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Full text of "Report of the National survey of potential product capacity"

REPORT 
OF THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF 
POTENTIAL PRODUCT CAPACITY 



POSSIBLE . POSSIBLE 

PI^ODUCTION ^ CONSUMPTION 

( PLANT CAPACITY ) ( BUDGET OF NEED ) 

MEASURED IN TERMS OF 

ACCOMPLISHED PRODUCTION 1929 

( EFFECTIVELY DEMANDED £r SUPPLIED ) 



C O L-6 

NATIONAL 



COL-7 

INCOME 



PRODUCED BUT NOT CONSUMED 






^l^.'!Vn"°'' Oft THE SUM OF 

CONSUMER GOODS £^ SERVICES MONETARY AND 

PftOOUCEOJN 1929 CAT RETAH PRICES) IMPUTED INCOMS 

FOR 1929 



rOrALCONSUMPTION-1929 
LE55 ABOVE DEDUCTIONS 

*95,9l7,d94 



o 



to 

z 
o 



< 

u 



rLvJfl Dnbt I : showing the transformation 
OF Raw Materials into Goods and Services 
IN TERMS of 1929 Dollar Values . 

[$,OO0 OMITTED FROM ALL FIGURES ] 




As the Line of Desired Possible Production swinqs to the Left 
of the Vertical Reference Line of Accomplished Production 
it denotes Actual Production in Excess of Domestic Budqet Needs 

As it swinqs to the Riqht it denotes Desired Production . unaccomfjlish 
althouqh fallinq within the Limits of Present Plant Ca|3acitij 
or Possible Production. 



COL-5 



COL • 4 

GOODS IN PROCESS 





CONSTBUCTION AND 
HEAVY MACHINERV 




BUILDINGS , 
7,061,000 


;Ss:!§ 






















- 






















CONSTR'N J 
J,9/3,0I7 














~ 


^' 


' 




f.>l""'"'„ I'MB 








Ht 










HOUSING f""" '■""'°° 
CONSTR<»'">io».» '•!*" 



A^o < 



COL • 4 



SOOPS IN PROCESS 

AORic.kFooD SUP. J sE^SlitsllV- 
1,014,842 I y^ffls'-;|;';£;'- 

WEARING s:".!r. !«l«s= 

APPAREL SUP. 
3,256.968 



COL-3 



GOODS IN PROCESS 



F00D5 ETC. 
4,270,241 



YARNS (.FABRICS 
2,875,226 



COLl 

RAW MATEBIALS 



FOREST PRODUCn 
2, 589,920 < 



C OL 2 

eOODS IN PR OCESS 



YARNSfFABRICS jaST^a \i 

5,254.956 1 ;t;°AS??;a losiUK 

RUB3ERRAW U;» aS.tJJ , '! j^ 

240,966 I 




S>' 






™.. „..., Ur-' t-=i4-J 



rrr-l — I 



OT^f^Jiy^ 'li 



Z 1|ll!; 



MINERALS hg; 






m 






I IMPORISJ 
H22 l,9?2,TO8 j.„^ 



FUELS I 
5,078,050] 



MEATS (FISH J SS ''"uli MINERALS I =""..»<"«"H>S>~ , !i tT 

5,271.512 IS" }"».'■>, Ill '."6.606'|3M''3f ;,s-r\;#t 

— u^ CHEMICALS ^fC;.;i§ 

I I 1,559,005 1 "'""" '•"""■ 



MILK 
31462,252 



VEGETABLES 
1,869,5)5 



! TRANSPTION J „..„,„„, , 
-j 2,295,000 Ib-ScS"." 



CHEMICALS ("'■!» "'J 
1,505,108 1 Straa } '":»'1 
TRANSPCOSTS Jt„.s.co»s,,„„„„ 

1,225,000 ' 

TOTAL 




106,505 ■ 
■i™ 1 53,729 
EDUCATION 
918,565 ' 
CIVIL 1^2,455 . 
MINING 71,700 
DUStOFF-SUPP- , 
2,064,764 







1 10 EGGS ■""'■"" '•' '<? . 'w , 

I 775,118 }. ? ' '. . .' 

y MISC 612,996 { ?;s'g" 'Ms; j 

|„ FORAGE ' ' 

" * 1,472,599 

FIBRES 
1.555,861 



'fvn 



n* FORESTRY /^SSuT 
y 881,058 \ '''°°"" 



P FUELS 



2 960 170 iSIHTwSi I HOUSING rai.r, 05., '»^ 

MINERALS I :";;ssu?^ '.",'£ 
'.191,945 i ^'Ba......mii 

transpVion (["iT-iTif,"!."" 



^^^^ j___ I L 



"?K : 







cANJbtllERS GOODS 



sS&Mi^ 










apparel , }i"«R> "jiii 
796,554 <-|ffiaSl4||| 

H ou s I N Ci J Sffia&iuSf 

TRANSPTION r Sr"*t, " ■ " '^ 
1^55,000 I """"^'^ 




CONSUMEB.S SOPPS 




19,868 837 Nc=l->- 








sriijan iuss 




^ 


:^ 








x 






1 




CONSTR'N , 


I[l .T[, tiopOO 


jT 




5,975,017 


zEk^' 


'T 


"- 


1- 














5fp;s"H||t 




-^ 


T^^ 


= Z]> 




1 


_ 


A— 


-=» 












4,956.585 ^ 




1 




r """ 














,™"i"m'""7;s!^ 











6OOPS AT WHOLESALE 





dl 




PERSONAL 
6,905,060 



mi__ recreat'n , 

^ 6,218,590 ^ 




HEALTH 
5,256,799 






-fue: 



iS,i;H;i 



iHs:: fjis 



TAXES ;.'SRS!,V£',o,«» 



jJl 



REa*™ 928.741 
HEALTH 485,973 ^J 



50 100 150 200 



50 100 ISO 200 



41,517480 »«n 



405.696 <'iS?s;^*;??ii " 



IMPUTED 
INCOME 
8 580,000 



OTHER 

SOURCES 

OF BUYING 

POWER 

2 800,000 



ALL PROPERTY 
INCOME ; 

1 2,2061000 1 



ALL ENTREPRENEURIAL 
INCOME I 

16,156,000 



FOOD GROWN kEATEN \ 
ON FARMS 1,719,000 , 



RENT ON ■ 

OWNED HOUSES 
t FARMS 6,861,000 



INSTITUTIONAL CON- i 
SUMPTION 1,800,000 ] 



50 100 150 200 



9ei552;894 



SO 100 ISO 200 



HORIZONTAL SCALE 



I N 



PERCENTAGES OF 1929 PRODUCTION 



TOTAL 
DESIRED POSSIBlt 

PRODUCTION 
♦155,516,000 



■lONAL SURVEY OF POTENTIAL PRODUCT CAPACITY ■ HAROLD LOEB • DIBECTOB 




SI 



From the collection of the 



^ m 

Pre^nger 

V I J-i"h-PQ 



ibrary 



San Francisco, California 
2008 



REPORT 

OF THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF 
POTENTIAL PRODUCT CAPACITY 



REPORT 
OF THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF 
POTENTIAL PRODUCT CAPACITY 



PREPARED UNDER THE SPONSORSHIP OF 
THE NEW YORK CITY HOUSING AUTHORITY 

AND 

WORKS DIVISION OF 

THE EMERGENCY RELIEF BUREAU 

CITY OF NEW YORK 



William Hodson, Chairman, Emergency Relief Bureau 
Langdon W. Post, Chairman, New York City Housing Authority 

1935 



THIS BOOK ENTIRELY MANUFACTURED BY UNION LABOR 




COPYRIGHT 1935 BY 

NEW YORK CITY HOUSING AUTHORITY 

PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

Besides the technicians to whom Chapters are credited on 
the Contents page, acknowledgment must be made to other 
members of the staff whose contributions were equally essen- 
tial to the completion of the project, as follows: 

Charles Burkett and Maurice G. Kains, Agriculture; Vic- 
tor Dorkovich, Minerals and Metal Products ; Joseph Albin, 
Fuels and Energy; Robert L. Holliday, The Chemical Indus- 
try; A. F. Bell, Manufacturing; Herbert Powell and Charles 
J. Shillinger, Textiles; Robert A. Schroeder, Edgar Cham- 
bless, and Frederick S. Keeler, Construction; and William 
Hayett, Education. 

Acknowledgment should also be made to Robert R. Doane 
for his assistance in indicating sources of information; to 
Joseph Lieberman for his preparation of the statistical 
tables; to Elwood Glassford, office manager; to Montgom- 
ery Schuyler for editing the manuscripts; and to the em- 
ployees of the Works Division of the Emergency Relief 
Bureau who were assigned to assist us, and who, by their 
untiring effort, demonstrated the practicability of the eco- 
nomic solution our figures may suggest. 

The final graphic presentation of the Chart on the Flow- 
Sheet was executed by Arthur Holden, Director of the Land 
Utilization Committee for the New York Building Congress, 
and the group of technicians associated with him. 

Harold Loeb 

Director 



TABLE OF CONTENTS 



FOREWORD 


Chapter 


Harold Loeb 


Page 
xi 


THE FLOW-SHEET 


1 


Harold Loeb and 
Felix J. Frazer 


3 


AGRICULTURE 


II 


William B. Smith 


15 


FOREST PRODUCTS 


III 


Graham L. Montgomery 


45 


MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 


IV 


Pomeroy C. Merrill 


52 


FUELS AND ENERGY 


V 


Walter N. Polakov 


64 


THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 


VI 


Graham L. Montgomery 
and Felix J. Frazer 


93 


MANUFACTURING 


VII 


Graham L. Montgomery 


98 


TEXTILES AND CLOTHING 


VIII 


James L. Hollings 
and Charles Steele 


108 


FOOD PROCESSING 


IX 


Graham L. Montgomery 


118 


CONSTRUCTION 


X 


Harold Loeb 


127 


PRINTING AND PUBLISHING 


XI 


Felix J. Frazer 


144 


TRANSPORTATION 


XII 


Douglas L. Cullison 


149 


HEALTH 


XIII 


Walter N. Polakov 


160 


EDUCATION 


XIV 


Goodwin Watson 


170 


RECREATION 


XV 


Harold Loeb 


182 


FOREIGN TRADE 


XVI 


William B. Smith 


193 


LABOR 


XVII 


William B. Smith 


199 


SUMMARY 


XVIII 


Felix J. Frazer 


207 


CONCLUSION 


XIX 


Harold Loeb 


235 


APPENDIX 






248 



CONTENTS OF APPENDIX 

Pag* 

Note on abbreviations used. 248 

Table I Columns 1 ^ 2, 3, 4^ 5^ and 6, supplementary table 

to Column 6. 249 

il Allocation table. Column 4. 280 

III Allocation table, Column 5. 300 

IV Per-Capita income (deflated), 1860 to 1932. 308 

V Dollar wages per employed worker, and dollar 

value of products per worker in the manufacturing 
industries and per-capita income, 1 869 to 1 932. 31 

Va Net value of products, and production per worker 

in the manufacturing industries, 1899 to 1931. 311 

VI Workers gainfully engaged and average wages, 

1929. 312 

VII Entrepreneurs engaged and average withdrawals, 

1929. 313 

VIII Construction — materials produced (1929) and 
materials required for building 1,550,000 
dwelling units per year, and materials required 
to maintain existing homes (equivalent to 
materials required to build 200,000 dwelling 
units), per year. 314 

IX Construction — labor required for the construction 

outlined in Table VIII. 315 

X Breakdown of population (basis of wearing- 
apparel budget). 316 

XI Breakdown of garment requirements. 31 7 



CONTENTS OF APPENDIX 



Page 



Table XII Production, capacity, and budget of garments, 

by sex. 318 

XIV Annual cost of clothing of the two groups and 

expenditures per person and per family. 319 

Footnotes to Tables X, XI, XII, and XIV. 316 

XV Textile furnishings for 750,000 six-room houses. 320 

XVI Textile furnishings for 800,000 dwelling units. 322 

XVII Textile materials — budgeted quantities of all house 

furnishings. 323 

XVIII Percentage of retail price to manufacturers' values. 324 

XIX Imports of consumer goods, 1929, (not included 

until Column 6). 326 

XX Exports of consumer goods, 1929, (not deducted 

until Column 6). 326 

XXI Reports and their sources. 327 

XXII Capacity definitions. 334 

XXIIa Worksheets and their sources (not included in 

Table XXI). 343 

XXIII Breakdown of labor, by industries. 348 

XXIV Sources and bibliography. 353 



FOREWORD 

Interest in capacity operation is of comparatively recent 
growth. It used to be assumed that as a general rule some- 
thing near full production was maintained except in the case 
of real glut. ("Real glut" is used here to describe a condition 
in which supplies are in excess of the consumption desires of 
the population.) This assumption is based. on the central pos- 
tulate of the "open-market" system, wherein the so-called 
law of supply and demand is presumed to operate. When the 
"effective demand" is unable to remove goods from the mar- 
ket, prices are supposed to be dropped until the effective de- 
mand can and does remove the goods for sale. In other words, 
the automatic operation of the open market is supposed to 
maintain an equilibrium between goods for sale and buying 
power. 

According to this theory, technological improvements and 
other economies are inevitably reflected in lower prices, 
higher wages, or greater profits, and thus the total buying 
power of the people is at all times adequate to command the 
goods and services which better productive methods have 
put at their disposal. 

Events, however, have cast doubt on the theory. Techno- 
logical improvements have effected great economies in all 
branches of productive endeavor. These economies result in 
a disemployment of labor. 

The classical theory assumes that a reduction in net buying 
power will be avoided by a drop in prices, a rise in individual 
wages, or an increase in profits, or by a combination of two 
or of all three. 

In the aggregate, prices have not fallen to any appreciable 
extent in the past one hundred years — the price level is higher 
now than it was at times during the last century. Individual 



Xll FOREWORD 

wages have not risen sufficiently to make up for the reduced 
number of workers, while profits, instead of increasing, 
tended to disappear after 1929 and have been maintained, 
artificially, on a reduced scale, since 1932. 

It may be that this arrest of what is often assumed to be a 
"natural law" is due to the general practice of maintaining 
prices by restricting production. The very act of restricting 
production, even when financial considerations compel the re- 
striction, precludes in many cases the possibility of profit. 
Fixed charges being what they are, any restriction on pro- 
duction must necessarily increase unit costs and thereby 
reduce unit profits. Thus technological improvements seem 
often, due to the disemployment of labor, to result in a 
reduced net buying power, a reduction which is not made up 
by lower prices, higher individual wages, or greater profits. 

No matter how we interpret the phenomenon, the fact re- 
mains that there is a huge discrepancy between monetary in- 
come (token wealth) and the value at current prices of the 
goods and services which, in the light of our needs and de- 
sires, and taking into consideration our product capacity, 
might be produced. Despite the unsatisfied needs of a large 
part of our population, our productive plant, excepting only 
agriculture, has been operated during the last five years at a 
fraction of the rate at which it operated in 1929. Even in that 
year of maximum production, many needs were far from sat- 
isfied and yet the national plant was then running only on a 
part-time basis. 

Today some twenty-three million people are on relief,^ 
yet factories and men are idle while they could be turning out 
needed supplies. It is because of the discrepancy between 
what we actually do produce and what we potentially could 
produce — between "effective demand," which is expressed in 
token wealth (or monetary terms), and our needs and de- 

^N. Y. Times, Feb. 17, 1935. 



FOREWORD XIU 

sires which can be satisfied only by real income (goods and 
services) — it is because of these discrepancies that excess, or 
unused, product capacity has become of such vital concern. 
Obviously, a knowledge of what could be done is important. 
In fact, such a knowledge is an essential preliminary step in 
any inquiry which seeks to discover why it is not done. 

Purpose of the Survey. The National Survey of Poten- 
tial Product Capacity was set up by the Federal Government 
solely to secure this information. Many guesses regarding 
our product capacity have been hazarded. The task of the 
Survey has been to assemble existing data, then to codify and 
collate it, and finally to interpret it. 

The staff of the Survey (sixty-four individuals, at the peak 
of our work) was selected from engineers, technical men, 
and statisticians whose experience covered the full range of 
our national economy. The sources of their information are 
given in our bibliography, which lists over two hundred and 
fifty documents, including the Federal Census and trade re- 
ports of various industries. Many questionnaires were sent 
to various trade associations, plant executives, etc. We even 
covered some previously ignored fields, such as wild-game 
resources, in order to make as complete a picture as possible. 
Authorities in nearly all lines of production have been inter- 
viewed and our estimates were checked against their knowl- 
edge. 

Capacity is frequently hard to determine. For example, 
the design of a fan might change the rated capacity of a blast 
furnace. Again, a redistribution between railroads and motor 
trucks of long-haul and short-haul freight — assigning the 
former to long hauls and the latter to short hauls — would 
greatly affect the rated capacity of both agencies. 

But even when a satisfactory understanding of capacity 
has been reached, by which a given plant of industry could be 
rated, this capacity cannot be considered separately from the 



xiv FOREWORD 

rest of the economy. Our national productive machine Is an 
articulated mechanism. The functioning of one part largely 
determines the functioning of other parts. Increasing or de- 
creasing the output of one industry must inevitably increase 
or decrease the output of sustaining or dependent industries. 
Again, a large unused capacity in an industry which pro- 
duces only capital goods, such as machinery, building mate- 
rials, locomotives, and similar equipment, has no material 
bearing on our basic inquiry, unless it can be translated into 
consumer satisfactions. For in the existing economic system, 
utilization of at present unused capacity to manufacture ma- 
chine tools can in no way effect an increase in the production 
of ultimate consumer goods unless the additional machine 
tools that might be produced can be put to work. 

Definitions. Among the several points of view from 
which capacity may be considered are: 

A. The capacity of the existing plant with operation gov- 
erned by existing customs and traditions. 

B. The capacity of the existing plant if production were 
limited solely by physical factors and knowledge {i.e., re- 
sources, man-power, and technology) . 

Still another point of view is admissible. It differs essen- 
tially from the two given in that it does not predicate the 
existing plant but substitutes for it a non-existent, yet possi- 
ble, plant — one in which obsolete equipment is largely re- 
placed and modern management methods are installed. The 
word "largely" is introduced because any economic system, 
whether it be that of the traditional open market, or some 
other system influenced in a greater or lesser degree by cen- 
tral regulation and planning, requires a certain amount of 
experimentation. Allowance must be made for the evolution- 
ary process of selecting the best-equipped and the most effi- 
ciently managed plants. Aside from the impossibility of 
exactly determining obsolescence in equipment and manage- 



FOREWORD XV 

ment, a certain amount of it is both unavoidable and indis- 
pensable. Definition C was framed to apply to the sum total 
of all capacities. 

C. The capacity of the nation to produce goods and serv- 
ices if full advantage were taken of existing resources, man- 
power, and knowledge. 

Capacity under this definition is obviously not a definitely 
fixed quantity. Every new invention, every improved method, 
every advance in management technique, will increase the 
final quantitative estimate. A competent study of capacity 
from such a point of view would be a running inventory of 
our approach to perfection rather than a research into exist- 
ing capacity as determined by production. 

Inadequacy of Definition. Definition A is the point 
of view accepted by the most thorough survey of capacity 
previously undertaken, namely, "America's Capacity to Pro- 
duce."^ But such a survey, following definition A, is not, 
strictly speaking, a study of capacity. It is rather an investi- 
gation of the extent of "unused capacity" under the capitalis- 
tic system. Traditional influences, such as "custom" and 
"seasonality," were given an equal footing with considera- 
tions of a purely engineering or managerial nature. In order 
to conform with current business practice, or "custom," the 
capacity of textile mills in the North was estimated on a one- 
shift basis, while mills in the South, turning out a similar 
product, were measured on a multiple-shift basis. Again 
"seasonality of demand," a non-physical factor in most in- 
dustries (except those immediately affected by the weather 
and the seasons, as when fruits and vegetables are being 
processed) was accepted by the Brookings survey as a limita- 
tion on product capacity. 

The Brookings Institution found that an average excess 
industrial capacity of some nineteen per cent existed in 1929 

*The Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C, 1934. 



XVI FOREWORD 

and that a similar excess had existed in prior years. There- 
fore, they concluded that the extent of excess capacity has 
been fairly constant during the past twenty years. But, in 
arriving at this conclusion, they arbitrarily set their so-called 
normal line of production so that it joined to the production 
peaks of the years 1917, 1923, and 1929. These peaks rise 
successively upward. Had they, instead, made their normal 
line join the production troughs of the years 1907, 1921, 
and 1932, it would have shown, over the last decade, a sharp 
downward trend. Just as conclusive and as arbitrary an argu- 
ment could be advanced in favor of considering as "normal" 
the trough line as that joining the peaks. In any case, it is 
debatable, in a scientific study, whether such a line is "nor- 
mal" or merely an indication of a trend. If the curves of 
production and capacity are extended through 1934, the com- 
parison, particularly in the past few years, will clearly indi- 
cate that the percentage of unused capacity, however it may 
be defined, has reached an unprecedented height. 

Reasons for Definitions. An inquiry along the lines of 
A is of value to contemporary business entrepreneurs. It in- 
forms them whether or not the percentage of unused capacity 
in certain industries is greater or less than that prevailing in 
other industries. It gives them also a yardstick against which 
their own individual performances can be placed. It is of in- 
terest to individuals insofar as they are enterprisers in pro- 
duction, but it is of no direct interest to the people as con- 
sumers. All the people are consumers, while only a small 
percentage of them are enterpriser-producers. 

We have felt that our status as a National Survey under 
Federal jurisdiction dedicated us to the larger interest, that 
of the consumers. We have sought to ascertain America's 
capacity to produce goods and services regardless of custom- 
ary or institutional practices, which can be changed at will. 
The results of our Survey indicate what the American people 



FOREWORD XVll 

might expect to have for consumption, given the existing 
equipment, if production were directed toward the satisfac- 
tion of the needs and wants of the population and hmited 
only by our resources, man-power, and knowledge. 

While A was studied, this part of the work was considered 
a preliminary to the major task, which has been to estimate 
capacity from the point of view of B. Even B was found at 
times to distort the objective. There is no reason to assume a 
"bottleneck" or an insufficiency in a product or process when 
an obvious and immediate remedy might easily be applied. 
In all cases, however, such assumptions were carefully noted 
and kept within very narrow limits. 

A stickler for accuracy might object that we are including 
"custom" while pretending to exclude it ; in other words, that 
we are accepting the customary hours of work. This objec- 
tion would be correct but would have no force. To increase 
the hours of work, even to substitute a slave status for labor's 
present contract status, would not increase our product capac- 
ity. In fact, much evidence can be adduced to prove that 
shortening the hours of labor and rewarding the worker 
more generously would increase our product capacity. In any 
case, we have placed this social question outside of the scope 
of our inquiry. 

Inquiry Following C Premature. Others may main- 
tain that a study of capacity should follow definition C since 
it gives the only true picture of possibilities. For instance, 
there is no more reason to limit the carrying capacity of our 
railroads by the existing tractive power, when our locomo- 
tive builders are willing and ready to replace our obsolete 
tractive equipment in from three to four years, than there is 
to limit the estimated product capacity of an automobile 
plant by the fact that demand for automobiles today is sea- 
sonal. 

The observations must nevertheless be qualified by the fol- 



Xviii FOREWORD 

lowing considerations. First, a study of the potential product 
capacity of our nation if the best technological practices were 
universally used ( Definition C ) , would be purely theoretical. 
It would indicate merely an ultimate perfection, towards 
which we should direct our efforts. Again, such a study would 
depend upon a multiplicity of ifs. // our farmers bred from 
the best bulls only, if they fed their cattle the ideal diet, if 
the steers were fattened before marketing, carefully tended 
in transit, slaughtered by the best methods, etc., etc., we 
might expect a specific quantity of meat of a certain high 
standard of excellence. Obviously, in real life, these condi- 
tions could not all be fulfilled. Finally, as previously noted, a 
study along these lines should not be undertaken until B had 
been covered. We should not attempt to estimate what 
we could produce with ideal equipment and management 
until we find out what we can produce with our present 
means. 

New Problems. As the work of the N.S.P.P.C. pro- 
gressed, many new problems were uncovered and many as- 
pects of the study, previously obscure, came into clearer 
focus. For instance, it was found necessary to draw a sharp 
distinction between capital and consumer goods. From the 
viewpoint of the consumer, the former serve only as mate- 
rial and implements for the production of the latter. We do 
not turn iron ore into ingots and bolts for the sake of the 
ingots or the bolts. Furthermore, neither the investor nor 
the worker has any personal use for ingots or bolts. We 
process materials only to produce goods for the use and en- 
joyment of our people. All transmutations should be judged 
solely by this criterion. From this point of view, the produc- 
tion of both raw materials and capital goods becomes an in- 
strumentality instead of an end. Thus our study is focused 
upon consumer goods and services. 

This emphasis has been obscured in the financial-industrial 



FOREWORD XIX 

world, where the major attention is concentrated upon the 
capital-goods and allied industries. Under the existing eco- 
nomic system, our purchasing power depends in large meas- 
ure upon the capital-goods industry. But this industry can- 
not be expected to flourish when unused capacities exist in 
the consumer-goods industry. Industries are obviously dis- 
inclined to install more equipment when they cannot use 
what they already have. 

Our Economy an Organic Entity. Averaging percent- 
ages of unused capacities throughout the range of industry, 
or even in allied industries, will therefore give us no definite 
information on what consumer goods might be expected if 
physical factors alone limited production. 

As a corollary, it follows that estimates of a potential na- 
tional monetary income arrived at by means of an averaging 
of unused capacities, are of limited utility. However, the 
possible production of specific goods and services can be dis- 
covered, and these can be translated into a possible standard 
or budget that will include all goods essential to life. But to 
make such a budget, every branch of industry had to be con- 
sidered in its relation to every other branch. The economy 
had to be considered as an organic entity. 

The necessity of surveying our economy as a whole brought 
to the surface a multitude of problems. Certain occupations 
such as farming possess no measurable "unused product ca- 
pacity." Farmers as a rule produce all they can, and if the 
market will not carry off their stock at the asked price, they 
reduce their first price until the market value meets the "effec- 
tive demand." The "unused capacity" which exists — demon- 
strated by the stepping-up of farm production during the war 
years — cannot be measured by estimating the theoretical 
capacity of the existing plant. Consequently, we were com- 
pelled, in order to give a total picture, to call upon proved 
and tested knowledge of production potentialities in this and 



XX FOREWORD 

similar cases. Whenever this has been done, the fact was 
noted and the alternative methods of increasing production 
were given with an estimate of the time required to make the 
change. 

Utility of Budget. In a few cases existing production 
is more than ample to satisfy needs. In such cases, unused 
capacity in the production of materials or equipment was 
allocated to industries in which production was less satisfac- 
tory. Such necessary allocations were governed by budget 
requirements, and care was taken to base this budget on the 
habits or practices of the American people — on what the 
people actually consume when they have the means. As far 
as possible, we avoided presuming to say what people ought 
to consume. 

In the case of food we adopted the "liberal diet" as 
budgeted by the Department of Agriculture.^ 

Our clothing budget is based on the actual expenditures of 
professional classes in the San Francisco area having a family 
income of ^bout $5,000 to $6,000.^ 

The housing budget was formulated on the assumption 
that the average American family of four desires a six-room 
modern house or its reasonable equivalent in a multiple- 
dwelling unit, both to be fully equipped with labor-saving de- 
vices. 

We were faced by the problem of allocation. Steel, for 
example, can be utilized in a multitude of different ways. In 
order to translate the unused capacity of the steel mills into 
consumer goods, many paths could be taken. Some steel could 
be allocated to housing, some to automobiles, some to imple- 
ments, etc. Our care was to make certain that the total steel 
allocated should equal the total steel available. 

^ Circular 296, "Diets at Four Levels of Nutritive Content and Cost." 
U. S. Department of Agriculture. 

* See Report by the University of California's Heller Committee for Re- 
search in Social Economics. 



FOREWORD XXI 

Let US give an example. Today, a much greater number of 
automobiles could be built than we have been building. Be- 
fore accepting this unused capacity and allotting to the people 
the additional automobiles, it was first necessary to determine 
whether the materials and labor for building them were 
available; then road space had to be considered. How many 
more automobiles could our roads carry? Finally, to build 
motor cars without supplying the fuel for running them would 
benefit no one. And it happens that if the use of automobiles 
in greater number were to be allowed and the use of gasoline 
as the energy source continued, the existing annual supply of 
gasoline would soon prove inadequate, unless a greater pro- 
portion of the available petroleum were "cracked." As a 
consequence, our unused capacity for fabricating motor cars 
could be enjoyed (accepting the limitation of Definition B), 
only if the new cars were of light weight and economical in 
their fuel requirements, and if the older, heavier cars were 
replaced by lighter and improved models. 

In sum, by directing our survey towards consumer needs, 
and making the producer's problem of unused capacity defi- 
nitely secondary, we let ourselves in for a host of complica- 
tions which previous surveys did not face. The inquiry was 
soon seen to possess an unprecedented character. Ours was 
not the task of merely following a beaten path. We had to 
create the way upon which we desired to travel. 

The problem was solved by the use of the flow-sheet de- 
scribed in Chapter I. By beginning with the raw materials 
and following each item through its various processings until 
it emerged as consumer goods, or was used in some instru- 
mentality of production, we avoided the error of duplica- 
tion by not assigning the same raw or processed material 
to different uses. 

Low Appraisement Unavoidable. All estimates of ca- 
pacity in this study, in particular the final conclusions, are 



XXU FOREWORD 

low. This is due to several causes. In the first place, we have 
been deliberately conservative. In the second place, certain 
peculiarities of our present economy tend to make all esti- 
mates of capacity operation understatements. 

For instance, ever since the Industrial Revolution, during 
which production for sale gradually superseded production 
for use, low price has been the prime market requirement. 
Even America is largely a "poor man's" market. Every penny 
saved in costs is likely to expedite sales. But scalping costs by 
using the cheapest possible materials is seldom true economy. 
The use of better materials is likely to add a small percentage 
to the cost of an item, but it also adds a large percentage 
to its life. The competition for cheapness is particularly 
keen in clothing, utensils, household furnishings, and specu- 
lative building, and is characteristic of nearly all quantity- 
production items. A very small addition to the cost of the 
cloth or of the plumbing, for example, would result in an 
article likely to withstand a great deal more wear and tear. 
Unfortunately, under the present system, the additional life 
that might be built into consumer goods, at so slight an addi- 
tional cost, would in no way benefit the manufacturer. His 
pecuniary interest lies in selling a second article to replace 
the one that has been worn out. 

It has not been feasible to include this possible economy 
in our calculations. We have been compelled to estimate the 
product capacity of goods as they are made. Yet if the pro- 
duction of our existing plant were limited solely by physical 
factors and artisanship, the quality of goods could be in- 
creased even as conspicuously as their quantity. 

Furthermore, if physical factors and knowledge alone 
governed production methods, obsolete equipment would be 
replaced as fast as modern equipment could be provided. 
Much of the obsolete equipment could be replaced within a 
year or two. Consequently, on this count, our estimates based 
on the capacity of the existing equipment are again low. 



FOREWORD XXlil 

Practicability of Capacity Production. It might be 
contended that higher speeds of operation would lead to 
breakdowns, of both plant and personnel. Fifty years ago 
this might have been true. Then much of the labor was purely 
physical, of a repetitive nature, hard on the worker and de- 
structive to his morale and well-being. Today, as industrial 
electrification has progressed, controls are becoming simple, 
a matter of "push-button" manipulation or even entirely au- 
tomatic; and labor, when it is not carried on along primitive 
lines such as digging, plastering, and similar occupations, has 
in many cases assumed a supervisory character. As a result, 
the attainment of higher speeds of output does not wear out 
the labor force, as once it did. 

Also, many of the newer processes are of a continuous na- 
ture, and designed to operate at a fixed speed. Any departure 
from this designed speed, or any attempted reduction of out- 
put by slowing-up, is often impossible. The process ceases to 
function. Periodic shut-downs, no matter how carefully man- 
aged, are uneconomical because the depreciation of machinery 
in an idle plant is frequently greater than in an operating 
plant — to say nothing of the inevitable loss of trained per- 
sonnel. Also, the semi-skilled workers suffer serious demoral- 
ization from psychological Insecurity and physical disability 
during the lay-off periods. 

Finally, in plants which do not operate continuously, we 
have made sufficient allowance in figuring capacity to allow 
ample time for repairs and general maintenance service. 

Harold Loeb 



REPORT 

OF THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF 
POTENTIAL PRODUCT CAPACITY 



CHAPTER I 

THE FLOW-SHEET 

What might the consumer expect in the way of goods and 
services if production were limited solely by physical factors 
and knowledge ? 

This question has been asked before, but it has never been 
answered. Previous studies of productive capacity, including 
the U. S. Census of 1921 and 1923, provided much useful 
information; but none performed the necessary operation of 
translating their findings into consumer satisfactions. 

We had first to devise a method. A mere addition and 
average of certain, or even all, "unused capacities" throws 
no light on the problem. Something in the nature of a "flow- 
sheet," starting with the basic factors of resources, man- 
power, knowledge, and equipment, and ending with a con- 
sumer's budget, was required. 

It was necessary to design a flow-sheet or chart on which 
(i) actual production, (2) capacity production, and (3) 
budget, or desirable production, would be graphically shown. 
Certain difficulties presented themselves. To give a picture 
of our economy as a whole, the various parts had to be made 
commensurable. A common denominator was required. 

Many were considered, including weight, man-hours, and 
energy. While these and certain other measures are common 
to all material things, only man-hours is common to both 
goods and services, and all three were found, in many sig- 
nificant respects, to omit the description of many considera- 
tions which are essentially pertinent to these two categories 
as a whole, to one or the other, or to subdivisions of either 
or both. While market values (1929 retail) leave much to 
be desired as a yardstick, they nevertheless convey meaning 

3 



4 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

to the average person. And while the rating of goods and 
services in these terms is largely arbitrary — dependent, upon 
so-called economic "laws" — we nevertheless felt justified in 
presenting our findings in dollar terms. In using them exclu- 
sively on our Flow-Sheet, or Master Chart, it must be re- 
membered that physical quantities were our major concern, 
that we invariably considered the physical quantity as the 
significant background upon which our reports and estimates 
had to be based. The dollar merely served as the final descrip- 
tive technique, the least objectionable and most popularly 
understood yardstick in terms of which to present graphically 
our final picture. 

Although these considerations prevent us from claiming 
scientific finality for the chart — despite the fact that the chart 
is based on scientific studies in which quantitative, i.e., scien- 
tific, measurements were utilized — yet they do not destroy 
the essential truth of the picture we have drawn. For market 
values should not be considered wholly arbitrary except in 
the case of goods intrinsically scarce. Precious stones, antique 
furniture, oil paintings, and so forth, carry dollar valuations 
which bear no relationship to anything in the physical world. 
But these commodities fall outside the scope of our capacity 
study. And the semi-scarce goods, such as "styled" house 
furnishings, amount to so small a proportion of the total 
production that they hardly show up in the final picture. 

In the case of non-scarce goods, which can be manufac- 
tured by mass production and are therefore potentially plen- 
tiful, the market price, or dollar value, bears a very definite 
relationship to the real world of labor and materials. Al- 
though prices vary considerably and continually, the dollar 
value of an individual item tends to bear a constant relation- 
ship to the dollar value of all other items. When this rela- 
tionship changes, it is usually due to a technological improve- 
ment in production, reflecting, therefore, a real happening 
in the real world. 



THE FLOW-SHEET 5 

The reason for this constant relationship between prices 
or market values is apparent. Goods are priced by adding to 
costs whatever profit the market will bear. But today, for all 
potentially plentiful goods, the market permits of but little 
profit. Consequently the market value of such goods repre- 
sents costs plus a small percentage. The small percentage, 
or profit, is fairly constant in quantity-production industry. 

This is true when such goods are subject to competition. 
When the competitive system by means of its own mechanism 
does not apply the necessary restraints — as in the case of 
monopoly goods — the state usually intervenes to keep profits 
within customary limits. Although the state is not conspicu- 
ously successful in this endeavor, it tends, on the whole, to 
prevent today any extraordinary variations in the rate of 
profit. 

Since both interest and rents are included under costs, 
and are the most constant factors (in dollars) of our econ- 
omy, we may assume that the total of market values bears 
a constant relationship to costs. Although market values 
are not the perfect measuring rod, they are, nevertheless, 
sufficiently constant to show not only the relationships exist- 
ing among the innumerable items of our economy, but also 
the proportional importance of each separate item to the 
budget as a whole. 

Unfortunately, the above statement must be slightly quali- 
fied. The market value of most items is slightly greater or 
less than the dollar costs of these items. In recent years 
farm produce has been consistently selling at or below dollar 
costs (if we include the farmer's time and fixed charges as 
cost factors). On the other hand, the products of our great 
corporations, both competitive and monopolistic, have ob- 
tained prices generally above dollar costs. Consequently, 
although our use of market values as a measuring rod enables 
us to give a true picture of the flow of goods through the 
industrial-economic system, the market dollar value of sep- 



6 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

arate items is not always an accurate measure of their pro- 
duction dollar costs. But costs cannot be disentangled from 
market values when most cost factors are subject to market 
forces. We have therefore projected our final picture against 
the reference frame of market values. It has enabled us to 
present accurately the proportional importance (predicating 
an economic system which uses a variable as a unit of meas- 
urement), from the viewpoint of dollar costs, of every item 
to all other items. 

Having decided upon the dollar as our "common denomi- 
nator," we constructed a flow-sheet for 1929. This chart 
shows seven successive vertical columns. Each commodity 
or service, or group of commodities or services, is shown 
as a section of the column. The vertical dimension of the 
column or section of the column represents, as indicated by 
the scale, the 1929 dollar value of the goods and services 
shown therein. 

Sections of columns above the continuous heavy black 
line which splits columns 2, 3, 4, and 5, into two main sec- 
tions, contain lists of goods which must either undergo fur- 
ther fabrication or processing before they become finished 
consumer goods, or goods and services used solely for manu- 
facture, transportation, storage, etc., and which are not paid 
for directly by the consumer. Sections below the heavy line 
contain lists of consumer goods and services. No producer 
goods appear anywhere below the line, and all items shown 
there are finished and ready for consumer use. 

Three separate and distinct facts or estimates arc given 
concerning each item charted. These are : ( i ) the actual 
market value of the 1929 production, (2) possible produc- 
tion, and (3) budgeted production. Inasmuch as (i) is an 
accomplished fact, while (2) and (3) are but engineering 
and economic estimates, we have shown (2) and (3) in 
terms of ( i ) . In other words, for each and every item, ( i ) 



THE FLOW-SHEET 7 

has been set down as the norm, or index, against which to 
measure (2) and (3). 

The value of (i) Is measured against the "dollar scale" 
which rises vertically from the 100%-mark on the horizontal 
"percentage scale" at the foot of each column. Thus the 
vertical dimensions of the item or composite item to which 
each specific section of the column pertains, represent actual 
market value. The capacity line, (2), appears as a heavy 
black line to the right of each column. Its distance from 
the central line represents the unused capacity, measured 
in percentage of the 1929 actual production, of the industry 
which supplies the item in question. But capacity is sometimes 
indefinite,^ and sometimes it is greater than two hundred per 
cent of the 1929 production. For each item we have arbi- 
trarily hmited our graphic presentation to double the quan- 
tity actually produced in 1929. When the capacity line would 
swing out further than the vertical riser indicating two hun- 
dred per cent of 1929 production, we indicate this fact by 
placing an arrow opposite that segment. 

Line (3) appears as the heavy dotted line and follows the 
same rules as the capacity line. It is the line of estimated 
need, or budget.^ It occasionally, unlike (2), lies to the left 
of line ( I ). Whenever this happens, it indicates that we not 
only could, but actually did in 1929, produce more of the 
items in question than called for by our budget. 

For example: In column 5, headed "Consumer Goods," 
in section representing Food; sub-section headed Lard. Here 
(i) is seen to be $315,456, "000" being always omitted on 
the chart. This figure Is the market value, or $315,456,000, 
of the lard actually produced in 1929. Estimate (2) is shown 
to the left of the 200% vertical-percentage riser, for we found 

^ See page xv. 

"The year 1929 was used, since the maximum production of the American 
industrial plant occurred in this year. Needless to say, 1929 is not considered 
a typical year. 



8 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

that we actually had the capacity to slaughter pigs and pre- 
pare twice as much lard as we actually did prepare in 1929. 
But, the heavy dotted line (3) is to the left of line (i) and 
just slightly to the right of the riser indicating 25% of 1929 
production. This is evidence that we produced more lard in 
1929 than we should have consumed had we heeded the ad- 
vice of the diet experts in our Department of Agriculture. 

In the Appendix, Columns i, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (tables) 
give not only the figures on which the chart is constructed but 
also the 1929 production and the capacity production in 
physical terms (weight, yardage, etc.) when these are perti- 
nent. Obviously, when several kinds of machinery come under 
one head (as, e.g., watches and derricks) the weight of the 
total production has no meaning. Also under the heading 
"theoretical value" a figure is given showing what the ca- 
pacity production would have been worth if we assume that 
1929 market prices had been obtained for the presumptive 
capacity production. Of course such prices would not have 
been obtained, under the "open-market" system. The tables 
also give the numbers of the worksheet from which the sta- 
tistics were taken. The worksheets also give the definition 
of capacity for each specific commodity. 

The seven columns and the seven corresponding tables are 
headed: Col. i, "Raw Materials," Col. 2, "Goods in Proc- 
ess," Col. 3, "Goods in Process," Col. 4, "Goods in Proc- 
ess," Col. 5, "Consumer Goods and Services — Wholesale 
Prices," Col. 6, "National Income — Retail Prices," and 
Col. 7, "National Monetary Income." Since the detailed 
statistical bases for the figures which appear in these col- 
umns are to be found in the monographs, worksheets, re- 
ports, and Appendix tables of this Survey, it will suffice here 
to outline the salient features of each column. 

The first, "Raw Materials," records the monetary value 
of all goods produced in this category without giving budget 
or capacity figures. This omission does not mean that ca- 



THE FLOW-SHEET 9 

pacity studies were neglected in this field but simply that 
no effective limitations on consumer goods or supplies de- 
signed for further fabrication were found at this point in 
our economy. Moreover, the capacity to produce farm 
products, constituting some sixty-five per cent of the total, 
and other raw materials is fully treated in the monographs. 

In the second column, commodities are first differentiated 
into two main classes : finished consumer goods^ and materials 
for further fabrication, i.e., goods in process. It should be 
noted that the four columns representing Processes i to 4 are 
not intended to mark each separate step in the flow of goods 
from raw materials to finished products. For instance, whole 
milk as produced by farm or dairy is considered a raw ma- 
terial; that portion which is used as fluid milk is diverted 
to the consumer section in Column 2. Similarly, iron ore, 
after it has been mined, is listed as a raw material; its con- 
version into pig iron is regarded as Process i. This method 
can be followed in detail by referring to specific items in the 
several columns. The groupings are somewhat arbitrary, 
but they permit a workable comparison between production, 
capacity, and a budgeted quantity for the items listed. 

It is apparent from the character of the goods in Column 
2, that the capacities involved in this "process" are crucial, 
for the list includes many products that are created by great 
basic industries which are relatively diflScult to expand. It 
will be noted that all capacities dealing with finished con- 
sumer goods in this column are equal to or exceed budget 
requirements. In the other category, most capacities exceed 
1929 production considerably, but these excesses are sig- 
nificant only when they are checked against budgeted quanti- 
ties of finished goods which call upon these hitherto unused 
capacities. This check is provided in subsequent tables. 

^ All finished consumer goods are carried at wholesale (producers') prices 
until Column 6 is reached, where the retail mark-up is applied to wholesale 
values. 



10 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

The third column lists goods to the value of $40,731,- 
313,000. This is a relatively small (7.8 billion dollars) in- 
crease over the total in the preceding column. However, some 
13.5 billion dollars represent consumer goods in final form 
which are carried unchanged to Column 6, and a part of the 
lumber, fuel, etc., in Column 2, which has not been consumed 
is also entered without a change in value. 

Certain quite important new capacities appear in Column 
3. These include the production of steel ingots, various 
mineral alloys, paper, and raw rubber. A few textiles (knit 
goods) appear in the consumer list. Practically all food has 
reached its ultimate form in this column. 

From the unused capacities in items for further fabrica- 
tion must come such important commodities as steel for 
housing and transportation (rails, bridges, locomotives, 
machinery, etc.), cement, sand, and gravel, etc., etc., which 
require expanded production to meet the Budget. 

Column 4 is devoted entirely to goods for further fabrica- 
tion, consumer goods being carried through this stage un- 
changed. Up to this point, goods in process of work have 
been classified with reference to the industrial origin of such 
materials. In a flow-sheet such as we have constructed, it 
was essential at some stage to shift our classification of goods 
for further fabrication from categories which are based on 
the origin of these commodities to categories which will show 
the destination of these supplies as they emerge in the form 
of finished goods. This transition was made in Column 4; 
therefore, the categories in Column 4 cannot be directly 
compared with those in the preceding table. Moreover, to 
avoid making Column 4 needlessly intricate, many similar 
commodities have been grouped under inclusive headings. 
The detailed data which furnished the basis for these group- 
ings are given in the Appendix (Table II, Column 4, Alloca- 
tion Table). 

In establishing Column 4 capacities, it was necessary to 



THE FLOW-SHEET II 

allocate the products (for further fabrication) appearing 
in Column 3 and to correlate the Column 4 demands for 
Column 3 goods so that their individual totals in no case 
exceeded the various capacities given in Column 3. This was 
done in all instances. A single example will indicate the 
method we followed : 

The unused capacity of structural steel In 1929 was 8.7 
million tons (Column 3). In Column 4 (and subsequently 
in Column 5 ) we have allocated 5.7 million tons of this steel 
to housing construction ; 1.7 million tons to automobile manu- 
facture; 1.2 million tons to machinery, and 0.2 million tons 
to highway construction.-*^ These amounts are additions to 
the quantities so used in 1929. 

Column 5 presents the full inventory of finished goods 
produced in 1929. Capital goods appear in the upper sec- 
tion and represent that fraction of our "permanent" plant 
and equipment increase not Included In the previous col- 
umns. The consumer section shows ( i ) our actual output in 
1929, (2) capacities, and (3) a budget which may be said 
to depict the standard of living to which America is tech- 
nically entitled. 

From an engineering point of view, the Survey terminates 
with Column 5, since the production of all useful goods of 
whatever kind has been examined. However, we felt that a 
more complete picture of our economy would result if we 
also studied those less tangible elements coming under the 
general category of "services." These Inclusions appear in 
Column 6, where "Goods at Wholesale," as listed in Column 
5, are given 1929 retail values, and services are incorporated. 

Thus, If national Income be regarded as the total of goods 
and services produced In a year, Column 6 presents our na- 
tional Income for 1929 and a possible (budgeted) national in- 
come based upon the product capacity available In that year. 

^The total is 8.8 million tons, but steel-production capacity has increased 
some 5 million tons since 1929. 



12 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Since monetary and imputed income together make up 
the national purchasing power in any given year, Column 
7 has been added to the chart for comparison with the two 
totals in Column 6. 

It is obvious that this technique of study and presentation 
has enabled us to examine the production of commodities 
both as separate industrial processes and as interrelated com- 
ponents of our whole economy. 

Furthermore, the technique developed in constructing the 
chart was of great assistance in setting our final budget. Our 
study shows that the track capacity of our railroads is ade- 
quate for carrying a load three times greater than that which 
was carried in 1929, the peak year. Consequently we need 
allocate only enough steel rails to our transportation system 
to maintain the existing trackage. Furthermore, by minor 
changes our steel plants can be rearranged to produce struc- 
tural shapes for construction, or to produce steel for any 
other undertaking which the budget shows to be desirable. 

The defects of the chart may be listed as follows : 

The chart is deficient in that it is not accurate in the sense 
that accountancy is accurate. Census figures, for example, are 
subject to inevitable duplications and omissions. 

Most materials go through a multiplicity of processes be- 
fore they become consumer goods. By throwing together the 
less important, we arbitrarily grouped these processes under 
five headings. In certain cases — raw vegetables, for example 
— where fewer than five processes are needed, the commod- 
ity is carried unchanged from one column to another. The 
five columns are not intended, therefore, to represent a pic- 
ture, complete in every detail, of the process of fabricating 
consumer goods. 

The chart does not show with complete fidelity the flow 
of raw materials to consumer goods. For example, to pro- 
duce raw materials, supplies are required — twine, lubricants, 



THE FLOW-SHEET 1 3 

fuel, machinery, etc. — which are created in later processes. 
The return flow of such supplies could not be shown with- 
out making the chart undecipherable. 

Some few unimportant items may have been left out, al- 
though we caught many generally neglected ones such as wild 
game, bulbs, flower seeds, and the like. The commodity lists 
of various census publications were checked, but none, even 
in their own fields, are all-inclusive. In the services, omissions 
probably amount to a considerable sum. Doubtless many 
recreations, which have market values, have not been in- 
cluded. 

The market-price valuation was not equally serviceable in 
every case. For example, doctors' fees bear no ascertainable 
relationship to doctors' services. 

Capacity estimates are shown only where the capacity 
figure affected our ability to produce consumer goods. For 
example, we have considerable unused capacity for fabricat- 
ing hardware. This capacity is of no relevance unless the 
necessary materials, iron, steel, etc., are available. In other 
words, the limiting factor in the hardware industry is our 
capacity to smelt and refine iron ore and to roll steel. The 
capacity of our iron and steel plants has been carefully esti- 
mated, and the capacity of our hardware fabricators left 
indefinite. The same condition holds good in the textile trade. 
We can fabricate all the clothes for which we have ma- 
terials. Therefore, fabricating capacities have been left in- 
definite whenever, after careful study, they were found to 
be adequate to meet the budget requirements. 

The accomplishments of the chart may be set out as fol- 
lows: 

The chart exhibits a technique for determining the product 
capacity, in consumer goods and services, of American indus- 
try. 

The chart shows the relation between production and 



14 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

plant capacity in all branches of productive work and com- 
pares it to the Budget, or to what our product requirements 
would be if the level of life of the less fortunate portion of 
our citizens were raised to the supposed "American" stand- 
ard of comfort. 

It shows the flow of commodities from raw materials to 
consumer goods and their relative market values during each 
process. 

The sufficiences and deficiences of our materials and equip- 
ment are made clear. If "bottlenecks" had existed, the chart 
would have thrown them into relief. 

Harold Loeb and Felix J. Frazer 



CHAPTER II 

AGRICULTURE 

Food, shelter, and clothing are mankind's three primary 
necessities, and two are supplied from that oldest of all or- 
ganized human activities, agriculture. It is no accident that 
any growth of a settled civilization has been paralleled by 
the establishment of a productive agriculture. But agriculture 
is more than a source of essential foods and fibers. It is a 
way of life, ingrown with tradition. Its roots entwined deeply 
with the roots of all human action. 

This tradition, more than any other one factor, has In- 
sulated agriculture from the full effects of the Industrial 
Revolution. Manufacturing has completely separated from 
its earlier aspects of handicraft. Power today Is machine 
power, not the effort of man's muscles. Farming, coaxing the 
soil to yield Its fruits for man's benefit, remains the plaything 
of sunshine and rain. Rational production, mechanization, 
scientific method, all have begun to affect agricultural pro- 
duction; but on the whole it Is still uncontrolled and unpre- 
dictable. These facts must be, and In this study have been, 
considered in determining the adequacy of American farms 
to supply America's needs. 

Until recently, it was believed that agriculture faced a 
limitless market. Less than a century ago the Malthuslan 
doctrine^ was accepted as economic law. Moreover, the long 
trend of prices was distinctly favorable to farmers. As the 
Industrial Revolution progressed, farm products were ex- 
changeable for more and more Industrial goods. In America, 

^ Malthus declared that population tends to increase faster than man's 
ability to secure food. This theory predicates as a law of Nature the per- 
sistence of large groups subject to poverty and gradual starvation. 

15 



l6 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

between 1815 and 1925, the relative prices of farm stuffs 
increased one hundred per cent over those of industry. 

These facts combined to make farming a particularly in- 
dividualistic enterprise. The world crisis, sharply curtailing 
trade and purchasing power, has exposed a number of very 
grave defects in the existing distributing system. Many 
governments seem to feel the necessity of regulating and 
even restricting the output of their farmers in order to pro- 
vide them with a "fair" market. 

American farmers are not exempt. The A.A.i\. was 
enacted in an effort to apply some measure of coopera- 
tive control to our nearly six million agricultural entre- 
preneurs. 

Let us examine why control is thought necessary and what 
difficulties stand in the way of achieving it. 

Farm proprietors have never been inclined toward co- 
operation. Agriculture is the only basic industry which has 
taken no general steps to control production, to balance sup- 
ply and effective demand. To the contrary, when falling 
prices lower farm incomes the tendency has been for indi- 
vidual producers to increase their output. Because of 
fixed costs, farmers are invariably compelled to maintain 
their operations on nearly the same scale year after year. 
They cannot materially curtail expenses by reducing labor 
charges, since the farmers themselves are the major source 
of farm labor. Under the existing economic system, this 
rigidity is a serious handicap. 

Another peculiarity of present-day agriculture is its rela- 
tively backward technical position. Here and there farm 
units are employing modern methods and equipment, but in 
general production is carried on at a low level of efficiency. 

Each of these factors must be weighed in any survey of 
agricultural resources. 

Magnitude. The United States is still the greatest of 



AGRICULTURE 1 7 

all agricultural countries. Today, agriculture utilizes 51.8% 
of the total land area of the country. Of this 986,771,000 
acres, about 413,000,000 acres (or 42%) are used for crop 
production, while 109,000,000 acres (or 11%) are in plowa- 
ble pasturage. 

The 413 million-odd acres used for crops include nearly 
all the areas and soils best adapted for the purpose. The use 
of additional areas is justified only should the country's need 
for agricultural products increase far beyond anything now 
in view. The possibility of such an increase indicates a po- 
tential capacity much greater than has been considered in 
the Survey. To attain such capacity would require an output 
of labor and power per crop-unit vastly greater than is needed 
on the present acreage. Consequently, the existing unim- 
proved but usable area, some 1,371,000,000 acres, is dis- 
regarded. 

Just as agriculture constitutes the most important use of 
land in the United States, so is it the most important occupa- 
tion of the people. In 1930, according to the U. S. Census, 
there were some 6,288,648 individual farms, on which 
worked some 10.5 million people. The average size of farms 
was 156.9 acres, but farms of 100 or more acres (some 
2,555,174) comprised more than 80% of the total farm 
area. Farm buildings, including farm homes, were valued at 
13 billion dollars. There was 183 million head of livestock 
and half a billion chickens. Crops and livestock were valued 
at 11,741 million dollars. 

In addition to supplying food for 125,000,000 people, 
American farms raised great crops of cotton, wool, tobacco, 
and other products entering into the production of consump- 
tion goods. 

Since land is capable of producing a wide variety of crops, 
it is obvious that any estimate of "capacity" for individual 
items has no real significance. Therefore, this Survey has ap- 
proached the matter by adopting a national budget for food 



1 8 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

and clothing, one which fully meets all dietary requirements 

and assures an adequate wardrobe for winter and summer. 

Table I 
Utilization of the Total Crop Land in the United States* 

Per Cent 

Items Acres of Total 

Cropland, total 413,235,800 

Idle or fallow land 41,287,216 10. o 

Crop failure 12,706,583 3.1 

Crop land harvested 359, 242,091 86 . 9 

Crops harvested 

Corn 97,740,740 23.7 

Wheat 61,999,908 15.0 

Oats 36,525,964 8.8 

Barley 12,890,772 3.1 

Rye 3,032,802 0.7 

Flax 2,965,635 0.7 

Emmer and spelt 344,324 o. I 

Buckwheat 621,854 0.2 

Rice 740,588 0.2 

Annual Legumes 

Grown alone 6,387,591 1.5 

Hay, total 67,827,899 16.4 

Potatoes, Irish or white 2,944,082 0.7 

Sweet Potatoes 649 , 847 o . 2 

Cotton 43,227,488 10.5 

Tobacco 1,888,365 0.5 

Sugarcane 291,447! o.l 

Sugar beets 643 , 797 o . 2 

Sorghum for sirup 136, 143 % 

Sorghum for grain 3,521,903 0.9 

Broom corn 311, 646 o . i 

Hops 23,302 X 

Hemp 1 , 644 X 

Grass seed and millet 3,876,889 0.9 

Vegetables 2,811,715 0.7 

Small Fruits 386,664 o.i 

Orchard and sub-tropical fruits, vineyards, and 

planted nut trees 6,086,176 1.5 

* Source: "Types of Farming in the United States," Bureau of the Census, U. S. 
Department of Commerce. 

t Not including the acreage of sugar cane for seed and other purposes not specified. 
X Less than one-tenth of one per cent. 



The Food Budget. Out of 359 million crop-acres har- 
vested in 1929, all but 48 million were devoted to the pro- 



AGRICULTURE 1 9 

Table II 
"The Liberal Diet" 

Per Capita per Year 

Item Pounds Total 
Flour, cereals: 

Wheat flour 76 

Corn meal, prepared flour, oat breakfast foods, rice, 
macaroni, noodles, wheat breakfast foods, rye 

flour, corn breakfast foods, cornstarch 24 100 

Milk: 

Fresh whole milk 636 

Evaporated 10 646 

White potatoes 1 29 

Sweet potatoes 26 155 

Dried beans, peas, nuts 7 7 

Tomatoes, citrus fruits: 

Tomatoes, fresh 17 

Tomatoes, canned 3^ 

Oranges 35 

Grapefruit 11 

Lemons 9 11° 

Leafy, green, or yellow vegetables: 

Cabbage 68 

Lettuce 24 

Peas 15 

Snap beans 8 

Carrots 7 

Spinach, kale, collards, etc 6 

Asparagus 4 

Peppers 3 I35 

Dried Fruits: 

Raisins 8, prunes 8, others 4 20 20 

Other Vegetables, fruits: 

Apples 1 10 

Bananas 3^ 

Grapes 36 

Peaches 29 

Corn 26 

Onions, turnips, beets, etc 20 

Watermelon 16 

Cantaloupe 13 

Pears 13 

Cucumbers 7 

Celery 7 

Strawberries 6 

Pineapples 6 325 



20 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table II {continued) 

Per Capita per Year 
Item Pounds Total 

Fats: 

Butter 35 

Lard 7 

Vegetable oils and shortenings 7 

Bacon, salt pork 1 

Margarine i 52 

Sugar, molasses, other sweets: 

Sugar 45 

Molasses 10 

Other 5 60 

Lean meat, poultry, fish: 

Beef 56 

Pork 65 

Lamb and mutton 5 

Veal 8 

Poultry 18 

Fish 13 165 

Eggs 30 dozen 30 dozen 

duction of human foods, either directly or in supplying rations 
for livestock and poultry. Crops failed on nearly 13 million 
acres and 41 million acres lay fallow. 

