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Full text of "Theories of decision making : an annotated bibliography"

LIBRARY 

OF THE 

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE 

OF TECHNOLOGY 



MASS. INST. TECH. 

.1111. t)l977 
DEWEY LIBRARY 



WORKING PAPER 
ALFRED P. SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 



THEORIES OF DECISION MAKING: 
AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 

Deborah Lines Andersen 
David F. Andersen 



WP 943-77 



June 1977 



MASSACHUSETTS 

INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 

50 MEMORIAL DRIVE 

CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139 



THEORIES OF DECISION MAKING: 
AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 

Deborah Lines Andersen 
David F. Andersen 

WP 943-77 J""^ 1^'^^ 



TABLE OF CONTENTS 



INTRODUCTION . . ... 

Background 1 

Structure of Literature 3 

Purpose 7 

Methodology 7 

Structure of the Bibliography 10 



THE BIBLIOGRAPHY 

I. Rational Decision Making (Economic Man) 

I. A. Normative Rationality 11 

I.B. Critiques and Extensions of Rationality 12 

I.e. Mathematical Models of the Rational Perspective 14 

I.C.I The "Systems" Approach 14 

I.e. 2 Decision Theory 14 

I.C.3 Simulation, Mathematical Programming, and M.I.S 15 

I.e. 4 Organizational Process and Mathematical Models 16 

II. Organizational Decision Making 

II. A. General Works on the Organizational Perspective 17 

II. B. Organizational Critiques of and Extensions to Rationality 18 

II. C. Organizational Aspects of Political Decision Making 20 

II. D. Psychological-Organizational Perspectives 21 

II. E. Mathematical Models of Organizational Decision Making ... 22 

III. Political Decision Making 

III. A. General Works on the Political Perspective 23 

III.B. Organizational Aspects of Political Decision Making .... 25 

III.C. Psychological Aspects of Political Decision Making 25 

III.D, Mathematical Models of Political Decision Making 25 

IV. Psychological Decision Making 

IV. A. General Works on the Psychological Perspective 26 

IV. B. Psychological Critiques of and Extensions to Rationality. 27 

IV. C. Psychological Aspects of Political Decision Making 27 

IV. D. Psychological-Organizational Perspectives 29 

IV. E. Mathematical Models of Psychological Decision Making .... 29 

V. Cross Perspective Views 

V.A. Readers 31 

V.B. Overview Articles, Monographs and Texts 32 

V.C. Analyses Explicitly Based on Multiple Perspectives 34 



75'~705 



ow-wey 






INTRODUCTION 

BACKGROUND AND SCOPE 

Much literature has been written on the subject of decision making. 
At various times bibliographers have sought to collect this information 
in a usable form. In 1958 Paul Wasserman and Fred S. Silander published 
an annotated bibliography on decision making. They felt that "in spite 
of an increasing rate of publication on the topic, the scientific study 
of decision-making appears to be at an early stage of development.,,. 
The literature's sum total is to be found in a widely scattered group of 
writings which cut across all the areas of social and scientific inquiry," 

Their bibliography is divided into eight sections which deal with various 

2 
factors in decision making and with the types of groups who make decisions. 

In 1959 William J, Gore and Fred S, Silander published "A Bibliographic 
Essay on Decision Making," Gore and Silander saw decision making as a 
fractured and conceptually incomplete body of literature, "a kind of con- 
ceptual wonderland full of magnificently intricate and promising devices 
but without any central or organizing concept," They set about to apply 
an organizing principle to the literature of decision making, dividing it 
into the behavioristic or organismic thread and the rationalistic thread. 
The organismic thread was subdivided into three additional areas. Their 
self-appointed task was to give structure to the chaos, since "critical 

raul Wasserman and Fred S, Silander. Decision Making ; An Annotated 
Bibliography , Cornell University: Graduate School of Business and Public 
Administration, 1958, p. iv, 

2 
Note: These headings, an indication of the structure of the litera- 
ture at the time, consist of: I, The decision-making process--general and 
theoretical material, II, Values and ethical considerations in decision- 
making, III, Leadership as a factor in decision -making, IV. Psychological 
factors in decision-making, V. Decision-making in small groups, VI. Com- 
munity decision-making, VII. Communications and information handling, and 
VIII. Mathematics and statistics in decision -making. 

nrfilliam J. Gore and Fred S, Silander, "A Bibliographic Essay on 
Decision Making," Administrative Science Quarterly h (1959)ff97-121, 

^Ibid,, p, 98, 



factors such as topology of decisions, models of various decisional 
processes, the function of ideology, and the basis of power and its gen- 
eration receive only infrequent and inadequate attention." 

In 1964 Paul Wasserman and Fred S. Silander updated their Decision 
Making : An Annotated Bibliography , producing a 178 page supplement to 
the original work, although "since many more citations can be found for 

the period 1958 to 1963 than for the earlier period, the present work 

2 
is considerably more selective." The bibliography uses the same basic 

structure as the original volume, although "modifications in this 
topical arrangement from the earlier work reflect the differences grow- 
ing out of the more recent directions of research and subsequent publi- 

3 
cation in the field." 

Most recently, R. Bandyopadhyay has published an article, "information 

4 
for Organizational Decisionmaking--A Literature Review." A bibliographic 

essay, the article divides the literature of organizational decision mak- 
ing into three areas: the classical school, the management science school 
and the behavioral science school. Underlining what those before him 



"'^ Ibid . , p. 121. 

2 
Paul Wasserman and Fred S. Silander. Decision-Making : An Annotated 

Bibliography , Supplement , 1958-1963. Cornell University: Graduate School 

of Business and Public Administration, 1964, p. iii. 

3 

Ibid . Note: Comparison with the earlier headings shows that there 

had been a change in the direction of the literature as seen by Wasserman 
and Silander. Their 1964 headings read as follows: I. Decision making — 
general and theoretical material, II. Leadership as a factor in decision 
making. III. Behavioral decision theory, IV. Decision making in small 
groups, V. Community decision making, VI. Communications and information 
handling, VII. Techniques and methods, and VIII. Cases, illustrations and 
applications. The most notable changes are the change from psychological 
factors to behavioral theory and the change from mathematics and statistics 
to actual cases and applications. The categories appear more clear cut 
and reflect the increased research in the field. 

R. Bandyopadhyay. "Information for Organizational Decisionmaking — 
A Literature Review." IEEE Transactions on Systems , Man , and Cybernetics 
7 (January 1977) pp. 1-15. 



*■*■ 



have pointed out, the author states in his first paragraph that "litera- 
ture on information relevant for organizational decision making is scattered 
over a wide variety of books and journals. The literature is not only 
voluminous but is also extremely varied, making comprehensive review a 
very difficult task." Thus, the area of decision making still seems 
wide open for bibliographers as well as researchers to organize and 
attempt to make sense of. 

STRUCTURE OF THE LITERATURE 

Historically, the field of decision making has gone through several 
stages. These stages can be characterized as 1) preoccupation with the 
rational, 2) critiques and extensions of the rational tradition, 3) crea- 
tion of fully articulated alternatives to the rational and, finally, 4) 
a multi -perspective view of decision making. In the early 1950s the 
decision making literature was preoccupied with rationality — either in the 
form of a political "single -actor" rational organization or as a rational 
economic man. This view saw that "decision is a deliberate act of selec- 
tion by the mind, of an alternative from a set of competing alternatives 

in the hope, expectation or belief that the actions envisioned in carrying 

2 
out the selected alternative will accomplish certain goals," The decision 

maker was seen as having the capability of looking at all possible choices 
and outcomes, weighing each, and then making an optimal decision based 
upon these deliberations. 

Critiques and extensions of the rational tradition began to appear 
in the next phase of decision making literature as scholars realized that 
neither man nor his organizations were capable of making decisions which 
took into account all possible alternatives, assessed all possible out- 
comes, and selected the optimal among such alternatives. Herbert A. Simon, 
for example, in Models of Man : Social and Rational , collected his essays 
which were "concerned with laying foundations for a science of «an that 

"^andyopadhyay, og, cit. , p. 1. 

2 
Peter C. Fishburn. "Personalistic Decision Theory: Exposition and 

Critique" in Henry S. Brinkers, ed. Decision - Making : C reativity , Judge - 
ment and Systems . Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1972, p. 19. 



will accommodate comfortably his dual nature as a social and as a 
rational animal." He aimed to "set forth a consistent body of theory 



of the rational and nonrational aspects of human behavior in a social 

2 
setting." Although not totally rejecting the rational point of view, 

he extended his ideas to include man as a social as well as a rational 
being. 

In the next stage of decision making literature, there was the 
preliminary articulation of full-fledged alternative views to the classi- 
cal rational tradition. Some of the extensions of rational theory had 
moved so far away from the original concept of rationality that they 
could no longer be considered modifications — they were entirely new 
views. Richard Cyert and James March, for example, introduced an 

organizational theory of decision making in A Behavioral Theory of the 

3 
Firm that was to replace the neo-classical economic theoiry of the firm. 

Synder, Bruck and Sapin posited an alternative political science theory 

of international decision making in Foreign Policy Decision Making ; An 

Approach to the Study of International Politics . The rational theory 

was either totally put aside in favor of these other views, or modified 

so substantially as to no longer be a purely rational view. Several 

decidedly non-rational views of the decision making process grew out of 

the literature of cognitive and perceptual psychology. 

