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Full text of "Relation of wheat acreage and production to wheat, corn, oat, and soybean prices in Illinois"

UNIVERSITY OF 

ILLINOIS LIBRARY 

AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN 



BAfi* 




A 

f 

Relation of 

WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 
To Wheat Corn, Oat, and Soybean Prices 

In Illinois 



By C. P. Schumaier 



AGRICULTURE LIBRARY 

SEP 2 6 1990 

Bulletin 648 UNIVERSITY OF !L!.SNC|- 

University of Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station 



CONTENTS 

Scope of the Study and Method of Analysis 3 

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage 4 

Price and Revenue Ratios Between Wheat and 

Competing Crops 7 

Relation of Wheat Production and Acreage to 

Price and Revenue Ratios 11 

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage, by Districts 11 

Summary 17 

Conclusions. . , . 19 



Urbana, Illinois December, 1959 

Publications in the Bulletin series report the results of investigations made 

or sponsored by the Experiment Station 



Relation of Wheat Acreage and Production 
to Wheat, Corn, Oat and Soybean Prices in Illinois 

By C. P. SCHUMAIER, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics 

THE AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES of Illinois can be devoted to a variety 
of uses because of the state's rich soil, long growing season, and 
abundant, reliable rainfall. Illinois farmers may vary their crop- 
production patterns considerably among wheat, other small grains, 
corn and sorghum, and oilseed crops in response to economic incentives. 
Farmers in Illinois may operate on the economic principle of compara- 
tive advantage. Few groups of farmers are so fortunate. Farmers on 
the cold and dry margins must grow crops with the least disadvantage 
compared with richer agricultural regions. 

Although Illinois farmers as a whole are fortunately endowed, the 
most productive land and the most favorable climatic conditions are in 
central and east-central Illinois. Southern Illinois land is much less 
fertile, yields are more variable, and alternatives more restricted than 
in central Illinois. Also, the state is some 400 miles long from north 
to south. Spring oats, for example, do well only from the central part 
of the state north, and winter oats are a dependable crop only in the 
extreme southern part of the state. 

Because of the nature of agricultural resources in Illinois, experi- 
ence in the state should provide a good test of two hypotheses with 
respect to wheat production: (1) wheat acreage and production de- 
cline in Illinois when prices are unfavorable and increase when prices 
are favorable compared with prices of competing crops, and (2) wheat- 
production adjustments related to price are greater in central Illinois, 
where there are more good alternatives, than in southern Illinois, where 
alternatives are more restricted. 

Scope of the Study and Method of Analysis 

This report analyzes production and acreage of wheat in Illinois 
in relation to the price-per-bushel and revenue-per-acre ratios between 
wheat and corn, oats, and soybeans during the years 1927-1958. As 
used in this study, the term "wheat" refers to winter wheat. A small 
amount of spring wheat was produced in the early years but the 
amount is now so negligible that spring wheat is no longer reported 
separately. 

Consideration of revenue-per-acre ratios is particularly important 



4 BULLETIN No. 648 [December, 

for this study because of the changes in yields due to technological 
advances during the period studied. For example, if during a given 
period of time corn had the same price-per-bushel ratios but increasing 
average yields relative to competing wheat, oats, and soybeans, then 
corn would earn more revenue per acre than the other crops and 
become relatively more profitable. 

Data for this study were taken from reports of the Illinois Co- 
operative Crop Reporting Service for the years 1927 through 1958 
and from annual issues of Agricultural Statistics, published by the 
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1929 through 1958. Percentages and 
averages were the only measures used to test the hypotheses. 

Three periods were selected for comparison: 1929-1938, 1942- 
1947, and 1952-1957. They represent, respectively, the prewar aver- 
age, the situation during and immediately following World War II, 
and the postwar average. The periods are referred to in the text as 
prewar, war, and postwar, to make the reading easier. 

