3 5556 020 436 804
O'HARE FIELD
VOLUME I
CHICAGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
AIR AND SURFACE TRAFFIC STUDIES
City of Chicago
Richard J. Daley - Mayor
George L. DeMent - Commissioner of Public Works
William E. Dowries, Jr. - Director of Aviation
TRANSPORTATION LIBRARY
SEP 1994
NORTHWESTERN UNlVtMi I
Naess & Mu r phy
Architects - Engineers
Landrum & Brown
Airport Consultants
James P. O'Donnell
Fuel System Consultant
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NAESS &, MURPHY • ARCHITECTS • ENGINEERS
CHARLES F. MURPHY S I G U R D E . N AE S S CHARLES F. MURPHY JR. C H A R L E S G . R U M M E L C A RT E R H . M A N N Y J R . T H O M AS J . M U LI G
October 21, 1958
Mr. George L. DeMent,
Commissioner of Public Works
City of Chicago
City Hall
Chicago, Illinois
Dear Commissioner DeMent:
O'Hare Field
Chicago International Airport
Volume I "Air and Surface Traffic1
We submit herewith Volume I of a proposed series of reports which will deal
with various aspects of O'Hare Field planning.
This volume, prepared by Landrum and Brown, airport consultants, discusses
expected future passenger, aircraft, freight and automobile traffic at O'Hare
as well as other related matters, and has served as the basis for planning
future facilities for the development of the airport.
Very truly yours,
NAESS & MURPHY
224 SOUTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, CHiCAGO 4. ILLINOIS
HARRISON 7-3456
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SPECIAL REFERENCES
PART A PREFACE
PART B AIR TRAFFIC STUDIES AND FORECASTS
Chapter I - Air Passengers
Chapter II - Aircraft
Chapter III - Air Cargo
Chapter IV - Air Mail
PART C TERMINAL UTILIZATION ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS
Chapter V - Population
Chapter VI - Automotive Vehicles
PART D CON CESSION REVENUE STUDIES AND FORECASTS
Chapter VII ->. Annual Gross Revenues
APPENDICES
Appendix A ■+ Air Traffic
Appendix B - Termianl Utilization
Appendix C - Concession Revenues
SPECIAL REFERENCES
Page
Number
Air Passenger Forecasts 24
Aircraft Forecasts 34
Air Cargo Forecasts 40
Air Mail Forecasts 43
Terminal Population Forecasts 50
Automotive Vehicle Forecasts 64
Concession Revenue Forecasts 67
PART A - PREFACE
Objectives
Scope
Methods
Contents
PREFACE
OBJECTIVES
The objectives of the airport air and surface traffic studies and
forecasts presented in this volume are:
1 . Determine the distribution of air traffic potential in the Chicago
area between O'Hare Field, Chicago International Airport and
Midway Airport, and
2. Determine the terminal building and area utilization and criteria.
SCOPE
The studies and analyses included herein are limited in type and
scope to those directly related to the first stage space and facility planning requirements
of Naess and Murphy, the architects and engineers retained by the City of Chicago.
Air Passengers
Studies and forecasts are presented which clearly show historical traffic
volumes as well as forecasted volumes for the City of Chicago and that portion of the City
of Chicago traffic which should be realized at O'Hare Field.
Potential volumes of the different types of air passengers locally and
non-locally, originating and terminating, connecting and through passengers are presented.
Analyses of actual and forecasted future passenger volumes in peak
periods are presented.
Aircraft
Forecasts of the volumes of annual and peak period aircraft
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movements expected at O'Hare Field in 1965 are presented. The anticipated distribution
of these aircraft movements by type of user, Air Carrier, General Aviation and Military
is also presented.
Air Mail
The growth of past volumes of Air Mail for the total Chicago area is
shown and reasonable volumes to plan on at O'Hare Field in 1965 are indicated .
Air Cargo
Studies of the growth of past air cargo traffic for the totai Chicago area
are presented and forecasts of reasonable volumes which may be expected at O'Hare Field
are shown .
Population
Studies are presented which define the present and forecasted
distribution of terminal population by functional area in 1965. The areas studies were:
ticket counters, lobby, general merchandise, food and drink areas, claim baggage and
ground transportation areas.
Forecasts are shown of the distribution of terminal population according
to the following types of people: originating and terminating air passengers, visitors and
spectators and employees.
Automotive Vehicles
Studies and forecasts of vehicle inventories which can be expected are
shown by type of vehicle. Anticipated inventories for taxis, limousines, and rental cars
are presented.
The volume of vehicular traffic in and out of O'Hare Field to plan
~2-
on for 1965 by type of vehicle is presented. The proportion of private autos, taxis, airport
limousines and trucks in this traffic flow is shown.
Concession Revenue
Studies and analyses were made to establish reasonable levels of
concession revenue to plan on at O'Hare Field in 1965 for those concessions whose
revenues are an integral part in the determination of their space requirements.
METHODS
Original data was used wherever possible. Where secondary data
was used, it was first closely verified. Major sources of data were special surveys
conducted at O'Hare Field, records of the Bureau of Aviation, records of the airlines
serving Chicago, and special surveys made by the Civil Aeronautics Board of connecting
passenger volumes in Chicago.
Present data and relationships were compared to historical data wherever
possible to evaluate the effect of any trends or shifts in pattern which may have occurred.
The inter-relationship of air traffic, terminal population and
vehicular traffic and revenue was defined and utilized to establish consistent bases
for forecasts. Past and present experience at other major airports was reviewed to confirm
the reasonableness of the relationships of traffic volumes and planning ratios for O'Hare Field
when it is a more fully utilized airport. Particular attention was given to data and
experience at Midway Airport. On the basis of these methods, forecasts were developed
for the median peak air traffic period in 1965 rather than the absolute peak.
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Other reputable forecasts, both for the Chicago area and for the
United States, were reviewed to substantiate the reasonableness of the forecasts and
the forecast methods utilized.
CONTENTS
Part "A" is the Preface of the report and considers the Objectives,
Scope, Methods and Contents of this Volume I .
Part "B" consists of air traffic studies and forecasts and deals with
the following elements of air traffic:
Chapter I - Air Passengers
Chapter II - Aircraft
Chapter III - Air Cargo
Chapter IV -Air Mali
Part "C" of this Volume I considers Terminal Utilization , In this
Part the following subjects are examined:
Chapter V - Terminal Population
Chapter VI - Terminal Area Vehicles
Part "D" presents Concession Revenue Forecasts.
Chapter VII - Annual Gross Revenue
Appendix "A" contains data and detailed analyses substantiating
the Forecasts. Presented is data pointing out historic traffic trends, detailed analyses
of air passengers by type, technical considerations employed in determining the distribution
of air passengers between airports and studies substantiating forecast bases employed.
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Appendix "B" presents detailed data applicable to the Terminal Utilization
Studies and Forecasts, Among these items shown are forms employed in the special surveys
at O'Hare Field, special studies substantiating forecast methods, supporting studies of
the survey period/median peak air traffic period relationship, detailed data determined
through the terminal surveys and studies of terminal.
Appendix "C" presents detailed data applicable to the Concession
Revenue Studies and Forecasts. This appendix contains pertinent concession revenue data
from Midway Airport and O'Hare Field and a description of the bases utilized in the
development of concession revenue forecasts.
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PART B -AIR "TRAFFIC STUDIES AND FORECASTS
Chapter I - Air Passengers
Chapter I! - Aircraft
Chapter II! - A?r Cargo
Chapter IV - Air Mail
AIR PASSENGERS
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTORY
This chapter considers the past, present and future domestic and
international and overseas air passenger traffic of the Chicago area,, Its purpose is to
discjjss in detail the steps leading up to a forecast of air passenger traffic which can
reasonably be expected at 0"Hare Field in 1965*
In the development of this forecast a review is made of the economic
profile of the Chicago area, the adequacy of air service and the historical air traffic
developments These factors were then considered together and used to develop the
forecasts of domestic and international and overseas air passenger traffic that the Chicago
area could be expected to generate in 1965»
The entire Chicago area was examined through a market analysis
study to determine the distribution of the potential air passenger traffic to be realized at
O "Hare Field and Midway Airport in 1965c
AREA ECONOMIC PROFILE
Introduction
The economic profile of a community is of primary importance in
analyzing and determining its potential development of air traffic . Accordingly, the
following economic factors in the Chicago area cwere studied and their effect on the
development of air traffic considered:
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1 . Size of the Chicago air traffic market,
2. Quality of this market, and
3. The particular economic character of the Chicago airea as it
relates to air traffic development.
Market Size
Population in the Chicago area has increased by 22% from 1940 to
1950 as compared to an increase of only 15% for the United States as a whole . Population
survey data, indicates that the Chicago area Is continuing to grow at a more rapid rate
than the rest of the United States . In the period 1948 to 1957, while the United States
population increased 17%, the Chicago population Increased 26%. A pattern of substantial
population growth indicates a growth market for air transportation. This is shown in Table I
of Appendix A.
Market Quality
The quality of the Chicago area as a market of air transportation is
indicated by the distribution of its population compared to that of the United States, the State of
Illinois and the entire United States,, The larger proportion of consumer spending units
having higher incomes indicates a market which can better afford air transportation. This
comparative Income distribution is shown in Table If of Appendix A.
Market Character
The economic character of the Chicago area is of considerable importance
In Its development of air traffic. Chicago by nature is a marketing community and
marketings communities generate air passenger traffic more relative to their population size
than do Industrial or balanced economy communities. This marketing character is shown
by the volume of wholesale sales per capita in Chicago . Chicago is second only
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to New York in the volume of wholesale sales per capita of the five largest metropolitan
areas in population in the United States and ranks substantially above the United
States average. This is shown in Table 3 of Appendix A.
The geographical location of the Chicago area is another important
factor in its economic character. Its proximity to the Mid-West farm belt has promoted
its substantial sales of agricultural equipment and supplies while making it a center point
for the collection and distribution of agricultural products. Chicago is an important
port for vast quantities of goods shipped on the Great Lakes, a factor which is expected
to increase in importance when the full effect of the St. Lawrence Seaway on Great Lakes
shipping is realized. The location of the Chicago area contributes to its position as the
major distribution and marketing center in the broad central portion of the United States.
The relationship between the Chicago area and the air transportation
system of the United States is indicated by the numbers of connecting passengers at
Chicago airports. Chicago is a "gateway" type city and serves as an important con-
necting point for air travelers in two different respects:
1 . Chicago serves as an important connecting point in linking
trunk operations that are primarily of an East-West character with those whose routes
extend primarily in a North-South direction. In this case also the large number of
schedules provided by the trunk carriers at Chicago give added convenience to the air
traveler in planning connecting flights.
2. Chicago is an important connecting point between passengers
using local service airlines and those using trunk line carriers. |n this respect,
passengers from the large areas extensively covered by the local service airlines, are
channeled in and out of Chicago. In Chicago the trunk carriers provide a high level of air
service to numerous more distant points.
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Historical ASr Traffic Development
Air passenger traffic in the United States over the past ten years has
grown at an extremely rapid rate. During this period^ air traffic of the Chicago area
has grown at an even faster rate.
In terms of airline departures, the Chicago area has undergone a growth
substantially greater than that of the United States. While scheduled domestic
airline departures in the United States increased from 1 ,861 ,199 to 3,318,282 from
1948 to 1957, scheduled domestic airline departures for the Chicago area increased
from 65,943 to 166,242 in the same period. This represents a growth of almost 180%
for the United States and a growth of about 250% for the Chicago area. This growth
pattern is shown in Table 8 of Appendix A.
Even more important is the growth in air passengers for the Chicago area
relative to that of the United States. During the period 1948 to 1957 enplaned
passengers for the entire United States increased about three times while enplaned
passengers for the Chicago area increased over four times. The growth is shown in
Table 5 of Appendix A.
The growth of air passenger traffic in the Chicago area was examined in
further detail by separating total air passenger traffic into the following component
parts:
1 . Originating and Terminating - This class of air passenger traffic
consists of those travelers who begin or end their trip in Chicago.
2. Enplaning and Deplaning - This class of air passenger traffic includes
originating and terminating passengers as well as those passengers connecting from
one flight to another in Chicago as part of a trip that does not include Chicago
as either the origination or the termination point.
-9-
A rough and general determination was made of the adequacy of
air service authorizations today and for the forecast period. These studies indicate
that the City of Chicago will need to give attention to expanding and improving the
scheduled airline services to the community. Obtaining air service is a competitive
function of a city and one which must be attended to regularly to insure the proper
growth of traffic and service.
Forecast of Domestic Air Passengers - 1965
Prior to 1955 scheduled airline service at Chicago was provided
only through Midway Airport. During the last several months of 1955 through 1956 and
1957, limited airline service has also been provided at O'Hare Field. Since service
has been provided only on a limited basis at O'Hare Field, the historical study of total
Chicago air passengers must, therefore, be based on a service pattern consisting primarily
of air service at Midway Airport.
Since a forecast of total Chicago air passenger traffic in 1965 with
the operation of both O'Hare Field and Midway Airport must be based on the historical
growth trend of Chicago air passenger traffic as well as an improvement in quality of
service through the operation of two airports rather than one, the first step in this study
was the development of a forecast of air passenger traffic in 1965 based upon a con-
tinuance of the present service pattern. This forecast is shown below in Table I :
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HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED VOLUME OF
TABLE I
DOMESTIC AIR PASSENGERS
PRESENT CHICAGO SERVICE PATTERN *
1953-1956 - 1965
1953
1954
1955
1956
Enplaning
Passengers
2,650,415
3,045,165
3,603,278
3,963,789
1965 7,881,000
* Service at Midway Airport with limited service provided at O'Hare Field
Since the purpose of developing O'Hare Field was in part to improve
the service to the air travellers of Chicago it was necessary to prepare a second estimate
of air passenger traffic based on the provision of adequate service at two airports. Studies
were made of the effect of the location of 0°Hare Field on the realization of air passenger
potential. These studies were based upon similar studies at other cities which demonstrate
conclusively that the convenience of the airport to the air travelling public has an
effect on the actual amount of the potential volumes that will be realized .
With the addition of a second airport to the service pattern of the
Chicago area# the increased convenience to the travelling public can result in an increase
in the amount of air traffic that the Chicago area will generate if adequate service is
provided at both airports. In order to measure the increase in air traffic due to the operation
of O'Hare Field in addition to Midway Airport, it was necessary to measure the increase
in convenience to the air travelling public.
