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FACULTY  WORKING 
PAPER  NO.  945 


Megatrends  In  Consumer  fytarketing 
Jagdish  N.  Sheth 


Gollaae  of  Ccmmercs  and  Business  Administration 
Bureau  of  Economic  ana  Sissinttss  Research 
University  of  liiincis.  Urbana-Champaign 


BEBR 


FACULTY  WORKING  PAPER  NO.  945 
College  of  Commerce  and  Business  Administration 
University  of  Illinois  at  Urbana-Champaign 
April  1983 


Megatrends  in  Consumer  Marketing 


Jagdish  N.  Sheth,  Professor 
Department  of  Business  Administration 


I 
Megatrends  in  Consumer  Marketing 

Jagdish  N.  Sheth 

Abstract 


This  paper  identifies  seven  marketing  megatrends  as  a  consequence 
of  changing  demographic  characteristics  and  technological  advancements. 
They  are:   dual  mass  consumption  (affluent  and  average);  personalized 
consumption;  role  blurring  for  self  sufficiency;  time-place  universality; 
dominance  of  wants  over  needs;  pluralistic  specialty  markets;  and  one 
stop  hassle  free  shopping. 

The  paper  also  recommends  several  strategies  to  corporations  for 
survival  and  growth  in  the  turbulent  times.   These  include  focus  on 
the  market,  controlling  costs,  broadening  the  horizon,  decentralization 
of  the  company,  and  pluralistic  ways  of  doing  business. 


MEGATRENDS  IN  CONSUMER  MARKETING 

Jagdish  N.  Sheth 
University  of  Illinois 

INTRODUCTION 


A  number  of  fundamental  and  mostly  irreversible  demographic  as  well 
as  technological  changes  are  taking  place  right  in  front  of  our  eyes. 
Unfortunately,  many  marketing  practitioners  don't  see  them  even  though 
they  are  living  through  them  partly  because  these  changes  are 
evolutionary  rather  than  revolutionary  and  partly  because  of  their 
preoccupation  with  tactical  operations,  annual  budget  battles  and 
continuous  reorganizations. 

At  the  same  time,  the  emerging  demographic  and  technological 
changes  are  as  dramatic  and  significant  as  the  postwar  baby  boom  and 
move  to  the  suburbs  which  took  place  in  the  decades  of  the  forties  and 
the  fifties.   One  can  almost  directly  attribute  failures  of  basically 
good  companies  such  as  W.  T.  Grant  and  A  &  P  to  blantant  neglect  of 
market  changes.   Similarly,  decline  in  sales  of  such  good  basic  products 
as  coffee,  electric  iron  and  family  magazines  can  also  be  directly 
attributed  to  changes  in  the  market  place.   In  my  opinion,  many  companies 
and  industries  today  are  facing  similar  challenges  created  by  the  emerging 
demographic  and  technological  changes. 

Accordingly,  the  purpose  of  this  paper  is  to  examine  fundamental 
changes  in  consumer  values  and  buying  behavior  as  a  consequence  of 
demographic  changes  and  technological  innovations.   First,  we  will 


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summarize  the  demographic  and  technological  forecasts  and  their  funda- 
mental impacts  on  consumer  behavior.   Second  we  will  develop  a  list  of 
marketing  megatrends  which  are  likely  to  be  the  driving  forces  in 
consumer  marketing.   Finally,  we  will  suggest  strategies  of  survival 
for  companies  and  industries  in  light  of  these  megatrends. 

DEMOGRAPHIC  AND  LIFE  STYLE  CHANGES 

Demographic  changes  can  be  summarized  in  terms  of  three  fundamental 
changes : 

1.   Maturing  of  America.   There  is  almost  a  unanimous  consensus  among 
all  the  demographers  that  America  is  clearly  shifting  from  a  nation  of 
young  adults  to  a  nation  of  mature  adults.   For  example,  the  median  age 
in  1980  was  30  years  and  it  is  expected  to  be  42  years  by  the  year  2050. 
Similarly,  we  are  witnessing  the  present  migration  from  the  baby  boom  to 
the  baby  bust  era.   This  is  indicated  by  the  replacement  of  18  to  34  age 
segment  as  the  biggest  buying  segment  by  the  30  to  40  age  segment  in  the 
population. 

This  aging  of  America  is  directly  attributed  to  the  ever  increasing 
life  expectancy  (69  years  in  1960  to  74  years  in  1980  and  nearly  80  years 
in  2000)  as  well  as  ever  declining  fertility  rate  (3.8  children  in  1960 
down  to  1.8  children  in  1980  and  stabilizing  at  1.7  children  by  the  year 
2000) .   It  is  expected  to  generate  the  largest  growth  in  the  30  to  45  age 
segment  and  the  second  largest  growth  in  the  65  and  above  age  segment. 

2t   Dual-Income  Households..   A  second  major  change  is  the  emergence  of 
dual  income  households  in  which  both  husband  and  wife  are  wage  earners. 


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For  example,  more  than  50  percent  of  women  are  now  in  the  work,  force. 
This  has  resulted  in  redefinition  of  the  family  roles  of  bread  winners 
and  homemakers. 