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage 

Production. During the prewar period (1929-1938) Illinois pro- 
duced an average of 36 million bushels of wheat annually (Table 1). 
The record year during this period was 1931 with 48.9 million bushels. 

Production began to fall in 1938 and was down to 12.8 million 
bushels in 1942. Production during the war period (1942-1947) aver- 
aged only 21 million bushels annually, 42 percent less than the prewar 
average. 

In 1947 production began to increase rapidly and reached a record 
high of almost 61 million bushels in 1956. Average annual production 
during the postwar period (1952-1957) was almost 50 million bushels, 
more than double the production during the war period and 38 per- 
cent more than the average of the prewar period. 

Illinois ranked ninth among states in total wheat production in the 
1947-1956 decade. In the 1941-1950 decade, Illinois had ranked 
thirteenth. 

Illinois' percentage share of total United States wheat production 
ranged from 3.4 to 6.9 and averaged 4.8 percent in the prewar period 
(Table 1). The decline in Illinois wheat production after 1937 was 
accompanied by a decline in the state's percentage share of total U.S. 
production; in 1942 Illinois' percentage share fell to less than one-third 
of the prewar average. Illinois produced between 1.3 and 2.3 percent 
and an average of 2.0 percent of U.S. wheat during the six-year war 
period. 



1959] 



RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 



Beginning in 1948 the uptrend in Illinois wheat production raised 
Illinois' percentage share of total production to a postwar high of 
6.1 percent in 1956. For the six-year postwar period, Illinois produced 
4.7 percent of the nation's wheat, a slightly smaller share than the 4.8 
percent of the prewar period, although total Illinois production aver- 
aged 38 percent more than in the prewar period. 

Table 1. Illinois and United States Wheat Production and Illinois 
Production as a Percent of Total United States Production, 1927-1958 



Year 


Illinois 


United 
States 


Relation of 
Illinois produc- 
tion to U. S. 








production 




million 


bushels 


percent 


1927.. 


31.0 


875.1 


3.5 


1928 


19.5 


914.4 


2.1 


1929.... 


30.8 


824.2 


3.7 


1930 


36.9 


886.5 


4.2 


1931 


48.9 


941.5 


5.2 


1932 


26.0 


756.3 


3.4 


1933 


30.7 


552.2 


5.6 


1934.. 


36.5 


526.1 


6.9 


1935 


30.1 


628.2 


4.8 


1936 


36.4 


629.9 


5.8 


1937 


44.9 


873.9 


5.1 


1938 


40.9 


919.9 


4.4 


1939.. 


39.8 


741.2 


5.4 


1940 


39.3 


814.6 


4.8 


1941 


34.3 


942.0 


3.6 


1942 


12.8 


969.4 


1.3 


1943 


17.0 


843.8 


2.0 


1944.. 


24.3 


1,060.1 


2.3 


1945 


24 . 8 


1,107.6 


2.2 


1946 


19.4 


1,152.1 


1.7 


1947 


28.3 


1,358.9 


2.1 


1948 


38.5 


1,294.9 


3.0 


1949.. 


44.0 


1,098.4 


4.0 


1950 


27.6 


1,019.4 


2.5 


1951 


33.4 


988.2 


3.4 


1952 


42.4 


1,306.4 


3.2 


1953 


59.4 


1,173.1 


5.1 


1954.. 


47.8 


983.9 


4.9 


1955 


52.0 


934.7 


5.6 


1956 


60.9 


1,004.3 


6.1 


1957 


36.5 


950.7 


3.8 


1958 


54.2 


1,462.2 


3.7 


Average 








1929-1938 (prewar) 


36.2 


753.9 


4.8 


1942-1947 (war) 


21.1 


1,082.0 


2.0 


1952-1957 (postwar) 


49.8 


1,058.9 


4.7 



BULLETIN No. 648 



[December, 



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1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 7 

Acreage. The total annual acreage in the four principal Illinois 
grain crops increased from about 15 million to 18 million acres from 
1927 to 1958 (Table 2). Wheat acreage declined from about 2 million 
acres in the prewar period to about 1.2 million during the war period 
and then increased again to 1.8 million in the postwar period. The 
acreage in soybeans increased from less than 200,000 in 1927 to over 5 
million in 1958, while oat acreage declined from 4 million to less than 
3 million. Corn acreage showed no consistent trend, ranging from a 
low of 7.6 million to a high of 9.8 million during the 32-year period. 

