Hill, James Jerome

Address delivered by
Mr, James J. Hill before the
Farmers! national congress

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ADDRESS

DELIVERED BY

Mr. JAMES J. HILL

BEFORE THE

FARMERS’ NATIONAL CONGRESS
MADISON, WISCONSIN

SEPTEMBER 24, 1908

It has often happened in gatherings to promote
the interest of agriculture or irrigation or water-
Ways or some other national undertaking, that so
many side issues have crept in as to interfere with
the work and weaken the conclusions of the con-
vention. To avoid this error should be your first
care; since it can have no effect upon a public that
has learned to discount all so-called official utter-
ances that are not germane to the body from which
they issue and the subject to which they are sup-
posed or pretend to relate; and since a wide scat-
tering of subjects must prevent that full discus-
sion of work and interests, which alone can make
it worth while for you to assemble in gatherings
such as this.

For this reason I will confine myself very close-
ly in what I have to say to the present state of the
agricultural interest in this country; to the emer-
gencies which ordinary foresight can distinguish

in its near future; and to those remedies and im-
al

provements which our knowledge suggests, and
which are not merely experimental but ascertain-
ed fact. What we are here for is to consider how
to increase the farmer’s successes, lessen his fail-
ures and place his work upon the most certain
foundation. His occupation is the first to exist
in a civilized state. It is the basis of all other in-
dustry. And only recently we are coming to re-_
alize that it is an exact science. The man no long-
er deserves the name of farmer who conceives of
his industry as a seratching of the earth, a hit-
or-miss scattering of seed and a harvesting of such
yield as soil and weather may permit. That is
not farming, but a game of chance. This is, there-
fore, a gathering of representatives of a profes-
sion; and as such it is a first duty to consider the
place of farm industry in the national economy,
and to what extent it is prepared to meet present
and future demands upon it. For grave national
concerns, the state of civilizations, the condition
of social life and the fate of institutions as well
as the farmer’s position and prosperity will de-
pend upon his readiness to meet the work surely
coming in the advancing years.

After an army has been raised and before it
can enter upon any campaign, the first consider-
ation is to provide its food. If that is a failure,
the bravest and best organized force will melt
away in a week. Our national supply of food, in
like manner, is fundamental to the organization

3)

of our social life and to the progress of all our
industries. Here we have so many people. Here
will be, in a few years, so many more. These
things are mathematically certain. What de-
mands will they make upon the country, and how
well is it prepared to meet them? No question
can be so fit for the consideration of a Farmers’
Congress. Indeed, it is difficult to intelligently
consider other questions until that one has been
settled. And it is far from settled now. Until
lately it seems scarcely to have been thought of,
and it is generally dismissed with the vague as-
sertion that ‘‘things will come out all right as they
always have’. A Farmers’ Congress should un-
derstand and prepare for the work that lies be-
fore the farmer, not in some indefinitely distant
future but within this and the next succeeding
generation.

It is as well assured as any future event can be
that the population of the United States will be
200,000,000 by about the middle of the present
century, or in less than fifty years. This is prov-
ed by the ratio of increase in the past. It may
come a few years later or a few years earlier ac-
cording to circumstances, for good times lift both
the immigration total and the domestic birth rate
while depression decreases both. However, this
is immaterial. Millions of persons now living will
see the 200,000,000 people here; and the first ques-
tion is how they are to be fed. There will be many

8

grave problems in such a human growth, but we
may for the time being dismiss all the others un-
til we have considered the primary one of the
bare maintenance of life. The food problem it-
self has numerous collateral issues, but for the
sake of simplicity we may here consider only the
matter of bread. Where and how are we to ob-
tain loaves enough to feed these coming millions?

