Relation of wheat acreage and production to wheat, corn, oat, and soybean prices in Illinois

UNIVERSITY OF

ILLINOIS LIBRARY

AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN

BAfi*

A

f

Relation of

WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION
To Wheat Corn, Oat, and Soybean Prices

In Illinois

By C. P. Schumaier

AGRICULTURE LIBRARY

SEP 2 6 1990

Bulletin 648 UNIVERSITY OF !L!.SNC|-

University of Illinois • Agricultural Experiment Station

CONTENTS

Scope of the Study and Method of Analysis 3

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage 4

Price and Revenue Ratios Between Wheat and

Competing Crops 7

Relation of Wheat Production and Acreage to

Price and Revenue Ratios 11

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage, by Districts 11

Summary 17

Conclusions. . , . 19

Urbana, Illinois December, 1959

Publications in the Bulletin series report the results of investigations made

or sponsored by the Experiment Station

Relation of Wheat Acreage and Production
to Wheat, Corn, Oat and Soybean Prices in Illinois

By C. P. SCHUMAIER, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics

THE AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES of Illinois can be devoted to a variety
of uses because of the state's rich soil, long growing season, and
abundant, reliable rainfall. Illinois farmers may vary their crop-
production patterns considerably among wheat, other small grains,
corn and sorghum, and oilseed crops in response to economic incentives.
Farmers in Illinois may operate on the economic principle of compara-
tive advantage. Few groups of farmers are so fortunate. Farmers on
the cold and dry margins must grow crops with the least disadvantage
compared with richer agricultural regions.

Although Illinois farmers as a whole are fortunately endowed, the
most productive land and the most favorable climatic conditions are in
central and east-central Illinois. Southern Illinois land is much less
fertile, yields are more variable, and alternatives more restricted than
in central Illinois. Also, the state is some 400 miles long from north
to south. Spring oats, for example, do well only from the central part
of the state north, and winter oats are a dependable crop only in the
extreme southern part of the state.

Because of the nature of agricultural resources in Illinois, experi-
ence in the state should provide a good test of two hypotheses with
respect to wheat production: (1) wheat acreage and production de-
cline in Illinois when prices are unfavorable and increase when prices
are favorable compared with prices of competing crops, and (2) wheat-
production adjustments related to price are greater in central Illinois,
where there are more good alternatives, than in southern Illinois, where
alternatives are more restricted.

Scope of the Study and Method of Analysis

This report analyzes production and acreage of wheat in Illinois
in relation to the price-per-bushel and revenue-per-acre ratios between
wheat and corn, oats, and soybeans during the years 1927-1958. As
used in this study, the term "wheat" refers to winter wheat. A small
amount of spring wheat was produced in the early years but the
amount is now so negligible that spring wheat is no longer reported
separately.

Consideration of revenue-per-acre ratios is particularly important

4 BULLETIN No. 648 [December,

for this study because of the changes in yields due to technological
advances during the period studied. For example, if during a given
period of time corn had the same price-per-bushel ratios but increasing
average yields relative to competing wheat, oats, and soybeans, then
corn would earn more revenue per acre than the other crops and
become relatively more profitable.

Data for this study were taken from reports of the Illinois Co-
operative Crop Reporting Service for the years 1927 through 1958
and from annual issues of Agricultural Statistics, published by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1929 through 1958. Percentages and
averages were the only measures used to test the hypotheses.

Three periods were selected for comparison: 1929-1938, 1942-
1947, and 1952-1957. They represent, respectively, the prewar aver-
age, the situation during and immediately following World War II,
and the postwar average. The periods are referred to in the text as
prewar, war, and postwar, to make the reading easier.

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage

Production. During the prewar period (1929-1938) Illinois pro-
duced an average of 36 million bushels of wheat annually (Table 1).
The record year during this period was 1931 with 48.9 million bushels.

Production began to fall in 1938 and was down to 12.8 million
bushels in 1942. Production during the war period (1942-1947) aver-
aged only 21 million bushels annually, 42 percent less than the prewar
average.

In 1947 production began to increase rapidly and reached a record
high of almost 61 million bushels in 1956. Average annual production
during the postwar period (1952-1957) was almost 50 million bushels,
more than double the production during the war period and 38 per-
cent more than the average of the prewar period.