Herbert A. Simon. Models of Man ; Social and Rational , Mathematical 
Essays on Rational Human Behavior in a Social Setting . New York: John 
Wiley and Sons, Inc., 19$7, p. vii. 

^Ibid. 

3 
Richard M. Cyert and James G, March. A Behavior al Theory of the 

Firm. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1955. 

Richard C. Snyder, H.W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, eds. Foreign 
Policy Decision - Making ; An Approach to the Study of International Politics . 
New York: Free Press of Glencoe, 1962. 

See: Robert Jervis. Perception and Misperception in International 
Politics . Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 197S^ 



As these alternate views of the decision making process began to 
emerge several attempts were made to integrate them. Finding a sense 
of fragmentation in multiple theories of decision making, scholars 
wished to reunite the field. One method of doing just this was to 
produce a reader which brought together articles of various schools of 
theory. Another method was to create a review article which would 

survey the field, showing the various theories which were in the liter- 

2 
ature. Finally, other writers produced monographs which attempted to 

produce an integrated whole. However, these works appeared to promote 

integration more by a unified writing style emphasizing some points of 

tangency rather than by a genuine unification of the multiple perspec- 

3 
tives. 

Finally, in 1969 Graham T, Allison articulated a multiple perspec- 
tive approach to the study of decision making. It seemed too premature 
to bring all the ideas together; instead each of the competing schools 
of thought should be more thoroughly examined in its own right. More 
time had to be spent looking at each of the theories and their assumptions. 
The various theories needed to be empirically tested on the same case to 
see exactly what differences were ijmplied by each of the separate perspec- 
tives. He proffered the idea that "different analysts, relying predomi- 
nantly on different models, produce quite different explanations which 
should encourage the analyst's self -consciousness about the nets he 
employs," In other words, there is not one theory, the theory, but 
decision making is multi-dimensional and the analyst needs multiple 
lenses, or points of view, in order to better understand the many complexly 
intertwined dimensions of the decision making process. 

See: Marcus Alexis and Charles Z, Wilson, eds. Organizational 
Decision Making , Englewood Cliffs, N.J,: Prentice-Hall, Inc, 196?. 

2 
See: Martin Shubik, "Approaches to the Study of Decision Making 

Relevant to the Firm," Journal of Business 3k (April 1961 )«a01 -118, 

3 
See: Ronald J, Ebert and Terence R, Mitchell, Organizational 

Decision Processes : Concepts and Analysis , New York: Crane, Russak, 1975, 

Graham T, Allison, "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," 
Political Science Review 63 (September 1969)p.71$, 



In 1971 Allison made an explicit elaboration of the multiple perspec- 
tives idea in The Essence of Decision ; Explaining the Cuban Missil e Crisis . 
The notion of explicit and contrasting theories or models of decision 
making began to receive attention in several fields of inquiry. John D. 

Steinbruner in The Cybernetic Theonr q£ Decision also employed and 

2 
elaborated upon this multiple perspective idea. 

A final dimension of complexity cutting across all of the four stages 
outlined above was the appearance of a mushrooming collection of techni- 
cal works in the form of mathematical game theory, statistical decision 
theory and computer based decision aids, such as management information 
systems, and mathematical programming and simulation. The use of the 
computer and other mathematical techniques was applied to decision 
analyses of many theoretical persuasions in order to allow more explicit 
formulations of decision making models. All modera schools of thought 
concerning decision making have at least one mathematical component. 
However, it is safe to say that mathematical formulations tend to lean 
toward the normative and the rational. 

The existing bibliographies and bibliographic essays on decision 
making, as noted above, approach many facets of the subject from small 
group to community decision making, to decision making within organiza- 
tions. None specifically concentrates on the explicit articulation of 
multiple theories or models of decision making that may be more or less 
valid simultaneously. This bibliography attempts to bring together 
some of the major divergent views to foster cross-disciplinary multiple 
views of decision making. That is, the view fostered by this new line 
of research is that decision making is intrinsically characterized by 
multiple perspectives. 



Graham T. Allison. The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban 
Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown^and Company, 1971. 

2 

John D, Steinbmner. The Cybernetic Theory of Decision : New Dimen - 
sions of Political Analysis . Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 
197177 



PURPOSE 

There is an apparent need for a paper structuring the field of 
decision making. The authors of this particular paper have taken a 
look at a segment of the material available on decision making. The 
bibliography is both selective and restricted to the material available 
at the Dewey Library of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 
Since the materials here are specifically those found within M.I.T.'s 
Dewey Library, the greatest use will be to those students who work within 
the Sloan School. It is clear to the authors that this paper is an 
initial attempt at structuring the field along the lines of simultaneous 
multiple theories and that research in the field will be a continuing 
effort. 



METHODOLOGY 

The initial research for this work started with a primary reference 
search. It was felt by the authors that five books presently structured 
the field. Other possible sources were discussed and it was decided 
that the search would be restricted to Dewey Library, to literature 
published between 1957 and 1976 (one year before Wasserman's Supplement 
to the present) and to generally published pieces of writing. (Thus, 
working papers and dissertations are not included here.) 



Note: these five works were: Cyert and March. A Behavioral Theory of 
the Firm . 1963; Allison. The Essence of Decision . 1971; Steinbruner. The 
Cybernetic Theory of Decision . 1974; Braybrooke and Lindblom. A Strategy 
of Decision : Policy Evaluation as a_ Social Process . 1970; and Axelrod. 
Structure of Decision : The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites . 1976. 



8 



These initial five works and their bibliographies, in particular^ 
produced not only a list of pertinent journal articles and monographs but 
also a list of those journals and authors who have concentrated on 
various views of decision making. The next step in the search was to 
search the Dewey card catalogue for materials pertinent to decision 
making (although there is no specific heading for "theories of") and 
works by these authors who appeared to be at the center of the field. 
In each case, as a citation was taken down and as an annotation for the 
particular book or article made, the bibliography of each piece of liter- 
ature was searched for new material. After considerable searching the 
same citations began to reappear in bibliographies, indicating that some 
amoxmt of closxire was being obtained within the topic. It became apparent 
that many authors were relying upon a core of literature, and indeed 
much of it was related to that original list of authors. 

Journals were searched in several ways. There were some that 

apparently had much infonmation on decision making, considering the 

frequency with which their articles were cited elsewhere. These journals' 

indexes were searched, 1957 to present, to gather more information. 

The following indexing and abstracting services were also consulted to 

allow for articles that had not been cited elsewhere: 

Business Periodicals Index 

So cial S'cience Citation Index 

Sociological Abstracts 

Sociology Readers Index (Abrarason and Sofios; 2 vol\imes) 

Again, as with the monographs, each article's bibliography was consulted 

2 
to gather up additional information. 

Finally, several members of the M.I.T. community were consulted who 
are involved in similar research (decision making, theories and models). 
They were able to provide bibliographies from unpublished working papers 
and from their own knowledge of the structure and literature of the field. 

The result of this research is a selected, annotated bibliography 
which stnictures the field of decision making along the lines of various 

"T^ote: The authors are those listed on page 7 and Herbert A. 
Simon who was cited often in the literature. The journals consisted of: 
Administrative Science Quarterly ; Interfaces ; Policy Sciences and Theory 
and Decision . 

2 
All references given in the following bibliography have been examined 

by this author. 



theories which have arisen concerning how Individuals, groups, and 
organizations make decisions. In many instances it was difficult to 
tell specifically into which category a particular article or book 
fit--as has been noted, the literature is not segmented into neatly 
defined categories. Although this bibliography does not claim to be 
comprehensive, it is an attempt at structuring decision making literature 
along lines that have not been used before but that have been implied 
if not suggested by major researchers in the field. 



10 



STRUCTURE OF THE BIBLIOGRAPHY 

As a final note, the literature in this bibliography is organized 
by discipline. After that it is organized by the overlap between disci- 
plines. And finally it is organized by the mathematical models of 
decision making since mathematics appears to cut across all disciplines. 

The literature is nonetheless indistinct in that it does overlap 
so much between disciplines. Therefore, the bibliography attempts to 
reflect this indistinct nature of the literature by doing much cross 
referencing. Each reference has been housed in one category and then 
cited again in others where it also seems to belong. These secondary 
citations have been abbreviated to cut down on the bulk of the work, 
using only author(s) , an abbreviated title, date, and a note as to the 
section where the full citation and annotation can be found. This 
author felt that abbreviated secondary citations were preferable to com- 
plete reiterations of the reference for each source. The bibliography 
is more honest in that the actual number of distinct references is more 
apparent when second and subsequent citings are abbreviated. 



There are 91 annotations here but 138 citations total; thus an 
overlap of 47 cross references reflecting the multi disciplinary nature 
of the literature. 



11 



BIBLIOGRAPHY 



I. RATIONAL DECISION MAKING (ECONOMIC MAN) 

I. A. NORMATIVE RATIONALITY 

Allison, Graham T. The Essence of Decision . 1971. (See Section V.C.) 

