
India dates from the Battle of Plassey, June
23> T757» and Clive's Second Governorship
of the East India Company established the
India administration on a firm basis.

Warren Hastings improved and properly
organized the foundation laid by Clive, and
Lord Cornwallis consolidated Bengal and
the other chief states, and rendered them
fairly secure.

Lord Wellesley was the first who felt fully
convinced that England should be the per-
manent predominant Power in India, and he
carried out this policy by extensive sub-
sidiary alliances with native princes by which
the states were placed under British pro-
tection.

It is said that this policy was suggested
by " the great events that were taking place
in Europe, where French ideas and French
arms under the genius of Bonaparte were
reducing kingdoms and states to provinces
of an Empire.'' *

Lord Minto first opened relations with the
1 Carlo's " British India," p. 59.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 229

Punjaub, Afghanistan, and Persia. He was
succeeded by Lord Moira, who saw that the
British frontiers in India could never be
secured till the natural barrier of the Hima-
layas and the sea were reached ; while Lord
Dalhousie proved a faithful follower and im-
prover of this policy, and at last made India
a completely organized state.

England's Opponents in British India.

The Portuguese ascendency in India was
of short duration. It was followed by a
keen rivalry between the English and
French, the former eventually obtaining the
precedence. This was owing to the naval
superiority of the English in Indian seas,
under the wise guidance of Chatham, sup-
ported by the skilful military and civil ad-
ministration of Clive and Hastings.

In 1/97-1798 Napoleon threatened to in-
vade India from the north; first he threatened
an attack from the Deccan, then in the
latter part of the year he concluded an
alliance with several Asiatic princes pre-

230 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

paratory to another attack from the same
quarter.

The Marquis Wellesley was at once sent
out and landed in Madras, April 26, 1798.
Affairs seemed critical. Napoleon was pre-
paring for a great invasion of Egypt prior
to a descent on India. Tippoo Sultan, in
India, was raising troops, disciplined under
French management, and strengthened by
French help, commanded by Raymond.
Rao Sindia (the Mahratta ruler), the Pesha-
war (Governor of Poonah), the Ameer of
Afghanistan, and Holkar were all hostile
to English interests in India, and threatened
to plunge everything into war with the
assistance of the French.

Wellesley plainly saw that a defensive
policy was the best. Accordingly he made
an alliance with some of the Mahratta powers
to frustrate a French invasion from the
north. He also strongly urged the English
Home Government to take possession of
the Cape of Good Hope, and the Isles of
France and Bourbon, in order to cut off
the sea route to India from France. This

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 231

advice was followed by the English Govern-
ment, who retained Malta, Mauritius, the Cape
of Good Hope, and the Ionian Islands by the
provisions of the Congress of Vienna, 1815.

He then began to crush Tippoo Sultan and
his allies, and by the brilliant victories of
Assaye and Argaum brought them to his feet.
Having conquered these Native states he
now began to take measures to consolidate
them. He allowed the princes to retain
their titles, but subjected them to the English
Power, which secured them from foreign
aggression, and also let them have full liberty
with regard to internal administration.

On his recall in 1805 a policy of non-
interference was carried on by his successor,
Lord Cornvvallis.

During the Napoleonic European War,
Lord Minto was Governor-General. Under
his able administration the French Isles of
Bourbon and Mauritius and the Dutch East
Indian Islands were captured. He also sent
political missions into Persia, Sindia, and
Poonah to crush down the French influence
and intrigue there.

232 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Napoleon fell in 1815, and the most for-
midable opponent to British Indian interests
disappeared.

Yet the Marquis of Hastings and his suc-
cessors still carried out the same policy of
annexation as had been in existence during
the alarms of Napoleon, and the Indian
frontiers have ever since been keenly watched
and guarded from foreign attack. The second
Mahratta War (1817-1819) and the first
Burmese War (1824-1826) are instances of
British watchfulness over the frontiers.

As was to be expected, Russia appeared
on the scene in the place of France, and
the drama of the Anglo- Russian struggle in
Afghanistan was enacted in 1837.

For some time previously Russia had been
gradually advancing into Central Asia. This
movement started with Peter the Great,
while Alexander I. arranged with Napoleon
by the Treaty of Tilsit (1807) to annex what-
ever he pleased in Central Asia. Hence the
Russian boast of Nicholas that " Russia has
no boundary in Central Asia." For some
time, however, Turkish affairs occupied the

THE EXPANSION OF RUSSIA IN ASIA.

THE EASTERN QUESTIOX. 235

Russian minds, and Asia was left untouched,
while for twenty or thirty years after the fall
of Napoleon, all the great countries were
endeavouring to restore the balance of power
in Europe. Then in 1830 Russia began to
show her hand, and seized Jaxartes, and in
1837 the siege of Herat by the Persians (no
doubt incited by the Russians), which is
sometimes called the north-western gate of
India, and the failure of negotiations with
Dost Mohammed, who was backed by Russian
influence, urged the English to take strong
measures in order to protect India from
Russian invasion, especially through the
two Afghan Passes, the Bolon and Khy-
ber.

The first English move was the sending
of an expedition to Cabul, and its occupation
in 1839. Its intention was to place a ruler
over Afghanistan who should be under Eng-
lish influence. This was considered defensive
policy.