It  is  anticipated  that  most  American  families  will  be  distributed 
on  a  bimodal  basis  on  the  income  continuum.   Those  who  believe  in  the 
traditional  family  roles  of  husband  as  the  bread  winner  and  wife  as 
the  homemaker  are  likely  to  experience  a  sharp  decline  in  their  real 
income  whereas  those  who  adopt  the  more  contemporary  roles  of 
dual  income  earners  will  experience  a  sharp  increase  in  their  real 
income.   In  short,  it  is  very  likely  that  there  will  be  a  decline  of 
the  middle  class  as  we  know  today.   In  its  place,  we  are  likely  to 
evolve  a  two  class  society  -  the  Affluent  and  the  Average. 

3.   Nontraditional  HouseholdSo   A  third  major  demographic  shift  is  the 

sharp  increase  in  nonfamily  households  such  as  singles  (single  adult), 

mingles  (multiple  adults  of  same  sex) ,  and  single  parent  (divorced  or 

separated  family)  households.   For  example,  22  percent  of  all 

househlds  were  single  adult  in  1980,  and  they  are  expected  to  increase  sharply 

by  the  year  2000.   It  would  appear  that  more  adults  prefer  to  live  alone, 

or  establish  households  on  the  basis  of  friendship  instead  of  kinshipo 

In  the  process,  the  average  size  of  the  household  is  expected  to  decline 

sharply  (from  3.6  in  1960  to  2.8  in  1980  down  to  1.8  in  year  2000).   In 

short,  households  will  become  more  and  more  atomistic. 

As  a  consequence  of  these  three  major  demographic  changes,  it  is 
my  belief  that  we  will  experience  the  following  changes  in  household 
life  styles  and  values. 


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1.  Individualistic  life  styles.   As  more  and  more  adults  live  alone 
and/or  establish  households  on  a  friendship  rather  than  kinship  basis, 
it  is  inevitable  that  people  will  be  able  to  manifest  life  styles 
which  are  not  constrained  by  the  family  norms  and  desires  of  other 
members  of  the  family.   In  the  process,  household  consumption 
activities  are  likely  to  be  reshaped  from  household  to  per  capita 
basis.   In  short,  more  and  more  consumption  will  be  personalized 

to  each  individual. 

Even  in  the  traditional  family  households,  one  would  expect 
increase  in  individualistic  life  styles  as  career  or  work  related 
schedules  generate  more  conflicts  in  getting  together  at  the  same 
time.   For  example,  when  both  husband  and  wife  are  professional 
workers,  it  is  very  likely  that  business  obligations  as  well  as 
travel  away  from  home  will  diminish  the  chances  of  eating  dinner 
together. 

2.  Adult-Oriented  Life  Styles.   Maturing  age  of  the  population, 
emergence  of  single  adult  households  as  well  as  formation  of 
households  on  a  friendship  basis  all  indicate  decline  of  children's 
presence  in  the  household,.   It  is  expected  that  this  should  result 
in  an  increase  of  adult  oriented  life  style,  both  at  home  and  away 
from  home  situations.   For  example,  more  and  more  adult  programming 
is  patronized  at  home  through  network  as  well  as  cable  television. 
Time  Driven  Life  Styles.   As  the  population  matures  to  the  prime  age, 
it  has  by  definition  more  activities  to  perform  but  within  the  same 
time  limit.   This  is  because  the  activity  curve  over  the  life  cycle 
from  birth  to  death  tends  to  peak  at  the  middle  years.   At  the  same 


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time,  we  are  an  affluent  nation  both  in  terms  of  average  annual 
income  and  personal  wealth.   It  is,  therefore,  inevitable  that 
America  will  become  a  nation  of  time  poor,  money  rich  households. 
In  short,  more  and  more  people  will  substitute  time  as  the  scarce 
resource  in  place  of  money,  resulting  in  establishing  priorities 
for  products  and  services  based  on  how  much  time  they  will  save 
rather  than  how  much  money  they  will  cost.   For  example,  more  and 
more  people  tend  to  call  by  long  distance  phone  rather  than  write 
letters.   Similarly,  they  travel  by  air  rather  than  by  car  for  long 
haul  distances* 

TECHNOLOGICAL  CHANGES  AND  BUSINESS  FUNCTIONS 

Along  with  the  demographic  changes,  there  are  also  significant 
technological  changes  taking  place  which  impact  on  the  supply  function. 

The  primary  technological  change  is  the  emergence  of  the  electronics 
age  of  mankind.   It  is  a  direct  substitute  for  the  electromechanical 
technologies  which  began  with  the  Industrial  Revolution.   It  is  also 
having  an  impact  on  the  chemical  technologies  in  many  fields  such  as 
food  processing,  pharmaceuticals  and  photography. 