Fishburn, Peter C. "Personalistic Decision Theory: Exposition and Critique" 
in Brinkers, Henry S., ed. Decision Making : Creativity Judgement and 
Systems . Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1972, pp. 19-41. 
A personalistic decision theory is defined wherein an individual 
searches out all available alternatives, assesses individual preferences 
and expected utilities, and only then arrives at a decision. 

Friedrich, Carl J., ed. Rational Decision . New York: Atherton Press, 1964, 
228 pp. 

A collection of articles from the annual meeting (1962) of the American 
Society for Political and Legal Philosophy is presented. The volume 
"presents the student of philosophical politics with the vast and 
inexhaustable problem of rationality in its relation to decision-making." 

Kassouf, Sheen T. Normative Decision Making . Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : 
Prentice-Hall Inc., 1970, 88pp. 

"This volume is aimed at providing a clear and concise introduction 
to modern ways of conceptualizing the decision-making process." The 
work is not intended to produce specialists, but rather to acquaint 
the reader with the fundamental principles of decision making under 
uncertainty. 

Kaufmann, Arnold. The Science of Decision Making : An Introduction to 
Praxeology . New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1968, 256 pp. 
This work is a polemic promoting "praxeology" or the science of 
decisions for dealing with the complexities of the modern age. It 
forms a broad and popular introduction to probability, uncertain games, 
sequential decision processes, and simulation — not much depth is 
apparent anywhere. 

Weber, Max. The Theory of Social and Economic Organizations . New York: 
The Free Press, 1964, 436 pp. 

In a penetrating cross-cultural analysis of forms of social and 
economic organization, Weber posits rationality as a normative 
keystone to modern western culture. This early work (the cited 
work is a translation and republication) set the frame for much of the 
preoccupation with a rational and normative view of decision making 



12 



that was to occupy students of both economics and public administration 
until after the second world war. Alternative models of decision 
making initially emerged as critiques of normative Weberian rationality. 



I.B. CRITIQUES AND EXTENSIONS OF RATIONALITY (See also II. B. Organizational 

Critiques and Extensions of Rationality and IV. B. Psychological Critiques 
of and Extensions to Rationality) 

Baumol, William J. and Quandt, Richard E. "Rules of Thumb and Optimally 
Imperfect Decisions." American Economic Review 54 (March 1964) pp. 
23-46. 

Baumol and Quandt attempt to modify the normative optimizing model of 
pure rationality. Borrowing on Simon's notion of "satisficing" rather 
than optimizing, they argue that it is possible to evaluate rules of 
thumb to see which ones produce "optimally imperfect decisions." This 
measure of optimal imperfection takes into account the "cost" of 
gathering more information to make a more globally rational choice. 
The study is an exercise in extending a rational theory of decision to 
include cost of information and less-than-perf ect rule of thumb decision 
algorithms. The authors conclude that "no serious recommendations can 
be offered to anyone who is responsible for pricing decisions in 
practice. " 

Frledrich, Carl J. Rational Decision . 1964. (See Section I. A.) 

Lindblom, Charles E. "The Handling of Norms in Policy Analysis " in Abramovitz, 
Moses and others. The Allocation of Economic Resources . Stanford: 
Stanford University Press, 1959, 244 pp. 

This essay is addressed to the question of how do economists handle 
norms or the evaluation of alternatives in their policy analyses. Three 
more specific sub-questions are asked: 1) How can non-commeasurable 
outcomes be weighed in some fashion? 2) How can values be made operation- 
al enough so that an analyst may rank-order policy alternatives? and 
3) How can economists arrive at agreement on value weighting and 
policy ranking schemes? Utility theory is examined and found wanting. 
Behaviorally , Lindblom argues that the total value problem is consider- 
ably simplified by many methods such as eliminating some values from 
consideration or only attempting to order a small set of incrementally 
different alternatives. The process of breaking apart the valuation 
process or "fragmentation" is suggested to be the mechanism that 
economists and analysts use to avoid the global valuation problem, 

Shubik, Martin. "Approaches to the Study of Decision Making Relevant to 
the Firm." 1961. (See Section V.B.) 

Simon, Herbert A. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice " in Models of Man ". 
Social and Rational : Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behavior 



13 



in a Social Setting . New York: John Wiley and Sons Inc., 1957. 
A classic article. Simon begins with an elegant mathematical formulation 
of the globally rational decision process. This global process is 
simplified in three ways: 1) Simplified pay-off functions. 2) Partial 
ordering of pay-offs. 3) Inclusion of "cost" of information gathering. 
This rigorous modification of a globally rational model to make it more 
in line with human behavior is a precursor to Simon's notion of 
"satisf icing" and Cyert and March's Behavioral Theory of the Firm . 
Simon's penetrating and mathematical probe into the bases of the 
rational theory lays the foundation for much of the behavioral theories 
that were to follow. 

Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man . 1957. (See Section V.A.) 

Simon, Herbert A. "Theories of Decision Making in Economics." American 
Economic Review 49 (June 1959) pp. 253-283. 

Simon presents a critique of the classical "economic man." In slow 
moving markets characterized by low complexity, near-perfect competition, 
and information, the assumptions implicit in the value maximizing 
static economic model may make sense. However, in fast-moving complex 
markets, a more detailed elaboration of the behavior of rational man 
becomes necessary. Specifically, Simon examines 1) The applicability 
of utility functions. 2) Whether or not profit maximization is an 
adequate description of the goals of a firm. 3) Does "economic man" 
account fully for conflicts of interest, and 4) Has the value maximizing 
theory fully explained the process of expectation formation. Simon 
concludes that theories of rational man must become more behaviorally 
elaborated. 

Tannenbaum, Robert. "Managerial Decision Making " in Porter, Donald E. and 
Applewhite, Phillip B. , eds. Studies in Organizational Behavior 
and Management . Scranton, Pa.: International Textbooks, 1964, 741pp. 
Tannenbaum notes that analysts can not afford to stop at the rational 
theory since it is next to impossible to describe the mental processes 
which culminate in decisions. The necessity for making decisions arises 
out of the fact that knowledge of relevant existing facts is inadequate 
and that the future is uncertain — individuals can never have complete 
knowledge of all factors underlying their choices." Individual 
behavior is intrinsically non-rational. 

Wendt, Dirk. "Some Criticism of Stochastic Models Generally Used in Decision 
Making Experiments." Theory and Decision 6 (May 1975) pp. 197-212. 
Wendt 's criticism of such models is based upon the facts that they 
are: 1) Not appropriate in a variety of situations. 2) In all their 
consequences too complicated to be used by human subjects. 3) Composed 
of conditions that are hard to test and it is doubtful if they are ever 
met at all, and 4) Too strict for the prediction of human behavior. He 
points out areas where more research is needed. 



14 



I.e. MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE RATIONAL PERSPECTIVE 



I.C.I The "Systems" Approach 

Benton, John B. Managing the Organizational Decision Process . Lexington, Mass.: 
Lexington Books, 1973, 271 pp. 

This work examines "in theory and practice the keys to a successful organ- 
izational experience with the newer techniques of planning, analysis, 
and decision making." Chapter headings include: alternative program sets, 
program planning, preferred courses of action, and systems analysis. 

Brauers, Wim K. Systems Analysis , Planning and Decision Models : With Special 
Reference to National Defense . Amsterdam: Elsevier Scientific Publishing 
Co. , 1976, 167 pp. 

The "cost-effectiveness paradigm for decision-making is presented. "The 
defense problem is approached as a system to which systems analysis is 
applicable and systems analysis is then defined as a tool to assist 
decision makers in making a choice by systematically examining and reexamining 
the relevant objectives of the system and of the alternative policies or 
strategies for attaining them." 

Hitch, Charles J. Decision Making for Defense . Berkeley, California: University 
of California Press, 1965, 83 pp. 

A series of four lectures on a systems approach to decision making in the defense 
environment is presented. The work provides an interesting introduction 
to the field, but little technical detail is provided. Topics include: 
1) Defense posture 1789-1960. 2) Planning-programming-budgeting. 3) Cost 
effectiveness. 4) Retrospect and prospect. 

Quade, E.S. Analysis for Military Decision . Chicago: Rand McNally and Company, 
1964, 382 pp. 

These seventeen essays are rewrites of lectures given at RAND in 1955 and 
1959 summarizing the state of the art of "systems analysis" for military 
planning. The volume is not intended to teach operations research material, 
but rather give an appreciation for the technique's strengths and limitations. 
The collection contains case studies as well as overviews of theory. The 
technical aspects of the material is somewhat dated. 



I.e. 2 Decision Theory 

Archer, Stephen H. "The Structure of Management Decision Theory" in Rappaport , 
Alfred. Information for Decision Making: Quantitative and Behavioral 
Dimensions . Englewood-Clif f s N.J. : Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1970, pp. 3-19. 
The work discusses varying degrees of information and how managers must 
deal with them. Emphasis is laid upon the notions of certainty, risk, 
and uncertainty. Problem areas for future study in decision theory are outlined, 



15 



Chernoff, H. "Rational Selection of Decision Function." Econometrika 22 
(October 1964) pp. 422-4A3. 