In 1847 Lord Palmerston wrote to Lord
John Russell the following : —

" The roads through Persia are good, and

236 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC,

the Caspian gives additional facilities. From
Astrabad through Afghanistan are very
practicable military roads. A Russian force
in occupation of Afghanistan might convert
Afghanistan into the advanced post of Russia."

The annexation of Sind (1843), Punjaub
(1849), Oudh (1856), and the second Bur-
mese War (1852), are all policies on the same
lines.

Just at this period Russia was warmly
engaged with Turkish affairs, and in 1853-
1856 was employed in the Crimean War
against England, France, and Turkey. She
was beaten, and by the Treaty of Paris was
driven back from the Danube, and forbidden
to put a Russian fleet of any description in
the Black Sea, and the fortifications of Sebas-
topol were dismantled. Thus a Russian
advance on the Balkans and Armenia seemed
then almost hopeless. Therefore she turned
her attention to Central Asia, and vigorously
carried out her plans for several years.

In 1864 the Russian forces captured
Tchenken, in Turkestan, and she had ad-
vanced as far as the river Syr Daria. In

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 237

1865 she declared war with Bokhara, and
captured Taskend, which was followed by the
surrenderor Khojind (1866).

In 1867 the province of Syr Adria was
annexed, and in the same year Nicholas in-
stalled a Russian Government in Turkestan.
In 1868 Samarcand was subjugated, and the
Ameer of Bokhara was practically made a
vassal of the Czar. In 1869 Krasnovodok,
on the east coast of the Caspian, next fell a
prey to Russian greed, and a fort was built
there, and at present forms one of the Russian
military outposts.

During and after the Franco-German War
she was busily engaged in Central Asia, and
still increased and extended her boundaries,
until at length the Oxus was reached, and
the Clarendon boundary in 1872 for a time
stopped her roving footsteps. In 1873, how-
ever, the whole territory of the Khan of
Khiva was drawn in, and the river Atrak
was now the boundary with Persia. Zeraf-
shan next fell before her, and now the Tian
Shan mountains and the eastern part of
Semipolatinsk formed the eastern boundary

238 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

with China. Lastly, 1876 saw the annexa-
tion of Ferghana.

Let us now direct our attention to the
English frontiers and territory, which she
was trying to consolidate more firmly.

The Indian Mutiny of 1857 had led to the
transferring of the Government of India from
the East India Company to the Crown, and
the reins of government from a Governor-
General to a Viceroy (1858). The tour of
the Prince of Wales through India, 1875-
1876, had done a good deal of good in creat-
ing a friendly feeling with the natives, and
he had met with a brilliant reception. This
was the preliminary to Queen Victoria being
proclaimed Empress of India in 1877.

The Russo-Turkish War (1878), the San
Stefano Treaty, and the Congress of Berlin,
produced a new phase in the Afghan ques-
tion. The opposition of Austria to Russia
at the Balkans, the defence of England in
Asia Minor, both by the provisions of the
Berlin Treaty, and the Anglo-Turkish Con-
vention had frustrated the schemes of
Russia in Europe; she therefore turned her

THE EA STERN Q UES TION, 2 39

undivided energies to her advance in Central
Asia, with the object of dividing the atten-
tion and forces of the English between Asia
Minor and the Afghan frontiers.

In 1880 the final conquest of the Turco-
mans along the northern frontier of Persia
and the east coast of the Caspian facilitated
her designs, and Askhabad was occupied.
The dispute of the Kulja frontier with China
was a winning move also in the eastern
direction, also a part of Semipolatinsk was
added, and fresh boundaries were made in
the south-west of Ferghana towards the
Chinese Empire, which measure caused Eng-
land to adopt a defensive policy by the third
Burmese War (1885).

In 1882 the Russo-Merv Convention was
concluded, finally deciding the submission of
the latter, while in 1884 " His Imperial
Highness (of Russia) had determined to ac-
cept the allegiance of the Merv-Turcomans,
and to send an officer to administer the
government of that region." T The annexa-
tion of Merv gave Russia possession of the

1 Sir E. Thornton's telegram from St. Petersburg.

24o JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

river Murghab, giving her an opportunity of
having a waterway to Herat if needed.

This action compelled England to appoint
a Commission to define the North-West
frontier of Afghanistan (1885). England at
this time was worried also with Egyptian
affairs. Russia, notwithstanding, advanced
and occupied Sarakhs and various other
posts on the North-West frontier, all being
strategically important. This aroused the
English Government, who at once asked for
a vote of credit of ^11,000,000, and began
to show such a determined front that Russia
was compelled to make certain conces-
sions.

However, at the conclusion of the negotia-
tions it was found that Russia had pushed
herself a considerable distance towards Herat,
and had reached Ak Robat, while the railway
to Samarcand was nearly finished. Thus
Russia certainly scored a winning point, and,
if desirous, could attack the Anglo-Indian
frontier by three ways :

(i) By advancing towards Cabul from
Bokhara across the Oxus.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 241

(2) By marching towards Candahar vi&
Herat by the Meshed line.

(3) By attacking the same place through
the Attric Valley and Merv route.

