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THE URBAN PLANNING PROCESS

JULY 1972 - NUMBER 22

3 ^) i^nfo

THOMAS A. DAMES

JOINT HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROJECT

PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND

INDIANA STATE HIGHWAY COMMISSION

' THE URBAN PLANNING PROCESS

TO: J. F. McLaughlin, Director

Joint Highway Research Project

FROM: II. L. Michael, Associate Director
Joint Highway Research Project

July 26, 1972

File: 3-7

The attached Report titled "The Urban Planning Process'
has been authored by Thomas Allan Dames under the guidance
of Professor W. L. Greece Mr. Dames used this Report as
his thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for
the Ph.D. degree.

The report is a presentation of the methodology common
to urban planning over the entire ranges of such planning
from the most comprehensive to the most limited and from
the greatest in areal extent to the smallest. The process,
from a definable beginning, through many intermediate steps
to a definable end is developed and conceptually modeled.
Planning procedures are outlined and discussed and examples
are presented.

This research was conducted by Mr. Dames under a U. S.
Navy educational assignment and is presented to the Board
as information.

Respectfully submitted,

IILM:ms

S;,-<, /

Harold L. Michael
Associate Director

Dolch

Harrell

Eskew

Hayes

11.

Goetz

Love 11

Grecco

Marks

Gutzwiller

Miles

Hallock

Miller

Scholer
Scott

J.
N.

II.
E.

A.
W.
R.
J.

Spooner
Steinkamp
J. Walsh
Yoder

THE URBAN PLANNING PROCESS

by
Thomas Allan Dames

Joint Highway Research Project
File: 3-7

Purdue University

Lafayette, Indiana

July 26, 1972

Digitized by the Internet Archive

in 2011 with funding from

LYRASIS members and Sloan Foundation; Indiana Department of Transportation

http://www.archive.org/details/urbanplanningproOOdame

Ill

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

With a deep sense of gratitude, the author wishes to
personally thank Dr. William L. Grecco, Professor of Urhan
Planning and Engineering at Purdue University, for his
enlightened leadership and counsel, not only during the
conduct of this research, but throughout our warm and
professional association. All that is worthwhile in this
work was born of this association. To receive such counsel
from Dr. Grecco is an unforgettable intellectual pleasure.

For their interest, guidance, and reasoned criticism
of this research, the author wishes to sincerely thank
Professor Harold L. Michael, Head of Urban Planning and
Engineering at Purdue, Professor Robert D. Miles of the
School of Civil Engineering, and Dr. Colin L. Moodie of
the School of Industrial Engineering. Their participation
was most welcome and they constituted a most sympathetic
audience for the early drafts of this material.

I must also acknowledge a strong debt to my fellow
officers in the Civil Engineer Corps, United States Navy,
for altogether demonstrating a standard of professional
excellence not exceeded elsewhere in my experience. With
a sincere concern for the inequity of singling out one such
officer, I must nonetheless note that Rear Admiral Spencer R
Smith afforded me the opportunity to observe this excellence
at first hand, and never failed to encourage me to emulate
it.

To Dr. John F. McLaughlin, Head of the School of Civil
Engineering at Purdue, and his staff, I owe a debt of thanks
for the ease of reentry to the Academe.

To my fellow students, past and present, I offer a
warm thank you for a vibrant and stimulating environment of
intellectual endeavor.

I acknowledge the professional and personal counsel of
Dr. Charles C. Schimpeler of Schimpeler - Corradino
Associates, Louisville, Kentucky. Dr. Schimpeler' s unfailing
enthusiasm and competence is a joy to experience.

We are all, of course, the products of our experience
and I must finally acknowledge the unrepayable debt to my
parents and my family for providing environments conducive
to intellectual persuit, often at considerable sacrifice.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

LIST OF TABLES ix

LIST OF FIGURES x

ABSTRACT xii

INTRODUCTION 1

CHAPTER I. GOALS AND OBJECTIVES 6

Identifying the Community Influentials 12

The Development of Community Goals and

Objectives 13

The Ordering of Community Goals and Objectives . 26

Notes 36

CHAPTER II. ORGANIZATION 38

A Conceptual Model of Planning Activity .... 38

The Use of the Model in Planning Organization . 44

The Use of the Model in Study Design 50

The Study Design Methodology 57

Notes 66

CHAPTER III. INVENTORY ..... 67

A Data-Use Matrix 72

Land Data 83

Land Use 83

Ownership 84

Frontage and Area 84

Easements 84

Landmark 84

Number of Parking Spaces 84

Assessed Value of Land and Improve-
ments 84

Real Estate Tax Revenue 84

Sale Price and Sale Data 85

Summary 85

Street Data 85

Intersection 85

Length of Segment, Right-of-way

Width and Pavement Width 85

Functional Class 85

Structural Composition and Percent

Grade 86

Average Traffic and Peak Hour Traffic . 86

Number of Accidents 86

Curb Parking 86

TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.)

Page

Sidewalks and Street Lights 86

Number of Lanes and Loading Zone ... 86

Transit Route and School Route .... 86

Access Control 87

Condition 87

Utilities Sharing Right-of-way .... 87

Summary 87

Structural Data 87

Year Built and Type of Construction . 87

Building Condition 87

Number of Floors, Total Floor Area

and First Floor Area 88

Number and Type of Building Code

Violations 88

Rehabilitation Cost 88

Police Calls and Fire Calls 88

Utility Service 88

Summary 88

Dwelling Unit Data 89

Percent Vacant 89

Residents by Sex and Age Groups ... 89

Family Income 89

Family Education and Occupation ... 89
Vehicles Owned, Place of Work and

Means of Transportation to Work . . 90
Number and Types of Communicable

Diseases 90

Rent 90

Summary 90

Non-Dwelling Unit Data 91

Peak Shift Employees, Number of
Employees and Optimum Total

Employment 91

Major Product Groups 91

Percent Sales Outside the Area .... 91

Summary 91

Some Concepts of Sampling 92

Sample Size 94

Sample Selection 95

Simple Random Sample 95

Stratified Random Sample 96

Systematic Sample and Stratified

Systematic Sample 96

Cluster Sampling 97

Error 97

Accuracy and Precision 98

vii

TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.)

Page

Urban Information Systems 101

Information Hierarchy 102

Levels of System Sophistication 102

System Development 102

Summary 105

Notes 105

CHAPTER IV. ANALYSIS 106

The Use of Models 109

The Strategy and Tactics of Modeling . . . 110

An Example 113

The Use of Systems Analysis 117

General Systems Theory 117

Urban Systems Analysis 121

CHAPTER V. FORECASTING 12 5

The Forecasting Model 126

Substance 126

Area 134

Procedure 135

Forecasting Techniques 136

Economic Activity Forecasts 136

Population Estimates and Forecasts .... 145

Land Use Forecasts 147

Transportation Forecasts 149

Summary 158

CHAPTER VI. DESIGN 159

Considerations of Form 161

Considerations of Quality 169

Operational Considerations . , 176

An Example 179

Summary 183

Notes 183

CHAPTER VII. EVALUATION 184

The Conceptual Model of the Evaluation Phase . . 186

Substantive Scope 186

Areal Scope 188

Procedural Scope 190

Evaluation Steps 190

Evaluation Roles 190

Evaluation Strategies 191

Summary 191

Vlll

TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.)

Page

Evaluation Techniques 192

Intuitive Methods 193

Monetary Valuation Methods 194

The Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost

Method 194

The Present Worth of Costs Method . . 195
The Equivalent Uniform Annual Net

Return Method 195

The Net Present Value Method 195

The Benefit/Cost Ratio Method .... 196

The Rate of Return Method 196

Social Accounts Valuation Methods 198

Utility Value Methods .... 199

Goal Achievement Methods 201

Psychological Valuation Methods 205

Summary 206

A Note on Practice 207

Conclusions 211

Notes 211

CHAPTER VIII. IMPLEMENTATION 213

The Conceptual Model of the Implementation

Phase 215

Substantive Scope 215

Areal Scope 219

Procedural Scope 221

Operational Considerations 223

A Note on Federal Assistance 233

Summary 234

Notes 235

CONCLUDING REMARKS 2 36

BIBLIOGRAPHY 238

General References 247

VITA 258

LIST OF TABLES

Table Page

1-1 Sample Community Goals and Objectives .... 15

1 1 - 1 Sample Work Item Resource Assignment 62

III-l Descriptive Data Showing a University Level

of Service 70

III-2 Sample Land Use Plan Objectives and Data

Items 73

V-l Cents Worth of Input per Dollar Output .... 138

V-2 Input Requirements in Dollars 139

V-3 Allocation of Sales by Percent 140

V-4 Allocation of Sales by Percent Direct and

Indirect 141

VI-1 Site Features/Design Considerations: Steeply

Sloped Site 171

VII-1 Conceptual Payoff Matrix 199

VII-2 The Goals-Achievement Matrix 202

VII-3 Historical Evaluation Technique Emphases . . . 210

VIII-1 Methods of Implementing Environmental Policies,

by Land Form 229

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page

1-1 A Conceptual Visualization of the Client

Constituency 10

II-l A Conceptual Model of Planning Activity ... 39

II -2 A Conceptual Elemental Event in the Planning

Model 41

I 1-3 The Community Land Use Forecast in the Model . 43

I 1-4 The Organization Phase in the Conceptual

Model of Planning Activity 45

II-5 Conceptual Demand Curves 47

II -6 The Use of the Conceptual Model in Planning

Organization 52

II-7 Four Conceptual Staffing Schemes 54

I 1-8 Sample Parking Study Flow Diagram 58

LI-9 Sample School Study Flow Diagram 59

11-10 Sample Organization Phase Flow Diagram .... 61

III-l The Inventory Phase in the Conceptual Model

of Planning Activity 68

III-2 A Sample Data-Use Matrix 78

III-3 The Relationship Between Sampling and Non-
sampling Error 99

III-4 The Relationship Between Accuracy and

Precision 100

1II-5 Logic Diagram for Coding Information to

Land Parcel 104

IV-1 The Conceptual Model of Statewide Recreational

Travel to State Parks 114

V-l The Forecasting Phase in the Conceptual Model

of Planning Activity 127

V-2 A Conceptual Forecasting Model 128

LIST OF FIGURES (cont.)

Figure Page

V-3 Conceptual Forecasted Outcomes 132

VI -1 Example Demand Curves, Golf and Swimming . . . 180

VII-1 The Evaluation Phase in the Conceptual Model

of Planning Activity 187

VIII-1 The Implementation Phase in the Conceptual

Model of Planning Activity 216

Xll

ABSTRACT

Dames, Thomas Allan. Ph.D., Purdue University, August, 1972.
The Urban Planning Process. Major Professor: William L.
Greece

The precept central to this work is that there is a
methodology common to urban planning over the entire ranges
of such planning from the most comprehensive to the most
limited and from the greatest in areal extent to the
smallest. This common methodology is considered as a
process with a definable beginning, a definable end and
requisite intermediate steps.

The beginning occurs with a need to plan perceived by
the client constituency of the planner and refined through
the formulation of a set of goals and objectives of this
constituency. This procedure, as well as necessary
administrative requirements, occurs in the organization
phase of the planning process. The planning process continues
sequentially through a series of steps or phases to investi-
gate and institute proposals deemed desireable and feasible
based upon the enunciated goals and objectives. The phases
have been designated as that of organization, inventory,
analysis, forecasting, design, evaluation, and implementa-
tion. The distinctions among the phases are both conceptual
and operational, not withstanding due regard given to feed-
back and feedforeward elements.

A conceptual model of the planning process is intro-
duced and examined throughout this research. It is hypothes-
ized that this model adequately demonstrates the sequential
nature of the planning process. It further demonstrates
that procedural considerations can be used to conceptually
examine the substantive scope of planning, from the most

Xlll

general to the most specific, and the areal scope of planning
from the greatest to the smallest. The interaction of sub-
stance, area, and process defines planning in both a con-
ceptual and operational sense.

Specific examples of planning procedures are intro-
duced in the research with a twofold purpose: to demonstrate
the mechanics of a specific technique; and, more importantly,
to bridge the gap between the themes of concept and opera-
tionally.

The research is addressed to specific audiences. These
include the engineer who finds himself in a planning situa-
tion, representatives of other professions similarly situated,
executives in both the public and private sectors and,
generally, that individual with little planning education or
experience who is faced with the need to participate in
urban planning.

A second audience is the Academe. A work of this type
will constitute a sound basis for a graduate or undergraduate
introduction to urban planning irrespective of the student's
main area of interest.

A third audience is the planning profession itself.
The body of literature on the planning process is disjointed
and fragmented. Typically it consists of four types of
documents: detailed technical treatises on a particular
technique; somewhat more general works albiet about a
specific type of planning; histories about the planning
process in a specific situation participated in or observed
by the author; and philosophical works about the need to
plan. This is an impressive and valuable body of knowledge
but, perhaps owing to its generally recent vintage, it has
not been brought together in a format such as this.

INTRODUCTION

The beginning occurs with a perceived need to plan.
This perception has as its basis the difference between the
style of life currently held by the perceptor and that style
defined as "better" based upon his set of values. In a
macro sense, the exploration, definition and development of
the various sets of values held by the public defines the
public purpose. The public is made up of those people
directly affected by the plan and is termed the client
constituency of the planner so as not to limit this discussion
Lo the more restrictive sense of public; i.e., governmental,
planning. The formulized and measured sets of values are
called the goals and objectives of the client constituency
and serve as the conceptual basis for specific planning
endeavors .

The planning process then runs sequentially through a
series of steps or phases to investigate the institute
proposals deemed desirable and feasible based upon the
enunciated goals and objectives. The phases have been
designated as that of organization, inventory, analysis,
forecasting, design, evaluation, and implementation. The
distinctions among the phases are both conceptual and
operational, not withstanding due regard given to feedback
and feedforeward elements.

A conceptual model of the planning process is intro-
duced and examined throughout this work. It is hypothesized
that this model adequately demonstrates the sequential
nature of the planning process. It further demonstrates
that procedural considerations can be used to conceptually
examine the substantive scope of planning, from the most
general to the most specific, and the areal scope of
planning, from the greatest to the smallest. The inter-
action of substance, area, and process defines planning
in both a conceptual and operational sense.

These themes of concept and operationality run through-
out the work. In maintaining the two, some information at
the extremes is necessarily omitted. As a result, this
work is neither a theoretical development of the planning
process nor a procedural manual. It rather is conducted on
a level of discussion intermediate between the two. A
further theme is one of commonality. Only where absolutely
necessary were distinctions made between planning in the
public sector and planning in the private sector. Institu-
tional considerations were also minimized, so little
reference is made to planning in a large, complex and highly
structured environment or one less so in any of these
qualities. It is thought that such considerations have
impacts which will not detract significantly from the
information presented. Balancing this commonality, specific
examples have been included with a twofold purpose: to
demonstrate the mechanics of a specific technique; and,
more importantly to bridge the gap between the themes of
concept and operationality.

The examples were purposely chosen so as not to fall
within one type of planning from chapter to chapter. It was
felt that this would lend too much credence to the mechanics
of the examples, to the detriment of the concepts underlying
those mechanics. There is a commonality of concept from one
type of planning to another, quite apart from whatever

the substance of the chosen examples happens to be. It is
up to the reader to make the necessary transfer as
appropriate .

In this same vein, the applications of the conceptual
model of planning activity are suggested, but not exhausted.
The themes of concept, operationality and commonality
were nonetheless addressed to specific audiences. These
include Lhe engineer who finds himself in a planning
situation, representatives of other professions similarly
situated, executives in both the public and private sectors
and, generally, that individual with little planning education
or experience who is faced with the need to participate in
urban planning.

A second audience is the Academe. It is thought that
a work of this type will constitute a sound basis for a
graduate or undergraduate introduction to urban planning
irrespective of the student's main area of interest.

Chapter I opens with a discussion of the concept of
the client constituency and methods of its identification.
The discussion then turns to methods of identifying the
goals and objectives of this constituency and measuring
their relative importance.

Chapter II, Organization, introduces the conceptual
model of planning activity. This model, together with the

goals and objectives of the client constituency developed
in Chapter I, is then used to delimit the planning area and
nest the substance of the plan into a hierarchy of planning,
from the most general to the most specific. The administra-
L ion of the planning effort is discussed and the refinement
of the goals and objectives into an operational scheme is
traced through the preparation of a prospectus, a study
design, and procedural manuals.

Chapter III discusses the inventory of information
deemed necessary to plan, based upon the operational and
administrative refinements executed in Chapter II. A
data-use matrix is presented showing the conceptual end
use of various data for typical plans. Discussions of
sampling and the use and development of urban information
systems close the chapter.

Chapter IV investigates the analysis of inventoried
data. Typically this analysis follows the classical
scientific method of induction, generalization, deduction and
testing. The use of models is defined and explored and
some suggestions are offered regarding the strategy and
tactics of modeling. Two examples illustrate these concepts.
Ceneral systems theory is outlined and a discussion on
urban systems analysis demonstrates that the use of the
conceptual model of planning activity developed in this
work is itself a systematic analysis.

Chapter V contains an investigation of the problem
that urban planners face in dealing with future events and
the attendant risk of forecasting. A conceptual forecasting
model is examined and a relatively detailed discussion
follows on the techniques of forecasting key measures of
economic activity, population characteristics, land use
characteristics, and transportation characteristics.

Chapter VI on urban design discusses the preparation
of a plan, or a set of alternative plans, designed to meet
these forecasted characteristics in a manner arising from

and consistant with the goals and objectives of the client
constituency. It is necessarily the most philosophical
phase of the planning process. An exploration of general
and specific considerations of form and considerations of
quality is followed by a discussion of the modi operendi
of urban design. One such mode is developed as an example
at the end of the chapter.

Chapter VII investigates the evaluation phase of the
conceptual model of planning activity. As with other phases,
the benchmarks continue to be the goals and objectives of
the client constituency. A relatively detailed treatment is
offered of the range of evaluative methods including those
that are intuitive, monetary, social, utile, goal-achieving,
and psychological. Examples of current practice are
included .

Chapter VIII investigates the natural and operational
conclusion of urban planning, implementation. The role of
the planner is explored within the context of the con-
ceptual model of planning activity. A discussion of
implementation strategies, tactics, techniques and aids
closes the chapter.

CHAPTER I
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

It seems logical to begin the study of planning method-
ology with a short note about the planner himself and the
milieus in which he must act. A planner is one who plans.
An urban planner plans aspects of urban life and a pro-
fessional urban planner does so or teaches so for a living
with a further connotation of working under an ethic.

It is not purpose of this research to elaborate on this
theme except to note that it is not surprising that numerous
Longer established professions lay some claim to professional
urban planning (Pollard, 1969). Under the above definitions,
such claims are justified.

A client is someone for whom another person acts,
again with an ethical connotation. It is difficult, but
necessary, for an urban planner to correctly identify his
client, because the professional relationship established
subsequent to this is as delicate as any repeatedly referred
to in law or medicine.

The client of the professional urban planner is a
constituency made up of the people affected by the plan
anu the employer of the urban planner. Carried to its
extreme, we are each a constituent client of any urban plan
ever conceived. The dilemma presented by this situation is,
of course, avoided by limiting consideration of this con-
stituency to those persons most likely to be materially
affected by the plan.

Two examples will suffice to illustrate this. In the
case of a single private entrepreneur who wishes to develop
Tils vacant property for residential use and annexation by

an existing community, the client constituency is:
the entrepreneur,

the future residents of the property,
the current and future residents of the community ,
and, in some respects, the current and future
residents of the region encompassing the
community .
In the case of the city manager who wishes a land use
plan for his community, the client constituency is:
the city manager,

the current and future residents of the city,
and probably the current and future residents
of the region encompassing the city.
Some investigation of this client constituency has
been cnrried out by Kaplan (1969) and he notes that the
client/planner relationship becomes complexed by individual
constituents who want to participate in the planning process,
by individual constituents who view the employer/planner
relationship as working counter to their best interests,
and by the self doubt of the planner himself as to who
exactly is his client.

Add to this the fact that decision making in urban
affairs has been often justifiably characterized as incre-
mental, remedial, serial, exploratory, fragmented and
disjointed (Braybrooke, 1963) and one is left with the
question "Why plan at all?"

The reason is that the study of urbanization leaves
little doubt that past plans have had an impact on urban
development. This impact has sometimes been generally good,
sometimes generally bad. The later instances are often
thought of as a failure to plan but it is the contention of
this work that they were the failure to plan adequately.
Indeed, many of the serious problems of American cities
today have been traced by .sociologists, politicians, and
urbanologists to the failure-; of past planning. The natural

forward extension of this contention is that today's plans
must be adequate to deal with problems that not only face
cities today but also those that will face our cities some
years from now. A logical correlary to this is that every-
thing should be planned.

Three constraints serve to keep the urban planning
profession away from this normative state of perfection.
We cannot be sure of those aspects of past planning that
contribute to urban malaise today; we cannot be sure of the
consequences tomorrow of today's planning; and we do not
have the resources to plan everything even if the causative
relntionships were known. Since none of these constraint:,
seems likely to be overcome, urban planning will probably
never reach a normative state of perfection. But it is
contended here that the profession can advance toward this
state of perfection by an easing of the three constraints.
This easing can be accomplished by an investigation of the
goals and objectives of the client constituency to establish
the direction of remedial planning (the first constraint),
the direction of prescriptive planning (the second constraint),
and the allocation of scarce resources to this effort (the
third constraint).

An investigation of the goals and objectives of the
client requires citizen participation in the planning process,
actual or vicarious. It is important to consider citizen
participation as a process rather than as a product of this
process (Chisholm, 1970) or an administrative necessity to
gain funding. This process infuses and permeates the
planning process to such a degree that both the planning
and the goals and objectives of the client constituency
change over time as a result of their interaction.

In discussing planning in a Swedish suburb Anton

( 1969) notes:

The goals of the various actors were developed in the
process of bargaining itself, rather than existing as

predetermined, ideas in the minds of the actors. Since
goal modification in exchange for political support
was the essence of the bargaining process and since
political support of a sufficient number of actors to
produce agreement was essential for resolution of the
issue, the outcome represented the final stage in a
series of successive approximations to what was
least objectionable rather than to what was most
desirable. 1*

Two themes are emphasized in this comment. First, the
goals anfl objectives of the client constituency change over
Lime :ind the course of the planning process, and second,
ihese same goals and objectives are used to evaluate pro-
posals and decide from among alternatives. A sample method-
ology for establishing the goals and objectives of the client
constituency at the outset of the planning process follows
in this chapter. Later in the work, and particularly in
Chapter VII, several methods of evaluation are explored to
decide from among alternatives.

The set of individuals comprising the client con-
stituency can be analyzed in a manner similar to that
depicted in Figure 1-1. This set is actually a system of
overlapping interests, some organizational and some issue
oriented. At the apex rests the decision maker who will
most probably play many roles. A single private developer
may be the dispenser of monies, the arbiter of conflict, the
representative of future occupants, etc. Similarly, at the
apex might be a city planning commission, a private foundation,
a federal agency, a city manager or any such conceivable
employer of a professional urban planner. This is the usual
point of entry for the planner into the system.

At the base rests the public at large characterized
by a very limited knowledge of their city or cities in
general, a very limited knowledge of the time and expense

Superscript numbers refer to Notes at the end of the
Chapter.

FIGURE I-l
A CONCEPTUAL VISUALIZATION OF THE CLIENT CONSTITUENCY

of the planning process, and a very limited awareness of
the interdependence of the elements that make up their
city (Branch, 1968).

In between these extremes and at the apexes of various
smaller figures are individuals with personal or altruistic
interests in the plan. These individuals are the community
leaders or responsibles of subsets of individuals within the
community, and as such, they are influential in community
affairs. These subsets are often called publics and almost
everyone in the community can be said to participate in many
publics; one say arising from his job, another from his
ethnic origin, another from his religion, another from his
marital status, etc.

The methodology exampled here suggests the use of these

community influentials to establish the goals and objectives

of the client constituency. The arguments for this are

threefold. First, the goals and objectives of the employer

or even the employer/planner team are most probably not

congruent with those of the client constituency. Second,

the cost of establishing the goals and objectives of the

client constituency as a whole, even by sampling methods,

is prohibitive. There are many reasons for this, among them

might be the need for a massive public education program to

enlighten the public at large. It cannot be denied that this

would be a worthwhile endeavor of itself but it is probably

outside the budgetary and professional scope of urban planning

Further, such an education and subsequent investigation of

community values would take so long a period of time that the

data might perish. Bolan (1967) writes that,

. . . values are continually changing, goals are
shifting, priorities are varying - the public
agenda never really stands still for one to mount a
concentrated attack on it. Moreover the decision
environment itself changes over time. Elections
are won and lost, faces and personalities change,
new laws are passed, and marginal adjustment of
institutional structure continually occurs. 2

The third argument for using community influentials to
establish goals and objectives is that the community influen-
tials themselves are in a position to aid in iinplementat ion
<>f the plan, and thus tender their judgments not only upon
hypothet ical considerations, but also upon specific future
conditions that they will work to see effected. Their
prophecies tend toward self fulfillment. Further, to plan
without taking the goals and objectives of the community
inf J uentials into account leaves the plan vulnerable to
challenge by them.

The goals and objectives of the client constituency are
established and measured by the following three step process:

1. Identify the community inf luen tials ;

2. Have the community influentials develop the goals
and objectives of the community;

3. Have the community influentials develop an order
of precedence of these goals and objectives.

Much of what follows here regarding these steps was

first elucidated in a work by Schimpeler (1967) in Louisville.

Identifying the Community Influentials
There are several methods for identifying community
influentials. The first consists of identifying those indi-
viduals who have the potential of being influential by virtue
of their position in the client constituency. The employer
of the planner would be identified here, if not elsewhere.
Other examples are elected or appointed officials, bank
presidents, industrial magnates, leaders of civic organiza-
tions, major businessmen, prominent professionals, media
directors, educators, and leaders of political parties.

Another method involves issue examination. For each
issue area in the recent client constituency history, an
attempt is made to establish who supported proposals that
were adopted, or who successfully countered the proposals of
others (Dahl, 1961).

A third method begins with a panel of knowledgable
c Ltizens who are asked to select from the set of individuals
in the client constituency (perhaps provided by methods one
and two) those who are community influentials (Hunter, 1953).
This process can be iterative and converging by then going
to the selected influentials and asking them in turn to
select from the list of selectees.

A fourth method recognizes the correlation between
influence and participation in social and civic organizations
such as the Chamber of Commerce, the Rotary Club, etc.
Persons who participate in many of these are probable
influentials (Olmstead, 1954).

A fifth method is to identify the relatively small
number of individuals who hold, or have held policy making
positions in a number of organizations. These inter-
organizational influentials then comprise a highly distilled
and possibly closed network of influence that can be brought
to bear on a given issue (Perrucci, 1970).

There appears to be no unanimous agreement among
sociologists and political scientists as to the best method.
Further, there is dissent on the degree that the methods
effect the results (Perrucci, 1970) and whether the methods
converge on the same set of influentials (Preston, 1969 and
Pox, 1969).

Schimpeler noted that the Hunter Reputational Technique
and the Position Potential Techniques can result in the
broadest identification of community influentials.

The Development of Community Goals and Objectives
The community influentials are gathered together at
what will most probably be a series of meetings extending
over several weeks. They are given the charter by the planner
or the planner/employer team to develop a set of goals and
objectives for the community. Here the planner provides an
extremely important function by providing seed ideas to

insure that, over the course of these meetings, each facet
<>f community development that he knows as a professional
Ln he important is considered hy the committee. The planner
must be manifestly objective in this process and most careful
not to inject his own values into the process. Further,
his tudience will be affected not only by what he says but
l>y how he says it, in the same manner that the public may
be affected not only by the physical characteristics of a
presented plan, but also by its manner of presentation
(Creighton, 1969). These seed ideas may take the form of
lectures or discussions about prior studies or may even be
an examination of the goals and objectives developed in
con junction with other plans. It is recommended that the
planner provide this committee with an initial set of goals
and objectives as a starting point from which the final set
will evolve. Convergence on a single set will be much
faster with some initial input, yet this will not preclude
the formulation of goals and objectives in words meaningful
to the committee. A sample set of goals and two levels of
objectives is here provided in Table 1-1 for the planner's
consideration. It would be highly improbable that any
committee would completely accept the given set without
substantial change.

Free discussion of the meaning of goals and objectives
should ensue so that each participant and the planner are
aware of the connotations of sometimes abstract terms. The
go;) Is and objectives should be well ordered in so far as
their generality is concerned and there must be some
aggregation of concept from the specific to the general.
One suggested order is that goals be defined by several
levels of objectives which are further defined by work items.
If one participant feels very strongly about "providing
pedestrian foot paths between residential areas", for
instance, that can be a second order objective under
"develop a balanced, effective, integrated transportation

Table 1-1

Sample Community Goals and Objectives"

Public Safety Program Development

1. Insure Safe Publicly Owned Facilities (excludes
legislative action)

a. Insure the maintenance of public buildings
(transit terminals, libraries, public offices,
theaters, etc.)

b. Provide for safety through design, construction,
maintenance, and operation of the transportation
system (streets, highways, transit and sidewalks.)

c. Provide maintenance for the grounds and equip-
ment of open space areas.

d. Insure well lighted public areas.

e. Provide efficient emergency forces and facilities
(civil defense, fire fighting, police, etc.)

2. Provide for adequate public and semi public facilities
through safety regulations and their enforcement.

a. Insure the safe operation of transportation
system.

b. Insure the control of dangerous goods and
installations (explosives, chemicals, etc.)

c. Insure the safe installation and operation of
public utilities.

d. Promotion of industrial safety.

Public Utility and Transportation Development.

1. Insure maximum effectiveness of public utilities, by
design and locational considerations (electricity,
telephone, water, sewers, and gas).

a. Location of various utilities should be coordin-
ated.

b. Insure that all public utilities are provided in
an area as necessary to assist the desired stage
of development.

Tab I e I - I , cont .

c. Extension oi~ utilities must be done in an
efficient and economical manner.

2. Take measures and develop programs to minimize
maintenance costs of public facilities.

a. Develop program of preventive maintenance and
reduced maintenance costs.

b. Evaluate maintenance costs as a basis for
selecting design.

'5. Develop a balanced, effective and integrated trans-
portation system which provides for the accessib-
ility requirements of each land use.

.i. Provide pedestrian footpaths between residential
areas, schools, shopping centers and recreational
areas.

b. Provide adequate arterial roads to insure rapid
and safe movement to and from the area and also
within the area.

c. Reduce the pedestrian-vehicular conflict in the
CBD.

d. Provide alternative modes of travel to serve
the various needs of people and activities as
and where necessary.

e. Provide for the safe and convenient interchange
between mode.

C. Kconomic Development Programs

1. Develop public Improvement programs within available
financial resources.

a. Provide capital works improvements which will
provide for economic growth.

b. Provide improvements to maintain value inherent
in existing facilities.

c. Establish priorities of capital works improvements
on the basis of community's value system.

Table 1-1, cont.

2. Insure effective utilization of mineral, vegetation,
air and water resources.

a. Provide priorities for immediate and future
water use.

b. Provide for flood control improvements.

c. Utilize available water resources for generating
electric power.

d. Utilize fertile lands for the production of
foodstuffs .

ii. Establish a strong economic base through commerce
that will bring money into the community.

a. Achieve an external-internal favorable balance
of trade.

b. Diversify the community's economic base.

c. Promote the advantages of the community's
recreational or tourist facilities.

d. Require or reserve sites for possible new manu-
facturing or industrial facilities.

e. Provide utilities, streets, zoning changes, etc.
for industrial or commercial use.

4. Insure the optimal utilization of all land.

a. Provide a comprehensive land use plan.

b. Provide proper and adequate zoning for the various
land use forms.

c. Provide guidelines as to the proper location of
buildings and utilities within the zones.

d. Establish a proper planning and control unit to
advise on the proper use of available land.

e. Establish desirable standards to be used for the
setting up of the various land units.

Table 1-1, cont

5. Achieve increased disposable income for all people.

a. Training to provide skills for unskilled people
and increase skill level of skilled people.

b. Increase number of available jobs, workers per
family and/or number of hours worked per week.

c. Tie all salaries, wages and pensions to the
Consumer Price Index.

d. Provide guaranteed minimum annual wage.
Cultural Development

1. Preserve historic sites and areas of natural beauty.

a. Promote formation of local citizens groups to
identify sites and work for preservation.

b. Encourage private enterprise to purchase and
preserve sites through tax incentives.

c. Establish a trust fund from federal taxes to be
used for purchasing and preserving sites.

d. Encourage individuals to convert suitable private
sites to public land through tax incentives.

e. Make awards for good design of housing develop-
ments, highways, etc., which preserves natural
sites .

2. Promote adequate public libraries, museums and cul-
tural activities.

a. Provide neighborhood libraries as well as central
libraries .

b. Provide mobile libraries.

c. Provide or promote facilities for meeting places
for neighborhood cultural and service groups.

d. Provide portable displays from museums and
cultural centers for use in neighborhood school
and social centers.

Table 1-1, cont

3. Protect meaningful focal tradition and encourage
civic pride.

a. Promote civic committees and groups to observe
important local traditions and historical dates
and anniversaries.

b. Promote funds for operation of civic leagues.
Health Program Development

1. Regulate the provision and design of health facil-
ities for the prevention and cure of disease.

a. Establish minimum standards for health facilities
(hospitals, nursing homes, clinics).

b. Enforcement of the abofe standards.

2. Regulate the numbers and training required of
personnel in health.

a. Establish minimum standards for personnel in
health areas.

b. Enforcement of the above standards.

3. Provide for the removal of contaminants through
community programs and regulations.

a. Provide sanitary sewers and treatment plant.

b. Provide storm sewers.

c. Provide for refuse collection and disposal.

d. Provide for street cleaning, snow and ice
removal from publicly owned facilities.

e. Establishment and enforcement of air pollution
control measures.

4. Provide for adequate public health facilities,
personnel and programs for the prevention and cure
of disease.

a. Provide training and education programs to
enlighten the population to common nuisances
or health hazards.

Table 1-1, cont

b. Provide preventive medicine services.

c. Promote community programs and planning to
eliminate mental and physical health sources.

d. Educate the population to health welfare services
available and coordinate the programs.

F. Education program Development

Provide adequate personnel and facilities to insure
1 basic (12 Year) education for all.

a. Improve coordination between schools in both
the public and private sectors for economic
utilization of resources and a unified
effort.

b. Provide adequate primary education personnel
and facilities.

c. Provide adequate high school education personnel
and facilities.

d. Improve and update the curriculum on all above
levels .

2. Provide adequate facilities and personnel for
other educational programs.

a. Provide adequate pre-school facilities and
personnel. (Headstart, nurseries, kindergarten,
etc. )

b. Provide adequate colleges and personnel.

c. Provide adequate technical schools and staff,
(vocational studies, job retraining, etc.)

d. Promote non-formal adult education.
G. Welfare Program Development

1. Eliminate injustice based on discrimination

a. Provide information to all communication media.

b. Provide a police force supervised by the people.

Table 1-1, cont.

c. Provide for correction of injustice through
proper legal channels.

d . Promote media which encourage understanding
be .ween all groups.

/. . Develop needed public welfare program:..

a. Provide aid to the elderly.

b. Provide aid to unmarried mothers.

c. Provide special education and aid to handicapped
people .

d. Provide a Day Care Center for families where
both parents must work.

e. Provide medical assistance to needy people.

f. Provide informational centers for instructing
eligible people of the services available.

3 . Encourage development of religious opportunities.

a. Provide suitable building sites.

b. Provide for adequate parking facilities.

4. Develop an aesthetically pleasing environment.

a. Provide attractive structures.

b. Provide attractive landscaping.

c. Screen or remove objectionable land uses.

d. Eliminate objectionable advertising displays.
Recreation Program Development

1. Establish open space programs.

a. Provide sufficient space to meet the existing
and future needs of the community.

b. Establish and design the open space in a
pattern so that it provides a maximum of emenity
and convenience.

Table 1-1, cont.

2. Provide adequate recreational facilities utilizing
places of natural resources and beauty and at
places of greatest need.

a. Make all facilities flexible so that they
insure economy and efficiency.

b. Provide standards and recreation programs that
are compatible with cultural, social, and economic
characteristics of the community.

c. Use recreational facilities as a developmental
tool to reinforce patterns of land use consistent
with community goals.

d. Make proper use of buffer zones.
Political Framework

1 . Improve the framework for citizen participation
in governmental functions.

a. Keep the public fully informed of governmental
affairs to ensure an awareness of issues,
objectives and decisions (using the various
mass news media, public meetings, exhibitions,
etc.)

b. Develop in people a sense of personal participa-
tion and responsibility (using citizen meetings
and/or committees).

c. Encourage people to voice opinions and to discuss
issues so that those making decisions will be
better able to judge what is in the best interests
of the community as a whole.

2. Establish equitable taxation policies (bases, mix,
rates) .

a. Policies to provide the needed revenue, compatible
with the community's ability to pay the taxes.

b. Make policies completely rational and equitable,
free from any form of discrimination or favorit-
ism.

Table t-1 , cont.

c. Ensure that tax assessors are adequately trained
and skilled to prevent taxation injustices.

d. Select tax bases that are easily understood and
accurately and easily collected.

3. Develop an effective governmental administration.

a. Ensure an efficient management structure within
the administration.

b. All staff appointments to be made on the basis
of capability and special skills (not on
seniority or political affiliations).

c. Fix salary levels and conditions for staff so
that the best available people are attracted.

d. Ensure that decision making at all levels is
free from any political considerations.

e. Ensure full co-ordination and liason between
governmental agencies and also with private
enterprise (to enable a ready exchange of aid,
ideas and information).

4. Establish sound governmental fiscal programs.

a. Examine all existing and possible new sources
of revenue to ensure that all possible revenue
is channeled into the fiscal programs.

b. Ensure that programs achieve the optimum balance
between the community's goals and the finance
available .

c. Ensure that programs are realistic (i.e. within
the economic capability of the community).

d. Coordinate expenditures necessary for the initial
plan implementation.

5. Develop an effective area-wide planning process.

a. Establish a permanent planning organization for
the area.

Table 1-1, cont

b. Ensure that planning is a continuing process by
up-dating and review.

c. Set up regional committees to provide for
representation of each local government unit
in the area in the planning process.

d. Promote funds for research and development in
fields concerning urban development.

e. Promote funds for research and development (in
the planning sphere) necessary to continually
improve the plan as conditions and technology
change.

6. Establish effective regulations and control mechanisms

a. Thoroughly review all existing legislation within
the city (establishing any that are missing,
removing any anomalies, etc.)

b. Legislate for effective land use zoning controls.

c. Legislate for effective land access controls
(to enable more efficient arterial usage).

d. Legislate for effective controls on all nuisances
impairing the urDan environment.

Housing Development

1. Encourage rehabilitation and conservation of
neighborhood programs.

a. Provide incentives for owner's improving by
conservation or rehabilitation.

b. Provide public work improvements to encourage
conservation and rehabilitation.

2. Provide adequate low cost housing.

a. Provide for low cost rental housing.

b. Provide for increased ownership of low cost
housing uni t .

Table 1-1, cont.

3. Develop neighborhood Programs.

a. Provide delimiting boundaries.

b. Provide a central social and cultural institution

c. Provide for recreational and open space facil-
ities .

d. Provide for convenient shopping.

e. Provide for a safe circulation program.

f. Provide for the esthetics of the neighborhood.

g. Provide for adequate land use in the neighborhood
h. Provide for auxiliary activity facilities.

4. Promote a wide variety of housing types as required
within the community.

a. Provide for various choice of housing types.

b. Provide for adequate design and esthetics of
uni ts .

c. Provide for densities of structures.

d. Provide for various area densities.

system which provides for the accessibility requirements
of each land use" which is itself a first order objective
under the goal "public utility and transportation develop-
ment". Some such ordering of generality is necessary for
the purposes of comparison and evaluation. The assignment
of work items to define specific objectives in specific
community situations is a matter for the goal formulation
co'uni i t Lee .

It is important for the planner to be prepared for an
iterative and painstaking analysis. The planner injects
iueas, the participants respond, the planner injects, the
participants respond, etc.

After the fourth or fifth trip around the cycle the
elements which pass through the screen of democratic
approval accord more and more closely with the value
system of the people in the community. In the
process, the idea formulator himself has been tempered
with the heat of his confrontation with his peers,
and he himself, perhaps unwittingly, has become a
more sensitive instrument more closely atuned to
community values. ^

The Ordering of Community Goals and Objectives
The placing of the formulated goals and objectives
into an order is relatively easy using any of the three
methods described below. These methods can be used to
order the goals and then to order the objectives within
each goal. The term "criterion" is used to mean either a
goal or an objective as applicable.

In a ranking method, each of the participant community
influentials gives to the most important criterion the
value 1, the second most important criterion, the value
2, etc.

If there are n criteria and m participants, the
planner converts each rank by subtracting it from n. Thus
i converted rank of n-1 is assigned the criterion receiving
the raw rank of 1, n-2 for the criterion receiving the
raw rank of 2, etc. The composite rank (K.) for a given

criterion (j) is the sum of the converted ranks of all the
m judges.

R. =

Rjj, j = 1, 2, . . . n-1, n

i = 1

A normalized utility value (u . ) associated with each

criterion j over all the participants is then :

, j = 1, 2, . . . n.

u .

j = 1

An example follows

Participants
abed

Partic i pant s

abed

Raw Ranks

Converted RiinKs

Composite Ranks

8/24 = .3*3 "J
7/24 = .292

5/24 = .208

D 4/24 = .167
1.000

Utility Values

A rating technique may also be employed with essentially
the same mathematics. In this case, a list of criteria
is placed adjacent to a scale marked in units continuously
from, say, 10 to 0. A rating of 0 indicates no value and
a rating of 10, the highest possible value. Any value
(including duplicates) along the continuum may be assigned
to any criterion. This avoids the conversion step in the
previous method and, as before,

R. =

and ,

i - 1

R.j5 j = 1, 2,

, J - 1, 2,

n-1

J = 1

Yet another way of ordering the criteria was developed
•v Schimpeler, (1967) modifying a method developed by
Churchman and Ackoff (1954). Let the symbol ( be read
"is preferred to". If criterion j is preferred to
criterion k, G. v G, , then u. \ u, . Let this symbol
/V/ be read "is indifferent to". If G. /\J G, , then

J K

»j = V

Step 1. Rank the criteria according to preference

(perhaps according to methods one and two);

} G2 3 G3 } ■ ' '
r>J r<J /j

G , 1 G , where G, \ G .
n-1 j n' 1 J n

Step 2. Tentatively assign the value u-J = 1 to G, .
Assign tentative utility values to the
remaining criteria according to their
approximate preference,
n

Step 3. If G, I /\ G. (the remaining criteria

j = 2

taken together), adjust uj so that u{/^* u-j

j = 2
n

and proceed to step 4. If G-./V/ \ G. ,

j = 2

adjust u-j so that u| = "^ u!

and

proceed to step A
n

If Cl 1 /\ G"' adJust UJ so Li,aL

j = 2

u,' <^ <C u!. Then drop the least

J - 2
preferred criterion, G , from consideration
and repeat step 3. Continue this process
P

until G, L /\ G. where G is the least

A/ j •- 2

perferred criterion of ail the remainder
taken together when G, first becomes preferred
or indifferent to this combination.

Step 4. Drop the most preferred criterion G, from

consideration and repeat the entire proceedure
for G~ , and G,, , etc., until the last com-

parison; i.e., G 0 versus G , / \ G
r ' ' n-2 n- L n

is completed.

Step 5. The tentative utility values are then normal

i zed before

u!
J

u . =

To carry foreward the previous example, assume that
a participant judge maintains the following relationships
among criteria:

Ga { Gb A Gc A Gd'

r'a j Gb A Gc>

Gb [ Gc A Gd,

]

Gb { Gc ' and

G„ -A/ G. .

c d

Then for u', u' = 1, u' = .8, u1 = .6, u' = .5 and
a ' a ' b ' c ' d

9 is in consonance with the

-I - i < <C_ UJ " l'

j - b

judge's preferences.

Dropping G, from consideration, we find that

< H -j-

1.4, which is counter to the

j - b

judge's preferences. Therefore u' must be adjusted upward
to, say, 1.5, and G is dropped from consideration.

< £_ »r-

Then for u£ , u£ = . 8 <^ \> u! = .9 is in

J = c
consonance with the judge's preferences.

Dropping G, from consideration, we find that

u,' = .8 y u' = .6 which is in consonance with the judge's
preferences. G, is dropped from consideration.

Then for u1 , u' - .6 > u' ■
c ' c / d

to the judge's preferences which reflect that this pair

is indifferent. u' is then ad -justed to .5 to reflect this
c J

indifference and the iterations end.
The new relationships are thus :

u' = 1.5,

u' = u\ = .5, and the associated normalized utility
c d '

values are,

u^ = 1.5/3.3 = .454

u£ = .8/3.3 = .242

u^ = .5/3.3 = .152

u' = .5/3.3 = .152
a 1.000.

In this manner, each goal is compared to all the
"ther goals, each first order objective defining a goal
in compared to the other first order objectives defining
that same goal, and each second order objective defining a
first order objective is compared to the other second
order objectives defining that same first order objective.

What results then, are utility values for each subset
<>f criteria which then must be normalized over the entire
set of criteria. The normalizing is easily done by multiply-
ing the appropriate utility values.

Suppose that the previous example was a comparison of
goals, there being only four in this case.

uA = .454

uR = .242

u = .152

UI) = .152
TTOuTJ

Suppose that goal A was defined by five first order
objectives with the following utility values;

UA1 = -2Z2

UA2 = -306
u'3 = .150

UM = -176

A5 rjm,

and that first order objective Al was defined by seven
second order objectives with the following utility values;

UAla

.102

uAlb

.130

uAlc

.176

UAld

.170

UAle

.200

uAlf

.050

Alg

.172
.000

Let U. equal the utility of goal 1, U!., equal the
non-normalized utility of first order objective j defining
goal i, and (J., equal the normalized utility of first
order objective j defining goal i.

Then U. . equals U. x U*. .
n

and <^f. U . .. = U.j for n first order objectives

LJ 1 defining goal i.
j = 1

Similarly, let U ! . , equal the non-normalized utility
of second order objective k defining first order objective
j, and U... the normalized utility of second order
objective k defining first order objective j.

Then U . . , = U . . x U ! . ,
ijk ij ljk

and *^> U. ., = U. • , for m second order objectives

*- -* -1 defining first order objectiv*

k = 1 j which, in turn, defines

goal i.

ft follows then that, for p goals,
P p n

U. -

■u- ill

= 1

- 1

1-1 j - 1

i = 1 j - 1 k

In the example,

and

UA1 = UA x UM
UA2 = UA * UA2

.454 x .222 - .101
.454 x .306 = .139

UA3 = UA x UA3 = -454 x -150 = -068

UA/ - U. x U' = .454 x .176
A4 A A4

080

UAc - UA x U' = .454 x .146 = .066
A5 A Ai> T&&,

UAla = UA1 * UAla
UAlb " UA1 * UAlb
UAlc = UA1 * UAlc

UAld = UA1 * UAld

UAle = UA1 * UAle

UAlf = UA1 * UAlf

UAlg = UA1 X UAlg

.101

.102

—

.0103

.101

.130

.0131

.101

.176

.0178

.101

.170

.0172

.101

.200

.02 02

.101

.050

.0050

.101

.172

.0174

.1010

This chapter closes with a discussion of some of the
pitfalls that await the unwary planner. The concept of
using community influentials as advocates of the client
constituency is obviously a middle road. On one hand, it
is proposed that the value system so established more
accurately reflects that of the client constituency than
if this value system were established or assumed by the
planner working alone. On the other hand, the value system
established by investigating the full set of individuals
(or a sampled subset) is considered to be an unnecessary
expense. Many social scientists and planners will find
fault with this, and with good reason. But it must be
remembered that real life situations are constrained by
time and money and the process described here bends rigor
to gain feasibility. An obvious matter of further
research would be to measure just how closely such a
process approximates the values of the community as a
whole, taking into account the aforementioned problem of
public education in planning, the great area of indifference
to specific proposals, the transient nature of some resi-
dents and the apathy of others. All these and other
factors mitigate against consensus.

The time dependency of community influence has been
discussed. The planner should be sure that the process
described herein is brought to an expeditious conclusion
and that the values can survive the time span required to
use them in planning and execution. The process described
here bends rigor to gain speed.

Community leaders themselves are biased. Participants
should be instructed to seek some measure of selflessness
in considering goals and objectives. Some residual bias
is not necessarily a fatal defect however, as this bias
is presumably apparent to and supported by the power base
of each position of community influence.

Some leaders may not want to disclose their position
of influence and some may not have the time to participate
In the moderately lengthy negotiations. These factors
should be considered in the selection of the goal formulation
participants. There is the further danger that some genuine
leaders may not be identified in the process and thereby
made opponents of.

Some of the publics identified in Figure 1-1 may have

no leaders, or may constitute such minorities that they

might be ignored by the mechanics of the identification

process. The planner may have to devise safeguards to

protect their best interests.

Finally, the goals and objectives developed by the

client constituency influentials may run counter to the

professional opinion of the planner.

As in the legal profession, client's defined objectives,
priorities, and ultimate strategies take precedence
over those of the professional as long as the pro-
fessional-client relationship exists, but the pro-
fessional can always opt out if selected value systems
and defined courses of action cause moral or profession-
al anguish. 5

The goals and objectives developed, weighed and

measured by the community influentials become, in the last

analysis, a kind of counsel to the planner and to the

decision maker. The latter takes this counsel, adds his

own political, economic, and managerial intelligence, and

decides how to allocate resources to the planning effort.

He decides what, if anything, needs planning most. If

this decision specifies some planning, then the planner

takes that direction, adds the counsel of the community

influentials, and plans.

Notes

Thomas J. Anton, "Politics and Planning in a Swedish
Suburb," p. 262.

2. Richard S. Bolan, "Emerging Views of Planning," p. 243.

3. William L. Grecco, "Planning Methodology and Techniques,"
Course C.K. 613, Purdue University, West Lafayette,
Indiana. These goals and objectives were developed

by Dr. Grecco and his students over several years
during the conduct of this course. The set given is
as of 1971 .

4. Edmund N. Bacon, "Urban Process," The Conscience of
the City, p. 1169.

5. Marshall Kaplan, "Advocacy and the Urban Poor," p. 97.

CHAPTER II
ORGANIZATION

In 1968, the American Institute of Planners committed
itself to consider social and economic development planning
in addition to physical planning in future professional
endeavors. Wetmore (1970) relates how the Committee on
Restatement of Institute Purposes found a cube diagram to
be particularly helpful in visualizing the extent of
comprehensive planning.

This Chapter introduces a modified and refined version
of that cube, the investigation of which forms the basis
for the organization of any planning effort. Subsequent
chapters will again refer to this cube from time to time.
This cube is hypothesized to be an adequate conceptual
model of planning activity.

A Conceptual Model of Planning Activity
Consider the cube illustrated in Figure II-l. One
axis defines the areal scope of planning activity. This
axis Ls bounded at one extreme by the largest physical area
that can be considered in planning, the universe. At the
other extreme is the smallest area, perhaps a single room
in a dwelling. In reality, of course, these limits are
only approached and in between them lie the more commonly
investigated areas of nation, state, region, urban area,
city, community, neighborhood, parcel, etc.

Another axis defines the substantive scope of
planning, from the most comprehensive to the most limited.
At the comprehensive limit of this axis, planning escalates
into policy making and at the limited extreme, planning

4-1

C
•.-I

U-l
O

■u

c
o

PROCEDURAL SCOPE

z
<s>

LxJ
Q

O
u.

z
<

>
z

becomes, in fact, design. The limits of this axis are also
only approached in applied planning and in between lie
the familiar "comprehensive" planning, economic planning,
land use planning, school planning, recreation planning,
Lot lot planning, etc.

The third axis defines the procedural scope of
planning from beginning to end. The basic framework of
this investigation reflects the contention that, of the
three axes, this is the most clearly bounded, the most
.in.i 1 yt i cal ly discrete and the most easily understood. This
ix is maps the planning process through its seven rational
phases; organization, Inventory, analysis, forecasting,
design, evaluation, and implementation. This axis is
generic to any planning irrespective of its substantive or
a real scope.

Consider a single element in this model as illustrated
in Figure 11-2. Let this single element represent an
event in the planning process. Disregarding model boundary
conditions, this event is procedurally preceeded by
another event and followed by a third event. Even if this
one event runs concurrent with many others, it and the
others each have a precedent and an ensuing event in real
time. The inescapable passage of time forces this relation-
ship and thereby provides the methodological basis for an
investigation of the planning process. An ordering of
this event with respect to its precedents and its ensuing
events identifies it along one axis of the cube. This
identification enables the planner to systematically
investigate the relationships of this event with its
neighbors along the substantive scope and areal scope axes.

Any identification along the areal scope axis is a
function of the objectives of the client cons ti tuancy ,
the prior related planning, the resources available, and
the boundaries of the governmental units involved. Any
identification along the substantive scope axis is a

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function of the first three factors above, as well as
being a function of the necessary precursors in planning,
is u population study and an economic base study are
necessary precursors to land use planning.

Consider, by way of example, that event defined by
the intersection of "community", "land use", and "forecast"
along the areal , substantive and procedural scope axes
respectively. This is illustrated in Figure IT-3.

Occurring at a point in time before the community
land use forecast must be a community land use analysis;
that is, the structuring of the base data to accurately
portray the state of community land use at a point in time
and from which forecasting will be made. Occurring at a
point in time after the community land use forecast will
be one or more community land use designs based upon the
forecasted data. These relationships are procedural and
occur a Long the procedural scope axis.

Along the areal scope axis there are two problems.
First, the area of the element itself must be defined
in space. Second, the relationships of that elemental
area to that that includes it, possibly here called the
region, and to those that make up it, possibly here called
neighborhoods, must be explored. The use of this conceptual
model forces the planner to make these explicit considera-
tions, generally called delimiting the study area.

Along the substantive scope axis of the model, the
planner is forced to fit the plan in question into a
hierarchy of planning, recognizing that some plans are so
general as to be policy statements which generally recommend
further planning. Further, as plans become more limited
in substantive scope, they tend toward specific design
measures and action programs which have more apparent impact,
on the community. As plans tend toward specific designs
they draw upon explicit or assumed or intuitive prior

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planning as necessary precursors. Thus the community land
use forecast must be based on some higher order informa-
tion contained in the community population forecast, and
the land use forecast itself has a relationship to its
parts such as the community industrial land use forecast,
residential land use forecast, etc .

The Use of the Model in Planning Organization
As a result of the process described in the last
chapter, the planner has been given a charter to develop
a plan. This development logically begins with an investiga-
tion of the plane of the model cube defined by the sub-
stantive scope axis and the areal scope axis. This is
illustrated in Figure II-4 and the planner must now set
the boundary conditions of his effort and design a study
that will fulfill the goals of his client constituency as
near optimally as possible.

Considering first an investigation of the areal scope
axis, it is apparent that any chosen boundary must be a
function of the type of study to be done. Given this,
the factors to be considered can be thought of as comprising
three catagories, socio-economic, physical and political.

It is difficult to cite some examples of socio-
economic influences on areal scope outside of the context
of a specific kind of study. Nonetheless it seems apparent
that if the study deals with a service such as those
available in a Central Business District, or those provided
by transportation, that the area studied will be markedly
affected by the geographical distribution of those people
likely to use the service. Sometimes this can be
interpreted from symptomatic data such as the agricultural
milkshed, the commuter shed, or the retail trade shed.
Any such planning study dealing with the provision of a
service and thereby satisfying a demand can probably best
be delimited by setting thresholds of maximum and minimum

PROCEDURAL

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areal size. The minimum areal size may be also a functional
consideration of the facility such as the minimum number
and types of stores in a shopping area, or the minimum
number of students to economically support a secondary
school .

Physical characteristics of the area set some geo-
graphical boundaries. The building of a highway or the
bridging of a river may extend the study area more in one
direction than another.

Much of the analysis of both socio-economic and
physical factors lends itself to graphical interpretation.
Figure II-5 displays the often encountered shapes of demand
curves of the plots of distance (or time as a measure of
distance) versus the cumulative percentage of people whose
needs are satisfied at this distance. The factors plotted
could be "secondary school students walking to school" or
"metropolitan newspaper deliveries" or "patrons of a
amusement park" or any such factor bearing on the study at
hand. The abscissa measures the "friction of space". The
slope changes indicated could be interpreted as occuring at
that point of distance, the threshold, where a marginal
increase of the factor loses significance.

Those factors deemed to he important and representa-
tive by the planner could then be plotted on a map of
suitable scale and some approximation made of a limit lo
the study area suitable for them all.

One of the most important influences in delimiting
the study area is political. If a governmental agency
provides some or all of the funds, the study boundary could
be directed to be the political boundary of that agency.
The same holds true for a private employer. If outside
factors are still important, they can sometimes be simulated
as "influence sources" or "influence sinks" at the
appropriate edges of the study area.

DISTANCE

Figure II-5
Conceptual Demand Curves

There are two remaining decisions to be made regarding
delimiting the study area. One must always consider the
extent of the resources available for planning. Nearly
every resource can be reduced to dollars and for any effort
the dollars available must, at least equal the dollars
needed .

Finally there remains the concept of prior work and
necessary precursors. IE, for instance, the planner is
directed to study housing in an area, and there exists
accurate recent population data for a somewhat larger or
smaller or overlapping area, he must consider the cost of
adapting these data to his proposed area versus changing
his area to fit the existing data base. This leads directly
to the investigation of the other axis defining the organiza-
tional plane in Figure II -4, and the concept of a hierarchy
of planning.

This other axis is used to measure the substantive
scope of planning and reflects the existence of a hierarchy
of planning. By hierarchy of planning, it is recognized
that different plans may address the same subject in
different detail. One would not logically find a timing
order for sequential traffic signals on Main Street in a
comprehensive plan, although that plan will offer the
general scheme for a desired transportation system. A
next lower order plan, the transportation plan, will
probably continue to refine this subject but the timing
order would probably be designed in a still lower order
plan, the major thoroughfare plan. In the same manner, a
comprehensive plan may speak of school locations by
community, a land use plan may designate a large parcel for
school development, a school plan may site the school, and
finally an architect/engineer designs the building. One
would not logically find the siting considerations or the
building design in the comprehensive plan.

Those examples demon straLe that there is an order
of generality and comprehensiveness in planning, from the
management of gross data over comprehensive consideration
to the management of specific data over limited consideration
This same axis measures the orderly development of planning
from policy making to design, from the general to the
specific .

Unfortunately for the reputation of planning as a
profession, this means that the results of some plans are
mandates for further planning. So to counteract l his, one
sometimes finds the most amazingly discrete recommenda-
tions in otherwise broadly comprehensive plans. This is a
forced consideration, however, and one that does not
immediately follow from the scope of data considered. In
general though, the order of planning measured along the
substantive scope axis is relative, with higher order plans
dealing with gross data, many disparate factors for con-
sideration, and being policy oriented. Lower order plans
are concerned with specific data, allied factors for
consideration, and action programs and specific designs.

Ideally, a planner should be directed to plan in
this natural progression from the general to the specific.
Various factors, some political and some arising from
competition for scarce resources, sometimes force the
planner to "start in the middle". If, for instance, a
client constituency wants a land use plan and has no
comprehensive plan, population or economic base studies,
the planner must compensate for this by designing that land
use planning process if not to overcome, at least to ease
the impact of the absence of this higher order policy and
data. He may design the study to incorporate some of the
major elements of population and economic base studies and
term the resultant land use plan as "interim" pending the
results of recommended further study. In this case, the
population and economic base studies are necessary

precursors to land use planning and, if they do not exist,
the planner must compensate Cor this in the study design.

The Use of the Model in Study Design
The design of an urban planning process is called a
study design. A study design often is comprised of three
types of documents, a prospectus, the study design itself,
and one or more procedural or operational manuals.

A prospectus is a highly distilled general statement
of the objectives of a particular study, the role of various
agencies and participants in the study, the general process
to be followed, some gross estimate of the time involved
and a gross estimate of the cost. The objectives stated
are those of a particular study which follow from, and
should not be confused with, the goals and objectives of
the client constituency in the meaning of Chapter I. This
is a most sensitive document to author as it is used to
justify funding of the study design. Many times the pro-
spectus is prepared with very limited funds in the hope
that the ensuing justification will provide funds to cover
its costs. Great care should be taken in the wording of
the study objectives so that if subsequent investigation
reveals that these objectives are for some reason not
suitable, they may be amended without threatening the
funding. Even more care should be taken to insure that any
cost figures given are sufficient to complete the study
design. The prospectus is the document prepared to make
an initial estimate of the study feasibility and to fund
the study design, and these funds should not be confused
with those generated by and justified by the study design
to do the actual planning. The finished prospectus presents
decision makers with a basis to judge whether or not to
proceed with the study design. As such it is a decision
point Cor the sometimes many sponsoring agencies involved.
In the case where the single private developer is the

decision-maker, this process of evolving a prospectus could
well be carried out orally. Given the decision and Lhe funds
to proceed, the next stop is to design the .study.

The study design itself is a work program formula-
tion of the steps necessary to do the planning. it is some-
what similar to this discussion in that it is not the
planning but instead the planning methodology. it. should
define what is to be done, who is to do it, when it will
be done and how much it will cost.

Here the conceptual model of planning activity is most
valuable. Figure II-6(a) shows the ideal structuring of
the planning process. Here all necessary higher order
planning has been accomplished, there is no major inter-
action with greater or smaller geographic areas, all
necessary precursors are present, policy is set and the
planner can proceed up the procedural axis from organization
to implementation in designing the study.

it is much more likely however that the elemental
interface considerations forced by the conceptual use of
the model will disclose vacancies in higher order planning,
elemental interaction with greater or lesser geographic
areas that cannot be ignored, the absence of necessary
precursors or policy or a combination of all these.

Figure II-6(b) represents the case where an element
of a necessary higher order plan is missing and must be
addressed in the lower order plan, and therefore in the
lower order plan study design.

An example might be a land use plan study design where
it was found necessary to complete or amend a prior economic
base study forecasting.

Figure Il-6(c) represents the case where elemental
interaction with both lesser and greater geographic areas
forces that interaction to be explicitly addressed in the
plan, and therefore in the plan study design. An example
might be a community major thoroughfare plan where the

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regional major thoroughfare already implemented forces
some aspects of the community plan, and the community plan
itself affects the design, evaluation and implementation
of neighborhood feeders.

Figure II -6(d) represents the case where a higher
order plan, such as a comprehensive plan, even though not
quite complete, can influence a plan several levels below
it, such as an urban renewal plan.

These, of course, are merely examples of the great
number of elemental interactions that could exist for a
particular proposed plan under particular conditions in
a specific situation. The important concept is that the
use of the conceptual model of planning activity in the
study design forces the planner to consider these inter-
actions and allow for them where necessary in the study
design and thereby avoid mistakes of omission. Further
discussion of the relationships of each successive element
along the procedural scope axis follows in Chapters 111
through VIII.

A study design must address the questions of pro-
cedure, staffing and cost nearly simultaneously. Normally,
the framework used for analysis beginning with the inventory
phase and ending with implementation is that of procedure,
with the study then broken down and reassembled to check
for staffing and cost feasibility. In the organization
phase, first consideration is more often given to staffing
and funding.

This work will not examine the staffing of consultant
operations or the moot question of single source funding as
in the case of the single private developer. Rather it
will examine staffing and funding in the multiple sponsor
public sector of planning. Four generalized staffing
schemes are illustrated in Figure I 1-7 (Hensen, 1968).

The poJ icy committee is typically composed of
elected or appointed officials of the participating public

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Four Conceptual Staffing Schemes

agencies. It establishes the framework of the study, sets
policy and finance, makes appointments to other committees,
employs key personnel, reviews plans and makes the ultimate
decisions as to selection of alternatives. They are the
decision makers. In the Rhode Island Statewide Compre-
hensive Transportation and Land Use Planning Program (1965)
for example, this policy committee was composed of:

the State Director of Public Works,

the Executive Director of the Rhode Island

Development Council,
the Program Director,
the Director of the State Department of

Business Regulation,
the Chairman of the Rhode Island Public

Transit Authority,
the Mayor, City of Cranston,
the Mayor, City of Pawtucket,
the Mayor, City of Providence,
the Director, Eastern Region, Federal

Aviation Agency,
the Division Engineer, Rhode Island Division,

United States Bureau of Public Roads,
and the Regional Administrator, New York

Regional Office, United States Housing

and Home Finance Agency.

The Citizens' Advisory Committee(s) is composed of
key business, labor, civic leaders and public officials
who advise the policy committee on matters of public
concern. They in turn aid in the general public's under-
standing of the key concepts of the resultant plans. Sued
a committee could be identically the same as, or a sub-
committee of, that described in Chapter I.

The Technical Committee is typically composed of
planners, engineers and other professionals who are called
upon to both advise the policy committee and advise and
possibly direct the staff or consultant. Since there
is this dual purpose, there are often two such committees,
one composed of those professionals who are direct partici-
pants in the study and the other made up to tap professional
resources not so directly involved. fn the Joint Program
for the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (1963), the directly

participating technical committee was made up of:

representatives of the Minnesota Highway Department,
representatives of the Twin Cities Metropolitan

Planning Commission,
representatives of the Minneapolis City Planning

Commission ,
representatives of the St. Paul Planning Board,
the Minneapolis Engineer,
the St. Paul Engineer,
the Washington County Engineer,
the Scott County Engineer,
the Ramsey County Engineer
the Itennepin County Engineer,
the Dakota County Engineer,
the Carver County Engineer,
and the Anoka County Engineer.

The use of permanent staffs, staffs contributed from
participating agencies, and the degree of use of consul-
tants is a matter for the judgment of the policy committee
based upon the need and availability of resources. In
analyzing the generalized staffing forms shown in Figure
1 1 - 7 , Hensen notes that IT-7(a) is characteristic of large
urban areas in a position to pay the continuing salaries
and expenses of such a staff. Form II-7(b) may be more
economical but with a degradation of service by contributing
agencies commensurate with their contribution to the study
staff. Often this degradation is not acceptable if the
contributing agency is a small one and such a structure has
the tendency to he dominated by the larger contributors
who can more easily minimize this degradation. Form II -7(c)
is characterized by the use of a local, small, but permanent
staff to direct the work of the consultant. This is quite
expeditious in that it can get the study moving without taking
the time to fill many staff positions or negotiate with
contributing agencies for staff support. Form II-7(d) is
the most expeditious of all in that it eliminates entirely
the difficult problems associated with staffing.

Generally, as consideration of staffing alternatives
moves from ll-7(a) to fl-7(d) there is an increase in cost.

an increase in speed of accomplishment, a decrease in
personnel associated problems and a decrease in the level of
effort assigned to a continual planning process as opposed
to a single plan. These are important questions for the
decision maker, answered only by an examination of the
resources available in a specific situation.

The Study Design Methodology

Given that participating agencies feel a need to plan,
and that a prospectus has been authored defining the sub-
stantive scope and the areal scope of the effort (what to
plan), and that based upon this prospectus the participating
agencies have funded a study design and formed a policy
committee, and this policy committee has appointed
coordinating committees and established an organizational
structure (who will plan, , there remain two unanswered
questions before a decision can be made to proceed; namely
how to plan and what will it cost. Both of these questions
are answered in the study design.

What follows here is an examination of study design
methodology. This is inextricably tied with planning
methodology, addressed phase by phase in this work,
beginning, of course, with this chapter on organization.
Much of the detail of planning methodology must then neces-
sarily be deferred to later chapters and one cannot design
a study without reference to the information contained
therein. But because study design is necessarily accompl-
ished in the organization phase, the methodology therefore
must be examined at this juncture.

This first step in study design is to construct a
precedence diagram or flow chart of the major activities
to be performed. The ordering of activities in this
precedence is one of work, which is similar to but not
necessarily the same as one of time. Two examples are
given in Figures II-8 and 11-9.

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As can be seen for these examples , this flow chart
is a schematic "thinking through" of the study by examining
it with reference to the procedural scope axis of the
planning model.

The next step further refines the flow chart by
breaking each flow chart element into its appropriate work
items and continuing the assignment of precedence. An
example is given in Figure 11-10, from the Cleveland Seven
County Transportation/Land Use Study, (1966). Note that
this example deals substantively with the subject matter of
this chapter and its illustrative purpose here is thus
twofold .

Because of the great number of work Items that are
likely to be considered, it becomes helpful to code the
work items. This coding should be so devised that a
single unique number will identify a work item for budgeting,
work scheduling, progress reporting, cost accounting and
filing. Rhode Island (1965), for example, used a six
digit number with the first digit defining the substantive
scope, the second digit the procedural scope, and the
remaining digits in sequential order. Thus if "5" were
land use and "3" were analysis, the 530000 series of work
items all deal with land use analysis.

This process of breakdown is repeated as many times
as necessary until the planner feels he has a sufficient
uniqueness of each work item to enable him to tentatively
assign resources for its accomplishment. The planner then
assigns resources based upon their expected availability
as established by the policy committee of decision makers.
In some cases, there may be only a single cost figure
necessary to describe the case where a consultant will be
asked to perform the work item. At the opposite extreme
of a full time permanent study staff, the assignment of
resources is exampled in Table 11-1.

Table II-l

Sample Work Item Resource Assignment"

Work Item Number

Title:

Objective :

Method :

Procedure :

Input:
Output:

Personnel :

570002
570003
570004
570005
570006

Compute and distribute socio-economic
data: 1990, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985.

To obtain input data for generation
of trip productions and attractions.

The selected land use plan will be
based on forecasts to 1990. Accomplish-
ment of the recommended pattern of
development must be "staged" at five
year intervals from 1970 to 1990 in
order to determine transportation and
other facility requirements for each
period.

Forecasts prepared in five year
increments provide the basis for staging
the land use plan. The analysis of
development potential will help guide
the staging process. Policy decisions,
such as those involved in extension
of utility services or construction of
community facilities, will also be
considered.

570000

A staff memorandum describing the
staging process and quantifying socio-
economic data for each forecast year.

Chief Planner
Principal Planner
Senior Planner
Data Processing Chief
Programmer (1401)
Senior Engineering Aide
Junior Planner
Typist

5 days
10 days
2 5 days

5 days
? 5 days
2 5 days
25 days
15 days

Table II-l , cont.

Equipment: Desk Calculator

Planimeter
IBM 1401 Computer 10 hours

Cost: Personnel $ 3,552

Computer 500

Other 0

Total $ 4,050

Allocation : R I D C

When the tentative assignment of resources is complete
for every work item, the planner aggregates these resources
by catagory over all the work items. He may discover, for
instance, that he has assigned 393 senior planner man-days
and at 218 man-days per man-year, the policy committee must
hire a senior planner for 1.8 years. All resources are so
aggregated and then a final distribution of resources i s
made taking into consideration feasibility, (hire a senior
planner for two years and assign .2 man-years of non-senior
planner work); resource availability, (is a senior planner
available); and procedural constraints illuminated in the
flow chart, (perhaps two senior planners can be hired for
a year each and work concurrently) .

This is the point in study design where the planner
must actually schedule the work within the resource con-
straints'. These are management decisions and the PER'J'/CPM
methodologies are highly recommended as tools to aid this
managerial effort. O'Brien (1969) is an excellent reference
for these methodologies. Upon completion, the planner
reports to the policy committee/decision maker the answers
to the questions posed by them; namely, how will we pJan
and what will it cost.

Of course it is recognized that this detailed managerial
effort is costly. It is clearly wasteful if the scope of
the planning or the experience of the planning staff is
such that good management would deem it unnecessary. Should
these or other circumstances allow it, the complexity of
the planning study design as outlined here can be reduced.

The conclusion of the study design is the next decision
point for the policy committee/decision maker. Should they
feel that the study methodology is within their resources
and that all prior decisions are still germane, they can
decide to proceed with the plan itself. For small or
relatively straightforeward plans, the planner can proceed
directly to his designed inventory phase.

More often, however, there exists a need for one
further elaboration and refinement of the study design to
educate the staff in procedure. This refinement is usually
satisfied by the preparation of procedural manuals for
selected elements in the study design. A procedural manual
gives step by step direction to a practitioner. Very
commonly, procedural manuals are written for home interviewers
to set standards of appearance, insure that the information
is entered correctly on the form, to provide the interviewer
with the answers to probable interviewee questions, to set
work standards and generally to try to set a uniformity of
procedure from interview to interview. Procedural manuals
are also often prepared for key punch coders to ease the
strain of interpretation. If the answer in box 33 is "yes",
enter "1" in line 64 on the card, etc.

Occasionally the policy committee decision makers will
fund the preparation of procedural manuals separately from
and before the study itself. If so, the completion of the
procedural manuals then represents yet another decision point
for the policy committee. As before, if all still augurs
well, the decision may be made to proceed and the planner
enters the inventory phase of the plan.

In summary, there are four decisions in this organiza-
tion phase. The first is the decision to plan and this
results in a formal structuring of the decision makers
(policy committee, advisory committees) and the preparation
of a prospectus. The second is the decision to design a
study and this results in resource allocations. The third
decision results in procedural or operational manuals as
deemed necessary. The fourth decision examines the feasib-
ility of the study as a whole and results in a decision
whether or not to proceed to the inventory phase of planning.
In practice, some of these decisions may run together but
they are always nonetheless implicitly or explicitly made.

In closing, it should be pointed out that if there is
one phase of the planning process that is subject to
criticism, it is this of organization. There is probably
no phase more consistantly underfunded in practice, owing
the failure of the policy committee to realize that to plan
once they must actually plan twice. The planning process
must be examined from beginning to end via the study design
and then the planning itself executed. The reluctance of
the policy committee to expend considerable resources before
even "starting" is understandable and therein lies a
dilemma which can only be mitigated through a wider under-
standing of the planning process. It is obvious that if
the study design will not yield the results sought after,
the study itself can hardly be expected to make up this
deficiency .

Notes

1. R. J. Hensen, "Development of an Informational Manual
on the Urban Transportation Planning Process for
Technical Committees in Smaller Urban Areas," p. 68.

2. After Cleveland Seven County Transportation/Land Use
Study, "Operations Plan," CPM/PERT Network.

3. Rhode Island Statewide Comprehensive Transportation and
Land Use Planning Program, "Program Design Report,"

p. 239.

CHAPTER III
INVENTORY

Figure I I I - 1 presents the inventory plane of the con-
ceptual model of planning activity. On this plane lie all
the pieces of information or data necessary to plan over
the entire substantive and areal scopes of urban planning.

The information all exists. It may be not collected,
or collected in an unusable form, or collected by an
agency which is unknown or unavailable to the planner. It
may be collected and at hand but too old or too biased.
But it all exists and the seeking out, sorting and using of
this information usually constitutes by far the most expen-
sive phase of the planning process. This seeking out and
sorting of information for eventual use is termed the
inventory phase of planning and procedurally follows organ-
ization and preceeds analysis.

One way to approach the problem of taking inventory is
to recognize that there are, in general, two major end uses
of data. Data may be used to describe a situation or to
analyze a situation. Although in practice this distinction
sometimes is blurred, its importance is such as to warrent
continued consideration here.

Consider descriptive data. Information such as this
is used to describe a situation and compare that situation
to others by comparing the equivalent descriptive data sets.
From a methodological standpoint, there exists a marked
tendency to use those descriptive data items already avail-
able rather than to initiate a new collection. This follows
from the intuitive or explicit knowledge that mosl situations
can be- described in many ways, even by symptomatic data in

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place of causal data. Thus, the data needs are not
rigorously constrained and available data are easily sub-
stituted for what were originally considered desired data.

Descriptive data must sometimes be differently aggre-
gated to make them meaningful to the decision maker and
client constituency. The planner may find it helpful to
deal with parts-per-million of an air contaminant, for
instance. But it may be more meaningful to describe that
concentration as pounds swallowed per year — that being enough
to kill a horse etc.

So descriptive data can be characterized as substitut-
able, possibly symptomatic, comparative, readily available
and meaningful to the general recipient. Taken together,
sets of descriptive data are said to describe a level of
service. This level of service then represents the balance
struck between the demand for that service and the resources
allocated to fulfilling that demand.

"Level of service" is something of an elusive term and
is only defined within the context of a problem. The level
of service of a transportation facility, for instance, may
be expressed in terms of travel time, safety, comfort,
convenience, cost or any combination of these and other
factors. The choice of expression is strongly influenced
by its meaningfulness to the client constituency.

The level of service of a university, for instance, may
be described by the data sets shown in Table III-l. Some
data are both available and meaningful in the academic
community, some are equally available but have acquired a
lesser meaning, and some, of course, are unknown. In cross
classification, some data may be termed descriptive because
of their inherently strong theoretical basis. Some data
rest on somewhat weaker theory, some are symptomatic and
some may be false and misleading. The example given here
can be argued against but, taken as a whole, it does describe
a level of service and becomes particularly meaningful when

Table lll-l
Descriptive Data Showing a University Level of Service

Known and
Meaningful

Known and Less
Meaningful Unknown

Undergraduate

hours taught
by instructors

Staff counseling

time/student

Alumni Dollar

Support

Strong Theoretical
Basis for
Description

Weaker Theoretical
Basis for
Description

Symptomatic
Descriptors

False
Descriptors

Admission
Standards

Dollar
value Staff
Research

Number and
Kind of
Academic
Awards

Football
Record

the status of one university are compared to some "standard"
or yet another university.

The second and other general type of data are analytic
in nature. This type of data probably has associated with it
very strong elements of causality. Failing that, it at
least has been proven to be, or is strongly suspected of
being, highly correlated with as yet undiscovered elements
of causality. Data of this type is measured with a stated
degree of precision and is used in calibrating analytic
models of growth and behavior. Because these data are used
in model building they are, or should be, forecastable on a
sound theoretical basis. They are generally not substitut-
able as were the descriptive data and therefore must be
collected regardless of expense. It is the need for these
data that precipitates field work of sometimes vast propor-
tions and this is largely what determines their expense.

As opposed to descriptive data, aim lytic data are
causative or highly correilated to cause, precise, fore-
castable, expensive and sine qua non to ensuing analysis.

Obviously then, the need for analytic data must be
closely examined. The need for such data must be fully
documented and justified in the most rigorous way to ensure
that the cost of collection is not borne unnecessarily.
Each analytic data item collected must have its use in later
analysis and forecasting phases of the planning process.

Of course, when the undeniable need for some analytic
data item precipitates an expensive collection procedure,
that procedure often makes some descriptive data marginally
beneficial when collected under the the same procedure.
The archetypical case is the United States decennial census
which was first organized to count people and now has been
broadened considerably.

Still caution must be applied here, too. Any data
must be coded, stored, retrieved, displayed and manipulated
in many ways and there are very real costs associated with
all these activities. The collection of data, no matter how
easy or difficult, must be based on the need for that data
in the ensuing phases of the planning process. It is to
minimize the cost of data collection and its subsequent
manipulation, if for no other reason, that the organization
phase described in the previous chapter is so important.
Before any data are collected there must be some iterative
feedback from the analysis and forecasting phases to that
of inventory to ensure that there is a necessary end use
for each data item and that no end uses go wanting for data.

So in selecting those data to be collected, the
planner's charter is to be highly selective and discrimina-
tory in the ad hoc situation. Nothing is gained and much is
lost in collecting data for their own sake.

In Chapter II, one of the purposes of the organization
phase of the planning process was to establish a highly

distilled statement of the objectives of a particular plan.
This was generally done in the study design and, more
specifically, in the prospectus. In the inventory phase of
the planning process, each data item collected must sub-
stantially contribute to the achievement of those objectives.
The only justification for incurring the cost of collection
and subsequent manipulation of data is that those data make
this contribution. All data not making this contribution
are superfluous to the plan considered, and a mismanagement
of resources.

As an example of the type of analysis needed to preclude
such an occurrance, Table III-2 has been prepared showing a
hypothetical set of land use plan objectives and the data
items necessary to achieve them. This table has been
abstracted from the areal scope axis of the conceptual model
of planning activity and, accordingly, no attempt should be
made to employ it quid pro quo in an actual planning process.

A Data - Use Matrix

As an example of the types of data generally collected
in urban planning, Figure III-2 matches these data against
end use by plan. Data items considered here are compiled
from three general sources (Hearle and Mason, 1963; Maxman,
1968; and Tiebout, 1962). The fourteen planning processes
listed are representative of the range of urban planning
activity measured along the substantive axis of the model.
For each cell defined by a data item and a planning process,
an "A" is entered if that data item is generally used in an
analytical way in the process and a "DM is entered if the
data item is generally used in a descriptive way in the
process. No entry signifies that the data item is indifferent
to that planning process.

The matrix is generalized and bears no relationship
to a particular geographic area measured along the areal
scope axis of the model. Accordingly, the matrix can be

Table III-2
Sample Land Use Plan Objectives and Data Items

Broad Plan Objective:

Specific Plan Objectives:

Data to be Collected

1. Base Maps and Charts

A. Regional Map

To provide a plan for orderly
and optimum use of major
community resources of land,
both spatially and quantita-
tively.

a. To determine the kinds of
land use required for the
community.

b. To determine (based upon
standards acceptable to
the community) intensity
of development for each
land use.

c. To establish the amount
of land required in each
land use.

d. To properly locate each
land use, relative to
each other.

e. To coordinate with other
planning .

f. To establish procedures
for implementation.

g. To secure citizen coopera-
tion.

h. To research.

Purpose of Collection

For displaying or plotting
data collected and to serve
as a basis for studies.

To determine the community's
geographic location and
relation to surrounding cities
and communities, indicating
any specialized land uses.

Table 1 II-? , cont

Street, Road and
Highway Map indicat-
ing right-of-way,
width, and struc-
tural capacity

C. Topographic Map

D. Geological Map

To determine location of
circulation system and can be
used in tabulating area
used for streets, roads and
highways to assist in class-
ification of street system.

To determine drainage patterns
and general suitability of
areas for specific types of
development .

To determine existance of
deposits of materials of
possible commercial value and
thereby determine suitable
land use.

E. Soils Map

F. Zone Map

G. Existing Land Use
Maps

Public and semi-
public facilities,
such as public
buildings, parks,
playgrounds ,
schools, hospitals,
churches, museums,
treatment plants,
libraries, etc.

Private facilities
such as single
family, two family
and multi-family
residences, com-
mercial buildings,
light and heavy
industry .

To determine suitability for
various types of buildings,
airports, and other structures
requiring special foundations.

To determine existing zones in
use by the city.

To determine categories of
present land use and for
tabulating land use by per-
centage of total land.

To determine location and
number of community and
private facilities.

To determine location and
availability of lakes, forests,
and other areas suitable for
recreational development.

To determine adequacy of
facilities by coordination
with other development plans
to establish areas required
for future use;

Table III-2, cont

3. Undeveloped and
vacant areas.

Location of navigable
rivers, railroads, RR
sidings and stations,
piers and wharfs, bus
terminals, airports,
etc .

Location of pollution
discharges and the
Sag curve for various
points along rivers
and streams. Also
location of signifi-
cant air pollution
sources .

To determine available vacant
area for future development.

To determine the measure of
accessibility for various
land parcels.

To determine the possible
uses of adjacent land.

J. Easements for public
utilities noting
ownership, existing
utility lines and
their capacities.

K. Population Density
Map

Population Changes
Map

M. Land Value Map

Percentages employed in
each occupational
category.

To determine planning of
future land uses on the basis
of their utility needs.

To determine present popula-
tion density by area and
evaluate existing densities

To determine future density
and community facility
requirements .

To determine population
movement, increases and
decreases .

To determine economic suit-
ability of land use pro-
posals .

Determine primary and
secondary functions of
community and to relate
land use requirements to
these functions.

Table III-2, cont

3. Populations and their
composition by age,
groups, income and sex

To determine building types
and population density.

To determine types of land
use required.

To determine standards for
intensity of use of land.

To determine amounts of
each land use.

4. Aerial Photographs

To determine percentage of
each type of residential
development .

To determine community
facilities required on a
neighborhood, community and
regional basis.

To determine, in conjunction
with other data collected,
land use and geographic
features .

5. Prevailing Winds

To determine spatial
relation of industrial and
other land use.

6. Area Industrial Trends

a. Standard Industrial
Classification

To determine tha area
attractions to certain SIC
classes .

b. Average land used and
number of employees
for each class number

c. Historical trends on
economic activity

1. Number of labor
force

2 . Percent unemployed

3. Basic/non-basic
ratio

To determine existing land
use requirements in terms of
employees .

To determine future economic
potential .

Table III-2 , cont.

d . List of community To determine the range of
attributes important industries which might be
to industry. attracted.

7. Area Population Forecasts To determine future population

so it can be related to use
requirements .

8. All other plans prepared To coordinate with Land Use
for development, such as Plan.

schools, recreation, etc.

9. List of civic organiza- To secure citizen cooperation
tions and their officers and participation.

< Q

GO Q < Q SALE DATE

O O Q < Q SALE PRICE *

a a < o a real estate tax revenue h

O O O < < O ASSESSED VALUE LAND a IMPROVEMENTS 2

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g <t<OQQQ<Q LANDMARK g =>

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^ < < Q VARIANCE ^

< < < < < ZONING _

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< Q O O < l/TUTtO WW RIGHT OF WAY

< Q < Q O < < CONDITION

Q < < < < < ACCESS CONTROL

< < <<<< 0<< SCHOOL ROUTE

< < <<<<<0<< TRANSIT ROUTE

< < < < < LOAOMO ZONE

< < O < < NUMBER Of LANES
Q O O O O O < STREET LIGHTS

Q Q Q Q O O < SIDEWALKS

< < < < < CURB PARKING

< < O < < SPEED LIMIT

< < O < < TRAFFIC CONTROL DEVICES

< O < O Q<<< NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS

< < < Q < < PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC Z

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W < < < < < PAVEMENT WIDTH OT

uj — *

I- < < < < < RIGHT OF WAY WIDTH S2

< < Q < < LENGTH OF SEGMENT

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< < < < < UTILITY SCHV1CE

a a < o o o o fme calls

Q O < O O O O POUCE CALLS

Q < < < < REHABILITATION COST

< < < < <

NUMBER S TYPE OF
BUILDING CODE VIOLATIONS

Q < < < < FWST FLOOR AREA

Q < < < < TOTAL FLOOR AREA

2 °

Q < < < < NUMBER OF FLOORS

< < < < < < < BUILDMG CONOITION

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number a types o'

COMMUNICABLE DISEASl

O Q < < O

WELFARE PAYMENT

Q < < Q

Q O < O < Q

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■ANS OF TRANSPC*!.

TO WORK
< < PLACE OF WORK

Q < O < O O O << VCHICLES OWNED

Q Q Q Q O Q OCCUPATION

Q O Q O Q O

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FAMILY EDUCATION

FAMILY INCOME

<a<<0<tO<<<<<< RESIDENTS BY SEX B AOE

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OF SALES TO AREA NON-CAPITAL

< MANUFACTURING FIRMS ,

PCRCCNT TO FIRMS BY TYPES

Of SALES TO AREA FIRMS

< or NON-CAPITAL aooos,

PERCENT TO MANUFACTURING

OF SALES TO AREA FIRMS OF

< NON-CAPITAL GOODS, PERCENT TO

INSURANCE, FINANCE a REAL ESTATE

OF SALES TO AREA FIRMS

< OF NON-CAPITAL GOODS,

PERCENT TO RETAIL

OF SALES TO AREA FIRMS

< OF NON-CAPITAL GOODS,

PERCENT TO CONSTRUCTION
OF SALES TO AREA FIRMS

< OF NON-CAPITAL GOODS,
< PERCENT TO AGRICULTURE
(-

Q ^. OF SALES INSIDE AREA, PERCENT TO

^ TO ADCA riPUC DC TAPITAI rtfTDnr. L^

AREA FIRMS OF NON-CAPITAL GOODS JT

OF SALES INSIDE AREA, PERCENT
TO AREA FIRMS OF CAPITAL GOODS

«, OF SALES INSIDE AREA, PERCENT

TO LOCAL S STATE GOVERNMENTS

<, OF SALES INSIDE AREA, PERCENT

TO CONSUMERS DIRECTLY

^ „ OF SALES OUTSIDE AREA, PERCENT OT

Q ** TO FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Z)

i ^

g < PERCENT SALES OUTSIDE AREA

z < < < MAJOR PRODUCT GROUPS

< < < < < < OPTIMUM TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
< < < < < < NUMtfh OF EMPLOYEES

< < < < < RCAK SHIFT EMPLOYEES

faulted in the context of a specific real life plan.
Nonetheless most of the analytic and descriptive relation-
ships were hypothesized to hold true from location to
1 ocation .

Neither is the matrix exhaustive, but rather illustra-
tive of the analytic/descriptive split of data end uses.
It further shows how one data item may change end use from
one type of plan to another. The non-dwelling unit data
illustrated will provide the means for carrying out but one
type of the several possible economic base studies, any one
of which may be preferable to that shown. Further, some
whole classes of data have been omitted, such as that data
set dealing with the engineering features of the soil,
water table, topography, extractive potential, etc.

The strategy in designating analytic or descriptive
relationships was one of minimizing the number of analytic
relationships to a level commensurate with the detail
required for a particular plan. In a real life situation,
this same strategy should be employed as a measure of
economy. Secondly, the question of degree of aggregation of
data has been deferred to later in the chapter.

The data have been organized into two main classes,
land data and structural data. Street data are a special
type of land data and structural data are further refined
depending on whether the structure is a dwelling unit or
not. All data items associated with people are linked
to the dwelling unit in which they abide.

Land Data
Land Use. As can be seen from the matrix, these data
are one of the singular primary inputs to analysis over much
of the range of urban planning. They describe the actual
land use as opposed to zoning and variance which describe
the legal use and any relaxation of the law. The source of
land use data is a field survey and the source of /oniric
and variance data is appropriate governmental records.

Ownership. The need for owner identification occurs
when particular land parcels may be considered for acquisi-
tion, as in transportation route selection or urban renewal.
The source of this information is the appropriate assessor's
office.

Frontage and Area. These are dimensional character-
istics of the land parcel and are important in land use
planning and lower order plans such as parking, accident
prevention, recreation, urban renewal and housing planning.
This information is available in the assessor's office.

Easements. Easement information illuminates any
encumbrances on the land parcel which may restrict develop-
ment. In assumes analytic importance in the case of land
acquisition. This information is kept by the utility compan-
ies holding the easements and is recorded in deed books.

Landmark. This information describes architecturally,
historically and culturally significant items about the
parcel and its use is mostly descriptive. It assumes analytic
importance when its preservation is threatened. The source
of this information is a field survey.

Number of parking spaces. It is a matter of indifference
whether this information is coded to land data or structural
data but it is an important consideration in most types
of automotive transportation studies. The source of this
information is a field survey.

Assessed value of land and improvements. Although
assessed valuation is notorious for its failure to be
equitable from place to place, it may be the only readily
available mechanism for a first approximation of possible
purchase price. Its source is the appropriate assessor's
office.

Real Estate Tax Revenue. This is a worthwhile bit of
information particularly when compared to some dollar
measure of municipal services consumed by the parcel, so as
to determine whether a particular land parcel is a revenue

producer or revenue consumer in a community. Its source is
the local assessor's office.

Sale price and sale data. This information is
probably more reliable as an indicator of worth than assessed
value is, but it may be difficult to obtain. One way of
estimating sale price is to count the tax stamps filed with
the deed and multiply by the appropriate converted tax rate.
As with all the valuations mentioned, its use is primarily
descriptive except perhaps when purchase is contemplated.

Summary. The land data portion of the matrix shows
some very significant trends. Land use and landmark data
are important over nearly the whole range of studies listed.
Zoning, dimensional and valuation characteristics are
important to a somewhat lesser extent. The remainder of
the data assume specialized importance depending upon the
planning undertaken.

By plan, as might be expected, land use planning
requires use of nearly all the land data. Recreation
planning, major thoroughfare planning and urban renewal
planning require like amounts of land data, but only over
the parcels directly affected.

Street Data

Intersection . Whether or not a parcel is an inter-
section classifies the subsequently listed data bits. The
source of this information is base maps and a field check.

Length of segment, right-of-way width, and pavement
width. These dimensional characteristics are analogous to
those of a non-street land parcel and are used in all the
listed types of transportation plans. The source of this
information is base maps and a field check.

Functional class. This is a convenient division of
the level of service provided by the street system — express-
way, major arterial, collector, local - and is used for its
descriptive characteristics over a wide range of plans. In

that such classifications imply a wide range of controls on
adjacent development regarding access, its use in analytic.
The source of this information is base maps and field check.

Structural composition and percent grade. These are
analytical information items used in most types of trans-
portation planning. The source of these data is the
appropriate engineering agency.

Average daily traffic and peak hour traffic. These
are analytic data used in most types of transportation
planning. The source of this data is a field survey.

Number of accidents. This statistic is gathered over
some appropriate time interval and is used in all the listed
types of transportation planning to analyze the efficiency
of traffic movement. It also can be used as a descriptor
in other plans such as urban renewal and environmental health
planning. The source of this information is police records.

Curb parking. These are analytic data used in all types
of transportation studies. Their source is a field survey.

Sidewalks and street lights. These are mainly descrip-
tive data except in accident prevention planning." Their
descriptive characteristics extend beyond the types of
transportation planning to such plans as urban renewal and
land use. The source of these data is the appropriate
engineering agency and a field check.

Number of lanes and loading zone. These are further
analytic data items used in automotive transportation studies.
Their source is base maps, the appropriate engineering agency
or a field survey.

Transit route and school route. These are descriptive
data that become analytic because of the number of things
that each implies. Their sources are field surveys and
transit companies or school boards as appropriate. This
information is rather widely used over the types of studies
listed.

Access cont.ro I . This information is used analytically
in all the transportation plans listed. Its source is a
tie Id survey.

Condition . This information is used analytically in
the transportation plans and descriptively in some others
such as environmental health and urhan renewal. Its source
is a field survey.

Utilities sharing right of way. This information is
used analytically in land use planning and accident prevention
planning. It can be used descriptively for other plans if
the situation warrents it. Its source is the appropriate
engineering agency and utility companies.

Summary . The street data portion of the matrix shows
the following trends. The functional classification of a
street segment is useful information over a wide range of
planning studies. Transit route, school route and accident
data similarly have an impact outside of pure transportation
studies .

Just as the land data items were most exhaustively
used in land use planning, so too the street data items
are used in the various types of automotive transportation
planning. Almost all of this use is analytic in nature.

Structural Data

Year built and type of construction. These are descrip-
tive data in environmental health planning, and analytic
data for those particular structures considered in plans
such as urban renewal, housing, school and recreational
planning. They are generally available from the appropriate
assessor's office and checked in the field.

Building condition. This information is analytic in
use for all the plans enumerated above as well as higher
order plans such as comprehensive and land use plans. The
source of this information is the field survey.

Number of floors, total floor area and first, floor
area . These information items measure intensity of land
use and they are analytic in lower order plans such as
urban renewal .and tend to he descriptive in higher order
plan.'j such as environmental health. This information is all
gathered by field survey.

Number and type of building code violations . Th i s
information is all analytic and would be used in the low
order small area plans, such as housing plans and environ-
mental health plans. Its source is the appropriate
engineering office.

Rehabilitation cost. This is an estimated cost of
repairs necessary to bring the subject building up to a
condition requiring only normal maintenance. Lt is used
analytically in lower order plans and descriptively in higher
order plans. It is grossly estimated during a field survey.

Police calls and fire calls. These data are used
almost always descriptively except in environmental health
planning or when paired with the cost of other municipal
services and compared to real estate tax revenue. In the
latter instance some estimate can be made of the cost/income
ratio generated by a particular area. Their sources are
the appropriate departments.

Utility service. These data are gathered for all
utilities to be used analytically in lower order plans and
descriptively in higher order plans. Their sources are the
appropriate utility companies and a field check.

Summary . The structure data portion of the matrix
shows the following trends. Building condition data are
used analytically over a wide range of planning processes.
Intensity of use measurements, rehabilitation costs and
utility service tend to be used analytically in lower order
plans and descriptively in higher order plans. Police and
fire call data tend to be used almost entirely in a

descriptive sense as symptomatic of a wide range of urban
ills.

Considering the matrix by plan, low order plans deal
intensively with these data in an analytic sense. The school
buildings might be so investigated in a school plan, for
example. Environmental health planning shows about an equal
mix of descriptive and analytic use of the data. High order
plans tend to deal with the data almost entirely in a
descriptive sense.

Dwelling Unit Data

Per cent vacant. For each dwelling unit, data of this
type is commonly used descriptively in land use planning
and environmental health planning. It is used analytically
Ln urban renewal planning and housing planning. Tts source
is a field survey or the United States decennial census in
aggregated form.

Residents by sex and age groups. This is another
primary set of information quite analogous to land use data
in its universality of use. Probably the best source of
these data is the U.S. decennial census, updated as necessary
for intercensal years. This is particularly true after
1970 when some of these data can be disclosed by the Census
bureau at the level of the block without violating the
Bureau's rules of confidentiality. For smaller areas or
Less aggregated information, a field survey is necessary.

Family income. This is a widely used descriptive
statistic that is available from the Census Bureau in
large aggregation. As a measure of socio-economic class it
is used analytically in environmental health planning,
urban renewal and housing planning. For small areas, the
source of this information is a field survey.

Family education and occupation. These are two
descriptive statistics widely used as indicators of socio-
economic status. They are available from the Census Brueau
in large aggregation or from a field survey as necessary.

Vehicles owned, place of work and means of transporta-
tion to work. These statistics are used descriptively when
available and analytically in automotive transportation
planning, major thoroughfare planning, parking planning and
mass transit planning. They are available in large aggrega-
tion from the Census Bureau or from a field survey in more
detail. The field survey would probably include a search
of vehicle registration records and employer records.

Welfare payment. This information is used descrip-
tively in land use and population studies and analytically in
environmental health planning and urban renewal planning.
The source of this information is the appropriate welfare
agency .

Number and types of communicable diseases. This
information is used descriptively in population planning and
housing planning and analytically in environmental health
planning and urban renewal. Its source is the appropriate
board of health.

Rent. This information is used descriptively in high
order pLans and analytically in lower order plans such as
urban renewal and housing planning. It is available from
the Census Bureau in aggregated form or must be gathered in
a field survey.

Summary. The dwelling unit portion of the matrix
discloses the following trends. The data are very strongly
descriptive overall. This is to be expected as changes in
the population are not plannable in the aggregate. The
data tend to analysis in the lower order plans when they
are used to establish housing classes, socio-economic status,
and when the population consumes public services such as
health, welfare, public housing and schools. The class of
data regarding vehicle ownership and the work trip is
strongly analytic in transportation plans.

Considering the matrix by plan, nearly every plan
makes analytic use of the matrix entries. Population

studies, environmental health planning and housing planning
use the data most intensively.

Possible users of these types of data are strongly
encouraged to investigate the information services available
from the Census Brueau (Siegelman, 1971; United States
Bureau of the Census, Census Use Study, 1970-71, and 1970
Census Users' Guide, 1970).

Non- Dwelling Unit Data

Peak shift employees, number of employees, and
optimum total unemployment. These measures of employment
are all analytic when used. The first is an important
consideration in all types of transportation planning and is
a subset of the second. The third gives some measure of
possible economic expansion under favorable conditions.
The sources of this information include the appropriate
agency administering the unemployment insurance act and a
field survey of employers.

Major product groups. This information is used
analytically in comprehensive, land use and economic base
planning. Its source is the field survey.

Per cent sales outside the area and the remainder of
the information in the table. This information is included
for completeness and it is all used analytically in one type
of economic base planning (Tiebout, 1962). Its source is a
field survey of employers.

Summary. The non-dwelling unit portion of the matrix
is entirely analytical in nature. Such descriptors of
building condition, etc. that might be desirable have
already been considered in the structural data portion of
the matrix. There remain then just two classes of data,
employment statistics and sales statistics. The former are
used in transportation plans and, with the latter, in
economic base plans.

Some Concepts of Sampling
In the previous section, the source of much of the
data used in urban planning was a field survey. This
procedure is very expensive and time consuming when data
must be gathered for each individual, or each structure, or
each dwelling unit over a widespread area.

An alternative to gathering data for each individual,
structure, dwelling unit, etc. is to sample. Some defini-
tions are in order here.

A "population" is defined as the totality of all
possible values (measurements or counts) or a particular
characteristic. This characteristic could be a person, a
structure or a dwelling unit or it could be a person's
age, a structure's condition or the number of bedrooms in a
dwelling unit. Thus, populations exist within populations.

Populations which may be considered for analysis
should be selected with great care and defined explicitly
so that no ambiguity will arise as to the inclusion or exclu-
sion of a given element. A "sample" is a portion of the
population selected according to some rules. The sample
characteristics are then used to infer the population
characteristics .

In some cases, the population may be constrained in a
manner such as to make sampling necessary for any measurement
at all. The population could have an infinite number of
elements, as in the classic coin toss, and total enumeration
of these elements is impossible. The population member
could be destroyed in measurement and thus make sampling
necessary. Or the population could be inaccessible, no
longer in existance or unobservable .

In urban planning, however, one is more likely to
encounter populations which can be totally enumerated.
Why, then, should the use of sampling be considered?

A sample in which only a portion of the entire popula-
tion is examined is usually substantially less expensive

than a total enumeration. This is true despite the added
cost of sample design and analysis. Secondly, a sample
will usually provide information faster than a total
enumeration. This results from two considerations, the
actual time required to survey the sample vis a vis the
total population, as well as the lesser time of editing,
coding, tabulating and analyzing sample data rather than
population data. Another reason to consider sampling instead
of total enumeration is that greater accuracy may be achieved,
This may be surprising in view of the fact that sampling
will introduce another source of error, sampling errors,
about which more will be said later. But this error intro-
duction can be more than countertended by stricter controls
on interviewing, editing, coding and tabulating the data.
The imposition of these stricter controls is feasible
because the sampling is simply a smaller scale undertaking
than a total enumeration. These stricter controls are almost
all tied to personnel actions and typically arise from being
able to hire a smaller but better qualified staff within
available resources. The fact that qualified staffers may
be in short supply and incur a premium cost simply reinforces
this tendency.

Lastly, if all else remains constant, such as time,
money and staff, sampling can provide more detailed and
intensive information about a population than a total
enumeration.

In summary, accuracy, speed and economy are the chief
characteristics of data obtained by sampling if and only
if the sampling procedure is carried out according to the
theories of probability and statistics. These theories are
applicable only with difficulty when the population size
is very small. Also the small sized population obviates
many of the problems associated with total enumeration.
Accordingly, a total enumeration is more advantageous than
sampling when the population is small. in urban planning,

for instance, sampled characteristics inferred to the
population of city dwelling units may illuminate general
areas of substandard housing. But to decide the fate of
each dwelling unit in a smaller urban renewal area would
require a total enumeration of those characteristics of
substandardness , particularly if each dwelling unit were a
single detached house making it a population of one.

Total enumeration in urban planning also has some
secondary cooptive effects which may be desirable. Public
acceptance, compliance, response and support may be more
readily forthcoming in the circumstance of total enumeration.

Sampling is not the unguided substitution of a portion
of the population for the whole. Rather, the size of the
sample required, the manner of drawing it, the measurement
of sample characteristics and the inferences which can be
made about equivalent population characteristics, and the
errors and confidence limits on this information are all
based on the rigorous application of the laws of probability
and statistics.

From a conceptual standpoint, sample design is based
on two considerations, size and selection.

Sample Size

Sample size is based upon the variance of the sample
(and, by inference, the variance of the population) and not
upon the size of the population. If the population were
completely homogeneous, then the characteristics of that
population could be measured with a sample of one. If the
population were completely heterogeneous, then the character-
istics of that population could only be determined by a
total enumeration.

In reality, of course, most populations are a mix
of homogeneity and heterogeneity over different character-
istics. In practice, the sample size is usually determined
by entering the appropriate equations with a desired variance.

If, for a desired variance, the sample size derived is
feasible in terms of time, economy, and personnel and
equipment necessary to execute it, it is utilized. The
sensitivity of variance to size changes is examined and
some judgement applied to the results.

The variance necessary to achieve the measurement
objectives of the sample is estimated. It is estimated
based upon the results of prior similar studies, or in some
cases, the results of a pilot survey. Another common pro-
cedure is to collect a sample of some stated size, analyze
the data, and if the objectives of the survey are not met,
to increase the size of the sample by adding to it. This
assumes that the sampling procedure is replicable and that
the characteristics measured are not time dependent over
the course of the procedure.

Sample Selection

Sample selection is a term describing the method of
choosing the sampled elements from the total population.
It takes various forms.

Simple Random Sample. This is the most basic and
least complicated selection procedure. It requires three
conditions; that the population to be sampled be clearly
defined, that each element in this population be uniquely
identified, and that the population elements are statistic-
ally independent. Given these three conditions, a necessary
variance can be estimated, a sample size determined, that
sample be randomly drawn from the total of the uniquely
identified population elements, the characteristics of the
sample measured, and these measurements inferred to the
population as a whole.

The procedure of random drawing is accomplished by
numbering each of the uniquely identified population
elements and then drawing the sample, by number, using a
table of random numbers.

Stratified Simple Random Sample. Sometimes the popula-
tion considered is already classified according to some
principle significant to the projected analysis. Examples
may be sex and age of human beings, buildings by age,
neighborhoods by size, families by automobile ownership, etc,
If the uniquely identified population elements can be
assembled into strata homogeneous with respect to some known
characteristic, simple random samples can be drawn from
within the stratum and the resulting variance can be then
considered in two parts - that resulting from sampling
within the stratum and that between strata. If the
stratification is indeed significant to the analysis,
moderate variance reductions can be expected.

There are several types of stratified simple random
sampling. It may be desirable to vary the simple random
samp] e size from stratum to stratum, or, conversely, to hold
the simple random sample size constant. It may also be
desirable to allocate parts of the sample size to various
strata in proportion to the anticipated variance in each
stratum. This is called optimum allocation.

Systematic Sample and Stratified Systematic Sample.
A more practical selection method may be substituted for the
random selection described in the two methods above. This
is calLed systematic sampling or stratified systematic
sampling as appropriate and is obtained by determining the
overall sampling fraction or the various strata sampling
fractions. If this fraction is 1/100 then 100 is the
selection interval. A random start is established, say 37
and the sample selected is then elements 37, 137, 237, 337,
etc. This method obviates the administrative complications
that arise from using a table of random numbers to select
every element, except, of course, the first element.

Systematic selection is a replacement for random
selection, and, assuming no periodicity or linear trends in
the population characteristics, may be freely used in
either simple sampling or stratified sampling.

Cluster Sampling. Homogeneity within strata has been
described as a tool to reduce variance. Heterogeneity can
be used also in the design of a sample. If it is suspected
that, for the purposes of a particular survey, groups of
population elements can be formed having the population
characteristics essentially the same as those identified
in random or systematic sampling, then the physical or
analytical availability of these groups may make them
economically preferrable to a random or systematic sample.
This is called cluster sampling. The cluster basis can be
analytic but is most often physical such as school rooms or
city blocks. Clusters can be nested within clusters which
are, in turn, within clusters. This is called multistage
cluster sampling. Area sampling is a special form of
multistage cluster sampling where the clusters are successive
geographic units. Cluster sampling can be used with simple
random or systematic sampling and stratefied sampling to
create complex sample designs.

Error

The many types of error that enter a survey can be
broadly classified into sampling errors and non-sampling
errors. Non-sampling errors are those which would occur
whether a sample is collected or a total enumeration made.
An example would be trying to evaluate some characteristic
of the population as a whole via a telephone interview.
Obviously people who do not subscribe to telephone service
would be ommitted. Further, this ommission would occur
regardless of the method of survey; i.e., sample or total
enumeration .

Sampling errors arise out of the general failure of
the sample design or a lack of randomness where necessary.

Deming (1950) provides a classic list of sampling
and non-sampling errors. He terms the latter procedural
biases. Some of these include the failure of the

questionnaire, the failure of the method of canvass, bias
arising from non-response or late returns, bias arising
from the interviewer, careless field procedure, and careless
editing, coding and interpretation of the results.

Deming ' s illustration of the triangular relationship
between non-sampling errors and sampling errors is shown in
Figure III-3. The conceptual use of this figure is most
helpful in determining the proper allocation of resources
to the sampling technique.

In some types of simple industrial inspection, non-
sampling errors may be relatively small and resources should
lie dedicated to the reduction of sampling error. In much
of the survey work associated with urban planning, the
converse is probably true.

Accordingly, it is not uncommon for urban planning
sampling procedure to incorporate a preliminary test of the
survey, usually called a pilot study. This will serve to
check the design parameters such as sample size, sample
selection, procedural bias, interviewer effects and
variance .

Accuracy and Precision
Precision measures sampling error. Accuracy measures
total error, i.e., both sampling and non-sampling error.
A precise design has a small sampling error and an accurate
design has a small non-sampling error as well. In Figure
III-4, design A is typical of say, a poorly designed mail
questionnaire of a sample too small to measure a character-
istic of the population. In design B, the sample size may
have been expanded and stratified and the questionnaire left
unchanged. In design C, the original sample design remained
the same, but the questionnaire was redesigned to remove
bias, nonresponses were pursued, and editing and coding
procedures were strengthened. Design D, of course, reduces
both the sampling and non-sampling errors.

SAMPLING ERROR

ABC represents some given error representation with RMSE = AB
RMSE = AD (a decrease in root mean square error) can be
achieved by :

I an increase in sampling error if the concurrent decrease
in non-sampling error is great enough (AEF)j

2. an increase in non-sampling error if the concurrent decrease
in sampling error is great enough (AGH)>

3. or, of course, a decrease in both types of error (AKJ).

Figure III-3
The Relationship Eetween Sampling and Non- samp ling Error'

100

neither precise
nor accurate

precise , but
not accurate

DESIGN B

accurate , but
not precise

DESIGN C

both precise
and accurate

DESIGN D

Figure III-4
The Relationship Between Accuracy and Precision

101

Urban Information Systems

As demonstrated by the previous sections of this work,
the collection and use of urban information is complex, time
consuming and expensive. One is tempted to serach for short
cuts in the hope of possibly finding the Holy Grail, the
information already collected and available for planning.

Every urban area has an urban information system.
The complexity of these systems ranges from the very simple
to the most sophisticated. The simple systems are typically
found in the files of municipal service agencies of small
towns. Examples are a list of dwelling units in a mail
route, the fire chief's knowledge of fire main locations, a
list of voters, familial information collected with school
enrollment and church affiliation.

At the other extreme, urban information systems
conceptually exist with complex models and data manipulations
which measure real time changes in the urban area and take
administrative action on these changes. An example might
be the occurance of the relocating of a family in town.
Here the information system might gather demographic data
about the family, match the family to the new rented or
owned parcel of land and dwelling unit, establish utility
service and monitor consumption and bill, assign the children
to schools and measure their impact on the school program,
measure the new transportation service demands and their
impact on the transportation system, and a whole host of
other planning and administrative decisions. Perhaps the
relocation of this family will automatically program the
construction of a new elementary classroom, the hiring of
an additional teacher, the reallocation of children to
classes, and the resultant changes in the tax structure.

The planner is faced with two related problems in
urban information. One is to search the already existing
system, whether simple or sophisticated, for his data needs.

102

The related problem is to consider the need for a system
more sophisticated than that in existence. Some of the
concepts which must be considered in upgrading the system's
level of sophistication are addressed here to conclude this
subject of the inventory phase of the urban planning process.
Much of the information on this subject which follows was
compiled from Maxman (1968).

Information Hierarchy
The conceptual formulation of an information theory
has resulted in identifying a three step hierarchy of
information (Horwood, 1964). The first stage of informa-
tion is known as raw data and it consists of numbers, symbols,
lists, etc., generally on paper and not yet organized into
a machine record. When this information is machine proces-
sable, it is known as banked data, the second stage of the
hierarchy. When this banked data is able to be manipulated
such as in updating, searching and retrieval operations it
is termed a data library.

Levels of System Sophistication
There are likewise three general levels of system
sophistication. The first and most basic only tabulates
data. The second level will contain certain specialized
models which may, for instance, compare two parameters to
form a ratio which may be considered valuable. The highest
level of system sophistication describes that system that
can both monitor and simulate the real world (Hamilton, 1964).

System Development
The choices of levels of system sophistication and
hierarchy of information to be incorporated into an urban
information system are based upon a number of criteria.
Some of these are: the purpose of the information, the
essentiality of the information, the cost of the information,

103

the maintainability of the information, the ease of
reduction and aggregation of the information, the applic-
ability of the information to the users' end needs, the
available hardware and software, and the political climate
surrounding the establishment of the system (Hamilton, 1964).

These criteria are actually breakdowns of two essential
considerations, the modules of collection and the methods
of aggregation. In urban planning, the most commonly used
module of collection is the land parcel. This makes good
sense as urban studies are generally defined in place over
the passage of time and it is the basic premise of urban
planning that the physical arrangement of land uses has
far reaching social and economic implications. Returning
to Figure III-2, the land parcel provides information
according to the logic diagrammed in Figure III-5. Thus,
demographic, social and economic data are tied to the land
parcel .

Since urban studies are located in space, the land
parcel is also most valuable as a means of aggregation.
With proper coding and programming, land parcels can be
logically aggregated into blocks, tracts, zones, areas,
and the political city as a whole. To maintain flexibility
in this aggregation, the land parcel should be the lowest
level of aggregation collected. Unfortunately, the informa-
tion used in urban planning is sometimes private in nature
and safeguards must be established against unauthorized
disclosure of this information. Thus, the decennial census
data is only published in aggregation sufficient to mask
individual identification and its use is severely constrained
in this respect. As a general rule, any data collected as
an investment for future use would be in the least aggre-
gated form possible. This principle differs from the highly
utilitarian guidelines previously set forth for data
collection for a specific planning process. For a specific
process, the end use is known and it is more economical to

104

LAND
INFORMATION

STREET

YES

STREET
INFORMATION

'ENDX

DWELLING UNIT
INFORMATION

'END

YES

STRUCTURE

YES

DWELLING UNIT

STRUCTURAL \
INFORMATION J

'NON-DWELLING UNIT>
INFORMATION

'ENDN

'END

Figure III-5
Logic Diagram for Coding Information to Land Parcel

105

use the highest aggregation of data feasible for two reasons;
it is generally easier to obtain, and it facilitates analysis
and forecasting in the aggregate with attendant error
reduction. But, if the end use of the data is not known,
any aggregation is a constraint that may render the data
useless .

As an example, consider a data item measuring popula-
tion. Population per traffic zone is highly aggregated
and probably useful enough for macro transportation plans.
It would be unwise, however, to collect population data in
this aggregation for an urban information system. It would
not disclose, for instance, the numbers and ages of
children in a school district should that information be
desired at a later date. Accordingly, population informa-
tion should probably be collected by age and sex for each
dwelling unit. Then any information necessary could be
extracted from the system in any aggregation deemed
appropriate. It is this need for future flexibility that
makes the design of an urban information system so complex.

Summary
Urban information systems are expensive undertakings
which accrue benefits only in the future. As such they
comprise very real investments and must be judged as such.
In these times, when so many public agencies and municipal
authorities have great difficulty just meeting their operating
expenses, the investment in an urban information system is
difficult to justify. When it does occur, however, it
signals a very real committment by that agency or authority
to the philosophy of a continuing planning process.

Notes
1. After W. E. Deming, Some Theory of Sampling, p. 129.

106

CHAPTER IV
ANALYSIS

In the ideal case of the conceptual model of planning
activity, the analysis phase is something of a watershed.
The goals and objectives of the client constituency have
been established and endorsed by all concerned. The planning
staff is organized and funded and is a viable entity. The
drudgery of data collection is over and the planner now has
everything at his disposal to plan. He has entered his
element .

The rub is that in all too many cases, this element
is unfriendly if not openly hostile. Instead of rigorous
theory to guide him, he finds vague hypotheses. In the
place of certainty he finds conjecture. Little seems
universal, much is unique. Worse, some things claimed sure
seem doubtful .

That this situation may be typical of a new discipline
such as urban planning offers little consolation. The
planner must face the prospect of evolving nearly ad hoc
theories of urban behavior before he can begin to apply
them. However he does have an arsenal of potent tools with
which to work.

This chapter investigates some of those tools within
the framework of the analysis phase of the planning process.
Analysis is defined as the separating or breaking up of the
whole into its parts with an examination of these parts
to find out their nature, proportion, function and inter-
relationship. It implies the reverse, synthesis, as well.
Analysis can and does occur with data at any point in time
or over time. Historic data can be analyzed. Contemporary

107

data can be analyzed and future data can be analyzed. The
only distinction made in this work is that the actual fore-
casting of future data will be treated in the next chapter
because, in practice, it follows at least the analysis of
contemporary data.

Harris (1966) has correctly pointed out that urban
planning analyses tend to follow the classical scientific
method; induction, generalization, deduction, testing.
While all these elements may not be present in a single
plan, the distinction has its use.

Confronted with an array of data, the planner arranges
the array into patterns. This pattern arrangement may come
about as a result of intuitive feeling on the part of the
planner, or as a result of his prior experience. From these
patterns he generalizes their structural, spatial, temporal
and functional relationships. These relationships may be
based on a hypothesis of cause and effect, probability, or
simply correlation. The planner analyzes from the specific
conditions presented by the data to some generalities
regarding their behavior. He thus induces theory. This
theory is then applied to other sets of data, perhaps
historical, perhaps from another planning effort, or perhaps
from his own contemporary data (a subset not considered in
the original induction). The behavior of the test data is
deduced and then matched against actual observation. If
the deduced behavior and the observed behavior are different,
the theory must then be modified. If these behaviors are
the same, the theory is not disproved and then used to
describe the behavior of forecasted data.

As Harris notes, this distinction between induction
and deduction is quite commonly blurred. Usually, induction
begins with some preconception of theory. This preconception
tends to identify the behavior patterns likely to occur.
Also, when the deduced and observed behavior patterns differ,
the planner returns to an inductive process to try to
reformulate a theory.

108

The fact that these preconceptions occur is not
necessarily alarming. Based upon experience or insight,
they may suggest theory that indeed proves to be valid.
Further, these preconceptions are the only way to break
the otherwise circular argument advanced in this work that
one must design his analysis to see what data are needed,
hut one must investigate data patterns to design a proper
analysis .

Implicit in analysis is a normative/substantive
comparison. The analysis may demonstrate a cause for each
effect, a probable cause for each effect or merely a
correlation of effects or patterns. Some judgement needs
to be made in any case as to the desirability of these
effects. This judgement is facilitated by a comparison of
that which is, with that which should be; or, for the future,
that which probably will be, with that which probahly should
he. The philosophy and mechanics of these comparisons for
design evaluation are discussed in Chapter VII, but this
phase of the planning process and those following are rife
with evaluative judgements and some aspects of this need
be opened here.

Procedurally, the planner must take the observed
contemporary data patterns, perhaps generalized into theory,
and compare them to some normative data patterns or theory.
This comparison of contemporary patterns to contemporary
standards yields contemporary excesses, deficiencies, faults
or aberrations which may then be deemed worthy to be met
by short range corrective plans. The same holds true for
selected times in the future. Key variables are forecasted,
behavior patterns deduced, and these patterns are compared
to forecasted future standards. At each temporal stage in
the analysis, of course, previously injected plans have their
effects. Plans are then conceived to shape and serve the
deduced patterns.

109

There remains the question of the source of these
standards. First and foremost they are based on the goals
and objectives of the client constituency. The inter-
pretation and refinement of these goals and objectives for
a specific planning purpose has already been made in the
organization phase of the process. It remains for the
planner, with the advice and consent of the committees
structured in the organization phase, to further refine
these planning objectives into planning factors.

These planning factors are discrete, measureable
criteria inferred from the objectives of the plan. As an
example, suppose that "to provide for adequate housing for
all residents" was a plan objective. It might be profession-
ally inferred that minimum occupancy standards should
include a measure of floor space per occupant. This planning
factor may he then refined to mean 2 50 square feet today,
2 75 square feet five years from now, 300 square feet ten
years from now, and so forth.

A collection of these planning factors describes a
level of service of a particular entity. The planning
design effort then centers around correcting contemporary
deficient levels of service, forecasting future standard
levels of service and then meeting these future levels in
future plans.

The Use of Models

All the concepts, preconcepts , theories, patterns,
and levels of service so far referred to can be generically
called models. These models are the tools of planning
analysis.

Lowry (1965) has noted that models can be classified
as to their function. Descriptive models imitate some
feature of the real world as it is observed. An urban
descriptive model could possibly reduce the complex structure
of a city to a set of relationships both coherent and

110

rigorous. Such a model would show the interaction of the
social, economic, political and physical environments of
the city. But, by definition, such models will not help
with information about the future or aid in the evaluation
of alternatives.

If one adds to a descriptive model the notions of
process and causality, the result is a predictive model.
The planner generally begins with a desired output and tries
to relate it to the available input. The induction-
deduction process is followed with the result that future
input (plans and resources) is acted upon by future relation-
ships (theory) yielding future output (the meeting of fore-
casted levels of service).

If the planner has more than one set of future inputs,
as is likely to be the case, and wishes to test each set
of future outputs seeking the most utile, he may devise
a planning model. This is the most complex model in the
Lowry scheme and the process includes the specification of
alternatives, the prediction of the consequences of each
alternative, and the rating/ranking of these consequences
as to how well they fulfill specified goal statements.

The Strategy and Tactics of Modeling
Lowry' s classification suggests that there may exist
a strategy of modeling. This strategy can be phrased as
"employing appropriate techniques with a sense of style."
There are two key concepts. Appropriateness suggests that
which is right for the purpose and a proper fit. Each
modeling effort must then be tied to a purpose, and fit
both the specific purpose and auxiliary conditions such as
quality of data and resources available. When any of these
conditions is emphasized more or less than the others,
dysfunction occurs. Examples of dysfunction include a
modeling effort too simple by assumption for the quality of
data available; the converse; too little or too much relative

Ill

allocation of resources to the data collection and the
modeling effort; and the generation of a predictive model
based upon data which can only be poorly forecasted.

A sense of style refers to the artfullness of applica-
tion. II is very closely tied to design and creativity and
is the specific or characteristic manner of expression,
execution and construction of the model. A sense of style,
like appropriateness, only gains its meaning in application.

Contributing to this modeling strategy is a collection
of tactics. One set of these tactics is that group of
writings which deal with the choice between dichotomous
facets of modeling. Harris (1967) offers a list of these
facets which includes the distinctions between models that
are: descriptive versus analytic, holistic versus partial,
macro versus micro, and static versus dynamic.

The descriptive versus analytic distinction is the
same as that between inductive and deductive reasoning.
This has already been explored and it is only necessary to
reiterate that each has its use in urban planning.

The holistic versus partial distinction is most
manifest in the separation of urban planning practice and
urban planning research. The practitioner is forced to take
as holistic a view as possible whereas the researcher can
afford the luxury of holding the balance of the urban
environment constant while he investigates but one aspect
of it. The distinction blurs as holistic views come to be
aggregations of partial views. The substantive scope axis
of the conceptual model of planning activity was devised
to define the hierarchy of various types of urban plans.
The distinctions along that axis came closest to mirroring
the distinctions among various degrees of holistic and
partial analyses.

Harris holds that the macro versus micro distinction
centers around the level of aggregation concept. This was
first addressed in the inventory phase of the planning

112

process where it was noted that data should be collected
on as disaggregated a basis as possible. The basis of this
tactical distinction is, however, that most of the variables
in urban planning only gain statistical meaning in aggrega-
tion. Thus we are interested in total street utilization,
park space per neighborhood, sales in the CBD, school age
population, etc., but these impacts are cumulative over
discrete individuals, families, businesses and institutions.
Micro analyses are often necessary to assess these individual
impacts even though a macro analysis may show the cumulative
effect of some change.

The static versus dynamic distinction is largely
procedural. There is no philosophic difficulty in recogniz-
ing that urban systems are dynamic and should be so modeled.
The difficulty is, of course, a computational one. For
ease of conceptualization and manipulation, urban models
are generally structured in static equilibrium. An
approximation to dynamics is sometimes made through recur-
sive manipulation.

Another class of tactics associated with model building
deals with the relative propagation of error through possible
model forms. Alonso (1968) suggests that the error pro-
pagated and amplified by "long chains of argument" may be
so great as to obviate the benefit of these complex models.
In this case, the aggregation or complementary use of
simpler models may yield better results. As an extension of
the strategy of appropriateness, poor quality data is
probably best used in simple models. Further, error cumulates
differently with different mathematical techniques. Alonso
demonstrates that addition is the least dangerous of the
mathematical operations. If one cannot add, multiplication
or division are preferable to subtraction or raising
variables to powers.

Yet another class of modeling tactics are largely
situational in context. Bolan (1970) clearly rejects the

113

notion that models which are more clever, more complex, and
which contain more facts are per eg necessarily superior
Lo Lhose with less such Ingredients. He argues that the
long range master planning predisposition of planners may
make them too Utopian in method and philosophy to model short
range problems. Models must take into consideration
political realities as well as technical bases. The power
and capacity of the planning agency, the government as a
whole, and the political process must be a part of the
modeling effort. Fact should be distinguished from value
judgments and further, there is a question of value to
whom. Effects need be disaggregated and the diversity of
value existent in society should be modeled, lest the
planning decisions resulting therefrom force homogeneity
where it is neither warranted nor wanted. Further, models
should have relevant and real meaning to the client constitu-
ency in their planning situation. Analyses should answer
questions that are utile, not questions that have not been
asked .

An Example

That modeling should be at least as much art as science
is apparent. Whether it be called creative technology or
technologic creativity is a matter of indifference as long
as both elements are present. The process occurs in the
analysis phase of the conceptual model of planning activity.

Consider Figure IV-1. Within the model this figure
shows the organization, inventory and analysis of that
planning effort which is defined along the substantive scope
axis as statewide (origin) to state parks (destinations).
Illustrated are two analytical methods, typical of the many
that could be conceived based upon the same organization
and inventory.

Schulman (1964) designed a model of statewide state
park recreational travel based upon the gravity model .

114

1 i \ i

■PROCEDURAL

SCOPE

52 |

< UJ

s-l

Vj
<J

CD
<X

0)
4J

a
u
a

C
o

115

T. . = T.

R.
J

j-i ^lM

where

T.. = the number of automobile trips from residential

area j to recreational area i,
T. = the total number of automobile trips attracted
to recreational area i from all residential
areas ,
D. . = the road distance in miles between residential
area i and recreational area j ,
and R. = the number of recreational trips to all recrea-
tional areas generated from residential area j.
Matthias (1967), working with a similar problem,
designed two models, one for travel to a state park when
there was no intervening state park, and one for travel
when an intervention occurred.
For the closest park,

Y = 338e"0,379 x'

and for an intervening park,

Y - 129e-°-488 x>

where :

Y = annual trips from all origins per 1000 population,
and X = distance to the recreational area in question in
miles from the population centroids.

Both the Schulman gravity model and Matthias logarithmic
model are inductive. Schulman apparently had a strong per-
conception that his data would fit a version of the well

116

known gravity model. Matthias1 work may have been more
inductive in that the logarithmic form evolved from the
data patterns. Both researchers then proposed using their
models in a deductive way to forecast future trip generations.

Neither research was associated with an ongoing plan
(such as to provide transportation service to the recreational
areas) so there was no need to evolve and compare levels of
service. Both Schulman and Matthias investigated the "level
of service," so to speak, provided by already existent models
of this type of behavior and felt that improvements could
be made .

The models are both descriptive and predictive.
Matthias' conceptual basis was that trips will be generated
according to distance from the facility with due account for
intervening opportunities. Schulman' s conceptual basis was
that trips will be generated in proportion to attractiveness
and in inverse proportion to difficulty, resistance or "the
friction of space". Both researchers assumed that historical
patterns will continue which, however self-perpetuating, is
hard to argue against, at least in the near future.

Both models are partial rather than holistic and both
are macro rather than micro. In addition, both models are
static although Schulman's has a wider conceptual use of
equilibrium as it considers origins as well as destinations.

Neither researcher needed to consider the political
environment. If this research were carried out in an applied
situation, this environment would be very strong as has many
times been demonstrated in the siting of major recreational
facilities and their attendant impacts.

Outside of the contextual issue of a plan, it would be
difficult to pass judgement on the adequacy of these models.
It is apparant , however, that they model only a small part
of something bigger. In addition, they are each composed
of parts of smaller concepts which might be more meaningful
if considered separately. The philosophic and procedural

117

problems of "smallness", "bigness" and the feeling that
everything may influence everything else leads quite naturally
to the analysis of the behavior of systems.

The Use of Systems Analysis

General Systems Theory
Every systems analysis paper in the rich field of
the discipline begins with a definition of a system.
Definitions are elusive at times and this is perhaps no
better exemplified than in the attempts made to define
a system. For clarity in definition one usually lists
attributes or else makes some attempt to classify systems.

Generally speaking, a system is a set of related
elements. Beer (1959) has noted that these elements can
be simple and deterministic as in a window catch. They
can be complex and deterministic as in an electronic
computer. The elements can be simple and stochastic as a
set of coin flips. Or they can be complex and stochastic
as in a warehouse inventory system. There is usually
reserved the classification of exceedingly complex stochastic
for such systems as the United States Economy. The exceed-
ingly complex deterministic system set is generally regarded
as empty.

Systems analysis is an interdisciplinary endeavor.
To prevent this endeavor from degenerating into undisciplined
approaches, some integrating structure must be applied to
the analysis. Boulding (1956) suggests that between the
general constructions of pure mathematics and the highly
specialized theories of specific disciplines there exists
a general systems theory. There are two paths to this
theory: an investigation of real world phenomena that them-
selves cross disciplines, and the study of the hierarchy of
systems according to the complexity of their basic
individuals .

118

There are several real world cross disciplinary
phenomena. The birth-survival-death syndrome is one which,
for instance, can be applied to a living organism, an
idea, a communication bit, an element in a queue and many
otherwise unrelated occurrences. Other cross disciplinary
phenomena include behavior, growth, and communication.

The second path to general systems theory could be
the result of the following hierarchy of levels in systems
analysis offered by Boulding. The first level is that of
statics. Some typical systems in this level would consist
of frameworks. Geography is a good example. The second
level is that of simple dynamics. Implied here is regularity
and a clockwork is a good example. The third level of
systems is cybernetic in nature. These are those kept in a
state of homeostasis by which a variable is kept between
two limits and always tending to equilibrium. Blood pressure
is a good example. The fourth level of systems constitutes
those that are open or self-maintaining such as the cell.
This level is usually the limit of theoretical systems
study. The fifth level is genetic-societal in nature. An
example of this is the society of cells in a plant. The
sixth level is that of self-awareness and is characterized
by animals. The seventh level of systems is that of self-
awareness coupled with abstraction and is typified by man.
The eighth level is that of human social organization and
it is the level of the nature and dimension of human value
systems. An understanding of this level would benefit the
discipline of urban planning. The ninth and highest level
of systems is that of transcendence and the systems character-
ized by this level are beyond human experience.

Another hierarchy of levels of systems based on their
degree of automaticity has been offered by Kossiakoff (1960).
The zero order system replaces no human energy and assumes
no control function. Examples are hand tools. The first
order system requires energy but input and control are

119

supplied by man. Examples include bench saws and pneumatic
drills. The second order system uses mechanical power
exclusively but man must start-stop the system. Examples
are radial drills and pipe threading machines . The third
order systems are completely self acting and first genera-
tion automatics. Examples include special manufacturing
machines as for cigarettes, lamp bulbs and bottling. The
fourth order system measures its own performance and corrects
to a standard. Examples are oil refineries, generators and
regulators. The fifth order system automatically solves
problems according to pre-specif ied control equations. An
example is a pre-programmed computer controlled machine.
The sixth order system is that of system solution to complex
formal logic conditions. Examples include telephone
circuits and robots. The seventh order system learns from
its mistakes, attempts different modes of operation as
necessary and improves its techniques. Examples include
any system that learns by experience. The eighth order
system extrapolates from its experience, forms modes of
operation beyond its experience and performs inductive
reasoning. Examples include systems that have intuition.
The ninth order of system can create beyond itself.

Because of the breadth of systems analysis and because
the analysis is compounded by the fact that systems exist
in systems, the search for a general systems theory is
probably futile in terms of the end desired. But the
ancillary effects of this search yield new techniques and
perspectives, the value of which cannot be denied.

So finally we are forced to define systems analysis
by listing its characteristics. Fundamental among these is
the definition of the problem and the systematic examination
of objectives and of the alternative ways of achieving these
objectives. Systems analysis often is iterative in nature,
involving formulation, testing, reformulation, re-testing,
etc. Even if the conclusion of the process is that there

120

is no preferred alternative, the process itself is often of
educational value to the decision maker. The time frame
of the analysis usually extends far into the future and as
such is often fraught with uncertainty. Often there exists
the possibility of catastrophic outcomes and this might
preclude the use of simple expected value models. Sensitivity
analysis and contingency analysis are often better tools.
Systems analysis usually deals with problems within a very
broad context. Straight-forward solutions are the exceptions
in the welter of variables and often simulation by a black
box is required. For this same reason many systems analyses
are neither exhaustive nor entirely quantitative. As
stressed earlier, this does not necessarily negate their
value .

Despite the complexity of some systems, some useful
classifications can be made of systems in terms of their
analytical properties. The first distinction that is
usually made is between natural and man-made systems.
Often clues to behavior of systems can be obtained simply
by this distinction although the distinction may not be
easy to make. Once made, there exists the possibility of
applying such things as the Newtonian Laws or the precepts
of the behavioral sciences as applicable to the system in
question .

There exists an analytical distinction between an
open and a closed system. Open systems exchange materials,
energies or information with their environment. A closed
system operates independently of environment. Some systems
are characterized by their control mechanisms. An open
loop system is one which once activated permits no further
control. A closed loop system permits and possibly requires
control. Feedback may exist in either system but when it
is used for active control it "closes the loop." Yet
another distinction usually made is that between adaptive
and non-adaptive systems. Adaptive systems are those that
possess the ability to react to their environment in such

121

a way that is favorable to the continued operation of the
system.

Urban Systems Analysis
Most long range planning decisions are reached through
the use of the decision maker's judgment and intuition.
The role of systems analysis in this process is the same as
that of English, arithmetic and science. All of these taken
together influence and hopefully sharpen the judgment and
intuition of the decision maker. In almost no cases can the
results of systems analysis be taken as the optimal decision
because of the unquantif iable nature of some of the
variables .

To more clearly define the role of systems analysis
in planning, it would be helpful to define the extremes of
opinion regarding it. At one end of the spectrum there are
those who say that planning is entirely Intuitive and
based only on personal judgment and experience. At the
other extreme are those who deny the role of anything not
measurable in numbers. The usual outcome of either of these
two positions is either a model so simple that it no longer
fairly represents the system, or an analysis so complex that
it is not available until two years after the decision had
to be made. Obviously the correct range of endeavor is
between these two limits.

These two extremes are mirrored in the applications of
systems analysis to urban problems. Moore (1966) notes that
at one extreme there are people who argue that there is a
wide range of problems simply begging for analysis within
the urban sphere. These people maintain that there is a
wealth of methodology even today available that is not being
properly exploited in urbanology. Other people dispair
that when analyses have been carried out they have not been
used for decision making due to institutional and political
constraints .

122

The two positions are reconcilable. Their recon-
ciliation involves defining the characteristics which make
certain problems suitable for the application of systems
analysis. This involves a consideration of such issues
as welfare economics and political institutions, public
goods vis-a-vis private goods, incentives in the operation
of specific systems and the political feasibility of alterna-
tives.

The provision of public goods generally requires the
consideration of multiple objectives. Among these objectives
are to use resources efficiently, to be equitable, to benefit
special groups, and to permit scope for individual initia-
tive. The trade-offs required in making any decision here
are largely subjective in nature and perhaps best left to
the political arena. The very least required of the systems
analyst under these conditions is to specify alternative
outcomes for different criteria. A more worthy project would
be to formulate a clearly superior and universal set of
criteria.

Moore notes that another problem which overlaps
analysis and politics rests with the design of incentives.
Too often such items as rent subsidies and tax preferences
are not self adjusting to market conditions and freeze into
the economy.

Surely the safest problems on which to conduct air
tight analyses are those which are very limited in extent.
It does not take much imagination to realize that these
local optimal solutions are most probably suboptimizations
in the next system and so on ad infinitum. Even with that
in mind we can, and indeed must, suboptimize at higher levels
than the present .

Even so, systems analysis will never reduce urban
planning to an objective process. The substance of such
planning is too subjective; the political process in which
planning must take shape is too subjective; and decisions

123

which must be made about planning are made with bounded
rationality, constrained by such humanist qualities as
politics and ethics, and, on a lower level, by human
frailities such as ignorance and prejudice.

Nonetheless, systems analysis brings to urban planning
some significant benefits. First and foremost, systems
analysis is educative as to both the plan process method-
ology and the plan itself. It ties policy, function,
process, programming and budgeting together in one analysis.
It may disclose wasted resources, clarify issues, reconcile
conflicting or overlapping objectives. It may possibly
introduce a sense of unity to otherwise disparate features
or seemingly unrelated aspects of the plan or planning
process .

In conclusion, systems analysis is not merely the use
of complex and holistic models. Rather, systems analysis
is itself a precedural model of a method of approach to
problems. It involves the specification of objectives,
the systematic search for alternative methods of achieving
these objectives, and a comparison of the results obtained
through the use of each alternative. Models, analytical
methods, and scientific procedures are used, but their
assembly and application are strong functions of intuition
and imagination.

The application of systems analysis to the urban
planning process is direct and obvious. In fact, there is
no major difference between the use of systems analysis in
planning and the planning process as described in this work.
As a planner moves along the procedural scope axis of the
conceptual model of planning activity, he executes a
systems analysis. Objectives are defined, a multidisci-
plinary organization is established, data are collected,
analyses are made and tested, parameters are forecasted,
urban designs are conceived and evaluated, the most

124

optimal is selected according to some rational process,
and the selected plan is implemented. The consummate
planner is a systems analyst.

125

CHAPTER V
FORECASTING

With this step the planner begins the second half of
the planning process. Typically more than half the resources
available to him have been expended, but this should cause
no great concern as it has already been recognized that the
inventory phase is very expensive and time consuming and
this has been taken into account in the study design.

Since plans are concerned with future activities, the
analysis of contemporary data alone does not normally
provide a strong rational base for any but the most remedial
or short range plans. The planner is now forced to manu-
facture or synthesize a future inventory for the develop-
ment of future planning demands. There is a very clear
clement of uncertainty in this formulation. This forced,
synthetic, probabilistic and assumptive "inventory" for the
"analysis" of future planning conditions is called a
"forecast. "

Sometimes the historical inventory already taken
yields data too aged to accurately portray the contempory
conditions. The planner must not only then forecast into
the future, he must also forecast from the past into the
present. This latter process has come to be called
"estimating" and this convention is maintained here.

The techniques of estimating are generally the same
as those of forecasting. Usually, however, some of the
inputs to the estimating procedure are presently known for
certain, thus making estimating less risky than forecasting.
Before considering some of these techniques it is necessary
to examine the general conceptual bases for forecasting.

126

The Forecasting Model
Consider Figure V-l. It represents the forecasting
phase in the conceptual model of planning activity.

Substance

Along the substantive scope axis of the conceptual
model of planning activity, forecasting Ls used in all types
of planning. However because of the risk and difficulty
involved in forecasting the conditions at any point in the
future, only a few key variables are forecast. All other
future conditions are then inferred from these forecasts.

These key variables are characterized by two general
conditions. They are forecastable with some degree of
confidence by some generally accepted and rational technique;
and they are so closely linked to other desired variables,
either by cause or correlation, that the behavior of
these other variables can be inferred from the behavior of
the key variables.

Suppose that the inventory phase of the planning
process yielded the data conceptually shown in Figure V-2.
Some, of the data are current and some are three years old.
Suppose further that the planning process was designed to
provide a plan for five, ten, and fifteen years into the
future. Figure V-2 shows the development of: first, the
estimate of the present condition; second, the five year
forecasts of the key variables; and third, the expansion of
those variables by inference at each of the five year
points of investigation.

The present or past measurement of all the variables
is the inventory phase of the planning process. The
establishment of the inferences for this contemporary data
(estimated data if need be) is accomplished in the analysis
phase. Key variables are then forecasted and inferences
drawn from them as to the behavior of other variables based
upon the discovered contemporary inferences. In the example

127

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128

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15 YEARS

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Figure V-2
A Conceptual Forecasting Model

129

shown in Figure V-2 , the forecasting is halted every five
years of forecast time and the behavior of the inferred
variables is deduced. Some of these inferences may be
deemed by the planner to be viable only in the near future
and thus the figure shows a gradual reduction in the number
of inferences drawn as the fifteen year forecast year is
approached. Should the circumstances warrant it, no
intermediate inferences need be made at all, or, conversely,
inferences could be drawn yearly or monthly into the future.

The substance of the key variables for all types of
urban planning is one or more of the following:
measures of economic activity,
population characteristics,
land use characteristics, and
transportation characteristics.

Each of these key variables can be further broken
down into demand variables, resource variables, or standard
variables. The interest of the planner is in properly
satisfying the future demand for recreation, housing,
community facilities, streets, or whatever the substance
of the plan in question. This demand is forecasted, future
standards of satisfaction are applied to the forecasted
demand yielding forecasted requirements. These requirements
are met by the allocation of resources forecasted to be
available .

Consider, by way of example, the forecasted demand for
retail food shopping in an area. This demand is generated
by the resident forecasted population in the area. It also
need not be forecasted as a key variable, but rather inferred
from the forecasted population.

The demand is very obviously related to a resource
variable which measures the supply of land likely to be
available for retail food merchandising, and number and types
of retail food merchandising establishments, their spatial
distribution in the urban area, and the buying population
hinterland necessary to support each of them.

The specific relationships between the forecasted
demand variables and the forecasted resource variables
■ ire (he forecasted standard variables. These standard
variables measure levels of service. Examples in this case
might include a maximum walking distance between households
and convenience food shopping, the parking necessary for a
supermarket, and the residential population necessary to
support such a supermarket. Not only must the demand and
resource variables be forecast, but the relationships
between them, the levels of service, these standard variables
must be forecast as well. Perhaps there will be no need
for convenience shopping, perhaps supermarkets will take
over this function, perhaps delivery will assume a greater
importance, perhaps people will shop less often, or more
often, etc. Each of these assumptions creates a different
state of nature. In the forecasting of standards, there
tend to be several possible states of nature with associated
probabilities that are either nearly equal or difficult to
evaluate at all. In contrast, the forecasting of demands
and resources typically considers only a few states of
nature and one of these usually predominates. In the example,
the forecasted population is unlikely to change present
eati ng habits .

Another complicating factor is that acceptable levels
of service tend to rise. As soon as a certain level of
service is met, the public expectancy grows and clamor is
soon raised for the newer, the better, the faster, the less
expensive and the more convenient.

Thus, the forecasting of standards is something of
the bete noire of urban planning. The beast must be
approached however, to help reduce the many unanswered
demands and oversupplys that pLague modern urban life.

The distinction between planning in the public sector
and planning in the private sector has been assiduously
avoided thus far in the model because it is not until

131

forecasting that il gains meaning. Consider Figure V-3 (a).
It shows four forecasts of a hypothetical variabJe based
upon different sets of assumpti ons . The solid line is the
forecast based upon a continuance of present governmental
policies and no significant cultural changes. It is thus
the most likely occurrence. This depends, of course
upon how distant the forecast year may he, hut is particu-
larly likely in the near term because of cultural and
governmental inertia effects.

The private sector is nearly powerless to affect the
occurrence of this condition. As such, planning in the
private sector seeks to meet these forecasted conditions
in the best possible way. This is usually measured in
terms of profit. The most likely forecast is taken as a
"given", speculation on the other forecasts ends, and the
process continues from this point.

The public sector, on the other hand, has some powers
available to it which may change the likelihood of the
different forecasted outcomes. Suppose it is deemed that
point A, in Figure V-3 (a), is a forecast with qualities
deemed preferable to those of point B, resulting from a
continuance of present public policies. What results then
is the first major design decision faced by the planner.
He must consult very closely with the client constituency
and they together must determine whether they will simply
plan to meet the conditions of point B, as in the private
sector, or accept a higher risk course of changing public
policy or public culture in the plan in an attempt to reach
point A.

The degree of risk involved, in addition to the risk
of forecasting itself, depends upon the substance of the
forecast. If points A and B represented amounts of land
zoned for high density apartment use and the local planning
commission could easily change the limits on this use, then,
if subsequent market pressure could be withstood, there could

132

UJ
Q

TIME
(a)

POINTS OF

TIME

REEVALUATION

(b)
Figure V-3
Conceptual Forecasted Outcomes

133

very well result less of this use and the public policy
could change public culture in the community. This is a
relatively low risk change in public policy.

Suppose points A and B were population forecasts.
Public policy could provide a system of Incentives and
penalties to limit population growth, perhaps the public
culture would react favorably with these programs and the
forecast might move away from po Lnt B towards point A.
But to plan on the forecast significantly moving is probably
a high risk undertaking.

In practice, the criticality of decisions of this
type is muted by three factors. First, planning is continu-
ous, not only within the process as outlined here, but also
"from process to process" over time as inputs change.
Changing inputs include changing personalities, changing
resources, changing demands, changing values and changing
complimentary or supplementary programs and conditions.
Thus, although planning may consider effects fifty or even
one hundred years into the future, the programs generating
those effects will be reviewed almost as many times in the
interval. The forecast conceptually shown in Figure V-3 (a)
actually occurs in a pattern similar to Figure V-3 (b) as time
goes by, with resultant corrective programs (if the hypothesis
is still valid) or (should conditions change) new plans
entirely .

The second muting influence has as its basis the
linn ted power of government in a democratic society. Although
some key variables could, under different circumstances, be
considered as endogenous to the urban planning process, they
are not. The governmental controls on economic activity
and population growth necessary to make these variables
endogenous are too severe to be in consonance with the
La Lssez-faire tradition of United States government . As a
result, these variables are considered exogenously with, at
most, only a mild warping of their expected outcomes
resulting from governmental activity.

134

The third muting influence is operational in nature.
In order to get on with the design of alternative solutions
to any problem, that problem must be bounded, perhaps
assumptively , but bounded nonetheless. There is a clear
need for rigorous urban theory and for this reason the
planner and client constiuency must not be capricious in
cutting off debate. That point must come, however, and
when it does, the conclusions then reached are taken as
"given 8 " and the problem solving process proceeds. This
does not preclude the important concept of feedback, but
for the substance of forecasting, the feedback loop is too
long and awaiting its information is antithetical to
planning. To the philosophers we leave the rest.

Area

Concerning the areal scope axis of the conceptual
model of planning activity, only a few points need be made
regarding forecasting.

In the inventory phase of the process, it was recognised
that delimitation of the study area could have a significant
impact on the inventory. As might be expected, this holds
true for the synthetic inventory, the forecast, as well.
In particular, however, some measures of economic activity
are very sensitive to areal delimitation. Further, some
forecasting techniques make use of historical areal relation-
ships to "step down" greater area forecasts to their
lesser area conponents . This occurs because large area
forecasts can be made with greater confidence than small
area forecasts, all else being equal.

The problem with large area forecasts rests with the
loss of refinement. This becomes especially apparent when
the object of the study at hand is to locate some particular
facility. The large area forecast may indeed warrant the
location of that facility but the question of where, within
the area, may require an additional subdivision of the

135

large area, an additional analysis making that already done
wasteful by reason of being inconclusive.

In general , the area under consideration in the plan-
ning process is subdivided according to Che homogeneity of
the forecasted variable. There may be areas of a certain
kind of residential land use, areas of a certain population
density, areas of a similar family income, areas of similar
transportation demand, or whatever else may be under consid-
eration. The homogeneity of the forecasted characteristic
enables the planner to treat these variables in aggregate
rather than to have to deal with each family, each automobile
and each residence.

Thus the problem of areal subdivision for forecasting
involves balancing the three characteristics of largeness
for methodological simplicity, smallness for refinement and
the degree of homogeneity of the important forecasted
variables .

Procedure

The point was made earlier in this chapter that the
substance of the forecasted key variables for all types of
urban planning is one or more of economic activity character-
istics, population characteristics, land use characteristics
and transportation characteristics. Those characteristics
dealing with economic activity and population tend to be
much more exogeneous than the remaining two, and procedurally
are usually forecast first. They are as near to primary
inputs as exist in urban planning, whereas transportation
and land use characteristics are more clearly associated
with whatever the nature of the plan in question happens
to be .

Population and economic activity characteristics can
methodologically be forecast independent of each other.
This then provides a cross check of at least some of the
characteristics. From population studies one could deduce

136

employment and income; and from economic activity studies
one could deduce employment thence population.

Land use and transportation characteristics are less
independent of each other. Different land uses affect the
transportation system differently, and different transporta-
tion facilities tend to promote different land uses. The
forecasting techniques for these characteristics are recursive-
involving trial distributions and tests for internal com-
patability as well as satisfaction of boundary conditions.
Some of the forecasting techniques are quite sophis-
ticated and draw from academic disciplines not only supportive
of urban planning but also with a body of knowledge and
methodology unique to them. This is particularly true with
regional economics and demography. Accordingly, the question
of hiring professional staff to execute these forecast s
must be addressed in the organization phase of the planning
process .

Forecasting Techniques
This section on the forecasting phase of the urban
planning process concludes by stepping back from conceptual
considerations and operationally considering some of the
commonly used specific forecasting techniques. Many are
adapted from other original uses and combinations and
permutations of techniques which have been used in the past.
There are clear favorites, but the application of any is a
strong function of not only the end use of the forecast,
but also the resources available to execute it.

Economic Activity Forecasts
Almost all economic activity forecasts make use of
national or regional forecasts as primary inputs, and
selectively apply this data to smaller areas of influence.
The selectivity of application ranges from the most
refined to the most crude.

137

In general, the planner must seek to answer the
question "What are the effects on the area in question if a
certain industry with a certain number of jobs moves into
or out of the area?" The most crude method of analysis is
to assume average conditions for the Industry, area, and
jobs and to apply national averages supplied by such
organizations as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. One such set
of averages (Community Relations Fact Booklet, 196*0 might
say that, for every one hundred new factory workers there
will be :

359 more people,

$710,000 more personal income per year,
3 more retail establishments,
100 more households,
97 more passenger cars,
$331,000 more retail sales per year,
91 more school children,
$229,000 more bank deposits, and
65 more people employed in non-manufacturing.
One of the most refined methods is that of input-
output analysis (Leontief, 1951). The conceptual basis of
this method is that every industry in a given area has a
relationship to every other industry in the area, and that
these relationships are measureable and can be expressed by
a series of mathematical equations. For each industry, an
analysis is made of the distribution of its output and the
sources of its input. Many of the inputs are themselves
outputs of another industry requiring another analysis and
iterations continue until the process converges. What
results is a many level model of the area economy in terms
of production. The use of input-output analysis in fore-
casting occurs when some share of national or regional
forecasted demand can be inferred to the area in question.
Then the impacts of this larger demand can be traced through
the model of the area economy resulting in area forecasts.

138

As an example, consider a simplified hypothetical
area with only three industries, printing, paper, and
chemicals. For every dollar's worth of printing output,
fifty cents is spent on paper, five cents on chemicals, and
a penny is spent hy the printing industry itself. For
every dollar's worth of paper output, a penny each is spent
on printing and paper and five cents is spent for chemicals,
And for every dollar's worth of chemical output, a penny
each is spent on printing and paper and forty cents is
spent for other chemicals. The transaction table is shown
below .

Table V-l

Cents Worth of Input per Dollar Output

Printing Paper Chemicals
Printing 111

Paper 50 1 1

Chemicals 5 5 40

Suppose the national or regional paper production is
forecasted to rise and that this hypothetical area's share
of that rise is forecast to be one hundred dollars. The
biggest assumption in the technique is that the input-
output relationships will continue to hold true, so that
the first effect is a dollar rise in printing production, a
five dollar rise in chemical production and an additional
dollar rise in paper production. This is entered in the
first round of input requirements shown in Table V-2 .

These first round requirements likewise require
inputs in the same fashion. The five dollars worth of
chemicals generates five cents worth of printing ($1 input/
$100 output X $5 output); five cents worth of paper ($1
input/$100 output X $5 output); and $2 worth of additional
chemicals ($40 input/$100 output X $5 output). So too for

140

employment, sales, value added, or income accruing to
residents. Economic activity serving both local and export
markets is prorated accordingly.

Just as in the input-output technique, the economic
base technique traces the flow of this economic activity
from industry to industry. What results is another model
of economic behavior, this one showing the impact on both
basic and non-basic activity for any exchange in the basic
portion of any activity.

As an example of this tracing or linking of economic
activities, consider again the simplified economic area
composed of the printing, paper, and chemical industries.
Suppose that the printing industry sold 80% of its output
to private concerns outside of the area under consideration,
the "exports private" sector. Another 17% is sold to the
federal government, "exports government", and the remainder
is sold locally, a percent each to other printing, the paper
and chemical industries. Similar data are inventoried for
the paper and chemical industries and the results are
tabulated below.

Table V-3

Allocation of Sales by Percent

Private Government

Exports Exports Local Printing Paper Chemicals

Printing 80 17 3 11 1

Paper 28 20 52 50 1 1

Chemicals 10 40 50 5 5 40

Before the planner can say that the printing industry
is 977, export (807o + 177.) or that the paper industry is
487, export (28% + 20%) he must investigate how the local
percentages are distributed. Consider the local consumption
of paper, 52% of the paper production. The majority of this
goes to the printing industry. And printing will export

141

some of that. Printing will export to private concerns
407, of the paper production (507 of paper to printing X
807, of printing to exports private); to the government 8 . 57,
of the paper production (507, of paper + printing X 1/7,
of printing to exports government) and distribute locally
1.57 of paper production, (507 of paper to printing X 307
of printing to local). In the same manner printing will
redistribute the 57, of production it gets from the chemical
industry and the 17 of production it gets from its own
industry. So that the three industries are tied to exports
both directly and indirectly. This is shown in the table
below.

Table V-4
Allocation of Sales by Percent Direct and Indirect

Export
Private

Export
Gov't

Local (to be
distributed
in the next
round)

Printing

Direct

Indirect

Total

80.00
1.18

17.00
.77

1.05

81.18

17.77

1.05

1007c

Paper

Direct

Indirect

Total

28.00
40.38

20.00
9.10

2.52

68.38

25.10

2.52

1007

Chemicals

Direct

Indirect

Total

10.00
9.20

40.00
18.05

22.75

19.20

58.05

22.75

1007

Considering the paper industry, its first round indirect
private exports is composed of the 407, that printing will
export, the 0.287 that paper will export (287 paper to private
exports X 17, paper to paper), and the 0.107 that chemicals will
export (107 chemicals to private exports X 17 paper to chemicals)

142

The first round indirect government exports is composed of the
8.5% that printing will export, the 0.2% that paper will export
(20% paper to government export X 1% paper to paper), and the
0.4% that chemicals will export (40% chemicals to government
export X 1% paper to chemicals). The residual of 2.52% will
continue to he distributed in a like manner, round by round,
until it becomes insignificant.

In this simple example, there are no local sectors
of ultimate consumption. In reality, of course, there are.
Some of the paper, printing, chemicals or whatever will be
consumed locally and some will eventually be consumed by
such .local sectors as business investment, housing investment,
local governmental operations and export governmental invest-
ments .

In forecasting with this model inferences are drawn
from national or regional forecasts for those industries that
are basic to the area, the inferred shares of the large area
basic industry forecasts inputed to the model, and the
result is the forecasted impact on the local area. This is
clearly analogous to forecasting with the input-output model.

The sample inventory shown in Chapter 111 lists the
input information necessary for this type of economic I ase
study. The technique is somewhat sensitive to the unit of
measure of the economic activity and more so to the delimita-
tion of the area studied.

Both the input-output technique and the economic base
technique result in models of economic behavior of the study
area that are at once sophisticated and costly. If, for the
purposes of the plan, such analyses are not required or are
prohibitively expensive, there are a number of cruder, quicker
and less costly techniques which may suffice. One of these is
the Hoyt (1939) economic base theory of which the Tiebout
technique is a sophisticated extension. In the Hoyt technique,
the employment in each basic industry in the area is calculated.
The judgement of the degree to which an industry may be basic

143

is not traced out, as with Tiebout , but estimated by inter-
viewing the industries or using national averages and pro-
ration techniques. If, for example, a national average
shows that there are three retail trade employees per one
hundred population and the area under consideration has
four, the fourth employee is considered to be serving some
undiagnosed export function and is considered basic.
Similarly, if the area in question receives one percent of
t he national income and a local industry markets a product
nationally, ninty-nine percent of that industry's employees
are considered basic and one percent non-basic.

Given the basic employment and the total employment,
the basic/non-basic employment ratio is calculated. This
ratio is then applied to forecasted shares of national
changes in employment for each basic industry. This applica-
tion results in a forecast of non-basic employment, and
hence total employment, likely to occur as a result of
changes in the area's basic economic activity.

The has ic/non-basic employment ratio is a comparative
tool and its value is more relative than absolute. A very
high ratio is typical of an area of intense export activity.
It may also describe an area of service activity so weak
that it is difficult to obtain a doctor's appointment or to
get a carpet cleaned or a haircut. If the export activity
is dominated by a single industry, a high ratio may indicate
that the area under investigation is dangerously dependent
on changes in the economic behavior of that industry.

A very low basic/non-basic employment ratio could
describe an area of many duplicative and marginally performing
service industries selling each other gasoline and doing
each other's wash. Here is a clear need for the nutritive
impact of additional basic industry for the area's economy.

There are two remaining classes of economic activity
forecasting techniques, differentiated by their use or non-
use of large area or perhaps national economic forecasts.

144

By the use of large area or national economic fore-
casts the planner can, through a series of proration
techniques, successively apply historical relationships of
smaller area participation in bigger area economic activity.
For example, historical data on a county's share of state
employment can be obtained and plotted on a time scries.
A curve is fitted and a likely ratio obtained for a future
time period. When this future ratio is applied to the
forecasted state employment, the result is the forecasted
county employment. The future state employment was obtained
in the same manner from forecasted regional employment , and
that from the forecasted national employment.

This technique can be used to forecast any economic
indicator in addition to employment, providing the input
data are available. It also can be used to forecast any of
these indicators by component sector such as heavy manu-
facturing employment, retail trade employment, and agricul-
tural employment.

The technique is probably best used when forecasts
are obtained for all the component parts of each larger
area. Then internal consistancy checks can be made to
insure that the sum of the parts does indeed equal the whole
and that the relationships of the parts to each other remain
rational at each stage in the process. When this is done this
technique is commonly called the apportionment method.

Tf, however, the proportioning is done without reference
to the complimentary areas, as a regional share may he pro-
portioned to a state without considering the other states
making up the region, or a state share may he proportioned
to a county without considering the other counties, then I lie
technique has come to be called the ratio step-down method.

Every forecasting technique so far outlined depends
upon the readily available national forecasts of specific
economic indicators as exogenous variables. Should these
for some reason be suspect or not applicable, the only

145

recourse is to forecast based upon an extrapolation of present
and historic local trends. This last class of techniques
is the most crude and only as good as the imagination and
intuition of the forecaster.

Population Estimates and Forecasts
As in economic activity forecasting, population
forecasting methods range from the refined to the crude,
but in each case they are inherently simpler to execute
owing to the consideration of only three central variables;
births, deaths and migration. Of these, migration offers
the most difficulty owing to the lack of a good basis for
forecasting it.

In the cohort-survival method, the population is
separated by sex and perhaps race into convenient a^e groups
each covering typically five years. Using specific mortality
rates for each sex-race-age group, called a cohort, the
survivors are forecast into the same sex, same race, but
five year older cohort. This is done for all cohorts and
then a forecasted net migration is distributed over these
groups and added to or subtracted from the survivors. Using
specific birth rates for the women in each race-age cohort,
the zero to five year old sex-race-age cohorts are generated
to fill the vacancies caused by the five year aging process.
The procedure is repeated until the forecast year is met.
The strength of the cohort-survival method is that it
recognizes that the vital birth and death rates vary from
cohort to cohort.

The use of the cohort -survival method is at the same
time limited by the availability of forecasted specific
rates and the judgement involved in computing and distri-
buting migration. A simpler case of the cohort-survival
method involves considering the aggregate population rather
than sex-age-race cohorts and applying aggregate forecasted
rates. Thus is called the migration and natural increase
method .

146

If national or large area population forecasts are
available, they can be prorated down to the smaller area
being considered by either the apportionment ov ratio step-
down methods in a manner analogous to that for economic
activity .

Cruder population forecasts can be obtained from the
forecast of employment made in the economic activity fore-
casts or from a conceptual technique which forecasts the
population holding capacity of an area based upon forecasted
zoning, land characteristics, available water and other
utilities, etc. Also, if the city in question is clearly
analogous in development to another older city, some fore-
casts can be based on the present day development of the
older area.

Again as in the case of the economic activity studies.,
local trends can be used exclusively to forecast population,
these trends being identified by any of a number of common
ma tbeniat ical techniques. A strong basis must be held for
assuming that bistorical rates will continue and that
specific correlative relationships will remain constant.

Because of the relative ease of employing any of these
techniques, it is a recommended practice to use several
simultaneously in an attempt to gain greater confidence in
the accuracy of the forecasted population, yet writers have
been hard pressed to state a best method. If the migration
of an area were known to be zero, the simple natural increase
method might prove to be the "best."

Estimating the present population is a lesser included
case of forecasting the future population. This is so because
some of the input data is presently available. The most
refined methods deal with migration and natural increase
in a manner first developed by the bureau of the Census
(Cliapin, 1965). The method is to take the most recent
census enumeration, compute the natural increase by any of
the methods above, estimate the net migration and loss or

147

gain from the armed forces, and the resultant sum is L In-
present population. The net migration is estimated in either
of two ways. In one case the ratio of the census year-
total population to the census year school popuiat ion is
multiplied by the current year school population. This
would give current year total population if local and national
school enrollment trends were the same. This is usually not
the case so the resultant figure is corrected by multiplying
it by the percent change in local school enrollment minus
the percent change in national school enrollment.

An alternative method develops an estimate of current
school population hased upon natural increase alone using
for example, a cohort survival approach with one year cohorts.
The difference between this estimate and the current school
enrollment is attributable to net migration.

Other methods of population estimating depend upon
symptomatic data. As deaths are commonly a matter of public-
record, for instance, one could apply to them known average
death rates to arrive at the estimated population of each
death group for which a rate exists. The same holds true
for birth rates to arrive at the number of women of child-
bearing age, thence the rest of the population. Changes in
the number of dwelling units, automobile registrations or
similar such data could be used, in conjunction with known
rates, to arrive at population estimates. As with population
forecasting, it is not uncommon for several of these methods
to be used in an attempt to gain confidence in the resultant
estimate .

Land Use Forecasts
Land use forecasting is of a different genre than
population or economic activity forecasting because it is
tied very closely to design considerations. It a 1 so enjoys
an interdependent relationship with transportation forecasting.
Further, of all the types of forecasting, that of land use

148

has the strongest association with forecasted standards of
n.",e. For these reasons as well as the fact thai specific
land use forecasting techniques are typically unique Lo the
circumstances of their application, it is only with reluctance
that land use forecasting can he discussed outside of the
context of a specific problem.

Nonetheless, the conceptual basis is clear. land use
forecasting predicts the amounts and kinds of land use
likely to occur as a result of the fulfillment of l he-
population and economic activity forecasts. Further, it
forecasts the likely locations of these uses and in this
sense, enters the whole area of design considerations
discussed in the next chapter. Included in these considera-
tions are the careful balancing of uses to each other, the
impacts of uses on the transportation system, and the
possible plan elements and public policies which might
favorably change the forecasts.

Chapin (1965) calls these considerations loeation and
space requirements, and Martin (1961) calls them location,
activity and intensity considerations. The manipulation
of these considerations and the affixing of them to pieces
of land is typically accomplished through the use of one
or more of the following four classes of models.

The first class of forecasting model is judgemental in
nature. The planner simply studies the area under considera-
tion, its relationship to the rest of the area, the character-
istics of the supply of land and the expected population and
economic demands on the land, its present or future zoning,
accessibility and like considerations, and intuitively
forecasts what the likely development will be. This is
not to imply that intuitive and creative judgement is not
used in the other methods, but here there are no computa-
tional or procedural techniques employed to aid in judgment.

The second class of forecasting model adds to the first
some procedural rules. Martin calls this land use accounting

149

and from the balance of available land after each forecast
are successively subtracted out public open space and
recreational land, singular uses such as cemeteries, airports
and public buildings, then major commercial use, streets,
industrial use, residential use, and finally, non-residential
uses within residential areas such as schools, churches and
fire houses.

The third general class of models uses mathematical
abstractions to allocate total land use requirements to each
available land unit. This includes all forms of the gravity
model and a good example is the Hansen (1959) model for
Washington, D.C. In this class of models, population and
economic activity growth forecasted for the whole area is
distributed to various zones in the area based upon each
/one's attractive force compared relative to the al tractive-
forces of the remaining zones.

The fourth class of land use forecasting models is
composed or" mathematical abstractions of economic lehavior.
This analysis can he micro or macro in approach, and typical
examples include the work by Herbert and Stevens (1960),
Stewart (1969), and Lowry (1964). Models of this type
allocate to zones amounts of population and economic activity
based upon observed economic behavioral patterns used by
individuals and firms in location decisions.

Transportation Forecasts
This introduction to transportation forecasting con-
cludes this chapter on the forecasting phase of the urban
planning process and is necessarily limited to urban ground
transportation. The forecasting techniques for this type
of activity are part of a large and strong body of knowledge,
primarily due to a favorable set of federal, state and
local legislation supportive of both research and operations.

This body of knowledge includes more than forecasting
methods, of course, and has come to be called Urban

150

Transportation Planning or UTP. A brief review of UTP is in
order here in relation to the conceptual model of planning
activity.

In the organization phase, UTP has become somewhat
more institutionalized than planning in general; first,
because of a generally more refined and widely applicable
set of procedures, and second, because of various legisla-
tive and administrative requirements imposed by state and
federal agencies. In the inventory phase, UTP concentrates
on four major c Lasses of information: demographic, social
and economic characteristics of the area; a complete facil-
ities inventory of the urban transportation system; land use
characteristics; and an origin-destination survey composed
of home interviews or widely sought after substitutes, a
truck and taxi, survey, and cordon counts of traffic across
boundaries of the study area. In the analysis phase a
network is constructed to simulate the transportation system
together with these inventoried characteristics. Land use,
demographic, social, and economic relationships are con-
structed to explain the amount, location and timing of
inventoried trips. Distributional relationships are con-
structed to explain movements observed from one traffic
zone to another. These generally balance the desire to
travel, measured by some propensity to interchange, against
the resistance to travel, measured by a decay of this pro-
pensity due to zonal separation, which is in turn measured
by time, distance, cost, etc. If the application of these
and other relationships (for instance, the split of trips
between the automobile mode and the mass transit mode) to
the network results in a duplication of the inventoried
observations regarding the amount, location, timing, mode
and distribution of trips, both the network and the
relationships are hypothesized to be valid. UTP then moves
to the forecasting phase.

151

The first step in UTP forecasting is to determine the
amount of trips produced at, or attracted to, each traffic
zone for the forecast year. Separately forecast demographic ,
economic, social and land use characteristics serve as inputs
to the various techniques.

One method, first used hy the Chicago Area Transporta-
tion Study (1960), constructs from the inventoried data a
trip rate per acre for different land uses. The land uses
are differentiated by character, location and density
characteristics. New trip rates are forecast and applied
to forecasted land uses resulting in the amount of forecasted
trips .

Another method, developed by Walker (1960) for the
Puget Sound Regional Transportation Study, uses cross
classification analysis, a statistical technique in which
average values of a dependent variable can be obtained for
different combinations of two or more independent variables.
The independent variables are considered in ranges or classes
and, in this case, there were three classes of environmental
factors and six classes of household characteristics. For
each of the eighteen combinations of these independent
variables, trip production rates and trip attraction rates
were calculated from the inventoried data by cross classifi-
cation. For each zone, the forecasted environmental and
household characteristics then determined the applicable
rate of trip production or attraction.

Another method uses the statistical technique of
multiple regression analysis. Equations are typically
constructed with trip production or attraction being some
function of independent variables such as trip purpose,
family income, vehicle ownership, land use, distance from
the CB, length of trip, mode of trip, and time of day. The
analysis calibrates this model to present and historical
data for the area in question. Any forecasted changes in

152

the independent variables are then inserted by zone and
the equation solved for future trip generation by zone.

All these methods base trip generation on the demo-
graphic, economic and land use characteristics of the traffic
zone. Another type of trip generation model includes "as well
consideration of the transportation subsystem that serves
the zone and connects it to other zones. Zones with
relatively more accessible destinations should produce more
trips and zones that are themselves relatively more access-
ible should attract more trips. Nakkash (1969) has developed
a model that considers this accessibility which states that
the relative accessibility of a zone to an activity for a
certain purpose is equal to the accessibility of that zone
to that activity for that purpose divided by the sum of all
the accessibilities of all the zones to that activity for
that purpose. The accessibility of any one zone to any one
activity for any one purpose is the sum over all the zones
of the size of the activity in each zone multiplied by a
friction factor corresponding to the travel time from the
zone in consideration to each of the other zones for the
purpose under consideration.

Trip generation models forecast the likely number of
trip ends, either productions or attractions. The links
between these ends are next distributed from zone to zone
in the area. The several distribution models used to forecast
these interzonal transfers can be broadly classified into
two types, synthesis models and growth models.

Synthesis models forecast interzonal transfers based
upon the behavior patterns of travelers observed in the
inventory and analysis phases. One type of synthesis model
is the opportunity model which mathematically states that
the probability that a trip will terminate within a zone is
equal to the probability that the zone contains an acceptable
destination times the probability that an acceptable destina-
tion closer to the point of origin has not been found. The

153

probabilities are determined empirically from the inventoried
data and follow the observed trend that the longer the trip,
the more selective is the destination.

Another synthesis model is the gravity model which
mathematically states that the number of trips from one zone
to another zone is directly related to the total number of
trips originating in the first zone and to the total number
of trips ending (a measure of attractiveness) in the second
zone, and is inversely related to a "friction of space" as
measured in travel time, distance, cost or a combination of
these factors. The friction defined by these factors varies
by trip purpose.

Tomazinis (1962) formulated a combination of the
gravity model and the opportunity model called the competing
opportunity model. This model states that the probability
that a trip is going into a zone is the ratio between the
number of trip destinations in the zone divided by the
number of destination opportunities an equal time away
from the origin as the zone in question. This model considers
the land uses at the origin and destination as well as the
intervening land uses. It uses zone productions and the
resultant attractions may not be in accord with the
attractions as forecasted by trip generation techniques.
This is resolved by successive approximations.

Grecco (1962) has developed a synthesis model based
upon the theory and mechanics of linear graph theory. Trip
flow is a function of demand and travel time. In the
linear graph, flow sums to zero at each vertex or zone, and
demand sums to zero around each circuit or interzonal
d i stribution .

The other general class of distribution models are
growth factor methods and they differ from synthesis model
in that they project current demands rather than synthesize
future demands.

154

In the uniform factor method, a single growth factor
is estimated for the entire area under consideration. The
interzonal transfers inventoried by the origin-destination
study are then multiplied by this factor to yield future
interzonal transfers.

In the average factor method, different growth
factors are forecast for each zone and the average of the
two appropriate factors is used to multiply the inventoried
interzonal transfer between any two zones. Adjustments
are successively approximated to satisfy the control totals.
Fratar (1954) has developed a growth factor based upon
the present distribution and the growth factors of the future
destinations. The ratios of the present attractions for
each destination divided by the total present production
for the origin in question, are multiplied by the respective
destination growth factors to yield distributional factors.
These distributional factors are then normalized and
applied to the future trip productions from the origin in
question.

Although the use of growth factors to distribute trips
is simple, it does require the input of an origin-destination
survey and constant zonal boundaries. The growth factor
mechanics also break down when considering low volume zones
that are likely to greatly increase from the base year to
the forecast year.

The next step in the forecasting phase of UTP is to
split these distributed trips between those likely to be
accomplished by automobile and those likely to be accomp-
lished by mass transit. The four most important factors
affecting mass transit usage are automobile ownership,
density of development, transit service characteristics, and
the economic status of the tripmaker.

The Pittsburgh Area Transportation Study (1961) has
shown that an automobile ownership increases from no cars
to three cars per household, transit usage decreases from

155

sixty percent to eleven percent of ,-iJJ trips made per
household. The reasons for the decrease are intuil ively
c Icar.

Transit usage increases with density or intensity of
land use development. Again the reasons are simple. High
density residential development is generally inhabited by
low income - low auto ownership families. High density
non-residential development is typically associated with
high attractiveness for tripmaking together with difficult
and expensive driving conditions.

Four factors govern the level of service offered by
mass transit; travel time, travel cost, travel comfort and
tr.ivel convenience. bach of these has a preferred direction
of improvement is perceived by the potential user.

Increasing family income is correlated with a decrease
in transit usage. This decrease is not quite so severe with
work trips as it is with non-work trips because of the
continued use of rapid rail mass transit for work trips in
some areas as a cultural phenomenon rather than an economic
one .

These four factors are not independent of each other.
They are also related to and vary according to trip purpose
such as the work trip or the school trip. Accordingly,
modal split models variously consider combinations of some
or all of these factors, based upon intuitive and statistical
evidence, to forecast the probable split between the automo-
bile and mass transit usage. The mechanics of these consider-
ations typically involve graphical techniques or regression
analyses, the interdependence of the independent variables
notwithstanding .

Graphical techniques of modal split forecasting include
the use of diversion curves which are a function of system
characteristics. For various ratios of mass transit cost
to automobile cost, or of mass transit travel time to auto-
mobile time, curves are constructed showing the probable

156

percent of total trips diverted to mass transit usage. These
curves are actually several families of curves, each
family classifying and cross classifying the factors affecting
transit usage such as trip purpose, trip direction, time of
day, levels of service, economic status of the traveler,
trip destination, and many more.

Mechanically, these diversion curves either deal with
trip ends, origins and destinations, or trip interchanges,
the movements or trips themselves.

Trip end modal split models are applied to generated
Lrips, and only after the modal split are these trips dis-
tributed as outlined in the previous discussion. Fertal
(1966) has summarized the key features of some of the trip
end models. In the Chicago model, modal split was explained
by automobile ownership and orientation to the CBD. The
Pittsburgh model introduced the concept of "captive" and
"choice" riders, the former being totally dependent upon
the transit system for their needs. The Erie model added
employment accessibility as a means to differentiate between
transit usage and automobile usage. The Puget Sound model
considered accessibility by four trip purposes.

Trip interchange modal split models are applied to
distributed trips. Fertal notes that the Washington D.C.
model considered only the morning peak hour, and then by
trip purpose and classes of tripmaker characteristics. The
Twin Cities model used multiple regression analyses to
construct two equations for work and non-work trips. These
equations were then plotted to result in diversion curves
of travel time ratio, income, residential density, employ-
ment density, and parking cost for each of the two purposes.
The Buffalo model introduced the concept of "auto avail-
ability." If an automobile is used for a work trip it is no
longer available for other trips and this concept was used
to replace auto ownership.

157

The result of all the work to this point in the UTP
forecasting phase is a trip table. This table shows the
forecasted traffic flow from all origins to all destinations
by mode. Thus the forecasting phase dealing with demand
has ended.

It has been noted, however, that the conceptual model
of planning activity includes forecasting considerations
of resource supply and standards. These considerations lead
quiLe naturally to the final phase of UTP, traffic assign-
men L .

Traffic assignment is the process of allocating trips
to an existing or proposed system of transportation facil-
ities. Just as in land use forecasting, traffic assignment
brings design and evaluation considerations to bear and
the discussion of these in the conceptual model of plan-
ning activity is deferred to the next two chapters. These
design and evaluation considerations arise because traffic
assignment techniques evaluate and compare alternative
transportation systems by allowing proposals to be syntheti-
cally tested for their traffic carrying capabilities according
to various design standards.

The computational technique for traffic assignment is
one of network analysis. Traffic is assigned to a minimum
path tree in the network from an origin to all possible
destinations. The minimum path is that which minimizes some
travel function such as time, cost, distance, accidents or
a combination of these factors.

All the traffic from one origin to one destination
seeks the same minimum or equally minimum paths. The result
simulates how the trips would be made in the absence of any
capacity considerations along this otherwise minimum path.
This is called the "all or nothing" assignment technique
and is useful as a design consideration to see how the system
should operate unrestrained by resource considerations.

158

In contrast, "capacity restraint" assignment techniques
have been developed. These recognize that the all or nothing
technique tends to overload some links in the network. The
capacity restraint technique applies a restraint function as
the links in the network become overloaded in successive
minimum path assignments. This restraint function could
be static, as a certain maximum number of trips at any time,
or iL could be dynamic relating capacities to volumes and
speeds at all times.

Another method developed by McLaughlin (1965) incor-
porates linear graph analysis to assign traffic. One
component is the number of trips from the centroid of any
origin zone to the centroid of any destination zone as
displayed in the trip table. The other component is the
street and its intersections. The trips sum to zero at
each vertex and are the flow variable. The pressure
variables is the value that travelers perceive in the choice
of a route. McLaughlin formulated a value function based
upon cost to reflect otherwise indeterminate subjective
values held by travelers.

Summary

This chapter has considered forecasting both as a
phase in the conceptual model of planning activity and as
a collection of techniques constituting this phase. The
purpose of forecasting is to manufacture a synthetic inventory
of future planning conditions. There is feedback to the
analysis phase for the interpretation of this inventory and
feedforeward from the earlier phases of the planning process
for its construction and scope.

Given this information and interpretation, the planner
is now ready to design a plan, or a set of alternative plans,
to meet these forecasted conditions in a manner arising
from and consistent with the goals and objectives of the
client constituency.

159

CHAPTER VI
DESIGN

The design phase of the conceptual model of planning
activity is both simple and complex. It is simple because,
in its most basic sense, urban design is a bounded problem.
Prior phases have resulted in the identification of demands.
These demands translate into facilities through the applica-
tion of standards. Urban design is the locating of these
facilities on the land surface of the area in question.
The amount of land is bounded by physical constraints, the
amounts and types of facilities are bounded by demand con-
straints. The problem is simplified to a locational and
distributional one.

While this view of urban design has a conceptual
clarity and an operational ease that make it attractive,
it could easily result in a design that is sterile, harsh,
repulsive and inhuman even though it may be mechanically
functional. The design process becomes complex because it
cannot be approached from the standpoint of mechanical
functionality alone. True, machines and systems of services
must function if an urban area is to survive. But the most
important functional operative in an urban area is man and
his refined sensibilities demand an environment that is not
only mechanically functional but also harmonious, fitting,
comfortable and aesthetically in balance with himself, other
men, his machines and facilities, and nature.

This is as awesome a mandate as has ever been presented
by man to himself. It is not new and will never be old.
[t is a mandate that comes from everyone in contact with the
area in question. The attempts to satisfy the mandate affect

160

everyone and, for thai reason, urban planning enjoys no
lack of spirited criticism, at times, it would seem, from
all sides. So it is with a mixture of reverence, wonder and
fear that the urban planner takes up his pen and accepts
the charter to design.

Fortunately, the urban planner is not alone. It is
widely recognized that nearly equal participation in the
design phase of urban planning is required of architects,
landscape architects, and engineers as well as urban planners
No one of these professions is necessarily preordained to
take the lead in this effort. In fact, this consideration
is ancillary to the need for all to participate. The com-
position of t fie design team is, of course, a function of
the probLem at hand and the resources available. In the
ideal case of a large and well supported undertaking, the
design team should include these professions as well as
those of sociology, regional economics, political science,
operations research, education and many more.

The orchestration of these individuals and their
ideas is a problem not without danger, and it could well be
that the single most important member is identified because
of his administrative capability as well as his professional
contribution .

The composition of the design team is ad hoc in nature
and it would be difficult to construct a normative example.
Referring to the organizational aspects detailed in Chapter
II, the key planning staff and principal consultants would
certainly be expected to participate. Tf the Technical
Advisory Committee has been intimately involved in the
planning process thus far, they certainly should be con-
sulted. It is not beyond feasibility that the Citizens'
Advisory Committee could be represented on the design team.

There is, of course, a strong element of evaluation
in any design judgement. When the design team cannot agree
on a clearly superior design facet among those considered,

161

• il ternat i ve plans should be prepared to reflect the differing
points of view. Although evaluation methods are considered
in t lie next chapter, a system of staged design and evaluation
cycles could he employed, each more detailed in agenda than
the previous to keep the number of alternatives currently
viable to a manageable level. In this way, as soon as an
alternative becomes undesirable, its development ceases,
and only those judged to be still possible continue to the
next stage.

An operational device such as this only reflects, of
course, the continuum design effort from the general to
the specific. As the design process travels along this
continuum, the input of the urban planner gradually diminishes
in relation to that of the architect and engineer until,
finally, specific design facets of a particular facility
come to bear. Recognizing that is is quixotic to establish
the point along the continuum where the theory and practice
of urban planning defer to the theory and practice of
architecture and engineering, this work nonetheless proposes
that this point occurs somewhere between the gross locational
characteristics of a facility and the design of the facility
itself. The continuum continues through this point as
locational characteristics affect the design and the design
affects locational characteristics.

All along the design continuum, the urban planner and
the design team as a whole must consider many ideas. These
may be pedagogically grouped into considerations of form
and considerations of quality.

Considerations of Form
Webster's New World Dictionary defines a palimpsest as
"a parchment, table, etc. that has been written upon or
inscribed two or three times, the previous text or texts
having been imperfectly erased and remaining, therefore
still partly visible." Martin (1968) uses this marvelous

162

word to describe the form of the city and it is most appro-
priate. Throughout the history of the city, wave after
wave of influence has left its mark on the city form, never
quite obliterating the prior images.

In recent American history, several individuals have
sought to identify these influences as determinants of form.
CoJby (1933) identified opposing centrifugal and centripetal
forces as locational determinents . Centrifugal forces are
those that cause a move away from the central part of the
city. Examples are spatial force owing to central congestion,
site force owing to intensity of use in the central city,
situational force owing to the unnatural juxtaposition of
land uses in the central city, a force of social evolution
owing to climbing land values and taxes in the central city,
and a force relating to the status and organizat i on of
occupance. The centripetal forces of attraction to the
central city are those associated with site attraction,
functional convenience, functional magnetism and functional
prestige .

Burgess (1929) proposed that, as a city grows, it
expands radially from its center resulting in a series of
concentric circles, each two enclosing a discrete zone.
Recognizing the exceptions caused by natural or artificial
barriers, he proposed that each zone has the tendency to
expand to the next outer zone as city growth occurs. In
Chicago, he identified five such zones; the CBD, the zone
surrounding the CBD in transition, the zone of independent
workingman's homes, the zone of better residences, and the
commuter zone.

Hoyt (1939) proposed that, instead of forming concentric
circles, zones of similar land use tended to be wedge shaped,
radiating outward from the CBD. New development on the arc
of the wedge tended to be of the same character as the
wedge itself.

163

Harris and Ullman (1945) agreed that such city forms
as the concentric circle and the wedge do occur, but they
noted that there were- several such centers of circles and
origins of wedges in the typical American city. Among them
are the CBD , various districts of wholesale operations, light
manufacturing, heavy industry, residential districts of
various kinds, and suburbs and satellites. The centers are
places oi high accessibility such as provided by the inter-
section of important automobile routes, rail lines or rapid
trans it. 1 ines .

Models such as these have become classics in modern
urban planning, and survive to this day despite the now
forma] influences caused by the post-war population growth,
increase in disposable income, housing and shopping facilities,
and the rapid rise in automobile ownership. Factors such as
these have made urban dwellers more mobile than ever before,
and this is recognized in the more recent studies of urban
form which consider the dimension of time.

Vance (1966) has mapped seven sequential stages of the
development of the CBD. The first stage is the process of
inception which includes the original siting of the town
and is intimately associated with the functional character-
istics of the landscape. Next occurring is the process of
exclusion whereby the high rent paying abilities of certain
functions tend to locate these functions in the CBD, and
functions with lesser rent paying ability locate in descending
ability along a rent gradient that has its apex at the CBD.
The third stage is one of segregation in which one class of
high renters becomes so large that it naturally subdivides
and segregates into smaller units to maintain identity.
Vance notes that the New York financial district has segre-
gated into a stock-exchange district around Wall Street,
the ship company district on Park Row, advertising on Madison
Avenue, and other corporate headquarters on Park Avenue,
in the next temporal stage of growth, the CBD extends itself

164

outward in long thin alignments along arterial strec
With individual mobility, these sections become an integral
part of the CBD and typically offer business servicer,
equipment for example. The next stage of readjustment occurs
because of the development of areas outside of the CBD which
attract functions formerly occurring in the CBD. In the
sixth stage, physical redevelopment of the CBD takes place
so that in the last stage, many of the functions associated
with the CBD at the beginning of the cycle are now performed
in satelite districts, and the CBD now performs new, unspec-
ified and highly specialized functions.

The cycle reoccurs for both the new CBD and the satelite
districts .

Birch (1971) has proposed and tested the concept of
seven stages of residential growth. Stage one is rural in
nature and characterized by very low density single famil
units. Stage two is characterized by a high rate of new
construction o£ single family units. Stage three occurs
when the area becomes fully developed, with high quality
relatively new single family structures and perhaps some
multi-unit structures as well. Property values and rents
are at their maximum. In stage four, the structures built
in stage three have aged and rents have fallen. Lower income
groups move into the area and live at a higher density than
the original inhabitants. In stage five, building deter-
ioration continues and the grown children of the stage four
inhabitants leave for other stage four or stage two areas
of the city. Population declines and average age of the
inhabitants is high. Stage six occurs when the land become:
too valuable for stage five use and the inhabitants do not
have enough political strength to retain it. The land is
acquired and redeveloped into a stage three residential area,
but with typically higher densities. Stage seven occurs
when the recaptured areas themselves decay.

165

Theories such as these emphasize the temporal as well
as the spatial aspects of urban form. Hlumenfeld (1967)
likened the city not to a work of visual art but rather to
a work of music or literature. He notes the single failure
of this analogy arises from the fact that a symphony or a
novel is the work of one man in a definite period of time.
Once completed, it remains so. On the other hand, the city
changes over time, with each new wave of influence altering
what was there before and adding new forms. Additions to
the palimsest never cease.

Urban planners recognize that their symphonies wil
be "unfinished"; that their plans will be subject to the
exigencies of politics and finance; that their plans are
based on an incomplete knowledge of causal relationships;
and that their plans may be diluted, misunderstood, and
possibly wither.

One way out of this problem is to "make no little
plans" and to drive for acceptance through sheer audacity,
force of will and personality. An equally preferred method
is to accept the complexity of the problem and treat it as
one of stimulus provision - response classification in the
classic manner of black box simulation.

The goals and objectives of the client constituency
map the desired response. Included here are private
entrepreneurial, household, and individual decisions desired
as part of that response.

The stimuli are public policies, the policies of the
client constituency, the resources operationally available
for both planning and implementation, and, not to be
overlooked, short range changes in current methods of
operation .

The task of the planner is to assemble one or more
sets of stimuli which, when added to the form and policy now
existing in the city, will, in his professional opinion,
provoke varying degrees of the desired response.

166

The considerations of form begin with statement of
the desired response. As an example, Safdie (1970) prepared
an environmental code for urban residential living.

Every family or individual must be provided with an
outdoor space equal to or greater than its interior
living space. This is essential to proper functioning
of the family. The nature of the spaces themselves
would vary from climate to climate.

The outdoor space must be continuous with the indoor
spaces for family functions.

Sleeping facilities for young children should be
close to those of their parents. Teenage or older
children should have separate sleeping accomodations.
Families with children of different ages should have
two children's sleeping areas.

Every child should have a private sleeping space (a
North American criterion; other cultures may be
different). Children should have work and play space
of sufficient size for these functions.

House design must allow the individual to adapt and
change the dwelling.

A family should be able to function normally without
hearing or being heard by its neighbors. "Normal"
functioning includes occasional fights, playing loud
music or instruments, children playing and running
around. A decibel rating similar to that of a single
family house walls with a six-foot air space should
be considered minimal.

The family should be able to carry on normal functions
without being observed by others.

The living and dining spaces should not be observable
from another dwelling closer than one hundred feet.

In the Florida climate, glass area should not face
south or west unless adequately protected. In the
Quebec climate, some openings and living spaces should
receive sun. A dwelling should receive at least three
(four, six) hours of sunshine per day.

In hot climates, openings should be arranged to
capture any prevailing winds and make dwellings
less dependent on mechanical air-conditioning.

167

North America is traditionally a single-family-house
culture. It is mandatory that the dwelling unit must
be recognizable and definable from the outside by the
occupant when he is in its immediate vicinity.

Access to the house should be through pleasant, space
in which there is daylight. It should be possible
to sit or talk to people. No accumulation of odors.
Provision for children similar to the experience of
a residential street.

A child of this age should be able to leave his family
dwelling on his own and wander to a minimum distance
of one hundred and fifty feet, meet at least six to
ten children of his age, and find some play areas.

Access to play areas and play fields within an area
of five acres.

Access on their own to cultural and recreational
facilities such as movie houses, libraries, parks,
sport centers, etc.

Within the community there must be spaces where adults
can spontaneously meet or just sit around.

The ideal arrangement for the North American family
of any income group is to be able to drive into the
kitchen.

Within the inner community of 5,000, pedestrians and
vehicles should never cross.

Public transportation is mandatory so that the family
will not be dependent on one (or two) cars.

Entrance to houses should be shared by about four
families, to permit social inter -dependency . This
assumption may be wrong in number or even in its basic
form, but something of the sort must be established.
It is certainly true in the selfbuilt favellas of
Latin America.

People need to be able to identify with a larger
community unit. This can be observed in most
vernacular village architecture.

The ideal community is a mixture of various individuals
and families of different size and make up. Older
people, families with young or older children, single
people .

168

The community must also have within it a mixture of
families of varying professions and racial origin
(this of course is a value judgment that can he
challenged, but writing it down forces one to fate it).

Facilities beyond the reach of individual low income
families, such as work shops, car shop facilities,
furniture making shops, greenhouses and plant supplies,
should be provided by the community.

Within fifteen minutes' walking distance the family
should find a medium-size park, shopping facilities
of a minimum of 100,000 square feet, a variety of
cultural and recreational facilities, elementary
school, and some employment opportunities.

Within ten minutes by mass transportation or car must
be major employment opportunities of varying types,
regional shopping facilities of a minimum of 500,000
square feet, high schools and trade schools, a major
regional park.

The community must be designed so as to take full
advantage of natural amenities, existing tree areas,
natural topography, views.

New construction in an existing city must achieve
physical and social continuity with existing con-
struction . 1

Similar sets of criteria could be devised to describe
the working environment, the recreational environment, the
travel environment, the shopping environment and so forth.
These desired responses set constraints on the forms of the
stimuli .

It is important to note that the effect of these
stimuli over time has some important secondary and tertiary
aspects. There is first of all a period of debate on the
stimuli and expected response. There is a period of flux
during which the stimuli are instituted or constructed.
There is a period of reaction and response to the stimuli,
hopefully in the direction expected. These stimuli may
provoke a response that is itself a stimulus to further
response. And lastly, the response may be time lagged,
dampened or amplified beyond the expected. It is important

169

to consider all these considerations in assessing the value
of likely responses.

Of course it is recognized that the separation between
form and quality is artificial as they affect each other in
a manner similar to site selection and building design.
Safdie's criterion that every family should be able to drive
into its kitchen tells us something about form but it is
clear that the quality of that design must be examined.

Considerations of Quality

In the practice of urban design, there exists an
often repeated litany of adjectival calls-to-arms exhorting
the practitioner to excellence. Such terms as color,
texture, grain, lightness, symmetry, proportion, balance,
fitness, size, density, harmony, difference, extension,
contrast, accent, expression, vista and scale are familiar
to the profession.

Unfortunately, there is no formula that combines these
qualities in ways to insure design of high quality. Rather
there are general guidelines for each of them which state
that, in the absence of deliberate discordance for effect,
some combine in ways more pleasing than others. Considered
singly and in combinations, they are known to evoke certain
responses as viewed, used and lived in.

Since the urban planner is interested in evoking
certain responses, however complex or ill-defined they may
be, he needs to be familiar with these relationships,
although on a scale larger than that used in building design.
He must design for the response, for human experience.

Because both the response set and the qualitative
conditions are so complex, urban planning, like architec-
ture and engineering, is a true creative effort. Proficiency
is established through practice and urban planners undergo
internships similar to those of other professions with the
same degree of creativity.

170

The urban planner must have highly sharpened sensibil-
ities to urban life and an intimate and personal knowledge
of the natural and man-made landscape. For this reason,
considerations of design quality begin with a personal and
technical site analysis.

The technical site analysis is relatively straight
foreward and is comprised mainly of base maps and surveys
noted in Chapter III. Simonds (1961) details an excellent
version uf a personal analysis in which the planner gets
the feel of the area, its relationship to its surroundings,
and the character of the area. This character includes the
best views, the poor views, the objectionable views, the
vegetation which should be preserved or removed, off site
nuisances, logical avenues of ingress and egress, the direc-
tion and force of the sun and wind, protection from these
elements or their emphasis as appropriate, natural and
topological features affecting development and the overall
effect of buildings, roads and structures currently in
place .

Site qualities by themselves suggest qualitative
design considerations. Simonds classifies several such
site conditions as the pastoral site, the heavy industrial
site, the site oriented to major vistas, the windswept site,
the site dominated by the highway, the resort site, the
site oriented to a body of water and many more.

Consider, by way of example, the steeply sloped site.
If it were proposed that this might be a candidate for
residential land use, certain qualitative design considera-
tions come to bear arising from the site itself. Table VI-1
lists the site features and the corresponding design con-
siderations in this case.

It has been noted earlier that there is a large cross-
over of influence between form and the response that a form
tends to evoke. Lynch (1960) has distinguished five such

171

Table Vl-1

Site Features/Design Consideration:
Steeply Sloped Site2

Site Features

Qualitative Design
Considerations

Contours are major
plan factors.

Placing of plan elements
parallel to contours is
indicated .

2. Areas of equal elevation 2
are narrow bands.

3. Sizeable level areas are 3
nonexistant .

The top of the slope is
most exposed to the
elements .

The essence of slope is
rise and fall.

Perhaps the slope grade
is too steep for auto-
mobile traffic.

Bar and ribbon plan
forms are suggested.

To create such, earth
moving and retaining
walls are suggested.

Perhaps the top should
be developed for its
view and protection of
the slope.

Terraced, split-level,
and multideck schemes
are suggested. Ramps
and steps are indicated.

Access is necessary from
the side.

10.

The pull of gravity is
down .

The slope has a dynamic
landscape quality.

The slope emphasises the
meeting of earth and
air .

A sloping site affords
great interest in view.

10,

Excepting those structures
designed to look daring,
designs must express
stability.

Dynamic plan forms
are indicated.

The land side might
express an anchoring and
the air side fly free.

Artifical landscape
development to create
interest may be
minimized .

172

Table VI -1 , cont .

11. The slope is oriented 11. Plan orientation is
outwards. normally outward and down

with necessary protec-
tion from the elements.

12. A sloping site has 12. Water must be intercepted
particular drainage and diverted or allowed
problems. to pass under and

through.

13. A slope brings out many 13. The play of running
desireable qualities of water is a plan opport-
water. unity.

173

forms and has proposed that they serve to define the
imagery of the city as experienced.

One such response is evoked by pathways. These are
the channels along which people move and are comprised of
walkways, streets, transit lines, canals, escalators,
elevators and the like. They can further be grouped into
networks, major ones for the street system, minor ones
for the neighborhood, and micro ones for the avenues of
ingress and egress of a facility. Structures and Jandscape
along the path give it identity. Paths have qualities of
importance, proximity, activity, direction, continuity,
motion and scale.

Another response is evoked by edges. These are the
linear boundaries of different parts of districts of the
city or of the city itself. Edges have the qualities of
penetrability or impenetrability, disruption of continuity,
visual impact and limit.

As opposed to the linear qualities of paths and edges,
districts evoke areal responses. Districts are areas of
uniformity of interest, sometimes poorly defined however.
Examples are uptown, downtown, the CBD , residential areas,
industrial areas, the "Near North Side", the "Back of the
Yards", "The Block", the'Vieux Carre", and so forth.
Depending on their degree of definition, districts have the
qualities of entry and exit, thematic continuity, and
spatial extent.

Landmarks are places of reference, generally non-
dimensional in nature. They are promient visual images
even though they may be relatively small, as a clock or
a statue. Landmarks have the qualities of singularity of
image, orientation, contrast, prominence, distinction and
identity.

The fifth formal image identified by Lynch is the node.
A node is a center of activity distinguished from a landmark
by its active rather than passive nature. They are the focal

174

points of the city, typically located at the intersections
of major paths. Nodes have the qualities of dynamics,
central ity, interchange, focus, junction and decision.

Lynch suggests that the analysis of such forms and their
qualities, via interpretive studies of the citizens' res-
ponses to them, will enbale the city planner to compose a
composite image of the city. Then design would take the
direction of preserving attractive images, enhancing mediocre
images and changing objectionable images.

Some aspects of the essential mobility of urban life
have been examined. This motion may be controlled by the
urban planner to evoke certain responses such as speed,
direction, and ease of mobility. Simonds has catagorized
a number (if qualitative aspects of design in accordance
with their effect on man.

Man is affected by horizontal motion, for instance-,
because horizontal motion provides efficiency, freedom,
choice of direction, change of direction, stability, control ,
and ease of vision of and in motion. Downward motion has
the qualities of less effort, retreat, refuge, return to
the primitive, nature, confinement, protection, privacy,
economy, simplicity and increased interest in the things of
earth. Upward motion has the qualities of force, exhilaration,
accomplishment, potential, detachment, supremacy, command,
increased concern for safety and visual interest in overhead
planes and the sky.

Man is encouraged to move in logical sequences of
progression, along paths of least resistance, toward that
which pleases, is fitting and wanted, toward change, toward
that which is interesting and curious, towards points of
highest contrast and richest color. He moves toward
exposure, if adventurous; toward order, if tired of con-
fusion; toward confusion, if bored with order; toward pro-
tection, if threatened; and toward objects, areas or spaces
that suit his mood or need.

175

However, man has some degree of difficulty in moving.
Indeed, it has been the technological goal of urban planning,
and urban transportation planning in particular, to ease
this difficulty, generally called the friction of space
(llaig, 1927).

Hawley (1950) noted that the physical pattern of urban
life is largely the result of this friction of space as
manifested in time-cost distance. Actual distance, as it
effects human response, is largely dependent on the techno-
logical developments which overcome the friction of space.
If the technology is such that the time-cost per mile ratio
if high, the accessibility of any one area is small and
that area is therefore limited in its number of potential
uses. If the technology is such that the time-cost per mile
ratio is low, differentiation and specialization of land use
can be high.

Isard (1960) noted that this measure of the friction
of space could include fuel comsumption, the number of
stops, the number of intervening opportunities, and the
social distance defined by factors such as the quality of
information possessed by interacting units, cultural patterns,
and economic and social linkages.

To this concept of the friction of space one may
conveniently add the Simonds qualitative descriptors of
the unpleasant, monotonous, uninteresting, dull, obvious,
undesireable , uninspiring, forbidding, demanding, dangerous,
ugly and unsuitable.

The futility of attempting to consider qualitative
aspects of urban design out of context is fully acknow-
ledged here. The designer must indeed be an artist, working
in the sincere hope that, in the application of his knowledge,
he can provide an environment that is both functional and
aesthetic to the user and beholder. Functionality comes
easier than taste, discrimination, style and balance. It
has been noted earlier that functionality alone is not

176

sufficient. But functionality combined with an insensitive
use of style is not sufficient as well. To use the material
outlined here in such a recipe-like fashion will result in
a design that is not aesthetic but arty, mannered, stylized
and fey.

The question, ultimately, must be begged. The urban
planner must design for the appropriate human experience.
He must be sensitive enough, by way of his own training,
to experience fully and personally an abstract design concept
He must be sensitive enough to vicariously experience the
feelings of those for whom he plans. In addition to being
technical and operational, he must be humanist in philosophy
and temperment, contempletive and universal in interest.
The boldest plans are fired in the crucible of humility.

Operational Considerations
Urban design is so large and complex a problem that
it is helpful to conceive of modi operendi . The various
approaches depend upon the constraints of the problem and
the goals and objectives of the client constituency. The
first general constraint is that the development of a city
occurs over a long period of time. Add to this the fact
that the client constituency changes over time and the design
constraints become at various times changeable, transient,
competing and subject to different emphases. Add to this
the fact that, in most cases, the substance of the plan
deals not with a clear unobstructed plane, but with land
currently in use, with a city currently composed of struc-
tures, people, systems and many planning problems, and the
planner is genuinely challenged.

Spreiregen (1965) has noted several approaches to
this problem. The idea central to all of them is to design
a skeletal outline based on the principles of urban activity
systems, spaces, masses, circulation patterns, growth and
change, urban scale, and the ability of man to comprehend
his surroundings.

177

The skeleton is such that there is ample emphasis and
direction for the proper fleshing in of i t , in due time.
This, of course, is a matter of risk but the changeable
nature and immensity of the problem to begin with preclude
it having a determinate solution.

What part of the skeleton to begin with is a function
of the goals and objectives of the client constituency.
If these goals and objectives reflect the fact that the
constituency is most concerned about aspects of circulation
and accessibility, then the logical place to begin is with
the transportation system. There is no quarrel that the
urban transportation system is one of the primary determin-
ants of urban form and quality. Nor is there argument that
the system must not only satisfy functional constraints,
but that it has socio-economic, political and psychological
effects. These considerations make it a favorite starting
point in urban design.

Closely allied with the transportation system are
various questions of land use. From a design standpoint,
the first problem is to determine what uses to site first.
Again, clues may be found in the goals and objectives of
the client constituency and the primary community function.
These should not normally be in conflict.

If the client constituency demonstrates most concern
for family housing conditions, then the logical place to
begin is with residential land use. In the absence of such
specific direction, the urban planner often begins by con-
sidering the placement of open space. Spreiregen notes that
this is a most flexible position, with open space not only
reserved for use as such, but for possible future development
of residential, commercial, industrial and transportation
uses. A clear distinction needs to be made, however, between
open space reserved for future development and open space
reserved for "non-development", that is, to remain open
space permanently. The latter suffers from the unfortunate

178

quality of always being "in the market" for subsequent pro-
posals and strong justification and support are necessary
to establish permanent open space as a viable and necessary
land use in the public mentality.

Often it is best to first site those land uses that
are the most conceptually constrained, secondly, the next
so, and so forth. Typically, industrial land uses are the
most constrained owing to their need for transportation,
access to employment, juxtaposition to complimentary use
and need for large and integral areas. Another constraint
arises from the protection of other land uses from the
nuisances of industry. If the goals and objectives of the
client constituency and the economic analyses of the planner
demonstrate the need to attract industry, this argument is
greatly strengthened.

Another design emphasis could be one of unifying the
impact of public decisions in the areas of not only trans-
portation facilities, but also to include urban renewal,
the construction of governmental facilities, and the improve-
ment of governmental operations across the whole spectrum
of governmental concern. An area could be designated as
one of intense, cooperative and unified change, so scheduled
and budgeted, with other areas to follow in a priority
according to their need.

Closely allied with this is the design technique of
siting even a single governmental facility or complex, and
the changes, private incentives, and ramifications that occur
within and about the area in question.

Another important design consideration deals with the
integration rather than separation of land uses. Jacobs
(1961) has had a profound effect on the practice of urban
planning by clearly noting that the vibrant and cosmopolitan
life style of the city comes about because of an admixture
of land uses over different times of the day. A familiar
technique is to integrate commercial, residential and

L79

recreational land uses ,-is in Le Corbusier's Marseille Block
and Safdle's Habitat.

Once again it is recognized that many of these con-
siderations lose meaning when discussed outside of the
context of a specific problem. Within this context, even
the same approach is likely to diverge into several alterna-
tives. This is entirely consistent with good planning
practice and many times it becomes difficult to select the
best plan from those that, at the surface at least, appear
equally good. Before proceeding to these concepts of evalua-
tion in the next chapter, this chapter concludes with a
simplified design example based upon the operational considera
tions of demand.

An Example

Consider the hypothetical example of siting two types
of recreational activities, swimming pools and golf courses,
for the residents of three residential areas, each alike
in characteristics germane to the problem. There are no
such facilities currently available and the goals and
objectives of the client constituency reflect the need for
them to the exclusion of all other considerations. There
is no problem associated with the finances necessary to
construct and operate these facilities, be they public or
private in nature.

Admittedly, this problem is simplified to make the
following point: these facilities can be sited on the
basis of demand satisfaction.

Suppose that there are 800 families in each of the
three areas and that, through the use of surveys or analogy
or national averages or any of the other techniques detailed
earlier, the planner can construct demand curves for these
facilities as shown in Figure VI-1 (a).

The abcissa of Figure VI-1 (a) is a measure of the
friction of space, including all the factors earlier detailed

180

o
h-

-z.

or
If

iii

Li.

SWIMMING

FRICTION OF SPACE
(o)

FRICTION OF SPACE
(b)

Figure VI-1
Example Demand Curves, Golf and Swimming

181

that make it difficult or unpleasant to participate. As
might be expected, the curves in VI -I (a) show that t he
families are unwilling to overcome a great friction of
space to go swimming. Reductions in the friction at the
low end result in greatly increased participation until
some limiting maximum is reached.

For golf, on the other hand, the curve demonstrates
that some families have such an "investment" of time, money,
and interest in this activity that they are willing to
overcome large frictions to participate. Conversely,
reducing the friction of space will not materially effect
the level of participation.

if the planner were operating to provide for today's
demand alone, he would only need to know the size of these
facilities in order to site them properly. If the standard
size of a swimming pool were such to accomodate 300 families
and, a golf course, 1600 families, one could proceed.

But let us assume we are also planning for ten years
hence. Suppose the planner forecasts that there will be
then 1000 families in each of the three areas. This is the
new gross demand. But what of the new standards of sat-
isfaction? In prior sections, it was noted that standards
must be forecast as well as demand.

Suppose that the planner feels that people will tend
to swim only if the pool is more accessible than is today
the case. Otherwise, their interests will be such that,
even considering the effect of more leisure time, they will
be diverted to other activities. This is shown as the swim
curve of Figure VI-1 (b), and reflects a change in the
perception of the friction of space.

This results in two design considerations and, quite
possibly, two design alternatives. One involves the
retaining or assuming the same friction of space and designing
a greater number of smaller pools, the greater number result-
ing from the rise of the gross demand and the change in the

182

demand curve from VI -1 (a) to VI -1 (b) . The pools would be
smaller because they would not be accessible to, say 300
families, but to some lesser number because of tbe steepening
of the demand curve. The other design alternative involves
retaining the present size pool, or possibly even increasing
it, and reducing the friction of space or access to the pool
sufficient to utilize its size. In this case, the number of
pools may only go up as a result of the rise in the gross
demand and the siting would revolve about reducing the fric-
tion of space.

Suppose that the planner, in forecasting the golf
demand, feels that the nature of this demand will not change,
but that the percent of participating families will rise
as shown in Figure VI- 1 (b). Suppose he feels too that the
rules of play will not change and that his current standard
Ls applicable. Then his problem is much simpler than that
with the swimming pools and he need only plan for gross
demand factored for increased participation. The location
of the one or more golf courses can be based upon con-
siderations other than the friction of space. The demand
function for golf closely approximates those constructed
for recreational boating and camping in this respect.

The overall solution to the problem (no matter which
of the swimming pool alternatives is deemed better) is to
locate these facilities such that they satisfy the forecasted
net demand according to the forecasted demand curves. These
curves describe a surface, of course, radiating outward in
all directions from one ordinate (at the facility) over an
abcissa plane (the land surface). The swimming demand surface
undulates as the falling surface graient from one pool
intersects the rising surface gradient of a second pool as
it is approached. The golf demand surface hardly undulates
at all.

The undulations are not a function of distance but of
the friction of space. If, for instance, a pool abutted some

1 H*3

physical, social, economic, or political obstacle which
greatly added to the friction of space from that direction,
residents near that pool on the other side of that obstacle
may find a further (in distance) pool to be nearer (in
overcoming friction). Through the examination of this
demand surface then, the planner can properly site the
swimming pools.

Summary
The problem faced by the planner in urban design is to
provide programs and facilities that will evoke certain
human responses when used. The nature of these responses
is largely determined by the client constituency. These
responses to facility or program demands are accompl ished
through the professional education and experience of the
planner, coupled with a highly empathic sense of what is
not only functional but also fitting.

Notes

1. After Moshe Safdie, Beyond Habitat, pp. 158-163.

2. After J. 0. Simonds, Landscape Architecture: The
Shaping of Man's Natural Environment, pp . 62-63 .

184

CHAPTER VII
EVALUATION

This chapter discusses the concepts of urban plan
evaluation with the implicit notion that these concepts are
used in decision making. It specifically addresses the
means of evaluating alternative plans that are rather fully
developed. It is recognized that, within the planning
process to this point, much evaluation has already been
made; that decisions arising from such evaluations have
occurred from the start.

The fact that the substance of this chapter affects
earlier phases of the planning process is not a fa Lai defect.
This is just another example of the point already made that
urban planning is cyclical and iterative with feedforeward
and feedback from each phase. Indeed, it is not uncommon to
design staged or nested evaluations within the process to
accomodate this.

At each of these stages, or perhaps only at this one
should the planning permit, the urban planner needs to
consult with the decision maker to pursue one alternative
among those considered feasible to that point. From this
"short list", one alternative is selected as being prefer-
able to the rest, the decision made, planning or implementary
effort consolidated, and all resources are then directed
foreward along a single path.

Normally, many such consultations are necessary. Some-
times the decision maker is an individual, sometimes a
group, for various decisions sometimes different individuals
and different groups. All these people participate in the
client constituency and sometimes the client constituency
itself may make the decision.

18'

However the decision maker is identified, it is his
everlasting and sole prerogative to make the decision.
However obdurate and arbitrary it may seem in context, it
is his prerogative and he is not about to relinquish it.
If, on the other hand, he enlists the aid of the urban
planner in evaluating the alternatives open to him, such aid
may take one or several of the forms described here.

As before, the urban planner does not stand alone as
the sole source of evaluative aid. Steger and Lakshmanan
(1968) have noted that the urban planning decision maker
should ideally have access:

to historian, architect, ecologist and anthropologist,

for what articulate human beings have said, and say,

about the quality of their environment;

to sociologists for the application of content analysis;

to opinion pollsters for what people claim they want,

directLy ;

to the econometrician and statistician for measuring

what has and actually is chosen by consumers;

to social scientist for descriptive and normative

models of consumer behavior;

to the social psychologist, for structural and

constrained methods for conducting interviews;

to system analysts, for structured experimental

si tuations ;

to the political scientist and statistician, for

intensive analysis of voting behavior, and for methods

to simulate voting behavior; and,

to public administrators, for improved ways to

ascertain the trade-offs between effects measures

desired by community leadership . L

Steger and Lakshmanan have further detailed a global
solution that takes into account the differentiated effects
over the variables of investments, times, populations,
economies, areas, social indicators and projects. Lt
describes the different response sets of various plans over
the ranges of these variables.

Later in this chapter, various operational evaluative
techniques will be detailed, beginning with the most simple
and proceeding along a continuum to those that approximate
this global conceptual solution. Before this however, tlie

186

conceptual model of urban planning activity will be examined
to elaborate on each of these variables.

The Conceptual Model of the Evaluation Phase
Consider Figure VII-1. It shows the conceptual model
of planning activity developed to this point, emphasizing
the evaluation phase. Sociologists and political scientists
have long been interested in the general question: "Who
governs, where, when, why, how and to what effect?" These
considerations are reviewed within the context of the model .

Substantive Scope

The substantive scope axis reflects and measures the
range of issues (Bolan, 1969) or outputs (Clark, 1968)
associated with the evaluation of alternative urban plans.

Bolan hypothesizes that if the issues are such that
the consequences of action are easily predictable, if the
action is easily accomplished, and if the issues are gen-
erally congruent with the social values of the client con-
stituency, more favorable evaluation of the issues can be
expected than otherwise. If there is minimal conflict over
the ideological content of an alternative, it will tend to
be evaluated higher than one with social values less widely
held. If many people are intensively affected by the alterna-
tive, it will generally tend to be evaluated lower than one
with a less comprehensive effect in both distribution and
degree of influence.

Another issue attribute concerns its flexibility. An
irreversible alternative will generally be evaluated lower
than one which permits modification or abandonment altogether.
If the implementary and programming action for an alternative
would require complex and coordinated action by many agencies,
it will tend to be evaluated lower than an alternative with
a single focus and manager. It is widely recognized that
there is a tendency to procrastination involving alternatives

187

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with perceived high risk and uncertain consequences.
Abstract and sophisticated alternatives have a built-in
bias toward rejection owing to the relative difficulty of
communication vis a vis simpler alternatives.

Although it is comforting to see propositions such as
these recognized by sociologists and political scientists,
their content should come as no surprise to anyone who has
attempted to manage a program. With any issue there is
some educative and motivative effort, and as the program
increases in complexity and sensitivity, as is typical of
those in the urban aegis, that effort must be redoubled.
The substantive scope axis of the conceptual model provides
a rough measure of the intensity of education and motivation
as precursors to evaluation. As the substantive scope is
more and more narrowly defined, less such effort is generally
required.

Areal Scope
Bolan terms areal scope attributes as those influencing
the decision field. This field may be considered as com-
prising attributes of the evaluative environment and attri-
butes of the evaluating unit or agency. An evaluation by a
focused decision center and competent and articulated
bureaucracy is more likely to provoke a decision than an
evaluation carried out where these attributes are diminished.
Clark notes that faster and more direct evaluations are
likely in an environment with large demands for governmental
activities and correspondingly large bureaucracies, large
political parties and full time political roles. The
political party serves as an informal integrating mechanism
to implement social action. This applies also to the labor
movement which in less intense organization decentralizes
the decision making structure but which, when intensively
organized, has the opposite effect.

189

Without these and other such integrative mechanisms,
increasing horizontal and vertical differentiation in a
community will result in greater differentiation hetween
potential elites and more decentralized evaluation of
alternatives. This, in turn, makes evaluation less predic-
table and tends to dilute the effect of dominent publics of
the client constituency.

Differentiation of publics is a reflection of the
degree of homogeneity of the client constituency. Bolan
notes that the more homogeneous and free of political and
social tradition that a client constituency may be, the
more likely will be common evaluations. Conversely, a
heterogeneous tradition-laden client constituency may tend
to indecision unless one of the publics has a clear
dominence over the others.

The power base of the agency or individual making the
evaluation has an effect on the evaluation. If the power
base is stable and unthreatened or obscure, favorable action
is more likely than if the evaluative unit is challenged
or continuously accountable. Thus appointed bodies, or
those with a long term of office, are more likely to decide
a difficult issue than short term elected bodies. Bolan
continues that an evaluative body that is highly cohesive,
that sees itself in a position of high status and narrowly
focused areas of responsibility is more prone to evaluative
action than a body seen as less important and with no clear
mandate other than that of comprehensiveness.

These attributes are characteristic of the areal scope
axis of the conceptual model in the sense that the client
constituency is a function of that same axis. Whether the
planner is dealing with a group of states or cities or a
group of families or individuals, the jurisdictional nature
and the degree of authority of the client constituency and
specifically, the mandates perceived by the decision makers,
affect the evaluation of alternative proposals.

190

Procedural Scope
The procedural scope axis of the conceptual model of
planning activity is of most interest to this work hecause
it is here? that the most clear conceptual measures can he
taken of the remaining three sets of variables outlined by
Bo Ian ; evaluation steps, evaluation roles and evaluation
strategies. Clark formulates two procedural generalities
that summarize this work. First, as a function gains
importance in a community, the community members from the
sector performing that function will have an increased
sway over the nature and direction of evaluation, and
decision making. Secondly, as the number and value of the
resources available to a sector increase, that sector will
have similar increased influence.

Evaluation steps for communal evaluation and decision
making are the same as those in the classical model of
individual behavior. Some stimulus, perhaps external, brings
into attention some need or opportunity deemed desirable.
As time and other resources permit, alternative means of
satisfying this need or seizing this opportunity are formu-
lated. Again, as time and resources permit, each of the
identified alternates is examined for costs, benefits and
feasibility. The best such alternative is then acted upon
or not .

Evaluation roles measure the specialization and dimen-
sion of each actor's ability to marshall the most resources,
to occupy favorable positions in the evaluative and decision
making structure, to negotiate with skill, and to generally
influence the behavior of others. Some of the specialized
roles in the context of urban plan evaluation are the critic,
the initiator, the technical expert, the analyst, the social-
emotional expert, the strategist, the organizer, the advocate,
the arbiter, the propagandist, and many more including the
planner himself. The dimension of each of these roles is a
measure of each actor's motivation, opportunity and personal
skills .

Evaluation strategies, according to Bolan, are
reflections of both the nature of the planning and the nature
of the programming proposed to execute the plan. If the
planning was done by an agency or individual attached to a
center of power, it will have a greater influence than that
planned by independent or advisory agencies or individuals.
Incremental and opportunistic planning tends to be evaluated
higher than the classic grand comprehensive planning, owing
partially at least to the previously discussed problems of
interdependence, coordination and complexity. Planning
dealing with immediate or short range objectives and having
a narrowly constrained influence will tend to be evaluated
higher than long term, goal oriented planning.

As for programming, plans that envision moderate to
small redistribution of resources, minor changes in behavior
both on the individual and aggregate level, and minor
changes in institutions and organizations have a built-in
favorable bias over programming actions requiring massive such
changes .

Within the conceptual model then, the planner should
not arbitrarily propose an evaluative procedure. Rather any
such procedure must necessarily be tailored to the actors
involved, to identify them as they themselves change through
the evaluative steps, and to recognize that alternative
planning strategies may be necessary to reach each of them
in turn.

Summary
There is nothing particularly Machiavellian in recog-
nizing that there are facets of evaluation outside of the
substance of an alternative, and in maneuvering to ameliorate
their consequences, as long as the planner remains pro-
fessionally disinterested in the eventual outcome of the
evaluation. In this way , each alternative comes closer U>
being judged on its merits rather than through some of the
procedural bias outlined here.

192

Evaluation is by its nature a series of personal
preference decisions, made somewhat less so by being firmly
grounded in scientific analysis with a recognition of bias.
This tends to make the evaluation more univeral, which is
an attribute much to be desired when the evaluator speaks
for a client constituency.

There is no denying that evaluation of urban planning
alternatives is extraordinarily complex. Returning to the
Steger and Lakshmanan model, it is seen that not only must
the urban planner be concerned with the variables of invest-
ments, times, populations, economies, areas, social indicators
and projects, but he must also understand (and make known to
the decision makers) the conditions under which each of these
is valued and the extent to which that valuation is a func-
tion of the variables themselves, their interdependence and
externalities .

Some plan aspect may be judged utile; but to whom?
Why? Where? When? To what effect? Some plan aspect may
be judged costly. The same questions must be addressed.
This plan aspect may be utile to one sector, costly to another,
and indifferent to a third. Is there a balance of costs and
utilities to each sector? Should there be?

The plan alternative was designed to evoke a set of
responses. In evaluating it, the planner and decision maker
must be aware of the distribution and differentiation of
that set.

Evaluation Techniques
As has been the pattern in previous chapters of this
work, the discussion now turns to operational considerations
of evaluation, beginning with those simpler in concept and
proceeding along a continuum to those that approach the
conceptual Steger and Lakshmanan model. As a general
comment, the use of any of these operational techniques is
partially a function of the resources available for the

1.9 'J

planning effort and the prior phases of planning. Few, if
any of these can be artitrarily applied to a planning process
without the necessary organizational, inventory, analysis
and forecasted precursors. The study design must take into
consideration the probable evaluative techniques to be used
some months hence.

Intuitive Methods

The simplest and most direct evaluative methods are
those based on intuition. The decision makers select their
preferences from among the alternatives open to them seem-
ingly without analysis, drawing intuitive guidance from their
own experience. As outlined earlier, this is their pre-
rogative and, once taken, the discussion is closed. There
is little the planner can do but acquiesce.

There is nothing necessarily wrong in this method a s
long as three conditions are met. First, the alternatives
prepared by the planner must each be viable and not, as may
occasionally be the case, consist of one or two viahle
alternatives with the remainder being "straw men". Indeed
the providing of non-viable alternatives to the decision
maker is non-professional behavior and implies decision
making by the planner, a violation of his advisory authority.
All the alternatives considered should be feasible and the
choice of any should be a matter of relative preference, not
rightness or wrongness. The second condition follows from the
first, that while the planner may indeed harbor personal
preferences he should remain professionally disinterested
in the outcome. Third, the client constituency should have
such faith and trust in the decision makers that the decision
makers need not have to analytically defend their prefer-
ences .

The most seldom met of these conditions is the third.
There is also no a priori reason to catagorize decision
makers as so naive that they will consciously ignore the

194

manifold difficulties of evaluation of urban alternatives.
Accordingly, some type of more open if not more rational
analysis is usually employed.

Monetary Valuation Methods

A very widely used measure of utility is monetary
valuation. All benefits and costs are reduced to a monetary
value, dollars in this discussion, to compare future flows
of benefits and costs over a specified time frame. The
general objective is to establish the probable net return
for each of the competing alternatives or, conversely,
determine the most economical alternative producing a
specified minimum net return.

The dollar valuing of costs and benefits is acknow-
ledged to be frought with danger, but it also very con-
veniently meshes with administrative procedures and common
cultural values. On a micro level, the question of how much
an individual might be willing to pay for an urban service-
is answered every day. In both the private and publ ic
sectors, the one document that ties all facets of a Life
style together is the budget. Further, in the private
sector, nearly all entrepreneurial decisions are based on
the expected monetary return, and this exerts a large cross-
over influence on the public sector.

There is no lack of literature on the general subject
of engineering economics with the unfortunate side effect
of a multiplicity of terms. The convention maintained here
is from Winfrey (1969) and the material follows from his
work.

The equivalent uniform annual cost method disregards
benefits and combines all investment costs and all operating
costs into a single annual figure. This annual figure is
equal to all costs associated with the alternative if such
costs were distributed equally over the economic life of the
alternative. Residual or terminal values at the end of the

195

economic life -ire treated as negative capital costs. This
method assumes non-valuable and equal benefits will accrue
from each of the competing alternatives. This assumption
may approximate the real situation in only a very limited
scenario .

The present worth of costs method again disregards
differentiated benefits and combines all costs into a single
figure, the value of which is the money necessary at time
zero to finance the project over its economic life. This
value can be directly converted to the equivalent uniform
annual cost by multiplying it by the appropriate capital
recovery factor. The present worth of costs method is
likewise limited by the assumption of equal and non-valuable
benefits among the competing alternatives.

The equivalent uniform annual net return method combines
all benefits into a single annual figure which is added to
the negative equivalent uniform annual cost. The alternative
having the most positive equivalent annual net return is
the one preferred. The main assumption in this method is
that the alternatives each produce an annual benefit that
can lie dollar valued. A minimum attractive rate of return
is used in the calculations so that as soon as the net answer
becomes positive, the alternative will be earning a rate of
return more than this specified minimum. Since the benefits
are valued, they do not have to be equal among competing
alternatives .

The net present value method compares the present
value of both costs and benefits and is the same in principle
as the present worth of costs method. Whereas the methods
outlined so far call for comparisons among competing alterna-
tives, this method can compare alternatives to the present
value of doing nothing, the null alternative. The assump-
tion is that the money is currently earning a minimum accep-
table rate of return. When the calculated net present value
is positive, the alternative will earn at a rate higher than
that currently.

196

The benefit/cost ratio method provides a ratio of the
equivalent uniform annual benefit to the equivalent uniform
annual cost. The present worths of benefits and costs can
be used in ratio form as well. A ratio greater than one
exceeds the minimum acceptable rate of return used in the
calculations and the alternative with the highest ratio may
be preferred. More typically the alternative that provides
the greatest increase in the benefit-cost ratio is preferred.
The use of a ratio masks the absolute values of the costs
and benefits and may obfiscate considerations of magnitude.
The benefit/cost ratio method allows for the differentiation
of benefactors and beneficiaries and has been widely used in
the public sector for this reason. Some discussion, outside
the scope of this work, has centered about whether annual
operative costs are a negative benefit (and thus in the
numerator) or a cost (and thus in the denominator). Winfrey
holds that because the objective of the analysis is to
indicate an investment profitability, because of consistency
with other methods, and because of general cost accounting
procedures, the former position is most sound. For the
same reasons, the terminal value factor should be placed as
a deductive in the denominator.

The rate of return method identifies that discounl rate
which will equate the negative cash flows or costs to the
positive cash flows or benefits. The alternative with the
highest rate of return is preferred. There are no restric-
tive assumptions as to the equality of benefits among alterna-
tives as long, of course, as they can be monetarily valued.
Alternatives can be compared to each other or to the null
alternative. The rate of return method yields a direct
measure of the profitability of an alternative that may be
more meaningful than the benefit/cost ratio in some applica-
tions .

The six economic models of evaluation described here
become somewhat mechanically limited as any of the following

197

factors become significant; alternatives with unequal
economic Lives, reversals in the direction of cash flows,
Fluctuation in the magnitude of cash flows over time and rates
of reinvestment. There are, however, procedures and assump-
tions which can be used to accomodate these considerations.
The models could also be sensitive to changes in the terminal
values of the alternatives, to changes in the length of the
analysis period, and to changes in the discount rate. Cer-
tainly good procedure would call for sensitivity analyses
of these factors.

Of course, the overriding burden of these methods of
economic analysis is not on the methods so much as on their
input data, the dollar valuation of costs and benefits.
Hill (1968) has noted that by the very indivisible nature of
some collective social benefits there is no market by which
to measure or value them. There are indeed some social
benefits that are valued because they are produced privately
and marketed; there are some that are never marketed but may
be subject to monetary valuation; but there are many more
that are simply outside the scope of monetary valuation.
Although some recognition is given these intangibles, Hill
suggests that the net effect of economic analyses alone is
to automatically enhance the importance of effects that can
be monetarily valued to the detriment of the effects that
cannot. This may be a reversal of the true order of things.

One way out of this dilemma might be to consider what
might be called second order market effects. If, for
example, real property appraisal were a more exact science,
and if property values could be considered to reflect social
effects not otherwise monetarily valued, perhaps such
appraisals of the effects of each alternative could aid in
distinguishing among them by imputing the market. The
values thereby imputed could then be used in economic
analyses. This approach seems to be of most immediate use
in evaluating alternative land use plans.

198

More likely than not however, economic evaluation
methods will not alone suffice to properly judge urhan
planning alternatives.

Social Accounts Valuation Methods
Litchfield (1964) has proposed and used a system of
social accounts to measure the costs and benefits of urban
planning alternatives. The costs and benefits so identified
need not necessarily be included in the overall measure of
economic efficiency. Sectors of producers and sectors of
consumers are identified and for each sector he forecasts
the costs or benefits that will accrue under each alterna-
tive. The values given these costs and benefits may be
monetary, they may be numerical values in non-monetary
terms, or they may be intuitively valued in descriptive
terms. For each alternative, a complete set of social
accounts is constructed which Litchfield terms the planning
balance sheet. With the use of this balance sheet the
decision maker has a firmer base from which to compare
tangibles with intangibles, the incidence of costs and
benefits over different sectors if brought to light, and
those design elements that are high in cost and low in
benefit may be identified.

In discussing this technique, Hill recognizes that it
is a step foreward along the evaluative continuum from
strict economic methods but notes that the planner's evalua-
tion of the intangibles is groundless if it is made without
reference to the goals and objectives of the client con-
stituency. Benefits and costs are not necessarily absolute
but have a relative and instrumental value defined by these
goals and objectives. To maximize some benefit in the
ab s t rac t is mean ing less.

Still in the absence of resources for methods still
further along the continuum, the construction of a set of
social accounts is an improvement over purely economic
analyses.

199

Utility Value Methods

The concept of utility measures has been introduced
in Chapter I in the context of measuring the preferences of
the community for goals and ohjectives. Rased upon these
measures of preference, weights could be assigned to each
goal .'ind objective to approximate the value system of all
or portions of the client constituency. Fishburn (1967)
has summarized twenty-four mathematical techniques for esti-
mating additive utilities and three such were described in
Chapter I, ranking, rating, and a method of successive
comparisons .

Suppose urban planning alternatives could be assigned
such utilities; each utility being defined as the sum of
the cost utilities (negative) and the benefit utilities
(positive) for each alternate plan under a specific set of
external conditions or states of nature. If such utilities
could be assigned, the results could be incorporated into a
payoff matrix as shown below. A's designate alternates;
U's designate additive utilities; and N's designate states
of nature.

Table VII-1
Conceptual Payoff Matrix

N.
1

ull

U12

U13

U21

U22

U23

u2J

U31

U32

U33

u3j

Uil

Ui2

u.3

u. .

200

Given a payoff matrix, there are several well known
operations research techniques Cor evaluating the alternatives
and selecting the hest (Miller and Starr, 1960). If the
probabilities of occurrance are known, the best strategy
;s the one that maximizes the expected value, EV , where:

RV. = <~^, U. .P. for n states of nature, each with

J = 1
a probability of occurrance, P..

If the probabilities of occurrance of the states of
nature are unknown, there is no one best criterion for
selecting an alternative. There are instead several such
criteria, the selection of which depends to a large degree
upon the policies and attitudes of the decision makers.

The Wald maximin criterion suggests that the decision
maker should always be pessimistic and select the alterna-
tive with the largest minimum utility, the maximum minimum
or maxim in.

The Hurwicz maximax criterion suggests that the decision
maker should always be optimistic and select the alternative
with the largest maximum utility, the maximum maximum or
maximax .

The sensitivity of the decision to the range of criteria
between the maximin and the maximax is easily investigated by
synthesizing probabilities on the states of nature. This
could result in a coefficient of optimism which approximates
the expected value criterion.

The Savage minimax criterion suggests that the decision
maker should select that alternative which will minimize
the regret he may feel having chosen an alternative and then
discovering which state of nature will occur. Regret is
measured by the difference between the maximum utility and
all others under each state of nature. The decision maker
then selects the alternative with the minimum largest regret,
the minimum maximum or minimax.

201

Under all these criteria the probabilities of the states
of nature were unknown, yet the choice of criterion allows
the decision maker to favor the probability of good or bad
outcomes depending upon his personality, the stakes at
hand and the environment of the decision.

Actually the Bayes' hypothesis would demand that the
states of nature be explicitly considered equiprohable . In
that case, for n states of nature, the best alternative is
the one with the highest expected value, the probability
of each state of nature being 1 /n .

Goal Achievement Methods

The utility of a particular planning alternative only
gains meaning in relation to a set of planning goals and
objectives. The nature of the use of goals and objectives
developed at the outset of the planning process has been
amplified in every phase of the process to this point. It
is fitting that this feedforeward should continue through the
evaluation phase.

Hill (1968) has proposed the construction of a goals-
achievement matrix for each planning alternative under
consideration, conceptually shown in Table VI I -2 .

0(* >,Cj >U anc* & are goal statements and 2, 3, 5 and 4
are their respective weights which could be determined in a
manner described in Chapter I. The incidence column lists
those groups of people, institutions, economies or establish-
ments that are affected by the alternative. A relative
weight is determined for each group for each goal. Hill
does not specify the manner of this determination. The
letters A, B, C ... are the costs and benefits accruing to
each group measured by each goal. They may be in monetary
units, utiles, or descriptors. A dash (-) indicates that no
cost or benefit to a group would occur if that plan were,
implemented. For some of the goals, jr indicates the

202

Table VII-2

The Goals Achievement Matrix'

fit /3

Goal description:

Relative weight: 2 ' 3

Relative Relative

incidence weight Costs Benefits weight Costs Benefits

Group a 1 A D 5 E

Group b 3 H ~\ 4 - R

Group c 1 L > J 3 S

Group d 2 - ) 2

Group e 1 K 1

Relative weight: 5 4

Goal description

Relative Relative

Incidence weight Costs Benefits weight Costs Benefits

Group a 1 \ N

Group b 2

Group c 3

Group d 4

Group e 4

£ £

203

summation of their effects may be valid. Hill also notes
that ranges of costs or benefits could be specified to
bracket those which are uncertain. Braces indicate that
some costs or benefits are indivisible among the braced
groups. Among the alternatives, the preferred is the one
whose matrix demonstrates the highest goals achievement
index .

This index may be intuitively arrived at, with the
greatest benefit of the goals achievement matrix being
merely the surfacing of the complexity of the intuitive
interpretation. On an ordinal basis, a simple measurement
of -1, 0, +1 could be used to describe a decrease in goal
achievement, no effect on goal achievement, or an increase
in goal achievement, respectively. On a ratio basis, more
complete information could be imputed to the model, with the
attendant risk of the choice of units and the masking of
considerations of magnitude.

Hill recognizes that the goals achievement index,
however arrived at, is difficult for the decision maker to
digest. There may be no single index at all in contrast
to that of, say, the economic efficiency of earlier described
methods .

Schimpeler (1967) has proposed two evaluative decision

models based upon the measurement of goals achievement.

Referring back to Chapter I , assume that a set of community

goals and objectives has been developed, G. , j - 1 , 2 , 3

... n; and for each G. a numerical utility value has been

J
assigned, U., j = 1, 2, 3 ... n,

= 1.
J

j = 1
Schimpeler proposes that a group of professionals
associated with urban planning be assembled to consider the
alternative plans. Without knowledge of the values of the

204

client constituency, U. for each G. , they are instructed to
render dispassionate professional judgments as to the prob-
ability that a given alternative plan will affect each goal
or objective, G.. A modification of the Schimpeler
techniques would require that, if there are i alternative
plans, this effectiveness measure, e.., would be 1 if objec-
tive i is assured under alternative i. An e.. of 0 implies
that alternative i has no effect on objective j. An e.. of
-1 means it is practically impossible to achieve objective

j with alternative i. Values of e.. between 1 and -1

ij
reflect this professional judgment of the probability of

effectivness and the degree of that effectiveness of each

alternative-goal combination.

The result is an effectiveness matrix which, when

multiplied by the value matrix for the goals and objectives,

yields the cumulative utility, U., of each alternative

plan. Thus;

U . = ^> e. . • u. , where there are i plans and j

j - 1
goals and objectives.

The alternative with the highest cumulative utility
is preferred.

Schimpeler has also developed an extension of his
model to weight the values cf various socio-economic groups
of the total population according to their numerical partici-
pation in that total.

U. - U* + U? + . . . U^ + . . . U?; and

ill i l '

u . e . . , where
J ij '

j = 1
U. = the total utility of alternative i;

205

U. = the utility of alternative i as determined by the

kth socio-economic group, k = 1, 2, ... p;
u. = the criterion weight for objective j as determined by

the kth socio-economic group;
e. .= the effectiveness of plan i relative to objective j;

and,
a, = the fraction of the total population represented by

the kth socio-economic group.

Psychological Valuation Methods

This work has repeatedly recognized that the ultimate
charter of the urban planner is to design physically and
programmatically to evoke a desired set of human responses.
Human response to stimulus is the business of the psycholo-
gist and Craik (1968) has proposed that psychological
measures of evaluation may be most appropriate to differenti-
ate among plan alternatives.

If some sort of display of the alternatives could be
presented to the client constituency, psychological measures
of the constituency interpretation, interest and response
to the display could be made. The display may be an actual
real life situation, or simulations of such through audio-
visual methods or three dimensional models.

Craik has classified thirteen methods to measure the
constituency response to such displays. Free descriptions,
adjective checklists, and activity and mood checklists may
be used to measure constituency reaction. A Q-sort method
may be used to measure reactions along a continuum from
"most characteristic" to "least characteristic". A Semantic
Differential Rating or Thematic Potential Analysis are
sensitive to subtle differences in observations. In the
latter, observers would be asked to compose a brief story
about "something which might fittingly happen here".

The use of symbolic equivalents, such as appropriate
metaphors, or multisensory equivalents, such as color

206

sequences or music themes, betray human response perhaps
otherwise hidden.

People make inferences as to the kinds of people that
might live, work or play in selected environments. These
social stereotypic cues offer insights as to their own
relation to the environment, as does empathic role playing.

If the client constituency could describe the effect
upon them if they lived in the environment displayed, this
could be compared to their current self evaluation to
investigate the change in response.

Salesmen are very aware of the effects of viewing time
and viewing sequence on their customers and the most popular
or the most returned to or the longest viewed display mighL
evoke the best responses when considering urban alternatives.

A full discussion of psychological measurement pro-
cedures is far afield of the scope of this work, but the
use of professional psychologists in evaluation of urban
alternatives is an intriguing possibility.

Summary

The previous section has considered some operational or
near operational methods of evaluating alternative urban
plans. If it is clear that there is no global operational
solution to the problem of plan evaluation, it is also
clear that progress toward that solution is being made.

It remains for the urban planner, working in context,
to design evaluative procedures somewhat ad hoc . In addition
to the conceptual and operational constraints outlined here,
he will find, of course, institutional, legal, and resource
constraints affecting his chosen methodology.

Manheim (1962) has conceptually described evaluative
methodologies as necessarily being communicable, repeatable,
comparable and revisable. To be communicable, the process
of evaluation should be explicitly enough defined so that a
second party may follow it. If the process yields the same

207

result from the same inputs, it is repeatable. When different
results can be traced to different inputs, the process is
comparable. Revisability allows for new information or
feedback.

Perhaps the greatest lesson of the discussion is this:
because of the nature of urban planning, evaluation may
always incorporate large elements of intuitive thinking.
Thus, each of the methods outlined here as well as any
combinations, permutations, and extensions that the planner
may devise, can only serve as an aid to intuition and must
never be taken dogmatically. A corollary to this would
state that the evaluation method should affect the evalua-
tion as little as possible, and every parameter should be
examined for its sensitivity.

Boyce, Day and McDonald (1970) have proposed a set of
conceptual guidelines for this ad hoc effort which summar-
izes the material covered above. Any evaluation of an urban
planning alternative should include the following character-
istics: technological and fiscal feasibility; distributional
effects and equity; conservation of economic, social and
natural resources; flexibility to respond to changing condi-
tions; levels of service and systems performance; economic
efficiency; organization of facilities and services; social
interaction and diversity of opportunities; the nature of
cooperative action and joint decision by conflicting groups;
and the distribution of control among the various types
and levels of the public and private sectors.

A Note on Practice
Boyce, Day and McDonald have researched the evaluation
strategies and techniques of several major transportation
and land use planning processes. Their research is beyond
the scope of, but an excellent adjunct to the material
covered in this chapter. Some of their conclusions are
herewith included to demonstrate how various emphases of

208

technique have occurred within the constraints of working
in context.

In researching evaluative methodology, the authors
readily admit to the difficulty of reconstructing evaluations
based upon a wide variety of source material ranging from
precise technical memoranda to furtive verbal allusions.
Many facets were apparently not documented at all.

Five of the major transportation and land use planning
evaluative processes that were summarized by them are those
of Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Milwaukee and the Twin Cities.

The Regional Planning Council of Baltimore had a
legislative mandate to develop and adopt a comprehensive
plan for the region. Boyce eit al_. termed their evaluative
processes and methods to be generally "ad hoc and eclectic".

The Boston Regional Planning Project, and later, the
Eastern Massachusetts Regional Planning Project was a joint
program, rather than a specific agency, instituted to
provide a comprehensive development plan for its region.
The authors termed its evaluative methods and processes to
be "distinctive", articulated, and "to have achieved a more
realistic compromise with diplomacy and planning resources,
than any other(s) currently in operation."

The Chicago Area Cooperative Land Use Transportation
Project was a joint venture of the Northeastern Illinois
Planning Commission and the Chicago Area Transportation
Study. Its charter was to prepare a comprehensive land use,
public facility and natural resource plan for the six
counties of northeastern Illinois. Their evaluative methods
and processes were characterized to be "hasty and austere",
partially due to an unfavorable political climate and budget
limitations, but it was pointed out that "a classical
'narrowing down' process was fully worked through, and concrete
moves were taken to foster public participation and implementa-
tion."4

209

The Milwaukee work was guided by the Southeastern
Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission, composed of members
appointed from area counties. The commission was authorized
to prepare and adopt regional plans for the physical develop-
ment of the area. Boyce e_t a_l. term the Milwaukee effort
"The epitome of a solid and exhaustive study, by all prevail-
ing standards. It was outstanding for the amount, rigor and
relevance of its technical contribution, and for its highly
structured and coherent program..."

The work in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul area was directed
by the Joint Program whose organization structure is described
in Chapter II. It is a form of quasi-metropolitan govern-
ment authorized to deal with problems at that level, and to
coordinate the activities of all public agencies serving the
region. Boyce ejt al_. characterized the operation as
"innovative", "involved", and successful. "Whatever may
have been lost through the accompanying de-emphasis of
technical assessment in favor of intuition, was more than
made up by a demonstration of informed, sensitive and shrewd
diplomacy, and by the crystallization and enunciation of a
refreshing philosophical approach."

Table VII-3 has been prepared to demonstrate the
strategic emphases employed during the five planning processes.
A distinction is made between the examination of a single
alternative and the comparison of two or more alternatives.
Network performance measures refer generally to the techni-
ques of traffic assignment as previously presented in Chapter
V. The "cost of systems" heading refers to the general
criterion of economic efficiency. Public activity systems
are typically utilities, services, public policies regarding
land use and natural resources. Private activity systems
were largely commercial in character, but could include
industrial and residential incentives. Efficiency analysis
refers to the conceptual balancing of costs and benefits.

210

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Effectiveness analysis includes the concept of goal achieve-
ment as an evaluative technique.

Conclusions

The problem of urban planning evaluation is multi-
dimensional and any group of procedures employed by the
planner must give due account to each of these dimensions.

The states of nature and the alternative plans them-
selves are the two dimensions that provide the framework
for the others. With these, the planner must consider the
groups of people (or economic sectors or industrial sectors,
etc.) and their degree of participation, their values, and
the distributional effects of the alternatives over these
groups. He must consider the likely effectiveness of the
alternatives, judged in some way that is relevant.

To these dimensions, the planner must add the social
and cultural effects of evaluation with attendant considera-
tions of roles, strategies and procedures.

All these effects must usually be reduced to measures
of resources to compare costs and benefits and to guide
programming. The best alternatives are those that are the
most profitable, in the grandest sense of the word.

All of this occurs over time, is projected into time,
will operate in future time, and will have effects which
are time dependent.

Considering all these dimensions, the only absolute
of urban plan evaluation is that it is relative.

Notes

1. Wilbur A. Steger and T. R. Lakshmanan , "Plan Evaluation
Methodologies: Some Aspects of Decision Requirements
and Analytical Response," p . 69 .

2. Morris Hill, "A Goals-Achievements Matrix for Kvaluatinj
Alternative Plans," p. 23.

212

3. D. E. Boyce, N. D. Day and C. McDonald, Metropolitan
Plan Making: An Analysis of Experience with the
Preparation and Evaluation of Alternative Land Use and
Transportation Plans, p. 140.

4. Ibid.

5. Ibid.

6. Ibid.

7. Ibid. , p. 6,

213

CHAPTER VIII
IMPLEMENTATION

It would be manifestly inappropriate to conclude this
work without a consideration of the natural and logical
conclusion of the substance of the planning process - the
implementation of the plan, its policies and programs. That
this is difficult however, mirrors the difficulty of plan
implementation itself and the attitude certainly exists to
simply state that such matters are best left to politicians,
to present the fee statement, and to steal quietly into the
night.

Such behavior assumes that a recognizable end of the

planning process has been reached, Even this may not be

the case. Without belaboring the point, it is recognized

that much of planning is continuous and changing. Such

characteristics are among the poorest reasons and even less

of an excuse for the failure of planning to reach sound

conclusions, even though they may be conditional on future

assumed scenarios.

Perin (1967) has noted that an obsessional disorder

is one:

where an individual is incapable of bringing a task
to a conclusion and substitutes continuously repetitive
behavior that assures no ending - stresses that what
is being avoided is acknowledgement of incompetance
for the task at hand, whether real or imagined... The
way in which comprehensive planning work is (sometimes)
organized and undertaken, being pointed as it is
toward the production of one plan, has patently
obsessive characteristics. The 'incompetance' being
masked by endless and diffuse studies may relate
closely to the fact that analytic work in city planning
has yet to make its peace with the tolerable range of
error appropriate to each topic it deals wilh: fear

214

of being found 'wrong' in a recommendation or
'incomplete' in the range of variables studied has
led to an abuse of 'open-endedness ' and 'flexibility'
as important to the planning 'process'. The leap to
action must be made . 1

Throughout this work, the concept of operational ity
has been given a high precedence. In fact, the identifi-
cation of planning as a process presupposes a beginning and
an end. The material presented in earlier chapters has
been oriented not only to operationality alone, hut also
operat ionali ty with direction, purpose and conclusion. II
is hypothesized that such procedural considerat ions as are
outlined here are both an incentive to impLementa t. inn and
a necessary beginning of implementation.

The professional position of the planner relative to
implementation is analogous to that of the planner relative
to evaluation and decision making. As in the case of the
latter, implementation actions are an executive function and
it is the prerogative of the executive to retain such
functions unto himself. If he so chooses, so be it.

Again as in evaluation and decision making however,
the planner should stand ready to aid the executive in these
functions and should make his capabilities and recommenda-
tions known to him. Because programs and plans are some-
times redirected, even unconsciously, in their implementa-
tion; because the specific application of general programs
may sometimes cause injustice; and because simply not every
consequence can be foreseen; Davidoff and Reiner (1962)

pose for the planner the role of an overseer, one
who aids policy makers by observing the direction
programs are given and by suggesting means for re-
directing these toward their intended goals.^

Such a role clearly brings the planner out of an

advisory staff position closer to one of execution. A

secondary benefit of such a role occurs because, faced with

the possibility of thus being hoisted by his own petard,

planners are then likely to give due consideration to the

conditions of operationality.

215

Care must be taken lest such a prospect dampen the

necessary innovation required of the urban planner. Wurster

(1964) has made note of the inherent tempermental conflict

between the skepticism necessary to scientific endeavor and

the emotion necessary to effective reform.

By and large, science can only help to explain why
things are the way they are. Since there are always
good reasons, there is a tendency for good studies
to make current conditions seem inevitable. And
this can lead to a kind of paralysis with respect to
issues which require bold innovation. . . In a field
where there can never be full factual proof of what
ought to be done in the future, moreover, too much
respect for scientific methods means timidity in
making positive inferences and bold judgements. 3

As exampled by these comments, planners have come to
recognize that their professional responsibilities extend
beyond the preparation of technical planning documents.
Planning is a political process as well as a technical
process. The political aspects of the process, although
occurring throughout, are most apparent in the implementa-
tion phase. In the discussion which follows, these aspects
are examined with reference to the conceptual model of
planning activity.

The Conceptual Model of the Implementation Phase
Figure VIII-1 shows the conceptual model of planning
activity, emphasizing the implementation phase.

Substantive Scope
The substantive scope axis of the conceptual model
measures the continuum of implementation actions dealing
with the substance of the plan. Of course, such actions are
themselves a function of many variables, but measured along
this axis they can be said to approximate two largely
inseparable conditions: first, the degree to which the
goals and objectives of the client constituency identified
in the planning process are congruent with those actually

216

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217

held by the client constituency; and second, the degree to
which the identified goals and objectives are fulfilled by
the proposals, balanced against the costs incurred.

This axis is the ultimate measure of the adequacy of
the planning process in identifying and satisfying the value
set of the client constituency, from the most general to the
most specific. At the general end of the continuum, this
axis measures such things as the appropriateness of the
planning approach, the reasonableness and economy of the
process, the morality of the philosophy and, in apologia,
answers the question "Why plan?". As each of these measures
is seen as "good" and "fitting" by the client constituency,
there is an increased tendency to implementation.

Proceeding along the continuum in the direction of
increasing specificity, the value set of the client con-
stituency becomes more refined in definition and narrowed
in application until at the end of the continuum, a specific
design facet is valued. As long as that facet, perhaps the
placement of a chair in a room or a tree in a park, does
not violate any of the higher order goals and objectives
(previously enunciated or perhaps just "felt") it remains a
candidate for acceptance. It is then judged by the narrow
and refined value set. In this case, "I am tired. Does the
chair look comfortable?" or, "I am warm. Can I rest in the
shade of that tree?" As before, as each of these measures
is seen as "good" and "fitting" by the client constituency,
there is an increased tendency to implementation.

Of course the majority of the planner's concern involves
implementation issues of substance between these two extremes.
In response to the need to identify and refine the goals and
objectives of the client constituency along the continuum,
to the need to carry and use these value sets throughout
the planning process, and, in fact, in response to the public
demand to participate in planning, it is appropriate to
formally develop statements of policy against which implemen-
tation actions can be measured. These statements of policy

218

are at once an input, a throughput and an output of the
planning process. The input manifestations have been dis-
cussed in Chapter I; the throughput manifestations have been
developed and used in each succeeding chapter; this chapLer
is concerned with output. -

Statements of policy are a series of documents of
differing refinement as necessary but of consistent value
when considered as a whole. In terms of horizontal inte-
gration, there may be one for implementation of transporta-
tion policy, one for implementation of recreation policy,
one for implementation of land use policy, and so forth.
In terms of vertical integration, there may be one for
industrial land use, industrial land use by type, a specific
industry unique in some characteristic, and that office
responsible for industrial zoning changes.

These statements of policy serve as guides to imple-
mentation. These guides can be used by executives, admin-
istrators, commissioners, department heads, foremen or anyone
in position of planning and programming implementation as a
reference against which to measure his behavior and guide
his decisions.

Goodman and Freund (1968) have called this "policies
planning" and have cited the general benefits which accrue
to it.

1. The essential and uncluttered character of the
policy statements facilitates public under-
standing and public participation in the
planning program.

2. The policy statements permit and encourage
imtimate involvement in the planning process by
elected officials.

3. The policies plan serves as a coordinative device,
bringing together under a single framework the
diverse agencies that may have an impact on
development. In this respect it is particularly
useful in multijurisdictional areas.

219

4. The policies plan provides an element of stability
and consistancy in the planning program in that

it will not be made obsolete by changing conditions

5. The policies plan can be useful as a guide to
legislative bodies responsible for adopting land
use controls, to boards and commissions authorized
to administer the controls, and to the courts
which must judge the reasonableness of the
legislation and the fairness of its administra-
tion. 4

Chapin (1963) has termed this an "urban development
policies instrument" which serves as a "framework for
steering public policy." He defines these instruments as
"a recognized basis of co-ordinated action by all levels
of government in policy decisions relating to urban
development . "

The development of policies statements serves as an
aid to implementation by assuring proper implementation
of the plan at the appropriate level of executive and
administrative action and by establishing a clear lias is for
such implementation decisions.

Areal Scope

Along the areal scope axis of the implementation
phase, the planner is most concerned with problems arising
from the multiplicity of governmental units in the area
affected by the plan. It is not uncommon for a metro-
politan area in the United States to have tens of such units
and, in larger metropolises, hundreds.

Of these, a major fraction may be affected by the plan
and, of more consequence in this discussion, a somewhat
lesser fraction partake in its implementation. Hopefully
one of these units will be designated and clearly recognized
as the lead activity, with the others playing a subordinate
role. Whether or not such a hierarchal organization of
units may exist, if the planner is to participate in the
implementation phase, it will probably require him to

220

coalesce the various units to insure the proper direction
of implementation.

Friend and Jessop (1969) have addressed this question
and have formally defines six classes of problems basic to
multi -agency planning.

The problem of mechanisms for strategic control deals
with connecting and disconnecting those agencies which have
decision fields related to the plan. It includes the means
of regulating and orchestrating these agencies into behavior
consistant with and in the preferred direction of the plan.
Such strategic control mechanisms bear the stresses arising
from different interpretations, methods and procedures from
agency to agency.

Closely allied with this problem of mechanisms is that
of strategic control authority which addresses the question
of where responsibility for control is to be centered, and how
to establish such a nucleus effective and acceptable to the
various agencies. Obviously if a hierarchal arrangement
already exists, these problems are somewhat relieved. An
alternative arrangement is a division of mechanisms of
strategic control to groups of agencies, all functioning
under the same superior authority. In the case of clearly
separate authorities, if mutual adjustment, indirect
pressures, and the threat of public indignation are not
sufficient to coordinate implementation, the need arises
for the formation of yet a superior level of authority.

As implementation proceeds, the patterns of inter-
dependency among agencies are likely to change. The strategic
control authority must have sufficient information at its
disposal to monitor these changes and regulate them with
either anticipatory or remedial action. The problem of
sufficient information deals with the questions of how much
and what kinds of information are sufficient to monitor the
implementation, and whether this information can be gleaned
from already existent channels or if new sources are required.

221

The problem of democratic guidance centers about the
role of the client constituency in the implementation phase.
The planning process so far detailed has included such
participation and care must be taken that those agencies
implementing the plan are accessible to the ideas that
formulated the plan.

Closely allied with this is the continuing problem of
common language among different professions and different
segments of the client constituency.

Of course the ultimate success of a multi-agency
endeavor will depend upon the various motivations of the
participant individuals. Friend and Jessop recognize this
with their final problem, that of sufficient motivation.
The key to success is to assure that the implementation
processes remain acceptable to the individuals and groups
who must operate them and who themselves have private and
career motives which must be satisfied.

The coordination of these implementation agencies by
the executive authority, or the planner working on behalf
of that authority, demands astute managerial and political
ability, the cultivation of which is discussed in these
concluding sections.

Procedural Scope
Planning implementation is not apolitical and the
procedural scope axis provides a conceptual measure of the
planner's necessary behavior in the political arena. While
not unprofessional, such behavior has been traditionally
regarded by some as outside the professional skills of urban
planning. Rabinovitz (1967) has noted this strain between
the role of planning and the role of effectuation . Since,
however, the success of planning is tied to the success of
the political system, the planner must be prepared to marshal
influence in those political systems too weak to support the
necessary implementation. To require such behavior of the

222

planner is to ask him to broaden his concept of professional-
ism to include those skills which he cannot monopolize,
which is contradictory, of course, hence the strain between
roles .

The only solution to this dilemma is to allow such
political behavior to be recognized as a necessary adjunct
to professional planning. This behavior could then include
the preparation of an instrument variously called a political
plan, implementation plan, or tactical plan (Guttenberg,
1964).

Throughout the planning process thus far, discussion
has centered about the goals and objectives of the client
constituency. In its variants and refinements through the
process, this goal orientation has been maintained, modified
by the constraints of operationality . Guttenberg has suggest-
ed that explicit recognition be given to these operational
constraints in the form of a tactical plan, describing the
means necessary to achieve the end state enunciated by the
goals and objectives. The client constituency has already
persuaded itself to the desirability of this end state, so
the purpose of the tactical plan is not to win their assent,
but rather "to overcome the self contradiction involved when
the individual acts publicly and when he acts privately".
This is done by tactically changing the field in which
private decisions are made so that these decisions are more
likely to be oriented toward the public objectives.

A tactical plan is closely related to conventional
capital programming. In the latter case, elements of the
plan are scheduled for implementation based upon anticipated
needs and trends and fiscal constraints. The tactical plan
expands this concept to include those steps that need be
taken not only to anticipate trends, but to control them,
to shape the background market conditions and locational
preferences necessary for the goals and objectives realization.
This would include the possibility of deferring the common

223

order of implementation to allow the private sector to take
advantage of programmed incentives deemed desirable.

Guttenberg notes that such tactical planning requires
the planner to shift his focus from ends to means. Admit-
tedly these means can be relatively impotent and few in
number. But for effective implementation, the planner must
step foreward from his concern with long range objectives and
subject these objectives to the difficult and sometimes
contradictory effects of programming in time. The client
constituency may already be impatient with the perceived
time span between the present status and the status described
by the endorsed goals and objectives. The circuitous route
plotted to achieve such may increase this impatience to
levels unacceptable.

In submitting the tactical plan to the public, then,
the planner is presenting the implications of a goal
plan, and in so doing he is subjecting it to a test
far more critical than if he merely presents the 'bill'
in terms of financial costs. In short, he is testing
the seriousness and durability of the public purpose
itself, for this is what the goal plan represents.
As a result of this confrontation, the public may
decide to rethink its objectives a little more
carefully, perhaps a little more realistically. But
if it retains its objectives, than it is better pre-
pared to realize them because it is forearmed with
knowledge of their implications in time. These con-
siderations alone are enough to justify tactical
thought and planning. 7

Operational Considerations
The conceptual model of the planning process has
served as a means of establishing the need for the planner
to take an active part in implementation. The plan as a
document standing alone may indeed fire the imagination and
enthusiasm of those who witness it, but its implementation
occurs in the realm of politics with the attendani need for
persuasion, incentives, penalities, codification and
legislation, procedures, publicity, power and much supportive
act ivity.

224

This supportive activity is varied and takes its many
forms essentially because the plan imposes some restrictions
on individual behavior for the good of the public-at-large ,
and these individuals need to be convinced of the propriety
of those constraints. Even if this were not the case, man
does not behave with perfect rationality and needs the
fear of penality and the desire for profit to help him
interact with his fellows in ways which are socially accep-
table.

So (1970) has assembled some of the supportive imple-
mentation activity into an illustrative and suggestive
framework of seven catagories : "the classic method,"
gaining and strengthening allies, information, cooperation,
coordination, ad hoc problem solving, and education and
indoctrination. Recognizing that they are not often used
singly, but in combinations, the salient characteristics of
each are as follows.

The classic method of implementation activity regards
the planning authority as the advocate of good planning,
largely independent of the executive authority. This planning
authority is typically a commission composed of the laymen
and public officials. It passes judgment on the propriety
of planning actions and, for those that are deemed desireable,
attempts to convince various executive authorities to imple-
ment them. There is much emphasis on the plan, little
emphasis on implementation, and the power marshalled in this
classic method is advisory in nature.

By gaining and strengthening allies, the planning
authority seeks the active support of its constituent local
executive authorities and increases the capabilities of
these executive authorities to plan for themselves. This
give due recognition to the fact that these executive
authorities have the power to implement, so they might as
well have access to planning expertise commensurate with that
power. For example, the planning authority can sponsor

225

legislation, if necessary, to allow su.ch local executives
to plan; it can provide technical assistance in the planning
effort, either in the form of personnel ona library of
appropriate information. This implementation activity
dilutes somewhat the power of the planning authority in
exchange for the opportunity to inject its own point of
view and provide a visible administrative service.,.

Another supportive activity recognizes that the pro-
vision of planning information may influence development
decisions in both the public and private sectors. This is
an expensive activity, as noted in Chapter [II, and tends
to be regarded as non-operational in that it does not
provide answers, only elaborations of problems.

Planning authorities recognize that other similar
authorities make decisions at equal and greater levels of
government which directly affect their area of concern. By
actively seeking to cooperate in these decisions, the
planning authority can assure once again that its point of
view is considered. Joint projects also expose the planning
authority to the methods and procedures of its sister
activities .

It is unlikely that the planning authority will have
the power to resolve conflicts of implementation among
several governmental agencies. Through the use of methods of
coordination, thus necessarily circumscribed, the planning
authority can, however, provide the forum in which such
conflicts can be aired, and provide a quasi-arbiter role by
surfacing potential conflicts, inconsistancies and duplica-
tive programs.

By ad hoc problem solving, the planning authority can
increase its implementary role by actively seeking to
discover and then solve the problems of most immediate concern
to its constituent executive authorities. Some staff time
is diverted from long range planning to investigate recent
and high impact local developments and thereby be in the
vanguard of knowledge about their effects.

226

The method of implementing plans by indoctrination and
education was the one most frequently cited by planning
authorities in the So study. This includes such activities
as the publication of newsletters, brochures for the layman,
news releases, special conventions and conferences and the
like. The goal of such activity is twofold: to convince
the public and its executive authorities that planning is
necessary; and to convince this same audience that the plans
and policies endorsed by the planning authority are appro-
priate to the problems at hand and should be implemented.
The outstanding feature of all these implementation
actions is that they are based upon persuasion. As such
they depend very strongly upon the personality of the planner
and his acumen as a salesman. It seems not quite fair that
such serious substantive issues as these may very well hinge
upon the personal abilities of the participants rather than
the issues themselves. Such, however, is the nature of
the political system.

Implementation powers beyond persuasion are of two
kinds; those allotted to the planning authority, and those
retained by the executive authority even though possibly
designed by the planning authority.

Of the latter, at once the most familiar and complex
are the implementation activities of zoning, subdivision
regulation and urban renewal. Goodman and Freund (1968)
provide a detailed treatment of each of these, the elabora-
tion of which is outside the scope of this work.

For the purpose of definition, however, zoning may
be considered the legal means of classifying urban land
into districts, each district being then regulated as to
the height and bulk of structures that may be permitted, the
area of land which may be occupied by these structures, the
density of the resident population, and the use permitted
of non-residential structures. It is the legal means of
regulating land use.

227

Subdivision regulation is the legal means of insuring
that urban development occurs in a manner consistent with
the community's goals and objectives. It serves many purposes,
insuring that the subdivision public systems such as streets,
schools, utilities, land ownership and tax records, and other
such systems are both adequate for the subdivision and con-
sistent with those of the city.

Urban renewal is the legal means whereby a city may
use its power of eminent domain to purchase parcels of land
for new development, both public and private. It is
designed to remove areas with urban problems so excessive and
complex that their piecemeal solution is beyond the cap-
ability of less sweeping measures.

Another great power of the executive authority rests
with its own development of municipal real estate. As a
land owner and the developer of public facilities, the
executive authority exerts a great influence on the type and
amount of private development occurring about these fac-
ilities.

Returning to the implementation powers available to
the planning authority, there exist some such powers which,
while not as strong as those available to the executive
function of government, do go beyond those characterized
by persuasion alone.

So, Goodman and Freund, and other authors have made
reference to these powers, generally catagorized as man-
datory referral. With this power, the planning authority
has the legal right to review the development plans of any
agency or private interest having an impact on the area
under its purview. The right of review by the planning
authority is mandatory; its recommendations are not usually
binding however.

Although in this discussion the convention uf So was
used in classifying implementation actions, all such actions
may be considered ad hoc in context. That is to say that,

228

since the implementation powers of urban planning have trad-
itionally been very weak or, when strong, narrowly defined,
any and all such actions are generally marshalled as avail-
able, out of a due respect for the seriousness of the issue.

Meshenberg (1970a) has constructed an outline of the
suitability of environmental features to urban development
and a conceptual measure of their tolerance to use by man.
Of interest to his discussion, he included in this outline
the methods and techniques by which appropriate design
development policies could be implemented. By his own
admission, the outline is neither exhaustive nor specific.
Rather it is intended to portray the range of available
techniques in a manner suggestive to local application.
With this in mind, Table VIII-1 has been adopted from
Meshenberg's work as an example of the ad hoc use of many
implementation techniques, in this case, organized by land
form.

Many, if not all, of the methods of planning imple-
mentation require the expenditure of public monies. If
there is an ultimate test of urban planning, it must
center about the willingness of the executive and the con-
stituency for which he speaks to divert money from the
manifold demands for urban services into that service pro-
vided by planning, including implementation.

In another survey, Meshenberg (1970b) cataloged the
revenues and expenses of governmental planning agencies of
various sized jurisdictions. He established that such
agencies spend about one dollar per year per constituent.
There was a range, of course, from about a half dollar to
more than two dollars. The figures are somewhat troubled
by the lack of consistency from authority to authority as
to what constitutes planning, and by the expected differing
accounting systems.

This money is raised through local taxation procedures
and in many cases, supplanted by federal aid. This chapter
concludes with a short discussion of the latter.

229

Table VIII-1
Methods of Implementing Environmental Policies, by Land Form

Land Form
Land Soil and Topography

Implementation Methods

Wet and

Impervious

Soil

Poor Load
Bearing Soil

Flat Land

Subdivision and sanitary regulations
requiring public water supply and
sewage disposal.

Building code and grading ordinance
prescribing development standards.

Pollution control ordinances
use controls.

land

Low Slope

Moderate
Slope

Steep Slope

Major Ridge
Lines

Valley

Gorge and
Canyon, Glacial
Moraine

Promontory

Grading ordinances limiting terracing,
topsoil and vegetation removal; sub-
division controls setting appropriate
street and utility design standards;
zoning to limit density of development.

Density zoning, grading ordinance
requiring sedimentation control; sub-
division ordinance requiring maintenance
of vegetation and design standards for
streets, possible hillside development
controls.

Public purchase in fee; open space
zoning; scenic or other easements;
reforestation.

Height and density restrictions in
z on ing o rdinanc e s .

Scenic qualities preserved by open space
or agricultural zoning; public purchase;
purchase of easements or development
rights; conservation zoning.

Public purchase; zoning controls to
limit peripheral development

Zoning for high-rise buildings; view
protection regulations.

Abrupt Relief
Changes

Land Rock

Weak Sub-
structure

Minerals

230

Table VIII-1, cont

Public purchase in fee; purchase of
easements .

Zoning for low density and low-rise
development and to exclude areas of
assembly and uses which would create
serious hazards during earthquakes;
building codes prescribing special
construction methods and materials.

Natural resource zoning including per-
formance standards to prevent encroach-
ment; performance bond to ensure site
rehabilitation; preferential assessment

Water

Surface water
and Riparian
Land

Floodland

Wetland, Marsh,
Bog , Swamp

Estuary

Planned unit development controls;
sanitary ordinance prohibiting use of
septic tanks; water quality standards
to restrict discharge of pollutants;
water zoning to separate incompatable
water uses; zoning to restrict shoreline
development to water compatable uses;
public works planning.

Same as for surface and riparian lands;
zoning controls to exclude structures
from the channel and floodway; building
code requiring f loodproof ing of structures;
limitations on grading, filling, dredging
and diking.

Public purchase or purchase of easements;
grading and filling ordinances; agricul-
tural zoning; limitations on surrounding
areas to preserve ecological processes,
conservation zoning.

Increased state control over estuary
and coastal zone use; more stringent
control over dredging, filling, draining;
zoning to restrict development to uses
requiring coastal zone locations;
pollution controls.

231

Table V11I-1, cont

Aquifer Limitations on groundwater withdrawal.

Aquifer Subdivision and sanitary controls

Recharge requiring public sewerage; pollution
Area discharge controls; prevention of

intrusion of salt water or other
groundwater contaminents ; special sewer
construction techniques; limitations on
dredging, stream widening, filling
etc .

Air

Corridor Land use controls restricting locations
of polluters upwind of receptors;
source controls; performance standards
in zoning ordinances.

Vegetation and Wildlife

Woodland Forest conservation controLs; zoning
and subdivision controls limiting
intensity of development, destruction
of vegetation, and setting standards
for improvements; authorization for
limited lumbering.

Wildlife Public purchase; purchase of scenic,
Habitat hunting, fishing easements; zoning

limitations on surrounding areas; very
low density zoning for seasonal cottages
and restrictions on access roads.

Prime Agri- Exclusive agricultural zoning; prefer-

cultural ential farmland assessment.

Land

Pasture Open space zoning where appropriate.

Land

Prairie Public purchase; zoning and other

limitations on surrounding areas.

Cultural and Landscape

Unique Remanent Public purchase; zoning and other
limitations on surrounding areas.

232

Table VIII-1, cont

Scenic Vistas Purchase of easements or development
rights; very low density zoning; open
space or agricultural zoning.

Historical and Public purchase or purchase by civic
Archeological groups; architectural control; historic
Sites area zoning; landmarks commission.

233

A Note on Federal Assistance

In 1967, the Office of the Vice President published
a guide to federal assistance programs. While some of
the programmatic information is dated, the philosophy behind
federal J assistance is not.

Federal assistance is designed to aid local governments
in stimulating and cultivating the local private sector
to perform the required services. The government provides
the climate and opportunity to enable the private sector to
act through the provision of both technical and financial
assistance .

The initiative for such assistance rests with the
local government. It should identify the goals and objectives
of its client constituency, plan to achieve these goals in
an organized and coordinated manner, program the implementa-
tion in a way which is both appropriate and flexible,
manage the implementation effectively and in coordination
with the private sector, and, in short, carry out a planning
and implementation program that is altogether feasible,
appropriate and necessary.

Federal assistance is limited on the whole and well
documented demands can be expected to exceed available
appropriations. Accordingly, even among justified requests,
assistance is parceled out according to various formulas.
A state's share of available funds is generally determined
through the use of both apportionment and matching provisions.
Apportionment formulas specify the proportion of the total
federal grant funds for which each state is eligible. Such
formulas are usually based upon some combined measure of
population, financial ability and need. Matching formulas
specify to what extent participating states must share the
program costs, and can be a ratio fixed from state to state,
or varying, depending upon the ability of each state to
participate .

234

The use of federal assistance adds at least one and in

some cases several levels of program administration. These

levels insure that local program objectives are consistent

with those of the national program and those of the state.

Plans, programs, specifications, contracts, procedures and

administration are all subject to administrative action.

During implementation, regular reports are required on

program status, federal laws and regulations regarding

personnel matters such as the hiring of minorities and the

*
use of a merit system must be observed. Purchasing,

accounting, and contract administration procedures must

be followed. Final review and close out mechanisms may be

made mandatory and, at least at project completion, a

federal audit may be held.

Federal assistance is available in an ever increasing
variety of substantive areas impacting on urban life. In
addition to assistance in the general area of community,
metropolitan and regional planning and development, assistance
is available in the areas of local economic and business
development, transportation, welfare and social services,
health, education and culture, manpower development and
employment assistance, public safety, disaster assistance,
civil defense, land, water and air resources, planning and
development of physical facilities, housing and community
development, public utilities, recreation, service centers
and community buildings.

Information abounds in a great many places regarding
these programs and a search could well begin at the state
agencies dealing in these matters and the regional offices
of the appropriate federal departments.

Summary
This chapter has attempted to trace the difficult and
tortuous path of implementation, first conceptually and then
opera tional 1 y .

235

The planner is seen in a dual role; first the provider
of technical expertise, and second, the political advocate
of proper implementation. In the latter case he must
marshal 1 those tools perceived as available to him, ranging
from discrete policy statements to his own power of
persuasion. He is faced with the difficulties of both the
substance of the plan and the milieus in which it must be
implemented. There are constraints of resources, time,
money, social and bureaucratic systems, procedures, law and
jurisdiction, all of which temper both the plan implementation
cjnd his behavior.

Each of these constraints serves to define and bound
the general concept of operational ity . To plan outside of
this concept is not only useless, but criminally wasteful
of public resources. In assuming the mantle of urban
planning, the planner must also assume this responsibility.

Notes

1. Constance Perin, "A Noiseless Secession from the
Comprehensive Plan," pp. 337-8.

2. Paul Davidoff, and Thomas A. Reiner, "A Choice Theory
of Planning," p. 113.

3. C. B. Wurster, "Introduction", Explorations into Urban
Structure , Melvin M. Webber e_t al . , p~. IT"!

4. William I. Goodman, and Eric C. Freund , eds., Principles
and Practice of Urban Planning, p. 332.

5. F. Stuart Chapin Jr., "Taking Stock of Techniques for
Shaping Urban Growth," p. 81.

6. Albert Z. Guttenberg, "The Tactical Plan", Explorations
into Urban Structure, Melvin M. Webber et a 1 . , p . 199 .

7. Ibid, p. 217.

8. After Michael J. Meshenberg, "Environmental Planning:
1, Environmental Information for Policy Formulation,"
pp. 30-34.

236

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The overriding demonstration of the preceeding discus-
sion is that methodological considerations can be used to
tie together the diverse and numerous aspects of urban
planning. The conceptual model of planning activity is a
suitable framework for tying these methodological considera-
tions together, in both an operational sense and a pedagogic-
sense. In neither sense, however, is the application of
the model exhausted. Urban planning is probably too complex
and ( oo creative to allow for the existence of a universal
methodology. Rather, the use of methodological considerations
as suggested by the model provides for the planner and his
client constituency a sense of direction, an ordered conceptual
procedure and an operational beginning, middle, and end of
the planning process. Such information is presented as
showing the way without being dogmatic.

The theme of operationality is thus stressed because,
creativity notwithstanding, urban planning is so expensive
an undertaking and so clearly in the public trust that every
effort must be made to carry it foreward in an environment
of astute business practice. Considerations of methodology
are thereby focused, and such an approach encourages and
promotes a task oriented operationality which might other-
wise suffer in the face of the many philosophical considera-
tions that are necessary.

Lastly, it is thought that any phase of the planning
process as outlined can never be obviated without making
the process non-operational. To be sure, a phase may be
done by someone else, it may be already done in terms of
some prior effort, it may be deferred, abbreviated or even

237

intuitively arrived at, but it must be addressed somehow and
someway. Any such adjustments are not necessarily fatal
and, when proper] y aligned with conceptual considerations,
are in fact efficient refinements to the theme of operation-
al L t y .

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238

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VITA

258

VITA

Thomas Allan Dames was born in Oak Park, Illinois on
June 30, 1943.

He graduated from Fenwick High School in 1961 and the
United States Naval Academy in 1965. He holds the commission
of Lieutenant, Civil Engineer Corps, United States Navy.

Lieutenant Dames has served at Great Lakes, Illinois,
Phu Bai and Gia Le in the Republic of Vietnam as a Company
Commander in the 133rd Seabees, and Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
His duties have necessitated extensive travel in the Far
East .

He is also a graduate of Purdue University, B.S.C.E.,
1968 and M.S.C.E. in Urban Planning and Engineering, 1968.

Lieutenant Dames holds several American and foreign
military awards, including the Navy Commendation Medal,
the Army Commendation Medal, the Combat Action Ribbon, and
the Republic of Vietnam Technical Service Medal and Civic
Action Medal .

Lieutenant Dames is married to the former Ursula Anne
Roberts of Annandale, Virginia. They have two children,
Thomas Christopher and John Damien.

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