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! WATERFOWL PRODUCTION
I IN NORTH AMERICA, 1955-71
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
Fish and Wildlife Service
Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife
Special Scientific Report-Wildlife No. 160
ents
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENTOF THE INTERIOR
Fish and Wildlife Service
Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife
AERIAL SURVEYS OF WATERFOWL PRODUCTION
IN NORTH AMERICA, 1955-71
by
Charles J. Henny, David R. Anderson
and Richard S. Pospahala
Migratory Bird Populations Station
Division of Wildlife Research
Laurel, Maryland
Special Scientific Report— Wildlife No. 160
Washington, D.C. 1972
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price 75 cents
Stock Number 2410-00342
CONTENTS
Page
Preface iv
Introduction 1
Survey development and techniques 1
Development 1
Techniques 3
General 3
Survey procedures 4
Air-ground survey 4
Reconstruction of files 5
Results 6
Southern Prairie Provinces 6
July pond counts 6
Sampling errors in the measurement of July ponds 7
Brood index (all species) 7
Brood size (all species) 10
Late nesting index (all species) H
Recruitment rate (all species) 12
Northern Canada and Northwest Territories 13
Brood index (all species) 13
Brood size (all species) 14
Late nesting index (all species) 15
North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana 15
July pond counts 15
Brood index (all species) 15
Brood size (all species) 15
Late nesting index (all species) 15
Summary 16
Acknowledgments 16
References 17
Appendices 18
iii
PREFACE
This report, as the title implies, summarizes July waterfowl production survey data collected by
personnel of the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife and other cooperating agencies during the
1955-71 period. In recent years the survey has been used to monitor waterfowl populations on
approximately 855,700 square miles of the North American breeding range. To enable the report to be
timely, analysis and discussion are kept to a minimum, although some obvious relationships are
described. Summaries of basic information collected during the survey are presented in tabular form in
the Appendices. Appendix A refers to the data obtained in the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada;
Appendix B, northern Prairie Provinces and the Northwest Territories; Appendix C, North Dakota,
South Dakota, and Montana; Appendix D, Minnesota; and Appendix E, northwestern Ontario.
This and a companion report (Pospahala et al., in prep.) on the May Breeding Ground Survey
were prepared because information collected annually on the size, distribution and production of
North American waterfowl populations had never been summarized in a comparable manner. Prior to
this date, the information was published annually in the Bureau's "Waterfowl Status Reports" (Special
Scientific Report -Wildlife). A close review of the published survey statistics indicated that no two sets
of the same data were in agreement. The discrepancies were partially the result of annual updates and
corrections. As a part of the comprehensive Mallard Study being conducted by the staff of the
Migratory Bird Populations Station, all breeding ground survey data were reconstructed. Since these
data are not available for machine processing, this report is to serve as a vehicle to make these data
available as future reference material to research and management biologists throughout North
America. Also, it is hoped that the data presented here will stimulate population ecologists and
systems ecologists from other disciplines to become more interested in the dynamics of waterfowl
populations.
Cover photo: Type V prairie pothole in late summer. (By Grady Mann,
Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife)
iv
AERIAL SURVEYS OF WATERFOWL PRODUCTION
IN NORTH AMERICA, 1955-71
By Charles J. Henny, David R. Anderson, and Richard S. Pospahala
Migratory Bird Populations Station
Division of Wildlife Research
Laurel, Maryland
The annual sporting harvest of waterfowl
in North America significantly affects the
annual mortality rate of continental waterfowl
populations (Hickey, 1952; Geis, 1963). This
fact, operating in conjunction with unstable
habitat conditions in the most important por-
tions of the waterfowl breeding grounds,
creates one of the most dynamic game animal
management situations known. In order to
ensure perpetuation and equitable use of the
resource, desired harvest levels must be de-
termined on an annual basis. Therefore, to
monitor the status of the continental water-
fowl population the Bureau of Sport Fisheries
and Wildlife, in cooperation with the Canadian
Wildlife Service and various Provincial wild-
life management agencies, conducts two aerial
surveys on the major waterfowl breeding
grounds in North America each year (Crissey,
1957). The first, conducted during May and
early June, is a census of waterfowl breeding
populations; the second, conducted over the
same transects in July, is a production survey.
Historically, these surveys have been used to
monitor the annual status of the continental
waterfowl population, and the information col-
lected has been of paramount importance in
the setting of annual waterfowl regulations
(see discussion by Geis et al„ 1969). In addi-
tion to providing estimates of waterfowl num-
bers present on the breeding grounds each
year, these surveys provide data on annual
habitat conditions and indexes to expected
production. Information collected also satis-
fies, in part, an ever-increasing demand for
a historical data base from which to study
waterfowl population ecology.
Recently, Pospahala et al. (in prep.) sum-
marized the data obtained from the May Breed-
ing Ground Survey for the 1955-71 period. Our
report is a companion report presenting the
results of the July Production Survey for the
same time period. The purpose of this report
is to provide basic information to individuals
either directly or indirectly involved in water-
fowl management and research, and to rec-
oncile discrepancies in previously published
material relating to this survey. The July
Production Survey statistics presented in this
report supersede all information previously
published (primarily in Waterfowl Status
Reports).
SURVEY DEVELOPMENT AND TECHNIQUES
Development
Aerial surveys in May were initiated on an
experimental basis in 1947 when aircraft and
pilots first became available for such work,
and the July aerial surveys were begun in
1950. Williams (1948) first established that
aerial waterfowl surveys were sufficient to
adequately determine the annual status of the
waterfowl resource. The breeding range was
divided into strata on the basis of habitat type,
habitat stability, and waterfowl nesting density
for sampling purposes. Stewart et al.
(1958:364) discussed the allocation of sampling
units.
Initially, waterfowl breeding ground surveys
were concentrated in the southern portions of
the Prairie Provinces of Canada. Waterfowl
populations in three strata in southern Alberta
(74,612 square miles), five strata in southern
Saskatchewan (113,220 square miles), and two
strata in southern Manitoba (38,728 square
miles) have been sampled on a comparable
basis annually since 1955 (fig. 1). Four addi-
tional strata including 222,030 square miles
in the northern portions of the Prairie Pro-
vinces were added in 1959 and 1960, and in
1966, five strata in the Northwest Territories
(195,513 square miles) were included. July
Production Surveys were initiated in North
Dakota in 1958, and in South Dakota in 1959;
however, procedures employed in these first
surveys were not consistent with those in other
surveyed areas. Consequently, data collected
for the Dakotas prior to 1966 are not pre-
sented. Beginning in 1966, the Dakotas and
Montana are included, adding an additional
209,893 square miles of waterfowl habitat to
the survey. Portions of Ontario which were
Figure 1. -Strata for aerial surveys of waterfowl breeding grounds.
surveyed on an experimental basis for 4 years
in the early 1960's are also included.
Since 1966, approximately 855,700 square
miles of the North American waterfowl breed-
ing range have been sampled annually on an
operational basis by Bureau personnel and
other cooperators during the July Production
Survey. A description of the habitat in each
stratum is discussed in the companion report
by Pospahala et al. (in prep.). The present
surveys do not sample all of the waterfowl
breeding grounds in North America, but prob-
ably provide sufficient information for most
management decisions. Several State conser-
vation organizations provide additional insight
into production in areas not surveyed by the
standard July Production Survey. Similarly,
several of the Provinces have surveys; how-
ever, this report is limited to the discussion
of data obtained from the Bureau survey (see
Waterfowl Status Reports for data collected by
States and Provinces).