The unsettled condition of the boundary
between the Oxus and the Heri Rud, and
particularly the Upper Oxus, will undoubtedly
prove a source of discord between Russia
and England for many years to come.

In spite of the strenuous efforts of Russia
in advancing, and extending her power and
boundaries in Central Asia, yet her great and
absorbing thought was not revealed openly
to the watchful eyes of European Powers,
viz., to have full control of Constantinople,
the key to the Black Sea, and by obtaining
this to command the Mediterranean and be
paramount in Western Europe.

A favourite manoeuvre in military opera-
tions is to try and divert an opponent's eyes
from the true point of attack, and by so doing
to weaken the opposition at that point.

As we have casually mentioned before, the
elder Pitt " conquered America in Germany,"
and afterwards when Charles III. of Spain

242 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

concluded a secret Treaty known as the
(third) " Family compact " with France, in-
tending really to make war upon England,
Chatham ".determined to attack without delay
the Havannah and Philippine Islands."

Again, as another illustration of the above
statement, we saw that Napoleon's Egyptian
expedition and his invasion of Russia were
really underhand blows at England.

But why did he not attack America or
Ireland ? Surely if he had sailed directly
from Brest, 1798, to either of the above
places, instead of going to Egypt as he did,
with the combined fleets of France, Spain,
and Holland, he would have dealt a much
deadlier blow at British power.

Let us examine the policy of Russia which
has caused me to make the above statement.

Catherine II. had resolved to reach Con-
stantinople through the Balkan Peninsula.
Pitt withstood this resolution by supporting
the Ottoman Empire, together with Austria,
as conducive to the interests of both nations.
Austria, therefore, became an enemy of
Russia.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 243

Alexander I., therefore, seeing the united
interests of England, France, Austria, and
Turkey allied against him, changed his front
and determined to reach Constantinople
along the Caucasian route. He plainly saw
that by this manoeuvre he would compel
England and France to defend the Caucasus.

At the beginning of his career the Czar
Nicholas followed the same plans as his
predecessor, but carried them out much more
firmly ; he increased his field of operations
by invading Persia, 1826-1828, and occupied
Armenia.

By this measure, no doubt, he expected to
attract either England or France, perhaps
both of them, to the Caucasian Question,
thereby weakening the power of their alliance
in the Balkans. France certainly would feel
considerable uneasiness for the Holy Places
which had a special charm for her Catholic
followers. England would also have felt
qualms, seeing that if Russia occupied Persia,
and made it an outpost for attacking India
through Afghanistan she would have con-
siderable trouble in defending her posses-

244 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

sion. However, this scheme did not prove
so effective as Nicholas wished, for it did not
divide the attention of England and France
in the Balkans.

Russia, therefore, perceiving this, followed
the Napoleonic scheme of a direct attack on
India with the help of several Asiatic states.
In 1830 she first appeared in Central Asia
and soon subjugated Persia and induced the
Shah to occupy Herat, 1837. Alarmed at
this, the whole energy of England was
directed towards Afghanistan, and special
preparations, which lasted for a quarter of a
century, were made to defend an attack from
that quarter. The home affairs of England,
together with these alarming schemes of
Russia with regard to India, determined the
Wellington Ministry to advocate non-inter-
ference in Balkan affairs.

Russia also removed French opposition
from the Balkans to Syria by stirring up
quarrels between the Greek and Latin
Churches in Jerusalem. In addition to this,
as I have shown, Nicholas separated Eng-
land and France by his diplomatic tact.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 245

Thus Turkey was left alone with Austria
in the Balkans. Nicholas then, feeling con-
fident of success, at once threatened Con-
stantinople by taking the steps which led to
the Crimean War. He, however, over-
reached himself, and was beaten, as we have
seen, by the allied armies of England, France,
and Turkey.

Immediately after the Crimean War
Russia again stretched out her hands on
Persia as she had done in 1837. Lord
Palmerston, however, closed them by de-
claring war with the same country. " We
are beginning," wrote Lord Palmerston, "to
repel the first openings of trenches against
India by Russia, and whatever difficulties
Ferokh may make about Afghanistan we
may be sure that Russia is his prompt and
secret backer." l

In 1857 the peace of Paris was concluded
by which the Shah renounced all claim over
Herat and Afghanistan. This was a clever
political stroke against a Russian attack on
India.

1 Lord Palmerston's Letter to Lord Clarendon, Feb.

246 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

In 1849 Lord Palmerston wrote :—

" Persia must, I (Lord Palmerston) fear,
now be looked on as an advanced post for
Russia whenever she chooses to make use of
it. She will command it either by over-
powering force or by bribing the state by
prospect of acquisition in Afghanistan."

However, ultimately the same policy was
again resorted to by the Czar to worry Eng-
land in Central Asia. Again the Russians
advanced into Central Asia towards the
Indian frontier and extended their borders
both south and east with great celerity.

