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APR 2 8
LI6I— O-I096
Prices of Illinois Farm
Products From 1921
to 1929
By L. J. NORTON
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION
BULLETIN 363
CONTENTS
PAGE
SCOPE OF THE STUDY 517
VARIATIONS AMONG PRICES OF INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTS 518
Changes Between First and Last Halves of Period 520
Permanency of Differences in Price Relationships 520
Relative Prices Not an Indication of Relative Profits 522
Should Production Be Varied in Response to Price Changes? 522
Farm Adjustments Relatively Slow 523
SITUATION FOR INDIVIDUAL COMMODITIES 524
Horses, Hay, and Oats 524
Barley 531
Corn and Hogs 533
Beef Cattle, Milk Cows, and Veal Calves 543
Wheat and Rye 549
Sheep, Lambs, and Wool 553
Eggs and Chickens 558
Butter and Other Dairy Products 561
Red Clover Seed 566
Apples 567
Potatoes 569
PRICES OF FARM PRODUCTS COMPARED WITH PRICES OF
THINGS BOUGHT BY FARMERS 571
General Causes for Low Purchasing Power of Illinois Farm Products 574
Variations in Prices Within the Period 578
Comparative Variability of Prices of Different Commodities 579
Price Variations Among Districts Within the State 580
Month-to-Month Variations Between Different Parts of the State 588
SUMMARY.. . 596
Urbana, Illinois December, 1930
Publications in the Bulletin series report the results of investigations
made or sponsored by the Experiment Station
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
FROM 1921 TO 1929'
By L. J. NORTON, Assistant Chief in Agricultural Economics*
T IS a matter of common knowledge that many of our farm
products have been relatively low in price since the high war-time
. basis gave way to a peace-time basis in 1920. Larger quantities of
corn, hogs, or wheat have been required to buy a binder, to pay the hired
man, or to pay taxes or interest than during the high-price war years
or even during the period before 1914. This situation and its far-
reaching effects on Illinois farmers and landowners is generally recog-
nized. The wide variations that have developed in the relative positions
of various farm products have not been given as great consideration.
In this bulletin the difference between commodities rather than the
general position of farm products is emphasized.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
Specifically this bulletin deals with some of the changes in the prices
of twenty Illinois farm products during the period 1921-1929.
The prices used in the study were collected by the U. S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture.3 They represent the prices which were paid to
farmers on the 15th of each month by a large number of buyers of
farm products at country points. Such prices have an advantage over
central market prices in that they reflect the net prices received by
farmers. Central market prices include certain handling expenses, and
these change in amount during a period such as covered in this study.
That this series of farm prices reflects changes in market prices rather
closely is indicated by comparing them with other series based on
market prices.
'In order to bring this study more nearly down to date some data for 1929
were added while the manuscript was in process and after the main study of
price relationships for 1921 to 1928 had been made.
"The author acknowledges the helpful assistance of B. B. Wilson, G. L.
Jordan, and Rodney Whitaker, who, as Research Assistants in Agricultural
Economics, aided in the preparation of material used in this bulletin.
'In this publication free use has been made of statistics of a number of
kinds collected by the U. S. Department of Agriculture and published in the
yearbooks and in various other publications of the Department. Specific refer-
ence is not made to each of these. The author wishes particularly to acknowl-
edge the cooperation of C. F. Sarle and Roger Hale, of the Bureau of Agri-
cultural Economics, who made available the price data which permitted the study
of local prices within the state.
517
518
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
VARIATIONS AMONG PRICES OF INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTS
The comparative positions of the prices of twenty products for
the eight-year period 1921-1928 and for 1929 are shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1. — AVERAGE PRICES OF SELECTED ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS, 1921-1928, AND
1929, COMPARED WITH 1910-1914
Commodity
1910-1914
1921-1928
Two four-year periods
1929
1921-1924
1925-1928
Prices
Horses, head
$151.58
13.95
.63
.38
.73
7.44
.58
5.94
53.94
.92
7.19
4.26
.21
.25
9.02
.20
1.04
.83
.11
5.93
$86. 10
13.75
.65
.40
.89
9.23
.72
7.51
71.95
1.25
9.95
5.90
.30
.40
14.75
.33
1.71
1.35
.20
11.02
$87.27
14.23
.60
.38
.85
7.86
.65
6.42
59.66
1.13
8.59
5.19
.30
.38
11.69
.29
1.84
1.18
.20
9.62
$84.94
13.27
.69
.42
.92
10.61
.79
8.60
76.74
1.38
11.30
6.62
.30
.42
17.82
.36
1.57
1.56
.21
12.41
$86.33
11.67
.53
.42
.92
9.78
.84
10.54
100.25
1.13
13.46
6.63
.31
.44
15.90
.35
1.83
1.10
.22
12.59
Hay, ton
Barley, bushel
Oats, bushel
Rye, bushel . .
Hogs, 100 pounds
Corn, bushel
Beef cattle, 100 pounds.
Milk cows, head
Wheat, bushel
Veal calves, 100 pounds..
Sheep, 100 pounds
Eggs, dozen
Butter, pound
Red clover seed, bushel..
Wool, pound
Apples, bushel
Potatoes, bushel
Chickens, pound
Lambs, 100 pounds
Index numbers of prices (1910-1914 = 100)
Horses
100
56.8
57.6
56.0
57.0
Hay
100
98 6
102 0
95 1
83 6
Barley
100
102.8
96 0
109 5
84. 1
Oats
100
104 2
99 3
109 2
110 5
Rye
100
121 8
116 8
126 7
126 0
Hogs
100
124.1
105 6
142.6
131.4
Corn
100
124 4
112 5
136 2
144 8
Beef cattle
100
126.4
108 2
144.7
177.4
100
126 4
110 6
142 3
185 8
Wheat
100
136 0
122 6
149 4
122 8
Veal calves
100
138.4
119.5
157.2
187.2
Sheep
100
138 6
121 8
155 4
155 6
Eggs
100
143.4
141 6
145.2
147.6
Butter
100
160 5
152.0
169.0
176.0
Red clover seed
100
161 0
129 6
197 5
176 3
Wool
100
163 1
143.8
182.5
175 0
Apples
100
164.0
176.9
151.2
176.0
Potatoes
100
165 2
141 8
188 6
132 5
Chickens
100
184.1
179.5
188.6
200.0
Lambs
100
185.7
162.2
209.3
212.3
The more important items are shown graphically in Fig. 1. In order
to bring out the differences more clearly, the prices for the different
periods are expressed as index numbers or percentages of the average
for 1910-1914.
The way to interpret the percentages (index numbers) shown in
Table 1 and Fig. 1 may best be illustrated by an example. During
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
519
1921-1928 the prices both of corn and of hogs averaged 124 percent
of 1910-1914. This means that quantities of corn and of hogs which
would have brought $100 at 1910-1914 prices would have brought
$124 at 1921-1928 prices.
In making comparisons of these index figures it must be kept in
mind that the prices of particular commodities may have been relatively
high or low during the base period, which was just before the out-
break of the World War. Cattle, for example, were rather high during
J92/-/928
/92S-/9Z8
FIG. 1. — RELATIVE FARM PRICES OF FOURTEEN ILLINOIS FARM
PRODUCTS, 1921 TO 1928
Wide variations have developed between the relative prices of these four-
teen products. Altho there was a general tendency for the prices to be higher
during the second four years, 1925-1928,' than during the four previous years,
the various products maintained much the same relative positions.
the base period, while sheep and lambs were low. This circumstance
lowers the index figure for cattle in the 1921-1928 period and raises
those for sheep and lambs. Wherever circumstances of this type had
a significant effect on the figures for the later periods, they are noted
in the discussion of individual commodities.
That wide variations in price relationships have developed among
the twenty commodities listed is shown by a study of either Table
1 or Fig. 1. Grouping these commodities according to whether 1921-
1928 prices were low, intermediate, or high as compared with 1910-
1914 prices, we have the following arrangement.
520 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
Low
Horses 57 Barley 103
Hay 99 Oats 104
Intermediate
Rye 122 Wheat 136
Hogs 124 Veal calves 138
Corn 124 Sheep 139
Beef cattle 126 Eggs 143
Milk cows 126
High
Butter 160 Potatoes 165
Red clover seed 161 Chickens 184
Wool 163 Lambs 186
Apples 164
While averages for individual years would fall into different order
from the above (see Table 7), we are concerned here, not with differ-
ences during individual years, but with any general tendencies that
have developed, and these can be shown only by expressing the prices
in averages for several years.
CHANGES BETWEEN FIRST AND LAST HALVES OF PERIOD
Prices tended to be higher in the last four years of 1921-1928 than
in the first four years. In 1921-1924 the average index figure for the
twenty items was 125.0, while in 1925-1928 it was 147.8. Seventeen of
the twenty items averaged higher in the second period than in the first.
The three exceptions were horses, hay, and apples. The relative posi-
tions of the various items did not change very much between these
two periods. The period of relatively higher prices continued down to
the end of 1929. The year 1930 appears to have initiated a newer
period, during which the averages will be lower than for 1925-1929.
PERMANENCY OF DIFFERENCES IN PRICE RELATIONSHIPS
Can we expect the relationships shown in Table 1 among these
various farm commodities to continue? Will butter continue to be
relatively higher in price than oats, and if so, for how long? These
questions must be answered before farmers can wisely use a knowledge
of such relationships as a guide to changes in their business.
It is obvious that a decrease in the quantity of oats marketed and
an increase in the quantity of butter would operate to bring the prices
of these two commodities closer together. Such a shift would tend
to alter the price relationship which caused the shift to be made.
The fact that some of the differences in price relationships that have
developed since 1910-1914 have persisted and in some cases have
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
521
OQ| I I I I I I I I I I
I8fe5 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 190? 1910 1915
I9Z5 1930
FIG. 2. — VALUE PER HEAD OF MILK Cows AND OTHER CATTLE ON
ILLINOIS FARMS, JANUARY 1, 1867 to 1930
(U. S. Department of Agriculture estimates)
Prices of milk cows and of other cattle have tended to follow each other
closely. Both run in well-marked cycles. In 1929 prices of both were in the
high-price phase of the cycle.
widened over a period, of eight years indicates that some of them may
prove rather permanent.
In the detailed discussion in the following sections of this bulle-
tin certain facts regarding the causes for the changes that have taken
place in price relationships among these twenty agricultural products
are presented and certain suggestions are made as to the probable per-
manence of these changes. At the outset it may be stated that per-
522 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
manent changes in the relative prices of various products will occur
only when there are permanent changes either in demand or in cost
of production in Illinois or elsewhere. Hence in analyzing the situa-
tion we will pay particular attention to factors that have made for
permanent changes either in cost of or in demand for these products,
and in the absence of such changes we may expect that the differences
which have developed between products will be only temporary. Of
course the price of a commodity may for a particular year or even
for a series of years be high or low in relation to others even tho there
are no permanent changes in demands or in costs. A large or small
crop yield per acre during one year or for a series of years may, for
example, temporarily cause low or high prices ; or an over-expansion
in some branch of livestock production may cause low prices for a
series of years until numbers are reduced to a point where the market
will absorb the output at higher prices. Farmers are more likely to be
misled by high or low livestock prices, however, than by high or low
crop prices because the reason for the high or low crop prices — the
small or large crops — is more obvious than the reasons for the high
or low livestock prices.
Eight years is a period long enough to iron out the influence of
individual years as well as to permit post-war conditions to have
worked out a large part of their influence on values. Generally speak-
ing, the relative order which the various commodities have held during
1921-1928 may, with the probable exception of the various classes of
cattle, be expected to continue for the next few years.
RELATIVE PRICES NOT AN INDICATION OF RELATIVE PROFITS
The mere fact that the price of butter from 1921 to 1928 averaged
160 percent of 1910-1914, while the price of oats averaged only 104
percent, does not prove that oats were less profitable than butter. The
costs of production may have increased in the same ratio. Labor is a
large item in the cost of producing butter. As pointed out above, the
price of butter would stay permanently higher than the price of oats
only if the cost of producing butter were to rise in relation to the cost
of producing oats.
SHOULD PRODUCTION BE VARIED IN RESPONSE
TO PRICE CHANGES?
In studying price changes as a factor to be considered in planning
farming operations, three different types of change should be kept in
mind:
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 523
1. Permanent changes resulting from changes in demand or costs.
2. Temporary changes resulting from year-to-year variations in
yields per acre.
3. Semitemporary changes due to production cycles that occur with
all species of livestock and with some crops.
A good illustration of a permanent change is the decline in the
demand for oats caused by the decline in the number of horses. A less
obvious example is the effect that higher wage levels have had on the
cost of producing commodities that require much labor for their pro-
duction. Permanent changes in production can wisely be made in
response to price changes of the permanent type, particularly when
the price changes result from changes in demand.
Readers will have no trouble in calling to mind illustrations of
temporary changes, caused by variations in yield per acre. These
should be ignored in making long-time farm plans.
The third type of change — semitemporary — is well illustrated by
the cattle situation from 1921 to 1928. During the first part of this
period cattle were low in price, which was an indication that receipts
were excessive in relation to demand. During the latter part of the
period cattle were high in price, receipts having fallen to a point where
the demand would absorb the offerings at a higher level.
The farmer can adopt two policies with respect to changes of the
semitemporary type: first, he may maintain a stable production, vary-
ing his output but little over a period of years ; second, he may attempt
to vary production in such a way as to have more of the commodity
to sell in periods of high price and less in periods of low price. The
latter policy is quite different from that which is followed by many
farmers who increase production during periods of low price and re-
duce production during periods of high price; this is of course an un-
wise policy. Which of the first two policies is best depends on par-
ticular circumstances and is therefore a matter of individual decision.
Variable production requires more judgment, and should result in a
farmer's obtaining higher average prices if his judgment proves good
but it may result in higher average costs because of incomplete use
of equipment during a part of the time and the necessity of storing
larger quantities of feed.
FARM ADJUSTMENTS RELATIVELY SLOW
Altho farming is a relatively stable business, changes in the relative
importance of the various enterprises are constantly being made. Such
shifts tend to equalize profits in the different lines of production and
524 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
also to keep the prices of different commodities in about the same
relationship with each other unless permanent changes occur either in
the cost of production or in demand. But many of the changes neces-
sary to maintain such equality require time. The changes necessary to
keep the prices of corn and hogs in a fairly definite relationship to
each other can be rather quickly made and hence over a series of
years a fairly definite relationship is maintained between their average
prices. But the changes in farm practices made desirable by a cheapen-
ing of oats in relation to butter require a long time. The necessary
changes involve capital investments in animals and frequently in
buildings, and furthermore it becomes necessary for the farmer con-
cerned to learn the details of properly caring for and managing a
dairy herd. Eventually the changes necessary to equalize returns be-
tween the two lines of production will be made, but a considerable in-
terval may elapse before the process is completed.
The time interval required by any adjustment of this type creates
opportunities for the men who are successful in making the change
quickly to obtain above-normal profits for the period during which
the changes are being made by other farmers who are slower to adjust.
SITUATION FOR INDIVIDUAL COMMODITIES
In the following pages individual products will be considered, ar-
ranged in the order of their price position from 1921 to 1928 with
some grouping of related items.
HORSES, HAY, AND OATS
The circumstances influencing the prices of horses, hay, and oats
are similar. One of the most important outlets for hay and oats has
been as horse feed. With the decline in number of horses the demands
for all products have been reduced and prices have been lowered. For
this reason the three are grouped together for discussion.
Horses
During the period under discussion, horses were relatively lower
in price than any of the other commodities considered in this study.
The average farm price of horses in 1910-1914 was $152 a head; from
1921-1928, $86; and in 1929, $86. Both the 1921-1928 average price
and the 1929 price were 57 percent of the 1910-1914 price. The fact
that the price of horses was at a relatively high level in 1910-1914
tends to make prices during the recent period appear more unfavorable
1930}
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
525
than would have been the case if the comparison had been made with
prices during a complete horse-price cycle. Prices of horses in 1910-
1914 were at such a level that a decline would likely have come even
tho the demand for horses had not been diminished by the increased
use of mechanical power, for the high prices of the 1910-1914 period
were stimulating an increase in numbers of horses.
/9f/
FIG. 3.— HORSES AND MULES 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICES
After a downward movement from 1921 to 1923, the reported farm price
of horses has been rather stable. From 1925 thru 1929 the price averaged
about $85, with a range from about $80 to $90 a head. These prices refer to
sales of average farm horses, the age of which is steadily increasing. Prices for
/mules since January, 1926, which is the only period for which prices have been
available, show a trend similar to that of horses.
The above averages refer to farm prices. The horses on Illinois
farms averaged older for the 1921-1928 period than for the 1910-1914
period because of a decline in breeding operations. This advanced age
explains the low level of prices in part. The average prices for draft
horses in Chicago, as quoted in the yearbook of the Chicago Daily
Drovers Journal, were $207 in 1910-1914, $166 in 1921-1928, and
$165 in 1929. The 1921-1928 average and the 1929 price were both
approximately 80 percent of the 1910-1914 price. Altho these prices
are somewhat higher than farm prices, they indicate that horses have
been much lower in price than during the pre-war period.
The decline in the demand for horses reflects the wide adoption of
other forms of power and the tendency for farm operations to de-
cline in some sections of the country. Between 1909 and 1928 the
number of horses and mules in cities declined by about two million
head, or from 3.4 millions to about 1.4 millions. The purchase of re-
526 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
placements for horses used in cities made up an important part of the
market demand for horses. Between January 1, 1918, and January
1, 1929, the number of horses on the farms and ranches in the United
States declined by about 7.5 million head. During the same period
the number of mules increased by about one-half million head. Most
of this increase was in the South, where tractors have not been so
widely adopted.
The production of horses requires but little labor; the chief items
in the cost of raising them are pasture, roughages, and feed grains,
all of which in recent years have been relatively cheap. These cir-
cumstances would operate to keep up the production of some colts
even tho prices for horses were low. All available statistics, however,
show that up to 1930 sufficient colts were not being raised to replace
the number of horses now in use.
The distinct shortage of horses which may result from the reduc-
tion in numbers of colts may lead to considerably higher prices than
those which prevailed in 1921-1928, but in the long run the substitution
of other forms of power will operate to hold down the price of horses.
The tendency will be for producers who have relatively low costs,
because of location or for some other reason, to raise the fewer colts
needed to maintain the number of horses and mules required under the
new conditions.
Exports and imports of horses are very small and have no effect
on the market for the ordinary class of horses. The import duty of
$30 per head imposed by the Tariff Acts of both 1909 and 1922 repre-
sents a much higher duty in relation to the value of horses in recent
years than it represented from 1909 to 1913.1
'The Tariff Act of 1909 was in effect from August 6, 1909, to October 13,
1913. While this did not cover completely the period used as a base in the
indexes referred to in this bulletin, 1910-1914, it covers the greater part of the
period. So also the Tariff Act of 1922, which did not go into effect until Sep-
tember 21, 1922, does not cover quite all the 1921-1928 period. In the latter
period, however, the Emergency Tariff Act, with somewhat similar rates on
agricultural products, went into effect on May 27, 1921, and this goes back
nearly to the beginning of the period.
The rates given in this publication should not be confused with those made
effective by the Act of 1930. The rates in this publication on items referred to
areas follows: horses, $30 per head, or 20 percent ad valorem if worth more than
$150 a head ; hay, $5 a ton ; oats, 16 cents a bushel ; barley, 20 cents a bushel ;
corn, 25 cents a bushel ; wheat, 42 cents a bushel ; swine, 2 cents a pound ;
pork, fresh, 2^ cents a pound ; hams, 31/4 cents a pound ; cattle weighing
less than 700 pounds each, 2% cents a pound, 700 pounds or more each, 3 cents a
pound ; beef and veal, 6 cents a pound ; sheep and lambs, $3 a head ; mutton,
5 cents a pound ; lamb, 7 cents a pound ; wool, in the grease or washed, 34
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 527
Hay
The average farm price of hay in Illinois was $13.95 a ton in 1910-
1914; $13.75 in 1921-1928; and $11.67 in 1929. The 1921-1928 price
averaged 99 percent of pre-war. The lower price in 1929, which was
only 84 percent of pre-war, reflected the influences of a larger crop.
That there was no tendency for hay prices to rise during the period
under consideration is indicated by the fact that in 1921-1924 hay
prices averaged 102 percent of the 1910-1914 prices, while in 1925-
1928 they averaged only 95 percent.