Techniques
GENERAL
During the July Production Survey, estimates
are made of the following waterfowl and habitat
conditions: (1) the number of Class I, Class II,
and Class III broods (Gollop and Marshall,
1954), regardless of species; (2) the average
number of ducklings in Class II and III broods;
(3) the number of paired and single (male and
female) ducks by species; and (4) the number of
ponds. Information on the numbers of pairs
and singles in breeding areas during July that
have not moved to moulting areas is used as
an indicator of the comparative amount of re-
nesting underway. The timing of the July Pro-
duction Survey is determined by the date on
which information must be available for the
U.S. regulations meetings, which occur in
early August. Therefore, not all young ha<ve
been hatched at the time field work is termi-
nated on about July 25 each year. Consequently,
an index to the number of young produced can-
not be calculated directly. Rather, the approach
taken is to obtain indexes relating to factors
which either affect or reflect current produc-
tion success when compared to similar data
collected during prior years.
The July Production Survey, like the com-
panion May Breeding Ground Survey, is con-
ducted from aircraft flying 100 to 200 feet
above the ground along linear routes or
"transects." The transects are divided into
segments 18 miles long for convenience in
summarizing data. The survey crew consists
of one person acting as a pilot-navigator-
observer, and another as an observer. Each
person records waterfowl data (broods and
single and paired adults by species) from a
strip one-sixteenth mile wide (110 yards) on
his side of the aircraft. One member of the
crew, usually the observer, counts ponds on
one side of the aircraft for a distance of one-
eighth mile (220 yards). Information collected
during the survey is recorded and transcribed
to data forms (flight sheets) at the end of the
day. Unidentified pairs and singles are allo-
cated among the identified in direct proportion
to the species and categories of the observed
birds. Sampling intensities vary greatly among
the various strata that have been defined on
the basis of habitat type, habitat stability, and
waterfowl nesting density. Strata in the prime
waterfowl habitat in the southern portions of
the Prairie Provinces of Canada range in size
from approximately 11,000 to 38,000 square
miles. The median date for conducting the
survey during the past 17 years has been July
12-15.
Forecasting production and the subsequent
fall flights of waterfowl are difficult, but
Geis et al. (1969) have reported on techniques
combining data collected from the two breed-
ing ground surveys in past years. A check is
available on the fall flight prediction, although
the information is not available until the fol-
lowing year. Age ratios in the harvest can
be adjusted for differential vulnerability to
hunting pressure to yield the age ratio in the
preseason population (a measure of produc-
tion) (Bellrose et al., 1961; 435; Kaczynski
and Geis, 1961). In this procedure we utilize
information collected during the Waterfowl
Harvest Survey, Wing-Collection Survey, pre-
season banding program, and May Breeding
Ground Survey. Presently, this analysis is
performed annually for mallards (Anas
platyrhynchos) only. Revised annual production
estimates for mallards, and estimates for other
species, are not available at this time, be-
cause the data are being reconstructed for use
in the Mallard Study (see Anderson andHenny,
1972). Rather than present recruitment rate
estimates for each year that may be in error,
no recruitment rate information obtained from
age ratios in the kill adjusted for differential
vulnerability will be presented.
SURVEY PROCEDURES
Procedures for conducting aerial waterfowl
surveys have been discussed by Crissey (1957)
and summarized by Stewart et al. (1958).
Details of the current survey instructions are
contained in the Bureau's "Standard procedures
for waterfowl population and habitat surveys,
Revised 1969." Diem and Lu (1960) and
Martinson and Kaczynski (1967) discuss many
of the problems associated with surveys of this
type, although the latter study primarily con-
cerns adjustments of aerial data available
only for the May Breeding Ground Survey.
Most of the associated problems relate to
observation difficulties associated with habitat,
water conditions, time of day, weather, and
differences in observer capability. In general,
adjustments to July Production Survey data
for these nuances are not possible at this time.
Since the appearance of early work on sampling
error associated with aerial surveys (see
Stewart et al., 1958), the approach has changed
and more recent techniques are presented by
Pospahala et al. (in prep.).
AIR-GROUND SURVEY
All ducks and broods on the transects can-
not be seen from the air; thus, adjustment
factors for visibility from the air are de-
sirable. It is well known that variation in the
proportion of birds seen is related to species
characteristics, cover, density of birds,
phenology, seasonal changes in water levels,
and changes in crew members. Furthermore,
brood data represent an aggregate estimate
of all species present; species-specific dif-
ferences are not measured. Average brood
size information may vary tremendously from
location to location, depending upon local con-
ditions, but also depending upon the species
composition of the breeding ducks present.
Therefore, a summary of the species compo-
sition of the ducks nesting in the southern
portions of the Prairie Provinces, the Dakotas,
and Montana, as determined from the May
Survey, is presented in table 1.
Table 1
. — Average ranking
of the
10 most common bree
^ding species of ducks in the southern portions of Alberta,
Saskatchewan, and Manitoba,
and in Montana,
and the
> Dakotas (from Pospahala
et al . , in prep . ) .
Location
Rank
Alberta (1955-71)
Saskatchewan (1955-71)
Manitoba (1955-71)
Montana (1965-71)
Dakotas (1960-71)
1
Mallard
26.0
Mallard
30.8
Mallard
25.8
Mallard
26.7
Blue-winged Teal
27-3
2
Pintail
19.3
Pintail
19.2
Blue-winged Teal
25.1
Pintail
18. 9
Pintail
18.0
3
Blue-winged Teal
11.3
Blue-winged Teal
15-9
Scaup
13-0
American Widgeon
13.9
Mallard
17.9
h
American Widgeon
10.8
American Widgeon
6.7
Pintail
8.2
Blue-winged Teal
12.7
Gadwall
13-5
5
Scaup
7.0
Scaup
6.3
Redhead
5.5
Gadwall
10.1
Shoveler
8.5
6
Shoveler
5.8
Shoveler
5.3
American Widgeon
1..7
Green-winged Teal
6.k
Redhead
5.0
7
Gadwall
5.5
Oadwall
It. 5
Ruddy Duck
U. 6
Shoveler
5.1
Ruddy Duck
3.1.
8
Green-winged Teal
5-5
Green-winged Teal
k.2
Green-winged Teal
3.6
Scaup
3.1
American Widgeon
2.2
9
Redhead
2-9
Redhead
2.9
Shoveler
3.1.
Ruddy Duck
1.1.
Green-winged Teal
1.8
10
Ruddy Duck
2.5
Ruddy Duck
2.0
Canvasback
2.1
Redhead
1.1
Scaup
1.1.
Percent
of Total Breeding
Ducks
96.6
97.8
96.0
99-1.
99-0
An attempt was made during the period
1961-64 to determine by intensive ground
beat-out methods the number of broods by
species on a series of short transects scattered
within the area surveyed by each aerial crew.
The aerial crews covered each of the transects
four times— twice in early morning and twice
in late morning. The purpose was to deter-
mine the proportion of broods by size and age
class, and the paired and single adults by
species actually present, that the aerial crew
was able to see and record. The method de-
pended upon the ground crew's ability to find
all broods and single and paired adults within
the transect, but it soon became evident that
this was not feasible. Even with intensive
coverage, the ground crews obviously missed
many broods, especially those species whose
escape mechanism often caused them to leave
the pond and hide in surrounding upland vege-
tation. Also, it became apparent that changes
from year to year in the density of emergent
vegetation in the ponds caused the ground
crews to find varying proportions of the broods,
which meant that their efforts did not result
in a useful index to the number of broods
present. For this reason, the July air-ground
comparison survey was discontinued after
the 1964 breeding season.
