(navigation image)
Home American Libraries | Canadian Libraries | Universal Library | Community Texts | Project Gutenberg | Children's Library | Biodiversity Heritage Library | Additional Collections
Search: Advanced Search
Anonymous User (login or join us)
Upload
See other formats

Full text of "Report of the International Ice Patrol service in the North Atlantic Ocean"

d^^ Homeland United States 
Security Coast Guard 



■i\D St"- 




Report of the 
International Ice Patrol 
In the North Atlantic 




2003 Season 
Bulletin No. 89 
CG-1 88-58 



f G6 






^ 



voa-^. r 



\oe.^ 



nMoo-^" 






^ 



o^S^^iife 



^k Homeland United States 



Security Coast Guard 




Report of the 
International Ice Patrol 
in the North Atlantic 



G6 




2003 Season 
Bulletin No. 89 
CG-1 88-58 



Bulletin No. 89 
REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL ICE PATROL IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC 

Season of 2003 
CG-1 88-58 



Forwarded herewith is Bulletin No. 89 of the International Ice Patrol (IIP), describing the 
Patrol's services, ice observations and conditions during the 2003 season. On March 1 , 
2003, the U.S. Coast Guard transitioned from the Department of Transportation to the 
newly created Department of Homeland Security. The Department of Homeland 
Security will continue to recognize and support the U. S. Coast Guard's traditional 
missions like the International Ice Patrol. 

Pictured on the front cover of this bulletin is the deployment of a Compact Air Launched 
Ice Beacon (CALIB). IIP deployed this beacon and tracked the iceberg for 13 days. This 
allowed a comparison to HP's present drift model and opened the door for future 
experiments in 2004. Drift model improvements will better focus reconnaissance efforts 
and ultimately improve the accuracy of IIP bulletins. Appendix D of this report provides 
further detail. 

In 2003, IIP also participated in the Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security 
(GMES), a joint European Commission and European Space Agency initiative. As part 
of the Northern View Service Element, IIP worked closely with a Canadian company, C- 
CORE to evaluate an iceberg detection algorithm for satellite images. Along with 
validating the accuracy of this algorithm, IIP focused on the mechanics of incorporating 
this data into MP's drift model. The capability to use satellite imagery operationally, while 
still several years away, will greatly improve iceberg reconnaissance efforts - especially 
in the planning phase for aircraft searches. 

Efforts during the 2003 season advanced MP's improvement of mission execution, 
directly supported the stewardship of valuable Coast Guard resources and moved IIP 
one step closer toward eliminating the risk of iceberg collision. 



M. R. Hicks 

Commander, U. S. Coast Guard 

Commander, International Ice Patrol 



International Ice Patrol 
2003 Annual Report 

Contents 
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 2 

I I I ^ I \^ \^ \aM \^ 1 1 \^ I! esaDceeeeeeBBSBCBEDaEBBaaBasBaBaDBaBeceessaBeesBaBBaBoacsaseSBBeBaBiiBiiBBDBcaBEoaBaBSEBBB ^J 

Summary of Operations 4 

Iceberg Reconnaissance & Oceanographic Operations 10 

Ice and Environmental Conditions 15 

Monthly Sea Ice Charts 24 

Biweekly Iceberg Charts 30 

Acknowledgements 41 

Appendix A: Nations Currently Supporting International Ice Patrol 42 

Appendix B: Ship Reports 43 

Appendix C: 2003 Ice Chart Reception Project 48 

Appendix D: Iceberg Drift Model Comparisons with Ice Island 

Position Data 51 

Ordering Past IIP Annual Reports from NTIS Back Cover 



List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 



AOR Area Of Responsibility 

AXBT Air-deployed expendable BathyThermograph 

BAPS iceBerg Analysis and Prediction System 

CALIB Compact Air Launched Ice Beacon 

CAMSLANT Communications Area Master Station atLANTic 

CCG Canadian Coast Guard 

CIS Canadian Ice Service 

DFO Department of Fisheries and Oceans 

EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone 

FLAR Forward-looking Airborne Radar 

GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security 

GS Gulf Stream 

GSFC Goddard Space Flight Center 

HF High Frequency 

HMCS Her Majesty's Canadian Ship 

IIP International Ice Patrol 

INMARSAT INternational MARitime SATellite (also Inmarsat) 

IRD Ice Reconnaissance Detachment 

LAKI Limit of All Known Ice 

LC Labrador Current 

LDEO Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory 

MANICE MANual of standard procedures for observing and reporting ICE conditions 

MODIS MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer 

MSS5000 Marine Surveillance System 5000 

MA/ Motor Vessel 

NAC North Atlantic Current 

NAO North Atlantic Oscillation 

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NIC National Ice Center 

NSSI Normalized Season Severity Index 

NTIS National Technical Information Service 

RADAR Radio Detection And Ranging (also radar) 

RMS Royal Mail Steamer 

SOLAS Safety Of Life At Sea 

SLAR Side-Looking Airborne Radar 

SST Sea Surface Temperature 

WEFAX WEather FAX 

WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment 

WWW World Wide Web 



Introduction 

This is the 89'^^ annual report of the International Ice Patrol. It contains infornnation 
on IIP operations, environmental conditions, and iceberg conditions for the 2003 season 
in the North Atlantic. IIP is supported by 17 member nations and conducted by the U. S. 
Coast Guard. IIP activities are delineated by U. S. Code, Title 46, Sections 738, 738a 
through 738d, and the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974. IIP 
was initiated shortly after the sinking of the RMS TITANIC on April 15, 1912 and has 
been conducted yearly since that time with the exception of brief periods during the two 
World Wars. 

Commander, International Ice Patrol is under the operational control of 
Commander, Coast Guard Atlantic Area. IIP conducts aerial reconnaissance from St. 
John's, Newfoundland to search the southeastern, southern, and southwestern regions 
of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland for icebergs. IIP also receives iceberg location 
reports from ships and planes transiting its area of responsibility. We salute M/V BERGE 
NORD who provided the most ship reports during the 2003 season. IIP analyzes iceberg 
and environmental data at its Operations Center in Groton, Connecticut. IIP predicts 
iceberg drift and deterioration using a computer model and produces twice-daily iceberg 
warnings that are broadcast to mariners as bulletins and charts. IIP also responds to 
requests for iceberg information. 

Vice Admiral James D. Hull was Commander, U. S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area. 
CDR Robert L. Desh was Commander, International Ice Patrol through 15 August 2003 
when he was relieved by CDR Michael R. Hicks. 

For more information about International Ice Patrol, including iceberg bulletins and 
charts, see MP's website at http://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/home.html. 



^ 


i 


" 






r^ 




to 




□ 




n- 


s^= 


r- 




o 


m- ^ 




^s^— 


m 




□ 




□ 






- 









INTERNATIONAL 
ICE PATROL 




Summary of Operations 



International Ice Patrol tornnally 
begins its seasonal ice observation and Ice 
Patrol service when icebergs threaten 
primary shipping routes between Europe 
and North America. This usually occurs in 
February and extends through July, but Ice 
Patrol commences operations when 
iceberg conditions dictate. Except during 
unusually heavy ice years, the Grand 
Banks ot Newfoundland are normally 
iceberg free from August through January. 

International Ice Patrol actively 
monitors the iceberg danger to 
transatlantic shipping in the region 
bounded by 40°N, 52°N, 39°W, and 57°W 
(Figure 1). Ice Patrol began issuing weekly 
products on 14 February 2003. 
Commander, International Ice Patrol 
opened the season on 24 March 2003 and 
daily products were distributed through the 



close of the season on 17 July 2003. Note: 
All of the statistics reported in this 
summary are from the time frame 
mentioned above (14 February through 17 
July 2003). 

International Ice Patrol's Operations 
Center in Groton, Connecticut analyzed 
1,708 information reports from IIP IRDs, 
merchant vessels, the Canadian 
Government, the National Ice Center, and 
other sources (Figure 2). Of these reports, 
425 contained ice information (Figure 3). 
These ice reports potentially contained 
single or multiple iceberg sightings, 
stationary radar targets, and sea ice 
information. From these reports, 2,454 
individual targets were merged into the Ice 
Patrol's modeling system (BAPS). Figure 
4 highlights the reporting source of 
sightings merged into BAPS. 



Labrador 




Figure 1. HP's operating area. T indicates location of TITANIC sink 



ing 





IIP 


NIC 


Canadian 


2% 


<1% 


Government 






8% ^rr 


V 


«. 



Other 

<1% 



Unknown 

<1% 




Merchant 

Vessels 

89% 

Figure 2. Reporting sources of the 1 ,708 information 
reports received at Ice Patrol during 2003. Information 
reports include ice, SST, and weather reports. 



Information Reports 

Voluntary reports were requested 
from all ships transiting the Grand Banks 
region. As in previous years, ships were 
asked to report ice sightings, weather, and 
sea surface temperatures via Canadian 
Coast Guard Radio Station St. John's/ 
VON, U. S. Coast Guard Communications 
Area Master Station Atlantic/NMF or 
Inmarsat-C or Inmarsat-A using code 42. 
Ships were encouraged to make ice 
reports even if "no ice" was sighted, as 
knowledge of the lack of ice is also 
fundamental to accurate product 
generation for the mariner. The continued 
success and viability of the International 
Ice Patrol depends heavily upon all 
contributors of ice reports. 



Merchant shipping provided the vast 
majority of reports received by IIP. In 
2003, 247 ships from 39 different countries 
provided IIP with 1,512 or 89% of total 
reports. This demonstrated that the 
number of nations that used IIP services 
exceeded the 17 member nations that 
supported IIP under SOLAS. Furthermore, 
the international merchant fleet's high level 
of participation indicated the value placed 
on IIP products and services. In 2003, the 
merchant vessel that provided the most 
reports was BERGE NORD (NonA/ay), 
submitting 70 separate reports. Appendix 
B lists all ships that provided information 
reports, including weather, ice, stationary 
radar target, and sea surface temperature 
reports. While the vast majority of 
information reports were received from 
merchant shipping, IIP received valuable 
information from other sources as well. 
For example, the Canadian Government, 
which included reports from the CIS 
reconnaissance airplane, contract 
reconnaissance flights by Provincial 
Airlines, HMCS vessels, CCG vessels, and 
even coastal lighthouses, provided 150 or 
8% of the information reports received by 
IIP. Figure 2 provides a thorough 
breakdown of the sources for all 
information reports handled during 2003. 

Ice Reports 




Canadian 

Govern m ent 

30% 



M erchant 

Vessels 

59% 



Figure 3. Reporting sources of the 425 ice reports 
received during 2003. Ice reports include individual 
iceberg sightings and stationary radar target information. 



Only a portion of the total reports 
sent to IIP contained ice information; 
specifically, 425 of the 1,708 information 
reports contained data on icebergs. 
Similar to information reports, the merchant 
fleet provided the greatest number of ice 
reports (59%) and the Canadian 
Government 30%. The remaining 11% of 
ice reports were received from IIP 
reconnaissance, the National Ice Center, 
and other resources. Refer to Figure 3 for 
a breakdown of ice report sources. 




Canadian 

Government 

66% 



Merchant 
Vessels 

4% 

Figure 4. Reporting sources of the 2,454 individual 
targets merged into BAPS during 2003. 

Merged Targets 

The 425 ice reports received by IIP 
contained 2,454 targets that were merged 
into the drift and deterioration modeling 
system operated jointly between CIS and 
IIP (BAPS). The source responsible for 
reporting the most targets that were 
merged into HP's BAPS model was the 
Canadian Government with 66%. BAPS 
transferred targets accounted for 16% of 
the targets in MP's model. These targets 
were originally sighted north of HP's AOR 
and then were passed to HP's model when 
they drifted south of 52°N. The 
configuration of the BAPS model makes 
determining the original sources for targets 
of this type extremely cumbersome. 
Consequently, no attempts were made to 
determine the original sighting source of 
targets transferred to IIP via BAPS; so for 
statistical purposes BAPS did not submit 
reports to IIP and was not noted in Figures 
2 or 3. IIP accounted for 14% of merged 
targets, merchant vessels 4% and the 
National Ice Center less than 1% (Figure 4). 