Decreased demand and low cost requirements are the most impor-
tant causes for the low prices. A large part of the hay that entered
into commerce was used for feeding work animals, chiefly mules on
southern farms and horses in cities. The decline of two million head
in the number of horses in cities has reduced the market demand for
hay by perhaps 5 million tons. At the same time the local production
of hay has been increasing in the southern states. The decline in the
number of work animals on farms of about 7 million head has released
a large amount of hay for other uses.
The total hay crops of the United States averaged about one-third
larger annually from 1921 to 1928 than from 1910 to 1914. That this
increase was in part the result of heavier yields per acre is indicated
by the fact that on a total national acreage only about 12 percent larger
in 1921-1928 than in 1910-1914, about 30 percent more hay was grown
annually. The entire increase in acreage occurred prior to 1921 ; from
1921 to 1928 the area of tame hay was maintained at around 60 million
acres. The increase in yield per acre was caused by increased acreages
in more productive areas as well as by improvements in practices con-
nected with hay production.
Four good reasons may be suggested for the maintenance of hay
acreage in spite of low prices. First, most farmers pay little attention
to the price of hay; they are interested in hay only as a feed to be
used in producing marketable products, such as cattle, milk, lambs, or
wool. Second, the production of hay requires little labor and hence
is favored at a time when farm costs are high in relation to returns.
Third, hay is extensively grown on land not well adapted to other
crops; it is either hay or pasture or nothing for a great deal of the
cents a pound of clean content ; eggs in the shell, 10 cents a dozen ; chickens,
live, 8 cents a pound, dressed, 10 cents a pound ; butter, 14 cents a pound ; red
clover seed, 8 cents a pound ; apples, 25 cents a bushel ; potatoes, 45 cents 3
bushel. In general these rates are higher, altho not much higher, than the ratei
in the Act of 1922.
528
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
land in hay. Fourth, certain kinds of hay make a desirable addition
to most cropping systems and the tendency to adopt better crop rota-
tion in some sections of the country has tended to increase hay acre-
ages. Increases in acreage of hay have occurred chiefly in those
sections of the country where there has been a tendency to diversify
agricultural production. The fact that hay acreages have been main-
tained in spite of low market prices indicates that farmers thought
FIG. 4. — HAY 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
During this period the general trend in the price of hay has been down-
ward. No definite seasonal variation can be observed. The influence on prices
of short supplies early in 1924 and of a very large crop in 1927 is clearly visible.
that hay production was the most profitable use to which they could
put about 60 million acres of land under the price and cost conditions
which have prevailed.
Hay is a bulky product and has a low value per pound. This fact
tends to cause the costs of marketing to be high in relation to its value.
Marketing and transportation costs have been relatively high during
the period under consideration. This has tended to reduce the prices
paid to farmers for hay.
Neither exports nor imports have much significance in the hay
situation. The import duty of $4 a ton provided under the Tariff Act
of 1922 probably prevented the importation of some hay.1
The factors which operated to keep hay low in price during this
period will probably continue during the next few years. This means
'See footnote page 526.
1930] PRICES PF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 529
reduced gross incomes for farms which produce hay for sale, but on
farms where hay is grown as a feed crop the continuation of low prices
will be of little or no significance. Acreages are likely to increase
rather than to decrease for the following reasons : the demand for live-
stock and livestock products is increasing; hay production involves
comparatively little cost, and some kinds of hay have considerable
value as soil-building crops.
Oats
Oats have been one of the cheapest of the commodities studied, the
Illinois farm price averaging 38 cents a bushel for 1910-1914, 40 cents
for 1921-1928, and 42 cents in 1929. The 1921-1928 price averaged
104 percent of the 1910-1914 price; and the 1929 price, 110 percent of
the 1910-1914 price. The principal reason for these relatively low
prices was the decline in numbers of horses, altho a relatively low
corn price was also a factor.
Oats were worth more per pound than corn in the 1910-1914 period
but were cheaper in the 1924-1928 period. In the earlier period the
Illinois farm price of oats was equivalent to 1.19 cents a pound; com-
pared with 1.04 cents for corn. For 1924-1928 corresponding figures
for oats were 1.31 cents and for corn, 1.41 cents. The decline in the
relative price of oats reflects the loss of the special market for them.
The price averaged relatively better during the last four years of
this period than during the first four. During 1921-1924, it averaged
99 percent of the 1910-1914 price, while during 1925-1928 it was 109
percent.
Illinois is a leading state in the marketing of oats. During 1922-
1926 about 60 million bushels, or 43 percent of the state's crop, was
marketed annually.
This tendency for oats to decline in value began some years ago.
Except for the war years the peak of oats prices came in 1908.
The decline in the number of horses in cities has reduced the mar-
ket for oats by the equivalent of at least 200 million bushels. The
quantity marketed in the country as a whole in 1921-1927 averaged
only about 30 million bushels less than the quantity marketed in 1910-
1914. Stocks of oats in terminal markets have averaged larger than
formerly. On the first of December during 1910-1914 the quantity of
oats being stored in market centers (the visible supply) averaged 22
million bushels, and during 1921-1927 it averaged 46 million bushels.
Exports also increased from about 10 million bushels a year for the
five years beginning July 1, 1909, to 20 million bushels a year for the
seven years beginning July 1, 1921. These are signs that the market-
530
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
ings were too large to permit of rapid consumption. While all the oats
marketed were finally consumed, comparatively low prices were nec-
essary to move them into consumption.
From 1921 to 1928 both United States acreage and the total pro-
duction of oats averaged about 13 percent larger than from 1910 to
FIG. 5.— CORN AND OATS 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICES
During the first half of this period the price of corn increased rather
steadily from the low level reached in 1921-22, when for four months it
averaged below 40 cents a bushel. The short crop in 1924 held the price
slightly over $1 for nearly a year. During the decline which came with the
better crops of 1925 and 1926, the price went down to a harvest-time level
of below 60 cents. Recovery in price followed with the short crop of 1927,
and during 1928 and 1929 the price fluctuated between 70 cents and $1. In
general, changes in oats prices have been similar to those in corn prices during
this period.
1914. The increase of approximately 5 million acres between these
two periods occurred between 1914 and 1921, there being no visible
trend between 1921 and 1928. The estimated world production of oats
outside of Russia and China averaged practically the same in 1921-1928
as in 1909-1913. These increases in production are not sufficient to
explain the relatively low price of oats, altho the larger acreage in the
United States thruout this period tended to keep the price low.
The question may be asked: Why has the acreage of oats been
maintained in the face of low prices? The reasons are similar to those
suggested for hay: oats are largely fed on farms where grown; they
require little labor ; the crop has a definite place in rotations ; the low
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 531
labor requirements may make them a profitable crop for tenant farmers
even tho gross returns are low. The increases in acreage between 1914
and 1921 were chiefly in sections which were developing a more di-
versified type of farming.
Imports of oats are typically very small; for the seven years be-
ginning July 1, 1921, they averaged about 1.4 million bushels a year.
The import duty of 15 cents a bushel imposed by the Tariff Act of 1922
shut off some imports from Canada but had very little influence on
the Illinois farm price.1
Oats are a bulky product with a low value per pound and, like other
products of similar nature, have been adversely influenced by the in-
creased costs of transportation and marketing.
The trend in oats prices over the next few years will depend on
the trend in the prices of feed crops in general and of corn in par-
ticular. Oats may be expected to be relatively cheaper than corn until
there are further reductions in the quantities marketed. The adjust-
ment involved is not so much a question of growing fewer acres of
oats but rather of selling fewer bushels of oats. The correction of
this situation lies, not with oats producers as a group, but with those
who produce for the cash market. In spite of any adjustments that
may be made, the loss of an important part of the market for oats will
tend to keep them relatively low in price for a considerable period of
time.
BARLEY
Compared with pre-war prices, barley has been a cheap crop
during the 1921-1928 period as a whole. The average Illinois farm
price of barley was 63 cents a bushel in 1910-1914, 65 cents in 1921-
1928, and 53 cents in 1929. The 1921-1928 average was 103 percent
of 1910-1914, and the 1929 average was 84 percent. This unfavorable
showing is partly due to the fact that barley was relatively higher
than the other feed grains in the pre-war period. For 1910-1914 the
value of a pound of barley at the average Illinois farm price was
1.31 cents, compared with 1.04 cents for corn and 1.19 cents for oats.
During the earlier period barley enjoyed a special cash market as a raw
material for the brewing of beer, which fact raised its price above the
level of other feed grain prices.
The barley situation strengthened during the period from 1921
to 1928. During the first four years the price averaged 96 percent
of the 1910-1914 price; during the last four years it averaged 110
percent of 1910-1914.
footnote page 526.
532
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
Prohibition has reduced the demand for barley. The 50 million
bushels of barley used annually by brewers before the war consti-
tuted approximately 30 percent of the barley crop. Available data
indicate the quantity used in the manufacture of malt products has
been considerably less than this.
The reduction of the demand for barley for brewing made neces-
sary the increased use of the foreign market for this grain. Exports
of barley were very irregular in the pre-war period. During the five
years beginning July 1, 1909, they averaged about 8 million bushels
FIG. 6.— BARLEY 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
From 1921 to 1928 the general trend in barley prices was upward. The
peak in 1924-25 was followed by a decline which continued until September,
1926. The price then rose steadily until May, 1928, when it declined sharply.
During 1929 a very low level prevailed.
annually. During the six years beginning July 1, 1920, and ending
June 30, 1927, they average 24 million bushels annually, a figure which
was three times the pre-war average, and during the next two years,
July 1, 1927, to June 30, 1929, they increased to an average of about
50 million bushels annually.
Until 1927 the acreage of barley in the United States was barely
maintained at the pre-war level of 7 to 8 million acres, but in 1927
and 1928 it was sharply increased. There were 12.6 million acres
harvested in 1928. Estimated world production outside of China and
Russia for 1921-1928 was practically the same as the 1909-1913
average.
Farmers in the United States reacted to the relatively low barley
prices by reducing the quantities which they marketed even tho they
did not reduce acreages. Estimates of the quantities marketed aver-
aged 95 million bushels for the 1910-1914 crops and about 65 million
bushels for the 1921-1926 crops. The sum of the amounts by which
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 533
marketings decreased and exports increased just about equalled the
decline in the quantity used in brewing. But the quantities marketed
from the 1927 and 1928 crops increased to an average of a little over
100 million bushels as a result of the increase in exports stimulated
by an expansion in livestock production in northern Europe and by
short feed crops in various foreign countries.
Imports of barley are very small, usually amounting to only a few
thousand bushels annually. Barley is one of the few farm products
the import duty on which was lower in the Tariff Act of 1922 than
in the Act of 1909, the rate having been reduced from 30 to 20 cents
a bushel.1 This duty had little or no effect on the Illinois farm price
during the period under consideration. The principal reasons for the
relatively low level of barley prices during this period were the reduc-
tion of the special demand for the grain in the manufacture of malt
liquors and the generally lower level of prices for feed crops.
The price of barley has tended to reach a point which measures its
comparative value as a feed. At the average Illinois farm prices from
1924 to 1928 the value of a pound of barley was 1.44 cents compared
with 1.41 cents for corn and 1.31 cents for oats. The close agreement
between the value of barley and corn per pound indicates that changes
in the level of barley prices during the next few years will depend on
the trends in the price of corn.
CORN AND HOGS
The situations for corn and hogs are similar. The Illinois farm
prices of both averaged in 1921-1928 about one-fourth higher than
in 1910-1914. It is not surprising that the prices of these two products
had about the same relative position. The largest single use to which
corn is put in the country as a whole is to feed hogs ; hence the price
at which hogs can be marketed has a great influence on the price of
corn over a period of years. Conditions that have made possible the
relatively large production of hogs during 1921-1928 have operated to
hold down the price of both corn and hogs in this period.
Corn
The average price of corn per bushel by periods was 1910-1914,
58 cents ; 1921-1928, 72 cents; and 1929, 84 cents. The 1921-1928 price
was 124 percent of the 1910-1914 price. During the first four years,
1921-1924, the price averaged 112 percent of 1910-1914; and during
the second four, 1925-1928, it averaged 136 percent.
'See footnote page 526.
534
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
This relatively low price cannot be explained on the basis of in-
creased production. For the eight years 1920-1927 the corn crops of
this country averaged only about 6 percent larger than in 1909-1913.
The small increase in corn crops during the 1920-1927 period was
caused entirely by favorable yields per acre during the first half of
the period. Comparative acreages and yields in the first and second
halves of the period were as follows:
Acreages of corn
Yields of corn.. .
1920-1923 1924-1927
(Percentage of 1909-1913)
99 96
113 98
Relative Stability of Corn Acreages. The acreage of corn is more
stable than the acreage of any of the other major crops of the
country except possibly hay. This is illustrated by the data in Table 2.
TABLE 2. — AVERAGE YEARLY CHANGE IN ACREAGE, YIELD, AND TOTAL PRODUCTION
OF SELECTED CROPS IN UNITED STATES, 1900-1926
(Expressed in percentage variation from previous year)
Crop
Acreage
Yield per acre
Total production
Corn .'
2 6
13 0
14.5
Cotton
8 0
11.2
16.9
Flaxseed
20.3
20.6
29.0
Tame hay
2 5
8.2
10.0
Oats
3.2
17.0
17.6
Potatoes
4.9
17.1
19.7
Tobacco
10 1
5.0
10.0
Wheat, winter, harvested1
Planted1
14.9
7.3
9.5
16.5
18.1
18.1
Wheat, spring1
9.4
32.6
30.7
U910-1926 instead of 1900-1926.
The United States acreage of corn each year from 1900 to 1926 varied
from the previous year by an average of only 2.6 percent. Compara-
able figures for other important crops are tame hay, 2.5 percent ; oats,
3.2 percent; winter wheat (planted acreage), 7.3 percent; and cotton,
8.0 percent. These figures indicate that the acreage of corn has not
reacted in response to price changes in the same way as have the acre-
ages of two other major crops, wheat and cotton. Expansion in corn
acreage has not taken place in response to favorable price because the
acreage of good corn land is limited, and all regions where conditions
are favorable now grow the crop extensively. Moreover, there is a
limit to the proportion of land which can be put into corn on individual
farms without developing an unbalanced business.
For various reasons farmers do not readily reduce the acreages
planted to corn. First, the crop has a fixed position in the crop rota-
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 535
tion in many parts of the country. Second, most of the crop is grown
for feed purposes and hence its producers are not directly influenced
by its price. Third, much of the acreage is on high-priced land which
tends to remain in cultivation irrespective of conditions. Fourth, the
weather has much to do with the final yield; from 1900 to 1926 the
yield per acre varied, on an average, by 13 percent from that of the
previous year. This is five times the variation that occurred in acreage.
The acreage of corn in the United States during the 1924-1927
period averaged 4 percent less than in 1909-1913. If there had not
been expansion in the acreage of corn in parts of the North-Central
states, where diversified farming was replacing a system in which
wheat production was the major feature, the acreage of corn would
have been further reduced. The maintenance of acreage in the face
of low prices indicates that in the opinion of farmers corn production
was a more profitable method of utilizing the land planted to corn than
any other which was available.
Changes in Utilization of Corn. There have been some changes
in the uses to which the corn crops of the United States have been put
in recent years. The decline in the number of horses has somewhat
reduced the demand for corn as well as for other feed grains. More-
over, the steady decline in number of beef cattle in this country from
1921 to 1928 temporarily reduced the quantity of feed required by that
branch of agriculture. The changes in cattle numbers are discussed
at greater length on pages 543 to 547.
The quantity of corn used as human food in this country has ap-
parently declined, and increases in quantities used by corn-products
factories have not been sufficient to maintain the commercial demand
for corn. The quantities of corn ground into meal in merchant mills
is reported by the Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Com-
merce, to have been as follows:
Corn ground into meal (millions of bushels)
1909.. . 209.3 1923.. . 125.2
1914 180.1 1925 105.3
1919 113.8 1927 92.7
1921 122.2
The quantities for the four years from 1921 to 1927 for which
figures are available averaged 111 million bushels, compared with an
average of 195 million in 1909 and 1914. This indicates a decline of
nearly 100 million bushels in the quantities used annually for the manu-
facture of corn meal. The figures above indicate that there has been a
decrease each year since 1923 for which figures are available. This
decline indicates a shift away from direct use of cereals as human food.
536 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
Reports of the Commissioner of Internal Revenue indicate that
about 15 million fewer bushels of corn and 10 million fewer bushels
of other grains were used annually by licensed distilleries in recent
years than before 1914. This decline is the result of competition with a
cheaper raw material, black-strap molasses, for the quantity of alcohol
legally manufactured has increased rather than decreased between the
periods under consideration. Before 1914 it appears that about 15
million bushels of corn were used annually by brewers.
Partly offsetting these declines in the consumption of corn for the
uses noted above has been a rapid increase in the quantity used by
corn-products factories making such products as starch, corn sugar,
and gluten. The quantities ground by these plants annually averaged
48.1 million bushels in 1913-1914; 66.7 million bushels in 1921-1924;
and 79.7 million bushels in 1925-1928. There has also developed a
market for several million bushels of corn in the manufacture of butyl
alcohol, which is used in the manufacture of lacquers. On the whole,
however, these new industrial uses for corn have not expanded suffi-
ciently to offset the decline in other uses, particularly in the manufac-
ture of corn meal. The net quantity by which the corn absorbed in
this country in industrial uses has declined has been available for
export or for feed.
Quantities of corn marketed in this country, as measured by esti-
mates of the U. S. Department of Agriculture of quantities shipped
from the county where grown, indicate a decline in commercial uses
of corn. Averages based on these estimates, together with figures
showing exports and quantities apparently available for commercial
uses other than export, for selected periods, follow:
Available for
Shipped from commercial
county where uses other
grown Exported than export
Corn crops (Millions of bushels annually)
1909-1913 580 41 539
1920-1923 603 92 511
1924-1927 486 18 468
Altho the above figures furnish only a crude measure of the quanti-
ties of corn marketed, they indicate that the quantity marketed during
the 1920-1923 period .was kept above the pre-war level only by large ex-
ports, an increase of about 50 million bushels in exports a year more
than offsetting a decline of about 30 million bushels in other com-
mercial uses. In the more recent period, 1924-1927, both exports and
other commercial uses declined so that the quantity marketed aver-
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 537
aged about 90 million bushels less than for the 1909-1913 crops. The
70 million bushels represent a decline of 20 million bushels in exports
and a decline of 70 million in other uses. These 90 million bushels
have been available for various farm uses and have helped to keep the
production of pork at a high level.
Exports and Imports. The large crops and low prices from 1920
to 1923 led to increased exports of corn. The average annual exports
by periods beginning on July 1 of the years indicated were as follows:
Millions of bushels
Corn exports annually
1909-1913 41
1920-1923 92
1924-1927 18
Exports averaged larger during the period of large production and
low prices (1920-1923) than during the following four years. These
larger exports absorbed the surplus corn marketed during these four
years and strengthened prices even tho such exports were made in a
period of very low prices. The difference in corn exports between
1920-1923 and 1924-1927 illustrates the normal situation with respect
to corn exports. We export in volume usually only at bargain prices.
It is only rarely that we can export a considerable volume of corn
at favorable prices. We were able to do this in marketing the 1928
crop because of short corn crops and expanded livestock production
in certain foreign countries. During the years when our exports have
been small, a large part of them have gone to Canada.
World production of corn has not increased much in this post-war
period. Estimated world production exclusive of Russia averaged
4,140,000 bushels for 1909-1913 and 4,380,000 bushels for 1920-1927,
an increase of about 6 percent. The small amount of this increase is
not surprising in view of the fact that the United States production,
which makes up such a large part of the world production, has not
increased. The increase of 240 million bushels does indicate, however,
that there has been a rather marked increase in foreign countries.
The imports of corn into this country are very small, the yearly
average since 1921 having been slightly less than 2 million bushels. Im-
ports were largest during the years beginning July 1, 1924 and 1927,
when they amounted to 4,618,000 and 5,463,000 bushels respectively.
The import duty of 15 cents a bushel in effect during this period raised
the price level slightly when corn was high in price but had no influence
at other times. An increase in this duty would make the price rise
slightly higher when corn is scarce, but would have no influence during
538 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
the greater part of the time.1 It would therefore tend toward greater
variability in corn prices but would have little influence on the average
price over a series of years.