Of our agricultural plant, about 86% was given over to 
supplying directly, or indirectly through animals, the na- 
tion's larder. How did the output compare with America's 
needs? Circular 296, U. S. Department of Agriculture, 
analyzes our food requirements with scientific thoroughness, 
as shown in Table II. 

The "Liberal Diet" presented in this excellent study was 
"computed from diets adapted to the needs of individuals in 
different age, sex, and activity groups, and from the number 
of persons in each group as shown by the 1930 census." It 
fully covers the annual requirements for maintenance and 
growth and allows a margin of safety as well. Moreover, 
the items and quantities specified have been closely related 
to our past production. Correct food habits are basic to 
good health, and this fundamental requisite is assured by the 
"Liberal Diet." After multiplying these individual items by 



AGRICULTURE 2 1 

125,000,000, Table III shows how they compare with 1929 
production. 

Table III 
Comparison of 1929 Production with "Liberal Diet" Needs 

000 Omitted 

Budget 
Deficit (— ) or 

Item Production (lbs.) Budget (lbs.) Excess (+) (lbs.) 

Flour, cereals 30,704,428 12,500,000 18,204,428 + 

Whole milk 98,698,000* 176,375,000* 77,677,000 — 

Butter 2,142,312 4,375,000 2,332,688 — 

All potatoes 20,405,670 19,375,000 1,030,670+ 

Dried beans, peas, nuts. .. . 2,167,070 875,000 1,282,070+ 

All other vegetables 23,840,388 30,750,000 6,909,612 — 

All fresh fruits t 24,293,862 45,125,000 20,831,000 — 

Fats (other than butter) .. . 4,708,000 1,875,000 2,823,000+ 

Sugar and sugar products §. 5,038,550 7,500,000 2,461,450 — 

Beef 4,849,410 7,000,000 2,150,590 — 

Pork J 8,669,620 8,375,000 294,620+ 

Lamb and mutton 681,530 750,000 68,470— 

Veal 774,823 1,000,000 225,177 — 

Poultry 1[ 1,574,079 2,250,000 675,920 — 

Fish 2,140,200 1,625,000 515,200+ 

Eggs (individual) 31,276,630 45,000,000 1.3.723,370 — 

* Including whole milk for butter. 

t Including fresh grapes and plums for dried raisins and prunes. 

j Including bacon and salt pork. 

§ Not including imports. 

^ Wild game not included. 

In addition to revealing both shortages and excesses, this 
comparison indicates quite clearly that the nation has relied 
far too much upon starches, sugars, and fat meats. This 
verdict is reinforced when sugar imports (9,761,778,000 
pounds during 1929) are considered. 

Custom and economic necessity take first place among the 
several factors influencing food habits. Cereals, fats, and 
sugars have dominated our diet because they were inexpen- 
sive and generally considered wholesome. Moreover, our 
cereal surplus, easily stored and shipped, was well adapted 
to foreign trade. Thus wheat, the leading "cash" grain, has 
always been allotted a large share of farm acreage, the area 
increasing from 20,470,000 acres in 1866-75 to 73,700,000 
In 1919. Exports grew in even greater ratio, being 19,173,- 



22 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

000 bushels in 1852-56 and 366,077,000 bushels in the peak 
year, 1921 (both figures include export flour calculated as 
wheat). 

Corn, the chief "feed" grain, is the most productive cereal 
farmers can grow on an extended scale. This fact is reflected 
in the areas devoted to corn: an annual average of 37,216,- 
000 acres during the period 1866-75, ^ peak of 1 16,730,000 
acres in 1917, and 97,806,000 acres in 1929. Average annual 
yields have ranged between 20.4 and 30.2 bushels per acre. 
Very little of this huge production has served directly as 
human food. It was fed to livestock. By and large, swine 
make the most economical use of feed grains in producing 
edible meat. Therefore, it is not surprising to find pork now 
outranking all other meats in the American diet. This grow- 
ing disproportion is well illustrated by the actual production 
figures, shown in Table IV. 

Table IV 
Meat Production — 1929 * 

Total Per Capita 

Production Consumption 

Yearly Average Pounds t Pounds t 

1910-1914 All meat (excluding lard) 13,776,000,000 139-2 

" Pork (excluding lard) 6,361,000,000 61.7 

" Beef 6,109,000,000 63.8 

" Veal 552,000,000 5.8 

" Mutton and lamb 711,000,000 7.4 

1926-1930 All meat (excluding lard) 16,854,000,000 137-8 

" Pork (excluding lard) 8,798,000,000 69.8 

" Beef 6,501,000,000 55.0 

" Veal 858,000,000 7.2 

" Mutton and lamb 696,000,000 5.8 

* Source: "Statistical Abstracts of the United States," 1933, U. S. Department 
of Commerce. 

t Including estimated but uninspected slaughter. 
X Balanced for exports and imports. 

Lard production and consumption have followed the same 
course. The United States used 11.5 pounds per capita an- 
nually during 1910-1914 and 14.0 pounds as a 1926-1930 



AGRICULTURE 23 

average. Moreover, lard exports increased from 519 million 
pounds annually for 1910-1914 to 758 million during the 
1926-1930 period. 

This digression has sketched, in very brief and broad out- 
lines, the influence of custom and certain economic forces in 
determining land utilization for food crops and livestock, 
particularly those aspects of past production which underlie 
the chief disparities shown in Table III. The world depres- 
sion, the steady growth of nationalism and tariff barriers, 
and the financial disability of American agriculture have fin- 
ally destroyed the utility of farming precedents. 

Therefore, in presenting a plan for a feasible and more 
adequate utilization of our agricultural plant, this survey 
neither violates tried and satisfactory working traditions nor 
imposes unnecessary changes upon our 6 million farmer- 
entrepreneurs. 

Since "capacity" for any individual item of food is almost 
unlimited if it is considered separately, the sum of all food re- 
quirements must be known and correlated before a method of 
land utilization can be recommended. Also, the required 
acreage for the non-food crops — cotton, flax, tobacco, hemp, 
broom corn, etc. — must be taken into account. 

Table V is a preliminary summation of acreage require- 
ments under the budget. 

The figures in this table are preliminary because they 
merely measure acreage in terms of 1929 average yields and 
compare the total area involved with current improved land 
resources. In other words, following closely the 1929 scheme 
of land utilization, and with that year's per-acre production, 
the unused but improved acreage alone was suflScient to meet 
the livestock and human food requirements of the liberal 
diet budget. 

This is very far from the whole story however. It is even 
more important to know what additional changes in plant 
operations are necessary to increase efficiency, to lessen input 



24 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table V 

Preliminary Table of Land Utilization to Meet Budget * 

Acreage Increase 
"Budget" over 1929 

Item 1929 Acres Acres Requirement 

All grains t 223,164,000 228,515,000 1[ 5,351,000 

All hay 70,603,000 f 94,408,000 23,805,000 

Annual legumesll 6,360,000 5,087,000 i ,273,000 (decrease) 

Hops 25,000 25,000 

Peanuts 2,001,000 2,001,000 

Sugar cane and sugar beet, 

etc 1,306,000 2,153,000 847,000 

Cotton 45,793,000 54,633,000 § 8,840,000 

Flax 3,047,000 3,047,000 

Tobacco 1,987,000 1,987,000 

All vegetables 7,998,000 8,736,000 738,000 

Tree fruits and nuts 6,524,000 6,015,000 509,000 (decrease) 

Grapes 674,000 1,202,000 528,000 

Other fruits 850,000 866,000 16,000 

Total 370,332,000 408,675,000 38,343,000 

Grass seeds 3,877,000 4,500,000 623,000 

* Source: Worksheet 220, N.S.P.P.C. 

t Including sorghum and corn silage. 

i Including cereals cut for hay. 

II Cowpeas, field peas, dry beans, velvet beans, soy beans. 

§ Based on 1928-32 average production per acre. 

^ Corn yield per acre based on 1919-28 average. 

of labor and power. These Increases per unit are another as- 
pect of agriculture's potential capacity. The matter follow- 
ing will consider them in some detail under their individual 
headings. 



Milk. Milk is first in importance, both by reason of the 
77-billion-pound gap between peak, production and current 
needs, and because milk excels all other foods as a basic nu- 
trient. It is also the raw material of butter, cheeses, and 
other dairy products. 

The milk supply depends directly upon three factors: the 
number of milking cows, their individual capacity to pro- 
duce, and the kind and amount of stock feed available. Only 
the last item is provided for in Table V. 

The national herd of 22,537,000 cows produced an aver- 



AGRICULTURE 25 

age of 4,427 pounds of milk each, containing approximately 
3.98% of butter fat. How nearly did this performance rep- 
resent maximum production per cow? If adequate rations 
had been provided for every animal, what increase is indi- 
cated? There is no detailed record of the feeding methods 
of the 4,453,000 farmers reported as keeping cows or heifers 
for milk production on April i, 1930. However, the produc- 
tion from cows kept in dairy herds of fifty or more may be 
taken as a safe maximum reflecting the result of good care 
and proper feeding. This average figure, 5,810 pounds, ap- 
plied to the 22,537,000 cows "in milk" during 1929, gives 
a possible total of 130,939,970,000 pounds, but this "im- 
mediate potential" is nearly ^6 billion pounds short of the 
nation's requirements. 

To meet the national requirements, the number of cows 
must be increased by 17,263,000 head if calculations are 
based on the actual (average) production per cow in 1929; 
by 13,294,000, if only the additional animals are considered 
as being kept in dairy herds and yielding 5,810 pounds of 
milk each; and by only 7,900,000, if the yield of all cows 
were raised to the productive level of the 1929 dairy herds. 

In Table V, stock feeds (grain and forage) were calcu- 
lated on the second assumption, that the increased plant was 
to operate at the 1929 level of efficiency of the dairy herds. 
Except in the case of wheat, it was furthermore assumed 
that the 1929 production of stock-feeds was utilized by that 
year's livestock, cattle, and other domestic animals. Thus, 
the required increases to meet the budget can be treated sep- 
arately without having to readjust 1929 land utilization to 
each change. The feed needs of 13,294,000 additional dairy 
cows were calculated from the Food Administration formula 
given in Henry and Morrison, "Feeds and Feeding," where 
cows producing annually between 5,000 and 6,000 pounds of 
4%-butter-fat milk were considered. 

Disregarding the production possibilities of herd improve- 



26 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

ment through selection and breeding, how quickly could 13,- 
294,000 average milk cows be added to our dairy plants? 
The U. S. Census of April, 1920 reports 8,744,000 heifer 
calves "on farms and born during 1929." Of this number, 
4,777,000 were estimated as being kept for milk cows on 
January i, 193 1. On the same date, 4,882,000 heifer calves 
less than one year old were being kept for milk cows. Thus, 
there is an indicated disappearance of approximately 4 mil- 
lion heifer calves annually. At least 75% might have been 
retained for milk production — an annual increase of nearly 
3,000,000. So by this method six years-^ should be sufficient to 
meet the milk budget. 

This involves a working herd of 35,841,000 average ani- 
mals. Any discussion of dairy-products "potential" should 
include a survey of the results that can be achieved through 
proper selection and breeding. Records of more than 200,- 
000 cows compiled by the Bureau of Dairy Industry show 
that these animals, in dairy-improvement associations, aver- 
aged 7,464 pounds of milk and 295 pounds of butter fat 
annually. Many individual records exceed 20,000 pounds of 
milk, and butter production per cow has gone beyond 1,000 
pounds. At present, only about 2.2% of our milk herd is on 
test. A sustained program of selection and breeding could 
lift the annual milk production to 8,000 pounds per cow 
within 15 years, and to 12,000 pounds per cow within 20 
years. Table VI summarizes these findings. 

Table VI 

Cows Needed for an Annual Production of 176,325,000,000 Pounds of Milk * 

Total Needed Time Required 
Average Production per Cow (lbs.) Number Years 

4»4-7 .39,000,000 5 

5,810 30,437,000 8-10 

8,000 22,168,000 15 

1 2 , 000 14, 700 , 000 20 

* Source: Report No. 243, N.S.P.P.C. 

* Four years to produce the total number and two years for the last calves 
to "freshen." 



AGRICULTURE 27 

Beef and Veal Production. The 1929 production of 
beef animals was 11,690,155,000 pounds, or 5,020,845,000 
pounds short of the live-weight needed to furnish the budget 
requirement of 56 pounds of "dressed retail cuts" per capita. 
The average weight of beef animals slaughtered in 1929 was 
955 pounds. This would indicate a need for about 5,257,000 
additional beef animals. However, in meeting the milk re- 
quirement by an increase of more than 13 million cows with 
an average milking life of 6 years, approximately 2,216,000 
would be slaughtered annually. This number would decrease 
as the average productivity was raised. 

Giving these over-age cows a slaughter weight of 725 
pounds and taking the annual number as 2,216,000, there 
would still be a deficit of 3,410,000,000 pounds of live- 
weight. To supply this, about 3,789,000 beef steers weighing 
900 pounds would be needed. Since approximately half of all 
calves "dropped" are bull calves, the expansion of the dairy 
herd as indicated above would provide this number. In a 
long-time correlation of beef and milk production, the entire 
beef supply above the amount contributed by over-age dairy 
cows should come from animals raised for food purposes 
and "finished off" at about 1,000 pounds live-weight. 

The veal shortage, 456,201,000 pounds live-weight, re- 
quires 3,041,000 animals averaging 150 pounds each. Fed 
the recommended ration, whole milk, from birth to slaugh- 
ter, these calves would consume the output of about 354,000 
cows yielding 5,810 pounds each. This number is Included 
in the total of 13,294,000 given above. 

Since five years are required to expand the dairy herd, 
more immediate methods of increasing the beef and veal 
supply have been examined. These involve the better "fin- 
ishing" of beef animals slaughtered (an average Increase 
of 20 pounds for 12,241,000 heads) and a one-year decrease 
in the live-weight of slaughtered veal to the same amount, 
i.e., 1,400,000 head at 175 pounds each, these calves to be 



28 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

fed to 600 pounds and marketed the next year, thus provid- 
ing an additional 840,000,000 pounds of beef. Increased 
breeding can add at least 1,418,750 head of veal within 
a two-year period. If half this number were carried to 600 
pounds before slaughter (adding 635,628,000 pounds to the 
inventory) and the remainder slaughtered for veal (adding 
123,140,000 pounds) this would add 758,768,000 pounds 
to our beef and veal inventory, which can be used to satisfy 
the demands of our budget. 

These figures are summarized in Table VII. 

Table VII 

Beef and Veal Production * 

Total Number of Animals Average Live- Weight 

Slaughtered: Farms, Packing- per Head Total Live- Weight 

Houses, etc. Pounds Pounds 

(1929 Production) 

Beef 12,241,000 955 11,577,223,000 

Veal 8,313,000 176 1,563,799,000 

(First- Year Potential, after Initiating Budget) 

Beef 12,241,000 975 12,172,875,000 

Veal 7,060,000 176 1,242,650,000 

(Second- Year Potential, after Initiating Budget) 

Beef 12,241,000 975 11,934,975,000 

Beef 1,400,000! 600 840,000,000 

Beef 709,000$ 600 425,000,000 

Veal 709,000! 176 124,784,000 

Veal 8,313,000 176 1,563,799,000 

* Source: Report No. 314, N.S.P.P.C. 

t Yearlings from first year's reduction in number of veal calves slaughtered. 

t Half the increase due to breeding. 

These annual gains — roughly 1,265,000,000 pounds of 
beef animals and 125,000,000 pounds of veal calves — would 
meet the budget for these items in 4 years. 

Lamb and Mutton. Sheep and lambs slaughtered in 
1929 totaled 1,490,223,000 pounds live-weight. The budget 
requirement is 1,650,000,000 pounds. Two years would suf- 
fice to reach this figure. The deficit, 159,777,000 pounds. 



, AGRICULTURE 29 

could be met by an increase of 1,997,000 lambs killed at 
80 pounds. By retaining 2 million for breeding purposes, the 
subsequent year's production from these ewes would bring 
this item of the budget into balance. 

Swine. In 1929, a total of 16,415,343,000 pounds live- 
weight of hogs were killed for pork and lard. This was 
2,150,590,000 pounds above our current dietary needs. A 
suggested method of reducing this surplus is by marketing 
hogs of lighter weight. The 72,512,000 head slaughtered 
in 1929 averaged 226 pounds. The same number "finished" 
at 200 pounds would not only be adequate but would repre- 
sent a lowered input of feed-stuffs per pound of weight as 
well as a decrease in the percentage of lard. 

Poultry and Eggs. The poultry flock has two functions : 
it must furnish both meat and eggs. Since the practical lay- 
ing life of chickens is two years, one-half the egg producers 
will be killed and eaten annually. These two factors must 
be correlated in a survey of poultry requirements. Chickens 
are the great source of poultry supply, as 1929 figures, given 
in Table VIII, show. 

How should this poultry supply be manipulated to produce 

Table VIII 
1929 Production of Poultry Meat * 

Average 

Live- Total Edible 

Total Weight Weight Meat 

Number Pounds Pounds Pounds 

Chickens raised 673,092,000 .... 

Chickens consumed on 

farms 161,650,000 5.0 808,250,000 49ij577,556 

Chickens sold alive or 

dressed 284,626,000 5.0 1,423,130,000 872,514,937 

Ducks raised 11,237,000 5.0 56,185,000 31,408,000 

Geese raised 3,990,000 10. o 39,990,000 26,931,000 

Turkeys raised 16,794,485 11. 5 193,137,000 146,784,000 



Total 2,520,692,000 1,569,215,493 

* Source: Report No. 390, N.S.P.P.C. 



30 REPORT OF THE N. S. p. P. C. 

Table VIIIa 
1929 Egg Production (Chickens only)t 

Average Eggs Total Egg 

per Hen Production 

Laying flock 378,878,000 85.2 32,276,630,000 

Estimated number of eggs used for hatching 1,000,000,000 

Available for consumption 31,276,630,000 

t Source: Report No. 576, N.S.P.P.C. 

annually the 45 billion eggs and 3,375,000,000 pounds live- 
weight of birds that are called for by the budget? Here, too, 
capacity must be expressed as a coordinated whole. More- 
over, the productivity of laying hens varies widely; breed 
strain, general care, and feeding, all influence output. Neg- 
lecting the possibilities in selective breeding, 108 eggs per 
hen are taken as the immediate potential resulting from full 
feeding for maximum production. Thus, the basic laying 
flock should number 416,667,000 hens and pullets. 

In order to follow as closely as possible the 1929 pattern 
while expanding the production of poultry meat, the addi- 
tional live-weight needed (after calculating the supply from 
laying stock killed) is assigned to broilers, turkeys, ducks, 
and geese in direct proportion to the 1929 inventory. Table 
IX gives the figures. 

Table IX 
Two-Year Poultry Meat Potential * 

Average Total 

Total Live-Weight Weight 

Number Pounds Pounds 

Over-age hens 208,333,500 5.0 1,041,667,000 

Breeding flock (source of hatching 

eggs) 12,601,000 5.0 63,005,000 

Broilers 780,584,000 2.5 1,951,460,000 

Ducks 3,639,000 5.5 20,014,000 

Geese 815,000 10. o 8,150,000 

Turkeys 25,267,000 11. 5 290,570,000 

Total 3,374,866,000 

* Source: Report No. 390, N.S.P.P.C. 

This program presents no difliculties to poultry raisers 



AGRICULTURE 3 1 

beyond the necessity of hatching and brooding the additional 
birds, either by mechanical means or by permitting a larger 
number of broody hens to set. Obviously, too, the heavy em- 
phasis upon "broilers" is somewhat arbitrary and any long- 
range schedule of production can easily be brought into direct 
line with public taste. 

Finally, the fecundity of the laying flock can be increased 
by proven methods of breeding and selection. The Connecti- 
cut Egg Laying Contests, conducted annually since 19 14, il- 
lustrate this possibility. Farmer contestants reached an 
average of 229 eggs per hen in 1933. General application 
of their poultry methods requires a maximum of twenty 
years and reduces the basic laying flock more than fifty per 
cent. The U. S. Department of Agriculture (Farmers' Bulle- 
tin 877) has calculated that the yield from one crop-acre 
of farm staples will produce 122.4 dozen eggs when fed to 
poultry. In other words, an average acre supports 13.6 hens 
laying at the rate of 108 eggs each, yearly. As ninety per 
cent of the food consumed goes to bodily maintenance, if 
our laying flock were reduced by 208,000,000 birds, between 
twelve and thirteen million crop-acres would be released for 
other use. 

Vegetables. Though Table IV shows only a small in- 
crease in vegetable acreage needed to meet the budget, there 
is actually a considerable shift away from starchy and highly 
nitrogenous crops (potatoes, beans, and dried peas), and 
practically all truck crops require Increases.^ 

^ The U. S. Census does not report either the acreage or the pounds of 
vegetables produced in farm gardens for home use. Hence, the 1929 produc- 
tion and acreage figures include an estimate for farm gardens. This was 
made as follows: The Census (1930) gives the farm value of all truck 
crops harvested for sale in 1929 as $295,963,373. It also gives the total value 
of vegetables grown in farm gardens for home use only (not including 
white or sweet potatoes or yams) as $226,046,413. Combining both values 
($522,009,786) and taking the percentage of this total representd by $226,- 
046,413, establishes an approximate figure of 43%. This was the basis for 
calculating farm-garden production, except in the case of celery, which is 



32 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Because commercial seed-houses figure closely in contract- 
ing for their anticipated needs, lack of seed appears as a limit- 
ing factor in first-year potential. This could be corrected in 
one crop season. 

Fruits and Tree Nuts. The great bulk of the fruit crop 
(85%) is produced in orchards or vineyards, which do not 
reach bearing age for several years (the interval varies) 
after planting but remain productive for long periods. The 
U. S. Census of Agriculture does not report either the acre- 
ages in these several fruits or the age of trees or vines. Those 
of bearing age and those not yet bearing are reported sep- 
arately by number. With this information, it is possible to 
assign approximate acreages by dividing the number of trees 
or vines grown commercially on an acre into the reported 
number of trees or vines. 

In calculating the budget acreage needs as given in Table 
V and X, average yields per tree represent conservative es- 
timates based upon L. H. Bailey's "Cyclopedia of American 
Horticulture," Samuel Eraser's "American Fruits," the hor- 
ticultural experience of Mr. M. G. Kains, and publications 
of numerous experiment stations. Because citrus-fruit pro- 
duction is already highly commercialized, the actual 1929 
yields have been taken as potential production per tree. The 
conservative nature of all these potentials is well illustrated 
by reference to these yields, which have been attained in large 
scale production: apples (Western N. Y.), 418 lbs. per tree 
average; apples (Washington), 350 lbs. per tree average; 
plums, 300 lbs. per tree average; grapes, 26 lbs. per vine 
average. 

a highly specialized crop — 1929 production for sale being increased only 
10% in this case. 

Undoubtedly, such a method may be far from accurate in its picture of 
individual crop-acreages but it is felt that errors should more or less bal- 
ance each other and that the estimate of 2,040,858 acres for the 4,360,652 
farms reporting home gardens is an acceptable figure. Production per acre 
in these farm gardens is assumed to etjual that of commercial growers, and 
the calculations for acreage changes were based upon reported 1929 yields. 



AGRICULTURE 33 

Table X 

Tree and Other Fruits 

Comparison of 1929 Acreage with Budget Requirements * 

Additional 
Trees and 

Estimated Deficit Vines Assumed 

When Young Trees Required Yield 

Item 1929 Deficit Reach Bearing Age Number per Tree 

Lbs. Lbs. Trees or Vines Acres Lbs. 

Apples 7,647,010,000 375,040,000 3,261,226 93,180 IIS 

Pears 566,340,000 422,776,000 (excess) 96 

Peaches 1,466,004,000 2,066,312,000 (excess) 7* 

Grapes t 4,340,000,000 3,731,015,000 287,001,000 327,570 13 

Oranges 507,900,000 738,280,000 (excess) 160 

Grapefruit 598,350,000 278,720,000 (excess) 152 

Limes and lemons . 433,344,000 402,284,000 1,764,400 20,750 228 

Plums 1,401,500,000 58,205,000 808,400 8,084 72 

Total 16,960,448,000 1,060,456,000 

Bananas 4,500,000,000 4,500,000,000 

Deficit 21,460,448,000 5,560,456,000 18,400 1 

Less apricotslj . . . . 432,000,000 579,760,000 

Less cherries 1 i ... . 186,880,000 389,880,000 

Net deficit 20,841,568,000 4,590,816,000 

Other fresh fruits § 1,550,241,000 1,550,241,000 15,400! 

Grand total 22,391,809,000 6,141,057,000 33,800 

* Source: Worksheet No. 220, N.S.P.P.C. 
t Vines. 

t Net figure, balanced for excess and assuming banana import (J-| average in grapes, }i in pears, 
a in apples). 
II Not specified in diet, hence considered as "excess." 
§ Includes bush berries, cantaloupes, watermelons, pineapples, etc. 

The wide adaptability of apples and grapes, which repre- 
sent the major indicated deficits, brings the fruit require- 
ment within easy reach. Moreover, the immediate expansion 
of truck-fruit acreage (cantaloupes, berries, etc.) will take 
care of those temporary deficits that are now chargeable to 
young trees. As the latter reach bearing age, the production 
of annual and small fruits could be diminished. 

Thus this essential category presents no real problem to 
American horticulture. Neither the acreage demands nor the 
new nursery stock required will tax our national resources. 
Incidentally, the present acreage in tree nuts will exceed the 
budget when young trees reach bearing age. 



Farm Mechanization and Acreage Demands. Before 
presenting a more adequate system of land utilization, it is 
essential to look at the effects which follow when trucks and 
tractors are used in farming. For a brief summation of past 



34 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

results, It will suffice to quote from page i8 of the report of 
former President Hoover's Committee on Recent Social 
Trends. 

This committee found that the "use of the gas engine has 
reduced the number of horses and mules by lo million during 
the past fourteen years, thereby releasing about 30 million 
plough acres and large areas of pasture." Yet the 1930 cen- 
sus figures indicate that 5,024,713 farms (80%) had either 
horses or mules totaling 19,699,000 head. Fewer than 900,- 
000 farms possessed tractors and only 845,345 farmers 
drove trucks ! Clearly, our agriculture is in the power age, 
but not of it. 

Without considering the human labor released, what crop 
acreage can be freed for other purposes by added mechan- 
ization? Not all farms are adapted to tractors and trucks. 
Moreover, the replacement is not usually complete. A con- 
servatively practical method of calculation has been followed 
in determining the horses or mules which should be elimi- 
nated. 

In 1929, horses averaged roughly one to each fifty acres 
of farm land. The 2,555,174 farms (of 100 or more acres 
in extent) with a combined area of 832,137,000 acres, were 
83-4% of the U. S. farm total. How much of this vast area 
may be worked with tractors? Table XI was used to deter- 
mine this. 







Table XI 










Farms 


of All Types 






Estimated % 

Adapted to 

Tractors, etc. 


Size of Farms 
in Acres 


Number 
of Farms 


Total 
Acreage 


Estimated 

Number of 

Horses, 

Total * 


Estimated Horses 

or Mules Released by 

Mechanization 


SO 

SI 

8s 
90 


100 to 174 
175 to 259 
260 to 499 
soo to 999 
1000 and over 


1.342.927 

520,593 

451.338 

159,696 

80,620 


180,213,727 
110,264,530 
156,521,810 
108,924,022 
276,212,832 


3,604,27s 
2,205,291 
3,150,362 
2,178,480 
5.522,256 


1,802.138 
1,653,968 
2,520,290 
1,851,708 
4,970,030 



16,660,664 12,798,134(76.8%) 

* Based on an average for the entire U. S. of 50 acres per horse or mule. (No reduction for acreage 
covered by 920,021 tractors.) 

If horse-mule replacement by tractors and trucks were 



AGRICULTURE 35 

complete, in accordance with the estimated number of farms 
adapted to mechanization, the indicated number would be 
12,798,134 head of horses or mules. 

Estimated horses or mules released by mechanization (maximum) .... 12,798, 134 
Assigning one team per farm to 1,529,277 farms having tractors but 
still requiring some horse or mule power 3>o58>554 



Indicated practical horse or mule replacement 9 » 739 > 580 

Indicated new tractor units needed 1,529,277 

Lacking data that would provide a basis for calculation, 
the number of draft animals replaceable by farm trucks has 
been assumed to be 1 10,420, to make a total round figure of 
9,850,000. 

An average maintenance ration for horses or mules at 
medium work^ indicates that the accompanying figures can 
be safely used: 

Annual Ration Total Savings for 

per Head 9,850,000 Head 

Food Pounds Total Pounds Acres© ig^g Av. Yields 

Corn 2,408 23,718,800,000 15,000,000 

Oats 800 7,880,000,000 8,074,000 

Hay 2,000 19,700,000,000 7,137,000 

Crop Rotation — The Basis of a Sound Agriculture. 
Even with this significant release of acreage, the ratio of 
so-called "cultivated" crops to forage is far from ideal. A 
permanent soil-building program must include a larger pro- 
portion of leguminous hay. Destructive soil erosion, leach- 
ing, and continued low yields per acre will penalize an 
ever-increasing number of farmers if they adhere to the old 
exploitative scheme of "soil mining."^ 

An obvious and desirable means of narrowing the crop 
ratio, without acreage expansion or a reduction in stock 
feeds, is suggested here. Only 16,674,000 acres of wheat are 

^Bulletin No. 1463, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture. 

"The U. S. Bureau of Chemistry and Soils reported in 1930 that "some- 
thing like 17,500,000 acres of land that were formerly cultivated in this 
country have been destroyed by gullying . . ." In addition, three or four 
million acres of rich bottom land have been buried under sand and gravel. 
The certain impoverishment of farmers in such stricken areas is recognized 
as a very serious challenge to American agriculture. 



36 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

needed to supply human demands under the "Liberal Diet." 
In the preliminary table of land utilization, Table IV, 62,- 
671,000 acres are devoted to wheat, the apparent excess 
being assigned to livestock, chiefly dairy cows and poultry, 
which receive 7,258,000,000 pounds of wheat. 

Careful feeding experiments show that alfalfa hay or meal 
will adequately replace wheat bran, pound for pound, where 
other concentrates are fed in the ration. This substitution, 
at 1929 per acre yields, would release 8,400,000 wheat acres 
for alfalfa production. Moreover, total stock-food would be 
increased. Where local conditions dictate the growth of other 
legumes, these, too, will meet the feeding requirements. 

Table XII shows the allocation of improved land to meet 
our budget. 

Table XII 

Improved Land Utilization to Meet Budget 

(Giving effect to increased mechanization and better stock rations) 

(000 Omitted) 

Item 1929 Acres Table IV Acres Recommended Acres 

All Grains 223,164 228,515 197,041 

All Hay 70,603 94,408 124,382* 

Cotton 45.793 54.633 54.633 

All Others 34. 77^ 33. 218 33.ii8 

Grass Seeds 3.877 4.500 6,000 

* This utilization indicates an excess of hay. In actual practice much of this 
acreage could be used for semi-permanent pasture, thus reducing labor input for 
stall feeding of livestock, as well as permitting rapid soil improvement and increased 
use of green manure. 

It is hardly necessary to point out the tremendous advan- 
tages inherent in such a method of land utilization. It is close 
to the ideal ratio, 3.2, which permits the farmer to keep his 
land in soil-building legumes two out of every five crop-years. 
Today, the returns from acreage so handled far exceed 
"average" production in the same locality. General fertility, 
drought resistance, workability and soil aeration are all en- 
hanced enormously. Such a cropping system must underlie a 
healthy program for American agriculture. Moreover, it 
opens the way to the discussion of "potential" yields — yields 



AGRICULTURE 37 

which are within the reach of every farmer and will lift this 
all Important occupation to a real parity with other produc- 
tive elements in the national life. 

Because this study has not Introduced hitherto unknown 
and revolutionary practices — starthng ways of suddenly 
stepping-up production — the question naturally arises as to 
why six million industrious farmers, anxious for maximum 
returns, have consistently chosen relatively inefficient meth- 
ods. Inadequate purchasing power outside the farming popu- 
lation has undoubtedly restricted total production. A variety 
of economic factors have accentuated this restrictive ten- 
dency and prevented full and equitable exchange of goods 
between urban and rural producers. Yet these influences 
could not prompt a particular farmer to raise less grain per 
acre, or breed and keep scrub cows. Nor can the farm popu- 
lation as a whole be said to lack information on this subject. 
The U. S. Department of Agriculture, competent state ex- 
periment stations, and trained county agents have co- 
operated in pointing the way to better methods. Today, most 
farmers know what these methods are.^ 

The sharply limiting factor has been, and still is, the im- 
mediate necessity of quick cash crops or feed grains which 
can be converted readily to cash. Food habits and the export 
market have dictated what these money crops should be. 
Long-range plans for soil and livestock improvement have 
yielded to the daily demands of farm households. Moreover, 
good farming practices often Involve considerable initial ex- 
pense — outlays which a hard-pressed agriculture could not 
or dared not make in the face of uncertain prices and weather 
conditions. Finally, as the western prairies, vast and rela- 
tively fertile, were opened up, their exploitation presented 
no immediate problems In soil management. Eastern farms 

^witness the fact that agricultural production per worker increased 28% 
between 1919 and 1929 (largely due to a 100% increase in available power 
per worker) and the steady growth of herd-improvement, corn-growers', 
poultry-breeders', and other associations. 



38 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

suffered under the pressure of this new competition, which 
left them still less margin for investment in better farming. 
Millions of abandoned acres in the East, and the drought- 
scourged great plains,^ should signalize the end of laissez- 
faire farming in America. 

Farming at Potential Capacity. It is not difficult to 
envisage a correctly functioning farm plant. Before sub- 
mitting a blueprint, however, let us look more closely at the 
four main agronomy crops : corn, wheat, oats, and cotton. In 
1929, they covered two out of every three acres harvested 
and required a tremendous input of labor and power. Poten- 
tial yields per acre demand careful scrutiny and ample 
documentary support. The volume of material used for 
reference (data from state experiment stations, the U. S. 
Department of Agriculture, farm associations, authorita- 
tive literature, and varied private sources) is too extensive 
to list here. 

The figure of potential corn yield, 64 bushels per acre, Is 
based upon data covering ten states (Illinois, Missouri, 
Nebraska, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Alabama, Ken- 
tucky, Michigan, and Mississippi). The average long-time 
yields (three to fifteen years) of many areas were averaged 
to reach this final figure. Good practical farming methods 
are assumed; crop rotation, return of manure (where avail- 
able), and the use of 400 pounds per acre of 4-8-4 fertilizer^ 
on those acres that are at present deficient in nitrogen, 
phosphorus, and potassium. 

Comparison with the results achieved by many farmers 
shows that 64 bushels is a conservative estimate. The state 

* Eastern Montana, southwestern North Dakota, western South Dakota, 
Nebraska, and Kansas; eastern Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico, 
and a part of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. 

^This analysis will vary with soil requirements, but fertilization is "eco- 
nomical" on quite productive lands. Thus nine Illinois soil groups making 
an average of 47 bushels per acre untreated, showed an average increase of 
18.7 bushels from the use of 800 lbs. of lime, 4CX3 lbs. of rock phosphate 
and 200 lbs. of Kainite. 



AGRICULTURE 39 

average of the Indiana and the Iowa corn-growers' associa- 
tions is 78 bushels per acre. Commercial hybrids have yielded 
as much as 156 bushels. The record corn yield is 256 bushels. 
With a corn requirement of 3,080,465,000 bushels, this 
amount could be grown on 48,132,000 acres, releasing 55,- 
771,000 low-yield acres. 

In estimating the wheat "potential," data from ten states 
(Missouri, Kentucky, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kansas, 
Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Montana, and Idaho), were com- 
bined in reaching the average, 27 bushels per acre. Four hun- 
dred pounds of 2-12-6 fertilizer is the assumed application. 
The average yield of the check (untreated) areas was 15 
bushels per acre — the 1928-32 U. S. average being 14.4 
bushels — an indication of the basic soundness of these long- 
time cropping tests. Thus, the average unit increase actually 
obtained (11.9 bu.) is clearly applicable to wheat areas of 
the United States in general. For better seed selection, 0.7 
bushels has been added. ^ 

Wheat yields of 43, ^6, 64, 75 bushels are frequently ob- 
tained. The average production in Denmark is above 40 
bushels. Idaho farms have exceeded 90 bushels, with yields 
known in excess of 120 bushels. The relatively low potential 
reflects the fact that much of our wheat is grown under semi- 
arid conditions, where available moisture is a limiting fac- 
tor. The budget requirement, 41,496,380,000 pounds, can 
be produced on 25,615,000 acres, releasing 28,656,000 low- 
yield acres. 

The potential capacity to produce oats is 5 i bushels per 
acre.^ Space limitations forbid even a brief discussion of this 
figure. The methods of calculation are substantially those 
outlined above. Thus, after deducting 8,074,000 acres (for 

^ Indiana and Michigan "variety" tests give an average increase of more 
than 10% for the three best-yielding wheats over the average of all se- 
lected wheats. 

^ The Ohio Experiment Station, in a letter to the author dated April 13, 
1934, estimates that good farming practice in that state would raise the 
average yield to 52.5 bushels per acre. 



40 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

mechanization) the budget requirement is 17,156,000 acres 
— nearly 21 milHon under 1929. 

The Cotton Potential. Few monarchs have ruled with 
such an iron hand as King Cotton, The dominance of one 
cash crop, cotton, has prevented a balanced agriculture in 
the Southern States — only an immense supply of cheap labor, 
and relatively deep and fertile soils, could sustain an econ- 
omy so devoted to a single "soil-mining" crop. Though the 
boll weevil must share the blame, it is a significant fact that 
average production has fallen from 184.9 pounds per acre 
in the decade 1 890-1 900, to 154.8 in the ten-year period 
ending in 1929. 

Quite naturally, then, the cotton potential seems compara- 
tively high, 400 pounds per acre. Yet no crop has been studied 
more carefully. Data covering six states were examined: 
Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, North and South Carolina, 
and Texas. Six hundred pounds per acre of 4-8-4 fertilizer 
are recommended. Tests of 22 Mississippi soil areas may be 
instanced as showing that this rate of application is highly 
practical. Eight soils (untreated), yielding within 25% of 
the state average, required 3.6 pounds of fertilizer to pro- 
duce a pound increase of lint; 7 soil areas (untreated) yield- 
ing 25% less than the state average, required 3.7 pounds 
per pound of lint Increase; 7 soil areas, exceeding the state 
average by 25% or more, required 3.3 pounds per pound in- 
crease. 

In 1929, the average cost of fertilizer per pound applied 
to cotton was 1.5^. The farm price of cotton lint was 16.4?^ 
per pound. Six hundred pounds of 4-8-4 fertilizer were ap- 
plied in each instance. (In 1929, only 18,182,000 acres of 
cotton received any commercial fertilizer. The average ap- 
plication was 266 pounds per acre.) 

By dropping 32,233,000 low-yield acres from the provi- 
sional allotment of 54,633,000 acres given in Table XII, the 



AGRICULTURE 4 1 

budget requirement of 8,959,800,000 pounds of lint can be 
produced on 22,400,000 acres. 

The Hay Potential. Without direct fertilization or 
other treatment beyond Hming to correct soil acidity, the in- 
dicated hay yield Is 2.1 tons per acre. The calculated increase 
(63%) is based on tests in five states where the check areas 
produced an average of 1.19 tons, which compares with the 
1928-32 U. S. average of 1.28 tons. 

Data are available which indicate that other crops (rye, 
sorghums, etc.) entering the suggested rotation would show 
large yield Increases. These have not been calculated with 
sufficient accuracy to warrant setting a definite potential. The 
1929 average yields are assumed in land-utilization figures 
given in Table XIII. 

Table XIII 
Land Utilization with Main Agronomy Crops Yielding at Potential Capacity 

(coo Omitted) 

Items 1929 Acres Potential Acres 
Grains 

Corn 97,806 48,132 

Wheat 62,671 25,116 

Oats 38,148 17.156 

Others 24,539 23,793 

Sub-Total 223,164 114,197 

Hay 70,603 124,382* 

Cotton 45>793 22,400 

All Others 34.772 33. 218 

Grand Total 374.332 294,197 

Grass Seeds 3.877 6,000 

* Hay and semi-permanent pasture. 

Agrobiology and the Farm Plant. Recent findings of 
agrobiology are outside the scope of this survey, but the im- 
plications behind such research are too far-reaching to be 
neglected entirely. Very briefly, such studies present the pro- 
ductive capacities inherent in farm plants under optimum 



42 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

conditions for growth. By empirical methods it is calculated 
that 318 pounds of nitrogen may be taken (and usefully ab- 
sorbed) from one soil acre by the most powerful plants^ 
during a single growing season. Using this figure as a numeri- 
cal constant for all plants, extreme limits of productivity are 
calculated — based upon the actual nitrogen content of each 
plant. Thus corn, containing about 1.2% nitrogen (dry 
weight) has an indicated yield maximum of 26,500 pounds, 
42% representing clean grain, or approximately 225 bushels. 
Applying the same formulae to other field crops establishes 
the ultimate yields. It is interesting to list the more important 
ones, together with the approximate acreages each would 
occupy in meeting the budget. 

Table XIV 

Land Utilization at Perultimate Yields 

(Acres required for Grains and Cotton to meet Budget) 

Perultimate Acres Required for 

Yield Budget at Per- 

Item 1929 Acres per Acre ultimate Yields 

Corn 97,806,000 225 bu. 13,700,000 

Wheat 62,671,000 171 bu. 4,045,000 

Oats 38,148,000 395 bu. 2,208,000 

Cotton 45,793,000 4.6 bales 3,800,000 

Such calculations assume farm control of both moisture 
supply and fertility and in some cases assume a power of 
growth beyond the most prolific varieties which plant breed- 
ers have produced so far. Whether these maxima are ever 
fully reached is unimportant. The arresting fact is that 
American agriculture has operated at a very low level of 
efiiciency, and that ample technical knowledge exists today 
for raising unit capacities enormously. This new technique 
is already being applied by many farmers and the long trend 
is unmistakably toward high-unit production. 

Regional results, which bear this out, are obscured by 

^The most "powerful" plants are those varieties of any Riven species which 
achieve the calculated maximum of growth — i.e., usefully absorb and re- 
tain in combination as part of their physical structure 318 pounds of nitrogen 
per acre. 



AGRICULTURE 43 

nation-wide averages where the extensive methods of most 
western farming are reflected in low per-acre yields. New 
England potato culture affords an excellent example. Per- 
acre yields in this area have risen from 85 bushels in 1885-89 
to 155 for the five-year period 1925-29, against an average 
for the entire country of 121 bushels. 

High-unit yields mean decreased costs for labor, seed, 
and farm equipment, and in the absence of unexploited fer- 
tile areas, competition will inevitably force the adoption 
of more and more intensive methods. Paralleling this de- 
velopment enormous areas of marginal land must either be 
withdrawn from crop production or furnish hopelessly in- 
adequate returns. 

Thus, the entire question of farm capacity, no matter how 
considered, appears as a series of interrelated productive 
factors. There is no problem of under-capacity, either for 
individual items or in toto,^ but a wide field of inquiry is 
open to those who would define the political steps which 
will lead to a balanced, functioning agriculture. 

In summation, then, very definite conclusions may be 
drawn from this survey of our agricultural plant. We dis- 
cover that past production has readily kept pace with na- 
tional demands for food and the raw materials of clothing, 
as limited by effective purchasing power. When this produc- 
tion is compared with the per-capita requirements for a 
liberal diet, quite striking discrepancies are revealed. 
Cereals, sugars, and fats have been produced in excess, con- 
cealing — where they could not offset — shortages in the sup- 

^Both lack of space and the absence of comprehensive data on farm labor 
prevent a full discussion of this phase. Suffice it to say that man-power is 
fully available to meet the Budget with 1929 unit yields prevailing. (Wit- 
ness the opinion expressed in "Recent Social Trends" that an increase of 33% 
per worker in agricultural production "seems wholly possible.") Tremen- 
dous reduction in man-power requirements is implicit in farm mechanization 
and in operations carried on at potential-yield levels. Thus experiment- 
station data from five wheat-growing states indicate an average labor input 
of 15 man-hours per acre of wheat. At "potential capacity" 25,6i5,cxxj 
wheat acres represent a labor saving over 1929 of more than 43 million 
man-days. For corn, the equivalent figure is roughly 175 million man-days. 



44 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

ply of milk products, green vegetables, poultry, and lean 
meat. 

It is equally clear that this disproportion can be corrected 
without involving additional improved acreage or forcing 
American farmers to adopt uncongenial methods of produc- 
tion. Moreover, the time required to make these changes is 
certainly not greater than the interval which will be needed 
to guide our population to proper eating habits. As these are 
developed under an educational campaign and the demand 
for milk, butter, eggs, fruits, etc. expands, our farms will 
unquestionably maintain a supply which will prove ample. 

In spite of relatively backward technical methods and un- 
coordinated production, our agricultural resources have al- 
ways been more than adequate for a rapidly growing 
population. Today, with modern knowledge and equipment at 
hand, this vital activity opens wide the gateway to an era of 
genuine abundance. 

William B. Smith 



CHAPTER III 

FOREST PRODUCTS 

Timber. The wood, or forest-products, Industries stand 
in a unique position in our national economy, since forest 
timber, the raw material, may be considered as both a recur- 
rent and a non-recurrent resource. 

Had the timber been scientifically cut and not recklessly 
wasted, the continental United States would have contained 
sufficient standing timber to supply many times the present 
annual national need for wood. As reasonable forest conser- 
vation and replacement procedures were not followed, we 
today find ourselves in a position where the 1929 rate of cut 
cannot be maintained. 

The forests of the United States are estimated to have 
originally occupied 822,000,000 acres. In 1929, there re- 
mained^ 138,000,000 acres of virgin forest; 250,000,000 
acres bearing "culled," "second-growth," or trees too small 
to cut; and 81,000,000 acres of burned or "logged-off" land. 
This indicates that some 353,000,000 acres of the original 
forests have been removed from the forest category and pre- 
sumably placed under cultivation, leaving 469,000,000 acres 
available for use as producing forest. 

For any consideration of the future wood supply, the rela- 
tion between the annual removal of timber from the forests 
and the annual growth of timber is complicated by the un- 
predictable effect of reforestation now under way. An esti- 
mate^ of the present annual growth Is presented in Table I. 

Neglecting the effects of reforestation and improved for- 
estry, the nation can, without ultimately destroying our pres- 

^TariflE Readjustment, 1929, "Hearings," Vol. XV, Washington, D. C. 
"Ibid. 

45 



46 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table I 
Area Available for Forestry Development in the United States 

Area Utilized Annual Growth 
(Acres) (Cubic Feet) 

Present Forests 250,000,000 6,039,000,000 

Present Forests under crude development. . . . 331 ,000,000* 10, 146,000,000 
Present Forests, under crude development, 

ultimate (including virgin forests) 469,000,000 13,878,000,000 

Present Forests, under intensive development 

(including virgin forests) 469,000,000 27,408,000,000 

Annual Cut 
Virgin Forests 138,000,000 10,747,000,000 

* "Crude development" includes the draining of swamps, etc., which at present 
renders certain acreage unavailable. 

ent forests, count on an annual production of only 6,039,000,- 
000 cubic feet of timber for lumber, paper pulp, cordwood, 
timber and all other wood products. This is only 35% of 
our present annual total timber disappearance (or require- 
ments), and the remaining 65%, or 10,747,000,000 cubic 
feet, is now drawn from our dwindling supply of virgin tim- 
ber, thereby reducing the possibilities of future timber sup- 
ply. Obviously, reforestation is a national necessity. 

The foregoing figures of annual growth of forests indi- 
cate that, if the uses of wood existing in 1929 are to be con- 
tinued at the present rate — though not increased except as 
population increases — it will be necessary for the nation to 
place the whole cut-over and virgin-forest area remaining 
available (469,000,000 acres) under intensive development. 
Such development necessitates not only reforestation of the 
cut-over and burned-over land, and elsewhere as needed, but 
also demands application of the best forestry methods to the 
existing stands of timber. 

Should the 1929 forest drain be continued without this in- 
tensive development, it can only result ultimately in the total 
destruction of our American forests. Considering saw timber 
only (other uses such as pulp, fuel, and chemical, can be 
supplied from the younger trees which are not suitable for 
saw timber), there remains a virgin stand of 1,346 billion 



FOREST PRODUCTS 47 

board feet/ approximately equal to 366 billion cubic feet. 
The present drain of timber of saw timber quality approxi- 
mates 10 billion cubic feet annually. 

These figures indicate that, should saw timber be drawn 
wholly from virgin stands and not in part from second growth 
(as is actually the case at present), and should we continue 
using the same quantity of wood as we do now, the virgin 
timber of the United States would disappear in about forty 
years. 

The possibilities of afforestation will not be considered 
here in detail. Undoubtedly, there will be considerable exten- 
sion of the movement to retire marginal farm lands by plant- 
ing them to forest. The ultimate result of this will be to add 
an indefinite but large area to the 469,000,000 acres of ex- 
isting forest, which will make available an additional supply 
of timber some fifty to sixty years hence. 

Table II 

1929 Timber Drain on the Forests of the United States 

Production 

Use Cubic feet Value 

Timber used by sawmills 7 » 733 » 775 > 000 ^459,622,223 

Firewood 4,002,635,000 254,607,612 

Posts, ties, masts, poles, hewn-timber ties, etc. 1 ,560, 199,000 86,466,229 

Pulp-wood 588,666,000 58,531,060 

Veneer logs 230,607,000 5,520,732 

Cooperage industry 302,699,000 7,246,614 

Manufacturing industries 156,575,000 3,748,406 

Shingle mills 138,558,000 3>3I7j079 

Excelsior 20,943,000 501,375 

Wood-Distillation industry 36,367,000 870,626 

Tanning Extract industry 26,173,000 626,582 

Total 14,797,197,000 $881,058,538 

Imports (added) 63,800,000 17,708,000 

Exports (subtracted) 138,645,000 15,287,000 

Total used in United States. 14,722,352,000 ?883,479,538 

Destroyed by fire, pests, etc 1,810,899,000 

Total forest drain, 1929 16,533,251,000 

^ Senate Document No. 12, "A National Plan for American Forestry," 
I933> Washington, D. C. (In converting timber stands, which are estimated 
in cubic feet, into the equivalent board feet of lumber they would yield, the 
U. S. Forest Service uses a factor of 5.46 for soft-wood lumber and 4.13 
for hard-wood lumber.) 



4^ REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

During the period 1919-29, the timber removal from our 
forests, by use and waste, has averaged slightly over 16 bil- 
lion cubic feet per annum. In 1929, this production and its 
value were as given in Table 11.^ 

Manufactured Wood Products. The production of 
wood products and products for which wood is the raw ma- 
terial, such as pulp and tanning extract, cannot be rightly 
considered without notice of the increasing use of substitute 
materials. In twenty-five years the per-capita use of lumber 
has, roughly, been cut in half. This trend continues and 
should be borne in mind. 

The 1929 production and value of the principal products 
made from wood, according to the reports of the Census 
of Manufacturers, is shown in Table III. 

Table III 
1929 Primary Output of Wood Manufactures 

Product Production Value 

Lumber 36,886,032 M ft. b. m. ^993, 738,084 

Lath 1,705,858 (1000 pieces) 5,905,524 

Shingles 6,110,657 (1000 pieces) 18,018,588 

veTe"'';:::;:::::::::::::::: :::;:::::;::::;:::;:::: } -7,8.9,785- 

Boxes (except cigar boxes) 370,878 M cu. ft, 135,025,675 

Planing mill products. 1,566,417 M cu. ft. 553i583.498 

Baskets, rattan, and willow ware 

(not including furniture) 36,875 M cu. ft. 22,851,043 

Cork products 201,000,000 lbs. cork 23,034,329 

Total $1,959,976,526 

* Production quantities of cooperage and veneer, as given in the Census of 
Manufactures, cannot be separated. 

The above table does not include products of the wood- 
distillation and tanning-extract industries, which are included 
in the study of chemicals; nor the products of the wood- 
preserving industry, which is a chemical treatment applied 
to poles, ties, and timbers (products of the wood-preserving 

^ Senate Document No. 12, 



FOREST PRODUCTS 49 

industry, valued at $190,000,000 in 1929); nor paper 
pulp. 

In 1929, products made from the above partially finished 
materials (but not including furniture which is considered 
separately) had the values shown in Table IV. 

Table IV 
1929 Secondary Output of Wood Manufactures* 

Product Production Value 

Billiard Tables, Bowling Alleys, etc ^8,821,363 

Cigar Boxes 12,459,425 

Lasts and Related Products 48,941 M ft. b. m. 7>689,555 

Matches and Toothpicks 20,351,025 

Mirror and Picture Frames 19,237,897 

Models and Patterns (except paper) .... 30, 188 M ft. b. m. 30,621 ,000 

Ice Boxes and Accessories 127,553 M ft. b. m. 60,483,000 

Papier Mache, Vulcanized Fiber, etc 27,219,892 

Window and Door Screens, etc 24,451 ,700 

Handles, other turned wood, etc 97 > 257 M cu. ft. 69,619,900 

Total ^280,954,757 

* Source: Census of Manufactures, 1929. 

Furniture production, which was valued at $948,000,000, 
in 1929, is increasingly less dependent upon lumber as a raw 
material. Hence, although the furniture industry has a ca- 
pacity twice as great as the 1929 production, and though this 
capacity will be utilized if we undertake the new construction 
to meet the existing housing needs, ^ no great increase in the 
wood supply is needed for a full utilization of our furniture- 
manufacturing facilities. Steel, aluminum, alloys, plastics, 
and various combinations of materials are being increasingly 
used as wood substitutes. Any likely restriction of the supply 
of lumber will not prove to be a "bottleneck" to the furniture 
manufacturer. 

The same remarks hold true for most other non-construc- 
tion lumber uses. Cigar boxes can be made of tin plate or 
paper-board. Metal picture and mirror frames can be as 
decorative as wood, and have a longer life. Metal door and 

^ See Chapter X, "Construction." 



50 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

window frames, screen frames, moldings, all are increasingly 
popular. Metal ice-boxes are superseding the old-time wooden 
box. The paper match is now general, and though made from 
wood-pulp, constitutes no serious drain on our high-grade 
timber. Past experience with a continually decreasing supply 
of wood has already prompted manufacturers to provide sub- 
stitutes that assure against any restriction in consumer goods 
due to a lack of wood as a raw material. 

Any consideration of American capacity to produce lum- 
ber and other manufactured wood products must be based 
on the strictly limited supply of timber available from the 
forests. As no one can accurately foresee the results of re- 
forestation activities now under way, or the changes in de- 
mand caused by substitution trends at present evident, it is 
impossible to forecast with any accuracy what the timber 
supply may be a generation hence. 

What we do know about capacity is that, all other con- 
siderations aside, we can continue the 1929 drain on our 
forests for another thirty-year period. As already cited, this 
drain averaged 16 billion cubic feet of timber each year, for , 
the ten-year period 1920-29. Approximately 6 billion cubic \ 
feet of this total included the wood used by the paper and 
chemical industries, firewood, and the waste through fire and 
pest. The remainder, about 10 billion cubic feet, represents 
the timber that forms the raw material for the lumber mills 
and other wood-product plants. Hence, the consumption in i 
1929 of 9,886,000,000 cubic feet by the lumber and other 
wood-products industries, would indicate that these industries 
were operating at 98.8 per cent of the capacity possible for I 
the next thirty years. 

From a machinery standpoint, trends In this Industry Indi- 
cate that wood-products plants operated at close to machine 
capacity on the single-shift basis in 1929. The total machine 
capacity of the industry has been decreasing for some time. J 
In 19 19 there were some 33,000 lumber and sawmill estab- 1 



FOREST PRODUCTS 5 I 

lishments, while in 1929 this number had decreased to 19,000 
(of which about 57% were obsolete). There was a trend 
toward larger units, but this in no way compensated for the 
loss in machine capacity. This was accompanied by a reduc- 
tion of 75,000 wage earners. 

On a two-shift basis (the highest level of operation safe 
to assume while still providing amply for maintenance and 
other unavoidable non-operating time) the capacity is twice 
the 1929 production. However, any such figure has little 
meaning, since the only way in which we could obtain raw 
material for such a continuous output would be to import 
from Russia or from one of the few other heavily forested 
regions. Importation of timber in large quantities is not feasi- 
ble because of the bulk and relatively low value of the ma- 
terial. Imports of wood products will necessarily continue, 
as at present, but will be largely confined to rare woods such 
as mahogany and teak from the tropics, or to finished or semi- 
finished products such as wood-pulp from Sweden. 

No attempt has been made to estimate our requirements 
for wood if we are to supply an adequate standard of liv- 
ing to the population. This is because our supply is strictly 
limited, and because we can depend for expansion upon the 
use of substitute materials. 

For necessary lumber for residential construction, the 
budget requirement is 12,200,000,000 feet board measure. 
As 36,000,000,000 feet board measure was the production 
for 1929, there is evidently ample wood for this purpose, if 
steel and other substitute materials are used to satisfy other 
fields — such as heavy construction, concrete-form work, and 
boat building — now dependent upon lumber. 

Graham L. Montgomery 



CHAPTER IV 

MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 

It needs no extensive acquaintance with the rise of civili- 
zation to recognize the essential part the minerals have 
played in man's history. No one knows now whether hus- 
bandry or stone working was developed first, but together 
they made possible a settled community life and such social 
progress as has been achieved. 

Of these two, mineral development is perhaps the more 
important to civilization. It is conceivable that man could 
have made some progress in agriculture without rising much 
above the primitive level, but his distinguishing charac- 
teristic, that of being a tool user, probably rests on the re- 
covery of metals. 

But, in all likelihood, the stage of stone working existed 
for millenniums before the first metals were utilized. Man 
since then has made progress at a relatively accelerated pace, 
until about 150 years ago, when the Industrial Revolution 
initiated the "machine age," which is totally dependent upon 
the mineral products — iron, copper, zinc, and the like — for 
the essential materials of machine construction. 

Minerals can be considered as falling into two broad gen- 
eral classes: //, metals and B, non-metals (including fuels, 
which are, however, treated separately in Chapter V ) . Table 
I gives the production, production value, production capacity, 
and reserves of the important items of both classes. 