Nevertheless, an average of the data col-
lected during the 4 years did provide a crude
aerial visibility rate for broods that should
be reasonably comparable among the three
age classes. Since the ground crews did not
find all of the broods, the aerial visibility
rates are higher than they should be, and the
adjusted brood index is, therefore, too low.
The unadjusted brood index is presented first
in the body of this report, and is followed by
the adjusted figures. This will facilitate ease
in readjusting the figures at a later date if
more refined visibility rates become available.
The adjusted figures are still crude, but we
believe they are more meaningful than the
unadjusted data. Only the unadjusted brood
index counts are shown in the Appendix tables.
Air-ground comparisons in survey strata
to the north of the Canadian prairies, and in
the United States, have not been undertaken,
and therefore no adjustments to the brood
indexes could be made in these areas.
RECONSTRUCTION OF FILES
As a result of investigations into the con-
dition of aerial survey files associated with
the May Breeding Ground Survey (see Pospa-
hala et al., in prep.), July Production Survey
data were also examined. Discrepancies ap-
peared when previously published reports
were compared with available basic field data.
Consequently, all July Production Survey data
were carefully checked and resummarized.
In addition, several survey boundaries were
changed, and information collected from
partial segments (those less than 18 miles
long) was deleted.
The corrected and pooled southern Prairie
Province data on July ponds were not too
different from the "old" data except for 1955
through 1957 (fig. 2). Estimates pertaining to
broods and waterfowl indexes were less
seriously affected.
6_
z
o
— 3
Q
Z
o
Z 2.
I I "Old" July Pond Estimates
Revised July Pond Estimates
Figure 2. -A comparison of the estimated number of July ponds in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
before and after file reconstruction.
RESULTS
The chronological sequence in developing the
surveys throughout the breeding ground pro-
vides a logical outline for discussing the data
collected. Seventeen years of information are
now available from the southern Prairie Prov-
inces of Canada which, because of their water-
fowl densities, are the most important breed-
ing grounds. Crissey (1969) estimated that
annually an average of 57 percent of the mal-
lards and 47 percent of the total game ducks
in North America bred in this area during the
1955-64 period. The surveyed areas were
gradually expanded northward and southward
from the hub of breeding activity. The results
of the surveys in each portion of the breeding
range are discussed separately. Most manage-
ment decisions are made on the basis of infor-
mation collected in the southern Prairie
Provinces of Canada; thus, this area will be
discussed in more detail because, indeed, it
is the most important. The basic information
for the southern Prairie Provinces is pre-
sented in Appendix A; for northern Canada
and the Northwest Territories, in Appendix B;
and for North Dakota, South Dakota, and
Montana, in Appendix C. A small amount of
data from western Minnesota (1958-66) is
presented in Appendix D, and a small amount
of data from northwestern Ontario (1960-64)
is presented in Appendix E.
Southern Prairie Provinces
JULY POND COUNTS
The southern Prairie Provinces of Canada
(226,560 square miles) have a history of alter-
nating periods of water abundance and drought
(Lynch et al., 1963). The obvious importance
of the instability of the ponds and the probable
influence of water on waterfowl production
rates in the southern Prairie Provinces led to
the counting of ponds during the annual surveys
in both May and July. Lynch et al. (1963: 107)
wrote that ". . .the most durable of prairie
environments serve as an oasis of waterfowl
survival during periods of water deficiency,
and from which breeders can proliferate into
the 'intermittent' and eventually into the
'temporary' environments at such times as the
latter become available." Similarly, Dzubin
and Gollop (1972) concluded that the center of
mallard abundance occurs in a most unstable
and climatically unpredictable environment.
The center of the southern Prairie Provinces
(Saskatchewan) has the least stable water
levels, with its coefficient of variation of the
July pond numbers being approximately twice
that of either Alberta or Manitoba (table 2,
fig. 3). It is the periodic drying that makes
nutrients available and leads to high produc-
tivity of plant and animal biomass when water
is available. The estimated number of July
ponds in Saskatchewan ranged from a low of
193,000 in 1961 to a high of 2,039,000 in 1955.
Crissey (1963, 1967) and Gollop (1965) docu-
mented a direct relationship between pond
numbers and the number of mallards produced
in southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan,
and southern Manitoba. Water, indeed, is the
most crucial factor which influences waterfowl
production.
Table 2. — Summary of July pond estimates for the southern portions of
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.
Year
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Total
1955
770,656
2,039,359
636,363
3,kk6,378
1956
852,572
1,106,170
kl7,008
2,375,750
1957
57l»,220
665, 7k7
250,582
I,k90,5k9
1958
592, 5k5
396,656
519,166
1,508,367
1959
378,266
510,232
kl3,086
1,301,58k
I960
523,275
6l8,Tk6
37k ,982
1,517,003
1961
302,000
193,113
128,23k
623,3k7
1962
k69,kso
256,25k
225, koo
951,10k
1963
9115,628
718,1169
326,671
1,990,968
196k
"135,071
507,010
kk6,729
1,388,810
1965
1,095,337
915,765
390,189
2,k01,291
1966
593,268
1,079,018
kll,978
2, 08k ,26k
1967
725,61il
620,558
276,963
1,623,162
1968
380,26k
3k2,380
160,555
883,199
1969
1420,561*
960,087
353,679
1,73k, 330
1970
610,92k
1,728,21k
kl6,708
2,755 ,8k6
1971
6ii9 ,5UU
1,09k, 162
k05,68l
2,lk9,387
1955-62
Mean
557,873
723,285
370,603
1,651,760
1963-71
Mean
650,693
885 ,07k
35k, 373
l,890,lko
1955-71
Mean
607,013
808,938
362,010
1,777,961
Coefficient of
35-5
61.7
3k. 9
k0.3
Variation (X 100)
July Ponds/Square Mile
1955-62
Mean
7.k8
6.39
9-57
7.29
1963-71
Mean
8.72
7-82
9-15
8.3k
1955-71 Mean
8. U
7.1k
9.35
7.85
SAMPLING ERRORS IN THE MEASUREMENT
OF JULY PONDS
The estimate of the number of July ponds
present in each survey stratum is subject to
substantial sampling error. This is due to;
(1) the small sampling intensity (from 0.3 to
1.6 percent in the various strata in the southern
portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Mani-
toba); (2) the large variability that seems to be
associated with pond numbers; and (3) the
small number of transects in each stratum.
Estimates of the variability on the numbers
of July ponds were obtained by considering
the transects within a stratum as the basic
sampling unit. Confidence intervals were cal-
culated using a ratio method (Cochran, 1963:
163) where the transect length was used as
the auxiliary variable. Estimates of average
confidence intervals for the 1955-71 period
for strata in the primary Canadian breeding
areas are presented in table 3.
Ninety percent confidence intervals, as a
percent of the estimate, ranged from as low
as 1 7 percent to as high as t 73 percent for
an individual stratum in a particular year.
Generally, the largest variances relate to the
smaller or less important strata (e.g., stratum
28 in Alberta). Estimates of the total number
of ponds in the southern portions of Alberta,
Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have an average
confidence interval of + 37 percent (range 22-
63 percent, during the 1955-71 period).
BROOD INDEX (ALL SPECIES)
An index to waterfowl production is obtained
from the number of duck broods (Class I,
Class II, and Class III [from Gollop and
Marshall, 1954]) seen from the air. All previous
uses of the brood index have involved the total
brood count, irrespective of age classes or
species. It is known that some species, particu-
larly diving ducks, are more easily seen from
the air due to their behavioral traits. Further-
more, annual variation in vegetative cover may
20.