Corn occupied 50 percent or more of the land in the four crops 
from 1927 to 1955 except for two years (Table 2). Since 1955 corn 
acreage has been just under half of the total acreage. The percentage 
of acres in oats declined steadily from 27 percent in 1927 to only 14 
percent in 1958, while the percentage in soybeans increased steadily 
from 1 percent in 1927 to 29 percent in 1958. The percentage of acres 
in wheat averaged 13 percent in the prewar period, decreased to 7 
percent during the war period, and rose during the postwar period to 
10 percent. 

Price and Revenue Ratios Between Wheat 
and Competing Crops 

Price-per-bushel ratios. Over the 31-year period 1927-1957 the 
price of wheat in Illinois averaged 140.58 percent of the price of corn, 
268.81 percent of the price of oats, and 85.84 percent of the price of 
soybeans (Tables 3 and 4). Expressed in another way, one bushel of 
wheat was worth 1.41 bushels of corn, 2.69 bushels of oats, and 0.86 
bushel of soybeans. 

One bushel of wheat was worth 1.46 bushels of corn in the prewar 
period, 1.29 bushels of corn in the war period, and 1.44 bushels of 
corn in the postwar period. In effect wheat prices relative to corn 
prices decreased 12 percent from prewar to war and increased 11 per- 
cent from war to postwar. 

Relative to oat prices, wheat prices decreased 19 percent from 
prewar to war and increased 25 percent from war to postwar. One 
bushel of wheat was worth 2.78 bushels of oats prewar, 2.25 bushels 
war, and 2.98 bushels postwar. 

In the postwar period price relationships between wheat and corn 
and oats were similar to those of the prewar period. Soybeans, how- 



BULLETIN No. 648 



[December, 



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1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 9 

ever, show a significant price advantage over wheat in the postwar 
compared to the prewar period. One bushel of wheat was worth 0.99 
bushel of soybeans prewar but only 0.81 bushel postwar; during the 
war one bushel of wheat was worth 0.75 bushel of soybeans. Wheat 

Table 4. Wheat Price per Bushel and Revenue per Acre as Percents 

of Corn, Oat, and Soybean Price per Bushel and Revenue 

per Acre, Illinois, 1927-1957 

Relation of wheat price and revenue to price and revenue of: 
v Corn Oats Soybeans 

Price Revenue Price Revenue Price Revenue 
per bu. per acre per bu. per acre per bu. per acre 