Illinois ranked ninth among states in total wheat production in the
1947-1956 decade. In the 1941-1950 decade, Illinois had ranked
thirteenth.

Illinois' percentage share of total United States wheat production
ranged from 3.4 to 6.9 and averaged 4.8 percent in the prewar period
(Table 1). The decline in Illinois wheat production after 1937 was
accompanied by a decline in the state's percentage share of total U.S.
production; in 1942 Illinois' percentage share fell to less than one-third
of the prewar average. Illinois produced between 1.3 and 2.3 percent
and an average of 2.0 percent of U.S. wheat during the six-year war
period.

1959]

RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION

Beginning in 1948 the uptrend in Illinois wheat production raised
Illinois' percentage share of total production to a postwar high of
6.1 percent in 1956. For the six-year postwar period, Illinois produced
4.7 percent of the nation's wheat, a slightly smaller share than the 4.8
percent of the prewar period, although total Illinois production aver-
aged 38 percent more than in the prewar period.

Table 1. — Illinois and United States Wheat Production and Illinois
Production as a Percent of Total United States Production, 1927-1958

Year

Illinois

United
States

Relation of
Illinois produc-
tion to U. S.

production

million

bushels

percent

1927..

31.0

875.1

3.5

1928

19.5

914.4

2.1

1929....

30.8

824.2

3.7

1930

36.9

886.5

4.2

1931

48.9

941.5

5.2

1932

26.0

756.3

3.4

1933

30.7

552.2

5.6

1934..

36.5

526.1

6.9

1935

30.1

628.2

4.8

1936

36.4

629.9

5.8

1937

44.9

873.9

5.1

1938

40.9

919.9

4.4

1939..

39.8

741.2

5.4

1940

39.3

814.6

4.8

1941

34.3

942.0

3.6

1942

12.8

969.4

1.3

1943

17.0

843.8

2.0

1944..

24.3

1,060.1

2.3

1945

24 . 8

1,107.6

2.2

1946

19.4

1,152.1

1.7

1947

28.3

1,358.9

2.1

1948

38.5

1,294.9

3.0

1949..

44.0

1,098.4

4.0

1950

27.6

1,019.4

2.5

1951

33.4

988.2

3.4

1952

42.4

1,306.4

3.2

1953

59.4

1,173.1

5.1

1954..

47.8

983.9

4.9

1955

52.0

934.7

5.6

1956

60.9

1,004.3

6.1

1957

36.5

950.7

3.8

1958

54.2

1,462.2

3.7

Average

1929-1938 (prewar)

36.2

753.9

4.8

1942-1947 (war)

21.1

1,082.0

2.0

1952-1957 (postwar)

49.8

1,058.9

4.7

BULLETIN No. 648

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1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 7

Acreage. The total annual acreage in the four principal Illinois
grain crops increased from about 15 million to 18 million acres from
1927 to 1958 (Table 2). Wheat acreage declined from about 2 million
acres in the prewar period to about 1.2 million during the war period
and then increased again to 1.8 million in the postwar period. The
acreage in soybeans increased from less than 200,000 in 1927 to over 5
million in 1958, while oat acreage declined from 4 million to less than
3 million. Corn acreage showed no consistent trend, ranging from a
low of 7.6 million to a high of 9.8 million during the 32-year period.

Corn occupied 50 percent or more of the land in the four crops
from 1927 to 1955 except for two years (Table 2). Since 1955 corn
acreage has been just under half of the total acreage. The percentage
of acres in oats declined steadily from 27 percent in 1927 to only 14
percent in 1958, while the percentage in soybeans increased steadily
from 1 percent in 1927 to 29 percent in 1958. The percentage of acres
in wheat averaged 13 percent in the prewar period, decreased to 7
percent during the war period, and rose during the postwar period to
10 percent.

Price and Revenue Ratios Between Wheat
and Competing Crops

Price-per-bushel ratios. Over the 31-year period 1927-1957 the
price of wheat in Illinois averaged 140.58 percent of the price of corn,
268.81 percent of the price of oats, and 85.84 percent of the price of
soybeans (Tables 3 and 4). Expressed in another way, one bushel of
wheat was worth 1.41 bushels of corn, 2.69 bushels of oats, and 0.86
bushel of soybeans.