LAKI Iceberg Sightings 

Since IIP is mandated by SOLAS to 
guard the Southeast, South, and 
Southwest regions of the Grand Banks, IIP 
closely monitors those icebergs that set the 
limits. Additionally, IIP spends the majority 
of its resources in searching for the 



icebergs that are the most seaward. 
Therefore, the initial sighting source for 
icebergs that determine the LAKI is very 
interesting. IIP detected 60% of LAKI 
icebergs (Figure 5) and the Canadian 
government reported 11%. However, IIP 
also benefited significantly from the 
participation of ships of opportunity and 
from MP's partnership with the National Ice 
Center. The merchant shipping industry 
was the original reporting source of 23% of 
LAKI icebergs and NIC reported another 
4%. Finally, BAPS model transfers 
between IIP and the Canadian Ice Service 
accounted for 2% of LAKI icebergs. 



Canadian 


NIC 


BAPS 




Government 

1 1 %_, 


4% 


2% 


IIP 

60% 




Figure 5. Initial reporting sources of LAKI 
determining icebergs during the 2003 season. 



IIP Broadcasts/Products 

For the second year, since the 
changes to SOLAS, ships were required to 
make use of International Ice Patrol 
services while in the IIP AOR. Throughout 
the iceberg season, IIP produced two 
products a day (OOOOZ and 1200Z) and 
distributed them by a wide variety of 
methods. Vessels received text ice 
bulletins at OOOOZ and 1200Z daily to 
inform them of the Limit of All Known Ice. 
U. S. Coast Guard Communications Area 
Master Station Atlantic/NMF and Canadian 
Coast Guard Marine Communications and 
Traffic Service St. John'sA/ON were the 
primary radio stations responsible for the 
dissemination of ice bulletins. In addition, 
ice bulletins and safety broadcasts were 
delivered over the Inmarsat-C SafetyNET 



via the Atlantic East and West satellites. 
Another transmitting station for the 
bulletins was the Marine Communications 
and Traffic Services St. AnthonyA/CM. IIP 
also prepared an ice chart depicting the 
1200Z Limit of All Known Ice for broadcast 
at 1600Z and 1810Z daily. U. S. Coast 
Guard Communications Area Master 
Station Atlantic/NMF and the National 
Weather Service assisted with the 
transmission of the ice chart. On the 
eastern side of the Atlantic, the German 
Federal Maritime and Hydrographic 
Agency stations Hamburg/DDH and 
Pinneberg/DDK transmitted MP's ice chart. 
Finally, both the bulletin and chart were 
placed on HP's website. The ice chart was 
also made available via plain paper 
facsimile and e-mail on demand. 

IIP transmitted 232 scheduled ice 
bulletins in 2003. IIP measured the quality 
and timeliness of the bulletins delivered to 
the mariner via the SafetyNET service, as 
this is the primary product for HP's largest 
customer base. Of 232 total bulletins sent, 
230 (99%) arrived at the system on time, or 
by OOOOZ or 1200Z, respectively. The late 
deliveries were due primarily to minor 
technical difficulties in sending the product 
through HP's commercial INMARSAT 
provider. 

In 2003, IIP produced 116 Ice charts 
that were distributed via HF radiofacsimile, 
e-mail on demand, and published on the 
WWW. Of these, 105 (91%) were delivered 
on time. Late ice charts were defined as 
those for which the radio frequency start 
tone began more than one minute later 
than the scheduled transmission time 
(1600Z or 1810Z). The primary cause of 
late ice charts was difficulty getting the 
signal from IIP through the line to 
CAMSLANT. 



Safety Broadcasts 

IIP sent 20 unscheduled safety 
broadcasts during the 2003 season for 29 
iceberg or stationary radar target sightings 
near or outside the published LAKI. Of 
these 29 targets, 1 1 were icebergs 
reported outside the published LAKI, 4 
were icebergs inside but near the LAKI, 
and the remaining 14 detailed stationary 
radar targets. 

Historical Perspective 

To compare ice years in a historical 
perspective, IIP uses two different 
measurements. The first is the season's 
length in days (Figure 6). The second is 
the number of icebergs south of 48°N 
(Figure 7). This measurement includes 
both icebergs detected south of 48°N and 
those that were originally detected north of 



2003 
2002 



S 2001 



2000 E 
1 999 



^1 










w^ 






^M 6 


T^ 








i—^. 






' -^f 1 4 / 










t 





%■ 








.^myill^ o;^ 


$\° 




1 




^ 


-^' 


^ 


y' 


^ 



50 



1 00 
Days 



1 50 



200 



Figure 6. Length of ice season in days since 1999. 
The climatological (three year) mean is 120 days. 





2003 
2002 
2001 
2000 
1999 


---T 










E^ 






• '3P92/ 














f 






^8// 


n 

>■ 


^^89 


' 


1 


1 




r"- 


'"'nUff^'i'' ;: 


■; 


■"|343 




022 


1 








y y 


/ 


y' 


y' y 



200 400 600 800 1000 

Icebergs 

Figure 7. Count of individual icebergs (sighted and 
drifted) south of 48°N since 1999. The climatological 
(three year) mean is 631 icebergs. 



48°N but were later predicted to have 
drifted south of 48°N. The 2003 season 
lasted for 116 days and saw 927 individual 
icebergs south of 48°N. The icebergs 
south of 48°N measurement is generally 
preferred by IIP because it places the 
emphasis on icebergs that represent a 
significant hazard to transatlantic shipping. 
Season length is coupled with the number 
of icebergs south of 48°N as Commander, 
International Ice Patrol considers the 
overall iceberg population and dates for the 
opening and closing of the ice season. 

In the effort to classify ice season 
severity, various authors have discussed 
the appropriate measurements and criteria 
(Alfultis, 1987; Trivers, 1994; and Marko, et 
al., 1994). Comparing 2003 to the past five 
years and measuring the statistics against 
historical ice patrol data, 2003 was 
moderate in terms of season length and 
extreme in terms of the number of icebergs 
south of 48°N. Trivers (1994) defined an 
extreme ice season as one where more 
than 600 icebergs drifted south of 48°N. 
Trivers also defined a moderate season, in 
terms of length, as one between 105 and 
180 days. 

Canadian Support 

The Canadian Government provided 
a great deal of support during the 2003 
season, as they do every year. CIS 
conducted ice reconnaissance using a 
SLAR equipped Dash-7 airplane, focusing 
primarily on sea ice. Provincial Airlines is 
a private company that provided 
reconnaissance services on contract to 
DFO throughout the year, to CIS from June 
through December and to the offshore oil 



industry. DFO flights by Provincial Airlines 
monitored fishing vessel activity and 
frequently carried them into areas of high 
iceberg concentrations. Canadian support 
of BAPS was also an integral part of MP's 
operations. The models are connected via 
the internet and "speak" to each other 
numerous times each day. For example, 
CIS retrieves environmental data (waves, 
currents, sea surface temperatures, etc.) 
that reside on HP's BAPS. IIP received 
data on icebergs crossing into our AOR in 
a similar method. 

Ongoing Research 

In an effort to continuously improve 
through the use of technology, IIP 
participated in the Global Monitoring for 
Environment and Security (GMES) 
program, which was sponsored by the 
European Space Agency. liP was an end 
user of ice products from the Northern 
View team, which was led by C-CORE. 
Envisat and Radarsat images were 
analyzed by the C-CORE iceberg/ship 
detection algorithm and the location of the 
targets were sent to IIP in MANICE code, 
approximately 4-5 hours after image 
acquisition. The C-CORE algorithm 
detected hard targets in the satellite 
imagery and distinguished ships from 
icebergs. IIP received data from 45 
Envisat and Radarsat MANICE messages 
from May l" through July 1l'^ 2003. 
Ongoing analysis is taking place to 
evaluate the algorithm by comparing the 
MANICE messages received from C- 
CORE, with iceberg information from HP's 
BAPS system. Ice Patrol hopes to 
continue its participation in GMES during 
the 2004 iceberg season. 



References 

Alfultis, M. 1987. Iceberg Populations South of 48°N Since 1900. Appendix B in Report 
of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1987 Season, Bulletin No. 73, 
CG-1 88-42, 63-67. 

Marko, J. R., D. B. Fissel, P. Wadhams, P. M. Kelly and R. D. Brown, 1994. Iceberg 
Severity off Eastern North America: Its Relationship to Sea Ice Variability and 
Climate Change. J. Climate, 7, 1335-1351. 

Trivers, G., 1994. International Ice Patrol's Iceberg Season Severity. Appendix C in 
Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, 1994 Season, Bulletin 
No. 80, CG-1 88-49, 49-59 



Iceberg Reconnaissance & Oceanographic Operations 



Iceberg Reconnaissance 

The Ice Reconnaissance 

Detachment is a sub-unit under 
Commander, International Ice Patrol 
partnered with Coast Guard Air Station 
Elizabeth City who provided the aircraft 
platform. IRDs were deployed to observe 
and report sea ice, iceberg and 
oceanographic conditions on the Grand 
Banks of Newfoundland. Oceanographic 
observations were used in support of 
operations as well as for research 
purposes. 

Ice Patrol's pre-season IRD 
departed on 21 January 2003 to determine 
the early season iceberg distribution. The 
iceberg distribution noted during the pre- 
season IRD did not initially warrant regular 
(every other week) deployments to 
Newfoundland. Subsequently, only one 
IRD was deployed during the six weeks 
from the end of the pre-season until regular 
deployments were started on 19 March 
2003. Regular IRDs operated from St. 
John's, Newfoundland until 13 July 2003. 
An average of four 
reconnaissance flights were 
made during each IRD. 
Iceberg reconnaissance 
operations concluded with 
the return of the post- 
season IRD on 5 September 
2003. 



Coast Guard aircraft 
were the primary means of 
detecting icebergs that form 
the Limit of All Known Ice. 
IIP utilized a Coast Guard 
HC-130H long-range aircraft 
equipped with the Motorola 
AN/APS-135 Side-Looking 
Airborne Radar and the 



Texas Instruments AN/APS-137 Forward- 
Looking Airborne Radar to conduct iceberg 
reconnaissance. IIP has used SLAR since 
1983, incorporated the Maritime 
Surveillance System (MSS) 5000 to SLAR 
in 2000, and has used FLAR since 1993. 

Environmental conditions on the 
Grand Banks permitted adequate visibility 
only 30% of the time during iceberg 
reconnaissance operations. Consequently, 
IIP relied heavily on its two airborne radar 
systems to detect and identify icebergs 
through cloudy and foggy conditions. The 
radar combination of SLAR and FLAR 
allowed detection and identification of 
icebergs in pervasive low visibility 
conditions minimizing the flight hours 
required to accurately determine the LAKI. 
The radar combination allowed IIP to use 
30 NM track spacing throughout the 
season. The HC-130H with SLAR and 
FLAR facilitated coverage of a large ocean 
area while providing 200% radar coverage 
(Figure 8). IIP can currently cover 40,000 
NM^ at 30 NM track spacing in any visibility 
conditions. A detailed description of MP's 



FLAR & SLAR Radar Coverage 




SLAR 



30 NM track spacing provides 200% radar coverage of search area 



30 NM 
Track Spacing 



Drawing is not to scale 



Figure 8. Radar reconnaissance plan. 



10 



reconnaissance strategy is provided at 

http://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/FAQ/Reco 

nnOp_10.shtml. 

An IRD was deployed to MP's base 
of operations in St. John's, Newfoundland 
for 94 days during the 2003 season (Table 
1). IIP flew 70 sorties, 28 of which were 
transit flights to and from St. John's. 
Thirty-eight sorties were iceberg 
reconnaissance patrols to determine the 
southwestern, southern and southeastern 
LAKI. No research sorties were flown in 
2003. Four sorties were logistics flights 
from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth 
City to maintain and repair the aircraft. 
Figure 9 details IIP flight hours for 2003. 