10
0
Alberta
•
Saskatchewan
X
Manitoba
D
Dakotas
®
Montana
1955 1956 1957
1959 1960
1962 1963 1964
YEAR
1965 1966 1967 1968
1970 1971
Figure 3. -Number of July ponds per square mile in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and in
the north-central United States, 1955-71.
also significantly affect the percentage of
broods seen from the air. Since broods usually
are not identifiable or designated by species,
and the percent of vegetative cover on the
ponds is not measured, adjustments for these
factors cannot be made. However, air:ground
comparisons made on a limited scale in the
southern Prairie Provinces during the years
1961-64 suggested that for all species com-
bined an average of approximately 10.7 per-
cent of the Class I broods, 32.3 percent of the
Class II broods, and 46.0 percent of the
Class HI broods were visible from the air.
Accordingly, the brood counts were adjusted
by these crude figures in an attempt to obtain
a more precise estimate of brood indexes.
Table 3. — Estimates of the average 90 percent confidence intervals
for July pond counts in the southern portions of Alberta,
Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71
90$
Confidence Interval
Province
Stratum
(as a
percent
of the estimate)
Alberta
26
27
28
21
22
54
Saskatchewan
19
20
21
22
23
17
24
37
49
30
Manitoba
aii
25
19
24
These data remain indexes, and should not be
misconstrued to mean anything else, particu-
larly in view of the unmeasured behavioral
and environmental factors. Unadjusted brood
counts, together with the percentage of broods
from each age class, are presented in table 4.
If more realistic adjustment factors become
available at a later date, these data may be
used as the base for modification.
Adjusted brood indexes for the southern
portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Mani-
toba are presented in table 5. The 17-year
pattern in brood indexes parallels that of the
July pond estimates. The Saskatchewan brood
index was the most variable, ranging from
143,000 to 2,161,000 (coefficient of variation
83.2 percent). Brood indexes for Alberta and
Manitoba were less variable (coefficients of
variation 31.9 and 47.1 percent, respectively).
The 17-year adjusted brood indexes for the
combined southern portions of all three Prairie
Provinces suggest that the number of ducklings
produced reached a peak in the mid-1950's,
reached a low in the early 1960's, and returned
to an intermediate level during the late 1960's
and early 1970's (fig. 4). Crissey (1963, 1969)
found a significant relationship between the
number of ponds in July in the southern
Table k.
-Summary of unadjusted brood index information for the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan,
and Manitoba, 1955-71.
Alberta
Sas
katchewan
Man:
Ltoba
Percent in
each
Percent in
each
Percent in
each
Unadjusted
Brood Index
a«
e-clas
s
Unadjusted
Brood Index
age-class
Unadjusted
Brood Index
age-clas
I II
s
Year
I
II
III
I
II
III
III
1955
358,1*31
7.8
1*5.0
1*7-2
2l*!*, Ill
2l*.5
1*8.8
26.7
21*, 318
29.7
37.1
33.2
1956
313,902
3.6
1*9.2
1*7.2
382,011
1*1*. 8
29.3
25.8
26,11*1*
2l*.9
1*5. S
29.5
1957
1.30,378
5.5
1*7.7
1*6.8
l*ll*,l*5l*
23.7
31.7
1*1*. 6
62,1*1*1
29.0
1*7.8
23.1
1958
^95,751
l*.8
51*. 3
1*0.9
269,1*98
30.9
1*1*. 8
21*. 3
68,123
1*1.5
32.2
26.2
1959
288,973
11.1
58.6
30.3
10l*,5l*9
27.6
39.9
32.6
33,215
61.5
31*. 1
1*.5
i960
229,030
10.0
56.9
33.1
121,687
30.8
1*2.1*
26.8
31*, 752
1*1.9
50.1
8.0
1961
279,972
8.2
!*!*.!*
1*7.1*
71,771*
22.7
33.1
1*1*. 3
32,581
30.3
58.8
10.9
1962
167,831
5.5
1*7.8
1*6.7
35,617
18.1
58.1*
23.5
16,752
37.1
1*7.7
15-3
1963
258,9^3
It. 7
1*9.0
1*6.3
1*6,102
20.1*
1*1.1
38.1*
33,502
ll*.l*
1*3.8
1.1.8
196U
21*7,687
3.2
77.1*
19.1*
67,1*93
19.1
59-0
22.0
26,536
32.0
55.3
12.7
1965
132,021*
21.2
51.2
27.6
1*7,31*2
21*. 9
51.2
23.8
23,032
39-1
60.6
0.3
1966
216,959
33.2
39.2
27.6
96,615
21.6
53.1*
25.0
31,1*99
27.2
60.5
12.3
1967
201,737
1*0.7
39-7
19.6
95,1*1*3
35.1
1*1.6
23.1*
31,073
62.8
33.8
3.1*
1968
120,1*62
33.1
1*8.7
18.2
79,111*
35.2
1*1.7
23.2
15 ,119
37-1
56.7
6.2
1969
207,377
3l*.l
1*2.6
23.3
177,91*5
ll*.8
52.9
32.3
25 , 306
36.3
51.3
12.1*
1970
121,137
23.3
1*3.9
32.8
130,991*
21*. 1
38.9
37-0
21,881*
72.0
26.1*
1.5
1971
121*, 631
39-6
36.1*
2l*.0
180,832
15.1
1*1.3
1*3.6
16,213
1*7.2
1*6.2
6.6
320,531* 7.1 50.5 1+2. 5 205,1*63
181,217 25.9 1*7.6 26.5 102,1*31
1955-62
Mean
1963-71
Mean
mIII'11 21*6,778 17.0 1*8.9 31*. 0 150,917
Coefficient
of Variation
(X 100)
1*3.8
75.9
Provinces and mallard production on a
continent-wide basis.
-Summary of adjusted brood index information for the southern
portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 1955-71
Adjusted Brood
Indexi/
Year
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Total
1955
1,128,536
1,069,922
113,015
2,311,1*73
1956
905,931
2,161,021
111*, 1*82
3,181,1*31*
1957
l,29lt,798
1,726,813
293,136
3,3ll*,7l>7
1958
1,1*96,985
1,295,009
371,066
3,163,060
1959
1,0114,862
1*73,081
229,3>>7
1,717,290
I960
782,635
581,151
196,152
1,559,938
1961
887 ,986
29 1» ,98k
159,399
1,3>>2,369
1962
505,079
Ul2,922
88,1*1.1.
736,1*1*5
1963
767,287
185,092
120 ,982
1,073,361
1961.
772,680
276,196
132,202
1,181,078
1965
550,318
209 ,808
127,623
887,71*9
1966
1,067,072
1*07, W
11*7,595
l,622,lUl
1967
1,101,781
1*81* ,772
217,307
1,803,860
1968
602,250
1*02,1*79
81,050
1,085,779
1969
1,039,910
662,777
132 ,9>>2
1,835,629
1970
5ll*,980
558,323
165 ,9!i0
1,239 ,2!"3
1971
667,002
657,920
97,097
1,1*22,019
1955-62
Mean
1,002,102
968,113
195,630
2,165,81*5
1963-71
Mean
787,031
1127,205
135,860
1,350,095
1955-71
Mean
888,21*1
681,750
163,987
1,733,977
Coefficient of 31.9
83.2
1*7.1
1*6.5
Variation (X 100)
Brood Index/Square Mile
1955-62
13.1*3
8.55
5.05
9.56
1963-71
10.55
3.77
3.51
5.96
1955-71
11.90
6.02
U.23
7.65
27.9 1*1.1 31.1
23.1* 1*6.8 29.9
25.5 1*1*. 1 30.1*
37,291 37.0 1*1*. 2 18.8
2l*,907 1*0.9 1*8.3 10.8
30,735 39.1 1+6.3 1U.6
1*7.0
1/ Assumes 10-7 percent of Class I broods, 32.3 percent of Class II
broods, and 1*6.0 percent of Class III broods are observed from the
air.