Corn Prices as Related to Hog Prices and Production. An im-
portant factor in determining the level of corn prices has been the
level at which our hog production could be sold. Hog prices for 1921-
1928 averaged 124 percent of 1910-1914 prices, or were in the same
relative position as corn prices. This level of hog prices seems to
have been due in large measure to increased output of pork. The fact
that such a large part of the corn crop goes to market in the form
of hogs makes it inevitable that the prices of corn and hogs will main-
tain approximately the same relative position over a series of years.
Hogs
The average Illinois farm prices of hogs, per 100 pounds, were
$7.44 in 1910-1914; $9.23 in 1921-1928; and $9.78 in 1929. The 1921-
1928 price averaged 124 percent of the 1910-1914 price. In the second
four years the price was considerably higher than in the first. Prices
for 1921-1924 averaged 106 percent and for 1925-1928, 143 percent
of the 1910-1914 price.
Unlike corn, pork was produced in substantially larger amounts
during the eight-year period 1921-1928 than in the pre-war years
1910-1914.
Official estimates of slaughter 1921-1924 1925-1928
Pork (Percentage of 1910-1914)
Total slaughter 137
Inspected slaughter 149 147
Lard
Total slaughter 147
Inspected slaughter 180 165
While the production of corn during 1924-1927 averaged slightly
below the pre-war production, the estimated production of pork in
1925-1928 was 35 percent and that of lard 47 percent above pre-war
production. In spite of the fact that pork and lard production were
nearly as large in 1925-1928 as in 1921-1924, Illinois farm prices for
hogs averaged about 35 percent higher in the second period than in the
first. This suggests a strengthened demand situation.
Comparative numbers of hogs do not indicate any such increase in
hog production as do the figures that have just been given. Averages
of the estimated number of hogs on farms in the United States on
January 1 for selected periods were as follows:
'See footnote page 526.
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 539
Percent of
Hogs on farms January 1 Number 1910-1914
1910-1914 53,300,000 100.0
1921-1928 59,600,000 111.7
1921-1924 63,400,000 118.9
1925-1928 ! 55,800,000 104.5
For the 1921-1928 period there were only 12 percent more hogs on
farms in the United States than for the pre-war period. During the
four-year period 1925-1928 the number was only about 4 percent above
pre-war. If these estimates of numbers and the slaughter figures given
above are both correct, there has been a considerable increase in the
rate of turnover in the business, and the annual output of pork per hog
on farms on January 1 has been greatly increased.
Why Has Pork Production Increased Relatively More Than Corn
Crops? Granted that there may be some error in the estimates either
of pork production or of numbers of hogs on farms during the above
periods, it would appear that the increase in pork production has been
relatively larger than the increase in corn production since 1920, and
that the margin between the two products was wider in 1925-1928 than
in 1921-1924. Is there any explanation for this variation between the
output of corn and hogs? Four factors have contributed: (1) the
decline in feed needed for other farm animals, (2) the decline in the
total quantity of corn used commercially, (3) a shift in hog production
to areas where production is more efficient, and (4) more efficient pork
production. The first two of these factors have been discussed in the
section dealing with corn. We shall therefore deal here only with the
last two factors.
The exact extent to which shifts in centers of production are in-
fluenced by efficiency of production is difficult to measure, but unques-
tionably this factor has had an influence on pork production during the
period under consideration. Rather significant changes took place in
the geographical distribution of hogs between 1920 and 1925 and very
slight changes between 1925 and 1929. In 1920 about 37 percent of
the hogs in the United States were in the West North-Central states ;
in 1925 the proportion had increased to 50 percent. In 1920, 31 percent
of the hogs of the country were in the South Atlantic and South
Central states ; in 1925 only 20 percent. Changes in other sections
were small, altho there was a tendency for production in both the
North- Atlantic and East North-Central states to decline in relative im-
portance. This tendency toward concentration, which has brought half
of the hogs in the country into the West North-Central states, where
hog production is conducted rather efficiently, accounts for a part of
the increase in the output of pork.
540
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
The influence of the adoption of improved practices on the volume
of pork produced is difficult to measure but undoubtedly it has been
substantial. Theoretically the influence which the general adoption of
certain improved practices may have is very large. Lack of definite
knowledge as to how widely these practices have been adopted makes
exact analysis of the question very difficult. The small amount of ex-
pense involved in the adoption of some of these practices suggests,
M*.
/928 /929
FIG. 7.— HOGS 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
The trend in the price of hogs since 1921 may be divided into two periods:
one of relatively low and declining prices which ended in midsummer of 1924,
and one of higher prices since that time. Shorter crops of corn in the second
period and a better demand for pork have made possible a better balance be-
tween production and demand.
however, that improvements have had considerable to do with the in-
crease in pork production. Reduction of losses from hog cholera be-
tween the periods under consideration is one of the important factors
in this increase in the efficiency of pork production.
It should be noted that all four factors that have been mentioned —
namely, reduction in. feed requirements of other types of animals, de-
cline in the quantity of corn used commercially, concentration of hog
production in areas where production is efficient, and the adoption of
improved practices — are permanent influences. A series of large corn
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 541
crops such as this country experienced from 1919 to 1923 inevitably
results in increased production of pork but the influence is only tem-
porary. Once the crop is consumed it can have no further effect. But
the increase caused by such factors as are enumerated above tends to
remain permanent. Relatively large corn crops played an important
part in the increased production of pork from 1921 to 1924, but no
part after 1924.
Whatever the causes for the increased output of pork during 1921-
1928, the increase has operated to reduce prices of both hogs and corn.
The level of corn prices cannot rise for any length of time above the
level of hog prices. If corn prices rise too high in relation to hog
prices, hog production will be curtailed because it will become more
attractive for some farmers to sell corn than to feed it to hogs. More-
over, hog prices cannot rise above corn prices for any length of time
because such favorable hog prices would stimulate the production of
hogs and reduce the sale of corn.
This increased output of pork during a period when corn produc-
tion was not quite holding its own is one of the most important factors
in the relatively low prices for these products.
Domestic Consumption and Exports of Pork and Lard. The in-
crease in the production of pork noted above made it possible to main-
tain the per capita consumption of meat in this country during 1921-
1928 slightly above the 1910-1914 level and to permit exports of meat
in the period as a whole to exceed the pre-war level. The data for
different classes of meat are shown in Table 3.
The apparent per capita consumption of pork and exports of pork
during the periods under consideration averaged as follows:
Consumption of Pork
1910-1914. .
Total
Domestic exports
Pounds per Millions of
capita pounds
61.7 422
1921-1928
69 3 601
1921-1924
69 8 795
1925-1928..
68.9 406
Thus pork exports, which were nearly double the pre-war level in
1921-1924, declined in 1925-1928 to a point slightly below the pre-war
level. The decline in exports between 1921-1924 and 1925-1928 helped
to maintain the per capita meat consumption in this country. If we
continue our domestic meat consumption at the level of recent years,
it appears likely that all the pork produced in this country will be re-
quired for domestic consumption within a comparatively short period.
This does not mean that exports will cease, but that they will be con-
542
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
TABLE 3. — INDEX NUMBERS OF PRODUCTION, EXPORTS, TOTAL CONSUMPTION, AND
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MEAT AND LARD IN THE UNITED STATES, 1921-1928
(1910-1914 average = 100)
Product
Inspected
slaughter
Total
slaughter
Exports
1921-1928
Consumption
Total
Per capita
Beef...
124.2
206.2
148.0
86.2
134.9
173.0
111.1
147.5
135.8
85.8
122.8
151.0
49.4
0
142.4
75.0
127.1
162.2
112.3
148.6
135.0
86.5
122.6
145.4
93.3
117.2
112.3
73.0
102.1
120.9
Veal
Pork
Lamb and mutton
Total meat
Lard
fined to those pork products which the foreign markets will take on a
strong price basis.
The production of lard per capita also averaged larger in 1921-1928
than in 1910-1914. The amount of lard available for consumption per
person in the United States, after allowing for the actual exports, and
also the exports of lard averaged as follows:
Consumption of lard
1910-1914. .
Domestic
Pounds per
capita
11.5
Total
exports
Millions of
pounds
519
1921-1928
13.9
842
1921-1924
14.0
941
1925-1928..
13.8
742
It will be observed that exports of lard held up better in 1925-1928
than exports of pork.
Altho lard has been relatively cheaper than the leading kinds of
pork cuts, comparative prices of heavy and light hogs apparently have
not differed sufficiently to overcome the desire of farmers to convert
available feed supplies into hogs of the heavier type, which yield more
lard. The tendency for hog production to concentrate in the corn belt
has of course favored the production of the heavier type of hog. Pack-
ing-house practice may also have tended to increase the production of
lard in proportion to pork. In view of the apparent tendency toward a
better balance between production and demand for meat than for fats,
there should be a tendency for meat prices to rise in relation to lard
prices. Under these conditions prices of different types of hogs should
more fully reflect the less favorable market position of lard.
Production of Fats. Not only has the output of lard in this country
been large, but also the output of fats and oils generally. The quan-
tities of fats consumed annually in the United States in 1914, 1920-
1921, and 1925-1926 have been reported as follows:1
'Wright, Philip G.
millan Co. 1928.
The tariff on animal and vegetable oils, 266-267. Mac-
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 543
1914 1920-1921 1925-1926
Consumption of fats (Millions of pounds annually)
Vegetable oils. 2,501 2,207 3,452
Animal and fish oils and fats 2,793 3,055 3,876
Total 5,294 5,262 7,328
Index of production 100% 99.4% 138.4%
These figures include, not only the principal food fats and oils, such
as lard, butter, and cottonseed oil, but also the paint oils such as linseed,
and the soap oils such as palm oil, greases, and tallow. The combined
figures indicate that while the annual consumption for 1920-1921 barely
equalled that of 1914, the consumption in 1925-1926 was nearly 40 per-
cent larger than in 1914. It has further increased since 1926.
This rapid increase in the output of fats generally has tended to
depress lard prices and to hold down hog values.
Influence of Foreign Conditions. As shown above, the exports
from this country of both pork and lard during 1921-1928 exceeded the
pre-war level. During the latter years of the period, exports of pork
exclusive of lard tended to fall off, while exports of lard held up. The
buying powers of European countries were weakened by the war.
The necessity of selling large exports in a weak foreign market has
tended to lower prices in this country. The basic reason for the large
exports and low prices was the increase in production in this country.
The estimated number of hogs in the world averaged about the
same in 1921-1925 as in 1909-1913 ; estimates for 1909-1913 are 261
million head and for 1921-1925, 259 million. Until 1925 low hog
prices in the United States, therefore, did not reflect an increase in
world numbers. From 1925 to 1928 marked increases occurred, par-
ticularly in northern European countries. This increase has lowered
the demand for our pork and lard.
We have import duties on swine and the important hog products,
but because of the large and continuous exports of pork and pork
products, it is obvious that these duties have very little influence on
hog prices in this country.1 Very few swine and very small quantities
of pork are imported into the United States, but the necessity of ex-
porting large quantities of pork, and particularly of lard, cause foreign
conditions to be of significance to our corn and hog producers.
BEEF CATTLE, MILK COWS, AND VEAL CALVES
Ranking next to corn and hogs on the basis of relative prices for
the 1921-1928 period are cattle and milk cows. During 1929, however,
'See footnote page 526.
544 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
their prices were much higher. The position of the price of cattle and
the price of milk cows in relation to pre-war prices has been practically
identical during this period, and the two may properly be discussed
together.
During 1921-1928 the farm price of both milk cows and other cattle
averaged 126 percent of the 1910-1914 price; but in 1929 the price of
milk cows averaged 186 percent of pre-war prices, and the price of
other cattle, 177 percent. The price of cattle was in a favorable posi-
tion in our base period, 1910-1914, a circumstance tending to lower the
indexes for other years. The period from 1921 to 1926 was in the
low portion of the cattle cycle. When we compare the averages of
1921-1928 with 1910-1914, we are in fact comparing prices near the
bottom of a cattle cycle with prices near the top. With the level of
cattle prices so high during the base period, it is evident that the index
figure of 177 for 1929 represents an extremely high price.
Beef Cattle
The chief product of the beef -cattle industry is meat. The relative
production and consumption of various kinds of meat in the United
States are shown in Table 3, page 542. These figures are based on the
slaughter in federally inspected plants and estimates of slaughter on
farms and elsewhere as compiled by the U. S. Department of Agri-
culture.
For the entire eight-year period 1921-1928, 11 percent more beef
was available for consumption annually in the United States than for
the five-year period 1910-1914. The increase as measured by output
in inspected plants, was somewhat higher, averaging 24 percent larger
than in the earlier period. Production did not keep pace, however,
with the increase in population. The consumption of beef per person
averaged 63.8 pounds in 1910-1914 and 59.5 pounds in 1921-1928, or
about 7 percent below the pre-war figure. During the portion of this
post-war period in which prices ruled low, namely, from 1921 to 1926,
per capita consumption of beef averaged 61.0 pounds, or only 3 percent
less than the pre-war average. The 51.7 pounds per capita available
in 1928 corresponded to only 81 percent of the 1910-1914 average,
being the lowest of any year since 1900.
Beef has to compete with other meats, and so a word about the
meat situation as a whole may be in order at this point. During 1921-
1928 production of all meats (beef, pork, veal, lamb, and mutton), aver-
aged 123 percent of 1910-1914. This made possible a per capita con-
sumption about 2 percent larger and total exports about 27 percent
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
545
larger than in the pre-war period. This indicates that during the period
as a whole meats were more abundant than in 1910-1914, principally be-
cause of the increased output of pork. During 1921-1926 the meat
output was such that the per capita consumption was 3 percent larger
and exports were 46 percent larger than during 1910-1914. But dur-
FIG. 8.— BEEF CATTLE AND VEAL CALVES 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY
ILLINOIS FARM PRICES
The trend in the price of beef cattle was distinctly upward thruout the
above period, but the level was low until the sharp rise which occurred during
1927. Rather short cycles, which carried the price first up and then down, are
to be noted. The trend in veal calf prices was even more steadily upward.
This tendency to rise seems to have terminated for both commodities in 1928-29.
ing 1928 the output of meat was reduced so that the per capita con-
sumption was about 1 percent below and exports 29 percent below pre-
war. The decrease in 1928 chiefly reflected decline in the production
of beef. Pork production continued at a high level.
Changes in Numbers of Cattle. During the entire period from 1921
to 1928 the number of cattle in this country was being reduced in re-
sponse to the low cattle prices that prevailed down to the middle of
546 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
1927. The estimated number of cattle on farms in the United States
on January 1, 1921, was 67.2 million. Seven years later, on January 1,
1928, the number had been reduced to 55.7 million, a decline of 11.5
million head. The animals that were marketed in order to accomplish
this reduction tended to swell current market receipts and largely ac-
counted for the increased output of beef during this period. The end
of this liquidation caused such a shortage of beef that from the fall of
1927 into 1929 cattle prices averaged higher than during any previous
peace-time period. It is such periods of liquidation followed by periods
of expansion that cause the rather definite cycles that occur in the
prices of cattle. A declining price causes farmers and ranchmen to cut
down the size of their herds. These sales swell market receipts and
force prices lower. Finally liquidation runs its course, prices react
sharply, stockmen begin to increase their herds, market receipts are
reduced, and prices rise to a higher level. The liquidation in the cattle
industry which took place between 1921 and 1928 brought the number
of cattle in the United States to slightly below the 1910-1914 average.
The nature of cattle production delayed the readjustment in cattle
prices during the 1921-1928 period. With cattle the turnover is rela-
tively slow, and several years are required to expand numbers very
materially and a similar interval to reduce them. Furthermore a com-
paratively small amount of labor is involved in raising cattle, whether
of beef or dairy type, because of the fact that the principal items in
their production are pasture, roughages, and feed grains. These items
have all been low in price and they have little alternative use. The
production of cattle is distinctly different from the production of milk ;
milk requires a great deal of labor, cattle very little. This explains
why cattle were cheaper than milk and its products during the 1921-
1928 period. The small amount of labor involved and the large amount
of land utilized in raising cattle will operate permanently to lower cattle
prices so long as labor is the expensive item in farm production. This
tendency was obscured during 1927, 1928, and 1929 by the shortage of
cattle caused by excessive liquidation in earlier years.
Foreign Situation. For the world as a whole the estimated number
of cattle averaged 558 million head during 1909-1913 and 643 million
during 1921-1925, an increase of about 15 percent. The United States
does not produce cattle or beef for export in significant quantities, our
exports of beef averaging only 39 million pounds per year for the 1921-
1928 period out of a total production of 6 billion, 790 million pounds.
The import duty on fresh beef was fixed in the Tariff Act of 1922
at 3 cents a pound, and on live cattle at 1% cents a pound if the animal
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 547
weighed less than 1,050 pounds and 2 cents if it weighed 1,050 pounds
or over.1 It is very likely that our prices have been increased some-
what above the world level because of these import duties, particularly
during 1927 and 1929 when supplies of beef in this country were so
severely reduced and prices of cattle rose to a rather high level.
The quarantine on the importation of chilled or frozen fresh beef
from Argentina in effect since January 1, 1927 has tended to reduce
the supply of fresh beef in this country. The effect of the quarantine,
however, on total importations may be easily exaggerated, for as a
matter of fact there were large increases in the quantities of canned
meat imported into this country from Argentina, particularly during
the recent high-price period for cattle.
Low Hide Prices. Relatively low prices for hides from 1921 to
1927 tended to reduce cattle prices. The average price of packer,
heavy steer hides at Chicago was 16.5 cents a pound in 1909-1913 and
15.5 cents in 1921-1926. There was no import duty on hides during
the 1921-1929 period; hence the low price in this country reflected
low world prices. The low level may be accounted for by increased
numbers of cattle, large accumulated stocks of hides, and decreased
consumption for certain uses, such as harness, belting, and shoes. In
1927 the price rose, because of reduced supplies, and during 1927 and
1928 averaged 21.6 cents, a figure which was about 30 percent above
the pre-war average. In 1929 it declined again.
Summary. The relatively low level of cattle prices for 1921-1926
resulted, first, from an increase in the per capita production of all
meats ; second, from an increase in market receipts of cattle caused by
liquidation ; third, from the tendency for increased marketing costs to
reduce the farm prices of those products of which surplus quantities
are available. High prices in 1927 and 1928 resulted from reduced
supplies of cattle as the liquidation ceased.
Milk Cows
Prices of milk cows follow the same general trends as prices of
beef cattle in spite of the fact that milk cows produce veal calves and
milk as well as beef. Much of the above discussion concerning prices
applies to dairy cattle as well as to beef cattle.
The number of milk cows, however, during the period under con-
sideration did not decline as did the number of all cattle. Between
January 1, 1921, and January 1, 1928, cattle of all kinds decreased by
'See footnote page 526.
548
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
11.5 million head, but the number of cows on farms increased from
21.4 million to 21.8 million, or by about half a million head. The aver-
age number of milk cows on farms on January 1, 1910-1914, was 20.7
million head compared with 22.0 million in 1921-1928. The number
in the latter period was about 6 percent larger than in the earlier
period. The most important reason for the low prices of milk cows
from 1921 to 1926 was the low value of beef cattle. The increase in
«/fU
^
xA-
/
My/
r
70.
\
A
SVV\
h^
40.
V
rv
n
•,, •
. .71'
/922
/924
/9?7 /9Z8
FIG. 9.— MILK COWS 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
From 1922 to 1927 the price of milk cows rose rather steadily, and from
September, 1927, to May, 1928, it rose rapidly. Between 1923 and 1926 it rose
from $60 to an average of about $70 and then in 1928 went to $95. In 1928
and 1929 the price was quite stable at a fairly high level.
prices of milk cows in 1927, 1928, and 1929 was to a large extent a
reflection of higher prices for beef cattle, altho favorable dairy product
prices were also an influence. The close relationship between the gen-
eral movement in the prices of the two classes of cattle is illustrated
by Fig. 2.
Veal Calves
From 1921 to 1928 the price of veal calves averaged relatively
higher than prices of either beef cattle or milk cows. The average
Illinois farm price for this period was $9.95 per 100 pounds, or 138
percent of the 1910-1914 price. Calves rose in price a year earlier than
cattle, the price in 1921-1925 averaging 123 percent of 1910-1914, and
in 1926-1928, 164 percent.