Unlike  the  previous  technologies  identified  with  the  industrial  era 
(mechanical,  electromechanical  and  chemical),  the  electronics  technology 
seems  to  possess  several  unique  features  which  all  impact  on  the  business 
functions. 
Low  Entry-Exit  3arriers 

First,  it  is  a  relatively  low  capital  technology.   Therefore,  practically 
anyone  with  an  invention  or  expertise  can  think  of  starting  his  or  her  own 


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businesSo   This  is  clearly  manifested  by  the  emergence  of  the  Sillicon 
Valley  Industry  in  California  as  well  as  numerous  high  technology 
industrial  parks  in  and  around  major  research  universities.   In  other 
words,  the  electronics  technology  has  immensely  lowered  the  barriers 
of  entry  and  exit  which  will  foster  greater  competition  in  all  industries. 
Global  Perspective 

Second,  the  electronics  technology  can  be  located  in  virtually  any 
location.   It  requires  much  less  dependence  on  such  natural  resources  as 
water,  air,  and  energy.   All  it  needs  is  skilled  labor  and  supply  of 
manmade  resources „   Therefore,  it  is  a  worldwide  technology  rather  than 
limited  to  those  geographical  areas  which  have  unique  natural  resources. 
This  also  means  that  a  company  must  take  a  global  perspective  with  respect 
to  manufacturing  and  distribution  of  its  products  and  services. 
Functional  Integration 

Third,  the  electronics  technology  seems  to  have  the  capability  of 
improving  productivity  (output  to  input  ratio)  of  business  functions 
considerably  greater  than  any  previous  technology.   By  integrating 
many  separate  and  specialized  functions  such  as  orders,  shipping, 
billing  and  collection  as  well  as  requiring  lower  capitalization,  it 
tends  to  generate  sharper  declining  experience  curves  in  manufacturing 
and  marketing  of  products  and  services  resulting  in  lower  unit  costs. 
Enhanced  Quality  at  Lower  Cost 

Fourth,  it  appears  that  the  electronics  technology  is  unprecedented 
in  its  capability  to  offer  a  highly  reliable  maintance-free  product  or 
service  as  compared  to  the  electromechanical  and  even  the  chemical 
technologies.   For  example,  teoday's  electronic  calculators  and  watches 
are  not  only  cheaper  but  infinitely  more  reliable  in  their  functionalities 


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than  their  counterpart  eLectromechnaical  products.   Similarly,  you  can 
today  buy  an  electronic  telephone  wibch  will  give  a  more  reliable  dial 
tone  and  perform  other  telecommunication  functions  at  far  lower  costs 
than  its  counterpart  electromechanical  telephones „ 

The  enhanced  quality  at  a  lower  unit  cost  is  not  limited  to  the 
electronics  products  themselves.   It  appears  that  it  pervades  all  business 
functions.   For  example,  computer  aided  design  (CAD)  and  computer  aided 
manufacturing  (CAM)  are  enabling  suppliers  to  offer  greater  variety  of 
nonelectronic  products  at  lower  costs.   Similarly,  the  inventory  costs 
and  shipping  time  are  dramatically  reduced  with  the  use  of  computerized 
physical  distribution  in  most  consumer  goods  industries.   Even  professional 
services  such  as  banking,  accounting,  legal  and  consulting  services 
are  upgraded  in  their  accuracy,  timeliness  and  reliability  with  the 
computerized  work  methods.   Indeed,  it  is  no  exaggeration  to  state  that 
the  microprocessors  are  performing  routine  business  functions  far  more 
reliably  and  at  considerably  lower  costs  than  human  beings. 

Finally,  the  electronics  technology  has  made  it  economical  to 
utilize  alternative  methods  of  selling  and  promotions  targeted  at 
highly  specialized  and  fragmented  segments  of  the  market.   For  example, 
it  is  possible  to  target  and  customize  direct  marketing  efforts  at  the 
individual  consumer  level  with  computerized  mailings.   Similarly,  today 
it  is  possible  to  explore  telepromotions  as  alternatives  to  mass  advertising, 
and  telemarketing  as  alternative  to  personal  selling. 

In  my  opinion,  these  four  attributes  of  the  electronics  technology 
(low  barriers,  global  perspectives,  functional  integration  and  higher 


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quality  at  lower  cost)  are  also  likely  to  bring  about  the  following 
supply-driven  changes  in  the  market  place, 

1 .  Responsive  to  Market  Changes 

With  the  integration  of  information  functions  such  as  storage, 
processing  and  transport  functions,  the  elctronics  technology  has 
significantly  reduced  the  time  and  space  distances  in  market  transactions 
between  the  buyers  and  the  sellers,,   For  instance,  today  it  is  possible 
to  respond  to  demand  changes  on  a  real  time  basis  if  a  company  has 
computerized  order  processing  and  inventory  management  procedures.   Even 
in  highly  volatile  industries  such  as  fashion  or  emergency  husiness,  it 
has  become  possible  to  reduce  the  time  and  place  gap  between  production 
and  consumption  functions „ 

Consequently,  this  has  encouraged  more  and  more  companies  and 
industries  to  become  market  responsive  and  customer  oriented  rather 
than  driven  by  production  capacity  or  resource  constraints. 