A highly normative procedure is derived for deducing how a rational 
analyst would properly choose a decision function. Rationality is 
defined in terms of nine postulates. 

Fishburn, Peter C. "Even Chance Lotteries in Social Choice Theory." Theory 
and Decision 3 (October 1972) pp. 18-40. 
A lechnically complex discussion of alternatives and preference in theory 
of social choice i« p*«3<rvW. 

Kassouf, Sheen T. Normative Decision Making . 1970. (See Section I. A.) 

Pratt, John W. , Raiffa, Howard and Schlaifer, Robert. Introduction to Statistical 
Decision Theory . New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1965. 
"This book is a Bayesian introduction to mathematical statistics, i.e., 
an introduction to the mathematical analysis of the problems which arise 
when the consequence of action depends on the uncertain 'state of the world' 
and the decision maker has obtained or can obtain additional information 
about the state of the world by sampling or experimentation." Calculus is 
required for this text. 

Raiffa, Howard. Decision Analysis : Introductory Lectures on Choices Under 

Uncertainty . Reading, Mass^ Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1970, 309 pp. 
A classic textbook on mathematical decision making under uncertainty. 
Topics include utility theory, decision trees, judgemental probabilities, 
risk sharing, and group decisions. 

Taylor, Michael. "The Problem of Salience in the Theory of Collective Decision- 
Making." Behavioral Science 15 (September 1970) pp. 415-430. 

A model is developed of collective decision making by any voting body choosing 
among multi-attribute or multi-dimensional alternatives. Emphasis is upon 
the problem of salience — preference ordering of alternatives. 

White, D. J. Fundamentals of Decision Theory . New York: North-Holland, 1976, 
387 pp. 

This is a text treating the logical-mathematical aspects of decision 
for second and third year mathematically inclined economics students. Included 
are solutions to problems and references. Topics treated include: decision 
theory, probabilities, efficient solutions, game theory, group decision 
making, and value of information. 



I.e. 3 Simulation, Mathematical Programming, and M.I.S. 

Berners-Lee, CM., ed. Models for Decision. London: The English Universities 
Press Ltd., 1965, 149 pp. 
This reader presents a range of mathematical models developed to support decision 



16 



making processes. The reader consists of a series of papers presented 
at a conference sponsored by the U.K. Automation Council. Four classes 
of models are presented — forecasting of demand, planning and production, 
manpower and organizational planning, and economic planning. This volume 
is more concerned with mathematics and less concerned with describing real 
decision-making processes in detail. 

Feigenbaum, Edward A. and Feldman, Julian. Computers and Thought . 1963. 
(See Section IV. E.) 

Forrester, Jay W. "Industrial Dynamics — A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers, 
Harvard Business Review 36 (July-August 1958) pp. 37-66. 
An early description by one of the founders of the field of how computer 
modeling could revolutionize managerial decision-making. Managers will 
have a "better ability to see where present company practices will lead" 
and will be able to "redesign [policy] so it stands a better chance of 
success." 

Kaufmann, Arnold. The Science of Decision Making . 1968. (See Section I. A.) 

Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man . 1957. (See Section V.A.) 

Sprague, R.H. and Watson, H.J. "MIS Concepts (Decision Models)." Journal 
of System Management 26 (January 1975) pp. 34-37. 

Here is an article on management information systems to facilitate decision 
making within an organization. It discusses problems which must be 
overcome before models can be used within an organization — decision 
support systems and the like. 



I.e. 4 Organizational Process and Mathematical Models. 

Little, John. "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus." 
Management Science (April 1970) pp. B466-B485. 

Little examines the relatively poor track record of managment science 
applications to date. He asserts that the interface between modeler and 
manager is being neglected. Useful models that can bridge this gap must 
be simple, easy to control, adaptive, as complete as possible, and 
easy to communicate with. An example of such a model, drawn from marketing 
is presented. 

Urban, Glenn L. "Building Models for Decision Makers." Interfaces 4 (May 1974) 
pp. 1-11. 

A seven stage process for building formal models to support decision making 
is presented: 1) Formulation of priors. 2) Entry. 3) Problem finding. 4) Spec- 
ification of model development criteria. 5) Model building. 6) Estimation 
and fitting. 7) Tracking. After all this follows continued use. The formal 
modeler must remain aware of these various processes which for the most 
part are grounded in principles of organizational decision making. 



17 



II. ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING 



II. A. GENERAL WORKS ON THE ORGANIZATIONAL PERSPECTIVE 



Allan, Harry T. "An Empirical Test of Choice and Decision Postulates in the 
Cyert and March Behavioral Theory of the Firm." Administrative Science 
Quarterly 11 (1966) pp. 405-413. 

Allan presents an empirical corroboration of Cyert and March's Behavioral 
Theory of the Firm . This study, based upon the standard operating 
procedures surrounding the appeals process in the American legal system, 
suggests that the theory of Cyert and March may be more broadly applicable 
to organizations than to just firms. 

Allison, Graham T. The Essence of Decision . (See Section V.C.; especially 
pay attention to his "Model II") 

Carter, E.Eugene. "The Behavioral Theory of the Firm and Top Level Corporate 
Decisions." Administrative Science Quarterly 16 (1971) pp. 413-428. 
Top level corporate planning decisions are examined in the framework 
of Cyert and March's Behavioral Theory of the Firm . Based upon the 
study, extensions are suggested to the basic organizational theory of 
Cyert and March. 

Cyert, Richard M. and March, James G. A Behavioral Theory of the Firm . 
1963. (See Section II. E.) 

March, James G. and Simon, Herbert A. Organizations . New York: Wiley and 
Sons, Inc., 1958, 262 pp. 

In 1958, there was very literature put together in a formal way that 
might be called a theory of formal organizations. March and Simon 
set out to fill that gap by creating this work — a theoretical treatise 
in the form of a set of interlinked propositions on organizations. Topics 
treated include motivation, conflict, cognitive limits to rationality, and 
planning and innovation. This work brought together much of the scattered 
work on formal organizations and opened the door for the establishment 
of a separate and distinct field for the study of organizations. 

Meyer, Marshall W. "The Two Authority Structures of Bureaucratic Organization, 
Administrative Science Quarterly , 13 (September 1968) pp. 211-228. 
"Decision making authority is more highly centralized as the number of 
subunits in an organization increases; but as the number of levels of 
supervision grows, there is greater decentralization and at the same time 
proliferation of rules that specify criteria to guide decisions." 

Mintzberg, Henry, Raisinghani, Duru and Theoret, Andre. "The Structure of 
'Unstructured' Decision Processes." Administrative Science Quarterly 
21 (June 1976) pp. 246-275. 
Twenty-five decisions observed by graduate students are placed into a 



18 



coherent framework in an attempt to articulate a structure that appears 
to underlie this diverse set of seemingly unstructured decisions. Three 
principle- phases are seen as composing the overall process — the identification, 
development, and selection phases. The identification phase contains the 
decision recognition and diagnosis stages. Development consists of 
search routines and design routines. Finally, the selection phase is 
composed of screening, evaluation, and authorization routines. The framework 
is a handy conceptual device for thinking about the organizational 
processes underlying decision making. 

Rubenstein, Albert H. and Haberstroh, Chadwick J. Some Theories of Organization . 
1966. (See Section V.A.) 

Simon, Herbert A. Administrative Behavior ; A Study of Decision Making Processes 
in Administrative Organizations , New York: Macmillan, 1965 (2d ed.), 259 pp. 
In this early work, Simon lays out, albeit in a broad brush and less precise 
fashion, the major foundations of the organizational model of decision 
making as it emerged at the Carnegie school in the 1950s and 1960s. This 
by now classic approach begins with an examination of a normatively rational 
model of choice (chapter IV), procedes to show why individual human choice 
can not be objectively rational and demonstrates how organizational factors 
structure the decision-making situation for individuals and hence to a 
large degree pre-determine decision outcomes. 

Simon, Herbert A. "On the Concept of Organizational Goal." Admini s t r a t i ve 
Science Quarterly 9 (June 1964) pp. 1-22. 

Simon grapples with the elusive concept of an organizational goal. The 
following definition is proposed; a goal is composed of constraints or 
sets of constraints, imposed by the organizational role, that have only 
an indirect relation with the personal motives of the individual who 
fills the role necessary to act upon such goals. Furthermore, the 
organizational decision making mechanism is a loosely coupled, partially 
centralized structure in which different sets of constraints may impinge 
on decisions at different organizational locations. 

Simon, Herbert A. The Science of the Artificial. 1969. (See Section I.B.) 



II. B. ORGANIZATIONAL CRITIQUES OF AND EXTENSIONS TO RATIONALITY 



Braybrooke, David and Lindblom, Charles E. A Strategy of Decision . 1970. 
(See Section V.B.) 

Cyert, Richard M. , Dill,W.R. and March, James G. "The Role of Expectations 

in Business Decision Making." Administrative Science Quarterly 3 (1958) 
pp. 307-340. 