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 549
Production and, therefore, consumption of veal has increased in
recent years. The average annual production of veal for 1921-1928
was 158 percent of 1910-1914. The annual consumption per person
was only 5.8 pounds in 1910-1914 but increased to 7.7 pounds in 1921-
1928.
The low level of veal prices in 1921-1925 was the result of the low
level of beef prices and of increased marketings of calves caused by
liquidation in the cattle industry and by the tendency for dairying to
replace beef production. The higher prices after 1925 reflected higher
cattle prices and a tendency for marketings of calves to decline because
of the greater optimism in both the beef and dairy branches of the
cattle industry.
Exports of veal are of no significance. Imports averaged about
5 million pounds annually from 1921 to 1928 and about 8 million
pounds during 1927 and 1928. This latter figure amounts to about 1
percent of consumption in the United States. The import duty of
3 cents a pound probably increased the price to some extent after 1925. 1
Veal calves are largely a by-product of the dairy industry and may
be expected to vary in price with changing interest in dairying. When
numbers of cows are increasing, veal calves will tend to be higher in
price and when numbers are decreasing, they will tend to be lower. In
general veal calf prices may be expected to follow cattle prices, with a
tendency to be relatively higher because of increased demand resulting
from increased incomes of certain classes of city consumers.
WHEAT AND RYE
Since both of these crops are bread grains they have been grouped
together for discussion, altho the price of rye was relatively much
cheaper than the price of wheat during 1921-1928.
Wheat
During the period under consideration wheat averaged relatively
higher in price than other grains. The average Illinois farm price was
92 cents a bushel in 1910-1914 and $1.25 in 1921-1928. The 1921-1928
price was 136 percent of the 1910-1914 price. During the first four
years of the later period, 1921 to 1924, the price averaged 123 percent
of 1910-1914; during the next four years, 149 percent. In spite of
the higher average in the second period, the trend during the four-year
period was downward; in 1928 the price averaged 139 percent of pre-
war and in 1929 only 123 percent.
'See footnote page 526.
550 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
Both United States and world crops have averaged larger than
before the war. In the United States 49 million acres of wheat were
harvested annually during 1910-1914, and 58 million in 1921-1928,
an increase of 18 percent. The 1910-1914 crops averaged about 730
million bushels; the 1921-1928 crops, about 830 million, an increase of
100 million bushels. In 1921-1928 annual exports of wheat, including
flour, averaged about 120 million bushels larger than in 1910-1914 and
imports about 15 million bushels larger. It is obvious that domestic
consumption has not kept pace with increased population inasmuch as
net exports have increased by about the same amount as production.
The U. S. Department of Agriculture has calculated that the quantity
of wheat used per person in the United States in 1909-1913 was 5.3
bushels. The population of the United States increased by approxi-
mately 20 million between the middle years of the two periods. If
this increased population had used wheat at the pre-war rate, at least
100 million bushels would have been required to supply them. Since
production increased only about 100 million bushels, it is apparent that
exports from this country would have been reduced to below the pre-
war level if per capita consumption had not declined. On the contrary
exports increased by about 100 million bushels. A decline in the rate
of domestic consumption is clearly indicated.
This reduction in the amount of wheat consumed per person is
unquestionably related to increases in consumption of other foods,
particularly milk and its products, sugar, and certain fruits and vege-
tables, and indicates a tendency to shift from cheap to higher priced
foods. Increased incomes of large groups of people in this country, and
perhaps greater discrimination as to the dietary values of different food
materials, are factors in this shift. The growth in commercial baking,
with its increased efficiency in the use of flour, may also be a factor.
The trend in wheat acreage in this country was downward from
1922 to 1925 as a result of low prices in 1922 and 1923. Better prices
for the 1924-1926 crops led to increases in plantings, so that acreages
during 1927 and 1928 equalled the average acreage for the 1921-1928
period, which was about one-fifth larger than in 1910-1914. The mainte-
nance of the acreage of a crop as sensitive to price conditions as is
wheat at a level which made increases in exports necessary indicates
that the net returns from wheat must have compared favorably with
those from substitute crops, considering the country as a whole. Con-
ditions that favored the continued production of wheat at such a high
level were (1) relatively high prices for wheat compared with other
major crops except cotton; (2) comparatively low labor requirements;
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 551
(3) the large acreage which is grown under semiarid conditions where
no alternative crop is available; (4) the introduction of new types
of machinery, costs being thus reduced and larger acreages grown
with the same number of men.
World wheat crops have averaged larger than before the war. Ex-
clusive of Russia and China, the average estimated world production
in 1909-1913 was 3,040 million bushels; in 1921-1928, 3,440; in 1921-
1924, 3,270; and in 1925-1928, 3,560.
For the 1921-1928 period as a whole world crops averaged about
13 percent larger than in 1909-1913 and for the four years, 1925-
1928, about 17 percent larger than for the pre-war period. This con-
trasts with the world rye production in 1921-1928 which, exclusive of
Russia and China, was about 140 million bushels, or 13 percent below
the 1909-1913 average.
It should be noted that wheat prices averaged higher in 1925-1928
than in 1921-1924 in spite of the fact that world wheat crops averaged
nearly 300 million bushels larger during the second period. Obvi-
ously the demand was better in the second period.
This country exported about 230 million bushels of wheat a year,
on the average, during this period and imported about 15 million
bushels a year in spite of import duties of 30 and 42 cents a bushel
in effect during different parts of this period.1 Wheat was imported
at the same time that it was exported, chiefly because of certain quality
or locational advantage of the imported wheat. Imports consist chiefly
of high-protein wheat from Canada at points such as Buffalo and New
York, where Canadian wheat can be delivered cheaper than much of
our domestic crop. Our exports are usually lower in protein content
than are the imports and therefore are poorer wheats for milling into
our more common types of flour. The duty raises the prices of the bet-
ter types of hard wheat whenever these are scarce, but it probably has
little influence on prices received by Illinois farmers for wheat one year
with another.
The future position of United States wheat prices depends on the
trend in world production. It has been noted that the price averaged
considerably better from 1925 to 1928 than from 1921 to 1924 in spite
of a considerable increase in world wheat crops. During 1927 and
1928, however, it averaged lower than in 1925 and 1926 and it became
still lower in 1929. Apparently this country will continue to produce
wheat in quantities which will make either a large volume of exports
or very heavy feeding to livestock necessary for some years to come.
'See footnote page 526.
552
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
Hence the general level of wheat prices in this country will be based
on the world level, altho the prices of those classes of wheat in par-
ticular demand for milling, such as the high-protein hard wheats and
the better qualities of soft wheats, will at times sell at premiums as
compared with the general level of wheat prices. The amount of these
premiums will vary, as they have in the past, with variations in the
supply of the particular class of wheat in question. The higher prices
A/met
ttao
160
FIG. 10.— WHEAT AND RYE 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICES
The low point in wheat prices came in 1923, or nearly two years later
than for corn and oats. The post-war peak of wheat prices occurred in 1925,
and since early in 1926 the general trend has been downward. Variations in
rye prices have in general been similar to those in wheat prices.
from 1925 to 1928 indicate an improved level of demand which will
probably continue. But if world production continues at the rate of
recent years or expands further, the higher level of 1925-1928 (150
percent of 1910-1914) cannot be maintained. '
Rye
Rye is a minor crop in Illinois, but its post-war price position is of
considerable interest. The Illinois farm price of 89 cents for 1921-
1928 was 122 percent of the average 1910-1914 price, while the price
of 92 cents in 1929 was 126 percent of the pre-war average. Rye has
therefore been relatively cheaper than wheat, the price of which during
1921-1928 averaged 136 percent of 1910-1914.
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 553
Before the war, exports of rye from this country were negligible.
Out of a crop which averaged 2.3 million acres and 37.5 million bushels
from 1910 to 1914, exports averaged only about 1 million bushels
annually until an unusual demand was created in 1914 by the World
War. Europe supplied its requirements of rye from sources which
were willing to produce rye at prices which were too low to be at-
tractive to farmers in this country. During the war United States
production increased, and from 1921 to 1928 the acreage averaged
about 90 percent larger than from 1910 to 1914. Production increased
only about 60 percent, indicating that the expansion in acreage took
place in areas having low acre-yields.
This increased production was largely exported. These large ex-
ports definitely tied our prices to the world market. The comparative
world crops of wheat and rye indicate a tendency for wheat to re-
place rye. Exclusive of Russia and China, world wheat crops during
1921-1928 were 13 percent larger than during 1909-1913, while the rye
crops averaged 13 percent smaller than for the pre-war period.
The low level of rye prices has led to a decline in acreage in this
country from a point more than double pre-war in 1921 to a point
which in 1928 was only about 50 percent above pre-war. The small
amount of labor required for rye production and the low quality of
much of the land on which it is grown tends to retard further re-
duction in acreage.
SHEEP, LAMBS, AND WOOL
Sheep have been relatively cheaper than either wool or lambs. Com-
pared with 1910-1914, Illinois farm prices for the three commodities
have averaged as follows:
Sheep Wool Lambs
Illinois farm prices (Percentage of 1910-1914)
1921-1928 139 163 186
1921 96 80 120
1922-1924 130 165 176
1925-1928 155 182 209
1929 156 175 212
The 1921 prices for these three items are shown separately because
prices for all three commodities during that year of liquidation were
so far below the average of the period. The averages for 1922-1924
were well above those for 1921 for all three items, and the averages
in 1925-1928 were similarly above the average for the three previous
years. Thruout the eight years the three have maintained the same
relative position, with sheep relatively lowest and lambs highest in
price.
554
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
The prices of both sheep and lambs were relatively low from 1910
to 1914, the period which is used as a basis of comparison in this study.
This circumstance tends to make the indexes of the prices of sheep
JAK M4t U*T JAH J4K.
19*1 /9ff /9t3 /9Z4 t9f5
J4M MM
1027
/929
FIG. 11.— SHEEP AND LAMBS 1921 TO DECEMBER, 1929, MONTHLY
ILLINOIS FARM PRICES
The general trend of both sheep and lamb prices was upward from the low
level of 1921 to the winter of 1924-25. The greatest increase occurred between
October, 1921 and April, 1922. From the early spring of 1925 to the middle
of 1929 the direction of the trend has been horizontal or slightly downward,
at a general level of about $6.50 per 100 pounds for sheep and $12.50 for lambs.
A marked seasonal variation may be noted, particularly in the price of lambs.
and lambs appear more favorable from 1922 to 1928 than they would
have if a longer period had been used as a base. But on any basis of
calculation these products would appear relatively high-priced from
1922 to 1928.
It is probable that the demand for lambs is somewhat stronger than
it was before the war. Increasing demand is indicated by an Illinois
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 555
farm price of lambs which during 1925-1928 was 109 percent higher
than in 1910-1914, when the per capita consumption of lamb was only
27 percent less than in 1910-1914. Moreover, the increased incomes
which have been enjoyed by large groups of urban consumers during
recent years would naturally tend to increase the demand for a high-
priced food such as lamb. In spite of the fact that the per capita con-
sumption was larger in 1925-1928 than in 1922-1924, prices of lambs
averaged about 20 percent higher in the more recent period.
The principal reasons for the high prices during this period were
reduced market supplies, keen demand for breeding stock, which is
characteristic of a period when expansion is taking place in any species
of livestock, and probably an improved demand.
The number of sheep in the world has averaged less since 1921
than from 1909 to 1913 ; the latest estimates of the number of sheep in
the world indicate an average of 687 million in 1909-1913 and 633
million in 1921-1925. The number has increased steadily since 1921,
however, and is probably now well above the pre-war average.
There is no source from which fresh lamb or mutton may be im-
ported in any large quantity into the United States, and consumers
have indicated that they do not care for the frozen or chilled product.
Exports of lamb and mutton for 1921-1928 averaged about 3 million
pounds annually and imports about 6 million pounds. Beginning with
1924, imports have been smaller than this, averaging only about 2
million pounds. The rates of import duty provided by the Tariff Act
of 1922 ($2 a head for live sheep or lambs, 2% cents a pound for
mutton, and 4 cents for lamb) were higher than were the rates in the
Act of 1909, and perhaps checked imports of lamb somewhat but prob-
ably had but little influence on the price.1 The high prices reflected
the keen demand for the relatively small supply in the domestic market.
Wool
International conditions have more to do with wool prices than
with lamb prices. During 1921-1928 the estimated production of wool,
both in the United States and in the world, averaged below the pre-
war level. In the United States the estimated production was 298
million pounds, or 97 percent of the 1910-1914 average. Consump-
tion in the United States was maintained by increased imports, which
averaged about 55 percent above the pre-war period. Annual consump-
tion of wool was apparently 20 percent larger in 1921-1928 than in
1910-1914. The ability of the United States to attract increased im-
lSee footnote page 526.
556
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
ports in spite of reduced production abroad was evidence of our strong
economic position in world markets during this period.
World wool prices were at a high level during 1921-1928. From
1910 to 1914 Australian (New South Wales) scoured wool averaged
45 cents a pound on the London market ; from 1922 to 1928 Australian
(Queensland superior combing) scoured wool averaged $1 a pound
in the London market. The post-war price was 222 percent of the
1921 102!
FIG. 12. — WOOL 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
Between October, 1921, and November, 1922, the farm price of wool in-
creased nearly 200 percent. During 1923, 1924, and 1925 an approximate level
of 37.5 cents a pound was maintained. During the next two years the price
was lower, but during the early part of 1928 there was a sharp advance, which
culminated in the highest point of the entire eight-year period in June, 1928.
Since then the trend has been downward.
pre-war price. It is difficult to compare wool prices because of differ-
ences in grade, and a part of this difference likely reflects differences
in the quality of the two grades. The post-war figures indicate that
prices were rather high. Prices in trade centers in this country also
averaged high. In 1910-1914 the price of a certain grade of wool
(Ohio, 56's, % blood, strictly combing) averaged 27.8 cents a pound,
and in 1922-1928, 51 cents a pound, or 183 percent of the pre-war
price. These price levels reflected reduced supplies of wool and an
active demand.
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 557
The United States price is helped by an import duty. With such
large imports in relation to domestic supply, no other conclusion is
possible. The import duty on wool was fixed in the Tariff Act of 1922
at 31 cents a pound for scoured wool, compared with 33 or 36 cents
in the Act of 1909 depending on the grade.1
Summary of Sheep and Sheep Products
Prices for sheep, wool, and lambs in the United States are likely
to continue at a relatively high average level, altho intermittent
periods of liquidation will result in periods when lower prices prevail.
Wool production is not likely to expand to a point where prices will
not be aided by import duties.
The lamb output from our present flocks will probably be absorbed
at relatively favorable prices, altho at somewhat lower levels than those
which have prevailed from 1925 to 1928. The fact that prices have
been attractive in relation to costs is indicated by the rapid increase in
numbers. The rise in cattle prices will tend to reduce the relative ad-
vantage of sheep production and this will tend to check further ex-
pansion in number of sheep.2
The fundamental reason for these high prices was a reduction in
numbers. The estimated number of sheep on farms in the United
States on January 1 averaged as follows: 1910-1914, 43.2 million head;
1921-1928, 39.0 million; 1925-1928, 41.1 million; 1929, 47.5 million.
Not until 1928 was the pre-war average reached.
Estimates of meat production also indicate that production of lamb
and mutton has not kept pace with the growth of population. Produc-
tion averaged 711 million pounds annually in 1910-1914 and 610 million
pounds in 1921-1928. Apparent yearly consumption per capita in the
country was 7.4 pounds for 1910-1914 and 5.4 pounds for 1921-1928.
The estimated number of sheep on farms on January 1 declined
from 47.1 million in 1910 to 36.3 million in 1915. This decrease in
numbers increased market receipts and partly explains the higher per
capita consumption during the 1910-1914 period. During the post-war
period the number increased; the estimates for January 1 were 36.2
million in 1922 and 48.9 million in 1930. The holding back of lambs
necessary to make such increases in numbers possible reduced market
'See footnote page 526.
JThe relatively low level of lamb prices since the early winter of 1929-30
does not prove this statement incorrect. An increase in market supplies has had
to be sold in a market which has been adversely influenced by the current busi-
ness depression with respect to both meat and wool.
558 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
receipts and in part explained the lowered per capita production and
higher price. For example, the average number of sheep increased by
about 3 million head during 1928. If the 3 million lambs which made
this increase possible had been marketed, the number slaughtered
would have been increased about one-sixth. Altho this is equivalent
to only about one pound of meat per capita, prices would have been
somewhat lower if this extra amount had been marketed.
EGGS AND CHICKENS
During the period under consideration the relative price of eggs,
among all the commodities considered, ranked next to sheep, while
chickens held a higher position. In fact, lambs were the only product
under consideration that were relatively higher in price than chickens.
For the 1921-1928 period the price of eggs averaged 143 percent of
the 1910-1914 price, and the price of chickens, 184 percent. Quotations
for chickens apparently refer to prices paid for young birds and not for
hens. Records of Illinois farm prices paid for hens are not available
for this period.
No marked trend in the price either of eggs or of chickens was
apparent during the period, altho both were slightly higher during the
second four years than during the first four. Farm prices of eggs, of
chickens, and of four grain crops for stated periods averaged as fol-
lows compared with 1910-1914 prices:
Illinois farm prices
Eggs. . .
1921-
1928
(Percen
143.4
1921- 1925-
1924 1928
tage of 1910-1914)
141.7 145.2
179.5 188.6
96.0 109.5
112.5 136.2
99.3 109.2
122.6 149.4
Percentage
increase from
1921-1924 to
1925-1928
2.5
5.1
14.1
21.1
10.0
21.9
- /-ML • 1
Chickens
184.1
Barley
102.8
Corn
124.4
Oats.
104.2
Wheat..
136.0
The prices both of eggs and of chickens averaged higher than prices
of the four grains during both four-year periods, but the difference was
smaller in the second period than in the first.
The fact that egg prices were not much higher during 1925-1928
than in 1921-1924 indicates that returns from the business were satis-
factory enough to maintain production at a level which kept prices
from rising. This was in spite of the fact that grain prices had in-
creased more between these two periods than either egg or chicken
prices.
It is probable that there has been considerable increase in efficiency
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
559
of egg production. The growth of commercial hatcheries and the gen-
eral increase in knowledge regarding methods of feeding and handling
poultry would tend to lower prices as rapidly as it led to increased pro-
duction or to the extent that it tended to maintain production which
would otherwise have been reduced. The price of eggs had been de-
clining in relation to the general price level for a number of years.
'MM JIN
ntt
FIG. 13.— EGGS 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
The regular seasonal variation in egg prices is clearly brought out in the
above chart. From 1925 to 1929 prices in the spring months were generally
higher than they had been in the earlier years, while winter prices tended to
decline. This has narrowed the margin between spring and winter prices.
Apparently egg production has increased faster than poultry produc-
tion, as the prices for eggs have been relatively lower than for poultry.
Improvements in poultry management have been such that they would
tend to increase production per bird.
The question may be raised: What kept the poultry and egg pro-
duction from expanding still further when both were relatively higher
in price than grain, one of the principal items in their cost of produc-
tion? A partial explanation is the time necessary to accomplish such
an expansion. Successful handling of poultry requires much labor. It
also involves considerable specialized skill, which requires time for
560
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
learning. Also, special buildings and equipment are needed to expand
poultry production and this reduces the incentive to expand.
In 1921-1924 spring prices of eggs were relatively much lower than
winter prices, but in 1925-1928 they were more nearly on the same
basis when compared with pre-war relationships. This change was
caused to a greater extent by an increase in the spring price than by a
decrease in the winter price, altho the winter price declined somewhat.
ot/fifO
MM MM MV. MM.
/9Z7 /926 /9f9
FIG. 14.— CHICKENS 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
The price of chickens declined during 1921 and 1922, but from then until
the middle of 1929 the general trend was upward. Peak prices came in 1926,
following a year of high corn prices, and again in 1929. The seasonal variation,
altho fairly regular, is less marked than that of eggs.
Illinois farm prices during designated months in 1921-1928 were as
follows compared with 1910-1914 prices for the same months:
Illinois farm prices for eggs
1921-1924.
1925-1928.
March to November to
June February
(Percentage of 1910-1914)
120 154
135 147
Foreign trade of the United States in poultry and eggs is small,
altho exports are something over twice as large as before the World
War. Exports go chiefly to Cuba and other countries in tropical
America. The United States imports a few fresh eggs, chiefly from
Canada and China, and considerable quantities of dried or otherwise
processed eggs from the Orient, and also imports a small amount of
poultry from Canada. Total imports are very small in relation to our
total production.
