Historic, Archive Document

Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

-

I

SM

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Forest Service

August 1987

1

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r°j

Forestry
Research

West

A report for land managers on recent
developments in forestry research at
the four western Experiment Stations
of the Forest Service, U.S. Depart¬
ment of Agriculture.

In This Issue

page

On the heels of the western
spruce budworm 1

Prognosis revisited 5

Caspar Creek: discovering

how watersheds respond to

logging 10

Hand-held data recorder

changes inventory system 16

New Publications 20

Cover

The western spruce budworm is the
most widely distributed and destruc¬
tive forest defoliator in western North
America. Scientists at the Rocky
Mountain Station are working to
develop a better understanding of
impacts caused by this insect and
other pests in our nation's forests.
Details begin on page 1

To Order Publications

Single copies of publications referred
to in this magazine are available with¬
out charge from the issuing station
unless another source is indicated.
See page 27 for ordering cards.

Each station compiles periodic lists
of new publications. To get on the
mailing list, write to the director at
each station.

To change address, notify the maga¬
zine as early as possible. Send mail¬
ing label from this magazine and new
address. Don’t forget to include your
Zip Code.

Permission to reprint articles is not
required, but credit should be given
to the Forest Service, U.S.D.A.

Mention of commercial products is
for information only. No endorsement
by the U.S.D.A. is implied.

Forestry

Research

West

Western Forest
Experiment Stations

Pacific Northwest Research Station
(PNW)

PO. Box 3890
Portland, Oregon 97208

Pacific Southwest Forest and Range
Experiment Station (PSW)

1960 Addison St.

Berkeley, California 94704

Intermountain Research
Station (INT)

324 25th Street
Ogden, Utah 84401

Rocky Mountain Forest and Range
Experiment Station (RM)

240 West Prospect Street

Fort Collins, Colorado 80526-2098

On the heels of
the western
spruce
budworm

D

by Rick [Fletcher
Rocky Mountain Station

“The first recorded outbreak oc¬
curred in 1909 on Vancouver Island
in British Columbia. Since that year it
has steadily spread into the forests of
western Canada, and throughout
much of the western U.S. If you’re
experiencing some of the same frus¬
trations I am, you’re aware of the
lack of usable information for com¬
bating this pest.” A group of re¬
source specialists, who met recently
at a workshop in Estes Park, Colo¬
rado, was discussing the western
spruce budworm ( Choristoneura oc-
cidentalis Freeman). This insect is the
most widely distributed and destruc¬
tive forest defoliator in western North
America. It is found in the Rocky
Mountains, from Arizona and New
Mexico to southeastern British
Columbia, west to Vancouver Island,
and south into Washington and
Oregon.

The feeding intensity of budworm larva, such
as this on a white fir, is greatest in late spring.

Due to increasing concern over
forest pests, the USDA Forest Ser¬
vice is involved in a coordinated ef¬
fort, involving the Pacific Southwest,
Southeastern, and Rocky Mountain
Stations, to develop a better under¬
standing of impacts caused by the
budworm and other pests in our
nation’s forests.

Specialists meet

The Estes Park workshop was
designed to help develop a set of
information and research needs con¬
cerning the impacts of the budworm
on important forest resource values
in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona,
and parts of Utah. Attendees in¬
cluded USDA Forest Service person¬
nel from NFS. Research, and Forest
Pest Management, along with several
university representatives— all with a
broad range of experiences, con¬
cerns, and ideas.

Research Plant Pathologist Terry
Shaw, who organized the workshop
and heads the Rocky Mountain Sta¬
tion project “Pest Impact Assessment
Technology”, set the tone for the
meeting by outling three major con¬
cerns: “First, our understanding of
the effects of the budworm on forest
resources is, and probably always
will be, imperfect. Therefore, re¬
search should be directed toward
the testing of hypotheses about how
and to what extent budworm effects
are manifested. Second,” he said,
“studies have been conducted on
the problem before. It is therefore
important to ensure that previous re¬
search is not repeated, and that we
try to capitalize and improve on the
best current understanding of bud¬
worm effects on forest resources.

1

Finally, there are many perspectives
on what the important issues and
concerns are. Management needs
for budworm research are different
for different persons and groups.
Without a clear definition of what the
problem is, studies are likely to be
unfocused and ambiguous. There¬
fore, the problems and concerns of
budworm effects must be clearly
defined at the outset of any re¬
search. That’s why we’re here
today!”

Workshop results

The 2V2 day workshop consisted of
a structured set of exercises that
drew on the expertise, knowledge,
and concerns of all participants.
These exercises helped identify: (1)
the important issues related to bud¬
worm effects on forest resources in
the Southwest; (2) the resource
values that are attributes or compo¬
nents of the environment for which
there is concern; and (3) the tem¬
poral horizon and spatial extent over
which budworm affects these re¬
source values; all of which led to (4)
development of a conceptual model
of budworm effects on forest re¬
source values.

This model (Figure 1) provided a
framework for describing how bud¬
worm defoliation affects resource
values through a series of connec¬
tions from host condition, to environ¬
ment, to characteristics of the bud¬
worm. Once the important links
between budworm and specific
resources were identified, it was
possible to discuss how much infor¬
mation is available and the necessity
of additional research. These discus¬
sions generated a "preliminary” set
of essential research priorities:

Economic (Human) Resource

Environment Values

Link 1:

Direct control of bud¬

Link

7:

Effect of changes in

worm populations

fire hazard on fire
intensity

Link 2:

Effect of budworm on
host tree and stand

Link

8:

Effect of changes in

defoliation

fire intensity on forest
structure

Link 3:

Effect of budworm
defoliation on host tree

Link

9:

Interaction of the bud¬

growth

worm with other pests

Link 4:

Effect of changes in

Link

10:

Management influ¬

tree growth caused by

ences on forest

budworm on tree
mortality

structure

Link

11:

Effect of forest struc¬

Link 5:

Effect of budworm-

ture on budworm

induced host tree
mortality on forest

populations

structure

Link

12:

Effect of changes in
forest structure, direct¬

Link 6:

Effect of budworm

ly or indirectly caused

defoliation and

by budworm, on

budworm-induced

resource values

changes in tree mor¬
tality and forest struc¬
ture on fire hazard.

2

Linkage description of conceptual model.

EFFECTS OF BUDWORM DEFOLIA¬
TION ON HOST TREE GROWTH
AND MORTALITY, AND THEIR
SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON
FOREST STRUCTURE. Much of the
knowledge on budworm populations
and their effects on tree and stand
development and mortality is re¬
flected in models that were devel¬
oped by the CAN USA project (see
“Scientists Attack the Western
Spruce Budworm Problem”: Forestry
Research West, March 1983, pages
4-8). These models include the com¬
bined Prognosis-Budworm program
and various risk rating systems. Al¬
though data for these models were
collected from a wide variety of
stands, relationships for budworm sam¬
pling, populations, and impact and
risk models need to be further devel¬
oped and tested to produce a local¬
ized version suitable for use in the
Southwest.

An important area that specialists felt
needed more research centers on
the INTERACTIONS OF THE BUD¬
WORM WITH OTHER FOREST
PESTS. The common pests that
might interact with budworm in the
Southwest are dwarf mistletoe, root
diseases, Douglas-fir and mountain
pine beetles, and Douglas-fir tussock
moth. The major kinds of interactions
between these pests and budworm
were identified as predisposition of
trees by budworm to root rot,
Douglas-fir beetle attack, or infection
by mistletoe, and the combined ef¬
fects of mistletoe and budworm on
growth and yield. A serious concern
was that current models cannot com¬
bine pest effects on tree growth and
mortality.

MANAGEMENT INFLUENCES ON
FOREST STRUCTURE, AND THE
EFFECTS OF FOREST STRUCTURE
ON BUDWORM POPULATIONS are
also of major importance and need
research. The purpose of this effort
would be to evaluate stand prescrip¬
tions for their effectiveness in reduc¬
ing the frequency and severity of
budworm infestations. Existing
budwork-host models, developed to
predict the effects of defoliation on
the host, can also be used to predict
the influence of host condition and
forest structure on the pest
population.

Finally, there’s great concern and
needed research to address the
EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN FOREST
STRUCTURE, DIRECTLY OR IN¬
DIRECTLY CAUSED BY BUDWORM,
ON SUCH RESOURCE VALUES AS
SCENIC BEAUTY, RECREATION,
TOURISM, ECONOMIC WORTH,

AND PRIVATE PROPERTY. There
has been little work on pest effects
on these resources in general, and
budworm effects in particular. In
many portions of the interior West,
these resource values may substan¬
tially outweigh the worth of timber.
The discussion also considered ef¬
fects of defoliation on timber, forage,
water, and wildlife resources. Since
budworm defoliation has a minimal
impact on forage production and
water resources, no research was
recommended. However, additional
studies were suggested to (A) assess
the effects of budworm on the Christ¬
mas tree industry, (B) determine the
deterioration rates of killed trees, and
(C) predict successional changes of
vegetation in budworm outbreak
areas.