The average yearly consumption of wheat per
capita varies considerably with seasons and pri-
ces, but it rises steadily with our constantly ad-
vancing standard of comfort. For the last three
years it has been either slightly under or slightly
over seven bushels for bread and seed. Suppose
that it is six and one-half bushels per capita, which
is certainly within the mark. It will then require,
unless we are to fall to a lower scale of living, a
total product of 1,300,000,000 bushels of wheat
for our bread supply, if we did not export any.
From 1880 to 1906 inclusive, our crop averaged
521,738,000 bushels annually. Twice only in our
history have we exceeded the 700,000,000 bushel
mark. It is fair to say that 650,000,000 bushels
is our present average capacity. Of course, with
increasing population may come a somewhat in-
creased total production, though it will not ad-
vance as rapidly as many suppose. We grew 904,-
185,470 bushels in 1882, when our population was
a little over 52,000,000, and 634,087,000 bushels
in 1907, twenty-five years later. The increase in

4

wheat yield, during these years when much of the
new lands of the West was being brought under
the plow, was a little over 25 per cent, while pop-
ulation increased 33,000,000, or over 63 per cent.
Obviously supply and demand for bread will not
keep pace through the working of any law of na-
ture.

Moreover, the increase of possible wheat yield
by increasing acreage is limited. We have no
longer an unlimited public domain awaiting the
plow. There will be some grown upon reclaimed
arid land, though this is mostly devoted to the
raising of fruit and fodder plants. There will
be some land drained, and there are a few acres
of public lands left where wheat may be raised.
But a denser population makes new demands up-
on the soil; and it is more likely on the whole that
the wheat acreage will be reduced, for raising all
the other commodities consumed by two hundred
million people, than that it will be enlarged. Noth-
ing but a material rise in price could accomplish
this; and we may, perhaps, assume that a steady
and certain price of one dollar or a dollar and a
quarter per bushel for wheat may raise our to-
tal annual product to 900,000,000 bushels, which
would be fifty per cent more than its present ay-
erage. This is the extreme limit of probability.
The country could under present methods do no
more unless it took land just as necessary for oth-
er purposes and devoted it to wheat raising. In

5

that case it would only imitate the man who tried
to make the legs of his trousers longer by cutting
strips off the bottom and sewing them around the
waistband. We are left, practically, with a short-
age of 400,000,000 bushels in our wheat supply,
even supposing that we consume every grain that
we raise. This amount we should have to pro-
cure from some other source. Where are we to
get it, and how is it to be paid for?

Canada can send us something, but not much.
By that time her own popuation will have grown,
and her needs with it, and so will the demand of
all the rest of the world. Russia and India and
Argentina and Australia together are scarcely
keeping up with the world’s present necessities.
Wheat bread and a high civilization go together;
and as labor conditions everywhere improve, more
and more people who once lived on black bread
or rice will have the white loaf. But if we grant
that the additional 400,000,000 bushels of wheat
will be supplied from some now undetermined
source, wherewith shall the bill be paid? We may
assume that, by that time, an average price of a
dollar and a quarter per bushel will prevail. This
will leave us debtor to somebody in international
trade to the amount of $500,000,000. We must
be prepared to send abroad that amount of some
commodity to foot the bill. We must also make
good the deficit occasioned by the cessation of
our exports of breadstuffs and provisions. In the

. 6

year ending June 30, 1908, we exported wheat
and wheat flour to the value, in round numbers, of
$164,000,000. That will be cut off. So we shall
have to find nearly $700,000,000 in all to pay our
food bill. That is one-third of the value of our
entire exports in the year 1908.

We cannot raise this vast amount annually by
increasing exports. Already the products of the
soil, the minerals and oils taken from the earth
and such raw materials as leather and lumber,
drawn immediately from earth’s products, con-
stitute two-thirds of our entire export trade. The
whole of our exports of manufactured goods oth-
er than products of the farm amounted to £480,-
700,000 in 1907. There is no fiction more firmly
fixed in the American mind than that we are cap-
turing foreign markets for our manufactured ar-
ticles. For the most part we are only artificial
competitors, and would have to withdraw from
the foreign field if we were obliged to depend up-
on our own industrial merits. Our factories could
not exist and pay the current scale of wages if they
received for their total product the prices now
charged the foreign purchaser. The American
manufacturer markets his surplus abroad for what
he can get, and recoups himself by the large pro-
fit which a high tariff permits him to charge the
home consumer. I do not intend to touch here
at all upon the merits or demerits of the tariff as
an economic proposition. But I state a mere busi-

7

ness fact when I say that the profits secured to
the manufacturer in the home market through
prices kept high by protection alone enable him
to sell even his small surplus of goods in the for-
eign market. Remove that, and our exports of
manufactured articles would cease. Already Can-
ada has a law against our dumping surplus man-
ufactures in their markets. On an equal basis
we could sell abroad only that small line of ma-
chinery which we make better than any other peo-
ples. And the imitative Chinese and Japanese,
as well as the workmen of Germany who are now
educated in their technical schools, are constantly
reducing the demand for our goods. We should
never be able to make a much better showing than
the figure we now cut in international commerce.
Rather we will be more than fortunate to hold
our own.