In the Tariff Act of 1922 the rate of duty on fresh eggs was fixed
at 8 cents a dozen, compared with 5 cents in the Act of 1909. Equiv-
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 561
alent rates were established in 1922 for other classes of eggs. The
rate on live chickens was 3 cents a pound both in the Acts of 1909 and
1922, while on dressed chickens it was 5 cents in the earlier act and
6 cents in the later.1
The relative stability of poultry and egg prices during the 1921-1929
period suggests that the levels which were established for these prod-
ucts during this period are likely to continue. Unless the specialized
production of poultry for meat develops on a larger scale than in recent
years, poultry prices should continue at a relatively higher level than
egg prices, altho the margin may be somewhat reduced. The relatively
better level of egg prices during the spring months as compared with
the prices in the winter months which prevailed from 1925 to 1928 is
also likely to be fairly permanent. The margin between spring and
winter prices may narrow still more, but a permanent spread between
the prices at these two seasons is likely because of the conditions under
which eggs are produced on many farms.
BUTTER AND OTHER DAIRY PRODUCTS
The only dairy product for which Illinois farm prices for the
State as a whole are available from 1910 to date is butter. Altho these
figures refer to farm butter, which is declining in importance, changes
in its price reflect changes in the prices of dairy products generally.
The average price of farm butter for 1921-1928 was 40 cents a pound,
or 160 percent of the pre-war average. Prices strengthened during this
period and averaged about 4 cents higher for 1925-1928 than for 1921-
1924.
The prices of butter and of milk cows present an interesting con-
trast. For the years 1921-1928 the Illinois farm price of milk cows
averaged 126 percent of the 1910-1914 price, while butter prices, as
stated above, averaged 160 percent. An important reason for the
difference between the two items is that butter requires a good deal
of labor in its production while cattle require comparatively little.
Hence, with labor a relatively expensive item butter production was
kept at a point which permitted a fairly high price level.
In view of the large amount of labor required in milk production,
it does not follow that the relatively high prices for butter and milk
necessarily reflected high profits. On the contrary, this high level of
prices indicates that the costs of milk and butter production increased
more than the costs of some of the other products because of the
'See footnote page 526.
562 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
relatively large amount of labor involved in their production. The
high prices for butter do indicate, however, that the gross income
of a farm was increased relatively more during the 1921-1928 period
by converting available feed crops into milk or butter fat than in
1910-1914.
Comparing relative prices one might conclude that milk produc-
tion was more profitable than hog production during the period under
consideration. The prices of hogs from 1921 to 1928 averaged only
124 percent of the 1910-1914 price, compared with an index of 160
for butter. This conclusion, however, does not necessarily follow. To
answer this point we need to know what changes had taken place in the
comparative production costs of these two products. Labor makes up a
larger part of the cost of producing butter than it does of the cost
of producing pork, and hence it may be assumed that during a period
when wages were relatively high the costs of producing butter were
relatively higher than the costs of producing pork. The persistence
of a difference between the comparative prices of the two products is
good evidence that this view is correct.
Changes in Consumption of Dairy Products. There are no ade-
quate statistics regarding output of dairy products, including milk for
fluid consumption, during this entire period 1921-1929, but all avail-
able figures indicate that production has increased more rapidly than
population. The per capita consumption of three products in particu-
lar, fluid milk, ice cream, and butter, has apparently increased. Com-
parisons which are sometimes made with the war-time years are mis-
leading because production of dairy products declined during this
period, the estimated production of butter based on Census figures
being 3 percent less in 1919 than in 1914. By 1926 estimated produc-
tion had increased to 27 percent above the average for the two years
1909 and 1914.
As pointed out in the discussion of milk cows, the average number
on farms January 1, 1910 to 1914, was 20.7 million head; the average
number in 1921-1928 was 22.0 million, an increase of only about 6
percent. There undoubtedly has been an increase in the production
of milk per animal.
Increased incomes of consumers have been a principal cause for
this increased consumption of dairy products. Some of the other fac-
tors which have contributed to the increase are publicity regarding
the value of milk as a food, a greater recognition of certain valuable
qualities of milk, and improvements in the quality of milk and dairy
products.
1930}
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
563
This increased demand of course tended to strengthen prices, but
high costs were also an important factor in the price level, as noted
above. Altho feed and cows were comparatively cheap, labor, a large
element in milk production, was relatively expensive. Also, the ex-
pansion of dairying into new regions involved additional capital out-
lays for animals and equipment. Farmers who had not handled cows
before had to acquire the necessary specialized skill in order to make
a success of the business. And finally a good deal of dislike for the
I9ZX 1913 1914 MS
JAM. JAM. JAM
I9Z6 /9Z7 /9t8 /ft*
FIG. 15.— BUTTERFAT 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
The general trend in the price of butterfat during this period was distinctly
upward. In 1921 and 1922 the average price was below 35 cents a pound ; in
1928 and 1929 it was nearly 45 cents. Since 1924 there has been less variation
between summer and winter prices than in the early years of this period.
business had to be overcome. Large-scale milk production interferes
more with crop work than do hogs, cattle, and sheep.
Exports and Imports. Exports of condensed and evaporated milk,
which make up a large part of our foreign trade in dairy products,
have averaged considerably larger in recent years than they did before
the war, as shown by the following figures:
Exports of dairy products
Butter
Cheese
Condensed and evaporated milk.
1910-1914 1921-1928
(Millions of pounds annually)
4.3 6.6
4.9 5.1
15.8 179.8
564 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
Altho exports of condensed and evaporated milk averaged about
twelve times larger in 1921-1928 than in 1910-1914, the trend was
downward during the post-war period. The average was 227.7
million pounds in 1921-1924 and 131.8 million pounds in 1925-1928.
Exports of condensed milk, which go chiefly to tropical countries and
to the Orient, have held up better than those of evaporated milk. Ex-
ports of evaporated milk to Europe have declined sharply, while ex-
ports to tropical countries, notably to the Philippine Islands, have
maintained their old level or increased. Exports of butter and cheese
during recent years have gone chiefly to Cuba and other Latin Ameri-
can countries with which the United States has close trade connections.
The average quantities of butter and cheese imported annually
during 1910-1914 and 1921-1928 were as follows:
Importations of butter and cheese 1910-1914 1921-1924 1925-1928
(Millions of pounds annually)
Butter 2.5 22.3 7.3
Cheese 49.2 43.0 72.3
Imports of butter have averaged above the pre-war level thruout
the entire period since 1921, but were only about one-third as large
in 1925-1928 as in 1921-1924. This decrease may be explained in
part by an increase in the import duty on butter from 8 to 12 cents
a pound which became effective March 6, 1926, and in part by the fact
that during a part of this period a rise in the foreign price of butter
narrowed the margin between the price in this country and in foreign
countries. On the other hand, imports of cheese averaged larger in
1925-1928 than in 1921-1924 for the reason that they consist chiefly
of certain varieties of foreign cheese which are specially demanded by
certain elements in our population. Among the imported dairy prod-
ucts cheese is the most important item.
Balancing imports against exports, the net imports have equalled
about 1 percent of our total consumption of milk and dairy products
in recent years. This does not mean that an increase of 1 percent in
the volume of our dairy production would cause our imports to cease
or our exports to increase. As noted above, the principal item in the
imports consists of certain types of foreign cheese which would con-
tinue to come in even tho prices were greatly altered. Furthermore,
consumption of butter and other dairy products would increase as
prices declined. An increase in production much larger than 1 percent
would be necessary to reduce prices to the point where the United
States could export butter to countries other than those to which it
has continued to export, because of established trade connection, dur-
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 565
ing recent years in spite of relatively high prices. Increased pro-
duction would lower prices but not necessarily to the foreign level. Of
course if production is expanded sufficiently, prices will go to an export
basis, but the necessary decline in price would likely be followed by a
decline in production.
Butter prices in this country have typically been above the prices
in foreign countries, partly as the result of the import duties levied
on butter. These duties during the period under consideration have
been as follows:
Duties on butter Per pound
August 6, 1909, to October 13, 1913 $ .06
October 13, 1913, to May 27, 1921 025
May 27, 1921, to September 21, 1922 06 >
September 21, 1922, to March 6, 1922 08
March 6, 1926, thru 1929 121
Average prices of butter per pound in a representative market in
this country and abroad have been as follows:
New York Copenhagen, Margin in
Butter prices (92 score, Denmark favor of
creamery) (export price) New York
1910-1914 average $ .30 $ .26 $ .04
1921 43 .38 .05
1922 41 .37 .04
1923 47 .37 .10
1924 43 .40 .03
1925 45 .42 .03
1926 44 .37 .07
1927.... .47 .37 .10
1928 47 .38 .09
1929 45 .37 .08
1921-1925 average 44 .39 .05
1926-1929 average 46 .37 .09
From 1921 to 1925 the New York prices exceeded the Danish
prices by only a little more than the pre-war margin; from 1926 to
1929 the margin was more than double the pre-war figure. After 1926
the import duty had much more influence on the price than previous
to that year. The duty, altho it increased the average price, tended
to make butter prices more unstable than they would otherwise have
been.
The principal causes for the relatively high prices for dairy prod-
ucts were first, the increased demand for them and second, the tend-
ency of heavy labor costs in milk production to hold production down.
Again it should be noted that it may have been more profitable for
a farmer to produce something which averaged relatively much lower in
'See footnote page 526.
566 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
price than dairy products than to expend the labor and make the capital
investment necessary to produce milk.
During 1929 there was considerable expansion in the number of
dairy cattle in this country. If this expansion continues, it will un-
doubtedly tend to reduce the prices of dairy products. The reaction
of production to these lower prices may be expected to be much more
rapid than it would be for many farm products because of the large
amount of labor involved in milk production. The reduced production
which is likely to follow lower prices will tend to hold up prices of
dairy products.
RED CLOVER SEED
Red clover seed has been one of the highest priced of the products
included in this discussion. The average Illinois farm prices were
$9.02 a bushel in 1910-1914, $14.75 in 1921-1928, and $15.90 in 1929.
The 1921-1928 average was 161 percent of the 1910-1914 average. This
relatively high price is in distinct contrast to timothy seed, which
has been very low when compared with pre-war averages.
Red clover seed was distinctly higher in 1925-1928 than in 1921-
1924. In the earlier period they were 130 percent of the 1910-1914
average, and in 1925-1928, 198 percent.
Because production figures for clover seed go back only to 1916,
comparisons with pre-war years are impossible. There were four
years of comparatively small crops from 1924 to 1928. Production
of red, alsike, and white clover averaged about 1.6 million bushels
annually in 1920-1923 and, partly because of weather conditions, only
1.1 million bushels in 1924-1927. This reduced output explains a large
part of the increase in prices for clover seed from 1925 to 1928.
Increased acreages of legume hay have probably increased the de-
mand for clover seed and helped to strengthen the price.
The price of native clover seeds has probably been strengthened by
the regulations that require the staining of seed of foreign origin.
But as these regulations did not go into effect until September, 1926,
they did not operate as a factor tending to increase prices thruout
all the period under consideration. Education of producers as to the
superior qualities of native seed has probably also tended to increase
the demand for the domestic crop. Clover seeds of all kinds were on
the free list in 1909, but duties of 4 cents a pound on both red and
alsike clover were imposed in the Tariff Act of 1922.1 These duties
have probably tended to raise the price. The full amount of the duty,
'See footnote page 526.
1930}
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
567
^^.
^o.
,8
M,
/€
ft,
M JOf J4# JM -/Mr
1021 1922
J4M J4H
FIG. 16.— RED CLOVER SEED 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
The price paid for red clover seed rose steadily from 1921 to 1925. From
1926 to the latter part of 1929 it maintained a fairly high level and for a brief
period in the early part of 1927 it went very high. In the latter part of 1929
the price declined sharply in response to a large crop.
however, is only about 25 percent of the pre-war price, while the
average price in 1925-1928 averaged about 100 percent higher.
It seems unlikely that these extremely high prices for red clover
seed will be permanent. It is reasonable to expect that production
will expand to a point that will make for a lower level of prices. A
large crop in 1929 brought the price for that crop down close to the
pre-war level.
APPLES
Average yearly prices of apples mean little because of differences
in varieties and because sales are generally made during a rather brief
season. The farm-price data indicate that for the period 1921-1928
the general level of apple prices ranked high among the commodities
under consideration. This average was materially influenced, however,
by the high prices during the first two years of the period. The aver-
age price in 1921-1928 averaged 164 percent of the 1910-1914 price,
but in 1923-1928 it was only 149 percent of 1910-1914. The six-year
period 1923-1928 will be used as the basis for this discussion.
568
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
No particular trend was evident during this period, the average
for the first three years, 1923 to 1925, being 147 percent of 1910-
1914 and the average for the next three, 1926 to 1928, being 150 per-
cent. Harvest-time averages did not differ greatly from these yearly
prices when reduced to a relative basis.
I92J /9£f M3 /924 /9tS f926 1927
FIG. 17.— APPLES 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
The seasonal variation in apple prices is very marked. The general trend
in the harvest-time prices, which are of most significance to growers, has been
upward since 1922, altho prices were very low in 1926 and 1928.
Because of the wide variations in the production of apples from
one year to the next it is difficult to compare the average production
during different periods. On the whole, however, production of apples
in the United States has been no larger during recent years than
it was in 1910-1914. Production for selected periods has averaged
as follows:
Apple production in the United States
1909-1913.
1910-1914.
1922-1928.
Millions of bushels
annually
176
198
186
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 569
While total production has tended to increase but slightly, commercial
production has been gradually increasing.
The number of trees, both of bearing and nonbearing age, in the
country as a whole has declined between each of the last three Census
dates, as shown by the following figures:
Apple trees in United States Bearing Nonbearing
(Millions)
1910 151.3 65.8
1920 115.3 36.2
1925 103.7 34.3
The decline in number of bearing trees took place chiefly in gen-
eral farming sections, where small farm orchards are being gradually
eliminated.
The large cash outlays and the heavy labor requirements needed
to produce and harvest a crop of apples have probably tended to hold
apple prices up. It is another case where relatively high prices have
been associated with relatively high costs.
The demand for apples has probably been reduced by increases
in the consumption of other fruits, notably oranges and bananas. Per
capita consumption of apples in 1923-1928 was obviously below the
pre-war level, for production then averaged no larger than for the
years just before the war, while our population averaged about 20 per-
cent larger in 1923-1928 than in 1910-1914.
Imports of apples are negligible but exports from 1923 to 1928
averaged about 14 million bushels, or about two and one-half times
the pre-war average. These exports, however, amount to only about
7 percent of the total crop. The import duty of 25 cents a bushel
imposed in the Act of 1922 had little or no influence on prices.1
POTATOES
Potatoes have been a very minor crop for the state of Illinois
as a whole. Their price has been very erratic during the period under
consideration, a situation which is typical of potato prices generally.
The average price, however, has been relatively high. In 1921-1928 it
was $1.35 a bushel, or 165 percent of the 1910-1914 price. The range
was from 98 cents in 1924 to $2.23 in 1926.
The acreage of potatoes in the United States in 1920-1927 aver-
aged about 2.5 percent less than in 1909-1913 while production was
about 10 percent larger. Increased production on a decreased acreage
indicates an increase in the acre yields caused by better methods of cul-
'See footnote page 526.
570
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
/Of/
FIG. 18.— POTATOES 1921 TO 1929, MONTHLY ILLINOIS FARM PRICE
Changes in potato prices have been very erratic during this period. The
trend was downward from 1921 to 1924, but a short crop in 1925 resulted in a
very high level during 1926. From 1926 to 1929 the trend was downward as
crops increased from year to year. A smaller crop in 1929 resulted in higher
prices.
ture and concentration of the acreage in sections better adapted to
potato production.
Considering the comparatively large amount of labor required to
raise potatoes, it would be expected that production would be restricted
unless the price was fairly high. The sharp decline in acreage which
occurred between 1922 and 1925 reflected an adjustment to this situa-
tion. But the small total acreage involved in potato production per-
mits production to be expanded rapidly. Under stimulus of the high
prices received for the 1925 and 1926 crops, acreage was increased
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 571
sharply and prices declined in consequence of the increased produc-
tion; but acreage of potatoes is not likely to be maintained at a point
which will keep prices low because of the high costs involved in their
production.
It is obvious from the above figures that production has not kept
pace with population and that consumption per capita has declined.
The increased incomes enjoyed by large groups of our population
have apparently led to the substitution of other foods for potatoes.
From 1921-1922 to 1927-1928 this country exported an average
of about 3 million bushels of potatoes annually. These exports, which
went chiefly to Cuba, Canada, and Mexico, did not vary much from
year to year. During the same period the United States imported
annually about the same quantity, on the average, principally from
Canada, altho the imports were chiefly confined to the high-price years
1925 and 1926. This import duty of 30 cents a bushel1 and the restric-
tions on imports of potatoes from certain foreign countries because
of diseases probably tended to increase prices during years of small
crops, but had little or no influence on prices during other years.
High costs, which have tended to restrict production, were the
cause of the relatively high average price for potatoes during the 1921-
1929 period. As in the case of several other products previously men-
tioned, a relatively high price does not necessarily mean a particularly
profitable price. High costs of production may absorb the larger re-
turns.
PRICES OF FARM PRODUCTS COMPARED WITH
PRICES OF THINGS BOUGHT BY FARMERS
The relative positions of the prices of various farm products in
Illinois from 1921 to 1928 have been discussed and some reasons for
their position have been pointed out. It is generally recognized that
the majority of these commodities have been cheaper than the prices of
the items which enter into farm costs. The U. S. Department of
Agriculture has constructed a series of index numbers which measures
changes in the prices of things commonly purchased by farmers. These
indexes refer to the prices actually paid by farmers and not to whole-
sale prices in central markets. They measure the average change in
the cost of stated quantities of a selected list of different kinds of ma-
terials typical of the commodities which farmers have bought in re-
cent years and do not allow for any changes in the quantities of goods
'See footnote page 526.
572
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
purchased. Averages for different groups of items for different series
of years are shown in Table 4.
For the eight years 1921-1928 the prices of the commodities used in
farm production averaged 144 percent of 1910-1914 prices; the prices
of commodities bought for family use averaged 162 percent; combined,
the two were 155 percent of 1910-1914. There was but little differ-
ence in the averages for the first and second halves of this period,
indicating a rather stable situation for the prices of these cost items.
There were, however, some changes in the prices of the different
groups into which these commodities are divided. The items of agri-
cultural origin, feed and seed, were relatively higher during the second
half of the period than during the first.
TABLE 4. — INDEX NUMBERS OF PRICES OF ITEMS PURCHASED
BY FARMERS, 1921-1929
(1910-1914 = 100)1
Class or group of commodities purchased
Two four-year periods
1929
1921-1924
1925-1928
Feed
124
158
132
161
138
160
144
162
155
118
159
135
159
140
137
142
162
154
130
157
129
163
136
183
146
163
156
131
162
132
162
128
188
146
160
155
Machinery
Fertilizer
Building materials
Equipment and supplies
Seed
All commodities used in production. . . .
Commodities bought for family use ....
Average of commodities used for produc-
tion and family use
>Average of indexes computed by Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of
Agriculture.
Wage payments are important items in farm costs. Wages have
also been relatively higher than the prices of the majority of farm
products. From 1921 to 1924 farm wages in the United States aver-
aged 157 percent of 1910-1914; from 1925 to 1928 they averaged 170
percent. Farm wages have been low in comparison with wages in most
other lines of employment but relatively higher than the prices of the
more important farm products.
Taxes have been much higher than farm products; from 1921 to
1924 taxes on farm property in the United States averaged 236 per-
cent of 1910-1914; during 1925-1928, 256 percent.
In Table 5 the Illinois farm prices of representative farm products
are compared with the indexes of the commodities bought for farm
and family use for the 1921-1928, 1921-1924, and 1925-1928 periods.
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
573
The prices of such important items as oats, corn, hogs, cattle, wheat,
and eggs all averaged lower than 155, the index of the average of the
expense items during both four-year periods, altho in the second period
the margin was somewhat less than in the first. During at least one
year of the eight-year period the index number of the price of all six
of these products, except oats, was higher than 155. The index of
the price of butter, which is typical of the dairy products, was the only
one of these six items which averaged higher than 155 for the eight-
year period and it failed to do so during only two of the eight years.