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With the provision of air service at two airports, the airport
distance is reduced for a substantial part of the Chicago area., When this distance is
reduced for these people they have a higher propensity to use air transportation since
the service is offered much closer to the prospective buyer and it is more convenient
for him to take advantage of it. This results in a higher realization of air passenger
potential in the Chicago area with adequate air service provided at two airports than
if adequate service were provided only at one. Because this potential and its develop-
ment according to airport distance had been defined for each of the small Census Tracts
in relation to both Midway Airport and O'Hare Field, it was possible to measure the
increase in air passenger potential realization that would result from the addition of
O'Hare Field to the service pattern of the Chicago area*
This increase in air passenger potential realization was used to
establish the increase in total air passenger traffic at both airports that would result
from the addition of O'Hare Field. This increase was applied to the basic growth
trend previously determined to obtain the volume of air passenger traffic for the entire
Chicago area. Forecasts of air passenger traffic in the Chicago area in 1965 with the
provision of adequate air service at both Midway Airport and O'Hare Field is shown below
in Table II:
FORECAST OF AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC TABLE II
TOTAL CHICAGO AREA*
1965 Air Passengers
Local Originating 3,208,200
Non-local Originating 2,175,200
Connecting 3,370,700
Total Enplaning 8,754,100
*With complete service offered at both Midway Airport and O'Hare Field.
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Technical notes of the mathematical technique utilized to develop this
market analysis forecast of air passenger traffic is presented in Appendix A. A more
complete description of the techniques utilized are described in a subsequent section
of this chapter.
Forecast of international and Overseas Air Passengers A 965
Studies were conducted to develop forecasts of the number of international
and Overseas air passengers at OsHare Field in 1965. These forecasts were developed
by two separate steps: first, present International and Overseas air passenger market
potential was established for the Chicago area and, second, the future growth of this
potential and the extent to which it would be realized in terms of actual enplaning
passengers by 1 965 was forecasted .
In order to establish the present International and Overseas air passenger
potential in the Chicago area studies and analyses were carried out to develop three
independent estimates of this market potential. To obtain a conservative final estimate ,
the median of these three estimates was adopted as most representative of present Inter-
national and Overseas air passenger potential of the Chicago area. The technical notes
concerning the development of the three forecast bases utilized are presented in Appendix A
This International and Overseas air passenger potential as thus developed
was representative only of the potential traffic at Chicago of U.S. Flag Air Carriers.
In order to make provision for the potential volume of traffic that would be carried by
Foreign Flag Air Carriers, the following adjustment was made. It was considered that
at O'Hare Field in 1965 Foreign Flag Air Carriers would account for the same proportion
of total International and Overseas air passenger traffic as they presently account for of
total United States International and Overseas air passenger traffic.
The future growth of this potential was forecasted as increasing at the
same rate of growth as the expected growth in total International and Overseas air
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passenger traffic enplaned at stations in the Continental United States from the present
to 1965. Forecast s of International and Overseas enplaning passengers at O'Hare Field
in 1965 are shown below in Table III:
FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AND OVERSEAS AIR
PASSENGERS - O'HARE FIELD
TABLE
1965
1956
1960
1965
International and Overseas
Enplaning Passengers
Potential
Actual
128,000 5,719
190,000 38,000
267,000 134,000
Percent
of Potential
Realized
4%
20%
50%
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FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AIR TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN CHICAGO AIRPORTS
Having established the forecasted total Chicago air traffic during the
forecast period, as discussed in a previous section, it was necessary to determine
what distribution of this traffic between Midway Airport and O'Hare Field would
occur during the forecast period,, This problem actually broke down into two related but
distinct parts:
1. How would passenger potential (air service, demand) be distributed
geographically in, the Chicago area in 1965?
2. How much of this potential would be realized at O'Hare Field and how
much ait Midway Airport?
Since the answer to question *1 supplied the basic data needed to answer
question "2, it is appropriate to consider them here individually and in that order.
1. Geographic*. Distribution of Air Passenger Potential - 1965
To establish the relative degree of air passenger generation by geographic
location, a study was made of each of the approximately 1,200 Census Tracts in the
Chicago area. Three main factors were considered:
1. Population - how many families are there in each Census Tract?
2. Income - what is the income distribution of the families in each particular
tract?
3. Airport location -how far do these families have to travel to an airport?
These three factors were used to determine the relative air passenger
potential of each Census Tract in the Chicago area. It was considered that (1) the
number of families in a particular area, (2) their ability to pay or their need for air
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transportation ( since air travel for business purposes is related to higher income occupation),
as well as ( 3 ) the relative convenience in traveling to an airport determine the number of
air trips which a particular area will generate. The Census Tract division of the Chicago
area was used in this study because of their great number and because of the availability
of detailed, current and historical information for these Census Tracts.
The first step was to use the current and historical data to make a
forecast of the number of families of each income group in each Census Tract in 1965. This
was accomplished by taking a straight-line projection to 1965 of the population growth rates
which existed between 1950 and 1955, a. technique which was sufficient for the purpose to
which the results were puto
Each income group was then assigned a relative index of air passenger
generation reflecting the number of trips by air per year, on the aver, which a family
whose income fell within that group could be expected to make0
AIR TRAVEL POTENTIAL BY INCOME GROUP TABLE IV
Index of Number
of Annual Air
Income Group Trips per Family
$10,000 and over 7.14
$ 6,000 to $9,999 1.79
$ 3,000 to $5,999 .66
$ 0 to $2,999 .14
In each Census Tract, the number of families in each income group was
multiplied by the corresponding index of annual air trips to determine the total
air passenger potential for all families in that income group., Then: the air
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passenger potential for all income groups were added together to determine the total air
passenger potential for each group. This was done for each of the Census Tracts in the
Chicago area.
Having thus determined the relative air passenger potential for each
tract, it was then necessary to adjust this potential to take into account the distance from
each tract to Midway Airport and O'Hare Field . Numerous studies have shown clearly that
the farther an area is from an airport, the smaller will be the share of air passenger potential
which will be realized in terms of actual air trips made. After a study of various measures
of this effect, it was considered reasonable to apply the reductions shown in the following
table to air passenger potential according to the distance between the tract and the airports:
EFFECT OF AIRPORT DISTANCE ON AIR PASSENGER POTENTIAL TABLE V
Distance Per Cent of Locally
in Miles Generated Passenger Potential
to Ai rport Realized Lost
100% 0%
75 25
50 50
30 70
25 75
20 80
15 85
10 90
5 95
Several features of this table should be noted. According to the scale
of reductions, to realize 100% of the locally generated passenger potential, the airport
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must be no more than two miles distant from all passengers. It is, of course, impossible in
any large city for the airport to be within two miles of every home. Therefore, it will
always be impossible to realize 100% of the locally generated air passenger potential.
Since some Census Tracts, however, may be within two miles of an airport,
in order to give these tracts the proper measure of their realized potential all others that
are a greater distance away must receive a reduced realization. The effect of this is to
have an apparent low realization of total locally generated air passenger potential
for the entire city.
At first glance, the reductions for some of the distance bands beyond
ten miles seem v.ery severe. It should be considered in this respect, however, that the
average distance from all sections of the city to an airport might as well be such that the
average realization of potential would also be considerably reduced from 100%. Thus
when considered in relation to the average for the entire city, unusually high reductions
are not assigned to any mileage band.
The scale of reductions was applied to the total air passenger potential
of each tract according to the distance between the tract and each airport. This established
the portion of air passenger potential for each tract which could be realized by each airport.
At this stage, the relative air passenger potential which would be real ized
from each of the approximately 1,200 Census Tracts in the Chicago area had been determined,
It now became possible to go on to the second, and more important question: how will these
passengers distribute between O'Hare Field and Midway Airport?
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2„ Distribution of Passengers Between O'Hare and Midway
The distribution of total Chicago air traffic was accomplished by considering
separately the following four classes of air passengers:
A. Jet Traffic
1. Locally generated
2. Non - locally generated
Bo Non - Jet Traffic
1. Locally generated
2. Non - Locally generated
In this study it was considered that all jet traffic would by necessity use
O'Hare Field. An analysis of this type of air passenger traffic expected to occur at
Chicago during the forecase period indicated that in 1965, 20% of all Chicago traffic would
utilize jet-powered aircraft,, This proportion then was assigned to O'Hare Field because only
O'Hare, of the two airports, would have the ability to handle this type of aircraft.,
Of the remaining 80% of total Chicago air passenger traffic which would use
non-jet aircraft, the locally generated air passengers would be the more strongly influenced
by the distance which these air passengers had to travel to use either Midway Airport
or O'Hare Field. The geographic distribution of such passengers had, as discussed above,
already had been worked out for approximately 1,200 Chicago area Census Tracts.
There is no doubt that, given a choice between airports offering comparable
service, locally generated passengers would prefer to use that airport which served their area
best; i. e. the airport closest to their particular tract. Accordingly, the portion of total air
passengers potential for each tract which would be realized by the closest airport was assigned
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to this closest airport. When this had been done, for all tracts, the air passenger
potential of the Chicago area had been distributed into three groups: ( 1 ) those
preferring, because of distance, to use Midway Airport, or ( 2 ) O'Hare Field, and
( 3 ) those potential passengers whose homes were an equal distance from both airports
and who were presumed, on this consideration to have no preference for either airport.
In addition to this small group of non-jet locally generated passengers
who live at equal distance from both airports, there is the group of non-jet non-locally
generated passengers who have not yet been distributed. This latter group will also
have relatively little preference as a result of distance, since ( 1 ) most of them will be
traveling between the airports and downtown Chicago and neither airport has a really
marked advantage for this trip, ( 2 ) they will be traveling by limousine , with consequent
reduction in their concern for the length of the trip, and ( 3 ) as individuals they will
use the Chicago airports infrequently relative to the locally generated passengers, with
still further reduction in their concern for the length of the trip.
Accordingly, these two classes of potential air passengers were distributed
between Midway and O'Hare Field according to the proportion of total schedules which
each airport would offer; these schedules in turn, being distributed on the basis of the
preference distribution of non-jet locally generated air passengers with the jet generated
air passengers assigned to OsHare Field.
To summarize this distribution procedure:
1 . All jet aircraft is assigned to O'Hare Field.
2. Locally generated non-jet air passengers are assigned to Midway Airport,
and O'Hare Field, according to whichever airport is closest to the passenger's homes.
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3, The distribution of these fet and non-jet locally generated passengers
is expected to determine the distribution of non-jet airline schedules
between Midway Airport and O 'Hare Fieldo
4, All non -jet locally generated passengers whose homes are an equal
distance from Midway Airport and O'Hare Field are expected to be
distributed between the two airports on the basis of the distribution
of the airline schedules,
5, All non-jet non-local ly generated air passengers are expected to be
distributed between Midway Airport and O'Hare Field on the basis
of the distribution, of the airline schedules between the two airports
alsOo
60 All connecting airline passengers are expected to be distributed
between Midway and O'Hare Field on the basis of airline jet and
non-jet schedules.
This study, when completed, indicated that in 1965, 59% of total Chicago
air passenger traffic would use O'Hare Field while the remainining 41% would use Midway
Airport.
This distribution is partially the result of a shift in the population and
personal income of the Chicago Area which, during the forecast period, tends to increase
the number of potential air passengers who have have a preference, based on distance, for
air service at O 'HareField rather than at Midway Airport, However, far more important
than this shift in determining the distribution are the basic passenger generating factors
themselves of number of families, income, distance from the aifports, preference for
21 -
closer rather than more distant service, and , of course, the ability of O'Hare to handle
jet equipment., The 59 - 41 split, thus, would be a stable one except as a consequence
of major changes in one or more of these basic .factors.
TOTAL CHICAGO AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC TABLE VI
BY AIRPORT - BY TYPE OF PASSENGER
1965 1965
Local and Non -Local
Midway
(0
OcHare
Total
Chicago
(3)
Originating
2,425,100
2,958,300
5,383,400
Connecting
1,186,500
2,184,200
3,370,700
Tofal Enplaning
3,611,600
5,142,500
8,754,100
Local and Non-Local
Terminating 2,425,100 2,958,300 5,383,400
Connecting 1,186,500 2,184,200 3,370,700
Tofal Deplaning 3,611,600 5,142,500 8,754,100
Tofal All Passengers 7,223,200 10,285,000 17,508,200
Percentage 41.3% 58.7% 100.0%
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3.5
Forecast of Distribution of Domestic Air Passengers
between Midway Airport and O'Hare Field
1965
Local <& Non-locsil
Connecting
Local & Non-local
Connecting
DVnid-WELy-
O'Hare
Exhibit I
JET AND NON -JET ENPLANING AIR PASSENGERS TABLE VII
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Jet Traffic
Locally Generated
Non-Local ly Generated
Connecting
Total Jet
Non -Jet Traffic
Locally Generated 1,053,700
N on-Local ly Generated 827,900
Connecting 1,510,100
Total Non -Jet 3,391,700
Total Enplaning Passengers c 140 cnn
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Forecast of Distribution of Enplaning Domestic Air Passengers
by type and between jet and non-jet traffic at O'Hare Field
1965
1.5
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M
•H
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Locally
generated
Non-locally
generated
Jet Traffic
Connecting
Looally
generated
Non-locally
generated
Connecting
Non-jet Traffic
Exhibit II
SUMMARY OF AIR PASSENGER FORECASTS TABLE VIII
O' HARE FIELD
1965
Enplaning
Passengers
1965
Scheduled Domestic 5,142,500
Scheduled International
and Overseas 134,000
Total 5.276.5QQ
CONNECTING PASSENGER ANALYSIS
Previous analyses had indicated that a stable relationship existed
between connecting passengers and total air passenger traffic at Chicago in past years.
Further studies were necessary to determine the distribution of interline connecting
passengers by airlines. These studies were made necessary by the large volumes of
connecting passengers at Chicago and the resulting impact that this traffic exerts on
space and facility planning.