Obviously this is a big order to fill,
and judging from the tone of the
workshop and the difficulty attendees
had agreeing on these priorities,
there may be some scientists who
feel that the task is still not complete¬
ly defined. Workshop conclusions are
undergoing additional review as
Shaw and others develop the prob¬
lem analysis for research.

The CANUSA connection

As mentioned earlier, scientists plan
to structure much of their work
around adapting the CANUSA bud¬
worm models for use in the South¬
west. This would include establishing
and validating the relationships which
make up a model, and linking it to
various resource models such as
GENGYM, RUNWILD, etc. (CANUSA
was a cooperative effort between
Canada and the U.S. to predict the
behavior of the western spruce bud¬
worm. Its nearly completed models
should be available soon as an ex¬
tension of the Prognosis stand and
yield model. See “Prognosis: Fortune
Teller for Forest Stands,” Forestry
Research West, June, 1982, pages
1-3).

Shaw believes that some of the infor¬
mation needed to determine these
relationships already exists. "What
we have to do,” he said, “is find out
if, in fact, the information is available,
how to get our hands on it, and if it’s
in a format we can use, in concert
with our upcoming research.”

3

Forward ho!

Shaw and his group of scientists are
planning strategies on three fronts:

1) refine tree- and stand-rating
systems that evaluate the intensity
of infestations by the budworm in
southwestern conifer forests;

2) refine existing systems that
quantify the effects of the bud-
worm on tree growth and stand
dynamics, and tie these effects to
changes in various resource values
(i.e., timber, wildlife, scenic beauty,
etc.); and

3) add this information to existing
stand, growth, yield, and related
models to provide forest managers
with decision support systems for
budworm impact information.

He believes that once these objec¬
tives are accomplished, the on-the-
ground needs of land managers and
other resource specialists that must
deal with the western spruce bud¬
worm will, in turn, be met.

If you would like additional informa¬
tion on this research, contact Terry
Shaw, Rocky Mountain Station, 240
West Prospect Rd., Fort Collins,
Colorado, 80526, (303) 224-1251,

FTS 323-1251.

Budworm defoliation, such as this “spike-top",
is widespread in some areas of the West.

4

np

Prognosis

revisited

by Mike^Prouty
Intermountain Station

A crucial part of the 1962 assess¬
ment of the nation's timber resources
was the prediction of future timber
supplies. And although there was a
long history of growth and yield re¬
search in the northern Rocky Moun¬
tains, the assessment effort was not
using this information to predict
future timber supplies. Disturbed by
this lack of applicability, former Inter¬
mountain Station Assistant Director
Charles Wellner dispatched the Sta¬
tion’s Mensurationist, Al Stage, to
Washington, D.C. to find out why.

Stage believed the best way to
understand the requirements for the
assessment analyses was to be an
active participant, so he joined the
effort and soon learned that the re¬
search results lacked generality of
scope, and were too diverse in vari¬
ables used and in methods of appli¬
cation. Yield tables developed by
research applied only to even-aged
stands consisting of a single tree
species, while most stands in the
West were comprised of a variety of
tree species in a variety of ages.

At the same time, Stage was working
with Forest Survey researchers and
the Forest Service Northern Region
in developing uniform procedures for
conducting stand examinations for
prescribing silvicultural treatments.
Again, it was difficult to forecast how
these prescriptions would change
future yields.

Research results had not been ana¬
lyzed with sufficient generality to
apply to specific stands. Stage con¬
cluded that a forecasting system was
needed that was specific to a par¬
ticular stand and that could incor¬
porate and be periodically updated
with research information on growth
and yield.

So Stage developed the Prognosis
model for stand development, which
was described in the June 1982
issue of Forestry Research West.
Prognosis predicts how stands grow
and regenerate under various silvi¬
cultural treatments.

What began as one man’s idea has
evolved into a research work unit
called “Quantitative Analysis of
Forest Management Practices,’’
located at the Intermountain Station’s
Forestry Sciences Laboratory in
Moscow, ID, with Stage as project
leader. Stage has devoted much of
his research career to improving
planning information, including Prog¬
nosis, and over the years he has
recruited a cadre of scientists to
assist him in making his model more
accessible, more versatile, and more
accurate, and thus a more powerful
tool for forest managers and
planners.

Improving access

As a method of predicting the effect
of a variety of management actions
on the future development of a stand
of trees, Prognosis offers a valuable
glimpse of the future. But until
recently, this tool was available only
to those lucky few who had access
to large mainframe computers. The
nature of the complicated program¬
ming in the simulation model re¬
quired a computer with immense
processing capabilities.

5

Clearcut, 1906

Thus, a recent research effort has
been to rewrite the extensive Fortran
programming to make the model
compatible with personal computers
and with the Forest Service's Data
General (DG) system. A major con¬
straint in the revision was that the
biological behavior of the model
must not change, and that users
would not be required to change
their methods or data. This task was
led by Research Forester William
Wykoff, assisted by Computer Pro¬
grammer Paul Thomas. After a year
of refining, testing, and reprogram¬
ming, the task is complete. The pro¬
gram and a draft of the user docu¬
mentation are avaliable now. Wykoff
is presently working on publishing
the documentation. With the Fortran
77 version of Prognosis, anyone with
a disc drive, a computer with 640K
of RAM, a numerical coprocessor,
and a compiler will be able to run
the model.

Same clearcut, 29 years later

The regeneration establishment model allows
managers to project future stand development

In addition to making the model
accessible to more users, such as
National Forest planners and silvi¬
culturists, Wykoff views the comple¬
tion of the Fortran 77 version of
Prognosis as a milestone in another
way. Although Wykoff accepts revi¬
sion as inevitable and necessary in
the world of modeling, constant revi¬
sion and updating make it difficult to
ever complete a model and finish the
essential documentation for users.
He’s proud of version 77, because
as he states, “The Fortran 77 version
of Prognosis is a complete package.
We'll have the model itself, and we’ll
have documentation that describes
how to use the model, how it works,
and how accurately the model simu¬
lates future stand conditions based
on real-life data.”

6

Increasing versatility

A Prognosis analysis is built on
survey measurements of tree, site,
and stand characteristics. The model
compiles this inventory, extrapolates
it to a stand, then makes a series of
projections of stand growth over
time. Each projection is based on a
silvicultural prescription that the user
selects.

Stage and his associates have devel¬
oped a series of extensions to this
base model that increase the ability
of Prognosis to represent reality.

The first extension to Prognosis came
as a result of a major research effort
regarding the Douglas-fir tussock
moth. Through the effort of the
Pacific Northwest Station and Oregon
State University scientists, a model
was built— independent from Prog¬
nosis— that simulated the effects on
single trees attacked by the Douglas-
fir tussock moth. A concerted re¬
search and development program
then combined the models, enabling
Forest planners and research man¬
agers to assess the consequences of
silvicultural treatments and moth con¬
trol activities on stand volume over
time. Two members of the Inter¬
mountain Station’s Quantitative Anal¬
ysis research unit, Research Forester
Robert Monserud and Operations
Research Analyst Nickolas Crooks-
ton, were involved in this project and
have published a User's Guide for
the combined model.

Forest managers realize that regen¬
eration of stands after harvest is
critical. Productivity lost by poor
stocking or delays in stocking can
never be regained. The second ex¬
tension to Prognosis— the Regenera¬
tion Establishment Model— gives
managers a tool to evaluate the ex¬
pected results of regeneration pre¬
scriptions and to project future stand
development. This extension was

developed by Research Forester
Dennis Ferguson. It uses the man¬
agement history of a stand, its site
characteristics, and the length of time
since the stand was disturbed to
generate a new set of tree records to
represent regeneration of the site.

The uses of the Regeneration Estab¬
lishment Model are many. Managers
planning to harvest a stand of trees
can determine if one or more pre¬
scriptions will meet the regeneration
objective. If harvest has already oc¬
curred, the model can be used to
evaluate whether additional stocking
effort will achieve desired density
levels in the new stand. In addition,
the model can be used to establish
harvesting schedules and to evaluate
regional timber resources.