TABLE 5. — RELATIVE PRICES OF SELECTED ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS COMPARED
WITH INDEX NUMBERS OF PRICES OF GOODS BOUGHT BY FARMERS, 1921-1928
Commodity
Index numbers
(1910-1914 = 100)
Number of years price of designated
commodity was relatively higher than
prices of commodities used for pro-
duction and family use
Commodities bought
for farm and fam-
ily uses
1921-1928
Two four-year periods
Two four-year periods
1921-1924
1925-1928
1921-1924
1925-1928
155
57
99
104
124
124
126
136
143
160
163
164
165
184
186
154
58
102
99
113
106
108
123
142
152
144
177
142
180
162
156
56
95
109
136
143
145
149
145
169
182
151
189
189
209
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
3
4
8
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
1
4
3
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
4
4
1
3
4
4
Illinois farm prices
Horses
Hay. .
Oats
Corn
Hogs
Beef cattle
Wheat
Eggs
Butter. . . .
Wool
Apples
Potatoes
Chickens
Lambs
Other commodities, the farm price of which averaged higher than 155
for the eight-year period were as follows: wool, higher in six years;
apples, higher in only three years ; potatoes, higher in only four years ;
chickens, higher in all eight years ; and lambs, higher in seven years.
These figures have the following significance: if the price of any
product averaged lower than the prices of items which were bought
for farm and family use, it required more of the product to buy a
given quantity of supplies than in the earlier period, 1910-1914, which
is taken as a standard. At Illinois farm prices the following quantities
of corn were required to buy the same quantities of material, hire the
same amount of labor, or pay the taxes which 100 bushels of corn
would have paid for with prices as they were from 1910-1914:
574 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
Commodities for farm use
1921-1928
bushels
115
1921-1924
bushels
126
1925-1928
bushels
107
Commodities for family use
131
143
120
Wages of hired man
131
139
125
Taxes on farm orooertv. .
198
209
188
Unless the quantity of corn produced per farm family has been in-
creased in the proportions indicated in the above table, the amount
of goods bought or labor hired has had to be reduced or income di-
verted from other uses. The simple fact that it has taken larger quan-
tities of corn and of most of the other important farm products to buy
the necessary materials and pay the wages of the hired man and the
taxes than it formerly did, is responsible for much of the difficulty
which Illinois farmers and landowners have experienced from 1921
to 1928. Ratios similar to those worked out for corn may be worked
out for other products if one cares to do so.
GENERAL CAUSES FOR LOW PURCHASING POWER
OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
Some of the reasons for the differences between the prices of in-
dividual farm products during the period 1921-1929 have been dis-
cussed, and it has been pointed out that in general the more important
of these have been relatively lower in price than the cost of items
used by farmers either for farm or family use. Some of the reasons
that have been assigned for the position of individual products are of
rather general application. The substitution of mechanical for horse
power, for example, has not only directly influenced the demand for
a variety of products but has also increased the supply of feed to be
disposed of thru various meat- and milk-producing animals and hence
influenced the prices of such products.
Various people have advanced some particular explanation for the
relatively low prices of agricultural products in comparison with the
prices of things which farmers buy. Some of these general reasons
why prices of farm products have been relatively cheap will be dis-
cussed at this point. Because of the wide variations which have
developed between the prices of the different farm products, it is
obvious that the particular circumstances relating to each individual
commodity must never be lost sight of.
During the period 1921-1929 the general level of prices was com-
paratively stable in this country. The revised index number for whole-
sale prices calculated by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics rose from
141 as a yearly average in 1922 to 151 in 1925 and declined to 139
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 575
in 1927, the average for the period 1910-1914 being taken as 100. The
period as a whole lay between the very severe decline in prices that
began in 1920 and the severe decline which began late in 1929.1
During this period the following general factors operated to cause
prices of farm products to be relatively low in comparison with the
prices of the items entering into farm costs. The order in which they
are put does not indicate their relative importance.
1. Slow adjustment of farm output to unfavorable conditions.
2. Increased demands for nonagricultural products.
3. Reduced foreign demand for our farm products.
4. Ability of other economic groups to establish and maintain
higher scales of remuneration.
5. Increased expense for marketing, including transportation and
conversion.
•This list does not include the influence of various governmental
policies that have been much discussed in this connection. The actual
significance of such factors cannot be measured with any degree of ac-
curacy. Neither does it include changes in production, either domestic
or foreign, or in demand in this country as these factors have been
dealt with in the discussion under individual products.
1. Slow Adjustment of Farm Output to Unfavorable Conditions.
The output of the typical manufactured product reacts more quickly
to unfavorable conditions than farm output. There are a number of
reasons for this, but the three most basic are (1) the comparative
length and nature of the processes involved; (2) the proportion of
the costs which must be paid in cash; and (3) the number of enter-
prises involved.
The first difference is so obvious that discussion is unnecessary.
With regard to the second, if a factory cannot pay its expenses out
of its income, it is compelled to cease operations because the larger
part of its expenses must be paid in cash. It therefore closes rather
quickly whenever prices fall to the point where they do not cover costs.
In the case of a farm a smaller part of production costs is in cash, and
hence production continues even when returns are unfavorable.
With regard to the third point — the number of enterprises involved
— a comparatively small number of concerns make a large proportion
of most industrial products. Keeping the output at a level which per-
mits it to be sold at a given price is easier under such circumstances
'This index number is published on the 1926 base. The figures quoted are
those published monthly in Farm Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, N. Y.
576 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
than where there are many producers, as is the case with most farm
products.
Wage levels in many lines have been maintained only by those
engaged in them refraining from work unless certain wage rates were
paid. The technic for successfully doing this has been developed to
only a limited degree in the case of farm products. Generally speak-
ing, farmers attempt to operate as close to capacity all the time as
their financial resources permit. Such a policy of course means that
during periods of heavy production and weak demand, sharp reduc-
tions in prices are inevitable.
2. Increased Demands for Nonagricultural Products. An increase
in the demands for nonagricultural products tends to hold up the
prices of goods which farmers buy because it increases the demands
for labor and industrial materials. The demand for a number of non-
agricultural products has increased during the last few years. Some
entirely new industries have developed, the automobile and radio in-
dustries being examples. There has been a great deal of building of
various kinds; houses, factories, and roads are examples. The de-
velopment of these industries has of course helped the prices of farm
products by providing employment for many workers and by pro-
viding an outlet for surplus farm labor, but this factor has also tended
to keep high the prices of nonagricultural goods which farmers have
had to buy.
3. Reduced Foreign Demand for Our Farm Products. The World
War reduced the ability of European nations to buy our farm products.
Their productive capacity was reduced and large investments of vari-
ous kinds that their citizens held in this country were greatly dimin-
ished. Before the war this country paid the interest or the returns
on the investments which foreigners held, largely in goods. This situ-
ation facilitated the export of farm products. Another factor tending
to reduce Europe's ability to buy our farm products is the circum-
stance that a number of foreign governments contracted debts in this
country to pay for war supplies. The payments which they have made
on these have tended to restrict their ability to buy.
During the 1921-1929 period the adverse effect on our markets
for farm products of this change in the economic status of Europe
was offset in part by large loans made by various interests of this
country to various interests abroad. This policy can only maintain
demands for a brief period, and in the future the interest as well as
the principal payments which must be made on these debts will reduce
the ability of the foreign nations to buy.
1930] PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 577
Wheat and hogs are the Illinois products that have been most di-
rectly influenced by these developments, altho all products have been
influenced indirectly.
4. Ability of Other Economic Groups to Establish and Maintain
Higher Scales of Remuneration. Two reasons why a higher scale
of remuneration could, at least temporarily, have been established
among nonagricultural groups rather than among farmers have pre-
viously been noted: the slowness with which farm output adjusts to
low levels of return, and the increase in demand for certain nonagri-
cultural products. It is much easier to limit production of an industrial
product to a point where a given price can be obtained than to similarly
limit an agricultural product. It is also reasonably easy to limit the
time which a given body of wage earners work. The strong markets
for certain nonagricultural products and services that prevailed during
much of the 1921-1929 period made it easy to pursue such a policy.
One of the most striking changes, from an economic point of view,
between pre-war and post-war conditions is the higher level of wages
which has prevailed in the latter period. A number of causes have con-
tributed to this rise. Space permits that only a few of these be listed
and briefly discussed. Among them are the rise of a number of new
industries and adoption of new methods which have increased the
effectiveness of labor in certain lines and drawn it out of lines where
it could not be used effectively. Restriction of immigration has re-
duced the supply of labor and this has tended to raise its value. Wages
were adjusted to a rather high level during the war-time period and
normally changes in wages lag. The ability and willingness of in-
dustry and labor to limit their output so as to be able to dispose of
it at certain comparatively fixed prices also helped to hold wages up.
The effect of this higher wage-level has been to increase produc-
tion costs in all lines except those in which improved methods have
reduced the amount of labor needed per unit of product. Wages make
up a considerable part of the direct or indirect costs of producing most
industrial goods and this higher wage level has been a factor in cre-
ating higher prices for industrial products.
The increased remuneration to the labor factor is more obvious
than is the increased return to certain other factors of production. It
should be recognized, however, that profits have been rather high in
many important lines of production. The strong demands and the
existence of a degree of production control that permitted regulation of
output to a point where prices could be maintained at profitable levels
were important causes for these higher profits.
578 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
5. Increased Expense for Marketing, Including Transportation
and Conversion. Generally speaking, costs of marketing have been
relatively higher during the period under consideration than the prices
of the more important Illinois farm products. One of the principal
reasons is the higher wage level noted above. This has widened the
spread between the farm and consumers' prices. Whether the higher
level of cost has reduced the prices paid farmers is a much discussed
question.
The price that is received by a producer for an item of a given stock
of any product is the price at which the stock will be used up by con-
sumers less the costs of marketing, assuming that the entire stock is
to be sold. To use a wheat crop of 700 million bushels it may be nec-
essary to export a part of it to some foreign country. The price to the
producer tends to be the price which this foreign buyer will pay less
the cost of getting it to him. The price which any other consumer pays
will be this farm price plus the cost of getting the goods from the farm
to this particular consumer.
If the cost of reaching the marginal consumer is increased, the farm
price will be reduced unless there is some change in the supply. If
farmers reduce their output because of this lower price, then the con-
sumer's price will rise and a part of the increased cost will be shifted
to consumers generally.
It seems likely that the supplies of many of our farm products
were sufficiently large during the 1921-1929 period so that the in-
creased marketing costs operated to reduce prices received by pro-
ducers. The situation may change from one year to the next or from
one season to the next as a result of variations in production in the
amounts offered for sale.
VARIATIONS IN PRICES WITHIN THE PERIOD
The discussion so far has dealt with differences between the aver-
age prices of the different commodities over periods of several years.
Within these periods there have been of course wide fluctuations in
the prices of each commodity. The nature of these variations is shown
by the charts scattered thruout the bulletin which graphically show the
changes from January, 1921 to January, 1930, in the prices of each
commodity that has been discussed. No attempt has been made to
analyze or explain these short-time fluctuations as the purpose of the
bulletin has been to point out differences between the general positions
of the different commodities.
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
579
The average variations in the index numbers for individual years
from their respective averages for the entire period are shown for the
twenty commodities included in this study in Table 6. This is of
course a crude measure of variability but it does suggest differences
between the different commodities in respect to variations in their aver-
age yearly prices.
TABLE 6. — VARIABILITY IN YEARLY INDEX NUMBERS OF ILLINOIS FARM PRICES OF
DESIGNATED COMMODITIES, 1921-1928
Commodity
Average index number
1921-1928
(1910-1914 = 100)
Average variation of
yearly index numbers
from average for
period
Percentage which
average variation
was of index number
for period
Horses
56 8
1 8
3 2
Hay
98 6
8 9
9 0
Barley
102 8
.10 7
10 4
Oats
104 2
11 1
10 6
Rye
121 8
13 2
10 8
Hogs
124 1
19 2
15 5
Corn
124.4
22 1
17 8
Milk cows
126 4
17 7
14 0
Cattle
126 4
18 5
14 6
Wheat
136 0
14 7
10 8
Veal calves
138 4
19 0
13 7
Sheep
138.6
17 6
12 7
Eggs
143 4
6 6
4 6
Butter
160 5
8 6
5 4
Clover seed
161 0
34 0
21 1
Wool
163 1
27 8
17 0
Apples
164 0
23 2
14 1
Potatoes
165 2
37 0
22 4
Chickens
184 1
7 7
4 2
Lambs
185.7
25.0
13.5
The average farm prices of horses, chickens, eggs, and butter were
less variable than those of any of the other twenty commodities, the
average variations in their yearly index numbers being 3.2, 4.2, 4.6, and
5.4 percent, respectively, of the index numbers for the entire period.
At the other extreme were potatoes, with an average variation of 22.4
percent from the average index number for the period.
Meat animals were in an intermediate position, with average varia-
tions as follows: sheep, 12.7 percent; lambs, 13.5 percent; veal calves,
13.7 percent; cattle, 14.6 percent; hogs, 15.5 percent. Wool was
rather variable, the average variation being 17.0 percent.
Corn was slightly more variable than hogs, comparable figures being
17.8 percent and 15.5 percent. Milk cows and butter present an in-
teresting contrast, comparable figures being 14.0 and 5.4 percent.
The use of the calendar-year figures reduces the apparent varia-
bility of the crops harvested in midsummer; the averages for such
580
BULLETIN No. 363
crops were rye, 10.8 percent; hay, 9.0 percent; oats, 10.6 percent;
barley, 10.4 percent ; and wheat, 10.8 percent.
PRICE VARIATIONS AMONG DISTRICTS WITHIN THE STATE
The prices analyzed in this bulletin refer to averages for the state
as a whole and not to any particular locality. It would be expected
that there would be consider-
able variation among the
prices prevailing in different
parts of the state because of
differences in costs of trans-
portation to central markets,
differences in local demand,
and differences in local com-
petition. Figures are not
available to show all these
variations. The farm prices
with which this publication
deals were compiled by crop-
reporting districts, however,
and averages have been
worked out for these different
districts for a variety of prod-
ucts for the five-year period
1925-1929.1 The counties in-
cluded in the different dis-
tricts are shown in Fig. 19.
Averaging prices for a
period of five years eliminates
a part of the actual variations
that occurred in prices among
these districts, since a rela-
tively high price in a given
district at one time may be
offset by relatively low prices
in the same district at a later
time. As a matter of fact,
rather wide differences developed during particular months, as shown
by Figs. 28 to 33. The average differences are shown in Figs. 20 to 27.
FIG. 19. — LOCATION OF ILLINOIS CROP-
REPORTING DISTRICTS
These are the districts for which price
averages are given in the following graphs.
'These were computed by the Agricultural Experiment Station from data
collected and made available by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S.
Department of Agriculture.
1930} PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 581
Grains. Prices of grains were generally lowest in the central and
eastern parts of the state, which ship out large quantities of grain
(Fig. 20).
Barley was indicated to be slightly cheaper in the western part of
the state than in the eastern.
Corn. Variations of corn prices in different parts of the state were
less than one would expect. In central and eastern Illinois, where
large quantities of corn are shipped out, the price averaged from 2 to
6 cents less than in the other districts. The prices were highest in the
southern part of the state and intermediate in the northern and west-
ern. In these areas of higher price there is more livestock produced
in proportion to corn than in the eastern and central parts of the state.
During individual months, however, wide differences develop; during
1925-1929 the price in the southeastern district fluctuated from 9 cents
below to 26 cents above the price in the eastern district (see Fig. 28).
Oats also were cheapest in the central and eastern districts, the
average for these two districts being 4.5 cents less than in the north-
eastern district, from which large quantities of oats are also shipped.
Lower transportation costs to Chicago from the latter district partly
explain this situation. The price in the two southern districts, which
ship oats in, averaged 10 cents higher than in the eastern district, from
which oats are marketed in quantity.
Wheat was cheapest in the northern, central, and eastern districts.
In the two latter the price averaged 7 cents less than in the western
and west-southwestern districts and 13 cents less than in the two
southern districts. These differences reflect differences in the classes
of wheat produced ; the soft wheat grown in parts of the western dis-
trict and exclusively in southern Illinois has averaged higher in price
during this period than the hard wheats grown in central and eastern
Illinois.
Soybean prices were lowest in the eastern district and highest in
the two southern districts. These quotations apparently refer to prices
of beans for seed rather than for shipment to mills.
Hay. Hay is a very bulky product and costs of transportation and
marketing are high in proportion to its value. Hence there were wide
variations in the prices among the different districts (Fig. 21).
All Hay. The exact type of hay referred to by this designation
probably varies in different parts of the state because of variations
in the kinds of hay grown. The price was highest in the central and
eastern districts, where corn and the other grains were cheapest, and
582
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
lowest in the western, east-southeastern, and southeastern districts.
The price averaged a little over $5 a ton, or nearly 50 percent, higher
SO .60 .OO /.OO /JO
P&ce pee ousHet.
FIG. 20.— CORN, OATS, AND WHEAT 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE FARM PRICES BY
CROP-REPORTING DISTRICTS
Prices of all three grains were cheapest in Districts 5 and 6, the heavy
grain-producing districts of central and eastern Illinois. On the average, there
were surprisingly small differences between districts in the price of corn, altho
there were large differences during particular months.
in the eastern district than in the adjoining east-southeastern district.
Alfalfa hay was rather uniform in price in the different districts,
tho it was highest in the northeastern, central, and eastern districts
and lowest in the western and east-southeastern districts.
Clover hay was cheapest in the northwestern and western districts
and highest in the northeastern, central, and southwestern districts.
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
583
Timothy hay was cheapest in the east-southeastern district and
highest in the northeastern, central, eastern, and the two southern dis-
0/sra/cr
/ A/oerrtwesr
3. NoeTM£A3T
4 Wear
4i.hlfjr-Jot/mnsr
5. CfNreAL
A fAJr
6i. LA3r-SOV7*fASr
D/araicr
1. NoeTttwesr
3 NoerttcAsr
4 Wrsr
5. CeNTOAL
ff Essr
7 SOUTH iv fsr
9 SOUTH f AST
Dtsrgicr
/ A/oertfwesr
J A/otrttf/tsr
4 ftfejr
4t.M?sr-wn»*R»
3. CfNreAL
6 CAST
6« CuST-SOtfffttAST
7 SovTHlVfST
9. SouTtffAJr
face
tlt.99
I4M
NAY, AIL X/VDJ
/J.S3
//.J3?
'3.S/
'J64
f7AY,UOVff
J6Z
S433
HAY. ALFALFA
/0./9
/S.90
9i
> 2 -4 6 a /O /£ /* * /9 tO
•Pe/cf pee rov
FIG. 21— HAY 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE FARM PRICE BY
CROP-REPORTING DISTRICTS
Because of the bulky nature of the product, high transportation costs, and
local variations in production and demand, the prices of hay were extremely
variable between districts. Prices were lowest in the western and southeastern
parts of the state.
tricts. The price averaged about $5 a ton higher in the eastern dis-
trict than in the district to the south of it, the east-southeastern.
Livestock. More definite differences are to be noted between the
prices of livestock in different parts of the state (Figs. 22 to 25) than
in the prices of crops.
Beef cattle were higher in price in the northern and western dis-
tricts than in the eastern and southern. The averages for the two
584
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
northern districts was $9.80; for the central and eastern, $9.10; and
for the two southern districts, $7.60. Difference in quality probably
accounts for a considerable part of these price differences.
Qumcr
1 n/offrtiwesr
J A/oer*£Asr
4 Wesr
6 £437
7 <Jo</rffwfsT
9. SovrnfAsr
D/sm/cr
1. Nosmrfesr
3. /Voeritcjsr
4 (Vfjr
•4* f&ST-SOffTMWJT
5 CEMTBAL
6 EAST
DUTG/CT
/ NoeTHivesr
3 NoernfAsr
4. Wear
6. CMT
6t£ur-Jovrfr&U7
7 Sovrfitvfar
9 So(/TfteA3T
facr
t9M
9.69
9.88
0!4
9.3S
881
tJ<
7.X
//•.CO
/Z.OI
It.TS
IZ.OS
Deer C*rn.e
VEAL CALM 3
'0.79
hogs
/O.SI
/O.4O
/OM
3 4 3 f
Pt/Cf Pfff JOO POMOS
FIG. 22.— BEEF CATTLE, VEAL CALVES, AND HOGS 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE
FARM PRICES BY CROP-REPORTING DISTRICTS
Beef cattle were lower in price in central Illinois than in the northern or
western counties, and lower in the southern than in the central counties. The
differences were not large for veal calves, which were cheapest in the western
and southeastern districts. Hog prices averaged practically the same in all
districts.