Accordingly, a study was conducted which examined the interline connecting
passenger distribution at Chicago from the data available through the Civil Aeronautics
Board airline revenue passenger surveys for 1954, 1955 and 1956. Thus not only could
the distribution of the total interline connecting passenger traffic be determined but the
effect of any trends or changing patterns could be noted and appraised. A special
machine tabulation was carried out to provide information on interline connecting
passengers in the most useful form. All survey data was then expanded to be representative
of traffic for an entire year»
In the first analysis the interline connecting passengers exchanged between
each airline pair were ranked for each of the three years studied, 1954, 1955 and 1956.
-24-
This analysis thus provides detailed information and the relative importance of airline
pairs in terms of interline connecting passengers exchanged. Since the data studied covers
a three year period, the effect of trends or changing patterns can be quickly noted.
An additional study was then conducted to determine for each of the
airlines studies the following Information:
1 . Total connecting passengers received
2. Percent of connecting passengers received from each other airline
3. What percent interline connecting passengers were of enplaning
passengers
Through this study additional information regarding not only the total
volume of interline connecting passengers exchanged between pairs was determined but
also the directional flow of this traffic. Jn addition, the relative importance of connecting
passengers as a percent of total enplaning passengers can be readily determined for each
airline. The findings of these studies are shown in Tables 6 and 7 of Appendix A. The
fifteen airline pairs exchanging the most connecting passengers are shown in table IX
on the following page.
-25-
PATTERN OF [NTt'R-LINE CONNECTING TRAFFIC TABLE IX
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
1956
Airline Pairs
Inter-line Connecting Passengers Exchanged
Number Rank
AA-UA 106,848 1
UA-TW 75,216 2
UA-EA 64,518 3
AA - NO 62,226 4
AA-TW 60,990 5
EA - NW 50,580 6
UA-NO 53,160 7
UA-DL 52,362 8
EA-NO 48,252 9
UA-CL 45,696 10
AA-NW 43,806 11
NW-TW 41,394 12
NO-TW 40,884 13
DL - NW 40,620 14
DL-NO 36,402 15
-26 -
Exhibit III
xhibit III
AIRCRAFT
CHAPTER II
INTRODUCTORY
This chapter contains a discussion of the forecasts of the annual and peak hour
aircraft movements for Scheduled Domestic Air Carriers at O'Hare Field in 1965. Forecasts
of aircraft operations for International and Overseas Air Carriers, Non-Scheduled Air
Carriers, Military and General Aviation are also developed and presented for a complete
space planning basis.
Also considered is the expected distribution of air carrier aircraft movements
at O'Hare Field in 1965 by type of aircraft; jet, turbo-prop, reciprocating engine and
helicopter.
Historical Development
As a basic step in the studies conducted, it was necessary to secure sound
historic data upon which the forecast could be based. The historic volumes of aircraft
movements for each of the respective categories of aircraft users operating at O'Hare Field
were obtained. The limited present operations at O'Hare Fieldare not felt to be
representative of future conditions. Therefore, historic data of Midway Airport was obtained
as typical of a fully developed airport. The historic number of aircraft movements for the
United States as a whole were also obtained and studied.
The development of scheduled airline aircraft operations was studied from the
point of view of average seats per aircraft, load factors and number of departures. The growth
of scheduled domestic departures in the Chicago area relative to the growth of the United
States is shown in Table 8 in Appendix A.
During the period 1948 to 1957, these airline departures have increased at a
rate slightly higher than that of the United States, indicating that the growth of airline
departures has been comparable to the growth in air passengers.
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The growth of civil aviation at 0°Hare Field was studied as compared to the
total Chicago growth and to that of an average United States tower operation. It was
found that General Aviation movements at OaHare Field are increasing at a rate
substantially greater than the rate of growth in Chicdgo or at the average United States
Civil Aeronautics Administration Tower.
Particular attention was given to the distribution of hourly aircraft activity per
scheduled airline operation recorded in the past for both O'Hare Field and Midway
Airport,
FORECASTED AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS AT O0HARE FIELD - 1965
Forecasts of annual aircraft movements Chicago 0°Hare Field in 1965 were
developed for the following categories of aircraft users:
Scheduled Domestic Airline
Scheduled International and Overseas Airline
Non-Scheduled Airline
Military
Civil-Local and Itinerant
Helicopter Air Taxi
A. Scheduled Domestic Airline Operations
The forecast of annual aircraft operations for scheduled airlines was based upon
the forecasted volumes of enplaning air passengers, the average aircraft seating capacity
and the enplaning passenger load factor.
Studies were made of historical enplaning load factors for the United States. As
may be seen in Table 9 of Appendix A, Chicago enplaning load factors have been
typically 50% in recent years. This level was considered reasonable for operations at
O'Hare Field in 1965.
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Forecasts of the average number of seats per aircraft were then
developed for both jet and non-jet aircraft. These forecasts were based on the expected
size composition of the United States airline fleet and the average seating capacities
of both jet and non-jet aircraft in this fleet. Average seats per aircraft are expected
to be 1 17 for jet aircraft and 61 for non-jet aircraft y as shown in Table 10 of Appendix A.
The expected distribution of air passengers according to jet and
non-jet traffic had been forecasted previously as shown in Table VII of Chapter I of
this report.
To develop forecasts of the number of air carrier operations
which would Tesult from these forecasted volumes of air passengers, the enplaned
passenger load-factor was applied to the average seats per aircraft for jet and non-jet
aircraft to determine the numbers of enplaned passengers per departure for jet and non-jet
aircraft. The numbers of jet and non-jet air passengers were divided by the numbers of
jet and non-jet enplaning passengers per departure to obtain jet and non-jet departures
in 1965. These numbers of departures were then doubled to reflect the number of
domestic scheduled airline operations at O'Hare Field in 1965. The development
of these forecasts is shown in detail In Tabid 1 1 cf Appendix A.
!t should be noted in connection with this forecast method that the
enplaning passenger load-fbctor represents the percent of departing aircraft seats
filled by enplaning passengers at a particular station. The departing load factor represents
the percent of departing aircraft seats filled by enplaning and through passengers and is
higher than the enplaning load factor. The route load-factor is in turn higher than either
the enplaning or departing load-factors normally experienced.
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FORECAST OF DOMESTIC SCHEDULED AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS TABLE I
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Scheduled Domestic
Air Carrier Operations
1965 282,300
B. Scheduled International Airline Operations
The forecast of the number of scheduled international airline aircraft movements
at OaHare Field in 1965 was developed by a study similar to that carried out to forecast
aircraft movements of the scheduled domestic airlines. Since only limited service is
presently available for these forecasts must be for general planning purposes only. The
realization of these forecasts is dependent on additional international and overseas air
service being obtained by the City of Chicago.
It was considered that, by 1965, jet equipment would be used almost exclusively
in international air transportation, due principally to the advantages of this type of
equipment on longer hauls. Accordingly, it was considered that the average seating
capacity of international airline equipment would be 1 17 seats per aircraft.
Since the international and overseas air passenger forecasts for O'Hare Field
in 1965 are volumes typical of a fairly well developed international airport today, load
factor of 45% was forecasted to correspond more closely with load-factors experienced by
all United States Flag carriers today.
As forecasted on this basis, expected scheduled international airline aircraft
movements are 5,000 at O0Hare Field in 1965, as shown in Table II below.
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FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AND OVERSEAS
AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS
O'HARE FIELD
TABLE XI
1965
1965
International and Overseas
Air Carrier Operations
5,000
Co Scheduled Airline Aircraft
A study was made of the expected distribution of scheduled airline
aircraft at O'Hare Field in 1965 according to the following types of equipment: jet,
turbo-prop, and reciprocating engine aircraft.
The studies of scheduled airline movements, discussed previously
in this section, provided a distribution according to jet and non-jet aircraft. It was
therefore necessary in this study to determine the distribution between turbo-prop and
reciprocating engine types of the volume of non-jet aircraft operations.
This distribution was made on the basis of the expected distribution
of the total United States non-jet airline aircraft fleet in 1965. Based upon this study
the following distribution of scheduled airline operations by type of aircraft at O'Hare
Field in 1965 was developed.
FORECAST OF SCHEDULED AIRLINE AIRCRAFT TABLE III
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Scheduled Airline
Operations
Number
1965
Percent
Jet
Turbo-prop
Reciprocating
Total
97,400
127,000
65,500
289,900
33%
44
23
100%
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D. Non-Scheduled Airline Aircraft
Forecasts were developed of the volume of non-scheduled airline aircraft
operations at O'Hare Field in 1965. This type of operation is of minor importance at the
present time and the possibility exists that it may be eliminated by the Civil Aeronautics
Board during the forecast period. For a complete space and facility planning basis however,
a conservative forecast of this type of aircraft operation was developed „ Limited studies
indicated a relationship between the growth of scheduled air carrier operations and the
growth of non-scheduled operations. The following forecast of non -scheduled airline
aircraft operations at O'Hare Field in 1965 was developed on the basis of this relationship.
FORECAST OF NON-SCHEDULED AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS TABLE IV
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Non -Scheduled
Air Carrier Operations
1965 30,800
E. General Aviation Operations
Forecasts of General Aviation operations were developed for completeness
in space and facility planning criteria. The volume of General Aviation operations which
can be reasonably expected to occur at O'Hare Field in 1965 if airport management allows
a rate of growth comparable to that expected for this traffic in the United States is shown
below in Table V.
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FORECAST OF GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS TABLE V
O'HARE FJELD
1965
Number of Operations
1965
Local 24,800
Itinerant 66,000
Total 90,J300
F. Military Operations
A forecast of military operations was developed for completeness
of space and facility planning criteria. The forecast of annual military aircraft move-
ments for 1965 was based on the median annual volume experienced from 1953 through
1956 at Chicago O'Hare Field. The forecast of a volume for 1965 equal to the present
volume of military aircraft movements is considered reasonable because the volume of
aircraft movements by military aircraft for the total United States is anticipated to
remain relatively constant for the next decade. The actual volumes will, however,
be influenced by military policy and the defense requirements of the United States.
For a given airport, the volume may vary from year to year throughout the period
depending on the decisions by the military and airport authorities. The volutne of
Military aircraft operations expected at O'Hare Field in 1965 is shown in Table VI, below.
FORECAST OF MILITARY OPERATIONS TABLE VI
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Number of Operations
1965 81,000
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350 —
300-
250
200-
09
a
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Forecast of Distribution of
Total Annual Aircraft Movements
by Type of Operator at O'Hare Field
1965
ISO-
-A_ir Carrier
lyEilitary-
Ci-vil
Exhibit IV
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Turbo-jet Turbo-prop R,eoip>roosLting
Forecast of Distribution of Total Scheduled Airline Aircraft
Movements by Type of Aircraft used at O'Hare Field
1965
Exhibit V
F. Summary
The volume of air carrier aircraft operations expected at O'Hare
Field in 1965 is summarized below by type of carrier in Table VII.
FORECAST OF TOTAL AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS TABLE VI!
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Number of Operations
Scheduled Domestic 282,300
Scheduled International and Overseas 5,000
Non -S chedu I ed 30 , 800
Total Air Carrier 318,100
G . Peak Hour Aircraft Operations
Studies were conducted to develop forecasts of median peak hour aircraft
operations at O'Hare Field in 1965. These forecasts were developed for air carrier and
total operations in the median peak hour.
Forecasts of air carrier median peak hour operations were made through studies
of the relationship between peak hour and total daily operations for air carriers.
Because of the limited air carrier activity at O'Hare Field at the present, Midway
Airport operations were considered more typical of air carrier activity at O'Hare
Field in 1965 and were used in this study.
Analysis of air carrier activity at Midway Airport indicated that the median
peak hour operations were typically 8.4% of total daily air carrier operations.
Examination of air carrier activity at other major airports indicated that this relation-
ship was reasonable for space and facility planning purposes . This relationship was
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then applied to average day air carrier operations to develop forecasts of median
peak hour air carrier operations at CHare Field in 1965. This method is presented
in more detail in Table 12 of Appendix A.
A forecast of median peak hour total aircraft operations was then de-
veloped for completeness in space and facility planning criteria. In this forecast,
since air carrier operations in 1965 at O'Hare Field are expected to be 65%of total
aircraft operations, it was considered reasonable to expect that air carrier operations
would represent 65% of total aircraft operations in the median peak hour in 1965
while General Aviation and Military operations would account for the other 35%.
As discussed previously in this Chapter, the volume of General Aviation and Military
activity that will occur at O'Hare Field will depend on the policy of airport management
concerning these types of aircraft operations.
Forecasts of air carrier and total aircraft operations in the median peak
hour at CHare Field in 1965 are shown below in Table VIII .
FORECAST OF PEAK HOUR AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS TABLE VIII
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Median Peak Hour
Aircraft Operations
1965
Air Carrier 74
Total 114
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Total
0
n
03
u
75
So
25
.A_ir Carrier"
Forecast of Distribution of Peak Hour Aircraft
Movements by Type of Aircraft used at O'Hare Field
1965
Exhibit VI
H. Helicopter Air Taxi Movements
The forecasted volume of helicopter air taxi movements is based
on the forecasted volume of helicopter air taxi passengers as shown in Table 3 of Appendix
B. Jn the developement of these forecasts, certain factors which are expected to
affect the growth of helicopter air taxi operations in the Chicago area were considered.
One important factor affecting the future growth of this type of
air traffic will be the Introduction of larger and more economical equipment. Present
developments, particularly that of the Vertoi 44 turbine-powered helicopter, shows
promise of placing this type of operation on a more economical and competitive basis.
The forecasts as developed reflect the introduction of this larger equipment in the
future.
Jt should be noted that the volume of helicopter air taxi traffic
In 1965 will be dependent upon its ability to compete with ground transportation.
While it presently has a substantial advantage over means of ground transportation in
its relatively greater speed, it is thought that the cost of operation represents the
major deterrent to the full realization of its potential traffic.
Other factors affecting the expected growth of helicopter air taxi
traffic are the institution of all-weather operations through improved navigational
equipment and the geographical expansion of the Metropolitan Chicago Area in the
forecast period .