The deposits of raw material for the mineral industry are, 
for the most part, ample for all present needs. However, it 
should be kept in mind that ore bodies are wasting assets. 
Once mined, they are irreplaceable. Conservation of these 

52 



MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 

Table I 

Minerals — 1929 

(000 Omitted) 



53 



REPt AS Iron ore. 



wst 

WS 

WS 

WS 

REP 

WS 

REP 



53 Molybdenum 

S3 Titanium 

S3 Vanadium 

S3 Chromium 

131 A High-grade manganese . 

45 Copper 

43 Lead 



Produc- Value Capac- 
tion* at Mine ity* 
73,028 $197,334 80,000 

i,gS2 .2,259 3,000 
No published figures 
No published figures 
None mined in 1929 
60 1,612 300 

1,006 283,517 1,030 
672 67,561 700 



WS 
REP 



WS 



61 Zinc 725 

38 Gold (oz.) 2,208 

47 Silver (oz.) 61,327 



WS 49 Mercury (flasks) 24,000 

REP 117 Aluminum 112 



44,866 
26,107 



REP 67 Bauxite... 
REP 129 Antimony. 



366 
3 



2,820 26,000 
31,000 200 



2,455 
548 



REP 109 Nickel None 

WS 76 Platinum (oz.) 47,977 



WS 74 Tin None 

WS 78 Arsenic 14,546 



3,064 



WS 



76 Cadmium . 



Reserves 

2.3 billion long tons (Lake 
Superior only) 

Ample 

Mainly import 

Mainly import 

Import 

Limited — mainly import 

Ample 

Limited — 29% of con- 
sumption is "second- 
ary," or reclaimed from 
scrap 

Ample 

Limited — much is by- 
product of other metals 

82% is by-product of 
other metals 

Limited — 38% imported 

14% of consumption im- 
ported — 27% "second- 
ary" 

Limited — 50% imported 

By-product of lead — 14,- 
435 tons imported, 11,- 
131 tons "secondary" 

All imported 

Domestic production is all 
"secondary" and equals 
25% of consumption 

Imported 

By-product of Lead. Re- 
serves are ample and 
quickly expansible 

Limited 



* Long tons, unless otherwise noted, 
t "REP" means N.S.P.P.C. report. 



X "WS" means N.S.P.P.C. worksheet. 



reserves, and economy In the use of metals, are precautions 
necessary to the protection of future generations. 

Reserves of ores of the grades at present being mined are 
limited, but ore that was not considered worth mining twenty 
years ago has since been found valuable because the methods 
of ore treatment have been Improved. Some forty years from 
now, when Iron-ore bodies now being mined become ex- 
hausted, It Is certain that other methods for economical 
extraction of Iron from the huge deposits of low-grade ores 
will have been perfected. In other cases, substitutes for metals 
now used will have been developed and adopted long before 
scarcity becomes apparent. 

Another factor to be considered In connection with the 



54 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table Ia 

Minerals — 1929 

(000 Omitted) 

Produc- Value Capac- 
tion* at Mine ity* Reserves 

WSJ 40 Limestone 100,686 

WS 40 Granite 10,827 

WS 40 Basalt 14,872 

WS 40 Marble SS4 

WS 40 Sandstone S , 7QO 

WS 40 Misc. stone 8,380 

WS 69 Slate 670 $11, 24s 779 Ample 

WS 73 Clay (for sale only) 4,347 14,851 4,770 Ample. Some imports of 

kaolin 

WS 41 Sand 99,253 60,801 — Ample 

WS 41 Gravel 123,319 72,035 — Ample 

WS 63 Gypsum 5, 016 S,740 S.95o Ample 

WS 54 Abrasives 145 3,381 165 Adequate 

WS 58 Asbestos 3 350 4.7 99% imported 

WS 57 Asphalt (natural) 804 5,467 1,022 Adequate, with residuum 

asphalt 

WS 59 Barytes 276 1 , 840 296 Limited 

WS 60 Feldspar 198 1,277 228 Ample 

Fluorspar 146 2,791 176 Ample 

WS 64 Fuller's earth 316 4,310 — Unlimited 

WS 42 Magnesite 188 1,501 218 Ample; considerable im- 
port 

WS 43 Mica 7 404 9 Ample 

WS 68 Phosphate rock (long tons) 3,822 13,376 4,075 Ample 

WS 70 Silica 428 4,645 462 Ample 

WS 67 Sulphur 2,362 42,042 2,600 Ample 

REPt 127A Pyrites 333 1,250 By-product 

WS 72 Salt 8,544 27,335 — Ample 

WS 75 Talc (sales) 220 2,629 236 Ample 

WS 71} Miscellaneous 34,354 

* Short tons, unless otherwise noted, 
t "REP" means N.S.P.P.C. report. 
t "WS" means N.S.P.P.C. worksheet. 

supply of mineral raw materials is that certain of these, such 
as nickel, tin, and cobalt, at present necessary in our econ- 
omy, are totally or partially lacking in the United States. 
Ample reserves of these products exist elsewhere in the 
Americas and in Asia. At present, imports supply all our 
needs. 

In addition to the mineral reserves of the United States 
and those of other countries upon which the United 
States can draw, "secondary" metal, reclaimed from scrap, 
provides a large and constantly increasing reservoir of 
many metals. In a like manner, second-hand building stone 
and similar mineral products can be used for many 
purposes. 

Metallic iron is destroyed by rust, and zinc and lead in 
the form of paint cannot be reclaimed; but the total quantity 



MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 55 

of articles in use — such as machinery, lead-covered cables, 
lead batteries, and copper wire — has steadily Increased, giv- 
ing us a constantly greater tonnage of equipment that has 
become obsolete and therefore available for remelting for 

Table II 

Influence of Scrap Metal 

Production of Metals from Domestic Ores. Total Net Import and Consumption of Scrap. 

(Short tons — ooo Omitted) 

Metallic Aluminum Metallic Copper 

Net "Sec- Ratio of Net "Sec- Ratio of 

Do- Im- ond- "Secondary" Do- Im- ond- "Secondary" 

Year mestic ports ary" to Domestic mestic ports ary" to Domestic 

IQ26 72* 22 44 .61 870 g3t 480 .56 

IQ27 80 24 46 .57 842 laot 4go .58 

ig28 10s II 48 .45 gi3 iSgt 53^ -59 

ig29 112 14 48 .43 looi i2t 627 .61 

1930 114 3 38 .33 6g7 32 467 .67 

1931 8g 4 30 .34 521 14 347 .67 

1932 42 5 24 -57 272 31 248 .gi 

(Long tons — 000 Omitted) 
Metallic Lead Metallic Tin 

Net "Sec- Ratio of Net "Sec- Ratio of 

Do- Im- ond- "Secondary" Do- Im- ond- "Secondary" 

Year mestic ports ary" to Domestic mestic ports ary" to Domestic 

ig26 680 76t 277 .41 o 78 43 

ig27 668 36 276 .41 o 72 46 

ig28 626 3g 3og .49 o 80 36 

1929 672 4g 311 .46 o 8g 31 

1930 S74 30 256 .45 o 80 16 

1931 3go 31 235 .60 o 65 9 

1932 255 9 198 .78 o 35 6 

* More than 50% of domestic production is from imported ore. 

t Export exceeded import. 

j Department of Commerce figures. 

Iron Ore Used Scrap Used Scrap Used 

per ton of per ton of per ton of 

Year Pig Iron Pig Iron Steel Produced 

(Long tons) (Short tons) (Short tons) 

1926 1.763 0.165 0.18s 

1927 1.765 0.179 0.1S7 

1928 1.747 0.180 0.282 

1929 1.750 0.178 0.243 

1930 1.730 0.203 o.ig4 

ig3i 1.652 0.210 o.28g 

1932 1.496 0.256 0.359 

Production 

(Short tons — 000 Omitted) 

Steel from 

Year Steel Pig Iron Scrap 

1926 48,294 39.373 8,g2i 

1927 44.935 36,566 8,375 

1928 5i,.S44 38,156 13,388 

1929 56,433 42,614 13.719 

1930 4o,6gg 31.752 7.947 

1931 25,g45 18,426 7,515 

1932 13,681 8,781 4,900 

Note: In i92g, The Bureau of the Census showed a consumption of 41,462,214 tons of pig iron and 
37,127,848 tons of scrap in the steel industry, including the pig iron industry. 



S6 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

the reclamation of the contained metals. The importance of 
this "secondary" metal as an addition to the supply can be 
seen from Table II. 

Even more striking are the published figures of The Bu- 
reau of the Census for 1929, which show that, in the blast- 
furnace and steel industry (exclusive of iron and steel manu- 
factured by automobile makers) 41,000,000 tons of pig iron 
and 37,000,000 tons of scrap were consumed. It is likely 
that, if a sudden expansion of metal production becomes 
necessary, the supply of scrap now on hand could take care 
of the increase until mines and plants were enlarged and 
developed. 

Labor supply is a possible limiting factor in mineral pro- 
duction and must be considered along with reserves of ore 
and the necessary mining plant. While minerals that can be 
extracted mainly by mechanical means constitute a large per- 
centage of the total, many important minerals exist only in 
underground deposits and must be worked by underground 
operations. In this underground work, the tonnage per miner 
has materially increased through the use of machines, and 
additional mechanization is to be expected. However, any 
material increase in the output of metals could only be had 
by increasing the number of men employed. 

In this matter of labor, the soft-coal industry is at present 
over-manned. Experience shows, unfortunately, that these 
surplus workers could not be transferred en masse to "hard- 
rock" mines because most of them do not make good 
hard-rock miners. The supply of foreign miners which has 
furnished the majority of miners in many districts, notably 
the Lake Superior iron ranges, is not now available as it 
was in the past. 

A miner's work is hard and, unless he is carefully trained, 
dangerous. New men cannot be trained in a short time and 
it can be definitely stated that the output of underground 
mines is limited by the available labor supply. This limitation 



MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 57 

is not effective in the case of stone quarrying, nor for ores 
mined by quarrying or "open-pit" work, nor for other opera- 
tions where the use of large equipment will yield an increase 
of output with the same or less labor. 

Obsolescence is not an important factor in the supply of 
ores and other raw-material products. The majority of large 
mines and quarries use modern equipment, for which replace- 
ments to any great extent are not at present needed. The 
tendency has been steadily towards a consolidation of the 
control and ownership of mining properties. As a result, it 
has been possible to install the most efficient machinery, and 
to replace equipment promptly as new processes or machin- 
ery have been perfected. 

Each mineral has individual characteristics of occurrence, 
treatment, and use which affect its availability. Therefore, 
the most important are here considered individually, par- 
ticularly the metal-smelting and refining industries. 

Iron and Steel. Major production of iron ore is now, 
and for several years to come will be, from the Lake Superior 
region in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The reserves 
of ore of the grade now being used are fairly well known 
and the end of these ores can be rather definitely forecast. 
These reserves are estimated to be around 2.3 billion long 
tons and will last from thirty to forty years. 

The generally unknown and interesting factor in the Lake 
Superior district is the possible utilization of the reserves of 
ore containing about thirty-five per cent iron (more than the 
present European ores) but in a condition that, under meth- 
ods known at present, does not permit its use. 

The ore at present shipped from the Lake Superior region 
is steadily decreasing in grade, and an increasing amount of 
it must now be "concentrated" before shipping. The mag- 
netite deposits of the eastern Mesaba Range have been 
developed and constitute a large reserve for future exploita- 



58 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

tion. There are no large reserves of magnetite ores in the 
eastern United States. There are, however, large reserves in 
Alabama. In the West, notably in Utah, are considerable re- 
serves, not yet exploited to any marked degree. From the 
standpoint of reserves of ore, there is no limit on the pro- 
duction of iron and steel. 

From the practical standpoint of abihty to operate the 
mines, the Lake Superior district is limited by shipping fa- 
cilities; the southern mines by the increased depth of work- 
ings, and the eastern magnetites by the size of the ore body. 
It seems that our practical capacity to produce iron ore at 
the present time, taking into account the impracticability 
of all-year shipping from the Lake Superior district, is not 
over 80,000,000 long tons per year. At 1.5 tons of ore per 
ton of pig iron, this would give us 53,330,000 tons of pig 
iron. 

The capacity of blast-furnace and steel plants is carefully 
determined each year by the American Iron & Steel Institute. 
This estimate does not include the capacity of plants long 
idle ; nor, on the other hand, does it allow for the unavoidable 
shut-down for repairs nor for the necessary relining of 
furnaces each year. 

Some long-idle plants are capable of being used and there- 
fore it is possible to maintain a production of pig iron close 
to capacity estimates. On account of the dismantling of blast- 
furnace plants during the last four years, capacity to produce 
pig iron is over one million tons less than it was in 1929, but 
our capacity to produce steel has increased by some five mil- 
lion tons. There is, however, little likelihood of a serious 
"bottleneck" to steel production from a lack of pig iron, 
since the scrap-iron market as well as the long-idle (but not 
dismantled) plants could be drawn upon temporarily in case 
of need. The production figures for pig iron and steel are 
sure measures of activity in the steel industry. 

According to census figures, of the 56 million tons of iron 



MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 59 

and steel ingots produced in 1929, only some 7 million tons 
of semi-finished and 40 million tons of rolled-steel products 
were sold, the balance representing remelted scrap consumed 
by the steel plants. 

With regard to plants utilizing rolled steel, available fig- 
ures on capacities are inadequate. Many plants producing 
one article could quickly be converted to make some other 
article. Some steel-product plants, which worked but one shift 
in 1929, could adopt a double shift and double their produc- 
tion. 

The annual report of the Steel Founders Society of Amer- 
ica for 1930 contains the statement that "one of the great 
disturbing factors is the existence of huge excess capacity. 
Operations during 1929 only filled foundries to two-thirds 
noted capacity." The same condition is quite usual in most 
of the industries manufacturing finished goods from steel 
and iron. 

It is therefore conservative to assume that the 1929 ratio 
of steel production to capacity could be applied to the steel- 
products industries, and that the ratio of pig-iron production 
to capacity could be applied to the industries using mainly 
pig iron. This means that since there is ample capacity to 
mine, smelt, and refine iron ore, sufficient iron and steel prod- 
ucts could be manufactured to meet the requirements of the 
American people. 

The most important secondary materials used in mak- 
ing steel and other alloys are manganese, silicon, chromium, 
nickel, beryllium, tungsten, vanadium, and molybdenum. 
Reserves of most of those materials are small or entirely 
lacking in the United States. However, this situation does 
not put any undue limitations upon the supply of alloy steels, 
for only small quantities of these metals are needed and these 
quantities can readily be supplied by importation. 

Copper. The capacity to produce copper from the ore 



6o REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

depends mainly on the milling capacity. During 1929, while 
only one per cent of the mines worked less than 300 days, 
the majority of the mills worked three shifts per day. The 
production of ore in 1929 was close to mine capacity although 
there are other copper deposits where mines could be opened, 
if needed. Additional milling capacity can be quickly secured 
by temporarily overloading the existing mills. 

The United States formerly exported much copper. Ow- 
ing to the development of the large and rich South African 
ore bodies and the construction of refineries abroad, this 
export demand is a thing of the past. Hence the existing 
capacity to mine and refine copper in the United States has 
become more than ample to meet any prospective domestic 
demands. 

Copper-smelter output in the United States approximates 
domestic mine output. The "output of refined copper," which 
is generally quoted, refers to "electrolytic copper" only and 
does not include the fire-refined product (mainly from Michi- 
gan ore), nor the large quantity of copper scrap that does 
not pass through the refineries. Estimates given here of prac- 
tical capacity include 1,200,000 tons of electrolytic copper 
plus 250,000 tons of scrap, plus 200,000 tons of fire-refined 
— a total of 1,650,000 tons.^ 

Lead. The reserves of lead ore in the United States are 
limited and domestic production will probably lessen in the 
near future. Although production could be increased tempo- 
rarily, this increased production could not be maintained. 
Lead production is also affected by the production of the 
ores of copper, zinc, and silver, in which lead is a minor con- 
stituent. This by-product lead may play a larger part in total 
production, particularly if silver mining increases. 

Our capacity to smelt lead is based on an analysis made 
by Mr. W. R. Ingalls and does not include secondary lead, 

'American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 



MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 6 1 

which does not pass through the refineries. This capacity, 
given as 850,000 tons, contrasts with 1,239,000 tons as of 
December 31, 1932, a figure published by the American Bu- 
reau of Metal Statistics and based on the number of furnaces 
reported by operating companies. 

Zinc. Reserves of zinc are ample. The recent introduc- 
tion of "selective flotation" in complex ores, which permits 
the separation of zinc as a zinc concentrate, has converted 
what was a liability into an asset, and has enormously in- 
creased the workable reserves. About twenty per cent of the 
total zinc is mined and consumed as zinc oxide and does not 
appear in the figures of metallic zinc. Like lead, a great deal 
of zinc comes from mixed ores, and hence the total produc- 
tion of this metal is somewhat dependent upon the production 
of silver, lead, and copper. 

Capacity to refine zinc is usually given in terms of retorts, 
but all retorts cannot be used continuously, and many are 
reported obsolete. The introduction, in 1929-30, of con- 
tinuous distillation plants will, in all likelihood, make all the 
older retorts obsolete. The present theoretical annual ca- 
pacity is 932,000 tons of metallic zinc. The probable effective 
capacity, according to Ingalls, is 850,000 tons. Secondary 
zinc is of much less importance in the total supply of this 
metal than are secondary iron, copper, or lead, since much 
zinc is used in forms that do not permit of recovery. 

Aluminum. Production and capacity figures are not avail- 
able in the statistical records, since nearly all American 
aluminum production is the monopoly of a single company, 
and the census does not publish figures disclosing the status 
of a single company. Low electric-power costs are necessary 
for present methods of aluminum production from bauxite, 
the aluminum ore used in present processes of refining. This 
fact has taken the American industry largely into Canada, 



62 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

and retarded its growth in the United States. The United 
States capacity of 200,000 tons per year, given in the table, 
is largely an estimated figure. 

Aluminum is rapidly finding wider uses and the prospective 
demand is increasing as new alloys are developed. How- 
ever, the refining capacity of the world is sufl'icient to permit 
the importation of all that may be needed. Also, though baux- 
ite reserves are distinctly limited, aluminum is a major con- 
stituent of common clay, and, with the imminent perfection 
of a method of extracting aluminum from clay, unlimited 
supplies will become available. 

Borax. Deposits of borax are ample but the capacity to 
reclaim this mineral is limited. The only difficulty in exploit- 
ing the borax deposits of the United States rests in their re- 
moteness from consuming centers. Because of this, much 
borax is imported. No diflficulties, however, need be antici- 
pated with the borax supply. 

Abrasives. Oil stones, whetstones, emery, garnet, pumice, 
and flint are the natural abrasives quarried in the United 
States. There are ample deposits, and the capacity of the 
plants meets all demands, which are decreasing, as the arti- 
ficial abrasives of the silicon-carbide and aluminum-oxide 
types come more into use. 

Asbestos. Very little asbestos occurs in the United States, 
the present supply coming largely from Canada. The world 
supply is limited, but fortunately substitute materials have 
recently been developed, and so the future supply of asbestos 
is not of great importance. 

Graphite. The reserves of graphite are ample for future 
needs. At present, because of lower price, the domestic de- 
mand for graphite is supplied from foreign sources. New 



MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 63 

processes, lately developed, now enable the American deposits 
to compete with imported graphite. 

Building Stone, Sand, Gravel. Ample supplies of a 
great variety of mineral building products, including stone, 
gypsum, lime, magnesite, sand, brick- and fire-clays, and 
gravel are available throughout the United States, and no 
possibility of shortage need be considered. At present the 
existing plant is ample to meet all foreseeable demand. 

For the future, the most important trend that at all af- 
fects the demand for mineral products is the increasing im- 
portance of synthetic organic chemical substitutes. Already 
many small articles, formerly made of metal, are made from 
"plastics," the artificial resin-like product so familiar in foun- 
tain pens and electrical appliances. 

Another trend is toward the substitution of one mineral 
product for another. Concrete supersedes brick and building 
stone. Light, strong alloys of aluminum and copper supplant 
iron and steel. 

These trends do not, however, indicate any shortage of 
mineral products, nor any need for an increase in capacity 
to produce minerals. Ample supplies of both crude and re- 
fined mineral products are available in the United States, or 
can readily be imported to permit the American people to 
realize an adequate standard of living. 

PoMEROY C. Merrill 



CHAPTER V 

FUELS AND ENERGY 

The use of energy from sources other than the human 
body is an outstanding characteristic of our day. For long 
ages man depended upon his muscles. Even when augmented 
by the domesticated animals and the energy of winds and 
falling water, his supply of energy was not sufficient to pro- 
vide the requirements of an industrial civilization in the mod- 
ern sense. In fact, such a civilization did not appear until 
some one hundred and fifty years ago, when a practical steam 
engine and larger and faster machines were introduced. 

The stored energy of fuels converted into mechanical 
energy through the steam boiler and steam engine, supple- 
mented by the energy of falling water, sufficed for the early 
days of the machine age. Some fifty years ago the electric 
dynamo and the electric motor made electricity available. 
Gasoline and oil engines, developed about the same time as 
the electric motor, are supplying an increasing portion of 
our present-day power requirements. 

The growth of the energy supply of our nation is depicted 
on the accompanying chart, Fig. I. Fuels and electrical en- 
ergy are considered separately. 

THE FUELS 

A dependable fuel supply is essential to any modern in- 
dustrial society. The consumer depends upon it for his do- 
mestic heating and cooking. The producer depends upon it 
as a main source of the power that turns the wheels of in- 
dustry. 

The five forms in which fuel is generally used are ( i ) 

64 



FUELS AND ENERGY 




66 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

wood, (2) peat, (3) coal and its products, (4) natural gas, 
and (5) petroleum products. In this section, only coal, gas, 
and petroleum will be treated, since they are the only im- 
portant fuels now utilized in the United States. 

Coal. Coal is a fuel which is basic in its social significance, 
though subject to extremely wide variations in demand. These 
variations are, in large part, traceable to peculiarities innate 
to commercial competition. Into this unstable situation, the 
almost unceasing industrial warfare between miners and 
operators interjects a disturbing force, of uncertain and un- 
predictable magnitude, which continually disturbs the equilib- 
rium of society. 

But even were the most Intelligent management in con- 
trol, and all controversy over wage rates entirely avoided, 
the equilibrium of the industry would be constantly threat- 
ened by the year-to-year improvement in technology. The 
constantly lessening amounts of coal required to perform a 
unit of work create a situation which demands the most in- 
telligent study. Involving, as It does, the future security of 
upwards of half a million wage earners even in such a poor 
coal-mining year as 1932. 

Many other factors, some of which will be touched upon 
later, enter Into this set-up, making It one from which, under 
our present type of economic organization, there seems no 
equitable nor reasonable exit. 

Table I 

Production and Value of Coal* 

Anthracite Value Bituminous Value 

Year (tons) at Mine (tons) at Mine 

1927 80,095,564 ^420,492,000 517. 763. 35^ ^1,029,657,000 

1928 75,348,069 393,638,000 500,744,390 933,774,000 

1929 73,828,195 385,643,000 534.988,593 952,781,000 

1930 69,384,837 354,574,000 467,526,299 795,483,000 

1931 59,645,652 296,355,000 382,089,396 588,895,000 

1932 49,855,221 222,375,000 309,709,872 406,677,000 

1933 49,399,000 327,940,000 

* Source: Worksheet No. i8, N.S.P.P.C. 



FUELS AND ENERGY 67 

The marked drop in the production of both bituminous 
and anthracite coal since 1929 can be gathered from Table I. 
This drop should not be taken merely as a measure of the 
industrial inactivity characteristic of the current depression. 
This downward tendency in coal production can be traced 
as far back as 1926, or even to 19 18, when the all-time pro- 
duction high was attained; but since 19 18, the curve repre- 
senting production has shown a tendency to level off, and the 
curve representing capacity has steadily dropped since 1923. 
It would seem that the mining of coal, as it is now conducted, 
approaches its senescence. But, barring the unexpected de- 
velopment of hitherto unsuspected uses for coal, and assum- 
ing that there will be no increase in the demand for coal to 
heat human dwellings, it is possible that no future demands 
will ever surpass or even equal the 1929 production. 

In that year, 718,537 miners were engaged in the actual 
production of 609,658,000 tons of coal, while in 1932 only 
360,019,000 tons were mined by 527,621 workers. It seems 
fair to assume that the use of raw coal as a source of heat 
(or energy) has passed its peak, and that from now on we 
may anticipate a gradual fall in the rate at which coal need 
be mined in order to keep the members of our society in com- 
fort — at least insofar as extraneous heat for the body is con- 
cerned, or in respect to those needs to which we have become 
accustomed. 

Table II 

Capacity of Coal Mines* 

Number 
Anthracite Bituminous of Active 

Year (tons) (tons) Minesf 

1927 108,000,000 847,000,000 

1928 105,000,000 760,000,000 

1929 100,000,000 752,000,000 6,057 

1930 101,000,000 770,000,000 5.891 

1931 100,000,000 736,000,000 5.642 

1932 94,000,000 653,000,000 

1933 94,000,000 653,000,000 

* Source: Worksheet No. 18, N.S.P.P.C. 

t Exclusive of "wagon mines" producing less than 10,000 tons per year. 



68 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

A partial exhibit of the number of our coal mines as well 
as their ability to produce coal is shown in Table II. The 
lower capacities, shown for years subsequent to 1930, is due 
to the abandonment, or "flooding," of mines because no 
profitable market exists for coal during a depression. 

In this connection it seems apposite to point out that the 
Bureau of Mines says, in its mimeographed sheets covering 
the coal-mining industry for 1933, that "the capacity of 
mines is given as with the existing labor forces working 308 
days a year. . . ." The complete adoption of mechanical 
mining might affect these estimates favorably, while the in- 
stitution of a shorter work-year or work-day would affect 
them adversely. But in any case, and under any economic 
system, there seems no reason to fear a coal shortage. 

The only limit of our national ability to supply our needs 
for coal is to be looked for in the willingness of men to work 
at this dangerous and disagreeable task. Our national 
coal reserves were originally in excess of 1,378 billion tons, 
of which we have consumed to date less than 28 billion, in- 
dicating that if our present rate of consumption were to con- 
tinue, we need expect no shortage until about A.D. 5700. 
Some new and totally unexpected demand for carboniferous 
material may be discovered, but we would still have almost 
unlimited deposits of lignite, as yet untouched. 

Many other factors favorable to the situation exist. 
Among these are : ( i ) the increased efficiency in the conver- 
sion of raw coal in the ground to usable energy; (2) the 
better insulation of dwellings, and (3) the utilization of 
other sources of heat, many of which possess greater flexi- 
bility and, in some cases, even greater efficiency. We will 
consider these separately. 

(i) In 19 19 we were forced to consume 3.20 pounds of 
coal to produce one kilowatt-hour of electric energy, while 
by 1929 this figure had been reduced to 1.62. An almost equal 
gain in efficiency has been shown by other industrial uses of 



FUELS AND ENERGY 69 

coal, as is instanced by the railroads, which in 1927 consumed 
(for Class-I roads only) 115,183,000 tons, but in 1929, the 
year in which railroad transportation was at the peak, con- 
sumed only 113,894,000 tons, and by 1931 demanded but 
81,725,000 tons. This increase in efficiency is clearly illus- 
trated on the graphs. Fig. 2, which are taken from "Coal 
in 1931,"^ pp. 455, 456. At the same time, the introduction 
of coal-undercutting and coal-loading machines has reached 
a point from which the final complete adoption of such 
mechanical methods can be envisioned. 

( 2 ) Increasing technical proficiency and the resulting sur- 
plus of labor make it possible to stop constructing the jerry- 
built homes which characterized the preceding era. Many of 
the houses that were built from the end of the Civil War 
until today were scarcely fit to be called homes for human 
beings. Constructed hastily of unseasoned lumber, they of- 
fered only an ineffectual bar to the heat set free in their 
clumsy heating-stoves or open grates. Modern technology has 
pointed out the lack of economy in this practice, and has made 
detailed studies of the savings that would result if houses 
were adequately insulated and provided with properly de- 
signed central heating plants. 

(3) If and when a better era of home building sets in, un- 
doubtedly we as a people will call for the greater convenience, 
and will demand the by-then-greater economies, of other fuels 
than lump coal. Already, for heating dwellings fuel oil has 
made great inroads upon the demand for coal. The use of 
anthracite small sizes employed in mechanical domestic stok- 
ers, and the wider employment of fuel "briquettes," which 
are made now mainly from culm-bank wastes, mark the drift 
away from the "commercial" higher-cost sizes of both an- 
thracite and bituminous coal. At present full advantage of 
this tendency can be taken only by people having the higher 

^ An annual compilation of coal-mining statistics gathered by the United 
States Geological Survey, U. S. Department of Commerce. 



70 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 



M) 



50 


4.000 



3.000 



2.000 



RA 



LROADFUEL 



gross ton-miles 



1000 - 





- 


— 


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- 


BLAST FURNACE 

Pounds of coking cpa 
per gross ton of pig iro 


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n 































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- 














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^ 


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ELECTRIC POWER 

'oundsofcoal per kilowatt- 
hourcentral stations 


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^mor^cDoo — 





















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3Y-PR0DUCTC0KINC 

oalequivalent, in million tons.0 
le gas.ter and oil recovered 
1 i I 1 I 1 


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Figure i 
Trends in Fuel Efficiency in tiie United States, 1917-1931 



FUELS AND ENERGY 7 1 

incomes, but ultimately, the adoption of these modern tech- 
nological improvements should become general. 

Even the adoption of electric heating may be looked for, if 
house insulation is perfected and adequate central station 
capacity is built. 

The crude method of shoveling lump coal onto the grates 
of a boiler has given way to the utilization in steam genera- 
tors of pulverized coal, and this present method will un- 
doubtedly yield to even more scientific methods as the 
technique of using coal develops. The Diesel type of internal- 
combustion engine develops power at about thirty-four per 
cent thermal efficiency, which is ten points above the best 
attainment of a steam-generator-prime-mover combination. 
Experiments have been run on a "Rupa" motor of the Diesel 
type, employing pulverized coal. Should these prove success- 
ful and the type become generally adopted, it will result in 
a straight cut of upwards of twenty-five per cent in the amount 
of coal required for energy purposes. Hydrogenated coal and 
"colloidal" coal-powder suspended in fuel oil also present 
an improvement in efficiency whose extent cannot as yet be 
foretold. 

Each of these new methods promises results that may lie 
far in the future. But in the interim, we can count on several 
factors which favorably affect the coal situation. Among these 
are: 

(a) Once a balanced industrial economy is adopted, coal 
mining can be put on a rational schedule, and adequate stor- 
age facilities may be supplied to take care of seasonal fluc- 
tuations in demand. 

(b) Improved methods of mining will eliminate many of 
its hardships and dangers. Table III, taken in part from the 
JVorld Almanac for 1934, shows the number of men killed 
or injured in coal-mining operations. 

In practically every industry coal is being consumed with 
increasing economy (or in ways that produce improved re- 



72 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

suits, whether measured in ton-miles of freight hauled, or 
in kilowatt-hours of electric energy generated per ton of 
coal). This is no more than is to be expected. As an added 
instance, however, of the greater economy provided by mod- 
ern technology, iron manufacture may be cited. In this in- 
dustry, furnaces have shown a steady increase in size coupled 
with a constant gain in the economy of operation. As in the 
case of steam generation, every precaution is taken to utilize 
all the heat in the fuel. The improvement has been particu- 
larly noticeable during the past five years. 



Year 





Table 


III 








Coal-Mining Accidents* 






Total Men 
Employed 


Men Killed 


Temporarily 
Injured 


Permanently 
Injured 


Tons Coal 

Mined 
per Death 


759.177 
682,831 
654,494 
644,006 
589,705 
540,000 


2,231 
2,176 
2,187 
2,063 

1.463 
1,168 


101,093 
78,871 


2,728 
1,871 


267,078 
264,749 
278,380 
260,257 

301,949 
304,000 



1927 

1928 

1929 

1930 

I93I 

1932 

* The above table indicates a (practically) regularly lessening accident rate 
through the period covered by this Survey. Complete data, for other than fatal 
accidents, cannot be obtained. 

Table IV 

Blast Furnace Consumption of Coke 

Pounds of Coke 
per Ton of 
Year Pig Iron 

1927 2,122* 

1928 2,089* 

1929 2,059* 

1930 2,047* 

1931 (December) i.474t 

* Yearly averages published in the Annual Statistical Report of the American 
Iron & Steel Institute, 1933. 

t From a paper presented in 1932 by R. M. McClurkin before the Iron and Steel 
Division of the American Institute of Mining and Metallurgical Engineers. 

The cost of fuel enters, directly or otherwise, into the 
production cost of every article manufactured and consumed. 
The price of fuel is, in many cases, the determining factor in 



FUELS AND ENERGY 73 

all decisions as to whether any industry shall be established, 
and whether it will succeed financially. If steel furnished the 
sinews of our modern age, certainly the underlying nervous 
and physical energy is now to be looked for in coal. Whether 
society gets what it wants or needs is mainly decided, under 
our present economic system, by the price at which adequate 
supplies of coal can be obtained. 

By-Products of Coal. Raw coal cannot be used to re- 
duce iron ore to pure iron. It must first be "coked" in order 
to drive off the volatile constituents. The coke industry is, 
then, the basis of the iron industry. 

In the beginning these by-products were not saved, nor 
even sought. The cheapness with which coal could be bought 
in the open market, together with the relatively high prices 
at which iron could be sold, made concern over these im- 
portant wastes seem unimportant. But more recently a chang- 
ing price-structure brought the necessity for technological 
improvements to the attention of coke users. They discov- 
ered a fact that had been known for a long time, that they 
were wasting products that were fully as valuable as the coke 
they were producing. 

On the basis of this technological discovery (for scien- 
tifically the fact of the potential value of the volatile constit- 
uents of coal has long been known) an entirely modern 
industry has sprung up. 

The 1929 production and capacity of the products from 
the coal coked in by-product ovens appear in Table V. 

Among the many commodities with which coal by-prod- 
ucts supply society are explosives, fertilizers, plastics (such 
as bakelite, etc.), drugs, paints, dyes, perfumes, and electric 
insulators. And last, but only for purpose of emphasis, should 
be mentioned benzol, one of the most Important by-products 
of coal distillation. Millions of barrels of this substance are 
used to improve the quality of gasohne intended as motor 



74 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table V 
Coke By-Products 

Production Capacity 

Coke, by-product (tons) 53,411,826 58,701,000 

Gas (M. cu. ft.) 843,148,000 926,536,000 

Ammonium sulphate or equivalent (lbs.). ..- 1,712,427,835 1,881,788,000 

Crude light oil (gal.) 200,594,027 230,323,000 

Naphthalene (lbs.) 19,761,382 21,715,000 

Tar (gal.) 680,846,366 748,202,600 

Creosote (gal.) 26 , 730 ,126 29 , 373 , 000 

Source: Worksheet No. 18, N.S.P.P.C. 

fuel, giving it valuable anti-knock qualities. (See section of 
this chapter on petroleum.) It is difficult to conceive of a 
modern industrial society existing without any one of the 
above list. 

The process of producing coke and its by-products has not 
yet been perfected. The results hoped for from low-tempera- 
ture distillation of coal did not warrant the money spent 
upon experimentation, but that does not mean that low-tem- 
perature distillation holds no promises, especially in the 
utilization of the lower-grade coals. 

Conclusions. In many sections of the country, natural 
gas, a by-product of the petroleum industry, seems to have 
taken the place of manufactured gas as a source of heat, 
not only for domestic cooking and heating, but as a substitute 
for coal in firing sheet-steel heating furnaces and in many 
other industrial operations. 

While it is possible to estimate with reasonable certainty 
the amount of coal that is still in the ground, the extent of 
our natural-gas supply is highly problematical. If and when 
our national supply of natural gaseous fuels becomes ex- 
hausted, we shall be forced to fall back upon manufactured 
gas as a source for certain types of "great-flexibility" fuels. 
However certain it may seem that science will supply us with 
new materials from other sources to supplement those whose 
supply has failed, at no time, even if our reservoirs of natural 
gas prove inexhaustible, can we neglect the mining and proc- 



FUELS AND ENERGY 



75 



a. ►r) 



Ocj 



►tI 




76 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

essing of a certain amount of coal, for from it are obtained 
the many highly important industrial materials mentioned 
above. 

Petroleum and Natural Gas. The petroleum-produc- 
ing areas of the United States are both smaller and less wide- 
spread than the coal-producing areas, as is indicated by the 
accompanying map, which shows the oil-producing regions 
and also the oil-shale areas which are as yet unexploited. 
Petroleum and its liquid products, such as gasoline, are rela- 
tively easy to transport, the system in use being largely based 
on pipeline transportation of the crude petroleum and its 
refining in central locations. 

Petroleum is most important as the source of lubricating 
oil necessary to the operation of all machinery and as the 
source of gasoline used as fuel by automotive equipment and 
airplanes. In addition, it supplies large quantities of boiler 
fuel oil, kerosene for lighting and heating, gas oil for en- 
riching water-gas, paraffin wax, and almost innumerable other 
products in the drug, cosmetic, and chemical categories. 

The production in the United States of petroleum and the 
capacity of refineries to handle petroleum is given in Table 
VI. 

Table VI 
Petroleum Production and Capacity* 

Production Refinerv Capacity! 

Year (bbls.) (bbls.) 

1927 901,129,000 1,074,976,830 

1928 901,474,000 1,185,405,390 

1929 1,007,323,000 1,249,215,000 

1930 898,011,000 1,385,321,962 

1931 851,081,000 1,320,710,890 

1932 781,845,000 1,468,514,720 

1933 898,874,000 1,520,500,000 

* Source: Report No. 8, N.S.P.P.C. 

t "Capacity" fluctuates with the end-proilucts liesired. 

As can be seen from Table VII, there is a considerable ex- 



FUELS AND ENERGY 77 

Table VII 
Petroleum Imports and Exports* 

Balance 

Imports Exports Imports — Exports 

Year (bbls.) (bbls.) (bbls.) 

1927 58,383,000 15,844,000 -42,539,000 

1928 79,767,000 18,966,000 —60,801,000 

1929 78,933,000 26,401,000 —52,532,000 

1930 62,129,000 23,704,000 —38,425,000 

1931 47,250,000 25,535,000 -21,715,000 

1932 44,688,000 27,393,000 —17,295,000 

^933 32,773,000 36,703,000 +3,930,000 

* Source: Worksheets Nos. 228 and 229, N.S.P.P.C. 

port and import of petroleum which is governed by com- 
mercial rather than economic considerations. 

Any estimate of the extent of the unexploited deposits of 
petroleum is beyond the scope of this report. Opinions as 
to the quantity of oil remaining underground vary greatly. 
Fifteen years ago It was expected that we would face a severe 
shortage of petroleum In the present decade. The proponents 
of the "limited oil fields" hypothesis have now "postponed" 
the day of oil shortage some fifty years. No one, however, 
knows how much oil can still be produced. At any time, new 
methods may be utilized. (In place of flowing and pumping 
the liquid oil, for example, oil sands may be "mined" and 
then treated to recover the contained oil.) 

The oil-shale deposits of the Rocky Mountain States are 
estimated to contain In excess of 12,000 billion gallons of 
oil, a supply that would last between 300 and 400 years at 
the present rate of production. In any case, the exhaustion 
of the petroleum supply in the United States Is too far off to 
warrant its consideration in this report. We can assume that 
the petroleum production, even if demand exceeds the sup- 
ply, can be readily augmented by the motor fuel produced 
by the liquefaction of coal. 

Considered from the standpoint of the capacity of petro- 
leum refineries to handle crude oil, we find the Table VIII 
figures pertinent. They show a fairly steady increase. 



78 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table VIII 

Refinery Capacity * 

Capacity 
Year (bbls.) 

19^7 1,074,976,830 

1928 1,185,405,390 

1929 1,249,215,000 

1930 1,385.321.962 

1931 1 ,320,710,890 

1932 1,468,514,720 

1933 1,520,500,000 

* Source: Report No. 22, N.S.P.P.C, 

The rated capacity of refineries fluctuates as to the amount 
of crude oil that can be handled in accordance with the end- 
products produced. The capacity of a plant engaged only in 
"skimming," that is, removing the gasoline from the crude, 
is much greater than if lubricating oils are being produced. 

Another factor that should be considered is the large stor- 
age capacity in so-called "tank farms" built up to accommo- 
date the "flush" production that always accompanies the 
discovery of a new oil field, when, for a period of days, weeks, 
or perhaps months before the rock-pressure fails and pump- 
ing must begin, the new wells spout oil often in uncontrollable 
profusion. 

On May i, 1931, the capacity^ for oil storage at "tank 
farms" and refineries, was 1,002,724,000 barrels, considera- 
bly more than an average year's production. Seventy per cent 
of this was crude-oil storage capacity. 

Natural Gas. Natural gas comes either from wells pro- 
ducing oil, or from wells producing gas alone. Table IX 
shows the production of natural gas In recent years. 

This gas was entirely consumed except for relatively small 
losses. The amount of natural gas used in 1929 for heating 
and cooking was somewhat greater than the manufactured 
gas used for the same purpose. Natural gas Is transported 
In pipe lines to consuming areas as far as 1000 miles from 

^ U. S. Bureau of Mines, "Mineral Resources," 1931, Part II, p. 674. 



FUELS AND ENERGY 79 

Table IX 
Natural Gas Production * 

Production 
Year (cu. ft.) 

1927 1,445,428,000,000 

1928 1 , 540,000,000,000 

1929 1,917,693,000,000 

1930 1 ,943,421 ,000,000 

1931 1,686,436,000,000 

1932 1,555,990,000,000 

* Source: Report No. 15, N.S.P.P.C. 

the gas field. Considerable natural gas is used for the pro- 
duction of carbon black — a pigment used for paints and 
which is also used in the manufacture of automobile tires 
and other rubber products — and in the manufacture of 
methanol and other chemicals. 

Natural gas, as it comes from the wells, contains gasoline 
vapor, which is condensed out and used as a valuable en- 
richer for distilled or "cracked" gasoline, increasing the 
volatility and anti-knock properties of the resultant motor 
fuel. Natural gasoline production and the capacity of re- 
fineries to treat natural gasoline are given in Table X. 

Table X 
Natural Gasoline * 

Production Refinery Capacity 

Year (bbls.) (bbls.) 

1927 38,657,000 67,559,000 

1928 42,326,000 88,695,000 

1929 52,271,000 86,031,000 

1930 52,631,000 91,396,000 

1931 43,617,000 98,955,000 

1932 35,772,000 103,600,000 

1933 33,610,000 106,000,000 

* Source: Report No. 22, N.S.P.P.C. 

Gasoline is produced either by "skimming" and "topping" 
petroleum (straight distilling), or by distilling at elevated 
temperature and pressure ("cracking") various crude oils 
and petroleum residues. Gasoline produced by ordinary dis- 
tillation runs from twenty per cent to thirty per cent of the 
crude oil run to the stills. By the use of cracking stills, gaso- 



80 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table XI 

Motor-Fuel Production* 

Natural Gasoline Total Motor 

Gasoline Distilled Run through Fuel (excluding 

from Crude Oil Refineries | Benzol) 

Year (bbls.) (bbls.) (bbls.) 

1927 305,604,000 31,744,000 337,348,000 

1928 350,555,000 34,358,000 384,913,000 

1929 396,259,000 5,545,000 40i,8o4,ooot 

1930 398,532,000 43,170,000 441,702,000 

1931 404,895,000 35,116,000 440,011,000 

1932 402,063,000 

1933 406,811,000 

*Source: Report No. 8, N.S.P.P.C. 

t About 105,000,000 gallons of benzol were used in motor gasoline in 1929. 
t These figures represent the difference between total motor-fuel and distilled 
gasoline. 

line production can be raised to over seventy per cent of the 
oil treated. 

Table XI shows the figures on gasoline production, on 
natural gasoline sold as such, and for "total motor fuel" — 
excluding benzol, a coal by-product mixed with gasoline as 
an "anti-knock." 

Fuel oil and gas oil, being rather similar products of pe- 
troleum refining, are classed together in this chapter. In re- 
cent years, the production and consumption of these oils in 
the United States has been as shown in Table XII. 

Table XII 
Fuel Oil and Gas Oil* 

Indicated 

Production Consumption 
Year (bbls.) (bbls.) 

1927 393,066,000 339,265,000 

1928 427,237,000 383,974,000 

1929 448,949,000 420,493,000 

1930 372,498,000 365,582,000 

1931 336,967,000 336,698,000 

1932 294,287,000 307,666,000 

1933 313,811,000 321,395,000 

•Source: Report No. 10, N.S.P.P.C. 

Kerosene is used for heating, cooking, and lighting in rural 
districts where manufactured or natural gas cannot be ob- 



FUELS AND ENERGY 8 1 

tained. Kerosene is also exported in quantities relatively 
larger than the exports of most petroleum production. Table 
XIII gives the production, consumption, and exports of this 
product. 

Table XIII 

Kerosene* 

Indicated 
Productionf Consumption Exports 

Year (bbls.) (bbls.) (bbls.) 

1927 56,113,000 37,491,000 19,537,000 

1928 59,353,000 36,235,000 22,034,000 

1929 55,940,000 36,032,000 20,022,000 

1930 49,208,000 34,736,000 16,884,000 

1931 42,446,000 31,296,000 12,712,000 

1932 43,836,000 33,221,000 10,956,000 

1933 48,921,000 38,840,000 

* Source: Report No. 12, N.S.P.P.C. 

t Production data do not represent an addition of Consumption and Exports. 

The most necessary, technologically, of all petroleum 
products — lubricating oils for which no suitable substitutes 
have been developed — are also expor;ted in considerable 
quantities. The imports, however, are insignificant. 

Table XIV 
Lubricating Oil* 

Production Consumption Exports 

Year (bbls.) (bbls.) (bbls.) 

1927 31,721,000 21,669,000 9,776,000 

1928 34,658,000 23,168,000 11,023,000 

1929 34,359,000 23,609,000 10,860,000 

1930 34,201,000 21,589,000 9,935,000 

1931 26,704,000 20,094,000 8,128,000 

1932 22,433,000 16,614,000 6,857,000 

1933 23,806,000 17,066,000 

* Source: Report No. 11, N.S.P.P.C. 

Production of other petroleum products in 1929 attained, 
according to "Refinery Statistics" of the Bureau of Mines, 
a total quantity of 40,744,000 barrels. Of these, petroleum 
coke is most important, being the best material available for 
the manufacture of electric-furnace electrodes and dry-cells. 
Only part of this coke is needed for these purposes, the re- 
mainder being used as domestic and industrial fuel. 



82 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

In 1929, the oil derived from petroleum was used as 
shown In Table XV. 

Table XV 

Petroleum Uses 

Use Barrels 

Steamships 92,042,365 

Railroads 75,965,760 

Electric central stations 10, 125,216 

Gas utilities 21 ,306,907 

Building heating 24,883,407 

At refineries 51 ,544,000 

Gasoline consumption In 1929, according to the same au- 
thority, was 372,944,000 barrels, divided as In Table XVI. 

Table XVI 
Gasoline Uses 

Use Barrels 

Automotive fuel 299,460,000 

Airplane fuel 717,000 

Motorboat fuel 18,606,000 

Stationary engines, etc 18,000,000 

Much gasoline was also used by agricultural machinery, 
but no statistics are available. 

For the year 1929, the value at the refinery of the pe- 
troleum products discussed above Is given In Table XVII. 

Table XVII 

Petroleum Products* 

Production 

Product (bbls.) Valuef 

Crude 1,007,323,000 ^1,280,417,000 

Gasoline (incl. Natural) 441,804,000 1,555,294,000 

Gas and fuel oils 428,219,000 381,115,000 

Kerosene 55,940,000 173,973,000 

Lubricants 34,359,000 275,636,000 

Other 40,744,000 86,478,000 

* Source: "Refinery Statistics," United States Bureau of Mines, Department of 
Commerce. 

t It is noteworthy that the consumers of gasoline are subsidizing the competitive 
war with coal by paying high prices per gallon, thus permitting the sale of fuel 
oil at much lower prices than would be possible otherwise. 

The use of petroleum and petroleum products as fuels has 
grown so fast that it is not possible to make any determina- 



FUELS AND ENERGY 83 

tion as to requirements for these products, but new refineries 
can be built in two or three years, as soon as the need for them 
becomes apparent. 



ELECTRICAL ENERGY 

The primary energy of fuels is partly used without change 
of form and partly converted to electrical energy. This elec- 
trical energy is reconverted to heat In the electric furnace or 
the incandescent lamp, or to mechanical energy in the electric 
motor. Electrical energy thus serves as a convenient form 
for energy-transmission purposes, but it is seldom used until 
it is converted to other forms.^ 

Prior to 1900, most industrial plants received their power 
from steam engines and water-wheels. But from a small be- 
ginning in 1887 of 175 million kilowatt-hours, sold mostly 
for lighting purposes, the central station or electric public- 

Table XVIII 

Installed Capacity and Electricity Generated* 

Installed Generated by 

Capacity Generated Water Powerf 

Year kw. kw.-hr. per cent 

1902 2,507,051,000 

191 2 11,569,110,000 

1922 47,659,000,000 36.1 

1927 25,811,305 80,205,000,000 37.2 

1929 28,389,000 97,352,385,000 35.6 

1931 32,563,000 92,225,000,000 

1933 33»593.ooo 

* Source: Report No. 497, N.S.P.P.C, 
t United States Geological Survey. 

^The units in which energy and power and designated are: The power 
of a steam engine, motor, or water-wheel, in "horsepower" ; of an electric 
generator, in "kilowatts." One horsepower is equivalent to 0.746 kilowatts, 
one kilowatt to 1.34 horsepower. The energy generated by an engine or 
water-wheel is expressed in "horsepower-hours" (hp.-hr.), the energy gen- 
erated by an electric generator is expressed in "kilowatt-hours" (kw.-hr.). 
Thus the power of water-wheels is given in horsepower, while the power of 
the generators connected to them is given in kilowatts and the output of 
these generators is given in kilowatt-hours. 



84 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Utility industry has grown at an astounding pace, as evi- 
denced in the accompanying Table XVII, which shows for re- 
cent years the kilowatt hours distributed by central stations as 
well as the installed capacity. A small part of this total is 
from industry-owned plants. 

Of developed water-power sites, some offer a nearly con- 
tinuous flow of water and are classed as capable of producing 
power ninety per cent of the time. Others can furnish power 
only fifty per cent of the time, unless larger reservoirs are 
built. In this latter class, however, generating equipment 
totaling only sixteen per cent of capacity is installed, while 
in the first class the installed generating capacity equals forty- 
two per cent of the possible capacity of the sites. 

According to the Geological Survey, installed capacity of 
water-power plants in 1929 was 13,808,000 horsepower. In 
1930 it was 14,885,000 horsepower, and several Federal 
projects now under way will add considerably more. (It is 
interesting to note that George A. Orrok, formerly consult- 
ing engineer of the New York Edison Company, has esti- 
mated that the maximum possible output from the 
water-power sites of the United States is 1 23 billion kw.-hr. ) 

During 1934, new steam-electric central station capacity 
of 169,450 kw. was completed. The Federal Government 
expects soon to add 2,500,000 kw. from water-power plants, 
and new municipal and other projects will add 821,450 kw. 
Completion of all these projects would make a national elec- 
tric generating capacity in excess of 37,084,000 kw. 

The installed capacity of the generating equipment can 
be utilized much more fully than at present by securing a 
more economical utilization of power and light, a better dis- 
tribution of peak loads, and an improved power-factor.^ 

* "Power-factor" is the ratio between the usable energy produced by an 
electric generator and the apparent energy produced, as indicated by the 
current and voltage of the electric circuit. A low power-factor can be cor- 
rected by the proper design of circuits and the use of auxiliary equipment 
in the circuit. "Load-factor" is the per cent of full utilization of installed 
capacity. 



FUELS AND ENERGY 85 

The output capacity for 1929 of the installed generating 
equipment, allowing ten per cent of the machine time for 
maintenance work, would have been 224 billion kilowatt- 
hours. Obviously, this potential output cannot be produced 
when some industries only run eight hours per day, when 
the lighting load is at a peak only during the dark hours, 
and when a certain amount of the capacity is installed in 
anticipation of future demands but remains idle under pres- 
ent conditions. 

In 193 1, the load-factor was 33.4% in the United States, 
while the Soviet Union was obtaining a load-factor of 42 
per cent. Our country could undoubtedly make an improve- 
ment along this line. 

In addition to the 1929 supply by central stations of 97 
biUion kw.-hrs., over i billion kw.-hrs. were imported from 
Canada. Table XIX shows how this total is in part accounted 
for. 

Table XIX 
Electricity Uses* 

Million kw.-hr. 

Domestic 9>773 

Commercial 6,553 

Industrial 50,879 

Municipal 2,450 

Railway 5 , 640 

Total 75*295 100. o 

* Source: Electrical World, Jan. 6, 1934. 

In 1929, the installed capacity of motors and prime mov- 
ers in industrial plants was about 42,900,000 horsepower, 
of which 22,800,000 horsepower was driven by electricity 
from central stations, 12,400,000 horsepower was driven by 
electricity generated in the industrial plant, and about 7,700,- 
000 horsepower was non-electric. It seems reasonable to as- 
sume that the probable generation of electric power by 
industry Is somewhere between 34 and 35 billion kw.-hrs. 

Therefore, the total consumption of energy from all 



Per cent 


13 





8 


7 


67 


6 


3 


3 


7 


4 



86 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

sources by Industry can be estimated at approximately 85 
billion kw.-hrs., made up of 50,879,000,000 kw.-hrs. of pur- 
chased energy plus 35,000,000,000 kw.-hrs. generated by in- 
dustry. In addition, there is about 7,700,000 horsepower of 
steam engines and water-wheels directly connected to ma- 
chinery which, when operated as at present, would represent 
an additional supply of 17 billion kw.-hrs. per year. This 
would bring the total energy consumption of industry to 
about 102,000,000,000 kw.-hrs. per year. 

Industry will continue to furnish much of its own electri- 
cal requirements because of its need for steam for processing 
and the possibility of generating electric power as a by- 
product from this steam. 

The housing program, an important factor in estimating 
electric energy requirements, will take time to accomplish — 
a maximum of ten years, according to our calculations. 
Therefore the following estimates represent requirements 
only after the completion of the housing program. These 
estimates, however, are largely hypothetical, for technology 
would move rapidly under the stimulus of unrestricted pro- 
duction, and the consequent changes in this ten-year period 
are therefore unpredictable. 

The budget adopted by the Survey represents only con- 
sumer requirements, and not necessarily a full use of all 
existing productive facilities. The possible and desirable in- 
crease over 1929 in the output of consumer goods Is esti- 
mated, at a minimum, to be 50%. But the electrical energy 
required for this increase and for the needs (at the end of 
ten years) of the proposed new houses, would not neces- 
sarily mean a corresponding 50% increase in electrical 
energy consumption. 

Improved load factor with fuller operations, improve- 
ments in motor design and transmissions, and the greater 
efficiency of other electrical apparatus will, in all probabil- 



FUELS AND ENERGY 87 

ity, result in but a 25% increase in industrial consumption of 
electrical energy. 

Since the 1929 industrial consumption was between 95 and 
102 billion kw.-hrs. (including sources of power other than 
central stations, which amounted to 51 billion kw.-hrs.) we 
can expect an additional electric consumption of 25 billion 
kw.-hrs. or a total at the end of the ten-year period of 125 
billion kw.-hrs. 

Farm electrification in 1929 was in an incipient stage, dif- 
ferently reported as between 8 and 11.7%. Assuming that 
by the end of the ten-year period four million farms will be 
electrified,^ their annual consumption will vary, because of 
irrigation demands and differing agricultural activities, be- 
tween 800 kw.-hrs. on the farms east of the looth meridian 
and up to 6,000 kw.-hrs. on farms west thereof. 

If all of the 4 million farms are fully electrified, the rural 
electric consumption will reach 10.4 billion kw.-hrs. per 
year. But in view of the inaccessibility of many farms and 
the sparsity of settlements it is not likely that more than 
75% of these farms will use such service, thus bringing the 
total of rural consumption at the end of the ten-year period 
to an estimated 7.8 billion kw.-hrs. 

Domestic use of electric energy in 1929 was 9.77 billion 
kw.-hrs., which increased by 1933 to 11.94 billion kw.-hrs., 
or 542 million kw.-hrs. per year. Since these were the de- 
pression years we may assume that the growth was only 
half as rapid as it would be under the conditions postulated 
by this Survey. Therefore we estimate that at the end of the 
ten-year period the domestic use of electricity will increase 
by I.I billion kw.-hrs. per year, thus reaching a total of 13 
billion kw.-hrs. This estimate, however, presupposes no new 
homes and no removal of the restrictions imposed by high 
rates and expensive appliances. A more rational estimate 
can be predicated on the basis of assumed full satisfaction of 

^Edison Electric Institute, Bulletin 9. 



88 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

domestic requirements for electricity, averaging Canadian 

and Western United States rates of consumption. 

Consumption per household of 600 kw.-hrs. (a conserva- 
tive estimate) gives a figure of 24 billion kw.-hrs. in existing 
residences. An additional 1.55 million homes per year over a 
period of ten years builds up the load another 9.3 billion 
kw.-hrs. resulting in a total domestic consumption of 33 bil- 
lion kw.-hrs. at the end of the ten-year period. 

Commercial uses of electric energy are not expected to 
increase at a rapid rate except for places of entertainment, 
resorts, etc. Since 1929, annual commercial consumption ap- 
proximated 6.5 billion kw.-hrs. This type of consumption at 
the end of the ten-year period is not likely to exceed 10 
billion kw.-hrs. 

Municipal consumption of electricity for street and road 
lighting, institutions, and administrative buildings, while 
bound to increase, is not likely to require more energy, be- 
cause of the introduction of sodium-vapor lamps which use 
but a fifth of the energy required by the tungsten filaments. 
Since 1929, municipal consumption of electricity was 2.45 
billion kw.-hrs. With a trebling of the area of streets and 
rural roads, and unusually extended other municipal serv- 
ices, the consumption, at the end of the ten-year period, may 
be approximated at 4.5 billion kw.-hrs. 

Railroad use of electric energy has been very low, and the 
electrification of traction so slow that at present Its trend 
is seemingly overtaken by the rapid adoption of Diesel- 
electric trains (streamlined and other), gasoline motor ve- 
hicles, aviation, etc. The probable growth of trackless 
trolleys and urban subways will be largely offset by the im- 
proved efficiency of transmission, motors, bearing and jour- 
nal design, and reduction of air resistance. On the other 
hand the greater leisure assumed in this Survey and the con- 
sequent increase of travel for recreational and educational 
purposes will undoubtedly add to the density of electrified 



FUELS AND ENERGY 89 

travel. Since in 1929 railroad consumption was 5.64 billion 
kw.-hrs., and in 1933 dropped to 2.9 billion kw.-hrs., it is 
estimated that at the end of the ten-year period the con- 
sumption of this class will be about 3.7 billion kw.-hrs. 

The total requirements in electric energy supply to be 
met at the end of the ten-year period in order to provide 
for the postulations of our budget (not considering the 
changes in population and its redistribution) are estimated 
in Table XX. 