Veal calves varied less in price between districts than beef cattle
and there was less tendency for the price to decline from north to
south.
Hogs averaged practically the same in price in all districts during
this period; the largest difference between districts was between the
western and eastern and amounted to only about 40 cents, or less than
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
585
4 percent of the average price in either of these districts. Prices were
slightly higher in the western, west-southwestern, and central districts
than in the other parts of the state.
Lamb prices, like prices of beef cattle, were progressively lower
from north to south, altho differences between districts were not so
large with lambs as with beef cattle. The average price of lambs for
the two northern districts was $13.00; for the central and eastern,
$12.50; and for the two southern districts, $1170.
bee
tr/a
70S
7.00
/ A/oer/rtvfjr
3 Noer
4. WfJT
Disr&cr
i Noerttwcsr
y. NoertffAsr
5
6 EAST
Sourncjsr
€.40
•97
tr./ff
ir.7f
1233
IZ.40
1207
II.9O
i/se
LAMOS
to
2 3 4 3 *
Pff/Cf *>££ tOOPOUA/OS
FIG. 23.— SHEEP AND LAMBS 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE FARM PRICES BY
CROP- REPORTING DISTRICTS
Both sheep and lambs were lower in the southern than in the northern
districts, tho the differences were not so great as for cattle.
Sheep were a little lower in price in the southern part of the state
than in the northern, altho the differences were not large.
Milk cows were much cheaper in western and southern Illinois than
in northern. The highest averages were in the northeastern district,
which includes the Chicago dairy district. From north to south on the
eastern side of the state the averages by districts were $107, $81, $72,
and $64. These differences probably reflect in part variations in the
quality of the cattle in the various districts.
Horse prices were highest in the two northern, the central, and the
eastern districts and lowest in the two southern districts, the other
districts being intermediate.
586
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
Butterfat, Eggs, and Chickens. Average prices for 1925-1929 by
districts for butterfat are shown in Fig. 24 and for chickens and eggs
in Fig. 26.
Butterfat prices averaged lower from north to south. The average
for the two northern districts was 44 cents a pound; for the eastern
and central districts, 43 cents; and for the two southern, 40. The
average was also quite low in the western and west-southwestern areas,
D/are/cr
/ A/oer#*fsr
5. A/otr#fAjT
4. War
4t. kkfr-four*#a
S. COVTBAL
6. £*fr
6a.£*sr-Jov7X£4sr
7. Sot/rtfwjr
9. OOUTHCAJT
D/sreicr
1. A/oerfttvrsr
3. /Voer/rejjr
4 tVfsr
•fa. ^hr-jex/Trmrjr
y. CeA/reAt
6. £AJT
6ȣur-swme4jr
7. SourrtHffJT
9. &OIS7HfMT
Quce
too
/or
X
O3
K
M/J.K COM
«/
71.
ft
/o to so 40 so to TO eo oc /oo i/o
Para n*Mt*f
QurreerAT
M
.-42
45
fi
» Of ./O sr £0 ±3 .30 JS SO *S
Pncf mvovta
pIG. 24.— MILK COWS AND BUTTERFAT 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE FARM
PRICES BY CROP-REPORTING DISTRICTS
Milk cows were lower in southern Illinois than in northern ; the average
for the southeastern district was only 60 percent of that in the northeastern.
Butterfat was cheaper in the western part of the state than in the eastern and
cheaper in the southern and northern. There was a difference of 4 cents a
pound between the two northern districts and the two southern.
being .42 cents in each. The difference of 4 cents a pound between
the price in the northern and southern parts of the state, amounting
to 10 percent of the price in southern Illinois, may be due in part at
least to differences in quality.
Chickens were highest in the northeastern district, which lies ad-
jacent to Chicago. Averages for some of the other districts fell below
the average for this northeastern district by the following amounts:
western, 3 cents ; eastern and central, 1 cent ; and the two southern, 2
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
587
fi/srxicr
I. Nogrrtirtsr
3. NMTHCAST
4. hksr
4» tiesT-joumrtetT
5. CtttreAL
6 EAST
6f£cr^toi/rfffAJT
7 Jovr#nvjr
8 Source AST
face
t M
fToffjga
ft.
ae
7S.
9S>.
Mt
n.
T*.
TO.
t*
•> /O fO 3O 4O SO ffO 7O »O 00 /OO
Paice pee HCAD
FIG. 25.— HORSES 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE FARM PRICE BY
CROP- REPORTING DISTRICTS
Horses were highest in price in the two northern districts and in the
central and eastern districts.
cents. The price advantages which result from being close to a large
consuming center are noticeable.
Eggs were also highest in price in the northeastern district, adjacent
to Chicago. Other districts fell below this district by the following
amounts: the northwestern, 4 cents; the western, 5 cents; the eastern,
DISTRICT
I
3.
4
4* If&iT-sourrmtsr
5. CcNTBAL
0.
to
.Of JO
Purer fix
JS .20 JS
Oareicr
1 Noermvrjr
4. Mwr '
4i. Har-sovrHweiT
5. CfA/rffAL
6. CAST
6 a Las T-3ovrncA3i
7. SouTHtvfsr
9. SOVTHCAST
$0.31
JJ
30
EGGS
.X
.«
.32
.30
JO
tc
.OS JO JS .10 .IS .30 Jf
flttice fH. IKUIH
FIG. 26.— CHICKENS AND EGGS 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE FARM PRICES BY
CROP-REPORTING DISTRICTS .,,
Both chickens and eggs were highest in price in the northeastern district,
in which Chicago is located. They were lowest in the western and southern
parts of the state.
588 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
3 cents ; and the two southern, 5 cents. Differences in quality may ex-
plain a portion of these variations but the influence of location is
clearly marked.
Apples. Apple prices were lowest in the four southern districts,
which include the chief centers of production in the state (Fig. 27).
Disre/CT
1. NoarHtvesT
3 NoOTftCAST
4-Wesr
4a. Wur-sovrrtwerr
5. CcNTBAi.
0. EAST
Qa.G*sr-sovrircMi
7 SourftwesT
9 SOUTHEAST
Atxx
Afff-f3
1.49
/JS
/.ft
S.X
fJ4
1.40
/.JO
ft
' 2O <4O J&O 4O /.OO /.20 /.-to /.t
FIG. 27.— APPLES 1925 TO 1929, AVERAGE FARM PRICE BY CROP-
REPORTING DISTRICTS
Apple prices varied greatly between districts. They were lowest in the
centers of production in western and southern Illinois.
MONTH-TO-MONTH VARIATIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT
PARTS OF THE STATE
The discussion of local price differences among Illinois farm prod-
ucts has thus far been based on averages extending over a period of
years. Month-to-month variations are shown by Figs. 28 to 33.
Corn. The average price of corn over the period 1925-1929, it was
pointed out above, was not very different in the different parts of the
state. During short periods, however, rather wide differences between
districts developed, as is shown by an analysis of average monthly
prices (Fig. 28). The price in eastern Illinois (District 6) is taken
as a standard because it is an area from which large quantities of corn
are constantly being shipped and in which prices are closely adjusted
to prices in the terminal market.
There was a tendency for prices in all the other districts to sink
at times to the level of District 6 but rarely to fall below it. During
a year of short crops in a section, prices typically rose above prices
in eastern Illinois. In central Illinois (District 5) the monthly price
did not differ significantly from the price in District 6.1 This is to be
expected since both districts ship out corn to the same markets.
JA portion of the differences between the prices in different districts is
due to the fluctuations in the prices making up the samples. A statistical analysis
1930}
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
589
+10
o
-so
•HO
O
-fO
•MO
0
-/O
O
-to
/Vo.S
No.es
FIG. 28. — CORN: AMOUNTS BY WHICH MONTHLY FARM PRICE IN VARIOUS
DISTRICTS VARIED FROM PRICE IN EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
(DISTRICT 6), 1925 TO 1929
The variation between prices in the southern, western, and northern parts of
the state and the price in east-central Illinois was considerable. During years
of large local crops prices in these parts of the state fall to the level of or
slightly below the price in the east-central part. During years of small local
crops, however, the prices go to a considerable margin above those in the central
and eastern counties.
The balance of the state may be divided into two parts : northern
and western, embracing- Districts 1, 3, 4, and 4a; and southern and
eastern, embracing Districts 6a, 7, and 9.
was made of these data for two months — December, 1928, and April, 1929 —
and it was found that differences of less than 2 to 3 cents a bushel between
the price in a given district and the price in District 6 were not significant.
When the differences were over 2 to 3 cents, their standard deviations were
in all cases at least twice the differences.
590 BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
In the northern-and-western area the price was higher than in
No. 6 during the early part of 1925. It was at about the same level
from the late summer of 1925 until the spring of 1927; then it was
irregularly higher (than in District 6) until the fall of 1928. It was
about the same level or slightly lower than in No. 6 during the winter
of 1928-1929. It was about the same level as in No. 6 during the
summer of 1929, and widened again, except in District 4a, in the fall
of 1929. These differences were caused by short crops of corn in
these sections in 1924 and 1927, fairly good crops in 1926 and 1928,
and by a short crop in 1929. The price in District 4a fell below the
price in No. 6 in December, 1929, because of the low quality of the
corn in that area. The margin was most variable in the case of Dis-
trict 4, the heavy livestock-producing district of western Illinois, and
least in the case of District 3 (northeastern Illinois).
In the southern-and-eastern area the variations were somewhat
similar to those in the northern-and-western area except that the va-
riations were more marked and prices did not go down to the level
of District 6 after the crop of 1928 was harvested because southern
Illinois had a poor crop of corn in 1928.
One practical conclusion to be drawn from this analysis is that
the opportunities to profit from storing corn in years of large crops
for marketing in years of short crops are greater in northern, south-
ern, and western Illinois than they are in the heavy grain-marketing
districts in the central and eastern parts of the state. This conclusion
is based on the greater variability in price in the first mentioned areas.
The greater variability in these sections reflects, in part at least, the
fact that they are livestock sections which, during years of short crops
or overexpanded livestock production, find it necessary to import corn,
while the eastern and central districts, which market a large part of
their grain, do not need to bring grain in, even when crops are short.
Another conclusion that may be drawn is that the relationships be-
tween the price of corn (and other feed grain) and prices of livestock
or livestock products may vary considerably in different parts of the
state.
Wheat. The price of wheat in central Illinois (District 5) was
taken as the standard for comparison.1 The differences that occurred
between prices in this district and in the other districts are shown in
Fig. 29. In the northern districts (Nos. 1 and 3) and particularly in
the eastern (No. 6) the price varied but little from the price in No. 5.
'Analysis indicated that a difference of 4 to 6 cents between the price of
wheat in the other districts and in No. 6 was significant. See footnote page 588.
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
591
In the other five districts, which include all of western and southern
Illinois, the price was typically above the price in No. 5, altho the
amounts were rather variable. The explanation for this higher level
v^^
V
A5»./
vAx^-
^^^
\^~
</
Afc.j
•^^^
^J
VNX
^v/^V^
x^
IfMMtf
w cfvrj
+/o
oy\ A ^ ylvV^M^^v* ^v^^Sy
-/«
•*•
MV
f
-/»
t*0
M9
o
-/a
+to
f!0
o
-'° ' No. j*
t«/o
<7
-/O
+ZO
•f/0
O
-/o
w
•no
o
-to
•no
•HO
0
-to
FIG. 29. — WHEAT: AMOUNTS BY WHICH MONTHLY FARM PRICE IN VARIOUS
DISTRICTS VARIED FROM PRICE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS
(DISTRICT 5), 1925 TO 1929
Prices in the northern and eastern parts of the state varied relatively little
from those in the central part, but in the soft-wheat producing districts in
western and southern Illinois the variations were considerable.
is that the wheat produced in these sections is largely soft and tends
to bring a higher price than the hard wheat which predominates in the
central part of the state. These premiums, however, are quite vari-
able; they were particularly large in the early part of 1925 and again
in 1928.
592
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
IS27
FIG. 30. — HAY: AMOUNTS BY WHICH MONTHLY FARM PRICE IN VARIOUS
DISTRICTS VARIED FROM PRICE IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
(DISTRICT 6A>, 1925 TO 1929
The prices in all of the other parts of the state were higher than in south-
eastern Illinois by irregular amounts.
Hay. The price of hay in all districts has been compared with the
price in District 6a in the southeastern part of the state, where hay
prices average lower than elsewhere in the state (Fig. 30) .* Hay
prices are, of course, particularly subject to the influence of local con-
ditions. The differences between the price in the base district and
in the central, eastern, and southwestern districts were particularly
marked. An illustration of a local influence was the relatively large
margin which prevailed in the northeastern district from the spring of
1928 until midsummer 1929 as the result of a short hay crop in 1928.
'Differences of $3 a ton or larger were found to be significant.
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
593
FIG. 31. — HOGS: AMOUNTS BY WHICH MONTHLY FARM PRICE IN VARIOUS
DISTRICTS VARIED FROM PRICE IN WESTERN ILLINOIS
(DISTRICT 4), 1925 TO 1929
There was a general tendency for the price in the other parts of the state
to rise in relation to the price in western Illinois.
Hogs. The price in the western part of the state, the principal hog-
producing district, was taken as the standard for comparison.1 Altho
differences between districts were not large on the average, consider-
able month-to-month variation occurred, particularly in Districts 1, 3,
6a, 7, and 9. In all the northern part of the state the price of hogs
differences of less than 25 cents per 100 pounds between the district aver-
ages were not significant.
594
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
DtVIATIONJ
o
-10
+10
o
-/o
+10
o
-10
0
-/O
+10
O
-to
+/0
0
-/o
+10
o
-to
+/O
o
-/o
No. i
A/0.4
No. 4 a
No.6
No. 6 a
No. 7
No. 9
FIG. 32.— BUTTERFAT: AMOUNTS BY WHICH MONTHLY FARM PRICE IN
VARIOUS DISTRICTS VARIED FROM PRICE IN NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS (DISTRICT 3), 1925 TO 1929
A slight tendency for the price in the other parts of the state to rise in
relation to the price in northeastern Illinois is evident.
showed a tendency thruout this period to rise in comparison with the
price in District 4. This tendency was least noticeable in District 4a,
where the price corresponded most closely with that in No. 4. Part
of the irregularity probably reflects differences in the type of hog which
the reporters have in mind when making their reports. As stated
above, the price in the two southern districts (Nos. 7 and 9) varied
considerably. This was especially true during the first nine months
of 1928 (Fig. 31).
Butterfat. District 3 (the northeastern), where butterfat prices
1930]
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
595
•no
o
-so
+to
o
-10
•HO
0
-10
+10
0
-to
no
o
-/o
•HO
o
-/o
•HO
0
-to
+/0
o
-to
No 4
No. 4,
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
FIG. 33. — EGGS: AMOUNTS BY WHICH MONTHLY FARM PRICE IN VARIOUS
DISTRICTS VARIED FROM PRICE IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
(DISTRICT 3), 1925 TO 1929
The margins were not very variable and tended to maintain about the same
level during this period.
were highest, was taken as the standard. In all the other districts
prices tended to rise in comparison with prices in No. 3, and the margin
between the various districts therefore tended to diminish. There were
no very large month-to-month variations in these differences (Fig.
32). l This diminishing margin raises an interesting question. Does
it reflect improved quality or does it indicate a tendency for marketing
agencies to buy on narrower margins? A considerable margin con-
'Differences of less than 2 cents per pound between districts were not
significant.
5% BULLETIN No. 363 [December,
tinues to exist between the prices in the two southern districts and
those obtaining in the northern part of the state.
Eggs. Prices in District 3, where they averaged highest, were
again taken as the standard (Fig. 33 ).1 Prices in the other districts
showed no tendency during this period to rise in relation to prices in
District 6. The month-to-month variations in the margin were con-
siderable and there was no tendency toward a very definite and regular
seasonal variation in the margins between the prices in the different
districts. If anything, the margin tended to diminish in the spring and
increase in the fall months, that is, the price was relatively higher in
the outlying districts in the spring than in the winter when compared
with the price in the counties close to Chicago.
SUMMARY
Wide differences have developed among the relative prices of im-
portant Illinois farm products in recent years. On the average, prices
of these products during the years from 1921 to 1928 were lower than
the prices of the items which enter into farm costs. Listed in the order
of their comparative cheapness, Illinois farm prices of important items
for the eight-year period 1921-1928 were the following percentages
of 1910-1914 prices: horses, 57; hay, 99; barley, 103; oats, 104; hogs,
124; corn, 124; cattle and milk cows, 126; wheat, 136; eggs, 143; but-
ter, 160; wool, 163; apples, 164; chickens, 184; lambs, 186 percent.
The cheapest products were those which had been adversely in-
fluenced by the reduction in use of horses as a source of power. Crops
were in general cheaper than livestock and livestock products, and
feed crops were cheaper than wheat. Meat animals, except lambs,
were in an intermediate position. Butter, wool, lambs, and chickens
were relatively high in price.
It is readily apparent that no single cause explains this wide va-
riety of change. In the body of this publication facts relating to each
commodity are presented. Space does not permit a complete review
of them here.
A question of practical importance is: How permanent will these
differences prove to be? The following principles may be useful as a
guide in answering this question:
(1) Products for which the demand has been reduced may be ex-
pected to continue to be relatively cheap ; horses, oats, hay, and barley
are examples. (2) Products for which the demand has increased may
'Differences of less than 2 cents per dozen were not significant.
1930] PRICKS OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS 597
be expected to continue relatively high in price. Examples are dairy
products, chickens, and perhaps lambs. (3) Products involving much
labor or new capital investments will tend to remain relatively higher
than those requiring but little labor or small outlays of capital. This
would tend to cause milk and its products to be higher than hogs or
wheat. (4) Products, the cost of which are being cheapened by im-
proved methods of production, are likely to be relatively cheap. This
does not mean that they will be less profitable at the lower price-level
to those farmers who use the new methods. This factor is probably
operating at the present time to reduce the price of wheat, eggs, and
hogs. (5) The more bulky products which have a low value per pound
are likely to remain relatively cheap because increased costs of market-
ing, including transportation, make up a large proportion of their total
value. Hay and oals in surplus regions are examples.
In general, the conditions which have tended to establish a given
level of prices during the last several years may be expected to con-
tinue to have the same influence during the next few years. There
is one important exception to this rule — any commodity which during
this period has been in the low or high portion of a regular cycle may
be expected to change its position. This is illustrated by the change in
the price of cattle during 1927. It should be noted that differences in
prices do not necessarily represent differences in profits ; they may
simply represent differences in costs.
A number of factors have tended to make the prices of the goods
that farmers buy relatively higher than the prices of farm products.
Among these are the tendency for industrial output to react more
quickly to unfavorable prices than farm output, the increased demands
for certain nonagricultural products, reduced foreign demand for farm
products, ability of certain other economic groups to establish and
maintain higher scales of remuneration, and increased expenses for
marketing, including transportation and conversion.
In this study the relative variability of the prices of these different
commodities has been compared by computing for each commodity
the average variations in the yearly averages from the average price
for the entire period. In percentages these figures ranged from 3.2
for horses to 22.4 for potatoes. For other important items they were
as follows: eggs, 4.6; butter, 5.4; oats, 10.6; wheat, 10.8; lambs, 13.5;
apples, 14.1; cattle, 14.6; hogs, 15.5; wool, 17.0; corn, 17.8.
Variations in farm prices within the state have been studied for the
years 1925 to 1929. The differences can be most quickly grasped by
reference to Figs. 20 to 27. The grains in general were cheapest in
598
BULLETIN No. 363
[December,
the central and east-central parts of the state. Prices of oats and wheat
showed greater variations among the different districts than did corn
prices. Hay was highest in price in the eastern and central parts of the
state and cheapest in the western and southern. Beef cattle, milk cows,
lambs, sheep, and wool were lower in price in the southern part of the
state than in the northern. Prices of veal calves and hogs varied but
little among districts. Butterfat, eggs, and chickens were highest in the
northeastern part of the state and averaged lower in districts to the
south and west.