36 -
In developing forecasts of the volume of helicopter air taxi
passengers, it was anticipated that the average seating capacity of these
helicopters used would be approximately that of the Vertol 44 and that the load
factor will be in line with present experience. The technique used in the develop-
ment of these forecasts are shown in Table 13 and 14, Appendix A. Forecasted
volumes of helicopter air taxi movements are shown In Table IX below:
FORECAST OF ANNUAL AND PEAK TABLE IX
HOUR AIR TAXI HELICOPTER OPERATIONS
O'HARE FIELD
1965
1965
Annual Operations 41,100
Peak Hour 10
-37
AIR CARGO
CHAPTER HI
INTRODUCTORY
Forecasts were developed of the volume of air cargo which can reasonably
be expected at O'Hare Field in 1965. These forecasts were developed through studies which
considered past rates of growth of air cargo traffic for the Chicago area and for the United
States as well as the expected future growth pattern for the United States. The scope of these
studies as well as the projections of future O'Hare Field air cargo traffic are subject to certain
limitations. Specifically, no exhaustive study has been made of the air cargo market potential
of the Chicago area as it is related to past traffic or its expected growth pattern in the
future. Similarly, the future quality and quantity of air cargo service to be provided by the
airlines serving Chicago has not been analyzed in detail. These limitations are considered
appropriate since the volume of air cargo traffic and the amount of air cargo space requested
is an airline planning function and will ultimately depend on airline policy. It is felt that
the forecasts as developed represent sound and reasonable levels of air cargo traffic upon
which to evaluate air cargo space requests.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT
The growth of air cargo traffic in the United States during the post war
period has been very rapid. In the period from 1948 to 1957 the volume of air cargo traffic
in the United States increased 156%. During this same period air cargo traffic in Chicago has
also increased to a considerable exten t, although at a slightly lower rate than that of the
United States. From 1948 to 1957 air cargo traffic at Chicago increased 131%. This pattern of
growth is shown in Table 15 of Appendix A.
The development of air cargo traffic to the present time has been brought
about by a growing awareness on the part of shippers of the many advantages of moving goods
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by air. Shipment by air emphasizes speed, flexibility and dependability from which many
indirect advantages also accrue. These indirect advantages include inventory control, wider
market coverage, distribution development and the reduction of distribution costs as well as
a shipping service more closely geared to changes in the shipper's market conditions .
Forecasts of volumes of air cargo traffic expected to be enplaned in
Chicago in 1965 were developed through an examination of past growth of this traffic
relative to the growth of the United States. Since, during the period from 1948 to 1957
the volume of air cargo traffic enplaned in Chicago tended to maintain a stable relationship
to the total volume enplaned in the United States, conservative forecasts of future Chicago
air cargo traffic were forecasted as increasing at the same rate of growth as that forecasted
for the United States. Volumes of air cargo traffic enplaned in Chicago expected in 1965
are shown below in Table I .
FORECAST OF AIR CARGO TRAFFJC TABLE I
CHICAGO AREA
1965
Tons Air Cargo Enplaned Chicago as a
Percent of the
Chicago United States United States
1965 201,000 1,433,000 14.0%
At the present time the distribution of air cargo traffic between the
certificated air carriers and the all-cargo air carriers is heavily in favor of the former.
Factors such as the increased cargo capacity of the coming jet equipment of the certificated
air carriers favor a distribution of air cargo traffic in their favor. Accordingly, it was con-
sidered reasonable to consider that for space planning purposes ffie distribution of total
Chicago air cargo traffic between Midway Airport and O'Hare Field would be in accordance
with the previously forecasted distribution of air passenger traffic and scheduled airline
-39-
aircraft departures between the two airports as shown in Table VI in Chapter I. This
is felt to be a reasonable basis for forecasting air cargo traffic distribution since it is
related directly to the cargo-carrying capacity of the airlines serving Chicago. The
forecasted distribution of total Chicago air cargo traffic between Midway Airport and
O'Hare Field is described below in Table II.
FORECAST OF DISTRIBUTION OF AIR CARGO TRAFFIC TABLE II
BETWEEN CHICAGO AIRPORTS
1965
Tons Air Cargo Enplaned
Amount
Percent
O'Hare Field
118,600
59.0%
Midway Airport
82,400
41.0
Total Chi
icago
Area
201,000
100.0%
Future air cargo potentials in the Chicago area will be influenced by several
factors. Among the more important of these factors are the development of more efficient
aircraft for cargo traffic, advantages to shippers in the Chicago area of having a choice
between two airports at which to ship their products with a resulting increase in
convenience, the level and the pattern of business activity in the Chicago area
particularly as it concerns those industries whose products are most efficiently shipped
by air and the growing awareness of the many advantages of air transportation of goods by
the shipping public.
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AIR MAIL
CHAPTER IV
INTRODUCTORY
Studies were conducted todevedop forecasts of the volume of Air Mail
which can reasonably be expected at 0DHare Field in 1965» The studies upon
which these forecasts were based considered past rates of growth of air mail traffic
for the Chicago area and for the United States as well as the expected future growth
pattern for the United States.,
The scope of these studies and consequently the projections based
upon them waslimited to a certain degree/ that is, the studies and projections
were based primarily upon past rates of growth relative to the United States rather
than upon a detailed and exhaustive study of the factors which may influence the
future volumes of airmail traffic in Chicago, The limitations have been introduced
because air mail space and facilities at O0Hare Field will be a planning perogative
of the United States Post Office Department „ Considering these limitations,
however, it is felt that the forecasts as developed represent sound and reasonable
volumes of airmail traffic upon which to evaluate space requests of the Post Office
Department ,
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT
The volume of air mail in the United States has increased substantially
from 1948 to 1957, The actual increase during this period has been 163%. During
this same period air mail traffic at Chicago has increased at an even greater rate.
This historical growth pattern Is shown in Table 16 of Appendix A.
-41 -
From 1948 to 1957 air mail traffic at Chicago increased 250%.
The growth in air mail traffic at Chicago and for the entire United States is
in part influenced by the mailing customs of the general public and by the policies of the
Post Office Department Air mail traffic volumes also are strongly influenced by the
population of the particular area considered. Thus a portion of the substantial increase
in air mail traffic for the Chicago Area can be attributed to the higher than average
growth of population in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Table 17 in Appendix A
indicates that the higher rate of growth in air mail traffic in Chicago as compared to the
United States is associated with a higher rate of population growth,
FORECAST OF FUTURE AIR MAIL VOLUMES - 1965
Forecasts of total air mail traffic for the entire Chicdgo Area were developed
through studies which considered the past growth rate of air mail traffic in Chicago in
relation to the rate of growth of this traffic for the United States. Based upon this
examination it was considered reasonable to develop estimates of total Chicago air mail
traffic by forecasting the growth of this traffic in Chicago. at the same rate as that forecasted
for air mail traffic for the United States. It is felt that these forecasts, while conservative
in not extending the past differential between the rates of growth for the Chicago and the
United States, represent reasonable estimates of future air mail traffic in the Chicago Area ,
since, in tfie past, air mail traffic in Chicago has increased at a rate comparable to that of
United States air mail traffic. These forecasts are shown in Table I on tne following page.
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FORECAST OF AIR MAIL TRAFFIC TABLE I
CHICAGO AREA
1965
Chicago as a
Tons Air Mail Enplaned Per Cent of the
Chicago United States United States
1965 40,000 250,000 1600%
Forecasts of the distribution of total Air Mail Traffic for the Chicago Area
between Midway Airport and O0Hare Field were based on the previously forecasted
distribution of air passenger traffic between the two airports as shown in Table VI of
Chapter I. The distribution of air passengers and aircraft operations between Midway and
O'Hare Field is felt to be an approximate, but reasonable index of the distribution of air
mail capacity of the airlines between the two airports. It is felt that, for the planning of
space and facility requirements, this method of distribution is sound and reasonable. Forecasts
of the distribution of air mail traffic between Midway Airport and O'Hare Field are shown
in Table II below.
FORECAST OF DISTRIBUTION OF AIR MAIL TRAFFIC TABLE II
BETWEEN CHICAGO AIRPORTS
1965
Tons Air Mail Enplaned
Amount
Per Cent
O'Hare Field
23,600
59.0%
Midway Airport
16,400
41.0
Total Chi
cago
Area
40,000
100.0%
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PART C - TERMINAL UTILIZATION ANALYSIS
AND FORECASTS
Chapter V - Population
Chapter VI - Automotive Vehicles
POPULATION
CHAPTER V
INTRODUCTION
This chapter considers the expected volumes of terminal population at
O'Hare Field in 1965 in order to provide pertinent space and facility planning data.
Forecasts of terminal population are presented in this chapter in the
following detail:
TRAFFIC PERIOD
Peak Air Passenger Traffic Day
Peak Visitor and Spectator Day
COMPOSITION
Air Passengers
Visitors and Spectators
Employees
FUNCTIONAL AREA
Ticket Counters
Lobby
Coffee Shop
Dining Room
Cocktail Lounge
General Merchandise
Baggage Claim
The first part of this chapter consists of a discussion of the methods used in
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developing the terminal population forecasts,, This is followed by a detailed presentation of
the forecasts.
SURVEY AND ANALYSIS METHODS
A. Introduction
The technique used to develop forecasts of future terminal population at
O'Hare Field consisted of the following major steps:
1. The determination of present median peak population of various
terminal functional areas by means of special surveys conducted at
O'Hare Field in 1957,
2„ A relation of nruedian peak population to the volume of daily air
passenger traffic during the survey period to establish, for each
functional area, a ratio of peak population per 100 daily enplaning
passengers, and
3, the application of these ratios to forecasts of air passenger traffic
to develop forecasts of median peak population at O'Hare Field in
1965.
This basic method has been employed in developing terminal population
forecasts at other major air terminals with sound and reasonable results.
Bo Terminal Population Surveys
In order to determine the relationship of terminal population to air
passenger traffic, it was necessary to conduct detailed and concurrent surveys of both
terminal population and air passenger traffic at O'Hare Field. These surveys were
conducted during a three week period in October and November in I957„ No employees
were counted in this survey of terminal population „ Forecasts of terminal population by
functional area, therefore, reflect volumes of air passengers and visitors and spectators
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only. Forecasts of employee population were developed through a separate study which is
described later in this Chapter.
Since the data obtained from these surveys would be utilized in forecasts
of terminal population volumes representative of the peak air passenger and the peak visitor
and spectator days of the week, the surveys were conducted on Fridays as the peak air
passenger day and on Sunday as the peak visitor and spectator day of the week. Surveys
were also conducted on Wednesdays, a more average day of the week, as a statistical
control for the survey.
To obtain data ^applicable to population by functional area of the terminal,
selected functional areas were surveyed independently. The functional areas considered may
be seen in the specimen copy of the form used in this survey, Exhibit I in Appendix B.
Physical counts of terminal population in each area were made every half-hour from 8:00 A.M.
to 12:00 Midnight on each survey day.
Air passenger traffic for each survey day was obtained through the
assistance of the airlines operating at O'Hare Field. Each airline recorded each flight
arriving or departing O'Hare Field by flight number, together with the exact arrival or
departure time and the number of enplaning, deplaning and through air passengers for each
flight. This information was recorded on a form such as that shown in Exhibit 2 in
Appendix B.
A special survey of employee population was conducted, determining the
total number of employees for each employer as well as peak and minimum shift population
and the number of employee cars driven to work.
Finally, gross daily revenues were obtained from the coffee shop and
dining room, cocktail lounge and general merchandise concessions at O'Hare Field for
each of the survey days.
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C. Studies and Analyses
The initial study conducted was designed to provide forecasts of terminal
population (excluding employees who are considered in a separate study) by functional area
in the terminal on the peak air traffic and the peak visitor and spectator day of the week.
Based on an examination of historical air traffic activity at CHare Field and Midway
Airport, Friday was selected as the peak air passenger day and Sunday as the peak visitor
and spectator day of the week.
Si(ice the survey period consisted of three weeks and provided data for
three Fridays and three Sundays, the median half-hourly population was determined for each
functional area for the median Friday and the median Sunday of the survey period, as well as
the median Wednesday for a control period. This technique reduced the possibility of chance
atypical survey data being introduced into the analyses. These median hourly population
volumes were used in all future analyses.
The concept of peak period terminal population selected for the purposes
of these studies was the median of the four highest hours of each median day. This level of
population is a reasonable volume for space and facility planning since it may be expected
to occur approximately four times during the day rather than at a single isolated peak moment.
Then, using the data provided by the surveys, the median peak hour
population for the median Friday was related to daily enplaned passengers for the median
Friday and median peak hour population for the median Sunday related to daily enplaned
passengers for the median Sunday. This provided, for each functional area considered,
ratios of median peak hour population per 100 daily enplaning passengers for both Friday
and Sunday.
These ratios, considered in connection with forecasts of air passenger .
-47-
traffic at O'Hare Field in 1965, would provide forecasts of terminal population in 1965. In
order that the forecasts, however, should be as useful as possible for space and facility
planning purposes, it was considered that they should relate to a traffic period higher than
the average period of the year.
This has the effect of providing a planning basis representative of traffic
periods which will be attained a number of times during the year. Extensive periods of
over-crowding of terminal facilities associated with the use of an average annual period for
a planning basis and periods of terminal under-utilization associated with absolute peak
period planning are thus avoided.
The levels of traffic selected for this planning basis were the median
Friday and the median Sunday of the peak air passenger traffic month of the year. The
median Friday traffic volume can reasonably be expected on most Fridays of the higher
air traffic months and on many Thursdays of these months. This level can also be expected
during high travel periods before and after holidays throughout the year. The median
Sunday traffic volume is typical of most Sundays during the summer months and may also be
expected during holidays and certain Saturdays during the summer months.
Through the study of historic seasonal and weekly fluctuations in air
passenger traffic it was possible to develop ratios which applied to forecasts of average
annual air passenger traffic, would expand this traffic to a level typical of the median
Friday and median Sunday of the peak air passenger traffic month. It was then possible
to relate this volume of traffic to the terminal population-air traffic relationships determined
by means of the surveys to establish reasonable and sound forecasts of terminal population.
The validity of this survey technique was verified through examination of
the results it has produced at other major airports in the United States. In addition, the
findings of the survey conducted at O 'Hare Field were compared to the findings of similar
-48-
surveys conducted at these other airports. These studies indicated that the survey "technique
could be expected to produce sound and reasonable results at O'Hare Fi eld. The other
major airports studied were:
N ew York International
N ew York LaGuardia
N ew York Newark
Boston Logan
Detroit Willow Run
St. Louis Lambert
FORECAST OF TERMINAL POPULATION - 1965
A. Peak Hour Functional Area Population
In developing forecasts of terminal population at O'Hare Field in 1965, it
was first necessary to take from Chapter I forecasts of air passenger traffic at O'Hare Field
in l965o From these annual forecasts the average annual traffic was determined and
expanded to levels typical of the median Friday and median Sunday of the peak air
passenger traffic month.