Logistics 
Hours 

5% 



.p.. Deployed Iceberg Flight 
Days Patrols Hours 


Pre 


9 1 18.0 


1 


Cancelled 


2 


9 


4 


27.2 


3 


Cancelled 


4 


8 


3 


28.2 


5 


9 


3 


42.7 


6 


8 


4 


38.0 


7 


8 


4 


39.2 


8 


9 


5 


52.9 


9 


9 


4 


27.9 


10 


8 


4 


39.1 


11 


7 


4 


40.6 


12 


5 


2 


22.7 


Post 


5 





9.3 


Total 


94 


38 


385.8 



Table 1. 2003 IRD summary. 

NOTE: Flight hours include patrol and transit hours. 

IRD#5 includes 10 and IRD#8 includes 9.9 logistic hours. 



IIP used 385.8 flight hours in 
2003, a 19% decrease from 2002 (Figure 
10). This decrease was partially due to the 
addition of a patrol decision guide to aid 
the Tactical Commander. The patrol 
decision guide, using a point system, 
placed a given patrol into a 
green/amber/red model based on aircraft 
condition, environmental conditions and 




Figure 9. 2003 flight hours. 

patrol area priority. This tool was designed 
to improve flight hour efficiency (i.e., 
ensure patrol results were the best 
possible). Figure 11 compares flight hours 
with the number of icebergs south of 48°N 
latitude since 1988. This figure 
demonstrates that IIP expends a fairly 
consistent number of flight hours while the 
number of icebergs varies significantly. A 
few icebergs can dramatically extend the 
geographic distribution of the LAKI even 
with a small number of icebergs passing 
south of 48°N. IIP is often in the position of 
having to patrol a large ocean area with 
widely distributed icebergs. 

Differentiating the various types of 
targets on the Grand Banks is a continuous 
challenge for IIP reconnaissance. Visibility 
is frequently poor and targets are often 
identified solely from their radar image. 
Both SLAR and FLAR provide valuable 



700 


y 




600 




■ 








5 


500 




J 


^ 






400 












1 




300 


^„ 


H 




w 


200 
100 


B B 


— 


1 




1 


999 2000 2001 2002 2003 






■ Patrol Hours BTransit Hours 
□ Research Hours BLogistics Hours 



Figure 10. Breakdown of flight hours (1999-2003). 



11 



clues about the identity of targets. 
However, FLAR's superior imaging 
capability provides definitive target 
identification in nnost cases. Figure 12 
displays the number and types of targets 
detected by reconnaissance patrols during 
the 2003 season. A total of 728 icebergs 
were detected by IRDs, 36% (264) were 
identified with radar alone (i.e., were never 
seen visually) while the remaining 64% 
(464) were identified using a combination 
of visual and radar information or by visual 
means alone. These data demonstrate 
HP's reliance on radar information. 
Determining whether a radar target is an 
iceberg or a vessel is difficult with small 
vessels and small icebergs. The Grand 
Banks is a major fishing area frequented 
by fishing vessels ranging in size from 60 
to over 200 feet. Small vessels and small 
icebergs sometimes present similar radar 
returns and cannot be differentiated. 
When there are no clear distinguishing 
features, a target is classified as a radar 
target. 

Since 1997, the Grand Banks region 
has been rapidly developed for its oil 
reserves. In November 1997, Hibernia, a 
gravity-based oil production platform, was 
set in position approximately 150 NM 
offshore on the northeastern portion of the 
Grand Banks. Each year, there are 



Ships 
886, 



2500 



2000 



1500 



1000 



SCO 




o ^ in to 
0> Oi Oi o> 
Oi Oi Oi Oi 


O) 


OO 0> O >- CM 

o> O) o o o 
a> OI o o o 


*" 


■■Hours 




^^Icebergs 



Radar 



^ 


\ 

Icebergs 

728 

/ 


Radar & 

Visual 

392 




Radar 


/ 


/ 


Only 


y 




264 


w 


Visual 



72 



idiijma Growlers 

97 PR 

Figure 12. Breakdown of targets detected by IRDs in 2003. 



Figure 11. Flight hours versus icebergs south of 
48°N (1993-2003). 



several mobile drilling rigs in the Terra 
Nova and White Rose drilling fields on the 
Grand Banks. Increased development has 
increased air and surface traffic in MP's 
area of responsibility, further complicating 
reconnaissance efforts. 

Oceanographic Operations 

Historically, IIP conducted extensive 
oceanographic surveys on the Grand 
Banks. Oceanographic operations peaked 
in the 1960's when the U. S. Coast Guard 
devoted substantial surface ship resources 
to collecting oceanographic data. Two 
factors combined to change the nature of 
HP's oceanographic operations. First, 
increased competition among the various 
U. S. Coast Guard missions made it 
increasingly difficult for IIP to obtain ship 
resources. Second, there was a vast 
improvement in the capability and reliability 
of deployable oceanographic instruments. 

IIP collected oceanographic data 
with air or ship-deployed satellite-tracked 
drifting buoys and Air-deployed 
expendable BathyThermograph probes. 
AXBT probes were dropped to determine 
the water temperature profile. This 
information helped IIP determine the 
location of the Labrador Current, validate 
temperatures from satellite-tracked drifting 
buoys, and obtain precise SST 
measurements for numerical models. 
Figure 13 displays AXBT drop locations 



12 




Figure 13. AXBT drop locations. 

during the 2003 season. IIP dropped 30 
AXBT probes and collected data from 25 of 
the drops for a failure rate of 16.6%. 
Figure 14 describes the development of 
HP's AXBT program since 1999\ The 
marked reduction in AXBT drops during 
2003 can be attributed to a change in 
AXBT drop policy that occurred following 
the 2002 season in an attempt to eliminate 
drops that interfered with the flight plan or 
othenwise reduced the effectiveness of the 
reconnaissance. 

AXBT information was coded into a 
standard format and shared with the 

140 
120 
100 



CQ 




80 
60 
40 
20 



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 
i^i^AXBTs • Failure rate 

Figure 14. AXBT drops and failure rate (1999-2003). 



' 1999 is used as the base year for these data because of 
the implementation of a new AXBT receiver system 
during that year. Software upgrades, planned for 
completion in 2004, are expected to further reduce 
failures. 



Canadian Maritime Atlantic Command 
Meteorological and Oceanographic Center, 
HP's supplier of AXBT probes. Data was 
also sent to the U. S. Naval Fleet 
Numerical Meteorological and 

Oceanographic Center where it was quality 
controlled and redistributed via 
oceanographic products. 

Satellite-tracked drifting buoys, 
popularly known as WOCE buoys, were 
drogued at a depth of 15 or 50 meters and 
provided near real-time ocean current 
information. For operational use by IIP, 
WOCE buoys were deployed primarily in 
the inshore and offshore branches of the 
Labrador Current. The historical current 
database used by HP's computer model 
was modified weekly using information 
from these drifting buoys. The 2003 
iceberg season proved especially 
challenging in terms of current variability at 
the southern end of the Grand Banks and 
in the vicinity of the Flemish Cap, 
demonstrating HP's requirement for this 
valuable information. 

During the 2003 season, IIP 
deployed ten satellite-tracked drifting 
buoys, four from reconnaissance aircraft 
and six from volunteer ships. Figure 15 
displays composite drift tracks for the 
buoys deployed in 2003. Figure 16 
displays the shift from aircraft deployments 
to ship deployments over the last few 
seasons. Ship deployments are less costly 
and less traumatic to the buoy than aircraft 
deployments. IIP intends to maintain the 
capability to deploy buoys from aircraft, 
primarily for early season deployments to 
the north and isolated required 
deployments during the season. No buoy 
recoveries were planned or attempted in 
2003. Detailed drifter information is 
provided in HP's 2003 WOCE Buoy Drift 
Track Atlas (available from IIP upon 
request). 



13 



A Compact Air Launched Ice 
Beacon (CALIB) was deployed on a very 
large tabular iceberg in early May during a 
reconnaissance patrol. The CALIB 
provided 13 days of satellite tracking 
information. The iceberg drift information 
provided by the CALIB will be used for 
testing the current and future versions of 
BAPS. Please refer to Appendix D for full 
details of the CALIB drop and preliminary 
research. 




1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 

■ Air aShipj 



Figure 16. WOCE buoy deployments (1999-2003). 



srN 



48°N -' 




45"N 



42''N 



39°N 



54°W 



48°W 



42°W 



36^ 



30°W 



Figure 15. 2003 satellite-tracked drifting buoy tracks. Red stars indicate point of entry. 



14 



Ice and Environmental Conditions 



Introduction 

For the second year in a row, large 
numbers of icebergs entered the North 
Atlantic Ocean shipping lanes near the 
Grand Banks of Newfoundland (Figure 17), 
with an estimated 927 icebergs passing 
south of 48°N. This section describes 
progression of the 2003 ice season and the 
environmental conditions it accompanied. 

The IIP ice year extends from 
October through September. The following 
month by month narrative begins as sea 
ice began forming along the Labrador 
coast in early December 2002, and 
concludes in mid July 2003 with the closing 



of the MP's iceberg season. The narrative 
draws from several sources, including the 
Seasonal Summary for Eastern Canadian 
Waters, Winter 2002-2003 (Canadian Ice 
Service, 2003); sea ice analyses provided 
by CIS and NIC; and sea surface 
temperature anomaly plots provided by the 
U. S. National Weather Service's Climate 
Prediction Center (Climate Prediction 
Center, 2004); and, finally, summaries of 
the iceberg data collected by IIP and CIS. 
The plots on pages 31 to 40 document the 
LAKI twice a month (the 15th and last day 
of each month) for the duration of the ice 
season. In addition, the LAKI for the 
opening (24 March) and closing (17 July) 
days of the season are presented. 







61-0tI*W n56-00'W 051-00'W 046-00"W 041-00'W 036 



Hamilton Inlfct^^' •i^*-^ 



052-00"N- 



{iJa-oo'N- 

jjy4-00"N 



LABRADOR •! 



./Q' 



# 






Jl^ 

iHSt. Anthony 



7C 



r * ^w^^'^ape Fre els 

^dEWFOUr IDLArv^i. pape B 



i^P 



040-00'N- 



Dnavista 






GRAND 



Dhn's 



BANKS 



Flemish 
Pass 



FLEMISH 
CAP 



Kev to Ocean Deoth 



LAND 
- 200m 
200 -1,000m 
1,000- 4,000m 
> 4,000m 



Figure 17. Grand banks of Newfoundland. 



15 



The progress of the 2002-2003 
season is compared to sea ice and iceberg 
observations from the historical record. 
This places the season in perspective and 
helps to understand the variability of the 
ice distribution in the western north 
Atlantic. The sea ice historical data are 
derived from the Sea Ice Climatic Atlas, 
East Coast of Canada, 1971-2000 
(Canadian Ice Service, 2001), which 
provides a 30 year median of ice 
concentration at seven day intervals for the 
period from November 26 through July 16. 
Historical iceberg information is derived 
from Viekman and Baumer (1995), who 
present iceberg limit climatology from mid- 
March to July 30 based on 21 years of Ice 
Patrol observations from 1975 through 
1995. They provide the extreme, median, 
and minimum extent of the LAKI for the 
period. Finally, the average number of 
icebergs estimated to have drifted south of 
48°N for each month was calculated using 
103 years (1900 through 2002) of Ice 
Patrol records (IIP, 2004). 

The pre-season sea ice forecast 
(Canadian Ice Service, 2002), which was 
issued in early December, predicted: 

• near normal freeze-up along 
the Labrador coast and in 
east Newfoundland waters, 

• movement of the southern ice 
edge into the Strait of Belle 
Isle during the first week of 
January 2003, 

• sea ice would reach Cape 
Bonavista during the first 
week of February, 

• maximum extent of the sea 
ice attained during the third 
week of March, with the ice 
edge approximately at the 
latitude of St. John's for most 
of the month, 



• likely intrusions of the sea ice 
to 47°W at the latitude of St. 
John's, 

• sea ice retreat beginning 
during the last week of the 
month and proceeding at a 
normal rate. 