The relative advantage enjoyed in the past by
reason of our possession of vast stores of unused
raw material is disappearing. The time is ap-
proaching when we will be still less able to manu-
facture in competition with other peoples; when
tariff walls could not be built high enough to keep
out the intruder without crushing the life out of
our own people. It is a matter of fact familiar
to all of you that the progressive exhaustion of
our forests has multiplied the prices of lumber
within the past few years. Every farmer who

has built a house or barn or even a fence, unless
8

he had timber for it upon his own holding, has
felt the heavy tax. Now wood is an important
item in manufacture, and the cost of production
rises with its scarcity. Quite as disturbing is the
situation with reference to those other prime
necessaries of cheap manufacturing and competi-
tion in the world’s markets—coal and iron. We
are using now nearly 500,000,000 tons of coal an-
nually. At that rate the estimated total supply
of the United States would last 4,000 years, and
we need not disturb ourselves. But experience
has shown that our consumption of coal doubles
every ten years. That is the statistical record of
the past. If it holds good in the future, and there
is no reason why it may not, we shall be short of
good coal at reasonable prices where it is most
wanted before the end of the present century.
This is the pinch that Great Britain now feels,
in being obliged to resort to lower levels in her
coal mines to obtain fuel for her industries at an
enhanced cost. So serious is the situation that
she is already considering the propriety of an
export duty on coal. The same problem will face
us in the future of which I am speaking.

Much more pressing is the question of iron sup-
ply. This metal is the foundation of the world’s
industrial life. Our possession of great quanti-
ties of rich ore in the most available localities is
a great factor in our development. But last year
we consumed 50,000,000 tons of iron ore; and at

9

that rate the principal supplies, those in the Lake
Superior region, must be exhausted in about forty
years. There are nowhere else such large depos-
its known, and the country has been prospected
carefully. Perhaps the largest quantity anywhere
outside of the Appalachian country and the great
deposits in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan
is in Southern Utah. It is believed to amount to
about 75,000,000 tons all told. It would last us,
at our present rate of consumption, for eighteen
months; and consumption of iron is increasing
as steadily as that of coal. In 1897 our pig iron
product was 9,652,680 tons; in 1907 it was 25,781,-
361 tons. It costs now about $7 to transform a
ton of Lake Superior iron ore into pig iron, in-
cluding the cost of mining, transportation and
manufacture. With 60 per cent ore, where five
tons go to the making of three tons of pig, this
makes the actual cost of the iron $11.66 per ton.
Fifty per cent ore makes iron costing $14 per ton.
Forty per cent ore makes iron costing $17.50 per
ton. Low grade ores, like those of the Southern
states, can be used commercially because the ore,
limestone and coal are found in close proximity,
thus reducing the cost of manufacture.

But it is impossible for any of our product to
compete today in the world’s markets. The ay-
erage selling price in 1907 of the cheapest grades
of pig iron made in the United States was $21.06
per ton; of the best, $23.89. In Belgium, where

10

the cost of manufacture is decreasing all the time,
the latest available statistics, those for 1905, show
that the average market value of the country’s
entire pig iron product was $11.64 per ton. Such
a contrast mocks the idea of competition. In no
year of the last ten has any such average price
been known in the United States. Again the ex-
perience of Great Britain is instructive. She is
obliged today to import one-half as much iron
ore as she produces. She exports practically
none; she obtained in round numbers 6,000,000
tons from Spain in 1906. The changes in her in-
dustrial condition have at this moment reduced
Glasgow to treat with a besieging army of the
unemployed, have brought 4,000 men in London
to answer in person an advertisement for a por-
ter at $4.50 a week, and have practically given
the government over to a growing socialism. We
are not in that plight yet; but we are already
where we cannot, without changing our wage scale
and revolutionizing our industrial system, pro-
duce pig iron cheaply enough to compete with
Europe. And forty or fifty years hence, with our
enormously increased demand for the metal that
has made progress possible, and our depletion of
its supply, we shall be in no position to meet the
foreigner in trade or to furnish from this source a
fund to purchase food.