2 Having thus established the expected levels of air passenger traffic in 1965
for the median peak traffic period of the year for which traffic forecasts would be made, the
relationships between terminal population and air passenger traffic developed through the
1957 surveys at O'Hare Field were applied to this median peak period air passenger traffic
in 1965 to establish forecasts of terminal population for each functional area in 1965.
Forecasts were, therefore, developed for both the median peak air
passenger traffic day and the median peak visitor and spectator day in 1965. Thus the
forecasts developed for both days can reasonably be expected to reflect the median peak
hour occupancy of each functional area considered. Forecasts of population in each of the
„49„
functional areas considered is shown below in Table I:
FORECAST OF MEDIAN PEAK TERMINAL BUILDING TABLE I
AND AREA POPULATION
CHARE FIELD
1965
Terminal Population
Ticket Counters
People Seated - Lobby
People Standing - Lobby
General Merchandise
Total Lobby
Coffee Shop
Dining Room
Cocktail Lounge
Total Food and Drink
People Unloading
People Loading
Total Front of Terminal 160 270
Claim Baggage 250 340
Total Terminal 3,520 4,310
Median Friday
Median Sunday
360
410
760
770
430
770
120
200
1,670
2,150
560
620
530
570
350
360
1,440
1,550
80
150
.80
120
Bo Employees -
As discussed previously in this section, a survey was made in 1957 of the
number of terminal building and area employees at 0"Hare Field by shift and location.
-50-
25
Forecast of Distribution of O'Hare Field Median Peak Hour
Terminal Population by Area for Median Friday and Median
Sunday of Peak Air Passenger Month
1965
M
a
u
K
0
Z
3
X
0
•H
eg
i-H
3
a
o
TOta.1 LoloToy
Tiolcet Counters
People Seated --Lioo'by
People Standing- Lobby
General Merchandise
Totctl Food. <& DrinX
Coffee Shop
Dining Room
Cocktail Lounge
Claim Baggage
VII
This present number of employees was fhen related to thenumber of annual enplaning
passengers at O'Hare Field in 1957 to develop a ratio of employees per 100 annual
enplaning passengerso Studies at other major air terminals indicated that as the number
of annual enplaning passengers increased, the number of employees increased also but at a
slower rate- That is, as the volume of air passenger traffic increases the ratio of employees
per 100 annual enplaning passengers declines , Drawing on the experience of these other
air terminals, with particular emphasis given to Chicago Midway Airport, a decline in » '
employees per 100 annual enplaning passengers from 1957 to 1965 was forecasted for
Chicago O'Hare Field .
By relating this forecasted ratio of employees per 100 enplaning passengers
in 1965 to the 1965 forecasts of enplaning passengers at Chicago O'Hare Field, forecasts
of total 1965 terminal building and area employees were developed. In the 1957 survey
of employees at O'Hare Field it was found that approximately 50% of the total employees
presently work on the peak shift* Accordingly, for space! planning purposes, approximately
50% of the forecasted 1965 employees were considered to be representative of the peak shift
in 1965.
The forecasts of terminal building and area employee population at O'Hare
Field in 1965 are shown below in Table II.
FORECAST OF DAILY TERMINAL BUILDING AND TABLE II
AREA EMPLOYEE POPULATION
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Total Employees 5,700
Peak Shift Employees 2,700
-51 -
AUTOMOTIVE VEHICLES
CHAPTER VI
INTRODUCTION
This chapter considers the expected traffic flow of automotive vehicles
and the median peak inventories of vehicles by types at O'Hare Field in 19(55. The
daily flow of traffic on the median Friday and the median Sunday of the peak air
passenger traffic month is considered according to the following types of vehicles:
Private Automobiles
Taxis
Airport Limousines
Trucks
The median peak hour inventories of the following types of vehicles for
which parking areas will be required are forecasted for the median Friday and the median
Sunday of the peak air passenger traffic month in 1965.
Private Automobiles
General Public
Employees
Taxis
Airport Limousines
Rental Automobiles
As was discussed in connection with forecasts of terminal building population,
the median peak hour used in automotive vehicles forecast consists of the median of the
four highest hours of the day. The planning basis employed, the median Friday and the
median Sunday is the same as that employed in the development of terminal population
forecasts and discussed in detail in Chapter V.
-52-
.:
C
t
[
„
The first stage of this chapter presents the survey and analysis methods
used in these automotive vehicle studies. This is followed by a discussion of the development
of automotive vehicle traffic flow and inventory forecasts for O'Hare Field in 1965.
SURVEY AND ANALYSIS METHODS
A. Automotive Traffic Flow
Studies were conducted to establish forecasts of the reasonable level of
automotive traffic which could be expected at O'Hare Field ?n 1965. These studies consisted
of the following major steps:
1 . A determination of the number of air passengers, visitors and
spectators and employees at O'Hare Field on the median peak Friday and
median Sunday of the peak air passenger month in 1965.,
2. Establishing for each class of terminal population, the average number of
people who will utilize each of the different types of ground transportation
facilities.
3. Establishing for each type of ground transportation facility, the average
number of people per vehicle.
In the first major step of this study, the terminal population for the median
Friday and median Sunday of the peak air passenger month in 1965 was established by type of
population as follows:
1 . Air Passengers - forecasts of air passengers at O'Hare Field have been
developed previously in Chapter 1 of this report and were used in
this study. Originating and terminating passengers
-53 -
were considered separately.
2. Visitors and Spectators - the number of visitors and spectators expected
at CHare Field was determined through the relationship of this type
of terminal population to air passenger traffic based on studies of other
major air terminals in the United States. These studies indicated a stable
relationship between air passenger traffic and the volume of visitors
and spectators.
3. Employees - employee population at CHare Field in 1965 has been
developed previously as discussed in Chapter V of this report.
These forecasts of average terminal population in 1965 were then expanded to
levels corresponding to the median Friday and median Sunday of the peak air passenger month in
1965. This expansion was based on the historic relationship between these peak month median
traffic periods and average annual periods as was considered in detail in connection with
forecasts of terminal population in Chapter V. Forecasts of employee population is not
expected to vary seasonally with variations in the volume of air passenger traffic.
It was then necessary to distribute the total terminal population according
to the type of ground transportation that would be used,, This was done for each of the
different types of terminal population.
Air Passengers - based on a study of ground transportation facilities used by
originating and terminating air passengers at Chicago Midway Airport in 1955 and analysis
of present trends in ground transportation use, effect of geographic location of O'Hare
Field and other factors, estimates were made of the expected use of various ground
transportation facilities by originating and terminating air passengers at CHare Field in 1965.
-54-
L
I
r
c
c
[
:
r
These estimates are shown in Table 3, Appendix B.
Visitors and Spectators - studies conducted at other major air terminals
indicate that, almost without exception, visitors and spectators use private automobiles
as ground transportation to and from the terminal . Accordingly, this pattern was
considered to be representative of O'Hare Field in 1965.
Employees - similar studies have indicated that employees also use private
automobiles almost exclusively. These findings are particularly applicable to Chicago
O'Hare because of its location away from the hub of mass transit facilities.
Having established the type of ground transportation that would be used by
each element of terminal population, it was necessary to determine the number of people
per vehicle for each type of vehicle in order to determine the expected number of
vehicle movements. Since each class of terminal population has different characteristics
in their use of ground transportation, each was considered separately.
Air Passengers - for those air passengers using private automobiles as ground
transportation, studies of ground transportation at other United States terminals indicates
that a loading of 1 .25 passengers per automobile is reasonble for planning purposes. In
the use of taxi cabs , a loading of 1 .00 passengers per vehicle was adopted on the same
basis. Studies of limousine load factors developed at Chicago O'Hare, Chicago Midway
and other major United States air terminals, as well as an appraisal of a trend toward the
use of larger and more efficient equipment as it is developed, indicate that for 1965, an
estimated loading of 18 persons per vehicle is reasonable for planning purposes. This
loading stakes into account the peak air traffic period to which these estimates correspond
-55-
Visitors and Spectators - as discussed above, this segment of terminal
population is expected to use private automobiles exclusively o Separate loadings were
developed for the median Friday and the median Sunday of the peak month because of the
family characteristics of the weekend visitor and spectator . For Friday a loading of 2.4
persons per auto was used while that of 3.0 persons per auto was used for Sunday.
Employees - also as discussed previously, employees are expected to use
private automobiles exclusively. Corresponding to the experience of other major air
terminals, in the United States a loading of 1 .0 persons per auto was considered reasonable for
planning purposes for this element of terminal population „
The number of air passengers, visitors and spectators and employees was
divided by the number of persons per vehicle to develop forecasts of the number of vehicles.
For private automobiles, this figure was doubled to reflect two-way movements. In the case
of taxicabs and limousines, the figure was not doubled since these vehicles are expected to
carry passengers in both directions.
Estimated truck traffic at Chicago CHare in 1965 was developed through
the study of the present truck movements related to air traffic both at CHare and Midway
Airport. The experience of other major terminals was also examined to confirm the
reasonableness of forecasts.
B. Automotive Vehicle Inventories
The first step in the studies of future automotive traffic at 0JHare Field
in 1965 was detailed study of present automotive traffic as is related to the present
-56-
volume of air passenger traffic af O'Hare Field. At the same time the surveys of daily
air passenger traffic were being conducted in October and November of 1957, surveys of
the automotive inventories were made. Forms such as those used in these surveys are
shown in Exhibits 3, 4 and 5 in Appendix B.
Based upon these surveys, the relationship between the median peak hour
inventory of each type of vehicle studied and the volume of daily air passenger traffic
was determined for the median Friday and the median Sunday of the survey period. The
median peak hour, as discussed in connection with forecasts of terminal population in
Chapter V, consisted of the median of the four highest hours of the day. Also similar to
the technique employed in Chapter V, the hourly inventory for each of the three Fridayi
and three Sundays of the survey period were combined to establish a median hourly
i nventory for a median Friday and a median Sunday. The median peak vehicle inventories
determined by this survey and the ratios of median peak vehicle inventories per 100
enplaning passengers are shown In Table 4 and 5 of Appendix B.
FORECAST OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC VOLUMES - 1965
A. Automotive Traffic Flow
Having determined the terminal population by type for the median Friday and
median Sunday of the peak air passenger traffic month in 1965, the distribution of this
terminal population according to the type of vehicle they could be expected to use,
and the number of persons per vehicle for each type of vehicle and each type of terminal
population, it was possible to develop forecasts of the number of daily vehicle movements
expected at O'Hare Field in 1965. These forecasts are shown below in Table II.
-57 -
FORECAST OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC MOVEMENTS
TABLE
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Daily Vehicle Movements
Median Fr
day
Median Sunday
45,380
50,520
6,500
6,350
160
140
990
990
53,030
64,560
Private Automobile
Taxi
Airport Limousine
Truck
Total
In order to confirm the reasonableness of these forecasts of daily
vehicular traffic movements at O'Hare Field, they were compared with traffic movements
at other major air terminals, specifically the following:
Detroit Willow Run
Boston Logan International
New York International
New York LaGuardia
New York Newark
It was found that the forecasts as developed represented sound and reason-
able levels of vehicular traffic, giving consideration to the expected level of air passenger
traffic at O'Hare Field in 1965.
B. Automotive Vehicle Inventories
Forecasts of median peak hour inventories were developed for the
following types of vehicles:
-58-
Private Automobiles
General Public
Employees
Taxis
Airport Limousines
Rental Automobiles
General Public Parking - Forecasts of the volume of general public parking at O'Hare Field
in 1965 were developed through a study which consisted of the following major steps:
1 . The level of present daily vehicle movements at O'Hare
Field was related to the present daily volume of air
passenger traffic to establish a ratio of movements per
100 daily enplaning passengers. A comparison of this
ratio with similar ratfos experienced at such major airports
as Detroit Willow Run, Boston Logan International, and
New York International, LaGuardia and Newark indicated
that it was of a reasonable level . This ratio was then
applied to forecasts of enplaning passengers for the
median Friday and median Sunday in 1965 to establish
the number of expected vehicle movements at O'Hare
Field in 1965 for the median Friday and Sunday.
-59
2. Detailed studies mdple at these other major air terminals
indicated that stable relationships existed between the number
of daily vehicle movements and the number of automobiles
entering the general public parking lot daily. Based upon
these studies, a median ratio of 10 vehicles entering the parking
lot per 100 daily vehicle movements was established. This
ratio was then applied to forecasts of vehicle movements
at O'Hare Field to develop forecasts of the number of
vehicles entering the paid parking lot.
3. These studies of other major air terminals discussed above
also indicated a stable relationship between the number
of vehicles entering the paid parking lot and the peak
inventory of vehicles that the lot experienced. A ratio
typical of these other terminals was applied to the number
of vehicles entering the parking lot at O'Hare Field, as
forecasted above, to obtain estimates of the median peak
inventory of vehicles for the median Friday and Sunday of
the peak air passenger traffic month in 1965.
Employee Parking - Forecasts of parking facilities necessary to accommodate terminal building
and area employees at O'Hare Field in 1965 were based on the forecasts of employee popu-
lation developed in a previous section of this report and the employee parking experience of
other major airports.
-60-
Data gathered from the 1957 surveys of employee population at O'Hare
Field indicated that at the present time very nearly all employees drive to work. These
survey findings are not considered unreasonable in view of the location of O'Hare Field
relative to population concentrations and mass transit hubs in the Chicago area, Thus for
space planning purposes it was considered reasonable to expect that the number of employees
on the peak shift in 1965 would be representative of the peak employee parking space
requirements in 1965 at O'Hare Field.
Taxi Inventory - Forecasts of the median peak inventory of taxi cabs at O'Hare Field in
1965 were developed through an analysis of expected air passenger traffic flow in and out
of the terminal during the median Friday and Sunday of the peak month in 1957. In this
study the number of deplaning passengers expected to use taxicabs was subtracted from the
number of enplaning passengers who are expected to arrive at the terminal in taxicabs to
determine the expected inventory of taxicabs at the terminal building. For an appropriate
forecast of the taxicab inventory at O'Hare Field in 1965 the median of the four peak inven-
tories was selected as the final forecast .