A critique is presented of the neo-classical economic theory of the firm 
approach to decision making. The neo-classical view posits that the 



19 



firm is a profit maximizer such that resources are allocated to a given 
purpose until expected marginal return equals expected marginal cost. 
The theory is critiqued for four reasons: 1) The classical theory 
assumes continuous competition among alternatives. 2) Search activity 
is viewed as simply another element competing for resources. 3) The 
neo-classical theories require excessive computational abilities on the 
part of decision makers. 4) Expectations are exogenously given. Four 
case studies, forming the bulk of the analysis, corroborate these 
criticisms. 

Cyert, Richard M. , Simon, Herbert A. and Trow, Donald B. "Observation of a 

Business Decision" in Rubenstein, Albert H. and Haberstroh, Chadwick J., 
eds. Some Theories of Organization . Homewood, 111.: Dorsey, 1960, 
492 pp. 

A case study is presented wherein a medium sized manufacturing firm decides 
whether or not to acquire electronic data processing capabilities. The 
authors argue that the open-ended or unprogrammed decisions differ 
substantially from more well-defined programmed decisions. The classical 
theory of economic decision-making does not seem particularly valid for 
unprogrammed decisions. Specifically, rational economic theories of 
choice fail to account for 1) Search for alternative and information 
gathering processes that to a large degree determintwhich options are 
considered, or 2) Communication and information sharing processes 
within the organization. Preliminary definition of an alternative 
theory of decision making (to be elaborated in Behavioral Theory of the 
Firm ) is outlined. 

Lindblom, Charles E. "The Science of 'Muddling Through'." Public Administration 
Review 19 C pring 1959) pp. 79-88. 

This essay begins with a critique of the rational-comprehensive (root) view 
of decision making. Instead of such a rational view, the essay argues 
that in an empirical sense decisions probably consist of successive 
limited comparisons between only a few options (branch view) . An 
argument is made that the non-synoptic decision processes may do quite 
well toward (better than anyone might think) toward arriving at "best" 
decisions because limited comparisons can best deal with complex value 
and interest questions that seem to permeate public policy design. 

March, James G. and Simon, Herbert A. "The Concept of Rationality" in Singer, 
Joel D., ed. Human Behavior and International Politics ; Contributions 
from the Social-Psychological Sciences. Chicago: Rand McNally, 1965, 466 pp. 
First a brief sketch of the classical theory of rationality is laid out. 
Then some difficulties with that theory are presented — most notably that 
the alternatives and consequences considered are often conditioned by social 
and organizational factors. Finally the notions of routinized problem solving, 
problem-directed search, and satisf icing vs. optimal decisions are introduced. 

Simon, Herbert A. Administrative Behavior . 1965 (especially chapter 4) . (See 
Section II. A.) 



20 



Simon, Herbert A. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice." 1957. (See 
Section I.B.) 

Wildavsky, Aaron and Hammond, Arthur. "Comprehensive Versus Incremental 
Budgeting in the Department of Agriculture." Administrative Science 
Quarterly 10 (December 1965) pp. 321-346. 

This is a thorough and interesting case study of the first application 
of "zero based" budgeting within the Department of Agriculture in 
1962. Ultimately, most personnel resorted to incremental evaluation 
of alternatives finding global comparisons of all projects impossible. 
However, the whole exercise seemed useful because of many "unintended 
side-effects" on organizational behavior. Zero based budgeting did 
not work as intended because "comprehensive budgeting vastly overrates 
man's limited ability to calculate and grossly underestimates the 
importance of political and technological constraints." Summary 
conclusions concerning how to best manage innovations such as zero 
based budgeting are presented. 



II, C. ORGANIZATIONAL ASPECTS OF POLITICAL DECISION MAKING 



Allison, Graham T. and Halperin, Morton H. "Bureaucratic Politics: A 

Paradigm and Some Policy Implications." 1972. (See Section III. A.) 

Braybrooke, David and Lindblom, Charles E. A Strategy of Decision . 1970. 
(See Section V.B.) 

Crecine, John P. "A Computer Simulation for Municipal Budgeting." 1967. 
(See Section III.D.) 

Crecine, John P. Governmental Problem Solving , 1969. (See Section III.D.) 

Gerwin, D. "Towards a Theory of Public Decision Making." Administrative 
Science Quarterly 14 (March 1969) pp. 33-46. 

This study is an empirical examination of the school budget-setting 
process. It relies heavily on the budget-simulation of Crecine — in 
turn derivative from Cyert and March's Behavioral Theory of the Firm — 
for much of its theoretical under pinnlngs. A key goal of the budget- 
setting organization is the reduction of conflict. Based upon the case 
study, a list of seven interesting generalities concerning the budget 
setting process is derived, 

Lindblom, Charles E, The Intelligence of Democracy : Decision Making 

Through Mutual Adjustment . New York: The Free Press, 1965, 352 pp. 
The central theme within this work that caps much of Lindblom' s earlier 
writing is the notion of mutual adjustment. Simply put, mutual adjustment 
means that "people can coordinate with each other without anyone's 
coordinating them, without a dominant central purpose." The notion of 
mutual adjustment is the backbone of an economy of markets and also forms 
the basis for the evolution of common case law. Lindblom argues that 
public policy also results from mutual accommodation between partisan 



21 



actors. The argument is made that mutual accommodation, rather than 
"clogging up" the works of a centralized policy process, is perhaps 
one of the dominant forces leading to workable policy formation. Con- 
siderable attention is given to a comparison of central coordination 
and mutual accomiwodation as policy processes. 

Lindblom, Charles E. "The Science of Muddling Through." 1959. (See Section II. B.) 

Pettigrew, Andrew M. The Politics of Organizational Decision Theory . 
London: Tavistock, 1973, 302 pp. 

The second chapter of this volume focuses on "Decision Making as a 
Political Process". Subheadings under this discussion include, 
the organization as a political system, power and organizational decision 
making, and theoretical bearings. The overall thrust of the essay argues 
that "within decision making processes, power strategies are employed 
by the various interested parties through their demands... The final 
decision outcome will evolve out of the processes of power mobilization 
attempted by each party in support of its demands." 

Schick, A. "A Death in the Bureaucracy: The Demise of Federal PPB." Public 
Axlministration Review 33 (March-April 1973) pp. 146-156. 

This is a recount of the political story surrounding the death of program 
planning and budgeting in the federal government in 1971. The PPB 
advocates failed to win a way into the routine budgeting procedures of the 
federal government because its advocates were not sensitive to the established 
political and organizational routines--another blow is struck against 
rationality in favor of incrementalism. Political and organizational 
factors are cited as the cause of the death of PPB. 

Steinbruner, John D. The Cyberneti c Theory of the Firm . 1974. (See Section V.C.) 

Ugalde, Antonio. "A Decision Model for Study of Public Bureaucracies." Policy 
Sciences 4 ( ^73 ) pp. 75-84. 

The "series of decision" concept is defined. Thatris, a decision is 
really a string of decisions — usually of two types — programming and 
implementation decisions. A case study from the health ministry of Colombia 
Is presented. 

Wildavsky, Aaron and Hammond Arthur. "Comprehensive Versus Incremental 

Budgeting in the Department of Agriculture." 1965. (See Section II. B.) 

Wohlstetter, Roberta, Pearl Harbor : Warning and Decision . Stanford, Calif.: 
Stanford University Press, 1962, 426 pp. 

This is a detailed empirical analysis of the communication, warning, and 
other organizational policy systems that left the United States totally 
surprised after the Pearl Harbor attack. 



II. D. PSYCHOLOGICAL-ORGANIZATIONAL PERSPECTIVE (See Section IV. D. Psychological- 
Organizational Perspective) 



22 



II. E. MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING 

Allan, Harry T. "An Empirical Test of Choice and Decision Postulates in 

the Cyert and March Behavioral Theory of the Firm." 1966. (See Section II. A.) 

Benton, John. Managing the Organizational Decision Process . 1973. (See 
Section I.C, portion on "the systems approach".) 

Cyert, Richard M. and March, James G. A Behavioral Theory of the Firm . 
Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Printice-Hall, Inc., 1963, 332 pp. 
This seminal work presents an alternative to the neo-classical economic 
theory of the firm. It pulls together many of the critiques of rational 
decision making and insights into organizational processes that had been 
generated in the late 1950s and early 1960s at the Carnegie School of 
Industrial Administration. In this work, a computer simulation model of 
the processes underlying organizational choice is constructed. Organizations 
are seen as consisting of multiple subunits each of which pursues a 
parochial set of goals and interests. Each subunit does not strive for 
optimal strategies. Instead it seeks to attain satisfactory strategies 
that meet the constraints imposed by the environment. The theory is 
empirically verified by a computer simulation of retailing in a large 
chain store. 

Cyert, Richard M., March, James G. and Feigenbaum, Edward A. "Models in a 

Behavioral Theory of the Firm." Behavioral Science . 4 (1959) pp. 81-95. 
This article is a precursor to the more general Behavioral Theory of the 
Firm. It lays out a computer simulation of a duopoly market based upon 
a behavioral theory of decision making. Model output is validated against 
actual industry data. This is an early landmark in the organizational 
school of decision making. It plugs a hole (that is duopoly theory) 
that had existed in the more rational economic theory of the firm. 