Table XX 

Total Electrical Requirements at End of Ten- Year Period 

Industrial 125,000,000,000 kw.hrs. 

Rural 7,800,000,000 " " 

Domestic 33,300,000,000 " " 

Commercial 10,000,000,000 " " 

Municipal 4,500,000,000 " " 

Transportation 3,700,000,000 " " 

184,300,000,000 " " 
Transmission and distribution losses and central-station 

use 14,700,000,000 " " 

199,000,000,000 " " 

Capacity at present (after completion of projects under 
way) has been shown to be 37,665,000 kw. If this capacity is 
utilized more efficiently than it is at present, if the load-factor 
is improved to 60%, and if the industrial power installations 
are utilized to the full, we may expect to generate approxi- 
mately 200 billion kw.-hr. of energy. 

The immediate satisfaction of American budget require- 
ments can, apparently, be met from the installed electrical 
capacity, but an increase in this capacity of some 25% will 
be needed over a ten-year period, as homes are fully electri- 
fied. The present rate of increase in capacity is ample. 

In spite of this, an increase in generating capacity will 
still be required, but it may be achieved along different, less 
costly, and more quickly realized lines than would be the case 
if present designs of generating equipment w^re used. In the 



90 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

following summary of the prospects for national energy 
supply some of the most probable innovations are considered. 

SUMMARY 

As stated In the beginning of this chapter, the total energy 
supply of the country reached a peak In 1929, when 26,534 
trillion B.T.u. of energy were consumed; but It would be 
optimistic to estimate that as much as twenty-five per cent of 
this quantity did any useful work. Automobile engines run 
at about five per cent overall efficiency. House heating wastes 
as much as eighty per cent of the heat in coal or oil. Steam- 
power plants do well to put twenty per cent of their heat 
supply to work. 

Outside of the field of central stations, two developments 
promise favorably to affect the energy supply in the im- 
mediate future: (i) house heating will be made much less 
wasteful by a switch in fuel from raw coal to oil or gas and 
by the wholesale use of house insulation; (2) railroads are 
adopting Diesel-driven locomotives, which conserve energy 
and also cut down the waste that arises from hauling coal 
for railroad use. 

In steam-electric central stations, the fuel efficiency will 
probably be Increased. Greater energy economies are to be 
expected, however, from the development of power stations 
in conjunction with coal mines and coal processing plants, 
utilizing fuels that would be otherwise wasted. 

Water-power plants can yield more energy if more exten- 
sive reservoirs are built. This will reduce the amount of elec- 
tric energy that must be supplied from other sources. 

These possibilities would indicate that our present energy 
supply can be made to serve greatly expanded needs before 
the necessity arises to mine more coal per year. 

Additional sources of energy seem to be just emerging on 
the horizon. A full-scale experiment Is under way with the 



FUELS AND ENERGY 9 1 

Flettner type of wind-driven rotor applied to electric-energy 
production. Some success is being achieved in recovering en- 
ergy via the temperature differences obtaining between the 
surface and depths of the sea. Experiments are under way to 
derive energy directly from the heat of the sun. Finally, the 
photo-electric cell is already beginning to be used as a minor 
source of power. Among some of the factors affecting the 
future energy supply are : 

( 1 ) The actual demand for fuels, per unit of product 
made, will continue to decrease. 

(2) The total consumption of fuels, even with greatly 
Increased industrial output, is not likely to exceed past 
peaks. 

(3) The gasification and liquefaction of solid fuels will 
make possible their transport through pipelines, thus reliev- 
ing the railways of much tonnage. 

(4) Hydro-electric resources will be more fully utilized. 

(5) Sodium and other vapor lamps will supplant the 
present tungsten lamps for lighting purposes with a cor- 
responding saving of four-fifths the amount of energy re- 
quired for a given amount of light. 

(6) Central stations will undoubtedly become more 
closely connected with energy sources, such as coal mines, 
and will be more fully inter-connected with high-tension 
transmission lines — resulting in a universal, coordinated en- 
ergy supply for the nation. 

(7) Heating of buildings will require less fuel if air con- 
ditioning is extended and the possible development of new 
methods of heating, such as wall-heating by electricity and 
body-heating by means of radio frequency waves are utilized. 

(8) Power transmission without wires may soon be per- 
fected. On a large scale this will drastically cut down trans- 
mission losses. 

(9) New supplies of energy from bacteria and ferments 
may be tapped. 



92 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

In concluding, it may safely be said that the present and 
prospective supplies of energy for the American nation are 
sufficient to more than satisfy any practicable requirements 
of the people. 

Walter N. Polakov 



CHAPTER VI 

THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 

Among modern industries, chemical manufacture furnishes 
the best example of mass production and the elimination of 
the human element. It exhibited these features long before 
any other branch of industry, because they are inherent in 
its processes and necessary to its successful conduct. Although 
chemicals were all originally made in batches, the advantages 
of continuous processing were early evident, particularly in 
cases where the materials are in a liquid state. Production 
methods were influenced by the continuous delivery of ma- 
terials from the pumps. 

The development of continuous processing led directly 
to automatic control, which also had the advantage of in- 
suring against human errors in producing chemicals that must 
not be allowed to vary from a predetermined formula. Auto- 
matic control and continuous production made for reduction 
in labor requirements. 

With production problems in the chemical industry early 
reaching a state of advanced technology, engineers and 
chemists have devoted more time to experiment and research 
than has been the case in any other field. This has served to 
develop many ways of making almost any chemical product, 
the choice of method at any given time or place depending 
upon availability and price of raw materials, power, or other 
needs of the process. 

One example out of many will serve to illustrate. Nitro- 
gen, generally in the form of an oxide or a nitrogen contain- 
ing salt, is needed in quantity, particularly as an ingredient 
of fertilizers and explosives. A large part of this demand, 
particularly in Japan and certain European countries, is met 

93 



94 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

by the importation of natural nitrate from Chile, a product 
that needs only mechanical preparation and concentration. 
In Sweden and Norway, where water power is available in 
large quantities, nitrogen from the air, of which it consti- 
tutes approximately four-fifths, is recovered by an electrical 
process. In the United States much of the nitrogen require- 
ment is available from ammonia sulphate and liquid am- 
monia — by-products of the manufacture of coke and coal 
gas.^ Another large supply comes from the synthetic am- 
monia process, in which fuel gas and air are the raw mate- 
rials. 

This matter of alternative manufacturing methods and 
alternative raw materials should be kept in mind in any con- 
sideration of chemical production. It makes the matter of 
production capacity indeterminate, for if the plant capacity 
to produce some chemical by one method is insufficient it can 
be made by some other method, and generally, with existing 
equipment. The vast possibilities of substitution of one chem- 
ical for another by the user should also be remembered, 
along with the fact that various chemicals can be utilized as 
raw material for other chemicals. All these factors render 
any attempt to define or limit the capacity of the chemical 
industry utterly meaningless. 

Because of its extreme flexibility, chemical manufacturing 
has become an exceedingly versatile servant of the consum- 
ing public and of most other industries. An ever-increasing 
flood of chemical products, of almost infinite variety, is 
turned out for all sorts of purposes. In the category of syn- 
thetic dyes, drugs, perfumes and flavors, all made from coal 
tar, or some alternative hydrocarbon, there are literally tens 
of thousands of products for every imaginable use. 

In its manipulation, combination, and recombination of 
the ninety-two elements, chemical manufacturing promises 

'The 1929 production was 750,000 tons, or three times the peace-time 
requirements. 



THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 95 

to supplant every natural material — perhaps even foods — 
with the products of the laboratory. Consider, for instance, 
the "plastic" Bakelite, now widely used where wood, metal, 
and ivory were formerly called for — even supplanting cork 
as a closure for whisky bottles — and there are at least a 
dozen other competing synthetic resins. 

The same considerations that make any attempt to fix the 
capacity to produce a given chemical meaningless, also apply 
to a large extent to the matter of raw materials. In the manu- 
facture of chemicals, there are no raw material limitations. 
Chemical raw materials are the elements that go to make 
up the air, water, and the earth's crust. These elements and 
their natural combined forms are amply abundant for all 
purposes. For example, if cellulose from wood is scarce, we 
can use the waste products of agriculture, such as straw. In 
regions where coal, a raw material for organic chemicals, is 
scarce, other hydrocarbons can take its place. 

Without extending the discussion further it is evident that 
the capacity to manufacture any single chemical product has 
no bearing on our larger inquiry. 

For the purpose of our survey, the production of chemi- 
cals for the peak year, 1929, is noted by principal groups in 
Table I, with the comment that the industry has grown 
rapidly during the last quarter century and, since the World 
War, has met every demand of the nation and exported an 
increasing amount in the face of the competition of the older 
and better established chemical industry of Europe. 

It should be noted in connection with the above table that 
much duplication occurs. For instance, a considerable part 
of the acids (sulphuric) is used to make salts and fertilizers. 
Sulphur goes in part to make sulphuric acid. Alkalis are used 
in soap manufacture. 

Capacity of plant equipment is available for certain prod- 
ucts of the chemical industry that go to consumer consump- 
tion, such as soap, explosives used for hunting and target 



96 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table I 
Chemicals in 1929 

Quantity Produced 

Product Group (tons) Value 

Principal acids 7>332,599 ^154,869,000 

Principal alkalis 8,158,819 209,678,000 

Principal salts 1,191,150 80,458,000 

Principal organic products 140,617 27,057,000 

Fertilizers, chemical 9,230,000 219,674,000 

Explosives 264,932 72,591,000 

Sulphur 2,363,000* 42,534,000 

Carbon black 174,425 17,791,000 

Blacking and stains 51,100 24,684,000 

Bluing 1 1950 1.365,000 

Paints and varnishes 2,486,725 566,973,000 

Naval stores — 36,282,000 

Soaps 1,654,000 301,191,000 

Gases (compressed or liquid). . . 544,682 52,190,000 
Other chemicals and chemical 

industry products — 1,476,952,000 

Total ?3, 284, 289,000 

* Long ton. 

practice, perfumes, drugs and blacking. In all cases, this 
capacity was greater than the 1929 production, and also 
greater than our budget requirements. For instance, soap 
capacity, in 1929, was 2,113,000 tons, compared to a pro- 
duction of 1,654,000 tons. This excess of capacity over pro- 
duction is ample to supply all additional soap needed to give 
an adequate per-capita consumption. 

In the matter of drugs, the other important direct con- 
sumption of chemical products, capacity is far beyond pres- 
ent needs. Any approximate realization of a full "American" 
standard of living for the whole population would only re- 
sult in a decreased demand for drugs. Better housing, better 
food, better sanitation, adequate clothing would result, in- 
evitably, in decreasing the amount of illness occurring among 
the present low-income groups. Adequate provision of health 
service would undoubtedly increase the effectiveness and 
range of preventive medicine, thus balancing, by a decrease 
in the amount of illness, the fact that people who now go 
without treatment would, with adequate purchasing power, 
command the use of medicines for their ills. 



THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 97 

The only conclusion that can be reached concerning the 
chemical industry is that, from all standpoints, it has ample 
capacity to meet any demand that can be foreseen at the 
present time. 

The future trend in chemical manufacture is toward an in- 
crease in the production of synthetic products, particularly 
those based on the combination of carbon and hydrogen. 
Within the past year, the newspapers carried stories of the 
successful production of automobile tires from a synthetic 
rubber-like substance. Organic, non-breakable glass is in the 
process of development. The vitamins, so valuable in foods, 
are one by one being made in the laboratory. New paints and 
varnishes, based on synthetic resins and oils, show superior 
qualities. 

The outlook for the chemical industry, then, is that, unless 
men hamper its growth by continued economic stupidities, 
an increasing number of useful materials. In quantity to sup- 
ply all demands, will be made for the service and comfort of 
humanity. 

Graham L. Montgomery 
Felix J. Frazer 



CHAPTER VII 

MANUFACTURING 

Modern manufacturing industries naturally divide into a 
number of great groups. Raw materials from farm and for- 
est are processed into foods, wood products, textiles, and 
clothing. Raw materials from mines are processed into metals 
or converted into energy. Raw materials from many sources 
are used by the chemical industry. Metals are fabricated into 
machines or into parts and accessories that are used as pro- 
duction and distribution equipment for industry, or sold 
direct to consumers. Finally, there is a group of industries of 
much importance that do not come under any of the above 
headings, including leather products, rubber products, hard- 
ware tools and implements, electrical appliances, household 
utensils and appliances, telegraph and telephone equipment, 
radio, optical goods, ceramics, toys, notions, jewelry, and 
personal articles. 

Food, wood products, textiles, paper, chemicals, metals, 
and energy are considered in other chapters. Here the manu- 
facture of machinery, and the group of important miscel- 
laneous industries will be considered. 

Machinery. In any modern industrial nation, an ade- 
quate supply of machinery must be assured at all times. In 
this, the United States is, and long has been, in an unusually 
fortunate position. Not only does this country have facili- 
ties for making all the machinery which by any stretch of 
the imagination might be needed, but it also has engineers 
and designers skilled in devising new machines to meet new 
needs as fast as these arise. 

The raw materials of machinery manufacture are iron, 

98 



MANUFACTURING 99 

Steel, and non-ferrous metals. These are available In ample 
quantity. In 1929, the steel used by this industry was 
1,500,000 tons, amounting to three per cent of the total. This 
supply will take care of future needs, unless exports of ma- 
chinery mount to unprecedented heights. 

Machinery manufacture is at once a highly unified and an 
extremely diverse activity. Basically, the industry manufac- 
tures machine tools with machine tools, and then manufac- 
tures all sorts of other machinery with these machine tools. 

If the machine tools are classified as metal-working ma- 
chines, machinery can be broadly separated into twelve great 
groups, each with a production amounting to well over 
$100,000,000 in 1929. These are agricultural machinery; 
business machines and appliances; construction machinery; 
food-processing equipment; metal-working machinery; min- 
ing, quarrying, and petroleum machinery; textile- and 
apparel-manufacturing machinery; power-generating and 
-transmitting equipment; pumps and hydraulic machinery; 
and machines and parts not elsewhere classified. Including 
boilers, chemical-plant equipment, gearing, bearings, shaft- 
ing, conveying equipment, and over one billion dollars' worth 
of machinery not allocated to any particular Industry. 

Each of these general classes has from two to a dozen 
subdivisions, there being seventy-three of these subdivisions 
in all. Again, the subdivisions are further divided as, for in- 
stance, bottling machinery, which includes bottle washers 
and sterilizers, filling machines, capping machines, and label- 
ers ; or printing machinery, which includes presses, typesetting 
equipment, stereotyping equipment, and so on. 

According to the U. S. Census of Manufactures for 1929, 
the main divisions of machinery manufacture produced the 
values shown In Table I. 

It should be noted that these groupings are not those used 
by the Census of Manufactures, but were selected by this 
Survey. The total value of machinery made, however, agrees 



100 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table I 
Machinery Production, 1929* 

Value (1929 dollars) 
Production Capacity- 
Class (Factory Value) (Theoretical Value) 

Agricultural ^179,432,616 ^360,346,000 

Business 170,187,769 340,376,000 

Construction 111,362,659 224,678,000 

Food-processing 280,739,868 573,460,000 

Household 131,814,511 266,914,000 

Metal-Working. 463,546,963 927,438,000 

Mining, quarrying and pe- 
troleum 159,602,380 329,204,000 

Textile 172,921,339 307,824,000 

Pumping and hydraulic 156,270,654 313,302,000 

Power 493,760,449 989,431,000 

Other manufacturing in- 
dustries 221,402,552 462,755,000 

Not elsewhere cl assified 4,501,958, 240 8 , 990 , 272 , 000 

Total ^7,043,000,000 ^14,086,000,000 

*Figures in this table taken from Report No. 614, N.S.P.P.C. 

with that found by the Census, and the groups are made up 
of subdivisions in which value agrees with the Census. 

The capacity figures given in the table are based on a com- 
promise between, on the one hand, the fact that average 
hours of plant operation can be greatly increased and, on 
the other hand, the fact of the shortage of skilled machin- 
ists if the plant were run at or near capacity. 

The machine industries operated, in 1929, an average of 
fifty-onehoursper week, being on a one-shift basis (48 hours) 
with some overtime at periods of peak operation. Experi- 
ence during the World War and at other peak periods indi- 
cates that somewhat over two-and-one-half-shift operation 
is feasible and still allows sufficient time for maintenance, 
cleaning, and repairs. Consequently, a two-and-one-half-shift 
basis can be assumed as a conservative operating time for the 
industry as a whole. However, there has been some abandon- 
ment of equipment in recent years, tending to decrease the 
total capacity. 

Also, there is a definite "bottleneck" in this industry in the 
supply of skilled machinists. This is not as serious as might 



MANUFACTURING 10 1 

appear on the surface. Under the classification of machinists, 
the great majority are engaged in work of a repetitive nature 
which can be mastered by any intelligent worker in a few 
months. The critical shortage exists in such skilled occupa- 
tions as tool-making, die-sinking, and the operations of job 
machine shops. Workers in these categories require at least 
several years of training to become skilled. 

But this skilled group comprises less than ten per cent of 
the total workers employed in the machine-making industries. 
Also, most of these industries can reach capacity without the 
necessity for training more of these skilled workers, because 
the proportion of such workers in the total of employed can 
be safely reduced. 

Because of these limitations caused by abandonment of 
plants and shortage of skilled workers, we have limited the 
working time for the full industry to two full shifts instead 
of two and one-half shifts. This figure is felt to be conserva- 
tive. 

In some of the branches of the industry, the table shows a 
capacity somewhat greater or less than would be obtained 
on the above basis. These variations from the mean cancel 
out, so that the total capacity appears as exactly twice the 
1929 production. 

Requirements for new machinery in the machine-using in- 
dustries are based on two factors : ( i ) the need for replacing 
worn out and obsolete machines and (2) the need for ex- 
panding certain industries in order to bring their capacity 
production up to the amount required to meet the needs of 
a decent "American" standard of living. 

Obsolescence rates vary from five to twenty per cent per 
year, ten per cent being as near an average figure as can be 
estimated without the aid of detailed industry studies, which 
have never been made. On this ten per cent basis, it has been 
estimated by the American Machinist that in 1929 approxi- 
mately forty-eight per cent of all American metal-working 



I02 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

machinery was obsolete. Certainly this obsolete machinery 
should be replaced; and as additional machinery becomes 
obsolete, it should also be replaced. 

The matter of expanding the capacity of machinery manu- 
facturing in order to expand the production of machine- 
using industries can safely be neglected for the next few 
years. In the studies of production capacity compared to our 
consumer budget the capacity of the machine equipment of 
industry has, on the whole, been adequate to meet the im- 
mediate needs of our budget, provided normal replacement 
of obsolete machines is carried out. 

Such a general statement, of course, does not hold true 
for every case. For instance, additional machinery is required 
in some parts of the textile industry. The construction indus- 
try will need considerably more equipment if the increased 
housing called for in our consumer budget is to be built. 
However, it must be kept in mind that the machinery industry 
can put out about twice the machinery turned out in 
1929. 

It must be assumed, also, that with a resumption of normal 
production in the United States, the machine-tool industry 
would once again supply the machinery manufacturing in- 
dustry with additional tools, thereby increasing capacity. This 
machine-tool industry is the heart of all machinery manufac- 
ture. Upon the ability of this industry to supply machine tools 
rests the ability of the remainder of the machine industry 
to turn out equipment. With about half its capacity unused 
in 1929, a peak year, it is obvious that an adequate supply 
of machine tools will be forthcoming when needed. 

The conclusion is inescapable that the machinery-manufac- 
turing industry is capable of providing the tools needed to 
produce the supplies necessary to assure a decent standard 
of living to the whole American people. 

It would be a mistake to leave in the reader's mind the 
impression that machine manufacturing has remained static 



MANUFACTURING IO3 

or gone backward in the five years that have elapsed since 
October, 1929. This period has seen as great an advance — 
and in many cases a greater — as any other five-year period 
in history. Engineers and inventors have worked along four 
lines to make really tremendous advances, which, unfortu- 
nately, have as yet not been widely translated into increased 
production. 

The greatest advances made have been in the speed of 
production of machinery. This had its inception in production 
of alloys that would stand up under harder service when 
used as metal-cutting tools, allowing deeper cuts and faster 
operation. As a result, much metal-working machinery and 
many machine tools have been completely redesigned to 
operate at higher production rates. One large concern has 
developed metal-cutting machines operating five times as 
fast as its older designs. 

Another advance has been registered in the perfection of 
welding apparatus and methods. It is now possible to per- 
form many operations with gas or electric welding with great 
savings in time, cost, and equipment. The Ford automobile, 
with its extended use of welding, and welded oil-refinery and 
power-plant equipment in place of riveted equipment, are 
developments of this period. 

A third advance has been in the development of auto- 
matically controlled machinery, with a consequent reduction 
in man-power requirements. Outstanding along these lines is 
the great automobile-frame plant of the A. O. Smith Cor- 
poration, where fully automatic operation has reduced the 
labor requirement some nine-tenths. Another notable 
example is the even greater reduction in labor re- 
quirement made by automatic incandescent-lamp-making 
machinery. 

Growing out of this advance in automatic machinery is a 
reduction in the need for skilled labor. This is very important 
to the machinery-manufacturing industry, for, as has been 



104 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

shown, the only possible "bottleneck" to capacity operation 
of the machinery-manufacturing industry lies in a shortage 
of skilled labor. 

Over a ten-year period, the net result of these advances 
and their natural extension will be a considerable increase 
in the capacity of this industry. 



Miscellaneous. Under this head are included a great 
group of industries that have no definite relation to one an- 
other, but that, on the other hand, cannot be included in any 
of the industrial groups so far discussed. The 1929 produc- 

Table II 

Miscellaneous Manufacturing, 1929 

Value (1929 dollars) 

Capacity 

Source* Item Production (Theoretical) 

WS 2 Shoes 1965,924,000 ? 1, 468,500,000 

Reps, 680-648] 

-625 > Leather products 158,890,000 Indefinite 

WS 38 J 

WS 6A Rubber products 1,147,000,000 1,868,000,000 

WS 17 Paper 903,301,000 1,111,202,000 

WS 89-90-\ Hardware, tools and imple- 

98-99-100/ ments, and plumbing 614,723,000 Indefinite 

WS 121-554 Electrical appliances and radio. . 2,021,654,000 Indefinite 
Rep. 407 Household utensils and appli- 
ances 225,342,000 Indefinite 

WS 147 Telegraph equipment 7,649,000 Indefinite 

WS 39 Telephone equipment 158,644,000 Indefinite 

WS 171 Optical goods 40,562,000 Indefinite 

WS 118 Ceramics (brick and pottery) . . 408,069,000 453,410,000 

WS 5 Glass 299,717,000 776,000,000 

Rep. 647 Jewelry, lapidary work 11,942,000 Indefinite 

WS 126 Jewelry, precious stones 177,387,000 Indefinite 

WS 185 Notions 1 16,659,000 Indefinite 

WS 183 Business supplies 164,761,000 Indefinite 

Rep. 677) fPipes 5,538,000 11,176,000 

Rep. 395 1- Personal articles-l Art 10,045,000 Indefinite 

WS 15J !_ Umbrellas .. . 16,500,000 Indefinite 

WS 187 Musical instruments 72,346,000 Indefinite 

WS 186 Recreational supplies and toys. 167,441,000 Indefinite 

WS III Clocks and watches 90,957,000 Indefinite 

WS 119 Stone products 192,163,000 222,400,000 

Rep. 394 Minerals, ground and treated. . 17,409,000 34,818,000 

Rep. 41 1-490 Needles, pins, and buttons 51,009,000 Indefinite 

Total ^8,045,632,000 

* The symbols "WS " and "Rep." refer to worksheets and rep orts of the N.S.P.P.C 



MANUFACTURING IO5 

tlon and capacity of these branches of manufacturing is 
shown in Table II. 

Of this group, shoes, leather products, rubber, paper, 
hardware, electrical appliances, household utensils, tele- 
phone and telegraph equipment, optical goods, ceramics, 
and business supplies are of first importance. Fortunately, 
there is sufficient existing machine capacity to fill the needs of 
the consumer budget in all cases where the capacity can be 
estimated. In the industries where the capacity is given as 
"indefinite," considerable unused capacity existed in 1929 
and additional capacity can be made available by drawing on 
the machine-manufacturing industry for a relatively small 
additional supply of machines. 

Shoes were produced in 1929 at the rate of 361 million 
pairs per year, the capacity being 550,000,000 pairs per 
year with full use of the shoe machinery in plants, while, 
by the rental of additional existing machinery from the 
United Shoe Machinery Company (which owns and rents 
nearly all of the machinery in this industry), production 
could be considerably increased. As a production of 550 mil- 
lion pairs would allow more than four pairs for every person 
in the United States (a figure greater than the consumer 
budget), production capacity in this industry is obviously 
ample. 

In the rubber industry, the critical figure is the number of 
tires that can be produced. Capacity in tires was 1 10,000,000 
in 1929, i.e., one full set for each of 27,500,000 automobiles. 
While this is somewhat more than the number of cars oper- 
ated, it is not a very large allowance. It would seem advis- 
able to equip this industry with more machines. However, 
with existing machines production can be increased to 150,- 
000,000 tires when operation is put on a three-shift basis, 
and this extra capacity would carry the industry over the 
brief period required to manufacture and install such addi- 
tional machinery as might be needed. 



I06 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

In paper manufacture, the margin between production 
and capacity was only about nineteen per cent in 1929. Any 
appreciable increase in paper requirements over 1929 con- 
sumption would demand either an increase in plant or in 
importation of paper, because allowance must be made for 
repairs and other unavoidable stoppages. Also, if we refer 
back to the chapter on forest products, it is evident that 
wood-pulp consumption cannot be increased greatly over the 
1929 figures until reforestation begins to make its effect evi- 
dent. Fortunately, ample supplies of paper can be imported 
from Canada and the Scandinavian countries during any 
period of adjustment. 

Hardware, tools, plumbing supplies, and electrical appli- 
ances appear in the table with indefinite capacities. This does 
not mean a prospective shortage of these products. The 
metals of which they are made are available in sufficient 
quantity to allow for any probable increase in production. 
However, the design of products in these industries changes 
so rapidly that no capacities can be assigned. 

Household-utensils production was close to capacity in 
1929. Provision of an adequate standard of living for the 
American people will call for an increase in the capacity of 
this industry, but this can be readily achieved, for the metals 
that form the raw materials are available and the excess ca- 
pacity of the machinery industry can easily supply the ma- 
chines for such an expansion. 

From the standpoint of equipment manufacture, it is im- 
possible to determine the capacity of the telephone and tele- 
graph industries because of the monopolistic character of 
these industries. It is known, however, that considerable un- 
used supplies of such equipment are on hand and that the 
industry has manufacturing capacity to turn out telephones, 
switchboards, and other equipment needed for any prospec- 
tive three-year expansion. 

Ceramics exhibit a possible "bottleneck" in the narrow 



MANUFACTURING IO7 

margin between brick production and capacity in 1929. How- 
ever, increased demand in the brick industry can readily be 
met by the increased use of the old hand methods of brick 
manufacture and firing, in which practically no machines are 
needed and the sole desideratum is a supply of semi-skilled 
labor and the requisite fuel. 

No others of this group of miscellaneous industries show 
any danger of shortages developing should the requirements 
of the consumer budget be met, with the possible exception 
of cut stone. But stone is not an essential building material, 
since cement and other materials can be used in its place. 

Considering this group of miscellaneous industries as a 
whole, they exhibit no "bottlenecks" that can prevent the 
supply of an adequate standard of living to the American 
people. 

Graham L. Montgomery 



CHAPTER VIII 

TEXTILES AND CLOTHING 

Fibers — cotton, wool, silk, and rayon — are the basis of 
one of the most important groups of consumer goods, woven 
fabrics. Beginning as a household craft, the spinning of yarn 
and weaving of cloth were, after mining, the first industries 
to emerge from the handicraft stage into large-scale ma- 
chine production, and were the very first industries to be- 
come fully mechanized. This was not an entirely fortunate 
occurrence, because the textile industry was fixed along its 
present lines so early in the development of machinery that 
it has benefited less than other industries from the modern 
trend toward automatic, continuous production. As a result, 
fabric production, in part, and garment production entirely, 
have remained in the semi-developed stage, where machines 
are used throughout, but where output per worker is low. 
Consequently, while raw fibers can be produced (on a world- 
wide basis) in practically unlimited quantity, fabric and gar- 
ment production are still handicapped by obsolescent equip- 
ment. 

Of the raw materials for textile manufacture, cotton is 
the most important. This product of agriculture can be pro- 
duced in the United States in ample quantities ; in fact, about 
half of the production is normally exported, and much more 
can be grown if desired. An annual supply of about 9,000,- 
000,000 pounds (18,000,000 bales) of cotton would be 
needed to run existing textile plants at capacity.^ 

Wool is not at present produced in this country in suffi- 
cient quantity to allow capacity operation of wool-textile 

^ We do not require this quantity of cotton for budgeted clothing, since 
we do not need to operate our textile plants at capacity to turn out budgeted 
cotton goods, as will be shown later. 

108 



TEXTILES AND CLOTHING IO9 

equipment, which would require 1,600,000,000 pounds of 
wool. In 1929 one-quarter of the 617,000,000 pounds of 
wool used was imported. However, the reason for this was 
not any inability of American agriculture to raise sufficient 
sheep, but rather the relatively low world price of wool. Our 
flocks could not be immediately increased to meet the full 
need, but this could be done in two or three years' time.^ 

All silk used by the American textile Industry is imported 
and probably will continue to be in the future. Attempts to 
raise the silkworm in this country have never been successful. 
However, we can obtain ample silk for our needs in the world 
markets and should importation cease for any reason, rayon 
could be substituted. 

The raw materials for rayon are wood pulp or cotton 
linters and common chemicals, such as acids and alkalis. 
Ample supplies of all these substances are available. 

Summing up the textile raw-material situation,^ it is evi- 
dent that the supply required to fill all American needs could 
be easily provided if physical factors were the only limita- 
tions. 

Yarns and Fabrics. The steps from raw material to 
finished garment or other fabric product are about the same 

Table I 
Raw Fibers 

Used for 1929 Required for Ratios, 

Production Capacity Capacity to 

Rep. No. Fiber Pounds Production Production 

759 Wool* 617,300,000 1,616,000,000 2.62 

Cottonf 3,780,700,000 8,959,800,000 2.37 

Silk 78,000,000 172,270,000 2.20 

Total 4,476,000,000 10,748,070,000 

* Carpets used 100,300,000 pounds of this wool in 1929 and 260,000,000 pounds 
are allocated at capacity for this use. 

t Carpets and cordage used 72,700,000 pounds of this cotton in 1929. 83,700,000 
pounds are allocated at capacity for this use. 

* Imports can be expanded to cover all needs during this period. This 
problem is presented in Chapter XVI, "Foreign Trade." 

' See Table I. 



no REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table II 

Yarns and Fabrics 

Used for 1929 Ratios, 

Production Capacity Capacity to 

Rep. No. Kind of Fiber Pounds Production Production 

759-760 Yarn and Felt (lbs.) t 

Wool and worsteds. 142,520,000 342,700,000 2.40 

Cotton 462,760,000 1,069,900,000 2.24 

Silk 32,220,000 41,700,000 1.30 

Rayon* 65,760,000 104,000,000 1.55 

Total 703,260,000 1,558,300,000 

Fabrics (in sq. yds.) 

762 Wool and worsteds. . 513,900,000 1,499,900,000 2.92 

Cotton 8,541,500,000 20,740,000,000 2.43 

Silk 456,000,000 1,142,200,000 2.50 

Rayon and mix- 
tures! 385,960,000 578,880,000 1.50 

Sub-Total. . . . 9,897,360,000 23,960,980,000 
Wool carpets 73,400,000 168,000,000 

Total 9,970,760,000 24,128,980,000 

* Rayon fibers are made from wood pulp (or linters) and common chemicals. 
Hence, quantities are not listed under raw fibers. 

t Exclusive of yarns used for manufacture of fabrics. 

t Rayon production figures are covered in reports of several branches of the 
textile industry. It is therefore impossible to obtain an accurate total. The figure 
used here represents the rayon fabric used for garment manufacture. Since no 
capacity was calculable, the ratio of capacity to production was assumed to be 
the same as for rayon yarn. 



for any textile. The raw material is first cleaned and other- 
wise prepared, and then spun into a yarn. This yarn is then 
woven into cloth or knitted. After bleaching, dyeing, and 
various finishing operations, garments or other consumer 
goods are made from the fabric. These operations fall into 
two groups: (a) the production of cloth or fabric from the 
raw fibers, and (b) the manufacture of garments and other 
goods from the fabric. It is (a) that must be examined in 
order to determine whether or not any limitations exist that 
will prevent the realization of an adequate living standard. 
We shall see later that (b) offers no limitations, except as 
style enters. 

Table II gives the 1929 production and the possible, or 
capacity, production of fabrics, yarns and felts. 



TEXTILES AND CLOTHING III 

Capacities shown in this table are based on the full prac- 
ticable use of textile mill equipment existing in 1927, 1929, 
or 1 93 1, under the limitations of the technical knowledge 
and the skill of management and workers that then prevailed. 
Assuming these conditions, conservative estimates of capaci- 
ties are obtained. The woolen industry, for example, is cal- 
culated on the customary one-shift basis, the cotton industry 
on a two- and three-shift basis, since this is customary during 
rush periods in the South. In all cases ample idle time was 
allowed for adjustments and repairs. 

Since 1927, there has been an abandonment of textile- 
mill capacity in all branches of the industry except rayon. 
For instance, cotton fabric capacity fell off from 20,700,- 
000,000 square yards in 1927 to 16,500,000,000 square 
yards in 1933. This fact does not, however, prevent the 
realization of the capacities given in Table I, since the aban- 
doned equipment could readily be repaired and reinstated, 
or replaced by modern textile machinery which operates at a 
higher rate of output than did the abandoned equipment.^ 

Since the volume of cotton fabric production is far larger 

Table III 

Breakdown of Cotton Fabrics 

Per Cent 

of Item 

for Total 

Square Yards Production 

Production Capacity and Total 

Item (1929) Highest Year Capacity 

1. Cotton fabrics used chiefly 

for garments 2,200,000,000 5,400,000,000 26 

2. Cotton fabrics used chiefly 

for household goods 1,500,000,000 3,600,000,000 18 

3. Cotton fabrics used for either 

of above 1,100,000,000 2,700,000,000 12 

4. Cotton fabrics used chiefly 

for other purposes 3,700,000,000 9,000,000,000 44 

Total 8,500,000,000 20,700,000,000 100 

^ It should be noted that the capacities given in the above paragraph 
and table differ slightly from those used on the Flow-Sheet. The figures there 
used were 1929 or later capacities in order to make textiles comparable vyith 
other commodities. 



112 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

than that for any other textile, and since its uses are the 
most varied, a breakdown of its production capacity and uses 
is given in Table III. 

We may assume that any required quantity of cloth in 
Item 3 and some from Item 4 could be diverted to garment 
manufacture. In distributing the excess capacity such a diver- 
sion is here resorted to. Allocating 1,300,000,000 square 
yards of Item 3 (capacity) plus 1,800,000,000 square yards 
of Item 4 (capacity) to Item i (capacity), gives 8,500,- 
000,000 square yards (or forty-one per cent of the total) 
which can be considered as available for garment manufac- 
ture. Table IV shows the result of this allocation. 

Table IV 

Allocation of Cotton Cloth to Garment Manufacture — Item I of Table III 

(square yards) 

Per Cent ot 

Production Capacity Capacity 

(1929) (1929) Production 

Men's clothing 1,180,000,000 2,850,000,000 33 

Women's clothing 820,000,000 2,000,000,000 23 

Remainder, yard goods Indeterminate 3,650,000,000 44 

Cotton fabrics available for 

clothing Indeterminate 8,500,000,000 100 

(For uses other than clothing) . . (12,200,000,000) 

Total (same as in Table III). 20,700,000,000 

The yard goods remainder is the surplus quantity avail- 
able for clothing at capacity operation. The other figures 
represent quantities actually entering into the 1929 produc- 
tion of men's and women's clothing and the capacity amounts 
allocated to these uses. In the latter items, the percentages 
of the total capacity were allowed to remain the same as for 
1929. This method of distributing the capacity for fabrics 
and yarns has been followed throughout. 

This assumption is the soundest basis for study which can 
be used in the absence of detailed statistics for the various 
types of cloth. Any more arbitrary distribution of the sur- 
plus capacity to produce fabrics would result in more of one 



TEXTILES AND CLOTHING II3 

sort of garment and less of another. Should this be desired, 
it can be done within established mechanical limits. Looms 
can be converted from the production of one fabric to an- 
other, and other fabrics substituted for those used in 1929 
production of any type of garment. 

Finished-Products Capacity. Restating the above an- 
alysis in more exact terms, it is obvious that the capacity 
calculation here employed is based on the assumption that: 
For each type of garment the fraction of the total fabric 
available for its capacity production is identical with the frac- 
tion actually employed in iQ2g for garment manufacture. 
Thus, the ratio (capacity to 1929 production) for any 
material is the same for each fraction as is the ratio for the 
total of that fabric. Since the number of any particular gar- 
ment made is in direct proportion to the square yards avail- 
able for its fabrication, all calculations can be, and have been, 
based on the following equations. 

Number of wool and worsted garments made in 1929 X 
2.92^ = capacity number. 

Number of cotton garments made in 1929 X 2.43^ = ca- 
pacity number. 

Number of silk garments made in 1929 X 2.50 = capacity 
number. 

^ Most of the garment totals are made up of garments of various fabrics. 
Therefore, the ratio between the number made in 1929 and capacity is a 
composite of the production to capacity ratios for the different fabrics, 
weighted by the relative number of each kind. Thus, for women's dresses, 
which are made from all four fabrics, a ratio of 2.35 is obtained and the 
equation becomes: Number of dresses (made in 1929) X 2.35 equals capacity 
or 206,460,000 X 2.3s equals 485,000,000. 

^ In the same way, the production and capacity figures for yarn can be 
used to calculate the capacity for manufacturing knitwear. Such calcula- 
tions, however, give capacities in excess of the estimates of knitting-mill 
capacity. For example, hosiery-mill capacity is about 180,000,000 dozen 
pairs, compared to the 234,000,000 dozen pairs capacity obtained by a calcu- 
lation based on yarn capacity of textile mills. These figures compare with 
a total of 117,000,000 dozen pairs actually made in 1929. Accordingly, the 
capacities for making hosiery, sweaters, and other knit garments were de- 
termined by the capacities of the various types of knitting mills. 



114 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table V 
Disposition of Yarns, Felt and Fabrics of Table II 

Allocation of 

Used for 1929 Capacity 

Rep. No. Used for Production Production 

Yarn and Felt (lbs.) 

758 Outerwear 53,560,000 115,820,000 

Underwear 81,600,000 182,100,000 

757 Hosiery 123,130,000 256,420,000 

760 Felt Goods 85,100,000 253,100,000 

Yarn for Other Uses 359,870,000 770,860,000 

703,260,000 1,578,300,000 

Fabrics (sq. yds.) 
730~757 Underwear, Sleeping Garments, 

etc 1,019,310,000 2,208,400,000 

757""76i Coats, Suits, Outerwear, etc. .. . 663,020,000 1,795,100,000 

757 Dresses 746,650,000 1,761,000,000 

757 Men's Shirts and Work Clothes. 884,960,000 2,156,500,000 

762 Carpets 73,400,000 168,000,000 

Yardage Goods (for Garments) . 1,550,000,000 3,670,000,000 
Yardage Goods (Household In- 
dustry) 5,033,430,000 12,369,980,000 

Total 9,970,770,000 24,128,980,000 

Number of rayon and mixed garments made in 1929 X 
1.50 = capacity number. 

Unfortunately, no exact figures for capacity to manufac- 
ture garments can be given, because of the flexible nature of 
the industry and the fact that an indeterminate quantity of 
garments can be made in the home. Incomplete data indicate 
that the capacity to manufacture garments Is at least twice 
the 1929 production, and probably greater. 

Since, in 1929, the production of men's and boys' suits was 
29,000,000, then In accordance with the foregoing state- 
ment of capacity to produce, the garment-manufacturing ca- 
pacity was about 58,000,000. The figure obtained by use 
of the equations is 83,000,000 which is based on the quantity 
of fabric available for this purpose at capacity operation. 
It is a safe assumption, however, that the figure of 83,- 
000,000^ suits could be quickly reached, as the machinery 

^ The full list of the various kinds of garments, including the quantity of 
each produced in 1929 and the quantity at capacity operation, is covered in 
the "Wearing Apparel Budget," Table VI. 



TEXTILES AND CLOTHING 



115 



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Il6 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

used in garment production is simple and can be manufac- 
tured rapidly in large quantities. 

The same general conclusions apply to the women's gar- 
ment industry, much of which is conducted in small manu- 
facturing units. Here the important limiting physical factor 
is the labor supply, since the supply of sewing and cutting 
machinery is ample. Capacity estimates show that 500,000,- 
000 dresses and blouses could have been made, compared to 
actual 1929 production of 210,000,000. Furthermore, there 
could have been produced some 3,650,000,000 additional 
square yards of cotton cloth (Table IV) from which such 
garments might have been made. This capacity yardage pro- 
vides sufficient cloth for over 400,000,000 additional dresses, 
if it were all allocated to this use. 

The Future. The studies upon which this chapter is 
based were confined, from the technical standpoint, wholly 
to "things as they are." It must not be thought that the textile 
industry has necessarily reached the apex of its development. 

Yarn production is wholly automatic, but there still re- 
main possibilities for faster operation. Fabric production is 
relatively backward. Many improvements in weaving ma- 
chinery are possible, and some, already developed, are prob- 
ably held off the market for business reasons. The days of 
the fully automatic, continuous production of cloth cannot 
be held off much longer. Such a development promises a 
four- or five-fold increase in the output of cloth for each 
loom, and a corresponding or even greater reduction in the 
man-power required. It also promises a drastic simplifica- 
tion of the whole process of cloth production. 

In knit-goods machinery, a high level of development has 
been reached. The near future seems to hold only the possi- 
bility of increased speed of operation, as no drastic changes 
in design of equipment seem imminent. 

In garment manufacture, the controlling element, the 



TEXTILES AND CLOTHING II 7 

"whim of fashion," is likely to remain as it is at present. A 
good guess would have it that garments made of knit fab- 
rics will increase in popularity. Possible shortages from the 
fashion standpoint may always crop up, but fashion is just as 
likely as not suddenly to reverse its trend. 

The use of fabrics made from synthetic yarns, such as 
rayon, is rapidly increasing and will undoubtedly cause great 
changes in the textile field. Rayon-like yarns that have the 
warmth of wool have already been made by Snia-Viscosa, of 
Italy, and other manufacturers. New and improved synthetic 
fibers have developed so fast that it now appears possible 
that they will eventually largely supplant all natural fibers 
except cotton, which would seem to be secure as a textile 
fiber on the basis of its abundance. 

James L. Rollings 
Charles Steele 



CHAPTER IX 

FOOD PROCESSING 

Food processing is a necessary part of any modern econ- 
omy. Goods produced from land and sea are often seasonal 
products, while consumer needs for food are relatively con- 
stant throughout the year. Consequently, the perishable 
foods must be preserved in some way if the diet is not to be 
restricted at some seasons, particularly in winter. Also, many 
foods that can be stored without much deterioration, such as 
grains, must be processed to reach the form in which they 
are consumed. Finally, processing of foods in the factory has 
released women from many hours of grueling toil In kitchens, 
and has become an integral part of modern living conditions. 
We would not return to former conditions if we could — and 
we couldn't, even if we would! 

In the days of a strictly agricultural economy, when in- 
dustry was of the "household," each family unit carried on 
Its own food processing, or relied on the aid of strictly local 
facilities. Meat was slaughtered, cured, and smoked on the 
farm. Grain was ground to meal or flour In the home or in 
the local mill. Every summer the housewife put by what she 
could of preserved and dried fruits and vegetables. Bread, 
cake, and similar products were all prepared in the 
home. 

With the growth of industry and the resulting change in 
living conditions, such home activities became inconvenient 
and unnecessary. Today, the great majority of the American 
people are so separated from the land that food processing 
may be said to have become a necessary part of the national 
economy. 

With the exception of dairy products, the raw materials 

ii8 



FOOD PROCESSING II9 

for processed foods are all available in sufficient quantity 
within the national borders, or can be readily imported. (See 
Chapter II, "Agriculture.") 

Food processing should be considered as an intermediate 
step, carried out for the purpose of food preservation or for 
convenience or to satisfy consumer tastes and preferences, 
but not as a means of changing food values. While this view- 
point is not strictly true in all cases (for instance, dried 
prunes are not the exact equivalent of fresh prunes), it is the 
only general ground upon which a consideration of diet can 
be based. Otherwise, the statistical study of foods would be 
buried under a mass of detail having little bearing on the 
broad picture of the national food supply. 

Production of many processed foods is more closely re- 
lated to momentary effective demand than is the case with 
most manufactured goods. For instance, consider woolen 
textiles. The fabric may be woven a full year before its even- 
tual use by a consumer, and even the suit of clothes may be 
made six or nine months before it is sold. Compare this with 
ice cream or bread, made the day it is eaten. This difference 
also applies to such foods as fresh meats, butter, confec- 
tionery, and fish. By contrast, flour, cheese, canned foods, 
preserves, pickles, macaroni, and cured meats will keep for 
long periods, and are often produced in quantities far ex- 
ceeding immediate sales possibilities. This difference should 
be kept in mind in connection with production figures. 

With foods produced for immediate use, such as bread, 
production is likely to have some relation to consumer re- 
quirements, particularly when the product is low in price and 
is a staple. In the case of other foods of relatively high price, 
such as meats, this relation is evident only in times when con- 
sumers have sufficient buying power to purchase freely. With 
foods that keep over long periods — canned peaches, for 
example — production gives no clue as to what consumption 
should be. 



I20 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

The figures for "production" and "production value'' that 
were used in this survey of food processing have mostly been 
derived from the 1929 Census of Manufactures. In certain 
cases, however, figures from other sources have been used. 
The cane sugar refinery production given is that reported by 
the Sugar Institute. Figures for mayonnaise and salad dress- 
ings are as reported by the publication, The Spice Mill. Car- 
bonated beverage figures were supplied by the American 
Bottlers of Carbonated Beverages, a trade association. Alco- 
holic beverage figures are taken from reports of the Bureau 
of Industrial Alcohol and the Department of Internal Rev- 
enue. Oleomargarine, lard substitutes, vegetable oils, and 
animal fats are given as reported by the Bureau of Agricul- 
tural Economics. 

Slight modifications have been made in a number of 
cases (in which the census figures have been, in the main, 
adhered to) as a result of special information obtained 
from associations, publications, individuals, and government 
agencies. 

Obsolescence of food-processing equipment varies greatly 
in the various branches of the industry. According to a study 
made by the American Machinist,^ the machine equipment 
of the industry was forty-six per cent obsolete, or over ten 
years old, in 1929. This is the only general figure available 
for the food-processing group, but obviously it gives no de- 
pendable picture of obsolescence of the actual food process- 
ing equipment. In certain branches of the industry, estimates 
of the percentage of equipment over ten years old have been 
obtained directly from the users. In other branches, no such 
estimate can be given. 

The important obsolescence figures obtained, as of 1929, 
are given in the table shown on pp. 125 and 126. These esti- 
mates of obsolescence indicate that much old equipment ex- 
ists in food-processing plants and is used continually. In 

^American Machinist, 1930 — Inventory of Metal Working Equipment. 



FOOD PROCESSING 121 

many cases this fact does not limit production greatly. In 
flour mills, for example, to set a limit of a ten-year life for 
equipment would mean little, because equipment made ten 
years ago will produce at practically the same rate as if it 
were of the most modern design. This is also true in the meat- 
packing industry. 

In any case, in view of the ample capacity of the country 
to manufacture machinery, it would require but a few years 
to replace all equipment that was obsolete, should the need 
for modern equipment arise. But the actual capacity of food- 
processing plants is at present ample to supply the American 
population with processed foods as these requirements are 
set forth in the Department of Agriculture's "Liberal Diet" 
estimates. 

In this diet, processed grain foods such as flour, meal, 
breakfast foods, and macaroni are called for in a total 
amount of lOO pounds per capita per year. In 1929, we pro- 
duced over 32 billion pounds of these foods, exported less 
than 3 billion pounds, while we required for the "Liberal 
Diet" but 12^ billion pounds. The apparent great excess of 
production over the "Liberal Diet" requirement is perhaps 
due to the fact that, from the dietitian's point of view, the 
American population consumes a far greater quantity of 
starchy food than is necessary or healthful. 

Somewhat the same situation exists as to sugar. In 1929 
American production of sugar and other sweets, such as 
molasses and syrup, was approximately 15 billion pounds. 
The requirement, according to the "Liberal Diet," is 75^ 
billion pounds, or just half the amount. 

The "Liberal Diet" calls for ten pounds of evaporated 
milk per capita, but the industry actually produced twenty 
pounds per capita. However, the total milk production of the 
nation falls short of requirements (see Chapter II, "Agri- 
culture"), which should be kept in mind while reading this 
chapter on food processing. This figure on canned-milk pro- 



122 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

duction merely means that we process more of the total 
supply than the "Liberal Diet" calls for, the two forms of 
milk, fresh and canned, being interchangeable for dietary 
purposes. 

The production figure reported for dried fruits is over 
900 million pounds (the quantity of dried vegetables included 
in this figure is relatively small). The "Liberal Diet" esti- 
mate for dried fruits calls for more than twice this quantity 
to supply national needs. However, aside from citrus fruits, 
the total fruit grown in the country is only about sixty per 
cent of the requirement of the diet, so that the deficiency in 
dried fruit production is only a reflection of a deficiency in 
the national fruit supply. This deficiency is, in turn, probably 
a result of a divergence between popular taste and the re- 
quirements of the "Liberal Diet" — as people consume more 
starchy products than the diet calls for, so they consume less 
fruit. 

Meat and fish production is close to the diet requirement 
of less than 21 billion pounds. Whether there is a shortage 
or not depends upon how much waste and trimming there is 
in cutting up carcasses. Allowances made for waste have been 
extremely liberal, and American practice is at present being 
greatly improved. Fats, because of the large production of 
lard, are available in quantities exceeding the budget require- 
ments, although our studies of agriculture indicate a de- 
ficiency of one of the fats, butter. Packing-house (machine) 
capacity Is able to double the meat "through-put" if estab- 
lishments should go on a two-shift basis. 

When capacity to process foods Is viewed strictly from the 
standpoint of what the machinery can produce if limited 
solely by physical factors, and raw material supply is not 
taken into account, it is evident that the needs of our popula- 
tion for processed foods can be fully satisfied by the capacity 
of the food-processing plants. The only product capacity 
estimate that proves to be less than the requirements is that 



FOOD PROCESSING 1 23 

for dried fruits. The excess capacity to produce canned fruits, 
which can be substituted for dried fruit in the diet, makes this 
deficiency of little importance. 

No trustworthy estimates of machine capacity could be 
obtained for some of the branches of food processing, but it 
is evident from the following brief review that no important 
machine limitations on diet requirements existed in 
1929. 

Bakery products showed an unused capacity for bread 
baking of 43% ; for cake, nearly 90% ; and for cracker prod- 
ucts, 56%. 

Carbonated and other non-alcoholic beverages utilized 
only 33% of plant capacity. 

Canned fruits and vegetables could have been turned out 
in quantities four times as great as those actually produced 
if raw materials had been available to keep the machines 
busy throughout the year. This industry is essentially sea- 
sonal, and, for the season's duration, ran in 1929 at 90% of 
machine capacity. Additional cold storage would increase 
this capacity by lessening the seasonal effect. 

Candy factories ran at 72% of capacity. 

Chocolate and cocoa could have been produced in 18^ % 
greater quantity. 

Flour production used only 57% of plant capacity. 

M^«^packing plants, if operated at capacity for two 
shifts, could have turned out at least twice their output. 

Ice cream plants only turned out 37% of their capacity. 

Cane sugar refineries operated at 60% of capacity, while 
beet-sugar factories were at a 66% level. 

Fish, solely on the basis of the size of the American fish- 
ing fleet, could be caught in much greater quantities; but in 
any given year the factor of abundance of fish at the fishing 
grounds must be considered. On the basis of fleet size, the 
"catch" was 85% of capacity, but the boats themselves are 
being rapidly modernized. 



124 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

The above are the important manufactured goods for 
which no substitutes are available, or for which there is a 
definite need in the diet. Capacity to produce vegetable fats 
cannot be considered of importance in view of the great ex- 
cess of lard production. However, cottonseed oil, corn oil, 
peanut oil, and the imported oils such as cocoanut, can be 
produced, in the aggregate, at about 60% above 1929 pro- 
duction. 

Coffee-roasting equipment could turn out about 28% more 
of this popular beverage ingredient should such an increase 
be desired. In the year 1934 much up-to-date equipment was 
replacing obsolete roasters. 

The immediate future of the food-processing industry 
holds no promise of any startling developments, but rather 
indicates that present trends will be continued, with conse- 
quent increases in production capacity. The most important 
of these trends is the elimination of obsolete equipment. This 
activity goes on continually, but has been stimulated in recent 
months by the development of new methods and equipment 
that lower costs and improve the product. Improved heat 
economy of bakery ovens has been followed by a rapid re- 
placement of obsolete bakery equipment. In 1934 approxi- 
mately one-half of the obsolete equipment of the industry, 
which totaled 40%, was replaced. 

Improved ice-cream-freezing equipment that saves much 
time and turns out a better product, is being rapidly installed. 
New processes for turning cacao beans into cocoa and choco- 
late are being introduced. These are indications of what ap- 
pears to be a general trend. 

Another trend is the increasing substitution of quick- 
freezing for other methods of food preservation. More effi- 
cient methods have made possible an improvement in quality 
and flavor, as compared to the old methods of cold storage 
and "chilling." Quick-frozen foods tend to supplant canned 
foods, as they are nearer in taste and quality to the fresh 



FOOD PROCESSING 1 25 

product. Even such delicate foods as raspberries and sweet 
corn can now be preserved by this method. 

Another trend that affects food processing is the improve- 
ment in transportation that permits an ever-widening dis- 
tribution of southern-grown fresh products during the winter 
and spring. This increases the use of fresh foods and reduces 
our dependence upon canned fruits and vegetables. 

It is also evident that, in food processing, the tendency is 
to use larger units, more power, and more automatic meth- 
ods, thus increasing the output per man-hour of work. 

To sum up : It should be apparent that the existing food- 
processing equipment is adequate to meet the requirements 
of a liberal diet for the American people, and that factors 
at work within the industry are tending to increase the pro- 
ductive facilities of this industry. 

Graham L. Montgomery 



Processed Foods — 1929 

Production Per Cent ot 

(000 omitted) Equipment 
Over ID 

Product Quantity Value Years Old 

Biscuits, crackers, pretzels, etc. .. . 1,394,000 lbs. $ 281,764'! 

Bread, cake, other baked goods. . . 12,465,000 " 1,251,621/ ^° 

Macaroni, noodles, etc 555,620 " 47,074 

Beverages, non-alcoholic 406,438 gals. 270,323 5 

Beverages, alcoholic (tax paid) .. . 214,000 " 561733 
Canned vegetables, soup, and 

fruits 5,915,000 lbs. 

Pickles, sauces, jams, and pre- 
serves 1 . 737 > 000 " 

Dried fruits and vegetables 942,000 " 

Canned fish 623,000 " 

Cured fish 102,000 " / 101,000 

Confectionery 1,407,000 " 393,000 50 

Chewing gum 105,000 " 60,000 

Chocolate and cocoa products. .. . 552,000 " 119,541 50 

Flour (wheat) 122,798 bbls. \ ^ 

Flour (rye, corn, etc.) 13,075 " / 1,060,000 

Feeds, animal (grain) 7,667 tons 403,000 

Breakfast cereals 3,110,000 lbs. 175,000 

Malt 1,174,000 " 24,000 

Rice and by-products 1,420,000 " 48,796 

Ice, manufactured 44,477 tons 210,952 



722,000 



126 



Product 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. 

Processed Foods — 1929 (Continued) 

Production 
(000 omitted) 
Quantity 



C. 



Value 



Fresh and cured meat (except 
sausage) 

Lard 

Poultry, fresh and canned by pack- 
ing houses* 

Sausage 

Tee cream and other frozen sweets 

Canned milk 

Powdered milk 

Ice cream mix 

Casein 

Other milk products 

Mayonnaise, sandwich spread. . . . 

Salad dressings 

Vegetable shortenings and cooking 
oils 

Oleomargarine, butter substitutes. 

Sugar (cane and beet) 

Molasses 

Syrups (cane, maple, sorghum) . . . 

Yeast and baking powder 

Coffee, tea and spices 

Corn products (oil, starch, syrup, 
etc.) 

Cottonseed oil 

Flavors, extracts, colors, gelatins, 
fruit syrups 

Nuts (processed, shelled, salted) . . . 

Fish, fresh (as caught) 

Miscellaneous, including cider, 
vinegar, prepared desserts, health 
and infant foods 

Total valuet 



16,803,000 lbs. ) 
2,598,000 " J 



Per Cent of 

Equipment 

Over 10 

Years Old 



5,150,000 



381,000 " 


130,000 


435,000 " 


108,000 


280,000 gals. 


328,000 


2,317,000 lbs. 




289,000 " 




137,000 " 


\ 220,000 


58,000 " 




7,000 " , 




12,805 gals. 


22,067 


3,118 " 


5,200 


1,754,000 lbs. 


154,553 


356,000 lbs. 


60,415 


13,002,366 " 


634,267 


2,643,044 " 


18,482 


311,660 " 


32.513 


541.145 " 


52,337 


1,321,000 " 


450,245 


3,432,000 " 


166,000 


1,584,000 " 


298,376 


855.423 " 


136,601 


667,000 " 


67,600 


3,567,000 " 


123,054 


(Total weight 




cannot be 




given) 


179,662 




113,562,176 



75 



40 



95 



50 



60 



60 



* This poultry includes only that slaughtered at packing houses. The total 
poultry "kill" was 1,208,066,000 lbs., valued at ^411,928,000. 

t Total value of processed foods given is either the value at plant, or, when 
these figures are obtainable, the cost to wholesalers. This figure does not represent 
cost to consumers. It also contains duplication, as, for instance, much of the 
chocolate and cocoa products are used by the confectionery and bakery products 
manufacturers and enter into the value of the finished candy and baked goods. 