percent 

1927.. 153 65 283 150 81 84 

1928 149 61 313 129 76 71 

1929.. 147 60 287 207 70 59 

1930 139 94 250 239 64 67 

1931 160 102 235 163 114 149 

1932 156 56 323 133 89 69 

1933 170 104 266 219 120 132 

1934.. 108 89 198 269 99 92 

1935 131 49 336 171 124 97 

1936 97 72 255 157 86 95 

1937 219 80 368 140 129 113 

1938 136 57 265 151 95 75 

1939.. 135 54 233 155 91 76 

1940 116 61 237 111 84 107 

1941 136 52 246 115 66 61 

1942 131 32 241 80 74 46 

1943 140 46 203 101 82 65 

1944.. 141 61 208 128 73 66 

1945 129 51 233 96 75 69 

1946 131 37 248 94 79 53 

1947 103 55 216 133 68 79 

1948 165 61 294 147 91 86 

1949.. 146 62 284 158 83 75 

1950 129 49 256 122 82 67 

1951 128 44 266 126 79 59 

1952 137 54 274 170 75 72 

1953 128 66 269 204 68 93 

1954.. 143 85 303 222 82 114 

1955 138 82 335 197 83 120 

1956 147 81 287 229 86 113 

1957 170 56 321 173 92 76 

Average 

1927-1957 140.58 63.81 268.81 157.71 85.84 83.87 

1929-1938 146.30 76.30 278.30 184.90 99.00 94.80 

1942-1947 129.17 47.00 224.83 105.33 75.17 63.00 

1952-1957.. 143.83 70.67 298.17 199.17 81.00 98.00 



10 BULLETIN No. 648 [December, 

prices relative to soybean prices decreased 24 percent from prewar to 
war and increased only 7 percent from war to postwar. 

Revenue-per-acre ratios. Revenue per acre is dependent upon both 
price and yield. Hybrid corn was introduced in the 1930's and yields 
have increased rapidly since then (Table 3). From the prewar to the 
war period average yields of corn increased 41 percent, while oat yields 
increased 34 percent and soybean yields, 13 percent. Wheat yields were 
practically the same in both periods. 

Wheat yields increased rapidly after World War II. From the war 
to the postwar period wheat yields increased 66 percent, almost as 
much as the 70-percent gain that corn yields showed from the prewar 
to the postwar period. Oat and soybean yields increased from war to 
postwar, but at a slower rate than corn and wheat. 

Wheat revenue per acre averaged about three- fourths (76.30 per- 
cent) that of corn in the prewar period and slightly less than three- 
fourths (70.67 percent) in the postwar period (Table 4). During the 
war period wheat returned less than half (47 percent) as much revenue 
per acre as corn. 

Oat prices were particularly favorable during the war period and 
yields increased relative to wheat. As a result, wheat revenue per acre, 
which had been almost double (184.90 percent) that of oats in the 
prewar period, fell below oat revenue in three of the six war years 
(Table 3). For the six-year war period, wheat averaged only a little 
more revenue per acre (105.33 percent) than oats. In the postwar 
period wheat revenue per acre was double (199.17 percent) that of oats. 

Wheat revenue per acre averaged just a little less than that of soy- 
beans in both the prewar (94.80 percent) and postwar (98 percent) 
periods. However, during the war period wheat averaged only 63 per- 
cent as much revenue per acre as soybeans. 

These price and revenue relationships show that wheat was at a 
considerable disadvantage compared with corn, oats, and soybeans 
during the war period. There are two reasons: (1) wheat prices in- 
creased less than the other crop prices during the war period, and 
(2) wheat yields increased less from the prewar through the war period 
than those of the other grains. 

In the postwar period price relationships returned to more nearly 
the prewar pattern and wheat yields increased rapidly. This reversal 
of the war-period price and yield trends resulted in wheat revenue per 
acre in the postwar period that was higher in relation to oats and soy- 
beans than in the prewar period. The postwar wheat revenue per acre 
was almost as high in relation to corn as in the prewar period. 



1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 11 

Relation of Wheat Production and Acreage 
to Price and Revenue Ratios 

Wheat acreage and production clearly show an association with 
wheat's unfavorable revenue-per-acre relationships to other crops dur- 
ing the war period and with the improvement (with respect to wheat) 
in revenue ratios in the postwar period. 

From the prewar to the war period, the revenue-per-acre ratio of 
wheat to corn decreased 38 percent, that of wheat to oats decreased 43 
percent, and that of wheat to soybeans decreased 33 percent. In the 
same period, wheat production decreased 42 percent and acreage de- 
creased 41 percent. 

From the war to the postwar period the revenue-per-acre ratios 
increased in favor of wheat by 50 percent relative to corn, by 89 per- 
cent relative to oats, and by 56 percent relative to soybeans. Wheat 
production from war to postwar increased by 136 percent and acreage 
increased by 48 percent. 

Thus the necessary conditions to establish the validity of the first 
hypothesis are met. The decline in war-period wheat acreage and 
production was associated with declining price and revenue ratios for 
wheat compared with competing crops. The return to approximately 
prewar price and revenue relationships in the postwar period was 
associated with greatly increased wheat acreage and production. 