Umousfne Inventory *• Forecasts of the median peak limousine inventory at O'Hare Field in
1965 were developed through the following analysis:
1 . Present inventory of limousine was related to
present air passenger traffic, both as determined
through the 1957 surveys at O'Hare Field.
2. This relationship was applied to forecasts of air
passenger traffic in 1965 to develop initial estimates
of limousine inventory in 1965.
-61
3. The changed pattern of limousine operations
expected by 1965, a result of an increase in
average vehicle size, is expected to result in a
higher number of passengers per vehicle. This
trend was considered in the development of
limousine inventory forecasts.
These forecasts also consider the possible effect of the following factors
on limousine operations at CHare Field in 1965:
1 . Limousine operations have tended to decrease
relative to other means of transportation for air
passengers and may be expected to continue this
2. International and Overseas air passenger traffic
on the other hand will tend to increase the use of
limousines by air passengers.
Rental Car inventory - Forecasts of the peak number of rental cars expected at O'Hare Field in
1965 were established by a study which considered the present experienced volumes of rental
cars as they related to the volume of air passenger traffic at O'Hare Field. Having thus de-
termined a relationship between rental car inventory and air passenger traffic, this relation-
ship was applied to forecasts of air passenger traffic for the median peak Friday and Sunday
of the peak air passenger month in 1965 to establish forecasts of rental car inventory at O'Hare
Field typical of this same period of the year. These forecasts of rental car inventory as thus
developed were then compared to estimates made by the rental car organization now operating
at O'Hare Field and were found to be essentially similar. The extremely rapid rate of growth
of rental car usage in past years was considered in the development of these forecasts.
- 62 -
:
:
:
:
Vehicles In Loading and Unloading Area
Forecast of the vehicle Inventories that can be expected in loading and
unloading areas of the terminal at O'Hare Field in 1965 were developed through the following
study:
1 . The median peak volumes of vehicles in both the loading and
unloading areas were determined through the 1957surveys at O'Hare
Field;,
2. These median peak volumes were related to the volume of air passenger
traffic during the survey period to establish ratios of peak vehicle
Inventories per 100 daily enplaning passengers;
3o These ratios were applied to forecasts of daily enplaning passengers for
the median peak Friday and Sunday at O'Haire Field in 1965 to develop
forecasts of median peak vehicle inventory in both loading and unloading
areas of the CHatre Field terminal In 1965 .
Forecasts of median peak ground transportation inventories at O'Hare Field
in 1965 are shown for the median peak Friday and Sunday in Table 1 below.
-63
FORECASTS OF PEAK GROUND TRANSPORTATION INVENTORIES TABLE
O'HARE FIELD
1965
ng
Area
Ground Transportation
Inventories
Median
Friday
Median Sunday
Vehicles in Unload!
40
30
Vehicles in Loading
Ai
rea
40
45
Paid Parking
5,300
5,800
Employee Parking
2,700
-
Taxi cabs
110
60
Limousines
20
20
Rental Cars
310
250
-64-
sooo
Forecast
of Automotive Vehicle Inventories at O'Hare Field
by Type of Vehicle for Median Friday and Median
Sunday of Peak Air Passenger Month in 1965
3750
itl
t
0
§2SOO-
►
M
o
i-H
o
•H
Q
>
tzso
938
625
312
ID
Paid. Parking
Employee
Parking
Taxioaos
I_iim.oiasin.es Rental Cars
-Fridsi-y-
J Siancla-y
Exhibit Mm
"
"
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:
-
50
45
40
35
30
a
0
15
IO
:Fricla.y-
Sunday
Private
Automobiles
Taxicabs
Limousines
Tnaolc
Forecast of Automotive Traffic Movements at O'Hare Field
by Type of Vehicle for Median Friday and Median
Sunday of Peak Air Passenger Month in 1965
Exhibit IX
PART D - CONCESSION REVENUE STUDIES AND
FORECASTS
Chapter VI I - Annual Gross Revenues
ANNUAL GROSS REVENUE
CHAPTER VII
INTRODUCTION
Forecasts of annual gross revenue were developed for those concessions at
O'Hare Field in 1965 whose space requirements could be expected to be a function of
the amount of gross revenue available. The following concessions were studied:
Coffee Shop and Dining Room
Cocktail Lounge
General Merchandise
Game Room
Toilets
Forecasts of annua! gross revenue for these concessions were developed
through a study consisting of these major steps:
1 . the determination of reasonable levels of gross concession revenue per
enplaning passenger, and
2. the application of these levels of gross revenue per enplaning passenger
to forecasts of air passenger traffic at O'Hare Field in 1965,
The first section of this chapter consists of a discussion of the determination
of reasonable levels of gross revenue per enplaning passenger for the concessions studied.
A later section will describe the forecast methods and present forecasts of annual gross
revenue of the concessions studied at O'Hare Field in 1965.
-65 -
FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS
In the development of reasonable levels of annual gross revenues for the
concessions considered, the following factors were evaluated:
1 . Concession revenue at O0Hare Field - gross concession revenue at
OfiHare Field in 1956 was studied in relation to the volume of air
passenger traffic. Present space and facility limitations as well as the
effect of a limited pattern of air passenger traffic at O'Hare Field
were considered in studying this data. Detail of this gross concession
revenue experience at OffHare Field in 1956 is presented in Appendix C
2. Concession revenue at Midway Airport - the revenue experience of
comparable concessions at Midway Airport was examined. The effect
on revenues of factors such as the over-crowded conditions existing at
Midway Airport were appraised.
30 Concession revenue at Other Major Airports - gross concession revenue
related to air passenger traffic at other major airports for concessions
comparable to those studied for 0°Hare Field in 1965 was examined ,
Typical ratios of gross concession revenue per enplaning passenger were
determined.
4. Local market factors - the location of O'Hare Field relative to high
population or income areas of Chicago, its proximity to blighted or
marginal economic areas, and the present and future possibilities of
competition from other business activities was considered.
-66 -
FORECASTS OF ANNUAL GROSS REVENUES
Based on an evaluation of forecast criteria outlined above, ratios of
concession revenue per enplaning passenger for the concessions studied were developed,
Forecasts of annual gross revenue for these concessions were developed by applying
the ratios of gross revenue per enplaning passenger to forecasts of enplaning passenger
to forecasts of enplaning passengers developed in Chapter I of this report. The detail
of this method is shown in Table 1 of Appendix Co These forecasts are considered
reasonable for space and facility planning purposes since they are based on ratios of
gross revenue per enplaning passenger typical of major airports in the United States.
Forecasts of annual gross revenue expected to be available to the concessions studied
are shown in Table I below.
FORECASTS OF ANNUAL GROSS REVENUE
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Concession
Dining Room and Coffee Shop
Cocktail Lounge
General Merchandise
Game Room
Toilets
TABLE I
1965
Annual Gross Revenue
$5,142,500
3,085,500
2,571,300
154,300
102,900
As a check of the reliability of these forecasts, the following study was
-67
+
_
.
-
conducted:
1 . During the 1957 surveys at CVHare Field, the median peak hour
population of the dining room and coffee shop, cocktail lounge and
general merchandise area was related to daily gross revenues of each
concession »
2o Estimates of daily gross revenue corresponding to the median Friday were
developed from the forecasts of annual gross revenue for each concession
as described in this Chapter .
3. The ratio of daily gross revenue per median peak hour population
established in * 1 above was applied to estimates of daily gross revenues
as developed in * 2 above to obtain independent estimates of median peak
hour population in the concessions studied.
By the comparison of these population estimates with the forecasts developed
as described in Chapter V of this report, an evaluation of concession annual gross revenue
forecasts could be made. As shown in Table II below, the two independent estimates of
median peak hour population are closely comparable . The development of these concession
estimates of median peak hour population is described in Table 2 of Appendix C.
-68-
c
c
c
1
:
FORECASTS COMPARED TO REVENUE ESTIMATES TABLE II
OF PEAK HOUR CONCESSION OCCUPANCY
O'HARE FIELD
1965
1965
Median Peak Concession Occupancy
Forecasts Revenue Estimates
Dining Room and
Coffee Shop 970
1,010
Cocktail Lounge 350
380
General Merchandise Area 120
140
-69
APPENDIX A - AIR TRAFFIC
POPULATION GROWTH APPENDIX A
CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE UNITED STATES TABLE I
194 7-1957
United States
Chicago Metr
Number
opolitan Area
Number
(000)
Index
(000)
Index
1948
143,796.4
100
4,920.9
100
1949
146,496.3
102
5f]46J
105
1950
149,105.5
104
5,261.3
107
1951
152,311.4
106
5,545.1
113
1952
154,926.6
108
5,630.7
114
1953
157,161.3
109
5,664.5
115
1954
160,019.7
111
5,760.6
117
1955
162,566.4
113
5,850.5
119
1956
165,811.5
115
6,150.9
125
1957
168,805.3
117
6,183.0
126
Source; Sales Management
Survey of Buying Power
1948-1957
-70 -
c
£
c
c
L
c
F
APPENDIX A
TABLE 2
COMPARATIVE INCOME DISTRIBUTION
CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA, ILLINOIS AND THE UNITED STATES
1956
Per Cent of Spending Units
Income Group
Chicago
Metropolitian Area
Illinois
United States
$10,000 and over
9.5%
7.8%
5.6%
$ 7,000 to $9,999
14 o 8%
12.5%
9.5%
$ 4,000 to $6,999
37.8%
35.6%
31.4%
$ 2,500 to $3,999
20.2%
22.5%
25.4%
$0 to $2,499
17.7%
21.6%
28.1%
Total
100.0%
100%
100%
Source : Column ( 1 ) Sales Management Survey of Buying Power,
May 10, 1956
( 2 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 3 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
- 71 -
i:
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:
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WHOLESALE SALES RELATED TO POPULATION APPENDIX A
TABLE 3
CHICAGO AND FOUR SELECTED CITIES *
1954
Metropolitan
Wholesale
Wholesale
Sales
Area
Sales
Per Capita
Population
1954
1954
1954
City
000
Number
(3)
Rank
(1)
(2)
(4)
New York
13,680,000
$48,459,041
«p O, 0*K/
1
CHICAGO
5,760,600
17,052,173
2,960
2
Los Angeles
4,990,800
5,519,331
1,180
5
Philadelphia
3,909,000
7,095,067
1,810
4
Detroit
3,336,100
7,409,930
2,220
3
''Cities which, with Chicago, are the four largest metropolitan areas in population
Source: Column (1) Sales Management, Survey of Buying Power.
(2) U. S. Dept. of Commerce. Census of Business, 1954, Vol. IV
(3) Col (2) -r Col (1)
(4) Rank order of Col (3)
-72-
APPENDIX A
TECHNICAL NOTES - FORECASTS OF AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC
As was discussed in Chapter I of this report in connection .with
the distribution! of air passengers between airports, air passenger potential
was measured and distributed geographically in the Chicago area. The
effect of airport location on the realization of this potential was also discussed.
These notes are concerned with the measurement of the
increased realization of air passenger potential and consequently the
increased air passenger traffic that would result from the addition of O" Hare to
the Chicago airport system as a fully developed airport.
Through the measurement of air passenger potential of the Chicago
area in relation to Midway Airport, the percent of total air passenger potential
in 1965 that would be realized by Midway Airport alone was determined.
This percent of potential was related to forecasted 1965 air passenger traffic
for only Midway Airport. This was done for both locally and non^ locally
generated air traffic.
The 1965 air passenger potential was then studied in connection
with both Midway and O "Hare. Field, assigning the air passenger potential realized
for each Census Tract to the nearest airport. Since two airports result in a reduction
in airport distance for part of the Chicago area population, an increase in the
percent of air passenger potential realized results.
This percentage increase in the volume of air passenger potential
realized was then applied to forecasts of Chicago air passenger traffic in
1965 based on adequate air service at Midway alone.
The resulting increased volume of air passenger traffic represents forecasts
of Chicago air passenger traffic expected to result from the provision of adequate air
service at both Midway Airport and O'Hare Field in 1965.
-74-
1
I
1
]
1
I
>
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL AND MILITARY
AIRCRAFT TRAFFIC
1954 - 1957
1954
1955
1956
1957
APPENDIX A
TABLE 4
Military
Civil
Local and Itinerant
Local
Itinerant
Total
73,038
16,176
21,847
38,023
85,333
19,748
27,301
47,049
71,966
17,684
33,068
50,752
88,555
21 , 348
42,359
63,707
Source: CAA Control Tower Records, Chicago O'Hare Field
-75-
CHICAGO AND THE UNITED STATES
TABLE 5
1948-1957
Enplaned Domestic
Chicago
(O
Air Passengers
United States
(2)
Chicago as a
Per Cent of
the United States
(3)
1948
991,857*
13,060,372
7.59%
1949
1,168,294
14,732,687
7.93
1950
1,437,416
16,937,018
8.49
1951
1,848,065
21,895,612
8.44
1952
2,112,595*
24,350,307
8.68
1953
2,650,415
28,004,269
9.46
1954
3,045,167
31,657,852
9.62
1955
3,603,278
37,226,432
9.68
1956
3,963,789
40,752,563
9.73
1957
4,031,234
44,017,548
9,16
* Gotch and Crawford, Airline Station Analyses
Source: Column (1 ) U. S. Department of Commerce, Air Commerce Traffic Pattern
( 2 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 3 ) Column ( 1 ) -rCoIumn ( 2 )
-76-
L
:
-
TECHNICAL NOTES - FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL APPENDIX A
AND OVERSEAS AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC
These notes describe in detail the three methods used to develop independent
estimates of international and overseas air passenger potential in the Chicago area.