But what about uses of forests for
other than timber management?
Clearly, managers need to know how
the future structure of forest stands
will affect values such as wildlife,
scenic quality, watershed, and
recreation. To make Prognosis sen¬
sitive to this need, Stage and com¬
pany began work on another exten¬
sion. Research Forester Melinda
Moeur joined the unit, and was given
the task of developing the COVER
extension to Prognosis. This exten¬
sion translates tree characteristics as
projected by the base model into
cover attributes that are significant to
a variety of other users of forest
stands. The program augments the
tree cover with descriptions of the
understory shrubs. The model de¬
scribes how silviculture affects the
amount of cover and foliage in the
tree canopy, and the height and
cover of shrubs, forbs, and grasses
in the understory.

With this extension in place, man¬
agers can examine the effects of
silvicultural treatments on wildlife
thermal and hiding cover, on succes¬
sion and competition with regenera¬
tion, and on how canopy and
ground cover affecting hydrologic
characteristics recover after logging.

Development of additional extensions
to Prognosis continues. Stage,
Crookston, and others in the re¬
search unit are currently testing ex¬
tensions that will model effects on
stand growth and development of
depredations by western spruce bud-
qorm, mountain pine beetle, and two
common root diseases— laminated
root rot and shoestring root rot.

Improving accuracy

Forests, whether managed or not,
are under constant attack by a host
of agents of disease and death.
Whether by slowing growth or by kill¬
ing trees outright, insects and
disease have a profound influence
on the future characteristics of stands
of trees. No wonder four of six Prog¬
nosis extensions that are in place or
in final stage of development involve
forests pests. By accounting for the
effect of insects and disease, these
extensions improve the scope of
Prognosis forecasts.

However, from the very beginning,
Stage knew that the greatest vari¬
ability in his model’s forecasts would
involve natural tree mortality. How
does one program a model to pre¬
dict which trees will drop out of a
stand, and when? He and Research
Forester David Hamilton have
worked to improve the model’s ac¬
curacy in projecting mortality by
identifying factors that increase a
tree’s chances of death. Using these
factors, the model predicts a prob¬
ability of mortality for trees in a
stand.

7

Stage is not troubled by the inherent
natural variability of mortality. A good
model reflects reality, and if reality is
variable, the model’s forecasts also
should be. "An accurate model fore¬
casting the sex of an unborn child
should be right only half the time,”
says Stage. "It's a good model, be¬
cause it accurately reflects reality.
Just as such a model indicates we
should not go out and buy pink or
blue before the birth of a child, our
model of mortality in stands implies
that we should not be so inflexible in
harvest scheduling and road design
that this unpredictable mortality can¬
not be utilized.”

Prognosis forecasts are based on
actual measurements of a sample of
trees that are then extrapolated to
represent an entire stand. Like any
other model that simulates reality, the
quality of Prognosis forecasts relates
directly to the quality of the actual
data collected as well as the quality
and extent of research that supports
assumptions used in the model.

Stage is particularly proud of the
extensive research, and associated
publications, that support use of this
model.

"A simulation model must make
some assumptions about reality,
because it’s not possible to collect
enough data to describe all that
goes on in nature. Some models just
pull assumptions out of thin air.
We’ve worked hard to substantiate
with credible research information
any assumptions of reality we make
in designing the simulation model.
And as research sheds new informa¬
tion about factors on stand growth
and development, we incorporate
these findings into the model," says
Stage.

Pre-treatment, year 1981

Alternative B
Partial cut to 80 ft2/ac in
year 2011

YEAR

2011

2031

2081

Trees per acre

21

472

250

Basal area

80

94

129

% Canopy closure

23

37

77

% Shrub cover

42

36

27

Shrub height (Ft)

2.3

2.2

2.2

Partial cut prescription, year 201 1

Testing Prognosis was possible be¬
cause the Intermountain Station has
maintained records from permanent
sample plots for as long as 70 years.
Although these records now include
over 100 plots in northern Idaho,
another recent effort has been to ex¬
pand this data base. Forester John
Bryne has been given the task of
evaluating the existing data to deter¬
mine what type of new data is
needed, and then coordinate with
National Forests to locate and estab¬
lish permanent sample plots that will
yield additional data from different
ecological situations and new silvi¬
cultural prescriptions.

Twenty years after partial cut, year 2031

Seventy years after partial cut, year 2081

The COVER model projects effects on the
development over time of crowns and shrubs
as a result of various silvicultural treatments,

Bryne is enthused about the potential
for new data, because National
Forests are in the initial stages of
establishing permanent plots to
monitor silvicultural treatments as
prescribed in Forest Plans. "Because
we're working directly with National
Forest personnel in locating and
establishing these plots, we should
be able to obtain valuable, long-term
data that will be useful in making
Prognosis an even stronger tool,”
said Bryne.

8

Other additions

Other additions to Prognosis increase
the model’s capability and versatility.
An economic analysis program has
been used with the model that allows
users to evaluate silvicultural alter¬
natives from an economic point of
view. CHEAPO II, developed by
Intermountain Station Scientist Erv
Schuster, is the latest version of this
program that represents a powerful
analytical tool for analyzing proposed
investments in stand management
alternatives.

The Event Monitor is another addi¬
tion that allows the simulation model
to schedule management activities
after conditions in the stand meet
certain criteria. Before development
of this addition, users of Prognosis
had to anticipate when future stand
conditions would require thinning, for
example, and then manually pre¬
schedule this activity into the model’s
projection cycles. The Event Monitor
now allows users to specify a set of
conditions that must occur, then dur¬
ing the simulation the program will
automatically schedule thinning when
those conditions are met. Further
projections of stand development
then reflect the effect of this thinning
activity.

Documentation for both the Event
Monitor and CHEAPO II has been
published and is available. Another
“addition” to Prognosis is in devel¬
opment, and promises to add a
powerful dimension to the model. To
date, Prognosis and its extensions
model the development of single
stands of trees. But factors that influ¬
ence the growth and development of
forests don’t respect stand bound¬
aries. In addition, constraints that
restrict or direct forest management
—such as watershed or visual quality
considerations— can only be
modeled at a forest level, not by a
single stand.

Applying Prognosis

Presently, Prognosis has been used
in Forest planning to project growth
and yield of forests under prescribed
silvicultural regimes. In addition to
National Forest use, managers of
private timberlands have used the
model in timber planning and harvest
scheduling corporate forests.

Because the base data for Prognosis
were collected from Northern Rocky
Mountain forest habitat types, the
model’s application is restricted to
this area. However, an energetic pro¬
gram is under way to expand its use
by developing variants of Prognosis
based on data gathered from other
geographical areas and forest habitat
types around the country. A national
Timber Management group based in
Fort Collins, CO, has developed vari¬
ants of Prognosis for forest types in
California, Alaska, southern Oregon,
Utah, Wyoming, southcentral and
eastern Idaho, and eastern Washing¬
ton and Oregon. Although following
most of the fundamental design of
Prognosis, these variants often differ
in respects that depend on the
peculiar nature of the growth data
available in these regions.

Stage's visitors are greeted with a
paper cutout of a wizard’s hat taped
on his office door. The symbol is
appropriate. Prognosis is Stage’s
crystal ball. And through his work,
and through the efforts of the other
members of the research unit, their
crystal gaze of future growth and
development of forests in the West is
continually improving. And clearly,
their crystal ball is an important tool
for everyone involved in managing
and planning forest resources.

When documentation is complete,
the Parallel Processor extension to
Prognosis will allow for the interac¬
tion of factors between multiple
stands of trees. With this extension,
silviculturists will be able to account
for the movement of insects from
one stand to another. Forest plan¬
ners will be able to project whether a
particular harvesting regime applied
to several stands will meet watershed
constraints over time.

The Parallel Processor will be used
in other ways as well. For example,
users will be able to simulate the ef¬
fect of either performing or not per¬
forming a silvicultural treatment on
the stand at a given point in time. By
allowing “branching,” the Parallel
Processor will allow simultaneous
projections of a stand’s development
under several conditions, thinned or
unthinned for example. Although en¬
tailing some of the most complicated
programming in the system, this
product of Crookston, Stage, and
Thomas should simplify assessment
of timber resources.

9

^ Caspar Creek:
discovering how
watersheds
respond to

logging _

by Richard B. [Pearce, for
Pacific Southwest Station

For the past two decades, research¬
ers from the Pacific Southwest Sta¬
tion, in cooperation with the Califor¬
nia Department of Forestry (CDF),
have been studying the effects of
logging on the integrity of northern
California watersheds. Their findings
have greatly illuminated the extent
and nature of the hydrologic impact,
erosion, and stream sedimentation
for a northern California basin under¬
going a “typical” logging operation.