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage, by Districts 

Production and acreage distribution. Tables 5 and 6 show the dis- 
tribution of wheat acreage and production among crop-reporting dis- 
tricts in Illinois (Fig. 1). Three districts appear to have long-time 
trends. The northwest and central districts have a downward trend in 
their percentage shares of total wheat acreage and production. The 
east southeast district has an upward trend. 

During the war period (1942-1947), when total wheat acreage in 
the state declined from the prewar average, the west, central, east, and 
west southwest percentage shares of total acreage and production de- 
clined, while the east southeast, southwest, and southeast percentage 
shares increased. The northwest and northeast shares are negligible 
and showed little change. 

From the war to the postwar (1952-1957) period, the west and east 
increased their percentage shares of total wheat acreage and produc- 
tion, while the southwest and southeast shares declined. The war- 
period decline in the central area appears to have stopped, although no 



12 



BULLETIN No. 648 



[December, 



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1959] 



RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 



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14 



BULLETIN No. 648 



[December, 



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7959] 



RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 



15 



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16 



BULLETIN No. 648 



[December, 



Illinois crop - reporting 
districts. (Fig. 1) 




increase is shown. The east southeast district continued to increase its 
percentage share of total acreage and production. The west southwest 
district does not show much change from the war period. This district 
averaged about 25 percent of Illinois' wheat acreage and production in 
both war and postwar periods. 

Land productivity. Crop yields in the years 1957 and 1958 were 
fairly typical in Illinois. The yields of the nine crop-reporting districts 
for these two years give a rough index of the productivity of the land 
(Table 7). The five northern and central districts have the highest 
overall average yields and the two southern areas the lowest. The 
west southwest and east southeast districts are intermediate. 

The northern and central districts usually have higher average 
yields for all four crops than the southern areas, but their advantage 
is relatively less for wheat and soybeans than for corn and oats. Not 
only do the southern areas have less fertility than the northern and 
central areas, but they also have less level land and more need to grow 
wheat in their rotations as a nurse crop for legumes. For these 
comparative-advantage and farm-management reasons, farmers in the 



1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 17 

Table 7. Crop Yields, by Districts, Illinois, 1957 and 1958 



District 


Corn 


Oats 


Wheat 


Soybeans 


1957 


1958 


1957 


1958 


1957 


1958 


1957 


1958 


Northwest 


75 


74 
70 
76 
77 
70 
72 
59 
48 
47 

69.0 


51 
47 
38 
32 
26 
26 
24 
23 
25 

39.0 


bushels per acre 
59 28 
60 27 
54 27 
55 25 
54 25 
47 19 
41 20 
29 18 
24 20 

55.0 21.0 


37 
41 
34 
36 
39 
35 
29 
25 
21 

31.5 


30 
29 
26 
30 
29 
25 
22 
20 
19 

25.5 


28 
28 
29 
30 
28 
30 
25 
26 
25 

28.0 


Northeast , 


, .. 68 


West 


,.. 65 


Central , 


, .. 72 


East 


. .. 68 


West southwest 


. .. 58 


East southeast 


. .. 49 


Southwest , 


, .. 41 


Southeast 


. . 44 


State 


... 64.0 







southern districts tend to have less flexibility than farmers in the 
northern and central districts in choice of crop-rotation patterns and 
proportions. 

Relation of production and acreage changes to productivity. The 

second hypothesis proposed at the beginning of the study stated that 
any changes in wheat production within Illinois related to changes in 
price-per-bushel or revenue-per-acre relationships between wheat and 
other grains should be greater in central Illinois, where there are more 
alternative uses for resources, than in southern Illinois. 

The data on acreage and production changes within Illinois (Tables 
5 and 6) support this hypothesis rather conclusively. Changing price 
and revenue relationships (analyzed on pages 7 to 11) were accom- 
panied by considerable increases and decreases in production in the 
rich central part of the state the west, central, and east districts 
and by much smaller changes in the southwest and southeast districts, 
the poorest section of the state. 