A series of five CIS reconnaissance flights 
conducted in late September through early 
October 2002 documented a population of 
646 icebergs and radar targets from 61 °N 
to 70°N, with the highest concentration 
between 64°N and 65°N (Desjardins, 
2002). Desjardins (2002) predicted that 
the first of these would reach 48°N during 
early February 2003. 

December 2002 

Early in December, sea ice 
conditions in northern Labrador were near 
normal. The ice edge was immediately to 
the north of Cape Chidley, the 
northernmost point in Labrador, and ice 
had begun to form in the bays and along 
the coast. Ice continued to develop along 
the northern coast in early December, but 
by mid month it was a few days behind 
normal. The second half of December 
witnessed much warmer than normal air 
temperatures in southern Labrador and 
northern Newfoundland. Although ice 
continued to develop along the Labrador 
coast, the eastward extent was much less 
than normal. The elevated temperatures 
also delayed the movement of the southern 
ice edge into the Strait of Belle Isle by 
about a week. Mean December SSTs 
were near normal off the southern 
Labrador coast and on the northeast 
Newfoundland Shelf. At month's end, the 
Strait of Belle Isle was free of sea ice. No 
icebergs passed south of 48°N during 
December. 



16 



January 2003 

During a normal January, the sea 
ice edge moves southward from Cape 
Bauld, near the entrance to the Strait of 
Belle Isle, to Cape Freels. a distance of 
150 NM. January 2003 was far from 
normal. 

The southern ice edge moved into 
the Strait of Belle Isle during the first week 
of January as predicted by Canadian Ice 
Service (2002). Throughout the first half of 
the month, northern Newfoundland and the 
southern Labrador coast experienced 
higher than normal air temperatures, while 
southern Newfoundland was close to 
normal. By mid month, the ice edge 
reached southward to about 20 NM south 
of St. Anthony and eastward approximately 
50 NM east of the Northern Arm of 
Newfoundland. Both the southern and 
eastern extent were about a week to 10 
days behind normal in their development. 

After mid-month, the southern ice 
edge progressed slowly, but persistently, 
southward along the Northern Arm, but 
extending only about 60 NM offshore. At 
the same time, a large, blocking high- 
pressure system was settling into the 
central north Atlantic. Its presence altered 
the north Atlantic storm track, setting the 
stage for the passage of a series of intense 
low-pressure systems over Newfoundland. 
During the third week of January, three 
blizzards dropped nearly a meter of snow 
on St. John's. In all, January 2003 tied 
1960 as the snowiest January on St. 
John's record. The storms brought strong 
southerly winds to northeast Newfoundland 
waters, resulting in widespread ice 
destruction and much warmer than normal 
air temperatures, a combination that 
precipitated a rapid retreat of the southern 
ice edge. January ended with the southern 
sea ice edge barely extending into the 
Strait of Belle Isle. In the last 35 years, 



only 1969 and 1979 have had a lower ice 
extent at the end of January than that of 
2003 (Canadian Ice Service, 2003). 

IIP deployed its pre-season Ice 
Reconnaissance Detachment (IRD) to 
Newfoundland on 23 January. The intent 
of the IRD was to monitor the progress of 
the icebergs toward the Grand Banks and 
help determine the start date for the 2003 
season. A single reconnaissance flight 
over the sea ice free waters of the offshore 
branch of the Labrador Current between 
49°N and 52°N found no icebergs. During 
January, no icebergs passed south of 
48°N; the average for the month is 3. On 
13 January 2003, the Canadian Coast 
Guard advised mariners that the Strait of 
Belle Isle was not recommended for 
transatlantic shipping due to sea ice 
conditions. 

February 

February was a month of dramatic 
change for both the air temperatures in 
Newfoundland and the sea ice extent in the 
waters east of the island. The first ten 
days were much warmer than normal in 
northern Newfoundland and southern 
Labrador. The change began early in the 
second week of February, when the 
blocking high in the central north Atlantic 
moved southward and the Icelandic low 
strengthened. This brought cold arctic air 
to Newfoundland and southern Labrador, a 
condition that would persist for the next six 
weeks. Colder to much colder than normal 
conditions supported a rapid expansion of 
the sea ice extent. Near mid-month, the 
southern ice edge reached Cape 
Bonavista, about a week later than 
predicted (Canadian Ice Service, 2002). 
During the first 19 days of February, the 
southern ice extent moved from the vicinity 
of the Strait of Belle Isle to Cape St. 
Francis, the northern tip of the Avalon 
Peninsula, a distance of 240 NM in the 



17 



north-south direction. Put another way, the 
February sea ice extent went from well 
below normal at the start of the month to 
normal conditions by month's end. 

No icebergs passed south of 48°N 
during February; the average for the month 
is 15. 

March 

Colder to much colder-than-normal 
conditions in Newfoundland and Labrador 



The passage of two potent low 
pressure systems during the 27-30 March 
period brought strong offshore winds that 
pushed the sea ice eastward creating a 
wide shore lead. Throughout this period, 
the ice stream in the Labrador Current 
continued to extend further south, and by 
month's end its southern extent was at 
44°40'N. 

Five reconnaissance flights, three 
by IIP in late February and two by CIS in 
early March, found a small iceberg 

persisted during the first three weeks of population between 48°N and 56°N, mostly 

March, resulting in unabated sea ice located within the sea ice edge (Figure 19). 

expansion during the period. The sea-ice 

extent was near normal on 12 



March, with the southern 
extent immediately to the 
south of St. John's, and the 
eastern edge near the 
northern entrance to Flemish 
Pass. As predicted by the 
Canadian Ice Service (2002), 
the sea ice attained its 
greatest areal extent for 2003 
by the end of the third week of 
March. On 19 March, the 
eastern extent was in the 
offshore branch of the 
Labrador Current well into 
Flemish Pass, while the 
southernmost extent was 60 



NM south of Cape Race. In 
both cases, the ice edge 
position was far beyond 
normal and the pre-season 
prediction. Figure 18 is a 
natural color image from 
MODIS, an instrument flown 
on NASA's Terra satellite, 
taken on 20 March 2003. In 
the last week of March, the 
sea ice began to retreat with 
the exception of a narrow 
stream of ice in the cold water 
of the offshore branch of the 
Labrador Current. 




Figure 18. MODIS image from 20 March 2003 at 1455Z showing 
the ice edge at its maximum extent for 2003. Image courtesy of 
MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. 



18 




Figure 19. Iceberg distribution on March 4, 2003 from the iceberg analysis issued by the CIS. There 
are about 1 10 icebergs and radar targets shown on this plot, most within the sea-ice edge. 



When IIP formally opened the 2003 
season on 24 March, both the southern 
and eastern LAKI (page 31) were between 
the 75'^ percentile and the nnedian 
according to Viekman and Baumer's 
iceberg climatology classification (Viekman 
and Baumer, 1995). As is common in the 
beginning of an iceberg season, most of 
the icebergs were within sea ice, so the 
LAKI was defined primarily by the location 
of the sea ice edge. Throughout the last 
week of March the southern LAKI stretched 
rapidly southward, as both the sea ice and 
icebergs within it moved under the 
influence of the Labrador Current. By 
month's end, the southern LAKI position 
was between the median and the 25"" 
percentile while the eastern limit was 
between the 75'^ percentile and the 
median. 



During March, an estimated 84 
icebergs drifted south of 48°N, which is 
above the month's average of 61 . 

April 

Persistent offshore winds kept the 
main ice pack offshore for the entire 
month, but the retreat was slowed 
somewhat owing to colder than normal air 
temperatures in Newfoundland and 
southern Labrador during the first three 
weeks. Indeed, sea ice persisted in the 
northern reaches of Flemish Pass until the 
last few days of April. By month's end, the 
southern sea ice extent was at the latitude 
of Cape Freels, about 40 NM south of its 
normal position for the date. The eastern 
extent was about 100 NM east of its 
normal position due to the persistent 
offshore winds. 



19 



The LAKI continued to expand in 
early April, and by mid month (page 33) the 
southern limit was between the 25th 
percentile and the extreme and the east 
was between the median and the 25th 
percentile. For the remainder of April the 
LAKI remained in approximately the same 
position, with the southern LAKI position 
near the 25th percentile and the eastern 
limit at the median. 

The easternmost estimated iceberg 
position for the year was at 45°08.4' N and 
43°20.0' W on 19 April 2003. In April, 263 
icebergs passed south of 48°N, over twice 
the April monthly average of 121 icebergs. 

May 

With the exception of the third week, 
Newfoundland and southern Labrador 
experienced near normal air temperatures 
in May, resulting in a normal retreat of the 
sea ice (Canadian Ice Service, 2003). The 
anomalous temperatures in the third week 
were mixed with respect to location, with 
St. John's experiencing slightly lower than 
normal temperatures and northern 
Newfoundland and southern Labrador 
warmer than normal conditions. 

During the first week of the month, 
the offshore winds that prevailed in May 
continued, keeping the main ice pack well 
off shore. This changed dramatically in the 
middle of the month with the passage of a 
intense low pressure system on 11-13 
May. This storm brought strong (-35 kt) 
east winds to the region, packing the 
remaining ice against Newfoundland's 
Northern Arm and southern Labrador 
coast. By the last week of May, the 
southern ice edge had retreated to the 
Strait of Belle Isle, which is near normal. 

By mid May, the southern LAKI 
moved southward to a position between 
the 25th percentile and the extreme for the 



date, while the eastern limit remained near 
the median. Both the southern and eastern 
LAKI remained stable for the remainder of 
the month. Although the day to day 
numbers fluctuate somewhat due to 
reconnaissance and predicted iceberg 
melt, throughout most of May IIP was 
tracking a steady population of 
approximately 250 icebergs south of 48°N. 

On 5 May, the IIP reconnaissance 
airplane dropped a satellite-tracked beacon 
on a 250 m by 100 m fragment of an ice 
island located at 46°52.4' N, 47°56.6' W. 
The 1 3 day iceberg track was used to test 
HP's iceberg drift model (Appendix D). 

May was the busiest month of the 
2003 iceberg season with 494 icebergs 
estimated to have passed south of 48°N, 
over three times the monthly average of 
147. 

On 20 May, the easternmost iceberg 
seen during the 2003 ice season was 
found by IIP aerial reconnaissance at 
47°52.2' N, 44°40.0' W. May was also the 
month of the southernmost sighted and 
estimated icebergs, both for the same 
iceberg. On the 16th it was found at 
40°16.2' N and 49°36.0' W by a merchant 
vessel. Five days later, on the 21st, MP's 
drift model estimated it to have reached 
39°18.6' N and 48°47.4' W. 

June 

June was a month of remarkable 
change in the iceberg conditions of east 
Newfoundland waters. At the month's 
outset, there was no significant sea ice 
south of 52°N, and the southern ice edge 
had begun its northward retreat up the 
Labrador coast. Because of the absence 
of sea ice in the Strait of Belle Isle, it was 
again recommended for transatlantic 
vessels beginning on June 3, 2003, 
although there were numerous icebergs in 



20 



the eastern approaches and in the strait 
itself. The retreat of the sea ice edge was 
at a normal rate at first, but by mid month it 
was a week ahead of normal. 

The month began with a formidable 
iceberg population of nearly 250 icebergs 
south of 48°N. However, during the next 
two weeks, seasonal warming began to 
take its toll. By mid month, the southern 
LAKI retreated northward over 60 NM, and 
the eastern limits moved westward about 
70 NM. On 15 June, the southern limit was 
near the 25th percentile for the date, while 
the eastern limit was between the median 
and the 75th percentile (page 37). More 
importantly, the number of icebergs south 
of 48°N declined precipitously to fewer 
than 100 icebergs. During the second half 
of June this population declined even 
further, reaching 20 on 30 June. On this 
date there was one iceberg holding the 
southern LAKI at 42°N; however, the 
closest iceberg was nearly 240 NM to the 
north (page 38). The eastern LAKI at the 
time was between the 75th percentile and 
the median. 