But forest practices change, and
along with them, the definition of
what effects need to be measured
when judging the impact of activities
such as logging. That’s why re¬
searchers at the Redwood Sciences
Laboratory in Areata, California and
the California Department of Forestry,
Jackson Demonstration State Forest
near Fort Bragg, have launched a
second study, this time using current
logging practices and a design that
should enable them to monitor cum¬
ulative, not just isolated, effects. It is
hoped that, together, the two long¬
term investigations will give forest
managers, public policy makers, and

Data recorded at weirs in the Caspar Creek
drainage in northern California are showing
effects of logging and roadbuilding on stream
flow and water quality.

private enterprise an empirical basis
on which to formulate sound logging
practices.

Caspar Creek 1962-1976

Based on data from 1962 to 1976,
researchers recorded changes in
streamflow and sedimentation follow¬
ing roadbuilding and logging at
Caspar Creek, located some five
miles southeast of Fort Bragg.

Cooperation between CDF and the
Station dates from 1962. It has been
a fruitful division of labors, with CDF
supervising the construction of re¬
search facilities, the collection of
data, and the logging of experimen¬
tal watersheds, and the Station de¬
signing the experiments and analyz¬
ing the data. Together, they have
jointly decided upon which studies to
undertake and have co-authored
several research reports.

10

The entire South Fork watershed was tractor
yarded between 1971 and 1973.

Calibrating and treating
the watershed

‘‘We started in 1962 with a typical
watershed experiment,” recalled
Project Scientist Raymond M. Rice,
during a recent interview. ‘‘It was
what we call a ‘paired watershed' ex¬
periment. In this kind of study, you
install stream gaging stations in two
drainages that are roughly compar¬
able, and monitor both sediment and
flow.”

The two streams studied were the
South and North Forks of Caspar
Creek. Both watersheds support
growths of redwoods, Douglas-fir,
Grand-fir, and hemlock, and had
been logged before in the late 19th
century.

In the first study, the South Fork was
logged using selective cutting proce¬
dures typical for that time. The North
Fork served as a control.

After a five-year calibration period,
logging roads were built into the
South Fork area in 1967. The effects
of roadbuilding were measured as
local on-sight erosion, suspended
sediment loads in the stream, and
sediment deposited in debris basins.
Logging commenced in 1971 and
ended in 1973 with the same param¬
eters measured throughout. In all, 60
percent of the timber volume of the
South Fork watershed was logged.

Except for a major landslide in the
North Fork and an earthen dam
break during roadbuilding in the
South Fork, Rice, who is a principal
hydrologist with the Station, con¬
siders the results a paradigm for log¬
ging’s effects on any Northern Cali¬
fornia watershed having similar
climate, soil, and logging history.

(The winters in Caspar Creek are
mild and wet. In the summer, coastal
fog often clings to the watershed
until late morning. Annual rainfall is
1190 mm (47 in) with 90 percent fall¬
ing from October to April. Soil in the
area is derived from hard, coarse¬
grained sandstone and shale, which
has been deeply shattered and
moderately weathered.)

Effects of roadbuilding
and logging on
sedimentation

Adjusting the data to account for the
landslide and dam break, Rice and
co-workers Forest B. Tilley (CDF) and
Patricia A. Datzman (PSW) found that
stream sediment increased 80 per¬
cent with roadbuilding and 275
percent with logging (USDA FS
Research Paper PSW-146, 1979).

The researchers observed that most
sediment was carried during relative¬
ly short periods of high flow. In fact,
81 percent of suspended sediment
was transported by flows exceeding
1 .23 m3/s (45 ft 3/s) . Flows of this
magnitude or greater occur only 1
percent of the time. Recognition of
this sediment transport to flow rela¬
tionship led Rice to concoct the
variable SQ25 as an index of the
stream’s ability to transport sediment;
SQ25 is the mean rate of sediment
discharge in ft3/s/mi2 that is associ¬
ated with the top 25 percent of flow
volume.

‘‘Most small, steep watersheds are
supply dependent,” Rice explained,
“the water flowing out has enough
energy to carry much more sediment
than is available for transport. But
logging and allied activities stir up
the ground and make more sediment
available for transport,” he said.

11

Rice suspected that an undisturbed
watershed would show only slight
increases in suspended sediment
loads as stream power increased,
and a plot of the sediment/stream
power relationship for the north fork
of Caspar Creek during the years
1967-76 confirmed this, showing a
slow-to-rise curve (Figure la).

But when sediment enters the stream
because of ground disturbance by
road building or logging, sediment
discharge increases rapidly with
stream power (Figure 1b “distur¬
bance years’’). In effect, Rice’s data
suggest that sediment discharge
switches from being mostly “supply
dependent" during undisturbed
years to being more “stream power
dependent" during disturbance
years. With more sediment available
for transport, sediment discharge be¬
comes more strongly dependent on
the ability of the stream to carry
sediment.

The bottomline, of course, is that log¬
ging and, to a lesser extent, road-
building delivered more sediment to
the Caspar Creek stream channels
than was predicted on the basis of
the calibration years.

Extrapolating from stream sediment
rates, Rice estimated that if Caspar
Creek were logged every 50 years
or so, soil in the area would be total¬
ly exhausted in 33,900 years.

“That’s a planning horizon much
beyond what a forest manager
needs to consider," quipped Rice.
“However,” he added in a serious
tone, “there is certainly going to be
some erosion price to pay when one
goes into natural landscapes to take
trees; its’ just that the price should
be prudent and weighed against the
commercial benefits.”

Effects on stormflows

Another possible consequence of
roadbuilding or logging is destabiliza¬
tion of the stream channel because
of more or bigger floods. Roadbuild-
ing, even on a moderate scale,
might be expected to increase peak
stormflow by compacting road sur¬
faces, which would reduce water
infiltration, or by channeling water
directly into the stream.

However, after reviewing 11 years of
Casper Creek flow data, Researcher
Robert R. Ziemer found no change
in any of several storm flow param¬
eters measured following the period
of roadbuilding in the South Fork.

The absence of flow effects in
Ziemer's data may be explained by
the fact that roads occupied only 5
percent of the area. Selective timber
cutting and tractor yarding were,
however, also found to have no
major hydrologic consequences.

Selective timber cutting and tractor
yarding were likewise found to have
no major hydrologic consequences.
By the conclusion of logging, about
15 percent of the watershed had
been compacted by roads, landings,
or skid trails. Streamflow peaks early
in the winter increased three-fold
after logging in the South Fork, but
were small in magnitude. Storms oc¬
curring later in the season— even
large ones— were not associated with
any change in peak stream flow
above the predicted levels. The flood
peaks were the same height and the
flood volumes comparable between
the North and South Forks.

The study suggests that not only was
logging relatively innocuous in terms
of increasing flow, but further, that
the building of skid trails and land¬
ings probably did not play a role in
increasing even modest run-offs for,
if they had, they should have mea¬
surably increased flow peaks
throughout the year, not just in
the fall.

Why did logging affect only Fall
storms? Ziemer theorizes that the
forested watersheds are initially drier
than logged watersheds (trees use
more water than no trees) and,
therefore, have a greater capacity to
absorb moisture. But as soon as soil
in the unlogged watershed becomes
as wet as that in the logged area,
the two perform identically from then
on.

In a separate review of the data from
Caspar Creek, Rice and co-workers
Karen H. Sendek and Robert B.
Thomas, found that hydrographs
(plots of run-off with time) were
shifted forward in time after the area
was logged. They found that al¬
though peak flows did not change
much throughout the year, the
logged watershed did respond more
quickly to rainfall. “This finding
agrees with published engineering
studies of agricultural and urban
watersheds," Rice said.

Average lag times from storm peak
to flow peak decreased by 1.5
hours. Lag times associated with
larger storms shortened by as much
as 3 hours. The only storms to show
an increase in lag time were those
occurring early in the season. Since
Ziemer had shown these Fall run-off
volumes to be high in logged zones,
Rice believes it is likely that it was
the larger, broader hydrographs that
yielded the longer lag times.

12

Logging roads will be built mid-slope, with
cable yarding on the steeper lower slopes and
tractor yarding on the gentler upper slopes.

“By creating skid trails, roads and
other packed surfaces impervious to
water, logging, overall, increases the
rate of run-off,’’ Rice said. He added,
however, that since the hydrographs
were moved forward in time but
were unchanged in shape, logging
“didn’t seem to have an adverse
effect on the watershed.”