But a fresh complication arose extremely
favourable for Russian plots. The Franco-
German War (1870) seemed to be an intro-
duction to the accomplishment of her wishe-
France was miserably defeated, while the
hands of Germany were fully tied up with
Alsace and Lorraine. Two formidable
opponents to Russian arms were therefore
placed hors de combat. England and Austria
were thus the only powers left for the
defence of Constantinople. Austria had
previously been weakened by a war with

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 247

Prussia. It therefore seemed that England
was the only strong supporter of the Otto-
man Empire, and Russia determined to
conquer Ticrkey in Central Asia, so she
conquered and annexed Central Asia as far
as possible until her boundaries reached
Afghanistan and the Chinese Empire in
1874. Being naturally alarmed at these
encroachments, England again was obliged
to devote all her energies to the Indian and
Afghan frontiers, and engaged in the Afghan
War.

Russia now saw that she was in a better
position with regard to Turkey than she had
been before the Crimean War, for although
Turkey was still assisted by Austria, yet the
latter had not fully recovered from the
Prusso-Austrian War. Again France was in
a convulsed state, while England was
harassed with Afghan affairs. A general
alliance of the Mediterranean Powers seemed
therefore impossible.

Russia, therefore, boldly declared war in
1878, and marched to the gates of Constan-
tinople, and eventually concluded the San

248 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Stefano Treaty. This aroused both England
and Austria, and, owing to their warlike
attitude, the Berlin Congress was convened,
and Russia again found her hands withheld
from the Turkish metropolis, although she
succeeded in definitely dividing the attention
of England and Austria in the Balkans by
turning English eyes towards Asia Minor.
Her success was still greater in obtaining
the outlet of the Danube and the arsenal of
Batoum in the Black Sea.

Glancing, then, at the situation generally,
one can perceive that Russia saw that the
English opposition in Asia Minor would
prove formidable, but she did not think that
the Austrian defence of the Balkans would
turn out so dangerous to her hopes. Her
reasons for thinking this were plain. Eng-
land at this crisis was a nation of the first
magnitude, both in strength and wealth, and
if only she (England) had fortified and
occupied Cyprus as she ought to have done,
she would have proved a valuable ally to
Turkey, and would also have commanded the
Sea. Russia saw that the most

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 249

advantageous policy would be to distract
England's attention both from Cyprus and
Asia Minor. To accomplish this she for the
third time started to conquer Turkey through
Central Asia.

In 1878 she concluded a secret agreement
with Persia by which the territory down to
Sarakhs from the Russian frontier was ceded
to her. Her influence in Khorasan was
increasing day by day, and especially so in.
Meshed, owing to the skill and tact of
M. Vlassoff, the Russian Consul-General in
that district. India was again threatened by
her, and Herat approached. Her boundaries
were extended into the Chinese dominions,
and great uneasiness was caused in England
concerning the boundary question of the
Oxus.

The most effective and important step,
however, taken by Russia for the accomplish-
ment of her schemes, was the construction of
the Caspian-Samarcand Railway. It was
started in 1881 with the primary object of
facilitating the war operations of General
Skobeloff for the reduction of the Tekkes.

250 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Lord Hartington called General Annenkoff,
the promoter of the railway, " a foolish
fellow." However, Samarcand was reached in
1885, during the time that an Anglo-Russian
war was threatening about the Murghab
question. Thus a general military l com-
munication of Russia with Asia was estab-
lished. She had three ways of sending
troops and materials in the direction of the
eastern shores of the Caspian : —

(i) From St. Petersburg to Saratoff on

1 "Russia is divided into fifteen military districts,
which comprise also Finland, Siberia, the Caucasus, the
Trans-Caspian region, and Turkestan. The entire Russian
effective force, including officers, artillery, engineers, train,
&c., consists of —

Regular army 1,766,278

Cossack troops ... ... ... 145,325

Irregular troops 6>33i

Total 1,917,934

By adding to. these figures, the effective troops not
levied in time of peace, say 100,000 men, we reach
an effective of 2,000,000 for the war footing. The
Russian militia, which may be called out in times of war,
amounts to 3,000,000 men" Harper s Magazine,
January, 1890), "The Russian Army" by a Russian
General.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 251

the Volga, via Moscow, by railway, from
there to Astrakhan by steamboat on the
river, and from the latter place to Krau-
saovodsk or Uzan Ada.

(2) From St. Petersburg to Voladis
Caucase per railway, from thence to Tiflis by
post road (an eighteen hours' journey), from
Tiflis to Baku by railway, and from there to
Uzan Ada.

(3.) From Odessa or the Crimea to Poti
on the eastern Black Sea coast by steam, from
Poti to Baku, and from there to Uzan Ada.

The water traffic across the Caspian, from
its differents ports is carried on by fifteen
ships of the Caucasus and Mercury Company.
They are in receipt of a large annual subsidy
from the state for the conveyance of mails
and troops, and also for the use of their boats
for transport in case of war. One of these
fifteen steamers sails from Baku to Uzan
Ada twice a week.1

The Trans-Caucasian Railway starts from
the latter place, running east and afterwards
north-east to Merv. From there it proceeds
\ The Times.

252 ' JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

in the same direction, crossing the Oxus,
passing Bokhara, and eventually terminates at
Samarcand — a distance altogether of about
nine hundred miles.

The work of laying the rails was done by
two battalions of Russian soldiers (five
hundred each) and also by five thousand
native labourers, whose wage was threepence
a day. Wages have since been increased to
sixpence a day. From the amount expended
in labour we can see that the railway
expense did not prove inordinately dear, viz.,
30,000,000 roubles, including also the cost of
the Siberian Railway, especially as the Russian
estimate at first was 60,000,000 roubles. The
average rate of laying the rails was exceed-
ingly rapid, viz., four or five miles a day.