In the first method the proportion of total United States domestic air
passenger traffic that is developed in the Chicago area was examined. To establish an
estimate of international and overseas air passenger potential in the Chicago area it was
considered that Chicago would develop the same proportion of total United States
international and overseas air passenger traffic as it has historically developed in relation
to total United States domestic air passenger traffic. This detailed analysis is presented
below:
ESTIMATE OF INTERNATIONAL AND OVERSEAS AIR PASSENGER POTENTIAL
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
1956
A. Domestic Enplaned Passengers
United States 1956 40,752,563
B. Chicago Enplaned Domestic
Air Passengers 1956 3,963,789
C. Chicago Enplaned Passengers
as % of United States 1956 9.73%
D. International and Overseas Air Passengers
Enplaned by United States Flag C rriers at
Continental and United Station Station, 1956 1,167,272
E. Estimated Chicago Enplaned International
and Overseas Passengers 1956 113,600
Source: Line A - United Spates Department of Commerce - Air Commerce Traffic Pattern, 1956
B - Same as Line A
C - Line B - Line A
D - Same as Line A
E - Line D x Line C
-77 -
In the second method through surveys conducted by the Civil Aeronautics Board,
the number of international and overseas air passengers who begin or end air trips in the
Chicago area was established „ The median relationship for these other communities was
applied to the historic volume of international and overseas air passengers originating or
terminating in Chicago to develop an estimate of international and overseas air passenger
potential in the Chicago area. The detailed steps of this study are shown below:
ESTIMATES OF INTERNATIONAL AND OVERSEAS AIR PASSENGER POTENTIAL
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
1956
Intl & O0seas
Int's & O'seas
lnt'1 & O'seas
O & D Pass . as
Q&D
Enpl .
Enpl . & Depl .
% of Enpl. &
Air Passengers
Air Passengers
Air Passengers
Depl . Pass.
1956
(1)
1956
(2)
1956
1956
(3)
(4)
Los Angeles
140,448
64,404
128,808
109%
San Francisco
131,448
71,092
142,184
92
Miami
380,814
314,383
628,766
61
New Orleans
32,250
26,206
52,412
62
Boston
101,226
15,992
31,984
316
New York
979,902
431,511
863,022
114
Houston
31,860
27,250
54,500
58
Seattle
143,832
98,848
197,696
73
Medi
an
62%
Chicago
122,332
98,700
197,300
62%
Source: Column ( 1 )
(2)
(3)
(4)
Chicago
Column (
2.)
3)
4)
CAB Airline Revenue Passenger Survey, International 1956 as
expanded on AppendixSheet * 1
U. S. Department of Commerce, Air Commerce Traffic Pattern, 1956
Column ( 2 ) x 2
Column ( 1 ) f Column ( 3 )
Same as Column ( 1 ) above
Column ( 3 ) r 2
Column ( 1 ) -j Column ( 4 )
Median of Column ( 4 ) above
78>-
Finally in the third method, an extensive survey of international and overseas air
passengers at New York International Airport conducted by the Port of New York
Authority, was examined „ Through this survey the number of international and overseas
air passengers residing in both the immediate Chicago area and the surrounding region
in the United States which international air service at Chicago could be reasonably
expected to serve was determined. 8t was found that this represented 8% of all
international and overseas air passengers at New York International Airport. It was then
considered that if the Chicago area and surrounding region would develop 8% of
international and overseas air passengers departing through New York International Airport,
it was not unreasonable to consider that a similar proportion of traffic departing from other
International Airports would also be residents of the Chicago area and surrounding region.
Accordingly, 8% of total United States international and overseas air passenger traffic was
considered to be a reasonable estimate of Jne international and overseas air traffic potential
in the Chicago area. The techniques involved in the development of this estimate are
shown on the following page.
-79-
ESTIMATE OF INTERNATIONAL AND OVERSEAS AIR PASSENGER POTENTIAL
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
1956
1 . Total Port of New York Authority Survey Trans-
Atlantic Air Passengers 1956 218,700
2. Port of New York Authority Survey Trans-Atlantic
Air Passengers who began trip in Chicago 13,800
3. One-half of Port of New York Authority Trans-
Atlantic Air Passengers who began trip in
E. North Central United States , 6,700
4. Total Port of New York Authority Survey Bermuda and
Latin America Air Passengers 1956 106,600
5. Port of New York Authority Survey Bermuda and Latin
American Air Passengers who began trip in Chicago 2,600
6. One-half of Port of New York Authority Survey
Bermuda and Latin American Air Passengers who began
trip in E„ North Central United States 2,000
7. Total Port of New York Authority Survey Air
Passengers, Trans-Atlantic and Bermuda 325,300
8. Port of New York Authority Survey *ASr Passengers
who began trip in E. North Central United States 25,100
9. Chicago and one-half E. North Central as a per cent
of total Port of New York Authority Passengers 8%
1 0. Total United States International and Oversea^ 1,167,272
Enplaning Air Passengers 1956
1 1 . Estimate of Chicago International and Overseas
Enplaning Air Passengers 1956 93,400
-80-
AIRLINE PAIRS - INTERLINE CONNECTING PASSENGERS APPENDIX A
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS TABLE 6
1954, 1955 and 1956
Interline Connecting Passengers Exchanged
1956
1955
1954
Airline Pair
Number
Rank
Number
Rank
Number
Rank
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
AA UA
106,848
1
87,102
1
83,868
1
UA TW
75,216
2
75,306
2
73,638
2
UA EA
64,518
3
42,756
6
41,970
4
AA NO
62,226
4
38,808
7
31,980
9
AA TW
60,990
5
59,748
3
61,806
3
EA NW
59,580
6
46,254
5
33,480
7
UA NO
53,160
7
32,754
10
27,312
12
UA DL
52,362
8
46,878
4
41,442
5
EA NO
48,252
9
25,128
15
15,936
21
UA CL
45,696
10
29,268
12
35,928
6
AA NW
43,806
11
36,060_
8
31,296
10
NW TW
41,394
12
28,584
13
26,202
13
NO TW
40,884
13
26,724
14
24,306
15
DL NW
40,620
14
35,712
9
31,986
8
DL NO
36,402
15
23,604
16
18,822
19
AA CL
34,242
16
22,488
17
23,850
16
UA NW
33,648
17*
30,15Q
11
23,628
17
AA OZ
33,648
17*
18,312
21
6,900
30
CL TW
31,440
19
20,190
18
29,880
11
UA OZ
23,106
20
13,050
27
5,814
31
CL NW
22,116
21
10,992
31
9,072
29
AA DL
21,810
22
19,464
20
14,868
25
UA BN
21,102
23
17,304
22
20,274
18
AA BN
20,364
24
19,548
19
26,160
14
BN CL
19,386
25
11,100
30
15,738
22
EA TW
18,750
26
14,346
26
15,282
23
DL TW
18,702
27
17,238
23
14,964
24
CL NO
17,964
28
6,084
33
3,630
35
CL EA
17,556
29
12,198
29
9,636
28
CL DL
17,040
30
14,706
25
13,896
26
CL OZ
16,374
31
5,094
35
2,760
37
AA EA
15,898
32
12,438
28
9,804
27
BN TW
15,228
33
15,486
24
17,190
20
OZ TW
14,622
34
8,682
32
3,636
34
BN NO
13,410
35
5,604
34
4,614
32
-81 -
AIRLINE PAIRS - INTERLINE CONNECTING PASSENGERS
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
1954, 1955 and 1956
APPENDIX A
TABLE 6
ine Pair
Infer!
ine Connecting
Passengers Exch
anged
1956
1955
1954
Air!
Number
(2)
Rank
13T
Number
Rank
(5)
Number
(6)
Rank
""TO7
(7)
EA
oz
8,616
36
3,498
40
708
44
UA
LC
6,258
37
4,638
37
2,064
40
NO
oz
5,874
38
2,022
45
858
43
AA
LC
5,694
39
4,800
36
1,734
41
DL
oz
5,466
40
2,760
42
474
47
NW
OZ
5,448
41
3,834
39
2,262
39
NO
NW
4,716
42
1,644
48
438
48
LC
TW
4,074
43
2,598
43
1,308
42
BN
EA
3,324
U
4,320
38
4,218
33
LC
NO
3,234
45
1,692
47
510
46
BN
NW
3,144
46
2,364
44
2,712
38
CL
LC
2,838
47
960
50
246
52
BN
DL
2,514
48
2,832
41
3,600
36
LC
NW
2,166
49
2,004
46
612
45
BN
OZ
1,938
50
1,026
49
324
49
LC
OZ
1,170
51
258
iJ*r
24
55
BN
LC
780
52
522
51
300
51
EA
LC
666
53
240
55
168
54
DL
EA
402
54
294
52
312
50
DL
LC
342
55
282
53
198
53
*More than one pair share this rank.
Source: Columns 1 , 2, 4, 6, Special Civil Aeronautics Board Tabulation of
Chicago Interline Connecting Passengers
March and September, 1954, 1 955 and 1956
Columns 3, 5, 7, Rank Order of Columns 2, 4 and 6
82
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-84-
HISTORICAL GROWTH OF SCHEDULED DOMESTIC AIRLINE
AIRCRAFT DEPARTURES
CHICAGO AND THE UNITED STATES
1948- 1956
APPENDIX A
TABLE 8
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
195a
1954
1955
1956
1957
Scheduled Domestic Departures
Chicago as
Chicago
0)
United States
(2)
a % of the
United States
(3)
65,943*
1,861,199
3.54%
74,226
2,023,702
3.67
76,695
2,137,294
3.59
86,451
2,319,143
373
97,883 *
2,431,633
4.03
116,299
2,612,767
4.45
121,301
2,660,579
4.56
140,943
2,901,758
4.86
155,129
3,094,075
5.01
166,242
3,318,282
5.00
*Gotch and Crawford, Airline Station Analyses
Source: Column (1) U* S. Dept. of Commerce, Air Commerce Traffic
(2) Same as Col (1)
(3) Col (l) + CoI (2)
-85-
HISTORICAL PATTERN OF ENPLANING LOAD FACTORS
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
1948- 1956
APPENDIX A
TABLE 9
Scheduled
Airline
Departure
(1)
Average
Seats per
Aircraft
(2)
Total
Departing
Seats
(3)
Enplaning
Passengers
(4)
Enplaning
Passenger
Load Factor
(5)
1948*
65,943*
32.37
2,134,575
991,857
46.47
1949
74,336
35.03
2,600,137
1,168,294
44.93
1950
76,695
37.47
2,873,762
1,437,416
50.02
1951
86,451
39.55
3,419,137
1,848,065
54.05
1952
97,883*
42.71
4,180,583
2,112,595
50.53
1953
116,299
46.07
5,357,895
2,650,415
49.47
1954
121,301
50.07
6,073,541
3,045,167
50.14
1955
140,943
51.60
7,272,659
3,603,278
49.55
1956
155,129
52.43
8,133,413
3,963,789
48.73
* Gotch and Crawford, Airline Station Analyses
Source: Column (1 ) U. S. Department of Commerce, Air Passengers Traffic Pattern
( 2 ) CAA Statistical Handbook of Civil Aviation, 1957
( 3 ) Column ( 1 ) x Column ( 2 )
( 4 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 5 ) Column ( 4 ) - Column ( 3 )
-86-
SEATING CAPACITIES OF AIRLINES AIRCRAFT FLEET
UNITED STATES
APPENDIX A
TABLE 10
1965
Percent of
Total Aircraft
Fleet
(1)
Percent
Aircraft
Size Grot
(2)
Average Seats
per Aircraft
Weighted
Composite
Aircraft Size
Small and Medium
jp Range
(3)
Median
(4)
Seating
(5)
Small - Piston
Turb-prop .
Jet
Total
20%
21
-0-
41%
23.5%
24.7
-0-
48.2%
25-52
40
38.5
40.0
39.3
9.05
9.88
18.93
Medium- Piston 9%
Turbo -prop24
Jet 1 1
Total 44%
10.6%
28.2
13.0
51.8%
58-94
66-85
80-113
76.00
75.50
96.50
80.89
8.06
21.29
12.55
41.90
Total Small and
Medium
85%
100.0%
60.83
60.83
Large
Jet
Total
Large
15%
15%
100%
100%
109-125
117
117
117
117
Note: Representative Aircraft - Small- Piston: DC-3, CV-340, M-404
Turbo-prop: Visct, F-27
Medium - Piston: DC -6, DC -7, L-1049, B-377
Turbo-prop: Electra, Vanguard, Brittania
Jet: Caravel le, Comet IV , CV-880, DC -9
Large - Jet: B-707, DC -8
Source: Column (1) National Requirements for Aviation Facilities, Volume I, Table 7,
Page 12.
(2) Distribution as a percent of each size group.
(3) National Requirements for Aviation Facilities, Volume III,
pp. 2, 3 and 4.
(4) Median of Col (3)
(5) Col (2) x Col (4)
-87-
FORECAST OF ANNUAL DOMESTIC SCHEDULED AIRCRAFT
MOVEMENTS - O' HARE FIELD
1965
Annual Passenger Annual Average
Enplaning Load Departing Seats per
Passengers Factor Seats Aircraft
Jet Market 1,750,800 50.00% 3,501,600 117
Non -Jet Market 3,391,700 50.00 6,783,400 61
APPENDIX A
TABLE 11
Annual
Annual
Scheduled
Scheduled
Departures
Movements
29,928
59,856
111,203
222,406
Total O'Hare 5,142,500 50,00 10,285,000 72
141,131
282,262
- 88
FORECAST OF PEAK HOUR AIR CARRIER AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS APPENDIX A
O'HARE FIELD TABLE 12
1965
Type of Air Carrier
Annual
Aircraft
Movements
(1)
Average Day
Ai rcraf t
Movement
(2)
Peak Hour as
Percent of
Average Day
(3)
Peak Hour
Aircraft
Movement
(4)
Scheduled Airlines, Domestic
282,300
773
8.44%
66
Scheduled Airlines, International
5,000
14
8.44
1
Other Air Carriers
30,800
84
8.44
7
Total
380,900 1
,043
8.44
74
Source: Column ( 1 ) Chapter JI, Table VII
( 2 ) Column ( 1 ) r 365
( 3 ) Relationship determined from examination of Midway air carrier
operations.
( 4 ) Column ( 2 ) x Column ( 3 )
-89-
FORECAST OF HELICOPTER OPERATIONS
APPENDIX A
TABLE 13
O 'HARE FIELD
1965
Enplaning
Helicopter
Passengers
0)
Enplaning
Load
Factor
(2)
Departing
Helicopter
Seats
Average
Seats per
Helicopter
Annual
Helicopter
Departure
(5)
Annual
Helicopter
Movements
' (6)
1965 147,915
40%
369,788
18 *
20,544
41,088
*Estimated seating based on Vertol 44.