2.  Niching  and  Market  Fragmentation 

Lower  entry  and  exit  barriers  as  well  as  more  cost  efficient 
production  and  marketing  of  smaller  orders  has  enabled  more  and  more 
companies  to  become  market  or  product  specialists.   It  is,  therefore, 
possible  to  engage  in  nitching  strategies  and  still  remain  profitable. 
The  consequence  is  that  the  mass  markets  are  getting  more  and  more 
fragmented.   The  diversity  of  products  and  services  is  rapidly  in- 
creasing in  practically  every  industry  from  fast  food  restaurants 
to  university  education;  and  from  home  appliances  to  fruits  and 
vegetables.   In  the  process,  the  traditional  economic  concepts  of 


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competition  such  as  oligopoly  and  monopolistic  competition  are  becoming 
obsolete  and  replaced  by  new  emerging  realities  of  market  framentation 
and  product  specialization  as  competitive  market  structures. 

3.   Single  Vendor,  One  Stop  Businesses 

The  electronic  technology's  capability  to  integrate  business  functions 
as  well  as  to  provide  enhanced  quality  at  lower  cost  are  likely  to 
encourage  companies  and  industries  to  redefine  their  missions  and  businesses 
so  that  the  customer  does  not  have  to  make  separate  choices  of  suppliers 
and  brand  names  for  related  products  and  services „   For  example,  banks, 
brokerage  houses,  and  insurance  companies  are  all  planning  to  redefine 
themselves  into  financial  services  business.   Similarly,  cable,  television, 
motion  pictures  and  game  computer  industries  are  all  redefining  themselves 
into  entertainment  business,.   Also,  hospitals,  medical  insurance,  and 
physical  fitness  are  all  getting  integrated  into  the  wellness  business. 
Finally,  computer  data  processing,  telecommunication  and  newspapers  and 
television  metworks  are  also  getting  integrated  into  a  single  information 
industry. 

MEGATRENDS  IN  CONSUMER  MARKETING 

The  demand-oriented  demographic  changes  and  the  supply-oriented 
technological  changes  in  consumer  marketing  are  so  dramatic  that  they 
must  be  called  megatrends „   Furthermore,  these  megatrends  in  consumer 
marketing  are  highly  universal  in  their  impact  on  diverse  consumer 
products,  companies  and  industries.   Finally,  these  megatrends  are 
likely  to  persist  well  into  the  21st  century. 

I  have  identified  the  following  seven  megatrends  in  consumer  marketings 


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10   Dual  Class  Mass  Consumption.   With  the  decline  of  the  traditional 
middle  class  as  a  consequence  of  career  oriented,  dual  income  and 
adult-oriented  life  styles,  it  is  my  belief  that  the  single  class  mass 
consumption  society  will  be  more  and  more  replaced  by  a  dual  class  mass 
consumption  society  consisting  of  the  affluent  and  the  average  classes. 
For  the  first  time,  it  will  be  possible  to  offer  high  priced,  premium 
products  and  services  to  a  much  bigger  segment  of  the  total  population 
than  ever  before  possible.   In  other  words,  what  was  within  the  reach 
of  a  handful  of  filthy  rich  people  in  the  society  will  be  within  the 
reach  of  as  much  as  20  to  25  percent  of  the  total  population. 

Consequently,  companies  which  specialize  in  premium  products  and 
services  will  find  that  the  growth  potential  for  their  products  is 
enormous .   At  the  same  time,  they  will  be  able  to  utilize  mass  marketing 
tactics  and  reduce  their  marketing  costs  per  unit  of  transaction. 
Therefore,  these  companies  will  also  have  greater  profit  potential. 
Examples  include  premium  cars,  custom  built  homes,  luxury  products 
such  as  boats  and  satellite  dishes,  as  well  as  home  appliances. 
Furthermore,  the  same  process  is  likely  to  benefit  premium  retailers 
such  as  Dayton-Hudson,  Neimann-Marcus ,  and  others „ 

At  the  same  time,  it  will  become  more  and  more  difficult  to  survive 
for  those  companies  who  offer  mass  market  functional  products  and  services. 
As  the  single  class  mass  consumption  society  partitions  itself  into  a 
dual-class  mass  consumption  society,  it  is  inevitable  that  the  total  market 
share  of  functional  products  will  decline  resulting  in  intense  price 
competition  to  protect  or  increase  market  shares.   It  is  my  expectation  that 
lower  market  shareholders  in  the  mass  markets  will  not  survive  resulting  in 


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market  consolidation,,   This  is  already  evident  in  the  home  appliance 
industry  where  today  only  a  handful  of  manufacturers  are  surviving.   A 
similar  possibility  exists  for  the  automotive  industry  including  the 
aftermarket  for  replacement  tires,  batteries  and  accessories „   For 
example,  a  major  retailer  (J.C,  Penney)  has  recently  announced  that 
they  will  get  out  of  appliances  and  automotive  services  business. 
Even  K-Mart  has  experienced  difficulties  in  its  autocare  program. 
Witness  also  the  packaged  goods  business  at  both  the  manufacturing 
and  the  retail  levels c   Among  grocery  manufacturers  such  as  Pillsbury, 
General  Foods,  General  Mills,  Nabisco,  Procter  &  Gamble  and  many  others, 
one  observes  a  good  deal  of  jockeying  for  position  by  mergers  and 
acquisition  as  veil  as  abandoning  major  product  lines  in  order  to 
consolidate  their  positions  of  market  strength„   The  same  reality  is 
emerging  in  the  retail  food  chains  such  as  A  &  P,  Jewel,  Kroger, 
Safeway  and  particularly  many  regional  chains  such  as  IGA. 