In June, Ice Patrol estimated that 76 
icebergs passed south of 48°N, slightly 
below the monthly average of 85. 

July 

July brought Ice Patrol's 2003 ice 
season to its finish. On 1 July, there were 
22 icebergs and a single growler south of 
48°N, most of which were north of 46°N. 
The iceberg season closed on 17 July with 
nine icebergs between 47°N and 48°N and 
very few immediately to the north. When 
the ice season closed, the southern LAKI 
was between the minimum and the 75th 
percentile, while the eastern limit was at 
the 75th percentile. 



31. Ice Patrol's last 2003 ice 
reconnaissance detachment returned from 
Newfoundland on 13 July. Sea ice 
departed Labrador's coast by 6 July, about 
two weeks earlier than the norm. 

Summary 

With 927 icebergs estimated to have 
passed south of 48°N, the 2003 iceberg 
season falls into the extreme category 
(>600 icebergs) as defined by Trivers 
(1994). On the other hand, the 116-day 
season length places 2003 into the lower 
end of the average classification (105 to 
180 days). According to the NSSI 
proposed by Futch and Murphy (2002), the 
2003 index was 2.70, which places it in the 
moderate category. 

Icebergs arrived at 48°N in late 
February, but early season indications, 
such as the later than normal arrival of sea 
ice in east Newfoundland waters and the 
low early season iceberg counts, 
suggested 2003 would be a light to 
average iceberg season. The explosive 
sea ice growth in March (Figure 20) and 
the extraordinarily large iceberg counts in 
April and May changed this notion 
radically. Sea ice attained its maximum 
areal extent at the end of the third week of 
March, with the southern ice edge 
approximately 60 NM south of Cape Race 
and a narrow stream of ice in the offshore 
branch of the Labrador Current well into 
Flemish Pass, far south of its normal 
position. 

Despite the vast mid-March ice 
extent, the 2003 Total Accumulated Ice 
Coverage (CIS, 2003), calculated by 
summing the ocean area covered by sea 
ice for all the weeks of the season, was 
less than normal. 



Ten icebergs passed south of 48°N In many respects, 2003 was similar 

during July. The average for the month is to the 2002 iceberg season. In both years, 



21 



the number of icebergs estimated to have 
moved south of 48°N put the year in the 
extreme category, but, according to the 
length of season criterion, each year was 
classified as average. The NSSI for 2003 
was 2.70 while the 2002 index was 2.80; 
both in the moderate NSSI rating category. 
For brief periods, the southern LAKI during 
both years was south of 40°N. Both had 
winter (December through March) North 



Atlantic Oscillation Indices that were 
weakly positive, 0.20 in 2003 and 0.76 in 
2002 (Hurrell, 2004). There was one 
significant difference between the two 
years. For most of 2002, the eastern LAKI 
was farther east than normal, and during 
part of June was near the eastern extreme. 
On the other hand, the 2003 eastern limit 
hovered at or less than the median for the 
entire ice season. 



ZJOiQOO 



E 
& 

(0 

^ loaooo 

01 

fl) 

> 
o 
O 



■ ice ocverage 2002^ 
— normal ioe overage 

^^ S 


k 


^ I - 1 



CMOO»-CMP>0»-OJCMOi-i-OJO 
<-INOjrgCgCMr-i-t-t-CM<NCMOJC3 
f'-'-'-'-'-OOOOOOOOO 
CNCMC\JCM<N<NCOOr5COCO(OCOr5P5 

ooooooooooooooo 
ooooooooooooooo 

CMCgOJCMCgOJOJCgOJCNCMCNOJOJCa 



o 


I-- 


"J- 


T- 


h- 


t 


V- 


CO 


It) 






CJ 


n 


O 




rg 


CM 


o 


o 


n 


n 


r> 


T 






•a- 


m 


o 


o 


o 


o 


o 






o 






n 


n 


n 














o 


o 


o 












o 


o 


o 


o 


Q 


Q 


Q 


o 


Q 


eg 


eg 


CM 


(N 


(N 


(N 


OJ 


OJ 


CM 



Date 

Figure 20. Comparison of 2002/2003 weekly coverage of sea ice in East Newfoundland waters with 
normal. (Canadian Ice Service, 2003). 



22 



References 

Canadian Ice Service, 2000. Sea Ice Climatic Atlas. East Coast of Canada, 1971-2000. 
Canadian Ice Service, 373 Sussex Drive Block E-3, LaSalle Academy, Ottawa, 
ON, Canada K1A 0H3, 151 pp. 

Canadian Ice Service, 2002. Seasonal Outlook, Gulf of St. Lawrence and East 

Newfoundland Waters, Winter 2002-2003. Unpublished Manuscript, Canadian Ice 
Service, 373 Sussex Drive, E-3, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3, 21 pp. 

Canadian Ice Service, 2003. Seasonal Summary for Eastern Canadian Waters, Winter 
2002-2003. Unpublished Manuscript, Canadian Ice Service, 373 Sussex Drive, 
Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3, 18 pp. 

Climate Prediction Center, 2004. National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. 
http://www. cpc. ncep. noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/ecanada_ 
30temp.html (27 February 2004). 

Desjardins, Luc, 2002. Long Range Forecast 2002-2003 Ice/Iceberg Season. 
International Ice Patrol Annual Conference, 9 December 2002. 

Futch, V. and D. L. Murphy, 2002. Season Severity by Three Variable Index: LAKI Area, 
Length of Season, Iceberg Population below 48°N. Appendix E in: Report of the 
International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, Bulletin No. 88, 2002. 

Hurrell, J., 2003. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Indices Information. National Center 
for Atmospheric Research. 
http://www.cgd.ucar.edU/~jhurrell/nao.stat.winter.html#winter. (16 March 2004). 

International Ice Patrol, 2004. International Ice Patrol Iceberg Counts 1900 to 2003. 
http://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/General/icebergs.shtml (27 February 2004). 

Trivers, G., 1994. International Ice Patrol's Iceberg Season Severity. App. C in: Report 
of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic, Bulletin No. 80, 1994 Season, 
CG-1 88-49, International Ice Patrol, 1082 Shennecossett Road, Groton, CT 
06340-6096, 49-59. 

Viekman, B. E. and K. D. Baumer, 1995. International Ice Patrol Iceberg Limits 

Climatology (1975-1995), Technical Report 95-03, International Ice Patrol, 1082 
Shennecossett Road, Groton, CT 06340-6096, 20 pp. 



23 



Monthly Sea Ice Charts 



Canadian Ice Service 
Colour Code 

fee coverage in tenths 

fee Thicker Than 15 cm 






open or oergy waier 
(less Ihon l/lO) 

1 10 3/10 
4 to 6/10 
7 to 8/10 

9 to 10/10 

fast ice 
tani tec - 15 cm or less 
less than 10 cm (new ice) 

10 to 15 cm (grey ice> 












Pre 


domir 






* 


Ok 


f/ce 








1 10 4/10 
510 10/10 











Reprinted with permission of the Canadian Ice Service. 



24 




25 



CO-- 




ICE ANALYSIS 
ANALYSE DE GLACE 

NE Newfoundland Waters 
Eaux de Terre-Neuve Nord-Est 

V1800Z 

15^EB/FEy^003_ 

BASED ON/BASEE SUH: 

RECON: 
RADARSAT: NIL 

NOAA: 1 5 FEB/FEV 151 3Z 

NORTH OF/NORD DE 5100N 



CsnnaniiMTOUMQA 
aivwcNMaiBJTCAwmfc ■ 



SOW 



N^9±: 



234 
7T4 






<— ! — t— i — I— t- 



Pl^ 



1 26 



5jtl 






1 44 



5 41 



1 1 1 1 1-^ 



50W 



26 



NOTE: CIS did not produce an ice chart for NE Newfoundland waters on thiis date. 



raw 




ICEANAUrSIS 
ANALYSE DE GLACE 



East Newfoundland Waters 
Eaux da 'fena-NeuvB est 



VIKXIZ 



15 MAR/MAR 2003 



BASED ON/BASEESUR: 

RECON: 

RAOARSAn 1EMAR10Z 
NOf/DEMN 

NOAA: MAINiy CLOUDY 

PUnOTNUAGEUX 

8SMI16MAR12Z 






WW 



SSUL 



27 



NOTE-. CIS did not produce an ice chart for NE Newfoundland waters on this date. 



ICE ANALYSIS 
an&iyc;f HE GLACE 



East Newfoundland Waters 
Eaux de Terrp-Neuve est 



V 1800Z 

it^ APR/AVR 2003 



BASED ON/BASEE SUR. 
RECON: 1 4 APRWVR 2003 

RADARSAT; 15 APR/AVR 1010Z 
COTE DU LABRADOR COAST 
NCAA; 16 APR/AVR 

^/lAlNLY CLOUDY/PLUTOT NUAGEUX 

CGAH *50 



«X«.^«ATt«A^nF7. ^^^^_^^ 




28 




29 



Biweekly Iceberg Charts 



30 




Ul 

O 
ofeo 

m r^ — III -» 






5 5 CQ§M 

OL < Q OC liJ 
(9 K ZOO. 



31 




32 




33 




I fell 

S zoo. 



34 




35 




36 




37 




38 




39 







40 



Acknowledgements 

Commander, Intemational Ice Patrol acknowledges the assistance and 
information provided by: 



Canadian Coast Guard 

Canadian Forces 

Canadian Ice Service 

Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada 

National Ice Center 

National Weather Service 

Nav Canada Flight Services 

U. S. Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City 

U. S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Command Center 

U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area Staff 

U. S. Coast Guard Automated Merchant Vessel Emergency Response System 

U. S. Coast Guard Communications Area Master Station Atlantic 

U. S. Coast Guard Operations Systems Center 

U. S. Coast Guard Research and Development Center 

U. S. Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center 

U. S. Naval Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center 

It is important to recognize the outstanding efforts of the personnel at the 
International Ice Patrol: 

CDR R. L. Desh 
CDR M. R. Hicks 
LCDR S. D. Rogerson 
Dr. D. L. Murphy 
Mr. G. F. Wright 
LCDR L. K. Mack 
LT S. A. Stoermer 
LTJG N. A. Jarboe 
MSTCS V. L. Fogt 
MST1 D. L. Alexander 
YN1 T. J. DeVall 



MST1 E. 


W. Thompson 


MST1 T. 


T. Krein 


MST2J. 


P. Carew 


MST2 J. 


Dale 


MST2D 


A. Jolty 


MST3 B. 


H. Grebe 


MST3E 


P. Silman 


MST3D 


N. Brown 


MST3A 


L. Rodgers 


MST3J. 


E. Hutcherson 


MST3J. 


P. Buehner 



International Ice Patrol staff produced this report using Microsoft® Word 2000 and Excel 2000. 



41 



Appendix A 

Nations Currently Supporting International Ice Patrol 



Belgium 





Greece 




Poland 




Canada 



HI 



Italy 




Spain 






Denmark 



Japan 



Sweden 





Finland 



France 



Netherlands 



Norway 




United Kingdom 






United States of 
America 




Germany 




Panama 




• 






«v*»;*». 