Forrester, Jay W. "Industrial Dynamics — A Major Breakthrough for Decision 
Makers." 1958. (See Section I.C.) 

Little, John. "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus." 

(See Section I.C, portion on organizational processes and mathematical 
models) . 

Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man . 1957. (See Section V.A.) 

Urban, Glenn L, "Building Models for Decision Makers." 1974. (See Section 
I.e., portion on organizational processes and mathematical models.) 



23 



III. POLITICAL DECISION MAKING 

III. A. GENERAL WORKS ON THE POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE 

Allison, Graham T. The Essence of Decision . 1971. (See Section V.C.) 

Allison, Graham T. and Halperin, Morton H. "Bureaucratic Politics: 
A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications." World Politics 24 
(Supplement 1972) pp. 40-79. 

This article elaborates Allison's Bureaucratic Politics model to 
include bureaucracies as actors in the political "game." This model 
represents a blending and enrichment of Allison's MODEL II (organi- 
zational) and MODEL III (bureaucratic politics). The result is a 
rich theory of international relations. Numerous examples are drawn 
from recent U.S. defense cases. Specific prescription in the form 
of precepts is given for U.S. policy planners. 

Frankel, Joseph. The Making of Foreign Policy ; An Analysis of Decision 
Making . London: Oxford University Press, 1963, 231 pp. 
This is a theoretical treatise outlining foreign policy making as a 
process of decision makings The author contrasts this "theoretical" 
approach to a more historical or descriptive approach. Separate 
topics impacting upon the decision making process such as international 
environment, domestic environment, information, values, the organi- 
zation of values, and choice are treated in more detail. 

Gore, William J. Administrative Decision Making ; A Heuristic Model . 
New York; John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1964, 191 pp. 
Gore begins by noting the importance of decision making for under- 
standing organizational output. He argues that the available images 
of "rational systems" are inadequate explanations of real decision 
processes. He procee4s to erect an alternative model of decision 
making that evokes an organismic image of an organization caught in 
a never ending attempt to reach equillibrium with its operating 
environment. The metaphor of "tension web" is used to describe 
a prime motivator of organizational actions. 

Lindblom, Charles E. The Policy-Making Process . Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: 
Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1968, 122 pp. 

Here Lindblom explores the fundamental question of what is the 
"underlying process by which policy is made?" He views policy making 
as an extremely complex and messy political bartering process. The 
role of analysis in the policy process is brought into a severe 
questioning light. This is an interesting exploratory essay that 
appears to open up many more questions than it answers. 

Rosenau, James N. "The Premises and Promises of Decision-Making Analysis" 
in Charlesworth, James C, ed. Contemporary Political Analysis . 
New York: The Free Press, 1967, pp. 189-211. 



24 

Rosenau traces the history of the introduction of "decision making" 
as a primary organizing concept in the political science literature. 
Beginning with Snyder's work in 1954, he traces a host of empirical 
studies that borrow from the decision making concepts but do not 
explicitly use specific properties of Snyder. He concludes that 
the decision making approach as originally formulated is conceptually 
rich but lacking in a detailed field of empirically testable hypo- 
theses. 

Snyder, Richard C, Bruck, H.W. and Sapin, Burton, eds. Foreign Policy 

Decision-Making : An Approach to the Study of International Politics . 
New York: The Free Press at Glencoe, 1962, 274 pp. 
This volume is a reprint and expansion of the author's earlier 
monograph, Decision->faking as an Approach to the Study of International 
Politics . The original work proposes that the fields of psychology 
(individual cognitive and personality factors) and sociology (organi- 
zational factors) be applied to the study of international politics. 
The approach was novel and seminal in its generation of insight. 
However^ the work suffers because many of the frames and categories 
presented have not been fully integrated » This volume also presents 
criticisms of and further empirical work based upon the earlier 
monograph. 

Snyder, Richard C. and Paige, Glenn D. "The United States Decision to 

Resist Aggression in Korea: The Application of an Analytical Scheme," 
Administrative Science Quarterly 3 (December 1968) pp. 341-378. 
A case study of the U.S„ decision to resist aggression in Korea is 
presented. This empirical study is based upon an amalgamated theory 
of decision making. The essential theme emphasizes the interplay 
between organizational and individual "intellectual" factors. The 
behavior of foreign policy makers is controlled by four sets of 
factors: 1) organizational-individual factors, 2) internal (domestic) 
settings, 3) external setting and 4) properties of the individual 
situation under question. The study concludes that the U.S. did 
decide to resist Korean aggression with military force. 

Sorensen, Theodore C. Decision-Making in the White House : The Olive 

Branch or the Arrows. New York: Columbia University Press, 1963, 
94 pp. 

This work presents the thesis that the president's decisions are 
shaped by the nature of his office. There is a discussion of various 
factors, political, economic, etc. which influence presidential 
decision making. Stress is placed upon the concept that the decisions 
of the president affect an enormous number of people — a factor which 
necessarily colors the decision making process in the White House. 

Steinbruner, John D. The Essence of Decision. 1971. (See Section V.C.) 



25 



III.B. ORGANIZATIONAL ASPECTS OF POLITICAL DECISION MAKING (See Section 
II. C. Organizational Aspects of Political Decision Making) 



III.C. PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF POLITICAL DECISION MAKING (See Section 
IV. C. Psychological Aspects of Political Decision Making) 



III.D. MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF POLITICAL DECISION MAKING 

Axelrod, Robert M. A Framework for a^ General Theory of Cognition and 
Choice. 1972. (See Section IV. E.) 

Axelrod, Robert M. The Structure of Decision . 1976. (See Section IV. C.) 

Crecine, John P. "A Computer Simulation Model for Municipal Budgeting." 
Management Science 13 (July 1967) pp. 786-815. 

The article presents a "positive" empirical theoi^ of municipal 
budgeting. Based upon the Carnegie school's developing theory 
of decision making as organizational process, a computer simula- 
tion of the municipal budgeting process is developed. This 
article is a condensation of Crecine's longer work, A Computer 
Simulation of Municipal Budgeting . 

Crecine, John P. Governmental Problem Solving ; A Computer Simulation 
of Mtmicipal Budgeting . Chicago: Rand McNally and Co., 1969, 
338 pp. 

After extensive interviewing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, 
an explicit theory of how the municipal budget setting process 
occurs is posited. The theory focuses on the internal organiza- 
tional behavior of the various sub-units involved in the decision 
making process. The formal theory is codified into a formal 
computer simulation. Model output is compared to actual decisions 
as a test of model validity. This study is a classic in the theory 
of municipal budgeting. 



26 



IV. PSYCHOLOGICAL DECISION MAKING 



IV. A. GENERAL WORKS ON THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE 

Alutto, Joseph A. and Belasco, James A. "A Typology for Partici- 
pation in Organized Decision Making." Administrative Science 
Quarterly 17 (March 1972) pp. 117-125. 

In a study conducted in two separate school districts among 454 
faculty members there was found the "universal desirability of 
increased participation in decision making." The study concludes 
that there is a relationship between the number of decisions 
an individual wishes to participate in and the number that he 
actually does participate in. 

Axelrod, Robert M. "Schemata Theory: An Information Processing Model 
of Perception and Cognition." The American Political Science 
Review 67 (December 1973) 

The article states that the source of a message is important for 
its credence. It shows a flowchart by which a message gets 
sifted from one areas to another, i.e. into a schema. If the 
interpretation of where the evidence, the information, belongs 
is wrong, then, through satisficing, a new schema is found. If 
the original schema was successful, the information becomes more 
"grooved" into it. 

Brim, Orville, Glass, David C. , Lavin, David E. and Goodman, Norman. 

Personality and Decision Processes . Stanford: Stanford University 
Press, 1962, 336 pp. 

Data is collected in the form of a questionnaire from 200 
parents in a decision making simulation concerning decisions 
around child rearing. The data is coded to demonstrate how parents 
performed on each of ten dimensions that characterized "rational" 
decision making. This data is correlated with multiple measures 
of parents' personalities and background in an attempt to determine 
how personality variables contribute to the decision making process. 

Miller, G. "The Magic Number 7+2: Some Limits on Our Capacity for 
Processing Information." The Psychology of Communication (1967) 
pp. 14-44. 

Miller whimsically considers many of the fundamental limitations of 
the human mind in terms of our ability to process information. 
Based upon a multitude of empirical studies he observes that 
short term memory and other information processing functions 
of the mind seem to be limited to seven (plus or minus two) separate 
"chunks." The notion of limits to human cognitive ability is a 
central theme in cognitively based models of human decision processes. 
He presents a fine review of Tiuch of the literature as applied 
to cognitive decision making. 

Thordarson, Bruce. Trudeau and Foreign Policy . 1972. (See Section IV. C) 



27 



IV. B. PSYCHOLOGICAL CRITIQUES OF AND EXTENSIONS TO RATIONALITY 

Miller, G. "The Magic Number 7+2: Some Limits on Our Capacity for 
Processing Information." 1976. (See Section IV. A.) 

Siegel, Sidney. "Level of Aspiration and Decision Making." Psychological 
Review 64 (July 1957) pp. 253-262. 