2.   Personalized  Per  Capita  Consumption   With  the  emergence  of  non- 
traditional  households  as  well  as  dual  income  career  oriented  life 
styles,  it  is  inevitable  that  most  products  and  services  will  be  demanded 
and  consumed  at  a  per  capita  level  rather  than   shared  at  the  household 
level.   Furthermore,  as  we  continue  to  increase  living  standards,  it 
will  become  more  and  more  possible  to  afford  products  and  services  which 
are  personalized  rather  than  standardized. 

In  particular,  per  capita  consumption  is  likely  to  grow  for  consumer 
durables,  professional  and  personal  services,  leisure,  and  packaged  foods 
industries.   It  is  my  belief  that  the  concept  of  a  family  car  is  likely  to 


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give  way  to  a  personal  car.   Therefore,  the  demand  for  station  wagons 
should  decline  and  demand  for  personal  cars  should  increase  over  time.   In 
other  words,  the  issue  facing  the  automobile  industry  is  not  just  the  size 
of  the  automobile  but  also  the  type  of  the  car  demanded  by  the  market 
place.   Similarly,  cameras,  radios,  television  sets  and  other  brown 
goods  are  also  likely  to  become  per  capita  products. 

Professional  and  personal  services  such  as  insurance,  health  care, 
legal  and  financial  services  must  also  be  redesigned  so  that  they  are 
offered  on  a  per  capita  basis  rather  than  per  household  basis.   This  is 
already  evident  in  the  banking  and  medical  services. 

Third,  as  we  shift  food  preparation  to  food  consumption  at  home 
as  well  as  from  family  dinners  to  individual  eating  habits  for  all 
the  three  meals,  it  is  inevitable  that  grocery  manufacturers  will 
have  to  innovate  new  packaging  sizes  and  ready  to  serve  foods,  which 
are  better  suited  for  personal  consumption  rather  than  household 
consumption.   These  include  cereals,  soups,  chees,  bread,  meat  and 
all  other  staple  foods. 

Fourth,  the  leisure  market  including  entertainment  and  recreation 
must  shift  from  family  to  individual  consumption.   For  example,  it 
is  very  likely  that  each  member  of  the  family  will  watch  his  or  her  own 
television  or  cable  programs  rather  than  together  as  a  family  partly 
due  to  time  constraints  and  partly  due  to  increasing  individualism. 
Therefore,  television  programming  in  both  content  and  timing  needs  to 
shift  from  prime  time  family  programs  to  all  time  presonal  programs. 
This  will  be  necessary  even  for  television  news  programs,,   For  example, 


-13- 


it  will  be  more  and  more  difficult  for  the  American  family  to  get  together 
at  or  after  the  dinner  time  to  watch  the  Walter  Cronkite  show  as  they 
did  for  a  generation.   In  short,  network  news  will  have  to  be  offered  more  and 
more  on  a  continuous  basis  including  on  a  24  hour  basis,, 

Similarly,  recreation  activities  are  likely  to  become  highly 
individualistic  and  personalized.   It  is  likely  that  each  member  of 
the  family  will  engage  in  a  different  recreation  activity  even  when 
the  family  is  together  at  home.   For  example,  the  young  adults  may 
play  videogames  or  program  the  personal  computer  while  the  parents 
exercise  at  home.   The  individualism  in  outdoor  recreation  will  be 
manifested  even  more.   For  example,  tennis,  racquetball,  fitness  centers, 
shopping,  eating  out  are  all  likely  to  compete  for  individual  attention. 

3.   Role  Blurring  for  Self  Sufficiency.   Increasingly,  consumers  are 
likely  to  become  more  and  more  generalists  as  they  manage  and  control 
their  own  life,,   It  is  my  expectation  that  the  old  concepts  of  the 
homemaker  and  the  breadwinner  which  resulted  in  functional  specialization 
are  likely  to  become  obsolete.   Therefore,  women  will  become  shoppers 
and  buyers  of  financial  services,  technical  products,  and  other 
male  oriented  products  and  services „   Similarly,  men  are  likely  to 
become  shoppers  and  buyers  of  household  products  such  as  laundry  detergents, 
grocery  foods  and  vacuum  cleaners.   Finally,  young  adults  will  learn  how 
to  shop,  and  manage  households  along  with  learning  to  cope  with  school 
education  and  computers. 

The  consequence  of  this  role  blurring  to  become  self  sufficient  is 
that  most  marketing  practices  will  have  to  become  universal  in  content. 