• 



42 



Appendix B 

Ship Reports 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag Reports 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag 



Rgpgrts 



ANTIGUA & BARBUDA 



BBC ECUADOR 



CAMBODIA 



THEKLA 



CAPTAIN WAEL 



BAHAMAS ^ 


^ 1 


AEGEAN SEA 


1 


AEGEN SPIRIT 


14 


ATLANTIC CARTIER 


13 


BLACK SWAN 


5 


DAVIKEN 


1 


GREEN ARCTIC 


2 


GULF NOMAD 


8 


HUAL TRITON 


1 


IBIS ARROW 


1 


JAEGER ARROW 


1 


JOH GORTHON 


1 


JUNIPER 


1 


MAYON SPIRIT 


19 


PELICAN ARROW 


4 


SOTRA SPIRIT 


46 


STENA CONFIDENCE 


1 


SUN CLAUDIA 


1 


TECAM SEA 


1 


VANCOUVER SPIRIT 


3 



BERMUDA 




a 


CANMAR COURAGE 


4 


CANMAR FORTUNE 


6 


CANMAR GLORY 


1 


CANMAR VALOUR 


23 


CANMAR VICTORY 


2 




CAST POWER 


2 




MARGIT GORTHON 


1 



CANADA _ 


*■ 


ALGOFAX 


8 


ANN HARVEY 


8 


ARCTIC 


2 


ATLANTIC AIRWAYS 


22 


ATLANTIC PURSUIT 


3 


CAPE BONAVISTA LIGHTHOUSE 


3 


CAPE RACE LIGHTHOUSE 


7 


DES GROSEILLIERS 


6 


GAME II 


1 


GRAND BARON 


1 


GREENWHICH MAERSK 


3 


HENRY LARSON 


1 


JACQUES DESGAGNES 


3 


KOMETIK 


12 


LEONARD J. COWLEY 


4 


MAERSK BONAVISTA 


1 


MATTEA 


69 


NORTHERN WHALE 


1 


OOCL BELGIUM 


1 


PIERRE RADISSON 


4 


PROVINCIAL AIRWAYS 


43 


SHAWINIGAN 


21 


SIR WILFRED GRENFELL 


1 


SUMMERSIDE 


1 


TERRY FOX 


2 


TUKTU 


12 


TWILLINGATE LIGHTHOUSE 


27 


VINLAND 


1 



43 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag 



Rgpgrts 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag 



Reports 



CAYMAN ISLANDS ^"^ « 


LIKON 


11 


PARNASSOS 


5 


PILION 


4 


STOLT ACHIEVEMENT 


5 



CYPRUS 


1 1 


APEX 


4 


ARISTIDIS D 


1 


CATA PILAR 


2 


CINNAMON 


2 


FRIO LONDON 


1 


INDEPENDENT TRADER 


1 


ISADORA 


8 


ISNES 


17 


PEARLMAR 


8 


PUMPURI 


1 


STRANGE ATTRACTOR 


2 


TASSOS N 


1 


TEGESOS 


1 



DENMARK 



OLGA MAERSK 



FINLAND 



BIRKA FOREST 



FRANCE 



MARION DUFRESNE 



ESTONIA 


^■" 


ANDVARI 


1 


TAURUS 


1 



15 



n 




GREECE 


1^ 


AMAZON GLADIATOR 


7 


AQUAGRACE 


1 


CAP DIAMANT 


1 


CAP GEORGES 


66 


CAP JEAN 


4 


CAP ROMUALD 


16 


MAKRONISSOS 


1 


MARATHON 


9 


MILO 


7 


MONALISA 


1 


OLYMPIC MENTOR 


10 


SPYROS 


8 


STEMNITSA 


7 


TALISMAN 


1 



HONG KONG 


t 1 


CASHIN 


1 


FEDERAL HUDSON 


1 


FEDERAL PROGRESS 


1 


FULL COMFORT 


1 


OCEAN FAVOUR 


6 


OOCL CANADA 


1 


SAGA SKY 


3 



ICELAND 



SUNNA 



ISRAEL 



ZIM CALIFORNIA 



ITALY 


d 


GRANDE SPAGNA 


9 


ISOLA VERDE 


2 


SVART FALK 


14 



44 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag Reports 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag RgportS 



JAMAICA 



LAMAZON 



KOREA (SOUTH) 



SABINA 



LATVIA 



ERLA 



1 



^^/. 



♦ 



^. 



LIBERIA 


w 


ARCTURUS 


3 


ASOPOS 


2 


BERING SEA 


2 


CANADA SENATOR 


1 


CRUDE PRINCESS 


4 


DJANET 


2 


DUNDEE 


4 


HELENA OLDENDORFF 


23 


LIELUPE 


1 


LUCKY TRANSPORTER 


1 


LYDIA OLDENORFF 


3 


MSC BOSTON 


15 


NORDIC BLOSSOM 


1 


OBO VENTURE 


1 


ORION HIGHWAY 


9 


P&O NEDLLOYD MAIRANGI 


1 


REGINA OLDENDORFF 


4 


SANKO QUALITY 


2 


ST. PETERSBURG SENATOR 


8 


STOLT ASPIRATION 


10 


TRIBUTE 


5 


VOYAGER 


10 



LITHUANIA 


U 


KAPITONAS A. LUCKA 


11 


KAPITONAS MARCINKUS 


1 


KAPITONAS STULPINAS 


6 



LITHUANIA cont. 



SVILAS 



12 



MALTA 


■ 


BALI SEA 


1 


BERING SEA 


2 


BREGEN 


1 


ENDEAVOR 


1 


GREEN SUMMER 


5 


JOHNNY K 


2 


KAPITAN ZHURAVLYOV 


1 


KING A 


2 


LATGALE 


9 


LIANO 


6 


LYKES RUNNER 


4 


MARGARA 


5 


MERIOM JOY 


2 


MOSTOLES 


1 


PILICA 


1 


TROGIR 


2 


ZIM CALIFORNIA 


2 



MARSHALL ISLANDS 


#^ 


AMAZON 


2 


EURO SUN 


1 


LAKE ERIE 


1 


LAKE MICHIGAN 


3 


LAKE ONTARIO 


5 


LAKE SUPERIOR 


28 


YARMOUTH 


7 


YELLOWKNIFE 


1 


ZIEMIA GORNOSLASKA 


6 


ZIEMIA LODZKA 


11 



NETHERLANDS 


SSi 


ARION 


1 


P&O NEDLLOYD AUCKLAND 


3 



45 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag RgPOrtS 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag 



Reports 



NETHERLANDS cont. 



NORWAY cont. 



VLISTBORG 



TRINIDAD 



20 





1 


^ ^ 






•,',• 


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES 


1 


■ 1 


IVER EXCEL 


2 


JO ASK 


4 


JO LIND 


6 


LYNBAANSGRACHT 




MARINUS GREEN 




PELAGIA 




SCHIPPERSGRACHT 




SINGELGRACHT 




SNOEKGRACHT 





Jl_ 


NORWAY 3.1^ 


BALBOA 


3 


BANASTAR 


1 


BERGE ARCTIC 


62 


BERGENORD* 


70 


BERTHIA 


2 


BOW CENTURY 


3 


LANGENES 


1 


MARINETTE 


22 


MENOMINEE 


20 


NCC ASIR 


6 


ODIN EXPLORER 


2 


PROSPECT 


1 


SIBOTI 


1 


SPAR GARNET 


1 


SPAR THREE 


3 


STAR DIEPPE 


2 


STAR FUJI 


1 


STAR SKOGANGER 


40 


TAIKO 


1 


TEEKAY FAIR 


8 


TEEKAY FOUNTAIN 


4 


TOFTON 


15 



NORWEGIAN INT. REGISTER 


^^ 


EMMA 


1 


GREEN COOLER 


2 



D 

PANAMA 


U| 


AURORAL ACE 




BUJIN 




C.S. QUEEN 




CAPE PAMPAS 




CO-OP PHOENIX 




FEDERAL SUMIDA 




FIVOS 




GECO SEARCHER 




HANG TA 




IKAN BELIAK 




KENT RELIANT 




LOWLANDS YARRA 




MERIDIAN ACE 




MEXICAN REEFER 




MOL THAMES 1 


3 


NICON FRONTIER 




NORD ACE 




NORDGLIMT 




NORTHSEA 




PRIDE 1 





RED CHERRY ; 




SILVERMAR 




SPAR TWO 




SPICA 1 




STOLT DORSET 




SUPER RUBIN 




WELSH VENTURE ' 





46 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag Reports 



Ships Reporting Bv Flag RgpgrtS 



PHILIPPINES 



STAR SAVANNAH 



RUSSIA 



ZAPOLYARYE 



SWITZERLAND 



GENERAL GUISAN 



THAILAND 



39 



14 



POLAND 


1 1 


ZIEMIACHELMINSKA 


1 


ZIEMIA TARNOWSKA 


1 



SINGAPORE 


n 


CSK GRANDEUR 


8 


ELISABETH MAERSK 


27 


EMILIE MAERSK 


9 


HSH UBIN 


2 


IKAN BELIAK 


10 


JULIA 


4 


STAR IKEBANA 


8 


STAR SIRANGER 


4 



ST. VINCENT 


"■} 


REGINA 


8 


RHONE 


8 



SWEDEN 


J 


ATLANTIC COMPANION 


8 


GLORY CREDO 


2 


MARIA GORTHON 


2 



TURKEY ^ 


C- 


CELINE-1 


3 


HACI HASAN YARDIM 


1 



UKRAINE 


1 


MAKEEVKA 


1 



UNITED KINGDOM 3n l^ 


BRITISH HUNTER 


1 


CELTIC TERRIER 


1 


CIELO Dl BISCAGLIA 


4 


GOSPORT MAERSK 


6 


JANET-C 


5 


JILL-C 


14 


LIAC 


3 


LYKES AMBASSADOR 


1 


MARIA KNUTSEN 


2 







=^ 


UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 


^= 





GEYSIR 


32 


GUS W. DARNELL 


1 


MAERSK GEORGIA 


5 


MAERSK VIRGINIA 


2 


NATIONAL ICE CENTER 


4 



UNKNOWN 



ANY SHIP 



WHATS HAPPENING 



VANUATU 



WISLANES 



*DENOTES VESSEL PARTICIPATION 
AWARD WINNER 



62 



TOLTECA 



47 



Appendix C 

2003 Ice Chart Reception Project 

MST2 Jonathan Dale 
LT Scott Stoermer 



During the 2003 ice season the 
International Ice Patrol (IIP) requested that 
mariners return ice charts received via high 
frequency (HF) weather fax (WEFAX) while at 
sea. The charts where then analyzed and 
studied in an effort to gain a better 
understanding of the reception quality as well 
as geographic extent of dissemination of our 
product. 

IIP strives to continually improve the 
quality of the product provided to the North 
Atlantic mariner. In years past, IIP has 
conducted similar surveys of WEFAX 
reception. Through ongoing studies of our HF 
product, we hope to gain a better understanding 
of its use, its quality and how it might be 
improved. 

The ice chart is a major navigational aid 
used and trusted by many North Atlantic 
mariners. The chart depicts the Limit of All 
Known Ice (LAKI) for mariners' use in voyage 
planning as well as underway decisions 
regarding ship tracking. It was requested that 
the mariner return any charts received via 
WEFAX, noting reception time, reception 
location and frequency of receipt. IIP monitors 
every ice chart broadcast from Groton with its 
own HF receiver and WEFAX software. 
Unfortunately, HP's position relative to the 
transmitting antennae makes the reception, 
more often that not, poor. Consequently, IIP 
considers its HF reception capability as only a 
check of the fact that the ice chart is being 
transmitted, not its quality. So, IIP is more 
interested in how the product is received by 
vessels operating in the North Atlantic, 

During the 2003 season, IIP received 82 
ice charts from 14 different vessels (Table 1). 



Ice charts from all over the Atlantic Ocean 
where received. In an effort to gain better 
understanding of HF propagation in our area of 
responsibility, we narrowed the area of study to 
the region bounded by 39°N, 52°N, 35°W and 
64°W. 

Based on the returned charts, the quality 
of reception was divided into five categories as 
shown in Figure 1 . Category 1 included charts 
with the best reception. Category 2 represented 
good reception, and Category 3 consisted of 
charts with fair reception. Category 4 included 
charts from which the date and LAKI were 
barely readable and Category 5 reception 
included charts considered useless to the 
mariner. Figure 2 displays chart reception 
position, frequency and quality. 