-90
APPENDIX A
TABLE 14
FORECAST OF MEDIAN PEAK HOUR HELICOPTER OPERATIONS
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Annual Average Day Median PeakMedian Peak
Helicopter Helicopter Hours as % Hour Helicopter
Operations O perations of Daily Operations
(1) (2) (3) (4)
1965 41,088 113 8,44% 10
Source Column ( 1 ) L & B Forecast of Annual Helicopter Operations
( 2 ) Column ( 1 ) i 365
( 3 ) Ratio of median peak hour air carriers operations to daily
air carrier operations, Midway Airport, 1957
( 4 ) Column ( 2 ) x Column ( 3 )
-91 -
HISTORICAL AIR CARGO TRAFFIC DEVELOPMENT
CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE UNITED STATES
1948-1957
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
* Gotch and Crawford, Airline Station Analyses
Chicago
(0
United States
(2)
24,620 *
165,366
30,046
211,472
42,514
289,491
38,027
286,836
36,760*
296,469
45,090
316,580
44,399
310,894
53,556
389,308
56,947
422,517
56,783
434,788
APPENDIX A
TABLE 15
Chicago as a
Per Cent of the
United States
m
14.9%
14.2
14.7
13.3
12,4
14.2
14.3
13.8
13.5
13.1
Source: Column (1 ) U. S. Department of Commerce, Air Commerce Traffic Pattern
( 2 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 3 ) Column ( 1 ) f Column ( 2 )
-92-
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF AIR MAIL TRAFFIC
CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE UNITED STATES
1948-1957
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Tons Air Mail Enplaned
Chicago
TTT~
6,718.0*
7,793.7
9,410.5
12,048.4
12,773.0
13,022.9
18,676.6
19,386.0
21,361.1
23,458.5
United States
~w — -
53,986.5
65,301.4
69,672.5
90,056.6
98,052.0
100,341.3
113,607.6
124,263.2
132,112.7
142,052.3
* Gotch and Crawford, Airline Station Analyses
APPENDIX A
TABLE 16
Chicago as a
Per Cent of the
United States
~m
12.44%
11.93
13.51
13.38
13.03
12.98
16.44
15.60
16.17
16.50
Source: Column ( 1 ) U. So Department of Commerce, Air Commerce Traffic Pattern
( 2 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 3 ) Column ( 1 ) f Column ( 2 )
-93-
HISTORICAL GROWTH OF AIR MAIL TRAFFIC AND POPULATION
APPENDIX A
CHICAGO AN0 TttE UNITED STATES
1948-1957 Chicago
TABLE 17
United States
Tons Air 1
Enplan
Number
(PPP)
(1)
Vlail
ed
Index
(2)
Metro. ,
Populati
Number
(000)
(3)
Area
on
Index
(4)
Tons Air Mail
Enplaned
Population
Number
(PPP)
(5)
Index
Number
(000)
(7)
Index
(8)
1948
6,719. P*
100
4,921
100
53,968.5
100
143,796
100
1949
7,793.7
116
5,147
105
65,3P1.4
121
146,496
102
195P
9,410.5
140
5,261
107
69,672.5
129
149,106
104
1951
12,048.4
179
5,545
113
9P,P56.6
167
152,311
106
1952
12,773.0*
190
5,631
114
98, 952. P
182
154,927
108
1953
13,022.9
194
5,665
115
100,341 .3
186
157,161
109
1954
18,676.6
278
5,761
117
113,607.6
210
160,020
111
1955
19,386.0
289
5,851
119
124,263.2
230
162,566
113
1956
21,361.1
318
6,151
125
132,112.7
245
165,812
115
1957
23,458.5
349
6,183
1#
142,052.3
263
168,805
117
* Gotch and Crawford, Airline Station Analyses
Source: Column ( 1 ) U. S. Department of Commerce, Air Commerce Traffic Pattern
( 2 ) Index of Column ( 1 ) , 1948 = 100
( 3 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 4 ) Index of Column ( 3 ), 1948 = 100
( 5 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 6 ) Index of Column ( 6 ), 1948 = 100
( 7 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 8 ) Index of Column ( 8 ), 1948 * 100
-94-
APPENDIX B - TERMINAL UTILIZATION
APPENDIX B
EXHIBIT I
TERMINAL POPULATION SURVEY
CHICAGO O'HARE FIELD
TERMINAL POPULATION COUNT
DATE
-
(X)
CHECKER
WEATHER Clear
Rain
Warm
Cold
Area Hour
Count
Half-Hour
Count
Ground Transportation,
Unloading,
1. People
2. Vehicles
Northside ticket counter
People Seated
General Merchandise
Southside Ticket Counter
Coffee Shop
Dining . Room
Cocktail Lounge
Miscellaneous People
Standing (in lobby area)
.Claim Baggage
Ground Transportation,
Loading,
1. People
2. Vehicles
-95
APPENDIX B
EXHIBIT 2
AIRLINE PASSENGER SURVEY
Airport
Airline
Date
Time Passengers
FLIGHT NUMBER Arrival Departure Boarded Off Through
-96
APPENDIX B
TABLE 1
MEDIAN PEAK HOUR FUNCTIONAL .AREA POPULATION
0"HARE FIELD
1957
Friday
Four Pea
Functional Area
Hours
(1)
Ticket Counters
30
32
24
20
People Sedated -
Lobby
60
59
55
55
People Standing
- Lobby
35
33
31
30
General Merchandise
12
9
8
8
Coffee Shop
46
45
38
38
Dining Room
44
42
37
37
Cocktail Lounge
27
26
26
25
Terminal Building and Area Population
Sunday
Median Four Peak Median
Peak Hours Hours Peak Hours
28
57
32
42
40
26
-97-
m
30
28
27
22
54
53
53
46
58
56
51
45
14
13
12
11
47
43
42
36
45
40
40
26
28
26
24
23
(4)
28
53
53
13
43
40
25
Functional Area
People in Unloading Area
Frida
Sunday
Four Peak Median
Hours Peak Hour
(3)
13
11
11
10
W
n
People in Loading Area
6
6
6
5
16
9
9
8
Claim Baggage
24
22
16
10
19
53
26
22
11
24
Source Column ( 1 ) Special Terminal Population Survey, O'Hare Field, 1957
( 2 ) Median of four peak hours shown for each area in Column ( 1 )
( 3 ) Same as Column ( 1 )
( 4 ) Median of four peak hours shown for each area in Column ( 3 )
-98
APPENDIX B
TABLE 2
MEDIAN PEAK POPULATION RELATED TO AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC
O'HARE FIELD
1957
Ticket Counters
People Seated - Lobby
People Standing - Lobby
General Merchandise
Coffee Shop
Dining Room
Cocktail Lounge
People in Unloading Area
People in Loading Area
Claim Baggage
Median Peak Population Per
100 Daily Enplaning Passengers
M edian
Median
Friday
Sunday
2.2
2.5
4.6
AJ.,
2jS
4.7
0.7
1.2
3.4
3.8
3.2
3.5
2,1
2.2
0.5
1.0
0.5
.0.8
1.5
2/1
Source: Special Terminal Population Survey, O'Hare Field, 1957
-99-
APPENDIX B
EXHIBIT 3
TERMINAL POPULATION SURVEY
CHICAGO O'HARE FIELD
GROUND TRANSPORTATION - PAID PARKING
DATE
0800 - OPENING INVENTORY
CHECKER
(X)
WEATHER
Clear
Rain
Warm
Cold
PLUS TOTAL ENTERING
LESS TOTAL EXITING
Hour Ending
Number of Cars
Entering Leaving
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
- 100-
TERMINAL POPULATION SURVEY
CHICAGO O'HARE FIELD
GROUND TRANSPORTATION - LIMOUSINES
( Arriving and Departing Passengers )
APPENDIX B
EXHIBIT 4
DATE
COMPLETED BY
( X ) WEATHER Clear
Rain
Warm
Cold
Time of Arrival
Number of Passengers
Time of Departure Number of Passengers
- 101 -
APPENDIX B
EXHIBIT 5
TERMINAL POPULATION SURVEY
CHICAGO O'HARE FIELD
GROUND TRANSPORTATION -TAXI INVENTORY
DATE
CHECKER
Hour of Inventory
0800
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
;140Q
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
( X ) WEATHER Clear Worm
Rain Cold
Number of Taxbs in Waiting Line
102
APPENDIX. B
TABLE 3
USE OF GROUND TRANSPORTATION BY AIR PASSENGERS
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Air Passengers
1965 ~~
Mode of Transporfation Org! noting Terminating
. Number Per Cent N umber Per Cent
Private Automobile 1,479,200 50% 1,183,300 40%
Taxi 1,035,400 35% 1,035,400 35%
Airport Limousine 295,800 10% 591,700 20%
'o
Helicopters 147,900 5% 147,900 5%
Total 2,958,300 100% 2,958,300 100%
104-
APPENDIX B
TABLE 4
MEDIAN PEAK VEHICLE INVENTORIES
O'HARE FIELD
1957
Vehicle
Inventory
Fr
iday
irs
Sunday
Four Peak
Hours
-an
Median
Peak Hot
(2)
Four Peak
Hours
(3)
Median
Peak Hours
(4)
Vehicles in Unloading
Area 3
3
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
Vehicles in Loading
Area
4
3
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
3
Paid Parking
374
367
358
348
363
345
324
286
280
305
Taxi cabs
25
24
22
22
23
22
21
19
17
20
Source: Column ( 1 ) Special Terminal Ground Transportation Survey,
O'Hare Field, 1957
( 2 ) Median of four peak hours shown for each type of
vehicle inventory in Column (1)
( 3 ) Same as Column (1)
( 4 ) Median of four peak hours shown for each type of
vehicle inventory in Column (3)
- 105 -
APPENDIX B
TABLE 5
MEDIAN PEAK VEHICLES INVENTORIES RELATED TO AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC
O'HARE FIELD
1957
Peak Vehicle Inventories Per
100 Daily Enplaning Passengers
Median, j Median
Friday Sunday
Vehicles in Unloading Area
Vehicles in Loading Area
Paid Parking
Taxi cabs
Limousines
Rental Cars
0.24
0.18
0.24
0.27
29.35
27.02
1.86
1.77
0.32
0,37
L86
1.64
Source; Special Terminal Ground Transportation Survey, O'Hare Field, 1957
106 -
APPENDIX C - CONCESSION REVENUES
APPENDIX C -
CONCESSION REVENUE
INTRODUCTION
This appendix consists of detailed data used in the development
of estimates of gross concession revenue for those concessions at O'Hare Field
in 1965 whose space requirements are expected to be a function of the amount
of gross revenue available -
In the development of these forecasts, the revenue experience
of the concessions at Midway Airport and O'Hare Field, as well as other major
airports in the United States, was considered. Consideration was also given to the
present level of air passenger traffic at O'Hare Field as it related to the development
of concession revenue.. Similarly, the effect of over-crowded conditions at
Midway Airport on concession revenue was also considered „
FORECAST CRITERIA
Ao Public Food
The public food concession, which may include such separate
concessions as Dining Room, Coffee Shop and Snack Bar, is expected to gross
$1.00 per enplaning passenger at O'Hare Field in 1965 . This estimate is
felt to be conservative in view of the present experience at O'Hare Field and
at other major airports in the United States. In 1956, gross public food revenue
was equal to $1.09 per enplaning passenger at O'Hare Field.
B. Cocktail Lounge
Gross revenues derived from the operation of a cocktail lounge
concession at O'Hare Field in 1965 are expected to equal $ .50 per enplaning
passenger. This is comparable to the experience of other major airports in the
- 107-
United States where similar cocktail lounge concessions are in operation . In
1956/ the gross revenue from the cocktail lounge was equal to $ =26 per
enplaning passenger. |t is felt that with the development of a more complete air
traffic pattern at O "Hare Field, particularly during the daily periods associated
with peak cockfail lounge activity, revenues per enplaning passenger can be
expected to increase to the level forecasted*
C. General Merchandise
The general merchandise concession, including news-stands, gift and
novelty shops, is expected to gross $ ,50 per enplaning passenger at 0!Hare
Field in 1965. In 1956, revenues of the general merchandise confession at
O 'Hare Field were equal to $.32 per enplaning passenger. It is felt that a
more fully developed air traffic and terminal population pattern at O'Hare
Field will allow revenues equal to the forecasfybasis to be developed, since
this level is comparable to levels presently experienced by major airports
in the United States.
D. Game Room
Gross revenue estimates for the game room concession at
O "Hare Field in 1965 were forecasted as equal to $ „ 03 per enplaning
passenger. In the development of this forecast the experience of other major
airports in the United States was considered., It is felt that this level of
concession revenue, since it is comparable to levels developed at other
major airports, represents a forecast basis that is reasonable for sprite and
facility planning.
- 108
E. Toilets
This concession is expected to develop gross revenues equal to
$o02 per enplaning passenger at CHare Field in 1965 . This level is comparable
to levels at other major airports in the United States and is felt to be a
reasonable basis for developing revenue forecasts for space and facility planning
purposes .
- 109
APPENDIX C
TABLE 1
FORECAST OF GROSS CONCESSION REVENUE
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Enplaning
Passengers
1965
Gross Concession
Revenue Per
Enplaning Passenger
Gross Concession
Revenue
1965
Dining Room and Coffee Shop 5 ]42 500
$1.00
$5, 142,500
Cocktail Lounge
.60
3,085,500
General Merchandise
.50
2,571,300
Game Room
.03
154,300
Toilets
.02
102,900
no-
GROSS REVENUE AND PEAK OCCUPANCY OF CONCESSIONS
AVERAGE DAY
O'HARE FIELD
1965
Dining Room
and
Coffee Shop
A Annual Grcss Revenue $5,142,500
B Average Day Gross Revenue $ 14,090
C Gross Revenue per Peak
Occupancy
D Peak Occupancy Estimates
Based on Revenue
E Peak Occupancy Forecasts
$
14.00
1,010
970
Cockfal 1
lounge
$3,085,500
$ 8,450
APPENDIX C
TABLE 2
General
Merchandise
$2,571,300
$ 7,040
22.00 $
380
350
50.90
140
120
Source: Line A * Table I, Chapter Vlll
B - Line A 7 365
C - Estimated, based on present O'Hare Held experience
D - Line B 7 Line C
E - Forecasted on basis of air passenger traffic growth
- Ill -
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