-14- 


This  includes  media,  advertising,  product  displays,  sales  personnel, 
retail  promotion,  closing  and  opening  hours  as  well  as  all  support 
services  such  as  refund,  exchange,  credit  financing  and  other  activities. 
They  will  have  to  be  designed  so  that  they  appeal  to  all  age  and  sex 
groups o 

4.   Time-Place  Universality.   Partly  due  to  the  demographic  changes 

and  partly  due  to  the  technological  changes,  it  will  become  increasingly 

common  to  disassociate  from  the  time  and  place  separations  of  work, 

home  and  shopping  activities „   As  Toffler  has  pointed  out  in  his  Third 

Wave,  it  is  becoming  popular  to  work  at  home  as  we  shift  from  the 

industrial  to  the  post-industrial  society.   It  is  also  becoming  increasingly 

popular  to  shop  at  home  through  electronic  shopping  and  direct  marketing. 

In  my  opinion,  it  will  become  more  and  more  common  to  blurr  the  task 
driven  time  and  place  boundaries  between  work,  home  and  shopping 
activities.   Consequently,  marketing  of  consumer  products  and  services 
will  have  to  be  offered  on  a  24  hour  continuous  basis.   It  will  be  also 
offered  through  multiple  and  often  nontraditional  channels  of  distribution 
as  well  as  at  home  through  electronic  marketing  programs ,   In  short,  for 
the  first  time  in  marketing  history,  consumer  will  go  to  the  market  and  a 
marketer  will  go  to  the  consumer  at  the  same  time0   This  is  quite  different 
from  either  the  wagon  days  when  the  marketer  went  to  the  consumer,  and  the 
more  contemporary  shopping  mall  days  in  which  the  consumer  comes  to 
the  marketer^   The  specific  place   Df  transacting  with  each  other  will  be 
primarily  determined  by  the  trade  offs  of  costs  and  benefits  to  each  party. 

In  general,  however,  it  is  my  expectation  that  nontrsditional  multiple 


-15- 


channels  of  distribution  will  become  more  the  norm  rather  than  the 
exception.   For  example,  telephone  and  other  utility  services  may  be 
procured  from  the  supermarkets  and  other  convenience  locations0 
Durable  appliances  as  well  as  automobiles  may  be  bought  at  home 
through  electronic  shoppingo   Financial  services  may  be  offered 
without  personal  interactions  and  from  a  long  distance  through 
telemarketing  programs.   What  is  suggested  is  only  a  tip  of  the  ice- 
berg.  Eventually,  it  is  very  likely  that  the  boundaries  between  shopping, 
specialty  and  convenience  goods  will  become  blurred  sufficiently  to 
change  the  whole  pattern  of  retailing  institutions 0 

5.   Dominance  of  Wants  over  Needs.   As  the  society  progresses  on 
Maslow's  need  hierarchy  from  physiological  and  safety-security  needs 
to  love,  affection  and  self-esteem  needs,  it  is  inevitable  that 
psychological  wants  will  increasingly  dominate  the  consumer 
motivations  over  and  above  the  physiological  needs ,   It  is  no 
exaggeration  to  state  that  as  an  affluent  nation,  America  is  a 
want  driven  rather  than  a  need  driven  society. 

It  will  become  increasingly  difficult  for  companies  to  survive  and 
grow  as  the  consumer  markets  shift  from  need  driven  to  want  driven  markets 
due  to  several  reasons.   First,  products  acquire  want  driven  utilities 
through  their  associations  with  socioeconomic  and  other  reference  groups 
or  with  imageries  and  personalities,  rather  than  through  their  inherent 
functional  benefits.   Therefore,  wants  are  harder  to  engineer  in 
products  and  services0   Indeed,  it  is  precisely  this  shift  from  a  need 
driven  to  a  want  driven  society  which  is  largely  responsible  for  the 
failure  of  technologically  driven  products  and  marketing  programs.   It 


-16- 


will,  therefore,  require  more  and  more  understanding  the  psychology  of 
the  markets  rather  than  the  physiology  of  markets. 

Second,  people  are  likely  to  be  more  divergent  on  what  they  want 
as  compared  to  what  they  need.   It  will  therefore,  become  increasingly 
difficult  to  mass  market  want  driven  products  and  services „   Market 
segmentation  and  market  specialization  will  have  to  be  learnt  in 
place  of  product  specialization  and  mass  marketing.   Indeed,  it  will 
become  increasingly  necessary  to  utilize  pull  strategies  in  place  of 
push  strategies  in  marketings 

Finally,  wants  are  more  dynamic  and  volatile,,   Unlike  needs  which 
are  fairly  stable  and  consistent  over  longer  time  periods,  wants  tend 
to  rise  and  subside  much  faster „   Therefore,  it  clearly  suggests  that 
consumer  marketing  will  increasingly  manifest  shorter  and  shorter 
product,  image,  and  competitive  positioning  life  cycles „   Indeed,  it 
means  that  consumer  marketing  companies  will  have  to  plan  major 
technological  and  marketing  innovations  with  shorter  payback  periods. 

The  emerging  evidence  of  shorter  life  cycles  particularly  for 
those  products  and  institutions  which  are  positioned  on  want  dimensions 
is  massive.   Examples  include  magazines,  recreation,  entertainment 
and  fashions  which  are  all  more  want  driven  rather  than  need  driven 
industrieso   They  also  include  newer  retail  institutions  such  as 
specialty  chains,  party  selling  and  supermarkets. 