CHAPTER X 

CONSTRUCTION 

That department of the construction industry which has 
to do with residences or human shelter is conspicuous for its 
backwardness. WiUiam James, quoting H. G. Wells, pointed 
out some twenty-six years ago that "a house today is still al- 
most as ill-ventilated, badly heated by wasteful fires, clumsily 
arranged and furnished as the house of 1858. Houses a 
couple of hundred years old are still satisfactory places of 
residence, so little have our standards risen." In contrast, 
society's technique for making war goes forward at a rate 
so rapid that the "rifle or battleship of fifty years ago was 
beyond all comparison inferior to those we possess; in power 
or speed, in convenience alike. No one has any use now for 
such superannuated things!"-^ 

This difference between the rate of progress in home- 
building and in war-waging has increased since the above was 
written — and is still increasing. Yet this condition can hardly 
be blamed on the fact that home-building is a private enter- 
prise whereas war-making is a social function, since other 
private enterprises can be cited which are not conspicuously 
backward. 

This backwardness, however, has a direct bearing on our 
study of capacities. "Excess capacity" cannot be estimated in 
the building industry under Definition B (see Foreword), 
since the "existing plant" is, in no sense, a limiting factor on 
society's ability to construct. Like farming, fishing, lumber- 
ing, and other enterprises which are also relatively unaffected 
by the industrial or technological revolution of the last cen- 
tury and a half, capacity to build homes will have to be esti- 

^ William James, "The Moral Equivalent of War"; p. 294. 

127 



128 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

mated from the availability of supplies and man-power 
instead of from the designed operating rate of existing 
equipment. 

Before considering the statistical evidence relating to the 
problem of shelter, the relationship of shelter to other hu- 
man needs should be noted. 

(a) The living standard in the United States is low, only 
some fractional percentage of what American custom con- 
siders comfortable. Its inadequacy is due neither to a lack 
of food nor to a deficiency of clothing. The 1929 diet, though 
badly proportioned and lacking in vitamins, was nevertheless 
quite the most generous ever enjoyed by a whole people, and 
ample to sustain a high physical standard of life. The cloth- 
ing provided by our underworked looms and spindles was 
sufficient to conserve bodily warmth. The miserable life 
standard of the American people was due (excluding con- 
genital and psychical factors as outside the scope of this 
Survey) to the inadequate, unaesthetic — even degrading — 
shelters in which a large part of our population was forced to 
live. 

Therefore, any attempt to raise the standard of life by 
creating a more favorable environment must be initiated by 
a wholesale remodeling of the living quarters of the popula- 
tion. In other words, it would be useless or nearly useless to 
provide a better diet, warmer and more decorative clothes, 
or adequate educational and sanitary services, unless houses 
fit to live in had first been put at the disposal of the popula- 
tion. Silk stockings, savory cooking, thought-provoking read- 
ing matter — even good manners — are difficult or useless in 
squalid hovels. 

Consequently, although the conclusions of the rest of the 
Survey are soundly based upon empirical evidence, it will be 
possible to take advantage of the "unused capacities," which 
promise a comfortable standard of hfe for the whole people, 



CONSTRUCTION 1 29 

only when homes fit for decent living shall have been con- 
structed. 

(b) Sixty per cent of the people are not financially able 
to live in a proper house. Most of them exist in cast-off, dis- 
carded rich men's shelters or in jerry-built houses or shacks. 
Except for the forty per cent of the population who have an 
annual Income of two thousand dollars or more per family, 
most of the city people are compelled to live in buildings 
which have outlived the purpose for which they were built. 

Frederick L. Ackerman stated In a recent paper : "A large 
percentage of our population, between one-half and two- 
thirds, cannot occupy any of the habitations produced by 
the industrial system in which this half to two-thirds func- 
tion, until sufficient time has elapsed to bring the structures 
into the requisite degree of obsolescence and physical decay." 
An annual income of less than two thousand dollars is in- 
sufficient to allow, under our present Institutional arrange- 
ments, for the deduction of rent on a modern home, so the 
sixty per cent must wait until a house become dilapidated 
has been "marked down." 

This situation is novel and unprecedented. It did not exist 
in pioneer days nor does It exist on the frontier today. Men 
still build new houses for themselves in the Peace River Val- 
ley. But in the settled country it is only rarely — and then 
due to exceptional circumstances — that new homes for the 
great majority of the population can, under our economic 
system, be constructed. 

The result is the distinguishing ugliness which marks most 
modern communities. This is probably not due to a lack of 
taste but rather to the fact that so many buildings were built 
for one purpose and have come to be used for another. The 
ef][ect Is much the same as though a community had to clothe 
itself in ragmen's bargains. Former finery, whether In silk 
or stone, is seldom becoming even to a destitute person. 



130 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table I 

Construction Industry* 

(000,000 Omitted) 

1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 
Building 

Commercial $ 1,101 $ 1,015 $ 1,102 $ 870 I 377 $ 158 $ 14S 

Factory 583 728 896 315 141 55 187 

Educational 448 458 451 460 277 105 59 

Hospitals and institutions 191 189 179 19S 147 62 54 

Public buildings 93 87 143 171 219 152 75 

Religious and memorial 184 147 125 114 64 35 26 

Social and recreational 308 245 165 138 120 50 45 

Farm construction 473 463 463 367 258 125 13s 

Sub-total $3,381 $3,332 $3,524 $2,633 $1603, $ 742 $ 726 

Residential 3.035 3.199 2,262 i,349 oSi 359 364 

Sub-total 6,416 6,531 5,786 3.982 2,584 1,101 1,090 

Construction 

Railroads 600 452 532 544 289 131 88 

Electric power 794 754 853 919 597 285 200 

Telephone and telegraph 466 530 740 736 482 294 201 

Electric railroad 205 194 194 189 155 98 100 

Gas and water works — — 280 269 200 120 120 

Highways and bridges 798 888 887 1,071 1,047 1,000 1,100 

Federal Public Works 256 274 308 325 474 567 500 

Sewerage 118 loi 88 82 73 25 22 

Sub-total $9,653 $9,724 $9,668 $8,117 $5,901 $3,621 $3.42t 

M MNTENANCE 

Buildingst 2,7So 2,750 2,250 1,625 1,250 1,250 1,500 

Railroads 895 861 877 723 544 361 322 

Electric power 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 

Highways and bridges 377 419 434 476 423 450 450 

Telephone and telegraph 191 210 243 248 221 208 207 

Sub-total $4,313 $4,340 $3,904 $3,172 $2,538 $2,349 $2,559 

Grand Total $13,966 $14,064 $13,572 $11,289 $8,439 $S,97o $5,980 

* Sources: F. W. Dodge Corporation, Engineering News-Record, Commercial and Financial Chronicle, 
Bureau of Labor Statistics, I.C.C. Reports, Federal Employment Stabilization Board, and other 
government publications. 

t Estimated. 

Table I gives the total construction expenditures of the 
nation for the past seven years. The amounts are given in 
dollar values current in each year. It is noteworthy that resi- 
dential buildings, with which the preceding remarks were 
concerned, vary in amount between a minimum in 1933 of 
six per cent and a maximum in 1928 of twenty-two per cent 
of the total annual construction. 

Our Survey dealt with "product capacity" in its bearing 
on consumer satisfaction. The various industries studied 
have been exhibiting, with few exceptions, an adequacy to 
satisfy vastly increased needs, and promise a veritable abun- 
dance to the people of this nation, if physical factors were 



CONSTRUCTION 131 

the only limitations on production. A portion of the building 
industry caters to the people as consumers. It supplies a very 
necessary and desirable "consumer satisfaction." Therefore, 
In seeking to discover what the building industry could ac- 
complish, it would seem reasonable to consign whatever 
capacity is left, after general industrial maintenance, replace- 
ments, and improvements have been taken care of, to home 
building and such supplementary structures as schools, water- 
works, highways, etc., which would be required if new resi- 
dential districts were opened, or old districts rebuilt to mod- 
ern standards. 

Table I indicates that over eight billion dollars' worth of 
effort could now be diverted to residential construction and 
maintenance, even though other building continued at the 
1932 and 1933 level, if we tentatively assume that the 1928 
total of 14 billion is the "building capacity" of this nation. 

However, the above rough estimate is unsatisfactory be- 
cause the ability to construct water-works, railroads, etc., 
does not necessarily indicate the ability to erect homes and 
because the production of 1928, the maximum year, may be 
far short of our capacity to construct. 

In order to come to closer grips with the problem. Tables 
II, III, IV, and V have been prepared.^ 

Table II gives the total dwelling units constructed from 
1920 to 1932. Over 600,000 were built in 1928; only iio,- 
723 in 1932. The average number of dwelling units built 
each year, from 1920 to 1932, is 389,440 which, if we ac- 
cept the Census figure of 28 million dwelling units in exis- 
tence in 1929, gives a replacement rate of 1.34%, a low rate 
even were the American people properly housed, but an 
utterly absurd rate when only a small fraction of the people 
are decently sheltered. 

Table III shows the breakdown of the existing American 
homes according to value. More than 33% of the total non- 

^ For Tables IV and V see Appendix. 



132 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table II 
Dwellings Built by Contract 

Total United States 

Number of Units Built Total 

Year Contracts Under ContractJ Dwelling Units§ 

1920* 28,966 108,909 170,007 

1921* 49.4-1 161,957 252,815 

1922* 72,996 246,478 384,752 

1923* 71,536 280,381 437,674 

1924* 77,713 293,839 458,683 

1925! 127,678 396,914 619,582 

I926t 120,473 369,653 577,028 

I927t 128,436 350,858 547.690 

I928t 139,133 403,214 629,417 

1929! 110,998 275,049 429,352 



Sub-total.... 927,350 2,887,252 4,507,000 

i93ot 74.713 149,791 233,824 

I93it 63,834 135.278 211,169 

I932t 38,057 70,931 110,723 



Total 1,103,954 3,243,252 5,062,716 

* 27 States, F. W. Dodge. 

t 37 States, F. W. Dodge. 

J Assuming each dwelling is 1550 sq. ft. and that reports from 27 States equal 
81.5% of total and those from 37 States equal 91%. 

§ Contract dwellings (private and farm dwellings were added to obtain an agree- 
ment with the totals of the Census figures, 4,507,000, 1920 to 1929). 

farm homes are worth less than $2500, and would rent, as- 
suming the annual rental to be 10% of the value, at $250 
per year or less. This amounts to $4 per room per month or 
less. Obviously, this entire category, amounting to 7 million 
homes, Is a part of that class described above as "not ade- 
quate." No builder can erect urban houses to rent for less 
than $4 per room. No owner can or does run up modern 
urban homes for $500 per room. With the exception of a 
few million frame shacks built usually In the vicinity of fac- 
tories to house the labor force, the ten million are old houses 
that have been allowed to run down, eventually becoming 
either multiple houses (tenements) or shabby relics of past 
days. 

Probably many non-farm, or urban, houses In the $3500 
owned class and the $3100 rented class, as well as the ma- 
jority of the farm homes (whose average value Is only 







CONSTRUCTION 




133 






Table III 










Value of Averag 


;e Home — 1929* 










Owned, Non-Farm 






Number 


Unit Value 


Total Value 




Repairst 




794.724 


t 750 


$ 596,043,000 


$ 


11,920,860 




570,047 


1,250 


712,559,000 




14.251. 175 




531,277 


1.750 


929,735,000 




18,594,700 




1.167,325 


2,500 


2,918,312,000 




58,366,240 




2,343.769 


3.500 


8,203,191,000 




164,063,820 




2,297,029 


6,250 


14,356,431,000 




287,128,620 




989,468 


8,750 


8,657,845,000 




173,156,900 




1,600,429 


15,000 


24,006,435,000 




480,128,700 




209,318 


5.500 


1,151,249,000 




23,024,980 


Total 


10,503,386 




$ 6i,53i,8oo,ooo§ 


$1 


.230,635,995 


Average 




$5,853 






I117 






Rented, Non-FarraJ 








1.563.952 


f 900 


$ 1,407,557,000 


$ 


28,151,140 




1,330,927 


1,440 


1.916,535.000 




38,330,700 




1,302,387 


2,100 


2,735,012,000 




54,700,240 




2,545,208 


3,100 


7,890,145,000 




157,802,900 




3. 191.435 


4,800 


15,318,888,000 




306,377,760 




1,503,401 


7,500 


11,275,507,000 




225,510,140 




343,071 


10,500 


3,602,245,000 




72,044,900 




255.339 


18,000 


4,596,102,000 




91,922,040 




315,82911 
12,351.549 


4,000 


1,263,316,000 




22,108,020 


Total 




$ 50,005,307,000 


P 


,000,106,140 


Average 




14,048 






$80 






Total Non-Farm Homes 






Total 


22,854,935 


?4,88o 


?i I I, 537, 107,000 


$2 


,230,742,135 


Average 










?98 






Total Farm Homes 






Total 


6,288,648 




$ 7,083,500,00011 


$ 


141,670,000 


Average 




|I,I26 






?23 



Total 

All Homes 29 , 1 43 , 5 83 

*Source: Fifteenth Census, "Construction Industry." 

t On basis that repair equals 2% of value. 

X On basis that rent equals 10% of value. 

§ Rental — $6,153,000,000 (Imputed income owned Non-Farm Homes) 

II Rental — $708,350,000 (Imputed income Farm Homes) 

If Value not given in Census. Average value of all houses has been taken. 

$1,126), are also in need of renovation or replacement. 
However, the ten million non-farm homes valued at $2500 
or less, are obviously the point of attack since there is no 
question that rooms which rent for less than $4 per month 



134 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

in the American town of average size do not afford decent 
living conditions. 

A picture of housing conditions taken from another angle 
was recently revealed by the Bureau of Foreign and Domes- 
tic Commerce's Real Property Inventory. This dwelling-to- 
dwelling survey, which was taken in 64 urban districts and 
which, it is believed, was a fair sampling of our 28 million 
dwelling units, indicates that in the entire country, we have : 

556,900 units unfit for human habitation 
1,715,700 units in need of structural repair 
1,821,200 units without inside running water 
3,900,500 units without indoor toilets 
5,315,700 units without bath facilities, either shower 

or tub 
6,049,400 units in which cooking is done by fuels other 

than gas or electricity 
13,748,900 structures that are built of wood. 

Our farm homes are no better equipped than our urban 
dwellings, but their improving is less imperative not only 
because isolated houses can do without certain modern con- 
veniences with less hardship than city homes, but because 
farmers are in a better position to renovate their own homes, 
once their general economic condition has been straightened 
out. 

Our study of product capacity in the construction division 
was therefore directed to answer the question whether men 
and supplies are available to do the following: 

( 1 ) Build each year 1,000,000 homes in which to rehouse 
the population and thereby replace with modern residences 
the ten million homes in which an American standard of 
life cannot be maintained 

(2) Build each year the 450,000 urban homes needed to 
house the normal growth of the town and city population 

(3) Build each year the 100,000 (estimated) new farm 



I 



CONSTRUCTION 1 35 

homes necessary to take care of the increasing rural popula- 
tion 

(4) Provide each year the equivalent of 200,000 homes 
needed to keep the existing homes in repair. (These homes, 
of course, will not be built. Only the labor and materials 
which they represent are considered.) 

(5) Construct the highways, water systems, sewerage, 
telephones, etc., needed to service these homes. And finally, 
can we at the same time 

(6) Renew non-residential construction at the rate set 
in 1929? 

Tables IV and V-^ summarize the results of this inquiry. 
They are not satisfactory from the engineer's point of view, 
owing to the limitations of our capacity Definition B, which 
precludes the use of hitherto unused materials or new tech- 
niques, and the employment of plants or resources that were 
not included in our capacity figures. 

However, despite these limitations, the practicability of 
constructing 1,550,000 homes a year is clearly shown. The 
only deficiencies which appear are in brick and gypsum, both 
of which materials we could, without diflSculty, supply in 
desired quantities, since : 

(a) Many towns have their idle pressed-brick plants, 
which could be operated in case brick were needed. Existing 
equipment of this character could take up much of the slack 
until more modern plants were erected. Modern stiff-mud 
brick plants of capacities adequate to meet all needs could 
be erected and equipped within a year or so to produce this 
needed building material from the practically unlimited de- 
posits of plastic clays which occur almost everywhere in the 
United States. 

(b) Sand-lime brick, cement brick, or stone can be sub- 
stituted for clay brick in case a temporary shortage should 
develop. 

' See Appendix. 



136 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

(c) There are almost unlimited deposits of gypsum that 
could be recovered and processed if an effective demand 
should develop. 

The apparent shortage of labor is of the same nature. 
1,505,800 men are needed, using traditional, obsolete build- 
ing methods. On April i, 1930, 2,574,968 men reported 
themselves as part of the building industry labor forces.^ 

Although there might be a shortage of certain skilled 
craftsmen, this could quickly be remedied. The evolution of 
technology employed in building follows the general line. 
The more advanced the methods, the fewer skilled men are 
required and the fewer man-hours required for each unit 
of value of the finished product. Consequently, any shortage 
would soon be nullified by using more advanced technologi- 
cal methods. 

The matter of furnishing these homes has been taken into 
account on the Flow-Sheet and is shown in detail in Tables 
XV, XVI, and XVII.^ There is no problem with regard to 
the heavy fixtures. Our capacity to produce plumbing, light- 
ing, and heating fixtures has never, in the years studied, been 
approached. Two-shift operation of manufacturing plants 
would not only permit equipping the new homes with mod- 
ern fixtures but would also permit the gradual instal- 
lation of modern equipment in the better of the existing 
homes. 

The 1929 rate of highway construction is adequate to pro- 
vide road communication for the new homes. Public and 
private utility construction would not be taxed by the addi- 
tional burden, since the rate of construction, set in 1928, 
seems ample to keep pace with any home-building program 
for which materials and skilled labor can be found. 

Lastly, the possibility of using old building materials in 
new houses provides a safety margin which precludes the 

' U. S. Census, 1930, Volume V, pp. 424-426. 
' See Appendix, 



CONSTRUCTION I37 

possibility of being held up for supplies. Certain materials 
such as stone are often more suitable when weathered or 
"softened." Others, such as plumbing fixtures, can be sent 
back to the furnaces to emerge as new steel, brass, or lead. 
Old furniture and rugs, even of no particular historical pe- 
riod, are often preferred to new. 

So it seems reasonable to conclude, if physical factors 
were the only hmitation on our ability to construct, that: 

(a) The homes of America could be replaced at the rate 
of 1,550,000 a year. 

(b) The new homes could be of modern design, well- 
equipped, and constructed of materials which would outlast 
the present century. 

(c) This building program could be continued without 
let-up until the American people were housed in a fashion 
which would permit them to enjoy the comfortable standard 
of life sometimes known as "American," and that 

(d) This rate of home building could be obtained with- 
out causing any restriction of necessary construction in other 
lines. 

Harold Loeb 



DERIVATION OF CONSTRUCTION TABLES 

Table I. Cost estimates for the building industry were 
obtained from (a), the F. W. Dodge Corporation reports 
on contracts awarded in 37 states, and from (b), the reports 
of the Commercial & Financial Chronicle for the eleven 
western states not covered by the Dodge reports. This total 
cost was then proportionally raised to cover the entire coun- 
try. To the figures obtained in this manner was added an 
amount representing farm construction, obtained from data 
published by the Federal Employment Stabihzation Board. 

This method may be considered arbitrary, but the lack 
of any set of complete statistics has made some such proce- 



138 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

dure unavoidable. It does not seem possible that independ- 
ently compiled figures on building costs could be within five 
per cent of one another. Still, no divergence of this order 
could be important to a picture that purports to represent 
only the volume and trend of the industry. However, we 
checked our results against every available source and found 
a satisfactory correspondence. 

In the division of heavy construction, the figures covering 
railroad construction and maintenance were obtained from 
"A Review of Railway Operation in 1933," which is No. 62 
of a series of reviews issued by the Bureau of Railway Eco- 
nomics. 

The Edison Electric Institute furnished figures to cover 
new construction and maintenance in the electric power and 
light industry. 

The sources of the figures covering telephone and tele- 
graph were the American Telephone & Telegraph Co., the 
Western Union Telegraph Co., and the Postal Telegraph 
Co. 

Statistics covering electric railways were obtained from 
the Federal Employment Stabilization Board. 

Gas and water-works construction costs were compiled 
from statistics furnished by the American Gas Association 
and the Engineering News-Record^ which publication also 
gave us data on the cost of sewerage. 

The expenditures for highways and bridges were compiled 
from "An Economic Survey of Motor Vehicle Transporta- 
tion," which is No. 60 of a series of reviews issued by the 
Bureau of Railway Economics. We estimated cost data for 
1932 and 1933, but we followed our rule of choosing the 
most conservative amount. 

Federal Public Works costs were taken from the statistics 
of the Federal Employment Stabilization Board as pub- 
lished in the Journal of the American Statistical Association 
for March, 1933. 



CONSTRUCTION 1 39 

Records may exist from which some reasonable estimate 
of the cost of building maintenance, not requiring official 
inspection, may be obtained, but none is available in statisti- 
cal form. Still, the total amount must be so large that it 
should not be neglected. No claim of precision is made 
for the figures we adopted but they are, in any case, con- 
servative. 

In brief, our figures were arrived at by adopting an esti- 
mate of 25 million^ dwelling units, each containing five 
rooms. We assumed that $5 per room would be spent an- 
nually in painting, papering, and the like, under the condi- 
tions of "least expenditure." (For prosperous years, such as 
was 1929, this unit cost would probably have to be doubled. ) 
For the average year, this $5 per room would give us a total 
of $625,000,000 as the cost of maintenance, checking reason- 
ably with the information obtained from the Russell Sage 
Foundation on projects of the New York State Housing 
Board which indicates an amount of $10 to $13 as the cost of 
construction maintenance, and with the estimate of Mr. E. 
L. Gilbert, writing in the American Builder for February, 
1934, who states that the repairs needed for residential 
properties varied from $2,581,000,000 in 1927 to $2,953,- 
000,000 in 1934. 

Table II. The published figures of the F. W. Dodge 
Corporation (covering 27 states for the years 1920 to 1928, 
and 37 states for the years 1925 to 1932) were taken as 
the basis of Table II. The contract figures, as reported by 
the same authority, which are the most complete figures 
available, are broken down into : ( i ) the number of hous- 
ing developments; (2) the number of dwellings built by 
owners; (3) two-family houses; (4) apartments, and (5) 
hotels. We then assumed that the average cost of an apart- 
ment, dwelling unit, or the dwelling units in a two-family 

^Eliminating 4 million homes as too run-down to paint, paper, etc. 



I40 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

home, was the same as the average cost of a detached home 
built by its owner. This assumption made possible an esti- 
mate of the number of dwelling units, represented by the 
total of housing contracts. 

We also assumed that the floor area of each dwelling unit 
was 1550 square feet, and divided by this unit area the total 
square feet in the dwellings constructed, thus obtaining the 
number of dwelling units constructed each year. 

When this was done, we had the figure 2,888,059, which 
represented the total dwelling units "built under contract" 
in the years from 1920 to 1929. But the Bureau of the Cen- 
sus reports 4,507,762 as the increase in the number of dwell- 
ings built in these years. So, if we multiply the annual number 
of contracts by the ratio of the figures given (4,507,762 
divided by 2,888,059), we arrive at a figure representing 
the dwelling units built each year. 

These results are given in Table II. (The Census figures 
count tents, boats, and shacks as dwellings, but since an apart- 
ment is counted only as a single dwelling, it would seem rea- 
sonable to assume that their estimate of the increase in 
dwellings is at least a rough measure of the increase in dwell- 
ing units.) 

Table III. A minimum of 450,000 dwelling units will be 
necessary to house the normal annual growth of the urban 
population, and 100,000 farm homes for the rural popula- 
tion. At least 200,000 urban dwelling units would be required 
as the construction equivalent to the maintenance and repair 
of the existing houses. The normal growth of the popula- 
tion and maintenance will then account for the construction 
of about 750,000 dwelling units per year — houses absolutely 
necessary before any real reconstruction of our national hous- 
ing plant can be considered. 

Out of the 29,243,000 existing dwelling units, about 
7,257,000 (owned non-farm homes below $2500 in value, 



CONSTRUCTION I4I 

and rented non-farm homes below $2 100 In value) fall below 
a decent "American" standard and should be replaced. If we 
should outline a ten-year program of construction, it would 
mean the building of about 1,000,000 housing units per year. 
Thus, our program must provide for the building of a mini- 
mum of 1,550,000 family units per year, in order ultimately 
to house our population properly and decently. 

Tables IV and V (Appendix). Our calculations of the 
labor requirements for carrying out the building program 
outlined above have been based upon the labor scheduled for 
the construction of the several family units listed in Table V. 
This same study was also the basis for calculating the ma- 
terials required for completing the building program. 

PoMEROY C. Merrill 



HOUSING BUDGET 

We have estimated that we can build 1,550,000 new 
dwelling units per year at a cost of $6,000 per unit. (We 
have allowed for maintenance the equivalent, in labor and 
materials, of 200,000 additional homes.) Only 1,000,000 of 
these new structures are considered as replacement dwellings. 
The remaining 550,000 homes, 450,000 urban and 100,000 
rural, will be needed to house the normal increase in popu- 
lation. 

When considered from the angle of monetary national in- 
come, it is necessary to express the housing budget in terms 
of rent. Ten per cent of the 1929 value of our dwellings has 
been taken as their rental value. In 1929, the rental value 
of existing urban homes totaled 11,128 million dollars, and 
that of farm homes 708 million dollars — a total of 11,836 
million dollars. 

To compute the rental value per unit of the proposed new 



142 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

buildings, we must add to the $6,000 per unit given above 
a sum which will represent the value of the land. This is so 
dependent on speculative factors, location, etc., that accurate 
figures cannot be obtained. Therefore, we have arbitrarily 
assumed that the land will cost $2,000 for an urban home, 
$1,000 per apartment for an apartment dwelling, and $200 
per unit for a farm home. The computed average comes to 
$1,500 per structure which amount we have added to the 
above value of the building. This gives us a total value of 
$7,500 per dwelling. The average rent per unit for these 
dwellings is therefore $750. 

Since, under these proposals, 1,000,000 sub-standard 
buildings are to be replaced each year with new structures, 
it is assumed that these old buildings will be demolished. 
The rent paid for them must therefore be deducted from 
the 1929 rent bill, 11,836 million dollars, given above. By 
dividing into different classifications, according to value, all 
1929 dwellings, both urban and rural, and then arbitrarily 
setting aside a group of 10,000,000 buildings culled from 
the lower value classifications, we arrive at a total value of 
approximately twenty billion dollars for these ten million 
sub-standard homes. The value of 1,000,000 such homes 
(the number we propose to replace each year) is therefore 
two billion dollars. Hence the rental value, or 10% of this 
amount, is $200,000,000. This sum, then, is the yearly 
amount which must be deducted from the 1929 rent bill of 
11,836 million dollars before it can be included as an item 
in the proposed housing budget. Therefore, this sum now 
becomes 11,636 million dollars and can now be included in 
our budget. 

This sum, plus 10% of the value of the buildings we pro- 
pose to build, becomes (for the first year of our budget pro- 
posal) the total expenditure for housing. The accompanying 
table itemizes and sums up this first year budget: 



CONSTRUCTION 1 43 

Housing Budget, First Year 

Adjusted 1929 rent bill $11,636,000,000 

Rental at 10% on 1,000,000 replacement homes @ $7,500 750,000,000 

Rental at 10% on 450,000 new urban homes @ $7,500. . . 337,000,000 

Rental at 10% on 100,000 new farm homes @ $3,200. . . . 32,000,000 

Total $12,755,000,000 

To arrive at the total rent figure for each succeeding year 
of the proposed ten-year period, we need only subtract the 
200 million dollars resulting from the demolition program 
from the first item, and then add to each preceding year's 
total the annual rent increases which result from the proposed 
building program, or the sum of the last three items in the 
above table, which equals 919 miUion dollars. 

Felix J. Frazer 



CHAPTER XI 

PRINTING, PUBLISHING, AND 
ALLIED INDUSTRIES 

Printing and publishing, together with the trades that are 
allied with them, constitute a great industry which in 1929 
employed nearly a half-million people at salaries and wages 
and attained a total production value of more than two and 
one-half billion dollars. To the number of those directly em- 
ployed in these industries should perhaps be added the large 
number of persons who, without direct contractual relations, 
prepared free-lance copy from which type was set, or who 
made drawings from which printing plates were produced. 

These industries are engaged in furnishing essential tools 
to two of the main emprises of civilized society, education and 
recreation. 

The epistemological contents of the printed page does not 
affect the mechanical means of production, whereas the equip- 
ment suitable for one class of work (books) is distinct from 
that best adapted to another (periodicals). This study, tak- 
ing into primary consideration the physical factors of tech- 
nical procedure, has therefore classified these industries into 
three main divisions: (a) Newspapers and periodicals, (b) 
Books and pamphlets, (c) Commercial and job printing. 

Allied industries include bookbinding, blank-book mak- 
ing, engraving, chasing, etching, die-sinking, plate printing, 
lithography, stereotyping, electrotyping, type-founding, and 
the manufacture of engraver's and printer's materials. 

Newspaper presses are very generally run on a double- 
shift basis, except in a few of the large metropolitan dailies 
where three shifts are often scheduled. This also applies to 
linotype machines and other contributing equipment. Hours 
worked per shift per week have averaged during the last few 

144 



PRINTING, PUBLISHING AND ALLIED INDUSTRIES 1 45 

years between 40 and 45. Book and pamphlet presses and 
job-printing presses, together with their contributing equip- 
ment, are generally run on a one-shift basis because of lack 
of a steady effective demand for their products. In their case, 
therefore, the single shift is the direct outgrowth of a lim- 
ited effective demand. 

No exact figures to express the ratio of production to ca- 
pacity can be given. Many authoritative studies, however, 
seem to agree that the production of newspapers and periodi- 
cals is probably not far from the actual physical capacity 
of the equipment, but that the production of books and pam- 
phlets, and also job printing, could be enormously expanded 
with little, if any, additional equipment. 

These general conclusions were reached after a compila- 
tion and collation of data from some twenty different sources. 
A very thorough check-up on plants supplying the printing 
industry with equipment supplemented this research. Virtually 
all such plants were found to be running at a very low pro- 
duction rate. A small sampling of representative printing 
establishments was also taken in order to estimate the factor 
of obsolescence in equipment. In several instances this was 
found to be appreciable. The conclusion was, therefore, in- 
escapable that there are few physical limitations to the out- 
put of the printing and publishing industry. Potential capacity 
has certainly no limitations and must consequently be studied 
from the angle of needs and desires — in other words, from 
some estimate of "reading capacity" of the population. To 
estimate this reading capacity as well as to measure produc- 
tion, some yardstick had to be adopted. The annual produc- 
tion of newspapers and periodicals was measured in terms 
of circulation figures, and the production of books and 
pamphlets by the total number of copies printed per year. 
(It was found that the measurement of commercial and job 
printing — items having no discoverable common denomina- 
tor — was best expressed by the dollar value of products.) 



146 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

By comparing, in the first two classifications, computed 
production against total population, some idea of consumer 
"reading capacity" was offered. N. W. Ayer's "Directory of 
Newspapers and Periodicals," Editor and Publisher, "Stand- 
ard Rate and Data Service," and similar sources were studied 
to arrive at newspaper and periodical production figures — 
but it was soon apparent that differing categories, classifica- 
tions, and percentages made the figures difficult to resolve. 
The Bureau of the Census figures finally proved the most 
practical. 

It was computed that more than 19,985,000,000 copies 
of newspapers and periodicals were distributed in the year 
1929. (In reality, the actual production probably exceeded 
the twenty billion mark, since the first figure, following the 
customary practice of compiling circulation statistics, does 
not include leftovers, unsold copies, advertisers' exchange, 
or file copies.) There were, in addition, 113 other publica- 
tions in the newspaper and periodical class for which no 
yearly output could be determined because their frequency 
of publication was not disclosed by the Bureau of the Census. 
These had an average circulation per issue of 19,000 copies. 

Newspapers have already attained a wide coverage. Cir- 
culation now current shows an output averaging one and 
one-sixteenth newspapers for every family^ in the country 
each day of the week, and all but 6,000,000 families are 
buying Sunday papers. "There is," says Editor and Pub- 
lisher, "no wider circulation of any article of commerce, ex- 
cept the actual necessities of life." 

Distribution was even more general in 1925. In that year, 
there was one daily paper for every three inhabitants, a 
Sunday paper for every four, and a weekly paper for every 
seven.^ 

^ Figuring four persons to a family. 

'"'Productivity of Labor in Newspaper Printing," a Department of Labor 
Bulletin. 



PRINTING, PUBLISHING AND ALLIED INDUSTRIES 1 47 

In books and periodicals, however, the pendulum swings 
in the other direction. True, the industry produces a wealth 
of volumes and magazines, judging by the vast array of sub- 
ject matter, but in these two categories distribution is, never- 
theless, far from thorough. Only a few books in history have 
ever attained the million mark in number of copies pro- 
duced, while only a couple of dozen have reached 500,000. 
Considering our population, it is evident that only a small 
portion of our people ever read any one book or magazine. 

In this classification, it was found that 235,360,032 books 
and 199,835,801 pamphlets were produced in 1929, a total 
of 435,195,833. In 1927, the total was even higher: 470,- 
374,947 books and pamphlets having been released from 
the presses in that year. Any estimate of our capacity to 
produce books and pamphlets would involve too many fac- 
tors of uncertain magnitude. In any case, in 1929, our ca- 
pacity to produce printing equipment was not less than twice 
our actual production. The "bottleneck," if one exists, would 
be found in the paper industry, but that difficulty could be 
avoided by imports of paper in the event that a substitute for 
domestic wood pulp was not developed. 

Printing and Publishing Industry, 1929 

Approximate Capacity 

Production Production Values Production 

Newspapers and periodicals .. . 19,985,000,000* $1,480,000,000! (See text) 

Books and pamphlets 435,000,000 190,000,000 At least 

double 

Commercial and job printingl. 930,000,000 

Total value of industry $2,600,000,000 

Allied industries (included in 

above total) 453,000,000 

* Total number of copies distributed during year according to circulation 
statistics. 

t Includes newspaper and periodical advertising. 

X Includes sheet music, books of music, and paper patterns. 

Summary. No single measure of unit production for the 
entire industry has been found by either this or any previous 
study. Circulation figures for newspapers and periodicals. 



148 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

numbers of books and pamphlets printed, and value of pro- 
duction for job printing, are the units of measure adopted by 
this Survey. 

In 1929 the entire printing and publishing industry (ex- 
clusive of firms with less than $5,000 income) attained a 
total production value, inclusive of newspaper and periodi- 
cal advertising of $2,600,000,000. Newspapers and periodi- 
cals accounted, in round figures, for $1,480,000,000 of this 
amount, while books and pamphlets came to $190,000,000. 
The output, therefore, of our third and last classification, 
commercial and job printing, is measured by the remainder, 
or $930,000,000. 

Newspapers are generally produced in publisher-owned 
plants. Seventy-five per cent of magazine printing is con- 
tracted out to the commercial printing plants.-^ Ninety-seven 
per cent of book production is contracted to commercial 
houses.^ 

There were, census statistics revealed, 24,360 establish- 
ments in the printing and publishing industry in the year in 
question, with 484,784 persons gainfully employed, of whom 
281,119 were wage earners. 

Except in the case of newspapers, existing capacity has 
been found ample to meet a great increase in demand for 
reading matter of all kinds. Newspapers are at present so 
well distributed that, despite low national purchasing power, 
probably the saturation point has been approached. Potential 
capacity in books, pamphlets, and job printing is virtually 
unlimited; and books and pamphlets have by no means 
reached the saturation point in national distribution. A great 
increase is both desirable and physically possible. 

Felix J. Frazer 

^ S. R. Latshaw, Chairman, Code Committee, Periodical Publishers' Insti- 
tute. 

' Book Manufacturers Institute. 



CHAPTER XII 

TRANSPORTATION 

Without freight and passenger traffic, no functioning of 
our modern economy would be possible. Unrelated and self- 
directing as most industries have been, transportation has 
tended to act as a coordinating agency. Any study of ex- 
isting or potential productive capacity must therefore be 
bound to the study of transportation. 

General. All systems of transportation, except our nat- 
ural waterways, have been developed to serve the needs of 
commerce. They follow the logical routes of trade and travel. 
Raw materials and production centers fix the places of origi- 
nation, and the needs of consumers fix the destination of 
products. Passenger travel is largely parallel and comple- 
mentary to the flow of goods. 

The development of transportation has been largely gov- 
erned by the needs of industry. It is assumed, therefore, 
that the systems of transport as now constituted will largely 
comprise the facilities of the immediate future. 

Agencies listed in this chart make up the major factors of 
transportation. The year of peak demand on freight capac- 
ity was 1929; 1932 was chosen as the year indicating the 
present weights of the respective passenger agencies. But 
1932 is not the year of greatest demand on passenger ca- 
pacity. About sixty-five billion passenger-miles were recorded 
in each of the several years preceding 1920, of which 75% 
was carried on steam railways, 5% on coastwise shipping, 
7% on Great Lakes shipping, and 13% by other agencies. 
This total, however, is not comparable with existing or re- 
cent passenger travel because the weights of the respective 

149 



I50 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 





TRANSPORTATION I 5 I 

agencies have materially changed in the past decade. For in- 
stance, in 1928-9, some sixty-five billion passenger-miles were 
traveled between centers in privately owned automobiles, 
motor busses made about 20% of the aggregate ( 1932) pas- 
senger mileage, while electric inter-urban railways have 
abandoned 30% of their trackage in the last twelve years. 

Any system of transportation has three essential physical 
components: (a) ways (roadway and track, waterways, high- 
ways, and airways); (b) transport equipment; and (c) 
tractive power. To these three might be added personnel, 
perhaps the most important component of all. But since this 
may be said of all industry, it will only be mentioned here in 
passing. In the several systems, these components are found 
in different combinations. 

Air transport, because of its speed, is a unique service 
for passengers and valuable goods of small bulk; but be- 
cause of its low economy it is a very limited one, accounting 
for less than 0.4% of the total 1932 passenger-miles. Water- 
ways are now used only for bulk cargoes of low unit value. 
Motor trucks facilitate deliveries between near-by points, 
having replaced railroads for many short hauls, and now are 
almost the exclusive agency for the transport of perishables 
within a radius of one hundred miles. Excluding air trans- 
port, the remaining agencies are competitive and comple- 
mentary. 

i 

Public Highways, Our public highways carry but 3.5% 
of our public and quasi-public transport tonnage, yet they 
have become so crowded that several states have passed laws 
prohibiting or limiting their use by common carriers. Now, 
if so small a fraction of the total tonnage has aroused such 
action, it seems reasonable to assume that no great increase 
in truck transportation can be accommodated by our present 
highway system. 

A study of the reports of the highway commissions of the 



152 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

forty-eight states indicates that more than forty thousand 
miles of new highways are needed exactly paralleling existing 
routes; and that entirely new routes, embracing one hundred 
and thirty-five thousand miles, are required to meet the im- 
mediate demand for short-haul inter-city traffic. 

Three and one-quarter million motor trucks are in opera- 
tion today, and registration has been near this figure for 
seven years; but there are only six hundred thousand trucks 
of about one and one-half tons capacity. Only two hundred 
thousand are engaged as common carriers. Motor trucks 
should not, however, be considered as components of the 
basic transportation system but as extensions of the mecha- 
nism of production. It should be kept in mind that they 
could not be mobilized in an emergency without paralyzing 
industry and agriculture. 

Only about 20% of the motor busses are engaged in com- 
mon-carrier inter-city service, but they account for 17% of 
the total passenger-miles made by all common carriers in 
1932. School busses and busses in similar services carried 
almost a billion passengers in 1932. Inter-city bus travel has 
been integrated in a remarkable fashion. While this can 
hardly be rated as an important transportation agency, the 
established lines do constitute the nuclei for the development 
of a reasonably important factor in passenger transporta- 
tion. However, the present load-factor is very low, and the 
1932 depreciation rate was about 27% ; so it seems unlikely 
that motor busses will become a formidable factor until 
these deficiencies shall have been corrected. 

In this study, electric inter-urban railways are not con- 
sidered to be an important factor of the national transporta- 
tion system. Thirty per cent of the 1932 electric railways' 
track mileage has since been abandoned. In 1930, only 9,683 
miles — less than 4% of the steam-railroad mileage — of track 
were in service. Only 4% of the total passenger-miles were 
traveled on this media in the same year. 



TRANSPORTATION 153 

Oil pipe lines serve a single industry in highly localized 
areas. The railroads transport a greater portion of petroleum 
products than do the pipe lines, and coastwise vessels trans- 
ported petroleum products equivalent to 50% of the pipe- 
line tonnage in 1932. Existing pipe lines have an annual 
capacity of about eight hundred million barrels. 

Ton-miles carried by oil pipe lines approximate 5% of the 
aggregate work done by all transport factors in 1929 and 
1932. In 1929, natural-gas pipe lines delivered energy equiva- 
lent to eighty million tons of coal. Had this coal been trans- 
ported by railway, it would have required work amounting 
to twenty billion ton-miles and would have required an ad- 
dition of three and one-half per cent to the aggregate of all 
carrier capacity. 

Less than 2% of our traffic moves over inland waterways. 
Seasonal closure of canals and rivers, and other uncertain- 
ties, make it impossible to depend upon inland waterways 
as an important factor of transportation. In 1932, 80% of 
all tonnage on rivers was comprised of four commodities: 
petroleum products, coal and coke, sand and gravel, and 
products of the forests. 

Coastwise shipping originates 11% of all freight tonnage 
and accounts for almost 16% of the total ton-miles. Great 
Lakes carriers transported 7% of the tonnage carried by 
all agencies during that year and approximated 13% of the 
total ton-miles. The tonnage of registered bottoms on the 
Great Lakes on June 30, 1934, was only 65% of that of 
1929. 

Railroads. The three major components of the railway 
transportation system have been mentioned. Let us restate 
them: (a) ways (density capacity of roadway and track) ; 
(b) transport equipment (carrying capacity) ; and (c) trac- 
tive power. 

(a) Ways. The maximum "density capacity" may be de- 



154 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

fined as the greatest number of trains of all types of service 
that can be run over a given division of track In a given time. 
High-speed train service Is a factor only In so far as It must 
be coordinated by the dispatcher with the slower movement 
of freight and short-haul passenger service. Increasing train 
speed win have little effect on the total tonnage capacity, as 
only one day In each fourteen Is spent, by the average freight 
car, In motion. The remaining time Is taken In loading and 
unloading, waiting for load, and other delays. 

The diversity of function of the three components pre- 
cludes the use of past performance as a basis for estimating 
Integrated capacity operation; but past performance of the 
various components, considered singly, may be Interpreted 
as supporting an estimate of capacity. 

(b) Transport Equipment. The work done by class-l 
railroads In 1929 aggregated 489 billion ton-miles. Tonnage 
volumes for the calendar years of 1927 and 1928 were within 
5% of the 1929 value. 

In 1934, rolling stock existing in good order was adequate 
to move about 600 billion ton-miles of freight annually, 
under the present utilization factor. 

(c) Tractive Power. Tractive power available and now 
In good order could handle about 400 billion ton-miles. 
Stored locomotives, if actually serviceable, give a reserve 
power of 50 biUion ton-miles. Unserviceable locomotives, if 
reconditioned, could deliver an additional 175 billion ton- 
miles annually. 

Morale, always high in the railroad personnel, has suf- 
fered during the late depression less than In any other In- 
dustry. Dr. Julius H. Parmalee, Director of the Bureau of 
Railway Economics, says in his review of the calendar 
year of 1933: "Carriers maintained throughout the four- 
year period much the same high level of operating efficiency 
that characterized their performance during earlier 
years." 



TRANSPORTATION I 5 5 

For the reason that i6% of tractive power Is always 
awaiting repairs, we have chosen to estimate annual ca- 
pacity, after full rehabilitation, at 500 billion ton-miles. 
This estimate of capacity is based on the best past perform- 
ance plus full utilization of all advancements in the arts. 
The figure of 500 billion ton-miles for existing freight ca- 
pacity is conservative. 

Carrier Capacity, Freight. Freight-capacity estimates 
of our national transport system might be based on the as- 
sumption that our carrier agencies be integrated. No such 
assumption has been made, estimates of available capacity 
being based on the existing capacity of the various carriers. 
However, if the various systems are considered as Inte- 
grated, estimates of capacity are of Interest. For Instance, 
in 1932, 20% of all inter-city freight originated with trucks, 
while 7% of the total ton-miles of all agencies was carried 
by trucks. Were railroads and trucks to be integrated, utiliz- 
ing the railroads for long freight hauls exclusively, the ton- 
mile capacity of all systems would be Increased by 100 billion 
ton-miles, or 15% of the aggregate demand of 1929. 

Capacity in freight haulage must also be considered from 
the angle of the type of freight hauled. Thus, coastwise ship- 
ping now makes an effective contribution to the transporta- 
tion capacity of only two commodities : Petroleum products 
and coal. Its capacity for these Items is probably about 40% 
greater than the 1929 demand. 

Four-hundred-per-cent increase over the 1929 demand In 
merchandise and manufactured tonnage could be carried by 
our present coastwise vessels. 

The present capacity of the Great Lakes bottoms for all 
types of freight Is estimated at above 75% of the 1929 de- 
mand but no Intelligent estimate can be made of the time 
required to rehabilitate vessels that have not maintained their 
registry. 



156 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

The 1934 capacity of motor trucks (43 billion ton-miles) 
is about 40% greater than the maximum demand which they 
met in 1932, but only 15% of this capacity is available for 
public or quasi-public use. 

The chart at the head of this chapter gives the estimated 
existing ton-mile capacity of the several agencies. 

Carrier Capacity, Passenger. The 1933 passenger- 
miles of steam railroads were only 40% of the 1920 peak. 
The decline in passenger travel on the railroads approxi- 
mated 33 billion passenger-miles during the past 12 years, 
and the increase in private automobile travel was two times 
greater than the loss to the railroads. Railroad passenger 
capacity is now 100% greater than the demand (50 billion 
passenger-miles) at the peak in 1920. Private automobiles 
are not considered as components of a national transporta- 
tion system, but they provide an effective reserve. 

Of the 36 billion passenger-miles made by common car- 
riers in 1932, about 47% was made on railroads, 30% be- 
ing made by commuters. 

Previous to 1920, when the decline in railroad passenger 
travel began, there were in use about 63,000 passenger cars 
of all kinds, including baggage and dining cars. On January 
I, 1934, 56,000 passenger cars were available. Practically 
all of the 7,000 cars discarded were abandoned day coaches 
of obsolete design. During that time, more than 17,000 mod- 
ern steel coaches and other cars had been delivered. It is 
estimated that the total passenger capacity of equipment 
is about 5% greater than in 1920. 

In the years of greatest demand, railroad cars with aver- 
age capacity of 50 passengers, carried only 20 passengers per 
car. The average in 1933 was about 8 passengers per car. 
Since peak loads have been weighted in the averages, it may 
be tentatively assumed that present railroad equipment, 
roadway, and tractive power are ample to meet a demand 



TRANSPORTATION 157 

ioo% greater than the previous peak of travel (1920) and 
five times greater than in 1933. 

The yearly capacity of all domestic water-craft is esti- 
mated at about 24 million passengers on the routes now 
traveled, and for the distance usually traveled. This is ap- 
proximately four times the recorded travel for 1932. 

Carrier Capacity, Other. About 800,000 passengers 
were carried over the Great Lakes, and 900,000 over inland 
waterways. About 2,750,000 were embarked on the Atlantic 
coast and about 2,000,000 on the Pacific. Approximately 
694,300 passengers were carried in foreign travel and 79,590 
foreign excursionists visited our shores. 

In 1932, twenty-five million passengers went on water ex- 
cursion trips and over three hundred million persons used 
the ferry boats at New York and San Francisco. 

Potential Capacity. The present capacity of our rolling 
stock Is 50% greater than the greatest previous demand; 
and the productive capacity of makers of equipment is suf- 
ficient to replace 20% of the existing rolling stock In one 
year. These capacities are so far ahead of any conceivable 
demand that any estimate of potential capacity would be 
mere speculation. 

Tractive power apparently available must be Increased If 
the demand Increases beyond the 1929 tonnage volume.^ 
Sixteen per cent of the total tractive effort has become un- 
serviceable in the Intervening years, and considering that 
many units have been five years "in lead," it seems impossi- 
ble to consider the reserve tractive power as of full value. 
But, if It were made 100% available, the reserve units would 

^The Report of the Coordinator of Transportation, April 24., 1934, esti- 
mates capacity at 43.5% above peak demand of October, 1929, after a sixty- 
day repair period and after withdrawing all units from storage. 



158 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 




TRANSPORTATION 1 59 

not meet the requirements forecast for the immediate future, 
i.e., 122 miles per day per locomotive as against 94 miles in 

1929- 

The locomotive plants now in operation have, in one year, 
produced 3600 units of all types. At this rate, production of 
units of average tractive effort would increase available 
power by 20% annually. Since advancements in the art make 
possible the production of units with much greater efficiency, 
and since less repairs would be required on the new units, 
actual effective power could probably be increased by 25% 
per annum. 

About two billion tons of freight was annually originated 
in the continental United States during the years of greatest 
industrial activity. Foreign commerce and our territorial 
possessions delivered annually an additional quarter of a 
billion tons. The weighted average haul of all classes of 
freight was 192 miles. Thus, the production of work of all 
factors was 731 billion ton miles. 

No estimate of the potential capacity of an integrated 
system, based only on the knowledge developed by the sev- 
eral bureaus of the government, can be conclusive. 

But we have assumed that proper integration would some- 
what reduce cross-haul and that scheduled "through transit" 
would reduce delays In unloading and waiting for load, thus 
releasing equipment for additional service. 

On the assumption that the points of origination and des- 
tination are unchanged, capacity of existing agencies, inte- 
grated and coordinated, Is estimated as 100% greater than 
previous peak demand for practically all commodities except 
bituminous coal,-^ and wheat and corn destined for export. 

Douglas L. Cullison 

^ Probably about a 40% increased demand could be met in the Appala- 
chian fields. 



CHAPTER XIII 

HEALTH 

The problem of mental and physical health enters into 
every aspect of Individual and social life. Life extension, hap- 
pier social adjustment, epidemic prevention, pain relief, 
home, shop and school sanitation — all come within the do- 
main of medical care, the ultimate aim of it being health. 

The health of a community depends on the interplay of 
many factors, such as biological research, colloidal studies, 
educational and recreational programs, religious and politi- 
cal doctrines, national diet. Industrial sanitation and safety, 
mores, clothing and housing provisions, etc. 

Under the existing economic conditions, there is a definite 
relation between Income and death rate, between income and 
the use of medical aid. Sociologists and statesmen, in the 
broader sense, therefore, are directly concerned with the 
problem. 

Death Rate. The average annual death rate for all ages 
of the population of the United States is 11.4 per thousand. 
However, the mortality rate of the different economic groups 
varies considerably, the general rule being the smaller the 
income, the higher the death rate. Thus, death rate dis- 
tributed by occupations appears In Table L 

Agricultural workers, having some imputed income in 
kind, form a group apart, and have a low annual death 
rate of 623.2 per 100,000. 

Medical Care. Similarly, the groups with lower Income 
can pay for less medical aid for health maintenance. Thus, 
the families in the lower-income group ($1200 a year and 

160 



HEALTH l6l 

Table I 
Death Rates — 1930* 
(per 100,000 gainfully employed males) 

Group 

Unskilled workers 

Semi-skilled workers 

Skilled workers 

Managers and officials 

Clerks and office workers 

Professional men 



All Causes 


(Standardized) 


1.447-7 


1,009 


,3 


828 


9 


792 


5 


775 


2 


670 


5 



* Source: S. Whitney, "Death Rates by Occupations," National Tuberculosis 
Association, 1934. 

less) are able to pay for only one-sixth of the nursing, one- 
fourth of the eye care, one-third of the dental care, and two- 
thirds of surgical and hospital care that families in the 
higher-income brackets can afford. While the families in the 
upper income brackets spent $2,765,000,000 on their health, 
the great majority of families spent but $735,000,000, ob- 
viously a sum which did not provide for even the essential 
health requirements. 

Thus, for a typical 12 months, 8,639 white families of 
various incomes incurred the following medical expenses: 

Table II 

Cost of Medical Care* 

(8,639 white families) 

Average 
Family Income Total Charges 

Under $1200 ^49.17 

^i 200-^ 2000 66 . 8 1 

2000- 3000 94 ■ 84 

3000- 5000 137-92 

5000-10,000 249.35 

Over 10,000 503- 19 

* Source: Reports of the Committee on Cost of Medical Care. 

As a result, the existing medical plant and personnel are 
not fully utihzed at present because of the limitations of 
income, while the estimated need for medical services consid- 
erably exceeds the available means. 

The number of sick people varies considerably, with the 



l62 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

peak occurring during the winter. This condition throws an 
extra load on hospitals at one time and leaves unoccupied 
beds at another; hence, the average idle-bed capacity of 
21.2% (in 1933) is misleading. The total confinement in 
hospitals varies with the nature of illness. 

Table III 

Confinement in Hospitals, 1933, various illnesses 

Average Duration 
of Illness in Days 
Class of Hospital per Patient 

Nervous and mental 1014.7 

Tuberculosis 264 . i 

Maternity 21.5 

General 13.9 

All hospitals combined 41 -9 

The confinement in bed at home is unequally distributed 
among different age groups, as is indicated in Table IV. 

Table IV 

Days at Home in Bed 

Age Confinement 

1 5-20 Less than 2 days 

35-55 3-5 days 

55-70 3 . 5 to 9 days 

The total time during which all forms of sickness disable 
persons of all ages is 8.5 days per year, causing a propor- 
tionate loss of productive hours. 

Obviously, the existing demand for medical care is limited 
by what the sick can pay and therefore the true demand 
must be much larger. However, the difference between the 
lowest ($50) and highest ($500) family expenditure for 
medical care paid by poorest and richest is not an indication 
that the true demand is ten times as great as at present. 
The true demand is estimated at about forty per cent above 
the present average level. Furthermore, the present economic 
limitations of income create a demand for "cheap" substi- 
tutes for medical care, such as patent medicines, home reme- 
dies, and a resorting to quacks, charlatans, untrained 
midwives, cultists, etc. 



HEALTH 163 

Nature of Illness. Among the illnesses possessing the 
highest mortality rates (double and triple the International 
death rate) are several, as shown In Table V, which are 
still on the increase in the U. S. A. 

Table V 
Mortality Rates — Various Diseases 

Deaths per 
Disease 100,000 

Heart disease 266 . 4 

Cancer ii7-3 

Diabetes 24. i 

More serious still, from the social point of view. Is the 
effect of economic strain resulting, in the period 1880-193 1, 
In the Increase in the number of Inmates (from 63.7 to 236.1^ 
per 100,000 population) of the Institutions for the so-called 
"Insane." A further insight Into the state of national mental 
health may be comprehended from the fact that out of every 
ten persons now applying for medical care, four are suffer- 
ing from some form of "psychosis."^ 

So far as frequency of minor Impairments Is concerned, 
the leading causes requiring attention are shown In Table VI. 

Table VI 

Nature of Minor Impairments 

Rate per 
Impairment looo cases 

Eye cases 85.9 

Tonsils 43 • o 

Constipation 33-7 

Heart 23 . 5 

Infected gums 17.9 

Table VII 
Medical Attention Without Illness 
Case Percentage 

Dental 61 . i 

Health examinations 16.0 

Immunizations 13. i 

Eye care 9.8 



Total 1 GO . o 



^Bulletin of Public Health, U. S. Treasury Department. 
^American Psychiatric Association. 



164 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table VII shows the distribution of medical attention un- 
accompanied by illness. 

Preventive medicine receives far from adequate atten- 
tion, representing but 1.4% of the total national medical bill. 

Existing Facilities. The total medical bill for 1929, 
amounting to about $3,282,000,000, was distributed as 
shown in Table VIII. 

Table VIII 

Breakdown of Medical Costs 

Services and fees |i ,930,000,000 

Hospitals 656,000,000 

Medicines and drugs 696,000,000 

Goods and appliances 60,000,000 



Gross Total ^3,342,000,000 

Less duplications 60,000,000 

Net total ^3,282,000,000 

This represents a per capita medical cost of about $26 in 
1929, which was provided from the various sources listed 
below, and was expended for the purposes shown in Table 
IX. 

Table IX 

Sources and Disposition of 1929 Medical Dollar 

Source DISPOSITIO^f 

Received from Per Cent Spent for Per Cent 

Patients 79 Illness 78 . 5 

Government 14 Dental care 17-4 

Philanthropy 5 Eye care 2.7 

Industry 2 Prevention 1.4 



Total 100 Total 100. o 

In 1932, the admission to all hospitals was 7,228,151 pa- 
tients, which overtaxed the facilities of the hospitals for 
nervous and mental ailments and for tuberculosis and, at 
times, the facilities of other hospitals. The total number 
of beds in all hospitals was 1,014,354, which were served 
by 113,730 members of the staff who took care of an aver- 
age of 808,445 patients per day. However, in different types 



HEALTH 165 

Table X 
Confinement to Hospitals of Various Types 
Type Turnover 

General 26.2 

Maternity 16.90 

Tuberculosis i . 39 

Nervous and mental 0.36* 

Average, all cases, all hospitals 8.6 

* Between 1927 and 1933, the population of hospitals for nervous and mental 
diseases increased 35.8%. 

of hospitals the load factor and the "turnover" of patients 
are dissimilar. 

Since the depression began, the duration of confinement 
has increased, probably because, among other reasons, only 
the more severe cases seek hospitalization. Between 1927 
and 1933, the demand for medical care on the part of out- 
patients increased by 41 % and the number of visits increased 
by 137%, reaching a total of 32,822,077 out-patients in 

1933- 

Even so, the services of the medical personnel are not fully 
utilized. Only one out of seven physicians and one out of 
eleven dentists are connected with institutions, and the re- 
maining doctors and dentists cannot sell their full time to 
the population. 

"The extent of unemployment among physicians Is so 
large that even in 1929, the services which they rendered 
could have been supplied by httle more than 50% of those in 
active practice if each of these had had a reasonably com- 
plete quota of patients to provide full utilization of working 
time."i 

Nurses, similarly, are employed on the average less than 
half of the time and could render more than double the serv- 
ice which the population was able to purchase in 1933. In 
that year, dentists, together with their helpers, could have 
rendered 40% more service than the people of the United 
States could have bought. 

' I. S. Falk, Milbank Memorial Fund. 



1 66 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Estimated Requirements. The Committee on the Cost 
of Medical Care has estimated the shortage among the mem- 
bers of the medical profession. Comparing its estimate with 
the available spare time (above mentioned) we get the data 
exhibited in Table XL 

Table XI 

Shortage and Idle Time of Medical Personnel 

Idle Time 
Translated into 
Estimated Equivalent 

Class Shortage Personnel 

Physicians 29,848 48,000 

Dentists 53 > 081 5,3 1 000 

Nurses (graduate) 133,000 134,000 

In other words, if the idle time of the medical personnel 
had been made use of, the unsatisfied real need for medical 
care could be satisfied with the existing personnel. The same 
Committee also determined the shortage in hospital facili- 
ties as compared with the 956,350 beds available in 1930. 