Summary 

The purpose of this study was to test two economic hypotheses 
with respect to wheat production in Illinois: (1) wheat acreage and 
production decline when prices are unfavorable and increase when 
prices are favorable compared with competing crops, and (2) wheat- 
production adjustments related to price are greater in central Illinois, 
where there are more good alternatives, than in southern Illinois, where 
alternatives are more restricted. 



18 BULLETIN No. 648 [December, 

Records on production, acreage, and price of wheat, corn, oats, 
and soybeans for the 32-year period 1927 through 1958 were analyzed 
to determine the relation of wheat production and acreage to the price- 
per-bushel and revenue-per-acre ratios between wheat and the three 
other crops. Three periods were selected for comparison: prewar 
(1929-1938), war (1942-1947), and postwar (1952-1957). 

Production of wheat decreased 42 percent from the prewar to the 
war period and increased 136 percent from the war to the postwar 
period. In the same periods, wheat acreage decreased 41 percent and 
then increased 48 percent. 

From the prewar to the war period, the price of wheat decreased 
12 percent relative to corn, 19 percent relative to oats, and 24 percent 
relative to soybeans. After the war price relationships returned to 
more nearly the prewar pattern; from the war to the postwar period, 
the price of wheat increased 11 percent relative to corn, 25 percent 
relative to oats, and 7 percent relative to soybeans. 

Revenue per acre depends on both price and yield. Wheat was at 
a disadvantage compared with competing crops during the war because 
both wheat prices and wheat yields increased less from prewar to war 
than those of other grains. From prewar to war, wheat revenue per 
acre decreased 38 percent relative to corn, 43 percent relative to oats, 
and 33 percent relative to soybeans. In the postwar period wheat yields 
increased rapidly. Coupled with the relative increase in the price of 
wheat, this resulted in an increase in the revenue per acre of wheat 
compared with competing crops; from the war to the postwar period 
wheat revenue per acre increased 50 percent relative to corn, 89 per- 
cent relative to oats, and 56 percent relative to soybeans. 

Thus the necessary conditions to establish the validity of the first 
hypothesis are met. The decline in war-period wheat acreage and 
production was associated with declining price and revenue ratios 
for wheat compared with competing crops, and the return to approxi- 
mately prewar price and revenue relationships in the postwar period 
was associated with greatly increased wheat acreage and production. 

Among crop-reporting districts in Illinois, the state's decline in 
wheat production and acreage from the prewar to the war period was 
most evident in the rich central part of the state the west, central, 
and east districts. In these districts, percentage shares of total wheat 
production and acreage decreased while in the less productive areas 
of the state percentage shares increased. From the war to the postwar 
period, when total production and acreage in the state increased, the 
percentage of wheat production and acreage in the three central dis- 
tricts either increased or remained constant; in the poorest section of 



1959] 



RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 



the state the southwest and southeast districts the percentage 
shares declined. 

Thus the evidence supports the validity of the second hypothesis. 
Wheat production changes within Illinois related to changing price- 
per-bushel and revenue-per-acre relationships between wheat and 
competing grains were greater in central Illinois, where there are 
more alternative uses for resources, than in southern Illinois. 

It is particularly interesting that in spite of the technological 
changes during the long period studied, the types of changes one would 
predict on the basis of economic theory did in fact occur. The relative 
changes were in the direction theory indicates they should be. 

Conclusions 

The Illinois experience should be roughly representative of wheat 
production patterns in other eastern corn-belt states and the factors 
influencing price and production could be expected to be the same. 
Table 8 gives the winter wheat acreage and production for Michigan. 
Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri. No detailed analysis was attempted, but 
inspection shows that all these states had a wartime decline from their 
1930's level and that the Indiana and Missouri patterns closely follow 
that of Illinois (Table 1). The patterns of Michigan, which is not truly 
a corn-belt state, and Ohio differ somewhat from those of Indiana, 

Table 8. Winter Wheat Acreage and Production, Selected States, 
1929-1938 Average and 1938-1957 Annually" 



Indiana 


Michigan Missouri 


Ohio 


Year 1,000 
acres 


1.000 
bu. 


