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BOSTON PUBLIC LIBRARY 



3 9999 06542 002 6 




NATIONAL RECOVERY ADMINISTRATION 



DIVISION OF REVIEW 






PRODUCTION, PRICES, EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS 
IN INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, AND RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION 



JANUARY, 1923 TO DATE 



WORK MATERIAL No. 15. 



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Current Statistics Unit 

Statistics Section 

November, 1935 



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No. (5 



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NATIONAL RECOVERY ADMINISTRATION 
DIVISION OF REVIEW 



PRODUCTION, PRICES, EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS 
IN INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, AND RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION 

JANUARY, 1923 TO DATE 



WORK MATERIAL No. 15. 



Current Statistics Unit 

Statistics Section 

November, 1935 



NATIONAL ESC OVERT ADMI III STRATI ON 
DIVISION CI 1 REVIEW 



PRODUCTION, PRICES, EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS 
IN INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, AND RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION 

JANUARY, 19 23 TO DATE 



WORK MATERIAL NO. 15 



Current Statistics Unit 
Statistics Section 
November, 1955 



9028 



CONTENTS 



Page 



Foreword 1 

SECTION I, Industrial Production, Agricultural 

Marketings, and Railway*- Traffic, 
January, 1923 to Date . 2 

SECTION II. Industrial Prices, Agricultural Prices, 

and Railway Rates, January, 1923 to Date. , . , 5 

SECTION III. Factory Employment, Railway Employment, 

and Hired Farm Latior, January, 1923 to 
Date 

SECTION IV. Factory Payrolls, Farm Wage Payments, 

and Railway Payrolls, January, 1923 to 
Dat 3 11 

SECTION V. Production, Prices, Employment, and 

Payrolls in Manufacturing, Agriculture, 

and Railways, January, 1923 to Date 13 

APPENDIX 17 



9028 



~i_ 



-1~ 

Production, Prices, Employment, and Payrolls 
in Industry, Agriculture, and Railway Transportation 

January, 1923 to Date 



Foreword 



In the following pages charts are presented to show the course 
of production, prices, employment, and payrolls in three main fields 
of economic activity — industry, agriculture, and railway transportat- 
ion. The data, which are included in the Appendix, are presented as 
indexes adjusted for seasonal variation with 1923-1925 as a "base, The 
series are also presented, in smoothed form, grouped according to the 
three major fields of activity. 

The studs'- grew out of a desire to analyze ERA and no n— ERA 
industries with respect to the four items mentioned. Adequate data 
for such a study are, however, not available , particularly so far as 
the non~ERA industries are concerned. Five fields of activity were 
excluded from the jurisdiction of ERA; namely, agriculture, steam 
railroads, government, professional and domestic service. Of these 
five, the necessary data are available only for agriculture and 
railroads. Although these two groups alone do not cover the whole 
nan— ERA field, they represent a large and important part of it. 
For the ERA industries, also, adequate data are not in all cases 
available, particularly for the non-manufacturing groups. 

Various shortcomings in the data and qualifications as to 
their use are noted in the text and tables. The material was prepared 
by members of the Current Statistics Unit as follows: 

Production — Harold L. Posner 
Prices — Walter G-. Keim 
Employment — Ruth Rosenwald 
Payrolls — Victor Perlo and 

Viola Wy ckoff 

The work was under the supervision of Gertrude B. Working, 
Chief of the Current Statistics Unit of the Statistics Section. 



L. C. Marshall, 
Director, The Division of Review. 



9028 13 My • 



-2- 



Section 1. Industrial Production, Agricultural Marketings, 
and Railway Traffic, January, 1923 to Date, 



Trends in three major field of economic activity — industry, 
agriculture, and railway transportation — are shown in Chart 1. l/ 
Prior to 1929 no great difference is to "be noted in their courses of 
activity,, Industrial production increased steadily from 1923, with 
two major setbacks in 1924 and 1927, reaching a perk of 125 per cent 
of the 1923-1925 level during 1929, Railway traffic 2/ followed 
generally the same course as industrial production, registering de- 
clines in 1924 and 1927; however, it reached its peak during 1926 
with a slight downward trend to 1929, Agricultural marketings 3/ 
recorded less variation in the average from year to year than either 
industrial production or railway traffic. Railway traffic, and 
agricultural marketings more especially, showed large monthly fluctua- 
tions even after adjustment for seasonal variation, while industrial 
production followed a comparatively smooth course. 

Since 1929 the paths of these three activities have "been 
widely divergent. The most marked decline occurred in railway traf- 
fic, which in August, 1932, and again in March, 1933, dropped to less 
than 50 per cent of the 1923-1925 level. During 1934 it averaged 
less than 65 per cent of the "base years. 

The volume of agricultural marketings suffered least during 
the depression, averaging 85 per cent during 1932, Concurrently 
with the industrial "boomlets of 1933 and 1934, agricultural marketings 
registered sharp increases. There was some improvement in 1933, hut 
the average for 1934 was the lowest during the period of this study, 
and every month in 1935 has "been considerably below the corresponding 
period of 1934. When considered on a crop year basis (August to July) , 
the annual average has declined from 90 in the 1931-1932 to 87 in 
1932-1933, to 8b 5 in 1933-1934. 



l/ For monthly data from which the chart was made, see Appendix, 
Table I-A, B, and C (pp. 19-21). 

2/ The railway traffic index was constructed by combining passenger 
miles and ton miles, weighted by their respective proportions 
of total operating revenues during 1923-1925. 

3/ Agricultural marketings have been used in lieu of a monthly 

series on agricultural production. It is, of course, recognized 
that agricultural production as a whole held up during the de- 
pression even better than marketings, as a comparison of the 
annual data for the two series shows. 



9028 



~3- 



Indus trial production fell to a low point of 53 per cent in 
the summer of 1932, "but has shown an upward trend since that time, 
marked "by three "boomlets, the sharpest one occurring from March to 
July, 1933, in anticipation of increased costs under ERA. The latest 
month of the chart, September, marks the fourth consecutive month of 
improvement since Hay, although the index, is still "below the high 
point of January, 1935, 



9028 



CHART I 



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-5- 

Section II. Industrial Prices, Agricultural Prices, and Railway Rates, 
January, 1923 to Date 

It is apparent from Chart 2 2J that the trends of prices for the three 
major classes of business activity, namely, industrial, 2/ agricultural, 3/ 
and railway, 4/ were not widely divergent during the period 1923 to 1927, 
By the latter part of 1927, however, '..hen industrial prices fell and agri- 
cultural -rices rose, a marked spread among the three curves "became apparent, 

There was little further change in the relative position of the three 
groups of prices until early 1930 when industrial — and more particularly 
agricultural — ■ prices "broke sharply downward. In the down-swing the price 
of farm and food products declined at a faster rate than did industrial 
prices until in March, 1931, "both series stood at 75 per cent of the 1923- 
1925 level. Prices of agricultural products continued to fall faster than 
other prices. In February, 1933, they reached a low 52 per cent "below the 
1923-1925 level, while the low of industrial prices, reached in April, 
showed a drop of only 35 per cent. 

Average prices paid for service in the railroad industry had an 
experience very different from that existing in the other two price groups. 
The composite figure for freight and passenger receipts per mile exhibited 
no great cyclical decline. Instead it fell slightly from 1923 to 1929, and 
a little more markedly after 1929, "but the average for the year 1933 was 
only 14 per cent "below the level of the "base years, 'There was a further 
small decline in 1934, There is indication of a slight upward turn during 
the first half of 1935. 

During the early stages of the recovery period which "began in 1933, 
the price trends for agricultural and industrial commodities were much the 
same. The chief rise in agricultural products occurred from March to July, 
1935, while that for industrial products took place from Hay to October, 
Agricultural prices rose more sharply than industrial, "but remained lower 
than the former relative to the 1923-1925 level. 



1/ For montlOy data from which the chart was made, see Appendix, Table II— A, 
3, and C (pp. 22-24). 

2/ "Industrial prices," as used in this study, means the Bureau of Labor 
Statistics series "All commodities other than farm products and foods." 

3/ Ike index of agricultural prices was constructed by combining the indexes 
for farm products and foods; the weighting factors were based on the 
value of the product in the base period, 

4/ The index of railway rates was constructed by combining receipts per 

ton of freight and per passenger carried one mile, weighted according to 
the income received from each during the base years. 



9028 



-6- 

From July "until the end of 1933 farm product prices dropped off nearly 
6 per cent. However, the upward movement of agricultural prices was resumed 
in January, 1934, as a result of the operation of the Agricultural Adjust- 
ment Act and of the extended drought. By September, 1935, agricultural 
products sold at prices which were, on the average, only 16 per cent "below 
their 1923-1925 level. On the other hand, industrial prices registered no 
appreciable advance from October, 1933, to September, 1935, remaining at a 
point approximately 24 per cent below the level of the base years. 



9028 



-7- 

CHART 2 



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Section III. Factory Employment, Railway Employment, and Hired Farm 
La"bor, January, 1923 to Date 



The indexes presented in Chart 3 1/ show the course of employment 
in three important branches of economic activity, whose combined employ- 
ment constitutes almost one-third of the total employment in the United 
States, 

From the base period. 1923-1925 to the trough of the depression, 
railway emplo^nuent 2/ declined most, and hired farm labor least, while 
factory employment suffered the most precipitous decline even though it 
did not fall quite so low as railway employment. Through 1933-34 and 
early 1935 the index of hired farm labor 3/ continued its downward 
trend, railway emplojrment improved slightly, while factory employment 4/ 
enjoyed a decided rise. 

Prior to 1928, the trends in manufacturing and railway employment 
were not essentially different. During these earlier years the curve 
for agricultural employment, although characterized by pronounced 
fluctuations even after seasonal adjustment, shows much the same trend 
as is found in the other two curves. 

By 1928 railway employment had already started to decline, while 
factory employment dipped slightly before going into its rise to the 
1929 peak. Hired farm labor, meanwhile, held steady. By the end of 
1929 all three series were declining, with the farm labor series drop- 
ping less sharply than either factors'- or railway employment. Railway 
employment, which had been declining gently for more than two years, 
entered into a continued decline in September of 1929; factory employ- 
ment reached its peak in August and fell abruptly from that point; and 
farm labor joined the general drop in November. All three series 
continued to decline until 1933. 



1/ For monthly data from which the chart was made, see Appendix, 
Table I II- A, B, and C (pp. 25-27). 

2/ Railway employment includes salaried officers and employees as well 
as wage earners. However, these salaried persons constitute only 
about ten per cent of the total. 

3/ The index of hired farm labor was constructed from the average 
number of hired hands per crop-reporter farm, adjusted to apply 
to all farms. 

4/ Factory employment has been used rather than industrial employment 
because one of the constituent series of the latter, viz., mining 
employment, is not available by months as far back as 1923. 



9028 



-9- 



In that year, while farm labor continued to decline, factory 
employment skyrocketed from its low in March and, "by the end of the year, 
had recovered all of its 1932, and part of its 1931, loss. Railway 
employment climbed moderately, starting with June. 

During the first ten months of 1935, the trend in hired farm labor 
has taken no significant turn. In October, the latest month on the chart, 
it stood at 75, 2 points above October a year ago. Railway employment 
has shown almost no improvement; in August of this year it was 55, two 
points below the average for 1934, and only 3 points above the low of May, 
1933. Factory employment has enjoyed the greatest improvement. In 
September it stood at 81.9, showing a recovery of nearly half the loss 
from its 1929 peak. Manufacturing alone has made substantial progress 
towards reemploying those thrown out of employment since 1929. 



9028 



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-11-. 



Section IV. Factory Payrolls, Farm Wage Payments, and Railway Payrolls, 
January, 1923 to Date 



The extent to which factory payrolls, hired farm Labor wage payments, 
and railway payrolls move together is noteworthy. As may "be seen in 
Chart 4, 1/ railway payrolls were more stable than the other two series 
during the pre-depression years. After dipping in 1924, the curves moved 
upward in 1925 and 1926. Farm wage payments 2/ then fluctuated about a 
fairly level trend 3/ until 1929, while factory payrolls 4/ fell off 
slightly and then rose to a new high in September, 1929. Railway payrolls 
meanwhile fluctuated a little above and below the 1923-1925 average. 

In the latter part of 1929 all three curves began a sharp downward 
plunge, with the factory and railway series reaching their low in March 
and April, 1933, respectively, while agricultural payrolls touched their 
low in August of the same year. 

Luring the recovery period, characterized by devaluation of the 
dollar and enormous relief expenditures, there is considerable divergence 
among the three curves. The significant feature of this period is the 
sharp increase in factory payrolls which coincided with the codification 
of industry under the KRA. Prom March, 1933, through September, 1935, 
payrolls increased 100 per cent. Farm wage payments increased in August 
and September, 1935, to a point 30 per cent above the low of March, 1933; 
but in October the seasonally adjusted index fell back to a point only 
16 per cent above the low. In railroading, where the drop \vas not quite 
so severe, payrolls have increased from April, 1933, through August, 1935, 
nearly 25 -oer cent. 



1/ For monthly data from which the chart was made, see Appendix, 
Table IY-A, B, and C (pp. 28-30). 

2/ The index of farm wage payments was constructed by multiplying the 
number of hired hands on crop-reporter farms, adjusted to apply to 
all farms, by monthly wage rates, withoiit board, paid on crop- 
reporter farms. The series on monthly rates without board was used 
to represent all four types of rates reported because of the 
similarity in trend between it and the other types. 

3/ The frequent angularity of the hired farm labor wage payments index, 
which leaves the trend undisturbed, may be due to the fact that 
some of the raw data were obtainable only on a quarterly ba.sis. 

4/ Factory payrolls have been used rather than industrial payrolls be- 
cause one of the constituent series of the latter, viz., mining 
payrolls, is not available by months as far back as 1923. 



9028 



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-13- 



Section V. Production, Prices, Employment, and Payrolls in Manufacturing, 
Agriculture, and Railways, January, 1923 to Date 



In Charts, 5, 6, and 7, 1/ the indexes presented in Charts 1, 2, 3, 
and 4 have been grouped for manufacturing, 2/ agriculture, and railways 
in order that production, prices, employment, and payrolls in each of 
these fields of economic activity may "be seen in juxtaposition, The 
month- to—month fluctuations have "been smoothed (except in the case of 
manufacturing and agricultural prices) by computing a twelve-month moving 
average. 

The resulting charts present significant comparisons. In all three 
the index of payrolls assumed the lowest position shortly after the 
depression set it, and, although exhibiting a rising tendency since 1933, 
is still the lowest index in each field. 

Of particular interest is the contrast between agriculture and 
railways. In the former, prices exhibited a marked decline, while market- 
ing of products and employment maintained a relatively high level up 
until the beginning of the recovery period in 1933. In railways, although 
rates had declined steadily since 1924, they remained relatively high 
throughout the depression, while traffic and employment dropped to extreme- 
ly low levels. In manufacturing, both production and prices fell to about 
the same level, although prices had been declining since 1926 and pro- 
duction had reached a new high in 1929 



1/ For data from which the charts were made, see Appendix, 
Tables V, VI, and VII, A, E, C, end D (pp. 31-42). 

2/ In Charts 1 and 2, industrial production and prices were shown, 

but in Chart 5, indexes for manufacturing production and prices were 
substituted to obtain comparability with the factory employment and 
payroll series. 



9028 



-14- 

CHART 5 



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9028 



TABLE I-A . 

TABLE 1-3 . 

TABLE I-C . 

TABLE I I-A . 

TABLE IL-B • 

TABLE I I-C . 

TABLE I I I-A . 

TABLE III-B . 

TABLE III-C , 

TABLE IV-A , 

TABLE IV-B . 

TABLE IV-C . 

TABLE Y-A . 

TABLE V-B . 

TABLE V-C # 

TABLE V-B # 



-17- 
APPEKDIX 



. Index of Industrial Production, 
January, 1923 to Date 

. Index of Volume of Agricultural 
Marketings, January, 192.3 to Date 

• Index of Railway Traffic, 
January, 1923 to Date 

. Index of Industrial Prices, 

January, 1923 to Date 

• Index of Agricultural Prices, 
January, 1923 to Date 

• Index of Railway Rates, 
January, 1923 to Date ...... 

. Index of Factory Employment, 

January, 1923 to Date 

• Index of Hired Farm Labor, 
October, 1923 to Date 

. Index of Railway Employment, 

January, 1923 to Date ...... 

• Index of Factory Payrolls, 
January, 1923 to Date ...... 

• Index of Farm Wage Payments, 
October, 1923 to Date 

• Index of Railway Payrolls, 
January, 1923 to Date 

• Index of Manufacturing Production, 
January, 1923 to Date ...... 

• Index of Manufacturing Prices, 
January, 1923 to Date 

• Index of Factory Employment, 
January, 1923 to Date 

• Index of Factory Payrolls, 
January, 1923 to Date 



Page 



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(Continued) 



9028 



-18- 



APPENDIX (Concluded) 



TABLE VI-A • 
TABLE VI-B . 
TABLE VI-C . 
TABLE VI-B , 
TABLE VII-A . 
TABLE VII-B . 
TABLE VII-C . 
TABLE VII-D . 



. Index of Agricultural Marketings, 
January, 1923 to Late ...... 

• Index of Agricultural Prices, 
January, 1923 to Late ...... 

o Index of Hired Farm Labor, 

April, 1924 to Bate 

• Index of Farm Wage Payments, 
April, 1924 to Date 

• Index of Railway Traffic, 
January, 1923 to Date 

, Index of Railway Rates, 

January, 1923 to Date ...... 

• Index of Railway Employment, 
January, 1923 to Date •••... 

• Index of Railway Payrolls, 
January, 1923 to Date 



Page 



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