6„   Pluralistic  Specialty  Markets.   Pluralism  in  our  values,  life  styles 
and  behavior  is  likely  to  increase  due  to  greater  tolerance  for  individual- 
ism and  personalized  consumption.   Furthermore,  the  electronics  age  permits 


-17- 


marketers  to  profitably  cater  to  smaller  and  smaller  market  segments. 
Therefore,  it  is  my  expectation  that  the  next  two  decades  will  see 
increasing  desire  not  to  assimilate  unique  market  segments  in  the 
mainstream  mass  markets  but  to  cater  to  their  needs  and  wants  as 
specialty  segments.   These  include  ethnic  groups  such  as  Blacks, 
Hispanics,  Orientals,  and  Asians  as  well  as  more  traditional  European 
ethnic  groups.   It  also  includes  other  unique  market  segments  such 
as  the  handicapped,  foreign  tourists,  people  who  work  at  home,  farmers, 
and  other  unique  occupations  such  as  truck  drivers  and  traveling 
salespeople.   They  all  have  unique  needs  and  wants  either  due  to 
biogenic  needs  or  due  to  unique  settings  in  which  they  live  or  work. 

As  we  become  pluralistic,  it  is  obvious  that  the  potential  market 
out  of  these  segments  will  increase.   Furthermore,  as  the  economies  of 
scale  in  manufacturing  and  marketing  are  achieved  at  lower  and  lower 
capacity  levels  due  to  the  electronics  technology,  it  will  become  more 
and  more  interesting  for  consumer  marketers  to  treat  these  segments  as 
separate  specialty  markets „ 

The  trend  is  already  here.   For  example,  cable  and  television  programs, 
and  other  entertainment  media  are  catering  to  some  of  these  specialty 
markets o   Similarly,  food  companies  are  increasingly  marketing  ethnic 
foods  both  in  the  retail  food  chains  as  well  as  in  fast  food  restaurants „ 
Witness  the  emergence  of  theme  restaurants. 

7.   One  Stop,  Hassle  Free  Shopping,,   As  the  society  becomes  increasingly 
time  driven  on  the  one  hand,  and  as  the  marketers  increasingly  broaden 
their  business  definitions,  it  is  likely  that  consumers  will  prefer  one  stop 


-II 


hassle  free  shopping  and  procurement  of  products  and  services. 

This  trend  has  been  there  for  several  years  now,  as  witnessed  by 
the  emergence  of  shopping  malls  and  neighborhood  shopping  centers. 
However,  the  future  is  even  more  pronounced  toward  this  hassle  free 
one  stop  shopping  in  which  the  traditional  location  and  supplier 
boundaries  between  durables  and  consumables,  and  between  products  and 
services  are  also  likely  to  disappear..   The  emergence  qf  hyperstores  is 
here0   For  example,  it  is  very  likely  that  more  and  more  dry  goods  such 
as  home  appliances,  electronics  products,  perfume,  and  apparel  will  be 
bought  and  sold  at  a  neighborhood  Kroger  or  Safeway  stores  along  with 
groceries ,   Similarly,  financial  services  such  as  insurance,  tax 
preparation,  real  estate,  stocks  and  shares  as  well  as  money  management 
services  will  be  transacted  in  a  Sears  store,,   Finally,  practically 
all  products  and  services  are  likely  to  be  shopped  and  procured  from 
the  privacy,  convenience  and  comfort  of  the  home  through  electronic 
shopping. 

HOW  TO  SURVIVE  MARKETING  MEGATRENDS 


Both  demand  driven  and  supply  driven  changes  are  massive  and 
unprecendentedo   It  is,  therefore,  inevitable  that  consumer  marketers 
will  have  to  cope  with  these  changes  and  become  more  and  more  adaptive 
to  the  changing  environments.   Those  who  resist  or  ignore  the  inevitable 
are  likely  to  be  swept  away  by  these  megatrends.   Those  who  pay  attention 
and  adapt  are  likely  to  grow  and  survive  in  the  future. 

But  how  does  one  cope  with  these  marketing  megatrends?   In  my  opinion, 
it  will  require  a  change  in  the  corporate  culture.   It  will  require 


-19- 


accepting  new  philosophies  of  management  and  adopting  new  functions 
and  operations.   It  will  require  breaking  traditions. 

The  following  are  some  of  the  suggestions  to  inculcate  a  new  corporate 
culture. 

1.  Focus  on  the  Market ,   With  the  maturity  of  the  consumer  markets 
(experienced  consumers  and  powerful  competitors)  it  is  absolutely 
essential  that  marketers  constantly  search  for  win-win  situations 
between  the  company  and  the  market  place.   This  will  mean  striving  to 
deliver  more  value  to  the  consumers  without  jeapordizing  corporate 
profitability.   It  means  subordinating  technology  to  customers.   It 
means  bending  the  organization  (products,  distribution,  promotion)  to 
fit  the  market  place  rather  than  bending  the  market  place  (customers, 
intermediaries,  competitors)  to  fit  the  organization^ 

While  this  is  an  obvious  and  a  deceptively  simple  rule  of 
survival,  it  is  as  difficult  as  breaking  a  habit  or  going  on  a  diet:, 
Large  corporations  have  a  way  of  creating  and  perpetuating  the 
bureaucracy  (traditions  and  work  procedures) ,   Often,  it  will  require 
a  change  in  the  top  management  team  who  can  see  the  forrest  while 
gazing  at  the  trees. 