Table XII 

Bed Shortage in Various Classes of Hospitals 

Shortage 
Class (Beds) 

General 180,120 

Mental 186,785 

■Tuberculosis 98 , 745 

Other requirements are inadequately provided for, as: 
Preventive medicine, research, eyeglasses and the like, medi- 
cal goods and appliances, and especially mental hygiene and 
psychiatric education — the latter affecting not only the gen- 
eral medical practitioner but, decidedly, the educator (in- 
cluding radio, church, cinema, and the press). 

Summary. The appended Table XIII indicates the possi- 
bility of materially improving the medical care of our popu- 
lation. It indicates also the need of providing additional 
hospital facilities. The total medical bill of the country 
would become about $5,136,000,000 a year if the health 



HEALTH 167 

needs were satisfied. The average annual per-capita charge 
would then amount to about $42.00, a sum which would 
supply not only an adequate income for the physicians, den- 
tists, and nurses (now only partly employed), but would 
also extend work in research, preventive medicine, and men- 
tal hygiene. This would be likely to reduce progressively the 
curative expenses of the population. 

In fact, competent estimates have been made showing that 
with the elimination of quacks, with the reduced use of ill- 
advised "patent" drugs and self-prescribed remedies (made 
unnecessary when ample competent medical advice is finan- 
cially available), and with the preventive effect of periodic 
health examinations, the annual cost of adequate care would 
in all likelihood eventually be even below the present figure 
of $26 per capita shown in Table XIII. 

This is postulated on the basis of ample care and preven- 
tion made available through socialized medicine, i.e., without 
financial restrictions on the translation of needs into services. 

Walter N. Polakov 



i68 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 



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CHAPTER XIV 

EDUCATION 

In colonial days, "schooling" was largely private, being 
conducted by tutors hired by wealthy families or groups of 
families; or else it was a religious enterprise, carried on in 
order to make sure that children received the proper doc- 
trine. In 1785, Congress set aside part of each township in 
the Ohio territory for the support of education, and certain 
state constitutions made similar provisions. These were only 
partially carried out, but about the middle of the nineteenth 
century public education began to be accepted as a major 
responsibility of the community. 

Present Status. In 1930 the United States Office of 
Education estimated a total of 29,909,000 pupils enrolled in 
educational institutions, of whom some 28,388,000 were in 
elementary and secondary schools. Over a million teachers 
were employed, and over half a million more were in train- 
ing. Seven out of every ten Americans between five and 
twenty years of age, and ninety-five per cent of those between 
the ages of seven and thirteen years were in school. Some 
250,000 school buildings were in use, valued at six billion 
dollars. In 1930, the total expenditure for public and private 
education of all kinds in the United States was $3,235,- 
000,000. Of this sum, $2,823,000,000 was spent for public 
education. 

Table I shows the increase in pupil enrollment, number 
of teachers, teachers' salaries, and total expenditures for 
public education. 

The most striking advance has been made in high school 
enrollment. In 1880, this was only 1 10,000; by 1929, it had 

170 



EDUCATION 171 

Table I 
Growth in Attendance, Teachers, Expenditures* 

Pupils No. of Total 

Year Enrolled Teachers Salaries Expenditures 

1880 9,868,000 287,000 ^55,943,000 ^78, 094, 687 

1900 12,723,000 364,000 91,836,000 140,507,000 

1905 16,468,000 460,000 177,462,000 291,617,000 

1910 17,814,000 523,000 253,915,000 426,250,000 

1915 19,693,000 604,000 345,006,000 605,461,000 

1920 21,578,000 679,000 613,405,000 1,036,151,000 

1925 24,650,000 780,000 1,006,409,000 1,946,097,000 

1930 25,678,000 854,000 1,250,427,000 2,316,790,000 

* Source: United States Office of Education, Department of the Interior. 

grown to 4,741,000. The average period of education for 
the whole country is seven years, the figure varying from 
four years in Alabama to nine years in Massachusetts. 

Curricula have been enriched during each decade. Natural 
science, manual training, art, music, special science, indus- 
trial arts, dramatics, business courses, agriculture, household 
arts, health, camping, and an untold variety of other courses, 
have been added in recent years. Although there exists a 
tendency to designate some of these as "fads and frills," 
actually the movement has been steadily in the direction of a 
closer contact between life in the school and the function of 
youth in community life. 

Adult Education. Education, once thought of as con- 
fined to childhood and largely preparatory in its nature, is 
now being recognized as a way of enriching all life, the adult 
years as well as those of youth. 

In 1920, only about 345,000 persons over 21 were in 
school. Ten years later, we find nearly a three hundred per 
cent increase; more than 1,304,000 adults attending school. 
About 262,000 of these were in classes for illiterates and for 
foreign born adults. 

Private business schools numbered 65 1 in 1929, with 4,000 
instructors and 180,000 pupils.^ 

^Report No. 795. 



172 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

By Congressional provision, agricultural experiment sta- 
tions have been established in each state, and county agents 
have carried on institutes, conferences, individual counseling, 
and have helped in other ways. This program now reaches 
over a million adults. Emergency relief educational activities 
in cities are now serving thousands of workers and unem- 
ployed adults. 

Training for the Handicapped. Has been established 
in special institutions. During 1926-7 about 18,000 pupils 
were enrolled in schools for the deaf. The special schools 
for the feeble-minded and subnormal had an enrollment of 
104,000. Industrial schools for delinquents enrolled 84,000. 
In addition, special classes for thousands of handicapped 
children are established as part of the public school system. 

Effect of Economic Crisis. Everything indicated that 
there would be smaller budgets in 1934-5 than there were in 
any year for the past five. Nevertheless, the number of pupils 
has continued to increase, largely in the secondary schools, 
while both the number of teachers and their salaries have 
fallen. In the secondary schools, we found an increase of 
twenty-five per cent in pupils, and a decrease of twenty-five 
per cent in teachers' pay.^ 

One teacher in three was working for less than $750 a 
year. According to Leaflet No. 44, 25,000 teachers have 
been dropped, and 200,000 certified teachers are unemployed. 

The exact amount of the shortening of the school terms 
is not easy to determine. In city schools, between 1929-30 
and 1 93 1-2, there was an average decrease of three days in 
the school term. 

Table II shows the services that have been reduced or 
eliminated. 

* See Leaflet No. 44 (1933) and Circular No. 124 (1933), United States 
Office of Education, Department of the Interior. 



EDUCATION 173 

Table II 

Schools in Operation 

From September 1930 to June 1933* 

Per Cent Per Cent 

of Cities of Cities 

Service Reducing Eliminating 

Americanization 1 1 j 23 

Continuation schools 1 1 f 21 

Classes for physically handicapped 3 9 

Classes for mentally handicapped Vt 8 

Kindergartens 8t 12 

Night school, adult classes iff 28 

Summer school I3t 28 

Post-graduate high school 4 3 

Playgrounds and recreation lyt 4 

Free textbooks iSf i 

Other books 32! I 

Supplies 41 1 o 

Transportation of pupils iif 2 

Health service i4t 3 

Length of school term 38! o 

* Source: "A Study of Reduction of Educational Service in 667 Cities," Circular 
No. 129 (Oct. 1933), United States Office of Education. 

t A further reduction was estimated for 1933-4. 

The best picture of the disaster in education is shown by 
the report (March 1933) of the Joint Commission on the 
Emergency in Education of the National Education Asso- 
ciation. The commission commented on the fact that (a) 
pubHc school enrollment was nearly a million larger than in 
1930, (b) 15,000 teachers had been dropped, (c) the expen- 
diture per child per school day had fallen from sixty-three 
cents to forty-nine cents, and that (d) building expenditures 
amounting to $400,000,000 in 1930 had dropped to $154,- 
000,000 in 1933. Of the 450,000 rural teachers of the coun- 
try, half received less than $750, and 90,000 received less 
than $450 per year. A report of the National Educational 
Association showed schools closed for 290,000 children as 
of April I, 1933. 

In April 1934, 20,300 schools were closed, cutting off the 
educational opportunities of 1,025,000 children. In 193 1-2 
only eighteen per cent of the cities of the country reported 
night schools. Only nine per cent of the cities reporting to the 
Office of Education carried on summer-school work. 



174 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Requirements of Elementary Education. To serve 
the elementary and secondary public-school enrollment of 
today at least as well as pre-depresslon pupils were served 
would require: (a) 901,000 teachers; (b) $2,340,000,000 
for current expenses. This, however, only begins to satisfy 
the needs. To meet the generally accepted standard for 
school nurses, we would have to double the present 6000 
nurses, even if no pupils were added. 

To meet the standard for school clerks, the present force 
of 16,800 should be increased to 67,000. 

To meet the standard for janitor service, the present 
84,000 should be Increased to 104,000. 

Standard attendance-officer service calls for raising the 
existing 3360 to about 9000. 

The greatest shortage Is in psychological counselors and 
visiting teachers. A White House Conference report recom- 
mended that one of each be assigned to every 500 pupils. The 
present school population would need 50,000 of each. 

All of the above figures have been based upon the present 
school population and the present type of educational serv- 
ice. However, In estimating requirements, we should ac- 
cept the standards set by educators as the goal which they 
believe would best serve the educational welfare of the 
country. 

If all of the population from the ages of three to eighteen 
were in some kind of school, the registration for all public 
schools below college would then be forty million Instead of 
the present twenty-six million. According to our studies, such 
a school system would call for the staffing indicated in Table 
III. 

Suppose, then, that all the population of school age spent 
at least part of the time In school, some teaching would un- 
doubtedly have to be carried on, not in existing school build- 
ings, but In camps, of which very few are now operated by 
public school systems. Much would be done in cooperation 



EDUCATION 175 

with the work of agriculture, industry, commerce and the 
professions. 

Requirements in Nurseries and Kindergartens. 
From the point of view of mental hygiene and positive health, 

Table III 

Personnel Requirements* 

On Basis of Actual Present 
On Basis of Present Enrollment Fulfillment 

40 million (26.3 million (26.3 million 

Classification Pupils** pupils) pupils) § 
Teachers, elementary- and high- 

schoolj 2,095,ooot i,757,ooot 840,ooo§l| 

Principals 200,000 56,000 56,000 

School nurses 30,000 12,000 6,000 

Clerks 130,000 67,000 16,800 

Janitor-engineers 200,000 104,000 84,000 

Attendance officers 15,000 9,000 3.960 

Supervisors 33,000 20,000 33,000 

Superintendents and other ad- 
ministrative officers 33,000 33,000 33,000 

Psychological counsellors and 

visiting teachers 160,000 100,000 400lf 

Total engaged 2,896,000 2,158,000 1,073,160 

* Source: Report No. 795. 

t Computed on basis of one teacher to every 15 pupils. 

t Does not include kindergartens or nursery schools. 

§ Res. Bulletin National Education Association, Sept. 1933. 

H Estimate of writer, based on applications and placements of the Bureau of 
Educational Service of Teachers College, Columbia University, New York City. 
U. S. Bureau of Education reported 230 visiting teachers in 1930. 

II 31.4 pupils to every teacher. 

** Includes elementary and high-school but not nursery and kindergarten pupils 
which would add about 9 million more pupils. 

the quality and the educational standard of the teachers in 
the pre-school grades should be of the highest. They should 
possess a thorough familiarity with the problem of mental 
hygiene. They would have to take care of 4,720,000 pupils 
in nursery schools. This would mean erecting or remodeling 
some 900,000 buildings, each capable of caring for not more 
than fifty to sixty pupils. Nursery schools must be small 
neighborhood affairs. 



176 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Another 4,870,000^ pupils (ages four and six) will come 
into kindergartens. Existing kindergarten facilities are more 
nearly adequate in quality, but not in quantity. Adequate 
personality development requires that not more than fifteen 
pupils should be assigned to one teacher. Therefore, 640,000 
teachers will be required, a figure very close to the number 
employed in all elementary schools in 1930. 

The 19,723,000^ elementary school pupils between six 
and thirteen years of age, inclusive, is that section of the 
school population for which at present the most adequate 
provision is made. While there are many unfit buildings still 
in use, the seating capacity is adequate to care for this group. 

However, the teaching staff is not adequate. The progres- 
sive private schools which do not have to consider questions 
of expense favor groups of about twelve to fifteen pupils 
per teacher. If we use an average of fifteen pupils per teacher, 
1,315,000 teachers would be needed. Undoubtedly, it will 
be diflicult to supply this number in the near future. 

Secondary Schools. The secondary-school population, 
ages fourteen to eighteen, has been poorly served. High 
schools have been notoriously slow to meet the life needs of 
adolescents. Less than half of the 11,700,000^ children are 
enrolled in secondary schools. Class size for some activities 
can be large, but this tends to be offset by a demand for spe- 
cialization in certain fields. To cover the many fields of the 
modern curriculum, a high school of five hundred students 
can hardly do good work with less than thirty-five teachers. 
This is our familiar ratio of i to 15, and shows a demand 
for 780,000 secondary-school teachers, or about four times 
the present number. 

Using the standards mentioned before, it is possible to 
calculate the non-teaching personnel required to care for 

* United States Bureau of the Census, 1930. 
^ United States Bureau of the Census, 1930. 
' United States Bureau of the Census, 1930, 



EDUCATION 177 

the contemplated population of about forty million children 

and nearly three million teachers. This is shown in Table IV. 

We have thus far ignored the educational requirements of 

those over eighteen years of age. The 971,000 students now 

Table IV 

Non-teaching Personnel 

Principals aoo.ooo 

School nurses 30,000 

Clerks 130,000 

Janitor-engineers 200,000 

Attendance officers 15,000 

Supervisors 33, 000 

School superintendents 33,000 

Psychological counselors and visiting teachers. 160,000 

Total 801,000 

in our colleges and universities are only about ten per cent 
of the total population in the age group nineteen to twenty- 
two, inclusive. Probably the proportion who would profit 
by a college or university education is not larger than this, 
although the ablest students are not now very well selected 
for advanced study. Economic considerations play a large 
role.^ It is estimated that the average freshman must have 
a minimum of $630 to meet expenses. However, if pupils 
were selected for capacity and interest, our present institu- 
tions of higher education, with some 25,000 or 30,000 pro- 
fessors, would probably be adequate. 

Engineering Education. There is a well substantiated 
opinion among industrial executives and engineering educa- 
tors that "four years from now there will not be enough 
engineering graduates to meet even the technical demands of 
the profession, to say nothing of all the other opportunities 
for constructive leadership that lie ahead. "^ 

General R. I. Rees, of the American Telephone & Tele- 
graph Company, showed that the number of engineering 

^ Greenleaf Bulletin, United States Office of Education, 1934. 

^Harvey Davis, Stevens Institute of Technology, speaking in May 1934. 



178 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

graduates is decidedly below normal for the years 1935, 
1936, and 1937, and that by 1937 these schools will be gradu- 
ating about two-thirds of the men needed in the technical 
professions. J. A. Farrell, Chairman of the United States 
Steel Corporation, states that American industry will soon 
find itself facing a very disastrous shortage of technically 
trained men. 

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers finds the 
same situation and the Society for the Promotion of Engi- 
neering Education has data indicating the inadequacy of 
present preparation. 

Apprenticeship. This sort of training in industry In- 
cludes the following: (a) trade apprenticeship, (b) execu- 
tive and foreman training, (c) job training, (d) sales 
training, (e) servicing training, and (f) apprenticeship for 
college graduates. 

Apprenticeship courses for college graduates dropped, 
from 1929 to 1932, from the index of 150 to 50. Job Train- 
ing rose during this period from 1 10 to 122, but the stoppage 
of European immigration of highly skilled mechanics makes 
It apparent that American industry will soon have to face the 
problem of inadequate leadership. 

Requirements for Adult Education. What shall we 
consider an adequate educational provision for the remain- 
ing 8,000,000 young people who group with the 62,000,000 
adults between twenty-five and sixty-five years of age? 

This is the most speculative problem we have confronted. 
Undoubtedly, when economic conditions permit, there will 
be people in each community able to serve as leaders of forum 
and discussion groups, and some who can act as counselors in 
matters of home management, agriculture, vocational read- 
justment, and the like. Also, physicians, psychiatrists, and 
clinical psychologists may serve to educate adult constitu- 



EDUCATION 179 

encies. Libraries, books, magazines, newspapers, the movies, 
theaters, the radio — these are all agencies of adult educa- 
tion, as are the 1400 museums of the United States. 

But let us consider adult education here in the narrower 
sense of persons professionally concerned with helping adults 
through lecture courses, forums, study classes, etc. If we as- 
sume that two such workers can serve a community of one 
thousand adults satisfactorily, we will then need an adult- 
education personnel of 140,000 workers. 

Other Requirements. The increased number of per- 
sons served through education, and the increase in personnel 
from less than a million to about 3,700,000 will call for a 
corresponding increase in expenditures for supplies. Salaries 
of instructors (seventy-two per cent of total expenditures) 
make up the bulk of all educational budgets. It should be 
possible to insist that no teacher receive less than the aver- 
age employed worker. Able men and women must be drawn 
into the work of expanding the vision of the citizen of to- 
morrow! 

Except for a few hours each day, the school plant is not 
being utilized at maximum capacity. Recent years have 
shown, in some city schools, a great increase in the number 
of activities carried on during late afternoons and evenings, 
but on the average, the buildings are in use only about six 
hours a day, five days a week, '2>^ weeks in the year. The 
average child is in school only 942 hours a year, which, if we 
allow ten hours a day for sleep, is only eighteen per cent of 
his waking time. The development of summer and vacation 
schools has progressed very slowly, less than ten per cent of 
cities attempting any such program. The development of a 
supplementary "camp" program is likely to be one important 
development. We may expect that only part of the city school 
population will use the buildings at any one time, the rest 
being on excursions or in camp. 



t8o report of the n. s. p. p. c. 

Table V 
Cost of Education 

Requirements 

Private Education 1929 Cost (1929 Dollars) 

Kindergarten and nurseries. . . . $ 189,750,000' 

Higher schools 78,660,000' 

Institutions for the deaf 250,000' 

Institutions for feeble-minded. . 1,490,000' 

Correspondence schools 30, 150,000^ 

Business and vocational 44,775,000^ $ 420,000,000'' 

Adult educational societies 2,940,000* 

Adult education 2,678,000' 

Chautauquas, etc 5,617,000'" 10,712,00020 

Total ^356,310,000 ^430,712,000 

Less: Public support 12,363,000 

Net expenditures $343,947,000 

Supplies 425,614,000" 1,700,000,000" 

Colleges, universities, dormito- 
ries, fees, etc 5II,I94,ooo^ '2 2,566,900,000'*,^ 

Textbooks and periodicals 179,069,000" 646,262,000^ 

Total Private Education... $1,459,824,000 $5,373,874,000 

Public Education 2,251,000,0002 9,489,500,000'*,'*,'*,'^ 

Total Education $3,710,824,000 $14,863,374,000 

Less public education cost. . . 2,251 ,000, ooo* 

Budgeted requirement for ed- 
ucation $12,612,374,000 

' U. S. Department of Interior, Office of Education, Biennial Survey of Educa- 
tion. Figures include income from tuition only. 

2 Teachers College, Columbia University, Prof. G. Watson. Cost of existing 
public education is already included in Col. 6 total, although it does not appear 
as such. Most of it comes out of real-estate taxes and therefore appears as "rent" 
in the column. 

'Includes private normal schools ($5,200,000), teachers' colleges ($1,460,000), 
and academies and high schools ($72,000,000). Office of Education Biennial Survey 
of Education. 

* Income from tuition. Department of Interior, Office of Education. 

* Estimated from National Education Association. 

^ U. S. Department of Interior, Office of Education, Biennial Report. 

* Estimated by R. Doane on basis of membership dues. 
' National Education Association. 

'" Internal Lyceum and Chautauqua Assn., Chicago. 

" "Marketing Our Educational Supplies," by R. Doane. Geyer's Stationer, 
Vol. 86, No. 2. 

'2 Estimated on basis of $200 per year per student. 

"N.S.P.P.C. See "Printing and Publishing." Wholesale prices marked up 20% 
in $1000. 



EDUCATION I 8 I 

It is estimated that camp properties covering five million 
acres could profitably be utilized in this program. If there 
should be no increase in the working hours of the personnel, 
the development of an all-day, all-week, and all-year-round 
program would call for an increase of approximately eighty 
per cent in the personnel estimate given above, and a similar 
increase in the expenditures. 

The total present cost of education as well as the require- 
ments covered in the National Survey of Potential Product 
Capacity budget are shown in Table V. 

GooDvi^iN Watson 

" Elementary-school teachers (according to G. Watson) 
required, 1,315,000 @ ^2,500 per year $ 3,287,500,000 

'^ Secondary-school teachers required (according to G. W.), 
780,000 @ $3,000 per year 2,340,000,000 

1^ Non-teaching school personnel, 801,000 @ $2,000 per year i ,602,000,000 

^^ Operating expense, elementary and secondary schools on 
basis of double the expenses of 1929 ($630,000,000) 1,260,000,000 

^^A Additional supplies 1 ,000,000,000 

^^ College and university professors, 30,000 @ $5,000 per year 150,000,000 

1^ Adult-education teachers, 140,000® $3,000 per year. . . . 420,000,000 

^^ Adult-education expenses quadrupled (2,678,000x4). . . . 10,712,000 

^^ Supplies (according to G. W.), 4 times the present 1929 
($425,000,000) 1,700,000,000 

''^Dormitories, fees, etc., 971,000 students x 4- 3,884,000 
@ 630 per student 2,446,900,000 

-' Books (text) and periodicals (at wholesale prices — 20% 
markup) quadrupled, $134,638,000 646,262,000 

Total $14,863,374,000 



CHAPTER XV 

RECREATION 

Foreword. To estimate the cost of recreation in any speci- 
fic year is difficult since the border between recreational and 
other activities tends to be obscure. 

To estimate American capacity to provide recreation and 
to formulate a budget for recreational pursuits depends 
largely upon judgment, and only partially upon measure- 
ments or recorded observations. For one thing, the fact that 
ten million men and their families, who are now on indefinite 
leave without pay, would, if the N.S.P.P.C. budget of pro- 
duction were adopted, be replaced by ten million families 
entitled to definite vacations and enjoying adequate spend- 
ing power, makes any conclusions in regard to prospective 
recreational activities open to debate. Undoubtedly habit or 
custom would be subject to alteration if our production were 
released. The resulting economic security and material plenty 
would transform more than the external appearance of 
life. 

Consequently in the following notes we have broken with 
the procedure followed elsewhere and instead of concentrat- 
ing on the presentation of statistical facts, we have weighed 
briefly certain humanistic considerations perhaps somewhat 
irrelevant to a factual survey. 

Recreation, like other phases of life, has been radically 
affected by the Industrial Revolution. On the one hand, the 
technology developed by this revolution has enormously ex- 
panded the possible audience for most aesthetic and emo- 
tional appeals; on the other hand, the standards of the mar- 
ket place, which the revolution has made prevail, have 

182 



RECREATION 1 83 

changed the spring or driving force, the character and the 
purpose of artistic and recreational expression. 

The introduction of printing from type in the 1 5th century 
permitted the mass production of reading matter and the 
democratization of literacy. Photography in the 19th cen- 
tury revolutionized pictorial delineation. Finally, the recent 
inventions of the phonograph, the cinema, and the radio have 
brought music and the theater to the whole population and 
particularly into private homes. 

The results of these technological innovations are two- 
fold: (a) people have acquired an awareness of the world 
utterly inconceivable in previous epochs; (b) art and recrea- 
tion have been cheapened, diluted, or at least appreciably 
affected, by commercialization. Formerly, aesthetic and dec- 
orative expressions — those of church, aristocracy, and peas- 
antry — were consciously directed toward perfection always, 
of course, within the limits of the contemporary ideologies. 
Today, such expressions are largely governed by the factor 
of vendibility. This is either disguised, as is all but a small 
percentage of so-called art, or it is frank and unashamed, like 
advertising, the popular theater, and story-telling. This 
change in direction has probably altered the mores of mod- 
ern peoples as drastically as the more obvious industrial 
transformations. 

In the economic and aesthetic fields the results of the In- 
dustrial Revolution are strikingly analogous. 

Technology, as our survey of the American economy 
shows, could abolish poverty and economic insecurity. It has 
not abolished the first and it has intensified the second. Tech- 
nology could give every individual in the nation the same 
opportunity for aesthetic, emotional, and intellectual de- 
velopment which formerly only the more fortunate members 
of society enjoyed. Instead, the artistic appreciation of the 
favored few has been perverted and the play of the multi- 
tudes cheapened. 



184 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

In both the economic and aesthetic fields, the first impact 
of the Industrial Revolution has tended to demoralize so- 
ciety. Although one man can produce today four times as 
much as his grandfather, the people of this country have been 
living little better during the past three years than they lived 
in 1890.^ 

Although some ninety per cent of our people today read 
and write adequately and although the entire population, 
through the cinema and the radio, are in touch with reflec- 
tions, at least, of the great aesthetic expressions of all time, 
the general cultural level does not seem to have been raised. 
On the contrary, a fairly credible case can be argued for the 
cultural values of the older isolated rural village as against 
those of the contemporary urban slum. 

The values which evoked these reflections are qualitative. 
They cannot be measured and, moreover, lie outside the 
scope of this Survey. However, recreation can be measured 
in time and dollars. Adequate records have been kept of the 
latter. 

The Cinema. In 1929, according to the Motion Picture 
Almanac, about 2 billion dollars were spent by the American 
people in the cinema. This is much the largest item in the 
recreational field if automobile touring, which is covered 
herein under "Transportation," be excluded. In 1930, the 
maximum year, 5,200 million people paid admissions to 
cinema theaters, an average of 42 performances a year per 
person, including even babies, invalids, cripples, etc. Since 
the seating capacity of the existing theaters is 13 billion an- 
nually (at 3 performances daily) no physical limitation pre- 
vents the American people from going to the cinema twice a 
week. Furthermore, the 1929 personnel, numbering 350,000 
and receiving $235,000,000 for their services, and the pro- 
duction equipment (cameras, studios, films, etc.) are ample to 

* See Table IV, Appendix. 



RECREATION 1 85 

provide new pictures weekly for the theaters. Consequently, 
if physical factors were the only limitation on photoplay 
attendance, the cinema would be freely available to the 
American people as often as desired.^ 

If this fact of plenty should be accepted, and If attendance 
were made independent of the individual's ability to pay, the 
nature of the enterprise would be radically altered. Produc- 
ers would no longer have to depend entirely for their con- 
tinuance on mass appeal, which will of necessity, for 
some time to come, cater to an undeveloped grade of Intel- 
ligence. Instead, their success would probably depend In 
large part on prestige and on the approval of Informed 
opinion. 

Such a shift of emphasis would doubtless tend to intro- 
duce a greater quota of intelligence into the content of the 
performances. If the development of the intellectual facul- 
ties of the population Is desirable, it would seem that the 
releasing of the whole or a part of the photoplay business 
from the necessity of making profits should further the race's 
development. The diversion of a fraction of the mental en- 
ergy exerted in producing pictures to searching for more 
profound values need not cause a shortage of films devoted 
solely to relaxation or amusement. Capacity is ample for sat- 
isfying these various needs and for assisting as well In the 
field of education. The United States has many audiences 
on different levels of intelligence. The present system starves 
all but the largest, which is surfeited. 

The Legitimate Theater. The theater has been declin- 
ing for many years. Between 1910 and 1925 the number of 
theaters known as "legitimate" fell from 1520 to 634.^ Two 
hundred and eighty-six shows were produced In 1929, about 
forty of which were financially successful. Two hundred and 

^ If the demand for viewing pictures should greatly increase, the number 
of performances per day could be doubled or more theaters be built. 
^ "Footlights Across America," by Kenneth MacGowan, p. 71. 



1 86 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

twelve shows were produced in 1930, of which only thirty- 
four were financially successful.^ 

From the above, it would seem as if the professional legit- 
imate theater were doomed as a national institution. It may, 
as it has before, continue to thrive in certain limited centers 
and eventually to revive. However, it no longer possesses a 
functional importance except as a training school. The photo- 
play could enable the whole people to see the best produc- 
tion and the most celebrated actors during their uniquely 
finest performance. The legitimate theater cannot compete 
on these grounds. In its heyday, only a limited audience ever 
enjoyed its masterpieces of conception and execution. And 
the necessity for indefinite repetition enervated in time all 
but the most exhibitionistic performers. 

However, the profession of acting has a peculiar appeal 
to a fraction of humanity. It may be that the amateur theaters 
will continue to grow and thereby to satisfy this subjective 
need and serve at the same time as a training school and 

o 

experimental laboratory for the great photoplay undertak- 
ings. 

Commercialized Contests. Contests, as listed on the 
Flow-Sheet, cost the people $221,545,000 in 1929. Although 
the pleasure of vicarious competition would seem, from the 
philosophic point of view, somewhat sophomoric, yet athletic 
contests probably serve society effectively in giving outlet to 
the so-called martial or pugnacious instinct. William James 
went so far as to recommend such contests as "The Moral 
Equivalent of War." 

The two chief entertainers, professional baseball and col- 
lege football, have been little corrupted by the standards of 
the market place. Although the former is frankly a money- 
making proposition, yet a high standard of integrity has 
been maintained among the players and the umpires during 

^Billboard, Sept. 6, 1930. 



RECREATION 1 87 

the past years. The few scandals, by the uproar they evoked, 
have emphasized this prevailing honesty. 

Football, although the financial mainstay of a section of 
the college budget and important to college prestige, has also 
been notably clear of double dealing. Some few athletic dul- 
lards acquire, by its intercession, a speaking and useless ac- 
quaintance with geophysics and genetic psychology, but this 
minor waste is not very serious. Even boxers, hockey players, 
and the minor-sport professionals seem to be shamed, to an 
extent rare among business men, when the normal tricks of 
their trade are exposed. No doubt this phenomenon is due to 
the fact that sport inherits its code from feudalism by way 
of the English public schools. Commerce has a less illustrious 
descent. 

The effects of the Industrial Revolution can be noted in 
the world of sport. The tourney of knights, and the bowling 
and rounders on the village green, have been transformed 
into great spectacles attended by millions. The old codes 
which rewarded the winner with an intangible prestige — a 
ribbon, a badge, or a wreath of parsley — have succumbed to 
the new code which rates the value of effort by the amount 
of money gained. 

Music and Radio. In 1929, musical instruments, sheet 
music, records, etc., were valued at $262,161,000, and con- 
certs at $11,095,000. The latter do not seem to have been 
displaced by the radio to any great extent. Probably as many 
new concert-goers are gained by their discovery of a liking 
for music from selections delivered over the air, as are lost 
by the substitution of home listening for concert attendance. 
The radio, costing $633,034,000 in 1929, was the big item 
under the head of music. 

Radio manufacturing is conspicuous for being one of the 
industries whose product capacity not only exceeds market 
requirements but also human desires. The manufacturing 



1 88 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

plants in Philadelphia alone could fill the total annual de- 
mand of the country. The industry could produce 40,- 
000,000 receiving sets a year. In 1929, 4,300,000 sets were 
sold. 

Evidently, the American family could possess several re- 
ceiving sets in the home, one in the automobile, and as many 
more as desired in trains, hotel lobbies, and other public 
places. There is no physical reason why anyone could not, 
very shortly, if physical limitations alone restrained produc- 
tion, hear music, lectures, news, etc., at any time and place 
he liked. This extension of the range of hearing has enor- 
mous potentialities for human life. At present, they cannot 
be surmised, since the American people have handed this 
extraordinary instrument over to business. And business is 
condemned by its nature to — do business. Consequently, the 
radio has been assigned to an odd task. Daily, for eighteen 
hours, it pleads and argues for people to buy this and that: 
things that exist in profusion, things everyone wants, things 
many would work for, things most of the listeners cannot 
possess without going hungry. No one seems to note the para- 
doxical character of this suasion. 

People need not be persuaded to possess things. Most 
people are naturally acquisitive, having inherited a long 
tradition of scarcity, and fearing it. What people want to 
know is how to obtain possession. The goods exist in pro- 
fusion. Desire for the goods is also ubiquitous. But the radio 
does not suggest how to connect the two. The old traditional 
way, work (for pay), has been closed to one quarter or one 
fifth of the population, and most of the rest of us in order 
to obtain some new thing, must go without some other to 
which we are accustomed. 

Fortunately, the above description is not complete. In 
order to persuade those who desire to possess but cannot, to 
listen to those who desire to give up possession but cannot, 
musicians, teachers, poets, singers, great orchestras, humor- 



RECREATION 1 89 

ists — even song birds and antarctic gropers — are enlisted 
and subsidized to say or sing or play their stunt into the mi- 
crophone. And so good comes out of an absurdity, and life 
is made more bearable by an anomaly. Perhaps Samson put 
it accurately in his riddle : "Out of the eater came forth meat, 
and out of the strong came forth sweetness." 

"Activities." In 1929, $876,397,000 was spent for the 
items listed under "Activities." This is only a partial bill 
since food and drink (consumed in cabarets, hotel rooms, 
etc.), motor gasoline, and many other items covered else- 
where, were subtracted from this total in order to prevent 
duplication. Golf, costing $249,588,000, is the conspicuous 
item. Probably this curious introspective game supplies some 
kind of a psychic compensation to the routine of business. 
The golfer must train himself to relax and to act simultane- 
ously. Doubtless, the game has definite therapeutic value. 

Obviously, general recreational activities would enor- 
mously expand if the goods and services which would be avail- 
able to the American people (if physical factors alone limited 
production) were produced and distributed. The resulting 
certainty of a comfortable living would probably turn most 
Americans out into the open during vacation time. This effect 
was conspicuous even during the hit-or-miss prosperity of 
1929. Consequently, an enormous expansion of open-air life 
may be expected. 

The existing and more or less renowned resorts could not 
provide for a greatly increased influx of visitors, even if their 
administrators desired it. It is probable that a new influx 
would be handled by the development of the recreational 
farm (known in the West as the "dude ranch"). East of 
the Mississippi, and In the neighborhood of the Rockies and 
the Pacific Coast, the countryside is dotted with camps, tour- 
ist homes, parks, and resorts. These could easily be equipped 
to care for multitudes. In many ways, they tend to be superior 



190 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

to the European spa or watering place. In Europe, people 
go to the country to breathe the fresh air and re-create the 
city. In America, the city people seem to make a serious at- 
tempt to live country lives during vacation periods. 

Unused Capacity. In estimating the unused capacity of 
the recreation items, a certain arbitrariness was unavoidable. 
All the services are subject to indefinite expansion. Millions 
of individuals desire to train themselves for teaching, doc- 
toring, nursing, acting, baseball playing and many other 
endeavors. The question before society is: How many in- 
dividuals can be spared from the production of primary 
goods, supplied with food, clothing, shelter, etc., and en- 
couraged to serve? 

The survey of physical goods shows that no additional 
men beyond the percentage employed in 1929 need be drawn 
from the general population in order to supply a comfortable 
living for every one. This leaves 85 million people more or 
less from whom to draw those most fit for the specialized 
and unspecialized services. Consequently, our only limita- 
tion in estimating product capacity of the services was "train- 
ing time." For example, a doctor needs about ten years' 
schooling. Therefore, no immediate expansion in medical care 
can be looked for beyond that which the existing staff could 
provide, if permitted to give full time to their profession. 

In recreation, on the other hand, a plethora of talent is 
on call — guides, boatmen, actors, musicians and a host of 
others. Consequently, our estimates were only limited by our 
preference for understatement. 

Table I lists the 1929 value of consumption, capacity 
(when capacity figures are calculable ) , and budget. The total 
bill for recreation is low owing to the fact that many items 
of a recreational nature are included in other categories. The 
most important of these are motor upkeep, gasoline, railroad 



Source 
Rep. 361 



Rep. SS4 
" 664 
&665 



RECREATION 

Table I 

Recreation — 1929* 

(000 Omitted) 



Item 
Theaters: 

Motion-picture $2,000,000 

221, go2 



Value (192Q dollars) 
Consumption Capacity 



Legitimate and vaudeviUe . 
Sub-total. 



2,22I,g02 



Contests: 

Baseball 

Football 

Basketball, hockey 

Boxing, wrestling 

Motor races, polo matches. 

Field days 

Horse racing 



Sub-total . 



Amusements: 

Circuses, carnivals 

Fairs, state and county 

Pageants, celebrations 

Resorts, amusements, parks. 

Sub-total 



Music: 

Radio 

Musical instruments, sheet music, 

records, etc 

Concerts and opera 



Sub- total 

Activities: 

Golf, including dues 

Boating, outboard sailing 

Riding horses 

Hunting, fishing 

Bowling, billiards 

Minor sports 

Playing cards 

Theater, amateur 

Athletic clubs 

Aviation, flying, gliding 

Fireworks 

Dancing, supper, night clubs (e.xcluding 
food and drink) 



Sub- total 

Miscellaneous: 

Pets, dogs, cats, birds 

Rep.t 685 Books, games, athletic supplies. 

Travel: 

Foreign travel 



WSt 223 



Resort rooms: 
Camping, recreation farms, dude ranches 



GRAND TOTAL. 



40,678 
71.725 
4.362 
12,401 
12,590 
10,314 
69.47s. 



6,218,390 



191 



Budget 

52, 500,000 
500,000 



660,000 



221,545 










29,584 








50,000 


33.282 








40 , 000 


10,462 








20,000 


177,920 








351,000 


251,248 




461,000 


633.034 


1.899 


102 


1 


000,000 


262,162 


296 


243 




296,243 


11.095 








16,000 


906,291 


1 


312,243 


349.558 






1 


000,000 


18.751 








25,000 


13.462 








15,000 


94.485 








94,485 


102,948 








102,948 


167,890 








200,000 


20 , 000 








30,000 


11,062 








40 , 000 


41,072 








60,000 


11,910 








20 , 000 


5.342 








5, 000 


39.897 








100,000 


876,377 


I 


692.433 


15.48s 








20,100 


579.297 


1. 158 


594 


I 


.158,594 


885.248 








885,000 


260,997 






3 


, 000 , 000 



12,189,370 



* Source: Except where otherwise noted, all data taken from "American Consumer Market," 
various issues, Business Week, 1932 
t "Rep." and "WS" stand for "Report" and "Worksheet," respectively, of the N.S.P.P.C. 



192 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

travel, hotel rooms, delicacies, sport clothes, tobacco and 
drink. Consequently, the recreation section should be con- 
sidered a listing of only such recreational items as do not 
belong to some more fundamental category. 

Summary. Since recreation, like the other services, could 
be indefinitely expanded if a sufficiency of the necessary ma- 
terial goods was available for all the people, and since the 
Survey indicates that such a sufficiency would be available if 
physical factors alone limited production, the recreation re- 
quirements on the chart are the equivalent of the capacity esti- 
mates of the physical commodities. If production were 
released, not only could recreational facilities be rapidly 
expanded until our budget was fulfilled, but the budget esti- 
mate could be easily and vastly surpassed. 

Should the fundamental economic problem be solved, and 
plenty and security be provided to the people as a normal, 
natural right, the particular problem in the recreational field 
would not be how to increase recreation, but rather how to 
determine the nature of recreation. It is not certain that so- 
ciety has yet discovered how to re-create the individual, nor 
the individual how to create a society. 

Harold Loeb 



CHAPTER XVI 

FOREIGN TRADE 

Since the United States is not a wholly self-contained 
economy, a volume of important goods appearing in the 
budget is of foreign origin. So it is necessary to discuss the 
subject of imports and exports as they relate to our product 
capacity. 

Our "favorable"^ balance of trade, persisting over many 
years, has had certain definite and very troublesome results. 
Foreign countries owe the United States probably as much 
as ten billion dollars on net balance and we hold close to 
half the world's supply of monetary gold; also, exchange 
(payment) difficulties are restraining our international 
trade; and, finally, we have huge stocks of various com- 
modities held as "surpluses" but destined for export. At the 
same time, foreign producers are eager to supply those goods 
which we may lack — always provided that the exigencies of 
"profitable" business are met. 

In such circumstances it may seem unnecessary to study 
foreign trade. However, when our budgeted needs for sev- 
eral items are considered and compared with our 1929 pro- 
duction, apparent surpluses disappear, and greatly expanded 
imports for certain other commodities are needed. Thus a 
new balance of exports and imports is clearly indicated — a 
new balance in which imports will include not only those 
goods we actually obtained from abroad in 1929, but addi- 
tional quantities required to bridge the gaps between our 
product capacity and the budget. With exports so selected 
from the list of our excess capacities these goods may 

^The classical definition of a "favorable" balance of trade, peculiarly 
enough, counts as favorable an excess of exports over imports — i.e., a net 
loss of real wealth. 

193 



194 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

be shipped abroad without reducing our budgeted quanti- 
ties. 

Tables I and II considered together present such a new 
balance between exports and imports. 

Table I 
Imports, Actual and Needed* 

Item Actual, 1929$ Needed 

Hides and skins $ 137,281,000 $ 192,206,000! 

Rubber 240,966,000 250,084,000 

Silk 427,126,000 846,000,000 

Wool 87,344,000 381,000,000 

All other 3,506,644,000 4,006,644,000 

_ Total l4,399»36i ,000 ^5,675,934,000 

Actual imports 4,399,361,000 

Additional imports required for budget ^1,276,573,000 

* Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1931. Needed Imports are 
the differences between budget and capacity as shown in Column VI (table). Ap- 
pendix. 

t This figure was calculated by totaling the value of hides and skins produced 
in the United States, the value of hides and skins imported and the value of leather 
imported (leather value was reduced ZZYz% for comparability with hides and skins). 
The budgeted increase for leather boots and shoes, 10%, was applied to the total 
so obtained. 

X In 1929 the money spent by Americans in foreign travel amounted to $638,000,- 
000, according to the "Balance of Payments of the United States," an annual 
publication of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, U. S. Department 
of Commerce. This figure does not appear in our statement of actual imports 
since it is probably balanced by remittances to foreigners, interest on the Foreign 
Debt, and other similar exports. 

In Table I, the specified increases represent those major 
items needed to meet the clothing and transportation budgets. 
The figure for rubber is based upon actual consumption in 
1929 corrected for the twenty-five-per-cent enlarged auto- 
motive budget. In 1929 rubber imports were considerably 
greater than actual consumption. 

"All other" imports are increased by 500 million dollars, 
a blanket sum ample to cover the possible requirements for 
such items as the rarer minerals, furs, coffee and tea, cocoa, 
flax, cane sugar, and similar raw materials not found or 
grown in this country in suflicient abundance. Any attempt to 
fix definite quantities for this long and varied list would be 



FOREIGN TRADE 195 

largely guesswork. The importation of many items will fluc- 
tuate with advances in technology, with changes in the vol- 
ume of our industrial production, and with shifts in public 
taste. For instance, dietitians recommend that we eat far less 
sugar and drink much more milk, so if our food habits are 
thus altered, our sugar imports will be cut sharply. The ex- 
pansion of our dairy herds (see Chapter II, Agriculture) 
will increase our annual supply of not only milk but leather 
as well. 

For these reasons we have consciously set what we con- 
sider a high figure on "needed" importations. Let us turn 
now to the goods which our 1929 product capacity could 
supply for export while still furnishing the quantities our 
own budget demands. Table II shows these items together 
with our actual exports in 1929. 

In these tables the export total is some 1,158 million dol- 
lars greater than the figure for imports, thus affording either 
a margin of expansion for imports (i.e., foreign trade, travel, 
and similar expenditures), or substantial curtailment of any 
export item should the need arise. 

Some factors guiding this selection of possible exports de- 
serve mention. Since the potential volume of any agricul- 
tural crop depends almost entirely upon the fraction of the 
total acreage planted to it, and since the budget require- 
ments involve the full use of our present crop acreage, we 
have been forced to eliminate cotton, meat products, fruits 
and nuts, and the like, as possible exports. Furthermore, our 
reserves of forest products and copper are relatively small, 
and, necessarily, we must import rubber. Moreover, these 
goods demand a relatively greater expenditure of labor than 
those industrial products which are recommended for export. 
In other words, in determining which products should be 
exported, we referred always to the peculiarities of our 
economy, to the labor entailed, and to our national resources 
as a whole. 



196 



REPORT OF THE N. 
Table II 



S. P. P. C. 



Actual and Possible Exports — 1929^ 



Actual Exports 
Petroleum products 


$ 561,191,000 

146,083,000 

106, 151,000 

30,998,000 

78,756,000 

124,066,000 

905,945,000 

137,467,000 

195,990,000 

28,414,000 

42 , 943 , 000 

541,396,000 
110,637,000 

40,938,000 
492 , 697 , 000 
200,143,000 
183, 404 , 000 

76,953,000 
1,038,819,000 


Possible Exports 
Petroleum products $ 


561,191,000 
1 46 , 083 , 000 






106, 151,000 


Naval stores (gums and resin) . . 


Naval stores (gums and resin) , . 


30,998,000 
375,808,000 


Animal fats and oils 

Cotton, raw and manufactured. 


Business and office appliances. . 

Construction machinery 

Food processing machinery. . . . 

Metal-working machinery 

Mining machinery 

Pump and hydraulic machinery 
Power generators and trans- 
formers 

Misc. industrial machinery. . . . 

Locomotives and cars 

Meters and instruments 

Miscellaneous machinery i 

Misc. tools 


170,188,000 
112,476,000 
291,969,000 


Rye and wheat (including flour) 


463,547,000 
169,178,000 




156,271,000 


Automobiles (including engine 
parts) 


493,761,000 
241 ,329,000 


Other wood manufactures 

Machinery, all classes 

Iron and steel-mill products 

Copper and manufactures 


58,241,000 

113,131,000 

,219,010,000 

40,078,000 

124,252,000 


Other exports 


Misc. non-metal equipment. . . . 


24,187,000 

131,750,000 

30,750,000 




$5,157,083,000 






Misc. machine parts 

Misc. chemicals 


234,866,000 
150,000,000 




Soap 

Allied products (chemicals) .... 
Other exports 1 


50 , 000 , 000 

100,000,000 

,038,819,000 



$6,834,034,000 
5. 675, 934, 000 



Needed imports (Table I) . 



Excess, exports minus im- 
ports $1, 158,100,000 



♦Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1931. Appendix, Cols. IV, V and VI (tables). 



Although the figures of Table II demonstrate our ability 
to maintain an even balance of trade while impbrting more 
than five billion dollars' worth of foreign goods, it may be 
well to discuss certain aspects of our foreign trade in more 
detail. 

Machinery of one sort or another accounts for 53.6% of 
possible exports. How does this volume, $3,665,726,000 
worth, compare with our 1929 capacity to produce such 
goods? In that year, machinery actually turned out was 
valued at $7,043,000,000 (exclusive of transportation 
equipment). This amount was 50% of our existing capacity. 
So this major demand can be met by calling upon slightly 
more than half the unused capacity to produce such goods. 
Capacity as defined in Chapter VII, "Manufacturing," in- 
volves two-shift operation throughout this industry. Skilled 



FOREIGN TRADE 1 97 

labor is not now available. However, if budgeted production 
were adopted, two or three years would suffice to train the 
additional labor force of 393,000 workers^ for capacity 
operations. 

It should be borne in mind that this study of foreign trade 
is tentative in the sense that it does not seek to specify ac- 
curately those goods which would be produced for export, 
but merely suggests a general scheme of production demon- 
strably within our product capacity. 

Though such an approach neglects the very real problems 
that beset international trade today, this is unavoidable. The 
procedure suggested above posits a trade based upon the 
satisfaction of mutual needs, a much simpler proposition than 
contemporary trade practices, which are directed toward 
selling goods and make no provision for the exchange of 
products. The result is that nations, or rather the entre- 
preneurs within nations, compete in pressing goods on the 
market, while the return flow of goods is hampered by tariffs, 
etc. The inevitable result is to restrict the exchange of goods 
and consequently to limit consumer satisfactions. 

If we assume that the desirability of producing the budget 
quota is accepted and acted upon, trade practices would of 
necessity undergo radical alteration. There would be noth- 
ing unprecedented about such a change of direction. Several 
countries already have adopted centralized control of inter- 
national barter. 

This very brief digression does not purport to offer solu- 
tions to the intricate problems of commerce between na- 
tions. Any attempt to do so would carry us far afield. We 
do, however, feel warranted in asserting that none of these 

^ Neither this number nor those additional workers needed to produce the 
other items (in excess of the 1929 export total) are included in Appendix 
Table XXIII or in Table III, Chapter XVII, Labor. These workers were 
omitted because "possible exports" are tentative, would require negotiation 
with foreign governments and would probably be deferred one or more years. 
Thus the estimated annual increase in available labor (703,000 persons) 
should cover this need. 



198 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

problems would be aggravated should the United States 
adopt a system of budgeted production; that the drift of na- 
tional policies Is toward some such procedure; and, finally, 
that our own product capacity would enable us to acquire the 
large volume of goods we need from abroad without cur- 
tailing our enjoyment of domestic consumer goods or main- 
taining our unwholesome status as a creditor nation. 

William B. Smith 



CHAPTER XVII 

LABOR 

In considering the working force which would be required 
to produce the items Hsted in our budget, it is obvious that 
one of two demands must be met. Either longer or more in- 
tensive effort by individuals is needed, or an increased per- 
centage of our population must be called upon for service in 
individual pursuits. 

More than ten millions of our customary labor force were 
unable in 1934 to obtain employment under any conditions 
of hours or wages. This distressing phenomenon must dis- 
tort any estimate of effective personnel. Enforced unemploy- 
ment with its demoralizing concomitants, want, misery, and 
fear, and the psychologically damaging features of such 
palliatives as the dole and "work relief" at inadequate pay, 
have undoubtedly undermined our working force to a very 
serious degree. However, lacking any basis for statistical 
measurements, we have disregarded these imponderable fac- 
tors. Since humanity readily adapts itself to altered external 
conditions, it is perhaps justifiable to assume that a general 
return to active employment would quickly offset the damag- 
ing effects of this depression period. 

Before presenting a detailed work schedule, it may be well 
to attempt some broad delineation of our potential working 
force and thus establish an upper limit to our labor supply 
which we may compare with the number actually at work 
during 1929 and the total required for operations at budget 
rates in various industries and services. 

In Table I every person whose age is between twenty 
and sixty years is considered as a potential worker. So re- 
garded, the number indicates a huge reserve of hitherto un- 

199 



200 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table I 

Labor Resources and Utilization 

(Potential) (Actual) 

Total Total 

Persons Persons Required 

20 to 60 Years Gainfully Employed for Budget 

of Age in 1929 Operationsf 

65,241,000* 45,857,000 51,429,000 

* Figure from the estimate based on 1930 Census. It is here assumed that the 
number of persons ill or incapacitated in this age group will be balanced by those 
in the age groups "under twenty and over sixty years of age" who are able to work 
and would desire to do so. 

t Number represents full-time employment at hours customary in 1929. 

used capacity. However, it will be more informative to limit 
the working force to that number which may legitimately 
be called "available" for work today, i.e., those whom cus- 
tom or necessity urges into the ranks of the gainfully em- 
ployed. The Census lists 48,830,000 as the number of 
gainfully employed workers on April i, 1930. If to this total 
is added the annual increase in employables, 703,000,^ the 
present figure (February i, 1935) may be taken as 52,- 
345,000. 

Accepting this figure as the total labor supply, let us see 
how these millions were dispersed throughout the various 
occupations in 1929 and what changes in personnel the budget 
stipulates. 

The calculations for this breakdown are based upon cur- 
rent production techniques and trade practices. They do not 
reflect the possibilities inherent in improved management, 
nor in the modernization of equipment and kindred methods 
of increasing output per worker. Thus it is clear that the 
budget makes no demands which lie beyond the already 
demonstrated capabilities of those accustomed to work.^ 

* Senate Document No. 124, p. 18, 73rd Congress, Second Session; U. S. 
Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C. 

''Appendix Table XXIII shows some 11,567,000 persons as the labor re- 
quirement in manufacturing. This figure expresses our estimate of the 
effects of technical improvements introduced since 1929. While we believe 
this estimate to be a fair one, in order to be conservative the labor require- 
ment for manufacturing industry as discussed in this chapter has been in- 
creased by 867,000 persons. 



LABOR 201 

Table II 
Breakdown of Labor by Industries 

1929* Required 

Farming 9,225,000! 9,604,000! 

Mining and quarrying i ,070,000 984,000 

Electric light and power 336,000 352,000 

Manufacturing 10,023,000 12,434,000$ 

Construction 1,528,000 2,437,000 

Transportation 3,073,000 2,825,000 

Communication 533,000 519,000 

Trade 7 j 1 63 , 000 7 , 1 63 , 000 

Finance i ,422,000 i ,422,000 

Civil 3 , 003 , 000 4 , 830 , 000 

Recreation and amusement 455,000 500,000 

Professional 1,304,000 1,451,000 

Personal service 1,112,000 i ,296,000 

Domestic service 2,309,000 2,311 ,000 

Business service 62,000 62,000 

Misc. service 291,000 291,000 

Misc. industries 2,948,000 2,948,000 

Grand total 45,857,ooo§ 5i,429,ooo§l| 

* Senate Document No. 124, 73rd Congress, Second Session; U. S. Government 
Printing Office, Washington, D. C. 

t Including 1,633,000 unpaid farm laborers, not reduced to full-time equivalent. 

J For discussion of this figure, which does not include 393,000 workers required 
for capacity machinery production, see notes to Chapter XVI, "Foreign Trade." 

§ Figures include all entrepreneurs, 5,565,000 farmers, and 3,455,000 of all other 
occupations. 

II This total is undoubtedly high, owing to technological improvements in many 
lines of industry. Although the savings in man-hours can be estimated for specific 
fiictories and processes, no satisfactory summation of these savings is available. 

However, it Is Important to know the hours of labor which 
are Involved in such a budget and so gauge, at least roughly, 
the human effort entailed. The figures in Table II represent 
the full-time equivalent wherever it was possible to estimate 
partial employment and reduce the number so engaged to a 
full-time basis. This is notably true of agriculture where 
6,029,000 farmers (owners and tenants) and 2,694,000 
wage earners ( 1929) are considered as representing the full- 
time work of 5,495,000 and 2,027,000 persons,^ respectively. 

In the professional services, doctors, dentists, nurses, and 

^ Figures from Senate Document No. 124. Full-time equivalent as used 
here is determined from the total time worked by persons employed part 
time and a calculation of the number that would be required on a full-time 
basis. 



202 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Others were not reduced to the full-time equivalent for 1929 
but these persons are assumed to be fully occupied in the 
calculations for required labor. In trade (retail and whole- 
sale), the full-time equivalent is used, also in manufacturing 
and construction. The last is defined institutionally. In other 
words, the figure excludes construction work performed by 
industrial or governmental organizations with the help of 
their own forces. The full-time equivalent is used in trans- 
portation, but taxicab drivers (about 153,000) are excluded, 
being classified under miscellaneous industries. Finance, which 
includes banking, insurance and real estate, largely represents 
the average number employed (without correction for idle or 
part time employees). Civil employments embrace fed- 
eral, state, city, and county occupations. The 1929 figure 
includes a large number of temporary workers (reduced to 
full-time equivalent) in the construction field. 

Table III 

Full-Time Hours of Work by Industries 

Hours Weeks 

per Week per Year 

Agriculture 60* 26-52 

Mining and quarrying 48 50 . 8 

Electric light and power 48 52 

Manufacturing < ^^I 

Construction 48 52 

Transportation 48 52 

Trade 48-60 40-52 

Finance 44 50 

Civil 36-48§ 36-52 

Recreation and amusement 44-48 50-52 

Professional || 

Domestic service 48-60 52 

Business service 44-48 50-52 

Misc, service || 

Misc. industries 48-54 50-52 

* Including care of livestock, repairs on machinery and similar tasks. 

t Estimate by the National Industrial Conference Board, as quoted by the 
American Paper and Pulp Association in the public hearing on the Paper and 
Pulp Code, September 14, 1933. 

I "America's Capacity to Consume," page 129, The Brookings Institution. 
§ Includes teachers; hence, wide variation in hours. 

II Character of work makes estimate impossible. 



LABOR 203 

Detailed data regarding average hours of work are not 
available for all occupational groups, but the figures pre- 
sented in Table III may serve as a rough index of the maxi- 
mum productive effort our working force should exert in 
meeting our budget with the 1929 conditions of equipment, 
managerial skill, competitive trade, and similar factors pre- 
vailing. 

Aside from small professional groups and those farmers 
specializing in a single crop, grain, fruit, etc., the requisite 
hours of labor are rather long — far too long to allow much 
leisure or that measure of recreational and educational ac- 
tivity which should be enjoyed, as a natural right, by all. 

However, several favorable factors influencing the pro- 
ductivity of labor deserve at least passing mention, and jus- 
tify the prediction that our economic system can supply goods 
and services to the value of 135 billion dollars under a work 
schedule far less onerous than the above figures suggest. 

Nearly thirteen million persons are occupied in the manu- 
facturing industries. The index of productivity per worker 
in this group has risen markedly since 1869.^ From a low of 
$1485 in that year, the total value of output per wage earner 
rose to a peak of $4949 in 1932, both amounts being ex- 
pressed in 1913 dollars.^ 

This indicates a production increase of about 8.5% dur- 
ing each five-year period. Moreover, this rate appears to 
have accelerated in the decade from 1919 to 1929, during 
which time the value added by each worker in manufacturing 
grew from $2754 to $3607. Reducing both figures to the 

* Appendix, Table V. 

' Although the total value per worker is a useful index establishing the 
trend, it should be remembered that such figures include a great deal of du- 
plication and do not represent the net value of each worker's output. "Value 
added by manufacture" (as reported by the U. S. Census of Manufactures) 
since 1919 largely eliminates duplications for materials, etc., and may be 
taken as a fair basis for determining the actual dollar value of output per 
worker. Thus the projected labor force in manufacturing alone would create 
some forty-seven billion dollars net of new values annually. See Appendix 
Charts V a and V b. 



204 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

1913 dollar basis, the increase is 26.6%. Many recent re- 
ports from various industrial enterprises suggest that pro- 
ductivity per worker has gained steadily since 1929. 

The same tendency is apparent in agriculture. The Brook- 
ings Institution-^ estimates that agricultural production has 
expanded more than 40% since 1900 while the labor units 
have increased less than 7%. Even with this significant de- 
velopment, farming operations are still carried on at a re- 
latively low level of efficiency and there seems good reason 
shortly to expect a further and more rapid increase in pro- 
ductivity per worker. Not only wider mechanization but 
other improvements in farming methods promise great sav- 
ings in labor hours. These possibilities are considered in 
Chapter II, "Agriculture." 

Thus these two industries (agriculture and manufactur- 
ing), which engage more than 40% of the working force, 
may reasonably be expected either to operate with a steadily 
diminishing personnel or to afford those occupied an ever- 
increasing amount of leisure. 