REPORTING VESSELS 



BERGE NORD 



BLACK SWAN 



CSK GRANDEUR SINGAPORE 



FEDERAL HUDSON 



KAPITONAS A LUCKA 



LYDIA OLDENDORFF 



MATTEA 



OCEAN FAVOUR 



OFFENBACH 



P&O NEDLLOYD AUCKLAND 



PEARL MAR 



PRIDE 



SEA LAND PERFORMANCE 



STAR IKEBANA 



STAR SAVANNAH 



TOFTON 



Table 1. Listing of vessels returning ice charts 
in 2003. 



48 



1. Best Rcccnlidii 




■:-(.-r*IAUDK-li>ICAMN)bMIICX I 1 

»t*.r*ii lG^^mj* ivoawcT p~— T— 
»■•■».,-(^:l'1«^■.■l'n<■i,^.■I1C I J 

^^« tjC'lnciv:''© "^t — I— 



ssissas 



tfVtinn*vSi«ngMiaLWM4tfy(r« c* J 



IwyfrWL-i-^-^j^r 



2. Good Reception 







1 —1 I . n il l UJ ■"■---rr.:. -mit- -«.i a»^f ►.•.Cl^S, 
-I . ' MW 1— i i— i4SW ,- *' "T "1 «IwT 1-"'35W' 



' Ki Readable 










-i-nn 



_iawL_:^^— Jasw 




5. Poor Reception 




:Q CQ ut- NiK N!K 



Figure 1. Ice Chart reception rating scale. 



49 



The data received by IIP shows that, of 
all the ice charts received, 94% had at least the 
LAKI and date readable. Assuming that the 
sample of 82 charts received is fairly 
representative of the larger population of HF 
received charts, this level of usefulness is 
promising. The data also shows that more than 
53% of all ice charts were received on 9110 
MHz (Table 2). The fact that the US Coast 
Guard transmits the chart on the most used 
frequency shows that the customer of the ice 
chart finds the US transmission satisfactory. 
The most used frequency found during this 
survey differs from that found during the 2000 
survey in which 12750 MHz ranked the 
highest. Interestingly, the percentage of the 
charts received at the 12 MHz frequency also 
represented 53% of the sample (Dale and 
Strong, 2000, p. 53)*. Based upon the 
combined data for both studies, it can be 
inferred that the higher frequencies generate a 
better, more reliable product for the mariner. 

This study, when considered in 
conjunction with that of 2000, shows that the 
HF WEFAX ice chart remains a viable and 
trusted product dissemination method. Surveys 



Percent Frequency 


53.1% 


9110 MHz 


19.8% 


12750 MHz 


12.3% 


6340 MHz 


8.6% 


4325 MHz 


5% 


7880 MHz 


1.2% 


Other 



Table 2. Percentage of ice charts returned, 
broken down by frequency. 

of this nature, in addition to the customer 
satisfaction survey planned for 2004, give the 
Ice Patrol a real insight into customer feelings. 
The Ice Patrol Customer Relations work group 
stands ready to assist any and all Ice Patrol 
customers with questions about products or 
dissemination methods. Please do not hesitate 
to contact us: 

Commander 

International Ice Patrol 

Attn: Customer Relations 

1082 Shennecossett Road 

Groton, CT 06340 

(860)441-2626 

iipcomms@rdc.uscg.mil 



* Dale, J. and C. Strong, 2000. 2000 Fax Chart Reception Project. Appendix Cm: Report of the International Ice 

Patrol in the North Atlantic. Bulletin No. 86, 2000. 



-^ "TJ 






' 4+VHiT\AA^rVVV 


COLOR KEY 

BEST RECEPTION 

GOOD RECEPTION 

F.MR RECEPTION 

LAKI & DATE 

RF \n\BTF 

POOR RECEPTION 

NUMBER KEY 

1 = 12750 MHZ 

2 = 91 10 MHZ 

3 = 7880 MHZ 

4 = 6340 MHZ 

5 = 4325 MHZ 
6 = OTHER 

Of all ice charts received 
only 53 are depicted, in an 

effort to study the ice 
charts received in the IIP 

area of responsibility. 


jtt 






_nTjL^^ 


^_^ Jt^f^t 






jpnTu^^ 


^^Tu~v£- 






jjTTuJi-^^ 


'jjj4-i^ ^fct^ 






jrnXuAA^^ 


7pffi5' ^ 






I-HIinnVr^ 


irjil-^^ 






'^ iPLn444n[T\^ 


- T 




jIA4nM\M 


'TTrrnK 






jjinij^ 


jinr^XXX- 






nn^niUJr^^ 


JlJnnJ-lX^ 


1 




JjjLUp^^ 


HljA-J^^ ^ 


> 




[ jjlH-w-^^ 


nrrr-B- ' 






HjjTTlU-^i^^ 


mTtt44- ' 


2 

1 




]TjTI^^ 


iiwrt4^^N-i~ 


<^( 


\W 


nTuQlM^ 







Figure 2. Distribution of ice charts within the analysis region. 



50 



Appendix D 

Iceberg Drift Model Comparisons with Ice Island Position Data 

MST3 Allie Rodgers 
LT Scott Stoermer 

Abstract 

The analysis of 13 days of iceberg tracking data for the purposes of testing the drift 
characteristics of the International Ice Patrol's iceberg drift and deterioration model is 
presented. The data collection, methods and analysis are discussed. A historical 
background section follows the project conclusions and briefly outlines the historical 
aspects of Ice Patrol's iceberg marking and tracking techniques as well as Ice Islands. 

Introduction 

The iceBerg Analysis and Prediction System (BAPS) has been extensively tested over the 
years to help ensure that the Canadian Ice Service and the International Ice Patrol (IIP) use the 
best information possible to estimate iceberg drift and deterioration. The region of the North 
Atlantic Ocean that IIP is concerned about is highly complex as the Gulf Stream (GS), Labrador 
Current (LC) and North Atlantic Current (NAC) interact in a region of very shallow bathymetry. 
Coupled with dynamic, often harsh weather, the intricacies of this ocean-atmosphere system make 
its prediction very difficult and require IIP to constantly concern itself with the differences 
between the actual ocean and the BAPS ocean. 

The appearance of very large tabular icebergs in the region of the Grand Banks of 
Newfoundland for the second consecutive year provided IIP with some unique opportunities 
during the 2003 ice season. Most notably, IIP was able to deploy a Compact Air Launched Ice 
Beacon (CALIB) and gather approximately two weeks of real-time iceberg position information 
during the late spring. IIP's archive of the environmental forcing files used by BAPS provided 
the means to test the model after the fact. 

CALIB Data and Methods 

The CALIB used by IIP during this experiment was provided by the Canadian Ice Service 
and originally procured from METOCEAN. On May 5, 2003 (during Ice Reconnaissance 
Detachment #7), CALIB #1 1247 was deployed onto an iceberg measuring approximately 250 m x 
100 m in position 46.873°N/47.927°E (see photo collage on front cover and Figure 1). The 
beacon was deployed from an altitude of 350 feet at approximately 150 knots indicated air speed 
from the cargo ramp of a Coast Guard HC- 1 30H. Data was gathered via the ARGOS system until 
18 May at which time the CALIB stopped transmitting for unknown reasons. Presumably, the 
CALIB was lost to the ocean when the iceberg broke apart or rolled as it deteriorated. 

Thirteen days of position data were gathered consisfing of 1 10 individual position fixes 
(Figure 1). Each fix was placed in a confidence level category by ARGOS based on position fix 
quality. ARGOS uses a fix quality of one through three with three designating the highest level 
of confidence. For the comparison experiments conducted here, only the 57 highest quality fixes 
(fix category 3) were used. 

51 




\ 



Sfl'iM 3;°w 



— I .J ■ - ,j , , I — ■ , — • 

SCiAl 48°W 4S°W 



48''N tp 



47''N 




TART 



45*" N ->' 



CALIB Data 
5-1 8 May 2003 
13 Days 



\ 



49^^ 



■<tr 2cr 



dS'W 



■nr ;cr 



47Va 



Figure 1. CALIB track. 



Comparison Methods 



BAPS is not truly intended to accurately model Ice Island shaped icebergs as they are rare 
and represent a small fraction of the icebergs seen in the Grand Banks region. Additionally, the 
above water height of Ice Islands is less than archetypical tabular icebergs which have 
significantly higher freeboards as well as deeper drafts. Subsequently, the comparisons attempted 
here were done with limited hope of high levels of correlation even when a very large, tabular 
iceberg was modeled. Therefore, in order to test the model, many permutations were attempted 
throughout this analysis. Table 1 details the tests performed. Basically, different iceberg shapes 
and sizes were modeled using the What-If functionality of BAPS. What-If model runs permit the 
user to alter virtually all of the model's parameters including iceberg size/shape, environmental 
forcing data fields and model timeframes. In the case of this experiment, What-Ifs were run using 
a 72-hour sliding window for each size/shape-forcing combination (Table 1 ). The 72-hour 
window was used in order to avoid any errors associated with longer model runs but still maintain 
a time frame allowing for response to changes in local forcing. The 72-hour window provided for 
13 individual model runs per model permutation. The chosen sizes and shapes were based on the 
size and shape of the actual iceberg and a hypothesis that a growler might present a good 
representation (in the model) of real-world Ice Island drift. There were no modifications made to 
the environmental forcing data except that, for certain permutations, a particular forcing was 
switched off in order to determine the effect of wind or current alone. 



52 



Iceberg Size 


Shape 


Wind and Current 


Wind Only 


Current Only 


Very Large 


Tabular 


X 


X 


X 


Non-tabular 


X 


X 


X 


Growler 


N/A 


X 


X 


X 



Table 1. What-lf model permutations conducted during this project. 



Results 

In general, the final positions of the What-If modeled icebergs were within 20 nautical 
miles (NM) of the true position of the tracked Ice Island. The 20 NM threshold is interesting 
because it represents the error circle radius presently used by Ice Patrol for an iceberg that has 
been in the model for 3 days. From that perspective, it can be stated that the model is a 
reasonable representation of the real ocean for the area being considered (on the Bank, away from 
more complex regions near the tail). Operationally, this result provides IIP with good support for 
the model error estimates currently employed in the system. 

Counter-intuitively, the modeled very large tabular iceberg did not behave most like the 
tracked Ice Island. The very large tabular was greatly affected by cunent and to a lesser degree 
by the wind. In the case of the very large tabular drifted with wind and currents, the modeled 
iceberg was only within 20 NM of the actual position following 42% of the model runs. When 
the same iceberg was drifted with winds only, it was within 20 NM after 52% of the runs. 
Examples of the model results for the very large are presented in Figure 2. 

The growler modeled with no currents provided the most accurate representation of actual 
Ice Island drift. Following 92% of the model runs, the wind-driven growler was within 20 NM of 
the Ice Island's actual position. With currents and wind however, the resultant growler was only 
42% accurate. 




Figure 2. Model results from What-lfs drifting a very large tabular iceberg. The left panel displays the very large 
drifted with winds and currents and the right displays drift with winds only. The blue symbols represent the modeled 
iceberg while the brown represents actual Ice Island position. Note the growth of the error circle as time in the model 
elapses from 1 day to 3 days (5 NM, 10 NM, 20 NM). 



Figure 3 presents some examples of What-lf/growler results. While not surprising, this result is a 
nice confirmation of the general assumption that Ice Island drift will tend to be dominated by 
wind effects because of their relatively shallow draft. 



53 




Figure 3. Model results from What-lfs drifting a growler. The left pariel displays the very large drifted with wirids and 
currents and the right displays drift with winds only. The green symbols represents the modeled iceberg while the 
brown represents actual Ice Island position. Note the growth of the error circle as time in the model elapses from 1 
day to 3 days (5 NM, 10 NM, 20 NM). 