The mean brood index per square mile for
the 17-year period progressively declined
from west to east in the southern portions of
the Prairie Provinces (11.90 in Alberta, 6.02
in Saskatchewan, and 4.23 in Manitoba) (table
5). The difference appears to be independent
of ponds per square mile, because the respec-
tive 17-year means are 8.14, 7.14, and 9.35
(table 2). The phenology of the season is
earliest in Alberta, which may account for a
higher percentage of the broods being observed
(older age classes are easier to see from the
air). Furthermore, a higher percentage of the
broods may appear after the survey is com-
pleted in the east because the nesting season
there is later. Brood visibility may also vary
among Provinces, although the earlier season,
combined with some other unknown factors,
may lead to higher annual nesting success in
Alberta. Hunters in the Pacific Flyway have
enjoyed good populations of waterfowl and
liberal regulations for years and a high per-
centage of the birds they harvest are produced
in Alberta.
BROOD SIZE (ALL SPECIES)
The brood size of Class II and Class III
ducklings is counted during the survey in July
(table 6); however, it is not possible to segre-
gate the brood-size data according to species.
The mortality or brood-size decrease between
Class II and III is usually less than 10 percent,
and Stoudt (1971: 49-50) showed long-term
averages for mallards, canvasbacks, and blue-
winged teal of from 2 to 6 percent. Dzubin
and Gollop (1972) show losses in mallards of
from 3 to 10 percent between Class II and III.
A brood-size decrease of from 2 to 10 percent
is also shown in the Appendix tables. The small
difference between the two age classes pro-
vides a strong case for pooling the data and
using the two classes combined as an index
2500
Z 2000
<
I/)
o
z
x ,500-l
uj
Q
z
o
§ 1000
0J
[■!vl\l A I ber ta
1 I Saskatchewan
Manitoba
1962 1963
YEAR
1966
1968 1969 1970 1971
Figure 4. -Adjusted brood indexes in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.
Table 6. — Summary of Class II and Class III brood size data combined
for the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and
Manitoba, 1955-71-
Weighted-
Year
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Total
1955
6.08
6.62
5.62
6.27
1956
6.08
6.00
5.08
6.00
1957
6.32
6.03
5-6U
6. H
1958
6.35
It. 1)0
6.87
5.76
1959
li.23
1..28
5.53
lt.3lt
I960
6.12
It. 79
5.65
5.66
1961
5.82
I4.68
5.63
5.59
1962
5-59
5.115
5.09
5-53
1963
6.10
5-U7
5.li3
5.95
1964
5.91*
5.77
5. Oil
5.83
1965
6.23
5.90
5-58
6.08
1966
6.61
5.83
5.32
6.28
1967
5.83
5.1i2
5-17
5.65
1968
5.33
I1.90
It. 79
5.13
1969
6.32
5.61
6. oil
5.99
1970
5.1.8
5.37
5.6I1
5.I1I1
1971
5.93
5.21
It. 80
5.1*7
1955-62
Mean
5.82
5.28
5.6U
5.66
1963-71
Mean
5-97
5.50
5.31
5.76
1955-71
Mean
5.90
5.I1O
5-1*7
5.71
Coeffic
Lent of
9-2
11.6
9.1
8.3
Variation (X 100)
1/ Weighted according to the unadjusted brood Index In each province.
to brood size at fledging time. The mean
brood size (Class II and Class III combined) for
the 17-year period shows that broods are
larger in Alberta (5.90) and about the same
size in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (5.40 and
5.47, respectively). It appears that, in addition
to more broods being produced per square
mile in Alberta (table 5), the average brood
size is also larger (table 6). The species
composition of the breeding ducks in Alberta
and Saskatchewan is very similar (table 1).
Brood sizes in southern Saskatchewan had
the highest annual variation and the lowest
mean for the 17-year period. The annual brood
size in southern Saskatchewan and the number
of ponds in July per square mile were sig-
nificantly correlated (r = +0.62**, 15 d.f.).
No significant correlations were detected from
the data gathered in Alberta and Manitoba;
however, the combined brood size in the
southern portions of the three Prairie
10
Provinces also showed a significant correla-
tion with the number of July ponds per square
mile (r = +0.44**, 49d.f.). The average brood
size increased as the average number of July
ponds per square mile increased. Dzubin and
Gollop (1972) report that mallard broods are
highly mobile, and more ponds per square
mile in July would generally shorten travel
distance for broods in the event of a pond dry-
ing up. It appears that a closer proximity of
ponds obviates the loss of a lower percentage
of the ducklings during the prefledging period.
Many other biological factors (e.g., breeding
density, timing of production, etc.) and
climatological factors may have an effect on
brood size; therefore, an exceptionally high
correlation coefficient between the two vari-
ables was not expected.
LATE NESTING INDEX (ALL SPECIES)
Pairs and single drakes without broods
seen during the July survey are identified to
species, if possible. Together they comprise
the late nesting index, which is a measure of
renesting effort and nesting season chronology.
Flocked birds (three or more birds of different
sexes) and groups consisting of two or more
drakes are not counted.
To determine the importance and/or relative
changes in the late nesting effort, the late
nesting index must be evaluated in relation to
the size of the breeding population. The late
nesting indexes per 1,000 breeding mallards
and per 1,000 breeding other ducks present
during the May Survey are shown in table 7;
in figure 5 and figure 6, they are compared
with the quantity of July water in the south-
ern Prairie Provinces of Canada. One would
intuitively believe that a higher percentage of
ducks would renest if more water is available
in July. This appears to be the case, because
a highly significant positive correlation was
noted between the number of July ponds
and the late nesting index for mallards
(r = +0.72**), and for all other species com-
bined (r = +0.67**). In addition to a higher cor-
relation for mallards, the average late nesting
index per 1,000 breeders was also higher
(table 7). This is perhaps due to the mallards'
steadfast persistence in trying to produce a
brood. Hickey (1952) believed that considerable
renesting occurred with mallards, and Coulter
and Miller (1968) reported mallards being
much more persistent renesters than black
ducks (Anas rubripes ) in the same habitats.
During a 5-year period, Keith (1961) com-
pared numbers of pairs and numbers of nests,
and by knowing the percentage hatch on his
areas in Alberta, estimated that 100 percent
of the unsuccessful mallards on his study
area renested; however, only 82 percent of the
gadwall (Anas strepera), 75 percent of the
shovelers (Spatula clypeata), 55 percent of the
blue- winged teal (Anas discors), and 39 percent
of the lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) renested.
Table 7. — Late nesting index per 1,000 breeding mallards and per 1,000 breeding other ducks recorded during
the May Survey in the southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.