It is sufficient to state conditions thus broadly.
They enforce their own conclusions. All the im-

11

portant items in consumption and in export show
that we have a hard master to reckon with by the
middle of this century; and that we must develop
from some quarter occupation and a food supply
for more than 110,000,000 additional people. It
should be such as will maintain a standard of liv-
ing no lower than that which now prevails if we
are not to witness terrible social and political con-
vulsions.

It is as clear as any future event can be that
the farm is the only hope of our national salvation.
Just as it is today the real source of our wealth,
the mainspring of our domestic commerce that
exceeds the trade of all Hurope combined, so must
we draw upon it for coming needs. All else suf-
fers progressive exhaustion and will be a poorer
dependence a generation hence than it is today.
The soil alone renews itself, endures patiently,
and is capable of yielding increasing rewards to
industry as agriculture conforms more closely to
the principles that science and experience have
developed. The products of the earth and the
population of the earth may increase together, so
that the one will support the other. It is the sole
escape from the melancholy conclusion to which
Malthus was forced long ago because, in his time,
the possibilities of modern soil culture were not
understood.

Here, then, is the problem, here the labor for
a Farmers’ Congress. This is your work. You

12

must show how to make good the scarcity of food
supply. To this occupation the country must look
not only for bread but for employment, for the
means of advancement, for stability of institu-
tions and for individual happiness. The farmer
must furnish an additional $600,000,000 which we
have seen will be necessary by 1950 to sustain the
people. The task is stupendous. Yet it will not
be found very difficult if we go to work in the right
way.

I have stated the national problem in terms of
wheat; its solution admits of similar statement.
The average yield of wheat per acre in the United
States in 1907 was 14 bushels. The average for
the last ten years has been 13.88. That is, in 1907
it required 45,211,000 acres to produce the 634,-
087,000 bushels that we raised. It is a disgrace-
ful record. About a century ago this was the av-
erage production per acre of Great Britain. Aft-
er the appointment of a Royal Commission and
a campaign for better methods of cultivation be-
gun over a hundred years ago, today the fields of
the United Kingdom, tilled for a thousand years,
in a climate whose excessive moisture is unfavor-
able to the wheat farmer, yield over 32 bushels of
wheat per acre. Germany, an agricultural coun-
try almost since the time of Tacitus, produces
27.6 bushels per acre. Suppose that the United
States produced 28 bushels, or double its present
showing. That would be no extraordinary record,

13

in view of what European countries have done
with inferior soils and less favorable climates. It
would have added 634,000,000 bushels to our pro-
duct last year. Here we perceive the answer to
the question that the future asks. Here we see
how the 200,000,000 people or thereabouts in the
vear 1950 are to be fed. Here we see where the
money must come from for our national support.
It must be earned by and paid to the farmers of
this country. Only thus may we escape an eco-
nomic calamity more threatening and more real
than the people realize. It will not come by wish-
ing for it or by law-making or in any other way
than through labor intelligently applied. It im-
plies a greatly different agriculture from that
which now prevails.

To reach an average yield of from twenty to
thirty bushels of wheat per acre in this country
is as feasible as to increase capital by lending
money at interest. How it may be done has been
explained so often and is today so thoroughly
taught in every agricultural college and at every
experiment station in the country that one almost
hesitates to repeat it. I am not now referring
to market gardening or the intensive agriculture
properly so-called by which marvelous results have
been obtained, which, in the Island of Jersey gives
an annual income of $250 per acre. It is possible
to grow from 1,000 to 2,000 grains of wheat from
a single grain of seed. There are rumors of ex-

14

periments in Russia with deep planting that leave
this far behind, and even hint at transforming
the wheat plant into a perennial. But leaving
these extremes to the enthusiast or the experi-
menter, we can double our wheat yield by nothing
more difficult than a better system of farming.
The essentials of it are a study of soils and seeds,
so as to adapt one to the other; a diversification
of industry, including the cultivation of different
crops and the raising of live stock; a careful ro-
tation of crops, so that the land will not be worn
out by successive years of single cropping; intel-
ligent fertilizing by this system of rotation, by
cultivating leguminous plants and above all by
the economy and use of every particle of fertiliz-
ing material from the stock barns and yards; a
careful selection of grain used for seed; and, first
of all in importance, the substitution of the small
farm, thoroughly tilled, for the large farm, with
its weeds, its neglected corners, its abused soil
and its thin product. The last makes room for
the new population, whose added product will help
to restore our place as an exporter of foodstuffs.
The fruit farmer, the truck farmer, every culti-
vator of the soil who has specialized his work has
learned to put these rules into practice as a mat-
ter of course. How to impress their force upon
the thirty million or more persons who cultivate
the land in this country is the problem. It is no

longer one of method. Science has settled that,
15

and is adding more and more of value every year.
It is merely how to move the farmer to apply to
his own profit and the rescue of the nation the
better methods that are a familiar story.

It should appeal to him that the modern sys-
tem is both a money-maker and a labor-saver.
The cost of rent and production for continuous
wheat cropping averages $7.50 per acre. When,
therefore, the farmer obtains, as so many of those
in the Northwest do, a yield of eight or ten bush-
els per acre, it just about meets, at average farm
prices, the cost of production, leaving him either
nothing at all for his year’s toil or else a margin
of debt. For the same amount of labor, covering
the same time but intelligently applied to a small-
er area, he might easily produce by improved
methods twenty bushels per acre, leaving him a
profit of over $12. The not unreasonable yield
of 28 bushels would net him $20, which is ten per
cent on a valuation of $200 per acre for his land.
This gigantic waste, applying the same measure
to the production of the entire country, is going
on every year. If such associations as this Con-
gress can stop it, it will pay for building two
Panama canals every year; it will in two years
more than pay the estimated expenses of improv-
ing every available waterway in the United States;
it will save more money to the farmer than the
railroads could if they carried all his grain to
market free of charge.

16

What is true of wheat is true of all the other
products of the farm. The splendid work done
in this state where we are met is to the point.
The average yield of corn in Wisconsin has been
raised, by the application of scientific methods,
from 27 to 47 bushels per acre. The new value
thus created in a single state for a single year
amounts to about $15,000,000. I need not go into
other details, because they are similar in kind
and any one may examine them for himself. Such
inerease of the national wealth, such additional
reward for labor waits upon the adoption of the
best methods in every department of agriculture.
Other peoples have been quicker to learn it than
we. Denmark has an area of less than 16,000
Square miles, a little less than one-fifth that of
Minnesota, and a population in 1906 of 2,605,268.
Only 80 per cent of her area is productive, and
her population is 167 per square mile. Yet in
1906 she sent abroad over $80,000,000 worth of
her home product of provisions and eggs. Great
Britain bought from her that year butter to the
amount of $48,000,000 and bacon worth over $21,-
000,000. It is interesting in this connection to
note that, though her population is so dense, there
were in 1905 but 754 men and 69 women in her
penitentiaries.

The Netherlands is a still more closely com-
pacted population of 5,672,237 on an area of 12,-
648 square miles, or 448 per square mile. The

17

advantage of this is that it forces small holdings
and a more thorough tillage. The average wheat
yield in the Netherlands is 34.18 bushels as against
our 14; she produces an average of 53.1 bushels
of oats per acre, where we are satisfied with 23.7
bushels in 1907 and an average of less than 30
bushels for the preceding ten years; her farmers
gather 232 bushels of potatoes from every acre
so planted, while in this country, with soil capa-
ble of fabulous yields, we took in 95.4 bushels
last year and averaged a trifle less than 96 bush-
els for the last six years. The difference between
95 bushels and 230 bushels, at 50 cents a bushel,
is over $60 per acre. Rather a heavy loss to pay
for poor farming! It is not to be wondered at
that the Netherlands hardly larger than a big
county out West, after deducting enough for
home consumption, exported more than $140,000,-
000 worth of cereals, flour, butter and cheese; and
that her people do not have to pay any poor rates.