TABLE 7. — AVERAGE ILLINOIS FARM PRICES OF SELECTED FARM PRODUCTS 1910-1929
AND INDEX NUMBERS OF PRICES'
(1910-1914 = 100)
Year
Apples
Barley
Beef cattle
Butter
Chickens
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
1910
$1.11
1.22
.87
.92
1.10
.83
.89
1.43
1.63
2.35
2.39
2.31
2.06
1.55
1.44
1.60
1.50
1.48
1.71
1.83
106.7
117.3
83.6
88.5
105.8
79.8
85.6
137.5
156.7
226.0
229.8
222.1
198.1
149.0
138.5
153.8
144.2
142.3
164.4
176.0
$ .57
.73
.77
.53
.56
.63
.74
1.18
1.27
1.07
1.20
.58
.55
.59
.70
.74
.60
.68
.74
.53
90.5
115.9
122.2
84.1
88.9
100.0
117.5
187.3
201.6
169.8
190.5
92.1
87.3
93.6
111.1
117.5
95.2
107.9
117.5
84.1
$5.11
4.96
5.92
6.61
7.08
6.73
7.39
9.38
11.02
11.33
9.67
6.11
6.48
6,60
6.51
7.58
7.46
8.64
10.71
10.54
86.0
83.5
99.7
111.3
119.2
113.3
124.4
157.9
185.5
190.7
162.8
102.9
109.1
111.1
109.6
127.6
125.6
145.4
180.3
177.4
$ .25
.23
.26
.27
.26
.26
.28
.35
.43
.50
.54
.37
.35
.40
.40
.40
.42
.43
.44
.44
100.0
92.0
104.0
108.0
104.0
104.0
112.0
140.0
172.0
200.0
216.0
148.0
140.0
160.0
160.0
160.0
168.0
172.0
176.0
176.0
* .12
.10
.10
.12
.12
.12
.14
.17
.21
.24
.26
.21
.19
.19
.20
.20
.22
.20
.21
.22
109.1
90.9
90.9
109.1
109.1
109.1
127.3
154.5
190.9
218.2
236.4
190.9
172.7
172.7
181.8
181.8
200.0
181.8
190.9
200.0
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
V,,
Clover seed
(red)
Corn
Eggs
Hay
Hogs
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
1910
$ 7.27
9.05
10.78
9.30
8.69
8.93
9.70
10.84
16.70
23.90
23.22
10.47
10.94
11.59
13.75
16.10
17.65
20.10
17.42
15.90
80.6
100.3
119.5
103.1
96.3
99.0
107.5
120.2
185.1
265.0
257.4
116.1
121.3
128.5
152.4
178.5
195.7
222.8
193.1
176.3
$ .53
.50
.63
.57
.67
.68
.73
1.39
1.31
1.49
1.35
.49
.53
.73
.86
.93
.63
.74
.86
.84
91.4
86.2
108.6
98.3
115.5
117.2
125.9
239.6
225.9
256.9
232.8
84.5
91.4
125.9
148.3
160.3
108.6
127.6
148.3
144.8
$ .22
.18
.22
.21
.22
.21
.25
.34
.39
.43
.46
.32
.28
.29
.30
.33
.31
.28
.30
.31
104.8
85.7
104.8
100.0
104.8
100.0
119.0
161.9
185.7
204.8
219.0
152.4
133.3
138.1
142.8
157.1
147.6
133.3
142.8
147.6
$11.77
14.53
16.45
12.65
14.36
12.94
11.38
15.34
20.67
21.20
24.35
15.32
12.58
13.45
15.56
13.13
15.35
13.18
11.41
11.67
84.4
104.2
117.9
90.7
102.9
92.8
81.6
110.0
148.2
152.0
174.6
109.8
90.2
96.4
111.5
94.1
110.0
94.5
81.8
83.6
$8.41
6.23
6.97
7.81
7.80
6.69
8.74
14.60
16.53
16.85
13.33
7.92
8.72
7.17
7.62
11.38
12.15
9.88
9.02
9.78
113.0
83.7
93.7
105.0
104.8
89.9
117.5
196.2
222.2
226.5
179.2
106.4
117.2
96.4
102.4
153.0
163.3
132.8
121.2
131.4
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
(Table 7 concluded on page 599)
1930}
PRICES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRODUCTS
599
Month-to-month variations between prices in different parts of
the state from 1925 to 1929 are shown in Figs. 28 to 33. These vari-
ations were rather marked in the cases of corn, wheat, hay, and hogs
and rather small in the case of butterfat and eggs. Corn prices were
more variable in northern, western, and southern Illinois than in cen-
tral and east-central Illinois. Margins between the prices of hogs and
butterfat in the various parts of the state apparently decreased during
this period.
TABLE 7. — AVERAGE ILLINOIS FARM PRICES OF SELECTED FARM PRODUCTS 1910-1929
AND INDEX NUMBERS OF PRICES' — Concluded
(1910-1914 = 100)
Year
Horses
Lambs
Milk cows
Oats
Potatoes
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
1910.. .
$156.83
151.92
152.92
152.17
144.08
138.74
141.42
141.42
138.33
127.75
125.58
93.58
89.17
86.50
79.83
84.99
85.75
83.17
85.83
86.33
103.5
100.2
100.9
100.4
95.0
91.5
93.3
93.3
91.3
84.3
82.8
61.7
58.8
57.1
52.7
56.1
56.6
54.9
56.6
57.0
$6.31
5.05
5.67
6.18
6.43
7.29
8.71
12.82
14.43
13.51
12.33
7.14
9.97
10.31
11.05
13.13
12.17
11.86
12.49
12.59
106.4
85.2
95.6
104.2
108.4
122.9
146.9
216.2
243.3
227.8
207.9
120.4
168.1
173.9
186.3
221.4
205.2
200.0
210.61
212. 3»
$48.15
48.27
49.87
59.32
64.09
63.74
68.06
81.30
91.16
100.47
94.26
59.28
56.75
60.47
62.12
64.26
70.53
77.83
94.33
100.25'
89.3
89.5
92.4
110.0
118.8
118.2
126.2
150.7
169.0
186.3
174.7
109.9
105.2
112.1
115.2
119.1
130.8
144.3
174.9
185.8
$ .37
.35
.41
.35
.39
.44
.42
.60
.73
.65
.74
.33
.33
.40
.45
.42
.36
.42
.46
.42
97.4
92.1
107.9
92.1
102.6
115.8
110.5
157.9
192.1
171.0
194.7
86.8
86.8
105.3
118.4
110.5
94.7
110.5
121.0
110.5
$ .58
.91
.98
.75
.91
.60
1.22
2.18
1.37
1.74
3.10
1.40
1.29
1.04
.98
1.34
2.23
1.67
1.02
1.10
69.9
109.6
118.1
90.4
109.6
72.3
147.0
262.6
165.1
209.6
373.5
168.6
155.4
125.3
118.1
161.4
268.7
201.2
122.9
132.5
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
Year
Rye
Sheep
Veal calves
Wheat
Wool
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
Price
Index
No.
1910
$ .74
.76
.79
.66
.70
.92
.96
1.61
1.79
1.42
1.62
1.07
.80
.74
.80
1.01
.83
.90
.96
.92
101.4
104.1
108.2
90.4
95.9
126.0
131.5
220.5
245.2
194.2
221.9
146.6
109.6
101.4
109.6
138.4
113.7
123.3
131.5
126.0
$4.73
3.66
3.97
4.35
4.58
5.23
6.21
8.98
11.55
8.96
7.75
4.09
5.14
5.48
6.04
6.91
6.37
6.42
6.78
6.63
111.0
85.9
93.2
102.1
107.5
122.8
145.8
210.8
271.1
210.3
181.9
96.0
120.6
128.6
141.8
162.2
149.5
150.7
159.2
155.6
$6.71
6.21
6.81
7.92
8.32
8.22
9.00
11.44
12.81
13.68
12.66
8.44
8.25
8.72
8.96
9.92
10.86
11.48
12.95
13.46
93.3
86.4
94.7
110.2
115.7
114.3
125.2
159.1
178.2
190.3
176.1
117.4
114.7
121.3
124.6
138.0
151.0
159.7
180.1
187.2
$ .99
.86
.95
.88
.90
1.15
1.25
2.05
2.07
2.17
2.26
.25
.08
.04
.14
.57
.40
.25
.28
.13
107.6
93.5
103.3
95.6
97.8
125.0
135.9
222.8
225.0
235.9
245.6
135.9
117.4
113.0
123.9
170.6
152.2
135.9
139.1
122.8
$ .23
.18
.19
.18
.19
.25
.30
.48
.61
.54
.37
.16
.27
.35
.37
.38
.35
.33
.40
.35
115.0
90.0
95.0
90.0
95.0
125.0
150.0
240.0
305.0
270.0
185.0
80.0
135.0
175.0
185.0
190.0
175.0
165.0
200.0
175.0
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
'Monthly prices for these years are available in "Illinois Crop and Live Stock Sta-
tistics," Circular 3%, Illinois Department of Agriculture.
AUTHOR INDEX
603
AUTHOR INDEX
PAGE
1. Bauer, F. C. Response of Illi-
nois soils to systems of soil
treatment 435-514
2. Bull, Sleeter, Olson, Fred C., and
Longwell, John H. Effects of
sex, length of feeding period,
and a ration of ear-corn silage
on the quality of baby beef 165-236
3. Decker, S. W. 'See Weinard 16, 17
4. Durst, Charles E. Inheritance
in lettuce 237-342
5. Flint, W. P., and Mohr, C. O.
New protection against stored-
grain insects 375-390
6. Garret t, O. F. See Overman 15
7. Gillis, Merl C. See Huelsen 9
8. Holbert, James R. See Koehler 10
9. Huelsen, Walter A., and Gillis,
Merl C. Breeding two new
varieties of greenhouse toma-
toes resistant to Fusarium wilt
. .407-434
PAGE
10. Koehler, Benjamin, and Hol-
bert, James R. Corn diseases
in Illinois 1-164
11. Longwell, John H. See Bull 2
12. Mohr, C. O. See Flint 5
13. Norton, L. J. Prices of Illinois
farm products from 1921 to
1929 515-600
14. Olson, Fred C. See Bull 2
15. Overman, O. R., and Garrett,
O. F. A nonacid Babcock
method for determining fat in
ice cream 391-406
16. Weinard, F. F., and Decker, S.
W. Experiments in forcing
gladioli 343-362
17. Weinard, F. F., and Decker, S.
W. Summer-budded versus
winter-grafted roses 363-374
604
INDEX
INDEX
PAGE
Alternaria species 149, 151
A planobacter stewarti 69, 70, 83
Apples, changes in demand for 569
Apple exports and imports, 1923-28 569
prices, 1921-29 567-68
production, 1909-28 568-69
Aspergillus species, see Index 163
Babcock method, nonacid, for deter-
mining fat in ice cream. . . .393-406
conclusions and observations .... 405
literature cited 406
plan of investigation 395, 398-99
procedure for nonacid method. .403-05
compared with official method. 405
results 399-403
review of literature on 393-95
Bacterium hold 109
Barlev, exix>rts and imports, 1921-28
532-33
prices and production, 1921-29. . .
531-33,581
Basisjwrium qallarwn, see Index.. . . 163
Beef, baby, experiments on effects of
sex, length of feeding period,
and ear-corn silage on quality of
167-233
color of lean 219-25
cooking and palatability tests. . 226-29
cutting percentages 179-81, 202
dressing percentages 177, 178, 179
firmness of fat 217-18
grading of calves and carcasses. . .
172-73, 177-79, 182-201
physical composition of carcasses
J 202-204
of wholesale cuts 204-10
of wholesale ribs 210-13, 214
of 9th, 10th, and llth ribs
213,215-17
plan of experiments 169-71
slaughter data . . 171-72, 174-76
summary and conclusions 229-33
toughness, determination of. .... 225
Beef, heifer, discrimination against
168-69,229-31
Butter, see Dairy products
Cattle, beef, numbers of on farms,
1921-28 545-46
prices of. 1921-28 544-47, 583-84
as affected by foreign conditions
546-47
by hide prices 547
PAGE
Cattle, dairy, prices and numbers of,
1921-28 547-49
veal calves, prices, 1921-28 548-49
Cephalosporium acremonium, see In-
dex . 163
Clover seed, prices and production,
1921-28 566-07
Corn, acreage of in Illinois, 1928. . . 17
changes in, 1900-26 534-35
breeding for disease resistance in. 22-26
changes in utilization of 535-37
cold injury of 42, 46, 100-101
damage from feeding moldy. . . 129-31
diseases, see Index 163-64
exports and imports 537-38
heat injury to 42, 110
insect infection or poisoning of. . .9-10
lodging of 27-28, 51. 96, 98
mechanical injury to ears 127-28
prices, 1921-28. .'. .533-34, 581, 588-90
as related to hog prices and pro-
duction 538
.protection of against stored-grain
insects, see Insects
soil management for disease pre-
vention 20-22
utility type of 23-25
Corn, seed, causes of dead 42-43
curing of 29, 32
germination test for 37, 131-52
selection, ear 32-36
plant 2»j-29
treatment of 37-41
Corn germinator, operation of . . . 132-34
Crop residues, experiments with. . . .
446-49, 451-56, 459-61. 466-70
Crop rotation, importance of . . . .509-12
Dairy products, changes in con-
sumption, 1921-28
exports and imports 563-66
prices, 1921-29 561-62, 563
Diplodia zeae, see Index 163
Eggs, see Poultry products
Fats, production and consumption,
1921-28 542-43
Frost, average dates of killing .... 13-14
Fusarium lycopersici 409, 411
Fusarium species, see Index 163
Fusarium wilt, see Tomatoes
GibbereUa saubinettii, see Index 163
INDEX
605
PAGE
Gladioli, experiments in forcing. .345-61
effect on production of artificial
lighting 356-57, 359, 360
of chemical treatments 352, 355, 360
of holding over of corms358, 359, 360
of second forcing 347, 348, 359
of size of corm 347-48, 359
of storage temperature. . 349-51, 359
of time of planting. .351-52, 353, 360
of variety 345-47
literature cited 360-61
Grain insects, see Insects
Hay, prices and production, 1921-29
" 527-29,581-83,592
Helmiiitliosparium turcicum. .57, 107-108
Hogs, prices, 1921-28
538-39, 584-85, 593-94
production of as related to corn
crop 538, 539-41
Holcus bacterial spot 109
Hormodendrum species 150
Horses, prices and production, 1921-
29 524-26
Ice cream, determination of fat in,
see Babcock method
Insect infection or poisoning 9-10
Insects, stored-grain, protection of
corn against 376-90
effect of treatment on feeding
value 386-87
former methods, disadvantages of
377-78
formula for oil emulsion 376
method of using 390
method of tests 378-81
results with oils, dust, and acid
381-86,388
summary 388
Kainit. varying response to 466-70
Lard, consumption, production, ex-
ports 541-42
Lettuce, flowering habits 240-42
inheritance studies 239-41
deviations in Mendelian ratios.
324-27
inheritance of anthocyanin pig-
ment 245-50
of habit of growth 317-23
of height at flowering 310-17
of prickles 254-59
of quantitative characters 264-300
of seed color 250-54
of time required to flower. 301-10
literature cited 339-41
method of estimating number of
factors involved in quanti-
tative inheritance 331-34
method of experiments 239-45
summary and conclusions . . . 337-38
terminology for qualitative
characters . . 338
PAGE
variability of quantitative char-
acters 327-28
of "behavior of wild and culti-
vated 328-30
nomenclature of 336-37
origin of cultivated 334-36
Limestone, light and heavy initial
applications 455-56
single and related application. .454-55
with manure and with crop resi-
dues 449-56
with other fertilizers 456-70
Manure, value of alone 444-46
with limestone 449-51
with limestone and rock phos-
phate , 456-58
Milk, see Dairy products
Morrow plots, results on 509-12
Mucor species 70, 99
Oats, imports, 1921-29 531
prices and production, 1921-29. . .
529-31,581
Oils, production and consumption.542-43
Penicillium species, see Index 163
Phosphates, experiments with, see
Soil treatments
problems in use of 461-66
Physoderma zeae-maydis 57, 104
Pork, consumption and exports,
1921-28 541-42
relation of corn crop to production
539-41
of foreign conditions 543
Potash, see Kainit
Potatoes, exports and imports, 1921-
28 571
prices and production, 1921-29.. 569-71
Poultry products, exports and im-
ports, 1921-29 560
prices and production, 1921-29. . .
558-61, 586-87, 595,596
Prices of Illinois farm products,
1921-29, study of 517-99
average prices, Illinois, 1910-29.598-99
comparisons between 1910-14 and
1921-29 518-20
between 1921-24 and 1925-29.. 520
comparison of with index numbers
of items purchased 571-74
reasons for lowness of 574-78
expense of marketing 578
increased demand .for non-
agricultural products . . . 576
lower wage scale in agricul-
ture.... 577
reduced foreign demand 576
slowness of farm adjust-
ment 575-76
farm adjustments to meet changes
in.. ..522-24
606
INDEX
PAGE
index numbers of, average Illinois,
1910-29 598-99
variability in yearly 579-80
price relationships, permanency of
520-22
not indicative of relative profit.. 522
price situation for apples 567-69
barley 531-33
cattle, beef 544-47
dairy 547-48
veal calves 548-49
clover seed 566-67
corn ..533-34
as related to hog production. . 538
dairy products 561-62
hay: 527-29
hogs 538-39
horses 524-26
oats 529-31
potatoes 569-71
poultry products 558-61
rye 552-53
sheep 553-55, 557-58
wheat 549-52
wool 555-57
scope of study 517
summary 596-99
variations of within state, 1925-29
580-88
monthly 588-96
Puccinia sorghi 57, 101-102
Pythium species, see Index 163
Rainfall in Illinois 14, 16
Rhizopus species, see Index 164
Roses, experiments in summer bud-
ding vs. winter grafting 365-73
comparison of flower production..
366-67,369,373
of rate of .... 368, 369, 370, 371, 372
of stem length 369-71, 373
plan of experiment 365-66
Rye, exports, 1921-28 553
prices and production, 1921-29.. 552-53
Sderospora graminicola 77
Scutellum rot, see Index 164
Sheep and lambs, exports, 1921-28.. 555
prices and production, 1921-29. . .
.... . 553-55, 557-58, 585
Soil experiment fields, analyses of
untreated soils on 514a-c
Soil management, factor in disease
prevention 20-22
principles in 508-12
Soil map of Illinois
between pp. 440 and 441
Soil treatments, study of on Illinois
soils.. 437-514
changes in effectiveness of 474-75
comparative response of light and
dark soils in grain and live-
PAGE
stock systems 470-72
cffectivenesss of different treat-
ments on and recommenda-
tions for brownish yellow soils
with open, noncalcareous sub-
soils 500-.'04
dark soils with heavy, calcar-
eous subsoils 480-82
with heavy noncalcareous
soils 476-80
dark soils with impervious, non-
calcareous subsoils 4SS-91
with noncalcareous subsoils 482-84
with open, noncalcareous
subsoils 484-87
gray soils with impervious, non-
calcareous subsoils 491-99
hilly land 506-508
sandy loams and sand 504-506
yellow soils with noncalcareous
subsoils 499-500
plan of study 437-38, 441-42
soil types represented 439-40
summary 512-14
systems of treatment used 438-39
giving largest returns 474-75
total level of crop production a
guide to value of treatment
472-74
variation in soils in response to
crop residues alone 446-49
kainit, crop residues, limestone,
and phosphate 466-70
limestone and crop residues. .4o 1-56
limestone and manure 449-51
manure alone 444-46
rock phosphate, limestone, and
crop residues 459-'.'!
rock phosphate, limestone, and
manure 456-58
rock phosphate with and with-
out limestone 461-66
Soils, changes in thru natural forces
508-509
untreated, analyses of 514a-c
variations in 442-44
reduced by treatment.. .472-73
Sorosporium reilianum 57, 87
Tomatoes, experiments in breeding
wilt-resistant 408-34
characteristics of varieties used. 415-17
crosses made 417-18
development of Blair Forcing. .423-27
of Lloyd Forcing 418-23
comparison of in wilt resist-
ance 432-33
in performance 427-31
literature cited 434
purpose and methods .410-13
results with preliminary tests. .413-15
I.NDEX
007
PAOB
summary 40S
Trichoderma 70
Ustilago zeae 19, 57, 84
Wheat, consumption, imports, and
PAGE
exports, 1921-28 550
prices and production, 1921-29
549-52, 581, 590-91
Wool, imports and prices, 1921-28.555-57
m
24 193!
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