There are now one hundred and four
locomotives and one thousand two hundred
wagons, fifteen new locomotives have lately
been ordered, six new passenger wagons, and
eighty cistern cars. A commission has
recently reported in favour of a further grant
to General Annenkoff of 8,000,000 roubles.1
1 The Times.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 253

This line has opened a wide field for
trade with Central Asia. The traffic in
1888 alone was about ,£3,000,000, and
General Annenkoff announced that the net
profit of the railway in 1888 amounted to
about ,£80,000, that 2,000,000 pods of cotton
had been conveyed by it during the same
year, and that in 1889 a total of 4,000,000
pods was anticipated.1

Viewing from a political and strategical
point of view this railway has been an
even more important factor. The northern
frontier of Persia by its means has been
placed completely at the mercy of Russia,
and by it she was enabled to consolidate her
new Asiatic territories which she had annexed
and conquered, Russian troops were able to
be transported- to the Afghan frontier at a
very short notice from all parts of Russia.

Without doubt the construction of the
Trans-Caspian Railway and its threatening
results have proved of immense value
for the success of Russia. By its means
England was induced to turn her attention
1 The Times.

254 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

from Asia Minor to Indian affairs. This
resulted in embroiling England with the
second Afghan War, compelled her to appoint
a boundary commission, and plunged her into
the third Burmese War. All these catas-
trophes compelled her to neglect her Anglo-
Turkish Convention promises — a result aimed
at by her Russian friends (?)

Even in Persia English influence is at a
discount, and proportionately Russian in-
fluence is rising. The appointment of Sir
H. D. Wolff, a clever diplomatist, to the
Teheran Court, and the brilliant reception
accorded to the Shah during his recent visit
by the English, were too late to do any good.
It may do good, and it may not.

Let us now see what effect upon Austria
the Russo-Asiatic policy had.

Firstly, Austria had been left alone to cope
with Russia in the Balkans, and she was
practicably left to defend the Ottoman
Empire. France and Germany were practic-
ably disarmed, and were unable materially to
assist Turkey against Russia. England, as
we have seen before, was occupied elsewhere,

THE EASTERN QUESTION, 255

and had practically deserted Asia Minor,
although this might be altered if only she
would station troops at Cyprus or somewhere
near at hand. Austria did not wish for a
naval alliance only, which she considered
practically useless in event of war, but she
wanted a complete alliance. An alliance
between the two Powers failed at the Berlin
Congress, and also in October, 1886.

Thus Russia obtained her desires in
dividing the two Powers in Europe and Asia,
and prevented a general alliance by threaten-
ing Central Asia.

Certainly Austria had performed her
Balkan duty well, although she was clearly
overweighted, and the result was internal
exhaustion, financial difficulties, social dis-
content, the result of pecuniary troubles.1

1 " A disastrous bankruptcy was the result of the wars
which marked the beginning of the century, and the
crash of 1873 caused most serious loss both to state and
individuals. The stock exchange of Vienna is one of
those where speculation is not rife. The Budget of 1888
for Austria gave ^41,335,000 as the amount of revenue,
and ^"48,030,000 as that of expenditure, and the public
debt as ^"83,091,060. For Hungary, the revenue' was
in 1887 ^28,937,630, and the expenditure ^£29,547,853.

256 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Of all the great European cities, the
socialists are at the present moment strongest
in Vienna. An able political writer of the
present day has said: ''The Dualism of the
Monarchy (Austria- Hungary) is very nearly
dead, and if Austria is to exist at all she
must rapidly become tripartite, and ultimately
resolve herself into a somewhat loose con-
federation." 1

These domestic difficulties have caused her
to gradually lose her influence in the Balkans,
and the abdication of King Milan of Servia
has proved a still more serious blow to her
power in that quarter.

It seems to me impolitic for Russia to go
to war with the five million Magyars. It
would be better to influence Austria so as to
increase her internal discords and foster them
by skilful diplomacy if she wished to attain
her objects. For instance, to demonstrate
against the accession of Prince Ferdinand to

The public debt for the whole of the Empire is twenty-
seven millions of florins" Leger's " History of Austro-
Hungary" (translated by Mrs. B. Hill), p. 633.

'"The Present Condition of European Politics,"
p. 203.

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 257

the Bulgarian throne, to oppose the Bulgarian
loans, and give pecuniary help herself to
immigrants from Montenegro to Servia.

The consequence would be that Austria
could not possibly remain peaceful when
inhabited by bitter anti-Russian Magyars.
She would have to make war preparations
and spend money, and would thus increase
her financial difficulties, and the result would
be the breaking down of the Dual Monarchy,
" the personal union of fifty-six states," a
mixture of races, religions, and tongues.

A strong and compact confederation can
only be obtained by sound financial dealings.
Austria once broken down by internal dis-
cord, then Constantinople and the Balkans
would be Russian possessions.

If Russia is desirous of accomplishing her
ends, her great aim must be to prevent any
of the great Powers from making an alliance
with Austria. Owing to the Franco-Russian
alliance, Russia is quite powerful enough to
hinder any effective alliance with Germany.