Transportation, the extractive industries, construction, 
and light and power, though less spectacular in their recent 
gains, show the same trend toward greater productivity per 
worker. So we may conclude that to supply the goods making 
up our budget will not unduly burden the more than twenty- 
two million men and women who are called upon for such 
service. 

In the past, competitive trade with its incalculable waste 
through duplication of facilities and the like, has employed 
an ever larger proportion of the total labor force. ^ Today, 
business — each unit fighting for a share of the consumer's 

* "America's Capacity to Produce," p. 36. 

^ "The total volume of output per worker in distribution in general, there- 
fore, increased but very little during this [1918-1928] decade . . . some- 
thing more than the blind workings of competition and the self-interest of 
individual business men may be needed to develop real efficiency in this 
field." — "The Economic Bases for The Agricultural Adjustment Act," p. 24, 
U. S. Department of Agriculture, Dec. 1933. 



LABOR 205 

dollar — engages over seven million persons to distribute or 
"sell" the products of farm and factory. Retail trade es- 
pecially is notorious for demanding long hours of service 
from its workers. It hardly seems necessary to observe that 
a more rational method of distribution would effect startling 
and highly desirable economies in this field. 

In the service professions, quite a different set of condi- 
tions obtains. Here, output per worker is more difficult to 
gauge. Aside from the gains implicit in the use of better 
equipment (modern schools and hospitals, the various media 
of mass communication, and the like) , production per worker 
shows no tendency to increase. Therefore these occupations 
are expanded notably under the budget. Our estimates pro- 
vide more teachers per hundred pupils, more dentists per 
hundred inhabitants, more recreational attendants, and so 
on. The medical and nursing staff is discussed in Chapter 
XIII. 

Since the production and distribution of ample consumer 
goods, together with a considerable replacement of plant 
equipment, is. provided for in the labor budget, an increase 
in the service personnel appears both practical and desirable. 
Neglecting the spiritual values inherent in such a program, 
better education, better health, and a generally higher intel- 
lectual level must inevitably enhance the productivity of our 
labor force. 

Viewing the subject of labor as a whole, then, certain 
definite conclusions may be drawn: 

(a) Our potential working force exceeds by some thir- 
teen million the number required to provide those goods 
and services which total $135,000,000,000 in the budget. 

(b) Our customary working force, if subject to 1929 
conditions, exceeds the budget requirement by almost a 
million. 

(c) The trend of productive capacity promises shorter 



206 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

hours of labor and/or a greater volume of output, with no 
physical limit to this tendency as yet discernible. 

(d) Our current growth in population adds some 703,- 
000^ employables each year above the number who pass be- 
yond the working age, while medical science is extending the 
upper age limit of man's productive capability. 

These facts are of deep social significance. They show 
clearly that our American society is equipped to provide a 
comfortable living for all its members. Any utilization of 
our resources which fails to achieve such a result (which in 
dollar value is almost 50% above the 1929 output) inflicts a 
wholly unnecessary burden of want and deprivation upon 
those families (more than 85% in 1929^) whose monetary 
income falls below $4,000. 

It lies beyond the scope of this Survey to outline the pat- 
tern of a correctly functioning society; however, certain sug- 
gestions may be in order where they relate to the better em- 
ployment of men and material. 

Any labor surplus should be directed jirst toward full 
modernization of existing equipment. When this is accom- 
plished and the resultant increases in worker productivity 
are determined, labor should be "spread" to provide some 
leisure for every citizen. How much leisure we require and 
how much effort should be devoted to "useful" production 
are question upon which an informed public should pass. 

In summation, then, America's labor force is more than 
adequate to its immediate task: the full production of needed 
consumer goods and services, together with a rapid replace- 
ment of plant and equipment. 

William B. Smith 

* Senate Document No. 124, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session. 
^"America's Capacity to Consume," 'I'he Brookings Institution, Washing- 
ton, D. C. 



CHAPTER XVIII 

SUMMARY 

To discover the accomplished production in a given indus- 
try is one matter. The problem of estimating either the possi- 
ble production (capacity) or the desirable possible produc- 
tion (budget) is quite another. The first problem is solely 
one of statistical calculation. The second is one of estima- 
tion. 

Little need be said about the N.S.P.P.C.'s work in record- 
ing the actual production achieved, in the years studied, by 
American industry. It was a straight statistical job of factual 
compilation. Only authoritative sources, for the most part 
governmental, were drawn upon. The results obtained repre- 
sent only the observed facts. Industry did this and that, and 
in so doing produced such and such items in observed quanti- 
ties. 

The reasons for industry having done thus and so instead 
of something else which might have been done — namely, the 
operation of our productive equipment at higher output rates 
— are inextricably bound up in our institutions and habits. 
Furthermore, the premises from which capacity estimates 
are drawn are only in part made up of scientifically measura- 
ble factors. The output of a given machine operating twenty- 
four hours a day for three hundred and sixty-five days a 
year can be expressed by a fixed quantity. But machines sel- 
dom if ever run that way. Allowing needed time for repairs 
and maintenance, they nevertheless, are dependent upon the 
operation of subsidiary or contributing industries which sup- 
ply the fuel they convert into energy, and the material they 
fabricate. This material may be physically seasonal, as in 
much of the canning industry, or it may be the product or by- 

207 



208 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

product of other industries, as in the chemical and tanning 
industries. In most cases, it must be transported by haulage 
agencies. Thus it is seen that the possible production of a 
given industrial mechanism is dependent not only upon its 
own physical characteristics, but, upon the operation of other 
mechanisms and the availability of supplies as well. 

Events and happenings exterior to the machine itself in- 
fluence its rate of production. It may be attended and man- 
aged in one manner or in another manner. Not only equipment 
but also management affects production, and, consequently, 
capacity. Change in management alone has been known to 
double and triple production. Again, identical machines may 
be put to a number of differing uses. For each item turned 
out, a different capacity rating must be given. 

Let us set ourselves, for instance, the problem of estimat- 
ing, in ton-miles, our freight-haulage capacity. In this case 
capacity depends, in part, upon method. If we dispatched all 
long-distance freight by rail — that is, such part as is habit- 
ually not carried by water, pipe line, etc. — and relegated 
the short hauls to motor trucks, the ton-mile capacity of all 
systems would be increased by some lOO billion ton-miles, or 
15% of the 1929 haulage. 

But machines are not the only productive agencies. Agri- 
culture, animal husbandry, horticulture, labor, the profes- 
sions, services, etc. — these, too, are productive agencies. How 
many pigs can we raise and how many teeth can we pull? In 
the case of pigs, we must consider corn acreage and yield, 
meat-packing facilities, transportation, refrigeration, stor- 
age, and similar factors. Obviously, it would not do to cover 
the country with pigs beyond our handling means and con- 
sumption needs. Having estimated the various handling ca- 
pacities and having discovered that no "bottlenecks" or 
difficulties exist, the question is found to need restating. What 
quantity of pork and pork products do we need? A budget 
and not a capacity estimate is now required. The same applies 



SUMMARY 209 

to pulling teeth, for nobody wants a sound tooth pulled. 
Training facilities for dentists having first been found to be 
adequate, we can obviously accept just as many candidates 
for the profession of dentistry as the proper care of our 
teeth dictates and as our material living supplies can sup- 
port. 

With these considerations, and many others, in mind, ca- 
pacity estimates, based upon authoritative and carefully 
worked-out definitions, were made wherever possible. Guided 
by our Definition b (Foreword), we first studied "capacity" 
in all departments of our economy. When raw materials be- 
gan to approach their finished form, and the question of 
choice, or allocation, became crucial, budget studies were 
made and eventually extended to Include the entire list of 
goods and services. In order to avoid the impertinence of 
suggesting what the American people ought to consume, we 
based our budgets upon the actual expenditures of persons 
who had attained an income status sufficiently high to release 
them from critical concern over pecuniary considerations. 
The United .States Census classifications then gave us the 
number of persons by age, sex, and occupation, and we thus 
obtained the information with which to build a national 
budget. 

This technique enabled us to allocate unused capacities to 
such uses as would round out the consumer-goods budget. 
Thus, for instance, our unused steel capacity could be allo- 
cated to housing and other construction, machinery, and 
such other departments of the national economy as would 
best, according to our budget estimates, promote consumer 
satisfaction. 

Our studies revealed, almost at the outset, that capacity 
operation even under Definition b would sometimes, espe- 
cially in the capital-goods industries, result in both unneeded 
and unwanted commodities. On the other hand, capacity 
operation of all equipment could not be conducted simul- 



2 10 REPORT OF THE N, S. P. P. C. 

taneously, owing to inadequacies of supplies or labor or both. 
Consequently our ultimate research resolved itself into dis- 
covering if an output consonant with the budget (estimated 
needs and reasonable wants of the American people as at 
present constituted and conditioned) was feasible. 
We will consider food first.^ 

Food. This industry may be divided into two sections, raw 
food production (agriculture, horticulture, animal hus- 
bandry, etc.) and the food-processing industry (flour mills, 
canning, packing, etc.). 

Raw-food production is probably the least coordinated 
and the least mechanized of all productive enterprises. This 
is due largely to the fact that, as well as being an industry, 
farming is a "way of life." In many sections of our country, 
it is also an isolated way of life. 

Due to traditional habits, isolation, and a general lack of 
coordination, the restriction of production in order to main- 
tain profits, which prevails in other industries, has — until 
recent (1933) government action — not been widely exerted. 
The practice of restricting production in agriculture has 
largely come after rather than before the disappearance of 
profits. 

While agro-biological and allied sciences have made great 
strides in recent years, our agricultural performance, due to 
a manifold of the conditions mentioned in the preceding para- 
graph, has fallen far short of what our knowledge makes 
possible. Between the rank and file of farms and those most 
up to date, the difference in production efficiency is probably 
greater than a similar comparison in most other enterprises. 
Nevertheless, encouraging progress has been noted. Agri- 

^ Attention must be called to the basic conceptual difference between the 
National Survey of Potential Product Capacity's study and most previous 
and contemporary studies. In all cases we considered actual physical pro- 
duction as the foundation of our work. Dollars were used only to provide a 
frame or common denominator by which diverse items could be made com- 
parable. 



SUMMARY 211 

cultural production per worker increased 28% between 1919 
and 1929, largely due to a 100% increase in available power 
and the steady growth of associations for herd improvement, 
corn growing, poultry breeding and the like. 

No capacities for farm produce — nor for other raw ma- 
terials — have been given on our Flow-Sheet. The problem 
was surveyed in Chapter II. Capacities were found for the 
most part to be indefinite — that is, expansible at will — which, 
in our economy, means whenever demand for an increased 
production becomes effective. No limitations need be set as to 
size, breed, or care of herds and flocks — no limiting restric- 
tions on acreage or climate exist which could affect budgeted 
production. In this country we can accomplish whatever ef- 
fective demand may require. The accuracy of our conclusions 
is evidenced by the fact that between 1923 and 1928 the 
American farmer, without increasing acreage and with an ac- 
tual decrease in man-power, stepped up production some 
27%. Subsequent agro-biological advances make it apparent 
that under the stimulus of an aggressive demand, he could 
surpass this record. 

Limited buying power has forced many families to fall 
back upon the cheap starchy foods, such as potatoes, bread, 
macaroni, etc., in lieu of the more expensive legumes, fruits, 
dairy products, and meat. Our research shows, however, that 
these valuable dietary items are non-produced in desirable 
quantities not because of any deficiency in the means of their 
production, but solely because effective demand for them is 
lacking. 

We arrived at our food budget by assuming that the entire 
population would eat the "liberal diet" as given by the De- 
partment of Agriculture. To this statistical list of foodstuffs, 
we added the scarcity items (caviar, etc.) and the alcoholic 
beverages, in such quantities as were consumed in 1929. No 
quantitative deductions were made for the lessened consump- 
tion of some ten million children and infants under five years 



212 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

of age. Therefore a waste by spoilage somewhat greater than 
allowed for in our calculations would not derange the budget. 

Should buying power be increased until it gave effective 
expression to the population's desire for food, society might 
begin to revise its eating habits in closer conformity to the 
ideal diet laid down by the Department of Agriculture. How- 
ever, to effect such an alteration in dietary habits would, 
in all probability, require more time than to effect the neces- 
sary changes in production, as estimated in Chapter II. Such 
deficiencies as exist present no quantitative difficulties. All 
the physical requirements for their correction are present in 
the national economy. Rate of growth, and not a physical 
quantity such as acres or man hoiirs^ is the limiting factor. 
Therefore the food budget, while attainable, differs from the 
other budgeted productions in that it could not be fulfilled 
immediately. 

Nearly all foodstuffs require some degree of handling, 
processing, storage, transportation, etc., before they become 
available to the ultimate consumer. In the food sections of 
our Flow-Sheet, capacities refer exclusively to processing, 
storage, and similar handling. In estimating these capacities, 
seasonality was duly considered. Canning plants for fruit, 
berries, fish, etc., due to lack of the necessary raw material, 
can frequently be run only a few months, and sometimes 
weeks, per year. 

Despite the obsoleteness of much of the equipment ( The 
American Machinist estimates 46%), the capacities of the 
food-processing industries are nevertheless ample and far 
exceed not only our present available raw-material supply to 
feed these machines, but also our budget needs. Bakery prod- 
ucts, in 1929, showed an unused capacity of 43% for bread, 
90% for cake, and 56% for crackers. Carbonated and other 
non-alcoholic beverages utilized only 33% of plant capacity. 
Had raw materials been available, canned fruits and vege- 
tables could have been turned out in quantities four times as 



SUMMARY 213 

great as the amount actually produced. Candy production 
utilized 72% of plant capacity, chocolate and cocoa but 
185/2%, flour 57%. In 1929, meat-packing plants, operating 
two shifts, could have processed twice as much as they did. 
Ice-cream plants ran at only 37% of their rated capacity, 
cane-sugar and beet-sugar refineries at 60% and ^(>%y re- 
spectively. On the basis of fleet utilization, the 1929 catch of 
fish was 85% of capacity. As we go down through the list 
of minor items (see Chapter IX, "Food Processing"), the 
same story of ample unutilized processing capacities is un- 
folded. 

With respect to bulk and calories, an individual's food con- 
sumption tends to remain at or near a certain level if life is 
to be sustained and the energy needed for daily physical ac- 
tivities is to be supplied. Due to the size of the stomach and 
the functioning of the digestive processes, this is true regard- 
less of whether we be millionaires or paupers. Low-income 
families spending as little as $350 to $500 annually for food 
are not two-thirds or half starved. Nevertheless the mere 
adequacy of "bulk" and "calories" in a given cheap ration 
can be very deceptive from the point of view of health. Such 
measurements neglect the vital question of balanced nutri- 
tion. Not only are the cheap diets, which our low-income 
families habitually consume, less tasty and palatable, but they 
usually fail to supply vitamins and basic nutrients in quanti- 
ties necessary for healthy child growth or the maintenance 
of adult well-being. 

Even when measured by the imperfect yardstick of the 
1929 retail dollar, the disparity between the statistical rec- 
ord of what we actually did eat and the budget estimate of 
what we should eat, is found to be small. The total deficit 
of some three billion dollars for 1929 does not, however, 
gauge our unfilled dietary needs in that year. Nor can the 
most detailed comparison of budget and production more 
than suggest the grave inadequacy of our existing food sup- 



214 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

ply. This deplorable lack is more truly reflected in the find- 
ings of medical surveys, army tests, and other studies which 
scrutinize our national health. 

To arrive at the total retail value of all dietary items 
actually produced, the "imputed" monetary value of foods 
produced and eaten on farms must be added to the values 
of items in the procurement of which money actually changes 
hands. Some billion and a half dollars' worth of foods and 
beverages are annually home-produced and consumed on our 
farms. While these products are not bought on the market, 
nevertheless, they constitute real wealth for which an ac- 
counting must be made. Failure to do this would obviously 
make all food expenditure comparisons between country 
and city dwellers impossible or fallacious. 

In 1929, the sum of such "imputed" items of food when 
added to the total of commercial production, amounted to 
almost 27 billion dollars. Our budget calls for an expendi- 
ture of about 30 billion dollars, including the luxury foods 
produced and consumed in 1929. The difference, about 3 
billion dollars' worth, seems small. Nevertheless, it is suf- 
ficient to account for the substitution of one item of diet for 
another as recommended by our Department of Agriculture. 

Studies made by the Brookings Institution show that 2.7 
million families (income under $1,000) averaged only $350 
per year for food, and that 4.7 million families (income 
from $1,000 to $1,500) averaged only $500 per year for 
food. The average per-family food budget, imputed and ac- 
tual, calculated by us on the basis of the food actually pro- 
duced, was over $900. Thus a wide variation in family food 
expenditure exists. 

A discrepancy appears between our total expenditure of 
$26,919 million and the Brookings total of $23,548 million, 
a difference of $3,371 million. This is probably due to: (i) 
beverages and confectionery eaten in drugstores, etc., and, 
together with the following items, doubtless not listed in the 



SUMMARY 215 

Brookings budget as "food" (2) meals consumed by travel- 
ing salesmen, business representatives, and pupils at schools; 
(3) repasts and banquets given by churches and other insti- 
tutions. Again, certain expenses of the wealthy — for instance, 
food and drink consumed in cabarets, clubs, etc. — were prob- 
ably listed in their budgets under "other expenses" and not 
under "food." The methodology of the N.S.P.P.C. precluded 
such omissions. Finally, the excess of exports over imports 
(consumer goods) is subtracted from the total production 
of all commodities in Column 6 (Flow-Sheet), and not from 
specific items. Exported food does not figure at all in the 
Brookings Institution's estimate. 

The great difference between the per-familv food expendi- 
ture in the low-income groups and the per-family expendi- 
tures in the high-income groups — as estimated by the Brook- 
ings Institution — is partly due to the fact that people in the 
low-income groups not only had to choose the cheaper foods 
but also had to buy bargain or "marked-down" foods. The 
bulk and nutritive value contained in a meal of, say, "hot 
dogs" and sauerkraut served on the kitchen table of a Harlem 
flat, will at least equal the bulk and calories of chicken a la 
king served at the Colony Club. Needless to sav, the market 
values of these two meals are in no wise comparable. 
"Marked-down" and "marked-up" food probably cancel out 
in Column 6 of our Flow-Sheet, thereby giving us a medium 
average price for each food item. Still, the fact remains that 
poor people consume the "marked-down" items, while the 
"marked-up" delicacies go to those who are better off. Also 
the food expenditures of the rich, when based on budget 
studies, probably include the nourishment consumed by their 
retainers, a fact which tends to falsify diet comparisons. 

Scarce goods — that is, delicacies such as rare imported 
wines and cigars, hot-house products, and similar goods — 
were carried over without alteration from our actual pro- 
duction and import lists to our budget. This does not affect 



2l6 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

the adoption by the whole people of the "liberal diet," the 
items of which can be provided by our resources and labor 
in the requisite quantities. 

Textiles and Clothing. The spread between actual 
production and budget need is but 14% for food, whereas 
for clothing it is nearly 100%. Considering textiles and cloth- 
ing together (clothing accounts for the major value of 
our textiles) we could have produced and used in 1929 about 
twice the quantity of goods we actually enjoyed. Measured 
by the retail dollar, just under ten billions dollars' worth of 
these essential goods were produced in that year, whereas 
just over twenty billions could have been produced with the 
existing equipment and labor force — goods which could have 
been used to the great advantage of the population. 

Raw materials for yarns, textiles, yardage goods, etc., are 
either domestically available in abundant quantities, as in the 
case of cotton and wood pulp for cotton goods and rayon; 
or could be domestically supplied in a short period, as in the 
case of wool, which would require three years of sheep breed- 
ing; or they could readily be imported in any desired quanti- 
ties, as in the case of silk. The capacity estimates do not 
exactly reflect the existing 1935 production potentialities. 
Cotton-fabric capacities, for instance, have dropped from 
20,074,000,000 square yards in 1927 to the present figure 
of 16,500,000,000 square yards. However, it seems reason- 
able to assume that "dismantled" plants and equipment could 
either be put back into operation or be replaced by new equip- 
ment, particularly in view of the 100% excess capacity found 
to exist in our machine-tool industry. 

However, considering the plant "as is," Table I clearly in- 
dicates that while the American people may prefer a system 
which enforces the practice of non-creating clothing (as well 
as the supplies required for most of their other needs and 



SUMMARY 2 1 7 

desires) they do not need to do without these goods because 
of any deficiency In productive ablhty. 

The budget figures In Table I are calculated for 57 mil- 
lion males and a like number of females. The 11,400,000 
Infants of both sexes under five years are not Included In this 
tabulation. They are, however, accounted for in Table XI, 
Appendix. 

The clothing budget, when expressed in dollars, Is decep- 
tive. The per-famlly allowance, some $540, seems Inordi- 
nately low for liberal living. This is due to the manner In 
which the budget figure was calculated. Studies were made 
which detailed the items, not the prices, of clothing pur- 
chased by families with incomes of six to seven thousand dol- 
lars per year. Obviously these wealthy families often bought 
custom-made or Imported — I.e., expensive — garments. We 
were not Interested in the expensiveness of such garments, 
often purchased at exorbitant prices in fashionable shops, 
but only In their itemization and quantity. Once these per 
family itemizations were obtained, we priced each garment 
at the average 1929 retail price — i.e., at prices paid by the 
average buyer In the average clothing store. This was a neces- 
sary procedure Inasmuch as custom-made, styled, imported 
— I.e., expensive — clothing could not be provided for the 
entire population, whereas their counterparts, in budgeted 
quantities, could be made by American industry. 

We were precluded by our Definition ^ (Foreword) from 
postulating an improvement In the quality of clothing or 
other goods and services. Only quantities were considered. 
Certainly the budgeted quantity of clothing — an increase of 
some 100% over the 1929 consumption — could not be worn 
threadbare by the average person. But no physical reason 
exists, as was suggested In the Foreword, why the new 
clothes could not be improved in quality as well as Increased 
in quantity, once the pressure to produce at the lowest possi- 
ble cost was removed. However, this possibility cannot be 



2l8 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Statistically demonstrated — ^i.e., reflected in higher retail 
prices per item. Consequently the Survey was precluded from 
marking up the prevailing prices, and the low estimate, based 
on 1929 retail value, resulted. 

Actually, good clothes could be produced, at a very slight 
increase in man-hours, as easily as shoddy clothes. A doubling 
of quality is as practical as a doubling of quantity. Good- 
quality machine-made clothing could be provided in the 
budgeted quantities plus custom-made clothes in quantities at 
least as great as those provided in 1929. An increase in the 
quantity of custom-made clothes would depend on the divert- 
ing of more skilled labor to their production. This would 
not seem to be practical or desirable. The machine today 
can probably produce as good clothes as the hand craftsman, 
if considerations pertaining to "conspicuous waste" be ex- 
cluded. 

If the clothing budget were fulfilled and the whole people 
as a result provided with adequate wardrobes, the decora- 
tive function of clothing would probably predominate over 
the protective function now primary for most of the popu- 
lation. Consequently such an eventuality might put great 
pressure on the designers of clothing to outdo their previous 
efforts. Fortunately, a machine can execute a design as ef- 
ficiently as a skilled craftsman. 

Reference to Column 6 of the Flow-Sheet and to Ap- 
pendix Tables X, XI, XII and XIII is suggested for those 
who are interested in detailed production, capacity, and 
budget figures. 

Our capacity estimates consider only the mechanical equip- 
ment of mills and the technical knowledge and skill of man- 
agement and workers. Such non-physical factors as season- 
ality of demand and the customary number of shifts are 
disregarded.^ Having assured ourselves of the availability of 

Mn cotton textile mills one shift is customary in the North, and two or 
more in the South. This difference is one of custom and is due, probably, to 
market considerations. 



SUMMARY 219 

Table I 

Major Clothing Items* 

(000,000 Omitted) 

1929 
Item Production Capacity Budget 

Men's and Boys' 

Suits 29.09 84.20 67.00 

Coats 9.27 26.60 27.91 

Shirts 17306 424.00 363-50 

Extra trousers 37-19 106.80 68.00 

Underwear 286.35 495 -oo 33^-°° 

Hosiery (pairs) 719.64 955 -08 759-5° 

Women's and Girls' 

Dresses and frocks 206.46 485.00 275.25 

Suits 14-50 38.11 34-41 

Coats 2304 63.30 36.25 

Hosiery (pairs) 614.52 1069.20 681.00 

Underwear 258.95 510.88 427 

Foundation garments 53-37 106.74 ^39-75 

Both sexes 

Shoes (pairs) 361.40 1550.00 394-25 

Sweaters 57-49 ,108.00 72-75 

Hats 253.51 507.02 281.50 

* Source: Appendix Table XII 

raw materials, our studies were determined mainly by four 
considerations : ( i ) the hourly product capacity of existing 
spindles and looms; (2) number of working shifts and the 
hours per shift which have been proven practical; (3) "time 
out," computed in hours and days, for the average spindle 
and loom; (4) availability of skilled personnel. 

Housing and Construction. We have considered the 
housing and construction industry — amounting in 1929 to 
25-1/3 billion dollars — in three main divisions: (i) hous- 
ing, (2) other construction, and (3) equipment, supplies, 
and services. We will consider housing first. 

Accounting in dollars for food and clothing, the spreads 
between actual production and our budget appears as 14% 
and 100%, respectively. In dwelling construction, this spread 
is not easily measured in dollars. Homes may be built to last 
many generations. Unlike the two preceding items, they can 
be considered as "capital goods," for they create real values 



220 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

every year they are occupied. The yearly addition to the na- 
tional monetary income from dwellings takes the form of ac- 
tual or imputed rent. 

To express the spread between the actual production of 
homes and our budgeted satisfiable need or desire for homes, 
we shall abandon the "dollar yardstick" and consider instead 
the dwellings themselves. 

The actual construction of dwellings in the period 1920 
to 1929, inclusive, averaged 450,000 yearly, w^iereas our 
studies of capacities in the construction and allied industries 
— beginning with raw materials and labor and ending with 
building hardware and house furnishings — clearly indicate an 
existing capacity sufficient to construct 1,500,000 new dwell- 
ing units yearly, besides providing material and labor — 
equivalent to the annual construction of 200,000 dwelling 
units — to maintain existing and proposed dwellings. The 
spread between what was actual and what would be possible 
is seen to be greater than 300%. 

Two-thirds of this million-and-a-half new dwellings which 
would annually become available to our people (were physi- 
cal restrictions the only consideration) would replace the 
present inadequate structures, and the remaining third would 
be allocated to house the normal increase in population. 
These homes would not need to be "jerry-built," flimsy af- 
fairs, constantly in need of repairs, uneconomical in heat 
consumption, cramped for space and otherwise undesirable, 
as are so many of our "development" structures. On the con- 
trary, they would be built to last indefinitely with only occa- 
sional repairs. 

Most of them (many different building materials were con- 
sidered) could be fireproof or fire-resisting. All could be well 
insulated and consequently economical to heat, designed for 
modern installations and labor-reducing household equip- 
ment, well planned for living comfort, and economical of 
repairs. With four to six rooms having a total of 1550 



SUMMARY 221 

square feet of floor area — a third larger than many previous 
"model" layouts — they could be built in a wide variety of 
architectural styles. Of either single or multiple type, each 
dwelling unit would have a bathroom and shower, an extra 
toilet and lavatory, central heating, mechanical refrigeration, 
laundry equipment, a garage — would, in fact, be up-to-date In 
every respect. 

It would take from five to ten years to house adequately 
that section of the population whose present living conditions 
are so deplorable. Assuming a population at the end of ten 
years of between thirty and thirty-five million families, pro- 
duction of homes could then be slowed down until homes 
would need to be built only at the replacement and normal 
population-growth rate of some 900,000 per year or less. 

This home-building and maintenance program would not 
restrict other necessary construction. The year of greatest 
activity was 1928. Office buildings, lofts, public edifices, and 
other constructions went forward at an unprecedented rate. 
Undoubtedly there would be no need to continue these types 
of construction at this rate. However, to be conservative, 
we predicated the continuance of this construction rate prior 
to laying out our home-building program. These two rates 
of construction could, according to our capacity studies, go 
on concurrently, although In practice they undoubtedly would 
not. Here again, our estimates allow a wide margin of 
safety.^ 

The housing budget, unlike the food and clothing budgets, 
does not attempt to give the market value of proper shelter 
for the American people. It estimates only: (i) the rent 
value of existing dwellings after suitable deductions for the 
rent value of such obsolete shelters as would be torn down 
under our demolition program; (2) the rent value of such 
new dwellings as could be provided in the first and second 

^The reader is referred to Tables I, II, III, of Chapter X, "Construc- 
tion." Also to Appendix Tables VIII and IX. 



222 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

years of released production ; and (3 ) the annual value of the 
needed consumer supplies — fuel, electricity, phone service, 
etc. 

Thus the four-billion-dollar increase of budgeted housing 
over the cost of 1929 housing, does not include the full value 
of the new homes but only their rent value. But this rent 
value increase continues to augment the national income as 
long as the houses last. Consequently the increase in the 
housing budget is cumulative in so far as it is derived from 
the construction of new homes. Since it would seem desirable 
to replace at least sixty per cent of the existing shelters with 
new houses, and since the rate of increase which capacity 
permits allows an increase of rent value of something over 
two billion dollars a year, the housing budget should con- 
tinue to increase for at least ten years, adding eventually 
some twenty billion dollars to the national income. 

Of course any such estimate is low. Not only does it ex- 
clude the production of houses more elaborate than those 
budgeted, but also it leaves out the supplementary increased 
values which would accrue from the general renovation of 
the countryside. 

Home equipment has become, to contemporary man, 
nearly as important as shelter itself. Large unused capacities 
exist in the industries which supply the various items. Heat- 
ing and lighting equipment, outdoor and miscellaneous tools, 
cooking equipment, accessories and utensils, laundry equip- 
ment, house furnishings and furniture, telephones and other 
services — all these could be provided in desired quantities. 

While we have large facilities for supplying manufac- 
tured ice, the mechanical domestic refrigerator, which could 
be gradually installed in all homes were physical factors the 
only limitation on production, would largely end the need 
for the production of ice for home use. 

Most fuels — whether natural or manufactured gas, fuel 
oil, anthracite or bituminous coal, or heat produced by elec- 



SUMMARY 223 

tricity (except by water power) — are non-recurrent and 
therefore should be conserved. Available supplies are never- 
theless ample for our needs, and better insulated homes 
equipped with central-heating plants as proposed in the 
building budget, would materially reduce fuel con- 
sumption. 

Food and clothing have been sufficient, during intervals 
in the past, to nourish our people and to maintain bodily 
warmth in the great majority of our population. But in the 
less contiguous item of housing, we observe the effect of 
inadequate purchasing power reflected in squalid congested 
slums and cold-water flats; in the absence of sanitary plumb- 
ing; in the ubiquity of cardboard "development" houses, 
and unaesthetic eyesores which clutter the countryside. Ap- 
petizing food, decorative clothing, ten-tube radio sets — even 
good manners — would seem to require the background of 
a comfortable, attractive, and well-built home. 

Transportation and Communication. Today, more 
than ever before in history, man is dependent upon trans- 
portation. Coincidently, the need for communication has 
arisen. On these two items alone we spent, in 1929, nearly 
twelve and one-half billion dollars — $11,291,334,000 and 
$1,032,856 on transportation and communication, respec- 
tively. 

Ample mechanical means are available for the transporta- 
tion of goods, for recreational travel, and for communica- 
tions. Our transportation budget represents an approximate 
three-billion-dollar increase over the 1929 expenditure; that 
of telephones, telegrams, cables, and post office about 200 
million. Physical capacities in all branches of communication 
allow for any foreseeable increases. However, owing to the 
impossibility of even approximately determining the effect 
of increased production of goods and services upon business 
communications, we carried over without increase the 1929 



224 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

figures for the items of telegraphs, cables, and post office. 
In domestic telephones, a 200-million-dollar increase was 
allowed. 

Recreational travel, as well as travel for business, need 
not be curtailed because of any lack in transportation facili- 
ties or the capacity to produce these facilities. While only a 
million and a half passenger automobiles were produced in 
1932, over five and one-half million and an additional mil- 
lion trucks, could have been produced not only in that year 
but in previous and succeeding years. The gasoline and oil 
with which to run them could also have been supplied, as 
well as tires and other accessories. 

Road space, especially that adjacent to cities, would seem 
to be the first limitation on the multiplication of automo- 
biles. Since equipment, material, and labor could be turned 
into needed highways, this lack presents no serious difficulty. 
In 1929, three-quarters of our American families owned and 
operated a car and seemed to get about without undue dis- 
comfort. 

Travel on railroads was at a peak in 1920, but the per- 
fection of the automobile has greatly lowered our railroad 
passenger-mile performance and requirements. Without add- 
ing an extra coach or run to existing trains and schedules, 
we could travel one hundred billion passenger-miles on our 
railroad trains. This rate of travel is twice that of the peak 
demand in 1920. Due to the automobile, this peak demand 
will probably never again be approached. For this reason, we 
budgeted for this item of transportation only a 50% increase 
over 1929. 

The transportation budget is based on two assumptions: 
(a) that railroad and steamboat passenger travel would in- 
crease by not more than fifty per cent even though the people 
were provided with the means of utilizing our transportation 
system as much as they desired within the limitations of physi- 
cal carrying capacity; and (b) that motor cars to the limit 



SUMMARY 225 

of the present capacity (one-shift operation) of the automo- 
tive plants would be acceptable to the people. 

These ^.6 million possible new cars a year might not be 
deemed sufficient. Such an annual production would make 
it possible to provide every family with a car in a few years. 
But more cars could easily be made by operating factories 
at two shifts. This possibility was not considered owing to the 
necessity of replanning cities and expanding the gasoline re- 
fineries. Both of these undertakings lie outside the limitation 
of our definition. 

For these reasons the increase in transportation consequent 
on releasing production from the restraints of present effec- 
tive demand was conservatively budgeted at only four billion 
dollars. 

In 1932, motor-bus travel accounted for 17% of the 
total passenger-miles made by all common carriers. 
However, from the point of view of comfort, they leave 
much to be desired in long-distance travel. Also their load- 
factor is low and their depreciation rate, 27% per year, is 
high. With ample railroad passenger-miles available, and 
pecuniary considerations ruled out, most people would no 
doubt elect to travel long distances by train. Bus travel, how- 
ever, under the existing institutional set-up, costs fewer dol- 
lars per mile. 

Inter-urban railways are on the decline. Thirty per cent 
of the 1932 track mileage has been abandoned. Subways, ele- 
vated railroads, surface cars, and ferries, though often in- 
adequate in capacity, owing to the habit of concentrating 
travel during certain peak hours, nevertheless, succeed in 
carrying the loads to which they are subjected. Furthermore, 
the expedient of "staggered" office and factory hours, if 
generally adopted, would distribute the loads over a longer 
time period. '^j 

Freight-haulage facilities, even when not considered from 
the angle of integrated agencies, are adequate to meet the 



226 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

needs of the budget. Care was exercised to consider ton-miles 
with reference to the various types of freight and the car- 
riers customarily engaged in hauHng each type. For instance, 
ton-mile box-car capacity indicates no ability to carry oil or 
coal. Inland waterways and coastwise shipping carry only 
certain kinds of freight. 

The capacity of these last named agencies for hauling pe- 
troleum and coal is some 40% greater than the 1929 de- 
mand, and, for merchandise and manufactured tonnage, is 
some 400% greater. Pipe lines serve single industries in 
highly localized areas, and have an annual capacity of about 
800 million barrels. The railroads, however, carry a greater 
proportion of petroleum products than do the pipe lines, 
and coastwise shipping carries about half as much. 

The present railroad rolling stock has a carrying capacity 
about 50% greater than the greatest previous demand, and 
furthermore, the productive capacity of railroad-equipment 
makers is sufficient to replace 20% of the existing roUing 
stock in one year. Roadway and track maintenance capacity 
is four times greater than the record demand. Locomotive 
plants now in operation have produced 3600 units of all types 
in one year. A single year's capacity production of locomo- 
tives would give us sufficient tractive power to haul freight 
600 billion ton-miles — which is the capacity of our rolling 
stock. And a 25% increase each year over 1929 capacity 
could thereafter be maintained. These capacities are so far 
ahead of any conceivable demand that a shortage of trans- 
portation facilities due to greatly increased industrial activi- 
ties is not to be expected. 

Postal, cable, telegraph, and telephone facilities have 
been given an "indefinite" capacity rating. Being services, 
they depend in the main upon organization and personnel. 
While elaborate equipment is essential, this equipment and 
the materials that go into it come from a variety of indus- 



SUMMARY 227 

tries in all of which the facilities are ample. Both Postal 
and Western Union report that in 1929 they could have han- 
dled twice the number of messages they actually did transmit. 
Likewise, it may safely be assumed that our Post Office over 
the yearly period could handle any probable increase in mail. 
This is demonstrated by the peak load carried during the 
Christmas holidays. 

Personal. Under this heading are listed such items as 
cigars and cigarettes, notions, writing material, barbering, 
mortuary, etc. — a 1929 production total (retail) of about 
seven billion dollars. In the light of needs and desires, no 
limitations on production were discoverable. The supply of 
tobacco could be greatly expanded as well as that of the 
other items. 

Personal supplies, like recreational facilities, are subject 
to nearly unlimited expansion assuming physical factors to 
be the only limitation on production. Owing to the difficulty 
of presenting this possibility in statistical form, we limited 
the expansion to the budgeted 2 million Increase. 

In the real world the abolition of poverty might result in 
a terrific boom in cosmetics, etc. Though the increase in the 
physical supply of such adjuncts to living could be easily 
effected, its translation into values is another matter. At 
present the cost of cosmetics largely consists of selling ex- 
penses. If cosmetics were made abundant, would dropping 
their price increase their consumption or would the arrest of 
selling pressure decrease their consumption? The problem 
would seem to be outside the province of the statistician. 

Recreation. In 1929, some seven billion dollars were 
spent on amusements and leisure-time activities, of which 
sum two billions was spent in the movies, two-thirds of a bil- 
lion on the radio, about a quarter of a billion each on com- 



228 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

mercialized contests (baseball, football, boxing, hockey, 
etc.), and amusements (circuses, fairs, resorts, amusement 
parks, etc.), and the legitimate theater and vaudeville. 

The balance of these seven billions of dollars was spent 
in more individualized activities such as golf (four hundred 
million), foreign travel (nine hundred million), musical 
instruments and opera (three hundred million), and camp- 
ing, recreation farms, and "dude" ranches (a quarter of a 
billion). 

As far more was spent on the movies than upon any other 
single item of recreation, it is of interest to note that even 
in 1930, the peak year of movie attendance, we availed our- 
selves of only one-half the number of seats that our moving 
picture houses, on a three-shows-per-day basis, could have 
supplied. Vendibility was found to be the limitation on the 
production of radio sets and In supplies for non-vicarious 
recreational activities, such as golf, camping, fishing, and 
games in which the consumer personally takes part. 

In our budget estimates, we allowed for a six-billion-dol- 
lar expansion, or a total recreational budget of some twelve 
billion dollars. This figure was set not because of any definite 
limitation on the expansion of our leisure-time recreational 
possibilities, but because desires In this field are difficult to 
predict. Were twelve to twenty million full-time vacationists, 
now without pay, to be supplanted by a total population en- 
joying regular vacations with pay, spare-time activities would 
certainly be altered. An increase of nearly 100% over 1929 
expenditures seemed adequate as a beginning. 

The facilities for recreation are practically unlimited. 
Certain items of recreation such as foreign travel could not 
be Increased beyond the 1929 rate without providing a mone- 
tary equivalent in exports. Others depend merely upon peo- 
ple having leisure and sufficient spending power to provide 
themselves with food, clothing, and shelter. We have assumed 
a large increase in the latter categories and no increase, or 



SUMMARY 229 

only the increase made possible by the physical equipment, in 
the former categories. 

Savings. Monetary savings Is a subject pertaining largely 
to finance and as such is not especially relevant to this study. 
From the angle of the real world of physical events and oc- 
currences, we may divide savings into two general categories 
with respect to the individual (or group) doing the saving. 
Monetary saving from this point of view becomes either (a) 
a deferring of consumption or (b) a diverting of consump- 
tion, (a) Is known as "hoarding," and has largely fallen 
into disfavor; (b) is generally practiced and consists in giv- 
ing some other person or group (a bank or a business cor- 
poration) some fraction of one's personal "call" on goods 
and services. 

The immediate effect of this procedure is that some per- 
son or group other than one's self spends for goods and 
services the money so received. The deferred effect (sup- 
posed) of this vicarious method of spending — which, un- 
fortunately for many, is becoming increasingly theoretical 
— is that eventually, at some future date, the favor will be 
returned — I.e., the borrower will refrain from using a por- 
tion of his own purchasing power in favor of the lender who 
now may spend what he originally had plus an increase (In- 
terest). 

For the purpose of this Survey, "savings" (Column 6, 
Flow-Sheet) were calculated by subtracting "premiums" 
(money paid out) from the total life-insurance payments 
(1929) and adding the increase of savings in all banks.-"- It 
happened that savings decreased In 1929, and therefore the 
amount of this decrease had to be subtracted from life-in- 
surance payments less premiums, as shown in Table II. 

^Building loans might have been included. Such equities largely lost their 
value, but probably later than the date (1929) of making out income re- 
turns. 



230 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Table II 

Savings (1929) 

Life-insurance payments ^3,275,000,000 

Premiums paid out (subtraction) i ,962,000,000 

Total ^i ,313,000,000 

Decrease in savings-bank deposits (subtraction). . . 195,000,000 

Total |i, 118,000,000* 

* For discussion of the non-inclusion of other so-called savings (investments, 
etc.) see page 103, "The Chart of Plenty," Viking Press, 1935. 



Health. In 1929, about three and one-quarter billions 
of dollars were spent on health — an average of $26 per per- 
son. A sum just over five billions — $42 per person — was 
budgeted as the amount needed to care adequately for the 
physical well-being of the people. No increase in this amount 
need be expected. On the contrary, were preventive therapeu- 
tics practiced — as they probably would be if care for the 
individual's health were assumed by society — the rate of im- 
provement in public health would probably reduce the cost. 

Today many doctors and nurses are either disemployed 
or only partially employed, while a few are overworked. The 
Milbank Memorial Fund^ estimates that the existing medi- 
cal personnel, if fully employed, is ample to care for the 
health of the population. 

A tremendous increase in mental disorders has been noted 
in recent years. It is not unreasonable to suppose that a de- 
crease in economic insecurity, due to releasing production, 
would show a decrease in such ailments. In any case, our 
facilities, including drugs and medical supplies, are ample 
(or could quickly be made ample) for the proper care of 
those in need of hospitalization. 

The budget, derived from the intensive studies of medi- 
cal associations, covers the cost of caring adequately for the 
total population. Consequently it does not include those 

^ Quarterly Bulletin, April, 1933. 



SUMMARY 231 

special services of a theraputlc nature which a small upper- 
income group enjoyed in 1929. No physical factor prevents 
this group continuing to enjoy such special services. Conse- 
quently the estimate of the Survey may be considered ultra- 
conservative in this service category. 

Education. Education is a most important activity, yet 
It suffers from neglect. In the so-called "prosperous" days 
of 1929, 3.7 billions of dollars was spent upon education and 
some thirty million pupils were enrolled in educational in- 
stitutions. An outlay of but $123 per pupil would seem in- 
sufficient to provide adequately for educational needs. Our 
budget requirements call for a total annual education bill of 
12.6 billions — a huge increase over our present expenditures. 

The Flow-Sheet shows only the cost of private education 
— 1.4 billions — for the reason that public education Is paid 
for largely out of real-estate and other taxes, and so appears 
in Column 6 as largely as rents. 

A few figures on the disaster in education caused by the 
present economic crisis follow : public-school enrollment 
( 1933) was nearly a million larger than In 1930, yet 15,000 
teachers had been dropped and the expenditure per child per 
school day had fallen from sixty-three cents to forty-nine 
cents. Building expenditures dropped from 400 million to 
154 million. There are 450 thousand rural teachers In the 
country and half of them receive less than $750 yearly, 
while 90 thousand receive less than $450. In April, 1934, 
20,300 schools were closed, cutting off the educational op- 
portunities for over a million children. Today over 200 thou- 
sand certified teachers are unemployed. 

Educational requirements are a matter of judgment and 
not of measurement. The large Increase in personnel recom- 
mended by our advisers at Teachers College, Columbia Uni- 
versity, could easily be provided if the productivity of the 
country were released. This Is due to the fact that there is 



232 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

no lack of individuals desiring to teach and capable of being 
trained to teach. Consequently an expansion of the teaching 
forces depends primarily on the nation's ability to support 
the increased staff. Since the nation is well able to provide 
food, clothing, shelter, etc., for the projected staff, the prob- 
lem resolves itself into one of time. How long would it take 
to train and organize such an augmented staff? It would 
seem that this might not be 100% accomplished in the first 
year. 

Ample equipment and supplies can be provided. The con- 
struction budget calls for a construction rate for all buildings 
other than dwellings equal to that of 1929. Such a rate would 
shortly provide the needed buildings, particularly were the 
construction of offices and lofts, which we now have in ample 
supply, curtailed in favor of educational buildings. The edu- 
cation budget would be particularly needed by a society which 
chose to avail itself of the leisure and income which modern 
technology and high energy conversion make possible. There 
is much to learn in the modern world and many adaptations 
to make in conditioning the national consciousness away from 
the concepts and practices enforced by scarcity, and toward 
the new ideology and opportunities which abundance would 
make possible. 

Taxes. In 1929, direct taxes amounted to $1,420,793,- 
000. Presumably under any economic set-up, the nation will 
direct a part of its production to martial and civic purposes, 
as well as to the maintenance of its public servants. It is be- 
yond the scope of this study to either predict or estimate the 
characteristics of a social order which utilized its produc- 
tive facilities to provide the budgeted standard of life. For 
this reason we have carried over to the budget the 1929 tax 
figures unchanged. 

It is permissible to observe, however, that such commodi- 



SUMMARY 233 

ties and services as would be needed for martial and civic 
purposes could be provided with greater ease were the exist- 
ing brakes on our production removed. 

Social and Civil Services. Services, whatever their na- 
ture, expand and contract in direct relationship to effective 
demand. To assign a top limit, a capacity, is obviously im- 
possible. Because of a counteracting or balancing-out effect 
that might occur were effective demand to be materially in- 
creased, we have carried the 1929 cost of social and civil 
services over to the budget unchanged. 

Even in the allegedly prosperous days of 1929, some 40% 
of our population lived at an expenditure level below that 
of health and decency. Obviously, were these unfortunates 
to receive a materially increased purchasing power, social 
activities would show a marked rise. However, certain other 
services — charitable and relief organizations, for instance 
— would either be entirely eliminated or drastically reduced. 
Crime prevention and detection agencies in particular would 
be run with a greatly reduced personnel. 

Because of the unpredictable nature of social and civil 
services, and in particular because of the balancing tendencies 
just described, we have made no provision in our budget for 
costs greater than the 1929 expenditures. 

Labor. In the preceding pages, a discussion of the labor 
situation for each department of national production was 
not made. For the purposes of a summary, labor can best be 
envisaged as a whole. 

On page 201 is given a breakdown of labor by industries 
for (i) actual 1929 production and (2) the labor force 
needed to accomplish our budgeted production. This table 
shows that ( i ) in 1929, 45.8 million persons were employed 
in the industries, professions, and other services, and that 



234 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

( 2 ) an increase to 5 i .4 million persons would be needed. We 
have conservatively estimated the number of available work- 
ers in all fields at 52.3 millions. 

These figures, however, must be accepted only in their 
broadest aspect, namely that of showing the central fact that 
no foreseeable labor shortage due to budgeted production 
need be anticipated. 

Several factors would affect favorably the labor supply 
were our budgeted production to be undertaken: 

First, obsolescence in equipment, production technique, 
and management would tend to disappear. Increased output 
weeds out obsolescence. A material reduction in Kmh^ per 
unit of production could be confidently expected. 

Second, a material increase in the national standard of life 
would tend to release for productive effort a great number 
of people. 

Economic security, diminished frustration of material de- 
sires, increased educational and cultural opportunities, in- 
creased leisure, better health, decreased crime — these and 
other social benefits might be expected to materially increase 
the 52.3 millions of available persons in our estimate. 

Third, skilled and unskilled foreign labor would clamor 
for admittance at the nation's gates. Under such conditions, 
needed foreign labor could be supported by the goods and 
services thus created. 

Felix J. Frazer 

^ Kmh stands for kilo-man-hours, or one thousand man-hours. 



CHAPTER XIX 

CONCLUSION 

The findings of the Survey can best be grouped under 
three heads : (a) production, (b) capacity, and (c) budget. 

Little need be said about production. Goods and services 
valued at $96,552,894,000 were produced in 1929, the year 
of maximum production. These include not only the goods 
and services produced for sale, but also food produced and 
consumed on farms, valued at $1,719,000,000, and the 
imputed rent on owned homes, valued at $6,861,000,000. 
In order to discover what goods and services were consumed 
in 1929 two deductions, (x) and (y), must be made, as fol- 
lows: 

Goods and services produced ^96,552,894,000 

(x) Increase in inventory in 1929 1,500,000,000 

(y) Excess of exports over imports not included in the Flow- 
Sheet before Column VI i , 135,000,000 

Goods and services produced and consumed ^93,917,894,000 

This sum, divided by the number of average families (of 
4.12 persons) in the United States in 1929, gives an average 
family buying power of $3238. However, this sum throws 
little light on the living standard of the American people. 
Owing to the uneven distribution of income, some 19.5 
million families had less than $2500 per year, and some 11.65 
million families had less than $1500 per year. In general it 
can be stated that in 1929, 40% of our people had incomes 
which provided a living beneath the accepted level of health 
and decency, and another 40% existed close to poverty. Only 
some 9% possessed over $5000 per year, and 2.3% possessed 
$10,000 per year or more.^ 

^ "America's Capacity to Consume," p. 54, Brookings Institution, Wash- 
ington, D. C. 

235 



236 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Regardless of how the goods and services produced and 
consumed in 1929 might have been divided, the people would 
nevertheless have been poor. 

Capacity. It was realized, as our study got under way, 
that the concept of "capacity production" does not apply to 
an economy as a whole, but only to specific plants. Four main 
factors are involved in every capacity estimate : ( i ) sup- 
plies, (2) knowledge, (3) man-power, and (4) equipment. 
Supplies depend largely on natural resources and on knowl- 
edge. Owing to the continual advance in knowledge, it is 
difficult to determine even the extent of our natural resources. 
Iron is now extracted from certain ores existing largely in 
the Lake Superior region. When these give out other iron 
ores will be processed which for pecuniary reasons are not 
now exploitable. Obviously, knowledge — in this case metal- 
lurgy — is one of the basic factors which must be considered 
before the available supply of iron ore can be accurately esti- 
mated. However, accepting the limitations of existing knowl- 
edge — that is to say, postulating no improvements in 
technological methods, the natural resources of the United 
States were found to be more than ample to sustain the stand- 
ard of life suggested by the budget. 

A definite estimate of available man-power is also impossi- 
ble. By limiting man-power to those individuals listed in the 
census as gainfully employed, over 52 million workers were 
found to be available. This number is sufficient to provide 
the budgeted quantity of goods and services even if we ex- 
clude the certainty that certain man-hour wastes, such as 
those involved in competitive selling, would be abolished if 
effective demand were able to command the production of 
desired providable goods. 

Equipment (existing plant) has a determinable capacity in 
most cases. The capacity of any particular shoe factory is 
determinable if ample supplies (leather, etc.) and ample 



CONCLUSION 237 

labor are assumed. The productive capacity of a drove of 
hogs, however, is not relevant information. If left to their 
own devices and supplied with sufficient food, their progeny 
will increase In geometric progression until their numbers 
leave the realm of the practical and the desirable. 

By accepting Definition b^ which excluded an advance 
in technology, or replacement of obsolete equipment, prac- 
tical capacities were determined in all branches of industry 
excepting agriculture and the supplying of certain raw ma- 
terials. Then these practical capacities were used as a limit 
against which to check budget requirements. Finally the 
budget was checked against available labor. Consequently 
the capacity estimates, given separately on the worksheets, 
were pertinent only as a first check against budgeted pro- 
duction. 

The available labor force, though capable of providing 
the budgeted goods and services, could not operate the ex- 
isting plant at Its rated capacity. Consequently any totaling of 
capacities would have no significance, and the possibility of 
operating the whole plant at capacity was not considered. 
Since the operation of the whole plant at capacity would 
provide a plethora of unwanted goods, this limitation is not 
Important to society. 

Budget. The budgeted production can be accomplished 
with the existing plant by utilizing the available labor and 
managerial force to process the supplies that could be made 
available. Obviously the budgeted production of any one 
item can be exceeded. We budgeted some six million motor 
cars a year. Ten million could easily be turned out by divert- 
ing more steel, more labor, and more time (a double shift) 
to the production of motor cars. However, if we postulated 
a ten-per-cent increase over budget in every good and service, 
we would run into shortages of both supplies and labor. 
These could in most cases be made up by using a more ad- 



238 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

vanced technology. Since the Survey, in order to be irrefuta- 
ble, accepted the limitation of basing its capacity estimates 
on the productivity of the existing plant, the budget repre- 
sents under our definition, a minimum estimate of practical 
capacity. 

The budget totals $135,516,000,000, an increase of some 
42 biUion dollars, over the actual production of 1929, The 
goods and services represented by this 42 billion dollars con- 
sist of desired goods and service which the people of the 
United States could produce but do not produce. It meas- 
ures lost or uncreated wealth. 

To discover the cost of our practice of not producing de- 
sired goods and services during the years 1929 to 1933 in- 
clusive, the national income of the years subsequent to 1929 
may be translated into 1929 dollars, as in Table I. 

Table I 

Statement of Losses to the American People 

(in billions of 1929 dollars) 

National Annual Loss 

Year Budget* Income! to Consumer 

1929 135 93 42 

1930 137 86 51 

1931 138 79 59 

1932 139 69 70 

1933 141 76 65 

Total Loss to Consumer (i 929-1 933) 287 

* The budget would increase as durable consumer goods were added to the 
national stock. The above estimate includes in this category only the rent value 
of new residences. 

t Including imputed income. 

It is obvious that this period represents an orgy of ex- 
travagance probably without precedent in the history of the 
world. Owing to one taboo or another, people have prac- 
ticed non-production since the beginning of human institu- 
tions, but it is unlikely that the record of the United States 
in 1929-1933 has ever been remotely approached. 

The question arises why goods and services worth 69 bil- 
lion were produced, for instance, in 1932 — the year of maxi- 



CONCLUSION 239 

mum non-production — when the existing resources, man- 
power, equipment, and technology could have provided some 
70 billion dollars more of goods and services, a quantity 
which would have satisfied the needs and reasonable wants 
of the population. 

The Chart may indicate the nature of the "arrest" or "ta- 
boo" which causes our management to operate plants at 
some small percentage of capacity and to disemploy able- 
bodied men. 

The sections beneath the heavy black line represent the 
national income. Column A is the monetary equivalent of 
the goods and services produced and consumed (approxi- 
mately). These desired goods and services make up what is 
known as wealth and pertain to the physical objective world. 
Column B is the national monetary income represented as the 
aggregate of payments (wages, profits, interest, rent, pen- 
sions, etc.). It is purely an institutional matter and is the 
result of our way of doing things. 

Column B governs Column A. In the contemporary West- 
ern World all but a minute fraction of real wealth (goods and 
services) is produced only when called for by dollars (token 
wealth) . A convention governs and restricts a reality. 

Restrictions on production of this character are not un- 
usual. When practiced by so-called primitive tribes, they are 
known as a "taboo." For example on an island off Sumatra 
no work may be done in the fields when the priest's house 
is being built. Consequently the natives cannot keep cattle or 
cultivate rice since both need uninterrupted labor. As a re- 
sult, these particular tribes maintain themselves in an artifi- 
cial poverty. 

It would seem that the practice of non-production, due 
in the Western World to the habit of producing goods only 
at the rate at which they can be exchanged for token wealth, 
is endured largely because its disastrous effect is not recog- 
nized. Production has been regulated by money income for 



240 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 



COMPARISON OF 

BUDGET WITH NATIONAL 

POTENTIAL REAL I NCOME I NCOM E 

1932 

IN MILLIONS OF 1929 DOLLARS 



MONETARY 
EQUIVALENT OF 
DESIRED GOODS 
AND SERVICES 
l/VHICH COULD 
HAVE BEEN 
PRODUCED 
BUT WERE NOT 




BUDGET 135.000 



MONETARY 
EQUIVALENT OF 
GOODS AND 
SERVICES 
PRODUCED IN 
1932 



69.000 



r 



NATIONAL 
INCOME 



23,544 



42.761 



PROPERTY AND 

ENTREPRENEURIAL 

INCOME 



SALARIES AND WAGES 



'////////A IMPUTED INCOME 



A B 



CONCLUSION 241 

SO long a time that society has become accustomed to thus 
regulating production and accepts this procedure as part of 
the natural order of things. 

It is defended, when called into question, by reference to 
the basic postulate of the open-market system. According to 
this postulate, when buying power falls short of commanding 
a desirable and possible production of commodities, the com- 
petitive nature of our enterprise compels a reduction in prices. 
The price drop then is supposed to restore the equality be- 
tween buying power and production, so that the former will 
be able to command the latter. 

What is not recognized, at least generally, is that con- 
temporary business practice has been employing ways and 
means of arresting the free play of price. This has been oc- 
curring to an increasing extent for quite 100 years in the 
sphere of heavy and monopolistic industry. In 1932 the 
United States Government, recognizing the unfairness of 
permitting certain branches of industry to restrict production 
in order to maintain prices, while other branches, in par- 
ticular, agriculture, were still subject to the full effects of 
the free and open market, intervened to correct the injus- 
tice. A government agency made it possible for nearly 
all industry, through associations, to restrict production and 
thereby to control price, and another agency, by direct gov- 
ernment intervention, performed the same service for the 
farmers. Consequently the free play of price, at least 
in a downward direction, was arrested In practically all 
the leading branches of trade. This would seem to mean 
that the American people had established a device for arti- 
ficially perpetuating the differential between buying power 
and product capacity — for stabilizing, In other words, In- 
flexible prices, limited profits, and general poverty. 

The automatic regulatory device of the open market has 
been substantially abohshed. Instead of the open market, 
we have for practical purposes a closed market. Instead of 



242 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

product capacity limiting our wealth, we permit dollar in- 
come, limited as described above, to regulate the production 
of desired goods and services. 

Of course the fixing of prices is not intended to perpetuate 
poverty. On the contrary it is designed to restore prosperity. 
With certain charges (interest on debt, etc.) fixed, and others 
free, a general price drop is disastrous to the enterpriser. It 
is thought desirable to save the enterpriser. It is not realized 
that saving the enterpriser by this device costs the people 
the value of desired goods which are not produced — goods 
and services worth 287 billion 1929 dollars, 1929-33 inclu- 
sive. The cost of saving the enterpriser would seem exorbi- 
tant. 