2.  Control  Your  Costs.   With  the  lowering  of  entry-exit  barriers 

as  well  as  global  competitive  perspectives,  it  will  become  necessary 

for  management  of  large  corporations  to  identify  cost  structures  separately 

for  each  product-market  cominations.   With  very  large  and  diverse 

product  portfolios,  it  becomes  very  difficult  if  not  impossible  to 


-20- 


identify  and  trace  various  cost  components.   Furthermore,  these  costs 
should  include  all  functional  activities  which  are  associated  with 
procurement,  manufacturing,  marketing  and  management  overheads.   It  will 
require  greater  financial  controls  and  development  of  on-line  real 
time  information  systems.   The  two  most  common  methods  of  cost  control 
which  have  become  increasingly  popular  are  functional  consolidation  and 
automation.   The  former  is  an  effort  to  retrain  the  specialists  into 
generalists  while  the  latter  is  to  replace  the  specialists  by 
microprocessors. 

3.  Broaden  your  Horizons.   It  will  become  increasingly  necessary  to 
understand  competitive  forces  outside  the  industry.   These  are  more 
commonly  associated  with  substitute  technologies  and  with  the  customers 
including  end  users  producing  their  own  products  and  services  rather 
than  buying  from  the  market  place.   At  the  same  time,  it  will  become 
increasingly  necessary  to  redefine  businesses  more  broadly  than  in 

the  past.   For  example,  packaged  food  companies  must  redefine  their 
businesses  as  the  market  shifts  from  a  food  preparation  to  a  food 
consumption  society.   Similarly,  banks  must  redefine  their  business  as 
financial  services  as  the  electronics  technology  by-passes  the  regulated 
geographical  franchises.   Finally,  consumer  appliance  companies  need  to 
redefine  themselves  as  shopping  goods  companies  as  people  begin  to  buy 
computers,  video  games  and  casette  tape  recorders  from  the  same  appliance 
dealers. 

4.  Decentralize  the  Organization.   The  span  of  control  vs.  cost  of 
control  are  all  encouraging  more  and  more  decentralization  of  the 
corporation^   It  is,  therefore,  possible  to  provide  greater  autonomy  to 
individual  product-market  divisions  without  losing  the  span  of  controls 


-21- 


The  result  is  that  one  can  easily  eliminate  as  many  as  two  levels  of 
management  ranks  from  the  organization  without  jeopardizing  the 
coordination  and  control  objectives „ 

In  general,  it  is  desirable  to  break  up  the  monolithic  organization 
into  separate  lines  of  business  (profit  or  cost  centers)  based  on  the 
commonality  of  manufacturing,  distribution  and/or  product  life  cycles. 
Not  only  is  the  decentralized  organization  more  cost  effective,  it  also 
enables  the  corporation  to  better  focus  on  the  market  and  thereby 
become  responsive  to  changing  market  wants. 

5.   Practice  Pluralistic  Philosophy.   No  single  marketing  approach  is 
likely  to  be  sufficient  in  the  future  simply  becuase  markets  are  becoming 
more  and  more  divergent  with  respect  to  both  the  wants  and  needs  as  well 
as  the  buying  power.   Therefore,  a  single  way  of  doing  business  is 
unlikely  to  appeal  to  all  market  segments „ 

It  will  be  necessary  for  most  large  companies  to  offer  multiple  product 
lines  with  significantly  different  price  points  and  market  their  products 
through  multiple  channels  of  distribution  as  well  as  develop  relationships 
with  mulitple  suppliers.   For  example,  consumer  durables  such  as  consumer 
electronics  and  appliances  are  likely  to  be  increasingly  produced  by  the 
same  company  with  significant  functional  differences  under  two  or  thres 
different  brand  names  with  significant  price  differences.   Similarly,  a 
single  brand  name  is  likely  to  be  distributed  by  many  different  retail 
channels  such  as  department  stores,  specialty  shops,  chain  stores, 
discount  houses  and  catalog  stores.   Finally,  most  retailers  will  find 
that  offering  the  same  assortment  of  dry  goods  or  grocery  products 


-22- 


through    separate  outlets  will  be  necessary.   For  example,  grocery 
chains  such  as  Jewel  Companies  sell  through  box  stores  (self  service) 
as  well  as  through  Superbazaars  (full  service).   Similarly,  Dayton- 
Hudson  (full  service)  has  a  successful  alternative  retail  channel 
called  Target  (self-service) . 

By  following  these  five  rules,  a  company  is  likely  to  survive  the 
turbulent  times „ 


:CKMAN 

1DERY  INC. 

JUN  95 

e  N  MANCHESTER, 
j.To-IW   INDIANA  16962    J