1,000 

acres 


1 ,000 1 ,000 

bu. acres 


1,000 
bu. 


1,000 
acres 


1.000 
bu. 


1929-1938 


,743 
,803 
,534 
,433 
,476 
,123 

955 
,325 
,555 
,366 
,571 
,775 

,740 
,533 
,426 
,540 
,648 

,318 
,186 
,186 
,281 


30,321 
28,848 
27,612 
27,934 
34,665 
14,052 

15,274 
26,488 
34 ,980 
29,369 
36,133 
38,162 

39,150 
32,193 
23,529 
36,960 
46,144 

40,199 
34,394 
36,173 
32,666 


834 
913 
739 
779 
741 
681 

660 
987 
982 
864 
1,192 
1,395 

1,297 
1,141 
1,232 
1,429 
1,515 

948 
948 
1,043 
991 


16,742 
19,519 
15,784 
18,290 
16,286 
15,322 

11,196 
23,670 
27,005 
22,896 
29,800 
36,270 

35,019 
29,666 
30,800 
36,440 
44,692 

29,870 
27,966 
31 ,290 
28,739 


,865 
,432 
,845 
,713 
,336 
695 

973 
,294 
,304 
,213 
,321 
,785 

,946 
,359 
,318 
,252 
,578 

,373 
,551 
,660 
,643 


25,561 
31,600 
30,424 
32,547 
18,036 
9,035 

12,649 
21,998 
18,256 
18,195 
24,438 
39,270 

35,028 
23,782 
22,406 
27,544 
41 ,028 

41 ,190 
48,081 
50,630 
37,789 


2,004 
2,381 
1,906 
1,959 
1,959 
1,724 

1,603 
2,035 
2,129 
1 ,831 
2,179 
2,353 

2,353 
2,118 
1,906 
2,249 
2,384 

1,740 
1,496 
1,526 
1 ,495 


40,211 
46,420 
37,150 
42,121 
48,978 
36,205 

26,449 
46,805 
57,483 
48,522 
49,028 
57,648 

60,002 
46,596 
34,308 
55,100 
69,136 

46,980 
43,384 
39,676 
32,890 


1938 


1939 


1940 


1941 


1942 


1943 


1944 


1945 


1 946 . 


1947 


1948 


1949 


1950 


1951 


1952 


1953 


1954 


1955 


1956 


1957... 



Source: Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 



20 BULLETIN No. 648 

Illinois, and Missouri, and a detailed analysis beyond the scope of this 
study would be necessary to determine the reasons. 

Wheat production in the eastern corn belt appears to be closely 
related to changes in wheat price and revenue relationships to compet- 
ing crops. Although a period in which both price and technological 
changes combine to reduce wheat production may not occur again, 
lower wheat price supports relative to those of corn, oats, and soybeans, 
or an increase in demand (and hence, price) for competing crops rela- 
tive to wheat could be expected to reduce the incentive to produce wheat 
and to reduce wheat acreage and production in the region. 

The results of this study indicate that lower wheat price supports 
and abolition of acreage controls would cause a shift of wheat pro- 
duction from the eastern corn belt to other regions of the country. 
This shift would at least partially compensate wheat producers in other 
regions for the loss of income due to lower wheat prices. 

The land shifted from wheat in Illinois and other eastern corn -belt 
states would go into feed grains. However, the net addition to the feed 
grain supply would be something less than the total production from 
these shifted eastern corn-belt acres because land in other regions of 
the country better adapted to wheat than feed grains would be shifted 
from sorghum, barley, and oats to wheat. 



6,50012-5969630 






UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA