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What  About  the 
Secret  Treaties? 

By  The  Foreign  Editor  of  "THE  NEW  AGE'* 


"I  do  not  agree  that  no  explanations 
of  the  secret  treaties  are  needed.  The 
texts,  however  they  have  been  made 
known  to  us,  are  now  public  knowl- 
edge and  of  public  concern.  Appre- 
hension concerning  their  meaning  is 
perfectly  natural  and  perfectly  legiti- 
mate. Consideration  of  them  is  a 
public  duty." 


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What  About  the 
Secret  Treaties? 


IN  view  of  the  misunderstandings,  some  honest  and  some  not,  that  have 
been  produced  by  the  unofficial  publication  of  certain  secret  treaties 
made  between  this  country  and  several  of  its  Continental  Allies  dur- 
ing the  war,  I  am  venturing  to  inquire  at  some  length  into  their  purpose 
and  character.  I  must  disclaim  at  once  the  possession  of  any  official  or 
secret  information.  My  information  is  such  only  as  is  accessible  to  the 
diligent  student  of  public  affairs ;  and  my  deductions  are  open  to  be  made 
or  questioned  by  any  intelligent  citizen.  My  sole  claim  for  them  is  that, 
at  the  same  time  that  they  are  more  favorable  to  our  statesmen,  they  are 
also  more  probable  than  the  deductions  of  the  pacifists ;  for  whereas  the 
hypotheses  of  the  pacifists  cover  only  a  selection  of  the  facts,  my 
hypotheses  cover  all  the  facts,  or,  at  least,  as  many  as  have  been  brought 
to  public  notice. 

Demand  for  Explanation  Justifiable 

I  may  begin  by  saying  that  I  do  not  agree  that  no  explanations  of 
the  secret  treaties  are  needed.  The  texts  of  the  secret  treaties,  however 
they  have  been  made  known  to  us,  are  now  public  knowledge  and  of  public 
concern.  Apprehension  concerning  their  meaning  is  perfectly  natural  and 
perfectly  legitimate.  Consideration  of  them  is  a  public  duty;  and  I,  cer- 
tainly, have  no  complaint  to  make  of  the  fact  that  the  pacifists  have 
insisted  upon  discussing  them.  On  the  other  hand,  we  must  not  fall  into 
the  error  of  suspecting,  as  the  pacifists  do,  that  because  the  secret  treaties 
require  to  be  explained,  therefore  no  satisfactory  explanation  of  them 
exists,  and  that  all  explanation  is  a  vain  attempt  to  explain  away.  Usu- 
ally when  a  man  "demands  an  explanation"  he  is  looking  for  a  bone 
of  contention  and  means  to  find  one,  meat  or  no  meat  upon  it.  It  is  not 
in  this  mood,  however,  that  we  ought  to  demand  an  explanation  of  the 
secret  treaties,  but  in  the  mood  of  being  hopeful  of  finding  an  explanation 
and  willing  to  accept  a  satisfactory  answer. 

As  I  have  been  able  to  gather  them,  the  main  charges  brought  against 
the  secret  treaties  are  these :  They  are,  or  were  designed  to  be,  secret  ; 
they  propose  to  transfer  territory  from  one  Power  to  another,  without 
regard  to  the  principle  of  no  annexations  and  of  the  self-determination 
of  peoples ;  they  are  inconsistent  with  the  anti-imperialist  and  democratic 
declarations  of  the  Allies  in  the  present  war ;  and,  finally,  and  in  conse- 
quence of  these  defects,  they  are  responsible,  if  not  for  Germany's  initia- 
tion of  the  war,  at  least,  then,  for  Germany's  desperate  prolongation  of 


the  war.  There  are  other  charges  and  suspicions  entertained  in  regard 
to  the  secret  treaties,  for  example,  that  they  betray  an  imperiahzing 
tendency  on  the  part  of  England  and  her  Allies,  or  again,  that  they  are 
designed  to  ruin  the  commerce  of  Germany,  with  the  sole  object  of  bene- 
fiting Allied  trade ;  but  these  apprehensions  will,  I  think,  be  found  to  be 
included  in  the  four  charges  I  have  enumerated;  and  it  is  therefore  to 
these  four  that  I  propose  to  limit  my  replies. 

Why  the  Treaties  Were  Secret 

To  the  first  and  last  of  the  four  it  is  possible  to  return  comparatively 
brief  answers.  In  view  of  the  fact  that  we  were  at  war  with  Germany, 
and,  before  the  first  treaty  was  signed,  had  been  long  enough  (eight 
months)  at  war  with  her  to  take  her  full  measure,  there  is  nothing  to  be 
wondered  at  if  the  terms  of  the  treaties  were  not  disclosed  for  the  infor- 
mation of  her  militarist  rulers.  Moreover,  the  purpose  of  the  treaties 
could  not  but  include,  among  other  objects,  the  object  of  strengthening 
the  alliance  against  Germany  and  of  correspondingly  weakening  Germany, 
being,  as  they  must  in  part  have  been,  proposals  for  a  political  and  diplo- 
matic defense  precisely  similar  in  character  to  the  plans  for  a  joint  mil- 
itary and  naval  defense.  If,  therefore,  it  would  have  been  unwise  (to 
say  the  least  of  it)  to  publish  broadcast  our  military  and  naval  plans,  it 
would  surely  have  been  no  less  unwise  to  publish  broadcast  our  political 
and  diplomatic  plans.  The  secrecy  of  the  treaties,  in  other  words,  was 
enjoined  on  us  by  elementary  policy;  and  it  may  be  pointed  out  that  so 
long  as  there  are  dangerous  autocracies  in  the  world,  the  secrecy  of  even 
the  most  democratic  diplomacy  will  need  to  be  imperative. 

As  for  the  charge  that  the  secret  treaties,  if  they  did  not  induce  Ger- 
many to  begin  the  war,  at  any  rate  provoked  her  into  continuing  it  long 
after  she  might  otherwise  have  ended  it,  I  am  only  surprised  at  the  mod- 
eration of  its  authors.  Why  make  a  reservation  of  the  initiation  of  the 
war  and  confine  the  effect  of  the  secret  treaties  merely  to  prolonging  it? 
By  an  intelligent  anticipation  of  what  the  Allies  were  about  to  agree 
upon,  and  of  what  they  would  plan  together  if  attacked,  Germany  might 
well  have  employed  the  secret  treaties,  even  before  they  came  into  actual 
existence,  as  a  reason  for  declaring  war.  Were  not  the  secret  treaties  in 
the  Allies'  hearts  if  not  on  paper ;  and  must  not  Germany  be  justified 
by  one  means  or  another?  The  truth  is,  however,  that  monstrous  as  it 
would  be  to  regard  the  secret  treaties  as  having  driven  Germany  to  declare 
war,  it  is  equally  ridiculous  to  hold  them  responsible  for  Germany's  con- 
tinuation of  the  war.  Eight  months  of  war,  we  must  remember,  had 
passed  before  a  single  treaty  was  made ;  and  during  that  time  the  most 
obliging  observers  had  failed  to  discover  one  trustworthy  sign  that  Ger- 
many was  prolonging  the  war  for  anything  less  than  an  abounding  con- 
quest. The  only  reasonable  deduction  to  be  made  is  that  Germany  would 
have  prolonged  the  war  to  the  present  moment  and  for  as  long  as  she  has 
hopes  of  victory,  even  if  no  secret  treaty  had  ever  existed.  A  punishment 
you  expect  to  be  able  to  avoid,  if  not  to  turn  upon  the  other  party,  is  no 
deterrent  to  crime. 


The  Functions  of  the  Foreign  Minister 

To  deal  with  the  two  remaining  charges  brought  against  the  secret 
treaties  will  require,  as  a  preliminary,  the  rehearsal  of  a  certain  number 
of  elementary  but  often  forgotten  facts.  It  is  surprising  how  many  people 
criticize  a  Foreign  Minister  without  having  formed  an  exact  idea  of  his 
duties,  and,  still  more,  without  taking  into  account  the  circumstances  in 
which  he  must  perform  them.  Both  considerations  are  essential,  how- 
ever, if  a  just  judgment  is  to  be  passed,  whether  favorable  or  unfavorable, 
on  the  Minister  or  Cabinet  in  question.  Moreover,  it  would  be  as  well 
to  point  out  that  both  the  duty  and  the  circumstances  in  which  a  Foreign 
Minister  is  placed  are  not  by  any  means  of  his  own  creation  or  dependent 
upon  his  own  personal  or  even  party  likes  and  dislikes.  The  duty  of  a 
British  Foreign  Minister  is  defined  in  the  nature  of  his  office ;  and  it  would 
be  the  same  for  Mr.  MacDonald  or  Mr,  Snowden,  let  us  say,  as  it  has 
been  for  Viscount  Grey  or  Mjr.  Balfour.  Similarly,  the  circumstances 
in  which  any  Foreign  Minister  takes  up  his  office  are  a  legacy  not  only 
of  his  immediate  predecessors,  but  of  the  foreign  policies  of  all  the  other 
nations  of  the  world.  His  duty  is  such  and  such,  the  circumstances  given 
are  such  and  such ;  and  it  is  necessary  to  realize  both  facts  in  order  to 
arrive  at  a  judgment  of  his  conduct.  Now  what  is  implied  in  the  offipe 
of  a  British  Foreign  Minister?  What  is  the  duty  he  is  appointed  and 
paid  to  discharge  at  the  risk  of  dismissal?  It  is  high-falutin'  to  pretend 
that  his  immediate  and  only  concern  is  to  bring  heaven  upon  earth,  or  to 
elaborate  international  fraternity  within  the  period  of  his  tenure  of  office. 
I  am  not  affirming  that  these  are  not  noble  objects  of  policy,  or  that  a 
British  Foreign  Minister  ought  not  to  keep  them  in  view  as  his  guiding 
stars.  They  are,  indeed,  the  ultimate  purpose  for  which  the  relative 
purposes  of  temporal  policy  ought  to  exist.  On  the  other  hand,  though 
hitched  to  a  star,  it  is  the  wagon  as  well  as  the  direction  for  which  a 
British  Foreign  Minister  is  officially  responsible ;  and  the  wagon  in  our 
particular  case  is,  in  a  phrase,  the  maintenance  of  the  British  Common- 
wealth. 

Policy  and  the  British  Commonwealth 

People  sometimes  talk  as  if  the  maintenance  of  the  British  Common- 
wealth, or  of  any  other  national  group,  for  that  matter,  were  an  event  of 
nature  and  not  of  policy.  Like  Topsy,  the  British  Commonwealth  is 
supposed  to  have  "growed,"  and  to  owe  its  continuance  to  the  same  mys- 
terious process.  But,  in  truth,  a  nation,  like  all  the  other  works  of  man, 
is  a  creation  of  art,  and,  therefore,  like  all  other  works  of  art,  liable  to 
change  and  decay  with  the  ability  and  temper  of  the  men  who  are  respon- 
sible for  its  maintenance.  History  is  the  record  of  the  fall  as  well  as 
of  the  rise  of  nations.  The  rise  and  maintenance  of  nations  are  the 
result  of  good  policy,  as  their  decline  and  fall  are  the  result  of  bad  pohcy. 

This  being  the  case,  we  have  now  to  inquire  whether  there  are  any 
particular  conditions  upon  which  the  maintenance  of  the  British  Com- 


monwealth  depends ;  to  be  brief,  the  maintenance  of  England,  which  is 
the  keystone  of  the  arch  of  the  Commonwealth.  Is  there  any  particular 
danger  to  be  feared  and  guarded  against  by  any  Foreign  Minister  en- 
trusted with  the  duty  of  his  office?  The  reply  is  that  there  are  several 
and,  perhaps,  many  such  conditions;  but  that  the  chief  of  them  (and, 
in  any  event,  the  one  most  relevant  to  our  present  purpose)  is  the 
maintenance  of  the  "balance  of  power"  on  the  European  Continent.  I 
cannot  conceive  the  state  of  mind  of  any  man,  and,  above  all,  of  any 
Englishman,  who  does  not  appreciate,  when  it  has  once  been  pointed  out 
to  him,  the  importance,  the  vital  importance,  for  this  country  of  preserv- 
ing the  European  "balance  of  power."  It  is  not  the  fact  that  the  pres- 
ervation of  the  balance  of  power  is  a  mere  advantage  to  this  country — 
and,  hence,  to  all  the  ideas  and  ideals  of  which  England  is  the  symbol — 
it  is  a  necessity  of  our  existence.  For  what  is  meant  by  the  preservation 
of  the  balance  of  power  in  Europe  is  nothing  less  than  the  prevention  of 
the  subjection  of  Europe  to  a  single  Power  capable,  at  one  and  the  same 
moment,  of  enslaving  Europe  and  conquering  England.  There  is  really 
nothing  recondite  about  either  the  phrase  or  the  policy  it  stands  for ;  nor 
is  there  any  occasion  for  attributing  its  invention  and  pursuit  to  this  or 
that  Foreign  Minister,  or  to  this  or  that  governing  class.  It  is  the  simple 
expression  of  the  prime  condition  of  the  maintenance  in  a  state  of  inde- 
pendence of  England,  and,  therefore,  of  the  British  Commonwealth ; 
and  since  this  is  the  unchallengeable  fact,  we  may  particularize  the  duty 
of  the  British  Foreign  Minister  as  being  that  of  preventing  the  creation  of 
a  hegemony  or  dominating  Power  in  Europe. 

Were  the  Treaties  Designed  by  hnperialists? 

Before  going  on  to  consider  the  circumstances  in  which,  at  the  out- 
break of  war,  a  British  Foreign  Minister,  any  British  Foreign  Minister, 
was  placed  for  the  performance  of  his  simple  duty  of  maintaining  the 
balance  of  power  in  Europe;  and,  thereafter,  the  steps  actually  taken  to 
maintain  it — which  will  bring  us  to  the  secret  treaties — we  may  glance  at 
the  character  of  the  man  who  was  then  holding  this  office.  Of  all  the 
men,  without  exception,  who  have  held  the  office  of  British  Foreign 
Minister,  it  is  probable  that  the  last  to  be  accused  by  his  countrymen  of 
"imperialism"  (by  which  I  mean  the  will  to  increase  the  power  of  Eng- 
land regardless  of  right  and  wrong,  or  of  the  interests  of  the  rest  of  the 
world)  is  Viscotmt  Grey.  In  addition  to  this,  it  is  to  be  noted  that  the 
Cabinet  to  which  he  belonged  was  a  Liberal  Cabinet,  which  may,  there- 
fore, be  supposed  rather  to  have  aided  and  abetted  his  policy  of  simple 
maintenance  than  to  have  urged  him,  against  his  inclinations,  into  an 
"imperialist"  policy.  Yet,  it  was  Viscount  Grey  who  signed  the  secret 
treaties  on  behalf  of  the  Liberal  Cabinet  of  Mr.  Asquith ;  and  upon  Vis- 
count Grey,  in  consequence,  all  the  charges  brought  against  them  must 
finally  rest.  I  do  not  envy  the  task  our  pacifists  have  set  themselves  in 
bringing  their  charges  of  imperialism  and  all  the  rest  of  it  against  Vis- 
count Grey.  They  are  to  be  pitied  rather  than  condemned  in  their  choice 
of  a  person  on  whom  to  lay  the  responsibility  of  their  suspicions ;  they 


would  have  been  safer  with  any  other  man  than  him.  But,  as  it  is,  their 
case  against  the  secret  treaties  must  stand  or  fall  with  their  case  against 
Viscount  Grey.  If  he  is  not  to  be  convicted  of  the  charges  they  have 
brought  against  the  secret  treaties,  neither  can  the  treaties  themselves  be 
so  convicted.  Nobody,  therefore,  can  charge  them  with  intentional,  or 
even  potential,  imperialism,  who  is  not  prepared  to  prove  Viscount  Grey 
an  intentional  or  unwitting  imperialist.  And  we  have  Prince  Lichnow- 
sky's  memorandum  to  silence  that  charge. 

Maintaining  the  Liberties  of  the  World 

There  is  a  simple  rule  for  those  who  would  understand  the  actions 
of  others,  even  the  most  complicated  and  apparently  contradictory  actions : 
it  is  to  put  yourself  by  imagination  into  their  circumstances.  All  criticism 
of  value,  whether  of  politics,  art  or  men,  whether  favorable  or  unfavor- 
able, presupposes  this  act  of  Christian  charity.  Without  this  "charity," 
everything  else  profiteth  nothing.  Having  defined  the  duty  of  any  British 
Foreign  Minister,  and  having  taken  intO'  account  the  character  of  Vis- 
count Grey,  who  was  our  Foreign  Minister  at  the  moment  when  war 
broke  out,  w^e  have  now  to  consider  what  were  the  circumstances  in 
which  his  principal  duty  was  to  be  discharged.  How,  in  short,  and  under 
what  circumstances,  was  he  to  maintain  the  balance  of  power  in  Europe 
as  a  condition  of  maintaining  the  British  Commonwealth,  and  as  the  more 
remote  but  still  necessary  condition  of  maintaining  the  liberties  of  the 
world?  For  that  the  liberties  of  the  world  do,  in  fact,  depend  on  a  chain 
of  this  kind  is  a  matter  of  demonstration,  though  the  occasion  for  making 
the  demonstration  is  not  the  present. 

The  circumstances  are  too  familiar  to  need  elaboration ;  but  they  must, 
nevertheless,  be  recalled  if  our  argument  is  to  be  followed.  To  premise, 
it  must,  above  all,  be  remembered  that  they  could  not,  in  any  case,  have 
appeared  exactly  as  we  have  now  come  to  realize  them.  When  war 
broke  out,  who  realized  that  it  would  last  four  years,  and  spread  from 
Europe  over  the  whole  world?  Who,  again,  could  estimate  what  would 
prove  to  be  the  strength  of  Germany  or  the  weakness  of  some  of  the 
other  European  nations?  Let  not  wisdom  after  the  event  be  mistaken 
for  wisdom  before  or  in  the  event.  The  most  ignorant  of  us  to-day  knows 
more  than  the  wisest  knew  four  years  ago.  There  were  certain  facts, 
however,  for  a  British  Foreign  Minister  to  go  upon.  There  is  an  etiquette 
of  diplomacy  the  breaches  or  observances  of  which,  while  ceremony  to 
the  general  public,  are  significant  to  experienced  diplomats ;  and  it  needed, 
therefore,  no  special  gift  in  Viscount  Grey,  beyond  the  gift  of  experience, 
to  surmise,  in  fact  to  be  certain,  that  from  the  omission  by  Germany  of 
these  forms  and  observances  in  her  approach  to  and  conduct  of  the  events 
that  brought  about  the  war,  her  action  was  deliberate,  calculated  and 
aggressive.  But  what,  again,  did  this  portend?  To  what  lengths  would 
Germany's  aggression  proceed?  Would  it  be  satisfied  with  the  "punish- 
ment" of  Serbia,  or  with  the  "defense"  against  Russia,  or  with  another 
"lesson"  to  France  ?    Common  knowledge  of  the  psychology  of  Germany 

7 


indicated  that,  exactly  as  in  her  military  tactics  it  is  her  policy  to  make 
a  push  and  to  exploit  what  may  come  of  it,  so  in  diplomacy  her  policy 
would  be  to  cross  the  Rubicon  first  and  to  trust  to  {rightfulness  for  the 
sequel.  And  the  sequel  in  this  case  was  precisely  what  was  to  be  feared 
by  any  British  Foreign  Minister,  for  it  was  precisely  the  establishment 
or  the  attempt  to  establish  a  German  hegemony  of  Europe, 

German  Aims  and  German  Deeds 

It  is  strenuously  affirmed  by  many  people  in  Germany — and  it  appears 
to  be  accepted  as  gospel  in  certain  circles  in  this  country — that  in  entering 
upon  the  war  Ge'rmany  had  no  such  object  in  view  as  the  hegemony  of 
Europe  as  the  means  to  the  domination  of  the  world.  The  notion,  they 
say,  is  ridiculous,  though  it  was  admittedly  entertained  by  a  few  unin- 
fluential  Pan-German  dreamers.  The  denial,  however,  is  of  no  value, 
in  view  of  the  national  strategy  already  defined  as  characteristic  of  Ger- 
man psychology,  and  in  view,  still  more,  of  the  unfolding  of  events  as 
we  have  witnessed  them.  For  not  only  was  the  Rubicon  crossed,  the 
Pan-Germans  leading,  but  the  subsequent  speeches  of  these  "dreamers" 
leave  us  in  no  doubt  that  but  for  the  unexpected  resistance  offered  by  a 
large  part  of  Europe  and,  finally,  by  the  rest  of  the  world,  Germany 
would  at  this  moment  be  master  of  Europe  and  mistress  of  the  world. 
This  consummation,  now  frustrated,  was  therefore  latent  as  a  calculated 
possibility  in  Germany's  first  act  of  war.  We  may  even  say,  on  looking 
back,  that  it  was  a  consummation  humanly  probable ;  and  that,  far  from 
having  been  mere  dreamers,  the  Pan-Germans  who  persuaded  the  Ger- 
man people  to  cross  the  Rubicon  were  no  less  practical  than  criminal. 

Viscount  Grey,  as  the  British  Foreign  Minister  responsible  for  the  dis- 
charge of  the  duty  of  his  office,  could  not  therefore  have  been  mistaken 
in  interpreting  German  policy  as  designed  to  disestablish  the  balance  of 
power  in  Europe.  Any  other  Power  in  Europe,  it  is  conceivable,  might 
have  gone  to  war  without  of  necessity  aiming  at  a  European  hegemony. 
But  Germany,  alone  of  all  the  Continental  Powers,  could  not  possibly 
embark  upon  a  war  without  either  aiming  at  hegemony  or,  if  she  won  the 
war,  arriving  at  hegemony  even  in  spite  of  herself.  The  end  was  implicit 
in  the  means.  The  situation  before  Viscount  Grey  was  thus  a  challenge 
to  the  first  condition  of  the  maintenance  of  the  British  Commonwealth,  a 
challenge,  moreover,  thrown  down  by  the  most  formidable  Power  in 
Europe ;  and  if  panic  had  seized  upon  our  Cabinet  at  the  prospect,  we 
should  not  have  been  entitled  to  be  surprised  at  it.  Suspecting,  indeed, 
what  we  have  come  to  know,  concerning  the  unpreparedness  of  this 
country  and  of  our  European  Allies,  and  of  the  preparedness  of  the 
"uninfluential,"  "dreaming"  Pan-Germans,  it  is  surprising,  in  fact,  that 
our  Cabinet  in  particular  displayed,  on  the  whole,  so  few  signs  of  alarm. 
Had  it  entered  into  secret  treaties  of  the  most  extravagant  kind,  had  it 
committed  the  very  sins  with  which  it  is  now  charged  by  the  pacifist 
critics  of  the  actual  secret  treaties,  I,  for  one,  should  still  have  hesitated 
before  condemning  its  members  utterly.     Mad  and  bad  as  such  conduct 


would  have  been,  it  would  have  been  human  and  intelligible.  The  fact  is, 
however,  that,  whether  from  a  false  sense  of  security  or  from  some  better 
cause.  Viscount  Grey  kept  his  head — a  human  and  a  fallible  head,  no 
doubt;  a  head  not  to  be  compared,  of  course,  with  the  heads  of  some  of 
his  critics ;  but  what  head  he  had  he  kept,  with  results  that  we  may  now 
examine. 

The  Allies'  Governing  Principles 

What  were  the  governing  principles  to  be  held  in  mind  by  any  British 
Foreign  Minister  finding  himself  in  Viscount  Grey's  position?  In  the  first 
place,  it  was  necessary  to  secure  Allies  for  the  purpose  of  defeating  Ger- 
many's immediate  attempt  at  hegemony ;  in  the  second  place,  it  was  neces- 
sary to  devise  plans  for  ensuring  Europe,  if  that  were  possible,  against 
any  future  repetition  of  that  attempt;  in  the  third  place,  and  qualifying 
the  former,  it  was  desirable  to  see  to  it  that  in  attempting  to  avoid  one 
danger  we  did  not  run  into  another. 

That  England  has  had  to  "secure"  Allies  in  a  war  against  an  attempt 
to  dominate  Europe  has  been  made  a  subject  of  reflection  upon  the  motives 
of  both  this  country  and  our  Allies.  But  nothing  is  more  ill-conceived 
than  such  a  charge.  It  is  true  that  for  a  nation  that  fancies  liberty  the 
prospect  of  slavery  is  alone  sufficient  to  induce  its  people  to  take  up  the 
sword  without  the  addition  of  any  other  motive ;  but  to  a  nation,  however 
much  in  love  with  liberty,  that  does  not  realize  the  imminence  of  slavery, 
something  supplementary  to  the  motive  of  deliverance  from  a  perhaps 
imaginary  fear  may  be  necessary.  I  am  not,  it  must  be  understood,  cast- 
ing reflections  upon  any  of  our  Allies ;  they  have  all  suffered  too  much 
too  readily  to  have  their  complete  good  faith  so  much  as  questioned. 
But  I  am  assuming  that  it  was  not  of  necessity  the  case  that  each  and 
every  one  of  our  Allies  saw  the  war,  from  the  moment  of  its  outbreak, 
in  the  same  light  as  ourselves.  The  incredibility  of  what  has  only  in 
course  of  time  become  clear  to  everybody — and  not  even  yet  to  every- 
body ! — was  as  likely  to  occur  among  nations  as  among  individuals ;  and 
it  is  therefore  no  reproach  upon  either  this  country  or  its  Allies  that  one 
or  other  of  them  needed  to  be  persuaded  at  first  to  take  the  German 
menace  as  seriously  as  it  deserved. 

To  Prevent  German  Aggression  in  the  Future 

But  what  can  the  outbreak  of  the  war  be  said  to  have  proved  if  not 
that  the  actual  balance  of  power  in  Europe  was  such  that  Germany 
thought  herself  safe  in  presuming  upon  it?  We  have  seen  that  for  Ger- 
many it  was  a  war  of  calculation,  of  reasonable  calculation.  Thus  and 
thus,  she  said  to  herself,  are  the  forces  in  Europe  distributed ;  and  thus 
and  thus,  in  consequence,  can  the  war  be  decided.  The  balance  of  power, 
in  other  words,  was  already  presumed  to  be  in  her  favor ;  and  all  that 
was  expected  of  the  war  was  to  prove  it.  In  this  pre-war  disposition  of 
forces  we  can  see,  if  we  like,  the  occasion  of  the  war  itself.    No  country, 


not  even  Germany,  would  initiate  an  aggressive  war  if  she  knew  for 
certain  that  she  would  be  defeated ;  for  even  militarist  nations  love  con- 
quest rather  than  war.  But  with  the  calculable  chances  of  victory  appar- 
ently on  her  side,  it  was  inevitable,  Germanly  speaking,  that  sooner  or 
later  the  Pan-Germans  would  prevail  upon  their  country  to  make  war. 
This  consideration,  however,  leads  to  another  still  more  relevant  to  our 
argument.  If  a  professedly  militarist  Power  is  always  likely  to  go  to  war 
when  the  balance  of  forces  seems  to  be  on  her  side,  what  else  can  her 
peaceful  neighbors  do  but  attempt  to  withhold  from  her  the  opportunity? 
If  it  is  opportunity  alone  that  is  wanting  to  Germany  to  make  war,  the 
plain  duty  of  her  neighbors  is  to  secure  themselves  against  the  repetition 
of  the  opportunity — in  other  words,  to  see  that  never  again,  while  Ger- 
many remains  militarist,  shall  the  balance  of  forces  in  Europe  be  even 
calculably  in  her  favor.  It  is  this  consideration,  I  believe,  that  inspires 
the  second  of  the  two  governing  principles  that  were  necessarily  present 
in  the  mind  of  Viscount  Grey  in  his  negotiations  with  our  Allies.  Not 
only  were  they  to  be  confirmed  in  the  common  defense  of  the  liberty  of 
Europe,  but  measures  were  to  be  devised  to  secure  that  liberty  when  it 
was  won  by  removing  from  Germany  the  temptation  to  future  aggression. 
In  a  word,  the  former  balance  of  power,  proved  by  the  war  to  have  been 
unstable,  was  to  be  replaced,  if  possible,  by  a  balance  more  nearly  equal. 
Perfidious  Germany  was  to  be  weakened,  and  the  rest  of  Europe  rightly 
strengthened  at  her  expense. 

Here,  however,  arose  a  consideration  which  must  be  touched  with  a 
tender  hand.  I  purposely  will  not  dwell  upon  it.  The  best  of  nations 
are  liable  to  have  their  heads  turned  by  power — the  worst  their  hearts 
as  well ;  and  it  might  conceivably  have  been  the  case  that  in  rearranging 
the  balance  of  power  in  Europe  for  the  purpose  of  sobering  Germany, 
we  should  be  intoxicating  some  other  nation.  The  menace,  in  any  case, 
could  never  be  so  formidable,  since  no  other  nation  is  Germany,  and  none 
occupies  her  peculiar  position.  But  a  menace  which  we  had  put  out  of 
the  front  door  should  not  be  allowed  to  come  in  again  at  the  back,  even 
in  a  less  threatening  attitude  !  The  point  need  not  be  labored  to  be  realized 
as  involving  a  further  necessary  consideration  in  the  mind  of  our  Foreign 
Minister, 

The  Text  of  the  Treaties 

In  the  light  of  these  governing  principles,  inseparable  from  a  proper 
conception  of  the  duty  of  our  Foreign  Minister  in  the  circumstances  as 
given,  I  should  like  now  to  refer  my  readers  to  the  texts  of  the  secret 
treaties  as  published.  They  will  be  found  set  out,  with  a  commentary, 
both  in  Mr.  C.  A.  McCurdy's  "The  Truth  About  the  Secret  Treaties," 
published  by  W.  H.  Smith  and  Son,  and  elsewhere.  It  is  not  my  inten- 
tion to  examine  them  in  detail,  for  that  would  be  wearying  to  the  sfeneral 
reader,  and  superfluous  to  the  student  of  the  texts  themselves.  All  I  ask 
of  those  who  are  sore  oppressed  with  doubts  concerning  them,  is  that 
they  should  examine  the  texts  in  the  light  of  the  three  governing  prin- 

10 


ciples  which  I  have  just  laid  down;  when  it  will  be  found,  I  think,  that 
every  clause  of  the  treaties,  every  effect  of  them,  is  designed  to  answer 
one  or  two  or  all  three  of  the  elementary  demands  of  the  foreign  policy 
of  the  British  Commonwealth.  They  are  designed,  that  is  to  say,  to  secure 
our  Allies,  to  safeguard  Europe  against  an  early  repetition  of  Germany's 
attempt  at  hegemony,  and,  in  President  Wilson's  phrase,  to  make  the 
world  safe  for  democracy.  I  will  not  go  so  far  as  to  say  that  they  are 
(or  were)  all  perfectly  designed  to  one  or  other  of  these  ends.  They  are, 
in  fact,  open  to  criticism  in  detail,  if  not  in  principle.  But  that,  as  a 
whole,  they  are  not  only  so  designed,  but  satisfactorily  and  justifiably  so 
designed,  would  be  evident,  I  think,  if  a  comparison  be  made  of  the  map 
of  Europe  in  all  its  aspects  as  it  existed  before  the  war  with  the  map  of 
Europe  as  it  would  be  left  when  all  the  treaties  had  been  carried  out. 
For  what  should  we  find?  Evidence,  in  the  first  place,  that  Germany 
had  in  the  interval  between  the  two  maps  been  unmistakably  defeated ; 
in  the  second  place,  a  redistribution  of  power,  economic,  political,  strategic 
and  national,  making  for  the  strengthening  of  Europe  against  Germany, 
and,  hence,  against  the  renewal  of  Germany's  war  of  conquest;  yet,  in 
the  third  place,  not  so  much  strengthening  of  any  other  Power  that  when 
the  chamber  had  been  swept  and  garnished,  fresh  devils  would  be  likely 
to  enter  in  and  take  possession.  Had  I  to  defend  the  treaties  before  an 
assembly  of  the  Union  of  Democratic  Control,  I  could  think  of  no  better 
justification  of  them  than  that  they  would  actually,  if  carried  out,  have 
established  these  results.  Nor  do  I  think  that  a  better  justification  is 
needed. 

Hoiv  the  Treaties  Stand  To-day 

Here  I  could  lay  down  my  pen  as  if  my  inquriy  were  ended;  as, 
indeed,  it  would  be  if  events  had  not  moved  since  the  last  of  the  treaties 
had  been  signed.  But  since  it  is  the  case  that  in  very  few  respects  are 
the  conditions  to-day  the  conditions  under  which  the  secret  treaties  were 
drawn  up,  it  is  necessary  to  add  to  their  justification  at  the  period  of  their 
signature,  an  account  of  how  they  stand  at  this  moment.  Whatever  the 
plausibility  of  the  charges  brought  against  the  treaties  in  their  fixed 
condition  up  to  the  middle  of  March,  1917,  it  is  certain  that  no  plausibility 
can  attach  to  charges  brought  against  them  since  that  date.  For,  as  we 
shall  see,  the  truth  of  the  matter  is  that  the  treaies  no  longer  exist  in  a 
binding  or  definite  form.  They  are  propositions,  not  dispositions ;  and 
not  all  of  them  are  any  longer  even  propositions. 

The  conditions  naturally  assumed  by  the  contracting  Allies  as  condi- 
tions governing  the  treaties  were,  apart  from  the  main  condition,  namely, 
the  defeat  of  Germany,  the  inviolability  of  the  Alliance  and  the  absence 
of  any  fresh  factor  of  importance.  If  Germany  should  not,  in  the  end, 
be  defeated,  it  is  obvious,  of  course,  that  the  terms  of  the  treaties  between 
her  presumptive  conquerors  would  become  null  and  void.  Equally,  it  is 
obvious  that  in  the  event  of  the  secession  from  the  Alliance  of  one  of  the 
contracting  parties,  or,  again,  in  the  event  of  the  adhesion  to  the  Alliance 
of  a  new  principal  party,  the  treaties,  if  they  should  not  become  totally 

11 


null  and  void,  would  at  least  need  to  be  revised.  Both  these  latter  events 
have  actually  occurred.  Russia,  one  of  the  chief  contracting  parties  to 
the  secret  treaties,  went  out  of  the  Alliance,  and  America,  a  not  negligible 
party,  came  into  it. 

At  the  blow  of  the  first  of  these  two  events  it  might  be  supposed  that 
the  elaborate  erection  of  the  treaties  would  fall  like  the  walls  of  Jericho. 
Of  the  six  main  secret  treaties  published  in  the  various  editions,  four  are 
almost  wholly,  and  two  are  partly,  concerned  with  Russia.  It  is  a  fair 
estimate  that  three-fourths  of  the  substance  of  the  treaties  were  dependent 
upon  the  continued  adherence  of  Russia.  Again,  it  might  have  been 
supposed  that  with  the  substitution  of  America  for  Russia  in  the  Alliance, 
its  atmosphere  would  have  been  so  changed  that  not  even  the  surviving 
treaties  could  live  in  it.  At  the  least,  it  might  be  assumed  that  the  double 
event  must  profoundly  affect  the  whole  diplomatic  structure. 

Future  Action 

Various  opinions  did,  indeed,  arise  concerning  what  should  be  done 
with  the  treaties.  There  were  those — there  are  still  those — who  would 
have  had  the  Allies,  and  England  in  particular,  denounce  the  whole  body 
of  the  secret  treaties,  Russian,  French,  Italian,  Serbian,  Roumanian,  and, 
I  suppose,  Belgian,  and  start  again  with  a  new  slate  on  which  nothing 
should  be  written  save  what  might  be  shown  to  the  world,  including 
Germany.  These  are  the  pacifist  out-and-outers,  the  men  who,  never 
conceivably  having  put  themselves  in  the  place  of  a  responsible  Foreign 
Minister,  have  never  realized  the  obligations  of  his  office.  There  were 
and  are  those,  again,  who  would  allow  the  mainly  Russian  agreements  to 
have  lapsed  with  the  secession  of  Russia,  but  who  are  of  opinion  that 
the  rest  of  the  treaties  can  still  be  held  good.  Finally  come  those  who 
would  "leave  everything  to  President  Wilson,"  and  who,  in  the  mean- 
while, regard  the  treaties  as  not  dead  but  never  born. 

Of  the  members  of  the  first  group  it  may  be  remarked  that  in  spite 
of  their  professed  internationalism  they  seem  never  to  think  of  honor, 
even  among  the  Powers  they  regard  as  thieves.  The  solemn  international 
covenants  called  treaties,  whether  secret  or  open,  are,  in  the  opinion  of 
this  school,  to  be  denounced  by  ourselves  without  regard  to  the  wishes 
of  our  cosignatories  and  Allies.  It  is  true  that  this  country  is  in  alliance 
with  France  and  Italy  among  other  Powers ;  it  is  also  admitted  that  we 
owe  a  great  deal  to  our  Allies.  But  we  are,  nevertheless,  to  denounce 
the  treaties  on  which  they  confirmed  their  alliance  with  us  at  any  moment 
it  may  happen  to  appear  to  suit  us !  It  is  unnecessary  to  say  more  in 
reply  to  this  school  than  that  France  and  Italy  are  not  disposed  to  accept 
their  ruling.  The  denunciation  of  the  secret  treaties  is  for  the  signatory 
Allies  to  make ;  for  them  and  for  no  single  party.  The  second  school  of 
opinion  is  no  less  extreme  ;  but  for  a  different  reason  it  is  no  less  im- 
practicable. Admitting  that  the  mainly  Russian  treaties  have  lapsed,  it 
cannot  be  said  that  they  have  left  unaffected  the  remaining  and  only 

12 


partly  Russian  treaties,  for  these  had  those  in  view,  and  were,  in  a  sense, 
fitted  into  them.  It  is  impossible  to  take  away  the  major  parts  of  an 
organic  whole  and  leave  the  minor  parts  still  organically  intact.  In  them- 
selves and  apart  from  their  context  the  surviving  parts  are  either  too 
much  or  too  little.  Even  supposing,  therefore,  that  the  non-Russian 
treaties  should  be  left,  they  must  submit  to  modification  before  they  can 
enter  a  fresh  complete  organism. 

Finally,  as  regards  the  American  school,  I  may  at  once  point  out  that 
the  members  of  the  school  are  not  to  be  found  in  America.  America 
is  among  our  military  and  naval  Allies ;  but  America  is  not  yet  among  our 
political  and  diplomatic  Allies.  The  substitution  of  America  for  Russia 
was,  in  other  words,  not  a  perfectly  complete  substitution.  It  follows 
from  this  that  those  who,  at  the  present  moment,  propose  to  "leave  every- 
thing to  America,"  are  reckoning  without  their  host,  presuming  upon  a 
political  and  diplomatic  alliance  that  does  not  yet  exist. 

For  Consideration  by  the  Peace  Conference 

But  if,  as  is  the  case,  the  main  treaties  of  the  group  have  lapsed  and 
the  minor  ones  are,  in  consequence,  subject  to  indefinite  amendment,  what 
can  be  said  to  be  the  present  state  of  the  treaties — are  they  dead  or  alive, 
operative  or  inoperative?  All  good  pacifists,  I  trust,  will  observe  my 
reply,  since  it  has  the  warrant  of  the  authoritative  speeches  of  our  present 
Prime  Minister,  our  present  Foreign  Minister,  our  present  Assistant 
Foreign  Minister,  Mr.  Asquith,  and  many  others.  It  is  that  the  treaties 
are  neither  dead  nor  alive,  neither  operative  nor  non-operative,  neither 
denounced  nor  reaffirmed — they  are  in  suspense.  But  what  is  it  to  be  "in 
suspense"?  Cannot  a  plain  answer  be  given  such  as  a  plain  pacifist  can 
understand?  It  can.  To  be  in  suspense,  as  the  secret  treaties  now  are, 
is  to  be  on  the  agenda  of  the  Peace  Conference  for  discussion ;  it  is  to 
be  the  subject  of  resolutions  to  be  moved  and  supported,  but  not  neces- 
sarily to  be  carried.  In  relation  to  the  secret  treaties,  this  state  of  sus- 
pended animation  may  be  taken  as  meaning  that  their  texts  may  be 
brought  up  before  a  Peace  Conference  and  discussed  there,  but  that 
neither  upon  the  Conference  as  a  whole,  nor  even  upon  any  or  all  of  the 
signatories  of  the  treaties  will  such  texts  be  binding  verbatim  et  literatim. 
This  is  what  I  conceive  to  be  the  present  state  and  status  of  the  secret 
treaties.  It  is  not  a  dignified  position,  perhaps ;  it  is  not  a  position  to  be 
envied  by  any  official  and  self-respecting  treaty.  On  the  other  hand,  even 
if  the  charges  brought  against  the  secret  treaties  in  their  prime  were  true, 
they  could  not  be  laid  at  the  door  of  treaties  in  this  state ;  and  since  the 
former  charges,  as  we  have  seen,  are  not  true  but  false,  the  treaties  in 
their  present  plight  must  be  allowed  to  leave  the  court  without  so  much 
as  a  charge  on  their  character. 

The  Constitution  of  the  Peace  Conference 

In  conclusion,  I  may,  perhaps,  be  permitted  to  speculate  on  the  prob- 
able nature  of  the  Peace  Conference,  at  which,  it  is  to  be  presumed,  the 

13 


secret  treaties  will  come  up  for  discussion.  Nobody  knows,  at  present, 
what  the  actual  character  of  the  Conference  will  be,  how  long  it  will  last, 
what  will  be  the  order  of  its  procedure,  or  the  sum  of  matters  with  which 
it  will  deal.  All  these  questions  depend  for  their  answers  upon  two  main 
factors  at  present  uncertain:  the  cast  of  mind  of  the  representatives  of 
Germany;  and  the  credentials  of  the  representatives  of  America.  Will 
Germany  attend  as  a  criminal  caught  and  brought  to  the  bar  unrepentant, 
or  as  a  contrite  partner  in  the  work  of  reconstruction?  Will  America 
attend  as  a  principal  and  co-plenipotentiary  or  as  a  deeply  interested  but 
third  party  with  the  power  of  veto  by  counter-signature?  These,  as  I  say, 
are  unsettled  matters,  but  I  would  draw  the  attention  of  pacifists  to  them 
as  more  formative  material  for  consideration  than  the  half-dead,  half-alive 
secret  treaties.  The  policy  represented  by  the  secret  treaties  will,  in  any 
case,  be  obligatory  upon  the  Peace  Conference ;  since  it  is,  as  regards  the 
future,  no  less  than  the  prevention  of  another  world-war  such  as  the 
present ;  but  the  texts  of  the  treaties  will,  also,  in  any  case,  be  but  a  small 
fraction  of  the  m.atters  that  will  need  to  be  discussed.  Their  body  may 
thus  perish,  having  served  its  turn,  but  their  purpose  and  soul  will  go 
marchinsT  on. 


14 


A  List  of 
Important  Publications 
Bearing  on  the  War 


"THE   IRISH    QUESTION:    FEDERATION    OR    SECESSION,"    by  F.  S. 

Oliver,  author  of  "Alexander  Hamilton."     Price  10c. 

"GREAT  BRITAIN  FOR  DEMOCRACY,"  by  Lt.-Col.  G.  G.  Woodwark. 
Price  10c. 

"TREASURY  OF  WAR  POETRY."  289  pages.  Price  $1.25.  (Houghton 
Mifflin). 

"THE  WESTERN  FRONT,"  drawings  by  Muirhead  Bone— in  two  volumes. 
Price  $2.50.     (George  H.  Doran). 

"THE   WOMAN'S   PART,"   by  L.  K.  Yates.     Price  50c.     (George  H.  Doran). 

"MY  MISSION  TO  LONDON,"  by  Prince  Lichnowsky.  Price  10c.  (George 
H.  Doran). 

"WOMEN  OF  THE  WAR,"  by  Hon.  Mrs.  Francis  MacLaren.  Price  $1.25. 
(George  H.  Doran). 

"THE  LEAGUE  OF  NATIONS:  THE  OPPORTUNITY  OF  THE 
CHURCH,"  by  Charles  Gore,  Bishop  of  London.  28  pages.  Price  10c. 
(George  H.  Doran). 

"THE  BRITISH  NAVY  AT  WAR,"  by  Prof.  W.  Macneile  Dixon.  90  pages. 
Price  75c.     (Houghton  Mifflin). 

"SUMMARY     FOR     CONSTITUTIONAL      REFORMS     FOR     INDIA." 

Proposals  of  Secretary  of  State  Montagu  and  the  Viceroy,  Lord  Chelmsford. 
24  pages.     Price  10c. 

"GEMS  (?)  OF  GERMAN  THOUGHT,"  by  William  Archer.  120  pages. 
Price  25c.     (Doubleday,  Page). 

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"ENGLISH  SPEAKING  PEOPLES."  Their  future  relations  and  Joint 
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"THE  VANDAL  OF  EUROPE."  _  An  Expose _  of  the  Inner  Workings  of 
Germany's  Policy  of  World  Domination  and  its  Brutalizing  Consequences, 
by  Wilhelm  Miihlon.     335  pages.     Price  $1.50  net.     (Putnam). 

"THE  GUILT  OF  GERMANY."  For  the  War  of  German  Aggression— Prince 
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Introduction  by  Viscount  Bryce.  By  Lichnowsky.  122  pages.  Price  75c. 
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"IMPERIAL  ENGLAND,"  by  Cecil  F.  Lavell  and  Charles  E.  Payne.  Price 
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"THE    CHARACTER    OF    THE    BRITISH    EMPIRE,"  by  Ramsay  Muir. 

Price  5c.     (Doran). 

i 
"THE    ROOTS    OF   A    WORLD    COMMONWEALTH,"  by  P.  T.  Forsyth, 

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"GENERAL  SMUTS'S  MESSAGE  TO  SOUTH  WALES."  Price  5c. 
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"BRITISH  WAR  AIMS."  Statement  by  Right  Honorable  David  Lloyd  George. 
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