With regard to an alliance with England,
there is one strong barrier which, if kept up,

258 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

will always prevent such a coalition, viz., the
Trans-Caspian Railway.

The following ideas would still further
separate the two Powers : —

(1) The extension of the railway from
Samarcand to Kokan, because from Kokan
Russia can threaten to push on her border
to Eastern Turkestan, and move southward
to Tibet, and from there will be able to
threaten the territory of Cashmere, which
are the boundaries at present unsettled.

(2) An extension of railway from Samar-
cand to Tashkend, which is contemplated,
and when completed will connect Siberia
from a military point of view. It can be
also taken north-west, along the north-
eastern shore of the Aral Sea, and may be
connected with the parent line at Orenburg,
and connected with Russia and Central Asia
for military purposes.

(3) To construct a line from Mertvi, or
Dead Bay, on the Caspian, to the western
shore of the Sea of Aral. This would prove
another quick mode of transit, particularly
from St. Petersburg and Moscow to Kilif,

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 259

on the Oxus, and also to Samarcand. At
present steamers ply on the Amu Daria
from the Aral Sea southwards as far as
Kilif on the northern boundary of Afghanis-
tan.

These steamers are 20 feet broad, 150
feet long, and are of 5oo-horse power, travel-
ling 1 6 miles an hour, and are capable of
conveying 300 soldiers arid 20 officers.

(4) To throw off a branch line from
Bokhara to Kilif, and from there to Balkh.

(5) Two branch lines (a) from Merv to
Herat, via Penjdeh ; (b) from Merv to
Sarakhs, via Chacha, and still further to
Kuhsan, in the direction of Herat.

(6) By entering the Persian dominion
from the present northern boundary to
occupy Meshed, proceeding thence to Kuhsan
to meet the line from Sarakhs.

In consequence of the approaching depar-
ture for Persia of M. de Buelzoff, the newly-
appointed minister at Teheran, most of the
Russian newspapers warmly advocated the
immediate construction of a line from the
northern part of Persia.

26o JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

(7) An extension of railway from Meshed
through Khorasan and Serstan southwards
as far as Nasirabad, and eventually to get a
port on the Persian Gulf or Indian Ocean.

Once let Russia get the long-wished-for
outlet in the southern seas, and then she
will be still more able to strike another
blow against English influence. There is
not the least doubt that Persian affairs will
occupy the attention of England for some
years to come.

All these extensions will, if carried out,
mean a Russian invasion all along the
Hindostan frontier, and thus would further
indirectly her European aspiration.

On the other hand, looking from an Eng-
lish point of view, we can suggest a scheme
of frustration by means of sound and politic
administration.

For instance, at present large railways
start from Calcutta, Madras, and Bombay,
traversing Delhi and Lahore, terminating
at Peshawar ; from Lahore the line runs to
Kurrachee, on the Arabian Sea, and a
branch line goes north-west from Sakkar

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 261

to Pishin, via Quetta. Thus we see the
English defence of her Indian frontier is
fairly well looked after, although a "for-
ward" policy of railway construction in
India may, and no doubt will, be advan-
tageous to English defence and commerce.

England is certainly heavily handicapped
owing to the want of a short and safe com-
munication with India. The Suez Canal is
not safe enough, both the Canadian Railway
and the Cape of Good Hope routes are long,
therefore it is a matter of great moment
that she should have a safe and quick route
by which she might despatch troops and
materials with celerity.

The following route, if carried out, would
prove of the very greatest advantage to
England. First, the occupation of the
Karrack Island in the Persian Gulf, which
is in every respect suitable for a military
station, having good water and being healthy.
It is with truth often termed the key of the
Persian Gulf.

Secondly, a railway should be constructed
from Scandarum, on the Mediterranean, to

262 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

Bussorah, on the Persian Gulf, through the
Euphrates Valley — a saving of from seven
hundred to one thousand miles, and of
nearly four days.

If an Afghan war arose, troops could be
landed at Kurrachee instead of Bombay,
and time would be gained and the monsoon
also avoided. Troops could be forwarded
at very short notice from Malta to Pishin
and Peshawar, with almost equal speed to
that with which Russia can collect troops in
Central Asia.

If once opened, the trade of Central Asia,
India, and China would find its way by this
route, and open out Persian and Indian
relations with Europe as much as the Suez
Canal * did after its opening ; Persia would

1 "A few years ago a swift voyage from England to
Calcutta, via the Cape of Good Hope, was from a
hundred and ten to a hundred and twenty days. Now
steamers by way of the Canal make the same voyage in
about thirty days. Here, then, is a diminution of 75 per
cent, on the enormous stocks of goods continually re.-
quired to be held unused, involving continued risk of
depreciation, loss of interest, cost of insurance, to meet
the requirements of mere transit " (S. A. Wells' " Prac-
tical Economics," p. 236).

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 263

be considerably strengthened. It would
also, together with the military occupation
of Karrack and Cyprus (if done properly),
give a guarantee to both India and Persia
against Russian attacks.