Siegel argues that the results of behavioral psychology should be 
integrated into formal mathematical descriptions of decision making. 
Specifically the notion of level of aspiration of the subject and 
reinforcement attained from reaching a level higher or lower than 
the level of aspiration should be incorporated into the utility 
functions of individual decision makers. 

Slovic, Paul. "Limitations of the Mind of Man: Implications for Decision 
Making in the Nuclear Age." Oregon Research Institute Research 
Bulletin 2 (1971) 

Slovic discusses decision making as it pertains to nuclear events, 
mentioning such items as biased judgements of probal^_J.istic events, 
correlation and cause, probablistic judgements and quantifying 
uncertainty. A final point: with nuclear energy perhaps we can 
not rely on a trial and error approach to decision making. 

Wendt, Dirk. "Some Criticism of Stochastic Models Generally Used in 
Decision Making Experiments." 1975. (See Section I.B.) 



IV. C. PSCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF POLITICAL DECISION MAKING 

Axelrod, Robert M. "Argumentation in Foreign Policy Decision-Making: 
Britain in 1918, Munich in 1938 and Japan in 1970." Institute of 
Public Policy Studies Discussion Paper, # 90, the University of 
Michigan, 1976. 

Axelrod completes a causal analysis of the transcripts for all 
three cases, looking at the role of argumentation in each case, 
as it pertained to the decision making at the time. 

Axelrod, Robert M. , ed. The Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps 
of Political Elites . Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 
1976, 404 pp. 

In this collection of essays a set of empirical techniques for 
determining the cognitive maps of political elites, that is, how 
political leaders tend to causally think about the world, are 
presented. Several empirical studies are also presented wherein 
the cognitive maps of key decision makers or groups of decision 
makers have been assessed and analyzed. The theory underlying 
this approach is that by better understanding the causal maps 
actually employed by decision elites and by promoting their 
explicit articulation, better decisions can result. Several essays 
present mathematical techniques for analyzing the strategic conse- 
quences of the empirically derived cognitive, causal maps. 



28 



Bonham, G.M. , Shapiro, M.J. and Nozicka, G.J. "Cognitive Process 

Model of Foreign Policy Decision Making." Simulation and Games 7 
{W<c) pp. 123-152. 

The authors set about to show that rational decision making can 
not possibly take into account the fallible nature of man in 
making decisions. Over five years they worked to develop a 
"cognitive process" model of policy decision making which would 
reflect man's ability to make irrational choices. 

Holsti, Ole R. "Crisis, Stress and Decision Making." International 
Social Science Journal 23 (1971) pp. 53-67. 
Holsti completes a review of the experimental psychological 
literature on human reactions to crisis situations. From these 
research findings he attempts to extrapolate what effects crises 
situations will have on political decision makers. He concludes 
that crisis induced differences in decision making abilities "are 
likely to inhibit rather than facilitate the performance of those 
engaged in the complex tasks of making foreign-policy decisions." 

Holsti, Ole R. "The 'Operational Code' Approach to the Study of Political 
Leaders: John Foster Dulles' Philosophical and Instrumental Beliefs." 
Canadian Journal of Political Science 3 (March 1970) pp. 123-157 
Holsti studied Dulles' writings to assess his operational code. 
He establishes five philosophical and five "instrumental" questions 
or beliefs that Dulles considered when in a decision making 
situation. 

Jervis, Robert. Perception and Misperception in International Politics . 
Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976. 

Jervis reviews the bodies of psychological literature on perception 
that appear to be relevant to understanding decision making 
processes in international politics. The emphasis is upon a 
detailed psychological description of the perceptual biases that 
intelligent concerned statesmen may tend to make in the face of 
highly uncertain and ambiguous decision making environments. The 
conclusions argue that to as large a degree as possible, decisions 
due to implicit perceptual biases should be replaced by explicit 
and more reasoned judgements. Several techniques for attaining 
this end are presented. The volume presents a good review of 
the psychological literature of decision making. 

Steinbruner, John D. The Cybernetic Theory of the Firm . 1974. (See 
Section V.C.) 

Thordarson, Bruce. Trudeau and Foreign Policy : A Study of Decision 
Making . Toronto: Oxford University Press, 1972, 231 pp. 
This work completes an exhaustive analysis of the political philo- 
sophy of Pierre Trudeau as one of the major elements contributing 
to Canada's reexamination of its foreign policy (resulting in a 
shift toward "isolationism") between 1968 and 1970. The psycho- 
logical factors specific to Trudeau are weighted against a series 
of environmental factors associated with 1) Canada's decision to 
review foreign policy in 1968 and 2) Canada's reduction in its 
commitment to NATO in 1969. 



29 



IV. D. PSYCHOLOGICAL-ORGANIZATIONAL PERSPECTIVES 

Axelrod, Robert M. "Schemata Theory: An Information Processing Model 
of Perception and Cognition." 1973. (See Section IV. A.) 

Cyert, Richard M.j Dill, W.R. and March, James G. "The Role of Expec- 
tations in Business Decision Making." 1958. (See Section II. B.) 

Cyert, Richard M. , Simon, Herbert A., and Trow, Donald B. "Observa- 
tions of a Business Decision." 1960. (See Section II. B.) 

Simon, Herbert A. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice." 1957. 
(See Section I.B.) 

Simon, Herbert A. The New Science of Management Decision . 1960. 
(See Section V.B.) 



IV. E. MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF PSYCHOLOGICAL DECISION MAKING 

Axelrod, Robert M. A Framework for a. General Theory of Cognition and 
Choice . Berkeley: Institute of International Studies. 1972, 
35 pp. 

From the introduction: "This paper presents an outline of a 
general theory of cognition and choice. The purpose of the 
general theory is to encompass as many different social sciences 
literatures as possible in a single mathematical model. 
The theme of the paper is that many of the same aspects of cogni- 
tion and choice problems have been studied under different labels 
in different literatures and these various studies can be related 
to each other in the context of a mathematical model." 

Axelrod, Robert M. The Structure of Decision . 1976. (See Section IV. C.) 

Feigenbaum, Edward A. and Feldman, Julian, eds. Computers and Thought , 
A Collection of Articles by Armer [and others] New York: McGraw- 
Hill Book Company, Inc., 1963, 535 pp. 

This collection of eighteen articles aptly summarizes the field of 
artificial intelligence — a field dedicated to the premise that 
significant aspects of human cognitive processes can be reduced 
to well-ordered computer programs and studied via simulation. 
Although computers have makde remarkable progress in such tasks as 
completing algebraic proofs and playing chess, there is little 
empirical evidence that clearly demonstrates the applicability of 
artificial intelligence to organizational decision making processes. 
The collection is included for its theoretical richness and promise 
rather than for actual empirical results in the field of organi- 
zational decision making. 

Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man. 1957. (See Section V.A.) 



30 



Simon, Herbert A. The New Science of Management Decision . 1960. 
(See Section V.B.) 



Taylor, Michael. "The Problem of Salience in the Theory of Collective 
Decision Making." 1970. (See Section I.C.2 ) 



31 • 



V. CROSS PERSPECTIVE VIEWS 



V.A. READERS 



Alexis, Marcus and Wilson, Charles Z., eds. Organizational Decision 

Making . Englewood Cliffs, NoJ.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1967, 447 pp. 
Very broad in scope, this reader talks about behavioral, rational, 
and organizational views in its various sections. Articles by 
Cyert and Simon should be noted. There is also a section on 
quantitative models and the theory of games. 

Feigenbaum, Edward A. and Feldman, Julian, eds. Computers and Thought . 

1963. (See Section IV. E.) 

Gore, William J. and Dyson J.W, eds. The Making of Decisions ; A Reader 
in Administrative Behavior . New York: The Free Press at Glencoe, 

1964, 440 pp. 

An introduction to decision making strategies, the twenty four 
articles by major thinkers in the field of decision making (March, 
Cyert, Simon, Lindblom, etc.) survey various perspectives of the 
field. 

Rappaport, Alfred. Information for Decision Making : Quantitative and 
Behavioral Dimensions . Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 
Inc., 1970, 447 pp. 

A general reader, the text starts with an article on rational theory 
and moves to models, both computer and heuristic, the structure of 
managerial decision theory and the use of information systems. 

Rubenstein, Albert H. and Haberstroh, Chadwick J. Some Theories of 
Organization . Homewood, 111.: The Dorsey Press, 1966, 722 pp. 
The seventh section of this reader on organizational theory is 
devoted to decision making. The editors of the work envision the 
field to be divided in two camps. First there are descriptions of 
behavior versus normative behavioral perceptions. Secondly, the 
field may be divided into analysis of 1) the decision, 2) the 
decision maker, and 3) the decision process. Seven individual 
essays are presented ranging from role theory and small group 
behavior to an analysis of decision in large bureaucratic organi- 
zations. 

Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man: Social and Rational , Mathematical 

Essays on Rational Human Behavior in a_ Social Setting . New York: 
John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1957, 287 pp. 