To such a height we can bring the productivity
of many of our own fields. When we have done
so, and only then, will the specters that haunt our
future vanish and the questions that it now puts
to us receive an answer worthy of men careful of
their future and thoughtful for their race. Ev-
ery respectable authority on agriculture in the
country will indorse this statement. But at pres-
ent we are doing little practically, out on the land,

among the farmers, to accomplish the change, the
18

revolution in ideas and methods that is involved.
It seems to me that this is the paramount duty and
mission of an organization such as this. It could
well afford to throw aside most other issues pre-
sented for its consideration, refuse to spend time
upon alien or abstract questions and concentrate
its energies and resources upon a campaign for
better farming in the United States. For, indeed,
this reform makes way slowly. It required over
half a century in Great Britain to bring it about,
although aided by the influence of the great land-
ed proprietors. It is no new doctrine in this coun-
try. I have been urging the essentials of better
farming upon our whole people at every oppor-
tunity for more than twenty-five years. In all
the agricultural colleges of the country it is taught.
Farmers’ Institutes have done much to make it
known. And still bad methods, soil exhaustion,
skimming the cream of the land by single crop-
ping, are the rule instead of the exception. The
once matchless fields of the Northwest are dete-
riorating. The average wheat yield has fallen on
some of our best land from twenty-five bushels
or more to about twelve. Something must be done
to reverse the process. By constant iteration of
well-established truths, by the appeal to self in-
terest, since the farmer can double his own gains
for the same labor, by endless agitation and pa-
tient instruction the work may be accomplished.
That it must be done is the most important fact
19

confronting us as a nation today. The armed
fleets of an enemy approaching our harbors would
be no more alarming than the relentless advance
of a day when we shall have neither food nor the
means to purchase it for our own population. The
farmers of the nation must save it in the future,
as they have built its greatness in the past.

My suggestion, then, would be that each one
of you individually and this association as a whole
subordinate every activity to the educative idea;
that you expend energy and resources without
stint upon spreading everywhere a knowledge of
the necessity, the feasibility and the financial profit
of improved farming methods. Work with your
senators and representatives, and with your state
legislatures, if necessary, for the establishment
of model farms in every congressional district,
and if possible in every agricultural county in
your respective states. Nothing would be so ef-
fective as this practical object lesson. Every
slack farmer would see the contrast between its
fields and his own. Every man with a germ of
intelligence would get more ideas and facts and
insight into methods and the reason for them in
a year by living as a neighbor to a well run model
farm, conducted by an expert in agriculture, than
he would in a lifetime from reading books or
- listening to stump speeches. Above everything
else, send your boys and girls, and insist that the
farmers whom you know and can influence shall

20

send theirs to the agricultural colleges where mod-
ern systems of tillage are taught. The opportu-
nity is ample. There are sixty-three colleges and
universities now receiving aid under acts of con-
gress aS a condition of maintaining a course in
agriculture. Keep them, if you possibly can, good
agricultural schools, and save them from the temp-
tation of trying to ape the airs of the university.
They are today the most useful, the most fruit-
ful educational institutions in the country. See
that the children of the farm go where they will
not be taught to despise the soil or long for a fu-
ture freed from its labors; but will learn the fact,
now being fully understood, that the right kind of
farming offers scope for the keenest intelligence,
occupation for the most active brain and oppor-
tunity and reward for the highest ambition.
After all it is to the next generation mainly that
we must look for the transformation of our great-
est and most vital industry, though something may
be done with this. In both fields, the man who as-
sumes to be the farmer’s friend or hold his inter-
ests dear will constitute himself a missionary of
the new dispensation. It is an act of patriotic
service to the country. It is a contribution to the
welfare of all humanity, and will strengthen the
pillars of a government that must otherwise waver
in some popular upheaval when the land shall no
longer sustain the multiplying children that its
bosom bears. It is a high commission that is offer-
21

ed to you. By accepting it you will confer new dig-
nity, worth and satisfaction upon the calling in
whose name you are gathered here, and help to
garner health and comfort and happiness and an
opportunity greater than our own for the coming
millions; who are no strangers or invaders, but
our own children’s children, who will pass judg-
ment upon us according to what we have made of
the world in which their lot is to be east.

29
22

HD Hill, James Jerome

1765 Address delivered by
1908 Mr. James J, Hill before the
H5 Farmers' national congress

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