One bushel of wheat was worth 1.46 bushels of corn in the prewar
period, 1.29 bushels of corn in the war period, and 1.44 bushels of
corn in the postwar period. In effect wheat prices relative to corn
prices decreased 12 percent from prewar to war and increased 11 per-
cent from war to postwar.

Relative to oat prices, wheat prices decreased 19 percent from
prewar to war and increased 25 percent from war to postwar. One
bushel of wheat was worth 2.78 bushels of oats prewar, 2.25 bushels
war, and 2.98 bushels postwar.

In the postwar period price relationships between wheat and corn
and oats were similar to those of the prewar period. Soybeans, how-

BULLETIN No. 648

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1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 9

ever, show a significant price advantage over wheat in the postwar
compared to the prewar period. One bushel of wheat was worth 0.99
bushel of soybeans prewar but only 0.81 bushel postwar; during the
war one bushel of wheat was worth 0.75 bushel of soybeans. Wheat

Table 4. — Wheat Price per Bushel and Revenue per Acre as Percents

of Corn, Oat, and Soybean Price per Bushel and Revenue

per Acre, Illinois, 1927-1957

Relation of wheat price and revenue to price and revenue of:
v Corn Oats Soybeans

Price Revenue Price Revenue Price Revenue
per bu. per acre per bu. per acre per bu. per acre

percent

1927.. 153 65 283 150 81 84

1928 149 61 313 129 76 71

1929.. 147 60 287 207 70 59

1930 139 94 250 239 64 67

1931 160 102 235 163 114 149

1932 156 56 323 133 89 69

1933 170 104 266 219 120 132

1934.. 108 89 198 269 99 92

1935 131 49 336 171 124 97

1936 97 72 255 157 86 95

1937 219 80 368 140 129 113

1938 136 57 265 151 95 75

1939.. 135 54 233 155 91 76

1940 116 61 237 111 84 107

1941 136 52 246 115 66 61

1942 131 32 241 80 74 46

1943 140 46 203 101 82 65

1944.. 141 61 208 128 73 66

1945 129 51 233 96 75 69

1946 131 37 248 94 79 53

1947 103 55 216 133 68 79

1948 165 61 294 147 91 86

1949.. 146 62 284 158 83 75

1950 129 49 256 122 82 67

1951 128 44 266 126 79 59

1952 137 54 274 170 75 72

1953 128 66 269 204 68 93

1954.. 143 85 303 222 82 114

1955 138 82 335 197 83 120

1956 147 81 287 229 86 113

1957 170 56 321 173 92 76

Average

1927-1957 140.58 63.81 268.81 157.71 85.84 83.87

1929-1938 146.30 76.30 278.30 184.90 99.00 94.80

1942-1947 129.17 47.00 224.83 105.33 75.17 63.00

1952-1957.. 143.83 70.67 298.17 199.17 81.00 98.00

10 BULLETIN No. 648 [December,

prices relative to soybean prices decreased 24 percent from prewar to
war and increased only 7 percent from war to postwar.

Revenue-per-acre ratios. Revenue per acre is dependent upon both
price and yield. Hybrid corn was introduced in the 1930's and yields
have increased rapidly since then (Table 3). From the prewar to the
war period average yields of corn increased 41 percent, while oat yields
increased 34 percent and soybean yields, 13 percent. Wheat yields were
practically the same in both periods.

Wheat yields increased rapidly after World War II. From the war
to the postwar period wheat yields increased 66 percent, almost as
much as the 70-percent gain that corn yields showed from the prewar
to the postwar period. Oat and soybean yields increased from war to
postwar, but at a slower rate than corn and wheat.

Wheat revenue per acre averaged about three- fourths (76.30 per-
cent) that of corn in the prewar period and slightly less than three-
fourths (70.67 percent) in the postwar period (Table 4). During the
war period wheat returned less than half (47 percent) as much revenue
per acre as corn.