Simon collects sixteen previously published essays in an attempt to 
"lay foundation for a science of man that will accommodate comfort- 
ably his dual nature as a social and as a rational man." These 
mathematical essays portray both a critique and an extension of a 
classical image of man as a decision maker. Topics include 1) 



32 



causation and influence relations, 2) social processes, 3) motiva- 
tion Inducements and contributions and 4) rationality and adminis- 
trative decision making. 

Weber, Charles E. and Peters, Gerald. Management Action ; Models of 

Administrative Decisions . Scranton, Pa. : International Textbook 

Company, 1969, 324 pp. 

This reader basically sets up alternatives in a modeling situation 

for a variety of areas, sales, public health and libraries among 

them. It includes a chapter on models of decision behavior for 

librarians. 



V.B. OVERVIEW ARTICLES, MONOGRAPHS, AND TEXTS 

Braybrooke, David and Lindblom, Charles E. A Strategy of Decision ; 

Policy Evaluation as a^ Social Process . New York; The Free Press, 
1970, 268 pp. 

Braybrooke and Lindblom present an alternative to synoptic rationalism. 
Decisions are not made by a single actor who finds all the alternatives 
and selects the best from among them. Instead individual decision 
makers complete limited comparisons between given alternatives, the 
given alternatives often being quite close to the current set of 
affairs. The argument is made that this disjoint and Incremental 
approach to decision making (as opposed to synoptlcally rational) 
is 1) the method currently practiced in most public bureaucracies, 
and 2) tends to blend the complexly intertwined values and interests 
of multiple Interest groups much better than a rational process 
ever could. An excellent monograph. 

Ebert, Ronald J. and Mitchell, Terence R. Organizational Decision 

Processes ; Concepts and Analysis . New York: Crane, Russak, 1975, 
331 pp. 

A readable Introduction to the field of decision making displaying 
much of the diversity of the field (perhaps as a text for a course) . 
However, the stated aim of presenting an "integrated whole" Is met 
more by a unified writing style emphasizing some points of tangency 
rather than by a genuine unification of the multiple perspectives. 
A view that starts with the individual's cognitive processes and 
works out to Include organizational and environmental variables is 
presented. Special topics such as information processes, beliefs 
and values, formal models, group processes, and organizational power 
are presented in separate chapters. 

Gore, William J. and Sllander, Fred S. "A Bibliographic Essay on Decision- 
Making." Administrative Science Quarterly 4 (1959) pp. 97-121. 
Gore sees decision making as a fractured and conceptually incomplete 
body of literature. However, he pursues two central threads in his 
analysis, the behavloristlc or organismic and the rationalistic. 



33 



The (at the time) emerging work at Carnegie Mellon under Simon 
is viewed as half way between these two threads verging more toward 
rationalistic „ Within the organismic approach Gore traces three 
threads, the web of organizational relations connecting the 
deciding group to its environment, the organizational context and 
structure of the decision making process, and finally, behavioral 
descriptions of the decision making process itself. The rational 
approach is a normative attempt to reduce non-rationality and 
irrationality through management science techniques such as game 
theory, statistical decision theory, and linear programming. This 
final section is quite dated » 

Radford, K.J. Managerial Decision Making . Reston, Va.,: Reston Publish- 
ing Company, Inc., 1975, 240 pp. 

Written as a possible text for senior undergraduates or graduate 
business, commerce or management science students, this work uses 
a combination of approaches to decision making, namely quantitative 
plus humanistic and organizational behavior. In its combined 
approach it also discusses game theory and group behavior. 

Shubik, Martin. "Approaches to the Study of Decision Making Relevant to 
the Firm." Journal of Business 34 (April 1961) pp. 101-118. 
This essay begins with a critique of the classical "economic man" as 
the core of the theory of the firm. A taxonomy of emerging alternative 
approaches to the theory of the firm is presented o No attempt is 
made to give an exhaustive treatment of each of the alternatives 
sketched. "The traditional areas of economics, psychology, mathematics, 
and statistics, to name a few, have not provided adequate theories 
to explain many problems of decision making in a complex and uncertain 
environment..^. The work discussed here is beginning to replace 
l^economic man} with a less pure, more complex and flexible individual 
whose problems and behavior are closer to those we find in the world 
arusund us." 

Shubik, Martin. "Studies and Theories of Decision Making." Administrative 
Science Quarterly 3 (December 1958) pp. 289-306. 

An overview to various theories of decision making is presented. The 
bulk of the work concentrates on 1) economic man, 2) a theory of the 
firm, 3) a discussion of simulation approaches to economic man and 
4) the building of an economic model. This emphasis reflects the 
author's training in economics. Other sections allude to the fact 
that processes (such as psychological and small group ones) also 
contribute to the decision making process. 

Simon, Herbert A. The New Science of Management Decision . New York: 
Harper and Row, Publishers, 1960, 50 pp. 

These five essays are adapted from a series of three lectures 
given at NYU in 1960. In these essays Simon points to a picture 
concerning the future of the "new science" of management. Routine 
or programmed decision making will be replaced by operations research 
type methods and unprogrammed decisions will be significantly aided 
by heuristic problem solving techniques. An intuitive introduction 
to heuristic problem solving is given. Finally, a sketch of a new 



34 



focus of "man-machine systems for decision making" is presented. 
Although these projections now seem overly optimistic, they do 
provide an interesting perspective on where leaders of the manage- 
ment science field saw themselves going in the early 1960s. 

Simon, Herbert A. The Sciences of the Artificial , Cambridge, Mass.: 
M.I.T. Press, 1969, 123 pp„ 

This volume presents four linked essays, originally presented in 
1968 as part of the Karl Taylor Compton lecture series at M.I.T. 
In a reflection over nearly thirty years of seminal work, Simon makes 
a rather obvious distinction between "natural" and "artificial" 
systems — an artificial "system being modeled, by goals or purposes, 
to the environment in which it lies." Artificial systems comprise 
the man-made world — they have been designed and are maintained by 
human ingenuity. The science of design — the science of the artificial- 
is common to engineering, law, medicine, business; in a word all 
practioners who design the artifacts of our culture. In these 
stimulating essays Simon asks whether or not there are general 
principles of design for artificial systems that can serve as the 
basis for a new science of the artificial. 

Snyder, Richard C, Bruck, H.W. and Sapin, Burton. Foreign Policy Decision 
Making . 1962. (See Section III..A.) 



V.C. ANALYSES EXPLICITLY BASED ON MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES 

Allison, Graham T, "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis." 

American Political Science Review 63 (September 1969) pp. 689-718. 
This is the early work leading to Allison's Essence of Decision , 

Allison, Graham T. The Essence of Decision ; Explaining the Cuban Missile 
Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1971, 338 pp. 
Three distinct models: the rational, organizational and bureaucratic 
political are derived and their fundamental assumptions exposed. 
Then each of the three views of decision making is used to explain the 
decision making processes, both Russian and American, surrounding the 
Cuban missile crisis. Close attention is paid to how the analyst by 
switching his analytic frame of reference can arrive at quantitatively 
different interpretations of the decision making process. This was a 
pioneering piece of work, advocating that analysts would do well to 
view decision making process as a multiple perspective affair. 

Hesse, Rick and Altman, Steve. "Star Trek: Optimum Decision Making Model." 
Interfaces 6 (May 1976) pp. 60-62. 

Speck's cool and unemotional assessments of even the most tense moments 
are exactly what rational, "operation research" analysts aspire to. 
But often Captain Kirk ignores Spock's analytic view of the situation 
in favor of Doctor McCoy's more human and intuitive assessment of the 
situation. Of course. Captain Kirk always makes the best — the "optimum" — 



35 



decision. The magic of the Star Trek model lies in its uncanny 
ability to blend the cool and analytic with the warm and affective 
side of decision making. How do they do it? How could we do it? 

Steinbruner, John D. The Cybernetic Theory of Decision : New Dimensions 

of Political Analysis . Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 
1974, 366 pp. 

Three perspectives on the decision making process are presented in the 
first half of the book — a form of rational, organizational, and 
psychological. The organizational perspective draws heavily on the 
work of Cyert and March and views political organizations as cybernetic 
mechanisms that use a small number of standardized routines and 
operating procedures to match organizational goals with the constraints 
put upon the organization by its environment » The psychological 
portions of the model draw heavily upon cognitive psychology, picturing 
human decision makers as information processors with only limited 
abilities to delineate all alternatives and to integrate complex and 
sometimes contradictory values and goals. In the second half of the 
book the perspectives delineated in the first half are applied to the 
case of strategic arms negotiations in Europe. 

Steinbruner, John D. "Some Effects of Decision Procedures on Policy 

Outcomes: A Series of Experiments Using Policy Games." Cambridge, 
Mass.: M.I.T. Center for International Studies, 1970, 151 pp. 
In his earlier work Steinbruner has articulated a "cybernetic theory 
of decision." In this work he sets out to test the hypothesis that 
"individuals who utilize a process fitting the rational paradigm 
j^willj make different decisions than individuals utilizing a process 
fitting the cybernetic paradigm." A gaming situation is devised for 
testing this central hypothesis. The findings of the game were 
subject to rather severe validity constraints but could still be 
seen as useful. "Any serious research program using PME (games) 
as a research device should integrate it with the other levels of 
analysis and the other methods and data bases which they imply." 



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