Furthermore, restoring the open market would not set 
matters right. Let us assume that the governmental regu- 
lating agencies are modified, the anti-trust laws enforced, 
and free competition restored in all lines of industry. Prices 
would rapidly be forced down below costs since available sup- 
plies would, in nearly all cases, exceed the effective demand. 
Every industry operating on borrowed money would be bank- 
rupted by its inability to meet its fixed charges. Let us suppose 
that American enterprise should recover from this shock and 
that the new owners would start off again, with clean finan- 
cial slates. 

Prices would have fallen presumably to somewhere be- 
tween one half and one quarter of their former height. But 
with labor treated as a commodity, wages would also have 
fallen. Consequently buying power would still be inadequate 
and profit, with the open market functioning, unrealizable. 
There would seem to be no point in the downward spiral at 
which buying power could be expected to command an ade- 
quate production of goods and services. Deflation and the 
restoration of the open market, which are measures suggested 
by the more orthodox economists, would seem as futile and 



CONCLUSION 243 

even more cataclysmic than the present attempt to restore 
wealth by producing less of it. 

It may be that the reason the open-market system has been 
discarded is due to the fact that fundamental conditions have 
changed. So long as the great majority of commodities could 
not, in the nature of things, be provided in quantities suf- 
ficient to satisfy the needs and wants of a total population, 
any temporary glut in any commodity or group of commodi- 
ties could be corrected by transferring energy from the pro- 
duction of the plentiful commodities to the production of 
other commodities whose supply was still insufficient. Now 
that we are equipped to produce the great majority of com- 
modities in desired quantities, no outlet^ exists into which the 
man-power not required for the production of the potentially, 
plentiful goods can be directed.^ 

In this situation a nation equipped to produce goods and 
services along modern technological lines can either (a) 
create an artificial scarcity by restricting production and 
thereby maintain prices, profits and poverty;^ or (b) such 
a nation can create an unprecedented plenty by putting its 
idle men and more or less idle equipment to work produc- 
ing goods and services for its own citizens. 

To accept the latter alternative would require several 
drastic changes in the existing economic system. First of all 
the commodity theory of labor would have to be discarded. 

Today goods and services cannot be distributed in quanti- 
ties greater than those commanded by the aggregate of in- 

* Air-conditioned houses and other similar improvements cannot be pro- 
duced for the use of our citizens when they have not sufficient buying power 
fully to utilize the existing living facilities. 

^ Obviously the United States could turn its surplus energy to equipping a 
slice of Africa with factories, refineries, skyscrapers, sewers, etc. But what 
it would take in return for this diversion of energy is obscure. War is prob- 
ably the only adequate outlet for our unused product capacity, under the 
open-market system. 

^ This policy requires governmental cooperation sometimes of a forceful 
nature. When military force is enlisted to preserve the status quo the result- 
ing economic-political set-up is sometimes known as Fascism. 



244 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

dividual incomes. The incomes of some 80% of our popu- 
lation consist largely of wages. Wages are the flexible factor 
in costs. Under the existing competitive system every em- 
ployer is compelled, under penalty of bankruptcy, to keep 
costs to a minimum. 

This compulsion, inherent in the existing system, forces 
every employer to hold the dollar wage of his employees 
down to a minimum and to reduce the number of his em- 
ployees whenever possible. Since prices are not permitted to 
fall beneath a certain level, reducing the wage bill reduces 
also the buying power of the wage receiver. A lowered buy- 
ing power on the part of the majority of the population re- 
duces the consumption of goods. Reducing the consumption 
of goods reduces the profits of the enterpriser.^ The net result 
is a reduction in the national income. Thus, with the price 
range fixed, technological improvements (i.e., reduction of 
man-hours per item) result in a lowered buying power, a 
smaller production of desired goods, and an increased desti- 
tution. 

Despite the various forces working in an opposite direc- 
tion, the compulsion to lower wages has enforced a standard 
of living only a little above the subsistence level for the ma- 
jority of our citizens. It would seem, both on theoretical 
grounds and from empirical observation, that this compul- 
sion to reduce the buying power of the non-property-own- 
ing citizen cannot be effectively counteracted within the frame 
of the existing system.^ If this be so, our people cannot hope 
to enjoy the adequate quota of goods and services which the 
resources, man-power, equipment and knowledge of society 
can handily provide, unless the compulsion to reduce wage 
costs, now operative among all enterprisers, be abolished. 

^ A lowered wage bill in practice is often not translated into greater profits. 
With prices fixed, a lowered wage bill usually results in a reduced rate of 
production, which nullifies the increased profit per item. 

' For a fuller discussion of this point see the concluding chapter of "The 
Chart of Plenty," Viking Press, 1935. 



CONCLUSION 245 

If it were abolished, wages or the return for effort could be 
based on the goods and services which can be provided, in- 
stead of the present situation in which the production of 
goods and services is governed by a grossly inadequate na- 
tional Income largely consisting of wages. 

Though it is somewhat outside the scope of a statistical 
survey to consider a problem In theoretical economics, It may 
not be out of place to suggest that in order to create a buying 
power commensurate with society's ability to produce and 
need to consume, would require : 

First, that goods and services be divided Into two classes : 
those which can be provided in desired quantities, and those 
intrinsically scarce (which need not be further considered 
since the open market still fosters their increased produc- 
tion^). 

Second, that the prices of the former be fixed — at any price 
level — and totaled. 

Third, that the total price (budgeted quantities multiplied 
by unit prices), translated into monetary terms, be issued 
to the prospective consumers to be canceled when exchanged 
for goods and services. 

Fourth, that the Industries concerned with producing and 
distributing these potentially plentiful goods be centrally con- 
trolled so that the budgeted quantity of goods (subject of 
course, to unforeseeable variations in consumer demands) 
shall be produced. 

Such a solution is in line with western tradition. In the 
past centuries making war, keeping the peace, instructing the 
young, transmitting communications, maintaining highways, 
and delivering water have been successively removed from the 

^ The supply of goods intrinsically scarce is by definition less than the de- 
mand. Consequently their price does not tend to drop below the cost of pro- 
duction and their increase, so long as they are desired, is fostered by the 
normal "higgling of the market." The traditional open-market system would 
seem satisfactory — at least no better system is apparent — for handling the 
production and distribution of goods intrinsically scarce. 



246 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

open market — the sphere of private enterprise — and oper- 
ated as public services. To illustrate the desirability of ex- 
tending the scope of public control over the remaining 
utilities, including the production and the distribution of 
goods and services which, by means of modern technology, 
can today be provided in desired quantities, the case of water 
may be cited. 

To distribute water requires labor, supplies, equipment, 
and knowledge. If it were judged advisable to return the dis- 
tribution of water to private competitive enterprise (in 
order to take advantage of the supposed greater efficiency 
of private over public control) two steps would have to be 
taken: (a) outlets for water would have to be padlocked 
or metered; (b) the release of water would have to be re- 
stricted to fit the buying power of the public. The result would 
inevitably be a marked reduction in the consumption of water, 
and a conservation of its supply. 

It would seem just as unnecessary to conserve the sup- 
plies of goods that can be provided in desired quantities, 
as it is to conserve the supply of water. There would seem 
to be no basis, in the nature of things, for reducing the sow 
birth-rate, or restricting the acreage of needed agricultural 
products or even for mining less coal than is required to keep 
our people warm. The supplies, even of the non-recurrent 
raw materials, are ample. The labor force is adequate. 
Equipment lasts as long when used as when idle, or longer. 
And knowledge is likely to advance more rapidly when util- 
ized than when suppressed. 

The result of removing the production and distribution 
of such goods as can be supplied in desired quantities from 
the restrictions of the contemporary economic system, would 
be the release of our product capacity and the satisfaction, by 
tangible goods and services, of the needs and reasonable^ de- 

* "Reasonable" is used to exclude desires for first editions of Shakespeare, 
such desires as cannot, in the nature of things, be satisfied. 



CONCLUSION 247 

sires of our population. There would seem to be no more 
reason for frustrating these needs and desires than there Is 
for withholding water from the thirsty. No virtue resides In 
withholding desired goods when the desired goods can be 
supplied by the application of labor and knowledge. The 
Western World is stultified by a convention which has come 
down from the long ages of scarcity. It does not yet realize 
that modern technology has abolished the necessity of with- 
holding from consumption most Items of the human budget. 

Harold Loeb 



APPENDIX 

The following abbreviations were used in the tables : 

Rep. = Report. 

WS = Worksheet. 

A.T. = Allocation Table. 

IND. = Capacity is indeterminate but adequate for the 

budget. 
N.S.P.P.C. = National Survey of Potential Product 

Capacity. 

Notes on Table II. This table presents a detailed break- 
down of the commodities which have been grouped together 
and listed under one general heading in Column 4. For In- 
stance, the first item which appears in Column 4 is titled 
"paper packaging" and given the key number i In Table 2. 
Turning to the latter table, It Is seen that three separate Items 
are given the same key (identifying) number, namely, 
paper bags (Kraft), waxed paper, and bags (paper). These 
three items therefore have been combined and shown under 
the single heading "paper packaging" In Column 4. This 
method was followed throughout in compiling Column 4. 

General Notes. Three zeros (000) have been omitted 
in most Instances. The year refers to 1929 unless otherwise 
noted. 



248 



APPENDIX 



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D. O, !Xrn CXEXO.Cl.CXCliCl.Cl.D.Cl.CliCI.Cl'Cl.a.CIiCl.a.CXCX CX-/N SX 



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REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 



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pa <■< ■< < 

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297 



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301 



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303 



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APPENDIX 
TABLE V-A 

Net Value of Products and Production 
Per Worker in the Manufacturing Industries 

1 899-1 93 1 



311 





Workers 


Net Value 


Net Value 


General 
Price 
Level 










Employed 


of Products 


Production 


Production 








per Worker 


per Worker 








(current dollars) 


(19 13 dollars) 




1899 


5 » 306, 143 


7,350,000,000 


1,385 


1,799 


77 


1904 


5,468,383 


9,700,000,000 


1,774 


2,063 


86 


1909 


6,615,046 


13,150,000,000 


1,988 


2,115 


94 


I9I4 


7,023,685 


1 5 , 600 , 000 , 000 


2,221 


2,221 


100 


I9I9 


9,000,059 


38,300,000,000 


4,256 


2,460 


173 


I92I 


6,946,570 


27,000,000,000 


3,887 


2,385 


163 


1923 


8,778,156 


38,200,000,000 


4,352 


2,638 


165 


1925 


8,384,261 


39,550,000,000 


4,717 


2,775 


170 


1927 


8,349,755 


40,150,000,000 


4,809 


2,812 


171 


1929 


8,838,743 


47,250,000,000 


5,346 


2,987 


179 


I93I 


6,523,026 


27,400,000,000 


4,201 


2,801 


150 



Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933. 



312 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE VI 

Workers Gainfully Engaged and Average Wages, 1929 

Wages and Salaries 
Workers Total Per Worker 

Industry Engaged* (Actual) (Calculated) 

Farm 2,027,000 $1,313,000,000 $ 647 

Mining and quarrying 1,054,160 1,639,176,000 I.S55 

Manufacturing 12,145,309 18,636,352,000 1.534 

Construction 1,359,701 2,619,544,000 1.9^7 

Electric light and power, 

and manufactured gas 33^,435 530,650,000 1.577 

Transportation 2,904,565 4,970,422,000 1,711 

Communication 53^,734 702,598,000 1.319 

Total workers 20,359,904 $30,411,742,000 Avge. $i,494 

Trade 

Wholesale and retail 5,561,865 8,209,337,000 1.476 

Services 

Finance 1,421,838 3,245,846,000 2,282 

Government 3,003,272 4,983,892,000 1.659 

All other services 4,857,880 5,906,815,000 1,216 

Total workers 

gainfully engaged 35. 204. 759 $52,757,632,000 $i.499t 

Plus workers reporting them- 
selves in industries but 
engaged part time or not 
at all 4,240,475 

Total 39,445,234 Average $i,337 

* The total of workers actually engaged was considerably larger, but these totals 
were corrected to represent the equivalent of the numbers that would have been 
engaged full-time to accomplish the same tasks. 

t Senate Document No. 124, basing its calculation on some slightly different 
grounds, arrives at an average wage of $1,475, which figure we have employed 
in our text. 

Source: Senate Document No. 124, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session, Washington, 
D. C, 1934. 



APPENDIX 313 

TABLE VII 

Entrepreneurs Engaged and Average Withdrawals, 1929 



Industry 


Entrepreneurs 
Engaged 


Withdrawals 
Total 


Average 


Production Industries 
Mining and quarrying. . . . 

Manufacturing 

Construction 

Transportation 

Miscellaneous industries. . 


14,109 

133.173 
167,811 
168,508 
692,395 

I. 175. 995 


$ 70,217,000 

380,644,000 

436,249,000 

299,121,000 

1,567,873,000 


Avge. 


$4,976 
2,858 
2,600 

1,775 
2,264 


Total 


2,754,104,000 


2,342 


Trade 
Wholesale and retail 


1,601,379 


2,402,072,000 




1,500 


Services 
(Excluding finance) 


677.390 


2,344,725,000 




3,461 


Total entrepreneurs*. . . 


3.454.764 
6,029,000 


7,500,901,000 




2,171 


Farmers* 


5,696,000,000 


945 


Grand total 


9,483,764 


$13,196,901,000 


?i,392t 



* The discrepancy between Table XXI, "Breakdown of Labor," and the above 
is due to the fact that Table XXI lists the "full time equivalent" of farm owners 
and tenants, while the above table lists the "total number" of farm owners and 
tenants. 

t Not including bankers. Finance is not covered in Senate Document No. 124. 
On p. I4 of this source are given the following totals: 
Entrepreneurial Income (excluding "property 

income") amounting to $12,206,000,000 $16,136,000,000 

Entrepreneurs (gainfully employed) 9,020,000 

Average withdrawal i ,789 

The discrepancy between the above figure, $1,789, and our figure, $1,392, is 
partly due to the inclusion in the former of net rents and royalties which amounted 
to $4,116,000,000. 

Source: Senate Document No. 124, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session, Washington, 
D. C, 1934. 



314 



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3l6 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Notes on Tables X, XI, XII, and XIV 

In the present budget study, consideration is given to our entire population 
of 125,000,000, rather than to a fragment thereof. The division into 37,500,000 
white-collar and professional workers and 87,500,000 industrial workers — both in- 
clusive of their dependents — is based upon the breakdowns of the population 
according to types of work found in the Statistical Abstract of the United States. 
White-collar work covers clerical, executive, sales promotion, and the like; while 
industrial work covers agriculture, machine tending, and similar occupations. 

For the purpose of budget studies, many different methods of dividing the 
population are possible. For the sake of simplicity, however, the seven broad 
classifications given in Table X are employed in our budget computation. The 
primary adult classes — men and women between the ages of 15 and 64 — require 
an apparel budget fitted to their workaday life. Men and women of 65 and over 
need the same type of wearing apparel, but are given a separate classification 
because their quantitative needs differ. Boys, girls, and babies have peculiar 
requirements of their own. 

TABLE X 
Breakdown of Population 
(Basis of the Wearing-Apparel Budget) 

a-r ■ Professional & t , ^ • , All -r- .. 1 

assihcation wjt-^ r^ n Industrial /^u-u lotal 

White-Collar Children 

Men (15-64) 10,000,000 31,000,000 41,000,000 

Women (15-64) 16,000,000 24,500,000 40,500,000 

Older men (over 65) 1,000,000 2,500,000 3,500,000 

Older women (over 65) ... . 1,500,000 2,000,000 3,500,000 

Boys (5-14) 12,500,000 12,500,000 

Girls (5-14) 12,500,000 12,500,000 

Infants (under 5) 11,500,000 11,500,000 

Total 28,500,000 60,000,000 36,500,000 125,000,000 

The individual amounts of apparel listed — the fundamental basis of the budget — 
were derived mainly from the study by the Heller Committee for Research in 
Social Economics, University of California, which in 1927 compiled a budget of 
actual expenditures by the professional class of the San Francisco area. This has 
been supplemented by the 1927 budget studies of Typographical Union No. 6, 
covering skilled workers of the New York City area, which was based on a Depart- 
ment of Labor study. 

An agreement by various expert observers supplied the additional data to 
round out the listings of apparel requirements. In the final analysis, the needs of 
the white-collar workers were founded upon a composite of the California "pro- 
fessional" and "clerk" requirements; while the needs of the industrial workers 
were based upon the mean of the California "worker" and the New York "skilled 
worker." 



APPENDIX 

TABLE XI 

Clothing Budget and Production 

(Not Including Work or Baby Clothes) 



317 



Article ' 



BUDGET 



Males (Total 57,000,000) 



Professional and 
White-Collar 



Age 

15/65 

10,000 1 



Age 
6s/up 



Manual Labor 



Age 

15/65 



Age 
6s/up 
2,500 



All 



Age 

5/14 
12,500 



ACTUAL PRODUC- 
TION 1929 



Total Pro- 
duction (in 
millions) 



Production 

per 

Capita ' 



Suits 

Overcoats and Topcoats . 
Extra Pants and Knickers 

Hosiery (pairs) 

Shirts 

Underwear 

Sleeping Apparel 

Shoes (pairs) 

Hats 

Sweaters 



\ 
li 
13 
7 

5 

2i 
3 



i 

IS 

7 
7 

2h 



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44- 



29 

Q 
37 
719 
173 
286 
49 
180 
120 
28 



i 

i 

I2i 

3 
5 

i 
3i 



1/9 



Females (Total 56,500,000) 



Coats 

Dresses and Frocks 
Suits (inc. Knit). . . 
Hosiery (pairs) . . . . 

Underwear 

Brassieres 

Corsets, Girdles. . . . 
Sleeping Apparel. . . 

Shoes (pairs) 

Hats 

Sweaters 



16,000 ' 


1,500 


24.500 


2,000 


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I 3/10 



23 04 

206.46 

14.50 

614 52 

258.95 

24.68 

28.69 

20.03 

180.70 

133.21 

28.74 



2/5 

3! 

i 



1 000 omitted. 

2 In pieces unless otherwise noted. 

•Total population, less infants under five years, consisted of 113,500,000 individuals. 

The findings given in Table XI are summarized in Table XII according to total 
male requirements and total female requirements in the various major items of the 
budget. A similar breakdown for 1929 production and capacity is given for purposes 
of comparison. 



3i8 



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REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 



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APPENDIX 319 

Total individual yearly expenditures per man, woman, older man, older woman, 
etc., according to the terms of the present budget, are shown in Table XIV. 
A theoretic average of the requirements for a family consisting of man, woman, 
boy, and girl is given at the foot of this table, according to total yearly expenditures 
of such an average group. 

TABLE XIV 

Annual Cost of Clothing of the Two Groups 
Expenditure per Person and per Family According to Table XI 



Group 



Professional Industrial 



Man ^168.43 ?i50-94 

Woman 216.59 174-24 

Older man loi . 28 98-55 

Older woman 104 . 1 2 93 • 9° 

Boy 93.11 93.11 

Girl 112-34 "2.34 

Baby 50.00 50.00 

Family of four (man, woman, boy, girl) I590 . 47 ^530 . 63 



320 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 





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APPENDIX ^ 321 

Household Budget 

This study is intended as a practical determination of the textile products 
necessary to furnish 800,000 proposed apartments and 750,000 six-room homes 
per year; also the replacements required for the nation's 29,000,000 occupied 
homes. These products are those generally listed as "house-furnishing goods." 

To facilitate proper and detailed study, a floor plan was prepared of typical 
two-, three-, and four-room units in a thirty-two family apartment; also a plan of 
a six-room house suitable for a family of four or five persons. 

Thus this budget provides complete house- furnishing equipment for 1,550,000 
new homes, plus the replacement materials required for the gradual rejuvenation 
of 29,000,000 existing homes, after proper allowances for depreciation. Calculations 
are based on the assumption that the new homes be completely furnished in a 
manner suited to the families for which they are intended. 

In order to be able to estimate the requirements of each of the 800,000 apart- 
ments and the 750,000 six-room individual houses, the equipment was assumed to 
be standardized. Each kitchen was provided with linoleum for the floor, cotton 
draperies for the windows, tablecloths, and the like. All windows are draped, the 
floors covered with suitable rugs or carpets, the halls with rugs or runners. Portieres 
are hung between the kitchen and living room. The bath has a bath mat, and the 
beds have all necessary covering for summer and winter. (Obviously such uniformity 
or standardization would not be practiced under actual conditions and is useful 
mainly as an average for estimating total requirements.) 

The method followed in constructing Tables XV and XVI is to estimate in 
square yards the total textile material required to furnish all new construction. 

Table XVII is a summary of these estimates. Column i of Table XVII 
indicates reports from which the data were obtained; Column 2 the item; Columns 
3 and 4 the material required for completely equipping all dwellings with house- 
furnishings. Column 5 gives a figure representing the year-serviceability, establish- 
ing the depreciation factor that was assumed in computing the replacement material 
requirements in Column 6 for present occupied homes. Column 7 gives the total 
budget. 

The 1929 capacity and production, and the corresponding ratios of production 
and capacity to budget material requirements are shown in Columns 8, 9, 10, and 11. 
The total also presents the various items in related groups, which facilitates the 
determination of ratios between production, capacity, and material, as is illustrated 
in the following table: 

Ratios 
Group P/BM* C/BM* 

Rugs, carpets, etc 80 1 . 12 

Bed coverings 53 i . 20 

Sheets, pillowcases, etc 47 i .08 

Draperies 84 1.92 

Table covers 69 1-34 

Towels, cloths, etc 64 i .46 

* P, production; BM, budgeted materials; C, capacity. 

It appears from this study that the available cotton goods is sufficient for the 
budget requirements if allowance is made for the unused capacity. Such articles 
as sheets and pillowcases exceed production by, respectively, two and six times 
the budget provision. However, these items as given in the Census of Manufac- 
tures are rather difficult to interpret in terms of definite articles since the word 
"sheeting" therein used covers many grades of cotton goods which are not the 
commonly understood household "sheetings." Likewise pillowcases are generally 
made from "pillow-tubing," though they may be made from sheeting. 

The production of tablecloths, napkins and towels is not adequate to the budget 
requirements. Where these shortages exist for the full equipment of the new apart- 
ment or home, the assumption is entertained that the occupying families will 
have enough such items in reserve to serve them until new material is available. 



322 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 



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324 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

Percentage of Retail Price to Manufacturers' Value 

The wide range of prices, as well as the variety of items, listed in Column 6, 
Table I, made impossible a single factor to correlate retail prices and manufacturers' 
prices. Therefore it became necessary to consult many different sources. Those most 
generally referred to were the Census of Manufactures and the Census of Distri- 
bution, both made by the Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce. The 
Progressive Grocer, the official organ of the Retail Grocers' Association of the 
United States, was also referred to extensively. 

In arriving at the percentage of retail markup for foodstuffs and similar consumer 
goods, manufacturers' prices for certain quantities of an item were taken from the 
Census of Manufactures and compared to the same quantities sold at retail as 
reported in the Census of Distribution. The ratio thus obtained was then applied 
to the entire production of the item in question. (To the resulting total of all con- 
sumer commodities was added the value of the food consumed on farms, which 
was figured at wholesale prices.) 

The production values of automobiles and equipment given in the Census ot 
Manufactures, and the retail values given in "Facts and Figures of the Automobile 
Industry" for 1930, published by the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce, 
gave us the factor by which the retail markup of these items was calculated. 

A similar procedure was used through the various classes of consumer goods 
such as wearing apparel, housing, personal, recreation, and health. Services, such 
as telegraph and telephone, domestic help, etc., are given in the Census at retail 
prices and there is consequently no markup. 

TABLE XVIII 

Ratio of Retail Markup to Manufacturer's Price 
Foodstuffs 



Ratio 

Meats 1 .91 

Lard i .91 

Poultry and wild game i . 91 

Fish, fresh i .91 

Fish, canned i .91 

Fruits 3.10 

Nuts 3 • 10 

Vegetables 3 • 10 

Flour 1 .66 

Breakfast food i . 66 

Bread 2 . 50 

Biscuits 2 , 50 

Cake, etc 2 . 50 

Milk 2.76 

Butter 1.25 

Cheese 1.25 

Miscellaneous milk products. ... i .25 



Ratio 

Ice Cream 2 . 76 

Beverages 1.25 

Eggs 2.72 

Sugar 3.10 

Confectionery 1.25 

Coffee, tea, and spice 3 06 

Fats, inch oleomargarine 1-25 

Miscellaneous foods 1 ■ 5° 



Wearing Apparel 



Men's Wear 

Suits 1 .59 

Coats and topcoats i . 59 

Pants and knickers i . 59 

Hosiery 1.56 

Shirts 1 .58 



Women's Wear 

Coats 1 . 60 

Dresses and frocks 1 . 58 

Suits 1 .57 

Hosiery i . 64 

Underwear 1 . 56 



APPENDIX 
TABLE XVIII {Continued) 
Ratio of Retail Markup to Manufacturers' Price 
Ratio 



325 



Underwear 1.56 

Sleeping robes, etc i . 59 

All shoes 1 . 61 

All hats 1 . 75 

All sweaters i . 62 

All work clothes 1.59 



Ratio 

Brassieres, corsets, and sleeping 
apparel i . 60 

Miscellaneous, incl. shoe repairs, 
etc 1 .60 



Heating equipment 

Lighting equipment 

Outdoor equipment 

Misc. equipment and tools. 

Cooking equipment 

Utensils 

Accessories, kitchen 

Laundry equipment 



Housing 

1 . 72 Bed and living room furniture ... 1 . 96 

1 . 72 Natural gas 8 . 00 

1 .72 Artificial gas 4.00 

1 .96 Fuel oil, kerosene, and lubricants i .60 

1 . 96 Anthracite coal 2.87 

1 . 72 Bituminous coal 5.05 

1 .72 Coke and firewood 3 00 

1.72 Ice 1. 10 



Motor gasoline. 
Automobiles. . . 



Transportation 

. 1 . 14 Horses, bicycles and motor- 



^■23 



cycles . 



1.50 



Tobacco and accessories. 

Writing materials 

Toilet accessories 

Notions 



Personal 
1.85 Perfumes, etc. 



1 .71 Clocks, watches, etc. 

I .51 Soap 

1 .65 Personal supplies. . . - 



1. 51 

1-74 
1.51 
1.50 



Radios 

Music and instruments. 



Recreation 

1 .65 Books, sporting goods, etc. 

1.65 



1.50 



Drugs, preparations . 



Health 
1 . 5 1 Miscellaneous supplies . 



1-54 



326 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE XrX 

Imports of Consume* Goods, 1929 

(Not included until Column 6) 

Value 

Item Wholesale Retail* 

Meat products $ 61,732,000 

Fish 39,772,000 

Furs 108,049,000 

Drugs 10,581,000 

Dyeing and tanning materials 8,109,000 

Laces, etc 11, 723 , 000 

Wool wearing apparel 19,975,000 

Wool manufactures 64,869,000 

Precious stones, pearls, etc 79,650,000 

Automobiles 5,151,000 

Pigments, paints, varnishes 3,823,000 

Photographic goods 7,359,000 

Scientific and professional instruments 4,074,000 

Clocks, watches, etc 16,922,000 

Miscellaneous 81,122,000 



$522,911,000 $814,172,000 

' Average retail markup, 55.7 per cent. 

TABLE XX 

Exports of Consumer Goods, 1929 

(Not deducted until Column 6) 

Value 
Item Wholesale Retail* 

Cotton manufactures $ 135,100,000 

Automobiles, parts, etc 539,300,000 

Photographic and projection apparatus 31 ,600,000 

Books and printed matter 27,100,000 

Silk manufactures 20,400,000 

Tobacco manufactures 19,500,000 

Automobile tires 33, 500 , 000 

Pigments, paints, varnishes 29, 100,000 

Iron and steel manufactures 87,000,000 

Naval stores, gums and resins, etc 31 ,000,000 

Animal oils and fats 117,700,000 

Hides and skins (raw) 117,500,000 

Animal products (inedible) 7,900,000 

Miscellaneous textile products 24,100,000 

Non-metallic minerals 41,800,000 

Total 11,262,600,000 $1,948,301,000 

Exports (not included in Table I) $1,948,301,000 

Imports (not included in Table I) 814, 172,000 (See Tabic XIX) 

Balance, exports over imports $1,134,129,000 

* Average retail markup, 54 per cent. 



APPENDIX 327 

TABLE XXI 

Reports and Their Sources 

Report 
No. 

8 Bureau of Mines. 

Statistical Bulletin, American Petroleum Institute. 

10 "Petroleum Refineries in the United States," Bureau of Mines, Depart- 

ment of Commerce. 
Statistical Bulletin, American Petroleum Institute. 
"Survey of Current Business," Department of Commerce. 

11 "Petroleum Refineries in the United States," Bureau of Mines, Depart- 

ment of Commerce. 

12 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
Statistical Bulletin, American Petroleum Institute. 
"Survey of Current Business," Department of Commerce. 

15 "Natural Gas," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
20 Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 
Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

22 Statistical Bulletin, Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

"Trend of Employment," Department of Labor. 

23 "Survey of Current Business," Business Week, McGraw-Hill Publishing 

Co., Inc. 

Glass Containers' Association. 
31 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Federated Textiles Industries. 
2,3 American Bottlers of Carbonated Beverages. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
34 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
38 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

43 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

44 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

45 National Canners' Association. 

Canning Machinery and Supplies Association. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
47 National Canners' Association. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Department of Labor. 
S3 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
63 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

65 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

66 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

68 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
Minerals Yearbook, American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

69 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
83 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

"15th Census of Agriculture," Bureau of the Census. 
85 "15th Census of Agriculture," Bureau of the Census. 
87 General Crop Report, Dec, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

"15th Census of Agriculture," Bureau of the Census. 
102 "15th Census of Agriculture," Bureau of the Census. 
105 "15th Census of Agriculture," Bureau of the Census. 

Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

108 Institute of Leather, Cloth, and Lacquered Fabrics Manufacturers. 

109 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

1 10 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 



328 



Report 
No. 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. 
TABLE XXI {Continued) 
Reports and Their Sources 



Ii6 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce, 

117 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

118 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

119 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

120 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
Mineral Yearbook, American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

127 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
129 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

131 American Iron and Steel Institute. 

132 American Iron and Steel Institute. 

143 "Paper Authority Report," National Recovery Administration. 

144 Department of Agriculture. 

148 Yearbook oj Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
150 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1932, Department of Agriculture. 

Census of Agriculture, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
153 Census of Agriculture, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
160 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

162 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

163 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
165 Spice Mill, Spice Mill Publishing Company, Inc. 

Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
National Coffee Roasters Association. 
Tea Association of the U. S. A. 
Jabez Burns & Sons. 

170 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 
Internal Revenue Bureau, Treasury Department. 

171 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 

172 Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

179 National Automobile Chamber of Commerce. 

Annual Report, 1929, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Canada. 
181 "Statistical Abstracts," 1931, 1932, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
187 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
196 Yearbook oj Agriculture, 1932, Department of Agriculture. 
232 Yearbook oj Agriculture, 1932, Department of Agriculture. 

282 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

283 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 
285 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

303 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
306 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
Colgate-Palmolive-Peet Company. 

315 National Lead Company. 

Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

316 Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

317 Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, McGraw-Hill Publishing Com- 

pany, Inc. 
National Lead Company. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 



APPENDIX 329 

TABLE XXI {Continued) 
Reports and Their Sources 

Report 

No. 

319 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 

324 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
Sweet-Orr Co. 

325 Naval Stores Yearbook, ig2'^- 
Hercules Powder Company. 

Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

326 F. W. Dodge Corporation, 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. 

Engineering News-Record, McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, Inc. 

Commercial and Financial Chronicle, William B. Dana Publishing Company. 

Interstate Commerce Commission Reports. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. 

F. W. Dodge Corporation. 
328 Tariff Readjustment Hearings, 1929, Government Printing Office. 

Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
350 Edison Electric Institute. 

Census of Electric Industries, 1929, Department of Commerce. 
361 Motion Picture Almanac, Quigley Publishing Company. 

Motion Picture Producers and Distributors of America. 
392 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

394 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

395 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

396 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

397 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
399 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

410 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

411 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

412 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

413 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

414 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

415 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
417 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

419 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

422 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

423 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
427 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

432 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

433 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
435 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

437 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

438 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

439 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
444 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

449 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

450 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

490 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

491 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

492 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
497 Electrical fVorld, McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, Inc. 

Edison Electric Institute. 
504 Food Industries^ McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, Inc. 



330 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE XXI (Continued) 
Reports and Their Sources 

Report 
No. 

509 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
511 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
514 Circular No. 296, Department of Agriculture. 
543 Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 

Tariff Readjustment Hearings, 1929, Government Printing Office. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

553 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 
American Iron and Steel Institute. 

"Metal Statistics," American Metal Market Company. 
"Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

554 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

555 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

556 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

557 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
566 Bureau of Labor. 

Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

568 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

569 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

570 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

Tariff Readjustment Hearings, 1929, Government Printing Office. 

571 Circular No. 296, Department of Agriculture. 

572 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 
Bureau of Animal Industry, Department of Agriculture. 

574 "Handbook of Dairy Statistics," 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

575 Commerce Yearbook, 1929, Department of Commerce. 

576 Circular No. 296, Department of Agriculture. 

580 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1931, Department of Agriculture. 

Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 

Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
582 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

"Milk Production in the United States," 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

585 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

"Milk Production in the United States," 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

586 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

587 "Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
"15th Census of Agriculture," Bureau of the Census. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 

591 Senate Document 12, Government Printing Office. 

Report 590, Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 

594 Business Research Division of the Tubize Chatillon Corporation. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

595 Federated Textile Industries. 

Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

596 Bureau of Fisheries, Department of the Interior. 
"Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 

597 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 



APPENDIX 331 

TABLE XXI {Continued) 

Reports and Their Sources 

Report 
No. 

598 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

599 Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 

602 Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 

"Natural Gas," 1929, Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
"Natural Gasoline," 1929, Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

603 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1931-1932, Department of Agriculture. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 
"Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 

608 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
"Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 

613 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

"Handbook of Dairy Statistics," November, 1933, Department of 
Agriculture. 

614 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. 
Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Fred H. Colvin, Editor, American Machinist, McGraw-Hill Publishing 

Company, Inc. 
Ralph E. Flanders, Jones & Lamson Machine Co. 

620 15th Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 
Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
"Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 

621 Commerce Yearbook, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
" Facts and Figures," American Petroleum Institute. 

622 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

624 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

625 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

626 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

627 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

628 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

629 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

630 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

631 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

632 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

633 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

634 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

635 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

636 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

637 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

638 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

639 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

640 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

641 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

642 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

643 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

644 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

645 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

646 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

647 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

648 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

649 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

650 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

651 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 



332 REPORT OF THE N. S, P. P. C. 

TABLE XXI {Continued) 
Reports and Their Sources 

Report 

No. 

652 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

653 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

654 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

655 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

656 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

657 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
661 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

663 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

664 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

665 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

666 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

667 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

669 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

670 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

672 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

673 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

674 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

675 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

676 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

677 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

679 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

680 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

681 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

682 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

683 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

684 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

685 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

686 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

687 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

688 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

689 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

690 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

691 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

692 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

693 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
696 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

"Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
Rice Millers' Association. 

Northwestern Miller, Miller Publishing Company. 
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 
"Survey of Current Business," Department of Commerce. 
American Institute of Food Distribution. 
705 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

"Feeds and Feeding," Henry and Morrison, Henry, Morrison Co. 

715 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

716 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

717 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

718 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

719 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

720 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 



APPENDIX 333 

TABLE XXI {Continued) 
Reports and Their Sources 

Report 

No. 

721 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

723 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

726 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

727 Conservation Commissions of various states. 

729 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

731 Tariff Readjustment Hearings, 1929, Government Printing Office. 
Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

732 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
741 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

744 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

745 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
747 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
750 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

752 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

753 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
764 "Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 

Yearbook oj Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
"Fats and Oils," Department of Agriculture. 
766 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

769 "Fats and Oils," Department of Agriculture. 
"Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 

770 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
777 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

779 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

780 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
782 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
814 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

817 American Iron & Steel Institute. 

818 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 
832 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 



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342 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 







United States Census, 1930. 
Fortune Magazine, Time, Inc. 
Horwath & Horwath, "Capacity," Ahrens 
Publishing Co. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Depart- 
ment of Labor. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the 
Census. 

The American Machinist, McGraw-Hill 
Publishing Co. 


11^ 


223 

Re- 
port 
614 


Capacity Determinants 

• 


Capacity is based on an estimate of the 
probable utilization of hotel facilities 
(measured in 1929 dollar values) by the 
public if family incomes were increased 
to an average of $4370. 

Capacity figures where given based on 
highest yearly production for items 
specified, with two shifts instead of one. 
Skilled labor shortage prohibits two 
shifts for industry as a whole. (Items 
specified were 25% of total production 
in 1929.) 


bo 

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APPENDIX 343 

TABLE XXII-A 

Worksheets and Their Sources 
(Not included in Table XXII.) 



Work- 
sheet 



4 National Industrial Conference Board. 

Brookings Institution. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
7 The Tanner's Council. 

Bureau of the Census. 

15 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
Code Authority of the Umbrella and Parasol Industry. 

16 Chemical & Metallurgical Engineering, McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, 

Inc. 
Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
S. D. Kirkpatrick. 
F. de John. 

General Chemical Company. 
Colgate-Palmolive-Peet Company. 
Departmental Report, 1929, War Department. 
Warner Chemical Company. 

20 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

21 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

"New American Motorcyclist and Bicyclist," Cycling Press, Inc. 
Motorcycle and Allied Trades Association. 

22 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
29 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
32 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
37 Motion Picture Almanac, Quigley Publishing Company. 

Motion Picture Producers and Distributors of America. 

Film Weekly, Goodbody & Co. 

Bulletin S-114, Department of Commerce. 
44 American Iron and Steel Institute. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

48 "Coke in 1930," Department of Commerce. 

49 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

50 American Iron and Steel Institute. 

52 "Metal Statistics," American Metal Markets Company. 

55 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

56 Statistical Abstract of the United States, Department of Commerce. 
62 "Metal Statistics," American Metal Markets Company. 

71 "Statistical Abstract," 1933, Department of Commerce. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
74 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

76 Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 

77 American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

78 "Mineral Resources," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
81 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 

87 Bureau of the Census. 

88 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
93 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

95 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

96 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
loi Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 



344 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE XXII-A. {Continued) 
Worksheets and Their Sources 
(Not included in Table XXII.) 

Work- 
sheet 

102 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census, 

103 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
105 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
107 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census, 
no Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

114 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

115 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

116 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

117 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

120 Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 

123 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

124 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1931, Department of Commerce. 
Associated Corn Products Manufacturers. 

128 Spice Mill, Spice Mill Publishing Company. 
Report, Department of Commerce. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agriculture. 

129 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Survey of Current Business, Annual Supplement, 1932, Department of 
Commerce. 

130 Internal Revenue Department. 

Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Commerce Yearbook, Department of Commerce. 

Survey of Current Business, Annual Supplement, 1932, Department of 
Commerce. 
133 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, Department of Commerce. 
136 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

"Gas & Coke Industries, 1929," Bureau of Mines, Department of Commerce. 
143 Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 

Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

Yearbook of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture. 

Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 

Statistical Abstract, 1933, Department of Commerce. 

149 Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 
Yearbook of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture. 
Dairy Statistics, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

150 Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 
Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 
152 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
152-A Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
153-A Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. 
155 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
162 American Newspaper Publishers Association, 

Associated Business Papers, 



APPENDIX 345 

TABLE XXII-A. {Continued) 
Worksheets and Their Sources 
(Not included in Table XXII.) 

Work- 
sheet 

163 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 

164 Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 

165 Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 

166 Circular 296, Department of Agriculture. 

Yearbook of Agriculture, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 
Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 
Commerce Yearbook, 1932, Department of Commerce. 
Statistical Abstract, 1933, Department of Commerce. 

168 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

169 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

172 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

173 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

174 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

175 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

176 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

177 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

178 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

179 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

180 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

181 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

182 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

183 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

184 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

185 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

186 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
188 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

190 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

191 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

192 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census, 

193 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

194 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

195 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

196 Census of Manufactures, 1929, Bureau of the Census. 

198 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

199 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929, 



346 



Work- 
sheet 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE XXII-A. (Continued) 

Worksheets and Their Sources 

(Not included in Table XXII.) 



200 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

201 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

202 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

203 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

205 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

206 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. 

207 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

208 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

209 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

210 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

21 1 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

212 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

213 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

214 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

215 Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture. 
Tariff Readjustment, 1929. 

218 Bureau of the Census. 

F. W. Dodge Corporation. 

219 Census of Occupations, Bureau of the Census. 

Former President Hoover's Committee on the Cost of Medical Care. 

220 Census of Agriculture, Bureau of the Census. 



APPENDIX 347 

TABLE XXII-A. {Continued) 

Worksheets akd Their Sources 

(Not included in Table XXII.) 

Work- 
sheet 

Yearbooks of Agriculture, 1931, 1932, 1933, Department of Agriculture. 

225 Interstate Commerce Commission. 

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 

226 "Mineral Yearbook," American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 

227 Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1933, Department of Commerce. 
"Insurance Yearbook," Spectator Company. 

Superintendent of Insurance, State of New York. 

228 "Commerce Yearbook," Department of Commerce. 
"Facts and Figures," American Petroleum Institute. 
Statistical Abstracts, Department of Commerce. 

229 Commerce Yearbook, Department of Commerce. 
"Facts and Figures," American Petroleum Institute. 
Statistical Abstracts, Department of Commerce. 



348 



REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 



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352 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

NOTES TO TABLE XXIII 

In order to obtain estimates of the labor required for ideal capacity production, 
by which is meant an output sufficient to produce our consumers' budget, we have 
drawn freely on the figures given in Senate Document No. 124, 73rd Congress, 
2nd Session, which was prepared by the Division of Economic Research, Bureau of 
Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United States Department of Commerce, in 
co-operation with the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The above 
source is probably more accurate than the Census estimates for 1930. 

The labor required for future production is dependent on the increased rate of 
mechanization, as well as on other unpredictable changes in the efficiency with 
which labor is utilized. The effect of these indefinite factors can be seen by examining 
Table 5 (Per Capita Wages and Value of Product Per Worker in the Man- 
ufacturing Industries) given elsewhere in this Appendix. 

In the 18 years (1914 to 1932), the total increase in value per worker (in terms of 
"1929 dollar value") was $2687, an average of about ^149 per year. The effect of 
temporary conditions can readily be interpreted. Thus, the end of the War witnessed 
a sudden slackening of production, but labor was not immediately dismissed and 
consequently the production per worker actually decreased. The effect of the 
present depression on productivity of labor is even more glaringly evident from the 
table. During the first two years, an effort was made to retain employees in the face 
of a severe curtailment of output. When it was realized that no immediate improve- 
ment in demand could be expected, every effort was made to lower costs by the 
introduction of mechanization wherever possible, and by a wholesale reduction of 
labor forces. It was inevitable that the least efficient (highest-cost) plants and labor 
forces would be the first to suffer. A consequent increase in labor productivity of 
^1294 in one year, or over nine times the average, was the result of closing down 
inefficient plants and discharging ineffective workers. 

If we discount this abnormal condition and endeavor to obtain a curve of in- 
creased productivity, we obtain a figure (measured in 1929 dollars) of Ji 19 per year 
as the increased productivity of labor due mainly to improved technology. It seems 
reasonable to assume that this average increase will continue for the next five years 
and we have therefore used this figure in computing our labor requirements. 
Although it is obvious that this increment will not be the same for all industries, the 
error (in assuming this ^119 increment per year for all manufacturing industries) 
will not seriously affect our results. 

We have given above the men actually working in each industry. This does not 
agree with the census figures which give the number, according to a worker's trade 
or ordinary occupation, regardless of whether they are working or not. This is 
especially noteworthy in the case of the construction industry where, in 1929, the 
number of laborers, masons, carpenters, etc., ordinarily classified by the census as 
in the "construction industry," totalled 2,606,322 (W.S. 218) while, according to 
the BREAKDOWN OF LABOR report (W.S. 331), the total number engaged in 
the construction industry was only 1,528,000. The enormous difference is only 
partially accounted for by the carpenters not engaged in construction, eta., etc., 
and is largely attributed to unemployed construction workers. 

Listing, for 1929, the wage earners, salaried employees and entrepreneurs in 
industry, and comparing the output with our theoretical budget, gives us a founda- 
tion for estimating the labor required to attain our budgeted production. 

It is obvious that technological improvement, as illustrated in Table XXII will 
have an influence on the number of men required. The detailed examination of this 
influence was beyond the scope of the survey. In the same way, the number of 
entrepreneurs could be reduced by consolidations, etc., but this is also neglected. 

Our rough studies indicate that we could obtain the budget output with the labor 
available although there may have to be considerable shifting in occupation to 
meet new conditions. 



APPENDIX 353 

TABLE XXIV 
Value of Product per Worker in the Manufacturing Industries 

Production General Production 

per Worker Price per Worker 

(1913) Level (1929) 

1869 ^1,485 III $2,658 

1913 100 

1914 3.448 100 6,172 

1915 103 

1916 117 

1917 139 

1918 157 

1919 3.996 173 7,153 

1920 193 

1921 3.855 163 6,900 

1922 158 

1923 4.181 165 7,484 

1924 166 

1925 4,400 170 7.876 

1926 171 

1927 4.392 171 7,862 

1928 176 

1929 4,452 179 7,969 

1930 168 

1931 4.226 150 7,565 

1932 4.949 132 8,859 



SOURCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 

Agricultural Adjustment Administration. 

Agriculture, Summary of General Statistics, U. S. Department of Commerce. 

"Aircraft Yearbook," Aeronautical Chamber of Commerce of the U. S., Inc. 

Almanac of the Canning Industry, The Canning Trade. 

American Beet Sugar Companies, 1933-4. 

American Bottlers of Carbonated Beverages. 

American Builder and Building Age, American Builder Publishing Corp. 

American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

American Fur Merchants Association, Inc. 

American Gas Association. 

American Institute of Food Distribution. 

American Institute of Mining and Metallurgical Engineers. 

American Iron and Steel Institute. 

American Leather Belting Association. 

American Machinist, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

American Metal Market, American Metal Market Co., Inc. 

American Newspaper Publishers Association. 

American Petroleum Institute. 

American Railroad Laboratory, Inc., The 

American Railway Car Institute. 

American Silk and Rayon Journal, Clifford & Lawton, Inc. 

American Society of Mechanical Engineers. 

"American Standards Year Book," 1932-33, American Standards Association. 

American Telephone and Telegraph Co. 

American Wool and Cotton Reporter, Frank P. Bennett Co., Inc. 



354 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE XXIV {Continued) 

Sources and Bibliography 

American Zinc Institute. 

"America's Capacity to Produce," Brookings Institution. 

"Analysis of the Corn-Hog Situation," Agricultural Adjustment Administration. 

Architectural Record, F. W. Dodge Corp. 

Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Associated Business Papers, Inc. 

Association of Cotton Textile Merchants of New York. 

Association Management, Inc. 

Aviation, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

Bakers Weekly, American Trade Publishing Co., Inc. 

"Balanced Harvest, A," Agricultural Adjustment Administration. 

Baldwin Locomotive Works. 

"Bituminous Coal Statistics," Bureau of Mines, U. S. Department of Commerce. 

Book Manufacturers Institute. 

Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 

Bureau of Animal Industry, U. S. Department of Agriculture. 

Bureau of Industrial Alcohol. 

Bureau of Mines. U. S. Department of Commerce. 

Bureau of Navigation, U. S. Department of Commerce. 

Bus Transportation, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

Canners' Service Letter, American Institute of Food Distribution. 

"Cement Data," H. S. Mallory. 

Cement Institute, The. 

Census of Manufactures, U. S. Bureau of the Census. 

"Central Power Stations in 1929," U. S. Department of Commerce. 

"Census of Mines and Quarries," Bureau of Mines, U. S. Department of Commerce. 

Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

Coal Age, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

"Coal" (various years). Bureau of Mines, U. S. Department of Commerce. 

Code of Fair Competition for the Graphic Arts Industry. 

"Coke" (various years). Bureau of Mines, U. S; Department of Commerce. 

Columbia Broadcasting Co. 

"Commerce Year Book," U. S. Department of Commerce. 

"Commercial Radio Broadcasting," Federal Communications Commission. 

Committee on Public Relations of the Eastern Railroads. 

Commodity Exchange, Inc. 

Compressed Gas Manufacturers Association. 

Connecticut Agricultural College Experiment Station. 

Copper and Brass Research Association. 

Cordage Trade Journal, Chas. H. Delano & Son. 

"Corn and Hogs Under the Agricultural Adjustment Act," Brookings Institution. 

"Corn-Hog Problem, The," Agricultural Adjustment Administration. 

Cotton Textile Institute, Inc. 

Cycle Trades of America. 

"Dairy Dilemma, The," Address by Henry A. Wallace, Secretary of Agriculture. 

"Directory of Newspapers and Periodicals," N. W. Ayer & Son, Inc. 

"Displacement of Men by Machines," Prof. E. Baker. 

Dodge Statistical Research Service. 

Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Canada. 

Dry Goods Economist, Textile Publishing Co. 

"Economic Bases for the Agricultural Adjustment Act," U. S. Department of 

Agriculture. 
"Economic Survey of the Book Industry," O. H. Cheney. 
"Economic Trends Affecting Agriculture," U. S. Department of Agriculture. 



APPENDIX 355 

TABLE XXIV {Continued) 
Sources and Bibliography 

"Economy and Efficiency of a Milking Machine," The Iowa State College of 
Agriculture. 

Edison Electric Institute. 

Electrical World, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

"Electrification of Farms," Edison Electric Institute. 

Electronics, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co. 

"Employment, Wage Rates and Hours of Work," American Paper and Pulp 
Association. 

Employing Printers Association, New York. 

Engineering and Mining Journal, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

Engineering News-Record, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

Evaporated Milk Association. 

"Facts About Sugar," Russell Palmer. 

"Facts and Figures," American Petroleum Institute. 

"Facts and Figures," Automobile Chamber of Commerce. 

"Farm Organization as Affected by Mechanization," Montana Agricultural Experi- 
ment Station. 

"Fats and Oils," a report, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 

Federal Trade Commission. 

Federated Textile Industries, Inc., The. 

"Feeds and Feeding," Henry Morrison Co. 

Food Industries, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

"Fuel Briquette Statistics," Bureau of Mines, U. S. Department of Commerce. 

"Fuel Oil Consumption, 1929-31," American Petroleum Institute. 

Fur Merchants Association, Inc. 

Furniture Index, Furniture Index, Inc. 

"Gilmore's Louisiana Sugar Directory and Data Book," 

Glass Containers Association. 

"Graphic Survey of American Agriculture Based Largely on the Census," 
O. E. Baker, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 

Hazeltine Laboratories. 

Hercules Powder Co. 

Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Indiana Corn Growers Association. 

Indiana Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Industrial Alcohol Institute. 

Industrial Equipment News, Thomas Publishing Co. 

Institute of Leather Cloth and Lacquered Fabrics Manufacturers. 

Institute of Margarine Manufacturers. 

"International Year Book, 1934," Editor and Publisher, 

Interstate Commerce Commission. 

Iowa Agricultural Experiment Station. 

"Iowa Corn Yield Test," Iowa Corn and Small Grain Growers Association. 

Iron Age, Iron Age Publishing Co. 

"Iron and Steel Works Directory." 

Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station. 

"Kilo-Man-Hour Studies," Alford and Hannum. 

"Land Utilization and the Farm Problem," U. S. Department of Agriculture. 

"Large Scale Regional and Rural Land Planning," Bureau of Agricultural Eco- 
nomics. 

Laundry Age, Laundry Age Publishing Co., Inc. 

Lead Industries Association. 

Machinery , Industrial Press. 



35^ REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE XXIV {Continued) 
Sources and Bibliography 

"Manufacture of Soda," T. H. How. 

Marine Engineering and Shipping Age, Simmons-Boardman Publishing Co. 

Match Institute. 

McBride, R. S., Consulting Chemical Engineer. 

"Mechanization of Agriculture as a Factor in Labor Displacement," U. S. Depart- 
ment of Labor. 

"Merchandising of Cotton Textiles," Copeland and Learned, Harvard University. 

Metal Statistics, American Metal Market Co. 

Metal Trade, Daily — Panton Publishing Co. 

Metals and Alloys, Chemical Catalogue Co., Inc. 

Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Michigan State College of Agriculture and Applied Science. 

"Milk Production Trends, Statistical Supplement to," U. S. Department ot 
Agriculture. 

"Mineral Resources in the United States," 1932-33, Bureau of Mines, U. S. Depart- 
ment of Commerce. 

"Mineral Year Book," American Bureau of Metal Statistics. 

Mining and Metallurgical Society of America. 

Mississippi Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Missouri Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Missouri Agricultural Extension Service. 

Monthly Sales Ratio for the Soft Drink Industry. 

Motion Picture Almanac, Quigley Publishing Co. 

Motion Picture Producers and Distributors of America, Inc. 

Motor and Equipment Association. 

Motorcycle and Allied Trades Association. 

National Association of Book Publishers. 

National Association of Chewing Gum Manufacturers. 

National Association of Cleaners and Dyers. 

National Association of Engine and Boat Manufacturers. 

National Association of Wool Manufacturers. 

National Automobile Chamber of Commerce. 

National Boot and Shoe Association. 

National Broadcasting Co. 

National Canners Association. 

National Casket Co. 

National Cleaner and Dyer, National Cleaner and Dyer Publishing Corp. 

National Coffee Roasters Association. 

National Confectioners Association, 

National Industrial Conference Board. 

National Macaroni Manufacturers Association. 

National Machine Tool Builders Association. 

National Malt Manufacturers Association. 

National Paper Board Association. 

"National Plan for American Forestry, A," Forest Service, U, S. Department of 
Agriculture. 

National Preservers Association. 

National Printing Equipment Association, Inc. 

National Publishers Association. 

National Recovery Administration. 

National Retail Dry Goods Association. 

Natural Gas, Natural Gas Publishing Co. 

"Natural Gas in the United States," 1927-31, U. S. Department of Commerce. 

"Natural Gas, Statistical Appendix to," U. S. Department of Commerce. 



APPENDIX 357 

TABLE XXIV {Continued) 

Sources and Bibliography 

"Natural Gas Year Book, 1932-3," U. S. Department of Commerce. 

"Natural Gasoline in the United States, 1927-31," U. S. Department of Commerce. 

New American Motorcyclist and Bicyclist, Cycling Press, Inc. 

New York State College of Agriculture. 

New York State Official Poultry Breeders, Inc. 

News Print Service Bureau. 

News Record, Daily Trade Record Co. 

North Carolina Agricultural Experiment Station. 

Northwestern Miller, Miller Publishing Co. 

Notman, Arthur, Consulting Engineer. 

"Obsolescence of Machinery," American Machinist, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., 

Inc. 
Ohio Agricultural Experiment Station. 
Oil Burner Association. 

"Outlook for the Dairy Industry, The," U. S. Department of Agriculture. 
Paper Authority Report. 
Pennsylvania Anthracite Coal Statistics, 1933, Bureau of Mines, U. S. Department 

of Commerce. 
Periodical Publishers Institute. 

"Petroleum, 1927-30," U. S. Department of Commerce. 
Postal Telegraph Co. 

Poultry Science, Poultry Science Association. 
"Poultry Statistics," Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 
Prescott, Raymond B., Consulting Economist. 
Printing, Walden Sons — Mott, Inc. 

"Problem of Long Time Agricultural Adjustment, The," Address by R. H. Tolley. 
"Production of Labor in Newspaper Printing," U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
"Proposed Code of Fair Competition for the Copper Industry," U. S. Copper 

Institute. 
Publishers Weekly, R. R. Bowker Co. 
Qualified Manufacturers of Oleomargarine. 
Radio Corporation of America. 
Radio Retailing, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

"Ratios for Printing Management, 1932," United Typothetae of America. 
Real Estate Record and Builders Guide, F. W. Dodge Corp. 
Refrigeration Engineering, American Society of Refrigerating Engineers. 
"Renewed Frontiers," Rexford G. Tugwell, N. Y. Times, Jan. 14, 1934. 
"Reshaping Agriculture," O. W. Wilcox. 
Rice Millers Association. 
Rubber Association of America. 
Rubber Manufacturers Association. 
Rudder, Rudder Publishing Co., Inc. 
Scrap Iron and Steel Institute. 

Senate Investigation of Unemployment Insurance, 1931. 
Shoe and Leather Reporter, Shoe and Leather Reporter Co. 
Spice Mill, Spice Mill Publishing Co., Inc. 

Standard Rate and Data Service, Standard Rate and Data Service. 
Statistical Abstracts of the United States. 
Sugar Institute, Inc. 

Sugar Reference Book and Directory, Russell Palmer. 
"Survey of Current Business," U. S. Department of Commerce. 
Sweet's Catalogue File, F. W. Dodge Corp. 
Tanners Council. 
Tariff Readjustments Hearings, 1929, U. S. Tariff Commission. 



358 REPORT OF THE N. S. P. P. C. 

TABLE XXIV {Continued) 

Sources and Bibliography 

Tariff Surveys. 

Tea Association of the United States of America. 

Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry. 

"Telephone Census of Electrical Industries," U. S. Bureau of the Census. 

"Telephones in 1927-31, Preliminary Report," U. S. Department of Commerce. 

Textile World, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

Time survey. Time, Inc. 

Transit Journal, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Inc. 

"Trend of Employment," U. S. Department of Labor. 

Tubize Chatillon Corporation. 

"Types of Farming in the U. S.," U. S. Department of Agriculture. 

"Types of Farms in the U. S.," U. S. Department of Agriculture. 

Typewriter Institute, The. 

Underwear and Hosiery Review, Knit Goods Publishing Corp. 

United States Army, Annual Report of Chief Engineer. 

United States Bureau of the Census. 

United States Bureau of Fisheries. 

United States Bureau of Internal Revenue. 

United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

United States Census of Manufactures. 

United States Department of Agriculture. 

United States Department of Commerce. 

United States Department of Labor. 

United States Tariff Commission. 

United States War Department. 

United States Beet Sugar Association. 

United States Copper Association. 

United States Industrial Alcohol Co. 

United States Pulp Producers Association. 

United Typothetae of America. 

War College, Confidential Reports. 

Window Glass Manufacturers Association. 

"World Survey of the Zinc Industry," W. R. Ingalls. 

"Year Book of Agriculture, 1928-33," U. S. Department of Agriculture. 

"Year Book of Railroad Information," Committee on Public Relations, Eastern 

Railroads. 
"Year's Progress in Dairy Herd Improvement, A," Agricultural Extension Service, 

University of Illinois.