The distance from Scandarum to Bussorah
is only seven hundred miles, and would be
safe against attacks, being protected by the
double rivers, the Euphrates and Tigris, for
most of its course. Its cost would be
estimated at .£9,000,000, which might easily
be raised in the London market. Also if
the Mudinia Aksu line be extended to Scan-
darum, via Kiniah or the Scutari- 1 smid line
to Aleppo, through Angora, Kaisariyeh, and
Abbiston, other beneficial effects may be
produced. In the latter case it amounts,
and is practically similar, to an extension
of the Eastern Railway to the Persian
Gulf, which starts from Paris, and passes
Vienna, Belgrade, Sophia, Adrianople, ter-
minating at Constantinople. So a direct
land route could be obtained from Bussorah
to Calais or Rotterdam if a bridge was
constructed over the Bosphorus.

264 JAPAN AND THE PACIFIC.

As I have already shown in chapter VIII.,
the construction of the Euphrates Railway
would avoid a Franco-English conflict of
interests in Egypt to a certain extent, and
a dual control would be established ; thus a
strong and effective alliance would ensue,
caused by mutual interests, and England
would be able thereby to withdraw her
troops from Egypt, and devote them to the
defence of Asia Minor. Thus a firm alliance
between England and Turkey would follow,
and would prevent a Mahommedhan rebellion
in India against England, the Sultan being
looked upon as the Mahommedhan Pope.

England will also be able to call Indian
troops to her assistance in Asia Minor. It
will follow that as a larger number of troops
and a better communication is obtained in
Asia Minor, Austria would be quite willing
to ally herself with England, instead of
refusing, as she had done twice before, the
English power at sea being only of little
use. England and Austria therefore can
not only jointly support Turkey, but also
England can " come to the assistance of

THE EASTERN QUESTION. 265

Austria in Europe, and Austria make common
cause with England in the event of Turkey
being attacked in Asia Minor."

Having a French, Austrian, and Turkish
alliance, England can send her home troops
both to India and Asia Minor by the Eastern
Railway in a very short space of time, and
can strengthen both countries and also help
in the Balkans if required, and a firm and
lasting alliance would be made.

Why cannot Italy join this alliance ? It
is a matter of necessity and advantage, both
geographically and strategically, to do so,
and if an alliance in Southern Europe could
thus be made, the safety of the Balkans,
Asia Minor, Persia, and Afghanistan might
be assured, even if Germany joined Russia,
and the lofty hopes of Russia would be
dashed to the ground.

THE END.

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Jntrincrs from Tail Notes and FaPers on Prison Matters.
orangs i jail. By the Rev } w HoRSLEYj M At>

Oxon., late (and last) Chaplain of H.M. Prison, Clerkenwell.
Second edition. Crown 8vo., cloth, 35. 6d.

Literary Landmarks of London. H

Fourth, revised, and cheaper edition. Crown 8vo.,
Illustrated cover, 2s. 6d. ; cloth, 33. 6d.

English aS She is Taught. Genuine Answers to
O o Examination Questions

in our Public Schools. With a Commentary by MARK
TWAIN. Demy i6mo., cloth, 2s. ; parchment, is.
MARK TWAIN says : " A darling literary curiosity. . . . This little book ought
to set forty millions of people to thinking."

Proverbs, Maxims and Phrases of all Ages.

Classified subjectively, and arranged alphabetically. By
ROBERT CHRISTY. 2 vols., half cloth, gilt tops, 2 is.

Q0ooft0 for

addy Jake, the Runaway ;

after Dark. By "UNCLE REMUS" (Joel Chandler
Harris). Many Illustrations. Medium 410., cloth, gilt
edges, 6s. (Uniform with " The Brownies.")

When Mother was Little. Bys p YORKE

teen r nil-page Illustra-
tions by HENRY J. FORD. Small square 8vo., cloth, 35. 6d.

Blltterfl V • ^ts Nature, Development, and Attributes.
J By JOHN STUTTARD. Dedicated to Sir
John Lubbock, Bart. Illustrated. Fscap. 8vo., limp cloth, is.

Fables for Little Readers : A

THUR BROOKFIELD. Twenty-five Illustrations by HENRY
J. FORD. Small 410., cloth, 35. 6d.

' ' In their present shape, the fables should be very popular among the inmates of
the nursery, more particularly as they are illustrated with nearly thirty clever
drawings by Henry Ford, which are beautifully printed in monochrome."

Scottish Leader.

A Home Story. By FANNIE BELL IRVING. Illus-
trated by F. T. MERRILL. Crown 8vo., cloth, 55.

' ' The six main characters are drawn carefully, and well differentiated. The book
has many a touch of simple pathos, and many a passage of light-hearted high
spirits. " — Scotsman.

The Brownies : Their Book. ^ PALM,ER fc°x-

Reprinted from

St. Nicholas, with many new Poems and Pictures.
Third and Cheaper Edition. Medium 4to., cloth, gilt
edges, 6s.

New Fairy Tales from Brentano.

by KATE FREILIGRATH KROEKER, and Pictured by F.
CARRUTHERS GOULD. Eight Full-page Coloured Illustra-
tions. Square 8vo., illustrated, paper boards, cloth back,
55. ; cloth, gilt edges, 6s.
" A really charming collection of stories."— Pall Mall Gazette.