Oat prices were particularly favorable during the war period and
yields increased relative to wheat. As a result, wheat revenue per acre,
which had been almost double (184.90 percent) that of oats in the
prewar period, fell below oat revenue in three of the six war years
(Table 3). For the six-year war period, wheat averaged only a little
more revenue per acre (105.33 percent) than oats. In the postwar
period wheat revenue per acre was double (199.17 percent) that of oats.

Wheat revenue per acre averaged just a little less than that of soy-
beans in both the prewar (94.80 percent) and postwar (98 percent)
periods. However, during the war period wheat averaged only 63 per-
cent as much revenue per acre as soybeans.

These price and revenue relationships show that wheat was at a
considerable disadvantage compared with corn, oats, and soybeans
during the war period. There are two reasons: (1) wheat prices in-
creased less than the other crop prices during the war period, and
(2) wheat yields increased less from the prewar through the war period
than those of the other grains.

In the postwar period price relationships returned to more nearly
the prewar pattern and wheat yields increased rapidly. This reversal
of the war-period price and yield trends resulted in wheat revenue per
acre in the postwar period that was higher in relation to oats and soy-
beans than in the prewar period. The postwar wheat revenue per acre
was almost as high in relation to corn as in the prewar period.

1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 11

Relation of Wheat Production and Acreage
to Price and Revenue Ratios

Wheat acreage and production clearly show an association with
wheat's unfavorable revenue-per-acre relationships to other crops dur-
ing the war period and with the improvement (with respect to wheat)
in revenue ratios in the postwar period.

From the prewar to the war period, the revenue-per-acre ratio of
wheat to corn decreased 38 percent, that of wheat to oats decreased 43
percent, and that of wheat to soybeans decreased 33 percent. In the
same period, wheat production decreased 42 percent and acreage de-
creased 41 percent.

From the war to the postwar period the revenue-per-acre ratios
increased in favor of wheat by 50 percent relative to corn, by 89 per-
cent relative to oats, and by 56 percent relative to soybeans. Wheat
production from war to postwar increased by 136 percent and acreage
increased by 48 percent.

Thus the necessary conditions to establish the validity of the first
hypothesis are met. The decline in war-period wheat acreage and
production was associated with declining price and revenue ratios for
wheat compared with competing crops. The return to approximately
prewar price and revenue relationships in the postwar period was
associated with greatly increased wheat acreage and production.

Illinois Wheat Production and Acreage, by Districts

Production and acreage distribution. Tables 5 and 6 show the dis-
tribution of wheat acreage and production among crop-reporting dis-
tricts in Illinois (Fig. 1). Three districts appear to have long-time
trends. The northwest and central districts have a downward trend in
their percentage shares of total wheat acreage and production. The
east southeast district has an upward trend.

During the war period (1942-1947), when total wheat acreage in
the state declined from the prewar average, the west, central, east, and
west southwest percentage shares of total acreage and production de-
clined, while the east southeast, southwest, and southeast percentage
shares increased. The northwest and northeast shares are negligible
and showed little change.

From the war to the postwar (1952-1957) period, the west and east
increased their percentage shares of total wheat acreage and produc-
tion, while the southwest and southeast shares declined. The war-
period decline in the central area appears to have stopped, although no

12

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RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION

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BULLETIN No. 648

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7959]

RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION

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16

BULLETIN No. 648

[December,

Illinois crop - reporting
districts. (Fig. 1)

increase is shown. The east southeast district continued to increase its
percentage share of total acreage and production. The west southwest
district does not show much change from the war period. This district
averaged about 25 percent of Illinois' wheat acreage and production in
both war and postwar periods.

Land productivity. Crop yields in the years 1957 and 1958 were
fairly typical in Illinois. The yields of the nine crop-reporting districts
for these two years give a rough index of the productivity of the land
(Table 7). The five northern and central districts have the highest
overall average yields and the two southern areas the lowest. The
west southwest and east southeast districts are intermediate.