Conclusion 

The accuracy of BAPS modeled iceberg drift was analyzed through the use of multiple 
What-If model runs drifting various icebergs. The modeled growler forced by winds alone best 
represented actual Ice Island drift. Additionally, it is of note that a large portion of the modeled 
results were within HP's 20 NM (radius) error circle for three-day-old icebergs. This fact lends 
credence to the present error circle defaults used within BAPS. 

While this experiment is a good first attempt at producing some data for model ground- 
truthing, it is not ideal given the drift characteristics of Ice Islands. For greater applicability, it 
would be more ideal to track icebergs that are both more populous on the Grand Banks as well as 
ones that BAPS is more suited to model. IIP has procured additional CALIBs for possible use 
during the 2004 season and will attempt to place them on other, more typical targets. 



Historical Background 

Iceberg Marking and Tracking 

The need to track the drift of icebergs in the vicinity of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland 
has existed for many years. IIP has transitioned from the most rudimentary method of iceberg 
tracking to some of the most advanced during its 90-i- year lifespan. Initially, the ships assigned 
to Ice Patrol drifted with the southern most iceberg(s) and reported their position, via radio, to 
warn shipping interests in the area. Currently, the Ice Patrol is able to monitor the position of 
icebergs with satellite positioning technology. Within the spectrum from drift tracking to satelhte 
data, the Coast Guard has tried some interesting methods. 

The vessels of the Ice Patrol, each year, would search for icebergs, drift, and report 
positions. As radio and navigation aid technology grew, ship-based reconnaissance data was used 
to generate radio and text ice warnings. As reconnaissance ability grew with the application of 
shipboard RADAR systems, the need to identify individual icebergs became necessary. Iceberg 
marking with dye became a common procedure to facilitate consecutive identification of icebergs 
and allow data on iceberg drift data to be collected (Figure 4). When the primary reconnaissance 



54 



tool shifted from surface to airborne assets, iceberg marking remained an important facet of the 
scientific benefit of the North Atlantic Ice Service (Figure 5). 




Figure 4. Ship-based iceberg marking. (Coast Guard Photograph) 




Figure 5. Air-deploy of iceberg marking dye from Coast Guard HC-130 aircraft. (Coast Guard Photograph) 



The scientific data available for iceberg tracking was further increased by remote 
positioning technology currently including satellite positioning and communications technology. 
The CALIB provides position data, via the Global Positioning System, and communicates its 
position up to six times per day to a data collection system. 



55 



Ice Islands 

The International Ice Patrol has monitored icebergs that drift south along the coast of 
Labrador and into the Grand Banks of Newfoundland region since the sinking of the TITANIC in 
April of 1912. The LC carries the icebergs that calve, or break away, from glaciers in Greenland 
and northern Canada southward from Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. Several glaciers are capable of 
producing icebergs that end their journey on the Grand Banks. Specifically, the Ward Hunt ice 
shelf, the Humboldt Glacier, and the Petermann Glacier are likely sources of Ice Islands, as the 
basin conditions seem to favor the production of large tabular icebergs with shallow draft (Robe, 
1977). 

As defined by Bowditch, an Ice Island is a piece of glacial ice that rises roughly 1 meters 
above the ocean's surface and has an overall thickness of about 50 meters. Often, Ice Islands will 
have a wave-like surface, appearing ribbed from the air. The surface area of an Ice Island can 
range from a few thousand square meters to hundreds of square nautical miles. Thusly, Ice 
Islands are not necessarily huge, in terms of surface area, but are unusually thin and flat-topped. 

The detection and identification of Ice Islands has occurred during the last two years in the 
region of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. Ice Islands that drift into the Grand Banks region 
potentially pose a greater threat to shipping and the oil and gas industry than other icebergs. The 
relatively thin drafts of Ice Islands allow them to drift into much shallower water than an iceberg 
of similar mass but non-tabular shape. 

The tabletops of Ice Islands present an excellent target for tags and other tracking devices. 
The Canadian Ice Service has been using CALIBs to track very large icebergs and the ice sheet in 
the northern reaches of the Labrador Sea for many years (Desjardins, personal communication). 
During the 2003 ice season, IIP decided to attempt marking and tracking an iceberg for the 
purposes of gathering data such that model testing could be done after the fact. Additionally, 
since the skill set of actually hitting an iceberg with a tracking or marking device was last 
employed in the 1980's, the successful tagging discussed here is a nice confirmafion that IIP can 
sfill deploy instruments with the necessary precision. 

References 

Bowditch, N., American Practical Navigator , Pub. No. 9, 2002. 

Desjardins, L., personal communication, 2003. 

Robe. R., D. Maier, and R. Kollmeyer, Iceberg Deterioration, Nature , 267, 505-506, 1977. 



56 



U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

TECHNOLOGY ADMINISTRATION 

NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE 



ORDER FORM 



NTIS 



NTIS Web Site — http://www.ntis.gov 



SHIP TO ADDRESS (please print Of type) 



CUSTOMER MASTER NUMMR (IF KrWV\T<; 



ATTINTIOttTOI.IE 



ORGANIZAIIIJN 



STREET ADDRESS 



DIVISION 'RtlOM NUMBER 



CIT, 


L^IAU 


ZICUIDt 


CROVINCE; TERRITORY 


IfllEPNATlONAL POSTAL CODE 



PHONE NUMBER 


FAX NUMBER 


CONTACT NAME 


INTERNET E-MAIL ADDRESS 



METHOD OF PAYMEIMT (ptase print or type) 



□ VISA 



□ MasterCard □American Express □Discover 



CREDIT CARD NUMBER 



EXPIRATION DATE 



CARDHOLDERS NAME 



ORDER BY PHONE (eumiuate mail time) 

■S (X) am, • (i.OOp m. Eastern Time, M - F. 

Sales Desk: l-8aO-553-NTIS (6847) or (703) 605-(»00 

TDD (7C31 487.463'^ (8:30 am - 5:00 p.m.) 

CUSTOMER SERVICE 

l-3ffii-5.'i4-B!32 oi (703) 605-6C50 

ORDER BY FAX - (703) 605-6900 

To verity receipt ot (ax call: (703) 605-6090, 
7 00 am - 5:00 p ra Eastern Time. U-f. 

ORDER BY MAIL 

l^ialmrijl Teclmical Inlotmation Seivlce 
5285 Port Royal Real 
Spiinqdeld VA 22161 

RUSH SERVICE Is available for an addilional fee 
Coll 1-800-553-6647 or (703) 605-5000. 

ORDER VIA E-MAIL - For Internet security when placing 
youi ordersviae mail, recjistei your aedit card at NTIS: call 
(703) 60-5-6070. Order via E-mail 24 hours a day: 
otde/sBiitis gov 

BILL ME (US , Canada, and Ivlexico only) 
NT15 will gladly bill your order, lor an additional (ee ol $10.00. 
A request to be billed must be on a purchase order or ccmpairy 
lelterliead An aulhori2iiigsignalure, contact name, and 
lelepliciie iiumbei should be included with Ihisreques!. 
Reijiiesis may be mailed or faxed. 



□ NTIS Deposit Account Number: 



□ Check / Money Order enclosed for $ 



IPAYA6LE TO NTIS IN U S DaLARS) 



SATISFACTION GUARAI^TEED - NTIS strives to 

provide quality products, reliable service, and fast 

delivery. Please contact us for a replacement within 

30 days if the ilem you receive is defective or if we 

have made an error in filling your order. 

► E-mail: infoS'nlis.gov 

P- Phone. 1-888-584-8332 or (703)505-6050 



PRODUCT SELECTIOIM (please pnnt or type) 

Most of the documents available from NTIS are reproduced on demand from our electronic archive and are not original slock. 



NTIS PROOUCT NUMBER 



INItRHfllClBTOWffR 
ROUTING (OriKWAL) 

unri8f.nAPAi:TER': 



Fma MICRO («.MTr diskette j co rom I other 

mPY FirHE litf if 



mbwtdh 

ARM. fed 

SKMLI.V,: 



J, cipat 

^ RtOUIfiEUSNTS 



3480 
CARIKIKC 



STAMMRD IIONUBCLED 



TOTAL 



PLEASE NOTE 

Unless inicrolidie or other is sjieatied. jxiper ccpy will b? sent. 

Please call the Sales Desk al 1 -800-553-NTIS (6847) or (703) 605-6000 for information on multiple copy discounts 

available tor certain documents 

Out-Of-Print Surcharge 

A 25"i ciiini print sutciiarqe will be added lo titles acquired by NTIS more than 3 years prior to the current calendar year. 

International Airmail Fees 

All regular piejiaid orders are shipped 'air-io-surlace" unless airmail is tecjuested. Airmail service is amilable lor an 
addirional lee Canada and Ms;<ico arid $4 /m iieni Cihei coiinii ies add $8 /»f iiem 



HANDLING FEE 

PER TOTAL ORDER 

Outside Nodfi America-SIO.OO 



GRAND TOTAL 



s.oo 



7/ia/}A ^you /br jvur order/ 



2002-01 



This Page Intentionally Left Blank 



To Order International Ice Patrol Annual Reports from 
NTIS (National Technical Information Service) 

1. The Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic for each of the 1990 through 2002 
seasons may be ordered through the NTIS World Wide Web site (http://www.ntis.gov/index.asp) by 
entering the appropriate NTIS Accession Number into the "Search Now!" text box. 

2. The Report of the International Ice Patrol in the North Atlantic for each of the 1953 through 2002 
seasons may be ordered by telephone, fax or mail. 

Orders by telephone, call 1-800-553-6847 Monday through Friday between the hours of 8:00 
A.M. and 6:00 P.M. Eastern Time. 

Orders by fax may be placed using the NTIS Order Form 

(tear out on previous page and available on the NTIS website). Fax NTIS Order Forms to 

1-703-605-6900. Include Accession Number in "NTIS PRODUCT NUMBER" box. 

Orders by mail may be placed using the NTIS Order Form 

(tear out on previous page and available on the NTIS website). Include Accession Number in 

"NTIS PRODUCT NUMBER" box. Send order form to: 

National Technical Information Service 
5285 Port Royal Road 
Springfield, VA 22161 

Please contact NTIS for pricing and shipping information. 

U.S. Department of Commerce 
Technology Administration 

National Technical Information Service 
Springfield, Virginia 22161 
(703) 605-6000 



Year 


NTIS Accession # 


1953 


AD780 850/4 


1954 


AD780 851/2 


1955 


AD780 852/0 


1956 


AD780 853/8 


1957 


Unavailable 


1958 


AD780 854/6 


1959 


AD780 855/3 


1960 


AD777 945/7 


1961 


AD777 950/7 


1962 


AD777 951/5 


1963 


AD777 952/3 


1964 


AD774 510/2 


1965 


AD774 511/0 


1966 


AD692 936 


1967 


AD774 504/5 


1968 


AD774 505/2 


1969 


AD718 504 



Year 


NTIS Accession # 


1970 


AD736 981 


1971 


AD778 013/3 


1972 


AD780 537/7 


1973 


ADA020 336/4 


1974 


ADA055 267/9 


1975 


ADA058 898/8 


1976 


ADA066 081/1 


1977 


ADA075 246/9 


1978 


ADA079 474/3 


1979 


ADA093 073/5 


1980 


ADA1 13 555/7 


1981 


AD A 134 791/3 


1982 


ADA1 49 595/1 


1983 


ADA259815/9 


1984 


ADA26 1408/9 


1985 


ADA259656/7 



Year 


NTIS Accession # 


1986 


ADA259816/7 


1987 


ADA259817/5 


1988 


ADA26 1407/1 


1989 


ADA259818/3 


1990 


ADA256161 


1991 


ADA256162 


1992 


PB2002 100029 


1993 


PB2002100028 


1994 


PB20021 00030 


1995 


PB2002100023 


1996 


PB2002100025 


1997 


PB2002 100024 


1998 


PB20021 00022 


1999 


PB20021 00514 


2000 


PB2003 100304 


2001 


PB2003101111 


2002 


PB20031 07684