Fairy Tales from Brentano.

KROEKER. Illustrated by F. CARRUTHERS GOULD. Popular
Edition. Sq. imp. i6mo., 33. 6d.

" An admirable translator in Madame Kroeker, and an inimitable illustrator in
Mr. Carruthers Gould."— Truth.

In the Time nf Roses • A Tale of Two Summers-

ivoses . Told and Illustrated by

FLORENCE and EDITH SCANNELL, Author and Artist of
" Sylvia's Daughters." Thirty-two Full-page and other
Illustrations. Sq. imp. i6mo., cloth, 53.

4< A very charming story." — Scotsman.
" A delightful story."— Punch.

Prinre Peerless • A Fairy-Folk Story-Book. By the

5 * Hon. MARGARET COLLIER (Madame

Galletti di Cadilhac), Author of " Our Home by the

Adriatic." Illustrated by the Hon. JOHN COLLIER. Sq.

imp. i6mo., cloth, 55.

" Delightful in style and fancy." — Scotsman.

" A volume of charming stories/' — Saturday Review.

When I was a Child ; °r> Left Bf in,d- B>: ^N°A

VILLARI, Author of " On

Tuscan Hills," &c. Illustrated. Square 8vo., cloth, gilt
edges, 33. 6d.
"A finer girl's book could not be had.'' — Scotsman.

The Prince of the Hundred Soups :

A Puppet Show in Narrative. Edited, with a Preface, by
VERNON LEE. Illustrated. Cheaper edition. Square 8vo.,
cloth, 33. 6d.

"There is more humour in the volume than in half-a-dozen ordinary panto-
mimes.''— Spectator.

Rirrl'c KT^ct- and other Sermons for Children of all
** CbL> Ages. By the Rev. SAMUEL Cox, D.D.,
Author of " Expositions," &c. Cheap and Popular Edition.
Imp. i6mo., cloth, 35. 6d.

" These beautiful discourses were addressed to children of all ages, and must
have found an echo in the hearts of many youthful listeners." — Sf. James's Gazette.

Spring Blossoms and Summer Fruit ;

or, Sunday Talks for the Children. By the Rev. JOHN
BYLES, of Ealing. Crown 8vo., cloth, zs. 6d.
"They are of simple and instructive character." — Dundee Advertiser.

Arminius Vamb£rv • His Life and Adventures-

V dlliuery * Written by Himself. With
Introductory Chapter dedicated to the Boys of England.
Portrait and Seventeen Illustrations. Crown 8vo., 55.

" We welcome it as one of the best books of travel that our boys could have
possibly placed in their hands." — Schoolmaster.

' Own Stories B7 AscoTT R- HopE» Author of
i^wn stories. (l Stories of Young Adventurers>»

" Stories out of School Time," &c. Eight Illustrations.
Crown 8vo., cloth, 53.

" This is a really admirable selection of genuine narrative and history, treated
with discretion and skill by the author. Mr. Hope has not gathered his stores
from the highway, but has explored far afield in less-beaten tracts, as may be seen in
his ' Adventures of a Ship-boy' and 'A Smith among Savages.' "—Saturday Review.

The Adventures of Robinson Crusoe.

Newly Edited after the Original Editions. Nineteen Illus-
trations. Large crown 8vo., cloth extra, 53.

Twn T i tl-1 e rirmfprlprsl-pQ By THOMAS NELSON

j^itue ^onreaerates. PAGE With eight full.

page illustrations by E. W. KEMBLE and A. C. REDWOOD.
Square 8vo., cloth, 6s.
"A charming story." — American Traveller.

THE CAMEO SERIES.

Half-bound, paper boards, price 33. 6d. each. Fine Edition, bound in parchment,

printed on Japan paper, numbered and signed, 30 copies only printed,
25 being for sale; terms on application from Booksellers or the Publisher.

The Lady from the Sea.

Trans-
Author's

permission, from the Norwegian by ELEANOR MARX AVELING.
With a Critical Introduction by EDMUND GOSSE. Portrait
of the Author and Autograph.

A London Plane-Tree, and Other Poems.

By the late AMY LEVY, Author of " The Romance of a
Shop," " Reuben Sachs," &c. Illustrated by J. BERNARD
PARTRIDGE.

Wordsworth's Grave and Other Poems.

By WILLIAM WATSON, Author of " The Prince's Quest,"
& Frontispiece.

Sakuntala; or. The Fatal Ring.

KALIDASA. Translated by Sir WILLIAM JONES, and Edited,
with an Introduction, by T. W. RHYS DAVIDS, Ph.D., LL.D.

TheVolumes average about 300 pp., small cr. 8vo., limp cloth, price 2s. each.

Gladys rane. By T> WEMyss REID. Fifth Edition.
Mrs. Keith's Crime. By Mrs w K> CL,FFORD.
Concerning Oliver Knox. ByaCoLMOR,

Mw Rsvle's Romance • Or, An American Heiress

MISS myie , ±s>o lance , in EuropCt By W.FRASE*

RAE.

Isaac filler's Money. By Mr, ANDREW DEAN,
Chronicles of a Health Resort. By A H£RD£R

LONDON: T. FISHER UNWIN, PATERNOSTER SQUARE, E.G.

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