The northern and central districts usually have higher average
yields for all four crops than the southern areas, but their advantage
is relatively less for wheat and soybeans than for corn and oats. Not
only do the southern areas have less fertility than the northern and
central areas, but they also have less level land and more need to grow
wheat in their rotations as a nurse crop for legumes. For these
comparative-advantage and farm-management reasons, farmers in the

1959] RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION 17

Table 7. — Crop Yields, by Districts, Illinois, 1957 and 1958

District

Corn

Oats

Wheat

Soybeans

1957

1958

1957

1958

1957

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1957

1958

Northwest

75

74
70
76
77
70
72
59
48
47

69.0

51
47
38
32
26
26
24
23
25

39.0

bushels per acre
59 28
60 27
54 27
55 25
54 25
47 19
41 20
29 18
24 20

55.0 21.0

37
41
34
36
39
35
29
25
21

31.5

30
29
26
30
29
25
22
20
19

25.5

28
28
29
30
28
30
25
26
25

28.0

Northeast ,

, .. 68

West

,.. 65

Central ,

, .. 72

East

. .. 68

West southwest

. .. 58

East southeast

. .. 49

Southwest ,

, .. 41

Southeast

. . 44

State

... 64.0

southern districts tend to have less flexibility than farmers in the
northern and central districts in choice of crop-rotation patterns and
proportions.

Relation of production and acreage changes to productivity. The

second hypothesis proposed at the beginning of the study stated that
any changes in wheat production within Illinois related to changes in
price-per-bushel or revenue-per-acre relationships between wheat and
other grains should be greater in central Illinois, where there are more
alternative uses for resources, than in southern Illinois.

The data on acreage and production changes within Illinois (Tables
5 and 6) support this hypothesis rather conclusively. Changing price
and revenue relationships (analyzed on pages 7 to 11) were accom-
panied by considerable increases and decreases in production in the
rich central part of the state — the west, central, and east districts —
and by much smaller changes in the southwest and southeast districts,
the poorest section of the state.

Summary

The purpose of this study was to test two economic hypotheses
with respect to wheat production in Illinois: (1) wheat acreage and
production decline when prices are unfavorable and increase when
prices are favorable compared with competing crops, and (2) wheat-
production adjustments related to price are greater in central Illinois,
where there are more good alternatives, than in southern Illinois, where
alternatives are more restricted.

18 BULLETIN No. 648 [December,

Records on production, acreage, and price of wheat, corn, oats,
and soybeans for the 32-year period 1927 through 1958 were analyzed
to determine the relation of wheat production and acreage to the price-
per-bushel and revenue-per-acre ratios between wheat and the three
other crops. Three periods were selected for comparison: prewar
(1929-1938), war (1942-1947), and postwar (1952-1957).

Production of wheat decreased 42 percent from the prewar to the
war period and increased 136 percent from the war to the postwar
period. In the same periods, wheat acreage decreased 41 percent and
then increased 48 percent.

From the prewar to the war period, the price of wheat decreased
12 percent relative to corn, 19 percent relative to oats, and 24 percent
relative to soybeans. After the war price relationships returned to
more nearly the prewar pattern; from the war to the postwar period,
the price of wheat increased 11 percent relative to corn, 25 percent
relative to oats, and 7 percent relative to soybeans.

Revenue per acre depends on both price and yield. Wheat was at
a disadvantage compared with competing crops during the war because
both wheat prices and wheat yields increased less from prewar to war
than those of other grains. From prewar to war, wheat revenue per
acre decreased 38 percent relative to corn, 43 percent relative to oats,
and 33 percent relative to soybeans. In the postwar period wheat yields
increased rapidly. Coupled with the relative increase in the price of
wheat, this resulted in an increase in the revenue per acre of wheat
compared with competing crops; from the war to the postwar period
wheat revenue per acre increased 50 percent relative to corn, 89 per-
cent relative to oats, and 56 percent relative to soybeans.

Thus the necessary conditions to establish the validity of the first
hypothesis are met. The decline in war-period wheat acreage and
production was associated with declining price and revenue ratios
for wheat compared with competing crops, and the return to approxi-
mately prewar price and revenue relationships in the postwar period
was associated with greatly increased wheat acreage and production.

Among crop-reporting districts in Illinois, the state's decline in
wheat production and acreage from the prewar to the war period was
most evident in the rich central part of the state — the west, central,
and east districts. In these districts, percentage shares of total wheat
production and acreage decreased while in the less productive areas
of the state percentage shares increased. From the war to the postwar
period, when total production and acreage in the state increased, the
percentage of wheat production and acreage in the three central dis-
tricts either increased or remained constant; in the poorest section of

1959]

RELATION OF PRICES TO WHEAT ACREAGE AND PRODUCTION

the state — the southwest and southeast districts — the percentage
shares declined.