Rice acknowledged, however, that
an unwanted impact might be occur¬
ring downstream where, for example,
tributaries from logged and un¬
touched watersheds join but whose
peak flows are normally unsynchron¬
ized. After logging, flow at the junc¬
tion of the two streams could be¬
come synchronized with flow effects
summing. He noted that the opposite
scenario is also a possibility: that
synchronized effects downstream
could become uncoupled and have
some kind of a beneficial effect on
lower reaches of the basin.

It’s just such complicated interactions
between different watersheds and
logging activities that Rice and his
colleagues are addressing in the
second Caspar Creek study.

Caspar Creek: 1985-1994

For the second study the roles of the
two watersheds have been switched.
The now-stabilized South Fork will be
used as a control while, in the North
Fork, separate catchments will be
clearcut, clearcut and burned, or left
unlogged. As in the first study on the
South Fork, 60 percent of the trees
will be removed.

“The move to clearcutting reflects a
change in silviculture practices,”
says Rice. “Foresters weren’t getting
the growth rates and regeneration
they expected with partial cutting,”
he said.

Another difference will be the pre¬
dominant use of skyline yarding to
harvest trees. Less than 30 percent
of the timber volume will be removed
using tractors, and then only on
gentler slopes. This change should
lead to much less ground distur¬
bance and soil compaction than
occurred when the South Fork was
logged.

As in the first study, researchers will
be monitoring storm sediment dis¬
charge and stream flow parameters
before, during, and after roadbuild¬
ing and logging. However, their
study methods and equipment have
been improved since the 1967-76
experiment. For one thing, statistician
for the group, Robert Thomas, has
been able to develop a new sedi¬
ment sampling technique that yields
very accurate estimates of sediment
discharge.

“Past analyses of stream suspended
sediment yields underestimated ac¬
tual values by as much as 50 per¬
cent,” Rice said.

Other improvements include the
addition of 13 stream gaging sta¬
tions, each under microprocessor
control (waterlevel recorders provide
back-up should the microprocessor
fail or be damaged).

Just as logging practices and mea¬
surement techniques have changed
since the sixties, so too have defini¬
tions of effects which are of interest
to the public and the subject of
regulations.

“This time,” notes Rice, “The
Caspar Creek study will be designed
differently, owing to a number of
legislative initiatives. Forest practice
rules have changed substantially,”
he said.

13

The new requirements were placed
on forestry by the National Environ¬
mental Policy Act (NEPA), and the
Clean Water Act (PL92-500). The lat¬
ter Act, passed in 1972, mandates
the development of plans to reduce
non-point source pollution from ac¬
tivities such as timber harvesting.
NEPA directs governmental agencies
to consider cumulative effects of
pollution when assessing environ¬
mental impacts.

Cumulative effects

“A cumulative effect,” explained
Rice, “is when one acceptable activ¬
ity interacts with another acceptable
activity and produces something
unacceptable.”

As an example, Rice gives the hypo¬
thetical case of a factory that dis¬
charges organic pollutants into a
stream at acceptable concentrations
but when the compounds are taken
into a water treatment plant down¬
stream, they are converted into
harmful chlorinated compounds in
concentrations that exceed water-
quality guidelines.

"It is conceivable that cumulative
effects may occur in a watershed
basin subsequent to activities like
freeway construction, farming, or
logging,” Rice said.

In spite of sediment dilution over
distance, Rice sees the possibility for
adverse scenarios. For instance, it's
possible that small, high-gradient
watersheds subjected to logging
might transport sediment to another
stream with less power, where the
sediment settles out, possibly lessen¬
ing the quality of habitat for spawn¬
ing fish.

In the new study, Rice and col¬
leagues will be measuring sediment
in watersheds where no activity is
taking place, watersheds where a
portion is being clearcut, and those
with parts clearcut and burned.

"We will be testing the hypothesis
that if there are cumulative effects,
disturbance of a given proportion of
an upstream watershed will have less
impact than will the same proportion
of disturbance to a larger down¬
stream watershed,” Rice said. “If the
sediment delivery from one area is
interacting with the sediment delivery
from another and the effects are
picked up downstream as a joint ef¬
fect that’s greater than would have
been expected from analysis of a
similar smaller watershed, then
cumulative effects will have been
demonstrated,” he explained.

In addition to sediment changes after
roadbuilding and logging, scientists
will be looking for changes in the
timing of storm run-off as well as
possible effects on fish habitat and
populations.

“We got our first year's data last
winter. We'll get more calibration
data in '87, ’88, and '89 and then
we will log the area and run the ex¬
periment for another four years or so
to see how it’s performing,” Rice
said.

Planned studies on
fisheries

Concurrent to the cumulative effects
studies, Fishery Biologist Lynn M.
Decker will be studying the effects of
logging on fish habitat and survival.

“The impact of logging on steelhead
and salmon is an important issue
and always has been,” says Decker.

Flowever, it’s difficult to link directly
the effects of watershed processes to
fish survival because of the multitude
of indirect physical and biological
factors that can affect the number of
fish produced and whether or not
fish will reach the smolt stage. “How
does one account for bad years in
the ocean, or fishing pressure on
what we see on-site in the stream?”
Decker asks.

In an effort to answer this question
Decker has introduced fish in equal
numbers into both forks of Casper
Creek and will watch how they
respond to the habitat area and
volume available to them before,
during, and after logging.

“We are assuming that the fish at
Casper Creek will stay or leave,
depending on the quality of the
habitat,” Decker said.

One way logging could reduce
habitat is by introducing large
amounts of sediment into a stream.
Pools could fill, reducing habitat
volume. Alternatively, sediment could
alter the quality of the stream bot¬
tom. “I’ve learned from some of my
earlier work that coho salmon tend
not to spend as much time in sandy
bottom pools as they do in ones with
coarser substrates,” Decker said.

14

*o

>-

c

CD

E

T3

CD

l/)

"D

CD

“O

c

CD

CL

c/)

3

(/)

ro

ZJ

C

C

<

10 30 50 70 90 no

NQ25(ft3/s/mi2)

b South Fork

SQ25 (ft 3/s/m i2)

Annual sediment discharge of the forks as
related to stream power as indexed by 025
(the mean discharge for the top 25 percent of
the flow volume).

The effects of logging on fish survival
may not be all detrimental, however.

“One of the direct effects of logging
may be that trees get knocked into
the stream channel and streamflow
scours even more good habitats,”
Decker observed.

To follow the movement of fish in
and out of Caspar Creek’s two forks
on a day-to-day basis, Decker has
installed wire box traps to monitor
upstream and downstream move¬
ments of fish in the study sections.

“At any point in time I will know the
total number of fish in each of the
creek's sections,” she said. Fish
numbers and survival will be corre¬
lated with sedimentation, hydraulic,
and habitat data before, during, and
several years after logging.

By the end of the Caspar Creek
study in the middle of the next
decade, there should be a sizeable
quantity of data from which conclu¬
sions can be made regarding the
short- and long-term effects that
modern logging practices have on
fish habitat availability and quality.
Along with the findings on sediment
discharge and flow effects, the
research project promises to provide
valuable new insights into the multi¬
faceted, and often surprising, effects
of man’s removal of timber from
forests. The most important of these
may be findings related to cumula¬
tive watershed effects.

More details are available in A
Watershed’s Response to Logging
and Roads: South Fork of Caspar
Creek, California, 1967-1976,
Research Paper PSW-146. Copies
are available from the Pacific South¬
west Station.

15

Hand-held data

recorder

changes

inventory

system

by Dorothy [Bergstrom
Pacific Northwest Station

The Husky Hunter in a cloth carrying case
designed for field use.

Finding a programmable data re¬
corder suitable for field use triggered
changes in data-handling that have
resulted in a more efficient system
for conducting the periodic inventory
of forest resources on private land in
Oregon, Washington, California,
Hawaii, and the western Pacific.

According to John Poppino, leader
of the Pacific Northwest Station re¬
search unit responsible for conduct¬
ing periodic forest inventories, the
new system is proving satisfactory
beyond anyone’s expectations. “The
spectacular change is based on the
willingness of our data-collection staff
to throw away the pencil and learn
how to convert the tally card to a
computer program for the data
recorder,” he says.

The essential change is that data-
collection crews record directly into
recorders and do the initial editing
for erroneous codes and missed
data before they leave the plot.
“When they leave a plot, they can
be confident they have done a good
job," Poppino says. At the end of
the day, back at the motel, they
transfer the data to a microcomputer
for additional editing and transfer to
a diskette that is then returned to the
lab in Portland, where the compila¬
tion and analysis are done and
reports are written.

Although forest inventory units in
other parts of the country are work¬
ing with data recorders, the Pacific
Northwest Station is the first to evalu¬
ate a broad range of recorders for
field use and the first to have an
alpha-numeric data-capture editing
program.

The new system is faster and less
expensive than the old one, Poppino
says. Putting data directly on re¬
corders eliminates keypunching and
the chance for making errors in
copying. This move alone saves time
and reduces costs. Because clean
data are available for analysis soon¬
er, accurate information is available
earlier to analysts, economists, forest
planners, and others who need facts
about conditions on private forest
land. A process that used to take
more than a year can now be done
in a few months and in the future
may be shortened to weeks.

The key to success of the new sys¬
tem, Poppino says, was the decision
to make the data-collection crew
responsible for giving clean data to
the computer applications group.

This meant learning how to program
the computer. “But almost as impor¬
tant,” he says, “has been the fringe
benefit of job enrichment, as people
have been allowed to restructure
their jobs.”

16

The data recorder that triggered the
change was discovered by Poppino
in the spring of 1984. At a profes¬
sional meeting, he saw a program¬
mable instrument that looked promis¬
ing. The idea of recording data
directly into recorders in the field had
been discussed for some time, but
until then no appropriate instrument
was available.

The Forest Inventory and Analysis
staff had already identified the char¬
acteristics needed in an instrument
suitable for field use. In addition to
meeting standards for technical
capability, the instrument had to be
easy to operate and require a mini¬
mum of training time for users. It also
had to be stable and durable under
the conditions encountered by data-
collection crews; for example, it had
to be shockproof, waterproof, and
dustproof. It had to be light enough
to carry all day and small enough to
fit in the pocket of a cruiser’s vest.
The batteries had to last at least a
full day and be easy to change.

After seeing what he considered a
candidate recorder at the meeting,
Poppino asked one of his staff to
find out where to borrow the instru¬
ment for examination. In a short time,
the staff member was conducting a
full-scale test to rank 12 program¬
mable data recorders against a list of
characteristics needed for fieldwork.

Only one instrument ranked high in
all characteristics. It was the instru¬
ment that had impressed Poppino
earlier— the Husky Hunter, built in
England and originally designed for
British Army gunnery exercises. It
weighed about 2V2 pounds. It could
be programmed to store and edit
data; store codes; calculate slope,
distance, and tree heights; convert
English measure to metric units; and
do all the other tasks required. It also
permitted editing on the plot and
could be hooked up to other equip¬
ment that would print out data and
transmit them to another computer.
The cost was reasonable. The Forest
Inventory and Analysis unit bought
several instruments for trial.

Writing program

Although none of the data-collection
staff was experienced in program¬
ming, Poppino assigned them that
responsibility. He was convinced that
their intimate knowledge of how to
collect data could not be duplicated
by others and that they could be
trained to program the data recorder.
“We wanted to program the instru¬
ment to help with the job, rather than
expecting the data collectors to
adapt to a computer program written
by non-experts,’’ he said. So the
people who tramped the forest, got
stung by bees, and slipped on wet
vegetation, learned how to instruct
their new electronic servant. They
figured out how to create a plot card
on the computer and how to write a
program that would also monitor
their work, remind them of items they
might miss, and refuse to cooperate
if they tried to enter data in the
wrong code or record measurements
out of scale.

By taking on the responsibility of
handing “clean’’ data to the people
who compute statistics, analyze data,
and eventually write reports, the
data-collection staff carried the inven¬
tory process several steps beyond
what used to be done. It wasn’t
easy. They added computer stress to
the physical hardships they were
used to, but in the process they
added excitement to their jobs and
the satisfaction of meeting new
challenges. They not only created a
much better product, but they
learned new skills and took on
new responsibilities that are still
expanding.

How they do it now

As a result of the new system, forest
inventory is now considered a year-
round job. In the past, when early
summer arrived, there was a push to
get into the field and collect data,
but the tally cards often piled up in
the office while work on ownership
data and analysis of aerial photos
was being done. Now, crews do not
head for the field until all prepara¬
tions have been made.

“The end is not in sight,” says Pop¬
pino, “the process is continuing as
the data-collection staff explores new
applications for the data recorder
and their skills as programmers.”
Already they have begun work on
computer programs to use the data
recorder to organize information from
aerial photos in the lab and to take it
to the county courthouse and use it
for collecting and verifying data on
plot ownership.

17

The travel case serves as a portable work sta¬
tion, about 2 feet wide and 2 feet deep . It fits
on top of most motel furniture and in the back
of a vehicle similar to a Blazer or Jeep . When
loaded, it weighs less than 40 pounds.

Foam padding secures equipment: a micro¬
computer and power converter, a printer and
supply of paper, a power-surge protector, soft¬
ware user manuals, extra batteries, and extra
diskettes.

One outlet supplies enough power to run the
system.

At the motel, the Husky is connected to the
printer.

Field plot data are printed.

The printed copy is reviewed, and comments
that might be helpful are added.

Separate cables connect the three pieces of
equipment and must be hooked up correctly.

/A diskette containing communications software
is inserted into the microcomputer to allow
transfer of field plot data to the
microcomputer

18

A diskette that will hold 2 weeks' worth of field transfer of data from the Husky to the micro¬
plot data is loaded into the microcomputer for computer and filing on a separate diskette

After files are transferred from the Husky to diskette is made,

the microcomputer, a backup copy of the

Poppino credits his entire staff with
willingness to break out of familiar
routines and move creatively to im¬
prove the inventory system, in the
wake of the data collection staff’s
pioneering work to produce a prac¬
tical computer program for collecting
and editing data.

Certain individuals on the data-
collection staff have been particularly
creative and have played key roles,
according to Dale Baer, their super¬
visor. Bruce Hiserote was respon¬
sible for the initial attempt at pro¬
gramming and is now improving the
field data-collection programs. Jim
Harrow planned and conducted the
test of candidate data recorders and
is doing additional programming for
recording ownership data. Steve
Hiebert designed the cloth carrying
case for the Husky. Jeff Jenkins
designed and built the portable
wooden equipment case. Barbara
Beil is developing programs for
recording photo interpretation data,
and Jim Hildreth has developed a
program for recording the map point
data.

Poppino thinks the programmable,
portable data recorder will become
an important tool for workers in other
disciplines, who are already explor¬
ing possibilities. These include gene¬
ticists, silviculturists, forest consul¬
tants, and people who work in
presale inventory.

The new inventory procedure has
not yet been described in the techni¬
cal literature, and Poppino and his
staff welcome inquiries about the in¬
ventory procedure or performance of
the data recorder. They can be
reached at 503/231-2249 or
503/231-2117, FTS-423-2249.

19

New

Publications

Fuel loading and fire
behavior

Surface fuel loading is an important
component of mathematical models
that predict fire behavior. In a new
Intermountain Research Station pub¬
lication, Scientist James Brown
reports a great deal of variability of
surface fuels with vegetation types.
According to Brown, the implications
of this finding is that managers need
not spend time and money devising
ways to appraise fuels for large scale
planning efforts— just a few fuel
models are needed to appraise fire
behavior for broad vegetation types.

However, Brown points out that
when managers are planning specific
activities, such as a prescribed burn,
they can’t rely on broad fuel models
to accurately portray the situation. In
such instances, visits to the site are
necessary to accurately appraise fuel
loads.

Persons modeling fuels and fire be¬
havior will find the fuel loading data
and discussion of mean and median
loading contained in this publication
to be helpful.

Forest manager’s
guide to western
spruce budworm

Managing Trees and Stands Suscep¬
tible to Western Spruce Budworm is
a guide for detecting and evaluating
effects or potential effects of the
western spruce budworm in man¬
aged forests. It provides methods for
comparing management strategies,
and support for making budworm-
related decisions. The book focuses
on the effects of budworm on trees
and stands, and outlines operations
for detection, evaluation, and control.
It uses a new approach to managing
budworm problems that includes
direct suppression, but emphasizes
forest management to reduce
susceptibility.

Chapter 1 looks at historical factors
affecting forest health and productiv¬
ity, including fire, logging, and in¬
sects and disease. Other chapters
discuss the western budworm, its life
history and hosts, and natural
regulating factors. The effects of bud¬
worm infestations, susceptibility of
sites and stands, and the role of the
insect in forest succession are ex¬
amined. Survey and sampling
methods for population and damage
assessment, detection, and evalua¬
tion, and different methods for rating
the hazard of stands to western
spruce budworm are also discussed.

To obtain a copy of the report, re¬
quest Surface Fuel Loadings and
Predicted Fire Behavior for Vegeta¬
tion Types in the Northern Rocky
Mountains, Research Note I NT-358

20

Of particular interest to forest man¬
agers are Chapters 7 and 8. Chapter
7 looks at tactics for dealing with
budworm in western forests, in¬
cluding direct application of chemical
or biological agents, and indirect
manipulation of the budworm’s
habitat— the forest. In Chapter 8,
decisionmaking processes for select¬
ing these management tactics are
discussed, and step-by-step case
studies are provided.

Western Spruce Budworm and
Forest Management Planning , a
related management guide for forest
planners, is in the process of
publication. Full documentation for
the underlying concepts and current
theories related to budworm will be
provided in Western Spruce Bud¬
worm (also soon to be published),
which is a synthesis of current knowl¬
edge about the insect and its hosts.

It provides the technical and scien¬
tific background for the recom¬
mendations in both guides.

To request Managing Trees and
Stands Susceptible to Western
Spruce Budworm, contact the Pacific
Northwest Research Station for Tech¬
nical Bulletin 1695.

Shelterwood
regeneration of
true fir

Natural regeneration has some signif¬
icant short-term disadvantages, in¬
cluding lack of stocking control and
uncertainty of timing. Therefore,
planting has become the dominant
method of regeneration in California
and elsewhere. However, natural
regeneration is clearly an option if
the planning, economic, or legal dis¬
advantages (arising from uncertain
timing) can be resolved.

Natural regeneration of true fir forests
has been the focus of research at
Swain Mountain Experimental Forest,
in northeastern California, since
1958. This Forest covers 5,998 acres
and occupies essentially all of Swain
Mountain, an asymmetric volcanic
cone with a steep southern face,
covered by an old brush field
planted to Jeffrey pine, and long,
gentle slopes covered by old-growth
true fir forests on the other expo¬
sures. One study, using small shelter-
wood blocks, was started in 1970
and 3-year results were published in
1979. Those results have been ex¬
tended through 1978, providing
several useful findings.

For instance, scientists observed that,
if leave trees are carefully chosen for
their capacity to produce seed and
to remain standing after a shelter-
wood cut, as few as 10 trees per
acre were adequate to regenerate

old-growth stands of red fir and
white fir. Additional trees simply
make protection of the established
regeneration more difficult during
removal of shelterwood. In addition,
if the shelterwood is left standing for
more than 4 years, regeneration suf¬
fers less under 10 trees per acre
than at the other levels tested.

Their findings also show that in areas
like Swain Mountain, where the forest
cover is a mixture of red and white
firs, regeneration is likely to be pre¬
dominately red fir, even if red fir
represents only a minor component
of the shelterwood.

Clearly, the establishment of seed¬
lings did not follow the general pat¬
tern of cone production on Swain
Mountain Experimental Forest which
suggests that, if appropriate seed
trees are chosen, it may not be
necessary to schedule harvesting or
site preparation to coincide with a
“good” seed year. However, before
any realistic conclusion can be
drawn, actual data must be collected
on seed production patterns in
shelterwoods.

Details are in Shelterwood Regenera¬
tion of True Fir: Conclusions after 8
Years, Research Paper PSW-184,
available from the Pacific Southwest
Station.

21

Timber resource
statistics for
California

Five publications, concisely highlight¬
ing timber resource information for
California, are now available from the
Pacific Northwest Station. Each
report presents information by sub¬
regional resource area.

Tables in the reports cover total
forest area, timber volume, growth,
and mortality data. Timberland area,
species composition, general stand
types, and land ownership patterns
are briefly highlighted, and each
report also contains a short discus¬
sion of inventory procedures and
reliability of inventory data.

Timber Resource Statistics for the
North Coast Resource Area of
California (Resource Bulletin PNW-
131) provides statistics for Del Norte,
Humboldt, Mendocino, and Sonoma
Counties. The north coast resource
area contains an estimated 3.6
million acres of timberland with 13.8
billion cubic feet of standing timber—
about 25 percent of the State's grow¬
ing stock. For over three decades,
the North Coast has produced 35 to
40 percent of the State’s industrial
wood products.

Timber Resource Statistics for the
San Joaquin and Southern California
Resource Areas (Resource Bulletin
PNW-132) deals with two resource
areas containing over half of the
State's land area, yet only 15 per¬
cent (2.4 million acres) of its timber¬
land. Growing stock inventoried for
these areas, which encompass
Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Fresno,
Imperial, Inyo, Kern, Kings, Los
Angeles, Madera, Mariposa, Merced,
Mono, Orange, Riverside, San Ber¬
nardino, San Diego, San Joaquin,
Stanislaus, Tulare, and Tuolumne
Counties, is estimated at 8.5 billion
cubic feet.

Timber Resource Statistics for the
Central Coast Resource Area of
California (Resource Bulletin PNW-
133) provides statistics for Alameda,
Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, San
Benito, San Luis Obispo, San Mateo,
Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa
Cruz, Solano, and Ventura Counties.
Total growing stock volume is esti¬
mated at 2 billion cubic feet on
about 340,000 acres of timberland.

Timber Resource Statistics for the
Sacramento Resource Area of Cali¬
fornia (Resource Bulletin PNW-134)
provides information on 4.2 million
acres of timberland containing 15
billion cubic feet of growing stock.
About a third of the Sacramento
resource area is timberland. Counties
inventoried for this report were Butte,
Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Lake,
Napa, Nevada, Placer, Plumas,
Sacramento, Sierra, Sutter, Tehama,
Yolo, and Yuba.

Timber Resource Statistics for the
Northern Interior Resource Area of
California (Resource Bulletin PNW-
135) reports statistics for Lassen,
Modoc, Shasta, Siskiyou, and Trinity
Counties. The northern interior
resource area contains 16 billion
cubic feet (29 percent) of California’s
timber volume, and about 35 percent
(5.2 million acres) of the State's
timberland. The Northern Interior
area accounts for 25 to 30 percent
of the State's timber production,
second to the North Coast area.

The Pacific Northwest Station, as part
of the nationwide Forest Inventory
and Analysis project, is responsible
for timber inventories in California,
Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington.
Information in these five publications
was collected during inventories con¬
ducted from 1981 to 1984.

For copies of the reports, contact the
Pacific Northwest Station.

22

Testing avalanche
runout equations

The maximum runout distance for
snow avalanches is a matter of great
concern in populated mountainous
areas. Residents usually have
learned to cope with the "normal”
avalanches at known sites. However,
the infrequent, long-running ava¬
lanche can cause heavy damage
because it invades areas previously
considered safe. Runout distances
are also important in uninhabitated
areas where transportation routes
and recreational areas can be
threatened.

The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
recently developed a set of emper-
ical equations for predicting max¬
imum avalance runout distances.
However, these equations are for the
Norwegian climate and terrain, and
never were tested for other areas—
until now.

Research out of the Rocky Mountain
Station has found that the Norwegian
predictions are sometimes incorrect
for avalanches in other locations.
Studies conducted in North America
and Switzerland show that although

the equations predict well for most
paths, they consistently underesti¬
mate runout distance for certain
types of paths, such as those with a
longitudinal profile shaped like a
hockey stick, i.e., a slightly concave
track that changed abruptly to a flat
or near flat runout surface.

Details on these findings and new
equations that were developed from
the test data are available in the
reprint A Test of the Avalanche
Runout Equations Developed by the
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute.
Copies are available from the Rocky
Mountain Station.

23

Son of CHEAPO

Since its introduction in 1979,
CHEAPO, a computer-based eco¬
nomic analysis program, has allowed
users of the Stand Prognosis Model
to evaluate silvicultural alternatives
from an economic point of view.
However, recent modifications to the
Prognosis Model have rendered
CHEAPO obsolete.

Now a new Intermountain Station
report provides a user’s guide for a
new computer model, CHEAPO II.
The new program allows users of the
Prognosis Model to analyze the eco¬
nomic aspects of management treat¬
ments projected by the latest version
of the Prognosis Model and its asso¬
ciated extensions: the Regeneration
Establishment Model and the
Douglas-fir Tussock Moth Outbreak
Model.

CHEAPO II is designed to allow flex¬
ibility in the types of stands that can
be analyzed, the types of manage¬
ment regimes analyzed, and the
types of economic analyses under¬
taken. It represents a powerful tool
for analyzing proposed investments
in stand management alternatives.

Request User's Guide to CHEAPO II
— Economic Analysis of Stand Prog¬
nosis Model Outputs , General Tech¬
nical Report I NT -21 1 .

Grizzly bear habitat

symposium

proceedings

The Interagency Grizzly Bear Com¬
mittee (IGBC) was established in
1983 to coordinate research and
management of grizzly bears in the
lower 48 states. The IGBC spon¬
sored a Grizzly Bear Habitat Sym¬
posium on April 30-May 2, 1985 for
scientists and managers to share in¬
formation and develop better under¬
standing of habitat management for
grizzly bears. Over 350 participants
from land management agencies, in¬
dustry, universities, and Federal and
State research organizations traveled
to Missoula, MT, to attend.

An Intermountain Research Station
report provides the proceedings of
this symposium. The report contains
33 papers and three abstracts in¬
cluding state-of-the-art information on
grizzly bear habitat delineation and
management. Topics are general
habitat concerns, considerations, and
conditions; mapping and evaluation;
habitat improvement and coordina¬
tion; and cumulative effects of
activities on habitat.

Request, Proceedings— Grizzly Bear
Habitat Symposium, General Tech¬
nical Report INT-207.

Preventing fire
retardant corrosion

Fire control agencies in the United
States use millions of gallons of fire
retardant annually in the suppression
of wildfires. The chemical salt solu¬
tions used as fire retardants corrode
metal. This corrosion can destroy the
equipment used for mixing, storing,
and applying fire retardants, resulting
in loss of hundreds of thousands of
dollars every fire season. In addition
to the economic loss, corrosion of
equipment, particularly aircraft, can
create safety hazards.

A new Intermountain Station report
provides guidelines to help those
who operate and maintain airtankers
and ground support equipment to
fight corrosion. The guidelines con¬
tained in this four-color report de¬
scribe the corrosive action of fire
retardants and tell how to control or
minimize corrosion of airtankers and
ground support equipment.

To obtain a copy of this report, re¬
quest Guidelines for Preventing Fire
Retardant Corrosion, General Tech¬
nical Report INT-210.

24

Using indicator
plants to assess
susceptibility to the
fir engraver beetle

In the environmentally diverse forests
of northern California, the indicator
plant approach has shown promise
for productivity assessment. Because
of the typically long, dry summers in
northern California, trees may often
undergo high moisture stress, and
plant indicators of site xericity or
“droughtiness” could be a particu¬
larly useful management tool.

Griffin identified indicator plants to
develop a Vegetation Drought Index
(VDI) for forests in the Pit River drain¬
age of the Cascade Range in north¬
ern California. VDI, expressed as the
average of the drought values of the
indicator species found on a plot,
ranged from 3.0 (least xeric) to 6.7
(most xeric). Because most useful
indicator plants could be found on
most sites even after drastic distur¬
bances, the VDI for a site should
remain relatively constant over time.

Trees under high moisture stress are
generally more susceptible to insects
and diseases, suggesting that a VDI
may predict susceptibility to these
pests.

Pacific Southwest Station Entomol¬
ogist George Ferrell used VDI to
estimate the susceptibility of Califor¬
nia red and white firs to the fir en¬
graver beetle ( Scolytus ventral is).

This bark beetle attacks and kills true
firs (Abies species) throughout much
of western North America, and
droughts often result in outbreaks
that cause widespread tree mortality.
Their evaluation was carried out for
northern California forests where
these true firs ( Abies species) occur
in mixed conifer and true fir stands.
Midway through the summer
drought, true fir moisture stress— a
known predisposing factor— was
highest on sites with highest VDI
values (most xeric). In mixed conifer
stands, the susceptibility of white
firs— as indicated by the mean per¬
centage of their basal area killed
annually— was highest on sites with
highest VDI values. But in true fir
stands, the susceptibility of mixed
red and white firs was highest on
sites with the lowest VDI values.

The contrasting results from the
mixed conifer and true fir stands may
have been attributable to differences
in site xericity. Based on their VDI,
the mixed conifer sites were more
xeric (range 3.6-5. 1) than were true
fir sites (2.3-3. 7). Differences in the
degree to which site xericity deter¬
mine stand susceptibility to the fir
engraver are probably attributable to
the site elevations.

The results suggest how plant in¬
dicators of site xericity might be used
to predict susceptibility of true firs to
the engraver in mixed conifer and
true fir stands in California. Indicator
plants will have to be developed for
other regions in California before the
use of VDI can be evaluated for
them. Regression models with VDI,
stand basal area, and percentage of
true fir as regressors lacked the re¬
quired predictive range and preci¬
sion, suggesting that VDI will likely
have to be used in combination with
predictors other than, or in addition
to, those analyzed.

Additional information is in Using In¬
dicator Plants to Assess Susceptibility
of California Red Fir and White Fir to
the Fir Engraver Beetle, Research
Note PSW-388. The Pacific South¬
west Station has copies.

25

Sawdust helps
reclaim bentonite
spoils

Success at reclaiming bentonite mine
spoils in the Northern Plains does
not come easy. One of the main ob¬
stacles involves the infiltration rate of
water into plant growth media. Pre¬
cipitation is sparse in this region, and
when it does fall, little filters into the
hard clay spoils.

Scientists at the Rocky Mountain Sta¬
tion have found that amendment of
sawdust into the spoils can increase
the infiltration rate up to 300 percent
over non-amended spoils— a mean
infiltration rate that is only slightly
lower than the mean for all range-soil
groups in the Northern Plains.

Studies show that other amendments
such as gypsum and inorganic fer¬
tilizers were not as effective as
sawdust.

If you would like more information,
write the Rocky Mountain Station and
request the reprint Infiltration Rate of
Bentonite Mine Spoil as Affected by
Amendments of Gypsum, Sawdust
and Inorganic Fertilizer.

26

oU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1987: 776-033/65200

To order any of the publications listed in this issue of Forestry Research West , use the order cards
below. All cards require postage. Please remember to use your Zip Code on the return address.

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STAMP _ STAMP

Pacific Rim markets
for construction-
grade logs

Markets for small, lower-grade soft¬
wood roundwood logs will expand
steadily through 1995, according to
Potential Pacific Rim Demand for
Construction-Grade Softwood Logs
by Donald F. Flora and Richard P.
Vlosky, Recently published by the
Pacific Northwest Research Station.

The publication attempts to answer
questions about supply and demand
for construction-grade logs in a multi¬
country Pacific Rim geographic con¬
text. Principal suppliers within the
Pacific Rim are Canada, Chile, New
Zealand, the United States, and the
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Expected purchasers are China,
Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

According to the research, construc¬
tion-grade logs compete with U.S.
number 3 coastal hemlock saw logs,
6 to 12 inches in diameter; radiata
pine from Chile and New Zealand;
and all but the largest Soviet soft¬
wood logs from eastern Siberia and
the Soviet Union Far East.

Projections of demand and supply
for construction-grade logs were esti¬
mated for 1990 and 1995 for each
supplying and consuming country
around the Pacific Rim. After adjust¬
ments for transportation costs, ex¬
change rates, and inflation, these
separate supply equations were
summed to provide an aggregate
Pacific-wide supply function. A
similar process was applied to
demand.

According to the research, log sup¬
plies will lag slightly behind demand
until 1990, generating about a 10-
percent increase in prices, which are
expected to be level thereafter.

United States exports of construction-
grade logs are projected to increase
35 percent by 1990, and another 23
percent by 1995.

The Pacific rim market for construc¬
tion-grade logs is projected to ex¬
pand significantly through 1995, with
demand outpacing supply until 1990.
For the subsequent half-decade,
supply and demand should shift
together.

Economic conditions in each country
affecting the supply of (or demand
for) construction-grade logs are dis¬
cussed, along with assumptions
made for each country. Composite
results for the Pacific Rim, which
determine estimated Rim-wide prices
and log flows, are covered in the
final section. More economic detail
for each country considered is avail¬
able in the appendix.

For more information, request Re¬
search Paper PNW-364 from the
Pacific Northwest Station.

Patch cutting and
the water balance

Scientists at the Rocky Montain Sta¬
tion have completed plot studies in a
Colorado subalpine forest that tested
the effect of patch clearcutting on
water balance of the site. Although
many studies have demonstrated
that openings in the forest canopy
do increase snow accumulation and
streamflow, this latest research was
designed to: (1) investigate the effect
of a forest opening on the accumula¬
tion and melt of the snowpack in
both the opening and in the sur¬
rounding forest; (2) determine if there
are any differences in soil moisture
recharge between the forest and the
opening; and (3) quantify the evapor¬
ative components of the hydrologic
cycle for a specific site, to determine
how the creation of a small opening
alters the water balance.

Research results are detailed in the
reprint The Effect of Patch Clear-
cutting on the Water Balance of a
Subalpine Forest Slope. Copies are
available from the Rocky Mountain
Station.

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