Breeding Populations (Thousands )!/ Late Nesting Index (Thousands) Late Hesting Index per 1000 Breeders
Years Mallards Other Ducks Mallards Other Ducks Mallards Other Ducks
1955
9,728.9
1956
10,508.9
1957
9,1*73.2
1958
12,1*57.0
1959
6,873.7
i960
6,796.0
1961
3,31*3.7
1962
2,755.9
1963
3,2ll*.l*
196!*
3,1*1*6.7
1965
2,596.7
1966
It, 129.0
1967
3,957.8
1968
3,760.0
1969
3,800.0
1970
5,218.7
1971
6,1*81.7
17 year
Mean
5,796.6
2l*,061*.l
23,836.1
19,271.0
l8,7l!*.0
17,1*73.1
15,81*3.3
11,986.7
8,373.1
7,866.1*
10,658.1*
8,517.0
lh, 733.1
ll* ,939.0
8,1*17.8
13,711.9
15,1*50.6
ll*,367.5
lit, 601.1*
219.2
106.1*
63.7
108.1*
72.6
100.5
30.6
20.1
36.2
36.2
73.7
68.2
1*9.0
1*3.9
70.3
11*1*. 6
101.5
79.1
352.1
227.2
97.6
210.9
ll*l*.9
136.0
1*1.2
25.5
80.2
63.1*
166.8
179-5
160.0
113.0
222.1*
357-7
272.6
167.7
22.5
10.1
6.7
8.7
10.6
lit. 8
9-
7.
11.
10.
28.
16.
12.1*
11.7
18.5
27.7
15.7
ll*.3
ll».6
9-5
5.1
11.3
8.3
8.6
3.1*
3.0
10.2
5-9
19.6
12.2
10.7
13.1*
16.2
23.2
19.0
ll.lt
1/ Data from Pospahala et al. (in prep.).
11
30.
65
7.°
25.
Y =2.498 + 6.623 X
r= +0.72**
r'=0.52
55
20-
d.(. = 15
69
J*v
15-
60
10-
68 /$
• / 5.s
9
5*
/*
57
5.
0
1 1
I
1
1
1
1
JULY PONDS (MILLIONS)
Figure 5. -Relationship between the late nesting index (mallards)
and the number of July ponds in the southern portions of
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.
25-
J =1.895 + 5 360X
7.°
r = + 0.67"
r' = 0.45
20 _
d.f. = 15
V
65
69
15-
68
55
10_
58,,
• 67
63
56
5-
^/^ 6i 62
*57
1 '
i
1
1
JULY PONDS (MILLIONS)
Figure 6. -Relationship between the late nesting index (all other
species) and the number of July ponds in the southern
portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, 1955-71.
RECRUITMENT RATE (ALL SPECIES)
Survey), the fall flight may be estimated if
the annual recruitment rate of the population
is known. Several procedures for estimating
the annual recruitment rate have been used
previously. During the 1950's and early 1960's,
estimating annual production was a partially
subjective procedure which weighed the re-
sults of the July Survey against the average of
past years (Crissey, 1957).
During the last 10 years, the Waterfowl
Harvest Survey, the Wing- Collection Survey,
the preseason banding program, and the May
Breeding Ground Survey have made possible
an estimate of the number of young pro-
duced annually; however, the information
is not available prior to the hunting season
(Kaczynski and Geis, 1961). It is significant,
however, that the procedure provides a basis
for judging the accuracy of predictions made
the previous July. In 1968, mallard production
rates presented at the regulations meetings
were estimated by a stepwise multiple linear
regression analysis (Geis et al., 1969). The
recruitment rates obtained a year in arrears
for the period 1955-to-date were used, to-
gether with a constant and four independent
variables (the number of July ponds, the conti-
nental mallard breeding population, the percent
of ponds existing from the May Survey to the
July Survey, and the index to the number of
unadjusted broods of all species), to predict
the recruitment rate for the current year. All
data bases used in this approach are currently
being reconstructed and corrected as part of
the mallard study. The information presented
in this report has resulted from the recon-
struction effort. These corrections should
improve our ability to estimate the numbers
of birds in the fall flight; however, all of the
necessary sets of data are not presently avail-
able. The results of the data reanalysis will
be incorporated into the mallard study.
The decisions pertaining to the annual water-
fowl regulations for the United States are made
in early August; therefore, fall flight fore-
casts must be made and appropriate regula-
tions set at that time. All information from
the May and July Breeding Ground Surveys is
available by late July and can be used to
predict the fall flight. Given the breeding
population size (from May Breeding Ground
Dzubin (1969) cautioned that any comparisons
between pond numbers and breeding pairs
should be tempered with data on pond size,
quality, and density; and that individual species
and not ducks as a whole should be compared.
We concur; however, the data available from
the aerial surveys cannot be subjected to such
an analysis. The broods seen from the air can-
not be identified to species, and time is not
12
available to record additional information re-
garding characteristics of the ponds. Relation-
ships between ducks per July pond and the
recruitment rate index, together with many
other correlations, would probably be more
significant if we could follow the approach
outlined by Dzubin.
Recruitment rates obtained from selected
long-term ground studies are presented be-
low. Intensive ground studies between 1952
and 1965 at Redvers, Saskatchewan —
apparently, one of the better waterfowl breed-
ing environments in Canada — provided the
following average production rate estimates
per adult; mallards, 1.4 young; pintails (Anas
acuta), 1.0 young; blue-winged teal, 1.6 young;
and canvasback (Aythya valisineria), 1.7 young
(Stoudt, 1971). Average production estimates
in the Alberta parklands (near Lousana) for
approximately the same time period (1953-65)
were somewhat lower per adult (assuming an
equal sex ratio of birds on breeding grounds):
mallards, 0.8 young; American widgeon
(Mareca americana), 1.4 young; blue-winged
teal, 1.6 young; and canvasbacks, 1.4 young
(Smith, 1971). Dzubin (1969) noted recruitment
rates for mallards in his Roseneath Study Area
(Manitoba) of 1.3, 1.5, and 1.1 immatures per
adult for 1952, 1953, and 1954, respectively;
however, in the grasslands (Kindersley,
Saskatchewan), the recruitment rate was much
lower (0.3 to 0.7 immatures per adult). These
data show that recruitment rates are quite
variable between species and between loca-
tions and years. Therefore, any set of statistics
which shows average recruitment rates for a
large area (i.e., southern Prairie Provinces
of Canada) and all species combined would be
expected to show only general patterns, at
best. Our recruitment rate estimates will
primarily (if not solely) be based on infor-
mation collected in the southern Prairie
Provinces of Canada, although the percentage
of game ducks nesting in the southern prairies
may be an important statistic.
Northern Canada and
Northwest Territories
Ponds are not counted during the survey in
the northern portion of the breeding range be-
cause water i3 much more stable. Although
the survey in northern Saskatchewan and
northern Manitoba was initiated in 1959, a
portion of this area was not surveyed the first
year. Therefore, comparable data are available
only for 1960-71. Production surveys in the
Northwest Territories began in 1966, with 6
years of data now available, while surveys in
northern Alberta began in 1969. See Appendix
B for strata summaries.
BROOD INDEX (ALL SPECIES)
All brood index figures are unadjusted be-
cause no air:ground comparisons have been
conducted to determine visibility rates. This
is partially due to the low density of breeding
waterfowl, the inaccessibility of the area, and
the great difficulty in making representative
ground censuses.
Brood indexes in northern Saskatchewan and
northern Manitoba increased after 1965, with
a peak reached in 1969; this was followed by
a marked decline in 1970 and 1971 (fig. 7). The
3 years of information from northern Alberta
show a similar decline in 1970 and 1971.
Brood indexes for the Northwest Territories
appear to fluctuate randomly, with no apparent
trends. Climatic factors in the north are more
rigorous, and weather may play an important
role there.
The breeding population of dabbling ducks
(from the May Survey) in northern Canada and
the Northwest Territories remained relatively
„
•
Alberta
Q
400^
-
Sai
katchewan & Man
loba
<
a
X
X
300.
°
No
thweil Territories
,\
o
Q
Z
a
O
2
Q
200.
A
•v.
-^
m
3
<
z
100-
j\
\
0.
1
I960 1961 1962 1963 1964
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
YEAR
Figure 7. -Unadjusted brood indexes in the northern portions of
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and in the Northwest
Territories. The dotted line indicates that no survey was
conducted in 1961.
13
490-337 O - 72 - 2
unchanged during the last 10 years (Pospahala
et al., in prep.); however, there was a large
emigration of drought-displaced ducks to the
Arctic in the late 1950's and early 1960's,
particularly in 1959 (Hansen, 1960; Crissey,
1963; Hansen and McKnight, 1964). A large
waterfowl breeding population (in excess of 30
million) on the prairies combined with a rapid
reduction of suitable breeding territories on
the prairies during the drought, was un-
doubtedly responsible for emigration. It is in-
teresting that, during the drought years in the
prairies, blue-winged teal, redheads (Ay thy a
americana), ruddy ducks (Oxyura jamaicensis),
canvasbacks, and shovelers were recorded in
Alaska either for the first time or in much
greater abundance than formerly (Hansen,
1960; Hansen and McKnight, 1964). Hansen and
McKnight concluded that, although some in-
dividuals can and will nest successfully under
displaced circumstances, not enough of them
do in order to maintain an abundance com-
mensurate with that attained in their normal
environment. Recently, Smith (1970) reported
a significant inverse relationship between
number of water areas on the prairies of
Alberta and Saskatchewan for the years 1959-
68 and the portion of the pintail population
moving north of the prairies and parklands.
Furthermore, as the portion of the pintail
population moving into the northern areas in-
creased, an index of annual production de-
clined significantly.
In addition to the major movement north in
1959, some evidence for northward movement
in 1964 is also available (Pospahala et al., in
prep.). A corresponding increase in the brood
index in the north was reported in 1964 (fig. 7).
Reasons for the continual increase in the
brood index in northern Canada between 1965
and 1969 are unclear, because the breeding
numbers observed during the May Survey re-
mained relatively unchanged. The 6 years of
combined information on brood indexes from
northern Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba,
and the Northwest Territories suggest an
abrupt increase in broods in 1968 (fig. 7), the
year when water levels in the southern Prairie
Provinces of Canada were exceptionally low
(less than 1 million ponds in July). Could a
portion of the southern prairie birds have
moved north after the May Survey was com-
pleted in the north? Smith and Hawkins (1948)
also discussed the possibility of late nesting
pairs moving into an area and not being
enumerated by a census conducted at one
interval. If this is the case, the decreased
water levels in the southern prairies between
1965 and 1968 may have been responsible for
the gradually increasing number of broods in
the north; likewise, the improvement of water
levels in the southern prairies in 1969-71 may
be responsible for the downward trend in
brood indexes in the north in recent years.
BROOD SIZE (ALL SPECIES)
Class II and Class III broods were com-
bined and the average brood size presented in
figure 8 for northern Saskatchewan and north-
ern Manitoba, and the Northwest Territories.
The average brood size appears to have in-
creased in recent years. A mean brood size of
5.38 was reported from northern Saskatchewan
and northern Manitoba during the years 1960-
71 — considererably lower than the 5.90 re-
ported from southern Alberta (table 6); how-
ever, it is very similar to the average reported
from southern Saskatchewan and southern
Manitoba (5.40 and 5.47, respectively).
i
-i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 —
I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Figure 8.- Annual brood size (Class II and Class III combined) in
northern Canada and the Northwest Territories. The dotted
line indicates that no survey was conducted in 1961.
14
LATE NESTING INDEX (ALL SPECIES)
Information concerning the late nesting in-
dex in northern Saskatchewan and northern
Manitoba is available for 11 years (since
1960). Systematic data collection during the
July production survey began in the Northwest
Territories in 1966, and in northern Alberta
in 1969 (fig. 9). The square miles surveyed in
northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba
roughly equal the area surveyed in the North-
west Territories (222,114 square miles vs.
195,513 square miles). Collectively, the late
nesting index in 1968 and 1969 nearly doubled
the levels of 1966 and 1967, but dropped
dramatically in 1970 and 1971. There was
virtually no late nesting index in the North-
west Territories in 1971.
.
Saskotch
swon
& Man
tobo
o
Northwes
t Te
ritorie
•
Alberto
— I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 —
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Figure 9. -Late nesting index in northern Canada and the
Northwest Territories. The dotted line indicates that no
survey was conducted in 1961.
North Dakota, South Dakota,
and Montana
JULY POND COUNTS
Pond numbers in Montana have remained
relatively stable (fig. 3), which is probably
because a high percentage are man-made
stock ponds. Pond counts in the Dakotas are
more variable, and have shown an upward
trend since 1968 which is similar to the trend
observed in the southern Prairie Provinces of
Canada. Only one to two water areas per
square mile are reported from Montana, while
approximately three to six per square mile
are reported from the Dakotas (see Appendix
C for additional details).
BROOD INDEX (ALL SPECIES)
It is of interest that the unadjusted brood
index per square mile in Montana is con-
sistently higher than the index in the Dakotas,
even though more than twice as many water
areas per square mile are found in the
Dakotas. The brood index in the Dakotas ranged
from approximately 50,000 to 90,000 during
the last 6 years, while indexes from Montana
ranged from 43,000 to 68,000. The surveyed
area in the Dakotas is nearly twice the size
of the surveyed area in Montana and has ap-
proximately four times the number of July
water areas. Ponds in Montana are mostly
open stock dams with little shoreline vegeta-
tion; however, the Dakotas have a portion of
the potholes completely covered with emergent
vegetation. Differing visibility rates are
probably responsible for at least part of the
observed differences.
BROOD SIZE (ALL SPECIES)
The 6-year average size for Class II and
Class III broods from the Dakotas was 5.82,
while the 5-year average from Montana was
considerably lower — 5.02 young. Most of the
duck broods in the Dakotas are blue-winged
teal, while the broods in Montana are pri-
marily mallards (table 1). Smith (1971; 39)
and Stoudt (1971: 47) have shown that blue-
winged teal broods are consistently larger
than mallard broods, which probably accounts
for the differences in average brood sizes
between the two locations. There is an indica-
tion that the average brood size in both
Montana and the Dakotas improved in 1969 and
1970 when the density of water areas per
square mile increased.
LATE NESTING INDEX (ALL SPECIES)
Only limited information is available re-
garding this parameter in Montana and the
Dakotas. The late nesting effort in Montana
appears to be much lower than the effort re-
ported from the Dakotas.
15
SUMMARY
Basic information obtained from the July
Waterfowl Production Survey is presented in
32 Appendix tables for the period 1955-71.
The discussion of the data is minimized be-
cause the report is designed primarily to
make the data available to waterfowl biologists
and other interested individuals. Data pre-
sented include: (1) the number of July ponds,
(2) the brood index, (3) the average size for
Class II and Class III broods, and (4)
the late nesting index. These statistics are
presented for each stratum surveyed. A
few of the obvious cor relations are dis-
cussed, although more refined analyses of
the data will be presented in the Mallard
Study reports. Furthermore, additional sup-
porting information will be available for the
mallard reports.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Numerous individuals have taken part in the
annual July Production Survey during the last
17 years as either pilots or observers, and
their work is gratefully acknowledged.
G. Hortin Jensen has participated in the sur-
vey each year since 1955, while Rossalius G.
Hanson has been a survey pilot for 16 of
these 17 years. Two other Flyway Biologists,
Morton M. Smith and Arthur R. Brazda, have
piloted survey planes for 10 years. Pilots and
observers who have worked with the survey
for 5 years or more include: K. Duane Norman,
Gerald Pospichal, Alva E. Weinrich, Richard C.
Droll, R. David Purinton, Glen V. Orton,
David W. Fisher, Joseph W. Perroux, Jr.,
and Charles D. Evans. Other participants in-
clude: James F. Voelzer, Edward G. Wellein,
Everett B. Chamberlain, Gust J. Nun,
J. Donald Smith, Robert H. Smith, Allen G.
Smith, Donald Combs, Floyd A. Thompson,
Donald N. Frickie, Joseph A. Serafin, BonarD.
Law, James L. Nelson, William Hyshka,
Joe M. Matlock, Robert W. Slattery, Richard A.
Gimby, Ralph Hancox, Maurice Lundy,
Thomas J. Harper, Edgar L. Ferguson,
Eugene V. Cofer, D. R. Halladay, N. G. Perret,
Walter S. Okamoto, Donald E. Wieland, Hugh V.
Hines, Ridley D. Duncan, Fred A. Glover,
D. J. Mcintosh, Marshall L. Stinnett, and Ralph
Von Dane.
The assistance of Morton M. Smith of the
Branch of Management, Division of Manage-
ment and Enforcement, in obtaining source
documents is very much appreciated. Also,
the current Flyway Biologists came to our
aid numerous times as questions about bound-
aries and survey procedures constantly arose.
Fortunately, several of the pilots have a long
tenure with this survey and their help was
particularly valuable. Walter F. Crissey, Alex
Dzubin, and Henry M. Reeves gave much ap-
preciated editorial assistance.
Clerical work in resummarizing 17 years of
the July Survey was a major task, and the fol-
lowing individuals are very much responsible
for the rapid completion of the project:
Judith P. Bladen, Colleen E. Bystrak,
Marcella M. Edwards, Samuel E. Fowler,
Marcia E. Henson, S. Kathleen Judy, Mary T.
LePore, and Deanna L. Light.
16
REFERENCES
Anderson, D. R., and C. J. Henny. 1972. Population ecology
of the mallard: I. A review of previous studies and the
distribution and migration from breeding areas. Resource
Publication 105, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., in press.
Bellrose, F. C, T. G. Scott, A. S. Hawkins, and J. B.
Low. 1961. Sex ratios and age ratios in North American
ducks. Illinois Nat. Hist. Surv. Bull. 27:[388M74.
Cochran, W. G. 1963. Sampling techniques. Second Edi-
tion. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 413 p.
Coulter, M. W., and W. R. Miller. 1968. Nesting biology of
black ducks and mallards in northern New England. Bull.
No. 68-2. Vermont Fish and Game Dept. 74 p.
Crissey, W. F. 1957. Forecasting waterfowl harvest by fly-
ways. Trans. N. Am. Wildl. Conf. 22:256-268.
. 1963. Exploitation of migratory waterfowl popu-
lations in North America. Proceedings European Meeting
on Wild Fowl Conservation, St. Andrews, Scotland.
1:105-120.
. 1967. Aims and methods of waterfowl research
in North America. Finnish Game Research. 30:37-46.
1969. Prairie potholes from a continental view-
point. Saskatoon Wetlands Seminar. Canadian Wildl. Serv.
Report Series. 6:161-171.
Hansen, H. A. 1960.
waterfowl in Alaska.
Changed status of several species of
Condor. 62:136-137.
Diem, K. L., and H. K. Lu. 1960. Factors influencing
waterfowl censuses in the parklands, Alberta, Canada. J.
Wildl. Mgmt. 24:113-133.
Dzubin, A. 1969. Comments on carrying capacity of small
ponds for ducks and possible effects of density on mal-
lard production. Saskatoon Wetlands Seminar. Canadian
Wildl. Serv. Report Series. 6:138-160.
Dzubin, A., and J. B. Gollop. 1972. Aspects of mallard
breeding ecology in Canadian parkland and grassland. Re-
search Report Wildlife No. 2, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., in
press.
Geis, A. D. 1963. Role of hunting regulations in migratory
bird management. Trans. N. Am. Wildl. and Nat. Res.
Conf. 28:164-170.
Geis, A. D., R. K. Martinson, and D. R. Anderson. 1969.
Establishing hunting regulations and allowable harvest of
mallards in the United States. J. Wildl. Mgmt. 33:848-
859.
Gollop, J. B. 1965. Wetland inventories in western Canada.
Trans. Internatl. Union Game Biologist. 6:249-264.
Gollop, J. B., and W. H. Marshall. 1954. A guide to aging
duck broods in the field. Mississippi Flyway Council Tech.
Sec, 14 p. (mimeo.).
Hansen, H. A., and D. E. McKnight. 1964. Emigration of
drought-displaced ducks to the arctic. Trans. N. Am. Wildl.
and Nat. Res. Conf. 29:119-127.
Hickey, J. J. 1952. Survival studies of banded birds.
Special Sci. Rept. Wildl. No. 15, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv.,
177 p.
Kaczynski, C. F., and A. D. Geis. 1961. Wood duck banding
program progress report, 1959 and 1960. Special Sci. Rept.
Wildl. No. 59, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., 41 p.
Keith, L. B. 1961. A study of waterfowl ecology on small
impoundments in southeastern Alberta. Wildlife Mono-
graphs No. 6. 88 p.
Lynch, J. J., C. D. Evans, and V. C. Conover. 1963. Inven-
tory of waterfowl environments of prairie Canada. Trans.
N. Am. Wildl. and Nat. Res. Conf. 28:93-109.
Martinson, R. K., and C. F. Kaczynski. 1967. Factors influ-
encing waterfowl counts on aerial surveys, 1961-66. Special
Sci. Rept. Wildl. No. 105, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., 78 p.
Pospahala, R. S., A. R. Brazda, R. C. Hanson, G. H. Jensen,
K. D. Norman, G. Pospichal, M. M. Smith, and J. F. Voelzer.
(in prep.). Aerial surveys of waterfowl breeding populations
in North America, 1955-71. Special Sci. Rept. Wildl.
Series. U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv.
Smith, A. G. 1971. Ecological factors affecting waterfowl
production in the Alberta parklands. Resource Publication
98, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., 49 p.
Smith, R. H., and A. S. Hawkins. 1948. Appraising water-
fowl breeding populations. Trans. N. Am. Wildl. Conf.
13:57-69.
Smith, R. I. 1970. Response of pintail breedirg populations
to drought. J. Wildl. Mgmt. 34:943-946.
Stewart, R. E., A. D. Geis, and C. D. Evans. 1958. Distribu-
tion of populations and hunting kill of the canvasback. J.
Wildl. Mgmt. 22:333-370.
Stoudt, J. H. 1971. Ecological factors affecting waterfowl
production in the Saskatchewan parklands. Resource Publi-
cation 99, U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., 58 p.
Williams, C. S. 1948. Waterfowl breeding conditions - sum-
mer 1947. Special Sci. Rept. No. 45, U.S. Fish and Wildl.
Serv., 101 p.
17
APPENDICES
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48
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1972 O-490-337
As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of
the Interior has basic responsibilities for water, fish, wildlife,
mineral, land, park, and recreational resources. Indian and Ter-
ritorial affairs are other major concerns of this department of
natural resources.
The Department works to assure the wisest choice in managing
all our resources so that each shall make its full contribution to a
better United States now and in the future.
UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
BUREAU OF SPORT FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE
WASHINGTON, D.C 20240
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
INT 423
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