Thus the evidence supports the validity of the second hypothesis.
Wheat production changes within Illinois related to changing price-
per-bushel and revenue-per-acre relationships between wheat and
competing grains were greater in central Illinois, where there are
more alternative uses for resources, than in southern Illinois.

It is particularly interesting that in spite of the technological
changes during the long period studied, the types of changes one would
predict on the basis of economic theory did in fact occur. The relative
changes were in the direction theory indicates they should be.

Conclusions

The Illinois experience should be roughly representative of wheat
production patterns in other eastern corn-belt states and the factors
influencing price and production could be expected to be the same.
Table 8 gives the winter wheat acreage and production for Michigan.
Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri. No detailed analysis was attempted, but
inspection shows that all these states had a wartime decline from their
1930's level and that the Indiana and Missouri patterns closely follow
that of Illinois (Table 1). The patterns of Michigan, which is not truly
a corn-belt state, and Ohio differ somewhat from those of Indiana,

Table 8. — Winter Wheat Acreage and Production, Selected States,
1929-1938 Average and 1938-1957 Annually"

Indiana

Michigan Missouri

Ohio

Year 1,000
acres

1.000
bu.

1,000

acres

1 ,000 1 ,000

bu. acres

1,000
bu.

1,000
acres

1.000
bu.

1929-1938

,743
,803
,534
,433
,476
,123

955
,325
,555
,366
,571
,775

,740
,533
,426
,540
,648

,318
,186
,186
,281

30,321
28,848
27,612
27,934
34,665
14,052

15,274
26,488
34 ,980
29,369
36,133
38,162

39,150
32,193
23,529
36,960
46,144

40,199
34,394
36,173
32,666

834
913
739
779
741
681

660
987
982
864
1,192
1,395

1,297
1,141
1,232
1,429
1,515

948
948
1,043
991

16,742
19,519
15,784
18,290
16,286
15,322

11,196
23,670
27,005
22,896
29,800
36,270

35,019
29,666
30,800
36,440
44,692

29,870
27,966
31 ,290
28,739

,865
,432
,845
,713
,336
695

973
,294
,304
,213
,321
,785

,946
,359
,318
,252
,578

,373
,551
,660
,643

25,561
31,600
30,424
32,547
18,036
9,035

12,649
21,998
18,256
18,195
24,438
39,270

35,028
23,782
22,406
27,544
41 ,028

41 ,190
48,081
50,630
37,789

2,004
2,381
1,906
1,959
1,959
1,724

1,603
2,035
2,129
1 ,831
2,179
2,353

2,353
2,118
1,906
2,249
2,384

1,740
1,496
1,526
1 ,495

40,211
46,420
37,150
42,121
48,978
36,205

26,449
46,805
57,483
48,522
49,028
57,648

60,002
46,596
34,308
55,100
69,136

46,980
43,384
39,676
32,890

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1 946 .

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957...

Source: Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

20 BULLETIN No. 648

Illinois, and Missouri, and a detailed analysis beyond the scope of this
study would be necessary to determine the reasons.

Wheat production in the eastern corn belt appears to be closely
related to changes in wheat price and revenue relationships to compet-
ing crops. Although a period in which both price and technological
changes combine to reduce wheat production may not occur again,
lower wheat price supports relative to those of corn, oats, and soybeans,
or an increase in demand (and hence, price) for competing crops rela-
tive to wheat could be expected to reduce the incentive to produce wheat
and to reduce wheat acreage and production in the region.

The results of this study indicate that lower wheat price supports
and abolition of acreage controls would cause a shift of wheat pro-
duction from the eastern corn belt to other regions of the country.
This shift would at least partially compensate wheat producers in other
regions for the loss of income due to lower wheat prices.

The land shifted from wheat in Illinois and other eastern corn -belt
states would go into feed grains. However, the net addition to the feed
grain supply would be something less than the total production from
these shifted eastern corn-belt acres because land in other regions of
the country better adapted to wheat than feed grains would be shifted
from sorghum, barley, and oats to wheat.

6,500—12-59—69630

UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA